美國鋁公司 (AA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation and conference call.

下午好，歡迎來到美鋁公司 2024 年第三季財報和電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Louis Langlois, Senior Vice President of Treasury and Capital Markets.

現在我想將會議交給財資和資本市場資深副總裁 Louis Langlois。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you and good day, everyone.

謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。

I'm joined today by William Oplinger, Alcoa Corporation's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天，美國鋁業公司總裁兼執行長威廉·奧普林格 (William Oplinger) 也加入了我的行列。執行副總裁兼財務長莫莉‧比爾曼 (Molly Beerman)。

We'll be taking your questions after comments by Bill and Molly.

我們將在比爾和莫莉發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種假設和警告的影響。

Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.

可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素已包含在今天的簡報和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation.

此外，我們也在本簡報中納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。

For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the Appendix to today's presentation.

對於歷史非 GAAP 財務指標，可在今天簡報的附錄中找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

We have not presented quantitative reconciliation of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures for reasons noted in this slide.

由於本投影片中所述的原因，我們尚未對某些前瞻性非公認會計原則財務指標進行定量調節。

Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.

我們今天討論中提及的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA。

Finally, as previously announced, the earnings press release and slide presentation are available on our website.

最後，如同先前所宣布的，收益新聞稿和幻燈片簡報可在我們的網站上取得。

Now I'd like to turn over the call to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Louis, and welcome, everyone, to our third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

謝謝路易斯，歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Alcoa had a strong third quarter.

美鋁第三季表現強勁。

We maintained our fast pace of execution on our strategic priorities while progressing operational excellence with safety, stability, and continuous improvement.

我們保持快速執行策略重點，同時透過安全、穩定和持續改善實現卓越營運。

Underlying the strength of our performance are positive market trends in both the near and long term.

我們業績強勁的基礎是近期和長期積極的市場趨勢。

Let's start with safety.

讓我們從安全開始。

First and foremost, we had no fatal or serious injuries in the third quarter.

首先也是最重要的是，第三季我們沒有出現致命或重傷。

I firmly believe that a strong safety culture supports operational excellence.

我堅信強大的安全文化支持卓越營運。

We've continued our positive trend in both leading and lagging indicators by focusing on the behaviors that drive safety performance.

透過專注於推動安全績效的行為，我們持續保持領先指標和落後指標的正向趨勢。

Operational stability is evidenced by our aluminum production increasing for the eighth straight quarter, starting in the fourth quarter of 2022 with year-to-date production records for our Mosjøen and Canadian smelters.

從 2022 年第四季開始，我們的鋁產量連續第八個季度成長，我們的 Mosjäen 和加拿大冶煉廠創下了年初至今的產量記錄，證明了營運的穩定性。

In fact, the Mosjøen smelter in Norway achieved its fourth consecutive quarterly production record.

事實上，挪威的 Mosjäen 冶煉廠連續第四個季度產量創下紀錄。

We also steadily improved stability at the IMR smelter in Brazil, currently operating at nearly 80% capacity.

我們也穩步提高了巴西 IMR 冶煉廠的穩定性，目前產能利用率接近 80%。

We're working through the approval process for the next major Australian mine regions by our North Holyoake with the Western Australia Environmental Protection Agency and the Australian federal bilateral assessment process.

我們正在與西澳大利亞環境保護局一起完成北霍利奧克對澳洲下一個主要礦區的批准程序以及澳洲聯邦雙邊評估程序。

Additionally, we have continued to deliver on our strategic actions during the quarter.

此外，我們在本季繼續實施我們的策略行動。

We completed the acquisition of Alumina Limited on August 1, and we are already realizing benefits from this transaction on several fronts.

我們於 8 月 1 日完成了對 Alumina Limited 的收購，我們已經在多個方面從此次交易中獲益。

The acquisition resulted in increased economic exposure to the aluminum market, which is currently experiencing the highest pricing since 2018.

此次收購增加了鋁市場的經濟風險，目前正經歷 2018 年以來的最高定價。

The transaction was accretive to third quarter results, with the elimination of net income attributable to noncontrolling interest after the closing date.

該交易增加了第三季業績，並在交割日後消除了歸屬於非控制權益的淨利潤。

Alcoa also benefited from the absence of related cash distributions.

美國鋁業公司也受惠於相關現金分配的缺失。

The consolidation of the tax structure of the two companies will result in cash tax savings of approximately $100 million over the next 12 to 18 months.

兩家公司稅務架構的整合將在未來 12 至 18 個月內節省約 1 億美元的現金稅。

The added flexibility in our financial decision making enabled us to move quicker on the sale of our 25.1% stake in the Ma'aden joint ventures, which we expect to close in the first half of 2025.

我們的財務決策更加靈活，使我們能夠更快地出售 Ma'aden 合資企業 25.1% 的股份，我們預計該合資企業將於 2025 年上半年完成。

The Ma'aden transaction is consistent with our ongoing strategy to optimize and simplify our current portfolio and business.

Ma'aden 交易符合我們優化和簡化當前投資組合和業務的持續策略。

It highlights significant value for non-core assets.

它凸顯了非核心資產的巨大價值。

Additionally, the sale of the JV interest allows Alcoa to avoid any future capital calls for their growth.

此外，出售合資企業權益使美鋁能夠避免未來成長所需的任何資本需求。

The transaction also provides us with enhanced financial visibility and flexibility.

該交易還增強了我們的財務可見性和靈活性。

With Ma'aden's publicly traded shares, our shareholders will be able to see the changing value this investment represents on our balance sheet.

透過 Ma'aden 的公開交易股票，我們的股東將能夠看到這項投資在我們的資產負債表上所代表的價值變化。

If needed to volatility, we may explore alternatives to hedge the value of our investment within the parameters of our contractual lock-up periods.

如果需要波動，我們可以探索替代方案，在合約鎖定期的範圍內對沖我們的投資價值。

Now I'll turn it over to Molly to take us through the financials.

現在我將把它交給莫莉，讓她帶我們了解財務狀況。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，比爾。

Revenue was flat sequentially at $2.9 billion.

營收與上一季持平，為 29 億美元。

In the alumina segment, third-party revenue increased 9% on higher average realized third-party price, partially offset by lower shipments.

在氧化鋁領域，由於第三方平均實現價格較高，第三方收入成長了 9%，但部分被出貨量下降所抵銷。

In the aluminum segment, third-party revenue decreased 5%, primarily due to lower shipments.

在鋁業，第三方收入下降 5%，主要是由於出貨量下降。

Third-quarter net income attributable to Alcoa was $90 million versus the prior quarter of $20 million, with earnings per common share improving by $0.27 to $0.38 per share.

第三季歸屬於美鋁的淨利為 9,000 萬美元，而上一季為 2,000 萬美元，每股普通股收益提高了 0.27 美元，達到每股 0.38 美元。

On an adjusted basis, the net earnings attributable to Alcoa was $135 million, or $0.57 per share.

調整後，美國鋁業淨利為 1.35 億美元，即每股 0.57 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA increased $130 million to $455 million.

調整後 EBITDA 增加 1.3 億美元，達到 4.55 億美元。

Let's look at the key drivers of EBITDA.

讓我們看看 EBITDA 的主要驅動因素。

The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA increase was primarily due to higher average realized third-party prices for alumina, improved energy and raw material costs, and lower other costs, only partially offset by lower metal prices.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 成長主要是由於氧化鋁第三方平均實現價格上漲、能源和原材料成本改善以及其他成本下降，但僅部分被金屬價格下跌所抵消。

The alumina segment increased $181 million, primarily as higher alumina prices more than offset higher production costs, raw material, energy and other costs.

氧化鋁業務成長了 1.81 億美元，主要是因為較高的氧化鋁價格足以抵消較高的生產成本、原材料、能源和其他成本。

The aluminum segment decreased $53 million, primarily due to higher alumina costs, lower metal prices, decreased shipments, and only partially offset by raw material energy and production cost improvements outside the segments.

鋁部門減少了 5,300 萬美元，主要是由於氧化鋁成本上升、金屬價格下降、出貨量減少，並且僅被該部門之外的原材料能源和生產成本改善所部分抵消。

Other corporate costs decreased.

其他企業成本下降。

Intersegment eliminations were unfavorable in the quarter, which was expected as the higher average alumina price requires more inventory profit elimination.

本季的部門間抵銷不利，這是預期的，因為平均氧化鋁價格較高，需要更多的庫存利潤來抵銷。

Let's look at cash movements within the third quarter on the next slide.

讓我們在下一張投影片上看看第三季的現金變動。

Year to date through September, capital expenditures and working capital changes continue to be our largest uses of cash.

今年迄今為止，截至 9 月份，資本支出和營運資金變化仍然是我們最大的現金用途。

Within the third quarter, working capital change, accounts receivable came down, and lower aluminum sales prices outweighed the higher alumina sales price impact.

第三季度，營運資金變動、應收帳款下降，鋁銷售價格下降抵銷了氧化鋁銷售價格上漲的影響。

However, inventories and both segments rose primarily due to timing of shipments and alumina.

