旅行家集團 (TRV) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the third quarter results teleconference for Travelers. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on October 18, 2023. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

早安，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加旅客第三季業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議的錄製時間為 2023 年 10 月 18 日。此時，我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Abbe Goldstein。戈德斯坦女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our third quarter 2023 results. We released our press release, financial statement -- supplement, sorry, and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Travelers 對我們 2023 年第三季業績的討論。今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務報表補充，抱歉，以及網路廣播簡報。所有這些資料都可以在我們的 Travelers.com 網站的「投資者」部分找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our three segment presidents: Gregory Toczydlowski of Business Insurance; Jeffrey Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance.

今天發言的是董事長兼執行長 Alan Schnitzer；丹‧弗雷，財務長；以及我們的三個部門總裁：商業保險的 Gregory Toczydlowski；債券與專業保險的傑弗裡·克倫克（Jeffrey Klenk）；和個人保險的邁克爾克萊因。

They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take questions.

他們將討論我們業務的財務表現和當前的市場環境。他們將在完成準備好的發言時參考網路廣播演示，然後我們將回答問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors.

在我將電話轉給艾倫之前，我想提請您注意網路廣播簡報末尾的解釋性說明。我們今天的演示包括前瞻性陳述。該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，並非對未來績效的保證。由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in the Investors section on our website. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 報告中的前瞻性陳述中進行了描述。我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。此外，在我們的評論或對問題的答覆中，我們可能會提到一些非公認會計準則財務指標。調節表包含在我們最近的收益新聞稿、財務補充資料和我們網站投資者部分提供的其他資料中。現在我想把電話轉給艾倫‧施尼策。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Core income of $454 million for the quarter benefited from very strong underlying underwriting results and net investment income but was also impacted by elevated catastrophe losses and net unfavorable prior year reserve development. Mike will provide more context on the catastrophe losses.

謝謝你，阿貝。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。本季核心收入為 4.54 億美元，受益於非常強勁的基礎承保業績和淨投資收入，但也受到巨災損失增加和上一年不利的淨準備金發展的影響。麥克將提供有關災難損失的更多背景資訊。

The unfavorable prior year reserve development was driven by the results of our annual asbestos review in our runoff book. The reserves in the ongoing businesses of all three segments developed favorably. We are very pleased with the underlying fundamentals of our business. Underlying underwriting income of $868 million pretax was up more than 40% over the prior year quarter, driven by record net earned premiums of $9.7 billion and a consolidated underlying combined ratio which improved almost 2 points to an excellent 90.6%. The underlying combined ratios in our commercial segments remained excellent.

上一年不利的儲量發展是由我們徑流書中年度石棉審查的結果所推動的。三個板塊的持續業務儲備均呈現良好發展。我們對我們業務的基本面感到非常滿意。稅前基礎承保收入為 8.68 億美元，較去年同期增長 40% 以上，這得益於創紀錄的 97 億美元淨賺保費以及提高近 2 個百分點至 90.6% 的綜合基礎綜合成本率。我們商業部門的基本綜合成本率仍然出色。

Our Business Insurance segment once again delivered very strong results with an underlying combined ratio of 89.7%. The underlying combined ratio in our Bond & Specialty business was also excellent at 80.7%.

我們的商業保險部門再次取得了非常強勁的業績，基本綜合成本率為 89.7%。我們的債券與特種業務的基礎綜合成本率也非常出色，達到 80.7%。

Looking at the two commercial segments together, the aggregate BI BSI underlying combined ratio was 88.3% for the quarter, among our best ever.

將這兩個商業領域放在一起來看，本季 BI BSI 基礎綜合成本率為 88.3%，是我們有史以來最好的水準之一。

In our Personal Insurance segment, the underlying combined ratio improved more than 5 points to 94.2% as a strong written rate from prior quarters is earning in. Our underlying results in Personal Insurance are improving and heading in the right direction.

在我們的個人保險部門，由於前幾季的強勁承保率正在盈利，基本綜合成本率提高了5 個百分點以上，達到94.2%。我們在個人保險領域的基本業績正在改善，並朝著正確的方向發展。

Turning to investments. Our high-quality investment portfolio continued to perform extremely well, generating after-tax net investment income of $640 million, reflecting strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio and solid returns from our nonfixed income portfolio.

轉向投資。我們的高品質投資組合持續表現出色，產生了6.4 億美元的稅後淨投資收入，反映出我們不斷增長的固定收益投資組合帶來的強勁而可靠的回報，以及非固定收益投資組合帶來的穩健回報。

In terms of production, thanks to great execution by our colleagues in the field and the strong franchise value they have to sell. We grew net written premiums by $1.3 billion or 14% to a record $10.5 billion.

在生產方面，這要歸功於我們在該領域的同事的出色執行力以及他們必須出售的強大特許經營價值。我們的淨承保保費增加了 13 億美元，即 14%，達到創紀錄的 105 億美元。

In Business Insurance, we grew net written premiums by 16% to $5.1 billion. Renewal premium change in the segment was very strong at 12.9%, driven by renewal rate change, which accelerated year-over-year and sequentially to 7.9%. Renewal rate change was higher sequentially in every line other than workers' comp, where overall renewal premium change remains positive and appropriate given returns in the line.

在商業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增加了 16%，達到 51 億美元。在續保費率變化的推動下，該細分市場的續保保費變化非常強勁，達到 12.9%，年比和季比加速至 7.9%。除工人補償外，所有產品線的續保費率變化均較高，考慮到該產品線的回報，整體續保保費變化仍然為正且適當。

For the segment, even with higher pricing at record levels, retention remained very strong at 87%, a reflection of a rational market. New business was strong and hired broadly across the segment.

對於該細分市場，即使定價達到創紀錄水平，保留率仍然非常高，達到 87%，這反映了市場的理性。新業務強勁，並在整個細分市場廣泛聘用。

In Bond & Specialty Insurance, we grew net written premiums to a record $1 billion, achieved 91% retention of our high-quality Management Liability business and grew net written premiums in our industry-leading Surety business by 13%. Given the attractive returns, we are very pleased with the strong production results in both of our commercial business segments.

在債券和專業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增長至創紀錄的 10 億美元，高品質管理責任業務的保留率達到 91%，行業領先的擔保業務的淨承保保費增長了 13%。鑑於有吸引力的回報，我們對我們兩個商業業務部門的強勁生產業績感到非常滿意。

In Personal Insurance, top line growth of 14% was driven by higher pricing. Renewal premium change was 19.4% in our homeowners and other business increased to a record high 18.2% in our auto business. Another quarter of strong production across the board positions us well for the rest of the year and into 2024. We'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results.

在個人保險領域，定價上漲推動了 14% 的收入成長。我們的房主續保保費變動為 19.4%，而我們的汽車業務其他業務則增至歷史新高 18.2%。又一個季度的全面強勁生產使我們在今年剩餘時間和 2024 年保持良好勢頭。我們很快就會從 Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 那裡聽到更多有關我們部門業績的信息。

With the end of the year in sight and 2024 on the horizon and coming into focus, we feel very well positioned for what's ahead and quite confident. In our Business Insurance segment, written margins are expanding. Pricing has been strong and the components of core goods inflation that impact our loss costs are moderating. Medical inflation, in particular, remains benign. Nonetheless, given the duration of relevant liabilities, we continue to incorporate medical inflation and our loss costs based on the higher longer-term trends.

年底在即，2024 年即將到來並成為人們關注的焦點，我們對未來做好了充分的準備，並且充滿信心。在我們的商業保險部門，承保利潤正在擴大。定價一直強勁，影響我們損失成本的核心商品通膨因素正在放緩。尤其是醫療通膨仍然溫和。儘管如此，考慮到相關負債的期限，我們繼續根據較高的長期趨勢考慮醫療通膨和損失成本。

In terms of the top line of Business Insurance, we're pleased that economic output and consumption so far remain robust. Given our leading workers' compensation business, we've ended in particular, from the near 50-year low in unemployment, the primates labor participation rate, which is at its highest level since 2007 and ongoing wage inflation, which contributes to premium growth and margins.

就商業保險的營收而言，我們很高興經濟產出和消費迄今仍然強勁。鑑於我們領先的工人賠償業務，我們特別結束了失業率近 50 年來的低點、靈長類動物勞動參與率（達到 2007 年以來的最高水平）以及持續的工資通膨（這導致保費增長和邊距。

As a result of strong pricing in recent years and higher fixed income NII, returns in the segment are currently attractive. Nonetheless, given the uncertainty generally in terms of weather volatility, economic and social inflation, hardening reinsurance market and the geopolitical landscape, we plan to continue pursuing strong price increases in both the property and casualty lines to achieve our overtime return objectives.

由於近年來強勁的定價和較高的固定收益NII，該領域的回報目前頗具吸引力。儘管如此，考慮到天氣波動、經濟和社會通膨、再保險市場硬化以及地緣政治格局等方面普遍存在的不確定性，我們計劃繼續追求財產險和意外險險種的價格大幅上漲，以實現我們的加班回報目標。

Turning to our industry-leading Bond & Specialty business. We just reached a milestone $1 billion in net written premiums and returns are terrific. And as you've heard, results in our personal insurance business are headed in the right direction. Earned margins are improving and additional price increases will earn in from here. We're very pleased with our targeted marketplace execution. At same time, inflationary pressures are moderating.

轉向我們行業領先的債券和特種業務。我們剛剛達到了 10 億美元淨承保保費的里程碑，回報非常好。正如您所聽說的，我們的個人保險業務正在朝著正確的方向發展。賺取的利潤正在提高，並且額外的價格上漲將從這裡獲利。我們對目標市場的執行非常滿意。與此同時，通膨壓力正在緩和。

In terms of the investment portfolio with interest rates at their highest levels in recent memory and most indications suggesting higher for longer, we are extremely well positioned. In the last 5 years, we've grown our very high-quality investment portfolio by nearly $19 billion or about 25% to more than $90 billion. 93% of the portfolio is allocated to fixed income.

