旅行家集團 (TRV) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

早安，女士們，先生們。

Welcome to the second-quarter results teleconference for Travelers.

歡迎參加旅客第二季業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on July 19, 2024.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議錄音時間為 2024 年 7 月 19 日。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁阿貝·戈爾茨坦女士主持。

Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

戈德斯坦女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our second-quarter 2024 results.

早安，歡迎參加 Travelers 對我們 2024 年第二季業績的討論。

We released our press release, financial supplement, and webcast presentation earlier this morning.

今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務補充品和網路廣播簡報。

All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

所有這些資料都可以在我們的 Travelers.com 網站的「投資者」部分找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our three segment presidents, Greg Toczydlowski of business insurance; Jeff Klenk of bond & specialty insurance; and Michael Klein of personal insurance.

今天發言的是董事長兼執行長 Alan Schnitzer；丹‧弗雷，財務長；以及我們的三個部門總裁，商業保險部門的 Greg Toczydlowski；債券和專業保險的 Jeff Klenk；和個人保險的邁克爾克萊因。

They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment.

他們將討論我們業務的財務表現和當前的市場環境。

They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take your questions.

他們將在閱讀準備好的評論時參考網路廣播演示，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation.

在我將電話轉給艾倫之前，我想提請您注意網路廣播簡報末尾的解釋性說明。

Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements.

我們今天的演示包括前瞻性陳述。

The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance.

該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，並非對未來業績的保證。

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors.

由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC.

這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 報告中的前瞻性陳述中進行了描述。

We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，在我們的評論或對問題的答覆中，我們可能會提到一些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement, and other materials available in the Investors section on our website.

調節表包含在我們最近的收益新聞稿、財務補充資料以及我們網站投資者部分提供的其他資料中。

And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Alan.

現在，我想把電話轉給艾倫。

Thank you, Abbe.

謝謝你，阿貝。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

We are pleased to have generated a strong bottom-line result in the quarter that included a record number of severe convective storms across the United States: excellent underlying results, favorable net prior year reserve development, and higher net investment income contributed to core income of $585 million or $2.51 per diluted share.

我們很高興在本季度取得了強勁的淨利潤，其中包括美國各地創紀錄數量的強對流風暴：出色的基本業績、有利的上年淨儲備開發以及為核心收入做出貢獻的更高的淨投資收入5.85 億美元或稀釋後每股 2.51 美元。

Underlying underwriting income of $1.2 billion pretax was up 55% over the prior year quarter.

稅前基礎核保收入為 12 億美元，比去年同期成長 55%。

This year's exceptional result was driven by record net earned premium of $10.2 billion and a consolidated underlying combined ratio that improved 3.4 points to an excellent 87.7%.

今年的出色業績得益於創紀錄的 102 億美元淨賺保費以及提高 3.4 個百分點至 87.7% 的綜合基礎綜合成本率。

Net earned premiums were higher in all three of our business segments.

我們所有三個業務部門的淨賺保費均較高。

The underlying combined ratio in our business insurance segment was an excellent 89.2%.

我們商業保險部門的基礎綜合成本率為 89.2%，非常出色。

And the underlying combined ratio in our bond & specialty business improved 1.7 points to a very strong 86.1%.

我們的債券和專業業務的基礎綜合成本率提高了 1.7 個百分點，達到非常強勁的 86.1%。

Looking at our two commercial segments together, the aggregate BI, BSI underlying combined ratio was an outstanding 88.7% for the quarter.

將我們的兩個商業部門放在一起來看，本季 BI、BSI 基礎綜合比率總計高達 88.7%。

The underlying combined ratio in personal insurance improved by nearly eight points to a terrific 86.3%.

個人保險的基本綜合成本率提高了近八個百分點，達到驚人的 86.3%。

Turning to the top line, we grew net written premiums by 8% to $11.1 billion in the quarter.

說到營收，本季我們的淨承保保費成長了 8%，達到 111 億美元。

Outstanding execution by our colleagues in the field across all three segments contributed to our top line and success.

我們三個領域的同事在該領域的出色執行力為我們的營收和成功做出了貢獻。

We are very pleased to report terrific production results in our commercial segments where, as you've heard, margins are attractive.

我們非常高興地報告我們的商業領域取得了出色的生產成果，正如您所聽到的，這些領域的利潤率很有吸引力。

In business insurance, we grew net written premiums by 7% to more than $5.5 billion.

在商業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增加了 7%，達到超過 55 億美元。

Renewal premium change remained very strong at 10.1%, while retention remained high at 85%.

續保費變化仍然非常強勁，達到 10.1%，而保留率仍然很高，達到 85%。

The combination of strong pricing and retention reflects deliberate execution on our part and a marketplace that continues to be generally disciplined.

強勁的定價和保留率的結合反映了我們的刻意執行和繼續普遍遵守紀律的市場。

New business increased 9% to a record $732 million, a reflection of the fact that our customers and distribution partners value the products and services that we offer and the experiences that we provide.

新業務成長 9%，達到創紀錄的 7.32 億美元，這反映出我們的客戶和分銷合作夥伴重視我們提供的產品和服務以及我們提供的體驗。

In bond & specialty insurance, we grew net written premiums by 8% to more than $1 billion, driven by very strong retention of 90% in our high-quality management liability business and excellent production in our market-leading surety business, where we grew net written premiums by 11%.

在債券和專業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增長了8%，達到超過10 億美元，這得益於我們高品質管理責任業務90% 的強勁保留率以及我們市場領先的擔保業務的出色生產，我們在該業務中取得了成長淨承保保費增加 11%。

At year end 2023, we shared that across our two commercial segments, our E&S writing should reach $2.5 billion for the year, double the level from 2021.

到 2023 年底，我們表示，在我們的兩個商業領域，我們的 E&S 寫作今年應達到 25 億美元，是 2021 年水準的兩倍。

To date, we've grown E&S net written premiums by 16%.

迄今為止，我們的 E&S 淨承保保費已增加 16%。

Margins continue to be quite attractive.

利潤率仍然相當有吸引力。

In personal insurance, continued strong pricing grew 9% growth in net written premiums with growth of 10% in auto and 8% in home.

在個人保險方面，持續強勁的定價使淨承保保費增長了 9%，其中汽車保險增長了 10%，家庭保險增長了 8%。

You'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff, and Michael about our segment results.

您很快就會從 Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 那裡聽到更多關於我們的細分結果的資訊。

Turning to investments, our high-quality investment portfolio continued to perform well, generating after-tax net investment income of $727 million, driven by strong and reliable terms from our growing fixed income portfolio and higher returns from our non-fixed income portfolio.

在投資方面，我們的優質投資組合繼續表現良好，在我們不斷增長的固定收益投資組合強大而可靠的條款以及非固定收益投資組合更高回報的推動下，產生了7.27 億美元的稅後淨投資收入。

Our investment results benefit from the strong cash flow we've generated over a sustained period.

我們的投資績效受益於我們持續產生的強勁現金流。

This quarter marks the seventh consecutive quarter in which we've generated more than $1 billion in operating cash flow.

本季是我們連續第七個季度產生超過 10 億美元的營運現金流。

This is the measure that we are the industry talk a lot about, but it's important.

這是我們業界經常談論的措施，但它很重要。

Cash flows are what enables us to make strategic investments in our business, return excess capital to shareholders, and grow our investment portfolio.

現金流使我們能夠對業務進行策略性投資、向股東返還多餘資本並擴大我們的投資組合。

Since 2016, we've invested $11 billion in important technology initiatives, returned more than $20 billion of excess capital to our shareholders, and grown our investment portfolio by more than $25 billion.

自 2016 年以來，我們已在重要技術計劃上投資了 110 億美元，向股東返還了超過 200 億美元的超額資本，並使我們的投資組合增長了超過 250 億美元。

It's a virtuous cycle as well-conceived and executed strategic initiatives, and effective capital management strategy, and thoughtful investment strategy contribute to attractive returns and growth in adjusted book value per share.

這是一個良性循環，精心構思和執行的策略性舉措、有效的資本管理策略和深思熟慮的投資策略有助於實現有吸引力的回報和調整後每股帳面價值的成長。

Strong underwriting is the flywheel that sets it all in motion.

強大的承保是推動一切的飛輪。

Thanks to exceptional franchise value and excellent marketplace execution, we've profitably growing our premium base from about $25 billion in 2016 to more than $40 billion today.

憑藉卓越的特許經營價值和卓越的市場執行力，我們的溢價基礎從 2016 年的約 250 億美元增至如今的超過 400 億美元。

Our growth over this period of time has been largely organic, selling products in which we have deep expertise, to distribution partners with whom we have long-standing relationships, and in geographies where we have a thorough understanding of the regulatory environment and other market dynamics.

我們在這段時間內的成長很大程度上是有機的，向與我們有長期關係的分銷合作夥伴以及我們對監管環境和其他市場動態有透徹了解的地區銷售我們擁有深厚專業知識的產品。

In other words, our competitive advantages have enabled us to effectively execute a relatively low-risk growth strategy.

換句話說，我們的競爭優勢使我們能夠有效地執行相對低風險的成長策略。

The success of that strategy is evidenced by a return on equity that has averaged about 900 basis points over the 10-year treasury over that period and industry-low volatility.

此策略的成功體現在，該期間 10 年期公債的股本回報率平均約為 900 個基點，且波動性處於行業最低水準。

But all this boils down is steady, consistent growth and adjusted book value per share after making important investments in our business and returning substantial excess capital to shareholders.

但歸根結底，是在對我們的業務進行重要投資並向股東返還大量超額資本後，穩定、持續的成長和調整後的每股帳面價值。

And as a leader in the US P&C market with broad product capability, demonstrated success with innovation, and plenty of market share headroom, we're confident there's a lot more opportunity in front of us.

作為美國財產和意外傷害市場的領導者，擁有廣泛的產品能力、在創新方面取得的成功以及充足的市場份額空間，我們相信我們面前有更多的機會。

To sum it up, we continue to be very confident in the outlook for our business.

總而言之，我們對我們的業務前景仍然充滿信心。

Our results for the first half of the year include strong premium growth and excellent bottom-line result, record operating cash flow, and steadily rising investment returns in our growing fixed income portfolio.

我們上半年的業績包括強勁的保費成長和出色的淨利潤、創紀錄的營運現金流以及不斷增長的固定收益投資組合的投資回報穩步上升。

With a strong and diversified business and balance sheet, we delivered 13.6% core return on equity over the last 12 months despite substantial industry-wide catastrophe losses.

憑藉強大且多元化的業務和資產負債表，儘管全行業遭受了巨額災難性損失，但我們在過去 12 個月內實現了 13.6% 的核心股本回報率。

With this momentum, we remain well-positioned for success this year and beyond.

