美國鋁公司 (AA) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加美國鋁業公司 2021 年第四季度收益報告和電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to James Dwyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 James Dwyer。請繼續。

Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by Roy Harvey, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer; and William Oplinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Roy and Bill.

謝謝大家，大家好。今天，美國鋁業公司總裁兼首席執行官 Roy Harvey 加入了我的行列；和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 William Oplinger。我們將在 Roy 和 Bill 發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與受各種假設和警告約束的未來事件和預期有關的前瞻性陳述。可能導致公司實際結果與這些陳述產生重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示文稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.

此外，我們在本演示文稿中包含了一些非公認會計原則的財務指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬可以在今天的演示文稿的附錄中找到。我們今天討論中對 EBITDA 的任何提及均指調整後的 EBITDA。

Finally, as previously announced, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website.

最後，正如之前宣布的，收益發布和幻燈片演示可在我們的網站上找到。

With that, here's Roy.

有了這個，這裡是羅伊。

Thank you, Jim, and thanks to everyone for joining our call. 2021 was truly a transformative year for Alcoa. Due to the work and dedication of employees across the globe, we're now in our best financial shape ever. Our accomplishments, which span across our business, will help propel us forward with our vision to reinvent the aluminum industry for a sustainable future.

謝謝你，吉姆，也感謝大家加入我們的電話。 2021 年對美國鋁業來說確實是變革性的一年。由於全球員工的工作和奉獻精神，我們現在處於有史以來最好的財務狀況。我們在整個業務領域取得的成就將有助於推動我們實現重塑鋁業以實現可持續未來的願景。

Before Bill covers our results in detail, I want to quickly highlight a few items. First, our most important focus is always on safety, which is embedded in our Alcoa values: to act with integrity, operate with excellence, care for people and lead with courage. And every one of those values has an application that helps to support and improve our safety. Importantly, we will never put production or profit ahead of human life.

在比爾詳細介紹我們的結果之前，我想快速強調一些項目。首先，我們最重要的關注點始終是安全，這植根於我們的美鋁價值觀：誠信行事、卓越運營、關愛他人和勇於領導。這些價值觀中的每一個都有一個應用程序，有助於支持和提高我們的安全性。重要的是，我們絕不會將生產或利潤置於人類生活之上。

Last year, we had no fatalities, but we did experience some serious injuries. We recognize that our systems and processes must be consistently applied and regularly reviewed to prevent injuries. We never rest comfortably when it comes to safety. We must and will remain vigilant.

去年，我們沒有死亡，但我們確實經歷了一些重傷。我們認識到必須始終如一地應用和定期審查我們的系統和流程，以防止受傷。在安全方面，我們從不舒適地休息。我們必須並且將保持警惕。

Next, turning to some of our results. We had a quarterly net loss due to restructuring charges that Bill will detail. Meanwhile, our quarterly adjusted net income increased 21% from the prior quarter, setting a quarterly record for our company at $475 million. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, was $896 million.

接下來，轉向我們的一些結果。由於比爾將詳述的重組費用，我們有一個季度的淨虧損。與此同時，我們的季度調整後淨收入比上一季度增長了 21%，為我們公司創造了 4.75 億美元的季度記錄。不包括特殊項目的調整後 EBITDA 為 8.96 億美元。

In the fourth quarter, we also paid $19 million in cash dividends, our first as Alcoa Corporation. This action, too, made 2021 an important year as the initiation of our dividend program indicates the strength of our company and our view of future performance through the cycle.

在第四季度，我們還支付了 1900 萬美元的現金股息，這是我們作為美國鋁業公司的第一次。這一舉措也使 2021 年成為重要的一年，因為我們的股息計劃的啟動表明了我們公司的實力以及我們對整個週期未來表現的看法。

In the fourth quarter, we authorized an additional stock buyback program and repurchased 3.2 million shares. We generated nearly $1 billion from the sale of noncore assets in 2021, including $240 million from the Rockdale, Texas site in the fourth quarter. We've also continued to make good progress on the review of our operating portfolio. We've now addressed roughly 75% of the 1.5 million metric tons of global smelting capacity that we said we'd evaluate for significant improvement, curtailment, closure or divestiture.

第四季度，我們批准了額外的股票回購計劃並回購了 320 萬股。 2021 年，我們通過出售非核心資產產生了近 10 億美元，其中包括第四季度來自德克薩斯州羅克代爾的 2.4 億美元。我們還在審查我們的運營組合方面繼續取得良好進展。我們現在已經解決了全球 150 萬噸冶煉產能中的大約 75%，我們表示我們將評估這些產能是否有顯著改善、削減、關閉或剝離。

Importantly, we have significantly reduced our debt position during the year. Our adjusted proportional net debt was $1.1 billion on December 31, 2021, an improvement from $3.4 billion from year-end 2020. And on pensions, our remaining U.S. qualified pension plans are fully funded. We annuitized additional portions of our U.S. plans, derisking our balance sheet while ensuring that pensioners and beneficiaries receive their payments from highly rated insurance companies.

重要的是，我們在這一年顯著減少了我們的債務頭寸。到 2021 年 12 月 31 日，我們調整後的比例淨債務為 11 億美元，比 2020 年底的 34 億美元有所改善。在養老金方面，我們剩餘的美國合格養老金計劃資金充足。我們對美國計劃的其他部分進行了年金化，降低了資產負債表的風險，同時確保養老金領取者和受益人從高評級保險公司獲得付款。

We are now well positioned for the future, where aluminum will become an even more important material. Aluminum has always been a sustainable choice in metals, and we're ready to make it even more attractive to a greening world with technology advancements that will help us realize our vision, progress toward our net 0 ambition and create an even more sustainable aluminum company and industry. Finally, we're excited to see it all come together with many positive fundamentals in our markets. We expect the aluminum market to be stronger and for longer.

我們現在為未來做好了準備，鋁將成為一種更加重要的材料。鋁一直是金屬中的可持續選擇，我們已準備好通過技術進步使其對綠色世界更具吸引力，這將幫助我們實現我們的願景，朝著我們的淨 0 雄心邁進，並創建一家更具可持續性的鋁公司和工業。最後，我們很高興看到這一切與我們市場中的許多積極基本面結合在一起。我們預計鋁市場將更加強勁且持續時間更長。

Now let me ask Bill to go through our Q4 and full year results.

現在讓我請比爾回顧一下我們的第四季度和全年業績。

Thanks, Roy. Our fourth quarter income statement reflects both solid underlying earnings and a very busy set of strategic actions. We recorded a net loss attributable to Alcoa Corporation of $392 million. But excluding special items, we recorded quarterly adjusted net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation of $475 million, our highest since becoming a stand-alone company and an increase of $84 million from the prior quarter.

謝謝，羅伊。我們的第四季度損益表反映了穩健的基本收益和一系列非常繁忙的戰略行動。我們記錄了歸屬於美國鋁業公司的淨虧損 3.92 億美元。但不包括特殊項目，我們的季度調整後歸屬於美鋁公司的淨收入為 4.75 億美元，這是我們成為獨立公司以來的最高水平，比上一季度增加了 8400 萬美元。

Positive market fundamentals are reflected in our revenues and adjusted EBITDA excluding special items. At $3.3 billion, revenues were up $231 million or 7% sequentially on higher aluminum and alumina prices. Revenues were up $948 million or 40% from the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was up $168 million to $896 million sequentially and up $535 million or 148% compared to last year.

積極的市場基本面反映在我們的收入和不包括特殊項目的調整後 EBITDA 中。由於鋁和氧化鋁價格上漲，收入為 33 億美元，環比增長 2.31 億美元或 7%。收入比去年同期增長 9.48 億美元或 40%。調整後的 EBITDA 環比增長 1.68 億美元至 8.96 億美元，與去年相比增長 5.35 億美元或 148%。

On a full year basis, revenues were up 31% to $12.15 billion. Net income attributable to Alcoa changed from a net loss of $170 million to net income of $429 million. And adjusted EBITDA increased 140% from $1.15 billion to $2.76 billion.

全年收入增長 31% 至 121.5 億美元。歸屬於美鋁的淨收入從 1.7 億美元的淨虧損變為 4.29 億美元的淨收入。調整後的 EBITDA 從 11.5 億美元增長 140% 至 27.6 億美元。

To provide a little more detail about the quarter, the bottom of the page shows a bridge from fourth quarter GAAP net loss to adjusted net income. Special items netted to negative $867 million and included noncash charges for pension annuitization, the Wenatchee smelter closure, the San Ciprián smelter curtailment as well as the positive impacts of noncore asset sales, primarily the Rockdale site sale.

為了提供有關該季度的更多詳細信息，頁面底部顯示了從第四季度 GAAP 淨虧損到調整後淨收入的橋樑。特殊項目淨額為負 8.67 億美元，其中包括養老金年金化的非現金費用、Wenatchee 冶煉廠關閉、San Ciprián 冶煉廠縮減以及非核心資產出售（主要是 Rockdale 場地出售）的積極影響。

Now let's review adjusted EBITDA in more detail. Higher alumina and metal prices as well as increased aluminum shipments drove the $168 million increase in adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, while partial offsets came from higher energy and raw material prices. In other impacts, increased costs in San Ciprián, primarily energy related, were partially offset by onetime VAT credits recognized in Brazil.

現在讓我們更詳細地回顧調整後的 EBITDA。氧化鋁和金屬價格上漲以及鋁出貨量增加推動了不包括特殊項目的調整後 EBITDA 增加了 1.68 億美元，而部分抵消來自能源和原材料價格上漲。在其他影響方面，主要與能源相關的圣西普里安成本增加部分被巴西承認的一次性增值稅抵免所抵消。

Looking at the segments. Bauxite segment adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $49 million on lower production costs, favorable shipments and the annual true-up of mine lease royalties. Alumina segment EBITDA jumped 240% to $503 million on higher index pricing and lower production costs with partial offsets from the mix of customer shipments and higher caustic and energy costs. Lower production costs almost completely offset higher caustic costs.

看著細分。鋁土礦部門調整後的 EBITDA 增加了一倍多，達到 4900 萬美元，原因是生產成本降低、出貨量有利以及礦山租賃特許權使用費的年度調整。氧化鋁部門的 EBITDA 增長 240% 至 5.03 億美元，原因是更高的指數定價和更低的生產成本，部分抵消了客戶出貨量以及更高的苛性鹼和能源成本的影響。較低的生產成本幾乎完全抵消了較高的苛性鹼成本。

Aluminum was the most profitable segment again this quarter. Though still at a high level, EBITDA declined to $523 million as higher metal prices were more than offset by higher costs of alumina, energy, raw materials and production costs. Highlights included higher shipments in Québec and Fjardaál as well as increased product premiums and shipments shifting to regions with higher premiums. The sequential Aluminum segment impact of the San Ciprián situation was $62 million in other and was partially offset by Brazilian VAT credits. Below the segment line, higher alumina prices caused increased intersegment eliminations, creating a negative $120 million impact.