就利率處於近期記憶中最高水平的投資組合而言，而且大多數跡象表明利率將在更長時間內保持較高水平，我們處於非常有利的位置。在過去 5 年中，我們的優質投資組合成長了近 190 億美元（約 25%），達到超過 900 億美元。 93%的投資組合分配給固定收益。

As we look ahead to 2024, we expect our after-tax fixed income NII will be more than $2.6 billion. To ensure that our competitive advantages continue to distinguish us and fuel our performance. We will continue to invest in our ambitious and focused innovation priorities. We're spending more than $1.5 billion this year on technology, inside an excellent expense ratio and with a higher proportion allocated to strategic technology investments. We're confident that we're working on the right priorities, executing effectively and that will see the benefits play out in growth at attractive returns going forward.

展望 2024 年，我們預計稅後固定收益 NII 將超過 26 億美元。確保我們的競爭優勢繼續使我們脫穎而出並推動我們的業績。我們將繼續投資於我們雄心勃勃且專注的創新優先事項。今年我們在技術上的支出超過 15 億美元，費用率非常高，分配給戰略技術投資的比例更高。我們相信，我們正在致力於正確的優先事項，有效地執行，並將在未來以有吸引力的回報看到成長帶來的好處。

Lastly, I'll share that we're recently back from one of the year's largest industry conferences where we met with many of our distribution partners. We left confident that we have the pole position with distribution in the United States and that we're positioned to support each other's strategic and marketplace priorities. We're committed to being their best partner and to offering the products and services that best serve our mutual customers.

最後，我要告訴大家的是，我們最近剛從今年最大的產業會議之一回來，在會上我們會見了許多分銷合作夥伴。我們相信我們在美國的分銷方面處於領先地位，並且我們有能力支持彼此的戰略和市場優先事項。我們致力於成為他們的最佳合作夥伴，並提供最適合我們共同客戶的產品和服務。

To sum it up, we remain very confident in the outlook for our business. I couldn't be more grateful to my 30,000 colleagues who show up every day committed to our culture for standard of excellence and fulfilling our mission of creating shareholder value and our purpose of taking care of the people we're privileged to serve. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

總而言之，我們對我們的業務前景仍然充滿信心。我非常感謝我的 30,000 名同事，他們每天都致力於我們追求卓越標準的文化，履行我們創造股東價值的使命，以及我們照顧我們有幸服務的人們的宗旨。至此，我很高興將電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Alan. Core income for the third quarter was $454 million and core return on equity was 6.9% as heavy cat activity impacted our results. We're pleased to have once again generated record levels of earned premium this quarter and an excellent underlying combined ratio of 90.6%, a 1.9-point improvement from last year's strong results.

謝謝你，艾倫。第三季核心營收為 4.54 億美元，核心股本回報率為 6.9%，因為大量巨災活動影響了我們的業績。我們很高興本季再次創造了創紀錄水平的賺取保費和 90.6% 的出色基礎綜合成本率，比去年的強勁業績提高了 1.9 個百分點。

This combination of growth and underlying margin improvement led to a very strong underlying underwriting gain of $684 million after tax, up $206 million or 43% from the prior year quarter. The expense ratio for the third quarter improved 10 basis points from last year's quarter to an excellent 28% and continues to reflect the benefits of our focus on productivity and efficiency, coupled with strong top line growth.

成長和基本利潤率改善相結合，帶來非常強勁的稅後承保收益 6.84 億美元，比去年同期增加 2.06 億美元，即 43%。第三季的費用率比去年同期提高了 10 個基點，達到 28%，出色地體現了我們對生產力和效率的關注所帶來的好處，以及強勁的營收成長。

Our third quarter results include $850 million of pretax catastrophe losses, resulting from another quarter of both frequency and severity of weather across North America.

我們第三季的業績包括 8.5 億美元的稅前巨災損失，這是由於北美地區天氣頻率和嚴重程度又增加了一個季度。

Turning to prior year reserve development, we had total net unfavorable development of $154 million pretax. In Business Insurance, net unfavorable PYD of $263 million was driven by charges in our runoff business, including $284 million related to our annual asbestos review, as well as increased reserves for abuse and molestation resulting from the volume of claims related to the closing of the reviver window in California. This year's asbestos charge includes an additional increase to strengthen our carried reserve position relative to the range of outcomes.

談到上一年的儲備開發，我們的稅前淨不利開發總額為 1.54 億美元。在商業保險方面，淨不利PYD 為2.63 億美元，這是由我們徑流業務的費用推動的，其中包括與我們的年度石棉審查相關的2.84 億美元，以及因與關閉保險業務相關的索賠數量而增加的虐待和騷擾準備金。加州的復興者窗口。今年的石棉費用包括額外增加，以加強我們相對於結果範圍的儲備地位。

Outside of runoff in our ongoing businesses, Business Insurance had $132 million of net favorable PYD driven by favorability in workers' comp that was partially offset by unfavorability in Commercial Auto. In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD of $72 million was driven by another quarter of better-than-expected results in both Surety and Management Liability. Personal Insurance had $37 million of net favorable PYD driven by homeowners and other.

除了我們正在進行的業務的徑流之外，商業保險還有 1.32 億美元的淨有利 PYD，這是由工人補償的有利因素推動的，但部分被商業汽車的不利因素所抵消。在債券和特種業務領域，保證金和管理負債業務又一個季度好於預期的業績推動了 7,200 萬美元的淨有利 PYD。個人保險有 3700 萬美元的淨優惠 PYD，由房主和其他人推動。

After-tax net investment income of $640 million was up 27% from the prior year quarter. Fixed maturity NII was again higher than the prior year quarter, reflecting both the benefit of higher average yields and the significant growth in our portfolio of invested assets. Returns in the non-fixed income portfolio were also above the prior year quarter. With interest rates having moved higher during the third quarter, we are again raising our outlook for fixed income NII, including earnings from short-term securities to approximately $615 million after tax for the fourth quarter.

稅後淨投資收益為 6.4 億美元，比去年同期成長 27%。固定期限NII再次高於去年同期，反映出平均殖利率上升的好處以及我們投資資產組合的顯著成長。非固定收益投資組合的報酬率也高於去年同期。隨著第三季利率走高，我們再次將第四季固定收益NII（包括短期證券收益）的預期上調至約6.15億美元稅後。

For 2024, we now expect more than $2.6 billion after tax, our highest level ever, beginning with approximately $630 million in the first quarter of 2024 and growing to approximately $690 million for the fourth quarter. New money rates as of September 30 are about 180 basis points higher than what is embedded in the portfolio.

對於 2024 年，我們目前預計稅後收入將超過 26 億美元，這是我們有史以來的最高水平，從 2024 年第一季的約 6.3 億美元開始，到第四季將增長到約 6.9 億美元。截至 9 月 30 日，新貨幣利率比投資組合中的利率高出約 180 個基點。

Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter of more than $3 billion were an all-time record. All our capital ratios were at or better than our target levels and we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $1.7 billion. Interest rates increased and spreads widened during the quarter, and as a result, our net unrealized investment loss increased from $4.6 billion after tax at June 30, to $6.5 billion after tax at September 30.

轉向資本管理。本季營運現金流超過 30 億美元，創下歷史紀錄。我們所有的資本比率均達到或優於我們的目標水平，本季結束時，我們的控股公司流動性約為 17 億美元。本季利率上升，利差擴大，因此，我們的未實現投資淨損失從 6 月 30 日的稅後 46 億美元增加到 9 月 30 日的稅後 65 億美元。

As we've discussed previously, the changes in unrealized investment gains and losses generally did not impact how we manage our investment portfolio. We generally hold fixed income investments to maturity. The quality of our fixed income portfolio remains very high and changes in unrealized gains and losses have little impact on our cash flows, statutory surplus or regulatory capital requirements.

正如我們之前討論的，未實現投資收益和損失的變化通常不會影響我們管理投資組合的方式。我們通常持有固定收益投資至到期。我們的固定收益投資組合的品質仍然非常高，未實現損益的變動對我們的現金流量、法定盈餘或監管資本要求影響不大。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $115.78 at quarter end, up 2% from year-end and up 3% from a year ago. We returned $333 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter, comprising share repurchases of $101 million and dividends of $232 million. We have approximately $6.1 billion of capacity remaining under the share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors.

季末調整後每股帳面價值（不包括未實現的淨投資收益和損失）為 115.78 美元，比年末成長 2%，比去年同期成長 3%。本季我們向股東返還了 3.33 億美元的資本，其中包括 1.01 億美元的股票回購和 2.32 億美元的股息。根據董事會的股票回購授權，我們剩餘約 61 億美元的產能。

Similar to my comments on last quarter's call, a significant level of catastrophe losses we've experienced this year resulted in lower year-to-date earnings than we expected, so share repurchases in the fourth quarter will likely be lower than the quarterly share repurchases made in the first half of the year.

與我對上季度電話會議的評論類似，我們今年經歷的巨額災難損失導致年初至今的收益低於我們的預期，因此第四季度的股票回購可能會低於季度股票回購上半年製作的。

To sum things up, while our third quarter earnings were adversely impacted by elevated catastrophe losses, we're pleased to post another quarter of double-digit premium growth and improved and very strong underlying combined ratio and further improvement in our outlook for fixed income NII, all of which bodes well for our business results going forward. With that, I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of Business Insurance.

總而言之，雖然我們第三季的收益受到巨災損失增加的不利影響，但我們很高興看到又一個季度保費實現兩位數增長，基礎綜合成本率得到改善且非常強勁，並且我們對固定收益NII的前景進一步改善，所有這些都預示著我們未來的業務成果。這樣，我將把電話轉給格雷格，討論商業保險問題。

Thanks, Dan. Segment income for the third quarter was $468 million, with strong underlying underwriting and investment income as well as favorable prior year development in our ongoing book, offset by reserve charges in our runoff book, mostly related to asbestos. We're particularly pleased with our exceptional underlying combined ratio of 89.7% for the quarter, which was a 30 basis point improvement year-over-year and an all-time best third quarter result.

