旅行家集團 (TRV) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the second quarter results teleconference for Travelers. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on July 20, 2023. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加旅行者第二季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議的錄製時間為 2023 年 7 月 20 日。此時，我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Abbe Goldstein 女士。戈德斯坦女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our second quarter 2023 results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 Travelers 對我們 2023 年第二季度業績的討論。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務補充和網絡廣播演示文稿。所有這些材料都可以在我們的 Travelers.com 網站的“投資者”部分找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, CFO; and our 3 segment Presidents, Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance; Jeff Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance. They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take questions.

今天發言的是董事長兼首席執行官 Alan Schnitzer；丹·弗雷，首席財務官；以及我們的 3 個部門總裁，商業保險部門的 Greg Toczydlowski；債券與專業保險的傑夫·克倫克（Jeff Klenk）；和個人保險的邁克爾克萊因。他們將討論我們業務的財務業績和當前的市場環境。他們將在完成準備好的發言時參考網絡廣播演示，然後我們將回答問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.

在我將電話轉給艾倫之前，我想提請您注意網絡廣播演示文稿末尾的解釋性說明。我們今天的演示包括前瞻性陳述。該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，並不是對未來業績的保證。由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 報告中的前瞻性陳述中進行了描述。我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in the Investors section on our website. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan.

此外，在我們的評論或對問題的答復中，我們可能會提到一些非公認會計準則財務指標。調節表包含在我們最近的收益新聞稿、財務補充材料和我們網站投資者部分提供的其他材料中。現在我想把電話轉給艾倫。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. In the face of an historic cat quarter, our top and bottom-line results demonstrate the strength of our franchise and the resilience of our business model.

謝謝你，阿貝。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。面對歷史性的貓季度，我們的頂線和底線結果證明了我們特許經營的實力和我們商業模式的彈性。

This quarter, we reported strong underlying results and investment returns as well as net favorable prior year reserve development, which were essentially offset by an historic level of industry-wide catastrophe losses. There were PCS-designated catastrophe events taking place on 88 of the 91 days of the quarter.

本季度，我們報告了強勁的基本業績和投資回報以及上一年的淨有利儲備發展，這些基本上被全行業巨災損失的歷史水平所抵消。本季度 91 天中有 88 天發生了 PCS 指定的災難事件。

Despite pretax catastrophe losses of $1.5 billion, we generated slightly positive core income for the quarter. We are very pleased with the underlying fundamentals of our business. Pretax underlying underwriting income of $781 million for the quarter was up nearly 40%, driven by record net earned premiums of $9.2 billion and a consolidated underlying combined ratio, which improved 1.7 points to an excellent 91.1%. Earned premiums were higher in all 3 of our business segments.

儘管稅前巨災損失達 15 億美元，但我們本季度的核心收入略有增加。我們對我們業務的基本面非常滿意。本季度稅前基礎承保收入為 7.81 億美元，增長近 40%，這得益於創紀錄的 92 億美元淨賺保費和綜合基礎綜合成本率（提高 1.7 個百分點，達到 91.1%）。我們所有 3 個業務部門的已賺保費均較高。

Underlying profitability in our Business Insurance segment was particularly strong. The underlying combined ratio improved by 3 points to an excellent 89.4%. The underlying combined ratio in our Bond & Specialty business was higher year-over-year, but at 87.8%, still generated a very attractive return. In our Personal Insurance segment, the underlying combined ratio improved by 2 points, reflecting the actions we have taken to improve profitability.

我們的商業保險部門的基礎盈利能力尤其強勁。基礎綜合成本率提高了 3 個百分點，達到 89.4%。我們的債券與特種業務的基礎綜合成本率同比有所上升，但達到 87.8%，仍然產生了非常有吸引力的回報。在我們的個人保險部門，基本綜合成本率提高了 2 個百分點，反映了我們為提高盈利能力而採取的行動。

Turning to investments. Our high-quality investment portfolio generated net investment income of $594 million after tax for the quarter, reflecting stronger and reliable returns from our fixed income portfolio, and solid returns from our nonfixed income portfolio. Given our confidence in the strength of our business, we returned $633 million of excess capital to shareholders during the quarter, including $400 million of share repurchases.

轉向投資。我們的優質投資組合本季度產生了 5.94 億美元的稅後淨投資收入，反映出我們的固定收益投資組合更強勁、更可靠的回報，以及非固定收益投資組合的穩健回報。鑑於我們對業務實力的信心，我們在本季度向股東返還了 6.33 億美元的超額資本，其中包括 4 億美元的股票回購。

Turning to production. Thanks once again to excellent execution by our colleagues in the field, we grew net written premiums by $1.3 billion or 14% to a record $10.3 billion. In Business Insurance, we grew net written premiums by 18% to $5.2 billion. Renewal premium change in the segment was a record high at 12.8%, driven by renewal rate change, which accelerated 2.5 points sequentially to 7.2%. The renewal premium change we achieved this quarter was broad-based. RPC was double-digit or near double-digit in every line other than workers' compensation, and it was higher sequentially in every line, including workers' compensation. Even with strong pricing, retention, an important indicator of marketplace stability, remained very strong at 88%. New business increased 36% to $671 million led by the property line.

轉向生產。再次感謝該領域同事的出色執行，我們的淨承保保費增長了 13 億美元或 14%，達到創紀錄的 103 億美元。在商業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增長了 18%，達到 52 億美元。在續保費率變化的推動下，該細分市場的續保保費變化創下 12.8% 的歷史新高，續保費率變化比上一季度加快 2.5 個百分點，達到 7.2%。我們本季度實現的續保保費變化是廣泛的。除工傷賠償外，RPC 在各行中均為兩位數或接近兩位數，並且在包括工傷在內的各行中依次較高。即使定價強勁，保留率（市場穩定性的一個重要指標）仍保持在 88% 的強勁水平。在房地產業務的帶動下，新業務增長了 36%，達到 6.71 億美元。

In Bond & Specialty Insurance, record net written premiums were about even with the prior year quarter. Retention in our management liability business was an excellent 91% and new business increased 11%. Surety net written premiums were also once again strong. Given the attractive returns, we are very pleased with the strong production results in both of our commercial business segments. The growth we're putting on the books is from geographies, products and distribution partners that we know well.

在債券和專業保險領域，創紀錄的淨承保保費與去年同期基本持平。我們的管理負債業務保留率高達 91%，新業務增長了 11%。擔保淨承保保費也再次強勁。鑑於有吸引力的回報，我們對我們兩個商業業務部門的強勁生產業績感到非常滿意。我們賬面上的增長來自於我們熟悉的地區、產品和分銷合作夥伴。

In Personal Insurance, top line growth of 13% was driven by higher pricing. Renewal premium change was 19.2% in our homeowners and other business and increased to a record high 16.1% in our auto business.

在個人保險領域，定價上漲推動了 13% 的營收增長。我們的房主和其他業務的續保保費變化為 19.2%，而我們的汽車業務的續保保費變化則增至創紀錄的 16.1%。

Another quarter of terrific production across the board positions us well for the rest of the year and into 2024. We'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results.

又一個季度的全面出色生產使我們在今年剩餘時間和 2024 年處於有利地位。我們很快就會聽到格雷格、傑夫和邁克爾關於我們部門業績的更多信息。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'd like to spend a few minutes on what Travelers is doing in an important area for us, artificial intelligence. We subscribe to the view that over time, the impact of AI across the economy is going to be profound. So is the opportunity for Travelers. With our perform and transform mindset and our disciplined framework for assessing our investment priorities, we've been focused for years on responsibly developing differentiating AI capabilities across our 3 innovation priorities, extending our lead in risk expertise, providing great experiences for our customers, agents, brokers and employees and optimizing productivity and efficiency.

在將電話轉給 Dan 之前，我想花幾分鐘時間介紹一下 Travelers 在人工智能這個對我們來說很重要的領域所做的事情。我們同意這樣的觀點：隨著時間的推移，人工智能對整個經濟的影響將是深遠的。旅行者的機會也是如此。憑藉我們的執行和轉型思維以及評估投資優先事項的嚴格框架，我們多年來一直致力於在 3 個創新優先事項中負責任地開發差異化人工智能功能，擴大我們在風險專業知識方面的領先地位，為我們的客戶、代理商、經紀人和員工提供卓越的體驗，並優化生產力和效率。

Between our colleagues who are dedicated to AI specifically and others in enabling disciplines, we have a very significant number of our employees engaged on the objective of making sure that we're leading when it comes to AI.

在專門致力於人工智能的同事和其他支持學科的同事之間，我們有大量員工致力於確保我們在人工智能方面處於領先地位。

As we've shared before, and as you can see on Slide 23 of the webcast presentation, for some time, we've been steadily increasing our technology spend. This year, we'll spend more than $1.5 billion on technology. As the slide demonstrates, we've also been improving the strategic mix of our tech spend. That includes a meaningful increase in investments to develop or acquire cutting-edge AI capabilities built on modern cloud technology. Importantly, we've done all that while significantly improving our expense ratio in no small part, thanks to the success of our technology investments.

正如我們之前分享的，以及您在網絡廣播演示文稿的幻燈片 23 中看到的，一段時間以來，我們一直在穩步增加技術支出。今年，我們將在技術上花費超過 15 億美元。正如幻燈片所示，我們還一直在改進技術支出的戰略組合。這包括有意義地增加投資，以開發或獲取基於現代云技術的尖端人工智能功能。重要的是，由於我們技術投資的成功，我們在完成這一切的同時，在很大程度上顯著提高了我們的費用率。

The quantity and quality of data are key differentiators when it comes to AI. For more than a decade, we've been investing in data sets, data quality and data accessibility. Between submissions in our commercial businesses and quotes in PI, we intake millions of business opportunities each year. We also take in, adjust and adjudicate millions of claims. As one of the largest risk control organizations in the industry, we provide risk mitigation to our commercial customers, completing more than 100,000 risk control consultations annually. We capture valuable data from virtually all of those interactions.

