美國鋁公司 (AA) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加美國鋁業公司 2022 年第三季度收益報告和電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. James Dwyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 James Dwyer 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by Roy Harvey, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer; and William Oplinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Roy and Bill.

謝謝大家，大家好。今天，美國鋁業公司總裁兼首席執行官 Roy Harvey 加入了我的行列；和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 William Oplinger。我們將在 Roy 和 Bill 發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與受各種假設和警告約束的未來事件和預期有關的前瞻性陳述。可能導致公司實際結果與這些陳述產生重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示文稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.

此外，我們在本演示文稿中包含了一些非公認會計原則的財務指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬可以在今天的演示文稿的附錄中找到。我們今天討論中對 EBITDA 的任何提及均指調整後的 EBITDA。

Finally, as previously announced, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website.

最後，正如之前宣布的，收益發布和幻燈片演示可在我們的網站上找到。

With that, here's Roy.

有了這個，這裡是羅伊。

Thank you, Jim, and thanks to everyone for joining our call today. As always, we'll first review the quarterly financial results, then discuss our markets and our company. And finally, we'll answer questions after we conclude our prepared remarks.

謝謝你，吉姆，也感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。與往常一樣，我們將首先審查季度財務業績，然後討論我們的市場和公司。最後，我們將在結束準備好的發言後回答問題。

Before we get into the details, however, I'd like to quickly highlight the work that we've done at Alcoa over these past several years to strengthen our company, so we can be successful through all market cycles. We've built a much stronger foundation. Our balance sheet is strong, and we are well positioned to address current challenges, focusing on driving improvement on items within our direct control. We also remain future-focused as the long-term fundamentals for the aluminum industry remain bright, and we know that we are the company to deliver in a world where strong ESG performance is required.

然而，在我們進入細節之前，我想快速強調一下我們在過去幾年中在 Alcoa 所做的工作，以加強我們的公司，因此我們可以在所有市場週期中取得成功。我們已經建立了一個更強大的基礎。我們的資產負債表很強勁，我們有能力應對當前的挑戰，專注於推動我們直接控制的項目的改進。由於鋁行業的長期基本面依然光明，我們也仍然著眼於未來，而且我們知道我們是在需要強大 ESG 績效的世界中提供服務的公司。

Now turning to some thoughts on the quarterly results. First and most importantly, we did not have any fatalities or life-altering serious injuries in the third quarter. Our commitment to safety is an unwavering priority.

現在轉向對季度業績的一些想法。首先也是最重要的是，我們在第三季度沒有任何死亡或改變生命的重傷。我們對安全的承諾是一個堅定不移的優先事項。

On our financial results, our quarterly net loss was driven primarily by a noncash charge for pension annuitization, coupled with the sequential decline in aluminum and alumina prices and higher costs for energy and raw materials. In the quarter, we continued to maintain a strong balance sheet and provided returns to our stockholders. We finished the third quarter with a cash balance of $1.4 billion after paying cash dividend of $18 million and repurchasing $150 million of stock. We completed another pension annuity purchase, which transferred approximately $1 billion in pension obligations and related assets.

在我們的財務業績中，我們的季度淨虧損主要是由於養老金年金化的非現金費用，加上鋁和氧化鋁價格的連續下跌以及能源和原材料成本的上升。在本季度，我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表，並為我們的股東提供回報。在支付了 1800 萬美元的現金股息並回購了 1.5 億美元的股票後，我們第三季度的現金餘額為 14 億美元。我們完成了另一筆養老金購買，轉移了大約 10 億美元的養老金義務和相關資產。

Next, we're continuing to take actions on our operating levels. Russia's war against Ukraine has created uncertainty and a significant energy crisis, which has impacts globally but is most acutely seen in Europe. This situation is also having dramatic knock-on effects for the global aluminum industry, which requires reliable and affordable energy.

接下來，我們將繼續對我們的運營水平採取行動。俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭造成了不確定性和嚴重的能源危機，這對全球產生了影響，但在歐洲最為明顯。這種情況也對需要可靠且負擔得起的能源的全球鋁業產生了巨大的連鎖反應。

While our company has limited overall exposure to spot energy costs, 2 of our plants in Europe experienced significant losses in the quarter driven by the volatility in the European energy market. Our list of plant in Southern Norway is our smallest smelter. And in September, we curtailed 1/3 of its 94,000 metric tons of annual capacity to mitigate spiking electricity costs. We have, however, put in place a new fixed price contract that is expected to improve the situation as we move forward, beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. The other challenge is at our San Ciprián alumina refinery in Spain. Costs for natural gas have been exorbitant and remain volatile. In the third quarter, we reduced production to 50% of the site's capacity.

雖然我們公司對現貨能源成本的整體敞口有限，但由於歐洲能源市場的波動，我們在歐洲的兩家工廠在本季度出現了重大虧損。我們在挪威南部的工廠名單是我們最小的冶煉廠。 9 月，我們削減了 94,000 公噸年產能的 1/3，以緩解飆升的電力成本。然而，我們已經制定了一份新的固定價格合同，預計將在我們從今年第四季度開始向前推進的過程中改善這種情況。另一個挑戰是我們在西班牙的 San Ciprián 氧化鋁精煉廠。天然氣的成本高昂且持續波動。在第三季度，我們將生產量減少到該站點產能的 50%。

In other operational adjustments, we continued to progress on the full restart at the Alumar smelter in Brazil and on the restart of some modest capacity at the Portland Aluminum joint venture in Australia. For those sites, we have competitive medium- to long-term energy agreements. Also, the power at Alumar will be fully renewable, and we're working to boost the percentages of renewables for the Australian smelter.

在其他運營調整中，我們繼續推進巴西 Alumar 冶煉廠的全面重啟和澳大利亞波特蘭鋁業合資企業的部分產能重啟。對於這些站點，我們有具有競爭力的中長期能源協議。此外，Alumar 的電力將完全可再生，我們正在努力提高澳大利亞冶煉廠的可再生能源百分比。

From an innovation perspective, we announced last month a new high-performance alloy for the billet market that has advantages for a wide range of markets, including high-demanding structural applications in the automotive and construction industries.

從創新的角度來看，我們上個月宣布了一種用於方坯市場的新型高性能合金，該合金在廣泛的市場中具有優勢，包括汽車和建築行業的高要求結構應用。

And from a sustainability standpoint, we are proud to now see all our Brazilian locations certified to the Aluminum Stewardship Initiative's performance standards with the addition of our Poços de Caldas site, which includes bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminum casting.

從可持續發展的角度來看，我們很自豪現在看到我們所有的巴西工廠都通過了鋁業管理倡議的績效標準，並增加了我們的 Poços de Caldas 工廠，其中包括鋁土礦開採、氧化鋁精煉和鋁鑄造。

Finally, we remain bullish on aluminum's long-term fundamentals. While the industry is certainly seeing challenges in the short term, we continue to believe the future of our commodity is bright as energy scarcity and decarbonization goals are expected to positively influence the aluminum industry's fundamentals. And in this context, Alcoa's history and focus on our portfolio, our R&D programs and sustainability credentials can help us realize greater shareholder value.

最後，我們仍然看好鋁的長期基本面。雖然該行業在短期內肯定會面臨挑戰，但我們仍然相信我們商品的未來是光明的，因為預計能源稀缺和脫碳目標將對鋁行業的基本面產生積極影響。在這種情況下，美國鋁業的歷史和對我們產品組合的關注、我們的研發計劃和可持續發展證書可以幫助我們實現更大的股東價值。

For now, though, let me turn it over to Bill to walk through our third quarter numbers. Bill, please go ahead.

不過，現在讓我把它交給比爾來看看我們第三季度的數據。比爾，請繼續。

Thanks, Roy. The results for the quarter were a net loss of $746 million or $4.17 per share. Special items in the quarter totaled $686 million, with $629 million in noncash charges related to the $1 billion U.S. pension annuitization that occurred in August. Other special items include the mark-to-market of energy contracts and the closure of a long-curtailed magnesium smelter in Addy, Washington.

謝謝，羅伊。本季度的結果是淨虧損 7.46 億美元或每股 4.17 美元。本季度的特殊項目總額為 6.86 億美元，其中 6.29 億美元的非現金費用與 8 月份發生的 10 億美元美國養老金年金化有關。其他特殊項目包括按市值計價的能源合同以及關閉位於華盛頓艾迪的一家長期停產的鎂冶煉廠。

Third quarter 2022 revenues declined $793 million to $2.85 billion on lower aluminum and alumina prices. Those lower revenues translated into EBITDA of $210 million, $703 million lower than the prior period. Adjusted net loss was $60 million, and diluted loss per share was $0.33 per share.

由於鋁和氧化鋁價格下跌，2022 年第三季度的收入下降了 7.93 億美元至 28.5 億美元。這些較低的收入轉化為 2.1 億美元的 EBITDA，比上一期間減少了 7.03 億美元。調整後的淨虧損為 6000 萬美元，每股攤薄虧損為 0.33 美元。

Let's take a closer look at the sequential change in EBITDA. When comparing the third quarter EBITDA to the second quarter, the largest driver was $516 million of lower metal and alumina prices, followed by higher energy and raw material costs of $126 million. These factors combined for $642 million of the $703 million EBITDA decline. The other category consists of the volume and cost impacts on intersegment eliminations and the net of various nonrecurring items primarily in the Alumina segment in both the second and third quarters.

讓我們仔細看看 EBITDA 的順序變化。將第三季度的 EBITDA 與第二季度進行比較，最大的驅動因素是 5.16 億美元的金屬和氧化鋁價格下跌，其次是能源和原材料成本上漲 1.26 億美元。在 7.03 億美元的 EBITDA 下降中，這些因素合計為 6.42 億美元。另一類包括對分部間抵銷的數量和成本影響，以及主要在第二和第三季度氧化鋁分部的各種非經常性項目的淨額。

In the segments, Bauxite improved $10 million on higher intercompany pricing and better volume, partially offset by lower unfavorable mix of contracts at CBG and higher production costs. In the Alumina segment, the $274 million EBITDA decline was due to lower index prices, higher production costs, higher gas prices at San Ciprián and higher caustic prices, partially offset by benefits of the San Ciprián refinery production reduction.

