特斯拉 (TSLA) 2012 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Tesla Motors first-quarter 2012 financial results. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time.

女士們、先生們，大家好！歡迎參加特斯拉汽車2012年第一季財報發表會。目前所有與會者都處於聆聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時將提供具體說明。

( Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Jeff Evanson. Please go ahead.

提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。現在，我想介紹今天會議的主持人傑夫·埃文森先生。請開始。

Thank you, Patrick and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Tesla Motors first-quarter 2012 financial results question-and- answer conference call. I am joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman, CEO and Chief Product Architect, as well as Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer. We announced our financial results for the first-quarter, shortly after 1 PM Pacific Time, today. The shareholder letter, financial results and webcast of this Q&A session are all available at the company's investor relations website at ir.teslamotors.com.

謝謝帕特里克，大家下午好。歡迎參加特斯拉汽車公司2012年第一季財務業績問答電話會議。今天，特斯拉董事長、執行長兼首席產品架構師馬斯克，以及特斯拉財務長迪帕克·阿胡加也出席了此次電話會議。我們在今天太平洋時間下午1點後不久公佈了第一季的財務業績。股東信、財務績效以及本問答會議的網路直播均可在公司投資者關係網站ir.teslamotors.com上取得。

Today's call will consist of questions and answers and we will conduct the Q&A session live. So if you have not already done so, please press star one now if you wish to ask a question. During the course of this call, we may discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are only predictions based on management's current expectations.

今天的電話會議將以問答形式進行，我們將進行現場問答。如果您還沒有點擊星號“1”，請立即提問。在本次電話會議中，我們可能會討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。此類陳述僅基於管理層目前的預期。

Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent form 10-K filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views only as of today, and should not be relied upon after today. We also disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. And now, let me pass the call to Elon.

由於許多風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的10-K表格中提及的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。此類前瞻性陳述僅代表我們截至今日的觀點，今日之後不應作為依據。我們亦不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的任何義務。現在，請允許我將電話轉給埃隆。

Alright, I think we can go right into questions. So, let's go ahead and start addressing the questions.

好的，我想我們可以直接進入提問環節了。那麼，我們就開始解答這些問題吧。

Thank you. If you a question at this time, please press star one on your touch-tone telephone.

謝謝。如果您現在還有問題，請按按鍵式電話上的星號 1。

( Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Our first question comes from Amir Rozwadowski from Barclays Capital. Your line is open.

我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊資本的阿米爾‧羅茲瓦多夫斯基 (Amir Rozwadowski)。您的電話已接通。

Thank you very much and good afternoon, Elon, Deepak and Jeff. I was wondering if we could talk a bit about the ramping of your facility at the moment. It seems as though, based on your release, you do expect to now deliver the vehicles in the June time frame. I was wondering if you could provide us an update in terms of getting the factory up and running to the run rate at which you expect to be delivering vehicles and where you stand today.

非常感謝，下午好，Elon、Deepak 和 Jeff。我想我們能否談談你們工廠目前的產能提升情況。根據你們的新聞稿，你們似乎確實預計在 6 月交付車輛。請問能否提供一下工廠的恢復情況，以及目前工廠的進度，看看你們目前如何達到預期的交貨速度。

Well, the initial ramp up course would be, sort of slow and then will spool up rapidly. We are keeping exact ramp sort of confidential and in part because we want to, as we increase production, we want to stabilize it at various plateaus, evaluate the quality, if it looks good, then ramp up. Our goal is to be at a run rate, an annualized run rate of greater than 20,000 units at the end of the year. But it's just a little difficult to predict that ramp, exactly, in advance. It's going to depend on how rapidly we can make cars at exceptional quality.

嗯，最初的產能提升過程會比較緩慢，之後會快速加速。我們對具體的產能提升過程保密，部分原因是我們希望在提高產量的同時，將其穩定在不同的平台期，評估質量，如果看起來不錯，再進行產能提升。我們的目標是在年底達到年化產能超過2萬輛的運行率。但要事先準確預測這個產能提升過程有點困難。這取決於我們能夠以多快的速度生產出品質卓越的汽車。

Are there any major pieces that need to be shipped in or installed, Elon? Is there any color you can give us as to where you stand today versus perhaps your last earnings call?

埃隆，有什麼重要部件需要運送或安裝嗎？能透露一下，目前公司的狀況與上次財報電話會議相比如何嗎？

Yes. We have all the factory machinery in place. We have the vast majority of the tooling in place. There are a few stamping dies that are stragglers, due to late changes. And those are coming in next month. But really, the machinery is in place and it's just a question of ironing out any bugs with the overall manufacturing system.

是的。我們所有的工廠機器都到位了。絕大多數模具都到位了。由於後期修改，一些沖壓模具暫時落後了。這些模具下個月就會到位。但實際上，機器已經到位，剩下的只是解決整個製造系統可能存在的問題。

The factory is like a big machine with many subcomponents essentially. So, it's getting that machine to work effectively at the subsystem level and then in the transition from one subsystem to the next and then being able to spool it up and go at it at a greater and greater speed. We really want to be supersensitive to the quality of the product. Our aspiration is to deliver cars that have zero defects. So, it will take some time to be able to have the whole system moved with equal cadence to achieve that goal.

工廠本質上就像一台巨大的機器，由眾多子部件組成。因此，關鍵在於讓這台機器在子系統層面高效運轉，並在子系統之間轉換，最終使其加速運轉，以越來越快的速度運作。我們真的希望對產品品質保持高度敏感。我們的願景是交付零缺陷的汽車。因此，要讓整個系統以相同的節奏運作以實現這一目標，還需要一些時間。

But, you do feel comfortable that you can hit the 20,000 or greater by the end of the year?

但是，您是否有信心在年底前達到 20,000 或更多的目標？

I am highly confident of that, yes.

是的，我對此非常有信心。

Great Thank you very much for increments of color.

太好了，非常感謝您增加的色彩。

Our next question comes from Chris Kovacs from Robert Baird. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自羅伯特貝爾德公司的克里斯科瓦奇 (Chris Kovacs)。您的電話已接通。

Thanks for taking my question. Can you give us a sense of, it's going to be another record quarter with reservations. You have over 10,000 now. Can you tell us what percentage of those you started to lock in, take specs for cars? And then can you maybe comment on how the new stores have affected your reservation momentum and how you expect the momentum to increase or change, if you allow customers to test drive cars in the summer?

感謝您回答我的問題。您能否介紹一下，本季的預訂量將再創紀錄。目前預訂量已超過1萬輛。能否透露一下，在最初鎖定的預訂量中，有多少比例是針對車型的？然後，您能否談談新門市對預訂動能有何影響？如果夏季允許顧客試駕，您預計預訂動能將如何成長或變化？

Sure. We have begun to lock in the cars that are -- as we queue the parts for production. So, we've got the first 100 cars locked in. We are really not seeing any significant follow-up from, at least in the beginning, from people -- as far as people said -- Oh, I put down a deposit but I'm not sure I want the car. It's really been a high rate of people wanting to put down the remainder of the money and complete the register of the vehicle.

當然。我們已經開始鎖定車輛——我們正在排隊等待零件投入生產。所以，我們已經鎖定了首批100輛車。至少在一開始，我們並沒有看到任何明顯的後續行動——就人們所說的——哦，我付了定金，但我不確定是否想要這輛車。實際上，有很多人希望支付剩餘款項並完成車輛登記。

Regarding the new stores and how that's going, George, would you? George Blankenship, here. George would probably be the best person to provide some color and detail regarding the stores.

關於新店以及進展如何，喬治，您好嗎？我是喬治·布蘭肯希普。喬治可能是最能提供一些關於新店細節的人。

We had very, very good traffic in Q1, as the shareholder letter said. We had over 410,000 people go through the six new design stores that we have. We are now getting ready to start opening our new stores for this year. We plan to open about 10 more new stores of the new design stores in traffic locations similar to those that the six exist in.

