德州儀器 (TXN) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and welcome to the Texas Instruments Fourth Quarter 2019 and 2019 Year-End Earnings Release Conference Call.

    美好的一天,歡迎來到德州儀器 (TI) 2019 年第四季度和 2019 年年終收益發布電話會議。

  • Today's conference is being recorded.

    今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Dave Pahl.

    此時,我想將會議轉交給 Dave Pahl。

  • Please go ahead, sir.

    請繼續,先生。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and 2019 earnings conference call.

    下午好,感謝您參加我們的第四季度和 2019 年收益電話會議。

  • Rafael Lizardi, TI's chief financial officer, is with me today.

    TI 的首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 今天和我在一起。

  • For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

    對於錯過該版本的任何人,您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

  • This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

    此電話正在網絡上直播,可以通過我們的網站訪問。

  • A replay will be available through the web.

    重播將通過網絡提供。

  • This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

    此電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

  • We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

    我們鼓勵您查看有關今天發布的收益發布中包含的前瞻性陳述的通知,以及 TI 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件,以獲得更完整的描述。

  • First, let me provide some information that's important for your calendars.

    首先,讓我提供一些對您的日曆很重要的信息。

  • We plan to hold a call to review our capital management strategy on February 4 at 10 a.m.

    我們計劃於 2 月 4 日上午 10 點召開電話會議,審查我們的資本管理策略。

  • Central Time.

    中部時間。

  • Similar to what we've done in the past, Rafael and I will provide insight into our strategy.

    與我們過去所做的類似,Rafael 和我將提供對我們戰略的見解。

  • For today's call, let me start by summarizing what Rafael and I will be reviewing.

    對於今天的電話會議,讓我首先總結一下 Rafael 和我將要審查的內容。

  • I'll be covering the following topics: first, a high-level summary of the financial results for the fourth quarter; second, I'll provide some comments about what we're seeing, with added insight by segment and end market, and explain why we would characterize the market as showing signs of stabilizing; and finally, since this is the end of the calendar year, I'll provide a summary of our performance by end market for 2019.

    我將涵蓋以下主題:首先,對第四季度財務業績進行高度總結;其次,我將對我們所看到的情況發表一些評論,並按細分市場和終端市場提供更多見解,並解釋為什麼我們將市場描述為顯示出穩定跡象;最後,由於今年是日曆年的末尾,我將按終端市場總結 2019 年的表現。

  • Rafael will then review profitability, capital management results and then the outlook, after which we'll open the call for Q&A.

    拉斐爾隨後將審查盈利能力、資本管理結果和前景,之後我們將開啟問答環節。

  • Starting with a high-level summary of the fourth quarter financial results.

    從第四季度財務業績的高級摘要開始。

  • Revenue was $3.35 billion, a decrease of 10% from a year ago, and EPS was $1.12 per share, including a 1-cent benefit not in our original guidance.

    收入為 33.5 億美元,比一年前下降 10%,每股收益為 1.12 美元,其中包括我們最初指導中沒有的 1 美分收益。

  • Revenue came in above the midpoint of our guidance, with a relative strength across all markets.

    收入高於我們指導的中點,在所有市場都具有相對優勢。

  • At the company level, our year-on-year decline abated slightly, from 11% in the third quarter, to 10% in the fourth quarter.

    在公司層面,我們的同比降幅略有減弱,從第三季度的 11% 降至第四季度的 10%。

  • While this is only a marginal improvement, all end markets reduced the rate of decline substantially with the exception of communications equipment, where the year-over-year decline increased, about as expected, given the strength in this end market in the year-ago quarter.

    雖然這只是輕微的改善,但除通信設備外,所有終端市場的降幅都大幅降低,考慮到去年該終端市場的強勁勢頭,通信設備的同比降幅有所增加,大致符合預期四分之一。

  • In fourth quarter 2019, Analog revenue declined 5% and Embedded Processing revenue declined 20% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

    2019 年第四季度,模擬收入同比下降 5%,嵌入式處理收入同比下降 20%。

  • Analog's year-on-year rate of decline went from 8% in the third quarter to 5% in the fourth quarter, and Embedded's decline slightly increased from 19% to 20% over the same period.

    Analog的同比降幅從第三季度的8%下降到第四季度的5%,而Embedded的下降幅度同期從19%小幅上升到20%。

  • When we look at the market, since 90 days ago, we moved from the third quarter, where customers were increasingly cautious, to the fourth quarter, where results and behavior throughout the quarter reflected what we believe is best described as demand stabilizing.

    當我們審視市場時,自 90 天前以來,我們從客戶越來越謹慎的第三季度轉移到第四季度,整個季度的結果和行為反映了我們認為最好的描述是需求穩定。

  • Based on history, this would imply that customer and channel inventory that built up during 2017 and '18 would now mostly be depleted.

    根據歷史,這意味著 2017 年和 18 年期間積累的客戶和渠道庫存現在將大部分耗盡。

  • This suggests that demand this year will be more a function of our customers' end demand and, therefore the macro economy, which may continue to be uncertain.

    這表明今年的需求將更多地取決於我們客戶的終端需求,因此宏觀經濟可能會繼續存在不確定性。

  • Moving on, I'll now provide some details on the fourth quarter by segment and end market.

    繼續,我現在將按細分市場和終端市場提供有關第四季度的一些詳細信息。

  • From the year-ago quarter, Analog revenue declined 5% due to declines in Signal Chain, High Volume and Power.

    與去年同期相比,由於信號鏈、大容量和功率的下降,模擬收入下降了 5%。

  • Embedded Processing revenue declined 20% from the year-ago quarter primarily due to Processors.

    嵌入式處理收入同比下降 20%,主要原因是處理器。

  • Connected Microcontrollers also declined.

    聯網微控制器也有所下降。

  • Our Other segment declined 24% from the year-ago quarter.

    我們的其他部門比去年同期下降了 24%。

  • For the year in total, Analog declined 5% and Embedded declined 17%.

    全年總計,模擬下降了 5%,嵌入式下降了 17%。

  • Analog and Embedded combined were 92% of revenue.

    模擬和嵌入式合計佔收入的 92%。

  • From an end market perspective, in the fourth quarter, all markets declined year on year 3% to 4%, with the exception of communications equipment.

    從終端市場來看,第四季度除通信設備外,所有市場同比下降3%至4%。

  • Communications equipment declined about 50% from the year-ago quarter, about as expected, as all major customers, geographies and technologies declined.

