旅行家集團 (TRV) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the third-quarter results teleconference for Travelers. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on October 16, 2025.

女士們、先生們，早安。歡迎參加旅行者保險公司第三季業績電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次會議將於 2025 年 10 月 16 日錄製。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁艾比‧戈德斯坦女士。戈爾茨坦女士，你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our third-quarter 2025 results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

謝謝。早安，歡迎收聽 Travelers 對 2025 年第三季業績的討論。今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務補充文件和網路直播簡報。所有這些資料都可以在我們的網站 travels.com 的「投資者」欄位下找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, CFO; and our three segment presidents: Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance, Jeff Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance. They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take questions.

今天發言的有董事長兼執行長 Alan Schnitzer；財務長 Dan Frey；以及我們的三個部門總裁：商業保險總裁 Greg Toczydlowski、債券和特殊保險總裁 Jeff Klenk 和個人保險總裁 Michael Klein。他們將討論我們公司的財務表現和當前的市場環境。他們將參考網路直播簡報進行發言，之後我們將回答問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance.

在將電話交給艾倫之前，我想提請大家注意網路直播示範結尾處的說明文字。我們今天的報告包含前瞻性陳述。公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性聲明都涉及風險和不確定性，並不能保證未來的績效。

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.

由於各種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些因素在我們的獲利新聞稿以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 文件中的前瞻性聲明中有所描述。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in the Investors section on our website.

此外，在我們的發言或對問題的回答中，我們可能會提及一些非公認會計準則的財務指標。財務報表已包含在我們最近的獲利新聞稿、財務補充資料以及我們網站投資者關係部分提供的其他資料中。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

現在我想把電話交給艾倫‧施尼策爾。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to report excellent third-quarter results. We have core income of $1.9 billion or $8.14 per diluted share. Core return on equity for the quarter was 22.6%, bringing our core return on equity for the trailing 12 months to 18.7%. Very strong underwriting results and higher investment income drove the bottom line.

謝謝你，阿貝。各位早安，感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。我們很高興地宣布第三季業績表現出色。我們的核心收入為 19 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 8.14 美元。本季核心股本回報率為 22.6%，使過去 12 個月的核心股本回報率達到 18.7%。強勁的承保業績和更高的投資收益推動了獲利成長。

Underwriting income of $1.4 billion pretax more than doubled compared to the prior year quarter, benefiting from both the lower level of catastrophe losses and higher underlying underwriting income. The underlying result was driven by higher net earned premiums and an underlying combined ratio that improved 1.7 points to an exceptional 83.9%. Underwriting income was higher in all three segments.

稅前承保收入為 14 億美元，比去年同期增加了一倍多，這得益於巨災損失水準的降低和基礎承保收入的增加。基本績效的提升得益於淨已賺保費的增加以及基本綜合比率改善 1.7 個百分點至優異的 83.9%。三個業務板塊的核保收入均有所成長。

Our high-quality investment portfolio also continued to perform well, generating after-tax net investment income of $850 million for the quarter, up 15% driven by strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio. Our underwriting and investment results, together with our strong balance sheet, enabled us to return almost $900 million of capital to shareholders during the quarter, including $628 million of share repurchases.

我們的高品質投資組合也持續表現良好，本季稅後淨投資收益為 8.5 億美元，成長 15%，這主要得益於我們不斷增長的固定收益投資組合帶來的強勁可靠的回報。我們的承銷和投資業績，加上我們強勁的資產負債表，使我們能夠在本季度向股東返還近 9 億美元的資本，其中包括 6.28 億美元的股票回購。

At the same time, we continue to make strategic investments in our business. Even after this deployment of capital, adjusted book value per share was up 15% compared to a year ago. With strong results over the past year in a particularly light cat quarter, we have a higher-than-usual level of excess capital and liquidity. Consequently, we anticipate a higher level of share repurchases over the next couple of quarters. Dan will have more to say about that in a minute.

同時，我們將繼續對我們的業務進行策略性投資。即使在投入這筆資金之後，調整後的每股帳面價值仍比一年前增加了 15%。過去一年，在貓災特別少的季度裡，我們取得了強勁的業績，因此我們擁有比平常更高的盈餘資本和流動性。因此，我們預計未來幾季股票回購規模將會增加。丹稍後會就此發表更多看法。

Turning to the top line, we grew net written premiums to $11.5 billion in the quarter. In Business Insurance, we grew net written premiums by 3% to $5.7 billion, led by 4% growth in our domestic business. Excluding the property line, we grew domestic net written premiums in the segment by more than 6%.

從營收方面來看，本季淨保費收入成長至 115 億美元。在商業保險領域，我們的淨保費收入成長了 3%，達到 57 億美元，其中國內業務成長了 4%。剔除財產險業務，該業務領域的國內淨保費收入成長超過 6%。

The decline in premium volume in property continues to be a large account dynamic. In fact, we grew property in both middle market and small commercial. We've seen this dynamic in the large property market before, and we won't compromise our underwriting discipline. Over time, particularly as catastrophic events inevitably unfold, the value of that discipline and the cost of those who abandon it will become unmistakable.

財產險保費收入的下降仍然是大額帳戶面臨的主要問題。事實上，我們在中端市場和小型商業房地產領域都取得了成長。我們以前在大宗房地產市場也見過這種動態，我們不會降低我們的核保紀律。隨著時間的推移，特別是當災難性事件不可避免地發生時，這種紀律的價值以及放棄這種紀律的人所付出的代價將變得顯而易見。

Renewal premium and change in Business Insurance was 7.1%, driven by continued historically high RPC in our middle market and select businesses. Excluding the property line, renewal premium change in the segment was a very strong 9%, and renewal rate change was a very strong 6.7%. Greg will share additional detail by line.

商業保險續保費及變動為 7.1%，主要原因是中端市場和特定企業的 RPC 持續處於歷史高點。除財產險外，該險種的續保費變動幅度非常大，達 9%，續保費率變動幅度也非常大，達 6.7%。格雷格將逐行分享更多細節。

Retention in this segment was 85%. Given the high quality of the book, we were very pleased with that result. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, we grew net written premiums to $1.1 billion with higher renewal premium change and continued strong retention of 87% in our high-quality management liability business. Net written premiums in our market-leading surety business remains strong.

該細分市場的留存率為 85%。鑑於這本書的品質很高，我們對這個結果非常滿意。在債券和特殊保險領域，我們的淨保費收入成長至 11 億美元，這得益於更高的續保保費變化以及我們高品質管理責任險業務 87% 的持續強勁續保率。我們市場領先的擔保業務的淨保費收入依然強勁。

In Personal Insurance, net written premiums were $4.7 billion, with strong renewal premium change in our homeowners business. You'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results. As we head toward the end of the year, our planning for 2026 is well underway. As always, that process involves assessing the environment ahead.

在個人保險方面，淨保費收入為 47 億美元，其中房屋保險業務的續保保費變化強勁。稍後您將從 Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 那裡聽到更多關於我們業務板塊業績的消息。隨著年底臨近，我們2026年的規劃工作正在順利進行中。與以往一樣，這個過程包括對未來環境的評估。

There are uncertainties out there: economic, political, geopolitical, not to mention the loss environment. We are very confident that we're built and very well positioned for whatever lies ahead. We're operating from a position of considerable strength. Profitability is strong, reflecting our leading underwriting expertise and the operating leverage we've built through a sustained focus on productivity and efficiency.

目前有許多不確定因素：經濟、政治、地緣政治，更別說損失環境了。我們非常有信心，我們已經做好充分準備，迎接未來的一切挑戰。我們擁有相當強大的實力。獲利能力強勁，這反映了我們領先的承保專業知識以及我們透過持續專注於生產力和效率而建立的營運槓桿。

Our competitive advantages have never been stronger or more relevant. Strong underwriting is the flywheel that sets everything in motion. Our premium growth at attractive margins has generated strong cash flow, which enables us to make strategic investments in our business, return excess capital to shareholders and grow our investment portfolio. Since 2016, we have successfully invested $13 billion in technology, returned more than $20 billion of excess capital to our shareholders, and grow our investment portfolio by nearly 50% to more than $100 million.

我們的競爭優勢從未如此強大或如此重要。強而有力的承保是推動一切運轉的飛輪。我們以有吸引力的利潤率實現的優質成長產生了強勁的現金流，這使我們能夠對業務進行策略性投資，將多餘的資本返還給股東，並擴大我們的投資組合。自 2016 年以來，我們已成功投資 130 億美元用於技術，向股東返還了超過 200 億美元的超額資本，並將我們的投資組合增長了近 50%，達到 1 億美元以上。

Scale matters increasingly so. We have the scale to win in an environment where technology and AI will continue to segment the marketplace. We have a track record of identifying the right strategic priorities and driving value from them. You can see that in the 300 basis point reduction we've achieved in our expense ratio since 2016, even while we were significantly increasing our overall technology spend.

規模的重要性日益凸顯。我們擁有足夠的規模，能夠在技術和人工智慧不斷細分市場的環境中贏得勝利。我們擁有識別正確策略重點並從中創造價值的成功經驗。自 2016 年以來，即使我們大幅增加了整體技術支出，我們的費用率也降低了 300 個基點，這足以證明我們的努力。

Importantly, our size gives us the data to power AI, creating a virtuous cycle, better insights, better decisions, better outcomes, more resources to invest. For example, our long-time focus on organizing and curating data has given us access to more than 65 billion clean data points from decades of history across multiple business lines. We leverage that to sharpen our underwriting and shape our claims strategies.

重要的是，我們的規模為我們提供了驅動人工智慧所需的數據，從而創造了一個良性循環：更好的洞察力、更好的決策、更好的結果、更多的資源可供投資。例如，我們長期專注於組織和整理數據，這使我們能夠獲得來自多個業務領域數十年歷史的超過 650 億個乾淨數據點。我們利用這一點來改善我們的承保流程並制定我們的理賠策略。

With the vast majority of our business in North America, we hold a leading position in the largest and most stable insurance market in the world. An advantage that insulates us from much of the risk arising from the economic instability and geopolitical uncertainty around the globe. Our fortress balance sheet and exceptional cash flow provide us with the financial strength to invest consistently in the business regardless of the external conditions.

