旅行家集團 (TRV) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

早安，女士們先生們。

Welcome to the fourth quarter results teleconference for Travelers.

歡迎參加旅客第四季業績電話會議。

We ask that you hold all questions until the completion of formal remarks, at which time you will be given instructions for the question-and-answer session.

我們要求您保留所有問題，直到正式發言完成，屆時您將收到有關問答環節的指示。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on January 22, 2025.

提醒一下，本次會議的錄製時間為 2025 年 1 月 22 日。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁阿貝·戈爾茨坦女士主持。

Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

戈德斯坦女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, and welcome to Travelers discussion of our fourth quarter 2024 results.

早安，歡迎來到 Travelers 討論我們 2024 年第四季的業績。

We released our press release, financial supplement, and webcast presentation earlier this morning.

今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務補充品和網路廣播簡報。

All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

所有這些資料都可以在我們的 Travelers.com 網站的「投資者」部分找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our three segment Presidents, Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance, Jeff Klenk of Bond and Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance.

今天發言的是董事長兼執行長 Alan Schnitzer；丹‧弗雷，財務長；以及我們的三個部門總裁：商業保險部門的 Greg Toczydlowski、債券和專業保險部門的 Jeff Klenk；和個人保險的邁克爾克萊因。

They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment.

他們將討論我們業務的財務表現和當前的市場環境。

They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take your questions.

他們將在閱讀準備好的評論時參考網路廣播演示，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation.

在我將電話轉給艾倫之前，我想提請您注意網路廣播簡報末尾的解釋性說明。

Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements.

我們今天的演示包括前瞻性陳述。

The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance.

該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，並非對未來績效的保證。

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors.

由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These factors are described in forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC.

這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 報告中的前瞻性聲明中進行了描述。

We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，在我們的評論或對問題的答覆中，我們可能會提到一些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement, and other materials available in the Investors section on our website.

調節表包含在我們最近的收益新聞稿、財務補充資料以及我們網站投資者部分提供的其他資料中。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

現在我想把電話轉給艾倫‧施尼策。

Thank you, Abbe.

謝謝你，阿貝。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

Before we begin, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic wildfires that have devastated communities across Los Angeles.

在我們開始之前，我想花點時間了解摧毀了洛杉磯各地社區的悲慘野火。

Our hearts go out to everyone affected, those who've lost their homes, their businesses, and lost tragically their loved ones.

我們的心與所有受影響的人同在，他們失去了家園、生意，並悲慘地失去了親人。

At times like these, words alone are, of course, not enough.

在這種時候，光靠言語當然是不夠的。

As a company rooted in the communities we serve, we will be there for our customers and neighbors to support them as they recover and rebuild.

作為一家紮根於我們服務的社區的公司，我們將在客戶和鄰居的恢復和重建過程中為他們提供支援。

We've assessed impacted areas through aerial imagery and made live contact with the substantial majority of our customers with claims, enabling us to expedite claim payments.

我們透過航空影像評估了受影響的地區，並與絕大多數提出索賠的客戶進行了即時聯繫，使我們能夠加快索賠支付速度。

In addition, our expert claim team is on the ground, we're grateful for their efforts.

此外，我們的專家索賠團隊也在現場，我們感謝他們的努力。

We also have mobile claim offices positioned in the area where customers can file a claim in person or receive an advanced claim payment.

我們還在該地區設有移動索賠辦公室，客戶可以親自提出索賠或接收預付款。

And we look forward to working with policymakers in California, to make sure the state has a resilient insurance market going forward.

我們期待與加州的政策制定者合作，確保該州未來擁有一個有彈性的保險市場。

Now let me turn to our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results.

現在讓我談談我們的第四季和 2024 年全年業績。

We're very pleased to report that for the full year, core income was up 64% to more than $5 billion or $21.58 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 17.2%.

我們非常高興地報告，全年核心收入成長了 64%，超過 50 億美元，即稀釋後每股 21.58 美元，核心股本回報率為 17.2%。

These results were driven by strong fundamentals, growth in earned premiums, excellent underwriting profitability, and a higher level of net investment income.

這些業績的推動因素包括強勁的基本面、已賺取保費的成長、出色的承保獲利能力以及更高水準的淨投資收入。

That combination makes for a powerful earnings engine and that momentum is at our backs as we enter 2025.

這種結合造就了強大的獲利引擎，當我們進入 2025 年時，這種勢頭將成為我們的後盾。

Turning to our fourth quarter results.

轉向我們第四季的業績。

We are very pleased to have generated exceptional top and bottom line results.

我們很高興取得了出色的營收和利潤結果。

Core income for the quarter of $2.1 billion was a record.

本季核心收入達 21 億美元，創歷史新高。

Net earned premiums increased 9% to $10.9 billion, the combined ratio improved 2.6 points to 83.2%.

淨賺保費成長 9%，達到 109 億美元，綜合成本率提高 2.6 個百分點，達到 83.2%。

The improvement in the combined ratio was driven by very strong underlying profitability and higher net favorable prior year reserve development.

綜合成本率的改善是由非常強勁的基礎獲利能力和較高的上一年淨有利準備金開發所推動的。

The underwriting margins were strong in all three segments.

所有三個細分市場的承保利潤率都很高。

The combined ratio in business insurance improved by more than 1 point to an excellent 85.2%.

