旅行家集團 (TRV) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the fourth quarter results teleconference for Travelers. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded January 24, 2023. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎來到 Travellers 第四季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2023 年 1 月 24 日錄製。此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Abbe Goldstein 女士。 Goldstein 女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our fourth quarter 2022 results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section. Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our 3 segment presidents: Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance, Jeff Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance.

謝謝你。早上好，歡迎來到旅行者討論我們 2022 年第四季度的業績。今天上午早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務增刊和網絡廣播演示文稿。所有這些材料都可以在我們網站 travelers.com 的“投資者”部分找到。今天發言的是董事長兼首席執行官 Alan Schnitzer；首席財務官 Dan Frey；以及我們的 3 位部門總裁：商業保險的 Greg Toczydlowski，債券和專業保險的 Jeff Klenk；和個人保險的 Michael Klein。

They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take your questions. Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements.

他們將討論我們業務的財務業績和當前的市場環境。他們將在準備好的評論中參考網絡廣播演示文稿，然後我們將回答您的問題。在我將電話轉給 Alan 之前，我想提請您注意網絡廣播演示文稿末尾的解釋性說明。我們今天的演講包括前瞻性陳述。

The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in the Investors section on our website.

公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，並不是對未來業績的保證。由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿和我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 報告中的前瞻性陳述中有所描述。我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。同樣在我們的評論或對問題的回答中，我們可能會提到一些非 GAAP 財務指標。我們最近發布的收益新聞稿、財務補充資料和我們網站“投資者”部分提供的其他材料中均包含對賬。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

現在我想把電話轉給 Alan Schnitzer。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We're pleased to report this morning a solid bottom line for the quarter, exceptional results in our commercial businesses with higher full year core income and another quarter of attractive margins and strong growth, continued progress addressing the industry-wide loss pressures impacting the Personal Insurance business. Very strong production in all 3 of our business segments, resulting in consolidated net written premium growth of 10% for the quarter and another quarter of successful execution on a number of important strategic initiatives.

謝謝你，阿貝。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。我們今天早上很高興地報告本季度穩健的底線，我們的商業業務取得了出色的業績，全年核心收入更高，另一個季度的利潤率和強勁增長具有吸引力，在解決影響個人業務的全行業虧損壓力方面持續取得進展保險業務。我們所有 3 個業務部門的生產都非常強勁，導致本季度綜合淨承保保費增長 10%，並且在另一個季度成功執行了許多重要的戰略舉措。

Core income for the quarter was $810 million or $3.40 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 12.3%. These results include $362 million of after-tax catastrophe losses. Core income benefited from record net earned premiums of $8.8 billion, up 10% compared to the prior year period. Our solid underlying combined ratio of 91.4% reflects very strong performance in both of our commercial segments.

本季度核心收入為 8.1 億美元或每股攤薄收益 3.40 美元，核心股本回報率為 12.3%。這些結果包括 3.62 億美元的稅後巨災損失。核心收入受益於創紀錄的淨賺保費 88 億美元，比上年同期增長 10%。我們 91.4% 的穩固基礎綜合成本率反映了我們在兩個商業領域的強勁表現。

Looking at the 2 commercial segments together, the aggregate BI BSI underlying combined ratio was an excellent 88.3% for the quarter. You'll hear from Michael shortly about the progress we're making in Personal Insurance and the road map to improve profitability. For the full year, core income of $3 billion or $12.42 per diluted share benefited from higher core income in our commercial segments that was driven by record net earned premiums and strong profitability, including our best ever underlying combined ratio in Business Insurance.

將 2 個商業部門放在一起看，本季度 BI BSI 基礎綜合比率的總和為 88.3%，非常出色。您很快就會從邁克爾那裡聽到我們在人身保險方面取得的進展以及提高盈利能力的路線圖。全年，核心收益為 30 億美元或每股攤薄收益 12.42 美元，這得益於我們商業部門更高的核心收入，這是由創紀錄的淨賺取保費和強勁的盈利能力推動的，包括我們在商業保險領域有史以來最好的基礎綜合比率。

Our underwriting and investment results, together with our strong balance sheet enabled us to return nearly $3 billion of excess capital to shareholders, including more than $2 billion of share repurchases. At the same time, we grew adjusted book value per share and made important investments in our business.

我們的承銷和投資業績以及強勁的資產負債表使我們能夠向股東返還近 30 億美元的超額資本，包括超過 20 億美元的股票回購。與此同時，我們增加了調整後的每股賬面價值，並對我們的業務進行了重要投資。

Turning to the top line. Thanks once again to excellent execution by our colleagues in the field and the strong franchise value we offer to our customers and distribution partners. We grew net written premiums by 10% this quarter to $8.8 billion with all 3 segments contributing. In Business Insurance, net written premiums grew by 11% to $4.4 billion. Renewal premium change remained very strong at an historically high 10.1%. In the property line, which has received a lot of attention [post-in], renewal premium change accelerated month-by-month in the quarter. Even with continued strong pricing across the board, retention in BI reached a record high 88%. As you've heard us say before, strong retention is a sign of a stable and rational pricing environment.

轉向頂線。再次感謝我們在該領域的同事的出色執行以及我們為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的強大特許經營價值。本季度我們的淨承保保費增長了 10%，達到 88 億美元，所有 3 個部門都做出了貢獻。在商業保險方面，淨承保保費增長 11% 至 44 億美元。續約保費變化仍然非常強勁，達到 10.1% 的歷史高位。在受到大量關注的財產業務中，本季度續保保費變化逐月加快。即使全面定價持續強勁，BI 的保留率也達到了 88% 的歷史新高。正如您之前聽我們說過的那樣，強大的保留率是穩定和合理的定價環境的標誌。

New business in the segment of $558 million increased 10% from the prior year period. Given the attractive returns in the segment, we're pleased with the very strong retention of our high-quality book of business and the strong level of new business. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, net written premiums increased by 5% on a constant currency basis, driven by excellent production in our market-leading surety business, where net written premiums were up 18%. Production was also strong in our management liability business, with renewal premium change of 6.3%, retention of 90% and new business up 23% from a year ago.

該部門的新業務為 5.58 億美元，比上年同期增長 10%。鑑於該部門的誘人回報，我們對我們高質量業務簿的強勁保留和新業務的強勁水平感到滿意。在債券和專業保險方面，淨承保保費按固定匯率計算增長了 5%，這得益於我們市場領先的擔保業務的出色表現，該業務的淨承保保費增長了 18%。我們的管理責任業務也表現強勁，續保保費變化 6.3%，保留率 90%，新業務同比增長 23%。

In Personal Insurance, top line growth was driven by higher pricing. Renewal premium change was meaningfully higher both year-over-year and sequentially as we continue to address the industry-wide loss pressure. Renewal premium change alone contributed more than $1 billion of written premium to our portfolio over the past year. With another quarter of impressive production in each of our segments, we feel very well positioned for the new year. You'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results.

在人身保險方面，收入增長是由更高的定價推動的。隨著我們繼續應對全行業的損失壓力，續保保費變化同比和環比都顯著增加。在過去一年中，僅續保保費變動就為我們的投資組合貢獻了超過 10 億美元的承保保費。隨著我們每個部門又四分之一的令人印象深刻的生產，我們為新的一年做好了準備。您很快就會從 Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 那裡聽到更多有關我們部門業績的信息。

Our 2022 results cap off a decade of strong and consistent performance. We posted a double-digit return on equity in every year over the last decade with the exception of 2017, a difficult CAT year for the industry in which we posted a 9% ROE. In every one of those years, we comfortably covered our cost of equity. And over the last 6 years, we have significantly increased our rate of top line growth. We've accomplished all of this with industry low volatility. Successfully investing in differentiating capabilities has been a significant focus for us and an important contributor to our success. As you can see on Slide 24, over the past 5 years, we have meaningfully increased our overall technology spend. At the same time, through our strategic focus on productivity and efficiency, we have significantly reduced our expense ratio.

我們 2022 年的業績為十年來強勁而穩定的業績畫上了句號。在過去十年中，我們每年都實現兩位數的股本回報率，但 2017 年除外，這是行業艱難的 CAT 年，我們發布了 9% 的股本回報率。在那些年中的每一年，我們都輕鬆地支付了股權成本。在過去的 6 年裡，我們顯著提高了我們的收入增長率。我們以行業低波動性完成了所有這一切。成功地投資於差異化能力一直是我們的重點，也是我們成功的重要因素。正如您在幻燈片 24 中看到的那樣，在過去 5 年中，我們顯著增加了整體技術支出。同時，通過我們對生產力和效率的戰略關注，我們顯著降低了費用率。

In addition, we have improved the mix of our technology spend, increasing our spending on strategic initiatives by nearly 70%, while holding routine but necessary expenditures about flat. The consistency of our results also benefit from the diversification of our business across our 3 segments. If we look back at the combined ratio over the last 10 years, in 5 of those years, Personal Insurance outperformed business insurance. In the other 5 years, Business Insurance outperformed Personal Insurance. And our Bond & Specialty business delivered spectacular results in every one of those years.

此外，我們還改善了技術支出的組合，將戰略計劃的支出增加了近 70%，同時保持常規但必要的支出基本持平。我們結果的一致性也得益於我們在 3 個部門的業務多元化。如果我們回顧過去 10 年的綜合比率，其中 5 年，人身保險的表現優於商業保險。在其他 5 年中，商業保險的表現優於人身保險。我們的債券和特種業務在這些年的每一年都取得了驚人的成績。

The depth and breadth of our diversified businesses is a key advantage and would be very difficult to replicate. Speaking of our business profile, given the economic instability and geopolitical risk around the world, we feel very good about our concentration in North America, the largest, most advanced and most stable economy in the world, where we have the pole position and plenty of room to grow. With uncertain economic conditions ahead, I'll also note, we have a strong track record of performance through a variety of challenging environments over many years. We've got the experience, the know-how and the capabilities along with an efficient operating model and a rock-solid balance sheet to manage through whatever comes our way.

