聯華電子 (UMC) 2004 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to UMC's third quarter 2004 earnings results conference call.

歡迎參加聯電 2004 年第三季財報電話會議。

Please be aware that each of your lines are in a listen-only mode.

請注意，您的每條線路均處於僅監聽模式。

At the conclusion of the presentation, there will be time for a question-and-answer session.

演講結束後，將有時間進行問答環節。

At that time, instructions will be given about how to proceed with your questions.

屆時，將給予有關如何處理您的問題的說明。

For your information, this call is being broadcast live over the Internet.

供您參考，本次電話會議正在透過網路進行現場直播。

A replay of the call will be available at www.umc.com under the Investor Relations Investor Events section until Tuesday, December 28, 2004.

電話會議的重播將於 2004 年 12 月 28 日星期二之前在 www.umc.com 的投資者關係投資者活動部分提供。

Also, a telephone replay of the call will be available from 11:00 a.m.

此外，將從上午 11 點開始提供電話重播。

Eastern Standard Time today, until midnight on the 28th of October, Eastern Standard Time.

東部標準時間今天，直至東部標準時間 10 月 28 日午夜。

To access the replay, please call 888-203-1112 or 719-457-0820 if you're calling from outside the United States.

若要觀看重播，請致電 888-203-1112 或 719-457-0820（如果您從美國境外致電）。

The access code will be 851125 any time during this period.

在此期間的任何時間，訪問代碼均為 851125。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Chitung Liu.

現在請劉啟東先生主持會議。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Welcome, and thank you very much for attending our third quarter earnings conference call.

歡迎並非常感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。

We are hosting this conference call from Taipei, and here to help report our results are Mr. Jackson Hu, CEO, and Mr. Stan Hung, CFO.

我們在台北主持這次電話會議，執行長 Jackson Hu 先生和財務長 Stan Hung 先生將協助報告我們的表現。

Before beginning this presentation, I would like to remind everyone of our Safe Harbor policy.

在開始本演講之前，我想提醒大家我們的安全港政策。

Certain statements made during the course of the discussion today may constitute forward-looking statements which are based on Management's current expectations and beliefs, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including risks that may be beyond the Company's control.

今天討論過程中做出的某些陳述可能構成前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期和信念，並受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，包括可能的風險超出公司的控制範圍。

For this brief (ph), please refer to UMC's filing with the SEC in the U.S. and the ROC Security authorities.

有關此摘要 (ph)，請參閱 UMC 向美國 SEC 和中華民國安全機構提交的文件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to today's speaker, Mr. Jackson Hu, CEO of UMC.

現在我想把會議交給今天的演講者，聯華電子執行長胡志明先生。

Thank you, Chitung.

謝謝你，吉東。

Hello, everyone.

大家好。

Thank you for joining us today, and we appreciate your interest in UMC.

感謝您今天加入我們，我們感謝您對聯華電子的興趣。

As usual, I will start with a brief summary of our operating results for the third quarter of 2004.

像往常一樣，我首先簡要總結我們 2004 年第三季的經營業績。

I assume that you have all seen our press release by now and therefore, I will keep my remarks short.

我想你們現在都已經看到了我們的新聞稿，因此我的發言將簡短一些。

Following this summary, I will review the outlook and guidance for the fourth quarter of 2004.

在此總結之後，我將回顧 2004 年第四季的前景和指導。

And following this we will leave the rest of the time for your questions.

接下來我們將剩下的時間留給大家提問。

Now, for Q3 summary.

現在，進行第三季總結。

In the third quarter of 2004, our quarter-over-quarter revenue increased 18.5 percent to $34.6 billion NT, or $1.02 billion U.S.

2004 年第三季度，我們的營收季增了 18.5%，達到 346 億新台幣，即 10.2 億美元。

This was a quarterly record for UMC and it reflects strong demand at the macrolevel.

這是聯電的季度記錄，反映了宏觀層面的強勁需求。

For our business, it also demonstrates successful execution of expanding capacity, increasing wafer shipments, and improving wafer price through better product mix.

對於我們的業務來說，這也證明了透過更好的產品組合擴大產能、增加晶圓出貨量以及提高晶圓價格的成功執行。

Quarter-over-quarter operating income increased 15.1 percent to $8.7 billion NT or $257 million U.S.

營業收入較上季成長 15.1%，達到 87 億新台幣（即 2.57 億美元）。

Quarter-over-quarter net income decreased by 14.1 percent to $10.9 billion NT or $321 million U.S.

淨收入季減 14.1%，至 109 億新台幣（約 3.21 億美元）。

This decrease is slightly misleading.

這種下降略有誤導性。

It seems we have a large number of investment disposals that were recorded as non-operating income gains in the second quarter.

看來我們有大量的投資處分在第二季被記錄為營業外收入收益。

Our operations were very strong, as I mentioned earlier.

正如我之前提到的，我們的業務非常強勁。

And, additionally, year-over-year net income increased 159 percent which shows substantial -- which shows how substantial our growth has been this year.

此外，淨利潤年增了 159%，成長幅度相當大——這表明我們今年的成長有多麼可觀。

The blended average selling price rose 5 percent compared to the previous quarter, which was slightly higher than previously provided guidance.

混合平均售價較上一季上漲 5%，略高於先前提供的指引。

And quarter-over-quarter shipments of 8-inch equivalent wafers increased by 11.4 percent to 791,000 wafers.

8吋等效晶圓出貨量較上季成長11.4%，達到79.1萬片。

The percentage of revenues from .1-micron and the below technologies have increased to 60 percent this quarter, including 18 percent from .13-micron, and 2 percent from 90-nanometer.

本季來自 0.1 微米及以下技術的收入百分比已增至 60%，其中 18% 來自 0.13 微米，2% 來自 90 奈米。

In summary, we had another very strong quarter, despite the fact that some customers started the inventory correction in late Q3.

總而言之，儘管一些客戶在第三季末開始進行庫存調整，但我們又度過了一個非常強勁的季度。

Now, let's turn to guidance for the fourth quarter of 2004.

現在，讓我們來看看 2004 年第四季的指導。

We are expecting total wafer shipments to decrease by approximately 15 to 17 percent.

我們預計晶圓總出貨量將減少約 15% 至 17%。

The average selling price, or ASP, of our wafers is expected to stay flat.

我們晶圓的平均售價（ASP）預計將保持穩定。

Capacity utilization is expected to be approximately 70 percent.

產能利用率預計約 70%。

Please note that this includes the new capacity that is coming onstream in the fourth quarter.

請注意，這包括第四季度即將投產的新產能。

As a matter of fact, to remind everyone, in the third quarter, we had 18.5 percent capacity increase over Q2.

事實上，提醒大家的是，第三季度，我們的產能比第二季度成長了18.5%。

And again from Q3 to Q4, we will have another 9 percent capacity expansion.

從第三季到第四季度，我們將再次擴大 9% 的產能。

So, the mix, the utilization looks lower.

因此，綜合來看，利用率看起來較低。

Gross margin in the fourth quarter is expected to decline by 10 percent due to lower loading in the wafer shipments.

由於晶圓出貨量下降，預計第四季毛利率將下降 10%。

In operation of a fab, loading is one of the most important factors for cost, and in Q4 we're affected by loading due to inventory correction.

在晶圓廠的營運中，負載是影響成本的最重要因素之一，第四季度我們由於庫存調整而受到負載的影響。

The percentage of revenue from .18-micron and the below technology is expected to be in the mid 60 percentage-- percent range.

0.18 微米及以下技術的收入百分比預計將在 60% 左右。

The percentage of revenue from 90-nanometer is expected to exceed 5 percent.

90奈米營收佔比預計將超過5%。

From application standpoint, we are expecting that that the PC market to show relatively -- relative strengths due to seasonal demand, followed by communication, and then the consumer sector.

從應用的角度來看，我們預期個人電腦市場將因季節性需求而表現出相對優勢，其次是通訊市場，然後是消費領域。

So, basically in the fourth quarter, almost all of our customers including broadband, cell phone, DVD, CFC (ph), PC and et cetera, are correcting inventories.

所以，基本上在第四季度，我們幾乎所有的客戶，包括寬頻、手機、DVD、CFC(ph)、PC等等，都在修正庫存。

Our information indicates that the inventory level this time is much lower than that in 2001.

我們的資料顯示，這次的庫存水準遠低於2001年。

Therefore, many customers think the correction is short term, ranging from 1 to three-quarters.

因此，許多客戶認為調整是短期的，幅度從一到四分之三不等。

I would also like to use this opportunity to state our views about the future of semiconductor industry, and especially the foundry industry, because it seems that it causes a lot of concern recently.

