特斯拉 (TSLA) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Motors First-Quarter 2013 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Jeff Evanson from Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，大家好！歡迎參加特斯拉汽車2013年第一季財務業績問答電話會議。目前，所有參與者均處於聆聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時將提供相關說明。溫馨提示，本次電話會議正在錄音中。現在，我想將電話會議轉交給主持人、投資者關係部門的傑夫·埃文森 (Jeff Evanson)。請開始。

Thank you, Patrick, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our First-Quarter Financial Results Question-and-Answer Conference Call. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman and CEO, and Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer. We announced our financial results for the first quarter shortly after the close of trading today. The shareholder letter, financial results, and webcast of this Q&A session are all available at our investor relations website at ir.teslamotors.com. Today's call is for your questions, and we will conduct the Q&A session live.

謝謝派崔克，大家下午好！歡迎參加我們第一季財務業績問答電話會議。今天，特斯拉董事長兼執行長馬斯克和財務長迪帕克·阿胡加也一同出席了會議。我們在今天收盤後不久公佈了第一季的財務表現。致股東的信函、財務績效以及本問答環節的網路直播均可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.teslamotors.com 上取得。今天的電話會議旨在解答您的疑問，我們將進行現場問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Like last quarter, we will limit this call to 45 minutes.

與上一季一樣，我們將本次通話時間限制為 45 分鐘。

During the course of this call, we may discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are predictions based on management's current expectations. Actual results or events could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent 10-K filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views as of today and should not be relied upon after today. We also disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. And now, Patrick, could we please have the first question?

在本次電話會議中，我們可能會討論業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理階層目前預期的預測。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K文件中提及的風險和不確定因素，實際結果或事件可能與此有重大差異。此類前瞻性陳述代表我們截至今日的觀點，今日之後不應作為依據。我們也不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的任何義務。派崔克，現在我們可以提出第一個問題嗎？

Our first question comes from Ben Schuman from Pacific Crest Securities. Your line is open.

第一個問題來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Ben Schuman。您的電話已接通。

Thanks for taking the call, and congratulations on the great deliveries and results in the quarter. My first question is around the ZEV credits. You disclosed the amount of revenue in Q1. Can you say how much is implied in the Q2 gross margin guidance? And as part of that, what are some of the big gross margin drivers to get from that 5% level now excluding the ZEV revenue to 25%? And do you expect that 25% also without whatever positive impact from the lease accounting that you might see?

感謝您接聽電話，並祝賀您本季出色的交付和業績。我的第一個問題是關於零排放汽車積分（ZEV）的。您揭露了第一季的收入金額。您能否透露一下第二季毛利率指引中隱含的金額是多少？作為其中的一部分，有哪些主要的毛利率驅動因素，可以將現在的5%（不包括ZEV收入）提升到25%？您是否預期在不考慮租賃會計可能帶來的正面影響的情況下，也能達到25%的水平？

Okay, it looks like a few questions mixed in there. Yes, so we are expecting a decline in ZEV credit revenue for Q2, and then probably a fairly significant decline in Q3. And as I've said, like right now we're not expecting anything in Q4. That's not to say that -- there might be some revenue in Q4, but we're not counting on it. I can't give any more precision than that at this time.

好的，看起來這裡面夾雜著幾個問題。是的，我們預期第二季零排放汽車積分收入會下降，第三季可能還會大幅下降。正如我之前所說，目前我們對第四季沒有任何預期。這並不是說——第四季度可能會有一些收入，但我們不指望它。目前我無法給出更精確的預測。

So bigger decline in Q3 than in Q2? Is it fair to say that.

那麼第三季的降幅比第二季更大嗎？這樣說公平嗎？

Oh sure, of course, yes.

哦，當然，是的。

Okay. And then just one more from me. The $200 million in CapEx, can you talk about just what that's going to exactly, maybe how much of the gross margin improvement might be tied to additional capital expenditures?

好的。我還想問一個問題。 2億美元的資本支出，您能具體說說這筆支出的用途嗎？毛利率的提升有多少可能與額外的資本支出有關？

Ben, Deepak here. Clearly, some of the CapEx is related to improvements we are making in house by bringing more equipment in and automating our processes, better results in gross margin improvement, and a portion of that is also new product development, and then another portion is the infrastructure development of the service centers, our stores, and the Supercharger network.

Ben，我是Deepak。顯然，部分資本支出與我們內部的改善有關，例如引進更多設備、實現流程自動化，從而更好地提升毛利率。其中一部分用於新產品開發，另一部分用於服務中心、門市和超級充電網路的基礎設施建設。

Yes, and it's worth noting that -- and we're proud of our Q1 despite actually spending quite a lot of money on new service centers, expanding the Supercharger network, stores, and other things that obviously won't -- we won't need to keep doing. That's something that going to need to occur on an ongoing basis. Like we need to establish a service network in particular, for example.

是的，值得注意的是——儘管我們在新服務中心、超級充電網路擴展、門市建設以及其他一些顯然不會——我們不需要繼續做的事情上投入了不少資金，但我們對第一季的業績感到自豪。這些事情需要持續進行。例如，我們需要建立一個特別的服務網絡。

Great. Thanks a lot.

太好了。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Dan Galves with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Dan Galves。您的電話已接通。

Thanks for taking my questions. First one, again regarding the gross margin, I did this -- the same simple math that Ben did to get to somewhere in the 5% to 6% gross margin -- automotive gross margin excluding the ZEV credits. If that's in the ballpark, it seems like you need to increase gross profit per unit by something in the $17,000 to $19,000 per unit by the end of the year. Wondering if you could give us the big buckets that you're targeting for that improvement, and how much is within your control, and how much might be -- you might need to up price concession from your suppliers if any.