憑藉這一勢頭，我們仍處於有利位置，能夠在今年及以後取得成功。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Alan.

謝謝你，艾倫。

We're pleased to have generated record levels of earned premium this quarter and an underlying combined ratio of 87.7%, a 340 basis point (sic – see press release, "3.4") improvement from last year's strong result in the third consecutive quarter below 88%.

我們很高興本季的賺取保費達到創紀錄的水平，基本綜合成本率為 87.7%，比去年連續第三年的強勁業績提高了 340 個基點（原文如此 — 請參閱新聞稿，「3.4」）季低於88%。

This led to one of our strongest-ever underlying underwriting gains of $952 million after tax, up $337 million or 55% from the prior year quarter.

這導致我們有史以來最強勁的基礎承保收益之一達到稅後 9.52 億美元，比去年同期增長 3.37 億美元，即 55%。

The expense ratio for the second quarter was 28.8%, in line with our expectations and, once again, benefiting from the combination of our focus on productivity and efficiency, coupled with strong top-line growth.

第二季的費用率為 28.8%，符合我們的預期，並再次受益於我們對生產力和效率的關注以及強勁的營收成長。

We continue to expect 2024's full-year expense ratio to be 28% to 28.5%.

我們繼續預計2024年全年費用率為28%至28.5%。

As Alan mentioned, the industry experienced a very active cat quarter and our second-quarter results include $1.5 billion pretax catastrophe losses, driven by a record number of severe convective storms.

正如艾倫所提到的，該行業經歷了一個非常活躍的季度，我們第二季度的業績包括由創紀錄數量的強對流風暴造成的 15 億美元的稅前巨災損失。

As disclosed in the significant events table in our 10-Q, we had five events surpass the $100 million mark in Q2, all in the month of May.

正如我們 10 季的重大事件表中所揭露的，我們在第二季發生了 5 起超過 1 億美元大關的事件，全部發生在 5 月。

Turning to prior-year reserve development, we had total net favorable development of $230 million pretax.

談到上一年的儲備開發，我們的稅前淨利開發總額為 2.3 億美元。

In business insurance, net favorable PYD of $34 million resulted from approximately $300 million of better-than-expected loss experience in workers' comp across a number of accident years, largely offset by about $250 million of strengthening and general liability, driven by umbrella for accident years 2021 through 2023.

在商業保險方面，淨有利PYD 為3,400 萬美元，這是由於在多個事故年份中工人賠償損失經歷約3 億美元好於預期，這在很大程度上被約2.5 億美元的加強和一般責任所抵消，這是由保護傘驅動的2021 年至 2023 年發生事故。

In terms of the umbrella line, these are very young actioning years, made up almost entirely of IBNR but we will obviously continue to evaluate loss activity as it comes in.

就總體而言，這些是非常年輕的行動年份，幾乎完全由 IBNR 組成，但我們顯然會繼續評估損失活動。

We believe we have been proactive and decisive in addressing the latest observed loss activity and adjusting our view of loss development factors to allow for the prospect of rising settlement costs and lengthening settlement patterns.

我們相信，我們一直在積極果斷地解決最新觀察到的損失活動，並調整我們對損失發展因素的看法，以應對結算成本上升和結算模式延長的前景。

Importantly, our picks for accident years 2015 through 2020 did not require much adjustment in the first half of this year.

重要的是，我們對 2015 年至 2020 年事故年份的選擇在今年上半年不需要太多調整。

It's also worth noting that our returns in the umbrella line for the impact of accident years remain attractive.

另外值得注意的是，我們在事故年份影響下的整體回報仍然具有吸引力。

As we saw five years ago, when we were the first to call out a change in loss levels tied to an increase in attorney rep rates, sharpening our view of loss costs early in the development of immature accident years and long tail lines positions us to enhance our risk selection, pricing, and claims strategy, ultimately setting us up to outperform in terms of growth and profitability.

正如我們五年前所看到的那樣，當時我們第一個指出損失水準的變化與律師代表費率的提高有關，在不成熟的事故年份和長尾線發展的早期，我們對損失成本的看法更加敏銳，使我們能夠加強我們的風險選擇、定價和索賠策略，最終使我們在成長和獲利能力方面跑贏大盤。

And on a related note, with corp backlogs from the COVID shutdown now largely resolved, that element of uncertainty is, to a large degree, behind us.

與此相關的是，隨著新冠疫情導致的公司積壓工作現已基本解決，這種不確定因素在很大程度上已成為過去。

In bond & specialty, net favorable PYD was $24 million pretax.

在債券和專業債券方面，稅前淨有利 PYD 為 2,400 萬美元。

Personal insurance had significant net favorable PYD of $172 million pretax with good news from recent accident years in both home and auto.

個人保險的稅前淨有利 PYD 為 1.72 億美元，最近幾年家庭和汽車事故的好消息。

After-tax net investment income of $727 million increased by 22% from the prior year quarter.

稅後淨投資收益為 7.27 億美元，較去年同期成長 22%。

As expected, fixed maturity NII was again higher than the prior year quarter, reflecting both the benefit of higher average yields and higher invested assets.

正如預期的那樣，固定期限的NII再次高於去年同期，反映出平均殖利率上升和投資資產增加的好處。

Returns in the non-fixed income portfolio were also up from the prior year quarter.

非固定收益投資組合的報酬率也較去年同期上升。

Our outlook for fixed income NII, including earnings from short-term securities, has increased slightly.

我們對固定收益NII（包括短期證券收益）的展望略有上升。

We now expect approximately $675 million after tax in the third quarter from $695 million after tax in the fourth quarter.

我們現在預計第三季稅後約為 6.75 億美元，而第四季稅後為 6.95 億美元。

New money rates as of June 30 are still above the yields embedded in the portfolio.

截至 6 月 30 日，新貨幣利率仍高於投資組合中的收益率。

So fixed income NII should continue to improve beyond 2024 as the portfolio gradually turns over and continues to grow.

因此，隨著投資組合逐漸週轉並持續成長，固定收益NII應該會在2024年後繼續改善。

Turning to capital management, operating cash flows for the quarter of $1.7 billion were again, very strong.

談到資本管理，本季的營運現金流再次非常強勁，達到 17 億美元。

And we ended the quarter withholding company liquidity of approximately $1.7 billion.

本季結束時，我們扣留了約 17 億美元的公司流動資金。

Interest rates increased during the quarter.

本季利率有所上升。

And as a result, our net unrealized investment loss increased modestly from $3.7 billion after tax at March 31 to $4 billion after tax at June 30.

因此，我們的未實現投資淨損失從 3 月 31 日的稅後 37 億美元小幅增加至 6 月 30 日的稅後 40 億美元。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $126.52 at quarter end, up 3% from year-end, and up 10% from a year ago.

季末調整後每股帳面價值（不包括未實現的淨投資損益）為 126.52 美元，較年末成長 3%，較去年同期成長 10%。

We returned $498 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter, comprising share repurchases of $253 million in dividends of $245 million.

本季我們向股東返還了 4.98 億美元的資本，其中包括 2.53 億美元的股票回購和 2.45 億美元的股息。

We have approximately $5.5 billion of capacity remaining under the share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors.

根據董事會的股票回購授權，我們剩餘約 55 億美元的產能。

Turning to reinsurance, page 19 of the webcast presentation shows a summary of our July 1 reinsurance placements.

談到再保險，網路廣播簡報的第 19 頁顯示了我們 7 月 1 日再保險投放的摘要。

We increased coverage when we renewed our Northeast property cat XOL treaty, which now provides $1 billion of coverage above the attachment point of $2.75 billion.

當我們續簽東北房地產貓 XOL 條約時，我們增加了承保範圍，該條約現在在 27.5 億美元的附著點之上提供了 10 億美元的承保範圍。

A year ago, we purchased $850 million of coverage and the attachment point was $2.5 billion.

一年前，我們買了 8.5 億美元的保險，附著點為 25 億美元。

We also renewed the personal insurance hurricane cat excess of loss treaty for coastal exposure, which continues to provide 50% coverage for the $1 billion layer above and attachment point of $2 billion.

我們還更新了針對沿海風險的個人保險颶風貓超額損失條約，該條約繼續為上面 10 億美元的層和 20 億美元的附著點提供 50% 的保險。

Recapping our results, Q2 was another quarter of strong premium growth, excellent underwriting -- underlying underwriting profitability, and continued growth in net investment income, all of which bode well for our future returns.

回顧我們的業績，第二季度是另一個保費強勁增長、出色的承保——潛在承保盈利能力以及淨投資收入持續增長的季度，所有這些都預示著我們未來的回報。

Our ability to absorb $1.5 billion of pretax cat losses and still deliver $585 million of core income for the quarter is a testament to the overall strength of our diversified franchise and the fundamentals of our business.

我們有能力吸收 15 億美元的稅前巨災損失，並在本季度仍提供 5.85 億美元的核心收入，這證明了我們多元化特許經營的整體實力和我們業務的基本面。

To give a little more color on that, underlying underwriting income has become an increasingly reliable and important component of our earnings power.

更具體地說，基礎核保收入已成為我們獲利能力中越來越可靠和重要的組成部分。

Going back to the combination of Travelers and St. Paul, from 2005 through 2019, annual underlying underwriting income averaged $1.2 billion after tax.

回到 Travelers 和 St. Paul 的合併，從 2005 年到 2019 年，年度基本承保收入平均稅後為 12 億美元。

Our focus on profitable premium growth, which began accelerating around 2016, resulted in underlying underwriting income surpassing $2 billion for the first time ever in 2020, and we stayed above $2 billion through 2022.

我們對獲利性保費成長的關注從 2016 年左右開始加速，導致基本承保收入在 2020 年首次超過 20 億美元，並且到 2022 年我們一直保持在 20 億美元以上。

We then surpassed $3 billion in 2023 and through the first half of 2024, underlying underwriting income of just over $1.9 billion is up by 32% compared to the first half of 2023.

隨後，我們在 2023 年突破了 30 億美元，到 2024 年上半年，基本核保收入略高於 19 億美元，與 2023 年上半年相比成長了 32%。

In short, underlying underwriting income has become a significant and growing contributor to our ability to continue generating industry-leading returns with industry-low volatility.

簡而言之，基礎承保收入已成為我們繼續以行業低波動性產生行業領先回報的能力的重要且不斷增長的貢獻者。

And now for more color on each segment's results, I'll turn the call over to Greg to begin with a discussion of business insurance.

現在，為了了解每個細分市場結果的更多信息，我將把電話轉給格雷格，從商業保險的討論開始。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

Business insurance had another strong quarter in terms of both top and bottom-line results.

商業保險在營收和利潤方面再次表現強勁。

Segment income was $656 million, up more than 60% from the prior-year quarter, driven by prior year reserve development, higher net investment income, and higher underlying underwriting income.