鋁再次成為本季度最賺錢的部分。儘管仍處於較高水平，但 EBITDA 下降至 5.23 億美元，因為較高的金屬價格被氧化鋁、能源、原材料和生產成本的上漲所抵消。亮點包括魁北克和 Fjardaál 的出貨量增加，產品溢價增加，出貨量轉移到溢價更高的地區。圣西普里安局勢對鋁業的連續影響為 6200 萬美元，部分被巴西增值稅抵免額抵消。在分部線以下，較高的氧化鋁價格導致分部間淘汰增加，造成 1.2 億美元的負面影響。

Now let's look at impacts in our cash flows. The left side of the slide shows the drivers of the sequential increase in cash on the balance sheet, which increased from $1.46 billion to $1.92 billion, including the $110 million of restricted cash primarily related to the San Ciprián curtailment. The roughly $0.5 billion cash increase came from strong EBITDA as well as noncore asset sales, partially offset by capital returns to stockholders, capital expenditures and increased working capital.

現在讓我們看看對我們現金流的影響。幻燈片左側顯示了資產負債表上現金連續增加的驅動因素，從 14.6 億美元增加到 19.2 億美元，其中包括主要與圣西普里安削減有關的 1.1 億美元的受限現金。大約 5 億美元的現金增長來自強勁的 EBITDA 以及非核心資產銷售，部分被股東的資本回報、資本支出和增加的營運資本所抵消。

On the right side of the slide, on a full year basis, sources of cash were $4.2 billion and uses, $3.9 billion. The largest cash source was adjusted EBITDA excluding special items of $2.8 billion, while noncore asset sales generated $966 million. The combination of debt offering proceeds and debt redemptions was a net reduction of $801 million. Other major cash uses were increased working capital of $699 million, $611 million for pension and OPEB funding, which includes a $500 million discretionary pension contribution in the second quarter, capital expenditures of $390 million and capital returns to our stockholders of $169 million.

在幻燈片右側，全年現金來源為 42 億美元，用途為 39 億美元。最大的現金來源是調整後的 EBITDA，不包括 28 億美元的特殊項目，而非核心資產銷售產生了 9.66 億美元。發債所得和債務贖回合計淨減少 8.01 億美元。其他主要現金用途包括增加營運資金 6.99 億美元、用於養老金和 OPEB 資金的 6.11 億美元，其中包括第二季度 5 億美元的可自由支配養老金繳款、3.9 億美元的資本支出和 1.69 億美元的股東資本回報。

Looking at other key metrics. Return on equity increased to 33.4% for fiscal 2021. Full year 2021 free cash flow less net noncontrolling interest distributions was $336 million and includes the second quarter's $500 million pension funding. Free cash flow less NCI was positive $387 million in the fourth quarter.

查看其他關鍵指標。 2021 財年的股本回報率增至 33.4%。2021 年全年自由現金流減去淨非控制性利息分配為 3.36 億美元，其中包括第二季度的 5 億美元養老金資金。第四季度的自由現金流減去 NCI 為正 3.87 億美元。

Days working capital was flat sequentially at 29 days. We did have approximately 3 days unfavorable impact from San Ciprián inventory build, but this was offset by other reduction in days of inventory on hand and favorable receivables collections. On a year-over-year basis, days working capital is up 9 days as higher sales disproportionately decreased days payable.

營運資金天數環比持平，為 29 天。 San Ciprián 庫存增加確實對我們產生了大約 3 天的不利影響，但這被其他庫存天數的減少和有利的應收賬款收款所抵消。與去年同期相比，由於較高的銷售額不成比例地減少了應付天數，因此營運資金天數增加了 9 天。

Both 2021 and 2020 year-end working capital amounts include the impact of the workers' strikes at San Ciprián, which blocked over 50,000 metric tons of metal shipments and represents approximately 3 days working capital. We expect to work through the San Ciprián inventory build over the next 8 months.

2021 年和 2020 年年底的營運資金金額都包括圣西普里安工人罷工的影響，罷工阻礙了超過 50,000 公噸的金屬運輸，相當於大約 3 天的營運資金。我們預計將在未來 8 個月內完成 San Ciprián 庫存建設。

With unrestricted cash at $1.8 billion, our key leverage metric, proportional adjusted net debt is $1.1 billion and net debt is now net cash of $12 million.

無限制現金為 18 億美元，我們的關鍵槓桿指標，按比例調整後的淨債務為 11 億美元，淨債務現在為 1200 萬美元的淨現金。

As a final comment on the quarter, here's a deeper dive on key pension actions we took in November and December. In November and December, Alcoa transferred 2 groups of the U.S. pension liabilities totaling $1.5 billion to Athene Annuity and Life Company. Pricing was very competitive. We used a portion of our prefunding balance to meet contribution requirements, so no cash contribution was required. Alcoa booked a noncash charge of $848 million to recognize deferred losses that would have been realized over the term of those transferred obligations.

作為對本季度的最後評論，這裡對我們在 11 月和 12 月採取的關鍵養老金行動進行了更深入的探討。 11 月和 12 月，美國鋁業公司將 2 組總計 15 億美元的美國養老金負債轉讓給 Athene Annuity and Life Company。定價非常有競爭力。我們使用了部分預籌資金餘額來滿足供款要求，因此不需要現金供款。美國鋁業公司記入了 8.48 億美元的非現金費用，以確認本應在這些轉讓義務期限內實現的遞延損失。

Our U.S. pension liabilities have changed substantially in the last year. In 2021, the gross U.S. pension liability decreased from $4.5 billion to $2.6 billion. And the number of annuitants decreased from 29,000 to 14,000, lowering Alcoa's pension-related risk. The U.S. qualified pensions are now fully funded.

我們的美國養老金負債在去年發生了重大變化。 2021 年，美國養老金負債總額從 45 億美元降至 26 億美元。年金人數從 29,000 人減少到 14,000 人，降低了美鋁的養老金相關風險。美國合格的養老金現在已經得到了充分的資助。

That's enough looking in the rearview mirror. Now let's look forward to 2022. Our 2022 outlook includes modest year-over-year increases expected in bauxite and alumina shipments. In aluminum shipments, the slight decrease projected reflects the impact of the 2021 Warrick rolling mill sale and the net impact of the 2022 restarts at Alumar and Portland as well as the curtailment at San Ciprián. In EBITDA impacts outside the segments, transformation spending is expected to be approximately $75 million on increased project spending, and other corporate expense is expected to decline to $140 million.

看看後視鏡就夠了。現在讓我們展望 2022 年。我們對 2022 年的展望包括預計鋁土礦和氧化鋁出貨量將同比溫和增長。在鋁出貨量方面，預計略有下降反映了 2021 年 Warrick 軋機銷售的影響以及 2022 年 Alumar 和 Portland 重啟以及 San Ciprián 削減的淨影響。在細分市場以外的 EBITDA 影響中，由於項目支出增加，轉型支出預計約為 7500 萬美元，其他公司支出預計將下降至 1.4 億美元。

Below the EBITDA line, depreciation and interest expense are both expected to decline, and nonoperating pension and OPEB expense will increase due to the impact of the 2021 annuitizations. The net impact of the 3 line items is favorable $37 million.

在 EBITDA 線以下，預計折舊和利息費用都將下降，由於 2021 年年金的影響，非經營性養老金和 OPEB 費用將增加。這三個項目的淨影響是有利的 3700 萬美元。

Looking at cash flows. Required pension and OPEB funding is expected to decline $62 million to approximately $75 million. Return-seeking capital expenditures are expected to increase to approximately $75 million. Sustaining capital is expected to increase to approximately $450 million of spending for the Juruti mine move as well as impoundments and residue filtration spending, primarily in Brazil.

看現金流。所需的養老金和 OPEB 資金預計將減少 6200 萬美元至約 7500 萬美元。尋求回報的資本支出預計將增加到約 7500 萬美元。預計維持資本將增加到約 4.5 億美元，用於 Juruti 礦山搬遷以及蓄水和殘渣過濾支出，主要在巴西。

A significant change from 2021 is expected in the payment of approximately $325 million of prior year income taxes, a result of higher 2021 taxable earnings in Canada and Australia. Finally, environmental and ARO spending is expected to increase $42 million to approximately $160 million as spending occurs to remediate closed locations.

由於加拿大和澳大利亞 2021 年的應稅收入增加，預計上一年所得稅的支付額與 2021 年相比將發生重大變化。最後，環境和 ARO 支出預計將增加 4200 萬美元至約 1.6 億美元，因為支出用於修復封閉地點。

For the first quarter of 2022, as outlined in the appendix, at current price levels, we expect adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income to be similar to the fourth quarter of 2021. Expected metal index price benefits will roughly offset the raw materials and energy challenges, and improvement from portfolio actions and sales contract pricing are expected to mitigate other seasonal changes and headwinds.

如附錄中所述，對於 2022 年第一季度，在當前價格水平下，我們預計調整後 EBITDA 和調整後淨收入將與 2021 年第四季度相似。預期金屬指數價格收益將大致抵消原材料和能源挑戰，以及投資組合行動和銷售合同定價的改善預計將緩解其他季節性變化和不利因素。

Now let me turn it back to Roy.

現在讓我把它轉回給羅伊。

As Bill noted, the Aluminum segment has a significant role in our overall profitability. In 2021, the average LME aluminum price surged to its highest level in more than a decade, and pricing today is higher than the average levels we experienced in 2021.

正如比爾指出的那樣，鋁部門在我們的整體盈利能力中發揮著重要作用。 2021 年，LME 鋁的平均價格飆升至十多年來的最高水平，今天的價格高於我們在 2021 年經歷的平均水平。

On the supply side, important fundamentals have taken shape in China, which is the world's largest producer of aluminum. In 2021, the country curtailed more than 2 million tonnes of annualized capacity due to both power shortages and the enforcement of policies related to energy and the environment. These supply dynamics are not only occurring in China. Increases in market power prices in Europe have led to a series of smelter cuts there that I will discuss in more detail on the next slide.

在供給方面，作為全球最大的鋁生產國，中國已經形成了重要的基本面。 2021 年，由於電力短缺以及能源和環境相關政策的執行，該國每年削減了超過 200 萬噸的產能。這些供應動態不僅發生在中國。歐洲市場電價的上漲導致那裡的冶煉廠進行了一系列削減，我將在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地討論。

On the demand side, we expect annual global demand for primary aluminum to increase this year between 2% and 3% relative to 2021. Demand in 2021 had already eclipsed the prepandemic levels of 2019. We continue to see positive GDP and industrial production across most of the world's leading economies, which supports continued annualized growth in aluminum demand across all major end-use sectors. Aluminum prices have been supported by supply constraints, low inventory levels and high transportation costs.