在這些領域，鋁土礦因公司間定價增加和產量增加而增加了 1000 萬美元，部分被 CBG 合同的不利組合減少和生產成本增加所抵消。在氧化鋁部門，2.74 億美元的 EBITDA 下降是由於較低的指數價格、較高的生產成本、較高的 San Ciprián 天然氣價格和較高的苛性鹼價格，部分被 San Ciprián 煉油廠減產的好處所抵消。

The largest EBITDA decline was in aluminum, $444 million, due primarily to lower metal prices and the inability of production cost improvements to fully offset higher energy costs, higher carbon costs and slightly weaker value-added pricing. Below the segment level, other corporate expense reductions more than offset slightly higher transformation and intersegment elimination impacts.

鋁的 EBITDA 下降幅度最大，為 4.44 億美元，這主要是由於金屬價格下跌以及生產成本改善無法完全抵消更高的能源成本、更高的碳成本和略微疲軟的增值定價。在部門級別以下，其他公司費用減少抵消了略高的轉型和部門間消除影響。

Let's take a deeper dive into raw material costs. The cost of major raw materials increased substantially in the third quarter in both the Alumina and Aluminum segments. When converted to a percentage of our selling price, cost for carbon materials used in the smelters has averaged 12% for the 2017 to 2021 5-year period. In the third quarter, costs increased 18%. The difference between carbon costs being at a 5-year average versus the third quarter of percentage was an unfavorable impact of approximately $100 million in the quarter.

讓我們更深入地了解原材料成本。氧化鋁和鋁板塊的主要原材料成本在第三季度均大幅上升。換算成我們銷售價格的百分比後，2017 年至 2021 年 5 年期間，冶煉廠使用的碳材料成本平均為 12%。第三季度，成本增加了 18%。 5 年平均碳成本與第三季度百分比之間的差異是該季度約 1 億美元的不利影響。

Likewise, caustic costs have run about 9% of the alumina selling price over the prior 5 years. Third quarter 2022 caustic costs in the Alumina segment rose approximately 60% compared to the 5-year average to 15%. That impact was approximately $75 million in the third quarter. Over time, we expect carbon and caustic costs as a percentage of sales price to normalize and revert to the mean.

同樣，在過去 5 年中，苛性鹼成本佔氧化鋁售價的 9% 左右。與 5 年平均水平相比，2022 年第三季度氧化鋁部門的苛性鹼成本上升了約 60%，達到 15%。第三季度的影響約為 7500 萬美元。隨著時間的推移，我們預計碳和苛性鹼成本佔銷售價格的百分比將正常化並恢復到平均值。

Let's move on to the balance sheet and capital returns. We returned $168 million of capital in the third quarter, $150 million of share repurchases and $18 million of quarterly dividends. Year-to-date capital returns totaled $555 million, and year-to-date return on equity is 25.9%. The balance sheet remained strong with a $1.4 billion cash balance and proportional adjusted net debt of $1.3 billion. Days working capital did increase in the quarter to 50 days on lower revenues, even though working capital itself declined $143 million. Free cash flow, less noncontrolling interest distributions, was essentially breakeven in the quarter.

讓我們繼續討論資產負債表和資本回報。我們在第三季度返還了 1.68 億美元的資本、1.5 億美元的股票回購和 1800 萬美元的季度股息。年初至今的資本回報總額為 5.55 億美元，年初至今的股本回報率為 25.9%。資產負債表保持強勁，現金餘額為 14 億美元，按比例調整後的淨債務為 13 億美元。儘管營運資金本身下降了 1.43 億美元，但由於收入下降，本季度的營運資金天數確實增加到 50 天。自由現金流，減去非控制性權益分配，在本季度基本上是盈虧平衡的。

Turning to cash flow. The third quarter cash balance declined $206 million sequentially to $1.4 billion, primarily due to capital returns to stockholders of $168 million, EBITDA and releases of working capital funded capital expenditures, cash income taxes, rehabilitation spending and other cash uses. On a year-to-date basis, our largest use of cash remains increased working capital, closely followed by returning capital to stockholders, cash income taxes and capital expenditures. For the fourth quarter, we expect working capital to continue its recent trend of being a source of cash.

轉向現金流。第三季度現金餘額環比下降 2.06 億美元至 14 億美元，主要是由於股東的資本回報為 1.68 億美元、EBITDA 以及營運資金資助的資本支出、現金所得稅、康復支出和其他現金用途的釋放。年初至今，我們最大的現金用途仍然是增加營運資金，緊隨其後的是向股東返還資本、現金所得稅和資本支出。對於第四季度，我們預計營運資金將繼續其近期成為現金來源的趨勢。

Now for the outlook for the remainder of the year. We are refining our full year 2022 outlook, starting with shipments. As a result of the lower operating rate at San Ciprián refinery and lower-than-expected Australian refinery production, we are lowering our full year bauxite shipments 1 million tons to a range of 43 million to 44 million tons and moving alumina shipments lower by 0.5 million tons to 13.1 million to 13.3 million tons. The aluminum shipments outlook remains unchanged.

現在是今年剩餘時間的展望。我們正在完善我們的 2022 年全年展望，從出貨量開始。由於圣西普里安煉油廠開工率下降和澳大利亞煉油廠產量低於預期，我們將全年鋁土礦出貨量降低 100 萬噸至 4300 萬噸至 4400 萬噸，並將氧化鋁出貨量降低 0.5百萬噸至 1310 萬噸至 1330 萬噸。鋁出貨量前景保持不變。

There are several improvements versus prior projections totaling $40 million expected on the full year income statement. In EBITDA, we expect transformation expenses to improve $5 million and other corporate expenses to improve $10 million. Below the EBITDA line, we expect depreciation to improve $20 million and nonoperating pension and OPEB expense to improve $5 million. For full year cash impacts, we expect environmental and ARO payments to improve $15 million to $140 million.

與之前預計的全年損益表總計 4000 萬美元的預測相比，有幾項改進。在 EBITDA 中，我們預計轉型費用將增加 500 萬美元，其他公司費用將增加 1000 萬美元。在 EBITDA 線以下，我們預計折舊將增加 2000 萬美元，非經營性養老金和 OPEB 費用將增加 500 萬美元。對於全年現金影響，我們預計環境和 ARO 付款將增加 1500 萬美元至 1.4 億美元。

For the fourth quarter, excluding index sales prices or currency impacts, we expect improvement in many areas. In bauxite, we expect adjusted EBITDA to improve approximately $5 million on higher third-party shipments. In alumina, we expect approximately $20 million in lower energy costs at the San Ciprián refinery. Additionally, we expect the benefits of the San Ciprián curtailment to offset the impact of lower bauxite quality in Australia and higher raw material costs. In the Aluminum segment, we expect alumina costs to be favorable by $30 million, also higher raw material costs, lower Warrick power plant sales, and lower value-add product premiums are expected to be offset by lower energy costs at Lista.

對於第四季度，不包括指數銷售價格或貨幣影響，我們預計許多領域都會有所改善。在鋁土礦方面，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將因第三方出貨量增加而提高約 500 萬美元。在氧化鋁方面，我們預計 San Ciprián 煉油廠的能源成本將降低約 2000 萬美元。此外，我們預計 San Ciprián 削減的好處將抵消澳大利亞鋁土礦質量下降和原材料成本上升的影響。在鋁部門，我們預計氧化鋁成本將有利 3000 萬美元，更高的原材料成本、更低的 Warrick 發電廠銷售額以及更低的增值產品溢價預計將被 Lista 更低的能源成本所抵消。

Further, due to rapid metal price changes at the end of the third quarter and inventory adjustments made to net realizable value, we expect EBITDA in the fourth quarter to be $40 million higher than calculated using prorated annual metal sensitivities. In addition, there's a potential negative impact from government action. The Norwegian government has issued a budget proposal that limits CO2 compensation to be paid in 2023 based on 2022 power purchase. If the proposal is approved, the unfavorable sequential EBITDA impact in the fourth quarter would be approximately $35 million as we reverse this accrued benefit.

此外，由於第三季度末金屬價格的快速變化以及對可變現淨值的庫存調整，我們預計第四季度的 EBITDA 將比使用按比例分配的年度金屬敏感性計算的高 4000 萬美元。此外，政府行動也可能產生負面影響。挪威政府已經發布了一項預算提案，根據 2022 年的電力購買限制在 2023 年支付的二氧化碳補償。如果該提案獲得批准，第四季度的不利連續 EBITDA 影響將約為 3500 萬美元，因為我們扭轉了這一應計收益。

Finally, a word on taxes. Based on recent pricing, the company expects fourth quarter '22 operational tax expense to be approximately $50 million to $60 million.

最後，談談稅收。根據最近的定價，該公司預計 22 年第四季度的營業稅費用約為 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元。

Now I'll turn it back to Roy.

現在我把它轉回給羅伊。

Thanks, Bill. I'd like to start my comments by focusing on the long-term fundamentals of our markets. While the world is currently in a period of heightened uncertainty, the outlook for our industry remains very positive. And this view isn't merely supported by the fact that year-over-year demand is consistently increasing. That's been the case for more than a decade. Rather, I'd like to highlight the structural changes driven by evolving energy markets on both the demand and supply sides of our industry.

謝謝，比爾。我想從關注我們市場的長期基本面開始我的評論。儘管世界目前處於不確定性加劇的時期，但我們行業的前景仍然非常樂觀。這一觀點不僅得到了需求同比持續增長這一事實的支持。十多年來一直如此。相反，我想強調由不斷變化的能源市場在我們行業的需求和供應方面推動的結構性變化。

Both the source and cost of energy supplies help determine whether a facility can compete economically. Renewable energy provides a further differentiation through lower carbon emissions. Still, decarbonization is not just a facet of energy sourcing and, therefore, aluminum production, but it is also embedded in the choices of our customers and, ultimately, for their final consumers.

