特斯拉 (TSLA) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Motors First-Quarter 2013 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Jeff Evanson from Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加特斯拉汽車公司 2013 年第一季度財務業績問答電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。稍後，我們將進行問答環節，屆時將按照說明進行。提醒一下，正在錄製此電話會議。我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人，投資者關係部的 Jeff Evanson。請繼續。

Thank you, Patrick, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our First-Quarter Financial Results Question-and-Answer Conference Call. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman and CEO, and Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer. We announced our financial results for the first quarter shortly after the close of trading today. The shareholder letter, financial results, and webcast of this Q&A session are all available at our investor relations website at ir.teslamotors.com. Today's call is for your questions, and we will conduct the Q&A session live.

謝謝帕特里克，大家下午好。歡迎參加我們的第一季度財務業績問答電話會議。今天，特斯拉董事長兼首席執行官埃隆馬斯克和特斯拉首席財務官迪帕克阿胡賈加入了我的行列。今天收盤後不久，我們公佈了第一季度的財務業績。本次問答環節的股東信函、財務業績和網絡直播均可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.teslamotors.com 上查閱。今天的電話是為您提問，我們將進行現場問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Like last quarter, we will limit this call to 45 minutes.

與上個季度一樣，我們將此次通話時間限制為 45 分鐘。

During the course of this call, we may discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are predictions based on management's current expectations. Actual results or events could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent 10-K filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views as of today and should not be relied upon after today. We also disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. And now, Patrick, could we please have the first question?

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理層當前預期的預測。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 文件中提到的風險和不確定性，實際結果或事件可能存在重大差異。此類前瞻性陳述代表我們今天的觀點，不應在今天之後依賴。我們也不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務。現在，帕特里克，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Our first question comes from Ben Schuman from Pacific Crest Securities. Your line is open.

我們的第一個問題來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Ben Schuman。你的線路是開放的。

Thanks for taking the call, and congratulations on the great deliveries and results in the quarter. My first question is around the ZEV credits. You disclosed the amount of revenue in Q1. Can you say how much is implied in the Q2 gross margin guidance? And as part of that, what are some of the big gross margin drivers to get from that 5% level now excluding the ZEV revenue to 25%? And do you expect that 25% also without whatever positive impact from the lease accounting that you might see?

感謝您接聽電話，並祝賀本季度的出色交付和成果。我的第一個問題是關於 ZEV 學分的。您披露了第一季度的收入金額。你能說第二季度毛利率指導中隱含了多少嗎？作為其中的一部分，從現在不包括 ZEV 收入的 5% 水平到 25% 的一些主要毛利率驅動因素是什麼？您是否期望這 25% 也不會受到您可能看到的租賃會計的任何積極影響？

Okay, it looks like a few questions mixed in there. Yes, so we are expecting a decline in ZEV credit revenue for Q2, and then probably a fairly significant decline in Q3. And as I've said, like right now we're not expecting anything in Q4. That's not to say that -- there might be some revenue in Q4, but we're not counting on it. I can't give any more precision than that at this time.

好吧，看起來里面夾雜著幾個問題。是的，所以我們預計第二季度 ZEV 信貸收入會下降，然後第三季度可能會出現相當顯著的下降。正如我所說，就像現在我們對第四季度沒有任何期待。這並不是說——第四季度可能會有一些收入，但我們並不指望它。我現在不能給出比這更精確的了。

So bigger decline in Q3 than in Q2? Is it fair to say that.

第三季度的跌幅比第二季度大嗎？這樣說公平嗎。

Oh sure, of course, yes.

哦，當然，是的。

Okay. And then just one more from me. The $200 million in CapEx, can you talk about just what that's going to exactly, maybe how much of the gross margin improvement might be tied to additional capital expenditures?

好的。然後我又多了一個。 2 億美元的資本支出，你能談談這究竟會發生什麼嗎？毛利率的提高有多少可能與額外的資本支出有關？

Ben, Deepak here. Clearly, some of the CapEx is related to improvements we are making in house by bringing more equipment in and automating our processes, better results in gross margin improvement, and a portion of that is also new product development, and then another portion is the infrastructure development of the service centers, our stores, and the Supercharger network.

本，迪帕克在這裡。顯然，一些資本支出與我們通過引入更多設備和自動化我們的流程進行內部改進有關，更好地提高毛利率，其中一部分也是新產品開發，另一部分是基礎設施服務中心、我們的商店和增壓器網絡的發展。

Yes, and it's worth noting that -- and we're proud of our Q1 despite actually spending quite a lot of money on new service centers, expanding the Supercharger network, stores, and other things that obviously won't -- we won't need to keep doing. That's something that going to need to occur on an ongoing basis. Like we need to establish a service network in particular, for example.

是的，值得注意的是——我們為我們的第一季度感到自豪，儘管實際上在新的服務中心、擴展增壓器網絡、商店和其他顯然不會的東西上花了很多錢——我們贏了不需要繼續做。這是需要持續進行的事情。比如我們特別需要建立一個服務網絡。

Great. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Dan Galves with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Dan Galves。你的線路是開放的。

Thanks for taking my questions. First one, again regarding the gross margin, I did this -- the same simple math that Ben did to get to somewhere in the 5% to 6% gross margin -- automotive gross margin excluding the ZEV credits. If that's in the ballpark, it seems like you need to increase gross profit per unit by something in the $17,000 to $19,000 per unit by the end of the year. Wondering if you could give us the big buckets that you're targeting for that improvement, and how much is within your control, and how much might be -- you might need to up price concession from your suppliers if any.

