威騰電子 (WDC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Western Digital's Second Quarter Fiscal 2024 Analyst Call. (Operator Instructions) Now I will turn the call over to Mr. Peter Andrew, VP of FP&A and IR. You may begin.

下午好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加西部數據 2024 財年第二季分析師電話會議。 （操作員指示）現在我將電話轉給 FP&A 和 IR 副總裁 Peter Andrew 先生。你可以開始了。

Well, thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today are David Goeckeler, Chief Executive Officer; and Wissam Jabre, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on management's current assumptions and expectations and as such, does include risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include expectations for our product portfolio, business plans and performance, market trends and dynamics, and financial results. We assume no obligation to update these statements. Please refer to our most recent financial report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC for more information on the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

好的，謝謝大家，大家下午好。今天與我一起出席的是執行長 David Goeckeler；和首席財務官 Wissam Jabre。在開始之前，讓我提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於管理層當前假設和預期的前瞻性陳述，因此確實包含風險和不確定性。這些前瞻性陳述包括對我們的產品組合、業務計劃和業績、市場趨勢和動態以及財務表現的預期。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。請參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格財務報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件，以了解有關可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。

We will also make references to non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations between the non-GAAP and comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the press release and other materials that are being posted in the Investor Relations section of our website. With that, I will now turn the call over to David for introductory remarks.

今天我們也將提及非公認會計準則財務指標。非公認會計原則和可比較公認會計原則財務指標之間的調節包含在我們網站投資者關係部分發布的新聞稿和其他資料中。現在，我將把電話轉給大衛進行介紹性發言。

Thank you, Peter. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining the call to discuss our second quarter of fiscal year 2024 results. Western Digital's second quarter results demonstrate that the structural changes we have put in place over the last few years and the strategy we have been executing are producing significant outperformance across our Flash and HDD businesses. I am confident that building leading products across a broad range of end markets, closely controlling our product costs through focused R&D and manufacturing, and bolstering the agility of our business will allow us to improve through-cycle profitability and dampen business cycles.

謝謝你，彼得。大家下午好，感謝您參加討論我們 2024 財年第二季業績的電話會議。西部數據第二季業績表明，我們在過去幾年中實施的結構性變革以及我們一直在執行的策略正在為我們的快閃記憶體和硬碟業務帶來顯著的優異表現。我相信，在廣泛的終端市場上打造領先產品，透過集中研發和製造密切控制我們的產品成本，並增強我們業務的敏捷性，將使我們能夠提高整個週期的盈利能力並抑製商業週期。

As a result, we reported revenue of $3 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of 15.5% and a non-GAAP loss per share of $0.69, all of which met or exceeded the non-GAAP guidance ranges we provided in October. Before discussing the business details, I want to provide some comments on the emerging trends we are seeing and how the changes we have made position our Flash and HD (sic) [HDD] businesses to benefit.

結果，我們報告的收入為 30 億美元，非 GAAP 毛利率為 15.5%，非 GAAP 每股虧損為 0.69 美元，所有這些都達到或超過了我們 10 月提供的非 GAAP 指導範圍。在討論業務細節之前，我想就我們所看到的新興趨勢以及我們所做的改變如何使我們的閃存和高清（原文如此）[HDD] 業務受益提供一些評論。

In flash, we've been able to navigate business cycles by managing inventory proactively, offering a broad range of products, and optimizing capital efficiency through our joint venture partnership with Kioxia. These successful efforts are reflected in our best-in-class gross margin throughout the cycle. During the quarter, our portfolio strategy to dynamically allocate bit shipments drove upside in ASPs and gross margin. Looking ahead, we will continue to take a disciplined approach to our supply and capital investments. Consequently, we continue to proactively manage our bit shipments to structurally align our supply and inventory with customer demand and improve through-cycle profitability into the future.

在快閃記憶體中，我們已經能夠透過主動管理庫存、提供廣泛的產品以及透過與 Kioxia 的合資夥伴關係優化資本效率來駕馭商業週期。這些成功的努力反映在我們整個週期中同類最佳的毛利率中。本季度，我們動態分配比特出貨量的投資組合策略推動了平均售價和毛利率的上升。展望未來，我們將繼續對供應和資本投資採取嚴格的態度。因此，我們繼續積極管理我們的鑽頭出貨量，使我們的供應和庫存在結構上與客戶需求保持一致，並提高未來的整個週期獲利能力。

In addition to the recovery in both Flash and HDD markets, we believe storage is entering a multiyear growth period. Generative AI has quickly emerged as yet another growth driver and transformative technology that is reshaping all industries, all companies in our daily lives. Importantly, industry analysts estimate that the edge now represents approximately 80% of total NAND bit shipments, an increase from approximately 75% in calendar year 2022, which is another indication that cloud demand was significantly pulled in during the pandemic.

除了快閃記憶體和硬碟市場的復甦之外，我們認為儲存正在進入多年增長期。生成式人工智慧已迅速成為另一個成長動力和變革性技術，正在重塑我們日常生活中的所有產業、所有公司。重要的是，產業分析師估計，邊緣設備目前約佔 NAND 位出貨量的 80%，較 2022 年的約 75% 有所增加，這再次表明雲端需求在疫情期間大幅拉動。

In addition, we believe the second wave of generative AI-driven storage deployments will spark a client and consumer device refresh cycle and reaccelerate content growth in PC, smartphone, gaming and consumer in the coming years. Our flash portfolio is extremely well positioned to benefit from this emerging secular tailwind.

此外，我們相信第二波生成式人工智慧驅動的儲存部署將引發客戶端和消費者設備更新週期，並在未來幾年重新加速個人電腦、智慧型手機、遊戲和消費者的內容成長。我們的快閃記憶體產品組合處於非常有利的位置，可以從這種新興的長期順風中受益。

In HDD, Western Digital's leading ePMR platform and enhanced UltraSMR technology allow us to provide the highest-capacity drives for mass market deployment. We believe this innovative technology and portfolio strategy enable us to offer the best TCO to our cloud customers and outperform our peers throughout the cycle. We are confident that the multi-quarter nearline demand headwinds have subsided as our major cloud customers have reengaged with us. We anticipate our financial outperformance resulting from profitable share gains to become more evident as nearline demand accelerates into the second half of fiscal year 2024 and beyond.

在硬碟領域，西部數據領先的 ePMR 平台和增強的 UltraSMR 技術使我們能夠為大眾市場部署提供最高容量的驅動器。我們相信，這種創新技術和產品組合策略使我們能夠為雲端客戶提供最佳的 TCO，並在整個週期中超越同行。我們相信，隨著我們的主要雲端客戶重新與我們合作，多季的近線需求逆風已經消退。我們預計，隨著 2024 財年下半年及以後的近線需求加速成長，獲利份額成長帶來的財務優異表現將變得更加明顯。

Moving on to end market commentary. During the quarter, revenue in the cloud end market returned to sequential growth for the first time in 6 quarters. The sequential revenue growth was led by an increase in nearline shipments. In client, sequentially, revenue declined slightly as the increase in flash ASPs was offset by a decline in bit shipments as we proactively optimized product mix. In consumer, the sequential revenue growth was led by seasonal strength in flash bit shipments into retail and an increase in flash ASPs.

接下來是終端市場評論。本季度，雲端市場營收6季以來首次恢復季增。收入連續成長是由近線出貨量的增加所帶動的。在客戶端方面，收入連續略有下降，因為快閃記憶體平均售價的成長被我們主動優化產品組合導致位元出貨量的下降所抵消。在消費者領域，收入的環比增長是由零售閃存位出貨量的季節性強勁以及閃存平均售價的增長帶動的。

I'll now turn to business updates, starting with Flash. During the quarter, the sequential revenue increase was due to stronger execution in driving price inflection by optimizing bit shipment across our broad go-to-market channels into the consumer and client end markets, resulting in stronger-than-planned ASP increase. In particular, our WD Black gaming SSD product, which offers high reliability, best-in-class performance, expansive storage capabilities and a hyper-realistic gaming experience, achieved a new record revenue with bit shipment growth of over 50% year-over-year.

