德州儀器 (TXN) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，感謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the Texas Instruments Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Release Conference Call.

歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 2018 年第三季度收益發布電話會議。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dave Pahl.

現在，我想將會議轉交給 Dave Pahl 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2018 earnings conference call.

下午好，感謝您參加我們 2018 年第三季度的收益電話會議。

Rafael Lizardi, TI's Chief Financial Officer, is with me today.

TI 的首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 今天和我在一起。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

對於錯過該版本的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

此電話正在網絡上直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。

A replay will be available through the web.

重播將通過網絡提供。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

此電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

我們鼓勵您查看有關今天發布的收益發布中包含的前瞻性陳述的通知以及 TI 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

I'll start with a quick summary of our financial results.

我將從快速總結我們的財務結果開始。

Revenue for the third quarter increased 4% from a year ago.

第三季度收入同比增長 4%。

However, demand for our products slowed across most markets during the quarter.

然而，本季度大多數市場對我們產品的需求放緩。

Earnings per share were $1.58.

每股收益為 1.58 美元。

In our core businesses, Analog revenue grew 8% and Embedded Processing revenue declined 4% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

在我們的核心業務中，與去年同期相比，模擬收入增長了 8%，嵌入式處理收入下降了 4%。

Analog and Embedded performed about the same directionally within most end markets, with communications equipment as the exception.

模擬和嵌入式在大多數終端市場中的表現大致相同，通信設備除外。

In communications equipment, Analog products saw double-digit growth, which included early 5G product ramps while Embedded products declined from a year ago as we expected.

在通信設備方面，模擬產品實現了兩位數的增長，其中包括早期 5G 產品的增長，而嵌入式產品如我們預期的那樣較一年前有所下降。

Without the decline in communications equipment, Embedded would've grown.

如果沒有通信設備的衰退，Embedded 就會增長。

With that backdrop, I'll provide details on our performance, which we believe continues to be representative of the ongoing strength of our business model.

在此背景下，我將提供有關我們業績的詳細信息，我們認為這將繼續代表我們業務模式的持續優勢。

In the third quarter, our cash flow from operations was $2.1 billion.

第三季度，我們的運營現金流為 21 億美元。

We believe that free cash flow growth, especially on a per-share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term.

我們認為，自由現金流的增長，尤其是每股增長，對於實現股東價值的長期最大化最為重要。

Free cash flow for the trailing 12-month period was $5.9 billion, up 40% from a year ago.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 59 億美元，比一年前增長 40%。

Free cash flow margin for the same period was 37.5% of revenue.

同期自由現金流利潤率為收入的 37.5%。

We continue to benefit from the quality of our product portfolio that's long-lived and diverse and the efficiency of our manufacturing strategy, the latter of which includes our growing 300-millimeter Analog output.

我們繼續受益於我們經久耐用且多樣化的產品組合的質量以及我們製造戰略的效率，後者包括我們不斷增長的 300 毫米模擬輸出。

We believe that free cash flow will only be valued if it's productively invested in the business or returned to owners.

我們認為，只有將自由現金流有效地投資於企業或返還給所有者，它才會受到重視。

For the trailing 12-month period, we returned $6.2 billion of cash to owners through a combination of dividends and stock repurchases.

在過去的 12 個月期間，我們通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式向所有者返還了 62 億美元現金。

In September, we announced we would increase our dividend by 24% and we increased our share repurchase authorizations by $12 billion.

9 月，我們宣布將股息提高 24%，並將股票回購授權增加 120 億美元。

Taken together, these reflect our commitment to return all of our free cash flow to our owners.

總而言之，這些反映了我們將所有自由現金流返還給所有者的承諾。

I'll provide some details by segment.

我將按細分提供一些詳細信息。

From the year-ago quarter, Analog revenue grew 8% due to Power and Signal Chain.

與去年同期相比，由於電源和信號鏈，模擬收入增長了 8%。

High Volume declined.

高成交量下降。

Embedded Processing revenue decreased by 4% from the year-ago quarter due to Processors.

由於處理器，嵌入式處理收入比去年同期下降 4%。

Connected Microcontroller was about even.

Connected Microcontroller 幾乎持平。

In our Other segment, revenue declined 6%, primarily due to custom products, as we expected.

正如我們預期的那樣，在我們的其他部門，收入下降了 6%，主要是由於定制產品。

Now I'll provide some insight into this quarter's performance by end market versus a year ago.

現在，我將提供一些關於終端市場與一年前相比本季度表現的見解。

Industrial demand slowed to upper-single digit growth, with most sectors growing year on year.

工業需求放緩至個位數以上的增長，大多數行業同比增長。

Automotive grew double digits from a year ago but the growth slowed from previous quarters.

汽車行業同比增長兩位數，但增速較前幾個季度有所放緩。

We continue to focus our investments across 14 sectors in industrial and 5 sectors in automotive.

我們繼續專注於 14 個工業領域和 5 個汽車領域的投資。

We believe these investments will continue to deliver broad-based and diverse revenue growth over the long term.

我們相信，從長遠來看，這些投資將繼續帶來基礎廣泛和多樣化的收入增長。

Personal electronics declined mid-single digits as increases at some customers were offset by declines in others.

由於一些客戶的增長被其他客戶的下降所抵消，個人電子產品下降了中個位數。

Communications Equipment increased low-single digits from a year ago as Analog, which included the early 5G product ramps I mentioned earlier, grew and was offset by declines in Embedded.

通信設備比一年前增長了低個位數，因為包括我之前提到的早期 5G 產品斜坡在內的模擬增長並被嵌入式的下降所抵消。

And lastly, enterprise systems grew.

最後，企業系統發展壯大。

In summary, we continue to focus our strategy on the industrial and automotive markets where we've been allocating our capital and driving our initiatives to strengthen our position.

總而言之，我們繼續將我們的戰略重點放在工業和汽車市場上，我們一直在這些市場上配置我們的資本並推動我們的舉措以加強我們的地位。

This is based on a belief that industrial and automotive will be the fastest-growing semiconductor markets.

這是基於這樣一種信念，即工業和汽車將成為增長最快的半導體市場。

They have increasing semiconductor content and these markets provide diversity and longevity.

它們的半導體含量不斷增加，這些市場提供多樣性和長壽。

All of this translates to a high terminal value of our portfolio.

所有這些都轉化為我們投資組合的高終值。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Rafael?

拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.8 billion or 65.8% of revenue.

本季度毛利為 28 億美元，佔收入的 65.8%。

From a year ago, gross profit increased primarily due to higher revenue.

與一年前相比，毛利潤增加主要是由於收入增加。

Gross profit margin increased 130 basis points.

