德州儀器 (TXN) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Texas Instruments fourth-quarter 2017 and 2017 year-end earnings release conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加德州儀器 2017 年第四季度和 2017 年年終收益發布電話會議。

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I'd like to turn conference over to Dave Pahl.

在這個時候，我想把會議交給 Dave Pahl。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and 2017 earnings conference call.

下午好，感謝您參加我們的第四季度和 2017 年收益電話會議。

Rafael Lizardi, TI's chief financial officer, is with me today.

TI 首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 今天與我同在。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

對於錯過發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

該電話正在網絡上進行現場直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。

A replay will be available through the web.

重播將通過網絡提供。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。

We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

我們鼓勵您查看包含在今天發布的收益發布以及 TI 最近提交給 SEC 的文件中有關前瞻性陳述的通知，以獲得更完整的描述。

First, let me provide some information that's important for your calendars.

首先，讓我提供一些對您的日曆很重要的信息。

We plan to hold an update to our capital management strategy on February 6, at 10 a.m.

我們計劃在 2 月 6 日上午 10 點更新我們的資本管理戰略。

Central Time.

中部時間。

Similar to what we've done in the past, Rafael and I will provide insight into our strategy.

與我們過去所做的類似，Rafael 和我將深入了解我們的戰略。

You also likely saw that last week we announced that Brian Crutcher will become President and CEO on June 1 and that Rich Templeton will continue as our Chairman.

您可能還看到，上週我們宣布 Brian Crutcher 將於 6 月 1 日成為總裁兼首席執行官，Rich Templeton 將繼續擔任我們的董事長。

I'm sure you'll join me in congratulating them both.

我相信你會和我一起祝賀他們倆。

Before I give you an overview of the fourth-quarter results, I want to summarize the impact the December 2017 tax reform act had.

在概述第四季度業績之前，我想總結一下 2017 年 12 月稅改法案的影響。

We applaud the reform to U.S. corporate law because it enables U.S.-headquartered companies, like TI, to compete more effectively on a global basis.

我們對美國公司法的改革表示讚賞，因為它使總部位於美國的公司（如 TI）能夠在全球範圍內更有效地競爭。

The new law recognizes and rewards companies for exporting and having manufacturing, R&D and intellectual property in the United States.

新法律承認並獎勵在美國出口並擁有製造、研發和知識產權的公司。

Regarding the financial implications, there's 3 important points I'd like to point out.

關於財務影響，我想指出 3 個重點。

First, investors should assume an ongoing 18% annual operating tax rate starting in 2019.

首先，投資者應假設從 2019 年開始持續 18% 的年營業稅率。

This rate comprehends the 21% statutory corporate rate and the benefit of exports and having manufacturing, R&D and intellectual property in the U.S. This rate does not include an estimate for stock-based compensation impact, which we provide at the start of each year.

此比率包含 21% 的法定公司稅率以及出口和在美國擁有製造、研發和知識產權的收益。此比率不包括我們在每年年初提供的基於股票的薪酬影響的估計。

Second, for 2018, investors should assume a 23% annual operating tax rate before stock-based compensation.

其次，對於 2018 年，投資者應在股票補償前假設 23% 的年營業稅率。

This 23% rate comprehends the long-term rate of 18% that I just described, plus 5 percentage points of transitional tax effect that must be expensed in 2018.

這個 23% 的稅率包含了我剛才描述的 18% 的長期稅率，加上 2018 年必須支出的 5 個百分點的過渡性稅收影響。

These transitional tax effects are mostly non-cash.

這些過渡性稅收影響大多是非現金的。

To get you to an effective rate by quarter, we're assuming about $55 million of stock-based compensation benefit for 2018, split quarterly with $30 million in the first quarter, $10 million in the second and third quarters, and $5 million in the fourth.

為了讓您按季度獲得有效利率，我們假設 2018 年的股票薪酬福利約為 5500 萬美元，第一季度為 3000 萬美元，第二季度和第三季度為 1000 萬美元，第二季度為 500 萬美元。第四。

Therefore, the effective tax rate should be about 21% in the first quarter, 22% in the second and third, and 23% in the fourth quarter of 2018.

因此，2018年第一季度有效稅率應為21%左右，二三季度為22%，四季度為23%。

You'll find this information summarized on our IR website under Financial Summary Data, as we've done in the past.

正如我們過去所做的那樣，您可以在我們的 IR 網站上的“財務摘要數據”下找到這些信息。

Lastly, in fourth quarter of 2017, our tax expense included approximately $800 million of expense that was primarily related to the recently passed tax reform act.

最後，在 2017 年第四季度，我們的稅收支出包括大約 8 億美元的支出，主要與最近通過的稅改法案有關。

This included about $700 million for the tax on indefinitely reinvested earnings, as well as about $60 million for a reduction in deferred tax assets.

這包括約 7 億美元用於無限期再投資收益的稅收，以及約 6000 萬美元用於減少遞延所得稅資產。

The charge on deferred tax assets is non-cash.

遞延稅項資產的費用為非現金。

The charge associated indefinitely reinvested earnings will impact cash flow and will be paid over 8 years.

與無限期再投資收益相關的費用將影響現金流，並將在 8 年內支付。

We'll pay about $60 million in the first 5 years, $100 million in the sixth, $140 million in the seventh, $160 million in the eighth year.

我們將在前 5 年支付大約 6000 萬美元，第六年支付 1 億美元，第七年支付 1.4 億美元，第八年支付 1.6 億美元。

This will have impact -- there is no impact to cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2017 because of these tax changes.

這將產生影響——由於這些稅收變化，對 2017 年第四季度的現金流沒有影響。

Of course, our initial estimates of the financial impact on the tax reform act could change as we refine our analysis and if any additional guidance on this new law becomes available.

當然，我們對稅收改革法案的財務影響的初步估計可能會隨著我們完善分析以及有關這項新法律的任何其他指導而發生變化。

Our long-term investment strategy remains unchanged by tax reform.

稅制改革未改變我們的長期投資策略。

With more cash available on an ongoing basis, we'll continue to invest to grow our business, to strengthen our competitive advantages and return all free cash flow to our owners.

隨著更多現金的持續可用，我們將繼續投資以發展我們的業務，加強我們的競爭優勢並將所有自由現金流返還給我們的所有者。

Again, we believe the reform to U.S. corporate tax will enable U.S.-headquartered companies, like TI, to compete more effectively on a global basis.

同樣，我們相信美國公司稅改革將使 TI 等總部位於美國的公司能夠在全球範圍內更有效地競爭。

Now I'll start with a quick summary of our financial results.

現在，我將從快速總結我們的財務業績開始。

Revenue for the fourth quarter increased 10% from a year ago, as demand for our products remained strong in the automotive and industrial markets.

由於汽車和工業市場對我們產品的需求依然強勁，第四季度的收入同比增長 10%。

Communications equipment declined, while personal electronics grew mid-single digits, but results varied by customer.

通信設備下降，而個人電子產品增長中個位數，但結果因客戶而異。

In our core businesses, Analog revenue grew 11% and Embedded Processing grew 20% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

在我們的核心業務中，與去年同期相比，模擬收入增長了 11%，嵌入式處理增長了 20%。

Operating margins increased in both businesses.

兩項業務的營業利潤率均有所提高。

Earnings per share were $0.34, including $0.75 of tax-related expenses not in our original guidance, primarily due to the recently passed tax reform act that I just discussed.

