德州儀器 (TXN) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Texas Instruments 3Q '19 Earnings Release Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎來到德州儀器 19 年第三季度收益發布電話會議。

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Dave Pahl.

此時，我想將會議轉交給 Dave Pahl。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2019 earnings conference call.

下午好，感謝您參加我們 2019 年第三季度的收益電話會議。

Rafael Lizardi, TI's Chief Financial Officer, is with me today.

TI 的首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 今天和我在一起。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

對於錯過該版本的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

此電話正在網絡上直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。

A replay will be available through the web.

重播將通過網絡提供。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

此電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

我們鼓勵您查看有關今天發布的收益發布中包含的前瞻性陳述的通知，以及 TI 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

For today's call, let me start by summarizing what Rafael and I will be reviewing.

對於今天的電話會議，讓我首先總結一下 Rafael 和我將要審查的內容。

I'll be covering the following topics: first, a high-level summary of the financial results for the third quarter; second, given the additional weakness we've seen, I'll provide some comments about what we're seeing with added insight by segment and end market.

我將涵蓋以下主題：首先，對第三季度財務業績進行高度總結；其次，鑑於我們已經看到的額外弱點，我將提供一些關於我們所看到的內容的評論，並按細分市場和終端市場提供更多見解。

Rafael will then review profitability, capital management results and then the outlook.

拉斐爾隨後將審查盈利能力、資本管理結果以及展望。

After which, we'll open the call for Q&A.

之後，我們將打開問答電話。

Starting with a high-level summary of our third quarter financial results.

從我們第三季度財務業績的高級摘要開始。

Revenue decreased 11% from a year ago and came in below the midpoint of our guidance as we saw most end markets continue to weaken further.

收入比一年前下降 11%，低於我們指導的中點，因為我們看到大多數終端市場繼續進一步走弱。

In our core businesses, Analog revenue declined 8% and Embedded Processing revenue declined 19% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

在我們的核心業務中，與去年同期相比，模擬收入下降了 8%，嵌入式處理收入下降了 19%。

Both businesses' year-on-year growth decelerated.

兩項業務的同比增長均有所放緩。

Earnings per share were $1.49, including a $0.09 benefit for items not in our original guidance due to discrete tax benefits.

每股收益為 1.49 美元，其中包括 0.09 美元的因離散稅收優惠而未在我們最初指導中的項目收益。

With that backdrop, I'll now provide details on our performance.

在此背景下，我現在將詳細介紹我們的表現。

In the third quarter, our cash flow from operations was $2 billion.

第三季度，我們的運營現金流為 20 億美元。

As we note each quarter, we believe that free cash flow growth, especially on a per-share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term.

正如我們每個季度所指出的那樣，我們認為自由現金流的增長，尤其是每股增長，對於實現股東價值的長期最大化最為重要。

We remain committed to returning all of our free cash flow to owners.

我們仍然致力於將我們所有的自由現金流返還給所有者。

Free cash flow for the trailing 12-month period was $6 billion, up 2% from a year ago.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 60 億美元，比去年同期增長 2%。

Free cash flow margin for the same period was 41% of revenue.

同期自由現金流利潤率為收入的 41%。

We continue to benefit from the quality of our product portfolio that is long-lived and diverse and the efficiency of our manufacturing strategy, the latter of which includes our growing 300-millimeter Analog output.

我們繼續受益於我們經久耐用且多樣化的產品組合的質量以及我們製造戰略的效率，後者包括我們不斷增長的 300 毫米模擬輸出。

We believe that free cash flow will be valued only if it's productively invested in the business or if it's returned to owners.

我們認為，只有在對企業進行有效投資或將其返還給所有者時，自由現金流才會受到重視。

For the trailing 12-month period, we returned $7.4 billion of cash to owners through a combination of dividends and stock repurchases, demonstrating our confidence in the business model and our commitment to return all of our free cash flow to owners.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式向所有者返還了 74 億美元現金，表明我們對商業模式充滿信心，並承諾將所有自由現金流返還給所有者。

Moving on, I'll now provide some details on the third quarter by segment and end market.

繼續，我現在將按細分市場和終端市場提供有關第三季度的一些詳細信息。

For the year-ago quarter, Analog revenue declined 8% due to declines in Power, Signal Chain and High Volume.

去年同期，由於電源、信號鍊和大容量業務的下滑，模擬業務收入下降了 8%。

Embedded Processing revenue declined 19% from the year-ago quarter due to declines in both product lines, Processors and Connected Microcontrollers.

由於處理器和連接微控制器這兩條產品線的下滑，嵌入式處理收入比去年同期下降了 19%。

All markets declined across Embedded, but the declines were most pronounced in the automotive and communications equipment markets.

嵌入式的所有市場均出現下滑，但汽車和通信設備市場的下滑最為明顯。

Other declined by 19% from the year-ago quarter due to DLP and custom ASIC.

由於 DLP 和定制 ASIC，其他業務較去年同期下降 19%。

Next, I'll provide some comments on what we're seeing in the market and insight into this quarter's performance by end market versus a year ago.

接下來，我將就我們在市場上看到的情況發表一些評論，並深入了解本季度終端市場與一年前的表現。

As we've said, when you look at 30 years of history, semiconductor cycles can vary widely but typically experience four to five quarters of year-on-year declines before returning to positive growth.

正如我們所說，當你回顧 30 年的歷史時，半導體週期可能會有很大差異，但通常會經歷四到五個季度的同比下降，然後才會恢復正增長。

We've also said that the current trade tensions could impact the depth and duration of the cycle.

我們還說過，當前的貿易緊張局勢可能會影響週期的深度和持續時間。

We've provided these comments as context, not as a prediction about the current cycle.

我們提供這些評論作為背景，而不是對當前週期的預測。

With the end of this current quarter, we've now experienced our fourth consecutive quarter of negative year-on-year growth.

