德州儀器 (TXN) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Texas Instruments 4Q '18 and 2018 Year-End Earnings Release Conference.

大家好，歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 18 年第四季度和 2018 年年終收益發布大會。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音中。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Dave Pahl.

現在，我想將會議轉交給 Dave Pahl。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and 2018 earnings conference call.

下午好，感謝您參加我們的第四季度和 2018 年收益電話會議。

Rafael Lizardi, TI's Chief Financial Officer, is with me today.

TI 的首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 今天和我在一起。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

對於錯過該版本的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

此電話正在網絡上直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。

A replay will be available through the web.

重播將通過網絡提供。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

此電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

我們鼓勵您查看有關今天發布的收益發布中包含的前瞻性陳述的通知以及 TI 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

First, let me provide some information that's important for your calendars.

首先，讓我提供一些對您的日曆很重要的信息。

We plan to hold a call to review our capital management strategy on February 5 at 10 a.m.

我們計劃於 2 月 5 日上午 10 點召開電話會議，審查我們的資本管理策略。

Central time.

中央時間。

Similar to what we've done in the past, Rafael and I will provide insight into our strategy.

與我們過去所做的類似，Rafael 和我將提供對我們戰略的見解。

For today's call, let me start by summarizing what Rafael and I will be reviewing.

對於今天的電話會議，讓我首先總結一下 Rafael 和我將要審查的內容。

I'll cover 3 topics: first, a high-level summary of the financial results for the fourth quarter; second, I'll provide some details of the fourth quarter by segment and end market, and I'll include some additional color in light of the market weakness we're currently experiencing; and finally, since this is the end of the calendar year, I'll provide a summary of our performance by end market for 2018.

我將涵蓋 3 個主題：第一，第四季度財務業績的高度總結；其次，我將按細分市場和終端市場提供第四季度的一些詳細信息，並根據我們目前正在經歷的市場疲軟情況添加一些額外的顏色；最後，由於今年是日曆年的末尾，我將按終端市場總結 2018 年的表現。

Rafael will then review profitability, capital management results and the outlook.

拉斐爾隨後將審查盈利能力、資本管理結果和前景。

We'll then open the call for Q&A.

然後我們將打開問答電話。

Starting with a high-level summary for the fourth quarter results.

從第四季度業績的高級摘要開始。

The weakness in demand for our products that began in the third quarter, continued into the fourth quarter.

從第三季度開始，對我們產品的需求疲軟一直持續到第四季度。

The weakness was across most markets and came in about as we expected.

大多數市場都表現疲軟，並且如我們預期的那樣出現。

There were a few exceptions that I'll cover in more detail when I discuss our fourth quarter segment and end market performance.

在討論我們的第四季度細分市場和終端市場表現時，我將更詳細地介紹一些例外情況。

In our core businesses, Analog revenue grew 4%, and [Embedded] (corrected by company after the call) Processing declined 12% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

在我們的核心業務中，模擬收入增長了 4%，[嵌入式]（公司在電話會議後更正）處理與去年同期相比下降了 12%。

Both businesses' growth decelerated.

兩項業務的增長都放緩了。

Operating margins decreased in both businesses.

兩項業務的營業利潤率均有所下降。

And similar to the third quarter, Embedded remained weaker than Analog, primarily because Analog benefited from increasing content in 5G, while the weakness in other markets became more pronounced in Embedded.

與第三季度類似，嵌入式仍然弱於模擬，主要是因為模擬受益於 5G 內容的增加，而其他市場的疲軟在嵌入式中變得更加明顯。

It is not unusual for Analog and Embedded to perform differently in the short term, but they are more consistent in the long term.

模擬和嵌入式在短期內表現不同並不罕見，但從長遠來看它們更加一致。

Earnings per share were $1.27, including $0.01 discrete tax benefit not in our original guidance.

每股收益為 1.27 美元，包括 0.01 美元的離散稅收優惠，不在我們最初的指導中。

In the fourth quarter, our cash flow from operations was $2.1 billion.

第四季度，我們的運營現金流為 21 億美元。

As we note each quarter, we believe that free cash flow growth, especially on a per-share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term.

正如我們每個季度所指出的那樣，我們認為自由現金流的增長，尤其是每股增長，對於實現股東價值的長期最大化最為重要。

Free cash flow for the trailing 12-month period was $6.1 billion, up 30% from a year ago.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 61 億美元，同比增長 30%。

Free cash flow margin for the same period was 38.4% of revenue, up from 31.2% a year ago.

同期自由現金流利潤率為收入的 38.4%，高於一年前的 31.2%。

We continue to benefit from an improved product portfolio that's long-lived and diverse and the efficiency of our manufacturing strategy, the latter of which includes our growing 300-millimeter Analog output.

我們繼續受益於經久耐用且多樣化的改進產品組合以及我們製造戰略的效率，後者包括我們不斷增長的 300 毫米模擬輸出。

We believe that free cash flow will only be valued if it's productively invested in the business or if it's returned to owners.

我們認為，自由現金流只有在對企業進行富有成效的投資或將其返還給所有者時才會受到重視。

In 2018, we returned $7.7 billion in cash to owners through a combination of dividends and stock repurchases.

2018 年，我們通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式向所有者返還了 77 億美元現金。

Moving on, I'll now provide some details on the fourth quarter by segment and end market and offer some additional color on the market.

繼續，我現在將按細分市場和終端市場提供有關第四季度的一些詳細信息，並在市場上提供一些額外的顏色。

From a year-ago quarter, Analog revenue grew 4% due to Signal Chain and Power, partially offset by declines in high volume.

與去年同期相比，由於信號鍊和電源，模擬收入增長了 4%，部分被高銷量的下降所抵消。

Embedded Processing revenue declined 12% from the year-ago quarter due to declines in both product lines, Processors and Connected Microcontrollers.

由於處理器和連接微控制器這兩條產品線的下滑，嵌入式處理收入較去年同期下降了 12%。

In our Other segment, revenue declined $31 million from the year-ago quarter.

在我們的其他部門，收入比去年同期下降了 3100 萬美元。

For the year in total, Analog and Embedded grew 9% and 2%, respectively, and combined were 91% of TI's revenue.

全年，模擬和嵌入式分別增長 9% 和 2%，合計佔 TI 收入的 91%。

Now given the current market environment, I want to provide some additional color on the quarter.

現在鑑於當前的市場環境，我想為本季度提供一些額外的色彩。

As I mentioned earlier, the weakness in demand in our products that began in the third quarter continued into the fourth quarter.

正如我之前提到的，從第三季度開始的產品需求疲軟一直持續到第四季度。

Demand came in mostly as expected, although personal electronics, and specifically smartphones, was weaker, including Chinese smartphone manufacturers.

儘管個人電子產品，特別是智能手機，包括中國智能手機製造商在內，需求基本符合預期。

Automotive and industrial both declined sequentially but still grew single digits from the year-ago quarter.

