美國鋁公司 (AA) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation first-quarter 2025 earnings presentation and conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加美國鋁業公司 2025 年第一季財報和電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to send the conference over to Louis Langlois, Senior Vice President of Treasury and Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給財務和資本市場高級副總裁 Louis Langlois。請繼續。

Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by William Oplinger, Alcoa Corporation's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Molly Bierman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and Molly.

謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。今天與我一起出席的還有美國鋁業公司總裁兼執行長威廉‧奧普林格 (William Oplinger)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Molly Bierman。我們將在比爾和莫莉發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期有關的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種假設和警告的影響。今天的簡報和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中都包含了可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. We have not presented quantitative reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures for reasons noted on this slide. reference and our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.

此外，我們在本簡報中也納入了一些非 GAAP 財務指標。對於歷史非 GAAP 財務指標，可以在今天簡報的附錄中找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。由於本投影片中所述的原因，我們並未提供某些前瞻性非公認會計準則財務指標的定量對帳。我們今天所參考和討論的 EBITDA 指的是調整後的 EBITDA。

Finally, as previously announced, the earnings press release and slide presentation are available on our website.

最後，正如先前宣布的那樣，收益新聞稿和幻燈片演示可在我們的網站上查閱。

Now, I'd like to turn over the call to Bill.

現在，我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thanks, Louis, and welcome to our first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Alcoa had strong first quarter financial and production results. We maintained a fast pace of execution on our priorities despite economic uncertainty, while progressing operational excellence through safety, stability, and continuous improvement. Underlying the strength of our performance were positive market conditions.

謝謝，路易斯，歡迎參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。美國鋁業公司第一季的財務和生產業績表現強勁。儘管經濟情勢不確定，我們仍保持快速執行優先事項，同時透過安全、穩定和持續改善實現卓越營運。我們業績強勁的背後是積極的市場條件。

Let's start with safety. First and foremost, a strong safety culture supports operational excellence. We had no fatal or serious injuries in the first quarter, and we continued to improve our safety performance. Operational stability is shown by solid production, where the majority of our operations improve sequentially on a tons-per-day basis. We also continue to improve stability at the IMR smelter in Brazil, currently operating at approximately 91% capacity.

讓我們從安全開始。首先，強大的安全文化支持卓越的營運。第一季我們沒有發生任何致命或嚴重傷害事故，安全績效持續提升。穩健的生產體現了營運的穩定性，我們的大部分營運產量都在以每天噸數為單位逐年提高。我們也持續提高巴西 IMR 冶煉廠的穩定性，目前該冶煉廠的產能利用率約為 91%。

We completed a $1 billion debt offering in Australia, using most of the proceeds to repay existing debt. The new debt has extended the maturities at a lower after-tax interest expense than our previously outstanding debt.

我們在澳洲完成了 10 億美元的債務發行，大部分收益用於償還現有債務。新債務的期限延長了，稅後利息支出低於我們先前未償還的債務。

Lastly, we formed a joint venture with IGNIS EQT for our San Ciprián operations and are now resuming production at the smelter in accordance with the viability agreement.

最後，我們與 IGNIS EQT 成立了一家合資企業，負責聖西普里安的業務，目前正在根據可行性協議恢復冶煉廠的生產。

Now I'll turn it over to Molly to take us through the strong financial results.

現在我將讓 Molly 向我們介紹強勁的財務表現。

Thank you, Bill. Revenue was down 3% sequentially to $3.4 billion. In the aluminum segment, third-party revenue decreased 8% on lower average realized third-party price and lower shipments due to timing and decreased trading. In the aluminum segment, third-party revenue was flat due to an increase in the average realized third-party price, offset by lower shipments in the first quarter after strong sales in the fourth quarter of 2024.

謝謝你，比爾。營收季減 3% 至 34 億美元。在鋁領域，由於時間和交易減少導致平均實現的第三方價格較低以及出貨量減少，第三方收入下降了 8%。在鋁領域，第三方營收持平，原因是第三方平均實現價格上漲，但2024年第四季銷售強勁後第一季出貨量下降抵消了這一影響。

First-quarter net income attributable to Alcoa was $548 million versus the prior quarter of $202 million, with earnings per common share more than doubling to $2.07 per share. The sequential improvement reflects increased aluminum prices and lower intersegment profit elimination, partially offset by increased aluminum costs, and tariffs on our Canadian aluminum imported into the United States for US customers.

第一季歸屬於美國鋁業公司的淨收入為 5.48 億美元，而上一季為 2.02 億美元，每股普通股收益成長一倍多，達到每股 2.07 美元。這一連續改善反映了鋁價上漲和部門間利潤消除減少，但被鋁成本上漲以及美國客戶進口到美國的加拿大鋁的關稅部分抵消。

On an adjusted basis, net income attributable to Alcoa was $568 million, or $2.15 per share. Adjusted EBITDA increased $178 million to $855 million.

經調整後，美國鋁業公司的淨利潤為 5.68 億美元，即每股 2.15 美元。調整後的 EBITDA 增加 1.78 億美元，達到 8.55 億美元。

Let's look at the key drivers of EBITDA. First quarter adjusted EBITDA reflects higher aluminum prices and lower intersegment profit elimination, which more than offset lower alumina prices. Lower volume, increases in raw material and energy prices, and higher production costs were more than offset by improvements in price mix and other costs. Lower volume in the first quarter was expected after a strong fourth quarter shipping schedule, mainly alumina from our Australian refineries.

讓我們來看看 EBITDA 的關鍵驅動因素。第一季調整後的 EBITDA 反映了鋁價上漲和分部間利潤抵銷減少，足以抵消氧化鋁價格下跌的影響。產量下降、原材料和能源價格上漲以及生產成本上升等因素均被價格結構和其他成本的改善所抵消。由於第四季度的運輸計劃強勁，預計第一季的運輸量將有所下降，主要來自我們澳洲煉油廠的氧化鋁。

Other costs primarily relate to intersegment elimination. The Alumina segment adjusted EBITDA decreased $52 million primarily due to lower alumina prices, lower volume, and unfavorable currency impacts only partially offset by favorable production costs and other costs.

其他成本主要與分部間抵銷有關。氧化鋁部門調整後的 EBITDA 減少了 5,200 萬美元，主要原因是氧化鋁價格下跌、產量下降以及不利的貨幣影響，但有利的生產成本和其他成本僅部分抵消了這一影響。

The Aluminum segment adjusted EBITDA decreased $60 million with higher metal prices and favorable currency more than offset by higher alumina costs and higher production, energy, raw material, and other costs. Included in other costs are approximately $20 million for US Section 232 tariffs of 25% on aluminum imports from Canada, which became effective on March 12.

鋁業部門調整後的 EBITDA 減少了 6,000 萬美元，原因是金屬價格上漲和貨幣利好，但氧化鋁成本和生產、能源、原材料及其他成本的增加抵消了這一影響。其他成本包括約 2,000 萬美元，用於支付 3 月 12 日生效的美國第 232 條對加拿大進口鋁徵收 25% 的關稅。

Outside the segments, other corporate costs decreased, and the intersegment elimination expense decreased as expected with significantly lower average alumina price requiring less inventory profit elimination.

分部之外，其他公司成本下降，分部間消除費用如預期下降，氧化鋁平均價格大幅下降，所需庫存利潤消除較少。

Moving on to cash flow activities for the first quarter. We ended the first quarter with cash of $1.2 billion. Strong EBITDA led to positive cash from operations in the first quarter, despite high consumption of cash for working capital build, which is typical in our first quarter periods. Working capital increased as inventories in both segments rose.

