特斯拉 (TSLA) 2012 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Tesla Motors fourth quarter 2012 financial results Q&A call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好！歡迎參加特斯拉汽車2012年第四季財報問答電話會議。目前，所有參與者均處於聆聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時將提供相關說明。溫馨提示：本次電話會議正在錄音中。

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Jeff Evanson. Please go ahead.

現在我想把電話轉給主持人傑夫·埃文森先生。請開始。

Think you Patrick, and good afternoon everyone.

想念你帕特里克，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla Motors' fourth quarter financial results question-and-answer conference call. I am joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman, CEO, and Chief Product Architect and Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer.

歡迎參加特斯拉汽車第四季財務業績問答電話會議。今天，特斯拉董事長、執行長兼首席產品架構師 Elon Musk 和財務長 Deepak Ahuja 也出席了會議。

We announced our financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2012 shortly after the close of the market today. The shareholder letter, financial results, and webcast of this Q&A session are all available at our Investor Relations website at ir.teslamotors.com. Today's call is for your questions, and we would like to keep the call to 45 minutes today. We will conduct the Q&A session live.

我們在今天收盤後不久公佈了2012年第四季及全年財務業績。股東信函、財務表現以及本問答環節的網路直播均可在我們的投資者關係網站ir.teslamotors.com上取得。今天的電話會議旨在解答您的疑問，我們希望將會議時間控制在45分鐘內。我們將進行現場問答環節。

(Caller Instructions)

（來電指示）

I would like you to try to limit your questions to one question plus one follow-up question. During the course of this call, we may discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are predictions based on management's current expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially, due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent 10-Q filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views as of today, and should not be relied upon after today. We also disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

我希望您盡量將問題限制在一個問題和一個後續問題。在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理階層目前預期的預測。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-Q報告中提到的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。此類前瞻性陳述代表我們截至今日的觀點，今日之後不應依賴。我們也不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的任何義務。

And now Patrick, could we please have the first question?

現在派崔克，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Ben Kallo from Baird.

來自貝爾德的本·卡洛。

Thanks for taking my question. I think one of the things that investors will be focused on is the amount of churn. Could you guys just talk about where you are seeing that churn, and then how much time you think it takes for it to level off?

感謝您回答我的問題。我認為投資人關注的重點之一就是客戶流失率。您能否談談您觀察到的客戶流失率在哪些方面？您認為客戶流失率需要多長時間才能趨於平穩？

Yes. I mean, I think you may be referring to -- I think there have been some articles about Tesla wait time is reduced to a month? Is that maybe what you are referring to?

是的。我的意思是，我想你可能指的是…我記得有些文章說特斯拉的等待時間縮短到一個月了？你指的是這個嗎？

Yes, we can tie that in there too, because I have heard this argument out there, that you call the store, they say that I can get my car in a month, or 45 days. So maybe you can tie that into also, and having the record level of reservations, but then having kind of some people opt out of or take their money back, their deposit back.

是的，我們也可以把這個也算進去，因為我聽過這樣的說法：你打電話給店，他們說一個月或45天就能拿到車。所以，或許你也可以把這個也算進去，比如說，預訂量創歷史新高，但有些人可能會選擇退出，或者拿回他們的錢，也就是押金。

Yes, absolutely. I think there some articles out there that don't really accurately describe the situation. The average wait time now for a car is about five months. However, there are some configurations which are available in more like maybe six to eight weeks, which are the very high-end reservations. But it should be pointed out, like, that we are also talking about an average wait time that is on the order of five months. And in fact, if we were to close all of our stores right now, worldwide, and not have any product specialists or salespeople, we would still sell out through the year. So that's maybe an important thing that people don't quite appreciate.

是的，絕對是如此。我認為有些文章並沒有準確描述實際情況。現在汽車的平均等待時間大約是五個月。然而，有些配置可能需要六到八週才能到手，這些配置的預訂價格非常高。但要指出的是，我們討論的平均等待時間也大約是五個月。事實上，如果我們現在關閉全球所有門市，並且沒有任何產品專員或銷售人員，我們全年的庫存仍然會售罄。所以，這或許是一個人們不太重視的重要議題。

I guess, If you could just elaborate on how you're seeing demand pick up in other places outside North America, and what we should expect as the year progresses there. Then I will jump back in queue.

我想，如果您能詳細說明您如何看待北美以外其他地區的需求回升，以及我們對今年這些地區未來發展的預期，那就好了。然後我就繼續提問了。

Yes, absolutely. Right now, we have really done almost no Model S sales in Asia, and we have done very limited amounts in Europe. In fact, we only have two cars in all of Europe. That's going to change dramatically in the next few months, and we're going to start marketing heavily in Europe, and then start doing the same in Asia. We feel very confident of achieving a demand level in excess of 20,000 units a year. And, I mean, I think we will see quite a bit larger than that number as we expand to Asia and Europe and actually start marketing there. George Blakenship, here with me, George, do you want to add anything to that?

是的，絕對有。目前，我們在亞洲幾乎沒有銷售過 Model S，在歐洲的銷售量也非常有限。事實上，我們在整個歐洲只有兩輛。這種情況在接下來的幾個月將發生巨大變化，我們將開始在歐洲大力推廣，然後在亞洲也採取同樣的策略。我們非常有信心實現每年超過 2 萬輛的需求水準。而且，我認為，隨著我們擴大到亞洲和歐洲，並真正開始在那裡進行行銷，我們的年銷量將遠高於這個數字。喬治‧布萊肯希普，喬治，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. We had a press event preview in Europe at the end of October, and that it was received very, very well. At this point, the interesting thing about Europe is that we are getting a nice response in reservations, and we don't even have any display cars there yet. We will over the next couple of months. As Elon said, we will be actually sending display cars over. But right now we are still transitioning out of Roadster and into Model S in the stores without even display cars and still having a nice pickup in European reservations. As far as Asia goes, it's announced, we've announced previously that we're opening in China our first store later in the spring, and we expect a real positive results there. And we're just now starting to show Model S in Asia in Hong Kong and Japan, with stores planned for there in the latter part of this year. We really haven't started actually displaying our car to customers hardly at all anywhere outside of North America, yet about 25% of our reservations are outside North America. So, and in North America, you probably saw in Q4, in our stores in North America, we had 1.6 million people go through the stores just in Q4. So that's still -- it is wintertime so don't have as much traffic as you do at Christmas, but we expect to have a really nice increase in traffic in our North America store this year. The stores are working.