感謝您提出我的問題。第一個，再次關於毛利率，我這樣做了——與 Ben 所做的同樣簡單的數學運算，以達到 5% 到 6% 的毛利率——不包括 ZEV 積分的汽車毛利率。如果這是在球場上，那麼您似乎需要在年底前將每單位的毛利潤增加 17,000 美元到 19,000 美元。想知道您是否可以向我們提供您針對該改進所針對的大桶，以及您可以控制多少，以及可能有多少——您可能需要提高供應商的價格讓步（如果有的話）。

Sure. Well, first, it's worth noting that when you see the gross margin for Q1, we're giving you the -- obviously, the gross margin average over the quarter. And so the gross margin at the end of Q1 was significantly better than at the beginning of Q1. So you may think, oh, we're starting from a base of 5% or 6%, but actually, we're starting from a base that's better than that. And then in terms of where the additional cost saves are coming from, it's a wide range of activities. Most of these have been put in place either in Q4 last year or in Q1, but it takes time for those actions to bear fruit. They don't happen instantly. And it's like this (inaudible) rate. It's improving at the cost of our logistics, improving, getting better deals from suppliers, design improvements. Design improvements are the ones that take the longest to come to fruition, which is why we're only confident of the 25% gross margin number in Q4, not sooner, is because there are a number of improvements that are design related, so you've got to finish the design. You've got to validate it and then put it into production. So --

當然。嗯，首先，值得注意的是，當你看到第一季度的毛利率時，我們給你的是——顯然，這個季度的平均毛利率。因此，第一季度末的毛利率明顯好於第一季度初。所以你可能會想，哦，我們是從 5% 或 6% 的基礎開始的，但實際上，我們是從比這更好的基礎開始的。然後就額外成本節省的來源而言，這是一系列廣泛的活動。其中大部分已經在去年第四季度或第一季度實施，但這些行動需要時間才能取得成果。它們不會立即發生。就像這個（聽不清）率。它以我們的物流為代價進行改進，改進，從供應商那裡獲得更好的交易，設計改進。設計改進是需要最長時間才能實現的，這就是為什麼我們只對第四季度 25% 的毛利率有信心，而不是更早，因為有許多與設計相關的改進，所以你必須完成設計。您必須對其進行驗證，然後將其投入生產。所以 -

And I'll add to that manufacturing process improvements, both in-house and at our suppliers.

我將在內部和我們的供應商處添加製造流程的改進。

Yes. A number of our suppliers have really done some impressive work on cost reduction. And for some others, they just didn't believe that we'd do these numbers, so they didn't quite tool up for this level of production because their internal predictions were that we would do, in some cases, 3,000 over the entire lifetime of the product. We're like, yes, we did that last quarter. So they can't believe that these projections are real. Then they actually tool up and are able to deliver a significant cost savings for part supply.

是的。我們的一些供應商在降低成本方面確實做了一些令人印象深刻的工作。而對於其他一些人來說，他們只是不相信我們會做這些數字，所以他們沒有為這種水平的生產準備好工具，因為他們的內部預測是，在某些情況下，我們會做 3,000 個產品的使用壽命。我們就像，是的，我們在上個季度做到了。所以他們無法相信這些預測是真實的。然後，他們實際使用工具並能夠顯著節省零件供應成本。

Okay. Got you. So just to follow up, the suppliers are cooperating with you in terms of reducing -- so are you still experiencing a lot of premium freight from suppliers that weren't ready to produce at volume? Are they cooperating with you in terms of the design improvements and redesigning the component? And then my second question relates to cash flow. What is -- what's causing the decline from $65 million of OCF in Q1 to the guidance of neutral in Q2, and if you could remind of us your minimum cash level. And thanks.

好的。得到你。所以只是跟進，供應商正在與您合作減少 - 那麼您是否仍然遇到來自尚未準備好批量生產的供應商的大量優質運費？他們是否在設計改進和重新設計組件方面與您合作？然後我的第二個問題與現金流有關。是什麼 - 是什麼導致 OCF 從第一季度的 6500 萬美元下降到第二季度的中性指導，如果你能提醒我們你的最低現金水平。謝謝。

So to answer your first question, our expedited freight is continuing to reduce every month that goes by as both our suppliers have additional capacity to meet our needs, and our production schedule is becoming much more stable, so it's all trending the right direction. And to that same point of Elon, where we ended with our freight costs at the end of Q1 was better than the average for the quarter, so it gives us comfort that -- or confidence that we'll continue to reduce our costs. Then in terms of our cash flows, we are mindful of the volumes. As you can see, we are projecting lower deliveries in North America since we have quite a few cars on the boat being shipped to Europe, and that consumes some degree of working capital which becomes part of our cash flow from operations, and that's a significant number. So when you combine the lower deliveries because you're producing for Europe and the fact we have these cars on the boat, that has an impact.

所以回答你的第一個問題，我們的加急運費每個月都在繼續減少，因為我們的供應商都有額外的產能來滿足我們的需求，而且我們的生產計劃變得更加穩定，所以這一切都朝著正確的方向發展。在 Elon 的同一點上，我們在第一季度末的貨運成本好於本季度的平均水平，因此它讓我們感到欣慰——或者相信我們將繼續降低成本。然後就我們的現金流而言，我們注意交易量。正如你所看到的，我們預計北美的交付量會減少，因為我們有很多汽車要運往歐洲，這會消耗一定程度的營運資金，這成為我們運營現金流的一部分，這是一個重要的數字。因此，當您將較低的交付量（因為您為歐洲生產）以及我們在船上擁有這些汽車的事實結合起來時，就會產生影響。

Okay. Perfect. Thanks a lot.

好的。完美的。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Aditya Satghare with Lazard Capital Markets. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Lazard Capital Markets 的 Aditya Satgare。你的線路是開放的。

I had two. First is on the manufacturing process. You talked about the number of manufacturing, how it was being reduce by 40%. Can you give us a sense of how much more room is there to go, and where does that stand in relation to your target? Then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個。首先是關於製造過程。你談到了製造數量，它是如何減少 40% 的。你能告訴我們還有多少空間可以去嗎？這與你的目標有什麼關係？然後我有一個跟進。

I think there's clearly room to go further. And there are a lot of activities in our manufacturing organization that are continuing in that direction. And then towards the second half of the year as we start to increase our production rate slightly further than our present levels, that will further add to the labor reduction on a per-unit basis.