繼續討論第一季的現金流活動。第一季結束時，我們的現金為 12 億美元。儘管在第一季度，營運資本建設的現金消耗量較高（這在我們第一季很常見），但強勁的 EBITDA 仍使第一季的營運現金流為正。隨著兩個部門的庫存增加，營運資本也隨之增加。

In Alumina, on higher raw material price and volume, and an Aluminum on timing of raw material and aluminum shipments. Accounts payable decreased, following elevated alumina trading payables in the fourth quarter. In the first quarter, we progressed our objective to reposition debt and de-lever with the issuance of $1 billion of debt in Australia, and the tender of $890 million related to our outstanding 2027 and 2028 notes. It is our intention to continue to deliver with an initial focus on the remainder of the 2027 notes.

就氧化鋁而言，原材料價格和產量上漲，而鋁則受原材料和鋁裝運時間的影響。繼第四季氧化鋁貿易應付款項增加之後，應付帳款減少。在第一季度，我們透過在澳洲發行 10 億美元債券以及招標 8.9 億美元未償還的 2027 年和 2028 年票據，推進了重新定位債務和去槓桿的目標。我們打算繼續履行承諾，最初將重點放在 2027 年債券的剩餘部分。

Moving on to other key financial metrics. The year-to-date return on equity was positive at 39.1%. Days working capital increased 13 days sequentially to 47 days, the same level year over year, but elevated from our year-end 2024 level. Our first quarter dividend added $26 million to stockholder capital returns. We had positive free cash flow plus net non-controlling interest contributions for the quarter, which includes the EUR25 million contribution from IGNIS EQT related to the San Ciprián Joint Venture Formation. Proceeds from the debt issuance in Australia, less debt tendered, added $95 million to the ending cash balance of $1.2 billion.

繼續討論其他關鍵財務指標。今年迄今的股本回報率為正 39.1%。營運資本天數較上季增加 13 天，達到 47 天，與去年同期持平，但高於我們 2024 年底的水準。我們第一季的股利為股東資本回報增加了 2,600 萬美元。本季度，我們的自由現金流為正，加上淨非控股權益貢獻，其中包括 IGNIS EQT 與 San Ciprián 合資企業成立相關的 2,500 萬歐元貢獻。澳洲債務發行所得減去投標債務，使期末現金餘額增加了 9,500 萬美元，達到 12 億美元。

As we turn to the next slide, we would like to share an update on our capital allocation targets. Our overall capital allocation framework remains unchanged. It starts with maintaining a strong balance sheet throughout the cycle, and sufficiently funding our operations to sustain and improve them. The optimal capital structure for our company is reached when investment-grade leverage metrics are achieved, reducing our WAC, and creating value for our stockholders through a higher company valuation, lower cost of financing, and improved project viability. We want to maintain investment-grade leverage metrics throughout all business cycles, not only at the mid or top part of the cycle.

當我們翻到下一張投影片時，我們想分享有關我們的資本配置目標的最新情況。我們的整體資本配置架構維持不變。首先要在整個週期中保持強勁的資產負債表，並為我們的營運提供足夠的資金來維持和改善它們。當達到投資等級槓桿指標時，我們公司就達到了最佳資本結構，從而降低了我們的加權平均資本成本，並透過更高的公司估值、更低的融資成本和更好的專案可行性為我們的股東創造價值。我們希望在整個商業週期中保持投資等級槓桿指標，而不僅僅是在週期的中期或頂部。

Based on this, we first defined a target for adjusted debt, which includes pension and OPEB liability. This target is $2.1 billion to $2.5 billion. Then, considering our historical use rate of cash, we target a cash balance between $1 billion and $1.5 billion. Netting the cash with the adjusted debt results in our targeted range of adjusted net debt of $1 billion to $1.5 billion. We believe this range fits our profile and anticipated use of leverage as a company.

基於此，我們首先定義了調整債務的目標，其中包括退休金和OPEB負債。該目標為21億美元至25億美元。然後，考慮到我們的歷史現金使用率，我們的目標是現金餘額在 10 億美元到 15 億美元之間。將現金與調整後的債務相抵，我們的調整後淨債務目標範圍為 10 億美元至 15 億美元。我們相信這個範圍符合我們作為一家公司的形象和預期的槓桿使用。

I want to clarify that we are not committing to receiving and or maintaining investment-grade credit ratings. The credit ratings are assessed by the rating agencies. We want to maintain the flexibility to raise additional debt for strategic opportunities at any point in the cycle.

我想澄清的是，我們並不承諾獲得或維持投資等級信用評級。信用評等由評等機構評估。我們希望保持靈活性，以便在週期的任何階段為策略機會籌集額外債務。

Our adjusted net debt was $2.1 billion at the end of the first quarter. As we get closer to the $1 billion to $1.5 billion target, we will look at all of our capital allocation priorities including cash returns to stockholders in parallel to paying down debt.

第一季末，我們的調整後淨債務為 21 億美元。隨著我們越來越接近 10 億至 15 億美元的目標，我們將考慮所有資本配置優先事項，包括在償還債務的同時向股東提供現金回報。

Turning to the outlook, we have one adjustment to our full-year outlook. We are updating depreciation expense from $640 million to $620 million due primarily to favorable currency impacts. For the second quarter of 2025, in the Alumina segment, we expect to maintain the strong level of performance delivered in the first quarter.

談到展望，我們對全年展望進行了一次調整。我們將折舊費用從 6.4 億美元更新為 6.2 億美元，主要歸因於有利的貨幣影響。對於 2025 年第二季的氧化鋁部門，我們預計其業績將保持第一季的強勁水準。

In the Aluminum segment, we expect performance to be unfavorable by approximately $105 million due to US Section 232 tariff costs on imports of our Canadian aluminum, increasing approximately $90 million sequentially, as well as operating costs associated with the restart of the San Ciprián smelter of approximately $15 million. While the lower average price of alumina will decrease overall Alcoa-adjusted EBITDA, Alumina cost in the Aluminum segment is expected to be favorable by $165 million.

在鋁業部門，我們預計業績將不利約 1.05 億美元，原因是美國對加拿大鋁進口徵收第 232 條關稅，比上一季增加約 9,000 萬美元，以及與重啟聖西普里安冶煉廠相關的約 1,500 萬美元的營運成本。雖然氧化鋁平均價格下降將導緻美鋁調整後的整體 EBITDA 下降，但預計鋁業務的氧化鋁成本將上漲 1.65 億美元。

For intersegment eliminations with the current market volatility, we recommend that you use the low end of the sensitivity range in your model. Below EBITDA, within other expenses, equity investment losses are expected to increase by $10 million in the second quarter. The first quarter included favorable impacts of $20 million due to foreign currency gains, which may not recur.

對於具有當前市場波動的部門間消除，我們建議您使用模型中敏感度範圍的低端。在 EBITDA 以下，其他費用中，股權投​​資損失預計第二季將增加 1,000 萬美元。第一季因外匯收益而產生了 2000 萬美元的有利影響，但這種影響可能不會再次出現。

Based on last week's pricing, we expect second quarter operational tax to be a benefit of $50 million to $60 million, which includes timing and catch-up adjustments related to lower Alumina prices.

根據上週的定價，我們預計第二季的營業稅將帶來 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的收益，其中包括與氧化鋁價格下跌相關的時間和追趕調整。

In the appendix to the earnings material, you will see that our Midwest paid and Midwest unpaid premium sensitivities have been updated to reflect the expected trade flows as a result of tariff impacts. We also revised our regional premium distribution for your reference.