我現在將轉向業務更新，從 Flash 開始。本季度，收入環比增長是由於透過優化我們進入消費者和客戶端市場的廣泛上市管道的比特出貨量來推動價格波動，從而導致平均售價增長強於計劃。特別是，我們的WD Black遊戲SSD產品，提供高可靠性、一流的性能、廣泛的存儲能力和超現實的遊戲體驗，創下了新的收入記錄，位出貨量同比增長超過50%。年。

On the technology front, we remain on track to ramp an array of QLC-based client SSDs, utilizing BiCS6 technology. Our ability to combine this new high-performance node with our in-house controller development allows us to offer a portfolio of client SSDs with unmatched performance and value. We expect these products to lead the transition to QLC flash in calendar year 2024. Additionally, BiCS8 yield is progressing well, and we remain on track to productize this technology.

在技​​術方面，我們仍然致力於利用 BiCS6 技術推出一系列基於 QLC 的客戶端 SSD。我們能夠將這種新的高效能節點與我們的內部控制器開發相結合，使我們能夠提供具有無與倫比的效能和價值的客戶端 SSD 產品組合。我們預計這些產品將在 2024 年引領向 QLC 快閃記憶體的過渡。此外，BiCS8 產量進展順利，我們仍有望實現這項技術的產品化。

Turning to HDD. The sequential revenue increase was driven by improving nearline demand and pricing. Moreover, we are encouraged by demand in China with revenue doubling on a sequential and year-over-year basis, both of which were ahead of our expectations. We anticipate year-over-year growth in HDD throughout this calendar year. In both the first and second quarters, we shipped approximately 1 million UltraSMR drives per quarter. We forecast UltraSMR hard drive shipments to increase significantly in the fiscal third quarter and SMR drive shipments to continue to outgrow that of CMR drives going forward.

轉向硬碟。收入環比增長是由近線需求和定價的改善所推動的。此外，我們對中國的需求感到鼓舞，收入環比和同比翻番，這兩者都超出了我們的預期。我們預計今年硬碟將年增。在第一季和第二季度，我們每季售出約 100 萬個 UltraSMR 硬碟。我們預測 UltraSMR 硬碟出貨量將在第三財季大幅成長，且 SMR 硬碟出貨量的成長將持續超過 CMR 硬碟。

Importantly, the adoption of UltraSMR is broadening to our major customers worldwide, including a third cloud titan in the U.S. this year as well as hyperscale and smart video customers in China. We expect to complete the qualifications of our 26-terabyte and 28-terabyte UltraSMR drives at these customers this quarter and throughout the calendar year and forecast SMR to comprise the majority of nearline demand by calendar year 2025.

重要的是，UltraSMR 的採用正在擴大到我們全球的主要客戶，包括今年美國的第三家雲端巨頭以及中國的超大規模和智慧視訊客戶。我們預計將在本季和全年完成這些客戶對我們的 26 TB 和 28 TB UltraSMR 硬碟的認證，並預測到 2025 年 SMR 將佔近線需求的大部分。

We have strong conviction that our portfolio strategy of first commercializing Western Digital's industry-leading UltraSMR technology, which will be followed by our transition from ePMR to HAMR, offers the best TCO to our customers in both the near and long term, while delivering leading portfolio profitability in the industry. Over the next several years, we will be introducing a number of exciting products, including multiple generations of nearline drives combining ePMR, OptiNAND and UltraSMR technologies in the 30- to upper 30-terabyte capacity range, all of which will be ready for high-volume production to support the explosion of AI training data and content.

我們堅信，我們的產品組合策略首先將西部數據行業領先的 UltraSMR 技術商業化，然後從 ePMR 過渡到 HAMR，為我們的客戶提供近期和長期最佳的 TCO，同時提供領先的產品組合行業的盈利能力。在接下來的幾年中，我們將推出許多令人興奮的產品，包括在30 到30 TB 容量範圍內結合ePMR、OptiNAND 和UltraSMR 技術的多代近線驅動器，所有這些產品都將為高容量做好準備。量產以支援人工智慧訓練資料和內容的爆炸性增長。

Before I turn over to Wissam, I wanted to share some perspectives on our outlook. In flash, starting with demand in calendar year 2024, we estimate industry bit growth to be around the mid-teens percentage, similar to the growth rate in calendar year 2023. On the supply side, we estimate that fab out bit production growth to remain in the mid-single-digit percentage range. We believe our business agility and our highly capital-efficient and low-cost BiCS architecture have enabled us to align supply with demand via nodal transition much more quickly than our peers. We will continue our disciplined approach to dynamically managing our inventory capacities and capital expenditures to keep our supply aligned with end customer demand.

在向 Wissam 求助之前，我想分享一些對我們前景的看法。在快閃記憶體領域，從 2024 年的需求開始，我們預期產業比特成長率將在 15% 左右，與 2023 年的成長率類似。在供應方面，我們預期晶圓廠比特產量的成長將保持不變在中間個位數百分比範圍內。我們相信，我們的業務敏捷性以及高資本效率和低成本的 BiCS 架構使我們能夠比同行更快地透過節點過渡來調整供應與需求。我們將繼續採用嚴格的方法來動態管理我們的庫存能力和資本支出，以保持我們的供應與最終客戶的需求保持一致。

Although flash pricing has started to increase, our profitability and cash generation continue to be well below the level that justify an increase in capital investments. We anticipate wafer equipment spending will remain at historic lows in the near term and flash to be undersupplied for an extended period of time. Overall, we will continue to focus on allocating our bids to the most attractive end markets and anticipate flash ASP increases to be the primary revenue growth driver throughout this calendar year.

儘管閃定價已開始上漲，但我們的獲利能力和現金產生量仍遠低於增加資本投資的合理水準。我們預計晶圓設備支出短期內將保持在歷史低位，並且在很長一段時間內將出現供應不足的情況。總體而言，我們將繼續專注於將投標分配給最具吸引力的終端市場，並預計平均售價的快速成長將成為今年全年收入成長的主要推動力。

In HDD, our competitive portfolio strategy has enabled us to consistently achieve profitable share gain in the last 2 calendar years. We are confident that this trend will continue as nearline demand continues to improve and we continue to ramp our UltraSMR-enabled products. Let me now turn the call over to Wissam, who will discuss our financial second quarter results.

在 HDD 領域，我們具有競爭力的投資組合策略使我們能夠在過去兩年中持續實現可獲利的份額成長。我們相信，隨著近線需求的不斷改善以及我們不斷增加支援 UltraSMR 的產品，這一趨勢將持續下去。現在讓我將電話轉給維薩姆，他將討論我們第二季的財務表現。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Following on David's comments, the success of the strategy we have been executing is reflected in our financial performance. Non-GAAP results in the fiscal second quarter exceeded or were at the high end of the guidance ranges we provided in October. Total revenue for the quarter was $3 billion, up 10% sequentially and down 2% year-over-year. Non-GAAP loss per share was $0.69 as strong execution with our broad go-to-market channels benefited flash ASP and gross margin.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。根據大衛的評論，我們一直執行的策略的成功反映在我們的財務表現中。第二財季的非 GAAP 業績超出或處於我們 10 月提供的指導範圍的高端。該季度總營收為 30 億美元，季增 10%，年減 2%。非 GAAP 每股虧損為 0.69 美元，因為我們廣泛的上市管道的強大執行力有利於快速平均售價和毛利率。

Looking at end markets, cloud represented 35% of total revenue at $1.1 billion, up 23% sequentially and down 13% year-over-year. Sequentially, the growth is attributed to higher nearline shipments to data center customers and better nearline pricing. Nearline bit shipments were 67 exabytes, up 23%. The year-over-year decrease was due to lower eSSD bit shipments.

從終端市場來看，雲端收入佔總營收的 35%，達到 11 億美元，季增 23%，年減 13%。其次，成長歸因於資料中心客戶的近線出貨量增加以及近線定價的改善。近線位出貨量為 67 艾字節，成長 23%。年比下降是由於 eSSD 位出貨量下降。

On a year-over-year basis, HDD cloud revenue increased for the first time in 6 quarters. Client represented 37% of total revenue at $1.1 billion, down 2% sequentially and up 3% year-over-year. Sequentially, an increase in flash ASP was more than offset by a decline in flash bit shipments. The year-over-year increase was due to higher flash shipments primarily driven by client SSD shipments into PC applications more than offsetting a decline in ASP. Consumer represented 28% of total revenue at $0.8 billion, up 15% sequentially and 6% year-over-year. Sequentially, the growth was primarily due to seasonal strength in flash bit shipments. On a year-over-year basis, the increase in flash bit shipments was partially offset by a decline in flash ASP as well as lower HDD shipments.