我們多元化業務的深度和廣度是一個關鍵優勢，很難復制。說到我們的業務概況，鑑於全球經濟不穩定和地緣政治風險，我們對我們集中在北美這個世界上最大、最先進和最穩定的經濟體感到非常滿意，我們在那裡擁有領先地位和大量成長的空間。我還要指出，在未來經濟形勢不確定的情況下，多年來我們在各種具有挑戰性的環境中都有良好的業績記錄。我們擁有豐富的經驗、專業知識和能力，以及高效的運營模式和堅如磐石的資產負債表，可以應對我們遇到的任何問題。

To sum things up, I'm grateful to my more than 30,000 colleagues for all they've accomplished this year and over time. Given our strong foundation, our track record of successful innovation and our ambitious road map, we are very confident in the outlook for Travelers.

總而言之，我要感謝我的 30,000 多名同事，感謝他們今年以來所取得的成就。鑑於我們堅實的基礎、成功創新的記錄和雄心勃勃的路線圖，我們對 Travellers 的前景充滿信心。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

有了這個，我很高興把電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Alan. Core income for the fourth quarter was $810 million, a very strong result considering the significant impact of CAT 73, the winter storm that occurred in late December. Core income for the full year was $3 billion. For the quarter, core return on equity was 12.3%, including the 5.9 percentage point adverse impact of CAT 73. For the full year, core ROE was 11.3%. As you heard from Alan, our consistently strong performance has delivered double-digit core ROE in 9 of the past 10 years, averaging 12.6% over that time frame, and our adjusted book value per share has nearly doubled over the past decade.

謝謝你，艾倫。第四季度的核心收入為 8.1 億美元，考慮到 12 月底發生的冬季風暴 CAT 73 的重大影響，這是一個非常強勁的結果。全年核心收入為 30 億美元。本季度，核心股本回報率為 12.3%，包括 CAT 73 的 5.9 個百分點的不利影響。全年核心股本回報率為 11.3%。正如您從艾倫那裡聽到的那樣，我們一貫的強勁表現在過去 10 年中的 9 年中實現了兩位數的核心股本回報率，在此期間平均為 12.6%，我們調整後的每股賬面價值在過去十年中幾乎翻了一番。

For the quarter, underlying underwriting income of $723 million pretax reflected higher levels of earned premium in all 3 segments and a consolidated underlying combined ratio of 91.4%. Terrific underlying combined ratios in both Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty were offset by results in Personal Insurance. Results in all 3 segments reflected the benefit of earned price that exceeded loss trend. One additional comment on underlying underwriting income. Prior to 2020, the highest level of full year underlying underwriting income we had ever reported was $1.5 billion after tax.

本季度，7.23 億美元的稅前基礎承保收入反映了所有 3 個分部較高的已賺保費水平和 91.4% 的綜合基礎綜合比率。商業保險和債券與專業的出色基礎綜合比率被人身保險的業績所抵消。所有 3 個細分市場的結果都反映了超出損失趨勢的已賺價格的收益。關於基礎承保收入的補充評論。 2020 年之前，我們報告過的最高全年基本承保收入為稅後 15 億美元。

Despite the significant adverse impact of elevated inflation on profitability in Personal Insurance, 2022 marks the third consecutive year with underlying underwriting income above $2 billion after tax. Simply put, our increased premium volumes and diversified portfolio of businesses are generating underwriting profit dollars at a completely different level than where we were just a few years ago. The fourth quarter expense ratio of 27.9% brings the full year expense ratio of 28.5%, our lowest full year expense ratio ever. As we've discussed previously, improvement in the expense ratio has not been achieved through cutting corners or artificially managing expenses for the short term. Rather, we have made and continue to make significant investments in technology and other strategic initiatives that we believe will drive our continued success. Our ongoing focus on productivity and efficiency has improved our operating leverage.

儘管通脹上升對人身保險的盈利能力產生了重大不利影響，但 2022 年是連續第三年稅後基本承保收入超過 20 億美元。簡而言之，我們增加的保費量和多元化的業務組合正在產生與幾年前完全不同的水平的承保利潤美元。第四季度的費用率為 27.9%，全年費用率為 28.5%，這是我們有史以來最低的全年費用率。正如我們之前所討論的，費用率的改善並沒有通過偷工減料或人為地管理短期費用來實現。相反，我們已經並將繼續對我們認為將推動我們持續成功的技術和其他戰略舉措進行重大投資。我們對生產力和效率的持續關注提高了我們的運營槓桿。

Looking ahead to 2023, we're very comfortable with an expected full year expense ratio in the range of 28.5% to 29%. Our fourth quarter CAT losses were $459 million pretax. Activity in the quarter was driven by $512 million from the large winter storm in late December, which impacted most of the U.S. as well as Canada. While our losses from this event were significant, but were not outsized relative to our modeled estimates for a storm of this size and intensity.

展望 2023 年，我們對 28.5% 至 29% 的預期全年費用率感到非常滿意。我們第四季度的 CAT 虧損為稅前 4.59 億美元。本季度的活動受到 12 月下旬冬季風暴造成的 5.12 億美元的推動，這場風暴影響了美國和加拿大的大部分地區。雖然我們在這次事件中的損失是巨大的，但相對於我們對這種規模和強度的風暴的模型估計來說並沒有太大。

Turning to prior year reserve development, we had net favorable development of $185 million pretax on a consolidated basis. In Business Insurance, net favorable PYD of $127 million was driven by better-than-expected loss experience in workers' comp across multiple accident years, partially offset by increased loss estimates for general liability coverages, primarily umbrella, where year-over-year inflation has resulted in more losses reaching excess layers of coverage. The Bond & Specialty segment saw a net favorable development of $51 million, while in Personal Insurance, we recorded net favorable PYD of $7 million.

談到前一年的儲備開發，我們在綜合基礎上獲得了 1.85 億美元的稅前淨有利開發。在商業保險方面，淨有利的 PYD 為 1.27 億美元，這是由於多個事故年的工人補償損失經驗好於預期，部分被一般責任保險損失估計增加所抵消，主要是雨傘，其中同比通貨膨脹導致更多的損失達到覆蓋層的過多。債券和專業業務部門的淨有利發展為 5100 萬美元，而在人身保險方面，我們錄得 700 萬美元的淨有利 PYD。

After-tax net investment income of $531 million reflected another quarter of improving returns and higher invested assets in the fixed income portfolio and modest returns in the alternative portfolio, which we expected given the downturn in the broader equity markets that occurred during the third quarter. Looking forward to 2023, we expect after-tax fixed income NII, including earnings from short-term securities to average about $535 million per quarter with an estimated $515 million in Q1, growing to an estimated $560 million in Q4.

5.31 億美元的稅後淨投資收入反映了另一個季度回報的改善和固定收益投資組合中更高的投資資產以及另類投資組合的適度回報，鑑於第三季度更廣泛的股票市場出現低迷，我們預計會出現這種情況。展望 2023 年，我們預計包括短期證券收益在內的稅後固定收益 NII 每季度平均約為 5.35 億美元，其中第一季度估計為 5.15 億美元，第四季度估計增長至 5.6 億美元。

Page 21 of the webcast presentation provides information about our January 1 CAT Treaty renewals. Our long-standing corporate CAT XOL Treaty continues to provide coverage for both single CAT events and the aggregation of losses from multiple CAT events. Consistent with the increase in our annual net written premium volume for property, we increased our retention level to $3.5 billion from the prior $3 billion level. The Treaty provides 100% coverage for the $2 billion layer above the $3.5 billion retention. The per occurrence loss deductible remains unchanged at $100 million. We did not renew the underlying property aggregate catastrophe XOL Treaty, which was only 45% placed in 2022. As we've said previously, we believe that a hardening reinsurance market provides a relative advantage for Travelers.

網絡廣播演示文稿的第 21 頁提供了有關 1 月 1 日 CAT 條約續籤的信息。我們長期存在的公司 CAT XOL 條約繼續為單個 CAT 事件和多個 CAT 事件造成的損失匯總提供保障。與我們年度財產淨承保保費量的增長一致，我們將保留水平從之前的 30 億美元提高到 35 億美元。該條約為 35 億美元保留金之上的 20 億美元層提供 100% 的覆蓋。每次事故的損失免賠額保持不變，仍為 1 億美元。我們沒有續簽基礎財產綜合災難 XOL 條約，該條約在 2022 年僅佔 45%。正如我們之前所說，我們認為再保險市場的堅挺為旅行者提供了相對優勢。

Our consistently strong underwriting results give us an advantage in terms of reinsurance pricing and capacity. That, combined with the fact that we buy less reinsurance than most of our peers gives us a cost of good sold advantage. We can let that fall to the bottom line or reflected in pricing without compromising our return objectives, making us more competitive for attractive new business opportunities.

我們一貫強勁的承保業績使我們在再保險定價和承保能力方面具有優勢。再加上我們購買的再保險比大多數同行少這一事實，使我們具有良好銷售優勢的成本。我們可以在不影響我們的回報目標的情況下將其降到底線或反映在定價中，從而使我們在有吸引力的新商機方面更具競爭力。

Overall, while property reinsurance pricing was higher when we consider the level of price increase as well as changes in terms and conditions we are obtaining on our direct written business, we do not expect a noticeable impact on our net underlying loss ratio for property. Also related to the overall reinsurance market as well as the E&S market, you'll recall that in 2021, we took a minority ownership stake in Fidelis Effective January 1, 2023, we have separately entered into an agreement with Fidelis, whereby Travelers will take a 20% quota share on policies issued by Fidelis with effective dates in 2023. The market for Fidelis products is probably as favorable as it has been in 20 years or so, and the market was impacted by 9/11, dot-com collapse and Hurricane Katrina.