然而，庫存和兩個部門的增加主要是由於發貨時間和氧化鋁的原因。

Accounts payable was lower due to timing of payments and impacts from the Kwinana curtailment.

由於付款時間和奎納納限電的影響，應付帳款較低。

Overall, this resulted in an increase in working capital compared to the second quarter.

總體而言，這導致營運資本較第二季度增加。

Third-quarter cash flows included approximately $85 million and restructuring payments primarily related to the Kwinana curtailment.

第三季現金流包括約 8,500 萬美元和主要與奎納納削減相關的重組付款。

We continue to progress our profitability improvement programs.

我們持續推進獲利能力改善計劃。

We've taken actions to deliver approximately $525 million of the $645 million savings target as of the end of the third quarter.

截至第三季末，我們已採取行動實現 6.45 億美元的節省目標中的約 5.25 億美元。

Overall, the improvements are apparent in the year-to-date year-over-year bridge by program or location.

總體而言，按項目或地點劃分，今年迄今為止的同比橋樑的改進是顯而易見的。

During the third quarter, we added $175 million to the second quarter's year-to-date progress of $350 million.

在第三季度，我們在第二季度迄今 3.5 億美元的進展基礎上又增加了 1.75 億美元。

Through September 30, the company overachieved at $310 million target on raw materials at approximately $355 million in savings, and we expect to expand those savings in the fourth quarter.

截至 9 月 30 日，該公司超額實現了 3.1 億美元的原物料目標，節省了約 3.55 億美元，我們預計第四季將擴大這些節省。

Within our productivity and competitiveness program through September 30, we implemented actions contributing to approximately $45 million of savings and expect to deliver the $100 million run rate target by the end of the first quarter of 2025.

在截至 9 月 30 日的生產力和競爭力計劃中，我們實施了節省約 4500 萬美元的行動，並預計在 2025 年第一季末實現 1 億美元的運行率目標。

We have also progressed our portfolio improvement.

我們也取得了投資組合的改進。

To date, Warrick has achieved $45 million of its $60 million target.

迄今為止，Warrick 已實現 6,000 萬美元目標中的 4,500 萬美元。

We are still awaiting further clarification from the US Treasury on the inclusion of direct materials and Section 45X of the IRA program, which we estimate could be worth approximately $30 million.

我們仍在等待美國財政部就直接材料和 IRA 計劃第 45X 條的納入作出進一步澄清，我們估計該計劃的價值約為 3000 萬美元。

The Alumar smelter restart has achieved approximately $60 million of its $75 million target and is currently operating at nearly 80% capacity.

Alumar 冶煉廠重啟已實現 7,500 萬美元目標中的約 6,000 萬美元，目前產能利用率接近 80%。

The Kwinana curtailment has been slow to deliver savings due to high transition and holding costs, but we are still targeting $70 million in improvement on a run rate basis by the end of 2025.

由於過渡和持有成本較高，奎納納棄電專案在節省成本方面進展緩慢，但我們的目標仍然是到 2025 年底，按運行率改善 7,000 萬美元。

Moving on to other key financial metrics.

繼續討論其他關鍵財務指標。

The year-to-date return on equity turned positive to 0.6%.

年初至今股本回報率轉正至 0.6%。

Days working capital increased 4 days to 45 days sequentially, primarily due to an increase in inventory days on timing of shipments.

營運資金天數比上一季增加 4 天至 45 天，主要是因為出貨時庫存天數增加。

Our third-quarter dividend added $26 million to the stockholder capital returns, including newly issued shares for the acquisition of Alumina Limited, free cash flow less debt, non-controlling interest distributions was nearly neutral for the quarter, resulting in a cash balance of $1.3 billion.

我們的第三季股利為股東資本回報增加了 2,600 萬美元，包括為收購 Alumina Limited 而新發行的股票、自由現金流減去債務、本季非控股權益分配幾乎為中性，現金餘額為 1.3 美元十億。

As we look ahead to 2025, delevering and repositioning debt to the jurisdictions where cash is needed will be a priority for us.

展望 2025 年，去槓桿化並將債務重新配置到需要現金的司法管轄區將是我們的首要任務。

Turning to the outlook for the fourth quarter, our full-year outlook has several adjustments.

談到第四季的展望，我們對全年的展望有一些調整。

We are increasing the outlook for alumina shipments to 12.9 million to 13.1 million tons.

我們將氧化鋁出貨量預期上調至 1,290 萬噸至 1,310 萬噸。

That is an increase of approximately 200,000 tons.

即增加約20萬噸。

The production outlook for alumina remains the same as most of the shipping increase is related to trading tons where there is low margin.

氧化鋁的產量前景保持不變，因為大部分運輸增加與利潤率較低的貿易噸數有關。

While we expect transformation expense to improve $10 million to $70 million, we also expect other corporate expense to increase $20 million to $160 million.

雖然我們預計轉型費用將增加 1,000 萬美元至 7,000 萬美元，但我們也預計其他公司費用將增加 2,000 萬美元至 1.6 億美元。

Depreciation expense is changing from $675 million to approximately $655 million, primarily due to changes in capital project completion date.

折舊費用從 6.75 億美元變為約 6.55 億美元，主要是由於資本項目完成日期的變化。

Return-seeking capital is changing from $110 million to approximately $135 million as we continue to consider several return-seeking projects with attractive rates of return, primarily related to production creep projects and additional value-add product capability.

隨著我們繼續考慮幾個具有有吸引力回報率的尋求回報項目，這些項目主要與生產蠕變項目和額外的增值產品能力相關，尋求回報的資本正在從 1.1 億美元變為約 1.35 億美元。

Environmental and ARO payments are improving from $295 million to approximately $265 million.

環境和 ARO 付款從 2.95 億美元增加到約 2.65 億美元。

Regarding sequential changes for the fourth quarter, in the alumina segment, we expect favorable impacts of approximately $30 million from higher shipments and lower production costs.

關於第四季氧化鋁領域的連續變化，我們預計出貨量增加和生產成本降低將產生約 3,000 萬美元的有利影響。

In the aluminum segment, we expect performance to be flat, maintaining the strong performance from the third quarter.

在鋁業，我們預期業績將持平，維持第三季的強勁表現。

While the higher price of alumina will increase overall Alcoa adjusted EBITDA, alumina costs and the aluminum segment is expected to be unfavorable by $80 million.

雖然氧化鋁價格上漲將增加美鋁調整後的 EBITDA 整體水平，但氧化鋁成本和鋁部門預計將損失 8,000 萬美元。

Beyond the standard sensitivity provided for intersegment profit elimination, we expect an additional $30 million of expense in the fourth quarter due to the higher profit retained in inventory related to changes in production costs and volumes.

除了為部門間利潤消除提供的標準敏感度之外，我們預計第四季度將額外支出 3,000 萬美元，因為與生產成本和產量變化相關的庫存保留利潤較高。

Below EBITDA, we expect other expenses to increase approach approximately $20 million related to equity losses in Ma'aden and an equity contribution to LSS.

在 EBITDA 之下，我們預計與 Ma'aden 股權損失和 LSS 股權出資相關的其他費用將增加約 2000 萬美元。

Based on last week's pricing, we expect fourth-quarter operational tax expense to approximate $120 million to $130 million.

根據上週的定價，我們預計第四季營業稅支出約為 1.2 億至 1.3 億美元。

As the first full quarter since completing the Alumina Limited acquisition, net income attributable to noncontrolling interest will be zero.

這是自完成 Alumina Limited 收購以來的第一個完整季度，歸屬於非控股權益的淨利潤將為零。

Now I'll turn it back to Bill.

現在我會把它轉回給比爾。

Thanks, Molly.

謝謝，莫莉。

Let's start with an update on the markets.

讓我們從市場的最新情況開始。

The alumina price increased further in the third quarter to the highest since 2018 as supply disruptions continued in a tight market.

由於市場供應緊張，氧化鋁價格在第三季進一步上漲，達到 2018 年以來的最高水準。

So far this year, alumina buyers have faced force majeure in Queensland, Australia related to gas supply; force majeure in Jamaica after hurricane impacts and the curtailment of our Kwinana refinery in Australia.

今年到目前為止，澳洲昆士蘭州的氧化鋁買家面臨著與天然氣供應相關的不可抗力；颶風影響後牙買加遭遇不可抗力，澳洲奎納納煉油廠也被迫停產。

Recent events in India have also raised questions of whether there could be even further disruptions this year, but no impacts have been confirmed there yet.

印度最近發生的事件也引發了人們的疑問，今年是否會出現進一步的干擾，但尚未證實有影響。

Demand remained strong from continued smelter production growth and relatively low alumina inventory levels at smelters, which is also contributing to the tightness in the market.

由於冶煉廠產量持續成長以及冶煉廠氧化鋁庫存水準相對較低，需求依然強勁，這也導致了市場緊張。

Meanwhile, in the bauxite market, we have seen tightness in China due to safety and environmental inspections in Northern China, along with continued depletion of ore reserves.

