特斯拉 (TSLA) 2012 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tesla Motors Corporation second-quarter financial results question-and-answer conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到特斯拉汽車公司第二季度財務業績問答電話會議。此時所有參與者都處於只聽模式。稍後，我們將進行問答環節，屆時將給出說明。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the call over to Jeff Evanson, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Jeff Evanson。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you Jamie, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Tesla Motors second-quarter 2012 financial results Q&A conference call. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman, CEO and Chief Product Architect, and Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer. We announced our financial results for the second quarter shortly after 1.00 p.m. Pacific Time today. The shareholder letter, financial results, and webcast of this Q&A are all available at the Company's investor relations website at ir.teslamotors.com.

謝謝杰米，大家下午好。歡迎來到特斯拉汽車公司 2012 年第二季度財務業績問答電話會議。今天，特斯拉董事長、首席執行官兼首席產品架構師 Elon Musk 和特斯拉首席財務官 Deepak Ahuja 加入了我的行列。我們在下午 1 點後不久公佈了第二季度的財務業績。今天太平洋時間。本問答的股東信函、財務業績和網絡直播均可在公司投資者關係網站 ir.teslamotors.com 上查閱。

Today's call is for your questions. We will conduct the Q&A session live, so please press star one now if you would like to ask a question. During the course of this call we may discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are predictions based on management's current expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent 10-Q filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views as of today and should not be relied upon after today. We also disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

今天的電話是為了您的問題。我們將進行現場問答環節，所以如果您想提問，請立即按星一號。在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述是基於管理層當前預期的預測。由於許多風險和不確定性，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 中提到的風險和不確定性，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。此類前瞻性陳述代表我們今天的觀點，不應在今天之後依賴。我們也不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

Now, Jamie, can we please have our first question?

現在，傑米，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Jesse Patel, Jefferies.

傑西帕特爾，傑富瑞。

Jesse, are you there? Jesse?

傑西，你在嗎？傑西？

Jesse, your line is open. Please check your mute button.

傑西，你的電話是開放的。請檢查您的靜音按鈕。

All right, Jamie we will come back to Jesse. Why don't we take the next question please?

好的，傑米，我們會回到傑西身邊。我們為什麼不回答下一個問題呢？

John Lovallo, Merrill Lynch.

約翰洛瓦洛，美林證券。

Hey, guys, thanks for taking the call. A few questions for you here. Starting with developmental services revenue, was that $5 million in the quarter all Daimler revenue?

嘿，伙計們，感謝您接聽電話。這裡有幾個問題要問你。從開發服務收入開始，該季度的 500 萬美元是戴姆勒的全部收入嗎？

Hi, this is Deepak. John, yes, it is all Daimler revenue, you're right about that.

嗨，我是迪帕克。約翰，是的，這都是戴姆勒的收入，你說得對。

Would you say that, that $5 million, maybe a little bit higher million dollar, would be a good run rate over the next six quarters?

您是否會說，這 500 萬美元，也許是更高的百萬美元，在接下來的六個季度中會是一個不錯的運行率？

It is going to vary by quarter because our overall program with Daimler is based on delivery of certain milestones and there are different revenues associated with it. We have indicated that it is going to be total close to $30 million and it'll be spread over the next six quarters roughly.

它會因季度而異，因為我們與戴姆勒的整體計劃基於某些里程碑的交付，並且與之相關的收入不同。我們已經表示，總額將接近 3000 萬美元，並將大致分佈在接下來的六個季度中。

Okay, great. In terms of Model S deliveries in the quarter, did you guys disclose how many were actually delivered?

好，太棒了。關於本季度 Model S 的交付量，你們有透露實際交付了多少輛嗎？

Yes, we delivered in the quarter 10 Model S. We produced a few more and our focus was primarily in providing those for our marketing activity so that we could have more ride and drive events, the Get Amped Tour, that we kicked off, so we really wanted to make sure we had a lot going on for our test tracks.

是的，我們在第 10 季度交付了 Model S。我們又生產了一些，我們的重點主要是為我們的營銷活動提供這些，以便我們可以有更多的騎行和駕駛活動，即我們開始的 Get Amped Tour，所以我們真的很想確保我們的測試軌道有很多事情要做。

Yes, and if I can probably preempt a question that you weren't going to ask it, somebody probably would, we made a total 40 of production vehicles so far.

是的，如果我能搶占一個你不會問的問題，有人可能會問，到目前為止，我們總共生產了 40 輛量產車。

Okay.

好的。

And the production is ramping quite well actually, so it's stepping up, assuming that -- totally aware of how the production steps of. It actually steps up in a sort of geometric or exponential fashion. It is not linear. So we will see quite a dramatic increase in the production rate in the coming months.

實際上，生產正在加速發展，所以它正在加緊，假設 - 完全了解生產步驟。它實際上以一種幾何或指數的方式上升。它不是線性的。因此，我們將在接下來的幾個月中看到生產率的顯著提高。

That's helpful. Thank you. If I could just sneak a couple quick ones in here. In terms of the powertrain units for Toyota, how many units were actually produced this quarter?

這很有幫助。謝謝你。如果我可以在這裡偷偷溜幾個快速的。在豐田的動力總成單元方面，本季度實際生產了多少單元？

We produced roughly 100 units in this quarter and it is a combination of battery packs and drive units, but it was in that ballpark. It is again, a start of the ramp in terms of our production as we've indicated and we will continue to see some growth there.

我們在本季度生產了大約 100 個單元，它是電池組和驅動單元的組合，但它就在那個範圍內。正如我們所指出的那樣，這又是我們產量增長的開始，我們將繼續在那裡看到一些增長。

Great. Last question if I may. How many Roadster vehicles actually remain to be sold throughout the remainder of the year?

偉大的。最後一個問題是否可以。在今年剩下的時間裡，實際上還有多少 Roadster 車輛待售？

We have about 140, 130 to 140 vehicles left to sell and we expect to have those sold out by the end of the year.

我們還有大約 140、130 到 140 輛汽車待售，我們預計這些汽車將在年底前售罄。

Great, thanks very much guys.

太好了，非常感謝各位。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Dan Galves, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的丹·加爾維斯。

Good afternoon guys, thanks for taking my questions.

各位下午好，感謝您提出我的問題。

Hi, Dan.

嗨，丹。

How are you? In terms of the ramp and congratulations on launching the vehicle on time and the great reviews it has been getting. Just wondering if you can talk about what are the key challenges that you've seen or what are the key challenges to come in terms of making this exponential jump in production rate at some point in the quarter? Whether you're making last-minute tweaks in the vehicle or supplier issues or the process at Fremont, if you can take us through with the challenges are ahead in that?

你好嗎？就坡道而言，祝賀您按時推出車輛以及獲得的好評。只是想知道您是否可以談論您所看到的主要挑戰是什麼，或者在本季度的某個時間點實現生產率指數級增長方面的主要挑戰是什麼？無論您是在最後一刻對車輛或供應商問題還是在弗里蒙特的流程進行調整，如果您能帶領我們完成前面的挑戰？

Sure, absolutely. First of all it is worth noting it is actually normal in the auto industry for there to be an exponential growth in production. So it is not unusual. Ours is maybe going over a slightly longer period of time than is normally the case for gasoline cars because in our case we've got something like 97% or 98% of the components of the Model S are new, they are not in any other vehicle. And you can only make cars as fast as your slowest component and we want to make very sure that every car that comes off the line is as close to perfect as possible. In fact, I'm personally inspecting the cars whenever I can. I think it makes sense to take that approach and ensure that when customers receive a car it is as close to flawless as possible. And only grow the production ramp to the degree we are able to maintain an exceptional quality standard rather than to rush into things and then have a great deal of customer unhappiness.

當然，絕對。首先值得注意的是，在汽車行業，產量呈指數增長實際上是正常的。所以這並不罕見。我們的使用時間可能比汽油車的正常情況要長一些，因為在我們的例子中，Model S 的 97% 或 98% 的組件都是新的，它們在其他任何地方都沒有車輛。你只能讓汽車的速度與你最慢的部件一樣快，我們希望確保每一輛下線的汽車都盡可能接近完美。事實上，我會盡可能地親自檢查汽車。我認為採取這種方法並確保客戶收到汽車時盡可能接近完美是有意義的。並且只有在我們能夠保持卓越的質量標準而不是倉促行事然後讓客戶非常不滿意的程度才能提高產量。

When we looked at our cash flow forecast whether we did -- we did a bunch more deliveries in the third quarter or basically if you move several hundred deliveries from third to fourth quarter one way or the other, it doesn't change our cash flow point. And we really need to optimize for our cash flow point. For a cash flow standpoint, and then on the other side making sure that our customers are ecstatic when they get their products. So I actually changed the production ramp to slow it down at the beginning and then ramp at a faster towards the end. I think it is the right decision. Time will tell but I think it is the sensible decision, something that I would wish that somebody did if I was a shareholder in the Company and I am.

當我們查看我們的現金流預測時——我們在第三季度進行了更多交付，或者基本上如果你以一種或另一種方式將數百次交付從第三季度轉移到第四季度，它不會改變我們的現金流觀點。我們真的需要優化我們的現金流點。從現金流的角度來看，另一方面要確保我們的客戶在獲得產品時欣喜若狂。所以我實際上改變了生產斜坡，在開始時放慢速度，然後在接近尾聲時加快速度。我認為這是正確的決定。時間會證明一切，但我認為這是一個明智的決定，如果我是公司的股東，我希望有人這樣做。

That makes sense. Just to follow up on your comments on the cash flow. It looks like liquidity went down by $120 million or approximately in the quarter, you have 265 of liquidity available. It seems like the cash flow point I guess I don't understand what you're talking -- what you mean by the cash flow point doesn't change, it would seem like the longer it takes until you get to the higher production rate, the lower your cash balances would go. So if there's any way to kind of gauge whether the cash burn will slow in the third quarter and if you have a targeted year end level you could provide to us, that would be helpful.

那講得通。只是為了跟進您對現金流的評論。看起來流動性在本季度減少了 1.2 億美元或大約下降了 265 美元。似乎是現金流點我想我不明白您在說什麼-您所說的現金流點的意思沒有改變，似乎需要更長的時間才能達到更高的生產率，您的現金餘額就會越低。因此，如果有任何方法可以衡量第三季度的現金消耗是否會放緩，並且如果您有可以提供給我們的目標年終水平，那將很有幫助。

Dan, I think if this is a managed slowdown then you can manage cash and that's what we have done. We've deliberately upfront plant to do 500 units. The worst thing you can do is plan for 1,000 and then deliver 500, that's when you have the excess cash flow. This is a planned approach which helps us manage our cash. And as we've indicated in the shareholder letter that our expectation based on our plans is that we will achieve pretty close to free cash flow breakeven in Q4. And in Q3, we will see I would say roughly along the same lines as Q2, maybe slightly higher, but considering all of that and given our cash resources we feel pretty comfortable that we have sufficient liquidity to get to profitability next year.

丹，我認為如果這是一個可控的放緩，那麼你可以管理現金，這就是我們所做的。我們特意預先安排工廠生產 500 台。你能做的最糟糕的事情是計劃 1000 個然後交付 500 個，這就是你有多餘的現金流的時候。這是一種有計劃的方法，可幫助我們管理現金。正如我們在股東信中指出的那樣，我們基於我們的計劃的預期是，我們將在第四季度實現非常接近自由現金流的盈虧平衡。在第三季度，我們會看到我會說與第二季度大致相同，可能會略高一些，但考慮到所有這些並考慮到我們的現金資源，我們對我們有足夠的流動性來實現明年盈利感到非常滿意。

Yes, if you move several hundred cars from one quarter to the next, it actually does not change out our cash flow point. That's driven more by working capital requirements at the end of the year. When we are producing thousands of cars, almost a couple thousand cars a month. So it seemed like why optimize for, why try to push product on customers that maybe are not as perfect as possible. If it does not actually yield anything tangible.

