德州儀器 (TXN) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Texas Instruments' Q1 2019 Earnings Release Call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到德州儀器 2019 年第一季度收益發布電話會議。

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Dave Pahl.

此時，我想將會議轉交給 Dave Pahl。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2019 earnings conference call.

下午好，感謝您參加我們 2019 年第一季度的收益電話會議。

Rafael Lizardi, TI's chief financial officer, is with me today.

TI 的首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 今天和我在一起。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

對於錯過該版本的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

此電話正在網絡上直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。

A replay will be available through the web as well.

重播也將通過網絡提供。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

此電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

We encourage you to review the "Notice regarding forward-looking statements" contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益發布中包含的“關於前瞻性陳述的通知”，以及 TI 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

For today's call, let me start by summarizing what Rafael and I will be reviewing.

對於今天的電話會議，讓我首先總結一下 Rafael 和我將要審查的內容。

I'll be covering the following topics: first, a high-level summary of the financial results for the first quarter; second, I'll provide some details of the first quarter by segment and end market; and third, I'll include some additional color in light of the market weakness we're currently experiencing.

我將涵蓋以下主題：首先，對第一季度財務業績進行高度總結；其次，我將按細分市場和終端市場提供第一季度的一些細節；第三，鑑於我們目前正在經歷的市場疲軟，我將添加一些額外的顏色。

Rafael will then review profitability, capital management results, a brief comment on the status of our next 300-millimeter fab, and then the outlook.

然後，Rafael 將回顧盈利能力、資本管理結果、對我們下一個 300 毫米晶圓廠的狀態的簡短評論，然後是展望。

Then we'll open the call for Q&A.

然後我們將打開問答電話。

Now, starting with the high-level summary of our first quarter financial results: The weakness in demand that began in the second half of 2018 continued into the first quarter.

現在，從我們第一季度財務業績的高級摘要開始：從 2018 年下半年開始的需求疲軟一直持續到第一季度。

The weakness was across all markets, with the exception of communications equipment.

除通信設備外，所有市場均表現疲軟。

In our core businesses, Analog revenue declined 2% and Embedded Processing revenue declined 14% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

在我們的核心業務中，與去年同期相比，模擬收入下降了 2%，嵌入式處理收入下降了 14%。

Both businesses' year-on-year growth decelerated as we expected at this point in the cycle.

正如我們在周期的這一點所預期的那樣，這兩項業務的同比增長均有所放緩。

Similar to the fourth quarter, Embedded remained weaker than Analog, primarily because it didn't benefit from increasing content in 5G.

與第四季度類似，嵌入式仍然弱於模擬，主要是因為它沒有受益於 5G 內容的增加。

Operating margins decreased in both businesses.

兩項業務的營業利潤率均有所下降。

Reduced factory loadings affected both businesses, but the impact was greater in Analog since more of its supply comes from internal manufacturing.

工廠負荷減少對這兩家公司都有影響，但 Analog 的影響更大，因為其更多供應來自內部製造。

Overall, revenue in the first quarter decreased 5% from a year ago and earnings per share were $1.26, including a $0.04 discrete tax benefit not in our original guidance.

總體而言，第一季度的收入比一年前下降了 5%，每股收益為 1.26 美元，其中包括我們最初指導中沒有的 0.04 美元的離散稅收優惠。

With that backdrop, I'll now provide details on our performance, which we believe continues to be representative of the ongoing strength of our business model.

在此背景下，我現在將提供有關我們業績的詳細信息，我們認為這將繼續代表我們業務模式的持續優勢。

In the first quarter, our cash flow from operations was $1.1 billion.

第一季度，我們的運營現金流為 11 億美元。

As we note each quarter, we believe that free cash flow growth, especially on a per share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term.

正如我們每個季度所指出的那樣，我們認為自由現金流的增長，尤其是每股增長，對於實現股東價值的長期最大化最為重要。

We remain committed to returning all of our free cash flow to owners.

我們仍然致力於將我們所有的自由現金流返還給所有者。

Free cash flow for the trailing 12-month period was $6 billion, up 22% from a year ago.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 60 億美元，比一年前增長 22%。

Free cash flow margin for the same period was 38.4% of revenue, up from 32.1% a year ago.

同期自由現金流利潤率為收入的 38.4%，高於一年前的 32.1%。

We continue to benefit from the quality of our product portfolio that's long-lived and diverse, and the efficiency of our manufacturing strategy, the latter of which includes our growing 300-millimeter Analog output.

我們繼續受益於我們經久耐用且多樣化的產品組合的質量，以及我們製造戰略的效率，後者包括我們不斷增長的 300 毫米模擬輸出。

We believe that free cash flow will be valued only if it's productively invested in the business or returned to owners.

我們認為，只有將自由現金流有效地投資於企業或返還給所有者，它才會受到重視。

For the trailing 12-month period, we returned $8 billion of cash to owners through a combination of dividends and stock repurchases, demonstrating our confidence in our business model and our commitment to return all of our free cash flow to owners.

在過去的 12 個月期間，我們通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式向所有者返還了 80 億美元現金，表明我們對我們的商業模式充滿信心，並承諾將我們所有的自由現金流返還給所有者。

Moving on, I'll now provide some details of the first quarter by segment and end market, and then offer some additional color on the market.

繼續，我現在將按細分市場和終端市場提供第一季度的一些細節，然後提供市場上的一些額外顏色。

From a year-ago quarter, Analog revenue declined 2% due to High Volume and Power, partially offset by growth in Signal Chain.

與去年同期相比，由於高容量和功率，模擬收入下降了 2%，部分被信號鏈的增長所抵消。

I'll note that the strength in communications equipment minimized Analog's decline.

我會注意到，通信設備的強勢最小化了 Analog 的跌幅。

Embedded Processing revenue declined by 14% from a year-ago quarter due to declines in both product lines -- Processors and Connected Microcontrollers.

