特斯拉 (TSLA) 2012 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Tesla Motors fourth quarter 2012 financial results Q&A call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到特斯拉汽車公司 2012 年第四季度財務業績問答電話。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時將按照說明進行。提醒一下，正在錄製此電話會議。

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Jeff Evanson. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人 Jeff Evanson 先生。請繼續。

Think you Patrick, and good afternoon everyone.

想想你帕特里克，大家下午好。

Welcome to Tesla Motors' fourth quarter financial results question-and-answer conference call. I am joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman, CEO, and Chief Product Architect and Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer.

歡迎來到特斯拉汽車公司第四季度財務業績問答電話會議。今天，特斯拉董事長、首席執行官兼首席產品架構師 Elon Musk 和特斯拉首席財務官 Deepak Ahuja 加入了我的行列。

We announced our financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2012 shortly after the close of the market today. The shareholder letter, financial results, and webcast of this Q&A session are all available at our Investor Relations website at ir.teslamotors.com. Today's call is for your questions, and we would like to keep the call to 45 minutes today. We will conduct the Q&A session live.

今天收市後不久，我們公佈了 2012 年第四季度和全年的財務業績。本次問答環節的股東信函、財務業績和網絡直播均可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.teslamotors.com 上查閱。今天的電話是針對您的問題，我們希望將電話保持在今天的 45 分鐘。我們將現場進行問答環節。

(Caller Instructions)

（來電說明）

I would like you to try to limit your questions to one question plus one follow-up question. During the course of this call, we may discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are predictions based on management's current expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially, due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent 10-Q filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views as of today, and should not be relied upon after today. We also disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

我希望您嘗試將您的問題限制在一個問題加上一個後續問題。在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理層當前預期的預測。由於存在許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。此類前瞻性陳述代表我們今天的觀點，不應在今天之後依賴。我們也不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

And now Patrick, could we please have the first question?

現在帕特里克，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Ben Kallo from Baird.

來自貝爾德的本·卡洛。

Thanks for taking my question. I think one of the things that investors will be focused on is the amount of churn. Could you guys just talk about where you are seeing that churn, and then how much time you think it takes for it to level off?

感謝您提出我的問題。我認為投資者將關注的一件事是客戶流失的數量。你們能談談你在哪裡看到這種流失，然後你認為它需要多長時間才能穩定下來？

Yes. I mean, I think you may be referring to -- I think there have been some articles about Tesla wait time is reduced to a month? Is that maybe what you are referring to?

是的。我的意思是，我想你可能指的是——我認為有一些文章關於特斯拉的等待時間減少到一個月？這可能是你所指的嗎？

Yes, we can tie that in there too, because I have heard this argument out there, that you call the store, they say that I can get my car in a month, or 45 days. So maybe you can tie that into also, and having the record level of reservations, but then having kind of some people opt out of or take their money back, their deposit back.

是的，我們也可以把它綁在那裡，因為我聽到了這種說法，你打電話給商店，他們說我可以在一個月內或 45 天內拿到我的車。因此，也許您也可以將其與創紀錄的預訂水平聯繫起來，然後讓一些人選擇退出或收回他們的錢，收回他們的押金。

Yes, absolutely. I think there some articles out there that don't really accurately describe the situation. The average wait time now for a car is about five months. However, there are some configurations which are available in more like maybe six to eight weeks, which are the very high-end reservations. But it should be pointed out, like, that we are also talking about an average wait time that is on the order of five months. And in fact, if we were to close all of our stores right now, worldwide, and not have any product specialists or salespeople, we would still sell out through the year. So that's maybe an important thing that people don't quite appreciate.

是的，一點沒錯。我認為有些文章並不能真正準確地描述這種情況。現在汽車的平均等待時間約為五個月。但是，有些配置可能會在六到八週內可用，這是非常高端的預訂。但應該指出的是，我們也在談論平均等待時間，大約為五個月。事實上，如果我們現在關閉全球所有門店，並且沒有任何產品專家或銷售人員，我們全年仍會售罄。所以這可能是人們不太欣賞的重要事情。

I guess, If you could just elaborate on how you're seeing demand pick up in other places outside North America, and what we should expect as the year progresses there. Then I will jump back in queue.

我想，如果你能詳細說明一下你看到北美以外其他地方的需求如何回升，以及隨著時間的推移我們應該期待什麼。然後我會跳回隊列。

Yes, absolutely. Right now, we have really done almost no Model S sales in Asia, and we have done very limited amounts in Europe. In fact, we only have two cars in all of Europe. That's going to change dramatically in the next few months, and we're going to start marketing heavily in Europe, and then start doing the same in Asia. We feel very confident of achieving a demand level in excess of 20,000 units a year. And, I mean, I think we will see quite a bit larger than that number as we expand to Asia and Europe and actually start marketing there. George Blakenship, here with me, George, do you want to add anything to that?

是的，一點沒錯。目前，我們在亞洲幾乎沒有完成 Model S 的銷售，在歐洲的銷售量也非常有限。事實上，我們在整個歐洲只有兩輛車。在接下來的幾個月裡，情況將發生巨大變化，我們將開始在歐洲大力營銷，然後在亞洲開始做同樣的事情。我們對實現每年超過 20,000 台的需求水平充滿信心。而且，我的意思是，我認為隨著我們擴展到亞洲和歐洲並真正開始在那裡進行營銷，我們會看到比這個數字大得多的數字。 George Blakenship，和我在一起，George，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes. We had a press event preview in Europe at the end of October, and that it was received very, very well. At this point, the interesting thing about Europe is that we are getting a nice response in reservations, and we don't even have any display cars there yet. We will over the next couple of months. As Elon said, we will be actually sending display cars over. But right now we are still transitioning out of Roadster and into Model S in the stores without even display cars and still having a nice pickup in European reservations. As far as Asia goes, it's announced, we've announced previously that we're opening in China our first store later in the spring, and we expect a real positive results there. And we're just now starting to show Model S in Asia in Hong Kong and Japan, with stores planned for there in the latter part of this year. We really haven't started actually displaying our car to customers hardly at all anywhere outside of North America, yet about 25% of our reservations are outside North America. So, and in North America, you probably saw in Q4, in our stores in North America, we had 1.6 million people go through the stores just in Q4. So that's still -- it is wintertime so don't have as much traffic as you do at Christmas, but we expect to have a really nice increase in traffic in our North America store this year. The stores are working.