我認為顯然還有進一步發展的空間。我們的製造組織中有很多活動正在朝著這個方向發展。然後到下半年，隨著我們開始將生產率提高到比目前水平略高的水平，這將進一步增加單位勞動力的減少。

Got it. Second question, on demand, when you talk about the 15,000 units per year, does that include both cash and lease demand? And could you also give us some more color on when we think about the 15,000 non-US units, what geographies do you expect that demand to come from? And maybe a little more color on the buyer base, who potentially could be buying these cars.

知道了。第二個問題，按需求，當您談到每年 15,000 個單位時，這是否包括現金和租賃需求？當我們考慮 15,000 台非美國單位時，您能否給我們提供更多信息？您預計需求來自哪些地區？可能會在購買這些汽車的買家基礎上增加一點顏色。

Yes, we actually expect probably most of our purchases long term will be financed purchases, which is actually normal for premium sedans. They're majority financed. And in fact, in our case, it might end up being a super majority because I think that the best way to appreciate the savings you get from gasoline is to look at it on a monthly basis. In the US, you maybe save $200 to $300 a month in gasoline relative to electricity costs if it's your daily driver. In Europe, obviously, that number can be double. It can maybe $500 a month if you're driving in Europe because the cost of gasoline is twice as much.

是的，我們實際上預計我們的大部分長期購買可能都是融資購買，這對於高檔轎車來說實際上是正常的。他們得到了大部分資金。事實上，在我們的例子中，它最終可能會成為絕大多數，因為我認為欣賞從汽油中節省的最好方法是每月查看一次。在美國，如果你每天開車，相對於電費，你每月可以節省 200 到 300 美元的汽油費。顯然，在歐洲，這個數字可能會翻倍。如果您在歐洲開車，每月可能需要 500 美元，因為汽油的成本是其兩倍。

So given that, I think we'll see over time, my guess is that it will be a similar majority financed in one form or another. And I believe that also opens up the potential -- the affordability of the car to a much broader -- a much larger number of people. And I think if, like, if our car was exclusively available for purchase and not via financing, I think that's maybe accessible to 1% or roughly 1 million US households. As a financed product with the right financing, a fully-optimized financing product, I think it's probably accessible to the top 10 million households. And then, of course, it depends on what percentage of those households will want to buy our car versus somebody else's. But I do think that it -- long term it's a primarily a financed product.

因此，鑑於此，我認為隨著時間的推移我們會看到，我的猜測是，它將以一種或另一種形式資助的類似多數。而且我相信這也打開了潛力——汽車對更廣泛的人的負擔能力——更多的人。而且我認為，如果我們的汽車是專門用於購買而不是通過融資購買的，我認為這可能會為 1% 或大約 100 萬美國家庭提供。作為一個融資合適的理財產品，一個全面優化的理財產品，我認為它大概是前1000萬戶可以使用的。然後，當然，這取決於這些家庭中想要購買我們的汽車而不是其他人的汽車的百分比。但我確實認為它 - 從長遠來看，它主要是一種融資產品。

And could you touch on non-US demand in terms of geographical mix and where it comes from?

您能否談一談非美國需求的地域組合及其來源？

Yes. Sure. Well, I think we'll see probably at least 10,000 units a year from demand in Europe and then at least 5,000 in Asia, but that could be, obviously, a much bigger number. China is kind of a wild card here. And it's worth noting that all of the cars -- all of the sales to date, including all the way through end of Q 2, is 100% North American.

是的。當然。嗯，我認為我們可能會看到歐洲每年至少有 10,000 台的需求，然後在亞洲至少有 5,000 台，但顯然，這可能是一個更大的數字。中國在這裡有點像一張外卡。值得注意的是，所有的汽車——迄今為止的所有銷售，包括一直到第二季度末的所有汽車，都是 100% 北美的。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你。

our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。你的線路是開放的。

Elon, I know I've asked you versions of this question before, and you guys have done a phenomenal job building what appears to be a viable business and a thriving business, although still early and at a risky part of the lifecycle of the Company. So to -- when you look at where your share price is and is likely to be tomorrow, and you think about the factors that are outside of your control, to make sure that all this great work your Team has done doesn't go to waste potentially for those factors outside of your control, can you share your thoughts on potentially socking in, padding the balance sheet a bit more with a capital increase that could further improve your chances to keep investing in the business and focusing on the product and not the economic cycle?

埃隆，我知道我以前問過你這個問題的不同版本，你們在建立看似可行的業務和蓬勃發展的業務方面做得非常出色，儘管仍處於早期階段，並且處於公司生命週期的風險部分.因此，當您查看您的股價在哪里以及明天可能在哪裡時，並考慮您無法控制的因素，以確保您的團隊所做的所有這些出色工作不會可能會浪費您無法控制的那些因素，您能否分享您對潛在入市的想法，通過增加資本來增加資產負債表，這可以進一步提高您繼續投資業務並專注於產品的機會，而不是經濟周期？

Sure. Well, we don't have any plans right now to raise funding. Essential, we're -- we expect to be -- or we were positive cash flow in Q1, and we expect to be relatively neutral on cash flow in Q2. But it's always possible that we could be opportunistic about raising a round, but there's no -- like we've spent no time on that at all, so if we were to do a round, it would be for the reasons that you mentioned, which is to ensure that if there was some unexpected supply interruption, some risk event, to essentially protect against a portion of your event that there could be some merit to doing a round.

