美國鋁公司 (AA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to James Dwyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎來到美國鋁業公司 2022 年第四季度收益演示和電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 James Dwyer。請繼續。

Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by Roy Harvey, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer; and William Oplinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Roy and Bill.

謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。今天，美鋁公司總裁兼首席執行官羅伊·哈維 (Roy Harvey) 加入了我的行列；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 William Oplinger。我們將在 Roy 和 Bill 發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與受各種假設和警告約束的未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述。可能導致公司實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示文稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. Finally, as previously announced, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website. With that, here's Roy.

此外，我們在本演示文稿中包含了一些非 GAAP 財務指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施的調節可以在今天的報告的附錄中找到。在我們今天的討論中提到的任何 EBITDA 都是指調整後的 EBITDA。最後，如前所述，收益發布和幻燈片演示可在我們的網站上獲取。有了這個，這是羅伊。

Thank you, Jim, and thanks to everyone for joining our call today. As you saw from the fourth quarter and full year results that we released today, we returned $572 million in capital to our stockholders through buybacks and dividend payments in 2022. We continue to be well positioned with a strong balance sheet, ending the year with $1.4 billion in cash and proportional net debt of $1.2 billion.

謝謝你，吉姆，感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。正如您從我們今天發布的第四季度和全年業績中看到的那樣，我們在 2022 年通過回購和股息支付向股東返還了 5.72 億美元的資本。我們繼續憑藉強勁的資產負債表處於有利地位，年底為 1.4 美元億美元的現金和 12 億美元的比例淨債務。

In 2022, we also progressed strategic restarts of capacity and worked to mitigate the impact of high energy costs. That said, it was a challenging year. World events influenced costs for raw materials and energy. Our markets saw significant variances in pricing between the first half of the year and the second half, demonstrating once again why we are so focused on reducing complexity and continuing our improvement initiatives. As we progress through this year, we will continue to act to drive operational and commercial excellence, disciplined execution and rigorous cost management.

2022 年，我們還推進了戰略性產能重啟，並努力減輕高能源成本的影響。也就是說，這是充滿挑戰的一年。世界大事影響了原材料和能源的成本。我們的市場在今年上半年和下半年之間出現了顯著的定價差異，再次證明了為什麼我們如此專注於降低複雜性和繼續我們的改進計劃。隨著今年的進展，我們將繼續採取行動，推動卓越的運營和商業、嚴格的執行和嚴格的成本管理。

Before we get into more details though, I want to emphasize, as always, our most important priority, safety. We strive to protect the safety and health of those who work at our facilities or visit them. In 2022, we did not have any workplace fatalities. This, however, is not an achievement. It is simply an expectation. And we always have areas where we can and will improve. We recognize that maintaining a fatality-free workplace requires constant vigilance to identify and eliminate critical risks. In fact, every employee at Alcoa has the authority and my permission to stop a job and seek help if they are unsure if it's safe to proceed. There's never any production goal that will take priority over safety.

不過，在我們深入了解更多細節之前，我想一如既往地強調我們最重要的優先事項——安全。我們努力保護在我們設施工作或參觀的人員的安全和健康。 2022 年，我們沒有發生任何工作場所死亡事故。然而，這並不是一項成就。這只是一種期望。我們總是有可以改進的領域。我們認識到，要保持無死亡事故的工作場所，就需要時刻保持警惕，以識別和消除關鍵風險。事實上，如果 Alcoa 的每一位員工不確定繼續工作是否安全，他們都有權和我的許可停止工作並尋求幫助。從來沒有任何生產目標會優先於安全。

Now on to our financial results. In the fourth quarter, we had a net loss of $374 million and $29 million in adjusted EBITDA. For full year 2022, we had a net loss of $102 million and adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion. It is clear from our fourth quarter results that we are confronting a challenging market and operational situation, and we are taking action to be sure that we are firmly focused on driving improvements across our operations and company.

現在談談我們的財務業績。第四季度，我們的淨虧損為 3.74 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 2900 萬美元。 2022 年全年，我們的淨虧損為 1.02 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 22 億美元。從我們第四季度的業績中可以清楚地看出，我們正面臨著充滿挑戰的市場和運營形勢，我們正在採取行動以確保我們堅定地專注於推動我們的運營和公司的改進。

Bill, who will become our Chief Operating Officer on February 1, will provide the full detail on our financial results in just a moment. Incidentally, this will be Bill's last earnings call as our Chief Financial Officer. Molly Beerman, our current Senior Vice President and Controller, is being promoted to CFO. She has tremendous financial experience and has been a strong leader for Alcoa. She'll join me for our earnings calls beginning in April as she takes over Bill's former role and he takes his skill and experience to operations.

比爾將於 2 月 1 日成為我們的首席運營官，他將在稍後提供我們財務業績的全部細節。順便說一句，這將是比爾作為我們的首席財務官的最後一次財報電話會議。我們現任高級副總裁兼財務總監 Molly Beerman 將晉升為首席財務官。她擁有豐富的財務經驗，是美國鋁業公司強有力的領導者。從 4 月開始，她將與我一起參加我們的財報電話會議，屆時她將接替 Bill 之前的職位，而 Bill 則將他的技能和經驗運用到運營中。

Now turning to some operational highlights. Last year, we advanced several restarts that will bring economic value to the business. We also acted swiftly to reduce production capacity when and where conditions warranted. Last month, we completed the safe restart at our Portland aluminum joint venture smelter in the state of Victoria in Australia. And we continued to advance the restart of the Alumar smelter in Brazil.

現在轉向一些操作要點。去年，我們推進了幾次重啟，這將為企業帶來經濟價值。我們還迅速採取行動，在條件允許的情況下削減產能。上個月，我們在澳大利亞維多利亞州的波特蘭鋁合資冶煉廠完成了安全重啟。我們繼續推進巴西Alumar冶煉廠的重啟。

To mitigate the rising cost of gas and electricity, we reduced output at the San Ciprián Alumina refinery in Spain and curtailed 1/3 of production at our Lista aluminum smelter in Norway. Separately, over these last couple of weeks, we adjusted production at the smallest of our 3 refineries in Western Australia due to natural gas shortages that continue to persist in the region.

為了緩解不斷上漲的天然氣和電力成本，我們降低了西班牙 San Ciprián Alumina 精煉廠的產量，並削減了挪威 Lista 鋁冶煉廠 1/3 的產量。另外，在過去的幾周里，由於該地區持續存在的天然氣短缺，我們調整了西澳大利亞 3 家煉油廠中最小的一家的產量。

We have a strong foundation across this company with the know-how and expertise to drive continued improvement. We are ready to address short-term challenges while remaining focused on our future, one where aluminum will become even more important as the world works to decarbonize.

我們在這家公司擁有堅實的基礎，擁有推動持續改進的專業知識和專業知識。我們已準備好應對短期挑戰，同時繼續關注我們的未來，隨著世界致力於脫碳，鋁將變得更加重要。

As we progress into the year, it's also worth reinforcing the work we are doing on our ESG objectives. Alcoa has a clear purpose and a vision that guides our actions and decision-making. We are producing and delivering products that support our customers' own sustainability ambitions, and we are creating shared value for our communities and our other stakeholders. Just recently, in fact, we were once again named a top-tier industry producer by the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices.

隨著我們進入這一年，加強我們在 ESG 目標方面所做的工作也很值得。 Alcoa 有明確的目標和願景來指導我們的行動和決策。我們正在生產和提供支持客戶自身可持續發展目標的產品，我們正在為我們的社區和其他利益相關者創造共享價值。事實上，就在最近，我們再次被道瓊斯可持續發展指數評為頂級行業生產商。

We also continue to pursue growth opportunities via projects that can creep our production. And we're excited about the progressing development of our transformative technologies, which align fully with our vision to reinvent the aluminum industry for a sustainable future. So with that, let's dive into the numbers. Bill, please go ahead.

我們還通過可能影響我們生產的項目繼續尋求增長機會。我們對我們變革性技術的不斷發展感到興奮，這完全符合我們重塑鋁工業以實現可持續未來的願景。因此，讓我們深入研究這些數字。比爾，請繼續。

Fourth quarter 2022 revenues declined $188 million compared to the third quarter to $2.7 billion on lower aluminum and alumina prices. At this point in the cycle, input costs were not yet declining and the result for the fourth quarter was a net loss of $374 million or $2.12 per share. Special items in the quarter totaled $251 million and included $196 million of tax items, primarily related to a valuation allowance on Brazilian deferred tax assets, $30 million of smelter restart costs and $26 million from mark-to-market energy contracts.

由於鋁和氧化鋁價格下跌，2022 年第四季度的收入比第三季度減少 1.88 億美元，至 27 億美元。在周期的這一點上，投入成本尚未下降，第四季度的結果是淨虧損 3.74 億美元或每股 2.12 美元。本季度的特殊項目總計 2.51 億美元，包括 1.96 億美元的稅收項目，主要與巴西遞延稅資產的估值津貼、3000 萬美元的冶煉廠重啟成本和 2600 萬美元的按市值計算的能源合同有關。

After special items, adjusted net loss was $123 million or $0.70 per share. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, was $29 million. For the full year 2022, year-over-year revenues increased $299 million to $12.5 billion, and net income decreased $531 million to a loss of $102 million or $0.57 per share. Adjusted net income changed from $1.3 billion in 2021 to $890 million in 2022 or $4.83 per share, and adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, moved from $2.8 billion to $2.2 billion.

扣除特殊項目後，調整後的淨虧損為 1.23 億美元或每股 0.70 美元。調整後的 EBITDA（不包括特殊項目）為 2900 萬美元。 2022 年全年收入同比增長 2.99 億美元至 125 億美元，淨收入減少 5.31 億美元至虧損 1.02 億美元或每股虧損 0.57 美元。調整後的淨收入從 2021 年的 13 億美元變為 2022 年的 8.9 億美元或每股 4.83 美元，調整後的 EBITDA（不包括特殊項目）從 28 億美元變為 22 億美元。

Let's take a closer look at the quarterly change in EBITDA. For fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA compared to the third quarter, the largest driver of the decline was $98 million of lower metal and alumina prices and includes higher raw material costs and higher production costs in alumina and aluminum. Energy improved $9 million as substantial Lista smelter and San Ciprián refinery improvements were partially offset by CO2 compensation adjustments in Norway of $35 million. Thanks to actions taken at the Lista smelter and the San Ciprián refinery, Lista and San Ciprián EBITDA improved to combined $67 million compared to the prior quarter. The other category is comprised primarily of a $25 million ARO charge in Brazil and $22 million of intersegment eliminations.

讓我們仔細看看 EBITDA 的季度變化。與第三季度相比，第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 下降的最大驅動因素是 9800 萬美元的金屬和氧化鋁價格下降，其中包括更高的原材料成本以及氧化鋁和鋁的更高生產成本。能源增加了 900 萬美元，因為 Lista 冶煉廠和 San Ciprián 煉油廠的重大改進被挪威 3500 萬美元的二氧化碳補償調整部分抵消。得益於對 Lista 冶煉廠和 San Ciprián 煉油廠採取的行動，Lista 和 San Ciprián 的 EBITDA 與上一季度相比增加至 6700 萬美元。另一類主要包括巴西的 2500 萬美元 ARO 費用和 2200 萬美元的部門間抵銷。

In the segments, Bauxite improved $9 million on better volume, favorable foreign currency and broad cost improvement. In the Alumina segment, the $42 million EBITDA decline was due to lower index prices as well as a $25 million charge to increase the ARO reserves at Alumar, partially offset by the $27 million improvement from the San Ciprián partial curtailment. In Aluminum, the $121 million EBITDA change was due primarily to lower metal prices but also due to broadly higher costs, partially offset by favorable foreign currency and lower alumina costs. Below the segment level, transformation, intersegment eliminations and other corporate expenses increased a total of $27 million.

在這些細分市場中，鋁土礦因銷量增加、外匯有利和廣泛的成本改善而增加了 900 萬美元。在氧化鋁部門，4200 萬美元的 EBITDA 下降是由於較低的指數價格以及 2500 萬美元的費用以增加 Alumar 的 ARO 儲備，部分被 San Ciprián 部分削減帶來的 2700 萬美元的改善所抵消。在鋁業，1.21 億美元的 EBITDA 變化主要是由於金屬價格下降，但也由於普遍較高的成本，部分被有利的外彙和較低的氧化鋁成本所抵消。在部門層面以下，轉型、部門間抵銷和其他公司費用共增加了 2700 萬美元。

Let's move to cash flow. The fourth quarter cash balance declined $69 million sequentially to $1.36 billion as releases of working capital, CO2 credits received and quarterly EBITDA did not fully fund outflows. Capital expenditures, cash income taxes and environmental and ARO spending were the largest uses of cash in the quarter. Dividends paid were $17 million. On a full year 2022 basis, uses outpaced sources by $451 million. Our largest use of cash was returning capital to stockholders, followed by cash income taxes, capital expenditures and increased working capital.