我們的絕大部分業務都在北美，我們在世界最大、最穩定的保險市場中佔據領先地位。這一優勢使我們免受全球經濟不穩定和地緣政治不確定性帶來的大部分風險的影響。我們穩健的資產負債表和充裕的現金流使我們擁有足夠的財力，無論外部環境如何，都能持續投資於業務發展。

Our financial strength also enables us to manage comfortably through large loss events like the January California wildfires. When it comes to the loss environment from weather volatility to the impact of social inflation on casualty lines, no one is better positioned. Diversification provides powerful protection. In fact, our business mix produces a consolidated loss ratio that's actually less volatile than the loss ratio of our leased volatile segment. That's the power of a balanced and diversified portfolio.

我們的財務實力也使我們能夠輕鬆應對像1月份加州山火這樣的大型損失事件。從天氣波動到社會通膨對意外險的影響等各種損失環境來看，沒有人比我們更有優勢。分散投資能提供強而有力的保障。事實上，我們的業務組合產生的綜合損失率波動性實際上低於我們租賃波動性業務部分的損失率波動性。這就是均衡多元化投資組合的力量。

Equally important is our demonstrated ability to confront the loss environment head on. We have the data, the analytics and the discipline to establish reserves and loss picks appropriately and generally ahead of the market. That matters because until you have an accurate view of the loss environment, your risk selection, underwriting and claim strategies are all operating with the wrong inputs.

同樣重要的是，我們展現了直面損失環境的能力。我們擁有數據、分析和紀律，可以適當地建立準備金和預測損失，而且通常領先市場。這很重要，因為在您對損失環境有準確的了解之前，您的風險選擇、承保和理賠策略都是在錯誤的輸入下運行的。

Since our early identification of the acceleration of social inflation in 2019, we've grown the business and delivered significantly improved margins. Getting an accurate and timely view of the loss environment isn't just about the balance sheet. It's foundational to running the business effectively.

自 2019 年我們及早發現社會通膨加速以來，我們不斷發展業務，並實現了顯著提高的利潤率。準確、及時地了解損失環境，不僅僅取決於資產負債表。這是企業高效營運的基礎。

Our internally managed investment portfolio is another source of strength. Our disciplined focus on achieving appropriate risk-adjusted returns has served us exceptionally well through various markets, especially during periods of market turmoil. More than 90% of our portfolio is in fixed income with an average credit rating of AA. We're highly selective. We don't reach for yield. We hold the vast majority of our fixed income securities to maturity, and we carefully coordinate the duration of our assets and liabilities.

我們內部管理的投資組合是另一個主要優勢來源。我們始終專注於實現適當的風險調整後收益，這在各種市場環境下都為我們帶來了非常好的收益，尤其是在市場動盪時期。我們超過90%的投資組合為固定收益產品，平均信用評等為AA。我們選股非常謹慎。我們並不追求產量。我們持有絕大多數固定收益證券直至到期，並精心協調資產和負債的久期。

The track record speaks for itself. Our default rates during the most challenging environments over the past two decades were a fraction of industry averages. This consistency comes from a world-class investment team with extraordinary tenure and a shared long-term perspective. In short, the franchise we've built, the capabilities we've developed, and our depth of expertise created advantages that are durable across operating environments.

過往業績足以說明一切。在過去二十年中，即使在最具挑戰性的環境下，我們的違約率也遠低於行業平均值。這種穩定性源自於一支世界一流的投資團隊，他們擁有非凡的資歷和共同的長期視野。簡而言之，我們建立的特許經營權、我們發展的能力以及我們深厚的專業知識，創造了在各種營運環境中都能持久存在的優勢。

Before I wrap up, I'll share that we're just back from one of the industry's premier conferences, where we have the opportunity to meet with dozens of our key agents and brokers who collectively represent a substantial amount of our business. We left as convinced as ever that our position with the independent distribution channel is an unmatched strategic advantage.

在結束之前，我想分享一下，我們剛剛參加完業內最重要的會議之一，在那裡我們有機會與數十位重要的代理商和經紀人會面，他們共同代表了我們相當大一部分的業務。我們離開時依然堅信，我們與獨立通路的合作關係是無與倫比的策略優勢。

We heard clearly that our strategic investments are resonating, and that looking ahead, we're focused on the right priorities to extend that advantage. I want to acknowledge and thank all of our distribution partners. I also want to reiterate our unwavering commitment to being an indispensable partner for them, and the undeniable choice for their customers. To sum it up, we're very well positioned and very confident about the road ahead.

我們清楚地聽到，我們的策略投資正在產生積極影響，展望未來，我們將專注於正確的優先事項，以擴大這一優勢。我要感謝我們所有的經銷合作夥伴。我還要重申，我們將堅定不移地致力於成為他們不可或缺的合作夥伴，以及他們客戶無可爭議的首選。總而言之，我們目前情況大好，對未來充滿信心。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

接下來，我很高興把電話交給丹。

Thank you, Alan. In the third quarter, we once again delivered excellent financial results on a consolidated basis and in each of our three segments. Core income for the quarter of $1.9 billion resulted in core return on equity of 22.6%, reflecting both excellent underwriting results and strong investment income.

謝謝你，艾倫。第三季度，我們在合併基礎上以及三個業務部門都再次取得了優異的財務表現。本季核心收入為 19 億美元，核心股本回報率為 22.6%，這反映了出色的承保業績和強勁的投資收益。

We generated higher levels of written premium and earned premium, while delivering excellent combined ratios on both a reported and underlying basis. At 83.9% the underlying combined ratio marked its fourth consecutive quarter below 85%. The combination of higher premiums and the excellent underlying combined ratio led to an 18% increase in after-tax underlying underwriting income, which surpassed $1 billion for the fifth consecutive quarter.

我們獲得了更高的保費收入和已賺保費，同時在報告和實際基礎上都實現了優異的綜合比率。綜合比率為 83.9%，連續第四個季度低於 85%。保費上漲和優異的綜合比率使得稅後承保收入增加了 18%，連續第五個季度超過 10 億美元。

The expense ratio for the third quarter was 28.6%, bringing the year-to-date expense ratio to 28.5%. We continue to expect an expense ratio of around 28.5% for the full-year 2025 and expect to manage to that level again in 2026. Catastrophe losses in the quarter were fairly benign at $402 million pretax consisting mainly of tornado hail events in the Central United States.

第三季費用率為 28.6%，年初至今費用率為 28.5%。我們繼續預計 2025 年全年費用率約為 28.5%，並預計 2026 年將再次達到該水準。本季災害損失相對較小，稅前損失為 4.02 億美元，主要由美國中部地區的龍捲風冰雹災害造成。

Turning to prior year reserve development. We had total net favorable development of $22 million pretax. In Business Insurance, the annual asbestos review resulted in a charge of $277 million. Excluding asbestos, Business Insurance had net favorable PYD of $152 million driven by continued favorability in workers' comp. In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD was $43 million pretax with favorability in Fidelity and Surety. Personal Insurance had net favorable PYD of $104 million pretax driven by favorability in auto.

回顧上一年度的儲備金發展。我們稅前淨有利發展總額為 2,200 萬美元。在商業保險領域，年度石棉審查導致支出 2.77 億美元。除石棉外，商業保險的淨收益為 1.52 億美元，主要得益於工傷賠償的持續利多。在債券和特殊險種中，淨有利 PYD 為稅前 4,300 萬美元，其中 Fidelity 和 Surety 業務有利。個人保險業務上年同期淨收益為1.04億美元（稅前），主要得益於汽車保險業務的利多。

After-tax net investment income of $850 million increased by 15% from the prior year quarter. Fixed maturity NII was again the driver of the increase, reflecting both the benefit of higher invested assets and higher average yields. Returns in the non-fixed income portfolio were also up from the prior year quarter. During the quarter, we grew our investment portfolio by approximately $4 billion.

稅後淨投資收益為 8.5 億美元，比上年同期成長 15%。固定期限淨利息收入再次成為成長的驅動力，這不僅反映了投資資產增加的好處，也反映了平均收益率提高帶來的好處。非固定收益投資組合的報酬率也比去年同期有所成長。本季度，我們的投資組合規模增加了約 40 億美元。

Our outlook for fixed income NII, including earnings from short-term securities, has increased from the outlook we provided a quarter ago, and we now expect approximately $810 million after tax in the fourth quarter. For 2026, we expect more than $3.3 billion, with quarterly figures starting at around $810 million in Q1 and growing to around $885 million in Q4. New money rates as of September 30 are roughly 70 to 75 basis points above the yield embedded in the portfolio.

我們對固定收益淨利息收入（包括短期證券收益）的預期較上一季有所提高，目前預計第四季度稅後淨利息收入約為 8.1 億美元。預計到 2026 年，營收將超過 33 億美元，季度營收從第一季的約 8.1 億美元開始，到第四季將成長到約 8.85 億美元。截至 9 月 30 日，新增資金利率比投資組合中嵌入的收益率高出約 70 至 75 個基點。

Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter were a new record at $4.2 billion, and we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $2.8 billion. Interest rates decreased during the quarter, and as a result, our net unrealized investment loss decreased from $3 billion after tax at June 30 to $2 billion after tax at September 30. Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $150.55 at quarter end, up 8% from year-end and up 15% from a year ago. Also of note for Q3, we issued $1.25 billion of debt back in July with $500 million of 10-year notes and $750 million of 30-year notes.

轉向資本管理。本季經營現金流創歷史新高，達 42 億美元，季末控股公司流動資金約 28 億美元。本季利率下降，因此，我們的稅後未實現淨投資損失從 6 月 30 日的 30 億美元減少到 9 月 30 日的 20 億美元。調整後的每股帳面價值（不包括未實現的投資淨收益和損失）在季度末為 150.55 美元，比年末增長 8%，比去年同期增長 15%。值得一提的是，第三季我們在7月發行了12.5億美元的債務，其中包括5億美元的10年票據和7.5億美元的30年期票據。

This was simply ordinary course capital management, maintaining a debt-to-capital ratio in our target range as we continue to grow the business. Sticking with the theme of capital management, we returned $878 million of our capital to shareholders this quarter, comprising share repurchases of $628 million and dividends of $250 million.

