德州儀器 (TXN) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Texas Instruments First-Quarter 2018 Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to David Pahl. Please go ahead, sir.

各位好，歡迎參加德州儀器2018年第一季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄影。此時，我想把會議交給大衛·帕爾。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our First-Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Rafael Lizardi, TI's chief financial officer, is with me today. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. A replay will also be available through the website.

下午好，感謝各位參加我們2018年第一季財報電話會議。德州儀器財務長拉斐爾·利扎爾迪今天和我在一起。如果您錯過了發布會，可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。本次通話正在網路上進行現場直播，可透過我們的網站收看。網站上也會提供回放。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致德州儀器 (TI) 的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們建議您查看今天發布的盈利報告中有關前瞻性聲明的通知，以及德州儀器 (TI) 向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的最新文件，以獲取更完整的說明。

I'll start with a quick summary of our financial results. Revenue for the first quarter increased 11% from a year ago as demand for our products remained strong in the industrial and automotive markets. In our core business, Analog revenue grew 14% and Embedded Processing revenue grew 15% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Operating margin increased in both businesses. Earnings per share were $1.35, including $0.14 in tax-related benefits not in our original guidance. These were primarily due to the recent tax reform law. With that backdrop, I'll provide details on our performance, which we believe continues to be representative of the ongoing strength of our business model.

我先簡單總結一下我們的財務表現。由於工業和汽車市場對我們產品的需求依然強勁，第一季營收比去年同期成長了 11%。在我們的核心業務中，模擬業務收入年增 14%，嵌入式處理業務收入年增 15%。兩項業務的營業利潤率均有所提升。每股收益為 1.35 美元，其中包括 0.14 美元的稅收相關收益，這不在我們最初的預期之內。這主要是由於最近的稅制改革法案所致。在此背景下，我將詳細介紹我們的業績，我們相信這將繼續代表我們商業模式的持續優勢。

In the first quarter, our cash flow from operations was $1.1 billion. We believe that free cash flow growth, especially on a per-share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term. Free cash flow for the trailing 12-month period was $4.9 billion, up 17% from a year ago. Free cash flow margin for the same period was 32.1% of revenue, up from 30.7% a year ago. We continue to benefit from the quality of our product portfolio that is long-lived and diverse and the efficiency of our manufacturing strategy, the latter of which includes our growing 300-millimeter Analog output.

第一季度，我們的經營活動現金流為 11 億美元。我們認為，自由現金流成長，尤其是每股自由現金流成長，對於長期實現股東價值最大化至關重要。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 49 億美元，比上年同期成長 17%。同期自由現金流利潤率為營收的 32.1%，高於去年同期的 30.7%。我們持續受益於我們持久耐用、種類繁多的產品組合的高品質，以及我們高效的製造策略，後者包括我們不斷增長的 300 毫米類比輸出。

We believe that free cash flow will only be valued if it's productively invested in the business or returned to owners. For the trailing 12-month period, we returned $5.1 billion of cash to owners through a combination of dividends and stock repurchases.

我們認為，只有將自由現金流用於企業建設或回饋給所有者，才能反映其價值。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們透過股利和股票回購的方式向股東返還了 51 億美元的現金。

I'll now provide some details by segment. From a year-ago quarter, Analog revenue grew 14% due to Power and Signal Chain. High Volume was about even. Embedded Processing revenue grew by 15% from a year-ago quarter due to growth in both Processors and Connected Microcontrollers. In our Other segment, revenue declined 13% from a year ago primarily due to custom ASIC products.

接下來我將分部分提供一些細節。由於電源和訊號鏈業務的成長，類比業務收入較上年同期成長了 14%。高音量部分基本持平。由於處理器和連網微控制器業務的成長，嵌入式處理業務的收入比去年同期成長了 15%。在其他業務板塊，由於客製化ASIC產品，營收年減了13%。

Now I'll provide some insight into this quarter's revenue performance by end market versus a year ago. Industrial demand remained strong with broad-based growth. Automotive demand remained strong with all sectors contributing to growth. Personal electronics grew with increases across several sectors and customers. Communications equipment declined but was about even compared with the fourth quarter. And lastly, enterprise systems grew.

現在我將按終端市場對本季營收表現與去年同期進行比較分析。工業需求維持強勁，實現全面成長。汽車需求依然強勁，所有細分市場都為成長做出了貢獻。個人電子產品隨著多個行業和客戶群的成長而發展壯大。通訊設備銷量下降，但與第四季基本持平。最後，企業系統也發展起來了。

As we get more insight into and guidelines on the tax reform law, we have updated our tax estimates. First, we now expect a 16% ongoing annual operating tax rate starting in 2019, down from our prior expectations of 18%.

隨著我們對稅改法案的了解和指導方針不斷加深，我們已更新了稅收估算。首先，我們現在預計從 2019 年開始的持續年度營業稅率為 16%，低於我們先前預期的 18%。

Second, for 2018, investors should now assume a 20% annual operating tax rate, down from our prior expectation of 23%. The 2018 rate is higher than the 2019 rate due to a transitional noncash expense in 2018. As a reminder, our operating tax rate does not include any discrete items.

其次，對於 2018 年，投資者現在應該假設年度營業稅率為 20%，低於我們先前預期的 23%。2018 年的利率高於 2019 年的利率，這是由於 2018 年發生了過渡性非現金支出。再次提醒，我們的營業稅率不包括任何獨立項目。

To get you to an effective tax rate by quarter for the balance of the year, we'll continue -- we continue to expect the benefit from stock-based compensation to be about $10 million in the second and third quarters and about $5 million in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the effective tax rate will be about 20% in each of the remaining quarters of 2018. You'll find this information summarized on our IR website under Financial Summary Data, as we've done in the past.