商業保險綜合成本率提升逾1個百分點，達到85.2%。

The combined ratio in our bond and specialty business was a very strong 82.7%, and the combined ratio in personal insurance improve than 6 points to an exceptional 80.7%.

我們的債券和專業業務的綜合成本率為 82.7%，非常強勁，而個人保險的綜合成本率則提高了 6 個百分點，達到了出色的 80.7%。

These terrific segment results led to a reported consolidated combined ratio that improved 2.6 points to 83.2%.

這些出色的分部表現導致報告的綜合綜合成本率提高了 2.6 個百分點，達到 83.2%。

Turning to investments.

轉向投資。

After-tax net investment income for the full year was up 21%, $3 billion, driven by strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio and higher returns from our non-fixed income portfolio.

由於我們不斷增長的固定收益投資組合強勁而可靠的回報以及非固定收益投資組合更高的回報，全年稅後淨投資收入增長了 21%，達到 30 億美元。

These results, together with our strong balance sheet, enabled us to grow adjusted book value per share by 13% during the year to $139.04, after making important investments in our business and turning more than $2 billion of excess capital to shareholders.

這些業績加上我們強勁的資產負債表，使我們在對業務進行重要投資並將超過20 億美元的超額資本轉給股東後，調整後每股賬面價值在這一年增長了13%，達到139.04美元。

Turning to the top line through continued terrific marketplace execution across all three segments.

透過在所有三個細分市場中持續出色的市場執行來實現營收。

We grew net written premiums during the year by 8% to more than $43 billion and in the quarter by 7% to $10.7 billion.

年內，我們的淨承保保費成長了 8%，達到超過 430 億美元，本季成長了 7%，達到 107 億美元。

The strong value proposition that we offer to our customers and distribution partners, along with outstanding execution by our colleagues in the field contributed to our top of success.

我們為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的強大價值主張，以及我們在該領域的同事的出色執行力，為我們取得了成功做出了貢獻。

In business insurance, we grew net written premiums in the quarter by 8% to $5.4 billion.

在商業保險方面，本季我們的淨承保保費成長了 8%，達到 54 億美元。

Renewal premium change in the segment remained very strong at 9.6%, including renewal rate change of 6.9%.

該細分市場的續保保費變化仍然非常強勁，達到 9.6%，其中續保費率變動為 6.9%。

Retention also remained strong at 85%.

保留率也維持在 85% 的強勁水準。

A combination of strong pricing and excellent retention reflects our deliberate and granular execution in a generally disciplined marketplace.

強勁的定價和出色的保留率相結合，反映了我們在普遍紀律嚴明的市場中深思熟慮和細緻的執行力。

In bond and specialty insurance, we grew net written premiums by 7% to $1.1 billion, with excellent retention of 88% in our high-quality management liability business.

在債券和專業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費成長了 7%，達到 11 億美元，優質管理責任業務的保留率高達 88%。

In our market-leading surety business, we grew net written premiums by 19%.

在我們市場領先的擔保業務中，我們的淨承保保費增加了 19%。

We are very pleased to have generated terrific production results across our commercial segments where margins continue to be attractive.

我們很高興在我們的商業領域取得了出色的生產成果，利潤率仍然具有吸引力。

That includes our E&S offerings, where we grew net written premiums by 13% in 2024.

這包括我們的 E&S 產品，到 2024 年，我們的淨承保保費增加了 13%。

In personal insurance, we grew net written premiums in the quarter by 7%, $4.3 billion, driven by continued strong premium change, particularly in our homeowners business.

在個人保險方面，由於持續強勁的保費變化（尤其是我們的房主業務），我們本季的淨承保保費增長了 7%，達到 43 億美元。

As we wrap up the year, I'd like to take a few minutes to reflect on our 2024 results and put them into an overtime context.

在我們結束這一年之際，我想花幾分鐘時間回顧我們 2024 年的業績，並將其放在加班的背景下。

As we've shared, we are and have been focusing our investments on three strategic innovation priorities.

正如我們所分享的，我們現在並將投資重點放在三個策略創新優先事項上。

First, extending our advantage in risk expertise; second, providing great experiences for our customers, distribution partners and employees; and third, optimizing productivity and efficiency, these investments are designed in large part to position us to grow over time at leading returns.

一是發揮風險專業優勢；其次，為我們的客戶、分銷合作夥伴和員工提供良好的體驗；第三，優化生產力和效率，這些投資在很大程度上是為了讓我們能夠隨著時間的推移獲得領先的回報成長。

The successful execution of that strategy has been an important contributor to our strong results providing us with the financial resources that enable us to continue investing at scale, which we believe will increasingly be a differentiator in this industry.

該策略的成功執行是我們取得強勁業績的重要因素，為我們提供了財務資源，使我們能夠繼續大規模投資，我們相信這將日益成為該行業的差異化因素。

It's a virtuous cycle.

這是一個良性循環。

The data on slide 19 of the webcast presentation illustrates the significant acceleration of our performance since we launched this strategy.

網路廣播簡報第 19 張投影片上的數據說明了自我們推出此策略以來我們的業績顯著提升。

We've grown our net written premiums over the past eight years by more than 70% to over $43 billion.

在過去八年裡，我們的淨承保保費增加了 70% 以上，達到超過 430 億美元。

At the same time, we've improved our underlying combined ratio by nearly 7 points.

