特斯拉 (TSLA) 2012 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Motors Corporation second-quarter financial results question-and-answer conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time.

女士們、先生們，大家好！歡迎參加特斯拉汽車公司第二季財務業績問答電話會議。目前所有與會者均處於聆聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時將提供相關說明。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the call over to Jeff Evanson, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想把電話轉給投資人關係主管傑夫‧埃文森。先生，您可以開始發言了。

Thank you Jamie, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Tesla Motors second-quarter 2012 financial results Q&A conference call. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman, CEO and Chief Product Architect, and Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer. We announced our financial results for the second quarter shortly after 1.00 p.m. Pacific Time today. The shareholder letter, financial results, and webcast of this Q&A are all available at the Company's investor relations website at ir.teslamotors.com.

謝謝傑米，大家下午好。歡迎參加特斯拉汽車公司2012年第二季財務業績問答電話會議。今天，特斯拉董事長、執行長兼首席產品架構師馬斯克和財務長迪帕克·阿胡加也出席了會議。我們在今天太平洋時間下午1點後不久公佈了第二季的財務表現。股東信、財務表現以及本問答的網路直播均可在公司投資人關係網站ir.teslamotors.com上查閱。

Today's call is for your questions. We will conduct the Q&A session live, so please press star one now if you would like to ask a question. During the course of this call we may discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are predictions based on management's current expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent 10-Q filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views as of today and should not be relied upon after today. We also disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

今天的電話會議旨在解答您的疑問。我們將進行現場問答環節，如果您想提問，請立即按星號 1。在本次電話會議中，我們可能會討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理階層目前預期的預測。由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的 10-Q 報告中提及的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能與此有重大差異。此類前瞻性陳述代表我們截至今日的觀點，不應在今天之後依賴。我們也不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的任何義務。

Now, Jamie, can we please have our first question?

現在，傑米，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Jesse Patel, Jefferies.

傑西‧帕特爾 (Jesse Patel)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Jesse, are you there? Jesse?

傑西，你在嗎？傑西？

Jesse, your line is open. Please check your mute button.

傑西，你的線路已接通。請檢查你的靜音按鈕。

All right, Jamie we will come back to Jesse. Why don't we take the next question please?

好的，傑米，我們接下來會再談傑西。我們接下來可以回答下一個問題了。

John Lovallo, Merrill Lynch.

美林證券的約翰·洛瓦洛。

Hey, guys, thanks for taking the call. A few questions for you here. Starting with developmental services revenue, was that $5 million in the quarter all Daimler revenue?

大家好，感謝您接聽電話。我有幾個問題想問您。首先是開發服務收入，本季的500萬美元全部來自戴姆勒的收入嗎？

Hi, this is Deepak. John, yes, it is all Daimler revenue, you're right about that.

嗨，我是迪帕克。約翰，是的，這全部是戴姆勒的收入，你說得對。

Would you say that, that $5 million, maybe a little bit higher million dollar, would be a good run rate over the next six quarters?

您是否認為，500 萬美元，或更高的百萬美元，會是未來六個季度的良好運行率？

It is going to vary by quarter because our overall program with Daimler is based on delivery of certain milestones and there are different revenues associated with it. We have indicated that it is going to be total close to $30 million and it'll be spread over the next six quarters roughly.

具體金額會因季度而異，因為我們與戴姆勒的整體專案是基於特定里程碑的交付，而相關的收入也會有所不同。我們先前表示，總額將接近3,000萬美元，大致分攤到接下來的六個季度。

Okay, great. In terms of Model S deliveries in the quarter, did you guys disclose how many were actually delivered?

好的，太好了。關於本季 Model S 的交付情況，你們有沒有透露實際交付了多少輛？

Yes, we delivered in the quarter 10 Model S. We produced a few more and our focus was primarily in providing those for our marketing activity so that we could have more ride and drive events, the Get Amped Tour, that we kicked off, so we really wanted to make sure we had a lot going on for our test tracks.

是的，我們在第 10 季交付了 Model S。我們又生產了一些，我們的重點主要是為我們的行銷活動提供這些車輛，以便我們能夠舉辦更多的試駕活動，也就是我們啟動的 Get Amped Tour，所以我們真的想確保我們的測試賽道上有很多活動。

Yes, and if I can probably preempt a question that you weren't going to ask it, somebody probably would, we made a total 40 of production vehicles so far.

是的，如果我可以搶先問一個你不會問的問題，那麼可能有人會問，到目前為止，我們總共生產了 40 輛量產車。

Okay.

好的。

And the production is ramping quite well actually, so it's stepping up, assuming that -- totally aware of how the production steps of. It actually steps up in a sort of geometric or exponential fashion. It is not linear. So we will see quite a dramatic increase in the production rate in the coming months.

事實上，產量成長相當不錯，也就是說，假設我們完全了解產量是如何變化的，產量就會逐漸上升。它實際上是以幾何級數或指數級的方式增長的，而不是線性的。因此，我們將在未來幾個月看到產量大幅提升。

That's helpful. Thank you. If I could just sneak a couple quick ones in here. In terms of the powertrain units for Toyota, how many units were actually produced this quarter?

這很有幫助。謝謝。我可以在這裡快速問幾個問題嗎？就豐田的動力總成單元而言，本季實際生產了多少台？

We produced roughly 100 units in this quarter and it is a combination of battery packs and drive units, but it was in that ballpark. It is again, a start of the ramp in terms of our production as we've indicated and we will continue to see some growth there.

本季我們生產了約100台，包括電池組和驅動單元，但產量大概約100台。正如我們之前所說，這再次標誌著我們產量的上升，並且我們將繼續看到產量的成長。

Great. Last question if I may. How many Roadster vehicles actually remain to be sold throughout the remainder of the year?

太好了。最後一個問題。今年剩餘時間裡，Roadster 的銷售量還有多少？

We have about 140, 130 to 140 vehicles left to sell and we expect to have those sold out by the end of the year.

我們還剩下大約 140 到 130 輛汽車待售，預計到今年年底將全部售罄。

Great, thanks very much guys.

太好了，非常感謝大家。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Dan Galves, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的丹‧加爾維斯 (Dan Galves)。

Good afternoon guys, thanks for taking my questions.

大家下午好，感謝你們回答我的問題。

Hi, Dan.

你好，丹。

How are you? In terms of the ramp and congratulations on launching the vehicle on time and the great reviews it has been getting. Just wondering if you can talk about what are the key challenges that you've seen or what are the key challenges to come in terms of making this exponential jump in production rate at some point in the quarter? Whether you're making last-minute tweaks in the vehicle or supplier issues or the process at Fremont, if you can take us through with the challenges are ahead in that?

您好嗎？關於量產，我祝賀這款車按時上市，並且獲得瞭如此高的評價。請問您能否談談，在本季實現產量的指數級成長方面，您認為面臨的主要挑戰是什麼？或者說，在未來的某個時間點，為了實現產量的大幅提升，您面臨哪些關鍵挑戰？無論是在最後一刻對車輛進行調整，還是供應商問題，又或是弗里蒙特工廠的流程，您能否向我們介紹未來面臨的挑戰？

Sure, absolutely. First of all it is worth noting it is actually normal in the auto industry for there to be an exponential growth in production. So it is not unusual. Ours is maybe going over a slightly longer period of time than is normally the case for gasoline cars because in our case we've got something like 97% or 98% of the components of the Model S are new, they are not in any other vehicle. And you can only make cars as fast as your slowest component and we want to make very sure that every car that comes off the line is as close to perfect as possible. In fact, I'm personally inspecting the cars whenever I can. I think it makes sense to take that approach and ensure that when customers receive a car it is as close to flawless as possible. And only grow the production ramp to the degree we are able to maintain an exceptional quality standard rather than to rush into things and then have a great deal of customer unhappiness.

當然，絕對是如此。首先，值得注意的是，在汽車產業，產量呈指數級成長其實很正常，並不罕見。我們的生產週期可能比汽油車的週期略長，因為Model S 97%或98%的零件都是全新的，其他車型都沒有。汽車的生產速度取決於最慢的零件，我們希望確保每輛下線的汽車都盡可能接近完美。事實上，我會​​盡可能親自檢查車輛。我認為採取這種方法是合理的，確保客戶收到的汽車盡可能接近完美。並且，我們只會在能夠維持卓越品質標準的前提下提高產量，而不是倉促行事，最終導致客戶大量不滿。

When we looked at our cash flow forecast whether we did -- we did a bunch more deliveries in the third quarter or basically if you move several hundred deliveries from third to fourth quarter one way or the other, it doesn't change our cash flow point. And we really need to optimize for our cash flow point. For a cash flow standpoint, and then on the other side making sure that our customers are ecstatic when they get their products. So I actually changed the production ramp to slow it down at the beginning and then ramp at a faster towards the end. I think it is the right decision. Time will tell but I think it is the sensible decision, something that I would wish that somebody did if I was a shareholder in the Company and I am.

當我們查看現金流預測時，無論是我們在第三季度增加了大量交付量，還是將幾百個交付量從第三季度推遲到第四季度，這都不會改變我們的現金流點。我們確實需要優化我們的現金流點。從現金流的角度來看，另一方面，確保我們的客戶在收到產品時感到欣喜若狂。因此，我實際上改變了生產增速，在開始時放慢速度，然後在結束時加快速度。我認為這是正確的決定。時間會證明一切，但我認為這是明智的決定。如果我是公司股東，我希望有人能這樣做，而我的確是。

That makes sense. Just to follow up on your comments on the cash flow. It looks like liquidity went down by $120 million or approximately in the quarter, you have 265 of liquidity available. It seems like the cash flow point I guess I don't understand what you're talking -- what you mean by the cash flow point doesn't change, it would seem like the longer it takes until you get to the higher production rate, the lower your cash balances would go. So if there's any way to kind of gauge whether the cash burn will slow in the third quarter and if you have a targeted year end level you could provide to us, that would be helpful.

這很有道理。只是想跟進一下你關於現金流的評論。看起來流動性在本季下降了1.2億美元左右，而你只有265%的可用流動性。現金流點似乎沒有變化，我不明白你在說什麼——你所說的現金流點似乎沒有變化，似乎達到更高生產率所需的時間越長，你的現金餘額就會越低。所以，如果有任何方法可以衡量第三季的現金消耗是否會放緩，並且你能提供一個年底的目標水準給我們，那將會很有幫助。

Dan, I think if this is a managed slowdown then you can manage cash and that's what we have done. We've deliberately upfront plant to do 500 units. The worst thing you can do is plan for 1,000 and then deliver 500, that's when you have the excess cash flow. This is a planned approach which helps us manage our cash. And as we've indicated in the shareholder letter that our expectation based on our plans is that we will achieve pretty close to free cash flow breakeven in Q4. And in Q3, we will see I would say roughly along the same lines as Q2, maybe slightly higher, but considering all of that and given our cash resources we feel pretty comfortable that we have sufficient liquidity to get to profitability next year.

丹，我認為如果這是一次可控的經濟放緩，那麼你就能管理現金，而這正是我們所做的。我們特意提前規劃了500台的產量。最糟糕的情況就是計劃生產1000台，然後只交付了500台，這樣你就有了多餘的現金流。這是一種有計劃的方法，有助於我們管理現金。正如我們在致股東信中所指出的，根據我們的計劃，我們預計第四季度的自由現金流將非常接近盈虧平衡。在第三季度，我認為我們的業績將與第二季度大致相同，甚至可能略高。但考慮到所有這些因素，以及我們的現金資源，我們非常有信心，我們擁有足夠的流動性來確保明年獲利。

Yes, if you move several hundred cars from one quarter to the next, it actually does not change out our cash flow point. That's driven more by working capital requirements at the end of the year. When we are producing thousands of cars, almost a couple thousand cars a month. So it seemed like why optimize for, why try to push product on customers that maybe are not as perfect as possible. If it does not actually yield anything tangible.