能源供應的來源和成本都有助於確定設施是否能夠在經濟上競爭。可再生能源通過降低碳排放提供了進一步的差異化。儘管如此，脫碳不僅是能源採購的一個方面，因此也是鋁生產的一個方面，而且它也嵌入到我們客戶的選擇中，並最終影響到他們的最終消費者。

For example, one tactic to reduce carbon emissions is to reduce vehicle weight by replacing heavier metals with lightweight aluminum, especially during the transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles. On the left-hand side of the slide, you'll see that the amount of aluminum in passenger vehicles in North America, as one example, is expected to increase by nearly 25% by 2030 using 2020 at the baseline. This change is primarily driven by the transition to electric vehicles, which, on average, contained 40% more aluminum than vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

例如，減少碳排放的一種策略是通過用輕質鋁代替較重的金屬來減輕車輛重量，尤其是在從內燃機到電動汽車的過渡期間。在幻燈片的左側，您會看到北美乘用車中的鋁含量，例如，以 2020 年為基線，預計到 2030 年將增加近 25%。這種變化主要是由向電動汽車的過渡推動的，平均而言，電動汽車的鋁含量比內燃機驅動的汽車多 40%。

Another important end-use market for aluminum is packaging. Demand in that sector is expected to increase steadily and consistently. Aluminum is a sustainable choice for packaging due to its recyclability, its low weight and the format that makes it easier to ship, all of which helps reduce emissions.

鋁的另一個重要最終用途市場是包裝。預計該行業的需求將穩步增長。鋁是一種可持續的包裝選擇，因為它具有可回收性、重量輕和便於運輸的形式，所有這些都有助於減少排放。

Next, both the generation and transmission of solar and wind power will require more aluminum than other forms of energy, such as thermal, hydro or nuclear. Solar generation, for example, requires approximately 13 metric tons of aluminum per megawatt of generating capacity compared to coal that only requires about 1 metric ton. While these examples are meant to illustrate my point, they demonstrate that demand for our commodities should continue to grow long into the future and is positively supported by decarbonization and the trend toward renewable energy.

接下來，太陽能和風能的發電和傳輸都將需要比其他形式的能源（如熱能、水能或核能）更多的鋁。例如，太陽能發電每兆瓦發電量需要大約 13 噸鋁，而煤炭只需要大約 1 噸。雖然這些例子旨在說明我的觀點，但它們表明，對我們商品的需求在未來很長一段時間內應該會繼續增長，並受到脫碳和可再生能源趨勢的積極支持。

Now moving to the right-hand side of the slide. To reduce their carbon footprints, we are continuing to see aluminum producers move to renewable power and away from coal, which is still the predominant source of energy in the global aluminum industry today. Renewable energy sources, as we know, are constrained by availability, posing a limit for capacity to grow in the future. Of the 15 million metric tons of new primary smelting capacity that we believe is required by 2030, only 6 million metric tons are currently expected to be sourced with renewable energy. This is one area where Alcoa is already a standout. 81% of our global smelting portfolio is powered by renewables, mostly hydro and some wind. And we're continuing to work on boosting that percentage in the years ahead.

現在移動到幻燈片的右側。為了減少碳足跡，我們繼續看到鋁生產商轉向可再生能源並遠離煤炭，煤炭仍然是當今全球鋁工業的主要能源來源。正如我們所知，可再生能源受到可用性的限制，限制了未來的產能增長。在我們認為到 2030 年需要 1500 萬噸新的初級冶煉產能中，目前預計只有 600 萬噸來自可再生能源。這是美國鋁業公司已經脫穎而出的一個領域。我們全球 81% 的冶煉產品組合由可再生能源提供動力，主要是水力和一些風能。我們將繼續努力在未來幾年提高這一比例。

Finally, energy is also affecting the amount of aluminum produced. Today's aluminum market has been significantly impacted by the European energy crisis, which is rooted in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Due to the increased power costs in Europe, it has been reported that more than 1 million metric tons of aluminum production have been taken offline, with another 1 million metric tons under threat. The combination of increased uncertainty, weakening European demand and the global energy market distortions created by the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine demonstrate how quickly our energy markets and, therefore, the aluminum industry can be impacted.

最後，能源也影響著鋁的產量。今天的鋁市場受到了歐洲能源危機的顯著影響，歐洲能源危機的根源在於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭。由於歐洲電力成本增加，據報導，超過 100 萬噸的鋁生產已停產，另有 100 萬噸受到威脅。不確定性增加、歐洲需求疲軟以及俄羅斯對烏克蘭的持續侵略造成的全球能源市場扭曲表明我們的能源市場以及鋁業受到影響的速度有多快。

In March of this year, our company made the proactive decision to cease buying raw materials from or selling our products to Russian businesses. That had an adverse financial impact on our business, but it was the right decision to make. And now we are seeing an increasing number of customers implement this same policy.

今年3月，我公司主動決定停止向俄羅斯企業購買原材料或向俄羅斯企業出售我們的產品。這對我們的業務產生了不利的財務影響，但這是正確的決定。現在我們看到越來越多的客戶實施同樣的政策。

We believe governments should consider sanctions on Russian metal as the distortions in the energy market can be directly linked to the invasion of Ukraine. And in the meantime, Russian companies continue to produce and sell their metal, while North American and European producers are curtailing smelters amidst declining aluminum prices, skyrocketing energy costs and supply chain issues. And thus, we believe urgent action is necessary by the U.S. and its allies.

我們認為各國政府應考慮對俄羅斯金屬實施制裁，因為能源市場的扭曲可能與入侵烏克蘭直接相關。與此同時，俄羅斯公司繼續生產和銷售他們的金屬，而北美和歐洲生產商則在鋁價下跌、能源成本飆升和供應鏈問題的情況下削減冶煉廠。因此，我們認為美國及其盟國有必要採取緊急行動。

Now let us take a closer look at what is happening in our industry today where, again, energy is the key driver. The fundamental difference in this downturn is that it is being driven by an energy crisis centered in Europe, and thus, its first impact has been to electricity-intensive industries such as aluminum smelters. And thus, what we see today is an industry with significant supply challenges, followed by impacts to aluminum demand as downstream costs continue to inflate and significant uncertainty weighs on economic growth.

現在讓我們仔細看看當今行業正在發生什麼，能源再次成為關鍵驅動力。這種低迷的根本區別在於，它是由以歐洲為中心的能源危機驅動的，因此，它的第一個影響是對鋁冶煉廠等電力密集型行業的影響。因此，我們今天看到的是一個面臨巨大供應挑戰的行業，隨後隨著下游成本持續上漲以及巨大的不確定性對經濟增長造成壓力，對鋁需求的影響。

The chart shows data on historical trends for aluminum supply and demand, including days of consumption for inventories held in LME warehouses. The data illustrate the uniqueness of this energy-driven downturn. During the global financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, sharp downturns in global demand drove significant increases in inventories and sharp declines in the price of aluminum products.

該圖表顯示了鋁供需的歷史趨勢數據，包括 LME 倉庫中庫存的消耗天數。數據說明了這種能源驅動型衰退的獨特性。在 2008 年全球金融危機和 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行期間，全球需求急劇下滑導致庫存大幅增加，鋁產品價格大幅下跌。

I would note here that we have seen significant delivery of metal to LME warehouses over these last few days. We believe that this metal represents material that was already held in global inventories and is, thus, more representative of a shuffle between inventories rather than simple overproduction. Anecdotally, we continue to see strength in demand for most of our value-add products in North America and Europe while noting uncertainty in demand for some products, particularly for billet in Europe. These facts help to explain the environment where we find ourselves.

我要在這裡指出，在過去幾天裡，我們看到大量金屬向 LME 倉庫交付。我們認為，這種金屬代表了已經存在於全球庫存中的材料，因此更能代表庫存之間的洗牌，而不是簡單的生產過剩。有趣的是，我們繼續看到北美和歐洲對我們大多數增值產品的需求強勁，同時注意到對某些產品的需求存在不確定性，尤其是歐洲的方坯。這些事實有助於解釋我們所處的環境。

Raw material and energy prices are at historic highs, while prices have notched downwards based on continuing uncertainty. We can further illustrate this situation by examining global cost positions. For Chinese smelting capacity that is operating, we believe that between 20% to 30% is operating on a cash-negative basis. In the rest of the world, between 45% to 55% of aluminum production is currently operating under water. In alumina, the percentage of refineries operating on a cash-negative basis is less than what we're seeing in metal but still significant. In China, approximately 25% to 35% of refineries are operating at a loss. And the rest of the world is lower, ranging from 10% to 20% operating on a cash-negative basis.

原材料和能源價格處於歷史高位，而價格由於持續的不確定性而有所下降。我們可以通過檢查全球成本狀況來進一步說明這種情況。對於正在運營的中國冶煉產能，我們認為有 20% 至 30% 是在負現金基礎上運營的。在世界其他地區，目前有 45% 至 55% 的鋁生產在水下進行。在氧化鋁方面，以負現金為基礎運營的煉油廠的百分比低於我們在金屬方面看到的情況，但仍然很重要。在中國，大約 25% 到 35% 的煉油廠處於虧損狀態。世界其他地區的比例較低，在負現金基礎上運營的比例從 10% 到 20% 不等。

Now let's talk about our specific impacts focused on 2 locations and what we're doing to address the challenges. In 2021, energy comprised approximately 27% of our company's total alumina refining costs. In aluminum smelting, electricity costs were approximately 31% of the total cost of production. Company-wide, our 2 greatest areas of exposure to spot energy prices are the Lista smelter and the San Ciprián refinery, both in Europe.

現在讓我們談談我們對 2 個地點的具體影響以及我們為應對挑戰所做的工作。 2021 年，能源約占我們公司氧化鋁精煉總成本的 27%。在鋁冶煉中，電力成本約佔總生產成本的 31%。在公司範圍內，我們對現貨能源價格的兩個最大風險敞口是歐洲的 Lista 冶煉廠和 San Ciprián 煉油廠。

Let's start first with our smelter in Southern Norway. While our company overall only has about 5% of its smelting portfolio exposed to spot energy prices, this smelter represented approximately 65% of this spot exposure in the third quarter. In fact, we had some periods when we were paying as much as $600 per megawatt hour, and the site lost $47 million in EBITDA in the third quarter. In August, we made the decision to curtail one of the sites, 3 potlines, to mitigate the high cost of energy. Importantly, we also negotiated an agreement with our power utility to provide more predictable energy costs throughout the remainder of the year and into 2023. We expect the site to see significant improvements in the fourth quarter as a result, and we are continuing to monitor the situation.