在本季度末，我們已經連續第四個季度出現同比負增長。

There is an increasing number of reports of macroeconomic weakness with trade tensions as the primary contributor.

越來越多的報告稱，貿易緊張局勢是宏觀經濟疲軟的主要原因。

Consistent with this, the weakness we've seen in the third quarter was broad-based across all markets and most sectors.

與此相一致的是，我們在第三季度看到的疲軟在所有市場和大多數行業都有廣泛的基礎。

Industrial, automotive and personal electronics all declined upper-single digits from the year ago, as almost all 28 sectors within these markets declined.

工業、汽車和個人電子產品均較一年前下降了個位數以上，因為這些市場中幾乎所有 28 個行業都出現了下滑。

In communications equipment, revenue declined about 35% from the year-ago and 20% sequentially.

在通信設備方面，收入同比下降約 35%，環比下降 20%。

We saw weakness across all major customers, regions and technologies.

我們看到了所有主要客戶、地區和技術的疲軟。

And lastly, enterprise systems declined from the year-ago quarter.

最後，企業系統比去年同期有所下降。

We've learned over the years that staying focused on building the company stronger especially in the face of a weak market provides great, long-term rewards.

多年來，我們了解到，專注於將公司建設得更強大，尤其是在市場疲軟的情況下，可以帶來巨大的長期回報。

We continue to invest in and leverage our competitive advantages.

我們繼續投資並利用我們的競爭優勢。

The breadth of our product portfolio, and channels to market, including our direct sales and applications team as well as TI.com, provides us the broadest reach to our customer base, a unique advantage.

我們廣泛的產品組合和市場渠道，包括我們的直銷和應用團隊以及 TI.com，為我們提供了最廣泛的客戶群覆蓋，這是一個獨特的優勢。

We've been evolving our distribution network over the years and continue to do so today as we build stronger, direct relationships with our customers.

多年來，我們一直在發展我們的分銷網絡，並在今天繼續這樣做，因為我們與客戶建立了更牢固、直接的關係。

We remain focused on Analog and Embedded, the best products.

我們仍然專注於最好的模擬和嵌入式產品。

We remain focused on industrial and automotive, the best markets.

我們仍然專注於工業和汽車這兩個最好的市場。

They'll be the fastest-growing semiconductor markets as they have increasing semiconductor content and also provide diversity and longevity.

它們將成為增長最快的半導體市場，因為它們的半導體含量不斷增加，而且還提供多樣性和壽命。

All of this translates to a high terminal value of our portfolio.

所有這些都轉化為我們投資組合的高終值。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and the outlook.

Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和前景。

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.45 billion or 65% of revenue.

本季度的毛利潤為 24.5 億美元，佔收入的 65%。

From a year ago, gross profit decreased due to lower revenue.

與一年前相比，由於收入減少，毛利有所下降。

Gross profit margin decreased 90 basis points.

毛利率下降90個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $778 million, about even from a year ago and about as expected.

本季度的運營支出為 7.78 億美元，與一年前持平，與預期基本持平。

On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 22% of revenue.

在過去 12 個月的基礎上，運營費用佔收入的 22%。

Over the last 12 months, we have invested $1.56 billion in R&D, an important element of our capital allocation.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們在研發方面投資了 15.6 億美元，這是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。

We are pleased with our disciplined process of allocating capital to R&D, which we believe will allow us to continue to grow our top line over the long term.

我們對我們將資金分配給研發的嚴格流程感到滿意，我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續增長我們的收入。

Acquisition charges, a non-cash expense, were $79 million.

非現金支出的收購費用為 7900 萬美元。

Acquisition charges will decline to about $50 million in the fourth quarter and will remain at that level through the third quarter of 2021.

第四季度的收購費用將下降至約 5000 萬美元，並將在 2021 年第三季度之前保持該水平。

Operating profit was $1.59 billion or 42% of revenue.

營業利潤為 15.9 億美元，佔收入的 42%。

Operating profit was down 18% from the year-ago quarter.

營業利潤較去年同期下降 18%。

Operating margin for Analog was 46%, down from 50% a year ago, and for Embedded Processing was 32%, down from 35% a year ago.

模擬業務的營業利潤率為 46%，低於一年前的 50%，嵌入式處理業務的營業利潤率為 32%，低於一年前的 35%。

Despite current weakness, our focused investments on the best sustainable growth opportunities with differentiated positions will enable both businesses to contribute nicely to free cash flow growth over time.

儘管目前疲軟，但我們專注於具有差異化定位的最佳可持續增長機會的投資將使兩家公司能夠隨著時間的推移為自由現金流增長做出很好的貢獻。

Other income and expense was 34 -- was a $34 million benefit, up $11 million from a year ago.

其他收入和支出為 34 - 3400 萬美元的收益，比一年前增加了 1100 萬美元。

Net income in the third quarter was $1.43 billion or $1.49 per share, which included a $0.09 benefit for items that were not in our prior outlook as we have discussed.

第三季度的淨收入為 14.3 億美元或每股 1.49 美元，其中包括 0.09 美元的收益，這些收益不在我們先前討論過的展望中。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我從我們的現金生成開始評論我們的資本管理結果。

Cash flow from operations was $1.99 billion in the quarter.

本季度運營現金流為 19.9 億美元。

Capital expenditures were $149 million in the quarter.

本季度的資本支出為 1.49 億美元。

Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $6.03 billion.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 60.3 億美元。

In September, we announced we will increase our quarterly dividend by 17%, marking our 16th year of dividend increases.

9 月，我們宣布將季度股息提高 17%，標誌著我們連續第 16 年增加股息。

In the quarter, we paid $721 million in dividends and repurchased $456 million of our stock for a total return to owners of $1.18 billion.

本季度，我們支付了 7.21 億美元的股息並回購了 4.56 億美元的股票，為所有者帶來的總回報為 11.8 億美元。

In total, we have returned $7.38 billion in the past 12 months, consistent with our strategy to return all free cash flow.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們總共返還了 73.8 億美元，這與我們返還所有自由現金流的戰略一致。

Over the same period, our dividends represented 48% of free cash flow, underscoring their sustainability.