由於處理器和連接微控制器這兩條產品線的下滑，嵌入式處理收入比去年同期下降了 14%。

In our Other segment, revenue declined 6% from a year ago.

在我們的其他部門，收入比一年前下降了 6%。

Now given the current weaker market environment, I wanted to provide some additional color on the quarter.

現在鑑於當前疲軟的市場環境，我想為本季度提供一些額外的色彩。

As I mentioned earlier, the weakness in demand for our products that began in the second half of 2018 continued into the first quarter.

正如我之前提到的，從 2018 年下半年開始的對我們產品的需求疲軟一直持續到第一季度。

Demand came in mostly as expected, although communications equipment was stronger-than-expected due to shipments of products that support 5G.

需求基本符合預期，但由於支持 5G 的產品出貨量，通信設備強於預期。

Next, I'll provide some insight into this quarter's performance by end market versus a year ago.

接下來，我將提供一些關於終端市場與一年前相比本季度表現的見解。

Industrial and automotive declined mid-single digits due to broad-based weakness.

由於廣泛的疲軟，工業和汽車行業下跌了中等個位數。

We continue to focus our investments across 13 sectors in industrial and 5 sectors in automotive.

我們繼續將投資重點放在工業的 13 個行業和汽車的 5 個行業。

Despite this near-term weakness, we continue to believe these investments will deliver broad-based and diverse revenue growth over the long term.

儘管存在短期疲軟，但我們仍然相信這些投資將在長期內帶來基礎廣泛和多樣化的收入增長。

Personal electronics declined low-double digits due to broad-based weakness, including mobile phones and PCs.

由於廣泛的疲軟，包括移動電話和個人電腦，個人電子產品的價格下降了兩位數。

In contrast, communications equipment grew about 30% year on year, and as we mentioned earlier, benefiting both from 5G shipments as well as an easy compare due to weakness in the year-ago period.

相比之下，通信設備同比增長約 30%，正如我們之前提到的，既受益於 5G 出貨量，也受益於去年同期的疲軟。

History would suggest that we should expect this market to be choppy in the future.

歷史表明，我們應該預料到這個市場在未來會出現波動。

And then lastly, Enterprise Systems declined.

最後，Enterprise Systems 拒絕了。

Looking at these end markets on a regional basis, generally, all the regions performed consistently, excluding the positive effects of communications equipment.

從區域角度來看這些終端市場，總體而言，所有區域表現一致，不包括通信設備的積極影響。

So in summary, we continue to focus our strategy on the industrial and automotive markets, where we've been allocating our capital and driving initiatives to strengthen our position.

因此，總而言之，我們繼續將我們的戰略重點放在工業和汽車市場上，我們一直在這些市場上配置我們的資本和推動舉措以加強我們的地位。

This is based on the belief that industrial and automotive will be the fastest growing semiconductor markets.

這是基於這樣一種信念，即工業和汽車將成為增長最快的半導體市場。

They have increasing semiconductor content and they also provide diversity and longevity.

它們的半導體含量不斷增加，並且還提供了多樣性和壽命。

All of this translates to a high terminal value of our portfolio.

所有這些都轉化為我們投資組合的高終值。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

And good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.26 billion, or 62.9% of revenue.

本季度毛利為 22.6 億美元，佔收入的 62.9%。

From a year ago, gross profit decreased due to lower revenue and reduced factory loadings.

與一年前相比，由於收入減少和工廠負荷減少，毛利有所下降。

Gross profit margin decreased 170 basis points.

毛利率下降170個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $803 million, down about 2% from a year ago and about as expected.

本季度的運營支出為 8.03 億美元，同比下降約 2%，與預期基本一致。

On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 20.7% of revenue, within our range of expectations.

在過去 12 個月的基礎上，運營費用佔收入的 20.7%，在我們的預期範圍內。

Over the last 12 months, we have invested $1.56 billion in R&D, an important element of our capital allocation.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們在研發方面投資了 15.6 億美元，這是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。

We are pleased with our disciplined process of allocating capital to R&D, which we believe will allow us to continue to grow our top line over the long-term.

我們對我們將資金分配給研發的嚴格流程感到滿意，我們相信這將使我們能夠長期繼續增長我們的收入。

Acquisition charges, a noncash expense, were $79 million.

收購費用是一項非現金支出，為 7900 萬美元。

Acquisition charges will be about $80 million per quarter through the third quarter of this year, then decline to about $50 million per quarter for 2 remaining years.

截至今年第三季度，收購費用將約為每季度 8000 萬美元，然後在剩餘的兩年內降至每季度約 5000 萬美元。

Operating profit was $1.38 billion or 38.4% of revenue.

營業利潤為 13.8 億美元，佔收入的 38.4%。

Operating profit was down 11% from the year ago quarter.

營業利潤比去年同期下降 11%。

Operating margin for Analog was 43.2%, down from 45.4% a year ago, and for Embedded Processing, was 31.3%, down from 35.4% a year ago.

模擬業務的營業利潤率為 43.2%，低於一年前的 45.4%，嵌入式處理業務的營業利潤率為 31.3%，低於一年前的 35.4%。

Our focused investments on the best sustainable growth opportunities with differentiated positions will enable both businesses to continue to contribute nicely to free cash flow growth over time.

我們專注於具有差異化定位的最佳可持續增長機會的投資將使這兩家公司能夠隨著時間的推移繼續為自由現金流增長做出良好貢獻。

Net income in the first quarter was $1.22 billion or $1.26 per share, which included a $0.04 discrete tax benefit not in our prior outlook as we have discussed.

第一季度的淨收入為 12.2 億美元或每股 1.26 美元，其中包括 0.04 美元的離散稅收優惠，正如我們所討論的那樣，這不在我們之前的展望中。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我從我們的現金生成開始評論我們的資本管理結果。

Cash flow from operations was $1.11 billion in the quarter.