是的。十月底我們在歐洲舉行了記者會預展，反應非常熱烈。目前，歐洲市場有趣的一點是，我們的預訂量反應不錯，我們甚至還沒有在那裡展示任何一輛展車。未來幾個月我們會有。正如埃隆所說，我們實際上會把展車送到那裡。但目前我們仍在門市中從Roadster過渡到Model S，甚至沒有展示車，但歐洲的預訂量仍在穩定成長。至於亞洲市場，我們已經宣布，我們之前宣布將於春季晚些時候在中國開設第一家門市，我們預計那裡會取得積極的成果。我們現在才剛開始在香港和日本展示Model S，並計劃在今年下半年在那裡開設門市。我們實際上還沒有在北美以外的任何地方向客戶展示我們的汽車，但我們大約25%的預訂來自北美以外。在北美，你可能在第四季就看到了，光是在第四季度，我們北美的門市就有160萬人次光顧。雖然現在還是冬季，客流量不如聖誕節那麼多，但我們預計今年北美門市的客流量會大幅成長。門市運作良好。

Thanks guys. Congrats on the progress throughout 2012.

謝謝大家。恭喜你們在2012年的進步。

Ben Schuman from Pacific Crest Securities.

太平洋皇冠證券公司的本舒曼。

Hi guys, thanks. Can you give us any idea of what the regulatory credit revenue was in Q4?

大家好，謝謝。您能告訴我們第四季度監管信貸收入是多少嗎？

Deepak, do want to comment on that?

Deepak，你想對此發表評論嗎？

No, I think for us, the way we look at regulatory credit is that it's great to get that, it's a positive stream of revenue, but it's unpredictable, and as we look forward, we are much more focused on getting to profitability and achieving our targets without the benefit of the regulatory credits.

不，我認為對我們來說，我們看待監管信貸的方式是，獲得監管信貸很好，這是一個積極的收入來源，但它是不可預測的，展望未來，我們更加專注於在沒有監管信貸的情況下實現盈利和目標。

Yes, exactly. And in fact, maybe to just clarify it further. As people may recall, there were three firm things that I promised we would do. That we would start production last year, earlier than July, and we started in June; that we will get to 20,000 units a year; and that -- I'm sorry, that we would deliver 20,000 units in 2013; and that by the end of 2013 we would exceed 25% gross margin. And I want to be clear that, that 25% does not include regulatory credits.

是的，確實如此。事實上，也許我只是想進一步澄清一下。大家可能還記得，我曾經承諾過三件我們會做的事。第一，我們將在去年7月之前開始生產，而且是在6月份開始的；第二，我們將達到年產量2萬台；第三，抱歉，我們將在2013年交付2萬台；第四，到2013年底，我們的毛利率將超過25%。我想明確一點，這25%不包括監管信貸。

Okay, great. And then can you maybe give us an update on the quality control situation? Just in terms of what percentage of the cars are still getting some sort of post-production touch-up work?

好的，太好了。那您能跟我們介紹一下品質管制的最新情況嗎？比如說，還有多少比例的車還在進行後期修整？

We actually don't have those figures handy. Wasn't expecting that question. It has dropped dramatically.

我們手頭上實際上沒有這些數據。沒想到我會問這個問題。數據確實大幅下降了。

I think the ability for us to produce cars at a steady rate of 400-plus a week is very much linked to our ability to produce quality cars on the line. And so those go hand-in-hand, and it has continued to improve significant.

我認為，我們能夠以每週400多輛的穩定速度生產汽車，很大程度上取決於我們生產線上生產高品質汽車的能力。因此，這兩者相輔相成，而且我們的品質一直在顯著提高。

Yes, there was a time several months ago where every car that came off the line would require some degree of rectification, but now that is a fairly small percentage. I don't know the exact percentage on hand, but it's a fairly small percentage. The other thing that's also worth noting is that anything which is software-related can be addressed by an over-the-air update, which is something that no other car company can do, and I think that's actually worked quite well.

是的，幾個月前曾經有一段時間，每輛下線的汽車都需要一定程度的整改，但現在這個比例相當小了。我不知道具體的比例是多少，但這個比例確實相當小。另外值得注意的是，任何與軟體相關的問題都可以透過無線更新來解決，這是其他汽車公司做不到的，而且我認為這種方法實際上效果很好。

Great, thanks guys.

太好了，謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Patrick Archambault from Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Patrick Archambault。

Great. Thank you very much. I guess my first question is, just given what you have said, when you're looking at net reservations, I think you said cancellations were going to be similar to what you saw in Q4. Production, you have obviously the guidance of 4500. Obviously, dependent on sort of what you do in terms of reservations during the quarter, but it sounds like that net reservation number is probably going to grind down a little bit in Q1, maybe even Q2, before it is kind of peaking up again. And is that correct? And sort of how do think about the trajectory of that overall net reservation number for this year?

太好了，非常感謝。我的第一個問題是，鑑於您剛才所說的，當您查看淨預訂量時，我認為您說過取消預訂的數量將與第四季度類似。生產部門，您給的指導數字顯然是4500。當然，這取決於您在本季度的預訂情況，但聽起來淨預訂量在第一季度，甚至第二季度可能會有所下降，然後才會再次達到高峰。是這樣嗎？您如何看待今年整體淨預訂量的走勢？

Sure. Well, our intention is really not to have people wait six months for a car. We much prefer that our demand, generation, and production are closely synched, so that you order a car, you get it in less than a month, really. You'd ideally want to get a car within maybe a few weeks, or something like that. So it's not our intent to have a long waiting list. I think that's pretty inconvenient for people. The limitation on production, I mean where we said we think we can do at least 4500 this quarter, that is not in any way a demand, just to be clear, in any way a demand-related thing. That is purely a function of us being able to do steady-state production and do so efficiently. Our focus in Q1 is on production efficiency, improving gross margin, and making sure customers are really happy when they receive their car. It's important for us, I think, to operate at that steady state for a bit before we try to drive the number higher. But I do want to emphasize, we are not demand constrained. We are intentionally production constrained. Yes, That's, I think, a really important consideration, yes.

當然。我們的本意並非是想讓人們等上六個月才能買到車。我們更希望需求、生產和生產能緊密同步，這樣你下單後就能在一個月內拿到車。理想情況下，你最好能在幾週左右拿到車。所以我們不想讓大家等太久。我覺得這會給人帶來很多不便。產量限制，我的意思是，我們之前說過本季至少能生產4500輛，但這絕不是需求，需要明確的是，這絕對不是需求相關的。這純粹取決於我們能否保持穩定的生產狀態並且有效率地生產。我們第一季的重點是提高生產效率、提高毛利率，以及確保客戶在收到車時感到滿意。我認為，在試圖提高產量之前，保持一段時間的穩定狀態對我們來說很重要。但我想強調的是，我們並不受需求制約。我們有意限制產量。是的，我認為這是一個非常重要的考慮因素。

Thanks, that is helpful color. If I can just squeeze one quick one in for Deepak. On cash flow, I think you said Q1 would be break-even. Can you help us, from a modeling standpoint, think about the cash flow cadence as we're working through 2013? When is it that you would expect to move to positive? Understanding that there is obviously some seasonality elements to the production and working capital and what-have-you.

