特斯拉 (TSLA) 2013 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to your Tesla Motors third-quarter 2013 financial results Q&A conference call. At this time, all participants will be in a listen-only mode, but later there will be a chance to ask questions, and instructions will be given at that time.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到特斯拉汽車公司 2013 年第三季度財務業績問答電話會議。此時，所有參與者將處於只聽模式，但稍後將有機會提問，屆時將給出指示。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And as a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. And now I would like to turn the call over to your host, Jeff Evanson.

提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將電話轉給您的主持人 Jeff Evanson。

Thank you, Jon, and good afternoon, everyone, and our welcome as well to our Q&A webcast. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman and CEO, and Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，喬恩，大家下午好，我們也歡迎我們的問答網絡廣播。今天，特斯拉董事長兼首席執行官埃隆馬斯克和特斯拉首席財務官迪帕克阿胡賈加入了我的行列。

We announced the financial results for our third quarter shortly after the close of trading today. The shareholder letter, financial results, and webcast of this Q&A session are all available at our Investor Relations website at ir.TeslaMotors.com. A replay of this webcast will be available at the same site later today.

今天收盤後不久，我們公佈了第三季度的財務業績。本次問答環節的股東信函、財務業績和網絡直播均可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.TeslaMotors.com 上獲取。該網絡廣播的重播將於今天晚些時候在同一站點上播放。

Please note that certain financial measures that we used on the call, such as revenue and income, are expressed on a non-GAAP basis, and have been adjusted to exclude the effects of lease accounting on Model S sales and changes related to stock-based compensation, and non-cash interest expense. Our GAAP results and reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP measures can be found in our earnings press release.

請注意，我們在電話會議上使用的某些財務指標（例如收入和收入）是在非公認會計原則的基礎上表示的，並且已進行調整以排除租賃會計對 Model S 銷售的影響以及與基於庫存的變化相關的影響補償和非現金利息費用。我們的 GAAP 結果以及非 GAAP 與 GAAP 措施的對賬可以在我們的收益新聞稿中找到。

During the course of this call, we may discuss our business outlook, and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are predictions based on management's expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially, due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recently-filed 10-Q with the SEC. And now, Jon, why don't you give the instructions for asking a question, and then we'll turn it right over to your first question.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會討論我們的業務前景，並做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理層截至今天的預期的預測。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。現在，喬恩，你為什麼不給出提出問題的說明，然後我們將把它轉給你的第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Jamie Albertine, Stifel.

傑米·艾伯丁，Stifel。

The first question I had was, going back to some comments you had made on the last quarterly conference call around gross margin visibility, I think if I heard it correctly, you basically said you had a pretty good feel where the fourth quarter was going to be about a month before the fourth quarter happened. So, given the sequential gross margin expansion that we saw in the third quarter, what update are you able to give us for the fourth quarter at this point? Thanks.

我的第一個問題是，回到你在上一個季度電話會議上關於毛利率可見性的一些評論，我想如果我沒聽錯的話，你基本上說你對第四季度的走勢有很好的感覺大約在第四季度發生前一個月。那麼，鑑於我們在第三季度看到的連續毛利率增長，您現在可以為第四季度提供什麼更新？謝謝。

Sure. So, we expect to track to 25% gross margin in the fourth quarter, excluding ZEV credits -- excluding the zero emission vehicle credits. Yes, I feel pretty confident about that outcome, unless there's some force majeure event, and also we're roughly halfway through the fourth quarter. So, I think that's almost half, halfway through so I think that's pretty secure. And then, we'll probably deliver more cars.

當然。因此，我們預計第四季度毛利率將達到 25%，不包括 ZEV 積分——不包括零排放汽車積分。是的，我對這個結果很有信心，除非有一些不可抗力事件，而且我們大約在第四季度進行到一半。所以，我認為這幾乎是一半，一半，所以我認為這是非常安全的。然後，我們可能會交付更多的汽車。

One thing that I hope was clear in the shareholder letter, but maybe it wasn't, is that we really are production constrained, not demand constrained. So we're working hard to address the production constraints and then improve the effective deliveries, because the thing that people still don't quite get is that we're different in a fundamental way from other car companies. And it doesn't make sense for us to do things to amplify demand, if we can't meet that demand with production. So, what we spend our time doing here, the Management team is trying to figure out how do we ramp up production faster and obviously maintain good quality and keep improving the product. And, so that's where -- we expect to alleviate a lot of those production constraints next year.

我希望在股東信中明確的一件事，但也許不是，那就是我們確實受到生產限制，而不是需求限制。因此，我們正在努力解決生產限制，然後改進有效交付，因為人們仍然不太明白的是，我們在根本上與其他汽車公司不同。如果我們不能通過生產滿足需求，那麼我們做事情來擴大需求是沒有意義的。因此，我們花時間在這裡做的事情是，管理團隊正試圖弄清楚我們如何更快地提高產量並明顯保持良好的質量並不斷改進產品。而且，這就是我們希望明年緩解很多生產限制的地方。

That's great, and as a quick follow-up, maybe, given some of the announcement that you made intra-quarter and that you alluded to in your shareholders letter. What does your feel on the current assembly-line capacity, as it stands today -- look like today, versus maybe how you felt 3 months ago? Thanks.

這很好，作為一個快速的跟進，也許，考慮到你在季度內發布的一些公告，以及你在股東信中提到的一些公告。您對目前的裝配線產能有何看法，就像今天一樣——看起來像今天，與您 3 個月前的感受相比如何？謝謝。

The main constraint on our production is really the cells, and I think I mentioned that before in talks, and I think I alluded to that on the prior earnings call. So we're addressing the cell supply constraints, and any constraints that are -- non-cell constraints that exist, but really the critical thing is the cell production constraint.

我們生產的主要限制實際上是電池，我想我之前在會談中提到過，我想我在之前的財報電話會議上也提到了這一點。因此，我們正在解決電池供應限制以及任何存在的非電池限制，但真正關鍵的是電池生產限制。

We announced a deal recently with Panasonic, which is for much increased volume, and that's -- when we think about the constraint on growth, that's the biggest item, and that gets most of our attention. And like I said, I think we will see some relief on that constraint next year.

我們最近宣布與松下達成一項協議，該協議將大幅增加銷量，這就是——當我們考慮到增長的限制時，這是最大的項目，這引起了我們的大部分關注。就像我說的那樣，我認為明年我們會看到這種限制有所緩解。

Very good, thank you for taking my question.

很好，謝謝你提出我的問題。

Craig Irwin, Wedbush Securities.

韋德布什證券公司的克雷格·歐文。

Elon, I wanted ask a more philosophical question of you. We're hearing from different sources that the cost of your Model S drive train is more or less in parity with some of the conventional ICE vehicles out there, some of the premium vehicles in the market. Now, with some visibility on battery costs coming down fairly significantly over the next few years, when you look at the Gen III vehicle. Would you still want to price that at a premium versus comparable vehicles, where you would basically be benefiting from the ROI that you offer the customer, basically less expensive gas in the tank, considering they're not using petroleum, they'll be using clean electricity? Or, would you consider pricing that more or less at parity, or possibly at a discount versus the conventional competition?