    通信設備較上年同期下降約 50%,與預期一致,因為所有主要客戶、地區和技術均出現下滑。

  • Next, as we do at the end of each calendar year, I'll describe our revenue by end market for 2019.

    接下來,就像我們在每個日曆年末所做的那樣,我將按終端市場描述 2019 年的收入。

  • We break this into six categories: industrial; automotive; personal electronics, which includes products such as mobile phones, PCs, tablets and TVs; communications equipment; enterprise systems; and other, which is primarily calculators.

    我們將其分為六類:工業;汽車;個人電子產品,包括手機、個人電腦、平板電腦和電視等產品;通訊設備;企業系統;和其他,主要是計算器。

  • As a percentage of revenue for the year, industrial was 36%; automotive 21%; personal electronics 23%; communications equipment 11%; enterprise systems 6%; and other was 3%.

    工業佔全年收入的百分比為 36%;汽車 21%;個人電子產品 23%;通訊設備 11%;企業系統 6%;其他為3%。

  • Looking at the changes versus 2018, automotive increased by one percentage point, enterprise systems decreased by one percentage point and the remaining markets were unchanged.

    從與 2018 年相比的變化來看,汽車增長了一個百分點,企業系統下降了一個百分點,其餘市場沒有變化。

  • In 2019, industrial and automotive combined made up 57% of TI's revenue, up one percentage point from last year and up from 42% in 2013.

    2019 年,工業和汽車行業合計佔 TI 收入的 57%,比去年增長 1 個百分點,高於 2013 年的 42%。

  • We've established momentum in these markets, and we see great opportunity ahead.

    我們已經在這些市場建立了勢頭,我們看到了巨大的機遇。

  • Next, one of our competitive advantages is diversity and longevity, which can be measured in multiple dimensions.

    接下來,我們的競爭優勢之一是多樣性和持久性,這可以從多個維度來衡量。

  • From a diversity perspective, we have over 100,000 customers and tens of thousands of devices.

    從多樣性的角度來看,我們擁有超過 100,000 名客戶和數万台設備。

  • In 2019, almost two-thirds of our revenue came from customers who bought $100 million or less of our products.

    2019 年,我們近三分之二的收入來自購買了 1 億美元或以下產品的客戶。

  • In 2019, our top 10 devices represented about 5% of our revenue, and the top 100th device was less than 0.1% of our revenue.

    2019 年,我們前 10 名的設備約占我們收入的 5%,前 100 名的設備不到我們收入的 0.1%。

  • From a longevity perspective, over 40% of our revenue came from devices that we've been producing for at least 10 years.

    從壽命的角度來看,我們超過 40% 的收入來自我們生產至少 10 年的設備。

  • Our investments are directed to continue to diversify our growth across products, markets and customers, strengthening this competitive advantage.

    我們的投資旨在繼續實現我們在產品、市場和客戶方面的增長多元化,從而加強這一競爭優勢。

  • Next, we are announcing today that we will be closing our last two six-inch, or 150-millimeter, wafer fabs, which are both more than 50 years old.

    接下來,我們今天宣布,我們將關閉最後兩個 6 英寸或 150 毫米的晶圓廠,它們均已有 50 多年的歷史。

  • This will be a multiyear plan and is expected to be completed no earlier than 2023 and no later than 2025.

    這將是一個多年計劃,預計不早於 2023 年且不遲於 2025 年完成。

  • There are no charges in this quarter's results, and we'll keep you updated as needed in the future.

    本季度的結果不收取任何費用,我們會在未來根據需要及時通知您。

  • Separately, our plans to build our next 300-millimeter factory in Richardson, Texas, are underway, with dirt moving and cranes on site.

    另外,我們計劃在得克薩斯州理查森建造下一個 300 毫米工廠,該工廠正在現場搬運泥土和起重機。

  • We expect the building shell to be complete by the end of 2021 and ready to install tools when needed to meet market demand, which will allow us to continue to support growth and strengthen our manufacturing and technology competitive advantage.

    我們預計建築外殼將於 2021 年底完工,並準備好在需要時安裝工具以滿足市場需求,這將使我們能夠繼續支持增長並加強我們的製造和技術競爭優勢。

  • So to wrap up, we remain focused on Analog and Embedded, the best products.

    因此,總而言之,我們仍然專注於最好的模擬和嵌入式產品。

  • We remain focused on the industrial and automotive markets, the best markets, since they'll be the fastest growing semiconductor markets, as they have increasing semiconductor content and also provide diversity and longevity.

    我們仍然專注於工業和汽車市場,這是最好的市場,因為它們將成為增長最快的半導體市場,因為它們的半導體含量不斷增加,並且還提供多樣性和壽命。

  • All of this translates to a high terminal value of our portfolio.

    所有這些都轉化為我們投資組合的高終值。

  • Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

    Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

  • Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

    Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

  • Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝,戴夫,大家下午好。

  • Gross profit in the quarter was $2.1 billion, or 63% of revenue.

    本季度毛利為 21 億美元,佔收入的 63%。

  • From a year ago, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue.

    與一年前相比,毛利下降的主要原因是收入下降。

  • Gross profit margin decreased 220 basis points.

    毛利率下降220個基點。

  • Operating expenses in the quarter were $798 million, down 2% from a year ago and about as expected.

    本季度的運營費用為 7.98 億美元,同比下降 2%,與預期基本一致。

  • On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 22% of revenue.

    在過去 12 個月的基礎上,運營費用佔收入的 22%。

  • For the year, we have invested $1.5 billion in R&D, an important element of our capital allocation.

    今年,我們在研發方面投資了 15 億美元,這是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。

  • We're pleased with our disciplined process of allocating capital to R&D, which we believe will allow us to continue to grow our top line over the long term.

    我們對將資本分配給研發的嚴格流程感到滿意,我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續增長我們的收入。

  • Acquisition charges, a noncash expense, were $50 million.

    收購費用是一項非現金支出,為 5000 萬美元。

  • Acquisition charges will remain at about $50 million through the third quarter of 2021.

    到 2021 年第三季度,收購費用將保持在 5000 萬美元左右。

  • Operating profit was $1.2 billion, or 37% of revenue.

    營業利潤為 12 億美元,佔收入的 37%。

  • Operating profit was down 18% from the year-ago quarter.

    營業利潤較去年同期下降 18%。

  • Operating margin for Analog was 42%, down from 47% a year ago, and for Embedded Processing was 25%, down from 30% a year ago.