在收益資料的附錄中，您將看到我們中西部已付和中西部未付保費敏感度已更新，以反映關稅影響導致的預期貿易流量。我們也修改了區域保費分佈，供您參考。

Updates to the Midwest premium do not include the cost component of the tariff. There is a new column on the sensitivity slide for the tariff cost impact, which will appear in the other bar of our EBITDA bridge. Since the second quarter will be the first full quarter of tariffs, you should consider a quarterly tariff cost of approximately $105 million as a baseline, calculated based on an LMA of $2,400 and a Midwest premium of $0.39 per pound. We will update our sensitivities as needed if our trade flows adjust to the tariff structure.

中西部保費的更新不包括關稅的成本部分。敏感度幻燈片上新增了一列，用於表示關稅成本影響，它將出現在我們的 EBITDA 橋的另一欄中。由於第二季度將是關稅實施的第一個完整季度，因此您應該考慮以約 1.05 億美元的季度關稅成本作為基準，該成本以 2,400 美元的 LMA 和每磅 0.39 美元的中西部溢價為基礎計算得出。如果我們的貿易流量適應關稅結構，我們將根據需要更新我們的敏感度。

Now, I'll turn it back to Bill.

現在，我將話題轉回給比爾。

Thanks, Molly. Let me take the opportunity to speak to the current status of US tariffs applicable to the aluminum industry from Alcoa's perspective. While the US Section 232 tariff structure has been in place for some time, in March the tariff increased from 10% to 25% and the exemption for Canadian metal imported into the US was removed. This is the most material impact Alcoa, as approximately 70% of our aluminum produced in Canada is destined for US customers and is now subject to 25% tariff cost, which totals an estimated $400 million to $425 million annually.

謝謝，莫莉。讓我藉此機會從美鋁的角度談談美國對鋁業徵收關稅的現況。雖然美國第 232 條關稅結構已經實施了一段時間，但今年 3 月份，關稅從 10% 提高到 25%，並取消了加拿大金屬進口到美國的豁免。這對美鋁公司的影響最為重大，因為我們在加拿大生產的鋁約有 70% 銷往美國客戶，現在需要繳納 25% 的關稅，總額估計每年高達 4 億至 4.25 億美元。

Of course, there is a higher Midwest premium, which offsets some of this cost and certainly benefits our US smelters, but currently the net annual result is approximately $100 million negative for our business. Next are the IEEPA tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. Since our aluminum products and the majority of our input materials from Canada and Mexico qualify under the USMCA provisions, Alcoa does not have a significant impact from this tariff at this time.

當然，中西部地區的溢價更高，這抵消了部分成本，並且肯定使我們的美國冶煉廠受益，但目前，我們的年度淨利潤約為負 1 億美元。接下來是IEEPA對來自加拿大、墨西哥和中國的進口產品所徵收的關稅。由於我們的鋁產品以及來自加拿大和墨西哥的大部分投入材料符合 USMCA 的規定，因此美鋁目前不會受到該關稅的重大影響。

The reciprocal tariffs specifically exclude Canada and Mexico, as well as aluminum products already subject to Section 232 tariffs, so no impact on Alcoa's aluminum sales. While Alumina and other raw materials are excluded from the reciprocal tariffs, there is a portion of our input materials provided by Chinese suppliers that is now subject to the high reciprocal tariff. We expect these tariffs will increase our input costs by $10 million to $15 million annually as there are no suitable replacement suppliers.

互惠關稅特別不包括加拿大和墨西哥，以及已經受到第 232 條關稅約束的鋁產品，因此不會對美鋁的鋁銷售產生影響。雖然氧化鋁和其他原料不受互惠關稅的約束，但我們由中國供應商提供的部分投入材料目前卻要繳納高額互惠關稅。我們預計，由於沒有合適的替代供應商，這些關稅將使我們的投入成本每年增加 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。

In 2024, the US imported approximately 4.2 million metric tons of primary aluminum with imports of Canadian aluminum, representing approximately 70% or 2.9 million metric tons. The four operating smelters in the US produce 700,000 metric tons of aluminum each year. If all idle smelting capacity in the US would restart, which is approximately 600,000 metric tons, the US would still be short by 3.6 million metric tons.

2024年，美國進口原鋁約420萬公噸，其中進口加拿大鋁約佔70%，即290萬公噸。美國目前營運的四家冶煉廠每年生產 70 萬公噸鋁。如果美國所有閒置的冶煉產能都重新啟動，大約60萬公噸，美國仍然短缺360萬公噸。

It takes many years to build a new smelter, and at least five to six smelters would be required to address the US demand for primary aluminum. These new smelters would require additional energy production equivalent to almost seven new nuclear reactors, or more than ten Hoover dams. Until additional smelting capacity is built in the US, the most efficient aluminum supply chain is Canadian aluminum going into the US.

建造一座新冶煉廠需要很多年的時間，至少需要五到六座冶煉廠才能滿足美國對原鋁的需求。這些新冶煉廠所需的額外能源產量相當於近七個新核反應器或十多個胡佛大壩。在美國建立額外的冶煉能力之前，最有效的鋁供應鏈是加拿大鋁進入美國。

That being said, our global smelting portfolio and commercial experience give us options to shift metal supply as needed if trade policies and economics warrant. We've operated for more than 135 years in the aluminum industry. Building on our experience, we will continue our engagement efforts with the US government and policymakers to advocate for the best outcome possible.

話雖如此，如果貿易政策和經濟狀況允許，我們的全球冶煉組合和商業經驗使我們可以選擇根據需要轉移金屬供應。我們在鋁業已經經營了 135 多年。基於我們的經驗，我們將繼續與美國政府和政策制定者合作，爭取盡可能最好的結果。

Now let's discuss our market. In AIumina, after reaching an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024, Alumina prices declined in the first quarter of 2025. This was due to relatively higher liquidity, mainly driven by the Chinese refinery ramp-ups and normalized production outside China following several disruptions last year, as well as more recent price declines on softened sentiment given global market uncertainty.

現在讓我們討論一下我們的市場。在鋁業方面，氧化鋁價格在 2024 年第四季達到歷史最高點後，於 2025 年第一季下跌。這是由於流動性相對較高，主要原因是中國煉油廠產能增加、中國境外生產在去年數次中斷後恢復正常，以及由於全球市場不確定性導致市場情緒低迷，近期價格下跌。

Though the market has resolved most of the issues leading to its tightness in 2024, there is still uncertainty about the timing of the planned refinery ramp-ups in Indonesia and India this year. With bauxite prices remaining relatively high and the current lower alumina price, we estimate that over 80% of Chinese refineries are unprofitable.

儘管市場已經解決了導致2024年供應緊張的大部分問題，但今年印尼和印度計畫的煉油廠增產時間仍存在不確定性。由於鋁土礦價格仍相對較高，且目前氧化鋁價格較低，我們估計中國超過 80% 的煉油廠都無利可圖。

Additionally, a recent announcement by the Chinese government stated that there would be higher scrutiny on new alumina projects regarding air pollution control, bauxite sourcing, and red mud processing, which could bring additional constraints on growth in Chinese alumina production and may accelerate curtailment. This is a dynamic market, and Alcoa's global network of refineries provides security of supply of alumina both to Alcoa smelters and our major customers, which are primarily in the Middle East.

此外，中國政府最近宣布將對新的氧化鋁項目在空氣污染控制、鋁土礦採購和赤泥處理方面進行更嚴格的審查，這可能會對中國氧化鋁產量的成長帶來額外的限制，並可能加速減產。這是一個充滿活力的市場，美鋁的全球煉油廠網路為美鋁冶煉廠和我們的主要客戶（主要位於中東）提供了安全的氧化鋁供應。

A final point to highlight here is the opportunity we had in the first quarter to capitalize on the tightness in the bauxite market. With the high prices in the first quarter, we participated in the spot market to capture benefits for some volumes from our joint venture in Guinea.