謝謝，丹。第三季的部門收入為 4.68 億美元，基礎承保和投資收入強勁，以及我們正在進行的賬簿中上一年的良好發展，被我們徑流賬簿中的準備金費用（主要與石棉相關）所抵消。我們對本季 89.7% 的出色基礎綜合成本率感到特別滿意，比去年同期提高 30 個基點，是第三季歷史最佳業績。

The benefit of earned pricing was offset by normal variability in loss activity, all in netting to an excellent result. Net written premiums increased 16% to a record third quarter of $5.1 billion, driven by very strong renewal premium change of 12.9%, historically high retention of 87% and new business of $695 million.

贏得定價的好處被損失活動的正常波動所抵消，所有這些都帶來了出色的結果。第三季淨承保保費成長 16%，達到創紀錄的 51 億美元，這得益於 12.9% 的強勁續保保費變化、87% 的歷史高保留率以及 6.95 億美元的新業務。

Underneath RPC, as you heard from Alan, renewal rate change accelerated sequentially from the second quarter to 7.9% with all lines other than workers' comp being higher. We're thrilled with these production results and our fields continued superior execution in the marketplace.

在 RPC 之下，正如您從 Alan 那裡聽到的那樣，續訂率變化從第二季度開始連續加速至 7.9%，其中除工人補償之外的所有產品線都更高。我們對這些生產結果感到非常興奮，並且我們的油田在市場上繼續保持卓越的執行力。

And given our high-quality book as well as several years of meaningful price increases, improvements in terms and conditions, we're very pleased to continue to produce historically strong retention levels.

鑑於我們的高品質圖書以及多年來有意義的價格上漲、條款和條件的改進，我們非常高興能夠繼續保持歷史上強勁的保留水平。

Lastly, we're encouraged that new business was higher than the prior year quarter broadly across the segment. While the comparison of new business to the prior year quarter benefited from a relatively modest prior year result as well as higher pricing on new business this year. We're also pleased with the impact that our strategic investments are having on our production results.

最後，令我們感到鼓舞的是，整個細分市場的新業務普遍高於去年同期。雖然新業務與去年同期相比受益於去年相對溫和的業績以及今年新業務的定價較高。我們也對策略投資對生產成果產生的影響感到滿意。

As for the individual businesses, in select, renewal premium change remained strong at 10.3%, while retention of 85% was up 2 points from the prior year quarter. New business was up $46 million from the prior year quarter, driven in large part by the continued success of our BOP 2.0 product. We're also encouraged with the early performance of our new state-of-the-art Commercial Auto product, which has been rolled out in 12 states.

就個別業務而言，部分續保保費變化依然強勁，達到 10.3%，而保留率則為 85%，較去年同期上升 2 個百分點。新業務較去年同期成長 4,600 萬美元，這在很大程度上得益於我們的 BOP 2.0 產品的持續成功。我們也對最先進的新型商用汽車產品的早期表現感到鼓舞，該產品已在 12 個州推出。

In middle market, renewal premium change remained very strong at 10.6%, while retention remained excellent at 89%. New business was a strong $352 million. We're pleased with the quality of the submission flow from our distribution partners during the quarter and our responsiveness in quoting and closing accounts that align with our appetite. As always, we remain vigilant around risk selection, underwriting and pricing.

在中間市場，續保保費變化仍然非常強勁，達到 10.6%，而保留率仍然非常出色，達到 89%。新業務達 3.52 億美元。我們對本季分銷合作夥伴提交流程的品質以及我們在報價和關閉帳戶方面的回應能力感到滿意，這符合我們的需求。一如既往，我們對風險選擇、承保和定價保持警惕。

To sum up, Business Insurance had another terrific quarter. We're pleased with our execution in driving strong financial results while continuing to invest in the business for long-term profitable growth. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

總而言之，商業保險又經歷了一個出色的季度。我們對推動強勁財務業績、同時繼續投資業務以實現長期獲利成長的執行力感到滿意。這樣，我就把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty posted terrific top and bottom line results for the quarter. Segment income was a record $265 million, up 10% from the very strong prior year quarter. The underlying combined ratio was an outstanding 80.7%.

謝謝，格雷格。 Bond & Specialty 公佈了本季出色的營收和淨利潤業績。部門營收達到創紀錄的 2.65 億美元，比去年同期強勁成長 10%。基礎綜合成本率為 80.7%，非常出色。

Turning to the top line. We're pleased to have delivered record net written premiums of over $1 billion. In domestic Management Liability, we again delivered record-level retention of 91%, up 2 points from the third quarter of 2022 while continuing to achieve positive renewal premium change. This result reflects the attractive returns of our high-quality book of business.

轉向頂線。我們很高興交付了超過 10 億美元的創紀錄的淨承保保費。在國內管理負債方面，我們再次實現了創紀錄的 91% 保留率，比 2022 年第三季提高了 2 個百分點，同時續保保費繼續實現積極變化。這一結果反映了我們高品質業務的有吸引力的回報。

Record Surety net written premiums reflect strong broad-based demand for surety bonds and higher premium from large construction projects. So we're pleased to have once again delivered terrific top and bottom line results this quarter, driven by our continued underwriting and risk management diligence, excellent execution by our field organization and the benefits from our value-added approach and market-leading competitive advantages. And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

創紀錄的擔保淨承保保費反映了對擔保債券的強勁廣泛需求以及大型建設項目更高的保費。因此，我們很高興本季度再次取得了出色的營收和利潤業績，這得益於我們持續的承保和風險管理盡職調查、我們現場組織的出色執行力以及我們的增值方法和市場領先的競爭優勢帶來的好處。現在我將把電話轉給麥可。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In Personal Insurance, the third quarter segment loss of $193 million was significantly impacted by catastrophe losses. We experienced elevated losses from weather activity, specifically related to wind and hail events. This was another active quarter for severe convective storms across the U.S. There were 19 designated PCS events specifically related to wind, hail and tornado activity in the quarter, nearly twice the 10-year average and the highest number for a third quarter in more than a decade.

謝謝傑夫，大家早安。在個人保險領域，第三季部門虧損 1.93 億美元，主要受到巨災損失的影響。我們經歷了天氣活動造成的損失增加，特別是與風和冰雹事件有關的損失。這是美國強對流風暴另一個活躍的季度。本季發生了19 起與風、冰雹和龍捲風活動專門相關的指定PCS 事件，幾乎是10 年平均水平的兩倍，也是10 年來第三季度的最高數量。十年。

On a more positive note, the underlying combined ratio of 94.2% improved 5.1 points compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting an improvement in both automobile and homeowners. Net written premiums for the quarter grew 14%, driven by high teens renewal premium change in both domestic automobile and homeowners and other.

從更積極的角度來看，94.2%的基本綜合成本率比去年同期提高了5.1個百分點，反映出汽車和房主的改善。由於國內汽車和房主及其他方面的青少年續保保費變化較大，該季度的淨承保保費增長了 14%。

In automobile, the third quarter combined ratio was 103.5%. This was 8.7 points lower than the prior year quarter, which included catastrophe losses resulting from Hurricane Ian. The underlying combined ratio of 100.6% and improved 3.3 points compared to the prior year quarter, driven by the impact of earned pricing in excess of loss trend.

汽車領域，第三季綜合成本率為103.5%。這比去年同期低 8.7 個百分點，其中包括伊恩颶風造成的災難損失。受獲利定價超過虧損趨勢的影響，基本綜合成本率為 100.6%，較上年同期增加 3.3 個百分點。

The quarter-over-quarter improvement in our results clearly reflects the growing impact of our pricing and non-rate actions. Underlying results in auto are headed in the right direction as the benefit of earned pricing continues to accelerate and as vehicle repair and replacement trends are moderating.

我們業績的環比改善清楚地反映出我們的定價和非利率行動的影響日益增長。隨著賺取定價的好處持續加速以及車輛維修和更換趨勢的放緩，汽車行業的基本業績正朝著正確的方向發展。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2023, it's important to remember that the fourth quarter auto underlying loss ratio has historically been 6 to 7 points above the average for the first 3 quarters because of winter weather and holiday driving.

展望 2023 年第四季度，重要的是要記住，由於冬季天氣和假日駕駛，第四季度汽車基礎損失率歷來比前三個季度的平均水平高 6 至 7 個百分點。

In homeowners and other, the third quarter combined ratio of 116.2% increased 13.9 points due to the catastrophe losses that I mentioned earlier. The underlying combined ratio of 88% improved 6.9 points, primarily due to the impact of earned pricing, a benefit from the favorable reestimation of prior quarters in the current year and a lower expense ratio.

在房主和其他方面，由於我之前提到的災難性損失，第三季綜合成本率為 116.2%，增加了 13.9 點。 88% 的基本綜合成本率提高了 6.9 個百分點，這主要是由於贏得定價的影響、受益於今年前幾季的有利重新估計以及較低的費用率。

Turning to production. Our results continue to demonstrate our disciplined market execution in a challenging marketplace. Beginning with domestic homeowners and other, renewal premium change of 19.4% was very strong. The lack of growth in policies in force reflects our continued actions to further balance rate adequacy, catastrophe risk and regulatory risk.

轉向生產。我們的業績繼續證明了我們在充滿挑戰的市場中嚴格的市場執行力。從國內房主和其他人開始，續保費 19.4% 的變化非常強勁。現行政策缺乏成長反映出我們為進一步平衡利率充足性、巨災風險和監管風險而持續採取的行動。

We expect renewal premium change in homeowners to remain consistent through year-end. Looking ahead to 2024, we expect renewal premium change to remain elevated, but moderate into low double digits as our automatic increase in limit factors returned to more normal levels in line with stabilizing industry estimates of replacement costs.