受上年準備金開發、更高的淨投資收入和更高的基礎承保收入的推動，該部門收入為 6.56 億美元，比上年同期增長 60% 以上。

We're once again particularly pleased with the quarter's exceptionally strong underlying combined ratio of 89.2%, our best second-quarter result ever.

我們再次對本季 89.2% 的異常強勁的基本綜合成本率感到特別滿意，這是我們第二季有史以來最好的業績。

For modeling purposes, property losses for this quarter were about a point favorable to our expectations.

出於建模目的，本季的財產損失大約有利於我們的預期。

Net written premiums increased 7% to an all-time second-quarter high of more than $5.5 billion.

第二季淨承保保費成長 7%，達到超過 55 億美元的歷史新高。

Renewal premium change was once again historically high at 10.1%, with renewal rate change of 6.5% driving the majority of the strong pricing.

續保費變動再次創下 10.1% 的歷史新高，其中 6.5% 的續保費率變動推動了大部分強勁定價。

Retention remained excellent at 85% and new business was up 9% to a record quarterly high of $732 million.

保留率仍保持在 85% 的出色水平，新業務增長 9%，達到創紀錄的季度新高 7.32 億美元。

In terms of pricing, we're pleased to sustain strong levels of renewal premium change, which was double digits for the fifth quarter in a row.

在定價方面，我們很高興維持強勁的續保保費變化水平，連續第五個季度達到兩位數。

The strong pricing was broad-based, with renewal premium change in every line other than workers' comp at or pretty close to double digits.

強勁的定價是廣泛的，除了工人補償之外，所有產品線的續保保費變化都達到或接近兩位數。

In terms of pure renewal rate change, we're pleased that the exceptional, granular execution by our field organization reflects and appropriately balances the current return profile and environmental trends for each line.

就純粹的續訂率變化而言，我們很高興我們的現場組織出色、細緻的執行反映並適當地平衡了每條生產線當前的回報情況和環境趨勢。

In terms of sequential rate movement from the first quarter, CMP, auto, umbrella, and workers' comp all increased.

從第一季的季比變動來看，CMP、汽車、雨傘和工人補償均有所成長。

Umbrella and auto led the way with double-digit rate increases.

雨傘和汽車產業以兩位數的成長率領先。

Renewal rate change in our property line moderated driven by the national property business, reflecting strong returns for several years of substantial compounding rate improvements in terms and condition.

在全國房地產業務的推動下，我們的房地產項目的續訂率變化有所緩和，反映出多年來條款和條件方面復利率大幅改善的強勁回報。

Even with these strong pricing levels, retention was improved or flat in every line other than property.

即使定價水準如此強勁，除房地產以外的所有產品線的保留率均有所提高或持平。

For some large accounts that are national property business in particular traded away to the subscription market this quarter on terms we weren't willing to accept.

對於一些大型帳戶，特別是國有房地產業務，本季以我們不願意接受的條款轉入訂閱市場。

As for the individual businesses, in select, renewal premium change was exceptionally high at 12.3%, with the renewal rate change of 5.3%, up 1.5 point from the first quarter and more than 2 points from the second quarter of last year.

就個人業務而言，部分續保保費變化異常高，達12.3%，續保費率變動5.3%，較一季上升1.5個百分點，較去年二季上升超過2個百分點。

Retention remained healthy, but ticked down a bit from recent periods to 83% as we begin to purposely optimize our risk return profile and a couple of targeted geographies and classes.

保留率仍然保持健康，但隨著我們開始有目的地優化我們的風險回報狀況以及一些目標地區和類別，保留率較近期略有下降至 83%。

New business remains strong and increased 8% from the prior year quarter.

新業務依然強勁，較去年同期成長 8%。

We're pleased with the impact that our production, product, and platform initiatives are having in the marketplace and building a high-quality mix of business in driving profitable growth in this market.

我們對我們的生產、產品和平台計劃在市場上產生的影響以及在推動該市場的盈利增長方面建立高品質的業務組合感到高興。

In middle market, renewal premium change remains strong and consistent with recent levels at almost 10%.

在中間市場，續保保費變化依然強勁，與近期近 10% 的水平一致。

Renewal rate change of 7% was up more than a point from the second quarter of last year, and that has now been at or around the 7% mark for the fourth consecutive quarter.

續訂率變化為 7%，比去年第二季上升了一個多點，目前已經連續第四個季度保持在 7% 左右。

Retention also remained strong at 89% and new business of $383 million was the highest-ever second-quarter results.

保留率也維持在 89% 的強勁水平，新業務達到 3.83 億美元，是第二季歷史最高業績。

Lastly, fresh off my most recent round of field visits, I couldn't be more pleased with our team's execution, ideation, energy, and enthusiastic adoption of the tools and capabilities that have come from the strategic investments we've been making.

最後，在我最近一輪實地考察之後，我對我們團隊的執行力、創意、活力以及對來自我們一直在進行的戰略投資的工具和能力的熱情採用感到非常滿意。

And our distribution partners were once again crystal clear about our teams value and shared many examples of how our local teams, the best in the business, distinguish themselves.

我們的分銷合作夥伴再次清楚地了解了我們團隊的價值，並分享了許多例子，說明我們的本地團隊（業內最優秀的團隊）如何脫穎而出。

These trips continue to highlight for me the value of our high-performing talent in training curriculum as well as the dividends we are receiving from our investments to be the undeniable choice for the customer and an extensible partner for our agents and brokers.

這些旅行繼續向我強調我們高績效人才在培訓課程中的價值，以及我們從投資中獲得的紅利，成為客戶不可否認的選擇以及我們的代理商和經紀人的可擴展合作夥伴。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

這樣，我就把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

Bond & specialty posted another strong quarter on both the top and bottom lines.

債券與特種產品季度營收及淨利均表現強勁。

We generated segment income of $170 million and a strong combined ratio of 87.7%.

我們創造了 1.7 億美元的分部收入和 87.7% 的強勁綜合成本率。

The underlying combined ratio improved 1.7 points to a very strong 86.1%.

基礎綜合成本率提高了 1.7 個百分點，達到非常強勁的 86.1%。

The underlying loss ratio improved 4.1 points to an excellent 46.4%, reflecting the comparison to an elevated level of losses in the prior year quarter from a small number of surety accounts.

基本損失率改善了 4.1 個百分點，達到 46.4%，反映出與去年同期少數擔保帳戶損失水準較高的情況相比。

As we discussed last quarter, the expense ratio is modestly elevated, primarily due to the quarter's acquisition.

正如我們上季度討論的那樣，費用比率略有上升，主要是由於本季度的收購。

We expect that to continue to be the case for a few more quarters as we integrate the operation and as premiums from Corvus' attractive book of business ramp up and earn in.

我們預計，隨著我們整合業務以及 Corvus 有吸引力的業務帳面溢價的增加和盈利，這種情況將持續幾個季度。

Turning to the top line, we grew net written premiums by 8% in the quarter to a record high.

說到營收，本季我們的淨承保保費成長了 8%，創下歷史新高。

Through our high-quality domestic management liability business, we again delivered excellent retention of 90% with positive renewal premium change that is generally consistent with recent quarters.

透過我們高品質的國內管理責任業務，我們再次實現了 90% 的出色保留率，續保費呈積極變化，與最近幾個季度基本一致。

We're pleased that we grew new business by nearly 60% from the prior year quarter to a record $111 million, driven by Corvus.

我們很高興在 Corvus 的推動下，我們的新業務較去年同期成長了近 60%，達到創紀錄的 1.11 億美元。

As a reminder, all of Corvus production will continue to be reflected in new business through next quarter.

提醒一下，Corvus 的所有生產將繼續反映在下個季度的新業務中。

We grew net written premiums in our market-leading surety business by a terrific 11% in the quarter, reflecting a robust construction environment and continued strong demand for our surety products and services.

本季度，我們市場領先的擔保業務的淨承保保費增長了 11%，反映出強勁的建築環境以及對我們擔保產品和服務的持續強勁需求。

So we're pleased to have once again delivered strong top and bottom-line results this quarter.

因此，我們很高興本季再次取得了強勁的營收和利潤業績。

And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

現在我將把電話轉給麥可。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

In personal insurance, and excellent underlying underwriting result, and strong net favorable prior-year reserve development drove a significantly improved bottom-line result relative to the prior year quarter despite another period of elevated industry-wide catastrophe losses.

在個人保險方面，儘管全行業巨災損失又出現了一段時期的上升，但出色的基礎承保業績以及上年強勁的淨有利準備金發展推動了淨利潤較上年同期顯著改善。

The underlying combined ratio of 86.3% reflects nearly an eight point improvement compared to the prior year quarter, primarily driven by higher-earned pricing in both automobile and homeowners and other.

86.3% 的基本綜合成本率比去年同期提高了近 8 個百分點，這主要是由於汽車和房主及其他行業的定價較高所致。

Continued strong price increases in both auto and home drove 9% growth in net written premiums.

汽車和房屋價格持續強勁上漲推動淨承保保費成長 9%。

In auto, we're pleased with another quarter of improved profitability and with the underwriting fundamentals of the business.

在汽車領域，我們對又一個季度盈利能力的提高以及該業務的承保基本面感到滿意。

The second-quarter combined ratio of 97.9% improved more than 10 points compared to the prior year quarter due to a lower underlying combined ratio, as well as favorable prior-year development.

由於基礎綜合成本率較低以及去年同期的良好發展，第二季綜合成本率為 97.9%，較去年同期提高了 10 個百分點以上。

The underlying combined ratio improved more than eight points, driven by the benefit of higher-earned pricing and, to a lesser extent, lower losses from physical damage coverages.

基本綜合成本率提高了八個多點，這得益於較高的定價收益以及較小程度上物理損壞保險損失的降低。

For modeling purposes, we view roughly 2.5 points of the improvement in the quarter as non-recurring.

出於建模目的，我們認為本季大約 2.5 個百分點的改進是非經常性的。

In homeowners and other, the second-quarter combined ratio improved over 16 points compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting a lower underlying combined ratio, as well as higher favorable prior-year development.

在房主和其他方面，第二季度綜合成本率比去年同期提高了 16 個百分點以上，反映出較低的基礎綜合成本率以及較去年同期更好的發展。

For catastrophe loss, dollars were similar to the prior year quarter, made a smaller combined ratio impact as price increases continue to benefit earned premiums.

對於巨災損失，美元與去年同期相似，由於價格上漲繼續有利於賺取的保費，因此對綜合比率的影響較小。

Catastrophe losses this quarter, primarily resulting from severe convective storms, again significantly exceeded long-term industry averages.

本季主要由強烈對流風暴造成的災難損失再次大大超過了長期行業平均值。

The 28 PCS designated cat events were the most ever for a second quarter and 150% of the historical 10-year average.