年比來看，HDD雲端營收6季以來首次成長。客戶營收為 11 億美元，佔總營收的 37%，較上季下降 2%，較去年同期成長 3%。隨後，快閃記憶體平均售價的成長被快閃記憶體位出貨量的下降所抵銷。年比成長的原因是快閃記憶體出貨量增加，這主要是由 PC 應用領域的客戶端 SSD 出貨量所推動的，這足以抵消平均售價的下降。消費者營收為 8 億美元，佔總營收的 28%，季增 15%，年增 6%。接下來，成長主要是由於快閃記憶體位出貨量的季節性強勁。與去年同期相比，快閃記憶體位出貨量的成長被快閃記憶體平均售價的下降以及硬碟出貨量的下降部分抵消。

Turning now to revenue by business segment. In the fiscal second quarter, Flash revenue was $1.7 billion, growing 7% sequentially as flash ASPs increased 10% on a blended basis and 7% on a like-for-like basis, stronger than anticipated entering the quarter. Bit shipments decreased 2% after record shipments in the prior quarter. On a year-over-year basis, flash revenue grew slightly with a 21% increase in bit shipments offsetting lower prices.

現在轉向按業務部門劃分的收入。在第二財季，快閃記憶體收入為 17 億美元，季增 7%，快閃 ASP 混合成長 10%，年成長 7%，強於進入本季的預期。繼上一季創紀錄的出貨量之後，比特出貨量下降了 2%。與去年同期相比，快閃記憶體收入略有增長，位出貨量增長了 21%，抵消了價格下降的影響。

HDD revenue was $1.4 billion, increasing 14% sequentially as total exabyte shipments increased 14% and average price per unit increased 9% to $122. On a year-over-year basis, HDD revenue declined 6%, while total exabyte shipments increased 2% and average price per unit increased 23%.

HDD 營收為 14 億美元，季增 14%，艾字節總出貨量成長 14%，單位平均價格成長 9%，達到 122 美元。與去年同期相比，HDD 收入下降了 6%，而艾字節總出貨量增加了 2%，單位平均價格增加了 23%。

Moving to gross margin and expenses. Please note, my comments will be related to non-GAAP results unless stated otherwise. Gross margin was 15.5%, above the guidance range provided in October and improving 11.4 percentage points sequentially while declining 1.9 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential increase was primarily driven by higher flash ASPs as we proactively optimized product mix, which more than offset higher than anticipated underutilization charges of $156 million or a 5.1 percentage points headwind.

轉向毛利率和費用。請注意，除非另有說明，我的評論將與非公認會計準則結果相關。毛利率為 15.5%，高於 10 月提供的指導範圍，季增 11.4 個百分點，但年減 1.9 個百分點。環比成長主要是由於我們主動優化產品組合而提高的快閃記憶體平均售價，這足以抵消高於預期的 1.56 億美元的未充分利用費用，即 5.1 個百分點的逆風。

Flash gross margin was higher than expected at 7.9%, up 18.2 percentage points sequentially and down 6.6 percentage points year-over-year. This includes underutilization charges of $107 million or a 6.4 percentage points headwind to gross margin. HDD gross margin was 24.8%, up 1.9 percentage points sequentially and 4.1 percentage points year-over-year. This includes underutilization charges of $49 million or a 3.6 percentage point headwind.

快閃記憶體毛利率高於預期，為 7.9%，較上季上升 18.2 個百分點，較去年同期下降 6.6 個百分點。其中包括 1.07 億美元的未充分利用費用，即毛利率下降 6.4 個百分點。硬碟毛利率為24.8%，較上季上升1.9個百分點，較去年同期上升4.1個百分點。其中包括 4,900 萬美元的未充分利用費用或 3.6 個百分點的逆風。

We continue to tightly manage operating expenses, which were $561 million for the quarter, down 15% year-over-year and at the lower end of the guidance range. Operating loss in the quarter was $91 million, which included underutilization charges of $156 million. Fiscal second quarter loss per share was $0.69, inclusive of a $14 million dividend associated with the convertible preferred shares. Operating cash flow for the second quarter was an outflow of $92 million, and free cash flow was an outflow of $176 million.

我們繼續嚴格管理營運費用，本季營運費用為 5.61 億美元，年減 15%，處於指導範圍的下限。本季營運虧損為 9,100 萬美元，其中包括 1.56 億美元的未充分利用費用。第二財季每股虧損為 0.69 美元，其中包括與可轉換優先股相關的 1,400 萬美元股息。第二季營運現金流流出 9,200 萬美元，自由現金流流出 1.76 億美元。

Cash capital expenditures, which include the purchase of property, plant and equipment, and activity related to our flash joint ventures on the cash flow statement, represented a cash outflow of $84 million. The quarter ending inventory was $3.2 billion, declining $281 million from the prior quarter. Days of inventory decreased 5 days to 115 days. The majority of the decline was in flash, where flash days of inventory remained at a 4-year low.

現金資本支出（包括購買財產、廠房和設備，以及現金流量表中與我們的快閃記憶體合資企業相關的活動）代表現金流出 8,400 萬美元。季末庫存為 32 億美元，比上一季減少 2.81 億美元。庫存天數減少 5 天至 115 天。大部分下降發生在閃現中，庫存閃現天數仍處於 4 年來的最低水準。

During the quarter, we issued $1.6 billion in convertible notes, repurchased $508 million of the outstanding 2024 convertible notes and paid down $300 million of the delayed-draw term loan. Gross debt outstanding was $8.5 billion at the end of the fiscal second quarter. We expect to retire the remaining balance of approximately $600 million of the 2024 convertible notes at maturity in February 2024.

本季度，我們發行了 16 億美元的可轉換票據，回購了 5.08 億美元未償還的 2024 年可轉換票據，並償還了 3 億美元的延遲提取定期貸款。截至第二財季末，未償債務總額為 85 億美元。我們預計將於 2024 年 2 月到期時註銷 2024 年可轉換票據的剩餘餘額約 6 億美元。

At the end of the fiscal second quarter, cash and cash equivalents were $2.5 billion, and total liquidity was $4.7 billion, including the undrawn revolver capacity of $2.25 billion. For the fiscal third quarter, our non-GAAP guidance is as follows. We expect revenue to be in the range of $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion. We expect sequential revenue growth to be mainly driven by an increase in HDD. We anticipate flash revenue to be up slightly as we remain focused on optimizing bit shipments and ASP.

截至第二財季末，現金及現金等價物為25億美元，流動性總額為47億美元，其中包括未提取的循環資金22.5億美元。對於第三財季，我們的非公認會計準則指引如下。我們預計營收將在 32 億美元至 34 億美元之間。我們預計營收環比成長將主要由硬碟的成長推動。我們預計快閃記憶體收入將略有成長，因為我們仍然專注於優化位元出貨量和平均售價。

We expect gross margin to be between 22% and 24%, which includes HDD underutilization charges of $30 million to $40 million. We expect operating expenses to be between $600 million and $620 million, with the increase driven by the reinstatement of certain incentive compensation programs as the financial outlook has strengthened. Interest and other expenses are expected to be approximately $95 million. We continue to expect income tax expenses to be between $20 million and $30 million for fiscal third quarter and $80 million to $120 million for fiscal year 2024. We expect a preferred dividend of $15 million. We expect earnings per share to be $0.05, plus or minus $0.15, based on approximately 330 million shares outstanding.

我們預計毛利率將在 22% 至 24% 之間，其中包括 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元的 HDD 未充分利用費用。我們預計營運支出將在 6 億至 6.2 億美元之間，隨著財務前景的轉好，某些激勵性薪酬計畫的恢復將推動營運支出的成長。利息和其他費用預計約為 9500 萬美元。我們仍預期第三財季所得稅費用將在 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元之間，2024 財年所得稅費用將在 8,000 萬至 1.2 億美元之間。我們預計優先股股利為 1,500 萬美元。基於約 3.3 億股流通股，我們預期每股收益為 0.05 美元，正負 0.15 美元。

As the financial outlook has improved, we will remain disciplined in executing the business, proactively managing our supply and inventory to meet customer end demand, and controlling capital spending, all with the goal of improving profitability. I'll now turn the call back over to David.