數據的數量和質量是人工智能的關鍵區別因素。十多年來，我們一直在數據集、數據質量和數據可訪問性方面進行投資。通過商業業務的提交和 PI 的報價，我們每年獲得數百萬個商機。我們還受理、調整和裁決數以百萬計的索賠。作為業內最大的風控機構之一，我們為商業客戶提供風險緩解服務，每年完成超過10萬例風控諮詢。我們從幾乎所有這些交互中捕獲有價值的數據。

Our data also include decades of curated institutional knowledge in the forms of policies, procedures, guidelines, forensic investigations and so on. All of that creates an excellent foundation for the next iteration of generative AI.

我們的數據還包括幾十年來以政策、程序、指南、法證調查等形式整理的機構知識。所有這些都為生成式人工智能的下一次迭代奠定了良好的基礎。

In addition to our extensive proprietary data, we've been assembling actionable third-party data for years. In fact, we have more than 2,000 data sets from hundreds of third parties. All in, we believe that we have a significant and hard to replicate data advantage. Given the competitive advantages that will come from deploying AI across the insurance value chain, and the expertise, resources and data required to get there, scale will increasingly be a differentiator in our industry as will the ability to execute complex initiatives effectively and efficiently. Expertise, resources, data, scale and execution excellence, all favor Travelers.

除了我們廣泛的專有數據之外，我們多年來一直在收集可操作的第三方數據。事實上，我們擁有來自數百個第三方的 2,000 多個數據集。總而言之，我們相信我們擁有顯著且難以復制的數據優勢。鑑於在整個保險價值鏈中部署人工智能所帶來的競爭優勢，以及實現這一目標所需的專業知識、資源和數據，規模將日益成為我們行業的差異化因素，有效且高效地執行複雜計劃的能力也將日益成為我們行業的差異化因素。專業知識、資源、數據、規模和卓越的執行力，都對旅行者有利。

The potential use cases for AI and our industry are many and varied. We pursue very focused opportunities that are consistent with our innovation priorities and will create meaningful and sustainable competitive advantages, all with an eye towards leveraging strategic capabilities across our organization.

人工智能和我們行業的潛在用例多種多樣。我們追求與我們的創新優先事項相一致的非常有針對性的機會，並將創造有意義和可持續的競爭優勢，所有這些都著眼於利用我們整個組織的戰略能力。

AI capabilities that we currently have in production span the spectrum from those driving efficiency through automation to more advanced generative AI and large language models. More advanced models augment various aspects of our underwriting, claim handling, service delivery and other work. We use intelligent process automation broadly throughout our business to handle hundreds of routine workflows. Automation and AI have been meaningful drivers of our expense ratio improvement over the past 7 years or so.

我們目前在生產中擁有的人工智能功能涵蓋從通過自動化提高效率到更先進的生成式人工智能和大型語言模型的範圍。更先進的模型增強了我們承保、索賠處理、服務交付和其他工作的各個方面。我們在整個業務中廣泛使用智能流程自動化來處理數百個日常工作流程。在過去 7 年左右的時間裡，自動化和人工智能一直是我們費用率改善的重要驅動力。

A key success driver in insurance is segmenting risk as finely as possible to achieve pricing that is accurately calibrated to the risk. Deep learning models have significantly improved our ability to classify and segment risk in our flow businesses.

保險業成功的關鍵驅動力是盡可能精細地細分風險，以實現根據風險準確校準的定價。深度學習模型顯著提高了我們對流程業務中的風險進行分類和細分的能力。

For example, in Personal Insurance, we leverage proprietary AI and aerial imagery to assess roof and other site-related conditions at the parcel level. Parcel level risk assessment at scale was practically unimaginable until several years ago. And that type of information is very difficult to obtain from the insured with a reliable degree of accuracy.

例如，在個人保險中，我們利用專有的人工智能和航空圖像來評估包裹級別的屋頂和其他與場地相關的條件。直到幾年前，大規模地塊級風險評估實際上還是不可想像的。並且很難從被保險人那裡獲得可靠且準確的信息。

In our Select Accounts business, we estimate that AI has improved business classification, a critical underwriting input by more than 30%. In our Middle Market business, we've developed a suite of sophisticated AI models, which facilitate targeted cross-selling, supporting our effort to sell more products to more customers. We're also using AI to better understand our customers and their needs. With this improved customer segmentation, we can better align new product development and generate insights that improve the customer experience, enhancing our industry-leading analytics using machine learning models to deliver sophisticated actuarial insights and to loss cost trends in development, which improve our already strong pricing and product monitoring capabilities.

在我們的精選賬戶業務中，我們估計人工智能已將業務分類（一項關鍵的承保投入）提高了 30% 以上。在我們的中間市場業務中，我們開發了一套複雜的人工智能模型，可以促進有針對性的交叉銷售，支持我們向更多客戶銷售更多產品。我們還使用人工智能來更好地了解我們的客戶及其需求。通過這種改進的客戶細分，我們可以更好地協調新產品開發並生成改善客戶體驗的見解，使用機器學習模型增強我們行業領先的分析，以提供複雜的精算見解和開發中的損失成本趨勢，從而提高我們本已強大的定價和產品監控能力。

On the most advanced end, we're leveraging generative AI in large language models, and we've been doing so for several years. For example, in our Bond & Specialty business, our proprietary large language models have processed hundreds of thousands of broker submissions as we work toward improving intake time from hours to minutes. This will improve our responsiveness to our customers and distribution partners and contribute to our productivity.

在最先進的方面，我們正在大型語言模型中利用生成式人工智能，而且我們已經這樣做了好幾年了。例如，在我們的債券和特種業務中，我們專有的大語言模型已經處理了數十萬份經紀人提交的信息，同時我們努力將受理時間從幾小時縮短到幾分鐘。這將提高我們對客戶和分銷合作夥伴的響應能力，並有助於提高我們的生產力。

In our claim organization, a proprietary large language model ingests legal complaints filed against our insureds and then highlights key liability and coverage issues, assist in routing the cases to the best suited defense counsel and provides risk-related insights that can be incorporated back into our underwriting process.

在我們的索賠組織中，專有的大語言模型會收集針對我們的被保險人提出的法律投訴，然後突出顯示關鍵的責任和承保問題，協助將案件轉交給最合適的辯護律師，並提供與風險相關的見解，這些見解可以納入我們的承保流程中。

We've also developed and are piloting a Traveler's claim knowledge assistant, a generative AI tool trained on many thousands of pages of proprietary technical source material that was previously only accessible through thousands of different documents. The model provides claim professionals with the ability to easily access accurate actionable information on technical and procedural claim matters, increasing speed, accuracy and consistency in various workflows, including in interactions with our customers and distribution partners.

我們還開發並正在試用旅行者索賠知識助手，這是一種生成人工智能工具，經過數千頁專有技術源材料的訓練，而這些材料以前只能通過數千個不同的文檔來訪問。該模型使索賠專業人員能夠輕鬆訪問有關技術和程序索賠事宜的準確的可操作信息，從而提高各種工作流程（包括與客戶和分銷合作夥伴的互動）的速度、準確性和一致性。

So in terms of AI, we're investing with speed and strategic direction, consistent with our stated objective of delivering industry-leading returns. I've only shared some of what's in flight, and the capabilities that we've developed are in various phases of adoption. The full impact of the capabilities we're developing and others on our road map are still ahead of us.

因此，在人工智能方面，我們正在以速度和戰略方向進行投資，這與我們提供行業領先回報的既定目標是一致的。我只分享了一些正在開發的功能，我們開發的功能正處於不同的採用階段。我們正在開發的功能和路線圖上的其他功能的全面影響仍然在我們面前。

To sum things up, we are very confident in the outlook for our business. We have terrific underlying fundamentals in our commercial businesses, improving underlying results in our Personal Insurance business and steadily rising investment returns in our fixed income portfolio.

總而言之，我們對我們的業務前景非常有信心。我們的商業業務擁有出色的基本面，個人保險業務的基本業績不斷改善，固定收益投資組合的投資回報穩步上升。

As you've heard, we're also investing in impactful new capabilities to advance our ambitious innovation agenda. With that momentum and the best talent in the industry, we are well positioned to continue to deliver meaningful shareholder value over time. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

正如您所聽說的，我們還投資於有影響力的新功能，以推進我們雄心勃勃的創新議程。憑藉這一勢頭和業內最優秀的人才，我們有能力隨著時間的推移繼續為股東創造有意義的價值。至此，我很高興將電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Alan. We're pleased to have generated record levels of earned premium this quarter and an underlying combined ratio of 91.1% and a 170 basis point improvement from last year's strong results. This led to a very strong underlying underwriting gain of $615 million after tax, up $171 million or 39% from the prior year quarter.

謝謝你，艾倫。我們很高興本季度賺取的保費達到創紀錄的水平，基本綜合成本率為 91.1%，比去年的強勁業績提高了 170 個基點。這導致稅後 6.15 億美元的基礎承保收益非常強勁，比去年同期增加 1.71 億美元，即 39%。

The expense ratio for the second quarter improved 40 basis points from last year to 28.6%. Once again, benefiting from the combination of our focus on productivity and efficiency, coupled with strong top line growth.

第二季度費用率較去年下降40個基點至28.6%。再次受益於我們對生產力和效率的關注以及強勁的營收增長。

As Alan mentioned, the industry experienced a very active cat quarter and our second quarter results include $1.5 billion of pretax catastrophe losses, our second largest ever cat amount for a second quarter. As disclosed in the significant events table in our 10-Q, we had 6 events surpass the $100 million mark in Q2, the most ever for a single quarter since we began disclosing the table in 2013.