28 場 PCS 指定貓事件是第二季度有史以來最多的，是歷史 10 年平均值的 150%。

Our catastrophe losses in the quarter were consistent with our market share.

我們本季的災難性損失與我們的市佔率一致。

And for context, our average annual cat losses over the last 5 and 10 years remain below our market share.

就背景而言，過去 5 年和 10 年我們的年平均貓損失仍然低於我們的市場份額。

This most recent experience will, of course, be reflected in our models going forward, and we will continue to weigh our recent experience more heavily in our ongoing process of optimizing our exposure, underwriting, and pricing.

當然，這項最新經驗將反映在我們未來的模型中，我們將繼續在優化風險敞口、核保和定價的過程中更加重視我們最近的經驗。

The underlying combined ratio of 77.6% improved 67.6 points due in large part to lower-than-expected fire and non-weather water losses, as well as the benefit of our pricing.

77.6% 的基本綜合成本率提高了 67.6 個百分點，這在很大程度上是由於火災和非天氣水損失低於預期以及我們定價的好處。

For modeling purposes, we expect approximately five points of the improvement and on the homeowners and other underlying combined ratio to be non-recurring.

出於建模目的，我們預計房主和其他基礎綜合比率將有大約五個點的改善，並且不會經常出現。

Turning to production, our results reflect the ongoing execution of our granular state-by-state strategy, has rebalanced profitability and growth across the portfolio.

轉向生產，我們的結果反映了我們細粒度的逐州策略的持續執行，重新平衡了整個投資組合的獲利能力和成長。

In domestic automobile, retention of 82% remained strong.

國產汽車方面，82%的留存率依然強勁。

Renewal premium change of 15.8% continued to moderate as anticipated.

續保保費變動 15.8%，如預期持續放緩。

Auto renewal premium change will continue to gradually decline, reflecting the improved profitability on the line.

汽車續保保費變動將持續逐步下降，反映出線上獲利能力的改善。

While new business premiums were higher than the prior-year in many states, new business premium and aggregate was down slightly, relative to the second quarter of last year.

雖然許多州的新業務保費高於去年，但新業務保費和總額較去年第二季略有下降。

This is a result of our continuing efforts to manage auto profitability and a few remaining challenged states, as well as across line impact resulting from some of our property actions, particularly in high-risk cat areas.

這是我們持續努力管理汽車盈利能力和一些仍然面臨挑戰的州的結果，也是我們的一些財產行動（特別是在高風險貓地區）造成的跨線影響的結果。

Production results in homeowners and other reflect our focus to manage growth while improving profitability.

房主和其他人的生產結果反映了我們在提高獲利能力的同時管理成長的重點。

Renewal premium change increased sequentially to 15.1%, reflecting higher rate change while retention remained strong at 85%.

續保費變動較上季增加至 15.1%，反映出較高的費率變化，而保留率仍維持在 85% 的強勁水準。

We expect renewal premium change to remain at this level through year end.

我們預計續保保費變動將在年底前維持在這一水準。

As we intended, new business and policies enforced declined, reflecting our efforts to thoughtfully deploy capacity.

正如我們預期的那樣，新業務和執行的政策有所下降，反映出我們在深思熟慮地部署產能方面所做的努力。

To sum up for the personal insurance segment overall, we're pleased with our progress as we continue to deliver improved profitability.

總而言之，我們對個人保險領域的整體進展感到滿意，因為我們繼續提高獲利能力。

We're confident that the actions we've taken and continue to take will result in a profitable growing portfolio of personal lines business over time.

我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們已經採取和繼續採取的行動將帶來個人險業務組合的獲利成長。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

現在我將把電話轉回阿貝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And, operator, we're ready to open up for Q&A.

接線員，我們已準備好進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）David Motemaden，Evercore ISI。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

I just had a question on the moving pieces around reserves in business insurance.

我剛剛有一個關於商業保險準備金變動的問題。

So just the $250 million of recent accident year umbrella charges, that comes after $100 million last quarter.

因此，最近事故年的保護傘費用為 2.5 億美元，上季為 1 億美元。

So I guess I'm wondering if you could just elaborate on some of the more puts and takes and maybe give some confidence that you can put this behind you after the changes you made this quarter.

所以我想我想知道您是否可以詳細說明一些更多的看跌期權和看跌期權，並可能給予一些信心，讓您在本季度做出改變後可以將其拋在腦後。

Hi, David, it's Dan.

嗨，大衛，我是丹。

So you're right, we've seen umbrella and the general liability lines require some strengthening in the last two quarters.

所以你是對的，我們已經看到過去兩個季度需要加強保護傘和一般責任線。

As we said in prepared remarks, we think that we're being proactive in reacting early and being decisive in the meaning that we're being reasonably comprehensive, and I mean by reacting in a meaningful way to what we're seeing.

正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們認為我們正在積極主動地及早做出反應並果斷地做出反應，這意味著我們相當全面，我的意思是對我們所看到的情況做出有意義的反應。

The competence we have is two pieces.

我們擁有的能力有兩個部分。

One is, we are reacting both to the changes in actual versus expected and allowing for longer development factors going forward on the very recent accident years.

一是，我們既要對實際與預期的變化做出反應，又要考慮到最近事故年份的長期發展因素。

So for the most part, we haven't even seen these claims come in yet, but we are allowing for the fact that when claims come in, they are likely going to cost more and take longer to settle.

因此，在大多數情況下，我們甚至還沒有看到這些索賠，但我們考慮到這樣一個事實：當索賠出現時，它們可能會花費更多並且需要更長的時間來解決。

And then, I think, importantly, the 2015 through 2020 period has held up pretty well given the actions that we had taken through the end of 2023.

然後，我認為，重要的是，考慮到我們到 2023 年底採取的行動，2015 年到 2020 年期間的表現相當不錯。

Got it, okay.

明白了，好吧。

And maybe also within business insurance, the underlying loss ratio, if I sort of adjust out the light non-cat weather this quarter and then, in 2Q '23, there still was around 50 basis points of improvement year over year on a clean basis.

也許在商業保險中，潛在的損失率，如果我調整一下本季度的輕微非貓天氣，那麼在 2023 年第二季度，在乾淨的基礎上，同比仍然有大約 50 個基點的改善。

Could you talk about, I guess, what was driving that improvement?

我想您能談談是什麼推動了這種改進嗎？

And, especially given all these changes, was there any change to loss trend baked in there?

而且，特別是考慮到所有這些變化，其中的損失趨勢是否有任何變化？

It's Dan again, so I'll take that.

又是丹，所以我接受。

So start with the second part first, so every time we have an impact on PYD, we reevaluate.

所以先從第二部分開始，所以每次我們對PYD產生影響時，我們都會重新評估。

It's not going to have an impact on current loss year jump off point or loss trend.

它不會對當前虧損年度跳躍點或虧損趨勢產生影響。

We'd said last quarter that we had added, beginning last quarter, some IBNR to the current accident year.

我們上個季度說過，從上個季度開始，我們已經在當前事故年度中添加了一些 IBNR。

So we had already taken some action.

所以我們已經採取了一些行動。

The changes that we made in PYD had some carryforward impact on the umbrella line, but there's puts and takes across a variety of lines.

我們在 PYD 中所做的變更對總括產品線產生了一些結轉影響，但在各種產品線中都存在變化。

And when you blend them all together inside of business insurance, it did not result in a big movement.

當你將它們全部整合到商業保險中時，並沒有導致大的變化。

In terms of the overall movement in BI's underlying loss ratio, you've got the big parts.

就 BI 基本損失率的整體變動而言，您已經掌握了重要部分。

There's still some benefit from earned pricing.

贏得定價仍然有一些好處。

Greg called out the fact that property loss is, other than cat, we're about a point favorable than our expectations.

格雷格指出，財產損失除了貓之外，我們的情況比我們的預期有利。

Other than that, in any quarter, you're going to have a half a dozen things that move favorably or unfavorably from mix to base year to the impact to reinsurance and you're seeing the net of those things.

除此之外，在任何季度，你都會有六種因素從混合到基準年對再保險的影響產生有利或不利的影響，並且你會看到這些因素的淨值。

Nothing significant in there in terms of those individual movements.

就這些個人動作而言，其中沒有什麼重要意義。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks, good morning.

嗨，謝謝，早安。

My first question, I'm looking at BI pricing trend, which the RRC decelerated by 40 basis points.

我的第一個問題是，我正在關注 BI 定價趨勢，RRC 下降了 40 個基點。

Is that just due to property given that select and middle market did improve in the quarter?

鑑於本季精選市場和中間市場確實有所改善，這僅僅是由於房地產嗎？

Hey, Elyse.

嘿，愛麗絲。

This is Greg.

這是格雷格。

Good morning.

早安.

Yeah, you can see on the webcast the individual pieces of select and middle market and select is up and middle market is flat.

是的，您可以在網路廣播中看到精選市場和中間市場的各個部分，精選市場上漲，中間市場持平。

And I did call out that national property is the primary driver of that slight deceleration.

我確實指出，國家財產是這種輕微減速的主要驅動力。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then, just going back to the umbrella increase as well, can you give us a sense, maybe, put some more color by accident year?

然後，回到雨傘的增加，你能給我們一個感覺，也許，今年不小心多加了一些顏色？

And then, maybe just a little bit more follow-up on David's question, like what emerged, I guess, in the Q2 more than what you saw in the Q1, to think that you put this issue to bed, that we're not going to be dealing with additional charges as we go through the balance of this year.

然後，也許對大衛的問題有更多的後續行動，就像我想在第二季度中出現的情況比你在第一季度中看到的更多，認為你已經把這個問題擱置了，我們沒有當我們度過今年剩餘的時間時，我們將處理額外的費用。

Yeah, Elyse, it's Dan.

是的，愛麗絲，我是丹。

So I think it's a pretty narrow range.

所以我認為這是一個相當狹窄的範圍。

We've given you that it's three accident years, '21, '22, and '23.

我們已經告訴您，這是三個事故年，「21」、「22」和「23」。

I don't really feel the need to break it apart between the three.

我真的不覺得有必要將這三者分開。

And it's a little bit more of the same, right?

而且有點相似，對吧？

Things have continued to come in a little higher, whether it's a tornado upgrade or severity, jury awards, all of those things, lengthening of the tail.

事情繼續變得更高一點，無論是龍捲風升級還是嚴重程度，陪審團裁決，所有這些事情，尾巴的加長。

What we're doing this quarter is, again, both reacting to what did we see that came in differently than what we would have expected and adjusting the development factors that we're going to use going forward and that's what we mean when we say we think we're being proactive and decisive in this quarter's action.