埃隆，我想問你一個更哲學的問題。我們從不同來源獲悉，您的 Model S 傳動系統的成本或多或少與一些傳統的 ICE 車輛、市場上的一些高級車輛相當。現在，當您查看第三代車輛時，電池成本在未來幾年內會顯著下降。與同類車輛相比，您是否仍想以溢價定價，您基本上將從您為客戶提供的投資回報率中受益，油箱中的汽油基本上更便宜，考慮到他們不使用石油，他們將使用清潔電力？或者，您是否會考慮或多或少地以平價定價，或者可能以與傳統競爭對手相比的折扣價定價？

Well, I think as far as we want to try to price the Gen III vehicle around the $35,000 price point, and when you consider the savings from gasoline, depending on what you consider gasoline to be up that point, it's effectively like buying a gasoline car in the US for maybe $28,000, or a gasoline car in Europe for maybe $22,000. So, that makes it pretty competitive.

好吧，我認為就我們想嘗試將 Gen III 車輛定價在 35,000 美元左右的價格點而言，當您考慮從汽油中節省的費用時，取決於您認為汽油的價格，這實際上就像購買汽油美國的汽車可能要 28,000 美元，或者歐洲的汽油車可能要 22,000 美元。因此，這使得它非常具有競爭力。

Over time we're going to get better and better at lease offerings with lower interest rates and just better access to capital with a track record and more visibility into residual values. I think our residual value is going to be very good but, therefore, to get the lowest cost of capital you have to prove that. I think long-term just like with SolarCity, I see leasing being overwhelmingly the path to go for electric cars. Because it just brings the cost of transportation, it makes it immediate, because you have the lease and you look at the amount you're paying for the month, plus the amount you pay for electricity, versus your gasoline car lease plus gasoline costs -- and I think gasoline cars also really inherently require more maintenance, so there is that as well.

隨著時間的推移，我們將越來越擅長以更低的利率提供租賃服務，並通過跟踪記錄和對剩餘價值的更多可見性更好地獲得資本。我認為我們的剩餘價值會非常好，但因此，要獲得最低的資本成本，你必須證明這一點。我認為從長遠來看，就像 SolarCity 一樣，我認為租賃絕對是電動汽車的必經之路。因為它只是帶來了運輸成本，所以它立竿見影，因為你有租約，你看看你當月支付的金額，加上你支付的電費，與你的汽油車租賃加上汽油成本 - - 我認為汽油車也確實需要更多的維護，所以也有。

And with a lease you don't have to worry about like capturing that savings over a certain period of time or worry about the battery life or anything like that, you experience those things immediately. Long term, I see leasing as being the main way that people buy our car. And, then it's going to -- I think it's going to seem like a very compelling value proposition.

有了租約，您就不必擔心在一段時間內節省下來的錢或擔心電池壽命或類似的事情，您會立即體驗到這些事情。從長遠來看，我認為租賃是人們購買我們汽車的主要方式。然後它會 - 我認為這將是一個非常引人注目的價值主張。

Great. And then the second question I wanted to ask what about the priorities for R&D investment in 2014, and I guess over the intermediate term. Can you discuss the breadth of projects that you would be looking to fund, and whether or not this is an acceleration from your prior plans, or if this is consistent with what you have been thinking previously?

偉大的。然後是第二個問題，我想問一下 2014 年研發投資的重點是什麼，我猜是中期。您能否討論一下您希望資助的項目的廣度，以及這是否是您之前計劃的加速，或者這是否與您之前的想法一致？

I think it's more or less consistent. The thing that we're looking to be doing in 2014 is expanding Model S deliveries worldwide, particularly into Asia, and more broadly into Europe. And as well as other parts of the world. So, it's international expansion and volume production expansion with Model S, and then development of the Model X, just refining all of that, getting tooling in place and building out a really high-volume production line, next generation production line for the S and X. Next year we'll also be doing the design work, the styling essentially of the third-generation vehicle.

我認為它或多或少是一致的。我們希望在 2014 年做的事情是在全球範圍內擴大 Model S 的交付量，尤其是在亞洲，以及更廣泛的歐洲。以及世界其他地區。因此，它是 Model S 的國際擴張和量產擴張，然後是 Model X 的開發，只是完善所有這些，安裝工具並建造一條真正的大批量生產線，下一代 S 生產線和X. 明年我們還將進行設計工作，主要是第三代汽車的造型。

Because we'll be done with the Model X styling, essentially the fine brush strokes in the next few months. So next year is going to be about really getting the design the third-generation car done, but then it's going to take us a while to build out the capacity for that third-generation vehicle and we're going to have to sort out cell and battery pack capacity, because we're -- ultimately we need, if we were to produce 500,000 vehicles a year from the former NUMMI plant, then we need cell capacity that's commensurate with that. Which is maybe bigger than all of the lithium ion production in the world today, or at least on par with it.

因為我們將完成 Model X 的造型，主要是在接下來的幾個月裡完成精細的筆觸。所以明年將是真正完成第三代汽車的設計，但是我們需要一段時間才能為第三代汽車建立容量，我們將不得不整理電池和電池組容量，因為我們最終需要，如果我們要從前 NUMMI 工廠每年生產 500,000 輛汽車，那麼我們需要與此相稱的電池容量。這可能比當今世界上所有的鋰離子產量都要大，或者至少與它相當。

Excellent, then, my last question if I could squeeze it in, the Panasonic agreement, 1.8 billion cells over 4 years, my back of the envelope math is if we assume 85-kilowatt hour Model S, probably one of the larger batteries, what you're going to produce over the next few years, something like 250,000 cars. There's obviously been a lot of press coverage of your discussions and qualifications of Samsung, so I'm going to guess there's incremental demand on top of that, that you anticipate to have? Can you shape that for us, how you potentially see the ramp, and how you would look for the stagger in these supply agreements to work?

太好了，我最後一個問題，如果我能把它擠進去，松下協議，4 年內 18 億個電池，我的信封數學是如果我們假設 85 千瓦時 Model S，可能是更大的電池之一，什麼您將在未來幾年內生產 250,000 輛汽車。顯然有很多媒體報導了你對三星的討論和資格，所以我猜想在此之上還有增量需求，你預計會有嗎？您能否為我們塑造它，您可能如何看待坡道，以及您將如何尋找這些供應協議中的交錯工作？

Well, certainly, I'd say people shouldn't look at the X number of cells over 4 years and assume that's the number of cars that we'll make. I think we'll make towards the back end of that, a lot more cars. And so there will need to be other agreements with a certain combination of Panasonic, maybe with others, but Panasonic is obviously our primary partner.