是的。 10 月底，我們在歐洲進行了新聞發布會預覽，收到了非常非常好的反饋。在這一點上，關於歐洲的有趣之處在於，我們在預訂方面得到了很好的回應，我們甚至還沒有任何展示車。我們將在接下來的幾個月裡。正如埃隆所說，我們實際上將發送展示車。但現在我們仍在從 Roadster 過渡到商店中的 Model S，甚至沒有展示汽車，並且在歐洲預訂中仍然有不錯的皮卡。就亞洲而言，它已經宣布，我們之前已經宣布我們將在春季晚些時候在中國開設我們的第一家門店，我們期待在那裡取得真正的積極成果。我們剛剛開始在亞洲的香港和日本展示 Model S，併計劃在今年下半年在那裡開設門店。在北美以外的任何地方，我們真的還沒有開始真正向客戶展示我們的汽車，但我們大約 25% 的預訂是在北美以外的地方。所以，在北美，你可能在第四季度看到，在我們在北美的商店中，僅在第四季度就有 160 萬人光顧這些商店。所以那仍然是——現在是冬天，所以沒有聖誕節時那麼多的客流量，但我們預計今年我們北美商店的客流量會有一個非常好的增長。商店正在工作。

Thanks guys. Congrats on the progress throughout 2012.

多謝你們。祝賀整個 2012 年取得的進展。

Ben Schuman from Pacific Crest Securities.

來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Ben Schuman。

Hi guys, thanks. Can you give us any idea of what the regulatory credit revenue was in Q4?

大家好，謝謝。您能否告訴我們第四季度的監管信貸收入是多少？

Deepak, do want to comment on that?

迪帕克，你想對此發表評論嗎？

No, I think for us, the way we look at regulatory credit is that it's great to get that, it's a positive stream of revenue, but it's unpredictable, and as we look forward, we are much more focused on getting to profitability and achieving our targets without the benefit of the regulatory credits.

不，我認為對我們來說，我們看待監管信貸的方式是獲得這一點很好，這是一個積極的收入流，但它是不可預測的，而且隨著我們的展望，我們更加專注於實現盈利和實現我們的目標沒有得到監管信用的好處。

Yes, exactly. And in fact, maybe to just clarify it further. As people may recall, there were three firm things that I promised we would do. That we would start production last year, earlier than July, and we started in June; that we will get to 20,000 units a year; and that -- I'm sorry, that we would deliver 20,000 units in 2013; and that by the end of 2013 we would exceed 25% gross margin. And I want to be clear that, that 25% does not include regulatory credits.

對，就是這樣。事實上，也許只是為了進一步澄清。人們可能還記得，我曾承諾我們會做三件堅定的事情。我們將在去年 7 月之前開始生產，我們從 6 月開始；我們將達到每年 20,000 個單位；還有——對不起，我們將在 2013 年交付 20,000 台；到 2013 年底，我們的毛利率將超過 25%。我想明確一點，這 25% 不包括監管信用。

Okay, great. And then can you maybe give us an update on the quality control situation? Just in terms of what percentage of the cars are still getting some sort of post-production touch-up work?

好，太棒了。然後你能告訴我們質量控制情況的最新情況嗎？僅就百分之幾的汽車仍在進行某種後期製作修補工作而言？

We actually don't have those figures handy. Wasn't expecting that question. It has dropped dramatically.

我們實際上手邊沒有這些數字。沒想到會問這個問題。它急劇下降。

I think the ability for us to produce cars at a steady rate of 400-plus a week is very much linked to our ability to produce quality cars on the line. And so those go hand-in-hand, and it has continued to improve significant.

我認為我們能夠以每週 400 多輛的穩定速度生產汽車的能力與我們在生產線上生產優質汽車的能力密切相關。因此，它們齊頭並進，並且不斷顯著改善。

Yes, there was a time several months ago where every car that came off the line would require some degree of rectification, but now that is a fairly small percentage. I don't know the exact percentage on hand, but it's a fairly small percentage. The other thing that's also worth noting is that anything which is software-related can be addressed by an over-the-air update, which is something that no other car company can do, and I think that's actually worked quite well.

是的，幾個月前曾經有一段時間，每輛下線的汽車都需要進行一定程度的整改，但現在這個比例相當小。我不知道手頭的確切百分比，但這是一個相當小的百分比。另一件值得注意的事情是，任何與軟件相關的事情都可以通過無線更新來解決，這是其他汽車公司無法做到的，我認為這實際上效果很好。

Great, thanks guys.

太好了，謝謝各位。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Patrick Archambault from Goldman Sachs.

來自高盛的 Patrick Archambault。

Great. Thank you very much. I guess my first question is, just given what you have said, when you're looking at net reservations, I think you said cancellations were going to be similar to what you saw in Q4. Production, you have obviously the guidance of 4500. Obviously, dependent on sort of what you do in terms of reservations during the quarter, but it sounds like that net reservation number is probably going to grind down a little bit in Q1, maybe even Q2, before it is kind of peaking up again. And is that correct? And sort of how do think about the trajectory of that overall net reservation number for this year?

偉大的。非常感謝。我想我的第一個問題是，鑑於您所說，當您查看淨預訂時，我認為您說取消將類似於您在第四季度看到的情況。生產，您顯然有 4500 的指導。顯然，這取決於您在本季度的預訂方面所做的事情，但聽起來淨預訂數量可能會在第一季度甚至第二季度有所下降，在它再次達到頂峰之前。這是正確的嗎？以及如何看待今年整體淨預訂量的軌跡？

Sure. Well, our intention is really not to have people wait six months for a car. We much prefer that our demand, generation, and production are closely synched, so that you order a car, you get it in less than a month, really. You'd ideally want to get a car within maybe a few weeks, or something like that. So it's not our intent to have a long waiting list. I think that's pretty inconvenient for people. The limitation on production, I mean where we said we think we can do at least 4500 this quarter, that is not in any way a demand, just to be clear, in any way a demand-related thing. That is purely a function of us being able to do steady-state production and do so efficiently. Our focus in Q1 is on production efficiency, improving gross margin, and making sure customers are really happy when they receive their car. It's important for us, I think, to operate at that steady state for a bit before we try to drive the number higher. But I do want to emphasize, we are not demand constrained. We are intentionally production constrained. Yes, That's, I think, a really important consideration, yes.

當然。好吧，我們的意圖真的是不讓人們等待六個月的汽車。我們更希望我們的需求、生產和生產緊密同步，這樣您就可以在不到一個月的時間內訂購汽車，真的。理想情況下，您可能希望在幾週內或類似的時間內獲得一輛車。因此，我們不打算有一個很長的等待名單。我認為這對人們來說很不方便。生產限制，我的意思是我們說我們認為本季度至少可以生產 4500 台，這絕不是需求，只是要明確一點，無論如何都是與需求相關的事情。這純粹是我們能夠進行穩態生產並有效地做到這一點的一個功能。我們在第一季度的重點是生產效率，提高毛利率，並確保客戶在收到汽車時真的很開心。我認為，在我們嘗試將數字推高之前，在穩定狀態下運行一段時間對我們來說很重要。但我確實想強調，我們不受需求限制。我們有意限制生產。是的，我認為這是一個非常重要的考慮因素，是的。

Thanks, that is helpful color. If I can just squeeze one quick one in for Deepak. On cash flow, I think you said Q1 would be break-even. Can you help us, from a modeling standpoint, think about the cash flow cadence as we're working through 2013? When is it that you would expect to move to positive? Understanding that there is obviously some seasonality elements to the production and working capital and what-have-you.