總體而言，雖然當我們考慮價格上漲水平以及我們在直接書面業務中獲得的條款和條件的變化時，財產再保險定價更高，但我們預計不會對我們的財產淨基礎損失率產生顯著影響。同樣與整個再保險市場以及 E&S 市場相關，您會記得，在 2021 年，我們獲得了 Fidelis 的少數股權，自 2023 年 1 月 1 日起生效，我們與 Fidelis 單獨簽訂了一項協議，Travelers 將持有Fidelis 發布的政策的 20% 配額份額，生效日期為 2023 年。Fidelis 產品的市場可能與 20 年左右一樣有利，市場受到 9/11、互聯網泡沫破裂和卡特里娜颶風。

This quota share arrangement allows us to participate in the hard market, while also accelerating our understanding of this marketplace. While strategically valuable and expected to be accretive to earnings, the quota share deal is not expected to have a significant impact on our consolidated financial results. Our portion of net written premiums from Fidelis is expected to be around $550 million to $600 million for the full year, and those premiums will be reflected within the international results of Business Insurance.

這種配額份額安排使我們能夠參與硬市場，同時也加速了我們對這個市場的了解。雖然具有戰略價值並有望增加收益，但配額份額交易預計不會對我們的綜合財務業績產生重大影響。我們全年從 Fidelis 獲得的淨承保保費部分預計約為 5.5 億至 6 億美元，這些保費將反映在商業保險的國際業績中。

Detailed terms of the quota share have not been disclosed, but we can share that there is a loss ratio cap to ensure that even a worst case underwriting scenario is boxed to a very manageable impact on Travelers. Turning to capital management. Operating cash flow for the quarter of $1.3 billion was again very strong. All our capital ratios were at or better than target levels, and we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion.

配額份額的詳細條款尚未披露，但我們可以分享的是，有一個損失率上限，以確保即使是最壞的承保情況也能對 Travelers 產生非常可控的影響。轉向資本管理。本季度 13 億美元的運營現金流再次非常強勁。我們所有的資本比率都達到或優於目標水平，本季度末我們的控股公司流動資金約為 15 億美元。

For the full year, operating cash flow was once again very strong at $6.5 billion, reflecting the benefit of continued increases in premium volume, strong profitability and paid losses that for the full year were once again less than 90% of incurred losses. As we've said previously, we are assuming that this lower level of payment activity is ultimately a timing issue. In establishing our reserves and pricing our products, we assume that elevated severity related to social inflation has not abated at all. Our substantial cash flows give us the flexibility to continue to make important investments in our business, return excess capital to our shareholders and grow our investment portfolio, which increased to $86.7 billion, excluding net unrealized losses at year-end.

全年，經營現金流再次非常強勁，達到 65 億美元，反映了保費量持續增長、強勁盈利能力和全年支付虧損再次低於已發生虧損的 90% 的好處。正如我們之前所說，我們假設這種較低水平的支付活動最終是一個時間問題。在建立我們的儲備和為我們的產品定價時，我們假設與社會通貨膨脹相關的加劇的嚴重性根本沒有減弱。我們大量的現金流使我們能夠靈活地繼續對我們的業務進行重要投資，將多餘的資本返還給我們的股東並擴大我們的投資組合，增加到 867 億美元，不包括年末未實現的淨虧損。

Interest rates increased slightly during the fourth quarter, but spreads narrowed, and accordingly, our net unrealized investment loss decreased from $6.3 billion after tax as of September 30 to $4.9 billion after tax at year-end. Adjusted book value per share, which excludes unrealized investment gains and losses was $114 at year-end, up 4% from a year ago. We returned $721 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter, comprising dividends of $220 million and share repurchases of $501 million.

第四季度利率略有上升，但息差收窄，因此，我們的淨未實現投資虧損從 9 月 30 日的稅後 63 億美元減少到年底的稅後 49 億美元。調整後的每股賬面價值（不包括未實現的投資收益和損失）在年底為 114 美元，比去年同期增長 4%。本季度我們向股東返還了 7.21 億美元的資本，其中包括 2.2 億美元的股息和 5.01 億美元的股票回購。

For the year, we returned $2.9 billion of capital to shareholders, including $2.1 billion of share repurchases. Overall, we had another very good year with strong top line growth in all 3 business segments, excellent and improved margins in our commercial businesses, our best ever expense ratio and a very strong balance sheet that has us well positioned for whatever economic conditions the future may bring.

這一年，我們向股東返還了 29 億美元的資本，其中包括 21 億美元的股票回購。總體而言，我們又度過了一個非常美好的一年，所有 3 個業務部門的收入都實現了強勁增長，商業業務的利潤率出色且有所提高，我們有史以來最好的費用率以及非常強大的資產負債表，使我們能夠在未來的任何經濟條件下做好準備可能帶來。

Now I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of business insurance.

現在，我將把電話轉給格雷格，討論商業保險。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance had another strong quarter, rounding a terrific year in terms of financial results, execution in the marketplace and progress on our strategic initiatives. We're firing on all cylinders. Segment income for the quarter was $725 million with an all-in combined ratio of 89.5%, both great results. We're once again particularly pleased with our exceptional underlying combined ratio, which was also 89.5%, an all-time best fourth quarter result.

謝謝，丹。 Business Insurance 又迎來了一個強勁的季度，在財務業績、市場執行力和我們戰略計劃的進展方面為這一年畫上了圓滿的句號。我們全力以赴。本季度的部門收入為 7.25 億美元，綜合綜合比率為 89.5%，均取得了不錯的成績。我們再次對我們出色的基礎綜合比率感到特別滿意，該比率也是 89.5%，創歷史最佳第四季度業績。

The underlying loss ratio increased by a little more than 0.5 point as the benefit of earned pricing was more than offset by the comparison to the prior year quarter, which benefited from both a particularly low level of property losses and the favorable impact associated with the pandemic. The increase in the underlying loss ratio was more than offset by a lower expense ratio that benefited from our ongoing strategic focus on productivity and efficiency. Net written premiums for the quarter were up 11% from the prior year quarter to a fourth quarter record of $4.4 billion, benefiting from strong renewal premium change, high retention and an increase in new business levels.

基本損失率增加了略高於 0.5 個百分點，因為與去年同期相比，賺取定價的好處被抵消了，這得益於特別低的財產損失水平和與大流行相關的有利影響.潛在損失率的增加被較低的費用率所抵消，這得益於我們對生產力和效率的持續戰略關注。本季度淨承保保費較上年同期增長 11%，達到創紀錄的第四季度 44 億美元，這得益於強勁的續保保費變化、高保留率和新業務水平的提高。

Turning to domestic production for the quarter. Renewal premium change was once again historically high at 10.1%, with renewal rechange of 4.5% and record growth in exposure. Retention reached an all-time high at 88%. New business of $558 million was the strongest fourth quarter we've ever produced. At the product level, in addition to what you heard from Alan about pricing in the property line, terms and conditions and the line tightened over the course of the quarter, further improving the price per unit of risk. While not reflected in our production metrics, this improvement in the price per unit of risk will contribute to our profitability over time.

轉向本季度的國內生產。續保保費變化再次創歷史新高，達到 10.1%，續保保費變化為 4.5%，風險敞口增長創歷史新高。留存率達到 88% 的歷史新高。 5.58 億美元的新業務是我們有史以來最強勁的第四季度。在產品層面，除了你從艾倫那裡聽到的關於財產險定價、條款和條件以及本季度收緊的險種之外，進一步提高了每單位風險的價格。雖然沒有反映在我們的生產指標中，但隨著時間的推移，每單位風險價格的改善將有助於我們的盈利能力。

In workers' comp, renewal rate change was a little more negative than we've seen in recent quarters, which is a reflection of the strong profitability in the line and the benefit of continued strong exposure growth. Overall, workers' comp renewal premium change was positive in the mid-single-digit range and actually a little higher year-over-year. We're pleased with these strong production results and the excellent execution by our colleagues in the field.

在工人薪酬方面，續約率的變化比我們最近幾個季度看到的要負一些，這反映了該行業的強勁盈利能力以及持續強勁的風險增長帶來的好處。總體而言，工人的補償續約保費變化在中個位數範圍內是積極的，實際上同比略高。我們對這些強勁的生產成果和我們在該領域的同事的出色執行感到滿意。

Given our high-quality book as well as several years of segmented rate increases, together with improvements in terms and conditions, we're thrilled to continue to achieve this historically strong retention levels. The pricing gains we achieved in the quarter reflect our deliberate execution, which balanced the persistent headwinds and uncertainty in the current environment with the improvement in profitability across our portfolio after several years of strong pricing. As always, we will continue to execute our granular pricing, careful management of deductibles, attachment points, limits, sublimits and exclusions to maintain profitable growth.

鑑於我們高質量的圖書以及幾年的分段費率增長，以及條款和條件的改進，我們很高興能夠繼續實現這一歷史性的強勁保留水平。我們在本季度取得的定價收益反映了我們有意識的執行，這平衡了當前環境中持續的不利因素和不確定性，以及經過幾年的強勁定價後我們整個投資組合的盈利能力有所提高。一如既往，我們將繼續執行細化定價，謹慎管理免賠額、附加點、限額、分限額和除外責任，以保持盈利增長。

As for the individual businesses, in select, both renewal premium change of 10.8% and retention of 83% were strong. New business was up 6% from the prior year quarter, driven primarily by the continued success of our BOP 2.0 product as well as growth in other lines. We're pleased with the progress we've made in improving the profitability of this business over the last couple of years, while continuing to invest for future growth.