本季度運營現金流為 11.1 億美元。

Capital expenditures were $251 million in the quarter.

本季度的資本支出為 2.51 億美元。

Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $5.99 billion.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 59.9 億美元。

In the first quarter, we paid $724 million in dividends and repurchased $1.15 billion of our stock for a total return to owners of $1.88 billion.

第一季度，我們支付了 7.24 億美元的股息並回購了 11.5 億美元的股票，為所有者帶來的總回報為 18.8 億美元。

In total, we have returned $8.05 billion in the past 12 months, consistent with our strategy to return all of our free cash flow.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們總共返還了 80.5 億美元，這與我們返還所有自由現金流的戰略一致。

Over the same period, our dividends represented 45% of free cash flow, underscoring their sustainability.

同期，我們的股息佔自由現金流的 45%，凸顯了它們的可持續性。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $4.09 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，第一季度末有 40.9 億美元的現金和短期投資。

Total debt is $5.8 billion with a weighted average coupon of 2.91%.

總債務為 58 億美元，加權平均息票率為 2.91%。

Inventory days were 144, up 8 days from a year ago and down 8 days sequentially.

庫存天數為144天，同比增加8天，環比減少8天。

We are pleased with the progress we have made replenishing inventory of low volume devices and implementing the next phase of our consignment programs with our distributors.

我們很高興我們在補充低容量設備的庫存以及與我們的分銷商一起實施下一階段的寄售計劃方面取得了進展。

Work in both of these areas will continue in the second quarter.

這兩個領域的工作將在第二季度繼續進行。

We believe there is strategic value in owning and controlling our inventory and we'll manage it with our long-term objectives in mind.

我們相信擁有和控制我們的庫存具有戰略價值，我們將在管理庫存時牢記我們的長期目標。

Next, as we mentioned earlier, we want to update you on our next 300-millimeter wafer fab.

接下來，正如我們之前提到的，我們想向您介紹我們下一個 300 毫米晶圓廠的最新情況。

As you may have seen, we have chosen Richardson, Texas, as the site for our next wafer fab.

您可能已經看到，我們選擇德克薩斯州的理查森作為我們下一個晶圓廠的選址。

The new building will be on our existing site in Richardson.

新大樓將建在我們在理查森的現有場地上。

We have not announced a specific construction timetable yet.

我們還沒有公佈具體的建設時間表。

But as we indicated during the February Capital Management Call, we would expect to get started in the next few years.

但正如我們在 2 月份的資本管理電話會議上指出的那樣，我們預計會在未來幾年內開始。

Turning to our outlook for the second quarter, we expect TI's revenue in the range of $3.46 billion to $3.74 billion, and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.12 to $1.32, which includes an estimated $10 million discrete tax benefit.

談到我們對第二季度的展望，我們預計 TI 的收入在 34.6 億美元至 37.4 億美元之間，每股收益在 1.12 美元至 1.32 美元之間，其中包括估計 1000 萬美元的離散稅收優惠。

We continue to expect our annual operating tax rate to be about 16% in 2019.

我們繼續預計 2019 年的年度營業稅率約為 16%。

In closing, as we said last quarter, we believe that after 10 quarters of year-on-year growth, the weakness we are seeing is primarily due to the semiconductor cycle.

最後，正如我們上個季度所說，我們認為在經歷了 10 個季度的同比增長之後，我們看到的疲軟主要是由於半導體週期。

We have just completed our second quarter of year-on-year declines for TI.

我們剛剛完成了 TI 第二季度的同比下降。

If you look at history, cycles are always different, but typically, the industry would have 4 to 5 quarters of year-on-year declines before year-on-year growth resumes.

如果你回顧歷史，週期總是不同的，但通常情況下，該行業在同比增長恢復之前會有 4 到 5 個季度的同比下降。

We are not trying to forecast the cycle, but simply offer some historical perspective.

我們並不是要預測週期，而只是提供一些歷史觀點。

Given our experience, we will stay focused on making TI stronger for the long term, while remaining diligent in the short term.

根據我們的經驗，我們將繼續專注於讓 TI 長期變得更強大，同時在短期內保持勤奮。

We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are technology and manufacturing, portfolio breadth, market reach, and diverse and long-lived products.

我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即技術和製造、產品組合廣度、市場範圍以及多樣化和長壽命的產品。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best products, Analog and Embedded Processing, and the best markets, industrial and automotive, which I believe will enable us to continue to improve and deliver free cash flow per share growth for a long time to come.

我們將通過嚴格的資本配置和專注於最好的產品、模擬和嵌入式處理以及最好的工業和汽車市場來繼續加強這些優勢，我相信這將使我們能夠繼續改善並提供每股自由現金流未來很長一段時間的增長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael.

謝謝，拉斐爾。

Operator, you can now open up the lines for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開提問線了。

(Operator Instructions) Operator?

（操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）我們將首先與美銀美林聯繫 Vivek Arya。

I'm trying to think of how to interpret your Q2 outlook.

我正在考慮如何解讀您對第二季度的展望。

One interpretation is that you're not really seeing much recovery off of Q1, right?

一種解釋是你並沒有真正看到第一季度的複蘇，對吧？

But just kind of surprising when we hear of China PMI improving and all the optimism about some signs of recovery.

但當我們聽到中國 PMI 改善以及對某些復甦跡象的樂觀情緒時，有點令人驚訝。

The other interpretation is that maybe Q1, you saw the extra benefit from comm equipment.

另一種解釋是，也許 Q1，您看到了通信設備帶來的額外好處。

So if I exclude that, then you are seeing some modest pickup going into Q2.

因此，如果我將其排除在外，那麼您會看到第二季度出現一些適度回升。

So I'm just curious, how are you thinking about your Q2 outlook versus seasonally, which is supposed to be up 7%, 8% sequentially?