謝謝，這是有用的顏色。如果我能快速為迪帕克擠一個。關於現金流，我想你說第一季度會收支平衡。您能否從建模的角度幫助我們考慮 2013 年的現金流節奏？您預計什麼時候會轉為積極？了解生產和營運資金以及你有什麼顯然存在一些季節性因素。

Patrick, our focus, as Elon indicated, is on a variety of cost reduction and operations stabilization projects, which are all going to help us continue to generate more cash from the operations as each quarter goes by. Not sure if I can give you any further guidance beyond that. We feel very comfortable where we are as we look at our cash flows from operations. So I think we are in a good place.

正如 Elon 所說，Patrick 的重點是各種降低成本和穩定運營的項目，這些項目都將幫助我們隨著每個季度的流逝繼續從運營中產生更多現金。不知道我是否可以給你任何進一步的指導。當我們查看運營現金流時，我們感到非常自在。所以我認為我們處在一個好地方。

Yes. Okay, but there will be -- it will swing to positive during the year? I guess, would that be the --

是的。好的，但是會有 - 它會在年內轉為正數？我想，那會是——

Of course.

當然。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

And I think the key focus here is that we are starting the quarter and 2013 here being profitable, and then we just continue to grow on that.

我認為這裡的重點是我們從這個季度開始，到 2013 年開始盈利，然後我們繼續在此基礎上發展。

Yes. I mean, I think it starts with emphasizing this point, which is we really have very high confidence that we will have a profitable first quarter. And this is only the very first quarter that we actually have been at our target production rate. So we've had very little time to work on production efficiencies, improvements to gross margin, and all that. And despite all that, due to an enormous amount of hard work by a really dedicated group of people at Tesla, we're going to be profitable. And I think that's a pretty big deal. That's really an enormous amount of blood, sweat, and tears to get there. It really can't -- it would be difficult for me to overstate the level of difficulty. But we are going to do it. And I that's, I think -- so we're really proud of that, and I feel like we're halfway through the first quarter, and we can say that we are confident.

是的。我的意思是，我認為首先要強調這一點，那就是我們非常有信心第一季度將實現盈利。這只是我們實際達到目標生產率的第一季度。因此，我們幾乎沒有時間致力於提高生產效率、提高毛利率等等。儘管如此，由於特斯拉一群非常敬業的人的大量辛勤工作，我們將實現盈利。我認為這是一件大事。到達那裡確實需要大量的血汗和淚水。真的不能——我很難誇大難度。但我們會這樣做。我就是這樣，我想——所以我們真的為此感到自豪，我覺得我們在第一季度已經過了一半，我們可以說我們很有信心。

Great. Thanks a lot guys.

偉大的。非常感謝你們。

Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Good evening. This is EJ in for Adam. Could we step through your 1Q guidance for a bit? Given your guidance for 4500 deliveries, mid-teen gross margins, and that you're calling for a 15% reduction in R&D versus 4Q, and for SG&A to increase moderately, I'm having a bit of trouble getting to the slightly positive net income on a non-GAAP basis. Is there any re-bucketing of R&D cost going on? Or are there other significant developmental service revenue that we are missing here?

晚上好。這是亞當的 EJ。我們可以稍微介紹一下您的 1Q 指導嗎？鑑於您對 4500 次交付的指導、青少年中的毛利率，以及您要求研發與第四季度相比減少 15%，以及 SG&A 適度增加，我很難達到略微積極的淨值非公認會計原則基礎上的收入。研發成本是否會重新分攤？還是我們在這裡缺少其他重要的開發服務收入？

I think if you consider the combination of [more or less sales], or powertrain sales, or development revenue, and mid-teens gross margin, I think the guidance would probably lead you to somewhere along those lines close to something in the break-even range to slightly positive, should be close to break-even, and we were hoping to beat that.

我認為，如果您考慮[或多或少的銷售額]、動力總成銷售、開發收入和十幾歲的毛利率的組合，我認為該指導可能會引導您在這些方面接近突破的某個地方-偶數範圍略為正，應該接近收支平衡，我們希望能打敗它。

Okay, so there's not really any re-bucketing of R&D going on?

好的，所以真的沒有任何重新進行研發的工作嗎？

No.

不。

Okay.

好的。

We're not playing accounting games, and this is very much a function of Model S, not other things.

我們不是在玩會計遊戲，這在很大程度上是 Model S 的功能，而不是其他東西。

Got it. Switching gears to CapEx for second. I think you guys have previously expected about $240 million of CapEx for full-year 2012, but ended up, I think, a little over $270 million. Is that something that you pulled forward from 2013, or is there something structurally that we should be looking out for here?

知道了。第二次轉向資本支出。我想你們之前預計 2012 年全年的資本支出約為 2.4 億美元，但我認為最終會超過 2.7 億美元。這是你從 2013 年開始推進的，還是我們應該在這裡尋找結構上的東西？

We had some amount of pull-ahead of completion of production tooling, and completion of some of our equipment in-house, which resulted in higher CapEx, as well as some of the infrastructure of the store and IT infrastructure. Overall, I think it was a bit of a pull-ahead, but it's not surprising in the end.

我們提前完成了生產工具的完成，以及我們內部的一些設備的完成，這導致了更高的資本支出，以及商店的一些基礎設施和 IT 基礎設施。總的來說，我認為這有點領先，但最終並不令人驚訝。

Okay, great. Thanks very much.

好，太棒了。非常感謝。

Aaron Chew from Maxim Group.

馬克西姆集團的 Aaron Chew。

Good afternoon guys. Thanks for the question. Wondering if you could drill a little bit deeper into the slower pace of reservations in gen, and set the date following the price hike going into effect at year-end. Is it safe to say what you are saying is, it's down from December but still over the October/November levels? Maybe just given the big jump from 3Q to 4Q, if you could highlight if it's pacing above 3Q and below 4Q, or where you at what a little bit more in detail.

各位下午好。謝謝你的問題。想知道您是否可以更深入地了解 gen 中較慢的預訂速度，並在年底價格上漲生效後設定日期。可以肯定地說你所說的是，它比 12 月有所下降，但仍高於 10 月/11 月的水平嗎？也許只是考慮到從 3Q 到 4Q 的大躍進，如果你可以強調它是在 3Q 之上還是在 4Q 之下，或者你在什麼地方更詳細一點。

Actually, I'm not sure I recall offhand what our third quarter numbers were. I think, Aaron (multiple speakers) The key point to bear in mind, as I mentioned earlier, is we have enough reservations right now to fill out the year. With maybe -- and just on sheer momentum, sell every car we make, even if we closed every store we've got. There were certainly cancellations in January that were a function of asking people to confirm. So we're trying to clean out basically anyone who wasn't serious about buying a car. But I don't think those are indicative of demand for the rest of the year. If you -- okay, sorry. George just confirmed, yes. It is definitely higher than Q3.