正如艾倫提到的，該行業經歷了一個非常活躍的巨災季度，我們第二季度的業績包括 15 億美元的稅前巨災損失，這是我們第二季度有史以來第二大巨災損失。正如我們 10 季度重大事件表中所披露的，第二季度有 6 起事件超過 1 億美元大關，這是自 2013 年開始披露該表以來單季度最多的事件。

Turning to prior year reserve development, we had total net favorable development of $60 million pretax. In Business Insurance, net unfavorable PYD of $101 million was the result of better-than-expected loss experience in workers' comp across a number of accident years, being more than offset by an increase in some of our other casualty reserves as well as for runoff operations.

就上一年的儲備開發而言，我們的稅前淨有利開發總額為 6000 萬美元。在商業保險方面，淨不利 PYD 為 1.01 億美元，這是由於在多個事故年份中工人賠償損失經歷好於預期的結果，但被我們其他一些傷亡準備金以及徑流業務的增加所抵消。

In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD of $119 million was driven by better-than-expected results in management liability and surety. Personal Insurance had $42 million of net favorable PYD driven by homeowners and other. After-tax net investment income of $594 million was in line with the prior year quarter. Fixed maturity NII was again higher than the prior year quarter reflecting both the benefit of higher average yields and higher invested assets.

在債券和特種債券方面，管理責任和擔保方面好於預期的業績推動了 1.19 億美元的淨有利 PYD。個人保險有 4200 萬美元的淨優惠 PYD，由房主和其他人推動。稅後淨投資收入為 5.94 億美元，與去年同期持平。固定期限的NII再次高於去年同期，反映出平均收益率上升和投資資產增加的好處。

Returns in the nonfixed income portfolio were solid, but as expected, were not as strong as the double-digit yield we experienced in the prior year quarter.

非固定收益投資組合的回報穩健，但正如預期的那樣，不如我們在上一年季度經歷的兩位數收益率。

With interest rates having moved higher during the second quarter, we are raising our outlook for fixed income NII, including earnings from short-term securities by $35 million after tax for the back half of the year. We now expect approximately $570 million after tax in the third quarter and $595 million after tax in the fourth quarter. New money rates as of June 30 are about 140 basis points higher than what's embedded in the portfolio, so fixed income NII should continue to improve as the portfolio gradually turns over and continues to grow.

隨著第二季度利率走高，我們將下半年固定收益NII（包括短期證券收益）的預期上調了3500萬美元。我們現在預計第三季度稅後約為 5.7 億美元，第四季度稅後約為 5.95 億美元。截至 6 月 30 日，新貨幣利率比投資組合中嵌入的利率高出約 140 個基點，因此隨著投資組合逐漸周轉並持續增長，固定收益 NII 應繼續改善。

Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter of $1.5 billion were again very strong. All our capital ratios were at or better than target levels, and we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $2 billion. In late May, we issued $750 million of 30-year debt in order to maintain the debt-to-capital ratio in line with our target range as our premium volume has continued to grow.

轉向資本管理。本季度運營現金流再次強勁，達到 15 億美元。我們所有的資本比率均達到或優於目標水平，本季度結束時，我們控股公司的流動性約為 20 億美元。 5 月下旬，我們發行了 7.5 億美元的 30 年期債券，以將債務與資本比率保持在我們的目標範圍內，同時我們的保費量持續增長。

Interest rates increased and spreads widened during the quarter, and as a result, our net unrealized investment loss increased from $3.9 billion after tax at March 31 to $4.6 billion after tax at June 30. As we've discussed in prior quarters, the changes in unrealized investment gains and losses generally do not impact how we manage our investment portfolio. We generally hold fixed income investments to maturity, the quality of our fixed income portfolio remains very high and changes in unrealized gains and losses have little impact on our cash flows, statutory surplus or regulatory capital requirements.

本季度利率上升，利差擴大，因此，我們的未實現投資淨損失從 3 月 31 日的稅後 39 億美元增加到 6 月 30 日的稅後 46 億美元。正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的，未實現投資收益和損失的變化通常不會影響我們管理投資組合的方式。我們通常持有固定收益投資至到期日，固定收益投資組合的質量仍然很高，未實現損益的變化對我們的現金流、法定盈餘或監管資本要求影響不大。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses was $115.45 at quarter end, up 1% from year-end and up 3% from a year ago. We returned $633 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter, comprising share repurchases of $400 million and dividends of $233 million. We have approximately $6.2 billion of capacity remaining under the share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors.

季度末調整後每股賬面價值（不包括未實現的淨投資損益）為 115.45 美元，比年末增長 1%，比去年同期增長 3%。本季度我們向股東返還了 6.33 億美元的資本，其中包括 4 億美元的股票回購和 2.33 億美元的股息。根據董事會的股票回購授權，我們剩餘約 62 億美元的產能。

Since the significant level of cat losses in late June resulted in lower earnings for the quarter than we had anticipated, we expect the level of share repurchases over the back half of the year to be lower than the level of share repurchases in the first half of the year.

由於6月下旬巨額巨額虧損導致本季度盈利低於我們的預期，因此我們預計下半年的股票回購水平將低於上半年的股票回購水平。

Turning to the topic of reinsurance. Page 20 of the webcast presentation shows a summary of our July 1 reinsurance placements. While we did see some meaningful price increases on our reinsurance renewals, those increases were broadly in line with the price increases we are obtaining on the direct property premiums we're writing. So there's little or no impact expected on margins.

回到再保險的話題。網絡廣播演示文稿的第 20 頁顯示了我們 7 月 1 日再保險投放的摘要。雖然我們確實看到再保險續保價格出現了一些有意義的上漲，但這些上漲與我們所寫的直接財產保費獲得的價格上漲大致一致。因此，預計對利潤率的影響很小或沒有。

Let me take another moment to highlight a few items on Page 20. First, we renewed our main cat reinsurance program at terms that were generally consistent with the expiring program. Second, we increased the coverage under our Northeast Property Treaty by fully placing the $850 million layer above the attachment point of $2.5 billion. A year ago, we placed $750 million of that $850 million layer and the attachment point was $2.25 billion. This treaty remains pretty far out on the tail for us.

讓我再花一點時間強調第 20 頁上的一些項目。首先，我們以與即將到期的計劃基本一致的條款續簽了我們的主要巨災再保險計劃。其次，我們將 8.5 億美元的附加層完全置於 25 億美元附加點之上，從而擴大了《東北財產條約》的覆蓋範圍。一年前，我們在 8.5 億美元的層中投入了 7.5 億美元，附著點為 22.5 億美元。該條約對我們來說還很遙遠。

Finally, as part of our ongoing management of tail-risk exposure for the enterprise and in response to inflation-driven growth and insured values in our Personal Insurance property book, we added a new hurricane cat excess-of-loss reinsurance program specific to Personal Insurance coastal exposure, providing 50% coverage for the $1 billion layer above an attachment point of $1.75 billion, again, far out on the tail. Any margin impact from this new program will be de minimis, given both the size of our PI property book and the level of price increases we are obtaining on that book.

最後，作為我們對企業尾部風險敞口持續管理的一部分，並為了應對通貨膨脹驅動的增長和個人保險財產賬簿中的保險價值，我們添加了一項新的颶風貓超額損失再保險計劃，專門針對個人保險沿海風險敞口，為 17.5 億美元附著點之上的 10 億美元層提供 50% 的保險，同樣位於尾部。考慮到我們 PI 財產賬簿的規模以及我們在該賬簿上獲得的價格上漲水平，這項新計劃對利潤率的影響將是微乎其微的。

To sum up the quarter, our ability to absorb $1.5 billion of pretax cat losses and still report slightly positive core income for the quarter is a testament to the overall strength of our franchise and the underlying fundamentals of our business. Q2 was another quarter of double-digit premium growth, improved underlying profitability and further improvement in our outlook for fixed income NII, all of which bodes well for our future returns. With that, I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of Business Insurance.

總結本季度，我們有能力吸收 15 億美元的稅前巨災損失，並且仍然報告本季度核心收入略為正數，這證明了我們特許經營的整體實力和我們業務的基本面。第二季度是又一個兩位數保費增長的季度，基礎盈利能力得到改善，我們對固定收益 NII 的前景進一步改善，所有這些都預示著我們未來的回報。這樣，我將把電話轉給格雷格，討論商業保險問題。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance produced $402 million of segment income for the second quarter, down from the prior year quarter driven by prior year reserve development and higher cats, as Dan mentioned. Underlying underwriting results continue to be exceptional with underlying underwriting income up more than 50% from the prior year quarter.

謝謝，丹。正如丹提到的，商業保險第二季度產生了 4.02 億美元的分部收入，低於去年同期，這是由於去年準備金增長和更高的貓的推動。基礎承保業績繼續表現出色，基礎承保收入較去年同期增長 50% 以上。

We're once again particularly pleased with the quarter's underlying combined ratio of 89.4% which improved by 3 points from the prior year quarter. The loss ratio benefited from property losses that were about 1.5 points better than our expectations for the current year quarter. The loss ratio also improved due to earned pricing. The expense ratio remained strong at 30.1%.

我們再次對本季度 89.4% 的基本綜合成本率感到特別滿意，比去年同期提高了 3 個百分點。損失率受益於財產損失，比我們對本季度的預期高出約 1.5 個百分點。由於贏得定價，損失率也有所改善。費用比率仍維持在 30.1% 的高水平。

Net written premiums increased 18% to a quarterly record of $5.2 billion, driven by renewal premium change of 12.8%, retention of 88% and new business of $671 million, all record highs. Underneath RPC, renewal rate change accelerated sequentially from the first quarter by 2.5 points to 7.2%. We're thrilled with these production results and the superior execution by our field team in the marketplace.