正如股東信中所說，我們第一季的客流量非常非常好。超過41萬人次光顧了我們現有的六家新設計店。我們正準備在今年開始新店的開幕。我們計劃在與現有六家店類似的人流量地段再開設約10家新設計店。

The traffic has been very positive and has a positive effect on the reservation flow. Both from Model X -- Model S and Model X. It has been very, very positive, and we are looking to open at least 10 stores this year of the new design.

客流量非常可觀，對預訂量產生了正面的影響。無論是 Model X、Model S 還是 Model X，預訂量都非常可觀。我們計劃今年至少開設 10 家採用新設計的門市。

I should tell you, with a particular focus in the greater New York area. Where we think there is a substantial untapped market.

我應該告訴你，我們特別關注大紐約地區。我們認為那裡有一個巨大的未開發市場。

You combine that with the additional marketing colors that will be there in the stores and the customer rides and drives, definitely there will be a significantly higher level of a marketing effort and presence that the customers will see starting this quarter.

將其與商店和客戶試乘試駕中呈現的額外行銷色彩相結合，從本季度開始，客戶肯定會看到更高水準的行銷力度和影響力。

It's worth noting that-- I mean it's the sign-ups that we've-- the 10,000 people who have put down a reservation payment, they have not test-driven the cars. So, we're achieving those numbers with no advertising, with no test drives, and in many cases, with stores that only have cars part of the time. By the end of this month, I think that we will have more or less, cars in all the stores. But to date, we've-- since these cars have been reserved for testing, much of the time there has been no Model S in the store.

值得注意的是，我的意思是，我們已經有1萬名預訂用戶支付了預訂費，但他們還沒有試駕過車輛。所以，我們在沒有廣告、沒有試駕，甚至很多情況下，門市只有部分時間有車輛的情況下，達成了這些目標。到本月底，我認為我們所有門市都會或多或少有車輛。但到目前為止，由於這些車輛一直用於測試，大部分時間門店裡都沒有Model S。

It obviously adds to the sales challenge. So I think we should see some acceleration of reservations as a function of having cars that people can actually drive. And, having more stores open and increased word-of-mouth from people seeing cars actually on the road and eliminate any question marks as to whether the car is, in the mind of the consumer, if the car brings production.

這顯然增加了銷售挑戰。所以我認為，隨著人們能夠實際駕駛的汽車的出現，我們應該會看到預訂量增加。此外，開設更多門市，以及來自實際上路車輛的人們的口碑傳播也會增加，這將消除消費者對這款車是否值得購買以及是否能夠量產的疑慮。

Thank you guys for that color. Just one follow-up. There was some news that came out with Toyota and the RAV4 announcing this week, I think they mentioned 2,600 cars over the next three years or so. Can you talk about -- is there more to that contract contemplated in that number in terms of the $100 million deal you guys have with them, besides the 2,600 cars? What is your indication of Toyota or what is the triggers for them to expand that number in future years, beyond the next three?

謝謝你們的顏色。我只想問一個後續問題。本週豐田發布了一些關於RAV4的消息，我記得他們提到了未來三年左右生產2600輛。您能談談嗎？除了2600輛之外，你們與豐田簽訂的1億美元合約中還包含其他內容嗎？您對豐田有何暗示？或者說，是什麼促使他們在未來三年甚至三年後繼續擴大生產規模？

We've had and continue to have extensive discussions with Toyota about scaling up the quantity significantly. Toyota wants to wait until the space of the RAV4 program gets on the road before potentially signing anything that's at a larger scale. But, I think that's certainly good grounds to conclude that the scale up -- the odds of scaling up, I think, are good. I am not sure I could characterize with any greater sense to you than that, but I think the reaction to the electric RAV4 will be quite positive.

我們已經與豐田就大幅增加產量進行了廣泛的討論，並且仍在繼續。豐田希望等到RAV4計畫真正上路後，再簽署任何更大規模的協議。但我認為這無疑足以證明，RAV4的產量增加——我認為，產量增加的可能性很高。我不確定我能給出更清晰的解釋，但我認為市場對RAV4電動版的反應會非常積極。

This car has amazing acceleration and handling and one thing that wasn't clear in the announcement earlier this week is it's got 60% more range than Leaf in highway, city, or any scenario, really. It should be quite a compelling vehicle from its capabilities, it's [unintelligible] capabilities compared to a Leaf. The price is a bit on the high side, but the volume numbers initially are low. So hopefully that's not an issue.

這款車擁有驚人的加速和操控性能，本週早些時候的發布會上沒有明確說明的一點是，它在高速公路、城市道路或任何路況下的續航里程都比聆風高出60%。從它的性能來看，它應該是一款相當引人注目的車型，它的性能比聆風更強。價格略高，但初期銷售不高。希望這不是問題。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Patrick Archambault from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Patrick Archambault。您的電話已接通。

I guess two questions from my end. Obviously, you have a pretty big event and a well anticipated event in front of you. Can you tell us a little bit about what your strategy is to, you know, get some cars in the hands of the press? Clearly, word-of-mouth, as you say, is important and that's going to be a key channel for getting the thing reviewed and, hopefully helping the reservation numbers. So how are you thinking about that in terms of your marketing strategy over the coming month or two?

我想問兩個問題。顯然，你們即將舉辦一場盛大的活動，而且備受期待。能否簡單介紹一下你們的策略，例如如何讓媒體看到你們的車？正如你所說，口碑行銷非常重要，這將是提升評價的關鍵管道，希望能幫助增加預訂量。那麼，在接下來的一兩個月裡，你們是如何考慮口碑行銷的呢？

We have had limited test rides for journalists, going back as far as September. The more exhaustive reviews, I think we want to wait until the car is as close to perfect as possible before we do that. Certainly, past the start of production. If we give a car that maybe has some bugs in it and a journalist is free to write whatever they write, they would presumably write about a few issues. There's no point in doing that if those expect to be cleared up within four or five weeks. We will wait until probably the end of June before doing any journalist reviews.

我們為記者們進行了有限的試駕，最早可以追溯到九月。至於更詳盡的評測，我想我們會等到車輛盡可能接近完美後再進行。當然，要等到投產之後。如果我們給一輛可能存在一些缺陷的車，而記者可以自由地寫他們想寫的東西，他們大概會寫一些問題。如果這些問題預計會在四到五週內解決，那麼這樣做就毫無意義了。我們大概會等到六月底才會進行任何記者評測。

Got you. Certainly. Maybe one for Deepak, just on the modeling side. It sounds like with some of the tooling coming in late and the characteristics of low volume production when you are ramping up, you are going to probably be using components manufactured with pre-production tooling, and if you do it right, obviously, it doesn't impact the quality but it impacts the cost.

明白了。當然。也許Deepak可以談談建模方面的問題。聽起來，由於一些工具到貨較晚，而且在量產過程中產量較低，你可能會使用預生產工具製造的組件。如果操作得當，顯然不會影響質量，但會影響成本。

Can you tell us a little bit about how you expect your material costs to trend, as you ramp up, and when you think they can come down once you have the volume behind you to help you had that 25% gross margin target?

您能否告訴我們，隨著產量的增加，您預計材料成本將如何變化？您認為在產量達到一定水準後，材料成本何時會下降，以幫助您實現 25% 的毛利率目標？

Sure. As we have said, the 25% target is when we achieved our annualized 20,000 units of production since they delivered an overhead component as well to it. That would be sometime late this year and on a full-quarter basis we will get closer to that in Q1 of next year. Initially, at this point, primarily in Q2 as you said, there could be a variety of reasons why an initial pricing from suppliers could be low.

當然。正如我們所說，25% 的目標是當我們實現年化產量 2 萬台時，因為他們也提供了間接成本。這個目標會在今年稍後實現，而按季度計算，我們將在明年第一季接近這個目標。目前，主要是在第二季度，正如您所說，供應商的初始定價可能較低，原因有很多。

It's just a mere fact that they have low volumes. Prices will be high, sorry. Just a mere fact that they have low volumes in some cases can result in higher prices. That is being factored in our financial assumptions. Most of Q2 expenses will be in R&D for those issues. That is why we also provided the guidance of our increased R&D expense in Q2.