汽車和工業都環比下降，但仍比去年同期增長個位數。

In contrast, communications equipment grew about 20% year-on-year, benefiting from 5G deployment.

相比之下，通信設備同比增長約20%，受益於5G部署。

On a regional basis, demand in China was weaker than the other regions.

從地區來看，中國的需求弱於其他地區。

End markets within China, though, behaved directionally consistent with the rest of the world.

不過，中國終端市場的表現與世界其他地區一致。

We are seeing signs from our customers and the channel that this weakness is primarily from increased caution due to trade tensions.

我們從客戶和渠道中看到的跡象表明，這種疲軟主要是由於貿易緊張局勢導致人們更加謹慎。

We assume that this weakness is a combination of lower local end demand as well as reduced exports, but we do not have visibility to distinguish between the two.

我們假設這種疲軟是本地終端需求下降和出口減少的結合，但我們無法區分兩者。

In addition, I would note that distributors, particularly in Asia, did get more conservative on their inventory positions late in the quarter.

此外，我要指出的是，分銷商，尤其是亞洲的分銷商，在本季度末的庫存狀況確實變得更加保守。

Finally, as we do at the end and close of each calendar year, I'll now describe our revenue by end market for 2018, which is a good indicator of our strategic progress.

最後，正如我們在每個日曆年結束時所做的那樣，我現在將按終端市場描述 2018 年的收入，這是我們戰略進展的一個很好的指標。

We break this into six categories: industrial; automotive; personal electronics, which includes products such as mobile phones, PCs, tablets and TVs; communications equipment; enterprise systems; and other, which is primarily calculators.

我們將其分為六類：工業；汽車；個人電子產品，包括手機、個人電腦、平板電腦和電視等產品；通訊設備；企業系統；和其他，主要是計算器。

In summary, industrial, automotive and enterprise systems each grew double digits, while communications equipment was about even, and personal electronics declined low-single digits in 2018.

總而言之，工業、汽車和企業系統在 2018 年各自增長了兩位數，而通信設備大致持平，個人電子產品在 2018 年下降了低個位數。

Specifically, as a percentage of revenue, industrial was 36% and automotive was 20%.

具體來說，工業佔收入的百分比為 36%，汽車佔 20%。

Personal electronics was 23%, comms equipment and enterprise systems were 11% and 7%, respectively.

個人電子產品佔 23%，通訊設備和企業系統分別佔 11% 和 7%。

Other was 3% of revenue, down low-single digits.

其他佔收入的 3%，下降了低個位數。

One of our competitive advantages is diversity and longevity.

我們的競爭優勢之一是多樣性和長期性。

For 2018, we did not have a customer who was more than 10% of our revenue.

2018 年，我們沒有一個客戶占我們收入的 10% 以上。

We continue our efforts to diversify our growth across products, markets and customers, strengthening this competitive advantage.

我們繼續努力實現產品、市場和客戶的多元化增長，以加強這一競爭優勢。

We continue to focus our strategy on industrial and automotive markets, where we've been allocating our capital and driving initiatives to strengthen our position.

我們繼續將我們的戰略重點放在工業和汽車市場上，我們一直在這些市場上配置我們的資本和推動舉措來鞏固我們的地位。

This is based on our belief that industrial and automotive will be the fastest-growing semiconductor markets.

這是基於我們的信念，即工業和汽車將成為增長最快的半導體市場。

They have increasing semiconductor content and also provide diversity and longevity.

它們的半導體含量不斷增加，還提供了多樣性和壽命。

All of this translates to high terminal value of our portfolio.

所有這些都轉化為我們投資組合的高終值。

In 2018, industrial and automotive combined made up 56% of TI's revenue, up from 54% in 2017 and up from 42% just five years ago.

2018 年，工業和汽車行業合計佔 TI 收入的 56%，高於 2017 年的 54% 和五年前的 42%。

We have established momentum in these markets, and we see great opportunity ahead.

我們已經在這些市場建立了勢頭，我們看到了巨大的機遇。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.41 billion or 64.8% of revenue.

本季度毛利為 24.1 億美元，佔收入的 64.8%。

From a year ago, gross profit decreased primarily due to lower revenue and reduced factory loadings.

與一年前相比，毛利下降主要是由於收入減少和工廠負荷減少。

Gross profit margin decreased 30 basis points.

毛利率下降30個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $814 million.

本季度的運營費用為 8.14 億美元。

Operating expenses for the year were up 1% and were 20.5% of revenue, within our range of expectations.

今年的運營費用增長了 1%，佔收入的 20.5%，在我們的預期範圍內。

For the year, we have invested $1.56 billion in R&D, an important element of our capital allocation.

今年，我們在研發方面投資了 15.6 億美元，這是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。

Acquisition charges and noncash expense was $79 million.

收購費用和非現金費用為 7900 萬美元。

Acquisition charges will be about $80 million per quarter through the third quarter and then decline to about $50 million per quarter for two remaining years.

截至第三季度，收購費用每季度約為 8000 萬美元，然後在剩餘兩年內降至每季度約 5000 萬美元。

Operating profit was $1.52 billion or 40.8% of revenue.

營業利潤為 15.2 億美元，佔收入的 40.8%。

Operating profit was down 3% from the year-ago quarter.

營業利潤較去年同期下降 3%。

Operating margin for Analog was 46.7%, and for Embedded Processing was 29.6%.

模擬業務的營業利潤率為 46.7%，嵌入式處理業務的營業利潤率為 29.6%。

Our focused investments on the best sustainable growth opportunities with differentiated positions enabled both businesses to continue to contribute nicely to free cash flow growth over time.

我們專注於具有差異化定位的最佳可持續增長機會的投資，使這兩家公司能夠隨著時間的推移繼續為自由現金流增長做出良好貢獻。

Net income in the fourth quarter was $1.24 billion or $1.27 per share, which included a $0.01 discrete tax benefit not in our prior outlook as we have discussed.

第四季度的淨收入為 12.4 億美元或每股 1.27 美元，其中包括 0.01 美元的離散稅收優惠，正如我們所討論的那樣，這不在我們之前的展望中。

As a reminder, the year-ago quarter included noncash charges associated with the tax law changes.

提醒一下，去年同期包括與稅法變化相關的非現金費用。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我從我們的現金生成開始評論我們的資本管理結果。

Cash flow from operations was $2.15 billion in the quarter, up 11% from a year ago.

本季度運營現金流為 21.5 億美元，同比增長 11%。

Capital expenditures were $323 million in the quarter.

本季度的資本支出為 3.23 億美元。

In the fourth quarter, we paid $736 million in dividends and repurchased $2.01 billion of our own stock for a total return to owners of $2.75 billion in the fourth quarter.

第四季度，我們支付了 7.36 億美元的股息並回購了 20.1 億美元的自有股票，第四季度向所有者的總回報為 27.5 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $4.23 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the fourth quarter.