受續保保費變化 12.8%、保費保留率 88% 以及新業務 6.71 億美元（均創歷史新高）的推動，淨承保保費增長 18%，達到 52 億美元的季度記錄。在 RPC 方面，續訂率變化比第一季度連續加速 2.5 個百分點，達到 7.2%。我們對這些生產結果以及我們的現場團隊在市場上的卓越執行力感到非常興奮。

In terms of pricing, we're pleased with our response to the persistent environmental headwinds in both the property and liability lines. In each of our product lines, renewal premium change was higher than the first quarter. And beyond pricing, we continue to improve terms and conditions to ensure we're achieving an appropriate risk/reward trade-off on the business we write.

在定價方面，我們對財產和負債領域持續存在的環境不利因素的反應感到滿意。在我們的每個產品線中，續保保費變化均高於第一季度。除了定價之外，我們還繼續改進條款和條件，以確保我們在所撰寫的業務上實現適當的風險/回報權衡。

As we always say, we execute in a granular manner, deal by deal, class by class. And to that point, we're thrilled with our execution demonstrated by a record retention of 88% on our very high-quality book of business and a rate that is thoughtfully segmented by return profile.

正如我們常說的，我們以精細的方式執行，逐筆交易、逐級執行。就這一點而言，我們對我們的執行力感到非常興奮，我們的高質量業務記錄中的保留率達到創紀錄的 88%，並且該比率按回報情況進行了深思熟慮的細分。

New business as a percentage of the book returned to pre-pandemic levels, led by the property line. We're pleased with new business dollars at an all-time high. And as always, when it comes to new business, we remain focused on risk selection, underwriting, terms and conditions and pricing. We're also very pleased with the impact that our strategic investments are having on our production results.

新業務佔賬簿的百分比回到了大流行前的水平，其中以房地產線為首。我們對新業務收入達到歷史最高水平感到高興。一如既往，在新業務方面，我們仍然專注於風險選擇、承保、條款和條件以及定價。我們也對我們的戰略投資對我們的生產成果產生的影響感到非常滿意。

As for the individual businesses, in select, renewal premium change was up 1 point from the first quarter to a strong 10.6% while retention also remained historically high at 84%. New business increased $30 million or 28% from the prior year quarter driven by the continued success of our BOP 2.0 product.

至於個別業務，部分續保保費變化較第一季度上升 1 個百分點，達到 10.6%，而保留率也保持在 84% 的歷史高位。在我們的 BOP 2.0 產品持續成功的推動下，新業務比去年同期增加了 3000 萬美元，即 28%。

In Middle Market, renewal premium change was up more than 2 points sequentially from the first quarter to a historically high 10.5% with renewal rate change increasing sequentially by 1.5% to 5.9% and continued strong exposure growth. Retention was once again exceptional at 90% while new business was up 32% from the prior year quarter with increases across all account sizes in most markets.

在中間市場，續保保費變化較第一季度環比上升超過 2 個百分點，達到歷史高位 10.5%，續保費率變化環比上升 1.5% 至 5.9%，風險敞口持續強勁增長。保留率再次達到 90%，而新業務較去年同期增長 32%，大多數市場的所有賬戶規模均有所增長。

To sum up, Business Insurance had another strong quarter and continue to execute on the fundamentals to drive profitable growth. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

總而言之，商業保險又一個強勁的季度，並繼續遵循基本面推動盈利增長。這樣，我就把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty posted strong top and bottom-line results for the quarter. Segment income of $230 million was up slightly from the very strong prior year quarter. The combined ratio was a terrific 77.1%. The underlying combined ratio was a solid 87.8% for the quarter. A small number of surety losses drove the roughly 4-point increase in the underlying loss ratio year-over-year.

謝謝，格雷格。 Bond & Specialty 公佈了本季度強勁的營收和淨利潤業績。部門收入為 2.3 億美元，較去年同期的強勁表現略有增長。綜合比率高達 77.1%。本季度的基本綜合成本率為 87.8%。少量擔保損失導致基本損失率同比增加約 4 個百分點。

As we've said before, surety losses can be a bit lumpy. Even with the incremental losses this quarter, our returns in the surety line remain excellent.

正如我們之前所說，保證損失可能有點不穩定。即使本季度虧損不斷增加，我們的擔保額度回報仍然出色。

Turning to the top line. We delivered record net written premiums this quarter. In domestic management liability, we are pleased that we drove record retention of 91% in the quarter, up 2 points sequentially and 3 points from the second quarter of 2022 while continuing to achieve solid renewal premium change. This result reflects our team's deliberate execution to retain our high-quality book of business in light of the very strong returns.

轉向頂行。本季度我們交付了創紀錄的淨承保保費。在國內管理負債方面，我們很高興本季度的保留率達到了創紀錄的 91%，比上一季度提高了 2 個百分點，比 2022 年第二季度提高了 3 個百分點，同時繼續實現穩健的續保保費變化。這一結果反映了我們的團隊在非常強勁的回報的情況下為保持高質量的業務而進行的刻意執行。

We're also pleased that we increased new business 11% from the prior year quarter. That's a reflection of the strong franchise value we offer to our customers and distribution partners and a lot of hard work by our team in the field. Additionally, we're pleased to report record surety net written premiums in the quarter.

我們還很高興新業務比去年同期增長了 11%。這反映了我們為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的強大特許經營價值以及我們團隊在該領域的大量辛勤工作。此外，我們很高興地報告本季度創紀錄的保證淨承保保費。

So both top and bottom-line results for Bond & Specialty were once again strong this quarter, driven by our continued underwriting and risk management diligence, excellent execution by our field organization and the benefits from our ongoing strategic investments to extend our market-leading competitive advantages. And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

因此，在我們持續的承保和風險管理盡職調查、我們的現場組織的出色執行以及我們持續的戰略投資所帶來的好處的推動下，本季度債券和特種產品的頂線和底線業績再次強勁。現在我將把電話轉給邁克爾。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In Personal Insurance, the second quarter segment loss of $538 million and a combined ratio of 122% were significantly impacted by catastrophes. While it's not unusual for us to have a loss in the second quarter, given it's typically the quarter with the highest weather-related losses, catastrophe losses this quarter for both us and the industry were significantly elevated compared to historical results.

謝謝杰夫，大家早上好。在個人保險領域，第二季度部門虧損 5.38 億美元，綜合成本率為 122%，受到災難的嚴重影響。雖然我們在第二季度出現虧損並不罕見，但考慮到第二季度通常是與天氣相關的損失最高的季度，但與歷史結果相比，本季度我們和整個行業的災難損失都顯著升高。

Net written premiums for the quarter grew 13%, driven by double-digit renewal premium change in both domestic automobile and homeowners and other. The underlying combined ratio of 94.1% improved 2 points from the prior year quarter, reflecting an improvement in the underlying combined ratio in homeowners and other, partially offset by an increase in automobile.

在國內汽車和房主等領域兩位數續保保費變化的推動下，本季度淨承保保費增長了 13%。基本綜合成本率為 94.1%，較上年同期提高 2 個百分點，反映出房主和其他行業基本綜合成本率的改善，但部分被汽車行業的增長所抵消。

In automobile, the second quarter combined ratio was 108.4% with an underlying combined ratio of 103.5%. The underlying combined ratio increased 1.7 points from the prior year quarter due to higher severity driven by increased vehicle replacement and repair costs, and a mix shift from collision only claims towards claims with bodily injury and third-party property damage, which is more consistent with more cars on the road, leading to more multicar accidents. These increases were partially offset by the growing benefit of earned pricing and a lower expense ratio.

汽車方面，第二季度綜合成本率為108.4%，基本綜合成本率為103.5%。由於車輛更換和維修成本增加導致嚴重程度提高，以及從僅碰撞索賠向人身傷害和第三方財產損失索賠的混合轉變，基本綜合成本率比去年同期增長了 1.7 個百分點，這與道路上的汽車數量增加更一致，導致多車事故增多。這些增長被贏得定價的不斷增長的收益和較低的費用率部分抵消。

While some of the inflationary pressures in auto are beginning to show signs of easing, they are not improving at the rate we expected. Consequently, we're not yet achieving the written rate adequacy levels we had anticipated. While we continue to make progress and expect to get there in the coming quarters, exactly when will depend on a few things. For example, how quickly inflation comes down, how quickly we can get additional rate through the regulatory process and our actual loss experience.

雖然汽車行業的部分通脹壓力開始顯示出緩解的跡象，但改善速度並未達到我們預期。因此，我們尚未達到我們預期的書面利率充足水平。雖然我們繼續取得進展並預計在未來幾個季度實現這一目標，但具體時間將取決於一些因素。例如，通貨膨脹下降的速度有多快，我們可以多快通過監管程序獲得額外的利率以及我們的實際損失經歷。

In homeowners and other, the second quarter combined ratio of 135.1% increased 17.1 points due to significantly higher catastrophe losses. The underlying combined ratio of 85.2% improved 5.1 points, primarily driven by non-cat weather losses that were lower than in the prior year quarter. Non-cat weather losses in the quarter were also better than our expectations as more events reached our catastrophe threshold.

在房主和其他方面，由於災難損失顯著增加，第二季度綜合成本率為 135.1%，增加了 17.1 個百分點。 85.2% 的基本綜合成本率提高了 5.1 個百分點，主要是由於非貓眼天氣損失低於去年同期。隨著更多事件達到我們的災難閾值，本季度的非氣象天氣損失也好於我們的預期。

Turning to production. Our results continue to demonstrate disciplined market execution of rate and non-rate actions in both lines as we remain focused on improving profitability and managing growth in response to continued inflationary pressures in the environment. In domestic automobile, renewal premium change of 16.1% increased 2.1 points from the first quarter of 2023. We expect renewal premium change to continue to increase from current levels throughout the second half of this year.

轉向生產。我們的業績繼續表明，我們在兩條線上的利率和非利率行動方面都遵循嚴格的市場執行方式，因為我們仍然專注於提高盈利能力和管理增長，以應對環境中持續的通脹壓力。國內汽車方面，續保保費變化為 16.1%，較 2023 年第一季度增加 2.1 個百分點。我們預計今年下半年續保保費變化將在目前水平上繼續增加。

In domestic homeowners and other, renewal premium change of 19.2% was broadly consistent with the first quarter. We expect renewal premium change to remain in the high teens through the end of the year.

