威騰電子 (WDC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

西部數據公佈的第四季度和 2023 財年收入好於預期。這一成功得益於客戶端和消費者終端市場的強勁表現。該公司通過專注於優化運營、精簡投資和減少開支來實現這一目標。此外,他們成功地鑑定了新的硬盤和閃存驅動器產品並降低了庫存水平。展望未來,西部數據預計第一季度硬盤需求穩定,閃存市場動態改善。

然而,儘管第四季度業績強勁,但該公司財年營收較上年有所下降。這一下降伴隨著毛利率和營業利潤率的下降。作為回應,西部數據正在進行戰略審查,並預計隨著硬盤和閃存需求的反彈,盈利能力將會提高。

該公司對需求復蘇充滿信心的領域之一是雲存儲。西部數據目前正在與超大規模企業進行積極的對話,並相信對雲存儲的需求將繼續增長。此外,該公司專注於創新,預計下一季度將出現顯著增長。

展望未來,西部數據計劃在 24 財年減少資本支出。他們相信 HDD 和 SSD 技術將在數據中心繼續發展。該公司對生成式人工智能的潛力感到特別興奮,並預計其業務模式將發生積極的變化和發展。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Western Digital's Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As reminder, this call is being recorded.

    下午好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加西部數據第四財季和 2023 財年電話會議。 (操作員說明)謹此提醒,此通話正在錄音。

  • Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Andrew, Vice President, Financial Planning and Analyst and Investor Relations. You may begin.

    現在我想將電話轉給財務規劃、分析師和投資者關係副總裁彼得·安德魯先生。你可以開始了。

  • T. Peter Andrew - VP of IR

    T. Peter Andrew - VP of IR

  • Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today are David Goeckeler, Chief Executive Officer; and Wissam Jabre, Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝大家,大家下午好。今天與我一起出席的是首席執行官 David Goeckeler;和首席財務官 Wissam Jabre。

  • Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements, including expectations for our product portfolio, spending and cost reductions business plans and performance, market trends and financial results based on management's current assumptions and expectations, and as such, does include risks and uncertainties. We assume no obligation to update these statements. Please refer to our most recent financial report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC for more information on the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

    在開始之前,讓我提醒大家,今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述,包括對我們產品組合的預期、支出和成本削減業務計劃和業績、市場趨勢和基於管理層當前假設和預期的財務業績,因此,確實包括風險和不確定性。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。請參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格財務報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件,了解有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的風險和不確定性的更多信息。

  • We will also make references to non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations between the non-GAAP and comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the press release and other materials that are being posted in the Investor Relations section of our website.

    今天我們還將提及非公認會計準則財務指標。非公認會計原則和可比公認會計原則財務指標之間的調節包含在我們網站投資者關係部分發布的新聞稿和其他材料中。

  • With that, I'll now turn the call over to David for introductory remarks.

    現在,我將把電話轉給大衛進行介紹性發言。

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Peter. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining the call to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 results. Western Digital's fiscal fourth quarter revenue exceeded expectations as our access to broad go-to-market channels, enviable retail franchise and strong client SSD portfolio enabled us to capture demand upsides in both client and consumer end markets, reaffirming our strength in a challenging market environment. We reported fourth quarter revenue of $2.7 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of 3.9%. And non-GAAP loss per share was $1.98.

    謝謝你,彼得。下午好,感謝您參加電話會議,討論我們第四季度和 2023 財年的業績。西部數據第四財季收入超出預期,因為我們擁有廣泛的上市渠道、令人羨慕的零售特許經營權和強大的客戶端 SSD 產品組合,使我們能夠抓住客戶端和消費者終端市場的需求增長,重申我們在充滿挑戰的市場環境中的實力。我們報告第四季度收入為 27 億美元,非 GAAP 毛利率為 3.9%。非 GAAP 每股虧損為 1.98 美元。

  • Before diving into the specifics of the quarter and the full fiscal year, I would like to take a moment to reflect on our accomplishments in fiscal year 2023. Importantly, we continue to optimize our operations and successfully executed our innovative product road map, priming ourselves for greater profitability when demand rebounds across hard drives and flash. Throughout the fiscal year, we were focused on enhancing our product leadership and reinforcing our business agility.

    在深入了解本季度和整個財年的具體情況之前,我想花點時間回顧一下我們在 2023 財年所取得的成就。重要的是,我們繼續優化我們的運營並成功執行我們的創新產品路線圖,為我們自己做好準備當硬盤驅動器和閃存的需求反彈時,可以獲得更大的盈利能力。在整個財年中,我們專注於增強我們的產品領先地位和增強我們的業務敏捷性。

  • In HDD, we have successfully qualified our latest family of capacity enterprise hard drives that all major customers and are shipping our 26 terabyte UltraSMR drive in high volume. In Flash, we pioneered the use of wafer bonding in advanced 3D NAND manufacturing and introduced the groundbreaking technology in BiCS8, which sets the foundation for future 3D NAND scaling. On the expense front, we streamlined investments across our HDD and Flash portfolio which enabled us to significantly reduce quarterly operating expense while continuing to deliver innovative products and technologies to address customers' growing storage needs.

    在硬盤驅動器方面,我們已成功通過了所有主要客戶的最新容量企業級硬盤驅動器系列的認證,並且正在大批量發貨我們的 26 TB UltraSMR 驅動器。在閃存方面,我們率先在先進的 3D NAND 製造中使用晶圓鍵合,並在 BiCS8 中引入了突破性技術,為未來的 3D NAND 微縮奠定了基礎。在費用方面,我們簡化了 HDD 和閃存產品組合的投資,這使我們能夠顯著降低季度運營費用,同時繼續提供創新產品和技術來滿足客戶不斷增長的存儲需求。

  • Further, we reduced our cash capital expenditure run rate by over 50% in the fiscal second half and consolidated our hard drive manufacturing footprint. These efforts enabled Western Digital to preserve capital while effectively executing on product strategies and aligning our supply with post-pandemic demand environment.

    此外,我們在下半財年將現金資本支出運行率降低了 50% 以上,並鞏固了我們的硬盤製造足跡。這些努力使西部數據能夠保留資本,同時有效執行產品戰略並使我們的供應與大流行後的需求環境保持一致。

  • Notably, we reduced our inventory by nearly $300 million sequentially and exited fiscal year 2023 at a much healthier level than a few quarters ago. And in June, we successfully completed amendments to our credit agreements, which provide Western Digital with significant additional financial flexibility as we navigate macro dynamics.

    值得注意的是,我們的庫存連續減少了近 3 億美元,2023 財年結束時的水平比幾個季度前要健康得多。六月,我們成功完成了信貸協議的修訂,這為西部數據在應對宏觀動態時提供了顯著的額外財務靈活性。

  • In summary, we continue to proactively take action to bolster our agility enhance our liquidity position, optimize our inventory levels across HDD and Flash and strengthened our position as an industry and market leader. We exited fiscal year 2023 well positioned to capitalize on improving market conditions and capture long-term growth opportunities in data storage, spanning from client to edge to cloud. Finally, I want to acknowledge that the strategic review is ongoing. We continue to make progress on this process and will provide updates as appropriate.

    總之,我們繼續積極採取行動,增強我們的敏捷性,增強我們的流動性狀況,優化我們的 HDD 和閃存庫存水平,並鞏固我們作為行業和市場領導者的地位。 2023 財年結束時,我們處於有利位置,可以充分利用不斷改善的市場狀況並抓住從客戶端到邊緣再到雲的數據存儲領域的長期增長機會。最後,我想承認戰略審查正在進行中。我們將繼續在此過程中取得進展,並將酌情提供更新。

  • Turning to the fiscal fourth quarter. revenue in both client and consumer end markets returned to sequential growth, led by normalized end market demand and higher average capacity per unit in Flash. In Consumer, Retail Flash exceeded our expectations across all major product categories. We saw similar results in client with upside in both HDD and flash and across almost all major product categories, including client SSD, gaming console, embedded flash and client hard drives. In cloud, demand for both hard drive and flash products remain subdued.

    轉向第四財季。在終端市場需求正常化和閃存單位平均容量提高的帶動下,客戶端和消費者終端市場的收入恢復了環比增長。在消費者領域,Retail Flash 在所有主要產品類別中都超出了我們的預期。我們在客戶端中看到了類似的結果,HDD 和閃存以及幾乎所有主要產品類別(包括客戶端 SSD、遊戲機、嵌入式閃存和客戶端硬盤)都具有優勢。在雲領域,對硬盤和閃存產品的需求仍然低迷。

  • I'll now turn to business updates, starting with HDD. In the fiscal fourth quarter, ongoing cloud weakness drove the overall decline in HDD revenue. However, demand for both client and consumer hard drives has stabilized and exceeded our expectations. At the end of the fiscal fourth quarter, we have successfully qualified all variants of our 22 terabyte CMR and 26 terabyte UltraSMR hard drive platforms at all major cloud customers, setting the stage to improve shipments and profitability.

    我現在將轉向業務更新,從 HDD 開始。在第四財季,持續的雲疲軟導致硬盤驅動器收入整體下降。然而,對客戶端和消費者硬盤的需求已經穩定並超出了我們的預期。截至第四財季末,我們已成功在所有主要雲客戶中驗證了 22 TB CMR 和 26 TB UltraSMR 硬盤平台的所有變體,為提高出貨量和盈利能力奠定了基礎。

  • In addition, we are about to begin product sampling of our 28-terabyte UltraSMR drive. This cutting-edge product is built upon the success of our ePMR and UltraSMR technologies, with features and reliability trusted by our customers worldwide. We are staging this product for quick qualification and ramp as demand improves.