我也想藉此機會談談我們對半導體產業未來的看法，特別是代工產業，因為最近似乎引起了很多關注。

First of all, from applications point of view, our world is moving quickly toward digital wireless, mobile, and personal.

首先，從應用的角度來看，我們的世界正快速走向數位無線、行動和個人化。

Every day we see evolving new products in world of communications, digital entertainment, or the mobile electronics, and so on and so forth.

我們每天都會看到通訊、數位娛樂或行動電子產品等領域不斷發展的新產品。

This trend will demand an increasing amount of semiconductor.

這一趨勢將需要越來越多的半導體。

According to Semico Research that even due to inventory correction, worldwide wafer demand next year will still grow, but it will reduce to 5.5 percent.

Semico Research表示，即使由於庫存調整，明年全球晶圓需求仍將成長，但將減少至5.5%。

And the end demand will recover from 2006 to 2008.

2006年至2008年終端需求將會恢復。

The IBM business model carries both inventory risk and excess capacity risk, and it takes a tremendous amount of capital investment for building advanced 12-inch fab.

IBM的商業模式同時存在庫存風險和產能過剩風險，建造先進的12吋晶圓廠需要大量的資金投入。

Therefore, more and more IDMS are outsourcing to foundry.

因此，越來越多的IDMS外包給晶圓代工廠。

It is expected that foundry will have a higher gross rate relative to the semiconductor average.

預計代工相對於半導體平均值將有更高的毛利率。

According to Data Quest, foundry will grow at 18 percent, compound annual growth rate between 2003 and 2010.

根據 Data Quest 預測，2003 年至 2010 年間，晶圓代工廠將以 18% 的複合年增長率成長。

Also, barriers to entry for advanced process technology and IP development are high.

此外，先進製程技術和智慧財產權開發的進入障礙也很高。

Therefore, it requires continuous and large investment in R&D.

因此，需要持續、大量的研發投入。

For example, this year, UMC will invest more than 7 billion NT, or more than $206 million in U.S. in R&D.

例如，今年聯電將在美國研發投資超過70億新台幣，即超過2.06億美元。

Because foundry business has higher gross rate, it attracts new players.

由於代工業務毛利率較高，因此吸引了新的參與者。

And in order to get business, many new players adopted a low pricing strategy.

而為了獲得業務，許多新玩家採取了低價策略。

It is a fact that this has caused pricing pressure in the industry.

這給行業帶來了定價壓力，這是事實。

However, in our opinion, such an approach can only last for a short period of time.

但我們認為，這種做法只能持續很短一段時間。

If a company cannot make good profit and provide good return to investors, how could it attract additional funding for expansion?

如果一家公司無法獲得良好的利潤並為投資者提供良好的回報，它如何吸引額外的資金擴張？

On the contrary, UMC has more than $3 billion U.S. in liquidable asset.

相反，聯華電子擁有超過 30 億美元的流動資產。

We can expand capacity without borrowing money or raising capital.

我們可以在不借錢或籌集資金的情況下擴大產能。

Many newcomers do not invest in R&D.

許多新來者不投資研發。

They chose to copy others' technology.

他們選擇複製別人的技術。

Such companies can never become a leader because they cannot start the copy work unless other companies are ready.

這樣的公司永遠不可能成為領導者，因為除非其他公司準備好，否則他們無法開始複製工作。

And they run into the risk of infringing others intellectual property.

他們也面臨侵犯他人智慧財產權的風險。

So, only those who lead in advanced process technology and IP development can be winners.

因此，只有在先進製程技術和IP開發方面處於領先地位的企業才能成為贏家。

So, after one year's intense efforts, UMC has made significant progress in yield enhancement, process technology development, understanding of system and architecture for SOC designs, IT development, EDA and design support.

因此，經過一年的努力，聯華電子在良率提升、製程技術開發、對SOC設計的系統和架構的理解、IT開發、EDA和設計支援方面都取得了重大進展。

Our major customers include the leaders in every application category.

我們的主要客戶包括各個應用程式類別的領導者。

Our 90-nanometer has been in production in both 8-inch and 12-inch fabs.

我們的 90 奈米已在 8 吋和 12 吋晶圓廠投入生產。

It will contribute to about 5 percent of our revenue in Q4 and will gross (indiscernible) next year.

它將占我們第四季度收入的 5% 左右，並將在明年實現總收入（難以辨認）。

So, we are very optimistic about the foundry industry future, and we're very confident about our own overall competitiveness.

所以，我們對鑄造業的未來非常看好，對自己的整體競爭力也非常有信心。

So, I will conclude my remarks here, and operator, now let's open the discussion for questions.

那麼我的發言就到此結束，操作員現在開始討論問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Today's question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically.

今天的問答環節將以電子方式進行。

If you would like to ask a question, you may do so by simply pressing the star key, followed by the digit 1, on your touchtone telephone.

如果您想提問，只需按按鍵式電話上的星號鍵，然後按數字 1 即可。

Do keep in mind that if you're using a speaker phone, please ensure your mute function has been turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment.

請記住，如果您使用揚聲器電話，請確保您的靜音功能已關閉，以便您的訊號到達我們的裝置。

Once again, that's star, 1, to ask a question.

再說一次，這是星號，1，提出問題。

We'll pause for just a moment to assemble our roster.

我們將暫停片刻來集合我們的名單。

Once again, we're pausing to assemble our roster.

我們再一次停下來集合我們的名單。

Our first question will come from Robert Mayer with Needham.

我們的第一個問題將由羅伯特·梅耶爾和李約瑟提出。

Robert Mayer, your line is open.

羅伯特·梅耶爾，您的線路已接通。

Yeah, if we could get a little bit more detail , you mentioned in your comments that the weakness or the reduction in inventory was broad-based.

是的，如果我們能獲得更多細節，您在評論中提到庫存的疲軟或減少是廣泛的。

We've heard from others that it was more specific to consumer.

我們從其他人那裡聽說它更針對消費者。

So could you give us a little more granularity on that, perhaps by application or geography, or is it truly flat across the board?

那麼您能否給我們更詳細的信息，也許是透過應用程式或地理位置，或者它真的是全面平坦的嗎？

Our observation is pretty much across the board.

我們的觀察幾乎是全面的。

As I stated earlier, that consumer products will be weak, and we did see inventory correction significantly.

正如我之前所說，消費品將疲軟，我們確實看到庫存大幅調整。

And the second group is communication.

第二組是溝通。

I believe that there is some (indiscernible) inventory on the cell phone side, especially the second tier.

我相信手機方面有一些（難以辨別的）庫存，尤其是第二梯隊。

And broadband was affected as well, you know, followed by PC.

你知道，寬頻也受到了影響，其次是個人電腦。

And in terms of technology breakdown, .18-micron and .25-micron were affected the most.

從技術細分來看，0.18微米和0.25微米受到的影響最大。

Ok.

好的。

And one quick question on utilization.

還有一個關於利用率的快速問題。

You're guiding to 70 percent utilization and you had mentioned your capacity had increased by roughly 20 percent and also by 10 percent.

您正在指導 70% 的利用率，並且您提到您的容量增加了大約 20% 和 10%。

So, does that suggest that the utilization or loading will be similar to what it was sort of around the end of the June quarter?

那麼，這是否表明利用率或負載將與六月季度末左右的情況類似？

Yeah.

是的。

It will be similar.

將會是相似的。

Ok.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Now, we'll move to Dan Heyler with Merrill Lynch.

現在，我們將轉向美林證券的丹海勒。

I wanted to talk quickly on your commentary with regard to the decline in the fourth quarter by end market.

我想快速談談您對終端市場第四季下滑的評論。

You listed the order of decline there.

您在那裡列出了拒絕的順序。

Did you mean that the -- each one of those segments would be declining significantly?

您的意思是說，這些細分市場中的每一個都會大幅下降嗎？

It's just that PCs is declining to greater magnitude or are you seeing any area where there is growth?

只是個人電腦的下降幅度更大，或者您看到任何成長的領域？

Actually, I was saying the consumer declined the most, followed by communications and the PC actually was stronger.

實際上，我是說消費者下降最多，其次是通信，而個人電腦實際上更強大。

With regard to the fourth quarter?

關於第四季？

Yeah.

是的。

In the fourth quarter.

在第四季。

Ok.

好的。

And as you talk to your customers, when they talk about inventories, what area do they say or do you sense would start to come to the end of the correction process first?

當您與客戶交談時，當他們談論庫存時，他們會說哪些領域，或者您是否認為糾正過程將首先開始結束？

Obviously, consumer was highest and-- earlier in the year.

顯然，今年早些時候消費者的消費量最高。

Yeah, actually, it varies.

是的，實際上，情況有所不同。

For example, one large customer indicated that their inventory -- they may need three-quarters to deplete.

