特斯拉 (TSLA) 2011 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Tesla Motors Incorporated fourth quarter 2011 financial results Q&A conference call. During today's call, all lines will be in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions on how to participate will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. Now I would like to turn the program over to Jeff Evanson.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加特斯拉汽車公司 2011 年第四季財務業績問答電話會議。在今天的通話中，所有線路將處於只聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時將提供如何參與的說明。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄音。現在我想將這個節目交給傑夫·埃文森。

Thank you, Matthew. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Tesla Motors fourth quarter and full-year 2011 financial results Q&A session. I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Tesla's Chairman, CEO and Chief Product Architect and Deepak Ahuja, Tesla's Chief Financial Officer. We announced our financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year shortly after 1 PM Pacific time today. The shareholder letter, financial results and webcast of this Q&A are all available at the Company's Investor Relations website at IR.teslamotors.com. Like last quarter, this call will consist of some brief remarks by Elon followed by time for questions-and-answers. We will conduct the Q&A session live so if you have not already done so, please log in now if you wish to ask a question. During the course of this call, we may discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. Such statements are only predictions based on management's current expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. Such forward-looking statements represent our views only as of today and should not be relied upon after today. We also disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Now let me pass the call to Elon.

謝謝你，馬修。大家下午好。歡迎參加特斯拉汽車2011年第四季和全年財務業績問答會。今天與我一起參加活動的還有特斯拉董事長、執行長兼首席產品架構師馬斯克和特斯拉財務長迪帕克·阿胡加。我們今天太平洋時間下午 1 點後不久公佈了第四季度和全年財務業績。股東信函、財務結果和本問答的網路直播均可在公司投資者關係網站 IR.teslamotors.com 上查閱。與上一季一樣，本次電話會議將包括埃隆的一些簡短發言，然後是問答時間。我們將現場進行問答環節，因此如果您還沒有登入並希望提問，請立即登入。在本次電話會議中，我們可能會討論我們的業務前景並做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明僅是基於管理階層目前預期所做的預測。由於多種風險和不確定因素，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 表中提及的風險和不確定因素，實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。此類前瞻性陳述僅代表我們截至今天的觀點，今天之後不應依賴該觀點。我們也不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的任何義務。現在讓我把電話轉給埃隆。

All right, well, welcome. (inaudible) to make a few comments. I'm incredibly excited by the sales and the interest in the Model X. When you introduce the product that is really groundbreaking and innovative you don't necessarily know how customers are going to react to that and they are reacting incredibly well and from a customer standpoint the Model X was clearly a home run and they've spoken with their dollars by putting down reservations on the Model X. In fact, if anyone on the call is interested in a Model X, I recommend putting down a deposit soon because this is by far the best selling product in Tesla history by a significant margin. It is just great. That's the main thing I wanted to mention. And then the other thing being that we've begun work on our first full Mercedes powertrain. Previously we've done the battery packs and the chargers and now we doing an entire powertrain for Mercedes. As is Tesla policy we don't comment on the details of powertrain agreements. We leave that to our strategic partner. So we will leave that up to Daimler whether they want to speak in more detailed about that. With those [interrupted] comments let's jump into questions.

好的，歡迎光臨。 （聽不清楚）提出幾點評論。我對 Model X 的銷售和關注感到非常興奮。當你推出一款真正具有突破性和創新性的產品時，你不一定知道客戶會對此作何反應，但他們的反應非常好，從客戶的角度來看，Model X 顯然是一個本壘打，他們通過預訂 Model X 來表達他們的心聲。事實上，如果電話會議中的任何人對 Model X 感興趣，我建議盡快支付訂金，因為這是特斯拉歷史上迄今為止最暢銷的產品，而且銷量遙遙領先。這真是太棒了。這就是我想提的主要內容。另一件事是我們已經開始研發我們的第一個完整的梅賽德斯動力系統。之前我們曾為梅賽德斯製造過電池組和充電器，現在我們為梅賽德斯製造整個動力系統。根據特斯拉的政策，我們不對動力系統協議的細節發表評論。我們將此留給我們的策略夥伴。因此，我們將由戴姆勒來決定他們是否願意更詳細地談論這個問題。針對這些[被打斷]的評論，我們來開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) Amir Rozwadowski, Barclays Capital.

(操作員指示) 巴克萊資本的阿米爾羅茲瓦多夫斯基 (Amir Rozwadowski)。

Elon, on the discussion of the Daimler contract, I realize that you folks don't provide too much color in terms of the partnership, but in the past you have highlighted that you have a number of these discussions underway. Are these the folks that you have suggested could ultimately end up being a pretty significantly sized opportunity? Or should we assume that is with someone else at the moment?

伊隆，關於戴姆勒合約的討論，我知道你們在合作方面沒有提供太多細節，但過去你曾強調過正在進行一些此類討論。這些人是否如您所建議的那樣，最終會成為相當大的機會？還是我們應該假設此刻是和其他人在一起？

Tricky question. I'll have to break that question apart a little bit. I do expect that this deal will be significant and probably more significant than the sum of all things else we've done with Daimler to date. That's about all I can say on that front. Are there other deals of significance in discussion? Yes, there are.

棘手的問題。我必須把這個問題稍微分解一下。我確實預計這筆交易將具有重大意義，並且可能比迄今為止我們與戴姆勒所做的所有其他交易的總和更為重大。關於這一點我能說的就這些了。還有其他重要的交易正在討論嗎？是的。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then, if I may, you folks have provided some color in terms of where you expect your revenues to be in 2012. And certainly as I think you've fairly been consistent. That it is going to be fairly back half weighted to the launch of the Model S. I was wondering if you could give us some color in terms of the mix of the Model S reservations that you have so far. In terms of running the numbers it does seem as though you're going to be delivering on the high-end versions first. I'd love to hear mix potential what you guys are factoring in for ASPs for your deliveries for the year or any color along those lines.

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，如果可以的話，你們已經提供了一些關於你們 2012 年收入預期的資訊。我認為你們的預期一直很一致。這將在很大程度上取決於 Model S 的推出。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹迄今為止 Model S 預訂的情況。從數字來看，看起來你們確實會先推出高端版本。我很想聽聽你們對今年交付的 ASP 或任何類似顏色的混合潛力的考慮。

Sure. I do expect that is going to be weighted towards the higher end versions of the Model S. Necessarily so for the Signature Series which basically comes with almost all the options. That is the first 1,000 vehicles. But then even beyond that we've had to deliver our Regular Series with the 300-mile range and then we drop to the 230-mile range and then the 160-mile range version doesn't get delivered. We don't start deliveries on those in 2012, early next year. That's certainly going to shift the weighting towards the higher end versions of the Model S. We'll have, I think a much better sense -- really quite a precise sense for that in the coming months as we're releasing the configurator and see exactly what options people take.

當然。我確實預計這將主要針對 Model S 的高端版本。對於基本上配備了幾乎所有選項的 Signature 系列來說，這必然如此。那是前1,000輛車。但除此之外，我們還必須交付續航里程為 300 英里的常規系列，然後續航里程降至 230 英里，而續航里程為 160 英里的版本則無法交付。我們不會在 2012 年（明年初）開始交付這些產品。這肯定會將重心轉向 Model S 的高端版本。我認為，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將發布配置器並準確了解人們會選擇哪些選項，屆時我們將有更好的認識 - 真正對此有相當精確的認識。

Okay, that's very helpful. And lastly, if I may, there's been a lot of questions around concerns on cash positioning, DoE loans among the industry at the moment. It seems from your prepared comments you feel comfortable with your current cash position and liquidity. I was wondering if you could give us a little bit of color in terms of how you view that progressing through the end of the year and into the beginning of next? Do you feel that with the trajectory of the Model S at this point do you feel comfortable in terms of how that's going to pan out for your cash burn situation currently?