實際上，我不確定我是否記得我們第三季度的數字是多少。我認為，Aaron（多位發言者） 正如我之前提到的，要記住的關鍵點是我們現在有足夠的預訂來填補這一年。也許——而且只是憑藉純粹的勢頭，賣掉我們生產的每一輛車，即使我們關閉了我們擁有的每一家商店。一月份肯定有取消，這是要求人們確認的功能。因此，我們基本上試圖清除那些不認真購買汽車的人。但我認為這些並不代表今年剩餘時間的需求。如果你——好吧，對不起。喬治剛剛證實，是的。它肯定高於第三季度。

Okay.

好的。

If you exclude the sort of reservations that were -- the cancellations that were just as a function of asking people to confirm their order or not, we have a lot of demand in North America. I would say well in excess of 0.5 of our 20,000 unit per year demand, or production target. So you may have heard me say this before, but where I think kind of demand breaks down between Asia, North America, and Europe is something like 10 to 15 in North America, probably 10 in Europe and maybe 10 to 15 in Asia. But it will take us some time to build up Asia, particularly China.

如果你排除那種預訂——取消只是作為要求人們確認他們的訂單的功能，我們在北美有很多需求。我會說遠遠超過我們每年 20,000 個單位的需求或生產目標的 0.5 個。所以你以前可能聽我說過，但我認為亞洲、北美和歐洲之間的需求在北美有 10 到 15 個，歐洲可能有 10 個，亞洲可能有 10 到 15 個。但是我們需要一些時間來建設亞洲，尤其是中國。

It doesn't really affect, I think, this year all that much. I am quite certain that we will flip it more than 20,000 cars this year. And that's not really a concern. Like I said, literally we could say goodbye to every store and every sales person and still meet that target. But we want to make sure that we have laid the groundwork for an improvement above 20,000 units a year in 2014. So as we're thinking about demand generation, it's really not about this year. It's about how do we exceed the 20,000 unit number next year.

我認為，這並沒有真正影響到今年。我很確定我們今年將翻轉它超過 20,000 輛汽車。這並不是一個真正的問題。就像我說的，從字面上看，我們可以告別每一家商店和每一位銷售人員，但仍能實現這一目標。但我們希望確保我們已經為 2014 年每年超過 20,000 個單位的改進奠定了基礎。因此，當我們考慮需求產生時，這實際上與今年無關。這是關於我們明年如何超過 20,000 個單位的數量。

Okay, excellent, and then if I could shift real quick to the production side. Now that you have fully reached your target rate of production for the 20,000 pace, just wondering if you have been able to identify sort of how much flex you may have in that on a weekly basis, I mean, especially if you are thinking of 4500 in 1Q. Is up to 425 potentially, 450, or is there a way you can maybe quantify that, just so we can understand how you are able to meet that 20,000 sort of in the back half?

好的，太好了，然後如果我能真正快速地轉移到生產方面。現在您已經完全達到了 20,000 步的目標生產率，只是想知道您是否能夠確定每周可以有多少彈性，我的意思是，特別是如果您正在考慮 4500在 1Q。可能達到 425 人，450 人，還是有辦法量化它，這樣我們才能理解你是如何在後半場達到 20,000 人的？

Yes. I think our production rate will be in excess of 20,000 unit a year annualized rate in the second half of the year. For this quarter and for probably most of next quarter, you have to decide what the relative focus is, and I think the important thing for us to focus on right now is production efficiency and improving gross margin rather than scaling up production. And right now we've got a pretty large number of temporary workers, and that they're essentially were hired to deal with manufacturing inefficiencies. And it is really important that we improve the manufacturing efficiency and can reduce the number of temps, essentially.

是的。我認為下半年我們的年產量將超過20,000台。對於本季度以及下一季度的大部分時間，您必須確定相對重點是什麼，我認為我們現在關注的重要事情是生產效率和提高毛利率，而不是擴大生產。現在我們有大量的臨時工，他們基本上是被雇用來處理製造效率低下的問題。從本質上講，提高製造效率並減少臨時工的數量非常重要。

We should expect to see an increase in fulltime employees from beginning quarter to end of quarter. It's real important that we make some progress, significant progress, in reducing the size of the temporary labor force, and addressing the manufacturing inefficiencies. In any company, you've got to focus on what is important at any one time, and production efficiency is the thing to. If we wanted to, we could raise production right now to 500 units a week. That's probably what we could do right now. It would do so at the expense of efficiency, and we have a lot of overtime and that kind of thing. Right now it's really just focus on efficiency, at the risk of being repetitive, sorry.

我們應該期望看到從季度開始到季度末全職員工的增加。在減少臨時勞動力的規模和解決製造效率低下方面，我們取得一些進展、重大進展是非常重要的。在任何一家公司，你都必須在任何時候都專注於重要的事情，而生產效率才是重點。如果我們願意，我們現在可以將產量提高到每週 500 台。這大概就是我們現在能做的。這樣做會以犧牲效率為代價，而且我們有很多加班之類的事情。現在它真的只關注效率，冒著重複的風險，對不起。

All right, very helpful. Thanks so much for the question.

好的，很有幫助。非常感謝這個問題。

Amir Rozwadowski from Barclays.

來自巴克萊的 Amir Rozwadowski。

Just following up on that question of focus Elon. Is really sort of optimizing your workforce the primary barrier to getting to that 25% gross margin target, given that you are relatively a stone's throw away from sort of your optimal production rate?

只是跟進埃隆的焦點問題。考慮到您距離最佳生產率僅一步之遙，優化您的勞動力真的是實現 25% 毛利率目標的主要障礙嗎？

There are a number of things. I mean, actually generally speaking, but the car business is a pretty cost-efficient business. I mean, it may not be great at a lot of things, sort of breakthrough technology and that kind of thing, but it's pretty good at cost optimization. So in order for us to be competitive, it takes a lot of work on all fronts. Certainly reducing the labor hours and the amount of overtime. I mean, in December, even though we were cash flow positive, it sort of comfortable on a per car basis when all things are considered. The amount of overtime that was required to achieve the 400 cars per week was pretty extreme. That has improved dramatically just coming into January and then February.