他們的低銷量只是個簡單的事實。價格會很高，抱歉。在某些情況下，光是銷量低就會導致價格上漲。這已納入我們的財務預測。第二季的大部分支出將用於這些問題的研發。這就是為什麼我們也提供了第二季研發支出增加的指引。

To be clear, we are all, I think we agree at this point, increasingly confident of achieving 25% gross margin for 2013.

需要明確的是，我想我們現在都同意，我們對 2013 年實現 25% 的毛利率越來越有信心。

Okay. Terrific. Very helpful. Thank you.

好的。太棒了。非常有幫助。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Colin Rusch from ThinkEquity. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自 ThinkEquity 的 Colin Rusch。您的電話已接通。

Thanks so much. Can you talk about the cycle time right now in terms of car production? How many more iterations of the manufacturing process do expect to go through before you start shipping cars? I should say the Model S in specific.

非常感謝。能談談目前汽車生產的周期嗎？在開始出貨之前，預計還要經過多少次製造流程的迭代？具體來說，應該是Model S。

I'm not sure what you mean by cycle time on the reproducing cars at a very slow pace, at this point. Perhaps you can clarify that?

我現在不太明白您所說的“以非常慢的速度複製汽車的周期時間”是什麼意思。您能解釋一下嗎？

I'm just asking how long does it take, you are running test cars through there, assuming, now. I mean is it taking two weeks, is it taking a full month? How many iterations on the those process refinements do you think you'll go through before you really lock them in?

我只是問一下，假設現在你們在那裡試車需要多長時間。我的意思是，需要兩週，還是一個月？在真正敲定這些流程改進之前，你認為需要進行多少次迭代？

I think we're going to keep iterating for the next four or five weeks. Even after we start production, I think there's going to be room for improvement on the car. As there is with any product. I don't think we will ever stop iterating on improvements of the vehicle. But, we are really down to very small refinements, at this point.

我認為我們會在接下來的四、五週內持續迭代。即使開始生產後，我認為這款車仍然有改進的空間。任何產品都是如此。我認為我們永遠不會停止對車輛的迭代改進。但目前，我們其實只進行了非常細微的改進。

These are nuance issues of fit and finish, and rattle, squeak, the fine tuning of the stereo system and that kind of thing. Not major stuff, really. But, I want to be really attentive to the details. I don't want -- I want the Model S to be right all the way down to the smallest detail. That's what we are dealing with right now, going to a very tiny level detail level.

這些是一些細微的配合度、表面處理、異響、吱吱聲，以及音響系統的微調等等問題。其實不是什麼大問題。但我希望能夠真正專注於細節。我不希望——我希望Model S能夠做到面面俱到，甚至包括最小的細節。這就是我們現在正在處理的問題，深入到非常細微的細節層面。

Great, and can you talk a little bit about the cost reduction for the battery packs? How much do you think you can improve power performance through further controls as opposed to improvements on the battery itself? What is the timeline for making those sorts of improvements?

太好了，您能談談電池組成本的降低嗎？您認為透過進一步的控制，而不是改進電池本身，能將動力性能提升多少？這些改進的時間表是怎樣的？

In increasing the charge per kilowatt per hour or the range? I think, if we wanted to, right now we could build a pack with 500 miles range. It just doesn't seem to us that people would necessarily -- that most people wouldn't really have a need or want for that. So it's better to use that space for cargo capacity or other things. The bigger focus over time will be improving the cost per kilowatt hour battery pack. Improving both the non-cell cost and the cell cost.

提高每度電還是續航里程？我認為，如果我們願意，現在就可以打造一個續航里程為500英里的電池組。只是在我們看來，人們似乎不一定需要——大多數人實際上並沒有這種需求或願望。所以最好把這些空間用來裝貨物或其他東西。隨著時間的推移，更大的重點將是降低每千瓦時電池組的成本。降低非電池成本和電池成本。

We're pretty comfortable with where we are in terms of achieving the 25% gross margin next year. So, we have a pretty good idea of how to get there. And then over time, we will continue to see both the cell and non-cell pack cost decrease. Historically, it has been at roughly the 8% to 10% per year rate, not necessarily a smooth thing, but it's been that average over time. It looks like things will continue to improve at around that rate in the future.

我們對明年達成25%毛利率的目標相當有信心。所以，我們對如何實現這一目標已經有了清晰的思路。隨著時間的推移，我們會看到電池和非電池組成本持續下降。從歷史上看，這一增速大約是每年8%到10%，這不一定是平穩的，但長期以來一直保持著這個平均值。未來情況看起來會繼續以這個速度持續改善。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Adam Jonas。您的線路暢通。

A couple questions. First, I appreciate that you won't disclose more reservations ongoing on the Model X. I think that is a wise decision to focus the attention on the S. But, will you continue to publish the balance sheet item and reservation payment? And if you do, will that balance still include Model X reservations payments, as well? That is my first question.

有幾個問題。首先，我很感激您沒有透露更多正在進行的Model X預訂情況。我認為將注意力集中在Model S車型上是一個明智的決定。但是，您會繼續公佈資產負債表項目和預訂付款嗎？如果公佈了，餘額中還會包含Model X的預訂付款嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

Adam, yes, it will. We will have to report that on our balance sheet.

亞當，是的，會的。我們必須在資產負債表上報告這一點。

Yes, obviously, if we show Model S reservations show the total balance sheet number, it won't be super hard to figure out what the Model X. reservation number is. But, we don't want to call attention to something when our focus is very much on the S.

是的，顯然，如果我們顯示 Model S 的預訂量，並顯示總資產負債表數字，那麼找出 Model X 的預訂量就不難了。但是，當我們的重點放在 Model S 上時，我們不想讓別人注意到某些東西。

Understood. But it may raise some questions like my next one which is -- if you look at that ratio of the cumulative reservation balance over the reservation number, to get a ratio, that ratio did decline materially from 4Q from the end of December to the end of March around 11,500 about 10,500, implying an incremental reservation amount on incremental reservation number declined a bit sharper than that. Is there anything to read into that?

明白了。但這可能會引發一些問題，例如我的下一個問題——如果你看一下累計預訂餘額與預訂數量的比率，你會發現這個比率從第四季度（12月底到3月底）確實大幅下降了約11,500，而從約10,500下降到約10,500，這意味著增量預訂量與增量預訂數量的下降幅度要更大一些。這其中有什麼值得解讀的地方嗎？

Is that because the Model X reservation amounts are just a much lower per unit or are we seeing the incremental -- now at the first, your VIPs, super high net worth folks that maybe were higher up on the reservation list getting the performance packages, is it reflecting more of the mass-market buyer, now, if you can call it that, for the Model S incremental reservation?

這是因為 Model X 的單輛預訂量低很多嗎？還是我們看到了增量——現在首先，您的 VIP 、超高淨值人士可能在預訂名單上排名較高，獲得了性能套裝，這是否更多地反映了大眾市場買家對 Model S 增量預訂的關注，如果您可以這樣稱呼的話？

That's a good, good question, Adam. A driver is we received far fewer -- we receive more general reservations, not signature reservations. As he may recall, we basically completed or sold out all of our signature series cars in early January. And deposit of the reservation amount for signature series cars is $40,000, versus $5,000 for general production. Clearly, in Q4, that's when a big chunk of the last signature reservations came in and that resulted in that higher average reservations amount.

亞當，這個問題問得真好。一個原因是我們收到的預訂量少得多——我們收到的更多是普通預訂，而不是簽名款預訂。他可能還記得，我們​​在一月初基本上完成了所有簽名款車型的銷售，或者說已經全部售罄。簽名款車型的預訂定金為4萬美元，而普通量產車型的預訂定金為5千美元。顯然，在第四季度，最後一批簽名款車型的預訂量很大一部分是在那時收到的，這導致了平均預訂量更高。

Great. Next question is on the -- your Model S delivery target, moving it up into June. But yet you're still providing the revenue guidance of roughly stable at $30 million at the group level. That would imply, if I'm correct, this is a very small number of deliveries that you are going to be making in Q2. I mention that because I am presumably most people on the call have Tesla models have probably zero deliveries in the second quarter right now.