這只是正常的資本管理流程，即在業務持續成長的同時，將債務資本比率維持在目標範圍內。繼續推進資本管理，本季我們向股東返還了 8.78 億美元的資本，其中包括 6.28 億美元的股票回購和 2.5 億美元的股息。

As Alan shared, our very strong earnings over the past year have provided us with an elevated level of capital and liquidity well in excess of what we had planned to use for investment and to support continued growth. As a result, we expect to increase the level of share repurchases in the fourth quarter to roughly $1.3 billion.

正如艾倫所說，過去一年我們強勁的利潤為我們提供了遠超我們原計劃用於投資和支持持續增長的資本和流動性。因此，我們預計第四季股票回購規模將增加至約 13 億美元。

Also keep in mind that we previously shared our plan to deploy about $700 million from the sale of our Canadian operations expected to close in early 2026 for additional share repurchases as well. So if we look across the three-quarter period from Q3 2025 through Q1 2026, our repurchases in Q3, combined with our current outlook for the next two quarters, has us repurchasing a total of somewhere around $3.5 billion worth of our stock.

另外，請記住，我們之前曾分享過我們的計劃，即利用預計於 2026 年初完成的加拿大業務出售所得的約 7 億美元資金，進行額外的股票回購。因此，如果我們縱觀 2025 年第三季至 2026 年第一季這三個季度，我們在第三季的回購，加上我們對未來兩季的當前展望，意味著我們將回購總計約 35 億美元的股票。

Using the average share price over the past 30 days for purchases during the next two quarters, that would result in a reduction of our outstanding share count of about 5% in the nine-month period. Of course, the actual amount and timing of repurchases will depend on a number of factors, including the timing of the closing of the transaction in Canada, actual quarterly earnings and other factors we disclosed in our SEC filings.

如果使用過去 30 天的平均股價作為未來兩季的購買價格，那麼在九個月期間，我們的流通股數量將減少約 5%。當然，實際回購的數量和時間將取決於許多因素，包括加拿大交易的完成時間、實際季度收益以及我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中披露的其他因素。

Recapping our results. Q3 was another quarter of excellent underwriting profitability on both an underlying and as-reported basis and another quarter of rising net investment income. These strong fundamentals delivered core return on equity of 22.6% for the quarter and 18.7% on a trailing 12-month basis and position us very well to continue delivering strong results in the future.

總結我們的結果。第三季承保獲利能力依然出色，無論是以實際基礎或以報告基礎計算，淨投資收益也再次成長。這些強勁的基本面使本季核心股本回報率達到 22.6%，過去 12 個月的核心股本回報率達到 18.7%，並為我們未來繼續取得強勁業績奠定了非常有利的地位。

And now for a discussion of results in Business Insurance, I'll turn the call over to Greg.

現在，為了討論商業保險的業績，我將把電話交給格雷格。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance had a very strong quarter, delivering a record third-quarter segment income of $907 million and an all-in combined ratio of 92.9%. The quarter reflected relatively benign catastrophes and the continued strong contribution from our exceptional underlying underwriting results.

謝謝你，丹。商業保險業務本季表現非常強勁，第三季業務營收創歷史新高，達 9.07 億美元，綜合比率為 92.9%。本季災害相對較少，且我們卓越的承保業績持續強勁成長。

This quarter's underlying combined ratio of 88.3% marked the 12th consecutive quarter where we've produced an underlying combined ratio below 90%. We're pleased that our ongoing strategic investments have contributed to this sustained level of profitability.

本季綜合比率為 88.3%，這是我們連續第 12 季綜合比率低於 90%。我們很高興看到，我們持續的策略投資為維持這種持續的獲利水準做出了貢獻。

In particular, through meaningful advancements in data and analytics, we continue to advance our underwriting tools. One specific highlight is the development and utilization of sophisticated models that derive risk characteristics, refine technical pricing, and summarize historical and modeled loss experience, all of which is provided to our underwriters at the point of sale.

特別是，透過數據和分析方面的重大進步，我們不斷改進核保工具。其中一個亮點是開發和利用複雜的模型來推導風險特徵、改進技術定價並總結歷史和模型損失經驗，所有這些都在銷售時提供給我們的承保人。

Moving to the top line. Our net written premiums increased to an all-time third quarter high of $5.7 billion. We grew our leading middle market and select businesses by 7% and 4%, respectively. These two markets make up 70% of the net written premiums in business insurance. We saw a decline in net written premiums in National Property and other, which, as you heard from Alan, reflects our disciplined execution in terms of risk selection, pricing and terms and conditions.

移至頂層。我們的淨保費收入增至第三季歷史新高，達到 57 億美元。我們領先的中階市場和精選業務分別成長了 7% 和 4%。這兩個市場佔商業保險淨保費收入的 70%。我們看到國家財產險和其他險種的淨保費收入下降，正如艾倫所說，這反映了我們在風險選擇、定價和條款與條件方面的嚴格執行。

As for production across the segment, pricing remained attractive with renewal premium change just over 7%. Renewal premium change remained strong in select and middle market. From a line of business perspective, renewal premium change was positive in all lines; double digits in umbrella, CMP, and auto; and up from the second quarter or stable in all lines other than property.

就整個細分市場的產量而言，定價依然具有吸引力，續保保費變化略高於 7%。精選市場和中階市場的續保保費變化依然強勁。從業務線角度來看，所有險種的續保保費變化均為正值；傘險、CMP 和汽車險的續保保費變化達到兩位數；除財產險外，所有險種的續保保費變化均較第二季度有所增長或保持穩定。

As you heard from Alan, excluding the property line, renewal premium change in the segment was 9%. Retention remained excellent at 85%, and new business of $673 million was about flat to a very strong prior year level. We're very pleased with these production results and particularly our field execution of our proven segmentation strategy. Across the book, pricing and retention results this quarter reflect excellent execution, aligning price, terms and conditions with environmental trends for each line.

正如你從艾倫那裡聽到的，不包括財產險，該險種的續保保費變化為 9%。客戶留存率維持在 85% 的優異水平，新業務額為 6.73 億美元，與上年同期強勁的水平基本持平。我們對這些生產成果非常滿意，尤其對我們行之有效的細分策略的現場執行情況非常滿意。本季度，整本圖書的定價和續約結果都反映了出色的執行力，使每條產品線的價格、條款和條件與環境趨勢保持一致。

As for the individual businesses, in Select, renewal premium change of 10.8% was about flat with the second quarter. Retention ticked up as expected as we near completion of our targeted CMP risk-return optimization efforts. And lastly, for Select, we generated new business of $134 million, up 3% over the prior year.

至於個別企業，Select 的續保保費變動為 10.8%，與第二季基本持平。隨著我們目標明確的 CMP 風險回報優化工作接近完成，客戶留存率如預期般上升。最後，Select 業務新增收入 1.34 億美元，比上年成長 3%。

As we've mentioned previously, we've made meaningful strategic investments in this market in both product and user experience. Our new BOP and auto products have been well received in the market. And we're pleased that the industry-leading segmentation contained in both products is contributing to profitable growth. We're also very pleased with the success of Travis, our digital experience platform for our distribution partners.

正如我們之前提到的，我們已經在這個市場的產品和用戶體驗方面進行了有意義的策略性投資。我們的新型防傾桿和汽車產品在市場上反應良好。我們很高興看到這兩款產品中業界領先的細分市場為獲利成長做出了貢獻。我們對 Travis 的成功也感到非常滿意，Travis 是我們為分銷合作夥伴提供的數位體驗平台。

As we continue our strategic rollout, Travis is already producing over 1 million transactions annually. In our core middle market business, renewal premium change of 8.3% was also about flat sequentially from the second quarter. Price increases remain broad-based as we achieved higher prices on more than three quarters of our middle market accounts. And at the same time, the granular execution was excellent with meaningful spread from our best performing accounts to our lower-performing accounts.

隨著我們策略部署的不斷推進，Travis 每年已完成超過 100 萬筆交易。在我們核心的中階市場業務中，續保費變動為 8.3%，與第二季相比也基本持平。價格上漲依然普遍，我們在超過四分之三的中端市場客戶中實現了價格上漲。同時，精細化的執行也非常出色，從表現最佳的帳戶到表現較差的帳戶，都實現了有意義的覆蓋。

We're pleased that retention of 88% remained exceptional given the level of price increases we achieved. And finally, new business of $391 million was our highest ever third-quarter result and up 7% over the prior year. We're pleased with the new business [risk selecting] and strength of pricing and overall with the combination of strong returns and customer growth in middle market.

考慮到我們實現的價格上漲幅度，88% 的客戶留存率仍然非常出色，我們對此感到欣慰。最後，新業務額達到 3.91 億美元，創下我們第三季業績新高，比上年同期成長 7%。我們對新的業務（風險選擇）和定價策略感到滿意，總體而言，我們對中端市場強勁的回報和客戶成長的組合感到滿意。

On a strategic note for Middle Market, we continue to enhance our industry-leading underwriting workstation, with models that assess new business opportunities for risk characteristics with the propensity to produce the highest level of lifetime profitability. This information helps our field organization focus on the highest priority opportunities, resulting in a greater likelihood of success in winning more accounts that contribute to strong margins.

從策略角度來看，針對中端市場，我們將繼續改進我們行業領先的核保工作站，該工作站的模型可以評估新的業務機會的風險特徵，從而實現最高的終身盈利能力。這些資訊有助於我們的現場團隊專注於優先順序最高的機會，更有可能贏得更多客戶，帶來強勁的利潤。

To sum up, Business Insurance had another terrific quarter. We're pleased with our execution in driving strong financial and production results while continuing to invest in the business for long-term profitable growth.

總而言之，商業保險又迎來了一個非常棒的季度。我們對自身在推動強勁的財務和生產業績方面的執行力感到滿意，同時我們將繼續投資於業務，以實現長期盈利增長。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

接下來，我會把電話交給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty delivered very strong third-quarter results. We generated segment income of $250 million and an outstanding combined ratio of 81.6%, nearly 1 point better than the prior year quarter. The strong underlying combined ratio of 85.8% drove very attractive returns in the segment.