有很多事情。我的意思是，實際上一般來說，但汽車業務是一項非常具有成本效益的業務。我的意思是，它在很多事情上可能並不出色，比如突破性技術之類的事情，但它在成本優化方面相當不錯。因此，為了使我們具有競爭力，需要在各個方面進行大量工作。當然可以減少工時和加班量。我的意思是，在 12 月，即使我們的現金流為正，但考慮到所有因素，按每輛車計算還是很舒服的。達到每週 400 輛汽車所需的加班時間非常極端。到 1 月和 2 月，這種情況有了顯著改善。

We've gone from, I think it was an average of over 60 hours a week, almost 70 hours a week in December. Yes, exactly. It was somewhere between 50% and 70% above 40 hours. In other words, it was like an average 68-hour week that people worked in December, which is also a tough thing for people to sustain, it's a sort of burnout level. But it also drives the cost to a pretty extreme level, because above 60 hours a week, you are actually in double-time. Above 40 hours a week, you're in overtime. So now we have gone to, down to the point where we're at maybe a 50-hour week. So from something like, I said, something like almost a 70-hour week average in December to about a 50-hour week now, and then driving that to kind of the mid-40s in March. In addition to reducing the total number of people needed to get the car.

我們已經離開了，我認為平均每週工作超過 60 小時，12 月幾乎每週工作 70 小時。對，就是這樣。 40 小時以上的時間在 50% 到 70% 之間。換句話說，就像人們在 12 月平均每週工作 68 小時一樣，這對人們來說也是一件很難維持的事情，這是一種倦怠程度。但這也將成本推到了一個相當極端的水平，因為每週超過 60 小時，你實際上是在雙倍時間。每週超過 40 小時，你就處於加班狀態。所以現在我們已經到了每週工作 50 小時的地步。因此，我說，從 12 月平均每週工作近 70 小時到現在每週工作約 50 小時，然後在 3 月將其推高到 40 年代中期。除了減少取車所需的總人數。

So the labor hours per car are dropping dramatically. That maybe the single biggest factor, but close behind it are things like logistics and supply parts. Another thing that we had to do that was really inefficient in fourth quarter was we had to fly a lot of stuff, and when you fly something, it can cost as much as 10 times what it cost to ship it by sea or rail or truck. [particularly] if it's heavy. So we have to do some pretty dumb things like fly tires from the Czech Republic. I kid you not. That was one of the -- I wanted to punch myself in the face for that one. At the risk of fooling around, I will just give you a little anecdote. They're are 100 things like this.

因此，每輛車的工時急劇下降。這可能是最大的一個因素，但緊隨其後的是物流和供應零件之類的事情。第四季度我們不得不做的另一件事效率很低，那就是我們必須飛很多東西，當你飛一些東西時，它的成本可能是海運、鐵路或卡車運輸成本的 10 倍. [特別是]如果它很重。所以我們必須做一些非常愚蠢的事情，比如捷克共和國的飛輪胎。我不騙你。那是其中之一——我想為那個打自己的臉。冒著鬼鬼祟祟的危險，我只是給你一個小軼事。他們有100個這樣的東西。

As it turns out, we have a supplier for the 21-inch tires that is in the Czech Republic, and it was taking -- we have 30-day payment terms with them. And when they were shipping the tires, it actually took longer than 30 days to get to us. So the tires would get to us, and it would be past due. So that happened a number of months, and then they put a hold on the shipments because we hadn't paid on time, even though we weren't getting the tires before we were getting the bill. They put the hold on that, and anyway. So that was just a big [catastrophe] that we had to fly a bunch of tires from the Czech Republic just to keep production going. That'll give you one sort of extreme example of how logistics can actually go bonkers. That's also dropped dramatically in the first quarter.

事實證明，我們在捷克共和國有一家供應 21 英寸輪胎的供應商，而且我們與他們有 30 天的付款期限。當他們運送輪胎時，實際上花了超過 30 天的時間才送到我們這裡。所以輪胎會到我們這裡，這將是過期的。所以這發生了幾個月，然後他們暫停了發貨，因為我們沒有按時付款，即使我們在收到賬單之前沒有拿到輪胎。他們對此有所保留，無論如何。所以這只是一個很大的[災難]，我們不得不從捷克共和國飛來一堆輪胎來維持生產。這會給你一個極端的例子，說明物流實際上是如何變得瘋狂的。這在第一季度也急劇下降。

And then in terms of supplied parts, as I mentioned, there's a huge number of supplier cost reductions taking place, because just as we have inefficiencies, so do our suppliers. One of the biggest challenges we actually had, and I don't mean to unload on you guys who are on the call. But the industry estimates for the number of cars that we make were quite low. So for example, there's an organization called HIS, which does industry estimates on production volumes. They had us down at 1500 units a year. For a number of our suppliers, when -- they didn't look at our forecast, they looked at the HIS forecast, and they didn't believe our forecast.

然後就供應的零件而言，正如我所提到的，供應商的成本正在大幅降低，因為正如我們效率低下一樣，我們的供應商也是如此。我們實際上遇到的最大挑戰之一，我並不是要讓你們這些正在通話的人承擔責任。但業界對我們生產的汽車數量的估計非常低。例如，有一個叫做 HIS 的組織，它對產量進行行業估計。他們讓我們每年減少 1500 個單位。對於我們的許多供應商，當他們沒有查看我們的預測時，他們查看了 HIS 的預測，但他們不相信我們的預測。

So they tooled up for some puny number of parts, for very low production volume. And then were caught flat-footed when we said, no we actually did mean the order that we sent you. We're making 20,000 units a year, not 1500 units a year. We've had a number of such conversations where our suppliers finally realized that we weren't kidding about that and took the steps necessary to supply us with the parts. And I think we're starting to get beyond silly things like that and get into a steady cadence of production, and suppliers are starting to take our volumes seriously and to offer us prices that are actually competitive in the market. Deepak, is there anything want to add to that?

因此，他們為一些微不足道的零件進行了加工，產量非常低。然後當我們說，不，我們確實是指我們發送給您的命令時，我們措手不及。我們每年生產 20,000 台，而不是 1500 台。我們進行了多次這樣的對話，我們的供應商最終意識到我們不是在開玩笑，並採取了必要的步驟為我們提供零件。而且我認為我們開始超越那些愚蠢的事情，進入穩定的生產節奏，供應商開始認真對待我們的產量，並為我們提供在市場上真正具有競爭力的價格。 Deepak，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think those are all very good points, plus our engineering teams are working closely on identifying efficiencies and material costs, both internally and with our suppliers. So that is a huge focus, which is bringing a lot costs down. Very positive momentum on that.

我認為這些都是非常好的觀點，而且我們的工程團隊正在密切合作，在內部和與我們的供應商一起確定效率和材料成本。所以這是一個巨大的焦點，這會降低很多成本。非常積極的勢頭。

Sorry. (multiple speakers) One thing I should add is for a number of our supplies, we actually have price breaks that occur at certain volume levels and at certain calendar points, in particular, for example, our deal with Panasonic. That's a huge factor. As we pass certain calendar points and certain production volumes, the cost of the sales in our [value] pack drops, and that has been quite helpful.