至於個別業務，在選擇中，10.8% 的續訂保費變化和 83% 的保留率都很強勁。新業務較上年同期增長 6%，主要受我們 BOP 2.0 產品的持續成功以及其他產品線的增長推動。我們對過去幾年在提高該業務的盈利能力方面取得的進展感到滿意，同時繼續為未來增長進行投資。

In middle market, renewal premium change remained historically strong at 8.8%, while retention of 91% reached an all-time best. New business was up 13% from the prior year quarter. As for full year results, segment income of more than $2.5 billion was exceptional, benefiting from record earned premium in our best-ever underlying combined ratio.

在中端市場，續保保費變化保持在 8.8% 的歷史高位，而 91% 的保留率達到歷史最高水平。新業務較上年同期增長 13%。至於全年業績，超過 25 億美元的分部收入非常出色，這得益於我們有史以來最好的基礎綜合比率創紀錄的已賺溢價。

In addition, the top line of $17.6 billion and full year retention were both record highs, while new business premiums were near in all-time high. These results were driven by the successful execution of our thoughtful and deliberate strategies. And while delivering these financial and production results, we've also continued to invest in strategic capabilities that will enhance our many competitive advantages, designed to enable us to continue delivering profitable growth over time. For example, during the year, we advanced our already state-of-the-art product and service capabilities by continuing to roll out our BOP 2.0 product, which is now live in 46 states as well as launching our new commercial auto product in a handful of states. Both products contain industry-leading segmentation.

此外，176 億美元的收入和全年保留率均創歷史新高，而新業務保費接近歷史最高水平。這些結果是由我們深思熟慮和深思熟慮的戰略的成功執行推動的。在交付這些財務和生產成果的同時，我們還繼續投資戰略能力，以增強我們的許多競爭優勢，旨在使我們能夠隨著時間的推移繼續實現盈利增長。例如，在這一年中，我們通過繼續推出 BOP 2.0 產品（現已在 46 個州推出）以及以少數幾個州。這兩種產品都包含行業領先的細分。

In addition, we continue to make progress on developing industry-leading user experience capabilities to make it easier and more efficient for our distribution partners and customers to do business with us. In particular, in our middle market business, we advanced our capabilities around digitizing the underwriting transaction for our agents and brokers. And in our Small Commercial segment, we launched our new front-end rate quote and issue interface platform to make it faster and easier for our agents to write business with us, all while maintaining the underwriting discipline and specialization behind the scenes.

此外，我們在開發行業領先的用戶體驗能力方面繼續取得進展，使我們的分銷合作夥伴和客戶能夠更輕鬆、更高效地與我們開展業務。特別是，在我們的中間市場業務中，我們提高了圍繞代理人和經紀人的承銷交易數字化的能力。在我們的小型商業部門，我們推出了新的前端報價和發行接口平台，使我們的代理人能夠更快、更輕鬆地與我們進行業務往來，同時保持幕後的承保紀律和專業化。

And finally, we continued to improve our operating leverage through our relentless focus on productivity and efficiency, as I referenced earlier. I'll note that our full year expense ratio of 29.7% is down more than 2.5 points from the 2016 level. We're proud of these results and the team that produce them.

最後，正如我之前提到的，我們通過不懈地關註生產力和效率，繼續提高我們的運營槓桿。我會注意到，我們 29.7% 的全年費用比率比 2016 年的水平下降了 2.5 個百分點以上。我們為這些結果和產生這些結果的團隊感到自豪。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty ended a terrific 2022 with another great quarter on both the top and bottom lines. Segment income was $221 million, up 30% from the prior year quarter, driven by strong and higher earned premium and an exceptionally strong combined ratio, which benefited from a higher level of net favorable prior year reserve development. The underlying combined ratio was also strong and improved about 1.5 points from the prior year quarter to a terrific 81.7%, driven by the benefit of earned pricing.

謝謝，格雷格。 Bond & Specialty 在 2022 年以又一個出色的季度收入和利潤結束。分部收入為 2.21 億美元，比去年同期增長 30%，這得益於強勁和更高的已賺保費以及異常強勁的綜合比率，這得益於更高水平的去年淨有利儲備開發。在盈利定價的推動下，基礎綜合成本率也很強勁，比去年同期提高了約 1.5 個百分點，達到了驚人的 81.7%。

Turning to the top line. Net written premiums grew 5%, excluding the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates. Domestic Surety grew an outstanding 18% in the quarter, driven by an increase in the number of bonds issued and higher average bond premiums. In domestic management liability, given the strong returns, we're very pleased that we increased retention 1 point from last quarter to a near record 90%. That's a 4-point improvement from the prior year quarter.

轉向頂線。扣除匯率變動的影響，淨承保保費增長 5%。在發行債券數量增加和平均債券溢價上升的推動下，本季度國內擔保業務增長了 18%。在國內管理責任方面，鑑於強勁的回報，我們很高興我們將保留率比上一季度提高了 1 個百分點，達到接近創紀錄的 90%。這比去年同期提高了 4 個百分點。

Renewal premium change was solid at 6.3%, and we're also pleased that we increased new business 23% from the prior year quarter. Excluding FX, net written premium in our international business contracted modestly from the exceptionally strong fourth quarter of 2021, primarily due to the impact of the significant decline in merger and acquisition activity on our transactional liability book of business.

續訂保費變化穩定在 6.3%，我們也很高興我們的新業務比去年同期增加了 23%。不包括外彙在內，我們國際業務的淨承保保費自異常強勁的 2021 年第四季度以來小幅收縮，這主要是由於併購活動大幅減少對我們的交易負債業務的影響。

For the full year, Bond & Specialty produced record earned premiums and an outstanding combined ratio of 75.3%, driving segment income above $900 million for the first time ever. So for both the quarter and year, our results were terrific, driven by excellent execution, returns from our ongoing strategic investments in our competitive advantages and the market-leading value proposition that we offer our customers and distribution partners.

全年，Bond & Specialty 創造了創紀錄的已賺保費和 75.3% 的未償綜合比率，推動部門收入有史以來首次超過 9 億美元。因此，在本季度和本年度，我們的業績都非常出色，這得益於出色的執行力、我們對競爭優勢的持續戰略投資的回報以及我們為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的市場領先的價值主張。

And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

現在我會把電話轉給邁克爾。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In Personal Insurance, the fourth quarter loss of $61 million and a combined ratio of 105.3% were negatively impacted by the weather event in late December as well as elevated underlying loss activity in both automobile and homeowners and other. While our results aren't meeting our target returns, we are encouraged by our strong marketplace execution as we continue to respond to the loss environment with both increased pricing and non-rate actions.

謝謝，傑夫，大家早上好。在人身保險方面，第四季度虧損 6100 萬美元，綜合成本率為 105.3%，受到 12 月下旬天氣事件以及汽車和房主及其他潛在損失活動增加的負面影響。雖然我們的結果沒有達到我們的目標回報率，但我們對強大的市場執行力感到鼓舞，因為我們繼續通過提高定價和非利率行動來應對虧損環境。

Net written premiums for the quarter grew 13%, driven by double-digit renewal premium change in both domestic automobile and homeowners, reflecting our focus on improving profitability. In automobile, the fourth quarter combined ratio was 111.4%. As a reminder, while there is some seasonality in auto every quarter, the fourth quarter typically has an elevated loss ratio driven by things like holiday driving in Northeast winter weather.

本季度的淨承保保費增長了 13%，這得益於國內汽車和房主的兩位數續保保費變化，反映出我們對提高盈利能力的關注。汽車方面，第四季度綜合成本率為111.4%。提醒一下，雖然汽車行業每個季度都有一些季節性，但第四季度的損失率通常會因東北冬季天氣下的假日駕駛等因素而升高。

Over the last 10 years, the fourth quarter underlying loss ratio has been approximately 6 to 7 points above the average for the first 3 quarters. Seasonality aside, the underlying combined ratio of 110.5% increased 6.7 points from the fourth quarter of 2021, primarily related to the continued inflationary impact on vehicle replacement and repair costs, as well as increased claim frequency, which returns to pre-pandemic levels in the quarter and higher bodily injury severity.

在過去 10 年中，第四季度的基礎損失率比前三個季度的平均水平高出約 6 到 7 個百分點。撇開季節性因素，110.5% 的基礎綜合成本率比 2021 年第四季度增加了 6.7 個百分點，這主要與通貨膨脹對車輛更換和維修成本的持續影響以及索賠頻率增加有關，索賠頻率在 2021 年恢復到大流行前水平季度和更高的身體傷害嚴重程度。

These loss impacts were partially offset by the growing benefit of earned pricing and a 1 point reduction in the expense ratio. Separately, the current quarter results included a modest impact for the reestimation of prior quarters. We continue to factor our latest view of loss experience into our pricing actions going forward. In Homeowners and Other, the fourth quarter combined ratio was 99.4%. This was 21.6 points higher relative to the prior year quarter, driven by catastrophe losses that were [13 points, 2 points] higher than the prior year period and a higher underlying combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio of 82.2% increased 8.8 points. This increase was primarily driven by higher loss severity related to continued labor and material price increases as well as higher non-catastrophe weather losses. This loss pressure was partially offset by the current quarter benefit of earned pricing.

這些損失影響被賺取定價的收益增加和費用率降低 1 個百分點部分抵消。另外，當前季度的業績包括對前幾個季度重新估計的適度影響。我們繼續將我們對損失經驗的最新看法納入我們未來的定價行動。在房主和其他方面，第四季度的綜合成本率為 99.4%。這比去年同期高 21.6 個百分點，原因是巨災損失比去年同期高 [13 個百分點，2 個百分點] 和更高的基礎綜合比率。基礎綜合成本率為 82.2%，上升 8.8 個百分點。這一增長主要是由於與持續的勞動力和材料價格上漲以及非災難性天氣損失增加有關的損失嚴重程度增加所致。這一虧損壓力被本季度盈利定價的收益部分抵消了。

Turning to production. Quarterly results reflect our rate and non-rate actions as we seek to manage growth and improve profitability. In domestic automobile, retention moderated this quarter as renewal premium change increased 3 points from the third quarter to 11.4%. New business written premiums declined 3% compared to the prior year, and policies in force were essentially flat with last quarter as our additional rate and non-rate actions are taking effect.