感謝您回答我的問題。首先，關於毛利率，我做了和Ben一樣的簡單計算，得出的毛利率在5%到6%之間——不包括零排放汽車積分的汽車毛利率。如果這個數字大致如此，那麼到年底，您似乎需要將每單位毛利提高1.7萬到1.9萬美元左右。您能否告訴我們，您為實現這一目標設定了多大的目標，以及您能控制多少，以及您可能需要提高供應商的價格優惠（如果有的話）。

Sure. Well, first, it's worth noting that when you see the gross margin for Q1, we're giving you the -- obviously, the gross margin average over the quarter. And so the gross margin at the end of Q1 was significantly better than at the beginning of Q1. So you may think, oh, we're starting from a base of 5% or 6%, but actually, we're starting from a base that's better than that. And then in terms of where the additional cost saves are coming from, it's a wide range of activities. Most of these have been put in place either in Q4 last year or in Q1, but it takes time for those actions to bear fruit. They don't happen instantly. And it's like this (inaudible) rate. It's improving at the cost of our logistics, improving, getting better deals from suppliers, design improvements. Design improvements are the ones that take the longest to come to fruition, which is why we're only confident of the 25% gross margin number in Q4, not sooner, is because there are a number of improvements that are design related, so you've got to finish the design. You've got to validate it and then put it into production. So --

當然。首先，值得注意的是，我們第一季的毛利率，顯然是本季的平均毛利率。所以第一季末的毛利率明顯高於第一季初。所以你可能會想，哦，我們的起點是5%或6%，但實際上，我們的起點比這還要高。至於額外的成本節約來自哪裡，我們採取了一系列措施。其中大部分措施已經在去年第四季或第一季實施，但這些措施需要時間才能見效，不會立竿見影。而且，它的速度（聽不清楚）是這樣的。成本節約的改善是以犧牲我們的物流、改善與供應商的合作、以及設計改進為代價的。設計改進需要最長時間才能見效，這就是為什麼我們只對第四季25%的毛利率有信心，而不是更快。這是因為有很多改進與設計有關，所以你必須完成設計。你必須驗證它，然後投入生產。所以——

And I'll add to that manufacturing process improvements, both in-house and at our suppliers.

我還要補充一點，製造流程的改進，包括內部和供應商的改進。

Yes. A number of our suppliers have really done some impressive work on cost reduction. And for some others, they just didn't believe that we'd do these numbers, so they didn't quite tool up for this level of production because their internal predictions were that we would do, in some cases, 3,000 over the entire lifetime of the product. We're like, yes, we did that last quarter. So they can't believe that these projections are real. Then they actually tool up and are able to deliver a significant cost savings for part supply.

是的。我們的一些供應商在降低成本方面確實取得了令人印象深刻的成果。而有些供應商則不相信我們能達到這些數字，所以他們並沒有為這種產量水準做好準備，因為他們內部預測，在某些情況下，我們會在產品的整個生命週期內生產3000個。我們回答說，是的，我們上個季度就做到了。所以他們不敢相信這些預測是真的。然後他們就真的做好準備，並且能夠大幅節省零件供應成本。

Okay. Got you. So just to follow up, the suppliers are cooperating with you in terms of reducing -- so are you still experiencing a lot of premium freight from suppliers that weren't ready to produce at volume? Are they cooperating with you in terms of the design improvements and redesigning the component? And then my second question relates to cash flow. What is -- what's causing the decline from $65 million of OCF in Q1 to the guidance of neutral in Q2, and if you could remind of us your minimum cash level. And thanks.

好的，明白了。接下來，供應商正在配合你們減少成本——那麼，你們是否仍然需要支付大量來自尚未準備好量產的供應商的溢價運費？他們是否在設計改進和重新設計組件方面配合你們？我的第二個問題與現金流有關。是什麼原因導致現金流從第一季的6,500萬美元下降到第二季的中性指導水準？能否請您提醒我們一下你們的最低現金水準是多少？謝謝。

So to answer your first question, our expedited freight is continuing to reduce every month that goes by as both our suppliers have additional capacity to meet our needs, and our production schedule is becoming much more stable, so it's all trending the right direction. And to that same point of Elon, where we ended with our freight costs at the end of Q1 was better than the average for the quarter, so it gives us comfort that -- or confidence that we'll continue to reduce our costs. Then in terms of our cash flows, we are mindful of the volumes. As you can see, we are projecting lower deliveries in North America since we have quite a few cars on the boat being shipped to Europe, and that consumes some degree of working capital which becomes part of our cash flow from operations, and that's a significant number. So when you combine the lower deliveries because you're producing for Europe and the fact we have these cars on the boat, that has an impact.

所以回答你的第一個問題，我們的加急貨運費用每個月都在持續減少，因為我們的供應商都有額外的產能來滿足我們的需求，而且我們的生產計劃也變得更加穩定，所以一切都在朝著好的方向發展。伊隆也提到了這一點，我們第一季末的貨運成本低於本季的平均水平，這讓我們感到安心——或者說有信心，我們將繼續降低成本。然後就我們的現金流而言，我們非常關注產量。正如你所看到的，我們預計北美的交付量會下降，因為我們有相當多的汽車在船上運往歐洲，這會消耗一定程度的營運資金，而這些營運資金將成為我們營運現金流的一部分，這是一個相當大的數字。所以，當你把為歐洲生產導致的交付量下降和船上有這些汽車的事實結合起來時，就會產生影響。

Okay. Perfect. Thanks a lot.

好的。太好了。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Aditya Satghare with Lazard Capital Markets. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自Lazard Capital Markets的Aditya Satghare。您的線路暢通。

I had two. First is on the manufacturing process. You talked about the number of manufacturing, how it was being reduce by 40%. Can you give us a sense of how much more room is there to go, and where does that stand in relation to your target? Then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個問題。首先是關於製造流程。您提到了製造環節的數量，並將其減少了40%。您能否告訴我們還有多少進步空間？這與您的目標相比如何？然後我還有一個後續問題。

I think there's clearly room to go further. And there are a lot of activities in our manufacturing organization that are continuing in that direction. And then towards the second half of the year as we start to increase our production rate slightly further than our present levels, that will further add to the labor reduction on a per-unit basis.