同時，我們的基本綜合成本率提高了近 7 個百分點。

High-quality growth with strong underwriting profitability is a noteworthy achievement in this industry.

高品質的成長和強勁的承保盈利能力是該行業值得關注的成就。

In lines of business with returns that meet our objectives, growth over time has generally come from a combination of price increases and growth in customers.

在回報符合我們目標的業務領域，隨著時間的推移，成長通常來自價格上漲和客戶成長的結合。

In lines where the emphasis has been on improving returns, premium growth has been driven by higher pricing.

在強調提高回報的行業中，保費成長是由更高的定價所推動的。

In addition, our growth has largely been organic from products in which we have deep expertise to distribution partners with whom we have long-standing relationships, and in geographies where we have a thorough understanding of the regulatory environment and other market dynamics.

此外，我們的成長很大程度上是有機的，從我們擁有深厚專業知識的產品到與我們有長期關係的分銷合作夥伴，以及我們對監管環境和其他市場動態有透徹了解的地區。

In other words, a relatively low-risk growth strategy.

換句話說，這是一種風險相對較低的成長策略。

Through our focus on productivity and efficiency, we've also meaningfully improved our operating leverage over this time.

透過對生產力和效率的關注，我們在此期間也顯著提高了我們的營運槓桿。

We've allocated some of that benefit to investments in strategic priorities.

我們已將部分收益分配給戰略優先事項的投資。

As you can see on slide 21, since 2017, we've more than doubled our investments in strategic technology initiatives.

正如您在投影片 21 中看到的，自 2017 年以來，我們對戰略技術計畫的投資增加了一倍以上。

Over that same period, we've carefully managed growth in routine, but necessary technology expenditures.

在同一時期，我們謹慎地管理了常規但必要的技術支出的成長。

In other words, over an eight-year period, we simultaneously and meaningfully increased our technology spend and improve the strategic mix of the event.

換句話說，在八年的時間裡，我們同時有意義地增加了技術支出並改善了活動的策略組合。

In 2017, our strategic investments represented about a third of our tech spend.

2017 年，我們的策略投資約占我們技術支出的三分之一。

In 2024, our strategic tech investment approached nearly half of our overall tech spend of more than $1.5 billion.

2024 年，我們的策略技術投資接近我們超過 15 億美元的整體技術支出的一半。

At the same time, our efforts to improve operating leverage also enabled us to lower our expense ratio by more than 3 points or about 10%.

同時，我們提高營運槓桿的努力也使我們的費用率降低了3個百分點以上，即10%左右。

The flexibility that operating leverage gives us to allocate the benefit between investment opportunities and the bottom line is a valuable competitive advantage.

經營槓桿使我們能夠靈活地在投資機會和利潤之間分配利益，這是一項寶貴的競爭優勢。

Turning to underwriting.

轉向承保。

The tremendous strength and relative predictability of our underlying underwriting income has increasingly contributed to our bottom line.

我們基礎承保收入的巨大實力和相對可預測性對我們的利潤做出了越來越大的貢獻。

Our underlying underwriting income has more than tripled over the last eight years, reaching $4.5 billion after tax in 2024.

我們的基礎承保收入在過去八年中成長了兩倍多，到 2024 年達到稅後 45 億美元。

This level of underlying underwriting income positions us to deliver strong income and returns even with the level of outsized natural catastrophes we and the industry experienced in 2024.

即使我們和整個產業在 2024 年經歷了特大的自然災害，這種水準的基礎承保收入也使我們能夠提供強勁的收入和回報。

Our growth in underwriting income also contributed to the increase in our cash flow from operations which was $9.1 billion in 2024, our highest level ever and nearly $4 billion more than it was just five years ago.

我們承保收入的成長也促進了我們營運現金流的增加，到 2024 年，我們的現金流將達到 91 億美元，這是我們有史以來的最高水平，比五年前增加了近 40 億美元。

Our strong operating cash flow is important.

我們強勁的營運現金流非常重要。

It gives us the ability to make strategic investments in our business, return excess capital to shareholders, and grow our investment portfolio.

它使我們能夠對我們的業務進行策略性投資，向股東返還多餘的資本，並擴大我們的投資組合。

Our investment portfolio, which we grew almost $100 billion at year-end, positions us to continue generating a higher level of predictable and reliable net investment income.

我們的投資組合在年底成長了近 1000 億美元，使我們能夠繼續產生更高水準的可預測和可靠的淨投資收入。

In summary, we're capitalizing on the successful execution and effective strategy.

總之，我們正在利用成功的執行和有效的策略。

Our strong results and financial position enable us to be there when our customers need us most, as our friends and neighbors in Los Angeles do right now.

我們強勁的業績和財務狀況使我們能夠在客戶最需要我們的時候出現，就像我們在洛杉磯的朋友和鄰居現在所做的那樣。

The significant momentum we have built gives us great confidence in our ability to continue serving our customers and distribution partners, while delivering for our shareholders.

我們所建立的巨大勢頭使我們對繼續為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供服務、同時為股東提供服務的能力充滿信心。

In other words, we remain very confident in the outlook for Travelers.

換句話說，我們對旅行者的前景仍然充滿信心。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Alan.

謝謝你，艾倫。

Core income for the fourth quarter was $2.1 billion, and core return on equity was 27.7%, bringing the full year core income to $5 billion and full year core ROE to 17.2%.