同期，我們的股息佔自由現金流的 48%，凸顯了它們的可持續性。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $5.07 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第三季度末有 50.7 億美元的現金和短期投資。

In the quarter, we repaid $750 million of debt and issued $750 million of debt with a coupon of 2.25% due in 10 years.

本季度，我們償還了 7.5 億美元的債務，並發行了 7.5 億美元的 10 年期票息為 2.25% 的債務。

This results in total debt of $5.8 billion with a weighted average coupon of 2.99%.

這導致總債務為 58 億美元，加權平均息票率為 2.99%。

Inventory days were 139, up eight days from a year ago and down four days sequentially.

庫存天數為 139 天，比去年同期增加 8 天，環比減少 4 天。

We are pleased with the progress we have made replenishing inventory of low-volume devices and implementing the next phase of our consignment programs.

我們對在補充小批量設備庫存和實施下一階段寄售計劃方面取得的進展感到滿意。

Work in both of these areas is mostly complete.

這兩個領域的工作已基本完成。

Given the weaker environment, we have reduced wafer starts to align with demand.

鑑於較弱的環境，我們減少了晶圓的啟動以符合需求。

Turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.07 billion to $3.33 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $0.91 to $1.09, which includes an estimated $5 million discrete tax benefit.

談到我們對第四季度的展望，我們預計 TI 收入在 30.7 億美元至 33.3 億美元之間，每股收益在 0.91 美元至 1.09 美元之間，其中包括估計 500 萬美元的離散稅收優惠。

We continue to expect our annual operating tax rate to be about 16% for 2019.

我們繼續預計 2019 年的年度營業稅率約為 16%。

As a reminder, acquisition charges will decline to about $50 million in the fourth quarter and remain at that level through the third quarter of 2021.

提醒一下，收購費用將在第四季度下降至約 5000 萬美元，並在 2021 年第三季度之前保持該水平。

In closing, as Dave mentioned, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term.

最後，正如 Dave 提到的，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。

We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are technology and manufacturing, portfolio breadth, market reach and diverse and long-lived products.

我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即技術和製造、產品組合廣度、市場範圍以及多樣化和長壽命的產品。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best products, Analog and Embedded Processing, and the best markets, industrial and automotive, which we believe will enable us to continue to improve and deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們將通過嚴格的資本配置和專注於最好的產品、模擬和嵌入式處理以及最好的工業和汽車市場來繼續加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續改善並提供每股自由現金流長期增長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael.

謝謝，拉斐爾。

Operator, you can now open the lines for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開問題線路。

(Operator Instructions) Operator?

（操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們將從美國銀行的 Vivek Arya 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

The first one is on the Q4 outlook.

第一個是關於第四季度的展望。

How do we get confident that this isn't company-specific or share loss, because when we looked at some of the SIA data for July and August, it was more positive.

我們如何確信這不是特定於公司或股票的損失，因為當我們查看 7 月和 8 月的一些 SIA 數據時，它更為積極。

So is there anything that is company-specific in Q4 because the guidance is substantially below?

那麼第四季度是否有任何特定於公司的內容，因為指導大大低於？

We understand the macroenvironment is not that great, but is there anything one-off, company specific, that is impacting your guidance?

我們知道宏觀環境不是那麼好，但是有沒有什麼一次性的、公司特定的東西會影響你的指導？

Is there any share loss issue?

是否存在任何股份損失問題？

Any other color that you could provide would be very helpful.

您可以提供的任何其他顏色都會非常有幫助。

Yes, Vivek, I'll take that.

是的，維維克，我會接受的。

I'd say -- state the obvious, obviously, the SIA numbers are more backward-looking versus looking into fourth quarter.

我會說 - 顯而易見的是，與展望第四季度相比，SIA 的數字更向後看。

And I think when you judge share, and we've talked about this when, in the past that you really need to judge it over multiple quarters.

我認為當你判斷份額時，我們在過去討論過這個問題，你真的需要在多個季度進行判斷。

You look at diversity of our revenue, we talk about one of our competitive advantages being diversity and longevity.

你看看我們收入的多樣性，我們談論我們的競爭優勢之一是多樣性和長壽。

Our last, our biggest product last year, as an example, was about 0.8% of our total revenue.

例如，我們去年最大的產品，大約占我們總收入的 0.8%。

So just that diversity, I think, has served us well and will continue to serve us well.

因此，我認為正是這種多樣性為我們提供了良好的服務，並將繼續為我們提供良好的服務。

You have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Somewhat more longer term, there's a lot of discussion of a parallel technology and semis ecosystem developing in China as it tries to get more self-sufficient.

從更長遠的角度來看，有很多關於在中國發展平行技術和半導體生態系統的討論，因為它試圖變得更加自給自足。

How well is TI placed from a competitive perspective?

從競爭的角度來看，TI 的排名如何？

Do you think there are substitutes for your kind of Analog and Embedded products from Chinese vendors over some intermediate time frame?

您認為在一段時間內中國供應商的模擬和嵌入式產品會有替代品嗎？

And what would TI need to do different as a company to react to this new ecosystem?

作為一家公司，TI 需要做些什麼來應對這個新的生態系統？

Yes, I'll start off.

是的，我要開始了。

I think if you look at the Analog and the Embedded markets, they've got many natural competitive moats that sit around the marketplace overall.

我想如果你看看模擬和嵌入式市場，它們在整個市場周圍都有許多天然的競爭護城河。

I think that we've certainly heard discussions of Chinese customers wanting to ensure that they have alternatives.

我認為我們肯定聽說過中國客戶希望確保他們有其他選擇的討論。

But it's very different than being designed out.

但這與設計出來有很大不同。

So our customers overall are very pragmatic.