毛利率上升130個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $786 million, about even from a year ago and about as expected.

本季度的運營支出為 7.86 億美元，與一年前持平，與預期基本持平。

On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 20.4% of revenue, within our range of expectations.

在過去 12 個月的基礎上，運營費用佔收入的 20.4%，在我們的預期範圍內。

Over the last 12 months, we have invested $1.55 billion in R&D.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們在研發上投入了 15.5 億美元。

We are pleased with our disciplined process of allocating capital to R&D that allows us to continue to grow our top line and gain market share.

我們對將資本分配給研發的嚴格流程感到滿意，這使我們能夠繼續增加我們的收入並獲得市場份額。

Acquisition charges, a non-cash expense, were $80 million.

收購費用是一項非現金支出，為 8000 萬美元。

Acquisition charges will be about $80 million per quarter through the third quarter of 2019, then decline to about $50 million per quarter for two remaining years.

到 2019 年第三季度，收購費用將達到每季度約 8000 萬美元，然後在剩餘兩年內降至每季度約 5000 萬美元。

Operating profit was $1.94 billion or 45.5% of revenue.

營業利潤為 19.4 億美元，佔收入的 45.5%。

Operating profit was up 8% from the year-ago quarter.

營業利潤比去年同期增長 8%。

Operating margin for Analog was 49.8%, up from 47% a year ago.

Analog 的營業利潤率為 49.8%，高於一年前的 47%。

And for Embedded Processing, it was 34.6%, down from 34.9% a year ago.

而對於嵌入式處理，這一比例為 34.6%，低於一年前的 34.9%。

Our focused investments on the best sustainable growth opportunities with differentiated positions will enable both businesses to continue to contribute nicely to free cash flow growth over the long term.

我們專注於具有差異化定位的最佳可持續增長機會的投資將使兩家公司能夠繼續為長期的自由現金流增長做出良好貢獻。

Net income in the third quarter was $1.57 billion or $1.58 per share.

第三季度淨收入為 15.7 億美元或每股 1.58 美元。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我從我們的現金生成開始評論我們的資本管理結果。

Cash flow from operations was $2.11 billion in the quarter.

本季度運營現金流為 21.1 億美元。

It increased $384 million from the year-ago quarter, primarily due to a lower tax rate and higher revenue, which includes more 300-millimeter Analog revenue.

它比去年同期增加了 3.84 億美元，這主要是由於較低的稅率和較高的收入，其中包括更多的 300 毫米模擬收入。

Capital expenditures were $370 million in the quarter.

本季度的資本支出為 3.7 億美元。

Free cash flow was $5.93 billion on a trailing 12-month basis, up 40% from a year ago.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 59.3 億美元，比一年前增長 40%。

In the third quarter, we paid $602 million in dividends and repurchased $1.2 billion of our stock for a total return of $1.8 billion in the third quarter.

第三季度，我們支付了 6.02 億美元的股息並回購了 12 億美元的股票，第三季度的總回報為 18 億美元。

We have returned $6.23 billion to owners in the past 12 months, consistent with our strategy to return to owners all of our free cash flow.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們已經向所有者返還了 62.3 億美元，這與我們將所有自由現金流返還給所有者的戰略是一致的。

Over the same period, our dividends represented 41% of free cash flow, underscoring their sustainability.

同期，我們的股息佔自由現金流的 41%，凸顯了它們的可持續性。

As Dave mentioned already, in September, we announced we would increase our dividend by 24%, and we increased our share repurchase authorizations by $12 billion.

正如 Dave 已經提到的，我們在 9 月份宣布將股息提高 24%，並將股票回購授權增加 120 億美元。

Our quarterly dividend went from $0.62 to $0.77 or $3.08 annualized.

我們的季度股息從 0.62 美元增加到 0.77 美元或年化 3.08 美元。

This is our 15th consecutive year of dividend increases.

這是我們連續第 15 年增加股息。

And over the past five years, we have increased our quarterly dividend by a compounded average rate of 21%.

在過去五年中，我們以 21% 的複合平均增長率增加了季度股息。

Our total outstanding repurchase authorization was about $18.2 billion at the end of third quarter.

截至第三季度末，我們未完成的回購授權總額約為 182 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $5.11 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第三季度末有 51.1 億美元的現金和短期投資。

Total debt is $5.1 billion with a weighted average coupon of 2.77%.

總債務為 51 億美元，加權平均息票率為 2.77%。

Inventory days were 131, up 13 days from a year ago and within our expected range.

庫存天數為 131 天，比一年前增加 13 天，在我們的預期範圍內。

We continue to believe there is strategic value in owning and controlling our inventory.

我們仍然相信擁有和控制我們的庫存具有戰略價值。

In the third quarter, we began the next phase of our consignment program with our distributors, and implementation will continue through the end of 2019.

在第三季度，我們開始了與經銷商的下一階段寄售計劃，實施將持續到 2019 年底。

Turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.6 billion to $3.9 billion, and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.14 to $1.34.

談到我們對第四季度的展望，我們預計 TI 收入在 36 億美元至 39 億美元之間，每股收益在 1.14 美元至 1.34 美元之間。

We continue to expect our ongoing annual operating tax rate to be about 20% in 2018 and about 16% starting in 2019.

我們繼續預計 2018 年我們的持續年度營業稅率約為 20%，從 2019 年開始約為 16%。

Just as a reminder, the higher tax rate this year is due to non-cash charges.

提醒一下，今年較高的稅率是由於非現金費用。

To help you with your model for 2019, we are providing the quarterly discrete tax benefits and tax rates for the year.

為了幫助您建立 2019 年的模型，我們提供了當年的季度離散稅收優惠和稅率。

We expect a discrete tax benefit of $20 million in the first quarter, $10 million in the second and third quarters and $5 million in the fourth.

我們預計第一季度的離散稅收優惠為 2000 萬美元，第二和第三季度為 1000 萬美元，第四季度為 500 萬美元。

Therefore, the effective tax rate would be 15% for the first quarter and 16% in the second, third and fourth quarters.

因此，第一季度的實際稅率為15%，第二、三、四季度為16%。

These details of our expectations for taxes can also be found on the IR website under Financial Summary Data.

我們對稅收預期的這些詳細信息也可以在 IR 網站上的“財務摘要數據”下找到。

In closing, the strength of our business model has been demonstrated over the past 15 years through up and down markets.

最後，我們商業模式的實力在過去 15 年的漲跌市場中得到了證明。

We are heading into a softer market and we plan to execute as we have in the past.

我們正在進入一個疲軟的市場，我們計劃像過去一樣執行。

First, we will be disciplined with our operating plan.