隨著財務前景的改善，我們將繼續嚴格執行業務，積極管理供應和庫存以滿足客戶最終需求，並控制資本支出，所有這些都是為了提高獲利能力。我現在將把電話轉回給大衛。

Thanks, Wissam. Let me wrap up, and then we'll open up for questions. I want to emphasize that the steps the Western Digital team has taken to instill and deploy an industry-leading product portfolio, while also moving quickly to adapt to both volatile market dynamics and anticipate future trends, have enabled us to capitalize on the upswing we see ahead. Through our product leadership and ability to dampen business cycles and improve through-cycle profitability, I am confident we are well positioned to execute on our current strategy, which will reaffirm our strength over the long term. Let's now begin the Q&A.

謝謝，維薩姆。讓我總結一下，然後我們將開始提問。我想強調的是，西部數據團隊為灌輸和部署行業領先的產品組合所採取的步驟，同時也迅速適應波動的市場動態和預測未來趨勢，使我們能夠充分利用我們所看到的經濟成長先。透過我們的產品領先地位以及抑製商業週期和提高整個週期獲利能力的能力，我相信我們有能力執行當前的策略，這將重申我們的長期實力。現在讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Joe Moore。

I wonder if you could talk about the gross margin improvement in Q1. I guess, how do you apportion that between the drive business and the NAND business? And I guess I'm -- I would think with being judicious on volume, you get some pretty good NAND pricing. I guess I might have expected a little bit more gross margin improvement, so just curious what I'm missing there.

我不知道你能否談談第一季毛利率的改善情況。我想，你如何在驅動器業務和NAND業務之間分配？我想我認為，只要在數量上保持明智，你就會得到一些相當不錯的 NAND 定價。我想我可能期望毛利率會有所提高，所以只是好奇我在那裡錯過了什麼。

Yes, Joe. So we've been -- it's good to see the pricing inflect. If you look into Q1, we were happy with the gross margin we delivered in the Flash business in the December quarter at 7.9%. I think we were able to capture the turn in the market well. So that gives us a little higher base going into the March quarter. But if you look at the bulk businesses, you see flash will be down on bits and up on price. So we see -- we still see strong price increases quarter-to-quarter, but we're down on volume. Let's call it low double digits. And then in the HDD business, we see increase in volume and increase in price.

是的，喬。所以我們很高興看到定價的變化。如果你看看第一季度，我們對 12 月季度快閃記憶體業務的毛利率為 7.9% 感到滿意。我認為我們能夠很好地抓住市場的轉變。因此，這為我們進入三月季度提供了更高的基數。但如果你看看大宗業務，你會發現快閃記憶體的位數會下降，而價格會上升。所以我們看到——我們仍然看到價格逐季度強勁上漲，但銷量有所下降。我們稱之為低兩位數。然後在硬碟業務中，我們看到數量的增加和價格的上漲。

Our next question comes from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

Yes. Just kind of building off that last question. I know you talked about the hard disk drive underutilization expectation in this current quarter kind of embedded in that 22% to 24% guide. What's the underutilization assumption you're making on the Flash business? And just in general, how do you think about the trajectory of flash gross margin? Let's say, in theory of pricing and your implementation of price increases continues, how do we think about the return to kind of a 30%-plus gross margin in flash? So just trying to think about the puts and takes in the guidance and then the longer term kind of you back to what you'd characterize as normalized gross margin.

是的。只是在最後一個問題的基礎上進行。我知道您談到了本季硬碟利用率不足的預期，該預期嵌入在 22% 至 24% 的指導中。您對 Flash 業務的未充分利用假設是什麼？總的來說，您如何看待快閃記憶體毛利率的軌跡？比方說，從定價理論和你們繼續實施漲價的角度來看，我們如何看待 Flash 毛利率恢復到 30% 以上的情況？因此，只需考慮指導中的看跌期權和買入期權，然後從長期來看，您就會回到您所描述的標準化毛利率。

Thanks, Aaron. So for flash in our guide, we don't have underutilization for Q3. In fact, we executed ahead of schedule and reached our targeted supply and inventory goals faster than what we anticipated. And so as you know, we continue to dynamically manage supply and inventory to meet our end demand. And so the fab utilization reflects that. If you recall, in our results in Q1, flash inventory was down almost $400 million. Last quarter, we saw another over $200 million decline in inventory. We exited the quarter at levels we haven't seen in a few years. So having said that, obviously, we will continue to be disciplined in how we manage our supply and inventory to meet end customer demand on flash and also, of course, control our capital spend. With respect to your question at the 30%, let me clarify. Was your question the 30% on the Flash or on the HDD side?

謝謝，亞倫。因此，對於我們指南中的閃存，我們在第三季並未發現未充分利用的情況。事實上，我們提前執行了計劃，並比我們預期更快地實現了供應和庫存目標。如您所知，我們將繼續動態管理供應和庫存，以滿足我們的最終需求。因此，晶圓廠的利用率反映了這一點。如果你還記得，在我們第一季的業績中，快閃存貨減少了近 4 億美元。上個季度，我們的庫存又減少了 2 億多美元。本季結束時，我們達到了幾年來從未見過的水平。因此，話雖如此，顯然我們將繼續嚴格管理供應和庫存，以滿足最終客戶對快閃記憶體的需求，當然也要控制我們的資本支出。關於你提到的30%的問題，我來澄清一下。您的問題是 Flash 方面的 30% 還是 HDD 面向？

Well, I guess, I'm going to say both, but it was in flash.

好吧，我想，我會說兩者，但它是在閃光中。

Yes, I thought I heard you say flash. I was going to start talking about it. Well, let me start talking about HDD. Look, at HDD, we're pretty much very close to that level. When you look at what we delivered in the second quarter and when you also look at the guide, it does reflect continuous margin improvement on the HDD side. And so I also anticipate that there should be continuous improvement as the recovery continues in that business, so a 30% is very much within reach. And we should be able to achieve it pretty soon.

是的，我想我聽到你說閃光。我正要開始談論它。好吧，讓我開始談論HDD。看看 HDD，我們已經非常接近這個水平了。當您查看我們在第二季交付的內容以及指南時，它確實反映出硬碟的利潤率持續改善。因此，我還預計，隨著該業務的持續復甦，應該會不斷改進，因此 30% 是非常容易實現的。我們應該很快就能實現這個目標。

On the flash side, the -- a lot has to do with continuing to optimize the product mix to drive that ASP up and also, of course, continuing to deliver on our cost reduction. And so on the cost reduction, we've done well so far. We've been in the mid-teens. I expect us to also hit that mid-teens percentage cost reduction for this fiscal year. So as the pricing continues to improve, I would anticipate that we would be -- we would also be there in the -- let's say, in the next few quarters.

在快閃記憶體方面，很大程度上與繼續優化產品組合以提高平均售價有關，當然，還要繼續降低成本。所以在降低成本方面，到目前為止我們做得很好。我們已經十幾歲了。我預計本財年我們也能實現百分之十左右的成本削減。因此，隨著定價的不斷提高，我預計我們也會在接下來的幾個季度內實現這一目標。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Cantor Fitzgerald.

我們的下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 和 Cantor Fitzgerald。

I guess, I was hoping to focus on the NAND bit side of the house. You're talking about optimizing product mix. But here, we have bits down in December. It looks like they're down -- implied down again in the March quarter. So can you speak to, I guess, your plans there? When do you think that will open up? And can you be a little more specific in terms of which end markets you're focused on? And how we should think about when they come to market and the timing and implications to pricing?

我想，我希望專注於 NAND 位元方面。您正在談論優化產品組合。但在這裡，我們在 12 月遇到了一些麻煩。看起來它們在下降——暗示在三月季度再次下降。我想你能談談你在那裡的計劃嗎？你認為什麼時候會開放？您能否更具體地說明您關注的終端市場？我們應該如何考慮它們何時上市以及其定價的時機和影響？

Yes. So I'll start, and Wissam can add some, too. So yes, we had bits down. We had a record quarter last -- 2 quarters ago, and then we were down a little bit this past quarter, then we'll be down more. I mean it's just a reflection of the flow-through, the underutilization that we were doing to kind of keep supply and demand matched. We've talked about this a lot and not let our inventory get out of control. I think we've been very good about keeping our inventory. We're at a 4-year low on inventory on the NAND side. So look, C.J., we're just going to keep very focused on what demand is, where we're at in inventory and adjust the utilization of the fab to make sure those stay aligned as we go forward. So I think as we said in the script, you kind of assume that throughout this calendar year, you're going to see most of the growth in flash be from pricing. As far as -- go ahead, please. No, I was going to move on the second part of your question.

