德州儀器 (TXN) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Texas Instruments Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dave Pahl. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加德州儀器2017年第三季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄影。此時，我謹將會議交給戴夫·帕爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our Third Quarter '17 Earnings Conference Call. Rafael Lizardi, TI's chief financial officer, is with me today.

下午好，感謝各位參加我們2017年第三季財報電話會議。德州儀器財務長拉斐爾·利扎爾迪今天和我在一起。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. A replay will be available through the web.

如果您錯過了發布會，可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。本次通話正在網路上進行現場直播，可透過我們的網站收看。比賽錄影將在網路上播出。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致德州儀器 (TI) 的表現與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們建議您查看今天發布的盈利報告中有關前瞻性聲明的通知，以及德州儀器 (TI) 向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的最新文件，以獲取更完整的說明。

I'll start with a quick summary of our financial results. Revenue for the third quarter increased 12% from a year ago. Demand for our products continued to be strong in the industrial and automotive markets. In our core businesses, Analog revenue grew 16% and Embedded Processing revenue grew 17% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Operating margin increased in both businesses. Earnings per share was $1.26.

我先簡單總結一下我們的財務表現。第三季營收年增12%。工業和汽車市場對我們產品的需求仍然強勁。在我們的核心業務中，模擬業務收入年增 16%，嵌入式處理業務收入年增 17%。兩項業務的營業利潤率均有所提升。每股收益為 1.26 美元。

With that backdrop, I'll now provide details on our performance, which we believe continues to be representative of the ongoing strength of our business model. In the third quarter, our cash flow from operations was $1.7 billion. We believe that free cash flow growth, especially on a per-share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term. Free cash flow for the trailing 12-month period was $4.2 billion, and free cash flow margin was 29.0% of revenue.

在此背景下，我將詳細介紹我們的業績，我們相信這將繼續代表我們商業模式的持續優勢。第三季度，我們的營運活動現金流為 17 億美元。我們認為，自由現金流成長，尤其是每股自由現金流成長，對於長期實現股東價值最大化至關重要。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 42 億美元，自由現金流利潤率為收入的 29.0%。

We continue to benefit from our improved product portfolio that is long-lived and diverse and the efficiency of our manufacturing strategy, the latter of which includes our growing 300-millimeter Analog output. We believe that free cash flow will be valued only if it's productively invested in the business or returned to owners. For the trailing 12-month period, we returned $4.3 billion of cash to owners through a combination of dividends and stock repurchases. In September, we announced we would increase our dividend by 24% and also increased our share repurchase authorizations by $6 billion, which together reflect our commitment to return all our free cash flow to our owners.

我們持續受益於我們改進的產品組合（其使用壽命長且種類繁多）以及我們高效的製造策略，後者包括我們不斷增長的 300 毫米模擬輸出。我們認為，只有將自由現金流用於企業建設或回饋給所有者，才能反映其價值。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們透過分紅和股票回購的方式向股東返還了 43 億美元的現金。9 月，我們宣布將股息提高 24%，並將股票回購授權額增加 60 億美元，這共同體現了我們致力於將所有自由現金流返還給股東的承諾。

I'll now provide some details by segment. From a year ago, Analog revenue increased 16% due to growth in Power and Signal Chain. High Volume was about even. Embedded Processing revenue increased by 17% from a year ago due to growth in both product lines, Processors and Connected Microcontrollers. In our Other segment, revenue declined $70 million from a year ago primarily due to custom ASIC and the move of royalties to OI&E, which began in the first quarter of 2017.

接下來我將分部分提供一些細節。由於電源和訊號鏈業務的成長，類比業務收入比去年同期成長了 16%。高音量部分基本持平。由於處理器和連網微控制器兩條產品線的成長，嵌入式處理業務的收入比去年同期成長了 17%。在其他業務板塊，收入比去年同期下降了 7000 萬美元，主要原因是定制 ASIC 晶片以及從 2017 年第一季開始將特許權使用費轉移到 OI&E 業務。

Now we'll provide some insight into this quarter's revenue performance by end markets versus a year ago. Industrial demand remains strong with broad-based growth as most sectors grew double digits. Automotive demand remained strong with most sectors growing double digits. Personal electronics was about even with results varying by customer. Communications equipment grew while results varied by customer. And finally, enterprise systems grew primarily due to servers.

現在我們將按終端市場將本季營收表現與去年同期進行比較，提供一些見解。工業需求依然強勁，全面成長，大多數產業都實現了兩位數成長。汽車需求依然強勁，大多數細分市場都實現了兩位數的成長。個人電子產品市場整體水準大致相當，但結果因客戶而異。通訊設備發展迅速，但不同客戶所獲得的結果卻不盡相同。最後，企業系統的發展主要歸功於伺服器。

We continue to focus our strategy on the industrial and automotive markets where we've been allocating our capital and driving initiatives to strengthen our position. This is based on a belief that industrial and automotive will be the fastest-growing semiconductor markets due to their increasing semiconductor content and that they provide diversity and longevity of products, which translates to a high terminal value of the portfolio.

我們將繼續把策略重點放在工業和汽車市場，我們一直在這些市場投入資金並推動各項舉措，以鞏固我們的地位。這是基於這樣一種信念：工業和汽車行業將成為成長最快的半導體市場，因為它們的半導體含量不斷增加，而且它們能夠提供多樣化和長壽命的產品，這轉化為投資組合的高終值。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

Rafael接下來將審查獲利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.66 billion or 64.5% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit increased primarily due to higher revenue. Gross profit margin increased 240 basis points.