例如，一位大客戶表示，他們的庫存可能需要四分之三才能耗盡。

Another consumer customer, large consumer customer, says that they have -- they have a product portfolio, and the high end actually has some inventory and will take longer to deplete.

另一位消費者客戶、大型消費者客戶表示，他們有一個產品組合，高端產品實際上有一些庫存，需要更長的時間才能耗盡。

So it varies.

所以它有所不同。

Ok.

好的。

So it is hard to generalize which area you would start to see normalize first, then, by end market?

因此，很難概括哪個領域會先開始正常化，然後是終端市場？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Ok.

好的。

What about in the wireless space, though?

那麼在無線領域呢？

The inventory issues there were well reported fairly early.

那裡的庫存問題很早就得到了很好的報導。

And you guys still get a lot of the outsource business there.

你們仍然在那裡獲得了大量的外包業務。

Any signs that that may start to come back, say, in the first quarter, any sense of that?

有任何跡象表明這種情況可能會在第一季開始捲土重來，有什麼意義嗎？

Do you think that will be more second quarter?

您認為第二季會更多嗎？

I mentioned earlier that what we saw as the second-tier guys, for example, have more inventory than the leading companies.

我之前提到過，例如，我們所看到的二線企業的庫存比領先企業更多。

But the correction is across the board, and it is too early to predict Q1.

但調整是全面的，現在預測第一季還為時過早。

We will need more time.

我們需要更多時間。

Ok.

好的。

So, you don't have a sense of the timetable for the wireless correction?

那麼，您不知道無線校正的時間表嗎？

Your customers don't have a sense of when that would normalize either, yet?

您的客戶還不知道這種情況何時會恢復正常嗎？

We don't have very clear signal from them yet.

我們還沒有從他們那裡得到非常明確的訊號。

Now moving on to Matt Gabelle from Calypso Capital.

現在轉向來自 Calypso Capital 的 Matt Gabelle。

I was wondering if you could describe what you're seeing in terms of orders, wafers starts.

我想知道您能否描述一下您在訂單、晶圓開始方面所看到的情況。

Are they still declining slightly?

他們還在小幅下降嗎？

Are they stable now?

他們現在穩定了嗎？

Q4 is pretty much stabilized.

第四季基本穩定。

Okay.

好的。

And you said -- consumer.

你說——消費者。

You said relatively that would be the weakest segment in Q4, relatively.

您說相對而言，這將是第四季度最薄弱的部分。

How would you describe the inventory in consumer relative to the inventory in the other 2 segments?

相對於其他兩個細分市場的庫存，您如何描述消費者的庫存？

Thank you.

謝謝。

It is hard to quantify it, and it is a very complex picture.

很難量化它，而且這是一幅非常複雜的圖景。

As I mentioned earlier, that even among the leaders, they have a product portfolio and the inventory level is not uniform among their own products.

正如我之前提到的，即使在領先者中，他們也有自己的產品組合，並且他們自己的產品之間的庫存水準並不統一。

So, I'm sorry, I cannot give you very quantified data.

所以，很抱歉，我無法給你非常量化的數據。

Okay.

好的。

One question -- one more question.

一個問題——還有一個問題。

Was there any gross margin guidance for Q4?

第四季有毛利率指引嗎？

I know there was operating margin guidance.

我知道有營業利潤率指導。

Yeah, it will be similar.

是的，會很相似。

We're looking for around 10 percentage point decline for both the gross margin level as well as the operating profit margin level.

我們預期毛利率水準和營業利潤率水準都會下降 10 個百分點左右。

Now moving on to Mehdi Hosseini with FDR Investment Bank.

現在轉向羅斯福投資銀行的邁赫迪·侯賽尼 (Mehdi Hosseini)。

Yes.

是的。

I just wanted to get a clarification on utilization rate.

我只是想了解一下利用率。

You made some comments here that business could recover by Q1.

您在這裡發表了一些評論，稱業務可能會在第一季恢復。

Did you earlier mention that by then, you would see the utilization recovering?

您之前是否提到過，到那時，您會看到利用率恢復？

And then, on the gross margin declining by 10 percent, to what extent is it (indiscernible) trading and could you elaborate on what's causing gross margin dropping by 10 points?

然後，毛利率下降10%，交易到什麼程度（聽不清楚）？您能詳細說明一下是什麼原因導致毛利率下降10%嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

As I said, the major factor for cost is in foundry loading.

正如我所說，成本的主要因素是鑄造廠的裝載。

So, when the loading reduces, the cost tends to be up and therefore, it affects the profitability.

因此，當裝載量減少時，成本往往會上升，進而影響獲利能力。

So, that's, in general, the principle for foundry business.

所以，這就是鑄造業務的一般原則。

If we guide, those ASPs tend to be flat, so the profit decline -- margin declines are all coming from the lower loading and lower shipments.

如果我們指導的話，這些平均售價往往持平，因此利潤下降——利潤率下降全部來自裝載量下降和出貨量下降。

And then on the utilization rate, if you could just clarify.

然後是利用率，請您澄清一下。

There was some reference that June level, which is -- I believe 100 percent, what was it in terms of timing -- what were you referring to?

有一些關於 6 月水準的參考，我相信 100%，就時間而言，您指的是什麼？

In terms of timing?

就時間而言？

I just want to get clarification.

我只是想得到澄清。

Were you saying that by Q1, you would see the utilization rate improving again from 70 percent?

您是說到第一季度，您會看到利用率從 70% 再次提高嗎？

No, we didn't say that.

不，我們沒這麼說。

We didn't say that.

我們沒這麼說。

What I said is that many customers believe the correction -- the inventory correction is a short-term.

我所說的是，很多客戶認為調整──庫存調整是短期的。

It may take 1 to 2 quarters, and at most, 3 quarters.

可能需要1到2個季度，最多3個季度。

That's exactly what I said.

我就是這麼說的。

So, based on your current capacity coming online, how would you see utilization rate as you exit 2004?

那麼，根據您目前的上線容量，您認為 2004 年退出時的使用率如何？

We will provide that data in the next quarterly meeting.

我們將在下一個季度會議上提供該數據。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We need more time.

我們需要更多時間。

Now moving on to to Shashili Jatili with Nomura Securities.

現在轉向野村證券的 Shashili Jatili。

Yeah, hi.

是的，嗨。

The roster, and this time a bit more on the broad range of CapEx guidance provided of 1 to 2 billion.

名單，這次提供了 1 至 20 億美元的廣泛資本支出指引。

How should we read into this?

我們該如何解讀這一點？

Does that assume that your CapEx spending in the first half of the year would be relatively minimal?

這是否假設您上半年的資本支出相對較少？

Okay.

好的。

Actually, we have already placed the orders this year for the equipment for next year.

事實上，我們今年已經下了明年的設備訂單。

And our capacity expansion plan for this year was 20K for 12 8 in Tainan, and the 10K for UMCI in Singapore.

我們今年的產能擴張計畫是台南12 8 2萬產能，新加坡UMCI 1萬產能。

Basically, we will meet those targets.

基本上，我們會實現這些目標。

But in the order that we place, equipment order we place, will have 23K for 12A in Tainan and the 14K for UMCI.

但在我們下的訂單中，我們下的設備訂單中，台南的 12A 為 23K，UMCI 為 14K。

So, totally basically, you can say that we have -- we will spend up to those numbers that I just described.

所以，基本上，你可以說我們已經——我們將花費我剛才描述的那些數字。

And that sort of sets the baseline spending for next year.

這設定了明年的基準支出。

And then beyond that, how quickly we will expand, as you can understand, depends a lot on the demand.

除此之外，正如您所知，我們的擴張速度在很大程度上取決於需求。

We will watch that on the monthly basis and make our decisions.

我們將每月觀察並做出決定。

Ok.

好的。

Can you just run those numbers again? (indiscernible) and UMCI.

你能再運行一次這些數字嗎？ （音訊不清楚）和 UMCI。

By when do you expect to add the 23K and 14K?

您預計什麼時候添加 23K 和 14K？

What is the time frame for that?

時間範圍是多少？

We have already placed orders up to 23K for Tainan fab, and then up to 14K for the UMCI fab.

我們已經為台南晶圓廠下了高達 23K 的訂單，然後為 UMCI 晶圓廠下了高達 14K 的訂單。

And those will incur in Q1 next year.

這些將在明年第一季發生。

When would the capacity increase?

什麼時候容量會增加？

When would this equipment be installed and be running?

該設備何時安裝並運作？

As I said, they will occur in -- incur in Q1 next year.

正如我所說，它們將發生在明年第一季。

Okay.

好的。

Also, what is your assumption for investment in UMCI next year?

另外，您對明年 UMCI 的投資有何假設？

Our investment?

