旅行家集團 (TRV) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter Results Teleconference for Travelers. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on January 19, 2024. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

早安，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加第四季旅客業績電話會議。 （操作員說明） 提醒一下，本次會議的錄製時間為 2024 年 1 月 19 日。此時，我想將會議交給投資者關係資深副總裁 Abbe Goldstein 女士。戈德斯坦女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our Fourth Quarter 2023 results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加旅客對我們 2023 年第四季業績的討論。今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務補充和網路廣播簡報。所有這些資料都可以在我們的 Travelers.com 網站的「投資者」部分找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our 3 segment presidents: Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance, Jeff Klenk, of Bond & Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance. They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take your questions.

今天發言的是董事長兼執行長 Alan Schnitzer；丹‧弗雷，財務長；我們的 3 個部門總裁：商業保險部門的 Greg Toczydlowski、債券與專業保險部門的 Jeff Klenk；和個人保險的邁克爾克萊因。他們將討論我們業務的財務表現和當前的市場環境。他們將在閱讀準備好的評論時參考網路廣播演示，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors.

在我將電話轉給艾倫之前，我想提請您注意網路廣播簡報末尾的解釋性說明。我們今天的演示包括前瞻性陳述。該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，並非對未來績效的保證。由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in the Investors section on our website.

這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 報告中的前瞻性陳述中進行了描述。我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。此外，在我們的評論或對問題的答覆中，我們可能會提到一些非公認會計準則財務指標。調節表包含在我們最近的收益新聞稿、財務補充資料和我們網站投資者部分提供的其他資料中。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

現在我想把電話轉給艾倫‧施尼策。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are very pleased to report exceptional top and bottom line results for the quarter. Core income, earnings per share and return on equity were all record highs driven by both underwriting and investment results. Our underwriting gains were broad-based.

謝謝你，阿貝。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我們非常高興地報告本季出色的營收和利潤表現。在承銷和投資績效的推動下，核心營收、每股盈餘和股本報酬率均創歷史新高。我們的承保收益基礎廣泛。

In each of our 3 segments, underlying underwriting income was higher and prior year development was favorable. Catastrophe losses were also light. Record underlying underwriting income resulted from net earned premiums of $10 billion, up more than 13% over the prior year quarter and an underlying combined ratio, which improved 5.5 points to a record 85.9%.

在我們的三個細分市場中，基礎承保收入均較高，且上一年的發展良好。災害損失也較小。創紀錄的基礎承保收入源自 100 億美元的淨已賺保費，比去年同期增長 13% 以上，基礎綜合成本率則提高 5.5 個百分點，達到創紀錄的 85.9%。

Looking at our 2 commercial segments together, the aggregate BI BSI underlying combined ratio was an excellent 85.9% for the quarter. The underlying combined ratio in Personal Insurance was coincidentally also 85.9%, an improvement of more than 10 points year-over-year. In addition, we are pleased to have delivered full year core income of $3.1 billion, generating core return on equity of 11.5%.

將我們的 2 個商業部門放在一起來看，本季 BI BSI 基礎綜合成本率總計高達 85.9%。人身保險的基礎綜合成本率也達85.9%，較去年增加10個百分點以上。此外，我們很高興實現全年核心收入 31 億美元，核心股本回報率為 11.5%。

Notwithstanding elevated industry-wide catastrophe losses earlier in the year, and a personal lines operating environment that while improving was difficult during the year.

儘管今年稍早全行業的巨災損失有所增加，而且個人險業務的經營環境在這一年中雖然改善卻很困難。

Turning to investments. Our high-quality investment portfolio continued to perform well. Generating after-tax net investment income of $645 million for the quarter and $2.4 billion for the year, driven by strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio.

轉向投資。我們的優質投資組合持續表現良好。在我們不斷增長的固定收益投資組合強勁而可靠的回報的推動下，本季稅後淨投資收入為 6.45 億美元，全年稅後淨投資收入為 24 億美元。

Our operating results, together with our strong balance sheet, enabled us to grow adjusted book value per share by 8% during the year. After making important investments in our business and returning nearly $2 billion of excess capital to shareholders, through dividends and share repurchases.

我們的經營業績以及強勁的資產負債表使我們在這一年中調整後的每股帳面價值成長了 8%。在對我們的業務進行重要投資並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還近 20 億美元的超額資本之後。

Turning to the top line. We grew net written premiums by 13% to $10 billion in the quarter. For the year, we grew net written premiums by 14% to more than $40 billion. All 3 segments contributed to our top line success. In Business Insurance, we grew net written premiums in the quarter by 14% to more than $5 billion. Renewal premium change remained high at 11.8% while retention also remained high at 87%.

轉向頂行。本季我們的淨承保保費成長了 13%，達到 100 億美元。今年，我們的淨承保保費成長了 14%，達到超過 400 億美元。所有三個細分市場都為我們的營收成功做出了貢獻。在商業保險方面，本季我們的淨承保保費成長了 14%，達到超過 50 億美元。續保費變動仍維持在 11.8% 的高位，而保留率也維持在 87% 的高位。

The combination of strong pricing and retention reflects deliberate execution on our part and the disciplined marketplace. The segment generated $672 million of new business in the quarter, which was $118 million or about 20% higher than in the prior year quarter.

強勁的定價和保留率的結合反映了我們的刻意執行和紀律嚴明的市場。該部門本季創造了 6.72 億美元的新業務，比去年同期增加了 1.18 億美元，增幅約為 20%。

In Bond & Specialty Insurance, net written premiums increased by 7% to $989 million, driven by excellent production in our surety business, where net written premiums were up 9%. Production was also strong in our management liability business. Given the attractive returns, we are very pleased with the strong production results in both of our commercial business segments.

在債券和特殊保險方面，淨承保保費增長了 7%，達到 9.89 億美元，這得益於我們擔保業務的出色生產，淨承保保費增長了 9%。我們的管理責任業務的生產也很強勁。鑑於有吸引力的回報，我們對我們兩個商業業務部門的強勁生產業績感到非常滿意。

In Personal Insurance, top line growth of 13% was driven by higher pricing. Renewal premium change was 21.2% in home and 16.7% in our auto business. Renewal premium change alone contributed more than $2 billion of written premium in this segment over the past year. With another strong production -- with another year of strong production in each of our segments, we feel very well positioned for the new year. You'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results.

在個人保險領域，定價上漲推動了 13% 的營收成長。國內續保保費變動為 21.2%，汽車業務變動為 16.7%。去年，光是續保費變動就為該細分市場貢獻了超過 20 億美元的承保保費。隨著另一個強勁的生產——隨著我們每個細分市場又一個強勁生產的一年，我們感覺自己已經為新的一年做好了準備。您很快就會從 Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 那裡聽到更多關於我們細分市場結果的資訊。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'd like to take a minute and put our 2023 results into an overtime context with an update to some data we shared previously. A half dozen or so years ago, we laid out a focused innovation strategy. Ensure that if we were successful in this execution, we would expect to grow our business at attractive returns. A reflection of our belief that any strategy to achieve industry-leading returns over time requires a strategy to grow over time.

在將電話轉給 Dan 之前，我想花一點時間將 2023 年的結果納入加班背景，並對我們之前共享的一些數據進行更新。大約六年前，我們制定了一項有針對性的創新策略。確保如果我們成功執行此操作，我們將期望以有吸引力的回報來發展我們的業務。這反映了我們的信念：任何隨著時間的推移實現行業領先回報的策略都需要一個隨著時間的推移而成長的策略。

The data on Slide 19 of the webcast presentation show the success we've achieved. Starting at the top left corner. In terms of the top line, we've grown net written premiums at a compound annual rate of 7% over the past 7 years. That's 2.5x our rate of growth from 2012 to 2016. The growth rate in each of the past 2 years was double digits, the result of a deliberate and tailored strategy, stronger pricing where we need it and a combination of pricing and unit growth where we like the opportunity.

網路廣播簡報投影片 19 上的數據顯示了我們所取得的成功。從左上角開始。就營收而言，過去 7 年我們的淨承保保費以 7% 的複合年增長率成長。這是我們從2012 年到2016 年增長率的2.5 倍。過去兩年的成長率都是兩位數，這是深思熟慮和量身定制的策略、我們需要的更強定價以及定價和單位成長相結合的結果。我們喜歡這個機會。

In Business Insurance, we've added more than $4 billion to our top line over the past 2 years. The investments we've made in capabilities to enhance the franchise value that we offer to our customers and distribution partners have contributed to strong retention and growth in new business.

在商業保險方面，過去 2 年我們的收入增加了超過 40 億美元。我們為提高向客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的特許經營價值而進行的投資，為新業務的強勁保留和成長做出了貢獻。

In Bond & Specialty, we've increased net written premiums over that period by about $0.5 billion or 14%. More than half of that growth has come from a very profitable surety business, where our market-leading position has enabled us to benefit from increased demand for bonds with higher contract values and projects resulting from the Federal Infrastructure and Jobs Act and other federal programs.

在債券和特殊保險方面，我們同期的淨承保保費增加了約 5 億美元，即 14%。其中一半以上的成長來自利潤豐厚的擔保業務，我們的市場領先地位使我們能夠從對合約價值較高的債券以及聯邦基礎設施和就業法案及其他聯邦計劃產生的項目的需求增加中受益。

Across both of our commercial segments, since 2021, we have about doubled our E&S writings to around $2.5 billion. That includes organic growth from the E&S business we write in National Property, our North field business and our Lloyd's business as well as the impact of more recent strategic efforts, which include our relationships with Fidelis and Corvus.

自 2021 年以來，我們的兩個商業領域的 E&S 著作量增加了一倍，達到約 25 億美元。這包括我們在 National Property 中撰寫的 E&S 業務、北油田業務和勞合社業務的有機增長，以及最近戰略努力的影響，其中包括我們與 Fidelis 和 Corvus 的關係。

The margins in our E&S business are quite attractive. In Personal Insurance, where margins have not been at target levels in recent periods. Net written premium growth of $3.4 billion over the past 2 years has been almost entirely a result of price increases. The PI team has done an excellent job of threading the needle, maintaining a strong customer base while achieving meaningful pricing gains.