首先，我們將遵守我們的運營計劃。

We will reduce wafer starts.

我們將減少晶圓啟動。

However, inventory days will rise above our range as we strategically build low-volume, long-lived products and implement the latest phase of our consignment program.

然而，隨著我們戰略性地生產小批量、長壽命的產品並實施我們寄售計劃的最新階段，庫存天數將超過我們的範圍。

Second, we will continue our R&D investment levels and plans, which have a long-term focus.

第二，我們將繼續我們的研發投入水平和計劃，這是一個長期的重點。

Third, we will be thoughtful with SG&A.

第三，我們會考慮 SG&A。

There are important areas of investments that increase our competitive advantages like our demand creation initiative, and this will remain unchanged.

有一些重要的投資領域可以增加我們的競爭優勢，比如我們的需求創造計劃，這將保持不變。

In other areas of SG&A, we will be prudent as appropriate.

在 SG&A 的其他領域，我們將酌情謹慎。

And lastly, we are planning our next phase of 300-millimeter capacity expansion to be available as soon as 2020 or 2021.

最後，我們計劃在 2020 年或 2021 年進行下一階段的 300 毫米產能擴張。

A slowdown will have little effect on our timing to get the next 300-millimeter factory shell in place.

放緩對我們安排下一個 300 毫米工廠外殼的時間影響不大。

In conclusion, we are focused on the best products, Analog and Embedded Processing, and the best markets, industrial and automotive, which will enable us to grow free cash flow per share for the long time to come.

總之，我們專注於最好的產品、模擬和嵌入式處理，以及最好的市場、工業和汽車，這將使我們能夠在未來很長一段時間內增加每股自由現金流。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael.

謝謝，拉斐爾。

Operator, you can now open the lines up for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開問題熱線了。

(Operator Instructions) Operator?

（操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

First, I wanted to ask about drivers of gross margin in the next quarter.

首先，我想問一下下一季度毛利率的驅動因素。

You mentioned a few things, you're going to reduce wafer starts but inventory days are also going to rise.

你提到了幾件事，你將減少晶圓啟動，但庫存天數也會增加。

You mentioned your 300-millimeter next phase coming on, which suggests CapEx continues to be elevated so depreciation goes up.

你提到你的 300 毫米下一階段即將到來，這表明資本支出繼續增加，因此折舊上升。

I just wondered if you could give us a little bit more color on the different drivers as we get into Q4 and how we should think about those drivers evolving into 2019 and beyond as some of them are longer term?

我只是想知道，當我們進入第四季度時，您是否可以給我們更多關於不同驅動因素的顏色，以及我們應該如何考慮這些驅動因素發展到 2019 年及以後，因為其中一些驅動因素是長期的？

Yes, Stacy, let me take that.

是的，斯泰西，讓我接受。

The big picture of fall-through on our revenue is the same as it has been before.

我們收入下降的大局與以前一樣。

70% to 75% is what we have talked about and that applies on going up, it also applies going down.

70% 到 75% 就是我們講的，上升也適用，下降也適用。

So that's what we would expect.

這就是我們所期望的。

Of course, that is over the long haul.

當然，這是長期的。

So any one quarter, it could be a little different.

所以任何一個季度，它都可能有點不同。

The other thing I would tell you, obviously, when we are increasing wafer starts, that is a help for gross margins and when we're decreasing wafer starts, it's a headwind on gross margins.

我要告訴你的另一件事，顯然，當我們增加晶圓啟動時，這對毛利率有幫助，而當我們減少晶圓啟動時，這是毛利率的不利因素。

So you will see that and you should expect that.

所以你會看到這一點，你應該期待這一點。

You have a follow-up?

你有跟進嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I guess, how do you continue to build inventory going forward if you're reducing wafer starts?

所以我想，如果你減少晶圓啟動，你如何繼續建立庫存？

How does that work?

這是如何運作的？

Yes.

是的。

So it depends on how much you reduce wafer starts depending on the revenue change, right?

所以這取決於你根據收入變化減少多少晶圓啟動，對吧？

And also it depends on the timing of that.

這也取決於時間安排。

Wafer cycle times can be anywhere between 12 to 16 weeks.

晶圓周期時間可以在 12 到 16 週之間的任何時間。

It doesn't change on a dime.

它不會改變一毛錢。

But the key point on keeping those, the wafer starts, at a level that even though we are reducing them, but we can still build those long-lived inventory buffers for industrial and automotive.

但保持這些的關鍵點，晶圓開始，即使我們正在減少它們，但我們仍然可以為工業和汽車建立那些長期存在的庫存緩衝區。

Those are low-risk buffers.

這些是低風險緩衝區。

Those parts live for a long, long time and they enable us to then support our customers on the other side of this slowdown.

這些部件可以使用很長時間，它們使我們能夠在經濟放緩的另一端為我們的客戶提供支持。

So overall, it's just a better way and a smart way to allocate our capital.

因此，總的來說，這只是一種更好、更聰明的方式來分配我們的資金。

Yes.

是的。

And I'll just add to that, Stacy, that not only will we build that strategic inventory of low-volume parts but we're also, as we talked about in the prepared remarks, moving a larger proportion of our revenues to consignment.

我還要補充一點，Stacy，我們不僅會建立小批量零件的戰略庫存，而且正如我們在準備好的發言中談到的那樣，我們還將更大比例的收入轉移到寄售。

So both of those things will put pressure on inventory.

因此，這兩件事都會給庫存帶來壓力。

But we believe those are the right things to do long term.

但我們相信，從長遠來看，這些都是正確的做法。

So thanks, Stacy.

所以謝謝，斯泰西。

And we'll now hear from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

我們現在將聽到 John Pitzer 與 Crédit Suisse 的對話。

Dave, just relative to your comments in the prepared remarks about Embedded in the comms space, can you help us sort of quantify the size of that business now?

戴夫，就你在準備好的關於通信領域嵌入式的評論中的評論而言，你能幫我們量化一下現在該業務的規模嗎？

And is that at all influencing the guide for the December quarter?

這是否會影響 12 月季度的指南？

Okay, yes.

好的，是的。

So let me take you back to our capital management strategy back in February.

那麼讓我帶你回到我們二月份的資本管理戰略。

And if you look back even over the past few years, we've been talking about how we're allocating R&D just through an end market view.

如果你回顧過去幾年，我們一直在談論我們如何通過終端市場的觀點來分配研發。

So as you walk through that, no surprise that industrial and automotive, we've been taking our allocation of R&D up there.

因此，當你走過這一點時，工業和汽車領域就不足為奇了，我們一直在那里分配研發。

In personal electronics, no surprise there.