在需求方面，我們預計今年全球對原鋁的年需求將相對於 2021 年增長 2% 至 3%。2021 年的需求已經超過了 2019 年疫情前的水平。我們繼續看到大多數國家的 GDP 和工業生產為正全球主要經濟體，這支持所有主要最終用途部門的鋁需求持續年化增長。鋁價受到供應限制、低庫存水平和高運輸成本的支撐。

From a commercial perspective, the shortages of some specific alloying materials key to our value-added products have also eased somewhat from the tightest points in the fourth quarter. On sales, much of our volume for value-add aluminum products is sold in annual contracts, and negotiations with customers resulted in favorable pricing. We expect higher premiums relative to 2021 and continued demand for any remaining open volume.

從商業角度看，對我們的增值產品至關重要的一些特定合金材料的短缺也從第四季度的最緊張點有所緩解。在銷售方面，我們的大部分增值鋁產品都是以年度合同形式銷售的，與客戶的談判取得了有利的價格。我們預計相對於 2021 年的溢價將更高，並且對任何剩餘未平倉量的持續需求。

We continue to benefit from our position as a domestic supplier to the deficit markets in North America and Europe, where regional premiums remain high. On overall market dynamics, the factors supporting higher aluminum prices represent fundamental structural changes that we believe will remain in place over the next decade, supported by a drive towards more sustainable solutions.

我們繼續受益於我們作為北美和歐洲赤字市場的國內供應商的地位，這些市場的區域溢價仍然很高。就整體市場動態而言，支持鋁價上漲的因素代表了根本性的結構性變化，我們認為這些變化將在未來十年內繼續存在，並受到對更可持續解決方案的推動。

The global push to reduce carbon emissions is a boom for aluminum demand at a time when supply constraints are becoming more prevalent, particularly in China. With policy goals that target reductions in total carbon emissions and a focus on energy efficiency, China has made a commitment to cap their primary aluminum smelting capacity at 45 million metric tons of annualized capacity, which leaves little room for any net production growth. We expect China will remain a net importer of primary aluminum.

在供應限制日益普遍的情況下，特別是在中國，全球減少碳排放的努力是鋁需求的繁榮。中國的政策目標是減少碳排放總量並註重能源效率，中國已承諾將其原鋁冶煉產能限制在 4500 萬噸/年，這幾乎沒有留下任何淨產量增長的空間。我們預計中國仍將是原鋁的淨進口國。

In the alumina market, pricing remains higher relative to 2021's average, but supply constraints in primary aluminum production have reduced demand. Also, some of the disruptions in supply at ex-China refineries in 2021 have either recovered or are in the process of being resolved. Our position in the aluminum market remains strong and advantaged. We are the world's largest producer of third-party smelter-grade alumina outside of China, and our refining system uses less caustic soda per tonne of alumina produced, and it is optimized for an integrated bauxite supply.

在氧化鋁市場，價格相對於 2021 年的平均水平仍然較高，但原鋁生產的供應限制減少了需求。此外，2021 年中國以外煉油廠的一些供應中斷已經恢復或正在解決中。我們在鋁市場的地位依然穩固且具有優勢。我們是中國以外世界上最大的第三方冶煉級氧化鋁生產商，我們的精煉系統每生產一噸氧化鋁使用較少的燒鹼，並針對鋁土礦的綜合供應進行了優化。

We are also proud to have a global refining system with the industry's lowest carbon intensity, and we're the only refiner to sell EcoSource, a low-carbon alumina brand that allows an aluminum smelter to reduce its carbon emissions simply by switching to this product. In our view, our refining system and our unique product offering provides a sustainable advantage in a rapidly evolving world.

我們還為擁有業內碳強度最低的全球煉油系統而感到自豪，並且我們是唯一一家銷售 EcoSource 的煉油商，這是一個低碳氧化鋁品牌，使鋁冶煉廠只需改用該產品即可減少碳排放.我們認為，我們的煉油系統和獨特的產品供應在快速發展的世界中提供了可持續的優勢。

Next, I'd like to take a deeper look at the aluminum market. The average view from analysts is that 2021 ended with close to a 1 million metric ton global deficit, and another deficit of approximately 1.4 million metric tons is expected in 2022. All of this is happening at a time when inventories are at their lowest level in a decade.

接下來，我想深入了解一下鋁市場。分析師的平均觀點是，2021 年全球短缺接近 100 萬噸，預計 2022 年還會出現約 140 萬噸的短缺。所有這一切都發生在庫存處於 2019 年最低水平的時候。十年。

Looking at inventory levels from a days of consumption perspective. Inventories returned to a low point of 52 days of consumption at the end of 2021. If the deficit projection for 2022 holds, we expect inventories could sink to a new low of 44 days of consumption by the end of 2022. Despite deficit market conditions and inventories at low levels, we are continuing to see supply constraints due to challenges related to power and the emphasis on sustainable production.

從消費天數的角度來看庫存水平。庫存在 2021 年底回到了 52 天消費的低點。如果對 2022 年的赤字預測成立，我們預計到 2022 年底庫存可能會降至 44 天的消費新低。儘管市場狀況和供應短缺庫存處於低水平，由於與電力相關的挑戰和對可持續生產的重視，我們繼續看到供應限制。

An interesting case study lies in the latest market dynamics in Europe. In this important aluminum market, average spot power rates increased between 200% and 400% between January and December of 2021, driving cuts in smelting capacity across Europe. This chart shows in dark blue the countries where smelting capacity has been reduced due to power issues. We estimate these cuts have impacted between 600,000 and 700,000 tonnes of annualized capacity, which represents around 15% of Europe's operating capacity.

一個有趣的案例研究在於歐洲的最新市場動態。在這個重要的鋁市場，2021 年 1 月至 12 月期間，平均現貨電價上漲了 200% 至 400%，推動了整個歐洲的冶煉產能削減。這張圖表以深藍色顯示了由於電力問題導致冶煉能力下降的國家。我們估計這些削減影響了 600,000 至 700,000 噸的年產能，約佔歐洲運營產能的 15%。

This demonstrates the pressure that aluminum smelters will increasingly face during the transition from fossil fuels to more renewables. And as I mentioned earlier, the structural changes driven by decarbonization should give low-carbon operators like Alcoa a sustained competitive advantage in the future. However, we weren't without our own challenges as it relates to power prices in Spain, and I'd like to next recap the news we issued at the end of 2021 related to the San Ciprián smelter.

這表明鋁冶煉廠在從化石燃料向更多可再生能源過渡期間將面臨越來越大的壓力。正如我之前提到的，由脫碳驅動的結構變化應該會給像美國鋁業這樣的低碳運營商在未來帶來持續的競爭優勢。然而，在西班牙的電價方面，我們並非沒有自己的挑戰，接下來我想回顧一下我們在 2021 年底發布的與 San Ciprián 冶煉廠有關的消息。

As we've discussed previously on these earnings calls, we've been working to find a solution to the unfavorable energy prices for our San Ciprián smelter. Even with the positive shifts we've seen in aluminum pricing, the smelter has continued to lose money primarily because of the exorbitant energy prices in Spain. The price of electricity there hit an all-time high late last year, averaging approximately EUR 240 per megawatt hour in the month of December.

正如我們之前在這些財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們一直在努力為我們的 San Ciprián 冶煉廠的不利能源價格尋找解決方案。即使我們在鋁價方面看到了積極的變化，冶煉廠仍繼續虧損，主要是因為西班牙的能源價格過高。去年年底，那裡的電價創下歷史新高，12 月份平均約為每兆瓦時 240 歐元。

On December 29, 2021, we signed an agreement with the workers' representatives at San Ciprián to temporarily curtail the smelter for 2 years to control our losses. We will use that time to find an energy solution via long-term power purchase agreements. We've committed to restart the smelter in January of 2024.

2021 年 12 月 29 日，我們與 San Ciprián 的工人代表簽署了一項協議，臨時削減冶煉廠 2 年以控制我們的損失。我們將利用這段時間通過長期購電協議尋找能源解決方案。我們已承諾在 2024 年 1 月重啟冶煉廠。

We started the curtailment process earlier this month and expect all molten metal production from the smelter will cease by the end of this month. With the agreement, we expect annual net losses between $20 million to $25 million both this year and in 2023. While this situation is not ideal, it was important for everyone to have clarity on the losses, and importantly, to have a clear time line to resolve the issues and define a date to restart with new power arrangements.

我們本月早些時候開始了減產過程，預計冶煉廠的所有熔融金屬生產將在本月底停止。根據該協議，我們預計今年和 2023 年的年度淨虧損將在 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元之間。雖然這種情況並不理想，但每個人都必須清楚地了解損失，更重要的是，要有明確的時間表解決問題並確定重啟新電力安排的日期。

We will continue to operate the cast house during the smelter's curtailment using accumulated inventory that could not be shipped during the strike action. The agreement with the workers' representatives ended the strike, which also had negative effects on our refinery. There is certainly much to be done during this 2-year period, but we look forward to working towards a more successful San Ciprián smelter.

在冶煉廠減產期間，我們將繼續使用在罷工行動期間無法發貨的累積庫存來運營鑄造廠。與工人代表達成的協議結束了罷工，這也對我們的煉油廠產生了負面影響。在這 2 年期間肯定有很多工作要做，但我們期待著努力建設一個更成功的 San Ciprián 冶煉廠。

Next, as I mentioned at the beginning of our call, our achievements across 2021 truly showcase our efforts toward becoming a more streamlined, efficient and high-performing commodity-focused company. For the past 5 years, we have worked on improving our foundation financially, operationally and strategically. Now we are ready for the future. We are embracing opportunities to reinvent how we operate, innovating for long-term impact and challenging the status quo. These accomplishments reflect our company's overarching purpose to turn raw potential into real progress. This purpose, combined with our Alcoa values, serves as our foundation. It helps guide every goal we set, decision we make, action we take and the strategy we implement.

接下來，正如我在電話會議開始時提到的，我們在 2021 年取得的成就真正展示了我們為成為一家更加精簡、高效和高性能的以商品為中心的公司所做的努力。在過去的 5 年中，我們一直致力於在財務、運營和戰略上改善我們的基礎。現在我們已經為未來做好了準備。我們正在把握機遇，重塑我們的運營方式，為長期影響而創新，並挑戰現狀。這些成就反映了我們公司將原始潛力轉化為實際進步的總體目標。這一目標與我們的美鋁價值觀相結合，是我們的基礎。它有助於指導我們設定的每一個目標、我們做出的決定、我們採取的行動以及我們實施的戰略。

I'd like to highlight only a few of the many accomplishments listed on this slide. From a commercial standpoint, we have the industry's most comprehensive suite of low-carbon products in our Sustana family. Last year, we sold our first commercial shipments of EcoSource alumina, the industry's only low-carbon smelter-grade alumina. Also, we sold our low-carbon ECOLUM aluminum for the wheels on the Audi e-Tron GT electric sports car. The wheels used both ECOLUM aluminum and metal from our ELYSIS joint venture, a revolutionary technology that eliminates all direct greenhouse gas emissions from the smelting process.