我們的 E&S 業務的利潤率相當有吸引力。在個人保險領域，近期利潤率並未達到目標水準。過去兩年淨承保保費增加了 34 億美元，幾乎完全是價格上漲的結果。 PI 團隊在引導方面做得非常出色，維持了強大的客戶群，同時實現了有意義的定價效益。

They've also done a great job with private product management. Our advanced peril-by-peril Quantum Auto 2.0 offering now represents more than 60% of the domestic property portfolio. And adoption of our telematics product and Teledrive among new customers has been strong. With pricing gains and enhanced product sophistication, the book should contribute to our earnings power going forward as we move to our target returns.

他們在私人產品管理方面也做得很好。我們先進的逐風險量子車 2.0 產品目前佔國內房地產投資組合的 60% 以上。我們的遠端資訊處理產品和 Teledrive 在新客戶中的採用率一直很高。隨著定價的提高和產品複雜性的提高，隨著我們實現目標回報，這本書應該有助於我們未來的獲利能力。

Also important is that across all 3 segments, we've grown mostly in products, classes of business and geographies and through distribution partners that we know well. That gives us a lot of confidence in the business we're adding to the books. Moving to the right, you can see that while we've meaningfully increased our rate of growth, we've maintained very strong and consistent underlying profitability.

同樣重要的是，在所有三個細分市場中，我們的成長主要是在產品、業務類別和地理方面，以及透過我們熟悉的分銷合作夥伴實現的。這讓我們對我們添加到帳簿中的業務充滿信心。向右移動，您可以看到，雖然我們顯著提高了成長率，但我們仍然保持了非常強勁且一致的基本獲利能力。

That demonstrates that we're not growing by underpricing the business or compromising our underwriting discipline. We've grown by investing in the products, services and experiences that our customers want to buy and our distribution partners want to sell. We've also grown through a lot of great hustle and hard work on the part of our outstanding field organization. One of the clear strategic objectives of our innovation strategy has been to optimize productivity and efficiency.

這表明我們並不是透過壓低業務定價或損害承保紀律來實現成長的。我們透過投資客戶想要購買和分銷合作夥伴想要銷售的產品、服務和體驗來實現發展。我們也透過傑出的現場組織的大量努力和辛勤工作而成長。我們創新策略的明確策略目標之一是優化生產力和效率。

Moving to the top right of the slide, you can see that over the last 7 years, we've reduced our expense ratio by 3.6 points to just over 28% for 2023, which is more than a 10% reduction relative to our 2012 to 2016 expense ratio of around 32%. Enhanced operating leverage gives us the flexibility to let the benefit fall to the bottom line and/or invest further in our strategic priorities.

移至投影片右上角，您可以看到，在過去 7 年裡，我們將費用率降低了 3.6 個百分點，到 2023 年將達到 28% 以上，與 2012 年相比降低了 10% 以上。2016 年費用率約32%。增強的營運槓桿使我們能夠靈活地將收益降至底線和/或進一步投資於我們的策略重點。

Case in point, as you can see on Slide 21, since 2017, we have doubled our investments in strategic technology initiatives. Over that same period, we've carefully managed growth in routine but necessary technology expenditures. In other words, over a 7-year period, we simultaneously and meaningfully increased our technology spend, improve the strategic mix of that spend and lowered our expense ratio.

舉個例子，正如您在投影片 21 中看到的那樣，自 2017 年以來，我們對戰略技術計畫的投資增加了一倍。在同一時期，我們謹慎管理了常規但必要的技術支出的成長。換句話說，在 7 年的時間裡，我們同時有意義地增加了技術支出，改善了支出的策略組合，並降低了費用比率。

The upshot of what we've accomplished on the top half of Slide 19 is what you see on the bottom half. On the bottom left, you can see that we've increased underlying underwriting income significantly. From 2012 to 2019, underlying underwriting income averaged $1.3 billion. In 2020, we crossed the $2 billion mark, and 2023 marks the first time that we've exceeded $3 billion.

我們在投影片 19 上半部完成的結果就是您在下半部看到的結果。在左下角，您可以看到我們顯著增加了基本核保收入。 2012年至2019年，基本核保收入平均為13億美元。 2020 年，我們突破了 20 億美元大關，2023 年我們首次突破 30 億美元。

We've taken our underlying underwriting income to a meaningfully higher level. We've also significantly increased our cash flow from operations to more than $7.5 billion in 2023. The fourth consecutive year it's been more than $6 billion and more than double our average cash flow from operations in the earlier part of the last decade. Cash flow isn't a metric that we or our industry talk a lot about, but it's important. It's what gives us the ability to make important investments in our business, return excess capital to shareholders and grow the investment portfolio.

我們已將基本核保收入提高到了一個有意義的更高水準。我們也大幅增加了我們的營運現金流，到 2023 年將超過 75 億美元。連續第四年超過 60 億美元，是過去十年初期我們平均營運現金流的兩倍多。現金流並不是我們或我們的行業經常談論的指標，但它很重要。它使我們能夠對我們的業務進行重要投資，向股東返還多餘資本並擴大投資組合。

We've grown our investment portfolio significantly to nearly $93 billion. As we continue to reinvest our fixed income portfolio at higher rates, this is a highly reliable lever of earnings and value creation. To sum it up through a well-executed strategy, we've more than doubled our rate of growth, sustained strong underlying underwriting margins and meaningfully lowered our expense ratio.

我們的投資組合已大幅成長至近 930 億美元。隨著我們繼續以更高的利率對固定收益投資組合進行再投資，這是一個高度可靠的收益和價值創造槓桿。總而言之，透過執行良好的策略，我們的成長率提高了一倍以上，維持了強勁的基礎承保利潤率，並顯著降低了我們的費用率。

That has resulted in record levels of underlying underwriting income, cash flow and invested assets. Ultimately, of course, one number that brings everything together is adjusted book value per share. On Slide 20, you can see that we have steadily increased adjusted book value per share each year since 2006 at a compound annual rate of 7.5%.

這導致基礎承保收入、現金流量和投資資產達到創紀錄水準。當然，歸根結底，將所有因素結合在一起的一個數字是調整後的每股帳面價值。在投影片 20 上，您可以看到自 2006 年以來，我們每年都以 7.5% 的複合年增長率穩步增加調整後每股帳面價值。

The effective management of our capital complements that result. We've increased our capital base to support the profitable growth of our business. At the same time, we've been disciplined about returning excess capital to shareholders. Over this period, we've increased our dividend at a compound annual rate of more than 8% and returned more than $40 billion to our shareholders through share repurchases at an average price of about $74 per share.

我們資本的有效管理補充了這個結果。我們增加了資本基礎，以支持我們業務的獲利成長。同時，我們一直嚴格遵守向股東返還多餘資本的規定。在此期間，我們以超過 8% 的複合年增長率增加了股息，並以每股約 74 美元的平均價格回購股票，向股東返還了超過 400 億美元。

These results, together with our track record of strong returns and low volatility demonstrate the strength of our business and the success of our overtime strategy. Looking ahead, we're very confident about how we're positioned for 2024 and beyond. The fundamentals across our business are in excellent shape. We're confident that we're focused on the right strategic priorities and that with demonstrated success in execution, there's plenty more opportunity ahead of us. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

這些結果，加上我們強勁的回報和低波動性的記錄，證明了我們的業務實力和加班策略的成功。展望未來，我們對 2024 年及以後的定位非常有信心。我們整個業務的基本面狀況良好。我們相信，我們專注於正確的策略重點，並且在執行方面取得了成功，我們面前還有更多的機會。至此，我很高興將電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Alan. Core income for the fourth quarter was $1.6 billion, and core return on equity was 24%, both all-time record quarterly results. We're pleased to have once again generated record levels of earned premium this quarter and an excellent underlying combined ratio of 85.9%, a 5.5 point improvement from last year's quarter. The combination of premium growth and underlying margin improvement led to underlying underwriting income of $1.1 billion after tax, up $511 million or 89% from the prior year quarter.

謝謝你，艾倫。第四季核心營收為 16 億美元，核心股本回報率為 24%，均創下季度業績歷史記錄。我們很高興本季再次創造創紀錄水平的賺取保費和 85.9% 的出色基礎綜合成本率，比去年季度提高 5.5 個百分點。保費成長和基本利潤率改善相結合，稅後基本承保收入達到 11 億美元，比去年同期成長 5.11 億美元，即 89%。

The underlying combined ratio improved from the prior year in all 3 segments. The expense ratio for the fourth quarter improved by 0.5 point from last year's quarter to 27.4%, once again, reflecting the benefits of our focus on productivity and efficiency, coupled with strong top line growth. The full year expense ratio of 28.1% was our best ever.

所有三個部門的基本綜合成本率均較上年有所改善。第四季的費用率比去年同期提高了 0.5 個百分點，達到 27.4%，再次反映出我們對生產力和效率的關注所帶來的好處，以及強勁的收入成長。 28.1%的全年費用率是我們有史以來最好的。

As Alan mentioned, our focus is on operating leverage. And looking ahead to 2024, we're comfortable with the annual expense ratio in the range of 28% to 28.5% for now. Our fourth quarter results include a modest $125 million of pretax catastrophe losses with no individually significant events impacting our book of business.

正如艾倫所提到的，我們的重點是營運槓桿。展望 2024 年，我們目前對年度費用率在 28% 至 28.5% 的範圍內感到滿意。我們第四季的業績包括 1.25 億美元的稅前巨災損失，沒有影響我們業務的個別重大事件。

Turning to prior year reserve development. We had total net favorable development of $132 million pretax, with all 3 segments contributing. In Business Insurance, net favorable PYD of $56 million was driven by favorability in workers' comp that was partially offset by adverse development in umbrella and general liability. Even after the reserve charge, the returns in both umbrella and GL remain very attractive.

轉向上一年的儲備開發。我們的稅前淨有利發展總額為 1.32 億美元，所有 3 個部門都做出了貢獻。在商業保險方面，淨有利 PYD 為 5,600 萬美元，這是由工人補償的有利因素推動的，而保護傘和一般責任的不利發展部分抵消了這一影響。即使扣除準備金費用後，保護傘和 GL 的回報仍然非常有吸引力。

In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD of $36 million was driven by better-than-expected results in both surety and management liability. Personal Insurance had $40 million of net favorable PYD driven by homeowners and other. After-tax net investment income of $645 million was up 21% from the prior year quarter.