本季毛利為 26.6 億美元，佔營收的 64.5%。與去年同期相比，毛利成長主要是由於收入增加。毛利率提高了240個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $787 million and, on a trailing 12-month basis, were 22% of revenue, within our range of expectations. Over the last 12 months, we have invested $1.5 billion in R&D, an important element of our capital allocation.

本季營運支出為 7.87 億美元，以過去 12 個月計算，佔營收的 22%，符合我們的預期範圍。過去 12 個月，我們在研發方面投入了 15 億美元，這是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。

Acquisition charges were $80 million, all of which was the ongoing amortization of intangibles, which is a noncash expense.

收購費用為 8,000 萬美元，全部為無形資產的持續攤銷，這是一項非現金支出。

Operating profit was $1.79 billion or 43.4% of revenue. Operating profit was up 27% from the year-ago quarter. Operating margin for Analog was 47%, up from 41.2% a year ago; and for Embedded Processing, was 34.9%, up from 28.2% a year ago. Our focused investment on the best, sustainable growth opportunities with differentiated positions enable both businesses to continue to contribute nicely to free cash flow growth.

營業利潤為 17.9 億美元，佔營收的 43.4%。營業利潤較去年同期成長27%。類比電路的營業利益率為 47%，高於一年前的 41.2%；嵌入式處理電路的營業利益率為 34.9%，高於一年前的 28.2%。我們專注於投資具有差異化優勢的最佳、可持續成長機會，使兩家企業都能繼續為自由現金流成長做出良好貢獻。

Net income in the third quarter was $1.29 billion or $1.26 per share. This included a $38 million discrete tax benefit that was $18 million higher than our original guidance for the quarter, adding about $0.02 to our earnings per share.

第三季淨利為 12.9 億美元，即每股 1.26 美元。其中包括 3800 萬美元的獨立稅收優惠，比我們最初對該季度的預期高出 1800 萬美元，使我們的每股收益增加了約 0.02 美元。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation. Cash flow from operations was $1.72 billion in the quarter, up 18% from a year ago. Capital expenditures were $186 million in the quarter. On a trailing 12-month basis, cash flow from operations was $4.82 billion. Trailing 12-month capital expenditures were $574 million or about 4% of revenue, consistent with our long-term expectation.

現在讓我來談談我們的資本管理業績，先從我們的現金流產生情況說起。本季經營活動產生的現金流為 17.2 億美元，比去年同期成長 18%。本季資本支出為1.86億美元。過去 12 個月，經營活動產生的現金流量為 48.2 億美元。過去 12 個月的資本支出為 5.74 億美元，約佔收入的 4%，與我們的長期預期一致。

Free cash flow for the past 12 months was $4.25 billion or 29% of revenue. Our cash flow reflects the strength of our business model. As we have said, we believe free cash flow growth, especially on a per share basis, is most important to maximizing shareholder value in the long term and will be valued only if it is productively invested in the business or returned to owners.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 42.5 億美元，佔營收的 29%。我們的現金流反映了我們商業模式的優勢。正如我們所說，我們認為自由現金流成長，尤其是每股自由現金流成長，對於長期最大化股東價值至關重要，只有將其有效投資於業務或返還給所有者，才能反映其價值。

As Dave mentioned already, in September, we announced we would increase our dividend by 24% and also increase our share repurchase authorizations by $6 billion. Our quarterly dividend went from $0.50 per share to $0.62 per share or $2.48 annualized. This is our 14th consecutive year of dividend increases. And over the past 5 years, we have increased the dividend by a compounded average rate of 24%. Our total outstanding repurchase authorization was about $10 billion at the end of third quarter.

正如戴夫之前提到的，我們在 9 月宣布將股息提高 24%，並將股票回購授權額提高 60 億美元。我們的季度股息從每股 0.50 美元增加到每股 0.62 美元，或年化股息為 2.48 美元。這是我們連續第14年提高股利。過去 5 年，我們的股息以 24% 的複合平均成長率成長。截至第三季末，我們未償還的回購授權總額約為100億美元。

For the third quarter, we paid $495 million in dividends and repurchased $650 million of our stock for a total return of $1.15 billion in the third quarter. Over the last 12 months, we paid $1.99 billion in dividends or about 47% of free cash flow, evidence of their sustainability. Outstanding share count was reduced by 1.5% over the past 12 months and has been reduced by 43% since the end of 2004 when we initiated a program designed to reduce our share count. Total cash returned to owners in the past 12 months was $4.32 billion. This combined returns of dividends and repurchases and our recent announcement to increase the dividend and share repurchase authorizations demonstrate our confidence in our business model and our commitment to return excess cash to our owners.

第三季度，我們支付了 4.95 億美元的股息，並回購了 6.5 億美元的股票，第三季總回報為 11.5 億美元。過去 12 個月，我們支付了 19.9 億美元的股息，約佔自由現金流的 47%，證明了股息的可持續性。過去 12 個月，流通股數量減少了 1.5%，自 2004 年底我們啟動旨在減少流通股數量的計畫以來，流通股數量已減少了 43%。過去 12 個月返還給所有者的現金總額為 43.2 億美元。此次股利和股票回購的綜合回報，以及我們最近宣布增加股利和股票回購授權，都顯示了我們對自身商業模式的信心，以及我們致力於將多餘的現金回饋給股東的承諾。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $3.44 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter, 76% of which was owned by the company's U.S. entities. This is consistent with our long-term objective to have onshore cash readily available for multiple uses. Inventory days were 118, up 1 day from a year ago and within our expected range.