轉向生產。季度業績反映了我們在尋求管理增長和提高盈利能力時的利率和非利率行動。在國內汽車中，由於續訂保費變化比第三季度增加 3 個百分點至 11.4%，本季度的保留率有所下降。與上一年相比，新業務承保保費下降了 3%，由於我們的額外利率和非利率行動正在生效，生效的保單與上一季度基本持平。

In domestic Homeowners and Other, we achieved renewal premium change of 14.5% in the fourth quarter. The retention remained strong at 84%. Slide 17 provides a graphical representation of renewal premium change in domestic automobile and homeowners and other. We added this view to highlight our progress with respect to renewal premium change over the last several quarters. The magnitude and speed of our pricing actions simultaneously across both lines of business is significant. As Alan mentioned, we have added over $1 billion of written premium to our portfolio in 2022 as a result of the high levels of renewal premium change. The benefits of this increased pricing will continue to earn into our results over time.

在國內房主和其他方面，我們在第四季度實現了 14.5% 的續保保費變化。保留率保持在 84%。幻燈片 17 提供了國內汽車和房主等的更新保費變化的圖形表示。我們添加此視圖是為了突出我們在過去幾個季度的續訂保費變化方面取得的進展。我們在兩個業務線同時採取定價行動的規模和速度都非常顯著。正如艾倫所提到的，由於續保保費的高水平變化，我們在 2022 年為我們的投資組合增加了超過 10 億美元的承保保費。隨著時間的推移，這種提高定價的好處將繼續為我們的業績帶來收益。

Looking ahead to 2023, renewal premium change in both lines of business will increase above these already very strong levels as we continue to take action to improve profitability. Consistent with our comments last quarter, we expect written pricing in auto to be adequate in states representing the majority of our business by midyear 2023.

展望 2023 年，隨著我們繼續採取行動提高盈利能力，兩條業務線的續保保費變化將超過這些已經非常強勁的水平。與我們上個季度的評論一致，我們預計到 2023 年年中，代表我們大部分業務的州的汽車書面定價將是足夠的。

In 2022, our team met a challenging environment head-on and took action to address rising costs. We are confident that the actions we have taken and will continue to take will drive improved profitability as we move through 2023 and beyond.

2022年，我們的團隊直面充滿挑戰的環境，並採取行動應對成本上升。我們相信，我們已經採取並將繼續採取的行動將在 2023 年及以後推動盈利能力的提高。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Abbe。

Thanks very much, and we're happy to open up for your questions now.

非常感謝，我們很高興現在開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Greg Peters with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自格雷格·彼得斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

It's Greg Peters. I guess I'll start with the first question on Business Insurance and the growth. You produced some outstanding results in all of your segments and for '22. And there's a bunch of factors that we're considering as we think about the outlook for '23 and '24. We're watching, obviously, as you are the renewal premium change. We're also watching the rate change on renewals. And I'm curious, when you look about -- when you think about '23, what are some of the factors that you think might influence your top line results in Business Insurance?

我是格雷格·彼得斯。我想我將從關於商業保險和增長的第一個問題開始。您在所有細分市場和 22 年都取得了出色的成績。在考慮 23 和 24 年的前景時，我們正在考慮許多因素。顯然，我們正在關注續訂保費的變化。我們也在關注續訂費率的變化。而且我很好奇，當您查看時 - 當您考慮 23 年時，您認為哪些因素可能會影響您在商業保險方面的最高業績？

Yes, Greg, and thank you for the question. Let me just go back to basics and just talk about how we approach this business because we don't approach it with a grower shrink mentality, we approach it with an overall approach to the marketplace. So we look at our business and we want to keep our best business, and you can see our retention this quarter was off the charts, which is a reflection of how we feel about that book of business. We want to improve the returns on the business that need it, and so we want to execute at a very granular, very thoughtful, very strategic level in terms of price and rate in RPC.

是的，格雷格，謝謝你提出這個問題。讓我回到基礎，談談我們如何處理這項業務，因為我們不以種植者縮水的心態來處理它，我們以整體市場方式處理它。所以我們審視我們的業務，我們希望保持我們最好的業務，你可以看到本季度我們的保留率超出了圖表，這反映了我們對那本業務的看法。我們希望提高需要它的業務的回報，因此我們希望在 RPC 的價格和費率方面以非常細化、非常周到、非常具有戰略意義的水平執行。

And then by investing in franchise value and through a lot of hustle in the marketplace, we want to make sure that we're generating attractive new business opportunities. And we're going to -- we did that in '22 and the results have been fantastic. We're going to do it again in '23, and we're very confident about that.

然後通過投資於特許經營價值並通過市場上的大量喧囂，我們希望確保我們正在創造有吸引力的新商機。我們將 - 我們在 22 年做到了，結果非常棒。我們將在 23 年再次這樣做，我們對此非常有信心。

And let me spend just a second on the pricing environment because that seemed like it was part of your question, and I've seen a number of you write about it this morning. So I think it's hard to characterize this pricing environment as anything other than very strong. At 10.1% that RPC is spot on an 8-quarter average. So incredibly stable and near record levels. Small movements between pure rate and exposure, but I would emphasize small movements between rate and exposure. The breadth of the pricing gains across our book is very strong and very consistent. I don't think you can assess the pricing environment without looking at retention and given where that is, literally record levels and given the profitability very strong.

讓我花點時間談談定價環境，因為這似乎是你問題的一部分，而且我今天早上看到你們中的很多人都寫過這個問題。因此，我認為很難將這種定價環境描述為非常強勁。 RPC 為 10.1%，處於 8 個季度的平均值。如此令人難以置信的穩定和接近創紀錄的水平。純速率和曝光之間的小運動，但我會強調速率和曝光之間的小運動。我們書中定價收益的廣度非常強大且非常一致。我不認為你可以在不考慮保留率的情況下評估定價環境，並且考慮到它的位置，從字面上記錄水平並考慮到非常強勁的盈利能力。

The pricing gains that we achieved were broad-based, led by property, auto, umbrella and CMP. And then you take all that against the margins that we printed and we just -- we feel fantastic about the pricing and the overall execution this year. And again, we're going to go out and do it again in '23.

我們實現的定價收益基礎廣泛，以房地產、汽車、傘和 CMP 為首。然後你將所有這些與我們打印的利潤率相提並論，我們只是 - 我們對今年的定價和整體執行感到非常滿意。再說一次，我們將在 23 年再次出擊。

Just a point -- in your answer, you mentioned the renewal premium change. Can you talk about your perspective on what's going on with the renewal rate change, which seems to be trending down?

只是一點——在你的回答中，你提到了續訂保費的變化。您能否談談您對續訂率變化的看法，續訂率似乎呈下降趨勢？

Yes. Again, we're executing at a very granular level, looking at what it is we need to do by account. And you look at that 10.1% overall renewal premium change, very strong near-record levels. And the fact that there's a little bit of movement back and forth between rate and exposure to us almost inconsequential. So you can look at that 0.5 point of change in isolation and try to make something out of it. We look at the overall production picture, and it just looks fantastic. So -- and again, Greg made a really important comment in his remarks, which is we're -- the execution you see is balancing a bunch of things going on. On the one hand, there's headwinds and some uncertainty. We've got inflation in the marketplace, supply chain is -- hasn't returned to pre-pandemic levels. We've got weather volatility. We've got reinsurance. We've got social inflation we've talked about over the years.

是的。同樣，我們在非常精細的級別上執行，查看我們需要按帳戶執行的操作。你會看到 10.1% 的整體續訂保費變化，非常強勁，接近創紀錄水平。事實上，在利率和對我們的風險敞口之間來回移動一點點幾乎無關緊要。因此，您可以孤立地查看 0.5 點的變化，並嘗試從中獲益。我們看一下整體生產圖片，它看起來棒極了。所以 - 格雷格再次在他的評論中發表了一個非常重要的評論，那就是我們 - 你看到的執行正在平衡一系列正在發生的事情。一方面，存在逆風和一些不確定性。我們的市場出現了通貨膨脹，供應鏈還沒有恢復到大流行前的水平。我們有天氣波動。我們有再保險。多年來我們一直在談論社會通貨膨脹。

So on one hand, that continues to be a headwind for us, and we take that into account. But on the other hand, we've got a bunch of years of very strong pricing and look at where the margins are today. So that -- the rate change of 4.5% and the overall RPC doesn't happen to us. That's a very deliberate execution on our part, taking into account everything that we see in front of us.

因此，一方面，這對我們來說仍然是一個不利因素，我們會考慮到這一點。但另一方面，我們有很多年非常強勁的定價，看看今天的利潤率在哪裡。因此，4.5% 的速率變化和整體 RPC 不會發生在我們身上。考慮到我們在我們面前看到的一切，這是我們非常慎重的執行。

Great. And just the last clarification point. You talked about the inflation factors. And I think in the comments, you mentioned there are some issues in umbrella, minor issues. What's your view on inflation trends as it might affect the reserve levels for '23 relative to what your assumptions may have been last year? That's it.

偉大的。最後一點澄清。你談到了通貨膨脹因素。我認為在評論中，您提到了保護傘中存在一些小問題。您對通貨膨脹趨勢有何看法，因為它可能會影響 23 年相對於您去年的假設的準備金水平？就是這樣。

Greg, it's Dan. So I don't think anything terribly surprising. And I guess I'd step back and look at reserve development over the course of 2022 and say, full year number, $650 million of favorable reserve development. Of course, there are some lines that are going to develop a little better and some that are going to develop a little worse, but $650 million over the course of the year, favorable development in all 3 segments of the business, umbrella, not really different than our overall thesis, but sort of the degree to which severity moved was a little more than we expected. So as we usually do, we're trying to look at the data as quickly as possible and react as quickly as possible and all of that inside of a net favorable PYD. So we're feeling very good about where the balance sheet is.