謝謝，這很有幫助。我能否抽出一點時間給Deepak。關於現金流，我記得您說過第一季會達到損益兩平。能否從模型的角度，幫我們估算2013年的現金流節奏？您預計什麼時候會轉為正值？當然，生產、營運資本等等都會受到一些季節性因素的影響。

Patrick, our focus, as Elon indicated, is on a variety of cost reduction and operations stabilization projects, which are all going to help us continue to generate more cash from the operations as each quarter goes by. Not sure if I can give you any further guidance beyond that. We feel very comfortable where we are as we look at our cash flows from operations. So I think we are in a good place.

派崔克，正如埃隆所說，我們的重點是各種成本削減和營運穩定項目，這些項目都將幫助我們在每個季度持續從營運中創造更多現金。除此之外，我不確定能否給您更多指導。從營運現金流來看，我們對目前的狀況非常滿意。所以我認為我們目前處於一個好的狀態。

Yes. Okay, but there will be -- it will swing to positive during the year? I guess, would that be the --

是的。好的，但今年會轉正嗎？我想，那會是…

Of course.

當然。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

And I think the key focus here is that we are starting the quarter and 2013 here being profitable, and then we just continue to grow on that.

我認為這裡的重點是，我們在本季度和 2013 年開始就實現盈利，然後我們將繼續在此基礎上發展。

Yes. I mean, I think it starts with emphasizing this point, which is we really have very high confidence that we will have a profitable first quarter. And this is only the very first quarter that we actually have been at our target production rate. So we've had very little time to work on production efficiencies, improvements to gross margin, and all that. And despite all that, due to an enormous amount of hard work by a really dedicated group of people at Tesla, we're going to be profitable. And I think that's a pretty big deal. That's really an enormous amount of blood, sweat, and tears to get there. It really can't -- it would be difficult for me to overstate the level of difficulty. But we are going to do it. And I that's, I think -- so we're really proud of that, and I feel like we're halfway through the first quarter, and we can say that we are confident.

是的。我的意思是，我認為首先要強調這一點，那就是我們對第一季獲利非常有信心。而這只是我們真正達到目標生產力的第一個季度。所以我們幾乎沒有時間去提高生產效率、提升毛利率等等。儘管如此，由於特斯拉一群真正敬業的員工的辛勤工作，我們最終還是會獲利。我認為這是一件非常重要的事情。為了實現這一目標，我們付出了巨大的心血和汗水。這真的很難——我很難用言語來形容它的難度。但我們會做到的。我認為——我們為此感到非常自豪，我覺得我們已經完成了第一季的一半，我們可以說我們充滿信心。

Great. Thanks a lot guys.

太好了！非常感謝大家。

Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Good evening. This is EJ in for Adam. Could we step through your 1Q guidance for a bit? Given your guidance for 4500 deliveries, mid-teen gross margins, and that you're calling for a 15% reduction in R&D versus 4Q, and for SG&A to increase moderately, I'm having a bit of trouble getting to the slightly positive net income on a non-GAAP basis. Is there any re-bucketing of R&D cost going on? Or are there other significant developmental service revenue that we are missing here?

晚安.我是EJ，代替Adam。我們可以簡單介紹一下您第一季的業績指引嗎？考慮到您給出的交付量為4500架，毛利率在15%左右，並且預計研發費用將較第四季度減少15%，銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）將適度增加，我很難得出非公認會計準則下略微正的淨利潤。研發成本是否有任何重新劃分？或者，我們忽略了其他重要的開發服務收入？

I think if you consider the combination of [more or less sales], or powertrain sales, or development revenue, and mid-teens gross margin, I think the guidance would probably lead you to somewhere along those lines close to something in the break-even range to slightly positive, should be close to break-even, and we were hoping to beat that.

我認為，如果綜合考慮銷售額、動力總成銷售額、開發收入和中等水平的毛利率，預計業績指引可能會接近盈虧平衡點或略微正值，應該接近盈虧平衡，我們希望能夠超過這個數字。

Okay, so there's not really any re-bucketing of R&D going on?

好的，那麼實際上並沒有對研發進行任何重新劃分嗎？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

We're not playing accounting games, and this is very much a function of Model S, not other things.

我們不是在玩會計遊戲，這很大程度上是 Model S 的功能，而不是其他東西。

Got it. Switching gears to CapEx for second. I think you guys have previously expected about $240 million of CapEx for full-year 2012, but ended up, I think, a little over $270 million. Is that something that you pulled forward from 2013, or is there something structurally that we should be looking out for here?

明白了。接下來談談資本支出。你們之前預計2012年全年的資本支出約為2.4億美元，但最終結果略高於2.7億美元。這是你們從2013年提早的預期嗎？還是有什麼結構性因素需要我們關注？

We had some amount of pull-ahead of completion of production tooling, and completion of some of our equipment in-house, which resulted in higher CapEx, as well as some of the infrastructure of the store and IT infrastructure. Overall, I think it was a bit of a pull-ahead, but it's not surprising in the end.

我們在生產工具的完成和部分內部設備的完成方面存在一定程度的提前，這導致了更高的資本支出，門市的部分基礎設施和IT基礎設施的建設也同樣如此。總的來說，我認為這確實有點提前，但最終結果並不令人意外。

Okay, great. Thanks very much.

好的，太好了。非常感謝。

Aaron Chew from Maxim Group.

來自 Maxim Group 的 Aaron Chew。

Good afternoon guys. Thanks for the question. Wondering if you could drill a little bit deeper into the slower pace of reservations in gen, and set the date following the price hike going into effect at year-end. Is it safe to say what you are saying is, it's down from December but still over the October/November levels? Maybe just given the big jump from 3Q to 4Q, if you could highlight if it's pacing above 3Q and below 4Q, or where you at what a little bit more in detail.

大家下午好。謝謝你的提問。請問您能否更深入探討整體預訂速度放緩的原因，並確定年底漲價生效後的日期。您說的是，預訂速度比12月有所下降，但仍高於10月/11月的水平，可以肯定地說嗎？考慮到從第三季到第四季的大幅成長，您能否具體說明預訂速度是高於第三季度，還是低於第四季度，或者您現在處於什麼階段？

Actually, I'm not sure I recall offhand what our third quarter numbers were. I think, Aaron (multiple speakers) The key point to bear in mind, as I mentioned earlier, is we have enough reservations right now to fill out the year. With maybe -- and just on sheer momentum, sell every car we make, even if we closed every store we've got. There were certainly cancellations in January that were a function of asking people to confirm. So we're trying to clean out basically anyone who wasn't serious about buying a car. But I don't think those are indicative of demand for the rest of the year. If you -- okay, sorry. George just confirmed, yes. It is definitely higher than Q3.