截至第四季度末，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，現金和短期投資達 42.3 億美元。

Total debt was $5.1 billion, with a weighted average coupon rate of 2.77%.

總債務為 51 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 2.77%。

Inventory days were 152, up 18 days from a year ago and above our targeted range as mentioned on our last call.

庫存天數為 152 天，比一年前增加 18 天，高於我們在上次電話會議中提到的目標範圍。

We continue to believe there is strategic value in owning and controlling our inventory.

我們仍然相信擁有和控制我們的庫存具有戰略價值。

We have reduced our operating plans starting in the fourth quarter, but we are also working to replenish inventory of low-volume devices.

我們從第四季度開始減少了運營計劃，但我們也在努力補充低產量設備的庫存。

These actions have served us well in the past.

這些行動過去對我們很有幫助。

In addition, we have made progress on our next phase of our consignment programs with our distributors.

此外，我們在與經銷商的下一階段寄售計劃方面取得了進展。

We expect inventory will continue to run above our targeted range for several more quarters.

我們預計庫存將在未來幾個季度繼續高於我們的目標範圍。

Now let's look at some of these results for the year.

現在讓我們看看今年的一些結果。

In 2018, cash flow from operations was $7.19 billion.

2018 年，運營現金流為 71.9 億美元。

Capital expenditures were $1.13 billion or 7.2% of revenue.

資本支出為 11.3 億美元，佔收入的 7.2%。

Free cash flow for 2018 was $6.06 billion or 38.4% of revenue.

2018 年的自由現金流為 60.6 億美元，佔收入的 38.4%。

Our cash flow reflects the strength of our business model.

我們的現金流反映了我們商業模式的實力。

As we have said, we believe free cash flow growth, especially on a per share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term and will be valued only if it is productively invested in the business or returned to shareholders.

正如我們所說，我們認為自由現金流的增長，尤其是每股增長，對於實現股東價值的長期最大化最為重要，並且只有在對業務進行富有成效的投資或回報給股東時才會有價值。

We remain committed to return all our free cash flow to owners.

我們仍然致力於將所有自由現金流返還給所有者。

Total cash returned to owners in 2018 was $7.66 billion.

2018 年返還給所有者的現金總額為 76.6 億美元。

These combined returns of dividends and share repurchases demonstrate our confidence in our business model and our commitment to return all free cash flow to our owners.

這些股息和股票回購的綜合回報表明了我們對我們的商業模式的信心以及我們將所有自由現金流返還給我們所有者的承諾。

In 2018 we paid $2.56 billion in dividends or about 42% of free cash flow, evidence of their sustainability.

2018 年，我們支付了 25.6 億美元的股息，約佔自由現金流的 42%，這證明了它們的可持續性。

Outstanding share count was reduced by 3.9% in 2018 and has been reduced by 45% since the end of 2004, when we initiated our program design to reduce our share count.

流通股數量在 2018 年減少了 3.9%，自 2004 年底我們啟動計劃設計以減少我們的股票數量以來已經減少了 45%。

Turning to our outlook for the first quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.34 billion to $3.62 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.03 to $1.21, which includes an estimated $20 million discrete tax benefit.

談到我們對第一季度的展望，我們預計 TI 收入在 33.4 億美元至 36.2 億美元之間，每股收益在 1.03 美元至 1.21 美元之間，其中包括估計 2000 萬美元的離散稅收優惠。

For 2019, our operating -- our annual operating tax rate remains unchanged from our prior expectation of 16%.

對於 2019 年，我們的經營——我們的年度經營稅率與我們之前預期的 16% 保持不變。

As usual, details of our expectations for taxes can be found on our IR website under Financial Summary Data.

與往常一樣，可以在我們的 IR 網站的“財務摘要數據”下找到我們對稅收預期的詳細信息。

In closing, we believe that after 10 quarters of year-on-year growth, the weakness we are seeing is primarily due to the semiconductor cycle.

最後，我們認為在經歷了 10 個季度的同比增長之後，我們看到的疲軟主要是由於半導體週期。

In addition, the macro environment, including uncertainty caused by trade tensions, could impact the depth and duration of this cycle.

此外，宏觀環境，包括貿易緊張局勢造成的不確定性，可能會影響本週期的深度和持續時間。

Given our experience, we will stay focused on making TI stronger for the long term while remaining diligent in the short term.

根據我們的經驗，我們將繼續專注於讓 TI 長期變得更強大，同時在短期內保持勤奮。

We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are technology and manufacturing, portfolio breadth, market reach and diverse and long-lived positions.

我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即技術和製造、產品組合廣度、市場範圍以及多樣化和長期的地位。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best products, Analog and Embedded Processing, and the best markets, industrial and automotive, which I believe will enable us to continue to improve and deliver free cash flow per share growth for a long time to come.

我們將通過嚴格的資本配置和專注於最好的產品、模擬和嵌入式處理以及最好的工業和汽車市場來繼續加強這些優勢，我相信這將使我們能夠繼續改善並提供每股自由現金流未來很長一段時間的增長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael.

謝謝，拉斐爾。

Operator, you can now open the lines for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開問題線路。

(Operator Instructions) Operator?

（操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya 的第一個問題。

I'm curious, how are you managing your utilization in this downturn that we are seeing?

我很好奇，在我們看到的這種低迷時期，您如何管理您的利用率？

I know, Rafael, you mentioned that you have long-lived parts.

我知道，拉斐爾，你提到過你有長壽命的零件。

But how are you managing utilization?

但是您如何管理利用率？

And how are you making any distinction by the end market that the specific part is going into?

您如何區分特定部件進入的終端市場？

And as part of that, should we continue to assume the same 75% or so incremental gross margin fall-through?

作為其中的一部分，我們是否應該繼續假設相同的 75% 左右的增量毛利率下降？

Yes.

是的。

So let me answer the last one first, yes, and now let me go back to your question.

所以讓我先回答最後一個，是的，現在讓我回到你的問題。

So as I -- there's a bit of an echo on the call, but as I -- as we talked about on the call 90 days ago, we have reduced our wafer starts to align our operating plan better with our revenue expectations.

因此，正如我 - 電話中有一些迴聲，但正如我 - 正如我們在 90 天前的電話會議上談到的那樣，我們已經減少了我們的晶圓開始，以使我們的運營計劃更好地與我們的收入預期保持一致。

We did that in fourth quarter, and we're doing that again in first quarter.

我們在第四季度做到了這一點，我們在第一季度再次這樣做。

That does drive lower factory loadings, and that does have a P&L effect.

這確實會降低工廠負荷，並且確實會產生損益效應。

But the way we're thinking about it is as owners, from a cash standpoint.

但從現金的角度來看，我們是作為所有者來考慮的。

So inventory is a use of cash.

所以存貨是現金的一種使用。

As we drive down inventory, that actually helps cash.

當我們降低庫存時，這實際上有助於現金。

And most -- more importantly, it sets us up to support our revenue expectations for the coming year.