是的。那我就開始吧，Wissam 也可以再增加一些。所以，是的，我們有一些不足之處。上個季度（兩個季度前）我們創下了創紀錄的季度業績，然後上個季度我們的業績略有下降，然後還會下降更多。我的意思是，這只是我們為維持供需匹配所做的流通和利用不足的反映。我們已經討論過很多次了，不會讓我們的庫存失控。我認為我們在保持庫存方面做得很好。我們的 NAND 庫存處於 4 年來的最低水準。所以，C.J.，我們將繼續非常關注需求是什麼、我們的庫存狀況，並調整晶圓廠的利用率，以確保這些在我們前進的過程中保持一致。因此，我認為正如我們在腳本中所說，您會假設在整個日曆年中，您將看到快閃記憶體的大部分增長來自定價。至於——請繼續。不，我要繼續討論你問題的第二部分。

Yes. Please, go ahead.

是的。請繼續。

Okay. So mix is like -- mix is just a very dynamic process like literally day by day, week by week in the business. We have a big consumer franchise. We sell all over the world. We have hundreds of thousands of points of presence in e-tail platforms. We have a big channel business where pricing can get adjusted weekly, then all the way up to, obviously, the quarterly negotiated market. So we're just always dynamically understanding where pricing is going to be. And then, again, in each of those segments, we have different products. We have client SSDs that are WD_BLACK, all the way down to WD Green. So in different segments of the market, all with different price points, all with different margins, all with different demand profiles.

好的。所以混合就像——混合只是一個非常動態的過程，就像業務中的日復一日、週復一周一樣。我們擁有龐大的消費者特許經營權。我們銷往世界各地。我們在電子零售平台上擁有數十萬個存在點。我們擁有龐大的通路業務，定價可以每週調整，然後一直調整到季度協商市場。因此，我們總是動態地了解定價的情況​​。然後，同樣，在每個細分市場中，我們都有不同的產品。我們的客戶端 SSD 為 WD_BLACK，一直到 WD Green。因此，在不同的市場領域，都有不同的價格點、不同的利潤率、不同的需求狀況。

And it's a constant process of just making sure we put the supply where we're going to get the best return. This last quarter, we talked about we mixed a little bit out of client and into consumer, as you would expect in a strong consumer quarter, and we'll continue to do that. The place where we're still waiting for it to come back is enterprise SSD. That's still been pretty depressed. And as that market starts to come back, we expect to mix into that as well.

這是一個持續的過程，確保我們將供應放在能夠獲得最佳回報的地方。上個季度，我們談到我們將一些客戶和消費者混合在一起，正如您在強勁的消費者季度中所期望的那樣，我們將繼續這樣做。我們仍在等待它回歸的地方是企業級SSD。那心情還是挺鬱悶的。隨著該市場開始復甦，我們預計也會參與其中。

Very helpful. If I could ask just a quick follow-up, Wissam, can you shed some light on how to think about OpEx into June quarter and beyond?

很有幫助。如果我可以問一個快速的後續問題，Wissam，您能否闡明如何思考 6 月季度及以後的營運支出？

Yes. Of course, C.J. So on the OpEx side, for the June quarter, I expect us to be more or less in line. Beyond that, as the business profitability continues to improve, I expect a gradual increase. But we're laser focused on profitability, and so I don't anticipate to increase our OpEx faster than revenue growth, of course. And when you look at where we've come from and where we are today, we're still at or maybe more than 20% lower than where we were at the beginning of the cyclical downturn.

是的。當然，C.J. 因此，在營運支出方面，對於六月季度，我預計我們或多或少會保持一致。除此之外，隨著業務獲利能力的不斷改善，我預期會逐步增加。但我們非常關注獲利能力，因此我預期營運支出的成長速度不會快於收入的成長速度。當你看到我們的起點和今天的處境時，你會發現我們仍然比週期性衰退開始時低 20% 以上，甚至可能低 20% 以上。

Our next question comes from Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的卡爾·阿克曼。

I have 2, if I may. The first, why do you think there was a doubling of China demand for [via] applications this quarter? And how sustainable do you think that is? I asked because the Chinese economy hasn't been robust for some time, so any thoughts on that would be helpful.

如果可以的話，我有 2 個。首先，您認為為什麼本季中國對應用程式的需求翻了一番？您認為這有多可持續？我問這個問題是因為中國經濟已經有一段時間不強勁了，所以對此的任何想法都會有所幫助。

Yes. I wouldn't attribute it to the smart video market. It's more of the China hyperscalers coming back and better demand there.

是的。我不會將其歸因於智慧視訊市場。更多的中國超大規模企業回來了，那裡的需求也更好了。

Got it. Okay. I guess to switch to the manufacturers, if I may. It's nice to see an improving outlook for March, certainly one quarter ahead of many of our expectations. However, I'm a bit surprised to see your NAND ASP trajectory in December below that of peers. So is there any reason why your NAND prices or ASPs perhaps would fall behind peers from here and/or maybe there would be a catch-up opportunity as well?

知道了。好的。如果可以的話，我想轉向製造商。很高興看到 3 月的前景有所改善，肯定比我們的許多預期提前了四分之一。然而，我有點驚訝地發現 12 月 NAND ASP 軌跡低於同行。那麼，是否有任何原因導致您的 NAND 價格或 ASP 可能會落後於同行，並且/或者可能還有追趕的機會？

Yes, price deltas, obviously, have a big dependency on your starting point, and we were starting from a better gross margin position than anybody else in the industry by quite a bit. So -- and then on top of that, you have mix based on what's happening in the quarter and kind of where the product is going. I think if you look at profitability of the franchise, it's still leading the industry.

是的，顯然，價格增量在很大程度上取決於您的起點，而且我們的毛利率水平比業內其他任何人都好得多。因此，最重要的是，您可以根據本季發生的情況以及產品的發展方向進行組合。我認為如果你看看特許經營的盈利能力，它仍然領先於行業。

Our next question comes from Tim O'Malley with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的蒂姆·奧馬利。

It's Tom O'Malley here at Barclays. So I wanted to ask on the competitive environment. Your competitor, obviously, talked about 1 million unit shipments of HAMR in the first half of the calendar year here. I just wanted to get your comments on, are you seeing any change in your interactions with your customers? Are they pointing to HAMR as a solution that they're going to move to early in the year? Can you just talk to just the broader ecosystem and if you're seeing a transition there? Or if it's the other side really, clearly, you're seeing some better trends with your UltraSMR drives. Just any color on that transition with your customers would be helpful.

我是巴克萊銀行的湯姆‧奧馬利。所以我想問一下競爭環境。顯然，您的競爭對手在這裡談到了今年上半年 HAMR 的出貨量為 100 萬台。我只是想聽聽您的意見，您發現與客戶的互動有什麼改變嗎？他們是否將 HAMR 作為他們將在今年年初轉向的解決方案？您能談談更廣泛的生態系統嗎？您是否看到了那裡的轉變？或者，如果確實是另一面，很明顯，您會看到 UltraSMR 驅動器出現一些更好的趨勢。與客戶的過渡中的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

I think customers just want to understand everybody's road map, right, and they're not looking for a particular solution. I mean, for example, we've been shipping ePMR drives for years versus PMR drives, and nobody really asks us for ePMR drives. So they just want the capacity point at a TCO, at a reliability level and be able to satisfy their demand. And I think that's the way we've optimized our portfolio. We've commercialized ePMR. We're very happy with the technology. We have UltraSMR on top of that. That allows us to deliver both the highest capacity points in the industry, the best TCO position at very, very large scale, right? We can produce millions and millions of those drives per quarter.

我認為客戶只是想了解每個人的路線圖，對吧，他們並不是在尋找特定的解決方案。我的意思是，例如，我們多年來一直在銷售 ePMR 驅動器，而不是 PMR 驅動器，但沒有人真正要求我們提供 ePMR 驅動器。因此，他們只需要 TCO 內的容量點、可靠性等級並且能夠滿足他們的需求。我認為這就是我們優化投資組合的方式。我們已經將 ePMR 商業化。我們對這項技術非常滿意。除此之外，我們還有 UltraSMR。這使我們能夠在非常非常大的規模上提供業界最高的容量點和最佳的 TCO 位置，對嗎？我們每季可以生產數百萬個這樣的驅動器。

So that's what customers are looking for, and they're looking to understand on your road map that you can continue to drive that TCO equation forward because they're obviously betting extremely large data centers on our ability to do that. And our customers -- I can tell you, our customers have an enormous amount of confidence in our road map in our current products, and you're seeing that in the performance of the business. You're seeing accelerating growth. You're seeing better profitability. You're seeing share gains. That's a clear indication that customers are very happy with our products.