所以我們的客戶總體上非常務實。

They're looking for components with the highest performance, the lowest cost and the most dependable delivery.

他們正在尋找具有最高性能、最低成本和最可靠交付的組件。

So I think we'll continue to focus on those things.

所以我認為我們將繼續關注這些事情。

And they have served us well in the past, and we believe they'll continue to serve us well in the future.

他們過去為我們服務得很好，我們相信他們將來會繼續為我們服務。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

I guess I wanted to follow up on that a little bit around Q4.

我想我想在第四季度左右跟進一下。

We've been in this environment for a while.

我們在這種環境中已經有一段時間了。

I think you had your first guide for a cut actually on this call a year ago, but even on that call you had guided Q4 '18 down about 12% sequentially, which is already (inaudible).

我認為你在一年前的這個電話會議上有了第一個降息指南，但即使在那次電話會議上，你也指導 18 年第四季度連續下降了約 12%，這已經（聽不清）了。

We're a year later, we've had a number of rounds of cuts, so the base is even lower.

一年後，我們進行了多輪削減，所以基數更低。

Now you're guiding Q4 '19 down like 15% sequentially, so it's even worse on a sequential basis than we saw in the year-ago quarter when they started.

現在你指導 19 年第四季度連續下降 15%，所以在連續的基礎上比我們在去年同期開始時看到的還要糟糕。

I guess if -- and again, it's not like things have -- things have been weak all along.

我想如果——再說一遍，事情並非如此——事情一直都很疲軟。

I guess if you can give us some kind of an indication, maybe what they did immediately worse is this, Huawei pull forward working off, is this something going on because your distribution strategy is different from your competitors?

我想如果你能給我們一些指示，也許他們做的更糟糕的是，華為拉開了工作的序幕，這是因為你的分銷策略與競爭對手不同嗎？

I guess anything you can give us around the tactical near-term environment driving the Q4 guide would be helpful, just given what we've seen over the last year or so in those trends.

考慮到我們在過去一年左右的時間裡在這些趨勢中看到的情況，我想你能為我們提供的關於推動第四季度指南的戰術近期環境的任何內容都會有所幫助。

Yes, Stacy, thanks for the question.

是的，斯泰西，謝謝你的提問。

Let me take a shot at that, and then Dave will follow up with other comments, but our sense is that customers are just far more cautious than they were certainly a year ago, but even 90 days ago.

讓我試一試，然後 Dave 會跟進其他評論，但我們的感覺是，客戶肯定比一年前要謹慎得多，甚至比 90 天前還要謹慎。

And many of them, when talk about their caution, they mention the trade tensions that we know have been happening and have been kind of accumulating over the last three or four quarters.

他們中的許多人在談到他們的謹慎時，提到了我們所知道的貿易緊張局勢，並且在過去三四個季度中一直在累積。

And the consistency of that breath of weakness supports that this is a macro situation that is driving the further weakness that we're seeing.

這種疲軟氣息的持續支持表明，這是一種宏觀形勢，正在推動我們所看到的進一步疲軟。

Yes, do you have a follow-on?

是的，你有後續嗎？

I do.

我願意。

So you talked about evolving your distribution strategy and relationships.

所以你談到了發展你的分銷策略和關係。

Do you think it's possible though that any of those activities, as you disintermediate more of them, may be having like in the near term, negative impact on your revenue outlook because you can rely on them less to do things like demand generation and the like?

您是否認為這些活動中的任何一項，隨著您對其中更多活動的中介化，可能會在短期內對您的收入前景產生負面影響，因為您可以減少對它們的依賴來做需求生成等事情？

Is there I guess, just any change you've made recently, you think could be having any sort of impact on the near-term horizon?

我猜，您最近所做的任何更改，您認為可能會對近期範圍產生任何影響嗎？

Yes, simply in a word, I'd just say no, Stacy.

是的，簡而言之，我只想說不，史黛西。

I think establishing a more direct relationship with our customer just yields more rewards than it does risk.

我認為與我們的客戶建立更直接的關係只會產生比風險更多的回報。

And it gives us greater access to those customers.

它使我們能夠更好地接觸這些客戶。

And you've seen us evolve that over the last several years.

你已經看到我們在過去幾年中不斷發展。

And we've made investments in order to provide very high levels of service for our customers, especially as we move to a more direct business model.

我們已經進行了投資，以便為我們的客戶提供非常高水平的服務，尤其是當我們轉向更直接的商業模式時。

And these investments include the things that you've heard us talk about, new capabilities and in some cases, improved capabilities, to our website, e-commerce enhancements for demand creation, inventory consignment programs that we've talked about on the last few calls and other things like order fulfillment services, so these improved capabilities, combined with our sales and applications organization, which by the way is the largest in the semiconductor industry, just help us provide great products and great support to our customers.

這些投資包括您聽到我們談論的內容、我們網站的新功能，在某些情況下還包括改進的功能、為創造需求而增強的電子商務、我們在過去幾年中談到的庫存寄售計劃電話和訂單履行服務等其他事情，所以這些改進的能力，再加上我們的銷售和應用組織，順便說一下，這是半導體行業最大的，這有助於我們為客戶提供優質的產品和強大的支持。

And that's really what we've been focused on.

而這正是我們一直關注的重點。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Dave, I just want to go back to the Embedded, kind of when I looked at how your Analog business is trending, it's about in line with kind of our expectations and quite frankly, what your peer group is doing.

戴夫，我只想回到嵌入式，當我查看您的模擬業務趨勢時，它與我們的預期相符，坦率地說，您的同行正在做的事情。

But when I look at Embedded, it seems to be demonstrably worse.

但是當我看嵌入式時，情況似乎明顯更糟。

In fact, if Q4 is down sequentially, equally across all segments, you'll be down, peak to trough, this cycle in Embedded, more so than you were in the '09 financial crisis when financial markets weren't working properly and companies couldn't actually get funding for inventory.