對不起。 （多位發言者）我應該補充的一件事是，對於我們的一些供應品，我們實際上在某些音量水平和某些日曆點上會出現價格中斷，特別是，例如，我們與松下的交易。這是一個很大的因素。當我們通過某些日曆點和某些產量時，我們 [value] 包裝中的銷售成本會下降，這非常有幫助。

I guess, given where you are in terms of your production now, and some of the issues seem to be in the rear-view mirror, I mean, what is your sort of comfortable in sort of meeting or even exceeding that 25% target?

我想，考慮到你現在的生產情況，有些問題似乎在後視鏡中，我的意思是，你對達到甚至超過 25% 的目標有什麼感覺？

I'm highly confident that we will be above 25% gross margin, without considering zero emission credits, by the end of this year.

我非常有信心，在不考慮零排放信用的情況下，到今年年底，我們的毛利率將超過 25%。

Great. Thank you very much for the incremental color.

偉大的。非常感謝您提供的增量顏色。

You're welcome.

別客氣。

John Lovallo from Merrill Lynch.

來自美林證券的約翰·洛瓦洛。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the call. First question, Elon, would be for you. Despite all the noise in the press and all the back-and-forth. I mean, do see kind of the potential necessary additional planning for a driver of an electric vehicle? I mean, do you see that as a headwind? Are you hearing that from anybody?

大家好。感謝您接聽電話。埃隆，第一個問題是給你的。儘管新聞界有各種噪音和所有來回。我的意思是，是否看到電動汽車駕駛員可能需要的額外計劃？我的意思是，你認為這是逆風嗎？你是從任何人那裡聽到的嗎？

I think for a long-distance trip right now, depending upon where you are in the country, a little bit of extra planning is needed. I think if you're in California or Nevada, we've got a good density of Superchargers for long-distance driving, so you don't really have to worry about it. The ideal density of Superchargers is maybe around roughly every 120 to 150 miles. Where it is right now on East Coast from DC to Boston, it's about every 200 miles, because we only have two. But we have a bunch more Superchargers that are going into the East Coast and across the country, into Texas, the Seattle area, Chicago, and really want to get to the point where you don't even have to think about it, and I think we're very close to the point. So at some distant point in the future.

我認為現在的長途旅行，取決於你在這個國家的哪個地方，需要一些額外的計劃。我認為，如果您在加利福尼亞或內華達州，我們為長途駕駛提供了良好的增壓器密度，因此您不必擔心。增壓器的理想密度大約是每 120 到 150 英里。現在在東海岸，從華盛頓特區到波士頓，大約每 200 英里一趟，因為我們只有兩趟。但是我們有更多的超級充電站正在進入東海岸和全國各地，進入德克薩斯州、西雅圖地區、芝加哥，並且真的很想達到你甚至不必考慮它的地步，我認為我們非常接近這一點。所以在未來的某個遙遠的時刻。

We're very rapidly deploying the network of Superchargers, and we're hooking that into the software in the cars, the navigation system will automatically route you to a Supercharger. You plug in wherever you want to go, and it will just route you through the Supercharger network to get where you to go. So you don't even have to think about it. All that is going to happen like in the next several months, it's not far away. I think when people actually use the Supercharger system, which is free, by the way. That seems to be lost in this whole debate. With what card do you have free long distance? It's pretty fricking great, I think. And we're continuing to improve the rate at which the Supercharger can put energy into the car.

我們正在非常迅速地部署增壓器網絡，並將其連接到汽車的軟件中，導航系統會自動將您引導至增壓器。無論你想去哪裡，你都可以插上電源，它只會引導你通過 Supercharger 網絡到達你要去的地方。所以你甚至不必考慮它。所有這一切都將在接下來的幾個月內發生，它並不遙遠。順便說一句，我認為當人們真正使用免費的增壓系統時。這似乎在整個辯論中消失了。用什麼卡可以免費長途？我認為這非常棒。我們正在繼續提高增壓器向汽車注入能量的速度。

We have deployed some of the solar panels over the Superchargers. We're going to start deploying a lot more, which cuts our cost of electricity down. And it's pretty awesome, I think. And then there is -- we've got a fairly, I think, meaningful announcement about a step change in super-charging technology coming later this year. That's actually originally what we were going to talk -- that's sort of first thing what we wanted to do the article in the New York Times about. I don't know, who knows, maybe we will ultimately do it with? But I think that's going to be -- people are going to be pretty interested in that announcement when it comes out. And this whole thing of the does the car work in the cold, and yes, it works really well, actually. We're going to make it work even better over time. It does lose 10% of its range in winter if it's very cold, but so do gasoline cars. People kind of forget about that too.

我們在增壓器上部署了一些太陽能電池板。我們將開始部署更多設備，從而降低我們的電力成本。我認為這非常棒。然後是——我認為，我們有一個公平的、有意義的公告，關於今年晚些時候超級充電技術的一步變化。這實際上是我們最初要談論的內容——這是我們想要在《紐約時報》上發表文章的第一件事。我不知道，誰知道，也許我們最終會這樣做？但我認為這將是——當它發佈時，人們會對該公告非常感興趣。這整件事讓汽車在寒冷的環境中工作，是的，它真的很好用，實際上。隨著時間的推移，我們將使它工作得更好。如果冬天很冷，它確實會損失 10% 的續航里程，但汽油車也是如此。人們也有點忘記了這一點。

Okay. That is very helpful. And then Deepak, the Q4 step-up in developmental services revenue, was that more of a kind of true-up from the third quarter where possibly some of that Daimler got pushed back?

好的。這很有幫助。然後 Deepak，第四季度開發服務收入的增長，是否更像是第三季度的一種真實情況，戴姆勒可能會被推遲？

Partially yes. That's right.

部分是的。這是正確的。

Okay. Thanks very much, guys.

好的。非常感謝，伙計們。

Dan Galves from Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的丹·加爾維斯。

You guys have probably by this point asked most of your current US backlog to configure their vehicle, or to confirm. Just wanted to know what you have learned about likely ordering patterns in terms of battery size, options, et cetera. And do you have any sense of where average transaction prices may shake out this year?

到目前為止，你們可能已經詢問了你們目前在美國的大部分積壓工作，以配置他們的車輛，或進行確認。只是想知道您從電池尺寸、選項等方面了解了可能的訂購模式。你知道今年平均交易價格會在哪裡震盪嗎？

Well, it's definitely more people are ordering the larger battery pack than we thought. It seems to be that, I can say less than 10% of people are ordering the 40-kilowatt hour pack. That's an interesting data point. Not saying that couldn't change in the future, but that's what we're seeing right now. So maybe 10% or less. A majority of people are ordering the big battery pack, actually, which is -- again, I wouldn't count on that in the long-term, but the majority of people are actually -- more than 30% are ordering the 85-kilowatt hour pack, which is a positive surprise, and hopefully that continues. I think that's the best experience that somebody could have with the car. Hopefully that keeps going into the future.