截至第三季末，我們的資產負債表依然穩健，擁有 34.4 億美元的現金和短期投資，其中 76% 由公司在美國的實體持有。這與我們長期目標一致，即擁有充足的境內現金，可隨時用於多種用途。庫存週轉天數為 118 天，比去年同期增加 1 天，但仍在我們的預期範圍內。

Our total debt is unchanged at $3.6 billion with a weighted average coupon rate of 1.93%.

我們的總債務維持不變，為 36 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 1.93%。

Turning to our outlook. For the fourth quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $3.57 billion to $3.87 billion and earnings per share in the range of $1.01 to $1.15, which includes an estimated $20 million discrete tax benefit.

展望未來。我們預計第四季度營收將在 35.7 億美元至 38.7 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.01 美元至 1.15 美元之間，其中包括預計 2000 萬美元的一次性稅收優惠。

Our expected annual operating tax rate for 2017 continues to be about 31%. For fourth-quarter 2017, we expect our effective tax rate to be about 29%, which includes about $20 million of discrete tax items, up from our previous guidance of $10 million. This is the rate you should use for your model for fourth quarter. For 2018, we're providing you with our quarterly tax rate expectations for both the operating and effective tax rates. You can find this detail on our Investor Relations website, under the Financial Summary Data section.

我們預計 2017 年的年度營業稅率仍約為 31%。我們預計 2017 年第四季的實際稅率約為 29%，其中包括約 2,000 萬美元的單獨稅項，高於我們先前預測的 1,000 萬美元。這是您在模型中第四季應該使用的利率。2018 年，我們將按季度向您提供營運稅率和實際稅率的預期。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站的「財務摘要資料」部分找到此詳細資訊。

Now to wrap up. We remain focused on growing free cash flow per share over the long term and investing to strengthen our competitive advantages. We believe our third-quarter results continue to demonstrate our progress.

現在來總結一下。我們將繼續專注於長期提高每股自由現金流，並投資以增強我們的競爭優勢。我們相信，第三季的業績繼續證明了我們所取得的進步。

With that, let me turn back to Dave.

那麼，讓我把鏡頭轉回戴夫身上。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open up the lines for questions. (Operator Instructions) Rebecca?

謝謝你，拉斐爾。操作員，現在可以開通提問通道了。（操作說明）麗貝卡？

(Operator Instructions) And first, we'll go to Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）首先，我們連線美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

This is Adam Gonzalez on for Vivek. So my first question is, last year, you guided Q4 pretty conservatively and ended up reporting growth that was about twice as fast. How would you contrast the demand environment this year versus last year? The reason why I bring this up is because your Q4 outlook of down 10% seems to be below seasonal. And I'm wondering if that outlook really holds true, what are the areas of weakness that you're seeing that's driving this?

這是替補維韋克上場的亞當岡薩雷斯。所以我的第一個問題是，去年你們對第四季的業績預期相當保守，但最終公佈的成長速度卻比預期快了大約兩倍。您認為今年的需求環境與去年有何不同？我之所以提出這個問題，是因為你對第四季下降 10% 的預期似乎低於季節性預期。我想知道這種觀點是否真的成立，你認為導致這種情況的弱點是什麼？

Yes. So I think that if you look at our guidance, I'd say that we're not indicating that anything is atypical that's occurring. I'd just remind you that whenever we've had something that's been unusual, whether that's been by market or by sector or sometimes even by customer, we've been pretty clear on that and we'd share it. And we've got nothing to share. So I'll just point out that if you look at the range of our guidance, that's going to vary and can comprehend several different scenarios. And at the midpoint, on a year-on-year basis, we'll grow about 9%, which we consider to be pretty robust. So do you have a follow-on?

是的。所以我覺得，如果你看一下我們的指導意見，你會發現我們並沒有暗示正在發生的任何事情是不尋常的。我只想提醒各位，每當我們遇到不尋常的情況時，無論是市場、行業還是客戶方面的情況，我們都會非常清楚地說明，並會與大家分享。我們沒有什麼可以分享的。因此，我只想指出，如果您看一下我們的指導範圍，您會發現它各不相同，可以涵蓋幾種不同的情況。中期來看，按年計算，我們將成長約 9%，我們認為這是一個相當穩健的成長。那你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes, I guess looking at your free cash flow per share growth, the last couple of quarters, it's kind of trended below the longer-term 8% to 10% that you traditionally see. I'm wondering why that is and what are the catalysts to get that back up to where it has been.

是的，從你們過去幾季的每股自由現金流成長來看，它的趨勢似乎低於通常的長期 8% 到 10% 的水平。我想知道這是為什麼，以及是什麼因素促使它恢復到之前的水平。

Yes, Adam. Thanks for giving me an opportunity to talk about that. The -- on free cash flow, it grew 4% on a trailing 12-month basis. And that is compared to a higher number for the revenue on the same basis. And the difference is higher working capital, particularly accounts receivables and tax payments. If you look at the accounts receivable from 3Q '15 to 3Q '16, that actually drained, whereas from 3Q '16 to 3Q '17, it built. So that is a use -- source of cash in one case and a use of cash in another case but -- and in the case of the tax payments, we had a higher -- disproportionately higher tax payments in the most recent comparison versus the previous trailing 12-month comparison.

是的，亞當。謝謝您給我這個機會談談這件事。自由現金流方面，過去 12 個月成長了 4%。而以相同基準計算，收入則更高。差別在於更高的營運資金，特別是應收帳款和稅金支付。如果你看一下 2015 年第三季到 2016 年第三季的應收帳款，你會發現它實際上減少了​​，而從 2016 年第三季到 2017 年第三季度，它卻增加了。所以，這既是現金的來源，也是現金的用途，但就稅款支付而言，在最近的比較中，稅款支付額比之前的 12 個月比較高出不成比例地高。

Next, we'll hear from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將聽取摩根大通的哈蘭·蘇爾的發言。

Solid job on the quarterly execution, the free cash flow generation and the capital return. Clearly, the demand trends are pretty strong in the markets that you serve. Maybe you could just talk about the demand trends from a geographical perspective. I think last quarter, you saw year-over-year growth in most geographies. I'm just wondering if the strength continues to be broad-based.