    此外,我們即將開始 28 TB UltraSMR 驅動器的產品採樣。這款尖端產品建立在我們 ePMR 和 UltraSMR 技術成功的基礎上,其功能和可靠性受到全球客戶的信賴。我們正在推出該產品,以便隨著需求的改善快速進行資格認證和提升。

  • Turning to Flash. Revenue increased sequentially led by growth in both client and consumer flash bit shipments, which exceeded our expectations with total bit shipments returning to year-over-year growth. The stronger-than-expected bit growth is attributable to normalizing PC and consumer demand as well as content growth. Average capacity per consumer and client SSD increased over 40% and 20% year-over-year, respectively.

    轉向閃存。在客戶端和消費者閃存位出貨量增長的帶動下,收入環比增長,這超出了我們的預期,總位出貨量恢復了同比增長。強於預期的比特增長歸因於個人電腦和消費者需求的正常化以及內容的增長。每個消費者和客戶端 SSD 的平均容量同比分別增長超過 40% 和 20%。

  • Moving to technology developments. We continue to aggressively productize BiCS8 based on a chip bonded to array architecture. BiCS8 solidifies Western Digital and Kok's leadership in cost, capital efficiency and I/O performance into the future.

    轉向技術發展。我們繼續積極生產基於芯片綁定到陣列架構的 BiCS8。 BiCS8 鞏固了西部數據和 Kok 在未來成本、資本效率和 I/O 性能方面的領先地位。

  • Before I turn it over to Wissam, I wanted to share some perspective on our outlook. In HDD, as we look to the fiscal first quarter, we expect overall demand to remain stable. Beyond the fiscal first quarter, we anticipate both improving demand and new product ramps to drive growth in revenue and profitability. In Flash, we are encouraged by several indicators signaling improving market dynamics. Notably, our 2 largest end markets, client and consumer are returning to growth, inventories are normalizing, content per unit is increasing and price declines have been moderating.

    在將其交給 Wissam 之前,我想分享一些對我們前景的看法。在硬盤驅動器方面,展望第一財季,我們預計整體需求將保持穩定。在第一財季之後,我們預計需求的改善和新產品的增加將推動收入和盈利能力的增長。在 Flash 方面,我們對一些表明市場動態改善的指標感到鼓舞。值得注意的是,我們的兩個最大的終端市場(客戶和消費者)正在恢復增長,庫存正在正常化,每單位的內容正在增加,並且價格下降已經放緩。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Wissam.

    有了這個,我會把它交給維薩姆。

  • Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

    Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, David, and good afternoon, everyone. As David mentioned, fiscal fourth quarter revenue exceeded our expectations. Total revenue for the quarter was $2.7 billion, down 5% sequentially and 41% year-over-year. Non-GAAP loss per share was $1.98.

    謝謝大衛,大家下午好。正如大衛提到的,第四財季收入超出了我們的預期。該季度總收入為 27 億美元,環比下降 5%,同比下降 41%。非 GAAP 每股虧損為 1.98 美元。

  • Looking at end markets for the fiscal fourth quarter, cloud represented 37% of total revenue at $1 billion, down 18% sequentially and 53% year-over-year. Sequentially, the decline was primarily due to a decrease in capacity enterprise drive shipments. Nearline bit shipments were 59 exabytes, down 26% sequentially, driven by ongoing weakness at cloud customers. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to declines in both hard drive and flash product shipments.

    從第四財季的終端市場來看,雲收入佔總收入的 37%,為 10 億美元,環比下降 18%,同比下降 53%。其次,下降的主要原因是企業級硬盤出貨量的下降。由於雲客戶持續疲軟,近線位出貨量為 59 艾字節,環比下降 26%。同比下降主要是由於硬盤和閃存產品出貨量下降。

  • Client represented 39% of total revenue at $1 billion, up 6% sequentially and down 37% year-over-year. Sequentially, the increase was driven by growth in bit shipments for gaming consoles. The year-over-year decrease was due to declines in Flash pricing and lower client SSD and hard drive unit shipments for PC applications.

    客戶收入為 10 億美元,佔總收入的 39%,環比增長 6%,同比下降 37%。隨後,增長是由遊戲機位出貨量的增長推動的。同比下降的原因是閃存價格下降以及 PC 應用客戶端 SSD 和硬盤單位出貨量下降。

  • Consumer represented 24% of total revenue at $0.6 billion, up 3% sequentially and down 19% year-over-year. Sequentially, the increase was primarily due to higher retail SSD shipments. The year-over-year decrease was driven by price declines in Flash and lower retail Hard Drive shipments. For the fiscal year, revenue was $12.3 billion, down 34% from fiscal 2022. Non-GAAP gross margin declined 17.2 percentage points to 15.7%, and non-GAAP operating margin decreased 21.8 percentage points to negative 4.8%. Non-GAAP loss per share was $3.59.

    消費者收入 6 億美元,佔總收入的 24%,環比增長 3%,同比下降 19%。隨後,增長主要是由於零售 SSD 出貨量增加。同比下降的原因是閃存價格下降和零售硬盤出貨量下降。本財年收入為 123 億美元,較 2022 財年下降 34%。非 GAAP 毛利率下降 17.2 個百分點至 15.7%,非 GAAP 營業利潤率下降 21.8 個百分點至負 4.8%。非 GAAP 每股虧損為 3.59 美元。

  • Looking at end markets for fiscal year 2023, cloud revenue decreased 34% year-over-year primarily due to reduced shipments of capacity enterprise hard drives and enterprise SSDs. Client revenue decreased 39% year-over-year, primarily due to declines in Flash pricing as well as lower client SSD and hard drive unit shipments for PC applications. Lastly, Consumer revenue decreased 26% for the year as growth in retail SSD bit shipments was more than offset by broad-based Flash price decline and lower consumer Hard Drive shipments.

    縱觀2023財年的終端市場,雲收入同比下降34%,主要是由於大容量企業硬盤和企業SSD的出貨量減少。客戶端收入同比下降 39%,主要是由於閃存定價下降以及 PC 應用客戶端 SSD 和硬盤單位出貨量下降。最後,由於零售 SSD 位出貨量的增長被廣泛的閃存價格下跌和消費類硬盤出貨量下降所抵消,消費類收入今年下降了 26%。

  • Turning now to revenue by segment. In the fiscal fourth quarter, HDD revenue was $1.3 billion, down 13% sequentially and 39% year-over-year. Sequentially, total HDD exabyte shipments decreased 18% and average price per unit decreased 9% to $99. On a year-over-year basis, HDD exabyte shipments decreased 38% and average price per unit decreased 17%.

    現在轉向按細分市場劃分的收入。第四財季,HDD 收入為 13 億美元,環比下降 13%,同比下降 39%。隨後,HDD EB 總出貨量下降了 18%,每單位平均價格下降了 9%,至 99 美元。與去年同期相比,HDD EB 出貨量下降了 38%,單位平均價格下降了 17%。

  • Flash revenue was $1.4 billion, up 5% sequentially and down 43% year-over-year. Sequentially, Flash ASPs decreased 6% on a blended basis and 9% on a like-for-like basis. Flash bit shipments increased 15% sequentially and 7% year-over-year.

    閃存收入為 14 億美元,環比增長 5%,同比下降 43%。隨後,Flash 平均售價在混合基礎上下降了 6%,在同比基礎上下降了 9%。閃存位出貨量環比增長 15%,同比增長 7%。

  • Moving to costs and expenses. Please note that my comments will be related to non-GAAP results unless stated otherwise. Gross margin for the fiscal fourth quarter was 3.9%, down 6.7 percentage points sequentially and 28.4 percentage points year-over-year. This includes $272 million in costs or 10.2 percentage points for manufacturing underutilization, Flash inventory write-downs and other items.

    轉向成本和費用。請注意,除非另有說明,我的評論將與非公認會計準則結果相關。第四財季毛利率為 3.9%,環比下降 6.7 個百分點,同比下降 28.4 個百分點。其中包括 2.72 億美元的成本,即製造利用率不足、閃存庫存減記和其他項目造成的 10.2 個百分點的成本。

  • HDD gross margin was 20.7%, down 3.6 percentage points sequentially and 7.5 percentage points year-over-year. Sequentially, the decrease was primarily due to lower capacity enterprise volume as well as higher underutilization related charges. Underutilization charges were $76 million or 5.9 percentage points.

    硬盤毛利率為20.7%,環比下降3.6個百分點,同比下降7.5個百分點。隨後,下降的主要原因是產能企業數量減少以及利用率不足相關費用增加。未充分利用費用為 7,600 萬美元,即 5.9 個百分點。

  • Flash gross margin was negative 11.9%, down 6.9 percentage points sequentially and 47.8 percentage points year-over-year. Underutilization charges due to the reduced manufacturing volumes were $135 million, and inventory write-downs were $27 million, resulting in an 11.8 percentage point reduction. We continue to tightly manage our operating expenses of $582 million for the quarter, down $20 million sequentially and $178 million year-over-year.

    閃存毛利率為負11.9%,環比下降6.9個百分點,同比下降47.8個百分點。由於產量減少而導致的利用率不足費用為 1.35 億美元,庫存減記為 2,700 萬美元,減少了 11.8 個百分點。我們繼續嚴格管理本季度 5.82 億美元的運營費用,環比減少 2,000 萬美元,同比減少 1.78 億美元。

  • Operating loss in the quarter was $478 million, driven mainly by underutilization charges, inventory write-downs and other items totaling $272 million. Income tax expense was $57 million for fiscal fourth quarter and $237 million for fiscal year 2023. Despite the consolidated loss, we continue to have taxable income in certain geographies, resulting in taxes payable in those areas. Fiscal fourth quarter loss per share was $1.98, inclusive of $15 million dividend associated with the convertible preferred equity.