是的，如果你把幾百輛汽車從一個季度轉移到下一個季度，實際上並不會改變我們的現金流點。這更多是由年底的營運資金需求決定的。我們生產數千輛汽車，幾乎每個月都有數千輛。所以，如果產品實際上沒有帶來任何實際收益，為什麼要進行優化，為什麼要努力向客戶推銷可能不夠完美的產品呢？

Got you. I guess one more on the subject. It seems like different than most automaker' s, you I think recognize revenue when the vehicles deliver to the customer not when it is shipped off the factory to a dealer. So I guess what I'm getting at is you probably, if you're going to deliver 500 in the third quarter you're probably going to produce quite a bit more than that? I guess is that true? And then where do you expect inventory to be once you get to close to your targeted run rate of 5,000 quarter?

明白了。我想再問一個問題。這似乎與大多數汽車製造商不同，我認為你們是在車輛交付給客戶時確認收入，而不是在車輛出廠到經銷商時確認收入。所以我想說的是，如果你們打算在第三季交付500輛汽車，那麼你們的產量可能會遠遠超出這個數字？是這樣嗎？那麼，當你們接近季度5000輛的目標產量時，你們預計庫存會在哪裡？

I think it is probable that we will produce more than 500, but it is always a little tricky -- essentially if you imagine the production ramp is this quite sharp S-curve and you sort of, as you pick a point, an arbitrary point on that S-curve, on the steep course portion of the S-curve you can actually see a quite significant movement of units. It is hard to predict exactly where things will be on that steep portion of the S-curve, but I'm not sure it's relevant, because you get to the flat portion, the high portion of the S-curve, that point is much more predictable. And that is sort of the point we feel really confident about getting to in the fourth quarter. And I think it is the more relevant thing, like if you were to at present value of the cash flows and move the stuff around, it doesn't change the effective cap of the Company if one is doing the analysis correctly. So I think it is probable we will do that, but it is not certain, but even if, one way or the other, it is not going to make much of a difference.

我認為我們的產量可能會超過500輛，但這總是有點棘手——本質上，如果你把產量增長想像成一條相當陡峭的S曲線，當你在S曲線上任意選擇一個點，在S曲線的陡峭部分，你實際上可以看到產量有相當明顯的波動。很難準確預測S曲線陡峭部分的情況，但我不確定這是否重要，因為在S曲線的平坦部分，也就是高點，這個點更容易預測。而這正是我們對在第四季達到的預期目標非常有信心。我認為這才是更重要的，就像如果你以現金流的現值進行調整，如果分析正確的話，這不會改變公司的實際限。所以我認為我們很可能會這樣做，但並不確定，但即使如此，無論如何，也不會產生太大的影響。

Okay.

好的。

Elon, and Dan to your specific question, although we recognize revenue when the customer gets the car, the gap is not much, at least in the beginning. A lot of our customers are in California. Deliveries happen immediately and even if it is long distance, it's just a matter of a couple more days, a few days. It is not that dramatically different.

Elon，還有Dan，關於你提到的具體問題，雖然我們在客戶提車時就確認了收入，但差距並不大，至少在初期是這樣。我們的許多客戶都在加州。送貨是即時的，即使是長途運輸，也只需要多等幾天。其實差別並不大。

Okay, great. Thanks for all the helpful color on that. Appreciate it.

好的，太好了。謝謝你的幫助，非常感謝。

One thing I wanted to reemphasize, if people recall that one of the things I've been really emphatic about and those things in 2013 we will produce at least 20,000 units and that our gross margin will exceed 25%. I also said that we would start delivery at -- no later than July and those are the three things that I said we would -- that I was highly confident we would do. There are other things that are sort of nice to have and we'd like to do and maybe this will happen, but those are the important ones and we start deliveries in June so we're ahead of July. And I think we're going to exceed 20,000 units next year and exceed 25% gross margin. And both, those are the things that I think you should really hold me and Tesla to.

我想再次強調一件事，如果大家還記得我一直強調的一點，那就是2013年我們將至少生產2萬輛特斯拉，毛利率將超過25%。我還說過，我們將不遲於7月開始交付，以上三點是我之前說過的，我非常有信心我們能夠做到的。還有一些其他的事情我們也希望實現，也許最終會實現，但這些才是最重要的。我們將在6月開始交付，所以交付時間比7月提前。我認為明年我們的產量將超過2萬輛，毛利率也將超過25%。我認為，這兩點是你們應該督促我和特斯拉所實現的目標。

That's the flat portion of the --

這是平坦的部分——

That's the thing that really matters, yes. Absolutely.

是的，這才是真正重要的事。絕對是如此。

I agree, thanks a lot.

我同意，非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Ben Schuman from Pacific Crest Securities.

太平洋皇冠證券公司的本舒曼。

Hi, thanks, guys. Elon you talked about changing the ramp a little bit, can you specifically address what is driving that in terms of the quality control factors that you are focusing on with that revised timeline?

嗨，謝謝大家。伊隆，你剛才提到要稍微調整一下坡道，你能具體說說，在修改時間表的過程中，你關注的品質控制因素是什麼嗎？

I can talk a little bit about it although it is easy to get lost in the weeds because it is not as though there's any one big thing. It is a bunch, it's like a couple hundred little knick-knacky things. One example is there's the chrome plating of the door handle. We just couldn't meet our quality standards. There were little tiny pits in the plating that were unacceptable for us so we had to switch that to a different plating supplier. Right.

我可以稍微講一下，雖然很容易迷失方向，因為它不像是一個大問題。它有很多，就像幾百個小玩意兒。一個例子是門把手的鍍鉻。我們根本無法達到我們的品質標準。鍍層上有一些小坑，我們無法接受，所以我們不得不換一家鍍層供應商。對。

Things like the banana leaf interior trim, when I was shown a sample of that it looked good, but when I saw it in the car it did not look good, so I canned it. We are not going to deliver an option that doesn't look good and unfortunately, that was not clear until we saw it in a car which was late in the game. So there's some sort of things like that where we have to do last-minute maneuvering. The decisions are made absolutely with respect to ensuring that the product is the best possible product. That's what we are aiming at. Great companies are just build around great products, or services and so we have to super focused on ensuring that we have a product that's not slightly better but substantially better. I think we have that actually. If you look at the reviews, that's the response we are getting.

例如香蕉葉內飾，有人給我看樣品的時候覺得不錯，但裝在車上看效果就不怎麼樣，所以就放棄了。我們不會提供外觀不好的選配件，可惜的是，直到後期在車上看到效果才明白過來。所以有些事情我們必須在最後一刻做出調整。這些決定絕對是為了確保產品盡可能完美。這就是我們的目標。偉大的公司都是圍繞著優秀的產品或服務而打造的，所以我們必須高度專注於確保我們的產品不是略勝一籌，而是大幅提升。我想我們確實做到了。如果你看看評論，你會發現我們得到的回饋就是這樣的。

Okay, great. Can you address how cancellations are trending now that more and more of those finalize your order emails are going out?

好的，太好了。您能談談現在越來越多的「完成訂單」郵件發出後，取消訂單的趨勢如何嗎？

I think overall, Ben, we are fighting that cancellations as a percentage of our reservations is falling fairly steady the last few months. Clearly, customers have to make that decision, but we're not seeing anything which raises any red flags in our minds.

本，我認為總體而言，我們正在努力使過去幾個月取消預訂的比例保持穩定下降。顯然，客戶必須做出決定，但我們目前沒有看到任何值得警惕的情況。

Quite frankly, the thing that I get bugged about is not cancellations, it is people who want their car sooner and who want -- a day does not go by when we get several requests from quite senior people or celebrities or whatever saying isn't there some way they can move up on the list. That's not the cancellations that are concerned. We do not have a demand problem. Hopefully people can see that this is -- we obviously do not have a demand problem. One of the biggest reasons people don't put down a reservation payment for a Model S is because you have to wait a year almost, 10, 11 months. If you need a car, you need a car. So we actually need to focus our energies heavily on the production ramp and maintaining quality and achieving gross margin. Those are really our issues, it is demand generation. George is doing such an awesome job, I don't have to worry about that.

坦白說，讓我煩惱的不是取消訂單，而是那些想早點拿到車的人，他們想要——我們每天都會收到來自高層人士、名人或其他人的訂單，他們會說，難道他們就不能在訂單清單上排得更靠前嗎？我們關心的不是取消訂單。我們沒有需求問題。希望大家能夠明白這一點——我們顯然沒有需求問題。人們不願意支付Model S預訂款的最大原因之一是，你必須等待將近一年，也就是10到11個月。如果你需要一輛車，你就需要一輛車。所以我們其實需要把精力集中在提高產量、維持品質和實現毛利率。這些才是我們真正的問題，就是創造需求。喬治做得太棒了，我不用擔心這個。

Okay, great. Just one more, we've seen some concept cars from other manufacturers, high-performance EVs, things like that but nothing really close to production that compares to the Model S in terms of performance characteristics, things like that. Who do think from a competitive standpoint is closest to Tesla, especially on the powertrain side of things and how far behind are they?

好的，太好了。還有個問題，我們看過其他廠商的一些概念車、高性能電動車等等，但在性能方面，還沒有哪款量產車款能與 Model S 相提並論。從競爭角度來看，誰最接近特斯拉，尤其是在動力系統方面？他們落後多少？

Well, the next best powertrain's are the ones that we provide our partners. Then after that, you fall a long way. Then you're at the Leaf, I suppose, which obviously has some range issues and it's not a fun car to drive. So it sounds like -- I actually do think that Nissan should double down on their electric vehicle investment and just need to improve the product, it's not where it needs to be. But the way to think about the Model S is really not from the standpoint of how does it compare to other electric cars, that's not really how -- why people are buying our car, they're buying a car because they're looking at this and saying it's the best car. Would you look at the characteristics of the vehicle, whether it is aesthetics, safety, handling, performance, the user interface and the functionality and the technology in the car, fit and finish.

嗯，次優的動力系統是我們為合作夥伴提供的。再往前走，就差遠了。然後就到了聆風，我想，它顯然有續航里程問題，而且駕駛起來也不怎麼有樂趣。所以聽起來——我確實認為日產應該加倍投入電動車，只需要改進產品，它現在還沒有達到應有的水平。但看待Model S的方式真的不應該從它與其他電動車相比如何的角度來思考，這並非真正的原因——人們買我們車的原因，他們買車是因為他們看到了它，覺得它是最好的車。你會考慮車輛的特性嗎？無論是美觀度、安全性、操控性、性能、使用者介面、功能性、車內技術、組裝和外觀。

A whole dimension against which you would evaluate the car as a product, including taking all those characteristics and integrating them and saying, does this as an integrated system work because sometimes you can have a mixture of ingredients that don't come together into a good product. So really, people are buying our car because they think it is better than buying any other car. In that price range. They're selecting against cars in that price range, not electric cars.

在評估汽車產品時，需要考慮一個整體維度，包括整合所有這些特性，並判斷它作為一個整合系統是否有效，因為有時各種成分會混合在一起，無法形成一個好的產品。所以，實際上，人們購買我們的汽車是因為他們認為它比任何其他汽車都好。在這個價位範圍內。他們選擇這個價位範圍內的汽車，而不是電動車。

Great, thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Hey, guys. Going to go back to the point about the Model S, S-curve ramp from 3Q to 4Q. So you are at 10 cars a week now, I guess you will be averaging just over 40 a week in 3Q and then to ramp to an average of 375 a week in 4Q to kind of make the 5,000 full-year number. So I totally take on board your point about the shape of the S-curve, and it is more of like a switch than a ramp if I'm not mistaken. But in order to make sense of this I think at the vertical portion of the S-curve what would have to happen pretty, not only pretty quickly, but very early in the fourth quarter, so or else you will be implying an exit rate that would be way, way over 375 a week. Which would be implying I guess, maybe this is what you're implying, that you'd be doing way over a full-year clip of 20,000 a year. So is there any other way you can give us an idea, and if you can't I understand it, but what your exit rate might be in the third quarter or your entry rate in the fourth, or am I right to be thinking that, that, in order to do your 5,000, that switch, that geometric switch has to be pretty early in 4Q?