我們的投資？

Oh, okay.

哦好的。

Actually, we are in a process of merging back, floating back UMCI in UMC.

事實上，我們正​​處於UMC的合併、浮回UMCI的過程中。

And that process is expected to finish before the end of this year, or in Q1 2005.

該過程預計將在今年年底或 2005 年第一季完成。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Does that mean that 1 to 2 million guidance you have given, it includes the funding required for UMCI?

這是否意味著您給予的 100 到 200 萬的指導，包括 UMCI 所需的資金？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Finally, on wireless segment you mentioned that some of the second tier customers have more (indiscernible) to the end handset customers.

最後，在無線領域，您提到有些二線客戶擁有更多（難以辨識的）終端手機客戶。

Are you referring to your direct customers?

您指的是您的直接客戶嗎？

I was referring to the end customers.

我指的是最終客戶。

And the decline in the wireless segment, is this largely coming from the IDM segment or fabless?

而無線領域的下滑，主要是來自IDM領域還是無晶圓廠領域？

Actually, I think it is from the second or -- not from the first tier IDM or fabless.

事實上，我認為它來自第二層或——而不是來自第一層 IDM 或無晶圓廠。

Now we'll take a question from Chang Klee (phonetic) with FormTechnologies (phonetic).

現在我們將回答來自 FormTechnologies（音標）的 Chang Klee（音標）的問題。

Looks like demand for your high end .01 (indiscernible) and below are still quite strong for your guidance.

看起來對您的高端 0.01（聽不清楚）及以下的需求對於您的指導來說仍然相當強勁。

And maybe you can give us some color also on the lower end of technology, you know.

也許你也可以給我們一些關於低端技術的信息，你知道。

Is the decrease in demand or is some other, lower end fab take away -- or foundry take away your market share?

是需求減少還是其他低端晶圓廠奪走了您的市場份額？或者代工廠奪走了您的市場份額？

First of all, I explained earlier that the-- our revenue contribution from our advanced process technology on the high end, such as .13-micron and 90-nanometer will continue to grow.

首先，我之前解釋過，0.13 微米和 90 奈米等高端先進製程技術對我們的收入貢獻將持續成長。

And I think that contributes the most of the increase for the .18-micron and the below technology category.

我認為這對 0.18 微米及以下技術類別的成長貢獻最大。

Technically, we don't see the second-tier or third-tier companies taking away our market share, even for the mature technologies.

從技術上講，即使技術成熟，我們也沒有看到二線或三線公司搶走我們的市場份額。

And we simply don't see that.

而我們根本看不到這一點。

Basically this demand weakened.

基本上這種需求減弱了。

Yeah.

是的。

And, as you know, for the foundry business, usually it is not easy, or you can say it's difficult, to switch from one foundry to another.

而且，如您所知，對於鑄造業務來說，從一家鑄造廠轉向另一家鑄造廠通常並不容易，或者可以說很難。

Now moving on to B. Shaw with J.P. Morgan.

現在轉向摩根大通 (J.P. Morgan) 的 B. Shaw。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

If I may seek a clarification on the information you gave out on the orders you already placed.

我可以要求您對您已下訂單的資訊進行澄清嗎？

So, up to 23 K means additional 3,000, right, for factory, and the--

因此，對於工廠來說，最多 23 K 意味著額外 3,000 個，對吧，而且——

Yes.

是的。

Right.

正確的。

And so the additional 3,000 for 12A and additional 4,000 for UMCI, that would not require 1 billion, I suppose.

因此，我認為 12A 需要額外 3,000 個，UMCI 需要額外 4,000 個，這不需要 10 億。

So, the minimum 1 billion CapEx, if you, let's say, spend 1 billion next year, where does it take your capacity to in those 2 fabs?

那麼，最低 10 億美元的資本支出，如果你明年花費 10 億美元，那麼這 2 座晶圓廠的產能會用到哪裡呢？

And if you spend 2 billion, where will the capacity go?

而如果花費20億，產能會去哪裡？

Okay.

好的。

A quick way to-- for estimation is that it may take 3 to $3.6 billion U.S., or 40,000 wafer capacity.

一個快速的估計是，這可能需要 300 至 36 億美元，或 40,000 片晶圓產能。

So, you can take average and calculate it that way for 1 billion.

所以，你可以取平均值並這樣計算 10 億。

Ok.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The second question I have is on this impairment for consolidating UMCI.

我的第二個問題是關於合併 UMCI 的這種損害。

Can you explain why that's occurring?

你能解釋為什麼會發生這種情況嗎？

We're going to acquire 100 percent of the UMCI by end of Q1 next year, and as a result, UMCI will be liquidated sometime in the following few months.

我們將在明年第一季末收購 UMCI 100% 的股份，因此，UMCI 將在接下來幾個月的某個時候進行清算。

Once the company's liquidating, we're going to take a one-time charge, take the loss from the price we are paying versus the book value.

一旦公司清算，我們將收取一次性費用，從我們支付的價格與帳面價值中扣除損失。

So 3.5 billion is the premium we pay to the Singapore government as well as the remaining 5 percent shareholders in total.

所以35億是我們支付給新加坡政府以及剩下的5%股東的溢價。

We're going to take this in one quarter.

我們將在一個季度內解決這個問題。

All right.

好的。

The remaining 5 percent would be employees?

剩下的百分之五是員工嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Mostly employee of UMCI.

大部分是 UMCI 的員工。

Ok.

好的。

And on the 90-nanometer is progressing quite nicely in the fourth quarter.

第四季 90 奈米進展相當順利。

Can you -- using that, or just in general, I think you had also mentioned some industrial forecasts for next year in terms of year for demand growth.

您能否使用這一點，或者只是一般性地，我認為您還提到了明年需求成長的一些工業預測。

Will you, you know, care to provide some sort of estimate for the area of growth you can expect for UMC?

您是否願意對聯華電子的預期成長領域提供某種估計？

No, we don't do any forecast.

不，我們不做任何預測。

We can only provide a quarterly forecast.

我們只能提供季度預測。

All right.

好的。

Do you see any other products [inaudible] your 90-nanometer business in '05?

您在 05 年的 90 奈米業務中還看到其他產品嗎？[聽不清楚]？

Yeah.

是的。

We see obligations including FPGA, graphics, cell phone, 3G base bands. and some high-end consumer products embracing 90-nanometer.

我們看到的義務包括 FPGA、圖形、手機、3G 基頻。以及一些擁抱90奈米的高端消費產品。

Right.

正確的。

You also mentioned the strong cash balance and so on.

您還提到了強勁的現金餘額等等。

So, I guess the question is if you have any plans for cash dividend?

那我想問題是你們有沒有現金分紅的計畫？

That's something that we will consider.

這是我們會考慮的事情。

And you know, by the time we do that, we'll let you know.

你知道，當我們這樣做時，我們會通知你。

And now we'll hear from Ashish Kamar with Credit Suisse First Boston.

現在我們將聽取瑞士信貸第一波士頓公司 Ashish Kamar 的演講。

Starting with the 90-nanometer where you're doing exceptionally well.

從 90 奈米開始，您做得非常好。

But could you throw some light on planned concentration, that is, the number one, number two, minimum of 3 clients (indiscernible) of your 90-nanometer.

但您能否透露一下計劃的集中度，即您的 90 奈米的第一、第二、最少 3 個客戶端（難以辨認）。

We cannot provide that.

我們無法提供這一點。

We cannot provide customer information unless they're willing to disclose it.

除非客戶願意披露，否則我們無法提供客戶資訊。

And would it be fair to say that the planned concentration for 90-nanometer for shipment is quite high.

公平地說，90 奈米出貨計畫的集中度相當高。

That is, few clients, maybe to account for most of the 90-nanometer revenue?

也就是說，很少有客戶，也許佔據了 90 奈米收入的大部分？

They were 2 clients that announced that they are in production at UMC.

他們是宣佈在 UMC 投入生產的 2 位客戶。

And those are Xilinx and TI.

這些是 Xilinx 和 TI。

Beyond that, we cannot say for other customers.

除此之外，我們無法評價其他客戶。

Yes, I was sort of wondering whether these 2 account for the bulk of your 90-nanometer wafer shipment?

是的，我有點想知道這兩個是否佔你們 90 奈米晶圓出貨量的大部分？

It's a significant part.

這是一個重要的部分。

And Chitung, if you could explain this perhaps very basic question.

Chitung，如果你能解釋一下這個也許非常基本的問題。

It seems from what I could understand, UMCI operation comes under your non-operating, and you showed certain losses.

據我了解，UMCI的經營屬於你的非經營性質，而且你也出現了一定的損失。

But at the same time, your gross margin, one of the reasons for gross margin decline is sourcing (indiscernible) from UMCI.