季度業績執行、自由現金流產生和資本回報方面表現出色。顯然，您所服務的市場需求趨勢非常強勁。或許你可以從地理角度談談需求趨勢。我認為上個季度，大多數地區都實現了同比增長。我只是想知道這種強勁勢頭是否依然普遍存在。

Yes, Harlan. I would say that certainly, the demand was broad-based. If you look across our product lines, we've got 65 to 70 different product lines, and the demand was very strong across those as well as strong across the regions. So we had revenue up in 3 of the 4 regions year-on-year in Europe, Asia and the U.S. And it was about even in Japan. So -- and again, I'll just always remind that when we give regional color, that's where we ship the product. That's what we can measure. Where that product actually ends up from a regional standpoint, we really don't have visibility into. Do you have a follow-on?

是的，哈蘭。我認為，這種需求無疑是廣泛的。縱觀我們的產品線，我們有 65 到 70 條不同的產品線，這些產品線的需求非常強勁，各個地區的市場需求也很強勁。因此，在歐洲、亞洲和美國這四個地區中的三個地區，我們的收入都實現了同比增長。而在日本，收入基本上持平。所以——我再次提醒大家，當我們賦予產品地理特色時，我們就是把產品運往那個地區。這是我們可以衡量的。從區域角度來看，我們真的不清楚產品最終會流向哪裡。您還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. On the OpEx front, great operating leverage. You drove 12% sequential growth in sales, but your OpEx declined by 3%. So you guys are driving some serious leverage here. The OpEx as a percent of sales is actually just below your target range. And so I guess the question is, what drove the sequential decline in the OpEx? And how should we think about the OpEx profile just over the next few quarters?

是的。在營運支出方面，具有很大的營運槓桿作用。你們實現了銷售額環比增長 12%，但營運支出下降了 3%。所以你們在這裡掌握了相當大的優勢。營運支出佔銷售額的百分比實際上略低於您的目標範圍。所以我想問的是，是什麼導致了營運支出的環比下降？那麼，我們該如何看待未來幾季的營運支出情況呢？

Yes, I'll take that. For OpEx, we think of that in terms of -- from a model standpoint, we think of it as a percent of revenue on a trailing 12-month basis. And for the last couple of years, we've actually been running at about 23%. And in the current trailing 12 months, we're about 22% of revenue. So we have said that in a stable environment, which we are, we can run in the bottom half of our expectations of 20% to 25%. So we've been running at about 22%. So that's well within that.

是的，我要了。對於營運支出，我們從模型角度來看，將其視為過去 12 個月收入的百分比。而近兩年來，我們的實際成長率約為 23%。在過去 12 個月中，我們的收入約佔總收入的 22%。所以我們說過，在穩定的環境下（我們現在就是如此），我們可以達到預期目標的下半部分，即 20% 到 25%。所以，我們目前的運行速度大約是 22%。所以這完全符合這個條件。

Now of course, OpEx -- to us, OpEx are investments. And obviously, that goes for R&D. But even inside of G&A, we think of a large portion there as investments. So in R&D, of course, we're focusing on industrial and automotive because those are the best markets where the semiconductor growth is happening. But on the G&A front, we have many investments there on ti.com and the demand creation just to continue building on our reach of channels, reach of markets, competitive advantage that we have talked about.

當然，營運支出－對我們來說，營運支出就是投資。顯然，研發領域也是如此。但即使在一般及行政費用中，我們也認為很大一部分是投資。因此，在研發方面，我們當然會專注於工業和汽車領域，因為這些是半導體成長最強勁的市場。但在一般及行政費用方面，我們在 ti.com 和需求創造方面進行了大量投資，以繼續擴大我們的通路覆蓋範圍、市場覆蓋範圍以及我們之前談到的競爭優勢。

Before we go to the next caller, I'd like to just make a comment on the previous question on our working capital. I want to stress that while our accounts receivables increased in that last comparison, the delta -- days sales outstanding actually decreased by 1 day. So it's at 34. So that just goes to show you the -- how healthy the accounts receivable balance is. I wanted just to clarify that.

在接聽下一位來電者之前，我想先發表一個關於我們營運資金的問題。我想強調的是，雖然在上次的比較中我們的應收帳款有所增加，但應收帳款週轉天數實際上減少了​​ 1 天。所以現在是34。這足以說明應收帳款餘額有多健康。我只是想澄清一下。

From Deutsche Bank, Ross Seymore.

來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾。

This is Jeriel on behalf of Ross. Just asking about the general end markets here. Could you provide some end market detail in terms of how they trended quarter-on-quarter in addition to year-on-year?

我是傑瑞爾，代表羅斯。我只是想了解這裡的整體終端市場狀況。能否提供一些終端市場方面的詳細信息，例如季度環比和年度同比趨勢？

Sure, Jeriel. If you look at industrial, it increased with most sectors growing. And again, we've got 14 sectors there, so fairly broad-based. Automotive increased with most sectors growing. Personal electronics increased, as one would expect as we move into the holiday build with most sectors growing there. Comms equipment was even. And enterprise systems grew due to both servers and projectors. Do you have a follow-on?