    模擬業務的營業利潤率為 42%,低於一年前的 47%,嵌入式處理業務的營業利潤率為 25%,低於一年前的 30%。

  • Our focused investments on the best sustainable growth opportunities with differentiated positions will enable both businesses to contribute nicely to free cash flow growth over time.

    我們專注於具有差異化定位的最佳可持續增長機會的投資將使兩家公司能夠隨著時間的推移為自由現金流增長做出很好的貢獻。

  • Other income and -- net income in the fourth quarter was $1.1 billion or $1.12 per share, which included a 1-cent benefit for items that were not in our prior outlook, as we have discussed.

    其他收入和——第四季度的淨收入為 11 億美元或每股 1.12 美元,其中包括我們之前討論過的不在我們先前展望中的項目的 1 美分收益。

  • Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

    現在讓我從我們的現金生成開始評論我們的資本管理結果。

  • Cash flow from operations was $1.8 billion in the quarter.

    本季度運營現金流為 18 億美元。

  • Capital expenditures were $163 million in the quarter.

    本季度的資本支出為 1.63 億美元。

  • Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $5.8 billion, down 4% from a year ago.

    過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 58 億美元,比一年前下降 4%。

  • In the quarter, we paid $841 million in dividends, an increase of 17% per share, marking our 16th year of dividend increases.

    本季度,我們支付了 8.41 億美元的股息,每股增長 17%,標誌著我們連續第 16 年增加股息。

  • We repurchased $489 million of our stock for a total return to owners of $1.3 billion.

    我們回購了價值 4.89 億美元的股票,為所有者帶來的總回報為 13 億美元。

  • In total, we have returned $6 billion in the past 12 months, consistent with our strategy to return all free cash flow to our owners.

    在過去的 12 個月裡,我們總共返還了 60 億美元,這與我們將所有自由現金流返還給所有者的戰略是一致的。

  • Over the same period, our dividends represented 52% of free cash flow, underscoring their sustainability.

    同期,我們的股息佔自由現金流的 52%,凸顯了它們的可持續性。

  • Our balance sheet remains strong with $5.4 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the fourth quarter.

    截至第四季度末,我們的資產負債表依然強勁,現金和短期投資達 54 億美元。

  • Total debt was $5.8 billion with a weighted average coupon of 2.99%.

    總債務為 58 億美元,加權平均息票率為 2.99%。

  • Inventory days were 144, down 8 days from a year ago, and up 5 days sequentially.

    庫存天數144天,同比減少8天,環比增加5天。

  • We are pleased with our inventory, and it is positioned to support growth.

    我們對我們的庫存感到滿意,它可以支持增長。

  • Now let's look at some of these results for a year.

    現在讓我們看看其中一些一年的結果。

  • In 2019, cash flow from operations was $6.6 billion.

    2019 年,運營現金流為 66 億美元。

  • Capital expenditures were $847 million, or 6% of revenue.

    資本支出為 8.47 億美元,佔收入的 6%。

  • Free cash flow for 2019 was $5.8 billion, or 40% of revenue.

    2019 年的自由現金流為 58 億美元,佔收入的 40%。

  • Our cash flow reflects the strength of our business model.

    我們的現金流反映了我們商業模式的實力。

  • As we have said, we believe free cash flow growth, especially on a per-share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term and will be valued only if it is productively invested in the business or returned to shareholders.

    正如我們所說,我們認為自由現金流的增長,尤其是每股增長,對於實現股東價值的長期最大化最為重要,並且只有在對業務進行富有成效的投資或回報給股東時才會有價值。

  • We remain committed to return all free cash flow to owners.

    我們仍然致力於將所有自由現金流返還給所有者。

  • Over the last 12 months, we paid $3 billion in dividends and purchased $3 billion of our own shares, reducing outstanding share count by 1.4% in 2019 and by 46% since the end of 2004, when we initiated a program designed to reduce our share count.

    在過去的 12 個月裡,我們支付了 30 億美元的股息併購買了 30 億美元的我們自己的股票,2019 年流通股數量減少了 1.4%,自 2004 年底以來減少了 46%,當時我們啟動了一項旨在減少我們的股份的計劃數數。

  • Turning to our outlook for the first quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.12 billion to $3.38 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $0.96 to $1.14, which includes an estimated $20 million discrete tax benefit.

    談到我們對第一季度的展望,我們預計 TI 收入在 31.2 億美元至 33.8 億美元之間,每股收益在 0.96 美元至 1.14 美元之間,其中包括估計 2000 萬美元的離散稅收優惠。

  • We continue to expect our 2020 annual operating tax rate to be about 15%.

    我們繼續預計我們 2020 年的年度營業稅率約為 15%。

  • As usual, details of our expectations for taxes can be found on our IR website under Financial Summary Data.

    與往常一樣,可以在我們的 IR 網站的“財務摘要數據”下找到我們對稅收預期的詳細信息。

  • In closing, as Dave mentioned, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term.

    最後,正如 Dave 提到的,我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。

  • We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, portfolio breadth, market reach, and diverse and long-lived products.

    我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢,即製造和技術、產品組合廣度、市場範圍以及多樣化和長壽命的產品。

  • We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best products, Analog and Embedded Processing, and the best markets, industrial and automotive, which we believe will enable us to continue to improve and deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

    我們將通過嚴格的資本配置和專注於最好的產品、模擬和嵌入式處理以及最好的工業和汽車市場來繼續加強這些優勢,我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續改善並提供每股自由現金流長期增長。

  • With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

    有了這個,讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Thanks, Rafael.

    謝謝,拉斐爾。

  • Operator, you can now open the lines for questions.

    接線員,您現在可以打開問題線路。

  • (Operator Instructions) Operator?

    (操作員說明)操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

    (操作員說明)我們將與 Crédit Suisse 一起接受 John Pitzer 的第一個問題。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Congratulations on the solid results.

    祝賀你取得了不錯的成績。

  • I guess, Dave and Rafael, just relative to the March quarter guidance, at the midpoint, you're guiding down about 3% sequentially, which is in line with kind of historic seasonality for the March quarter.

    我猜,Dave 和 Rafael,相對於 3 月季度的指導,在中點,你的指導順序下降了約 3%,這與 3 月季度的歷史季節性一致。

  • But typically, off the bottom of the cycle, you can get some above seasonal.

    但通常情況下,在周期的底部,你可以獲得一些高於季節性的。

  • And at the midpoint, the year-over-year is just modestly getting better from December to March.

    從中點來看,從 12 月到 3 月,同比略有好轉。

  • So I'm just wondering what -- if there's anything specific in the March quarter as to why it's not a little bit better than seasonal, and specifically, anything around distribution strategy that might be a headwind in Q1.