嘿，夥計們。回到關於Model S的問題，從第三季到第四季度，S曲線的產量呈現上升趨勢。現在你每週生產10輛，我猜第三季平均每週生產40多輛，然後到第四季平均每週生產375輛，差不多達到全年5000輛的目標。所以我完全同意你關於S曲線形狀的觀點，如果我沒記錯的話，它更像是開關而不是坡道。但為了理解這一點，我認為在S曲線的垂直部分，情況必鬚髮生得相當快，不僅要非常快，而且要在第四季度的初期發生，否則你暗示的退出率將遠遠超過每週375輛。我想，這意味著，也許這就是你暗示的，你的全年產量將遠遠超過2萬輛。那麼，您還有什麼其他方法可以告訴我們嗎？如果您不能，我理解，但是您的退出率可能在第三季度，或者您的進入率在第四季度，或者我的想法是否正確，為了實現 5,000 個，那個轉換，那個幾何轉換必須在第四季度的早期進行？

Yes, I think you're essentially right about counts. We will be at a higher production rate than 20,000 a year at the end of the year. And --

是的，我認為你關於數量的預測基本上正確。到今年年底，我們的年產量將超過2萬輛。而且——

Would that then level off though or is that kind to fill, is that something that would be then sustained in like a horizontal portion of that curve?

那麼，它會趨於平穩嗎？或者它會被填充嗎？它會像曲線的水平部分一樣持續下去嗎？

It depends on how demand is looking.

這取決於需求情況。

Okay.

好的。

Right now, demand is looking good.

目前，需求看起來良好。

Okay.

好的。

If demand is looking good, why level off?

如果需求看起來良好，為什麼會趨於平穩？

I agree 100%. So that is part of the implication is that it makes the 20,000 next year really like that, at least really you're emphasizing that with what you are implying?

我完全同意。所以，這部分暗示意味著明年的2萬名學生人數真的會達到這個數字嗎？至少你是在用暗示來強調這一點？

Yes, when I say at least I mean --

是的，當我說至少我的意思是—

You don't mean 20,001. Understood. Then my last question is given the enormous interest in the Model S, and also the very strong interest in the Model X and the chance, what looks like the opportunity to launch the Gen 3, at least according to some comments Franz made, maybe as early as 2015, earlier than many expected. This might accelerate some of your capital needs to give these products the full resources. So you throw in some uncertain economic conditions and can you see the rationale for potentially raising a bit more equity capital as sort of an insurance policy to make sure all this hard work, and great work, and momentum isn't unnecessarily put at too much risk due to events outside of the Company's control?

你的意思不是20001。明白了。那麼我的最後一個問題是，鑑於市場對Model S和Model X的巨大興趣，以及推出第三代Model 3的機會，至少根據弗朗茲的一些評論，可能最早在2015年就會推出，比很多人預期的要早。這可能會加速你們的部分資金需求，以便為這些產品提供充足的資源。所以，考慮到一些不確定的經濟狀況，你是否認為有必要籌集更多股權資本，作為一種保險措施，以確保所有這些辛勤工作、出色工作和發展勢頭不會因為公司無法控制的事件而面臨太大的風險？

Yes. I actually I think that there is arguably some merit to raising incremental funding just to protect against an unforeseen event. I do want to emphasize that our cash flow projections require no funding raise at all.

是的。實際上，我認為僅僅為了應對不可預見的事件而增加增量資金是有一定的道理的。我想強調的是，我們的現金流預測根本不需要增加資金。

Right.

正確的。

So if we do not raise any funding we can reach cash flow positive with decent margin. That's not to say that there isn't some merit in raising a little bit of funding maybe just to increase the cushion, that something we are debating internally and it is something we may do, but I do want to emphasize it is not something we have to do.

所以，即使我們不融資，我們也能實現正現金流，並獲得不錯的利潤率。這並不是說籌募少量資金沒有好處，或許只是為了增加緩衝。我們正在內部討論這個問題，也可能會這麼做，但我想強調的是，這不是我們必須做的。

Right. It is more -- it is a cushion, it would be for risk management and more opportunistic to kind of create, to kind of fuel even greater growth opportunity, is that how you'd pitch it?

對。它更像是一個緩衝，用於風險管理，也更有利於創造和推動更大的成長機會，您是這樣理解的嗎？

Yes. Exactly. In order for us to -- let's say in order for us to not raise any funding we would probably spend at a sub optimal rate on future programs.

是的，確實如此。為了不籌集任何資金，我們可能會在未來的專案上以低於最優的速度支出。

Right.

正確的。

So arguably you'd want to spend at the optimal rate and, yes.

因此可以說您希望以最佳利率進行消費，是的。

Would you say that it would be more of the early feedback on opportunity on the Model X that would potentially drive that opportunity, or is it the timing and opportunity on the Gen 3 or is it a bit of both or all the above?

您是否認為，對 Model X 機會的早期回饋可能會推動這一機會的出現，或者是 Gen 3 的時機和機會，或者兩者兼而有之，或者以上皆是？

Well, if we were to raise a small amount of money I emphasize that, the only two things we are considering are raising zero money or a small amount. It is not, there's not some third option. Then a very small amount of money, then it would be probably half of if for cushion value, and then half of it for future projects which would be the Model X and the Gen 3.

嗯，如果我們要籌集少量資金，我強調一下，我們唯一考慮的就是零融資或少量融資。這是不可能的，沒有第三個選擇。如果是極少量的資金，那麼大約一半會用於緩衝價值，另一半會用於未來的項目，也就是Model X和第三代Model 3。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

We have to come up with a better name than Gen 3 though.

我們必須想出一個比 Gen 3 更好的名字。

I'm sure you will. Get George on the case. (laughter). Thanks very much.

我相信你會的。讓喬治來處理這個案子。 （笑聲）非常感謝。

Suggestions welcome.

歡迎提出建議。

Carter Driscoll, CapStone Investments.

卡特·德里斯科爾（Carter Driscoll），CapStone Investments。

Good afternoon gentlemen. I was just kind of following up on the previous questions. Do you imagine you will disclose the ramp maybe say throughout the third quarter so we can get comfortable that you're going to be at that 375 pace above in the fourth quarter? Or how do you expect to communicate with the street that you're progressing along the lines that you are hoping for?

先生們，下午好。我只是在繼續之前的問題。您是否考慮過在第三節期間披露坡度信息，以便我們放心，第四節的時速會達到375英里以上？或者您打算如何向公眾傳達您正在按照預期路線前進？

I think we continue to have Investor visits here. Clearly, as deliveries progress you will get a sense of it.

我認為投資者會繼續來訪。顯然，隨著交付的進展，你會有所體會。

There will be cars on the road. That will be a huge clue.

路上會有車。這將是一個巨大的線索。

Right. (laughter). We'll definitely make sure over time we are communicating how things are progressing.

對。 （笑聲）。我們一定會確保隨著時間的推移，我們會溝通事情的進展。

Right. I think actually people could track it by just figuring out -- has cars that have just been delivered, and there you go.

對。我認為實際上人們可以通過弄清楚哪些車剛剛交付來追踪，然後就可以了。

Fair enough. Can you talk about your fast charging initiatives and any developments there?

好的。您能談談您們的快速充電計劃以及目前的發展嗎？

We're just finishing up some construction activity on that. It is looking like probably a September event but that's contingent on finishing some construction and getting all the permits and whatnot for the superchargers. But I'm really excited about that announcement. I think it is way cooler than anyone realizes. It is -- I think it is going to have a profound effect on people, on how the public sees electric vehicles.

我們剛剛完成了一些建設工作。看起來可能會在9月份舉行，但這取決於一些建設工作是否完成，以及是否獲得所有超級充電樁的許可等等。但我對這個消息感到非常興奮。我覺得它比任何人想像的都要酷。我認為它將對人們，對大眾如何看待電動車產生深遠的影響。

Okay. Can you talk --

好的。你能說說嗎——

There's going to be a few surprises there. Almost no one knows the full story, there'll be some cool things there.

那裡會有一些驚喜。幾乎沒有人知道故事的全部，那裡會有一些很酷的東西。

Okay. Good enough. We will wait for that announcement. Can you talk with us about the warranty. There's been a lot of discussion, myself, I've had discussions with some of your sales people, and I don't think people fully understand the warranty side for battery versus the vehicle itself. Can you just remind everyone what the battery and the vehicle warranty contains right now?

好的。好的。我們會等待公告。能和我們談談保固嗎？我自己也討論過很多次，也和你們的一些銷售人員討論過，我認為大家對電池保固和車輛保固的差異並不完全了解。您能不能提醒大家一下，電池和車輛保固目前都包含哪些內容？

Sure. For the battery warranty we essentially mirrored language that Nissan was using and I think maybe the Volt is also using some of the language, so which is to say that the battery is warrantied for 8 years. Any amount of miles you can really put on it, actually, I think, depending on which version. It's unlimited for the 300-mile range version, you just won't -- unless you torture yourself, you won't be able to put enough miles on that to matter. And I think it's 100,000, 150,000 something like that. For the 160-mile version, you really have to be doing a lot of traveling within city to do 100,000 miles in 8 years.

當然。關於電池保修，我們基本上沿用了日產的措辭，我想Volt可能也沿用了部分措辭，也就是說，電池保固8年。實際上，我認為續航里程數多少取決於具體版本。續航里程300英里的版本是無限的，除非你拼命追求，否則根本跑不完。我認為續航里程數應該是10萬到15萬英里左右。而續航里程160英里的版本，你必須在市內進行大量駕駛才能在8年內跑完10萬英里。

Where the pack energy level will be at that point, it is going to vary depending upon what sort of environment the pack has experienced and what sort of driver the person has been. In much of the same way as that of an engine after eight years is going to depend on whether someone was driving it hard or not and what sort of environment it saw. It will still be a very useable pack and we are expecting the packs to actually have a useful life that's somewhere around double the warranty level. People probably want to just replace it sooner than that, but these really last for a long time. And even our first-generation pack in the Roadster, we've got one customer in Europe who just passed the 200,000 kilometer mark, and he is not someone who drives the car slowly. In fact, he passed the 200,000 kilometer mark in a race.

電池組的能量水平會根據其所經歷的環境和駕駛員的駕駛習慣而變化。這和引擎八年後的運作情況類似，取決於駕駛是否用力駕駛以及當時所處的環境。它仍然非常實用，我們預計電池組的使用壽命大約是保固期的兩倍。人們可能想盡快更換電池組，但這些電池組的使用壽命確實很長。即使是我們第一代Roadster電池組，我們在歐洲也有一位客戶剛剛跑過了20萬公里，而且他開車的速度並不慢。事實上，他是在一場比賽中跑過了20萬公里。

Sorry to interrupt but that kind of leads to my next question. Is the relationship you have with Wells, and because of what you just stated, that you believe the battery pack is going to last twice what it's currently warrantied for. I'm assuming that the residual value, that price point given, there just aren't a lot of comparable vehicles to be able to set what the residual value is going to be and therefore, the leasing terms. But you feel comfortable that's not a sticking point as you suddenly saw people wanting to lease the vehicle even though you don't expect that to be the case for probably 12 to 18 months at a minimum?