讓我們先從我們位於挪威南部的冶煉廠開始。雖然我們公司總體上只有約 5% 的冶煉投資組合受到現貨能源價格的影響，但該冶煉廠在第三季度的現貨風險敞口中約佔 65%。事實上，我們曾在某些時期支付高達每兆瓦時 600 美元的費用，而該網站在第三季度的 EBITDA 損失了 4700 萬美元。 8 月，我們決定縮減其中一個站點，即 3 條生產線，以降低高昂的能源成本。重要的是，我們還與我們的電力公司談判了一項協議，以在今年剩餘時間和 2023 年提供更可預測的能源成本。我們預計該網站將在第四季度看到顯著改善，我們將繼續監測情況。

Next, let's turn to the San Ciprián refinery. In January of this year, one of San Ciprián's 2 natural gas suppliers terminated its contract that supplied approximately 50% of the refinery's natural gas demand until June 2022 and 25% from July to December of this year. While we've been negotiating new contracts, we've been exposed to spot rates since February.

接下來，讓我們轉向圣西普里安煉油廠。今年 1 月，San Ciprián 的兩家天然氣供應商之一終止了其供應該煉油廠天然氣需求的約 50% 至 2022 年 6 月和今年 7 月至 12 月期間的 25% 的合同。雖然我們一直在談判新合同，但自 2 月以來我們一直面臨即期匯率的風險。

The costs of natural gas in Spain have been exorbitant. In the third quarter, we began to cut our production at this facility so we'd use less gas and avoid these high costs. At the end of the quarter, we had adjusted production to approximately 50% of the site's 1.6 million metric tons of annual capacity. However, gas prices continue to escalate, eroding the savings from reduced production.

西班牙的天然氣成本過高。在第三季度，我們開始削減該工廠的產量，以便我們使用更少的天然氣並避免這些高成本。在本季度末，我們已將產量調整為該工廠 160 萬噸年產能的約 50%。然而，天然氣價格繼續上漲，侵蝕了減產帶來的儲蓄。

In the third quarter, the San Ciprián refinery lost $69 million in EBITDA due to these conditions. The high volatility for gas cost in Spain makes future estimates difficult to predict. We are actively reviewing the location's operating levels and commercial options, including considering further adjustments to production as well as evaluating options for support. We will continue to look at ways to improve the cost structure at both facilities.

在第三季度，由於這些情況，圣西普里安煉油廠的 EBITDA 損失了 6900 萬美元。西班牙天然氣成本的高波動性使得未來的估計難以預測。我們正在積極審查該地點的運營水平和商業選擇，包括考慮進一步調整生產以及評估支持選項。我們將繼續尋找改善這兩個設施成本結構的方法。

Let me now discuss some other items that we're working to improve. In our global smelting portfolio, we're continuing to address our overall capacity, including progressing with restarting previously idle capacity at 2 sites. In Brazil, we continued to add new operations at the Alumar joint venture where the restart continues to progress. Alcoa's fully owned subsidiary in Brazil owns 60% of the Alumar smelter or 268,000 metric tons, with the remaining percentage belonging to South32. We expect most of the smelter's capacity to be operational by the end of the first quarter of 2023.

現在讓我討論一下我們正在努力改進的其他一些項目。在我們的全球冶煉組合中，我們將繼續解決我們的整體產能問題，包括重新啟動 2 個站點之前閒置的產能。在巴西，我們繼續在 Alumar 合資企業增加新業務，該合資企業的重啟仍在繼續。美國鋁業公司在巴西的全資子公司擁有 Alumar 冶煉廠 60% 的股份，即 268,000 公噸，其餘部分屬於 South32。我們預計該冶煉廠的大部分產能將在 2023 年第一季度末投入運營。

Separately, in the United States, on July 1, we safely curtailed one of the 3 operating smelting lines at our Warrick facility. We experienced staffing shortages to smelter, and the decision to curtail one line allowed us to focus on stability for the 2 remaining operating lines.

另外，在美國，7 月 1 日，我們安全地縮減了 Warrick 工廠 3 條運營中的冶煉線之一。我們經歷了冶煉廠的人員短缺，削減一條生產線的決定使我們能夠專注於其餘 2 條運營線的穩定性。

In Spain, we've now reached 2 agreements for wind power that would support 75% of the energy needs for the restart of the San Ciprián smelter. We reached an agreement in 2021 to curtail the smelter until early 2024 to work on a plan to develop an energy solution, which will depend on a viable Spanish energy framework and a permitting process for the wind farms. It's good to see continued progress on this solution, but there is still much work to be done.

在西班牙，我們現在已經達成了 2 項風電協議，這些協議將支持 San Ciprián 冶煉廠重啟的 75% 的能源需求。我們在 2021 年達成協議，將在 2024 年初之前削減冶煉廠，以製定能源解決方案的計劃，這將取決於可行的西班牙能源框架和風電場的許可程序。很高興看到此解決方案的持續進展，但仍有許多工作要做。

Next, turning to the right hand of this slide. In Australia, we are now implementing plans to improve the performance in our refinery system so we can recover from lower volumes that were due to unplanned outages and maintenance. We are bringing a renewed focus on system-wide performance, including our people, processes and equipment.

接下來，轉向這張幻燈片的右手邊。在澳大利亞，我們現在正在實施提高煉油系統性能的計劃，以便我們能夠從因計劃外停機和維護導致的產量下降中恢復過來。我們正在重新關注整個系統的性能，包括我們的人員、流程和設備。

From a people perspective, we're actively working to effectively manage the impacts of accelerated employee turnover due to higher-than-historical levels of attrition and retirement. In our processes, we are working to redeploy maintenance and operating strategies for all equipment and make our reliability excellence program even more friendly to users. So it can support a system that includes visible and relevant metrics, which are tracked with clear trigger levels for escalation.

從人員的角度來看，我們正在積極努力有效地管理由於離職率和退休率高於歷史水平而導致的員工流動加速的影響。在我們的流程中，我們正在努力為所有設備重新部署維護和操作策略，並使我們的可靠性卓越計劃對用戶更加友好。因此，它可以支持包含可見和相關指標的系統，這些指標通過明確的觸發級別進行跟踪以進行升級。

Also, we're working to address the challenges from lower-grade bauxite delivered from our colocated mines. Variability in bauxite grades requires processing higher mud and sand loads and removing higher levels of impurities, resulting in lower production volumes and higher costs. While we have a focused effort and a clear understanding of the drivers for improvement, it will take some time to restore stable operating performance at full system capability.

此外，我們正在努力解決從我們的託管礦山交付的低品位鋁土礦的挑戰。鋁土礦品位的變化需要處理更高的泥漿和沙子負載並去除更高水平的雜質，從而導致產量降低和成本增加。雖然我們集中精力並清楚地了解改進的驅動因素，但要在完整的系統能力下恢復穩定的運行性能還需要一些時間。

Moving on to the next item. In July, we announced a return-seeking capital project to increase casting capabilities at our Deschambault smelter in Canada. That new ingot production line will meet needs for value-add products such as foundry alloys and is expected to be complete in the first quarter of 2023.

繼續下一個項目。 7 月，我們宣布了一項尋求回報的資本項目，以提高我們位於加拿大的 Deschambault 冶煉廠的鑄造能力。這條新的鑄錠生產線將滿足鑄造合金等增值產品的需求，預計將於 2023 年第一季度完工。

Looking towards the future, we have numerous initiatives that support our strategic priority to advance sustainably and our vision to reinvent the aluminum industry. We've now added all of our locations in Brazil to the rigorous certification process from the Aluminum Stewardship Initiative, which is the most comprehensive in the industry.

展望未來，我們有許多舉措來支持我們可持續發展的戰略重點和重塑鋁業的願景。我們現在已將我們在巴西的所有地點都添加到了鋁業管理倡議的嚴格認證流程中，這是業內最全面的。

Last month, we also introduced our new ExtruStrong alloy that is intended for the lightweight and high-strength applications that use billet. We also received recognition last month for an existing alloy that is gaining traction in one-piece casting known as mega or giga castings for the automotive market.

上個月，我們還推出了新的 ExtruStrong 合金，旨在用於使用鋼坯的輕質和高強度應用。上個月，我們還獲得了一種現有合金的認可，該合金在汽車市場上被稱為巨型或千兆鑄件的一體式鑄造中獲得了牽引力。

Most of the world's aluminum alloys were first developed by Alcoa, and we have decades of metallurgy and engineering leadership to help our customers solve challenges, including developing lightweighting solutions for electric vehicles.

世界上大多數鋁合金首先由美國鋁業公司開發，我們在冶金和工程領域擁有數十年的領先地位，可以幫助我們的客戶解決挑戰，包括為電動汽車開發輕量化解決方案。

In closing today, I want to quickly reiterate a few important items. Our balance sheet is solid, our proportional net debt is low, and we finished the quarter with $1.4 billion of cash on hand. This quarter, we also continued to provide capital returns to our stockholders in the form of a quarterly dividend and completed stock purchases.

在今天結束時，我想快速重申幾項重要事項。我們的資產負債表穩健，我們的淨債務比例很低，我們手頭有 14 億美元的現金結束本季度。本季度，我們還繼續以季度股息和完成股票購買的形式向股東提供資本回報。

As we move forward, our 3 segments remain well positioned on a cost basis, and we are addressing operational improvements across our system, including in our Australia refining system. We are working to deliver today as we prepare for tomorrow, including realizing our vision to reinvent the aluminum industry for a sustainable future. We have a robust technology road map of breakthrough R&D projects that have the potential to decarbonize the aluminum industry and differentiate Alcoa. We're proud of the existing innovation and problem solving that we bring every day to our customers, including the industry's most comprehensive portfolio of low-carbon products in our Sustana line.

隨著我們的前進，我們的 3 個部門在成本基礎上仍然處於有利地位，我們正在解決整個系統的運營改進問題，包括我們的澳大利亞煉油系統。在為明天做準備的同時，我們正在努力實現今天，包括實現我們重塑鋁業以實現可持續未來的願景。我們擁有突破性研發項目的強大技術路線圖，這些項目有可能使鋁行業脫碳並讓美鋁脫穎而出。我們為我們每天為客戶帶來的現有創新和解決問題感到自豪，包括我們的 Sustana 系列中業界最全面的低碳產品組合。

Now Bill and I look forward to taking your questions. Operator, who do we have on the line?

現在比爾和我期待著回答你的問題。接線員，我們有誰在線？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Carlos Alba with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Carlos Alba。

The first one would be maybe Roy or Bill or who can clarify a little bit more the situation in Norway, both in terms of the government trying to pass a proposal to change the carbon dioxide compensation. Is this something that requires approval by Congress? Or is it just the government decision to do this? When do you expect a decision to be announced? And is this -- what is behind this? Is this something that could be just temporary and potentially reverse later on? Or is it something that you envision that is here to stay?