    所以我只是想知道 - 如果在 3 月季度有什麼具體說明為什麼它不比季節性好一點,特別是關於分銷策略的任何事情可能會成為第一季度的不利因素。

  • And then I have a follow-up.

    然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Yes, John, I'll take that, and Rafael can add if he'd like.

    是的,John,我接受,如果 Rafael 願意,可以添加。

  • I think -- so to answer the last part of that question, there's nothing in the sequential guidance that would suggest there's any headwinds from distribution.

    我認為——所以為了回答這個問題的最後一部分,順序指南中沒有任何內容表明分銷有任何不利因素。

  • We've talked about before that we would expect as we make the transition in distribution, it will look similar from a revenue headwind as we've seen with consignment.

    我們之前已經討論過,我們期望在進行分銷轉型時,從收入逆風來看,它看起來與我們在寄售中看到的相似。

  • So there will be some there, but we've already got some of the headwinds from the transitions that we've made in consignment.

    所以那裡會有一些,但我們已經從我們在寄售中所做的轉變中得到了一些逆風。

  • And I think the second part is as we're seeing those signs of stabilization, we talked about that history would suggest that the growth is going to reflect the end demand of the customers and, therefore, the macroeconomy.

    我認為第二部分是當我們看到這些穩定跡象時,我們談到歷史表明增長將反映客戶的最終需求,因此反映宏觀經濟。

  • So as we go through the year, that's what will be the driving force overall.

    因此,在我們度過這一年時,這將成為整體的驅動力。

  • Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

    Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • The only other thing I would add is, as Dave mentioned during the prepared remarks, our comms equipment was down year on year significantly as there was a tough compare a year ago.

    我要補充的唯一一件事是,正如戴夫在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我們的通訊設備同比大幅下降,因為一年前的情況比較艱難。

  • Well, 1Q '20 is going to have an even tougher compare on comms equipment.

    好吧,20 年第一季度將對通信設備進行更嚴格的比較。

  • You may recall what was going on in 1Q '19 on that front.

    您可能還記得 19 年第一季度在這方面發生的事情。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Was growing pretty significantly year on year.

    同比增長相當顯著。

  • Okay, John, do you have a follow-on?

    好的,約翰,你有後續嗎?

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And then my second question is just around the Embedded business.

    然後我的第二個問題是關於嵌入式業務的。

  • I know that the SIA MCU data is not necessarily the best proxy for that business.

    我知道 SIA MCU 數據不一定是該業務的最佳代理。

  • But when you kind of compare your results to that data, up until this most recent correction, you guys were sort of consistently outgrowing the SIA MCU data.

    但是,當您將結果與該數據進行比較時,直到最近的更正之前,你們一直在增長 SIA MCU 數據。

  • Your Embedded business has now gone through five or six quarters of kind of undergrowing.

    您的嵌入式業務現在已經經歷了五六個季度的增長不足。

  • And I'm just wondering if you could help us talk through maybe potential share loss.

    我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們討論潛在的份額損失。

  • And I know you talked about CPU specifically being weak within Embedded; is that specific to an end market like comms?

    我知道你談到了 CPU 在嵌入式中特別薄弱;這是否特定於像通訊這樣的終端市場?

  • Or how do we think about that?

    或者我們如何看待它?

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So first, John, I think you're putting in a good context.

    首先,約翰,我認為你的背景很好。

  • And as you've stated, we believe share changes just need to be judged over long periods of time.

    正如您所說,我們認為份額變化只需要在很長一段時間內進行判斷。

  • And so if you look at the revenue performance of Embedded over the last several years, we've had that significant outperformance, as you pointed out, in '17 and '18.

    因此,如果你看看過去幾年嵌入式的收入表現,正如你所指出的那樣,我們在 17 年和 18 年的表現非常出色。

  • Last year, we probably gave some of that back.

    去年,我們可能回饋了其中的一部分。

  • So I just point out that in the most recent quarter, at the TI level, so Analog and Embedded, we saw that -- those signs of stabilization but -- in every market, so behaving similarly except communications equipment.

    所以我只是指出,在最近一個季度,在 TI 層面,模擬和嵌入式,我們看到了——那些穩定的跡象——在每個市場中,除了通信設備外,表現相似。

  • So thank you, John.

    所以謝謝你,約翰。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Ross Seymore of Deutsche Bank.

    我們將從德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore 那裡回答下一個問題。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Trying to get to the trajectory and maybe the stabilization in turn.

    試圖依次進入軌跡和穩定。

  • Dave, I know you said it was pretty broad-based on how you upsided the fourth quarter of last year.

    戴夫,我知道你說過,根據你去年第四季度的表現,這是相當廣泛的。

  • But can you give us what the sequential changes were by the end markets?

    但是你能告訴我們終端市場的連續變化是什麼嗎?

  • I know you gave the year-over-year specifically, but if you could give that for the fourth quarter, that would be helpful.

    我知道你具體給出了同比數據,但如果你能給出第四季度的數據,那會很有幫助。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Yes, certainly, Ross.

    是的,當然,羅斯。

  • So these are all sequential compares.

    所以這些都是順序比較。

  • Industrial declined mid-single digits.

    工業下降了中個位數。

  • Automotive was about even.

    汽車幾乎持平。

  • Personal electronics declined high-single digits.

    個人電子產品下降了高個位數。

  • Comms equipment declined about 20%.

    通信設備下降了約 20%。

  • And enterprise systems grew in the low-single digits.

    企業系統以低個位數增長。

  • Do you have a follow-on, Ross?

    羅斯,你有後續嗎?

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I just wanted to think about the -- you talked about shutting down the two 6-inch fabs.

    我只是想考慮 - 你談到關閉兩個 6 英寸晶圓廠。

  • You told us about starting up the 300 millimeter.

    您告訴我們要啟動 300 毫米。

  • So maybe a 2-parter, if I may.

    如果可以的話,也許是 2 人。

  • Can you talk about the utilization plans in the first quarter?

    能否談談一季度的使用計劃?

  • And how do we think about CapEx?

    我們如何看待資本支出?

  • I know you said you're moving dirt and you have cranes there, but out of that $600 million or $700 million cost that you said for the new 300-millimeter fab, how does that fold in, in 2020?

    我知道你說你在搬土,那裡有起重機,但在你所說的新 300 毫米晶圓廠的 6 億美元或 7 億美元成本中,2020 年如何計算?

  • Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

    Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So Ross, you asked a bunch of questions there.