我們本季所做的再次是對我們所看到的與我們預期不同的情況做出反應，並調整我們將在未來使用的開發因素，這就是我們說的意思我們認為本季的行動是積極主動和果斷的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Hey, thanks for taking my question.

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Yeah, I just wanted to ask on the data surrounding the corp backlogs, I thought that was interesting.

是的，我只是想詢問有關公司積壓訂單的數據，我認為這很有趣。

The corp backlogs are now resolved from the COVID shutdown.

該公司積壓的訂單現已因新冠疫情關閉而解決。

Could you give us a little more color on that?

您能為我們提供更多資訊嗎？

Are you referencing data for Travelers or is that external industry data?

您引用的是旅行者資料還是外部產業資料？

Yeah, Rob, good morning.

是的，羅布，早安。

It's Alan.

是艾倫。

That is really an evaluation of our own data.

這實際上是對我們自己的數據的評估。

But we think we've -- we're probably have the market relevance to understand what's going on more broadly, but that's based on our view of our data.

但我們認為我們可能具有市場相關性來更廣泛地了解正在發生的事情，但這是基於我們對數據的看法。

Okay, got it.

好，知道了。

And the changes to reinsurance, do you expect any impact to the combined ratio at all or the underlying combined ratio for many of the movements there?

再保險的變化，您預計會對綜合比率或許多變動的基本綜合比率產生任何影響嗎？

Rob, it's Dan.

羅布，我是丹。

So not really.

所以不是真的。

Pricing was about in line with what we would have expected and I'll just remind you that, although cost of reinsurance might have gone up a little bit, we're getting price increases on the direct side.

定價與我們的預期基本一致，我只是提醒您，儘管再保險成本可能略有上升，但我們的直接價格卻上漲了。

So the margin impact is insignificant, probably, if any.

因此，即使有的話，利潤率影響也可能微不足道。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

I'd like to, for my first question, focus on slide 8 of your PowerPoint presentation.

對於第一個問題，我想重點討論 PowerPoint 簡報的第 8 張投影片。

And what I'm focused on is your competitive positioning.

我關注的是你的競爭定位。

If I look at the year-to-date top-line results, kind of seeing the movements that I'm surprised by, I guess seeing national accounts grow as much as it did year-to-date basis kind of seems like it's counterintuitive.

如果我看一下年初至今的營收結果，就會看到令我驚訝的變動，我想看到國民帳戶的增長與年初至今的基礎一樣多，這似乎有點違反直覺。

You expect the larger account business to be more competitive.

您期望更大的客戶業務更具競爭力。

And then, on the select and middle market, I kind of anticipate maybe that to be higher growth areas for you from a net premium written perspective, so maybe you could provide some colors on that topic.

然後，在精選市場和中端市場上，我預計從淨保費書面角度來看，這對您來說可能是更高的成長領域，所以也許您可以就該主題提供一些顏色。

So, Greg, it's Dan.

所以，格雷格，是丹。

I'll start and maybe Greg will chime in.

我先開始，也許格雷格會插嘴。

So national accounts, on a relative basis, in terms of its contribution to business insurance in total, not the biggest piece, and it's large accounts.

因此，相對而言，國民帳戶對商業保險的貢獻總額並不是最大的一部分，而且是大帳戶。

So how many you retain -- you could lose one account in the quarter and that has a big impact on retention.

那麼您保留了多少個帳戶——您可能會在本季度失去一個帳戶，這對保留率有很大影響。

You can write one new -- big new piece of business that's going to change that premium base.

你可以寫出一項新的——龐大的新業務，這將改變這個溢價基礎。

So I'd say two things about national accounts.

關於國民帳戶，我想說兩件事。

One, we're really happy with the profitability of that book.

第一，我們對這本書的獲利能力非常滿意。

Two, I'm not surprised to see the variability given, one, that's a relatively small base and that, two, the accounts themselves tend to be big.

第二，看到給予的可變性，我並不感到驚訝，第一，這是一個相對較小的基數，第二，帳戶本身往往很大。

In terms of select and middle, we love the performance of both of those businesses.

在精選業務和中間業務方面，我們喜歡這兩項業務的表現。

Greg did make comments in his script about some refinement of the way we're thinking about underwriting in small commercial middle market.

格雷格確實在他的劇本中評論了我們對小型商業中間市場承保方式的一些改進。

Margins are really good, 8% growth.

利潤率確實不錯，成長了8%。

We're very happy on how we focused on the balance of retention and price where we need it.

我們非常高興我們能夠在需要的地方實現保留率和價格的平衡。

But, I don't know, Greg, anything to add to that?

但是，我不知道，格雷格，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, Greg.

是的，格雷格。

Maybe just start with the bigger picture, the total business, 7%, so a really good result given the attractive margins in this business right now.

也許只是從更大的前景開始，總業務佔 7%，考慮到目前該業務的利潤率頗具吸引力，這確實是一個很好的結果。

And you pointed out some of the individual business units.

您也指出了一些單獨的業務部門。

When you look at them from quarter to quarter, a number of items can have some level of variation, including booking lags, reinsurance processing, things that Dan just referenced.

當你逐季度查看它們時，許多項目可能會有一定程度的變化，包括預訂滯後、再保險處理、丹剛才提到的事情。

But in terms of the aggregate results, I'd point you as close as they are, the quarter year to date.

但就整體結果而言，我會向您指出本季迄今為止的情況。

I'd point you to the year-to-date number as that's a better indicator of how we're feeling about the top line of the business right now.

我會向您指出今年迄今為止的數字，因為它可以更好地表明我們目前對業務收入的看法。

Fair enough.

很公平。

I guess for my follow-up question, I'm going to pivot to the personal insurance segment.

我想對於我的後續問題，我將轉向個人保險領域。

And, Michael, I appreciate your comments about in challenged states and trying to get position, the right positioning and pricing for your auto product.

而且，邁克爾，我很欣賞您關於在充滿挑戰的州的評論，並試圖為您的汽車產品獲得定位、正確的定位和定價。

One of the largest and most visible peers seems to be really gaining share at this moment in time in the personal auto space.

目前，最大、最引人注目的同行之一似乎確實在個人汽車領域獲得了份額。

And, I guess, when I look at your policy for -- and, of course, count going down, both in the first and second quarter.

而且，我想，當我查看你們的政策時——當然，第一季和第二季的計數都會下降。

I'm just curious if you think your competitive positioning in personal auto is consistent with what's going on in the marketplace.

我只是好奇您是否認為您在個人汽車領域的競爭定位與市場上的情況一致。

Yeah, Greg, I think it's a great question.

是的，格雷格，我認為這是一個很好的問題。

I would say, to your point about it, is it consistent with what's going on in the marketplace, it's interesting.

我想說，就你的觀點而言，它與市場上正在發生的事情是否一致，這很有趣。

The one peer you're talking about is the one peer with those results, not everybody else inclusive of us.

您所說的一位同行是取得這些結果的一位同行，而不是包括我們在內的其他所有人。

So I would take a step back, first of all, and say, certainly, kudos to them and the results they're generating and the success that they're having.

因此，我首先要退後一步，當然要對他們、他們所取得的成果以及他們所取得的成功表示敬意。

But it's really not us who's the outlier.

但真正的異常值並不是我們。

And then, underneath that, I think, again, I tried to detail it for you, we are having success in the geographies that I'll say are the ones that aren't noisy and generating new business growth in those places where we like the auto margins and we're not impacted by some of the property actions, number one.

然後，在此之下，我想，我再次嘗試為您詳細說明，我們在那些不吵鬧的地區取得了成功，並在我們喜歡的地方產生了新的業務增長第一，汽車利潤率，我們沒有受到某些房地產行動的影響。

That growth is, if you just look at the auto line by itself being hampered by those challenged geographies.

如果你只看汽車生產線本身就受到這些充滿挑戰的地區的阻礙，那麼這種成長就是事實。

And then I also think that it's important to think about the differences in our strategy and our book of business.

然後我還認為考慮我們的策略和業務方面的差異很重要。

When you look at our auto growth numbers, right, we are predominantly a package writer of personal lines business.

當你看看我們的汽車成長數據時，你會發現我們主要是個人線路業務的包裝作家。

Because, our competitor, if that's growing -- auto is not predominantly a package writer of personal lines business,

因為，我們的競爭對手，如果這一點正在成長的話——汽車並不是主要是個人線路業務的包裝作家，

And when you look at the challenged geographies from a property standpoint, and you look at the independent agent channel, what you find in the marketplace is that, in many of those geographies, in order to write the property, the carriers insisting on also writing the auto.

當你從財產的角度來看受到挑戰的地區時，你會看到獨立代理管道，你在市場上發現的是，在許多這些地區，為了寫財產，運營商堅持也寫汽車。

And so, if you are a competitor that's less dependent on auto business that brings property with it, you're not as challenged by those marketplace dynamics in those high-risk property geographies.

因此，如果您是不太依賴汽車業務帶來財產的競爭對手，那麼您就不會受到那些高風險財產地區的市場動態的挑戰。

So, I think, those are some of the things that explain the differences.

所以，我認為這些是解釋差異的一些因素。

But again, I would come back and say we're very pleased with our ability to generate auto new business growth into places where we're not challenged by those factors.

但我要再說一遍，我們對自己能夠在不受這些因素挑戰的地方實現汽車新業務成長的能力感到非常滿意。

The other thing is, if you were to look underneath the new business growth numbers, first of all, you can see inaggregate auto new business growth is much better than property new business growth.

另一件事是，如果你看一下新業務成長數據，首先你會發現汽車新業務成長總體上比房地產新業務成長要好得多。

And particularly, in those challenged geographies from a property standpoint, our auto new business is down, but it's not down nearly as much as the property in new business in those geographies.

特別是，從房地產的角度來看，在那些面臨挑戰的地區，我們的汽車新業務有所下降，但下降幅度遠不及這些地區新業務的房地產下降幅度。

And, Greg, I would just point out at a very high level, Michael points out some distinguishing characteristics of our personal insurance business.

格雷格，我只想在很高的水平上指出，邁克爾指出了我們個人保險業務的一些顯著特徵。

There are some significant benefits from that business model.

這種商業模式有一些顯著的好處。

I mean, obviously, it's having the impact it's having on growth, but there are some significant offsetting benefits to that business model.

我的意思是，顯然，它對成長產生了影響，但該商業模式也有一些重大的抵消效益。

And we're well on the way to sorting this out.

我們正在努力解決這個問題。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you very much for the detailed answers.

非常感謝您的詳細解答。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

So first, just had a question on just your cat losses.

首先，我有一個關於你的貓損失的問題。

Given the changes we've seen in the reinsurance market the last year and a half, should we assume that you're going to be absorbing higher levels of debt going forward or is the high number that you posted this quarter the same quarter of last year, as well more of a function of the type of events we've seen?