我只想強調這張幻燈片上列出的眾多成就中的一小部分。從商業角度來看，我們在 Sustana 家族中擁有業內最全面的低碳產品套件。去年，我們售出了第一批商業化的 EcoSource 氧化鋁，這是業內唯一的低碳冶煉級氧化鋁。此外，我們還出售了用於奧迪 e-Tron GT 電動跑車車輪的低碳 ECOLUM 鋁材。車輪使用我們 ELYSIS 合資企業的 ECOLUM 鋁和金屬，這是一項革命性技術，可消除冶煉過程中的所有直接溫室氣體排放。

In our operations, we continue to make important advancements, and I'd like to recognize just a few. In Australia, our Huntly bauxite mine had a very strong year and nearly matched its 2019 record for dry metric tons. In alumina, our Kwinana refinery in Australia had its best-ever annual production in 2021. In Norway, we had record molten production at Mosjøen and record billet production at Lista. In Canada, all 3 of the operations in Québec are now certified to the Aluminum Stewardship Initiative and set annual molten production records. Finally, in Brazil, the Alumar refinery recovered from the bauxite ship unloader damage and set a quarterly production record in the fourth quarter.

在我們的運營中，我們繼續取得重要的進步，我只想承認一些。在澳大利亞，我們的 Huntly 鋁土礦今年表現非常強勁，幾乎達到了 2019 年的干噸記錄。在氧化鋁方面，我們在澳大利亞的 Kwinana 精煉廠在 2021 年實現了有史以來最好的年產量。在挪威，我們在 Mosjøen 的熔融產量和在 Lista 的方坯產量都創歷史新高。在加拿大，魁北克的所有 3 家工廠現在都通過了鋁管理倡議的認證，並創造了年度熔融生產記錄。最後，在巴西，Alumar 煉油廠從鋁土礦卸船機損壞中恢復過來，並在第四季度創下季度產量記錄。

On our portfolio, we've made very good progress in addressing our production capacities to create a set of cost-competitive and sustainable operating assets. Our vision to reinvent the aluminum industry for a sustainable future really helps to define our next challenge, to innovate and create low-carbon solutions that our world needs and to solve some of our industry's most pressing challenges. That's included here in our future-oriented research and development projects, which have the potential to not only transform the industry but drive important value for our investors in a carbon-constrained world. We are addressing these challenges with cost competitiveness in mind. We need to solve for low carbon but also for low cost and low capital.

在我們的投資組合中，我們在提高生產能力方面取得了非常好的進展，以創造一系列具有成本競爭力和可持續的運營資產。我們重塑鋁工業以實現可持續未來的願景確實有助於定義我們的下一個挑戰，創新和創造我們的世界需要的低碳解決方案，並解決我們行業中一些最緊迫的挑戰。這包括在我們面向未來的研發項目中，這些項目不僅有可能改變行業，而且在碳受限的世界中為我們的投資者帶來重要價值。我們在考慮成本競爭力的同時應對這些挑戰。我們需要解決低碳問題，也需要解決低成本和低資本問題。

And finally on this slide, we had numerous financial accomplishments in the year, which provide a much stronger foundation for Alcoa's future. But to be successful, we must build on the positive momentum. So next, I'll discuss a few of the items on our list for this new year.

最後在這張幻燈片上，我們在這一年取得了許多財務成就，這為美國鋁業的未來奠定了更堅實的基礎。但要取得成功，我們必須在積極勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。所以接下來，我將討論我們今年清單上的一些項目。

In 2022, we will focus on safely completing the full smelter restart at Alumar in Brazil and the restart of some modest additional capacity at the Portland smelter in Australia. As I mentioned, we are also actively working on the energy situation at San Ciprián. In Brazil, we will be implementing some important capital projects, which include the mine move for Juruti's bauxite crusher. For Poços de Caldas, we are working on the installation of press filtration for bauxite residue, bringing technology to Brazil that we first adopted at 2 Western Australian refineries.

2022 年，我們將專注於安全完成巴西 Alumar 冶煉廠的全面重啟以及澳大利亞波特蘭冶煉廠的一些適度額外產能的重啟。正如我所提到的，我們也在積極處理圣西普里安的能源狀況。在巴西，我們將實施一些重要的資本項目，其中包括 Juruti 鋁土礦破碎機的礦山搬遷。對於 Poços de Caldas，我們正在努力為鋁土礦渣安裝壓濾，將我們首先在 2 家西澳大利亞煉油廠採用的技術帶到巴西。

Finally, we will continue to investigate additional pension annuitization actions to reduce risk as market conditions allow. At the same time, we are focused on new technologies. We shared this information at our Investor Day in November. If you've not had the chance to read that material, we've kept it archived on the Investors section of our website. I would like to briefly revisit some of this today due to its importance and how it aligns with our purpose and vision.

最後，我們將繼續調查額外的養老金年金化措施，以在市場條件允許的情況下降低風險。同時，我們專注於新技術。我們在 11 月的投資者日分享了這些信息。如果您沒有機會閱讀該材料，我們已將其存檔在我們網站的“投資者”部分。由於它的重要性以及它如何與我們的目標和願景保持一致，我今天想簡要回顧一下其中的一些內容。

We are at a time when the world needs more sustainable solutions. And Alcoa is well positioned to make a positive difference and drive value. We are addressing these challenges with a commodity cost-conscious mindset supported by operational and technical experience. The technology road map, which includes ELYSIS, ASTRAEA technology and the Refinery of the Future provide a path to help reach our net 0 ambition, which we announced last October. The projects also have the potential to further differentiate Alcoa and drive stockholder value.

我們正處於世界需要更多可持續解決方案的時代。美國鋁業公司處於有利地位，可以產生積極的影響並推動價值。我們以運營和技術經驗支持的商品成本意識思維方式應對這些挑戰。包括 ELYSIS、ASTRAEA 技術和未來煉油廠在內的技術路線圖為幫助實現我們去年 10 月宣布的淨 0 目標提供了途徑。這些項目還具有進一步區分美鋁和提高股東價值的潛力。

Our Refinery of the Future redesign and our ELYSIS 0 carbon smelting technology are research and development projects that not only aim to reduce cost and improve efficiency but also target complete reduction of greenhouse gas generation from their respective production processes.

我們的未來煉油廠重新設計和我們的 ELYSIS 0 碳冶煉技術是研發項目，不僅旨在降低成本和提高效率，還旨在完全減少各自生產過程中產生的溫室氣體。

This year, our ELYSIS joint venture will begin detailed planning for its supply chain, including the production of the proprietary anode/cathode materials that are critical to the carbon-free smelting process that was first developed at the Alcoa Technical Center. Also, work is underway for additional commercial-sized testing next year at 450 kiloamperes. With the current development pathway, the JV aims to have technology available for installation from 2024, allowing potential adopters to produce carbon-free aluminum approximately 2 years later.

今年，我們的 ELYSIS 合資企業將開始對其供應鏈進行詳細規劃，包括生產對美鋁技術中心首次開發的無碳冶煉工藝至關重要的專有陽極/陰極材料。此外，明年還將在 450 公里電流下進行額外的商業規模測試。按照目前的發展路徑，合資企業的目標是從 2024 年開始提供可安裝的技術，使潛在的採用者能夠在大約 2 年後生產無碳鋁。

Another exciting R&D project is our ASTRAEA process. We are working to ramp up this innovation, which can purify aluminum scrap to levels that far exceed the commercial-grade quality of metal produced from a smelter. As the world needs more aluminum, the technology can leverage the vast quantities of low-value automotive scrap. We can use this material as a feed source to create high-purity aluminum that can be converted for premium end-use applications such as aerospace. The technology is currently working at bench scale, and we plan to develop a pilot demonstration facility next year with engineering and design work taking place this year.

另一個令人興奮的研發項目是我們的 ASTRAEA 工藝。我們正在努力加強這項創新，它可以將鋁廢料淨化到遠遠超過冶煉廠生產的商業級金屬質量的水平。隨著世界需要更多的鋁，該技術可以利用大量的低價值汽車廢料。我們可以使用這種材料作為原料來製造高純度鋁，這些鋁可以轉化為航空航天等高端終端應用。該技術目前正處於實驗室規模，我們計劃明年開發一個試點示範設施，今年將進行工程和設計工作。

Next, our Refinery of the Future project bundles numerous technologies and process improvements to eliminate emissions while also developing beneficial applications for bauxite residue. From an emission standpoint, the refinery of the future will involve 2 primary innovations we're working to develop: mechanical vapor recompression, which has financial support from the Australian government; and electric calcination. Adapting mechanical vapor recompression to refining could replace all fossil fuel energy consumed in our boilers, allowing refineries to operate from renewable electricity. Calcination is the final stage in the refining process, where alumina hydrate crystals are heated to remove water molecules. Converting that process to a renewable energy rather than fossil fuels would allow all of the steam generated by the calciners to be captured and reused, which would also significantly reduce water use.

接下來，我們的“未來煉油廠”項目結合了眾多技術和工藝改進，以消除排放，同時還開發了鋁土礦殘渣的有益應用。從排放的角度來看，未來的煉油廠將涉及我們正在努力開發的兩項主要創新：機械蒸汽再壓縮，得到澳大利亞政府的財政支持；和電煅燒。將機械蒸汽再壓縮應用於煉油可以取代我們鍋爐中消耗的所有化石燃料能源，從而使煉油廠能夠使用可再生電力運營。煅燒是精煉過程的最後階段，其中水合氧化鋁晶體被加熱以去除水分子。將該過程轉化為可再生能源而不是化石燃料，將允許煅燒爐產生的所有蒸汽被捕獲和再利用，這也將顯著減少用水量。

Next, we announced last year the beginning of a joint development project related to the market for high purity alumina, or HPA. A nonmetallurgical alumina, HPA is used for items like lithium-ion batteries and energy-efficient LED lighting applications and other sapphire glass products. It's a market expected to grow due to the need for low-carbon solutions in transportation and other sectors. The first pilot trials have so far produced average purity levels that align with what is expected in the HPA market.