第四季核心收入為21億美元，核心股本回報率為27.7%，使全年核心收入達50億美元，全年核心股本回報率為17.2%。

We once again generated record levels of earned premium this quarter and we're very pleased with both the total combined ratio of 83.2% and the underlying combined ratio of 84%.

本季我們再次創造了創紀錄的保費收入水平，我們對 83.2% 的總綜合成本率和 84% 的基礎綜合成本率感到非常滿意。

The value of premium growth at strong underlying margins is evidenced by the quarter's underlying underwriting income of $1.4 billion after tax, bringing the year-to-date figure to $4.5 billion.

本季稅後 14 億美元的基本承保收入證明了保費成長帶來的強勁基礎利潤的價值，使年初至今的數字達到 45 億美元。

That's our first time ever above $4 billion and an increase of nearly 40% from last year's then record level.

這是我們首次超過 40 億美元，比去年創紀錄的水平增長了近 40%。

The reported and underlying combined ratios for both the quarter and the full year were very strong in all three segments.

本季度和全年的報告和基本綜合比率在所有三個領域都非常強勁。

The expense ratio for the fourth quarter came in at 28.2%, once again, reflecting the benefits of our focus on productivity and efficiency, coupled with strong top-line growth.

第四季的費用率為 28.2%，再次反映出我們專注於生產力和效率以及強勁的營收成長所帶來的好處。

The full year expense ratio of 28.5% was in line with our expectations and our guidance throughout the year.

全年費用率為 28.5%，符合我們的預期和全年指引。

Even as the excellent loss ratio resulted in higher supplemental commission expense.

儘管出色的損失率導致了更高的補充佣金費用。

Looking ahead to 2025, we're comfortable with the annual expense ratio at this level for now as the strength of the underlying loss ratio provides continued opportunity to make meaningful investments in both people and technology that we believe will broaden and deepen our competitive advantages well into the future.

展望2025 年，我們目前對這一水平的年度費用率感到滿意，因為潛在損失率的強勁提供了持續的機會，可以對人員和技術進行有意義的投資，我們相信這將擴大和深化我們的競爭優勢進入未來。

Catastrophe losses in the fourth quarter were a modest $175 million pretax, including a net increase of a little more than $100 million related to re-estimation of prior quarter cats.

第四季的災難損失為稅前 1.75 億美元，其中包括與上一季預測相關的淨增加略多於 1 億美元。

Turning to prior year reserve development.

轉向上一年的儲備開發。

We had total net favorable development of $262 million pretax with all three segments contributing.

我們的稅前淨有利發展總額為 2.62 億美元，所有三個部門都做出了貢獻。

In business insurance, net favorable PYD of $147 million was driven by favorability in workers' comp that was partially offset by adverse development in abuse and molestation exposure and our runoff book.

在商業保險方面，淨有利的 PYD 為 1.47 億美元，這是由工人補償的有利因素推動的，這部分被虐待和性騷擾風險以及我們的徑流賬簿的不利發展所抵消。

In bond and specialty, net favorable PYD of $45 million was driven by better-than-expected results in fidelity and surety.

在債券和專業債券方面，由於保真度和保證性方面好於預期的結果，淨有利 PYD 達到 4500 萬美元。

Personal insurance had $70 million of net favorable PYD with favorability in both auto and homes.

個人保險有 7000 萬美元的淨優惠 PYD，對汽車和房屋都有優惠。

After-tax net investment income of $785 million was up 22% from the prior year quarter.

稅後淨投資收益為 7.85 億美元，比去年同期成長 22%。

Fixed maturity NII was again higher than the prior year quarter, reflecting both the benefit of higher yields and the significant growth in our portfolio of invested assets, which, as Alan mentioned, is approaching the $100 billion mark.

固定期限NII再次高於去年同期，反映了收益率上升的好處以及我們投資資產組合的顯著增長，正如艾倫所提到的，投資資產組合已接近1000億美元大關。

Returns in the non-fixed income portfolio were also higher than in the prior year quarter.

非固定收益投資組合的報酬率也高於去年同期。

In terms of our outlook for fixed income NII for 2025, including earnings from short-term securities, we expect approximately $3 billion after tax, beginning with $710 million in the first quarter and growing to $790 million in the fourth quarter.

就我們對 2025 年固定收益 NII 的展望（包括短期證券收益）而言，我們預計稅後約為 30 億美元，從第一季的 7.1 億美元開始，第四季度增長到 7.9 億美元。

Page 22 of the webcast presentation provides information about our January 1 catastrophe reinsurance renewal.

網路廣播簡報的第 22 頁提供了有關 1 月 1 日巨災再保險續保的資訊。

Our long-standing cat XoL treaty continues to provide coverage for both single cat events and the aggregation of losses from multiple cat events, and we have increased the amount of total coverage for 2025.

我們長期簽訂的 Cat XoL 條約繼續為單起 Cat 事件和多起 Cat 事件造成的損失匯總提供承保，我們增加了 2025 年的總承保金額。

The [per occurrence] loss deductible was unchanged at $100 million, and we've placed coverage for $3.7 billion of the $4 billion layer above the $4 billion attachment point.

[每次發生]損失免賠額保持在 1 億美元不變，並且我們已將 40 億美元層中 37 億美元的保險範圍置於 40 億美元附加點之上。

We're pleased to have added $150 million of coverage, while reducing the total amount of ceded premium for this treaty.

