特斯拉 (TSLA) 2013 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Motors second quarter 2013 financial earnings results call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. I would like to turn the call over to your host, Jeff Evanson. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，大家好！歡迎參加特斯拉汽車2013年第二季財報電話會議。目前，所有與會者都處於聆聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時將進行相關說明。我想將電話會議交給主持人傑夫·埃文森。請開始。

Thank you, Patrick, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter financial results Q&A webcast and conference call. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman and CEO, and Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝帕特里克，大家下午好。歡迎參加我們第二季財報問答網路直播和電話會議。今天，特斯拉董事長兼執行長馬斯克和財務長迪帕克·阿胡賈也一同出席了會議。

We announced our financial results for the second quarter shortly after the close of trading today. The shareholder letter, financial results and webcast of this Q&A session are all available at our Investor Relations website, at IR.TeslaMotors.com. Today's webcast is for your questions, and I thank you for primarily using the webcast. That helps save us some money, so thank you. We're going to conduct this Q&A session live.

我們在今天收盤後不久公佈了第二季的財務表現。股東信、財務表現以及本問答環節的網路直播均可在我們的投資者關係網站 IR.TeslaMotors.com 上取得。現今的網路直播主要用於解答您的疑問，感謝您主要使用網路直播。這能幫我們節省一些費用，謝謝。我們將以現場直播的方式進行本次問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

And we do plan to end this call in 45 minutes, as always.

像往常一樣，我們計劃在 45 分鐘內結束本次通話。

Now during the course of this discussion, we may talk about our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are predictions based on management's current expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent 10-Q filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views as of today and should not be relied upon after today. We also disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

在本次討論過程中，我們可能會談論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理階層目前預期的預測。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-Q報告中提及的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。此類前瞻性陳述代表我們截至今日的觀點，今日之後不應作為依據。我們亦不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

And so now, Patrick, could we please have the first question.

那麼派崔克，現在我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Our first question comes from Patrick Archambault with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

第一個問題來自高盛的Patrick Archambault。您的電話已接通。

Thank you very much, guys. Congratulations on a good quarter. You know, I think obviously the execution looked great. But my one question would be, can you help us walk a little bit from, I think, your margin is adjusted 10%, ex-ZEV credits. It sounds like you still have some levers to pull to get to the 25%. Can you just go through those with us?

非常感謝大家。恭喜你們取得了一個好季度的業績。你們知道，我認為執行力顯然很棒。但我有一個問題，你們能否幫助我們稍微降低一點利潤率，我想你們的利潤率是調整後的10%，不包括零排放汽車積分。聽起來你們還需要一些努力才能達到25%的目標。能和我們詳細講一下嗎？

I think, Patrick -- Deepak here -- our automotive gross margin, excluding ZEV credits, is closer to 13%, and maybe we can walk you through that later on to clarify. I know this is a confusing quarter with significant accounting numbers here, so we'll just help you with that. But we see clearly a path that gets us to 25%, excluding ZEV credits, given the actions that are underway and have been underway for a while, and these relate to on the cost reduction aspects, with our part cost reduction road map, the efficiencies we have in our manufacturing and supply chain that are happening over the second half, as well as a combination of the new options that we have put in the marketplace and the margin enhancement we get from there. I'm sure Elon has more to add.

派崔克，我是迪帕克，我認為我們的汽車毛利率（不包括零排放汽車積分）接近13%，也許我們稍後可以向您詳細解釋一下。我知道這個季度有很多重要的會計數字，比較容易讓人困惑，所以我們只能幫您解釋一下。但考慮到我們正在採取的以及已經實施了一段時間的措施，我們清楚地看到了一條通往25%（不包括零排放汽車積分）的路徑。這些措施與成本削減方面有關，包括我們制定的零件成本削減路線圖、我們下半年在製造和供應鏈方面取得的效率提升，以及我們投放市場的新方案和由此帶來的利潤率提升。我相信伊隆還有更多要補充的。

Right. Just in summary, we're about 12 points away from getting to the 25% gross margin target, without ZEV credits. And if you look at, say, Q1 to Q2, we increased 8 points. So obviously on average, between Q3 and Q4, we need to do 6 points per quarter. So we need -- we don't need to make quite as big an improvement as we did Q1 to Q2, but obviously, significant hill to climb and huge amount of work. But we feel pretty confident about the 25% number. And it's important to note that we have visibility into these numbers, within reason, ahead of time. So the things that affect the gross margin, in order for them to affect the fourth quarter, really need to be in place or substantially in place about a month before the fourth quarter. Otherwise, the parts that go into the car will not contain the cost savings that are necessary. So essentially, things need to be in place next month. And so that's not very far away. So that's why we feel -- felt confident enough to reaffirm the 25% gross margin guidance, absent ZEV credits, for the fourth quarter. -- a force majeur event or something, some really big unexpected thing, but as long as there's nothing really unusual that happens, then that should beat that target.

對。總結一下，即使不計入零排放汽車積分，我們距離達到25%的毛利率目標還有大約12個百分點。如果你看一下，比如說，第一季到第二季度，我們增加了8個百分點。所以，顯然，在第三季到第四季之間，我們平均每季需要增加6個百分點。所以我們不需要像第一季到第二季那樣大幅提升，但顯然，這需要克服巨大的困難，也需要做大量的工作。但我們對25%的目標很有信心。值得注意的是，我們可以在合理的範圍內提前預知這些數據。因此，那些影響毛利率的因素，為了在第四季度發揮作用，真的需要在第四季度前一個月左右到位或基本到位。否則，用於汽車的零件將無法實現必要的成本節約。所以，基本上，所有措施都需要在下個月到位。所以，距離目標並不遙遠。所以這就是為什麼我們感到——有足夠的信心重申第四季度 25% 的毛利率指導（沒有 ZEV 積分）。 ——不可抗力事件或某些事情，一些真正意想不到的重大事件，但只要沒有發生真正不尋常的事情，那麼就應該超過這個目標。

Okay. Great. And then, we haven't had an update on the X and when that's likely to -- we understand that obviously, the variants of the S are what's taking a lot of engineering resources in the near term. Deepak maybe, in terms of the X timing is it still towards the end of next year when you're thinking about it, and when do those engineering resources come to bear on your capital budget? Thanks.

好的。太好了。然後，我們還沒有關於 iPhone X 的更新消息，什麼時候可能會有更新呢？我們理解，很明顯，iPhone S 的變體在短期內會佔用大量的工程資源。 Deepak，關於 iPhone X 的發佈時間，您考慮的還是在明年年底左右嗎？這些工程資源什麼時候會對您的資本預算產生影響？謝謝。

So I'll maybe do part of the answer, and then Deepak. But yes, we're hard at work on the Model X, refining the design. We expect to be in limited -- to deliver a small number of units at the end of next year, and then volume production would only occur in 2015. So in terms of, if you're trying to model it financially, I'd model it more in 2015 than 2014, although we're on track to deliver (Inaudible) to customers at the end of next year. And from a product standpoint, the Model X is our primary focus. Obviously at this point, it's where most of our resources are spending a lot of time personally on the Model X and try to get the details right. And I think there are some things we can do to improve the Model X over the early demonstration prototype that people have seen. I think there's room to make it better. So we're going to push pretty hard to make it better than what people have seen. I think there's some exciting features that I love. Hopefully, other people like them, too.

所以我可能會回答一部分，然後是Deepak。是的，我們正在努力改進Model X的設計。我們預計在明年年底交付少量車型，然後量產要到2015年。所以，如果要從財務角度來衡量，我更傾向於在2015年而不是2014年進行量產，儘管我們預計在明年年底向客戶交付（聽不清楚）。從產品的角度來看，Model X是我們的主要關注點。顯然，目前我們大部分的資源都投入Model X的研發中，力求把細節做到位。我認為我們可以做一些改進，使其比人們看到的早期演示原型車更好。我認為它還有改進的空間。所以我們會非常努力地讓它比人們看到的更好。我認為它有一些令人興奮的功能，我很喜歡。希望其他人也喜歡它們。

I think Elon's covered the key points. A lot of the resources required for Model X is in our plan, in terms of expenditures. And that's one of the contributors for the increase in R&D expense as we go forward.

我認為伊隆已經涵蓋了關鍵點。 Model X 所需的大量資源，就支出而言，都在我們的計劃中。這也是未來研發費用增加的原因之一。

Okay. Thanks a lot, guys. I'll get back in the queue.