我認為顯然還有進一步提升的空間。我們製造部門正在朝著這個方向持續進行許多活動。到今年下半年，隨著我們開始將生產率略微提高到現有水平，這將進一步減少單位產品的人工成本。

Got it. Second question, on demand, when you talk about the 15,000 units per year, does that include both cash and lease demand? And could you also give us some more color on when we think about the 15,000 non-US units, what geographies do you expect that demand to come from? And maybe a little more color on the buyer base, who potentially could be buying these cars.

明白了。第二個問題，關於需求，您說的每年15,000輛，包括現金和租賃需求嗎？您能否再詳細說說，對於美國以外的15,000輛，您預期這些需求來自哪些地區？或者，您能否再詳細說說潛在購買這些汽車的買家群體？

Yes, we actually expect probably most of our purchases long term will be financed purchases, which is actually normal for premium sedans. They're majority financed. And in fact, in our case, it might end up being a super majority because I think that the best way to appreciate the savings you get from gasoline is to look at it on a monthly basis. In the US, you maybe save $200 to $300 a month in gasoline relative to electricity costs if it's your daily driver. In Europe, obviously, that number can be double. It can maybe $500 a month if you're driving in Europe because the cost of gasoline is twice as much.

是的，我們實際上預計，從長遠來看，我們購買的大部分車輛可能都是分期付款的，這對於高檔轎車來說很正常。它們大部分都是分期付款的。事實上，就我們的情況而言，最終可能會成為絕對多數，因為我認為，了解汽油節省的最佳方法是按月計算。在美國，如果你每天開車，相對於電費，你每個月可能在汽油上節省200到300美元。在歐洲，這個數字顯然會翻倍。如果你在歐洲開車，每月可能可以節省500美元，因為那裡的汽油價格是電費的兩倍。

So given that, I think we'll see over time, my guess is that it will be a similar majority financed in one form or another. And I believe that also opens up the potential -- the affordability of the car to a much broader -- a much larger number of people. And I think if, like, if our car was exclusively available for purchase and not via financing, I think that's maybe accessible to 1% or roughly 1 million US households. As a financed product with the right financing, a fully-optimized financing product, I think it's probably accessible to the top 10 million households. And then, of course, it depends on what percentage of those households will want to buy our car versus somebody else's. But I do think that it -- long term it's a primarily a financed product.

因此，有鑑於此，我想隨著時間的推移，我們會看到，我猜測，類似的大多數融資方式都會以某種形式出現。我相信，這也將開啟汽車的潛力——讓更廣泛的人群能夠負擔得起。我認為，如果我們的汽車只透過融資而非分期付款的方式購買，那麼大概只有1%或大約100萬個美國家庭能夠負擔得起。作為一款融資產品，如果採用合適的融資方式，一款經過全面優化的融資產品，我認為它很可能被最富裕的1000萬個家庭所接受。當然，這取決於這些家庭中有多少比例願意購買我們的汽車，而不是其他人的汽車。但我確實認為，從長遠來看，它主要是一種融資產品。

And could you touch on non-US demand in terms of geographical mix and where it comes from?

您能否從地理分佈和來源角度談談美國以外的需求？

Yes. Sure. Well, I think we'll see probably at least 10,000 units a year from demand in Europe and then at least 5,000 in Asia, but that could be, obviously, a much bigger number. China is kind of a wild card here. And it's worth noting that all of the cars -- all of the sales to date, including all the way through end of Q 2, is 100% North American.

是的，當然。嗯，我認為歐洲每年至少會有1萬輛的需求，亞洲每年至少會有5千輛，但顯然，這個數字可能會大得多。中國市場在這方面有點難以預測。值得注意的是，迄今為止，包括截至第二季末的所有銷售，所有車型都100%來自北美。

Great. Thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。您的電話已接通。

Elon, I know I've asked you versions of this question before, and you guys have done a phenomenal job building what appears to be a viable business and a thriving business, although still early and at a risky part of the lifecycle of the Company. So to -- when you look at where your share price is and is likely to be tomorrow, and you think about the factors that are outside of your control, to make sure that all this great work your Team has done doesn't go to waste potentially for those factors outside of your control, can you share your thoughts on potentially socking in, padding the balance sheet a bit more with a capital increase that could further improve your chances to keep investing in the business and focusing on the product and not the economic cycle?

Elon，我知道我以前問過你這個問題，你們出色地打造了一家看似可行且蓬勃發展的公司，儘管公司目前還處於早期階段，並且處於生命週期中風險較高的階段。所以，當你審視股價的當前水平以及明天的可能走勢時，你會考慮那些你無法控制的因素，以確保你的團隊所做的所有出色工作不會因為這些你無法控制的因素而白白浪費。你能否分享一下你的想法，透過增資來補充資產負債表，從而進一步提高你繼續投資公司、專注於產品而不是經濟週期的機會？

Sure. Well, we don't have any plans right now to raise funding. Essential, we're -- we expect to be -- or we were positive cash flow in Q1, and we expect to be relatively neutral on cash flow in Q2. But it's always possible that we could be opportunistic about raising a round, but there's no -- like we've spent no time on that at all, so if we were to do a round, it would be for the reasons that you mentioned, which is to ensure that if there was some unexpected supply interruption, some risk event, to essentially protect against a portion of your event that there could be some merit to doing a round.