我們很高興增加了 1.5 億美元的承保範圍，同時減少了該條約的讓渡保費總額。

Also as part of our January 1 renewals, we enhanced our Casualty Reinsurance Program for 2025.

此外，作為 1 月 1 日續保的一部分，我們也增強了 2025 年傷亡再保險計畫。

Thanks to the reinsurance market's receptivity to our casualty book, we were able to purchase more coverage at a lower attachment point on a roughly margin-neutral basis.

由於再保險市場對我們的傷亡帳簿的接受度，我們能夠在大致保證金中性的基礎上以較低的附加點購買更多的保險。

I'd point this out to make you aware that the incremental ceded premium related to the additional coverage will impact the growth rate of consolidated net written premium for full year 2025 by a little less than 0.5 point because the written ceded premium impact all hits business insurance in the first quarter.

我指出這一點是為了讓您意識到，與額外承保範圍相關的增量分出保費將對2025 年全年綜合淨保費增長率產生略低於0.5 個百分點的影響，因為分出保費會影響所有命中業務第一季保險。

The impact on net written premium growth in Q1 for the BI segment will be about 4 points or about 2 points on a consolidated basis.

對 BI 業務第一季淨承保保費成長的影響將約為 4 個百分點，綜合計算約為 2 個百分點。

And while we're talking about the 2025 year on a financial modeling note, as you can see on slide 23 of the webcast presentation, our pretax catastrophe plan for 2025 is 6.9 combined ratio points.

當我們在財務建模說明中討論 2025 年時，正如您在網路廣播簡報的幻燈片 23 中看到的那樣，我們 2025 年的稅前災難計劃是 6.9 個綜合比率點。

Slide 23 also provides a summary of the seasonality of our cat losses over the prior decade.

投影片 23 也總結了過去十年貓損失的季節性。

As shown in the data, second quarter is regularly and noticeably been our largest cat quarter.

如數據所示，第二季度通常是我們最大的貓咪季度。

We've provided this view of historical data in our year-end packages for a few years now, but we thought it might also be helpful to share our plan view for the coming year by quarter, so you'll find that here as well.

幾年來，我們已經在年終套餐中提供了這種歷史數據視圖，但我們認為按季度分享我們對未來逐年的計劃視圖也可能會有所幫助，因此您也會在這裡找到它。

Obviously, the 2025 plan figures were put together without knowledge of the January wildfires in California.

顯然，2025 年計畫數據是在不了解加州 1 月山火的情況下匯總的。

As you know, the California wildfires that began earlier this month are going to be a material event for the industry and will have a material impact on our first quarter earnings.

如您所知，本月早些時候開始的加州野火將成為該行業的重大事件，並將對我們第一季的收益產生重大影響。

Because the event is so recent and to some degree, still ongoing, we'd like to take more time to refine our analysis before providing an estimate.

由於該事件是最近發生的，並且在某種程度上仍在進行中，因此我們希望在提供估計之前花更多時間來完善我們的分析。

Also of interest for 2025, we continue to value our relationship with Fidelis and are pleased to have renewed the 20% quota share with them.

2025 年同樣值得關注的是，我們繼續重視與 Fidelis 的關係，並很高興與他們續簽了 20% 的配額份額。

The renewal includes the same loss ratio cap we had in place for both 2023 and 2024.

此次更新包括我們在 2023 年和 2024 年制定的相同損失率上限。

Turning to capital management.

轉向資本管理。

Operating cash flows for the quarter of $2.1 billion were again very strong and we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $1.8 billion.

本季的營運現金流再次非常強勁，達到 21 億美元，本季末我們控股公司的流動性約為 18 億美元。

For the full year, we generated our best ever level of operating cash flow at $9.1 billion.

全年，我們實現了有史以來最好的營運現金流水平，達到 91 億美元。

Interest rates increased during the quarter, and as a result, our net unrealized investment loss increased from $2.1 billion after tax at September 30, $3.6 billion after tax at year-end.

本季利率上升，導致我們的未實現投資淨損失從 9 月 30 日的稅後 21 億美元增加到年底的稅後 36 億美元。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gain to losses, was $139.4 at year-end, up 13% from a year ago.

截至年底，調整後每股帳面價值（不包括未實現的淨投資損益）為 139.4 美元，比去年同期成長 13%。

We returned $494 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter, comprising share repurchases of $252 million and dividends of $242 million.

本季我們向股東返還了 4.94 億美元的資本，其中包括 2.52 億美元的股票回購和 2.42 億美元的股息。

We have approximately $5 billion of capacity remaining under the share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors.

根據董事會的股票回購授權，我們還有大約 50 億美元的剩餘產能。

Recapping our results for 2024, core income was just over $5 billion and core ROE was 17.2%.

回顧我們 2024 年的業績，核心收入略高於 50 億美元，核心股本回報率為 17.2%。

We delivered our highest ever levels of written premium, underwriting income, net investment income, core income, and cash flow from operations.

我們實現了有史以來最高水準的承保保費、承保收入、淨投資收入、核心收入和營運現金流。

In addition, we ended the year with our all-time high in adjusted book value per share and with our largest investment portfolio ever.