好的。非常感謝大家。我會回到隊列的。

Our next question comes from Andrea James with Dougherty & Company. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自Dougherty & Company的Andrea James。您的電話已接通。

Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. I imagine you have several options available to you now, from investing in the Model S capacity, which you mentioned in your letter, to finishing up the Model X and then to engineering the next generation of vehicle. And I was wondering if you could just weight your priorities and tell us how you're thinking about it, both from factory investment and also from your R&D.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。我想您現在有幾個選擇，從投資您在信中提到的Model S產能，到完成Model X的開發，再到下一代車型的設計。我想您能否從工廠投資和研發兩個方面，談談您的優先事項，並告訴我們您是如何考慮的。

Okay. Well -- okay. So it depends on how you -- how one weights those things. So in terms of our expenditures, we're still more on Model S than anything else, on every front, including R&D, because bear in mind, we've got right-hand drive that's coming out in the spring, and then there's the China version. And obviously, we've got the European version that's going in, and there are a number of nuances in the various European countries that require work to ensure the car operates smoothly. There's the Japan right-hand drive version. So there's a lot of versions, and individually maybe not so huge, but you add them up and they amount to a fair bit of spending. In terms of executive time, I think we're -- the Model X is swiftly rising to become the main priority. It's not quite there yet, but it will be soon. I'm allocating an increasing portion of my time to that every week. Probably in the fourth quarter, it becomes the top one, the top item, is my guess. These are somewhat qualitative statements, but --

好的。嗯，好的。這取決於你如何權衡這些因素。就我們的支出而言，我們在Model S上的投入仍然比其他任何方面都要多，包括研發在內，因為別忘了，我們有右舵版車型將於春季上市，然後還有中國版。當然，我們還有歐洲版車型即將上市，歐洲各國的車型也有一些細微差別，需要改進才能確保車輛平穩運行。還有日本的右舵版車款。所以有很多版本，單一版本可能規模不大，但加起來就是一筆不小的開銷。就高階主管時間而言，我認為Model X正迅速成為我們的首要任務。雖然現在還沒有完全實現，但很快就會實現。我每週都會把越來越多的時間分配到Model X。我猜，到第四季度，它可能會成為最重要的項目。這些是一些定性的陳述，但是—

The capital expenditures for Model X will primarily kick in next year, as we start to get some of the tooling phase. Right now, it's more of the human resource expenditure and some of the --

Model X 的資本支出主要會在明年開始，因為我們開始進入一些模具階段。目前，更多的是人力資源支出，以及一些…

It's design and engineering, but not a lot of tooling. It's a lot of lab work and design work, but not a lot of hard tooling or anything. There will be a fairly big chunk of that in second and third quarter, and fourth quarter next year.

這涉及設計和工程，但涉及的工具並不多。這涉及大量的實驗室工作和設計工作，但涉及的硬體工具或其他東西並不多。其中相當一部分將在第二季、第三季和明年第四季完成。

When does the next generation of vehicles move up? Is it a timing thing? Is it a cost of the battery pack thing? Is it resources?

下一代汽車何時升級？是時機問題嗎？是電池組成本問題嗎？還是資源問題？

You mean our high volume affordable car?

您指的是我們的高銷售平價車嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Right. So there's a couple -- as we think ahead to that vehicle, we're allocating a little bit of time to some of that advance planning. It's only maybe less than 5% a week, of our planning activity. But when you do the math, on saying okay, how many batteries do you need? What's the cell fabrication capability, the raw materials, all the elements? it's really quite a large number in order to ultimately, say, be at a factory that's producing half a million vehicles a year. And we start exceeding the entire laptop industry by a decent margin. So clearly new factories, new cell factories need to be built. And we need to be smarter about the raw materials going into the pack.

是的。所以，當我們提前考慮這款車時，我們會預留一些時間進行一些提前規劃。這大概只占我們每週規劃活動的不到5%。但如果你算一下，比如說，你需要多少顆電池？電芯製造能力如何？原料以及所有要素的產量如何？這真的是一個相當大的數字，最終要達到年產50萬輛汽車的工廠規模。而且，我們的產能也開始大幅超越整個筆記型電腦產業。所以顯然，我們需要建造新的工廠，新的電芯工廠。我們需要更明智地選擇用於生產電池組的原料。

I certainly see a clear path. I don't see any -- I see not really -- not only do I not see obstacles, I see a fairly clear path to that vehicle. I have high confidence that we can create a compelling car for around $35,000. Compelling meaning a 200-mile range and, of course, a lot of the other features that people have come to expect from Model S. Although fewer things would be default features. So yes, I feel pretty good about it. There's a huge amount of work, but no miracle is required.

我當然看到了一條清晰的道路。我沒有看到任何障礙——我實際上沒有看到——我不僅沒有看到任何障礙，而且我看到了一條通往那款車的相當清晰的道路。我非常有信心，我們能夠以大約3.5萬美元的價格打造出一款引人注目的汽車。引人注目意味著200英里的續航里程，當然還有人們對Model S期待的許多其他功能。儘管預設功能會少一些。所以，是的，我對此感覺很好。雖然還有大量的工作要做，但不需要奇蹟。

Are Tesla shareholders going to see any benefit from the hyper loop?

特斯拉股東會從超級高鐵中看到任何好處嗎？

I don't know. I think it's not out of the question, but I think I kind of shot myself in the foot by ever mentioning that, I believe, because I'm too strung out. Obviously, I have to focus on core Tesla business and SpaceX business, and that's more than enough. But did I commit to publishing a design, and we're going to provide quite a detailed design, I think, on Monday. And then invite critical feedback and see if people can find ways to improve it and then it can just be out there as an open source design that maybe can keep improving. And I don't have any plans to execute it, because I must remain focused on SpaceX and Tesla. If nothing happens for a few years with that, I mean maybe it could make sense to make the hyper loop happen with Tesla involvement, but that's, I would say, is extremely speculative.

我不知道。我覺得這並非不可能，但我覺得我提到這件事有點搬起石頭砸自己的腳，因為我太緊張了。顯然，我必須專注於特斯拉和SpaceX的核心業務，這就足夠了。但我有沒有承諾發佈設計方案呢？我想，我們會在周一提供一個相當詳細的設計方案。然後邀請大家提出批評性回饋，看看大家能否找到改進方法，之後它就可以作為開源設計方案發布，或許還能繼續改進。我目前沒有任何執行計劃，因為我必須專注於SpaceX和特斯拉。如果幾年內沒有任何進展，我的意思是，或許讓特斯拉參與超級高鐵計畫是可行的，但這完全是推測。

Finally, just for Deepak, what were the other regulatory credits in the quarter, and does your GM assumption include those in the long term?

最後，僅針對 Deepak，本季還有哪些其他監管信貸，您的 GM 假設是否包含長期信貸？

Yes. Our gross margin for automotive does include the other regulatory credits, because we have good visibility of those and they're locked in for us over longer term. ZEV credits are the ones which are not predictable from, in terms of recognizing sales and revenue by quarter. And given their unpredictability, we have deliberately kept that aside in our own projections. And in this quarter, in Q2, those were roughly $18 million.

是的。我們的汽車毛利率確實包含了其他監管積分，因為我們對這些積分的可見度很高，而且這些積分是長期鎖定的。零排放汽車積分是無法預測的，因為它會影響季度銷售額和收入。鑑於其不可預測性，我們在自己的預測中特意將其排除在外。在本季度，也就是第二季度，零排放汽車積分約為1800萬美元。

Can you just -- the visibility is better than the ZEV credits because why, exactly? And then I'll hop off. Thank you.

您能不能解釋一下—能見度比零排放汽車積分更好，具體原因是什麼？然後我就下車了。謝謝。

Because we have longer term contracts with certain car makers to sell those credits.

因為我們與某些汽車製造商簽訂了長期合約來銷售這些積分。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當‧喬納斯 (Adam Jonas)。您的電話已接通。

Hello, everybody. Okay, Elon, I'm not going to ask you any questions about a cap raise this time. I don't think we need to go there. First question, on the 40,000 unit annualized sales comment you made by late 2014 as a potential, what metric were you using when you were extrapolating that for Asia? Is that something like on a sales per store or percentage of addressable market?