好吧，當然，我會說人們不應該在 4 年內看到 X 數量的電池並假設這就是我們將製造的汽車數量。我想我們會在最後階段製造更多的汽車。因此，需要與松下的某個組合達成其他協議，也許與其他協議，但松下顯然是我們的主要合作夥伴。

But when it comes to the high-volume third-generation vehicle, it's clear that there's going to need to be incremental production capacity created that doesn't exist in the world today. So we're in the process of figuring that out. There's going to need to be some giga factory built.

但是，當談到大批量第三代汽車時，很明顯需要創造當今世界上不存在的增量生產能力。所以我們正在解決這個問題。需要建造一些千兆工廠。

Fantastic. Thanks again for taking my questions.

極好的。再次感謝您提出我的問題。

Dan Galves, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的丹·加爾維斯。

I wanted to ask about the current level of demand. We've seen apparently the order to delivery time has expanded over the last couple of months, customer deposit account went up quite a bit in Q3, and you confirmed that you're seeing demand increases. Can you quantify that at all in terms of how many orders you took in Q3 versus Q2, or just any order of magnitude? Is the US demand continuing to increase, where is your upstand compared to where you were, let's say at the same point in the US launch process?

我想問一下目前的需求水平。在過去的幾個月中，我們顯然已經看到訂單到交貨時間有所延長，客戶存款賬戶在第三季度增加了很多，並且您確認您看到需求增加。您能否根據第三季度與第二季度的訂單數量來量化這一點，或者只是任何數量級？美國的需求是否繼續增加，與你之前相比，你的立場在哪裡，比方說在美國發射過程的同一時間點？

US demand -- or North American demand has continued to increase. We have actually had to stop North American demand in order to feed Europe. So we have had European customers that were waiting for a long time, so we had to constrain deliveries to North America in order to get people their cars. They have been waiting, in some cases, 2 or 3 years. So, I think we could sustain 20,000 cars a year in North America, and maybe more than that. But, it doesn't make sense for us to try to amplify demand, if we aren't able to deliver to that demand. That just makes people unhappy.

美國需求——或北美需求持續增加。為了養活歐洲，我們實際上不得不停止北美的需求。因此，我們的歐洲客戶等待了很長時間，因此我們不得不限制向北美的交付，以便讓人們獲得他們的汽車。在某些情況下，他們已經等待了 2 或 3 年。所以，我認為我們可以在北美每年維持 20,000 輛汽車，甚至更多。但是，如果我們無法滿足這種需求，我們試圖擴大需求是沒有意義的。那隻會讓人不開心。

Where we are in Europe is, we're still at the early-stage -- we're in Europe where we were in the US maybe in January or February of this year. So European demand, it's on the order of maybe 10,000 units a year, but again, it doesn't make sense for us to try to drive that demand higher, if we aren't able to meet it. We want to make sure that we're laying the groundwork for future demand increase, and I think we could get demand in Greater Europe to be similar to that of North America. It seems like that seems pretty achievable to me.

我們在歐洲的地方，我們仍處於早期階段 - 我們在歐洲，我們可能在今年 1 月或 2 月在美國。因此，歐洲的需求量大約為每年 10,000 台，但同樣，如果我們無法滿足需求，我們試圖將需求推高是沒有意義的。我們希望確保為未來的需求增長奠定基礎，我認為我們可以讓大歐洲的需求與北美相似。對我來說，這似乎是可以實現的。

Okay, great, and I just wanted ask about the production ramp. You said that cell capacity or cell flow is the biggest constraint right now, you seem to be addressing that. Where do you see production per week going over the next few quarters? And also, I would expect you to continue to deliver significantly less than you produce, as you continue to have more and more vehicles on ships at the end of the quarter versus the previous quarter. Is that correct?

好的，太好了，我只是想問一下生產坡道。你說細胞容量或細胞流量是目前最大的限制因素，你似乎正在解決這個問題。您認為接下來幾個季度每週的產量會在哪裡？而且，我預計您的交付量將繼續大大低於您的產量，因為與上一季度相比，您在本季度末繼續擁有越來越多的車輛。那是對的嗎？

Yes. As deliveries to Europe increase, we necessarily have more inventory in transit, and then as we start adding Asia in there, we've got more in transit. We'll probably have 60%-plus of our sales going outside the US to Europe and Asia and the rest of the world as well, and I think there's Gulf States, South Africa, South America and so forth, over time. So we can expect a similar majority of our inventory to be on the order -- trains, that kind of thing, over time.

是的。隨著對歐洲的交付增加，我們必然有更多的在途庫存，然後隨著我們開始在那裡增加亞洲，我們有更多的在途庫存。隨著時間的推移，我們可能有 60% 以上的銷售額來自美國以外的歐洲和亞洲以及世界其他地區，我認為還有海灣國家、南非、南美洲等。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們可以期待我們的大部分庫存都在訂單上——火車之類的東西。

And yes, in terms of that being a capital issue, I think that's probably not going to be a capital issue is we can get pretty low cost funding for inventory in transit to customers. Because there's no question, unlike a lot of other products, these cars are going to customers, like to people who have actually bought the car. It's not speculative as to whether they actually want the car. We are shipping them their car.

是的，就資本問題而言，我認為這可能不會是資本問題，因為我們可以獲得相當低的成本資金用於向客戶運送的庫存。因為毫無疑問，與許多其他產品不同，這些汽車將面向客戶，就像真正購買汽車的人一樣。他們是否真的想要這輛車並不是推測性的。我們正在運送他們的汽車。

Got it, and just one more quick one. We heard this morning that the City of Beijing announced that they would further constrain license plate issuances, but at the same time they would issue -- about 15% of the license plates they issue next year, 20,000 units is going to be reserved for EVs and PHEVs, and that percentage goes up to about 60,000 vehicles by 2017 reserved for EVs. Do you know if Tesla imported vehicles would qualify for that? And what are your next steps in terms of getting deliveries started in China?

明白了，再快一點。今早聽說北京市政府宣布進一步限制牌照發放，但同時會發放——明年發放的牌照中，15%左右，2萬輛預留給電動汽車和 PHEV，到 2017 年，這一比例將上升到約 60,000 輛，為 EV 預留。你知道特斯拉進口的汽車是否有資格獲得這個資格嗎？在中國開始交付方面，您的下一步是什麼？

Yes, I believe we would qualify. We certainly are an EV -- pure EV, so I suspect we would qualify. We have our Beijing store, which we've done a soft opening on and we'll start delivering cars in the first quarter, probably -- we're aiming for February, but it could be March, but we're aiming for February. We passed all of the China homologation requirements.

是的，我相信我們會有資格。我們當然是電動汽車——純電動汽車，所以我懷疑我們有資格。我們有我們的北京店，我們已經試營業了，我們可能會在第一季度開始交付汽車——我們的目標是 2 月，但可能是 3 月，但我們的目標是 2 月.我們通過了所有的中國認證要求。

That's right, yes. Homologation is behind us, which is great.