在個人電子產品領域，這不足為奇。

It's down, but it's more selective, it's not zero.

它下降了，但它更具選擇性，它不是零。

We still find good opportunities.

我們仍然可以找到很好的機會。

And then comms equipment really has been a different story on Analog than it has been on Embedded.

然後通訊設備在模擬上的情況與在嵌入式上的情況確實不同。

And we've long talked about in Embedded that we've taken our spend there up.

我們長期以來一直在嵌入式領域談論我們已經在那裡投入了資金。

In Analog and Embedded, we've actually taken it down.

在模擬和嵌入式中，我們實際上已經把它取下來了。

The reason why is that when you look at 5G, there are what's new and what operators need and the OEMs that are delivering that new standard creates more complexity in the radio.

原因是，當你看 5G 時，有什麼是新的，運營商需要什麼，而提供新標準的原始設備製造商在無線電中創造了更多的複雜性。

And for us, that translates to more analog content and more opportunity.

對我們來說，這意味著更多模擬內容和更多機會。

The new 5G standards really don't change things much from a digital standpoint.

從數字的角度來看，新的 5G 標準確實沒有太大改變。

So we've got a good position there that's not -- that isn't something that we've needed to invest in.

所以我們在那裡有一個很好的位置 - 這不是我們需要投資的東西。

So really, what we are seeing is just the result as that rolls out.

所以真的，我們所看到的只是推出的結果。

So we're confident in our 5G position as that market begins to grow.

因此，隨著市場開始增長，我們對我們的 5G 地位充滿信心。

And we also have a great 4G business and we're still shipping some 3G stuff.

我們也有很棒的 4G 業務，我們仍在運送一些 3G 產品。

So we're convinced that the majority of our growth is still going to come longer term from industrial and automotive.

因此，我們相信，從長遠來看，我們的大部分增長仍將來自工業和汽車行業。

But we'll -- comms equipment will be a very good market for us for long periods of time.

但我們會——在很長一段時間內，通信設備對我們來說將是一個非常好的市場。

Do you have a follow-up, John?

你有後續行動嗎，約翰？

Dave, I guess my question specifically is, is there another shortfall in revenue coming in Embedded comms in the calendar fourth quarter?

戴夫，我想我的問題具體是，第四季度嵌入式通信的收入是否還會出現短缺？

Because it looks like it was at least, on a year-over-year basis, about $40 million in the calendar third quarter, if your comments about Embedded growing ex comms is correct, if I'm doing the math right.

因為它看起來至少與去年同期相比，日曆第三季度大約有 4000 萬美元，如果你對嵌入式增長的 ex comms 的評論是正確的，如果我做的數學是正確的。

Is that -- is there more to come in the calendar fourth quarter?

那是 - 日曆第四季度還會有更多嗎？

Or is this now behind us?

或者這已經過去了？

Yes.

是的。

So last year, comms equipment was 12% of our revenues in total.

所以去年，通訊設備占我們總收入的 12%。

And I would say that, if you have listened to the commentary, which I'm sure you did, it was the one market that actually grew inside of the quarter, right?

我想說的是，如果你聽過評論，我相信你聽過，這是一個在本季度內實際增長的市場，對吧？

So we saw year-on-year growth in communications equipment in total even though that was not contributed by the Embedded business.

因此，我們看到通信設備總量同比增長，儘管這不是嵌入式業務的貢獻。

So yes, those things are in our guidance going forward.

所以是的，這些事情在我們未來的指導中。

I think our guidance is more influenced by the fact that we are seeing most of the markets beginning to slow versus the specifics of what's going on inside of comms equipment.

我認為我們的指導更多地受到我們看到大多數市場開始放緩這一事實的影響，而不是通信設備內部正在發生的事情的具體情況。

So thank you, John.

所以謝謝你，約翰。

Chris Danely with Citigroup, please go ahead.

花旗集團的 Chris Danely，請繼續。

Just a little more color maybe on the slowdown.

減速可能只是多一點顏色。

When you talk to your customers or the distys, does it feel like things could get a little bit worse?

當您與您的客戶或不滿意的人交談時，是否感覺事情會變得更糟？

And then maybe which -- it sounds like comms looks a little bit better, which of the end markets has fallen off the most?

然後也許哪個 - 聽起來通信看起來好一點，哪個終端市場跌幅最大？

Yes, let me start and see if Rafael wants to add anything.

是的，讓我開始看看 Rafael 是否要添加任何內容。

So Chris, I think that it's always best when you enter a period like this, we just kind of stick to the facts of what we can see, what we can measure.

所以克里斯，我認為進入這樣的時期總是最好的，我們只是堅持我們可以看到的事實，我們可以衡量的事實。

We just turned in 4% growth year-over-year.

我們剛剛實現了 4% 的同比增長。

If you take the midpoint of our guidance, revenues would be flat.

如果你採用我們指導的中點，收入將持平。

So that's a different number than what we've just delivered inside of this quarter.

所以這與我們剛剛在本季度內交付的數字不同。

So where it goes from there and how long it lasts are just things that we don't know.

所以它從那裡去哪里以及它持續多久只是我們不知道的事情。

We will be in a position with what we're doing with wafer starts that if it's a more shallow correction, we'll be prepared to support it on the other side.

我們將在晶圓啟動方面處於一個位置，如果它是一個更淺的修正，我們將準備在另一邊支持它。

If it's longer lived, we will be moderate -- monitoring our wafer starts on a daily basis, and we know how to react in those situations.

如果它的壽命更長，我們將保持溫和——每天監控我們的晶圓啟動，我們知道如何在這些情況下做出反應。

Yes, let me answer that and I'll just frankly just emphasize what Dave said, he covered it very well already.

是的，讓我回答這個問題，坦率地說，我只是強調戴夫所說的，他已經講得很好了。

But most end markets have slowed, that's what we know.

但大多數終端市場已經放緩，這就是我們所知道的。

And we believe this is mostly driven by a slowdown in semiconductors, meaning we really can't speak to any macro driven event here.

我們認為這主要是由半導體行業放緩所驅動的，這意味著我們真的不能在這裡談論任何宏觀驅動的事件。

As we have said before, the direct effect of the tariffs for us in any of the trade issues is minimal.

正如我們之前所說，關稅對我們在任何貿易問題上的直接影響都是微乎其微的。

It's really not there.

它真的不在那裡。

So all we can judge is by what we see right in front of us, what our customers, the signal they send us, and that's what we are basing this on.

所以我們所能判斷的就是我們在我們面前看到的東西，我們的客戶，他們向我們發送的信號，這就是我們的基礎。

In addition to that, as Dave said, the key thing here is what we do with the operating plan so that we put ourselves in a position so that if this is shallow, we can very quickly ramp back up and support growth.