    本季度運營虧損為 4.78 億美元,主要是由於未充分利用費用、庫存減記和其他項目總計 2.72 億美元造成的。第四財季的所得稅費用為 5700 萬美元,2023 財年的所得稅費用為 2.37 億美元。儘管出現合併虧損,但我們在某些​​地區仍然有應稅收入,因此在這些地區需要繳納稅款。第四財季每股虧損為 1.98 美元,其中包括與可轉換優先股相關的 1500 萬美元股息。

  • Operating cash flow for the fourth quarter was an outflow of $68 million and free cash flow was an outflow of $219 million. Cash capital expenditures which include the purchase of property, plant and equipment and activity related to our Flash joint ventures on the cash flow statement were $151 million. Gross debt outstanding was $7.1 billion at the end of fiscal fourth quarter.

    第四季度運營現金流流出 6800 萬美元,自由現金流流出 2.19 億美元。現金流量表上的現金資本支出為 1.51 億美元,其中包括購買財產、廠房和設備以及與 Flash 合資企業相關的活動。截至第四財季末,未償債務總額為 71 億美元。

  • Trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at the end of the fourth quarter, as defined in our credit agreement, was $1.6 billion, resulting in a gross leverage ratio of 4.5x compared to 2.8x in the fiscal third quarter. As a reminder, the credit agreement includes 0.7 billion in depreciation add-back associated with the Flash joint ventures. This is not reflected in the cash flow statement. Please refer to the earnings presentation on the Investor Relations website for further details.

    根據我們的信貸協議的定義,第四季度末的追踪 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 為 16 億美元,導致總槓桿率為 4.5 倍,而第三財季為 2.8 倍。需要提醒的是,信貸協議包括與 Flash 合資企業相關的 7 億美元折舊回加。這沒有反映在現金流量表中。欲了解更多詳情,請參閱投資者關係網站上的收益報告。

  • During the fiscal fourth quarter, we executed amendment to our credit agreements. These amendments include modifications to the leverage ratio requirements applicable through the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, which provide additional financial flexibility in the near term. We also extended the commitment under the delayed draw term loan agreement to August 14, 2023. Please refer to our earnings presentation for details.

    在第四財季,我們對信貸協議進行了修訂。這些修訂包括對 2025 財年第四季度適用的槓桿率要求的修改,這在短期內提供了額外的財務靈活性。我們還將延遲提取定期貸款協議下的承諾延長至 2023 年 8 月 14 日。有關詳細信息,請參閱我們的收益報告。

  • At the end of the quarter, total liquidity was $4.9 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of $2 billion, undrawn revolver capacity of $2.25 billion and an unused delayed draw term loan facility of $600 million.

    截至本季度末,流動性總額為 49 億美元,其中包括 20 億美元現金和現金等價物、22.5 億美元未提取的循環資金以及 6 億美元未使用的延遲提取定期貸款融資。

  • Before I cover guidance for the fiscal first quarter, I'll discuss our business outlook. For fiscal first quarter, sequentially, we expect both HDD and Flash revenue to be relatively stable. In fiscal first quarter, we are continuing to adjust production to better match demand and anticipate underutilization charges to impact both HDD and Flash gross margins along with product mix pressures on flash ASP.

    在介紹第一財季的指導之前,我將討論我們的業務前景。對於第一財季,我們預計硬盤和閃存收入將相對穩定。在第一財季,我們將繼續調整生產以更好地滿足需求,並預計利用率不足的費用將影響硬盤驅動器和閃存的毛利率以及閃存平均售價的產品組合壓力。

  • Beyond the fiscal first quarter, we anticipate both HDD and Flash revenue to improve through the remainder of fiscal year 2024, driven by normalizing demand in storage as well as higher average content per unit in Flash. Gross margin is expected to gradually improve, driven by higher HDD volume and lower underutilization charges in both Flash and HDD. We will continue to tightly manage our cost structure and expenses as we navigate the challenging environment. For fiscal year 2024, we expect capital expenditures to decline significantly.

    在第一財季之後,我們預計在存儲需求正常化以及閃存單位平均內容增加的推動下,HDD 和閃存收入在 2024 財年剩餘時間內都將有所改善。由於 HDD 銷量增加以及閃存和 HDD 的未充分利用費用降低,預計毛利率將逐步改善。在應對充滿挑戰的環境時,我們將繼續嚴格管理我們的成本結構和支出。對於 2024 財年,我們預計資本支出將大幅下降。

  • I'll now turn to guidance. For the fiscal first quarter, our non-GAAP guidance is as follows: we expect revenue to be in the range of $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion. We expect gross margin to be between 2.5% and 4.5%, which includes underutilization charges across Flash and HDD totaling $200 million to $220 million. We expect operating expenses to be between $570 million to $590 million.

    我現在轉向指導。對於第一財季,我們的非 GAAP 指導如下:我們預計收入將在 25.5 億美元至 27.5 億美元之間。我們預計毛利率將在 2.5% 至 4.5% 之間,其中包括閃存和 HDD 總計 2 億至 2.2 億美元的未充分利用費用。我們預計運營費用將在 5.7 億至 5.9 億美元之間。

  • Interest and other expenses are expected to be approximately $90 million. We expect income tax expense to be between $30 million and $40 million for the fiscal first quarter and $130 million to $170 million for fiscal year 2024. We expect the loss per share of $1.80 to $2.10, assuming approximately 323 million shares outstanding.

    利息和其他費用預計約為 9000 萬美元。我們預計第一財季的所得稅費用將在 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元之間,2024 財年的所得稅費用將在 1.3 億至 1.7 億美元之間。假設流通股約為 3.23 億股,我們預計每股虧損為 1.80 至 2.10 美元。

  • I will now turn the call back over to David.

    我現在將把電話轉回給大衛。

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Wissam. Let me just wrap up. Fiscal year 2023 marked a period of exceptional progress in strategic planning for Western Digital. We diligently optimize our operations and executed our innovative product road map, priming ourselves for greater profitability as demand inevitably rebounds across Hard Drives and Flash. As we move forward, we remain confident in our ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities and deliver continued success.

    謝謝,維薩姆。讓我總結一下。 2023 財年是西部數據戰略規劃取得非凡進展的時期。我們努力優化我們的運營並執行我們的創新產品路線圖,隨著硬盤和閃存的需求不可避免地反彈,我們為獲得更大的盈利能力做好了準備。在我們前進的過程中,我們對利用新興機遇並持續取得成功的能力充滿信心。

  • Before opening up for Q&A, I would like to take a moment to recognize Siva Sivaram, our esteemed President of Technology and Strategy. Siva will be leaving Western Digital to pursue a great leadership opportunity in a different technology domain. Siva has made significant contributions to Western Digital and SanDisk over the past 10 years, and he's a wonderful friend. We wish him all the best going forward. Peter, let's start the Q&A.

    在開始問答之前,我想花點時間向我們尊敬的技術與戰略總裁 Siva Sivaram 致意。 Siva 將離開西部數據,去尋找不同技術領域的絕佳領導機會。 Siva 在過去 10 年里為西部數據和 SanDisk 做出了重大貢獻,他是一位很好的朋友。我們祝愿他未來一切順利。彼得,讓我們開始問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question is going to come from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫·摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • Great. I wonder if you could talk to NAND in the current quarter. looks like the underutilization charges are similar. Does that mean your utilization is unchanged? And I guess, it seems like you're able to make some inventory progress, does that mean that you can, at some point, have line of sight to bringing that back up?

    偉大的。我想知道您是否可以在本季度與 NAND 進行交談。看起來未充分利用的費用是相似的。這是否意味著您的利用率沒有變化?我想,你似乎能夠取得一些庫存進展,這是否意味著你可以在某個時候,有能力恢復庫存?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Joe, thanks for the question. NAND, in the current quarter, as we said, we saw good -- I guess, good market reaction in consumer and in the client business, both returned to growth on an exabyte basis. They both were sequential growers. So we saw incremental upside there. So we were happy about that. We are still underutilizing the fab. I'll let Wissam talk about that in a little bit more detail. We do plan to underutilize for another couple of quarters. But we feel good about the overall.

    是的。喬,謝謝你的提問。 NAND,正如我們所說,在本季度,我們看到了消費者和客戶端業務的良好市場反應,兩者都恢復了以艾字節為基礎的增長。他們都是連續種植者。所以我們看到了那裡的增量上漲。所以我們對此感到高興。我們仍未充分利用晶圓廠。我會讓維薩姆更詳細地談談這個問題。我們確實計劃在接下來的幾個季度內未充分利用。但我們對整體感覺良好。

  • The signs in the overall market price declines are moderating. Our inventory is down bit shipments are up. We expect bit shipments to be up again double digits next quarter. So not quite where we want to be yet, but the market is stabilizing, and we see a lot of good things -- a lot of metrics going in the right direction.

    整體市場價格下跌的跡象正在放緩。我們的庫存下降了,但出貨量卻增加了。我們預計下季度比特出貨量將再次增長兩位數。所以還沒有達到我們想要的目標,但市場正在穩定,我們看到了很多好的事情——很多指標都在朝著正確的方向發展。

  • Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

    Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Joe. And with respect to underutilization, we saw similar type of underutilization charges in fiscal Q4 versus Q3 for the Flash side. And when you look at HDD, we had a bit of more underutilization. But sticking with Flash, also in our guidance, we've noted similar levels into fiscal Q1, albeit if you look at sort of the range of $200 million to $220 million, I would say, it is split 70% Flash, 30% HDD. And also, we're -- if I think of, let's say, the fiscal Q2, I anticipate more or less similar levels of underutilization from where we stand today.