    羅斯,你在那裡問了很多問題。

  • Let me try.

    讓我嘗試。

  • I'll answer the ones I remember.

    我會回答我記得的那些。

  • So first, let me emphasize, yes, we're closing two -- our two fabs that still have some 150-millimeter equipment.

    所以首先,讓我強調,是的,我們正在關閉兩個 - 我們的兩個晶圓廠仍然有一些 150 毫米的設備。

  • And they're over 50 years old, and they'll be closed by as early as 2023 or as late as 2025, somewhere in that time frame.

    而且它們已經超過 50 歲了,它們最早會在 2023 年或最晚在 2025 年關閉,在那個時間範圍內的某個時間。

  • We have about $1.5 billion of revenue that run through those factories.

    我們有大約 15 億美元的收入來自這些工廠。

  • And of course, we're moving most of that revenue, virtually all, to 300 millimeter, so a significant cost advantage, as we have talked about over the years.

    當然,我們正在將大部分收入,幾乎所有收入轉移到 300 毫米,這是一個顯著的成本優勢,正如我們多年來所討論的那樣。

  • The new factory, so let me talk about the new factory.

    新廠,那我就說說新廠吧。

  • Yes, we've got dirt moving, cranes are there, plans are underway.

    是的,我們已經搬土了,起重機在那裡,計劃正在進行中。

  • We should have the building finished by the end of 2021.

    我們應該在 2021 年底之前完成這座建築。

  • And at that point, we can put equipment as needed to support demand.

    到那時,我們可以根據需要放置設備來支持需求。

  • From a CapEx standpoint, you want to model that at 6% of revenue.

    從資本支出的角度來看,您希望將其建模為收入的 6%。

  • We just finished 2019 with CapEx at 6% of revenue, and you should model that going forward at about that same level.

    我們剛剛結束了 2019 年,資本支出佔收入的 6%,你應該在大約相同的水平上對未來進行建模。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you, Ross.

    謝謝你,羅斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Chris Danley, Citigroup.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Danley。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD

  • I'm going to put the hindsight as 2020 theory to the test here.

    我將在這裡檢驗 2020 年理論的後見之明。

  • So now that we've kind of gone through this dip and recovery, maybe just talk about why you think your sales and bookings fell off so sharply in late summer.

    因此,既然我們已經經歷了這種下降和復蘇,也許只是談談為什麼您認為您的銷售額和預訂量在夏末急劇下降。

  • And then what's -- why are the customers a little more, I guess, a little more optimistic right now?

    然後是什麼——我猜,為什麼客戶現在更樂觀了一點?

  • And then do you feel better about your business now versus, let's call it, 6 months ago over the summer?

    然後,與 6 個月前的夏天相比,您現在對您的業務感覺更好嗎?

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Well, I'll start off, and Rafael, if you want to add anything.

    好吧,我要開始了,Rafael,如果你想補充什麼的話。

  • I think as we go through any cycle, they're all similar in a lot of ways and different in others.

    我認為當我們經歷任何週期時,它們在很多方面都是相似的,而在其他方面又有所不同。

  • And to put it in context, you'd have to go back to third quarter of '18.

    為了把它放在上下文中,你必須回到 18 年的第三季度。

  • Running up to that, we had 10 quarters of year-on-year growth.

    在此之前,我們有 10 個季度同比增長。

  • So you never know as you're going through that are you going to have 10 or 12 or 14 quarters of year-on-year growth, but you expect at some point that the industry would run below.

    所以你永遠不知道你正在經歷的是你將有 10 或 12 或 14 個季度的同比增長,但你預計在某個時候該行業會低於預期。

  • And so as we started that, we thought we were -- what we were seeing was mostly an inventory -- industry, rather, correction as we're working through that.

    因此,當我們開始這樣做時,我們認為我們是——我們看到的主要是庫存——行業,而不是我們正在努力解決的問題。

  • Certainly, trade tensions probably elongated that cycle and part of the reason why we saw that other leg down later last year.

    當然,貿易緊張局勢可能延長了該週期,這也是我們去年晚些時候看到另一條腿下跌的部分原因。

  • And so -- and can you remind me the second part -- oh, do we feel better about the business.

    所以 - 你能提醒我第二部分嗎 - 哦,我們對業務感覺更好嗎?

  • I think that strategically we felt that we continue to stay focused on improving our four competitive advantages.

    我認為從戰略上講,我們認為我們將繼續專注於提高我們的四個競爭優勢。

  • We haven't slowed down investments, and we talk about RFAB's underway.

    我們沒有放慢投資,我們談論 RFAB 正在進行中。

  • If you look at the OpEx investments that we have made, those have stayed steady, focused on areas of diversifying our growth in industrial and automotive.

    如果你看看我們所做的運營支出投資,這些投資一直保持穩定,專注於使我們在工業和汽車領域實現增長多元化的領域。

  • So I think we feel just as good today as we did about the business.

    所以我認為我們今天感覺和我們對業務的感覺一樣好。

  • The cycles will come and go.

    週期會來來去去。

  • Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

    Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I would just add, as Dave mentioned, strategically we are well positioned, have been, that hasn't changed.

    正如戴夫提到的,我只想補充一點,從戰略上講,我們處於有利地位,一直以來,這並沒有改變。

  • So we continue to feel as good as ever on that front.

    因此,我們在這方面的感覺一如既往地好。

  • And then operationally, we just -- we've got to be ready for whatever the market throws at us.

    然後在運營上,我們只是 - 我們必須為市場拋給我們的任何事情做好準備。

  • So if this was -- is going to last longer, we've got to be ready for that, if things are going to head south, but we also got to be ready if things turn around, and then we're going to start seeing year-on-year growth.

    因此,如果這 - 會持續更長時間,我們必須為此做好準備,如果事情向南發展,但如果事情好轉,我們也必須做好準備,然後我們將開始看到同比增長。

  • So -- and our business model allows us to do that, and we're well positioned for it.

    所以——我們的商業模式允許我們這樣做,而且我們已經做好了準備。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Do you have a follow-on, Chris?

    你有後續嗎,克里斯?

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Just a longer-term question on the Embedded Processing business.

    只是一個關於嵌入式處理業務的長期問題。

  • So if you look at the last couple of years, it has materially undergrown the overall business, and we're still running it, I think it's about 10% lower margins than the corporate average.

    因此,如果你看看過去幾年,它在很大程度上阻礙了整體業務的發展,而我們仍在運營它,我認為它的利潤率比公司平均水平低約 10%。

  • So what are you guys thinking about?