讓我們轉向現金流。第四季度現金餘額環比下降 6900 萬美元，至 13.6 億美元，原因是釋放的營運資金、收到的二氧化碳減排額度和季度 EBITDA 沒有為資金流出提供全部資金。資本支出、現金所得稅以及環境和 ARO 支出是本季度最大的現金用途。支付的股息為 1700 萬美元。在 2022 年全年的基礎上，使用超過 4.51 億美元的資源。我們最大的現金用途是向股東返還資本，其次是現金所得稅、資本支出和增加營運資本。

Now for our key metrics at year-end. Return on equity for the full year 2022 was 17.2%. In 2022, we returned $572 million of capital to investors, $500 million of share repurchases and $72 million of quarterly dividends. The balance sheet finished with proportional adjusted net debt of $1.2 billion, while DWC working capital improved $111 million sequentially, primarily due to higher accounts payable. Lower revenues kept days working capital flat at 50 days. Free cash flow less net noncontrolling interest distributions was negative $49 million in the fourth quarter, and the full year 2022 number was positive $177 million.

現在是我們年底的關鍵指標。 2022 年全年的股本回報率為 17.2%。 2022 年，我們向投資者返還了 5.72 億美元的資本、5 億美元的股票回購和 7200 萬美元的季度股息。資產負債表按比例調整後的淨債務為 12 億美元，而 DWC 營運資本環比增加 1.11 億美元，這主要是由於應付賬款增加。較低的收入使營運資金天數保持在 50 天不變。第四季度自由現金流減去淨非控制性權益分配為負 4900 萬美元，2022 年全年為正 1.77 億美元。

Let's take a closer look at the cash and liquidity position. We are proud of the improvements we've made to our cash and liquidity position. In the 3 charts you see over time are cash position, debt maturities and key cash outflows. Year-end 2022 cash on the balance sheet was a substantial $1.4 billion, consistent with the average level for the previous 5 year-ends. After redeeming higher rate debt with maturities in 2024 and 2026, our debt has a lower rate and scheduled maturities are inconsequential until 2027. Our revolving credit facility has improved terms, has been extended to 2027 and has no borrowings against it. Pension and OPEB cash needs were low in 2022 and are expected to remain low in 2023 and beyond and are now mostly OPEB, which as you know, is pay as you go.

讓我們仔細看看現金和流動性狀況。我們為我們對現金和流動性狀況所做的改善感到自豪。在您看到的 3 個圖表中，隨著時間的推移，現金頭寸、債務到期日和主要現金流出。 2022 年末資產負債表上的現金為 14 億美元，與前 5 年末的平均水平一致。在贖回 2024 年和 2026 年到期的高利率債務後，我們的債務利率較低，預定到期日在 2027 年之前都是無關緊要的。我們的循環信貸安排改善了條款，已延長至 2027 年，並且沒有借貸。養老金和 OPEB 現金需求在 2022 年很低，預計在 2023 年及以後仍將保持低位，現在主要是 OPEB，如您所知，即付即付。

Turning to our 2023 outlook. First, we are simplifying our reporting structure for 2023. Beginning in January 2023, the company will combine its Bauxite and Alumina segments and report its financial results in 2 segments: Alumina and Aluminum. In future reports, segment information for prior periods will be updated to reflect the new segment structure. In 2023, we expect alumina shipments to range between 12.7 million and 12.9 million metric tons due to lower refinery production, driven by the partial curtailment of the San Ciprián refinery and lower bauxite quality at the Australian refineries.

轉向我們的 2023 年展望。首先，我們正在簡化 2023 年的報告結構。從 2023 年 1 月開始，公司將合併其鋁土礦和氧化鋁部門，並報告其兩個部門的財務業績：氧化鋁和鋁。在未來的報告中，前期的分部信息將被更新以反映新的分部結構。到 2023 年，我們預計氧化鋁出貨量將在 1270 萬至 1290 萬公噸之間，這是由於 San Ciprián 煉油廠部分減產和澳大利亞煉油廠鋁土礦質量下降導致煉油廠產量下降。

The Aluminum segment is expected to ship between 2.5 million and 2.6 million metric tons as increased production at Alumar and Portland is offset by lower buy-resell activity and modern shipments. In EBITDA items outside the Alumina and Aluminum segments, we expect transformation costs to increase to $80 million on higher demolition expense and other corporate expense to be virtually unchanged from 2022 at $130 million.

由於 Alumar 和波特蘭產量的增加被較低的買賣活動和現代出貨量所抵消，預計鋁部門的出貨量將在 250 萬至 260 萬公噸之間。在氧化鋁和鋁業務以外的 EBITDA 項目中，我們預計轉型成本將增加至 8000 萬美元，原因是拆除費用增加，而其他公司費用從 2022 年開始幾乎保持不變，為 1.3 億美元。

Below EBITDA, we expect depreciation to increase to $645 million primarily due to the weaker U.S. dollar. Nonoperating pension and OPEB expense is expected to improve $45 million to $15 million and $110 million interest expense is comparable to 2022's level. For cash flow impacts, we expect 2023 pension and OPEB required cash funding to be similar to 2022 at $75 million. The majority of that spend is U.S. OPEB. Our current capital expenditure estimate is $115 million of return-seeking and $485 million of sustaining capital, and we will continue to review it based on market conditions. We expect $150 million lower prior-period income tax payments in 2023, down to $175 million. Environmental and ARO spending is expected to increase to approximately $195 million. Finally, capital returns to stockholders will be aligned with our capital allocation framework.

低於 EBITDA，我們預計折舊將增加至 6.45 億美元，這主要是由於美元疲軟。非營業養老金和 OPEB 支出預計將增加 4500 萬美元至 1500 萬美元，1.1 億美元的利息支出與 2022 年的水平相當。對於現金流影響，我們預計 2023 年養老金和 OPEB 所需的現金資金與 2022 年相似，為 7500 萬美元。大部分支出是美國 OPEB。我們目前的資本支出估計是 1.15 億美元的尋求回報和 4.85 億美元的維持資本，我們將繼續根據市場情況進行審查。我們預計 2023 年的前期所得稅支付將減少 1.5 億美元，降至 1.75 億美元。環境和 ARO 支出預計將增加到約 1.95 億美元。最後，股東的資本回報將與我們的資本分配框架保持一致。

Looking specifically at adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items for the first quarter and excluding impacts from index sales prices or foreign currency. In Alumina, we expect approximately $25 million higher costs from a Western Australia gas supply disruption to be offset by the nonrecurrence of the Alumar ARO adjustment. In Aluminum, we expect alumina cost to be favorable by $15 million. We also expect Norwegian smelter costs to be favorable by $70 million from the nonrecurrence of CO2 credit adjustments and lower energy costs. Additionally, we expect $15 million lower raw material costs and $15 million lower production costs.

特別關注調整後的 EBITDA，不包括第一季度的特殊項目，不包括指數銷售價格或外幣的影響。在 Alumina，我們預計西澳大利亞天然氣供應中斷造成的成本增加約 2500 萬美元，將被不再發生的 Alumar ARO 調整所抵消。在鋁方面，我們預計氧化鋁成本將有利 1500 萬美元。我們還預計，挪威冶煉廠成本將從不再發生的 CO2 信用調整和較低的能源成本中節省 7000 萬美元。此外，我們預計原材料成本降低 1500 萬美元，生產成本降低 1500 萬美元。

Below EBITDA, other expense is expected to be unfavorable by $45 million sequentially on equity contributions to ELYSIS and lower modern equity income. Based on recent pricing, the company expects 1Q '23 operational tax expense to approximate $5 million to $15 million. Beyond the first quarter of 2023, the company is reducing the available alumina grade at the Huntly mine to provide additional time for an extended mining approvals process. This grade change is isolated to the Huntly mine that supplies the Pinjarra and Kwinana refineries.

在 EBITDA 之下，其他費用預計將連續不利 4500 萬美元，因為對 ELYSIS 的股權貢獻和較低的現代股權收入。根據最近的定價，該公司預計 23 年第一季度的運營稅費用約為 500 萬至 1500 萬美元。 2023 年第一季度之後，該公司將降低 Huntly 礦的可用氧化鋁品位，以便為延長的採礦審批流程提供更多時間。這種品位變化與為 Pinjarra 和 Kwinana 煉油廠供貨的 Huntly 礦區分開來。

Operating the refineries with lower-quality bauxite decreases alumina output and increases input costs. Starting in the second quarter of 2023 and continuing through the fourth quarter of 2023, we expect lower Alumina segment adjusted EBITDA of approximately $55 million per quarter in comparison to the fourth quarter of 2022, after excluding $35 million of nonrecurrence for the Alumar refinery ARO adjustment and certain other nonrecurring expenses in the fourth quarter of 2022. Now I'll turn it back to Roy.

使用質量較低的鋁土礦運營精煉廠會降低氧化鋁產量並增加投入成本。從 2023 年第二季度開始，一直持續到 2023 年第四季度，我們預計與 2022 年第四季度相比，氧化鋁部門調整後的 EBITDA 每季度約為 5500 萬美元，其中不包括 Alumar 煉油廠 ARO 調整的 3500 萬美元非經常性費用以及 2022 年第四季度的某些其他非經常性支出。現在我將把它轉回給羅伊。

Thanks, Bill. Next, I'd like to provide some brief commentary about the current global market environment for alumina and aluminum in 2022. Even given the clear change in pricing from first to second half of 2022, these markets were balanced or even in a slight deficit across the year. But differently than we have seen in previous cycles, the cost for raw materials have remained stubbornly high throughout the year, and it is only here in the beginning of 2023 where we are starting to see some minor relief in market pricing.

謝謝，比爾。接下來，我想對 2022 年當前全球氧化鋁和鋁的市場環境做一些簡短的評論。即使考慮到 2022 年上半年到下半年的價格變化明顯，這些市場在整個市場仍然處於平衡甚至略有逆差的狀態。那一年。但與我們在之前的周期中看到的不同，原材料成本全年都居高不下，直到 2023 年初，我們才開始看到市場定價略有緩解。

In fact, we saw some of our highest-ever costs for raw materials in the second half. All direct materials increased in price since the end of 2021, driven by multiple raw material supply disruptions that have kept market balances tight. In Alumina, we saw a 39% increase in the market price for caustic soda in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. Caustic soda is used in the digesters in our refineries. In Aluminum, we saw more than a 70% increase for the market price of pitch and a nearly 30% increase for coke compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Both products are used to make anodes for our smelters.

事實上，我們在下半年看到了一些有史以來最高的原材料成本。自 2021 年底以來，所有直接材料的價格都上漲，原因是多次原材料供應中斷導致市場收緊。在氧化鋁方面，我們看到 2022 年第四季度燒鹼的市場價格與 2021 年同期相比上漲了 39%。燒鹼用於我們煉油廠的蒸煮器。在鋁業，與 2021 年第四季度相比，我們發現瀝青的市場價格上漲了 70% 以上，焦炭的市場價格上漲了近 30%。這兩種產品都用於為我們的冶煉廠製造陽極。

Meanwhile, recent smelter curtailments announced across the U.S. and Europe have only marginally influenced calcined coke prices. We have, however, mitigated supply chain disruptions by maintaining an agile and diversified global sourcing portfolio, which also closely manages our inventories to avoid market-driven supply disruptions.

與此同時，最近美國和歐洲宣布的冶煉廠減產對煅燒焦價格的影響很小。然而，我們通過維持敏捷和多元化的全球採購組合減輕了供應鏈中斷，該組合還密切管理我們的庫存以避免市場驅動的供應中斷。

As far as global supply-demand balances, the market for alumina was mostly balanced in 2022. And in aluminum, the global market was in a deficit, including in China and the rest of the world. China has continued to enforce its 45 million metric ton smelting cap, and we saw approximately 2.5 million annualized metric tons of smelting capacity curtailed in the country in 2022 due to power constraints in southern provinces. And we entered 2023 with the likely constructive impacts of a loosened COVID policy in China and the increased application of stimulus measures in China and globally.