最後要強調的一點是，我們在第一季有機會利用鋁土礦市場的緊張局面。由於第一季價格高企，我們參與了現貨市場，從我們在幾內亞的合資企業的部分產量中獲取利益。

Let's move on to Aluminum. The LME aluminum price was generally resilient in the first quarter, even with the decreasing aluminum price. With tariff announcements earlier this month, the LME responded by turning lower, reflecting the uncertainty of the impact of tariffs on the global economy and aluminum market. While the Midwest premium increased with the introduction of tariffs, it has not reached the $880 million to $990 million per ton level, which analysts predict supports shipments from any region to the US.

讓我們繼續討論鋁。一季度，LME鋁價整體呈現韌性，儘管鋁價下跌。隨著本月稍早關稅公告的發布，倫敦金屬交易所價格出現下跌，反映出關稅對全球經濟和鋁市場影響的不確定性。儘管隨著關稅的出台，中西部地區的溢價有所增加，但尚未達到每噸 8.8 億至 9.9 億美元的水平，而分析師預測該水平將支持從任何地區向美國發貨。

The logistics still favor shipments from Canada to the US compared to other potential major suppliers. In our view, the Midwest premium has not fully responded due to the uncertain market sentiment, as well as inventory build in the US ahead of the tariffs. The depletion of these inventories should trigger some upward response.

與其他潛在主要供應商相比，物流仍然青睞從加拿大到美國的運輸。我們認為，由於市場情緒不確定，以及關稅前美國庫存增加，中西部溢價尚未完全回應。這些庫存的消耗應該會引發一些上行反應。

Despite the uncertainty caused by the US tariffs, there were some supportive signs on the demand side in the first quarter, namely the Chinese stimulus and European fiscal loosening. Aluminum supply growth in the first quarter was very limited, as smelter ramp-ups were offset by the effect of closures that took place at the end of last year.

儘管美國關稅帶來不確定性，但第一季需求方面也出現了一些支持性跡象，即中國的刺激措施和歐洲的財政放鬆政策。第一季鋁供應成長非常有限，因為冶煉廠產量增加被去年年底關閉的影響所抵消。

In North America, our aluminum value-add product shipment volumes increased both sequentially and year over year, with healthy demand for slab, billet, and rod. However, it is difficult to say whether our customers were anticipating tariffs and therefore buying in advance.

在北美，我們的鋁加值產品出貨量較上季成長，板坯、鋼坯和鋁棒的需求旺盛。然而，很難說我們的客戶是否預期關稅並因此提前購買。

In Europe, there were slightly lower VAT volumes in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, but up year over year with strong demand for rod and slab and billet demand finally improving. For both regions, we saw the negative impact of tariffs in our Foundry order book, which is closely tied with the automotive market and faces the largest amount of uncertainty from the tariff impact.

在歐洲，第一季的增值稅量與第四季度相比略有下降，但同比增長，因為對棒材和板坯的需求強勁，而鋼坯需求最終有所改善。對於這兩個地區，我們都看到了關稅對鑄造訂單的負面影響，這些訂單與汽車市場密切相關，並且面臨關稅影響的最大不確定性。

Turning to Spain, we recently announced the formation of the joint venture with IGNIS EQT to support the continued operation of the San Ciprián complex. The idled smelting capacity is now being restarted to meet our obligation under the viability agreement, which was signed with our workforce when we curtailed the smelter in 2021 due to exorbitant energy prices. We are now focused on safely restarting the idled capacity.

在西班牙，我們最近宣布與 IGNIS EQT 成立合資企業，以支援聖西普里安綜合設施的持續運作。閒置的冶煉產能目前正在重新啟動，以履行我們在可行性協議下的義務，該協議是我們在 2021 年因能源價格過高而縮減冶煉廠產能時與員工簽署的。我們現在專注於安全地重啟閒置產能。

We will focus on repeating the strong operational results delivered in the first quarter. However, we are now adding the challenges navigating uncertainty in our markets. It's a good time to consider the actions we've taken, both recently and in the past, to be well-positioned to address adversity and capture opportunities. As a pure-play aluminum company, vertically integrated from mine to metal, with a global footprint and cost-effective portfolio of assets, Alcoa has the ability to maneuver and respond to challenging and changing markets and policies.

我們將致力於重複第一季取得的強勁營運表現。然而，我們現在面臨著應對市場不確定性的挑戰。現在正是考慮我們最近和過去所採取的行動的好時機，以便更好地應對逆境和抓住機會。作為一家從礦山到金屬垂直整合的純鋁公司，美鋁擁有全球影響力和具有成本效益的資產組合，有能力應對充滿挑戰和變化的市場和政策。

Security of supply through long-term contracts is valued by our customers. We also have the most comprehensive low-carbon products portfolio in the aluminum industry to meet customer needs. The company has a significant cash balance and a strong capital structure, with no near-term debt maturities or other obligations requiring significant cash outlays beyond normal operations.

我們的客戶重視透過長期合約實現的供應安全。我們也擁有鋁業最全面的低碳產品組合，以滿足客戶的需求。該公司擁有大量現金餘額和強大的資本結構，沒有近期債務到期或其他需要在正常營運之外進行大量現金支出的義務。

We have taken strategic actions that strengthen the company over time, including the recent acquisition of Alumina Limited and the announcement of the sale of the Ma'aden joint ventures, which is expected to close in the second quarter. We have a track record of monetizing non-core assets, including transformation sites which drive value for our stockholders. We also executed initiatives to be more cost-effective as demonstrated by our over-delivering on our $645 million profitability program last year. These competitive advantages in action support Alcoa's resilience.

我們採取了一系列策略行動來逐步增強公司實力，包括最近收購 Alumina Limited 以及宣佈出售 Ma'aden 合資企業，預計將於第二季完成。我們在將非核心資產貨幣化方面有著良好的記錄，其中包括為股東創造價值的轉型站點。我們也實施了更具成本效益的舉措，去年我們超額完成了 6.45 億美元的獲利計畫就證明了這一點。這些實際的競爭優勢支撐了美鋁的韌性。

In summary, as we close out the presentation, I'll call ahead a strong first quarter with improved safety and stable production. As a company, we make good progress on strategic actions. Looking ahead, we plan to maintain a fast pace of execution on our 2025 key areas of focus and strategic initiatives, improve the competitiveness of our operations, and navigate market challenges to deliver value to our stockholders.

總而言之，在我們結束演示時，我將提前宣布第一季將表現強勁，安全性將提高，生產將更加穩定。作為一家公司，我們在策略行動上取得了良好的進展。展望未來，我們計畫持續快速執行2025年重點關注領域與策略舉措，提高營運競爭力，因應市場挑戰，為股東創造價值。

Operator, let's start the question-and-answer portion of the session.

接線員，我們開始本次會議的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）Timna Tanners，Wolfe Research。

Yeah, good evening. Hope you're all well. I wanted to ask a little bit more about the tariff math, if we could. I know that we heard from, Molly, $105 million quarterly hit, and then I heard another $100 million from Bill. I just wanted to make sure I understood the distinction there.

是的，晚上好。希望你們一切都好。如果可以的話，我想再問一些有關關稅計算的問題。我知道，莫莉告訴我們，季度虧損 1.05 億美元，然後比爾又告訴我們，季度虧損 1 億美元。我只是想確保我理解了其中的差異。

And I know that in the past, Molly had talked about tens of millions of impact. I think that was assuming a higher Midwest premium, but just was hoping for a bit more clarification, please?