    是的,喬。關於利用率不足,我們在第四財季和第三財季看到了閃存方麵類似類型的利用率不足費用。當你看看硬盤時,我們發現利用率不足。但在我們的指導中,我們仍然堅持使用閃存,我們在第一財季注意到了類似的水平,儘管如果你看看 2 億至 2.2 億美元的範圍,我會說,它分為 70% 閃存和​​ 30% 硬盤。而且,如果我想到第二財季,我預計與我們今天的情況或多或少會出現類似的未充分利用水平。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • Great. And if I could just follow up. In terms of the uses of cash in the next few quarters, I know you've got the convert that comes due early next year. I think there's still some issues about a potential tax payment. Can you just update us there and sort of do you need to raise money to pay those out?

    偉大的。如果我能跟進的話。就未來幾個季度的現金使用而言,我知道您已經在明年初到期了。我認為潛在的納稅問題仍然存在一些問題。您能告訴我們最新情況嗎?您是否需要籌集資金來支付這些費用?

  • Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

    Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

  • So with respect to uses of cash, as you noted, we do have the convert that matures in February '24, and we plan to address that this quarter or the next one. We also have the IRS settlement that is coming up, and we expect also this payment to be very likely this quarter. But with respect to liquidity exiting fiscal Q4, we had approximately $4.9 billion of liquidity. And so if you recall, the delayed drawn term loan was put in place in the event we need to address the IRS settlement. So that will be drawn down to take care of the IRS settlement when it happens. And with respect to the convert, I mentioned, we'll address it in the coming 2 quarters.

    因此,關於現金的使用,正如您所指出的,我們確實有將於 24 年 2 月到期的轉換,我們計劃在本季度或下一個季度解決這個問題。我們還有即將到來的國稅局和解,我們預計這筆付款也很可能在本季度完成。但就第四財季退出的流動性而言,我們擁有大約 49 億美元的流動性。因此,如果您還記得的話,延遲提取的定期貸款是在我們需要解決國稅局和解問題時發放的。因此,當這種情況發生時,我們將提取這筆資金來支付國稅局的結算。關於轉換,我提到,我們將在未來兩個季度內解決它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is going to come from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

    下一個問題將來自 C.J. Muse 和 Evercore ISI 的產品線。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess this question, from a supply perspective, we haven't seen a initiative you're seeing. So how would you think about a return to kind of demand normalization over the next 6, 9 and 12 months?

    我想這個問題,從供應的角度來看,我們還沒有看到你所看到的舉措。那麼,您如何看待未來 6、9 和 12 個月內需求回歸正常化的情況?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Okay. That was CJ, right? CJ, that was very -- it was a little tough to hear you there, but I think we got the gist of the question, which was supply-demand normalization. Is that right in Flash?

    好的。那是CJ,對吧? CJ,那是非常 - 聽到你的聲音有點困難,但我認為我們明白了問題的要點,那就是供需正常化。 Flash 中是這樣嗎?

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Yes. Sorry about that. Yes.

    是的。對於那個很抱歉。是的。

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • No, that's all right. Okay. So look, I think, as I said, a number of things we saw in the market this quarter. We saw sequential bit growth overall. We saw client and consumer returning to exabyte growth on a year-over-year basis. Consumer SSD, content up 40%. Client SSD up 20%. We saw our inventory down. We think in the consumer and client markets, PC markets basically shipping to demand at this point. We expect our -- for the fiscal year, we saw our bits about flat year-over-year. For the calendar year, we see them down low single digits. We probably see the industry down a little lower than that.

    不,沒關係。好的。因此,我認為,正如我所說,我們本季度在市場上看到了一些事情。我們看到整體位元連續增長。我們看到客戶和消費者恢復了艾字節的同比增長。消費級 SSD,含量增長 40%。客戶端 SSD 增長 20%。我們看到我們的庫存下降了。我們認為,在消費者和客戶端市場,個人電腦市場目前基本上滿足需求。我們預計,在本財年,我們的業績同比持平。就日曆年而言,我們看到它們下降了低個位數。我們可能會看到該行業的跌幅略低於此。

  • So we're taking the actions to bring supply and demand better into balance. And I think we're seeing that across our markets. Cloud is still -- there's still a couple of quarters ago there. That's a larger story. But in our 2 biggest markets for Flash, we're seeing that supply-demand balance start to move closer together, put it that way.

    因此,我們正在採取行動,使供需更好地平衡。我認為我們在整個市場上都看到了這一點。雲仍然存在——幾個季度前仍然存在。這是一個更大的故事。但在我們的兩個最大的 Flash 市場中,我們看到供需平衡開始變得更加接近,可以這樣說。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Second question, the strategic review, you announced (inaudible). So I think there was a hope that maybe there might be some (inaudible) underneath that thing. How should we (inaudible)?

    第二個問題,戰略審查,您宣布了(聽不清)。所以我認為,希望在那東西下面可能有一些(聽不清)。我們應該如何(聽不清)?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Okay. I think that was a strategic review and timing, CJ. So like the process is active. We look forward to talking more about it when we reach a conclusion.

    好的。我認為這是一次戰略審查和時機,CJ。就像這個過程是活躍的一樣。當我們得出結論時,我們期待更多地討論它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is going to come from the line of Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的亞倫·雷克斯 (Aaron Rakers)。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is Michael on behalf of Aaron. I wanted to ask how are you guys thinking with the recent uptick in AI investment in the data center? How do you think that impacts the mix of flash relative to HDD capacity being deployed? Or maybe how that will impact you going forward? And then kind of related to that, with how -- or can you guys just give us an update on where you stand with your enterprise SSD qualifications?

    這是邁克爾代表亞倫。我想問一下,你們對最近數據中心人工智能投資的增加有何看法?您認為這對閃存與正在部署的 HDD 容量的組合有何影響?或者這會對你的未來產生怎樣的影響?然後與此相關的是,你們如何——或者你們能給我們介紹一下你們在企業級 SSD 資格方面的最新情況嗎?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I've been thinking a lot about generative AI. It's clearly a big topic these days. And obviously, a lot of spend going on to build out the infrastructure in the cloud, which I think, quite frankly, is a great thing. The cloud distribution model of new technology is something that is amazing that's been built out over the last decade, so we all get access to this technology very rapidly.

    是的。我一直在思考生成式人工智能的很多問題。這顯然是當今的一個大話題。顯然,大量支出用於構建雲中的基礎設施,坦率地說,我認為這是一件很棒的事情。新技術的雲分發模型是過去十年中建立的令人驚奇的東西,因此我們都可以非常快速地訪問這項技術。

  • And when I think about this in the storage domain, clearly, the compute infrastructure is being built out now, but we're all going to be enabled with are like incredible tools to automate data creation at many different levels, whether it's tax data, video data, whatever it happens to be. I think that we're essentially going to really accelerate our ability, all of us to create information that needs to be stored. So I see this as kind of a catalyst for just a profound increase in the amount of data creation.

    當我在存儲領域思考這一點時,顯然,計算基礎設施現在正在構建,但我們都將能夠使用令人難以置信的工具來自動化許多不同級別的數據創建,無論是稅務數據,視頻數據,無論它是什麼。我認為我們本質上將真正提高我們所有人創建需要存儲的信息的能力。因此,我認為這是數據創建量大幅增加的催化劑。

  • I think that once those tools get distributed and we all start using them, I think that drives incremental growth across SSDs and hard drives. I mean, hard drives are the foundational storage in the cloud. It's going to be that way for a very long time. So while gen AI may have some disruptions on the business in the near term as the compute infrastructure gets built out, very optimistic that this is a -- as I said, I think it's a profound -- it's a catalyst for a profound increase in the rate of data creation.

    我認為,一旦這些工具得到分發並且我們都開始使用它們,我認為這將推動 SSD 和硬盤驅動器的增量增長。我的意思是,硬盤驅動器是雲中的基礎存儲。這種情況將會持續很長一段時間。因此,雖然隨著計算基礎設施的建成,新一代人工智能可能會在短期內對業務產生一些干擾,但非常樂觀的是,正如我所說,我認為這是一個深遠的影響,它是一個深刻增長的催化劑。數據創建率。

  • So quite excited about that. We don't know exactly what -- how you model that just yet, except that there's new innovation drives new data creation, which drives the need for storage. So we look forward as these -- as this infrastructure gets built out and rapidly adopted the impact it's going to have on our business.

    對此非常興奮。我們還不知道具體是什麼——如何建模,除了新的創新推動新的數據創建,從而推動存儲需求。因此,我們期待著這些——隨著基礎設施的建成並迅速採用,它將對我們的業務產生影響。

  • Now on enterprise SSD, we still have the qualifications. We've recently qualified BiCS5 in some of these places. That market, along with nearline HDD or capacity enterprise HDD is depressed right now or subdued. So we're not seeing a lot of growth in that. But we fully expect that when that market comes back and that part of cloud infrastructure spending comes back that we'll be in a good position. We're still investing in the products and feel good about the position we have with the major cloud vendors.