當然可以，傑瑞爾。從工業領域來看，大多數產業都在成長，工業總量也隨之成長。而且，我們這裡涵蓋了 14 個產業，所以基礎相當廣泛。汽車產業成長，大多數產業也隨之成長。正如人們所預料的那樣，隨著假期臨近，大多數行業都會成長，個人電子產品銷售也隨之成長。通訊設備狀況良好。企業系統的發展得益於伺服器和投影機的雙重普及。您還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. Just a question on your report here. So your September quarter revenues exceeded the high end of your prior guidance and it's the first time in about a year that's happened. However, gross margins expanded just 20 basis points. I think we were expecting more. So given the magnitude of revenue beat, why didn't higher revenues result in more than 20 basis points of gross margin fall-through?

是的。關於您的報告，我有個問題。所以，你們九月季度的收入超過了之前預期的上限，這是近一年來首次出現這種情況。然而，毛利率僅成長了 20 個基點。我覺得我們原本期望更高。鑑於營收大幅超出預期，為何更高的營收沒有導致毛利率下降超過 20 個基點？

Yes. What I would tell you is that generally, what we suggest and what we recommend to analysts and investors to think about, our fall-through is in the 70% to 75% range, but that is over the long haul, over a relatively long amount of time. In any one quarter, that fall-through can be a little different. Now, for example, in the comparison versus a year ago, which arguably -- I would argue it's more relevant and to have more time obviously in between, that was close to an 85% fall-through, right. The increase in gross margin was 240 basis points, just as an example, as a comparison to the sequential basis.

是的。我想告訴你們的是，一般來說，我們建議分析師和投資者考慮的情況是，我們的失敗率在 70% 到 75% 之間，但這指的是長期來看，在相對較長的一段時間內。在任何一個季度，這種虧損都會略有不同。例如，與一年前相比，可以說——我認為這更具相關性，而且顯然兩者之間有更多的時間——當時的跌幅接近 85%，對吧。例如，與上一季相比，毛利率增加了 240 個基點。

We'll go to John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

我們將採訪瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

I guess my first question, I'm just kind of curious, when you look at year-over-year growth now for the core business, Analog and Embedded, you've had very healthy sort of double-digit year-over-year growth. I'm wondering if you could kind of comment to what extent you think that's share gains, to what extent you think that is just easy compares, to what extent you think that might be a little bit of overheating relative to customer order activity. And you did a fantastic job on your own balance sheet kind of managing inventories. I'm wondering if you could give us some color around customer inventory levels.

我的第一個問題是，我只是有點好奇，從核心業務模擬和嵌入式系統的年增長率來看，你們的年增長率非常健康，達到了兩位數。我想請您評論一下，您認為這在多大程度上是市場份額的增長，在多大程度上只是比較容易得出的結果，在多大程度上可能是相對於客戶訂單活動而言的過熱現象。你在資產負債表管理和庫存管理方面做得非常出色。我想請您介紹一下客戶庫存水準的情況。

Yes. So John, I think that if you look at general market conditions, they're similar to 90 days ago and certainly continue to remain strong. However, I think it's still yet to be seen how long that will extend, over how long of a period of time. So we've got no indications of inventories growing or double ordering. And like I pointed out last quarter, history suggests we never really see that -- those types of things ahead of time. But I think, again, it's important to qualify what we can see. So we've got really good visibility into our distributors' inventory and that remains at about 4 weeks. It's even both sequentially and year-on-year. Our visibility in customer inventories will vary depending if we're on consignment or not. So for our consignment OEMs, we hold that inventory on our balance sheet. And we don't see any unusual signals or other things, like expedites, that would suggest that there's issues inside of that. And our visibility, of course, in inventory beyond that and down our customers' channels, we just can't see that, of course. So we just remain focused as we have for a long time, focusing on both our internal manufacturing and internal inventory strategies. And we're focused on trying to keep lead times steady, which they have, delivery metrics really high, because that's what gives customers confidence that they can get the product when they need it. So do you have a follow-on, John?

是的。約翰，我認為如果你看一下整體市場狀況，你會發現它與 90 天前類似，而且肯定會繼續保持強勁勢頭。但是，我認為這種情況會持續多久，持續多長時間，還有待觀察。因此，我們沒有發現庫存增加或重複訂購的跡象。正如我在上個季度指出的那樣，歷史表明我們從來沒有真正看到過這種情況——這類事情提前發生。但我認為，再次強調，對我們所看到的東西進行限定非常重要。因此，我們對分銷商的庫存情況有了非常清晰的了解，庫存週轉時間仍保持在 4 週左右。無論是按季度還是按年計算。我們對客戶庫存的可見性會因我們是否為寄售而有所不同。因此，對於我們的代工OEM廠商，我們將這些庫存計入我們的資產負債表。我們沒有看到任何異常訊號或其他跡象，例如加急處理，這表明其中可能有問題。當然，對於我們客戶管道以外的庫存情況，我們當然無法看到。因此，我們將繼續像以往一樣，專注於內部生產和內部庫存策略。我們專注於保持交貨週期穩定，而他們也確實做到了，交貨指標非常高，因為這能讓客戶相信他們能在需要的時候拿到產品。約翰，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes, I do for Rafael. As I think Harlan mentioned, you guys did a fantastic job on operating leverage in the quarter. When you look at absolute operating profits though, there's still a pretty meaningful gap between the Embedded business and the Analog business. And I think you've commented in the past that theoretically, there's no reason why that gap can't close over time. I'm kind of curious, when I look sequentially, the operating leverage in the Embedded business was particularly high. I think the fall-through was almost 86% Q-on-Q. I'm just kind of curious, have you reached a scale point in that business where we would expect follow-through to be higher from here on out and that gap to close more quickly? Any comments around that would be helpful.