是的，如果您將數百輛汽車從一個季度轉移到另一個季度，它實際上並不會改變我們的現金流點。這更多是由年底的營運資金需求推動的。當我們生產數千輛汽車時，每個月幾乎可以生產數千輛汽車。因此，似乎為什麼要優化，為什麼要嘗試將產品推向可能並不完美的客戶。如果它實際上沒有產生任何有形的東西。

Got you. I guess one more on the subject. It seems like different than most automaker' s, you I think recognize revenue when the vehicles deliver to the customer not when it is shipped off the factory to a dealer. So I guess what I'm getting at is you probably, if you're going to deliver 500 in the third quarter you're probably going to produce quite a bit more than that? I guess is that true? And then where do you expect inventory to be once you get to close to your targeted run rate of 5,000 quarter?

得到你。我想還有一個關於這個主題的。這似乎與大多數汽車製造商的不同，我認為您在將車輛交付給客戶時確認收入，而不是在將其從工廠運往經銷商時確認收入。所以我想我的意思是你可能，如果你要在第三季度交付 500 台，你的產量可能會比這多得多？我想這是真的嗎？然後，一旦您接近 5,000 個季度的目標運行率，您期望庫存在哪裡？

I think it is probable that we will produce more than 500, but it is always a little tricky -- essentially if you imagine the production ramp is this quite sharp S-curve and you sort of, as you pick a point, an arbitrary point on that S-curve, on the steep course portion of the S-curve you can actually see a quite significant movement of units. It is hard to predict exactly where things will be on that steep portion of the S-curve, but I'm not sure it's relevant, because you get to the flat portion, the high portion of the S-curve, that point is much more predictable. And that is sort of the point we feel really confident about getting to in the fourth quarter. And I think it is the more relevant thing, like if you were to at present value of the cash flows and move the stuff around, it doesn't change the effective cap of the Company if one is doing the analysis correctly. So I think it is probable we will do that, but it is not certain, but even if, one way or the other, it is not going to make much of a difference.

我認為我們很可能會生產超過 500 個，但這總是有點棘手——基本上，如果你想像生產斜坡是這個非常陡峭的 S 曲線，並且當你選擇一個點時，你有點像任意點在那個 S 曲線上，在 S 曲線的陡峭部分，您實際上可以看到單位的相當大的移動。很難準確預測 S 曲線陡峭部分的位置，但我不確定它是否相關，因為你到達平坦部分，S 曲線的高部分，那個點很重要更可預測。這就是我們對在第四季度達到目標感到非常有信心的一點。而且我認為這是更相關的事情，例如，如果您要按現金流量的現值計算並轉移東西，如果分析正確，它不會改變公司的有效上限。所以我認為我們很可能會這樣做，但不確定，但即使以一種或另一種方式，它也不會產生太大的影響。

Okay.

好的。

Elon, and Dan to your specific question, although we recognize revenue when the customer gets the car, the gap is not much, at least in the beginning. A lot of our customers are in California. Deliveries happen immediately and even if it is long distance, it's just a matter of a couple more days, a few days. It is not that dramatically different.

Elon 和 Dan 針對您的具體問題，雖然我們在客戶獲得汽車時確認收入，但差距並不大，至少在開始時是這樣。我們的很多客戶都在加利福尼亞。交貨立即發生，即使距離很遠，也只需幾天，幾天。這並沒有太大的不同。

Okay, great. Thanks for all the helpful color on that. Appreciate it.

好，太棒了。感謝所有有用的顏色。欣賞它。

One thing I wanted to reemphasize, if people recall that one of the things I've been really emphatic about and those things in 2013 we will produce at least 20,000 units and that our gross margin will exceed 25%. I also said that we would start delivery at -- no later than July and those are the three things that I said we would -- that I was highly confident we would do. There are other things that are sort of nice to have and we'd like to do and maybe this will happen, but those are the important ones and we start deliveries in June so we're ahead of July. And I think we're going to exceed 20,000 units next year and exceed 25% gross margin. And both, those are the things that I think you should really hold me and Tesla to.

我想再次強調一件事，如果人們記得我一直非常強調的一件事，以及 2013 年的那些事情，我們將至少生產 20,000 台，我們的毛利率將超過 25%。我還說我們將在不遲於 7 月開始交付，這就是我說過我們會做的三件事——我非常有信心我們會做到。還有其他一些很好的東西，我們想做，也許這會發生，但這些是重要的，我們在 6 月開始交付，所以我們提前到了 7 月。我認為明年我們的銷量將超過 20,000 台，毛利率將超過 25%。兩者都是我認為你應該真正讓我和特斯拉去做的事情。

That's the flat portion of the --

那是——

That's the thing that really matters, yes. Absolutely.

這才是真正重要的事情，是的。絕對地。

I agree, thanks a lot.

我同意，非常感謝。

All right.

好的。

Ben Schuman from Pacific Crest Securities.

來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Ben Schuman。

Hi, thanks, guys. Elon you talked about changing the ramp a little bit, can you specifically address what is driving that in terms of the quality control factors that you are focusing on with that revised timeline?

嗨，謝謝，伙計們。 Elon，您談到了稍微改變坡道，您能否具體說明在修訂後的時間表中您關注的質量控制因素方面是什麼推動了這一點？

I can talk a little bit about it although it is easy to get lost in the weeds because it is not as though there's any one big thing. It is a bunch, it's like a couple hundred little knick-knacky things. One example is there's the chrome plating of the door handle. We just couldn't meet our quality standards. There were little tiny pits in the plating that were unacceptable for us so we had to switch that to a different plating supplier. Right.

我可以稍微談談它，雖然它很容易迷失在雜草中，因為它不像有任何一件大事。它是一堆，就像幾百個小玩意兒。一個例子是門把手的鍍鉻。我們只是無法達到我們的質量標準。電鍍中有一些小坑，我們無法接受，因此我們不得不將其切換到不同的電鍍供應商。正確的。

Things like the banana leaf interior trim, when I was shown a sample of that it looked good, but when I saw it in the car it did not look good, so I canned it. We are not going to deliver an option that doesn't look good and unfortunately, that was not clear until we saw it in a car which was late in the game. So there's some sort of things like that where we have to do last-minute maneuvering. The decisions are made absolutely with respect to ensuring that the product is the best possible product. That's what we are aiming at. Great companies are just build around great products, or services and so we have to super focused on ensuring that we have a product that's not slightly better but substantially better. I think we have that actually. If you look at the reviews, that's the response we are getting.

像香蕉葉內飾這樣的東西，當我看到它的樣品時，它看起來不錯，但是當我在車上看到它時，它看起來並不好，所以我把它裝了起來。我們不會提供看起來不太好的選項，不幸的是，直到我們在比賽后期的汽車中看到它才清楚。所以有一些類似的事情，我們必須在最後一刻進行機動。這些決定絕對是為了確保產品是最好的產品。這就是我們的目標。偉大的公司只是圍繞著偉大的產品或服務建立起來的，所以我們必須非常專注於確保我們擁有的產品不是稍微好一點，而是實質上更好。我認為我們實際上有。如果您查看評論，這就是我們得到的回應。

Okay, great. Can you address how cancellations are trending now that more and more of those finalize your order emails are going out?

好，太棒了。隨著越來越多的最終確定您的訂單電子郵件正在發出，您能否說明取消的趨勢？

I think overall, Ben, we are fighting that cancellations as a percentage of our reservations is falling fairly steady the last few months. Clearly, customers have to make that decision, but we're not seeing anything which raises any red flags in our minds.

我認為總體而言，本，我們正在努力爭取取消預訂佔預訂的百分比在過去幾個月中相當穩定地下降。顯然，客戶必須做出這個決定，但我們沒有看到任何在我們腦海中引發任何危險信號的事情。

Quite frankly, the thing that I get bugged about is not cancellations, it is people who want their car sooner and who want -- a day does not go by when we get several requests from quite senior people or celebrities or whatever saying isn't there some way they can move up on the list. That's not the cancellations that are concerned. We do not have a demand problem. Hopefully people can see that this is -- we obviously do not have a demand problem. One of the biggest reasons people don't put down a reservation payment for a Model S is because you have to wait a year almost, 10, 11 months. If you need a car, you need a car. So we actually need to focus our energies heavily on the production ramp and maintaining quality and achieving gross margin. Those are really our issues, it is demand generation. George is doing such an awesome job, I don't have to worry about that.

坦率地說，我被煩擾的不是取消，而是那些更早想要他們的車並且想要的人——當我們收到一些來自相當資深的人或名人的請求或任何說法時，一天不會過去他們可以通過某種方式在列表中上移。這不是擔心的取消。我們沒有需求問題。希望人們能看到這是——我們顯然沒有需求問題。人們不為 Model S 支付預訂付款的最大原因之一是因為您必須等待將近一年，10 個月、11 個月。如果你需要一輛車，你需要一輛車。因此，我們實際上需要將精力主要集中在生產斜坡上，保持質量和實現毛利率。這些確實是我們的問題，它是需求的產生。喬治做得非常棒，我不必擔心。

Okay, great. Just one more, we've seen some concept cars from other manufacturers, high-performance EVs, things like that but nothing really close to production that compares to the Model S in terms of performance characteristics, things like that. Who do think from a competitive standpoint is closest to Tesla, especially on the powertrain side of things and how far behind are they?

好，太棒了。還有一個，我們已經看到了其他製造商的一些概念車，高性能電動汽車，類似的東西，但在性能特徵方面，沒有什麼能與 Model S 相比真正接近生產，類似的東西。從競爭的角度來看，誰認為最接近特斯拉，尤其是在動力總成方面，他們落後了多遠？

Well, the next best powertrain's are the ones that we provide our partners. Then after that, you fall a long way. Then you're at the Leaf, I suppose, which obviously has some range issues and it's not a fun car to drive. So it sounds like -- I actually do think that Nissan should double down on their electric vehicle investment and just need to improve the product, it's not where it needs to be. But the way to think about the Model S is really not from the standpoint of how does it compare to other electric cars, that's not really how -- why people are buying our car, they're buying a car because they're looking at this and saying it's the best car. Would you look at the characteristics of the vehicle, whether it is aesthetics, safety, handling, performance, the user interface and the functionality and the technology in the car, fit and finish.

好吧，下一個最好的動力總成是我們為合作夥伴提供的動力總成。然後在那之後，你跌倒了很長一段路。然後你在Leaf，我想，它顯然有一些範圍問題，而且它不是一輛有趣的車。所以聽起來 - 我實際上確實認為日產應該在他們的電動汽車投資上加倍投入，只需要改進產品，這不是它需要的地方。但思考 Model S 的方式並不是從它與其他電動汽車相比如何的角度來看，這並不是真正的——為什麼人們購買我們的汽車，他們購買汽車是因為他們在看這並說這是最好的汽車。你會看看車輛的特性，無論是美學、安全性、操控性、性能、用戶界面以及車內的功能和技術、合身性和完成度。

A whole dimension against which you would evaluate the car as a product, including taking all those characteristics and integrating them and saying, does this as an integrated system work because sometimes you can have a mixture of ingredients that don't come together into a good product. So really, people are buying our car because they think it is better than buying any other car. In that price range. They're selecting against cars in that price range, not electric cars.

您可以將汽車作為產品評估的整個維度，包括獲取所有這些特徵並將它們整合併說，這是否可以作為一個集成系統工作，因為有時您可能會混合各種成分，這些成分不會組合成一個好的產品產品。所以說真的，人們買我們的車是因為他們認為這比買任何其他的車都好。在那個價格範圍內。他們選擇的是該價格範圍內的汽車，而不是電動汽車。

Great, thanks.

太謝謝了。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

亞當喬納斯，摩根士丹利。

Hey, guys. Going to go back to the point about the Model S, S-curve ramp from 3Q to 4Q. So you are at 10 cars a week now, I guess you will be averaging just over 40 a week in 3Q and then to ramp to an average of 375 a week in 4Q to kind of make the 5,000 full-year number. So I totally take on board your point about the shape of the S-curve, and it is more of like a switch than a ramp if I'm not mistaken. But in order to make sense of this I think at the vertical portion of the S-curve what would have to happen pretty, not only pretty quickly, but very early in the fourth quarter, so or else you will be implying an exit rate that would be way, way over 375 a week. Which would be implying I guess, maybe this is what you're implying, that you'd be doing way over a full-year clip of 20,000 a year. So is there any other way you can give us an idea, and if you can't I understand it, but what your exit rate might be in the third quarter or your entry rate in the fourth, or am I right to be thinking that, that, in order to do your 5,000, that switch, that geometric switch has to be pretty early in 4Q?