當然。嗯，我們現在沒有任何籌集資金的計劃。重要的是，我們 - 我們預計會 - 或者我們在第一季度是正現金流，我們預計第二季度的現金流相對中性。但是我們總是有可能在進行一輪融資時投機取巧，但沒有——就像我們根本沒有在這方面花費時間一樣，所以如果我們要進行一輪融資，那將是出於你提到的原因，這是為了確保如果出現一些意外的供應中斷、一些風險事件，以從本質上保護你的事件的一部分，這些事件可能有一些優點來進行一輪。

That's very clear, Elon. Thank you. And just to follow up to an earlier on the geographic split. Don't know if you can give any color of the 21,000 that you expect this year, how much -- and by order of magnitude could come from Europe, and to confirm whether there would be any Asian numbers in this year's figure? Thank you.

這很清楚，埃隆。謝謝你。只是為了跟進早先的地理劃分。不知道您能否給出您今年預期的 21,000 的任何顏色，有多少 - 並且數量級可能來自歐洲，並確認今年的數字中是否會有任何亞洲數字？謝謝你。

Well, obviously, given that first half of year is entirely North America, that obviously puts a floor at 10,000. If we stopped shipping to North America on July 1, then we would still have something like 10,000 North American cars. So we're obviously not going to do that. So we're -- it's probably -- but do not take these numbers as final in any way. But if I'm asked to speculate, it's probably something like 15,000 in North America and 5,000 in Europe and 1,000 in Asia. But this is -- don't hold me to these numbers. I just want to --when I (inaudible), I also want to bracket with it the appropriate confidence interval. That's my best guess. Those numbers could be different.

好吧，顯然，鑑於上半年完全是北美，這顯然將下限設置為 10,000。如果我們在 7 月 1 日停止向北美髮貨，那麼我們仍有大約 10,000 輛北美汽車。所以我們顯然不會那樣做。所以我們 - 它可能是 - 但不要以任何方式將這些數字視為最終數字。但如果讓我推測，北美可能有 15,000 個，歐洲有 5,000 個，亞洲有 1,000 個。但這是 - 不要讓我拘泥於這些數字。我只想——當我（聽不清）時，我還想用它括起來適當的置信區間。這是我最好的猜測。這些數字可能不同。

Understood, Elon. Thank you very much.

明白了，埃隆。非常感謝。

The next question comes from Patrick Archambault with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Patrick Archambault。你的線路是開放的。

Great. Thank you very much, and yes, congratulations on a good quarter. Just on the sales number, if you are selling as you say above the 20,000-per-year mark right now, that implies about at least 55 a day while we were still able to get the sequenced reservation data in February. I believe that fell as low as the mid 30s. So it's come up quite a bit, which is obviously great. I was hoping you could put a little bit more color on that. How much of that is-- how much of an impact have you seen since the introduction of the new financed product? I'm sure there's some seasonality that we need to think about. And what's the contribution to some of the international sales in this acceleration? Thanks.

偉大的。非常感謝，是的，恭喜你取得了一個好季度。就銷售數字而言，如果您現在的銷售量超過每年 20,000 輛，這意味著每天至少有 55 輛，而我們仍然能夠在 2 月份獲得排序的預訂數據。我相信這一數字低至 30 年代中期。所以它出現了很多，這顯然很棒。我希望你能在上面加一點顏色。其中有多少——自推出新的融資產品以來，您看到了多大的影響？我確信我們需要考慮一些季節性因素。在這種加速中，對一些國際銷售的貢獻是什麼？謝謝。

Yes, our focus has been more on just operating efficiently as a Company and building cars that -- and consistently improving the gross margin as well as ensuring we have really good service. We're at okay service; we're working hard on making service great. I think -- we haven't really tried to push volume super hard yet because I think you need to make sure that the house is in order and the car is being made as efficiently as can be made before you try to push volume. So that's why we haven't tried to do that. I think there's potential for next year a fairly significant increase in volume as we really tap the -- test the depth of the demand that's out there. I think it's probably quite a bit higher than we had originally thought. But like I said, we don't want to just ramp volume and -- but not have taken care of gross margin or have bad service and just dump a ton of product on the market. I don't think that's the wisest course of action. But we'll still exceed, I think, what most people are expecting to us do.

是的，我們的重點更多地放在作為一家公司高效運營和製造汽車——並不斷提高毛利率以及確保我們提供真正優質的服務。我們服務還行；我們正在努力使服務變得更好。我認為 - 我們還沒有真正嘗試過非常努力地推動音量，因為我認為你需要確保房子井井有條，並且在你嘗試推動音量之前盡可能高效地製造汽車。所以這就是我們沒有嘗試這樣做的原因。我認為明年有相當大的銷量增長潛力，因為我們真正挖掘 - 測試那裡的需求深度。我認為它可能比我們最初想像的要高很多。但就像我說的那樣，我們不想只是增加銷量——但沒有考慮到毛利率或服務質量差，只是在市場上傾銷大量產品。我不認為這是最明智的做法。但我認為，我們仍將超越大多數人對我們的期望。

Okay. And if I could -- just one quick follow-up on that. Did you -- I know it's still early, but have you seen a pretty good pickup from the introduction of the new financed product?

好的。如果可以的話 - 只需對此進行快速跟進。你有沒有 - 我知道現在還為時過早，但你有沒有看到新融資產品的推出帶來了不錯的回升？

Yes, we've definitely seen a meaningful improvement in demand as a result of the financing project. That's had quite an effect on people. I mentioned in a -- in some prior talks I've given at -- like at Silver City we saw just a monster increase in demand when we went from selling people solar systems as a purchased product versus as a financed product. It was really an order of magnitude difference in demand as a financed product versus purchased. I'm not saying we'll see anything on that scale at Tesla, but I do think it's going to be significant in its effect.

是的，我們確實看到了融資項目帶來的需求顯著改善。這對人們產生了相當大的影響。我在之前的一些演講中提到過——比如在 Silver City，當我們將太陽能係統作為購買產品而不是作為融資產品出售給人們時，我們看到需求出現了巨大的增長。作為融資產品與購買產品的需求確實存在一個數量級的差異。我並不是說我們會在特斯拉看到如此規模的任何東西，但我確實認為它的影響將是顯著的。

That's helpful. If I can just squeeze one more if that's okay, just -- I know your guidance for the 25% doesn't include ZEV credits for the fourth quarter, but can you help us bracket that possibility that there might be some? Are you in talks with -- clearly, you have the volume to have further ZEV credits, obviously. Are you in talks with other manufacturers for these kinds of credits? Is there any kind of feeling of probability that you can give us that would allow us to handicap that?