實際上，我不確定我是否還記得我們第三季的數據。我想，Aaron（多位講者）：正如我之前提到的，關鍵在於我們目前的預訂量足以填滿全年。或許——而且僅僅是憑藉這種勢頭，即使我們關閉了所有門市，我們生產的每輛車都能賣出去。一月份確實有一些取消預訂的情況，這是為了讓人們確認。所以我們正在努力清除那些不認真買車的人。但我認為這些並不能代表今年剩餘時間的需求。如果你——好的，抱歉。 George剛剛確認了，是的。它肯定比第三季更高。

Okay.

好的。

If you exclude the sort of reservations that were -- the cancellations that were just as a function of asking people to confirm their order or not, we have a lot of demand in North America. I would say well in excess of 0.5 of our 20,000 unit per year demand, or production target. So you may have heard me say this before, but where I think kind of demand breaks down between Asia, North America, and Europe is something like 10 to 15 in North America, probably 10 in Europe and maybe 10 to 15 in Asia. But it will take us some time to build up Asia, particularly China.

如果排除那些為了確認訂單而取消的預訂，我們在北美的需求量很大。我想說，這遠遠超過了我們每年2萬台需求（或生產目標）的0.5%。所以，你可能之前聽我說過，但我認為亞洲、北美和歐洲的需求分佈情況是：北美大約有10到15台，歐洲大概有10台，亞洲大概有10到15台。但我們需要一些時間來拓展亞洲市場，尤其是中國市場。

It doesn't really affect, I think, this year all that much. I am quite certain that we will flip it more than 20,000 cars this year. And that's not really a concern. Like I said, literally we could say goodbye to every store and every sales person and still meet that target. But we want to make sure that we have laid the groundwork for an improvement above 20,000 units a year in 2014. So as we're thinking about demand generation, it's really not about this year. It's about how do we exceed the 20,000 unit number next year.

我認為這對今年的影響並不大。我非常確定我們今年的銷量會超過2萬輛。這其實並不是什麼大問題。就像我說的，即使我們辭掉所有門市和所有銷售人員，也能達到這個目標。但我們希望確保在2014年為年銷量超過2萬輛奠定基礎。所以，當我們考慮需求創造時，真正重要的不是今年，而是明年如何超越2萬輛。

Okay, excellent, and then if I could shift real quick to the production side. Now that you have fully reached your target rate of production for the 20,000 pace, just wondering if you have been able to identify sort of how much flex you may have in that on a weekly basis, I mean, especially if you are thinking of 4500 in 1Q. Is up to 425 potentially, 450, or is there a way you can maybe quantify that, just so we can understand how you are able to meet that 20,000 sort of in the back half?

好的，非常好。接下來我可以快速轉到生產方面的問題。現在您已經完全達到了2萬輛的目標產量，我想知道您是否能夠確定每週產量的彈性，尤其是如果您計劃在第一季實現4500輛的目標。您認為產量有可能達到425輛，還是450輛？或者您能不能量化一下產量，以便我們了解您是如何在下半年實現2萬輛的目標的？

Yes. I think our production rate will be in excess of 20,000 unit a year annualized rate in the second half of the year. For this quarter and for probably most of next quarter, you have to decide what the relative focus is, and I think the important thing for us to focus on right now is production efficiency and improving gross margin rather than scaling up production. And right now we've got a pretty large number of temporary workers, and that they're essentially were hired to deal with manufacturing inefficiencies. And it is really important that we improve the manufacturing efficiency and can reduce the number of temps, essentially.

是的。我認為下半年我們的年產量將超過2萬台。對於本季以及下個季度的大部分時間，你必須確定相對的重點是什麼。我認為我們現在應該關注的是提高生產效率和毛利率，而不是擴大生產規模。目前我們有相當多的臨時工，他們基本上是被雇來應對生產效率低下的問題的。提高生產效率並減少臨時工數量對我們來說至關重要。

We should expect to see an increase in fulltime employees from beginning quarter to end of quarter. It's real important that we make some progress, significant progress, in reducing the size of the temporary labor force, and addressing the manufacturing inefficiencies. In any company, you've got to focus on what is important at any one time, and production efficiency is the thing to. If we wanted to, we could raise production right now to 500 units a week. That's probably what we could do right now. It would do so at the expense of efficiency, and we have a lot of overtime and that kind of thing. Right now it's really just focus on efficiency, at the risk of being repetitive, sorry.

我們預計從本季初到本季末全職員工數量會增加。在減少臨時工規模和解決製造效率低下的問題上，取得一些進展，特別是重大進展，這非常重要。在任何公司，你都必須專注於當下最重要的事情，而生產效率是關鍵。如果我們願意，現在就可以將產量提高到每週500台。這或許就是我們現在可以做到的。但這會以犧牲效率為代價，我們有很多加班之類的事情。現在我們真正關注的只是效率，抱歉，可能會重複。

All right, very helpful. Thanks so much for the question.

好的，非常有幫助。非常感謝你的提問。

Amir Rozwadowski from Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的阿米爾·羅茲瓦多夫斯基。

Just following up on that question of focus Elon. Is really sort of optimizing your workforce the primary barrier to getting to that 25% gross margin target, given that you are relatively a stone's throw away from sort of your optimal production rate?

埃隆，我想繼續關註一下重點問題。考慮到你們距離最佳生產力只有一步之遙，優化勞動力真的是實現 25% 毛利率目標的主要障礙嗎？

There are a number of things. I mean, actually generally speaking, but the car business is a pretty cost-efficient business. I mean, it may not be great at a lot of things, sort of breakthrough technology and that kind of thing, but it's pretty good at cost optimization. So in order for us to be competitive, it takes a lot of work on all fronts. Certainly reducing the labor hours and the amount of overtime. I mean, in December, even though we were cash flow positive, it sort of comfortable on a per car basis when all things are considered. The amount of overtime that was required to achieve the 400 cars per week was pretty extreme. That has improved dramatically just coming into January and then February.

有很多因素。我的意思是，總的來說，汽車產業是一個成本效率相當高的產業。我的意思是，它可能在許多方面並不出色，例如突破性技術之類的，但它在成本優化方面相當出色。所以，為了保持競爭力，我們需要在各方面都投入大量精力。當然，也要減少工時和加班時間。我的意思是，在12月份，儘管我們的現金流為正，但考慮到所有因素，以每輛車計算，這還算可以接受。為了達到每週400輛汽車的生產目標，我們需要大量的加班，這相當極端。但到了1月和2月，情況有了顯著改善。

We've gone from, I think it was an average of over 60 hours a week, almost 70 hours a week in December. Yes, exactly. It was somewhere between 50% and 70% above 40 hours. In other words, it was like an average 68-hour week that people worked in December, which is also a tough thing for people to sustain, it's a sort of burnout level. But it also drives the cost to a pretty extreme level, because above 60 hours a week, you are actually in double-time. Above 40 hours a week, you're in overtime. So now we have gone to, down to the point where we're at maybe a 50-hour week. So from something like, I said, something like almost a 70-hour week average in December to about a 50-hour week now, and then driving that to kind of the mid-40s in March. In addition to reducing the total number of people needed to get the car.