大家好。好的，伊隆，這次我不問你任何關於提高上限的問題。我覺得我們沒必要討論這個問題。第一個問題，你之前說過，2014年底的年化銷售額有望達到4萬輛，那麼你當時用什麼指標來推算亞洲的銷售額呢？是像每家店的銷售額，還是潛在市場的百分比？

Actually, it's just based on what we kind of see the demand as. Right now, obviously, we're selling in North America at about 20,000 units a year. So Europe is a similar size market to North America. China is actually bigger, and then that doesn't include the rest of Asia-Pacific, South America, South America, Australia. So it seems like that's a pretty safe number to assume. I mean, I think we've probably got some potential upside from that number.

實際上，這只是基於我們對需求的判斷。目前，我們在北美的年銷售量約為2萬台。因此，歐洲市場與北美市場規模相當。中國市場實際上更大，這還不包括亞太其他地區、南美洲、澳洲。所以，這個數字似乎相當可靠。我的意思是，我認為我們可能從這個數字中看到一些潛在的上升空間。

Okay. That's clear. Next one, can you elaborate a bit on the nature of the supplier bottlenecks that you mentioned? Is it related to homologation for some of the exotic either European or right-hand drive type deliveries? Is it a new issue or was it a lingering legacy issue, and any update on when this could be resolved?

好的，很清楚。下一個問題，您能否詳細說明您提到的供應商瓶頸的性質？這是否與某些歐洲或右舵車款的認證有關？這是一個新問題還是一個長期存在的遺留問題？您能提供一些關於何時可以解決的最新資訊嗎？

Yes. This is an important point that our production is -- we have production constraint, not demand constraint. Very often, people will suggest all sorts of marketing ideas, this, that and the other thing. But obviously, our time is spent trying to figure out how to make more cars. And the things that prevent us from doing that are supplier parts, essentially. And we've got 90% of our suppliers are able to ramp up. And if 5% have some difficulty and 4% have a lot of difficulty and 1% just can't, and so we've got to replace those or insource those items. You can't supply -- give people a car that's 99% complete, unfortunately. And there's several thousand unique parts in the car. So that's really what we're really spending our time on is clearing out those production bottlenecks or supply chain bottlenecks. And I think we should have probably cleared most of them out in the next six months. I think by maybe end of Q1, Q2 we should -- certainly by Q2, I think, unlock a fair bit more production potential. And we'll see what the demand looks like at that point.

是的。我們的生產有一個很重要的觀點──我們受到的是生產約束，而不是需求約束。人們經常會提出各種各樣的行銷方案，諸如此類。但顯然，我們的時間都花在如何生產更多汽車。而阻礙我們生產的關鍵因素，本質上是供應商的零件。我們90%的供應商都能提高產量。如果5%的供應商遇到一些困難，4%的供應商遇到很大的困難，1%的供應商根本無法生產，那麼我們就必須更換這些供應商，或將這些零件進行內部採購。很遺憾，你不可能給人們一輛99%完成度的車。汽車裡有數千個獨特的零件。所以我們真正花時間做的事情，就是清除這些生產瓶頸或供應鏈瓶頸。我認為我們應該在未來六個月內清除掉大部分瓶頸。我想，到第一季末或第二季末，我們應該——當然，到第二季度，我想，就能釋放出更大的生產潛力。我們將看看那時的需求是什麼樣的。

But we're striving to become demand limited, as opposed to production limited. And I feel like we're actually able to attract more the A team on suppliers, whereas previously we had some trouble attracting the A team from suppliers. They felt we wouldn't be around long term. And we had that issue where IHS had predicted that Tesla would only ever sell 3,000 cars, lifetime, of the Model S. And then we sold that in the first -- basically the first quarter of production. And so the tricky thing was that a lot of us -- many of our suppliers had taken the IHS number or taken historical electric vehicle numbers and maybe given us a little bit of credit for our projections, but not much. And so they didn't tool up for the production that we actually experienced, as they were scrambling to make up for it. And, yes, so that's really -- they just didn't believe it. You have to take some time to tool up and do it. And then some suppliers, a small number, they're just not set up for volume production. So we've got to switch them out or insource them.

但我們正在努力實現需求受限，而不是產量受限。我覺得我們現在能夠吸引更多優秀的供應商，而之前我們很難吸引到優秀的供應商。他們覺得我們不會長期存在。我們遇到的問題是，IHS 預測特斯拉 Model S 的生命週期內只會售出 3000 輛。而我們在第一季——基本上是生產的第一個季度——就賣出了 3000 輛。所以棘手的是，我們許多供應商都參考了 IHS 的數據或歷史電動車數據，或許對我們的預測給予了一點信任，但信任度不高。所以他們並沒有像我們實際經歷的那樣做好準備，因為他們當時正忙著彌補。是的，這真的——他們根本不相信。你得花點時間做好準備。而且，有些供應商，少數，根本沒有做好量產的準備。所以我們必須將他們替換掉或將他們納入內部。

That's clear, Elon. Thanks. And this is my last question. I think many of the people on this call might be interested in your views on the BMW I3. That's it. Thanks. What do you think?

很清楚，埃隆。謝謝。這是我的最後一個問題。我想這次電話會議中的很多人可能對你對寶馬i3的看法感興趣。就這樣。謝謝。你覺得怎麼樣？

Well, I'm glad to see that BMW is bringing an electric car to market. That's cool. I think there's room to improve on the I3, and I hope they do. My comments about manufacturers --

嗯，我很高興看到BMW正在向市場推出一款電動車。這很酷。我認為i3還有進步的空間，我希望他們能做到。我對製造商的看法是—

Sorry. (Laughter)

抱歉。 （笑聲）

Anyway, I keep on -- I really do encourage other manufacturers to bring electric cars to market, because it's a good thing. And they need to bring it to market, and then keep innovating and improving and making better and better electric cars. And that's what's going to result in us, in humanity, achieving a sustainable transport future. I wish it was going faster than it is.

無論如何，我始終堅持下去——我真誠地鼓勵其他製造商將電動車推向市場，因為這是一件好事。他們需要將電動車推向市場，然後不斷創新、改進，製造出越來越好的電動車。這才能讓我們，乃至全人類，實現永續的交通未來。我希望它能發展得更快一些。

Yes. Thank you for that, Elon. Good answer.

是的。謝謝你，埃隆。回答得真好。

Sure.

當然。

Our next question comes from Brian Johnson with Barclays. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。您的電話已接通。

Yes. Good afternoon. Two questions. One for Deepak, probably, and one for Elon on Gen 3. For Deepak, the first question, ask you to bridge on gross margin through the end of the year. Could you just maybe give us, on the bridge of improvement from 1Q to 2Q, the big chunks of things that contributed to that margin increase, ex-reg credits?

是的，下午好。有兩個問題。一個大概是問Deepak，另一個是問Elon，關於第三代。 Deepak，第一個問題，請問您能否在年底前實現毛利率的橋接。您能否就第一季和第二季的改善橋接，談談促成利潤率成長的主要因素，例如除註冊稅以外的抵免額？

Sure. I would say the biggest pieces there were spot cost reduction. As we continue to get more efficient at our suppliers, as well as some of the design changes we made to make the design efficient, while not taking anything away from a consumer point of view. We also had improvements in our labor and overhead and our freight costs. And all of those, in fact, were partially offset by the mix we had. We had a poorer mix in Q2, since we sold the 40 (Inaudible) cars that had the 60 (Inaudible) battery pack and --

當然。我想說，最大的進步是現貨成本的降低。我們不斷提高供應商的效率，並進行了一些設計改進，以提高設計效率，同時又不犧牲消費者的利益。我們的人工、管理費用和運費也都有所改善。事實上，所有這些改進都被我們的產品組合部分抵消了。第二季我們的產品組合比較差，因為我們賣了40輛配備60個電池組的汽車，而且…

We essentially sold at a loss.

我們基本上是虧本銷售。

Right, yes. Which had, from an average gross margin perspective, a negative impact. So I think what I'm sharing with you is no different than what we have shared before. It's those same levers, and part cost is our biggest lever that helps to drive.