是的，我為拉斐爾這麼做。正如哈蘭所提到的那樣，你們本季在經營槓桿方面做得非常出色。但從絕對營業利潤來看，嵌入式業務和模擬業務之間仍然存在相當大的差距。我認為你過去也曾說過，從理論上講，隨著時間的推移，這種差距是可以縮小的。我有點好奇，從順序來看，嵌入式業務的經營槓桿特別高。我認為季度環比下降幅度接近 86%。我只是有點好奇，你們的業務是否已經達到一定規模，我們是否可以預期從現在開始後續跟進率會更高，差距會更快地縮小？任何相關評論都將不勝感激。

Sure. Well, to your point, the profitability of that business has, in fact, improved significantly. On a year-on-year basis, profit from operations is up 673 basis points. But at the end of the day, the main objective here is to grow free cash flow. We think that is -- we believe that is what really drives value for the owners of the company. So -- and then return of that free cash flow to the owners. So we're not particularly focused on any one of those percentages because there are many ways to drive that free cash flow, and one of them is expanding the margins. But then the other one is just growing to top line at the same margin, right. So that's the key message that we're -- the core objective that we're trying to achieve.

當然。嗯，正如你所說，該企業的獲利能力確實已顯著提高。與去年同期相比，營業利潤成長了 673 個基點。但歸根究底，主要目標是增加自由現金流。我們認為──我們相信這才是真正為公司所有者創造價值的因素。所以——然後把這些自由現金流還給所有者。因此，我們並沒有特別關注這些百分比中的任何一個，因為有很多方法可以提高自由現金流，其中一個方法是擴大利潤率。但另一家公司卻以同樣的成長速度實現了營收成長，對吧。所以，這就是我們想要傳達的關鍵訊息──也是我們努力實現的核心目標。

Okay, thank you, John, and we'll go to the next caller, please.

好的，謝謝你，約翰，我們接下來請下一位來電者。

That will come from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein.

這將是史黛西·拉斯貢和伯恩斯坦帶來的消息。

This is James Williams and Shirley Hu on for Stacy. Sorry if we missed it, but we were just wondering what book-to-bill was for the quarter.

這裡是詹姆斯威廉斯和雪莉胡，他們正在為史泰西報道。如果我們錯過了，請見諒，我們只是想了解本季的帳面出票率是多少。

Book-to-bill was...

帳目到帳單的流程是…

Was 1.0.

曾為 1.0。

1.0, yes.

1.0，是的。

1.0.

1.0.

So -- and again, we always -- we give that number. I would say that always be cautious with it because we've got 60% of our revenue that's on consignment that we don't carry any backlog or don't get any orders in advance. So that's part of the reason why we don't focus on it. Do you have a follow-on?

所以——而且我們總是——我們會給出那個數字。我認為應該始終保持謹慎，因為我們 60% 的收入來自寄售，我們沒有任何積壓訂單，也沒有任何提前訂單。所以這也是我們不關注它的原因之一。您還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. We -- I guess we were just hoping for some more color on the OpEx and why it was a bit light and just how you see that trajectory going forward.

是的。我們—我想我們只是希望能夠更詳細地了解營運支出情況，以及為什麼營運支出略顯不足，以及您如何看待未來的發展軌跡。

Well, it came in about as expected. So I wouldn't characterize that as a bit light. And as I mentioned earlier on an earlier question, on a trailing 12-month basis, which is how we think is appropriate to look at, is it came in at 22%. I think in the last couple of years, it's been at 23%. So it's trended a little down in -- over the last few years, but it's well within our -- the bottom half of our expectations of 20% to 25%, which is our expectation when things are stable, which they are now.

嗯，結果基本上符合預期。所以我不會把它形容為有點輕。正如我之前在某個問題中提到的那樣，以過去 12 個月的滾動平均值計算（我們認為這是合適的衡量標準），其結果為 22%。我認為近幾年來，這個數字一直維持在 23%。所以，在過去幾年裡，它的趨勢略有下降，但完全在我們預期的 20% 到 25% 的下半部分之內，這是我們在穩定時的預期，而現在情況正是如此。

C.J. Muse with Evercore.

C.J. Muse 與 Evercore 合作。

I guess first question, forward-look outlook on gross margins, can you talk about what you're expecting mix-wise and whether that fits in with an incremental gross margin around 70% or are there are kind of puts and takes around that?

我想問的第一個問題是，關於毛利率的展望，您能否談談您對產品組合的預期，以及這是否符合70%左右的增量毛利率，或者是否存在一些不確定性？

On gross margins, what we have said before and we'll continue to say, really hasn't changed our guidance on that, is that our general expectation's to -- our revenue to fall through at about 70% to 75%. And that's over the long haul, right, not in any one quarter. So you should think about it that way. And as we continue to grow the top line, driven by our investments in Analog and Embedded from a product standpoint and industrial and automotive from an end-market standpoint, we expect to continue gaining share and that additional revenue to fall through at about those rates.

關於毛利率，我們之前說過，而且我們還會繼續說，這方面我們的預期並沒有改變，那就是我們的整體預期是——我們的收入將下降約 70% 至 75%。而且這是從長遠來看的，對吧，不是在任何一個季度。所以你應該這樣考慮。隨著我們在模擬和嵌入式產品領域的投資，以及在工業和汽車領域的投資，推動營收持續成長，我們預計市場份額將繼續擴大，而額外的收入也將以類似的速度下降。

Do you have a follow-on, C.J.?