事實上，如果第 4 季度在所有細分市場中連續下降，那麼你將會下降，從高峰到低谷，嵌入式中的這個週期，比你在 09 年金融危機時金融市場不能正常運作和公司實際上無法為存貨籌集資金。

So I just want to kind of go back and kind of understand why you think the Embedded business is doing so poorly relative to overall kind of industry trends?

所以我只想回顧一下，了解為什麼您認為嵌入式業務相對於整體行業趨勢而言表現如此糟糕？

Is that really where the comms weakness comes in?

這真的是通信弱點的來源嗎？

Or if you can help me understand that a little bit better, it'd be helpful.

或者，如果你能幫助我更好地理解這一點，那將會很有幫助。

And John, to put it in context, we talked about at the company level, so including Analog and Embedded, that all the markets were weak, that when we saw the sectors that make up those markets, that most of them were weak.

約翰，把它放在上下文中，我們在公司層面討論過，包括模擬和嵌入式，所有市場都很疲軟，當我們看到構成這些市場的部門時，他們中的大多數都很疲軟。

But that weakness was just more pronounced.

但這種弱點更加明顯。

It's directionally the same, but just more pronounced in Embedded.

它的方向相同，但在嵌入式中更為明顯。

And we did see, and if you look now just inside of Embedded, we saw a more pronounced weakness in automotive and in communications.

我們確實看到了，如果你現在只看嵌入式內部，我們看到了汽車和通信領域更明顯的弱點。

So again, I think that those types of things need to be measured over longer periods of time.

因此，我再次認為這些類型的事情需要在更長的時間段內進行衡量。

And so I wouldn't judge that business on any one quarter results overall.

因此，我不會根據任何一個季度的總體業績來判斷該業務。

You have a follow-on, John?

你有後續嗎，約翰？

Yes.

是的。

Just as a follow-up, just going back to the comms part of the business.

作為後續行動，回到業務的通信部分。

I'm just kind of curious, not that the macro is all that strong, but to what extent can you quantify, if at all, the impact from bans?

我只是有點好奇，並不是說宏觀經濟有那麼強大，而是你能在多大程度上量化禁令的影響（如果有的話）？

Is this Huawei having ordered a lot more inventory throughout the year than you thought?

這華為全年訂購的庫存是不是比你想像的要多很多？

Is this a certain company or a region?

這是某個公司還是某個地區？

Just on the comms side, any color you can give on the weakness would be helpful.

就通信方面而言，您可以在弱點上給出的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes, I think we can't rule out, obviously, customers having built inventory in preparations for builds or concerns with the trade tensions.

是的，我認為我們不能排除客戶在準備建造或擔心貿易緊張局勢時建立庫存。

But the weakness that we saw wasn't limited to any region, so was very broad-based.

但我們看到的弱點並不局限於任何地區，而是非常廣泛的。

When we look at the largest customers inside of comms equipment that was across the largest customers.

當我們查看最大客戶的通信設備內部的最大客戶時。

And again, it was -- we talked about that, it was across the technology.

再一次，它是——我們談到了這一點，它涉及到整個技術。

So really broad-based weakness.

所以真的是廣泛的弱點。

So not just one customer, not just one technology or not just one region.

因此，不僅僅是一個客戶，不僅僅是一種技術，也不僅僅是一個地區。

So hopefully that color helps.

所以希望這種顏色有所幫助。

Our next question comes from Ross Seymore of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

Dave, you gave the year-over-year comments and then the sequentials for the comm equipment.

戴夫，你給出了同比評論，然後是通訊設備的順序。

But I think we're all trying to solve the main problem of kind of why is your guidance so weak in the fourth quarter.

但我認為我們都在努力解決為什麼你的指導在第四季度如此疲軟的主要問題。

To the extent it provides any clues, could you give us what the quarter-over-quarter sequentials were by the end markets outside of the comm, which you already gave?

在某種程度上它提供了任何線索，你能告訴我們你已經提供的通信之外的終端市場的季度環比序列是什麼嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Industrial and automotive declined low-single digits, Ross.

羅斯，工業和汽車行業的跌幅為低個位數。

Personal electronics grew mid-teens.

個人電子產品增長了十幾歲。

And that was based on really just seasonal growth that we would expect to see.

這是基於我們期望看到的真正的季節性增長。

We already commented on comms equipment declining about 20%, and then Enterprise Systems grew in the quarter.

我們已經評論過通信設備下降了約 20%，然後企業系統在本季度有所增長。

You have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes, I guess one on the cash return side of things.

是的，我想是在現金回報方面。

I know one quarter doesn't necessarily make a trend, but you guys have been ridiculously consistent in a positive way with your buyback over time.

我知道四分之一不一定會成為趨勢，但隨著時間的推移，你們一直以積極的方式荒謬地保持回購。

I know you raised the dividend this last quarter but I think the share repurchase was the lowest since, I believe, the second quarter of 2012 if my model is right.

我知道你上個季度提高了股息，但我認為股票回購是自 2012 年第二季度以來最低的，如果我的模型是正確的話。

And the aggregate of the two, the dividend and the buyback, were meaningfully less than the free cash flow in the quarter.

股息和回購這兩者的總和明顯低於本季度的自由現金流。

I know it's not just one quarter, but is there anything that explains why the buyback was significantly lower than it's been in any time in recent history?

我知道這不僅僅是四分之一，但有什麼可以解釋為什麼回購明顯低於近期歷史上的任何時候？

Yes, what I would tell you on that is take you back to our capital management strategy, and our objective is to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company.

是的，我要告訴你的是帶你回到我們的資本管理戰略，我們的目標是將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

And as you pointed out, we do that through buybacks and dividends.

正如您所指出的，我們通過回購和分紅來做到這一點。

And on a trailing 12-month basis, which is a better way to look at all these things, to give you just a better trend of what's going on, we have returned $7.4 billion of cash and our free cash flow has been $6 billion during that time.