大家好。回到關於 Model S 的點，從 3Q 到 4Q 的 S 曲線斜坡。所以你現在每周有 10 輛汽車，我猜你將在第三季度平均每週超過 40 輛，然後在第四季度增加到平均每週 375 輛，以達到 5,000 輛全年的數字。所以我完全同意你關於 S 曲線形狀的觀點，如果我沒記錯的話，它更像是一個開關而不是斜坡。但為了理解這一點，我認為在 S 曲線的垂直部分，必鬚髮生的事情會很順利，不僅很快，而且在第四季度的早期，否則你將暗示退出率將是方式，方式超過 375 一周。這意味著我猜，也許這就是你所暗示的，你將在一年中超過 20,000 的全年剪輯中做得很好。那麼你有沒有其他方法可以給我們一個想法，如果你不能理解它，但是你第三季度的退出率或第四季度的進入率是多少，或者我這樣想是對的嗎，那，為了做你的 5,000，那個開關，那個幾何開關必須在 4Q 很早？

Yes, I think you're essentially right about counts. We will be at a higher production rate than 20,000 a year at the end of the year. And --

是的，我認為您在計數方面基本上是正確的。到年底，我們的生產速度將超過每年 20,000 個。和 -

Would that then level off though or is that kind to fill, is that something that would be then sustained in like a horizontal portion of that curve?

然後會趨於平穩還是需要填充，然後會像該曲線的水平部分那樣持續存在嗎？

It depends on how demand is looking.

這取決於需求的情況。

Okay.

好的。

Right now, demand is looking good.

目前，需求看起來不錯。

Okay.

好的。

If demand is looking good, why level off?

如果需求看起來不錯，為什麼要趨於平穩？

I agree 100%. So that is part of the implication is that it makes the 20,000 next year really like that, at least really you're emphasizing that with what you are implying?

我同意 100%。所以這是暗示的一部分，它使明年的 20,000 人真的像那樣，至少你真的用你的暗示強調了這一點？

Yes, when I say at least I mean --

是的，當我說至少我的意思是——

You don't mean 20,001. Understood. Then my last question is given the enormous interest in the Model S, and also the very strong interest in the Model X and the chance, what looks like the opportunity to launch the Gen 3, at least according to some comments Franz made, maybe as early as 2015, earlier than many expected. This might accelerate some of your capital needs to give these products the full resources. So you throw in some uncertain economic conditions and can you see the rationale for potentially raising a bit more equity capital as sort of an insurance policy to make sure all this hard work, and great work, and momentum isn't unnecessarily put at too much risk due to events outside of the Company's control?

你的意思不是20,001。明白了。然後我的最後一個問題是對 Model S 的巨大興趣，以及對 Model X 的強烈興趣和機會，看起來有機會推出 Gen 3，至少根據 Franz 的一些評論，也許是早在 2015 年，比許多人預期的要早。這可能會加速您的一些資本需求，以便為這些產品提供全部資源。因此，如果您考慮到一些不確定的經濟狀況，您是否可以將可能籌集更多股權資本的理由視為一種保險政策，以確保所有這些辛勤工作、出色工作和勢頭不會不必要地投入太多因公司無法控制的事件而導致的風險？

Yes. I actually I think that there is arguably some merit to raising incremental funding just to protect against an unforeseen event. I do want to emphasize that our cash flow projections require no funding raise at all.

是的。實際上，我認為籌集增量資金可以說是有一些好處的，只是為了防止發生意外事件。我想強調的是，我們的現金流預測根本不需要籌集資金。

Right.

正確的。

So if we do not raise any funding we can reach cash flow positive with decent margin. That's not to say that there isn't some merit in raising a little bit of funding maybe just to increase the cushion, that something we are debating internally and it is something we may do, but I do want to emphasize it is not something we have to do.

因此，如果我們不籌集任何資金，我們可以以可觀的利潤率實現正現金流。這並不是說籌集一點資金可能只是為了增加緩衝沒有任何好處，這是我們內部正在辯論的事情，這是我們可以做的事情，但我確實想強調這不是我們要做的事情必須要做。

Right. It is more -- it is a cushion, it would be for risk management and more opportunistic to kind of create, to kind of fuel even greater growth opportunity, is that how you'd pitch it?

正確的。它更多——它是一個緩衝，用於風險管理，更有機會創造，為更大的增長機會提供燃料，你是這樣推銷的嗎？

Yes. Exactly. In order for us to -- let's say in order for us to not raise any funding we would probably spend at a sub optimal rate on future programs.

是的。確切地。為了讓我們——讓我們說，為了不籌集任何資金，我們可能會以次優的速度在未來的項目上花費。

Right.

正確的。

So arguably you'd want to spend at the optimal rate and, yes.

所以可以說你想以最優的價格消費，是的。

Would you say that it would be more of the early feedback on opportunity on the Model X that would potentially drive that opportunity, or is it the timing and opportunity on the Gen 3 or is it a bit of both or all the above?

您是否會說更多關於 Model X 機會的早期反饋可能會推動這個機會，或者是 Gen 3 的時機和機會，還是兩者兼而有之？

Well, if we were to raise a small amount of money I emphasize that, the only two things we are considering are raising zero money or a small amount. It is not, there's not some third option. Then a very small amount of money, then it would be probably half of if for cushion value, and then half of it for future projects which would be the Model X and the Gen 3.

好吧，如果我們要籌集少量資金，我強調，我們正在考慮的唯一兩件事是籌集零資金或少量資金。不是，沒有第三種選擇。然後是很小的一筆錢，那麼它可能是緩衝價值的一半，然後是未來項目的一半，比如 Model X 和 Gen 3。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

We have to come up with a better name than Gen 3 though.

不過，我們必須想出一個比 Gen 3 更好的名字。

I'm sure you will. Get George on the case. (laughter). Thanks very much.

我相信你會的。讓喬治處理這個案子。 （笑聲）。非常感謝。

Suggestions welcome.

歡迎提出建議。

Carter Driscoll, CapStone Investments.

卡特德里斯科爾，CapStone 投資。

Good afternoon gentlemen. I was just kind of following up on the previous questions. Do you imagine you will disclose the ramp maybe say throughout the third quarter so we can get comfortable that you're going to be at that 375 pace above in the fourth quarter? Or how do you expect to communicate with the street that you're progressing along the lines that you are hoping for?

先生們下午好。我只是在跟進前面的問題。您是否認為您會在整個第三季度披露斜坡，以便我們可以放心，您將在第四季度以高於 375 的速度增長？或者您希望如何與您正在沿著您希望的路線前進的街道進行交流？

I think we continue to have Investor visits here. Clearly, as deliveries progress you will get a sense of it.

我認為我們將繼續在這裡進行投資者訪問。顯然，隨著交付的進展，您會有所了解。

There will be cars on the road. That will be a huge clue.

路上會有車。這將是一個巨大的線索。

Right. (laughter). We'll definitely make sure over time we are communicating how things are progressing.

正確的。 （笑聲）。隨著時間的推移，我們一定會確保我們正在交流事情的進展情況。

Right. I think actually people could track it by just figuring out -- has cars that have just been delivered, and there you go.

正確的。我認為實際上人們可以通過找出剛剛交付的汽車來追踪它，然後就可以了。

Fair enough. Can you talk about your fast charging initiatives and any developments there?

很公平。你能談談你的快速充電計劃和那裡的任何發展嗎？

We're just finishing up some construction activity on that. It is looking like probably a September event but that's contingent on finishing some construction and getting all the permits and whatnot for the superchargers. But I'm really excited about that announcement. I think it is way cooler than anyone realizes. It is -- I think it is going to have a profound effect on people, on how the public sees electric vehicles.

我們剛剛完成了一些建設活動。看起來可能是 9 月的活動，但這取決於完成一些建設並獲得所有許可以及增壓器的其他東西。但我對這一宣布感到非常興奮。我認為它比任何人意識到的都要酷。它是——我認為這將對人們產生深遠的影響，影響公眾如何看待電動汽車。

Okay. Can you talk --

好的。你現在方便說話嗎 -

There's going to be a few surprises there. Almost no one knows the full story, there'll be some cool things there.

那裡會有一些驚喜。幾乎沒有人知道完整的故事，那裡會有一些很酷的東西。

Okay. Good enough. We will wait for that announcement. Can you talk with us about the warranty. There's been a lot of discussion, myself, I've had discussions with some of your sales people, and I don't think people fully understand the warranty side for battery versus the vehicle itself. Can you just remind everyone what the battery and the vehicle warranty contains right now?

好的。夠好了。我們將等待該公告。你能和我們談談保修嗎？我自己進行了很多討論，我與你們的一些銷售人員進行了討論，我認為人們並不完全了解電池與車輛本身的保修方面。你能提醒大家現在電池和車輛保修包含什麼嗎？

Sure. For the battery warranty we essentially mirrored language that Nissan was using and I think maybe the Volt is also using some of the language, so which is to say that the battery is warrantied for 8 years. Any amount of miles you can really put on it, actually, I think, depending on which version. It's unlimited for the 300-mile range version, you just won't -- unless you torture yourself, you won't be able to put enough miles on that to matter. And I think it's 100,000, 150,000 something like that. For the 160-mile version, you really have to be doing a lot of traveling within city to do 100,000 miles in 8 years.

當然。對於電池保修，我們基本上反映了日產使用的語言，我認為可能 Volt 也使用了一些語言，也就是說電池的保修期為 8 年。實際上，我認為，您可以真正投入多少里程，這取決於哪個版本。 300 英里範圍的版本是無限的，你不會——除非你折磨自己，否則你將無法在這上面投入足夠的里程。我認為是 100,000，150,000 之類的。對於 160 英里的版本，您確實必須在城市內進行很多旅行才能在 8 年內完成 100,000 英里。

Where the pack energy level will be at that point, it is going to vary depending upon what sort of environment the pack has experienced and what sort of driver the person has been. In much of the same way as that of an engine after eight years is going to depend on whether someone was driving it hard or not and what sort of environment it saw. It will still be a very useable pack and we are expecting the packs to actually have a useful life that's somewhere around double the warranty level. People probably want to just replace it sooner than that, but these really last for a long time. And even our first-generation pack in the Roadster, we've got one customer in Europe who just passed the 200,000 kilometer mark, and he is not someone who drives the car slowly. In fact, he passed the 200,000 kilometer mark in a race.

電池組能量水平在那個點上的位置會有所不同，具體取決於電池組所經歷的環境類型以及該人所駕駛的類型。與八年後的發動機大致相同，這將取決於某人是否努力駕駛它以及它所看到的環境類型。它仍然是一個非常有用的包，我們預計這些包的使用壽命實際上是保修水平的兩倍左右。人們可能只想早點更換它，但這些確實會持續很長時間。即使是我們在 Roadster 中的第一代套件，我們在歐洲也有一位客戶剛剛超過 200,000 公里大關，而且他並不是一個開慢車的人。事實上，他在一場比賽中超過了 200,000 公里。

Sorry to interrupt but that kind of leads to my next question. Is the relationship you have with Wells, and because of what you just stated, that you believe the battery pack is going to last twice what it's currently warrantied for. I'm assuming that the residual value, that price point given, there just aren't a lot of comparable vehicles to be able to set what the residual value is going to be and therefore, the leasing terms. But you feel comfortable that's not a sticking point as you suddenly saw people wanting to lease the vehicle even though you don't expect that to be the case for probably 12 to 18 months at a minimum?