謝謝你，格雷格。Bond & Specialty 第三季業績表現非常強勁。我們實現了 2.5 億美元的部門收入，綜合比率為 81.6%，比去年同期改善了近 1 個百分點。85.8% 的強勁綜合比率推動了該板塊極具吸引力的回報。

Turning to the top line. We grew net written premiums in the quarter to $1.1 billion. In our high-quality domestic management liability business, renewal premium change improved to 3.7% while retention remained strong at 87%. These results reflect our intentional and segmented initiatives to improve pricing in certain lines with a focus on employment practices liability, cyber, and public company D&O.

轉到第一行。本季淨保費收入成長至 11 億美元。在我們高品質的國內管理責任險業務中，續保費變動改善至 3.7%，而續保率維持強勁，達到 87%。這些結果反映了我們有意採取的、分階段的舉措，旨在改善某些險種的定價，重點關注僱傭行為責任險、網路安全險和上市公司董事及高階主管責任險。

We're pleased with the strong underlying pricing segmentation achieved by our outstanding field organization on both renewal and new business, enabled by our advanced analytics and sophisticated pricing models. New business was lower than the third quarter of 2024 as we expected as Corvus production was reflected as new business in the prior year quarter, and is now mostly reflected as renewal premiums. Comparisons to prior year new business levels will be similarly impacted for the remainder of the year.

我們對憑藉先進的分析和複雜的定價模型，我們優秀的現場團隊在續約和新業務方面取得的強勁的基礎定價細分成果感到滿意。正如我們預期的那樣，2024 年第三季的新業務量低於預期，因為 Corvus 的生產在上一季被計入新業務，而現在大部分被計入續保保費。今年剩餘時間裡，與去年同期相比的新業務量也將受到類似影響。

Outside of the Corvus impact, we're pleased with early returns on multiple tech and operational investments we've made to drive account growth. For example, in our private and nonprofit business, we're leveraging predictive analytics and AI to enhance our customer segmentation and sales effectiveness. We're pleased that these initiatives drove a 40% increase in new lines of business sold to existing customers as compared to the prior year quarter.

除了 Corvus 的影響之外，我們對為推動客戶成長而進行的多項技術和營運投資的早期回報感到滿意。例如，在我們的私人和非營利業務中，我們正在利用預測分析和人工智慧來增強客戶細分和銷售效率。我們很高興這些措施促使向現有客戶銷售的新業務線比去年同期成長了 40%。

Turning to our market-leading Surety business. where production can be lumpy based on the timing of bonded construction projects. Net written premiums remained strong relative to the record high quarter in the prior year. This reflects our customers' continued confidence in our industry-leading Surety expertise and value-added service offerings as well as benefits from digital investments we've made to enhance distribution experiences in our small commercial Surety business.

接下來談談我們市場領先的擔保業務。該業務的產量可能會因擔保建設項目的時間表而出現波動。與上年同期創紀錄的高點相比，淨保費收入依然保持強勁。這反映了我們的客戶對我們行業領先的擔保專業知識和增值服務產品的持續信心，以及我們為提升小型商業擔保業務的分銷體驗而進行的數位化投資所帶來的益處。

So we're pleased to have once again delivered strong results this quarter, driven by our continued underwriting and risk management diligence, excellent execution by our field organization and the benefits of our market-leading competitive advantages.

因此，我們很高興本季再次取得了強勁的業績，這得益於我們持續的核保和風險管理盡職調查、我們現場組織的出色執行以及我們市場領先的競爭優勢。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.

接下來，我將把電話交給麥克。

Thanks, Jeff. Good morning, everyone. In Personal Insurance, we delivered third-quarter segment income of $807 million, an excellent result that reflects the continued impact of our disciplined approach to selecting, pricing and managing risk. The combined ratio of 81.3% improved 11 points relative to the prior year quarter, driven primarily by lower catastrophe losses and a lower underlying combined ratio.

謝謝你，傑夫。各位早安。在個人保險領域，我們在第三季度實現了 8.07 億美元的業務收入，這是一個非常好的結果，反映了我們嚴謹的風險選擇、定價和管理方法的持續影響。綜合比率為 81.3%，較上年同期改善 11 個百分點，主要原因是巨災損失減少和基礎綜合比率降低。

The underlying combined ratio of 77.7% was 5 points better compared to the prior year quarter driven by continued improvement in both homeowners and other and auto. Net written premiums of $4.7 billion in the third quarter reflect our continued focus on improving profitability in homeowners while seeking growth in auto as we execute our strategy to deliver appropriate risk-adjusted returns across the portfolio.

綜合比率為 77.7%，比去年同期改善 5 個百分點，這主要得益於房屋所有者和其他以及汽車保險的持續改善。第三季淨保費收入達 47 億美元，反映出我們持續專注於提高房屋保險的獲利能力，同時尋求汽車保險的成長，以執行我們的策略，為整個投資組合提供適當的風險調整後收益。

The ceded premium impact of the enhanced personal insurance excess of loss reinsurance program we announced last quarter reduced net written premium growth in the quarter by 1 point as the full years’ worth of ceded premium was booked in the third quarter.

我們上個季度宣布的增強型個人保險超額損失再保險計劃的分出保費影響，使本季度淨保費收入增長減少了 1 個百分點，因為全年的分出保費在第三季度計入。

In auto, the third quarter combined ratio was very strong at 84.9%, reflecting lower catastrophe losses, a strong underlying combined ratio, and favorable net prior year development. The underlying combined ratio of 88.3% improved by 2.9 points compared to the prior year quarter.

汽車產業方面，第三季綜合比率非常強勁，為 84.9%，反映出巨災損失減少、基礎綜合比率強勁以及去年同期淨成長良好。基礎綜合比率為 88.3%，較上年同期改善 2.9 個百分點。

The improvement was driven by favorable loss experience in bodily injury and, to a lesser extent, vehicle coverages. Similar to last year's third-quarter results, this quarter's underlying combined ratio included a 2-point benefit related to the re-estimation of prior quarters in the current year.

這項改善主要得益於人身傷害方面的有利損失經驗，其次是車輛保險方面的有利損失經驗。與去年第三季的業績類似，本季的基礎綜合比率包含了與本年度前幾季重新估算相關的 2 個百分點的收益。

The year-to-date underlying combined ratio was also 88.3%, reflecting sustained profitability in an auto book that is larger than it was five years ago, both in terms of premium dollars and policy count. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, it's important to remember that the fourth-quarter auto underlying loss ratio has historically been 6 to 7 points above the average for the first three quarters because of winter weather and holiday driving.

今年迄今的綜合比率也為 88.3%，反映出汽車業務持續盈利，無論從保費金額還是保單數量來看，汽車業務都比五年前更大。展望 2025 年第四季度，需要記住的是，由於冬季天氣和假日出行，第四季度汽車保險基本損失率歷來比前三個季度的平均水平高出 6 到 7 個百分點。

In Homeowners and Other, the third-quarter combined ratio of 78% improved by 13.5 points compared to the prior year quarter, primarily because of lower catastrophe losses and improvement in the underlying combined ratio. Net prior year development was favorable, but lower compared to the prior year. The underlying combined ratio of 68% improved by almost 6.5 points compared to the prior year quarter.

在房主和其他方面，第三季綜合比率為 78%，比去年同期改善了 13.5 個百分點，這主要是由於災害損失減少和基礎綜合比率改善所致。上年淨發展狀況良好，但低於上年同期水準。基礎綜合比率為 68%，較上年同期改善近 6.5 個百分點。

The year-over-year favorability in homeowners was primarily related to the benefit of earned pricing as well as favorable non-catastrophe weather. Overall, these outstanding results reflect favorable weather conditions throughout the third quarter along with our actions to manage exposures in high catastrophe risk geographies to help optimize risk and reward.

房主們對房價的年比好感主要與房價上漲帶來的收益以及有利的非災難性天氣有關。總體而言，這些優異的業績反映了第三季有利的天氣條件，以及我們為管理高災害風險地區的風險敞口而採取的行動，從而幫助優化風險和回報。

Turning to production. We're making progress in positioning our diversified portfolio to deliver long-term profitable growth. While our production results don't quite show it yet, we're confident that the actions we're taking will build momentum towards this objective. In domestic auto, retention of 82% remained consistent with recent quarters.

進入生產階段。我們在調整多元化投資組合以實現長期獲利成長方面取得了進展。雖然我們的生產成果尚未完全體現這一點，但我們相信，我們正在採取的行動將為實現這一目標積蓄力量。國內汽車市場，客戶留存率維持在 82%，與最近幾季持平。

Renewal premium change of 3.9% continued to moderate and will continue to decline in the fourth quarter, reflective of improved profitability and our focus on generating growth. Auto new business premium was up year-over-year for the fourth consecutive quarter as new business momentum continued in states less impacted by our property actions.

續保費變動幅度為 3.9%，成長持續放緩，並將於第四季度繼續下降，這反映了獲利能力的提高以及我們對實現成長的重視。由於受我們財產保險政策影響較小的州的新業務成長勢頭持續，汽車新業務保費連續第四個季度同比增長。

In Homeowners and Other, retention of 84% remained relatively consistent with recent quarters. Renewal premium change remained strong at 18% as we continue to align replacement costs with insured values. We expect RPC to remain elevated in the fourth quarter and then drop into single digits beginning in early 2026 as values will have largely aligned with replacement costs.

在房主和其他群體中，84% 的客戶留存率與最近幾季相比保持相對穩定。由於我們持續使重置成本與保險價值保持一致，續保保費變動依然強勁，達到 18%。我們預計第四季度 RPC 將保持高位，然後從 2026 年初開始降至個位數，因為價值將基本與重置成本保持一致。

We continued to execute actions to reduce exposure and manage volatility in high-risk catastrophe geographies in the quarter, causing further declines in property new business premium policies in force. Most of our property actions will be completed by the end of the year, at which point the downward pressure on both property and auto growth should begin to moderate. As we conclude this year and head into 2026, we're focused on building momentum toward generating profitable growth.