在債券和特種業務方面，擔保和管理負債方面的業績好於預期，推動了淨有利 PYD 3,600 萬美元。個人保險有 4000 萬美元的淨優惠 PYD，由房主和其他人推動。稅後淨投資收益為 6.45 億美元，比去年同期成長 21%。

Fixed maturity NII was again higher than the prior year quarter, reflecting both the benefit of higher average yields and the significant growth in our portfolio of invested assets.

固定期限NII再次高於去年同期，反映出平均殖利率上升的好處以及我們投資資產組合的顯著成長。

Returns in the non-fixed income portfolio were also higher than in the prior year quarter. In terms of our outlook for fixed income NII for 2024, including earnings from short-term securities, we expect approximately $2.6 billion after tax, beginning with approximately $630 million in the first quarter and growing to approximately $675 million in the fourth quarter.

非固定收益投資組合的報酬率也高於去年同期。就我們對 2024 年固定收益 NII 的展望（包括短期證券收益）而言，我們預計稅後約為 26 億美元，第一季約為 6.3 億美元，第四季將成長至約 6.75 億美元。

Page 22 of the webcast presentation provides information about our January 1st catastrophe reinsurance renewal. Our long-standing cat XOL treaty continues to provide coverage for both single cat events and the aggregation of losses from multiple cat events. And we've increased the amount of total coverage for 2024. Despite the growth in our property book, our attachment point remains steady, and the per occurrence loss deductible is unchanged at $100 million.

網路廣播簡報的第 22 頁提供了有關 1 月 1 日巨災再保險續保的資訊。我們長期存在的巨災 XOL 條約繼續為單一巨災事件和多巨災事件造成的損失提供承保。我們也提高了 2024 年的總承保金額。儘管我們的財產帳簿有所增長，但我們的附著點保持穩定，每次損失的免賠額保持在 1 億美元不變。

For 2024, we have placed coverage for $3.5 billion of the $4.5 billion layer above the $3.5 billion attachment point. We're pleased to have obtained the extra protection in light of the recent inflationary impact on insured values. With context, we've never hit this treaty. Nonetheless, this is prudent, affordable balance sheet protection for tail events. The cost of the additional reinsurance will be largely offset by the strong renewal pricing we continue to achieve on our direct written property premiums resulting in only a de minimis impact on the underlying combined ratio.

到 2024 年，我們將 35 億美元附著點之上 45 億美元層中的 35 億美元覆蓋。鑑於最近通貨膨脹對保險價值的影響，我們很高興獲得了額外的保障。從背景來看，我們從未達成過該條約。儘管如此，這是針對尾部事件的謹慎且負擔得起的資產負債表保護。額外再保險的成本將在很大程度上被我們繼續在直接承保財產保費上實現的強勁續保定價所抵消，從而對基本綜合成本率僅產生微乎其微的影響。

On a financial modeling note, let me turn your attention to Slide 23 of the webcast presentation. As we enter 2024, we thought it would be helpful to once again highlight the seasonality of our cat losses over the prior decade. As shown in the data, the second quarter has regularly and noticeably been our largest cat quarter. Cat losses in the second quarter had been on average, more than 3 combined ratio points higher than in any other quarter.

關於財務建模說明，請讓我將您的注意力轉向網路廣播簡報的幻燈片 23。當我們進入 2024 年時，我們認為再次強調過去十年貓損失的季節性會有所幫助。如數據所示，第二季度通常是我們最大的貓咪季度。第二季巨災損失平均比其他季度高出 3 個百分點以上。

And the second quarter has been our largest cat quarter in 7 of the past 10 years. Also of interest for 2024, in light of continued strong pricing and terms in the E&S and reinsurance markets, we are pleased to share that we have renewed the 20% quota share with Fidelis. The renewal includes the same loss ratio cap we had for 2023. The written premium volume, which will again be included as part of international within the Business Insurance segment is not expected to be material to the segment. but should have a modestly favorable impact on the underlying combined ratio for 2024 as it earns in.

過去 10 年中有 7 年第二季是我們最大的貓咪季度。鑑於 E&S 和再保險市場持續強勁的定價和條款，我們很高興與大家分享，我們已與 Fidelis 續簽了 20% 的配額份額，因此 2024 年也令人感興趣。此次續保包括與 2023 年相同的損失率上限。承保保費量將再次作為國際業務的一部分納入商業保險部門，預計對該部門不會產生重大影響。但隨著其獲利，應該會對 2024 年的基本綜合成本率產生適度有利的影響。

Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter of $2.1 billion were again very strong. And we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion. As you may have seen, S&P issued their updated capital model, and we now expect that the result of the new model will be a modest improvement in their assessment of our capital metrics. Interest rates decreased and spreads narrowed during the quarter. And as a result, our net unrealized investment loss decreased from $6.5 billion after tax at September 30 to $3.1 billion after tax at year-end.

轉向資本管理。本季營運現金流再次強勁，達 21 億美元。本季結束時，我們控股公司的流動性約為 15 億美元。正如您可能已經看到的，標準普爾發布了更新的資本模型，我們現在預計新模型的結果將是他們對我們資本指標的評估略有改善。本季利率下降，利差收窄。因此，我們的未實現投資淨損失從 9 月 30 日的稅後 65 億美元減少到年底的稅後 31 億美元。

As we've discussed previously, the changes in unrealized investment gains and losses generally do not impact how we manage our investment portfolio. We generally hold fixed income investments to maturity, the quality of our fixed income portfolio remains very high and changes in unrealized gains and losses have a little impact on our cash flows, statutory surplus or regulatory capital requirements.

正如我們之前討論的，未實現投資收益和損失的變化通常不會影響我們管理投資組合的方式。我們一般持有固定收益投資至到期日，固定收益投資組合的品質仍然很高，未實現損益的變動對我們的現金流量、法定盈餘或監理資本要求影響不大。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $122.90 at year-end, up 8% from a year ago. We returned $298 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter, comprising share repurchases of $66 million and dividends of $232 million. We have approximately $6 billion of capacity remaining under the share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors.

截至年底，調整後每股帳面價值（不包括未實現的淨投資損益）為 122.90 美元，較上年同期成長 8%。本季我們向股東返還了 2.98 億美元的資本，其中包括 6,600 萬美元的股票回購和 2.32 億美元的股息。根據董事會的股票回購授權，我們還有大約 60 億美元的剩餘產能。

Thinking about share repurchases in 2024, while there is no change in our capital management philosophy, we will factor in the need for increased capital in light of our top line growth as well as the $435 million we just deployed to complete the Corvus acquisition. Currently, we expect repurchases in the first quarter of somewhere around $250 million.

考慮到 2024 年的股票回購，雖然我們的資本管理理念沒有改變，但我們將根據我們的營收成長以及我們剛剛為完成 Corvus 收購而部署的 4.35 億美元來考慮增加資本的需求。目前，我們預計第一季的回購額約為 2.5 億美元。

Recapping our results for 2023. Core income was $3.1 billion, and core ROE was 11.5%. We delivered our highest ever levels of written premium, earned premium, underlying underwriting income and cash flow from operations. In addition, we ended the year with our all-time high in adjusted book value per share and with our largest investment portfolio ever. We've never been better positioned for the year ahead.

回顧我們 2023 年的表現。核心收入為 31 億美元，核心股本回報率為 11.5%。我們提供了有史以來最高水準的承保保費、賺取保費、基本承保收入和營運現金流。此外，我們在年底實現了調整後每股帳面價值的歷史新高，並擁有有史以來最大的投資組合。我們為未來的一年做好了前所未有的準備。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of Business Insurance.

接下來，我將把電話轉給格雷格，討論商業保險問題。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance had another strong quarter, rounding on a terrific year in terms of financial results, execution in the marketplace and progress on our strategic initiatives. Last year at this time, I indicated that we were firing on all cylinders, and that certainly remains the case today. Segment income for the quarter was $957 million, our highest quarter ever and up well over $200 million from the prior year quarter, driven by higher underlying underwriting income and net investment income as well as lower catastrophes.

謝謝，丹。商業保險業務又經歷了一個強勁的季度，在財務業績、市場執行力和策略性舉措進展方面都取得了出色的一年。去年的這個時候，我表示我們正在全力以赴，今天的情況仍然如此。該季度的分部收入為 9.57 億美元，是我們有史以來最高的季度，比去年同期增長了 2 億多美元，這得益於較高的基礎承保收入和淨投資收入以及較低的災難。

The all-in combined ratio of 86.5% was a great result, and we're once again particularly pleased with our exceptional underlying combined ratio of 86.8% and an all-time best result. The underlying loss ratio improved by almost 2.5 points from the prior year quarter, with the drivers of the improvement, including the benefit of earned pricing a mix shift to the property line and an impact from non-cat weather that was modestly favorable to both the prior year and our expectations.

86.5% 的總綜合成本率是一個很好的結果，我們再次對我們 86.8% 的卓越基礎綜合成本率和歷史最佳結果感到特別滿意。基本損失率比去年同期提高了近 2.5 個百分點，改善的驅動因素包括贏得定價的好處、向房地產線的混合轉移以及非貓天氣的影響，這對雙方都有利去年和我們的期望。

The expense ratio remained excellent at 28.8%. Net written premiums for the quarter were up 14% from the prior year to a fourth quarter record of $5 billion, benefiting from high retention, strong renewal premium change and an increase in new business levels. As Alan mentioned, given the attractive margins in this segment, we're very pleased with this growth.

費用比率仍維持在28.8%的優異水準。該季度的淨承保保費較上年同期增長 14%，達到第四季度創紀錄的 50 億美元，受益於高保留率、強勁的續保保費變化以及新業務水平的提高。正如艾倫所提到的，鑑於該領域具有吸引力的利潤，我們對這種增長感到非常滿意。

Turning to domestic production for the quarter. Renewal premium change was once again historically high at 11.8%, with renewal rate change of 7.4% and continued strong growth and exposure. Renewal rate change increased from the third quarter in select and middle market, however, ticked down at the segment level, driven almost entirely by a lower mix of national property written premium in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter.

轉向本季的國內生產。續保費變化再次創下歷史新高，達到 11.8%，續保費率變化為 7.4%，並持續強勁成長和風險敞口。精選和中型市場的續保率變化自第三季度開始有所增加，但在細分市場層面有所下降，這幾乎完全是由於第四季度全國房地產保費組合低於第三季度所致。

Retention remained excellent at 87% and new business of $672 million was the strongest fourth quarter we've ever produced. We're thrilled with these production results and our field superior execution in the marketplace. In terms of pricing, we're pleased to be able to sustain strong levels of renewal premium change to address the persistent environmental headwinds. As for renewal rate change, during the quarter, we achieved meaningful renewal rate increases in all lines other than workers' comp.