最重要的是，它使我們能夠支持來年的收入預期。

As revenue expectations -- those certain expectations change over time, then we'll adjust the factory loadings and utilization in order to manage that appropriately.

隨著收入預期——那些特定的預期隨著時間的推移而變化，那麼我們將調整工廠的負荷和利用率，以便適當地管理它。

Yes, and I'll just add to the second part of your question.

是的，我將添加到您問題的第二部分。

We've got tens of thousands of products across 100,000 customers, so you can imagine the complexity of that planning.

我們為 100,000 名客戶提供了數万種產品，因此您可以想像該計劃的複雜性。

The strongest signal that we get is the orders from customers as well as the demand signals that we get through our consignment programs.

我們獲得的最強烈信號是客戶的訂單以及我們通過寄售計劃獲得的需求信號。

So as we go through and plan wafer starts, that's what we pay close attention to.

因此，當我們通過併計劃晶圓啟動時，這就是我們密切關注的內容。

And obviously in a time like this, we'll be very diligent in watching that and then proactively moving when we need to.

顯然在這樣的時候，我們會非常勤奮地觀察，然後在需要時主動採取行動。

So with that, do you have a follow-up, Vivek?

那麼，Vivek，你有後續行動嗎？

Dave, so the second part is I know you mentioned that it's hard to predict when we come out of this downturn.

戴夫，第二部分是我知道你提到過很難預測我們何時走出這場低迷。

But are there any other signs that you look at, even if they're qualitative, that can give us some indication when whether this is a one or two or three-quarter issue?

但是，您是否還有任何其他跡象，即使它們是定性的，也可以給我們一些指示，說明這是一個四分之三的問題還是四分之三的問題？

I understand it's trade-dependent.

我知道這取決於貿易。

But have you seen cancellations that are any different or similar to prior downturns?

但是你有沒有看到與之前的低迷期有任何不同或相似的取消？

Any other color that you could help -- that you could give us to help us try and at least predict somewhat when we come out of this will be very useful.

您可以提供幫助的任何其他顏色——您可以提供給我們以幫助我們嘗試並至少在某種程度上預測我們何時走出這一步，這將非常有用。

Yes, Vivek, so maybe just a couple of things.

是的，Vivek，所以也許只有幾件事。

I think when we look at different things that we can look at like cancellations, they were up in the quarter but just up a little.

我認為，當我們查看我們可以查看的不同事物時，例如取消，它們在本季度有所增加，但只增加了一點。

Lead times overall, they continue to be stable.

總的來說，交貨時間繼續保持穩定。

We can always find pockets where we're working aggressively with customers to close.

我們總能找到與客戶積極合作的口袋來關閉。

But by and far, they tend to be very stable.

但到目前為止，它們往往非常穩定。

So we'll look at all of those signals.

因此，我們將研究所有這些信號。

I think on a broader view, and I've been in the industry for over 30 years now, we look at data over that period of time.

我認為從更廣泛的角度來看，我已經在這個行業工作了 30 多年，我們看的是那段時間的數據。

And I've been through nine up cycles, and obviously, we're entering into the ninth down cycle.

我已經經歷了九個上升週期，顯然，我們正在進入第九個下降週期。

And if you stared at the data, and I've seen in your reports, Vivek, that you've done some analysis on that too, there is no typical or average to those numbers.

如果你盯著數據看，我在你的報告中看到，Vivek，你也對此做了一些分析，這些數字沒有典型或平均值。

But if you had to pick a number, it's probably around 12 months that a cycle could last.

但如果你必須選擇一個數字，一個週期可能會持續 12 個月左右。

And things like the trade tensions could lengthen that, but it doesn't mean it has to be that long.

貿易緊張局勢之類的事情可能會延長這一時間，但這並不意味著它必須那麼久。

As you know, it could be longer or shorter than that.

如您所知，它可能比那更長或更短。

So again, the best signal that we get is those orders from customers.

同樣，我們得到的最好信號是來自客戶的訂單。

Rafael, you want to add to that?

拉斐爾，你想補充嗎？

Yes, just to add to that, we are proactively setting the operating plan so that we can manage whatever comes at us.

是的，除此之外，我們正在積極制定運營計劃，以便我們可以管理我們遇到的任何事情。

So it's at a level that if we can run sideways for a while, we are prepared to support a potential snapback.

因此，在某種程度上，如果我們可以橫向運行一段時間，我們就準備好支持潛在的回彈。

Or if it's deeper and longer, then we have to make further adjustments.

或者如果它更深更長，那我們就得做進一步的調整。

But we're in a good position to make those adjustments and protect the cash flow and help the company in a good position going forward.

但我們有能力進行這些調整併保護現金流並幫助公司在未來處於有利地位。

We'll move to John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

我們將與 Crédit Suisse 一起轉向 John Pitzer。

Just, Rafael, going back to kind of utilization and inventory, I know you said in your prepared comments, you'll be above sort of your inventory targets for next several quarters.

只是，拉斐爾，回到某種利用率和庫存，我知道你在準備好的評論中說過，你將超過未來幾個季度的庫存目標。

I'm just kind of curious, relative to how you see the world today and what action you've already taken on utilization, do you think 152 days will represent kind of the peak in inventory days?

我只是有點好奇，相對於您如何看待當今世界以及您已經採取了哪些行動來提高利用率，您認為 152 天會代表庫存天數的峰值嗎？

Or would you expect it to migrate higher before migrating lower?

或者你會期望它在遷移到更低之前遷移得更高嗎？

And I guess as you answer the question, if you could just remind us with the consignment plan, kind of how -- what are the new targets for inventory longer term?

我想當你回答這個問題時，如果你能用寄售計劃提醒我們，怎麼樣 - 長期庫存的新目標是什麼？

Yes, so that's a good question.

是的，這是個好問題。

Let me just give you a few things to think about on that.

讓我給你一些事情來考慮一下。

First, as I said before, at the end of the day, our objective here is to maximize long-term growth of free cash flow.

首先，正如我之前所說，歸根結底，我們的目標是最大限度地實現自由現金流的長期增長。

So that's how we think about all these knobs.

這就是我們對所有這些旋鈕的看法。

Loadings and inventory is one of them.

裝載量和庫存就是其中之一。

CapEx is another one, and then all we're doing is trying to maximize the long-term growth.

資本支出是另一個，然後我們所做的就是努力最大化長期增長。

With inventory, as we say, we see value in owning that inventory.

正如我們所說，對於庫存，我們看到了擁有該庫存的價值。

That's part of the reason why we are building that low volume -- those low-volume buffers that we talked about.

這就是我們構建低容量的部分原因——我們談到的那些低容量緩衝區。

It's also the reason why we're increasing the consignment inventory.

這也是我們增加寄售庫存的原因。

And that does push -- put upward pressure on inventory.

這確實推動了——給庫存帶來上行壓力。

At the same time, we -- overall, we have lowered the operating plan.