此外，我們在年底實現了調整後每股帳面價值的歷史新高，並擁有有史以來最大的投資組合。

In short, we're extremely well-positioned for 2025 and beyond.

簡而言之，我們為 2025 年及以後做好了充分準備。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of Business Insurance.

接下來，我將把電話轉給格雷格，討論商業保險問題。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

Business insurance had another strong quarter, rounding out a terrific year in terms of financial results execution in the marketplace and progress on our strategic initiatives.

商業保險業務又經歷了一個強勁的季度，在市場財務業績執行和策略舉措進展方面為這一年畫上了圓滿的句號。

Segment income for the quarter was nearly $1.2 billion, our highest quarter ever and up about 25% from the prior year quarter, which was our previous quarterly high.

該季度的部門收入接近 12 億美元，是我們有史以來最高的季度，比去年同期增長約 25%，這是我們上一季的最高點。

The improvement from the prior year was broad-based, driven by higher net investment income, higher underlying underwriting income, and higher favorable prior year reserve development.

受淨投資收入增加、基礎承保收入增加以及上年有利準備金開發增加的推動，與上年相比的改善是廣泛的。

The all-in combined ratio of 85.2% was a great result, and we're once again particularly pleased with our exceptional underlying combined ratio of 86.2%, an all-time quarterly best.

85.2% 的總綜合成本率是一個很好的結果，我們再次對我們 86.2% 的卓越基礎綜合成本率感到特別滿意，這是歷史上最好的季度。

The underlying loss ratio improved by more than 0.5 point from the prior year, driven by the benefit of earned pricing.

在贏得定價收益的推動下，基本損失率比前一年改善了 0.5 個百分點以上。

The expense ratio remained excellent at 28.8%.

費用比率仍維持在28.8%的優異水準。

Turning to the top line.

轉向頂行。

We grew net written premiums by 8% to an all-time fourth quarter high of more than $5.4 billion.

我們的淨承保保費成長了 8%，達到第四季的歷史新高，超過 54 億美元。

Pricing remained strong with renewal premium change of 9.6% driven by a renewal rate change of 6.9%.

續保費率變動 6.9%，導致續保保費變動 9.6%，定價依然強勁。

Retention remained excellent at 85%, a new business of $641 million was the second highest fourth quarter result ever, second only to last year's record fourth quarter.

保留率仍保持在 85% 的出色水平，新業務 6.41 億美元是第四季度有史以來第二高的業績，僅次於去年創紀錄的第四季度。

We're pleased with these production results and our ability to sustain strong levels of pricing, reflecting the relative return profiles in environmental trends for each line.

我們對這些生產結果以及維持強勁定價水準的能力感到滿意，這反映了每條生產線環境趨勢的相對回報。

Renewal rate increases in Umbrella and Auto were both well into double digits and both up sequentially from the third quarter.

Umbrella 和 Auto 的續訂率增幅均達到兩位數，且均較第三季連續上升。

Rate increases in CMP [NGL] remains strong and generally in line with third quarter levels, while the rate increases in property were less than Q3.

CMP [NGL] 的利率上漲依然強勁，整體上與第三季的水平一致，而房地產的利率上漲幅度低於第三季。

More specifically on property rate, the moderation continues to be driven by our national property book, where returns are very strong after several years of compounding rate and improvements in terms and conditions.

更具體地說，在房地產利率方面，我們的國家房地產帳簿繼續推動房地產利率的放緩，經過幾年的複利率以及條款和條件的改善，回報率非常強​​勁。

Across the book, even with the sustained strong pricing levels, retention remained excellent, as I mentioned earlier, reflecting our strong value proposition and the marketplace's acknowledgment of environmental trends and uncertainty.

正如我之前提到的，縱觀整本書，即使定價水平持續強勁，保留率仍然出色，反映了我們強大的價值主張以及市場對環境趨勢和不確定性的認可。

As for the individual businesses, in Select, renewal premium change remained strong at 12%, up about 1 point from the fourth quarter of last year.

就個人業務而言，精選業務的續保保費變化依然強勁，達到 12%，較去年第四季上升約 1 個百分點。

Renewal rechange of 5.6% ticked up from the third quarter and was up more than 1.5 points from the prior year quarter.

續訂率較第三季上升 5.6%，較去年同期上升 1.5 個百分點以上。

As we expected, retention moderated as we continue to intentionally optimize our CMP risk return profile in a couple of targeted geographies.

正如我們預期的那樣，隨著我們繼續有意優化幾個目標地區的 CMP 風險回報狀況，保留率有所下降。

New business was healthy and near historical highs.

新業務健康發展並接近歷史高點。

Overall, we remain pleased with the granular pricing and underwriting execution driving profitable growth in Select.

總體而言，我們對推動 Select 獲利成長的精細定價和承保執行感到滿意。

The mix we are achieving through these actions positions us for long-term success.

我們透過這些行動實現的組合使我們能夠取得長期成功。

In middle market, renewal premium change was close to 10%, with renewal rate change of 7.8%, about flat with the third quarter and up about 1 point from the prior year quarter.

中階市場續保保費變動接近10%，續保費率變動7.8%，與第三季基本持平，去年同期上升約1個百分點。

The rate increases remain broad-based as we achieved positive rate change on almost 80% of our middle market accounts, and the execution was once again excellent with meaningful spread from our best-performing accounts to our lower-performing accounts.