很抱歉打斷，但這會導致我的下一個問題。是您與 Wells 的關係嗎，並且由於您剛才所說的，您相信電池組的使用壽命是目前保修的兩倍。我假設剩餘價值，給出的價格點，沒有很多可比的車輛能夠設定剩餘價值，因此，租賃條款。但是你覺得這不是一個癥結所在，因為你突然看到有人想要租用這輛車，即使你不認為這種情況至少會持續 12 到 18 個月？

Right. Exactly. We don't need to lease a single car until maybe second half of next year at the soonest. We think it could just be only sales, but we have had many discussions about residual value. The thing that's important about residual value is just to make sure that the depreciation of the battery pack isn't -- it essentially matches that of the rest of the car. And if you had a gasoline car, after 10 years, it's on the order of 10% to 15% of its original value. So, it's depreciated almost down to nothing.

正確的。確切地。我們最快要到明年下半年才需要租一輛汽車。我們認為這可能只是銷售，但我們已經就剩餘價值進行了很多討論。關於剩餘價值，重要的是確保電池組不會貶值——它基本上與汽車其餘部分的貶值相匹配。如果你有一輛汽油車，10 年後，它的價值大約是其原始價值的 10% 到 15%。因此，它幾乎貶值到零。

Do you expect that to be comparable or do you expect residual value to the higher?

您希望這具有可比性還是您希望剩餘價值更高？

I actually think it will be higher. Because the other thing is, once you put in a new pack into the car, it will actually be better than new from a range standpoint.

我實際上認為它會更高。因為另一件事是，一旦您將新包裝放入汽車中，從續航里程的角度來看，它實際上會比新包裝更好。

Okay.

好的。

You can continue to recognize the savings versus fueling your car with gas over the next 10 years, or whatever so you get huge benefits of that.

在接下來的 10 年中，您可以繼續認識到與用汽油為汽車加油相比所節省的費用，或者其他任何事情，這樣您就可以從中獲得巨大的好處。

Gasoline is probably not getting cheaper in the long run. It is, the price of gasoline is an upward sloping sine wave.

從長遠來看，汽油可能不會變得更便宜。也就是說，汽油價格是向上傾斜的正弦波。

I agree with that. Have you guys actually booked any warranty expense in anticipation of having to replace any of the batteries?

我同意這一點。你們是否真的預訂了任何保修費用以預期必須更換任何電池？

Yes, with each car there's a warranty reserve.

是的，每輛車都有保修準備金。

Warranty reserve for each of the cars. (multiple speakers). That's related to the entire vehicle, not just to the battery. Just to clarify your other point with Wells Fargo, we are not offering lease financing. It's traditional retail financing, so residual values or leasing is not really an issue in our present offering with Wells Fargo.

每輛車的保修儲備。 （多個揚聲器）。這與整個車輛有關，而不僅僅是電池。只是為了澄清您與富國銀行的另一點，我們不提供租賃融資。這是傳統的零售融資，因此在我們目前與富國銀行合作的產品中，剩餘價值或租賃並不是真正的問題。

With Athlon it is.

速龍就是這樣。

Athlon is offering their own lease program in Europe, that's correct for corporate clients.

Athlon 在歐洲提供自己的租賃計劃，這對企業客戶來說是正確的。

Yes, so we did sign our first Model S leasing deal in Europe.

是的，所以我們確實在歐洲簽署了第一筆 Model S 租賃協議。

My last question for before I pass on is just, have you seen a mix of reservations change as 2012 has unfolded, are you still seeing a similar rate of the Signature Series versus the other range models or has that stayed fairly consistent? Can you talk about your expectations may be about how that may change over time as well?

在我繼續之前，我的最後一個問題是，隨著 2012 年的展開，您是否看到預訂量發生了變化，您是否仍然看到 Signature 系列與其他範圍模型的比率相似，或者保持相當一致？您能否談談您的期望可能會隨著時間的推移如何變化？

Absolutely. I think it is fortunate that the Signature Series has been sold out for months, for several months now. And not only is the Signature Series sold out, we have a long waiting list for people to get on the Signature Series and arguments about what place they are on the waiting list. We're sold out at EU on Signature Series as well.

絕對地。我認為簽名系列已經售罄數月，現在已經好幾個月了，這是幸運的。不僅簽名系列已售罄，我們還有一個很長的等待名單供人們加入簽名系列，並爭論他們在等待名單上的位置。我們在歐盟的 Signature 系列也已售罄。

Basic we all the reservations that we are getting now are for general production, and our customers when they make a reservation are basically just getting in the queue for a car, they're not locking in which battery pack size they are getting so that we will find out over time when they start to lock in their specific order.

基本上，我們現在獲得的所有預訂都是針對一般生產的，而我們的客戶在進行預訂時基本上只是在排隊買車，他們並沒有鎖定他們獲得的電池組尺寸，因此我們當他們開始鎖定特定順序時，會隨著時間的推移而發現。

On the higher end than we expected, but that could change. It is hard to say as you get, to general production whether people are going to go to cars with fewer options, but the trend has been that they are picking more options than we expected.

比我們預期的要高端，但這可能會改變。對於一般生產來說，很難說人們是否會選擇選擇更少的汽車，但趨勢是他們選擇的選擇比我們預期的要多。

I'm trying to get at, given you have a fairly significant amount of your cash in reservation payments, just trying to understand how that mix has potentially shifted over time. All right, I appreciate your time. I'll pass it along. Thank you.

鑑於您有相當多的現金用於預訂付款，我試圖了解這一點，只是想了解這種組合如何隨著時間的推移而發生變化。好吧，我很感謝你的時間。我會傳下去的。謝謝你。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Amir Rozwadowski, Barclays.

阿米爾·羅茲瓦多夫斯基，巴克萊銀行。

Thank you very much and good afternoon folks. So just touching on the production ramp a bit more, Elon. Just want to clarify, so in the past you had said really that 20,000 production line is really focused on sort of one shift operating at one point in time. What type of flexibility do you have to either add additional personnel, overtime, or anything along those lines in order to meet your production targets?

非常感謝你們，大家下午好。因此，埃隆，請多談談生產坡道。只是想澄清一下，所以過去你真的說過，20,000 條生產線實際上是專注於在一個時間點運行的一種輪班制。為了滿足您的生產目標，您需要增加額外的人員、加班或任何類似的東西，您需要什麼樣的靈活性？

It is almost entirely on one shift. There are a few areas where we had some capital intense equipment where it is on two shifts. But that's easily addressed to expand volume. I think, in principle we could I think comfortably have a production rate -- that's 50% greater than 20,000. I hesitate to predict of when in the year we would be sort of comfortable maintaining that at a steady pace, but I think that's not, loot at it this way, at the end of next year I think that there's a pretty good likelihood that we're at least at the 30,000 unit a year run rate at the end of next year.

它幾乎完全在一個班次上。在一些地區，我們有一些資本密集型設備，它是兩班制的。但這很容易解決以擴大數量。我認為，原則上我們可以輕鬆地擁有一個生產率——比 20,000 高 50%。我猶豫要不要預測今年什麼時候我們會以一種穩定的速度保持這種狀態，但我認為不是，這樣掠奪吧，在明年年底我認為我們很有可能'到明年年底，每年至少有 30,000 個單位的運行速度。

I think maybe more generally, Amir, we have flexibility. In the flexibility allows us to do a lot of things, overtime, add second shift, we can do a lot so I think whatever the target, it will be what they are depending on the demand, we have flexibility.

我想也許更一般地說，阿米爾，我們有靈活性。在靈活性上，我們可以做很多事情，加班，加二班，我們可以做很多事情，所以我認為無論目標是什麼，這將取決於他們的需求，我們有靈活性。

Yes, it is not totally willy-nilly. You do need to hire a second shift, you need to get them trained and you need to make sure you're making the quality on second shift, you don't want to have cars that are in the second shift that are worse than cars in the first shift. So it doesn't require a significant capital injection, in fact, miniscule capital injection to increase the rate which is great. So there's an upside opportunity there. But I don't want to trivialize how you do that, just to find good people and get them trained and make sure everything is good and you don't have the B-team on the second shift, that's very important.

是的，這並非完全任性。您確實需要雇用第二班，您需要對他們進行培訓，並且您需要確保您在第二班時的質量，您不希望在第二班時擁有比汽車更差的汽車在第一班。所以它不需要大量的注資，實際上，微不足道的注資就能提高利率，這很好。所以那裡有一個上行機會。但我不想輕視你是如何做到這一點的，只是為了找到好人，讓他們接受培訓，確保一切都很好，而且你沒有第二班的 B 團隊，這非常重要。

Certainly I appreciate that color. And if thinking about the demands on your cash for the near term, I was wondering when do you expect to start paying back the DoE loan?

當然，我很欣賞這種顏色。如果考慮近期對您現金的需求，我想知道您預計何時開始償還能源部貸款？

We start paying that back in December of this year.

我們從今年 12 月開始償還。

We're required to be paid back in December. We will pay it back no later than December. We will start paying it back no later than December.

我們需要在 12 月還款。我們將在 12 月之前償還。我們將在 12 月之前開始還款。

Then its quarterly payments thereafter.

然後是之後的季度付款。

Okay, so in terms of the demands on your cash that's factored into your expectations for where you will end fourth-quarter cash at in terms of a relatively okay position?

好的，那麼就您對現金的需求而言，您對第四季度現金在相對較好的位置結束時的預期是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Then lastly if I may, we've certainly have seen a number of new stores open up in terms of building sort of retail points for you folks as well as building brand awareness. How should we think about the trajectory for OpEx over the course of perhaps this year and the duration of 2013? What is sort of the plan at this point?

好的。最後，如果可以的話，我們當然已經看到許多新店開業，為你們建立零售點以及建立品牌知名度。我們應該如何看待今年和 2013 年期間運營支出的軌跡？目前的計劃是什麼？

Yes, I think, as we've indicated in a shareholder letter, certainly our R&D expense will drop as a lot of those costs move into cost of goods sold. And on the SG&A side as we opened stores, and there an acceleration there, we will see a moderate increase in our sales expenses, I would say -- in the 10% to 15% range or so as we add in more stores.

是的，我認為，正如我們在股東信中所指出的那樣，隨著這些成本中的大部分轉入銷售成本，我們的研發費用肯定會下降。在 SG&A 方面，當我們開店時，我們會看到銷售費用的適度增長，我會說——在 10% 到 15% 的範圍內，因為我們增加了更多的商店。

Stores are really kicking butt, George, is there any color you'd like to add to stores? We just opened the Third Street Promenade store on Santa Monica Boulevard, in people are in the LA area and want to get a sense for the latest Tesla store technology.

商店真的很牛逼，喬治，你有什麼想要添加到商店的顏色嗎？我們剛剛在聖莫尼卡大道開設了第三街長廊商店，人們在洛杉磯地區，想了解最新的特斯拉商店技術。

I think our goal with the stores, the rest of this year is to try to address some new markets. One of the markets that we really haven't solidified up until now is that Northeast corridor and our goal is to open several new stores in that corridor in order to hit one of the most densely populated areas of the country and try to do it in sort of an accelerated way. Because we think there's lots and lots of potential up there and what's really nice is we already have an embedded number of people there. The beauty of our model is that we already know where the first 12,000 cars are going, we know where customers who are interested in us live, so we can use that data to open up stores because if there's certain people there who are already with very little effort already reserving our car, think what happens if we actually do put some effort in there. And that's what we are doing this year, is we're hitting the hottest spots where we have really strong demand already in order to leverage that and that word-of-mouth from customer to customer and the way people, the people who have already gotten their car, they are like kids in a candy store with their car. They cannot wait to drive it, they cannot wait to take people to dinner. They cannot wait to take people out.