第一個可能是羅伊或比爾，或者誰可以進一步澄清挪威的情況，就政府試圖通過一項改變二氧化碳補償的提案而言。這需要國會批准嗎？還是只是政府決定這樣做？您預計何時會宣布決定？這是——這背後是什麼？這可能只是暫時的，以後可能會逆轉嗎？或者它是你想像中的東西？

And then second, in terms of the share buybacks and returning money to shareholders, clearly, the company has been focusing on that as of late. But given the challenging conditions that the company and the industry are facing, how do you see the share buybacks going forward?

其次，在股票回購和向股東返還資金方面，很明顯，該公司最近一直在關注這一點。但鑑於公司和行業面臨的挑戰條件，您如何看待未來的股票回購？

Thanks, Carlos. It's Bill. And let me address -- I'll address both of those. The Norwegian government action that we referenced is that there is a draft Norwegian budget out there that eliminates indirect CO2 compensation for the first NOK 200 per ton of carbon. So up to that $200 -- I'm sorry, up to that NOK 200 level, they will no longer cover that indirect compensation. So during the course of this year, we had been accruing a benefit of $25 million, would accrue an additional benefit in the fourth quarter of $10 million. So in the fourth quarter, we'll have a negative impact of $35 million in our results if that were to come to pass.

謝謝，卡洛斯。是比爾。讓我來談談——我將解決這兩個問題。我們提到的挪威政府的行動是，有一份挪威預算草案，其中取消了對每噸碳 200 挪威克朗的間接二氧化碳補償。所以最高 200 美元——對不起，最高 200 挪威克朗的水平，他們將不再支付間接補償。因此，在今年的過程中，我們已經獲得了 2500 萬美元的收益，第四季度將獲得 1000 萬美元的額外收益。因此，在第四季度，如果這成為現實，我們將對我們的業績產生 3500 萬美元的負面影響。

We're in the process of tracking it, and we'll keep you posted on whether that happens or not. And I'm not going to speculate on whether that would go into future years. It appears that it probably would. As you know, that puts pressure on Mosjøen, but probably more so puts pressure on Lista. Lista is a high-cost facility with the energy situation where it's at, and it would be an incremental $12 million to $13 million of cost per year on Lista. So that puts a lot of pressure on Lista. So we'll keep you in the loop when we learn more about that.

我們正在跟踪它，我們會及時通知您是否會發生這種情況。而且我不會推測這是否會持續到未來幾年。看來它可能會。如你所知，這給 Mosjøen 帶來了壓力，但可能更多的是給 Lista 帶來了壓力。 Lista 是一個高成本設施，其能源狀況處於當前狀態，Lista 每年的成本將增加 1200 萬至 1300 萬美元。所以這給李斯塔帶來了很大的壓力。因此，當我們了解更多相關信息時，我們會讓您隨時了解情況。

Regarding share buybacks, as you saw, we did $150 million of share buybacks in the third quarter. I think we've done around $550 million year-to-date. At this point, there's a lot of uncertainty in our markets and a lot of geopolitical uncertainty in the world. So we'll continue to evaluate the capital distributions, and we will make our decisions based on cash flow and how strong the markets are. So that's where we stand.

關於股票回購，如您所見，我們在第三季度進行了 1.5 億美元的股票回購。我認為今年迄今為止我們已經完成了大約 5.5 億美元。在這一點上，我們的市場存在很多不確定性，世界上也存在很多地緣政治不確定性。因此，我們將繼續評估資本分配，我們將根據現金流和市場的強勁程度做出決定。這就是我們的立場。

The next question will come from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

下一個問題將來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。

So the sticky costs for power and carbon are intuitive in this environment. But obviously, costs for caustic soda and some of the alloying materials have also remained really elevated. And I wondered if you could comment on what is causing these costs to be so sticky. I would really appreciate your perspective on this.

因此，在這種環境下，電力和碳的粘性成本是顯而易見的。但顯然，苛性鈉和一些合金材料的成本也仍然很高。我想知道您是否可以評論導致這些成本如此粘滯的原因。我非常感謝您對此的看法。

Well, I think it varies, Lucas, by individual cost item. The carbon costs are largely related with oil prices. And as oil goes, typically, the carbon prices will go also. Caustic is much more complex given the fact that there are a number of different products that come out of the atom for caustic. So for us, in particular, as we look forward, we're anticipating that carbon costs, as we buy it, are starting to peak and actually go down in the fourth quarter, but caustic prices continue to be stubbornly high. .

嗯，盧卡斯，我認為它因個人成本項目而異。碳成本很大程度上與油價有關。通常，隨著石油價格的上漲，碳價格也會上漲。考慮到有許多不同的產品來自於苛性鹼的原子，因此苛性鹼要復雜得多。因此，特別是對我們而言，正如我們展望的那樣，我們預計碳成本在我們購買時將開始達到頂峰，並且實際上會在第四季度下降，但苛性鹼價格繼續居高不下。 .

Now when you look at that on a lagged basis as it flows through our cost of goods sold, we're anticipating around $25 million, $28 million of higher raw material costs in the fourth quarter. That's built into the guidance that we've provided. So that's not on top of the guidance that we've provided, but that's based on the fact that we continue to have lagged costs. But we start -- are starting to see carbon peak out and are projecting for it to go down in the future. Caustic will remain stubbornly high.

現在，當您從滯後的基礎上看它流經我們的銷售商品成本時，我們預計第四季度原材料成本將增加約 2500 萬美元，即 2800 萬美元。這已包含在我們提供的指導中。所以這不是我們提供的指導之上的，而是基於我們繼續滯後成本的事實。但我們開始 - 開始看到碳達到峰值，並預計它在未來會下降。苛性鹼將保持高位。

On the alloying materials, I think that's also in the aluminum segment, about 3% higher of your total cost year-on-year.

在合金材料方面，我認為鋁材也是如此，比去年的總成本高出約 3%。

Alloying materials have gone up over time, but they will vary just very much like you see LME prices vary. And so we've started to see some of the alloying costs come down. A good deal of that ends up getting passed through to our customers. And positively and negatively, it gets passed through one way or another to the customers.

合金材料隨著時間的推移而上漲，但它們的變化就像你看到的 LME 價格變化一樣。所以我們已經開始看到一些合金成本下降了。其中很大一部分最終會傳遞給我們的客戶。積極和消極地，它通過一種或另一種方式傳遞給客戶。

That's helpful. And then a quick second question on Lista. That's the power solution covered 2/3 of capacity that is currently operating, or would you consider returning to full nameplate? And then with this power solution, get the smelter to be EBITDA neutral from the loss in the third quarter?

這很有幫助。然後是關於 Lista 的第二個快速問題。那是覆蓋當前運行容量 2/3 的電源解決方案，還是您會考慮返回完整的銘牌？然後通過這種電力解決方案，讓冶煉廠在第三季度的虧損中保持 EBITDA 中性？

Yes. So let me fill that one, Lucas. So first and foremost, the contract that we have for energy for the fourth quarter and then the whole of 2023 covers the full consumption of the facility or the remainder of the consumption of the facility that was exposed to spot. So that gives us the flexibility to move back up to full production if and when we choose to do that. And of course, that ends up being a decision about what's happening with market factors, what we're seeing on an aluminum -- from an aluminum basis, for regional premiums as well as demand and then what the rest of the input costs are going to look like.

是的。所以讓我來填補那個，盧卡斯。因此，首先，我們在第四季度和整個 2023 年簽訂的能源合同涵蓋了該設施的全部消耗量或該設施暴露於現貨的剩餘消耗量。因此，如果我們選擇這樣做，我們可以靈活地恢復到全面生產。當然，這最終會決定市場因素的變化，我們在鋁上看到的情況——從鋁的基礎上看，區域溢價和需求，然後是其他投入成本的去向看起來像。

So that program, the decision to move forward to fix those costs was designed to continue to make Lista and EBITDA positive contributor to our bottom line. But I have to put a caveat in there in which we have to understand that with raw material prices as high as they are and aluminum prices also slipping, that calculation can be different. And we have the option to be able to move to a curtailment if we need to as part of the contract that we have.

因此，該計劃以及繼續解決這些成本的決定旨在繼續使 Lista 和 EBITDA 為我們的底線做出積極貢獻。但我必須在其中提出一個警告，我們必須明白，隨著原材料價格如此之高，鋁價也在下滑，這種計算可能會有所不同。如果我們需要作為我們現有合同的一部分，我們可以選擇進行縮減。

And as always, and I know we always get this question, but we look across our portfolio, particularly at those highest-cost plants, to determine what is the best outcome, what is the right thing to do for us to protect the plant, to think about the short, medium and long terms and then to act decisively when we make decisions.

和往常一樣，我知道我們總是會遇到這個問題，但我們會查看我們的產品組合，尤其是那些成本最高的工廠，以確定什麼是最好的結果，什麼是我們保護工廠的正確做法，考慮短期、中期和長期，然後在我們做出決定時果斷採取行動。

The next question will come from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究公司的 Timna Tanners。

Want to get your perspective on the Midwest premium declines. Just any thoughts there? And also on the LME, if the Russian material is not allowed, does it not just ship to China and China ships it out again? I mean -- or is there something I'm missing on the bigger impact?

想了解您對中西部保費下降的看法。有什麼想法嗎？還有在LME上，如果俄羅斯的材料不被允許，是不是直接運到中國，中國再運出去？我的意思是——或者我在更大的影響上遺漏了什麼？

So let me hit your first question. Midwest premium, so that's -- it's hard to give you a concise and decisive answer about what's going on. Of course, and you'll know this, part of it is -- because there's a duty paid and duty unpaid, now part of it is related to the underlying price of LME. And so let's take that for a given and set it to the side.

所以讓我回答你的第一個問題。中西部溢價，所以這就是 - 很難給你一個關於正在發生的事情的簡明而果斷的答案。當然，你會知道，其中一部分是 - 因為有已付稅款和未付稅款，現在部分與 LME 的基礎價格有關。所以讓我們把它當作一個給定的並將它放在一邊。

The other piece, of course, has to do with the dynamics around what is being imported or shipped into the United States, when that is, in fact, arriving and then what are the different customer demands and requirements that you see associated with that. And so it's -- and then sort of the third category to put it is that there's sentiment, too. There's also a forward-looking view about what people think as far as what the client demand will be for those specific products and for commodity grade material inside the United States.