與此同時，我們 - 總體而言，我們降低了運營計劃。

So that is to control the cash that's used for inventory more so than any particular inventory days target.

因此，這是為了控制用於庫存的現金，而不是任何特定的庫存天數目標。

Now to get to the heart of your specific question, it depends, right?

現在要進入您的具體問題的核心，這取決於，對嗎？

So if this thing gets weaker, then inventory days could theoretically go up higher than 152.

所以如果這個東西變弱，那麼理論上庫存天數可能會超過 152。

If it stays above stable, then over one, two or three quarters, we'll get back to the -- inside the range.

如果它保持在穩定之上，那麼在一個、兩個或三個季度內，我們將回到 - 範圍內。

You have a follow-up, John?

你有後續行動嗎，約翰？

Dave, as a follow-up, you talked about sort of the -- there has been times where discrepancy in growth between Analog and Embedded.

戴夫，作為後續行動，你談到了——有時模擬和嵌入式之間的增長存在差異。

I'm wondering if you could just help us understand kind of from an end market perspective where the discrepancy is sort of the largest?

我想知道您是否可以從終端市場的角度幫助我們了解差異最大的地方？

So for example, I know in comms space, there's a really good content story on the Analog side that might not be there on the Embedded side.

因此，例如，我知道在通信領域，模擬方面有一個非常好的內容故事，而嵌入式方面可能沒有。

So when you look at the difference of growth rates, is there any sort of end market color you can give us?

因此，當您查看增長率的差異時，您可以給我們提供任何終端市場顏色嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And certainly, both of those segments do have different end market exposure.

當然，這兩個細分市場確實有不同的終端市場風險。

We talked about the benefit that Analog is seeing in comms equipment.

我們談到了 Analog 在通信設備中看到的好處。

Most of our PE revenue is in Analog as well, so that's the difference.

我們的大部分 PE 收入也來自模擬，所以這就是不同之處。

We do have some inside of Embedded.

我們確實有一些嵌入式的內部。

But -- and John, if you look at year-over-year growth rates for as long as we've had these segments out there, you'll notice in times that they actually move in opposite directions.

但是 - 約翰，如果你看一下我們有這些細分市場的同比增長率，你會有時注意到它們實際上朝著相反的方向發展。

And -- but over time, if you look at those numbers, they really do perform more similar.

而且——但隨著時間的推移，如果你看一下這些數字，它們確實表現得更相似。

And then also if you look at just industry data for the Analog market and compare that to the Embedded market, those behave differently.

然後，如果您只查看模擬市場的行業數據並將其與嵌入式市場進行比較，它們的表現也會有所不同。

So I think that that's just kind of the facts of how those two businesses behave.

所以我認為這只是這兩家企業的行為方式的一部分。

We'll move next to Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們將與 JPMorgan 一起搬到 Harlan Sur 旁邊。

What was the book to bill in the December quarter?

12 月季度的帳單是什麼？

And near term, kind of looking at bookings and the rolling forecast on your direct and consignment base customers, have you guys seen any signs of stabilization?

短期內，看看您的直接和寄售基礎客戶的預訂和滾動預測，你們有沒有看到任何穩定的跡象？

Or do the near-term trends still suggest kind of continued weakness along the same sort of slope?

或者近期趨勢是否仍然表明沿著同樣的斜率持續疲軟？

Yes.

是的。

So our book to bill, and I always make this comment whenever it's asked, we've got now 65% of our revenues on some type of a consignment program.

所以我們要付賬的書，只要有人問我，我總是會發表評論，我們現在有 65% 的收入來自某種類型的寄售計劃。

So you're seeing that number begin to move up as we implement further stages of our consignment programs with distributors.

所以你看到這個數字開始上升，因為我們與分銷商一起實施寄售計劃的進一步階段。

So book to bill is -- somewhat, you just have to be cautious with the number.

所以預訂到賬單是——在某種程度上，你只需要對數字保持謹慎。

But this past quarter it was 0.98.

但上個季度是 0.98。

It was 0.98 a year ago and 0.96 in the last quarter.

一年前為 0.98，上一季度為 0.96。

So that's just what the facts are.

這就是事實。

I think if you look at things like order linearity, orders decreased each month of the quarter.

我想如果你看一下訂單線性度之類的東西，這個季度每個月的訂單都會減少。

To some degree, that's not completely unusual that in the fourth quarter that you'd see weakness as you got into the third month.

在某種程度上，在第四季度進入第三個月時你會看到疲軟，這並不完全不尋常。

But I'd just say that those orders and the demand feeds that we get from our customers has really driven us to give you the guidance that we have.

但我只想說，我們從客戶那裡獲得的那些訂單和需求反饋確實促使我們為您提供我們所擁有的指導。

So that's really where we are, Harlan.

所以這就是我們所處的位置，Harlan。

You have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Given the growth this year, you guys drove another $1 billion of Analog revenues to your 300-millimeter fabs.

鑑於今年的增長，你們又為你們的 300 毫米晶圓廠帶來了 10 億美元的模擬收入。

You've got probably about another $3 billion left to go.

您可能還剩下大約 30 億美元。

So if I assume kind of high single digits type of normalized revenue growth for Analog, your 300-millimeter fabs is going to be full in about 1.5 years.

因此，如果我假設 Analog 的標準化收入增長是高個位數，那麼您的 300 毫米晶圓廠將在大約 1.5 年內滿負荷生產。

It would seem that the team would be having to make a decision soon about your new fab expansion initiatives.

看起來團隊將不得不很快就您的新晶圓廠擴張計劃做出決定。

So you guys have any updates there?

所以你們那裡有任何更新嗎？

Yes, let me give you my view, and then Dave may go ahead and chime in.

是的，讓我談談我的看法，然後戴夫可能會插話。

But capacity planning for a new 300-millimeter tranche of capacity, that's something we of course take very seriously and something that has a very long-term horizon.

但是，為新的 300 毫米容量進行容量規劃，這當然是我們非常重視的事情，並且具有非常長期的前景。

So this is something that is not changed by small fluctuations in short-term expectations.

所以這是短期預期的小幅波動不會改變的事情。

So we are continuing the planning process on that.

所以我們正在繼續這方面的規劃過程。

And right now, we have options to consider, and we'll continue thinking of that.

現在，我們有多種選擇可供考慮，我們將繼續考慮這一點。

As we have said, I think, 90 days ago, whenever we do decide to go that route, if we do build a factory, that'd probably be a $600 million to $700 million cost on the shell that you're building, and that would probably be spent over a couple of years.

正如我們所說，我認為，90 天前，每當我們決定走那條路時，如果我們真的要建一個工廠，那麼你正在建造的外殼可能需要 6 億到 7 億美元的成本，而且這可能會花費幾年時間。

So that's not the only option we have for -- to expand capacity.

所以這不是我們唯一的選擇——擴大產能。

We can always buy an existing factory, and that's another option that we're considering.