    現在在企業級SSD上,我們還是有資格的。我們最近在其中一些地方驗證了 BiCS5。該市場以及近線硬盤或大容量企業硬盤目前都處於低迷或低迷狀態。所以我們沒有看到這方面有太多增長。但我們完全預計,當該市場恢復並且部分雲基礎設施支出恢復時,我們將處於有利地位。我們仍在對產品進行投資,並對我們在主要雲供應商中的地位感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is going to come from the line of Tom O'Malley with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的湯姆·奧馬利。

  • Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

    Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

  • I just I wanted to narrow in on the HDD side. There's been a variance of timing of recovery across the industry. Could you just give us your latest when you think the cloud portion of your HDD business is going to recover? I know you previously have said the fourth quarter. Has there been any pushout in that expectation? And could you also just comment on the health I know it's down this quarter, but just the health of that HDD business as you're seeing it today. So just the timing of the recovery and how it's turning today.

    我只是想縮小硬盤驅動器方面的範圍。整個行業的複蘇時間存在差異。當您認為您的硬盤業務的雲部分將會恢復時,您能告訴我們您的最新情況嗎?我知道你之前說過第四季度。這種期望有被推遲嗎?您是否也可以評論一下我知道本季度有所下降的健康狀況,但只是您今天看到的硬盤驅動器業務的健康狀況。所以只是複甦的時機以及今天的情況如何轉變。

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think as we move -- so first of all, we think we're going to see sequential exabyte growth in capacity enterprise HDD throughout the fiscal year, but it's going to be towards the end of the year into the first quarter where we start to get line of sight to all of the customers coming back. I think we're having discussions across all of our customers about what they're -- we always have conversations. But some of the ones have been in inventory digestion for quite a while. So we're getting better line of sight to the end of that.

    是的。我認為,隨著我們的行動,首先,我們認為在整個財年中,我們將看到企業級 HDD 容量連續艾字節增長,但這將是在年底到第一季度我們開始的時候讓所有回來的顧客都能看到。我認為我們正在與所有客戶討論他們是什麼——我們總是進行對話。但其中一些庫存消化已經有一段時間了。因此,到最後我們的視線會更好。

  • But I think we still have a couple of quarters to go, but improving I think next quarter, things will be stable. It will be a mix impact there. We expect Client to be a little bit more challenged than this quarter. But I think as we move throughout the year, things will get better, and I think your timing of a couple more quarters of getting through this phase. And as we get into early next year, we expect things to look better.

    但我認為我們還有幾個季度的時間,但我認為下個季度情況將會穩定。那裡將產生混合影響。我們預計客戶將比本季度面臨更大的挑戰。但我認為,隨著我們全年的發展,情況會變得更好,而且我認為您還需要再花幾個季度來度過這個階段。當我們進入明年初時,我們預計情況會更好。

  • Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

    Thomas James O'Malley - Research Analyst

  • Helpful. And then also on the HDD business, your competitor kind of talked about being more aggressive in certain areas on pricing. Have you guys also look to be more aggressive on pricing? And any comments that you have on just your strategy with clients on the pricing side?

    有幫助。然後,在 HDD 業務上,您的競爭對手也談到了在某些領域的定價上更加激進。你們是否也希望在定價上更加激進?您對定價方面與客戶的策略有何評論?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Yes, pricing really starts with innovation. I mean, I think that's where we're staging our UltraSMR product. We're really, really happy with where UltraSMR is at ePMR opting in, and we're already staging our next product for growth there. That's the underpinnings of where we're able to bring a better TCO proposition to our customers. And as we do that, we're able to share in the benefits of that as those drives gets deployed.

    是的,定價確實始於創新。我的意思是,我認為這就是我們展示 UltraSMR 產品的地方。我們對 UltraSMR 在 ePMR 中的選擇感到非常非常滿意,並且我們已經在那裡部署了我們的下一個產品以實現增長。這是我們能夠為客戶提供更好的 TCO 方案的基礎。當我們這樣做時,我們就能夠在部署這些驅動器時分享由此帶來的好處。

  • The rest of the market is more market-driven pricing. We have a lot of different channels, a lot of different markets we sell into, and that type of pricing is just -- is more what you would typically think in any big market around supply and demand.

    其餘市場更多的是由市場驅動的定價。我們有很多不同的渠道,我們銷售的產品有很多不同的市場,而且這種定價方式更像是你在任何圍繞供需的大市場中通常會想到的定價方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 Cowen 的對話。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • (inaudible) in June was down on sequence of your peers, just spoke that pricing should improve after -- or revenue should improve after December. Is that a function of overall NAND getting better or your specific exposure to retail and PCs that's helped (inaudible)? And then I have a follow-up.

    (聽不清)6 月份的排名比您的同行低,只是說定價應該在 12 月之後改善,或者收入應該在 12 月之後改善。這是整體 NAND 變得更好的功能還是您對零售和 PC 的特定接觸有所幫助(聽不清)?然後我有一個後續行動。

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • I missed the first part of the question.

    我錯過了問題的第一部分。

  • Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

    Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sorry, Krish, can you please repeat?

    抱歉,克里什,你能再說一遍嗎?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • You didn't have a great -- there's a little bit of static on the line.

    你的表現不太好——線上有一點靜電。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I apologize. I was just trying to (inaudible) the pricing in June. We spoke about the revenue improvement. Is is a function of NAND pricing improving what your targeted retail and PC is going to get better?

    我道歉。我只是想(聽不清)六月份的定價。我們談到了收入的改善。 NAND 定價的功能是否會改善您的目標零售和 PC 將會變得更好?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Okay. Let me -- I think I got it at that time. So NAND pricing. So first of all, in the last quarter, NAND price, you saw like-for-like pricing down 9%, blended down 6%, so moderating from the quarter before. Next quarter, we expect volume to pick up, which will drive volume pick up margin to be impacted a little bit more from where it is today. So continue to moderate, but volume picking up. Does that help answer your question? I don't know if I didn't get all of your question, Krish, so I'm sorry if I'm not answering it.

    好的。讓我——我想我當時就明白了。所以NAND定價。首先,在上個季度,NAND 價格,同類價格下降了 9%,混合價格下降了 6%,因此與上一季度相比有所放緩。下個季度,我們預計成交量將回升,這將推動成交量回升利潤率比目前受到的影響更大一些。因此繼續溫和,但成交量回升。這有助於回答您的問題嗎?克里什,我不知道我是否沒有聽清你的所有問題,所以如果我沒有回答,我很抱歉。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • No, no, I think it does. It does. I was just trying to figure out you specific end vertical, which is PCs and retail.

    不,不,我認為是這樣。確實如此。我只是想找出具體的垂直領域,即個人電腦和零售。

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • I got you. So on -- as we said, we saw the client and consumer markets return to growth, exabyte growth and sequential revenue growth. So we see those markets have kind of through their inventory digestion and more shipping to end demand. So that we expect that to continue as we go forward.

    我接到你了。如此往復——正如我們所說,我們看到客戶端和消費者市場恢復增長、艾字節增長和連續收入增長。因此,我們看到這些市場通過庫存消化和更多運輸來滿足最終需求。因此,我們希望這種情況能夠繼續下去。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then a quick follow-up on hard drive. You said that you're sampling the 8-terabyte ePMR. Is the 26 terabyte ePMR still on the road map? And are you like doing that by increasing the number of disks per drive? And how do you think about the gross margin (inaudible) to terabyte?

    知道了。然後對硬盤進行快速跟進。您說您正在對 8 TB ePMR 進行採樣。 26 TB ePMR 還在計劃中嗎?您是否願意通過增加每個驅動器的磁盤數量來實現這一點?您如何看待 TB 級的毛利率(聽不清)?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Okay. So let me -- again, I think I got most of the question. So we're not adding more disk. I mean, UltraSMR, it's a combination of our OptiNAND and UltraSMR technology. It's the next step on the road map. I think we've talked a lot over the last year plus about this driving from 20 to 30 plus with a set of technologies around ePMR, OptiNAND, UltraSMR. And this is the next step in that road map. We still have a couple of more steps to go. So we'll announce the products one at a time, but we're happy with where we are and continue to drive innovation.

    好的。所以讓我——再說一遍,我想我已經回答了大部分問題。所以我們不會添加更多磁盤。我的意思是,UltraSMR,它是我們的 OptiNAND 和 UltraSMR 技術的結合。這是路線圖上的下一步。我想我們在過去的一年裡已經討論了很多關於通過一系列圍繞 ePMR、OptiNAND、UltraSMR 的技術將 20 提升到 30 的問題。這是該路線圖的下一步。我們還有幾步要做。因此,我們將一次發布一款產品,但我們對目前的狀況感到滿意,並將繼續推動創新。

  • And as demand comes back, we'll be ramping into a great set of products. And these are products that can be staged quickly and ramp in volumes very quickly, very established technology. And the 26 T drive UltraSMR drive, we really -- that sold at scale this quarter, and we expect a significant growth in that in the next quarter as well.

    隨著需求的回升,我們將推出一系列出色的產品。這些產品可以快速上市并快速增加產量,技術非常成熟。而 26 T 驅動器 UltraSMR 驅動器,我們確實在本季度大規模銷售,我們預計下季度也將出現顯著增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自瓦姆西·莫漢 (Wamsi Mohan) 與美國銀行的聯繫。

  • Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

    Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

  • So we've had a few head fakes on recovery in the -- on the cloud side, particularly in HDDs. And wondering, as you think through sort of this improvement starting in fiscal 2Q. What's underpinning some of the confidence the demand recovery are you seeing particular signs from customers that are pointing to that. And your primary competitor also noted taking some changes, including a build-to-order philosophy. Curious if you guys are contemplating any such changes? And I have a follow-up.