同時，在鋁土礦市場上，由於華北地區的安全和環保檢查以及礦石儲量的持續枯竭，我們看到中國的鋁土礦供應緊張。

As a result, seaborne bauxite imports there continued to grow this year.

因此，今年該國海運鋁土礦進口量持續成長。

Looking ahead to the aluminum market for next year.

展望明年鋁市場。

For the market to come back into balance, both the resolution of the recent disruptions and the ramp-up of scheduled projects in Indonesia and India will be needed.

為了使市場恢復平衡，既需要解決最近的干擾問題，也需要增加印尼和印度的預定項目。

In aluminum, global demand is at record levels.

全球鋁需求量創歷史新高。

Specifically in North America and Europe, the packaging segment is recovering.

特別是在北美和歐洲，包裝領域正在復甦。

The transportation market overall has been steady with some slowing of growth within the automotive sector.

交通運輸市場整體保持穩定，其中汽車產業的成長放緩。

For building and construction, it has been a challenging year, but rate cuts in Europe and in the US are likely to provide some support for a recovery in the future.

對於建築業來說，這是充滿挑戰的一年，但歐洲和美國的降息可能會為未來的復甦提供一些支持。

Global aluminum supply is growing, but with limited new projects in the pipeline.

全球鋁供應正在成長，但正在籌建的新項目有限。

China is approaching its 45-million metric ton production capacity cap, making any significant net supply growth from China unlikely, and meeting supply growth instead will have to come from outside of China.

中國正在接近其4500萬噸的產能上限，這使得中國不太可能出現任何顯著的淨供應增長，而滿足供應增長則必須來自中國以外的地區。

In addition, China announced that it's now including aluminum in its national emissions trading scheme, which sets national carbon pricing.

此外，中國也宣布將鋁納入國家排放交易計劃，該計劃負責制定國家碳定價。

While we don't expect to see immediate impacts from this development, it does send a message that is likely that the Chinese primary aluminum industry, which makes up over half of global primary aluminum production, will be subject to carbon emissions pricing, increasing costs there in the future.

雖然我們預計這一發展不會立即產生影響，但它確實傳達了一個訊息，即佔全球原鋁產量一半以上的中國原鋁產業可能將受到碳排放定價的影響，從而增加成本未來在那裡。

In summary, we believe the market environment remains positive for alumina and aluminum.

總而言之，我們認為氧化鋁和鋁的市場環境仍然樂觀。

Alcoa is well positioned to benefit from being one of the world's largest bauxite and alumina producers and from offering a diversified portfolio of aluminum products that are used across several end markets that are experiencing growth.

作為全球最大的鋁土礦和氧化鋁生產商之一，以及提供用於多個正在成長的終端市場的多元化鋁產品組合，美鋁處於有利地位，能夠從中受益。

The benefits of our significant alumina market exposure are starting to become more apparent, not only in this pricing environment, but in relation to the additional economic exposure gained through the Alumina Limited acquisition.

我們在氧化鋁市場的巨大優勢開始變得更加明顯，不僅在這種定價環境中，而且與收購 Alumina Limited 獲得的額外經濟風險有關。

Prior to the acquisition of Alumina Limited, Alcoa had economic exposure through third-party sales to only 2 million metric tons of production.

在收購 Alumina Limited 之前，美鋁公司透過第三方銷售僅獲得 200 萬噸產量的經濟風險。

We had 60% of the approximately 10 million metric tons produced in total but used 4 million metric tons of that to supply our aluminum smelters.

我們生產了總產量約 1000 萬噸的 60%，但其中 400 萬噸用於供應我們的鋁冶煉廠。

Post acquisition, Alcoa has economic exposure to approximately 6 million metric tons of production available for third-party sales.

收購後，美鋁公司擁有約 600 萬噸可用於第三方銷售的產品的經濟風險。

With our first quartile bauxite and alumina portfolio, we're in avery strong position to take advantage of the near- and long-term market fundamentals as well as longer-term strategic opportunities like our recently announced extension of the alumina supply contract with Alba.

憑藉我們第一個四分之一的鋁土礦和氧化鋁產品組合，我們處於非常有利的地位，可以利用近期和長期市場基本面以及長期戰略機遇，例如我們最近宣布延長與Alba 的氧化鋁供應合約.

The 10-year agreement provides up to 16.5 million metric tons of smelter-grade alumina to Alba.

這項為期 10 年的協議將向 Alba 提供多達 1,650 萬噸冶煉級氧化鋁。

Our operations in Australia are well positioned to serve Alba.

我們在澳洲的業務非常適合為阿爾巴服務。

This contract also strengthens our position as the portable the premier global alumina supplier and enhances our ability to manage our long alumina position.

該合約也鞏固了我們作為全球首要氧化鋁供應商的地位，並增強了我們管理長期氧化鋁部位的能力。

Turning to our Spain operations.

轉向我們的西班牙業務。

Earlier this year, we announced a dual-path approach to address the challenging economics of the complex.

今年早些時候，我們宣布了一種雙路徑方法來解決該綜合體具有挑戰性的經濟問題。

The launch of a sale process while also working to identify solutions for the long-term viability of the operations.

啟動銷售流程，同時努力尋找實現業務長期生存能力的解決方案。

Following a robust sale process that included 60 potential investors, no viable offer emerged.

經過包括 60 位潛在投資者在內的穩健銷售流程後，沒有出現任何可行的報價。

However, through the sale process, one party emerged, the IGNIS Group, which was known to Alcoa through prior dealings in Spain's energy market.

然而，在出售過程中，出現了一方，即 IGNIS 集團，美國鋁業公司透過先前在西班牙能源市場的交易而了解該集團。

Together, Alcoa and IGNIS developed an alternative through which both organizations could leverage their individual expertise, our capabilities in managing global aluminum operations and IGNIS in leveraging their energy market expertise to create value via market access and energy management services.

美鋁公司和IGNIS 共同開發了一種替代方案，透過該方案，兩個組織都可以利用各自的專業知識、我們管理全球鋁業務的能力，而IGNIS 則可以利用其能源市場專業知識，透過市場準入和能源管理服務創造價值。

We are working toward entering into a strategic cooperation agreement.

我們正在努力達成戰略合作協議。

Under the terms of the agreement, IGNIS would become a 25% owner in our Spanish operations.

根據協議條款，IGNIS 將成為我們西班牙業務 25% 的所有者。

The owners would make initial investments of EUR100 million, EUR75 million from Alcoa and EUR25 million from IGNIS.

業主將初始投資 1 億歐元，其中 Alcoa 投資 7,500 萬歐元，IGNIS 投資 2,500 萬歐元。

Additionally, if required, up to EUR 100 million would be funded by Alcoa, with a priority position in future cash returns.

此外，如果需要，美鋁將提供高達 1 億歐元的資金，並在未來的現金回報中享有優先地位。

If additional funding is required, it must be agreed by both partners and will be shared 75% by Alcoa and 25% by IGNIS.

如果需要額外的資金，必須得到雙方的同意，並將由美國鋁業公司（Alcoa）分擔75%，由IGNIS分擔25%。

However, this proposed partnership is conditional upon delivery of key items by national and local governments, works council, and employees.

然而，這項擬議的合作夥伴關係的條件是國家和地方政府、勞資委員會和員工交付關鍵項目。

These include materially higher CO2 compensation, permitting of power generation projects, support and approval for the residue storage area capital project, and flexibility within the smelter viability agreement such as the ability to use restricted cash to meet operating needs until tentative power is developed and provided under the signed PPAs.

其中包括大幅提高二氧化碳補償、發電項目許可、殘渣儲存區資本項目的支持和批准，以及冶煉廠可行性協議的靈活性，例如在開發和提供臨時電力之前使用限制性現金來滿足運營需求的能力根據簽署的購電協議。

We are now focusing on making the partnership a success with the critical support from key stakeholders.

我們現在致力於在主要利害關係人的關鍵支持下使合作夥伴關係取得成功。

Our last strategic update is related to our Australian mine approvals.

我們最後的策略更新與我們的澳洲礦場審批有關。

We are currently progressing approvals along the timeline shown for the next major Western Australian mine regions, Myara North and Holyoake through the WA EPA and Federal bilateral assessment process.

目前，我們正在按照西澳州下一個主要礦區 Myara North 和 Holyoake 所示的時間表，透過西澳環保局和聯邦雙邊評估流程進行審批。

It's an extensive process that started in 2020, and we are focused on receiving ministerial approval by early 2026.

這是一個從 2020 年開始的廣泛流程，我們的重點是在 2026 年初獲得部長級批准。

We anticipate mining in the new regions will commence no earlier than 2027.

我們預計新地區的採礦將不早於 2027 年開始。

Until then, we expect bauxite quality will remain similar to recent grades.

在此之前，我們預期鋁土礦品質將保持與近期等級相似。

The WA EPA recently said its indicative timeline for the next key step in the process, the public comment period for early 2025.