我們總是可以購買現有的工廠，這是我們正在考慮的另一種選擇。

And also I would say, the -- if we do build a factory, there are multiple locations that we're considering.

而且我還要說，如果我們真的要建工廠，我們正在考慮多個地點。

I'd just add, Harlan, that last year, we had about $4.8 billion of our Analog revenue on 300-millimeter footprint.

Harlan，我只想補充一點，去年，我們在 300 毫米佔地面積上的模擬收入約為 48 億美元。

That was up from about $4 billion.

這高於大約 40 億美元。

That's real close to what the Analog segment actually grew.

這與模擬部分的實際增長非常接近。

So again, we've kind of talked about as Analog would grow, that it would be 300-millimeter that would support the growth.

因此，我們又一次談到了 Analog 的增長，即支持增長的是 300 毫米。

And roughly, that's what we've seen again this quarter.

粗略地說，這就是我們本季度再次看到的情況。

We'll take Chris Danely with Citigroup.

我們將聘請花旗集團的 Chris Danely。

Dave, first of all, congratulations on surviving eight downturns.

戴夫，首先，祝賀你挺過了八次低迷。

Can you guys talk about the ability to manage CapEx and OpEx this year if this sluggish time period continues?

如果這個低迷時期持續下去，你們能談談今年管理資本支出和運營支出的能力嗎？

Could you work OpEx down on a year-over-year basis?

您能否逐年降低運營支出？

And then I think you said CapEx was 7.2% of sales or something like that.

然後我想你說資本支出佔銷售額的 7.2% 或類似的東西。

What should we be thinking about CapEx as a percent of sales this year?

我們應該如何看待今年資本支出佔銷售額的百分比？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Let me give you some background.

讓我給你一些背景知識。

First, as I mentioned earlier on the call, all the knobs that we have at the end of the day are to optimize and maximize long-term growth of free cash flow per share.

首先，正如我之前在電話會議上提到的，我們在一天結束時擁有的所有旋鈕都是為了優化和最大化每股自由現金流的長期增長。

So that's the main objective, as you know very well from knowing us for many years in our capital management strategy.

所以這是主要目標，正如您在我們的資本管理戰略中了解我們多年所了解的那樣。

So CapEx is one of those knobs, right?

所以資本支出是其中之一，對吧？

And in -- for CapEx specifically, what is the objective, it's to invest to support new technology development, it's revenue growth and to expand our low-cost manufacturing advantage.

在 - 特別是資本支出方面，目標是投資以支持新技術開發，收入增長並擴大我們的低成本製造優勢。

So in 2018, we spent $1.1 billion of CapEx.

所以在 2018 年，我們花費了 11 億美元的資本支出。

And as you pointed out, that was 7.2% of revenue.

正如您所指出的，那是收入的 7.2%。

At the same time, we generated $6.1 billion of free cash flow.

與此同時，我們產生了 61 億美元的自由現金流。

That was 30% growth on free cash flow from the previous year.

與上一年相比，自由現金流增長了 30%。

So despite that CapEx, we increased free cash flow, that 30%.

因此，儘管有資本支出，我們還是增加了自由現金流，即 30%。

Now that CapEx is positioning us to grow the top line and free cash flow for a long time to come.

現在，資本支出使我們能夠在未來很長一段時間內增加收入和自由現金流。

Now given, as you pointed out and as our midpoint and our range implies, a decelerating market, then we can do things differently on CapEx going forward.

現在，正如你所指出的，正如我們的中點和我們的範圍所暗示的那樣，一個減速的市場，那麼我們可以在未來的資本支出上做不同的事情。

I expect, if conditions continue, a slowdown in CapEx, probably not in the first quarter, maybe not even in the second quarter, but over 2019.

我預計，如果情況持續下去，資本支出會放緩，可能不會在第一季度，甚至可能不會在第二季度，但會在 2019 年結束。

But just keep that in mind, keep in mind that, that is all dependent on expectations of growth beyond that for years, not just 2019 or even 2020.

但請記住這一點，請記住，這完全取決於對未來幾年的增長預期，而不僅僅是 2019 年甚至 2020 年。

So we'll adjust those -- we'll adjust the CapEx plan as those expectations change.

因此，我們將調整這些 - 我們將隨著這些預期的變化調整資本支出計劃。

Yes.

是的。

And I'd just add, I think when you look at 2019 that we'd expect CapEx to run into the future, even beyond 2019, closer to 6% of revenue, and that's higher than what it's been in the past just because of the availability of use of 300-millimeter equipment on the market.

我只想補充一點，我認為當你回顧 2019 年時，我們預計資本支出將在未來運行，甚至超過 2019 年，接近收入的 6%，這比過去更高，只是因為300 毫米設備在市場上的可用性。

So that's what our expectations there are.

這就是我們的期望。

You have a follow-on, Chris?

你有後續嗎，克里斯？

Yes.

是的。

Can you guys just talk about how the slowdown is impacting your 2 biggest end markets, industrial and automotive?

你們能談談經濟放緩對工業和汽車這兩個最大的終端市場有何影響嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I think that when we look at them, they both slowed in the quarter.

所以我認為，當我們觀察它們時，它們在本季度都放緩了。

We actually saw industrial, it was really broad-based growth.

我們實際上看到了工業，它確實是基礎廣泛的增長。

From a year-on-year basis, it was double digits.

從同比來看，是兩位數。

But inside of the quarter, it actually grew upper-single digits.

但在本季度內，它實際上增長了個位數。

And then automotive again had slowed, but it grew double digits in total for the year.

然後汽車再次放緩，但全年增長了兩位數。

But for the quarter, for year-on-year quarter, it grew in low-single digits.

但就本季度而言，與去年同期相比，它以低個位數增長。

So again, both of those markets are growing, but certainly not at the rates that we have seen over the past few years.

因此，這兩個市場都在增長，但肯定不會以我們過去幾年看到的速度增長。

That'll be from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

那將來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

Dave, can you give us an idea of OpEx for March?

戴夫，你能給我們介紹一下 3 月份的運營支出嗎？

I know it's typically up like 5% seasonally, but it's also a little more fixed now than in the past.

我知道它通常季節性上漲 5%，但現在也比過去更加固定。

So is it going to be up a smidge both year-over-year and on a quarterly basis?

那麼它會比去年同期和季度都略有上升嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I'll go ahead and take that.

所以我會繼續接受那個。

First, step back real quick, OpEx is just another knob that we have to optimize long-term growth of free cash flow per share, right?

首先，快速退一步，OpEx 只是我們必須優化每股自由現金流長期增長的另一個關鍵，對吧？

At the end of the day, that is the long-term objective.

歸根結底，這是長期目標。

And in the case of OpEx, it's an opportunity to invest in R&D.

就 OpEx 而言，這是投資研發的機會。

So to put more products for industrial and automotive is an opportunity to invest in demand creation on the SG&A side and other things, other initiatives that's going to strengthen our competitive advantages.