我知道，莫莉過去曾談到數千萬的影響力。我認為這假設中西部地區的保費更高，但只是希望得到更明確的說明，可以嗎？

Hi, Timna. So the first $100 million that we talked about, the negative $100 million to our overall business, that is when you consider we are getting a higher Midwest premium on our US tons. That brings a value of about $95 million. We'll also get a higher value within our Canadian metal sales into the US at $222 million.

你好，提姆娜。因此，我們談到的第一個 1 億美元，也就是我們整體業務的負 1 億美元，這是考慮到我們在美國中西部獲得了更高的溢價。其價值約為 9500 萬美元。我們的加拿大金屬對美國的銷售額也將達到更高的 2.22 億美元。

But going against that is the $400 million that Bill spoke of, the cost of the Canadian tariff. So that nets to the $100 million, and that's for the year. So that is a net number of the revenue considered against the tariff cost.

但與此相反的是比爾所說的4億美元，也就是加拿大關稅的成本。所以淨收入為 1 億美元，這是全年的收入。這是扣除關稅成本後的收入淨額。

When I spoke of the $105 million, that is the quarterly figure. That $105 million is calculated based on an LME of $2,400 and a Midwest premium of $0.39. And those are the same assumptions that are in the first $100 million for the company as a whole.

我所說的 1.05 億美元是季度數字。這 1.05 億美元是根據倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 2,400 美元和中西部地區溢價 0.39 美元計算得出的。這些假設與公司整體的第一個 1 億美元假設相同。

When we spoke, Timna, about the impact earlier, we were using different Midwest premium assumptions. We had expected that the Midwest premium would respond more quickly. It is not, it is still down from what we would hope. We see that because of the negative sentiment in the market, as well as the fact that some tons did get stockpiled in inventory in the US ahead of the tariffs. And until that stockpile depletes, we don't have the impetus for price pressure up.

蒂姆娜，當我們之前談到影響時，我們使用了不同的中西部保費假設。我們原本預期中西部地區的溢價會反應更快。事實並非如此，它仍然低於我們的期望。我們看到這種情況是因為市場情緒消極，而且在關稅實施前，美國確實囤積了一些庫存。而直到庫存耗盡，我們才有推動價格上漲的動力。

Understood. That's helpful. And then my follow-up on tariffs again would be any updated thoughts on the stickiness of these tariffs, and if sticky, do you think about restarting Warwick and what timeframe? Thanks a lot.

明白了。這很有幫助。然後，我對關稅的後續關注是對這些關稅的粘性有任何最新的想法，如果是粘性的，您是否考慮重新啟動沃里克以及時間範圍是什麼？多謝。

Hey Timna, thanks for the question. It's hard to make a restart decision based on a tariff that can change. And I really can't comment on the stickiness, because we've seen the volatility of discussions around the tariffs over the last 60 days. So we just don't know whether they will stick. And we wouldn't necessarily make a decision to restart capacity simply based on tariffs, just because they can change.

嘿，Timna，謝謝你的提問。根據可能發生變化的關稅做出重啟決定非常困難。我真的無法評論這種黏性，因為我們已經看到過去 60 天圍繞關稅的討論的波動性。所以我們不知道它們是否會堅持下去。而且，我們不一定因為關稅就會改變就做出重啟產能的決定。

Understood. Thanks, again.

明白了。再次感謝。

Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

Yeah, hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe following up on the tariffs a bit. So you talk about engaging with governments, policymakers, you know, US and abroad. But can you provide, I guess, additional color on the level of engagement, who in the Trump and maybe Canadian administrations you're dealing with?

是的，你好。午安.感謝您回答這些問題。或許會稍微跟進關稅。所以你談到與美國和國外的政府、政策制定者的接觸。但是，我想，您能否提供更多關於您與川普政府以及加拿大政府中的哪些人打交道的資訊？

And I guess, are you going at it alone as Alcoa, or in partnership with other aluminum companies, or maybe potentially customers of your products? I'm asking the second part in the context of some competitors, either with larger portions of domestic production or even like Middle Eastern competitors that are evidently announcing intentions to build US capacity?

我想問一下，您是作為美鋁公司單獨進行這項業務，還是與其他鋁業公司合作，或者可能是您產品的潛在客戶？我問的第二部分是針對一些競爭對手而言的，這些競爭對手要么擁有較大的國內生產份額，要么甚至像中東競爭對手那樣明顯宣布了在美國建立產能的意圖？

And basically, wondering are there some in the administration that are sympathetic to your arguments that the US really isn't going to be able to close the GAAP anytime soon?

基本上，想知道政府中是否有人同意您的論點，即美國確實無法在短期內關閉 GAAP？

Bill, so it's a wide-ranging question, and I'll give you a wide-ranging answer. We are engaging with both the US government and the Canadian government. We're doing that as Alcoa. We're also doing that through the US Aluminum Association.

比爾，這是一個範圍很廣的問題，我也會給你一個範圍很廣的答案。我們正在與美國政府和加拿大政府接觸。我們美鋁公司正在這樣做。我們也透過美國鋁業協會進行這項工作。

We have met either through ourselves or through the association with a number of President Trump's direct reports and the message is fairly simple. The message is that the US imports a lot of its primary aluminum and that in order to support the downstream processing jobs, we need to have economic upstream aluminum production that can come in through, preferably through Canada, but through other countries.

我們透過親自會面或透過與川普總統的一些直接下屬的聯繫進行了會面，傳達的訊息相當簡單。資訊是，美國進口大量原鋁，為了支持下游加工工作，我們需要有經濟的上游鋁生產，最好是透過加拿大，但也可以經由其他國家進入。

We've met with the Canadian government, both the outgoing Prime Minister, Mr. Trudeau; also the current Prime Minister, Mr. Carney, and have had very good discussions there. So a lot of engagement, both through us and the Aluminum Association, and the way I would characterize it is that -- and I should say it's been with the administration, it's been with House members, it's also been with senators.

我們會見了加拿大政府，包括即將離任的總理特魯多先生；還有現任首相卡尼先生，並在那裡進行了非常好的討論。因此，我們和鋁業協會都進行了大量接觸，我對此的描述是——我應該說，這是與政府、與眾議院議員、與參議員的接觸。

I would characterize it that people are listening to us, they're understanding the situation, and we'll see where we get to, but it has been at least a reception to the message that we've provided.

我想說的是，人們正在聽我們說話，他們正在理解情況，我們將看看能取得什麼成果，但這至少是對我們提供的資訊的接收。

Yeah, thanks for those insights. And then you had the cost curve on aluminum, but I'm wondering where aluminum pricing is striking today as well as the potentially challenging fundamental backdrop ahead? Where do you think the marginal cost support of aluminum stands today globally?

是的，謝謝你的見解。然後您得到了鋁的成本曲線，但我想知道今天的鋁價走勢如何以及未來可能面臨的基本面挑戰是什麼？您認為目前全球鋁的邊際成本支撐處於什麼水準？

So as of today, as I said in my prepared remarks, over 80% of the Chinese refining system is underwater. And so, we believe that there's good support level at today's pricing. We just saw today, this is very recent news, that aluminum prices came back up overnight by $17. So it feels like there's some support at the levels that it's at.

因此，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，截至今天，中國超過 80% 的煉油系統都處於水下。因此，我們相信今天的定價具有良好的支撐位。我們今天剛看到，這是最新消息，鋁價一夜之間上漲了 17 美元。因此感覺在目前的水平上存在一些支撐。

Now, that is all based on bauxite pricing. And bauxite pricing has been strong through the first 3.5 months of the year. And it still sits at $80 to $85 a ton, bauxite pricing. And that is support for aluminum costs.