抱歉打斷一下，但這引出了我的下一個問題。您與威爾斯的關係，以及您剛才所說的，是否讓您相信電池組的使用壽命將是目前保固期限的兩倍？我假設殘值，也就是給定的價格點，只是沒有太多可比較的車輛能夠設定殘值，從而確定租賃條款。但是，您覺得這不是癥結所在，因為您突然看到有人想租賃這輛車，儘管您預計至少在12到18個月內這種情況不會發生？

Right. Exactly. We don't need to lease a single car until maybe second half of next year at the soonest. We think it could just be only sales, but we have had many discussions about residual value. The thing that's important about residual value is just to make sure that the depreciation of the battery pack isn't -- it essentially matches that of the rest of the car. And if you had a gasoline car, after 10 years, it's on the order of 10% to 15% of its original value. So, it's depreciated almost down to nothing.

對，沒錯。我們最快也要到明年下半年才需要租賃一輛車。我們認為可能只是銷售，但我們已經就殘值進行過多次討論。殘值的關鍵在於確保電池組的折舊率與汽車其他零件的折舊率基本一致。如果你有一輛汽油車，10年後，它的折舊率大約是原始價值的10%到15%。所以，它的折舊率幾乎是零。

Do you expect that to be comparable or do you expect residual value to the higher?

您認為其具有可比性還是殘值較高？

I actually think it will be higher. Because the other thing is, once you put in a new pack into the car, it will actually be better than new from a range standpoint.

我實際上認為會更高。因為另一方面，一旦你把新電池組裝到車裡，從續航里程的角度來看，它實際上會比新的更好。

Okay.

好的。

You can continue to recognize the savings versus fueling your car with gas over the next 10 years, or whatever so you get huge benefits of that.

在未來 10 年內，您可以繼續認識到與用汽油為汽車加油相比所節省的費用，因此您將獲得巨大的利益。

Gasoline is probably not getting cheaper in the long run. It is, the price of gasoline is an upward sloping sine wave.

從長遠來看，汽油價格可能不會變得更便宜。汽油價格目前呈現向上傾斜的正弦波。

I agree with that. Have you guys actually booked any warranty expense in anticipation of having to replace any of the batteries?

我同意。你們真的為了更換電池預留了保固費用嗎？

Yes, with each car there's a warranty reserve.

是的，每輛車都有保固儲備。

Warranty reserve for each of the cars. (multiple speakers). That's related to the entire vehicle, not just to the battery. Just to clarify your other point with Wells Fargo, we are not offering lease financing. It's traditional retail financing, so residual values or leasing is not really an issue in our present offering with Wells Fargo.

每輛車都有保固儲備金。 （多位發言者）。這涉及整輛車，而不僅僅是電池。為了澄清您關於富國銀行的另一個問題，我們不提供租賃融資。這是傳統的零售融資，因此殘值或租賃在我們目前與富國銀行合作的服務中並不構成問題。

With Athlon it is.

Athlon 就是這樣。

Athlon is offering their own lease program in Europe, that's correct for corporate clients.

Athlon 在歐洲提供自己的租賃計劃，這對企業客戶來說是正確的。

Yes, so we did sign our first Model S leasing deal in Europe.

是的，我們確實在歐洲簽署了第一份 Model S 租賃協議。

My last question for before I pass on is just, have you seen a mix of reservations change as 2012 has unfolded, are you still seeing a similar rate of the Signature Series versus the other range models or has that stayed fairly consistent? Can you talk about your expectations may be about how that may change over time as well?

在我結束之前的最後一個問題是，隨著2012年的到來，您是否看到預訂量有所變化？ Signature系列的預訂量與其他系列車型的預訂量相比是否仍然保持相似，還是保持了相當的穩定？您能否談談您對預訂量未來可能如何變化的預期？

Absolutely. I think it is fortunate that the Signature Series has been sold out for months, for several months now. And not only is the Signature Series sold out, we have a long waiting list for people to get on the Signature Series and arguments about what place they are on the waiting list. We're sold out at EU on Signature Series as well.

絕對沒錯。我覺得Signature系列的門票已經售罄好幾個月了，真是幸運。不僅Signature系列門票售罄，我們還有很長的等候名單，人們還在爭論自己在等候名單上的排位。在歐盟，我們的Signature系列門票也售罄了。

Basic we all the reservations that we are getting now are for general production, and our customers when they make a reservation are basically just getting in the queue for a car, they're not locking in which battery pack size they are getting so that we will find out over time when they start to lock in their specific order.

基本上，我們現在收到的所有預訂都是用於一般生產的，我們的客戶在預訂時基本上只是在排隊等車，他們並沒有鎖定要獲得的電池組尺寸，因此，當他們開始鎖定具體訂單時，我們會隨著時間的推移發現這一點。

On the higher end than we expected, but that could change. It is hard to say as you get, to general production whether people are going to go to cars with fewer options, but the trend has been that they are picking more options than we expected.

比我們預期的要高，但情況可能會有變化。隨著量產車型的普及，很難說人們是否會選擇選擇較少的汽車，但趨勢是，他們選擇的選項比我們預期的要多。

I'm trying to get at, given you have a fairly significant amount of your cash in reservation payments, just trying to understand how that mix has potentially shifted over time. All right, I appreciate your time. I'll pass it along. Thank you.

鑑於您在預訂款中佔了相當大的比例，我想了解一下這種組合隨著時間的推移可能會發生哪些變化。好的，感謝您抽出時間。我會轉達您的意見。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Amir Rozwadowski, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的阿米爾·羅茲瓦多夫斯基（Amir Rozwadowski）。

Thank you very much and good afternoon folks. So just touching on the production ramp a bit more, Elon. Just want to clarify, so in the past you had said really that 20,000 production line is really focused on sort of one shift operating at one point in time. What type of flexibility do you have to either add additional personnel, overtime, or anything along those lines in order to meet your production targets?

非常感謝，各位下午好。伊隆，我想再談談產量提升的問題。我想澄清一下，您之前說過，2萬條生產線實際上專注於在某個時間點進行某種班次的運營。為了達到生產目標，你們在增加人員、加班或採取類似措施方面擁有什麼樣的彈性？

It is almost entirely on one shift. There are a few areas where we had some capital intense equipment where it is on two shifts. But that's easily addressed to expand volume. I think, in principle we could I think comfortably have a production rate -- that's 50% greater than 20,000. I hesitate to predict of when in the year we would be sort of comfortable maintaining that at a steady pace, but I think that's not, loot at it this way, at the end of next year I think that there's a pretty good likelihood that we're at least at the 30,000 unit a year run rate at the end of next year.

幾乎完全是單班制。有些地方，我們有一些資本密集設備，需要雙班制。但為了擴大產量，這個問題很容易解決。我認為，原則上，我們可以輕鬆實現年產量比2萬台高出50%的生產力。我很難預測一年中什麼時候我們能夠輕鬆地保持穩定的生產速度，但我認為不會。這樣算的話，到明年年底，我認為我們很有可能至少達到年產量3萬台的水平。

I think maybe more generally, Amir, we have flexibility. In the flexibility allows us to do a lot of things, overtime, add second shift, we can do a lot so I think whatever the target, it will be what they are depending on the demand, we have flexibility.

阿米爾，我認為更廣泛地說，我們擁有靈活性。這種靈活性使我們能夠做很多事情，例如加班、增加第二班，我們可以做很多事情。所以我認為無論目標是什麼，最終都會根據需求而定，我們擁有靈活性。

Yes, it is not totally willy-nilly. You do need to hire a second shift, you need to get them trained and you need to make sure you're making the quality on second shift, you don't want to have cars that are in the second shift that are worse than cars in the first shift. So it doesn't require a significant capital injection, in fact, miniscule capital injection to increase the rate which is great. So there's an upside opportunity there. But I don't want to trivialize how you do that, just to find good people and get them trained and make sure everything is good and you don't have the B-team on the second shift, that's very important.

是的，這並非完全隨意。你確實需要僱用第二班的員工，需要對他們進行培訓，並且需要確保第二班的質量，你肯定不希望第二班的車比第一班的車差。所以，不需要大量的資本注入，實際上，只需要極少量的資本注入就能提高生產力，這很好。所以這裡面有一個上升的機會。但我不想輕視你如何做到這一點，只需要找到優秀的人才，對他們進行培訓，確保一切順利，並且第二班不要安排B隊，這非常重要。

Certainly I appreciate that color. And if thinking about the demands on your cash for the near term, I was wondering when do you expect to start paying back the DoE loan?

我當然喜歡這個顏色。考慮到你近期的現金需求，我想知道你預計什麼時候開始償還能源部的貸款？

We start paying that back in December of this year.

我們從今年 12 月開始償還這筆款項。

We're required to be paid back in December. We will pay it back no later than December. We will start paying it back no later than December.

我們需要在12月還款。我們最遲會在12月還款。我們最遲會在12月開始還款。

Then its quarterly payments thereafter.

然後按季度付款。

Okay, so in terms of the demands on your cash that's factored into your expectations for where you will end fourth-quarter cash at in terms of a relatively okay position?

好的，那麼就現金需求而言，這是否已考慮到您對第四季末現金狀況相對良好的預期？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Then lastly if I may, we've certainly have seen a number of new stores open up in terms of building sort of retail points for you folks as well as building brand awareness. How should we think about the trajectory for OpEx over the course of perhaps this year and the duration of 2013? What is sort of the plan at this point?

好的。最後，如果可以的話，我們確實看到許多新店開業，這不僅是為了給你們建立零售點，也是為了提升品牌知名度。我們該如何看待今年以及2013年營運支出的走勢？目前的計劃是什麼？

Yes, I think, as we've indicated in a shareholder letter, certainly our R&D expense will drop as a lot of those costs move into cost of goods sold. And on the SG&A side as we opened stores, and there an acceleration there, we will see a moderate increase in our sales expenses, I would say -- in the 10% to 15% range or so as we add in more stores.

是的，我認為，正如我們在致股東的信中所指出的，我們的研發費用肯定會下降，因為許多研發成本都轉入了銷售成本。至於銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A），隨著我們開設更多門市，銷售費用會增加，我想說，隨著門市數量的增加，我們的銷售費用會適度增加，大概在10%到15%之間。

Stores are really kicking butt, George, is there any color you'd like to add to stores? We just opened the Third Street Promenade store on Santa Monica Boulevard, in people are in the LA area and want to get a sense for the latest Tesla store technology.

喬治，實體店真的很棒，你想為實體店增添什麼亮點嗎？我們剛在聖莫尼卡大道開了第三街長廊店，洛杉磯地區的人們想體驗特斯拉最新的實體店技術。

I think our goal with the stores, the rest of this year is to try to address some new markets. One of the markets that we really haven't solidified up until now is that Northeast corridor and our goal is to open several new stores in that corridor in order to hit one of the most densely populated areas of the country and try to do it in sort of an accelerated way. Because we think there's lots and lots of potential up there and what's really nice is we already have an embedded number of people there. The beauty of our model is that we already know where the first 12,000 cars are going, we know where customers who are interested in us live, so we can use that data to open up stores because if there's certain people there who are already with very little effort already reserving our car, think what happens if we actually do put some effort in there. And that's what we are doing this year, is we're hitting the hottest spots where we have really strong demand already in order to leverage that and that word-of-mouth from customer to customer and the way people, the people who have already gotten their car, they are like kids in a candy store with their car. They cannot wait to drive it, they cannot wait to take people to dinner. They cannot wait to take people out.