我們預計房主的續保保費變化到年底將保持一致。展望2024 年，我們預計續保保費變化將保持在較高水平，但會放緩至低兩位數，因為我們的限制因素自動增加恢復到更正常的水平，與行業對重置成本的穩定估計一致。

In domestic automobile, renewal premium change of 18.2% increased 2 points compared to the second quarter of 2023. Auto policies in force declined slightly, reflecting our continued efforts to manage growth while improving profitability. Going forward, we expect renewal premium change in auto to remain very strong but begin to move down from here as more of the book reaches rate adequacy on a written basis.

國內汽車方面，續保保費變動為 18.2%，較 2023 年第二季增加 2 個百分點。有效汽車保單略有下降，反映出我們在提高獲利能力的同時管理成長的持續努力。展望未來，我們預計汽車的續保保費變化將保持非常強勁，但隨著更多的書籍達到書面費率充足性，保費將開始下降。

I'm proud of the way our team continues to respond to the dynamic environment. We are consistently evolving pricing, segmentation, underwriting and terms and conditions, while managing new business flow to ensure we deploy capacity thoughtfully in the face of market dislocation. At the same time, we're sustaining our investments and capabilities to build our business for the future. With our leading talent, capabilities and strong distribution relationships, we are confident in our ability to generate leading returns over time. Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

我為我們的團隊持續應對動態環境的方式感到自豪。我們不斷改進定價、細分、承保以及條款和條件，同時管理新的業務流程，以確保我們在面對市場混亂時深思熟慮地部署產能。同時，我們正在維持我們的投資和能力，為未來打造我們的業務。憑藉我們領先的人才、能力和強大的分銷關係，我們對隨著時間的推移產生領先回報的能力充滿信心。現在我將把電話轉回阿貝。

Thanks, Michael. And operator, we're ready to start questions.

謝謝，麥可。接線員，我們準備好開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

Well, good morning, everyone. I guess my first question will focus on Business Insurance. I think you guys have now reported something like 14 consecutive quarters of year-over-year improvement in the underlying combined ratio.

嗯，大家早安。我想我的第一個問題將集中在商業保險上。我想你們現在已經報告了基本綜合成本率連續 14 個季度同比改善。

I guess what I'm -- where I'm going with this is just what is your longer-term target with your UCR, especially in light of what we're seeing in the accelerating renewal rate trend? And -- maybe if you don't want to answer it that way, maybe you can triangulate for us just how the renewal rate change, which is accelerating matches up with your inflation expectations and your insurance to value initiatives?

我想我要說的是，您的 UCR 長期目標是什麼，特別是考慮到我們所看到的續訂率加速趨勢？而且，如果您不想這樣回答，也許您認為我們三角測量續訂率的變化，這種變化正在加速與您的通膨預期和您的保險價值計劃相匹配？

A lot in that question, Greg. It's Alan, there's a lot in that question. I think you're right for starters. I don't think we're going to give you our targets or objectives. I think it gets too close to something it's competitively sensitive in terms of our pricing strategies. But I guess I'd point you toward where renewal premium change is, which is at record levels.

這個問題有很多，格雷格。我是艾倫，這個問題有很多內容。我認為你適合初學者。我認為我們不會向您提供我們的目標。我認為就我們的定價策略而言，它與競爭敏感的東西太接近了。但我想我會向您指出續訂保費變化的情況，該變化處於創紀錄的水平。

And frankly, I always hate to get into the commentary on loss trend because as I've shared before, to take a single metric to define what's going on across billions of dollars premium implies a level of precision that doesn't exist. Every line has got its own dynamics, so on and so forth. But there wasn't a lot of change in sort of the profile of loss activity this past quarter. So we continue to have a pretty meaningful gap between where renewal premium changes and where loss trends are. And so I think that gives you a sense. It's why we are -- it's easy enough in my prepared remarks to share that written margins are expanding.

坦白說，我總是討厭對損失趨勢進行評論，因為正如我之前分享的那樣，採用單一指標來定義數十億美元保費的情況意味著不存在的精確度。每條線都有自己的動態，等等。但上個季度的損失活動情況並沒有太大變化。因此，續保費變化與損失趨勢之間仍存在相當大的差距。所以我認為這給了你一種感覺。這就是我們的原因——在我準備好的發言中很容易分享書面利潤正在擴大。

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

Just a follow-up question on the BI underlying loss ratio. Greg, you had said that the benefit of earned pricing was offset by normal variability in loss activity. I was wondering if you could just size those components, and it sounded like non-cat weather was maybe a little bit elevated relative to normal expectations, but wondering if you could just break that down for us.

只是關於 BI 基礎損失率的後續問題。格雷格，您曾說過，贏得定價的好處被損失活動的正常變化所抵消。我想知道你是否可以調整這些組件的大小，聽起來非貓天氣相對於正常預期可能有點升高，但想知道你是否可以為我們分解一下。

David, it's Dan. I think we're not going to go any further. I think what Greg said is really the way to think about it, which is as Alan just mentioned, we've been getting a good level of written price increase, that's earning its way through. So there is still definitely a benefit from earned pricing.

大衛，我是丹。我想我們不會再繼續下去了。我認為格雷格所說的確實是思考問題的方式，正如艾倫剛才提到的，我們已經獲得了良好的書面價格上漲水平，這正在實現盈利。因此，贏得定價仍然肯定有好處。

In any given quarter, you got a handful of things that are going to go one way or the other that could be small weather, that could be base year, it could be mix changes, it could be just variability from one quarter to next. There were some good guys and some bad guys, nothing particularly significant and net result, just about offset the benefit from earned price. And again, all of inside of an underlying combined ratio that we're really happy with it sub-90%.

在任何給定的季度中，都會有一些事情會朝一個方向或另一個方向發展，可能是小天氣，可能是基準年，可能是混合變化，也可能只是從一個季度到下一個季度的變化。有一些好人，也有一些壞人，沒有特別重要的最終結果，只是抵銷了賺取價格帶來的好處。再說一次，我們對低於 90% 的基本綜合比率非常滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛麗絲‧格林斯潘。

I was hoping to get more color on the reserve development that you guys called out in your ongoing businesses within Business Insurance. You could tell us what the workers' comp favorability. And then I think you called out Commercial Auto developed adversely. Could we get the numbers there? And then are there any other lines in your ongoing business that moved materially in the quarter?

我希望對你們在商業保險領域正在進行的業務中所呼籲的準備金開發有更多的了解。你可以告訴我們工人對薪資的好感度是多少。然後我認為您指出商用汽車發展不利。我們能拿到那裡的號碼嗎？那麼，您正在進行的業務中是否還有其他業務在本季發生了重大變化？

Yes, Lisa, it's Dan. So sorry, I'll disappoint you that we're not going to do the line by line. But comp has been pretty strongly favorable. It was pretty strongly favorable again this quarter. In our remarks, we try to call out the lines that had noteworthy movement. This quarter, Commercial Auto did have some noteworthy movement. It wasn't dramatic, particularly in the scope of you think about the size of the reserves for the Commercial Auto book.

是的，麗莎，是丹。很抱歉，我們不會逐行進行，這會讓您失望。但比較卻非常有利。本季再次非常有利。在我們的評論中，我們試圖指出那些有值得注意變化的路線。本季度，商用汽車確實有一些值得注意的動作。這並不引人注目，特別是考慮到商用汽車書籍的儲備規模。

And what we saw in Commercial Auto this quarter is a little bit of a lengthening of the development patterns, not a terrifically new theme, but every quarter, we're looking at all the data that comes in. This gave us an indication that maybe reserves should be carried a little higher than we were, and we're just trying to react to that in real time as quickly as possible. Those were -- there were some movement in the other lines, some good guys and some bad guys, nothing particularly noteworthy, but those were the two main drivers.

本季我們在商用汽車領域看到的是開發模式的延長，這並不是一個非常新的主題，但每個季度我們都會查看所有進來的數據。這向我們表明，也許儲備金應該比我們以前的水平高一點，我們只是想盡快對此做出即時反應。其他方面也有一些變動，有好人，也有壞人，沒有什麼特別值得注意的，但這是兩個主要驅動力。

And then you guys -- you called out higher cats in the third quarter as well as other quarters this year. Are you guys contemplating making any changes to your reinsurance program heading into 2024? How do you think, I guess, changes you made over the past year could have led to higher cats this year?

然後你們在第三季和今年其他季度都表現出色。你們是否正在考慮在 2024 年之前對再保險計劃進行任何更改？我想，你認為你在過去一年中所做的改變可能會導致今年的貓科動物變得更高？

So I don't think that the changes we made would have had much of a difference. Obviously, the last few years, we've had that underlying cat aggregate treaty, we didn't attach it at all in 2023. We didn't renew it in 2024.

所以我認為我們所做的改變不會產生太大的影響。顯然，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經簽訂了基本的貓總條約，但我們在 2023 年根本沒有附加它。我們沒有在 2024 年續簽它。

We get that question a couple of times. Just to remind you, in 2023, when we had that underlying cat ag treaty, we placed...

我們多次收到這個問題。只是提醒您，2023 年，當我們簽訂了基本的貓農業條約時，我們放置了...

2022.

2022 年。

Sorry, 2022. I'm a year into the future already. So 2022, we didn't attach it. We didn't renew it in 2023.

抱歉，2022 年。我已經進入未來一年了。所以2022年，我們沒有附上它。 2023 年我們沒有續訂。

Even when we had it last time in '22, we placed about 50% of a $500 million layer. So it couldn't have been more than $250 million of recovery and it cost us a lot to have that policy. Rate online was very high for that coverage. We said in July 1 that we'd enter into a new PI-specific coastal reinsurance treaty. I think we'll just continue to evaluate our position and what's available to us in the marketplace from a reinsurance perspective as we look forward to 2024.