每股收益為 0.34 美元，其中包括 0.75 美元的稅收相關費用不在我們最初的指導中，這主要是由於我剛剛討論過的最近通過的稅收改革法案。

With that backdrop, I'll now provide details on our performance, which we believe continues to be representative of our ongoing strength of our business model.

在這種背景下，我現在將提供有關我們業績的詳細信息，我們認為這將繼續代表我們業務模式的持續實力。

In the fourth quarter, our cash flow from operations was $1.9 billion.

第四季度，我們的運營現金流為 19 億美元。

We believe that free cash flow growth, especially on a per share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term.

我們認為，自由現金流的增長，尤其是在每股的基礎上，對於長期最大化股東價值是最重要的。

Free cash flow for the trailing 12-month period was $4.7 billion, up 14% from a year ago.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 47 億美元，同比增長 14%。

Free cash flow margin for the same period was 31.2% of revenue, up from 30.5% a year ago.

同期的自由現金流利潤率為收入的 31.2%，高於一年前的 30.5%。

We continue to benefit from an improved product portfolio that's long-lived and diverse, and the efficiencies of our manufacturing strategy, the latter of which includes our growing 300-millimeter Analog output.

我們將繼續受益於經久耐用且多樣化的改進產品組合，以及我們製造戰略的效率，後者包括我們不斷增長的 300 毫米模擬輸出。

We believe free cash flow will be valued only if it's productively invested in the business or returned to owners.

我們認為，只有在對企業進行有效投資或返還給所有者時，才會對自由現金流進行估值。

In 2017, we returned $4.7 billion of cash to owners through a combination of dividends and stock repurchases.

2017 年，我們通過股息和股票回購相結合的方式向所有者返還了 47 億美元的現金。

I will now provide some details by segment.

我現在將按部分提供一些詳細信息。

From a year-ago quarter, Analog grew 11% due to Power and Signal Chain.

與去年同期相比，由於電源和信號鏈，Analog 增長了 11%。

High Volume declined.

高成交量下降。

Embedded Processing revenue grew 20% from a year-ago quarter due to growth in both product lines, which are Processors and Connected Microcontrollers.

由於處理器和互聯微控制器這兩條產品線的增長，嵌入式處理收入比去年同期增長了 20%。

In our Other segment, revenue declined 16% from a year ago primarily due to custom ASIC, and the move of royalties, which began in the first quarter of 2017.

在我們的其他部門，收入同比下降 16%，主要是由於定制 ASIC 以及從 2017 年第一季度開始的特許權使用費的轉移。

For the year in total, Analog and Embedded each grew about 16% on broad-based growth, and combined are now 90% of TI's revenue.

總體而言，模擬和嵌入式在廣泛增長的基礎上均增長了約 16%，現在合計佔 TI 收入的 90%。

Let me describe our -- next, our revenue by end market in 2017.

讓我描述一下我們的 - 接下來，我們在 2017 年按終端市場劃分的收入。

Just as a reminder, we provide an estimate of TI's revenue by end market on an annual basis.

提醒一下，我們每年提供按終端市場劃分的 TI 收入估計值。

We break this into 6 categories: industrial; automotive; personal electronics, and that will include things like mobile phones, PC, tablets and TVs; comms equipment; enterprise systems; and everything else, which is primarily calculators.

我們將其分為 6 類：工業；汽車；個人電子產品，包括手機、個人電腦、平板電腦和電視等；通訊設備；企業系統；和其他一切，主要是計算器。

Notably, every market contributed to growth in 2017.

值得注意的是，每個市場都為 2017 年的增長做出了貢獻。

Specifically, industrial comprised 35% of our revenue, up 2 percentage points from 2016.

具體而言，工業占我們收入的 35%，比 2016 年上升 2 個百分點。

Automotive was 19%, up 1 point.

汽車為 19%，上升 1 個百分點。

Personal electronics was 25%, down 1 point.

個人電子產品為 25%，下降 1 個百分點。

Comms equipment and other were 12% and 3%, respectively, down 1 percentage point.

通訊設備和其他分別下降12%和3%，下降1個百分點。

While enterprise systems was about 6% in both years.

而企業系統在這兩年中約為 6%。

Also, we did not have a customer who was more than 10% of our revenue in 2017.

此外，我們在 2017 年沒有一個客戶占我們收入的 10% 以上。

We continue to focus on our strategy on industrial and automotive markets, where we've been allocating capital and driving initiatives to strengthen our position.

我們繼續專注於我們在工業和汽車市場的戰略，我們一直在這些市場分配資金並推動舉措以鞏固我們的地位。

This is based on a belief that industrial and automotive will be the fastest-growing semiconductor markets.

這是基於這樣一種信念，即工業和汽車將成為增長最快的半導體市場。

They have increasing semiconductor content, and these markets provide diversity and longevity.

它們的半導體含量不斷增加，這些市場提供了多樣性和壽命。

Taken together, this all translates to a high terminal value of our portfolio.

總而言之，這一切都轉化為我們投資組合的高終端價值。

In 2017, industrial and automotive combined made up 54% of TI's revenue, up from 42% just 4 years ago.

2017 年，工業和汽車行業合計佔 TI 收入的 54%，高於 4 年前的 42%。

We've established momentum in these markets and we are far from satisfied and we continue to make improvements.

我們已經在這些市場上建立了勢頭，我們還遠遠不夠滿意，我們會繼續改進。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.44 billion or 65.1% of revenue.

本季度毛利潤為 24.4 億美元，佔收入的 65.1%。

From a year ago, gross profit increased due to higher revenue and lower manufacturing costs.

與一年前相比，由於收入增加和製造成本降低，毛利潤有所增加。

Gross profit margin increased by 250 basis points.

毛利率上升 250 個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $795 million.

本季度的運營費用為 7.95 億美元。

Operating expenses on a trailing 12-month basis were up 3% and were 21.4% of revenue, within our range of expectations.

過去 12 個月的運營費用增長了 3%，佔收入的 21.4%，在我們的預期範圍內。

For the year, we have invested $1.51 billion in R&D, an important element of our capital allocation.

這一年，我們在研發上投入了 15.1 億美元，這是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。

Acquisition charges were $79 million, all of which was the ongoing amortization of intangibles, which is a non-cash expense.

收購費用為 7900 萬美元，所有這些都是無形資產的持續攤銷，這是一項非現金費用。

Acquisition charges will be about $80 million per quarter, through the third quarter of 2019, due to amortization of intangibles.

由於無形資產的攤銷，截至 2019 年第三季度，每季度的收購費用約為 8000 萬美元。

That will decline to about $50 million per quarter for the 2 remaining years.

在剩下的兩年裡，這將下降到每季度約 5000 萬美元。

Operating profit was $1.56 billion or 41.7% of revenue.

營業利潤為 15.6 億美元，佔收入的 41.7%。

Operating profit was up 17% from a year-ago quarter.

營業利潤較去年同期增長 17%。

Operating margin for Analog was 46.9%, up from 43.2% a year ago.

Analog 的營業利潤率為 46.9%，高於一年前的 43.2%。

And for Embedded Processing, it was 34.3%, up from 28.8% a year ago.

而對於嵌入式處理，這一比例為 34.3%，高於一年前的 28.8%。

Our focused investments on the best sustainable growth opportunities with differentiated positions enabled both businesses to continue to contribute nicely to free cash flow growth.

我們將重點投資於具有差異化地位的最佳可持續增長機會，使兩家企業能夠繼續為自由現金流增長做出良好貢獻。

Other income and expense declined $176 million as we signed several intellectual property agreements in the year-ago quarter that will not repeat -- or that did not repeat.