我認為，今年剩餘時間我們門市的目標在於開拓一些新市場。到目前為止，我們尚未真正穩固的市場之一是東北走廊，我們的目標是在那裡開設幾家新店，以便覆蓋美國人口最稠密的地區之一，並嘗試以某種加速的方式推進。因為我們認為那裡潛力巨大，而且真正令人欣慰的是，我們在那裡已經累積了大量客戶。我們模式的優勢在於，我們已經知道首批12,000輛汽車的目的地，也知道對我們感興趣的客戶住在哪裡，因此我們可以利用這些數據來開店。如果那裡已經有一些人毫不費力地預訂了我們的汽車，想想如果我們真的在那裡投入一些精力，會發生什麼。這就是我們今年的做法：我們瞄準那些需求旺盛的熱門地區，以便充分利用這些需求，並透過客戶之間的口耳相傳，讓那些已經擁有汽車的人，就像孩子們在糖果店裡看到自己的車一樣。他們迫不及待地想開著它，迫不及待地想帶人去吃飯，迫不及待地想帶人出去玩。

So when we put more stores in and amongst where those people are and they have a place to gather and share stories and stuff, that's what we are doing with the store growth this year. We're focusing on places where we know there's existing demand in order to leverage it more. A lot in the Northeast, we're going to open another one down in Miami Beach and the traffic through the stores has been incredible. I think you probably saw in the shareholder letter that year-to-date we've had over 1 million people go through the new design stores in North America. That's an incredible number. They keeping bringing more people, more friends and stuff like that so the stores are really performing well and I think by going after the Northeast corridor we will substantially make a difference a year and. I have a goal in this year that in the month of December we can have 1 million people go through our stores in one month. It is that crazy of a number. That's the kind of thing we are shooting for.

所以，當我們在這些人聚集的地方開設更多門市，讓他們有地方聚會、分享故事等等時，這就是我們今年門市擴張的策略。我們專注於那些我們了解的現有需求，以便更好地利用這些需求。我們在美國東北部有很多門市，例如我們將在邁阿密海灘再開一家，那裡的門市人流量非常大。我想你可能在致股東的信中看到，今年迄今為止，我們在北美的新設計門市已經接待了超過100萬人次。這是一個令人難以置信的數字。他們不斷帶來更多的人、更多的朋友等等，所以這些店的表現非常好。我認為，透過拓展東北走廊，我們每年都會取得顯著的進展。我今年的目標是，到12月份，我們的門市月客流量可以達到100萬人次。這是一個多麼驚人的數字。這就是我們努力的目標。

Well, the best of luck with that and thank you very much gentlemen for the color.

好吧，祝你好運，非常感謝先生們的顏色。

You're welcome. I think really Tesla is not a demand constrained Company. We are production constrained, so that must be our focus, but not at the expense of quality.

不客氣。我認為特斯拉實際上並非一家受需求約束的公司。我們受產量約束，所以產量必須成為我們的重點，但不能以犧牲品質為代價。

Patrick Archambault, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Patrick Archambault。

Hi, good evening and congratulations on the launch. I just had unfortunately a couple more questions on the ramp. I was wondering whether we could get just a little bit more color on sort of how that process is going to work? I take it, it sounds like from what you've said already so far that what's sort of holding things up in terms of, or one of the things that you are hitting to get to the next stage is really having to lock down decisions on certain components.

大家好，晚上好，恭喜發表會圓滿成功。很遺憾，我還有幾個問題想請教。我想，我們能否更詳細地了解這個過程的具體運作方式？從您目前所說的來看，我認為，阻礙專案進度的因素，或者說，為了進入下一階段，您正在努力解決的問題之一，實際上是必須確定某些組件的決策。

Not really decisions, it is ensuring both internal production quality and supplier quality. But we are not changing the product, for change sake certainly. If there is a change it is because we have to redesign improve manufacturing ability in a few cases here and there, but we are not -- the product, the physical product of course, from a software standpoint, we will continue to provide updates because Tesla is the only Company that does wireless updating of the cars' software and firmware. We are going to keep as customers will get their car and then they will find that new functionality and improvements have been uploaded overnight while the car was in their garage, so that will continue, but we are really on lockdown on any physical changes that aren't absolutely required.

這並不是真正的決策，而是為了確保內部生產品質和供應商品質。但我們不會為了改變而改變產品。如果有變化，那是因為我們必須重新設計，在某些情況下提高製造能力，但我們不會——當然是產品，實體產品，從軟體的角度來看，我們將繼續提供更新，因為特斯拉是唯一一家提供汽車軟體和韌體無線更新的公司。我們會繼續這樣做，當客戶拿到他們的車時，他們會發現新的功能和改進在車停在車庫裡一夜之間就上傳了，所以這種情況會繼續下去，但我們實際上會鎖定任何非絕對必要的物理更改。

Got you. Okay. I understand that the software piece can be sort of continuous, but it sounds like that there is still some components that are being made with preproduction tooling by some of your suppliers. And I guess the process of getting those finalized and with the right fit and finish is what helps you accelerate. Maybe you can just give a little bit of color, is there kind of a percentage in terms of components of the car where there's still some improvement to be made and a benchmark on that, that you might be able to think about as a guidepost for when that acceleration will take place?

明白了。好的。我知道軟體部分可以算是連續的，但聽起來你們的一些供應商仍在使用預生產工具製造一些組件。我想，最終完成這些組件並進行適當的配合和完成的過程有助於你們加速發展。或許您可以稍微解釋一下，就汽車組件而言，是否有一個百分比表明這些組件仍有待改進，並以此為基準，作為何時加速發展的參考指標？

Sure. There's several thousand unique products in the car. Probably 97% or 98% of them are fine. There's a couple percent that need to be addressed but you cannot ship a car that is 98% complete. So -- or where there's 2% of the element of the components are not of high-quality. So there's probably a couple dozen suppliers that, where we have some challenges and we've either got to fix the supplier, bring it internal or get a different supplier.

當然。汽車上有數千種獨特的產品。其中大概97%或98%是沒問題的。有百分之幾需要解決，但你不可能在98%完成的情況下交付一輛汽車。也就是說，如果零件中只有2%的品質不高，那你就沒辦法交付了。所以，可能有幾十家供應商會面臨一些挑戰，我們要嘛修復這個供應商，要嘛將其轉入內部，要嘛更換其他供應商。

Okay.

好的。

These are not big things. That is very important.

這些都不是大事，但非常重要。

Honestly, sometimes the most ridiculous silly things. It could be a piece of carpet or a bit of interior trim but that doesn't have a flush condition or there's a piece of bright molding on the dashboard which has, doesn't exactly follow -- where it has an intersection with another piece of bright molding, that intersection doesn't have the right press -- these little things that are extremely annoying. (laughter). But we just cannot be delivering cars where people with -- that don't have an outstanding fit and finish, of those couple dozen parts almost all of them are like interior sort of soft trim issues. It is not like there's something some important fundamental technology thing like, our a battery pack and powertrain is in great shape and chassis is in great shape and body and paint.

說實話，有時候這些小問題真是荒唐可笑。例如一塊地毯，或一小塊內飾，但沒能完全平整，又或者儀表板上的一塊亮條，跟另一塊亮條的接縫處壓合不嚴——這些小問題真的讓人煩透了。 （笑聲）。但我們就是無法交付那些組裝和塗裝不盡人意的汽車，這幾十個零件幾乎全是內裝軟裝飾的問題。這跟一些重要的基礎技術無關，例如我們的電池組和動力系統狀況良好，底盤、車身和油漆狀況良好。

We actually want to keep our finding and make sure that the gaps and fits are as close to perfection as physically will allow. But honestly, the vexing things are a bunch of seemingly trivial interior components. Perhaps that was just because we assumed that those things wouldn't be problematic and they were more problematic than we realized. We've since beefed-up our interior trim engineering group considerably and it's not going to be a problem in the future.

我們其實想保留我們的發現，確保間隙和配合在物理允許的範圍內盡可能接近完美。但說實話，真正讓人頭痛的是一些看似微不足道的內裝零件。或許只是因為我們假設這些零件不會出問題，但實際上它們比我們意識到的更棘手。之後，我們大幅增強了內裝工程團隊的實力，未來應該不會再出現這樣的問題了。

Okay, that's hopeful color. In the shareholder letter you also said that you had received all the dies, maybe we can talk about that. Is everything pretty much approved now and are you essentially at the stage where you are stamping all the components in-house at the right specs or is there still some importing of components while you fine tune some of these remaining dies?

好的，這聽起來很有希望。在致股東的信中，您也說已經收到了所有模具，也許我們可以談談。現在所有東西都基本上批准了嗎？你們現在基本上是在內部按照正確的規格沖壓所有組件的階段嗎？還是在對剩餘的模具進行微調期間，還需要進口一些組件？

Yes. We are able to stamp everything in-house at this point. We are still tweaking some, as mentioned, the gaps and how well things shut. We really want that to be, we really want to set a new industry benchmark for the accuracy of body fit. We already asked anyone in this regard and actually, we're going to keep iterating on that to the limit of what is physically possible, so, but them most people won't even notice these changes, unless they have a very discerning eye. It is not a problem.

是的。目前我們能夠在內部完成所有工序。如同先前所提到的，我們仍在調整一些縫隙和閉合效果。我們非常希望能夠實現這一點，我們非常希望在貼合度方面樹立新的產業標竿。我們已經就此諮詢過所有人，實際上，我們會在物理極限範圍內不斷改進。所以，大多數人甚至不會注意到這些變化，除非他們眼光敏銳。這沒問題。

Okay, terrific. That's all I had. Congratulations on getting out what is already a great car.

好的，太棒了。我就說這麼多。恭喜你開出了這輛已經很棒的車。

Thanks. It really maybe this is, it's one of my character, I tend to be pretty perfectionist about these things, and the goal is we want the car to be so accurate you can use it as a yardstick. You can use it as a calibration device, that's how accurate you want the car to be.

謝謝。這或許是我的性格使然，我在這方面比較追求完美，我們的目標是讓汽車精準到可以作為衡量標準的程度。你可以把它當作一個校準裝置，這就是你希望汽車達到的精準程度。

Terrific, thank you very much.

太棒了，非常感謝。

The next question comes from Ben Kallo from Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德公司的本‧卡洛 (Ben Kallo)。

Going back to the capital raise question. Bloomberg is already reporting that you guys might do a small capital raise, can you talk about price sensitivity since the stock is trading near where your last second was done and you've created significant value since then in the Company. And also around timing, a lot of the questions here are focused on the ramp so would you do a capital raise after that ramp was proved out?

回到融資問題。彭博社已經報道你們可能會進行小規模融資，能否談談價格敏感度？畢竟，目前股價接近你們上次交易的價格，而且自那以後，你們為公司創造了巨大的價值。此外，關於時機，很多問題都集中在融資的上升上，所以在融資成功後，你們還會進行融資嗎？

I think it is best we don't comment on any of these. I think as Elon said, we will just opportunistically pursue at the right time and I think that's probably the best way.

我認為最好不要對這些發表評論。正如馬斯克所說，我們只會在適當的時機抓住機會，這或許是最好的方式。

But I'd like to exclude the very immediate future. We will not be raising money in the very immediate future.

但我想排除近期的情況。我們不會在近期內籌集資金。

Okay. Then you can give me any color on what that means?

好的。那你能解釋一下這是什麼意思嗎？

No.

不。

(laughter). All right, I tried.

（笑聲）好吧，我試過了。

I might get some color from the SEC if I gave you that.

如果我把這個告訴你，我可能會從美國證券交易委員會得到一些線索。

Elon, and Deepak, on the, can you give us any update on the leasing program here in the United States?

伊隆和迪帕克，您能向我們介紹美國租賃計劃的最新進展嗎？

I think as Elon a lucid, that's something we're looking into next year. We're continue to evaluate that and I think at this point our focus is on the key priorities of production.

我認為，正如伊隆馬斯克所說，這是我們明年正在考慮的事情。我們會繼續評估，我認為目前我們的重點是生產方面的關鍵優先事項。

Yes, maybe just give my views on leasing long-term which is, I'm a huge proponent of leasing, particularly for electric vehicles. As is the case in solar, leasing has proven to be extremely effective as a way to encourage seller adoption. And it sort of seems like it shouldn't be that effective because if you told someone, hey this system is going to pay back in five years and they say five years, that seems like a long time. Do you know how long your savings account is going to take to pay you back? You will be dead. (laughter). So people seem to be unable to do the math on that it is like -- it's like wow -- it is, excluding compounding, a 20% return if it pays back in five years, and with certainty. (laughter). Where do you get something like that. Yet amazingly, had trouble getting people to act so then we are basically out trying to sell them to people that understand, basically, people who are sophisticated in finance and are looking for yields, and said, okay, let's go toward people who really understand yield and take that problem away from the consumer so they don't have to think about it and they could just look at it like their electricity cost went down.