本季度，我們繼續採取措施降低高風險災害地區的風險敞口並控制波動性，導致有效財產新業務保費保單進一步下降。我們的大部分房地產交易將在年底前完成，屆時房地產和汽車行業的成長下行壓力應該會開始緩解。在2026年即將結束之際，我們將專注於積蓄力量，實現獲利成長。

To that end, we have a range of actions currently or soon to be in market, including the following: adjusting pricing, appetite, terms and conditions to better reflect improved profitability in both auto and home; removing temporary binding restrictions and winding down some of our property non-renewal actions in certain geographies; appointing new agents and partnering with existing agents to consolidate books of business; continuing to modernize our specialty products and platforms; and investing in artificial intelligence and digitization to deliver better experiences for our agents and customers.

為此，我們目前或即將推出一系列市場行動，包括：調整定價、市場接受度、條款和條件，以更好地反映汽車和房屋業務盈利能力的提高；取消臨時約束性限制，並在某些地區逐步停止部分財產不續保行動；任命新的代理商並與現有代理商合作，以整合業務；繼續推進我們的專業產品和投資平台的現代化；以及

These messages resonate as we share them in the marketplace, reinforcing our commitment to being the undeniable choice for consumers and an indispensable partner for our agents. To sum up, we delivered terrific segment income as our team continued to invest in capabilities and deliver value to customers and agents. These results position us well to build on a long track record of profitably growing our business over time.

當我們在市場上分享這些資訊時，它們引起了共鳴，強化了我們致力於成為消費者的首選和代理商不可或缺的合作夥伴的承諾。總而言之，我們實現了出色的業務收入，因為我們的團隊不斷投資於自身能力建設，並為客戶和代理商創造價值。這些成果使我們能夠憑藉長期以來持續獲利成長的業務模式，再創佳績。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

現在我把電話轉回給艾比。

Thanks, Michael. And with that, we're ready to open up for Q&A.

謝謝你，麥可。接下來，我們將進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

（操作說明）Gregory Peters，Raymond James。

You're producing great bottom-line results. It's kind of surprising the stock is down as much as it is on the open. I think probably a reflection of the top line. And I know you spoke in detail about the different headwinds that you're facing, whether it's in business insurance, the property, Corvus and Biomet specialty or the underwriting actions in Personal Insurance that have affected your top line. When you go beyond the balance of this year and you start thinking at '26, '27, what does the Travelers business model look like in terms of top-line growth on a consolidated basis? And how are you thinking about that?

你們的業績非常出色。令人有些意外的是，這支股票開盤後跌幅如此之大。我認為這可能反映了整體業績。我知道您詳細談到了您面臨的各種不利因素，無論是商業保險、財產保險、Corvus 和 Biomet 專業保險，還是影響您收入的個人保險承保行動。如果把目光放長遠，展望 2026 年、2027 年，從合併後的營收成長來看，Travelers 的商業模式會是什麼樣子？你對此有何看法？

Hey, good morning, Greg. It's Alan. Thanks for the question. So we're not going to give out like on the top line, as you can imagine. But clearly, we understand that in order to meet our objective of delivering industry-leading return on equity over time, we need to grow over time. So it's a priority for us.

嘿，早上好，格雷格。是艾倫。謝謝你的提問。所以，正如你所想，我們不會像最高層那樣大手筆投入。但很顯然，我們明白，為了實現我們長期提供領先業界的股本回報率的目標，我們需要不斷成長。所以這是我們的首要任務。

And if you look back over the last couple of years, we've been very successful with that. As you noted by segment, we've talked about what's driving the results this quarter. But I guess what I would say is we are very confident that we've got the right value proposition. We're investing in the right capabilities to make sure we're positioned to grow this business. So we feel very good about the execution in the quarter. We feel very good about what we've accomplished in recent periods, and we feel very good about the outlook.

回顧過去幾年，我們在這方面取得了巨大的成功。正如您按部門討論的那樣，我們已經討論了本季業績成長的驅動因素。但我認為，我們非常有信心，我們擁有正確的價值主張。我們正在投資於合適的能力建設，以確保我們能夠發展這項業務。因此，我們對本季的執行情況感到非常滿意。我們對近期所取得的成就感到非常滿意，對前景也感到非常滿意。

Okay. The other -- I seem to ask this like every other quarter on the technology front, but you keep bringing it up. You talked about the digital initiatives you have going on in business insurance, talked about some of the stuff going on in Personal Insurance. I think one of your peers came out earlier in the third quarter and talked about the potential of artificial intelligence to deliver human resource savings and headcount reductions over time. Maybe up to 20%.

好的。另一個問題——我似乎每隔一個季度就會問一次技術方面的問題，但你總是提起它。您談到了您在商業保險領域正在進行的數位化舉措，也談到了個人保險領域正在進行的一些事情。我認為你們的一位同行在第三季早些時候就談到了人工智慧在長期內節省人力資源和減少員工人數方面的潛力。可能高達20%。

I'm just curious if we can just go back to -- I know you've got a best use case on technology and AI, but go back to how you're thinking about this in a three- to five-year period in terms of what it might mean to your expense ratio?

我只是好奇我們能否回到——我知道你們對技術和人工智慧有最佳應用案例，但能否回到你們對未來三到五年內這項技術可能對你們的費用率產生的影響的思考？

Yes. So Greg, I'll tell you, we are very bullish on AI, and we're leaning into it. We're spending more than $1.5 billion a year on technology. A lot of that is focused on AI. We expect significant benefits from it. And I think we've got a long track record, as I said in my prepared remarks, of identifying the right strategic initiatives and then driving value from them.

是的。格雷格，我告訴你，我們非常看好人工智慧，並且正在大力發展人工智慧。我們每年在科技領域的支出超過15億美元。其中許多都集中在人工智慧領域。我們預期將從中獲得顯著收益。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，我認為我們在確定正確的策略舉措並從中創造價值方面有著良好的記錄。

We're not going to tell you what our plan is for the expense ratio beyond next year. But I'll also tell you that more than our focus is on the expense ratio, it's on creating operating leverage, and that's what gives us the flexibility to deploy those gains however we want to deploy them. And so maybe it will be efficiency, maybe there'll be productivity, but we are very bullish about the opportunity for the investments that we have underway. We're very bullish about the data we have to fuel the AI and think that it will make a big difference in the years to come.

我們不會透露明年之後的費用比率計劃。但我還要告訴你們，我們關注的重點不僅僅是費用率，而是創造經營槓桿，這讓我們能夠靈活地以我們想要的方式運用這些收益。所以，或許會提高效率，或許會提高生產力，但我們對正在進行的投資項目的機會非常樂觀。我們非常看好我們擁有的用於驅動人工智慧的數據，並認為它將在未來幾年產生重大影響。

David Motemaden, Evercore.

David Motemaden，Evercore。

I had a question. You gave the RPC and rate ex property. I was wondering -- that's a new disclosure. Wondering if you can just talk about what that was last quarter versus this quarter? And then maybe zooming in specifically in Business Insurance. What do you guys see in property pricing outside of national property this quarter?

我有個問題。您提供了 RPC 和不含房產的稅率。我很好奇——這是個新的披露資訊。我想知道您能否談談上個季度和本季的情況有何不同？然後或許可以專門聚焦在商業保險領域。各位認為本季除全國性房地產市場以外的其他房地產價格走勢如何？

Yes, Greg, do you want to take that?

是的，格雷格，你想拿嗎？

Yes, certainly. Well, on the first one, David, it is a metric that we're not going to give every quarter. We're not going to go back and give that. We offered it up this quarter just to give you some color and let you know how much property the leverage it had on the pricing for this particular quarter.

當然可以。嗯，關於第一個問題，David，我們不會每季都提供這個指標。我們不會回頭再給那個。我們本季提供這項服務，只是為了讓您更清楚地了解它在本季定價中發揮的作用。

As we've shared with you, the large property has definitely been a market where typically leads in terms of when softening may happen, and it certainly has been the case over the last couple of quarters. In the select and middle market to directly answer your question, we continue to get positive price increases there. But it's certainly -- we're stealing some deceleration, but again, certainly still seeing positive increases.

正如我們之前與您分享的，大型房地產市場通常是市場疲軟的先行者，而過去幾季的情況也確實如此。直接回答您的問題，在高端和中端市場，我們持續獲得價格上漲。但可以肯定的是——我們確實看到了一些減速，但同樣，我們仍然看到了積極的成長。

Got it. Thank you. And then maybe this is just sort of related to your answer there. But on Business Insurance premium growth by market. So it was good to see the tick up in Select year over year in national accounts. We know the story there, but I'm surprised we saw the deceleration in growth in middle market. I was hoping you could just impact that unpack that a little bit. Is that just sort of the property dynamics you just mentioned?

知道了。謝謝。也許這和你剛才的回答有點關係。但就商業保險保費成長而言，各市場狀況如何？因此，很高興看到國民經濟核算中的精選指數年增。我們都知道那裡的情況，但我對中端市場成長放緩感到驚訝。我希望你能稍微解釋一下這件事。這就是你剛才提到的那種房產動態嗎？

Yeah. And if you're looking at overall quarter of middle market, I think you're reading that, [Ron]. The quarter alone was up for middle market, 7% relative to year-to-date of flat.

是的。如果你關注的是整個中階市場季度的數據，我想你正在閱讀的就是這個。[羅恩]僅中端市場一個季度就實現了成長，比年初至今的持平增長了 7%。

Got it. Yeah. No, I was just looking at -- because I know 1Q had the reinsurance dynamic. So I was just comparing it to 2Q, the 10 decelerating to 7. That's what I was looking at there, but I appreciate the answer.

知道了。是的。不，我只是在看——因為我知道第一季有再保險的動態。所以我只是把它和第二季進行比較，10減慢到7。我當時也是在看這個，不過還是感謝你的解答。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

Mike Zaremski，BMO。

Great. My first question is on the loss cost trend line. I know it's not easy [painting] a broad brush, but if we look at kind of your reserve release trend line, the loss ratio trend line, you're also adding IBNR. But a lot of good things going on. Curious if your view on loss cost inflation has changed at all or directionally? I feel like you've only raised it over recent years over long periods of time. Is it flattening out? Thanks.

偉大的。我的第一個問題是關於損失成本趨勢線的。我知道要概括起來並不容易，但如果我們看一下你的準備金釋放趨勢線、損失率趨勢線，你還會加上 IBNR。但有很多好事正在發生。想知道您對損失成本通膨的看法是否有所改變，或者方向是否有所改變？我覺得你只是在最近幾年才反覆提起這件事。它正在變平嗎？謝謝。

Mike, it's Dan. So another quarter of net favorable PYD despite the asbestos charge. I don't really think you can put a trend on PYD. And really what matters for us is, in aggregate across the enterprise, is it favorable or unfavorable. And we've got now a very long track record of generally having that favorable.