    因此,我們在雲端恢復方面遇到了一些假象,特別是在 HDD 中。當你思考從第二財季開始的這種改進時,你會想知道。支撐需求復蘇信心的因素是您從客戶那裡看到了表明這一點的特殊跡象。您的主要競爭對手也注意到採取了一些改變,包括按訂單生產的理念。好奇你們是否正在考慮任何這樣的改變?我有一個後續行動。

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Wamsi. So first of all, yes, I mean, you hit it. I mean we have ongoing and very significant conversations with our customers on many quarters out. So that's what gives us -- that's what underpins the view we have. To your point, things can change, but that's the current view. And the conversations are productive and positive. On the build-to-order comment, look, I think the industry is going to come out of the -- well, let me speak about us. So Western Digital will come out of this downturn. It's a pretty severe downturn in a cyclical industry. But we've done a lot of things that I think the business is going to be different on the other side of this.

    瓦姆西。首先,是的,我的意思是,你成功了。我的意思是,我們在許多季度與客戶進行了持續且非常重要的對話。這就是我們的觀點的基礎。就你的觀點而言,事情可能會改變,但這就是當前的觀點。而且對話富有成效且積極。關於按訂單生產的評論,我認為這個行業將會走出——好吧,讓我談談我們。所以西部數據將會走出這次低迷。對於週期性行業來說,這是一次相當嚴重的衰退。但我們做了很多事情,我認為從另一方面來看,業務將會有所不同。

  • First of all, we've taken significant amount of capacity out of the system. We've talked about the shift from client to capacity enterprise, at least as long as I've been here and it's been going on for many, many years before that. I think that transition is going to be essentially done. There's a long tail on any technology. But if you look -- on the unit basis, we'll come out of this with significant less spending on our infrastructure. We'll have the lowest fixed cost we've had in a decade plus in our HDD infrastructure and will really be focused exclusively on that client enterprise business going forward. That's not a -- we'll still have a client business. Don't get me wrong. It's still going to be there. Like I said, there's a long tail of technology.

    首先,我們已經從系統中取出了大量的容量。我們已經討論過從客戶到容量企業的轉變,至少自從我在這里以來,這種轉變已經持續了很多年。我認為這種轉變將基本上完成。任何技術都有長尾。但如果你看一下——按單位計算,我們將在基礎設施方面的支出顯著減少。我們的硬盤基礎設施將擁有十年來最低的固定成本,並且未來將真正專注於客戶企業業務。那不是——我們仍然會有客戶業務。別誤會我的意思。它仍然會在那裡。就像我說的,技術有長尾。

  • But I think as part of that, the industry will come out and we will come out of this as more of a build the order, if you will, as opposed to a build to forecast. So that's why we're having these conversations with our customers because it is a it is a long build time on an HDD, and we want to make sure that we've got the infrastructure in place. We've got the components in place, and we're running the right process to deliver what our customers need at the right time. So I think that maybe the short answer to your question is yes, Western Digital will be -- is going to more of that kind of process.

    但我認為,作為其中的一部分,這個行業將會出現,我們將更多地構建訂單(如果你願意的話),而不是構建預測。這就是我們與客戶進行這些對話的原因,因為 HDD 的構建時間很長,我們希望確保基礎設施到位。我們已經準備好組件,並且正在運行正確的流程,以便在正確的時間交付客戶所需的內容。所以我認為,也許你的問題的簡短答案是肯定的,西部數據將採取更多這樣的流程。

  • Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

    Wamsi Mohan - MD in Americas Equity Research

  • Okay. Dave, and just a clarification on the underutilization charges, which look roughly flattish quarter-on-quarter. Are those charges roughly similar in flash and HDD this past quarter? Or are there different moving pieces underlying that for September?

    好的。戴夫,我只是對未充分利用費用進行澄清,該費用與上一季度相比大致持平。上個季度閃存和 HDD 的費用大致相似嗎?或者 9 月份是否有不同的動人因素?

  • Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

    Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure, Wamsi. So when you look at the September quarter, the guide at $200 million to $220 million of underutilization charges and they're split roughly 70% Flash, 30% HDD. And I would -- just to clarify also to add with respect probably to the following quarter. I expect -- sorry, underutilization related charges to be let's say, 5% to 10% down and most of the -- if not all of the decrease would be coming from HDD.

    當然,瓦姆西。因此,當您查看 9 月份的季度時,您會發現未充分利用費用為 2 億至 2.2 億美元,其中大約 70% 為閃存,30% 為 HDD。我想澄清一下,可能會補充下一個季度的情況。我預計——抱歉,與未充分利用相關的費用會下降 5% 到 10%,其中大部分(如果不是全部)下降將來自 HDD。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

  • Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

    Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about the cloud weakness again. I understand the cloud things could be lumpy. But curious about your conversations with the large hyperscale guys. How has that changed around a quarter ago? Are they giving you signals about when inventory will start stabilizing? Are they worried about supply in the second half given production cuts by all the suppliers? And are they more receptive to purchase commitments?

    我想再問一下云的弱點。我知道云的事情可能會很混亂。但對你與大型超大規模人員的對話感到好奇。大約四分之一前情況發生了怎樣的變化?他們是否向您發出庫存何時開始穩定的信號?供應商紛紛減產,是否擔心下半年供應?他們是否更容易接受購買承諾?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Yes. What I would say is the it's always a very robust conversation given the amount of business we do with the hyperscalers. It's clear that some of them have been in a very severe inventory digestion phase and kind of took a pause on buying anything, but we're back to having conversations with those customers. I mean, they're still growing. And storage is still being created and growing. So we expect those conversations in those businesses to the buying will reemerge and we're having the conversations on when that will happen and in what magnitude just to make sure that we've got all of our capacity aligned to deliver that.

    是的。我想說的是,考慮到我們與超大規模企業的業務量,這始終是一次非常活躍的對話。很明顯,他們中的一些人已經處於非常嚴重的庫存消化階段,並且暫停了購買任何東西,但我們又開始與這些客戶進行對話。我的意思是,它們仍在成長。並且存儲仍在創建和增長。因此,我們預計這些企業中關於購買的對話將會重新出現,我們正在就何時發生以及發生的規模進行對話,以確保我們擁有所有能力來實現這一目標。

  • I think we're getting very good reception on the product road map. As we talked about our 22, 24, 26 terabyte platform and products have now been qualified by all of the major cloud vendors. We're just -- we expect to ramp those significantly, especially the 26 T next quarter. That's really becoming a major capacity point for some of the biggest cloud builders. And right on the back of that, we're launching a 28 T UltraSMR drive. So the conversations are strong, and it's about making sure we have clear alignment on what their requirements are going to be and that we get the proper manufacturing in place to deliver on that.

    我認為我們在產品路線圖上得到了很好的反響。正如我們所討論的,我們的 22、24、26 TB 平台和產品現已獲得所有主要雲供應商的認證。我們只是 - 我們預計會在下個季度大幅增加這些產品,尤其是 26 T。這確實成為一些最大的雲構建商的主要容量點。緊接著,我們即將推出 28 T UltraSMR 驅動器。因此,對話是強有力的,這是為了確保我們對他們的要求有明確的一致性,並確保我們有適當的製造來實現這一目標。

  • Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

    Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Maybe a quick follow-up on the Hard Drive side. Clearly, you guys have been better than the competitor last quarter. But I just want to hone in on the SMR drives, which you said have qualified at all major cloud customers. Can you give us an idea what SMR adoption is today and where you think it will be in a few quarters from now?

    好的。也許是硬盤方面的快速跟進。顯然,上個季度你們比競爭對手錶現得更好。但我只想重點討論一下 SMR 驅動器,您所說的 SMR 驅動器已在所有主要雲客戶中獲得資格。您能否向我們介紹一下 SMR 目前的採用情況以及您認為幾個季度後的情況?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • SMR, it's very idiosyncratic. I mean the intersection of adoption and inventory digestion makes it very lumpy. And if you look at the current quarter or last quarter, but I can say going forward that several of the major cloud providers are standardizing on an SMR deployment, UltraSMR for us, and we expect have a significant ramp of that technology over the next several quarters.

    SMR,這是非常特殊的。我的意思是,採用和庫存消化的交集使其變得非常不穩定。如果你看看當前季度或上個季度,但我可以說,展望未來,幾家主要的雲提供商正在對 SMR 部署(UltraSMR)進行標準化,我們預計該技術在接下來的幾個季度中會有顯著的提升宿舍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Toshiya Hari 與高盛的對話。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • I had one clarification and then a question. David, on NAND ASPs for the current quarter, I guess you talked about bids being up double digits sequentially, and you're kind of guiding revenue to flat sequentially. So I guess, the implied ASPs are down perhaps a little bit more than what they were down in the June quarter, but you talked about moderation. So is the sharper price decline in September that's implied in guidance or embedded in guidance, primarily a function of mix? Or am I missing something there?

    我先做了一個澄清,然後提出了一個問題。 David,關於本季度的 NAND 平均售價,我想您談到了出價連續兩位數上漲,並且您正在引導收入連續持平。所以我猜,隱含的平均售價可能比六月份季度的下降幅度要大一點,但你談到了適度。那麼,9 月份價格大幅下跌是否暗示在指導中或嵌入在指導中,主要是混合的函數?或者我在那裡錯過了什麼?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Yes. It may be a little bit -- sequentially, maybe a little bit lower than what you're modeling. So I think that's where it is. Toshiya, we can follow up with you on kind of more details, but I think that's probably the clarification.

    是的。它可能會比您所建模的順序低一點。所以我認為這就是問題所在。 Toshiya,我們可以就更多細節與您聯繫,但我認為這可能是澄清。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • Okay. Got it. And then as my follow-up, maybe one for Wissam. You mentioned that for fiscal '24, you plan to cut CapEx significantly. Curious if it's purely impacting your capacity decisions in NAND? Or are there any changes or shifts to how you think about the road map? And related to that, I think on a bit shipments, David, you mentioned for calendar '24, you guys are going to be, I think, down low single digits. But how should we think about bit production in calendar '24, given the CapEx and production cuts that you're going through right now?