C.J.，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes, please. Could you provide an update on where you are on the 300-millimeter? Interested in terms of utilization rates as well as some of the work you're doing on the back end and other fronts to drive even higher incremental margins.

好的，謝謝。能否提供一下300毫米版本目前的進展？我感興趣的是利用率，以及你們在後端和其他方面所做的一些工作，以推動更高的增量利潤。

Yes, you bet. I think C.J. asked that question, there are probably callers on the line and listening that aren't familiar. But we've got 4 competitive advantages, the first of which is our manufacturing and technology, and I think the 300-millimeter is a good example of that strength. The other 3, just quickly, are the breadth of the product portfolio; the -- our channel advantages, which includes the size of our sales force in TI.com; and then just the diversity and longevity of our -- across markets and sectors and customers and products, which I think leads for investors high confidence and a high terminal value of that product portfolio.

當然。我想是 C.J. 問的這個問題，可能有些打電話收聽的人不太了解情況。但我們有 4 個競爭優勢，首先是我們的製造和技術，我認為 300 毫米就是這一優勢的一個很好的例子。另外三點，簡單來說，分別是產品組合的廣度；我們的通路優勢，包括TI.com的銷售團隊規模；以及我們產品組合在市場、行業、客戶和產品方面的多樣性和持久性，我認為這能給投資者帶來高度信心，並賦予該產品組合很高的最終價值。

But why 300-millimeter matters is that we've got a structural cost advantage. So with that larger wafer size, we get 40% lower cost on the chip when we manufacture that, and most chips in the industry are built on 200 millimeters. So when we started this year, we've had about 25% of our 300-millimeter capacity footprint utilized. Essentially, most of the Analog growth this year and as we have seen for several years is supported by 300-millimeter. We'll actually give an update to that in our February capital management call on what the precise numbers are. But that revenue continues to grow on 300-millimeter and we continue to see the benefit. So thank you for that question, C.J.

但300毫米之所以重要，是因為我們擁有結構性的成本優勢。因此，採用更大的晶圓尺寸，我們在製造晶片時可以降低 40% 的成本，而業內大多數晶片都是在 200 毫米的晶圓上製造的。所以今年年初的時候，我們300毫米產能的利用率大約是25%。本質上，今年模擬訊號的大部分成長，以及我們過去幾年所看到的，都是由 300 毫米訊號支撐的。我們將在二月的資本管理電話會議上公佈具體數字。但300毫米產品的營收持續成長，我們也持續從中受益。謝謝你的提問，C.J.

William Stein with SunTrust.

威廉·斯坦因 (William Stein) 與 SunTrust 銀行合作。

You've had, for several quarters, strength in automotive and industrial, and that continues in the quarter you just reported. In the outlook, I'm wondering if there's any change in terms of the relative strength of your expected results by end market.

過去幾季以來，你們在汽車和工業領域一直表現強勁，而你們剛剛公佈的季度業績也延續了這一勢頭。展望未來，我想知道您預期最終市場業績的相對強弱是否有任何變化。

Yes. Well, as you know, we don't provide color below the top line, but certainly, if there was anything significant there, we'd call out. And I can tell you there isn't anything significant. And I think if you look at that strength inside of industrial and automotive, I think as we look at third quarter, as it has for some time, that strength has been very broad-based. So we've got 14 sectors inside of industrial. Most of those have been growing double digits for some time. We continue to direct our investments across those 14. So it's a very intentional investment and return. Same thing in automotive. So we've got diversity across 5 different sectors. All 5 of those are contributing to growth, and that diversity is across the product lines. It's across geographies. So we feel really good about that strength. Do you have a follow-on?

是的。正如您所知，我們不會在頂線以下添加顏色，但如果那裡有任何重要信息，我們當然會指出來。我可以告訴你，沒有什麼重大的事情發生。我認為，如果你觀察工業和汽車行業的強勁勢頭，你會發現，正如我們觀察第三季度的情況一樣，這種強勁勢頭已經持續了一段時間，並且基礎非常廣泛。所以工業領域下共有 14 個產業。其中大多數股票的成長率已經持續了兩位數一段時間。我們將繼續把投資重點放在這 14 個國家。所以這是一項經過深思熟慮的投資和回報。汽車業也是如此。因此，我們的業務涵蓋了 5 個不同的領域。這 5 個因素都對成長做出了貢獻，而且這種多樣性體現在各個產品線上。它跨越地域。所以我們對這優勢感到非常滿意。您還有後續問題嗎？

Dave, I do, one more. We're aware that there's been a change in compensation to distributors. It's been pretty well publicized, I think, relative to paying them for demand -- so-called demand creation. I'm wondering if there are still benefits to be made by TI, if there was anything squeezed out in the quarter just reported or anything that's still on to come either in December or beyond from that change in sort of how you work with distribution.

戴夫，我願意，再來一次。我們注意到分銷商的補償方式發生了變化。我認為，相對於付費購買需求（即所謂的創造需求）這種做法，這件事已經得到了相當充分的宣傳。我想知道德州儀器是否還能從中獲益，剛剛公佈的季度財報中是否擠出了什麼，或者在 12 月或之後，透過改變分銷方式是否還有什麼其他收益。

Yes. So, Will, again, we don't -- we no longer do pay for demand creation, as you indicated. Distributors, of course, will continue to play a role in order fulfillment for our customers. So those relationships have been evolving, especially as the reach of our channel advantages continues to strengthen. So as I mentioned earlier even in this call that, that is a unique advantage and includes both TI.com and the size and scale of our sales and apps team. So those changes were -- began implementation 3 years ago for any accounts where we had direct TI resources. That represented about 80% of the TAM. And then later last year, we implemented changes with the remaining 20%. So I'd say a good portion of that is worked through and we won't be -- it's not significant enough that it's going to make any of these earnings conference calls. So we just continue to invest in our demand creation activities, and we feel really good about the results that, that is producing.