沒錯，是的。認證在我們身後，這很棒。

So we have all the potentially approvals from the Chinese regulatory authorities to ship the car, and but we expect to probably ship up -- put our first cars on a boat in January, and so they'll be arriving in February, if things go according to plan. We'll still be somewhat production constrained, doesn't make sense for us to expand the scope of our sales territories too fast if we're production constrained, because that just amplifies the set of problems we have to deal with. But we do want to get some cars to China in the first quarter, and lay the groundwork in terms of service centers, Superchargers, and so forth, for hopefully significant growth in the rest of year in China.

因此，我們已經獲得了中國監管機構的所有潛在批准來裝運這輛車，但我們預計可能會裝運——在一月份將我們的第一輛汽車裝上船，如果順利的話，它們將在二月份抵達根據計劃。我們仍然會在一定程度上受到生產限制，如果我們受到生產限制，我們過快地擴大銷售區域的範圍是沒有意義的，因為這只會放大我們必須處理的一系列問題。但我們確實希望在第一季度將一些汽車運往中國，並在服務中心、增壓器等方面奠定基礎，希望在今年餘下時間在中國實現顯著增長。

And despite the soft initial opening, we're seeing pretty good, initial demand in China for the market.

儘管開業初期表現不佳，但我們看到中國市場的初期需求非常好。

We're not really even trying, like where really, softness, when we say soft, we really mean soft. We're doing -- we're not doing -- it's word of mouth, maybe, not anything beyond that. Yes, but it seems like things are going to probably go pretty well there, I think.

我們甚至沒有真正嘗試過，就像真正的柔軟一樣，當我們說柔軟時，我們真的是指柔軟。我們正在做——我們沒有做——這是口耳相傳，也許，不是除此之外的任何東西。是的，但我認為那裡的事情似乎進展順利。

Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

非常感謝。欣賞它。

Andrea James, Dougherty & Company.

安德里亞詹姆斯，多爾蒂公司。

Thinking back to the cell supply issue again, and you have got this great track record of insourcing and building your own ERP system and the like, and I guess, can we assume you've at least looked at building your own battery cell plant? I just wonder what your thoughts were there?

再回想一下電池供應問題，您在內購和建立自己的 ERP 系統等方面有著出色的記錄，我想，我們可以假設您至少考慮過建立自己的電池工廠嗎？我只是想知道你的想法是什麼？

We're not quite ready to make a big announcement on the cell and battery giga factory, but we are exploring a lot of different options right now. If I were to guess, I think that we would do that, that soup to nuts giga factory, where raw materials coming in all the way to finished packs, with partners. That's probably my best guess and that factory would most likely be in North America, but we are investigating other options as well.

我們還沒有準備好就電池和電池千兆工廠發布重大公告，但我們現在正在探索許多不同的選擇。如果我猜的話，我想我們會那樣做，把湯送到堅果 giga 工廠，原材料一直到成品包裝，與合作夥伴一起。這可能是我最好的猜測，那家工廠很可能在北美，但我們也在研究其他選擇。

Wow, thanks for that. And where does that rank? I imagine if you work at building a more mass-market vehicle car, the cell issue would be probably one of multiple. Where does that rank? Is it in the middle of all the challenges you would look at or is it close to the top?

哇，謝謝。那排名在哪裡？我想如果你致力於製造一輛更大眾化的汽車，那麼電池問題可能是多個問題之一。這個排名在哪裡？它是在你會看到的所有挑戰的中間還是接近頂峰？

Cell production is the biggest single constraint, but there are certainly many others that we do want to look at that aren't too far behind it. But I think if you look at, say what's the critical path item, it's cell production. And I think we can ensure that everything else is no slower than the ramp in cell production.

細胞生產是最大的單一限制因素，但我們確實希望看到許多其他限制因素，但它們並沒有落後太多。但我認為，如果你看看，說什麼是關鍵路徑項目，它是細胞生產。而且我認為我們可以確保其他一切都不會比電池生產的增長慢。

Thank you. And then just one final, the raw material though, that seems -- is that correct assume that's not an issue, raw material supply?

謝謝你。然後只是最後一個，雖然原材料，但這似乎是正確的假設，這不是問題，原材料供應？

Raw materials are not an issue, that's correct. I wouldn't worry about, say, lithium supply. There's a lot of lithium out there. And, the main constituents really in the cell are, by weight, are actually nickel and cobalt, aluminum then lithium, lithium is maybe like 1% of the cell mass,1%-ish, maybe 2%.

原材料不是問題，這是正確的。我不會擔心鋰供應。那裡有很多鋰。而且，電池中真正的主要成分是，按重量計算，實際上是鎳和鈷，然後是鋁，然後是鋰，鋰可能佔電池質量的 1%，1% 左右，也可能是 2%。

Very exciting, thank you very much.

非常令人興奮，非常感謝。

Sorry, 2% of it's the pack mass -- or 1% of the pack mass, I should say. 2% of the cell mass.

抱歉，我應該說是包裝質量的 2% 或包裝質量的 1%。細胞質量的 2%。

Elaine Kwei, Jefferies.

伊萊恩·奎，傑富瑞。

Just going back to the new Panasonic supply agreement, real quick. Does this require a new factory or alliance on their part, or is a significant portion already covered by their existing capacity? In other words, how should we think about what needs to happen on their side, to meet the supply obligations?

回到新的松下供應協議，真的很快。這是否需要他們的新工廠或聯盟，或者他們現有的能力已經覆蓋了很大一部分？換句話說，我們應該如何考慮他們需要做些什麼來履行供應義務？

I think as far as next year is concerned, they've got it covered. We've been working closely with them, and we spent [a lot] time in the Panasonic factories and we -- pardon me? I think we've got -- we have high confidence that Panasonic can deliver on their commitment.

我認為就明年而言，他們已經解決了。我們一直與他們密切合作，我們在松下工廠度過了[很多]時間，我們——對不起？我認為我們已經 - 我們對鬆下能夠兌現他們的承諾充滿信心。

Okay, great. And then the shareholder letter mentioned that you accelerated development work on the X. Does that mean the launch may not be quite as late as 2014? And if you're starting Gen III design next year, are we still looking at that 2017 timeframe production as well?

好，太棒了。然後股東信中提到你加快了 X 的開發工作。這是否意味著發布可能不會晚到 2014 年？如果你明年開始第三代設計，我們是否還在關注 2017 年的時間框架生產？

I think for the X, we're aiming for, maybe a few units at the end of next year and volume production is -- into the high-volume production, is probably Q2 2015. High-volume meaning volumes comparable to the Model S at the time.

我認為對於 X，我們的目標是明年年底可能會有幾台，並且量產是 - 進入大批量生產，可能是 2015 年第二季度。大批量意味著與 Model S 相當的數量當時。

That's the normal ramp of production is we --

那是正常的生產量是我們——

Yes, exactly --

對，就是這樣 -

While maintaining a very high level of Model S production in the factories, so these are very large numbers at that point.

在工廠保持非常高水平的 Model S 生產的同時，這些數字在當時是非常大的。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

Okay, that's very helpful. And just lastly, in the letter you also mentioned that you'll be starting production to support a launch by Daimler in early 2014, can you remind us what vehicles you'll be supporting, and other any new ones that would be under consideration as well?