是的，或許我可以談談我對長期租賃的看法。我非常支持租賃，尤其是電動車租賃。就像太陽能產業一樣，租賃已被證明是一種非常有效的鼓勵賣家採用的方式。但它似乎不應該那麼有效，因為如果你告訴別人，這個系統五年就能收回成本，他們說五年，聽起來太長了。你知道你的儲蓄帳戶要多久才能還清嗎？你肯定已經死了。 （笑聲）。所以人們似乎無法計算——哇——如果五年內收回成本，扣除複利，回報率是20%，而且是肯定的。 （笑聲）。你從哪裡得到這樣的東西？然而令人驚訝的是，我們很難讓人們採取行動，所以我們基本上是在試圖把它們賣給那些了解的人，基本上是那些精通金融並尋求收益的人，並說，好吧，讓我們去找那些真正了解收益的人，把這個問題從消費者手中拿走，這樣他們就不必考慮它，他們只需把它看作是他們的電力成本下降了。

So why is that relevant to Tesla? Because the cost of operation of Model S is much less than the cost of operation of any other premium sedan by far. It is going to feel like you have a car for free. And in particularly in places like Europe, $9 or $10 of that gallon in Europe, you can spend a couple hundred dollars filling up your gas tank. Or you could spend some negligible amount recharging your car. It really amounts to a huge effective discount on the cost of operation of the car over other premium sedans. And the best way to make that apparent is through a lease. So we're going to be very big on leasing in the future. We just haven't needed to do that because if there's enough demand for the car, we just tell people, you just have to buy the whole thing, you cannot have leasing.

那麼，這跟特斯拉有什麼關係呢？因為Model S的營運成本遠低於目前任何其他高端轎車。使用Model S，你會覺得自己免費擁有了一輛車。尤其是在歐洲這樣的地方，每加侖汽油只需9到10美元，只需花幾百美元就能加滿一箱油，或是花很少的錢給車充電。與其他高端轎車相比，這實際上相當於Model S的營運成本大幅降低。而實現這一點的最佳方式就是租賃。所以我們未來會大力發展租賃業務。我們之前不需要這樣做，因為如果市場對Model S的需求夠大，我們就會告訴人們，你必須買下整輛車，不能租賃。

If we have sufficient demand to do that then we should turn our attention to the key thing which is production, and then next year we will get to leasing. And we do have data from the Roadster that I think that's helpful to leasing companies and by the way, the Roadster has got really good residual value. I think it is significantly better than a Porsche, actually. Maybe it depends on which Porsche. Certainly it is got much better residual valid than the Porsche I bought about five years ago. (laughter). The thing's worth like a peanut after. It is like holy crow.

如果需求夠大，那麼我們就應該把注意力轉向關鍵的領域——生產，然後明年再轉向租賃。我們確實掌握了Roadster的數據，我認為這對租賃公司很有幫助。順便說一句，Roadster的殘值真的很高。實際上，我認為它比保時捷好得多。也許這取決於哪款保時捷。當然，它的殘值比我大約五年前買的那輛保時捷要高得多。 （笑聲）這車現在一文不值。真是太神奇了。

Okay, my last one on deliveries, Deepak you mentioned there isn't much risk around timing around production and deliveries. Maybe if you could just expand upon that, and how people are ready to accept their cars and also is it safe for me to infer from your comments about the quality issues in getting to your target quality that you're not currently delivering, and then when do you expect to actually start delivering vehicles?

好的，我最後想問一下關於交付的問題，Deepak，您之前提到生產和交付的時間表並沒有太大風險。您能否進一步闡述這一點？人們對於汽車的接受程度如何？從您之前提到的品質問題，以及您目前未能達到目標品質的預期，我是否可以推斷出您目前還沒有交付車輛？您預計什麼時候會真正開始交付車輛？

My comment earlier was especially in the early part of our deliveries there's a bigger percentage of deliveries in California. Significantly reduces the gap between production and delivery. And as we go further out there is going to be a few days, but it is not dramatically different from the traditional OEM model, that was my point. Hopefully that's clear. And in terms of delivery, yes, we are making deliveries. We are also making a lot of cars for marketing and sales, even in Q3, so that we continue and show as many cars to our potential customers and folks who have made reservations that are locking in their cars. So it is not as if we're not making deliveries, we're just going slow on the ramp to sort out the issues before we go up the S-curve.

我之前說過，尤其是在交貨初期，加州的交付比例更高。這顯著縮短了生產和交付之間的差距。隨著交貨時間的延長，交貨時間可能會延長幾天，但這與傳統的OEM模式並沒有太大區別，這就是我的觀點。希望我表達得很清楚。至於交付，是的，我們正在交付。即使在第三季度，我們也在為行銷和銷售生產大量車輛，以便我們能夠繼續向潛在客戶以及已經預訂並鎖定車輛的客戶展示盡可能多的車輛。所以，這並不意味著我們沒有交付，我們只是在緩慢推進，在進入S曲線之前解決問題。

Great, thanks guys.

太好了，謝謝大家。

I just want to make a quick comment on timing here. We have about five minutes left for the scheduled call. We will add another five minutes on top of that so analysts if you could please keep your questions short and management, your answers brief.

我只想簡單談談時間安排。我們原定的電話會議還剩大約五分鐘。我們會在此基礎上再增加五分鐘，所以分析師們，請你們的問題簡短一些，管理層的回答也請簡短一些。

Sorry. (laughter).

抱歉。 （笑聲）

We will get to as many as we can. Thanks. Jamie, next question.

我們會盡可能地回答。謝謝。傑米，下一個問題。

Sanjay Shrestha, Lazard Capital Markets.

拉扎德資本市場 (Lazard Capital Markets) 的 Sanjay Shrestha。

The first question is on, can you talk about how are reservation sort of converting into the final order for you guys and obviously reservation numbers have been good, but what would you say is the final order number at this point in time, do you have 500, 5,000, how should we think about that?

第一個問題是，您能否談談預訂如何轉換為您們的最終訂單，顯然預訂數量一直不錯，但您認為目前的最終訂單數量是多少，有 500 還是 5,000，我們應該如何考慮？

How many have locked in their options? Is that what you mean?

有多少人鎖定了自己的選擇權？你是指這個嗎？

Exactly.

確切地。

12,200 reservations, net reservations. George is saying we've had about 1,000 people lock in but we only ask them to lock in --

淨預訂量：12,200。喬治說，我們大約有 1,000 人已經鎖定了預訂，但我們只要求他們鎖定——

A few months, but we haven't gone to all the folks, we've only gone to a small percentage of people.

幾個月了，但我們並沒有接觸到所有人，我們只接觸了一小部分人。

Right, yes.

是的，是的。

We have invited the signature reservation holders in the US only to configure and then we went out about 10 days ago give or take to our first group of general production people sending out the emails saying, it is time to build your Model S and then this week will go out to the next bunch of general production US, and then we will proceed from there to Canada signature then Canada general production. It is not like just be clear here, we haven't gone out to 12,000 people and said configure your car. We're doing it in sequential order based upon when they made their reservation.

我們只邀請了美國的簽名預訂用戶進行配置，大約10天前，我們給第一批普通生產人員發了郵件，告訴他們，是時候生產你的Model S了。這週我們會給下一批美國普通生產人員發送電子郵件，之後我們會從那裡開始，先到加拿大簽名預訂，然後再到加拿大普通生產。我們並沒有直接聯絡12000人，告訴他們如何配置你的車。我們是根據他們的預訂時間按順序進行的。

Okay.

好的。

And as of today we will be about 1,000 fully configured cars that people have finalized their options and everything like that.

截至今天，我們將擁有約 1,000 輛完全配置的汽車，人們已經確定了他們的選擇等等。

Basically more than covering what you plan to ship in Q3 kind of a thing, and then Q4, you think about that as we go --.

基本上，這不僅涵蓋了您計劃在第三季度發貨的產品，然後是第四季度，您可以在我們進行時考慮這一點--。

By far, yes.

到目前為止，是的。

By far.

到目前為止。

Okay, that's all I had, thanks, guys.

好的，這就是我要說的全部了，謝謝大家。

Andrea James, Dougherty & Company.

安德里亞·詹姆斯（Andrea James），Dougherty & Company。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just quickly on the ramp. Obviously Elon when you chose to slow production in Q3, you had to make a decision to ramp even faster to make up for it in Q4, or preserve the previous step function, so what went into that decision and why not push some of the 5,000 for this year into next year and build in some more contingency time?

嗨，感謝您回答我的問題。簡單談談產量提升。顯然，埃隆，當您選擇在第三季度減產時，您必須決定在第四季度進一步提高產量以彌補損失，或者保留先前的階梯式生產模式。您做出這個決定的原因是什麼？為什麼不把今年的5000輛產量計畫推遲到明年，留出更多應急時間呢？

I know we made a hard commitment that we were going to do 5,000 units this year, there was effectively a soft implication that we would do for 5,000 units this year. The hard one was the 20,000 extra and the 25% gross margin and the start of deliveries in no later than July. Those are the three hard ones and the others stayed relatively soft, but I still want to aspire to meet something, even if it is a soft commitment, a softer commitment, and it is going to mean that we are going to have to work pretty hard over Thanksgiving and Christmas and New Years, and all that, but we want to try to do the right thing for our investors.

我知道我們做出了今年生產5000輛的硬性承諾，實際上也包含一個軟性暗示，那就是我們今年會生產5000輛。硬性承諾包括額外增加20000輛、25%的毛利率以及不遲於7月開始交付。這三個是硬性承諾，其他的則相對軟性承諾，但我仍然希望能夠達成一些目標，即使這是一個軟性承諾，一個更軟性的承諾，這意味著我們必須在感恩節、聖誕節和新年等節日期間非常努力，但我們希望盡力為我們的投資者做正確的事情。

Okay, so it was because of the commitment and not -- okay. And then, I hate to go here, but there's commentary on the blogs and message boards, you have people with low reservation saying, I'm not told I'm going to get my car until October or Q1. I guess what do you make of that commentary, I imagine some people on your team are looking at it as well?

好的，所以是因為承諾，而不是——好吧。然後，我不想在這裡說，但在部落格和留言板上有一些評論，有人對此持保留態度，說「我得等到10月或第一季才能拿到車」。你對這種評論有什麼看法？我想你團隊裡也有人關注這個問題。

Sometimes things can go a little awry on the message boards. I wouldn't read too much into the message boards but I think some of those people can get the wrong information and they can panic or. George, do you want to?

有時候，留言板上的事兒可能會有點不對勁。我不會過多地解讀留言板，但我覺得有些人可能會得到錯誤的訊息，然後驚慌失措。喬治，你想這樣嗎？

Yes, I monitor them, I watch them on a regular -- I watch them on a daily basis and I squelched one the other day where somebody came out and specifically said I have it on good authority that there are 200 founders series cars and everybody's going to be pushed back. And it is a blatant factual inaccuracy, and so I went and I shut it down. Those kind of things happen all the time. I try to stay -- I try to not contribute to the message boards much at all but sometimes things just run awry. Some people -- early on we had gone out with a more firm date, whenever people would configuring their cars early on in early April and May and they were configuring, in April and May they were configuring their cars. And our system kicked out a date. It was a projection and then we sort of left it there is a placeholder. Some of those people have thought that was a firm date and it never really was, so we are correcting that. But I watch the boards all the time. You cannot go by what's on the boards but you cannot go by what's on the boards.