在過去 12 個月的基礎上，這是一種更好的方式來看待所有這些事情，讓你更好地了解正在發生的事情，我們已經返還了 74 億美元的現金，我們的自由現金流在 60 億美元期間那時。

So we've returned 122% of free cash flow during that time, so pretty healthy amount.

所以我們在那段時間返還了 122% 的自由現金流，這是相當健康的數額。

And in the last quarter, we return or we bought back $456 million.

在上個季度，我們返回或回購了 4.56 億美元。

As long as the stock price is below our assessment of intrinsic, we'll be buying back shares, and we did buy back a healthy amount in third quarter.

只要股價低於我們對內在的評估，我們就會回購股票，而且我們在第三季度確實回購了可觀的數量。

Yes, and I'll just add to that.

是的，我會補充一點。

As Rafael said, it's probably best to look at free cash flow metrics on a trailing 12-month basis because there's seasonality.

正如 Rafael 所說，最好查看過去 12 個月的自由現金流量指標，因為存在季節性。

Third and fourth quarter tend to be stronger than first and the second on that.

第三節和第四節往往比第一節和第二節強。

So that usually provides a better insight.

這樣通常可以提供更好的洞察力。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

I wonder if you can give us more color.

我想知道你是否可以給我們更多的顏色。

I mean you've talked about your customers being more cautious, but to what degree do you think that's demand being softer, that's different inventory behavior?

我的意思是你談到你的客戶更加謹慎，但你認為需求疲軟在多大程度上是不同的庫存行為？

And I guess on the flip side, it doesn't seem like you're seeing a lot of inventory accumulation around the tariff activities but just -- could you just generally comment on the state of your customers' inventories as you move to the last quarter?

而且我想在另一方面，您似乎並沒有看到圍繞關稅活動的大量庫存積累，只是 - 當您轉到最後一個時，您能否對客戶的庫存狀況進行一般性評論？四分之一？

Yes, Joe.

是的，喬。

I'll make a comment and if Rafael wants to add something to it, certainly jump in, Rafael.

我會發表評論，如果 Rafael 想添加一些內容，Rafael 一定要加入。

But when we look at inventory in the channel, it was actually down a little bit sequentially, still at about 4.5 weeks of really not changing much overall.

但是當我們查看渠道中的庫存時，它實際上連續下降了一點，仍然在 4.5 週左右，總體上確實沒有太大變化。

We still have about two-thirds of our revenue supported by consignment overall, so we know that inventory remains at zero because of those consignment programs.

我們仍然有大約三分之二的收入是由寄售支持的，所以我們知道由於這些寄售計劃，庫存仍然為零。

So continue to be in a very healthy, healthy state.

所以繼續保持非常健康、健康的狀態。

Now the rest of that, we can't see into our customers' inventories and down channel, so our visibility really ends at that point.

現在剩下的，我們無法看到客戶的庫存和下游渠道，所以我們的能見度真的到那時就結束了。

Rafael?

拉斐爾？

Yes, the only thing I would add, I can sense that you collectively are unsatisfied with our answers, and I understand that.

是的，我唯一要補充的是，我能感覺到你們集體對我們的回答不滿意，我理解這一點。

We have close to 100,000 different customers, and we sell about 100,000 different products.

我們有近 100,000 名不同的客戶，我們銷售大約 100,000 種不同的產品。

It's difficult to pinpoint any one thing, but the sense we get, talking to those customers, getting input from them, from our sales people and all the touchpoints that we have, is that the weakness is broad-based.

很難確定任何一件事，但我們從與這些客戶交談、從他們、我們的銷售人員和我們擁有的所有接觸點那裡得到的感覺是，弱點是廣泛存在的。

It's due to macro events and specifically the trade tensions.

這是由於宏觀事件，特別是貿易緊張局勢。

And if you think about when there's tensions in trade and obstacles to trade, what do businesses do?

如果你想一想當貿易緊張和貿易障礙出現時，企業會做什麼？

They become more cautious, and they pull back.

他們變得更加謹慎，他們退縮了。

And we are at the very end of a long supply chain, and when the ones at the very front pull back, it becomes a traffic jam.

我們處在一條長供應鏈的最末端，當最前面的供應鏈撤回時，就會變成交通擁堵。

And so our sense is that is what's happening in the marketplace.

所以我們的感覺是市場上正在發生的事情。

But we'll see what other companies will report over time and we'll get a clearer picture over the next several weeks and really quarters, because this thing, we've been in it for now four quarters, and it's going to be longer than that.

但隨著時間的推移，我們會看到其他公司會報告什麼，我們會在接下來的幾週甚至幾個季度得到更清晰的畫面，因為這件事，我們已經做了四個季度了，而且會更長比起那個來說。

A follow on, Joe?

跟進，喬？

Yes.

是的。

In terms of the wafer start reduction in the fourth quarter, can you just talk about, I guess normally you've talked about a 70% incremental gross margin in both directions.

就第四季度的晶圓開工減少而言，你能不能談談，我想通常你已經談到了雙向 70% 的增量毛利率。

Anything kind of different as you think about Q4 because of the fact that, the wafer start comment that you made?

您對第 4 季度的看法有何不同，因為您發表的晶圓開始評論？

Yes, actually no, not any different in the, to the larger degree.

是的，實際上沒有，在更大程度上沒有任何不同。

We've talked about 70% to 75% fall through.

我們已經討論過 70% 到 75% 的失敗率。

And that's a guide, it could be a little less, a little more.

這是一個指南，可以少一點，也可以多一點。

So that's probably how you want to think about it on a year-on-year basis for fourth quarter.

所以這可能就是你想在第四季度的同比基礎上考慮它的方式。

We are -- we did lower wafer starts in third quarter, inside of the quarter, and we have -- we are lowering those further into fourth quarter.