為了讓您了解本年度剩餘時間裡各季度的實際稅率，我們將繼續——我們仍然預計，股票期權激勵措施帶來的收益在第二季度和第三季度約為 1000 萬美元，在第四季度約為 500 萬美元。因此，2018 年剩餘各季度的實際稅率約為 20%。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站的「財務摘要資料」部分找到這些資訊的匯總，就像我們過去所做的那樣。

And then lastly, in the first quarter of 2018, we had about $140 million of tax benefits that were not in our original guidance. These include $50 million due to stock-based compensation, $50 million due to the updated estimates related to the tax reform law and $40 million primarily due to the previously described decrease in the tax rate for 2018.

最後，在 2018 年第一季度，我們獲得了約 1.4 億美元的稅收優惠，這不在我們最初的預期之內。其中包括因股票選擇權補償而增加的 5,000 萬美元，因與稅改法相關的更新估計而增加的 5,000 萬美元，以及主要因先前所述的 2018 年稅率下降而增加的 4,000 萬美元。

In summary, we continue to focus our strategy on the industrial and automotive markets, where we've been allocating our capital and driving initiatives to strengthen our position. This is based on a belief that industrial and automotive will be the fastest-growing semiconductor markets. They have increasing semiconductor content. These markets also provide diversity and longevity. All of this translates to a high terminal value of our portfolio.

總而言之，我們將繼續把策略重點放在工業和汽車市場，我們一直在這些市場投入資金並推動各項舉措，以鞏固我們的地位。這是基於這樣一種信念：工業和汽車產業將成為成長最快的半導體市場。它們的半導體含量越來越高。這些市場也提供了多樣性和持久性。所有這些都意味著我們投資組合的最終價值很高。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

Rafael接下來將審查獲利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.45 billion or 64.6% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit increased due to higher revenue and lower manufacturing costs. Gross profit margin increased 160 basis points.

本季毛利為 24.5 億美元，佔營收的 64.6%。由於收入增加和製造成本降低，毛利較上年同期成長。毛利率提高了160個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $818 million, a 1% increase from a year ago and about as expected. R&D grew 4% and SG&A was about even. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 20.9% of revenue, within our range of expectations. Over the last 12 months, we have invested $1.52 billion in R&D. We are pleased with our disciplined process of allocating capital to R&D that allows us to continue to grow our top line and gain market share.

本季營運支出為 8.18 億美元，比去年同期成長 1%，與預期基本相符。研發支出成長了 4%，銷售、管理及行政費用基本持平。以過去 12 個月計算，營運費用佔收入的 20.9%，符合我們的預期範圍。過去 12 個月，我們在研發方面投入了 15.2 億美元。我們對研發資金分配的嚴謹流程感到滿意，這使我們能夠繼續提高營收並獲得市場份額。

Acquisition charges and noncash expense were $80 million. Acquisition charges will be about $80 million per quarter through the third quarter of 2019 then decline to about $50 million per quarter for 2 remaining years.

收購費用和非現金支出為 8,000 萬美元。收購費用在 2019 年第三季之前每季約為 8,000 萬美元，之後兩年將下降到每季約 5,000 萬美元。

Operating profit was $1.55 billion or 40.9% of revenue. Operating profit was up 24% from the year-ago quarter. Operating margin for Analog was 45.4%, up from 41.4% a year ago. And for Embedded Processing, it was 35.4%, up from 29.9% a year ago. Our focused investments on the best sustainable growth opportunities with differentiated positions enable both businesses to continue to contribute nicely to free cash flow growth.

營業利潤為 15.5 億美元，佔營收的 40.9%。營業利潤比去年同期成長了24%。Analog 的營業利益率為 45.4%，高於一年前的 41.4%。嵌入式處理領域的比例為 35.4%，高於一年前的 29.9%。我們專注於投資具有差異化優勢的最佳永續成長機會，使兩家企業都能繼續為自由現金流成長做出良好貢獻。

Net income in the first quarter was $1.37 billion or $1.35 per share.

第一季淨利為 13.7 億美元，即每股 1.35 美元。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我來談談我們的資本管理業績，先從我們的現金流產生情況說起。

Cash flow from operations was $1.11 billion in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $189 million in the quarter. Free cash flow was $4.92 billion on a trailing 12-month basis, up 17% from a year ago.

本季經營活動產生的現金流量為11.1億美元。本季資本支出為1.89億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 49.2 億美元，比上年同期成長 17%。

In the first quarter, we paid $611 million in dividends and repurchased $873 million of our own stock for a total return of $1.48 billion in the first quarter. We have returned $5.1 billion to owners in the past 12 months, consistent with our strategy to return to owners all of our free cash flow. Over the same period, our dividends represented 45% of free cash flow, underscoring their sustainability.

第一季度，我們支付了 6.11 億美元的股息，並回購了價值 8.73 億美元的公司股票，第一季總回報為 14.8 億美元。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們已向所有者返還了 51 億美元，這與我們將所有自由現金流返還給所有者的策略是一致的。同期，我們的股利佔自由現金流的 45%，凸顯了其永續性。

Our balance sheet remained strong with $4.1 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the first quarter. Total debt is also $4.1 billion with a weighted average coupon rate of 2.05%.

第一季末，我們的資產負債表依然穩健，擁有 41 億美元的現金和短期投資。總負債為 41 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 2.05%。

Inventory days were 136, up 4 days from a year ago and within our expected range.

庫存週轉天數為 136 天，比去年同期增加了 4 天，但仍在我們的預期範圍內。

Turning to our outlook for the second quarter. We expect TI revenue in the range of $3.78 billion to $4.10 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.19 to $1.39, which includes an estimated $10 million discrete tax benefit.

接下來展望第二季。我們預計德州儀器 (TI) 的收入將在 37.8 億美元至 41 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.19 美元至 1.39 美元之間，其中包括預計 1000 萬美元的一次性稅收優惠。

In closing, I'll note that the strength of our business model was demonstrated throughout our financial performance over the last few years, from top-line growth and margin expansion to free cash flow generation. We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, portfolio breadth, market reach, and diverse and long-lived products. We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best products, Analog and Embedded Processing, and the best markets, industrial and automotive, which I believe will enable us to continue to improve and deliver free cash flow per share growth for a long time to come.