這就是客戶所尋求的，他們希望在您的路線圖上了解您可以繼續推動 TCO 方程式向前發展，因為他們顯然將巨大的資料中心押注於我們的能力。我們的客戶—我可以告訴你，我們的客戶對我們目前產品的路線圖充滿信心，你可以從業務表現中看到這一點。您會看到成長加速。您會看到更好的盈利能力。你會看到股票收益。這清楚地表明客戶對我們的產品非常滿意。

Now, in particular, on the transition of ePMR to HAMR, I know this has gotten a lot of attention. For our portfolio given our UltraSMR technology, it's been adopted by the market. HAMR does not make sense until you get to 4 terabytes per platter because HAMR adds a lot of cost to the product. So it adds a lot of cost to your bill of material. So we can -- we see the next couple of generations or a couple of years of ability to deliver a very strong TCO proposition at scale on the ePMR plus UltraSMR platform that customers have clearly adopted. We see it as the majority of our demand in calendar year '25. We will transition to HAMR when we get to that 4 terabytes per platter. That's the economic crossover, right, that we're looking for from a portfolio management point of view. So that gives you a little more color on how we're thinking about the technology, the transition and how customers are thinking about it. I think -- it's very clear. Customers are very happy with our road map, and they understand in great detail where we're going.

現在，特別是在 ePMR 向 HAMR 的過渡方面，我知道這已經引起了很多關注。對於我們的產品組合，鑑於我們的 UltraSMR 技術，它已被市場採用。在每盤容量達到 4 TB 之前，HAMR 才有意義，因為 HAMR 會增加產品的大量成本。因此，它會增加您的物料清單成本。因此，我們可以——我們看到未來幾代或幾年有能力在客戶明確採用的 ePMR 和 UltraSMR 平台上大規模提供非常強大的 TCO 主張。我們認為這是我們 25 日曆年的大部分需求。當每盤容量達到 4 TB 時，我們將過渡到 HAMR。這就是我們從投資組合管理角度尋找的經濟交叉點，對吧。因此，這讓您對我們如何看待技術、轉型以及客戶如何看待它有了更多的了解。我認為——這非常清楚。客戶對我們的路線圖非常滿意，他們非常詳細地了解我們的發展方向。

Perfect. And then just one quick one on HDD gross margins. I think when you look at the underutilization charges that are still present, you can look at just taking that out and what that means for the gross margins over the next couple of quarters. But is there any way to frame like a revenue level that gets you back to that 30% gross margin target for the HDD business? Or is it kind of just a wait and see when utilization picks back up and it will get there eventually? Any just way to frame that from a modeling perspective as to when that can get back to your range?

完美的。然後簡單介紹一下硬碟毛利率。我認為，當您查看仍然存在的未充分利用費用時，您可以考慮將其剔除，以及這對未來幾季的毛利率意味著什麼。但有沒有什麼方法可以製定收入水平，讓您回到 HDD 業務 30% 的毛利率目標？或者只是等待利用率回升並最終達到目標？有沒有什麼簡單的方法可以從建模的角度來確定何時可以回到您的範圍？

So Tom, if you look at our numbers and you adjust for the underutilization charges, we're almost there. So what I would say -- instead of giving a number or movement, let's say, in quantifying it, what I would say is I expect us to be at the 30% level, at a lower level than our normal run rate that we've had in any prior through-cycle periods. We've taken quite a bit of cost out of our cost structure, as you very well know. And so that will help us get there at a faster pace. With respect to underutilization, I do anticipate to probably have a bit more -- another quarter of underutilization beyond this one. And then we'll see where we are in the June quarter, and then we can talk about it then.

湯姆，如果你看看我們的數字並根據未充分利用的費用進行調整，我們就快到了。所以我想說的是——與其給出一個數字或變動，不如說，在量化它時，我想說的是，我希望我們處於 30% 的水平，低於我們正常運行率的水平。在之前的任何週期都曾經歷過。正如您所熟知的，我們從成本結構中削減了相當多的成本。這將幫助我們更快地實現這一目標。關於未充分利用的情況，我確實預計可能還會有更多的情況——除此之外還有四分之一的未充分利用。然後我們會看看六月季度的情況，然後我們就可以討論這個問題。

The next question comes from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen。

Two of them. The first one on NAND. Either Dave or Wissam, how do you think of the sustainability of NAND pricing into the back half given that there's a view that first half pricing could be up from a calendar year base, calendar close [of we have] over 50%. How do you think about the sustainability? And what would be the trigger point for you to start adding capacity in that? And then just a sort of follow-up on the hard drive side, you kind of mentioned HAMR adds cost, which kind of makes a lot of sense given the laser and NFT. Very curious, whenever you start doing it, would you do it with 10 disks? And if the market wants a HAMR solution from WD, how soon can you get it?

他們兩個人。第一個關於 NAND 的。無論是 Dave 還是 Wissam，您如何看待下半年 NAND 定價的可持續性，因為有觀點認為上半年定價可能較日曆年基數（日曆收盤價）上漲超過 50%。您如何看待永續性？您開始增加容量的觸發點是什麼？然後只是硬碟的一種後續行動，你提到 HAMR 增加了成本，考慮到雷射和 NFT，這很有意義。很好奇，每當你開始做的時候，你會用10個磁碟來做嗎？如果市場需要 WD 的 HAMR 解決方案，多久可以得到？

Okay. There's a lot in there. So on NAND, look, what we -- we obviously look at a lot of things in NAND. There's a lot of stuff that goes into supply of NAND, from utilization rates to nodal transitions to CapEx investment. And it's a complicated equation. But our current view is we see NAND undersupplied for quite some time in the market, and that's appropriate given where we are in the profitability of the business. As I said in the prepared remarks, look, we're happy to see the inflection in pricing and the performance of the business, and it's ahead of where we thought it was going to be. But we've got a long way to go before we're going to get to the profitability levels where we're going to -- where investment is going to come back.

好的。裡面有很多東西。因此，在 NAND 上，我們顯然會關注 NAND 中的許多東西。 NAND 供應涉及許多因素，從利用率到節點過渡再到資本支出投資。這是一個複雜的方程式。但我們目前的觀點是，我們看到 NAND 在市場上相當長一段時間內供應不足，考慮到我們的業務盈利能力，這是適當的。正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們很高興看到定價和業務表現的變化，而且它超出了我們的預期。但要達到投資回報的獲利水平，我們還有很長的路要走。

And I think the answer to your question, we need very clear visibility into through-cycle profitability numbers that match our model. And we're coming out of a deep hole, and that would imply that you need to be above your through-cycle level for a while to get to that level over time. So that's what we're looking at, and we expect pricing to -- pricing is notoriously difficult to predict, and we're very careful that we don't forecast it. But clearly, we're predicting good pricing increases into the next quarter, and we will stay very disciplined of managing supply and demand in our business. We talked about that bits are down sequentially. On HDD -- I'm sorry, could you just repeat the HDD question again so that I make sure I got it?

我認為你的問題的答案是，我們需要非常清楚地了解與我們的模型相匹配的整個週期的盈利能力數據。我們正從一個深坑中走出來，這意味著你需要在整個週期水平之上一段時間，才能隨著時間的推移達到該水平。這就是我們正在關注的，我們預計定價是眾所周知的，定價是很難預測的，我們非常小心，不預測它。但顯然，我們預計下一季的價格將會上漲，並且我們將嚴格管理業務的供需。我們討論過位是按順序下降的。關於硬碟 - 抱歉，您能否再次重複硬碟問題，以便我確保我明白了？

Yes. Sure, Dave. I was just trying to figure out on the HDD side, a -- number one is HAMR. Will you be doing it with 10 disks? Second one is if the market wants a solution -- from Western Digital a HAMR solution, how soon can you get it out?