是的，是的。從平均毛利率的角度來看，這確實產生了負面影響。所以我認為我今天分享的內容和我們之前分享的沒什麼不同。這些槓桿是一樣的，而零件成本是我們最大的驅動力。

Yes, parts, labor, yes. That's what cars are made of. And I think -- maybe another way to characterize it is like in the fourth quarter of last year, we were extremely dumb at making cars. In the first quarter, we were maybe still pretty dumb/ And we're slightly dumb in the second quarter; and hopefully, by the fourth quarter, we will at least not be dumb, when you think about it. (Laughter)

是的，零件，勞力，沒錯。汽車就是由這些組成的。我想──或許換個說法，就像去年第四季，我們造車極其愚蠢。第一季度，我們可能仍然相當愚蠢/第二季度我們稍微愚蠢了一點；但願到第四季度，我們至少不會再愚蠢了，想想看。 （笑聲）

I'll figure out how to quantify that.

我會想辦法量化這一點。

This is not some super -- how did we get so super good? It's like, how do we stop being so stupid?

這不是什麼超級——我們怎麼會變得這麼優秀？而是，我們怎麼不再那麼愚蠢？

Second question, Gen 3, two questions underneath, the 35K price point, is that before or after regulatory -- excuse me, consumer credits and tax credits? And then second, as you think of Gen 3 and making money at it, some talk I've heard that maybe small format batteries aren't the right way to go, but large formats, just maybe reiterate, I kind of think the former, small format, where you are on those and how that gives you some comfort in getting to the price point on the Gen 3?

第二個問題，關於第三代電池，我有兩個問題，35000 的價位是在監管政策——不好意思，消費者信貸和稅收抵免——之前還是之後？第二個問題，說到第三代電池以及如何盈利，我聽到有人說小尺寸電池可能不是正確的選擇，但大尺寸電池，我可能要重申一下，我認為是前者，小尺寸電池，您目前處於什麼位置？這如何讓您在第三代電池的定價上感到安心？

Sure. So yes, the 35K does not assume -- assumes that the $7,500 federal tax credit is no longer available. There may be other sort of state level tax credits, or maybe other things, but we're assuming that the 35K is without any subsidy.

當然。所以，35,000美元的補貼計畫並不假設──假設7,500美元的聯邦稅收抵免不再有效。可能還有其他類型的州級稅收抵免，或其他補貼，但我們假設35,000美元的補貼計劃沒有任何補貼。

Right.

正確的。

It's always helpful to have some subsidy, but we're not counting on it. And so in terms of the cell format, for us, when we talk to our key cell suppliers and we ask them to give us -- say at the cell level, what is the best energy density, and what is the best price dollars per watt hour, invariably, the 18650 format is the best, usually by a pretty decent margin. That's an 18-millimeter by 65-millimeter cylinder -- yes, that's the format that seems to be the best. It has advantages. I think, you say, well, why does it cost less? You're able to kind of pack -- and why does it have that energy savings -- you're able to compress and pack in quite a bit of electrode and electrolyte in that cylinder. That's why batteries really were like -- can survey batteries, there's like cylinder, AA, AAA, and that kind of thing, but you can pack more in there. And this just happens to be a fairly efficient manufacturing process in almost every way, relative to the prismatic approach. Also as you make the cell bigger, you have to say that the reject rate for the cell is going to increase. So you think of maybe an analogy to the silicon wafer fab and say, what would be cheaper, having a whole bunch of, say, 6-inch wafers or one 12-inch wafer? And actually, it's the lower diameter wafer that is cheaper, because with the silicon, as with electrode area, you have to reject anything that's got a flaw. So the reject rate -- and to also help us think of things in the limit. So you say in the limit, where the battery -- where the whole battery is one cell, the reject rate would be virtually 100%. And then as you make the cell smaller and smaller, the reject rate will reduce. And at the 18650 format, the reject rate is very low. And you have very good statistical reliability. So I'm sort of giving long winded answers here.

獲得一些補助總是有幫助的，但我們並不指望它。所以就電芯規格而言，對我們來說，當我們與主要電芯供應商溝通，並要求他們提供——比如在電芯層面——最佳能量密度是多少，以及每瓦時最佳價格是多少時，我們總是會選擇18650規格，通常優勢相當可觀。這是一種18毫米 x 65毫米的圓柱體——是的，這似乎是最好的規格。它有優勢。我想，你會問，為什麼它成本更低？因為它可以壓縮——為什麼它能節省能源——你可以在圓柱體裡壓縮並裝入相當多的電極和電解液。這就是為什麼電池真的像——可以測量電池，有圓柱體、AA、AAA之類的，但你可以在裡面裝更多東西。與方形電池相比，這幾乎在各個方面都是相當高效的製造流程。而且，隨著電池尺寸的增加，電池的廢品率也會跟著上升。所以，不妨用矽晶圓廠來打個比方，問一下，生產一堆6吋晶圓和一塊12吋晶圓，哪個比較便宜？實際上，直徑較小的晶圓較便宜，因為矽片和電極區域一樣，任何有瑕疵的都必須拒收。所以，廢品率──也有助於我們在極限條件下思考。在極限條件下，如果整個電池只有一顆電池，廢品率幾乎是100%。而隨著電池尺寸越來越小，廢品率就會降低。 18650規格的電池，廢品率非常低，而且統計可靠性也很好。所以我在這裡給的答案有點冗長。

Shorthand, could we call it a server rack versus a mainframe strategy?

簡而言之，我們可以稱之為伺服器機架與大型主機策略嗎？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Okay. And in terms of how you're managing the load, are there advantages to having several thousand? I've heard numbers as high as 8,000 cells, versus a smaller number, again kind of thinking about the statistics behind it?

好的。那麼，就你們如何管理負載而言，擁有幾千個單元有什麼優勢嗎？我聽說有高達 8000 個單元，相較之下，數量較少的單元就沒那麼有優勢了。您又在思考這背後的統計數據嗎？

Well, I think we're at around 7,000 cell number for the 85-kilowatt hour pack. If we were to say, what's the ideal cell number, and if we were to get a whole new cell, like the whole new cell plant -- I think we might drop the cell number in half, but probably not less than that. And the other thing that cells give you is that for long term life of the pack, if you have a large number of cells, then losing a cell actually has a very small impact on the total capacity of a pack, whereas if you have a small number of cells, then losing a cell has a big impact on the capacity of the pack. So there's some advantages for life as well, and for reliability.

嗯，我認為85千瓦時的電池組大約需要7000個電池單元。如果我們問理想的電池單元數量是多少，如果我們要換一整套新的電池單元，例如新建一個電池工廠——我想我們可能會把電池單元數量減少一半，但可能不會少於這個數字。電池單元帶來的另一個好處是，就電池組的長期使用壽命而言，如果電池單元數量較多，那麼丟失一個電池單元對電池組的總容量影響實際上很小；而如果電池單元數量較少，那麼丟失一個電池單元對電池組的容量影響很大。所以，電池單元對電池組的使用壽命和可靠性也有一定的好處。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Dan Galves with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Dan Galves。您的電話已接通。

Okay. Thanks. Just wanted to follow up on the 40,000 units per year by late 2014 comment in the shareholder letter, can you tell us what North American order flow is on an annualized basis right now? And what type of order rate are you seeing in Europe currently, and what's the trajectory, what's been the trajectory of that?

好的，謝謝。關於股東信中提到的2014年底每年生產4萬台，您能否告訴我們目前北美的訂單量以年率計算是多少？目前歐洲的訂單量是多少？趨勢如何？

Yes. So I don't want to get too specific, but we're at a -- in terms of net orders, weekly net orders, so new orders net of cancellations, it's something on -- fluctuates a little bit from week to week, but it's around 20,000 right now for North America. We're not trying to push it higher than that, because it's kind of pointless to push volume when you don't have the production to meet it. So I think there's potential there for, once we are sort of -- we have service centers in more parts of the country and more stores out there and more word of mouth and more Supercharger stations, and there's an argument that the long-term demand in North America is greater than 20,000 units a year, since we lack those things today, and have that approximate demand.

是的。我不想說得太具體，但我們的淨訂單量，也就是每週淨訂單量（扣除取消訂單後的新訂單量）每週都會有小幅波動，但目前北美地區的訂單量大約是2萬輛。我們不會試圖將其推得更高，因為在產量不足以滿足需求的情況下，增加產量毫無意義。所以我認為，一旦我們在全國更多地區設立服務中心、開設更多門市、提升口碑、建造更多超級充電站，並且有觀點認為北美的長期需求量將超過每年2萬輛，因為我們目前缺乏這些，而且需求量大致如此，那麼我認為還是有潛力的。

And then in Europe, also in Europe, we're actually not trying to push sales very hard, because the -- if you order a car in Europe, you're going to get it in like maybe November. So we really, again, need to improve our production. We need to make sure that the entry of the car into Europe is smooth, that people have a good experience with the car, that all the service centers are there, that the people are well trained. These are the really important things. And then like I said, I think if you look at sedan demand, the EU or greater EU area is actually higher than North America in general sedan demand. So if you say, how many Prius sedans are sold? More are sold in the greater EU area than in North America. So to the degree that there's some -- that we achieve a similar percentage in Europe, and maybe it's a bit less, because our car costs a bit more because it's got to come from the US and there's increased logistics costs and import duties and that kind of thing.