其他收入和支出減少了 1.76 億美元，因為我們在去年同期簽署了幾項不會重複或不會重複的知識產權協議。

Net income in the fourth quarter was $344 million or $0.34 per share, which included $0.75 in tax-related expenses, not in our prior outlook as we have discussed.

第四季度的淨收入為 3.44 億美元或每股 0.34 美元，其中包括 0.75 美元的稅收相關費用，正如我們之前討論的那樣，這不在我們之前的展望中。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，從我們的現金產生開始。

Cash flow from operations was $1.93 billion in the quarter, up 39% from a year ago.

本季度運營現金流為 19.3 億美元，同比增長 39%。

Capital expenditures were $231 million in the quarter.

本季度的資本支出為 2.31 億美元。

In the fourth quarter, we paid $611 million in dividends and repurchased $706 million of our stock for a total return of $1.32 billion in the fourth quarter.

第四季度，我們支付了 6.11 億美元的股息，並回購了 7.06 億美元的股票，第四季度的總回報為 13.2 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $4.47 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the quarter.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至本季度末有 44.7 億美元的現金和短期投資。

We issued $500 million of debt in 10-year notes during the quarter.

我們在本季度發行了 5 億美元的 10 年期債券。

This leaves total debt of $4.1 billion with a weighted average coupon rate of 2.05%.

這使得總債務為 41 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 2.05%。

Inventory days were 134, up 8 days from a year ago and within our expected range.

庫存天數為 134 天，比一年前增加 8 天，在我們的預期範圍內。

Now let's look at some of these results for the year.

現在讓我們看看今年的一些結果。

In 2017, cash flow from operations was $5.36 billion, up 16% from the previous year.

2017年，經營現金流為53.6億美元，比上年增長16%。

Capital expenditures were $695 million or 4.6% of revenue, consistent with our long-term expectations.

資本支出為 6.95 億美元，佔收入的 4.6%，符合我們的長期預期。

Free cash flow for the past 12 months was $4.67 billion or 31.2% of revenue.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 46.7 億美元，佔收入的 31.2%。

Our cash flow reflects the strength of our business model.

我們的現金流反映了我們商業模式的實力。

As we have said, we believe free cash flow growth, especially on a per share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term.

正如我們所說，我們認為自由現金流的增長，尤其是在每股的基礎上，對於長期最大化股東價值是最重要的。

And will be valued only if it's productively invested in the business or returned to shareholders.

只有當它有效地投資於業務或返還給股東時，才會被估值。

We remain committed to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company.

我們仍然致力於將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

Total cash returned to owners in 2017 was $4.66 billion.

2017 年返還給所有者的現金總額為 46.6 億美元。

These combined returns of dividends and share repurchases demonstrate our confidence in our business model and our commitment to return all free cash flow to our owners.

這些股息和股票回購的綜合回報表明我們對我們的商業模式的信心以及我們將所有自由現金流返還給我們的所有者的承諾。

Over the last 12 months, we paid $2.10 billion in dividends or about 45% of free cash flow, evidence of their sustainability.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們支付了 21 億美元的股息，約佔自由現金流的 45%，這證明了它們的可持續性。

Outstanding share count was reduced by 1.3% over the past 12 months and has been reduced by 43% since the end of 2004 when we initiated a program designed to reduce our share count.

在過去的 12 個月中，流通股數量減少了 1.3%，自 2004 年底我們啟動了一項旨在減少我們股票數量的計劃以來，已減少了 43%。

Turning to our outlook for the first quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.49 billion to $3.79 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.01 to $1.17, which includes an estimated $30 million discrete tax benefit.

談到我們對第一季度的展望，我們預計 TI 收入將在 34.9 億美元至 37.9 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.01 美元至 1.17 美元之間，其中包括估計的 3000 萬美元的離散稅收優惠。

In closing, I'll note that the strength of our business model was demonstrated throughout our financial performance from top-line growth and margin expansion to free cash flow generation.

最後，我要指出，我們的商業模式的實力體現在我們的財務業績中，從收入增長和利潤率擴張到自由現金流的產生。

We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are technology and manufacturing, portfolio breadth, market reach and diverse and long-lived products.

我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，包括技術和製造、產品組合的廣度、市場範圍以及多樣化和長壽命的產品。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best products, Analog and Embedded Processing; and the best markets, industrial and automotive, which I believe will enable us to continue to improve and deliver free cash flow per share growth for a long time to come.

我們將繼續通過嚴格的資本配置和專注於最好的產品、模擬和嵌入式處理來加強這些優勢；以及最好的市場，工業和汽車，我相信這將使我們能夠在未來很長一段時間內繼續改善並實現每股自由現金流的增長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael.

謝謝，拉斐爾。

And operator, you can now open the lines up for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開排隊提問。

(Operator Instructions) Renée?

（操作員說明）蕾妮？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美銀美林的 Vivek Arya。

I was wondering if you could give us some more color on what you're seeing in different end markets at the start of the year.

我想知道你是否可以給我們一些關於你在今年年初在不同終端市場看到的情況的更多信息。

When I look at your Q1 sales outlook, it's in line with consensus, seasonally somewhat conservative.

當我查看您的第一季度銷售前景時，它與共識一致，季節性有些保守。

After seasonally below -- well, below seasonal quarter you had in Q4.

在季節性低於之後——嗯，低於你在第四季度的季節性季度。

And Dave, it seems to me in somewhat contrast to the very strong macro environment.

而戴夫，在我看來，這與非常強大的宏觀環境形成了某種對比。

So is there something that you're seeing that is keeping you more conservative than usual?

那麼，您是否看到了一些讓您比平時更加保守的東西？

Yes.

是的。

Vivek, I'd first just take a look at the results in total.

Vivek，我先來看看總體結果。

If you look at the quarter, fourth quarter came in with 10% year-on-year growth.

如果你看這個季度，第四季度同比增長 10%。

We just took -- for the year, the company came in at 12% year-on-year growth.

我們剛剛接受了 - 這一年，該公司實現了 12% 的同比增長。

And if you look at the outlook, at the midpoint, we're -- we'd be at mid to upper -- I'd say upper single-digit growth, overall.

如果你看一下前景，在中點，我們 - 我們將處於中上 - 我會說整體上是個位數的增長。

So I think if you look inside of that, we continue to see strength in automotive and industrial.

所以我認為，如果你深入了解，我們會繼續看到汽車和工業領域的實力。

The exciting thing about that, of course, is that both of those markets, we think, will drive our revenue for quite some time.

當然，令人興奮的是，我們認為這兩個市場都會在相當長的一段時間內推動我們的收入增長。

I think inside of the fourth quarter, as we talked about in our prepared remarks, we did see weakness in comms equipment.

我認為在第四季度，正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，我們確實看到了通信設備的弱點。

That's a market that, traditionally, is choppy.

傳統上，這是一個動蕩的市場。

And then in PE, it's really more of a mixed bag there and more dependent or varied by customers overall.

然後在 PE 中，它實際上更像是一個混合包，並且整體上更依賴於或因客戶而異。

But again, I -- with double-digit growth in the quarter and a 12% growth per year, I'd consider that as still strong performance.

但同樣，我 - 本季度實現兩位數增長和每年 12% 的增長，我認為這仍然是強勁的表現。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So maybe let me ask the same question in a different way.

所以也許讓我以不同的方式問同樣的問題。

So you grew 10% in Q4.

所以你在第四季度增長了 10%。

When I look at Q1, it's pointing to a somewhat deceleration to 7%, which is still impressive, but a deceleration regardless.