西澳環保局最近公佈了該流程下一個關鍵步驟的指示性時間表，即 2025 年初的公眾意見徵詢期。

We are committed to working with the WA EPA and other stakeholders to achieve the indicative timeline.

我們致力於與西澳環保局和其他利益相關者合作，以實現指示性時間表。

Alcoa has been and continues to engage with a range of stakeholders regarding our current and future operations.

美鋁公司一直並將繼續就我們目前和未來的營運與一系列利益相關者進行接觸。

We have community engagement forms in place that provide an opportunity for two-way discussion between Alcoa and host community members.

我們制定了社區參與表格，為美鋁和東道社區成員之間的雙向討論提供了機會。

This includes the recently established forum for the dwelling community, which is near the future Holyoake mine region.

這包括最近為住宅社區建立的論壇，該論壇靠近未來的霍利奧克礦區。

As we plan for future operations, we are assessing what conditions may be applied for their approval process by examining our operations closely as well as by learning from the experience of our peers operating in the region.

當我們規劃未來的營運時，我們正在透過仔細檢查我們的營運以及學習在該地區運作的同行的經驗來評估哪些條件可以適用於他們的審批流程。

In 2023, we accepted and incorporated new conditions addressing key environmental factors that include enhanced protections for drinking water and increased mining distances from reservoirs, avoidance of key biodiversity areas, and accelerating forest rehabilitation.

2023年，我們接受並納入了解決關鍵環境因素的新條件，包括加強飲用水保護、增加採礦距離水庫的距離、避開關鍵的生物多樣性區域以及加速森林恢復。

By incorporating these conditions into our current operations, we believe they provide strong foundation for what may be recommended in the assessment.

透過將這些條件納入我們目前的營運中，我們相信它們為評估中可能建議的內容提供了堅實的基礎。

Throughout all of these engagements, Alcoa's goal is to be recognized as a responsible miner and maintain the right to mine for long-term operations.

在所有這些活動中，美鋁公司的目標是被公認為負責任的礦工，並維護長期營運的採礦權。

We're focused on modernizing the approvals framework for bauxite mining in WA and securing certainty for our operations and all stakeholders.

我們致力於實現西澳鋁土礦開採審批框架的現代化，並確保我們的營運和所有利害關係人的確定性。

As a company, we are proud of the progress we made in the third quarter on multiple fronts.

作為一家公司，我們對第三季在多個方面取得的進展感到自豪。

Looking ahead, we will maintain a fast pace of execution on strategic initiatives, improved productivity and stability across our operations, and capitalize on positive market fundamentals to deliver value to our stockholders.

展望未來，我們將維持策略性舉措的快速執行，提高整個營運的生產力和穩定性，並利用正面的市場基本面為股東創造價值。

It is shaping up to be an action-packed year.

今年將是充滿活力的一年。

Operator, let's start the question-and-answer session.

接線員，我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）Timna Tanners，Wolfe Research。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

And congratulations on all the progress.

祝賀所有的進展。

I got so many questions.

我有很多問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I guess I'll just ask about Spain.

我想我只想問一下西班牙。

So just trying to understand, have you got approvals or initial response from either the union or the government?

所以想了解一下，您是否得到了工會或政府的批准或初步回應？

And assumedly, would you ramp up production to optimize profitability?

假設您會提高產量以優化獲利能力嗎？

What do they bring to the table?

他們帶來了什麼？

What's your level of profitability at spot?

您的現貨獲利水準是多少？

Yeah.

是的。

Let me just address a few of those.

讓我談談其中的一些。

What the partnership -- first of all, we're trying to achieve a partnership.

什麼是夥伴關係—首先，我們正在努力建立夥伴關係。

We haven't finalized the partnership yet, but our efforts on achieving the partnership are meant to bring IGNIS's knowledge and expertise in the energy markets combined with our knowledge and expertise around aluminum.

我們尚未最終確定合作夥伴關係，但我們為實現合作夥伴關係所做的努力旨在將 IGNIS 在能源市場的知識和專業知識與我們在鋁方面的知識和專業知識相結合。

And so around your question, specifically, if have we talked to the stakeholders, the reason for the announcement today is to launch that discussion with the stakeholders and to make sure that they understand that we need cooperations and viable.

因此，圍繞著你的問題，具體來說，如果我們與利益相關者進行了交談，那麼今天宣布的原因是與利益相關者展開討論，並確保他們理解我們需要合作和可行。

We specifically in the announcement, talked about a number of things, CO2 compensation, permitting of power projects the access to some of the restricted cash that will allow us to chart a path forward that makes that plant viable.

我們在公告中特別討論了一些事情，二氧化碳補償，允許電力項目獲得一些受限制的現金，這將使我們能夠制定一條使該工廠可行的前進道路。

But it's conditional -- the partnership is conditional on getting that cooperation.

但這是有條件的──夥伴關係的條件是獲得合作。

And so that's what we'll be working on over the next couple of months.

這就是我們未來幾個月的工作內容。

Okay.

好的。

So I know I asked a lot of questions, but I guess it would be helpful to get a flavor on your confidence maybe or on their approval and what the plan B might be, I suppose, if you don't achieve those.

所以我知道我問了很多問題，但我想了解你的信心可能會有所幫助，或者了解他們的批准以及我認為如果你沒有實現這些目標的話，B 計劃可能是什麼。

And if you could comment on the plans to run at more full utilization, that would be great too.

如果您能對更充分利用運行的計劃發表評論，那就太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

And if I step back and just address how we got here, you know we were going down a dual-path process where we were trying to sell the asset and at the same time, trying to make it a viable asset.

如果我退後一步，談談我們是如何走到這一步的，你知道我們正在走一個雙路徑流程，我們試圖出售資產，同時試圖使其成為可行的資產。

We went out to 60 potential buyers for the asset, and there was not a viable offer for the entirety of the asset.

我們為該資產聯繫了 60 位潛在買家，但沒有對整個資產提出可行的報價。

In that process, IGNIS immersed as a potential partner for us to essentially combine their expertise and our expertise.

在此過程中，IGNIS 作為我們的潛在合作夥伴，從​​本質上將他們的專業知識與我們的專業知識結合起來。

In the partnership, they will be making a EUR25 million contribution to the site.

透過合作，他們將向該網站捐款 2500 萬歐元。

They will end up owning 25% of the site, and we would hope to be able to work with the stakeholders so that we can get the support that we need.

他們最終將擁有該網站 25% 的股份，我們希望能夠與利益相關者合作，以便獲得所需的支持。

As far as my confidence, we're confident we have made it this far.

就我的信心而言，我們有信心我們已經走到了這一步。

We had very good interaction with IGNIS, and we're confident that we can get the partnership.

我們與 IGNIS 進行了很好的互動，我們有信心獲得合作關係。

Now the question will be sitting down and making sure that the stakeholders understand the need for the support that we're looking for to ensure the solvency and the viability of the site.

現在的問題是坐下來，確保利害關係人了解我們正在尋求的支持的必要性，以確保網站的償付能力和生存能力。

Chris LaFemina, Jefferies.

克里斯·拉費米納，杰弗里斯。

Just a follow-up question on the San Ciprián situation.

這是關於聖西普里安局勢的後續問題。

So if my understanding is correct, you're committing up to EUR175 million of additional investment in the business.

因此，如果我的理解正確的話，您將承諾對該業務進行高達 1.75 億歐元的額外投資。

But is this sort of like it was before, where that's the limit as to how far you'll go?

但這是否像以前一樣，你能走多遠的極限在哪裡？

Or is it possible that you will fund significantly more than that?

或者您有可能提供比這更多的資金？

And I guess what I'm really getting at is what is the endgame.

我想我真正想要的是結局是什麼。

I mean, obviously, if it's a viable asset, well, then it could have a place within Alcoa.

我的意思是，顯然，如果它是一項可行的資產，那麼它可以在美國鋁業公司中佔有一席之地。

But what if we go back to kind of lower price environment, how does that play out for you?

但是，如果我們回到較低的價格環境，這對您有何影響？

What are the options there?

那裡有哪些選擇？

The end game here is to try to make it a viable asset.

這裡的最終目標是嘗試使其成為可行的資產。

And the only way we get to that end game is that we have support from the unions and the government.

我們達到最終目標的唯一方法是得到工會和政府的支持。

When you consider that EUR175 million that Alcoa would be putting in, we will be looking for government support of the CO2 compensation of approximately USD80 million.

考慮到美國鋁業將投入 1.75 億歐元，我們將尋求政府對約 8,000 萬美元二氧化碳補償的支持。

In addition to that, there is a restricted cash in the site, which is about USD 85 million, and we'd be looking to access that to fund the operations.

除此之外，該網站還有大約 8,500 萬美元的限制性現金，我們希望利用這些現金來為營運提供資金。

So that's at least two of the things we need to get in order to get the survivable operation.

因此，為了獲得可生存的操作，我們至少需要獲得兩件事。

As we look forward, things can change in Europe.