我認為我們與商店的目標，今年剩下的時間是嘗試解決一些新市場。到目前為止，我們真正尚未鞏固的市場之一是東北走廊，我們的目標是在該走廊開設幾家新店，以打入該國人口最稠密的地區之一，並嘗試在一種加速的方式。因為我們認為那裡有很多很多的潛力，真正好的是我們已經有很多人在那裡。我們模型的美妙之處在於，我們已經知道前 12,000 輛汽車的去向，我們知道對我們感興趣的客戶住在哪裡，所以我們可以使用這些數據來開店，因為如果那裡有某些人已經非常很少努力已經預訂了我們的車，想想如果我們真的在那裡付出一些努力會發生什麼。這就是我們今年正在做的事情，我們正在觸及我們已經擁有真正強勁需求的最熱門地區，以便利用這一點以及從客戶到客戶的口碑以及人們的方式，已經有的人有了他們的車，他們就像孩子們在糖果店裡開著他們的車。他們迫不及待地想開車，他們迫不及待地帶人去吃飯。他們迫不及待地要把人帶出去。

So when we put more stores in and amongst where those people are and they have a place to gather and share stories and stuff, that's what we are doing with the store growth this year. We're focusing on places where we know there's existing demand in order to leverage it more. A lot in the Northeast, we're going to open another one down in Miami Beach and the traffic through the stores has been incredible. I think you probably saw in the shareholder letter that year-to-date we've had over 1 million people go through the new design stores in North America. That's an incredible number. They keeping bringing more people, more friends and stuff like that so the stores are really performing well and I think by going after the Northeast corridor we will substantially make a difference a year and. I have a goal in this year that in the month of December we can have 1 million people go through our stores in one month. It is that crazy of a number. That's the kind of thing we are shooting for.

因此，當我們在這些人所在的地方開設更多商店並且他們有一個收集和分享故事和東西的地方時，這就是我們今年對商店增長所做的事情。我們專注於我們知道存在現有需求的地方，以便更多地利用它。在東北部的很多地方，我們將在邁阿密海灘再開一家，商店的客流量令人難以置信。我想你可能在股東信中看到，今年迄今為止，我們已經有超過 100 萬人通過北美的新設計商店。這是一個不可思議的數字。他們不斷帶來更多的人，更多的朋友和類似的東西，所以商店的表現真的很好，我認為通過東北走廊，我們將在一年內產生重大影響。我今年的目標是，在 12 月份，我們可以在一個月內讓 100 萬人光顧我們的商店。這是一個瘋狂的數字。這就是我們追求的目標。

Well, the best of luck with that and thank you very much gentlemen for the color.

好吧，祝你好運，非常感謝先生們的顏色。

You're welcome. I think really Tesla is not a demand constrained Company. We are production constrained, so that must be our focus, but not at the expense of quality.

別客氣。我認為特斯拉真的不是一家需求受限的公司。我們的生產受到限制，所以這必須是我們的重點，但不能以犧牲質量為代價。

Patrick Archambault, Goldman Sachs.

帕特里克·阿爾尚博，高盛。

Hi, good evening and congratulations on the launch. I just had unfortunately a couple more questions on the ramp. I was wondering whether we could get just a little bit more color on sort of how that process is going to work? I take it, it sounds like from what you've said already so far that what's sort of holding things up in terms of, or one of the things that you are hitting to get to the next stage is really having to lock down decisions on certain components.

嗨，晚上好，祝賀發布。不幸的是，我在坡道上還有幾個問題。我想知道我們是否可以在該過程的工作方式上獲得更多色彩？我接受它，聽起來從你到目前為止已經說過的內容來看，是什麼阻礙了事情，或者你正在努力進入下一階段的事情之一是真的必須鎖定決策某些組件。

Not really decisions, it is ensuring both internal production quality and supplier quality. But we are not changing the product, for change sake certainly. If there is a change it is because we have to redesign improve manufacturing ability in a few cases here and there, but we are not -- the product, the physical product of course, from a software standpoint, we will continue to provide updates because Tesla is the only Company that does wireless updating of the cars' software and firmware. We are going to keep as customers will get their car and then they will find that new functionality and improvements have been uploaded overnight while the car was in their garage, so that will continue, but we are really on lockdown on any physical changes that aren't absolutely required.

不是真正的決定，而是確保內部生產質量和供應商質量。但我們不會改變產品，當然是為了改變。如果有變化，那是因為我們必須在某些情況下重新設計以提高製造能力，但我們不是——產品，當然是物理產品，從軟件的角度來看，我們將繼續提供更新，因為特斯拉是唯一一家對汽車軟件和固件進行無線更新的公司。我們將繼續保持，因為客戶將得到他們的汽車，然後他們會發現新功能和改進已經在一夜之間上傳，而汽車在他們的車庫裡，所以這將繼續，但我們真的對任何物理變化都處於鎖定狀態不是絕對需要的。

Got you. Okay. I understand that the software piece can be sort of continuous, but it sounds like that there is still some components that are being made with preproduction tooling by some of your suppliers. And I guess the process of getting those finalized and with the right fit and finish is what helps you accelerate. Maybe you can just give a little bit of color, is there kind of a percentage in terms of components of the car where there's still some improvement to be made and a benchmark on that, that you might be able to think about as a guidepost for when that acceleration will take place?

得到你。好的。我知道軟件部分可以是連續的，但聽起來仍然有一些組件是由你們的一些供應商使用預生產工具製造的。而且我猜想最終確定並具有正確的配合和完成的過程可以幫助您加速。也許您可以只提供一點顏色，就汽車的組件而言，是否有某種百分比還有待改進，並以此為基準，您可以將其視為路標什麼時候會發生加速？

Sure. There's several thousand unique products in the car. Probably 97% or 98% of them are fine. There's a couple percent that need to be addressed but you cannot ship a car that is 98% complete. So -- or where there's 2% of the element of the components are not of high-quality. So there's probably a couple dozen suppliers that, where we have some challenges and we've either got to fix the supplier, bring it internal or get a different supplier.

當然。車裡有幾千種獨特的產品。可能有 97% 或 98% 的人沒問題。有幾個百分比需要解決，但您不能運送完成 98% 的汽車。所以 - 或者有 2% 的組件元素不是高質量的。因此，可能有幾十個供應商，我們面臨一些挑戰，我們要么修復供應商，將其引入內部，要么獲得不同的供應商。

Okay.

好的。

These are not big things. That is very important.

這些都不是什麼大事。這是非常重要的。

Honestly, sometimes the most ridiculous silly things. It could be a piece of carpet or a bit of interior trim but that doesn't have a flush condition or there's a piece of bright molding on the dashboard which has, doesn't exactly follow -- where it has an intersection with another piece of bright molding, that intersection doesn't have the right press -- these little things that are extremely annoying. (laughter). But we just cannot be delivering cars where people with -- that don't have an outstanding fit and finish, of those couple dozen parts almost all of them are like interior sort of soft trim issues. It is not like there's something some important fundamental technology thing like, our a battery pack and powertrain is in great shape and chassis is in great shape and body and paint.

老實說，有時候最可笑的傻事。它可能是一塊地毯或一點內飾，但沒有齊平的情況，或者儀表板上有一塊明亮的成型件，它有，不完全遵循 - 它與另一件有交叉明亮的造型，那個十字路口沒有合適的壓力機——這些小東西非常煩人。 （笑聲）。但是我們不能提供那些沒有出色裝配和完成的人的汽車，在這幾十個零件中，幾乎所有這些零件都像內部的軟裝飾問題。這不像有一些重要的基礎技術，比如我們的電池組和動力系統的形狀很好，底盤的形狀、車身和油漆都很好。

We actually want to keep our finding and make sure that the gaps and fits are as close to perfection as physically will allow. But honestly, the vexing things are a bunch of seemingly trivial interior components. Perhaps that was just because we assumed that those things wouldn't be problematic and they were more problematic than we realized. We've since beefed-up our interior trim engineering group considerably and it's not going to be a problem in the future.

我們實際上希望保留我們的發現，並確保間隙和配合在物理允許的情況下盡可能接近完美。但老實說，令人煩惱的事情是一堆看似微不足道的內部組件。也許那隻是因為我們認為這些事情不會有問題，而且問題比我們意識到的要嚴重。從那以後，我們已經大大加強了我們的內飾工程團隊，這在未來不會成為問題。

Okay, that's hopeful color. In the shareholder letter you also said that you had received all the dies, maybe we can talk about that. Is everything pretty much approved now and are you essentially at the stage where you are stamping all the components in-house at the right specs or is there still some importing of components while you fine tune some of these remaining dies?

好吧，這是充滿希望的顏色。在股東信中你還說你收到了所有的模具，也許我們可以談談。現在一切都得到了批准嗎？您是否基本上處於按照正確規格在內部沖壓所有組件的階段，或者在您微調這些剩餘模具中的一些時仍然有一些組件的進口？

Yes. We are able to stamp everything in-house at this point. We are still tweaking some, as mentioned, the gaps and how well things shut. We really want that to be, we really want to set a new industry benchmark for the accuracy of body fit. We already asked anyone in this regard and actually, we're going to keep iterating on that to the limit of what is physically possible, so, but them most people won't even notice these changes, unless they have a very discerning eye. It is not a problem.

是的。此時，我們可以在內部標記所有內容。如前所述，我們仍在調整一些差距和關閉情況。我們真的希望這樣，我們真的想為身體貼合的準確性樹立一個新的行業標杆。我們已經在這方面詢問了任何人，實際上，我們將繼續迭代到物理可能的極限，所以，但大多數人甚至不會注意到這些變化，除非他們有非常敏銳的眼光。這不成問題。

Okay, terrific. That's all I had. Congratulations on getting out what is already a great car.

好的，棒極了。這就是我所擁有的。恭喜你推出了一輛已經很棒的汽車。

Thanks. It really maybe this is, it's one of my character, I tend to be pretty perfectionist about these things, and the goal is we want the car to be so accurate you can use it as a yardstick. You can use it as a calibration device, that's how accurate you want the car to be.

謝謝。真的可能是這樣，這是我的性格之一，我對這些事情往往非常完美主義，我們的目標是我們希望汽車如此精確，你可以用它作為衡量標準。您可以將其用作校准設備，這就是您希望汽車達到的精度。

Terrific, thank you very much.

太棒了，非常感謝。

The next question comes from Ben Kallo from Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Kallo。

Going back to the capital raise question. Bloomberg is already reporting that you guys might do a small capital raise, can you talk about price sensitivity since the stock is trading near where your last second was done and you've created significant value since then in the Company. And also around timing, a lot of the questions here are focused on the ramp so would you do a capital raise after that ramp was proved out?

回到融資問題。彭博社已經報導說你們可能會進行小規模的融資，你能談談價格敏感性嗎，因為股票的交易價格接近你最後一秒的交易價格，並且從那時起你在公司創造了可觀的價值。還有關於時機，這裡的很多問題都集中在斜坡上，所以在證明斜坡之後你會籌集資金嗎？

I think it is best we don't comment on any of these. I think as Elon said, we will just opportunistically pursue at the right time and I think that's probably the best way.

我認為我們最好不要對其中任何一個發表評論。我認為正如埃隆所說，我們只會在正確的時間機會主義地追求，我認為這可能是最好的方式。

But I'd like to exclude the very immediate future. We will not be raising money in the very immediate future.

但我想排除最近的將來。我們不會在不久的將來籌集資金。

Okay. Then you can give me any color on what that means?

好的。那麼你可以給我任何顏色，這意味著什麼？

No.

不。

(laughter). All right, I tried.

（笑聲）。好吧，我試過了。

I might get some color from the SEC if I gave you that.

如果我給你的話，我可能會從 SEC 那裡得到一些顏色。

Elon, and Deepak, on the, can you give us any update on the leasing program here in the United States?

Elon 和 Deepak，您能告訴我們有關美國租賃計劃的最新情況嗎？

I think as Elon a lucid, that's something we're looking into next year. We're continue to evaluate that and I think at this point our focus is on the key priorities of production.

我認為 Elon 是一個清醒的人，這是我們明年要考慮的事情。我們將繼續評估這一點，我認為目前我們的重點是生產的關鍵優先事項。

Yes, maybe just give my views on leasing long-term which is, I'm a huge proponent of leasing, particularly for electric vehicles. As is the case in solar, leasing has proven to be extremely effective as a way to encourage seller adoption. And it sort of seems like it shouldn't be that effective because if you told someone, hey this system is going to pay back in five years and they say five years, that seems like a long time. Do you know how long your savings account is going to take to pay you back? You will be dead. (laughter). So people seem to be unable to do the math on that it is like -- it's like wow -- it is, excluding compounding, a 20% return if it pays back in five years, and with certainty. (laughter). Where do you get something like that. Yet amazingly, had trouble getting people to act so then we are basically out trying to sell them to people that understand, basically, people who are sophisticated in finance and are looking for yields, and said, okay, let's go toward people who really understand yield and take that problem away from the consumer so they don't have to think about it and they could just look at it like their electricity cost went down.