    好的。知道了。然後作為我的後續行動,也許是維薩姆的一個。您提到,對於 24 財年,您計劃大幅削減資本支出。好奇它是否純粹影響您的 NAND 容量決策?或者您對路線圖的看法是否有任何變化或轉變?與此相關的是,我認為大衛,你提到的 24 日曆年的出貨量,我認為你們將下降低個位數。但是,考慮到您現在正在經歷的資本支出和產量削減,我們應該如何考慮 24 年的比特生產呢?

  • Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

    Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, maybe let me first start with the first part of the question on CapEx, Toshiya. The comment on CapEx is -- well, when you look at calendar -- sorry, fiscal '23, we've taken quite a bit of CapEx from our plans as we continue to preserve cash. I mean you can see that we've spent, I think, year-on-year, we're down roughly 30% to 35%. And it's almost $1 billion lower than -- at the gross CapEx level, almost $1 billion lower than what our plan was at the beginning of the year for fiscal '23.

    好吧,也許讓我首先從資本支出問題的第一部分開始,Toshiya。關於資本支出的評論是——嗯,當你看日曆時——抱歉,23 財年,我們從計劃中扣除了大量資本支出,因為我們繼續保留現金。我的意思是你可以看到我們的支出同比下降了大約 30% 到 35%。這比總資本支出水平低了近 10 億美元,比我們年初的 23 財年計劃低了近 10 億美元。

  • For fiscal '24, we're projecting to be significantly lower. It's mostly in line -- it doesn't impact necessarily our product road map. It is more or less what we see today relative to what our NAND or basically other types of investments, meaning no the transitions or other types of investments planned. And so I wouldn't say there's any major change relative to what we've already been planning. But given the dynamic macro environment we're operating in, we will continue to monitor, just like we've done in fiscal '23 on a quarterly basis and adjust as needed.

    對於 24 財年,我們預計會大幅降低。它基本上是一致的——它不一定會影響我們的產品路線圖。這或多或少是我們今天看到的與我們的 NAND 或基本上其他類型的投資相關的情況,這意味著沒有計劃的轉型或其他類型的投資。因此,我不會說與我們已經計劃的內容相比有任何重大變化。但鑑於我們所處的動態宏觀環境,我們將繼續進行監控,就像我們在 23 財年所做的那樣,按季度進行監控並根據需要進行調整。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Shannon Cross with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的香農·克羅斯 (Shannon Cross)。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Research Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Research Analyst

  • I'm wondering, you have any unique perspective having both HDDs and SSDs. There's commentary coming out of Pure, and I'm hearing more from some of the other storage vendors of a growing use of or cloud within data -- or sorry, growing use of SSDs within cloud and data centers and almost like a potential secular shift. Again, Pure takes it kind of to the extreme. But I'm just wondering how you think about how the mix will trend over time, maybe layer in AI, if you want? And just think about (inaudible) we should worry about what are you hearing from your customers? And then I have a follow-up.

    我想知道您對 HDD 和 SSD 有何獨特的看法。 Pure 發表了評論,我從其他一些存儲供應商那裡聽到了更多關於數據中越來越多地使用 SSD 的評論,或者抱歉,在雲和數據中心內越來越多地使用 SSD,幾乎就像是潛在的長期轉變。 Pure 再次將其發揮到了極致。但我只是想知道你如何看待這種組合隨著時間的推移將如何發展,如果你願意的話,也許可以在人工智能中分層?想想(聽不清)我們應該擔心您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼?然後我有一個後續行動。

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Shannon, thanks for the question. We've talked about this a lot over the years. I think that both technologies are growing in the data center. HDD is the predominant storage mechanism in the data center we don't expect that to change. Our customers don't expect that to change. As long as we continue to drive the HCD road map forward, we just -- we're ramping 26 terabyte. We're already launching 28 terabytes. So we're moving forward with capacity points on HDD. And we expect robust growth of HDD storage in the data center going forward.

    香農,謝謝你的提問。多年來我們已經多次討論過這個問題。我認為這兩種技術都在數據中心不斷發展。 HDD 是數據中心的主要存儲機制,我們預計這一點不會改變。我們的客戶預計這種情況不會改變。只要我們繼續推動 HCD 路線圖向前發展,我們就會將容量增加到 26 TB。我們已經推出了 28 TB。因此,我們正在努力提高 HDD 的容量點。我們預計未來數據中心的 HDD 存儲將強勁增長。

  • We also expect growth of enterprise SSD storage in the data center going forward. It's probably growing a little bit faster than HDD, but not in a way where you're looking at one is a substitute for the other. They're highly complementary technologies, and we expect that to be the case for any useful planning horizon in the future. We look at a decade out. The cost differences are still significant, and that's certainly the way we talk to our customers about how they're building mass scale data centers.

    我們還預計數據中心的企業級 SSD 存儲將繼續增長。它的增長速度可能比 HDD 快一點,但並不是以一種方式替代另一種硬盤。它們是高度互補的技術,我們預計未來任何有用的規劃範圍都會如此。我們展望十年。成本差異仍然很大,這當然是我們與客戶談論他們如何構建大規模數據中心的方式。

  • Shannon Siemsen Cross - Research Analyst

    Shannon Siemsen Cross - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And Wissam, can you talk a little bit about OpEx? How you're thinking about it relative to maybe a more normalized level? And how much loan for the model as revenues come back before you have to start spending more from an OpEx perspective?

    好的。偉大的。 Wissam,您能談談運營支出嗎?相對於更正常化的水平,您如何看待它?當收入回來之後,從運營支出的角度來看,您必須開始增加支出之前,為該模型提供多少貸款?

  • Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

    Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, sure. So on OpEx, you saw we continue to manage it very, very tightly in fiscal Q4. We ended at $582 million, which is around $180 million lower than the same quarter last year. As to your question, over the near term, I think we're within sort of the range where we expect to be. But as the business starts coming back, there could be some small increase as we start layering up some of the variable expenses on that.

    是的,當然。因此,在運營支出方面,您會看到我們在第四財季繼續非常非常嚴格地管理它。最終營收為 5.82 億美元,比去年同期減少約 1.8 億美元。至於你的問題,在短期內,我認為我們處於我們預期的範圍內。但隨著業務開始恢復,當我們開始在此基礎上增加一些可變費用時,可能會出現一些小幅增長。

  • However, we should never -- we shouldn't expect the increase in OpEx to be faster than the increase in revenue. And so we would be monitoring that, and it will be gradual. And similarly, if there's a need for us to take additional action on OpEx to continue to manage very tightly. We also have some room to do that.

    然而,我們永遠不應該期望運營支出的增長速度快於收入的增長速度。因此,我們將對此進行監控,並且這將是漸進的。同樣,如果我們需要對運營支出採取額外行動,以繼續進行非常嚴格的管理。我們也有一些空間可以做到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri)。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • I had 2, Wissam. The first one is on underutilization charges. And it's kind of like a 2-part question. So the first is what's the current utilization in NAND? And then on the HDD side, is there kind of a mild post as to where these could start to go away? Because you're guiding $70 million for September for underutilization in HDD. It sounds like it goes to maybe 60 to 65 in December quarter. But when does it go away because you started to take underutilization charges. I think when HDD revenue went sub $2 billion per quarter. So do we have to get all the way back to $2 billion a quarter to have those HDD underutilization charges go away?

    我有2個,維薩姆。第一個是關於未充分利用費用。這有點像一個由兩部分組成的問題。首先是 NAND 目前的利用率是多少?然後在硬盤方面,是否有一個溫和的帖子來說明這些問題可能會從哪裡開始消失?因為您預計 9 月份的 HDD 利用率為 7,000 萬美元。聽起來 12 月季度可能會達到 60 到 65。但它什麼時候會因為您開始收取未充分利用費用而消失。我想當 HDD 收入每季度低於 20 億美元時。那麼,我們是否必須每季度將費用全部恢復到 20 億美元才能消除 HDD 未充分利用的費用?

  • Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

    Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. So Tim, with respect to the Flash side, we continue to make these decisions on an ongoing basis. And from the numbers, you can tell the underutilization related charges were are projected to be roughly flat from Q4 to Q1. As for HDD, I think the math is -- your math on Q1 is close to where the guidance is. But I think in the December quarter, think of the underutilization charges going, let's say, from Q1 to Q2 going down 5% or 10% and all of that decrease coming from HDD, you start seeing some declines basically in the HDD underutilization in the December quarter.

    好的。因此,蒂姆,對於 Flash 方面,我們將繼續持續做出這些決定。從這些數字中,您可以看出與未充分利用相關的費用預計從第四季度到第一季度大致持平。至於 HDD,我認為數學是 - 你對第一季度的數學接近指導值。但我認為在 12 月份的季度,考慮到未充分利用的費用,比方說,從第一季度到第二季度下降了 5% 或 10%,所有這些下降都來自 HDD,您開始看到基本上 HDD 未充分利用的一些下降十二月季度。

  • And based on what we see today, it's a bit too early to talk about the second half of the fiscal year 2024. But to the point you were making around the $2 billion revenue mark, we don't need to get to the $2 billion revenue mark to really fully utilize our capacity. If you recall, we've restructured quite a bit of our manufacturing capacity in the Hard Drive business, and we continue to take and optimize that fixed cost aspect of the cost structure. And so we can be fully utilized at a lower level than $2 billion, given the current cost structure.