最後，我想指出，過去幾年我們的財務表現充分證明了我們商業模式的優勢，從營收成長和利潤率擴張到自由現金流的產生。我們將繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，包括製造和技術、產品組合廣度、市場覆蓋範圍以及多樣化和長壽命的產品。我們將繼續透過嚴格的資本配置，專注於最好的產品（模擬和嵌入式處理）和最好的市場（工業和汽車），來加強這些優勢。我相信這將使我們能夠在未來很長一段時間內繼續改進並實現每股自由現金流的成長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

那麼，現在讓我把話題轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open up the lines for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

謝謝你，拉斐爾。操作員，現在可以開通提問通道了。（操作說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員指示）我們首先連線美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

For my first question, since you guys have such a wide perspective on the global economy, I was wondering if you could give us a sense on what you are seeing versus, for example, what you might have thought at the start of the year. Are you noticing any areas of slowdown or pause or anything? Because your Q1 results are very strong. Q2 is above consensus expectations. Perhaps, sequentially, it's not what it has been in the past. So just broadly, what you're seeing in the economy versus what you thought 3 months ago.

我的第一個問題是，鑑於你們對全球經濟有著如此廣闊的視野，我想知道你們能否讓我們了解一下你們現在看到的情況，例如，與你們年初的想法相比，有什麼不同。你有沒有註意到任何卡頓、停頓或其他異常情況？因為你們第一季的業績非常出色。第二季業績超乎市場預期。或許，從順序來看，它與過去的情況有所不同。所以總的來說，你現在看到的經濟狀況與你三個月前的想法相比如何？

Okay. Let me -- I'll start with that. And then Dave, if you want to chime in on that. But I would tell you, from a global standpoint, what we're seeing is that it continues -- the macro economy continues -- to be constructive, although uncertainties have been introduced clearly in the geopolitical area with everything going on that we read in the news. Now it's too soon if that -- what that impact is going to be on the macro level. What's important though, from a year-ago basis, we continue to see strength in industrial and automotive as Dave highlighted during his prepared remarks. Personal electronics grew across several sectors. And while communications equipment declined, it was about even sequentially. Dave?

好的。讓我來——我先從這裡開始。戴夫，如果你想就此發表意見的話。但從全球角度來看，我們看到的是宏觀經濟繼續保持建設性，儘管地緣政治領域顯然出現了不確定性，正如我們在新聞中讀到的那樣。現在判斷這種影響在宏觀層面上會如何還為時過早。但重要的是，與一年前相比，我們仍然看到工業和汽車行業的強勁勢頭，正如戴夫在事先準備好的發言中所強調的那樣。個人電子產品在多個領域都得到了發展。雖然通訊設備有所下降，但其數量基本上保持穩定。戴夫？

Yes. And I think that, Vivek, when you look at the quarter, with the revenue increasing 11%, the demand continuing to remain strong in both industrial and automotive, and I've just described that demand as continuing to be very broad-based. So -- and I think that, that speaks to one of our competitive advantages, which is diversity and longevity of products. So we're certainly benefiting from that today. Do you have a follow-on, Vivek?

是的。我認為，Vivek，當你觀察本季度，收入增長了 11%，工業和汽車領域的需求繼續保持強勁，而我剛才也描述了這種需求仍然非常廣泛。所以——我認為這體現了我們的競爭優勢之一，那就是產品的多樣性和持久性。所以，我們今天確實從中受益匪淺。維韋克，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. CapEx, it's up 42% on a trailing 12-month basis, running ahead of revenue growth. So it's closer to a 5% or 6% of sales versus the 4% target. I'm curious. Why is CapEx growing so much faster when you're only 50% utilized in your 300-millimeter factory? I mean, should we look at growing CapEx as a sign of confidence and demand? Or at what point should we be worried that maybe you're going to build too much inventory?

是的。資本支出在過去 12 個月內成長了 42%，超過了收入成長。因此，實際銷售額接近 5% 或 6%，而不是 4% 的目標。我很好奇。為什麼你的300毫米工廠產能利用率只有50%，資本支出卻成長得如此快速？我的意思是，我們是否應該將資本支出成長視為信心和需求的象徵？或者，我們應該在什麼情況下擔心你們可能會累積過多的庫存？

Yes, I'll give you a few things on that. First and most importantly, let's step back and think about what is the purpose of CapEx. We talked about this during our capital management strategy a couple of months ago. And CapEx is -- our objective there is to support technology development and revenue growth. We want to expand our low-cost manufacturing advantage, specifically 300-millimeter. We're the only analog company with its own 300-millimeter factory. And what that does at the end of the day is allow us to maximize long-term free cash flow per share growth. So that's what the ultimate objective is, the CapEx percent of revenue, that's just a general guide that we give. And on that, our sense is that 4%, that could vary, depending on what's going on in the marketplace. In a period of very strong demand, when we're expanding capacity, that could run up. And right now, on a trailing 12-month basis, it's 4.9%. But of course, the reason that would run up is that we see opportunities to continue expanding our technology development and our low-cost manufacturing advantage so that ultimately, we drive long-term growth of free cash flow per share.

是的，關於這一點，我會給你一些建議。首先也是最重要的是，讓我們退後一步，思考一下資本支出的目的是什麼。我們在幾個月前的資本管理策略討論中談到這個問題。資本支出－我們的目標是支持技術發展和收入成長。我們希望擴大我們的低成本製造優勢，特別是 300 毫米規格。我們是唯一擁有自己300毫米工廠的類比訊號公司。最終，這樣做可以讓我們最大限度地提高每股長期自由現金流的成長。所以，最終目標就是資本支出佔收入的百分比，這只是我們提供的一個整體指導原則。對此，我們的看法是 4%，但這個數字可能會根據市場情況而有所變化。在需求非常強勁的時期，當我們擴大產能時，這種情況可能會發生。而目前，過去 12 個月的累積成長率為 4.9%。當然，這背後的原因是我們看到了繼續擴大技術開發和低成本製造優勢的機會，最終推動每股自由現金流的長期成長。

We'll take our next question from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

接下來，我們將回答來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢提出的問題。

First, I wanted to ask about OpEx. In Q1, it was -- it grew probably a little less than would ordinarily be typical sequentially. Were there any specific drivers to that? Maybe pushout of spend maybe into Q2? And I guess, along those lines, Q2 OpEx would usually be up a little bit. Any change that we should expect from what would be typical there?