好的，這很有幫助。最後，您在信中還提到您將開始生產以支持戴姆勒在 2014 年初推出的產品，您能否提醒我們您將支持哪些車輛，以及其他任何正在考慮的新車輛出色地？

The main one is really the Mercedes B class, which is going to be the biggest electric vehicle program in Daimler history, and it's really going to be a great car. I think it will be the most compelling, affordable electric car on the market.

最主要的是梅賽德斯 B 級，這將是戴姆勒歷史上最大的電動汽車項目，它真的會是一輛很棒的汽車。我認為這將是市場上最引人注目、最實惠的電動汽車。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

There isn't anything beyond that.

除此之外沒有任何東西。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

And it's just, particularly when you look at the fact that we're we have these cell supply constraints, it doesn't make sense for us to be finding new ways to use cells. (laughter)

只是，特別是當你看到我們有這些電池供應限制的事實時，我們尋找使用電池的新方法是沒有意義的。 （笑聲）

Right. It makes a lot of sense. Thank you.

正確的。這很有道理。謝謝你。

Ben Kallo, Robert W. Baird.

本·卡洛，羅伯特·W·貝爾德。

Good quarter. As you think about what you've learned from logistics shipping to Europe, and then we think ahead to next year, is there risk around that? Or have you got that ironed out, as far as shipping to a different continent and delivering there?

好季度。當您考慮從物流運輸到歐洲的經驗時，我們會考慮到明年，這是否存在風險？或者您是否已經解決了這個問題，就運送到另一個大陸並在那裡交付？

I think we've mostly got it ironed out with Europe. There was initially a bit of challenges shipping because we shipped partially-built cars to our assembly facility in the Netherlands, and then they get put together there. We're actually ramping up our investment in our Tilburg plant in the Netherlands, adding more and more capabilities to that, and just making that whole process a lot more efficient.

我認為我們基本上已經與歐洲解決了。最初運輸遇到一些挑戰，因為我們將部分製造的汽車運送到我們在荷蘭的裝配廠，然後在那裡組裝。實際上，我們正在加大對荷蘭蒂爾堡工廠的投資，為其增加越來越多的能力，並使整個過程更加高效。

In addition to the myriad of challenges delivering to a dozen different countries, there are also the challenges with the electrical system. So just the nature of the electrical grid is that almost every country has their nuances, which we experience as a consumer when you got this plethora of plugs, that we experienced the same sort of thing with electric cars. Norway is our highest sales per capita, but one of the challenges there is it has a plug-in grid, so it's got a somewhat unique electrical system, so it took a fair bit of effort to make sure we were able to charge properly in Norway, and --

除了向十幾個不同國家/地區帶來的無數挑戰外，電氣系統也面臨著挑戰。因此，電網的本質是幾乎每個國家都有其細微差別，當您擁有如此多的插頭時，我們作為消費者所體驗到的，我們在電動汽車上也經歷過同樣的事情。挪威是我們人均銷售額最高的國家，但其中一個挑戰是它有一個插入式電網，所以它有一個有點獨特的電力系統，所以我們需要付出相當多的努力才能確保我們能夠正常充電挪威，以及——

Overall we had delivered zero cars in Europe in Q2, and in Q3, we delivered over 1,000 cars and the first of the cars got delivered in early August. So in just a matter of 2 months, we could deliver over 1,000 cars which was a significant achievement for the Company despite the logistics that Elon mentioned in several countries as well as different electrical infrastructure.

總體而言，我們在第二季度在歐洲交付了零輛汽車，在第三季度，我們交付了 1,000 多輛汽車，其中第一輛汽車於 8 月初交付。因此，在短短 2 個月內，我們可以交付 1,000 多輛汽車，這對公司來說是一項重大成就，儘管 Elon 提到了幾個國家的物流以及不同的電氣基礎設施。

I agree. I've heard from some customers in different parts of Europe that have waited longer for deliveries, and the rumor out there is that you're shipping to Holland ahead of a tax reset. How do you balance situations like that, and meeting customer satisfaction?

我同意。我從歐洲不同地區的一些客戶那裡聽說，他們等待交貨的時間更長，並且有傳言說您要在稅收重置之前運送到荷蘭。您如何平衡這種情況並滿足客戶滿意度？

It is tricky. There was in some countries, there are some tax credits that were due to expire, or that we thought might expire because they had not yet been renewed, as was the case in the Netherlands. So obviously, if there's a danger of some of the tax credit not being renewed, than I think the right thing to do is to accelerate deliveries to that country, which is what we did with the Netherlands.

這很棘手。在一些國家，有一些稅收抵免即將到期，或者我們認為可能會到期，因為它們尚未更新，就像荷蘭的情況一樣。所以很明顯，如果存在某些稅收抵免不被更新的危險，我認為正確的做法是加快向該國的交付，這就是我們對荷蘭所做的。

Now that they went ahead and extended the tax credit, so it turned out to be a false alarm. But in balancing what's the right thing to do, it seemed like the right thing to do was to try and accelerate deliveries to the Netherlands, to make sure that people could take advantage of the tax credit. Now we're more in a normal delivery mode.

現在他們繼續擴大稅收抵免，結果證明是虛驚一場。但在平衡正確的做法時，似乎正確的做法是嘗試加快向荷蘭的交付，以確保人們可以利用稅收抵免。現在我們更多的是處於正常的交付模式。

Great. My final question is, as you think about the battery capacity for Gen III, what timeframe, if we're building in North America, a factory for cells, would you need? And how difficult of a permitting process is that? And I'll jump back in queue and thanks very much.

偉大的。我的最後一個問題是，當您考慮第三代電池容量時，如果我們在北美建造電池工廠，您需要什麼時間框架？許可程序有多困難？我會回到隊列中，非常感謝。

Like I said this is the right time to talk in detail about our plans for a giga factory. Except to say that obviously we're acknowledging the fact that one needs to be built, and we're looking at a variety of different locations. I don't think permitting is going to be the driver here, this is going to be a very green factory, it's going to be with a lot of solar power and it's going to have essentially zero emissions, no toxic elements are going to come out of this factory, and we would be building recycling capability right into the factory so old packs of come in one side and get reprocessed into new packs.

就像我說的，現在是詳細討論我們的千兆工廠計劃的合適時機。除了要說的是，顯然我們承認需要建造一個這一事實，並且我們正在研究各種不同的位置。我不認為許可證會成為這裡的驅動力，這將是一個非常綠色的工廠，它將擁有大量的太陽能，並且基本上是零排放，不會出現有毒元素離開這家工廠，我們將在工廠內建立回收能力，以便舊包裝進入一側並重新加工成新包裝。

So the way to think about this is, a factory is the machine that builds the machine, and that itself has a version, just as have a version of a product, it's like a version of a factory. So we're trying to figure out what's the right way to do version one of this giga factory, and we want to be thoughtful about it, and this is going to be a really giant, giant facility. Like I say, we're talking about something that's comparable to all lithium ion production in the world. In one factory. Big.