所以我很好奇，你如何看待你的第二季度前景與季節性相比，應該連續增長 7%、8%？

Yes.

是的。

Vivek, I'd say, certainly, I can confirm the first part of the question, that in first quarter, we did get a benefit from comms equipment.

Vivek，我會說，當然，我可以確認問題的第一部分，即在第一季度，我們確實從通訊設備中獲益。

That's just in the numbers.

這只是數字。

I think when we look at our second quarter outlook and we put that together, again, we base that on the orders that we get from customers as well as the demand feeds that we get through our consignment programs.

我認為，當我們審視我們的第二季度展望並將其放在一起時，我們再次將其基於我們從客戶那裡獲得的訂單以及我們通過寄售計劃獲得的需求反饋。

And just as a reminder, about 2/3 of our revenue come through those consignment programs.

提醒一下，我們大約 2/3 的收入來自這些寄售計劃。

And for OEMs, we'll typically get 6 months of visibility and there's no inventory that sits in front of us in that manufacturing line.

對於原始設備製造商，我們通常會獲得 6 個月的可見性，並且在該生產線上沒有庫存擺在我們面前。

So it really is one of the best signals that we can get.

所以這確實是我們可以獲得的最佳信號之一。

And I also would caution that, that doesn't mean that, that signal can't change very quickly.

而且我還要警告說，這並不意味著該信號不能很快改變。

But -- so that's how we're basing the guidance for the second quarter and I'll leave the further interpretation to you.

但是——這就是我們如何基於第二季度的指導，我會把進一步的解釋留給你。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有跟進嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So maybe if I ask the question if a different way.

所以也許如果我以不同的方式問這個問題。

Have you seen any pickup in orders over the last few weeks, versus, let's say, the first few weeks of the year?

您是否看到過去幾週的訂單有所增加，比方說，今年的前幾週？

Well, I would say that orders behaved normally in the quarter.

好吧，我會說訂單在本季度表現正常。

And again, 2/3 of our revenue is coming through on consignment.

同樣，我們 2/3 的收入來自寄售。

So we'll get an order.

所以我們會得到一個訂單。

When that product is due to ship, that happens instantaneously.

當該產品要發貨時，這會立即發生。

So orders are probably less of the strongest signal that we'll get than versus that demand -- those demand signals that we get from orders.

因此，與需求相比，訂單可能不是我們將獲得的最強烈信號——我們從訂單中獲得的那些需求信號。

We'll go next to John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

我們將與瑞士信貸一起去約翰·皮策旁邊。

Rafael, I was wondering, can you talk a little about some of the utilization actions you are taking?

拉斐爾，我想知道，你能談談你正在採取的一些利用行動嗎？

How much of a hit were they to the calendar first quarter gross margins?

它們對日曆第一季度毛利率的影響有多大？

And I guess more importantly, I know it takes time for utilization actions to kind of go through the P&L.

而且我想更重要的是，我知道利用行動需要時間才能完成損益表。

But have utilization rates now bottomed?

但現在利用率已經觸底了嗎？

And how do you think about utilization relative to Q2 gross margins and going throughout the remainder of the year?

您如何看待與第二季度毛利率相關的利用率以及今年剩餘時間的利用率？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的問題。

Let me try to frame that for you a little bit.

讓我試著為你構想一下。

Over the last couple of quarters, we have talked about how we were going to decrease our wafer starts to adjust to the expectations of revenue.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們討論了我們將如何減少晶圓開始以適應收入預期。

While at the same time, we're going to increase the portion -- or dedicate a portion of those wafers to building our low-volume industrial consignment or industrial buffer parts and also the transition to consignment.

與此同時，我們將增加這部分——或者將這些晶圓的一部分用於構建我們的小批量工業寄售或工業緩衝部件，以及向寄售的過渡。

So we did those things.

所以我們做了那些事情。

And our operating plan did reduce and we did take a hit to gross margins in the process.

我們的運營計劃確實減少了，在此過程中我們的毛利率確實受到了打擊。

And that's what you're seeing in our P&L.

這就是您在我們的損益表中看到的。

Now what I would sort of take you back to is look at it from a free cash flow standpoint.

現在我想帶你回到從自由現金流的角度來看它。

Because ultimately, that's what matters, right?

因為最終，這才是最重要的，對吧？

What you're seeing from a utilization charges standpoint is a noncash expense.

從使用費的角度來看，您看到的是非現金支出。

At the end of the day, what we're focused on is allocating capital and allocating cash, right?

歸根結底，我們關注的是配置資本和配置現金，對吧？

So by decreasing those wafer starts, what we did was dedicating less cash to that.

因此，通過減少晶圓啟動，我們所做的就是減少投入的現金。

So in fact, leaving out more cash for the owners of the company.

所以實際上，為公司所有者留下了更多現金。

But generating enough inventory or the right amount of inventory to be prepared for the revenue that we want to meet in the future.

但是要產生足夠的庫存或適量的庫存，以便為我們將來想要實現的收入做好準備。

And also to build those buffer inventory stocks so that we're prepared for future quarters and have that, the ability to meet customer expectations and customer satisfaction, which ultimately is what we're trying to do with that inventory so that it helps us position ourselves to meet those customer demands and help with our goal of continuing to grow the top line for a long time to come.

還要建立這些緩衝庫存，以便我們為未來的季度做好準備，並擁有滿足客戶期望和客戶滿意度的能力，這最終是我們試圖對這些庫存做的事情，以便它幫助我們定位我們自己來滿足這些客戶的需求，並幫助我們實現在未來很長一段時間內繼續增加收入的目標。

Yes.

是的。

And just a number on that.

這只是一個數字。

I think if you look at our first quarter trailing 12-month free cash flows at 38.4%, that was the same that we had last quarter.

我想如果你看看我們第一季度的 12 個月自由現金流為 38.4%，這與上一季度相同。

So it didn't change much.