我們已經從平均每週工作時間超過60小時，到12月幾乎達到70小時。沒錯，就是40小時以上，佔比在50%到70%之間。換句話說，12月份人們平均每週工作68小時，這對人們來說也很難維持，幾乎到了精疲力竭的程度。但這也將成本推高到相當高的水平，因為每週超過60小時，實際上是雙倍工時。每週超過40小時，就是加班了。所以現在我們每週的工作時間已經降到50小時左右了。也就是說，從12月平均每週接近70小時，到現在大約是50小時，到3月又降到了45小時左右。此外，也減少了購車所需的總人數。

So the labor hours per car are dropping dramatically. That maybe the single biggest factor, but close behind it are things like logistics and supply parts. Another thing that we had to do that was really inefficient in fourth quarter was we had to fly a lot of stuff, and when you fly something, it can cost as much as 10 times what it cost to ship it by sea or rail or truck. [particularly] if it's heavy. So we have to do some pretty dumb things like fly tires from the Czech Republic. I kid you not. That was one of the -- I wanted to punch myself in the face for that one. At the risk of fooling around, I will just give you a little anecdote. They're are 100 things like this.

所以每輛車的工時大幅下降。這或許是最大的因素，但緊隨其後的是物流和零件供應等環節。第四季我們不得不做的另一件效率很低的事情是，很多東西都需要空運，而空運的成本可能是海運、鐵路或公路運輸的10倍，[尤其是]如果東西很重的話。所以我們不得不做一些相當愚蠢的事情，例如從捷克共和國空運輪胎。我不騙你。那是一件——我當時真想給自己一拳。冒著開玩笑的風險，我告訴你一個小故事。像這樣的事情有100件。

As it turns out, we have a supplier for the 21-inch tires that is in the Czech Republic, and it was taking -- we have 30-day payment terms with them. And when they were shipping the tires, it actually took longer than 30 days to get to us. So the tires would get to us, and it would be past due. So that happened a number of months, and then they put a hold on the shipments because we hadn't paid on time, even though we weren't getting the tires before we were getting the bill. They put the hold on that, and anyway. So that was just a big [catastrophe] that we had to fly a bunch of tires from the Czech Republic just to keep production going. That'll give you one sort of extreme example of how logistics can actually go bonkers. That's also dropped dramatically in the first quarter.

事實證明，我們在捷克共和國有一家21吋輪胎的供應商，他們規定了30天的付款期限。但他們在發貨時，實際上花了超過30天的時間才到我們手中。所以輪胎到了我們手中，就已經逾期了。這種情況持續了好幾個月，然後他們就暫停發貨，因為我們沒有按時付款，即使我們在收到賬單之前沒有收到輪胎。他們就這樣暫停了發貨，就這樣。這真是一場大災難，我們不得不從捷克共和國空運一批輪胎來維持生產。這是一個極端的例子，說明物流實際上可以變得多麼瘋狂。第一季的物流也急遽下降。

And then in terms of supplied parts, as I mentioned, there's a huge number of supplier cost reductions taking place, because just as we have inefficiencies, so do our suppliers. One of the biggest challenges we actually had, and I don't mean to unload on you guys who are on the call. But the industry estimates for the number of cars that we make were quite low. So for example, there's an organization called HIS, which does industry estimates on production volumes. They had us down at 1500 units a year. For a number of our suppliers, when -- they didn't look at our forecast, they looked at the HIS forecast, and they didn't believe our forecast.

然後就供應零件而言，正如我所提到的，我們正在大幅削減供應商的成本，因為正如我們效率低下一樣，我們的供應商也同樣如此。我們面臨的最大挑戰之一，我並非有意在座各位發洩不滿。但業界對我們生產的汽車數量的預估相當低。例如，有一家名為HIS的機構，負責對產量進行產業估算。他們估計我們的年產量為1500輛。對於我們的一些供應商來說，他們沒有看我們的預測，而是看了HIS的預測，並且不相信我們的預測。

So they tooled up for some puny number of parts, for very low production volume. And then were caught flat-footed when we said, no we actually did mean the order that we sent you. We're making 20,000 units a year, not 1500 units a year. We've had a number of such conversations where our suppliers finally realized that we weren't kidding about that and took the steps necessary to supply us with the parts. And I think we're starting to get beyond silly things like that and get into a steady cadence of production, and suppliers are starting to take our volumes seriously and to offer us prices that are actually competitive in the market. Deepak, is there anything want to add to that?

所以他們只準備了少量零件，產量也非常低。然後，當我們說「不，我們指的是我們發給你的訂單」時，他們措手不及。我們每年生產2萬台，而不是1500台。我們進行了多次這樣的溝通，最終我們的供應商意識到我們不是開玩笑，並採取了必要的措施來供應零件給我們。我認為我們已經開始不再胡思亂想，開始進入穩定的生產節奏，供應商也開始認真對待我們的產量，並給我們一個具有市場競爭力的價格。 Deepak，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think those are all very good points, plus our engineering teams are working closely on identifying efficiencies and material costs, both internally and with our suppliers. So that is a huge focus, which is bringing a lot costs down. Very positive momentum on that.

我認為這些都是非常好的觀點。此外，我們的工程團隊正在內部以及與供應商密切合作，以確定效率和材料成本。因此，這是一個重要的關注點，有助於大幅降低成本。目前這方面的勢頭非常積極。

Sorry. (multiple speakers) One thing I should add is for a number of our supplies, we actually have price breaks that occur at certain volume levels and at certain calendar points, in particular, for example, our deal with Panasonic. That's a huge factor. As we pass certain calendar points and certain production volumes, the cost of the sales in our [value] pack drops, and that has been quite helpful.

抱歉。 （多位發言者）我想補充一點，對於我們的一些產品，我們實際上會在特定產量水平和特定時間點進行降價，例如我們與松下的合作。這是一個非常重要的因素。當我們超過特定時間點和特定產量時，我們[超值]套裝的銷售成本就會下降，這非常有幫助。

I guess, given where you are in terms of your production now, and some of the issues seem to be in the rear-view mirror, I mean, what is your sort of comfortable in sort of meeting or even exceeding that 25% target?