就全球供需平衡而言，氧化鋁市場在 2022 年基本平衡。而在鋁方面，全球市場處於短缺狀態，包括中國和世界其他地區。中國繼續執行其 4500 萬公噸的冶煉上限，由於南方省份的電力限制，我們看到 2022 年全國約有 250 萬公噸的年化冶煉產能被削減。進入 2023 年，中國放寬 COVID 政策可能產生建設性影響，刺激措施在中國和全球範圍內的應用增加。

Next, let's spend a bit more time on what we're currently seeing in aluminum over a longer time horizon. We continue to see evidence that supports our positive view on aluminum. Although 2022 was an unusual year with global events influencing energy and raw material costs, we remain bullish on the long-term fundamentals for aluminum. Even in a challenging market like what we saw during the second half of last year, there was continued evidence of the growth of aluminum demand for the future.

接下來，讓我們花更多時間了解我們目前在更長的時間範圍內看到的鋁。我們繼續看到支持我們對鋁的積極看法的證據。儘管 2022 年是不尋常的一年，全球事件影響了能源和原材料成本，但我們仍然看好鋁的長期基本面。即使在我們去年下半年看到的充滿挑戰的市場中，也有持續的證據表明未來鋁需求的增長。

Let me illustrate this point with 2 of aluminum's end-use markets, transportation and packaging. Since Alcoa became an independent company in 2016, these 2 sectors have experienced significant growth rates. First, the share of electric and hybrid vehicles is on a solid trajectory to experience nearly a sevenfold growth rate in a 6-year period by 2023. These vehicles contain more aluminum in their construction versus traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Electric vehicles, for example, contain approximately 40% more aluminum.

讓我用鋁的兩個最終用途市場、運輸和包裝來說明這一點。自美鋁於 2016 年成為獨立公司以來，這兩個行業都經歷了顯著的增長。首先，到 2023 年，電動汽車和混合動力汽車的份額將在 6 年內實現近 7 倍的增長。與傳統的內燃機汽車相比，這些汽車的結構中含有更多的鋁。例如，電動汽車所含的鋁要多出大約 40%。

Several recent reports from industry analysts have reported on this strong growth for EVs, which is occurring even faster than some had earlier predicted. And key auto manufacturers such as BMW and Ford have taken significant steps to increase their mix of battery electric vehicles relative to their total output.

行業分析師最近的幾份報告報告了電動汽車的強勁增長，其增長速度甚至比一些人此前預測的還要快。寶馬和福特等主要汽車製造商已採取重大措施，增加純電動汽車在總產量中的佔比。

At the same time, China, the largest automobile market in the world, saw one of the largest year-over-year increases in 2022 electric vehicle production with 6.9 million units confirmed. Current estimates would add an additional 2.1 million new electric vehicles to be produced in China in 2023, bringing that total to 9 million units on an annual basis. The transition to these vehicles is also supported by several major countries and regions that have announced bans on new internal combustion car sales in the years between 2030 and 2040, including the U.K., France and Canada.

與此同時，中國作為全球最大的汽車市場，2022 年電動汽車產量同比增幅最大，已確認 690 萬輛。目前的估計將使中國在 2023 年額外生產 210 萬輛新電動汽車，使每年的總產量達到 900 萬輛。向這些車輛的過渡也得到了幾個主要國家和地區的支持，這些國家和地區已宣佈在 2030 年至 2040 年期間禁止銷售新的內燃機汽車，包括英國、法國和加拿大。

The second market to watch is packaging, which is expected to see a 41% growth rate in aluminum can stock consumption between 2016 and 2023. For Alcoa, packaging was one of our best-performing markets in 2022 in Europe and North America. Also, more beverage products are using aluminum such as alcoholic seltzers and sparkling waters due to the metal's lightweight, infinite recyclability and ability to chill beverages quickly. While these markets are meant to be examples, they support continued strength in aluminum demand in the long term.

第二個值得關注的市場是包裝，預計 2016 年至 2023 年鋁罐庫存消費量將增長 41%。對於美鋁而言，包裝是我們 2022 年在歐洲和北美表現最好的市場之一。此外，由於金屬重量輕、無限可回收性以及快速冷卻飲料的能力，越來越多的飲料產品正在使用鋁，例如酒精蘇打水和蘇打水。雖然這些市場只是作為例子，但從長遠來看，它們支持鋁需求的持續強勁。

Now let's move to the right-hand portion of the slide. Given the importance of Chinese capacity growth over the last decade, one of the most influential factors for this next decade will be China's self-imposed 45 million metric ton cap. We see continued policy decisions and actions in China further supporting this capacity cap. Any increase in that ceiling would hinder the country's well-publicized goals for energy efficiency and decarbonization. While we expect an increase in operating capacity of roughly 1 million tons of metal in 2023 compared to last year, these are added capacities that either transfer existing operating permits from plants that will be shuttered or have outstanding permits complying with the Chinese cap. We've also recently seen China's actions to limit exports of primary aluminum through increased export tariffs on commodity-grade aluminum in 2023, supporting the reality of the country's capacity cap.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片的右側部分。鑑於過去十年中國產能增長的重要性，未來十年最具影響力的因素之一將是中國自行設定的 4500 萬公噸上限。我們看到中國持續的政策決定和行動進一步支持這一產能上限。上限的任何提高都會阻礙該國廣為人知的能源效率和脫碳目標。雖然我們預計 2023 年的金屬運營能力將比去年增加約 100 萬噸，但這些新增產能要么是從將要關閉的工廠轉移現有運營許可證，要么是擁有符合中國上限的未完成許可證。我們最近還看到中國在 2023 年通過提高商品級鋁的出口關稅來限制原鋁出口的行動，支持了該國產能上限的現實。

One final point to make on this slide. With the drop in global stocks over the last 6 years, inventories in 2023 are expected to remain near historically low levels of 49 days of consumption. The 10-year average has been 77 days and stood at 70 days of global inventories in 2016, the year we launched as a stand-alone company. Relative to annual consumption, the projected stock levels in 2023 could be insufficient if we see a rebound from current demand growth figures in China or the rest of the world. This adds support to both the short- and long-term outlook for aluminum. While there continues to be significant uncertainties about the global economy in 2023, we continue to expect another year that will remain in relative balance for aluminum. And even more importantly, the underlying fundamentals continue to remain very favorable for aluminum in the long term.

關於這張幻燈片的最後一點。隨著過去 6 年全球庫存的下降，預計 2023 年的庫存將保持在 49 天消費的歷史低位附近。 10 年平均值為 77 天，2016 年全球庫存為 70 天，那一年我們作為獨立公司成立。相對於年消費量，如果我們看到中國或世界其他地區當前的需求增長數據出現反彈，那麼 2023 年的預計庫存水平可能會不足。這為鋁的短期和長期前景增加了支撐。儘管 2023 年全球經濟仍存在重大不確定性，但我們繼續預計鋁價將在下一年保持相對平衡。更重要的是，從長遠來看，潛在的基本面繼續對鋁非常有利。

Now let's talk specifically about some of the important actions Alcoa completed in 2022 to advance our strategy while also addressing the challenges of a volatile market. First, we worked to offset negative market impacts at some of our locations, including the high cost of energy in Europe, which skyrocketed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We partially curtailed 2 facilities, adjusting our production rates to San Ciprián alumina refinery in Spain due to high cost of natural gas. And we curtailed 1 of 3 potlines at Lista in Norway, our smallest aluminum smelter due to high electricity costs.

現在讓我們具體談談美鋁公司在 2022 年完成的一些重要行動，以推進我們的戰略，同時應對市場動蕩的挑戰。首先，我們努力抵消我們一些地點的負面市場影響，包括歐洲的高能源成本，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後能源成本飆升。由於天然氣成本高，我們部分削減了 2 個設施，將我們的生產率調整到西班牙的 San Ciprián 氧化鋁精煉廠。由於電力成本高，我們縮減了挪威 Lista 的 3 條電解槽線中的 1 條，這是我們最小的鋁冶煉廠。

In July of last year, we curtailed 1 potline at Warrick operations due to workforce shortages in the region and increasing instability. And we've continued to maintain that partial curtailment as we focus on safe and consistent production from the site's 2 operating potlines. Also, we are continuing to work toward the planned restart of the San Ciprián smelter. And we've now signed 2 power purchase agreements for wind-based electricity, although permitting will need to be approved by the regional and national Spanish governments before construction can begin.

去年 7 月，由於該地區勞動力短缺和不穩定因素加劇，我們削減了 Warrick 工廠的 1 條生產線。我們繼續保持部分削減，因為我們專注於該站點的 2 個運營電解槽線的安全和一致的生產。此外，我們正在繼續努力按計劃重啟 San Ciprián 冶煉廠。我們現在已經簽署了 2 份風力發電的電力購買協議，儘管在施工開始之前需要獲得西班牙地區和國家政府的批准。

As I mentioned at the top of our call, we also maintained a strong balance sheet, which is essential, especially at a time when there's still a lot of unpredictability in the world. We reduced our pension liabilities in 2022 by completing a $1 billion transfer of liabilities and related assets to a highly rated insurance company for certain U.S. retirees and their beneficiaries. Our strong financial position also enabled us to make dividend payments and share repurchases while achieving an investment-grade rating on our debt and improving our revolving credit facility, which remains untapped.

正如我在電話會議開頭提到的那樣，我們還保持了強勁的資產負債表，這是必不可少的，尤其是在世界上仍然存在很多不可預測性的時候。我們在 2022 年為某些美國退休人員及其受益人完成了將 10 億美元的負債和相關資產轉移到一家評級較高的保險公司，從而減少了我們的養老金負債。我們強大的財務狀況還使我們能夠支付股息和股票回購，同時實現我們債務的投資級評級並改善我們尚未開發的循環信貸額度。

We made significant strides in growing the business as well at locations on 4 continents through capacity restarts and creep projects. In Australia, we safely completed the restart of additional capacity at Portland Aluminum in the state of Victoria. In Europe, we announced a capital project now underway to increase capacity at Mosjøen in Norway by a creep project. In South America, we progressed with our Alumar restart in Brazil, which is powered 100% by hydropower and will capitalize on the integration with the co-located refinery. In North America, our Deschambault smelter is working to increase its casting capacity to add standard-sized ingots to meet increasing demand for foundry alloys in smaller formats.

通過產能重啟和蠕變項目，我們在四大洲的業務增長方面取得了重大進展。在澳大利亞，我們安全地完成了維多利亞州波特蘭鋁業公司額外產能的重啟。在歐洲，我們宣布了一項正在進行的資本項目，以通過蠕變項目提高挪威 Mosjøen 的產能。在南美洲，我們在巴西的 Alumar 重啟取得進展，該項目 100% 由水電供電，並將利用與位於同一地點的煉油廠的整合。在北美，我們的 Deschambault 冶煉廠正在努力提高其鑄造能力，以增加標準尺寸的鑄錠，以滿足對更小尺寸鑄造合金日益增長的需求。

With all these actions, we continue to advance sustainably, both in supplying customers with low-carbon products and advancing our breakthrough technologies. In 2022, we continued to see a significant increase in year-over-year demand for our EcoLum low-carbon aluminum, which is part of our Sustana brand. Sustana is the most extensive suite of low-carbon products in the aluminum industry. While still a relatively small portion of our overall sales volume, we saw increased margins and deliveries of EcoLum in 2022. Our sales of EcoLum, in fact, grew more than 4x over 2021, driven mostly by the European market.

通過所有這些行動，我們在為客戶提供低碳產品和推進我們的突破性技術方面繼續可持續發展。 2022 年，我們繼續看到對 EcoLum 低碳鋁的需求同比顯著增長，這是我們 Sustana 品牌的一部分。 Sustana 是鋁行業中最廣泛的低碳產品系列。雖然在我們的總銷量中仍然只佔相對較小的一部分，但我們看到 2022 年 EcoLum 的利潤率和交付量有所增加。事實上，我們 EcoLum 的銷售額比 2021 年增長了 4 倍以上，這主要是由歐洲市場推動的。

Two examples of customers looking to us for this low carbon metal were Speira, a global aluminum rolling and recycling company; and Hellenic Cables, a large cable producer in Europe with key markets in renewable energy transmission and distribution. We also maintained an increased certifications with the Aluminum Stewardship Initiative, our industry's most comprehensive third-party validation of responsible production. We have 2 additional sites certified to ASI standards in 2022, bringing our total number of sites to 17. We can also market and sell ASI-certified bauxite, alumina and aluminum to customers globally.