當然，另一部分與進口或運往美國的動態有關，實際上是什麼時候到達，然後你看到與之相關的不同客戶需求和要求是什麼。所以它是 - 然後是第三類，也有情緒。就美國境內客戶對這些特定產品和商品級材料的需求而言，人們對這些產品的看法也具有前瞻性。

So all that comes together to have -- put into place a good amount of pressure on the Midwest premium. Of course, that will also depend what happens is -- what happens with further Russian metal coming into the United States and the decision that the U.S. government might take about applying sanctions. As we said in our prepared comments, we support sanctions and believe it just makes intuitive sense that no more Russian metal should be coming into the United States.

因此，所有這些加在一起 - 對中西部的溢價施加了很大的壓力。當然，這也將取決於發生的情況——更多俄羅斯金屬進入美國會發生什麼，以及美國政府可能採取的實施制裁的決定。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們支持制裁，並認為不應再有更多的俄羅斯金屬進入美國，這在直覺上是合理的。

And I think it also depends on relative premiums in the U.S. versus in Europe. So there is a direct connection -- Europe and elsewhere, of course, but most importantly Europe. There's a direct connection in that. As those 2 markets change, metal might be flowing from one place to the other with a lag. And so you can also see some lag effects happen as shipments might be coming in overseas.

而且我認為這還取決於美國與歐洲的相對溢價。所以有直接的聯繫——當然是歐洲和其他地方，但最重要的是歐洲。這裡面有直接的聯繫。隨著這兩個市場的變化，金屬可能會滯後地從一個地方流向另一個地方。因此，您還可以看到一些滯後效應，因為貨物可能運往海外。

Timna, can you repeat your second question? Because...

Timna，你能重複你的第二個問題嗎？因為...

It was on Russian metal and whether it can just simply go through China and then -- and it's in the warehouse.

它是在俄羅斯金屬上，它是否可以簡單地通過中國然後 - 它在倉庫裡。

Yes. So I mean that's -- it's certainly an important question. And I think the answer probably is, yes, there's lots of ways to get around what might be sanctions in one country versus a number of countries. There's ways to also get around whatever might happen as far as the LME's separate process to think about what they're going to do as far as the ability for Russian metal to be sent back into the warehouse.

是的。所以我的意思是——這當然是一個重要的問題。我認為答案可能是，是的，有很多方法可以解決一個國家對多個國家的製裁問題。就LME的單獨流程而言，還有一些方法可以繞過可能發生的任何事情，以考慮他們將要做什麼，以及將俄羅斯金屬送回倉庫的能力。

So there's always ways to try and move that around. It's why we sort of -- when we looked at the broader issue, we tried to simplify it into a position for Alcoa, in a position that we can lobby for with the U.S. and with Europe, for example, and believe that the simplest solution is simply to follow what we did really back at the beginning of the year, which was simply to say it doesn't make sense for us to be buying or selling to Russian entities.

所以總有辦法嘗試改變它。這就是為什麼我們有點——當我們考慮更廣泛的問題時，我們試圖將其簡化為美國鋁業的立場，例如，我們可以與美國和歐洲遊說，並相信最簡單的解決方案只是遵循我們在年初真正做的事情，這只是說我們向俄羅斯實體買賣是沒有意義的。

And so for us, it just makes sense that we moved to a sanction regime given what's happening in Ukraine right now and the knock-on impacts that, that's happening across the world. When we look at the fact how difficult it is right now, and we can see this in Lista and San Ciprián, how difficult it is to operate inside of Europe, we've also seen the same type of knock-on impact inside the United States. It doesn't make sense that Russia continues to produce and sell without any kind of sanctions regime on that.

所以對我們來說，考慮到烏克蘭目前正在發生的事情以及全世界正在發生的連鎖影響，我們轉向制裁制度是有道理的。當我們看到現在有多困難時，我們可以在利斯塔和圣西普里安看到這一點，在歐洲內部運作有多困難，我們也在曼聯內部看到了同樣類型的連鎖反應狀態。在沒有任何制裁制度的情況下，俄羅斯繼續生產和銷售是沒有意義的。

And so for us, that is the easiest solution to be able to try and bring a little bit of sensibility into this market and to try and build that sanctions regime in such a way that we're also ensuring that there's no cheating or games being played to try to bring Russian metal into a different entry point.

所以對我們來說，這是最簡單的解決方案，能夠嘗試為這個市場帶來一點敏感性，並嘗試建立制裁制度，確保我們也確保沒有作弊或遊戲存在試圖將俄羅斯金屬帶入不同的切入點。

And of course, the flows of metal around the world are -- it can change with time. And I think we've already seen that for alumina going into Russia and metal already coming out of Russia. But at the same time, unless you take that first and common sense step, you'll never start to have any kind of impact.

當然，世界各地的金屬流動是——它會隨著時間而改變。我認為我們已經看到氧化鋁進入俄羅斯，金屬已經從俄羅斯運出。但與此同時，除非你採取第一步和常識性的步驟，否則你永遠不會開始產生任何影響。

No, I appreciate that. And I know I snuck in 2. But if I could just have one more to follow up on your additional business consideration. I just want to make sure I understand this. It's -- the comment here about the $40 million higher than calculated using prorated annual metal sensitivity. So if you adjust the sensitivities that you give us, I'm coming up with like today's price, like $150 million delta Q1 over -- Q3 into Q4, and then you would add back $40 million because of different factors, because of the rapid changes in the commodity price. Is that the way that we should do the math?

不，我很感激。而且我知道我偷偷加入了 2。但如果我能再做一個來跟進您的額外業務考慮。我只是想確保我理解這一點。這是 - 這裡的評論是關於比使用按比例分配的年度金屬敏感度計算的高出 4000 萬美元。所以如果你調整你給我們的敏感度，我想出今天的價格，比如第一季度超過 1.5 億美元——第三季度到第四季度，然後你會因為不同的因素加回 4000 萬美元，因為快速商品價格的變化。這是我們應該做數學的方式嗎？

Yes, largely, Timna. So thanks for the question. And let me just take a moment to run through the additional business considerations because there's a lot there. So I think it's important to clarify it.

是的，主要是蒂姆納。所以謝謝你的問題。讓我花一點時間來介紹其他業務考慮因素，因為那裡有很多。所以我認為澄清這一點很重要。

Your summary is right. Use the annual sensitivities and then add back $40 million. There's really 2 reasons for that. One is we recorded about $20 million of net realizable value declines in the third quarter. And then we -- as we look forward, we just look at the sensitivities. And sometimes they don't -- annual sensitivities don't completely predict the quarter, and that's why we gave you the $40 million there.

你的總結是對的。使用年度敏感度，然後加回 4000 萬美元。確實有兩個原因。一是我們在第三季度錄得約 2000 萬美元的可變現淨值下降。然後我們——當我們向前看時，我們只關注敏感性。有時他們不會——年度敏感度並不能完全預測該季度，這就是我們在那裡給你 4000 萬美元的原因。

The other thing to consider in the aluminum space is that we think alumina will be a $30 million improvement over the -- in the fourth quarter. And the rest in the aluminum space is pretty flat. It comes out to offset the other -- these items. So higher raw material costs, lower work power plant sales, product premiums, that all nets out to about 0 once you factor in the benefit from Lista. So that's the Aluminum segment.

在鋁領域要考慮的另一件事是，我們認為氧化鋁將比第四季度增加 3000 萬美元。鋁製空間中的其餘部分非常平坦。它出來抵消其他 - 這些項目。因此，更高的原材料成本、更低的電廠銷售、產品溢價，一旦你考慮到 Lista 的好處，所有的淨值都約為 0。這就是鋁製部分。

Alumina, we expect to be about $20 million better. And bauxite, we expect to be $5 million better. So the guidance itself, once you baked in the current metal prices, current currencies, the performance guidance is actually pretty strong.

氧化鋁，我們預計會提高約 2000 萬美元。而鋁土礦，我們預計會高出 500 萬美元。所以指導本身，一旦你考慮到當前的金屬價格、當前的貨幣，業績指導實際上是相當強大的。

The next question will come from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將來自高盛的 Emily Chieng。

My first one is just around energy costs. And coming back to those business considerations, I wanted to focus on the Alumina segment. So it looks like there's about a $20 million improvement quarter-over-quarter on sort of improved energy prices for San Ciprián. Could you perhaps shed some light as to what those electricity prices or energy prices were during the second or third quarter? And what you're sort of calculating -- what you're baking in to come out with that $20 million improvement?

我的第一個是關於能源成本的。回到那些商業考慮，我想專注於氧化鋁部分。因此，由於圣西普里安的能源價格有所改善，環比增加了大約 2000 萬美元。您能否對第二季度或第三季度的電價或能源價格有所了解？你在計算什麼——你為了得到 2000 萬美元的改進而付出了什麼？

Emily, it gets dangerous for me to do stuff off the top of my head, but I think the gas price in the third quarter was something around $35 a gigajoule, and we're projecting that it improves in the fourth quarter based on what we know today. So that's the origin of that $20 million improvement.

艾米麗，對我來說，胡思亂想是很危險的，但我認為第三季度的汽油價格約為每千兆焦耳 35 美元，我們預計第四季度會有所改善今天就知道了。這就是 2000 萬美元改進的由來。

If I then kind of broaden out your question, there's a number of things that are going on in the Alumina segment. So you've got the benefit of lower energy costs in San Ciprián. But on top of that, because we've curtailed San Ciprián and we were losing money on every ton that we were shipping, you get a positive benefit also there from the curtailment. And that is what is offsetting some bauxite -- some lower bauxite quality issues in Australia and the higher raw material costs that I think I alluded to in the answer to Lucas' question around caustic costs. So in net, the Alumina segment should be $20 million better, with energy costs being better and then everything else nets out to flat to 0.

如果我再擴大您的問題範圍，那麼氧化鋁領域正在發生許多事情。因此，您可以在圣西普里安享受較低的能源成本。但最重要的是，因為我們已經削減了 San Ciprián，而且我們運輸的每一噸貨物都在虧損，所以你也可以從削減中獲得積極的收益。這就是抵消一些鋁土礦的原因——澳大利亞的一些鋁土礦質量較低的問題，以及我認為我在回答盧卡斯關於苛性鹼成本的問題時提到的較高的原材料成本。因此，在淨值上，氧化鋁部分應該會好 2000 萬美元，能源成本會更好，然後其他所有部分的淨值都為零。

Great. And my follow-up is just around capital allocation. I know you've touched on the capital returns piece. But maybe quickly, if you could touch on the balance sheet, the pensions and perhaps even early 2023 CapEx expectations. I know they were supposed to sequentially increase '23 versus '22, I think, was the guidance at the last Analyst Day, but any early look there would be helpful.