在歐洲，我們其實沒有刻意推銷，因為──如果你在歐洲訂購一輛車，大概11月就能拿到。所以我們真的需要再次提高產量。我們需要確保汽車順利進入歐洲，確保人們擁有良好的用車體驗，確保所有服務中心都在那裡，確保工作人員訓練有素。這些都是非常重要的事。正如我所說，我認為如果你看看轎車需求，你會發現歐盟或歐盟大區對轎車的整體需求實際上高於北美。所以，如果你問普銳斯轎車的銷量是多少？歐盟大區的銷售量比北美多。所以，我們在歐洲的銷售也達到了類似的水平，但可能略低一些，因為我們的汽車價格更高，因為它必須從美國進口，而且物流成本、進口關稅等等都增加了。

So that's why we're not going to say we assume it's going to be just as good as North America, but it's probably at least half as good as North America, and maybe it is ultimately as good as North America. But a conservative estimate would say it's half as good. And then China and rest of Asia and other countries, if they can be half as good as North America, then we're at the 40,000 unit number. So that all seems pretty reasonable to me.

所以，我們不會假設它的性能會和北美一樣好，但至少會達到北美的一半，甚至最終會達到北美的水平。保守估計，它的性能只有北美的一半。而中國、亞洲其他地區以及其他國家，如果能達到北美的一半，那麼產量就達到了4萬台。所以，在我看來，這一切都相當合理。

That makes sense. In terms of capacity to build, I think your current line is set up for maybe 40,000 to 50,000 units on two shifts. I guess, two questions. When do you think you can get to that number in terms of production rate, and what is the decision making process in terms of potentially adding more capacity if you're going to fill that up with just the Model S?

這很有道理。就產能而言，我認為你們目前的生產線大概是兩班制，每月產量4萬到5萬輛。我想問兩個問題。你們認為什麼時候才能達到這個產量？如果現在只生產Model S，你們在增加產能的決策過程是怎麼樣的？

Right. And yes, as I said earlier, while we have the ability to produce at the 40,000 unit level, all of our suppliers must also have that ability. So that's the thing that's holding us back. I think we -- there's certainly room to grow beyond that. We have a big factory, but yes. So we'll have to see how demand settles out. As I mentioned, we want to get to being demand constrained as soon as possible. Hopefully, we'll get there next year. That's our goal, at least by the end of next year. And then, of course, we'll bring the Model X online in limited numbers next year and then in bigger numbers in 2015. And the potential is obviously very significant. But I won't over promise or -- I think there's a lot of potential, but we'll have to see how it turns out.

是的。是的，正如我之前所說，雖然我們有能力達到4萬輛的產量，但我們所有的供應商也必須具備相同的能力。所以這就是阻礙我們前進的因素。我認為我們——當然還有更大的成長空間。我們有一個大工廠，但是的。所以我們必須看看需求如何穩定下來。正如我所提到的，我們希望盡快達到需求受限的程度。希望明年我們能達成這個目標。這是我們的目標，至少在明年年底實現。當然，我們明年會少量生產Model X，然後在2015年大規模生產。顯然，Model X的潛力非常巨大。但我不會過度承諾——我認為潛力很大，但我們必須看看最終結果如何。

Okay. Great. One last question. You mentioned that the changes to options and pricing that went in maybe a week ago was going to be a benefit to margin in the back half. Do you have any sense of kind of how much it would have benefited margins in this quarter, or do you have a projection for how much of an increase you'll see from that action?

好的。太好了。最後一個問題。您提到大約一週前實施的選擇權和定價調整將對下半年的利潤率產生利好。您覺得這會對本季的利潤率帶來多大的提升？或者您預測一下這項調整會帶來多大的獲利成長？

We're really not sure, because we only introduced them less than a week ago, like four days ago, five days ago, and we don't know what the take rate's going to be. We've got some guesses, but I think there's no need to guess, because we'll in, let's say, a few weeks time, we'll have a pretty good sense for what the option mix is in reality, as opposed to just like a guess. So what we did with the options is we actually unbundled a bunch of things. We added some additional options that weren't there before, like parking sensors and improved interior trim options, and a number of other things that people had been asking for that are -- subzero weather package. There's improved tires, which come as default on the 85 and are an option on the 60. There's a whole bunch of cool things actually, and then --

我們真的不確定，因為我們推出這些功能還不到一周，大概四、五天前，所以還不知道實際的接受率會是多少。我們有一些猜測，但我認為沒必要猜測，因為大概再過幾週，我們就能對實際的選配配置有一個大致的了解，而不是僅僅猜測。所以我們對這些選配配置的處理方式是，實際上拆分了很多東西。我們增加了一些以前沒有的選配配置，例如停車感應器和改進的內裝配置，以及一些大家一直要求的其他配置，例如零下天氣套裝。還有改進的輪胎，85 是標配，60 是選配。實際上還有很多很酷的東西，然後——

New wheels.

新輪子。

Oh, yes, new wheels, the aerowheels, which improve range and give us actually by far the lowest drag coefficient of any car in production. And yes, there's a whole bunch of cool stuff. And like I said, we unbundled some things like the performance package, which required you to buy a whole bunch of things in addition to just the 0 to 60 time. Now you essentially can buy just the power and then decide if you want the other options. And we slightly lowered the price of the technology package. And to be clear, the base price stayed the same, and the technology package dropped. The cold weather package, we also dropped, in deference to our customers in Norway, because I think the subzero package you kind of need if you're in Norway, and so we actually dropped the cost. We made on headlights and the Hi-Definition backup camera, we made that standard equipment on all cars. So essentially, I think the value for money is actually better. But we did increase the price on some of the optional, the extras that, so we'll actually make more margin on some of the things out there, like for example, the third row seats, and those were a fairly low margin item. So we increased the price to make it more of a better margin item for us.

哦，對了，還有新的輪轂，也就是空氣動力輪轂，它提升了續航里程，並且實際上讓我們的風阻係數達到了目前量產車型的最低水平。沒錯，還有很多很酷的東西。就像我說的，我們拆分了一些東西，例如性能套件，這需要你除了0到60英里/小時加速之外還要買很多東西。現在你基本上可以只買動力套件，然後再決定是否需要其他選項。我們也略微降低了科技套件的價格。需要說明的是，基礎價格保持不變，科技套件的價格下降了。為了尊重挪威客戶的需求，我們也降低了寒冷天氣套件的價格，因為我認為如果你在挪威，你需要零下溫度套件，所以我們實際上降低了成本。我們取消了頭燈和高清倒車攝像頭，將這些作為所有車型的標準配置。所以，本質上，我認為性價比更高了。但我們確實提高了一些選配配置和附加配置的價格，這樣實際上就能提高一些產品的利潤，例如第三排座椅，這些產品的利潤本來就比較低。所以我們提高了價格，讓它成為我們利潤更高的產品。

Okay. Great. Thanks.

好的。太好了。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Colin Rusch with Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Colin Rusch。您的電話已接通。

Great. Can you guys talk a little bit about the introduction of new generations of batteries into the battery pack? How much testing do they need to go through, and how much impact do you think that can be on the cost structure over the next several quarters?

太好了。你們能談談將新一代電池引入電池組的情況嗎？它們需要經過多少測試？您認為這會對未來幾季的成本結構產生多大影響？

We're not planning on making a significant fundamental technology change at the cell level. We' re making a number of improvements at the pack level, and in the electronics and packaging and all that stuff that surrounds the pack. So there's the cell and the non-cell portion of the cost. To get the cell cost lower, we're working with our main cell supplier, which is Panasonic, and working with them to improve the cost of the cell. And obviously, the more volume there helps. And we're quite optimistic about that relationship. It's going really well. They're a great partner to have, actually. So yes, I'm not quite fully answering your question, but we feel good about where things are and where they're headed on both the cell and non-cell portion of the battery pack cost.