是的，我會定期關注這些訊息，我每天都會關注。前幾天，有人站出來明確表示，我有充分理由相信創始人係列汽車有200輛，而且所有汽車都會被推遲，我就封鎖了他們。這明顯是與事實不符，所以我就去關閉了它。這種事情經常發生。我盡量保持沉默，盡量不去留言板發帖，但有時事情就是會出錯。有些人－我們早期會定一個更確定的日期，每當人們在4月初和5月初配置他們的汽車時，他們就會在4月和5月配置他們的汽車。我們的系統會剔除這個日期。這是一個預測，然後我們把它留在那裡，留了一個佔位符。有些人認為這是一個確定的日期，但實際上它從來都不是，所以我們正在糾正這個問題。但我一直在關注這些留言板。你不能根據公告板上的內容來做決定，但你也不能根據公告板上的內容來做決定。

Yes, exactly.

是的，確實如此。

I don't know how else to describe it.

我不知道該如何描述它。

I think I'd just judge things by what serial number of cars are being delivered and that will give some sense of where -- how we are tracking to actual deliveries. You will see that number rise quite dramatically and I think we will see some of this activity on the boards just die down, because in the absence of information you can get rampant speculation that's just not based on anything, and while I, (laughter). I have to be careful not to say anything about [short salaries]. (laughter) I think one of the most short sold stocks on the stock market and there's certainly people with means, motive, and opportunity to say things that are negative and untrue. Not saying that they are, but there's means, motive and opportunity to do so.

我想我只會根據交付的汽車序號來判斷，這樣就能大致了解我們是如何追蹤實際交付情況的。你會看到這個數字急劇上升，我想我們會看到一些論壇上的活動逐漸減少，因為在缺乏資訊的情況下，你可能會出現毫無根據的瘋狂猜測。而我，（笑聲）。我必須小心，不要談論（做空工資）。 （笑聲）我認為，這是股市上被做空最多的股票之一，肯定有人有手段、有動機、有機會發表負面和不實言論。我不是說他們有手段、有動機、有機會這樣做。

I think that's helpful, thank you. One final, what leads you to say you'll have 20,000 reservations by the end of this year? George, you have talked about it a little bit but I was wondering what gets you there?

我覺得這很有幫助，謝謝。最後一個問題，是什麼讓您說今年年底會有2萬份預訂？喬治，您之前已經談過這個了，但我想知道您是如何實現這個目標的？

I think we have not said that will have 20,000 reservations by the end of the year. We might have that but I wouldn't say it is, it's not out of the question of but it is inclusive of deliveries, I think it is very likely -- it is likely, perhaps take the very away, inclusive of deliveries I think it is likely that we would have a cumulative essentially 20,000 sales, I think there's a pretty good chance of that.

我想我們還沒說過到年底會有2萬輛預訂。我們或許會有，但我不會說一定有，這並非不可能，但包括交付量在內，我認為很有可能——很有可能，甚至可能，即使扣除交付量，我認為我們的累計銷量也有可能達到2萬輛，我認為這個可能性相當大。

What does 2013 sold out mean?

2013 年售罄是什麼意思？

I actually think that 2013 is a likely to be production constrained again. I do think it is going to be demand constrained.

我實際上認為2013年很可能再次出現產量受限的情況。我確實認為需求也會受限。

So your saying that over the course of 2013 you'll have more reservations or more demand than you can produce cars, that's what you mean when you say it will be sold out?

所以您說 2013 年全年預訂量或需求量將超過汽車產量，這就是您所說的汽車將會售罄的意思嗎？

I think, yes but I think that we will -- I think that we will sell more cars than we can -- there will be more orders for cars than we were reasonably able to produce at high-quality next year.

我認為是的，但我認為我們會——我認為我們銷售的汽車將超過我們能夠銷售的汽車——明年汽車訂單的數量將超過我們能夠合理生產的高品質汽車的數量。

We will not have inventory.

我們將沒有庫存。

We will not have inventory.

我們將沒有庫存。

So are not saying though that you'll get to the end of 2012 and you'll be sold out on 2013? You're just saying over the course of 2013 you expect to be sold out, is that kind of what you meant by that?

所以，您不是說2012年底的時候，2013年的時候門票就賣光了嗎？您只是說，預計2013年門票會賣光，您是這個意思嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think the way to look at this is that we never plan to have inventory. And what will happen is demand, we have a plan in place with stores and marketing, et cetera to get up to a demand rate by month that will always stay ahead of production, and we can adjust production depending upon where demand goes. And what will happen is we don't expect to have 20,000 reservations on an ongoing basis because that's way too far out. We will have -- our goal is to have three to four months of active reservations at any given point in time ahead of production. Whatever the production rate is.

我認為看待這個問題的方式是，我們從未計劃過庫存。真正要看的是需求。我們與門市、行銷等部門制定了計劃，以確保每月的需求率始終高於產量，並且我們可以根據需求調整產量。我們不會期望持續擁有2萬份預訂，因為這太遙不可及了。我們的目標是——無論生產力是多少，在任何特定時間點，都能維持三到四個月的有效預訂量。

Exactly.

確切地。

So the idea is to get a run rate of reservations that's three to four months ahead of whatever's production rate is so that we never have the expense of inventory, we never have any of those things, we just have run rate of three to four months of ongoing reservations.

因此，我們的想法是讓預訂的運行率比生產力提前三到四個月，這樣我們就不會產生庫存費用，我們永遠不會有任何這些費用，我們只需要三到四個月的持續預訂的運行率。

That's fundamental to our retail model.

這對我們的零售模式至關重要。

Right.

正確的。

That model continues and we always expect to be ahead, and in fact, we don't want it to be too long because that's a detractor for more reservations.

這種模式將繼續下去，我們始終期望保持領先，事實上，我們不希望它持續太久，因為這會影響更多的預訂。

Right. As we get closer to being able to deliver cars faster our reservation demand will be stronger because people will -- it will be more predictable and people will be able to say I have a lease that's coming up in three or four months, now is the time to reserve. What will happen is it refunds and other things, refunds at that point go almost to nothing because someone will reserve a car and literally go right into the configuration process within the next 30 days. They'll configure their car and then we'll deliver it in another couple of months and so that's the business model and that's why it works so perfectly.

是的。隨著我們越來越快地交付車輛，我們的預訂需求將會更加強勁，因為人們會更加可預測，他們會說，我有一個三、四個月後到期的租約，現在是時候預訂了。接下來會發生的是退款和其他費用，到那時退款幾乎為零，因為有人會預訂一輛車，並在接下來的30天內直接進入配置流程。他們會配置好他們的車，然後我們會在幾個月後交貨。這就是我們的商業模式，也是它如此完美運作的原因。

Thank you. I appreciate that.

謝謝。我很感激。

Michael Lew, Needham.

麥可劉易斯，尼德姆。

Thanks and good afternoon. With regard to the ongoing nationwide tour, how much incremental demand has that generated?

謝謝，下午好。關於正在進行的全國巡演，它帶來了多少增量需求？

The tour is going really well and what's happened is I think our July, our end of June and July demand has been -- has increased from a couple of reasons. One is the news we are delivering cars, one is because of the incredible reviews that we've gotten on the cars, and I think the third is that we are putting a lot of people behind the wheel for the first time. They are getting out of the car and saying incredible things, they're then going home and telling their friends and coming back and getting their friends involved. So we are seeing incremental demand because of the tour, but I want to keep a focus on the fact that the tour is really designed for our reservation holders that currently have reservations. We haven't actually gone out and started having lots of test drives slots available for new customers. So again, that's another opportunity for us in another two -- in another month or so when we actually take the test drive cars we have and the ones we are building now and we go out and we say, okay, now we've gone out, we've done 5,000, 6,000 test drives of reservation holders. And then we start actually giving people who don't have reservations test drives for the first time and that's part of the kick that we will get on the reservations.

這次試駕之旅進展順利。我認為，7月份、6月底和7月份的需求有所增長，原因有幾個。一是我們正在交付車輛的消息，二是我們對車輛的評價很高，三是很多人第一次試駕。他們下車後，讚不絕口，回家後會告訴朋友，回來後還會讓朋友們也能參與其中。所以，這次試駕之旅確實帶來了需求的成長，但我想強調的是，這次試駕之旅實際上是為目前已有預訂的顧客設計的。我們目前還沒有為新顧客提供大量的試駕名額。所以，這對我們來說又是一次機會，再過兩個月左右，我們就會拿出我們現有的和正在生產的汽車進行試駕，然後告訴大家，好吧，我們已經為五六千名預訂用戶進行了試駕。然後，我們開始讓那些沒有預訂的人首次體驗試駕，這也是我們在預訂方面取得的進展之一。

Yes. This is an important point that George just made. The test drives, all these test drives, almost all of them are just for existing customers. We actually -- essentially we could generate more sales if we wanted to. We could grow the rate faster, but there's not much point in growing the rate faster if it's 9 or 10 months before you get the car. There's just not much point really in trying to add additional orders.

是的。這是喬治剛才提到的一個重點。試駕，所有這些試駕，幾乎都只針對現有客戶。實際上，如果我們願意，我們可以創造更多銷售量。我們可以加快銷售成長速度，但如果等到你拿到車還要等9到10個月，那麼加快銷售成長速度就沒什麼意義了。試圖增加訂單真的沒什麼意義。

We have an incredibly loyal base. We have an incredibly loyal customer base and if you look at the people who have already received their cars and you look at the videos they are putting together and posting and the people they are talking to, we are getting incremental reservations already from the cars we have out there from the people who are driving them and going to dinner and going to show or whatever with other people who are then calling us and saying I need to have one like Steve. I want a car like Steve, I want a car like Nancy. So we are getting incremental from having the cars we have out there already, when that starts escalating and we start doing new test drives with people who don't have reservations --

我們擁有極為忠誠的客戶群。我們擁有極為忠誠的客戶群。如果你看看那些已經收到車的人，看看他們製作和發布的視頻，看看他們交流的對象，你就會發現，我們已經從現有的車輛中獲得了越來越多的預訂，這些預訂來自那些開著這些車的人，他們和其他人一起去吃飯、看車展等等，然後他們打電話給我們，說“我想要一輛像史蒂夫那樣的車”。 「我想要一輛像史蒂夫那樣的車，我想要一輛像南希那樣的車」。所以，我們透過現有的車輛不斷獲得預訂，當預訂量開始成長時，我們開始為那些沒有預訂的人進行新的試駕——

Essentially, we are seeing demand acceleration without trying. If we tried it would be -- if we really tried hard it would be more than this.

本質上，我們無需費力就能看到需求加速成長。如果我們真的努力嘗試，需求量會更大。

I think to point out and we don't -- you don't have the visibility into where all of our cars are. Here's something to think about on the demand side is we have the Get Amped test drive Tour which has the marketing cars out there that are doing test drives. We don't have a Model S at all in Europe or Asia. We don't have a component tour, we don't have anything at all in either one of those major markets and we are sold out in signature in EU and so we are not doing anything outside of North America and yet we've got the backlog we have now. As we go in to the end of Q3 and into Q4 we are going to start transitioning those markets to Model S and at that point trying in Europe and Asia for the first time. (multiple speakers).

我想指出的是，我們無法了解我們所有車型的銷售情況。從需求方面來看，我們有一個「Get Amped」試駕之旅，其中的行銷車型正在那裡進行試駕。我們在歐洲和亞洲都沒有Model S。我們沒有零件巡展，在這兩個主要市場都沒有任何產品，而且我們在歐盟的簽名車型已經售罄，所以我們在北美以外的市場沒有任何業務，但我們現在還有積壓訂單。隨著第三季末和第四季的到來，我們將開始將這些市場轉向Model S，屆時我們將首次嘗試進入歐洲和亞洲市場。 (多位發言人)

I think a reasonable definition of trying would mean you've got at least one car in the market. Obviously we're not, it's surprising the articles out there questioning whether there's demand for the Model S. Maybe -- there may be demand issues with other electric vehicles, there's certainly not a demand issue with the Model S.