    那麼你們在想什麼?

  • What should we be thinking about sort of the long-term goals or aspirations for the Embedded business just in terms of relative revenue growth or profits?

    就相對收入增長或利潤而言,我們應該如何考慮嵌入式業務的長期目標或願望?

  • Do we expect it to improve or not improve?

    我們期望它改善還是不改善?

  • And if it's not going to improve, is there anything you could do to change that?

    如果它不會改善,你能做些什麼來改變它嗎?

  • Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

    Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I'll give you a few comments on that.

    我會給你一些意見。

  • As far as expectations, you mentioned margin.

    就預期而言,您提到了保證金。

  • Frankly, that's not -- Embedded is lower margin than Analog, but that is a nonissue.

    坦率地說,這不是——嵌入式的利潤率低於模擬,但這不是問題。

  • As long as their -- Embedded contributes to free cash flow growth, that's the measure in stake.

    只要他們的 - Embedded 有助於自由現金流的增長,這就是衡量標準。

  • Obviously, the top line has gone through some challenges here that Dave talked about earlier.

    顯然,頂線在這裡經歷了戴夫之前談到的一些挑戰。

  • But longer term, with their focus on auto and industrial, in all of our businesses, but that includes Embedded, we feel confident that, that business will grow longer term.

    但從長遠來看,他們專注於汽車和工業,在我們所有的業務中,包括嵌入式,我們相信,該業務將長期增長。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you, Chris.

    謝謝你,克里斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

    我們將從高盛的 Toshiya Hari 那裡回答下一個問題。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • I was hoping to better understand what you're seeing in the comms business.

    我希望能更好地了解您在通信業務中看到的內容。

  • I appreciate the year-ago quarter was a high compare, but the business was down 50%, as Dave you noted.

    我很欣賞去年同期是一個高比較,但業務下降了 50%,正如戴夫所說。

  • Curious how big Huawei was as a percentage of that decline in Q4.

    好奇華為在第四季度下降的百分比中有多大。

  • And more importantly, how are you guys thinking about the trajectory for this business into 2020?

    更重要的是,你們如何看待這項業務到 2020 年的發展軌跡?

  • And then I have a follow-up.

    然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So Huawei last year was 3% to 4% of our revenue.

    所以華為去年占我們收入的 3% 到 4%。

  • That's really unchanged from what it was the prior year.

    這與去年相比確實沒有變化。

  • And I think if you look at comms equipment overall, if you'll just look at the shape of the growth curve, you had the year kind of balanced with strong growth in the first part and followed by very weak growth in the second half.

    而且我認為,如果你從整體上看通信設備,如果你只看增長曲線的形狀,你會發現今年上半年增長強勁,下半年增長非常疲軟。

  • So the way that it's behaving, I don't think is -- well, it isn't a surprise to us.

    所以它的行為方式,我不認為 - 好吧,這對我們來說並不奇怪。

  • As we were going through that very strong growth, we tried to remind everyone at the time that, that market is a market that's just choppy.

    當我們經歷非常強勁的增長時,我們當時試圖提醒大家,那個市場是一個波動的市場。

  • And it's that way primarily in early phases of technology deployment.

    這主要是在技術部署的早期階段。

  • I think longer term, as we've talked about on our capital management presentation, we don't believe that, that will be a growth driver for us or for the industry, and that's just based on the number of subscribers that are out in the market and what the capital spending by operators will be longer term.

    我認為從長遠來看,正如我們在資本管理演示中所談到的那樣,我們認為這不會成為我們或行業的增長動力,而這只是基於訂閱者的數量。市場和運營商的資本支出將是長期的。

  • So we really think that growth in our industry will be driven by industrial and automotive, and hence, why we've biased our investments into those areas.

    因此,我們真的認為我們行業的增長將由工業和汽車驅動,因此,我們將投資偏向於這些領域。

  • Do you have a follow-on?

    你有後續嗎?

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • Yes, great.

    對,很好。

  • And sort of related to that, Dave, it was encouraging to see R&D intensity or R&D as a percentage of sales pick up in 2019 versus 2018.

    與此相關的是,戴夫,看到研發強度或研發佔銷售額的百分比在 2019 年與 2018 年相比有所上升,這令人鼓舞。

  • I mean it had felt like R&D was in decline for a number of years, so it was good to see that pick up.

    我的意思是感覺研發多年來一直在下降,所以很高興看到這種回升。

  • Can you remind us which product areas, technologies, end markets that you guys are focused on?

    你能提醒我們你們專注於哪些產品領域、技術和終端市場嗎?

  • I realize it's going to be industrial and automotive, but if you can give a little bit more color within those two end markets, that would be helpful.

    我意識到這將是工業和汽車領域,但如果你能在這兩個終端市場中提供更多色彩,那將會有所幫助。

  • Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

    Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

  • So of course, from an end market standpoint, as you said, is industrial, automotive, that's where we're focusing.

    因此,當然,從終端市場的角度來看,正如您所說,工業、汽車是我們關注的領域。

  • From a product standpoint is Embedded and Analog.

    從產品的角度來看是嵌入式和模擬。

  • But of course, inside of that, there's a bunch of pieces.

    但當然,在裡面,有一堆碎片。

  • So I'll mention a few.

    所以我會提到一些。

  • But I mean, at the highest level is -- in the case of Analog is Signal Chain and Power.

    但我的意思是,最高級別是——在模擬的情況下是信號鍊和電源。

  • Those are by far the biggest areas.

    這些是迄今為止最大的領域。

  • But -- and underneath that, there's just a bunch of things.

    但是——在那之下,只有一堆東西。

  • There's the -- within Power, there's all kinds of power categories and then within Signal Chain.

    在 Power 中,有各種電源類別,然後在 Signal Chain 中。

  • But Dave, do you want to add something?

    但是戴夫,你想補充點什麼嗎?

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I'll just say when we think of allocating capital to R&D, there's really three major buckets.

    我只想說,當我們考慮將資金分配給研發時,實際上有三個主要部分。

  • And the largest bucket is -- goes directly to product -- creation of new products.

    最大的桶是——直接進入產品——新產品的創造。

  • We release 300 to 400 new products a year.

    我們每年發布 300 到 400 種新產品。

  • The other two is kind of a shared, centralized R&D function that develops our process technologies, packaging, tools that our engineers use like SPICE models and those types of things.