好的，這非常有幫助。最後，如果可以的話，目前業界對現金部位、能源部貸款等問題有許多疑問。從您準備好的評論來看，您對當前的現金狀況和流動性感到滿意。我想知道您是否可以向我們稍微介紹一下您如何看待今年年底和明年年初的進展？您是否認為，按照 Model S 目前的發展軌跡，您是否對目前的現金消耗感到滿意？

I feel confident saying that Tesla does not need to ever raise another financing round. In terms of need. It is possible that we may choose, that we may want to do so, but importantly, we do not need to do so. At least by our projection. So yes, we are in a really strong cash position. Our relationship with the DoE is very good. So I feel pretty secure on those fronts.

我可以自信地說，特斯拉不需要再進行一輪融資。就需要而言。我們可能會選擇這樣做，我們可能想要這樣做，但重要的是，我們不需要這樣做。至少根據我們的預測是這樣。所以是的，我們的現金狀況確實非常強勁。我們與能源部的關係非常好。所以我在這方面感到很安全。

Great. Thank you very much for the incremental color.

偉大的。非常感謝您的增量顏色。

Jesse Pichel, Jefferies.

傑西‧皮切爾 (Jesse Pichel)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Congratulations on the launch last week. Thank you for hosting us. My question is from a branding and strategic perspective, how should we think about the Mercedes brand cannibalizing Tesla products and what keeps Tesla differentiated from your customers in this particular supply arrangement?

恭喜上週的發布。謝謝您的接待。我的問題是，從品牌和策略的角度來看，我們應該如何看待梅賽德斯品牌蠶食特斯拉產品，以及在這種特殊的供應安排中，特斯拉如何與你們的客戶保持差異化？

Yes, absolutely. You may have heard me say on a few occasions that the goal of Tesla is the catalyst for electric vehicles. So we want to do everything we can to advance the course of electric cars whether that's cars we make ourselves or cars that we help others make. And at the end of the day if our vehicle engineering isn't up to par but our powertrain is then obviously that would lend us to become more of a powertrain Company. Now, I think that we do good vehicle engineering and good powertrain engineering and that our parts will find a place in the market and that's as demonstrated by the customer interest, really. It's also important to bear in mind, the new car market is something like 80 million vehicles a year. For the Model S our core production that's 20,000 vehicles year.

是的，絕對是如此。您可能已經聽我說過幾次，特斯拉的目標是成為電動車的催化劑。因此，我們希望盡一切努力推動電動車的發展，無論是我們自己生產的汽車還是我們幫助他人生產的汽車。最終，如果我們的車輛工程無法達到標準，而我們的動力系統達到標準，那麼顯然這會使我們更像一家動力系統公司。現在，我認為我們的車輛工程和動力系統工程做得很好，我們的零件將在市場上佔有一席之地，這一點確實從客戶的興趣中得到了體現。還需要記住的是，新車市場每年的銷售量約為 8,000 萬輛。對於 Model S，我們的核心產量是每年 20,000 輛。

It is a very tiny portion of the market. We are certainly not taking business away from -- very much business away from partners and nor are they taking much business away from us. We are still at a small portion of the market. When comparing vehicles I think it is important to think about comparing premium sedans or premium SUVs rather than thinking of say the Model S and Model X as competing against at this point, the set of all electric vehicles which range from golf carts to the Nissan Leaf, to whatever the case may be. That's not really what people think of. When somebody is looking at applying a Model S they are considering that against, they like an Audi A6 or A8 or against a Porch Panamera or BMW 5 Series, 7 Series. That really tends to be the basis of comparison.

這只佔市場很小的一部分。我們當然不會從合作夥伴手中搶走太多業務，他們也不會從我們手中搶走太多業務。我們的市佔率仍很小。當比較車輛時，我認為重要的是考慮比較高檔轎車或高檔 SUV，而不是將 Model S 和 Model X 作為競爭對手，目前競爭對手包括從高爾夫球車到日產聆風等所有電動車。但事實並非如此。當有人考慮購買 Model S 時，他們會考慮與奧迪 A6 或 A8 或保時捷 Panamera 或寶馬 5 系、7 系進行比較。這確實往往是比較的基礎。

Peter Christiansen, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林的彼得克里斯蒂安森 (Peter Christiansen)。

Elon, I was wondering if you could just give us some color on the range, the guidance range, is that more of a function of Model S output or the timing of development services revenue and how does that tie into your gross margin outlook?

伊隆，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下續航里程，指導續航里程，這更多地取決於 Model S 的產量還是開發服務收入的時間，以及這與您的毛利率前景有何關係？

I will leave Deepak to answer most that. Certainly, the bulk of the 2012 revenue is Model S related. Deepak?

我會讓 Deepak 回答大部分問題。當然，2012 年的大部分收入都與 Model S 有關。迪帕克？

There are three elements to this, Steve. Obviously the biggest one is our projection of 5,000 Model Ss which drives it and then we have our own Roadster sales that we will have in Europe and in Asia. And beyond that we have the powertrain components business with Toyota. Then some bit of development services revenue with OEMs.

史蒂夫，這有三個要素。顯然，最大的動力是我們預計 5,000 輛 Model S 的銷量，這將推動我們的銷量成長，然後我們還將在歐洲和亞洲銷售我們的 Roadster 車型。除此之外，我們也與豐田有動力總成零件業務。然後是一些來自 OEM 的開發服務收入。

Great. Then, I was wondering if you can characterize the revenue opportunity of providing a full drivetrain solution versus some of your previous programs notwithstanding a different battery size?

偉大的。然後，我想知道您是否可以描述一下提供完整的動力傳動系統解決方案與您之前的一些項目相比，儘管電池尺寸不同，但帶來的收入機會是什麼？

Are you referring to the Daimler program? Clearly there's more revenue but in our minds it's the ability to provide to Daimler a much higher performing vehicle which includes the full integration of our systems. It allows us to provide a much more cost effective and higher performing EV to Daimler rather than just our battery pack which gets integrated into their system.

您指的是戴姆勒計畫嗎？顯然，這可以帶來更多的收入，但在我們看來，這是為了能夠向戴姆勒提供性能更高的汽車，其中包括我們系統的全面整合。它使我們能夠向戴姆勒提供更具成本效益和性能更高的電動車，而不僅僅是整合到他們的系統中的電池組。

Yes, exactly, by providing a full powertrain, it's a really seamless integration. It is a better customer experience and everything's really optimized to work well with the other elements. We demonstrated that for Daimler. They're pretty impressed and that's what led them to what we've got.

是的，確實如此，透過提供完整的動力系統，實現了真正無縫的整合。這是更好的客戶體驗，並且一切都經過了優化，可以與其他元素很好地配合。我們向戴姆勒證明了這一點。他們印象非常深刻，這就是他們找到我們所得到的東西的原因。

Thank you. And just one last one, Elon you just talked about the difference between needing additional financing or wanting one. One would assume that could imply accelerating the Gen 3 program. If that were the case, what would be your thought process? Would it be driven more by the momentum and the confidence that you are experiencing right now or possibly a response to some other competitive threats that you see from other OEMs?