現在，這一切都基於鋁土礦定價。今年前三個半月鋁土礦價格一直堅挺。鋁土礦價格仍維持在每噸 80 至 85 美元。這對鋁成本有支撐作用。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

Chris LaFemina, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的克里斯拉菲米納 (Chris LaFemina)。

Hi. Thanks, operator. Hi, Bill. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to ask on San Ciprián. So the slide that you have here, you talk about the impact on 2025 and then also the hedging strategy you've deployed to mitigate financial risks from 2025 to 2027. So if we're looking at, I don't know, $100 million to $120 million of negative cash flow from the restart of the smelter in 2025, what happens beyond 2025? How do the hedges help?

你好。謝謝，接線生。你好，比爾。感謝您回答我的問題。只是想問 San Ciprián。因此，您在這裡的幻燈片中討論了對 2025 年的影響，以及您為減輕 2025 年至 2027 年的金融風險而部署的對沖策略。因此，如果我們考慮 2025 年冶煉廠重啟後產生的 1 億至 1.2 億美元的負現金流，那麼 2025 年以後會發生什麼事？樹籬有何幫助？

And then secondly, I think there was the guidance had been that if you burn through roughly $200 million at San Ciprián comes a point where you just can't continue to subsidize this. And does this hedging strategy that you refer to here protect you from that over the 2025 to 2027 period?

其次，我認為指導意見是，如果在聖西普里安計畫上花費約 2 億美元，那麼到時候就無法繼續補貼了。您在這裡提到的對沖策略能在 2025 年至 2027 年期間保護您免受此類風險嗎？

I'll take this one. Unfortunately, we did start to put the hedges in place several weeks ago. And we have secured hedge pricing that will help us to manage the costs within the funding offload. We are focused year by year. On 2025, we released the guidance for the smelter.

我要這個。不幸的是，我們幾週前就開始設置樹籬了。我們已經確保了對沖定價，這將有助於我們管理融資卸載範圍內的成本。我們一年比一年專注。2025年，我們發布了冶煉廠的指導。

We expect to lose about $70 million to $90 million in EBITDA. The cash used by those operations will be about $90 million to $110 million. The CapEx that we referred to is already included in our CapEx guidance.

我們預計 EBITDA 將損失約 7,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元。這些業務所用的現金約為 9,000 萬至 1.1 億美元。我們所提到的資本支出已經包含在我們的資本支出指南中。

Okay. So, it's important to remember also that a portion of that CapEx we would need to spend anyway. A portion of that CapEx is going toward the raise of the refinery at mud lake. That no matter whether we were running it or not, we would need to be able to make that, because it also assists us in the final closure of that red mud lake.

好的。因此，同樣重要的是要記住，無論如何我們都需要花費一部分資本支出。其中一部分資本支出將用於興建泥湖煉油廠。無論我們是否運行它，我們都需要能夠做到這一點，因為它也幫助我們最終關閉那個紅泥湖。

Right. And could you quantify what the EBITDA impact would be in 2026, if you assume that prices don't change? I mean, how much of that $70 million to $90 million negative impact in 2025 is a function of restart and kind of other one-off costs that I'm not going to repeat?

正確的。如果您假設價格不變，您能否量化 2026 年 EBITDA 的影響？我的意思是，2025 年 7,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元的負面影響中有多少是重啟和其他一次性成本造成的，我不想再重複了？

And also, how much of that is protected by tariffs -- or sorry, by you're hedging in 2026. In other words, is this going to be $70 million to $90 million a year or is it going to be a lot less than that in terms of the loss in 2026 if we assume prices don't change? Thank you.

而且其中有多少受到關稅的保護——或者抱歉，受到 2026 年對沖的保護。換句話說，如果我們假設價格不變，那麼每年的損失是 7,000 萬到 9,000 萬美元嗎？還是說，就 2026 年的損失而言，損失會少很多？謝謝。

The smelter losses are heavier in 2025, because we have the inefficiencies of the restart. We've not yet released the '26 numbers, Chris. We'll look to do that as we get closer to the end of the year.

2025 年冶煉廠的損失將更加嚴重，因為重啟導致效率低落。我們還沒有發布 26 個數字，克里斯。隨著年底的臨近，我們將努力實現這一目標。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

尼克吉爾斯 (Nick Giles)，B. Riley 證券。

Thanks, operator. Good evening, everyone. My first question was, you mentioned the higher scrutiny on future aluminum production in China. But if 80% are unprofitable today, what do you think it will ultimately take for Chinese aluminum refineries to curtail output?

謝謝，接線生。大家晚上好。我的第一個問題是，您提到中國未來將對鋁生產進行更嚴格的審查。但如果目前 80% 的鋁廠都無利可圖，您認為中國鋁廠最終需要採取什麼措施來削減產量呢？

We're seeing part of it today, already. In my history in this industry, the Chinese are very quick to react to negative economic scenarios. So we're seeing it today with maintenance outages, extended maintenance outages. So I really believe that they will react quickly to loss-making sites.

今天我們已經看到了其中的一部分。在我從事這個行業的經驗中，中國人對負面的經濟狀況的反應非常迅速。因此，我們今天看到了維護中斷，延長的維護中斷。所以我真的相信他們會對虧損的網站做出迅速反應。

Thanks for that, Bill. And then maybe just to follow up there. You mentioned the spot bauxite opportunities in 1Q, and so with the lower alumina prices but bauxite prices remaining more resilient, could it make sense to reduce alumina production and sell more bauxite directly to Chinese refineries, for instance?

謝謝你，比爾。然後也許只是跟進一下。您提到了第一季的現貨鋁土礦機會，那麼在氧化鋁價格較低但鋁土礦價格保持較強彈性的情況下，減少氧化鋁產量並直接向中國煉油廠出售更多鋁土礦是否合理？

I think the economics would be really, really difficult to do that. And the reason why I say that is the marginal tons that you run through the refineries are generally pretty low cost. And so I don't believe -- and I haven't looked at the numbers recently, but I don't believe it would support curtailing refining capacity to sell bauxite into China. So I just don't think that would solve at this point.

我認為從經濟角度來說，要做到這一點非常非常困難。我之所以這麼說，是因為透過煉油廠生產的邊際噸位通常成本相當低。所以我不相信——我最近也沒有看過這些數字，但我不相信它會支持削減煉油能力以將鋁土礦賣到中國。所以我認為這目前還無法解決。

All right, thanks for that, Bill. My second question would be, what's the impact of lower oil and other input prices on the cost side? Could you speak to when some of that could flow through? And if not, in the second quarter, could we ultimately see some benefit in the third quarter that might not be reflected in your current guide?

好的，謝謝你，比爾。我的第二個問題是，石油和其他投入價格下跌對成本有何影響？您能否談談其中的一些內容何時可以實現？如果第二季沒有，我們最終是否會在第三季看到一些可能不會反映在您目前指南中的好處？

As we look at our raw material costs in the second quarter, we are seeing a caustic price increasing. We have about a $5 million negative. We didn't call that out in the guidance, because we have productivity initiatives to offset it. And likewise, on the smelting side, we have price pressure primarily in coke. That's about another $5 million. But the same, we didn't call that out because we expect to overcome that with productivity.

當我們查看第二季的原物料成本時，我們發現腐蝕性價格正在上漲。我們的虧損約為 500 萬美元。我們沒有在指導中提到這一點，因為我們有生產力舉措來抵消它。同樣，在冶煉方面，我們主要面臨的是焦炭價格壓力。這大約是另外500萬美元。但同樣，我們沒有指出這一點，因為我們希望透過提高生產力來克服這一點。

Got it. Thanks very much. Continue. Best of luck.