鑑於我們在過去一年半中看到的再保險市場的變化，我們是否應該假設您將在未來吸收更高水平的債務，或者您本季度發布的債務數量與上個季度相同年，以及更多我們所看到的事件類型的函數？

Yeah, Jim, it's Dan.

是的，吉姆，是丹。

So, if you look at the reinsurance detail we gave at the January one renewals and now again at July 1 renewals, we're not really holding onto more.

因此，如果您查看我們在 1 月一次續保時提供的再保險詳細信息，以及現在在 7 月 1 日續保時提供的再保險詳細信息，我們並沒有真正保留更多。

We tend to buy more tail coverage on big cat events.

我們傾向於購買更多大型賽事的尾部報道。

The attachment points have gone up.

附著點已經上升。

The attachment points have gone up naturally as a result of the growth in the premium base and the growth of the insured values.

由於保費基數的增長和保險價值的增長，附著點自然上升。

So what's coming through our net result is not really any impact from less use of reinsurance.

因此，我們的最終結果並不是再保險使用減少所帶來的任何影響。

Okay.

好的。

And then just for Michael on -- can you talk about just first, competitor behavior in the personal auto line both in terms of pricing and then advertising spending by some of the larger peers?

然後邁克爾——您能否先談談個人汽車產品線中競爭對手的行為，包括定價和一些較大同行的廣告支出？

Sure, Jimmy.

當然，吉米。

I would say in terms of pricing, we continue to see renewal premium changes and price changes working their way into books of business across the industry, similar to what we're seeing.

我想說的是，就定價而言，我們繼續看到續訂保費變化和價格變化影響到整個行業的業務，與我們所看到的類似。

I do think it's important when you look at our renewal premium change number though, to distinguish between what's coming through renewal premium change and the rate that's being filed for go-forward business, right?

我確實認為，當您查看我們的續保費變更數字時，區分續保保費變更和為後續業務提交的費率是很重要的，對吧？

What you're looking at when you look at our renewal premium change number and many renewal premium change numbers across the industry is the lagged effect of the rate that's already been taken.

當您查看我們的續保保費變化數字以及整個行業的許多續保費變化數字時，您看到的是已採取的費率的滯後效應。

When we look at filing activity for ourselves and for others, you see a much less significant amount of rate filing this time this year than you would have seen this time last year.

當我們查看我們自己和其他人的申請活動時，您會發現今年這個時候的費率申請數量比去年這個時候要少得多。

And so again, what you're seeing in renewal premium change in auto is the lagged impact of that.

同樣，您在汽車續保保費變化中看到的是其滯後影響。

In terms of your question about advertising, certainly we see increased advertising amongst some of our competitors who are big advertisers across the industry.

就您有關廣告的問題而言，我們當然看到一些競爭對手的廣告增加，他們是整個行業的大廣告商。

In marketplaces where we bid for demand, where we bid for leads, we see the prices of those leads going up.

在我們為需求出價、為潛在客戶出價的市場中，我們看到這些潛在客戶的價格正在上漲。

That's reflective of that increased advertising spend and that increased appetite for leads.

這反映了廣告支出的增加和對潛在客戶的興趣的增加。

But I think that those, both of those things, demonstrate that what you're seeing is improved profitability in auto across the industry and a pivot towards profitable growth, very consistent with the conversation and the messaging that we're sharing.

但我認為，這兩件事都表明，您所看到的是整個行業汽車盈利能力的提高以及盈利增長的支點，這與我們分享的對話和信息非常一致。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joshua Shanker, Bank of America.

約書亞‧尚克，美國銀行。

Yeah, thank you very much.

是的，非常感謝。

I guess, for Michael, you're right to point out that the property declines are greater than the auto declines.

我想，對麥可來說，你指出房地產下降幅度大於汽車下降幅度是正確的。

I'm wondering if you can talk about whether there's non-renewals of customers who you're no longer -- given their geographies, or whether it's pricing actions that are driving those customers away.

我想知道您是否可以談談是否存在不再屬於您的客戶（考慮到他們的地理位置）而不再續約，或者是否是定價行為導致了這些客戶離開。

When we look at the policy count changes in homeowners, what's driving them?

當我們觀察房主的政策變化時，是什麼推動了這些變化？

Sure, Josh.

當然，喬許。

The biggest driver of the policy count decline in homeowners is the reduction in new business.

房屋保單數量下降的最大驅動因素是新業務的減少。

You see with the retention holding relatively steady.

您會看到保留率保持相對穩定。

And so, for the most part, new business production being down is what's driving the fifth decline.

因此，在很大程度上，新業務產量下降是第五次下降的原因。

I'll also say that, it's sort of consistent with my comments earlier, the new business reduction in the cat challenge states is down more significantly than the new business reduction you see in the production highlights as we work to manage the distribution of our property exposure.

I'll also say that, it's sort of consistent with my comments earlier, the new business reduction in the cat challenge states is down more significantly than the new business reduction you see in the production highlights as we work to manage the distribution of our property曝露.

There is some limited non-renewal activity that I would say is really twofold.

我認為有一些有限的非更新活動實際上是雙重的。

One is normal course, good hygiene, evaluating the worst performing risks in the portfolio and taking action on them.

一是正常的過程，良好的衛生習慣，評估投資組合中表現最差的風險並對其採取行動。

The other is some targeted non-renewals again as we manage the geographic distribution of our exposures and manage growth in some higher concentration, higher cat geographies.

另一個是一些有針對性的不續約，因為我們管理我們的風險敞口的地理分佈，並管理一些更高集中度、更高風險地區的成長。

But again, those actions are all intentional.

但同樣，這些行為都是有意的。

And the new businesses reductions, as I said in my prepared remarks, really are as intended as part of our efforts to improve profitability.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，新業務的削減確實是我們提高獲利能力努力的一部分。

And then, a quick question on catastrophe, it's been quite a decade in terms of catastrophe losses.

然後，一個關於災難的簡單問題，就災難損失而言，已經有相當十年的時間了。

While you may have changed over time, you were -- cat man performance's been pretty consistent.

雖然你可能隨著時間的推移而發生了變化，但你——貓人的表現一直相當穩定。

You like the risk and you only have protection really at the top for very extreme events.

你喜歡冒險，而且只有在非常極端的事件發生時，你才會真正得到最高層的保護。

A broken clock is right twice a day and hindsight is 20/20, but looking at the last 10 years, has the cat program at Travelers been the most efficient use of your capital and when you revisit, that this exactly what we need to do for the next 10 years?

壞掉的時鐘每天準兩次，事後看來是 20/20，但回顧過去 10 年，旅行者的貓計劃是否是您資本的最有效利用，當您重新審視時，這正是我們需要做的未來10年？

Josh, I think we're very comfortable with being a net underwriter.

喬什，我認為我們對成為淨承銷商感到非常滿意。

We think that we've got the data, the analytics, the culture to manage this the right way.

我們認為我們已經擁有數據、分析和文化來以正確的方式進行管理。

And you can't expect to reinsure to take on losses without conveying our margin to them.

如果不向他們提供保證金，您就不能指望透過再保險來承擔損失。

And so, when we look at the strength of our underwriting, we think that there's a real advantage for us and being largely a net underwriter.

因此，當我們審視我們的承銷實力時，我們認為，作為一家主要的淨承銷商，我們擁有真正的優勢。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Ryan Tunis, Autonomous Research.

Ryan Tunis，自主研究。

Hey, thanks, good morning.

嘿，謝謝，早安。

First question, couple of points on casualty, first of all, I guess, of what you're seeing in umbrella, is it safe to assume that the underlying cause of a lot of those losses you're seeing is mostly auto-related?

第一個問題，關於傷亡的幾點，首先，我想，你在保護傘中看到的情況，是否可以安全地假設你看到的許多損失的根本原因主要與汽車相關？

That's the first part.

這是第一部分。

And then, the second part, I remember like six years ago, in 2019, you guys experienced some of these earlier than others.

然後，第二部分，我記得大約六年前，2019 年，你們比其他人更早經歷了其中一些。

This is something about on your small middle market, you're writing lower limits, that there's a little bit less of a tail.

這與你的小型中型市場有關，你正在寫下限，尾巴會少一點。

So just the nature of your business, kind of experiences, is some of the inflationary impacts you're seeing from 2021 to 2023 faster?

那麼，根據您的業務性質、體驗類型，您在 2021 年至 2023 年期間看到的一些通膨影響是否會更快？

Hey, Ryan.

嘿，瑞安。

Let me start there.

讓我從這裡開始。

So in terms of what we're seeing, no, it's actually not a predominantly auto issue.

因此，就我們所看到的情況而言，不，這實際上並不是一個主要的汽車問題。

This is a combination of economic inflation and social inflation, driving claim activity into the umbrella line ensure.

這是經濟通膨和社會通膨的結合，推動索賠活動進入傘線保障範圍。

Economic inflation sort of speaks for itself.

經濟通膨本身就說明了一切。

Social inflation, it's an aggressive plaintiffs' bar.

社會通貨膨脹，這是一個咄咄逼人的原告酒吧。

It's third party litigation funding.

這是第三方訴訟資金。

It's sympathetic jury -- it's the exact same constellation of factors we've been talking about, just a little bit more pronounced.

這是一個富有同情心的陪審團——這與我們一直在談論的一系列因素完全相同，只是更明顯一點。

In terms of of our ability to see it sooner, I don't -- honestly don't think it's a function of our book of business or limits or anything else.

就我們更快看到它的能力而言，我不認為——老實說，這不是我們的業務或限製或其他任何東西的功能。

I think it's a function of our data, our analytics, and really importantly, our culture.

我認為這是我們的數據、我們的分析以及更重要的是我們的文化的功能。

We've got a culture that looks for this that sees it.

我們有一種尋找並看到它的文化。

We've got a very, very important and very valuable feedback loop among our claims professionals, our pricing actuaries, our reserving actuaries, and our underwriters that can put together a story very, very quickly,

我們在理賠專業人員、定價精算師、準備金精算師和承保人之間建立了一個非常非常重要且非常有價值的回饋循環，可以非常非常快地整理出一個故事，

And it's actually the competitive advantages.

這其實是競爭優勢。

As Dan highlighted in his prepared remarks, the ability to sharpen the view of loss cost is very, very early in the life of immature long tail lines is a huge advantage.

正如丹在他準備好的演講中所強調的那樣，在不成熟的長尾線生命週期的早期就能夠敏銳地認識到損失成本是一個巨大的優勢。

It's a difference on whether you're subject to adverse selection or inflicting adverse selection.

是受到逆向選擇還是造成逆向選擇是有差別的。

And we think this positions us very well.

我們認為這對我們來說非常有利。

Again, it's very, very early.