好的。下一個問題是關於──你們的Model S交付目標，提早到了6月。但你們仍然給出的集團層面的收入預期大致穩定在3000萬美元。如果我沒記錯的話，這意味著你們第二季的交付量非常小。我提到這一點是因為我大概知道電話會議上的大多數人都認為特斯拉車型在第二季的交付量可能為零。

So, are we talking about a handful, 10, 20, 30, that order of magnitude? It doesn't seem like it could be much more than that if you're going to be near the $30 million revenue mark.

那麼，我們說的是少數幾個，10個，20個，30個，這樣的數量級嗎？如果你要接近3000萬美元的收入目標，看起來不太可能比這更多。

Yes, it's on that order, yes. It's not like, it's not one and it's not hundreds. It's sort of in the tens.

是的，是這樣的。不是1個，也不是幾百個。大概是幾十個。

I just want to confirm that, thanks Elon. And then finally, given the pull forward, the good time frame of the launch timing, the very positive reception of Model X. Your ability to show and accelerate perhaps key developments for the Gen 3 a few years out. Have you given any further thought to potentially using an opportunity to raise a bit more capital to help fund these projects that really deserve, probably, more resources, or could deserve more resources given the great interest in your early execution on them? That's my last question. Thank you.

我只是想確認一下，謝謝埃隆。最後，考慮到提前發布、合適的發佈時間框架以及Model X的積極反響，您是否有能力展示並加速幾年後第三代車型的關鍵研發。您是否考慮過利用這個機會籌集更多資金來資助這些真正值得投入更多資源的項目，或者考慮到您對這些項目的早期實施抱有濃厚的興趣，這些項目確實值得投入更多資源？這是我的最後一個問題。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from Carter Driscoll from CapStone Investments. Your line is open.

謝謝。下一個問題來自 CapStone Investments 的 Carter Driscoll。您的電話已接通。

Good afternoon, gentlemen. I guess I just want to follow up on the reservation question. Just a little differently. I was talking to some of the stores and some of the sales people and I've talked about maybe multiple orders from individuals and maybe, some that actually exceeded multiple orders.

先生們，下午好。我想跟進一下預訂的問題。只是方式略有不同。我之前和一些門市以及銷售人員聊過，可能有人會下多個訂單，也可能有些訂單實際上超過了多個。

And maybe that effect is positive or negative in terms of your positioning the car, and then also, maybe some people have been rumored to be potentially reselling the car or flipping the car. Whether that might have a minor impact or not at all? Maybe could address that for me first?

就您對這款車的定位而言，這種影響可能是正面的，也可能是負面的。此外，也許有傳言說有人可能會轉售或炒賣這款車。這些影響是很小還是完全沒有？能先幫我解答一下嗎？

Participants, please hold on for a moment. We are having technical difficulties. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding. Please stand by. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding. Please stand by Thank you, please go ahead

各位與會者，請稍等片刻。我們遇到了技術故障。女士們，先生們，謝謝您的支持。請稍候。女士們，先生們，謝謝您的支持。請稍候。謝謝，請繼續。

Sorry about that everyone. Why don't we pick it up with Adam Jonas' last question, please? Adam, if you're on the line, do you want to repeat that, please?

各位，不好意思。我們先從亞當喬納斯的最後一個問題開始吧？亞當，如果你在線上的話，可以再問一次嗎？

Pardon me, Adam Jonas, can you please queue back up? We currently have Carter Driscoll's line open from CapStone.

不好意思，亞當喬納斯，請問你能再排隊嗎？我們目前有來自 CapStone 的 Carter Driscoll 的專線。

Why don't we take Carter's question and then we'll come back to Adam.

我們先回答卡特的問題，然後再回答亞當的問題。

Thanks for taking my question. I just want to follow up on the Model S reservations question. Talking to some of the stores, I heard a certain comments that maybe certain individuals had ordered multiple or put down multiple reservations in the chance of potentially flipping the car. Is that at all a concern? Have your heard similar things from some of your -- some feedback from your sales people?

感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想跟進一下關於 Model S 預訂的問題。我和一些門市溝通時，聽到一些評論說，有些人可能為了避免車輛被轉賣，多次訂購或多次預訂。這真的令人擔憂嗎？你們的銷售人員也有回饋過類似情況嗎？

There's been a few mentions of that. The quantity is so minimal that it is not an issue. There have been a couple issues on -- there's been a couple inputs on our web form as well on the subject. But it is so few and far between that it is not an issue.

已經有人提到這個問題。數量很少，所以不成問題。我們的網頁表單上也有一些關於這個問題的意見。但數量太少，所以不成問題。

Okay. And then just moving over quickly just a question on the Daimler agreement. In your prepared remarks you alluded to that potentially outpacing all the other development contracts you had before. Has the automobile moved from the prototype into early stage production? Maybe you could shed some color on where that is progressing right now.

好的。然後快速轉到關於戴姆勒協議的問題。您在準備好的發言中提到，該協議可能超過您之前簽訂的所有其他開發合約。這款汽車是否已經從原型車進入早期生產階段？或許您可以透露一下目前的進展。

It's effectively early stage production, although, in terms of cars that we would be prepared to deliver to customers, those would occur next month.

這實際上還處於早期生產階段，不過，就我們準備交付給客戶的汽車而言，它們將在下個月交付。

Okay. Thank you for that. That's all I have.

好的。謝謝你。我就說這麼多。

I'm sorry, so with respect to Daimler, I know, my apologies for any misinterpreting context there. We certainly delivered many Electric Smart battery packs and chargers in Mercedes A class, but we've not yet delivered anything for the new program beyond the initial prototype level.

抱歉，關於戴姆勒，我知道我可能誤解了上下文，對此我深表歉意。我們確實為梅賽德斯-奔馳A級轎車交付了許多Electric Smart電池組和充電器，但除了初始原型車之外，我們還沒有為新項目交付任何產品。

Therefore the prepared comments about it potentially exceeding your other development contracts, is that based on their market position globally? Is it based on discussions you've had before? I guess, having seen the RAV4 hit essentially the push this week, and we're getting a picture of that, what makes it comfortable that it's going to exceed all your other development contracts if the vehicle is not out of the prototype stage?

因此，您之前準備好的關於它有可能超越您其他開發合約的評論，是基於其全球市場地位嗎？是基於您之前的討論嗎？我想，鑑於RAV4本週基本上市，我們也對此有所了解，如果這款車還沒有脫離原型車階段，那麼是什麼讓您確信它會超越您所有其他開發合約呢？

Well, the nature of the agreement is in excess of everything combined to date. So, that is the plan, essentially. That is what we are gearing up to do with Daimler.

嗯，這份協議的性質是超越了迄今為止所有協議的總和。所以，本質上這就是計劃。這就是我們正準備與戴姆勒合作的事情。

Is this the last -- not to push it too hard, but is that -- do you expect something in the back half of this year? Or is it really just all the focus on the Model S today?

這是最後一次嗎？我不想太誇張，但你預計今年下半年會有什麼進展嗎？還是說現在所有的焦點都集中在 Model S 上？

Our primary focus really is on the Model S, but we certainly expect to make material progress on the new electric Mercedes Benz later this year. Production delivery in terms of our customers would see is essentially in the early 2014 time frame.

我們的主要精力確實集中在Model S上，但我們當然也希望新款梅賽德斯奔馳電動車在今年稍後能取得實質進展。就客戶而言，量產交貨時間基本上在2014年初。

Okay. I appreciate the color. Thank you.

好的。我很喜歡這個顏色。謝謝。

Thank you. We do have a question from Adam Jonas. Your line is open.

謝謝。我們確實有 Adam Jonas 的問題。您的電話已接通。

Thanks for taking a follow-up. You mentioned that the Model S has now been fully certified by the US Environmental Protection Agency and the State of California. But, unless I missed it in the release, I didn't see the disclosure of what the mileage was going to be. Presumably when this goes on sale and initial deliveries are in June, unless I'm mistaken, won't it have to have a sticker with the combined fuel economy?