是的，也許只是給出我對長期租賃的看法，也就是說，我是租賃的堅定支持者，尤其是電動汽車。與太陽能的情況一樣，租賃已被證明是一種非常有效的鼓勵賣方採用的方式。而且它似乎不應該那麼有效，因為如果你告訴某人，嘿，這個系統將在五年內償還，他們說五年，這似乎很長。您知道您的儲蓄賬戶需要多長時間才能還款嗎？你會死的。 （笑聲）。因此，人們似乎無法計算出它就像 - 就像哇 - 它是，不包括複利，如果它在五年內償還，並且肯定會獲得 20% 的回報。 （笑聲）。你從哪裡得到這樣的東西。然而令人驚訝的是，很難讓人們採取行動，所以我們基本上試圖把它們賣給那些了解的人，基本上，那些精通金融並正在尋找收益的人，然後說，好吧，讓我們去找那些真正了解的人產量並將這個問題從消費者身上帶走，這樣他們就不必考慮它，他們可以像他們的電費下降一樣看待它。

So why is that relevant to Tesla? Because the cost of operation of Model S is much less than the cost of operation of any other premium sedan by far. It is going to feel like you have a car for free. And in particularly in places like Europe, $9 or $10 of that gallon in Europe, you can spend a couple hundred dollars filling up your gas tank. Or you could spend some negligible amount recharging your car. It really amounts to a huge effective discount on the cost of operation of the car over other premium sedans. And the best way to make that apparent is through a lease. So we're going to be very big on leasing in the future. We just haven't needed to do that because if there's enough demand for the car, we just tell people, you just have to buy the whole thing, you cannot have leasing.

那麼為什麼這與特斯拉有關？因為到目前為止，Model S 的運營成本遠低於任何其他高檔轎車的運營成本。感覺就像您免費擁有一輛車。尤其是在歐洲這樣的地方，9 美元或 10 美元在歐洲，你可以花幾百美元來加滿你的油箱。或者你可以花一些微不足道的錢給你的車充電。與其他高檔轎車相比，這確實相當於汽車運營成本的巨大有效折扣。讓這一點顯而易見的最好方法是通過租約。所以我們將來會在租賃方面做大做強。我們只是不需要這樣做，因為如果對汽車有足夠的需求，我們只是告訴人們，你只需要買整件東西，你就不能租賃。

If we have sufficient demand to do that then we should turn our attention to the key thing which is production, and then next year we will get to leasing. And we do have data from the Roadster that I think that's helpful to leasing companies and by the way, the Roadster has got really good residual value. I think it is significantly better than a Porsche, actually. Maybe it depends on which Porsche. Certainly it is got much better residual valid than the Porsche I bought about five years ago. (laughter). The thing's worth like a peanut after. It is like holy crow.

如果我們有足夠的需求來做這件事，那麼我們應該把注意力轉向關鍵的事情，那就是生產，然後明年我們將開始租賃。我們確實有來自 Roadster 的數據，我認為這對租賃公司很有幫助，順便說一下，Roadster 的剩餘價值非常好。實際上，我認為它比保時捷要好得多。也許這取決於哪個保時捷。當然，它比我大約五年前買的保時捷要好得多。 （笑聲）。之後這東西值錢。它就像神聖的烏鴉。

Okay, my last one on deliveries, Deepak you mentioned there isn't much risk around timing around production and deliveries. Maybe if you could just expand upon that, and how people are ready to accept their cars and also is it safe for me to infer from your comments about the quality issues in getting to your target quality that you're not currently delivering, and then when do you expect to actually start delivering vehicles?

好的，我最後一次關於交付，Deepak 你提到圍繞生產和交付的時間安排沒有太大風險。也許如果您可以對此進行擴展，以及人們如何準備好接受他們的汽車，並且我可以從您的評論中推斷出在達到您當前未交付的目標質量方面的質量問題，然後您預計何時真正開始交付車輛？

My comment earlier was especially in the early part of our deliveries there's a bigger percentage of deliveries in California. Significantly reduces the gap between production and delivery. And as we go further out there is going to be a few days, but it is not dramatically different from the traditional OEM model, that was my point. Hopefully that's clear. And in terms of delivery, yes, we are making deliveries. We are also making a lot of cars for marketing and sales, even in Q3, so that we continue and show as many cars to our potential customers and folks who have made reservations that are locking in their cars. So it is not as if we're not making deliveries, we're just going slow on the ramp to sort out the issues before we go up the S-curve.

我之前的評論特別是在我們交付的早期階段，加利福尼亞的交付比例更高。大大縮小了生產和交貨之間的差距。隨著我們走得更遠，會有幾天的時間，但這與傳統的 OEM 模式並沒有太大的不同，這就是我的觀點。希望這很清楚。在交付方面，是的，我們正在交付。即使在第三季度，我們也製造了大量用於營銷和銷售的汽車，因此我們繼續向我們的潛在客戶和預訂鎖定汽車的人展示盡可能多的汽車。所以這並不是說我們沒有交付，我們只是在斜坡上放慢速度，在我們走上 S 曲線之前解決問題。

Great, thanks guys.

太好了，謝謝各位。

I just want to make a quick comment on timing here. We have about five minutes left for the scheduled call. We will add another five minutes on top of that so analysts if you could please keep your questions short and management, your answers brief.

我只想在這裡對時間做一個簡短的評論。我們還有大約五分鐘的時間來安排電話會議。我們將在此基礎上再增加 5 分鐘，以便分析師們盡可能簡短地提出您的問題，並儘量簡短地回答您的問題。

Sorry. (laughter).

對不起。 （笑聲）。

We will get to as many as we can. Thanks. Jamie, next question.

我們將盡可能多地到達。謝謝。傑米，下一個問題。

Sanjay Shrestha, Lazard Capital Markets.

Sanjay Shrestha，拉扎德資本市場。

The first question is on, can you talk about how are reservation sort of converting into the final order for you guys and obviously reservation numbers have been good, but what would you say is the final order number at this point in time, do you have 500, 5,000, how should we think about that?

第一個問題是，你能談談預訂是如何轉化為你們的最終訂單的嗎？顯然預訂數量一直很好，但你會說此時的最終訂單數量，你有嗎？ 500，5000，我們應該怎麼想？

How many have locked in their options? Is that what you mean?

有多少人鎖定了他們的選擇？你是這個意思嗎？

Exactly.

確切地。

12,200 reservations, net reservations. George is saying we've had about 1,000 people lock in but we only ask them to lock in --

12,200 個預訂，淨預訂。喬治說我們已經鎖定了大約 1000 人，但我們只要求他們鎖定——

A few months, but we haven't gone to all the folks, we've only gone to a small percentage of people.

幾個月，但我們還沒有接觸到所有的人，我們只接觸了一小部分人。

Right, yes.

對，是的。

We have invited the signature reservation holders in the US only to configure and then we went out about 10 days ago give or take to our first group of general production people sending out the emails saying, it is time to build your Model S and then this week will go out to the next bunch of general production US, and then we will proceed from there to Canada signature then Canada general production. It is not like just be clear here, we haven't gone out to 12,000 people and said configure your car. We're doing it in sequential order based upon when they made their reservation.

我們只邀請了美國的簽名預訂持有人進行配置，然後我們在大約 10 天前出去給我們的第一批普通生產人員發送或接收電子郵件，說是時候建造你的 Model S，然後這個下一周將出到美國的通用生產，然後我們將從那裡開始到加拿大簽名然後加拿大通用生產。在這裡不是很清楚，我們還沒有向 12,000 人說配置你的車。我們根據他們預訂的時間按順序進行。

Okay.

好的。

And as of today we will be about 1,000 fully configured cars that people have finalized their options and everything like that.

到今天為止，我們將擁有大約 1,000 輛完全配置的汽車，人們已經完成了他們的選擇以及類似的一切。

Basically more than covering what you plan to ship in Q3 kind of a thing, and then Q4, you think about that as we go --.

基本上不僅僅是涵蓋您計劃在第三季度發布的內容，然後是第四季度，您會在我們進行時考慮這一點——。

By far, yes.

到目前為止，是的。

By far.

到目前為止。

Okay, that's all I had, thanks, guys.

好的，這就是我所擁有的，謝謝，伙計們。

Andrea James, Dougherty & Company.

安德里亞詹姆斯，多爾蒂公司。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just quickly on the ramp. Obviously Elon when you chose to slow production in Q3, you had to make a decision to ramp even faster to make up for it in Q4, or preserve the previous step function, so what went into that decision and why not push some of the 5,000 for this year into next year and build in some more contingency time?

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。很快就上坡道了。顯然 Elon 當你選擇在第三季度放慢生產速度時，你必須決定在第四季度加快生產速度以彌補它，或者保留之前的階躍函數，那麼做出這個決定的原因是什麼，為什麼不推動 5,000從今年到明年，並建立更多的應急時間？

I know we made a hard commitment that we were going to do 5,000 units this year, there was effectively a soft implication that we would do for 5,000 units this year. The hard one was the 20,000 extra and the 25% gross margin and the start of deliveries in no later than July. Those are the three hard ones and the others stayed relatively soft, but I still want to aspire to meet something, even if it is a soft commitment, a softer commitment, and it is going to mean that we are going to have to work pretty hard over Thanksgiving and Christmas and New Years, and all that, but we want to try to do the right thing for our investors.

我知道我們做出了今年將生產 5,000 台的硬性承諾，實際上我們暗示今年將生產 5,000 台。困難的是額外的 20,000 和 25% 的毛利率以及不遲於 7 月開始交付。這三個是硬的，其他的相對軟，但我仍然想渴望遇到一些事情，即使這是一個軟承諾，一個更軟的承諾，這意味著我們將不得不努力工作感恩節、聖誕節和新年，以及所有這些，我們都在努力，但我們想努力為我們的投資者做正確的事情。

Okay, so it was because of the commitment and not -- okay. And then, I hate to go here, but there's commentary on the blogs and message boards, you have people with low reservation saying, I'm not told I'm going to get my car until October or Q1. I guess what do you make of that commentary, I imagine some people on your team are looking at it as well?

好的，這是因為承諾，而不是-- 好的。然後，我討厭去這裡，但是博客和留言板上有評論，你有一些保留率很低的人說，我不會告訴我要到 10 月或第一季度才能拿到我的車。我猜你對那個評論有什麼看法，我想你團隊中的一些人也在看它？

Sometimes things can go a little awry on the message boards. I wouldn't read too much into the message boards but I think some of those people can get the wrong information and they can panic or. George, do you want to?

有時，留言板上的事情可能會有點不對勁。我不會過多閱讀留言板，但我認為其中一些人可能會得到錯誤的信息，他們可能會感到恐慌或恐慌。喬治，你願意嗎？

Yes, I monitor them, I watch them on a regular -- I watch them on a daily basis and I squelched one the other day where somebody came out and specifically said I have it on good authority that there are 200 founders series cars and everybody's going to be pushed back. And it is a blatant factual inaccuracy, and so I went and I shut it down. Those kind of things happen all the time. I try to stay -- I try to not contribute to the message boards much at all but sometimes things just run awry. Some people -- early on we had gone out with a more firm date, whenever people would configuring their cars early on in early April and May and they were configuring, in April and May they were configuring their cars. And our system kicked out a date. It was a projection and then we sort of left it there is a placeholder. Some of those people have thought that was a firm date and it never really was, so we are correcting that. But I watch the boards all the time. You cannot go by what's on the boards but you cannot go by what's on the boards.