知道了。非常感謝。繼續。祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

卡洛斯·德阿爾巴，摩根士丹利。

Yeah. Thank you very much. Just on working capital, obviously, we're expecting all the consensus are ourselves increasing in working capital in the quarter, but it was a little bit more than expected. How do you see that playing out in the remaining quarters?

是的。非常感謝。就營運資本而言，顯然，我們預期本季所有的共識都是營運資本會增加，但這比預期要多一點。您認為接下來的幾季中情況會如何？

Hey, Carlos, we will see working capital come down significantly throughout the year, as we typically do. We do expect a pretty sizable drop-off in the second quarter, just coming off some of the high pricing. As we looked at the timing of shipments, as well as some of the buildup in raw material prices and volumes, we did hit a higher working capital level in the first quarter than we had expected.

嘿，卡洛斯，我們會看到營運資金全年大幅下降，就像我們通常做的那樣。我們確實預計第二季會出現相當大的下降，這只是由於部分高定價的影響。當我們考慮出貨時間以及原物料價格和產量的上漲時，我們在第一季的營運資本水準確實高於我們的預期。

Fair enough. And then in your guidance, I just want to confirm that you're expecting the second quarter to have a tax benefit between $50 million and $60 million. So this is fair to say that it's because the expectation is to have negative profit in the quarter?

很公平。然後，在您的指導中，我只想確認您預計第二季的稅收優惠將在 5000 萬美元至 6000 萬美元之間。所以可以公平地說，這是因為預計本季獲利為負嗎？

It's not negative profit, Carlos. Remember, we calculated our taxes always on a year-to-date basis. And so we earned quite a bit in the first quarter. And as you look at declining Alumina prices, then we have to do a catch-up entry for taxes to the first quarter. So it's really the catch-up entry that creates us into a net benefit position.

這不是負利潤，卡洛斯。請記住，我們總是根據年初至今的情況來計算稅金。因此我們在第一季賺了很多錢。當你看到氧化鋁價格下跌時，我們必須對第一季的稅收進行補計。因此，真正讓我們獲得淨收益的是追趕性進入。

All right, great. Thank you very much.

好的，太好了。非常感謝。

Is that clear to you, Carlos? Because that's a tough concept. You forecast out for the year when you close your books at the end of March what your taxes will be and you book the taxes accordingly.

卡洛斯，你明白了嗎？因為這是一個很難的概念。當您在三月底結帳時，您可以預測全年的稅金金額，並據此登記稅款。

Essentially, what we're saying is that profitability will be, at least, with our current view, will be lower in the second quarter because of pricing coming down. And we will be booking a tax benefit associated with our full-year tax guidance. So it's not that we're projecting. Don't think that, hey, they're projecting tax income because they're going to have an EBITDA loss. That's not the case.

從本質上講，我們所說的是，至少根據我們目前的觀點，由於價格下降，第二季的獲利能力將會降低。我們將預訂與全年稅收指引相關的稅收優惠。所以這並不是我們所預測的。別以為，嘿，他們預測稅收是因為他們將會有 EBITDA 損失。事實並非如此。

You project out the full-year taxes and adjust it each quarter. And I don't want you to walk away thinking, wow, these guys are going to be projecting negative PVT in the second pre-tax profit in the second quarter, because of the tax guidance that we're providing. And feel free to --

您預測全年稅收並每季進行調整。我不希望您離開時想，哇，由於我們提供的稅收指導，這些人將在第二季的第二個稅前利潤中預測負的 PVT。並且隨意--

That's exactly correct. Thank you, Carlos.

完全正確。謝謝你，卡洛斯。

You can be my -- using layman terms? I'm sorry. It's complex stuff. And the tone of the question was -- man, you can have big losses. No, that's not. It's just a catch-up.

你可以是我的──用外行人的話來說？對不起。這是很複雜的事情。問題的語氣是——夥計，你可能會遭受巨大的損失。不，不是這樣的。這只不過是追趕而已。

If you look at the two details, we will actually have regular tax expense related to earnings in the second quarter, but we will have a catch-up entry that will trigger a benefit related to the first quarter.

如果你看這兩個細節，我們實際上會在第二季產生與收益相關的常規稅費，但我們會有一個補繳分錄，這將觸發與第一季相關的收益。

Yeah.

是的。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Clear as mud, but I'm sure Molly can clear everything up for everyone.

一清二楚，但我相信莫莉可以為大家澄清一切。

Daniel Major, UBS.

瑞銀的丹尼爾·梅傑（Daniel Major）。

Hi. Yeah, thanks. Can you hear me okay?

你好。是的，謝謝。你聽見我說話嗎？

Yeah. Hi, Daniel.

是的。你好，丹尼爾。

Great. Yeah, thanks. Just to follow up on -- just to clarify the sensitivities around the tariffs. So I think you clarified before that the tariff is based on the LME plus the duty unpaid premium that's about [$300 million], I believe, at the moment.

偉大的。是的，謝謝。只是為了跟進——只是為了澄清有關關稅的敏感度。所以我認為你之前已經澄清過，關稅是基於倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 加上未繳關稅的溢價，我認為目前約為 [3 億美元]。

So the 25% tariff, if that was applied to that, would it be right that that would be about $975 million against the current Midwest of about $850 million? So is it the right assumption that if things normalize the premium list by around [$100 million], all else equal, that would be broadly neutral to the business relative to the $100 million guidance you've given, based on the 39%? Is that the right way of thinking about those sensitivities?

那麼，如果徵收 25% 的關稅，那麼中西部地區的出口額大約是 9.75 億美元，而目前中西部地區的出口額大約是 8.5 億美元，這樣對嗎？那麼，如果其他所有因素都相同，將保費清單正常化約 [1 億美元]，那麼根據 39% 的預測，相對於您給出的 1 億美元指導價而言，這對業務來說大致是中性的，這是正確的假設嗎？這是思考這些敏感度問題的正確方式嗎？

We're not completely following the logic. And what I would suggest to you, is you take that logic offline with Louis later and he can answer it.

我們並沒有完全遵循這個邏輯。我建議你稍後再與路易斯討論這個邏輯，他可以回答。

What we can say is that the Midwest hasn't reacted -- back to Timna's question, the Midwest has not reacted as high as what we would have anticipated based on a 25% 232 tariff. And the reasons for that are the two that Molly listed.

我們可以說的是，中西部地區還沒有做出反應——回到 Timna 的問題，中西部地區的反應並沒有像我們根據 25% 的 232 關稅所預期的那樣強烈。原因就是 Molly 列出的兩個。

One, there's still uncertainty around the tariffs. And I think the market bakes in uncertainty around the tariffs given some of the swings that we've seen. And then secondly, there was some importation of aluminum in advance of the tariffs that will need to burn through in the United States until you see that marginal ton be really necessary to drive the marginal ton to come to the United States.

一是關稅問題仍存在不確定性。我認為，鑑於我們看到的一些波動，市場對關稅存在不確定性。其次，在關稅實施之前，美國需要進口一些鋁，這些鋁需要在美國國內消耗，直到你發現邊際噸數真的有必要推動邊際噸數進入美國。

Okay. Okay, thanks for that. And then the second question on San Ciprián, that's following on from Chris's question. I think previously, you'd indicated that one of the requirements to put more cash into the complex was the release of the restricted cash. I think that still sits about $88 million. Can you give us an update on when you expect that to be released and how that will be distributed? Will that go into funding cash burn beyond 2025, or will it move back onto Alcoa's balance sheet and into the net debt bridge?