首先，我想問一下營運支出（OpEx）方面的問題。第一季度，其成長速度可能略低於正常水準。是否存在什麼具體驅動因素？或許會將支出延後到第二季？我想，照此推算，第二季的營運支出通常會略有上升。與當地通常情況相比，我們應該預期會有哪些變化？

Yes. So on OpEx, on first quarter, we're -- it came in about as expected, and we continue to be pleased with how we're allocating capital to OpEx in general, specifically to R&D as it continues to drive growth in the top line and we continue to gain market share. On the subsequent quarter, as you know, we gave a range of revenue and EPS. We don't get in between the lines. If there was something unusual going on, we would point that out. We're not pointing it out because there's nothing unusual going on in between those lines.

是的。因此，就營運支出而言，第一季的情況基本上符合預期，我們對整體營運支出（特別是研發）的資金分配方式仍然感到滿意，因為研發持續推動營收成長，我們也持續獲得市場份額。如您所知，在接下來的季度中，我們給出了營收和每股盈餘的預期範圍。我們不會越界。如果出現任何異常情況，我們會指出來。我們沒有指出這一點，因為字裡行間沒有什麼不尋常的事情發生。

You have a follow-on, Stacy?

史泰西，你還有後續問題嗎？

I do. I wanted to ask about the -- grew year-over-year. I was a little surprised just given what we've heard from other players in that space right now. Could you give us a little more color? I think you said, like, in certain segments, could you give us a little more color about what's actually going on under the covers in personal electronics, and I guess whether or not you see the current trends actually extending into next quarter given what's going on in the supply chain?

我願意。我想問一下——逐年增長的情況。考慮到我們目前從該領域其他參與者那裡聽到的情況，我感到有點驚訝。能再詳細描述一下嗎？我想你剛才說過，在某些領域，你能否更詳細地介紹個人電子產品領域內部正在發生的事情？考慮到供應鏈的現狀，你是否認為目前的趨勢會延續到下一個季度？

Well, yes. Let me talk about this quarter that we're reporting. We'll wait for second-quarter results to go through the details there. We described it as -- that we saw growth across several sectors and several customers. So what we're trying to point out there is it's not just handsets that are growing. There are other things that are growing inside of that. And I would describe the growth as somewhere in the mid-single digits. So good growth, especially for a sector like personal electronics. Long term, of course, we think that we'll see auto and industrial drive our business. That's where we've been allocating increasingly our capital to. And that's just the belief that those will be the 2 areas that will drive growth not just for us, but certainly, in our industry overall.

是的。讓我來談談我們正在報告的這個季度的情況。我們將等待第二季業績公佈後再詳細說明。我們將其描述為——我們看到多個行業和多個客戶群都實現了成長。所以我們想指出的是，不只是手機在成長。裡面還有其他東西正在生長。我會把成長率描述為個位數中段。所以成長勢頭良好，尤其對於個人電子產品這樣的產業來說更是如此。當然，從長遠來看，我們認為汽車和工業將成為我們業務的主要驅動力。這就是我們不斷將資金投入該領域的原因。我們相信，這兩個領域不僅將推動我們自身的成長，也必將推動我們整個產業的成長。

Our next question will come from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

On inventory, Dave, I think Q1 inventory grew about 4% sequentially. I think days of inventory grew a little bit as well. Can you describe how you guys see internal inventory today? And if you can comment on the channel, what you guys see in the channel, that would be helpful as well.

戴夫，關於庫存，我認為第一季庫存環比增長了約 4%。我認為庫存天數也略有增加。你們能描述一下目前內部庫存的狀況嗎？如果您能對頻道發表評論，說說您在頻道裡看到了什麼，那也將對我們很有幫助。

Okay. I'll talk about our internal inventory, and then Dave will talk about channel inventory. But on inventory, let me step back again and refer you to our long-term objectives that we talked about at the capital management call. What do we want inventory for? The objective of inventory is to maintain high levels of customer service, minimize obsolescence, improve our manufacturing asset utilization. And we also see value in controlling that inventory, having more of it in our own product distribution centers, more in consignment, more in low-volume buffers. I talked about this at the capital management call as well as 90 days ago when we closed the last quarter and this topic came up. So we're very pleased where inventory ended up. From a days basis, it was 136 days. From a year ago, that's up 4 days. Sequentially, it's up 2 days. And it's well within our 115 to 145-day inventory days range.

好的。我先談談我們的內部庫存，然後戴夫再談談渠道庫存。但是關於庫存問題，讓我再回顧一下我們在資本管理電話會議上討論的長期目標。我們需要庫存做什麼？庫存的目標是維持高水準的客戶服務，最大限度地減少過時產品，並提高我們的生產資產利用率。我們也看到了控制庫存的價值，讓更多的庫存存放在我們自己的產品配送中心，更多的庫存用於寄售，更多的庫存用於低容量緩衝庫存。我在資本管理電話會議上談到了這一點，90 天前我們結束上個季度會議時也談到了這一點，當時也提到了這個話題。所以我們對最終的庫存狀況非常滿意。以天計算，是 136 天。與一年前相比，增加了4天。連續兩天上漲。而且這完全在我們 115 到 145 天的庫存週期範圍內。

Yes. And Toshiya, from a channel standpoint, inventories remained at about 4 weeks. And just as a reminder, for those that aren't familiar, as Rafael pointed out, there is -- we believe that there's value in owning and controlling our own inventory, and that shows up in the consignment programs. So about 65% of our distribution revenue is shipped through a consignment program. So that 4 weeks really represents maybe 1/2 to 1/3 of what many of our peers will run in the channel. So we feel that's a good level, that, combined with the inventory positions that we have on our books. Do you have a follow-on, Toshiya?