感謝您的後續採訪。您提到Model S現在已經獲得了美國環保署和加州的全面認證。但是，除非我錯過了發布會，否則我並沒有看到關於續航里程的披露。如果我沒記錯的話，這款車在6月上市並進行首批交付時，它是否必須貼上綜合油耗的標籤？

Yes. Are you talking about the MPG rating?

是的。您說的是 MPG 等級嗎？

Exactly.

確切地。

And the range I think is what -- (multiple speakers)

我認為的範圍是－（多位發言者）

I'm not sure if you had a chance to see the range blog we published earlier today. But, as far as the EPA fuel economy rating, we are expecting it to be at least -- initially it will be 89 mpg, although we think we might be able to improve that with some efficiency improvements at the charger level, because it's measuring the a/c watt hours in -- so I think those -- we're not going to promise anything but we think there's more room for improvement there. But the current official rating is 89 mpg. Then, on the two-cycle test we have 320 miles and on the five-cycle test, 265.

我不知道您是否有機會看到我們今天早些時候發布的續航里程部落格。不過，就EPA的燃油經濟性評級而言，我們預計至少——初始值為89英里/加侖（約29.9公里/加侖），儘管我們認為可以透過提高充電器的效率來提高這一水平，因為它測量的是交流電瓦時——所以我認為——我們不能承諾任何結果，但我們認為在這方面還有更大的改進空間。目前官方評級是89英里/加侖。然後，在兩循環測試中，我們的續航里程為320英里（約49.9公里），在五循環測試中，我們的續航里程為265英里（約32.9公里）。

Can you repeat those, please?

你能重複一遍嗎？

On the two-cycle test 320 miles, so it's actually 20 miles above our target. On the five-cycle test, which is a much more intense test, where the car can sometimes go -- it goes up to 80 miles an hour type of thing. That is 265-mile range.

在兩循環測試中，續航里程為320英里，實際上比我們的目標高出20英里。在五循環測試中，測試強度要高得多，汽車有時可以達到每小時80英里的速度。也就是說，續航里程為265英哩。

Excellent. And you only release it for the largest battery size?

太棒了。你們只推出最大容量的電池版本嗎？

Correct. All initial deliveries are for the largest battery size.

正確。所有首批交付的電池均為最大尺寸。

Okay.

好的。

And I just want to mention everyone should go check out our website blog. You will see a very thorough letter from Elon and JB Straubel, our CTO, that explains a lot of the details and some of the numbers behind that. It's interesting reading.

我想提一下，大家應該去看看我們的網站部落格。你會看到一封來自 Elon 和我們首席技術長 JB Straubel 的非常詳盡的信，信中解釋了許多細節以及背後的一些數字。讀起來很有意思。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll have an exciting thing to announce later this year regarding long-distance travel with the Model S. Sometime, probably, in the July-ish time frame. It's going to be pretty cool.

今年晚些時候，我們將宣布一個令人興奮的消息，關於 Model S 的長途旅行。大概在七月左右。這將會非常酷。

Great. Thanks Elon.

太好了！謝謝埃隆。

Our next question comes from Dan Galves from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Dan Galves。您的電話已接通。

Hey, good afternoon. You guys mentioned that there was still some stamping dies to be delivered next month. Are you comfortable with all your suppliers in terms of them being able to supply production parts in time for the launch?

大家下午好。你們之前提到下個月還有一些沖壓模具需要交付。你們對所有供應商是否能夠按時供應生產零件感到放心？

Yes. We are highly confident of that.

是的，我們對此非常有信心。

Okay. Got it. In terms of the Tesla stores and service centers, can you give us an update on how many you feel like you need to support global sales of the Model S and the Model X? Clearly, by owning your own stores, you guys are capturing a lot of the margin that is usually taken by franchise dealers. But, do you have an estimate for what percentage of sales the Tesla store and service center costs will represent as a percentage of your revenue over time?

好的，明白了。關於特斯拉門市和服務中心，您能否更新一下，為了支援 Model S 和 Model X 的全球銷售，您認為需要多少家店和服務中心？顯然，透過擁有自己的門市，你們獲得了很大一部分利潤，而這些利潤通常由特許經銷商獲得。但是，您能估算一下，特斯拉門市和服務中心的成本在你們長期收入中所佔的比例是多少嗎？

Dan, to answer your earlier question, we expect to have close to 30 stores by the end of this year. As we look at next year and growth of Model X in 2014, we will be somewhere north of 50 stores at that time. We think, globally, that gives us enough capacity and throughput in the stores to sell projected volumes of Model S and X as we have shared externally so far.

丹，回答你之前的問題，我們預計到今年年底將擁有近30家門市。考慮到明年以及2014年Model X的成長，屆時我們的門市數量將達到50家以上。我們認為，在全球範圍內，這將為我們的門市提供足夠的容量和吞吐量，以銷售我們迄今為止對外公佈的Model S和Model X的預期銷售。

We certainly have a sense of our percentage of revenue for these stores; it's part of our SG&A expenses. We don't necessarily split that out but, I can tell you that we find that we are very efficient in our selling, as compared to the typical dealership model. That is something we absolutely track.

我們當然清楚這些門市的收入佔比；這是我們銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）的一部分。我們不一定把這部分費用單獨列出來，但我可以告訴你，與典型的經銷商模式相比，我們的銷售效率非常高。這一點我們絕對會追蹤。

We'd don't have a national advertising spend. It's zero. At some point, we will want to do that. But, probably not for the first few years, at least. Right now, demand outstrips supply. We need to improve supply. That's our focus.

我們沒有全國性的廣告支出，現在是零。未來某個時候，我們會想這麼做。但至少在最初幾年可能不會。目前，需求大於供給。我們需要改善供應。這是我們的重點。

Okay. Thanks very much for that. Can you give us an update on when you expect to begin sales in Europe of the Model S? Not sure if you have announced pricing for the European vehicle -- but when would that be, if you haven't already?

好的。非常感謝。您能否透露一下 Model S 預計何時在歐洲上市？我不確定您是否已經公佈了歐洲版車型的售價——如果還沒有公佈的話，具體是什麼時候呢？

Sure. We expect to start delivery in Europe early next year. We have not yet announced final pricing for Europe. It's going to be sensible pricing compared to what's in the US. It will be a little higher, to account for exchange rate variations and the logistic cost of bringing things to Europe and the import duties and what not. But, it will be, otherwise, quite similar to our US pricing.

當然。我們預計明年初開始在歐洲交付。我們尚未公佈歐洲的最終定價。與美國相比，我們的定價會比較合理。考慮到匯率波動、將產品運往歐洲的物流成本、進口關稅等等，我們的定價會略高一些。但除此之外，我們的定價與美國的價格基本一致。

Got you. There are certain countries in Europe that the tax regimes are very favorable to EVs. Is there any opportunity to take advantage of that a bit by selling the car higher, or do you think the pricing will be consistent across Europe?

明白了。歐洲有些國家的稅收制度對電動車非常有利。有沒有機會利用這一點，提高電動車的售價？還是您認為整個歐洲的定價會保持一致？

It's important to do the right thing for customers. If they think we are taking advantage of them through lower tax rates, I think that would be very bad. But we are going to have really great sales in a lot of those countries. We are huge in Norway. In fact I have to visit Norway at some point. We actually have a phenomenal customer base in Norway. And in places like Switzerland, the Netherlands, Denmark --

為顧客做好事很重要。如果他們覺得我們透過降低稅率來佔他們的便宜，那我覺得很糟糕。但我們在很多國家都會有非常好的銷售。我們在挪威的業務非常龐大。事實上，我得找個時間去挪威看看。我們在挪威擁有龐大的客戶群。在瑞士、荷蘭、丹麥等地—

The Scandinavian countries are really strong on the incentives. The customers have responded very positively both for Roadster and for Model S and Model X.