是的，我監視他們，我定期觀察他們——我每天都看他們，前幾天我壓制了一個人出來，特別說我有充分的權威，有 200 輛創始人系列汽車，每個人的會被推回去。這是一個公然的事實不准確，所以我去了，我把它關閉了。這類事情一直在發生。我試著留下來——我盡量不為留言板做出太多貢獻，但有時事情會出錯。有些人 - 早些時候，我們有一個更確定的日期，每當人們在 4 月初和 5 月初配置他們的汽車並且他們正在配置時，他們在 4 月和 5 月他們正在配置他們的汽車。我們的系統踢出了一個約會。這是一個投影，然後我們把它留了一個佔位符。其中一些人認為這是一個確定的日期，但事實並非如此，所以我們正在糾正這一點。但我一直在看棋盤。您不能按照板上的內容行事，但您不能按照板上的內容行事。

Yes, exactly.

對，就是這樣。

I don't know how else to describe it.

我不知道還能怎麼形容它。

I think I'd just judge things by what serial number of cars are being delivered and that will give some sense of where -- how we are tracking to actual deliveries. You will see that number rise quite dramatically and I think we will see some of this activity on the boards just die down, because in the absence of information you can get rampant speculation that's just not based on anything, and while I, (laughter). I have to be careful not to say anything about [short salaries]. (laughter) I think one of the most short sold stocks on the stock market and there's certainly people with means, motive, and opportunity to say things that are negative and untrue. Not saying that they are, but there's means, motive and opportunity to do so.

我想我只是根據交付的汽車序列號來判斷事情，這將給出一些地方的感覺——我們如何跟踪實際交付。你會看到這個數字急劇上升，我認為我們會看到董事會上的一些活動逐漸平息，因為在沒有信息的情況下，你會得到猖獗的猜測，這些猜測只是沒有任何依據，而我，（笑聲） .我必須小心不要說任何關於[短薪]的事情。 （笑聲）我認為是股票市場上賣空最多的股票之一，肯定有人有手段、動機和機會說出負面和不真實的話。不是說他們是，但有這樣做的手段、動機和機會。

I think that's helpful, thank you. One final, what leads you to say you'll have 20,000 reservations by the end of this year? George, you have talked about it a little bit but I was wondering what gets you there?

我認為這很有幫助，謝謝。一個決賽，是什麼讓你說到今年年底你將有 20,000 個預訂？喬治，你已經談了一點，但我想知道是什麼讓你到達那裡？

I think we have not said that will have 20,000 reservations by the end of the year. We might have that but I wouldn't say it is, it's not out of the question of but it is inclusive of deliveries, I think it is very likely -- it is likely, perhaps take the very away, inclusive of deliveries I think it is likely that we would have a cumulative essentially 20,000 sales, I think there's a pretty good chance of that.

我想我們還沒有說到今年年底會有 20,000 個預訂。我們可能有，但我不會說，這不是不可能的，但它包含交付，我認為它很可能 - 它很可能，也許會帶走我認為的交付我們很可能會累積基本上 20,000 次銷售，我認為這很有可能。

What does 2013 sold out mean?

2013年售罄是什麼意思？

I actually think that 2013 is a likely to be production constrained again. I do think it is going to be demand constrained.

我實際上認為 2013 年很可能會再次受到生產限制。我確實認為這將受到需求限制。

So your saying that over the course of 2013 you'll have more reservations or more demand than you can produce cars, that's what you mean when you say it will be sold out?

所以你說在 2013 年你的預訂量或需求量將超過你生產汽車的能力，這就是你說它會售罄的意思？

I think, yes but I think that we will -- I think that we will sell more cars than we can -- there will be more orders for cars than we were reasonably able to produce at high-quality next year.

我認為，是的，但我認為我們將 - 我認為我們將銷售更多的汽車 - 明年的汽車訂單將超過我們能夠合理生產的高質量汽車。

We will not have inventory.

我們不會有庫存。

We will not have inventory.

我們不會有庫存。

So are not saying though that you'll get to the end of 2012 and you'll be sold out on 2013? You're just saying over the course of 2013 you expect to be sold out, is that kind of what you meant by that?

所以不是說你會到 2012 年底並且你會在 2013 年被搶購一空嗎？你只是說在 2013 年你預計會售罄，你的意思是這樣嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think the way to look at this is that we never plan to have inventory. And what will happen is demand, we have a plan in place with stores and marketing, et cetera to get up to a demand rate by month that will always stay ahead of production, and we can adjust production depending upon where demand goes. And what will happen is we don't expect to have 20,000 reservations on an ongoing basis because that's way too far out. We will have -- our goal is to have three to four months of active reservations at any given point in time ahead of production. Whatever the production rate is.

我認為看待這個問題的方式是我們從不打算擁有庫存。將會發生的是需求，我們制定了商店和營銷等計劃，以按月達到始終領先於生產的需求率，我們可以根據需求的變化調整生產。將會發生的事情是，我們預計不會持續有 20,000 個預訂，因為這太遙遠了。我們將擁有——我們的目標是在生產前的任何給定時間點進行三到四個月的積極預訂。無論生產率如何。

Exactly.

確切地。

So the idea is to get a run rate of reservations that's three to four months ahead of whatever's production rate is so that we never have the expense of inventory, we never have any of those things, we just have run rate of three to four months of ongoing reservations.

所以我們的想法是獲得比生產速度提前三到四個月的預訂運行率，這樣我們就永遠不會有庫存費用，我們永遠不會有這些東西，我們只有三到四個月的運行率正在進行的預訂。

That's fundamental to our retail model.

這是我們零售模式的基礎。

Right.

正確的。

That model continues and we always expect to be ahead, and in fact, we don't want it to be too long because that's a detractor for more reservations.

這種模式仍在繼續，我們總是希望領先，事實上，我們不希望它太長，因為這會損害更多預訂。

Right. As we get closer to being able to deliver cars faster our reservation demand will be stronger because people will -- it will be more predictable and people will be able to say I have a lease that's coming up in three or four months, now is the time to reserve. What will happen is it refunds and other things, refunds at that point go almost to nothing because someone will reserve a car and literally go right into the configuration process within the next 30 days. They'll configure their car and then we'll deliver it in another couple of months and so that's the business model and that's why it works so perfectly.

正確的。隨著我們越來越接近能夠更快地交付汽車，我們的預訂需求將會更加強勁，因為人們會 - 這將更加可預測，人們將能夠說我的租約將在三四個月後到來，現在是預留時間。將會發生的是退款和其他事情，那時的退款幾乎沒有，因為有人會預訂一輛車，並在接下來的 30 天內直接進入配置過程。他們將配置他們的汽車，然後我們將在另外幾個月內交付它，這就是商業模式，這就是它運作如此完美的原因。

Thank you. I appreciate that.

謝謝你。我很感激。

Michael Lew, Needham.

邁克爾·盧，李約瑟。

Thanks and good afternoon. With regard to the ongoing nationwide tour, how much incremental demand has that generated?

謝謝，下午好。對於正在進行的全國巡演，產生了多少增量需求？

The tour is going really well and what's happened is I think our July, our end of June and July demand has been -- has increased from a couple of reasons. One is the news we are delivering cars, one is because of the incredible reviews that we've gotten on the cars, and I think the third is that we are putting a lot of people behind the wheel for the first time. They are getting out of the car and saying incredible things, they're then going home and telling their friends and coming back and getting their friends involved. So we are seeing incremental demand because of the tour, but I want to keep a focus on the fact that the tour is really designed for our reservation holders that currently have reservations. We haven't actually gone out and started having lots of test drives slots available for new customers. So again, that's another opportunity for us in another two -- in another month or so when we actually take the test drive cars we have and the ones we are building now and we go out and we say, okay, now we've gone out, we've done 5,000, 6,000 test drives of reservation holders. And then we start actually giving people who don't have reservations test drives for the first time and that's part of the kick that we will get on the reservations.

巡演進行得非常順利，我認為我們的 7 月、6 月底和 7 月的需求已經 - 增加了有幾個原因。一個是我們正在交付汽車的消息，一個是因為我們在汽車上獲得了令人難以置信的評論，我認為第三個是我們第一次讓很多人開車。他們下車說些不可思議的話，然後回家告訴他們的朋友，然後回來讓他們的朋友參與進來。因此，由於這次旅行，我們看到了需求的增加，但我想繼續關注這樣一個事實，即這次旅行確實是為我們目前有預訂的預訂者設計的。實際上，我們還沒有開始為新客戶提供大量試駕插槽。所以再一次，這對我們來說是另外兩個機會——再過一個月左右，當我們實際試駕我們擁有的汽車和我們現在正在建造的汽車時，我們出去說，好吧，現在我們已經走了我們已經完成了 5,000、6,000 次預訂持有者的試駕。然後我們開始實際上第一次為沒有預訂的人提供試駕，這是我們將獲得預訂的一部分。

Yes. This is an important point that George just made. The test drives, all these test drives, almost all of them are just for existing customers. We actually -- essentially we could generate more sales if we wanted to. We could grow the rate faster, but there's not much point in growing the rate faster if it's 9 or 10 months before you get the car. There's just not much point really in trying to add additional orders.

是的。這是喬治剛剛提出的一個重要觀點。試駕，所有這些試駕，幾乎所有這些都是為了現有客戶。實際上，如果我們願意，我們實際上可以產生更多的銷售額。我們可以更快地提高速度，但如果在您獲得汽車之前的 9 或 10 個月，提高速度並沒有多大意義。嘗試添加額外的訂單並沒有多大意義。

We have an incredibly loyal base. We have an incredibly loyal customer base and if you look at the people who have already received their cars and you look at the videos they are putting together and posting and the people they are talking to, we are getting incremental reservations already from the cars we have out there from the people who are driving them and going to dinner and going to show or whatever with other people who are then calling us and saying I need to have one like Steve. I want a car like Steve, I want a car like Nancy. So we are getting incremental from having the cars we have out there already, when that starts escalating and we start doing new test drives with people who don't have reservations --

我們有一個非常忠誠的基礎。我們有一個非常忠誠的客戶群，如果你看看已經收到他們的汽車的人，你看看他們正在整理和發布的視頻以及他們正在交談的人，我們已經從我們的汽車中獲得了增量預訂從那些開車去吃飯、去表演或其他人那裡的人那裡得到了，然後他們打電話給我們，說我需要一個像史蒂夫這樣的人。我想要一輛像史蒂夫這樣的車，我想要一輛像南希這樣的車。因此，我們正在從已經擁有的汽車中獲得增量，當這種情況開始升級時，我們開始與沒有預訂的人進行新的試駕——

Essentially, we are seeing demand acceleration without trying. If we tried it would be -- if we really tried hard it would be more than this.

從本質上講，我們無需嘗試就能看到需求加速。如果我們嘗試過，會是——如果我們真的很努力，會不止這些。

I think to point out and we don't -- you don't have the visibility into where all of our cars are. Here's something to think about on the demand side is we have the Get Amped test drive Tour which has the marketing cars out there that are doing test drives. We don't have a Model S at all in Europe or Asia. We don't have a component tour, we don't have anything at all in either one of those major markets and we are sold out in signature in EU and so we are not doing anything outside of North America and yet we've got the backlog we have now. As we go in to the end of Q3 and into Q4 we are going to start transitioning those markets to Model S and at that point trying in Europe and Asia for the first time. (multiple speakers).

我想指出，我們沒有——你無法看到我們所有汽車的位置。在需求方面需要考慮的一點是，我們有 Get Amped 試駕之旅，其中有正在試駕的營銷汽車。我們在歐洲或亞洲根本沒有 Model S。我們沒有組件巡迴演出，我們在其中任何一個主要市場都沒有任何東西，我們在歐盟的簽名售罄，所以我們在北美以外沒有做任何事情，但我們有我們現在的積壓工作。隨著我們進入第三季度末和第四季度，我們將開始將這些市場過渡到 Model S，並在那時首次嘗試在歐洲和亞洲。 （多個揚聲器）。

I think a reasonable definition of trying would mean you've got at least one car in the market. Obviously we're not, it's surprising the articles out there questioning whether there's demand for the Model S. Maybe -- there may be demand issues with other electric vehicles, there's certainly not a demand issue with the Model S.