當我查看第一季度時，它指向的是略微減速至 7%，這仍然令人印象深刻，但無論如何都會減速。

So are you seeing anything in the environment that is making you conservative?

那麼，您是否在環境中看到任何讓您變得保守的東西？

And sort of follow-on from that is, do you think this is a sustainable growth rate, right?

隨之而來的是，你認為這是一個可持續的增長率，對嗎？

I know you don't give out full-year guidance, but do you see the trend sustainable for the rest of the year?

我知道你沒有給出全年指導，但你認為今年剩餘時間的趨勢可持續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So now let me not try to forecast the year.

所以現在讓我不要試圖預測年份。

I think, as you said, upper single digits is still strong growth.

我認為，正如你所說，高個位數仍然是強勁的增長。

I think when we look at the macro environment, it overall seems constructive, continues to seem constructive for us.

我認為，當我們審視宏觀環境時，總體上似乎是建設性的，對我們來說仍然是建設性的。

We did see changes in comms equipment.

我們確實看到了通訊設備的變化。

I wouldn't describe that as something that's necessarily a macro effect.

我不會將其描述為必然是宏觀效應的東西。

It is just what it is.

它就是這樣。

That's -- it continues to be a choppy market for us, but a good market.

那是 - 對我們來說，它仍然是一個波濤洶湧的市場，但是一個很好的市場。

It's a market that we continue to invest in and can make money there for some time.

這是一個我們繼續投資的市場，並且可以在那裡賺錢一段時間。

So overall, I think we're positioned well.

所以總的來說，我認為我們的定位很好。

And again, I think the overall environment is constructive.

再說一次，我認為整體環境是建設性的。

Yes.

是的。

Let me just add to that.

讓我補充一下。

If you take a step back and think about on the sustainability question, the way we think about our market, it starts with a global GDP growth, 3% to 4% or so.

如果你退後一步思考可持續性問題，我們看待市場的方式，它始於全球 GDP 增長，大約 3% 到 4%。

And then semiconductors should grow on top of that, 1% to 2%, particularly in the markets that we focus, which are industrial and automotive, and that's because that's where the semiconductor content is happening.

然後半導體應該在此基礎上增長 1% 到 2%，特別是在我們關注的市場，即工業和汽車市場，這是因為這就是半導體含量正在發生的地方。

And then on top of that, we've been gaining share in Analog and Embedded on a pretty consistent basis.

最重要的是，我們一直在以相當一致的方式獲得模擬和嵌入式領域的份額。

So you can think of another point or 2 on top of that for our long-term sustainable growth.

因此，您可以在此之上為我們的長期可持續增長考慮另一點或第二點。

Of course, any one quarter, even any one year, that can vary.

當然，任何一個季度，甚至任何一年，都會有所不同。

But over the long haul, this is a great market to be in particularly industrial and automotive, which is where we're focusing our investments, our efforts because that's where the semiconductor content growth is happening.

但從長遠來看，這是一個巨大的市場，尤其是工業和汽車市場，這是我們關注投資和努力的地方，因為這是半導體含量增長的地方。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

The 21% roughly growth that you had in your industrial business, any color you could provide, Dave, on what's going on underneath the covers there?

你的工業業務大致增長了 21%，你可以提供任何顏色，戴夫，那裡發生了什麼？

That's a very, very impressive number.

這是一個非常非常令人印象深刻的數字。

And kind of getting at the same sustainability question, any color that you could give?

有點像同樣的可持續性問題，你能給出什麼顏色？

Looking backwards might be helpful.

向後看可能會有所幫助。

Yes.

是的。

You bet, Ross.

你打賭，羅斯。

And I think if you -- the numbers that we provide you are rounded percentages.

我想如果你——我們提供給你的數字是四捨五入的百分比。

So I would describe industrial growth, overall, in the upper teens when you look year-over-year.

因此，當您逐年查看時，我會總體上描述高齡青少年的工業增長。

And that growth is based on almost all sectors growing, so very, very diverse.

這種增長基於幾乎所有行業的增長，非常非常多樣化。

That's one of the things that we like about it.

這是我們喜歡它的地方之一。

And for those that listen to us regularly, you've heard me talk about the 14 different sectors that we have that make up the industrial segment, and that will include things like factory automation and control, industrial transport, things that you would expect.

對於那些經常聽我們講話的人來說，你聽過我談論我們擁有的 14 個不同的行業，它們構成了工業領域，其中包括工廠自動化和控制、工業運輸等你所期望的東西。

But it also includes things like medical and health care, avionics, appliances and those types of things, perhaps the financial community wouldn't put inside of industrial but behaves much in the same way, so that's why they're in there.

但它也包括醫療和保健、航空電子設備、電器和那些類型的東西，也許金融界不會把它放在工業裡面，但它們的行為方式也差不多，所以這就是他們在那裡的原因。

So we're really pleased with that growth.

所以我們對這種增長感到非常滿意。

What's encouraging about it, again, is it's coming from very diverse sources and it's really about content gains inside of that market.

再次令人鼓舞的是，它來自非常多樣化的來源，而且它實際上是關於該市場內部的內容收益。

Do you have a follow-on, Ross?

羅斯，你有後續嗎？

Yes, I do.

是的，我願意。

Switching over to the OpEx side, for either you or for Rafael.

為您或 Rafael 切換到運營支出方面。

In 2017, there's a big delta between what R&D did versus SG&A.

2017 年，研發與 SG&A 之間存在巨大差異。

And then now, also, that you have some better profitability with the tax rate being lower, I really just wanted to see what your views are on the OpEx side of the equation, overall.

然後現在，您在稅率較低的情況下獲得了更好的盈利能力，我真的只是想看看您對等式的運營支出方面的看法，總體而言。

Will you spend more now that you have more cash?

現在你有更多的現金，你會花更多的錢嗎？

And how will it be split if there's any differences between those 2 buckets?

如果這兩個桶之間有任何差異，它將如何拆分？

Yes.

是的。

Ross, what I would tell you is that, first, on a high-level OpEx to us is an investment, whether it's R&D or SG&A.

羅斯，我要告訴你的是，首先，對我們來說，高水平的運營支出是一項投資，無論是研發還是 SG&A。

In the case of R&D, obviously, we're putting out more differentiated products, focused on industrial and automotive to strengthen our competitive advantages.

在研發方面，顯然，我們正在推出更多差異化產品，專注於工業和汽車領域，以加強我們的競爭優勢。

In this case, the breadth of portfolio, of course.

在這種情況下，當然是投資組合的廣度。

In the case of SG&A, there are a lot of things there.

就 SG&A 而言，那裡有很多東西。

But one thing that we've been focusing on is demand creation.

但我們一直關注的一件事是創造需求。

And that strengthened another competitive advantage, which is the channel advantages.

而這強化了另一個競爭優勢，那就是渠道優勢。

So we did that in 2017.

所以我們在 2017 年做到了。

Our OpEx was up about 3%, and we're going to continue focusing our investments on that.

我們的運營支出增長了約 3%，我們將繼續將投資重點放在這上面。

On the second part of your question on tax reform -- and by the way, on that, let me step back for a second.

關於你關於稅收改革的問題的第二部分——順便說一下，讓我退後一步。

Dave said during the call that it's a great thing.

戴夫在電話中說這是一件很棒的事情。

We're very happy with tax reform.

我們對稅收改革感到非常滿意。

It's going to enable companies like TI, a U.S.-based company, to compete more effectively on a global basis.