我們 - 我們在本季度內的第三季度開始了較低的晶圓啟動，而且我們 - 我們正在將這些進一步降低到第四季度。

And that's a capital allocation decision.

這是一個資本分配決定。

When we do that, we save cash, right?

當我們這樣做時，我們節省了現金，對吧？

And we have, to the largest degree, built the buffer strategy that we had talked about.

我們已經在最大程度上建立了我們所討論的緩衝策略。

So we will save cash as we do that, and that makes sense for the owners of the company.

因此，我們將在這樣做時節省現金，這對公司所有者來說是有意義的。

That's cash that's freed up for other purposes.

那是騰出來用於其他用途的現金。

That does take -- that does hit -- that will hit the GPM line, but it will do so about as expected.

這確實需要——確實達到了——將達到 GPM 線，但它會按預期進行。

So as I say, you've seen a fall-through that we have talked about in the big scheme of things.

所以正如我所說，你已經看到了我們在大計劃中談到的失敗。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

Q4 OpEx is usually down low to mid-singles.

Q4 OpEx 通常下降到中等水平。

I'm just trying to see if that's the right number for December that's in the guidance?

我只是想看看指南中 12 月的數字是否正確？

OpEx, we -- well first, remember the objective of OpEx is to fuel our long-term growth.

OpEx，我們 - 首先，請記住 OpEx 的目標是推動我們的長期增長。

And these are long-term investments that pay off over many, many years, in many cases, decades.

這些都是長期投資，需要很多很多年，在很多情況下，需要幾十年才能得到回報。

So that's how we think about it.

這就是我們的想法。

It's not -- we're -- in this environment, we're cautious and want to be prudent but we're not cutting back on our -- on those long-term investments.

它不是 - 我們 - 在這種環境下，我們很謹慎，想要謹慎，但我們不會削減我們的 - 在這些長期投資上。

On a trailing 12-month basis, OpEx has been running pretty steady at about $3.2 billion for at least a year or so.

在過去 12 個月的基礎上，OpEx 至少在一年左右的時間裡一直穩定在 32 億美元左右。

If you look at the trailing 12-month at the end of every quarter for the last three or four quarters, and it is -- overall it's down about 1% versus a year ago.

如果你看看過去三四個季度每個季度末的過去 12 個月，它是——總體上比一年前下降了約 1%。

But of course, revenue has been dropping more than that, so then as a percent of revenue, it's gone up a little bit.

但當然，收入下降的幅度不止於此，因此作為收入的百分比，它上升了一點。

So now it's at 22%.

所以現在是22%。

And that's well within our expectation, our guide of 20% to 25% for that metric.

這完全符合我們的預期，我們對該指標的指導是 20% 到 25%。

You have a follow up?

你有跟進嗎？

Sure.

當然。

I guess, with respect to the loadings commentary, does it make you rethink the timing on the new 300-millimeter fab?

我想，關於裝載評論，它是否讓您重新考慮新 300 毫米晶圓廠的時機？

If you can give us an update there.

如果你可以在那裡給我們更新。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

So first let me remind you of course when it comes to CapEx, particularly for that fab, it's all about driving long-term revenue growth and extending our manufacturing advantage, including 300-millimeter.

因此，首先讓我提醒您，當然，在資本支出方面，尤其是對於該晶圓廠而言，這一切都是為了推動長期收入增長和擴大我們的製造優勢，包括 300 毫米。

And that is one of our key competitive advantages.

這是我們的主要競爭優勢之一。

We are now in the process of building a parking structure that will be complete in the first half of next year.

我們現在正在建造一個將於明年上半年完工的停車場結構。

Once we build that, that will enable us to build the building for that next 300-millimeter factory.

一旦我們建造了它，這將使我們能夠為下一個 300 毫米工廠建造建築物。

Our plan continues to be to build that building within the next few years.

我們的計劃仍然是在未來幾年內建造這座大樓。

And as a reminder, that will cost $600 million to $700 million over a couple of years as we build that building.

提醒一下，在我們建造這座大樓的過程中，這將在幾年內耗資 6 億至 7 億美元。

And it is $600 million, $700 million, it is a sizable amount, but the big expense comes from the equipment that would follow.

它是 6 億美元、7 億美元，這是一個相當大的數額，但大筆費用來自隨後的設備。

And in fact, an even bigger one would be the opportunity cost of not having that available if there is or when there is growth on the other side of these things.

事實上，更大的機會成本是如果這些東西的另一面有增長或增長時沒有可用的機會成本。

So we think about all of those things.

所以我們考慮了所有這些事情。

And based on that, we -- we've made our -- we'd laid out our plans at the moment.

基於此，我們——我們已經制定了——我們目前已經制定了我們的計劃。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse of Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess I want to revisit comments around China and the potential for pull-ins.

我想我想重新審視有關中國的評論以及拉入的可能性。

If I look back at your June quarter, that business was up about 6% year-on-year where everything else was down 1%.

如果我回顧你的 6 月季度，該業務同比增長約 6%，而其他所有業務均下降 1%。

And so I guess as you look back and you think forward, do you have the sense that, that was in fact pull-ins in the prior quarters, and that's perhaps exacerbating what you're seeing into the December quarter?

所以我想當你回顧過去並展望未來時，你是否感覺到，這實際上是前幾個季度的拉動，這可能會加劇你在 12 月季度看到的情況？

Yes, I think that -- so first, I spent eight years of my career in sales and I like the joke, I never once took a double order or saw a customer do a pull-in, right?

是的，我認為 - 首先，我在銷售行業工作了八年，我喜歡這個笑話，我從來沒有接受過雙重訂單，也沒有看到客戶拉進來，對吧？

But so I certainly wouldn't rule that out as a possibility.

但我當然不會排除這種可能性。

But I think more of what you're seeing there is just seasonality as customers prepare on more the PE products, or our products, are shipped into China than any other region.

但我認為你所看到的更多只是季節性，因為客戶準備將更多的 PE 產品或我們的產品運往中國，而不是其他任何地區。

So that has an effect that's in there as well.