謝謝。最後一個問題，埃隆，你剛剛談到了需要額外融資和想要額外融資之間的區別。人們可能認為這可能意味著加速第三代計畫。如果是這樣，您的想法會是怎麼樣？這是否更多地受到您當前所經歷的勢頭和信心的推動，還是可能是對您從其他 OEM 看到的一些競爭威脅的回應？

I'm not too worried about competitor threats because just the market is so big. What we are really focused on is not what any other company's doing but rather are we making the best possible product. Is there anything we can do to make a product that is going to amaze and delight customers more. That's, I think the right thing to focus on. We are going to do as the next significant vehicle -- the next major vehicle announced after the Model X, will be a Gen 3. I've made these comments to some of the media, but it's perhaps worth reaffirming that. Previously we were going to do a Next Generation Roadster after the Model X. But I've absolutely gained enough confidence that the technology will be scalable to higher volume but maybe a bit sooner and so we will be able to go to our third generation vehicle which will be a mass market vehicle with the price in the $30,000 range. If we were to accelerate that, it would be an argument for being -- doing a modest capital raise.

我並不太擔心競爭對手的威脅，因為市場太大了。我們真正關注的不是其他公司在做什麼，而是我們是否能製造出最好的產品。我們能做些什麼來製造出更讓顧客驚嘆和滿意的產品呢？我認為，這才是應該關注的事情。我們將要推出的下一款重要車型——繼 Model X 之後發布的下一款主要車型將是 Gen 3。我已經向一些媒體發表了這些評論，但也許值得重申這一點。在此之前，我們曾計劃在 Model X 之後推出下一代 Roadster。但我完全有信心，這項技術將能夠擴展到更大的產量，但可能要早一點，這樣我們就能推出第三代汽車，它將成為大眾市場的汽車，價格在 30,000 美元左右。如果我們要加速這一進程，那麼就可以進行適度的融資。

Dan Galves, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的丹加爾維斯（Dan Galves）。

Wondering if you could take us a little bit through kind of the near-term certification process or qualification process for the Model S. Just curious considering that you're still have some dies arriving in the next couple months. What are the key bottlenecks that could come up and qualification and what level of vehicles need to be used to qualify for driving on US roads in terms of whether it is a Beta or a release candidate vehicles or something full with full dies, production intent parts from the factory?

想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下 Model S 的近期認證流程或資格認定流程。考慮到您在接下來的幾個月內還會有一些模具到貨，我很好奇。可能出現的關鍵瓶頸是什麼？資格審查以及需要使用什麼級別的車輛才有資格在美國道路上行駛，無論是 Beta 版還是候選發布車輛，還是配備完整模具或工廠生產部件的車輛？

Yes, (inaudible) before the dies are shipped from Fuji who is our primary die supplier, they actually do stamp a number of body parts. So we actually do get production body parts before the die is shipped and are making cars with those production body parts now. That way when we received the dies then we put them into our stamping presses and all we are doing is just verifying that there's no meaningful difference between the stamping press at Fuji and our stamping press. But the dies themselves are already sorted out. As far as risks for production timing, yes, I can provide a little bit of color there, previously I said we expect to be 5-star on average, but maybe we'll be 4-star in some categories. It is looking increasingly like we will be 5-star in all categories. That is looking increasingly optimistic. There's a particular challenge with the fifth percentile female in the passenger, the very front passenger seat.

是的，（聽不清楚）在模具從我們的主要模具供應商富士發貨之前，他們實際上沖壓了許多車身部件。因此，我們實際上在模具發貨之前就獲得了生產的車身部件，並且現在正在用這些生產的車身部件製造汽車。這樣，當我們收到模具時，我們就把它們放入我們的沖壓機中，我們所做的只是驗證富士的沖壓機和我們的沖壓機之間沒有任何有意義的區別。但模具本身已經整理好了。至於生產時間的風險，是的，我可以提供一些信息，之前我說過我們希望平均達到 5 星，但也許在某些類別中我們會達到 4 星。我們越來越有可能在所有類別中都獲得五星級評價。這看起來越來越樂觀。對於坐在乘客最前排的第五個百分點的女性來說，這是一個特別的挑戰。

Just had a meeting this morning which looks like we will be able to achieve 5-star in that category which is great news. We are going to be doing some pretty innovative things, working with Takata who is our airbag supplier. So that's good. I think all our homologation timeline is on track in terms of the certification that Dan was asking. Since most of that certification is self-certification and it's on production intent constant part and as you mentioned the dies in Fuji are producing the parts which allow us to make the bodies and get that certification done. Jeff was suggesting that I should reaffirm that it's looking like we're 5-star in all categories. I don't want to say for sure, sure. But it is looking like that's quite likely. I'm sorry. Just in case there was any ambiguating. Sorry.

今天早上剛開了會，看起來我們將能夠在該類別中獲得五星評價，這是個好消息。我們將與我們的安全氣囊供應商高田合作，做一些非常創新的事情。這很好。我認為，就丹要求的認證而言，我們所有的認證時間表都在按計劃進行。由於大多數認證都是自我認證，並且是關於生產意圖的恆定部分，正如您所提到的，富士的模具正在生產使我們能夠製造機身並完成認證的零件。傑夫建議我應該重申我們在所有類別中都是五星級的。我不想肯定地說，肯定。但看起來這是很有可能的。對不起。以防萬一有任何歧義。對不起。

I think we've answered Dan's question.

我想我們已經回答了丹的問題。

Thanks for that, that's very clear. Then my second question has to do with your our R&D factory, if you will. With work probably winding down on the Model S coming up and ramping up on the Model X, will you have additional capacity in R&D? I guess my real question is, would you have the capacity with your current R&D staff to begin work on a Gen 3 vehicle, let's say by early 2013 after the Model S is fully launched?

謝謝，這非常清楚。那麼我的第二個問題就與你們的研發工廠有關。隨著 Model S 的研發工作逐漸結束以及 Model X 的研發工作加緊進行，你們是否會在研發方面增加額外的能力？我真正的問題是，您目前的研發人員是否有能力開始研發第三代汽車，例如在 2013 年初 Model S 全面上市之後？

Yes. I think so. That's the plan of action, in fact.

是的。我認為是這樣。事實上，這就是行動計畫。

Patrick Archambault, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的派崔克‧阿尚博（Patrick Archambault）。

I guess maybe my first question would be, as we think about -- I think reading through here it sounds like if you look at the R&D and CapEx plan for 2012 it is largely still Model S focused, unless I'm mistaken; right? I think the wording is that on the R&D front by the end there is some X spending that picks up. How do we think about what that might look like both on a CapEx basis next year? I'm presuming the R&D in the CapEx for that program is going to be really at its peak. How should we think about that? Whatever you're comfortable talking about maybe a year on year comparison or a comparison of how it is vis a vis what you spent on the S, presumably, obviously it is a lot less because it is on the same platform. So just hoping you could mentioned that.

我想也許我的第一個問題是，正如我們所想的——我認為讀到這裡，如果你看一下2012年的研發和資本支出計劃，它主要仍然集中在 Model S 上，除非我弄錯了；正確的？我認為措詞是，到最後在研發方面會有一些 X 支出增加。我們如何看待明年的資本支出狀況？我估計該項目的資本支出中的研發將達到頂峰。我們該如何思考這個問題？無論您願意談論什麼，也許是同比比較，或者是與您在 S 上花費的比較，想必，顯然它會少很多，因為它在同一平台上。所以只是希望你能提到這一點。

In fact, just to clarify firstly, the R&D spending on the S should reduce in the second half of the year it said in the letter, not just with the end of 2012. Because once we go into the production of the S, a lot of foreign manufacturing expenses, preproduction which are presently in R&D will move into cost of goods sold. So there should be a substantial reduction and we will be done with a lot of the spending we are presently incurring on building the prototypes. And testing them. So yes, there will be some ongoing R&D on the Ss. We look to bring out a European version, or fine tune some other things, but it will be at a lower level. Then we will see a pickup in the X spending at that point. The same goes for CapEx. A lot of our CapEx is in the first half, it is heavily weighted. We bid our suppliers both for tooling and equipment, the final payment's once we sign off on the tooling and the equipment.