但同時，你的毛利率，毛利率下降的原因之一是從 UMCI 採購（音訊不清晰）。

So, the question is how do you account for UMCI financial performance in your quarterly update.

因此，問題是如何在季度更新中說明 UMCI 的財務表現。

It's an outsourcing basis to UMCI.

它是 UMCI 的外包基礎。

We only charge a very small minimum premium on the commission.

我們只收取非常少的最低佣金費用。

So, that's why about 5 percent of our quarterly revenue is actually coming from outsourcing to UMCI.

因此，這就是為什麼我們大約 5% 的季度收入實際上來自外包給 UMCI。

It's extremely low margin.

這是非常低的利潤。

So, that dilute our overall profit margin.

因此，這稀釋了我們的整體利潤率。

Okay.

好的。

And you know, UMCI clearly, the expanded capacity in the previous quarter, and I think -- I was a bit surprised that should say that net operating -- net loss at UMCI is really low.

你知道，UMCI 顯然在上一季擴大了產能，而且我認為——我有點驚訝，應該說 UMCI 的淨營運——淨虧損確實很低。

It is a huge -- I was wondering if you could give us some sense for either because of the depreciation or the operating margin.

這是一個巨大的數字——我想知道您能否給我們一些關於折舊或營業利潤率的資訊。

For a fab of that size with such little no net income or net loss.

對於這樣規模的晶圓廠來說，沒有淨收入或淨虧損。

Can you throw some light on the performance of UMCI.

您能否介紹一下 UMCI 的效能？

It's highly sensitive to the capacity.

它對容量非常敏感。

In the third quarter, it was almost 100 percent utilized, so the performance was better then with the smaller loss.

第三季的利用率幾乎是100%，所以效能更好，損失也更小。

But Q4 was the overall UMC capacity utilization rate to come down which includes UMCI as well.

但第四季聯電整體產能利用率下降，其中包括聯電。

The performance actually is going to be poor for UMCI in the fourth quarter, and now we're looking for something around 1 billion investment loss from UMCI in the fourth quarter.

UMCI 第四季的業績實際上會很差，現在我們預計 UMCI 第四季的投資損失約為 10 億美元。

1 billion in fourth quarter, you say.

你說第四季10億。

Yes, $1 billion NT in the fourth quarter from investment loss on UMCI.

是的，第四季 UMCI 的投資損失為新台幣 10 億美元。

And earlier, my understanding was that (indiscernible) fabs run by UMC, the break even is about 10,000 wafers per month.

早些時候，我的理解是，聯電運營的（難以辨認的）晶圓廠，盈虧平衡點約為每月 10,000 片晶圓。

Is that still valid?

這仍然有效嗎？

Actually, we disclosed earlier today that it can become break even around the 7,000 wafers.

事實上，我們今天稍早透露，大約 7,000 片晶圓可以實現損益平衡。

Now we'll move to Pranab Sarmah with Daiwa Securities.

現在我們將與大和證券一起搬到 Pranab Sarmah。

I'd like to clarify one of your guidance.

我想澄清您的一項指導。

You say that seasonal strength in PC segment on fourth quarter.

你說第四季度個人電腦市場的季節性強勁。

Does it mean like you see sequential revenue growth from the PC segment in fourth quarter?

這是否意味著您看到第四季度個人電腦領域的收入連續成長？

That is relatively speaking, in the fourth quarter PC sector appeared to be stronger than communication, than consumer.

相對而言，第四季PC板塊表現強於通訊、強於消費。

But overall, you still see probably the decline from the PC revenue on sequential basis, right?

但總體而言，您仍然可能看到 PC 收入環比下降，對吧？

Overall, yes.

總的來說，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Then, if I go to your -- this guidance like your operating margin guidance and probably the net investment loss coming out at 2.5 billion from UMCI, it looks like probably you're just going to break even on the fourth quarter '04.

然後，如果我看一下你們的——這個指導，例如你們的營業利潤率指導，以及可能來自 UMCI 的 25 億美元的淨投資損失，看起來你們可能會在 04 年第四季實現收支平衡。

Am I right in my calculations or am I missing out something out there?

我的計算是正確的還是我遺漏了一些東西？

We're not allowed to comment on the net income level, and we're trying every possible way to give you detailed guidance.

我們不允許對淨收入水平發表評論，我們正在嘗試一切可能的方式為您提供詳細的指導。

So, the margin, we actually -- is almost giving you -- is that number already.

所以，我們其實幾乎給你的利潤已經是這個數字了。

And guidance on the net number of operating loss.

並指導淨經營虧損數。

This quarter including the one-time charge of 3.5 billion loss is going to be around a loss of $3 billion NT.

本季加上一次性費用35億元虧損，預計虧損約30億元新台幣。

Then on -- you have also said you are going to put 65-nanometer probably on first quarter '06.

然後 - 您還說過您可能會在 06 年第一季採用 65 奈米。

Could you give us some color on what are the customers involved at this point, or (indiscernible) at this point the 65-nanometer?

您能否給我們一些關於目前涉及哪些客戶的信息，或者（聽不清楚）目前 65 奈米的客戶？

And what type of technology are you going to use it, as SOI or strain silicon.

您將使用哪種類型的技術，例如 SOI 或應變矽。

Of course, we cannot share with you which customers we are working with.

當然，我們無法與您分享我們正在與哪些客戶合作。

And similar to the 90-nanometer, the applications that can embrace at 65-nanometer technology will have to have high ASP, high product margin, and large die size and high volume as well to justify.

與 90 奈米類似，能夠採用 65 奈米技術的應用必須具有高 ASP、高產品利潤、大晶片尺寸和高產量才能證明其合理性。

And to elaborate on the price increase, you made some comment like because of the competitive environment, pricing has been coming down.

為了詳細說明價格上漲，您發表了一些評論，例如由於競爭環境，價格一直在下降。

And how since the utilization rate on the industry wide is going coming down, foundry industry.

由於整個行業的利用率正在下降，鑄造行業的情況如何。

How do you see that pricing environment on the fourth quarter, on a technological basis, and going forward maybe early part of 2005.

從技術面來看，您如何看待第四季以及 2005 年初的定價環境？

In Q4, we have provided a guidance that ASP will be flat.

在第四季度，我們提供了平均售價持平的指導。

I'm talking about the pricing environment like same product.

我說的是類似產品的定價環境。

Same product.

相同的產品。

As I also mentioned earlier that in Q4, that the high end of technology, such as 13-micron and the 90-nanometer will continue to grow.

正如我之前提到的，第四季度，13微米、90奈米等高端技術將持續成長。

And I'm thinking therefore the pressure probably comes more on the -- comes from the more mature, the process technology.

因此，我認為壓力可能更多地來自於更成熟的工藝技術。

And for Q1, it is too early.

對於第一季來說，現在還為時過早。

We cannot provide any information.

我們無法提供任何資訊。

Now, We'll Take a Question From Mark Fitzgerald With Banc of America.

現在，我們將回答美國銀行馬克·菲茨杰拉德的問題。

I'm a little curious given the kind of boom-bust cycles we've gone through with inventories here in the last 4 or 5 years, why the foundry industry, UMC specifically, can't share some of the risk with some of its customers, given that you're so reliant on their forecasts for building capacity and you're taking so much of the risk at this point because of the capital intensity.

我有點好奇，考慮到過去 4 到 5 年我們經歷的庫存繁榮-蕭條週期，為什麼代工行業，特別是聯華電子，不能與它的一些製造商分擔一些風險。考慮到您非常依賴客戶對產能建設的預測，並且由於資本密集度，您此時要承擔很大的風險。

Any suggestion, ideas that you have?

您有什麼建議、想法嗎？

Well, you know, a lot of other industries use pay (inaudible) contracts and stuff.

嗯，你知道，許多其他行業都使用付費（聽不清楚）合約之類的東西。

It just seems a little bizarre how high the capital intensity of the business is and how these customers can come in and out of the marketplace so quickly, and leave you guys holding so much excess capacity.

企業的資本密集度有多高，這些客戶如何如此快速地進出市場，並讓你們擁有如此多的過剩產能，這似乎有點奇怪。

Yeah, as a matter of fact, we do have business agreements with some large customers.

是的，事實上，我們確實與一些大客戶有業務協議。

However, when the market has major adjustment, no one can have control of the situation.

然而，當市場出現重大調整時，任何人都無法控制局面。

That maybe the best way of describing the situation that we are in now, and also where the difficulty comes in for sharing those risks with customers.

這也許是描述我們現在所處情況的最好方式，也是描述與客戶分擔這些風險的困難所在的最佳方式。

And just another detailed question here.

這裡還有另一個詳細問題。

On the flat CapEx that you're holding, the CapEx actually, this budget year for 2004, is it going to change.