當然。嗯，我們目前沒有任何融資計劃。關鍵在於，我們預期第一季的現金流為正，或正值，第二季的現金流預計會相對中性。但我們隨時都有可能進行一輪融資，但我們根本沒有在這方面投入任何時間。所以，如果我們要進行一輪融資，那將是基於您提到的原因，即確保如果發生意外的供應中斷或風險事件，能夠從本質上防範部分風險，這樣進行一輪融資才有其價值。

That's very clear, Elon. Thank you. And just to follow up to an earlier on the geographic split. Don't know if you can give any color of the 21,000 that you expect this year, how much -- and by order of magnitude could come from Europe, and to confirm whether there would be any Asian numbers in this year's figure? Thank you.

埃隆，你說得很清楚。謝謝。我只是想跟進一下之前關於地域分佈的問題。您能否透露今年預計的2.1萬名新員工的具體數量，以及其中有多少——以及具體數量級——可能來自歐洲？請確認一下，今年的數據中是否會有亞洲員工的數量？謝謝。

Well, obviously, given that first half of year is entirely North America, that obviously puts a floor at 10,000. If we stopped shipping to North America on July 1, then we would still have something like 10,000 North American cars. So we're obviously not going to do that. So we're -- it's probably -- but do not take these numbers as final in any way. But if I'm asked to speculate, it's probably something like 15,000 in North America and 5,000 in Europe and 1,000 in Asia. But this is -- don't hold me to these numbers. I just want to --when I (inaudible), I also want to bracket with it the appropriate confidence interval. That's my best guess. Those numbers could be different.

嗯，顯然，考慮到上半年全部在北美銷售，10,000 輛的下限顯然成立。如果我們在 7 月 1 日停止向北美發貨，那麼我們仍然會有大約 10,000 輛北美汽車。所以我們顯然不會這麼做。所以我們——很可能——但無論如何，不要把這些數字視為最終數字。但如果讓我推測的話，北美大概是 15,000 輛，歐洲是 5,000 輛，亞洲是 1,000 輛。但這是——不要把我限制在這些數字上。我只是想——當我（聽不清楚）時，我還想用適當的置信區間來表示。這是我最好的猜測。這些數字可能會有所不同。

Understood, Elon. Thank you very much.

明白了，埃隆。非常感謝。

The next question comes from Patrick Archambault with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Patrick Archambault。您的電話已接通。

Great. Thank you very much, and yes, congratulations on a good quarter. Just on the sales number, if you are selling as you say above the 20,000-per-year mark right now, that implies about at least 55 a day while we were still able to get the sequenced reservation data in February. I believe that fell as low as the mid 30s. So it's come up quite a bit, which is obviously great. I was hoping you could put a little bit more color on that. How much of that is-- how much of an impact have you seen since the introduction of the new financed product? I'm sure there's some seasonality that we need to think about. And what's the contribution to some of the international sales in this acceleration? Thanks.

太好了。非常感謝！是的，恭喜您取得了一個好的季度業績。就銷售數據而言，如果正如您所說，您目前的年銷量超過了2萬輛，那就意味著在我們2月份還能獲得有序預訂數據的時候，每天至少有55輛。我認為這個數字最低的時候只有30多輛。所以現在成長了不少，這顯然很棒。我希望您能更詳細地說明一下。自從推出新的融資產品以來，您看到了多大的影響？我相信我們需要考慮一些季節性因素。這次加速對一些國際銷售的貢獻是什麼？謝謝。

Yes, our focus has been more on just operating efficiently as a Company and building cars that -- and consistently improving the gross margin as well as ensuring we have really good service. We're at okay service; we're working hard on making service great. I think -- we haven't really tried to push volume super hard yet because I think you need to make sure that the house is in order and the car is being made as efficiently as can be made before you try to push volume. So that's why we haven't tried to do that. I think there's potential for next year a fairly significant increase in volume as we really tap the -- test the depth of the demand that's out there. I think it's probably quite a bit higher than we had originally thought. But like I said, we don't want to just ramp volume and -- but not have taken care of gross margin or have bad service and just dump a ton of product on the market. I don't think that's the wisest course of action. But we'll still exceed, I think, what most people are expecting to us do.

是的，我們一直以來更注重公司高效運營，生產優質汽車——持續提升毛利率，並確保提供真正優質的服務。我們的服務還不錯；我們正在努力提升服務品質。我認為——我們還沒有真正嘗試過大幅提升銷量，因為我認為在嘗試提升銷量之前，你需要確保公司內部秩序井然，並且汽車生產效率盡可能高。這就是我們還沒有嘗試這麼做的原因。我認為，隨著我們真正挖掘——測試市場需求的深度——明年的銷售可能會有相當大的成長。我認為這個成長幅度可能比我們最初的預期要高得多。但就像我說的，我們不想只提高銷售量——卻沒有考慮到毛利率，或是提供糟糕的服務，然後就把大量的產品傾銷到市場上。我認為這不是最明智的做法。但我認為，我們仍然會超越大多數人對我們的預期。

Okay. And if I could -- just one quick follow-up on that. Did you -- I know it's still early, but have you seen a pretty good pickup from the introduction of the new financed product?

好的。如果可以的話，我只想快速跟進。我知道現在還為時過早，但您是否看到新融資產品的推出帶來了不錯的成長？

Yes, we've definitely seen a meaningful improvement in demand as a result of the financing project. That's had quite an effect on people. I mentioned in a -- in some prior talks I've given at -- like at Silver City we saw just a monster increase in demand when we went from selling people solar systems as a purchased product versus as a financed product. It was really an order of magnitude difference in demand as a financed product versus purchased. I'm not saying we'll see anything on that scale at Tesla, but I do think it's going to be significant in its effect.

是的，由於融資項目，我們確實看到了需求的顯著改善。這對人們產生了很大的影響。我之前在銀城的一些演講中提到過，當我們把太陽能係統作為購買產品而不是融資產品出售時，需求量出現了驚人的增長。融資產品的需求量和購買產品的需求量之間確實存在著一個數量級的差異。我並不是說特斯拉也會出現類似的規模成長，但我確實認為其效果會非常顯著。

That's helpful. If I can just squeeze one more if that's okay, just -- I know your guidance for the 25% doesn't include ZEV credits for the fourth quarter, but can you help us bracket that possibility that there might be some? Are you in talks with -- clearly, you have the volume to have further ZEV credits, obviously. Are you in talks with other manufacturers for these kinds of credits? Is there any kind of feeling of probability that you can give us that would allow us to handicap that?