由於我們近80% 的中間市場帳戶實現了積極的利率變化，利率上調仍然是廣泛的，並且執行力再次出色，從我們表現最好的帳戶到表現較差的帳戶之間存在有意義的利差。

Lastly, new business of $357 million was our highest ever fourth quarter, and we're pleased with the risk selection and strength of pricing on the accounts we added to the portfolio.

最後，3.57 億美元的新業務是我們第四季度有史以來最高的，我們對我們添加到投資組合中的帳戶的風險選擇和定價感到滿意。

As we close out 2024, let me provide a little color on full year results before turning the call over to Jeff.

2024 年即將結束，在將電話轉交給傑夫之前，讓我先介紹一下全年業績。

Segment income of more than $3.3 billion, the underlying combined ratio of 88.1%, and top line of more than $22 billion, were all record results.

部門收入超過 33 億美元，基本綜合成本率為 88.1%，營收超過 220 億美元，均創歷史新高。

As for production, renewal premium change in retention both remained historically high, while new business premiums reached an all-time best.

產量方面，續保保費變化和保留率均維持歷史高位，而新業務保費則創歷史新高。

These results are a direct reflection of our strong value proposition as well as the successful execution of our thoughtful and deliberate strategies.

這些結果直接反映了我們強大的價值主張以及我們深思熟慮的策略的成功執行。

And while delivering these exceptional financial and production results, I'm also extremely pleased with our field execution and our broader team's dedication to delivering new tools, insights and product enhancements.

在提供這些卓越的財務和生產成果的同時，我也對我們的現場執行力以及我們更廣泛的團隊致力於提供新工具、見解和產品增強的奉獻精神感到非常滿意。

We have strengthened our competitive advantages in several key areas.

我們在幾個關鍵領域增強了競爭優勢。

Among other achievements, we have developed a more granular and predictive price to risk models, enhanced submission insights based on quality and appetite, leverage more segmented and responsive loss analytics methodologies, and integrated a customer relationship platform with our cutting-edge underwriting workstation.

除其他成就外，我們開發了更精細和更具預測性的風險價格模型，增強了基於品質和偏好的提交見解，利用更細分和響應更靈敏的損失分析方法，並將客戶關係平台與我們最先進的核保工作站整合。

Our financial and operational performance this year was terrific, and our continued focus and investment in strategic capabilities positions us extremely well for long-term profitable growth.

我們今年的財務和營運表現非常出色，我們對策略能力的持續關注和投資使我們非常有利於長期獲利成長。

We're proud of these results and the best-in-class team that produce them.

我們為這些成果以及實現這些成果的一流團隊感到自豪。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

這樣，我就把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

Bond and specialty ended the year with another strong quarter on both the top and bottom lines.

債券和特種債券在今年結束時在收入和利潤上都表現出另一個強勁的季度。

We generated segment income of $228 million, an excellent combined ratio of 82.7%, and a strong 86.8% underlying combined ratio in the quarter.

本季我們創造了 2.28 億美元的分部收入、82.7% 的出色綜合成本率和 86.8% 的強勁基礎綜合成本率。

Turning to the top line.

轉向頂行。

We're pleased that we grew net written premiums by 7% in the quarter.

我們很高興本季淨承保保費增加了 7%。

In our high-quality domestic management liability business, we delivered very strong retention of 88%.

在我們高品質的國內管理責任業務中，我們的保留率非常高，達到 88%。

We're pleased that Corvus transition from an MGA to writing on our high-quality paper drove higher attention relative to Corvus historical experience.

我們很高興 Corvus 從 MGA 過渡到在我們的高品質論文上撰寫文章，引起了人們對 Corvus 歷史經驗的更高關注。

Management liability renewal premium change was positive and improved 1 point from the third quarter and new business were consistent with the very strong fourth quarter of 2023.

管理責任續保保費呈正變化，較第三季提高 1 個百分點，新業務與 2023 年第四季的強勁表現一致。

Turning to our market-leading surety business.

轉向我們市場領先的擔保業務。

We grew net written premiums by an outstanding 19% from prior year quarter.

與去年同期相比，我們的淨承保保費增加了 19%。

This growth reflects a robust construction environment, continued strong demand for our Surety products and Services and outstanding execution by our team in growing our high credit quality portfolio.

這一成長反映了強勁的建築環境、對我們擔保產品和服務的持續強勁需求以及我們團隊在發展高信用品質投資組合方面的出色執行力。

So we're pleased to have once again delivered strong top and bottom line results this quarter in bond and specialty Insurance, capping off a year during which we delivered record levels of net written premiums in both our surety and management liability businesses.

因此，我們很高興本季在債券和專業保險領域再次取得了強勁的營收和利潤業績，為我們的保證和管理責任業務創造了創紀錄的淨承保保費水準。

We're also pleased to have delivered excellent returns, while making significant strategic investments in our business, including enhancing our cyber capabilities, upgrading our management liability technology platform, and optimizing segmentation and productivity through advanced analytics and AI.

我們也很高興獲得了豐厚的回報，同時對我們的業務進行了重大戰略投資，包括增強我們的網路能力、升級我們的管理責任技術平台，以及透過高級分析和人工智慧優化細分和生產力。

And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

現在我將把電話轉給麥可。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝傑夫，大家早安。

I'm very pleased to share that personal insurance delivered segment income of $798 million and a combined ratio of 80.7% for the fourth quarter of 2024.