再說一次，現在還非常非常早。

These years are predominantly IBNR and the other returns that we're looking at in those years actually continues to be very attractive.

這些年主要是 IBNR，而我們在這些年看到的其他回報實際上仍然非常有吸引力。

So, okay, I get the interest in it.

所以，好吧，我對此感興趣。

Believe me, we're interested in it, too.

相信我，我們也對此感興趣。

But our ability to see this and react to it really is a competitive advantage for Travelers.

但我們能夠看到這一點並做出反應，這對旅行者來說確實是一個競爭優勢。

Got it.

知道了。

Then, I guess, just a follow-up, I think Greg mentioned lower retention in select accounts.

然後，我想，只是一個後續行動，我認為格雷格提到了選定帳戶的保留率較低。

I heard the word geography is -- I mean, I would expect that you are seeing elevated counts in commercial lines.

我聽到「地理」這個詞是——我的意思是，我希望你會看到商業線路的數量增加。

I'd be curious if you guys think you are.

我很好奇你們是否認為自己是。

Is that more of a small commercial issue or if not, is it kind of more middle market or national account?

這更像是一個小商業問題，或者如果不是，它是一種更中間市場或國民帳戶的問題嗎？

Hey, Ryan.

嘿，瑞安。

This is Greg.

這是格雷格。

Yeah, we're not seeing cat disproportionately across any of the business units in business insurance.

是的，我們在商業保險的任何業務部門中都沒有看到不成比例的貓。

And it's just our normal good housekeeping in select that we're going through, and looking at the book of business, and understanding parts of it where we need to get a better risk return profile and -- so certainly aren't going to share the individual geographies as that's market sensitive.

這只是我們正在經歷的正常的良好內務管理，並查看業務手冊，並了解其中我們需要獲得更好的風險回報狀況的部分內容 - 所以當然不會分享個別地區，因為這是市場敏感的。

But that's what's going on underneath that statement.

但這就是該聲明背後所發生的事情。

It's the kind of optimizing we do in every business every day.

這就是我們每天在每項業務中所做的優化。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

布萊恩·梅雷迪思，瑞銀集團。

Hey, thanks, couple of quick questions here.

嘿，謝謝，這裡有幾個簡單的問題。

First one, there was some legislation in Florida, I guess, that passed in June that talked about Medicare reimbursement rates to doctors that will affect workers' comp.

第一個，我猜佛羅裡達州在六月通過了一些立法，其中談到了醫生的醫療保險報銷率，這將影響工人的補償。

I'm just curious if you could maybe talk a little bit about how that would affect comp, pricing, and loss cost severity trends and is that something you see continuing throughout the US?

我只是好奇您能否談談這將如何影響補償、定價和損失成本嚴重性趨勢，您認為這種情況在美國會持續嗎？

Brian, what I would say about workers' comp loss trend is that, we continue to look at based on long-term basis and frequency and severity both continue to emerge favorable to our expectations.

布萊恩，關於工人補償損失趨勢，我想說的是，我們將繼續基於長期基礎進行觀察，頻率和嚴重程度都繼續有利於我們的預期。

So there's nothing we're seeing out there that's necessarily adversely impacting that perspective, but it's a long-tailed line and we're going to have a lot of respect for the duration of the liability.

因此，我們沒有看到任何必然會對這種觀點產生不利影響的東西，但這是一條長尾線，我們將非常尊重責任期限。

And, Brian, in terms of any specific state change that you mentioned, our product managers are looking at that at the state level.

而且，布萊恩，就您提到的任何具體狀態變化而言，我們的產品經理正在州一級關注這一變化。

They're estimating what some of the bills and changes are.

他們正在估計一些帳單和變更。

And we factor that in the pricing over time as we see those trends come in.

當我們看到這些趨勢出現時，我們就會將其納入定價中。

So if there's a new reg out there and we think it's meaningful, we certainly are going to take an estimate at that and how it plays out in the marketplace.

因此，如果有一個新的法規，並且我們認為它有意義，我們當然會對其進行評估以及它在市場上的表現。

Terrific, thanks.

太棒了，謝謝。

And, Alan, second question is, you all have seen some great growth in your E&S capabilities and clearly seems like you're building those out.

艾倫，第二個問題是，你們都已經看到你們的 E&S 能力取得了巨大的成長，並且顯然你們正在建立這些能力。

I'm just curious, you've typically been known as kind of the largest standard commercial lines and admitted market player in the US.

我只是好奇，你們通常被認為是美國最大的標準商業銀行和公認的市場參與者。

Why kind of use the sudden change, or asset's unchanged but that kind of gradual change of strategy here towards more focus on the E&S markets.

為什麼要使用突然的變化，或資產不變，但這種逐漸改變的策略，更關注 E&S 市場。

And do you think this continues here for the Travelers that E&S will become a larger and larger percentage of your overall, call it, commercial business mix?

您認為對於旅行者來說，這種情況是否會繼續下去，E&S 將在您的整體（稱之為商業業務組合）中佔據越來越大的比例？

I would -- so, Brian, we are predominantly a standard lines writer and we will continue to be that for the foreseeable future.

我會 - 所以，布萊恩，我們主要是標準台詞作家，並且在可預見的未來我們將繼續這樣做。

We're not changing our stripes here.

我們不會改變這裡的條紋。

And we've had substantial enough capability for a very long time.

我們長期以來一直擁有足夠強大的能力。

So for a long time, a lot of our national property business has been written on E&S.

所以長期以來，我們國家的房地產業務很多都是寫在E&S上的。

Paper, we've got our board feel hold E&S business.

紙上，我們的董事會認為持有 E&S 業務。

We've got our Lloyd's business.

我們有勞合社的業務。

Some of what we do in our bond & specialty business is written on the E&S paper.

我們在債券和特種業務中所做的一些工作都寫在 E&S 文件上。

So it's been a capability that we've had for a long time.

所以這是我們長期以來一直擁有的能力。

And there has been been ebbs and flows of business in and out of E&S for a long time.

長期以來，E&S 的業務進出情況一直在波動。

And so, part of this is what's been flowing into it ind our ability to capture it.

因此，其中一部分是流入它的東西以及我們捕捉它的能力。

In addition, as we've seen an attractive E&S opportunity, we've leaned into it a little bit.

此外，由於我們看到了一個有吸引力的 E&S 機會，因此我們對它進行了一些傾斜。

So I think what we've done with Fidelis and our acquisition of Corvus, and those have been contributors, too.

所以我認為我們對 Fidelis 所做的事情以及對 Corvus 的收購，這些也都是貢獻者。

So this isn't a change in stripes by any stretch of the imagination, but there's an opportunity up there and we're participating in it at very attractive margins.

因此，這並不是任何想像中的條紋變化，但那裡有一個機會，我們正在以非常有吸引力的利潤參與其中。

Great, helpful.

太棒了，有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶·希爾茲，KBW。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks and good morning.

謝謝，早安。

I guess, first question, I'm not sure who this is best sent to, but does the Supreme Court's overturning the Chevron doctrine, how does that impact exposure for various casualty lines?

我想，第一個問題，我不確定這最好發送給誰，但是最高法院推翻了雪佛龍原則，這對各種傷亡線的曝光有何影響？

I don't really know how to answer that, to be honest, Meyer.

老實說，我真的不知道該如何回答這個問題，邁耶。

And we'll see over time whether there's any significant impact at all from Chevron.

隨著時間的推移，我們將看到雪佛龍是否會產生重大影響。

I mean, I hesitate to speculate on that at all and maybe it depends on who the regulators are in place and how that changes from one administration to the next.

我的意思是，我根本不願意對此進行推測，也許這取決於監管機構是誰以及從一屆政府到下一屆政府的變化如何。

But I'm trying to decide whether I want to answer this off the top of my head or not, because it's not something that we've really rung our hands over.

但我正在努力決定是否要立即回答這個問題，因為這不是我們真正需要解決的問題。

But if you imagine that regulatory activity is a contributor to loss activity, the impact of that decision on the Chevron document, you'd expect might be a good guy, frankly.

但如果你認為監管活動是造成損失活動的一個因素，即該決定對雪佛龍文件的影響，那麼坦白說，你會認為監管活動可能是個好人。

But I think it's too early for us to make that call.

但我認為現在做出這樣的決定還為時過早。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，很公平。

The second question, I guess, this is for Michael.

我想，第二個問題是問麥可的。

When you look at the sort of potential outcomes for non-catastrophe weather and catastrophe losses, do you think of those as being inversely related or unrelated?

當您考慮非災難性天氣和災難性損失的潛在結果時，您認為它們是負相關還是無關？

Meyer, I think it depends on the quarter.

邁耶，我認為這取決於季度。

The non-cat weather in personal insurance sometimes will see a benefit because much of the weather gets classified as a cat.

個人保險中的非貓天氣有時會帶來好處，因為大部分天氣都被歸類為貓天氣。

That actually was the case in the second quarter of last year.

事實上，去年第二季的情況就是如此。

That was less so the case this year.

今年的情況有所減少。

When we talked about the underlying result this quarter, I talked about the fact that it was really fire and non-weather water losses, just to put a point on it and really didn't talk about non-cat weather, because in this quarter, it really -- we had both elevated catastrophes and we had about what we expected from a non-cat weather standpoint.

當我們談論本季度的基本結果時，我談到了實際上是火災和非天氣水損失這一事實，只是為了強調這一點，並且實際上沒有談論非貓天氣，因為在本季度，確實如此——我們都經歷了嚴重的災難，從非貓天氣的角度來看，我們也經歷了我們所期望的情況。

So, in some cases, you'll see a little bit of an inverse relationship depending upon sort of the footprint of the weather and how significant the events are.

因此，在某些情況下，您會看到一些反向關係，這取決於天氣足跡的類型以及事件的重要性。

But they're not always inversely related or directly related for that matter.

但就此事而言，它們並不總是負相關或直接相關。

I mean, it was a little bit of a factor for us this quarter in business insurance.

我的意思是，這對我們本季的商業保險來說是一個影響因素。

Not huge, but it did have an impact this quarter.

雖然影響不大，但確實對本季產生了影響。

And so, when we do think about our weather, obviously, we're managing it as one, but there's a lot of what we would report favorably or unfavorably in small weather that you would see in the catastrophe line of some of our peers.

因此，當我們確實考慮我們的天氣時，顯然，我們正在將其作為一個整體進行管理，但是在小天氣中，我們會報告很多有利或不利的情況，您會在我們的一些同行的災難線上看到這些情況。

Okay, that's perfect.

好吧，那就完美了。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

邁克·扎倫斯基 (Mike Zaremski)，BMO。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Just stepping back and thinking about the competitive environment in commercial lines, maybe a little more focused on business insurance, but maybe not, would you expect current pricing power trends and maybe for the industry to kind of be stable or would you expect kind of an upward sloping trend if indeed Travelers is kind of ahead of others in terms of being proactive on loss trends, especially on the casualty side?