在你持有的固定資本支出上，實際上，2004 年這個預算年度的資本支出會改變嗎？

How can we correlate that with data points we're getting from capital equipment companies.

我們如何將其與從資本設備公司獲得的數據點關聯起來。

Foundry companies, including UMC are pushing out deliveries first that were scheduled for this year.

包括聯華電子在內的代工公司將首先推遲原定於今年的交付。

What we can provide is the order -- some of the order information that we already placed.

我們可以提供的是訂單——我們已經下的一些訂單資訊。

And so those portions you can probably correlate as the equipment to vendor side.

因此，您可以將這些部分作為設備與供應商相關聯。

Regarding the full [inaudible] provide equipment vendors with a certain forecast, but that's not the actual order.

關於完整的[聽不清楚]，設備供應商提供了一定的預測，但這不是實際的訂單。

The actual order, the new orders will be issued depending on the demand of situation.

實際訂單情況，新訂單將根據情況需求發出。

Right.

正確的。

But what we're hearing from the equipment industry is stuff that was scheduled to ship in the third quarter, got pushed out several quarters.

但我們從設備產業了解到的是，原定於第三季出貨的產品被推遲了幾個季度。

So, that would seem to suggest to me that your CapEx budget for this year would change.

因此，在我看來，這似乎表明您今年的資本支出預算將會改變。

You actually can see the actual following amount we have spent year-to-date for the first 3 quarters.

您實際上可以看到我們今年迄今前三個季度的實際支出金額。

And you will find it is actually tracking to our budget very well.

您會發現它實際上很好地跟踪了我們的預算。

Almost by 85 to 90 percent already.

幾乎已經提高了 85% 到 90%。

So, in fact, we may even spend a little bit more than this $2.15 billion US we have budgeted so far.

因此，事實上，我們的支出甚至可能比迄今為止的 21.5 億美元預算還要多一點。

So, I'm not sure if that has to do with UMC.

所以，我不確定這是否與聯華電子有關。

We going to achieve the 20K and 10K for 12A and UMCI, respectively, for sure by the end of this year.

到今年年底，我們肯定會分別實現 12A 和 UMCI 的 20K 和 10K。

Is there any shift in the emphasis from equipment to facilities at this point?

此時重點是否從設備轉向設施？

No.

不。

Nothing has changed in terms of your plans, huh?

你的計劃沒有改變吧？

No.

不。

For your information, actually for the first 3 quarters, right, we have spent 17.95 billion -- 1.8 -- $1.795 billion US, which accounted for 83 percent of our total CapEx budget this year.

供您參考，實際上前三個季度，我們花費了 179.5 億美元（1.8 美元），即 17.95 億美元，占我們今年資本支出預算總額的 83%。

And the rest will happen in Q4.

其餘的將在第四季發生。

Now we'll take a question from Nicola -- I do apologize about the pronunciation, Pashnishra from Credit Suisse First Boston.

現在我們將回答 Nicola 的問題——我對發音表示歉意，來自瑞士信貸第一波士頓的 Pashnishra。

Following on from the previous question, how much time does it take from CapEx to (indiscernible) turning into capacity.

繼上一個問題之後，從資本支出到（難以辨別）轉變為產能需要多長時間。

For example, the 4Q CapEx will it result in capacitization in 1Q or will it result in capacitization in 4Q itself?

例如，第 4 季的資本支出會導致第 1 季的產能增加還是會導致第 4 季本身的產能增加？

It depends on which type of equipment.

這取決於哪種類型的設備。

For the longer lead time equipment, such as the scanner, they are talking about 9 months of lead time.

對於交貨時間較長的設備，例如掃描儀，他們談論的交貨時間約為 9 個月。

Sorry, sorry.

實在抱歉。

My question was, after you buy the equipment, like you pay for the equipment, does it immediately show up in your capacity figures, or does it take 3 or 4 months of qualification before it can be added at capacity?

我的問題是，你購買設備後，就像你支付設備費用一樣，它是立即顯示在你的產能數據中，還是需要3或4個月的資格認證才能按產能添加？

Well, it varies according to different type of equipment.

嗯，根據不同類型的設備而有所不同。

Some equipment has bigger portion of down payment in cash.

有些設備的首付比例較大，以現金支付。

Such as the (indiscernible) equipment.

例如（音訊不清晰的）設備。

The others we actually can cut their lead time short -- to as short as 2,3 months.

對於其他產品，我們實際上可以縮短他們的交貨時間，縮短至 2.3 個月。

Once we assess that, certify that , available for production, it will come to capacity.

一旦我們評估並證明可用於生產，它將達到產能。

Ok.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

One basic question.

一個基本問題。

The wafer shipment guidance you've given, is that for UMC and UMCI combined, or is it only UMC?

您給出的晶圓出貨量指引是針對聯電和UMCI 的綜合，還是僅針對聯電？

It is combined.

它是結合起來的。

Combined.

合併。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Now, we'll move to Amit Shamar with Deutsche Banc.

現在，我們將轉向德意志銀行的 Amit Shamar。

One quick question was regarding your numbers you provided.

一個簡單的問題是關於您提供的號碼。

You said 3 to 3.6 billion for CapEx is needed for how much of capacity?

您說多少產能需要 3 至 36 億的資本支出？

40,000 wafers.

40,000 片晶圓。

40,000 wafers.

40,000 片晶圓。

Okay.

好的。

And a follow-up is, could you give us a split of the CapEx in terms of how much will it be capacity, maintenance, (indiscernible) and R&D?

後續問題是，您能否告訴我們資本支出的分配情況，即容量、維護、（音訊不清晰）和研發的金額？

This is a range for '05.

這是 05 年的範圍。

We're trying our best to provide a range here.

我們正在盡力在這裡提供一個範圍。

So that's why it's 1 billion to 2 billion.

所以這就是為什麼是10億到20億。

We really have a lot of uncertainties in planning our capacity for '05.

我們在規劃 05 年的產能時確實存在著許多不確定性。

So, up until now, we cannot provide our detailed breakdown.

因此，到目前為止，我們還無法提供詳細的細分。

Next spendings call, we'll be able to provide more narrow range figures with more details.

下次支出電話會議時，我們將能夠提供更窄範圍的數字和更多細節。

Okay.

好的。

If I can ask another question.

如果我可以再問一個問題的話。

It was about your 65-nanometer plans.

這是關於你們的 65 奈米計劃。

When do you think the pilot starts?

您認為試辦什麼時候開始？

We mentioned that we will have a production in Q1, 2006.

我們提到我們將在 2006 年第一季投入生產。

And with DRKW, Ivan Goe.

還有 Ivan Goe 和 DRKW。

Couple of questions on the kpax (ph).

關於 kpax (ph) 的幾個問題。

Other than 1 billion baseline that you have , the minimum you have set, what percentage of that is actually going into maintenance, and what percentage of that is going into the additional 7,000 12-inch capacity that you have already placed orders for?

除了您擁有的 10 億個基準之外，您設定的最小值之外，其中實際用於維護的百分比是多少，以及您已下訂單的額外 7,000 個 12 英寸產能的百分比是多少？

Those are for the equipment.

這些是給裝備用的。

For purchasing the new equipment.

用於購買新設備。

Yes.

是的。

But all that 1 billion is going into the 7,000, 12 inch --

但這 10 億美元全部投入 7,000 塊 12 吋——

No.

不。

As I mentioned earlier, if you wanted to estimate, you can use 3.3 billion to 3.6 billion as the investment for 12-inch fab, which offers 40,000 wafers per month capacity.

正如我前面提到的，如果你要估算的話，你可以用33億到36億作為12吋晶圓廠的投資，每月提供4萬片晶圓的產能。

You can calculate that way.

你可以這樣算。

Let me put the question another way.

讓我換個方式來提出這個問題。

What percentage of your (indiscernible) in that 1 to 2 billion next year is for 12-inch and what percent of that is for 8-inch.

明年的 1 到 20 億美元中，12 英吋的比例是多少（聽不清楚），8 英吋的比例是多少。

It will all be for 12-inch.

全部都是12吋的。

All be for 12-inch.

全部都是12吋的。

Okay.

好的。

One clarification question.

一個澄清問題。

Earlier, I think you mentioned that total net non-operating number for the fourth quarter is 3 billion.

早些時候，我想你提到第四季的淨非營業額總額是30億。

And that includes the 3.5 billion for the liquidation of UMCI.

其中包括用於清算 UMCI 的 35 億美元。

Does it also include the 1 billion investment loss at UMCI for the fourth quarter?

是否還包括UMCI第四季10億的投資損失？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

And back to the CapEx number, is that 1 to 2 billion includes UMCJ as well?