這將使像 TI 這樣的美國公司能夠在全球範圍內更有效地競爭。

Now we're on an even playing field versus companies outside the United States.

現在，我們與美國以外的公司處於公平競爭的環境中。

So that is great.

所以這很棒。

But our long-term investment strategy remains unchanged.

但我們的長期投資策略保持不變。

We're going to continue investing to strengthen our competitive advantages as we have talked about before.

正如我們之前所說，我們將繼續投資以加強我們的競爭優勢。

And now with more cash, we're going to do that and then we're going to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company, which is our commitment as part of our competitive advantage -- I'm sorry, our capital management strategy that we have been talking about for a number of years.

現在有了更多現金，我們將這樣做，然後我們將把所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者，這是我們作為競爭優勢的一部分的承諾——對不起，我們的我們多年來一直在談論的資本管理策略。

We move next to Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們和高盛一起搬到 Toshiya Hari 旁邊。

Dave, you talked a little bit about the communications equipment market and the weakness there.

戴夫，你談到了通信設備市場和那裡的弱點。

Was that focused on -- around a single region or a couple of customers or was it broad-based?

是專注於一個地區還是幾個客戶，還是基礎廣泛？

And when would you expect that part of the market to inflect to the upside?

您預計這部分市場何時會向上移動？

Yes.

是的。

Well, first, I would say that it was different by customer and it impacted our segments differently because of that exposure.

好吧，首先，我會說它因客戶而異，並且由於這種曝光，它對我們的細分市場產生了不同的影響。

And it's really hard to predict what direction that market will take over the long term.

從長遠來看，很難預測市場將走向何方。

The good news is that our position even there is very broad-based, so we will be reflective of the overall market.

好消息是，我們的立場即使有非常廣泛的基礎，所以我們會反映整個市場。

People will continue to buy communications equipment, basestations and things for some time to come.

在未來一段時間內，人們將繼續購買通信設備、基站和其他東西。

We continue to invest and position ourselves well for newer technologies as they come out.

隨著新技術的問世，我們將繼續投資並做好自己的定位。

So that includes trends like carrier aggregation or massive, multiple antennas that we'll see in later 4G as well as 5G standards.

這包括我們將在以後的 4G 和 5G 標準中看到的載波聚合或大規模多天線等趨勢。

So we're very confident about those positions.

所以我們對這些職位非常有信心。

And in the short term, the market will be what the market will be.

而在短期內，市場將成為市場。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I had a question on inventory at TI, what you see in the distribution channel and also your end customers, specifically on your own inventory?

我有一個關於 TI 庫存的問題，您在分銷渠道和最終客戶中看到了什麼，特別是您自己的庫存？

I was a little bit surprised to see inventory tick up on a sequential basis.

看到庫存連續上升，我有點驚訝。

I think, historically, Q4 would be flat to down, if I'm not mistaken.

我認為，如果我沒記錯的話，從歷史上看，第四季度將持平。

So if you can comment on how you would describe the inventory, that would be great.

因此，如果您可以評論如何描述庫存，那就太好了。

Yes.

是的。

Toshiya, let me start and then I'll hand it over to Rafael.

Toshiya，讓我開始吧，然後我會把它交給拉斐爾。

And I think when you look at inventory -- I'll start with inventory, the channel, it remains steady at about 4 weeks.

而且我認為，當您查看庫存時-我將從庫存，渠道開始，它保持穩定在大約 4 週。

I'll point out to those that aren't as familiar with us, it's structurally lower than many of our peers will run because of consignment programs.

我會向那些不熟悉我們的人指出，由於寄售計劃，它在結構上比我們的許多同行運行的要低。

So you'll see that as 1/2 to about 1/3 as what many of our peers will run.

所以你會看到這是我們許多同行運行的 1/2 到大約 1/3。

And we feel very comfortable at those types of levels.

我們在這些級別上感覺很舒服。

What we see down channel from customers is -- will depend on what type of arrangements we've got.

我們從客戶那裡看到的是——將取決於我們有什麼類型的安排。

If we've got a consignment program with them, we can see very -- into their manufacturing plans and their build plans because we own that material until they pull it.

如果我們與他們有一個寄售計劃，我們可以非常了解他們的製造計劃和建造計劃，因為我們擁有該材料，直到他們拉出它。

But really, our visibility ends there.

但實際上，我們的知名度到此為止。

Meaning that when they -- if they're building inventory or if they're putting inventory down channel, we can't see that.

這意味著當他們 - 如果他們正在建立庫存或者他們正在將庫存放到渠道中，我們看不到這一點。

But we see no indications of inventory that's building there overall.

但我們沒有看到總體庫存在增加的跡象。

So let me turn it over to Rafael about our inventory.

所以讓我把它交給拉斐爾關於我們的庫存。

Yes.

是的。

So let me step back and tell you how we think of our inventory overall.

所以讓我退後一步，告訴你我們如何看待我們的整體庫存。

We want to maintain high levels of customer service.

我們希望保持高水平的客戶服務。

We want to minimize obsolescence, optimize our manufacturing utilization and all these things vary depending on multiple factors.

我們希望最大限度地減少過時，優化我們的製造利用率，所有這些都取決於多種因素。

So for example, our consignment.

例如，我們的寄售。

We have many consignment engagements.

我們有許多寄售業務。

In fact, we want to continue increasing consignment engagement because we get -- we tend to get a better signal to consignment engagement.

事實上，我們希望繼續增加寄售參與度，因為我們得到 - 我們傾向於獲得更好的寄售參與度信號。

So all of that is good stuff.

所以所有這些都是好東西。

Also, step back and think about our strategy focusing on diverse customers, focusing on diverse positions on industrial, automotive where are -- we design a part in industrial, and that part may sell for 10, 20, even 30 years.

另外，退一步想想我們專注於不同客戶的戰略，專注於工業、汽車領域的不同職位——我們設計了一個工業零件，該零件可能會賣 10 年、20 年甚至 30 年。

So the inventory is good for a long, long time.

因此，庫存在很長很長一段時間內都很好。

So we don't have to worry about this obsolescence risk that maybe in the past we had with other types of focus that we had.

所以我們不必擔心這種過時的風險，也許在過去我們有其他類型的關注點。

So in this particular case, in the fourth quarter, we -- our inventory days ended up at 134, that's within our range.

因此，在這種特殊情況下，在第四季度，我們的庫存天數最終為 134，這在我們的範圍內。

And we had a chance to replenish some of our low volume, high mix of stock.

我們有機會補充一些小批量、高組合的庫存。

So we're going to -- we did some of that.

所以我們要——我們做了一些。

In fact, we're going to continue doing that because over the long haul, as we replenish that, we have inventory available to sell to those industrial and automotive customers, and be able to keep those high levels of customer service.

事實上，我們將繼續這樣做，因為從長遠來看，隨著我們的補充，我們有庫存可出售給那些工業和汽車客戶，並能夠保持高水平的客戶服務。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Dave, Rafael, maybe just a follow-up on the inventory question.

Dave，Rafael，也許只是對庫存問題的跟進。

I guess, maybe asked a different way, were you planning to grow inventory sequentially in the calendar fourth quarter or did it end up growing because some revenue upside did not materialize in the quarter?

我想，也許換一種方式問，您是計劃在日曆第四季度連續增加庫存，還是因為本季度沒有實現一些收入增長而最終增加？

And I guess, importantly, as you look out to calendar first quarter, how do you expect to manage inventory to the calendar first quarter?