事實上，首先要澄清的是，信中說，S 的研發支出應該在下半年減少，而不僅僅是在 2012 年底。因為一旦我們開始生產 S，許多目前用於研發的國外製造費用和預生產費用將轉入銷售成本。因此應該會有大幅減少，並且我們將完成目前用於建造原型的大量支出。並對其進行測試。所以是的，將會對 Ss 進行一些持續的研發。我們希望推出歐洲版本，或對其他一些東西進行微調，但水平會較低。然後我們就會看到 X 支出在那時回升。資本支出也是如此。我們的資本支出大多集中在上半年，佔比很大。我們向供應商提供工具和設備招標，一旦我們簽署了工具和設備，就會支付最終款項。

And if I think about just how those things trend into 2013, one would expect that perhaps you get a bigger spike in our R&D then you would maybe in CapEx because you can leverage some of the equipment. How do we think about that?

如果我思考這些事情在 2013 年的趨勢，那麼可以預見的是，我們的研發支出可能會比資本支出更大的成長，因為我們可以利用一些設備。我們該如何看待這個問題？

I think the leverage is there in both R&D and CapEx. I can't tell you specifically where the bigger leverage is. Our spending on the Model X is going to be very substantially lower overall than the S because we are leveraging every element of the manufacturing factory, the platform, the powertrain and there's quite a bit of commonization of parts in areas where you can't see divisible differences between the S and X.

我認為研發和資本支出都存在槓桿作用。我無法具體告訴你更大的槓桿在哪裡。我們在 Model X 上的投入總體上會比 Model S 低很多，因為我們利用了製造工廠、平台、動力系統等每一個元素，而且在 S 和 X 之間沒有明顯差異的領域，零件有相當多的通用性。

You're probably right. But as Deepak says it is maybe -- it's that they're saving in both but relatively speaking there's probably more savings in CapEx than there are in R&D.

你可能是對的。但正如 Deepak 所說，可能是他們在兩方面都節省了開支，但相對而言，資本支出的節省可能比研發方面的節省更多。

Okay. Taking a step back in terms of more of a product question. How are you thinking about sort of higher mileage vehicles in your product cadence? I think at the Detroit Auto Show you had put up a slide suggesting it would not be inconceivable to get your cost per kilowatt hour down to I want to say something like $200 if I'm remembering correctly. You've mentioned the Next Gen and perhaps after that maybe a new Roadster, but might there be an interim demand for a S or a X with even higher mileage capabilities just given the availability of cheaper batteries?

好的。就產品問題而言，退一步來說。您如何考慮在產品節奏中增加里程數較高的車輛？我記得在底特律車展上你曾放映過一張幻燈片，暗示將每千瓦時成本降至 200 美元左右並非不可想像，如果我沒記錯的話。您提到了下一代車型，或許之後還會有新款 Roadster，但是，考慮到更便宜的電池的出現，是否會出現對續航里程更高的 S 或 X 車型的臨時需求？

Yes. It's just like that phrase in Texas Hold'em, like you never know what the River Card is going to be. Well, you never know, could be.

是的。就像德州撲克里的那句話，你永遠不知道河牌會是什麼。嗯，你永遠不知道，有可能。

Okay. I guess last one, just -- I know you guys have reiterated this before, but just to remind myself, what kind of IP protections do you have in place when you do these programs with other OEMs. What kind of restrictions are there to prevent them from leveraging what they learned from working with you? And doing something independently?

好的。我想是最後一個，只是——我知道你們之前已經重申過這一點，但只是為了提醒自己，當你與其他 OEM 一起執行這些程序時，你們採取了什麼樣的 IP 保護措施。有哪些限制阻止他們利用與您合作時學到的知識？並且獨立做一些事情？

Our relationship with Toyota and Daimler where we have these programs has been such that they are very respectful of our IP. Certainly, we don't see any issues where this relationship is based on their desire to do things their own way and we think feel very comfortable. And as we grow that business, we will look at and if we get to very high volumes we'd look at licensing and other opportunities to manage that growth. But at this time we are not concerned about our IP in these relationships.

我們與豐田和戴姆勒在這些項目中保持著良好的關係，他們非常尊重我們的智慧財產權。當然，我們沒有發現任何問題，這種關係建立在他們想按照自己的方式做事的願望之上，我們認為這讓他們感覺很舒服。隨著業務的成長，我們會考慮，如果業務量達到很高的水平，我們也會考慮許可和其他機會來管理這種成長。但目前我們並不關心我們在這些關係中的智慧財產權。

I'm going to say, it's been a really great working with Toyota and Daimler. They are really stand up companies. There's been no indication at all of them wanting to abscond with IP and we've got pretty clear agreements lineating what IP belongs to which Company and we really had no disputes at all. There's quite a bit of mutual trust there. We do of course have patents. There are quite a few patents, but there's never really even been a bout of contention of any significance. And we've actually said we are open to licensing IP as well so it's not as though we necessarily have to be the ones manufacturing the powertrain if our partners want to do that then we can license them to the IP. At certain volume at 100,000 units or something that then can make a lot of sense. (inaudible) model in that sense. I should say, I was also being a little cheeky there with the River Card, but I think the real River Card is going to be the supercharger. When people really see how awesome that is. It is a pretty killer. We will unveil that with all the elements of the supercharger later this year.

我想說的是，與豐田和戴姆勒的合作非常愉快。他們確實是值得信賴的公司。沒有任何跡象顯示他們想要帶著智慧財產權潛逃，而且我們有非常明確的協議，劃定哪些智慧財產權屬於哪家公司，我們之間確實沒有任何爭議。雙方之間存在相當高的相互信任。我們當然有專利。有相當多的專利，但實際上從未發生過任何重大的爭論。事實上，我們已經表示，我們也對 IP 授權持開放態度，因此，我們不一定非得是動力系統的製造商，如果我們的合作夥伴願意這樣做，那麼我們可以將 IP 授權給他們。當產量達到 100,000 個單位或類似的水平時，這個數字就會變得非常有意義。 （聽不清楚）從這個意義上來說模型。我應該說，我在使用河牌時也有點厚臉皮，但我認為真正的河牌將會是增壓器。當人們真正看到那有多棒的時候。它真是一個殺手。我們將在今年稍後揭曉增壓器的所有元件。

That's the Stage 3 Charger, correct?

那是第三階段充電器，對嗎？

It's beyond Stage 3.

它已經超越了第 3 階段。

All right. Very good. Congratulations on all the benchmarks met so far and thanks for taking my question.

好的。非常好。恭喜您迄今為止達到的所有基準，並感謝您回答我的問題。

Himanshu Patel, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Himanshu Patel。

A few questions. Just, I wanted to clarify on the R&D. You did $208 million in full year 2011. You're sort of indicating about a $70 million annualized reduction from the sort of fall off on Model S and Fremont related cost, gets you to run rate of $138 million and then you're indicating some uptick from there related to the Model X in the second half. I guess could you justify simplify all of this and just give us a 2012 R&D number that you are thinking and then also any sort of dimensioning you can do on sort of just a run rate of that number prospectively either in absolute terms or as a percentage of sales?