保留率仍然保持在 87% 的出色水平，新業務達 6.72 億美元，是我們有史以來最強勁的第四季度業務。我們對這些生產成果以及我們在市場上的卓越執行力感到非常興奮。在定價方面，我們很高興能夠維持強勁的續保保費變化水平，以應對持續存在的環境阻力。至於續訂率變化，本季度，我們在除工人補償之外的所有產品線中實現了有意義的續約率成長。

The property, umbrella and auto lines led the way. Renewal rate change in each of the casualty lines was comparable or better than the third quarter. And given our high-quality book as well as several years of meaningful price increases and improvements in terms and conditions, we're very pleased to continue to produce historically strong retention levels.

房地產、雨傘和汽車產品線引領潮流。每個傷亡險種的續保率變化與第三季相當或更好。鑑於我們的高品質圖書以及多年來有意義的價格上漲以及條款和條件的改進，我們非常高興能夠繼續保持歷史上強勁的保留水平。

As for the individual businesses, in select, renewal premium change remained strong at 11.9%, up more than 1.5 points from the third quarter driven by renewal rate change, which increased to 4.1% for the quarter. Even with strong pricing, retention remained very strong at 85%. New business was up $49 million from the prior year quarter driven in large part by the continued success of our BOP 2.0 product.

就個別業務而言，在特定業務中，續保費變化依然強勁，達到11.9%，在續保費率變化的推動下，比第三季度上升了1.5 個百分點以上，本季續保費率變化增加至4.1%。即使定價很高，保留率仍然很高，達到 85%。新業務較去年同期成長了 4,900 萬美元，這在很大程度上得益於我們的 BOP 2.0 產品的持續成功。

In middle market, renewal premium change of 10.4% and retention of 90% remained historically strong. New business of $348 million was an all-time best fourth quarter result. As we close out 2023, let me provide a little color on full year results before turning the call over to Jeff. Segment income was nearly $2.6 billion, an exceptional result. The underlying combined ratio of 88.9%, top line of $20.4 billion. Renewal premium change, retention and new business premiums were all record results. These results are a direct reflection of our successful execution of our thoughtful and deliberate strategies.

在中間市場，續保保費變動 10.4%，保留率維持在歷史最高水準。新業務 3.48 億美元是第四季歷史最佳業績。在 2023 年即將結束之際，讓我先介紹全年業績，然後再將電話轉交給傑夫。部門收入接近 26 億美元，這是一個出色的業績。基礎綜合成本率為 88.9%，營收為 204 億美元。續保費變動、保留保費和新業務保費均創歷史新高。這些結果直接反映了我們成功執行深思熟慮的策略。

And while delivering these financial and production results, we've also continued to invest in strategic capabilities that will enhance our many competitive advantages. For example, during the year, we continued to advance our data and analytics capabilities by leveraging evolving technologies, including AI, and new data sources to help us manage the portfolio and equip our frontline underwriters with data and insights to better enable our risk selection, underwriting and pricing.

在實現這些財務和生產成果的同時，我們也持續投資於策略能力，這將增強我們的許多競爭優勢。例如，在這一年中，我們透過利用人工智慧等不斷發展的技術和新資料來源，繼續提高我們的數據和分析能力，幫助我們管理投資組合，並為我們的第一線承銷商提供數據和見解，以更好地支持我們的風險選擇，承銷和定價。

In addition, we continued to advance our already state-of-the-art product and service capabilities by continuing to roll out our BOP 2.0 product, which is now live in all but a couple of states as well as our new commercial auto product, which is now live in 14 states.

此外，我們繼續推出 BOP 2.0 產品，繼續提升我們已經最先進的產品和服務能力，該產品現已在除幾個州外的所有州以及我們的新商用汽車產品上使用，目前已在14 個州上線。

Both products deliver industry-leading segmentation and user experiences. In addition, we continue to make progress on developing other industry-leading user experience capabilities to make it easier and more efficient for our distribution partners and customers to do business with us. In particular, in our middle market business, we advanced our capabilities around digitizing the underwriting transaction for our agents and brokers.

這兩款產品都提供業界領先的細分和用戶體驗。此外，我們繼續在開發其他領先業界的用戶體驗功能方面取得進展，使我們的分銷合作夥伴和客戶能夠更輕鬆、更有效率地與我們開展業務。特別是，在我們的中間市場業務中，我們提高了代理商和經紀人承銷交易數位化的能力。

In our Small Commercial business, we continued to roll out our new front-end rate quote and issue interface platform to make it faster and easier for our agents to write business with us, while maintaining all the underwriting discipline and specialization behind the scenes. And finally, we continued to improve our operating leverage through our relentless focus on productivity and efficiency. We're proud of these extraordinary results in the best-in-class team that produce them.

在我們的小型商業業務中，我們繼續推出新的前端費率報價和問題介面平台，使我們的代理商能夠更快、更輕鬆地與我們簽訂業務，同時在幕後保持所有承保紀律和專業化。最後，我們透過不懈地關註生產力和效率，繼續提高我們的營運槓桿。我們為一流團隊所取得的這些非凡成果感到自豪。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

這樣，我就把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty ended a strong 2023 with a terrific quarter on both the top and bottom lines. Segment income was $240 million, up 9% from the prior year quarter. delivered very strong underlying underwriting income and an outstanding underlying combined ratio of 80.6%. Turning to the top line. We grew net written premiums by 7% in the quarter. In our high-quality domestic management liability business, we again delivered excellent retention of 90%, in line with the prior year quarter, while continuing to achieve positive renewal premium change.

謝謝，格雷格。 Bond & Specialty 為 2023 年的強勁業績畫上了句號，該季度的營收和利潤均表現出色。部門營收為 2.4 億美元，比去年同期成長 9%。提供了非常強勁的基礎核保收入和 80.6% 的優秀基礎綜合成本率。轉向頂行。本季我們的淨承保保費增加了 7%。在我們高品質的國內管理責任業務中，我們再次實現了 90% 的出色保留率，與去年同期一致，同時繼續實現積極的續保保費變化。

New business was up driven by a new domestic cyber capacity agreement with Corvus. Surety net written premiums increased 9%, reflecting continued strong demand for surety bonds. So we're pleased to have once again delivered terrific top and bottom line results this quarter, capping off a year during which we generated record segment income and net written premium.

與 Corvus 簽訂的新的國內網路容量協議推動了新業務的成長。擔保淨承保保費成長 9%，反映出對擔保債券的持續強勁需求。因此，我們很高興本季再次取得了出色的頂線和底線業績，為我們創造了創紀錄的分部收入和淨保費的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。

Finally, we're pleased that earlier this month, we closed our previously announced acquisition of Corvus Insurance. Corvus is an industry-leading cyber insurance managing general underwriter, powered by proprietary technology. Corvus has developed cutting-edge capabilities, including digitally integrated cyber sales, underwriting, service and support, sophisticated underwriting algorithms and advanced vulnerability scanning.

最後，我們很高興本月稍早完成了先前宣布的對 Corvus Insurance 的收購。 Corvus 是一家業界領先的網路保險管理總承保商，由專有技術提供支援。 Corvus 開發了尖端能力，包括數位整合的網路銷售、承保、服務和支援、複雜的承保演算法和先進的漏洞掃描。

Corvus also brings deep cyber underwriting and risk management expertise, and we're pleased to welcome them to the Travelers family. This acquisition affords us the opportunity to write Corvus' profitable book of business which will be reflected as new business in our production results over the course of 2024.

Corvus 也帶來了深厚的網路核保和風險管理專業知識，我們很高興歡迎他們加入 Travelers 大家庭。此次收購為我們提供了書寫 Corvus 獲利業務的機會，這將作為新業務反映在我們 2024 年的生產業績中。

And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

現在我將把電話轉給麥可。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share that Personal Insurance generated $520 million of fourth quarter segment income, strong results and a significant improvement compared to the prior year quarter, due to higher underlying underwriting income and lower catastrophe losses. The underlying combined ratio of 85.9% improved over 10 points compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting improvements in both Automobile and Homeowners and Other.

謝謝傑夫，大家早安。我很高興地與大家分享，由於基礎承保收入增加和巨災損失減少，個人保險第四季度分部收入達到 5.2 億美元，業績強勁，與去年同期相比有了顯著改善。基本綜合成本率為 85.9%，與去年同期相比提高了 10 個百分點以上，反映出汽車、房主和其他業務的改善。

Net written premiums grew 13%, driven by continued elevated levels of renewal premium change in both Auto and Home bringing full year net written premiums to a record of nearly $16 billion. In automobile, the fourth quarter combined ratio was 103.6%. The underlying combined ratio of 102.7% improved nearly 8 points compared to the prior year quarter.

在汽車和家庭續保保費變化水準持續上升的推動下，淨承保保費增加了 13%，使全年淨承保保費達到近 160 億美元的創紀錄水準。汽車方面，第四季綜合成本率為103.6%。基礎綜合成本率為 102.7%，與去年同期相比提高了近 8 個百分點。

This improvement was driven by the benefit of higher earned pricing. To a lesser extent, it also benefited from the year-over-year impact of a modest favorable re-estimation of prior quarters in the current year compared to a modest unfavorable re-estimation in the prior year quarter.

這項改進是由更高的定價帶來的好處所推動的。在較小程度上，它也受益於今年前幾季適度有利的重新估計與去年同期適度不利的重新估計所帶來的同比影響。

In Homeowners and Other, the fourth quarter combined ratio of 70.8% improved by over 28 points, reflecting catastrophe losses that were favorable to both the prior year quarter and our expectations and an improved underlying combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio improved 12.5 points, primarily due to non-catastrophe weather-related losses that were favorable to both the prior year and our expectations and the impact of earned pricing.

在房主及其他方面，第四季度綜合成本率為 70.8%，提高了 28 個百分點以上，反映出災難性損失有利於上一年季度和我們的預期，並且基礎綜合成本率有所改善。基本綜合成本率提高了 12.5 個百分點，主要是由於與上一年和我們的預期均有利的非災難性天氣相關損失以及贏得定價的影響。

Turning to production. Our results demonstrate our continued disciplined execution of rate and non-rate actions to improve profitability and manage growth. In domestic automobile retention remained consistent. Renewal premium change of 16.7% remains strong and as expected, moderated from the third quarter of 2023, as the majority of our book reached rate adequacy on a written basis.