即使我們上次在 22 年進行時，我們也放置了 5 億美元層的大約 50%。因此，回收金額不可能超過 2.5 億美元，而且我們為制定這項政策付出了巨大代價。該報道的線上評價非常高。我們在 7 月 1 日表示，我們將簽訂一項新的針對 PI 的沿海再保險條約。我認為，展望 2024 年，我們將繼續從再保險的角度評估我們的地位以及市場上可供我們使用的產品。

But I'd say what we sort of regularly say, which is we're really pleased with our risk selection. We think we do a great job of segmentation and pricing. We're going to probably keep more net than many of our peers because at the end of the day, we like our underwriting.

但我想說的是我們常說的話，那就是我們對我們的風險選擇非常滿意。我們認為我們在細分和定價方面做得很好。我們可能會比許多同行保留更多的淨資金，因為歸根結底，我們喜歡我們的承保。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

First question is just from Michael. In terms of homeowners, that clearly seems like a line that probably needs more rate, not less, just given where cat trends have been.

第一個問題來自邁克爾。就房主而言，考慮到貓的趨勢，這顯然似乎是一條可能需要更高而不是更低利率的線。

But you mentioned in your prepared remarks that we might see some premium growth deceleration because of what you referred to as automatic increase in limits. It sounded like that might have been about half of renewal premium growth. Can you just I guess, mechanically help us understand a little bit more what that increase in limits is tied to? And in the absence of that, what are some other means by which you can get more price in that line?

但您在準備好的發言中提到，由於您所說的限額自動增加，我們可能會看到保費成長放緩。聽起來這可能是續保保費增加的一半左右。我猜你能機械地幫助我們更了解限制的增加與什麼有關嗎？如果沒有，您可以透過哪些其他方式獲得該產品線的更高價格？

Sure, Ryan. Thanks for the question. So just unpacking it for a second, right? So inside RPC in homeowners, there's really two primary components. There's rate and then there's exposure or other RPC, which primarily is the additional premium we collect due to the coverage A limit, the dwelling limit on the home going up.

當然，瑞安。謝謝你的提問。所以只是打開包裝一下，對吧？因此，在房主的 RPC 內部，實際上有兩個主要組件。有費率，然後有風險敞口或其他 RPC，這主要是我們由於保險範圍 A 限制（即房屋的住房限制）而收取的額外保費。

And over the past 2 years, we've increased coverage A amounts significantly to keep up with higher replacement cost trends that have been occurring sort of across the industry. And given those outsized increases in coverage A amounts over the last couple of years, as we take a look at our external data and information about where replacement costs are today and where trends are, we are largely caught up with that increase. And so we don't see a need for coverage A amounts to move dramatically north from here in the near term.

在過去的兩年裡，我們顯著增加了 A 的覆蓋範圍，以跟上整個行業中出現的更高的重置成本趨勢。鑑於過去幾年保險金額 A 的大幅增長，當我們查看有關當前重置成本和趨勢的外部數據和資訊時，我們在很大程度上趕上了這種增長。因此，我們認為短期內不需要將 A 覆蓋範圍從此處大幅向北移動。

So that premium that we would -- that we have been collecting because coverages As have been rising, won't be as nearly as big an element of renewal premium change in '24 as it was in '22 and '23.

因此，我們一直在收取的保費，因為承保範圍一直在上升，在 24 年續保保費變化中所佔的比例不會像 22 年和 23 年那樣大。

That said, to your point, clearly, the homeowners line continues to need great. It continues to need profit improvement, and we will continue to seek higher rate in homeowners even though the limit increases will be subsiding.

也就是說，就您的觀點而言，顯然，房主路線仍然需要很大。它仍然需要改善利潤，儘管限制增加將會消退，但我們將繼續向房主尋求更高的利率。

The other thing I'd point to is part of the answer in home is pricing. Another big piece of the answer is non-rate actions. And we've been very active in the marketplace across risk selection, payroll by apparel pricing, tighter eligibility, stricter terms and conditions to drive profit improvement in the property line as well.

我要指出的另一件事是家庭答案的一部分是定價。另一個重要的答案是非利率行動。我們在風險選擇、服裝定價工資、更嚴格的資格、更嚴格的條款和條件等方面一直在市場上非常活躍，以推動房地產領域的利潤提高。

Got it. And then just a follow-up on just Business Insurance retention. It's interesting, like how robust that's been. Clearly, we're seeing personal lines retention come off as I would think you'd expect when you're taking rate. Just -- what do you guys make of that? Like why has retention been still robust, I guess, despite so many rounds of rate increases?

知道了。然後只是商業保險保留的後續行動。這很有趣，就像它有多強大一樣。顯然，我們看到個人線路保留率下降，正如我認為您在收取費率時所期望的那樣。只是──你們對此有何看法？我想，儘管經歷瞭如此多輪的加息，為什麼保留率仍然強​​勁？

Ryan, this is Greg. I think we start every month with retaining our high-quality book of business. So it's been very much an intentional strategy of ours to make sure that we're being thoughtful on our terms and conditions, our pricing and all the changes that we're making to continuously improve margins. But given the quality of that book, it's not a surprise for us.

瑞安，這是格雷格。我認為我們每個月都會從保留高品質的業務簿開始。因此，這在很大程度上是我們有意採取的策略，以確保我們對條款和條件、定價以及為不斷提高利潤率而做出的所有改變都深思熟慮。但考慮到這本書的質量，這對我們來說並不奇怪。

It also is a an indicator of just how rational the marketplace is right now and the need for improved margins across the entire industry based on all those headwinds that Alan talked about. So we're not surprised by it. We're very pleased with it, and we're very focused on it.

它也顯示了當前市場的理性程度，以及基於艾倫談到的所有不利因素，整個產業提高利潤率的必要性。所以我們對此並不感到驚訝。我們對此非常滿意，並且非常專注。

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Bhullar from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Bhullar。

So first, I just had a question on Commercial Auto. And if you could just give us a little bit more insight into what's driving the adverse development there. Some of your peers have seen that as well, and I think there are some concerns that this could be sort of the beginning of a trend given what's gone on in Personal Auto over the past 2 years or so?

首先，我有一個關於商用汽車的問題。如果您能讓我們更深入地了解是什麼推動了那裡的不利發展。你們的一些同行也看到了這一點，我認為考慮到過去兩年左右個人汽車領域發生的事情，有人擔心這可能是趨勢的開始？

Jimmy, it's Dan again. So yes, as we said a little while ago, Commercial Auto is really just a modification based on the most recent data that's come in, in terms of the development of claims in Commercial Auto, particularly bodily injury claims. This is something that we've commented on and off probably over the last 3 or 4 quarters. Numbers have been pretty modest, the themes are not inconsistent with what we anticipated. But to get a new set of data and the data looks a little bit different than your prior estimation. And so the magnitude of some of the changes that we anticipated is a little higher.

吉米，又是丹。所以，是的，正如我們剛才所說，商業汽車實際上只是根據最新數據進行的修改，就商業汽車索賠的發展而言，特別是人身傷害索賠。這是我們在過去三、四個季度中可能斷斷續續評論過的事情。數字相當有限，主題與我們的預期並不不一致。但要獲得一組新數據，數據看起來與您之前的估計有點不同。因此，我們預期的一些變化的幅度要高一些。

Really the focus of this most recent strengthening is the continued sort of longer development of -- or said inversely the slower closing of claims in Commercial Auto. So as that continues to lag historical closer patterns, we're making an adjustment to reflect the most recent data.

實際上，最近的走強的重點是商用汽車索賠的持續長期發展，或者相反，索賠結案速度較慢。因此，由於這繼續滯後於歷史更接近的模式，我們正在進行調整以反映最新的數據。

And that's just a function of repairs taking longer or something else?

這只是修復時間更長還是其他原因造成的？

This is more in the bodily injury side of Commercial Auto, so it's not so much repairs themselves, although that's been a factor in both Michael's business and a smaller degree and Greg's business, bodily injury, it's more of the settlement of the injury client.

這更多是在商業汽車的人身傷害方面，所以它本身並不是那麼多的維修，儘管這在邁克爾的業務和較小程度以及格雷格的業務中都是一個因素，人身傷害，這更多的是受傷客戶的和解。

And then in Personal Auto, where are you in terms of rate adequacy on a written basis? And is -- your discount has been sort of flattish. Are competitors being fairly rational and you're seeing price increases across the board? Or are there some companies that are not adjusting due to the higher loss trend?

那麼在個人汽車方面，您的書面利率充足性如何？而且，你們的折扣有點平淡。競爭對手是否相當理性並且您看到價格全面上漲？或者是否有一些公司由於虧損趨勢較高而沒有進行調整？

Thanks, Jimmy. It's Michael. I would say that when you look at our -- taking the second part of the question first, when you look at our production statistics, retention is down a bit, but it's actually been pretty resilient in the face of the rate we've been driving through the book, particularly given the magnitude of those numbers. And so I think that, that's indicative of a fairly rational market and the fact that these are, again, industry-wide pressures that most competitors are dealing with.

謝謝，吉米。是麥可。我想說，當你看我們的——首先考慮問題的第二部分，當你看我們的生產統計數據時，保留率下降了一點，但面對我們一直以來的速度，它實際上相當有彈性。仔細閱讀這本書，特別是考慮到這些數字的規模。因此，我認為，這顯示了一個相當理性的市場，而且事實上，這些也是大多數競爭對手正在應對的全行業壓力。

In terms of written rate adequacy, again, last quarter, I said we'd get there in the coming quarters. Relative to the comments last quarter, we feel a little bit better sitting here today than we did 90 days ago. Given the record level of RPC that we achieved in the third quarter and the fact that we're seeing loss trends stabilize, and that's coming through in our underlying combined ratio.

就書面利率充足性而言，上個季度我再次表示我們將在未來幾季實現這一目標。相對於上個季度的評論，我們今天坐在這裡感覺比 90 天前要好一些。鑑於我們在第三季度實現的創紀錄的 RPC 水平以及我們看到損失趨勢穩定的事實，這在我們的基本綜合比率中得到了體現。

That said, I would also say that written rate adequacy still depends on the same list of things we talked about last quarter, right? It's the price we get. It's how quickly loss trends moderate and how much they continue to moderate the regulatory process for getting rate approvals and our actual loss experience. But it is, at this point, very much a state-by-state conversation and we're working each state individually and adjusting our actions accordingly.