麥克，我是丹。儘管受到石棉指控的影響，但PYD仍實現了另一個季度的淨收益。我覺得很難為 PYD 定型。對我們來說真正重要的是，從整個企業的角度來看，它是有利的還是不利的。而且，我們在這方面已經取得了非常長久的良好記錄。

As it relates to loss trend, we haven't explicitly commented on loss trend for a while because we think it's just too narrow a way to look at the business in terms of what's pure rate versus what's some blended number of loss trend, but it hasn't moved dramatically in recent period. Alan's talked about that in prior quarters. We do take a look at it every quarter. Some lines do move up a little bit, some lines do move down a little bit over time, but it's been pretty stable for a while now.

至於損失趨勢，我們已經有一段時間沒有明確評論損失趨勢了，因為我們認為，僅僅從純粹的比率與損失趨勢的綜合指標來看待業務的方式過於狹隘，但最近一段時間內，損失趨勢並沒有發生劇烈的變化。艾倫在前幾個季度也談到這一點。我們每季都會進行一次審查。有些線路會隨著時間推移而略微上升，有些線路會略微下降，但目前為止已經相當穩定一段時間了。

And Mike, there was nothing in the quarter that particularly surprised us when it comes to loss activity.

麥克，就虧損情況而言，本季沒有什麼特別讓我們感到意外的事情發生。

Okay. Great. And my follow-up is honing in on the home segment, maybe you need to comment on auto two since there's a lot of bundle in there. But if you look at the RPC trends, they remain very high. I'm assuming that there's terms and conditions, changes that you're incorporating in kind of those double-digit RPC increases. But the last few years haven't been great for you all in the industry.

好的。偉大的。我的後續問題是聚焦在家庭娛樂領域，或許你需要對汽車二號功能發表一些評論，因為其中有許多捆綁銷售的內容。但如果你觀察 RPC 的趨勢，你會發現它們仍然非常高。我假設其中包含一些條款和條件，以及您在兩位數 RPC 成長中納入的變更。但過去幾年對你們這些業內人士來說都不太好過。

Consensus kind of has you guys pegged at a 95% combined ratio for the foreseeable future in home. Maybe you can kind of remind us what -- do we expect RPC to eventually fall? Are those terms and condition changes going to help? Is 95% the right combined ratio that you guys are targeting given how profitable auto is? Thanks.

一般認為，在可預見的未來，你們的家庭住房綜合比例將達到 95%。或許您可以提醒我們一下—我們是否預期 RPC 最終會衰退？這些條款和條件的改變會有幫助嗎？考慮到汽車產業的利潤如此豐厚，你們設定的95%的綜合比率目標是否合理？謝謝。

Sure. Thanks, Mike. It's Michael. So just to unpack the RPC part of your question for starters, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, RPC remains elevated. And again, it's rate and exposure, right? So RPC remains elevated largely because we're raising insured limits to keep up with rising replacement costs. And my point about RPC dropping to single digits in 2026 is we'll have largely caught up in getting replacement costs in line with insured values.

當然。謝謝你，麥克。是麥可。首先，為了解釋一下你問題中的 RPC 部分，正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的，RPC 仍然處於高位。再說一遍，關鍵在於曝光率和曝光量，對吧？因此，RPC 仍然居高不下，主要是因為我們提高了保險限額以跟上不斷上漲的重置成本。我所說的 2026 年 RPC 降至個位數，是指我們將基本趕上使重置成本與保險價值相符的趨勢。

And so the change in RPC as we head into 2026 will really be those -- the premium impact from increasing Coverage A, the dwelling limits on property coming back to more normal levels. Yes, baked into RPC is also a reflection of a number of the other actions we're taking on the book, think increasing deductibles, particularly across the Midwest, think different strategies around targeted limits on how big a Coverage A we're going to write in some hail-prone geographies.

因此，到 2026 年，RPC 的變化將真正體現在以下幾個方面：增加 A 類保險的保費影響，以及房產的居住限額恢復到更正常的水平。是的，RPC 中也反映了我們正在對保險業務採取的許多其他措施，例如提高免賠額，尤其是在中西部地區，以及針對一些易受冰雹災害的地區，制定不同的策略來限制 A 類保險的承保範圍。

Other things like that are all rolled into that figure. And again, I think it's just reflective of the actions that we're taking to improve the profitability of that book. As respect to target combined ratio, we're not going to really disclose the target combined ratio by line.

其他類似因素也都包含在這個數字裡了。而且，我認為這正是反映了我們為提高該書獲利能力而採取的行動。至於目標綜合比率，我們不會逐條揭露目標綜合比率。

We are certainly encouraged by the progress we've made, particularly in improving the underlying combined ratio in property. It's down period-to-period, quarter-over-quarter for something like the last 10 or 11 quarters in a row. So that is demonstrative of the progress that we're making there. And again, continue to be pleased with our progress there.

我們的進展令人鼓舞，尤其是在改善房地產綜合比率方面。過去十個或十一個季度以來，該指標逐期和逐季均呈下降趨勢。這表明我們在那裡取得了進展。再次重申，我們對那裡的進展感到滿意。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

Meyer Shields，KBW。

I don't know if this is a question for Alan or Greg. But is there any way of disentangling how much of the property premium decline in BI is from non-renewed business as opposed to accepting lower rates because you still had adequacy?

我不知道這個問題應該問艾倫還是格雷格。但是，有沒有辦法區分 BI 的房產保費下降有多少是由於未續保業務造成的，又有多少是由於仍然有足夠的保額而接受了較低的費率造成的呢？

Yeah. Meyer, I don't think we're going to unpack that, certainly not right here right now. I don't think we're going to get into that level of detail. And honestly, we don't have that little of data at our fingertips right now.

是的。邁耶，我覺得我們不會深入探討這個問題，至少現在不會。我認為我們不會深入到那種細節層面。說實話，我們現在能掌握的數據並沒有那麼多。

Okay. Fair enough. I also want to talk a little bit -- Michael talked about, I guess, [book rolls] in personal lines. Does that involve any changes to agency commissions? Or what other tools are you using to encourage that?

好的。很公平。我也想稍微談談──麥可談到了個人保險業務中的[書籍卷]。這是否意味著代理佣金會有任何變動？或者，您還使用哪些其他工具來促進這一點？

Sure, Meyer. Thanks for the question. Yeah. So typically, and again, book rolls, consolidations in the personal line space are pretty much standard operating procedure. We had stepped away from them. The reason I mentioned it is because we had stepped away from them as we were working to improve profitability.

當然可以，邁耶。謝謝你的提問。是的。所以通常情況下，個人保險領域的帳簿滾動和合併幾乎是標準作業程序。我們已經和他們疏遠了。我之所以提到這件事，是因為我們在努力提高獲利能力的過程中，已經暫時擱置了與它們的合作。

And I think it's an important point to recognize that we're back actively engaged in the marketplace in those conversations with agents looking for situations where their book of business may be disrupted for one reason or another. It is fairly typical in a book consolidation scenario to offer enhanced commission on that book roll for the first term as that business comes over.

我認為，重要的是要認識到，我們已經重新積極參與市場，與代理商進行對話，尋找那些由於某種原因業務可能受到干擾的情況。在圖書合併的情況下，通常會在業務合併後的第一個帳期提供更高的佣金。

Tracy Benguigui, Wolfe Research.

Tracy Benguigui，Wolfe Research。

My first question is for Mike. I'm curious what you're seeing that's driving favorable loss experience in bodily injury and, to a lesser extent, vehicle coverages?

我的第一個問題是問麥克的。我很好奇您觀察到哪些因素促成了人身傷害（以及在較小程度上，車輛保險）方面有利的損失經驗？

Sure, Tracy. Thanks for the question. I mean, it really is a combination of favorable frequency in both bodily injury and physical damage losses as well as continued moderation in severity. Again, really across coverages.

當然可以，特蕾西。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，這確實是身體傷害和財產損失發生頻率有利以及嚴重程度持續適中的綜合結果。再次強調，這確實涵蓋了所有方面。

Got it. And a follow-up on Dan's comment about elevated level of capital liquidity, driven by your earnings that's well in excess of your investment needed to support growth. As you know, capital is a big focus for me. And I've really not seen so much excess capital for the entire sector. So is it fair to assume that your excess capital position surpasses the buyback targets you shared, and could we expect concurrent deployment of capital in the technology side and/or M&A?

知道了。丹提到，由於您的收益遠遠超過支持成長所需的投資，因此您的資本流動性水準很高。對此，我想補充一點。如你所知，資金是我關注的重點。而且我真的沒看過整個產業有這麼多過剩資本。那麼，是否可以合理地假設您的超額資本超過了您分享的回購目標？我們是否可以期待同時將資金投入技術方面和/或併購方面？

Yeah. Tracy, it's Dan. So I think I understand the question. So I guess I'd start by saying, look, there's no change at all to what has been now our long-standing capital management philosophy, which is we've got a business that's generating terrific margins. We generate a lot of capital. We generate more than we need just to support the growth of the business. First objective for that excess capital is going to be to find a way to deploy it and generate a return.

是的。崔西，我是丹。所以我想我理解這個問題了。所以我想先說的是，我們長期以來奉行的資本管理理念沒有任何改變，那就是我們的業務正在產生非常可觀的利潤。我們創造了大量資本。我們創造的收入遠超過業務成長所需。首要目標是找到一種方法來利用這筆多餘的資金並產生回報。

And so we'll make all the technology investments that we think we can and should make, always be open to M&A, open any opportunity to generate returns on an excess capital. Once we've exhausted all those opportunities, then it's not our capital, is to shareholders, and we're going to give it back through dividends and buybacks.