幾個問題。我只是想澄清一下研發狀況。 2011 年全年的營業額為 2.08 億美元。您指出，由於 Model S 和弗里蒙特相關成本的下降，年化營業額減少了約 7,000 萬美元，從而使營業額達到了 1.38 億美元，然後您指出，下半年與 Model X 相關的營業額將有所上升。我想您能否簡化這一切，只給我們一個您認為的 2012 年研發數字，然後還能給出您可以對該數字的運行率進行的任何形式的估算，無論是絕對值還是銷售額的百分比？

I think Himanshu, we will see some increase in Q1 and Q2 because we are just adding a lot more people in our manufacturing facility. As we indicated in our letter, there's about $15 million to $20 million of manufacturing related expense that comes out in the second half once it moves to COG and then, when you add in a bit of Model X, I think we are specifically not giving a guidance, but giving you sufficient granularity and trend here that I'm sure you can work it out reasonably well in your model.

我認為 Himanshu，我們在第一季和第二季會看到一些成長，因為我們在製造工廠增加了更多的人手。正如我們在信中指出的那樣，一旦轉移到 COG，下半年就會產生大約 1500 萬到 2000 萬美元的製造相關費用，然後，當您添加一點 Model X 時，我認為我們特別不是在提供指導，而是在這裡為您提供足夠的粒度和趨勢，我相信您可以在您的模型中合理地解決它。

But Deepak, I just wanted to be clear, it sounds like there's two issues going on with the R&D cost. There's a reduction happening from just an accounting reallocation from R&D to COGS and then there's another -- it sounds like another reduction happening from just turning off, if you will of elevated cost related to the Model S launch and the Fremont factory. My understanding was the $15 million to $20 million per quarter reduction which was kind of the genesis of my $70 million annualized comment, is that related to the latter or the former?

但是 Deepak，我只是想說清楚，聽起來研發成本有兩個問題。僅僅是從研發到銷貨成本的會計重新分配就帶來了成本的減少，然後還有另外一個——這聽起來就像是剛剛關閉的與 Model S 發布和弗里蒙特工廠相關的高昂成本帶來的另一個減少。我的理解是，每季減少 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元，這也是我提出年度化 7000 萬美元評論的緣由，這與後者還是前者有關？

The former.

前者。

I see. How much of a -- those costs don't actually go away entirely, they just get reallocated from R&D into cost of goods sold?

我懂了。這些成本其實並沒有完全消失，只是從研發重新分配到銷售成本？

That's right.

這是正確的。

Okay. And is there a reduction, an overall cost reduction in the Corporation regardless of where it gets binned on the P&L just related to the fact that the Model S development is behind you. You indicated that the X is going to be considerably lower cost presuming a lot of cost related to getting Fremont up may have been hitting the R&D line as well. What is the reduction associated with that regardless of where it is classified on the P&L?

好的。並且，無論在損益表中屬於哪個部分，公司的整體成本是否都有所減少，這只與 Model S 開發已經結束這一事實有關。您指出，X 的成本將會大大降低，因為假設與弗里蒙特建設相關的大量成本可能也已經影響了研發線。無論它在損益表中歸類為哪裡，相關的減少是多少？

There's a reduction related to that, you're absolutely right. That will be partially offset by some spending in X that we talked about. There are some calendarization there which is we have a sense of it but it depends on how our spending goes by quarter so we aren't giving any specific numbers, but I think overall we will be in the $200 million or so range for R&D. I think when you run the models you come somewhere there.

與此相關的是有所減少，你完全正確。這將被我們談到的 X 中的一些支出部分抵消。這裡有一些日曆，我們對此有一定的了解，但這取決於我們按季度的支出情況，所以我們沒有給出任何具體的數字，但我認為總體而言我們的研發支出將在 2 億美元左右。我認為當你運行模型時你會到達那裡。

$200 million for this year?

今年2億美元？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Then the next question is, just the Roadster, what is the long-term plan for that? Will that be reincarnated at some stage? Or is this just going into the sunset for ever?

好的。那麼下一個問題是，對於 Roadster，您的長期計劃是什麼？那會在某個階段重生嗎？還是這只是永遠走向夕陽？

Our intent with the Roadster -- or the first version of Roadster was really to create a real collectors item. It is obviously the first viable electric car of the modern era. I think it is likely to be one of our first true collectors cars of the 21st century and we want it to be that -- That's why we capped the volume at 2,500. They're will be at some point a new generation Roadster. But my only comment, that's going to come after the third generation vehicle. That pushes it out probably about four years or so.

我們設計 Roadster 的目的——或者說 Roadster 的第一個版本，其實是想要打造一件真正的收藏品。這顯然是現代第一款可行的電動車。我認為它很可能成為我們 21 世紀第一批真正的收藏車之一，我們希望它成為那樣——這就是我們將產量限制在 2,500 輛的原因。從某種程度上來說，它們將成為新一代 Roadster。但我唯一的評論是，這將在第三代汽車之後出現。這大概會將其推遲四年左右。

Then Elon, just going back to one of the earlier questions. There's sort of this theoretical curve, if you will, on prospective cost per kilowatt hour of reduction that I'm sure you've got some historic data to sort of support. Then there's sort of the stuff you're working on right now that may just be in validation and there's -- it's a matter of time before you actually get there. Can you just dimension for us how much of that kind of $200 per kilowatt hour number is sort of in the bag from the engineering efforts that you can see and know that the organization has pretty good visibility on right now versus something that you haven't really figured out exactly how you are doing it but you sort of know over time that will happen?

那麼埃隆，我們回到之前的問題。如果你願意的話，可以畫出這種關於每千瓦時預期減排成本的理論曲線，我相信你有一些歷史數據可以支持這一點。然後，你現在正在處理的事情可能只是處於驗證階段，而你真正到達那裡只是時間問題。您能否為我們估算一下，透過工程努力，每度電 200 美元的目標成本在多大程度上是可以實現的？您知道，目前組織對此有很好的了解，而您還未真正弄清楚具體如何實現，但您知道隨著時間的推移，這會發生嗎？

I'm not sure we've actually ever said anything about explicitly or publicly about a $200 per kilowatt hour. I wouldn't put it, people just assume that we have. I do think that cost per kilowatt hour at the sale level will decline below that -- below $200. In the not-too-distant future. I don't -- then there's incremental cost for the pack. The cost of the seller was not the cost of the pack with all the pack safety systems are included. The cost per kilowatt hour of the battery pack is a high proprietary number, so that's something we'd guard pretty closely. In terms of where it is at any given point in time.

我不確定我們是否真的曾經明確或公開地談論過每千瓦時 200 美元的問題。我不會這麼說，人們只是假設我們有。我確實認為銷售水準上每千瓦時的電費將會下降到 200 美元以下。在不久的將來。我不知道——那麼這會導致包裝成本增加。賣方的費用不包括包含所有背包安全系統的背包費用。電池組每千瓦時的成本是一個很高的專有數字，因此我們會非常嚴格地保密。就任何給定時間點的位置而言。

Maybe just one last question. What was the thought process on opening up the reservation book for the X at this moment? Clearly there some demand for it, but are there any risk that it could be some cannibalization of S volumes?

也許只剩下最後一個問題了。此時打開 X 的預訂簿時的想法是怎麼樣的？顯然對此有一定需求，但是否存在蠶食 S 銷售的風險？

Yes. That's a good question actually, we are concerned that perhaps there would be some cannibalization of the S. In fact, the opposite occurred. We've seen higher Model S reservations, not lower. I think it is kind of like when people see that you've got more than one product in the lineup that actually is complementary. Kind of like you go into a store and it's better if the store sells pants and shirts and not just being the shirt store. So that's what we see -- people saw the press and pictures of the X and then some of them came to the website and said well, the X looks really cool but I prefer a sedan and bought the Model S. We've actually had customers who decided to buy both. That's really the objective data is that it is complimentary, not competitive.