斯堪的納維亞國家的獎勵措施確實很到位。 Roadster、Model S 和 Model X 的消費者反應都非常正面。

I think London is going to be a very strong market, as well. There is no congestion -- you don't pay congestion fee if you have an electric car. The city is taking a lot of steps to install access to electricity for electric vehicles for charging. But, at any rate, from a pricing standpoint. We will probably see a slight premium in Europe. But, we don't want to try to push to get a lot of premium in Europe. I think that would be -- send the wrong message to customers.

我認為倫敦也將是一個非常強大的市場。這裡沒有擁擠——如果你開電動車，就不用付壅塞費。倫敦正在採取許多措施，為電動車充電提供電力。但無論如何，從定價的角度來看，我們在歐洲可能會看到略微溢價。但我們不想在歐洲大力推廣溢價。我認為這會向消費者傳遞錯誤的訊息。

That makes sense. Thanks very much.

很有道理。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Ben Schuman from Pacific Crest. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自 Pacific Crest 的 Ben Schuman。您的電話已接通。

Hi, guys, thanks for taking my call. Maybe, Elon, can you discuss how you divide your time these days between Tesla, Space X and Solar City with all three companies approaching such critical events and milestones?

大家好，感謝您接聽我的電話。伊隆，您能談談您最近是如何分配在特斯拉、Space X和Solar City的時間的嗎？這三家公司都面臨著如此重要的事件和里程碑。

Yes, it is intense right now, I have to admit. I'm not getting a lot of sleep. My time is generally, on average, split roughly 50/50 between Tesla and Space X. And then Solar City is less than one day a month. That doesn't take much time at all. Credit for Solar City really goes to Lyndon and Peter Rive who are doing an awesome job running a company. And I think it's going to have just an outstanding IPO later this year. I don't think most people realize how good it's going to be. It's going to be really good.

是的，我得承認，現在工作很緊張。我睡眠不足。我的時間平均下來，大概一半一半花在特斯拉和Space X上。然後Solar City一個月只花不到一天。這根本不需要太多時間。 Solar City的成功要歸功於Lyndon和Peter Rive，他們把公司管理得非常出色。而且我認為它今年稍後的IPO一定會非常成功。我想大多數人可能都沒意識到它會有多好。它一定會非常好。

Yes. Basically, I am on e-mail a lot. I think I am primarily an e-mail processing device. That is really helpful to run both companies simultaneously. And then when I'm with my kids, when they don't need my direct attention, then I'm on e-mail as well. That's kind of how it works.

是的。基本上，我經常使用電子郵件。我覺得我主要是個電子郵件處理機。這對於同時經營兩家公司非常有幫助。然後，當我和孩子們在一起的時候，當他們不需要我直接關注的時候，我也會用電子郵件。大概就是這樣。

All right, great, thanks. An then, with the Toyota announcement, given the size of the production contract we get to about 38,000 Tesla content per vehicle. You mentioned in the shareholder letter that the Mercedes powertrain cost can be low enough on higher volumes to get a higher-volume vehicle. Can you walk through the steps there? Is it all just pure economy to scale or is there some additional cost reduction that you can point to?

好的，太好了，謝謝。然後，豐田宣布了這一消息，考慮到生產合約的規模，我們每輛車大約可以組裝38,000個特斯拉零件。您在致股東的信中提到，如果產量增加，梅賽德斯的動力總成成本可以足夠低，從而生產出更高產量的車型。能具體講一下具體步驟嗎？這完全是規模經濟效應，還是有其他成本降低措施？

Ben, just want to clarify a certain point. It's very tempting to take the approximations that you just did of $100 million deal versus the volumes announced to come up with $38,000, It's a simple math, but I have to say it's very imprecise and not very useful. There are many elements to our transaction with Toyota in addition to volume. We have partnership with them on ongoing training and support and service and warranty and a few other things. The analysis of cost that you mentioned is not that straightforward on a per unit basis.

本，我只想澄清一點。你剛才說的1億美元交易與宣布的3.8萬美元交易量相比，很容易讓人覺得是近似值。這只是一個簡單的數學計算，但我必須說，它非常不精確，而且不太實用。我們與豐田的交易除了數量之外，還有很多因素。我們與他們合作，提供持續的培訓、支援、服務和保固以及其他一些服務。你提到的成本分析，並不是單位成本分析的那麼簡單。

Furthermore, for confidentiality reasons, as you can imagine, we can't share with you the price itself of the powertrain and the underlying cost to us. So, I want to clarify that. And, also keep in mind that the volumes we're talking here on the Toyota program are far lower. And there is an inherent design inefficiency, when you are trying to develop a powertrain and make it fit in an internal combustion engine vehicle.

此外，出於保密原因，正如您所想，我們無法與您分享動力系統本身的價格以及我們的潛在成本。因此，我想澄清一下。另外，請記住，我們在這裡討論的豐田項目的產量要低得多。當你試圖開發一套動力系統並將其安裝在內燃機汽車上時，存在著固有的設計效率低下的問題。

It doesn't give us those cost savings that we get inherently from the Model S platform. When we look at the higher volumes, for the Daimler program, there are huge economies of scale and other design factors that help us out.

它並不能像Model S平台一樣為我們帶來成本節省。考慮到更高的產量，對於戴姆勒計畫來說，龐大的規模經濟和其他設計因素對我們很有幫助。

Yes. Just to be clear, the economy scale is the single biggest driver of cost reduction. I think first it's an approximation, if you scale and production by a factor of 10, your costs will generally drop by half. That's a good generalization, I think. So, that is where most of the cost savings is coming from.

是的。需要明確的是，經濟規模是降低成本的最大驅動力。我認為首先這是一個近似值，如果你將生產規模擴大10倍，你的成本通常會下降一半。我認為這是一個很好的概括。所以，大部分的成本節省就是從這裡來。

And then there will obviously be continued design improvements as we figure out how to achieve the same end goal in a smarter way. Those are the two drivers of mass market, of technology getting to mass market which is continued iteration on the design and economies of scale. That is generally true for any technology.

隨著我們找到以更聰明的方式實現最終目標的方法，設計顯然會持續改進。這是大眾市場、技術走向大眾市場的兩大驅動力，而大眾市場則需要不斷迭代設計，並實現規模經濟。任何技術通常都是如此。

Great. Thanks for the help on the math, there That is very helpful.

太好了。謝謝你在數學方面的幫助，這很有幫助。

Our next call comes from Jesse Pichel from Jefferies. Your line is open

下一個電話是傑富瑞的傑西·皮切爾 (Jesse Pichel)。您的線路已開通

Yes. Good evening gentlemen. I'd like to ask about the Daimler drivetrains. In your letter you allude to tremendous volumes. Can these volumes be large enough to change the cost structure of the S drivetrains? Was a contract of this magnitude factored into your 25% margin guide?

是的。先生們晚上好。我想問一下戴姆勒動力傳動系統的情況。您在信中提到了龐大的訂單量。這些訂單量是否足以改變S系列動力傳動系統的成本結構？如此規模的合約是否已計入您25%的利潤率指導中？

With respect to the margin, that is not really -- we're talking about the 25% gross margin, were talking about the Model S. Just by itself. So, no, that's not been factored in. I think economies of scale is helpful. There does need to be some commonality to achieve those economies of scale. There will be some amount of commonality so, I guess it would probably be of some help to the Model S costs to add the Daimler volume in there. It's not directly additive but I think it's at least partially additive to the economies of scale.

至於利潤率，其實並非如此──我們說的是25%的毛利率，我們討論的是Model S本身。所以，不，這並沒有被考慮進去。我認為規模經濟是有幫助的。為了實現規模經濟，確實需要一些共同點。肯定會有一些共同點，所以我認為把戴姆勒的產量加進去，可能會對Model S的成本有所幫助。這不會直接帶來附加效應，但我認為至少對規模經濟有一定程度的附加效應。

There has been a lot of chatter in the media about the Tesla battery pack showing up in solar projects. Do you think that solar could be a driver of your -- a significant driver of your battery sales in the future?

媒體上有很多關於特斯拉電池組應用於太陽能專案的討論。您認為太陽能會成為未來電池銷售的重要推手嗎？

I don't think we want to show all of our cards right now. But I think there is some interesting potential in that direction. Maybe in partnership with a certain solar company.