在國內房主和其他方面，續保保費變化 19.2%，與第一季度基本一致。我們預計，到今年年底，續保保費變化將保持在十幾歲左右。

Before I conclude, I just want to take a minute to thank our claim partners for responding to our customers when it matters most. Behind the aggregate statistics of catastrophe events occurring virtually every day of the quarter, are tens of thousands of individual customers whose homes and vehicles are damaged or destroyed and whose lives are disrupted. In each case, our claim team is responding, helping those customers get their homes repaired and their cars back on the road, continuing to deliver high-quality customer service despite the high volume of claims.

在結束之前，我想花一點時間感謝我們的理賠合作夥伴在最重要的時候對客戶做出的回應。在該季度幾乎每天都發生的災難事件的匯總統計數據背後，是數以萬計的個人客戶的房屋和車輛遭到損壞或毀壞，他們的生活受到干擾。在每種情況下，我們的索賠團隊都會做出回應，幫助這些客戶修好房屋並讓他們的汽車重新上路，儘管索賠量很大，但仍繼續提供高質量的客戶服務。

Both the loss environment and the Personal Insurance marketplace remain dynamic. We continue to respond to the changing environment with a steadfast focus on execution, quickly addressing changes in loss experience with targeted pricing, underwriting and other non-rate actions, remaining disciplined in writing business that is consistent with our appetite and making thoughtful and impactful investments for the future. We're confident that the actions we've taken and will continue to take will improve profitability as we move through 2023 and beyond. Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

損失環境和個人保險市場仍然充滿活力。我們繼續以堅定不移的執行力來應對不斷變化的環境，通過有針對性的定價、承保和其他非利率行動快速應對損失經驗的變化，在符合我們胃口的業務中保持紀律，並為未來進行深思熟慮和有影響力的投資。我們相信，我們已經採取並將繼續採取的行動將在 2023 年及以後提高盈利能力。現在我將把電話轉回阿貝。

Thanks, Michael. We're ready to open up for questions.

謝謝，邁克爾。我們準備好接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Greg Peters of Raymond James.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

I guess notwithstanding Michael's comments, I -- just curious about if there's going to be any shift in the strategy on property considering what's going on with catastrophe losses. And I'm also trying to triangulate or bridge the difference between personal lines, which clearly was a negative surprise. And I think, Greg, in your comments, you said property actually was a better -- a net gain for you guys relative to expectations. So any broad comments on your views on property in light of the cats and in the different segments, too, please?

我想儘管邁克爾有這樣的評論，我只是好奇考慮到災難損失的情況，房地產策略是否會發生任何轉變。我還試圖三角測量或彌合個人路線之間的差異，這顯然是一個負面的驚喜。我認為，格雷格，在你的評論中，你說房地產實際上更好——相對於你們的預期來說，這是一個淨收益。那麼，對於您對貓以及不同領域的財產的看法，有什麼廣泛的評論嗎？

Sure. So I can start on the property side, Greg. Certainly, the catastrophe experience in the quarter was significantly worse than prior year and worse than our expectations. In terms of a shift in strategy, what I would say is we continue to execute a series of actions in the property line to manage growth and improve profitability. And again, first and foremost, you see that in the pricing, in the production statistics that we shared with you on the webcast. But beyond that, we're managing terms and conditions, think deductibles, think roof age eligibility, think coverage levels on roof replacement in a variety of actions that we look at very granularly state by state, market by market, account by account.

當然。所以我可以從房地產方面開始，格雷格。當然，本季度的災難經歷明顯比去年更糟糕，也比我們的預期更糟糕。就戰略轉變而言，我想說的是，我們將繼續在房地產領域執行一系列行動，以管理增長並提高盈利能力。再說一次，首先也是最重要的是，您可以在我們在網絡廣播上與您分享的定價和生產統計數據中看到這一點。但除此之外，我們還通過各種行動來管理條款和條件，考慮免賠額，考慮屋頂年齡資格，考慮屋頂更換的覆蓋水平，我們逐州、逐個市場、逐個賬戶地仔細研究這些行動。

And then one of the other things we're really encouraged by, Alan mentioned in his discussion around artificial intelligence, is our aerial imagery and artificial intelligence-enabled capability we have there to refine our underwriting and our risk selection. So less a shift in strategy and more a continuation of a really broad array of profit management and profit improvement efforts in the personal lines' property space.

艾倫在關於人工智能的討論中提到，我們真正感到鼓舞的另一件事是我們的航空圖像和人工智能支持的能力，我們可以改進我們的承保和風險選擇。因此，與其說是戰略上的轉變，不如說是在個人險種財產領域繼續進行一系列真正廣泛的利潤管理和利潤改進工作。

And Greg, this is Greg. Just to follow up on the commercial side. So many times, the catastrophes, the split between personal and commercial can be -- that really depends on the concentration of where the catastrophes hit in terms of where commercial businesses are. In terms of your comment, I think your reference in my prepared comments when I was explaining the underlying combined ratio. And I mentioned that property was better than expectation, and that really was non-cat property.

格雷格，這是格雷格。只是為了跟進商業方面。很多時候，災難、個人和商業之間的分歧可能是——這實際上取決於災難襲擊的集中程度以及商業企業所在的地區。就您的評論而言，我認為您在解釋基本綜合比率時參考了我準備的評論。我提到財產比預期要好，而且那確實是非貓財產。

Got it. All right. And then I guess I'll pivot, Greg also during your comments, you talked about reserve development. Maybe spend a minute, don't really touch upon workers' comp, but the adverse development in the other lines.

知道了。好的。然後我想我會轉向，格雷格也在你的評論中，你談到了儲備開發。也許花一點時間，不要真正觸及工人的補償，而是其他生產線的不利發展。

Greg, it's Dan Frey. I'll take the PYD comment. So in the quarter for Business Insurance, as we said, overall unfavorable $101 million. Comp continues to be favorable. The comp favorable was very strong this quarter, more than $250 million of good news. So that leaves us with the other liability lines, including runoff being unfavorable. And that's really led by umbrella, which is sort of the poster child for perpetual core levels of inflation, just compounding and pushing more claims up into the umbrella layer.

格雷格，我是丹·弗雷。我會接受 PYD 的評論。因此，正如我們所說，本季度商業保險總體不利 1.01 億美元。比較繼續有利。本季度的競爭優勢非常強勁，好消息超過 2.5 億美元。因此，這給我們留下了其他責任線，包括不利的徑流。這實際上是由保護傘主導的，保護傘是永久核心通脹水平的典型代表，只是複合併將更多索賠推入保護傘層。

But a couple of things to put that in context, I guess, we're making a relatively small adjustment to those liability lines, given the fact that there are more than $15 billion worth of reserves in those lines. The returns in BI continue to remain excellent. And across the company, I'd just remind us, including the good news coming out of Bond & Specialty, which is also liability-type coverage, we had a net favorable $60 million for the quarter.

但我認為，考慮到這些負債線的準備金價值超過 150 億美元，我們正在對這些負債線進行相對較小的調整。 BI 的回報繼續保持優異。我想提醒大家的是，在整個公司範圍內，包括來自 Bond & Specialty（也是責任型保險）的好消息，我們本季度的淨收益為 6000 萬美元。

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden of Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I had just a follow-up question just on the adverse prior year development. I guess, what does that do to your view of future loss cost trends. It sounds like some of it is runoff, but also some of it is more business that you're obviously still writing. So I'd be interested in how you've changed your 5.5% to 6% loss trend assumption.

我有一個關於前一年不利發展的後續問題。我想，這對您對未來損失成本趨勢的看法有何影響。聽起來有些是徑流，但也有一些是你顯然仍在寫的更多業務。所以我對你們如何改變 5.5% 至 6% 的損失趨勢假設感興趣。

Yes. David, it's Alan. Thank you. Two things in response to that. One, I would say that -- I would just point you to the combined ratio and underlying combined in BI in a quarter. And obviously, we think about how prior year development influences that through base year changes, and you can see a pretty solid result. And as we've shared with you before, I always want to just preface this by saying it's a very blunt instrument to try to capture what's going on across billions of dollars of premiums in a single loss trend metric. Every line has its own dynamics and the question usually comes in, in terms of loss trend, but of course, there's base year changes, there's exposure changes. There's other adjustments to loss activity. So always puts and takes in all those measures, but all in, I'd say there really hasn't been much significant change.

是的。大衛，是艾倫。謝謝。對此有兩件事回應。首先，我想說的是，我只想向您指出一個季度 BI 中的綜合比率和基礎資產組合。顯然，我們考慮了前一年的發展如何通過基準年的變化影響這一點，你可以看到一個相當可靠的結果。正如我們之前與您分享的那樣，我總是想在序言中說，這是一種非常生硬的工具，試圖在單一損失趨勢指標中捕捉數十億美元保費的情況。每條線都有自己的動態，問題通常是在損失趨勢方面出現的，但當然，有基準年的變化，有暴露的變化。對損失活動還有其他調整。因此，總是要採取和採取所有這些措施，但總而言之，我想說確實沒有太大的重大變化。

And I would go back to a comment that Dan made on $15-odd billion of reserves, this is a relatively small adjustment, and we're always every quarter looking at all our reserves and sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down, but relatively small. And as Dan said, the returns in BI continue to be exceptional.