回到資本支出數字，1 到 20 億是否也包含 UMCJ？

Yeah.

是的。

But we don't expect as much in the UMCJ.

但我們對 UMCJ 的期望並不高。

UMCJ has all 18 [inaudible] equipment.

UMCJ 擁有全部 18 台 [聽不清楚] 設備。

One question regarding the -- the utilization.

一個關於利用率的問題。

In the third quarter obviously, you had to consolidate fab 8 X, and I understand that that fab was running at perhaps, below optimal utilization.

顯然，在第三季度，您必須整合 8 個晶圓廠，據我所知，該晶圓廠的運行速度可能低於最佳利用率。

If you were to take fab 8 X out of the picture for the third quarter, how would your utilization look?

如果您將 fab 8 X 從第三季的方案中剔除，您的使用率會如何？

For the third quarter?

第三季？

Yes, for the third quarter.

是的，第三季。

Could be between 97 to 98 percent.

可能在 97% 到 98% 之間。

Okay.

好的。

My last question, if you look at the number that you have for CapEx, it is a very wide range.

我的最後一個問題是，如果你看看資本支出的數字，你會發現它的範圍非常廣泛。

Baseline is at 1 billion.

基線為 10 億。

At what point in 2005 -- at what point in 2005 can we expect some clarity as to whether your number is going to -- your eventual number would be closer to 1 billion or it would be closer to 2 billion, or at what point will we have some visibility on your CapEx?

在 2005 年的什麼時候——在 2005 年的什麼時候我們可以預期你的數字是否會變得清晰——你的最終數字會接近 10 億，或者會接近 20 億，或者什麼時候會我們對你的資本支出有一定的了解嗎？

We evaluate the situation on a monthly basis.

我們每月評估情況。

But would that not be restricted by some lead time on equipment?

但這不會受到設備交貨時間的限制嗎？

Yeah, well, for longer lead time items, as I said, we have to factor in the lead time.

是的，對於交貨時間較長的物品，正如我所說，我們必須考慮交貨時間。

Do what we think is the best.

做我們認為最好的事。

Now, moving on to Kevin Vassily with Susquehanna Financial Group.

現在，我們來談談薩斯奎哈納金融集團 (Susquehanna Financial Group) 的凱文‧瓦西里 (Kevin Vassily)。

Wondering if you could comment on manufacturing cycle times.

想知道您是否可以對製造週期時間發表評論。

As you entered this December quarter, where were average cycle times and how different are they now than they were as you entered the third quarter?

當您進入這個 12 月季度時，平均週期時間在哪裡？現在與您進入第三季度時相比有何不同？

Thanks.

謝謝。

And usually when the fab loading is reducing, it improves the cycle time.

通常，當晶圓廠負荷減少時，週期時間就會縮短。

And currently on the average, we have around 1.4 days per layer cycle time.

目前，平均每層週期時間約為 1.4 天。

It's an overall average.

這是總體平均。

Ok.

好的。

Is that much different now than it was in the beginning of Q3?

現在與第三季初相比有很大不同嗎？

When it was busier, the number was around 1.6.

比較忙的時候，這個數字在1.6左右。

Now we'll take a question from Ben Lynch with Deutsche Banc.

現在我們將回答德意志銀行本林奇的問題。

Question is a bit related to the last one.

問題與最後一個有點相關。

I was just coming at it another way.

我只是用另一種方​​式來解決這個問題。

Lead times, you know, currently what you're quoting today to customers versus what you were quoting 3 and 6 months ago respectively.

您知道，目前您今天向客戶報價的交貨時間與您分別在 3 個月和 6 個月前報價的交貨時間。

And also what did it trough at in the last downturn?

上次經濟低迷時期它又遭遇了什麼低谷？

Again, earlier, we said that the -- several times in Q4 will be actually improving, due to the loading effect.

早些時候，我們再次說過，由於負載效應，第四季度的情況實際上會有所改善。

Another thing we're proud to point out is that is our 12-inch fab in Tainan continuously improving its overall efficiency, and therefore, the lead time, even for advanced process technology, is looking very good.

我們自豪地指出的另一件事是，我們台南的 12 吋晶圓廠不斷提高其整體效率，因此，即使對於先進的製程技術，交貨時間看起來也非常好。

It's around like 1.58.

大約是1.58。

If I were thinking on it, you know, let's take a blended device and accounting for the average number of layers, et cetera.

如果我正在考慮這個問題，你知道，讓我們採用混合設備並考慮平均層數等等。

Customer comes to you and says hey, I want parts.

客戶來找你說嘿，我想要零件。

What's the latest I need to order them to get them.

我需要命令他們獲取最新的資訊。

Usually, we ask them what technology that you're going to use and how many layers of [inaudible] that they have.

通常，我們會詢問他們您將使用什麼技術以及他們擁有多少層[聽不清楚]。

We can figure that out very quickly.

我們可以很快弄清楚這一點。

Okay.

好的。

So, you haven't done that math already?

那麼，你還沒有做過數學計算嗎？

Taking into account average mass counts?

考慮平均質量數？

Definitely we've done the math.

我們肯定已經做過數學計算。

That's a very important part of our business.

這是我們業務的一個非常重要的部分。

Exactly.

確切地。

That's what I was trying to understand what you're quoting people today.

這就是我試圖理解你今天引用人們的話的原因。

Yes, so, you know, that's just to give an example.

是的，所以，你知道，這只是舉個例子。

If you use 1.4 days per layer and you have 20 [inaudible] so, you multiply that to 28 day.

如果每層使用 1.4 天，並且有 20 天[聽不清楚]，那麼您可以將其乘以 28 天。

And just the last part of that question just to wrap up.

這個問題的最後一部分只是為了結束。

So, let's assume -- I don't know if you are telling me indirectly that the average lead time is 28 days.

那麼，讓我們假設 - 我不知道您是否間接告訴我平均交貨時間是 28 天。

I'm going to assume you are.

我假設你是。

How low did it go in the last downturn?

上次經濟低迷時期的跌幅有多低？

For your information, the number of [inaudible] ranges from -- can be from 20 layers to 50 layers, depending on technology notes.

供您參考，[聽不清楚] 的數量範圍為 20 層到 50 層，視技術說明而定。

I was simply giving you an example.

我只是給你舉個例子。

Okay.

好的。

So, we're not going to compare it at all, to the last downturn basically.

因此，我們根本不會將其與上次經濟低迷時期進行比較。

Mix of revenue is very different.

收入的組合有很大不同。

We're having more than 20 percent of revenue for .13-micron and below.

我們超過 20% 的收入來自 0.13 微米及以下。

It wasn't there during the last [inaudible].

上次[聽不清楚]它不在那裡。

And now a question from Dan Heyler with Merrill Lynch.

現在丹·海勒 (Dan Heyler) 與美林證券 (Merrill Lynch) 提出了一個問題。

Thanks, I have a follow-up on 90-nanometer.

謝謝，我有90奈米的後續。

It sounds like momentum is clearly strong there.

聽起來那裡的勢頭顯然很強勁。

What kind of competition are you seeing there, as you look at 90-nanometers, say relative to 130-nanometer, including not only other foundries, but IDMs.

當你觀察 90 奈米（例如相對於 130 奈米）時，你會看到什麼樣的競爭，不僅包括其他代工廠，還包括 IDM。

Do you think the field looks roughly about the same or is there less competition?

您認為這個領域看起來大致相同還是競爭較少？

Dan, you are an analyst.

丹，你是一名分析師。

You probably have more information.

您可能有更多資訊。

I want to know your view.

我想知道你的看法。

What I can say is that if everyone knew for .13-micron technology, we were behind in the competition for more than a year.

我能說的是，如果每個人都知道0.13微米技術，我們在競爭中落後了一年多。

And this time for 90- nanometer, we felt that we are neck to neck with the industry leaders.

這次對於 90 奈米，我們感覺我們已經與行業領導者並駕齊驅了。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then clearly, you're moving to 130-nanometer opens you up to new opportunities to take share from IBM and others, especially in the wireless handset area.

顯然，轉向 130 奈米將為您提供從 IBM 和其他公司奪取份額的新機會，特別是在無線手機領域。

Is there an area that you think 90-nanometer opens you up to say new available markets?

您認為 90 奈米是否有一個領域可以為您打開新的可用市場？

You mean new applications?

你是說新的應用程式嗎？

Yeah, new applications.

是的，新的應用程式。

You've covered most of the big, major end markets already with the 130-nanometer now.

現在，您已經使用 130 奈米技術覆蓋了大部分大型主要終端市場。

Is there anything out there that you know, that we haven't seen yet that could provide you new growth opportunities?

有沒有您知道但我們尚未看到的東西可以為您提供新的成長機會？

Yeah, one thing I am glad to see is that some high-end consumer product start to embrace 90-nanometer.