好吧，訂購更大電池組的人肯定比我們想像的要多。似乎是這樣，我可以說不到 10% 的人訂購了 40 千瓦時的包。這是一個有趣的數據點。並不是說這在未來不會改變，但這就是我們現在所看到的。所以可能是 10% 或更少。實際上，大多數人都在訂購大電池組，這是 - 再說一次，我不會指望長期如此，但實際上大多數人 - 超過 30% 正在訂購 85-千瓦時包，這是一個積極的驚喜，希望這種情況繼續下去。我認為這是有人可以擁有這輛車的最佳體驗。希望這會一直持續到未來。

Any revenue outlook for this year that you could provide for us? In terms of average transaction prices?

您可以為我們提供今年的收入前景嗎？以平均交易價格計算？

I guess our inclination is to take it one quarter at a time, but I it's looking -- I don't think people will be disappointed by the revenue numbers this year. I think people will react positively to the revenue number that occurs in this year. And then obviously we want to make sure that we have laid the groundwork this year for a meaningful increase in 2014 as well.

我想我們傾向於一次一個季度接受它，但我正在尋找——我認為人們不會對今年的收入數字感到失望。我認為人們會對今年出現的收入數字做出積極反應。然後很明顯，我們希望確保我們在今年為 2014 年的有意義的增長奠定了基礎。

Okay, great, and one other one. How much in terms of deferral's are you experiencing as you go through your reservation book? And just wondering, how many people are really looking for a US leasing option, and if you could provide us any update on the likelihood of a US lease this year, that would be great. Thanks.

好的，很好，還有一個。您在瀏覽預訂簿時遇到了多少延期？只是想知道，有多少人真正在尋找美國租賃選擇，如果您能向我們提供有關今年美國租賃可能性的任何最新信息，那就太好了。謝謝。

Yes. Well, we do see some deferral's taking place, because we have a new color coming out, which is a really great color. I have to admit it, it's a really great color. We spent a lot of time on that red, but [then] I'm suggesting anyone delay their order, but it is an awesome red. So we've got a lot of interest in that. They're saying people that don't want the air springs, even I think that's actually something people should really -- it's worth getting, but some people don't want to get it. And there's a little bit of deferral on that front, but we are not really seeing deferral -- is mostly deferral because certain options aren't available right now, as opposed to other reasons, really. And then, sorry, what was the second question?

是的。好吧，我們確實看到了一些延期，因為我們推出了一種新顏色，這是一種非常棒的顏色。我不得不承認，它是一個非常棒的顏色。我們在那個紅色上花了很多時間，但是[然後]我建議任何人推遲他們的訂單，但它是一個很棒的紅色。所以我們對此很感興趣。他們說人們不想要空氣彈簧，即使我認為這實際上是人們真正應該得到的東西——值得得到，但有些人不想得到它。在這方面有一點延期，但我們並沒有真正看到延期 - 主要是延期，因為某些選項現在不可用，而不是其他原因，真的。然後，對不起，第二個問題是什麼？

Leasing, yes. All of the sales and all the things I mentioned thus far are with zero North American leasing. We don't even offer leasing in North America. That is something that we do want to offer it, maybe second half of the year. So we want to make sure that the terms of the lease, like the interest rate and all that are compelling. Even if we did zero leasing in North America, we could still sell all of our production this year. Leasing is entirely optional for us at this point. And we only want to come out with a leasing product that is compelling. We don't want to come out with kind of a lame leasing product. And we are talking with some of the major financial institutions a little about doing leasing, and those talks are progressing in a good direction.

租賃，是的。到目前為止，我提到的所有銷售和所有事情都是在北美零租賃的情況下進行的。我們甚至不在北美提供租賃服務。這是我們確實想提供的東西，也許是今年下半年。因此，我們要確保租賃條款，如利率等具有說服力的內容。即使我們在北美進行零租賃，我們今年仍然可以出售我們所有的產品。在這一點上，租賃對我們來說完全是可選的。而且我們只想推出具有吸引力的租賃產品。我們不想推出一種蹩腳的租賃產品。我們正在與一些主要的金融機構就租賃進行一些討論，這些談判正在朝著好的方向發展。

But in order for us to get the best rates for our customers, I mean, we're not really interested in making a bunch of incremental money from leasing, but we want to make sure we get a good deal for customers. It's important for those big financial institutions to feel really comfortable with Tesla. One of the reasons it can be helpful for us to be powerful this quarter and subsequent quarters is to give greater confidence to the large banks in giving us, our for customers, a good leasing interest rate. I think that's usually happening to the big financial companies. And I do see long-term, not so much this year. I think this year leasing's going to comprise a very small percentage of our volume, but I do think next year leasing will be a big factor. And within Europe, it will be at least a moderate factor this year. We already have a significant leasing deal signed with Aplong, which is one of the major European leasing companies.

但為了讓我們為客戶獲得最優惠的價格，我的意思是，我們對通過租賃賺取大量增量資金並不真正感興趣，但我們希望確保我們為客戶獲得優惠。對於那些大型金融機構來說，真正對特斯拉感到滿意是很重要的。在本季度和隨後幾個季度變得強大對我們有所幫助的原因之一是讓大型銀行更有信心為我們（我們的客戶）提供良好的租賃利率。我認為這通常發生在大型金融公司身上。我確實看到了長期的，今年沒有那麼多。我認為今年的租賃將只占我們交易量的一小部分，但我確實認為明年的租賃將是一個重要因素。而在歐洲，今年至少會是一個溫和的因素。我們已經與歐洲主要租賃公司之一的 Aplong 簽署了一項重要的租賃協議。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Elaine Kwei from Jefferies.

來自 Jefferies 的 Elaine Kwei。

Hi everyone. Congrats on hitting some pretty big milestones this quarter. And actually just following up on the demand generation for 2014, I was curious, what percentages of the new reservations you are seeing coming from stores, and are you seeing a pretty good correlation there with reservation growth and the store openings? I know you probably don't want to give away any tricks up your sleeve, but in terms of just general ideas for the next steps in marketing, do you pursue some traditional automotive channels, or are you still primarily going to rely on the stores and perhaps word-of-mouth or other alternative methods?

大家好。恭喜本季度取得了一些相當大的里程碑。實際上只是跟進 2014 年的需求產生，我很好奇，你看到的新預訂中來自商店的百分比是多少，你是否看到那裡與預訂增長和商店開業有很好的相關性？我知道您可能不想透露任何技巧，但就營銷下一步的總體思路而言，您是追求一些傳統的汽車渠道，還是主要依靠商店也許是口耳相傳或其他替代方法？

There's nothing better at the end of the day than word-of-mouth, which has really been fantastic. In fact, we see a lot of demand occurring where we have delivered the most cars, because that's where the most word-of-mouth occurs, which I think is a really good predictor for the future. As for the stores themselves, George?