而且我想，重要的是，當您關注日曆第一季度時，您希望如何管理日曆第一季度的庫存？

Will it come down from here?

它會從這裡下來嗎？

Are you taking any unusual utilization action around inventory to bring it down?

您是否針對庫存採取任何不尋常的利用措施來降低庫存？

Yes.

是的。

What I would tell you is inventory came in about as expected.

我要告訴你的是庫存按預期進入。

In -- on the second part of your question, of course, we don't get into that level of detail.

在——關於你問題的第二部分，當然，我們不會深入到那個細節。

But I would tell you that, as I mentioned to the earlier caller, we want to have buffers of inventory, particularly when addressing the industrial market, but also the automotive market.

但我會告訴你，正如我對前面的來電者所提到的，我們希望有庫存緩衝，特別是在解決工業市場和汽車市場時。

It's a good thing to have these buffers.

擁有這些緩衝區是件好事。

And we have many -- many of our products are low volume, high mix.

我們有很多——我們的許多產品都是小批量、高混合的。

So -- and by the way, those are products that last for -- we can keep them for 10 years in our shelves, and then we sell them to our customers for 20 or 30 years.

所以——順便說一句，這些產品可以持續使用——我們可以將它們在貨架上保存 10 年，然後我們將它們賣給我們的客戶 20 或 30 年。

So from a manufacturing standpoint, it makes sense to build them, keep them in storage.

因此，從製造的角度來看，建造它們並保存它們是有意義的。

And the way you build them in batches, then it's just about more efficient that way.

以及你批量構建它們的方式，然後它只是更有效的方式。

So we did that in fourth quarter and if -- depending on the market, if we can build some more in first and second, and third we'll do that again.

所以我們在第四季度這樣做了，如果——取決於市場，如果我們可以在第一和第二季度建造更多，第三季度我們會再做一次。

Yes.

是的。

And I'll just add to kind of the corollary to the point that Rafael made.

我只是補充一下拉斐爾提出的推論。

We do look at risk of obsolescence.

我們確實關注過時的風險。

So if we have a part that's a custom part primarily used by 1 or 2 customers.

因此，如果我們有一個主要由 1 或 2 個客戶使用的定制部件。

We'll tend to keep very low inventory on those parts.

我們傾向於將這些零件的庫存保持在非常低的水平。

So kind of managing that inventory stack to risk of obsolescence is something that we aggressively do.

因此，我們積極地做這樣的事情來管理庫存堆棧以防止過時的風險。

Do you have a follow-on, John?

約翰，你有後續嗎？

Just to be clear, is this a change in sort of your long-term inventory targets?

需要明確的是，這是否會改變您的長期庫存目標？

Or are we just kind of still within those targets just perhaps maybe migrating to the higher ends?

還是我們只是在這些目標之內，只是可能會遷移到更高的端？

The objective is the same.

目標是一樣的。

As far as the target, as we do every year, we look at our metrics for the capital management strategy.

至於目標，就像我們每年所做的那樣，我們著眼於資本管理戰略的指標。

And as you know, we have 10 or 12 metrics or so.

如您所知，我們有 10 或 12 個左右的指標。

So we look at those and if we need to tweak them, we tweak them.

所以我們看看那些，如果我們需要調整它們，我們會調整它們。

So on February 6, we have a call and I will go through that.

所以在 2 月 6 日，我們有一個電話，我會處理的。

And if we need to tweak some of those metrics including inventory, we will do that at that point.

如果我們需要調整其中一些指標，包括庫存，我們會在那時這樣做。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Can you just give us an idea of the breadth of the demand trends on a year-over-year basis by geography?

您能否讓我們了解按地域劃分的逐年需求趨勢的廣度？

I think, last quarter, you guys saw year-over-year growth in most geographies except for Japan, which was flat.

我認為，上個季度，你們在大多數地區都看到了同比增長，除了日本持平。

Just wondering if the strength continues to be broad-based here?

只是想知道這裡的實力是否繼續廣泛存在？

Yes.

是的。

Harlan, it was broad-based.

哈蘭，它的基礎廣泛。

We had -- we saw revenue growth in Europe, in Asia as well as the U.S. But again, this year, Japan was down.

我們看到了歐洲、亞洲和美國的收入增長。但是，今年日本再次下滑。

It's almost very similar, but I would describe that growth as being very broad-based.

它幾乎非常相似，但我會將這種增長描述為基礎非常廣泛。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes, I do.

是的，我願意。

Your Analog revenues grew by about $1.4 billion in 2017.

您的模擬收入在 2017 年增長了約 14 億美元。

And if my memory serves me correctly, you guys exited 2016 with your 300 millimeter fabs driving about $2.5 billion in revenues on an annualized basis.

如果我沒記錯的話，你們在 2016 年退出了 300 毫米晶圓廠，年化收入約為 25 億美元。

Is it therefore kind of fair to assume that you're driving now close to about $4 billion in revenues through your 300-millimeter Analog fab?

因此，假設您現在通過您的 300 毫米模擬晶圓廠賺取近 40 億美元的收入，是否公平？

So utilization, roughly about 48%?

那麼利用率大約是 48%？

Yes.

是的。

That's -- you're right in the ZIP Code, Harlan.

那是——你在郵政編碼中是對的，哈倫。

And so we ran about 50% of that capacity in our 300-millimeter fabs, which includes the Richardson fab and also DMOS6, so somewhere in the ZIP Code of about $4 billion of revenue.

所以我們在我們的 300 毫米晶圓廠中運行了大約 50% 的產能，其中包括理查森晶圓廠和 DMOS6，因此在郵政編碼中的某個地方大約有 40 億美元的收入。

And I think, as we look at that and just to take a step back, manufacturing and technology is one of our 4 competitive advantages.

我認為，當我們看到這一點並退後一步時，製造和技術是我們的四大競爭優勢之一。

300 millimeter is probably one of the best examples that we can point to inside of that.

300 毫米可能是我們可以指出的最好的例子之一。

And we have, because of 300 millimeter, when you look at the number of dies we produce on that versus 200, we just have a structural cost advantage in every wafer that we build and every dollar of revenue we put through there.

而且，由於 300 毫米，當您查看我們生產的裸片數量與 200 個相比時，我們只是在我們製造的每個晶圓以及我們在那裡投入的每一美元收入中都具有結構性成本優勢。

So that's a benefit that has -- we've accrued over the years and have increased that.

所以這是一個好處 - 我們多年來積累並增加了它。

But the great news is we continue to have a lot of headway, a lot of runway ahead of us.

但好消息是我們繼續取得很大進展，我們前面還有很多跑道。

Yes.

是的。

Just to build on that, that is part of what's supporting the free cash flow growth that we're seeing.

只是在此基礎上，這是支持我們所看到的自由現金流增長的一部分。

This year, free cash flow growth was 14% on a per share basis with 16%.

今年，自由現金流以每股16%的速度增長了14%。

This illustrates the strength of the business model with the competitive advantages, our focus on auto and industrial and Analog and Embedded.

這說明了具有競爭優勢的商業模式的實力，我們專注於汽車和工業以及模擬和嵌入式。

Our next question comes from Chris Danely with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Danely。

I guess, first question for Rafael.

我想，拉斐爾的第一個問題。

If you look at your sort of cash flow deployment over the last few years, you'll take out, I think, around $500 million in debt and then the rest of it goes to kind of 1/3 buyback, 2/3 dividend.

如果你看看你過去幾年的現金流部署，我認為你會承擔大約 5 億美元的債務，然後剩下的將用於 1/3 的回購和 2/3 的股息。

With the extra cash, can we assume those same ratios?