這很有幫助。如果可以的話，我可以再擠一個，只是——我知道你對 25% 的指導不包括第四季度的 ZEV 積分，但你能幫助我們排除可能存在的可能性嗎？您是否正在與 - 顯然，您有足夠的數量獲得更多的 ZEV 學分。您是否正在與其他製造商就此類信用進行談判？你能給我們一種可能性的感覺嗎？

I would realistically handicap it at zero for the fourth quarter, which is -- we'll sell them if we can, but honestly, we anticipate saturating demand for ZEV credits probably in the third quarter. So maybe that's not true, but I wouldn't -- for purposes of modeling our financials, I would recommend assuming zero for ZEV credits in Q4.

我實際上會在第四季度將其限制為零，也就是說——如果可以的話，我們會出售它們，但老實說，我們預計對 ZEV 積分的需求可能會在第三季度達到飽和。所以也許這不是真的，但我不會——為了模擬我們的財務狀況，我建議在第四季度假設 ZEV 信用為零。

Great. Thanks a lot, guys.

偉大的。非常感謝，伙計們。

Our next question comes from Brian Johnson from Barclays. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布賴恩約翰遜。你的線路是開放的。

New topics. Your customer segmentation, but before that, just some more data points if you can provide them on the factory. Can you give us a sense of what the overtime hours or temp labor hours were, say run rate exiting December versus run rate March? I noticed your inventory was flat even though obviously revenue was way up. What you are doing in inventory, and then how does that lead to some of the gross margin improvement you're talking about?

新話題。您的客戶細分，但在此之前，如果您可以在工廠提供更多數據點。你能告訴我們加班時間或臨時工時間是多少，比如 12 月的運行率與 3 月的運行率？我注意到您的庫存持平，儘管收入明顯增加了。你在庫存方面做了什麼，然後這如何導致你所說的毛利率提高？

Sure. Well, people were working really at the 78-hour-a-week level at the end of Q4. Now, they're down under 58 hours a week. And we've also been able to release a lot of the temp labor that we had added to deal with manufacturing efficiencies. Deepak, did you want something on the inventory front?

當然。嗯，在第四季度末，人們真的每週工作 78 小時。現在，他們每週的工作時間不到 58 小時。而且我們還能夠釋放我們為提高製造效率而增加的大量臨時工。迪帕克，你想要庫存方面的東西嗎？

Yes, just to clarify, Brian, that our inventory was down by $30 million compared to end of the year despite the fact that our production rate was significantly up. And that's clearly as a result of us better managing our inventory and our production processes.

是的，布萊恩，只是澄清一下，儘管我們的生產率顯著提高，但與年底相比，我們的庫存減少了 3000 萬美元。這顯然是我們更好地管理庫存和生產流程的結果。

And on the marketing side, do you have a sense yet or data around what the other cars in your customers' garage are or what the other auto makers would call conquests, what they owned before versus what they're buying and trading, if any, associated with the Tesla. I know you don't do formal trade ins, but just what are the other cars that your customers typically own?

在營銷方面，您是否對客戶車庫中的其他汽車或其他汽車製造商所說的征服有什麼感覺或數據，他們以前擁有什麼與他們購買和交易的東西，如果有的話，與特斯拉有關。我知道您不進行正式的以舊換新，但您的客戶通常擁有的其他汽車是什麼？

Pretty wide range.

範圍很廣。

Yes. We haven't got a formal study across all of our customers, but we saw some study over a narrow time period, and it was very interesting to see. There was literally across the entire gamut of price points and brands. So we feel pretty good about that.

是的。我們還沒有對所有客戶進行正式研究，但我們在很短的時間內看到了一些研究，這很有趣。從字面上看，價格點和品牌的整個範圍都有。所以我們對此感覺很好。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Yes, it just seems to be based on fundamental affordability rather than any particular prior car that they have.

是的，它似乎只是基於基本的負擔能力，而不是他們擁有的任何特定的先前汽車。

Our next question comes from Elaine Kwei with Jefferies. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞的 Elaine Kwei。你的線路是開放的。

Hi, guys. Congratulations on the great progress there. I was actually wondering how development on the Model X is progressing at this point, if any of that $200 million CapEx is going to the X and if any R&D is there as well, and is the launch still for early 2014?

嗨，大家好。祝賀那裡取得的巨大進展。實際上，我想知道 Model X 目前的開發進展如何，這 2 億美元的資本支出是否會流向 X，是否還有任何研發，是否還在 2014 年初推出？

Well, we certainly are making progress on the Model X. Our focus in the second quarter is to finalize the design, the internal economics and the and the shape of the car. It isn't yet our top focus because our top focus is on improving the efficiency of Model S production and service, but it will become our top focus towards the end of this year. We are expecting to start production of Model X towards the end of next year rather than the beginning, though. But I think we've already stated that a few times. So I don't think that's -- just for everyone listening, that's not new news.

嗯，我們當然在 Model X 上取得了進展。我們第二季度的重點是完成設計、內部經濟以及汽車的形狀。這還不是我們的重點，因為我們的重點是提高 Model S 生產和服務的效率，但它將在今年年底成為我們的重點。不過，我們預計將在明年年底而不是年初開始生產 Model X。但我想我們已經說過幾次了。所以我不認為那是- 只是對於每個聽的人來說，這不是新消息。

All right. And actually, on the production efficiencies, with the raw material decline in the quarter, how much of that was volume versus just better purchasing strategy or negotiating with suppliers or benefit from lower commodities, and how much more benefit do you think there'd be to be gained there?