接下來，我們去年宣布開始一項與高純氧化鋁（HPA）市場相關的聯合開發項目。 HPA 是一種非冶金氧化鋁，用於鋰離子電池和節能 LED 照明應用以及其他藍寶石玻璃產品。由於交通和其他行業需要低碳解決方案，這個市場有望增長。迄今為止，第一次試點試驗產生的平均純度水平與 HPA 市場的預期水平一致。

Finally, you'll see on the far right of this slide our estimates for future capital to support these projects. Importantly, there are several stage gates for each of them, which are still in the R&D phase, and full project funding is not yet approved. To be implemented, each one must provide expected stockholder returns.

最後，您將在這張幻燈片的最右側看到我們對支持這些項目的未來資金的估計。重要的是，它們每個都有幾個階段性門檻，目前仍處於研發階段，尚未批准全部項目資金。要實施，每一項都必須提供預期的股東回報。

Next, with so much financial progress, I want to revisit the capital allocation framework, which we simplified late last year. You'll notice there are some important similarities from our prior framework. We will continue, for example, to focus on a strong balance sheet through the cycle, which includes both our cash and our net debt position.

接下來，由於財務進展如此之快，我想重新審視去年年底我們簡化的資本分配框架。您會注意到我們之前的框架有一些重要的相似之處。例如，我們將繼續關注整個週期內強勁的資產負債表，其中包括我們的現金和淨債務頭寸。

Next, we will continue to allocate capital dollars to both sustain and improve our operations. This year, we've increased our sustaining capital to $450 million, up from $356 million the prior year. This change is driven mostly by the planned mine move at Juruti and improvements to some impoundments.

接下來，我們將繼續分配資金來維持和改善我們的運營。今年，我們將維持資本從上一年的 3.56 億美元增加到 4.5 億美元。這一變化主要是由 Juruti 計劃的礦山搬遷和對一些蓄水池的改進推動的。

Below the line on the chart, for value creation, we have 3 elements listed in no specific order of priority: returning cash to stockholders, transforming the portfolio and positioning for growth. On returning cash to stockholders, we initiated our first cash dividend in the fourth quarter, totaling $19 million at $0.10 per share. We also closed out in Q4 a prior $200 million buyback authorization, repurchasing 3.2 million shares. We currently have an unused $500 million buyback program available.

在圖表下方，對於價值創造，我們列出了 3 個要素，沒有特定的優先順序：向股東返還現金、轉變投資組合和增長定位。在向股東返還現金時，我們在第四季度啟動了第一次現金股息，總計 1900 萬美元，每股 0.10 美元。我們還在第四季度完成了之前的 2 億美元回購授權，回購了 320 萬股。我們目前有一個未使用的 5 億美元回購計劃可用。

Next, on strengthening the portfolio through our transformation process. It's important to emphasize again that we have options to mitigate closure costs. The sales of noncore assets, for example, in 2021 helped to offset costs associated with closure actions. On the portfolio transformation, as noted earlier, we've now addressed roughly 75% of our 1.5 million metric tons of smelting capacity as we're just now past the 2-year mark on the 5-year program, which we first announced in October of 2019. The tally includes the 2-year curtailment and future repowering of San Ciprián; the curtailment of Intalco and permanent closure of Wenatchee, both in the United States; the full restart now underway at Alumar in Brazil; and the repowering at Portland Aluminum in Australia, including restarting a bit more capacity.

接下來，通過我們的轉型過程加強投資組合。重要的是再次強調，我們可以選擇降低關閉成本。例如，2021 年非核心資產的銷售有助於抵消與關閉行動相關的成本。在投資組合轉型方面，如前所述，我們現在已經解決了 150 萬噸冶煉產能中的大約 75%，因為我們剛剛超過了我們在 5 年計劃中首次宣布的 2 年大關。 2019 年 10 月。統計包括 San Ciprián 的 2 年縮減和未來重新供電；在美國縮減 Intalco 並永久關閉 Wenatchee；巴西 Alumar 正在全面重啟；以及澳大利亞波特蘭鋁業的重新供電，包括重新啟動更多產能。

Finally on this slide, our capital allocation includes positioning our company for growth with a key time frame in 2024 as we develop and implement technology innovations after progressing through appropriate stage gates.

最後在這張幻燈片上，我們的資本分配包括將我們的公司定位為在 2024 年的關鍵時間框架內實現增長，因為我們在通過適當的階段閘門後開發和實施技術創新。

To summarize, 2021 provided an opportunity to demonstrate the work we've been doing across our business and our segments. Alcoa employees across the globe have made a difference. We focused on the fundamentals of a commodity-based company, strengthening our foundation for a brighter future. In 2021, it all came together. We made our highest ever adjusted net income. We also saw strong profitability from our Aluminum segment with robust market pricing. We expect stronger markets to continue due to positive changes in the aluminum industry, including meaningful supply constraints in China.

總而言之，2021 年提供了一個展示我們在業務和細分市場中所做工作的機會。全球各地的美鋁員工都做出了改變。我們專注於以商品為基礎的公司的基本面，為更光明的未來奠定了堅實的基礎。 2021年，這一切都走到了一起。我們取得了有史以來最高的調整後淨收入。我們還看到我們的鋁部門以強勁的市場定價實現了強勁的盈利能力。我們預計，由於鋁行業的積極變化，包括中國有意義的供應限制，市場將繼續走強。

Next, we've positioned Alcoa to have strength through the market cycles, which supported our decision to provide the capital returns we announced for the fourth quarter.

接下來，我們將美鋁定位為在市場週期中擁有實力，這支持了我們提供我們宣布的第四季度資本回報的決定。

Finally, after the challenges the industry has faced over the prior decade, it's a very good time to be in the upstream aluminum business. We are the right company at the right time, one where the industry's fundamentals are changing. The importance of excellence in environmental, social and governance standards are coming to the forefront. This is a change that benefits our company now and in the future.

最後，在過去十年行業面臨挑戰之後，現在是進入上游鋁業務的好時機。我們在正確的時間是正確的公司，行業的基本面正在發生變化。卓越的環境、社會和治理標準的重要性日益凸顯。這是一項有益於我們公司現在和未來的變化。

Thank you once again for your trust in our company as we work to drive value for the future. And with that, Bill and I are eager to take your questions. Operator, who do we have on the line?

再次感謝您對我們公司的信任，因為我們努力為未來創造價值。有了這個，比爾和我很想回答你的問題。接線員，我們有誰在線？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Sathish Kasinathan with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sathish Kasinathan。

My first question is on the aluminum shipment guidance for 2022. The 2.5 million to 2.6 million tonne guidance appears to be a little bit light. Can you provide some more color given the various moving parts? I understand that there will be lower volumes from San Ciprián, but this should be offset by the restart of Alumar smelter and the higher volumes from Portland. Warrick volumes should be lower, but it should just be 1 quarter impact given it was divested in April of last year. So any color you can provide, please?

我的第一個問題是關於 2022 年鋁出貨量的指導。250 萬至 260 萬噸的指導似乎有點輕。考慮到各種活動部件，您能否提供更多顏色？我知道 San Ciprián 的產量會減少，但這應該被 Alumar 冶煉廠的重啟和波特蘭的產量增加所抵消。 Warrick 的銷量應該會更低，但考慮到它在去年 4 月被剝離，應該只是 1 個季度的影響。那請問有什麼顏色可以提供嗎？

Sathish, I think you've hit on all the major moving parts. We had worked in the first quarter of last year. We will get the San Ciprián smelter curtailed after -- within the next week or so. So we won't have 11 months of shipments there. And then we are ramping up some small amount of production at Portland, and that starts in the third quarter and goes into the fourth quarter, and then some production in Alumar. But I think you've hit on all the major items.

Sathish，我認為你已經了解了所有主要的活動部分。我們在去年第一季度工作過。我們將在接下來的一周左右內削減 San Ciprián 冶煉廠。所以我們在那裡不會有 11 個月的出貨量。然後我們在波特蘭增加了一些產量，從第三季度開始一直到第四季度，然後在 Alumar 進行一些生產。但我認為你已經了解了所有主要項目。

So just to be clear, the 400,000 to 500,000 decline in the annual volumes, does it include any lower third-party purchases for the year? Is that the reason for the larger-than-expected decline?

所以要明確一點，400,000 到 500,000 的年銷量下降，是否包括今年第三方採購量的減少？這就是降幅超預期的原因嗎？

Well, there may be some smaller amounts of buy/resell, but that's not the major driver.

好吧，可能會有少量的購買/轉售，但這不是主要驅動力。

Okay. Okay. And my second question is on the overall guidance for the first quarter of 2022. So I just want to clarify if the guidance takes into consideration the potential reversal in intersegment eliminations, which was $120 million headwind in fourth quarter.

好的。好的。我的第二個問題是關於 2022 年第一季度的總體指導。因此，我只想澄清該指導是否考慮了部門間淘汰的潛在逆轉，第四季度逆風為 1.2 億美元。

It does take that into account. So it takes into 2 things related to alumina pricing. We have lower alumina pricing currently than what we had in the fourth quarter, but we will have a reversal of that intersegment loss in this case. So we will have that reversal also.

它確實考慮到了這一點。因此，它考慮了與氧化鋁定價相關的兩件事。我們目前的氧化鋁價格低於第四季度的價格，但在這種情況下，我們將扭轉部門間的虧損。所以我們也會有這種逆轉。

Our next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。

I wanted to ask, first off, high level, looking across your portfolios we just heard and looking at what's remaining. I know you said you're still doing an evaluation of the footprint. You still have a number of U.S. assets that are set. And I was just wondering, are you inclined to believe that after Alumar and Portland, you're happy with your footprint? Or is it still possible for you to visit work in Massena West? That's my first question.

我想問，首先，高水平，看看我們剛剛聽到的你的投資組合，看看剩下的。我知道你說過你仍在評估足跡。您仍然有許多已設置的美國資產。我只是想知道，您是否傾向於相信在 Alumar 和 Portland 之後，您對自己的足跡感到滿意？或者您仍然可以在馬塞納西部參觀工作嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. I'll handle that one, Timna. We're always looking at what we choose to operate. And so it's -- we look at what's happening in the current environment. We project that out as well. And so both from a restart side, and we do have some curtailed capacity, but also from the capacity for potential curtailments or divestitures, et cetera, it's an active process. And it also connects over, Timna, and we've talked about this before, it connects with trying to repower these facilities to look for ways in order to invest to strengthen them, to build up partnerships.

是的。我會處理那個，蒂姆娜。我們一直在關注我們選擇經營什麼。所以它 - 我們看看當前環境中正在發生的事情。我們也將其投影出來。因此，無論是從重啟的角度來看，我們確實有一些產能削減，而且從潛在的削減或剝離的產能來看，等等，這是一個積極的過程。它還連接，蒂姆納，我們之前已經討論過這個問題，它與嘗試重新啟動這些設施以尋找方法來投資以加強它們，建立夥伴關係。

So I think the straight answer to your question is that, yes, we're always looking at our portfolio to try and decide how we can drive towards the first quartile, number one; and then number two, make sure that we're meeting our decarbonization targets and driving towards net 0 in 2050, which obviously is a good portion away, but we need to be actively working on that now.