有了額外的現金，我們可以假設這些相同的比率嗎？

Or would you look to take out a little more debt or keep it kind of the same?

還是您會考慮多承擔一點債務或保持不變？

So Chris, a few things there.

所以克里斯，有幾件事。

Let me maybe take one at a time.

讓我一次拿一個。

First, with the debt.

首先，與債務有關。

The way we think about debt is we take on debt when economics makes sense.

我們對債務的看法是，當經濟合理時，我們會承擔債務。

And right now, the economics make sense.

現在，經濟學是有道理的。

We have $4.1 billion of debt and it's at a 2.05% weighted average coupon rate.

我們有 41 億美元的債務，加權平均票面利率為 2.05%。

So and the one we took out recently was a 10-year debt at 2.9%.

因此，我們最近拿出的是 2.9% 的 10 年期債務。

Of course, that's pretax.

當然，這是稅前的。

So economics makes sense and of course, we do it in a very judicious way.

所以經濟學是有道理的，當然，我們以一種非常明智的方式來做。

We have -- we don't have concentrated maturities and we maintain a strategic flexibility.

我們有 - 我們沒有集中的到期日，我們保持戰略靈活性。

On the first part of your question, our commitment to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company.

關於您問題的第一部分，我們承諾將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

You know us for a long time and you know that we've been doing that.

你認識我們很久了，你知道我們一直在這樣做。

This year, for example, we generated $4.7 billion free cash flow and we returned, guess what, $4.7 billion.

例如，今年，我們產生了 47 億美元的自由現金流，而我們返回了，猜猜看，是 47 億美元。

So we're committed to doing that and we do it through both dividends and buybacks.

所以我們致力於這樣做，我們通過股息和回購來做到這一點。

This year, dividends were $2.1 billion; buybacks, $2.6 billion.

今年，股息為 21 億美元；回購，26億美元。

We have a robust and flexible model to do that.

我們有一個強大而靈活的模型來做到這一點。

It doesn't have to be necessarily any particularly split.

它不一定要特別分裂。

Dividends, we like to be between 40% and 60% of free cash flow of the current year.

股息，我們希望佔當年自由現金流的 40% 到 60% 之間。

And essentially, repurchases is everything else.

本質上，回購就是一切。

Do you have a follow-up on that?

您對此有後續跟進嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And another, I guess, historical/longer-term question.

我猜還有另一個歷史/長期問題。

So in Q4, you guys are roughly on a sequential basis, seasonal.

所以在第四季度，你們大致是按順序進行的，季節性的。

And if we look at, I think, the 6 quarters before that, every quarter was probably 1% to 3% above seasonal.

如果我們看一下，我認為在那之前的 6 個季度，每個季度都可能比季節性高 1% 到 3%。

So are you seeing things, I guess, stabilizing or cooling off or any signs of that in the industry?

那麼，我猜你看到的是穩定或降溫或行業中的任何跡象嗎？

Or am I just looking at the numbers too much and doing a little paralysis by analysis?

還是我只是看數字太多，分析得有點麻痺？

Maybe more of the latter.

也許後者更多。

I'll just say when you look at the numbers, Chris, really from the top-line growth down to the free cash flow generation, you just see the strength in the business model, right?

我只想說，當您查看數字時，克里斯，從收入增長到自由現金流的產生，您只是看到了商業模式的優勢，對嗎？

We've got -- we've been investing in Analog and Embedded, they represent 90% of our revenue.

我們有——我們一直在投資模擬和嵌入式，它們占我們收入的 90%。

They both grew 16% year-on-year.

兩者均同比增長 16%。

Industrial and automotive make up 54% of that.

工業和汽車佔其中的 54%。

So we won't control the short-term demand.

所以我們不會控制短期需求。

It kind of is what it is.

它就是這樣。

But when you look at those numbers overall, I think -- at least when we look at them, we think they look pretty solid.

但是當你從整體上看這些數字時，我認為——至少當我們看它們時，我們認為它們看起來相當可靠。

The next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

Regarding the near-term OpEx trends.

關於近期運營支出趨勢。

The last few quarters, OpEx come in light at least versus Street expectations.

在過去的幾個季度中，運營支出至少與華爾街的預期相去甚遠。

I know you guys don't guide short-term OpEx.

我知道你們不指導短期運營支出。

But I would say this time it came a little -- I guess, a little higher than we had expected.

但我想說這次它有點——我猜，比我們預期的要高一點。

How did OpEx come in versus your own expectations in the quarter?

本季度的運營支出與您自己的預期相比如何？

And how are we -- how should we be thinking about as we go into Q1?

我們怎麼樣 - 當我們進入第一季度時，我們應該如何思考？

Are there any, I guess, changes or differences versus what might we ordinarily see in a typical Q1 in terms of plans?

我猜，與我們通常在典型的 Q1 中看到的計劃相比，是否有任何變化或差異？

Yes.

是的。

Stacy, first, OpEx came in about as expected.

Stacy，首先，OpEx 的出現與預期差不多。

That's the short answer to the first question.

這是對第一個問題的簡短回答。

Then before I go to the second question, let me take a step back.

那麼在我回答第二個問題之前，讓我退後一步。

I think, I alluded to this earlier, but just to mention it again, we see OpEx as investments, right, whether it's R&D or SG&A.

我認為，我之前提到過這一點，但再次提及，我們將 OpEx 視為投資，對，無論是研發還是 SG&A。

And those were up 3% for the year.

這些年增長了 3%。

So very reasonable given the growth that we're turning our key markets in Analog and Embedded, in industrial and automotive.

考慮到我們正在轉向模擬和嵌入式、工業和汽車等關鍵市場的增長，這是非常合理的。

So we're getting the results that we want from those investments.

因此，我們從這些投資中獲得了我們想要的結果。

And those investments go to strengthen our competitive advantages.

這些投資將加強我們的競爭優勢。

And in the case of R&D, maybe the easiest thing to point out is the broad portfolio that continues to grow and strengthen.

就研發而言，也許最容易指出的是不斷增長和加強的廣泛投資組合。

And in the case of SG&A, the easiest one to point to is the demand creation and everything that we're doing there.

就 SG&A 而言，最容易指出的是需求創造以及我們在那裡所做的一切。

Going to the second part of your question on the first quarter, as you know we don't get into specific details there.

轉到第一季度問題的第二部分，如您所知，我們不會在那裡討論具體細節。

All I would tell you is that, it's normal.

我只想告訴你，這很正常。

People are still going to take less vacation in the first quarter than they do in the fourth because of Christmas and Thanksgiving and other things.

由於聖誕節和感恩節等原因，人們在第一季度的假期仍然比第四季度少。

And we still have pay and benefit increases in February.

而且我們在二月份仍然有加薪和福利。

So we expect about the same as we usually expect in that transition.

因此，我們的預期與我們通常在該過渡中的預期大致相同。

Do you have a follow-on, Stacy?

你有後續嗎，史黛西？

I do.

我願意。

Around the inventory buffers that you were talking about putting in place.

圍繞您所說的庫存緩衝區。

Are you actually seeing shortages or lead times for those specific products actually beginning to extend to drive that buffer addition or you're just being sort of proactive about getting it in place now?

您是否真的看到這些特定產品的短缺或交貨時間實際上開始延長以推動緩衝增加，或者您現在只是在積極主動地將其落實到位？

And how much of the, I guess, inventory -- you guys total inventory as it stands today out of the $1.96 billion would correspond to some of these buffer areas?