我想回到 Dan 對 15 億美元準備金所做的評論，這是一個相對較小的調整，我們總是每個季度都會查看我們所有的準備金，有時它們會上升，有時會下降，但相對較小。正如 Dan 所說，BI 的回報仍然非常出色。

Got it. And then I guess I should just take that. I mean, it's obviously a very fluid environment. But I guess it would -- fluid macro environment. It would seem that just given the re-acceleration in renewal rate change, the gap between written rate and loss trend has been expanding. I guess, is that the right take? Or is there anything else that I'm missing there? Obviously, we have to take catastrophes into account. But there -- I know Fidelis has come in. I'm just wondering if there's anything else I'm missing on the underlying loss ratio.

知道了。然後我想我應該接受這個。我的意思是，這顯然是一個非常流動的環境。但我想它會——不穩定的宏觀環境。看來，只要續費率變化再次加速，寫入費率與損耗趨勢之間的差距就一直在擴大。我想，這是正確的做法嗎？或者還有什麼我想念的嗎？顯然，我們必須考慮到災難。但我知道 Fidelis 已經介入了。我只是想知道在基本損失率方面我是否還遺漏了任何其他內容。

No. I mean other than -- Greg mentioned in his script that the non-cat property losses came in a little better than we thought. But for the most part, I think the way you size it up is about right.

不，我的意思是——格雷格在他的劇本中提到，非貓財產損失比我們想像的要好一些。但在大多數情況下，我認為你衡量它的方式是正確的。

Yes. And David, it's Dan. I'll just -- you mentioned Fidelis. I mean we said at the beginning of the year that Fidelis was not going to be big enough to have a meaningful impact on the underlying combined ratio, and that's still the case, including Q2.

是的。大衛，是丹。我只是——你提到了菲德利斯。我的意思是，我們在今年年初說過，Fidelis 的規模不會大到足以對基本綜合成本率產生有意義的影響，現在情況仍然如此，包括第二季度。

But I think you got it right, David.

但我認為你說得對，大衛。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis of Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自自主研究中心的 Ryan Tunis。

So yes, Alan, I hear you that you got $15 billion of reserves, sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down. But I guess I'd say they don't usually go up by this much in a given quarter, especially when there's so much workers' comp reserve releases. And I mean there's also like a pretty sharp acceleration of pricing. So it does look from the outside, like, I don't know, maybe you guys are seeing something new or you've identified something from a trend perspective. I guess just anything in this review, what have you learned this year that I guess you might not have known a year ago.

所以，是的，艾倫，我聽說你有 150 億美元的儲備，有時會上升，有時會下降。但我想我想說的是，它們通常不會在特定季度內上漲這麼多，特別是當有如此多的工人補償準備金釋放時。我的意思是，定價也急劇加速。所以從外面看，我不知道，也許你們正在看到一些新的東西，或者你們從趨勢的角度發現了一些東西。我想這篇評論中的任何內容，你今年學到了什麼，我猜你一年前可能不知道。

Let me start, Ryan and then I'll turn it over to Dan but we're squaring triangles and we're doing -- we're applying actuarial analytics to a series of triangles in historical losses and that's really how we're coming up with this. I mean the overwhelming thing that all of us are looking at is higher levels of economic inflation. And so that is no doubt a contributor here.

讓我開始，瑞安，然後我會把它交給丹，但我們正在對三角形進行平方，我們正在做——我們正在將精算分析應用於歷史損失中的一系列三角形，這就是我們真正想出的方法。我的意思是，我們所有人都在關注的壓倒性的事情是更高水平的經濟通脹。因此，這無疑是這裡的一個貢獻者。

Yes, Ryan, the only thing I think I'd add to Alan's comments, which I agree with, we've said, as people have asked over the last several quarters and pricing has continued to be strong for quite a while now, is that sustainable? And here you see it ticking up. And I think we just keep going through the litany of pricing is going to be a reaction to what's your return target and what's happening in the loss environment. So we talk about continued increased frequency and severity of weather losses and you see that certainly this quarter. Headline inflation, social inflation that we said never went away and an uncertain overall macro environment. And so those things continue to factor into our pricing. Those things also get evaluated every quarter and every year in terms of our view of loss trend in prior year reserve development.

是的，瑞安，我想我唯一要補充的一點是艾倫的評論，我同意這一點，我們已經說過，正如人們在過去幾個季度中所詢問的那樣，並且定價在相當長的一段時間內持續強勁，這是否可持續？在這裡你可以看到它正在上升。我認為我們只是繼續進行一長串的定價，這將是對你的回報目標和損失環境中發生的情況的反應。因此，我們談論天氣損失的頻率和嚴重程度持續增加，您肯定會在本季度看到這一點。總體通脹、我們所說的從未消失的社會通脹以及整體宏觀環境的不確定性。因此，這些因素繼續影響我們的定價。根據我們對上一年儲備開發損失趨勢的看法，每個季度和每年都會對這些事情進行評估。

So what you're seeing here again across the place, net favorable prior year reserve development, I get the focus on the liability lines. So -- but really, what you're seeing there is a degree of difference as opposed to some surprise. We've been talking about inflation for a long time, and we were the first people to be talking about social inflation and never thought that one anywhere. So directionally, it's not a surprise. It's just an adjustment to the order of magnitude.

因此，您在這裡再次看到的是，上一年的淨有利準備金發展，我將重點放在負債額度上。所以——但實際上，你所看到的存在一定程度的差異，而不是一些驚喜。我們談論通貨膨脹已經很長時間了，我們是第一批談論社會通貨膨脹的人，但從來沒有想到過這個問題。所以從方向上來說，這並不奇怪。這只是數量級的調整。

Got it. And then for Michael and maybe, Greg, I guess on the cat front, I mean you guys were highlighting frequency of events, but it seems like to me that severity must be at least as big of a contributor. Maybe, I guess, talk about -- yes, in other words, I don't think I would have ever expected $1 billion of personal lines (inaudible) with 6 PCS events. So from a severity perspective, like how -- what's weighing on is here? Is it like the size of the hail, in other words, like the nature of the weather? Or how much of it is elevated repair cost, demand surge like that type of thing?

知道了。然後對於邁克爾，也許還有格雷格，我想在貓方面，我的意思是你們強調了事件的頻率，但在我看來，嚴重性必須至少是一個重要的貢獻者。也許，我想，談論 - 是的，換句話說，我認為我不會期望通過 6 個 PCS 賽事獲得 10 億美元的個人線路（聽不清）。因此，從嚴重性的角度來看，比如，這裡的壓力是什麼？是不是就像冰雹的大小，換句話說，就像天氣的本質一樣？或者其中有多少是維修成本上升、需求激增之類的？

Sure, Ryan, it's Michael. Yes, all of that. So I think your point is a good one. So if you look at the quarter, I think the number of events, PCS-designated events was 19, that is above the long-term average. So there's a frequency of events that's higher. And that's a relatively high number for Q2. But actually, the majority of it really is severity.

當然，瑞安，我是邁克爾。是的，所有這些。所以我認為你的觀點很好。因此，如果您查看本季度，我認為 PCS 指定事件的數量為 19 起，高於長期平均水平。因此，事件發生的頻率更高。對於第二季度來說，這個數字相對較高。但實際上，其中大部分確實是嚴重性。

Now some of that severity, to your point, is the underlying weather activity itself. I think on average, the events in this second quarter impacted about 8 states a piece as opposed to 6 states a piece. So they were a little broader and more all-encompassing than again, historical averages. So you've got the number of events and then the size and magnitude.

就您而言，這種嚴重程度的一部分是潛在的天氣活動本身。我認為平均而言，第二季度的事件影響了大約 8 個州，而不是每個州 6 個。因此，它們比歷史平均水平更廣泛、更全面。這樣你就得到了事件的數量，然後是事件的大小和強度。

There certainly are -- there's anecdotal evidence of more severe larger hail, those types of things. But the other item that you mentioned, it really is as big, if not a bigger factor than sort of the frequency and the magnitude of the events, and that's just insured values and cost to repair and the severity pressures that we've been talking about across both auto and property and frankly, any first-party coverage is that, that we offer as an organization, really exacerbating that.

當然有——有軼事證據表明有更嚴重、更大的冰雹，諸如此類的事情。但你提到的另一件事，它確實與事件的頻率和嚴重程度一樣大，甚至更大，這只是保險價值和維修成本，以及我們一直在談論的汽車和財產的嚴重壓力，坦率地說，我們作為一個組織提供的任何第一方保險確實加劇了這種情況。

So I think it's all of those things, but it's at least as much a severity issue and at least as much driven by economic inflation as it is the weather activity itself.

所以我認為這是所有這些事情，但它至少是一個嚴重的問題，至少與天氣活動本身一樣受到經濟通貨膨脹的驅動。

And Ryan, from a Business Insurance or a commercial point of view, we weren't immune from some of the same dynamics that Michael just articulated. I think we just have a broader array of products that you get a little more diversification when you add the workers' comp to GL and all the other products on top of that.

瑞安，從商業保險或商業的角度來看，我們也未能倖免於邁克爾剛才闡述的一些相同的動態。我認為我們只是擁有更廣泛的產品系列，當您將工人的補償添加到 GL 以及除此之外的所有其他產品時，您會獲得更多的多樣化。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

First one I had for you is on the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio improvement. I was hoping you could help us unpack it a little in terms of workers' comp versus maybe the other products, certainly, the reserve development is sort of a good indication about healthy things there are on workers' comp, but pricing is down. I mean is that a business line that's helping the underlying improvement year-over-year? Or is it detracting from it? Could you kind of dimension that and help us think through some of the underlying drivers?

我為您提供的第一個建議是關於商業保險基本損失率的改善。我希望你能幫助我們從工人補償與其他產品的角度來解開它，當然，儲備的發展是工人補償上健康的東西的一個很好的跡象，但價格下降了。我的意思是，該業務線是否有助於逐年實現根本改善？或者它有損於它嗎？您能否對此進行衡量並幫助我們思考一些潛在的驅動因素？

Yes, Alex, it's Dan. We're really -- we don't do profitability by line. We're not going to go into that level of detail. You call out comp, it has been a good line for us. It continues to be a good line for us. But really, the way to think about BI is the blend of the products, and that's the level at which we'll talk about the underlying.