所以我認為你的問題的直接答案是，是的，我們一直在關注我們的投資組合，試圖決定我們如何才能邁向第一個四分位，第一；然後第二點，確保我們在 2050 年實現脫碳目標並朝著淨零目標邁進，這顯然還有很長的路要走，但我們現在需要積極努力。

Got you. The second question is really broader about San Ciprián in particular. So first off, you had said it would be about $100 million hit in the fourth quarter. I was wondering if that materialized. There's some discussion of a wind power option for San Ciprián that I've seen in the media that you've tentatively agreed to. Wondering if that's a viable option, if you can discuss that. And the local media also had some reports of about $100 million CapEx investment that's been committed to. So just trying to get a little more color around the ramifications of San Ciprián and how to think about it going forward.

得到你。第二個問題的範圍更廣，尤其是關於圣西普里安。因此，首先，您曾說過第四季度將達到約 1 億美元。我想知道這是否實現了。我在媒體上看到了一些關於 San Ciprián 風力發電選項的討論，你暫時同意了。想知道這是否是一個可行的選擇，如果你可以討論。當地媒體也報導了大約 1 億美元的資本支出投資。因此，只是試圖為圣西普里安的影響以及如何考慮它的未來提供更多色彩。

So Timna, let me take the first and the third, and then Roy can address the wind power question. We had projected, I believe, around $85 million of sequential EBITDA impact from San Ciprián. We saw around $75 million of sequential negative impacts from San Ciprián. That's around $65 million in the smelter and approximately $12 million. So I guess that's $77 million in the refinery from the strike there. So we did see essentially what we thought.

所以蒂姆納，讓我拿第一個和第三個，然後羅伊可以解決風力發電問題。我相信，我們預計 San Ciprián 對 EBITDA 的連續影響約為 8500 萬美元。我們看到來自圣西普里安的連續負面影響約為 7500 萬美元。這大約是冶煉廠的 6500 萬美元和大約 1200 萬美元。所以我猜煉油廠從那裡的罷工中損失了 7700 萬美元。所以我們確實看到了我們的想法。

As far as the cash situation goes, we had projected around $100 million of capital that would be held up in working capital. And given the fact that we had around 50,000 metric tons of shipments that didn't go, it was at least $100 million of working capital that's tied up at the end of the year. As far as the $100 million of CapEx, we have committed to $103 million of restricted cash. And that breaks down that we've committed to around $68 million of capital spend at the facility over the next couple of years and $35 million of restart costs. So you'll see that on our balance sheet. That's actually held as restricted cash because we've committed to spend that over the next couple of years as we prepare for a restart.

就現金情況而言，我們預計將有大約 1 億美元的資金用於營運資金。考慮到我們有大約 50,000 公噸的貨物沒有發貨，到年底至少有 1 億美元的營運資金被佔用。至於 1 億美元的資本支出，我們已承諾提供 1.03 億美元的受限現金。這打破了我們承諾在未來幾年內在該設施上投入約 6800 萬美元的資本支出和 3500 萬美元的重啟成本。所以你會在我們的資產負債表上看到這一點。這實際上是作為受限現金持有的，因為我們已承諾在未來幾年內將其用於為重啟做準備。

Roy, do you want to take the wind power question?

羅伊，你想問風電問題嗎？

Yes. And so just stepping back and looking at the deal that we have in San Ciprián, I think it's a good outcome because it gives us some clarity through what is a pretty incredible dislocation in energy prices in Europe and very specifically in Spain. And so our -- sort of the most important next step was to reach this curtailment because it cuts off those losses, which is what Bill described very well.

是的。因此，只要退後一步，看看我們在圣西普里安達成的協議，我認為這是一個很好的結果，因為它讓我們清楚地了解了歐洲，特別是西班牙的能源價格令人難以置信的錯位。所以我們 - 最重要的下一步是實現這種削減，因為它切斷了這些損失，這正是比爾描述得很好。

So now we're already starting to mobilize and look towards this capital spend that we've committed to. But more importantly, for that committed restart, January 1, 2024, we're looking for energy contracts that can stretch out for longer and can take away the energy price risk. And those, of course, tend to be linked to potential renewables projects. And in this case, you had mentioned wind power. Those are pre-agreements or MOUs. So they're the first step in this process. They are indicative of moving in the right direction.

所以現在我們已經開始動員並關注我們承諾的資本支出。但更重要的是，對於 2024 年 1 月 1 日承諾的重啟，我們正在尋找可以延長更長時間並消除能源價格風險的能源合同。當然，這些往往與潛在的可再生能源項目有關。在這種情況下，您提到了風力發電。這些是預先協議或諒解備忘錄。所以他們是這個過程的第一步。它們表明朝著正確的方向前進。

And so I think it's -- we need to have policy in the regional government, (inaudible) connected with the national government policy on how to build those renewable power opportunities and then connected to San Ciprián, which is what allows us to have this step change improvement in energy price that we could entertain in January 1, 2024. So the important thing is, is that we're reaching curtailment, which means we're no longer consuming what is incredibly high-priced energy, and at the same time, working to make San Ciprián as competitive as we possibly can for that restart, January 1, 2024.

所以我認為這是 - 我們需要在地方政府中製定政策，（聽不清）與國家政府關於如何建立這些可再生能源機會的政策聯繫起來，然後與圣西普里安聯繫起來，這就是讓我們能夠邁出這一步的原因我們可以在 2024 年 1 月 1 日改變能源價格的上漲。所以重要的是，我們正在達到限電，這意味著我們不再消耗高價能源，同時，努力使圣西普里安在 2024 年 1 月 1 日重啟時盡可能具有競爭力。

Our next question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Carlos De Alba。

So first question, just to remain in San Ciprián, for how long do you expect to use the stocks -- primary metal stocks that you currently have there? And what is the -- how are you going to run the cast house? How are you going to feedstock it after you run down those inventories?

所以第一個問題，只是留在圣西普里安，你預計使用這些庫存多久——你目前在那裡擁有的初級金屬庫存？什麼是——你將如何經營演員工作室？在你耗盡這些庫存後，你將如何給它提供原料？

So we anticipate using that inventory over the next 8 to 9 months, Carlos. And then after that, we will bring in cold metal.

所以我們預計在接下來的 8 到 9 個月內使用該庫存，卡洛斯。然後，我們將引入冷金屬。

If I may ask, Bill, would you be buying this from third parties? Or will you be bringing it from other European smelters -- across European smelters?

如果我可以問，比爾，你會從第三方購買這個嗎？或者你會從其他歐洲冶煉廠帶來它——跨歐洲冶煉廠？

I think we'll do whatever logistically makes the most sense, Carlos. I don't necessarily have an answer for where we'll be getting that metal after the 10 months, but we will continue to run the cast house.

卡洛斯，我想我們會做任何邏輯上最有意義的事情。對於 10 個月後我們將在哪裡獲得這種金屬，我不一定有答案，但我們將繼續經營鑄造廠。

All right. Understood. And maybe, Roy, if you could comment, is there any other comments that you can add to the VAT increase that you expect to benefit the profitability of the primary metal -- yes, smelting operation this year?

好的。明白了。也許，羅伊，如果您可以發表評論，您是否可以添加任何其他評論來增加增值稅，以使初級金屬的盈利能力受益——是的，今年的冶煉業務？

Yes, I can give you some qualitative comments. I think when we look at the markets, and these markets tend to be driven in North America, particularly on an annual basis. So we've moved through that annual contracting period. In Europe, they tend to be redefined on a quarterly basis. And so you do see some changes as the year progresses. And then our -- the available capacity that we have or capacity that we can build and add to our portfolio over the course of the year, then we can take advantage of what are typically very good spot prices.

是的，我可以給你一些定性的意見。我認為，當我們觀察市場時，這些市場往往受到北美的驅動，尤其是每年一次。所以我們已經度過了那個年度合同期。在歐洲，它們往往每季度重新定義一次。因此，隨著時間的推移，您確實會看到一些變化。然後是我們擁有的可用產能或我們可以在一年中建立並添加到我們的投資組合中的產能，然後我們可以利用通常非常好的現貨價格。

And so for us, it is -- when we had sort of that annual contract period in North America particularly, we were seeing a lot of strength and continue to see a lot of strength. It is a deficit market in North America right now. There is a clear demand upsurge in across all of our different products. And so it was a very good time to be going out there for those annual contracts. And I would argue it's the same in Europe as well and will likely become even tighter given all of the different European curtailments that we're seeing.

所以對我們來說，尤其是當我們在北美有那種年度合同期時，我們看到了很多力量，並繼續看到很多力量。它現在是北美的赤字市場。我們所有不同的產品都有明顯的需求激增。因此，這是為那些年度合同外出的好時機。我認為歐洲也是如此，考慮到我們所看到的所有不同的歐洲削減，它可能會變得更加嚴格。

So just on a qualitative basis, I think it is -- there is a definite move upwards on value-added premiums in general. And we're striving and driving to make sure that we can produce as much as we possibly can of these value-added products.

因此，僅在定性的基礎上，我認為是——總體而言，增值保費肯定會上升。我們正在努力並努力確保我們能夠盡可能多地生產這些增值產品。

And then in terms of when do we see that hitting your P&L, is this mostly in the first quarter? I mean the contracts reset on January or throughout the year or throughout the first half of the year?

然後就我們什麼時候看到你的損益表而言，這主要是在第一季度嗎？我的意思是合同在一月份或全年或上半年重置？

So typically, they reset at January. And again, you see sort of the North American reset in January, and then you'll see the European that will have the quarterly driven changes in pricing that will happen on -- for each quarter. So it's not as simple as one impact and then doesn't change, and it also could change depending on what the product mix looks like itself.

所以通常情況下，他們會在一月份重置。再一次，你會在 1 月份看到北美的重置，然後你會看到歐洲將在每個季度發生季度驅動的定價變化。所以它不像一個影響那麼簡單然後不會改變，它也可能會根據產品組合本身的樣子而改變。

I don't know, Bill, if you want to add to that?

我不知道，比爾，你想補充嗎？

The only thing I'd add, Carlos, is in the guidance that we've provided, we've included the fact that there is a pricing reset in the first quarter. And we will see 2 pricing benefits in the first quarter. The first is the higher value-add premiums across the Aluminum segment. And the second is the nonrecurrence of the negative pricing that you see in the Alumina segment in the fourth quarter. As alumina prices came down in the fourth quarter, we have some block pricing that gets repriced. And that was a negative in the fourth quarter, and so that won't recur in the first.