    另外兩個是共享的、集中的研發功能,開發我們的工藝技術、封裝、我們的工程師使用的工具,如 SPICE 模型和那些類型的東西。

  • And then the third category is Kilby Labs where longer term, higher risk investments are made -- new materials, new markets and those types of things.

    然後第三類是 Kilby Labs,在那裡進行更長期、更高風險的投資——新材料、新市場和那些類型的東西。

  • So that's where the R&D has been directed.

    這就是研發的方向。

  • I describe R&D last year as steady and stable.

    我將去年的研發描述為穩定和穩定。

  • And I think that even in a down market, keeping those investments stable, keeping focused on investing in our four competitive advantages is really important overall.

    而且我認為,即使在低迷的市場中,保持這些投資穩定,繼續專注於投資我們的四個競爭優勢,總體而言非常重要。

  • So thank you, Toshi.

    所以謝謝你,Toshi。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

    我們將從摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 那裡回答下一個問題。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Looks like the year-over-year declines have improved quite a bit in auto and industrial, moving from down high-single digits year-over-year to down low-single digits going from September to December.

    看起來汽車和工業的同比降幅有所改善,從 9 月到 12 月的同比降幅從高個位數下降到低個位數。

  • Of the 18 subsegments within these two end markets or by geography, where do you guys see signs of improvement?

    在這兩個終端市場或按地理位置劃分的 18 個細分市場中,你們在哪裡看到改善的跡象?

  • Or was it pretty broad-based?

    或者它的基礎非常廣泛?

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So it is the latter.

    所以是後者。

  • It was very broad-based, which I think continues to be encouraging on that front.

    它的基礎非常廣泛,我認為這在這方面繼續令人鼓舞。

  • And again, just given the diversity of our customers as well as the diversity -- the intentional diversity of our investments to have that growth be broad-based, it's good to see that that's the way the business is performing.

    再一次,考慮到我們客戶的多樣性以及多樣性——我們的投資有意多樣化以實現廣泛的增長,很高興看到這就是企業的表現方式。

  • Do you have a follow-up?

    你有跟進嗎?

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Yes, absolutely.

    是的,一點沒錯。

  • As you guys mentioned, looks like the team is now shipping to consumption.

    正如你們所提到的,看起來團隊現在正在運送到消費者。

  • The guidance for this quarter is for a seasonal decline.

    本季度的指導是季節性下降。

  • But given that Q2 and Q3 are typically seasonally stronger quarters, do you guys anticipate increasing factory loadings here in the March quarter?

    但鑑於第二季度和第三季度通常是季節性較強的季度,你們是否預計三月季度這裡的工廠負荷會增加?

  • Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

    Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

  • We only talk about utilization and factory loadings when there's significant inflection points.

    我們只在出現重大拐點時才談論利用率和工廠負荷。

  • And in this particular comparison, fourth to first, we don't expect a significant inflection point.

    在這個特定的比較中,從第四到第一,我們預計不會出現重大拐點。

  • So we're not talking about it.

    所以我們不是在談論它。

  • Of course, wafer load utilization is always a function of what we expect for future growth.

    當然,晶圓負載利用率始終是我們對未來增長預期的函數。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And we'll vary those based on order patterns and as we see demand come in from customers.

    我們將根據訂單模式和我們看到來自客戶的需求來改變這些。

  • So thank you, Harlan.

    所以謝謝你,哈倫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Ambrish Srivastava of Bank of Montreal.

    我們將從蒙特利爾銀行的 Ambrish Srivastava 那裡回答下一個問題。

  • Ambrish Srivastava - MD of Semiconductor Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Ambrish Srivastava - MD of Semiconductor Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to peel back the comments on stabilization.

    我只是想收回關於穩定性的評論。

  • Both these businesses, industrials and autos and specifically, industrials, I forget, but I think there's still 13 subsegments.

    這些業務,工業和汽車,具體來說,工業,我忘記了,但我認為還有 13 個子部分。

  • So when you talk about stabilization, I'm assuming -- well, you never had any channel inventory buildup.

    因此,當你談論穩定時,我假設——好吧,你從來沒有任何渠道庫存積累。

  • Your channel inventory was pretty normal through the cycle and your lead times never extended out.

    您的渠道庫存在整個週期中都非常正常,而且您的交貨時間從未延長。

  • So can you just help us understand a little bit what's the source of stabilization?

    那麼您能否幫助我們了解一下穩定的來源是什麼?

  • Is it -- it can't be the channel.

    是嗎——它不可能是頻道。

  • So it's the end customer, but then you have thousands of end customers.

    所以它是最終客戶,但是你有成千上萬的最終客戶。

  • So what's the right way to think to get comfort that you are seeing stabilization in that business specifically?

    那麼,什麼是正確的思考方式才能讓您看到該業務具體穩定下來呢?

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Well, Ambrish, yes, so it's reflected in the -- stabilization is reflected in the order patterns, the demands that we see through consignment and actually the results themselves.

    好吧,Ambrish,是的,所以它反映在 - 穩定性反映在訂單模式中,我們通過寄售看到的需求以及實際結果本身。

  • So we went from third quarter where those markets were declining high-single digits, 8%, 9%, some of them at 10%, to where all those markets were declining at 3%, 4%.

    因此,我們從第三季度開始,這些市場以高個位數下降,8%、9%,其中一些市場下降了 10%,而所有這些市場都下降了 3%、4%。

  • So in those numbers, it suggests that there's a bottoming process.

    因此,在這些數字中,這表明存在觸底過程。

  • And even though we're holding -- in consignment programs, we're holding that inventory on our balance sheet, certainly, our customers have inventory of their products and then they have inventories that are down their channels.

    即使我們持有 - 在寄售計劃中,我們將庫存保留在我們的資產負債表上,當然,我們的客戶有他們的產品庫存,然後他們有庫存在他們的渠道中。

  • So just as the bullwhip effect would suggest that you have a small change in demand as that moves its way back, that magnifies.

    因此,就像牛鞭效應表明需求發生微小變化一樣,隨著它向後移動,它會放大。

  • So we can see the results of that beginning to abate.

    所以我們可以看到開始減弱的結果。

  • Do you have a follow-on?

    你有後續嗎?

  • Ambrish Srivastava - MD of Semiconductor Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Ambrish Srivastava - MD of Semiconductor Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • I did.

    我做到了。

  • Free cash flow margin.

    自由現金流保證金。

  • So you guys have powered through the 25%, 35% range you had given a couple of years ago.

    所以你們已經突破了幾年前給出的 25%、35% 的範圍。

  • And you just had 40% in revenues down, not getting the math right, but somewhere in the high-single digit, and free cash flow is down 4%.