展望未來，歐洲的情況可能會改變。

Clearly, you've got CBM coming in.

顯然，CBM 已經登場。

Energy markets are changing fairly quickly.

能源市場變化相當快速。

So what we would be looking to do is to try to get that support in order to make those investments and have a site that's viable.

因此，我們想要做的就是嘗試獲得支持，以便進行這些投資並擁有一個可行的網站。

Anything you want to add, Molly?

莫莉，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Just on the $80 million of the CO2 compensation, that actually relates to the past.

僅就8000萬美元的二氧化碳補償而言，這實際上與過去有關。

We did not receive our compensation for 2018 through 2021 when we were running the smelter.

當我們經營冶煉廠時，我們沒有收到 2018 年至 2021 年的補償。

And so we've had claims against the government.

因此我們對政府提出了索賠。

We'd like to have those listed and have access to that $80 million since we ran and paid all of the employees.

我們希望將這些名單列出來，並有權動用這 8000 萬美元，因為我們負責營運並向所有員工支付工資。

And just to make it clear to tie it all together, the $175 million, we would be using the $85 million towards that contribution of $175 million.

為了明確起見，將 1.75 億美元全部連結在一起，我們將使用 8,500 萬美元來支付 1.75 億美元的捐款。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And sorry, second, Molly, just on the profitability improvement program.

抱歉，第二，莫莉，關於盈利能力改善計劃。

Did you say that you're tracking ahead of some of the cost reductions there?

您是否說過您正在追蹤那裡的一些成本削減？

And does that imply that, that $645 million target might ultimately be conservative?

這是否意味著 6.45 億美元的目標最終可能是保守的？

Or are we kind of sticking with that as being the most likely outcome?

或者我們是否堅持認為這是最有可能的結果？

Chris, we are ahead on the raw materials, and that was a year-over-year target.

克里斯，我們在原材料方面處於領先地位，這是同比目標。

So we're going to try to close off each piece of the program as we accomplish it.

因此，我們將在完成該計劃時嘗試關閉該計劃的每個部分。

We are working very diligently now on setting a really aggressive 2025 plan.

我們現在正在非常努力地制定一個非常積極的 2025 年計劃。

We recognize that any of these special programs take a lot of time and energy.

我們認識到任何這些特殊計劃都需要花費大量的時間和精力。

Alcoans are used to working toward an aggressive plan where we have every bit of savings and productivity identified by person with delivery.

Alcoans 習慣於制定積極的計劃，在該計劃中，我們的每一點節省和生產力都由交付人員決定。

So we will work on this program and close it off as we accomplish each piece.

因此，我們將致力於這個計劃，並在完成每個部分後關閉它。

And then we're going to move forward into 2025 with a really aggressive budget.

然後我們將以非常激進的預算進入 2025 年。

And if I could tag on to that comment, Molly.

如果我能附上這個評論的話，莫莉。

We're trying to change the culture so that our company folks across the entirety of the company, both within the plants and in our resource units, are focused very highly on competitiveness.

我們正在努力改變文化，以便整個公司的員工，無論是在工廠還是在我們的資源部門，都可以高度關注競爭力。

So you've heard us talk about advancing competitiveness and some of the targets that we've had.

您已經聽過我們談論提高競爭力以及我們已經設定的一些目標。

We're trying to make sure that this is not a one-off program that this becomes part of the culture where each plant, each resource unit is focused on increasing the overall competitiveness of the plant in comparison to plants around the world.

我們正在努力確保這不是一次性計劃，而是成為每個工廠、每個資源單位都專注於提高工廠與世界各地工廠相比的整體競爭力的文化的一部分。

Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

盧卡斯‧派普斯 (Lucas Pipes)，B. 萊利證券 (Riley Securities)。

Thank you very much, operator.

非常感謝您，接線生。

And I want to add my congratulations on the progress across many fronts.

我想對許多方面取得的進展表示祝賀。

I have one more question on San Cipriánn.

我還有一個關於聖西普里安的問題。

Bill, in the past, the power component was always a challenge there.

比爾，過去，電源部件一直是那裡的挑戰。

And I wondered if you could maybe elaborate to what extent the potential partnership would alleviate that previous choke point.

我想知道您是否可以詳細說明潛在的合作夥伴關係將在多大程度上緩解先前的瓶頸。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Lucas.

謝謝，盧卡斯。

That's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

And the reason why it's a great question is because power in Spain is still a problem.

之所以這是一個很大的問題，是因為西班牙的權力仍然是一個問題。

When you compare power in Spain versus Germany and France, Spain is fundamentally uncompetitive.

當你比較西班牙與德國和法國的實力時，西班牙基本上沒有競爭力。

And so that's where we need to ensure that we get the highest level of CO2 compensation available to us and any assistance we can get in areas like transmission costs.

因此，這就是我們需要確保獲得最高水準的二氧化碳補償以及我們在輸電成本等領域可以獲得的任何援助的地方。

When you look at smelter in France, for instance, they get the maximum CO2 credit, they get the maximum assistance and transmission costs, which allows a smelter in France of all places to be competitive.

例如，當你看看法國的冶煉廠時，他們獲得了最大的二氧化碳信用額，他們獲得了最大的援助和傳輸成本，這使得法國所有地方的冶煉廠都具有競爭力。

We need the same type of thing in Spain.

我們在西班牙需要同類型的東西。

And as far as what IGNIS can help us with is really understanding underlying power markets trying to help us with some of those issues like CO2 compensation, transmission costs and try to get us a competitive power situation, at least in the near term, while Europe works through some of the things like CBAM and the energy situation there.

就 IGNIS 可以幫助我們而言，真正了解潛在的電力市場，試圖幫助我們解決一些問題，例如二氧化碳補償、輸電成本，並嘗試讓我們至少在短期內獲得具有競爭力的電力狀況，而歐洲其工作原理包括CBAM 和那裡的能源狀況等。

Thank you very much for that color.

非常感謝你的那種顏色。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Bill, I'd like to ask you a bit about the alumina markets.

比爾，我想問你一些關於氧化鋁市場的情況。

Obviously, very strong pricing dynamics, lots of disruptions around the world.

顯然，定價動態非常強勁，世界各地出現了許多幹擾。

And I wondered if you could maybe go through some of the discrete pressure points on the supply side and share your opinion on how quickly they might be resolved.

我想知道您是否可以分析一下供應方面的一些離散壓力點，並分享您對解決這些問題的速度的看法。

And maybe also separate from that, where else you might see constraints on alumina medium term?

也許除此之外，您還可能在哪些方面看到氧化鋁中期受到的限制？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Alumina is acutely tight currently.

目前氧化鋁嚴重緊張。

I think on our chart, we showed something like $650.

我認為在我們的圖表上，我們顯示了大約 650 美元。

I think alumina prices reached close to $700 today, and there is very little liquidity in the market for shipping alumina currently.

我認為今天氧化鋁價格接近 700 美元，目前市場上用於運輸氧化鋁的流動性非常少。

I'm sure that if I go through the list of disruptions, I'll probably miss one.

我確信，如果我瀏覽幹擾清單，我可能會錯過其中一個。

So let me do it off the top of my head.

所以讓我憑空想像一下吧。

We curtail the Kwinana facility earlier in the year.

我們在今年稍早削減了奎納納工廠的規模。

There was good strategic rationale for curtailing it with high cost, high complexity refinery, and we made that happen safely in the first half of the year.

削減高成本、高複雜性煉油廠的數量有很好的戰略依據，我們在今年上半年安全地實現了這一目標。

Subsequent to that, one of our competitors in Northern Australia had a pipeline issue.

隨後，我們在澳洲北部的一位競爭對手遇到了管道問題。

If you look at their numbers year over year, they are recovering from that but are still not back at 100% capacity.

如果你逐年查看他們的數字，他們正在從中恢復，但仍未恢復到 100% 的產能。

One of our competitors in Jamaica had a storm roll through.

我們在牙買加的一位競爭對手經歷了一場風暴。

They first said there was no impact, subsequently declared force majeure.

他們先是說沒有影響，後來又宣布不可抗力。

And so there was an impact there.

所以那裡產生了影響。

I believe that's been largely remedy.

我相信這在很大程度上是一種補救措施。

And just this week, you probably heard some discussion, probably saw a Bloomberg article about disruption around bauxite in Guinea.

就在本週，您可能聽到了一些討論，可能看到了彭博社關於幾內亞鋁土礦中斷的文章。

We don't know anything more about that than what you're reading in the press, but that puts further stress on the market.

除了您在媒體上讀到的內容外，我們對此一無所知，但這給市場帶來了進一步的壓力。

As we look forward to 2025, our view would have been 2025 would come into balance at some point on alumina.

當我們展望 2025 年時，我們的觀點是 2025 年氧化鋁將在某個時候達到平衡。

However, in order to come into balance, a couple of things have to occur.

然而，為了達到平衡，必須發生一些事情。

Those disruptions need to be cleared up and not recur.

這些幹擾需要被清除，並且不能再發生。

And secondly, we're going to need to see growth in Indonesia and India.