卡洛斯，我唯一要補充的是在我們提供的指導中，我們已經包括了第一季度定價重置的事實。我們將在第一季度看到 2 個定價優勢。首先是整個鋁業的增值溢價較高。第二個是您在第四季度在氧化鋁部門看到的負定價不再發生。隨著第四季度氧化鋁價格的下跌，我們對一些整體定價進行了重新定價。這在第四季度是負面的，因此第一季度不會再發生這種情況。

Our next question comes from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Emily Chieng。

Congratulations on further progress with your portfolio of new strategy there. My first question is just around the CapEx outlined but not yet sanctioned for the HPA project in 2022 and 2023. I guess at what point during the year should we expect the same update on when this additional band will be deployed? And otherwise, how close are we to reaching those different stage gates there?

祝賀您的新戰略組合取得進一步進展。我的第一個問題是關於 2022 年和 2023 年 HPA 項目概述但尚未批准的資本支出。我想在這一年中的什麼時候，我們應該期待在何時部署這個額外頻段的相同更新？否則，我們離到達那裡不同的舞台大門還有多遠？

Yes. From an HPA perspective, Emily, and I appreciate the question, this is an active research and development project. And in fact, there's probably a lot more information that you're getting because of the joint venture partner because of how important this is to their ongoing business. And so over the course of 2022, we'll see advancements in what is right now a relatively small-scale application to make sure that it actually works. And then coming into the end of this year is when we'll be actually starting to design and consider whether we move forward with that larger project. And so I think there will be more information coming out as 2022 continues forward.

是的。從 HPA 的角度來看，Emily 和我很欣賞這個問題，這是一個積極的研究和開發項目。事實上，您可能會因為合資夥伴而獲得更多信息，因為這對他們正在進行的業務非常重要。因此，在 2022 年期間，我們將看到目前相對較小規模的應用程序的進步，以確保它確實有效。然後到今年年底，我們將真正開始設計並考慮是否推進這個更大的項目。因此，我認為隨著 2022 年的繼續前進，將會有更多信息出現。

And I would just reiterate the fact that for projects like this that aren't in the R&D phase, and it's no different for ASTRAEA and to a certain extent ELYSIS, although ELYSIS is further along, we go through these stage gates to make sure that when we choose to invest capital, we're doing in a project that will be very -- that will be successful, that we've been able to eliminate the technological risk, but at the same time, also have very good shareholder returns. So we need both the market size, but more importantly, the cost side to come in where we wanted to.

我只想重申這樣一個事實，對於像這樣的項目，不處於研發階段，對於 ASTRAEA 和在某種程度上 ELYSIS 來說沒有什麼不同，雖然 ELYSIS 走得更遠，但我們通過這些階段的大門來確保當我們選擇投資資金時，我們正在做一個非常成功的項目，我們已經能夠消除技術風險，但同時也有非常好的股東回報。所以我們需要市場規模，但更重要的是，我們想要達到的成本方面。

My second question is just around the capital allocation piece. So net leverage is well below your prior target. Cash balance is well above the previous $1 billion target you've talked about in the past. How should we think about what the right level of cash is on the balance sheet and perhaps what that could mean for how capital returns could look throughout 2022?

我的第二個問題是關於資本配置的。因此，淨槓桿率遠低於您之前的目標。現金餘額遠高於您過去談到的 10 億美元目標。我們應該如何考慮資產負債表上的正確現金水平，以及這對整個 2022 年的資本回報可能意味著什麼？

Let me -- I'll take that one, Roy. Emily, as you alluded to, you've seen over the last 5 years that our cash balances have fluctuated. There's been times where we've been below the $1 billion target. And as of today, we're clearly above the $1 billion target. With that in mind, we initiated the dividend in the fourth quarter. We bought back roughly $150 million of shares in the fourth quarter. We have a further $500 million authorization that we can execute in 2022.

讓我——我要那個，羅伊。艾米麗，正如你所提到的，在過去 5 年裡，你已經看到我們的現金餘額發生了波動。有時我們低於 10 億美元的目標。截至今天，我們顯然超過了 10 億美元的目標。考慮到這一點，我們在第四季度開始了股息。我們在第四季度回購了大約 1.5 億美元的股票。我們還有 5 億美元的授權，可以在 2022 年執行。

And so as we look at all of that information, we've developed the revised capital allocation framework. It will be focused on 3 things: returning cash to shareholders, repositioning the portfolio and positioning for growth in the future. You've seen that the repositioning of the portfolio actually does cost us some money. So we -- in the San Ciprián situation, we've committed $103 million of capital to restart that facility. But the -- so we have that. We've got the Alumar restart that will cost us some. So that's what's going into the thinking behind the capital allocation program.

因此，當我們查看所有這些信息時，我們已經制定了修訂後的資本分配框架。它將專注於三件事：向股東返還現金、重新定位投資組合以及為未來的增長定位。您已經看到，投資組合的重新定位實際上確實花費了我們一些錢。所以我們——在圣西普里安的情況下，我們已經投入了 1.03 億美元的資金來重啟該設施。但是 - 所以我們有那個。我們已經重新啟動了 Alumar，這將花費我們一些錢。這就是資本配置計劃背後的想法。

Our next question comes from Michael Glick with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Glick。

Yes. Maybe just a follow-up there. On the buyback, you did $150 million 4Q. How should we think about the pace of buybacks moving through 2022? And then just generally, your thoughts on dividend increases versus buybacks?

是的。也許只是那裡的後續行動。在回購時，你在第四季度做了 1.5 億美元。我們應該如何考慮到 2022 年的回購步伐？然後一般來說，您對股息增加與回購的看法？

Yes. We really don't have any guidance, Michael, on how quickly we'll execute upon the future buyback. It will be based on -- as we see cash coming in and the market situation. As we consider the question around dividends versus buybacks, the dividend was set as an initial dividend. And I should -- before we rush to talk about potentially increasing the dividend, we just paid our first dividend in the fourth quarter after 5 years of being an independent company. So we set that dividend at a level that we thought we could be comfortable through the cycle. So as we consider the future use of excess free cash flow, we'll be balancing the dividend versus additional buybacks.

是的。邁克爾，我們真的沒有任何關於我們將在未來回購時執行多快的指導。它將基於 - 我們看到現金流入和市場情況。當我們考慮有關股息與回購的問題時，股息被設定為初始股息。我應該 - 在我們急於談論可能增加股息之前，在成為一家獨立公司 5 年後，我們剛剛在第四季度支付了第一筆股息。因此，我們將股息設定在我們認為我們可以在整個週期中感到舒適的水平。因此，當我們考慮未來使用超額自由現金流時，我們將平衡股息與額外回購。

Got it. That's helpful. And as it relates to the cost side, could you maybe go into some of the key items on the raw material side and how you see the trajectory of costs moving through the year?

知道了。這很有幫助。由於它與成本方面有關，您能否談談原材料方面的一些關鍵項目，以及您如何看待全年成本的變化軌跡？

I'll address the first quarter specifically. The cost situation on raw materials is very fluid, so we haven't provided a full year guidance of the raw material situation. Two big cost drivers on raw materials. The first is caustic and the second is carbon products. Those are adding up to be about $50 million of sequential quarter negative impact. So that's included in the guidance that we've provided, but $50 million combined between caustic and carbon products.

我將具體談談第一季度。原材料的成本情況非常不穩定，因此我們沒有提供原材料情況的全年指導。原材料的兩大成本驅動因素。第一個是苛性鹼，第二個是碳產品。這些加起來帶來了約 5000 萬美元的連續季度負面影響。所以這包含在我們提供的指導中，但在苛性鹼和碳產品之間總共需要 5000 萬美元。

Our next question comes from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Independent Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Tumazos 和 John Tumazos 非常獨立的研究。

Thank you very much for the last 20 pages of the slides. They're very helpful, especially Slide 31 and 34. So it's very helpful. My question involves your 2% to 3% demand growth estimate for the year. World auto sales might grow 2x or 3x or 4x that depending on chip availability. EV sales that typically are all aluminum grew 50% to 100% in different markets. The bev can is growing with displacement of PET bottles and different capacity expansions by can makers like Ball. World GDP in most regions might grow by more than 2% to 3%. Which markets do you expect aluminum to be cannibalized or priced out of? Building construction, electrical uses, internal combustion engines, other markets. Clearly, there's many segments that are going to grow more than 2% to 3%.

非常感謝您提供幻燈片的最後 20 頁。它們非常有幫助，尤其是幻燈片 31 和 34。所以它非常有幫助。我的問題涉及您對今年 2% 到 3% 的需求增長估計。全球汽車銷量可能會增長 2 倍或 3 倍或 4 倍，具體取決於芯片的可用性。在不同市場，通常全鋁的電動汽車銷量增長了 50% 至 100%。隨著 PET 瓶的替代以及 Ball 等罐頭製造商的不同產能擴張，bev 罐正在增長。大多數地區的世界 GDP 可能增長 2% 至 3% 以上。您預計鋁會在哪些市場被蠶食或定價過高？建築施工、電氣用途、內燃機、其他市場。顯然，有許多細分市場的增長率將超過 2% 到 3%。

Yes. John, let me try and provide a little extra information that might be helpful. And I'm not sure I would talk too much about cannibalization simply because while we are enjoying positive aluminum prices and certainly like it when it's above $3,000, we're seeing a lot of that same type of commodity price inflation across some of the competing metals as well. And so I'm not sure if it's so much cannibalization as some weakness that we see in the markets as they're sitting today.

是的。約翰，讓我嘗試提供一些可能有用的額外信息。我不確定我是否會過多談論自相殘殺，因為雖然我們正在享受積極的鋁價並且當然喜歡它超過 3,000 美元，但我們在一些競爭性商品中看到了很多相同類型的商品價格上漲金屬也是如此。因此，我不確定這是否是我們今天在市場上看到的一些弱點之間的蠶食。

And so let me take one quick example in transport or construction growth inside of China. As we watched some of the fiscal measures that they've taken and the tightening of some of the credit, that's something that tends to drive a flatter construction market, and that's how we were looking at this up until this point. Now that fiscal policy can change. We can see more money going into construction. And so that could drive a much more vibrant market. So from a Chinese standpoint, it really is around the construction side and it's the availability of credit. So if we see that turning around, I think you could start to argue, which is I think where you're going with, the demand could be stronger.