    你的收入剛剛下降了 40%,這不是正確的數學計算,而是處於高個位數的某個位置,自由現金流下降了 4%。

  • So would it be fair to assume that the targets should be moved up when we hear you talk about capital allocation in a couple of weeks from now?

    那麼,當我們聽到您在幾週後談論資本配置時,假設應該提高目標是否公平?

  • Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

    Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

  • So let me take that.

    所以讓我接受吧。

  • So thanks for the cue on that.

    所以感謝你的提示。

  • So we do have the capital management call coming on February 4. So I expect all of you to sign up for that and join us there.

    所以我們確實在 2 月 4 日召開了資本管理電話會議。所以我希望你們所有人都報名參加並加入我們。

  • And we will talk about the various objectives there.

    我們將在那裡討論各種目標。

  • But I'll give you a preview.

    但我會給你一個預覽。

  • We're not changing those objectives and specifically, that one that you talked about, we're not.

    我們不會改變這些目標,特別是您談到的那個目標,我們不會。

  • And the reason for that, yes, we just finished a 40% free cash flow as a percent of revenue, but the focus is not that percent, right?

    原因是,是的,我們剛剛完成了 40% 的自由現金流佔收入的百分比,但重點不是那個百分比,對吧?

  • The way we maximize value for the owners of the company is growing their free cash flow per share for a long time to come.

    我們為公司所有者實現價值最大化的方式是在未來很長一段時間內增加他們的每股自由現金流。

  • So we focus on that, and that's how we drive value.

    所以我們專注於此,這就是我們推動價值的方式。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you, Ambrish.

    謝謝你,安布里什。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Tore Svanberg of Stifel.

    我們將接受來自 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg 的下一個問題。

  • Tore Egil Svanberg - MD

    Tore Egil Svanberg - MD

  • First of all, coming back to the sort of recovery question, I mean, stabilization and eventual recovery.

    首先,回到復蘇問題,我的意思是穩定和最終復甦。

  • Are you starting to see backlog further out now?

    您現在是否開始看到更遠的積壓?

  • Or do you think it's kind of more just in time and kind of just waiting for how macro unfolds throughout the year?

    還是您認為它更及時,只是等待宏觀全年如何展開?

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Yes, Tore.

    是的,托爾。

  • Now just for those that aren't as familiar with us, I'll just remind everyone or just point out that two-thirds of our revenues are supported by consignment where we actually don't carry backlog but we do get demand forecast.

    現在,對於那些不熟悉我們的人,我只想提醒大家或只是指出我們三分之二的收入是由寄售支持的,我們實際上沒有積壓訂單,但我們確實得到了需求預測。

  • And most of the time, that's at least six months of demand that we can see.

    大多數時候,我們至少可以看到六個月的需求。

  • So -- and then there's no inventory.

    所以——然後就沒有庫存了。

  • As Ambrish was pointing out in his earlier call, there's no inventory between us and those manufacturing lines for those customers.

    正如 Ambrish 在他早些時候的電話中指出的那樣,我們與這些客戶的生產線之間沒有庫存。

  • So that's actually the strongest signal that we will get when we're looking at future demand.

    所以這實際上是我們在考慮未來需求時會得到的最強烈信號。

  • But certainly, the backlog pays -- plays a part of that.

    但可以肯定的是,積壓是有回報的——這是其中的一部分。

  • So I'd just say that, in general, that it's consistent with the outlook that we have.

    所以我只想說,總的來說,這與我們的前景是一致的。

  • And our lead times haven't changed -- it hasn't really changed at all.

    我們的交貨時間沒有改變——它根本沒有真正改變。

  • So they have remained stable.

    所以他們一直保持穩定。

  • So that allows customers to have confidence that they can get product when they need it.

    這樣一來,客戶就可以放心,他們可以在需要時獲得產品。

  • So do you have a follow-on?

    那你有後續嗎?

  • Tore Egil Svanberg - MD

    Tore Egil Svanberg - MD

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • And I apologize for ending on this topic, but there's a lot of concerns about China insourcing, including Analog and Embedded Processing.

    我很抱歉結束這個話題,但人們對中國內包有很多擔憂,包括模擬和嵌入式處理。

  • I was just wondering what the company's strategy is on that topic.

    我只是想知道公司在該主題上的戰略是什麼。

  • I mean is it -- is sort of life is normal?

    我的意思是——生活有點正常嗎?

  • Or do you actually have a long-term strategy as it relates to that particular topic?

    還是您實際上有與該特定主題相關的長期策略?

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I'll start and if Rafael wants to add anything.

    我會開始,如果 Rafael 想添加任何內容。

  • And certainly, as we worked through the year with the trade tensions and as that has unfolded, we've certainly heard discussions at Chinese customers, them wanting to ensure that they've got alternatives.

    當然,在我們處理貿易緊張局勢的一年中,隨著貿易緊張局勢的展開,我們當然聽到了中國客戶的討論,他們希望確保他們有其他選擇。

  • But in the end, our customers are just very pragmatic, and they're looking for components with the highest performance, the lowest cost, the most dependable delivery.

    但最終,我們的客戶非常務實,他們正在尋找性能最高、成本最低、交付最可靠的組件。

  • And those are all areas that we're very, very strong competitively in.

    這些都是我們在競爭中非常非常強大的領域。

  • So -- okay.

    所以——好吧。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Rafael to wrap things up.

    有了這個,我會把它交給 Rafael 來完成。

  • Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

    Rafael R. Lizardi - Senior VP of Finance & Operations, CFO and CAO

  • All right.

    好的。

  • So let me finish with a few comments on key items for you to remember.

    因此,讓我以一些關鍵項目的評論結束,供您記住。

  • We will remain focused on Analog and Embedded, the best products, and industrial and automotive, the best markets.

    我們將繼續專注於最好的模擬和嵌入式產品,以及最好的工業和汽車市場。

  • Next, we will be disciplined in executing our capital management strategy and remain committed to returning free cash flow to the owners of the company.

    接下來,我們將嚴格執行我們的資本管理戰略,並繼續致力於將自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

  • And lastly, we believe growing free cash flow per share over the long term is what will maximize value for the owners of the company.

    最後,我們認為,從長遠來看,每股自由現金流的增長將使公司所有者的價值最大化。

  • Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

    Dave Pahl - Head of IR & VP

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you for joining us tonight.

    感謝您今晚加入我們。

  • Good night.

    晚安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference.

    今天的會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for your participation.

    感謝您的參與。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連接。