是的。這實際上是一個好問題，我們擔心 S 可能會受到一定程度的蠶食。事實上，情況恰恰相反。我們看到 Model S 的預訂量上升，而不是下降。我認為這有點像當人們看到你的產品線中有一個以上實際上是互補的產品時。這有點像你走進一家商店，如果這家商店出售褲子和襯衫而不是僅僅是一家襯衫店就更好了。所以我們看到的情況是——人們看到了有關 Model X 的報導和圖片，然後一些人來到網站並說，Model X 看起來很酷，但我更喜歡轎車，所以我買了 Model S。實際上，我們也有一些客戶決定同時購買這兩款車。這確實是客觀數據，它是互補的，而不是競爭的。

(Operator Instructions) Andrea James, Dougherty & Company.

（操作員指示）Andrea James，Dougherty & Company。

So what needs to happen before you can offer test drive on the Model S to a customer? I guess what seems to be the position of those first 5,000 customers, will they all need to test drive or will some be happy to take delivery without that?

那麼在為客戶提供 Model S 試駕機會之前需要做些什麼呢？我猜想這前 5,000 名客戶的立場是，他們是否都需要試駕，或者有些人是否樂意在不試駕的情況下接受交付？

I think the assumption of customers is that they are just going to take delivery. There's no presumption of a test drive before delivery. There may be a few that want to do that, but my understanding is in talking to those customers really is that they just want the car as soon as possible. No, in terms of test drives we have to wait until the car is fully homologated. So that's really essentially going to be at the point that we are delivering the first production cars. That's the middle of this year is when people will be able to take a test drive.

我認為客戶的假設是他們只是去接收貨物。交貨前不進行試駕。可能有少數人想這樣做，但我的理解是，與這些客戶交談時，他們實際上只是想盡快拿到車。不，就試駕而言，我們必須等到汽車完全獲得認證。所以這實際上就是我們交付第一批量產汽車的時刻。今年年中人們將可以進行試駕。

Over time we'll have a lot more cars out there, Andrea. So clearly any customer who wants to have a test drive before (inaudible) that should not be a problem at all.

隨著時間的推移，我們會有更多的汽車，安德里亞。因此顯然，任何想要在（聽不清楚）之前進行試駕的客戶都不應該有問題。

Absolutely. Given the fact that there's excess demand for the Model S, even if somebody doesn't like the Model S, they are probably -- should probably take delivery and then sell it because I expect that the cars will sell for more than the nominal price.

絕對地。考慮到對 Model S 的需求過剩，即使有人不喜歡 Model S，他們也應該接收然後出售，因為我預計這些汽車的價格將高於名義價格。

Okay. So it sounds like from your view given the choice of delivering a car to a customer or setting that car aside for test drives you would just do the delivery?

好的。所以從您的角度來看，如果讓客戶選擇將汽車交付給客戶還是將汽車留作試駕，您會選擇交付嗎？

Yes, we're going to do a little bit of both, so there will be cars that are -- marketing cars that are delivered to the stores for test drives. That's going to be having a parallel with delivery to customers.

是的，我們會兩者兼顧，所以我們會把行銷汽車送到商店供人試駕。這與向客戶交付貨物是並行的。

Okay. Then moving on to just Toyota. How has your communication gone with them as far as them saying this is what we need and when. Do they give you hard targets or moving targets? And also you said you're going to do a shipment in Q2, is that in line with the Rev Rec on that contract? Thank you.

好的。接下來我們再來談談豐田。您與他們的溝通進度如何？他們告訴我們這是我們需要的，什麼時候需要。他們給你的是硬目標還是移動目標？而且您還說您將在第二季度發貨，這是否與合約中的 Rev Rec 一致？謝謝。

Toyota, as you can imagine, has very established processes and systems so and they have suppliers globally. They have a fairly stable production plan which they share with us in advance. So we have full clarity and visibility of what they need. Clearly the components that we will supply to them in Q2, the revenue on those will be recognized when we delivered those components like any other supplier.

你可以想像，豐田擁有非常完善的流程和系統，並且在全球擁有供應商。他們有一個相當穩定的生產計劃，並提前與我們分享。因此，我們完全清楚他們的需求。顯然，我們將在第二季度向他們供應的零件，當我們像任何其他供應商一樣交付這些零件時，這些零件的收入將得到確認。

Okay. You think it will be lumpy there then?

好的。您認為那裡會凹凸不平嗎？

No, I don't think so. I think there's going to be a ramp-up as we pick up the production rate but it won't be lumpy.

不，我不這麼認為。我認為，隨著生產率的提高，產量將會增加，但不會出現波動。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Just to follow up on the test drive question, would the magazines first chance to drive the Model S also coincide with deliveries to customers in the middle of the year or would there be an opportunity before?

只是想跟進試駕的問題，雜誌首次駕駛 Model S 的機會是否也與年中向客戶交付的時間相吻合，或者在此之前就有機會？

It would probably coincide, yes. We definitely don't want to deliver -- really we want the car to be as close to perfect as possible before we get it to any automotive journalists to just drive.

是的，它可能會重疊。我們絕對不想交付——我們真的希望汽車在交給汽車記者試駕之前盡可能接近完美。

Understood. Deepak, in 2011, it looks like your cash flow was just under a negative $300 million or $290 million, can you at this point confirm given the assumption of 5,000 units deliveries of the Model S that cash earned in 2012 should be significantly less than this amount, well still negative but less negative?

明白了。 Deepak，2011 年，看起來貴公司的現金流接近負 3 億美元或 2.9 億美元，您能否確認，在 Model S 交付量為 5,000 輛的假設下，2012 年賺取的現金應該會大大低於這個數額，還是為負數，但是負數已經減少了？

Yes, it will be. Our cash flow from operations here clearly we have reservations in play as well as working capital needs and in our case as we ramp up, we can have some benefits in working capital. Given the difference in payments to our suppliers versus payments that we collect from our customers. So yes, it will be less than that.

是的，將會如此。我們的經營活動產生的現金流顯然存在保留，並且有營運資本需求，就我們的情況而言，隨著我們的擴張，我們可以在營運資本方面獲得一些好處。考慮到我們向供應商支付的款項與我們從客戶收取的款項之間的差異。是的，會比這個少。

Great. Just a follow-on, the CapEx outlook, the $200 million to $220 million, any rough split of how much of that is related to final spending on the Model S versus early spending on the Model X or the other buckets which we know include Retail or development work or early Gen 3? Any idea of a rough split?

偉大的。接下來是資本支出前景，2 億至 2.2 億美元，其中有多少與 Model S 的最終支出、Model X 的早期支出或其他支出（我們知道包括零售或開發工作或早期 Gen 3）有關？有什麼粗略的分割方法嗎？

As you clearly said we have the bucket of spending on putting new stores out there, service centers, we are also going to do some supercharging installation as Elon mentioned and then spending on the X. It's going to be -- the majority is I would say S and leave it at that. I think that gives you enough granularity.

正如您所說，我們在開設新店、新服務中心方面投入了大量資金，我們還將像 Elon 提到的那樣安裝一些超級充電設施，然後在 X 上投入資金。大部分資金將是 S，就這樣。我認為這已經給你提供了足夠的粒度。

I appreciate that. Just finally on the Model X reservations, it'd be nice if we could continue that daily amount, but looking at that split, I know it is early data, but how does the reservation amount compare to the roughly $11,000 per reservation that you're getting on average for the Model S?