格雷格，是丹。所以我認為沒有什麼特別令人驚訝的。而且我想我會退後一步，看看 2022 年的儲量開發，並說，全年數字為 6.5 億美元的有利儲量開發。當然，有些線路會發展得更好一些，有些會發展得更差一些，但全年 6.5 億美元，業務的所有 3 個部分都有良好的發展，保護傘，不是真的與我們的整體論點不同，但嚴重程度移動的程度有點超出我們的預期。因此，正如我們通常所做的那樣，我們正在嘗試盡快查看數據並儘快做出反應，所有這些都在淨有利的 PYD 內。所以我們對資產負債表的位置感覺非常好。

Our next question comes from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

First question, just around the excess capital position. Historically, the company has been able to easily return operating earnings and then in some years, even more than debt of shareholders. We've never seen this level of, first of all, exposure growth and also just seeing the retention go up on the property CAT Treaty, are we at a point yet where I guess the growth and the risk of the business could start to impact capital return decisions?

第一個問題，圍繞過剩的資本頭寸。從歷史上看，該公司能夠輕鬆返還營業利潤，然後在某些年份甚至超過股東的債務。首先，我們從未見過這種程度的風險敞口增長，而且只是看到財產 CAT 條約的保留率上升，我們是否處於我猜業務增長和風險可能開始影響的地步資本回報決定？

Ryan, it's Dan. Yes, look, I think we've talked even a couple of years ago about the fact that we were seeing an increase in the level of top line growth. We knew we were going to need to hold more capital to reflect both a bigger top line book of business, which brings with it a higher level of reserves on the balance sheet. And so we said at that time, look, don't expect us to continue to be able to return nearly 100% in terms of operating earnings between buybacks and dividends. I think what you see in 2022, in particular, is the fact that we had a good strong capital position coming out of 2021. Remember, earnings in the fourth quarter of last year were tremendously strong. So we probably exited last year with a little more capital than we might have forecasted we were going to end the year.

瑞安，是丹。是的，看，我想我們甚至在幾年前就談到了我們看到收入增長水平有所提高的事實。我們知道我們將需要持有更多資本以反映更大的頂線業務賬簿，這會在資產負債表上帶來更高水平的儲備。所以我們當時說，看，不要指望我們能夠繼續在回購和股息之間的營業收入方面獲得近 100% 的回報。我認為你在 2022 年特別看到的是，我們在 2021 年擁有良好的資本狀況。請記住，去年第四季度的收益非常強勁。因此，我們去年退出時的資本可能比我們預測的年底要多一點。

So what we're doing in 2022 with capital management and as we go into '23 is considering all the things that you just said, continued outlook for top line growth, where the balance sheet is from a reserve perspective, what our reinsurance programs are and what our property exposures look like. And we were very comfortable returning what we just did in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們在 2022 年進行的資本管理工作以及進入 23 年時正在考慮您剛才所說的所有事情，收入增長的持續前景，資產負債表從準備金的角度來看，我們的再保險計劃是什麼以及我們的財產風險是什麼樣的。我們很樂意回歸我們在第四季度所做的事情。

Got it. And then a follow-up for Michael. Just thinking about the rate you're taking on the home side, is there a way to kind of compartmentalize that in terms of how much of the rate is toward attritional type losses versus how much is budgeting for higher caps? I'm not sure if there is, but I'd be curious if you had any perspective on that.

知道了。然後是邁克爾的後續行動。想想你在主場採取的利率，有沒有一種方法可以根據多少利率用於消耗型損失與多少用於更高上限的預算來區分？我不確定是否有，但我很好奇你是否對此有任何看法。

Sure, Ryan. Thanks for the question. I would say, broadly speaking, it's sort of hard to compartmentalize because the majority of the rate we're taking is base rate. Now again, the numbers that we give you are renewal premium change. So just to clarify, right, renewal premium change is rate and values, and we've talked about the fact that the RPC numbers that you see certainly include both. And our outlook for 2023, where we indicate that renewal premium change is going to go north from here, is driven by further increases in both rate and values. But in terms of attritional loss versus cat loss, again, it's fairly broad-based rate across the book. So there's not really a significant differentiation there.

當然，瑞安。謝謝你的問題。我會說，從廣義上講，很難劃分，因為我們採用的大部分利率都是基本利率。再一次，我們給你的數字是續訂保費變化。因此，為了澄清，續訂保費變化是費率和價值，我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即您看到的 RPC 數字肯定包括兩者。我們對 2023 年的展望表明，續保保費變化將從這裡開始，這是由費率和價值的進一步增長推動的。但就自然損失與巨額損失而言，這又是全書範圍相當廣泛的比率。所以那裡並沒有真正的顯著差異。

Our next question comes from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

Michael -- or actually, Dan, sorry about that. Dan, could you just elaborate a little bit more on the financial impact of nonrenewing the aggregate reinsurance outside of a higher potential catastrophe load? I think when you put it on, there was a 50 basis point headwind to the underlying combined ratio, which obviously was offset by lower cat load, but that was back in 2019, so I'm sure it's changed. Doesn't sound like you expect a noticeable impact on the property loss ratio or the total company expense ratio. So just wondering if you could just sort of talk through the puts and takes of nonrenewing that aggregate.

邁克爾——或者實際上，丹，對此感到抱歉。丹，你能不能再詳細說明一下，除了更高的潛在巨災負荷之外，不更新總再保險的財務影響？我想當你把它放在上面時，基礎綜合比率有 50 個基點的逆風，這顯然被較低的貓負荷所抵消，但那是在 2019 年，所以我確信它已經改變了。聽起來您並不期望對財產損失率或公司總費用率產生顯著影響。所以只是想知道你是否可以通過 puts 和 takes 來談談非更新該聚合。

Sure, David. So a couple of things. In 2022, we did not attach the treaty, right? So we didn't hit the underlying, so it didn't have any beneficial impact in 2022 results. You're right that when we first entered into the treaty, which was at the beginning of 2019, we said at the time that the impact of the incremental ceded premium from that treaty was going to have about 0.5 point adverse impact on underlying results because of the impact on the denominator.

當然，大衛。所以有幾件事。 2022年，我們沒有附上條約吧？所以我們沒有觸及基礎，所以它對 2022 年的業績沒有任何有利影響。你是對的，當我們在 2019 年初首次簽署該條約時，我們當時說該條約的增量讓渡溢價的影響將對基本結果產生大約 0.5 個百分點的不利影響，因為對分母的影響。

In 2019, we told you that we placed -- it's the same $500 million layer in all 4 years. In 2019, we told you that we placed 85% of the layer. In 2022, we only placed 45% of the layer. So in sort of broad sweeping terms, you could expect that the absence -- the impact in 2022 on the underlying would have been about half as much as it was in 2019. And so that's what the year-over-year comparison will look like in 2023. So maybe somewhere around 1/4 of a point.

在 2019 年，我們告訴過你我們在所有 4 年中放置了相同的 5 億美元層。在 2019 年，我們告訴過你我們放置了 85% 的圖層。 2022年，我們只放置了45%的圖層。因此，從廣義上講，你可以預計缺席——2022 年對基礎資產的影響將是 2019 年的一半左右。這就是同比比較的樣子在 2023 年。所以可能在 1/4 點左右。

Got it. And then just following up on that, is that something -- and you also mentioned just the relative cost of goods sold advantage from buying less reinsurance. Does that benefit something you are looking to price or just allow to flow through in pricing as opposed to falling to the bottom line just based on your commentary, it sounds like that might be the case, but maybe elaborate on that as well.

知道了。然後就此進行跟進，那是什麼——你還提到了購買較少的再保險所帶來的相對商品銷售成本優勢。這是否有利於您正在尋找定價的東西，或者只是允許在定價中流動，而不是僅僅根據您的評論跌至底線，這聽起來可能是這種情況，但也可能對此進行詳細說明。

Yes. I don't think it's really big enough to impact the way we think about the pricing on the property book overall. I mean -- so again, we placed 45% of a $500 million layer. We didn't attach it. If you look across the business, we've got $8 billion or $9 billion worth of property premium. It goes into our consideration of how do we think about pricing in our underwriting appetite. But we said sort of from the first day we bought that treaty, we sort of would have been happy if we bought it or almost as happy if we didn't buy it, it was sort of on the margin. So the absence of it is not really going to have any impact on the way we view pricing adequacy and property.

是的。我不認為它真的大到足以影響我們對整體財產賬簿定價的思考方式。我的意思是——再一次，我們放置了 5 億美元層的 45%。我們沒有附上它。如果你縱觀整個行業，我們有 80 億美元或 90 億美元的財產保費。它涉及我們如何考慮我們的承銷胃口定價。但我們說，從我們購買該條約的第一天起，如果我們購買它我們會很高興，或者如果我們不購買它幾乎同樣高興，它有點微不足道。因此，沒有它不會對我們看待定價充足性和財產的方式產生任何影響。

Got you. And then coming back to Michael. Just wondering, I think in the past, I've heard you guys talk about mid-90s combined ratio in auto. And you said you thought you could get to written rate adequacy still by '23. Maybe just one, is that still the right combined ratio to think about you guys are targeting? And then any sort of view on timing of when you think you can get there?

明白了然後回到邁克爾。只是想知道，我想過去，我聽過你們談論 90 年代中期汽車的綜合比率。你說你認為你可以在 23 歲之前達到書面利率的充分性。也許只有一個，考慮到你們的目標，這仍然是正確的綜合比率嗎？然後對您認為何時可以到達那裡的時間有任何看法？

Sure, David. I think in terms of the target, obviously, it's impacted by a lot of things. I think we've said mid-90s or even a range on the upper end of the mid-90s is actually, I think, what we've talked about historically. Certainly, investment yields are better than they were when we talked about that. But I think, broadly speaking, you can think of that range as where we're trying to get to. And again, as I described last quarter and reiterated this quarter, we think that written pricing will get to adequacy on the majority of the business by midyear. So again, that's a leading indicator of what you're going to see in GAAP results, right?