這很有幫助。如果可以的話，我可以再多問一點——我知道您給出的25%的指導不包括第四季度的零排放汽車積分，但您能否幫我們估算一下可能存在零排放汽車積分的可能性？您是否正在與其他製造商洽談——顯然，您有足夠的數量來獲得更多的零排放汽車積分。您是否正在與其他製造商洽談這類積分？您能否提供一些可能性，讓我們可以進行一些評估？

I would realistically handicap it at zero for the fourth quarter, which is -- we'll sell them if we can, but honestly, we anticipate saturating demand for ZEV credits probably in the third quarter. So maybe that's not true, but I wouldn't -- for purposes of modeling our financials, I would recommend assuming zero for ZEV credits in Q4.

我會比較現實地將第四季的零排放汽車積分設定為零，也就是說——如果可以的話，我們會出售這些積分。但說實話，我們預計零排放汽車積分的需求可能會在第三季達到飽和。所以，這也許不對，但出於財務建模的目的，我建議假設第四季度的零排放汽車積分為零。

Great. Thanks a lot, guys.

太好了！非常感謝大家。

Our next question comes from Brian Johnson from Barclays. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩·約翰遜。您的電話已接通。

New topics. Your customer segmentation, but before that, just some more data points if you can provide them on the factory. Can you give us a sense of what the overtime hours or temp labor hours were, say run rate exiting December versus run rate March? I noticed your inventory was flat even though obviously revenue was way up. What you are doing in inventory, and then how does that lead to some of the gross margin improvement you're talking about?

新話題。關於您的客戶細分，但在此之前，如果您能提供一些工廠的數據點，請問您能提供一些加班或臨時工的工時情況嗎？比如說，12月底的運行率與3月底的運行率相比如何？我注意到您的庫存持平，儘管收入顯然大幅成長。您在庫存方面做了哪些改進？這如何帶來您所說的毛利率提升？

Sure. Well, people were working really at the 78-hour-a-week level at the end of Q4. Now, they're down under 58 hours a week. And we've also been able to release a lot of the temp labor that we had added to deal with manufacturing efficiencies. Deepak, did you want something on the inventory front?

當然。第四季末，員工每週工作時間真的達到了78小時。現在，每週工作時間降到了58小時以下。而且，我們也解聘了大量為了提高生產效率而新增的臨時工。 Deepak，您在庫存方面有什麼需求嗎？

Yes, just to clarify, Brian, that our inventory was down by $30 million compared to end of the year despite the fact that our production rate was significantly up. And that's clearly as a result of us better managing our inventory and our production processes.

是的，布萊恩，需要澄清的是，儘管我們的生產力大幅提升，但庫存與年底相比下降了3000萬美元。這顯然是我們更好地管理庫存和生產流程的結果。

And on the marketing side, do you have a sense yet or data around what the other cars in your customers' garage are or what the other auto makers would call conquests, what they owned before versus what they're buying and trading, if any, associated with the Tesla. I know you don't do formal trade ins, but just what are the other cars that your customers typically own?

在行銷方面，您是否已經掌握或掌握了客戶車庫裡其他車輛的情況，或者其他汽車製造商所謂的「征服者」車輛的情況，以及他們之前擁有的車輛，以及他們正在購買和交易的車輛（如果有的話），與特斯拉相關的車輛有哪些？我知道您不進行正式的以舊換新，但您的客戶通常還擁有哪些其他車輛？

Pretty wide range.

範圍相當廣泛。

Yes. We haven't got a formal study across all of our customers, but we saw some study over a narrow time period, and it was very interesting to see. There was literally across the entire gamut of price points and brands. So we feel pretty good about that.

是的。我們還沒有對所有客戶進行正式研究，但我們看到了一些在短時間內進行的研究，這很有趣。研究範圍幾乎涵蓋了所有價位和品牌。所以我們對此感到非常滿意。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Yes, it just seems to be based on fundamental affordability rather than any particular prior car that they have.

是的，這似乎只是基於基本的負擔能力，而不是他們之前擁有的任何特定的汽車。

Our next question comes from Elaine Kwei with Jefferies. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞的 Elaine Kwei。您的電話已接通。

Hi, guys. Congratulations on the great progress there. I was actually wondering how development on the Model X is progressing at this point, if any of that $200 million CapEx is going to the X and if any R&D is there as well, and is the launch still for early 2014?

大家好。祝賀你們取得了巨大的進展。我其實想知道Model X的開發進度如何，2億美元的資本支出中是否有一部分會用於Model X，是否有研發投入？ Model X的上市時間是否仍定在2014年初？

Well, we certainly are making progress on the Model X. Our focus in the second quarter is to finalize the design, the internal economics and the and the shape of the car. It isn't yet our top focus because our top focus is on improving the efficiency of Model S production and service, but it will become our top focus towards the end of this year. We are expecting to start production of Model X towards the end of next year rather than the beginning, though. But I think we've already stated that a few times. So I don't think that's -- just for everyone listening, that's not new news.

嗯，我們在 Model X 的研發上確實取得了進展。我們第二季的重點是最終確定設計、內部經濟性以及車身造型。這還不是我們的首要任務，因為我們的首要任務是提高 Model S 的生產和服務效率，但這將在今年年底成為我們的首要任務。我們預計 Model X 將在明年年底開始生產，而不是明年年初。但我想我們已經說過幾次了。所以我認為這——對各位聽眾來說，這並不是什麼新鮮事。

All right. And actually, on the production efficiencies, with the raw material decline in the quarter, how much of that was volume versus just better purchasing strategy or negotiating with suppliers or benefit from lower commodities, and how much more benefit do you think there'd be to be gained there?