退後一步，思考一下商業領域的競爭環境，也許會更關注商業保險，但也許不會，您是否期望當前的定價能力趨勢，也許該行業會保持穩定，或者您是否會期望如果旅行者在主動在因應損失趨勢方面（特別是在傷亡方面）確實領先於其他人，那麼趨勢呈上升趨勢？

Hey, Mike, I think we're going to try very hard not to give outlook on pricing.

嘿，麥克，我想我們會盡力不給出定價前景。

But I will say that from here, we would expect renewal price change continue to be positive and strong and, in particular, driven by casualty.

但我要說的是，從這裡開始，我們預計續保價格變化將繼續積極且強勁，特別是在傷亡的推動下。

Now, whether that means up a little bit or down a little bit, in one line or another, I don't really know.

現在，這是否意味著向上一點或向下一點，無論是一行還是另一行，我真的不知道。

But I would say we expect it to remain relatively strong.

但我想說，我們預計它會保持相對強勁。

Yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty out there and you've heard from others about their experience in the casualty lines.

是的，那裡有很多不確定性，你也從其他人那裡聽說過他們在傷亡方面的經歷。

As we look at the schedule Ps, honestly, we expect there to be more of that coming from the industry.

當我們查看時間表時，老實說，我們預計會有更多這樣的內容來自業界。

When we look at our position relative to the industry position, we would expect there to be more coming from the industry.

當我們考慮我們相對於行業的地位時，我們預計會有更多來自行業的變化。

So I would say positive and strong, particularly driven by casualty.

所以我想說的是積極和強大，特別是在傷亡的推動下。

Got it.

知道了。

And quick follow-up, and I wish there was a live transcript.

并快速跟進，我希望有一個現場記錄。

There's not because of this global IT issue, but I felt, Dan, that you've made some prepared remarks that were a bit longer and you talked about kind of underlying profitability and consistency.

這並不是因為這個全球 IT 問題，但我覺得，丹，你已經做了一些準備好的評論，但時間有點長，並且你談到了潛在的盈利能力和一致性。

Is there -- can you unpack what was the message you were trying to convey to us and investors?

您能解釋一下您試圖向我們和投資者傳達的訊息是什麼嗎？

Are you trying to tell us to focus kind of more on the underlying loss ratio and less on kind of PYD levels or am I misunderstanding what you meant by that?

您是否試圖告訴我們更多地關注基本損失率，而不是 PYD 水平，或者我是否誤解了您的意思？

Hello, Mike, so thanks for listening.

你好，麥克，感謝您的聆聽。

I think the main gist was sort of, there was a period of time where underlying underwriting income was a pretty steady level.

我認為主要要點是，在一段時間內，基本承保收入處於相當穩定的水平。

And it was a long period of time.

那是很長一段時間。

And that was a period of time when written premium growth was sort of ticking around low single digits for a fair amount of time.

在那段時期，承保保費成長在相當長的一段時間內一直在較低的個位數附近徘徊。

And then, when we started to accelerate the rate of top-line growth again around 2016, and did it at consistent margins, the point was, that just translated into a much bigger base of pretty reliable underlying underwriting income.

然後，當我們在 2016 年左右開始再次加快營收成長率，並保持穩定的利潤率時，重點是，這只是轉化為一個更大的相當可靠的基礎承保收入基礎。

You can't quite go so far as to say it's just going to come in like the tide, but you look at the last five years where we -- before 2020, we had never reached $2 billion in after-tax underlying underwriting income.

你不能說它會像潮水一樣湧來，但你看看過去五年，在 2020 年之前，我們的稅後基礎承保收入從未達到 20 億美元。

We crossed $2 billion in 2020 and stayed there.

2020 年，我們的營收突破了 20 億美元，並保持在這個水平。

Then we crossed $3 billion in 2023.

然後我們在 2023 年突破了 30 億美元。

And in the first half of the year, we're up 30-something percent compared to that.

與此相比，今年上半年我們成長了 30% 左右。

So it was -- I sometimes think that people don't think of us as having grown, but really the underlying earnings power of the franchise is just in a completely different ballpark than it was five or six years ago.

事情就是這樣——我有時認為人們並不認為我們已經成長，但實際上特許經營權的潛在盈利能力與五、六年前完全不同。

And that's the important point, Mike.

這就是重點，麥克。

When you look at the various things that impact the bottom line, underlying underwriting income has been a much bigger, much more reliable contributor to that.

當你檢視影響利潤的各種因素時，你會發現基礎核保收入對此的貢獻更大、更可靠。

And when you think about the earnings power of the Travelers, that's an important contributor.

當你考慮旅行者的獲利能力時，你會發現這是一個重要的貢獻者。

And, well, I'll leave it at that.

而且，好吧，我就這樣吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bob Wang, Morgan Stanley.

鮑伯王，摩根士丹利。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Just maybe on workers comp a little bit, obviously, the California benchmark rate decreased by 2%.

顯然，加州基準利率下降了 2%。

As we think about more and more people go back to work, cost of medical inflation going up, can you maybe talk about the dynamics between your pricing, your severity, as well as your frequency and how we should think about the $300 million relief this quarter, and then also just the overall reserving position for the book on workers' comp.

當我們考慮越來越多的人重返工作崗位、醫療通膨成本上升時，您能否談談您的定價、嚴重程度和頻率之間的動態，以及我們應該如何考慮這 3 億美元的救濟季度，然後還有關於工人補償的書的總體保留位置。

That's a lot there, Bob, and I'm not -- honestly, I'm not sure what the question is.

鮑勃，問題就這麼多了，而我——老實說，我不確定問題是什麼。

The workers' comp book continues to be extraordinarily attractive.

工人補償帳簿仍然極具吸引力。

We are the market leader and very good at it.

我們是市場領導者並且非常擅長。

We like the business.

我們喜歡這個行業。

We like the returns.

我們喜歡回報。

We feel great about the balance sheet position.

我們對資產負債表狀況感覺良好。

I mean, if there's a specific question there, let me know so we can be responsive.

我的意思是，如果有具體問題，請告訴我，以便我們做出回應。

Yeah, yeah, sorry.

是啊，是啊，對不起。

Maybe it got cut off.

也許它被切斷了。

I'm just trying to get a better understanding of, given where the rates are, given where medical cost inflations are going, which is increased, right?

我只是想更好地了解，鑑於利率在哪裡，考慮到醫療費用通膨的走向，這是增加的，對嗎？

And given that frequency, or at least from the fact that more and more people are going back to the office, should we expect frequency to go up?

考慮到這個頻率，或至少從越來越多的人返回辦公室的事實來看，我們是否應該期望頻率會上升？

Should we expect severity to go up from here?

我們是否應該預期嚴重程度會從現在開始上升？

How do you think about -- after you take the $300 million of workers' comp reserve release this quarter, how should we think about just the ongoing reserve position of that book?

您如何看待本季發布的 3 億美元工人補償儲備金後，我們該如何考慮該書的持續儲備金頭寸？

That's where I'm trying to get to.

這就是我想要達到的目標。

Yeah.

是的。

So, I mean, we've had favorable development in the workers' comp line for many, many, many quarters now.

所以，我的意思是，我們的工人補償線現在已經在很多很多個季度取得了良好的發展。

And I don't know what it's going to be next quarter or the quarter after that, but I can tell you that we continue to feel positively about the balance sheet reserves sitting behind the workers' comp book.

我不知道下個季度或之後的季度會是什麼，但我可以告訴你，我們仍然對工人補償帳簿後面的資產負債表準備金持積極態度。

In terms of frequency and severity, look, frequency has been on a long-term secular decline.

從頻率和嚴重程度來看，頻率一直在長期下降。

And, again, we're not going to project where that's necessarily going, but it's been on a long-term secular decline that the pandemic and the work from home that's followed it -- it's probably too early to make a call on it.

再說一次，我們不會預測這必然會走向何方，但從長期來看，疫情和隨之而來的在家工作一直在下降——現在做出決定可能還為時過早。

But at the margins, that's been probably positive.

但從邊緣來看，這可能是正面的。

And if people came back to work and it ticked up a little bit, that wouldn't be particularly troubling for us.

如果人們回到工作崗位並且情況有所好轉，那對我們來說也不會特別麻煩。

Because as we think about where frequency and severity go from here, as we've always done given the duration of the liability, we are very respectful of those two things.

因為當我們考慮頻率和嚴重性從這裡開始時，正如我們在責任期限內一直所做的那樣，我們非常尊重這兩件事。

And so we continue to book frequency and severity as if it's going to go back to long-term trend

因此，我們繼續預訂頻率和嚴重程度，就好像它將回到長期趨勢一樣

Okay got it.

好，知道了。

If I can just sneak in the last one, revolve around that New Jersey homeowner price, I know that pricing was up significantly.

如果我能偷偷地輸入最後一項，圍繞新澤西州的房主價格，我知道價格大幅上漲。

Just curious as to what's the rationale about the New Jersey's homeowner pricing increase, if there is any.

只是好奇新澤西州房主價格上漲的理由是什麼（如果有的話）。

You're asking about New Jersey homeowner price increases?

您在詢問新澤西州房主價格上漲的情況嗎？

Yes, sir.

是的先生。

I mean, pricing in homeowners, broadly, is up, driven by rate.

我的意思是，在利率的推動下，房主的定價總體上是上漲的。

New Jersey has actually been a challenging place from a homeowners' pricing standpoint.

從房主定價的角度來看，新澤西州實際上是一個充滿挑戰的地方。

And it's one of the reasons we're actually dramatically shrinking the book of business in that state.

這也是我們實際上大幅縮減該州業務規模的原因之一。

And it's really driven by the loss environment.

這實際上是由損失環境所驅動的。

So, New Jersey has been, again, a challenging environment from a loss standpoint.

因此，從損失的角度來看，新澤西州再次成為一個充滿挑戰的環境。

And the regulatory challenges there are really the driver of our need to shrink that book.

那裡的監管挑戰確實是我們需要縮小這本書的驅動力。

If we could get approval for the rate that we think we need then we'd be happy to write business there, but right now the regulatory dysfunction is a significant challenge.

如果我們能夠獲得我們認為需要的利率的批准，那麼我們很樂意在那裡開展業務，但目前監管功能失調是一個重大挑戰。

Really appreciate that.

真的很感激。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the conference back over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein for closing comments.

我現在將會議轉回阿貝·戈爾茨坦女士進行閉幕評論。

Thank you very much for joining us.

非常感謝您加入我們。

And as always, if there's any follow-up, please feel free to reach out to Investor Relations.

一如既往，如果有任何後續行動，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門。

Have a good day.

祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。