也就是說，我還想說，書面利率充足性仍然取決於我們上季討論過的相同事項清單，對吧？這是我們得到的價格。這是損失趨勢緩和的速度有多快，以及它們繼續緩和獲得費率批准的監管流程的程度以及我們的實際損失經驗。但這在很大程度上是一個州與州之間的對話，我們正在針對每個州單獨開展工作，並相應地調整我們的行動。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS Financial.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀金融集團 (UBS Financial) 的布萊恩梅瑞迪斯 (Brian Meredith)。

A couple of one here. First, Jeff answered some questions here. Jeff, on the Management Liability business, I think you mentioned in the quarter that there was some favorable current year development. Maybe we can quantify that and what's going on there with the Management Liability business that you're seeing this favorable development?

這裡有幾個。首先，Jeff在這裡回答了一些問題。傑夫，關於管理負債業務，我認為您在本季度提到了今年的一些有利發展。也許我們可以量化這一點，以及您所看到的管理責任業務的良好發展？

Brian, it's Dan. So I think we're not going to put a number -- not a significant deal. The only point Jeff was trying to make is sort of when you do the comparison year-over-year, there was some favorable CYPQ, which we called out last year in the third quarter, there was some favorable CYPQ this year as well, just not as much. So the year-over-year is unfavorable given less of a good guy.

布萊恩，是丹。所以我認為我們不會給出一個數字——這並不是什麼重要的事情。 Jeff 想要指出的唯一一點是，當你進行年比比較時，我們去年第三季就提到了一些有利的 CYPQ，今年也有一些有利的 CYPQ，只是沒那麼多。因此，鑑於好人少了，逐年不利。

Got you. Okay. That's helpful. And the next question, I'm just curious, bigger picture in Business Insurance. Exposure growth continues to be pretty healthy. Maybe you can give us a little context around what kind of drives that exposure growth. And we think that with the economy moderating some here that exposure will -- growth will start to slow here.

明白你了。好的。這很有幫助。下一個問題，我只是好奇商業保險的更大前景。曝光成長仍然相當健康。也許您可以為我們提供一些關於是什麼推動了曝光增長的背景資訊。我們認為，隨著經濟放緩，這裡的經濟成長將開始放緩。

Yes, Brian, we watch for that all the time. And as you can see in the webcast in the blue lines we give you, you can see it's been very stable across the select business, in the middle market. And obviously, those add to the total BI business. And so it really is a function of nominal GDP economic growth and the overall inflation levels.

是的，布萊恩，我們一直在關注這一點。正如您在我們為您提供的藍線網路廣播中看到的那樣，您可以看到在中間市場的精選業務中它非常穩定。顯然，這些都增加了 BI 業務總量。因此，它確實是名目 GDP 經濟成長和整體通膨水準的函數。

And clearly, we've seen the consumer type inflation correct somewhat from the peak of mid-2022. Where we're really encouraged when we also look at our audit premium, which is more of a going backward view in our core middle market business, we continue to have real strong audit premium also. So both backwards and forward, we're encouraged with how exposure is playing out in the business, and we'll continue to report out what we see with that line.

顯然，我們已經看到消費者類型通膨從 2022 年中期的高峰開始有所修正。當我們看到我們的審計溢價時，我們感到非常鼓舞，這更多的是我們核心中間市場業務的倒退觀點，我們也繼續擁有真正強勁的審計溢價。因此，無論是前後，我們都對業務中的曝光感到鼓舞，我們將繼續報告我們在這條線上看到的情況。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski from BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Michael Zaremski。

First, on Business Insurance segment. We heard loud and clear the comments about written margins expanding. Is the definition of written margins include reserve changes? Because I'm just trying to -- when we look at the loss ratio, maybe, I guess, ex cat, we clearly see that in the that reserve releases or additions or whatever, right, are worse year-over-year, clearly, margins are good. I'm just trying to -- are you trying to -- does written margins mean -- are you looking kind of forward-looking or backward looking? Any color there.

首先是商業保險板塊。我們聽到了關於擴大書面利潤的響亮而清晰的評論。書面保證金的定義是否包括準備金變更？因為我只是想 - 當我們查看損失率時，也許，我猜，前貓，我們清楚地看到，在儲備釋放或添加或其他任何內容中，對吧，逐年惡化，顯然，利潤率良好。我只是想——你想——書面邊距是否意味著——你看起來是前瞻性的還是回顧性的？那裡有任何顏色。

Mike, it's Dan. So just to clarify for you. So when we're talking about margin and not that context, we're talking about the underlying combined ratio. So leaving to the side catastrophe losses and leaving to the side prior year reserve development.

麥克，是丹。所以只是為您澄清一下。因此，當我們談論保證金而不是上下文時，我們談論的是潛在的綜合比率。因此，把災難損失放在一邊，並把上一年度的儲備發展放在一邊。

The only other comment I'd make in that regard is when we do see changes in prior year development, we do roll forward our thinking in terms of does that impact our view of current year loss and go-forward loss. But PYD itself, as it's booked, whether it's favorable or unfavorable, is outside of that concept where we're talking about underlying margins.

在這方面我要發表的唯一評論是，當我們確實看到上一年發展的變化時，我們確實會根據是否會影響我們對本年度虧損和未來虧損的看法來推進我們的思考。但 PYD 本身，正如它所預訂的那樣，無論是有利還是不利，都不在我們談論基本利潤的概念之外。

Okay. Understood. And just a quick follow-up then. Have you changed your view of forward-looking loss after this quarter? And you also called out the topping off of the asbestos and environmental that you think you used were topping off, you kind of called out an additional add. And I don't know if you want to call out specifically what that dollar amount was.

好的。明白了。然後快速跟進。本季之後您對前瞻性虧損的看法是否有改變？您還提出了您認為使用的石棉和環境的補充，您還提出了額外的添加。我不知道你是否想具體指出這筆金額是多少。

Yes. So I don't think we'll split the asbestos charge beyond that. But what we wanted to get across was we did our sort of traditional deep dive in the third quarter that resulted in a figure for which we would have strengthened the asbestos reserve. We chose also to think about it in simple terms as moving higher in the range of possible outcomes for asbestos. And so we put some money on top of what the analysis otherwise would have told you for the quarter.

是的。因此，我認為我們不會將石棉費用分攤到此之外。但我們想要傳達的是，我們在第三季進行了傳統的深入研究，得出了我們本應加強石棉儲備的數字。我們也選擇簡單地考慮它，即石棉的可能結果範圍不斷提高。因此，我們在本季分析結果的基礎上投入了一些資金。

And then in terms of the first part of the question, we're looking at all the factors that go into loss trend every quarter, including favorable or unfavorable PYD, there are generally small puts and takes on a pretty regular basis, nothing terribly significant in this quarter in terms of our view of loss trend.

然後就問題的第一部分而言，我們正在研究每個季度進入虧損趨勢的所有因素，包括有利或不利的 PYD，通常會定期出現小額看跌期權和期權，沒有什麼特別重要的就我們對本季度虧損趨勢的看法而言。

Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

I guess my first question is on workers' comp. So we saw a premium decline there year-over-year. Are there any onetime items there? Or is it just an indication of market conditions and then maybe rate compression? And maybe you can tie that into how you're viewing this line of business and your thoughts about that into 2024.

我想我的第一個問題是關於工人的補償。因此，我們看到保費同比下降。那裡有一次性物品嗎？或者它只是市場狀況的指示，然後可能是利率壓縮？也許您可以將其與您對這項業務的看法以及您對 2024 年的想法聯繫起來。

Yes, Yaron. Yes, I think you're referencing the slight down in the net written premium for the quarter. I would point to you that year-to-date, it is just up 2%. So it wasn't a meaningful change for the particular quarter. And obviously, where you're seeing not the level of net written premium growth on the other product lines that we're seeing in workers' comp is clearly the rate pressure that the entire industry is seeing there.

是的，亞龍。是的，我認為您指的是本季淨承保保費的小幅下降。我想指出的是，今年迄今為止，它只上漲了 2%。因此，對於特定季度來說，這並不是一個有意義的變化。顯然，您看到的不是我們在工人補償中看到的其他產品線的淨承保保費增長水平，而是整個行業所看到的利率壓力。

That rate pressure is driven based on the bureau's loss cost recommendations that continue to put minuses across the industry, and that's just an indication of the health of the line. We're the largest workers' comp writer in the country. And on a calendar year basis, we feel terrific about the results of that, and that's basically what's driving some of that net written premium change that you've mentioned.

這種利率壓力是基於該局的損失成本建議，這些建議繼續給整個行業帶來負面影響，而這只是該行業健康狀況的一個指標。我們是全國最大的工人補償作家。從日曆年的角度來看，我們對此結果感到非常滿意，這基本上就是推動您提到的淨承保保費變化的原因。

Just to be clear, we feel great about the workers' comp line. We feel great about our results this quarter this year, and we feel great about the outlook.

需要明確的是，我們對工人的補償感到非常滿意。我們對今年本季的業績感到滿意，對前景也感到滿意。

Got it. And then my second question, also on BI. Do you have any CYPQ there? Because I did notice that the underlying loss ratio was flat year-over-year. Just given the rate commentary and RPC commentary, where I thought maybe we'd see a little bit of improvement there.

知道了。然後是我的第二個問題，也是關於 BI 的。你們那裡有CYPQ嗎？因為我確實注意到基本損失率與去年同期持平。剛剛給了速率評論和 RPC 評論，我想也許我們會看到一些改進。

Yes, Yaron, it's Dan. So a little earlier in the call and in Greg's comments, we called out that, we did see some benefit from earned price. But half a dozen other things that would happen in any quarter, Could be some good guys, could be some bad guys, could be mix, could be base share, could be non-cat weather. There were some favorable and some unfavorable netted to a modest unfavorable to offset the pricing benefit, but nothing significant there.