好的。實際上，就生產效率而言，隨著本季原物料價格的下降，其中有多少是產量帶來的，還是只是更好的採購策略、與供應商的談判，或從更低的商品價格中獲益？您認為還能獲得多少收益？

Well, I think the biggest chunk was volume. Clearly, as our cost per unit goes down, the absolute amount of inventory we carry for the same number of cars is coming down, but I think it was primarily us managing our inventory better, and that was contributing towards our lower working capital and improvement in our cash flows.

嗯，我認為最大的貢獻在於銷售量。顯然，隨著我們單位成本的下降，我們相同數量車輛的庫存絕對量也在下降，但我認為主要是因為我們更好地管理了庫存，這有助於我們降低營運資本，改善現金流。

Okay. Great. And just last one real quick, but what does the -- do you have a picture of what the 60-kilowatt-hour mix looks like at this point, and are most people taking the Supercharger option on that? Thank you.

好的。太好了。最後想快速問一下，目前60度電的充電組合狀況如何？大多數人會選擇超級充電樁嗎？謝謝。

Well, we do think that the mix of 60-kilowatt-hour is going to increase. We think more people will buy in. And long term, I think it's -- it might be a majority of people buy the 60-kilowatt-hour version. But thus far, it's been more like at the 35% level on the 60-kilowatt-hour car. But like I said, I think that's going to increase. And I think it's roughly 50% of people are enabling Supercharge at the time of purchase, but I think that number is likely to -- I think that may increase in the future. And then certainly, you can enable the Supercharger at any time after buying the car for a slightly higher amount. So I think over time most 60-kilowatt-hour cars will enable -- will have the Supercharger enabled either by the initial buyer or by a future buyer.

我們確實認為60千瓦時的車款組合會越來越多。我們認為會有更多人購買。從長遠來看，我認為大多數人可能會購買60千瓦時的車型。但到目前為止，60千瓦時車型的購買率大概在35%左右。但就像我說的，我認為這個比例會上升。我認為大約有50%的人在購車時會啟用超級充電功能，但我認為這個數字未來可能會上升。當然，你可以在購車後隨時啟用超級充電功能，但費用會略高一些。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，大多數60千瓦時的車型都會啟用超級充電功能，無論是最初的買家還是未來的買家。

Great. Thank you so much.

太好了。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Andrea James with Dougherty & Company. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自Dougherty & Company的Andrea James。您的電話已接通。

Just to follow up a little bit, you put aside the Model X and the Gen3. You're focusing your resources on getting the Model S right and taking the costs out. And what metrics do you look at internally to where you can say, okay, this progress is satisfactory, let's start diverting more resources on to the next stage of Tesla?

稍微跟進一下，您把Model X和第三代Model S擱置一旁，集中資源做好Model S並降低成本。您內部會考慮哪些指標，以便判斷“進展令人滿意”，然後開始將更多資源投入特斯拉的下一階段？

Well, we're already doing that. We're actually already diverting resources on to the next stage. So that'll will keep increasing through this quarter and next, and probably by sometime next quarter, middle or end of next quarter, our future products will be our priority because we'll be where we need to be, or at least we'll have done the things we need to do in order for the -- in order to achieve our gross margin numbers. And once we've -- it's because of the time taken from when you get the parts are ordered to arriving to being put in a car. Car gets built. Flow it to a customer, and we receive a check. There's a couple months in there. So even when we've made a cost improvement, it takes, call it, six to eight weeks for that cost improvement to actually show up in our quarterly -- in our financials. So even though -- you'd see that -- unless we really screw the pooch, you'll see the 25% gross margin number in Q4. The actions necessary to take that will actually have been completed in Q3, which means that we will, in Q3, have turned to Model X and other things as our priority. Sorry.

嗯，我們已經在這麼做了。實際上，我們已經將資源轉移到下一階段。所以，本季和下個季度，甚至可能到下個季度中期或末期，我們的未來產品將成為我們的首要任務，因為我們將達到目標，或者至少我們已經完成了實現毛利率目標所需的工作。一旦我們實現了目標，這是因為從訂購零件到組裝到汽車上需要時間。汽車製造完成後，交付給客戶，我們收到支票，這中間需要幾個月的時間。所以，即使我們實現了成本改進，也需要六到八週的時間才能真正體現在我們的季度財務報表中。所以，即使——你會看到——除非我們真的搞砸了，否則你會看到第四季25%的毛利率。必要的行動實際上將在第三季完成，這意味著我們將在第三季將Model X和其他產品作為優先事項。抱歉。

No, thanks. That's helpful. And it does give us a sense of where the confidence is coming from. And just, like, on the lease accounting and on the financing program, can you give us a sense of maybe -- are you going to update your gas guidance? And what's the take rate that you're expecting on the financing program?

不用了，謝謝。這很有幫助。這確實讓我們了解了信心的來源。關於租賃會計和融資計劃，您能否透露一下—您是否會更新天然氣指引？您預計融資計畫的收益率是多少？

So far, we are seeing about 25% take rate, but as Elon said, we'll continue to see an increase in the take rate.

到目前為止，我們看到的接受率約為 25%，但正如 Elon 所說，我們將繼續看到接受率的上升。

Yes, actually, the difference between our financing program and financing in general because a lot of customers will finance through an institution that's not us. I think the total number -- the percentage of cars being financed is probably 50%-ish, of which 50% of those are through the Tesla financing program in partnership with Wells Fargo and US Bank. So that's a way to think about out. But I do think that the percentage of finance purchases will increase, both Tesla financed and third-party financed.