偉大的。我的後續行動只是圍繞資本配置。我知道你已經談到了資本回報這一塊。但也許很快，如果你能觸及資產負債表、養老金，甚至可能是 2023 年初的資本支出預期。我知道他們應該按順序增加 '23 和 '22，我認為這是上一個分析師日的指導，但任何早期的觀察都會有所幫助。

So we haven't updated the capital look since the last time -- we haven't updated externally since the last time we showed it at the Analyst Day. And my recollection is that sustaining capital for 2023 was going to be around $550 million. Return-seeking capital was going to be about $100 million. So up from the $450 million and $75 million from this year.

因此，自上次以來，我們還沒有更新資本外觀——自上次在分析師日展示它以來，我們還沒有在外部進行過更新。我記得 2023 年的維持資本約為 5.5 億美元。尋求回報的資本將約為 1 億美元。因此高於今年的 4.5 億美元和 7500 萬美元。

As far as capital allocation goes and the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with a cash balance of $1.4 billion. We have proportional net debt of, I believe, around $1.3 billion. The pension -- the pensions globally are in much, much better shape in the U.S., for instance, with the raising discount rate, they're over 100% funded. So we don't have significant cash contributions over the next few years for the pensions.

就資本配置和資產負債表而言，我們在本季度末的現金餘額為 14 億美元。我相信，我們的淨債務比例約為 13 億美元。養老金——全球養老金在美國的狀況要好得多，例如，隨著貼現率的提高，它們的資金已超過 100%。因此，我們在未來幾年不會為養老金提供大量現金。

We have the ongoing cash contribution associated with OPEB, but that's in the neighborhood of $50 million to $60 million. And then we don't have any material debt coming due until 2027. So over the next few years, the balance sheet is in great shape and will serve us well throughout the business cycles.

我們有與 OPEB 相關的持續現金捐款，但大約在 5000 萬美元到 6000 萬美元之間。然後我們在 2027 年之前不會有任何重大債務到期。因此，在接下來的幾年裡，資產負債表狀況良好，並將在整個商業周期中為我們提供良好的服務。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行證券公司的 Lawson Winder。

If I could just sort of push deeper on the capital allocation and the buyback and maybe understand how you think about that cash flow and what drives the buyback. So with the context that in Q3, your free cash flow was about $6 million after total CapEx, and then you bought back $150 million of shares, are you just kind of looking at working capital return as more of a driver as opposed to free cash flow?

如果我能更深入地推動資本配置和回購，或許可以了解您如何看待現金流以及推動回購的因素。因此，在第三季度，您的自由現金流在總資本支出後約為 600 萬美元，然後您回購了 1.5 億美元的股票，您是否只是將營運資本回報視為更多的驅動因素而不是自由現金流動？

Well, in the case of the third quarter, we entered the quarter with a very strong cash balance. And we've been pretty clear with our capital allocation framework that we will maintain a strong balance sheet. Today, we have an investment-grade balance sheet for the first time ever, and we will sustain the operations through the sustaining capital. And then after we've done that, we have 3 potential uses. The first -- and not necessarily in rank order, but the first is returning cash to shareholders. The second is positioning for growth in the future. And the third is repositioning the portfolio. And so specifically around the third quarter, Lawson, it was -- we had excess cash. We did not have uses that would create significant value. And therefore, we return the cash to shareholders.

好吧，就第三季度而言，我們進入該季度時現金餘額非常強勁。我們的資本分配框架非常清楚，我們將保持強勁的資產負債表。今天，我們有史以來第一次擁有投資級資產負債表，我們將通過維持資本維持運營。然後在我們完成之後，我們有 3 個潛在用途。第一個 - 不一定按順序排列，但第一個是向股東返還現金。二是對未來增長的定位。第三是重新定位投資組合。特別是在第三季度，勞森，我們有多餘的現金。我們沒有可以創造重大價值的用途。因此，我們將現金返還給股東。

Okay. And then if I could maybe ask about the Alumar smelter and then the restart there. So when you took the decision to restart that about a year ago, and there was a lot of reasons driving that, and I just wanted to follow up and see if the reasons driving the restart still held today. Some of the things you mentioned were like a strong local market, FX, which has now gone the other way. And I mean -- so does the restart of Alumar still make sense in the current aluminum price environment?

好的。然後如果我可以問一下 Alumar 冶煉廠，然後在那裡重新啟動。因此，當您在大約一年前決定重啟時，有很多原因推動了這一點，我只是想跟進，看看推動重啟的原因是否仍然存在。你提到的一些事情就像一個強大的本地市場，外匯，現在已經走了另一條路。我的意思是——那麼在當前的鋁價環境下，重啟 Alumar 是否仍然有意義？

Yes. Lawson, it's a good question. And of course, we always go back and look and try to understand the decisions that we make and try and learn from them. With Alumar, as you started to say, there's a bunch of decisions or a bunch of circumstances that led us to that decision. A strong local market, a -- the availability of a renewables-based and low-cost energy contract, which, in turn, helped us ensure that, that is in the bottom half of the cost curve. And so that means it's a very competitive plant.

是的。勞森，這是個好問題。當然，我們總是回過頭來尋找並嘗試了解我們做出的決定並嘗試從中學習。正如您開始所說，對於 Alumar，有一堆決定或一堆情況導致我們做出這個決定。一個強大的本地市場，一個基於可再生能源的低成本能源合同的可用性，這反過來又幫助我們確保了這一點，它位於成本曲線的下半部分。這意味著它是一個非常有競爭力的工廠。

It's a modern technology. And so -- and I actually worked at that facility, and it's a very -- it's a good technology, and we have a very good available workforce to be able to run it well. And you would be surprised how important that is in today's day and age. It's become more and more important.

這是一項現代技術。所以 - 我實際上在那個設施工作，這是一個非常 - 這是一個很好的技術，我們有一個非常好的可用勞動力能夠很好地運行它。你會驚訝於這在當今時代的重要性。它變得越來越重要。

And then there are some other more financial considerations, which are what do premiums look like in the area, how much can we actually be able to sell domestically versus having to export, how much can we turn into value-added product. And then we also had a series of tax...

然後還有一些其他更多的財務考慮，例如該地區的保費是什麼樣的，我們實際上可以在國內銷售多少而不是必須出口，我們可以將多少轉化為增值產品。然後我們也有一系列的稅收......

Tax credit.

稅收抵免。

VAT credits that in order to monetize, we have to have domestic sales. So all of those things, of course, the aluminum prices have changed. And so they're a little bit different than we made that decision. But all these other pieces actually support that as being a very smart decision.

增值稅抵免，為了貨幣化，我們必須有國內銷售。因此，所有這些事情，當然，鋁價都發生了變化。所以他們與我們做出的決定有點不同。但所有這些其他部分實際上都支持這是一個非常明智的決定。

It's difficult to bring up a plant that is coming up after a number of years being curtailed. But again, the advantage here is that we've got a workforce that knows how to do it. We've actually been able to upskill and upgrade and have a great number of people come back working for us. We're making good progress on seeing that smelter come back to life again.

在經過數年的削減後，很難培育出一種正在生長的植物。但同樣，這裡的優勢是我們有一支知道如何去做的勞動力。我們實際上已經能夠提陞技能和升級，並且有很多人回來為我們工作。我們在看到那個冶煉廠再次恢復生機方面取得了良好的進展。

It's complicated because of the availability of resources and getting the -- essentially the raw materials at the qualities that we want. But in the end, it's going to be a great plant. I truly believe it's going to be a great investment, and it's going to be a great investment because it's low on the cost curve.

由於資源的可用性和獲得 - 基本上是我們想要的質量的原材料，這很複雜。但最終，它將成為一個偉大的工廠。我真的相信這將是一項偉大的投資，而且這將是一項偉大的投資，因為它的成本曲線很低。

The next question will come from Chris LaFemina with Jefferies.

下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Chris LaFemina。

Bill, sorry to ask another question about balance sheet and capital returns, but just another way to think about it here. If you have $1.4 billion of cash, roughly, before you announced your first capital return, I think the criteria was to get to $1 billion to maintain a cash balance of at least $1 billion. So you're $1.4 billion now. In the third quarter, the capital returns came out of the balance sheet, right, because you were free cash flow breakeven. Should we assume that you are comfortable funding capital returns with the balance sheet as long as that cash balance is above $1 billion? Or do you need to have free cash flow to fund the capital returns?

比爾，很抱歉提出另一個關於資產負債表和資本回報的問題，但這只是在這裡思考的另一種方式。如果你有大約 14 億美元的現金，在你宣布你的第一次資本回報之前，我認為標準是達到 10 億美元，以保持至少 10 億美元的現金餘額。所以你現在有 14 億美元。在第三季度，資本回報從資產負債表中出來，對，因為你是自由現金流盈虧平衡點。我們是否應該假設只要現金餘額超過 10 億美元，您就可以放心地通過資產負債表為資本回報提供資金？或者您是否需要有自由現金流來為資本回報提供資金？

I think you had mentioned earlier that the decision about capital returns depends on cash flow. But in the third quarter, it looks like it was balance sheet, not cash flow that drove the capital returns. That's my first question.

我想你之前提到過，關於資本回報的決定取決於現金流。但在第三季度，推動資本回報的似乎是資產負債表，而不是現金流。這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. So good question, and I appreciate it. Unfortunately, there's not necessarily a binary answer between the 2. We want to maintain a strong balance sheet. We've historically said we're comfortable holding $1 billion of cash on the balance sheet. From time to time, we've been below $1 billion, and you didn't see us rush out to get cash sources. From time to time, we'll be above $1 billion, and that's where we are today. So it's a combination of how much cash we have. And as we look forward at the cash generation in the market, how much cash we see coming in, and we'll make the best decision based on those 2 factors. So not a single answer necessarily.