我們不打算在電芯層面進行重大的根本性技術變革。我們正在對電池組層面進行一系列改進，包括電子元件、封裝以及電池組週邊的所有零件。所以成本中既包括電芯部分，也包括非電芯部分。為了降低電芯成本，我們正在與我們的主要電芯供應商松下合作，共同降低電芯成本。顯然，產量越大越有幫助。我們對這種合作關係非常樂觀。目前進展非常順利。實際上，他們是一位非常棒的合作夥伴。是的，我並沒有完全回答你的問題，但我們對電池組成本中電芯和非電芯部分的現狀和未來發展方向感到滿意。

Okay. Perfect. And then with the purchase of the additional land around your current facility, pie in the sky. How much capacity does that -- would that potentially give you, if you build out all that area?

好的。完美。然後，購買現有設施周圍的額外土地，就像空中樓閣一樣。如果把所有區域都建起來，能帶來多少產能？

Well, it's worth learning that that piece of land adjacent to the factory was originally part of the Nummi facility. So when we bought the factory, it was actually divided into the center parcel and then kind of a north parcel. It was mostly just land, and a south parcel that was mostly land. So when we bought, we bought essentially the factory and the main parcel of land, but there were these two little sort of satellite parcels. And what we did was we bought about half, I guess, of the south land parcel. And Nummi as a whole, as a factory, had about half million unit capacity. So we'd actually need to be slightly more space efficient than them to achieve the 500K number, or buy maybe some more land. So I don't think buying that land puts us above the 500K number. It just makes it easier for to us achieve the 500K number.

值得一提的是，工廠附近的那塊地原本是新聯合汽車公司（Nummi）工廠的一部分。我們買下工廠的時候，它實際上被分成了中心地塊和北地塊，北地塊主要都是土地，南地塊也主要都是土地。所以我們買下的時候，基本上是買下了工廠和主地塊，但還有兩塊衛星地塊。我們買下了南地塊大約一半的地。而新聯合汽車公司作為一個工廠，產能大約是50萬輛。所以，為了達到50萬輛的目標，我們實際上需要比他們更有效率地利用空間，或者可能還要再買一些土地。所以我認為買下那塊地並不會讓我們的產能超過50萬輛，只是讓我們更容易達到50萬輛的目標。

Okay. Excellent. Thank you so much.

好的。太好了。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from John Lovallo with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自美銀美林的John Lovallo。您的電話已接通。

Hello, guys. Thanks for taking the call. First question would be on what you're expecting in terms of the ramp in R&D and SG&A in the back half of the year. Can you hear me okay?

大家好。感謝您接聽電話。第一個問題是，您對下半年研發與銷售、行政及行政管理（SG&A）支出的成長預期如何？您聽見我說話嗎？

Yes. R&D and SG&A, right?

是的。研發和銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 是嗎？

Yes, please.

是的，請。

Right. I think certainly it's going to be fairly significant. I want to be careful about how much I quote in terms of percentages, but I think it's more important to understand the physicals, as we have indicated in the shareholder letter, that overall, given the continued emphasis on multiple product programs that we have, we will see an increase in R&D. And on the sales and SG&A side overall, we are strengthening our infrastructure globally on a variety of fronts. So I would say from a trend perspective, the percentage increase would be higher than what you've seen in the last couple of quarters.

是的。我認為這肯定會相當顯著。我不太會引用百分比，但我認為更重要的是了解實際數據。正如我們在致股東信中所指出的，總體而言，鑑於我們持續重視多個產品項目，我們的研發支出將會增加。就銷售和銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 而言，我們正在全球多個方面加強基礎設施建設。因此，從趨勢來看，百分比增幅將高於過去幾季的水平。

Okay. That's helpful. And then if we think about cash flow for a minute, I think if you look at just free cash flow was a use of about $79 million in the quarter, and I think if you make the adjustments that you guys had talked about, I think $11 million for the DOE payments and a $67 million increase in receivables that may not occur. That looks like about a use of $1 million. Now you have CapEx ramping up in the back half of the year. So how are you thinking about just free cash flow generation through the remainder of the year and into 2014?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，如果我們考慮現金流，我認為如果只看自由現金流，本季的支出約為7900萬美元。如果進行你們之前討論的調整，我認為其中1100萬美元用於支付能源部款項，另外6700萬美元的應收帳款可能不會增加。這看起來大約是100萬美元的支出。現在，你們的資本支出在下半年增加。那麼，您如何看待今年剩餘時間和2014年的自由現金流？

We said in the shareholder letter that we clearly intend to generate cash flow from operations. You're right in pointing out that some of that will be offset by our capital expenditures, and we want to be very careful about burning cash. We want to be sure we are as close as possible to a free cash flow position, but that's something that we don't want to necessarily guide to. We're going to manage it, but we are going to be judicious and spend the CapEx where we need to, in order to make sure that we are growing at the right pace.

我們在致股東信中表示，我們明確計劃透過營運產生現金流。您指出，部分現金流將被我們的資本支出抵消，這一點非常正確，我們希望非常謹慎地控制現金消耗。我們希望確保盡可能接近自由現金流水平，但我們不想將其作為指導方針。我們會進行管理，但我們會謹慎行事，將資本支出用在需要的地方，以確保我們以正確的速度成長。

Yes. We are aspiring to make slight improvements to our cash position quarter over quarter. I mean, that's our aspiration.

是的。我們希望現金狀況逐季略有改善。我的意思是，這是我們的願望。

Okay. That's very helpful, again. And the final question would be, just looking at the typical ramp curve of a vehicle after launch, generally speaking, and I don't want to put you guys in a category with any other vehicle, but generally speaking, volumes tend to peak, call it seven, eight quarters out. Now you guys -- sorry.

好的。這又很有幫助了。最後一個問題是，就一輛汽車在上市後的典型成長曲線來看，一般來說，我不想把你們和其他任何汽車歸為一類，但一般來說，銷量往往會在七、八個季度後達到高峰。現在，各位——抱歉。

I don't think that's going to be the case for the Model S.

我不認為 Model S 會出現這種情況。

Okay. That was the question. So in North America, you would say that you have not seen any signs of slowdown in new orders?

好的。問題就是這樣。那麼在北美，您認為您沒有看到新訂單放緩的跡象嗎？

No.

不。

Yes. The traditional model doesn't apply for Tesla, because that assumes that you have a network which is already present, not only in the US, but globally.

是的。傳統模式並不適用於特斯拉，因為傳統模式假設特斯拉已經擁有一個成熟的網絡，不僅在美國，而且在全球。

Correct, exactly.

完全正確。

So we just don't have that presence. We are starting here essentially from scratch and slowly increasing our presence, and making consumers feel comfortable about what EVs are.

所以我們的影響力還不夠。我們基本上是從零開始，慢慢提升影響力，讓消費者對電動車感到安心。

Exactly. I think there's a pretty long way to go.

確實。我覺得還有很長的路要走。

Go ahead. Sorry.

繼續吧，抱歉。

It's sort of like an S curve of technology adoption. You've got the really early adopters. But for the mainstream audience, they need to really see a lot of cars on the road for a long time to really feel like -- to feel comfortable buying it, particularly when it's a new technology, like an electric car, as Deepak was saying.

這有點像是技術採用的S曲線。你確實看到了早期採用者。但對於主流受眾來說，他們需要在路上看到很多汽車並且長期使用，才能真正感到——放心購買，尤其是像迪帕克所說的電動車這樣的新技術。

Okay. Thanks very much, guys.

好的。非常感謝大家。

Our next question comes from Craig Irwin with Wedbush. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自韋德布希的克雷格歐文。您的電話已接通。

Evening, gentlemen. Congratulations on the solid progress.

晚上好，先生們。恭喜你們取得了紮實的進展。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

First question I wanted to ask was about the Tilburg plant capacity. What sort of capacity have you put into that plant, and what sort of capital investment would be needed there, as far as expanding finishing capacity? Can you sort of sketch this out for us a little bit?

我想問的第一個問題是關於蒂爾堡工廠的產能。你們在該工廠投入了多少產能？為了擴大精加工產能，需要多少資本投入？能為我們簡單介紹一下嗎？

Yes. I really -- I don't think that that's going to be in any way a limitation on our progress. To be clear, it's a final assembly plant. So we're not dependent on parts from suppliers or anything. Generally, when we haven't been dependent on parts -- when we haven't had an external dependency, we've been able to get the job done, but once data is in the hands of others, that makes it a lot more difficult. And it is not in the hands of others in the case of the Tilburg plant.