是的，我很高興看到的一件事是一些高端消費產品開始採用 90 奈米。

That actually is sooner than what I expected, because usually consumer product can be 1 or 2 generations behind than the leading applications in embracing the state-of-the-art.

這實際上比我預期的要早，因為通常消費產品在採用最先進技術方面可能比領先應用落後一兩代。

But due to the complexity of those consumer applications, they are -- they start to use it.

但由於這些消費者應用程式的複雜性，他們開始使用它。

That's as much as I can say.

我能說的就這麼多了。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then looking at -- in terms of operating margin question, around the fourth quarter of '02 and first quarter of '03, you came pretty close, you were about 65 to 70 percent utilization of margins roughly about the same as where you're guiding for the fourth quarter, around 15.

然後看看- 就營業利潤率問題而言，大約在02 年第四季度和03 年第一季度，您已經非常接近了，您的利潤率利用率約為65% 至70%，與您的情況大致相同。重新指導第四季度，15 左右。

But as you said, you're ramping a big 300-millimeter fab and you have a short-term correction.

但正如您所說，您正在擴建一座大型 300 毫米晶圓廠，並且會進行短期調整。

When you get through the correction, let's say you get back to where you were in the third quarter at UMCI, where do you think your normalized utilization -- I should say normalized margins would be say at 75 percent utilization.

當你完成修正後，假設你回到了 UMCI 第三季度的水平，你認為你的標準化利用率是多少——我應該說標準化利潤率為 75%。

Assuming that UMCI gets back to normal level.

假設 UMCI 恢復到正常水準。

Obviously that's offsetting your margins a little bit to the downside.

顯然，這稍微抵消了你的利潤率的下降。

So, I'm trying to get a light for light comparison at say 75 percent utilization, where would you expect your operating margins to average?

因此，我試圖以 75% 的利用率進行光比較，您預計您的平均營業利潤率是多少？

This also seem revenue to UMCI accounts for roughly 5 percent of our total revenue in the third and fourth quarter.

這也顯示 UMCI 的收入約占我們第三和第四季總收入的 5%。

And that has a negative impact on our gross margin by about 1 to 2 percentage points.

這對我們的毛利率產生了大約 1 到 2 個百分點的負面影響。

Okay.

好的。

Revenue take down 1 to 2 percent points.

收入下降 1 至 2 個百分點。

Okay.

好的。

So, it sounds like your operating margin then levels are not significantly better yet relative to say pre 300-millimeter.

因此，聽起來您的營運利潤率相對於 300 毫米之前的水平並沒有明顯提高。

It sounds like you're at 70, 75 percent utilization.

聽起來您的利用率是 70%、75%。

(inaudible) is about 15 to 20 percent of total revenue.

（聽不清楚）約佔總收入的 15% 至 20%。

We're still looking for 3 to 5 percent points better than the last cycle.

我們仍然希望比上一個週期好 3 到 5 個百分點。

So, with 15 percent, 20 percent,12-inch capacity, I would say that's quite a good improvement.

因此，對於 15%、20% 的 12 英寸容量，我認為這是一個相當不錯的改進。

Okay.

好的。

I see.

我懂了。

So then as you get to say, half of your installed base, 300-millimeter, let's say 40 percent, you would expect that to be -- continue to be a linear relationship?

那麼當你說，你的安裝基數的一半，300 毫米，比方說 40%，你會期望它繼續是線性關係嗎？

Did you continue to see that ratio say go up by 3 to 5 percentage points as you add utilization up?

隨著利用率的提高，您是否繼續看到該比率上升 3 到 5 個百分點？

There are too many variables including ASPs and the percentage of 12-inch as a total capacity.

ASP、12吋佔總產能的比例等變數太多。

So, I guess we probably will read your reports to find out.

所以，我想我們可能會閱讀您的報告來找出答案。

Okay.

好的。

And then with regard to the China outlook, clearly, there is -- there are opportunities in China to be had in the foundry business, either defensive ones against competition there, and you've got now TSMC setting up shop there.

然後就中國前景而言，顯然，中國的代工業務存在機會，要么是針對那裡的競爭的防禦性機會，要么是台積電在那裡設立了工廠。

Do you need to do anything more than you're currently doing to develop for the long term in accessing the China long-term growth?

為了實現中國的長期成長，您是否需要做比目前更多的事情來實現長期發展？

I think I have stated this multiple times in the quarterly meeting and also in the investment banker meeting or technology conferences.

我想我已經在季度會議以及投資銀行家會議或技術會議上多次說過這一點。

That 90 percent or more of the order received by the China fabs were actually from outside China.

中國晶圓廠收到的訂單中 90% 或以上實際上來自中國境外。

The immense -- the demand is still very low.

巨大——需求仍然很低。

All of the production, all of the products made, actually shipped abroad.

所有的生產、所有的產品其實都運往國外。

So, potentially in China, sometimes we feel it is exaggerated.

所以，在中國，有時我們覺得它被誇大了。

There is no magic in foundry business.

鑄造業並沒有什麼神奇之處。

It will take time to develop the capabilities in that area.

發展該領域的能力需要時間。

And so far, there is still a big gap in capabilities.

而且到目前為止，能力上還存在著很大差距。

In terms of technology, IP, and services.

在科技、IP、服務方面。

So, we'll continue to watch that area and see what we need to do.

因此，我們將繼續關注該領域，看看我們需要做什麼。

Okay.

好的。

That's fine.

沒關係。

My question was different.

我的問題有所不同。

I'm relating to opportunities within China -- there are some potential long-term opportunities, not necessarily to compete globally, but just to access long-term growth.

我談到的是中國國內的機會──有一些潛在的長期機會，不一定是為了參與全球競爭，而只是為了獲得長期成長。

Yeah.

是的。

I think you used keyword, is potential long-term opportunities.

我認為你所使用的關鍵字，是潛在的長期機會。

Yeah.

是的。

Near term is still limited.

短期來看仍有限。

Now, moving on to Darrel Lu, Goldman Sachs.

現在，我們來談談高盛的 Darrel Lu。

Just have a question.

只是有一個問題。

Trying to figure out the inventory correction impact.

試著找出庫存修正的影響。

Can you comment on like what percentage of customers have a cut wafer orders in the fourth quarter, especially if you can comment on back in different end market like a PC, communications versus consumer?

您能否評論一下第四季度有多少比例的客戶有切割晶圓訂單，特別是如果您可以評論一下不同的終端市場（例如個人電腦、通訊市場與消費者市場）？

Yeah, we stated earlier that the inventory correction was pretty much across the board.

是的，我們之前說過，庫存調整幾乎是全面的。

And across -- that means geographic area as well as applications.

跨越——這意味著地理區域和應用程式。

And of course, there are certain sectors better than others.

當然，有些行業比其他行業更好。

Again, as we indicated, the PC sector seems to be stronger than communication.

正如我們所指出的，個人電腦產業似乎比通訊產業更強大。

And then consumer.

然後是消費者。

Yeah, I think it is hard to provide -- quantify the number percentage-wise.

是的，我認為很難提供——按百分比量化數字。

I think that we probably have time for one final question.

我想我們可能還有時間回答最後一個問題。

We'll take our final question from Gavin Duffy with A.G. Edwards.

我們將回答 Gavin Duffy 和 A.G. Edwards 提出的最後一個問題。

I was just kind of wondering where we are on the 90-nanometer yield curve, and how long you think it will take to get similar yields at .13 and .18, for 90-nanometers to get to that level.

我只是想知道我們在 90 奈米良率曲線上處於什麼位置，以及您認為需要多長時間才能在 0.13 和 0.18 處獲得類似的良率，90 奈米才能達到該水準。

I think this time we have been very encouraged by the continuous breakthrough in yield intensement, and I think we're very close to passing the knee of the curve.

我認為這次我們對殖利率強度的持續突破感到非常鼓舞，而且我認為我們非常接近通過曲線的轉折點。

I'm referring to the learning curve.

我指的是學習曲線。

And so for probably in 1 year, we'll have very efficient manufacturing yields.

因此，可能在一年內，我們將擁有非常高效的製造產量。

And now at this time, I will turn the call back over to Mr. Liu for closing remarks.

現在這個時候，我將把電話轉回給劉先生做總結發言。

Thank you again, for your interest in UMC.

再次感謝您對聯華電子的關注。

Please feel free to contact us directly if you have additional questions.

如果您還有其他問題，請隨時直接與我們聯絡。

Good day, everyone.

今天是個好日子。

Thanks to everyone.

謝謝大家。

See you next quarter.

下季見。

That will conclude today's program.

今天的節目到此結束。

We do thank you for your participation.

我們非常感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連線。