我想，考慮到您現在的生產狀況，而且一些問題似乎已經成為過去，我的意思是，您對達到甚至超過 25% 的目標感覺如何？

I'm highly confident that we will be above 25% gross margin, without considering zero emission credits, by the end of this year.

我非常有信心，到今年年底，不考慮零排放信用額，我們的毛利率將超過 25%。

Great. Thank you very much for the incremental color.

太棒了！非常感謝你提供的增量顏色。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

John Lovallo from Merrill Lynch.

美林證券的 John Lovallo。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the call. First question, Elon, would be for you. Despite all the noise in the press and all the back-and-forth. I mean, do see kind of the potential necessary additional planning for a driver of an electric vehicle? I mean, do you see that as a headwind? Are you hearing that from anybody?

嘿，夥計們。感謝接聽電話。伊隆，第一個問題是問你的。儘管媒體上有很多喧囂，而且雙方都來來回回，但你認為電動車駕駛員可能需要做額外的規劃嗎？你認為這會是個阻力嗎？有人這麼說嗎？

I think for a long-distance trip right now, depending upon where you are in the country, a little bit of extra planning is needed. I think if you're in California or Nevada, we've got a good density of Superchargers for long-distance driving, so you don't really have to worry about it. The ideal density of Superchargers is maybe around roughly every 120 to 150 miles. Where it is right now on East Coast from DC to Boston, it's about every 200 miles, because we only have two. But we have a bunch more Superchargers that are going into the East Coast and across the country, into Texas, the Seattle area, Chicago, and really want to get to the point where you don't even have to think about it, and I think we're very close to the point. So at some distant point in the future.

我認為，就目前的長途旅行而言，根據你在美國各地的具體位置，需要進行一些額外的規劃。如果你在加州或內華達州，那裡的超級充電樁密度很高，非常適合長途駕駛，所以你不必為此擔心。理想的超級充電樁密度大概是每120到150英里（約200到240公里）就有一個。目前在東海岸，從華盛頓特區到波士頓，大約每200英里（約322公里）就有一個，因為我們只有兩個。但我們在東海岸和全國各地，例如德克薩斯州、西雅圖地區、芝加哥，還有更多超級充電樁正在建設中。我們真心希望達到一個你甚至不用考慮充電樁的地步，我認為我們已經非常接近這個目標了。所以，在未來的某個遙遠的時期。

We're very rapidly deploying the network of Superchargers, and we're hooking that into the software in the cars, the navigation system will automatically route you to a Supercharger. You plug in wherever you want to go, and it will just route you through the Supercharger network to get where you to go. So you don't even have to think about it. All that is going to happen like in the next several months, it's not far away. I think when people actually use the Supercharger system, which is free, by the way. That seems to be lost in this whole debate. With what card do you have free long distance? It's pretty fricking great, I think. And we're continuing to improve the rate at which the Supercharger can put energy into the car.

我們正在快速部署超級充電樁網絡，並將其與車載軟體連接，導航系統會自動引導您前往超級充電樁。無論您想去哪裡，只要插上電源，導航系統就會引導您透過超級充電樁網路到達目的地。所以您甚至不需要思考。這一切都將在未來幾個月內實現，並不遙遠。我認為，當人們真正使用超級充電樁系統時，順便說一句，它是免費的。但這似乎在整個爭論中都被忽略了。用什麼卡可以免費撥打長途電話？我認為這真是太棒了。我們正在繼續提高超級充電樁為汽車充電的速度。

We have deployed some of the solar panels over the Superchargers. We're going to start deploying a lot more, which cuts our cost of electricity down. And it's pretty awesome, I think. And then there is -- we've got a fairly, I think, meaningful announcement about a step change in super-charging technology coming later this year. That's actually originally what we were going to talk -- that's sort of first thing what we wanted to do the article in the New York Times about. I don't know, who knows, maybe we will ultimately do it with? But I think that's going to be -- people are going to be pretty interested in that announcement when it comes out. And this whole thing of the does the car work in the cold, and yes, it works really well, actually. We're going to make it work even better over time. It does lose 10% of its range in winter if it's very cold, but so do gasoline cars. People kind of forget about that too.

我們已經在超級充電樁上安裝了部分太陽能板。我們計劃開始安裝更多，這將降低我們的電力成本。我認為這非常棒。此外，我們將在今年稍後發布一項意義重大的公告，關於超級充電技術的重大改進。這其實就是我們最初想要討論的內容——也是我們想在《紐約時報》上發表文章的第一件事。我不知道，誰知道呢，也許我們最後會這麼做？但我認為，當這項公告發佈時，人們會非常感興趣。至於汽車在寒冷天氣下能否正常工作，是的，它實際上運行得很好。我們會隨著時間的推移讓它運作得更好。如果冬天天氣非常寒冷，它的續航里程會損失10%，但汽油車也是如此。人們似乎也忘記了這一點。

Okay. That is very helpful. And then Deepak, the Q4 step-up in developmental services revenue, was that more of a kind of true-up from the third quarter where possibly some of that Daimler got pushed back?

好的。這很有幫助。那麼，Deepak，第四季度開發服務收入的成長，是否更多地是第三季的一種彌補，因為戴姆勒的部分業務可能被推遲了？

Partially yes. That's right.

部分是的。沒錯。

Okay. Thanks very much, guys.

好的。非常感謝大家。

Dan Galves from Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的丹‧加爾維斯。

You guys have probably by this point asked most of your current US backlog to configure their vehicle, or to confirm. Just wanted to know what you have learned about likely ordering patterns in terms of battery size, options, et cetera. And do you have any sense of where average transaction prices may shake out this year?

到目前為止，你們可能已經要求目前美國大部分積壓訂單的客戶配置他們的車輛或進行確認。我只是想了解一下，你們對電池尺寸、選配等方面的訂購模式有何了解。你們對今年平均交易價格的走勢有何預測？

Well, it's definitely more people are ordering the larger battery pack than we thought. It seems to be that, I can say less than 10% of people are ordering the 40-kilowatt hour pack. That's an interesting data point. Not saying that couldn't change in the future, but that's what we're seeing right now. So maybe 10% or less. A majority of people are ordering the big battery pack, actually, which is -- again, I wouldn't count on that in the long-term, but the majority of people are actually -- more than 30% are ordering the 85-kilowatt hour pack, which is a positive surprise, and hopefully that continues. I think that's the best experience that somebody could have with the car. Hopefully that keeps going into the future.