除此之外，正如 Dave 所說，這裡的關鍵是我們對運營計劃所做的工作，以便我們將自己置於一個位置，這樣如果這很淺，我們可以很快恢復並支持增長。

If it's not shallow, if it actually goes the other way, we are also in a position where we can make additional adjustments to just continue to do the right thing from a free cash flow standpoint and from an operating plan standpoint.

如果它不淺，如果它實際上是相反的，我們也可以做出額外的調整，從自由現金流的角度和運營計劃的角度繼續做正確的事情。

On the investment side, as I said during our prepared remarks, we are not going to change anything on R&D.

在投資方面，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們不會在研發方面做出任何改變。

SG&A will be prudent and then on 300-millimeter, we're going to continue with the plans to continue expanding that, strengthening the competitive advantage.

SG&A 將是謹慎的，然後在 300 毫米上，我們將繼續計劃繼續擴大，加強競爭優勢。

Do you have a follow-on, Chris?

你有後續嗎，克里斯？

Yes.

是的。

I guess, not talking about the future, but just given what's happened to you up until now.

我想，不是談論未來，而是考慮到你到目前為止發生的事情。

What would you attribute the cause of the slowdown?

您認為經濟放緩的原因是什麼？

Is it just overall demand?

只是整體需求嗎？

Is it tariffs?

是關稅嗎？

Is it China?

是中國嗎？

Is it too much inventory?

是不是存貨太多了？

Anything more specific on just a slowdown in semis?

有什麼更具體的關於半決賽放緩的事情嗎？

What are the customers or distys telling you, I guess?

我猜客戶或 distys 告訴你什麼？

Yes, Chris, I think that kind of reiterating what Rafael said and maybe add a little color is that we believe that's mostly driven by a slowdown in the semiconductor market just after several years of strong growth.

是的，克里斯，我認為這種重申拉斐爾所說的話並可能添加一點顏色是我們認為這主要是由半導體市場在經歷了幾年的強勁增長後放緩所推動的。

It doesn't preclude that there aren't other things and other factors and macro things that are going on.

這並不排除沒有其他事情、其他因素和宏觀事情正在發生。

Certainly, as the quarters evolve, those things will become more obvious of what role that they'll play.

當然，隨著宿舍的發展，這些事情將變得更加明顯，它們將扮演什麼角色。

But that's where -- we'll just stick to what we can see and what we know.

但這就是——我們只會堅持我們能看到的和我們知道的。

So thank you, Chris.

所以謝謝你，克里斯。

Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

I guess I wanted to hit it from a lead time perspective.

我想我想從交貨時間的角度來看它。

David, doesn't seem like you're going to give terribly more color on it.

大衛，你似乎不會在上面添加更多顏色。

But if it's short lead times and your lead times haven't really changed, it seems like it would be more of a demand than an inventory perspective.

但是，如果交貨時間很短並且您的交貨時間沒有真正改變，那麼它似乎更多的是需求而不是庫存角度。

So any color you could give on that?

那麼你可以給它任何顏色嗎？

And then maybe even geographically, is there any color about one market acting differently than any of the others?

然後甚至可能在地理上，一個市場的行為與其他市場有什麼不同嗎？

Yes, Ross.

是的，羅斯。

Let me just comment on a few of the things that we can see.

讓我就我們可以看到的一些事情發表評論。

And certainly, we watch all those indicators.

當然，我們會觀察所有這些指標。

And to kind of start with where I want to end is the best indicator that we get are orders from customers that we get directly as well as you know we've got 60% of our revenues on consignment where we actually have demand feeds that customers are telling us what they plan to build.

從我想結束的地方開始是我們得到的最好的指標是我們直接從客戶那裡得到的訂單，而且你知道我們有 60% 的收入來自寄售，我們實際上有客戶的需求正在告訴我們他們計劃建造什麼。

And those clearly are the best signals that we can see.

這些顯然是我們能看到的最好信號。

Our outlook will be built on that.

我們的展望將以此為基礎。

And certainly, those indicators show that demand slowed across most of the end markets during the quarter.

當然，這些指標表明本季度大多數終端市場的需求放緩。

And that's why you see the guidance as it is, the sentiment that kind of as we are working through things here.

這就是為什麼你會看到指南的原樣，就像我們在這里處理事情時的那種情緒。

So when you look at the other indicators that we see, so things like distributor inventory, it's up slightly but it's still running at about 4 weeks.

因此，當您查看我們看到的其他指標時，比如分銷商庫存，它略有上升，但仍在運行約 4 週。

Cancellations are up, but I would still describe them as running at low levels.

取消率上升了，但我仍然將它們描述為低水平運行。

Our lead times, as you mentioned, they have continued to remain stable.

正如您所提到的，我們的交貨時間一直保持穩定。

And it doesn't matter what period you're in, you're always going to have places where demand will be tight and we will work with customers on that.

而且無論你處於什麼時期，你總是會遇到需求緊張的地方，我們將與客戶合作。

But the vast majority of products have continued to be very, very stable from a lead time standpoint.

但從交貨時間的角度來看，絕大多數產品仍然非常非常穩定。

So that's kind of what we see.

這就是我們所看到的。

Regionally, I don't think when we look at our numbers, there's nothing there that we would call out specifically.

在區域方面，我不認為當我們查看我們的數字時，沒有什麼我們會特別指出的。

And also, just as a reminder, I know you know very well that we ship product into a particular region, it may get put into a subsystem or a system and then shipped into another region of the world.

而且，提醒一下，我知道你非常清楚我們將產品運送到特定地區，它可能會被放入子系統或系統，然後運送到世界的另一個地區。

So actually, looking at our demand by regional results really doesn't give much color on what's going on from a macro standpoint.

所以實際上，從區域結果來看我們的需求，從宏觀的角度來看，並不能說明正在發生的事情。

So you got a follow-on?

所以你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Just quickly, you haven't mentioned the automotive market in any short-term fashion.

很快，你沒有以任何短期方式提到汽車市場。

But that's been the market that probably has the biggest laundry list of headwinds from your customers and your customers' customers.

但這個市場可能擁有來自您的客戶和您客戶的客戶的最大不利因素清單。

Any color of what you're seeing in aggregate or on the 5 sub segments within it?

您所看到的整體或其中 5 個子部分的任何顏色？

Yes.

是的。

On Automotive, growth did slow there.

在汽車方面，那裡的增長確實放緩了。

But as you know, we've been growing very strongly and really for 5 years plus.

但正如你所知，我們已經非常強勁地增長了 5 年多。

So demand slowed but it still grew double digits, right?