是的。從通路角度來看，Toshiya 的庫存量維持在 4 週左右。再次提醒一下，對於那些不太了解的人來說，正如拉斐爾指出的那樣，我們相信擁有和控制自己的庫存是有價值的，這一點在寄售計劃中體現出來。因此，我們約 65% 的分銷收入是透過寄售計劃發貨的。所以這 4 週實際上可能只相當於我們許多同行在頻道中運行時間的 1/2 到 1/3。所以我們認為這是一個不錯的水平，再加上我們帳面上的庫存狀況。俊也，你還有後續問題嗎？

I do. So on communication equipment specifically, I think 3 months ago, you guys talked about the business being a little bit choppy. And today, I guess, you told us that revenues were down year-over-year and kind of flattish sequentially. At what point would you expect this business to revert to growth? Is it sort of in the second half of '18 given lower comps? Or do we need to wait longer for this business to start growing again?

我願意。所以具體到通訊設備方面，我想三個月前，你們談到這個行業有點不穩定。今天，我想您告訴我們，收入同比下降，環比基本持平。您認為這家企業何時才能恢復成長？考慮到較低的競爭水平，這算是2018年下半年的情況嗎？或者我們需要等待更長時間，直到這項業務再次開始成長？

Yes. So I won't try to predict what the back half of the growth for comms equipment will look like. As you mentioned, and you've been following the industry long enough, you know that, that sector is just choppy the way that operators place orders and the OEMs have to build inventories to respond to that. That doesn't make it a bad business. It is just the nature of it. And there will be more communications equipment shipped in the coming years. So we've got a great position today in 4G products. We'll have a great position in 5G products, and we don't spend really any time try to figure out when that mix will begin to shift, and we'll just enjoy the demand as it comes in.

是的。所以我不會嘗試預測通訊設備市場後半段的成長情況。正如您所提到的，而且您關注這個行業的時間也足夠長了，您知道，這個行業波動很大，運營商下訂單的方式不穩定，而原始設備製造商必須建立庫存來應對這些訂單。但這並不意味著它是一項糟糕的生意。這就是事物的本質。未來幾年還將有更多通訊設備出貨。所以，我們目前在4G產品領域佔有非常有利的地位。我們將在 5G 產品領域佔據有利地位，我們不會花太多時間去弄清楚這種組合何時會開始轉變，我們只會享受隨之而來的需求。

Our next question will come from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

Great. Wondering if you could just talk about what you're seeing. You mentioned channel inventory, if you could speak to your customers' inventory a little bit. And I guess, we've seen shortages of things outside of your space like passives and embedded memory and things like that. Is that causing any change to your customers' inventory behavior in your business either because they have inventory waiting for those things that are in shortage or they're holding more of a buffer? Or is it sort of business as usual?

偉大的。我想知道你是否可以談談你看到的情況。您提到了通路庫存，能否稍微談談您客戶的庫存狀況？我想，我們也看到了你們領域之外的一些產品短缺，例如被動元件、嵌入式記憶體等等。這是否導致您客戶的庫存行為發生任何變化，例如他們是否有庫存等待短缺的商品，或者他們是否持有更多緩衝庫存？還是一切照舊？

Yes, Joe. I would say that we've got no indications of inventories growing or double orders for that matter, which history suggests also, I'd very quickly point out, that you never really see that ahead of time, right? So I think with that said, I think it's always important to qualify what we can see. So we've got good visibility in the distribution inventories. As I talked about earlier, a good portion of that remains on consignment, so we'll actually hold that inventory on our books. Our visibility into customer inventories varies. This really depends on whether we've got consignment or not. So with consignment OEMs, we're carrying that inventory on our books. And we're not seeing anything that I would describe as unusual signals, things like expedites and things like that would suggest that there'd be some other broader issue. Now our visibility in the inventory beyond our customers' manufacturing operations, of course, is very low. So our lead times remain stable. Of course, we always have hotspots. We work aggressively with customers to close. And other metrics, like cancellations, reschedules, those also remain at very low levels. So those are the things that we can see and we can measure. And for a long time, we'll just try to keep doing what we've been doing, which is with our manufacturing and our internal inventory strategies, we just stay focused on keeping those lead times stable. And more importantly, delivery metric's very high, because that's ultimately what gives customers confidence that they can get support from us when they need it. Do you have a follow-on, Joe?

是的，喬。我想說，目前沒有任何跡象表明庫存會增加，或者訂單會翻倍。歷史也表明，我還要很快指出，這種情況通常不會提前發生，對吧？所以我覺得，綜上所述，對我們所看到的東西進行限定總是很重要的。因此，我們對分銷庫存情況有很好的了解。正如我之前提到的，其中很大一部分仍然是寄售商品，所以我們實際上會將這些庫存保留在我們的帳面上。我們對客戶庫存的了解程度各不相同。這主要取決於我們是否有寄售貨物。因此，對於寄售的原始設備製造商，我們將這些庫存記入我們的帳簿。我們沒有看到任何我稱之為不尋常的訊號，例如加急處理之類的事情，這些都表明可能存在一些更廣泛的問題。當然，對於客戶生產營運以外的庫存情況，我們的可視性非常低。因此，我們的交貨週期保持穩定。當然，我們總是會遇到熱點地區。我們積極主動地與客戶合作，促成交易。其他指標，如取消、改期等，也都維持在非常低的水準。所以，這些是我們能看到和能測量的東西。在很長一段時間內，我們將繼續堅持我們一直在做的事情，也就是透過我們的生產和內部庫存策略，我們將繼續專注於維持交貨週期的穩定。更重要的是，交付指標非常高，因為這最終能讓客戶相信，當他們需要幫助時，可以從我們這裡獲得支援。喬，你還有後續問題嗎？

That makes sense. No, that's all I had.