嗯，訂購更大容量電池組的人肯定比我們想像的要多。我估計訂購40千瓦時電池組的人不到10%。這是一個很有意思的數據。我不是說未來不會改變，但我們現在看到的就是這個比例。所以大概在10%甚至更低。實際上，大多數人都在訂購大容量電池組，也就是說——再說一次，我不會指望這種情況會持續很久，但實際上大多數人——超過30%的人訂購了85千瓦時的電池組，這是一個驚喜，希望這種情況能持續下去。我認為這是人們在用車時能獲得的最佳體驗。希望未來這種情況能一直持續下去。

Any revenue outlook for this year that you could provide for us? In terms of average transaction prices?

您能提供一下今年的收入前景嗎？就平均交易價格而言？

I guess our inclination is to take it one quarter at a time, but I it's looking -- I don't think people will be disappointed by the revenue numbers this year. I think people will react positively to the revenue number that occurs in this year. And then obviously we want to make sure that we have laid the groundwork this year for a meaningful increase in 2014 as well.

我想我們傾向於一個季度一個季度地推進，但我認為——我認為大家不會對今年的收入數字感到失望。我認為大家會對今年的收入數字做出正面的反應。當然，我們希望確保今年已經為2014年的顯著成長奠定基礎。

Okay, great, and one other one. How much in terms of deferral's are you experiencing as you go through your reservation book? And just wondering, how many people are really looking for a US leasing option, and if you could provide us any update on the likelihood of a US lease this year, that would be great. Thanks.

好的，太好了，還有一個問題。您在查看預訂記錄時，遇到了多少延期？我想知道，有多少人真的在尋找美國租賃的選擇？如果您能提供一些關於今年美國租賃可能性的最新信息，那就太好了。謝謝。

Yes. Well, we do see some deferral's taking place, because we have a new color coming out, which is a really great color. I have to admit it, it's a really great color. We spent a lot of time on that red, but [then] I'm suggesting anyone delay their order, but it is an awesome red. So we've got a lot of interest in that. They're saying people that don't want the air springs, even I think that's actually something people should really -- it's worth getting, but some people don't want to get it. And there's a little bit of deferral on that front, but we are not really seeing deferral -- is mostly deferral because certain options aren't available right now, as opposed to other reasons, really. And then, sorry, what was the second question?

是的。嗯，我們確實看到一些客戶推遲了訂單，因為我們即將推出一款新顏色，那是一款非常棒的顏色。我得承認，這顏色真的很棒。我們花了很多時間在這款紅色上，但我建議大家延後下單，畢竟這款紅色真的很棒。所以我們對它很有興趣。他們說有些人不想要空氣彈簧，即使我覺得這東西確實值得入手——值得入手，但有些人就是不想入手。這方面確實有一些客戶推遲了訂單，但我們並沒有真正看到這種情況——主要是因為某些選項目前不可用，而不是其他原因。然後，抱歉，第二個問題是什麼？

Leasing, yes. All of the sales and all the things I mentioned thus far are with zero North American leasing. We don't even offer leasing in North America. That is something that we do want to offer it, maybe second half of the year. So we want to make sure that the terms of the lease, like the interest rate and all that are compelling. Even if we did zero leasing in North America, we could still sell all of our production this year. Leasing is entirely optional for us at this point. And we only want to come out with a leasing product that is compelling. We don't want to come out with kind of a lame leasing product. And we are talking with some of the major financial institutions a little about doing leasing, and those talks are progressing in a good direction.

是的，是租賃。我目前提到的所有銷售以及所有業務都與北美租賃業務無關。我們甚至沒有在北美提供租賃服務。我們確實希望在下半年推出這項服務。因此，我們希望確保租賃條款，例如利率等，都具有吸引力。即使我們在北美沒有租賃業務，我們今年仍然可以銷售所有產品。目前，租賃對我們來說完全是可選的。我們只想推出一款具有吸引力的產品，而不是那種蹩腳的租賃產品。我們正在與一些大型金融機構就租賃業務進行一些洽談，目前談判進展順利。

But in order for us to get the best rates for our customers, I mean, we're not really interested in making a bunch of incremental money from leasing, but we want to make sure we get a good deal for customers. It's important for those big financial institutions to feel really comfortable with Tesla. One of the reasons it can be helpful for us to be powerful this quarter and subsequent quarters is to give greater confidence to the large banks in giving us, our for customers, a good leasing interest rate. I think that's usually happening to the big financial companies. And I do see long-term, not so much this year. I think this year leasing's going to comprise a very small percentage of our volume, but I do think next year leasing will be a big factor. And within Europe, it will be at least a moderate factor this year. We already have a significant leasing deal signed with Aplong, which is one of the major European leasing companies.

但為了給客戶最優惠的價格，我的意思是，我們實際上並不真的想從租賃中賺取大量的增量利潤，而是想確保為客戶提供優惠的優惠。讓那些大型金融機構對特斯拉感到真正放心非常重要。我們在本季和接下來幾季保持強勁成長的原因之一是，這能增強大型銀行的信心，讓他們更有信心為客戶提供優惠的租賃利率。我認為大型金融公司通常會這樣做。但我認為，從長遠來看，今年的情況不會如此。我認為今年租賃業務在我們的業務量中所佔比例很小，但我認為明年租賃業務將成為一個重要因素。在歐洲，租賃業務今年至少會是一個中等規模的因素。我們已經與歐洲主要租賃公司之一Aplong簽署了一項重要的租賃協議。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Elaine Kwei from Jefferies.

來自 Jefferies 的 Elaine Kwei。

Hi everyone. Congrats on hitting some pretty big milestones this quarter. And actually just following up on the demand generation for 2014, I was curious, what percentages of the new reservations you are seeing coming from stores, and are you seeing a pretty good correlation there with reservation growth and the store openings? I know you probably don't want to give away any tricks up your sleeve, but in terms of just general ideas for the next steps in marketing, do you pursue some traditional automotive channels, or are you still primarily going to rely on the stores and perhaps word-of-mouth or other alternative methods?

大家好。恭喜您本季取得了一些重要的里程碑。實際上，關於2014年的需求成長，我很好奇，您看到的新預訂量中有多少比例來自門市？您是否認為預訂量的成長和門市開幕之間有良好的相關性？我知道您可能不想透露任何秘訣，但就行銷的下一步計劃而言，您會採用一些傳統的汽車管道，還是仍然主要依靠門市、口碑或其他替代方法？

There's nothing better at the end of the day than word-of-mouth, which has really been fantastic. In fact, we see a lot of demand occurring where we have delivered the most cars, because that's where the most word-of-mouth occurs, which I think is a really good predictor for the future. As for the stores themselves, George?