因此，讓我舉一個中國境內交通或建築業增長的簡單例子。當我們看到他們採取的一些財政措施和一些信貸收緊時，這往往會推動建築市場趨於平緩，這就是我們在此之前的看法。現在財政政策可以改變。我們可以看到更多資金投入建設。因此，這可以推動一個更加活躍的市場。所以從中國的角度來看，這確實是圍繞建築方面的，它是信貸的可用性。因此，如果我們看到情況好轉，我認為您可能會開始爭論，我認為您將在哪裡進行，需求可能會更強。

From the rest of the world standpoint, you had a very strong 2021, this very sharp rebound. I think we continue to see good strength going forward, and we're seeing strength across all the different markets. And again, I think transportation is a place where we have seen those positives. You've got the chip shortage, which sort of comes in and puts a little bit of uncertainty around how much of that actually will be driven forward. But in the end, I think it's -- we had a really strong 2021. We're going to continue to build on that strength, and we're going to continue to see that aluminum is used across the board pretty much in all these type of markets.

從世界其他地區的角度來看，你們在 2021 年經歷了非常強勁的反彈，這是一次非常劇烈的反彈。我認為我們繼續看到良好的發展勢頭，並且我們看到所有不同市場的實力。再說一次，我認為交通是我們看到這些積極因素的地方。你遇到了芯片短缺問題，這種情況會出現，並且對於實際將推動多少芯片產生一些不確定性。但最後，我認為這是——我們有一個非常強勁的 2021 年。我們將繼續加強這種實力，我們將繼續看到鋁在所有這些方面幾乎全線使用市場類型。

Our next question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Lucas Pipes 和 B. Riley Securities。

Congratulations on a great year. I wanted to circle back on your smelting footprint for my first question, maybe put a different twist on it. Looking at global power markets, you think the U.S. smelters have become relatively more competitive, but that's also where outside of San Ciprián your idle capacity is still located. How do you think about these assets? And could it make sense to restart some of that capacity?

祝賀偉大的一年。對於我的第一個問題，我想回到你的冶煉足跡上，也許可以換個方式。縱觀全球電力市場，您認為美國冶煉廠的競爭力相對更強，但這也是您在圣西普里安以外的閒置產能所在的地方。您如何看待這些資產？重新啟動部分產能是否有意義？

Lucas, so it's a really good question, and it's also a pretty complex answer because energy is, first and foremost, one of the most important decisions when you come to a restart or come into a brownfield or a greenfield someday down the road. And it's absolutely true that in the U.S., you have access to power.

盧卡斯，所以這是一個非常好的問題，也是一個相當複雜的答案，因為當你有一天要重新啟動或進入棕地或綠地時，能源首先是最重要的決定之一。確實，在美國，你有權獲得權力。

The second question that naturally comes is when you have access to well-priced power, what is the power source? Is it renewable versus is it a fossil fuel? While these are relatively recent developments, we are certainly and absolutely moving towards renewables simply because it takes away some of that carbon risk. And with our commitments to go to net 0 by 2050, we need to have a clear pathway for how to decarbonize our portfolio. So decarbonization and power source is sort of the second consideration.

第二個自然而然出現的問題是，當您能夠獲得價格合理的電源時，電源是什麼？它是可再生能源還是化石燃料？雖然這些都是相對較新的發展，但我們肯定而且絕對會轉向可再生能源，僅僅是因為它消除了一些碳風險。我們承諾到 2050 年實現淨零排放，我們需要為如何使我們的投資組合脫碳制定明確的途徑。因此，脫碳和電源是第二個考慮因素。

The other piece though, and perhaps this is the one that affects the U.S. more, is the technology itself. And so when you look at some of the newer smelters that we happen to be operating, and Ma'aden is a great example of what is our most recent investment, Fjardaál as well, when you compare it with some of the idled facilities that we have in the U.S., and you can look at Intalco in the Pacific Northwest or Wenatchee, the fact is the technologies really don't compare. They tend to be significantly more -- less efficient and much more requiring of hands-on labor and difficult jobs to do and very difficult jobs to actually find people that want to work there and that can be there long enough to really become very, very good, very proficient operators.

另一部分，也許這是對美國影響更大的部分，是技術本身。因此，當您查看我們碰巧經營的一些較新的冶煉廠時，Ma'aden 是我們最近投資的一個很好的例子，Fjardaáal 也是如此，當您將它與我們的一些閒置設施進行比較時在美國有，你可以看看太平洋西北部的 Intalco 或韋納奇，事實是這些技術真的無法比較。他們往往效率更高——效率更低，需要更多的手工勞動和困難的工作，而且很難找到真正想在那里工作的人，而且可以在那里工作足夠長的時間，真正變得非常、非常很好，很熟練的操作員。

And so we look across all those different dimensions as we think about any kind of restart potential. Energy, very important, but then we have to look at the technologies and how that would then fit against all of our environmental goals.

因此，當我們考慮任何類型的重啟潛力時，我們會審視所有這些不同的維度。能源，非常重要，但我們必須研究這些技術，以及它如何符合我們所有的環境目標。

Thank you very much for that perspective. And unfortunately, I want to take it to -- for my second question to geopolitics for a second. If tensions increase between Russia and Ukraine, what could be implications for the global aluminum and alumina markets be? Thank you very much for your perspective on that.

非常感謝你的觀點。不幸的是，我想先談談地緣政治的第二個問題。如果俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的緊張局勢加劇，對全球鋁和氧化鋁市場有何影響？非常感謝您對此的看法。

My goodness, Lucas, that's a big question. I think the -- how I would limit my comments is to say that those types of tensions can have very broad impacts. They can have broad impacts on supply, and this very much depends on if there were to be some kind of progression of how are the different European countries, how are the different global countries going to react to that. And so you can -- because of where some of the supply comes from aluminum, that can very quickly impact the supply that's coming.

天哪，盧卡斯，這是個大問題。我認為——我如何限制我的評論是說這些類型的緊張局勢可能會產生非常廣泛的影響。它們可能對供應產生廣泛影響，這在很大程度上取決於不同歐洲國家是否會有某種進展，不同的全球國家將如何對此作出反應。所以你可以 - 因為一些供應來自鋁，這會很快影響即將到來的供應。

It also has an impact on the supply side because of the energy prices inside of Europe and because so much of that power and what happens in natural gas particularly is going to impact what's happening in Europe. We're already seeing this broad curtailment because where energy prices are today, imagine if the tensions increase, if you start to see less availability of natural gas, those prices could go up even further, and you could start to see even more of a supply impact happening in Europe and potentially elsewhere because of knock-on impacts.

由於歐洲內部的能源價格，它也對供應方產生影響，因為如此多的電力以及天然氣中發生的事情尤其會影響歐洲正在發生的事情。我們已經看到了這種廣泛的削減，因為今天的能源價格，想像一下如果緊張局勢加劇，如果你開始看到天然氣供應減少，這些價格可能會進一步上漲，你可能會開始看到更多由於連鎖影響，歐洲和其他地方可能發生供應影響。

And then just more generally, the potential for disruption, for conflict could, in the end, impact the demand that you're seeing as well. And this is more of an indirect impact but could be something that could be an outcome, again, really projecting forward and just thinking through what some of the risks could be.

然後更一般地說，潛在的破壞和衝突最終可能會影響你所看到的需求。這更多是間接影響，但可能是結果，再次，真正向前預測，只是考慮一些風險可能是什麼。

Our final question today comes from David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 David Gagliano。

I just have a couple of quick clarification questions at this point. I was wondering if you could just quantify the year-over-year EBITDA benefit in those value-add contracts for 2022. And if those flow through basically on a quarterly basis, prorated equally each quarter. Or does it change as the year progresses? That's my first question.

在這一點上，我只有幾個快速澄清的問題。我想知道你是否可以量化 2022 年這些增值合同中的 EBITDA 同比收益。如果這些收益基本上是按季度流動的，那麼每個季度按比例平均分配。還是隨著時間的推移而變化？這是我的第一個問題。

You can't quantify -- we haven't quantified the year-over-year yet, David, but I can give you an idea of the sequential quarter benefit. The sequential quarter benefits between the higher value-add premiums and the block pricing in the Alumina business that won't recur is around $75 million. And you can see that the pricing in alumina was around a $30 million negative in the fourth quarter. So that would put the value-add piece at around $40 million, $45 million on a sequential quarter basis, so significant.

你無法量化——我們還沒有量化同比增長，大衛，但我可以讓你了解季度的連續收益。較高的附加值溢價和不會再發生的氧化鋁業務的整體定價之間的連續季度收益約為 7500 萬美元。您可以看到，第四季度氧化鋁的定價約為 3000 萬美元。因此，這將使增值部分達到約 4000 萬美元，按季度計算為 4500 萬美元，非常重要。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just step back for a second. And I think I missed this, but can you speak a little bit more about the details behind that $325 million catch-up tax payment from prior years?

好的。這很有幫助。然後退後一秒。我想我錯過了這一點，但你能多談談前幾年 3.25 億美元的補稅背後的細節嗎？

Yes. It's very, very simple. You've been following us long enough to know that in the case of Australia, you typically pay tax -- cash taxes the following year based on earnings from the prior year. So out of that $320 million, approximately 35%, 40% of that is in Australia. The other piece of that is in Canada in that the earnings in the Canadian smelters grew significantly towards the end of last year, specifically in the fourth quarter. So that falls over into the first quarter. And then there's a piece of that in Europe for the exact same reason.

是的。這非常非常簡單。您已經關注我們足夠長的時間了，知道在澳大利亞的情況下，您通常會在下一年根據上一年的收入繳納稅款 - 現金稅。因此，在這 3.2 億美元中，大約 35%、40% 在澳大利亞。另一部分是在加拿大，加拿大冶煉廠的收入在去年底時顯著增長，特別是在第四季度。所以這屬於第一季度。出於完全相同的原因，在歐洲也有一部分。

So cash taxes in the smelting system typically have a little bit of a lag from when you make the earnings to when you actually pay the cash out. And given the fact that we made very strong earnings in the fourth quarter in both Canada and some of the European countries, we pay that out this year.

因此，冶煉系統中的現金稅從您賺取收入到您實際支付現金通常會有一點滯後。鑑於我們在第四季度在加拿大和一些歐洲國家都取得了非常強勁的收益，我們今年將支付這筆款項。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Roy Harvey for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給羅伊·哈維（Roy Harvey），以聽取任何結束語。

Thank you, Riley, and thank you to everyone who joined the call today. We always enjoy answering your questions, and of course, discussing Alcoa's performance and the road ahead for our company. I'd also like to thank all of our employees once again for their excellent performance in 2021. I look forward to talking to everyone again at our first quarter earnings call in April. In the meantime, please be safe, stay healthy and have a good evening. Thank you.

謝謝你，萊利，也感謝今天加入電話會議的每一個人。我們總是樂於回答您的問題，當然，也樂於討論美鋁的業績和我們公司的前進道路。我還要再次感謝我們所有員工在 2021 年的出色表現。我期待在 4 月的第一季度財報電話會議上再次與大家交談。在此期間，請注意安全，保持健康，並祝您度過一個愉快的夜晚。謝謝你。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。