好的。實際上，在生產效率方面，隨著本季度原材料的下降，其中有多少是數量而不是更好的採購策略或與供應商談判或從較低的商品中受益，以及您認為會有多少收益在那裡獲得？

Well, I think the biggest chunk was volume. Clearly, as our cost per unit goes down, the absolute amount of inventory we carry for the same number of cars is coming down, but I think it was primarily us managing our inventory better, and that was contributing towards our lower working capital and improvement in our cash flows.

嗯，我認為最大的部分是數量。顯然，隨著我們每單位成本的下降，我們為相同數量的汽車攜帶的絕對庫存量正在下降，但我認為主要是我們更好地管理我們的庫存，這有助於我們降低營運資金和改進在我們的現金流中。

Okay. Great. And just last one real quick, but what does the -- do you have a picture of what the 60-kilowatt-hour mix looks like at this point, and are most people taking the Supercharger option on that? Thank you.

好的。偉大的。最後一個真的很快，但是--你有一張60千瓦時混合的照片嗎，大多數人都選擇了增壓器嗎？謝謝你。

Well, we do think that the mix of 60-kilowatt-hour is going to increase. We think more people will buy in. And long term, I think it's -- it might be a majority of people buy the 60-kilowatt-hour version. But thus far, it's been more like at the 35% level on the 60-kilowatt-hour car. But like I said, I think that's going to increase. And I think it's roughly 50% of people are enabling Supercharge at the time of purchase, but I think that number is likely to -- I think that may increase in the future. And then certainly, you can enable the Supercharger at any time after buying the car for a slightly higher amount. So I think over time most 60-kilowatt-hour cars will enable -- will have the Supercharger enabled either by the initial buyer or by a future buyer.

好吧，我們確實認為 60 千瓦時的混合會增加。我們認為會有更多的人購買。從長遠來看，我認為它可能是大多數人購買 60 千瓦時的版本。但到目前為止，它更像是 60 千瓦時汽車的 35% 水平。但就像我說的，我認為這會增加。而且我認為大約有 50% 的人在購買時啟用了 Supercharge，但我認為這個數字很可能 - 我認為未來可能會增加。當然，您可以在以稍高的價格購買汽車後隨時啟用增壓器。因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，大多數 60 千瓦時的汽車將啟用 - 將由最初的購買者或未來的購買者啟用增壓器。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

Our next question comes from Andrea James with Dougherty & Company. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dougherty & Company 的 Andrea James。你的線路是開放的。

Just to follow up a little bit, you put aside the Model X and the Gen3. You're focusing your resources on getting the Model S right and taking the costs out. And what metrics do you look at internally to where you can say, okay, this progress is satisfactory, let's start diverting more resources on to the next stage of Tesla?

只是為了跟進一點，您將 Model X 和 Gen3 放在一邊。您將資源集中在正確使用 Model S 並降低成本上。您在內部查看哪些指標可以說，好吧，這個進展令人滿意，讓我們開始將更多資源轉移到特斯拉的下一階段？

Well, we're already doing that. We're actually already diverting resources on to the next stage. So that'll will keep increasing through this quarter and next, and probably by sometime next quarter, middle or end of next quarter, our future products will be our priority because we'll be where we need to be, or at least we'll have done the things we need to do in order for the -- in order to achieve our gross margin numbers. And once we've -- it's because of the time taken from when you get the parts are ordered to arriving to being put in a car. Car gets built. Flow it to a customer, and we receive a check. There's a couple months in there. So even when we've made a cost improvement, it takes, call it, six to eight weeks for that cost improvement to actually show up in our quarterly -- in our financials. So even though -- you'd see that -- unless we really screw the pooch, you'll see the 25% gross margin number in Q4. The actions necessary to take that will actually have been completed in Q3, which means that we will, in Q3, have turned to Model X and other things as our priority. Sorry.

好吧，我們已經在這樣做了。我們實際上已經將資源轉移到下一階段。因此，這將在本季度和下一個季度繼續增加，可能到下個季度、下個季度中或下個季度末的某個時候，我們未來的產品將是我們的首要任務，因為我們將成為我們需要的地方，或者至少我們為了實現我們的毛利率，我們已經完成了我們需要做的事情。一旦我們已經 - 這是因為從您訂購零件到到達被放入汽車所花費的時間。汽車造好了。將其流向客戶，我們會收到支票。裡面有幾個月。因此，即使我們已經進行了成本改善，也需要六到八週的時間才能使成本改善真正出現在我們的季度 - 我們的財務中。所以即使 - 你會看到 - 除非我們真的搞砸了，否則你會在第四季度看到 25% 的毛利率。必須採取的行動實際上將在第三季度完成，這意味著我們將在第三季度將 Model X 和其他事情作為我們的優先事項。對不起。

No, thanks. That's helpful. And it does give us a sense of where the confidence is coming from. And just, like, on the lease accounting and on the financing program, can you give us a sense of maybe -- are you going to update your gas guidance? And what's the take rate that you're expecting on the financing program?

不，謝謝。這很有幫助。它確實讓我們了解信心的來源。就像，關於租賃會計和融資計劃，你能給我們一種可能的感覺——你會更新你的燃氣指南嗎？您對融資計劃的期望是多少？

So far, we are seeing about 25% take rate, but as Elon said, we'll continue to see an increase in the take rate.

到目前為止，我們看到大約 25% 的採用率，但正如埃隆所說，我們將繼續看到採用率的增加。

Yes, actually, the difference between our financing program and financing in general because a lot of customers will finance through an institution that's not us. I think the total number -- the percentage of cars being financed is probably 50%-ish, of which 50% of those are through the Tesla financing program in partnership with Wells Fargo and US Bank. So that's a way to think about out. But I do think that the percentage of finance purchases will increase, both Tesla financed and third-party financed.