當然，大衛。我認為就目標而言，顯然，它受到很多因素的影響。我認為我們已經說過 90 年代中期甚至 90 年代中期上端的範圍實際上，我認為，我們在歷史上談論過。當然，投資收益率比我們談論它時要好。但我認為，從廣義上講，你可以將這個範圍視為我們試圖達到的目標。再一次，正如我上個季度所述並在本季度重申的那樣，我們認為到年中，書面定價將對大多數業務來說是足夠的。再次重申，這是您將在 GAAP 結果中看到的領先指標，對吧？

So I've also talked about the price we're taking will earn its way into our results over time. This morning, I said you'll see the benefit sort of throughout '23 and beyond. I think what's important to note is the comment we made this morning about the growing impact of earned rate on the auto results this quarter that impact will grow through 2023 as we've taken -- you see more and more written RPC in the book of business as the year goes forward this year. We've talked about higher levels of written RPC in 2023 that paves the way for increased earned rate impacting the book of business quarter-over-quarter-over-quarter as you go into 2023.

所以我也談到了我們所接受的價格會隨著時間的推移影響到我們的結果。今天早上，我說過你會在整個 23 年及以後看到這種好處。我認為重要的是要注意我們今天早上發表的評論，即本季度盈利率對汽車業績的影響越來越大，正如我們所採取的那樣，這種影響將一直持續到 2023 年——你會在書中看到越來越多的書面 RPC今年生意順風順水。我們已經討論了 2023 年更高水平的書面 RPC，這為提高賺取率鋪平了道路，隨著您進入 2023 年，影響業務賬面環比環比。

So I think those are the breadcrumbs we're trying to give you in terms of how to lay out your expectations for next year. Obviously, the million-dollar question for everybody in '23 is what happens to loss experience and where the loss trends go from here? And that's the -- if you sort of lay out your own view of the earned rate versus what's going to happen to loss trend that will sort of help you figure where you think the lines are going to cross.

因此，我認為這些是我們試圖在如何制定您對明年的期望方面為您提供的麵包屑。顯然，對於 23 年的每個人來說，最重要的問題是損失經驗會發生什麼變化以及損失趨勢從何而來？這就是 - 如果您列出自己對賺取率與損失趨勢將會發生什麼的看法，這將有助於您確定您認為線將交叉的位置。

Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

Michael, maybe picking up on your last comment, I mean, you say that you guys are going to reach within rate adequacy in personal auto. So what are you guys assuming for frequency and severity from here when you make that comment?

邁克爾，也許會接受你最後的評論，我的意思是，你說你們將在個人汽車中達到足夠的利率。那麼，當你們發表評論時，你們假設這裡的頻率和嚴重性是什麼？

Yes, Elyse, I think we're not going to get into specifics on frequency and severity assumptions for next year. I think what we have talked about pretty consistently is we have been booking to the loss experience that we've seen, those booked trends remain double digit as we talk -- as we sit here today, talking about the fourth quarter. And again, we've pretty consistently talked about observing double-digit severity trends in the book. Frankly, that's a property comment and an auto comment. And is the severity and loss pressure that we are contending with. And we've also said that we have been factoring those increased costs into our expectations, both in terms of the actual experience and our outlook. But I don't think we're going to put a number on the forecast severity and frequency trends beyond that.

是的，Elyse，我認為我們不會詳細討論明年的頻率和嚴重性假設。我認為我們一直在談論的是我們一直在預訂我們所看到的損失經驗，這些預訂趨勢在我們談話時仍然是兩位數 - 正如我們今天坐在這裡談論第四季度一樣。再一次，我們一直在談論觀察書中兩位數的嚴重性趨勢。坦率地說，這是一個屬性評論和一個自動評論。是我們正在應對的嚴重性和損失壓力。我們還說過，我們一直在將這些增加的成本納入我們的預期，無論是在實際經驗還是我們的前景方面。但我認為我們不會對預測的嚴重性和頻率趨勢給出一個數字。

Then on the reinsurance program, can you give us a sense of -- an absolute sense of how much your reinsurance costs went up? And then on the capital side, as you guys have added more volatility right by retaining additional cat losses in '23, how could that affect your capital allocation? Should we expect lower buyback in the second and third quarter? And could this even impact the excess capital that you would have for new business growth?

那麼關於再保險計劃，你能給我們一個感覺——你的再保險成本上升了多少的絕對感覺嗎？然後在資本方面，由於你們在 23 年通過保留額外的巨災損失增加了更多的波動性，這將如何影響你們的資本配置？我們是否應該預期第二季度和第三季度的回購會減少？這甚至會影響您用於新業務增長的過剩資本嗎？

So a couple of things, Elyse, it's Dan. We're not going to go into the details of reinsurance pricing. What I was trying to communicate in my comments was when we consider the pricing that we're getting on the direct business that we're writing in our management and terms and conditions, we don't expect the higher pricing for reinsurance to have much of an impact on our margins. And again, the change in the overall treaty, I don't think it's going to have a significant impact on our capital position. I really think of it as sort of business as usual. We made the comment that the attachment (inaudible) increase sort of in line with our increase in property premiums. So the attachment point went up 16% or 17%. Our premium volume in 2022 compared to 2021 was up 15% or 16% or 17% in both business insurance and personal insurance. I don't think it's going to have a dramatic impact on -- it does not have a significant impact on our view of capital adequacy now, and I don't think it's going to have a significant impact on the way you see us behave from a capital perspective in 2023.

所以有幾件事，愛麗絲，是丹。我們不會深入探討再保險定價的細節。我在評論中試圖傳達的是，當我們考慮我們在管理中編寫的直接業務的定價以及條款和條件時，我們預計再保險的更高定價不會有太大影響對我們利潤率的影響。再一次，總體條約的變化，我認為它不會對我們的資本狀況產生重大影響。我真的認為這就像往常一樣。我們發表評論說，附件（聽不清）的增加與我們財產保費的增加是一致的。所以附著點上升了 16% 或 17%。與 2021 年相比，我們 2022 年的商業保險和人身保險保費增長了 15%、16% 或 17%。我認為它不會對 - 它不會對我們現在對資本充足率的看法產生重大影響，而且我認為它不會對您對我們的行為方式產生重大影響從2023年的資本角度來看。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Meyer Shields from [ABW].

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 [ABW] 的 Meyer Shields。

A quick question on, I guess, the quota share arrangement. Can you talk about -- and I'm putting this as binary, and it's probably not. But can you talk about why is going through sort of quota share arrangements to capitalize on the hard property market as opposed to your own excess and (inaudible) paper?

我猜是關於配額份額安排的一個簡短問題。你能談談——我把它作為二進製文件，它可能不是。但是你能談談為什麼要通過某種配額份額安排來利用硬房地產市場而不是你自己的過剩和（聽不清）票據嗎？

Yes, Meyer, it's -- we've got all the flexibility in our property business and in our other businesses with E&S paper and otherwise to do whatever it is we want to do. This was an opportunity for us to work a little bit more closely with Fidelis. We think they're interesting in what they do and wanted to understand it a little bit better. And they're in some businesses that we just haven't historically been in. And so in cases like that, it's not the only place we've done it. But in cases like that, we look to leverage the capabilities of other talented underwriters and this is just one of those opportunities.

是的，邁耶，它是——我們在房地產業務和其他業務中擁有 E&S 紙的所有靈活性，否則我們可以做任何我們想做的事情。這是我們與 Fidelis 更緊密合作的機會。我們認為他們對自己所做的事情很感興趣，並希望更好地理解它。他們在一些我們歷史上從未涉足過的行業。所以在這樣的情況下，這不是我們唯一做過的地方。但在這種情況下，我們希望利用其他有才華的承銷商的能力，而這只是其中一個機會。

Okay. No, that makes sense. And then a quick question for Michael. You talked a little bit about, I think, unquantified the impact of accident year ['22] loss take increases in the fourth quarter, did that change have a meaningful impact on the indicated rate need?

好的。不，這是有道理的。然後是邁克爾的一個快速問題。我認為，您談到了一些未量化的事故年 ['22] 損失在第四季度增加的影響，這種變化是否對指示的利率需求產生了有意義的影響？

Sure, Meyer. Again, I would say every quarter of additional experience where we see double-digit loss increased experience impacts our rate need and impacts our loss experience. The good news is it factors into the evidence we have to go to regulators to ask for rate increases. So it certainly, the additional quarter of sort of double-digit severity, did put additional upward pressure on our rate indications and that's what we're factoring into the indications were taken to the department in early 2023.

當然，邁耶。再一次，我會說每季度我們看到兩位數損失增加經驗的額外經驗都會影響我們的費率需求並影響我們的損失經驗。好消息是，它是我們必須向監管機構要求加息的證據中的一個因素。因此，可以肯定的是，額外四分之一的兩位數嚴重程度確實給我們的利率指標帶來了額外的上行壓力，這就是我們在 2023 年初向該部門提交的指標中考慮的因素。

Our next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

I had one follow-up on the personal auto. We saw a peer of yours that's had severity sort of picking up maybe faster than they even were expecting earlier in the year and as well as bodily injury that's sort of being settled at this point. Just wanted to see, is that something you've looked at harder in your book? How confident are you that you're fully capturing the severity in the way you're reserving on the auto. Do you feel comfortable with where that is headed into 2023 and the starting point here?