是的。當然，戴夫。我只是想弄清楚在 HDD 方面，排名第一的是 HAMR。你會用 10 個磁碟來做嗎？第二個問題是，如果市場需要一個解決方案——西部數據的HAMR解決方案，你多久能推出？

Yes. So let me -- we'll defer the details of product launch on HAMR and how many disks it's going to have until we get closer to that process. I mean it's a project that we're happy with where the progress of it is given what I said earlier. We've got -- we've built a technology road map that allows us to get to 40 terabytes on very well-proven, cost-controlled, high manufacturing ability, technology. And we're looking forward to delivering that to the market over the next couple of years.

是的。所以讓我——我們將推遲 HAMR 上產品發布的細節以及它將擁有多少磁碟，直到我們接近這個過程。我的意思是，正如我之前所說，我們對這個專案的進展感到滿意。我們已經制定了技術路線圖，使我們能夠利用經過充分驗證、成本控制、高製造能力的技術達到 40 TB。我們期待在未來幾年內將其推向市場。

The reality is there's no customer like demands a particular technology. The customer wants a capacity point at a certain TCO, at a certain level of reliability and a certain level of performance. And our technology road map is built to deliver that. What's inside the box is less important. The real thing is you have to deliver all of those that we just said, and you have to be able to manufacture it at a level of millions and millions of units per quarter to satisfy the market. That's what our customers are looking for. Our ePMR and UltraSMR technology, that's exactly what it delivers. The ability to deliver increasing TCO, which, if we can deliver increasing TCO, we can continue to drive pricing higher. We can produce it at very high scale, can be qualified very, very quickly and it's very highly reliable and high-quality products. And our customers are increasingly adopting that technology as you see from our forecast.

現實情況是，沒有哪個客戶需要特定的技術。客戶希望容量點具有一定的 TCO、一定的可靠性和一定的性能水準。我們的技術路線圖就是為了實現這一目標而建構的。盒子裡裝的是什麼並不那麼重要。真正的事情是你必須提供我們剛才所說的所有這些，並且你必須能夠以每季數百萬件的水平製造它才能滿足市場。這就是我們的客戶正在尋找的。我們的 ePMR 和 UltraSMR 技術正是它所提供的。能夠提高 TCO，如果我們能夠提高 TCO，我們就可以繼續推高定價。我們可以大規模生產，可以非常非常快速地合格，並且是非常可靠的高品質產品。正如您從我們的預測中看到的那樣，我們的客戶越來越多地採用該技術。

The next question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的瓦姆西·莫漢 (Wamsi Mohan)。

Dave, appreciate the answer you just gave around pricing. But if I could ask this a slightly different way, how would you think about pricing, the runway that you have in flash relative to past cycles? I mean given your commentary on how you manage your inventory, given your comments on expectation to be undersupplied for a long time, would you venture to say that the pricing runway that you have should be longer than what you've had in past cycles?

戴夫，感謝您剛剛就定價問題給出的答案。但如果我能以稍微不同的方式問這個問題，你會如何看待定價，以及相對於過去週期的快閃跑道？我的意思是，考慮到您對如何管理庫存的評論，考慮到您對長期供應不足的預期的評論，您是否敢說您的定價跑道應該比過去週期更長？

On NAND?

在 NAND 上？

Yes.

是的。

Look, I mean, I think it's -- the cycle we just -- I guess we're not out of it. We're coming out of it. Like I said, like we're just taking the first steps out of a cycle we haven't seen before, I think, in the 3D era. So what we're doing, Wamsi, is just making sure we get our supply and demand matched and make sure we keep our inventory control and deliver the best profitability given the portfolio we have and continue to optimize the portfolio that we can have the best mix and therefore the best profitability. It's very difficult to predict future pricing. But our general point is that although things are going in the right direction, we're not close to a point where the CapEx investment is going to come back. And I think that's the real number on what future supply is going to be. I mean, clearly, there's some utilization that is going to come back, but it's going to be needed, quite frankly. And we're going to wait to see on, as I said, through-cycle profitability, where we have visibility to that to reinvest more in this business.

聽著，我的意思是，我認為這是——我們剛剛的周期——我想我們還沒有擺脫它。我們正在走出困境。就像我說的，我們只是邁出了 3D 時代我們以前從未見過的循環的第一步。因此，Wamsi，我們正在做的只是確保我們的供應和需求相匹配，並確保我們保持庫存控制並根據我們擁有的投資組合提供最佳的盈利能力，並繼續優化我們可以擁有的最佳投資組合混合，因此獲得最佳的獲利能力。預測未來的定價非常困難。但我們的總體觀點是，儘管事情正在朝著正確的方向發展，但我們還沒有接近資本支出投資回報的地步。我認為這就是未來供應的真實數字。我的意思是，很明顯，一些利用率將會回來，但坦白說，這是需要的。正如我所說，我們將等待觀察整個週期的獲利能力，我們可以看到這一點，以便對這項業務進行更多的再投資。

Okay. If I could, you mentioned about entering a multiyear growth period with generative AI and especially at the edge, the demand for NAND bits. When do you think that the industry will start to see this demand for NAND bits at the edge start to inflect higher?

好的。如果可以的話，您提到了生成式人工智慧進入多年增長期，特別是在邊緣，對 NAND 位元的需求。您認為業界何時會開始看到對邊緣 NAND 位元的需求開始上升？

Yes. Look, I think we're going to see it as we start to go into PC refresh cycles, admitted that we're still very early in this, right? Getting the cloud -- I mean, the big part right now is getting the cloud capable of delivering gen AI to all of us and then drive that architecture down to the edge. I think we're starting to see in some of the markets some of the future specs of products where they're increasing the amount of NAND. So we're optimistic about that as we go through the next couple of years and this architecture gets deployed and adopted. So I can't like put it down to a particular quarter for you. But certainly, as new technology launches or new technology adoption, it's moving at a faster pace than any technology I've seen in a very long time.

是的。看，我認為當我們開始進入 PC 更新周期時我們會看到它，承認我們還處於早期階段，對吧？獲得雲端——我的意思是，現在最重要的部分是讓雲端能夠為我們所有人提供新一代人工智慧，然後將該架構推向邊緣。我認為我們開始在一些市場上看到一些產品的未來規格，他們正在增加 NAND 的數量。因此，隨著我們在未來幾年內部署和採用該架構，我們對此感到樂觀。所以我不能把它歸結為你的特定季度。但可以肯定的是，隨著新技術的推出或新技術的採用，它的發展速度比我很長一段時間以來所見過的任何技術都快。

The next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Just wanted [to get a] clarification. David, did you say that NAND bit demand is tracking to mid-teens and that compares to bit supply growth of 5%?

只是想[得到]澄清。 David，您是否說過 NAND 位需求正在上升至十幾歲左右，而位供應量增長了 5%？

Yes. We see demand around mid-teens, and that's [fab out]. What we see is kind of fab production of mid-single digits. And obviously, there's inventory between those.

是的。我們看到需求量在十幾歲左右，這就是[fab out]。我們看到的是中等個位數的晶圓廠產量。顯然，這些之間存在庫存。

Okay. Now what got me confused is you also said your NAND inventory is a multiyear low. Did I misunderstand you?

好的。現在讓我困惑的是你還說你的 NAND 庫存是多年來的低點。我是不是誤會你了？

You did not misunderstand me.

你沒有誤解我的意思。

Okay. So if your inventory is a multiyear low and demand [is well] exceeding supply, so you basically are not going to ship to supply -- or you're not going to ship to demand throughout the year? And then price increase would...

好的。因此，如果您的庫存處於多年低位且需求[遠遠]超過供應，那麼您基本上不會根據供應發貨，或者您不會全年根據需求發貨？然後漲價就...

Yes, we'll ship to our share of demand throughout the year.

是的，我們將全年滿足我們的需求份額。

Okay. Would that impact your market share, or you're focusing on like more profitable end market?

好的。這會影響您的市場份額，還是您正在專注於利潤更高的終端市場？

No, we don't anticipate that to impact our market share, Mehdi. The stats that you mentioned on the supply and production were for our estimates and what we see from third-party estimates on the overall market.

不，我們預計這不會影響我們的市場份額，Mehdi。您提到的供應和生產統計數據是我們的估計以及我們從第三方對整個市場的估計中看到的。

Okay. That's overall market, not a reflection of Western Digital...

好的。這是整體市場，而不是西部數據的反映...

Exactly. Go ahead, Mehdi. I'm sorry. No, no. Please, go ahead.