是的，實際上，我們的融資計劃與一般融資之間的區別是因為很多客戶將通過不是我們的機構進行融資。我認為總數——獲得融資的汽車的百分比可能是 50%，其中 50% 是通過與富國銀行和美國銀行合作的特斯拉融資計劃。所以這是一種思考方式。但我確實認為，無論是特斯拉融資還是第三方融資，融資購買的比例都會增加。

Okay. Thank you. Then just one more. Does the word cancellation mean anything anymore now that you are changing how you do your reservation? Are you still taking a down payment and then locking them in? Can you just talk a little bit about how that's changed?

好的。謝謝你。然後就多了一個。既然您正在改變您的預訂方式，那麼取消這個詞是否還有任何意義？你還在拿首付然後把它們鎖起來嗎？你能談談它是如何改變的嗎？

Yes, so now we've changed the buy flow because previously it was an arduous buy flow. We were making it hard for people to buy car. So you put down a $5,000 reservation without actually configuring the car or knowing how much it cost, and then a lot of people would get shocked by, oh, if you add all the options you want, it's more expensive than you think, so then they cancel. So now, we don't do that, and since April 2, we've -- you now order the car with the configuration that you want. You've got two weeks to change that configuration or cancel, and then after two weeks, the deposit becomes nonrefundable and the configuration is locked. So that's how things are working now.

是的，所以現在我們改變了購買流程，因為以前這是一個艱鉅的購買流程。我們讓人們很難買車。所以你在沒有實際配置汽車或不知道它的成本的情況下就預訂了 5,000 美元，然後很多人會感到震驚，哦，如果你添加所有你想要的選項，它比你想像的要貴，那麼他們取消。所以現在，我們不這樣做了，自 4 月 2 日起，我們已經 - 您現在訂購了具有您想要的配置的汽車。您有兩週的時間來更改或取消該配置，然後在兩週後，押金將不可退還並且配置被鎖定。這就是現在的情況。

And the deposit, is it still --

還有押金，還是——

I should mention, we are thinking of reducing the initial deposit number because we don't really need the cash at this point, and when somebody puts down $5,000, they -- we've got to pay credit card processing fees on that, so it's an unnecessary cost. So we are thinking about reducing it from $5,000 to a similar number. We haven't made a final decision on that, but I think it probably makes sense just in terms of cost reduction.

我應該提一下，我們正在考慮減少初始存款數量，因為此時我們真的不需要現金，當有人支付 5,000 美元時，他們 - 我們必須為此支付信用卡處理費，所以這是不必要的成本。因此，我們正在考慮將其從 5,000 美元減少到類似的數字。我們尚未就此做出最終決定，但我認為僅就降低成本而言，這可能是有道理的。

That's helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝你。

Our next question comes from John Lovallo with Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自美林公司的 John Lovallo。你的線路是開放的。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the call. First question would be on lease accounting. Can you help us understand the potential effect on margins? And then also, I think you mentioned that there would be no cash flow impact on that, but wouldn't receivables naturally increase with this? Can you just help me understand that?

嗨，大家好。感謝您接聽電話。第一個問題是關於租賃會計的。您能幫助我們了解對利潤率的潛在影響嗎？然後，我認為您提到不會對此產生現金流影響，但應收賬款不會自然增加嗎？你能幫我理解嗎？

Yes. So no, receivables wouldn't increase because this is a retail sale. We get the full cash for selling this car up front. This is not a lease trade per se. The reason we are taking lease accounting is because we're offering this resale value guarantee at the end of it and for the price that technically --

是的。所以不，應收賬款不會增加，因為這是零售。我們提前出售這輛車獲得了全部現金。這本身不是租賃交易。我們採用租賃會計的原因是因為我們在結束時提供這種轉售價值保證，而且價格在技術上——

Yes, it's a pseudo lease. Yes.

是的，這是一個偽租約。是的。

So, yes, our receivables don't go up on our balance sheet. Our income statement is affected because we have to amortize our revenue and the cost over a period, 36 months in this case, for a retail value guarantee. So the interesting thing that's on the margin point of view as a percentage, there's really not a significant impact, but obviously the absolute dollar amount of the margin is lower since you're not recognizing the entire income up front.

所以，是的，我們的應收賬款不會在我們的資產負債表上增加。我們的損益表受到影響，因為我們必須在一段時間內（在這種情況下為 36 個月）攤銷我們的收入和成本，以保證零售價值。所以有趣的是，從利潤率的角度來看，以百分比表示，實際上並沒有顯著的影響，但顯然，保證金的絕對金額較低，因為您沒有預先確認全部收入。

Yes, actually, our margins slightly improve with financing versus a purchase because we share in the interest revenue that's generated by the Tesla finance partners.

是的，實際上，我們的利潤率隨著融資與購買相比略有提高，因為我們分享了特斯拉融資合作夥伴產生的利息收入。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

We get the full cash up front as well (inaudible). Actually, it's slightly more cash than if it was a purchase.

我們也預先獲得了全額現金（聽不清）。實際上，這比購買要多一些現金。

Okay. And then in terms of the 25% gross margin target in the fourth quarter, now, was this always an exit rate, the 25%, or is this a change in stance?

好的。然後就第四季度 25% 的毛利率目標而言，現在，這始終是退出率、25%，還是立場的改變？

No change, really. I'd say we're -- we think we'll be at 25% on average for all of Q4. I'm like -- I'm fairly certain we'll be at 25% before the end of Q4, and I think it's likely that we'll be at 25% on average in Q4.

沒有變化，真的。我會說我們 - 我們認為我們將在整個第四季度平均達到 25%。我想 - 我相當肯定我們將在第四季度末之前達到 25%，我認為我們很可能在第四季度平均達到 25%。

Okay. Thanks very much, guys.

好的。非常感謝，伙計們。

Patrick, unfortunately we probably only have time for only one more questioner.