因此，為工業和汽車提供更多產品是一個機會，可以在 SG&A 方面和其他方面投資創造需求，其他舉措將加強我們的競爭優勢。

If you look at 2018, that OpEx came in at about 1% growth versus the previous year and 20.5% of revenue.

如果你看看 2018 年，運營支出與上一年相比增長了約 1%，佔收入的 20.5%。

On a go-forward basis for 2019, on a -- for dollars of OpEx, I would expect somewhere in that neighborhood maybe up a couple of percentage points for pay and benefit increases, something along those lines.

在 2019 年的前進基礎上，對於美元的 OpEx，我預計該社區的某個地方可能會增加幾個百分點的薪酬和福利增長，類似這些。

But generally speaking at about that same level, all OpEx.

但總的來說，在大約相同的水平上，所有的運營支出。

You asked specifically about the quarter.

你特別詢問了這個季度。

We give you a range for revenue, a range for EPS.

我們給你一個收入範圍，一個 EPS 範圍。

We don't get in the lines in between, but I'll tell you we're not expecting anything unusual.

我們不會介於兩者之間，但我會告訴你，我們並不期待任何不尋常的事情。

You can look at a fall-through -- expected fall-through on revenue to GPM and do your own model, and you should get to a reasonable assumption or conclusion for those lines in between.

您可以查看下降 - 預計 GPM 的收入下降並建立您自己的模型，並且您應該對介於兩者之間的那些線得出合理的假設或結論。

You have a follow-on, Tim?

你有後續嗎，蒂姆？

I do, actually.

事實上，我知道。

So Rafael, the repo was the biggest in -- as a percent of free cash flow, I think, in about three years.

所以拉斐爾，回購是最大的 - 我認為，在大約三年內佔自由現金流的百分比。

I know that you don't think of it that way on kind of a quarterly basis, but it's historically been a little more mechanical than opportunistic.

我知道你不會按季度那樣考慮，但從歷史上看，它更機械化，而不是機會主義。

So should we kind of read into that, that you were a little more opportunistic because of the stock pullback?

那麼我們是否應該讀一讀，因為股票回調，你有點機會主義？

Yes, no, thanks for the question.

是的，不，謝謝你的提問。

So again, let me step back and remind everybody what's our intent when it comes to repurchases.

因此，讓我再次退後一步，提醒大家我們在回購方面的意圖是什麼。

And our intent is to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company, and that objective has not changed.

我們的意圖是將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者，這一目標沒有改變。

We do that through a combination of dividends and buybacks, and we will be -- we have been and will be opportunistic with repurchases as it makes sense.

我們通過股息和回購相結合來做到這一點，我們將 - 我們已經並且將在有意義的情況下對回購進行機會主義。

So for example in 2018, as I mentioned earlier, our free cash flow was $6.1 billion.

因此，例如在 2018 年，正如我之前提到的，我們的自由現金流為 61 億美元。

That was an increase of 30% from the previous year, and we returned $7.7 billion throughout the year through a combination of dividends and buybacks.

這比上一年增長了 30%，我們全年通過股息和回購相結合的方式返還了 77 億美元。

And that year-on-year free cash flow growth was the biggest driver of that increase in returns, as a $6.1 billion increase from $4.7 billion in the previous year.

自由現金流的同比增長是回報增長的最大推動力，從上一年的 47 億美元增加了 61 億美元。

That'd be from Chris Caso from Raymond James.

那是來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的克里斯卡索。

First question, I wonder if you can talk about geographic differences.

第一個問題，我想知道你是否可以談談地域差異。

And you mentioned China in your opening remarks, and I think that's obvious right now.

你在開場白中提到了中國，我認為現在這是顯而易見的。

Maybe what did you see there and contrast that with what you saw in the U.S. and Europe.

也許你在那裡看到了什麼，並將其與你在美國和歐洲看到的進行對比。

Was that weak also, just perhaps not as weak as China business?

那也很弱嗎，也許不像中國業務那麼弱？

Yes, that's exactly right, Chris.

是的，完全正確，克里斯。

So when we look at China, it was weaker than the other regions.

所以當我們看中國時，它比其他地區弱。

And then when you drop down into the end markets within China, I'd just describe it as really performing very similarly, directionally, meaning that comms equipment was up as it was in other areas.

然後，當你深入到中國的終端市場時，我只是將其描述為非常相似的方向性表現，這意味著通信設備與其他領域一樣在上升。

We saw markets of auto and industrial as well as enterprise get weaker from that standpoint.

從這個角度來看，我們看到汽車和工業市場以及企業市場都在走弱。

So we did see that difference this quarter.

所以我們在本季度確實看到了這種差異。

You have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And I guess, you had also mentioned in your remarks the impact of the trade issues and tariffs.

我想，您在發言中也提到了貿易問題和關稅的影響。

And obviously, it's very hard to disassociate that from what's going on in the end markets.

顯然，很難將其與終端市場正在發生的事情區分開來。

But with that, have you also seen -- I guess, we've heard this from some others that perhaps there was some activity of either pulling forward orders to get ahead of tariffs or pushing out things because of the tariffs.

但是，你是否也看到了——我想，我們從其他一些人那裡聽說，也許有一些活動要么提前訂單以提前關稅，要么因為關稅而推遲一些事情。

And obviously, the deadlines have changed, and we've got another deadline coming up.

顯然，截止日期已經改變，我們還有另一個截止日期。

I guess the question is, what effect may have that had on order patterns as you went through the quarter?

我想問題是，當你經歷這個季度時，這對訂單模式可能有什麼影響？

Yes, I think it's hard for us to actually distinguish that specifically.

是的，我認為我們很難具體區分它。

But the one thing that we did see was distributors did get more cautious on their inventory late in the quarter, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks.

但我們確實看到的一件事是，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，分銷商在本季度末確實對他們的庫存更加謹慎。

And I think that kind of coupled with the signs of weakness that we saw in China has really led us to the belief that that's part of the caution that they're seeing from a trade tensions standpoint.

而且我認為這種情況加上我們在中國看到的疲軟跡象確實讓我們相信這是他們從貿易緊張局勢的角度看到的謹慎的一部分。

That'll be from Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

那將來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

This is Jeriel on behalf of Ross.

我是代表羅斯的 Jeriel。

I just have a quick question on -- you mentioned consignment transition.

我只是有一個簡短的問題——你提到了寄售過渡。

Is there -- could you quantify an impact to the 1Q '19 guide and 2019 as a whole?

有沒有 - 你能量化對 1Q '19 指南和整個 2019 年的影響嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'd say, Jeriel, is the -- we saw probably about $50 million impact in the fourth quarter.

我想說，Jeriel，我們在第四季度看到了大約 5000 萬美元的影響。

In the third quarter, and Rafael, you can remind me, it was about $20 million, $30 million...

在第三季度，拉斐爾，你可以提醒我，大約是 2000 萬、3000 萬美元……

Yes, in the third quarter.