所以需求放緩但仍然增長兩位數，對嗎？

So we saw that growth was broad-based.

所以我們看到增長是廣泛的。

It was across the sectors.

它跨越了各個領域。

But in aggregate, it did slow as well as the demand inside of industrial.

但總的來說，它確實減緩了工業內部的需求。

And so, okay?

所以，好嗎？

Well, thank you, Ross.

好吧，謝謝你，羅斯。

Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

喬摩爾與摩根士丹利。

I wonder if you can just -- I think just take one more cut at this demand question.

我想知道你是否可以——我想在這個需求問題上再削減一點。

I mean, when you guys are guiding for Q4, is the conservatism entirely just what you're seeing in your order book?

我的意思是，當你們指導第四季度時，保守主義是否完全就是您在訂單簿中看到的那樣？

And to what degree, when you see these automotive shortfalls at your customers and, to a lesser extent, industrial shortfalls of your customer, are you budgeting for that to maybe soften from where your current level of visibility is?

在多大程度上，當您看到客戶的這些汽車短缺，以及在較小程度上，您的客戶的工業短缺時，您是否正在為此做預算，以便從您當前的可見度水平開始緩和？

Or is that not the way you're looking at?

或者這不是你正在看的方式？

I'll just make a quick comment and turn it over to Dave, but I wouldn't categorize or characterize that guidance as conservative.

我將快速發表評論並將其轉交給戴夫，但我不會將該指南歸類或描述為保守的。

This is the best we know, based on the orders that we are getting from our customers and the best signal that we have.

根據我們從客戶那裡獲得的訂單和我們擁有的最佳信號，這是我們所知道的最好的情況。

And that range encompasses the best of our knowledge.

這個範圍涵蓋了我們所知道的最好的知識。

Yes, I think that's well said.

是的，我認為這說得好。

Do you have a follow-on, Joe?

你有後續嗎，喬？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

I mean, do you have a sense for, when you look at your third quarter, do you think your customers built inventory?

我的意思是，當您查看第三季度時，您是否認為您的客戶建立了庫存？

And did you see any people building ahead to get ahead of tariffs, either the 10% or the 25% tariff?

你有沒有看到有人提前建設以領先於關稅，無論是 10% 還是 25% 的關稅？

Just any indications that your inventories may have built and that some element of this softening is an inventory decline in Q4?

是否有任何跡象表明您的庫存可能已經增加，並且這種疲軟的某些因素是第四季度的庫存下降？

Just how are you thinking about those inventory levels?

您如何看待這些庫存水平？

Yes.

是的。

I'll point out or just remind you, Joe, because I know you know, we've got 60% of our revenues on consignment.

我會指出或只是提醒你，喬，因為我知道你知道，我們有 60% 的收入來自寄售。

So for that revenue, there isn't an inventory buffer at our customers that are in front of that.

因此，對於這筆收入，我們的客戶沒有庫存緩衝。

The demand that we're seeing is the actual -- as close to the factory order builds as you're going to get.

我們看到的需求是實際的——盡可能接近你將要獲得的工廠訂單。

Our visibility ends there, right?

我們的能見度到此為止，對吧？

So their demand downstream and downstream into their channels, of course we have no visibility on that front.

所以他們的需求下游和下游進入他們的渠道，當然我們在這方面沒有可見性。

So we are fairly early in the announcement schedule and line up, and so we will find out where that -- if there is inventory out there as more companies report.

因此，我們在公告時間表和排隊時間相當早，因此我們將找出它的位置 - 如果有更多公司報告的庫存。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We will go to Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們將和 BMO 一起去 Ambrish Srivastava。

So just, Dave, on the demand side, I just wanted to -- you guys have been through several cycles.

所以戴夫，在需求方面，我只是想——你們已經經歷了幾個週期。

I just wanted to make sure and you're currently calling out that you're telling us what you're seeing on the fact space.

我只是想確定一下，您目前正在大聲疾呼，您是在告訴我們您在事實空間中看到的內容。

But then these metrics like cancellations or debookings or what have you, is there a rate of change that you look at and say that you can give us any perspective on how deep it's going to be or what kind of duration this would turn into?

但是這些指標，比如取消或取消預訂，或者你有什麼，你有沒有看到一個變化率，並說你可以給我們任何關於它將有多深或這將變成什麼樣的持續時間的觀點？

I'll take a shot at that.

我會嘗試一下。

And Dave, you want to add to that.

戴夫，你想補充一下。

But frankly, no, we -- as Dave said, we have -- the visibility that we have is to the consignment inventory that's in front of us.

但坦率地說，不，我們——正如戴夫所說，我們擁有——我們所擁有的可見性是對我們面前的寄售庫存。

And by the way, that is inventory that is still in our books.

順便說一句，那是仍在我們賬簿中的庫存。

So we haven't recognized revenue for that.

所以我們還沒有確認收入。

So that's one advantage of having that consignment, that inventory like that.

所以這是擁有那種寄售品的一個優勢，那種庫存。

And so that's the data point we have, and we use that to forecast the next quarter's revenue.

這就是我們擁有的數據點，我們用它來預測下一季度的收入。

And the other data point is what Dave already mentioned, right, cancellations.

另一個數據點是戴夫已經提到的，對，取消。

They're up slightly but they continue at low levels and our lead times have remained stable.

它們略有上升，但仍處於低位，我們的交貨時間保持穩定。

Yes.

是的。

And I'll just say, things like distributor inventory, Ambrish, I'll point out, it's still around 4 weeks.

我只想說，分銷商庫存之類的東西，Ambrish，我會指出，它仍然在 4 週左右。

That's 1/2 to 1/3 of what many of our peers run with distributor inventory.

這是我們許多同行使用分銷商庫存的 1/2 到 1/3。

And as we implement these next phases, that number structurally will continue to come down over time.

隨著我們實施這些下一階段，這個數字在結構上將隨著時間的推移繼續下降。

So now that doesn't mean that we're not going to see cycles and those types of impact.

所以現在這並不意味著我們不會看到週期和那些類型的影響。

And even with consignment inventory, we have as good a visibility as you can get of what our customers are going to build.

即使有寄售庫存，我們也能盡可能清楚地了解我們的客戶將要建造什麼。

But never confuse high visibility with -- that, that number can't change and change quickly.

但永遠不要將高知名度與 - 那個數字不能改變和快速改變混淆。

So -- but we know about it as soon the customers plan to do something and something different.

所以 - 但是一旦客戶計劃做一些不同的事情，我們就會知道這一點。

And let me add a little bit to that.

讓我補充一點。

On that next phase of consignment that we talked about, as Dave just mentioned, that's going to take those distribution inventory weeks, from about 4 to maybe about 3 over the next year or so.