是的。我真的不認為這會以任何方式限制我們的進展。需要明確的是，這是一家總裝廠。所以我們不依賴供應商的零件或其他任何東西。通常情況下，當我們不依賴零件——當我們沒有外部依賴時，我們就能完成工作，但一旦數據落入他人手中，就會變得困難得多。而蒂爾堡工廠的數據就不落入他人手中。

Great. Great. Progress in China, obviously the Chinese market is a huge market. There's a lot of enthusiasm over there for electric cars. Can you share with us where you stand on your order rate out of China, what you think we're likely to see over the course of the next couple quarters, and if maybe you could update us on your store plan for China?

太好了！太好了！中國市場取得了進展，顯然中國市場是一個龐大的市場。那裡對電動車的熱情很高。您能否分享一下您在中國市場的訂單率，以及您認為未來幾季可能會出現的情況？能否介紹一下您在中國的門市計畫？

Sure. I wouldn't say that this is quite the quarter to talk about China. I think we might want to talk about it, probably at the next earnings call, in more depth. But as you say, China is a huge market. It's the world's biggest market for premium sedans. If you take something like, say the Mercedes S class, they sell approximately half of allof their worldwide production in China. Obviously, if we were to ratio -- have a similar ratio, that would be a pretty amazing outcome for Tesla. But we're not counting on anything remotely like that, quite the opposite. But it could be a positive upside surprise there, you just never know.

當然。我不認為這個季度是談論中國市場的最佳時機。我想我們或許應該在下次財報電話會議上更深入地討論這個問題。但正如你所說，中國是一個巨大的市場。它是全球最大的高級轎車市場。以賓士S-Class轎車為例，其全球產量的一半左右在中國銷售。顯然，如果我們能得到類似的比例，這對特斯拉來說將是一個非常驚人的結果。但我們並不指望任何類似的事情，恰恰相反。但這或許會是個正面的驚喜，只是你永遠不知道。

But we have one store in Beijing that we'll probably open later this year. And I'm going to visit China obviously and really try to understand the market and make sure we're doing the right things for Chinese consumers and the buyers over there, because not every market wants exactly the same thing, so we've got to make sure that our product is properly tailored to the desires of consumers in every market, in Europe, North America or China or Japan, or anywhere else. So we're doing a few things especially for the China market, for example, improving the comfort level of the rear seat, because it's common for people in China to be driven rather than drive themselves. And when we first designed the Model S, we designed it to be the perfect driver's car, really. It's like, how do we make the driver fall in love with the car? And obviously, we -- if people are being driven around, then we need to make sure that the back seat is optimized. We're working on an executive -- kind of an executive back seat that's more comfortable than what we have right now, which is kind of like the family back seat.

但我們在北京有一家門市，可能會在今年稍後開業。我當然會去中國考察，努力了解市場，確保我們為中國消費者和那裡的買家提供合適的產品。因為每個市場的需求各不相同，所以我們必須確保我們的產品能夠滿足每個市場消費者的需求，無論是歐洲、北美、中國、日本或其他任何地方。因此，我們正在專門針對中國市場做一些改進，例如提升後座的舒適度，因為在中國，人們通常被載著出行，而不是自己開車。當我們最初設計Model S時，就將其設計成一款完美的駕駛者之車。問題是，我們該如何讓駕駛者愛上這款車？顯然，如果人們是被載著出行，那麼我們需要確保後座得到最佳化。我們正在研發一款行政級後座，比我們現在的後座更舒適，我們現在的後座有點像家庭後座。

So those are some of the things. It's difficult to predict, and this is not the quarter to talk about China. Maybe at the next earnings call, and certainly at the earnings call about Q4, as we'll be talking quite a bit about it at that point, I think.

以上就是一些情況。很難預測，而且這個季度也不適合談論中國市場。也許下次財報電話會議，當然也包括第四季的財報電話會議，到時候我們會討論很多。

Great. And then last one, if I may, you've got a pretty interesting trajectory on battery costs over the next few years. Can you share with us philosophically whether or not you might use the reduction in battery pack costs as a way to sort of neutralize the impact of the federal tax credit rolling off for your customers or do you see this possibly extending out beyond the time frame where that would have the necessary benefit?

太好了。最後一個問題，如果可以的話，您預測未來幾年電池成本的變化趨勢會非常有趣。您能否從理念上與我們分享一下，您是否會利用電池組成本的降低來抵消聯邦稅收抵免政策對客戶的影響？或者，您認為這種政策可能會延續到產生必要效益的時間範圍之外？

Well, the $7,500 federal tax credit is limited to the first 200,000 cars for any manufacturer. So that -- between model S and X, we think probably that's going to get exhausted in the next several years, and that's why we think it probably wouldn't apply to our third generation, the affordable car. At that point, if it's possible for us to maintain a high margin and neutralize the loss of the tax credit, if I think we'll probably -- I'd probably elect to do that, rather than have a higher margin car.

嗯，7,500 美元的聯邦稅收抵免僅限於任何製造商生產的前 20 萬輛汽車。因此，我們認為，在 Model S 和 Model X 之間，這項抵免政策在未來幾年內可能會用盡，因此我們認為這項抵免政策可能不適用於我們的第三代車型，也就是經濟型轎車。到那時，如果我們能夠保持高利潤率並抵消稅收抵免的損失，我認為我們可能會——我可能會選擇這樣做，而不是生產利潤率更高的車型。

Thanks again for taking my questions.

再次感謝您回答我的問題。

Okay. We're running about five minutes over, everyone. We want to make sure that we get to all the questions in the queue. So we have a couple more left. So if we can keep the questions brief, we'll wrap this up as quickly as we can.

好的。各位，我們大約超時五分鐘了。我們要確保所有問題都能得到解答。所以還剩下幾個問題。如果問題能簡短一些，我們會盡快結束。

Our next question comes from Aditya Satghare with Lazard Capital Markets. Your line is open

下一個問題來自 Lazard Capital Markets 的 Aditya Satghare。您的電話已接通

Thank you. I had two questions. Firstly, as a follow-up on the 40,000 unit price, on the 40,000 unit target, how many different versions of the ModelS and how many different countries do you plan to sell into to get to that 40,000 unit target?

謝謝。我有兩個問題。首先，關於4萬輛的售價和目標，為了達到4萬輛的目標，你們計劃銷售多少個不同版本的Model S，以及在多少個不同的國家銷售？

In terms of actually the number of countries, it would be quite a large number of countries, because of the EU, which is -- I forget, I'm not sure of the exact number of countries in the EU, but I think it's 14 or 15 or something like that. And then, of course, there's Norway and Switzerland which are not in the EU. So right there, you're approaching -- and taking Canada and the US into account, you're talking about 20 countries right there. And then the China, Japan -- Japan's a very important market for us, by the way. We're going to take the Japan market very seriously. I know that a lot of American car companies, they don't take the Japan market really seriously, but I think if we're going to do that, I know it would -- yes. The Japanese market's very discerning, and actually I would consider it a great honor if the Japanese were to actually buy our car.

就實際國家數量而言，會有很多國家，因為歐盟——我忘記了，我不確定歐盟的具體國家數量，但我認為大概是14個或15個左右。當然，還有挪威和瑞士，它們不屬於歐盟。所以，算上加拿大和美國，總共差不多有20個國家。然後是中國和日本——順便說一下，日本對我們來說是一個非常重要的市場。我們會非常重視日本市場。我知道很多美國汽車公司不太重視日本市場，但我認為如果我們要這麼做，我知道他們會的——是的。日本市場非常挑剔，實際上，如果日本人真的購買我們的汽車，我會感到非常榮幸。

Got it. Okay. Okay. And the second question was on the US market. Could you give us a little bit more color about your buyer base here, and what kind of potential brands do you think your customers are swapping out and who do you think you're grabbing share from?

明白了。好的。好的。第二個問題是關於美國市場的。能否詳細介紹一下你們在美國的買家群體？您認為你們的客戶會取代哪些潛在品牌？您認為你們正在從哪些品牌中搶佔市場份額？

We have some pretty good numbers for that. It's a really broad mix of cars. It's not -- they're not just premium sedan. In fact, I think we --

我們在這方面的數據相當不錯。我們的車型種類非常豐富，不僅限於高階轎車。事實上，我認為我們…

I believe we (Inaudible) that in our last earnings call, where we shared that --

我相信我們（聽不清楚）在上次收益電話會議上，我們分享了——

At the capital rate --

按資本利率—

Probably. That's right.