是的，實際上，我們的融資計劃和一般的融資計劃有所不同，因為許多客戶會透過我們以外的機構進行融資。我認為整體而言，汽車融資的比例大概在50%左右，其中50%是透過與富國銀行和美國銀行合作的特斯拉融資計畫購買的。這是一種思考方式。但我確實認為，無論是特斯拉融資還是第三方融資，融資購買的比例都會增加。

Okay. Thank you. Then just one more. Does the word cancellation mean anything anymore now that you are changing how you do your reservation? Are you still taking a down payment and then locking them in? Can you just talk a little bit about how that's changed?

好的，謝謝。還有個問題。既然你們改變了預訂方式，「取消」這個詞還有意義嗎？你們還是先收取訂金，然後再鎖定預訂嗎？能簡單說說具體是怎麼變化的嗎？

Yes, so now we've changed the buy flow because previously it was an arduous buy flow. We were making it hard for people to buy car. So you put down a $5,000 reservation without actually configuring the car or knowing how much it cost, and then a lot of people would get shocked by, oh, if you add all the options you want, it's more expensive than you think, so then they cancel. So now, we don't do that, and since April 2, we've -- you now order the car with the configuration that you want. You've got two weeks to change that configuration or cancel, and then after two weeks, the deposit becomes nonrefundable and the configuration is locked. So that's how things are working now.

是的，現在我們改變了購車流程，因為之前的購車流程非常繁瑣。我們之前讓購車變得非常困難。你下單預訂了5000美元，卻沒有實際配置車輛，也不知道價格是多少。很多人會驚訝地發現，如果加上所有配置，價格比你想像的要高，於是他們就取消了訂單。現在我們不再這樣做了，從4月2日起，現在可以訂購你想要配置的車輛。你有兩週的時間來更改配置或取消訂單，兩週後，定金將不予退還，配置也將鎖定。這就是現在的運作方式。

And the deposit, is it still --

那麼押金是否仍然—

I should mention, we are thinking of reducing the initial deposit number because we don't really need the cash at this point, and when somebody puts down $5,000, they -- we've got to pay credit card processing fees on that, so it's an unnecessary cost. So we are thinking about reducing it from $5,000 to a similar number. We haven't made a final decision on that, but I think it probably makes sense just in terms of cost reduction.

我應該提一下，我們正在考慮降低初始存款金額，因為我們目前不太需要現金。如果有人存入5000美元，我們就得支付信用卡手續費，所以這是一筆不必要的成本。所以我們正在考慮將初始存款金額從5000美元降至類似的金額。我們還沒有最終決定，但我認為從降低成本的角度來看，這可能是合理的。

That's helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

Our next question comes from John Lovallo with Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自美林證券的約翰‧洛瓦洛 (John Lovallo)。您的電話已接通。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the call. First question would be on lease accounting. Can you help us understand the potential effect on margins? And then also, I think you mentioned that there would be no cash flow impact on that, but wouldn't receivables naturally increase with this? Can you just help me understand that?

大家好，感謝您接聽電話。第一個問題是關於租賃會計的。您能幫我們理解租賃會計對利潤率的潛在影響嗎？另外，我記得您提到租賃會計不會對現金流量產生影響，但應收帳款自然會增加嗎？您能幫我解釋一下嗎？

Yes. So no, receivables wouldn't increase because this is a retail sale. We get the full cash for selling this car up front. This is not a lease trade per se. The reason we are taking lease accounting is because we're offering this resale value guarantee at the end of it and for the price that technically --

是的。所以，應收帳款不會增加，因為這是零售銷售。我們預先獲得了出售這輛車的全部現金。這本身不是租賃交易。我們採用租賃會計的原因是，我們在租賃期結束時提供轉售價值保證，而且價格嚴格來說…

Yes, it's a pseudo lease. Yes.

是的，這是一份偽租約。是的。

So, yes, our receivables don't go up on our balance sheet. Our income statement is affected because we have to amortize our revenue and the cost over a period, 36 months in this case, for a retail value guarantee. So the interesting thing that's on the margin point of view as a percentage, there's really not a significant impact, but obviously the absolute dollar amount of the margin is lower since you're not recognizing the entire income up front.

所以，是的，我們的應收帳款不會在資產負債表上增加。我們的損益表會受到影響，因為為了確保零售價值，我們必須在一段時間內（在本例中是36個月）攤提收入和成本。所以，有趣的是，從利潤率的角度來看，以百分比計算，這實際上並沒有顯著的影響，但顯然，由於你沒有預先確認全部收入，利潤的絕對金額會較低。

Yes, actually, our margins slightly improve with financing versus a purchase because we share in the interest revenue that's generated by the Tesla finance partners.

是的，實際上，與購買相比，融資使我們的利潤率略有提高，因為我們分享了特斯拉金融合作夥伴產生的利息收入。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

We get the full cash up front as well (inaudible). Actually, it's slightly more cash than if it was a purchase.

我們預先拿到了全額現金（聽不清楚）。實際上，這比直接購買要多一點。

Okay. And then in terms of the 25% gross margin target in the fourth quarter, now, was this always an exit rate, the 25%, or is this a change in stance?

好的。那麼，就第四季25%的毛利率目標而言，這一直是個退出率，還是一個立場的改變？

No change, really. I'd say we're -- we think we'll be at 25% on average for all of Q4. I'm like -- I'm fairly certain we'll be at 25% before the end of Q4, and I think it's likely that we'll be at 25% on average in Q4.

真的沒有變化。我想說的是，我們預計第四季的平均成長率將達到25%。我相當確定，在第四季結束前，我們的成長率將達到25%，而且我認為第四季的平均成長率很有可能達到25%。

Okay. Thanks very much, guys.

好的。非常感謝大家。

Patrick, unfortunately we probably only have time for only one more questioner.