是的。所以，威爾，正如你所指出的，我們不再為創造需求付費。當然，分銷商仍將在我們客戶的訂單履行中發揮作用。因此，這些關係一直在不斷發展，尤其是在我們的通路優勢不斷增強的情況下。正如我之前在這次電話會議中提到的，這是一個獨特的優勢，包括 TI.com 以及我們銷售和應用團隊的規模。所以這些變化——從3年前開始，針對我們擁有直接TI資源的任何帳戶實施。這約佔TAM的80%。然後，去年晚些時候，我們對剩餘的 20% 進行了調整。所以我覺得大部分問題已經解決了，我們不會——這個問題還不夠嚴重，不會影響任何財報電話會議。因此，我們繼續投資於需求創造活動，並且我們對這些活動所取得的成果感到非常滿意。

So with that, I think we've got time for one more call. Operator?

所以，我想我們還有時間再打一通電話。操作員？

And that will come from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

而這將由野村證券的羅米特·沙阿帶來。

I just want to ask about the revenue growth. If you look at sort of growth over the last 12 months, I mean, semiconductor demand, it just seems like there's a resurgence here. We certainly see that looking at the performance at your Analog and Embedded businesses. And that is more than just -- it's coming from more than just consumer confidence and how they're managing inventories. And I'm just curious. If you look at the performance of Analog and Embedded over the last 12 months, has it changed your outlook for the long-term growth of the company?

我只想問一下營收成長情況。如果你看一下過去 12 個月的成長情況，我的意思是，半導體需求，似乎出現了復甦的跡象。從貴公司的模擬和嵌入式業務表現來看，我們確實看到了這一點。這不僅關乎消費者信心以及他們如何管理庫存。我只是好奇而已。如果觀察模擬和嵌入式業務過去 12 個月的表現，這是否改變了您對公司長期成長的看法？

Yes -- I don't think so, Romit. I think that we're fortunate that we've got investments in capacity and we've got a product portfolio that is very, very diverse. It's rich in automotive and industrial, which are the best growing parts of the market. And I don't think that, that changes our outlook over the long term. And the best signal that we get from customers are orders. So we're able to respond to those if things continue to strengthen and strengthen from here. And if they go the other way, we've got a playbook ready to go if that were to happen. So do you have a follow-on?

是的——我不這麼認為，羅米特。我認為我們很幸運，我們在產能方面進行了投資，並且擁有非常非常多樣化的產品組合。它擁有豐富的汽車和工業資源，而這兩個領域正是市場成長最快的部分。我不認為這會改變我們對未來長期的看法。而我們從客戶那裡得到的最佳訊號就是訂單。所以，如果局勢持續加強，我們有能力應付這些情況。如果他們採取相反的做法，我們已經準備好了應對方案。那你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes, I mean, you talked about automotive, and one of the things that we see is that the shift to electric vehicles have a lot of momentum. And that with electric powertrains, we could see demand for power semiconductors accelerate. And I was just curious how you guys think about the opportunity in electric vehicles. Is that a subsegment that TI is uniquely positioned for?

是的，我的意思是，你談到了汽車產業，我們看到的一點是，向電動車的轉變勢頭強勁。隨著電動動力系統的普及，我們可能會看到對功率半導體的需求加速成長。我只是好奇你們如何看待電動車領域的機會。這是德州儀器 (TI) 具有獨特優勢的細分市場嗎？

Yes. I think that our investments in automotive are really directed across 5 different sectors. So powertrain is one of them, which is primarily EV. So -- but if you look at the other spaces, like Infotainment & Cluster, Passive Safety, ADAS or Advanced Driver Assist Systems, and Body Electronics & Lighting, we're very intentionally directing our investments across those areas. So certainly, as EVs become a higher mix of units that are sold on an annual basis, we'll benefit from that. But we're not dependent on it. And I think if I bring you back to our 4 competitive advantages, just that diversity and longevity, we'll benefit from ADAS systems being deployed as the industry marches forward to autonomous driving or the mix of EVs. Those are things we'll benefit from, but our business model isn't dependent on them. So we're really excited with the diversity of the design wins that we have there, and we think we've got a lot of runway there as well as inside of industrial.

是的。我認為我們在汽車行業的投資實際上涵蓋了 5 個不同的領域。動力系統是其中之一，主要指電動車。所以——但是如果你看看其他領域，例如資訊娛樂和儀錶板、被動安全、ADAS（高級駕駛輔助系統）以及車身電子和照明，我們正非常有意識地將投資集中到這些領域。因此，隨著電動車在年度銷售中所佔比例越來越高，我們肯定會從中受益。但我們並不依賴它。我認為，如果我回到我們的 4 個競爭優勢，那就是多樣性和持久性，隨著產業向自動駕駛或電動車混合模式發展，我們將受益於 ADAS 系統的部署。這些因素我們會從中受益，但我們的商業模式並不依賴它們。因此，我們對所取得的設計作品的多樣性感到非常興奮，我們認為我們在工業設計領域以及工業設計領域都有很大的發展空間。

So with that, we'll wrap up tonight's call, and thank you all for joining us. A replay of this call is available on our website. Good evening.

那麼，今晚的電話會議就到此結束，感謝各位的參與。本次通話的錄音可在我們的網站上觀看。晚安.

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's presentation, and we do thank everyone for your participation. And you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束，感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。