這很有道理。不，我只有這些。

Our next question will come from Chris Danely with Citigroup.

下一個問題將來自花旗集團的克里斯·丹尼利。

First question is just a quick one. So sequentially, revenue increased but gross margins were down a bit. Can you comment on why that happened?

第一個問題很簡單。因此，營收季增，但毛利率略有下降。您能解釋為什麼會發生這種情況嗎？

Yes. When you look at gross margin fall through, which is kind of what's embedded in your question there, in any one sequential transition, particularly when revenue was about flat, it's up 1%, it's difficult to do that analysis and make -- have anything meaningful come out of that. You probably want to look at it on a year-on-year basis. And on that basis, our gross margin -- gross profit margin increased 160 basis points. The fall-through was about 78%. And we -- that's along the lines of what we have guided all of you before that, on a long-term basis, the fall-through that you should expect from our revenue growth should be 70% and 75%.

是的。當你觀察毛利率下降的情況時（這正是你問題中隱含的部分），在任何一個連續的過渡期，尤其是在收入基本持平，毛利率增長 1% 的情況下，很難進行分析並從中得出任何有意義的結論。你可能想按年來看待這個問題。在此基礎上，我們的毛利率提高了160個基點。跌幅約 78%。而且，這與我們之前指導大家的做法一致，從長遠來看，你們應該預期我們的收入成長將下降 70% 到 75%。

You have a follow-up, Chris?

克里斯，你還有後續問題嗎？

Great. Yes, for my follow-up, now that the tax rate continues to go down, can you just talk about your plans for this extra cash? Is it possible? I know you usually raise the dividend sometime around August or September. Is it possible or feasible you can raise the dividend twice this year? Why not crank up the buyback a little bit more? I think you took your share count down by just a couple of million. Comment on that?

偉大的。是的，我的後續問題是，既然稅率持續下降，您能否談談您打算如何使用這筆額外的收入？是否可以？我知道你們通常會在八月或九月左右提高股息。今年是否有可能或可行兩次提高股利？為什麼不進一步提高回購比例呢？我認為你的股票數量減少了幾百萬股。對此有何評論？

Yes. So let me step back and talk about cash return and how we think about that and then how we think about dividends and repurchases. From a cash return standpoint, our objective is to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company. And we have been doing that for a number of years. In fact, on a trailing 12-month basis, we generated $4.9 billion of free cash flow, and we've returned $5.1 billion of free cash flow. So we're doing that. Now obviously, we do that in 2 ways, dividends or repurchases. From a dividend standpoint, we want to provide sustainable and growing dividends. As of the end of last year, we have been growing that dividend 24% on a compounded basis, for the last -- for the previous 5 years. And we ended last year, also on a trailing 12-month basis, at 45% of free cash flow. So that underscores its sustainability. On the repurchases, we just got done repurchasing $873 million of our own stock, and our objective there is the accretive capture of the future free cash flow for the long-term owners of the company. So we use reasonable assumptions to extrapolate, estimate what we think our free cash flow growth is going to be. And then based on that, we come up with different scenarios and validation. And as long as the market price is below those scenarios, we buy back stock. And that's what you've seen us do for a number of years now, and we will continue doing that.

是的。那麼，讓我退後一步，談談現金回報以及我們如何看待現金回報，然後再談談我們如何看待股息和回購。從現金回報的角度來看，我們的目標是將所有自由現金流回饋給公司所有者。我們多年來一直這樣做。事實上，過去 12 個月，我們產生了 49 億美元的自由現金流，並返還了 51 億美元的自由現金流。所以我們正在這樣做。很顯然，我們可以透過兩種方式來實現這一點：股利或股票回購。從分紅的角度來看，我們希望提供可持續成長的股利。截至去年年底，在過去 5 年裡，我們的股息以複合年增長率 24% 的速度成長。去年年底，以過去 12 個月計算，我們的自由現金流佔比為 45%。這凸顯了它的可持續性。關於股票回購，我們剛剛完成了價值 8.73 億美元的公司股票回購，我們的目標是為公司的長期所有者增加未來的自由現金流。因此，我們運用合理的假設來推斷，估算出我們認為的自由現金流成長將會是多少。然後在此基礎上，我們提出不同的方案和驗證方法。只要市場價格低於這些預期，我們就會回購股票。多年來，你們一直看到我們這樣做，我們也會繼續這樣做。

Our next question will come from Blayne Curtis with Barclays.

下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩柯蒂斯。

Actually, maybe I could just follow up on the last question on gross margins. I know you don't guide specifically into June, but just kind of a similar question, sequential growth into June. What story are we thinking about gross margin? Is there any headwinds to think about mix-wise or such as why the gross margin wouldn't be up?

其實，或許我可以再補充一下毛利率的最後一個問題。我知道你們沒有專門針對六月的指導，但這個問題有點類似，就是六月的連續成長情況。我們想了解的毛利率狀況是什麼？從產品組合或其他方面來看，是否有任何不利因素導致毛利率無法增加？

Yes. I'll just tell you, of course, for -- on any given point, we're not going to give a specific projection on that. We give a revenue range and an EPS range. But the bigger picture on that is that: a, we'll continue to drive revenue growth. And that's the biggest contributor to free cash flow growth. And then in addition to that, we'll continue increasing our loadings on 300-millimeter, which has a 40% cost advantage. That's one of our manufacturing -- one of our competitive advantages. We're the only analog company with its own 300-millimeter factories. So every time we build an incremental wafer on 300-millimeter, we have better fall through on that. We have better free cash flow per share growth. So we will continue to do that for the foreseeable future and even beyond the current capacity of those factories.