轉向生產。我們的業績表明，我們持續嚴格執行利率和非利率行動，以提高獲利能力和管理成長。國內汽車保有量保持一致。 16.7% 的續保保費變化仍然強勁，正如預期的那樣，自 2023 年第三季開始有所放緩，因為我們的大部分帳簿都達到了書面費率充足性。

We expect renewal premium change to remain in the mid-teens through the first half of 2024 as we continue to assess the environment and seek rate on a state-by-state basis as appropriate. We're pleased to note that auto new business increased relative to the prior year quarter, as we tempered our non-rate actions in states where we've achieved written rate adequacy. We will continue to evaluate our non-rate measures as more states reach adequacy throughout 2024.

我們預計，到 2024 年上半年，續保保費變化將保持在十幾歲左右，因為我們將繼續評估環境並根據各州情況酌情尋求費率。我們很高興地註意到，汽車新業務相對於去年同期有所增加，因為我們在已實現書面利率充足的州調整了非利率行動。隨著更多州在 2024 年達到充足水平，我們將繼續評估我們的非利率措施。

In Homeowners and Other, retention remained consistent even as renewal premium change reached a record level at 21.2%, primarily driven by higher renewal rate change. As we noted last quarter, we expect homeowners' renewal premium change to moderate to low double digits in 2024. We will continue to see great increases in response to elevated loss levels. But at the same time, our automatic increase in limit factors will return to more normal levels, reflecting the progress we've made on aligning insured values with replacement costs.

在房主和其他方面，即使續保保費變化達到 21.2% 的創紀錄水平，保留率仍然保持一致，這主要是由較高的續保率變化推動的。正如我們上季度指出的那樣，我們預計 2024 年房主的續保保費將溫和至兩位數的低水平。我們將繼續看到因損失水平上升而大幅增加。但同時，我們限制因素的自動增加將恢復到更正常的水平，這反映了我們在使保險價值與重置成本保持一致方面取得的進展。

Our continued efforts to manage new business flow and thoughtfully deploy capacity in the face of market dislocation drove the year-over-year decline in homeowners new business and policies enforced during the quarter. We anticipate this trend will continue as we take further actions to improve profitability and manage growth in property.

面對市場混亂，我們持續努力管理新業務流並深思熟慮地部署產能，導致本季房主新業務和執行的政策同比下降。我們預計，隨著我們採取進一步行動提高獲利能力並管理房地產成長，這一趨勢將持續下去。

In 2023, we made notable progress on improving the underlying fundamentals of our business and are moving towards our goal of delivering target returns. While the environment remains dynamic, we're confident we're on a path to generating leading returns in personal insurance and growing profitably over time.

2023年，我們在改善業務基本面方面取得了顯著進展，並朝著實現目標回報的目標邁進。儘管環境仍然充滿活力，但我們有信心在個人保險領域創造領先的回報並隨著時間的推移實現盈利增長。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

現在我將把電話轉回阿貝。

Thanks very much. We're happy to open up for your questions.

非常感謝。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）。你的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I just had a question on the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio. And if you could size the components of the improvement between earned pricing above trend the light non-cat weather as well as the property mix shift?

我剛剛對商業保險的基本損失率有疑問。如果您可以衡量贏得價格高於趨勢、無貓天氣的輕微變化以及房地產組合變化之間的改善組成部分？

David, it's Dan. So we're not going to put numbers on them. But price versus trend has been favorable throughout the last couple of years and was favorable again this quarter. A little bit of a mix shift towards property, as Greg said, and modestly favorable non-cat weather impact, not huge but worth to mention, but we're not going to put numbers on each of those.

大衛，我是丹。所以我們不會給他們數字。但價格與趨勢在過去幾年中一直有利，本季再次有利。正如格雷格所說，有一點混合轉向房地產，以及適度有利的非貓天氣影響，雖然不是很大，但值得一提，但我們不會對每一個都給出數字。

Got it. And then I think it's been 5 of the last 7 quarters or something like that where you guys called out the general liability umbrella as areas of reserve increases in business insurance. I'm wondering if we could get a little bit more detail about exactly what you guys are seeing and reacting to, and if you think we're closer to the end of some of these true-ups?

知道了。然後我認為過去 7 個季度中有 5 個季度或類似的情況，你們都在呼喚一般責任保護傘，因為商業保險的準備金領域有所增加。我想知道我們是否可以更詳細地了解你們所看到的和做出的反應，以及你們是否認為我們已經接近其中一些真實事件的結束？

Sure, David. It's Dan again. So not big, big movements this quarter, more of the same, more of what we've sort of been talking about the last couple of quarters, which is no surprises in terms of the themes of the things that we're seeing come through those numbers, but the magnitude has been a little greater than we had allowed for previously, and we're just looking at the data that comes in every quarter and try to make sure we stay as current with it as we can. And so a modest reaction to keep up with that, but nothing really new.

當然，大衛。又是丹。因此，本季度沒有大的變動，更多的是相同的，更多的是我們過去幾個季度一直在談論的內容，就我們所看到的事情的主題而言，這並不奇怪這些數字，但幅度比我們之前允許的要大一些，我們只是查看每季的數據，並盡力確保我們盡可能掌握最新數據。因此，為了跟上這一點，我們做出了適度的反應，但並不是什麼新鮮事。

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的格雷格彼得斯 (Greg Peters)。

Well, first of all, you had a great fourth quarter, so congratulations. But I wanted to focus on Slide 7, the return on equity slide and you guys have all mapped out really a pretty strong outlook. And I guess I'm trying to reconcile what is looks to be a very pretty good outlook with the fact that your ROE is running below where I think it should be.

好吧，首先，你在第四季度的表現非常出色，所以恭喜你。但我想專注於投影片 7，也就是股本回報率投影片，你們都已經制定了非常強勁的前景。我想我正在努力調和看起來非常不錯的前景與您的股本回報率低於我認為應有的水平這一事實。

I feel like the ROE should be running higher. So maybe, Alan, you can provide some perspectives because I know the ROE is an important factor that you guys look at.

我覺得ROE應該要更高一些。艾倫，也許你可以提供一些觀點，因為我知道交戰報酬率是你們關注的重要因素。

Greg, it's Dan. I'll start. So look, 11.5% for ROE for a full year, pretty good number, another year, double digits, well above our cost of capital, and the risk-free rate, not quite where we'd like it to be. And I think the biggest contributor, and as you called out, Slide 7 is that yellow bar from the contribution from underwriting really impacted, as we talked about, especially in the second quarter and the third quarter by a very elevated level of catastrophe losses for the year.

格雷格，我是丹。我開始吧。所以看，全年 ROE 為 11.5%，相當不錯的數字，又一年，兩位數，遠高於我們的資本成本和無風險利率，並不完全是我們想要的水平。我認為最大的貢獻者，正如您所指出的，幻燈片7 是承保貢獻的黃色條確實受到了影響，正如我們所討論的，特別是在第二季度和第三季度，巨災損失水平非常高。那一年。

That's not what we expect to be the new normal run rate. We're certainly factoring more recent cat experience into our view of cat expectations going forward, but we wouldn't expect it to be elevated at that level.

這不是我們預期的新常態運作率。我們當然會將最近的貓經驗納入我們對貓未來期望的看法中，但我們不希望它會提高到這個水平。

Greg, it's Alan. The other thing I would add to that is I won't tell you would do, but one of the things I do every quarter is try to take a stab at normalizing these things. And so eliminate prior year development and put in for cats, whatever you think is a normalized cat number and then you get a different perspective.

格雷格，我是艾倫。我要補充的另一件事是，我不會告訴你會做什麼，但我每季做的一件事就是嘗試讓這些事情正常化。因此，消除前一年的發展並放入貓中，無論您認為是標準化的貓數量，然後您都會得到不同的觀點。

Right. Okay. And then Dan, I just wanted to go back to your comments about share repurchase and uses of capital. I know you talked about the expectation for what's going to happen in the first quarter, and you talked about capital. Are there any other things you'd like to call out in terms of capital allocation outside of dividends and share repurchase.

正確的。好的。然後丹，我只想回到你關於股票回購和資本使用的評論。我知道你談到了對第一季將會發生的事情的預期，也談到了資本。除了股利和股票回購之外，在資本配置方面您還有什麼其他想要指出的事情嗎？

Let me start with that, and then I'll see what observations Dan has on that. So I think we've said for a very long time, our first objective for every dollar of capital we generate is to invest it back in the business when we think we can do that and achieve our objectives and contribute to shareholder value.

讓我從這個開始，然後我會看看丹對此有何評論。因此，我認為我們長期以來一直在說，我們產生的每一美元資本的首要目標是，當我們認為我們可以做到這一點並實現我們的目標並為股東價值做出貢獻時，將其投資回業務。

But we think we've got a long track record that demonstrates our discipline with shareholders' capital. And so we're going to invest the money back in the business when we can and that could be keeping capital on the balance sheet to support profitable growth. It could be buying things like Corvus.

但我們認為，我們擁有悠久的業績記錄，證明了我們對股東資本的紀律。因此，我們將在可能的情況下將資金重新投入到業務中，這可以將資本保留在資產負債表上以支持獲利成長。它可能會購買像 Corvus 這樣的東西。

It could be investing in technology or people doing the things that we think we can do that are accretive to our objectives. And when we can't do that, we're going to give the dollars back. So it's a long-winded way of saying no change at all in our capital management loss. Dan, (inaudible).

它可能是投資於技術或人員做我們認為可以做的事情，這些事情有助於我們的目標。當我們做不到時，我們將退還美元。因此，這是一種冗長的說法，顯示我們的資本管理損失根本沒有任何變化。丹（聽不清楚）。

I agree entirely. There's no hidden message in there, Greg. It's business as usual.

我完全同意。格雷格，裡面沒有隱藏的訊息。一切如常。

Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛麗絲‧格林斯潘。

My first question is on the Fidelis relationship. Dan, I think you called out and said you expect a modest favorable impact in 2024. Can you just give us a sense of how favorable that deal was to '23 margins within BI and how we should think about the year-over-year improvement you guys are expecting in '24 versus '23?