我對個人汽車進行了一次跟進。我們看到你的一位同齡人的嚴重程度可能比他們今年早些時候預期的要快，而且此時身體受傷正在得到解決。只是想看看，這是你在書中更認真地研究過的東西嗎？您對完全捕捉到您在汽車上的預訂方式的嚴重性有多大信心。您對進入 2023 年的方向和這裡的起點感到滿意嗎？

Sure. This is Michael. Maybe I'll start and Dan can speak to the reserving element of it. Certainly, as I talked about the prior period comparison in auto, we're seeing severity across auto physical damage coverages and bodily injury coverages. We've talked about both auto physical damage and bodily injury and either prepared remarks or Q&A sort of throughout the year. We've certainly spent more time talking about auto physical damage but bodily injury severity trends have been elevated throughout the year. I think we've talked about them being elevated but consistent with our expectations. They were a little worse in Q4, which is why we call them out.

當然。這是邁克爾。也許我會開始，Dan 可以談談它的保留元素。當然，當我談到汽車的前期比較時，我們看到汽車物理損壞保險和人身傷害保險的嚴重性。我們討論了汽車物理損壞和人身傷害，以及全年的準備好的評論或問答。我們當然花了更多時間談論汽車物理損壞，但全年身體傷害嚴重程度趨勢有所上升。我認為我們已經討論過它們被提升但符合我們的期望。他們在第四季度的表現稍差，這就是我們將其淘汰的原因。

But we've booked to that in our Q4 results. They were also an element of the prior period -- current year prior quarter development that I called out in the prepared remarks as well. So they're in the loss estimates that we booked for the quarter and the full year.

但我們已經在第四季度的結果中預訂了這一點。它們也是前期的一個元素——我在準備好的評論中也提到了本年度上一季度的發展。所以他們在我們為本季度和全年預訂的損失估計中。

Alex, it's Dan. Just in terms of the balance sheet, I think we made this comment last quarter as well, we were pretty consistent in 2020 and 2021 in saying that we felt we were being appropriately cautious in allowing for the elevated level of uncertainty in the environment at that time when we were making our loss picks, including in personal insurance. And I think that's continued to proven to hold up. As Michael said, our expectation was always that bodily injury severity, not only was elevated, but the trend slope was upward moving on that. And so I think when you take into consideration the fact that we were sort of intentionally reflecting an elevated level of uncertainty in '20 and '21 and trying to continuously react to the most recent data as it comes in to this point all the way through the end of 2022, our reserves for prior years have held up just fine.

亞歷克斯，是丹。就資產負債表而言，我認為我們在上個季度也發表了這一評論，我們在 2020 年和 2021 年非常一致地表示，我們認為我們在考慮到當時環境中更高水平的不確定性方面採取了適當的謹慎態度我們做出損失選擇的時間，包括人身保險。我認為這繼續被證明是有效的。正如邁克爾所說，我們的預期始終是人身傷害的嚴重程度不僅會升高，而且趨勢斜率也會向上移動。因此，我認為當你考慮到這樣一個事實時，我們在某種程度上是有意反映了 20 世紀和 21 世紀的不確定性水平升高，並試圖不斷對最新數據做出反應，因為它一直到現在為止到 2022 年底，我們前幾年的儲備保持良好。

That's really helpful. And then my follow-up is on workers' comp actually. We were just looking at some of the NCCI stuff out there. I mean, it looks like in '23, maybe there's a bit more pressure on workers' comp pricing than even in the recent years. I appreciate though that there's also an improving starting point for ultimate loss ratios just based on the way that the development has been trending. So when I think about all those things, I mean, can you help me think through what that means for accident year loss ratios in '23, just at a high level and whether we should be thinking about that as a pressure point?

這真的很有幫助。然後我的後續行動實際上是關於工人補償的。我們只是在看一些 NCCI 的東西。我的意思是，看起來在 23 年，工人薪酬定價的壓力可能比近年來更大。不過，我很欣賞基於發展趨勢的方式，最終損失率的起點也有所提高。所以當我考慮所有這些事情時，我的意思是，你能幫我想想這對 23 年的事故年損失率意味著什麼，只是在一個高水平上，我們是否應該將其視為一個壓力點？

Yes. Alex, let me start, and I look at Greg, if I missed something here. So renewal price change was mid-single digits positive, as you heard from Greg. Given the durations of the liability, we take a pretty cautious view on how we think about loss trend and the outlook for that. And so you'd say pricing is a little bit positive, you'd say loss trends negative. And the net of those 2 things would probably be a little bit negative, but as we think about next year, I think the question is going to be what's loss trend going to do because it has -- over the last few years or more than that surprised us to the benign side. And so we'll just have to see where the losses come in and then take a look at the calendar year results. But Again, I would just say workers' comp has been a fantastic line for us. And we think the outlook for it is positive as well.

是的。亞歷克斯，讓我開始，如果我在這裡遺漏了什麼，我會看看格雷格。因此，正如您從 Greg 那裡聽到的那樣，續訂價格變化為中個位數正數。鑑於負債的持續時間，我們對我們如何看待損失趨勢和前景持非常謹慎的看法。所以你會說定價有點積極，你會說損失趨勢是消極的。這兩件事的淨額可能會有點負面，但當我們考慮明年時，我認為問題將是損失趨勢會發生什麼，因為它已經 - 在過去幾年或更長時間裡這讓我們對良性方面感到驚訝。所以我們只需要看看損失來自哪裡，然後看看日曆年的結果。但是，我只想說，工人補償對我們來說是一條很棒的路線。我們認為它的前景也是積極的。

Our next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

First question, just going back to the cat load. So I think we're seeing a nonrenewal of the property ad cover, a shift up in XOL retention, maybe some additional cat coming in from Fidelis the quota share as well. How should we think about that kind of in aggregate as we think about 2023, does that essentially mean that we should think about maybe a lower aggregate loss ratio but maybe some additional volatility?

第一個問題，回到貓的負載。所以我認為我們看到了財產廣告封面的不更新，XOL 保留率的上升，也許還有一些來自 Fidelis 的額外貓的配額份額。當我們考慮 2023 年時，我們應該如何考慮這種總體情況，這是否實質上意味著我們應該考慮可能較低的總損失率，但可能會有一些額外的波動性？

I don't think that's where I would go, Yaron. I'm not -- tell me what you would look at that would lead you to look for a lower aggregate loss ratio?

我不認為那是我要去的地方，Yaron。我不是 - 告訴我您會看到什麼會導致您尋找較低的總損失率？

Well, I would think that more cat-exposed business would have a lower attritional loss ratio coming with it -- prior retention rates, we have a lower return (inaudible) as well.

好吧，我認為更多的巨災風險業務會帶來更低的損耗率——之前的保留率，我們的回報率也更低（聽不清）。

Yes. I think you're really talking on the margins. I don't think we're very -- we're significantly changing the mix of the property book we write in terms of what its cat-exposed profile is. Fidelis, again, at those levels and a portion of what they write is going to be cat-exposed. But at that level, that's going to have a very small impact on our overall base of premiums. We look at the cat results over the last few years. And I think like everyone sort of continually update our view of -- and for us, it's importantly -- it's weather losses, not just what falls into the catastrophe bucket, right, because we've got sort of a more restrictive definition of what CAT is than most other folks.

是的。我認為你真的在談論邊緣。我不認為我們非常 - 我們正在根據其暴露於貓的資料來顯著改變我們編寫的財產書的組合。 Fidelis，同樣，在那些級別上，他們寫的一部分內容將被貓暴露。但在那個水平上，這將對我們的整體保費基礎產生非常小的影響。我們看看過去幾年的貓結果。而且我認為每個人都在不斷更新我們的觀點 - 對我們來說，這很重要 - 這是天氣損失，而不僅僅是落入災難桶的東西，對吧，因為我們對什麼有更嚴格的定義CAT 比其他大多數人都要好。

But it's really not a significant change. So we don't see a significant change in the relative percentage of the book that's cat exposed. We don't see a significant change despite some changes in reinsurance, I would describe those changes in reinsurance relative to the property book as a whole as pretty modest. So I don't think it dramatically changes our cat profile. So I don't really think it's going to have a significant impact on the way we think about the property book going forward.

但這確實不是一個重大變化。所以我們沒有看到被貓暴露的書的相對百分比有顯著變化。儘管再保險發生了一些變化，但我們沒有看到重大變化，我會把再保險相對於整個財產賬簿的變化描述為相當溫和。所以我認為它不會顯著改變我們的貓的形象。所以我真的不認為它會對我們對未來財產書的看法產生重大影響。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then maybe shifting to Michael's world. Were there any entry year catch-ups in personal auto this quarter?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許轉移到邁克爾的世界。本季度個人汽車是否有任何進入年度的追趕？

Yes, it's Michael. I think to your question, we did have a modest impact from reestimation of prior quarters. And I talked about the auto physical damage, the frequency and the bodily injury as the drivers of the period-to-period change, there was really some prior year reestimation sort of across a number of factors in the book, but again, it was modest.

是的，是邁克爾。我認為對於你的問題，我們確實對前幾個季度的重新估計產生了適度的影響。我談到了汽車物理損壞、頻率和身體傷害作為不同時期變化的驅動因素，確實有一些前一年的重新估計，涉及書中的許多因素，但同樣，它是謙虛的。

And is it something you can quantify or not at this time?

您現在是否可以量化？

Yes. I mean it was, I'd say, about 1 point, 1 point or 2 kind of -- and again, it varied a little bit by coverage, but call it around 1 point or so.

是的。我的意思是，我想說，大約是 1 點、1 點或 2 種——而且，它因覆蓋範圍而略有不同，但稱之為 1 點左右。

That concludes the Q&A session. I now turn the call over to Ms. Goldstein.

問答環節到此結束。我現在把電話轉給戈爾茨坦女士。

Thank you very much. I appreciate your time this morning. I know there were several people left in queue. So as usual, please feel free to follow up after. Thanks so much. Have a good day.

非常感謝你。我感謝你今天早上的時間。我知道還有幾個人在排隊。所以像往常一樣，請隨時跟進。非常感謝。祝你有美好的一天。