有可能。沒錯。

If you go back and look at our capital rates presentation --

如果你回頭看看我們的資本利率介紹——

Go ahead and just talk about some of the cars we're replacing.

繼續討論我們正在更換的一些汽車。

Yes. it's a wide range of cars. It's not like you can say, oh, it's a BMW-5 series or something like that. In fact, we're just pulling up the pie chart right now.

是的，車型種類繁多。你不可能說，哦，這是BMW5系之類的。事實上，我們現在只是在拉餅圖。

This is from the -- it's an ALG overview taking data from Polk, and they're showing sort of the -- it's essentially like the famous sedans and hybrids are the big ones. But seriously, like we've got -- there's no -- the largest one here is sort of on the order of 10%, 10%, 11%. A lot of people are buying our car instead of the Prius, but that's 10%. There's obviously things like the E-class are buying our car instead of the Leaf, or coming from -- I'm sorry, these are cars they're coming from. So it's like E-class, Prius, Leaf, the Highlander, E-5 series, Odyssey, Honda Odyssey has 4%, the Honda Odyssey going to Model S. Volvo XE90 is 4%. Volkswagen Jetta is 4%.

這是來自 Polk 的 ALG 概覽數據，他們顯示，基本上，著名的轎車和混合動力車是主要車型。但說真的，我們得到的是，這裡最大的車型大約是 10%、10%、11%。很多人買我們的車而不是普銳斯，但這個數字是 10%。顯然，像 E-Class 車主買我們的車而不是聆風，或者來自——抱歉，這些是他們的原產車。所以，E 級車、普銳斯、聆風、漢蘭達、E-5 系列、奧德賽、本田奧德賽佔 4%，本田奧德賽轉向 Model S。沃爾沃 XE90 佔 4%。福斯捷達佔 4%。

A pretty broad mix, overall.

總體而言，這是一個相當廣泛的組合。

Honda Civic is 3%. So it's really a pretty broad range. It's not just from the premium sedan segment.

本田思域的佔比為3%。所以，這個範圍真的很廣，不僅限於高階轎車市場。

Got it. That's helpful, and congratulations on good execution this quarter.

明白了。這很有幫助，恭喜你本季的良好執行。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay. We have time for one last question, please.

好的。我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

Our last question comes from Elaine Kwei from Jefferies. your line is open.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Elaine Kwei。您的線路已開通。

Hello, everyone. Thanks for squeezing me in. Now that you're beginning to ship internationally, could you talk a little bit about the thinking behind the pricing strategy for Europe and Asia? Are there any adjustments based on local incentives? Is it based on what the local market can bear, and would you expect margins to vary compared to the US? And then I'll just throw the second part in there, with the Supercharger network has really overcome the infrastructure obstacles for long distance driving, and does Tesla have any strategy for addressing the challenges for urban dwellers, especially in international markets where that might be more common? Thanks so much.

大家好，謝謝你們抽出時間。既然你們已經開始國際化運營，能否談談你們針對歐洲和亞洲的定價策略背後的考量？是否會根據當地的激勵措施做出調整？是否基於當地市場的承受能力？你預期利潤率會與美國市場有所不同嗎？然後我想補充第二點，超級充電網路確實克服了長途駕駛的基礎設施障礙。特斯拉有什麼策略來應對城市居民的挑戰，尤其是在城市居民可能更常見的國際市場？非常感謝。

Sure. The Tesla policy is to try to make the same amount of money on a car in any given market. So this is not a policy that -- in fact, we may be unique in this. I'm not sure if there's another automaker that does this. But we don't want to make more money off someone just because they're in another country. So I don't think that's the right thing to do. So for example, in China, it's quite common for manufacturers to mark up the cars in a pretty huge way. We will not be doing that, and we'll also try to be extremely transparent about our pricing. So you can take the US price and you could factor in logistics and any import taxes, and then there's maybe a 3% allowable for exchange rate movements, and then some incremental for any extra costs of doing business in that country, that would increase our overhead. But we try to be really transparent about that and keep trying to improve those costs over time. I guess the overarching principle here is that we don't want to rip anyone off. So you should assume the same margin in every country.

當然。特斯拉的政策是努力在任何特定市場上讓每輛車的利潤保持一致。所以這並非一項——事實上，我們在這方面可能獨一無二。我不確定是否有其他汽車製造商也這樣做。但我們不想因為客戶在其他國家就從他們身上賺取更多利潤。所以我認為這是不對的。例如，在中國，製造商大幅抬高汽車價格是很常見的。我們不會這樣做，而且我們會盡量保持定價的極度透明。你可以參考美國價格，考慮到物流和任何進口稅，然後可能還有3%的匯率波動，以及在該國開展業務的任何額外成本，這些都會增加我們的管理費用。但我們努力保持價格的透明化，並持續努力降低成本。我想，這裡最重要的原則是我們不想敲詐任何人。因此你應該假設每個國家的利潤率都相同。

That's great. And then is there any thoughts behind addressing the challenges for folks living in apartments or condos, where you might not have a personal garage? I could see this especially being an issue for the Gen 3 buyers, especially.

太好了。那麼，對於住在公寓或共管公寓裡、可能沒有私人車庫的人來說，你們有什麼應對措施嗎？我覺得這對第三代車型的買家來說尤其有問題。

Yes, absolutely. It's not a huge percentage of the market that has this issue, but it is something we need to address. So for -- and the toughest one is street parking. A lot of cities and municipalities are putting in charging infrastructure on the street. So we're working with them to get more of that established. And then on the -- for apartments and condos, for their garages there, we're forming -- or we actually have sort of loosely formed a group within our sales and service operations team that is able to work with the -- whoever is running the condo or apartment building and tell them what they need to do to install sockets.

是的，絕對是如此。雖然市場上有這個問題的比例不大，但我們必須解決這個問題。最棘手的問題是路邊停車。許多城市和市政當局正在建造路邊充電基礎設施。因此，我們正在與他們合作，建立更多這樣的設施。此外，對於公寓和共管公寓，我們正在組建——或者說，實際上我們已經在銷售和服務運營團隊中組建了一個鬆散的小組，該小組能夠與公寓或共管公寓樓的運營商合作，並指導他們如何安裝插座。

And I think it's going to be important long term is the ability to sort of load level or limit total power -- electricity power load in an apartment building. So if there's a lot of cars, you don't want to exceed the total power going to that building at any one time. So it's just kind of a peak power limiter that's able to communicate between the cars that are getting charged. And there's -- there are a few companies we're working with in that regard to deal with that peak power load in apartment buildings. You know, it really hasn't been, thus far, a constraint on our growth. So it's occupied a little bit of our attention. As that becomes -- next year, perhaps it will become a constraint on our growth, and then it's going to be more centrally in our attention.

我認為，長期來看，重要的是能夠控制負載水平或限制公寓大樓的總功率——也就是電力負荷。如果有很多汽車，你肯定不希望在任何時候超過進入公寓大樓的總功率。所以，它就像一個峰值功率限制器，能夠在充電的汽車之間進行通訊。我們正在與幾家公司合作，共同應對公寓大樓的尖峰電力負載問題。你知道，到目前為止，這還沒有真正限制我們的成長。所以，它只佔用了我們一點注意力。隨著這種情況的發生——明年，它可能會成為我們成長的限制因素，到那時，它就會成為我們更加關注的焦點。

That's great to hear on the international and the infrastructure front. Thank you so much, Elon.

很高興聽到你關於國際和基礎設施的消息。非常感謝，埃隆。

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to seeing you over the next quarter. And in fact, we'll be at Jefferies' Industrial Growth Conference in Manhattan next Monday. And on Tuesday, also in Manhattan, we'll be at JPMorgan's Auto Conference. So hope to see you all out on the road, and happy driving.

好的。感謝大家今天的參與。我們期待下個季度與大家見面。事實上，下週一我們將參加在曼哈頓舉辦的傑富瑞工業成長大會。週二，我們也會參加在曼哈頓舉辦的摩根大通汽車大會。希望在路上與大家相見，祝大家駕駛愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for participating in today's program. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們，先生們，感謝大家參加今天的節目。節目到此結束。請大家斷開連線。