我猜，有多少庫存——你們今天的總庫存在 19.6 億美元中對應於這些緩衝區中的一些？

Yes.

是的。

Let me start and then Dave will chime in on the rest of your question.

讓我開始，然後戴夫將插話你的問題的其餘部分。

But the buffer, this is nothing new.

但是緩衝區，這並不是什麼新鮮事。

We've had it, wow, 4, 5, 6 years or so.

我們已經擁有它，哇，4、5、6 年左右。

And obviously, depending on demand, strength of demand, it fluctuates if we're able to build or if we're draining the buffer, I mean, that's what they're for.

顯然，根據需求和需求強度，如果我們能夠建造或者如果我們正在耗盡緩衝，它會波動，我的意思是，這就是他們的目的。

At times, we drain them.

有時，我們會耗盡它們。

So -- and frankly, off the top of my head, I couldn't tell you how much of the $1.9 billion and change is for the buffer.

所以 - 坦率地說，在我的腦海中，我無法告訴你 19 億美元和變化中有多少是用於緩衝的。

So the bigger point is why we have the buffers.

所以更重要的一點是為什麼我們有緩衝區。

We -- we're focusing end markets such as -- industrial is the best example where you have a lot of small customers across the world, in the middle of the U.S., in Shenzhen, in the middle of Germany.

我們——我們專注於終端市場，例如——工業是最好的例子，你在世界各地都有很多小客戶，在美國中部，在深圳，在德國中部。

Small customers focused on 14 sectors, hundreds of end equipment.

小客戶集中在14個行業，數百種終端設備。

You couldn't possibly build-to-order that stuff, right?

你不可能按訂單生產這些東西，對吧？

Because there's any one customer may order a few thousand pieces.

因為任何一個客戶都可能訂購幾千件。

So what you do is you build in bigger batches, you store it and then you sell it over time.

所以你要做的就是大批量建造，存儲它，然後隨著時間的推移出售它。

And because the parts -- just in our inventory the last 10 years, then it's very affordable.

而且因為這些零件 - 僅在我們過去 10 年的庫存中，所以它非常實惠。

It makes a lot of sense to do that.

這樣做很有意義。

And we do that with very low levels of scrap in any one quarter and any one year.

我們在任何一個季度和任何一年的廢品率都非常低。

Yes.

是的。

And I'll just add, I think, when you look -- we're doing that Stacy so that our lead times can remain stable.

我想，當你看的時候，我想補充一下——我們正在做那個 Stacy，以便我們的交貨時間可以保持穩定。

And then probably coupled with that is we focus on making sure that we've got very high customer service metrics.

然後可能與此相結合的是，我們專注於確保我們擁有非常高的客戶服務指標。

So when we say we're going to ship something, that we actually ship it on that date to customers.

所以當我們說我們要發貨時，我們實際上是在那個日期發貨給客戶的。

And those 2 things combined are what give customers confidence that they can get the products that they need from us.

這兩件事結合起來讓客戶相信他們可以從我們這裡獲得他們需要的產品。

So we spent a lot of time and that's -- maybe just to highlight that, that's one of the initiatives that we've had at our company as we looked at having more Analog, more Embedded products, more industrial and automotive.

所以我們花了很多時間——也許只是為了強調這一點，這是我們公司在考慮擁有更多模擬、更多嵌入式產品、更多工業和汽車產品時採取的舉措之一。

We knew we needed to ensure that we put in place the capabilities to be able to service customers of any size and have those types of metrics.

我們知道我們需要確保我們能夠為任何規模的客戶提供服務並擁有這些類型的指標。

Yes.

是的。

And just to add a little bit to that, back on the way we look at inventory, think about the improving manufacturing asset utilization.

再補充一點，回到我們看待庫存的方式，想想提高製造資產的利用率。

If you can improve them, run the factories, not completely level because you can never do that exactly like that, but fairly level, that goes a long way to improving your manufacturing processes, your yields, your cycle times.

如果你能改進它們，運行工廠，不要完全保持水平，因為你永遠不能完全那樣做，而是相當水平，這對改進你的製造工藝、產量和周期時間大有幫助。

And that just translates into lower costs which, guess what, translates into more free cash flow.

這只是轉化為更低的成本，你猜怎麼著，轉化為更多的自由現金流。

And that goes to the strength of our business model, how we generate all that free cash flow that we have been growing consistently for what now, 14 -- 13, 14 years.

這要歸功於我們商業模式的優勢，我們如何產生我們在 14、13、14 年來一直在持續增長的所有自由現金流。

Our next caller is David Wong with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一位來電者是 Wells Fargo 的 David Wong。

So a follow-on from Vivek's question earlier.

因此，Vivek 之前的問題的後續內容。

So you're seeing a slight deceleration in your overall blended growth, but in the December quarter you had really strong growth in Analog and Embedded.

因此，您看到整體混合增長略有放緩，但在 12 月季度，模擬和嵌入式業務增長非常強勁。

Would we expect in the March quarter sort of roughly equal deceleration in both Analog and Embedded?

我們是否會期望在 3 月季度模擬和嵌入式市場出現大致相同的減速？

Or is it one more than the other?

或者它比另一個多？

Yes.

是的。

David, we provide guidance at the top level for revenue and we try not to get into the corners by markets or by products.

大衛，我們在最高級別提供收入指導，我們盡量不按市場或產品進入角落。

So now if there's something unusual going on, either if it was by market or specific customer or in one of those business units, we would call that out.

所以現在如果發生了一些不尋常的事情，無論是市場或特定客戶，還是其中一個業務部門，我們都會提出來。

And there's nothing for us to highlight inside of there.

我們沒有什麼可以突出裡面的。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

No, that's good.

不，那很好。

Okay.

好的。

With that I'll turn it over to Rafael.

有了這個，我會把它交給拉斐爾。

Sure.

當然。

Let me just finish with a few comments that -- on some key items that I want everybody to remember.

讓我以一些評論結束——關於我希望每個人都記住的一些關鍵項目。

First, the strength of our business model is demonstrated throughout our financial performance.

首先，我們的商業模式的優勢體現在我們的財務業績中。

We have strong growth in both Analog and Embedded, which are the best products, and industrial and automotive, which are the best markets.

我們在最好的產品模擬和嵌入式以及最好的市場工業和汽車領域都有強勁的增長。

That's where the semiconductor content growth is happening and we are confident that's where it will continue to happen for many, many years to come.

這就是半導體含量增長正在發生的地方，我們相信這將在未來很多很多年裡繼續發生。

Second, as I said before, we're very excited about tax reform.

其次，正如我之前所說，我們對稅收改革感到非常興奮。

It's made TI just more competitive on a global scale, so we're excited about what we can do with that.

它使 TI 在全球範圍內更具競爭力，因此我們對我們能做些什麼感到興奮。

And finally, we continue to be disciplined in executing our capital management strategy.

最後，我們將繼續嚴格執行我們的資本管理戰略。

We remain committed to returning all free cash flow to the owners of the company.

我們仍然致力於將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

Dave?

戴夫？

Thank you all for joining us.

感謝大家加入我們。

Again, please plan to join us for our capital management call on February 6 at 10:00 a.m.

同樣，請計劃在 2 月 6 日上午 10:00 參加我們的資本管理電話會議。

Central Time.

中部時間。

A replay of this call is available on our website.

在我們的網站上可以重播這次通話。

Good evening.

晚上好。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This does conclude today's presentation.

今天的演講到此結束。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。