我的第一個問題是關於菲德利斯的關係。 Dan，我想您曾說過，您預計 2024 年會產生適度的有利影響。您能否讓我們了解一下該交易對 BI 內的 '23 利潤率有多麼有利，以及我們應該如何考慮逐年改善你們期待24年和23年的比賽嗎？

Sure, Elyse, it's Dan. So really not going to put a very fine number on it. Keep in mind now that Fidelis is now a stand-alone public company. They haven't reported results yet. I don't think it would be appropriate for us to give an outlook of what we felt about their profitability. But it was a modest help in 2023. It will be a modest help again in 2024.

當然，愛麗絲，我是丹。所以真的不會給一個非常精確的數字。請記住，Fidelis 現在是一家獨立的上市公司。他們還沒有報告結果。我認為我們不適合對他們的獲利能力做出展望。但 2023 年的幫助不大。2024 年的幫助也很小。

There'll be a little bigger base of earned premium as we'll have 2 years' worth of written impacting 2024. So worth calling out as a modest benefit, but not a big number, and I really don't think it would be appropriate for us to try to put a finer number on it than that.

所賺取的保費基數將會更大一些，因為我們將有 2 年的書面影響到 2024 年。所以值得稱其為適度的福利，但不是一個大數字，我真的不認為它會是我們可以試著給出一個比這個更精確的數字。

Okay. Then within personal auto, what percent of your states or premium still have non-rate restrictions in place.

好的。然後，在個人汽車中，您的州或保險費中仍有多少百分比仍然存在非利率限制。

Elyse, I don't think we'll get more specific than the majority, but you can think of the non-rate restrictions as tracking very closely with where we see written adequacy state by state. So the majority of the premium is in states where we have relaxed some of those or tempered some of those non-rate actions because the majority of premium is in states where we've got target returns on a written basis.

Elyse，我認為我們不會比大多數人更具體，但您可以將非利率限制視為與我們看到的各州書面充分性非常密切地跟踪。因此，大部分溢價發生在我們放寬了其中一些措施或緩和了一些非利率行動的州，因為大部分溢價發生在我們已經獲得書面目標回報的州。

And again, as I indicated in the -- in my prepared remarks, we'll continue to follow that path as more states get adequate will temper actions in those states as they reach adequacy.

再次，正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，隨著更多的州達到充足水平，我們將繼續走這條道路，並在這些州達到充足水平時緩和這些州的行動。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

I guess my question is just looking at the rate slides. We saw an acceleration of pricing in middle market in select obviously, a decelerated headline. So I'm guessing that means there's deceleration in national property. Could you just, I guess, talk a little bit about the relative pricing dynamics in those 3 markets?

我想我的問題只是看看利率幻燈片。我們看到中間市場的定價明顯加速，而標題則減速。所以我猜測這意味著國家財產正在減速。我想您能否簡單談談這三個市場的相對定價動態？

Ryan, it's Greg. Yes, you can see, if you look at underneath the price, and you can see rate is up in both the middle market and Select business. So the residual that makes up the total BI, you're correct, the preponderance of that is national property. And so a couple of dynamics this quarter in National Property One is when that plays out to the total book, we did have less weight on a net written premium national property this quarter, quarter 4 versus quarter 3 and quarter 2.

瑞安，我是格雷格。是的，您可以看到，如果您查看價格下方，您會發現中間市場和精選業務的價格都上漲了。因此，構成總 BI 的剩餘部分，你是對的，其中的大部分是國家財產。因此，本季「國民財產一號」的一些動態是，當這影響到總帳面時，我們對本季（第四季）淨保費國民財產的權重確實比第三季和第二季要少。

And we did have a tick down overall in Rates national property also just given where the returns are in that business, and the business is performing extremely well.

考慮到該業務的回報率，我們的國家財產整體利率確實有所下降，而且該業務的表現非常好。

But make no mistake, Ryan, the overall rate change and renewal price change in the property line continues to be very strong.

但毫無疑問，瑞安，房產線的整體利率變化和續約價格變化仍然非常強勁。

Got it. And then just a follow-up. We're not used to seeing this type of margin expansion in business insurance. I would think that would mean that's largely attributable to short tail lines. But I guess I was also curious, obviously, Rate's been running an excessive onstream and casualties well for a while.

知道了。然後只是後續行動。我們不習慣在商業保險領域看到這種類型的利潤擴張。我認為這意味著這很大程度上歸因於短尾線。但我想我也很好奇，顯然，Rate 運行過度並且傷亡已經有一段時間了。

We have been really talked about changing loss picks or anything like that. But was there a change on the casualty side to I guess, loss picks in the fourth quarter? Any true-up to the current year or something like that we should be aware of?

我們確實討論過改變損失選秀權或類似的事情。但我猜，第四季的損失選秀權有改變嗎？今年有什麼真實情況或我們應該注意的類似事情嗎？

No. Ryan, it's Dan. Like if we have an unusual item in the quarter that's sort of nonrun rate, we'll usually try and call it out for you, including some kind of year-to-date catch-up. Michael referred to it in PI auto, but you didn't hear Greg talk about anything significant in BI because there wasn't really anything significant in BI.

不，瑞安，是丹。就像如果我們在本季度有一個不尋常的項目，即未運行率，我們通常會嘗試為您指出，包括某種年初至今的追趕。 Michael 在 PI auto 中提到了它，但你沒有聽到 Greg 談論 BI 中的任何重要內容，因為 BI 中實際上沒有任何重要內容。

So we do -- what we always do, right, go through all the lines there's puts and takes across every line, looking at frequency and severity. But on the whole, no big change in our view of blended trend.

所以我們做了——我們一直在做的事情，對吧，檢查每條線上的所有 put 和 take 行，查看頻率和嚴重性。但整體而言，我們對混合趨勢的看法並沒有太大的變化。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。

First question is maybe looking for a little bit more color on some of the pleasantly surprising commentary about the general liability and umbrella returns still being very good despite but someone else had pointed out, was 5 of the last 7 quarters adding to reserves. So just curious, is there any more -- can you elaborate on that business? Is that maybe you're taking into account the -- you don't typically hear that. Maybe it's the investment income that's helping or it's sold as part of a package. And so the rest of the products are running at better returns? Or anything you could add to that?

第一個問題可能是尋找更多關於一般負債和傘式回報仍然非常好的一些令人驚喜的評論，儘管有人指出，過去 7 個季度中有 5 個季度增加了準備金。所以只是好奇，還有更多的資訊嗎？您能詳細說明一下這項業務嗎？也許你正在考慮——你通常不會聽到這個。也許是投資收入起了作用，或者是作為一攬子計劃的一部分出售。那麼其他產品的報酬率是否更高？或者你可以添加什麼？

Mike, it's Dan. So we're thinking about the returns, and that is our all-in view of return, but we are specifically looking at those lines when we make that comment, although we do, to your point, also pay a lot of attention to returns on an account basis. But those comments were specific to the liability and umbrella lines. And this really goes back to the comment that Alan made a couple of quarters ago, which is -- the amounts that were, I'll say, tweaking prior year reserve development by is really pretty modest in the scope and the scheme of those reserves. And when we look at the total volume of business that we're writing and the returns on an over time basis, we still both like both of those lines very much.

麥克，是丹。因此，我們正在考慮回報，這就是我們對回報的總體看法，但是當我們發表評論時，我們會特別關注這些內容，儘管就您而言，我們也非常關注回報以帳戶為基礎。但這些評論是針對責任和總括範圍的。這確實可以追溯到艾倫幾個季度前發表的評論，我想說的是，調整前一年儲備開發的金額在這些儲備的範圍和計劃方面確實相當適度。當我們查看我們正在編寫的業務總量和一段時間內的回報時，我們仍然非常喜歡這兩條線。

Another way to think about it might be that you think about it in terms of rate adequacy and you might have an attractive rate adequacy, you might make an adjustment to it. It might be to one degree or another, slightly less rate adequate, nonetheless, you like the rate adequacy. So that's -- it's in that context, we say we continue to like to return in those lines.

另一種思考方式可能是，你從利率充足性的角度來考慮，你可能有一個有吸引力的利率充足性，你可能會對其進行調整。可能在某種程度上，利率充足性稍低，但您喜歡利率充足性。所以，在這種背景下，我們說我們仍然願意回歸這些領域。

Okay. That's helpful. And my follow-up, Alan, you continue to mention and show gauges of free cash flow. You also mentioned that it's -- I still don't think it's appreciated, at least I don't appreciate it why it's important. So maybe you can try to further elaborate on is it -- is the increase in cash flows, which I assume is correlated with your increased growth. Is that actually aiding your ROE? Or what are we -- why should we be focusing more on free cash flow, which has a lot of moving parts in it.

好的。這很有幫助。我的後續行動，艾倫，你繼續提到並展示了自由現金流的衡量標準。你也提到，我仍然不認為它受到讚賞，至少我不明白為什麼它很重要。因此，也許您可以嘗試進一步詳細說明現金流的增加，我認為這與您的成長成長相關。這真的有助於你的 ROE 嗎？或者我們是什麼——為什麼我們應該更多地關注自由現金流，其中有很多變化的部分。

Yes. I wouldn't say it's just growth. It's a combination of profitable growth is what I would say about that. And as I've said, that I mean that's what gives us the flexibility to invest in all the important things we invest in, return capital to shareholders and grow the investment portfolio. So without strong free cash flow, we couldn't do those 3 things, and those are key to our operating model.

是的。我不會說這只是成長。我想說的是，這是獲利成長的結合。正如我所說，我的意思是，這使我們能夠靈活地投資於我們投資的所有重要事物、向股東返還資本並擴大投資組合。因此，如果沒有強大的自由現金流，我們就無法做這三件事，而這些就是我們營運模式的關鍵。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith)。

First question, if I look at the underlying combined ratio on your business insurance, it's, I believe, the best it's ever been since the St. Paul merger and public prior to that just on the numbers. I guess can you kind of talk a little bit about -- is that a sustainable kind of underlying combined ratio, underlying margin?

第一個問題，如果我看一下你們商業保險的基本綜合比率，我相信，這是自聖保羅合併以來以及在此之前公開的數字上最好的。我想你能談談——這是一種可持續的基礎綜合比率、基礎保證金嗎？

Is there more improvement potentially can go there? At what point do you kind of say, okay, the margins we're seeing on the business are about as good as we should have and there maybe more focus on growth and more expenses and other things. How do you balance that?