所以變化不大。

Do you have a follow-on, John?

你有後續嗎，約翰？

Yes, Dave.

是的，戴夫。

Just going back to the revenue guidance for the calendar second quarter.

回到日曆第二季度的收入指導。

If you look at how the business has historically performed, I think I need to go back to 2001, to see a calendar second quarter that was down sequentially.

如果您查看該業務的歷史表現，我想我需要回到 2001 年，才能看到日曆上的第二季度連續下降。

And that was sort of in the wake of the tech bubble.

那是在科技泡沫之後。

Again, I'm just trying to get a sense of what you're seeing in the bottoms-up business to potentially have a scenario when they're of down sequential revenue?

同樣，我只是想了解您在自下而上的業務中看到的情況，當他們的連續收入下降時可能會出現這種情況？

And I guess you mentioned in your prepared comments that the comms business can be lumpy historically.

我猜你在準備好的評論中提到過，從歷史上看，通信業務可能會起伏不定。

Is Embedded in the Q2 guidance still good lumpiness?

Q2 指導中的 Embedded 是否仍然很好？

Or would you expect bad lumpiness in the comms sector?

或者你會預料到通訊部門會出現嚴重的波動嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I'd say, first, if you look over, and you know this very well, John, if you look over 10, 15, 25 years of the comms equipment market, that business is lumpy.

所以我想說，首先，如果你回顧一下，你非常了解這一點，約翰，如果你回顧一下 10、15、25 年的通信設備市場，那麼這個行業是起伏不定的。

It's lumpy because of the way that operators put out tenders and then place the orders and the OEMs, our customers, have to build to those.

這是因為運營商發出招標然後下訂單的方式，而我們的客戶 OEM 必須按照這些方式建造。

So history just says that you should be mindful of that and that doesn't make it a bad business, it's just an attribute of it.

所以歷史只是說你應該注意這一點，這並不意味著它是一個糟糕的企業，它只是它的一個屬性。

And so I think in second quarter, I'd remind you that we just completed the second quarter of year-on-year declines for TI.

所以我想在第二季度，我會提醒你，我們剛剛完成了 TI 的第二季度同比下降。

It's not -- it's likely that cycles, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, can last 4 or 5 quarters.

它不是 - 正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，週期可能會持續 4 或 5 個季度。

Sometimes they can be shorter and sometimes they can be longer than that.

有時它們可以更短，有時它們可以更長。

But we're 2 quarters into that.

但我們已經進行了 2 個季度。

So -- and per our practice, if there was something significant or unusual going on in our guidance, either by end markets or a particular customer, we would make those things clear to help you understand it.

所以——根據我們的做法，如果我們的指南中有一些重要或不尋常的事情發生，無論是終端市場還是特定客戶，我們都會把這些事情說清楚，以幫助你理解它。

We'll go next to Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

接下來我們將與 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon 一起討論。

Again, I want to push on the comm point a little bit.

同樣，我想稍微強調一下通訊點。

I know Analog and Embedded have diverged, partially because of this.

我知道模擬和嵌入式已經分道揚鑣，部分原因在於此。

If it wasn't for the upside on comm and Analog though, do you think you'd be seeing similar year-over-year trends without the strength in comm?

如果不是因為通信和模擬的上行，你認為如果沒有通信的優勢，你會看到類似的同比趨勢嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Stacy, they'd be...

史黛西，他們會...

As you see in embedded?

正如您在嵌入式中看到的那樣？

Yes.

是的。

They would be much closer.

他們會更近。

I think there's still some differences.

我覺得還是有一些區別的。

But directionally, all the end markets are the same and they'd be much closer from a year-over-year decline standpoint.

但在方向上，所有終端市場都是相同的，從同比下降的角度來看，它們會更接近。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有跟進嗎？

I do.

我願意。

And I want to follow up, still, on comm.

我還想在通訊上跟進。

So we're seeing very strong ups.

所以我們看到了非常強勁的上漲。

I mean, I guess is the first part of it is, is it fair to say that -- and I think you mentioned this, that the upside versus guidance in the quarter that was all comms?

我的意思是，我想它的第一部分是，這樣說是否公平 - 我想你提到過這一點，即本季度的上行與指導是所有通信？

So the rest of business came in as expected?

所以剩下的業務如期而至？

And I guess just secondly, how concerned are you with the possibility that the current strength we're seeing in comm is not actually matched to anything?

我想其次，您對我們在通信中看到的當前強度實際上與任何事物都不匹配的可能性有多擔心？

I know people have been worried about like order pull forwards and that sort of thing from some of the larger customers?

我知道人們一直擔心訂單提前以及一些大客戶的類似事情？

Like, what are you seeing around those lines, around the sustainability of the upside that we're seeing in comm?

就像，圍繞這些線，圍繞我們在通信中看到的上行的可持續性，你看到了什麼？

I guess, I'll give you (inaudible).

我想，我會給你（聽不清）。

Yes.

是的。

So I'd say the upside that we saw was almost all from comms.

所以我想說我們看到的好處幾乎全部來自通訊。

I think that the rest of the markets and businesses, if you looked at it from that way, performed about as we expected.

我認為，如果你從那個角度來看，其他市場和企業的表現與我們預期的差不多。

And the comments on what the future of that looks like, I'd just go back to the statements that we made before and just staring at history of that market, it tends to be choppy.

關於未來的評論，我只是回到我們之前所做的陳述，只是盯著那個市場的歷史，它往往是波濤洶湧的。

So would we expect it to be choppy in the future?

那麼我們是否會期望它在未來會起伏不定？

We would.

我們會。

That's not a comment on second quarter, or the third or fourth.

這不是對第二季度、第三季度或第四季度的評論。

It's just the comment of looking at history, that market just tends to be choppy.