我認為「嘗試」的合理定義是，你至少在市場上擁有一輛車。顯然我們沒有，令人驚訝的是，外面那些質疑Model S是否有需求的文章。也許吧——其他電動車可能有需求問題，但Model S肯定不存在需求問題。

Okay. And so as I understand correctly, there will be a slight pause and then possibly another tour, let's say, going into the Northeast market since you mentioned that and possibly even the Midwest?

好的。所以，我的理解沒錯，我們會稍微暫停一下，然後可能會再進行一次巡演，比如說，既然你提到了東北市場，甚至可能是中西部市場？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

The Get Amped Tour?

興奮之旅？

Just in terms of markets that have not been tapped.

僅就尚未開發的市場而言。

We barely touched the greater New York area.

我們幾乎沒有觸及大紐約地區。

Yes. We are opening more stores this year, this fall in fact, one of our next stores will be in the New York Metropolitan area, and then we will come back with another two and then we will go further north from there into the Massachusetts area and down into the DC area. We think that market holds lots and lots and lots of potential because we already have the number reservations we have there without a lot of presence. When we have presence, I think my retail history tells me that there is lots and lots of untapped potential there that we are going to begin tapping starting in September.

是的。我們今年會開更多店，實際上就在今年秋天，我們的下一家門市將在紐約大都會區，之後還會再開兩家，之後我們會進一步向北，進入馬薩諸塞州地區，再到華盛頓特區。我們認為這個市場潛力巨大，因為我們在那裡的預訂量已經很大，而且店面規模還沒有擴大。但當我在那裡開店的時候，我的零售經驗告訴我，那裡還有許多尚未開發的潛力，我們將從9月開始挖掘這些潛力。

A think a lot of people on the call are probably from the greater New York area, maybe just listening, the stores that we've opened in the greater New York area and the ones that are -- will be opening in the next few months.

我認為電話會議中的許多人可能來自大紐約地區，也許只是在聽我們在大紐約地區開設的商店以及未來幾個月內將開設的商店。

Sure. For those of you in the New York area, you're probably aware we have the store on 25th Street that's been there for a while, and then we opened up in the Westchester, up in Westchester County and it is doing very, very well, very, very nicely. And we see where all the reservations are coming from through each a store and it is actually increased the reservation flow in the West 25th Street store, so having two stores in the market has helped. For those of you in North Jersey, we will be opening up in Garden State Plaza, at Short Hills Mall. Then for you in Long Island we will be looking to open up in Roosevelt Field. Going from one store on West 25th Street to having two in northern Jersey, one in Westchester County and one in Long Island, it is a pretty good capture of the New York metropolitan area with those particular centers surrounding the city.

當然。紐約地區的朋友們可能知道，我們在第25街的門市已經開了一段時間了，後來我們在威斯特徹斯特郡的威斯特徹斯特也開了一家店，生意非常好，非常非常好。我們知道每家店的預訂量都來自哪裡，這實際上增加了西25街門店的預訂量，所以在市場上開設兩家門市很有幫助。對於新澤西北部地區的朋友們，我們將在肖特山購物中心的花園州廣場開設新店。對於長島的朋友們，我們將考慮在羅斯福球場開設新店。從西25街的一家門市到新澤西北部兩家門市（一家在威斯特徹斯特郡，一家在長島），這很好地展現了紐約大都會區及其周邊中心地帶的特色。

Our store in Chelsea, we've got that lease because it was the only lease we could afford back in the day and it is all basically a version -- maybe it's version 1.5 of store technology. If you want to see the latest in store technology and I'm not using the word, there really is sort of store technology, you want to go to Westchester or one of the stores that's opening up in New Jersey or Long Island. They'll share the latest and greatest in the retail experience. But just to give you some sense, we basically had, I count the store in Chelsea as like a half store. We had a half store until a few months ago in the entire greater New York, a half store.

我們租了切爾西的店，是因為那是我們當時唯一能負擔得起的租約，而且基本上是門市技術的某個版本——也許是1.5版。如果你想了解最新的門市技術——我並沒有用「技術」這個詞——那確實有門市技術，你可以去威斯特徹斯特，或者去新澤西或長島新開的門市。他們會分享最新、最好的零售體驗。不過，為了讓你更容易理解，我們基本上把切爾西的門市算作半家店。直到幾個月前，我們在整個大紐約地區都只有半家店，也就是半家店。

What's happened, like I said, what's happened, is when we opened up the Westchester, got that awareness, and a little bit of publicity and media, we now have two full stores, because it took the half store and made into a full store with reservations. Not from a technology standpoint but from a productivity standpoint.

正如我之前所說，當我們在威斯特徹斯特區開店後，獲得了一定的知名度，並得到了一些宣傳和媒體報道，現在我們有兩家店客滿，因為我們把半家店改造成了一家帶預訂的全店。這不是從技術角度，而是從生產力角度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I think we will take one more question, Jamie, please.

我想我們還要回答一個問題，傑米。

Jesse Patel, Jefferies.

傑西‧帕特爾 (Jesse Patel)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Thank you for taking my call, I apologize for missing the earlier queue. Deepak, for modeling purposes, what is the targeted cash cycle days conversion we should be thinking about at full ramp? Can we assume sub-20?

感謝您接聽我的電話，很抱歉錯過了之前的排隊。 Deepak，為了建模的目的，我們應該考慮在全速成長時，目標現金週期天數轉換率是多少？我們可以假設低於20天嗎？

Sorry, I'm not sure what your question is, Jesse, exactly. Are you referring to our inventory turns or were working capital needs, I'm not exactly sure.

抱歉，傑西，我不太確定你的問題是什麼。你指的是庫存週轉率還是營運資金需求？我不太確定。

If we take days inventory, days receivable and days payable and basically add them up, how quickly can you turn into cash?

如果我們將庫存天數、應收帳款天數和應付帳款天數基本加起來，您多久可以將其轉換為現金？

I think the way we look at it is that fundamentally we have zero receivables, we deliver the car within a few days of production and we get full payment. But our supplier payment terms are on average about 45 days so we tend to deliver and receive money before we have to pay to our suppliers so I think from your point of view more focus is working capital usage and our working capital actually doesn't, our need for working capital doesn't increase as we ramp up production. It helps us in fact from a cash flow perspective.

我認為我們看待這個問題的方式是，從根本上來說，我們的應收帳款為零，我們在生產後幾天內交付汽車並獲得全額付款。但我們的供應商付款期限平均約為45天，所以我們傾向於在向供應商付款之前就交付並收到款項。所以我認為從你的角度來看，我們更關注的是營運資本的使用，而我們的營運資本實際上並沒有增加，我們對營運資本的需求並沒有隨著產量的增加而增加。事實上，從現金流的角度來看，這對我們有幫助。

Asked the question, which is a good one because the capital needs of the business, if the business needs to raise equity or something to build working capital as it grows, the effective return on investment for investor is much lower than if it is the other way around. In our case it is the other way around. The faster we grow the business, the more cash we have available.

這個問題問得好，因為企業的資本需求，如果企業在發展過程中需要籌集股本或其他資金來建立營運資本，投資者的實際投資回報率會比反過來要低得多。在我們的情況下，情況恰恰相反。業務發展越快，我們可用的現金就越多。

That's what I thought and why I question the Bloomberg article. Are you picking out X reservations in the quarter?

我就是這麼想的，這也是我質疑彭博文章的原因。你們本季會挑選X個預訂嗎？

No. We are putting zero attention on X reservations. That's not really a metric we want to call people's attention to. That's something that we will turn our attention to next year.

不。我們對X個預訂量完全不關注。我們其實不想讓人們關注這個指標。明年我們會把注意力轉向這個方面。

Do you think some of the reservations for S and X are US delivery from European or Asian clients?

您是否認為 S 和 X 的部分預訂是來自歐洲或亞洲客戶的美國交付？

Definitely we have reservations. (multiple speakers) As George mentioned, our Model S reservations includes European Signature Series, where we are sold out. We have reservations from all over the world for both S and X.

當然，我們有預訂。 （多位發言者）正如喬治所說，我們的Model S預訂包括歐洲Signature系列，目前已經售罄。 S和X的預訂來自世界各地。

There's also some people who just cannot wait and they order a US car and they're just going to ship it to Europe.

還有一些人迫不及待地訂購了一輛美國汽車，然後準備將其運往歐洲。

That's why I was kind of wondering if the launch in Europe and Asia is really going to increase the reservations that much or if they're already reserving today.

這就是為什麼我有點好奇在歐洲和亞洲推出這項服務是否真的會大幅增加預訂量，或者他們今天是否已經開始預訂了。

It will increase it massively.

它將大幅增加它。

Your question is appropriate in that, do I think there are 5 people, 10 people who have bought US cars that are going to take them to Europe? Yes, but we have hundreds of reservations in EU and we are getting more and more every month and so that is not going to impact -- that's going to impact not all. That will be no impact.

你的問題是恰當的，我是否認為有5到10個人買了美國車，打算開去歐洲？是的，但我們在歐盟有數百個預訂，而且每個月都在增加，所以這不會影響——不會影響所有人。不會有影響。

Yes.

是的。

(multiple speakers). I guess it's not quite as exotic as picking up your Mercedes from Stuttgart, but I guess you can give them a burger and send them on the way. You made an interesting comment Elon about battery pack replacements, allowing a car, the car to have better range versus today and you said this before, when can we expect the next battery chemistry improvements and what's your road map for that?

（多位發言者）我想這不像從斯圖加特提賓士那麼奇特，但我想你可以給他們一個漢堡，然後送他們上路。伊隆，你對電池組更換發表了一個很有意思的評論，它能讓汽車擁有比現在更長的續航里程，你之前也說過，我們什麼時候可以期待下一次電池化學改進？你的路線圖是什麼？

I think it is probably with the Gen 3 that we see -- a change in the fundamental chemistry as we did with Roadster where Roadster went from a went from a cobalt cathode to a nickel cobalt aluminum cathode, and effectively a 50% increase in -- roughly 50% increase in both gravimetric and volumetric engine density. Also a drop in cost because of the much lower cobalt content. I cannot comment on the specifics of some of the technologies that I'm aware because of confidentiality agreements. But I can say I am highly optimistic about seeing substantial reductions in cost per kilowatt hour in the three to four year time frame.

我認為，我們很可能在第三代電池中看到了根本化學變化，就像我們在Roadster上看到的那樣，Roadster從鈷陰極變成了鎳鈷鋁陰極，實際上增加了50%——重量和體積發動機密度都增加了大約50%。由於鈷含量大幅降低，成本也下降了。由於保密協議，我無法評論我所了解的一些技術的具體細節。但我可以說，我對在未來三到四年內每千瓦時成本的大幅下降非常樂觀。

Thank you gentlemen. Congratulations on the ramp.

謝謝各位。恭喜順利登頂。

Thanks, Jesse.

謝謝，傑西。

Thanks everyone, I apologize we didn't get to everybody today but this is going to conclude our call. We look forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks, either at test drive events and we'll also be at several conferences including in New York on August 7 for Needham's Advanced Industrial Technologies Conference, or on April 13 in Vail at Pacific Crest Global Technology Leadership Forum. Or, on the 14th, in New York again, at the JPMorgan Auto Conference. Thank you, everyone. Goodbye.

謝謝大家！很抱歉今天沒能聯絡到大家，但我們的電話會議到此結束。我們期待在接下來的幾週與大家見面，無論是在試駕活動上，還是參加一些會議，包括8月7日在紐約舉行的尼德姆先進工業技術大會，或4月13日在韋爾舉行的太平洋頂峰全球技術領導力論壇。或者，4月14日，我們再次在紐約參加摩根大通汽車大會。謝謝大家。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference for today. Again, thank you for your participation. You may all disconnect. Have a good day.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。再次感謝各位的參與。各位可以斷開連接了。祝大家有美好的一天。