是的，亞龍，我是丹。因此，在電話會議的早些時候和格雷格的評論中，我們指出，我們確實看到了贏得價格的一些好處。但是任何季度都會發生六種其他事情，可能是一些好人，可能是一些壞人，可能是混合的，可能是基礎份額，可能是非貓天氣。有一些有利的因素，也有一些不利的因素，最終以適度的不利因素抵消了定價優勢，但沒有什麼重大意義。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

I wanted to ask if you could help me think more about the cat load prospectively. And one of the things I was wondering about this may go to the definition to you think about cats, [important,] is if inflation is effectively pushing losses that otherwise in the past, we've not have been cat losses into the cat designation. And that may be how much of that may be part of why the cat load may need to go up? Just any thoughts on that would be great.

我想問你是否可以幫助我更多地考慮未來的貓負荷。我想知道的一件事可能涉及你對貓的定義，[重要的是，]是通貨膨脹是否有效地推高了損失，否則在過去，我們並沒有將貓的損失納入貓的名稱中。 。這可能是貓咪負載可能需要增加的原因之一？只要對此有任何想法就太好了。

Sure, Paul, it's Dan. I'll start. I think the sort of second piece of the question, the answer would be yes to the degree that some of what we've seen in higher cat losses is the impact of inflation over the last several years and just the value of those claims going up.

當然，保羅，是丹。我開始吧。我認為問題的第二部分，答案是肯定的，因為我們在巨額損失中看到的一些原因是過去幾年通貨膨脹的影響以及這些索賠價值的上升。

So yes, over time, more things would fall into what would get designated as "catastrophes" given the threshold. Other than that, thinking about cats, we're looking at long-term weather trends, medium-term weather trends, near-term weather trends, we're putting more weight on nearer-term weather trends. And as both Greg and Michael have talked about trying to react with very strong pricing changes in terms and conditions and risk selection, where we think it's appropriate.

所以，是的，隨著時間的推移，更多的事情將陷入在給定閾值的情況下被指定為「災難」的情況。除此之外，考慮到貓，我們正在關注長期天氣趨勢、中期天氣趨勢、近期天氣趨勢，我們更加重視近期天氣趨勢。正如格雷格和邁克爾都談到的那樣，我們認為在適當的情況下，試圖對條款和條件以及風險選擇方面非常強烈的定價變化做出反應。

There is also clearly an uptick in catastrophe activity this year. So last year, I think last quarter, I think, Alan, maybe gave the statistics that in the 91 days of the quarter, there were 88 days in which there was a PCS event occurring. In the third quarter, there were 92 days in the quarter. On 91 of those 92 days, there was a PCS event occurring. So the increase in catastrophes is the combination of several factors. One is there do seem to be more storms more frequently. Two, more people have moved into harm's way in terms of where the demographic spread of risk is. And three, inflation has resulted in the impact of those costs being higher.

今年災難活動也明顯增加。所以去年，我想上個季度，我想，艾倫可能給了統計數據，在該季度的 91 天中，有 88 天發生了 PCS 事件。第三季度，該季度有92天。這 92 天中有 91 天發生了 PCS 事件。所以災難的增加是多種因素共同作用的結果。一是暴風雨似乎確實更頻繁。第二，從風險的人口分佈來看，更多的人陷入了危險。第三，通貨膨脹導致這些成本的影響更高。

Is there any way to think about whether or not that would have an impact on the underlying combined ratio? Should you essentially move the same claim to the cat designation from the underlying?

有沒有辦法考慮這是否會對基礎綜合比率產生影響？您是否應該從底層將相同的聲明轉移到貓的名稱上？

Paul, sometimes we do see that in a quarter where it's bucketing, where things will spill over to a cat number that would have otherwise been an underlying -- that was not a big factor this quarter. It's not like there were a bunch of close calls because of inflation spilled over into a cat designation. This was a significantly high number of severe convective storms for the third quarter that created a bunch of catastrophes. So this was not a definitional bucketing close call issue. That does happen sometimes. It didn't happen this quarter.

保羅，有時我們確實會看到，在一個季度裡，情況會發生翻天覆地的變化，事情會蔓延到原本會成為基礎的數字上——這在本季度並不是一個大因素。這並不是說因為通貨膨脹而導致貓的頭銜出現了一堆千鈞一髮的情況。第三季強烈對流風暴的數量非常多，造成了一系列災難。所以這不是一個定義性的分桶千鈞一發問題。有時確實會發生這種情況。本季這種情況沒有發生。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ward from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的邁克爾沃德 (Michael Ward)。

I was curious about Personal Auto. Just wondering if there was an impact from current year reserves on the underlying result. And if you could maybe expand on the frequency and severity trends.

我對個人車很好奇。只是想知道今年的儲備金是否對基本結果有影響。如果您可以擴展頻率和嚴重性趨勢。

Sure, Michael. It's Michael. In terms of CYPQ, not a significant amount. I mean, we called out the earned impact of pricing that really is the driver of the improvement in underlying. And then as respect to frequency and severity, frequency largely coming in, in line with expectations. If you look at external indices, miles driven is up 2% to 3%. It's pretty consistent with the trend it's been on.

當然，邁克爾。是麥可。就 CYPQ 而言，金額並不大。我的意思是，我們指出了定價的實際影響，這確實是底層改善的驅動力。然後就頻率和嚴重性而言，頻率很大程度上符合預期。如果您查看外部指數，您會發現行駛里程增加了 2% 至 3%。這與它一直以來的趨勢非常一致。

And so not a lot to talk about on the frequency side and then really the moderating trends that I described are really coming from severity as we continue to see, in particular, physical damage severity moderate quarter-over-quarter-over-quarter as we go through 2023.

因此，在頻率方面沒有太多可談的，然後我所描述的緩和趨勢實際上來自嚴重程度，因為我們繼續看到，特別是物理損壞嚴重程度逐季度溫和，因為我們走過2023年。

And then on commercial property. Just wondering how should we think about the impact of the growth on BI margins? And could it -- if there's more volatility in non-cat property might that affect your growth appetite next year.

然後是商業地產。只是想知道我們應該如何考慮成長對 BI 利潤率的影響？如果非巨災財產出現更大的波動，可能會影響您明年的成長偏好。

Mike, it's Dan. So I think we're very aware and cognizant of the amount of property that we're putting on the books where we're putting it on the books and what that's doing to our total exposures price property with the risk load given the uncertainty and variability that can come with it. In terms of the margin from how much property you're writing there can be a mix change over time if you think about the relative loss ratios of the lines and some of that's driven by the duration of the liability in the lines property historically tends to run a lower underlying loss ratio than, for example, workers' comp. So you could get a mix change over time. Tell me if that's not responsive to your question.

麥克，是丹。因此，我認為我們非常清楚並認識到我們記入帳簿的財產數量，以及考慮到不確定性和風險負荷，這對我們的總風險暴露價格財產有何影響。隨之而來的可變性。就您所寫入的財產數量的保證金而言，如果您考慮線路的相對損失率，那麼隨著時間的推移，可能會出現混合變化，其中一些是由線路財產的負債期限驅動的，歷史上傾向於例如，與工人補償相比，基本損失率較低。所以你可以隨著時間的推移進行混合變化。如果這不能回答您的問題，請告訴我。

The one thing I'd add to that also is when you look at our property growth, the thrust of that growth really is being driven based on rate and exposure change we're being active and very selective on the new business front. But when you look at what's driving the net written premium change, it does start with rate and exposure change.

我還要補充的一件事是，當你觀察我們的房地產成長時，這種成長的推動力確實是基於利率和風險敞口的變化而驅動的，我們在新業務方面非常活躍且非常有選擇性。但是，當您查看推動淨承保保費變化的因素時，您會發現它確實是從費率和風險敞口的變化開始的。

And strong retention.

並且保留力強。

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

So a question to start for Jeff. We've seen G&A expenses rise significantly faster than written premium every quarter this year. And I'm hoping you could talk to what's going on there.

首先向傑夫提出一個問題。我們發現今年每季的一般管理費用成長速度明顯快於承保保費成長速度。我希望你能談談那裡發生的事情。

Absolutely. This is Jeff. Thanks, Meyer. The question on expenses is we're definitely making strategic investments to support our future success. And broadly speaking, I'd give you two buckets. It's employees and it's also technology investments and think platform. But I remind you all in the context of while we're delivering attractive returns.

絕對地。這是傑夫。謝謝，邁耶。關於費用的問題是，我們肯定會進行策略性投資以支持我們未來的成功。一般來說，我會給你兩桶。它是員工，也是技術投資和思考平台。但我提醒大家，我們正在提供有吸引力的回報。

Yes, that's fair. No, that's very helpful. Second question, and I'm obviously shooting a little bit in the dark, but it looks like last year and this year, the run rate of workers' compensation reserve releases was a lot higher than preceding years. And I was hoping you could talk through what that change is? Is it just COVID-related frequency benefit or are there other factors?

是的，這很公平。不，這非常有幫助。第二個問題，我顯然有點盲目，但看起來去年和今年工傷準備金髮的運行率比前幾年高了很多。我希望你能談談這個改變是什麼？這僅僅是與新冠病毒相關的頻率益處還是還有其他因素？

Meyer, it's Dan. Comp has been pretty consistently for a number of years, a pretty favorable development story. And when it is, it's across a number of accident years. That's continued to be the case in 2022 and 2023. We're really just reacting to -- we've had this conversation before.

邁耶，我是丹。 Comp 多年來一直保持穩定，這是一個非常有利的發展故事。當它發生時，已經跨越了許多事故年份。 2022 年和 2023 年的情況仍然如此。我們實際上只是做出反應——我們之前已經進行過這樣的對話。

You've got to be really careful with your assumption around medical cost trend given the duration of the liability, quarter goes by a bunch of claims closed. You see what actually happened in terms of severity relative to what you had previously allowed for and you make an adjustment.