是的，亞歷克斯，我是丹。我們確實不按生產線計算盈利能力。我們不會深入討論這一細節。你喊出comp，這對我們來說是一條很好的路線。對我們來說，它仍然是一條很好的線路。但實際上，思考 BI 的方式是產品的混合，這就是我們討論底層的層面。

Okay. The second question I had is on pricing. There was, I'd say, more re-acceleration in your pricing than we're hearing from, I guess, Marsh earlier today in some of the barometers that are out there and so forth. Anything that's unique around the way you're approaching the market there and could you help dimension at all how much of that re-acceleration of pricing is necessary for the reinsurance costs you mentioned. It sounds like maybe loss cost trend hasn't moved that much. But help us think a little bit about how much of that can help you tread water versus allow more underlying improvement?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於定價。我想說，你們的定價重新加速的程度比我們今天早些時候從馬什那裡聽到的一些晴雨表等還要多。您進入那里市場的方式有什麼獨特之處嗎？您能否幫助確定您提到的再保險成本需要多少定價重新加速。聽起來損失成本趨勢可能沒有太大變化。但請幫助我們思考一下，其中有多少可以幫助您原地踏步，而不是允許更多的潛在改進？

I think we're going to try to stay away from forecasting margins. And I think it may have been David, who went to this question earlier and just said, renewal premium change is close to 13% and you're saying there's not a lot of movement in loss trend is -- should we take it on face value. I think broadly, the answer is yes. But really, I think what's going on here is there are some headwinds. There's -- reinsurance costs are higher, inflation is higher. We're in a tight labor market, there's weather and so on. So we're reacting to all those things. And on the other hand, after years of pretty good pricing, returns are in a pretty good place. And so hats off to our field organization, they are threading that needle incredibly well. And returns are -- were excellent. And we're pricing to continue to maintain and maybe even improve the returns.

我認為我們將盡量避免預測利潤率。我認為可能是大衛，他早些時候談到了這個問題，他只是說，續保保費變化接近 13%，而你說損失趨勢沒有太大變化——我們是否應該從表面上看待它。我認為從廣義上講，答案是肯定的。但實際上，我認為這裡發生的事情存在一些阻力。再保險成本更高，通貨膨脹也更高。我們正處於勞動力市場緊張、天氣等因素的影響下。所以我們正在對所有這些事情做出反應。另一方面，經過多年相當不錯的定價，回報也相當不錯。因此，向我們的現場組織致敬，他們的穿線工作非常出色。回報非常好。我們的定價是為了繼續維持甚至可能提高回報。

Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan of Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛麗絲·格林斯潘。

My first question, within BI, the underlying loss ratio improved. When we look at the quarter, right, the improvement year-over-year was about [300] basis points. And I know you guys said that there was 150 basis points from better property results. I think that was 1 point negative last year. So if we're looking year-over-year, is it right to say it was 2.5 points better on property and then the remainder, like 50 basis points is earned rate over trend? Or is there something else going on? And I know that's just kind of looking all in, but something else going on with the margins in the quarter?

我的第一個問題是，在 BI 內，潛在的損失率有所改善。當我們查看本季度時，右圖，同比改善約為 [300] 個基點。我知道你們說過，更好的房地產業績有 150 個基點。我認為去年是負 1 分。因此，如果我們逐年比較，是否可以說房地產上漲 2.5 個基點，然後剩餘的（例如 50 個基點）是盈利率高於趨勢？還是還有其他事情發生？我知道這只是全力以赴，但本季度的利潤率還存在其他問題嗎？

Yes, Elyse, it's Dan. So I think you're thinking about the property piece the right way. And then there's 50 basis points left over and Greg mentioned the continued benefit of earned pricing. That's not the only thing going on in there. As always, there are pluses and minuses. We're trying to call out the main drivers for you. And those are the 2 main drivers. If there was anything else of real significance, I think we do a pretty good job of trying to make sure we include that in the commentary.

是的，愛麗絲，我是丹。所以我認為你正在以正確的方式考慮財產部分。然後還剩下 50 個基點，格雷格提到了贏得定價的持續好處。這並不是那裡發生的唯一事情。一如既往，有優點也有缺點。我們正在努力為您找出主要驅動因素。這些是兩個主要驅動因素。如果還有其他真正重要的事情，我認為我們在努力確保將其納入評論方面做得非常好。

And then my second question, the RRC improved a good amount sequentially. It sounds like that was broad-based in property and liability lines. I know this is obviously a bigger quarter for property in terms of business mix. I just want to get a sense of -- just confirm that I'm thinking about that right, that it was more than just property that drove the improvement in the RRC. And how should we think about -- any color you could just give in terms of that RRC as we think about the Q3 and beyond?

然後是我的第二個問題，RRC 連續改善了很多。聽起來這在財產和責任方面有著廣泛的基礎。我知道就業務組合而言，這顯然是房地產行業更大的季度。我只是想了解一下——只是確認我的想法是正確的，推動 RRC 改善的不僅僅是財產。當我們考慮第三季度及以後的產品時，我們應該如何考慮 - 您可以根據 RRC 給出任何顏色？

Are you talking about renewal price change, Elyse? Is that...

你是在談論續訂價格變化嗎，Elyse？就是它...

Well, I was talking about the renewal rate, but -- renewal rate yes, in BI.

嗯，我說的是續訂率，但是——續訂率是的，在 BI 中。

Yes, Elyse, you're right. I mean clearly, we had a real strong quarter in terms of both rate and exposure in property, but we also had significant movement across the rest of the portfolio also, again, in both rate and exposure.

是的，愛麗絲，你說得對。我的意思顯然是，就房地產的利率和風險敞口而言，我們的季度表現非常強勁，但我們投資組合的其餘部分在利率和風險敞口方面也出現了重大變動。

I'd say, Elyse, if you're asking whether it was broad-based or narrow, I think the answer to that, it was broad-based.

我想說，Elyse，如果你問它是基礎廣泛的還是狹隘的，我認為答案是基礎廣泛的。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith of UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩·梅雷迪思。

A couple here. First for Jeff, I know you talked about the surety losses just being a couple and they can be lumpy. But are we seeing any signs of maybe some pressures in that line from a loss cost perspective, given what's going on with commercial real estate and other things that are happening right now?

這裡有一對夫婦。首先，傑夫，我知道你談到了作為一對夫婦的擔保損失，而且它們可能會很不穩定。但是，考慮到商業房地產和目前正在發生的其他事情，我們是否從損失成本的角度看到了這方面可能存在一些壓力的跡象？

Brian, it's Jeff. Thanks. I would say that we're watching inflation in materials and labor costs relative to construction. But honestly, really, I think the prepared remarks really summed it up for you, right? We had a couple of losses that drove the underlying loss ratio change. And ultimately, this can be a lumpy line, and we feel really good about our market-leading surety book.

布萊恩，是傑夫。謝謝。我想說的是，我們正在關注與建築相關的材料和勞動力成本的通貨膨脹。但說實話，我認為準備好的言論確實為您總結了這一點，對嗎？我們有一些損失導致了潛在損失率的變化。最終，這可能是一條崎嶇的路線，我們對我們市場領先的擔保書感到非常滿意。

The higher interest rates matter also? I mean when you get a big cut -- big jump in financing costs, right, first for contractors and stuff?

更高的利率也很重要嗎？我的意思是，當你得到大幅削減時——融資成本大幅上漲，對吧，首先是承包商之類的？

Sure. The credit availability for our contractors is absolutely an issue. We take that into account with our high credit quality book of business, the way we underwrite this book. We've got a high-quality book of contractors that we focus on there. And so your point is well taken. It's a part of the underwriting process. That's where I'd leave it. Thanks for the question.

當然。我們承包商的信貸可用性絕對是一個問題。我們在承保這本書的方式中考慮到了我們的高信用質量業務手冊的這一點。我們有一本我們重點關注的高質量承包商名冊。所以你的觀點得到了很好的接受。這是承保流程的一部分。那就是我要把它留下的地方。謝謝你的提問。

And then, Michael, I'm just curious, can you talk a little bit about kind of the regulatory environment right now in personal lines. Obviously, some states are getting a little more kind of an even rate, but are we seeing any pushback kind of starting to emerge from certain states as far as the level of rate going through?

然後，邁克爾，我只是很好奇，你能從個人角度談談目前的監管環境嗎？顯然，一些州的利率變得更加均勻，但就利率水平而言，我們是否看到某些州開始出現任何阻力？

Yes, Brian. Thanks for the question. And I think it's an astute observation. As we talk about pretty consistently, we feel pretty good about our relationships with the departments of insurance, we really endeavor to make sure they have all the information necessary to evaluate and improve our rate increase requests. And starting with us, we continue to file for increases that align with our most recent experience and our indicated rate needs. That said, and we're seeing and you're seeing in the headlines, some news about increased scrutiny and/or states considering or proposing changes to the way that they regulate pricing in response to the continued parade of increases necessary to keep up with loss costs and so I'd say on the margins, there's a couple of places where it's getting a little more challenging. But broadly speaking, we have still been able to file and get approved the rate we think we need in response to increased costs.

是的，布萊恩。謝謝你的提問。我認為這是一個敏銳的觀察。正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我們對與保險部門的關係感覺非常好，我們確實努力確保他們擁有評估和改進我們的加息請求所需的所有信息。從我們開始，我們將繼續申請符合我們最近的經驗和我們指定的費率需求的增長。也就是說，我們在頭條新聞中看到，一些新聞涉及加強審查和/或各州考慮或提議改變他們監管定價的方式，以應對持續增加的必要費用，以跟上損失成本，所以我想說的是，在邊際上，有幾個地方變得更具挑戰性。但總的來說，我們仍然能夠按照我們認為應對成本增加所需的速度提交申請並獲得批准。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker of Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬什·尚克（Josh Shanker）。

Alan, you began the conference call with a preempt on artificial intelligence and analytics. It's been an unusual 3 years in terms of interpreting loss cost trends with the courts being opened and closed during COVID and very wildly changing conditions under loss trend. Is the data quality that you are looking at right now, any less reliable in your mind than you think it normally is? Are we in a state where extra caution needs to be placed on being comfortable with those numbers that you're using for reserving practices?