一天結束時，沒有什麼比口耳相傳更好的了，這真是太棒了。事實上，我們看到在我們交付了最多汽車的地方出現了很多需求，因為那裡是口碑最多的地方，我認為這是對未來的一個很好的預測。至於商店本身，喬治？

Yes. What we're seeing in the stores is that some people come in, they see the car, and they want to put a reservation down today. My gosh, how do I get one as soon as possible? Other people that want to come back, they want to ask some questions, and they keep coming back, and the beauty of the stores is they are located in locations where people frequent on a regular basis. So they don't have to go out of their way to stop back and asked future questions. That's working really, really well. I think when we start looking at 2014 and 2015, I think what we need to do is step back and understand that in our segment, the Model S segment of automobile sales worldwide, less than 30% of them are done in the United States.

是的。我們在商店看到的是，有些人進來了，他們看到了車，就想今天預訂。天哪，我怎樣才能盡快得到一個？其他想回來的人，他們想問一些問題，並且不斷回來，商店的美妙之處在於它們位於人們經常光顧的地方。所以他們不必特意停下來問未來的問題。這真的很有效。我認為當我們開始回顧 2014 年和 2015 年時，我認為我們需要做的是退後一步，了解在我們的細分市場，全球汽車銷售的 Model S 細分市場，其中不到 30% 是在美國完成的。

There's this massive opportunity for us as we go international where we haven't even tapped it with one new design story yet. None of the stores we have anywhere in the world are like the stores we have in North America in a high-traffic shopping center. We will start doing those this year, so we can start having the same results and getting in front of people elsewhere outside the United States, like we are doing here. And that is one of the things we're going to do in China. We are opening up in this really, really great shopping center in Beijing in the spring that is a high-traffic location.

隨著我們走向國際，我們甚至還沒有利用一個新的設計故事來挖掘它，這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。我們在世界任何地方的商店都不像我們在北美的高流量購物中心的商店。我們將在今年開始這樣做，這樣我們就可以開始取得相同的結果，並在美國以外的其他地方出現在人們面前，就像我們在這裡所做的那樣。這是我們在中國要做的事情之一。春天，我們將在北京這個非常非常棒的購物中心開業，那裡交通繁忙。

We've got one scheduled for Hong Kong, we've got one scheduled that we're looking at in a couple of other countries in Europe. And when people come in and they interact with us when there not thinking about a car, it's like the best experience you could have with them, and then when it comes time to buy a car, they think, that's where I want to buy it and that's who I want to buy from. As a result, the longer a store is open and the more cars that are on the road around those stores, the more effective the store has become. The longer a store is open, the better.

我們有一個計劃在香港，我們有一個計劃在歐洲其他幾個國家進行。當人們進來並在沒有考慮汽車的情況下與我們互動時，這就像您可以與他們一起獲得的最佳體驗，然後到了買車的時候，他們認為，這就是我想買的地方那就是我想買的人。結果，商店營業的時間越長，商店周圍道路上的汽車越多，商店的效率就越高。商店營業時間越長越好。

That's great color. Would you be able to give us an update on Model X reservations at this time, or maybe perhaps some rough timing around when you might start to step up the marketing push on that one?

這顏色真好。您能否在此時向我們提供有關 Model X 預訂的最新信息，或者也許是您可能開始加強對該車型的營銷推動的大致時間？

Sure. Because we haven't pushed the Model S at all, in fact we literally only have one demonstration unit even. So I wouldn't want people to necessarily judge us against the progress of Model X. Rather than comment on it and have people infer something about that number, I will just say I am pretty happy with how those reservations are going with basically zero effort. Really, it is a doughnut. And I actually think that we're likely to see buying interest for Model X that is at least 70%, or thereabouts, that of the model S. And in certain countries, I think it will probably exceed the model S in demand.

當然。因為我們根本沒有推過 Model S，實際上我們甚至只有一個演示單元。所以我不希望人們根據 Model X 的進展來評判我們。與其評論它並讓人們推斷出這個數字，我只想說我很高興這些保留的進展情況基本上是零努力.真的，這是一個甜甜圈。實際上，我認為我們可能會看到 Model X 的購買興趣至少是 Model S 的 70% 左右。在某些國家，我認為它的需求可能會超過 Model S。

Great. Thanks so much guys, and congrats again.

偉大的。非常感謝各位，再次恭喜。

Thanks. We have time for one more question. One more caller, please.

謝謝。我們有時間再問一個問題。請再來一位來電者。

Andrea James from Dougherty & Company.

來自 Dougherty & Company 的 Andrea James。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. You are suggesting positive incoming Q1, and just, I guess, what still needs to happen to get there, if anything? And then would anything throw that off for the rest of the year, as well?

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。您是在建議積極的第一季度到來，我想，如果有的話，還需要做什麼才能到達那裡？那麼在今年餘下的時間裡，還有什麼事情會解決這個問題嗎？

Sure, good question. I mean, unless there is some force majeure event, like a giant earthquake or something, or a big flood or typhoon, we feel really confident. In fact, it's safe to say that we will be comfortable in the absence of a force majeure event this quarter. It's my aspiration, and I think it's the aspiration of everyone at Tesla, to be profitable in subsequent quarters as well. I'm cautiously optimistic about that, but I don't want to commit to it until I know more. We're committing to Q1, and I think cautiously optimistic about Q2, is a way to think about it.

當然，好問題。我的意思是，除非發生不可抗力事件，比如大地震或其他什麼，或者大洪水或颱風，否則我們會感到非常有信心。事實上，可以肯定地說，在本季度沒有不可抗力事件的情況下，我們會感到很自在。這是我的願望，我認為這是特斯拉每個人的願望，在隨後的幾個季度也能盈利。我對此持謹慎樂觀的態度，但在我了解更多之前我不想承諾。我們致力於第一季度，我認為對第二季度持謹慎樂觀態度是一種思考方式。

What sort of information would sort of make you more constructive on Q2? What do you hope to learn as Q1 goes on?

什麼樣的信息會讓你在第二季度更具建設性？隨著 Q1 的進行，您希望學到什麼？

Well, maybe I am hedging too much. I just don't want to be overconfident, really. I mean, I do think we will be profitable in Q2, and subsequent quarters too. But I guess rather than sort of an absolute commitment, I would say I'm just really highly confidence of that being the case.

好吧，也許我對沖太多了。我只是不想過於自信，真的。我的意思是，我確實認為我們將在第二季度以及隨後的幾個季度實現盈利。但我想，與其說是絕對的承諾，不如說我對這種情況非常有信心。

No, that make sense. Thank you so much.

不，這是有道理的。太感謝了。

You are welcome.

不客氣。

Okay, thank you everyone for calling. Want to thank you all for joining us this afternoon. We look forward to seeing you in the coming weeks, either on a factory tour or on our travels to see you. Goodbye.

好的，謝謝大家的來電。感謝大家今天下午加入我們。我們期待在接下來的幾週內見到您，無論是在工廠參觀還是在我們的旅行中見到您。再見。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for participating in today's program. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們，先生們，感謝您參加今天的節目。程序到此結束。你們都可以斷開連接。