向我們尋求這種低碳金屬的兩個客戶例子是全球鋁軋製和回收公司 Speira； Hellenic Cables，歐洲大型電纜生產商，在可再生能源傳輸和分配領域擁有重要市場。我們還通過 Aluminium Stewardship Initiative 獲得了更多的認證，這是我們行業最全面的負責任生產第三方驗證。到 2022 年，我們將新增 2 個通過 ASI 標準認證的工廠，使我們的工廠總數達到 17 個。我們還可以向全球客戶營銷和銷售經 ASI 認證的鋁土礦、氧化鋁和鋁。

Finally, we made progress on our road map of breakthrough technologies. This includes work to decarbonize the alumina refining process through our Refinery of the Future initiative, which has support from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. Also, our ELYSIS joint venture furthered its work to commercialize the carbon-free smelting process first developed at Alcoa's Technical Center.

最後，我們在突破性技術的路線圖上取得了進展。這包括通過我們的未來煉油廠計劃對氧化鋁精煉過程進行脫碳工作，該計劃得到了澳大利亞可再生能源署的支持。此外，我們的 ELYSIS 合資企業進一步推進了其將首先在美鋁技術中心開發的無碳冶煉工藝商業化的工作。

The actions we took in 2022 helped us prepare for the year ahead. As we start this new year, we are laser-focused on further improvement. We will drive operational excellence and rigorous cost management to meet today's challenges while working to promote future growth. We are developing opportunities to create growth via improved margins as a producer of low-carbon products, and our breakthrough technologies provide opportunities that can set us apart from others in the industry.

我們在 2022 年採取的行動幫助我們為來年做好了準備。在新的一年開始之際，我們專注於進一步改進。我們將推動卓越運營和嚴格的成本管理，以應對當今的挑戰，同時努力促進未來的增長。作為低碳產品生產商，我們正在尋找機會通過提高利潤來創造增長，而我們的突破性技術提供的機會可以讓我們在業內脫穎而出。

The news that we announced last week regarding our restructured executive leadership team will drive continued focus on our priorities. We have teams across Alcoa that have a proven ability to execute and we intend to deliver. In operations, we are actively managing the issues we face in Western Australia as it relates to ore supply, as Bill mentioned in his portion of the presentation. While the annual mine approvals are taking longer than in prior iterations, we are adjusting our Huntly mine plan to extend mining operations already permitted under our existing approvals. We continue to work collaboratively with regulators to address this matter.

我們上周宣布的有關重組執行領導團隊的消息將推動我們繼續關注我們的優先事項。我們在 Alcoa 擁有經過驗證的執行能力的團隊，我們打算交付。在運營中，我們正在積極管理我們在西澳大利亞面臨的與礦石供應相關的問題，正如 Bill 在他的演講部分中提到的那樣。雖然每年的礦山批准時間比之前的迭代時間更長，但我們正在調整我們的 Huntly 礦山計劃，以擴大我們現有批准已經允許的採礦作業。我們將繼續與監管機構合作解決這一問題。

Meanwhile, we are focused on improving our overall system processes to drive stability and performance across our facilities. We continue to review our operating capacity to address short-term market challenges and promote operational excellence. This includes monitoring the energy situation that prompted our decision to curtail some production at our Lista smelter and the San Ciprián refinery and the most recent impacts from gas shortages that led to a 30% reduction in output at the Kwinana refinery in Western Australia. And we continue to progress the restart of the Alumar smelter and prepare for the future restart of the San Ciprián smelter per our agreement with the workers there.

與此同時，我們專注於改進我們的整體系統流程，以推動我們設施的穩定性和性能。我們將繼續審查我們的運營能力，以應對短期市場挑戰並促進卓越運營。這包括監測促使我們決定削減 Lista 冶煉廠和 San Ciprián 煉油廠部分產量的能源形勢，以及天然氣短缺導致西澳大利亞 Kwinana 煉油廠減產 30% 的最新影響。我們繼續推進 Alumar 冶煉廠的重啟，並根據我們與那里工人的協議為未來 San Ciprián 冶煉廠的重啟做準備。

We've worked hard over these past several years to improve our company's financial position, and we are intent on maintaining that rigor as we further sharpen our focus on costs. We will continue our work to maintain a strong balance sheet, which includes considering more opportunities to reduce the risks from pension liabilities as the market allows. While we focus on the immediate needs for success for 2023, we are also keeping our future programs firmly in focus. Our R&D programs are fundamental for our long-term growth strategy and our vision to reinvent the aluminum industry.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在努力改善公司的財務狀況，並且我們打算在進一步加強對成本的關注時保持這種嚴謹性。我們將繼續努力維持穩健的資產負債表，其中包括在市場允許的情況下考慮更多機會來降低養老金負債的風險。在我們專注於 2023 年取得成功的迫切需求的同時，我們也牢牢關注未來的計劃。我們的研發計劃對於我們的長期增長戰略和重塑鋁行業的願景至關重要。

Our breakthrough technologies include the ELYSIS joint venture, our Australia scrap purification process and the Refinery of the Future initiative. Our strategy and technology road map are tightly linked and continued innovation will be vital. Today, we offer the industry's most comprehensive portfolio of low-carbon products, and we are focused on delivering to our customers products that can help them and us reach sustainability goals.

我們的突破性技術包括 ELYSIS 合資企業、我們的澳大利亞廢料淨化工藝和未來煉油廠計劃。我們的戰略和技術路線圖緊密相連，持續創新至關重要。今天，我們提供業界最全面的低碳產品組合，我們專注於為我們的客戶提供可以幫助他們和我們實現可持續發展目標的產品。

We've seen year-over-year growth in both margins and volumes for our Sustana line, and we intend to continue this growth. And we see this developing low-carbon market as the key to building this critical demand as our ELYSIS joint venture continues to progress towards production at industrial scale. Due to work across our company, we are well positioned as a supplier of choice, especially in a world that is working to further reduce greenhouse gases. We have a global refining system with the industry's lowest carbon dioxide intensity, and a significant portion of our smelting portfolio is powered by renewable energy.

我們已經看到我們的 Sustana 系列的利潤率和銷量同比增長，我們打算繼續這種增長。隨著我們的 ELYSIS 合資企業繼續朝著工業規模生產邁進，我們將這個發展中的低碳市場視為建立這一關鍵需求的關鍵。由於我們公司的工作，我們有能力成為首選供應商，尤其是在一個致力於進一步減少溫室氣體排放的世界中。我們擁有業內二氧化碳強度最低的全球精煉系統，並且我們冶煉組合的很大一部分由可再生能源提供動力。

Underpinning all of our initiatives, we remain committed to being a responsible and reliable producer, working cooperatively with our communities to bring shared value. We also have clear mid- and long-term sustainability goals, and we will continue to make progress against those targets.

在我們所有舉措的基礎上，我們始終致力於成為負責任和可靠的生產商，與我們的社區合作以帶來共享價值。我們也有明確的中長期可持續發展目標，我們將繼續朝著這些目標邁進。

Finally, I have just a few points I'd like to summarize before we take questions. First, our industry was a case study in contrast in 2022. The first half of the year was very strong with high pricing that more than offset high raw material costs. But world events negatively influenced our markets in the back half of the year. That helped emphasize once again why we operate with an intense focus on cost and delivering consistent operational excellence while we continue to work on projects that can drive future growth.

最後，在我們提問之前，我想總結幾點。首先，我們的行業是 2022 年的一個對比案例研究。上半年非常強勁，高定價抵消了高原材料成本。但世界事件在今年下半年對我們的市場產生了負面影響。這有助於再次強調為什麼我們在繼續致力於能夠推動未來增長的項目的同時，高度關注成本並提供始終如一的卓越運營。

Next, we know the world has experienced unexpected and disruptive volatility. Still, producers everywhere are facing increased demands and assurances of responsible production. Alcoa is quick to adapt and we will not simply wait for a market recovery. Alcoans know how to do the hard work, including managing both the short- and long-term opportunities ahead.

接下來，我們知道世界經歷了意想不到的破壞性波動。儘管如此，世界各地的生產商都面臨著越來越多的負責任生產的要求和保證。美鋁很快適應，我們不會簡單地等待市場復甦。 Alcoans 知道如何努力工作，包括管理未來的短期和長期機會。

And finally, we took action in 2022, and we will continue to improve and operate as a sustainable low-cost producer while we work on our vision to reinvent the aluminum industry. The world is working to decarbonize and that provides us an opportunity. We know the long-term fundamentals for our industry are strong. Aluminum is the material of choice, and Alcoa is the company to deliver the products our customers are demanding. With that, we're ready to take your questions. Operator, who do we have on the line?

最後，我們在 2022 年採取了行動，我們將繼續改進並作為可持續的低成本生產商運營，同時我們致力於重塑鋁行業的願景。世界正在努力脫碳，這為我們提供了機會。我們知道我們行業的長期基本面是強勁的。鋁是首選材料，Alcoa 是提供客戶所需產品的公司。這樣，我們就可以回答您的問題了。接線員，我們有誰在線上？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自高盛的 Emily Chieng。

Congratulations on the new role, Bill.

祝賀你擔任新角色，比爾。

Thanks, Emily.

謝謝，艾米麗。

My first question is around Western Australia alumina. And perhaps, could you share specifically what's driving the delays to the mine plan approvals there? Are these new environmental requirements that have been recently enforced that you now have to address? And is there a time frame in mind as to when you would expect to see those approvals received?

我的第一個問題是關於西澳大利亞氧化鋁。或許，您能否具體分享是什麼導致了那裡的礦山計劃批准延遲？這些最近實施的新環境要求是否是您現在必須解決的？關於您預計何時會收到這些批准，您是否有一個時間框架？

Yes. Emily, I appreciate the question. So we have an annual planning cycle. And as you can imagine, it takes time for us to adapt and prepare and put together everything that goes into choosing where we mine and how we mine. And so we also have an annual regulatory and set of connections that we make in order to receive all the permits that we need for operations. And so as expectations have been increasing around how we protect the environment, the amount of information and baseline data that we provide over to regulators has started to increase.

是的。艾米麗，我很欣賞這個問題。所以我們有一個年度計劃週期。正如你可以想像的那樣，我們需要時間來適應、準備和整合所有用於選擇我們在哪裡開采和如何開采的東西。因此，我們還制定了年度監管和一系列聯繫，以便獲得我們運營所需的所有許可。因此，隨著人們對我們如何保護環境的期望越來越高，我們向監管機構提供的信息和基線數據的數量也開始增加。

And this is particularly in relationship to the Myara area that we're mining today. It just takes longer for us to be able to receive and then put into place those permits. And so essentially, it's not necessarily new requirements but a new set of discussions that are necessary and just more discussions that are happening between us and the regulators. And so as we go through that process and because of the critical importance of bauxite that we have coming into the refineries and also just because of how critical Western Australia is to Alcoa as a company, we thought it would make sense from a risk mitigation standpoint really just to step back, give ourselves a little bit of extra time, particularly for the process in play for the coming years and really work through these permits and make sure that we were delivering to our regulators all they needed in order to be able to secure those permits.

這尤其與我們今天正在開采的 Myara 地區有關。我們只需要更長的時間才能收到並落實這些許可證。因此，從本質上講，這不一定是新要求，而是需要進行一系列新的討論，而且我們與監管機構之間正在進行更多討論。因此，當我們經歷這個過程時，由於我們進入煉油廠的鋁土礦至關重要，而且僅僅因為西澳大利亞對美鋁公司的重要性，我們認為從降低風險的角度來看，這是有意義的真的只是退後一步，給我們自己一點額外的時間，特別是在未來幾年的過程中，真正地通過這些許可工作，並確保我們向監管機構提供他們需要的一切，以便能夠獲得這些許可證。

So I have confidence that we're going to get to an end point here. I look at this as an intelligent way to make sure that we have the extra time that's demanded because of -- just because of some of the changing expectations and some of these discussions to allow them to fully happen. Over the course of these next few years, we're in the midst of preparing for that next big mine move in the Huntly mine to North Myara. That is a larger set of discussions and it's what we call a Part IV environmental approval, which is sort of a full bone review of how we'll access those reserves and connections with communities, et cetera.

所以我有信心我們會在這里達到終點。我認為這是一種明智的方式，可以確保我們有所需的額外時間，因為 - 只是因為一些不斷變化的期望和其中一些討論可以讓它們完全實現。在接下來的幾年裡，我們正在為 Huntly 礦山的下一個大礦山搬遷到 North Myara 做準備。這是一個更大範圍的討論，這就是我們所說的第四部分環境批准，這是對我們將如何使用這些儲備和與社區的聯繫等的全面審查。

And so really, this just helps to set us up over the course of these next few critical quarters to be able to manage all those different processes. Again, I have full confidence that we're going to get this where it needs to be. I find that we're collaborating and working with all of the stakeholders that are involved in the process. I just felt it was the right thing to do to really derisk and make sure that we have what we need and that we can operate our refineries smartly.