我認為嘗試的合理定義意味著您在市場上至少擁有一輛車。顯然我們不是，令人驚訝的是那裡的文章質疑 Model S 是否有需求。也許——其他電動汽車可能存在需求問題，Model S 肯定沒有需求問題。

Okay. And so as I understand correctly, there will be a slight pause and then possibly another tour, let's say, going into the Northeast market since you mentioned that and possibly even the Midwest?

好的。所以我理解正確，會有一個短暫的停頓，然後可能是另一次巡演，比如說，進入東北市場，因為你提到了這一點，甚至可能是中西部？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

The Get Amped Tour?

Get Amped 之旅？

Just in terms of markets that have not been tapped.

僅就尚未開發的市場而言。

We barely touched the greater New York area.

我們幾乎沒有觸及大紐約地區。

Yes. We are opening more stores this year, this fall in fact, one of our next stores will be in the New York Metropolitan area, and then we will come back with another two and then we will go further north from there into the Massachusetts area and down into the DC area. We think that market holds lots and lots and lots of potential because we already have the number reservations we have there without a lot of presence. When we have presence, I think my retail history tells me that there is lots and lots of untapped potential there that we are going to begin tapping starting in September.

是的。今年我們會開更多的店，事實上，今年秋天，我們下一家店將在紐約大都會區，然後我們會再開另外兩家，然後我們會從那裡再往北走，進入馬薩諸塞州地區下到 DC 區域。我們認為這個市場有很多很多很多的潛力，因為我們已經有了我們在那裡的預訂數量，但沒有太多的存在。當我們有存在時，我認為我的零售歷史告訴我，那裡有很多尚未開發的潛力，我們將從 9 月開始挖掘。

A think a lot of people on the call are probably from the greater New York area, maybe just listening, the stores that we've opened in the greater New York area and the ones that are -- will be opening in the next few months.

很多人在電話會議上可能來自大紐約地區，也許只是在聽，我們在大紐約地區開設的商店以及即將在未來幾個月開業的商店.

Sure. For those of you in the New York area, you're probably aware we have the store on 25th Street that's been there for a while, and then we opened up in the Westchester, up in Westchester County and it is doing very, very well, very, very nicely. And we see where all the reservations are coming from through each a store and it is actually increased the reservation flow in the West 25th Street store, so having two stores in the market has helped. For those of you in North Jersey, we will be opening up in Garden State Plaza, at Short Hills Mall. Then for you in Long Island we will be looking to open up in Roosevelt Field. Going from one store on West 25th Street to having two in northern Jersey, one in Westchester County and one in Long Island, it is a pretty good capture of the New York metropolitan area with those particular centers surrounding the city.

當然。對於紐約地區的你們來說，你們可能知道我們在第 25 街開設的商店已經存在了一段時間，然後我們在威徹斯特、威徹斯特縣開設了這家店，而且做得非常非常好，非常非常好。我們通過每家商店看到所有預訂來自哪裡，這實際上增加了西 25 街商店的預訂流量，因此在市場上有兩家商店有幫助。對於那些在新澤西州北部的人，我們將在 Short Hills Mall 的 Garden State Plaza 開業。那麼對於長島的您，我們將尋求在羅斯福球場開放。從西 25 街的一家商店到澤西北部的兩家、威徹斯特縣的一家和長島的一家，這是對紐約大都市區和城市周圍特定中心的一個很好的捕捉。

Our store in Chelsea, we've got that lease because it was the only lease we could afford back in the day and it is all basically a version -- maybe it's version 1.5 of store technology. If you want to see the latest in store technology and I'm not using the word, there really is sort of store technology, you want to go to Westchester or one of the stores that's opening up in New Jersey or Long Island. They'll share the latest and greatest in the retail experience. But just to give you some sense, we basically had, I count the store in Chelsea as like a half store. We had a half store until a few months ago in the entire greater New York, a half store.

我們在切爾西的商店，我們得到了租約，因為這是我們當時唯一能負擔得起的租約，而且基本上都是一個版本——也許是商店技術的 1.5 版。如果你想看到最新的商店技術，我沒有使用這個詞，真的有某種商店技術，你想去威徹斯特或在新澤西或長島開業的商店之一。他們將分享最新最好的零售體驗。但只是為了給你一些感覺，我們基本上有，我把切爾西的商店算作半個商店。直到幾個月前，我們在整個大紐約還有一家半店。

What's happened, like I said, what's happened, is when we opened up the Westchester, got that awareness, and a little bit of publicity and media, we now have two full stores, because it took the half store and made into a full store with reservations. Not from a technology standpoint but from a productivity standpoint.

發生了什麼事，就像我說的，發生了什麼事，當我們打開威徹斯特，獲得了這種意識，再加上一點宣傳和媒體，我們現在有兩家完整的商店，因為它把一半的商店變成了一家完整的商店有保留。不是從技術的角度來看，而是從生產力的角度來看。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I think we will take one more question, Jamie, please.

我想我們再問一個問題，傑米，拜託。

Jesse Patel, Jefferies.

傑西帕特爾，傑富瑞。

Thank you for taking my call, I apologize for missing the earlier queue. Deepak, for modeling purposes, what is the targeted cash cycle days conversion we should be thinking about at full ramp? Can we assume sub-20?

感謝您接聽我的電話，很抱歉錯過了較早的隊列。 Deepak，出於建模目的，我們應該考慮全面提升的目標現金周期天數轉換是多少？我們可以假設低於 20 嗎？

Sorry, I'm not sure what your question is, Jesse, exactly. Are you referring to our inventory turns or were working capital needs, I'm not exactly sure.

抱歉，傑西，我不確定你的問題是什麼。你指的是我們的庫存周轉還是營運資金需求，我不太確定。

If we take days inventory, days receivable and days payable and basically add them up, how quickly can you turn into cash?

如果我們把存貨天數、應收天數和應付天數計算起來，基本上把它們加起來，你能多快變成現金？

I think the way we look at it is that fundamentally we have zero receivables, we deliver the car within a few days of production and we get full payment. But our supplier payment terms are on average about 45 days so we tend to deliver and receive money before we have to pay to our suppliers so I think from your point of view more focus is working capital usage and our working capital actually doesn't, our need for working capital doesn't increase as we ramp up production. It helps us in fact from a cash flow perspective.

我認為我們看待它的方式是，基本上我們的應收賬款為零，我們在生產後的幾天內交付汽車並獲得全額付款。但是我們的供應商付款期限平均約為 45 天，因此我們傾向於在必須向供應商付款之前交付和收款，所以我認為從您的角度來看，更關注的是營運資金的使用，而我們的營運資金實際上並沒有，隨著產量的增加，我們對營運資金的需求並沒有增加。實際上，從現金流的角度來看，它對我們有所幫助。

Asked the question, which is a good one because the capital needs of the business, if the business needs to raise equity or something to build working capital as it grows, the effective return on investment for investor is much lower than if it is the other way around. In our case it is the other way around. The faster we grow the business, the more cash we have available.

問這個問題，這是一個很好的問題，因為企業的資金需求，如果企業需要籌集股權或其他東西來建立營運資金，因為它的增長，投資者的有效投資回報率遠低於另一個繞路。在我們的例子中，情況正好相反。我們發展業務的速度越快，我們擁有的現金就越多。

That's what I thought and why I question the Bloomberg article. Are you picking out X reservations in the quarter?

這就是我的想法，也是我質疑彭博文章的原因。您是否在本季度挑選 X 預訂？

No. We are putting zero attention on X reservations. That's not really a metric we want to call people's attention to. That's something that we will turn our attention to next year.

不，我們對 X 預訂的關注度為零。這並不是我們真正想要引起人們注意的指標。這是我們明年將注意力轉向的事情。

Do you think some of the reservations for S and X are US delivery from European or Asian clients?

您認為 S 和 X 的一些預訂是來自歐洲或亞洲客戶的美國交付嗎？

Definitely we have reservations. (multiple speakers) As George mentioned, our Model S reservations includes European Signature Series, where we are sold out. We have reservations from all over the world for both S and X.

我們當然有保留。 （多位發言者）正如 George 提到的，我們的 Model S 預訂包括歐洲簽名系列，我們已售罄。我們對 S 和 X 都有來自世界各地的預訂。

There's also some people who just cannot wait and they order a US car and they're just going to ship it to Europe.

還有一些人等不及了，他們訂購了一輛美國汽車，然後就打算把它運到歐洲。

That's why I was kind of wondering if the launch in Europe and Asia is really going to increase the reservations that much or if they're already reserving today.

這就是為什麼我有點想知道在歐洲和亞洲推出是否真的會增加預訂量，或者他們今天是否已經預訂了。

It will increase it massively.

它會大量增加。

Your question is appropriate in that, do I think there are 5 people, 10 people who have bought US cars that are going to take them to Europe? Yes, but we have hundreds of reservations in EU and we are getting more and more every month and so that is not going to impact -- that's going to impact not all. That will be no impact.

你的問題是適當的，我認為有 5 個人，10 個人購買了美國汽車，將把他們帶到歐洲嗎？是的，但我們在歐盟有數百個預訂，我們每個月都在收到越來越多的預訂，所以這不會影響——不會影響所有人。那不會有影響。

Yes.

是的。

(multiple speakers). I guess it's not quite as exotic as picking up your Mercedes from Stuttgart, but I guess you can give them a burger and send them on the way. You made an interesting comment Elon about battery pack replacements, allowing a car, the car to have better range versus today and you said this before, when can we expect the next battery chemistry improvements and what's your road map for that?

（多個揚聲器）。我想這並不像從斯圖加特取你的梅賽德斯那樣充滿異國情調，但我想你可以給他們一個漢堡，然後在路上送他們。您對 Elon 發表了關於更換電池組的有趣評論，允許汽車，與今天相比，汽車具有更好的續航里程，您之前說過，我們什麼時候可以期待下一次電池化學改進，您的路線圖是什麼？

I think it is probably with the Gen 3 that we see -- a change in the fundamental chemistry as we did with Roadster where Roadster went from a went from a cobalt cathode to a nickel cobalt aluminum cathode, and effectively a 50% increase in -- roughly 50% increase in both gravimetric and volumetric engine density. Also a drop in cost because of the much lower cobalt content. I cannot comment on the specifics of some of the technologies that I'm aware because of confidentiality agreements. But I can say I am highly optimistic about seeing substantial reductions in cost per kilowatt hour in the three to four year time frame.

我認為這可能是我們看到的第 3 代——基礎化學發生了變化，就像我們對 Roadster 所做的那樣，Roadster 從鈷陰極變為鎳鈷鋁陰極，實際上增加了 50%—— - 重量和體積發動機密度大約增加 50%。由於鈷含量低得多，成本也有所下降。由於保密協議，我無法評論我所知道的某些技術的細節。但我可以說我非常樂觀地看到在三到四年的時間框架內每千瓦時的成本大幅降低。

Thank you gentlemen. Congratulations on the ramp.

謝謝各位先生。祝賀坡道。

Thanks, Jesse.

謝謝，傑西。

Thanks everyone, I apologize we didn't get to everybody today but this is going to conclude our call. We look forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks, either at test drive events and we'll also be at several conferences including in New York on August 7 for Needham's Advanced Industrial Technologies Conference, or on April 13 in Vail at Pacific Crest Global Technology Leadership Forum. Or, on the 14th, in New York again, at the JPMorgan Auto Conference. Thank you, everyone. Goodbye.

謝謝大家，我很抱歉我們今天沒有聯繫到每個人，但這將結束我們的電話會議。我們期待在接下來的幾週內見到你們中的許多人，無論是在試駕活動中，我們還將參加一些會議，包括 8 月 7 日在紐約舉行的 Needham 先進工業技術會議，或 4 月 13 日在太平洋峰頂的韋爾全球技術領導力論壇。或者，14 日，再次在紐約，摩根大通汽車大會上。謝謝大家。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference for today. Again, thank you for your participation. You may all disconnect. Have a good day.

女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。再次感謝您的參與。你們都可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。