所以這也有影響。

So again, I won't rule that out, but you've got some seasonality that's going on with that.

所以再一次，我不會排除這種可能性，但是你有一些季節性的事情正在發生。

You have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

I do.

我願意。

You talk broad-based weakness, but was hoping perhaps you could narrow in on auto, and give a little more color on what you're seeing there, either geographically or by sub-segment.

你談到了廣泛的弱點，但希望你可以縮小汽車領域的範圍，並為你在那裡看到的東西提供更多的顏色，無論是在地理上還是在細分市場上。

Yes, so we've got five sectors that are inside of that.

是的，所以我們在其中有五個部門。

All the sectors saw weakness.

所有行業都出現疲軟。

I made the comment that if you look at the sectors across industrial and even personal electronics, that most of those sectors were down.

我發表評論說，如果你看一下工業甚至個人電子產品的行業，就會發現這些行業中的大多數都在下跌。

So automotive was no different from that front.

所以汽車與那個領域沒有什麼不同。

And I would say that from a regional standpoint, there's -- we saw weakness across all of the regions.

我要說的是，從地區的角度來看，我們看到了所有地區的疲軟。

So nothing really significant there to spike out.

所以沒有什麼真正重要的東西可以飆升。

Our last question comes from Tore Svanberg of Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg。

Could you maybe talk a little bit about the linearity of the orders?

你能談談訂單的線性嗎？

So obviously, there's been some weakening.

很明顯，有一些削弱。

And I'm just wondering if you already started to see that this summer?

我只是想知道你今年夏天是否已經開始看到了？

Or was it sort of something more that came later in the quarter?

還是在本季度晚些時候出現了更多的東西？

Yes.

是的。

So I would say that it was weak throughout the quarter.

所以我會說整個季度都很疲軟。

It wasn't -- last couple of week or last 30-day phenomenon.

這不是——過去幾週或過去 30 天的現象。

I'd also point out, we've got two-thirds of our revenue on consignment.

我還要指出，我們有三分之二的收入來自寄售。

So in those arrangements, we get the order and ship them instantaneously at the same time.

所以在這些安排中，我們得到訂單並同時立即發貨。

So revenues and orders really reflect each other for the most part.

因此，收入和訂單在很大程度上確實相互反映。

You have a follow-on, Tore?

你有後續嗎，托爾？

Yes.

是的。

I had a follow-on for Rafael.

我有一個拉斐爾的後續。

So you've done a tremendous job on gross margin.

所以你在毛利率方面做得非常出色。

Revenue is down 12% year-over-year, but gross margin only down 90 basis points, and now your inventory days were down as well sequentially.

收入同比下降 12%，但毛利率僅下降 90 個基點，現在您的庫存天數也連續下降。

I know you talked a little bit about factory loadings in Q4.

我知道你在第四季度談到了一些關於工廠負荷的問題。

But do you -- should we think about some sort of inventory days target that you want to run the business at the next few quarters?

但是你 - 我們是否應該考慮你想要在未來幾個季度經營業務的某種庫存天數目標？

So let me -- good question.

那麼讓我——問得好。

Let me first step back and remind you how we think about inventory.

讓我先退後一步，提醒您我們如何看待庫存。

Okay, inventory, the objective there is to maintain high levels of customer service, minimize obsolescence and improve asset utilization.

好的，庫存，目標是保持高水平的客戶服務，最大限度地減少過時並提高資產利用率。

We have a guide of 115 to 145, but those are not concrete barriers, right?

我們有 115 到 145 的指南，但這些不是具體的障礙，對吧？

It's just a guide there.

那裡只是一個嚮導。

We're going to do the right thing for the business, so for example in this situation, in the current environment, even though we have decreased those wafer starts, it is likely that we go above the top of that range.

我們將為業務做正確的事情，因此例如在這種情況下，在當前環境中，即使我們減少了那些晶圓啟動，我們也很可能會超過該範圍的上限。

Or it's at least possible that we do, just because of where the revenue midpoint is.

或者至少我們有可能這樣做，只是因為收入中點在哪裡。

Now we're not going to go drive the wafer starts draconian -- in a draconic way, draconian way, to get to a, just to stay within those guidelines.

現在我們不會去驅動晶圓開始嚴厲 - 以嚴厲的方式，嚴厲的方式，只是為了保持在這些指導方針之內。

That would not make sense in one quarter.

這在四分之一內是沒有意義的。

But over one, two, three quarters, then the idea is to, that guideline just provide an area where we should aim at.

但是在四分之一、二、三季度之後，我們的想法是，該指導方針只是提供了一個我們應該瞄準的領域。

And we can achieve our objectives, the inventory objectives I talked about, while deploying and allocating capital in the best way that benefits the interest of the long-term owners of the company.

我們可以實現我們的目標，即我談到的庫存目標，同時以有利於公司長期所有者利益的最佳方式部署和分配資本。

Okay.

好的。

So with that, let me just finish with a few comments on some key items for you to remember.

因此，讓我以對一些關鍵項目的一些評論結束，供您記住。

We'll remain focused on Analog and Embedded, the best products, and industrial and automotive, the best markets.

我們將繼續專注於最好的模擬和嵌入式產品，以及最好的工業和汽車市場。

Next, we will continue to be disciplined in executing our capital management strategy and remain committed to returning free cash flow to the owners of the company.

接下來，我們將繼續嚴格執行我們的資本管理戰略，並繼續致力於將自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

Lastly, we continue to believe growing free cash flow per share over the long term is why we'll maximize value for the owners of the company.

最後，我們仍然相信，從長遠來看，每股自由現金流的增長是我們為公司所有者實現價值最大化的原因。

Thank you all, for joining us.

謝謝大家加入我們。

A replay of this call is also available on our website.

我們的網站上也提供了此次通話的重播。

Good evening.

晚上好。

This concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。