這只是回顧歷史的評論，市場往往是波動的。

We'll go next to Mark Lipacis with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起去 Mark Lipacis。

The first question is, will inventory -- will your factory loadings go up sequentially in this quarter versus last quarter?

第一個問題是，庫存 - 本季度您的工廠裝貨量會比上一季度連續增加嗎？

Or are they going to be going down?

或者他們會下降嗎？

I'm trying to understand if you believe inventories are going to be a source or use of cash this quarter?

我想了解您是否認為庫存將成為本季度現金的來源或使用？

Yes.

是的。

Last quarter, we characterized that because it was more relevant at the time given the inflection point on our revenue.

上個季度，我們將其描述為因為考慮到我們收入的拐點，它在當時更相關。

Now that the midpoint of our revenue is about the same as first quarter, I think it's time to just not focus on that and focus on the other things that we think are more important longer term, which is our ability to continue to grow the top line as we focus on Analog and Embedded, and industrial and automotive.

現在我們收入的中點與第一季度大致相同，我認為是時候不再關注這一點，而是關注我們認為更重要的長期其他事情，即我們繼續增長的能力線，因為我們專注於模擬和嵌入式，以及工業和汽車。

And with that, as we focus on growing free cash flow for the long term, as Dave mentioned earlier and we mentioned on the call, despite the drop in gross margin and the drop in utilization, our free cash flow on the trailing 12 months was essentially unchanged from 90 days ago.

因此，由於我們專注於長期增加自由現金流，正如 Dave 之前提到的和我們在電話會議上提到的，儘管毛利率和利用率下降，但我們過去 12 個月的自由現金流是與 90 天前基本沒有變化。

And as a percent of revenue, was 38.4%, right?

佔收入的百分比是 38.4%，對嗎？

And I think that just speaks to the quality of the business model that top line can change quite a bit, but if you look at that trailing 12-month free cash flow, it just tends to be much more stable.

而且我認為這只是說明了頂線可以發生很大變化的商業模式的質量，但如果你看看過去 12 個月的自由現金流，它往往會更加穩定。

And that just speaks to the quality of the model.

這恰恰說明了模型的質量。

Mark, do you have a follow-on?

馬克，你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Dave, in your script, you said, I may have misunderstood this.

戴夫，在你的劇本中，你說，我可能誤解了這一點。

But you said that, regionally, the business trends were consistent except for communications equipment.

但是你說，在區域上，除了通信設備之外，業務趨勢是一致的。

I don't think I really quite understand that.

我不認為我真的很明白這一點。

I'm hoping you can just spell that statement out for me.

我希望你能為我拼出那句話。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

So that -- you can -- there are -- you can think of the largest manufacturers of communications equipment.

所以——你可以——有——你可以想到最大的通信設備製造商。

We try not to go by customer of who those are.

我們盡量不去了解那些人是誰。

But there are only a couple of regions in which they exist and so you can imagine that you could connect those 2 pieces of information together.

但是它們只存在於幾個區域，所以你可以想像你可以將這兩條信息聯繫在一起。

So hopefully that helps.

所以希望這會有所幫助。

We'll go next to Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們將與 Goldman Sachs 一起去 Toshiya Hari。

I had a follow-up on the comms segment.

我對通訊部分進行了跟進。

Dave, you talked about the business being up 30% year-over-year.

戴夫，你談到業務同比增長 30%。

What was embedded in your original guide for the first quarter?

第一季度的原始指南中嵌入了什麼？

Well, again, I think that overall, our revenue came within the range of our expected guidance.

好吧，我認為總體而言，我們的收入在我們預期的指導範圍內。

It was in the upper half, primarily, because of the strength that we saw in comms equipment.

它位於上半部分，主要是因為我們在通信設備中看到了強大的力量。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then as a quick follow-up for Rafael.

然後作為拉斐爾的快速跟進。

I wanted to get an update on your thoughts on capital return.

我想了解您對資本回報的最新看法。

Your stock is back up to not quite your 52-week high, but pretty close.

您的股票回升至 52 週以來的最高點，但非常接近。

How should we think about buybacks versus dividends versus other uses of cash going forward?

我們應該如何考慮回購、股息和現金的其他用途？

Yes.

是的。

No, I'm happy to address that, Toshi.

不，我很樂意解決這個問題，Toshi。

First, let me take everybody back to our capital management strategy.

首先，讓我帶大家回到我們的資本管理戰略。

The objectives that we talked about and when it comes to cash return, our objective is to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company via buybacks and dividends.

我們談到的目標以及現金回報方面，我們的目標是通過回購和股息將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

And within that, we recognize that sometimes you strategically build cash, sometimes you strategically drain cash, right?

在這方面，我們認識到有時您會戰略性地積累現金，有時您會戰略性地消耗現金，對嗎？

So then you can actually return more than 100% of free cash flow.

那麼你實際上可以返還超過 100% 的自由現金流。

As frankly, we've done for the last few years.

坦率地說，過去幾年我們一直在這樣做。

But on the 2 pieces of dividends -- and buybacks and dividends, the goal is to provide a sustainable and growing dividend and we target to be somewhere between 40% to 60% of free cash flow.

但在兩項股息——回購和股息方面，目標是提供可持續且不斷增長的股息，我們的目標是達到自由現金流的 40% 至 60% 之間。

At the moment, on the trailing 12-month basis, we're 45%.

目前，在過去 12 個月的基礎上，我們是 45%。

And then on the repurchases, it's the accretive capture of future free cash flow for the long-term owners.

然後在回購方面，這是對長期所有者未來自由現金流的增加捕獲。

So -- but that essentially means -- so let me dive a little deeper on repurchases because that's, I think, that's where your question is going.

所以 - 但這基本上意味著 - 所以讓我更深入地探討回購問題，因為我認為這就是你的問題所在。

We use reasonable assumptions, not aggressive, not conservative, but reasonable assumptions of our expected growth of free cash flow per share for the company for a long time to come.