是的。當然，我只能說，對於任何特定點，我們都不會給出具體的預測。我們會給出營收範圍和每股盈餘範圍。但從更宏觀的角度來看：a，我們將繼續推動營收成長。這是自由現金流成長的最大貢獻者。此外，我們還將繼續增加 300 毫米規格的產量，該規格具有 40% 的成本優勢。這是我們的生產製造優勢之一，也是我們的競爭優勢之一。我們是唯一擁有自己300毫米工廠的類比訊號公司。所以每次我們在 300 毫米晶圓上製造增量晶圓時，我們最好確保不會失敗。我們的每股自由現金流成長更快。因此，在可預見的未來，我們將繼續這樣做，甚至超過這些工廠目前的產能。

You have a follow-up, Blayne?

布萊恩，你還有後續問題嗎？

And then just in the March quarter, you saw good strength in Embedded, and particularly in Processors, wondering if you can just speak about that strength in terms of end market or particular products or such, that would be helpful.

然後，就在三月的季度裡，我們看到了嵌入式系統，特別是處理器的強勁表現。我想知道您能否就終端市場或特定產品等方面談談這種強勁勢頭，這將很有幫助。

Yes, if you look at Embedded overall and Processors specifically, they have a very high exposure to industrial and automotive. So that growth is really coming from very diverse places. Connected Microcontrollers also grew very nicely as well. And again, that includes our connectivity products there, and they are doing quite well. And we're encouraged because that growth is coming from diverse places, which I think gives us confidence in the long-term ability of that portion of our business to continue to grow.

是的，如果你整體來看嵌入式系統，特別是處理器領域，它們在工業和汽車領域的應用非常廣泛。所以，這種成長確實來自非常不同的地方。聯網微控制器也發展得非常順利。這其中也包括我們的連結產品，而且這些產品表現相當不錯。我們感到鼓舞，因為這種成長來自不同領域，我認為這讓我們對公司這部分業務的長期持續成長能力充滿信心。

Our next question will come from Ambrish Srivastava from Bank of Montréal.

下一個問題將來自蒙特利爾銀行的安布里什·斯里瓦斯塔瓦。

Dave, Rafael, I apologize if I missed it. What were the orders for the quarter?

戴夫、拉斐爾，如果我錯過了，我深感抱歉。本季訂單量是多少？

Yes. Our orders for the quarter were up about 11% year-on-year, and that put our book-to-bill about 1.03. And whenever I give a book-to-bill, I always try to remind everyone that we've got about 60% of our revenues that go on consignment. So we don't carry backlog. We get orders running up to the quarter. They're all -- they happen when the revenue happens. So always be cautious on both of those numbers. You have a follow-on, Ambrish?

是的。本季訂單量年增約 11%，訂單出貨比約為 1.03。每當我提交圖書帳單時，我總是提醒大家，我們大約 60% 的收入都來自寄賣。所以我們沒有積壓訂單。我們收到的訂單一直排到了季度末。它們都是──它們都發生在收入產生的時候。所以，對於這兩個數字一定要保持謹慎。安布里什，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes, I did. Geo-wise, was there any geos that stood out as stronger, weaker as you went through the quarter?

是的，我做了。從地理位置來看，在這個季度中，有沒有哪些地理位置顯得比較強，哪些比較弱？

Yes. So from a geo standpoint, we had revenue up in 3 of the 4 regions from a year ago. So Asia was up followed by the U.S. and Europe. Japan was down. A couple of comments. So first, I'll make the comment that, that is measured by where we ship the product, not where it's consumed. So we -- usually, our regional shipments don't often reflect the broader macro in a particular region. And the second thing that I'll add is, from a Japan standpoint, we are seeing that companies in Japan are building products in other regions of the world. So as products get designed in Japan, they actually may be produced in other regions. So I wouldn't look too much on that as well.

是的。從地理角度來看，我們在 4 個地區中的 3 個地區的收入比一年前有所成長。因此，亞洲股市上漲，其次是美國和歐洲。日本戰敗了。幾點說明。首先，我要說明的是，這是根據產品出貨地點來衡量的，而不是根據產品消費地點來衡量的。因此，通常情況下，我們的區域出貨量並不能反映特定區域的整體宏觀情況。第二點我想補充的是，從日本的角度來看，我們看到日本公司正在世界其他地區生產產品。因此，雖然產品是在日本設計的，但實際上可能是在其他地區生產的。所以我覺得也不必太在意這一點。

We'll take a question from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

我們將回答來自 Raymond James 的 Chris Caso 提出的問題。

Just a question on what you saw as perhaps better and worse in the quarter. And it looks like the revenues came in a little better than you'd expected. Can you talk about what was the driver of that?

請問您認為本季哪些方面做得更好，哪些方面做得更差？看來營收比你預期的好一些。你能談談是什麼原因導致了這種情況嗎？

Yes, Chris. So the revenues came in within our expectations for the quarter. Certainly, they're in the upper half of our expectations. And I would just say that, of course, that was driven by industrial and automotive. And I'd just say, that strength we saw very, very broadly. So there wasn't one specific thing that we'd point to. And I think again that highlights one of those competitive advantages of diversity and long-lived positions that we can see that kind of strength, and it comes through and shows up even on the top line. You have a follow-up?

是的，克里斯。因此，本季營收符合我們的預期。當然，他們的表現超出了我們的預期。我只想說，這當然是由工業和汽車產業所推動的。我只想說，我們看到的這種力量非常非常廣泛。所以，我們並沒有指出具體是哪一件事。我認為這再次凸顯了多元化和長期職位帶來的競爭優勢之一，我們可以看到這種優勢，而這種優勢甚至體現在營收上。您還有後續問題嗎？

I do. And I guess, we've been in a situation where business conditions have been stable, if not pretty good, for a while. And I know you guys have been doing this a while. It's -- whenever things are good in semis, we wonder how long it's going to last. Can you talk about perhaps for what we're seeing now, what perhaps is different than what we've seen in past cycles? Are there things that TI is doing differently? Are there things within the industry that are different as compared to last cycle such that things would be more stable now?