考慮到責任的持續時間，您必須非常小心地對待您對醫療成本趨勢的假設，季度會出現大量已結案的索賠。您會看到實際發生的情況相對於您之前允許的情況的嚴重性，然後進行調整。

And we're really just following the numbers in that regard. We have -- we've certainly not become any more aggressive in the way we're reserving for workers' comp. It's just the mathematical output of the changes that we've seen.

我們實際上只是在追蹤這方面的數字。我們在為工人補償預留的方式上當然沒有變得更加激進。這只是我們所看到的變化的數學輸出。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First one I have for you is on casualty. And specifically, I wanted to ask you about some of the comments that have come out of the larger reinsurance companies. I mean it sounds like they've gotten a bit more cautious in their stance on U.S. casualty in general and I guess the social inflation trends and so forth.

我給你的第一個消息是關於傷亡的。具體來說，我想問大型再保險公司的一些評論。我的意思是，聽起來他們對美國總體傷亡的立場變得更加謹慎，我猜還有社會通膨趨勢等等。

And certainly, you guys -- it sounds like you saw a little bit of that in general liability and commercial lines. But I just wanted to see if you could provide a perspective on how big of an issue do you really think that is for the industry at this point? And is there anything unique about your exposure that sort of insulates you, whether it's the size of business that you tend to write and that kind of thing.

當然，你們——聽起來你們在一般責任和商業領域看到了一些這樣的情況。但我只是想看看您是否能提供一個觀點，說明您認為目前這個問題對產業來說到底有多大？您的曝光度是否有任何獨特之處可以讓您感到孤立，無論是您傾向於撰寫的業務規模還是諸如此類的事情。

Yes. Alex, it's Alan. We think that commentary is well placed. And frankly, we've been on that bandwagon since, I don't know, 2018 or something like that. So we think we rang that bell very, very early. We think we've reacted to it consistently even during the pandemic when you might have looked at the data and thought that things were improving. We've said consistently, we don't believe it. We think it's here. We think it's at higher levels. We think it's inflate faster.

是的。亞歷克斯，這是艾倫。我們認為這個評論是恰到好處的。坦白說，我不知道是從 2018 年還是類似的時間開始，我們就一直在追隨這個潮流。所以我們認為我們非常非常早就敲響了那個鐘。我們認為，即使在大流行期間，我們也始終如一地對此做出了反應，當時您可能查看了數據並認為情況正在改善。我們一直說，我們不相信。我們認為它就在這裡。我們認為它處於更高的水平。我們認為它膨脹得更快。

And so what we've seen is inside the underlying -- the combined ratios that we're reporting in Business Insurance. So we do think that it continues to be an important issue to watch. And we've taken a lot of price and in part in response to that. So it's an issue and we think we're on top of it.

因此，我們看到的是底層的內容——我們在商業保險中報告的綜合比率。因此，我們確實認為這仍然是一個值得關注的重要問題。我們採取了很多價格，部分是為了回應這一點。所以這是一個問題，我們認為我們已經解決了這個問題。

Got it. And a follow-up I had is on the auto insurance specifically. You all obviously showed a good amount of improvement, which is great to see. How much of that is driven by the severity beginning to calm down or stabilizing at least. I mean any color you can provide on those trends and maybe specifically even repair and what you're seeing there?

知道了。我的後續行動專門針對汽車保險。顯然你們都表現出了很大的進步，這是很高興看到的。其中有多少是由嚴重性至少開始平靜或穩定所驅動的。我的意思是您可以提供有關這些趨勢的任何顏色，甚至可能特別是修復以及您在那裡看到的內容？

Sure, Alex, it's Michael. I'll just clarify a couple of things I said earlier. So it really is the acceleration of earned pricing earning through and driving that underlying improvement. But when you think about the external trends, and external cost, it definitely is also a result of those external trends moderating. And we had been talking about double-digit loss cost trends, particularly in the physical damage space for a quarter upon quarter upon quarter, those trends moved into the single digit this quarter. So it was really both the earned pricing and the moderating trends driving that improvement.

當然，亞歷克斯，這是邁克爾。我將澄清我之前所說的幾件事。因此，這實際上是透過並推動這種根本性的改善來加速賺取定價的收益。但當你考慮外部趨勢和外部成本時，這肯定也是這些外部趨勢放緩的結果。我們一直在談論兩位數的損失成本趨勢，特別是在物理損壞領域，一個季度又一個季度，這些趨勢在本季度變成了個位數。因此，確實是贏得定價和緩和趨勢推動了這種改善。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Heleniak from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Scott Heleniak。

Just wondering if you could comment on the recent proposed reforms in the state of California really to keep private insurers from -- in the state from leaving the state. Do you think that initiatives there are appropriate? Do you think they're enough? And does that impact your strategy there either way in either direction? Just any overall kind of first views on some of the proposals out there?

只是想知道您是否可以對加州最近提議的改革發表評論，以真正防止該州的私人保險公司離開該州。您認為那裡的舉措合適嗎？你覺得他們夠了嗎？這是否會影響您的策略？對其中一些提案有什麼總體的第一看法嗎？

Sure, Scott. It's Michael. I'll share a couple of thoughts. First of all, the idea of regulatory reform in California is positive news. That said, I really don't think there are enough details available to evaluate. You've got a framework that the governor has asked the commissioner to take action on, but the details underneath that framework and how it's going to be implemented have yet to be defined.

當然，斯科特。是麥可。我將分享一些想法。首先，加州監理改革的想法是個好消息。也就是說，我確實認為沒有足夠的細節可供評估。州長已要求專員採取行動，但該框架下的細節以及如何實施尚未確定。

And so deciding whether it's a net positive or not and what actions to take as a result there just really aren't enough details yet to evaluate that further. But we certainly are encouraged by the fact that California is considering regulatory reform, and we think it's long overdue.

因此，要決定這是否是淨積極的，以及應採取什麼行動，目前還沒有足夠的細節來進一步評估。但我們確實對加州正在考慮監管改革這一事實感到鼓舞，而且我們認為這是早就該進行的。

And we have time for one more question, Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley.

我們還有時間回答一個問題，來自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

Most of my questions were answered, but maybe just one thing. You mentioned on the prepared remarks about tech investments. Can you possibly unpack that a little bit what are the key technological aspect that you're focusing on in terms of investment? I'm assuming cloud is always going to be a big part of your investment just given that there is a consumption-based expense model. But are there other IT capabilities that you would like to call out?

我的大部分問題都得到了解答，但也許只有一件事。您提到了有關科技投資的準備好的評論。您能否稍微解釋一下您在投資方面關注的關鍵技術面是什麼？鑑於存在基於消費的費用模型，我假設雲端始終將成為您投資的重要組成部分。但您還有其他值得一提的 IT 能力嗎？

Yes. So Bob, it's Alan. Thank you for the question. We would be really happy to take this offline with you. We've talked really extensively about this over a long period of time. But broadly, the investments that we're making across the organization fall into three buckets: one, extending our lead in risk expertise; two, providing great experiences to our customers, agents, brokers and employees; and three, optimizing productivity and efficiency.

是的。鮑勃，是艾倫。感謝你的提問。我們非常樂意與您一起離線進行此操作。我們已經在很長一段時間內廣泛討論過這個問題。但總的來說，我們在整個組織中進行的投資分為三個部分：一是擴大我們在風險專業知識方面的領先地位；二是擴大我們在風險專業知識方面的領先地位。第二，為我們的客戶、代理商、經紀人和員工提供良好的體驗；三是優化生產力和效率。

And that happens in a lot of different ways at the enterprise level, and it happens segment by segment. But at the enterprise, broadly speaking, it's digitizing the value chain. Digitizing the customer journey, modernizing the foundation, advanced analytics, automation, faster speed to market, getting the right price on the risk, things like that.

在企業層面，這種情況以多種不同的方式發生，而且是逐部門發生的。但從廣義上講，在企業中，它正在實現價值鏈的數位化。數位化客戶旅程、現代化基礎、進階分析、自動化、更快的上市速度、針對風險獲得合適的價格等等。

And in terms of what's going on in the businesses, it's partner integration, sales and service, better front end for customers. It's on and on. It's focused and it's ambitious. But it also covers a lot of ground. So we've talked a lot about it extensively, and we'd be happy to meet with the insure more.

就業務中正在發生的事情而言，它是合作夥伴整合、銷售和服務、為客戶提供更好的前端。它一直在持續。它專注且雄心勃勃。但它也涵蓋了很多方面。因此，我們對此進行了廣泛的討論，我們很高興與保險公司進行更多的交流。

Okay. And maybe just like a follow-up on workers' comp and apologies for belaboring the point on this. Is that possible to maybe unpack a little bit in terms of how the loss ratio looks like for workers' comp versus other parts of Business Insurance. I'm assuming this does not impact your loss cost trend of 5.5% to 6%, but just curious as to if you can give a little bit of detail there.

好的。也許就像工人補償的後續行動一樣，並對在這一點上闡述這一點表示歉意。是否有可能稍微了解一下工人補償與商業保險其他部分的損失比率。我假設這不會影響您 5.5% 到 6% 的損失成本趨勢，但只是好奇您是否可以提供一些細節。

Yes, we're not going to break out the losses by product line, but it certainly is wrapped in the overall number that we've talked about historically.

是的，我們不會按產品線細分損失，但它肯定包含在我們歷史上討論過的總數中。

Ms. Abbe Goldstein, I will turn the call back over to you.

阿貝·戈德斯坦女士，我會將電話轉回給您。

Great. Thanks, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for our call. And as usual, if there's any follow-up, please feel free to reach out to Investor Relations. Have a good day.

偉大的。感謝大家。感謝您今天加入我們的電話。與往常一樣，如果有任何後續行動，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。