我很感激。最後，關於 Model X 的預訂，如果我們能夠保持每天的預訂金額就太好了，但是從這個比例來看，我知道這是早期數據，但是與 Model S 平均每次預訂約 11,000 美元相比，預訂金額如何？

I guess you may be getting to that average because we collect $40,000 on the Signature Series and $5,000 on general production. We have a combination of Signature and general production reservations on the X. I don't have that number offhand what that breakdown is, but we're getting substantial Signature reservations, no doubt about that.

我想你可能會達到這個平均值，因為我們在簽名系列上收集了 40,000 美元，在一般生產上收集了 5,000 美元。我們對 X 既有 Signature 預訂，也有一般生產預訂。我不清楚具體數字，但毫無疑問，我們獲得了大量 Signature 預訂。

For the X.

對於 X。

For the X, yes.

對於 X，是的。

Yes. Absolutely.

是的。絕對地。

I presume with the order of magnitude difference on the upfront reservation per for Signature X would be comparable to a Signature S versus the higher battery non Signature S?

我推測 Signature X 的預付預訂金額的數量級差異與 Signature S 相比與電池容量更高的非 Signature S 相比如何？

For the model that's regular series which is the $5,000 reservation, then there's Signature Series which is $40,000, it's the same for the Model X. But the $5,000 number is in (inaudible) the configuration of the Model S.

對於常規系列的車型，預訂價為 5,000 美元，然後是 Signature 系列，預訂價格為 40,000 美元，Model X 也是如此。但 5,000 美元這個數字是在（聽不清楚）Model S 的配置中。

Ben Kallo, Robert W Baird.

本·卡洛、羅伯特·W·貝爾德。

A lot of attention is being paid on to the number of dies that you have in Fremont. Is it plausible that you don't have all dies there at the manufacturing plant and you're still stamping some parts with your partner yet still delivering vehicles? I know that's not your best case scenario, but is that an option you would have to meet your delivery timeline?

人們對弗里蒙特的模具數量給予了極大關注。你們的製造廠裡沒有所有的模具，但你們仍在與合作夥伴沖壓一些零件，但仍在交付車輛，這種可能性是否合理？我知道這不是最好的情況，但這是您必須滿足交貨期限的一種選擇嗎？

I think we have enough gap in between that we don't see that as a possibility. We expect just about all the dies if not all of them to be here by early Q2 which gives us enough time to fine tune them and use them for the production cars.

我認為我們之間有足夠的差距，我們認為這是不可能的。我們預計，幾乎所有模具（如果不是全部的話）都將在第二季度初到達，這將為我們提供足夠的時間對它們進行微調並將其用於量產汽車。

Okay. But would that be a possibility if something came up where you couldn't get the dies?

好的。但如果出現無法取得模具的情況，這種情況有可能發生嗎？

There's always a possibility, yes. We could always have a lot of parts produced at Fuji and have them shipped when the dies is coming but clearly that's not part of the plan.

是的，總是存在這種可能性的。我們總是可以在富士生產大量零件，並在模具到達時發貨，但顯然這不是計劃的一部分。

Okay. Could you talk about how you get to the 10,000 to 15,000 delivery number outlook for 2014?

好的。您能談談您如何實現 2014 年交付數量 10,000 至 15,000 的預期嗎？

For the Model X?

適用於 Model X 嗎？

Yes, for the Model X.

是的，對於 Model X 來說。

We are just scaling that at roughly 0.5 to 0.75 of Model S. And it could be higher than that. I think that based on the demand we're seen thus far, it probably will be higher than that. But we don't know -- I think it probably will be higher than that. (inaudible) speculate as to an exact number but --

我們只是將其縮放到 Model S 的大約 0.5 到 0.75。實際上可能會更高。我認為，根據我們目前看到的需求，這個數字可能會更高。但我們不知道——我認為它可能會更高。 （聽不清楚）推測一下確切的數字，但是——

We eventually put it as a good conservative projection.

我們最終將其作為一個很好的保守預測。

I would say a conservative projection, yes.

我認為這是一個保守的預測，是的。

Okay, great. Actually, finally, could you just talk about your 5-star rating and the timing around that. We don't need that 5-star rating before the cars can actually be sold, is that correct? Should I understand it like that? It could come after you start marketing your cars?

好的，太好了。實際上，最後，您能否談談您的 5 星評級以及時間表？我們不需要 5 星評級就可以出售汽車，對嗎？我該這麼理解嗎？這可能是在您開始行銷汽車之後出現的嗎？

Yes. You do everything that's necessary to achieve the cars 5-star rating and then it is officially awarded at some point after start of production. Yes, but you pretty much know in advance what it's going to be. Yes.

是的。您盡一切努力獲得汽車的 5 星評級，然後在開始生產後的某個時間點正式授予該評級。是的，但你幾乎事先就知道會發生什麼事。是的。

And to your point, your right. We don't have to have a 5-star rating to get the car in production, it's our goal to get there. There's no regulatory requirement.

就你的觀點而言，你是對的。我們不需要獲得五星評級才能投產車，獲得五星評級是我們的目標。沒有監管要求。

Yes. No, no absolutely. Really our goal with the Model S was to create the safest car on the road. To be the safe car on the road you really -- you obviously want to inspire to a 5-star in every category and actually there isn't a 6-star but we aim for a virtual 6-star. If you achieve that, the highest possible safety rating.

是的。不，絕對不是。我們設計 Model S 的真正目標是打造道路上最安全的汽車。為了成為道路上安全的汽車，您確實——您顯然希望在每個類別中都獲得 5 星評價，而實際上並沒有 6 星，但我們的目標是虛擬 6 星。如果實現了這一點，則可獲得最高的安全評級。

Carter Driscoll, Capstone.

卡特·德里斯科爾，Capstone。

First question centers around potential financing options. Obviously maybe not quite as relevant for the S or the X but maybe you could talk about what you're attempting to line up for more of the mass-market Gen 3 vehicle?

第一個問題圍繞著潛在的融資選擇。顯然，這可能與 S 或 X 不太相關，但也許您可以談談您嘗試為大眾市場第三代汽車做哪些準備？

Sure. We would expect to have the full range of leasing and financing options that people are used to seeing for cars. And probably working with a number of large financial institutions to make that happen. We've had some very promising talks. But yes, we definitely want to make sure that the cars are as affordable as possible. I think there's an argument actually that the appeal of electric cars on the leasing side is going to be greater than on the purchase side. I certainly see that in solar. It is much more appealing to have a solar system on a lease basis because people can then compare that correctly with the cost that they are paying from the utility. Since the cost of electricity is so much less than the cost of gasoline it is really we're talking about an order of magnitude difference. By leasing the car and comparing and adding that cost of electricity versus comparing the lease cost of a gasoline car and the price of gasoline which is likely to be increasingly expensive, the value proposition to customers on purely an economic level is going to be that much more compelling.