好的。好的，謝謝。然後是關於聖西普里安的第二個問題，這是克里斯問題的延續。我認為之前您曾表示，向該綜合體投入更多現金的要求之一是釋放受限制的現金。我認為這個數字仍然在 8800 萬美元左右。您能否向我們透露預計發佈時間以及分發方式？這些資金是否會用於資助 2025 年以後的現金消耗，還是會重新回到美鋁的資產負債表和淨債務橋？

We have had success having a portion of it released. So the money that was related to the restart, there's about $12 million that's been released. And we continue to have discussions with the workers' representatives on getting the balance released. There's about $75 million more there.

我們已經成功發布了其中的一部分。因此，與重啟相關的資金大約有 1200 萬美元已經發放。我們將繼續與工人代表討論如何釋放餘額。那裡還有大約 7500 萬美元。

And do you have an expected timing on the release of that $75 million?

您預計這 7500 萬美元何時發放？

Those discussions continue. We expect that we will get recoveries related to the restart costs. Those will come in as we spend. We'll get those pieces released. But the part that is held related to the anode bake furnace build, that's a CapEx project that we are not going to do during this recovery period. That's about $50 million, and that is the contentious point in the discussion.

這些討論仍在繼續。我們預計我們將獲得與重啟成本相關的回收。隨著我們的支出，這些收入也會隨之而來。我們會發布這些作品。但與陽極焙燒爐建設有關的部分是一個資本支出項目，我們不會在此恢復期間進行。這大約是 5000 萬美元，這也是討論中的爭議點。

We are not planning on rebuilding the bay furnace through 2027. So the thinking is that that would be held up, that cash.

我們不打算在 2027 年之前重建隔間爐。所以，我們的想法是，這些現金將會被扣留。

Okay. And then just a final follow-up, if I could, on the guidance you gave on the cash burn for San Ciprián, the $90 million to $110 million. Is that for the smelter, just the smelter and not the refinery?

好的。如果可以的話，我最後再問一下您對聖西普里安的現金消耗的指導，即 9000 萬至 1.1 億美元。這是針對冶煉廠而言的嗎？只是針對冶煉廠，而不是針對精煉廠？

Just the smelter.

只是冶煉廠。

I would assume the refinery is burning cash at $350 million, Alumina as well.

我估計該煉油廠的耗資為 3.5 億美元，氧化鋁廠也是如此。

The refinery has been near breakeven through the first quarter as well, but it will move into a lost position with the lower API.

該煉油廠在第一季也已接近損益平衡，但隨著 API 的下降，該煉油廠將陷入虧損狀態。

Okay. Thanks for the questions.

好的。感謝您的提問。

Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe going back to the Midwest premium, and I apologize if I missed that, but what was the higher Midwest premium assumed in the net $100 million calculation of the tariff impact?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。也許要回到中西部保費問題，如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但是在計算 1 億美元的淨關稅影響時，假設的中西部保費較高是多少？

We were comparing the January 31 Midwest premium. We kind of considered that the base before tariffs of $0.24, and then comparing it to the Midwest premium earlier this week at $0.39. So that's the comparison.

我們正在比較 1 月 31 日中西部地區的溢價。我們認為關稅前的基數為 0.24 美元，然後將其與本週早些時候中西部地區的溢價 0.39 美元進行比較。這就是比較。

So the $100 million is based on a $0.39 Midwest premium.

因此，1 億美元是基於 0.39 美元的中西部溢價而定的。

And Bill, you said -- you mentioned the Midwest premium didn't react as expected based on the 25% tariffs. What would be the right Midwest premium with the tariffs?

比爾，您說——您提到中西部地區的溢價並沒有像預期的那樣對 25% 的關稅做出反應。加徵關稅後中西部地區的合理溢價是多少？

I added in my slides presentation, so you're going to ask me to go back to that. It was --

我在幻燈片演示中添加了該內容，因此您會要求我回到那裡。這是--

$880 million to $990 million.

8.8億至9.9億美元。

Thank you. You know my numbers better than I do. It's on page 17 of the slide presentation, $880 million to $990 million. That's what we would think the equilibrium would be at a 25% Midwest premium -- I'm sorry, 25% tariff.

謝謝。你比我更了解我的數字。幻燈片簡報的第 17 頁是 8.8 億美元到 9.9 億美元。我們認為，中西部地區溢價為 25%（抱歉，是 25% 的關稅），此時的平衡點就在這裡。

And then maybe lastly, just on the permitting in Western Australia, is that still progressing as expected?

最後，關於西澳大利亞州的許可，進展是否仍如預期進行？

It is. We have a public comment period coming up here toward the beginning of the second quarter, so it is progressing as expected.

這是。我們將在第二季初啟動公眾評論期，因此進展符合預期。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

尼克吉爾斯 (Nick Giles)，B. Riley 證券。

Thank you very much for taking my follow-up. Iceland's Prime Minister made some comments around concerns that shipments from Iceland to the EU could be subject to trade restrictions. Whether or not that's true, I was just wondering if you could comment on how Alcoa could be impacted by any trade action in the EU? Maybe separately, how Alcoa -- your desire to participate in the EU's effort to ultimately reach your capacity? Thank you very much.

非常感謝您接受我的跟進。冰島總理就冰島向歐盟出口貨物可能受到貿易限制的擔憂發表了一些評論。無論這是否屬實，我只是想知道您是否可以評論美國鋁業公司將如何受到歐盟貿易行動的影響？也許另外，美鋁公司—您希望如何參與歐盟的努力最終達到您的產能？非常感謝。

Nick, it's a great question that doesn't have a great answer. And the reason why I say that is, there is just too much uncertainty still about what the EU will do in relation to the US tariffs for us to speculate at this point. The US tariffs are pretty well settled around the 232.

尼克，這是一個很好的問題，但沒有一個很好的答案。我之所以這麼說，是因為歐盟將如何應對美國關稅，目前仍有太多不確定性，我們無法進行猜測。美國關稅已基本決定在232左右。

However, the IEEPA tariffs and the reciprocal tariffs are still a lot of questions there. So for me, to speculate what the Europeans will do is probably premature at this point.

然而，IEEPA關稅和互惠關稅仍存在許多問題。因此對我來說，現在猜測歐洲人會做什麼可能還為時過早。

As far as reshoring capacity, we have capacity in two plants in Norway, one in Iceland, and we're restarting the Spanish facility. We've talked a lot about the restart of the Spanish facility and the financial burden that that creates on the company. The reason why we're doing that is because we had a contractual commitment to restart it, and that's why we are restarting that capacity. So that, in and of itself, reshores a couple hundred thousand tons of smelting capacity into Europe.

就恢復產能而言，我們在挪威有兩家工廠，在冰島有一家工廠，我們正在重啟西班牙的工廠。我們已經多次討論過西班牙工廠的重啟以及這給公司帶來的財務負擔。我們這樣做的原因是，我們有合約承諾重新啟動該產能，這就是我們重新啟動該產能的原因。因此，這本身就將數十萬噸的冶煉產能轉移至歐洲。

Bill, that's very helpful. Appreciate all the color.

比爾，這非常有幫助。欣賞所有的色彩。

Thanks, Nick.

謝謝，尼克。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Oplinger for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給奧普林格先生，請他作最後發言。

Thanks for joining our call today. Molly and I look forward to sharing further progress when we speak again in July. Thank you. This concludes our call.

感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。莫莉和我期待在七月再次交談時分享進一步的進展。謝謝。我們的通話到此結束。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。