那裡還有更多的改進空間嗎？在什麼時候你會說，好吧，我們在業務上看到的利潤率與我們應該有的一樣好，並且可能會更多地關注增長和更多的費用和其他事情。你如何平衡這一點？

It's a really good question. And as you can imagine, I'm going to resist the temptation to try to share too much on an outlook of that number or what we might want to do strategically. Everything you mentioned is something we can think about. And I really would like to get away from talking about the future of margins.

這是一個非常好的問題。正如你可以想像的那樣，我將抵制住誘惑，試圖就這個數字的前景或我們可能想做的策略性行動分享太多。你提到的一切都是我們可以思考的。我真的不想談論利潤率的未來。

But we've answered that question before with loss trend where it is and pricing where it is. So you can conclude that answer hasn't really changed. So I think I'm just going to leave it with we really like these margins. We really like the business we're putting on the books at the margin we're putting it on the books and we really like the opportunity ahead of us.

但我們之前已經透過損失趨勢和定價回答了這個問題。所以你可以得出結論，答案並沒有真正改變。所以我想我會留下我們真的很喜歡這些利潤。我們真的很喜歡我們登記在冊的業務，我們真的很喜歡我們面前的機會。

Brian, this is Greg. Just one follow-up. I would note you said you could grow the business. We are growing the business 16% on a full year basis and have strong new business. So there's a number of items that we watch and we compete in the marketplace, but growth is one of them through the lens of adequacy of our products.

布萊恩，這是格雷格。只是一個後續行動。我注意到你說你可以發展業務。我們的業務全年成長 16%，並且擁有強勁的新業務。因此，我們關注許多項目並在市場上競爭，但透過我們產品的充足性來實現成長是其中之一。

Yes. And on that note, as I've shared before, we -- it's a full area in this industry to try to grow and compete on price. That's a losing proposition. we try to grow by making sure we've got the products, services and experiences that our customers want to buy and our distribution partners want to sell.

是的。在這一點上，正如我之前分享的那樣，我們——這是這個行業的一個完整領域，試圖在價格上成長和競爭。這是一個失敗的提案。我們透過確保我們擁有客戶想要購買和分銷合作夥伴想要銷售的產品、服務和體驗來努力實現成長。

Makes sense. And then, Michael, I'm just curious, back on personal auto. When you look at your business, the majority right now being, call it, rate adequate on a written basis, what are you kind of thinking from a loss cost in place in perspective? And is that maybe why you're not stepping on growth maybe a little bit quicker right now because of uncertainty as far as the claim severity?

說得通。然後，邁克爾，我只是好奇，回到個人汽車。當你審視你的業務時，現在大多數人都在書面基礎上對它進行了適當的評級，那麼從現有的損失成本的角度來看，你是怎麼想的？這是否可能是因為索賠嚴重程度的不確定性，您現在不加快增長速度的原因？

Sure, Brian. It's a great question. I would say that we continue to see loss trends moderate in personal auto but they remain at elevated levels. And so I guess I would describe our outlook as cautiously optimistic, and I would just say we're staying very disciplined, as I described earlier, with state-by-state execution, making sure we have our arms around written rate adequacy and then adjusting our marketplace actions in auto accordingly.

當然，布萊恩。這是一個很好的問題。我想說的是，我們繼續看到個人汽車的損失趨勢溫和，但仍處於較高水平。因此，我想我會將我們的前景描述為謹慎樂觀，我只想說，正如我之前所描述的那樣，我們將保持非常嚴格的紀律，逐州執行，確保我們掌握書面利率的充足性，然後相應地調整我們在汽車領域的市場行動。

And as I said, we're very pleased with the increase in new business production that we saw this quarter and policies in force stabilizing. And our plan is to continue down that path, achieve rate equity in additional states and for those non-rate actions as we go. and see what that does to the top line as we move forward.

正如我所說，我們對本季新業務產量的增加和政策的有效穩定感到非常高興。我們的計劃是繼續沿著這條道路走下去，在其他州以及我們正在進行的非利率行動中實現利率公平。看看隨著我們的前進，這對營收有何影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

I was hoping for an update on what you're seeing in workers' compensation medical inflation. We've heard some comments about it moving back towards normalized levels and I'm wondering what Travelers experience is?

我希望了解您所看到的工人賠償醫療通膨的最新情況。我們聽到了一些關於它回到正常水平的評論，我想知道旅行者的體驗是什麼？

Meyer, it's Dan. So sure, a couple of comments on that. We do see some paid medical severity. That's now higher than what we saw in the very benign pandemic levels. On the flip side of that, frequency has been pretty favorable. And as you know, we've shared a number of times previously, our view in reserving and in pricing still assumes that there's going to be a return to that higher longer-term trend.

邁耶，我是丹。當然，對此有幾點評論。我們確實看到了一些有償醫療嚴重程度。現在這個水平高於我們在非常良性的大流行中看到的水平。另一方面，頻率相當有利。如您所知，我們之前已經多次分享過，我們對保留和定價的看法仍然假設將會回歸到更高的長期趨勢。

But when we factor all that in, in the most recent data that we're looking at, loss costs still coming in better than we expected, and that's why you get another quarter of favorable PYD.

但是，當我們將所有這些因素考慮在內時，在我們查看的最新數據中，損失成本仍然好於我們的預期，這就是為什麼您會獲得另一個季度的有利 PYD。

Okay. Fantastic. And then switching gears. When we look at the, I guess, the premium data in Business Insurance, it looks like exposure and other components that are not rates accelerated in select but decelerated in middle market and property. And I was hoping you could talk us through that.

好的。極好的。然後換檔。我想，當我們查看商業保險的保費數據時，看起來敞口和其他組成部分的利率在精選市場中並未加速，但在中間市場和財產中卻有所減速。我希望你能和我們談談這個問題。

Meyer, this is Greg. We have a couple of dynamics going on between those 2 businesses. In Select, we have a higher exposure in workers' comp E&CMP. And for workers' comp relative to middle market, I think that it's just a different cohort of customers. So in a wage increase environment on a smaller customer base, you get bigger deltas and so that's what's driving the difference in workers' comp.

邁耶，這是格雷格。這兩家公司之間正在發生一些動態。在 Select 中，我們在工人補償 E&CMP 方面擁有更高的曝光度。對於相對於中階市場的工人補償，我認為這只是不同的客戶群。因此，在客戶群較小的加薪環境中，你會獲得更大的增量，這就是推動勞工薪資差異的原因。

CMP, similar to what Michael said, that's our business owner product with a heavy property coverage that comes with it in. So we do have to think of it as an automatic inflationary level underneath the CMP product, so you get a little more exposure to growth there also. So those are the drivers underneath the difference between select and middle.

CMP，與邁克爾所說的類似，這是我們的企業主產品，附帶了沉重的財產保險。因此，我們必須將其視為 CMP 產品下方的自動通膨水平，這樣您就可以更多地接觸到那裡也有成長。這些就是 select 和 middle 之間差異的驅動因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First one I had is on Business Insurance. And I was just interested in hearing a little bit about the competitive dynamic in the market. I mean I look at the returns, the underlying loss ratios are and so forth and the ROEs that suggests and yet price accelerating and in some areas, your business retention is actually hitting pretty darn high levels.

我的第一個保險是商業保險。我只是想聽聽一些有關市場競爭動態的資訊。我的意思是，我會查看回報率、基本損失率等以及表明的股本回報率，但價格卻在加速增長，在某些領域，您的業務保留率實際上達到了相當高的水平。

So it also gets a lot of discipline in the marketplace. And -- just wanted to get your perspective on what is it in the environment that's causing everyone to remain so disciplined despite good underwriting and the additional contribution to net investment income.

因此它在市場上也受到了許多約束。而且 - 只是想了解您對環境的看法是什麼，導致每個人都保持如此自律，儘管有良好的承保和對淨投資收入的額外貢獻。

Alex, it's Alan. Let me start and then I'll turn it over to Greg to add anything I missed. But I would say, overall, you're correct. The pricing environment remains very strong and broad-based by any historical standard or on any measure.

亞歷克斯，這是艾倫。讓我開始，然後我會將其交給格雷格添加我錯過的任何內容。但我想說，總的來說，你是對的。無論以任何歷史標準或任何衡量標準來看，定價環境仍然非常強勁且基礎廣泛。

And as you said, even with another quarter of very strong pricing, retention remains at historical highs. And I would say in broad strokes and there's really no change here from recent quarters. In broad strokes, I think there are 2 trends impacting pricing. On the one hand, there's just a lot of uncertainty out there in the world, and there's some headwinds.

正如您所說，即使定價又一個季度非常強勁，保留率仍保持在歷史高點。我想說的是，從廣義上講，與最近幾個季度相比，這裡確實沒有任何變化。總的來說，我認為有兩種趨勢影響定價。一方面，世界上存在著許多不確定性，並且存在一些阻力。

So the reinsurance market continues to be strong. You've got inflation of various varieties. You've got a tight labor market. I think weather is probably on everybody's minds, think about geopolitics these days, the world has never been more active than it is now and on and on. And so I can't speak for anybody else, but we're reacting to those things in our pricing.

因此，再保險市場持續強勁。有各種各樣的通貨膨脹。勞動市場緊張。我認為天氣可能是每個人都關心的問題，想想這些天的地緣政治，世界從未像現在這樣活躍。所以我不能代表任何人，但我們正在對定價中的這些事情做出反應。

At the same time, we've had -- returns were in a much better place than they were a few years ago because we've done a pretty good job with pricing terms, conditions and all the rest. And so the pricing you see from us, and you referred to it as a competitive marketplace. I would say that it is a marketplace that is pretty disciplined. I suspect reacting to many of the things that we're reacting to. Greg, anything to add?

同時，我們的回報比幾年前要好得多，因為我們在定價條款、條件和其他方面做得很好。因此，您從我們這裡看到的定價，您將其稱為競爭市場。我想說這是一個非常有紀律的市場。我懷疑我們正在對許多事情做出反應。格雷格，有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's spot on.

不，我認為這是正確的。

Got it. The second one I had is on personal auto. Can you just give us maybe a high-level idea of what's going on with severity in the claims, and we can look a lot at used cars and that kind of thing, but some of the more nuanced elements are on core repair and that kind of thing. Any color you can provide on some of those trends?