我們使用合理的假設，不是激進的，不是保守的，而是我們對公司未來很長一段時間每股自由現金流的預期增長的合理假設。

And then based on that, we develop our assessment on valuation, of intrinsic value of the company and then we compare that to the market price.

然後在此基礎上，我們對公司的內在價值進行估值評估，然後將其與市場價格進行比較。

And depending on the divergence of those, we buy back.

根據這些分歧，我們回購。

So as long as it's below their intrinsic and higher than market price, we'll be buying back shares.

因此，只要它低於其內在價格且高於市場價格，我們就會回購股票。

And how much, it depends on the divergence, right?

多少取決於分歧，對吧？

So you can see our history, the last 1.5 years or so.

所以你可以看到我們的歷史，過去 1.5 年左右。

We have been returning significantly more than 100% of free cash flow as we do that assessment.

在進行評估時，我們已經返還了超過 100% 的自由現金流。

But as long as the intrinsic value is higher than the market price, we will buy back shares in the open market.

但只要內在價值高於市場價格，我們就會在公開市場上回購股份。

Was that -- do you have a follow-up?

那是——你有後續行動嗎？

No.

不。

That was his follow-up.

那是他的後續行動。

We'll go next to Chris Danely with Citigroup.

接下來我們將與花旗集團的 Chris Danely 一起討論。

My question is on trends over in China.

我的問題是關於中國的趨勢。

Can you just comment on how the order trends have gone over there over the last 3 months?

您能否評論一下過去 3 個月的訂單趨勢如何？

Have you seen any stabilization?

你有看到任何穩定嗎？

And then, any words you can give us on distribution of inventory as well?

然後，關於庫存分配，您能給我們說些什麼嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Chris, I would say that as we said in the prepared remarks that really, all the regions prepared -- or performed similarly.

克里斯，我想說的是，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，實際上，所有地區都做好了準備——或表現相似。

With the exception of comms equipment that we talked about, all of the markets were pretty consistent this quarter.

除了我們談到的通信設備外，本季度所有市場都非常穩定。

Distributor inventories were up a little more than a day, sequentially, and to just a little over 4.5 weeks.

分銷商庫存環比增加了一天多一點，達到 4.5 週多一點。

Do you have a follow-on, Chris?

你有後續嗎，克里斯？

Yes.

是的。

I do.

我願意。

So a bit of a longer-term question, I'll break with form on the call.

所以這是一個較長期的問題，我會在電話會議上打破形式。

If we look at your "other revenue", it's like 8% of sales now, and the operating margin has been sort of steadily trending down over the last few years.

如果我們看一下你的“其他收入”，它現在大約佔銷售額的 8%，而且營業利潤率在過去幾年中一直呈穩步下降趨勢。

And I think the most recent quarter was 15%.

我認為最近一個季度是 15%。

So it was about 25% below the corporate average.

因此，它比公司平均水平低約 25%。

A, why is that operating margin so low?

A，為什麼營業利潤率這麼低？

What's going on there?

那裡發生了什麼事？

And then, B, why not just start shutting down or ending life those products?

然後，B，為什麼不開始關閉或結束這些產品的生命呢？

Yes.

是的。

A couple of things on that.

有幾件事。

Recently, we -- in this last quarter, we did have a decrease inside of that business, within our DLP business but a lot of that was due to this consignment transition that we have talked about.

最近，我們 - 在上個季度，我們確實在 DLP 業務內部減少了該業務，但其中很大一部分是由於我們談到的這種寄售過渡。

So that's part of what drove kind of the short-term and also maybe some of what the margin issue that you're attributing to.

因此，這是推動短期發展的部分原因，也可能是您歸因於保證金問題的部分原因。

I would also remind you of some of our -- the acquisition charges, for example, restructuring charges, that's all in that other piece.

我還要提醒您我們的一些 - 收購費用，例如重組費用，這些都在另一部分中。

Remember, especially on the acquisition charges, that's noncash.

請記住，尤其是在收購費用方面，這是非現金的。

So that's where -- that represents cash that went out the door about 8 years ago.

所以這就是 - 這代表了大約 8 年前流出的現金。

So if you adjust for that, that maybe gives you a better picture.

所以如果你對此進行調整，那可能會給你一個更好的畫面。

And lastly, we do have the custom ASIC piece there, a couple of hundred million still left per year there.

最後，我們確實有定制的 ASIC 芯片，每年仍有幾億美元留在那裡。

And over the next 3, 4 -- 2, 3, 4 years that will trend to 0. The rest of the business should be fairly steady and inside of others.

在接下來的 3 年、4 年、2 年、3 年、4 年內，這一數字將趨向於 0。其餘業務應該相當穩定，並且在其他業務中。

Yes.

是的。

And the other comment that I would make, Chris, that you can see the seasonality of calculator, not only in the revenues, but you can see it in the operating margins.

克里斯，我要發表的另一個評論是，你可以看到計算器的季節性，不僅在收入中，而且你可以在營業利潤率中看到。

So almost all of those revenues come for back-to-school.

所以幾乎所有這些收入都來自返校。

So we'll see that at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of third.

所以我們會在第二季度末和第三季度初看到這一點。

But obviously, the expenses for that business carry out throughout the whole year.

但顯然，該業務的費用貫穿全年。

So you'll see, always, you'll see, because that revenue comes in, in that short period of time, the operating margins in those 2 quarters look much nicer.

所以你會看到，總是，你會看到，因為在這麼短的時間內收入進來了，這兩個季度的營業利潤率看起來要好得多。

But -- and the last comment I'll make, and we kind of joke about, we should have come up with a more creative name for other, like other good stuff or something like that.

但是——我最後要說的是，我們開玩笑說，我們應該為其他人想出一個更有創意的名字，比如其他好東西或類似的東西。

So those businesses generate lots of cash for us and they don't take a lot of resources to maintain them.