其次，我們需要看到印尼和印度的成長。

And I guess speaking of India, that was the one I missed.

我想說到印度，那是我所懷念的。

You probably all saw at one of the competitors, a runoff water storage pond that collapsed that may have had an impact on their production.

你們可能都在其中一位競爭對手那裡看到了一個倒塌的徑流蓄水池，這可能對他們的生產產生了影響。

So in order for the aluminum market to come back in the balance, we would need to see growth in those two areas, and our view is that alumina will stay tight through the first half of next year.

因此，為了使鋁市場恢復平衡，我們需要看到這兩個領域的成長，我們的觀點是，明年上半年氧化鋁將保持緊張。

Bill, I really appreciate all the color to you and the team continued business look, thank you.

比爾，我真的很感謝你和團隊持續的業務發展，謝謝你。

Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

比爾彼得森，摩根大通。

Nice job on the quarterly execution.

季度執行情況良好。

I want to come back to San Ciprián and just maybe a little bit finer point.

我想回到聖西普蘭，也許只是想了解一些細節。

So I guess where alumina today, how does this inform your refinery restart?

所以我猜今天的氧化鋁在哪裡，這對你們的煉油廠重啟有何影響？

And I guess how does this tie in maybe potential negotiations with the unions and local governments?

我想這如何與工會和地方政府的潛在談判聯繫起來？

I guess on the government side, what are you looking for?

我想在政府方面，你在尋找什麼？

Is this about the commitments to the renewable projects, the competitive PPAs?

這是關於對再生項目、有競爭力的購電協議的承諾嗎？

Just any sort of color you can provide on those.

您可以在上面提供任何顏色。

Let me answer the second part first, and that'll give me time to forget the first part.

讓我先回答第二部分，這樣我才有時間忘記第一部分。

The second part, essentially, what we're looking for, we laid out in the press release, and that is CO2 compensation.

第二部分本質上是我們正在尋找的，我們在新聞稿中列出了，那就是二氧化碳補償。

As Molly said, for past production, that's about $80 million.

正如莫莉所說，過去的製作費用約為 8000 萬美元。

And we are looking for a permit for the uplift of the RDA at San Ciprián.

我們正在尋求在聖西普蘭提升 RDA 的許可。

We need to uplift the RDA to 104 meters, and so we're looking to get that.

我們需要將 RDA 提升至 104 米，因此我們正在努力實現這一目標。

On top of that, from the unions, we would like to be able to access the restricted cash, the cash that's there to fund the operating expenses as we go forward.

最重要的是，我們希望能夠從工會獲得有限的現金，這些現金可以為我們前進的營運費用提供資金。

Is there anything that I'm missing?

我有什麼遺漏的嗎？

Just within the government discussions, we're also talking about the permits.

就在政府討論中，我們也在談論許可證。

We do not have all the development permits or I should say our -- the suppliers under our PPAs don't have all the permits to develop.

我們沒有所有的開發許可證，或者我應該說我們的——我們的購電協議下的供應商沒有所有的開發許可證。

Good point.

好點。

And as far as our thinking around ramping up the refinery, we really need to get the permits to do that uplift to the 104 meters in San Ciprián.

就我們對擴建煉油廠的想法而言，我們確實需要獲得許可才能將聖西普蘭的煉油廠提升至 104 公尺。

And we'll be tracking those permits as they come in.

我們將在這些許可證進來時對其進行追蹤。

And then once we have that, we'll make the determination then on whether to increase production at San Ciprián.

一旦我們有了這個，我們將決定是否增加聖西普里安的產量。

Thanks for that, Bill, Molly.

謝謝你，比爾，莫莉。

And maybe the next one for Molly.

也許莫莉的下一個。

On the outlined, I guess, $120 million in the remaining savings over the next, I guess, 12 to 15 months, and it sounds like you're going to come up with a 25% plan.

我猜想，在接下來的 12 到 15 個月內，剩餘的儲蓄將達到 1.2 億美元，聽起來你會提出一個 25% 的計畫。

But can you elaborate on where the remaining savings are coming from as well as the cadence of the savings through the balance of next year?

但您能否詳細說明剩餘的節省來自何處以及明年餘額的節省節奏？

So I mentioned that on raw materials, we've already overachieved and we'll actually add a little bit more in the fourth quarter there.

所以我提到，在原料方面，我們已經取得了超額的成績，我們實際上會在第四季增加一點。

On our productivity and competitiveness program, we are through $45 million of actions, and that's to get the $100 million run rate, and that's by the end of the first quarter of '25.

在我們的生產力和競爭力計劃中，我們已經採取了 4500 萬美元的行動，這是為了在 25 年第一季末達到 1 億美元的運行率。

Warrick, we're going after $60 million.

沃里克，我們要爭取 6000 萬美元。

We've achieved about $45 million through the third quarter.

截至第三季度，我們已實現約 4,500 萬美元的營收。

We have zero on the IRA waiting that decision.

我們的愛爾蘭共和軍（IRA）等待這項決定的人數為零。

And then on the Alumar smelter, we're through $60 million of $75 million, and that will go into next year to get the rest of that.

然後，在 Alumar 冶煉廠上，我們已經完成了 7500 萬美元中的 6000 萬美元，剩下的資金將在明年投入使用。

And then Kwinana is the one where we are, I think, operating probably a bit behind target.

我認為奎納納是我們的營運可能有點落後於目標的地方。

We've only captured $20 million of the

我們只捕獲了其中的 2000 萬美元

[$70 million].

[7000萬美元]。

We're keeping the target.

我們正在保持目標。

We will go after that, but that will come more towards the end of 2025.

我們會在那之後實現，但會在 2025 年底左右實現。

Michael Dudas, Vertical Research.

邁克爾·杜達斯，垂直研究。

Hey, Bill, back to the Alumina market, how do you see a balance on the supply side you talked about for '25?

嘿，比爾，回到氧化鋁市場，您如何看待您談到的 25 年供應方面的平衡？

What about demand?

需求呢？

I would think it's near current prices.

我認為它接近當前價格。

And given where aluminum is, how do you see that for some of the higher-cost smelters?

考慮到鋁的產值，您如何看待一些成本較高的冶煉廠的情況？

Will there be some decisions on that front that could certainly change things a little bit and maybe even on the converse side tighten the aluminum market further?

在這方面是否會做出一些決定，肯定會稍微改變一些情況，甚至可能在相反的方面進一步收緊鋁市場？

So as we're seeing demand today, demand actually has -- on the aluminum side, has been pretty strong.

因此，正如我們今天看到的需求一樣，鋁方面的需求實際上相當強勁。

You've seen some restarts in Europe that continue to drive the demand.

您已經看到歐洲的一些重啟繼續推動了需求。

As far as whether alumina prices will drive demand cuts in aluminum, it can really only speak for us.

至於氧化鋁價格是否會帶動鋁需求減少，這只能代表我們自己。

And we would be looking at all of our smelters and try to determine whether they can continue to be profitable at these levels and how long those higher alumina costs will stick around.

我們將關注所有的冶煉廠，並嘗試確定它們是否能夠在這些水平上繼續盈利，以及較高的氧化鋁成本將持續多久。

So we have a pretty regular cadence of review of the profitability of our marginal smelters, and we go through that on a regular basis and we'll take action if need be.

因此，我們對邊際冶煉廠的獲利能力進行了相當定期的審查，我們定期進行審查，如果需要，我們將採取行動。

Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Hi, thank you for taking my questions.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Maybe starting on given the environment is very healthy right now, can you remind us how you're thinking about your capital allocation, especially potentially returning more to shareholders?

也許從現在的環境非常健康開始，您能否提醒我們您如何考慮您的資本配置，特別是可能為股東帶來更多回報？

Katja, our primary goal for early 2025 is to delever as well as to reposition some of our debt to the jurisdictions that need cash.

Katja，我們 2025 年初的主要目標是去槓桿化，並將部分債務重新配置給需要現金的司法管轄區。

Our adjusted net debt has gone a bit higher at $2.2 billion.

我們調整後的淨債務略高，達到 22 億美元。

We added about $385 million this quarter with the completion of the Alumina Limited acquisition.

隨著 Alumina Limited 收購的完成，我們本季增加了約 3.85 億美元。

So that will be our priority as we approach early '25.

因此，當我們接近 25 年初時，這將是我們的首要任務。

Katja, if you look back over the last five years, I think one of the greatest ways for us to release equity value is to pay down debt.

Katja，如果你回顧過去五年，我認為我們釋放股權價值的最佳方法之一就是償還債務。

We're a bigger company today than we were a year ago.

今天我們的公司比一年前更大。

We're a more profitable company today than we were a year ago after the Alumina Limited transaction.

在 Alumina Limited 交易之後，我們今天的公司比一年前盈利能力更高。

But I still believe that bringing down our debt levels is the best way in the near term to release equity value.

但我仍然相信，降低債務水準是近期釋放股權價值的最佳方式。

And what would be the level you're looking to reach or you would be comfortable at?