確切地。繼續吧，邁赫迪。對不起。不，不。請繼續。

Yes. So these are market trends, not specific to Western Digital. And then if I may just have a quick follow-up, in terms of a NAND cost down, should we assume that long-term trend of, what, down 10% in terms of CAGR...

是的。因此，這些都是市場趨勢，並非西部數據特有的。然後，如果我可以快速跟進 NAND 成本下降的情況，我們是否應該假設 CAGR 下降 10% 的長期趨勢...

No, we're comfortable with the 15% cost downs, right? We believe that if you -- I mean, we're ahead of that right now in FY '24, quite frankly, but it will come back. And I think when you look at the full year, you can still model 15% for the fiscal year.

不，我們對 15% 的成本下降感到滿意，對嗎？我們相信，如果你——我的意思是，坦率地說，我們現在在 24 財年就領先了，但它會回來的。我認為，當您查看全年時，您仍然可以為該財年建模 15%。

Our next question comes from Steven Fox with Fox Advisors.

我們的下一個問題來自福克斯顧問公司的史蒂文·福克斯。

I was just wondering, on enterprise SSDs, you mentioned that they're still depressed and you'll mix into it. But given the supply situation that you just talked about and where we are in the cycle, like what is your -- how do you envision coming back in that market? And like can you just remind us what a normal mix of enterprise SSDs looks like in your flash business?

我只是想知道，在企業級SSD上，你提到他們仍然很沮喪，你會混進去。但考慮到您剛才談到的供應情況以及我們在周期中的位置，就像您的情況一樣，您預計如何重返該市場？您能否提醒我們，您的快閃記憶體業務中企業級 SSD 的正常組合是什麼樣的？

Well, I mean, for us, it's an emerging part of the portfolio. I think going right into the downturn, we got qualified at numerous -- or a number of cloud titans in our NVMe-based enterprise SSD. And then we kind of went into a market where, quite frankly, enterprise SSD has been the most depressed part of the NAND market in the downturn, and we haven't seen that come back yet. So as that starts to come back out of digestion, it will just be another opportunity for us to mix into that. How much we mix into it will be depending on what the price is in that segment versus other options we have for those bits. So we don't necessarily have a fixed percentage we're going for. It's just we have the product. It's qualified. As demand comes back, we'll consider that demand in part of the whole portfolio calculus.

嗯，我的意思是，對我們來說，這是投資組合中的一個新興部分。我認為，在進入經濟低迷時期，我們在基於 NVMe 的企業級 SSD 中獲得了眾多雲端巨頭的資格。然後我們進入了一個市場，坦白說，企業級 SSD 一直是 NAND 市場在低迷時期最蕭條的部分，而且我們還沒有看到這種情況回來。因此，當它開始從消化中恢復時，這將是我們融入其中的另一個機會。我們混合多少將取決於該細分市場的價格與我們對這些位的其他選擇的價格。所以我們不一定有一個固定的百分比。只是我們有產品。是合格的。隨著需求的回升，我們將在整個投資組合計算中考慮該需求。

Would the big picture be that it trails the enterprise HDDs by a certain amount of time in general? Like do you have a vision for just as enterprise spending recovers, where that product cycle would be?

一般來說，它會落後企業級 HDD 一定的時間嗎？就像您對企業支出復甦時的產品週期有什麼願景嗎？

Well, certainly, it is trailing enterprise HDD. I mean enterprise -- I don't know if I could make a generalization about that because it's just one cycle here. But clearly, there was -- there's more inventory digestion in the hyperscale market on enterprise SSD than there was in capacity enterprise HDDs. As we talked about, we see continued growth in capacity enterprise HDDs. We started out this fiscal year projecting sequential growth throughout the fiscal year, and now we're talking about sequential growth throughout the calendar year. So we see good demand trends coming back on capacity enterprise HDD, which, again, is a good sign for enterprise SSDs will come back. It's just there's a little -- there's more inventory digestion to get through.

嗯，當然，它落後於企業級硬碟。我的意思是企業——我不知道我是否可以對此進行概括，因為這只是一個週期。但顯然，在超大規模市場中，企業級 SSD 的庫存消化量比大容量企業級 HDD 還要多。正如我們所討論的，我們看到企業級 HDD 容量持續成長。我們在本財年開始時預計整個財年的環比增長，現在我們正在討論整個日曆年的環比增長。因此，我們看到容量企業 HDD 的良好需求趨勢正在回歸，這又是企業 SSD 回歸的好兆頭。只是還有一點——還有更多的庫存需要消化。

Our next question comes from Mark Miller with The Benchmark Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 The Benchmark Company 的 Mark Miller。

Your cash flow significantly improved during the quarter. But still, there was an outflow. When do you expect to be positive from a free cash flow perspective?

本季您的現金流顯著改善。但仍有資金外流。從自由現金流的角度來看，您預期什麼時候會出現正值？

Yes. Mark, so turning free cash flow positive is a top priority for us. We're very much focused on it, and we have line of sight to achieving it. We expect to achieve free cash flow positive in the second half of the fiscal '24, either this quarter or the next. As you know, we typically don't guide for cash flow.

是的。馬克，因此將自由現金流轉為正值是我們的首要任務。我們非常關注它，我們有目標去實現它。我們預計在 24 財年下半年（本季或下季）實現正自由現金流。如您所知，我們通常不提供現金流指導。

Do you expect to -- will you have to draw on your revolver? Or do you expect that you won't have to draw on it?

您是否希望—您必須使用左輪手槍？或者您認為您不必利用它？

I don't see that at this point.

目前我還沒看到這一點。

The last question comes from Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital.

最後一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Ananda Baruah。

Just wondering, do you have -- you guys have an early opinion on if NAND bit rate increases as gen AI sort of impacts not just edge cycles but sort of corporate cycles, Fortune 1000 [and the hyperscalers] storage as well and all the other sort of end market constituencies. Do you have any opinion on if there's a sort of increase in NAND supply [over time]? And if you do, do you think the increase could be material and noticeable?

只是想知道，你們是否對 NAND 位元率是否隨著人工智慧時代的影響而增加有早期的看法，這不僅影響邊緣週期，還影響企業週期、財富 1000 強 [和超大規模企業] 儲存以及所有其他方面某種終端市場選區。您對 NAND 供應[隨著時間的推移]是否有所增加有何看法？如果您這樣做，您認為這種增長可能是實質性的且引人注目的嗎？

Yes. So it's a good point here, which is -- like my comments earlier were about the cycle and what we see in NAND and investing in it. We're big believers in the NAND market, and there's going to be a lot of bit growth in the future. And also, the great thing about the NAND market is you still have the ability to produce new nodes and more efficient as far as how much capital you need to put in to get that growth.

是的。所以這是一個很好的觀點，就像我之前關於週期以及我們在 NAND 中看到的以及對其進行投資的評論一樣。我們非常看好 NAND 市場，未來會有很大的成長。而且，NAND 市場的偉大之處在於，您仍然有能力生產新節點，就需要投入多少資本來實現成長而言，效率更高。

So look, the overall thesis on NAND continuing to grow, we have a long technology road map where we can continue to deliver cost downs. That's still a great story, and we expect -- to your point, we expect generative AI to be additive to that, especially on the edge. The NAND market has really, through this downturn, really rotated to an edge-centric market, which, again, our portfolio is very, very well positioned for with our consumer business, with our client SSD business, with our gaming business, with our position with PC OEM. So we're very well positioned there. And yes, as we see that demand come back and it resets the economics of the industry, we have the ability to go satisfy that demand. And so I think you're very bullish about that.

所以看，關於 NAND 的整體論點持續成長，我們有一個長期的技術路線圖，我們可以繼續降低成本。這仍然是一個很棒的故事，我們期望——就你的觀點而言，我們期望生成式人工智慧能夠對此有所補充，尤其是在邊緣領域。透過這次低迷，NAND 市場確實已經轉向以邊緣為中心的市場，我們的產品組合非常非常適合我們的消費者業務、客戶端 SSD 業務、遊戲業務和我們的遊戲業務。 PC OEM 的地位。所以我們在那裡處於非常有利的位置。是的，當我們看到需求回升並重置行業經濟時，我們有能力滿足該需求。所以我認為你對此非常樂觀。

All right. Thanks, everyone. We appreciate your time today. We'll see you throughout the quarter. Take care.

好的。感謝大家。我們非常感謝您今天抽出時間。我們整個季度都會見到您。小心。

This concludes our conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。