我覺得我們現在還不想攤牌。但我覺得這個方向有一些有趣的潛力。或許可以和某家太陽能公司合作。

When investors are thinking about what it takes for EVs to really penetrate the market, we always come back to the charging infrastructure buildout. Do you think you could give us some color on how you see this build out occurring? Along key corridors? Where are we in the buildout? What are you doing to accelerate the buildout? What business models do you see emerging?

當投資人思考電動車真正滲透市場需要什麼時，我們總是會提到充電基礎設施的建設。您能否詳細介紹一下您認為充電基礎建設將如何進行？沿著關鍵的交通幹線？目前進展到哪一步了？您正在採取哪些措施來加速充電基礎建設？您認為哪些商業模式正在興起？

I think we are going to have a very exciting announcement on the charging front in the July time frame, I alluded to earlier. I don't want to release details of that, quite yet. But, I think it's really going to -- the light bulb is going to turn on when people see that. It's pretty awesome. I think it's really going to put in the missing piece of the puzzle. Now is not quite the right time to talk about it.

我認為我們將在7月份發布一個非常令人興奮的充電公告，我之前提到過。我現在還不想透露細節。但我認為它真的會…當人們看到它的時候，一定會豁然開朗。這真是太棒了。我認為它真的會填補我們缺少的那塊拼圖。現在還不是談論它的最佳時機。

That's what I was hoping to get. I have one more question. You talk about Norway, but you missed the big -- perhaps the biggest market for EVs, which is China. What kind of interest are you getting from China, either for store or for a drivetrain?

這正是我希望得到的。我還有一個問題。您提到了挪威，但您忽略了最大的電動車市場—中國。您從中國獲得了哪些方面的興趣？無論是在實體店還是在動力傳動系統方面？

Was certainly see China as a very important market. We are hoping to begin sales in China towards the end of next year. There is a lot of variables in there. With regard to approvals from the Chinese authorities. Our aspiration would be to begin sales there in the latter half of next year. It's an important market. We are not currently in a discussion for any powertrain supply deals to companies within China, but that's, I suppose, a possibility in the long term. In the short term, we are very focused on our partnerships with Daimler and Toyota.

我們當然視中國為一個非常重要的市場。我們希望在明年年底開始在中國銷售。這其中有很多變數，例如中國政府的批准。我們希望在明年下半年開始在中國銷售。這是一個重要的市場。目前我們還沒有與中國公司洽談任何動力總成供應協議，但我認為從長遠來看，這是有可能的。短期內，我們非常專注於與戴姆勒和豐田的合作。

Thank you, gentlemen.

謝謝各位。

Our next question comes from Andrea James from Dougherty and Company. Your line is open

下一個問題來自Dougherty and Company的Andrea James。您的線路已開放

Thanks for taking my question. I'm trying to gauge the opportunity in the Daimler partnership, if you look at all the powertrain agreements signed in Tesla history, it's about $140 million in agreements. Is that about right? Are we talking about a Mercedes contract value that is an order of magnitude greater than that or just simply greater?

感謝您回答我的問題。我正在嘗試評估與戴姆勒合作的機會。如果你看看特斯拉史上簽署的所有動力總成協議，你會發現總價值約1.4億美元。是這樣嗎？我們談論的梅賽德斯合約價值是否比這個數字高出一個數量級，或者僅僅是高出一些？

Yes, the $140 million is probably what's partially in our financial statement, Andrea. There is a little bit more to it as well as our existing Toyota agreement which is not in our financials as it will happen over the next few years. So our number is north of that, roughly in the $280 million or so million range. In terms of the Daimler contract, it's north of that, how much, I think it's probably best to just wait until we mature or get to that level and talk beyond. But we wanted to still give you some sense of scale by providing that guidance.

是的，1.4億美元可能只是我們財務報表的一部分，安德里亞。還有更多，以及我們現有的豐田協議，但這筆交易不在我們的財務報表裡，因為要在未來幾年才能完成。所以我們的數字應該要更高，大約在2.8億美元左右。至於戴姆勒的合同，應該更高，至於具體金額，我認為最好等到我們成熟或達到那個水平再談。但我們仍然希望透過提供這樣的指引，讓大家對規模有一定的了解。

Thank you.

謝謝。

There is certainly the possibility for it to lead to something that is an order of magnitude greater but we need to get things -- we reach one level after another. The question of proving ourselves at each successive level. Which we have been able to do thus far. But, we need to keep doing that in order to progress to, essentially, the next level.

當然，這有可能帶來更偉大、更豐碩的成果，但我們需要一步步地提升——我們需要在每個階段都證明自己。到目前為止，我們已經做到了這一點。但為了邁向更高的水平，我們需要繼續努力。

Okay. And then R&D in Q3, do you look at that as roughly about half of Q2, because some of that shifts up into COGS?

好的。那麼，第三季的研發支出，您是否認為大約佔第二季支出的一半，因為其中一部分轉移到了銷貨成本 (COGS) 中？

A lot will shift into COGS. I think half is probably a bit on the high side. In terms of half reduction, I mean. So, it all depends and there's some accounting implications here that we need to sort out as to what costs can turn into COGS and what time versus in R&D. We will provide you better guidance when we do the Q2 call and go into Q3 specifically.

很多成本都會轉為銷貨成本。我覺得一半可能有點高。我的意思是，減半。所以，這完全取決於具體情況，這裡面有一些會計方面的影響，我們需要理清哪些成本可以轉為銷貨成本，哪些時間用於研發。我們會在第二季電話會議以及第三季財報發佈時，提供更精確的指導。

Okay. And then just raising the lower end of your guidance by the $10 million there on the earlier deliveries. What exactly -- can you just go over what exactly is in the guidance range, again? And what about the early delivery helps you to feel more confident on the lower end?

好的。然後，您剛才把早期交付的預期下限提高了1000萬美元。您能再說一遍，超出預期範圍的具體數字是多少嗎？早期交付如何幫助您對下限更有信心？

The think its a measure of the slightly higher confidence that we have in achieving our numbers that enabled us to narrow the range.

我們認為，這反映了我們對實現目標的信心略高，這使我們能夠縮小範圍。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Our next question comes from Michael Lew from Needham. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自尼德姆的邁克爾·盧 (Michael Lew)。您的電話已接通。

Thanks and good afternoon. On the last call, you mentioned that you were thinking about a mainstream offering for Gen 3 instead of an updated roadster. Do you have any update on your thought process, there, like to what type of market signs you're looking for?

謝謝，下午好。上次電話會議中，您提到您正在考慮為第三代車型推出主流車型，而不是升級版敞篷跑車。請問您有什麼最新的想法嗎？例如，您正在尋找什麼樣的市場訊號？

It's very aspirational, at this point, because our attention is focused on the Model S. And our key powertrain partners, Toyota and Daimler. So, I mean, it's late 2015 would be the earliest. For 2016 is probably most likely. Something like that.

目前，這非常令人嚮往，因為我們的注意力集中在Model S上，以及我們主要的動力系統合作夥伴——豐田和戴姆勒。所以，最早也要到2015年底。最有可能是2016年。大概就是這樣。

Got it. Okay. Also, on the RAV4 electric, are you providing multiple versions of a battery pack as Toyota had stated a100-mile range and you have highlighted in the shareholders letter that you are providing a range of 170 miles?

明白了。好的。另外，關於RAV4電動車，你們是否提供多種版本的電池組？豐田先前聲稱續航里程為100英里，而你們在致股東的信中強調，續航里程為170英里。

I think there was, unfortunately the way that the information was communicated was a little confusing. There is actually only this one battery pack. The range is actually, if you were comparing today to what the Leaf 100-mile range is, which is city driving, that compares to the 170-mile number for the RAV4 or 165, 165 or 170 miles. If you look at the Leaf, five-cycle test, that range is around the 70 to 75 mile number, I believe. Around maybe 71 or 73. We think it's probably 73.