當然。我們希望提供人們習慣的全方位汽車租賃和融資選擇。並且可能與一些大型金融機構合作來實現這一目標。我們進行了一些非常有希望的會談。但是是的，我們確實想確保汽車的價格盡可能便宜。我認為實際上有一種觀點認為，電動車在租賃方面的吸引力大於在購買方面的吸引力。我確實在太陽能中看到了這一點。以租賃的方式安裝太陽能係統更有吸引力，因為人們可以將其與他們從公用事業公司支付的成本進行正確的比較。由於電力成本遠低於汽油成本，因此我們實際上談論的是數量級的差異。透過租賃汽車並比較和添加電力成本，而不是比較汽油汽車的租賃成本和可能越來越昂貴的汽油價格，純粹從經濟層面上對客戶的價值主張將更具吸引力。

That's helpful. That's what I was driving at is in terms of the volatility of the residual value in using a much more constant kilowatt per hour price nationally then certainly differences regionally in gasoline prices. My next question is maybe you could -- in your own opinion, Elon or Deepak, talk about the different Model options you expect people to take in the different Models or maybe even compare and contrast the Model S versus the X, so we can drill down into what you think an ASP might look like, a final ASP might look like not necessarily just the base price, at least your best guess?

這很有幫助。我要說的是，在全國範圍內使用更為恆定的每小時千瓦時價格時，殘餘價值的波動性會比地區間汽油價格的差異更大。我的下一個問題是，Elon 或 Deepak，您是否可以就您自己的觀點談談您期望人們在不同車型中採用的不同車型選項，或者甚至可以比較和對比 Model S 和 X，這樣我們就可以深入了解您認為的 ASP 可能是什麼樣子，最終的 ASP 可能看起來不一定只是基本價格，至少您是這樣猜測的？

Carter, I think Elon sort of answered there at a high level in one of the earlier questions that initially we will have the Signature Series which is 300-miles or the 85 kilowatt battery pack and then we will have the base 85 kilowatt battery pack. In addition, we're going to offer the performance version which we expect to have a very fairly significant debut given the specs on that. So between that and the options, we wouldn't be surprised if there's on average a $10,000 to $15,000 pick up above the base price which is fairly normal in the premium (inaudible). And then in 2012 it becomes a mix of sales, 2013 rather becomes a mix of sales in Asia and Europe, their pricing structures are different in the content, what's standard versus optional is different. So as we sort that out, for 2013, I know we'll provide more granularity. But I think 2012 is fairly clear. Given our plans of launching the different series over time.

卡特，我認為伊隆在之前的問題中已經回答得很清楚了，最初我們將推出續航里程為 300 英里的 Signature Series 或 85 千瓦電池組，然後我們將推出基礎的 85 千瓦電池組。此外，我們還將提供性能版本，考慮到其規格，我們預計該版本將有一個非常顯著的亮相。因此，考慮到這些因素和選擇項，如果平均價格比基本價格高出 10,000 至 15,000 美元，我們不會感到驚訝，這在溢價中是相當正常的（聽不清楚）。然後在2012年它變成了混合銷售，2013年則變成了亞洲和歐洲的混合銷售，它們的定價結構在內容上有所不同，標準和可選的也不同。因此，當我們理清這個問題時，我知道對於 2013 年，我們將提供更詳細的資訊。但我認為 2012 年已經相當明朗。考慮到我們計劃隨著時間的推移推出不同的系列。

Okay, just keeping an eye on the time here, we probably have time for questions from maybe one more analyst. So operator, just one more, please.

好的，只是專注於這裡的時間，我們可能還有時間回答一位分析師的問題。接線員，請再說一句。

Michael Lew, Needham.

麥可劉，尼德姆。

You had mentioned other potential supply agreements and partnerships in the pipeline and I realize Daimler and Toyota are solid partners. But could you give us a sense of how many other ongoing powertrain development discussions are going on with other automakers and are they for more mainstream vehicles or luxury type of offerings?

您曾提到正在籌備的其他潛在供應協議和合作夥伴關係，我知道戴姆勒和豐田是可靠的合作夥伴。但您能否告訴我們，有多少其他汽車製造商正在就動力系統開發進行討論，以及這些討論是針對更主流的車型還是豪華車型？

I'm sorry, but I can't give you any color on that.

很抱歉，我無法對此提供任何解釋。

Okay. Wanted to follow-up on your comments regarding a Gen 3 mainstream model, would this be an EV targeted more at the emerging markets like I would say, China or broader-based type of offering?

好的。想跟進您對第三代主流車型的評論，這是一款更針對新興市場的電動車，例如中國，還是一種更廣泛的產品類型？

It would be targeted, I think worldwide.

我認為它將成為全球性的攻擊目標。

Worldwide?

全世界？

Certainly inclusive of China. I wouldn't say virtually every country in the world, but certainly China. It is pretty to hard to ignore China as a market these days. I think -- in fact, we expect to be selling the Model S and the Model X in China. We think that there could be a lot of appeal interestingly for the Model X in China.

當然也包括中國。我不會說世界上幾乎所有國家，但肯定是中國。如今，很難忽視中國這個市場。我認為——事實上，我們希望在中國銷售 Model S 和 Model X。我們認為 Model X 在中國可能會具有很大的吸引力。

Got it. Okay. Also regarding your prior comments on sales cost reductions from the current kilowatt hour pricing. How much would it be, let's say scale driven versus immaterial change driven? What would be the split on that?

知道了。好的。另外，關於您之前關於當前千瓦時定價銷售成本降低的評論。假設說規模驅動與非物質變化驅動，那麼這個比例會是多少？那這個分法是怎麼分的呢？

That's a good question. Even without any material changes done efficiently at scale, you can get a current chemistry below $200 a kilowatt hour. I think that you will see material changes over time that amplify that opportunity.

這是個好問題。即使沒有大規模有效地進行任何材料改變，也可以獲得每千瓦時低於 200 美元的當前化學成本。我認為，隨著時間的推移，你會看到實質的變化，從而擴大這個機會。

How long would it take to let's say qualify and enhance non-material driven change, if you wanted to, let's say implement it on the Model S, or an existing model at that time?

如果你想在 Model S 或當時的現有模型上實現非物質驅動的變革，那麼需要多長時間才能確定並增強它？

I think you kind of see most of the material changes coming because you have to implement them at large scale. So it's not as though you could have something that's just working in a lab and then very rapidly bring that to full scale production. Plus you have to assess things like calendar life degradation and particularly as well as cycle life degradation. So you tend to see sale chemistry changes coming from a few years away. We've got a roadmap of changes that look pretty interesting and of course the steady improvement, year-over-year. But that's not to say if we were to go and implement a new chemistry every year. I think we'd probably look to implement new chemistries probably every three years or something like that.

我認為你會看到大多數實質變化即將發生，因為你必須大規模地實施它們。因此，這並不意味著你只需在實驗室中開發出某種產品，然後就能迅速將其投入全面生產。另外，您還必須評估日曆壽命退化以及循環壽命退化等因素。因此，您往往會看到幾年後銷售化學發生變化。我們有一個看起來非常有趣的變革路線圖，當然，它還在逐年穩定地改進。但這並不是說我們每年都要實施一種新的化學製程。我認為我們可能每三年左右就會實施一次新的化學反應。

Thank you. I'd like to turn the call back to our presenters for any concluding remarks.

謝謝。我想將電話轉回給我們的演講者，請他們做最後總結。

Thank you everyone for joining us. We look forward to seeing many of you over the coming weeks as we attend conferences. In particular we will be at the Jefferies Growth conference next week in New York City. And the week after that we will be at the Morgan Stanley Technology Media and Telecom conference in San Francisco. So we look forward to seeing many of you at those events. Thank you, goodbye.

感謝大家的參與。我們期待在接下來的幾週參加會議時見到你們。特別是我們將於下週參加在紐約舉行的 Jefferies Growth 會議。下週我們將參加在舊金山舉行的摩根士丹利科技媒體和電信會議。因此，我們期待在這些活動中見到你們。謝謝，再見。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation on today's call. This does conclude the program and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的電話會議。這確實結束了程序並且您現在可以斷開連接。