    根據我們今天看到的情況,現在談論 2024 財年下半年還為時過早。但就目前的收入大關而言,我們不需要達到 20 億美元收入大關才能真正充分發揮我們的能力。如果您還記得的話,我們已經重組了硬盤業務中的大量製造能力,並且我們繼續採取和優化成本結構的固定成本方面。因此,考慮到當前的成本結構,我們可以在低於 20 億美元的水平上充分利用。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • And then just on the debt service cost. So you have the convert due in February. I think that's at a pretty good rate. I think it's at 1.5%. So the debt you're going to replace that with, I imagine, is going to be pretty expensive. So it seems sort of -- I guess my question is sort of where does that leave you in the cap structure? Obviously, it seems like debt service costs are going to go up maybe $20 million a quarter once you have to issue new debt for that. So can you just talk about sort of how you solve for all that?

    然後就是償債成本。所以你的轉換期是二月。我認為這是一個相當不錯的比率。我認為是1.5%。因此,我想,你要用來取代它的債務將會非常昂貴。所以這看起來有點——我想我的問題是,這會讓你在上限結構中處於什麼位置?顯然,一旦你必須為此發行新的債務,償債成本似乎每個季度都會增加 2000 萬美元。那麼你能談談你是如何解決這一切的嗎?

  • Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

    Wissam G. Jabre - Executive VP & CFO

  • So yes, the current rate on the convert is 1.5%. And given where the interest rate environment is today, I would expect that to be replaced by that -- when replaced by that to be roughly more expensive than that. So look, it's a little bit too early to talk about it in a lot of details, but this is something that is definitely a focus for us as we think through the various options that are available to us. With respect to refinancing, for instance, we look at the potential cost of capital and our goal is to make sure that we maintain a lower cost of capital to the extent possible. But I expect it to be slightly up from here, all said.

    所以是的,目前的轉換利率是 1.5%。考慮到當今的利率環境,我預計它會被那個取代——當被那個取代時,其成本大約會比那個更昂貴。所以看,現在談論很多細節還為時過早,但這絕對是我們在考慮可用的各種選項時關注的焦點。例如,在再融資方面,我們會考慮潛在的資本成本,我們的目標是確保盡可能保持較低的資本成本。但總而言之,我預計它會比現在略有上升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Ananda Baruah 與 Loop Capital 的對話。

  • Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

    Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

  • Yes. Thanks, guys. Appreciate you taking the question. really just -- 2 quick ones, if I could. When would you expect terabyte and maybe I'll even through 28 in there since you mentioned it, David, there each crossover. And then I just have a quick follow-up to that.

    是的。多謝你們。感謝您提出問題。如果可以的話,真的只是 - 2 個快速的。你什麼時候會期望太字節,也許我什至會在那裡度過 28,因為你提到了它,大衛,每個交叉。然後我就快速跟進一下。

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Crossover as -- look, let me say that -- there's a lot of -- there's multiple different capacity points. So I think we need to maybe talk about this a little bit different. It doesn't just move from 1, '16, '18, maybe like it did 2, 3 years ago. Now there's a bit of distribution of different customers and what kind of technologies they're using, whether it's 20 or 22 or 26 or going to 28 or even some 24. So as I look at where things are going to be in the next couple of quarters, you're going to see a pretty even distribution across 3 or 4 different capacity points, all of them shipping 0.5 million or more drive. So we expect a very substantial ramp of 26. I don't want to take away from the ramp that's going to happen there. It's going to be very quick and very rapid now that it's qualified and getting close to being a leading capacity point in the next couple of quarters.

    交叉——看,讓我說——有很多——有多個不同的容量點。所以我認為我們可能需要以稍微不同的方式來討論這個問題。它不只是從 1、16、18 年開始,也許就像 2、3 年前那樣。現在,不同客戶的分佈情況以及他們使用的技術類型有所不同,無論是 20 種、22 種還是 26 種,還是 28 種甚至 24 種。因此,當我考慮接下來的情況時,情況會怎樣在幾個季度中,您將看到 3 或 4 個不同容量點的分佈相當均勻,所有這些點都運送 50 萬或更多的驅動器。因此,我們預計會有 26 個非常大的坡道。我不想取消那裡將要發生的坡道。既然它已經合格並且在接下來的幾個季度中接近成為領先的產能點,那麼它的速度將會非常快。

  • Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

    Ananda Prosad Baruah - MD

  • Thanks for making the distinction. That's actually really helpful. And the follow-up is, do you guys have any view yet, any opinion, on when things normalize out in hard drives, if the hyperscalers return to what their classic utilization levels have been historically, how they run the capacity? Or do you think they settle in somewhat different on the utilization?

    感謝您做出區分。這實際上非常有幫助。後續問題是,對於硬盤驅動器何時恢復正常,如果超大規模廠商恢復到歷史上的經典利用率水平,他們如何運行容量,你們有什麼看法嗎?或者您認為他們在利用率上有一些不同嗎?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • Look, I think anytime you go through a period like this, there's some work done on optimization of the infrastructure and consolidation, I think that's happening. But I would expect things -- you go through that and you just incrementally get better. Like anything in technology, you're constantly improving, constantly getting more efficient. I think that, that is something that's always going to go on and we're still going to see the growth in exabytes on top of that. So I think we're still looking at 20%, 25% exabyte growth in the HDD business. And I think we clearly haven't seen that in the last year, but we know it's a cyclical business, and we expect to get back to those levels.

    看,我認為任何時候你經歷這樣的時期,都會在基礎設施優化和整合方面完成一些工作,我認為這種情況正在發生。但我希望事情會發生——你經歷了這些,你就會逐漸變得更好。就像技術領域的任何事物一樣,您需要不斷改進,不斷提高效率。我認為,這種情況會一直持續下去,而且我們仍然會看到艾字節的增長。因此,我認為 HDD 業務仍有望實現 20%、25% 艾字節的增長。我認為我們在去年顯然沒有看到這種情況,但我們知道這是一個週期性業務,我們預計會回到這些水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our last question is going to come from the line of Karl Ackerman, before we have a short statement by our CEO.

    在我們的首席執行官發表簡短聲明之前,我們的最後一個問題將來自卡爾·阿克曼。

  • Karl Ackerman - Research Analyst

    Karl Ackerman - Research Analyst

  • Could you discuss how we should think about a recovery in nearline units and unit pricing as you and your peer implement a build-to-order process? And as you address that question, can you discuss how this build-to-order process may differ from long-term agreements signed in 2021 that were a bit challenging to implement over time?

    您能否討論一下,當您和您的同行實施按訂單生產流程時,我們應該如何考慮近線單位和單位定價的複蘇?當您回答這個問題時,您能否討論一下這種按訂單生產流程與 2021 年簽署的長期協議有何不同,這些協議隨著時間的推移實施起來有點困難?

  • David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

    David V. Goeckeler - CEO & Director

  • So units, I expect to recover, right? I mean we're going to get exabyte growth. We're at a low point on units. We expect units to recover and get back to where they were and eclipse that actually as we continue to get exabyte growth. I'll put in say, a once again, I am very excited about generative AI. I know everybody is. But I think it's going to come to our world on storage once all this gets deployed. And so I expect to see units recover.

    所以單位,我預計會恢復,對吧?我的意思是我們將獲得艾字節的增長。我們的單位數量處於低點。我們預計單位將恢復並回到原來的位置,並且隨著我們繼續獲得艾字節的增長,實際上會黯然失色。我要再說一遍,我對生成式人工智能感到非常興奮。我知道每個人都是。但我認為,一旦所有這些都得到部署,它就會以存儲的形式出現在我們的世界中。所以我希望看到單位恢復。

  • I think the build-to-order process is going to be a fairly straightforward process because we have deep relationships with set of customers here. It's a big market. It's a big relationship. And I think it's just getting the business model to a place where there's better alignment between the infrastructure we have in place. Again, we've been talking about this for many years now that in a lot of ways, cloud has significantly benefited from the reduction in client and there's been a consistent availability of infrastructure to build hard drives.

    我認為按訂單生產的過程將是一個相當簡單的過程,因為我們與這裡的客戶有著深厚的關係。這是一個很大的市場。這是一個很大的關係。我認為這只是讓商業模式達到我們現有的基礎設施之間更好的一致性。同樣,我們多年來一直在談論這個問題,在很多方面,雲從客戶端的減少中受益匪淺,並且構建硬盤驅動器的基礎設施的可用性始終如一。

  • And we're at the end of that transition now, so we have to just have more planning around that. I think the long-term agreements were a step into that. I think this is maybe the next step into how do we run our franchise to make sure we've got the best alignment between delivering a great product and value proposition to our customers, which is extremely important, the storage is an incredibly important part of the data center and making sure that we have the right infrastructure in place to fuel that growth. So I expect it to be a pretty natural change or evolution of the business model, and I expect it to be very positive on all sides.

    我們現在正處於過渡的尾聲,因此我們必須圍繞這一點制定更多計劃。我認為長期協議是邁向這一目標的一步。我認為這可能是我們如何經營我們的特許經營權的下一步,以確保我們在向客戶提供優質產品和價值主張之間取得最佳平衡,這一點非常重要,存儲是非常重要的一部分數據中心,並確保我們擁有適當的基礎設施來推動增長。因此,我預計這將是商業模式的一個非常自然的變化或演變,並且我預計它在各方面都會非常積極。

  • All right, everyone. Thanks for joining the call. We look forward to talking to you all throughout the quarter. Take care.

    好吧,大家。感謝您加入通話。我們期待在整個季度與您交談。小心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。