我認為是有的，可惜的是訊息傳達的方式有點混亂。實際上只有一個電池組。如果拿現在的Leaf 100英里的城市行駛里程來比較，那麼它的續航里程實際上相當於RAV4的170英里，或者165、165或170英里。如果你看一下Leaf的五衝程測試，我認為它的續航里程在70到75英里之間。大概在71或73英里左右。我們認為可能是73英里。

So, when comparing to the five-cycle range, the RAV4 range is around 105 miles. So, in both cases it's -- in any given range scenario -- the RAV4 is about 60% more range than a Leaf. I think where you were a bit confused was comparing the Leaf's city range to the RAV4's five-cycle range. Which is not apples-to-apples, obviously.

所以，與五衝程續航里程相比，RAV4 的續航里程約為 105 英里。所以，在這兩種情況下——在任何給定的續航里程場景下——RAV4 的續航里程都比聆風多 60% 左右。我認為你有點困惑的地方在於，將聆風的城市續航里程與 RAV4 的五衝程續航里程進行比較。這顯然不是一回事。

Okay. I was trying to reconcile the 100 from Toyota and your 170. I was a little bit confused. That's a big 70 mile delta, unless Toyota is talking about 100 miles strictly highway driving but still that is a nice 70 mile increment on the city side.

好的。我試著把豐田的100英里和你的170英里連結起來。我有點困惑。這70英里的差距太大了，除非豐田說的是嚴格意義上的高速公路行駛100英里，但在城市路況下，這70英里的增量仍然很大。

I'm sorry, could you repeat the question?

抱歉，您能重複這個問題嗎？

Toyota had stated 100 miles and you're at 170 for the RAV4. There's a 70-mile delta, there. I guess -- well maybe Toyota is mentioning highway driving versus city driving.

豐田標稱100英里，而RAV4實際上是170英里。這中間有70英哩的差距。我猜——或許豐田指的是高速公路行駛和城市道路行駛。

What Toyota's referring to there is what's called the five cycle -- it's an extremely arduous range. It's at least 100 miles. Actually, depending on the configuration pockets at least 105 miles, and may be as high as 120 miles. If you are to compare that to the Leaf, you would compare to the Leaf's five cycle range which is 73 miles.

豐田指的是所謂的五衝程──這是一個極其艱難的續航里程。續航里程至少要達到100英里（約160公里）。實際上，根據配置不同，續航里程至少可以達到105英里（約168公里），最高可達120英里（約192公里）。如果要與聆風進行比較，可以與聆風的五衝程續航里程（73英里）進行比較。

Okay. I get that. And then, one more--

好的。我明白了。然後，再說一次——

What happened in the media was people were looking at the Leaf's city range of 100 miles, and comparing that to the RAV4's five-cycle range and those are not comparable numbers. That's where you -- it makes more sense to compare it to the almost 170-mile range for the RAV4.

媒體報導的其實是，人們把聆風的城市續航里程（100英里）與RAV4的五衝程續航里程進行比較，發現這兩個數字根本無法比較。所以，與其比較RAV4近170英哩的續航里程才更有意義。

I agree. And also, one last question. You mentioned a high-- earlier you mentioned a high conversion rate for the Model S sign-ups to reservations. Have you seen any signs of, let's say cannibalization for Model X, since those that are on the wait list for the S may just choose to switch over if they can get on the Model X a little bit earlier?

我同意。還有最後一個問題。您之前提到過 Model S 的註冊到預訂的轉換率很高。您是否看到任何跡象，例如 Model X 的蠶食現象？因為那些在等待 Model S 的人，如果能早點拿到 Model X，可能會選擇換車？

Well, the Model X deliveries will be really -- if you put down a deposit on the Model X, you're going to get the car in almost two years, maybe 22 months, that kind of thing. You are getting a car in Q2 of 2014, if you put down a deposit for the Model X. Whereas, you getting a car in Q2 of next year if you put down a deposit on the Model S, so there's about a year advantage there.

嗯，Model X 的交貨時間會比較長——如果你付了 Model X 的訂金，大概兩年後，或是 22 個月左右就能拿到車。如果你支付了 Model X 的訂金，那麼你大概會在 2014 年第二季拿到車。而如果你支付了 Model S 的訂金，那麼你大概會在明年第二季拿到車，所以這比 Model X 的交貨時間大約快一年。

We'll see how deposits track. I think it will remain true that you be able to get the Model S a lot sooner than a Model X for quite some time.

我們將觀察定金的走勢。我認為在相當長的一段時間內，Model S 的入手速度會比 Model X 快得多。

Okay. I misunderstood. I thought they would be rolling out late in 2013. Thank you.

好的。我理解錯了。我以為他們會在2013年底推出。謝謝。

In very tiny numbers. It's possible. But, if you put down a deposit, now, you're really going to get your car in about 22 months-ish. That's overly precise. Figure it at approximately two years.

非常小的數目。有可能。但是，如果你現在付了訂金，你實際上會在大約22個月後拿到車。這個數字太精確了。估計大約是兩年。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

Patrick, we probably only have time for one more question.

派崔克，我們可能只剩下時間再問一個問題了。

Our last question comes from the line of Ben Rose from Battle Road Research. Your line is open.

最後一個問題來自 Battle Road Research 的 Ben Rose。您的電話已接通。

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Just a question from the shareholder letter, you say quote, selected cars are independently purchased and crash tested by the NHTSA. Do know whether the Model S will be one of those cars? And if so, when?

先生們，下午好。我只想問一下股東信裡提到的問題，您說的是，部分車型是獨立購買的，並由美國國家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）進行碰撞測試。您知道Model S會是其中之一嗎？如果是的話，什麼時候？

It will definitely be one of those cars. I am not sure -- in fact I'm not sure if they actually tell us exactly when they do it. Because, I think that they just buy the cars secretly and we don't actually know where they are in the queue.

它肯定會是其中一輛。我不確定——事實上，我不確定他們是否真的告訴我們具體時間。因為我認為他們只是秘密購買車輛，我們實際上並不知道它們在隊列中的位置。

But you would be surprised if they didn't issue a crash safety test rating by say August or September?

但如果他們在八月或九月之前沒有發布碰撞安全測試評級，你會感到驚訝嗎？

Honestly, I don't know. But, we do feel that we are very confident that when they do test the car, it will be at the five-star safety rating level. In fact, I think the Model S is, in my opinion, will be the safest car on the road. We have certain architectural advantages that other cars don't have like a much longer crumple zone in the front because we don't have a big engine block that we've got to deal with.

說實話，我不知道。但我們確實非常有信心，等他們測試的時候，它的安全評級會達到五顆星。事實上，我認為Model S將是路上最安全的汽車。我們擁有一些其他車型所不具備的結構優勢，例如車頭的潰縮區更長，因為我們沒有大型引擎缸體。

A sidewall intrusion is, we think will probably be the lowest of any sedan. And our rear crash performance is definitely going to be better than any sedan. Because we are protecting for the third-row occupants. For the rear impact, the car is designed to not just take a highway speed impact in the rear, but able to take a highway speed impact on half the car. That's an important threshold for safety for the third-row seats. It has very good rollover protection. I really think this is going to the safest car on the road.

我們認為，側壁侵入程度可能是所有轎車中最低的。而且我們的後部碰撞性能絕對會比任何轎車都好。因為我們在保護第三排乘客。對於後部碰撞，這款車的設計不僅能夠承受高速公路速度下的後部撞擊，還能承受一半車身的撞擊。這是第三排座椅安全的一個重要門檻。它擁有非常好的翻滾保護。我真的認為它將成為路上最安全的汽車。

Okay. Thanks very much. I appreciate it.

好的。非常感謝。我很感激。

Thank you everyone for joining us today on the call. We look forward to talking with you next quarter. We will also be attending a couple conferences in the month of May. Including the Deutsche Bank Clean Tech conference next week. Thank you everyone. Have a great day.

感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。我們期待下個季度與大家見面。我們還將在五月參加一些會議，包括下週的德意志銀行清潔技術會議。謝謝大家！祝大家愉快！

Ladies and gentlemen thanks for participating in today's program. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家參加今天的節目。節目到此結束。請大家斷開連線。