因此，我們將進行我們認為可以而且應該進行的所有技術投資，並始終對併購持開放態度，並抓住一切機會利用剩餘資本創造回報。一旦我們用盡了所有這些機會，那麼這些資本就不屬於我們了，而是屬於股東的，我們將透過分紅和股票回購的方式返還給股東。

Robert Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅伯特‧考克斯，高盛集團。

I just wanted to go back to the removal of the growth restrictions. It looks like a couple of parts of the business, CMP within Select and then also in homeowners. Can you give us a sense of how much business is being unlocked for growth here? And if easing those restrictions can result in a noticeable uplift in growth.

我只是想回到取消成長限制的話題。看起來像是業務的幾個部分，CMP 是 Select 的一部分，然後也是房主的一部分。您能否大致介紹一下，這裡釋放了多少商業成長潛力？如果放寬這些限制能夠帶來明顯的成長提升。

Hey, Robert, this is Greg. I'll start off and then Michael can talk about the PI. We've been talking about the Select mix optimization for some time now. And as we begin to finalize some of those actions, you saw a slight tick up in our retention. We're not really going to quantify what that means for overall growth, but that was the reason that we pointed out the slight tick up in retention.

嘿，羅伯特，我是格雷格。我先開始，然後麥可可以談談私家偵探的事。我們已經討論精選組合優化一段時間了。隨著我們逐步完成其中一些措施，我們的客戶留存率略有上升。我們不會量化這對整體成長意味著什麼，但這正是我們指出用戶留存率略有上升的原因。

Yeah. And Robert, Michael following up here on the personal line side. I think the important point to note in terms of the impact on growth in personal insurance as we relax those property restrictions is our goal is to leverage that property capacity to write package business.

是的。羅伯特，麥可接下來會跟進個人線路方面的情況。我認為，就我們放寬財產限制對個人保險成長的影響而言，需要注意的重要一點是，我們的目標是利用這些財產承保能力來承保綜合保險業務。

And so my suggestion, if you want to sort of dimensionalize it is just look back historically at retention and new business levels in property and in auto, you can see that retention remains depressed right now, given the actions we're taking. Again, the property actions depress retention in both lines. And you can see, particularly in property, the new business levels are pretty significantly depressed relative to what they've run historically. And so those levers, I think, would give you a way to kind of dimensionalize it.

因此，我的建議是，如果你想從維度上分析這個問題，只需回顧一下房地產和汽車行業的客戶留存率和新業務水平的歷史數據，你就會發現，鑑於我們正在採取的措施，目前的客戶留存率仍然很低。再次強調，房產交易會降低兩類人口的留存率。你可以看到，尤其是在房地產領域，新業務量與以往相比明顯下降。因此，我認為這些槓桿可以讓你以某種方式對其進行維度化。

Okay. Great. Thanks for the color there. And then I just wanted to follow up on the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio. When you think about the margin improvements during this year, are we seeing improved picks in casualty at all? Or is the improvement year-to-date largely been a shift lower in some of the shorter tail exposures?

好的。偉大的。謝謝你帶來的色彩。然後，我只是想了解一下商業保險的基本損失率。考慮到今年利潤率的提高，我們是否在意外傷害保險領域看到了更好的選擇？或者說，今年迄今的改善主要是由於一些短期投資曝險的下移所致？

Rob, it's Dan. Look, I think if you look at the improvement -- you're talking about Business Insurance specifically, right?

羅布，我是丹。你看，我覺得如果你看看改進情況——你指的是商業保險，對吧？

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah, I think the single biggest factor we'd say in terms of that sort of 50 basis point improvement on a year-to-date basis has been the continued benefit of earned price. So in the casualty lines, especially, and we've talked about this a couple of times, we're continuing to include some provision for a level of uncertainty in those lines that we think is going to serve us well in the long term as opposed to taking those [picks] down, the improvement in the loss ratio.

是的，我認為今年迄今取得 50 個基點改善的最大因素是股價持續上漲帶來的利多。因此，尤其是在意外傷害險方面，我們已經討論過幾次了，我們將繼續在這些險種中加入一些應對不確定性的準備金，我們認為從長遠來看，這將對我們有益，而不是降低賠付率。

You have other things that impact every quarter too; mix will change a little bit. But headline number -- the main driver of the improvement year over year has been the continued benefit of earned price.

每個季度還有其他一些影響因素；組合也會略有變化。但整體而言，年比改善的主要驅動因素是持續受益於已獲價格。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊莉絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

I guess I want to stick there with Business Insurance. So if we look, I guess, just specifically at the underlying loss ratio that was stable year over year into Q3, so I'm not sure if there were certain pushes and pulls that you want to point out specific to the third quarter or if maybe this quarter rate earned rate got close to trend, and that's kind of what we're seeing in the numbers.

我想我應該繼續從事商業保險的工作。所以，如果我們具體看一下基本損失率，它在第三季度與去年同期相比保持穩定，所以我不確定是否有一些特定的推拉因素需要指出，特別是針對第三季度，或者也許本季度的已賺率接近趨勢，而這正是我們從數字中看到的。

And just how do we think from here, just given slowing pricing, which I know is mostly driven by property? How do we think about just the underlying loss ratio in BI? Should we think about that starting to deteriorate as rate gets closer to trend?

那麼，鑑於物價成長放緩（我知道這主要是由房地產市場驅動的），我們接下來該如何考慮呢？我們如何看待商業智慧中的基礎損失率？我們是否應該認為，隨著利率接近趨勢值，這種情況會開始惡化？

Yeah. Good morning, Elyse. Let's just start with where the margins are in Business Insurance. I mean, they are pretty spectacular margins. And I don't think we're going to parse out that level of detail, and we're certainly not going to get into what the outlook for margins is, but I'll tell you, at these margins, we really like the margins and we really like the business that we're putting on the books at these margins.

是的。早安，伊莉絲。我們先來看看商業保險的利潤率是多少。我的意思是，這差距相當驚人。我認為我們不會深入探討這些細節，當然也不會討論利潤率的前景，但我可以告訴你，在目前的利潤率水平下，我們非常滿意，也非常滿意我們以目前的利潤率水平完成的業務。

Okay. And then I guess my second question would be, maybe shifting to personal auto. Have you guys seen any impact of tariffs at all in the quarter, whether it was September relative to July and August? And how are you guys currently thinking about a potential impact of tariffs on the margins in that business?

好的。那麼我的第二個問題可能是，或許可以考慮轉用私家車。你們有沒有在本季（9 月）看到關稅的影響，無論是相對於 7 月還是 8 月？那麼，你們目前如何看待關稅對該產業利潤率的潛在影響？

Sure, Elyse. It's Michael. Thanks for the question. I would say we haven't seen a ton of impact to date from tariffs but our results for the third quarter do include a small impact from tariffs. That said, it's well below the single-digit severity numbers that we discussed a couple of quarters ago.

當然可以，伊莉絲。是麥可。謝謝你的提問。我認為到目前為止，我們還沒有看到關稅產生太大的影響，但我們第三季的業績確實包含了關稅帶來的輕微影響。也就是說，這遠低於我們幾季前討論過的個位數嚴重程度數字。

There certainly is the potential for that impact to grow. The longer tariffs remain in effect. As you know, it's a very fluid situation. Tariff changes weekly, daily, fairly frequently. So predicting is challenging, but we are keeping a very close eye on it.

這種影響當然有可能繼續擴大。關稅持續時間較長。如你所知，情況瞬息萬變。關稅每週、每天、相當頻繁地變動。所以預測很有挑戰性，但我們會密切注意。

To your point, there are some external industry indices that show some moderate increases Others look largely unaffected. So we're going to continue to closely monitor it, but there is a little bit of a provision in the third-quarter results for tariff increases, but it's not yet at the level that we had potentially forecast.

正如您所說，一些外部行業指數顯示出溫和成長，而其他指數似乎基本上不受影響。因此我們將繼續密切關注，第三季業績中已預留了一部分用於應對關稅上漲，但尚未達到我們先前預測的水平。

And just to be clear, Michael, correct me if I'm wrong. We've got a provision in there because we expected that we might see it. We're not really seeing it in any meaningful way.

還有，邁克爾，我再確認一下，如果我說錯了，請糾正我。我們在裡面預留了一筆資金，因為我們預料到可能會遇到這種情況。我們並沒有真正看到它以任何有意義的方式出現。

Yeah, it's not significant. Again, we're seeing it on the margins. And so we booked a provision for it, but again, well below the mid-single-digit level that we had described before.

是的，這並不重要。我們再次看到這種情況出現在邊緣地帶。因此我們為此預留了資金，但同樣，遠低於我們先前描述的個位數中段水準。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅‧紐瑟姆，派珀‧桑德勒。

Yesterday, Progressive gave us a little unpleasant news about the quarter charge. Just curious if that is something that you've looked at yourself? And also curious about the accounting related to these kinds of things. I know that [quarters] not unique. There are other states that have restrictions on the profitability. I'm just curious about how you account for that as well.

昨天，Progressive 為我們帶來了一些關於季度費用的不太愉快的消息。我只是好奇你是否也研究過這個問題？我也對這類事情的會計處理方式很有興趣。我知道這（季度）並不獨特。還有一些州對獲利能力有限制。我很好奇你是如何處理這種情況的。

Sure, Paul, it's Michael. I'll start with sort of the response on the overall situation, maybe Dan can chime in on accounting. On the Florida excess profit provision, the statute isn't actually a new thing. It's sort of standard operating procedure in Florida. It's actually fairly infrequent that people have to return premiums given the statute.

當然，保羅，我是麥可。我先就整體情況談談我的看法，也許丹可以從會計方面發表一些意見。關於佛羅裡達州超額利潤條款，該法規實際上並不是一項新規定。這在佛羅裡達州算是標準作業流程。根據相關法規，人們需要退還保費的情況其實相當少見。

What I would say about our business in Florida is we're pleased with our auto business in Florida, but we don't expect to need to make a return of premium to policyholders in Florida due to excess profits for the '23 to '25 accident year period for which we would make the filing in 2026.

關於我們在佛羅裡達州的業務，我想說的是，我們對在佛羅裡達州的汽車業務感到滿意，但我們預計無需因 2023 年至 2025 年事故年度期間的超額利潤而向佛羅裡達州的保單持有人退還保費，我們將在 2026 年提交相關申報。

The only thing I would say is, given the size of our business in Florida, think of our Florida auto business, less than 10% of our PI auto business, think of the Florida PI auto business, 1.5% of Travelers overall premium. I mean, it's just not going to be a significant issue for the organization, even if we were to need to make a return of premium, which we don't anticipate.