所以思考這個問題的方式是，工廠是製造機器的機器，它本身有一個版本，就像產品的一個版本一樣，它就像一個工廠的版本。因此，我們正試圖找出建造這個千兆工廠的第一版的正確方法，我們希望對此深思熟慮，這將是一個非常巨大的設施。就像我說的，我們談論的是與世界上所有鋰離子生產相媲美的東西。在一個工廠。大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

亞當喬納斯，摩根士丹利。

I don't know if this is a question for Elon or for Deepak, but I was curious if the third quarter, or even your outlook for the fourth quarter, benefits from any true-ups from suppliers who might have been gouging you on production that they didn't expect you to do, and you're able to do. And we were hearing there could be some potential for true-ups. Curious if you could comment on that?

我不知道這是 Elon 還是 Deepak 的問題，但我很好奇第三季度，甚至你對第四季度的展望，是否受益於供應商的任何真實情況，這些供應商可能會在生產上欺騙你他們沒想到你會這樣做，而你能夠做到。而且我們聽說可能會有一些可能的修正。好奇你能否對此發表評論？

No, Adam, no such luck. There are no such one-time benefits from suppliers, this is a clean quarter

不，亞當，沒有這樣的運氣。供應商沒有這樣的一次性利益，這是一個乾淨的季度

Okay, that's good. And then could you comment on the wait time for a car order today in Europe on average? I know it can vary dramatically by country, but maybe could give some examples of an order place tomorrow morning, for example, how long someone can expect to wait for a car? And also for China -- Mainland.

嗯，很好。然後你能評論一下今天歐洲汽車訂單的平均等待時間嗎？我知道它可能因國家/地區而異，但也許可以舉一些明天早上下訂單的例子，例如，有人可以等多久？也適用於中國——大陸。

Right. Well bearing in mind that from the point which a car is manufactured a California, it's about 6 weeks-ish, maybe 7 weeks before it actually gets in the hands of the customer, because we make the sub-assembled car kit. That then gets transported to the Netherlands, gets assembled into a car, goes through final checkout, and then will be scheduled for delivery to a customer, so all that takes 6 or 7 weeks.

正確的。請記住，從汽車在加利福尼亞製造的那一刻起，大約需要 6 週左右，可能需要 7 週才能真正到達客戶手中，因為我們製造了分裝汽車套件。然後將其運送到荷蘭，組裝成汽車，通過最終結賬，然後安排交付給客戶，因此所有這些都需要 6 或 7 週。

And then there is a bit of a backlog, so I think it's something on the order of 3 to 4 months. You order a car now you get one in 3 or 4 months, because there's are couple months of lead time on top of that.

然後有一點積壓，所以我認為大約需要 3 到 4 個月。你現在訂購一輛車，你會在 3 或 4 個月內得到一輛，因為除此之外還有幾個月的交貨時間。

And then for China and Brazil, maybe you'd add then just your -- I would presume maybe to add your live launch for the Beijing dealer, for example. Like you add a couple months on top of the or is that --? For China?

然後對於中國和巴西，也許您會添加您的 - 例如，我想可能會添加您為北京經銷商進行的現場發布。就像你在上面加上幾個月或者是——？為中國？

So if you order a car for delivery in China right now, you probably get it in mid to late Q2.

因此，如果您現在訂購在中國交付的汽車，您可能會在第二季度中下旬收到它。

Okay.

好的。

And I'd certainly recommend anyone who -- in China, who does want to order the car, to place their order fairly soon, because it looks like that wait time may be accelerating. So, in other words, the longer you wait, the longer you will have to wait. At least, that's what it looks like.

我當然會建議任何在中國想要訂購汽車的人盡快下訂單，因為看起來等待時間可能會加快。因此，換句話說，您等待的時間越長，您必須等待的時間就越長。至少，它看起來是這樣的。

Got it, and Elon, just finally, any update won when you are going to take that cross-country road trip with your family. Everyone is curious to see that goes, or if you've already done it, and we just didn't see the production of it yet? Thanks.

明白了，埃隆，最後，當你打算和家人一起進行越野公路旅行時，任何更新都贏了。每個人都很好奇看到它發生了，或者如果你已經完成了，我們只是還沒有看到它的生產？謝謝。

No, you would have seen it. But I -- in looking at kids schedules and everything, it looks like we might do that trip during spring break instead of over the Christmas holidays, because well it's going to be pretty snowy and yes --

不，你會看到的。但是我 - 在查看孩子們的日程安排和所有事情時，看起來我們可能會在春假而不是聖誕節假期進行那次旅行，因為它會下雪，是的 -

You don't want to put your kids in the car with that?

你不想把你的孩子放在車裡嗎？

Yes. Just going through the country, when it's the shortest day of the year, and it's mostly night time is probably not the best way to go. I want to make sure they enjoy the trip, so I think we'll probably end up doing it in late March.

是的。只是穿越這個國家，當它是一年中白天最短的時候，而且大部分時間都是晚上，這可能不是最好的方式。我想確保他們喜歡這次旅行，所以我想我們可能會在三月下旬結束。

Well the car is built like a tank, it seemed to go through those Mexican concrete walls pretty well. So, pretty strong build quality. Thanks a lot, everyone.

好吧，這輛車像坦克一樣建造，它似乎很好地穿過了那些墨西哥混凝土牆。所以，相當強大的構建質量。非常感謝大家。

You're welcome. Actually, the post around that, it's even crazier than that. The car actually sheared off something like 17 feet of curb wall, then went through a concrete wall -- 6 foot concrete wall, then smashed into a tree. It was like holy crow. (laughter)

別客氣。實際上，圍繞那個的帖子，它甚至比那個更瘋狂。這輛車實際上剪掉了大約 17 英尺的路緣牆，然後穿過了一堵混凝土牆——6 英尺的混凝土牆，然後撞到了一棵樹上。這就像神聖的烏鴉。 （笑聲）

John Lovallo, Bank of America.

美國銀行的約翰·洛瓦洛。

The first question would be, it looks like in the second quarter North American volumes rose by about 250 units sequentially. The third quarter looks like they declined by 650 units sequentially, and I know you have talked about the supply constraints. But I guess the question is, do you think that we could be getting a point where maybe the early adopters have been -- their orders have been filled and maybe demand is leveling?

第一個問題是，第二季度北美銷量環比增長了約 250 輛。第三季度看起來他們連續下降了 650 台，我知道你已經談到了供應限制。但我想問題是，你認為我們可能會達到早期採用者可能已經達到的程度——他們的訂單已經完成，也許需求正在趨於平穩？

No, I think there's a huge amount of untapped demand in North America.

不，我認為北美有大量未開發的需求。

And we saw a pretty solid increase in reservations in Q3, in North America, compared to Q2. The fact that we delivered less cars is not an indication of demand, it's just a matter of how we mixed the production between Europe and North America, so we don't want to create any misimpression of our production happened versus demand.