知道了。我的第二個是私人汽車。您能給我們大概介紹一下索賠的嚴重程度嗎？我們可以仔細研究二手車之類的事情，但一些更微妙的元素是關於核心修復之類的東西。您可以為其中一些趨勢提供任何顏色嗎？

Yes. Sure, Alex, it's Michael. Maybe just give a couple more comments relative to the comment I made earlier about moderating trends. You're right to point to sort of vehicle severity and used car prices, and we certainly see moderation there in the level of increase year-on-year. And in fact, when you look at the dynamics underneath the prior period adjustments that I described in the script, those really are driven by the physical damage coverages. Late last year, we were adding to our estimates for vehicle losses because physical damage coverages were rising more than we thought they were going to.

是的。當然，亞歷克斯，這是邁克爾。也許只是相對於我之前關於緩和趨勢的評論再發表一些評論。您指出車輛嚴重程度和二手車價格是正確的，我們當然看到同比增長水平有所放緩。事實上，當您查看我在腳本中描述的前期調整下的動態時，您會發現這些確實是由物理損壞覆蓋率驅動的。去年年底，我們增加了車輛損失的估計，因為物理損壞承保範圍的成長超出了我們的預期。

And this year, we actually took down some of our estimates for vehicle severity on prior periods because they've been a bit more favorable than we anticipated. Broadly speaking, severity in auto is running mid- to high single digits, think closer to mid in the vehicle severity, think closer to high and bodily injury.

今年，我們實際上取消了之前時期對車輛嚴重程度的一些估計，因為它們比我們的預期要有利一些。一般來說，汽車的嚴重程度為中高個位數，認為車輛嚴重程度接近中等程度，認為接近高程度和身體傷害。

And so that's sort of where trends are running today. We don't have a dramatic improvement in those trends sort of factored into our comments about when we're going to get to written adequacy state by state or those types of things, but that's a little bit more detail on sort of where things are running today.

這就是當今的趨勢。我們對這些趨勢沒有顯著的改善，這些趨勢會被納入我們關於何時逐個州或這些類型的事情達到書面充分性的評論中，但這是關於事情的具體情況的更多細節今天跑步。

The other thing that we've mentioned a couple of quarters throughout the year is we are also monitoring the mix of losses between vehicle loss and losses that have third-party property damage and bodily injury. We've seen a bit of a mix shift towards more bodily injury claims, which is one of the things that has us keeping our severity trend estimates at that sort of elevated level.

我們在一年中幾季提到的另一件事是，我們還在監控車輛損失與第三方財產損失和人身傷害損失之間的損失組合。我們已經看到了一些向更多身體傷害索賠的混合轉變，這是使我們將嚴重程度趨勢估計保持在較高水平的原因之一。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

I want to follow directly on that maybe similar thoughts about the home part of the business, Michael.

邁克爾，我想直接跟進對公司的家庭部分可能有類似的想法。

Sure. Just in terms of outlook for trans (inaudible)?

當然。只是就跨性別者的前景而言（聽不清楚）？

Yes, please.

是的，請。

Yes. So in property, again, the big driver of the improvement this quarter really was catastrophes and non-cat weather. The non-cat weather and I guess the non-weather loss dynamic that I would elaborate on is a lot of that non-cat weather favorability and some of the non-weather loss favorability that we've commented on throughout 2023, really has been frequency-driven.

是的。因此，在房地產領域，本季改善的主要動力實際上是災難和非貓天氣。非貓天氣和我想我要詳細闡述的非天氣損失動態是我們在 2023 年全年評論過的很多非貓天氣有利度和一些非天氣損失有利度，確實是頻率驅動。

We do still see pretty healthy severity trends in the property space, offsetting some of that favorable frequency. Now again, we've had favorable results in the quarter. So the net is a good guy. But labor and some large loss pressure along with that favorable frequency is what's happening kind of underneath the loss levels in property.

我們確實仍然看到房地產領域相當健康的嚴重趨勢，抵消了一些有利的頻率。現在，我們在本季再次取得了良好的業績。所以網路是個好人。但勞動力和一些巨大的損失壓力以及這種有利的頻率是在財產損失水平之下發生的事情。

I'm just curious for some time, I think we've seen a little bit of a divergence between commercial auto and personal lines auto. Has that continued to be the case? Or are we seeing pretty similar claim trends in across sort of anything that drives?

我只是好奇了一段時間，我認為我們已經看到商用汽車和個人汽車之間存在一些分歧。情況一直如此嗎？或者我們在各種驅動因素​​中看到了非常相似的索賠趨勢？

I think broadly, the claim trends are similar. I mean we see similar threads. It's obviously -- I mean that the exposures are different. The size of the vehicles are different. Mike, what else would be the other, limits profile were different.

我認為總的來說，索賠趨勢是相似的。我的意思是我們看到了類似的線索。很明顯——我的意思是曝光是不同的。車輛的大小不同。麥克，還有什麼是其他的，限製設定檔是不同的。

Limits profile were different. Mix of vehicle versus bodily injury is different between business insurance and personal insurance, right, Greg?

限制概況不同。商業保險和個人保險之間的車輛傷害和人身傷害的組合是不同的，對吧，格雷格？

Yes. I mean, one of the benefits, Paul, of having 2 large cohorts of auto business, commercial, auto, personal our product managers and actuaries spend a lot of time together and compare the trends. And for commercial, we'll have passenger -- private passenger, light vehicles, think Vans of that sort. And then we'll have heavies, which aren't as relevant, but we spend a lot of time on the 2 cohorts that are private passenger like and the trends are very similar, both on a frequency and severity basis between the 2 portfolios.

是的。我的意思是，保羅，擁有兩大汽車業務、商業、汽車、個人產品經理和精算師花大量時間在一起比較趨勢的好處之一。對於商業而言，我們將擁有客運——私人客運、輕型車輛，例如貨車之類的。然後我們會有重量級的，它們不那麼相關，但我們在兩個類似私人乘客的群體上花了很多時間，而且兩個投資組合之間的頻率和嚴重程度的趨勢非常相似。

We have time for one more question. And that question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。這個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Andrew Kligerman。

Question -- most of my questions are answered. But the -- in Bond & Specialty, the results looked exceptional. But in the context of renewal premium change, I'm very curious as to how pricing fared with regard to D&O and cyber in the quarter and what you're thinking in terms of those 2 lines going into 2024.

問題——我的大部分問題都得到了解答。但在 Bond & Specialty 中，結果看起來很出色。但在續訂保費變化的背景下，我很好奇本季 D&O 和網路方面的定價表現如何，以及您對 2024 年這兩條線路的看法。

Yes. Andrew, this is Jeff Klenk. So relative to D&O and cyber, public D&O pricing continues to be, I'd say, more pressured relative to the other liability lines. I would remind you that for public D&O and our management liability book, we're relatively underweight there. That's not been a major area of focus for us. On the cyber side, we continue to see some modest negative pricing there. I think, given some broader market perception on the returns in the line. Again, we feel really good about our execution there. We closely monitor our return profiles and are comfortable with our execution, both for those lines of business and management liability problem.

是的。安德魯，這是傑夫克倫克。因此，相對於 D&O 和網絡，我想說，相對於其他責任險種，公共 D&O 定價仍然面臨更大的壓力。我想提醒大家，對於公共董事及高階主管和我們的管理責任書，我們的權重相對較低。這不是我們關注的主要領域。在網路方面，我們繼續看到一些適度的負定價。我認為，考慮到市場對該行回報的一些更廣泛的看法。再次，我們對我們在那裡的執行感到非常滿意。我們密切監控我們的回報情況，並對我們的執行感到滿意，無論是對於這些業務線還是管理責任問題。

Got it. Great. And along the same lines in business insurance with regard to workers' comp, I was wondering if you could put some numbers around that paid medical severity higher than the benign numbers you were seeing during the pandemic. I think that was in response to Meyer's question. And then the same question on the pricing of workers' comp. What are you thinking about going into 2024 as you proceed?

知道了。偉大的。與商業保險在工人補償方面的情況相同，我想知道您是否可以列出一些數字，這些數字支付的醫療嚴重程度高於您在大流行期間看到的良性數字。我認為這是對邁耶問題的回應。然後是關於工人補償定價的同樣問題。當您繼續前進時，您對 2024 年有什麼想法？

Andrew, it's Dan. So I'll start and disappoint you on the work comp severity. So we're not going to put a number on it. But again, it's been benign. We've seen some of those numbers move up, but your starting point matters. So what you assumed medical severity was going to be inside of your overall loss pick.

安德魯，是丹。所以我將從工作補償的嚴重程度開始讓你失望。所以我們不會給出具體數字。但同樣，它是良性的。我們已經看到其中一些數字有所上升，但您的起點很重要。因此，您所假設的醫療嚴重程度將包含在您的整體損失選擇範圍內。

Pick really matters in terms of whether a move-up is problematic for you or not. And again, we saw more favorable reserve development this quarter. And then in terms of pricing, and I'll turn it to Greg. I think the returns in comp have continued to be good. So pure rate has continued to be slightly negative for us. We are getting strong exposure increases, Greg referenced in the select comments a few minutes ago. that's the poster child for where a lot of that exposure behaves like rate because it's the same worker just earning a higher wage and we're getting paid a higher price for it. the rating agencies, the bureaus are looking at their data on a lagging basis. And until returns come under some pressure in work comp, we wouldn't be surprised to see this environment stay pretty steady.

就升職是否對你來說有問題而言，選擇確實很重要。本季我們再次看到了更有利的儲備發展。然後在定價方面，我會將其轉給格雷格。我認為公司的回報率仍然不錯。因此，純利率對我們來說繼續呈現小幅負值。 「我們的曝光度正在大幅增加，」格雷格在幾分鐘前的精選評論中提到。這是一個典型的例子，其中許多風險的表現就像利率一樣，因為同一個工人只是賺取更高的工資，而我們為此得到了更高的價格。評級機構、評級機構正在滯後地查看他們的數據。除非回報受到工作補償的壓力，否則我們不會驚訝地看到這種環境保持相當穩定。

Thank you. I will now turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein for closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在將會議請阿貝·戈爾茨坦女士致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your time. And as always, if there's any follow-up, please feel free to reach out. Have a great day.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們感謝您的寶貴時間。一如既往，如果有任何後續行動，請隨時與我們聯繫。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。