帕特里克，不幸的是，我們可能只有時間再問一位提問者。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。你的線路是開放的。

This is Amy Carroll for Ryan Brinkman. Good quarter. I Just had a quick question regarding foot traffic in stores. Just wondering what you guys are seeing and if you could help us think about when these people come to the stores what you're seeing in percentage of conversion rate? Also, I think in the first quarter you mentioned that some of the higher cost was related to things not going out perfectly through the door, if you're still seeing that. And I know your servicing business is still early, but what are you seeing in terms of like usage and just giving us a little bit more color on that? That would be appreciated.

這是瑞恩·布林克曼的艾米·卡羅爾。好季度。我剛問了一個關於商店人流量的小問題。只是想知道你們看到了什麼，如果你們能幫助我們想想當這些人來到商店時你們看到的轉化率百分比是多少？另外，我認為在第一季度你提到的一些較高的成本與事情沒有完美地通過門有關，如果你仍然看到的話。而且我知道您的服務業務還處於早期階段，但是您在類似使用方面看到了什麼，只是給了我們更多的色彩？那將不勝感激。

Okay, I'm not sure I totally understand the question, but --

好吧，我不確定我是否完全理解這個問題，但是——

The first question was just basically, like when somebody comes through the door, how -- through your stores, like what you are converting in terms of actual sales.

第一個問題基本上是，比如當有人進門時，如何通過你的商店，比如你在實際銷售方面轉換了什麼。

Well, we have a huge number of people come through our stores.

好吧，我們有大量的人來我們的商店。

Usually in excess of 1 million people per quarter. That's for our new design stores that we have. So our stores are high --

通常每季度超過 100 萬人。這是針對我們擁有的新設計商店的。所以我們的商店很高——

Obviously, it's a low percentage conversion, yes. (laughter)

顯然，這是一個低百分比的轉換，是的。 （笑聲）

(Inaudible) bring a lot of people in and educate them about Tesla the brand and (inaudible). So that's our marketing strategy, which is different from a typical car company, and so just the typical metric of conversion of foot traffic is not exactly applicable.

（聽不清）讓很多人進來，讓他們了解特斯拉的品牌和（聽不清）。這就是我們的營銷策略，這與典型的汽車公司不同，因此僅僅典型的客流量轉換指標並不完全適用。

There's a lot of people that buy a T-shirt. Our apparel sales are actually not bad. I think we could actually do a lot more on that front. We actually have $1 millions in apparel sales, but without really trying hard. I think probably a better metric would be conversion after -- of a qualified lead after a test drive. And we're seeing something like a 25% conversion after a test drive, which is quite high.

有很多人買T卹。我們的服裝銷量其實還不錯。我認為我們實際上可以在這方面做得更多。我們實際上有 100 萬美元的服裝銷售額，但沒有真正努力。我認為更好的衡量標準可能是在試駕後獲得合格的潛在客戶之後的轉換。在試駕後，我們看到了 25% 的轉化率，這是相當高的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

A qualified lead after a test drive, yes.

是的，試駕後合格的潛在客戶。

Okay. And then just like on the service front, if you're seeing, like, what percentage of people using it? And what are some of the more common issues on that?

好的。然後就像在服務方面一樣，如果你看到，有多少人在使用它？在這方面有哪些更常見的問題？

Well, like I said at the service announcement, our service has been okay but not great, but it's improving swiftly with each passing week. And we did have some issues there with -- we've got quite a fancy door handle, and occasionally the sensor would malfunction on the door handle, so you'd pull on the door handle, and it wouldn't open. Obviously, it's quite vexing for a customer. But we've addressed that at root cause, and so essentially, the door handle incidents have gone to virtually zero since we introduced the new version of the door handle, and then we're retroactively addressing door handle issues, or addressing -- for the fleet that's on the road, we're fixing the door handles, which in a lot of cases just can be done with a remote firmware update. I think that the door handle has been an issue.

好吧，就像我在服務公告中所說的那樣，我們的服務還可以，但不是很好，但是每週都在迅速改善。我們確實遇到了一些問題——我們有一個非常漂亮的門把手，偶爾門把手上的傳感器會出現故障，所以你拉門把手，它就打不開。顯然，這對客戶來說是相當麻煩的。但是我們已經從根本上解決了這個問題，因此基本上，自從我們推出新版本的門把手以來，門把手事件幾乎為零，然後我們正在追溯解決門把手問題，或解決 -在路上的車隊，我們正在修理門把手，在很多情況下，這可以通過遠程固件更新來完成。我覺得門把手是個問題。

We've actually, ironically, had an issue with the 12-volt lead acid battery. There's a little 12-volt lead acid artillery battery that we bought from quite a reputable supplier, American company, who then outsourced it to China, who then outsourced it to Vietnam. And so we thought we were getting a fairly good battery, but by the time it had been outsourced to multiple levels, it turned out to be not so great. And so we had to -- a number of those batteries have had a much shorter life than expected, so that's caused some customer unhappiness. We've since implemented a few months ago a much better screening of the battery packs and now have a substantially improved pack going into cars.

具有諷刺意味的是，我們實際上遇到了 12 伏鉛酸電池的問題。我們從一家頗有聲望的供應商美國公司那裡購買了一個 12 伏的小型鉛酸火砲電池，然後將其外包給中國，然後再外包給越南。所以我們認為我們得到了一個相當不錯的電池，但是當它被外包到多個層次時，結果卻不是那麼好。所以我們不得不——其中一些電池的壽命比預期的要短得多，這引起了一些客戶的不滿。幾個月前，我們已經對電池組進行了更好的篩選，現在有了一個大大改進的電池組進入汽車。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will turn it back to Jeff Evanson for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把它轉回傑夫埃文森的閉幕詞。

All right, Patrick. Well, I don't have much to say. But thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and look forward to talking with you next quarter. Bye-bye.

好吧，帕特里克。好吧，我沒什麼好說的。但是感謝大家今天加入我們，並期待在下個季度與您交談。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's program. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的節目。程序到此結束。你們都可以斷開連接。