您希望達到或感到滿意的水平是什麼？

We're looking at several options, Katja, but we're not ready to guide on that yet.

Katja，我們正在考慮幾個選擇，但我們還沒有準備好對此提供指導。

Okay.

好的。

And if I may, just one more.

如果可以的話，再講一個。

Given the strength in the alumina market and the fact that there seems to be some durability expected in the prices.

鑑於氧化鋁市場的強勁以及預計價格似乎具有一定穩定性的事實。

Are there any opportunities where you could besides in increased production or debottleneck on your side?

除了增加產量或消除瓶頸之外，您還有其他機會嗎？

Short answer is largely no.

簡短的回答基本上是否定的。

I mean we are working on debottlenecking in Brazil, but that's taking some time.

我的意思是，我們正在努力消除巴西的瓶頸，但這需要一些時間。

We constantly look at opportunities to creep our sites and to try to generate additional tons, but really no large outs that we could execute upon quickly to take advantage of the higher prices.

我們不斷尋找機會擴大我們的網站並嘗試增加產量，但實際上沒有大的出局可以讓我們快速執行以利用更高的價格。

John Tumazos, John Tumazos Very Independent Research.

約翰‧圖馬佐斯，約翰‧圖馬佐斯非常獨立的研究。

Bill, I was playing with my Excel spreadsheet, and I plugged in $575 for the fourth quarter on Alumina price and a $10 lower unit cost and $625 million popped out for EBITDA for the Alumina segment.

比爾，我正在玩我的 Excel 電子表格，我在第四季度的氧化鋁價格上輸入了 575 美元，單位成本降低了 10 美元，氧化鋁部門的 EBITDA 為 6.25 億美元。

And if something might not happen, maybe the aluminum metal segment with the transfer price would fall towards $100 million.

如果不出意外的話，鋁金屬板塊的轉讓價格可能會跌至1億美元。

So is it in the ballpark that we might see $175 million gain in EBITDA in the fourth quarter, if the attorneys will let you answer that question?

那麼，如果律師要你回答這個問題，我們第四季的 EBITDA 成長是否有可能達到 1.75 億美元？

Hey, John, I'll take a swing of this and Molly is much better at this.

嘿，約翰，我會嘗試一下，莫莉在這方面做得更好。

But essentially, start with our third quarter, take our sensitivities and apply our sensitivities -- put in your estimate a price that you think will last during the fourth quarter.

但本質上，從我們的第三季度開始，採取我們的敏感性並運用我們的敏感性——將您認為將在第四季度持續的價格放入您的估計中。

And then we give guidance around the strength of the fourth quarter on some qualitative items.

然後我們就第四季度的一些定性項目的實力提供指導。

So what did we say qualitatively?

那我們定性地說了什麼？

We said aluminum will be better by about $30 million in the fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季鋁將上漲約 3000 萬美元。

Really happy about that.

對此真的很高興。

I would like to see alumina get even better in 2025, but it's a very good start.

我希望看到氧化鋁在 2025 年變得更好，但這是一個非常好的開始。

Aluminum is relatively flat on a fourth quarter to third-quarter basis.

鋁第四季至第三季相對持平。

And then I think Molly guided to a little bit of an impact of change in intercompany profit elimination.

然後我認為莫莉引導了公司間獲利消除變化的一點影響。

With the rapid run-up of prices that we're seeing, sometimes our sensitivities don't always work perfectly.

隨著我們所看到的價格的快速上漲，有時我們的敏感度並不總是完美的。

And then when we see that, we try to make sure that you can build it into your model.

然後，當我們看到這一點時，我們會盡力確保您可以將其建置到您的模型中。

So once you've done all that, it spits out an EBITDA level, and we'll let you make a determination whether you think it's realistic or not.

因此，一旦您完成所有這些操作，它就會顯示 EBITDA 水平，我們將讓您做出決定，無論您認為它是否現實。

Bill, can I ask a second one?

比爾，我可以問第二個嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Actually, a little bit tongue in cheek and a little bit serious.

事實上，有點開玩笑，又有點嚴肅。

I've sat in three-hour geology seminars about the Nubian Shield or the Red Sea Basin, where the Saudi Arabian Peninsula is considered a very hot area for gold and copper geology.

我參加過努比亞地盾或紅海盆地的三個小時的地質研討會，沙烏地阿拉伯半島被認為是金銅地質的一個非常熱門的地區。

Ivanhoe is exploring for copper; Barrick for gold there.

艾芬豪正在勘探銅礦；巴里克在那裡尋找黃金。

Should we view the $950 million of modern equity -- and the majority of their profits are phosphate, a long-term play on the phosphate market, and gold and copper exploration in the Nubian Shield?

我們是否應該考慮價值 9.5 億美元的現代股權——其大部分利潤來自磷酸鹽、磷酸鹽市場的長期投資以及努比亞地盾的金礦和銅礦勘探？

Or do you think it's something that you might sell as soon as the holding period expires?

或者您認為持有期滿後您可能會立即出售它？

That's a great question, John.

這是一個很好的問題，約翰。

And let me just take the opportunity to give you a little bit of background.

讓我藉此機會向您介紹一些背景知識。

We announced the transaction that we were selling the 25.1% for $1.1 billion.

我們宣布以 11 億美元出售 25.1% 的交易。

The consideration is $150 million cash and $950 million of Ma'aden stock.

代價為 1.5 億美元現金和 9.5 億美元 Ma'aden 股票。

That stock will be locked up on a lock-up period that's a three-year, four-year to five-year staggered lock-up period.

該股的鎖定期為三年、四年至五年的交錯鎖定期。

Since the time of that announcement was the run-up in the modern stock, that transaction goes from being worth $1.1 billion to over $1.3 billion.

由於該公告發佈時正值現代股票上漲，該交易的價值從 11 億美元增至超過 13 億美元。

So, so far, we're pretty happy, but it's early days.

所以，到目前為止，我們很高興，但現在還為時過早。

We did that transaction for two reasons.

我們進行這筆交易有兩個原因。

One, we wanted to simplify the organizational structure.

第一，我們想要簡化組織架構。

We did not think that the Street gave us much value for the ownership of the 25.1% and probably rightfully so.

我們認為華爾街並沒有為我們 25.1% 的所有權帶來多少價值，這也許是理所當然的。

And then secondly, we wanted to be able to crystallize and highlight that value on something that you can see on your screen on a daily basis to see how much we own there.

其次，我們希望能夠在您每天可以在螢幕上看到的東西上具體化並突出這種價值，看看我們在那裡擁有多少。

As far as whether we will sell those shares in years three, four, and five, we'll make that determination then.

至於我們是否會在第三年、第四年和第五年出售這些股票，我們將在那時做出決定。

In the meantime, we have a great relationship with Ma'aden.

同時，我們與 Ma'aden 有著良好的關係。

I personally have a great relationship with many folks in the Kingdom, and we're super supportive of them being successful on phosphate, copper, gold, and aluminum.

我個人與王國的許多人都有很好的關係，我們非常支持他們在磷酸鹽、銅、金和鋁方面取得成功。

Whenever your production for metal is reported going forward, should we add 228,000 tons for 2026 for the Spanish restart and then deduct 175,000 tons because you sold the Ma'aden piece?

每當您報告未來的金屬產量時，我們是否應該為 2026 年西班牙重啟而增加 228,000 噸，然後因為您出售了 Ma'aden 部件而扣除 175,000 噸？

John, I would wait until we get our partnership structure in place, and we'll be able to give more guidance on what the restart ramp-up will look like.

約翰，我會等到我們建立起我們的合作夥伴結構，然後我們將能夠就重新啟動的情況提供更多指導。

In terms of Ma'aden, I have the offtake margin handy, but I don't have the volume of tons.

就 Ma'aden 而言，我有手頭上的承購利潤，但我沒有噸數。

So we have been taking offtake, and that will stop with the completion of the transaction, that is not a huge margin to us.

因此，我們一直在進行承購，隨著交易的完成，這將停止，這對我們來說並不是一個巨大的利潤。

It's about $6 million per quarter.

每季約 600 萬美元。

But again, when we give our guidance in January on the 2025 shipments and production, we will adjust at that point during movement.

但同樣，當我們在 1 月給出 2025 年出貨量和產量的指導時，我們將在這一點上進行調整。

Do you count it as production or not?

你算不算生產？

Just shipments, I believe, yeah, shipments.

只是發貨，我相信，是的，發貨。

Yeah.

是的。

We don't count it as production.

我們不把它算作生產。

We count on shipments because we have an offtake with the joint venture that then gets sold onwards.

我們依賴出貨，因為我們與合資企業有承購權，然後再出售。

So it's in our shipments number but not our production number.

所以它在我們的發貨編號中，但不在我們的生產編號中。

Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

卡洛斯·德阿爾巴，摩根士丹利。

On San Ciprián, is there a new timetable or a timetable for you to complete the discussions with the government and the union in order for you to determine whether you go ahead with this agreement that you are trying to close?