所以真的，這只是幫助我們在接下來的幾個關鍵季度中做好準備，以便能夠管理所有這些不同的流程。再一次，我完全有信心我們會把它做到需要的地方。我發現我們正在與流程中涉及的所有利益相關者進行協作和合作。我只是覺得真正降低風險並確保我們擁有所需的東西並且我們可以巧妙地運營我們的煉油廠是正確的事情。

I would add 1 more thing on top of that, Emily, because I think it's important. As we look at these next few quarters over the course of 2023, the opportunity we have is also to fine-tune our refineries to make sure that they're managing the -- managing these new bauxite grades really smartly. And so I think there are opportunities that we have to learn how to run more efficiently, to manage the mud and sand loans that are coming in and really to make sure that we're optimizing and running as cost efficiently as we possibly can in Western Australia and across the portfolio.

艾米麗，我還要在此基礎上再添加一件事，因為我認為這很重要。當我們展望 2023 年接下來的幾個季度時，我們還有機會微調我們的精煉廠，以確保他們能夠真正巧妙地管理這些新的鋁土礦等級。因此，我認為我們有機會必須學習如何更有效地運行，管理即將到來的泥沙貸款，並真正確保我們在西部地區盡可能以成本效益的方式進行優化和運行澳大利亞和整個投資組合。

And that points to some of the changes that we've been making in the organization as well really just to make sure that we are as cost effective as we possibly can be. And so I -- again, I'm confident we'll get the permits. I'm also confident that we can find ways to improve and make sure that we're driving that -- those mine operations and refinery operations as smartly as we possibly can.

這指出了我們在組織中所做的一些改變，實際上只是為了確保我們盡可能地具有成本效益。所以我 - 再一次，我相信我們會獲得許可。我也相信我們可以找到改進的方法，並確保我們正在推動這一點——盡可能聰明地進行那些礦山運營和煉油廠運營。

Great. That was really helpful, Roy. Maybe a follow-up, if I may, and sticking with the cost theme there, but just wanted to touch on what you're seeing from the lower gas prices in Europe right now. And if there's been any benefit to San Ciprián going forward for the Alumina segment. I don't think that was mentioned in the release.

偉大的。這真的很有幫助，羅伊。也許是後續行動，如果可以的話，並堅持那裡的成本主題，但只是想談談你現在從歐洲較低的天然氣價格中看到的情況。如果對 San Ciprián 的氧化鋁業務有任何好處的話。我認為發布中沒有提到這一點。

So yes, we are seeing lower gas prices in Europe for San Ciprián refinery. San Ciprián refinery results improved fourth quarter over third quarter. We anticipate that they will improve again first quarter over fourth quarter due to a couple of actions: one, the lower gas prices; two, some of the commercial actions that we've taken to try to drive some price increases in our NMA business and really trying to optimize the cost of running the refinery at the lower levels that we have at that.

所以是的，我們看到 San Ciprián 煉油廠在歐洲的天然氣價格較低。 San Ciprián 煉油廠第四季度的業績比第三季度有所改善。我們預計他們將在第一季度比第四季度再次有所改善，這主要歸功於以下幾項措施：第一，較低的天然氣價格；第二，我們採取的一些商業行動試圖推動我們的 NMA 業務價格上漲，並真正試圖優化在我們現有的較低水平上運行煉油廠的成本。

The next question is from Alex Hacking with Citi.

下一個問題來自 Alex Hacking with Citi。

Let me add my congrats to Bill on the new role. Deserve a lot of credit, especially if you work on the balance sheet. And hopefully, investors will still have a chance to hear from you going forward. Just following up on Emily's question on the cadence of cost. You mentioned that at San Ciprián, you would expect sequentially lower cost in the first quarter. As we look further ahead into the second quarter, would we expect European smelter costs, Norway, San Ciprián to keep falling, assuming that nat gas is at current levels or keep or falls further?

讓我對比爾擔任新職務表示祝賀。值得讚揚，特別是如果你在資產負債表上工作。希望投資者在未來仍然有機會聽到你的消息。只是跟進艾米麗關於成本節奏的問題。您提到在 San Ciprián，您預計第一季度的成本會連續下降。當我們進一步展望第二季度時，假設天然氣處於當前水平或保持或進一步下降，我們是否預計歐洲冶煉廠成本、挪威、San Ciprián 將繼續下降？

Alex, what we're seeing on the cost structure is really we're now starting finally to see some reduction in key raw material costs. I think you probably saw in the chart that we're starting to see coke prices tip over. Pitch is continuing to be pretty high. But we've guided to a relatively stronger result in the first quarter than the fourth quarter, especially in the Aluminum segment.

亞歷克斯，我們在成本結構上看到的是，我們現在終於開始看到關鍵原材料成本有所下降。我想你可能在圖表中看到我們開始看到焦炭價格暴跌。音調繼續很高。但我們已經指導第一季度的業績要好於第四季度，尤其是在鋁行業。

So in Aluminum, we're guiding really to $100 million positive, $100 million up from the fourth quarter in the first quarter. As we look out into the second quarter, it really will depend on what energy prices do. And with the volatility in the market, it's probably too early to give an indication of what energy prices will do in the second quarter of the year.

因此，在鋁業，我們真的指導了 1 億美元，比第一季度的第四季度增加了 1 億美元。當我們展望第二季度時，這實際上將取決於能源價格的走勢。鑑於市場的波動性，現在就能源價格在今年第二季度的表現給出指示可能還為時過早。

Okay. And then on the San Ciprián smelter, what percentage of power is covered by the 2 PPAs that you signed? And then what are prices they're indexed to, if anything? Are they sort of indexed to market prices or LME? Any color there would be helpful.

好的。然後在 San Ciprián 冶煉廠，您簽署的 2 個購電協議涵蓋了多少百分比的電力？如果有的話，它們的索引價格是多少？它們是否與市場價格或 LME 掛鉤？那裡的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes. Alex, I can answer that one. So the -- these 2 contracts that we've put together over the course of 2022 really add up to about 75% of the total demand for the smelter operating at full capacity. We've not talked about how the pricing structure works, but essentially, it's a fixed price. And then you need to add in transmission charges in any programs that the Spanish government might be running an order on interruptibility and things like that.

是的。亞歷克斯，我可以回答那個問題。因此，我們在 2022 年期間簽訂的這兩份合同實際上加起來約佔冶煉廠滿負荷運行總需求的 75%。我們沒有討論定價結構如何運作，但本質上，它是一個固定價格。然後你需要在西班牙政府可能正在運行的任何程序中添加傳輸費用，以中斷和類似的事情。

We look at this as an opportunity to really re-baseline and prepare San Ciprián for our future. It's the reason we put together the agreement with the workforce. We were able to gain the time where we didn't -- where we were able to curtail the facility completely and are preparing, as I said in my comments before, preparing for the restart back in January -- the start of the restart back in January 2024.

我們將此視為一次真正重新設定基準並為 San Ciprián 為我們的未來做好準備的機會。這就是我們與員工達成協議的原因。正如我之前在評論中所說，我們能夠在我們沒有的地方獲得時間——在那裡我們能夠完全削減設施並正在做準備，為 1 月份的重啟做準備——重啟的開始2024 年 1 月。

The next question is from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Carlos De Alba。

Happy new year Roy and Bill. And Bill, congrats on your tenure as CFO and all the best in the new role. Just a question regarding the Kwinana run rate, just to continue the discussion on alumina, I guess. You mentioned in the press release, and I think there were some news articles that the gas supply has improved, but yet you're keeping the reduced capacity utilization there. So what would need to change for you to take the capacity utilization higher in that refinery? That will be my first question.

羅伊和比爾新年快樂。比爾，祝賀你擔任首席財務官並祝你在新職位上一切順利。我想只是關於 Kwinana 運行率的問題，只是為了繼續討論氧化鋁。你在新聞稿中提到，我認為有一些新聞報導說天然氣供應有所改善，但你仍將降低的產能利用率保持在那裡。那麼，為了提高該煉油廠的產能利用率，您需要做出哪些改變？這將是我的第一個問題。

And then the second one maybe related to ELYSIS. What can you tell us there in terms of important milestones? When should we hear an update from you on how the developments are progressing? And when will you be making the decision of further investments? I think there was something around $100 million contingent CapEx depending on the success of the developments that you're running right now.

然後第二個可能與 ELYSIS 有關。就重要里程碑而言，您能告訴我們什麼？我們什麼時候應該聽到您關於開發進展情況的最新消息？您將在什麼時候做出進一步投資的決定？我認為大約有 1 億美元的或有資本支出，具體取決於您目前正在運行的開發項目是否成功。

Carlos, let me give you first couple of answers, then Bill can fill in, particularly on the ELYSIS numbers. Kwinana, just to get started there, so we've got about 30% curtailed. It was very much driven by the fact we just didn't have enough gas in the state of Western Australia, asked large consumers of gas to look for ways to be able to reduce. And operating on diesel just doesn't make a lot of sense just because of the price differential and for a number of other reasons.

卡洛斯，讓我先給你幾個答案，然後比爾可以填寫，特別是關於 ELYSIS 數字。 Kwinana，只是從那裡開始，所以我們減少了大約 30%。這在很大程度上是由我們在西澳大利亞州沒有足夠的天然氣這一事實推動的，要求大量天然氣消費者尋找能夠減少的方法。由於價格差異和許多其他原因，使用柴油運行並沒有多大意義。

So as we looked at that, the right thing to do was to be able to take a series of maintenance activities and bring that down by 30%. At this point, we have seen improvements in how much gas is available essentially up to our normal contracts. We've seen an improvement but we've not yet got back to the stability that we normally have. I would say we've made good progress in being able to fill in some of the gaps so that we're now running what we have running fully on natural gas, and we're not substituting diesel, which is very good and good from a cost standpoint but also good from a stability standpoint.

因此，正如我們所看到的那樣，正確的做法是能夠進行一系列維護活動並將其降低 30%。在這一點上，我們已經看到基本上達到我們正常合同的可用天然氣量有所改善。我們已經看到了進步，但我們還沒有恢復到通常的穩定性。我想說我們在填補一些空白方面取得了很好的進展，所以我們現在正在運行我們已經完全使用天然氣運行的東西，而且我們沒有替代柴油，這非常好，從從成本的角度來看，但從穩定性的角度來看也很好。

But we need to see continued sort of the return of all the normal operating capacity back before we start making that next set of decisions about whether we bring it back up or not. All intentions or sort of what we had seen before is that by the end of January, we should see some of those maintenance and downtime events in our suppliers start to ease up, the ones that haven't done so already. And so we'll be analyzing as we go. And as always, we'll keep you informed and let you know as soon as we've made a decision on that, Carlos.

但是在我們開始做出是否恢復它的下一組決定之前，我們需要看到所有正常運行能力的持續恢復。我們之前看到的所有意圖或某種程度是，到 1 月底，我們應該會看到我們供應商中的一些維護和停機事件開始緩解，那些還沒有這樣做的供應商。因此，我們將進行分析。卡洛斯，一如既往，我們會及時通知您，並在我們做出決定後立即通知您。

On ELYSIS, just jumping into that second question as well, important milestones. I'll hit it qualitatively, and then Bill can step in and talk a bit more about the numbers. For me, the next important milestones, the ones that obviously, we'd be talking more about, we're in the midst of constructing and preparing to start up the first industrial-scale cells. And so that will be happening over the course of 2023. So as you can imagine, this year is very important to see those cells starting to operate and to start to see those initial results.

在 ELYSIS 上，也直接進入第二個問題，重要的里程碑。我會定性地擊中它，然後 Bill 可以介入並更多地談論這些數字。對我來說，下一個重要的里程碑，顯然，我們會更多地談論，我們正在建造和準備啟動第一個工業規模的電池。因此，這將在 2023 年期間發生。正如您可以想像的那樣，今年對於看到這些電池開始運行並開始看到這些初步結果非常重要。

And I would imagine that we'll keep the market informed as much as we feel is appropriate over the course of 2023 and 2024 as those cells continue to operate. By the end of 2024, what we've said is that we want a commercial package available so that we can get started on the first installations of ELYSIS, which we've not defined where that will happen yet, with the idea that the first operating capacity really will be happening in 2026.