是的。這麼好的問題，我很感激。不幸的是，兩者之間不一定存在二元答案。我們希望保持強大的資產負債表。從歷史上看，我們一直說我們很樂意在資產負債表上持有 10 億美元的現金。有時，我們的資金低於 10 億美元，而您沒有看到我們急於獲得現金來源。有時，我們會超過 10 億美元，這就是我們今天所處的位置。所以這是我們有多少現金的組合。當我們展望市場上的現金產生時，我們看到有多少現金進來，我們將根據這兩個因素做出最佳決策。所以不一定只有一個答案。

And then just a quick one on the Russian sanctions and what that might mean for the market. Wouldn't it be the case that commodity trading companies would probably not want to hold metal that they cannot sell to the LME? In which case, the conduit for that metal to get from Russia to China and other regions just wouldn't be there. I would think that'll be severely disruptive to the market and probably lead to very tight conditions quickly because, again, trading companies want to have readily marketable inventory. And if you can't sell it to the LME, it's not readily marketable. Am I thinking about that correctly?

然後簡單介紹一下俄羅斯的製裁以及這對市場可能意味著什麼。難道商品貿易公司可能不想持有他們無法出售給 LME 的金屬嗎？在這種情況下，這種金屬從俄羅斯到中國和其他地區的管道就不會存在。我認為這將對市場造成嚴重破壞，並可能很快導致非常緊張的情況，因為貿易公司再次希望擁有易於銷售的庫存。如果你不能把它賣給 LME，它就不容易上市。我是否正確地考慮了這一點？

Yes. Chris, I think you are thinking about it correctly as much as we can try and predict what the effects could be. I think it's already clear. So let me put what's clear to me so far. We certainly decided that we didn't want to be -- we didn't want to either sell or buy from Russia. So that's sort of point number one. Point number two, we've seen many companies go in that same direction. And as the calendar year turns, what we're seeing are more and more people -- more and more customers of ours and, in general, people in the marketplace that are making that same decision. So the market is already starting to adapt to a world where that metal simply isn't available and isn't acceptable.

是的。克里斯，我認為您正在正確地考慮它，因為我們可以嘗試預測可能產生的影響。我想這已經很清楚了。所以讓我把到目前為止對我來說清楚的事情。我們當然決定我們不想成為——我們不想從俄羅斯出售或購買。所以這是第一點。第二點，我們已經看到許多公司都朝著同一個方向發展。隨著日曆年的到來，我們看到的是越來越多的人——我們越來越多的客戶，一般來說，市場上做出同樣決定的人。因此，市場已經開始適應這種金屬根本無法獲得且無法接受的世界。

And so if sanctions are imposed, I think what happens is you see that process accelerate and become much more black and white. And I think when you look at the different trading companies that are out there, I think you're exactly right, they're not going to want to hold on to metal that in the end won't either be deliverable to the LME or deliverable to most of the customers, and certainly, customers that are willing to pay full price or even at discounts.

因此，如果實施制裁，我認為你會看到這個過程加速並變得更加黑白分明。而且我認為，當您查看現有的不同貿易公司時，我認為您是完全正確的，他們不會想要持有最終無法交付給 LME 或可交付給大多數客戶，當然還有願意支付全價甚至折扣的客戶。

So all that says, and you look at some of these recent deliveries to the LME warehouses, and we don't have transparency into what was delivered and who delivered it and what metal it was. If I had one wish, I'd tell you I really would like to have a lot more transparency from the LME when it comes to what's being delivered because then we could actually know what is the source of this more than 200,000 tons that has come online over these last few days.

綜上所述，您查看最近向 LME 倉庫交付的一些貨物，我們無法了解交付的內容、交付者以及交付的金屬。如果我有一個願望，我會告訴你，我真的希望 LME 在交付貨物方面有更多的透明度，因為這樣我們就可以真正知道這超過 200,000 噸貨物的來源是什麼這幾天在線。

But it sort of goes to show you that there is the high likelihood that people holding that metal simply will not have a place for it to go if those sanctions are imposed. And with some of the discussions and some of the news reports that we've seen, there's certainly a lot of interest to see what the U.S. government and the European government, et cetera, are going to decide on that.

但它有點向你表明，如果實施這些制裁，持有這種金屬的人很可能根本沒有地方放它。通過我們看到的一些討論和一些新聞報導，肯定有很多人很想看看美國政府和歐洲政府等將對此做出什麼決定。

So all that to say, I think you're hitting on it correctly. Would there be a significant crunch? Again, the market is already starting to adapt to this. It's hard to predict how -- what's happening because of the knock-on impacts on demand and with so much supply changing around the world and the fact that you have 50% of your smelters in the world that are underwater at these prices, it tells you that there's a lot of catalysts for significant changes in the market. And having the Russian metal not be able to be delivered would be just one more of those pieces that could have fundamental impacts.

說了這麼多，我認為你說得對。會有嚴重的緊縮嗎？同樣，市場已經開始適應這一點。很難預測會發生什麼——由於對需求的連鎖反應以及世界各地的供應變化如此之大，以及世界上 50% 的冶煉廠以這些價格處於水下這一事實，它告訴您認為市場發生重大變化有很多催化劑。讓俄羅斯金屬無法交付將只是可能產生根本影響的其中之一。

Our final question will come from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Lucas Pipes 和 B. Riley Securities。

I just wanted to circle back on the bauxite quality issue. Do you have a sense of what the EBITDA impact was during the quarter? Sorry if I missed it. And then in terms of timing, how long it might take to work through this issue?

我只是想回到鋁土礦質量問題上。您是否了解本季度 EBITDA 的影響？對不起，如果我錯過了。然後在時間方面，解決這個問題可能需要多長時間？

So let me address the first part of the question, and Roy will address the second. In aggregate, the issues that we saw in Western Australia were about a $50 million drag on earnings in the third quarter. Don't chalk all that up to bauxite quality, though. There's a couple of components there. There was the issues around availability of equipment and maintenance problems that Roy referenced. That led to lower volumes out of Western Australia, which is about half of that $50 million, and we ended up spending more on maintenance and other things, and that was about another $25 million. So the net impact was $50 million, with the bauxite quality being a part of that $50 million.

所以讓我來談談問題的第一部分，羅伊將談談第二部分。總的來說，我們在西澳大利亞看到的問題對第三季度的收益造成了大約 5000 萬美元的拖累。不過，不要把這一切都歸咎於鋁土礦的質量。那裡有幾個組件。 Roy 提到了有關設備可用性和維護問題的問題。這導致西澳大利亞的銷量下降，大約是 5000 萬美元的一半，我們最終在維護和其他方面花費了更多，大約是 2500 萬美元。因此，淨影響為 5000 萬美元，鋁土礦質量是這 5000 萬美元的一部分。

And Lucas, to chime in on the second question or the second half of your question, I don't think we can give you a clear answer on when do we see that improve back to original condition because that depends on a number of different factors. Number one, we're in the midst of ensuring that we're optimizing the resource for the long term. Bauxite quality changes depending on where you're choosing to mine and how you are essentially using those pits and bring them together into inventory, et cetera. So there's a fundamental variance that comes in because of the resource itself and how we choose to make sure that, that resource will last us for the long term.

盧卡斯，就第二個問題或你問題的後半部分來說，我認為我們不能就何時看到改善回到原始狀態給你一個明確的答案，因為這取決於許多不同的因素.第一，我們正在確保我們長期優化資源。鋁土礦質量的變化取決於您選擇開采的地點以及您如何使用這些礦坑並將它們集中到庫存中，等等。因此，由於資源本身以及我們如何選擇確保該資源將長期存在於我們身上，存在一個根本性的差異。

On the other side of that is also our ability to operate well at the bauxite grades that we're experiencing. When you have lower bauxite grades, you tend to have more mud, you tend to have more sand. You need to be able to manage that. Both of those things are within our control, in our choices that we make. And so we're in the midst of looking how can we try and how can we make sure that we're mining in the right places at the right time and getting the grades to make them predictable. And on the other side, we're also doing a lot of work to make sure that we can handle those lower grades and be able to adapt to them so that we can operate more efficiently.

另一方面，我們也有能力在我們正在經歷的鋁土礦品位上運作良好。當您的鋁土礦品位較低時，您往往會有更多的泥漿，您往往會有更多的沙子。你需要能夠管理它。這兩件事都在我們的控制範圍內，在我們做出的選擇中。因此，我們正在研究如何嘗試，如何確保我們在正確的時間在正確的地點進行採礦，並獲得可預測的成績。另一方面，我們也在做很多工作，以確保我們能夠處理那些較低的成績並能夠適應它們，以便我們能夠更有效地運營。

We're putting a lot of effort into making sure that we can have more predictable results. I think we've tried to build into the additional considerations in the guidance we're giving, what we expect to happen from an Alumina segment standpoint. And we'll keep -- Lucas, we'll keep you and we'll keep the market updated as we roll those changes and as we see those improvements occur.

我們正在努力確保我們能夠獲得更可預測的結果。我認為我們已經嘗試在我們提供的指導中加入額外的考慮因素，從氧化鋁細分市場的角度來看，我們期望發生什麼。我們會保持——盧卡斯，我們會保持你，我們會保持市場更新，因為我們推出了這些變化，當我們看到這些改進發生時。

I believe we have the right people working on the right things. I'll tell you, it is an incredibly difficult time to operate anywhere. But at the same time, I also think we have just a great number of resources, both centrally and our centers of excellence, but also on site to be able to solve these problems and find ways for us to be able to better manage these issues.

我相信我們有合適的人在做正確的事情。我會告訴你，在任何地方進行操作都是非常困難的時期。但同時，我也認為我們有大量資源，包括中央和我們的卓越中心，還有現場能夠解決這些問題並找到方法讓我們能夠更好地管理這些問題.

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Roy Harvey for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議轉回給 Roy Harvey 先生做任何閉幕詞。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, once again, for listening to our call. We've appreciated the questions today. As we work to finish the year, we will remain focused on the items that are within our control so we can deliver today and prepare for the future. I look forward to talking to you again in January when we will discuss our full year and fourth quarter 2022 results. Until then, please be safe. Stay close to your family and friends. Good night.

再次感謝您收聽我們的電話。我們今天對這些問題表示讚賞。隨著我們努力結束這一年，我們將繼續專注於我們控制範圍內的項目，以便我們能夠在今天交付並為未來做好準備。我期待在 1 月份再次與您交談，屆時我們將討論我們的 2022 年全年和第四季度業績。在那之前，請注意安全。與您的家人和朋友保持密切聯繫。晚安。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。