與第二季度相比，我們看到北美第三季度的預訂量大幅增長。我們交付的汽車減少這一事實並不表明需求，這只是我們如何在歐洲和北美之間混合生產的問題，因此我們不想對我們的生產與需求產生任何誤解。

Yes, we just had a finite numbers of cars we produced, and at some point, we had to start delivering cars to Europe so --.

是的，我們生產的汽車數量有限，在某個時候，我們不得不開始向歐洲運送汽車，所以——。

That's helpful, thank you. And then looking at free cash flow, it looks like you generated about $26 million in the quarter, which is encouraging. Now you're forecasting about flat free cash flow in the fourth quarter, so that looks like -- looks like you'll burn through about $50 million this year, and the expectation would be that CapEx is going to continue to ramp, given the capital intensity of this business. So how should we think about free cash flow, maybe heading into next year and maybe even further out? Just high level.

這很有幫助，謝謝。然後看看自由現金流，看起來你在本季度產生了大約 2600 萬美元，這是令人鼓舞的。現在你預測第四季度的自由現金流持平，所以看起來你今年會燒掉大約 5000 萬美元，並且預期資本支出將繼續增加，因為該業務的資本密集度。那麼我們應該如何考慮自由現金流，也許進入明年甚至更遠？只是高水平。

Do you want to say anything?

你想說什麼嗎？

We prefer to give the 2014 guidance in a bit more detail at the next call, but certainly our goal is to generate a significant amount of cash from our operations, and offset as much, if not all, of our capital expenditures as we go forward. It also depends to some extent on when we accelerate development of new products, and how much we continue to grow globally in 2014. We have big ambitions of that. So I think it's probably best that we hold onto give you a bit more granular sense of this in the next quarter.

我們希望在下次電話會議上更詳細地提供 2014 年指導，但我們的目標當然是從我們的運營中產生大量現金，並在我們前進的過程中抵消盡可能多（如果不是全部）的資本支出.這在一定程度上還取決於我們何時加速新產品的開發，以及我們在 2014 年繼續在全球範圍內增長多少。我們對此抱有很大的雄心。因此，我認為最好在下一季度讓您對此有更詳細的了解。

That's fair. Sorry, go ahead, Elon.

這還算公平。對不起，請繼續，埃隆。

The general course we're trying to take is to make steady, modest improvement in our available cash, while growing the business at a really rapid percentage rate, relative to the rest of the industry. These are super big percentage growth rates, compared to what's normal in the car business. So if we can actually generate a little bit of positive cash flow while having an ongoing very high percentage growth rate, that seems like a pretty good outcome.

我們試圖採取的一般做法是穩定、適度地改善我們的可用現金，同時相對於行業其他部門以非常快的百分比速度發展業務。與汽車行業的正常情況相比，這些百分比增長率非常高。因此，如果我們實際上能夠在保持非常高的百分比增長率的同時真正產生一點正現金流，那似乎是一個相當不錯的結果。

That's how we look at Q3 results, considering how much we have invested globally in our infrastructure and our growth. And we still generated positive cash flow, it's a great outcome for the quarter.

考慮到我們在全球基礎設施和增長方面的投資，這就是我們看待第三季度業績的方式。而且我們仍然產生了正現金流，這對本季度來說是一個很好的結果。

Yes, exactly. It's like Supercharge alone, we're aiming to have essentially all of North America covered in detail by the end of next year. So not - in some cases it will be some frequently traveled routes will be potentially double or triple covered with Superchargers. And we expect to be able to travel anywhere in Europe or at least Western Europe and many parts of Eastern Europe by the end of next year. So, despite all that and growing production volume, and developing the Model X. Despite all that, I think we can still be positive cash flow.

對，就是這樣。就像單獨的 Supercharge 一樣，我們的目標是在明年年底之前詳細覆蓋整個北美。所以不是——在某些情況下，一些經常旅行的路線可能會被增壓器覆蓋兩倍或三倍。我們預計到明年年底能夠在歐洲任何地方旅行，或者至少在西歐和東歐的許多地方旅行。因此，儘管如此，產量不斷增長，Model X 也在不斷發展。儘管如此，我認為我們仍然可以實現正現金流。

That's very helpful. If I could just sneak one more in, can you just tell us what the effect of the GHG and CAFE credits were in the quarter? The effect on gross margin?

這很有幫助。如果我可以再偷偷摸摸，你能告訴我們GHG和CAFE信用在本季度的影響嗎？對毛利率的影響？

It was really small, that effect continues to decline every quarter, John. And it was slightly over 1%.

真的很小，這種影響每個季度都在持續下降，約翰。並且略高於 1%。

1%? Okay, thanks.

1%？好的謝謝。

Colin Rusch, Northland Capital.

科林·魯施，北國資本。

Can you talk about the improvement in Takt time and elimination of overtime in the quarter for your production run rate?

您能否談談您的生產運行率在本季度節拍時間的改進和加班的消除？

Yes, I think overall our production efficiency is continuing to reduce, so as a result, we are use less over time, and our cost per car per unit continues to decrease.

是的，我認為總體而言，我們的生產效率在持續降低，因此隨著時間的推移，我們的使用量減少了，每輛汽車的成本也在持續下降。

Yes, I think there's room to improve on our labor costs per car, and we have a number of initiatives underway to reduce labor costs per car, which we need to do otherwise we simply can't fit enough people at the factory. So it's not as though -- we'll continue to grow our headcount but our headcount per car should get much better in the ensuing quarters.

是的，我認為我們的每輛車的勞動力成本還有改進的空間，我們正在採取一些舉措來降低每輛車的勞動力成本，我們需要這樣做，否則我們根本無法在工廠容納足夠的人。所以這並不是——我們將繼續增加我們的員工人數，但我們每輛車的員工人數在接下來的幾個季度應該會變得更好。

Okay. And then --

好的。接著 -

Yes --

是的 -

Go ahead, I can follow-up off-line with a couple other things. And then on the evolution of the relationships with your battery suppliers, can you talk about how much they are contributing to the IP, and evolution of the cell designs, and new materials integration? Are you having to contribute more there then you would have thought, when you started working with these folks a few years ago?

去吧，我可以離線跟進一些其他的事情。然後關於與您的電池供應商關係的演變，您能否談談他們對 IP、電池設計的演變和新材料集成的貢獻有多大？當你幾年前開始與這些人一起工作時，你是否必須在那裡做出比你想像的更多的貢獻？

Well, we're contributing a fair bit to the optimization of the cell for automotive purposes. In a lot of ways, the cell still looks the same from the outside because it's the same -- roughly the same 18 millimeter diameter by 65 millimeters long cell. Although there technically are tiny changes like 18.3 or 18.4 millimeters, that type of thing. But the internals of the cell are evolving quite a lot, and we're trying to be as helpful as we can with working with that partner, really our primary partner at Panasonic on that.