我想，隨著這些電池繼續運行，我們將在 2023 年和 2024 年期間盡可能多地向市場通報我們認為合適的情況。到 2024 年底，我們所說的是我們想要一個可用的商業軟件包，這樣我們就可以開始首次安裝 ELYSIS，我們還沒有確定在哪里安裝，我們的想法是第一個運營能力真的會在 2026 年發生。

And so to me, 2023 is going to be absolutely critical because it's going to show that we're -- that we've got the ability to operate, to generate the quality of metal at P1020 or better capacity and to start to work on making sure that we can deliver on the operating efficiencies and the capital efficiencies that we've got planned. So it's going to be an exciting year.

所以對我來說，2023 年將是絕對關鍵的，因為它將表明我們——我們有能力運營，以 P1020 或更高的產能生產金屬質量，並開始致力於確保我們能夠實現我們計劃的運營效率和資本效率。所以這將是令人興奮的一年。

And on the numbers, Carlos, a couple of numbers to keep in mind. We guided in the -- we are guiding in the first quarter that other income will be down sequentially by about $45 million. $35 million of that $45 million is associated with contributions to ELYSIS in the first quarter. So you know the way the accounting for the ELYSIS contributions are is that when we make that contribution, we immediately take the hit in income and that sits in other income.

關於數字，卡洛斯，要記住幾個數字。我們指導 - 我們在第一季度指導其他收入將連續下降約 4500 萬美元。這 4500 萬美元中的 3500 萬美元與第一季度對 ELYSIS 的貢獻有關。所以你知道 ELYSIS 貢獻的核算方式是，當我們做出貢獻時，我們會立即承受收入的損失，而這會影響其他收入。

For a full year estimate, including the $35 million of contributions in the first quarter, we would anticipate about $60 million in full year contributions for ELYSIS at this point. Now that will flex based on timing of some of the key decisions, but that's our best estimate at this point.

對於全年估計，包括第一季度的 3500 萬美元捐款，我們預計此時 ELYSIS 的全年捐款約為 6000 萬美元。現在，這將根據一些關鍵決策的時間安排進行調整，但這是我們目前的最佳估計。

All right. Very exciting indeed. Good luck, guys.

好的。確實非常令人興奮。祝大家好運。

The next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。

I wanted to just touch on a little piggybacking on the discussion of kind of what it takes to restart some of your idle capacity but ask a little differently. Looking around the European markets, do you think that there's also the potential for some extensive restarts, given lower gas prices? Or what do you think it takes to see some of those facilities also restart?

我想稍微談談關於重啟一些閒置容量需要什麼的討論，但問的有點不同。環顧歐洲市場，您認為鑑於較低的天然氣價格，是否也有可能進行大規模重啟？或者您認為其中一些設施也需要重新啟動需要什麼？

Timna, I can -- I'd take a first thing at that 1 and Bill can chime in as well if he wants to. The -- operating in Europe is still pretty difficult. So you compare it to prior to the war in Ukraine or maybe even better, take it a year before that because we were seeing an inflation in energy prices even the year before. It's still a very difficult place in order to operate a smelter or a refinery. And so those smelters that are operating tend to be ones that have long-term contracts that have been disconnected from the spot prices that we see today.

Timna，我可以——我會先做那件事，如果 Bill 願意的話，他也可以插話。在歐洲開展業務仍然非常困難。因此，您將其與烏克蘭戰爭之前進行比較，或者甚至更好，將其與那之前一年進行比較，因為我們甚至在前一年就看到了能源價格的上漲。要經營冶煉廠或精煉廠，這仍然是一個非常困難的地方。因此，那些正在運營的冶煉廠往往擁有與我們今天看到的現貨價格脫節的長期合同。

We were able to find a solution on the relatively small -- lease the smelter that we have, although it is 1/3 curtailed at this point, and that was through some incredible work that our strategy and commercial teams were able to do. But it's still just not a market where you can justify continuing to operate at spot power rates as you see.

我們能夠找到相對較小的解決方案——租用我們擁有的冶煉廠，儘管此時已減少 1/3，這是通過我們的戰略和商業團隊能夠完成的一些令人難以置信的工作。但它仍然不是一個你可以證明繼續以現貨電價運營的市場。

And I would extend that over to the Refining business as well when you're buying spot gas. The current LME pricing for aluminum nor the API pricing for alumina giving you a return given where those rates are. As we see the winter continue and if it continues as mild as it is, I think perhaps you'll start to see some opportunities that emerge but we're just not seeing that yet.

當您購買現貨天然氣時，我也會將其擴展到煉油業務。當前的 LME 鋁定價或 API 氧化鋁定價給您帶來回報。當我們看到冬天還在繼續，如果它繼續像現在這樣溫和，我想也許你會開始看到一些出現的機會，但我們還沒有看到。

If anything, when I look across Europe, I'd say that there are still opportunities or potential and particularly where certain smelters might be coming up on end of shorter-term contracts and then are going into the spot market or looking for that next series of contracts. I think there's still some curtailment potential that could happen both on the smelting side. And we've also heard some rumors about stuff that could be happening also on the refining side that sort of informed the difficulty that's happening in the market.

如果有的話，當我環顧整個歐洲時，我會說仍有機會或潛力，特別是某些冶煉廠可能即將結束短期合同，然後進入現貨市場或尋找下一個系列的合同。我認為在冶煉方面仍有一些削減潛力。而且我們還聽到了一些關於煉油方面也可能發生的事情的傳言，這些傳聞在某種程度上說明了市場上正在發生的困難。

Again, we always -- when we step back and we look at our facilities and we think about how we run them, San Ciprián is a good example. The San Ciprián refinery is a good example of a place where we've been able to make smart decisions and curtail it partially so that we're really only producing the tons that, in fact, are creating value for us. It doesn't necessarily fix the problems because we want to be operating that facility at full speed again down the road, but we need to see the more relief on gas before we get to that particular point or more relief coming in from the pricing, the API pricing, et cetera.

同樣，我們總是——當我們退後一步，審視我們的設施並思考我們如何運行它們時，San Ciprián 就是一個很好的例子。 San Ciprián 煉油廠是一個很好的例子，在這個地方我們能夠做出明智的決定並部分削減它，這樣我們實際上只生產實際上為我們創造價值的噸數。它不一定能解決問題，因為我們希望在未來再次全速運行該設施，但我們需要在達到那個特定點之前看到更多的天然氣緩解，或者更多的緩解來自定價， API 定價等。

Just to put some numbers around that, Roy, I was going to reiterate the point that you are making at the end there. We were -- we have been consistently surprised that more capacity hasn't come off-line in Europe. And you've heard us, Timna, talk many times about 1 million to 1.2 million metric tons that was at risk because of high cost in Europe. We would still say that today, in the month of December, we think that 15% to 25% of the European smelting capacity is cash negative.

羅伊，為了給出一些數字，我要重申你最後提出的觀點。我們曾經——我們一直對歐洲沒有更多產能下線感到驚訝。 Timna，你已經聽過我們多次談論 100 萬到 120 萬公噸由於歐洲的高成本而處於危險之中。我們仍然會說，今天，在 12 月份，我們認為 15% 到 25% 的歐洲冶煉產能是現金負值。

So as we look around the world, the majority of the cash negative smelting capacity is sitting in Europe today. To add on, on the refining side, a surprising number is that we would consider close to 85% of the refining capacity in Europe to be cash negative at the December average gas prices. Now we know that gas prices have changed a little bit in January, but a lot of the capacity in Europe on the refining side is cash negative.

因此，當我們環顧世界時，今天大部分現金負冶煉能力都位於歐洲。此外，在煉油方面，一個令人驚訝的數字是，我們認為歐洲近 85% 的煉油能力在 12 月的平均天然氣價格下出現現金負值。現在我們知道 1 月份天然氣價格發生了一些變化，但歐洲煉油方面的很多產能都是現金負數。

Okay, that's super helpful. My other second question was just on the CapEx, given that your guidance, at least from my recollection, is a little lower than what we've seen before by $50 million. And actually, your 2022 came in, I think, about $45 million lower than what you had initially said. So just wondering if any shortfalls there, if that is getting pushed out, any explanation would be great.

好的，這非常有幫助。我的另一個第二個問題只是關於資本支出，因為至少從我的記憶來看，你的指導比我們之前看到的要低 5000 萬美元。實際上，我認為你的 2022 年收入比你最初所說的少了大約 4500 萬美元。所以只是想知道那裡是否有任何不足，如果它被推出，任何解釋都會很好。

I wouldn't say anything that were necessarily getting pushed out, Timna. Given -- and you've seen over the years, given the market situation that we are in and the cash generation of the company, we will flex the capital spending up and down. And so I think it's a good point.

Timna，我不會說任何必然被排斥的事情。鑑於 - 你多年來已經看到，鑑於我們所處的市場形勢和公司的現金產生，我們將上下調整資本支出。所以我認為這是一個很好的觀點。

The last time we gave you guidance around 2023 was back in November of 2021. And we said at the time, we would spend $550 million of sustaining capital. And that was before we curtailed the smelter in Spain and made some commitments in Spain on capital spend there. So the $485 million that we're showing you for 2023, we've already ratcheted down a little bit based on current market conditions.

我們上一次給你 2023 年左右的指導是在 2021 年 11 月。我們當時說，我們將花費 5.5 億美元的維持資本。那是在我們削減西班牙的冶煉廠並在西班牙就資本支出做出一些承諾之前。因此，我們向您展示的 2023 年的 4.85 億美元，我們已經根據當前的市場狀況有所下調。

With that said, going into my new role, we will make sure that we spend that $485 million wisely and do the best that we can to make sure that we maintain the assets at the right level so that we can produce the tons in the good times.

話雖如此，進入我的新角色後，我們將確保我們明智地花費這 4.85 億美元，並儘我們所能確保我們將資產維持在正確的水平，以便我們能夠生產出大量優質產品次。

The next question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。

And Bill, I hope it wasn't our questions that led you to the new role. In terms of my question, I wanted to follow up on Huntly. Is the easiest way to think about it, it's about $165 million impact for 2023 between (inaudible) and then as we look out to 2024, this issue will hopefully be resolved?

比爾，我希望不是我們的問題讓你擔任新角色。就我的問題而言，我想跟進 Huntly。最簡單的思考方式是，到 2023 年（聽不清）和 2024 年之間的影響約為 1.65 億美元，這個問題有望得到解決嗎？

Yes. The number you put out there, the $165 million is correct. That is in relation to the fourth quarter and you just need to -- we needed to be able to ground you in how much this issue was going to cost us in Q2 through Q4. So it's $55 million unfavorable compared to the fourth quarter.

是的。你給出的數字，1.65 億美元是正確的。這與第四季度有關，你只需要——我們需要讓你了解這個問題在第二季度到第四季度會給我們帶來多少損失。因此，與第四季度相比，這是不利的 5500 萬美元。

But it's important that you first back out some of the unfavorable items that occurred in the fourth quarter in the Alumina segment. So in the Alumina segment in the fourth quarter of 2022, we had an ARO charge of $25 million, and we had an incremental onetime set of charges that were some small things in that segment. So what we're guiding you to is start with the fourth quarter of Alumina, add back the $35 million and then deduct the $55 million. So it's an incremental $20 million of unfavorability in relation to the fourth quarter. And I hope that's clear. We just needed to try to make that as clear as we possibly could for you to be able to model out the impact.

但重要的是，您首先要取消氧化鋁部門第四季度出現的一些不利項目。因此，在 2022 年第四季度的氧化鋁領域，我們有 2500 萬美元的 ARO 費用，並且我們有一組增量的一次性費用，這是該領域的一些小事情。因此，我們指導您的是從 Alumina 的第四季度開始，加回 3500 萬美元，然後減去 5500 萬美元。因此，與第四季度相比，不利因素增加了 2000 萬美元。我希望這是清楚的。我們只需要盡可能清楚地說明這一點，以便您能夠模擬出影響。

Very clear to me. I appreciate that detail. And this would also include all the quality concerns that Roy mentioned in response to one of the earlier questions?

我很清楚。我很欣賞這個細節。這還包括 Roy 在回答之前的一個問題時提到的所有質量問題嗎？

It does. That's an inclusive number that includes the loss of tons, but also it's more expensive to make the tons that we will be making. As we push through lower-quality bauxite through the refineries, we will have higher usages of caustic and other input costs. So that's inclusive of those 2 items, tons and costs.