我唯一想說的是，考慮到我們在佛羅裡達州的業務規模，想想我們在佛羅裡達州的汽車保險業務，它只占我們個人傷害汽車保險業務的不到 10%，而佛羅裡達州的個人傷害汽車保險業務只佔 Travelers 整體保費的 1.5%。我的意思是，即使我們需要退還保費（我們預計不會發生這種情況），這對公司來說也不會是一個重大問題。

Then Paul, it's Dan. With regard to the accounting, I guess I'm going to not give a definitive answer. And one of the reasons I won't give a definitive answer is if you go back to COVID when we and some of our peer companies returned premium because frequency and losses declined so rapidly, so quickly, not every company accounted for that the same way, so we had a view of how that should be accounting for. That's what we reflected in our results.

然後是保羅，是丹。至於會計方面的問題，我想我無法給出明確的答案。我不給出明確答案的原因之一是，回顧新冠疫情時期，我們和一些同行公司退還了保費，因為事故發生頻率和損失下降得如此之快，並非每家公司都以相同的方式對此進行核算，所以我們對應該如何核算有自己的看法。這正是我們在結果中體現出來的。

Other peer companies had a slightly different view of how that should be accounted for and reflected differently in their results, by which I mean some companies took that as an expense. Some companies took that as a return to premium. And as Michael said, since we've not had to deal with the Florida excess profit issue, we haven't done a real deep dive on how we think it would come to the P&L. But most importantly, I think as Michael said, if we ever had it, we wouldn't expect it to be much of an impact on our consolidated results in any event.

其他同行公司對此的看法略有不同，並在業績中以不同的方式反映出來，我的意思是，有些公司將其視為一項費用。一些公司將此視為保費的回歸。正如麥可所說，由於我們還沒有處理佛羅裡達州的超額利潤問題，所以我們還沒有真正深入研究我們認為它會對損益表產生怎樣的影響。但最重要的是，我認為正如邁克爾所說，即使我們真的遇到了這種情況，我們也預計它無論如何都不會對我們的合併業績產生太大影響。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克爾，美國銀行。

I was trying to understand a little bit about your effective retention numbers that you give in the back of the supplement about auto and home. Your retention bottomed, I guess, about three quarters ago, and it's ticked up, but you're still losing more cars or more policies than you were before. Is that a projected retention based on where you're pricing the business today? Or have you already seen retention bottom and it's improving here?

我想稍微了解一下你們在補充資料背面提供的關於汽車和家庭的有效保留率數據。我猜你們的客戶留存率在大約三個季度前觸底，之後有所回升，但你們流失的車輛或保單數量仍然比以前多。這是根據您目前的定價策略預測的客戶留存率嗎？或者，您已經看到用戶留存率觸底反彈，並且目前正在改善？

Josh, it's Dan. So retention is a way that we try to give you color relative to what's the change in net written premium. So a couple of things we know definitively. We know definitively at any point in time how many policies are enforced. We give you that number. We know definitively at any point in time how much premium made into the ledger, we give you that number.

喬希，我是丹。因此，留存率是我們嘗試向您展示淨保費變化的一種方式。所以有幾件事我們能夠確定。我們隨時都能確切地知道有多少政策正在執行。我們會把這個號碼告訴你。我們隨時都能確切地知道帳簿上記錄了多少保費，我們會把這個數字告訴您。

Production statistics like retention, renewal premium change, new business are all in the disclosure, say, they're all subject to actuarial estimate of what do we think the ultimate retention is going to be because you could start on day one of a policy and look like you'd retained all of them, but we know that there's some period of those, they're going to cancel early in the term and either go somewhere else or drop their insurance.

諸如續保率、續保保費變化、新業務等生產統計數據都在披露範圍內，例如，所有這些都取決於精算師對最終續保率的估計，因為從保單生效的第一天起，你可能看起來已經留住了所有客戶，但我們知道，在一段時間內，他們會在保單有效期早期取消放棄，要么去其他地方保單，要么去保險保單，要么去保險保單。

So it's very challenging to do, I think, what you're trying to do at a very specific level and go A plus B equals C. The production statistics are really color around what's happening with the top line. And I'm sorry, I can't give you a more helpful answer than that.

所以我覺得，要在非常具體的層面上實現你想要的目標，並得到 A 加 B 等於 C 的結果，是非常具有挑戰性的。生產統計數據其實只是對營收情況的補充說明。很抱歉，我只能給你更有幫助的答案了。

If I look back at 3Q '24 is that a more -- because now you have all that data, is that a more accurate representation of what you know to have happened over the past year?

如果我回顧 2024 年第三季度，因為現在你有了所有這些數據，這是否更能準確地反映過去一年中發生的事情？

Production statistics do get updated. So if you went back -- and true in Business Insurance, true in Personal Insurance, if you looked at historical quarters, you could almost do a triangle of what was retention as originally reported because it's an estimate. We true those up as time goes on.

生產統計數據會更新。所以，如果你回顧歷史季度——在商業保險中如此，在個人保險中也是如此——你幾乎可以畫出一個三角形，來表示最初報告的留存率，因為它只是一個估計值。隨著時間的推移，我們會對這些數據進行修正。

And can you confidently say, and I'll leave it at this, that retention has improved from where it was a year ago? Or it's still not certain?

您能否自信地說（我就說到這裡），員工留存率比一年前有所提升？或者，目前還不能確定？

I think we're pretty confident in saying that retention has improved from where it was a year ago.

我認為我們有相當的信心說，用戶留存率比一年前有所提高。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

First one I have is on commercial auto and general liability. Just noticing those are sort of the lines [with] net written premium is growing more. And I was just interested in if that's more a reflection of -- the rate is obviously different there than maybe some of the other lines where there's pressure. But is there anything about the commercial auto product launch and some of the things you're doing that are actually causing you to lean into those businesses a little more?

我的第一份文件是關於商業汽車和一般責任險的。注意到這些指標都與淨保費成長密切相關。我只是想知道這是否更多地反映了——那裡的利率顯然與其他一些存在壓力的線路不同。但是，在商用汽車產品發布以及您正在做的一些事情中，是否有一些因素促使您更加重視這些業務？

Hey, Alex, this is Greg. Just to get the second part of your question, we did roll out a new automobile product across all business insurance that includes Select and middle market that would roll up into the aggregate commercial auto numbers. So we do think that that's our most sophisticated product in auto that we brought into the marketplace.

嘿，Alex，我是Greg。為了回答您問題的第二部分，我們確實在所有商業保險領域推出了一款新的汽車產品，包括精選市場和中端市場，這些產品將計入商業汽車保險的整體數據中。所以我們認為這是我們推向市場的最先進的汽車產品。

So that helps us from a segmentation point of view. But we've been very thoughtful around our growth in commercial auto. The thrust of what you're seeing there in the premium delta really is based on renewal premium change. And that's why I gave you some of that color in my prepared comments at a product line level.

這樣一來，從市場區隔的角度來看，對我們很有幫助。但我們在商用汽車領域的成長一直非常謹慎。您在保費差額中看到的主要變化實際上是基於續保保費的變化。所以，我在事先準備好的產品線層面的評論中，也加入了一些相關的細節。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And over Personal Lines, I mean, Yeah, but you've been pretty clear on -- and that should help on the growth front. Is there anything from just a marketing spend kind of standpoint and thinking through the expense ratio we should be aware of as you think through ramping up growth?

知道了。好的。那很有幫助。至於個人保險業務，我的意思是，是的，但你已經很清楚地表明了這一點——這應該有助於業務成長。從行銷支出角度來看，在考慮如何提高成長速度以及費用比率時，我們有哪些需要注意的地方？

Sure, Alex. It's Michael. I would say that on the margins, we have increased our marketing spend in Personal Insurance largely in support of our direct-to-consumer business, but it's a very different ball game for us than marketing spend, other places. Our direct-to-consumer business is less than 10% of our overall business. So we are on the margin, increasing marketing spend there to drive more growth, but it doesn't have a dramatic impact on the overall financial results of the business.

當然可以，亞歷克斯。是麥可。我想說，從邊際上看，我們增加了個人保險領域的行銷支出，主要是為了支持我們的直接面向消費者的業務，但這與我們在其他領域的行銷支出截然不同。我們的直接面向消費者的業務佔比不到我們整體業務的10%。因此，我們正處於邊緣地帶，增加該領域的行銷支出以推動更多成長，但這不會對公司的整體財務表現產生重大影響。

Ryan Tunis, Cantor.

Ryan Tunis，坎托爾。

I just had a question, just one on Business Insurance, just on incurred losses. But I do think like in national property, we don't trend losses like we do -- or property for that matter. We don't trend losses like we do with other stuff, but there certainly are still attritional losses on that line. I guess I'm just curious if those attritional losses have run better or worse or in line with your expectations so far this year? Thanks.

我有個問題，是關於商業保險的，是關於已發生的損失。但我認為，就像在國家財產領域一樣，我們的損失趨勢與財產領域不同——或者說，與房地產領域不同。我們不按趨勢分析損失，但這條線上肯定仍然存在持續的損失。我只是好奇，今年到目前為止，這些損耗性損失的情況是比你預期的更好、更糟，還是符合你的預期？謝謝。

Hey, Ryan, it's Dan. I think the quarterly results are really strong. The weather was generally leaning towards favorable, including in Business Insurance. If you're wondering about whether it's so significant that we would say this isn't really a clean jump-off point for Business Insurance and you make some big adjustment, we would say no, sort of inside of the normal realm of variability from quarter to quarter, but leaning towards the favorable.

嘿，瑞恩，我是丹。我認為季度業績非常強勁。天氣整體上趨於有利，商業保險業也不例外。如果你想知道這是否非常重要，以至於我們認為這並非商業保險的乾淨起點，需要進行一些重大調整，我們會說不，這在某種程度上屬於季度間正常波動的範疇，但傾向於有利的一面。

And we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Abbe Goldstein for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給阿貝·戈德斯坦，請他作總結發言。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. And as always, please follow up with Investor Relations if you have any other questions. Have a good day.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。如有任何其他疑問，請隨時聯繫投資者關係部門。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。