因此，這些企業為我們產生了大量現金，而且他們不需要大量資源來維持它們。

So that's why they remain in the family.

所以這就是他們留在家裡的原因。

We'll go next to Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們將與摩根士丹利一起去喬摩爾旁邊。

I just had a question on the genesis of some of the inventory-related weakness you're seeing.

我只是對您所看到的一些與庫存相關的弱點的起源有疑問。

We saw, last year, some of the tightness of things that TI doesn't sell, like MLCC capacitors and things like that, where the lead times got really inflated.

去年，我們看到 TI 不銷售的一些緊俏產品，例如 MLCC 電容器和類似產品，交貨時間真的很長。

And clearly, that's corrected now.

很明顯，現在已經糾正了。

I guess as you look back on that, do you think that, that triggered inventory of TI components to get built?

我想當您回顧那件事時，您是否認為這觸發了 TI 組件的庫存？

And where do you think we are in sort of that cycle playing its way through in terms of shortages of other components that TI can't control?

就 TI 無法控制的其他組件短缺而言，您認為我們處於那個循環中的什麼位置？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Joe, that's -- as you're describing it, that's kind of what drives semiconductor cycles, right?

我認為，喬，正如你所描述的那樣，這就是驅動半導體週期的原因，對吧？

I think that's -- if you think of a customer, wherever they are in the world, and they start to get notified from their suppliers and our peers that their lead times are going out, and even though ours aren't going out, they may decide to proactively take their inventory position from 6 weeks to 9 weeks over a 90-day period.

我認為那是——如果你想到一個客戶，無論他們在世界的哪個地方，他們開始從他們的供應商和我們的同行那裡得到通知，他們的交貨時間即將結束，即使我們的沒有，他們可能會決定在 90 天內主動將其庫存狀況從 6 週減少到 9 週。

And that will drive strength in the business overall.

這將推動整體業務的發展。

And 90 days later, they decide to go from 9 to 12 weeks of inventory because things look like they're going to get even tighter.

90 天后，他們決定將庫存從 9 週減少到 12 週，因為情況看起來會變得更加緊張。

And then once they get comfortable, it moves back in the other way.

然後一旦他們感到舒服，它就會以另一種方式返回。

So as you watch that play out, we had 10 quarters of very strong growth.

所以當你看到結果時，我們有 10 個季度非常強勁的增長。

Most of that was double digit.

其中大部分是兩位數。

I think most people, when they looked at that, would describe that as above trend.

我認為大多數人在看到這一點時會將其描述為高於趨勢。

And what follows 10 quarters of running above trend is a few quarters that will run below.

在 10 個季度高於趨勢之後，接下來的幾個季度將低於趨勢。

So do you have a follow-on, Joe?

那麼你有後續嗎，喬？

Yes.

是的。

And I guess you may have touched on this and I missed it, but any change in your own lead times over the last 3 months?

我想你可能已經觸及了這一點，但我錯過了，但過去 3 個月你自己的交貨時間有什麼變化嗎？

Generally, our lead times have remained stable.

一般來說，我們的交貨時間保持穩定。

Even through this -- through the period of very strong demand, our lead times have remained stable.

即使在需求非常強勁的時期，我們的交貨時間也保持穩定。

I think that you can always find pockets, just as you can today, where we work with customers very aggressively to close.

我認為你總能找到口袋，就像今天一樣，我們非常積極地與客戶合作以關閉。

And I think another important metric that we track, Joe, is on-time delivery.

Joe，我認為我們跟踪的另一個重要指標是準時交貨。

And those have remained very, very high.

而這些仍然非常非常高。

Other customer service metrics remained very high.

其他客戶服務指標仍然很高。

So meaning that if someone does come and order products that, at lead time, are we shipping them to the commitments that we've got, and those remained high through that whole cycle.

因此，這意味著如果有人確實來訂購產品，那麼我們是否會在交貨時間將它們運送到我們已經做出的承諾，並且在整個週期中這些承諾仍然很高。

So -- and some of the things that we're doing, like building inventory of low-volume parts during this peak period of weaker demand, we're doing that to ensure that we can continue to deliver product consistently to customers.

所以——我們正在做的一些事情，比如在這個需求疲軟的高峰期建立小批量零件的庫存，我們這樣做是為了確保我們能夠繼續向客戶持續交付產品。

That's really what's driving that.

這才是真正的驅動力。

And that and the visibility that we get through programs like consignment, kind of, the combination of those things, we're actually doing other things around inventory positions in order entry, and we've summarized that as really the belief that there's strategic value in owning and controlling that inventory and keeping it on our balance sheet.

那以及我們通過寄售等程序獲得的可見性，這些東西的組合，我們實際上在訂單輸入中圍繞庫存位置做其他事情，我們將其總結為確實存在戰略價值的信念擁有和控制該庫存並將其保留在我們的資產負債表上。

So with that, I will turn it over to Rafael to wrap things up for us.

因此，我將把它交給 Rafael 來為我們總結一下。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Let me finish with a few comments on key items for you to remember.

最後，讓我對關鍵項目發表一些評論，供您記住。

First, as we mentioned last quarter, we will stay focused on what will make us stronger long-term and diligent in the short term.

首先，正如我們上個季度提到的那樣，我們將繼續專注於使我們在短期內變得更強大和勤奮的因素。

Second, we will remain focused on Analog and Embedded, the best products, and industrial and automotive, the best markets.

其次，我們將繼續專注於最好的模擬和嵌入式產品，以及最好的工業和汽車市場。

And third, we will continue to be disciplined in executing our capital management strategy and remain committed to returning free cash flow to the owners of the company.

第三，我們將繼續嚴格執行我們的資本管理戰略，並繼續致力於將自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

Thank you, and good night.

謝謝，晚安。

That does conclude today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。