確實如此。這是一個包含噸數損失的包容性數字，但製造我們將要製造的噸數也更加昂貴。當我們通過精煉廠生產低質量的鋁土礦時，我們將使用更多的苛性鹼和其他投入成本。所以這包括這 2 個項目、噸和成本。

Very helpful. I appreciate that. And then switching quickly to San Ciprián. Could you run us through a punch list for that restart? I know you spent some time on that theme today but would appreciate what is necessary there. And if this punch list is not completed by the end of this year, what happens? Do you go ahead with whatever the spot price for power is at that time or are there other remediation possibilities?

非常有幫助。我很感激。然後迅速切換到 San Ciprián。你能給我們列出一份重新啟動的清單嗎？我知道您今天在該主題上花費了一些時間，但希望了解其中的必要性。如果到今年年底還沒有完成這份清單，會發生什麼？無論當時的電力現貨價格是多少，你都會繼續嗎？還是有其他補救的可能性？

Yes, Lucas, let me try and answer that, and then if I'm not hitting the targets, let me know. So what we have are a series of commitments that we made that essentially allowed us to idle the facility a little bit more than a year ago. There were a certain number of capital investments, and some of those take longer than others, as you can imagine, and they're meant to set up the facility for the long term. And so those are ongoing.

是的，盧卡斯，讓我試著回答這個問題，如果我沒有達到目標，請告訴我。因此，我們所做的是我們做出的一系列承諾，這些承諾基本上允許我們在一年多前閒置該設施。有一定數量的資本投資，正如您可以想像的那樣，其中一些比其他投資需要更長的時間，並且它們旨在長期建立設施。所以這些正在進行中。

And also, what we need to do is make sure that it's ready to restart when we get to January 1, 2024, which was a very specific commitment that's inside of the agreement. Our workforce is there ready and waiting. And in fact, we've been trying to help with certain trainings and things like that. But in the end, there's only a certain number of activities that they can do. They've helped with some maintenance and things like that, but they're ready and waiting and ready to jump in to start that restart.

而且，我們需要做的是確保它準備好在我們到達 2024 年 1 月 1 日時重新啟動，這是協議中的一個非常具體的承諾。我們的員工已準備好等待。事實上，我們一直在努力幫助進行某些培訓和類似的事情。但最終，他們只能做一定數量的活動。他們幫助進行了一些維護和類似的事情，但他們已經準備好等待並準備好開始重新啟動。

So really, we just need to make sure that we have all of the raw materials necessary so as 2023 progresses, we'll be able to make sure that we've got the coke and pitch or anodes in place so that when we start to spark those pots and bring production back online again, it will be ready to go.

所以真的，我們只需要確保我們擁有所有必要的原材料，以便在 2023 年取得進展，我們將能夠確保我們已經準備好焦炭和瀝青或陽極，以便當我們開始點燃那些罐子並使生產重新上線，它就可以開始了。

From an energy perspective, it's a matter of, we've got the 75% worth of contracts that are already in place. Those are wind farms still to be constructed. So those are going through the permitting phases, which connects with both the national and regional governments. There will then be a construction phase. As you can imagine, the construction of wind farms in northwestern Spain is something that's happened often in the past, but it takes some time to be able to bring those up to speed.

從能源的角度來看，這是一個問題，我們已經獲得了價值 75% 的合同。那些是尚待建設的風電場。因此，這些正在經歷與國家和地區政府相關的許可階段。然後將有一個建設階段。可以想像，在西班牙西北部建設風力發電場是過去經常發生的事情，但需要一些時間才能加快速度。

And so we will need to find a solution for the piece of the -- for the remaining 25% plus the piece of the 75% that will not be ready when we get ready to restart those pots. And whether we run that on spot, whether we find a shorter-term contract, how we manage that is still not something that we've disclosed or have made a decision on. But as you can imagine, because we have that agreement with the workforce, we will be ready when the time comes and we'll be working on that over the course of these next months.

因此，我們需要為剩餘的 25% 加上 75% 的部分找到解決方案，當我們準備好重新啟動這些罐子時，這些部分還沒有準備好。我們是否在現場運行，是否找到短期合同，我們如何管理它仍然不是我們已經披露或做出決定的事情。但正如您可以想像的那樣，因為我們與員工達成了協議，所以我們會在時機成熟時做好準備，我們將在接下來的幾個月里為此努力。

Right. That is very helpful. That's exactly what I was looking for, so I appreciate that, and to you and the team, continued best of luck.

正確的。這很有幫助。這正是我一直在尋找的，所以我很感激，並祝你和團隊繼續好運。

The next question is from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Michael Dudas。

Good evening, everyone, and well done, Bill.

大家晚上好，幹得好，比爾。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，邁克爾。

Roy, could you share with us your observations of what your major customers are behaving like right now as we went through to 2023? Is there expectation that the recovery from the pandemic restrictions in China and such and stimulus is going to be a pretty major factor? Is it going to be sooner rather than later, given what your customers are thinking?

羅伊，您能否與我們分享您對我們到 2023 年的主要客戶目前行為的觀察？是否期望從中國等大流行限制措施和刺激措施中復蘇將成為一個相當重要的因素？考慮到您的客戶的想法，它會早點而不是晚點嗎？

Yes. I can provide some color, Mike. As always, every customer might be a little bit different so I'll try and generalize a little bit. We're still seeing a lot of strength in the U.S. market, particularly. And so when we look across the different product categories, and I would highlight transportation and packaging is the 2 places where we're just seeing -- we continue to see more demand than probably we're able to fulfill. So the U.S. market is still running very well.

是的。我可以提供一些顏色，邁克。一如既往，每個客戶都可能有點不同，所以我會嘗試概括一下。我們仍然看到美國市場的強勁勢頭，尤其是。因此，當我們查看不同的產品類別時，我會強調運輸和包裝是我們剛剛看到的兩個地方——我們繼續看到比我們可能能夠滿足的更多需求。所以美國市場仍然運行得很好。

In Europe, I think there's a lot more uncertainty. Some of that uncertainty, I think, has started to step back a little bit just because of the reduction in gas prices and the reduction in electricity prices that we're seeing. There has been a certain amount of destocking, so I think that our customers have been taking the position that they are, being very careful what they order. And in Europe, we tend to contract on a quarterly basis. And so you tend to see those reactions happen a bit quicker than what you might see in the U.S.

在歐洲，我認為存在更多的不確定性。我認為，由於我們看到的天然氣價格下降和電價下降，部分不確定性已經開始有所消退。已經有一定程度的去庫存，所以我認為我們的客戶一直在採取他們現在的立場，非常小心他們訂購的東西。在歐洲，我們傾向於每季度收縮一次。所以你往往會看到這些反應發生得比你在美國看到的要快一點。

But I think there's now, I would argue, more uncertainty in the market about whether we'll start to see a better recovery. And you've probably seen as well as I have some of the analyst coverage about the potential for recovery in Europe because it's been such a mild winter and because they are -- they have sufficient gas and storage.

但我認為，我認為現在市場上存在更多關於我們是否會開始看到更好的複甦的不確定性。你可能和我一樣看到了一些關於歐洲復甦潛力的分析師報導，因為這是一個溫和的冬天，而且因為他們有足夠的天然氣和儲存空間。

And so I'd say there's been a cautious approach in Europe, but I think it's also potentially constructive as we see what happens over these next few critical weeks and these next few critical months. From a Chinese perspective, and we don't sell particularly into China but I think that has a knock-on impact what people are seeing there, I think there's a general expectation that they need to work through this abrupt opening of -- or loosening of COVID restrictions.

因此，我想說歐洲採取了謹慎的態度，但我認為這也可能具有建設性，因為我們會看到接下來的關鍵幾周和接下來的關鍵幾個月會發生什麼。從中國的角度來看，我們並沒有特別向中國銷售產品，但我認為這會產生連鎖反應，人們在那裡所看到的，我認為人們普遍期望他們需要努力度過這一突然開放或放鬆的時期COVID 限制。

I know there's plenty of discussions about how much industrial activity is able to happen between now and the Chinese New Year. We've also seen a lot of issues on the supply side, particularly when it comes to aluminum, just because of the availability of energy between droughts and hot weather and all sorts of things, it hasn't been an easy time to see stable operations in China, particularly in smelting these days.

我知道有很多關於從現在到農曆新年期間能夠進行多少工業活動的討論。我們在供應方面也看到了很多問題，特別是在鋁方面，僅僅因為乾旱和炎熱天氣之間的能源供應以及各種各樣的事情，這並不是一個容易看到穩定的時間在中國的業務，特別是最近在冶煉方面。

And all that sort of will culminate then coming out of the Chinese New Year. We're coming into it, and I just saw a headline today saying that we're relatively a very low inventory build coming into Chinese New Year, which then bodes very well if we see that demand recover and we start to come out of sort of what might be the spike in cases of COVID because of the loosening of COVID restrictions. It really does bode well for demand coming out of China and because of the size of the Chinese market, that then bodes well for all of the global markets when it comes to aluminum.

所有這些都將在農曆新年結束後達到高潮。我們正在進入它，我今天剛看到一個標題說我們在農曆新年期間的庫存相對較低由於 COVID 限制的放鬆，COVID 病例可能會激增。這對來自中國的需求來說確實是個好兆頭，而且由於中國市場的規模，這對所有全球鋁市場來說都是個好兆頭。

So certainly, a lot of the things I've been seeing recently are providing a lot of breadcrumbs that say, "Hey, there's still a significant amount of uncertainty." We come out of what's been a relatively small deficit for the aluminum market in 2022 into a market where there's a lot of uncertainty, but I would argue that over these last weeks, we've been seeing more and more positivity come out. Again, that's -- you always take into account what could happen in Ukraine, what's happening across the world when it comes to demand, et cetera.

所以可以肯定的是，我最近看到的很多事情都提供了很多麵包屑，上面寫著，“嘿，仍然存在很大的不確定性。”我們走出了 2022 年鋁市場相對較小的赤字，進入了一個充滿不確定性的市場，但我認為在過去幾周里，我們看到越來越多的積極情緒出現。再一次，那是——你總是考慮到烏克蘭可能發生的事情，世界各地在需求方面正在發生的事情，等等。

But I look at our business and I look at our customers, and we're still finding good uptake of our value-added products. We continue to see good improvements on our low-carbon offerings as well. And that's a piece of the market. It's particularly developed inside of Europe. But to me, that sort of gives you good positive signs that we're continuing to see a constructive market. And that even if there are short-term disturbances when we look into the medium and long terms, I am very positive about what's going to happen across our markets.

但我看看我們的業務，看看我們的客戶，我們仍然發現我們的增值產品得到了很好的採用。我們也繼續看到我們的低碳產品有了很好的改進。這是市場的一部分。它在歐洲內部特別發達。但對我來說，這給了你很好的積極信號，表明我們將繼續看到一個建設性的市場。而且，即使我們從中長期來看存在短期干擾，我對我們市場將要發生的事情也非常樂觀。

Our final question comes from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Independent Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 John Tumazos 和 John Tumazos Independent Research。

Looking at ELYSIS and the Refinery of the Future, what is the likely first location where you would retrofit a smelter or retrofit a refinery? And what year might we look ahead to that? Is it possible for 2025 or sooner or later?

看看 ELYSIS 和未來的精煉廠，您可能首先要改造冶煉廠或精煉廠的地點是哪裡？我們可以展望哪一年？ 2025年或早晚有可能嗎？

So it's a great question, John, and not one that we've yet defined and certainly not communicated. And so we're looking across all the jurisdictions where we operate. As you can imagine, there's a lot of excitement about ELYSIS and a lot of excitement about who can be first. Canada, of course, is one of the frontrunners because they've been so supportive of the technology, the technology as an investor, as supporting all of the work that's being done in Canada right now. And obviously, they have a very attractive energy scheme as well.

所以這是一個很好的問題，John，我們還沒有定義，當然也沒有交流過。因此，我們正在研究我們開展業務的所有司法管轄區。正如您所想像的，人們對 ELYSIS 充滿了興奮，對誰能成為第一名也充滿了興奮。當然，加拿大是領先者之一，因為他們一直非常支持這項技術，作為投資者的技術，支持加拿大目前正在開展的所有工作。顯然，他們也有非常有吸引力的能源計劃。

But I wouldn't count out the U.S. as a potential location. Norway is another great place where we've had a lot of support from the government in a lot of different places. And so I'd say that it is still very much open where that first application will happen. And to be quite honest, as we watch the good results come in here over the course of 2023, it's going to get more and more of an opportunity for us to decide where will that first application be.