好吧，我們為汽車電池的優化做出了相當大的貢獻。在很多方面，電池從外部看起來仍然是一樣的，因為它是相同的——大致相同的 18 毫米直徑 x 65 毫米長的電池。儘管從技術上講有微小的變化，比如 18.3 或 18.4 毫米，那種東西。但是電池的內部結構發生了很大變化，我們正努力與該合作夥伴合作，盡我們所能提供幫助，這實際上是我們在松下的主要合作夥伴。

So, I think Panasonic is doing really a great job and has really exciting things in the pipeline for future cell chemistry improvements. And we want to try to bring those to fruition with them as soon as possible.

因此，我認為松下做得非常出色，並且正在為未來的電池化學改進做一些令人興奮的事情。我們希望盡快與他們一起實現這些目標。

And just one final one. Can you just comment on the cycle time for some of those improvements? Are we talking about things that have been in the works for couple of years just making into cars now, or can you turn things around in 6 or 12 months?

只有最後一個。您能否就其中一些改進的周期時間發表評論？我們是在談論幾年來一直在生產的東西現在只是製造汽車，還是你能在 6 個月或 12 個月內扭轉局面？

Well our general goal is to make a meaningful step change improvements in the pack technology, cell and pack technology, every -- roughly 4 years. So, we started production 1.5 years ago. And so one would expect that in roughly 2 years there'd be a significant change. There will be small changes before then, but probably a more significant step change in the 2 to 3 year timeframe.

我們的總體目標是每隔大約 4 年對電池組技術、電池和電池組技術進行一次有意義的改進。所以，我們在 1.5 年前開始生產。因此，人們預計在大約 2 年內會發生重大變化。在那之前會有一些小的變化，但在 2 到 3 年的時間範圍內可能會有更顯著的變化。

Okay, thanks so much.

好的，非常感謝。

Okay I think the key thing is to have that step change in place for the third-generation vehicle. Of course, that would have -- that would have benefits to the Model S, the premium line of cars as well.

好的，我認為關鍵是要為第三代汽車做出這樣的改變。當然，這將對 Model S 以及高端汽車系列有好處。

All right, Jim, we probably have time for just one more question. We are going to go a little bit over here, but let's try to just fit one more in, please.

好吧，吉姆，我們可能還有時間再問一個問題。我們將在這裡稍微走一走，但讓我們試著再裝一個，拜託。

Patrick Archambault, Goldman Sachs.

帕特里克·阿爾尚博，高盛。

Wanted to actually follow up on that last question. If I remember well, like part of the rationale for using 18650s was to take advantage of the scale that was already there. When you're talking about building a new factory on your own, you're bringing your own scale to the table, right? And probably opens up a lot of options, so as we think about that battery technology for the Gen III, might you actually rotate away from that 18650 architecture into something that's maybe a bit more compact and simple? That would be my first question.

想要真正跟進最後一個問題。如果我沒記錯的話，就像使用 18650 的部分理由是利用已經存在的規模。當您談論自己建立新工廠時，您是在將自己的規模帶到桌面上，對嗎？並且可能開闢了很多選擇，所以當我們考慮第三代電池技術時，你是否真的可以從 18650 架構轉向可能更緊湊和簡單的東西？那將是我的第一個問題。

I think you're asking -- it would be odd if an 18 millimeter diameter and 65 millimeter length just happened to be a perfect size for a cell. That said, if it's a flat optimization, there's no reason to go away from that form factor. So we're still investigating that, we're not 100% one way or the other. I would imagine though, that we don't go particularly far away from that size, we'll either stick to that size, or we'll have something that's not hugely bigger. It's somewhat of a misconception that a bigger cell is cheaper. It's not cheaper, in our experience, we have yet to see a situation where large format automotive cells are actually cheaper on a cost per kilowatt hour basis.

我想你在問——如果 18 毫米直徑和 65 毫米長度恰好是電池的完美尺寸，那就太奇怪了。也就是說，如果它是一個平面優化，那麼沒有理由放棄這種形式因素。所以我們仍在調查這一點，我們不是 100% 的。不過我可以想像，我們不會離那個尺寸特別遠，我們要么堅持那個尺寸，要么我們會有一些不是很大的東西。認為更大的電池更便宜是一種誤解。它並不便宜，根據我們的經驗，我們還沒有看到大尺寸汽車電池實際上每千瓦時成本更便宜的情況。

Got you, okay. If I could one more on how you're going to configure your manufacturing going into the end of this year? Does your current line have flexibility, or will it have flexibility to build Model Ss and Xs, going through the same line, or are you going to have to build a parallel one? Ultimately I think the original expectations you put out was 40 to 50 global units of demand for S, clearly that would probably tax at some point the set-up you have now. But just wondering when that additional capacity would go in and how it might be configured?

明白了，好吧。如果我能再談談你將如何配置你的生產到今年年底？您當前的生產線是否具有靈活性，或者它是否具有構建 Model S 和 Xs 的靈活性，通過同一條生產線，還是您將不得不建造一條平行的生產線？最終，我認為您最初提出的預期是全球對 S 的需求為 40 到 50 個單位，顯然這可能會在某個時候對您現在的設置徵稅。但只是想知道什麼時候會增加額外的容量以及如何配置它？

We have a game plan on that front, because obviously if we're doing 40 or 50 in Model S volume, if Model X turns out to have a comparable demand, and we're on the order of 100,000 units, then clearly our current production line is not going to do the trick, so we're going to need something else.

我們在這方面有一個遊戲計劃，因為很明顯，如果我們在 Model S 的數量上生產 40 或 50 個，如果 Model X 的需求量相當，並且我們的數量在 100,000 輛左右，那麼顯然我們目前的生產線不能解決問題，所以我們需要別的東西。

We're looking out reconfiguring part of the factory, maybe using one of the moving production lines that's still there from the NUMMI days. But I feel pretty confident, it's not going to be -- the production of vehicles is not going to be a constraint. That's not the limiting factor, nor do I think we've got some huge capital draining thing that's going to need to happen. I think we've got a handle on how to get there.

我們正在尋找重新配置工廠的一部分，可能會使用從 NUMMI 時代仍然存在的移動生產線之一。但我很有信心，它不會——汽車的生產不會成為一個限制因素。這不是限制因素，我也不認為我們需要發生一些巨大的資本流失事件。我想我們已經掌握瞭如何到達那裡的方法。

Okay, terrific. Well, thanks for taking my questions.

好的，棒極了。嗯，謝謝你提出我的問題。

All right thank you very much everyone for joining us this afternoon. We look forward to seeing many of you tomorrow at RW Baird's Industrial Conference in Chicago, or next week at Barclays Auto Conference in New York City. Have a great day.

好的，非常感謝大家今天下午加入我們。我們期待明天在芝加哥舉行的 RW Baird 工業會議或下週在紐約市舉行的巴克萊汽車會議上見到你們中的許多人。祝你有美好的一天。

Okay, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude your conference. You may now disconnect and have a great day.

好的，女士們，先生們。這確實結束了您的會議。您現在可以斷開連接並度過美好的一天。