在聖西普蘭，是否有一個新的時間表或一個時間表讓您完成與政府和工會的討論，以便您確定是否繼續執行您試圖達成的這項協議？

Just would like to get a little bit of sense of time as to how much longer can this negotiation take before you're ready to really turn the page or continue operating the Ciprián asset.

只是想了解一下在您準備好真正翻開新頁面或繼續運營 Ciprián 資產之前，這次談判需要多長時間。

Not a significant change to the timetable that we've lined out before.

我們之前製定的時間表沒有重大變化。

The entities will run out of cash, we believe somewhere around the end of the year.

我們相信，這些實體將在今年年底左右耗盡現金。

Potentially that could go a little bit further into 2025 depending on what market conditions are.

根據市場狀況，這種情況可能會持續到 2025 年。

So we're essentially pushing as hard as we can, as quickly as we can, to ensure that we get the right level of cooperation from the various stakeholders and get the partnership consummated.

因此，我們本質上正在盡我們所能、盡快地推動，以確保我們從各個利害關係人那裡獲得適當水平的合作並完善夥伴關係。

Okay.

好的。

And just if the companies run out of cash, at that point in time, will you basically file for bankruptcy or close shop?

如果公司現金用完，到那時，你基本上會申請破產或關門嗎？

Is that what will happen?

會發生這樣的事嗎？

We're really focused on trying to make sure that that doesn't happen, Carlos.

我們真的致力於確保這種情況不會發生，卡洛斯。

But essentially, the entity is technically insolvent at that point.

但從本質上講，該實體此時在技術上已經無力償債。

And so as we've said before, some hard decisions will have to be made.

因此，正如我們之前所說，必須做出一些艱難的決定。

What we're trying to do is avoid that.

我們試圖做的就是避免這種情況。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And just on CapEx, it's the second quarter in a row that CapEx goes up or return-seeking CapEx increases.

僅就資本支出而言，這是連續第二季資本支出上升或尋求回報的資本支出增加。

Any -- not huge amounts, but anyway, increases.

任何——不是很大的數量，但無論如何，都會增加。

Any details or any color as to how much incremental volumes or EBITDA can we expect from these additional projects?

關於我們可以從這些額外項目中獲得多少增量或 EBITDA，有任何細節或任何顏色嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Carlos, we don't have those figures handy.

卡洛斯，我們手邊沒有這些數字。

I don't think you'll find it to be notable though from this current set.

我不認為你會發現它在當前的集合中值得注意。

These are a series of smaller projects that we're approving now.

這些是我們現在正在批准的一系列較小的項目。

Lachlan Shaw, UBS.

拉克蘭·肖，瑞銀。

Just one question from me.

我只想問一個問題。

So just on WA and the mine approval process there.

就西澳和那裡的礦山審批流程而言。

I'm just interested, I suppose, how you think about that whole process and the scenarios potentially ahead of you given the experience of your peer there and the conditional approvals that sort of came through for them.

我想，我只是感興趣的是，考慮到你的同行的經驗以及他們獲得的有條件批准，你如何看待整個過程以及你可能面臨的場景。

I mean, how do you think about what those scenarios might look like in the context of the environmental authorities in Australia generally pushing for more stringent conditions.

我的意思是，在澳洲環境當局普遍推動更嚴格的條件的背景下，您如何看待這些情況可能會是什麼樣子。

Lachlan, thanks for the question.

拉克蘭，謝謝你的提問。

We're continuing to advance the mine approvals for both Myara North and Holyoake.

我們正在繼續推進 Myara North 和 Holyoake 的礦場審批。

That process started in 2020, and we're focused on receiving our approvals by early 2026.

該流程於 2020 年啟動，我們的重點是在 2026 年初獲得批准。

And we're anticipating that mining in the new regions will commence no earlier than 2027.

我們預計新地區的採礦將不早於 2027 年開始。

Recently, the WA EPA set the timeline for the next major step in the approval process, and that's the public comment period that will occur in the first quarter of 2025, the same time we continue to work on our annual approvals from the WA state government for our rolling five-year mine plan.

最近，西澳州環保局製定了審批流程下一個主要步驟的時間表，即將於 2025 年第一季度進行的公眾評審期，同時我們將繼續處理西澳州政府的年度審批工作我們的五年滾動採礦計劃。

So we continue to make good progress.

所以我們繼續取得良好進展。

We're very committed to making sure that we work -- I can't say that we're collaboratively with the WA EPA and the other stakeholders.

我們非常致力於確保我們的工作——我不能說我們正在與西澳環保局和其他利益相關者合作。

So we think we're making really good progress there.

所以我們認為我們在這方面取得了非常好的進展。

As far as your question around our neighbors in WA, South32, we have looked at some of their conditions, and we acknowledge that there are some similarities between the activities between the two companies.

至於你提出的關於我們在西澳的鄰居 South32 的問題，我們已經研究了他們的一些條件，並且我們承認兩家公司之間的活動有一些相似之處。

But we continue to work through our review of their process.

但我們會繼續審查他們的流程。

And we think that we will learn a lot through that process.

我們認為透過這個過程我們會學到很多東西。

And we think we're actually in pretty good shape.

我們認為我們的狀況實際上非常好。

So I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that, Molly.

所以我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的，莫莉。

I'd just add that, remember, last year, when we were going through the approval process for our annual mine plan, we adopted a whole series of new mining requirements.

我想補充一點，請記住，去年，當我們進行年度採礦計劃的審批流程時，我們採用了一系列新的採礦要求。

So many of the conditions that you see being added to South32 now, we've already done that.

您現在看到的許多條件已添加到 South32，我們已經做到了。

So we did go through their whole list.

所以我們確實瀏覽了他們的整個清單。

We looked at them the majority we had either already built into our current mine plans or had them incorporated in our new mine plans and some of those that were different are simply because we're mining in different areas.

我們研究了它們中的大多數，我們要么已經將它們納入當前的採礦計劃，要么將它們納入我們新的採礦計劃中，其中一些不同只是因為我們在不同的地區採礦。

Some of the other South32, it's important to recognize that some of their cost increases are related to their carbon management.

對於其他一些 South32，重要的是要認識到它們的一些成本增加與其碳管理有關。

We are running natural gas, so we do not face the same kind of cost challenges.

我們使用天然氣，因此我們不會面臨相同的成本挑戰。

The safeguard mechanism that will be running in Australia is based on the industry standard.

澳洲將運作的保障機制是基於業界標準的。

And if you look at our Pinjarra refinery, for example, we're already at the industry best.

例如，如果您看看我們的平賈拉煉油廠，您會發現我們已經處於行業最佳水平。

So we have a different cost profile there as well.

所以我們在那裡也有不同的成本概況。

Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

蒂姆納坦納斯，沃爾夫研究。

I just wanted to follow up on the capital allocation line of questions because I know that Molly, in the prepared remarks, noted some ability to continue to pursue perhaps some value add or additional projects.

我只是想跟進資本分配方面的問題，因為我知道莫莉在準備好的演講中指出了繼續追求某些增值或額外項目的能力。

And just back to the envelope, higher alumina prices continuing these commodity prices.

回到包絡線，氧化鋁價格上漲繼續這些商品價格上漲。

Obviously, paying down debt is great use of cash, I get it.

顯然，償還債務是對現金的極大利用，我明白。

But is there anything else you can elaborate on regarding further opportunities if indeed you have greater cash and cash generation into next year?

但是，如果您明年確實有更多的現金和現金產生，您是否還可以詳細說明有關進一步的機會？

Timna, we will certainly look at excess cash, and we will put it through our capital allocation framework.

Timna，我們當然會關注多餘的現金，並將其納入我們的資本配置框架。

So we will look at returns to shareholders.

因此，我們將關注股東的回報。

We'll look at other growth opportunities, and we'll also look at additional portfolio actions.

我們將關注其他成長機會，我們也將關注其他投資組合行動。

But we will wait to see how the cash is coming in through the rest of this year and into early next year along with those delevering plans that I mentioned.

但我們將拭目以待，看看今年剩餘時間和明年初的現金以及我提到的去槓桿化計劃如何。

And it's important to remember that at the beginning of the year, we issued $750 million of debt.

重要的是要記住，今年年初，我們發行了 7.5 億美元的債務。

We also took on an additional roughly $350 million debt in the Alumina transaction.

我們還在 Alumina 交易中額外承擔了約 3.5 億美元的債務。

As I said earlier, we are a bigger company.

正如我之前所說，我們是一家更大的公司。

We should be a better company.

我們應該成為一家更好的公司。

But in the near term, we think there's a lot of equity value created by delevering.

但在短期內，我們認為去槓桿化會創造大量權益價值。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Oplinger for closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回由奧普林格先生致閉幕詞。

Thank you for joining our call.

感謝您加入我們的通話。

Molly and I look forward to sharing further progress when we speak again in January.

莫莉和我期待在一月份再次交談時分享進一步的進展。

That concludes our call.

我們的通話到此結束。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。