但我不會將美國排除在外。挪威是另一個偉大的地方，我們在許多不同的地方得到了政府的大力支持。所以我想說第一個應用程序將在何處發生仍然非常開放。老實說，隨著我們看到在 2023 年期間取得了良好的結果，我們將有越來越多的機會來決定第一個應用程序的位置。

And as to when that first 1 will be built, what we've been saying is that by the end of 2024, we want the engineering package in place so that first metal can come out in 2026. So it says we really need to get started building in -- across '24 and '25. So it doesn't give us a lot of time. It means we're coming up on a decision where that first location will be. It means we need to be interfacing with all of our host governments and our potential host governments and need to continue to see good progress on the actual success of those industrial-scale cells that are being operated today.

至於何時建造第一艘 1，我們一直在說，到 2024 年底，我們希望工程包到位，以便第一批金屬可以在 2026 年問世。所以它說我們真的需要得到在 24 和 25 年開始建設。所以它不會給我們很多時間。這意味著我們正在決定第一個地點的位置。這意味著我們需要與我們所有的東道國政府和我們潛在的東道國政府建立聯繫，並且需要繼續看到今天正在運行的那些工業規模電池取得實際成功的良好進展。

As far as Refinery of the Future, yes?

至於未來的煉油廠，是嗎？

Yes. As far as Refinery of the Future, John, and I'll address that 1 quickly, remember that Refinery of the Future is really a suite of processes that we are developing. Out of that suite of processes, there are some that we've talked about externally, for instance, mechanical vapor recompression and electric calcination. We have committed to do a pilot of mechanical vapor recompression in 2023 at the Wagerup facility, and we're getting some funding from the Australian government.

是的。至於未來的煉油廠，約翰和我會很快解決這個問題，請記住，未來的煉油廠實際上是我們正在開發的一套流程。在這一系列過程中，有一些我們已經在外部討論過，例如，機械蒸汽再壓縮和電煅燒。我們已承諾於 2023 年在 Wagerup 設施進行機械蒸汽再壓縮試點，並且我們正在從澳大利亞政府獲得一些資金。

Out of the $115 million that we're talking about return-seeking capital, MVR is included in that $115 million. So while we've skinnied down our return-seeking and our sustaining capital, there are a handful of projects that are really critically important for us and MVR is one of them, and that's included in those numbers. As far as electric calcination, it's a little bit farther away, and we need to prove out the technology at a smaller scale. So it's too early to say where that would be applied.

在我們談論的尋求回報的 1.15 億美元資本中，MVR 包括在這 1.15 億美元中。因此，雖然我們減少了尋求回報和維持資本的資金，但仍有一些項目對我們來說非常重要，而 MVR 就是其中之一，並且包含在這些數字中。至於電煅，還差一點，需要小規模的驗證。所以現在說將在何處應用還為時過早。

If I could follow up on Slide 17, Roy's key areas of focus for 2023. A couple of the targets look like they're kind of hard things to do. On bauxite quality, are you assuming that you get regulatory approval? Or would you go across the road and buy some bauxite from Worsley or across the lake from Weber or something? And with gas supply in Western Australia and energy for San Ciprián and Lista, are you essentially seeing the markets soften and that supplies are going to become available that were not available several months ago?

如果我可以跟進幻燈片 17，羅伊在 2023 年重點關注的領域。有幾個目標看起來很難實現。關於鋁土礦質量，您是否假設您已獲得監管部門的批准？或者你會去馬路對面從 Worsley 或湖對面的 Weber 或其他地方購買一些鋁土礦嗎？隨著西澳大利亞的天然氣供應以及圣西普里安和利斯塔的能源供應，您是否基本上看到市場疲軟並且供應將變得可用，而幾個月前還沒有？

So John, it's all very important questions. So first and foremost, and this is something I've learned over the time I've been CEO of Alcoa, we lack easy-to-solve problems. We have lots of things that need complicated solutions, that take time and smart ways in order to address them. It's why I've got the team that I do. It's why I've got a lot of faith as we deal with these things. And to be quite honest, it's one of the reasons that we made some of the changes in the executive team to make sure that we're focused on the right things to be quite honest.

約翰，這些都是非常重要的問題。所以首先，這是我在擔任美鋁首席執行官期間學到的東西，我們缺乏易於解決的問題。我們有很多事情需要復雜的解決方案，需要時間和聰明的方法來解決它們。這就是為什麼我有我的團隊。這就是為什麼我在處理這些事情時充滿信心。老實說，這是我們對執行團隊進行一些改變以確保我們專注於正確的事情的原因之一。

And so we have the bandwidth, we have the right people working on these things. And to be quite honest, particularly on the strategy side, we try and look at things without boundary conditions so that we can find what's best to solve for the long-term viability for this business and for our stockholders across the board as well as our stakeholders as well.

所以我們有帶寬，我們有合適的人來做這些事情。老實說，特別是在戰略方面，我們嘗試在沒有邊界條件的情況下看待事物，這樣我們才能找到最好的解決方案，以實現這項業務、我們的全體股東以及我們的長期生存能力。利益相關者也是如此。

And so when it comes to bauxite, like I said in one of the prior answers, I have a lot of confidence that we're going to be able to work collaboratively and get to a conclusion, a timely conclusion so that we can we can operate these facilities for another few decades. I just -- I have full confidence because everything is lined up. We have the right people working on it, and I think we have the support of our host government.

因此，當談到鋁土礦時，就像我在之前的一個回答中所說的那樣，我非常有信心我們將能夠合作並得出結論，一個及時的結論，這樣我們就可以這些設施再運行幾十年。我只是——我有充分的信心，因為一切都準備好了。我們有合適的人在做這件事，而且我認為我們得到東道國政府的支持。

But that doesn't mean that we can't look at other ways in order to bring in bauxite or to look at other solutions. And so we'll continue to do that. When it comes to your point about solving the energy questions around a plant like Lista or San Ciprián in the short term before we get to these new contracts for the San Ciprián refinery, a lot of times, the deals happen as you get towards deadlines and as you build up consensus with communities and with host governments to find shared and common interest. And a lot of times, it can mean that you're working with suppliers, your energy suppliers so that you can provide that baseload. That's worked really well in the energy contracts that we've built up with Greenalia and Endesa for San Ciprián in the future. We're sort of that baseload customer, and we can get a very advantageous cost position, price position for us.

但這並不意味著我們不能尋找其他方法來引入鋁土礦或尋找其他解決方案。因此，我們將繼續這樣做。當談到在我們為 San Ciprián 煉油廠簽訂這些新合同之前，在短期內解決像 Lista 或 San Ciprián 這樣的工廠的能源問題時，很多時候，交易發生在你接近最後期限和當您與社區和東道國政府建立共識以找到共同利益時。很多時候，這可能意味著您正在與供應商、您的能源供應商合作，以便您可以提供基本負荷。這在我們未來與 Greenalia 和 Endesa 為 San Ciprián 建立的能源合同中非常有效。我們是那種基本負載客戶，我們可以為我們獲得非常有利的成本地位和價格地位。

But we also have to see how the market develops and then look at what -- how the market mechanisms can then come to support those final contracts. So all that to say, they are difficult problems and there's a lot -- it's a pretty simple slide, but there's a lot of work that's going into it. But I think we have the right people working on the right things.

但我們也必須看看市場如何發展，然後看看市場機制如何能夠支持這些最終合同。綜上所述，它們都是難題，而且有很多——這是一張非常簡單的幻燈片，但其中有很多工作要做。但我認為我們有合適的人在做正確的事情。

And I would just come back to my point that we put a lot of creativity in how to solve these things because none of them are easy problems. And the fact is, is that we need to always step back and say, are we doing things as -- with as little complexity and with as much effectiveness as we possibly can? It's a really good question, John, and I appreciate it.

我只想回到我的觀點，即我們在如何解決這些問題上投入了大量的創造力，因為它們都不是簡單的問題。事實是，我們是否需要總是退後一步說，我們做事的方式是——盡可能少的複雜性和盡可能多的有效性？這是一個非常好的問題，約翰，我很感激。

Thank you. Thank you for your efforts as a management team.

謝謝你。感謝您作為管理團隊所做的努力。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Roy Harvey for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Roy Harvey 作閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator, and thanks, once again, to everybody who joined this call. Given his time as CFO of Alcoa Inc. and now Alcoa Corp., I thought it would be good to hear a few words from our good friend, Bill, before we close for today. Bill?

謝謝你，接線員，並再次感謝所有參加此次電話會議的人。鑑於他曾擔任美國鋁業公司首席財務官和現在的美國鋁業公司，我認為在我們今天結束之前聽聽我們的好朋友比爾說幾句話會很好。賬單？

Thanks, Roy. I'll just make a couple of points before we close off. The first point is I'm absolutely thrilled that Molly Beerman is stepping in as CFO. When I look at Molly's abilities, she has tremendous knowledge of our company. She knows the financials better than anybody out there, and she's a great leader. And on top of that, I think she will be a steady hand to help be a business partner for you, Roy. And I am just really happy that she's stepping into the role. So thrilled about that.

謝謝，羅伊。在我們結束之前，我會提出幾點。第一點是，我對 Molly Beerman 即將擔任首席財務官感到非常激動。當我看 Molly 的能力時，她對我們公司非常了解。她比那裡的任何人都更了解財務狀況，而且她是一位出色的領導者。最重要的是，我認為她會成為你的業務合作夥伴的穩定之手，羅伊。我真的很高興她能接任這個角色。太激動了。

I guess, secondly, to address Lucas' question, Lucas, this is my 40th earnings call as the CFO of Inc. and Corp., a full 10 years. And I have enjoyed tremendously the interaction with investors, investors, buy side, sell side. One of the highlights of my career has been working with the people on this call. And many of the most enjoyable times that I've had as CFO have been working with the people on this call. So going on to a new role, I think over time, we may run into each other again. So it's probably not goodbye for now but maybe just we'll see you in the future. So Roy, thanks for the opportunity to address the group.

我想，其次，為了解決盧卡斯的問題，盧卡斯，這是我作為 Inc. and Corp. 首席財務官的第 40 次財報電話會議，整整 10 年。我非常享受與投資者、投資者、買方、賣方的互動。我職業生涯中的亮點之一就是在這次電話會議上與人們一起工作。我作為首席財務官度過的許多最愉快的時光都是在與這個電話會議上的人們一起工作。所以繼續擔任新角色，我想隨著時間的推移，我們可能會再次相遇。所以現在可能不是再見，但也許我們會在未來再見。羅伊，感謝有機會在小組中發言。

Yes. Thanks, Bill. And as you know, he's not going that far away. Operations are critically important to us. He does sit next to me in our Pittsburgh office, and we're moving him out and moving Molly in. So the value of my real estate is definitely going up because of better neighbors.

是的。謝謝，比爾。如你所知，他不會走那麼遠。運營對我們至關重要。在我們匹茲堡的辦公室裡，他確實坐在我旁邊，我們把他搬出去，把莫莉搬進來。所以我的房地產價值肯定會因為更好的鄰居而上漲。

But in the end, not to belabor the point, in the end, I think we've got the right people doing the right thing. Molly is going to do a great job as CFO. Bill is going to do a great job as COO. And we have complex issues but we've got the right team that are working on them. So I just want to, once again, reiterate that I appreciate everybody's continued interest in the company.

但最後，我不想強調這一點，我認為我們有合適的人在做正確的事。作為首席財務官，莫莉將乾得很好。作為首席運營官，比爾將乾得很好。我們有復雜的問題，但我們有合適的團隊來解決這些問題。所以我只想再次重申，我感謝大家對公司的持續關注。

I really do believe that we've built, over these 6 years, a strong foundation. And I also believe that we're working on the right things, that we're driving -- continuing to drive improvement and making sure that we're doing things in the right way. So these next few months will be gone before we know it, so I look forward to speaking with you again in April for our first quarter 2023 results. And we're going to have Molly Beerman at my side answering questions and helping us walk through the earnings. So thank you to everybody. Have a good night. Stay very safe, and we'll talk to you soon.

我真的相信，在這 6 年中，我們已經建立了堅實的基礎。而且我也相信我們正在做正確的事情，我們正在推動 - 繼續推動改進並確保我們以正確的方式做事。所以接下來的幾個月會在我們知道之前就過去了，所以我期待在 4 月份再次與您討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。我們將讓 Molly Beerman 在我身邊回答問題並幫助我們了解收益。所以謝謝大家。祝你晚安。保持安全，我們會盡快與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。