艾倫，您在電話會議開始時首先談到了人工智能和分析。就解釋損失成本趨勢而言，這是不尋常的三年，法院在新冠疫情期間開放和關閉，損失趨勢下的情況發生了巨大的變化。您現在看到的數據質量是否比您通常認為的更不可靠？我們是否處於需要格外小心以適應您用於預訂實踐的數字的狀態？

I would say the answer to that, Josh, is yes. And I think we've said pretty consistently over the last few years that we have been cautious in reflecting that level of uncertainty into the way we think about loss cost and reserves. So I think the answer is yes, and we've been doing exactly that.

喬什，我想說，答案是肯定的。我認為我們在過去幾年中一直表示，我們在考慮損失成本和準備金的方式時一直謹慎地反映這種不確定性程度。所以我認為答案是肯定的，而且我們一直在這樣做。

And I mean, look we're all just throwing shells from the cheap seats a little bit. Can you talk a little bit about some of that -- how you get more conservative or how you -- in a time of uncertainty, how you get better or what you're doing in order to offset the risks associated around with bad data and whatnot?

我的意思是，看我們都只是從便宜的座位上扔了一點貝殼。您能否談談其中的一些內容——在不確定的時期，您如何變得更加保守，或者您如何變得更好，或者您正在做什麼，以抵消與不良數據等相關的風險？

Yes. It's probably a longer conversation, Josh, we can follow up, but let me just give you one example, and I think we've said this over the last couple of years, if you were just looking at the data, you might have assumed that some aspects of loss trend had improved over the last couple of years and whether that's true in Personal Insurance and you see the lack of negative PYD in personal auto, for example. Or if you look at social inflation, we said as the courts were closed, that data could have been misinterpreted to mean things were getting better. You look at that data and you say, "I don't believe it." And we understand that it's distorted and that there are other things that could be impacting it. And so we're going to do the best we can to try to understand where the uncertainty is coming from and to make sure that we're reflecting our view of uncertainty as we're thinking about either our prior year reserves or managing our current loss pace.

是的。這可能是一個較長的對話，喬什，我們可以跟進，但讓我給你舉一個例子，我想我們在過去幾年裡已經說過了這一點，如果你只看數據，你可能會認為損失趨勢的某些方面在過去幾年中有所改善，以及在個人保險中是否屬實，例如，你會看到個人汽車中缺乏負 PYD。或者，如果你看看社會通貨膨脹，我們說過，當法院關閉時，這些數據可能會被誤解為意味著情況正在好轉。你看著這些數據，你會說：“我不相信。”我們知道它是扭曲的，並且還有其他因素可能會影響它。因此，我們將盡最大努力了解不確定性從何而來，並確保在考慮上一年的準備金或管理當前的損失速度時，反映我們對不確定性的看法。

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields of KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

I want to start with a question on personal lines. Michael mentioned that the deceleration in claim cost inflation wasn't as strong as anticipated. And I was hoping you could give us some color on what I guess, the indicators that you've previously used, what they're suggesting for personal loss cost inflation for the back half of the year?

我想先問一個關於個人的問題。邁克爾提到，索賠成本通脹的減速並不像預期的那麼強勁。我希望你能給我們一些我的猜測，你之前使用的指標，他們對今年下半年個人損失成本通脹的建議？

Sure, Meyer. I don't know that, that the external indicators that we look at are significantly different than the ones you look at or do have available. What I can say is auto severity has sort of remained stubbornly in the low double digits, and we had not anticipated that it would remain in double-digit territory for this long.

當然，邁耶。我不知道我們看到的外部指標與您看到的或現有的指標有很大不同。我能說的是，汽車嚴重程度一直頑固地保持在兩位數的低水平，我們沒有預料到它會在兩位數的範圍內保持這麼長時間。

I think the other thing I commented on in my prepared remarks was that we are seeing some signs of easing. The predominant thing I'm talking about there is the Manheim wholesale index. And again, an update just came out this week on that. And I believe Manheim's estimate now is that used car prices will end 2023 below 2022 levels. But importantly, that's just one element of our loss costs, right? So wholesale car prices impact, retail car prices, which impact our total loss settlement values, which is a portion of our loss costs. I think one of the reasons you continue to see double-digit pressure on severity is continued elevation in repair costs, labor materials, et cetera.

我認為我在準備好的發言中評論的另一件事是我們看到了一些緩和的跡象。我在這裡談論的主要內容是曼海姆批髮指數。本周剛剛發布了相關更新。我相信曼海姆現在的估計是，到 2023 年，二手車價格將低於 2022 年的水平。但重要的是，這只是我們損失成本的一個因素，對吧？因此，批發汽車價格會影響零售汽車價格，從而影響我們的總損失結算價值，這是我們損失成本的一部分。我認為，嚴重程度繼續面臨兩位數壓力的原因之一是維修成本、勞動力材料等持續上漲。

And then again, we've talked about just broad-based severity pressure. I think what we are seeing is some of the potential good news that we're starting to see in the physical damage coverages is being offset a little bit by this shift in mix to more claims with bodily injury and property damage. And so on a mix -- that mix impact impacts those loss costs as well. But again, the short answer is we're still seeing low double-digit trends in auto severity, and we hadn't anticipated that they would last this long.

再說一遍，我們剛剛討論了廣泛的嚴重性壓力。我認為我們所看到的是一些潛在的好消息，我們開始在物理損失保險中看到的一些潛在的好消息正在被更多的人身傷害和財產損失索賠組合的轉變所抵消。等等，這種混合影響也會影響這些損失成本。但簡單來說，我們仍然看到汽車嚴重程度呈兩位數的低趨勢，而且我們沒有預料到它們會持續這麼長時間。

Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. A broader question, when we look at, I guess, whether it's possibly changing weather patterns or the mix shift within BI slightly towards property or just inflation pushing more weather losses above the cat threshold. How do you think about sort of the magnitude of coming years, catastrophe load compared to where you've been recently.

好的。完美的。這很有幫助。一個更廣泛的問題是，當我們考慮時，我想，這是否可能改變天氣模式，或者BI內部的混合變化稍微向房地產傾斜，或者僅僅是通貨膨脹將更多的天氣損失推到了貓的閾值之上。與您最近的情況相比，您如何看待未來幾年災難負荷的嚴重程度？

I'm not sure we're quite ready to talk about that or to certainly give an outlook for that. Obviously, as we start to put our views together for 2024 and beyond, we'll think about the experience that we've had this year and in recent years and other factors, whether that's changes in exposure in our book or other things, and we'll come up with a view that we hope will be sort of thoughtful and appropriate.

我不確定我們是否已經準備好談論這個問題，或者是否已經準備好對此做出展望。顯然，當我們開始總結對 2024 年及以後的看法時，我們會考慮今年和近年來的經驗以及其他因素，無論是我們書中曝光度的變化還是其他事情，我們會提出一個我們希望經過深思熟慮和適當的觀點。

We have time for one more question. Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui of Barclays.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的特雷西·本吉吉。

My focus these days is on latent liabilities and I appreciate your legal perspective given your background, Alan, and I'm not sure if A.J. is on the call or not. The last quarter, you indulged me by talking about this. And this quarter, I'm wondering if you can indulge me again and talk about PFAS. Sorry, in advance my question is quite meaty. Is PFAS a chemical explicitly excluded from GL like included in a pollution exclusion? And for pre-1986 exposure, does the statute of limitations apply?

這些天我的重點是潛在的責任，考慮到你的背景，我很欣賞你的法律觀點，艾倫，我不確定 A.J.是否正在通話。上個季度，你通過談論這個來縱容我。這個季度，我想知道您是否可以再次縱容我並談論 PFAS。抱歉，提前我的問題很豐富。 PFAS 是否是一種明確排除在 GL 之外的化學物質，就像包含在污染排除中一樣？對於 1986 年之前的暴露，訴訟時效是否適用？

Tracy, it's hard to answer a question like that without a claim and a policy. So I'm going to avoid that. And we're happy to take this offline with you and talk a little bit more about it if we can do that consistent with Reg FD.

特雷西，如果沒有索賠和保單，很難回答這樣的問題。所以我要避免這種情況。如果我們能夠按照 Reg FD 做到這一點，我們很高興與您離線討論並更多地討論它。

About PFAS, what I would say about that is this issue has now been around for a while. What we know about it is reflected in our reserves. And I'm not sure there's a lot more to say about it at this point.

關於 PFAS，我想說的是這個問題已經存在了一段時間了。我們對此的了解反映在我們的儲備中。我不確定現在還有什麼可說的。

Okay. So you said reflecting reserves. So the adverse development you took in the quarter didn't reflect an update to PFAS.

好的。所以你說反映儲備。因此，本季度的不利發展並未反映出 PFAS 的更新。

Didn't say that, Tracy, but we're not going to really go into the drivers. We gave you the big drivers of PYD. We're not going to go into specific coverage issues in PYD.

特雷西，我沒這麼說，但我們不會真正深入探討驅動程序。我們為您提供了 PYD 的主要驅動力。我們不會討論 PYD 中的具體覆蓋問題。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein.

目前沒有其他問題。我想把電話轉給阿貝·戈爾茨坦女士。

Thank you very much. We appreciate everyone's time. And as always, if there's any follow-up, please feel free to reach out directly. Thank you.

非常感謝。我們感謝每個人的時間。一如既往，如果有任何後續行動，請隨時直接聯繫。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。