正如戴夫剛才提到的，在我們談到的下一階段寄售中，這將花費那些分銷庫存週，在未來一年左右的時間裡，從大約 4 周到大約 3 週。

That did put some headwind on our third quarter revenue of about $20 million.

這確實給我們第三季度約 2000 萬美元的收入帶來了一些阻力。

And it is probably going to put -- it is putting another $50 million or so to our fourth quarter revenue.

它可能會投入 - 它會為我們的第四季度收入再投入 5000 萬美元左右。

That is incorporated of course in our guide.

這當然包含在我們的指南中。

Of course, that is a small part of what's going on here.

當然，這只是這裡發生的事情的一小部分。

As we've said, most of our markets have slowed down, and that's the main driver of the guidance that we're giving.

正如我們所說，我們的大部分市場都在放緩，這是我們給出指導的主要驅動力。

Great.

偉大的。

Do you have a follow-on, Ambrish?

你有後續嗎，Ambrish？

Yes, I did, and that was helpful.

是的，我做到了，這很有幫助。

What was the book-to-bill for the quarter?

本季度的訂單出貨比是多少？

Our book-to-bill, I knew you would ask that question.

我們的訂單到賬單，我知道你會問這個問題。

It is 0.96 in the quarter.

本季度為 0.96。

And as I always give that number, I have to -- for those who don't follow us and talk about the consignment programs, we don't carry any orders for that demand.

正如我總是給出這個數字，我必須——對於那些不關注我們並談論寄售計劃的人，我們不會為這種需求接受任何訂單。

And so book-to-bill, just be careful with the number, use it in the safety of your home.

因此，預訂到賬單時，請注意號碼，以保證您家中的安全。

We'll go to Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們將與美銀美林一起去 Vivek Arya。

So when I look at the last 2 downturns that you guys went through, and I'm just focusing on the core Analog and Embedded business, and I'm talking about say the first half of 2013 or late 2015, they kind of lasted for 2 quarters, and then you saw your core Analog and Embedded business start to then start to grow year-on-year.

所以當我看到你們經歷的最後兩次低迷時，我只關注核心模擬和嵌入式業務，我說的是 2013 年上半年或 2015 年底，它們持續了2 個季度，然後您看到您的核心模擬和嵌入式業務開始同比增長。

I know you don't want to say anything about the future.

我知道你不想說任何關於未來的事情。

But if you were to just help us contrast the customer behavior and the signals that you're seeing now versus what you saw in those downturns, is there anything that stands out, positive or negative?

但是，如果你只是幫助我們將你現在看到的客戶行為和信號與你在那些低迷時期看到的進行對比，那麼有什麼突出的，正面的還是負面的？

Yes, I'd start that as we look at those, and we all look at industry data.

是的，我會在我們查看這些數據時開始，我們都會查看行業數據。

As we went through those other downturns, the ups weren't very strong and therefore the downs weren't very strong, right?

當我們經歷其他的低迷時期時，漲幅不是很大，因此跌幅也不是很大，對吧？

And I think we've just described those as we've moved through them as just operating in a world that really had low economic growth, right?

而且我認為我們剛剛將這些描述為我們在一個經濟增長確實很低的世界中運作，因為我們已經通過它們，對吧？

So the last couple of years, certainly, we've had much stronger upturn in the economy overall.

因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們的整體經濟當然出現了更強勁的好轉。

The economic growth has been stronger over the last couple of years.

過去幾年，經濟增長更為強勁。

So that's certainly different.

所以這肯定是不同的。

I think that our business has continued to evolve.

我認為我們的業務在不斷發展。

We have more industrial, more automotive business.

我們有更多的工業，更多的汽車業務。

We are continuing to invest and ensure that, that revenue is coming from diverse and long-lived places.

我們將繼續投資並確保收入來自多樣化和長期存在的地方。

I think that we've continued to invest in our 300-millimeter analog footprint and growth.

我認為我們一直在繼續投資於我們的 300 毫米模擬足跡和增長。

So we've got that going into the numbers.

所以我們已經把它變成了數字。

So -- and if you look at the financial performance of the company over those last cycles, and even this quarter, and you look at the amount of free cash flow that we're generating, we just turned in as a percentage of revenue, 37.5%.

所以——如果你看看公司在過去幾個週期甚至本季度的財務業績，看看我們產生的自由現金流量，我們只是以佔收入的百分比形式上交， 37.5%。

Those are good, strong numbers.

這些都是很好的、強勁的數字。

And I think that those are the things that give us confidence to continue to make the investments, to make the business stronger, investing in the competitive advantages.

我認為這些讓我們有信心繼續進行投資，使業務更強大，投資於競爭優勢。

Markets will strengthen and weaken over periods of time.

市場會在一段時間內走強和走弱。

But we continue to stay focused on our opportunity.

但我們繼續專注於我們的機會。

Yes, let me comment on that.

是的，讓我對此發表評論。

So yes, to Dave's point, we have demonstrated for a number of years now the strength of the business model.

所以是的，就戴夫的觀點而言，我們多年來已經展示了商業模式的實力。

And that's through ups and now, downs.

這是通過起起落落，現在，起伏。

And the right thing to do, what we will continue to have done and what we will continue to do is continue to strengthen our competitive advantages so that we continue to become stronger.

而正確的做法，我們將繼續做的和我們將繼續做的是繼續加強我們的競爭優勢，使我們繼續變得更強大。

One of the things or one of the competitive advantages as you know is our manufacturing technologies, specifically 300-millimeter.

如您所知，其中一件事或競爭優勢之一是我們的製造技術，特別是 300 毫米。

And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are looking at the next tranche of capacity.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們正在研究下一批產能。

So we are exploring options for our next 300-millimeter factory.

因此，我們正在探索下一個 300 毫米工廠的選擇。

And we'll likely make a decision within the next year or so.

我們可能會在明年左右做出決定。

And this slowdown is not going to stop us from putting that in place.

這種放緩不會阻止我們將其付諸實施。

Now we'll do it smartly and the first thing that you have to do if we end up building a factory -- we can still buy a factory -- but if we end up building a factory, it would be to build the shell, the actual building, and then we can decide on equipment more incrementally beyond that.

現在我們會聰明地做，如果我們最終要建一個工廠，你必須做的第一件事——我們仍然可以買一個工廠——但如果我們最終要建一個工廠，那就是建造外殼，實際的建築，然後我們可以在此基礎上更加漸進地決定設備。

So to give you some things to think about on that front, our CapEx -- as we do that, our CapEx will increase to about 6% of revenue.