說到底，沒有什麼比口碑更好了，這真的太棒了。事實上，我們看到很多需求出現在我們交付汽車最多的地方，因為那裡的口碑最好，我認為這對未來發展非常有預測作用。至於門市本身，喬治？

Yes. What we're seeing in the stores is that some people come in, they see the car, and they want to put a reservation down today. My gosh, how do I get one as soon as possible? Other people that want to come back, they want to ask some questions, and they keep coming back, and the beauty of the stores is they are located in locations where people frequent on a regular basis. So they don't have to go out of their way to stop back and asked future questions. That's working really, really well. I think when we start looking at 2014 and 2015, I think what we need to do is step back and understand that in our segment, the Model S segment of automobile sales worldwide, less than 30% of them are done in the United States.

是的。我們在門市看到的情況是，有些人進來，看到車，就想今天就預訂。我的天哪，我怎麼能盡快訂到車呢？還有些人想回來，想問一些問題，然後就一直回來。門市的魅力就在於它們都位於人們經常光顧的地方。這樣他們就不用特意跑回來再問問題了。這種做法非常有效。我認為，當我們回顧2014年和2015年時，我們需要回顧一下，明白在我們這個細分市場，也就是全球汽車銷售的Model S細分市場中，只有不到30%是在美國銷售的。

There's this massive opportunity for us as we go international where we haven't even tapped it with one new design story yet. None of the stores we have anywhere in the world are like the stores we have in North America in a high-traffic shopping center. We will start doing those this year, so we can start having the same results and getting in front of people elsewhere outside the United States, like we are doing here. And that is one of the things we're going to do in China. We are opening up in this really, really great shopping center in Beijing in the spring that is a high-traffic location.

在我們走向國際市場的過程中，我們面臨著巨大的機遇，而我們甚至還沒有用任何新的設計理念去挖掘它。我們在世界各地的門市都不像我們在北美那些人流量很大的購物中心裡的門市。我們今年將開始這樣做，這樣我們就能取得同樣的成果，並像我們在中國所做的那樣，在美國以外的其他地方吸引顧客。這也是我們在中國要做的事情之一。我們將於春季在北京一個非常棒的購物中心開業，那裡人流量很大。

We've got one scheduled for Hong Kong, we've got one scheduled that we're looking at in a couple of other countries in Europe. And when people come in and they interact with us when there not thinking about a car, it's like the best experience you could have with them, and then when it comes time to buy a car, they think, that's where I want to buy it and that's who I want to buy from. As a result, the longer a store is open and the more cars that are on the road around those stores, the more effective the store has become. The longer a store is open, the better.

我們已經在香港安排了一家門市，我們也正在考慮在歐洲其他幾個國家開設一家。當人們走進門市，在不考慮買車的情況下與我們互動時，這就像是一種最棒的體驗。等到他們真正需要買車的時候，他們就會想，這就是我想在哪裡買，這就是我想從誰那裡買。因此，門市營業時間越長，周圍道路上行駛的車輛越多，門市的效率就越高。門市營業時間越長，效果越好。

That's great color. Would you be able to give us an update on Model X reservations at this time, or maybe perhaps some rough timing around when you might start to step up the marketing push on that one?

顏色真好看。您能透露一下目前 Model X 預訂情況的最新情況嗎？或是大概什麼時候會開始加大市場推廣力道？

Sure. Because we haven't pushed the Model S at all, in fact we literally only have one demonstration unit even. So I wouldn't want people to necessarily judge us against the progress of Model X. Rather than comment on it and have people infer something about that number, I will just say I am pretty happy with how those reservations are going with basically zero effort. Really, it is a doughnut. And I actually think that we're likely to see buying interest for Model X that is at least 70%, or thereabouts, that of the model S. And in certain countries, I think it will probably exceed the model S in demand.

當然。因為我們根本沒有推廣過 Model S，實際上我們甚至只有一輛示範車。所以我不希望人們非要根據 Model X 的進展來評斷我們。與其評論 Model X 的進展，讓大家對這個數字做出推斷，我只想說，我對這些預訂幾乎不費吹灰之力就能實現的進展感到非常滿意。真的，簡直就像甜甜圈一樣。而我認為，Model X 的購買興趣至少會達到 Model S 的 70% 左右。在某些國家，我認為它的需求可能會超過 Model S。

Great. Thanks so much guys, and congrats again.

太棒了！非常感謝大家，再次恭喜你。

Thanks. We have time for one more question. One more caller, please.

謝謝。我們還有時間再回答一個問題。請再請一位來電者。

Andrea James from Dougherty & Company.

來自 Dougherty & Company 的 Andrea James。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. You are suggesting positive incoming Q1, and just, I guess, what still needs to happen to get there, if anything? And then would anything throw that off for the rest of the year, as well?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。您預測第一季業績將呈現正面勢頭，那麼，為了實現這一目標，還需要做些什麼呢？接下來，今年剩餘時間的業績是否也會受到影響？

Sure, good question. I mean, unless there is some force majeure event, like a giant earthquake or something, or a big flood or typhoon, we feel really confident. In fact, it's safe to say that we will be comfortable in the absence of a force majeure event this quarter. It's my aspiration, and I think it's the aspiration of everyone at Tesla, to be profitable in subsequent quarters as well. I'm cautiously optimistic about that, but I don't want to commit to it until I know more. We're committing to Q1, and I think cautiously optimistic about Q2, is a way to think about it.

當然，問得好。我的意思是，除非發生不可抗力事件，例如大地震、洪水或颱風，否則我們非常有信心。事實上，可以肯定地說，如果本季沒有不可抗力事件，我們就會感到安心。我的願望，我想也是特斯拉所有人的願望，就是在接下來的幾季實現獲利。我對此持謹慎樂觀的態度，但在了解更多之前，我不會做出承諾。我們承諾第一季獲利，我認為對第二季也持謹慎樂觀的態度，這是一種思考方式。

What sort of information would sort of make you more constructive on Q2? What do you hope to learn as Q1 goes on?

什麼樣的資訊會讓你對第二季的進展更有建設性？隨著第一季的進展，你希望了解什麼？

Well, maybe I am hedging too much. I just don't want to be overconfident, really. I mean, I do think we will be profitable in Q2, and subsequent quarters too. But I guess rather than sort of an absolute commitment, I would say I'm just really highly confidence of that being the case.

嗯，也許我有點過度套利了。我只是不想太過自信，真的。我的意思是，我確實認為我們第二季以及接下來的幾季都會獲利。但我猜，與其說是絕對的承諾，不如說我對此非常有信心。

No, that make sense. Thank you so much.

不，你說得對。非常感謝。

You are welcome.

不客氣。

Okay, thank you everyone for calling. Want to thank you all for joining us this afternoon. We look forward to seeing you in the coming weeks, either on a factory tour or on our travels to see you. Goodbye.

好的，謝謝大家的來電。感謝大家今天下午加入我們。我們期待在接下來的幾週與您見面，無論是參觀工廠，還是外出拜訪。再見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for participating in today's program. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們，先生們，感謝大家參加今天的節目。節目到此結束。請大家斷開連線。