我願意。我想，我們已經處於一種商業環境穩定，甚至可以說是相當不錯的狀態一段時間了。我知道你們做這件事已經有一段時間了。每當準決賽情況一片大好時，我們都會想知道這種好勢頭能持續多久。您能否談談我們現在看到的情況，與過去週期中看到的情況有何不同？德州儀器 (TI) 有哪些與眾不同的做法？與上一個週期相比，產業內有哪些不同之處，使得現在的產業更加穩定？

You know what? What I'm going to point out for this question is that we are now a much larger company in terms of industrial and automotive. Our percent of revenue is -- so as of the end of last year, it was 54%. If you go back a few years ago, that number was sub-40%, and that provides inherent stability to our revenue because that revenue comes from many, many customers; many, many sectors within industrial and many end equipments. Now that doesn't mean that we would be immune from a correction. I think a correction would -- short term or medium term, would affect all those sectors. But the important point is that, longer term, this is the place where we want to be because this is -- in both of those end markets, automotive and industrial, that's where the content is growing. So even if there's -- or when there is a correction and we go through that, the end point down the road, 10, 15, 20 years from now, is still the same, which is more and more content in those end markets.

你知道嗎？針對這個問題，我想指出的是，就工業和汽車領域而言，我們現在是一家規模大得多的公司。我們的收入百分比是——截至去年年底，是 54%。幾年前，這個數字還不到 40%，這為我們的收入提供了內在的穩定性，因為這些收入來自眾多客戶；工業領域的眾多行業和眾多終端設備。但這並不代表我們就能免於調整。我認為，無論是短期或中期，市場調整都會影響所有這些產業。但重要的是，從長遠來看，這正是我們想要發展的地方，因為在汽車和工業這兩個終端市場，內容都在不斷成長。所以即使出現調整，或是當我們經歷調整期後，10年、15年、20年後的最終結果仍然是一樣的，那就是終端市場的內容會越來越多。

We'll take our next question from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

接下來，我們將回答野村證券的 Romit Shah 提出的問題。

So just following up on the last question. Rafael, if I look at the 5 and 10-year averages for revenue growth, Q1 has been down low to mid-single digits. Q2 and Q3 have been up high singles, and then Q4 has been kind of down the most. Given your enhanced exposure to industrial and automotive, do you still think those averages are good guide posts for us as we forecast your business? Or do you think it's different now?

剛才的問題我再補充一下。拉斐爾，如果我看一下過去 5 年和 10 年的營收成長平均值，第一季的成長率一直處於個位數低至中位數水準。第二季和第三季單筆交易漲幅較大，而第四季跌幅最大。鑑於您在工業和汽車領域的投資增加，您是否仍然認為這些平均值對於我們預測您的業務而言是良好的指導原則？還是你認為現在情況有所不同？

Yes, Romit, I'll take a shot at that. I think that when we look at seasonality, I would remind you that we still have a very nice calculator business that has a strong seasonal pattern with the back-to-school. So that, along with the balance of the semiconductor business in the past, has been stronger in the second and third quarters. So for seasonality, in general, that makes second and third quarters stronger than the first and fourth quarters. If you look at those sequential changes, you'll see that you can take an average of them, but the -- out of the last 5 or 10 years, there was a very, very wide range of numbers that are in there. So when we look at it, we just talk about seasonality in those 2 quarters. So do you have a follow-on?

是的，羅米特，我會試試看的。我認為，當我們考慮季節性因素時，我想提醒大家，我們仍然有一個非常好的計算器業務，其季節性模式與返校季密切相關。因此，與過去半導體業務的平衡情況一樣，第二季和第三季的情況更為強勁。因此，從季節性因素來看，一般來說，第二季和第三季會比第一季和第四季表現更好。如果你觀察這些連續的變化，你會發現你可以對它們取平均值，但是——在過去的 5 年或 10 年裡，數字的範圍非常非常廣。所以當我們分析這個問題時，我們只會談到這兩個季度的季節性因素。那你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. Just on R&D, the last several years, in Q1, R&D has gone up by about $20 million to $25 million. This Q1, R&D was down $1 million. I know that in 2016 R&D grew faster than revenues, and then it grew about in line with revenues in 2017. Just given what we've seen so far year-to-date, is it reasonable to assume that we might see more R&D leverage this year versus the last couple of years?

是的。光是研發方面，過去幾年，第一季的研發投入就增加了約 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。今年第一季度，研發支出減少了100萬美元。我知道 2016 年研發投入成長速度超過了營收成長速度，而 2017 年研發投入成長速度與營收成長速度基本持平。僅就今年迄今為止我們所看到的，是否有合理的假設，即與過去幾年相比，今年我們可能會看到更多的研發槓桿？

We're pleased that we're allocating capital to R&D, even SG&A and CapEx and ultimately to drive top-line growth and market share. We do that based on long-term expectations on growth, particularly industrial and automotive, as I talked about earlier, given how well our portfolio matches those markets. So we'll continue to do that. And if we have opportunities to increase R&D because we have even better opportunities, we'll do that. If not, we'll keep it above where it is, but we don't have any set percent increase or number to give you.

我們很高興能夠將資金分配給研發，甚至包括銷售、管理及行政費用和資本支出，最終目的是推動營收成長和市佔率提升。我們這樣做是基於對長期成長的預期，特別是工業和汽車產業的成長預期，正如我之前提到的，因為我們的投資組合與這些市場非常契合。所以我們會繼續這樣做。如果我們有更好的機會來增加研發投入，我們就會這麼做。如果不行，我們會維持在目前水準以上，但我們無法給出具體的成長百分比或數字。

Okay. Thank you, Romit. And with that, we'll wrap up the call. Thank you all for joining us. A replay of this call is available on our website. Good evening.

好的。謝謝你，羅米特。通話到此結束。感謝各位的參與。本次通話的錄音可在我們的網站上觀看。晚安.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。