因此，為了讓您在這方面考慮一些事情，我們的資本支出——當我們這樣做時，我們的資本支出將增加到收入的 6% 左右。

In fact, it's already there.

事實上，它已經存在了。

In the last trailing 12 months, we were at 6.6%.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們的增長率為 6.6%。

And then that is excluding the factory shell that I just talked about.

然後就是不包括我剛才談到的工廠外殼。

So if we end up building a factory, it will be about 6% CapEx as a percent of revenue plus the shell and that shell will be $600 million to $700 million over a couple of years.

因此，如果我們最終建造一座工廠，資本支出佔收入的 6% 左右，加上外殼，外殼在幾年內將達到 6 億至 7 億美元。

So I want you, Vivek, to consider that and think about that.

所以我希望你，Vivek，考慮一下。

So that will be -- that's how we are looking at it and how we are planning the next tranche of capacity.

所以這將是——這就是我們如何看待它以及我們如何規劃下一批產能。

Do you have another question?

你還有其他問題要問嗎？

Yes, thanks for that information.

是的，謝謝你提供的信息。

The next question is on buybacks.

下一個問題是關於回購。

You bought back $1.2 billion.

你買回了 12 億美元。

You've been very active in buybacks.

你在回購方面一直非常活躍。

So with the trailing 12 months, you still have, I believe you said $18.2 billion left.

因此，在過去的 12 個月裡，我相信你還剩下 182 億美元。

The stock is down 25% from its highs.

該股較高點下跌了 25%。

Is it fair to assume that you can be more aggressive on buyback to take advantage of the stock price?

假設您可以更積極地回購以利用股價，這是否公平？

Or in general, how do you think about when to be more aggressive with your buybacks?

或者總的來說，您如何考慮何時更積極地回購？

Yes.

是的。

First, let me take a step back, what is the objective here?

首先，讓我退後一步，這裡的目標是什麼？

And the objective is to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company.

目標是將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

So the last 12 months, we generated $5.9 billion of free cash flow.

所以在過去的 12 個月裡，我們產生了 59 億美元的自由現金流。

And then we returned $6.2 billion.

然後我們返還了 62 億美元。

So we've returned virtually the same thing that we have generated.

所以我們實際上返回了與我們生成的相同的東西。

So that's consistent with what we've done for a number of years.

所以這與我們多年來所做的一致。

And we will continue to do that.

我們將繼續這樣做。

Can we, on the margin, do a little bit more here and there?

我們能否在邊際上多做一點？

We could and -- but the big picture is that we would return all free cash flow to the owners of the company.

我們可以而且 - 但大局是我們會將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

And I think we have time for one more caller.

我想我們還有時間再請一位來電者。

We'll go to Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

我們將與 Stifel 一起去 Tore Svanberg。

Congratulations on that Analog operating margins, that's pretty impressive.

祝賀模擬運營利潤率，這非常令人印象深刻。

First question, your SG&A was down quite a bit sequentially.

第一個問題，您的 SG&A 按順序下降了很多。

It's now below 10%.

現在低於 10%。

Is that going to be sort of the rate that we should consider going forward?

這將是我們應該考慮前進的速度嗎？

And does that kind of already incorporate you managing the OpEx a bit more conservatively?

這種情況是否已經讓您更保守地管理運營支出？

What I would tell you, we think of OpEx in general, not just SG&A, but OpEx and SG&A and R&D as investments.

我要告訴你的是，我們一般認為 OpEx，不僅僅是 SG&A，而是 OpEx 和 SG&A 以及研發作為投資。

Not everything there, but certainly, all of R&D is an investment and part of SG&A -- the S part of SG&A.

不是所有的東西，但可以肯定的是，所有研發都是投資和 SG&A 的一部分——SG&A 的 S 部分。

And that is to drive growth in revenue and free cash flow over the long term.

這是為了長期推動收入和自由現金流的增長。

And that's how we view that.

這就是我們的看法。

We suggest you also look at it that way and then it's easier to then look at it on a trailing 12-month basis.

我們建議您也以這種方式查看它，然後在過去 12 個月的基礎上查看它會更容易。

It gets some of the quarter-to-quarter transitions out of the way that can be a little noisy.

它消除了一些可能有點嘈雜的季度到季度的過渡。

So on that basis, OpEx is up about 2% versus the same time period last quarter -- last year, I'm sorry.

因此，在此基礎上，OpEx 與上一季度同期相比增長了約 2%——對不起，去年。

And that is a good expectation of how that number should trail.

這是對該數字應該如何追踪的一個很好的期望。

The other thing that I would point to is that SG&A in particular in third quarter was down in part because of our CEO transition.

我要指出的另一件事是，特別是第三季度的 SG&A 下降，部分原因是我們的 CEO 換屆。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有跟進嗎？

Yes, Rafael, that's very helpful.

是的，拉斐爾，這很有幫助。

My follow-up is on inventory days.

我的後續行動是在庫存日。

So I completely get it and I understand the new consignment plan.

所以我完全明白了，我明白了新的托運計劃。

But how high are you willing to let the inventory days go given the structural change?

但是，鑑於結構性變化，您願意讓庫存天數多高？

Yes.

是的。

I don't want to get into specifics.

我不想談細節。

But I'll frame it this way.

但我會這樣構圖。

One, as I said, it will likely go above the range.

第一，正如我所說，它可能會超出範圍。

So right now, the range is 115 to 145.

所以現在，範圍是 115 到 145。

So it will likely go above 145.

所以它可能會超過 145。

We think like owners.

我們像業主一樣思考。

So to me, to us, that is a use of cash, right?

所以對我來說，對我們來說，這是現金的使用，對吧？

So I feel compelled to use that cash for inventory because I think it's a good return on that investment because it's going to help us on the other side of our recovery.

所以我覺得有必要將這筆現金用於庫存，因為我認為這是一項很好的投資回報，因為它將幫助我們在復甦的另一端。

And as I said, it's very low obsolescence type of inventory.

正如我所說，這是一種非常低的過時庫存類型。

But we wouldn't keep it at those levels indefinitely.

但我們不會無限期地將其保持在這些水平。

If it's a long-lasting slowdown, then we would take additional measures to modulate that inventory, bring it back within the range at some point in the future.

如果這是一個長期的放緩，那麼我們將採取額外的措施來調節庫存，在未來的某個時候將其恢復到該範圍內。

Okay, thank you very much, Tore.

好的，非常感謝你，Tore。

We appreciate all of you joining us tonight.

感謝大家今晚加入我們。

A replay of this call is available on our website.

我們的網站上提供了此次通話的重播。

Good night.

晚安。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, again, that does conclude today's conference.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you all again for your participation.

再次感謝大家的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。