派崔克，不幸的是，我們可能只剩下時間再回答一位提問者了。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的Ryan Brinkman。您的電話已接通。

This is Amy Carroll for Ryan Brinkman. Good quarter. I Just had a quick question regarding foot traffic in stores. Just wondering what you guys are seeing and if you could help us think about when these people come to the stores what you're seeing in percentage of conversion rate? Also, I think in the first quarter you mentioned that some of the higher cost was related to things not going out perfectly through the door, if you're still seeing that. And I know your servicing business is still early, but what are you seeing in terms of like usage and just giving us a little bit more color on that? That would be appreciated.

我是艾米·卡羅爾，採訪瑞安·布林克曼。這個季度表現不錯。我只想問一個關於門市客流量的問題。我想知道你們目前的情況如何？能否幫忙分析一下，當這些人來到門市時，轉換率是多少？另外，我記得在第一季度，您提到過，成本上漲的部分原因是商品沒有完美地送達門市，如果您現在仍然看到這種情況的話。我知道你們的服務業務還處於起步階段，但就類似商品的使用情況而言，您目前的情況如何？能否再給我們詳細介紹一下？非常感謝。

Okay, I'm not sure I totally understand the question, but --

好的，我不確定我是否完全理解了這個問題，但是——

The first question was just basically, like when somebody comes through the door, how -- through your stores, like what you are converting in terms of actual sales.

第一個問題基本上是，當有人進門時，如何——透過你的商店，你在實際銷售方面進行了怎樣的轉換。

Well, we have a huge number of people come through our stores.

嗯，有大量的顧客來我們的商店。

Usually in excess of 1 million people per quarter. That's for our new design stores that we have. So our stores are high --

通常每季超過100萬人。這還不包括我們新開的設計店。所以我們的門市…

Obviously, it's a low percentage conversion, yes. (laughter)

顯然，轉換率很低，是的。 （笑聲）

(Inaudible) bring a lot of people in and educate them about Tesla the brand and (inaudible). So that's our marketing strategy, which is different from a typical car company, and so just the typical metric of conversion of foot traffic is not exactly applicable.

（聽不清楚）吸引大量人來，讓他們了解特斯拉這個品牌，（聽不清楚）。這就是我們的行銷策略，它與典型的汽車公司不同，所以只用客流量轉換率這個典型的指標來衡量並不完全適用。

There's a lot of people that buy a T-shirt. Our apparel sales are actually not bad. I think we could actually do a lot more on that front. We actually have $1 millions in apparel sales, but without really trying hard. I think probably a better metric would be conversion after -- of a qualified lead after a test drive. And we're seeing something like a 25% conversion after a test drive, which is quite high.

有很多人買T卹。我們的服飾銷售其實還不錯。我覺得我們在這方面還可以做得更好。我們的服裝銷售額實際上已經達到了100萬美元，但這並沒有真正反映出我們的努力。我認為更好的指標可能是試駕後的轉換率——合格潛在客戶的試駕後轉換率。我們看到試駕後的轉換率大約是25%，這個數字相當高。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

A qualified lead after a test drive, yes.

試駕後獲得合格的線索，是的。

Okay. And then just like on the service front, if you're seeing, like, what percentage of people using it? And what are some of the more common issues on that?

好的。那麼就服務方面而言，您觀察到有多少人使用它？其中有哪些常見問題？

Well, like I said at the service announcement, our service has been okay but not great, but it's improving swiftly with each passing week. And we did have some issues there with -- we've got quite a fancy door handle, and occasionally the sensor would malfunction on the door handle, so you'd pull on the door handle, and it wouldn't open. Obviously, it's quite vexing for a customer. But we've addressed that at root cause, and so essentially, the door handle incidents have gone to virtually zero since we introduced the new version of the door handle, and then we're retroactively addressing door handle issues, or addressing -- for the fleet that's on the road, we're fixing the door handles, which in a lot of cases just can be done with a remote firmware update. I think that the door handle has been an issue.

嗯，就像我在服務公告中說的，我們的服務還行，但不算特別好，但每週都在快速改善。我們確實遇到過一些問題——我們的車門把手設計得挺別緻，偶爾車門把手上的感應器會失靈，拉一下也打不開。顯然，這對客戶來說很麻煩。但我們已經從根本上解決了這個問題，所以自從我們推出新版車門把手以來，車門把手故障事件幾乎降到了零。之後，我們正在追溯解決車門把手問題，或者說，我們正在為上路的車隊修復車門把手，很多情況下，只需遠端韌體更新即可完成。我認為車門把手一直是個問題。

We've actually, ironically, had an issue with the 12-volt lead acid battery. There's a little 12-volt lead acid artillery battery that we bought from quite a reputable supplier, American company, who then outsourced it to China, who then outsourced it to Vietnam. And so we thought we were getting a fairly good battery, but by the time it had been outsourced to multiple levels, it turned out to be not so great. And so we had to -- a number of those batteries have had a much shorter life than expected, so that's caused some customer unhappiness. We've since implemented a few months ago a much better screening of the battery packs and now have a substantially improved pack going into cars.

諷刺的是，我們的12伏鉛酸電池其實出了點問題。我們從一家頗有信譽的美國公司購買了一款小型12伏鉛酸炮電池，這家公司後來將電池外包給中國，中國又將電池外包給越南。我們原本以為電池還不錯，但經過層層外包後，發現品質並不理想。我們不得不…許多電池的壽命比預期短得多，這導致了一些客戶不滿。幾個月前，我們對電池組進行了更嚴格的篩選，現在用於汽車的電池組品質有了顯著改善。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will turn it back to Jeff Evanson for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。接下來請 Jeff Evanson 致閉幕。

All right, Patrick. Well, I don't have much to say. But thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and look forward to talking with you next quarter. Bye-bye.

好的，派崔克。嗯，我沒什麼好說的。感謝大家今天的參與，期待下季與大家交流。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's program. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們，先生們，感謝大家參加今天的節目。節目到此結束。請大家斷開連線。