是的，在第三季度。

In the third quarter of 2018.

2018年第三季度。

We'd expect as we go through next year that, that impact to be about in that range.

我們預計，隨著明年的到來，這種影響將在該範圍內。

And by the end of the year, we should have that next phase fully deployed.

到今年年底，我們應該全面部署下一階段。

You have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

There's been some questions about end markets.

關於終端市場存在一些問題。

I just want to ask in a different way.

我只是想換個方式問問。

Could you just talk about quarter-on-quarter what the end markets did, specifically focusing on the fourth quarter?

您能否談談終端市場的季度環比情況，特別是第四季度？

Certainly, yes.

當然，是的。

So industrial declined upper-single digits, and I'd just say those declines were broad-based.

所以工業下降了上個位數，我只是說這些下降是廣泛的。

Automotive declined upper-single digits with all sectors decreasing.

汽車行業的跌幅均高於個位數，所有行業均出現下滑。

Personal electronics declined low-double digits.

個人電子產品下降了兩位數。

Comms equipment grew single digits, and enterprise systems declined.

通信設備增長個位數，企業系統下降。

And that'll be from Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets.

這將來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess 2 questions from me as well.

我想我也有 2 個問題。

First off, when I look at the March quarter guide, the implication is revenues will decline from 1% in December year-over-year to about 8% in March.

首先，當我查看 3 月季度指南時，這意味著收入將從 12 月的同比下降 1% 下降到 3 月的 8% 左右。

What is driving that acceleration in revenue declines?

是什麼導致收入加速下降？

Is there a couple of end markets you would specifically call out that's driving it, where perhaps the challenge was adjusting aggressively or is it more or less broad-based?

是否有幾個終端市場是您要特別提到的驅動它的地方，挑戰可能是在積極調整，還是或多或少是廣泛的？

Yes, Amit.

是的，阿米特。

When we give our guidance, we don't do it by end markets unless there's something specific that is going on that kind of would be discontinuous with how things are operating.

當我們給出我們的指導時，我們不會通過終端市場來做，除非有一些特定的事情正在發生，這種事情與事情的運作方式是不連續的。

So we'll finish up the quarter and let that -- it will provide the details by end markets then.

因此，我們將完成本季度並讓它 - 屆時它將按終端市場提供詳細信息。

But clearly, the weakness that we saw in the third quarter continued into the fourth.

但很明顯，我們在第三季度看到的疲軟一直持續到第四季度。

Obviously, that will continue, and we expect that to continue into first.

顯然，這種情況會繼續下去，我們希望這種情況會繼續下去。

Yes.

是的。

And just to add to that, as we said in the prepared remarks and during the call, we think this weakness is primarily due to the semiconductor cycle.

除此之外，正如我們在準備好的評論和電話會議中所說，我們認為這種疲軟主要是由於半導體週期。

We've grown for third quarters in a -- 10 quarters in a row, and that's the sort of thing that happens in the semiconductor industry.

我們已經連續第三個季度增長——連續 10 個季度，這就是半導體行業正在發生的事情。

And in addition to that, the macroenvironment, including the trade tensions, could also be having an impact and could affect the depth and the duration of this downturn.

除此之外，包括貿易緊張局勢在內的宏觀環境也可能產生影響，並可能影響這次衰退的深度和持續時間。

That's right.

這是正確的。

You have a follow-on, Amit?

你有後續嗎，阿米特？

I do.

我願意。

In the past, you have talked about your ability to keep picking up 30, 40, 50 -- 30 to 40 basis points of share across your end markets.

過去，您曾談到您有能力在終端市場中持續獲得 30、40、50 - 30 到 40 個基點的份額。

As you look at '19, where revenue or broader industry trends are somewhat more challenging, is it easier for a larger analog company to pick up more market share?

回顧 19 年，收入或更廣泛的行業趨勢更具挑戰性，大型模擬公司是否更容易獲得更多市場份額？

Or is it more difficult for you guys?

還是對你們來說更難？

How would you kind of stack that up?

你會怎麼把它堆起來？

Yes.

是的。

I think when you look at the quality of the opportunity in the Analog and Embedded space, market share just doesn't move quickly across any of our peers in these marketplaces, and I think that just really speaks to the quality of that opportunity.

我認為，當您查看模擬和嵌入式領域的機會質量時，市場份額並沒有在這些市場中的任何同行中快速移動，我認為這確實說明了機會的質量。

So we continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are our manufacturing and technology, we talked about earlier, the breadth of our product portfolio, the reach of our market channels which includes our sales force and the size of it but also our presence at TI.com and then diversity and longevity.

因此，我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即我們的製造和技術，我們之前談到過，我們的產品組合的廣度，我們的市場渠道的覆蓋範圍，包括我們的銷售隊伍和規模，以及我們在TI.com，然後是多樣性和長壽。

So we're not dependent on any particular customer or product or technology to drive that revenue.

因此，我們不依賴任何特定的客戶、產品或技術來推動收入增長。

So we're working and investing to make those stronger.

因此，我們正在努力並進行投資以使其更強大。

It's just hard to pick up market share.

很難獲得市場份額。

I can tell you that everyone here at TI will be focused on that even as we go through the downturn and probably have even more diligence and intensity around that overall.

我可以告訴你，TI 的每個人都將專注於此，即使我們正在經歷低迷時期，並且可能會更加努力和專注於整體。

But again, if we could make that number higher, we absolutely would, but it is a hard thing to move.

但同樣，如果我們能讓這個數字更高，我們絕對會，但這是一件很難改變的事情。

So with that, let me turn it over to Rafael to add some final comments.

因此，讓我將其轉交給 Rafael 添加一些最後的評論。

All right.

好的。

So let me finish with a few comments on some key items for you to remember.

最後，讓我對一些關鍵項目發表一些評論，供您記住。

First, during this period of weaker demand, we will stay focused on what will make us stronger long term and diligent in the short term.

首先，在這段需求疲軟的時期，我們將繼續專注於讓我們長期變得更強大、在短期內更加勤奮的事情。

Second, we will remain focused on Analog and Embedded, the best products; and industrial and automotive, the best markets.

第二，我們將繼續專注於模擬和嵌入式，最好的產品；以及工業和汽車，最好的市場。

Third, we will continue to be disciplined in executing our capital management strategy and remain committed to returning all free cash flow to the owners of the company.

第三，我們將繼續嚴格執行我們的資本管理戰略，並繼續致力於將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

Again, please plan to join us for our Capital Management call on February 5 at 10 a.m.

同樣，請計劃於 2 月 5 日上午 10 點參加我們的資本管理電話會議。

Central Time.

中部時間。

A replay of this call is available on our website.

我們的網站上提供了此次通話的重播。

Good evening.

晚上好。

That does conclude our conference call for today, everyone.

大家今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you all for your participation.

謝謝大家的參與。

You may now disconnect your lines.

您現在可以斷開線路。