我很高興地告訴大家，2024 年第四季個人保險部門營收為 7.98 億美元，綜合成本率為 80.7%。

Both results outpaced last year's strong fourth quarter results.

這兩項業績都超過了去年第四季的強勁業績。

For the full year, PI delivered record segment income of $1.25 billion and a combined ratio of 94.4%, reflecting substantial improvement in the fundamentals of our business.

PI全年實現創紀錄的分部收入12.5億美元，綜合成本率為94.4%，反映出我們業務基本面的大幅改善。

Net written premiums grew 7% in the quarter and 8% for the year, bringing full year net written premium to a record of nearly $17.2 billion.

本季淨承保保費成長 7%，全年淨承保保費成長 8%，使全年淨承保保費達到近 172 億美元的創紀錄水準。

In automobile, the fourth quarter combined ratio was 94.2%.

汽車領域，第四季綜合成本率為94.2%。

The underlying combined ratio of 96.3% improved 6.4 points compared to the prior year.

基本綜合成本率為96.3%，較前一年提高6.4個百分點。

This improvement was primarily driven by the benefit of higher earned pricing, lower losses resulting from favorable frequency across a number of coverages, and sustained moderation in physical damage severity trends.

這種改善主要是由於更高的贏得定價、由於多個承保範圍內的有利頻率而導致的損失降低以及物理損壞嚴重程度趨勢的持續緩和所帶來的好處。

This quarter's underlying results included a 1.5 point benefit from the favorable re-estimation of prior quarters in the current year.

本季度的基本業績包括對本年度前幾季有利的重新估計帶來的 1.5 個百分點的收益。

For the full year 2024, the auto combined ratio of 95% was a considerable improvement compared to the prior year, reflecting the success of our disciplined approach to execution.

2024 年全年，汽車綜合成本率達到 95%，與前一年相比有了相當大的提高，反映出我們嚴謹的執行方法的成功。

With another quarter of sustained profitability, we remain focused on growing the auto book.

隨著又一個季度的持續獲利，我們仍然專注於成長汽車業務。

In homeowners and other, the fourth quarter combined ratio of 67.8% improved 3 points compared to the prior year as an improved underlying combined ratio was partially offset by the impact from higher catastrophes.

在房主和其他方面，第四季度綜合成本率為 67.8%，比去年同期提高了 3 個百分點，因為基本綜合成本率的改善被較高災難的影響部分抵消了。

The underlying combined ratio improved 4.3 points, primarily driven by favorable non-weather losses relative to the prior year, and the continued benefit of earned pricing.

基本綜合成本率提高了 4.3 個百分點，主要是由於與前一年相比有利的非天氣損失以及贏得定價的持續收益。

This quarter's underlying results included a 2-point benefit from the favorable re-estimation of prior quarters in the current year.

本季的基本業績包括對今年前幾季的有利重新估計帶來的 2 個百分點的收益。

Stepping back, the 2024 full year property combined ratio of 93.9% was a strong calendar year result.

退一步來說，2024 年全年房地產綜合成本率為 93.9%，是強勁的歷年業績。

That said, we have more work to do to improve accident year profitability and consistently deliver target returns over time.

也就是說，我們還有更多工作要做，以提高事故年的獲利能力並隨著時間的推移持續實現目標回報。

Our production results reflect our continued focus on generating growth in auto, while improving profitability in property through the execution of a granular state-by-state strategy.

我們的生產業績反映了我們持續關注汽車產業的成長，同時透過執行細粒度的州際策略來提高房地產的獲利能力。

In domestic automobile retention remained consistent, while renewal premium change of 10.2% continued to moderate as intended, reflective of auto profitability.

在國內汽車保有量保持穩定，而續保保費變化 10.2% 繼續按預期緩和，反映了汽車盈利能力。

We're pleased to note that auto new business premium increased relative to the prior year quarter, driven by growth in new policies and new business premiums in states that are not constrained by our property actions.

我們很高興地註意到，由於不受我們財產行動限制的州的新政策和新業務保費的增長，汽車新業務保費相對於去年同期有所增加。

In domestic homeowners and other, retention rose slightly to 86% and renewal premium change of 14.1% remained strong and consistent with recent quarters.

在國內房主和其他業主中，保留率小幅上升至 86%，續保保費變化 14.1% 仍然強勁，與最近幾季保持一致。

In 2025, we expect renewal premium change to increase to the high teens as we continue to see rate increases and further increase insured values to ensure they remain aligned with replacement costs.

到 2025 年，我們預計續保保費變化將增加到十幾歲，因為我們繼續看到費率上漲，並進一步增加保險價值，以確保它們與重置成本保持一致。

The slight decline in homeowners policies in force continues to reflect our deliberate efforts to improve profitability and thoughtfully deploy our property capacity.

現行房主政策的小幅下降繼續反映了我們為提高盈利能力和深思熟慮地部署房地產產能而做出的刻意努力。

To recap, in 2024, we delivered record net written premiums and segment income.

回顧一下，2024 年，我們實現了創紀錄的淨承保保費和分部收入。

The substantial year-over-year improvement reflects the success of the significant actions we've taken to improve the fundamentals of the business, as well as the moderation of underlying loss trends.

同比的大幅改善反映了我們為改善業務基本面而採取的重大行動的成功，以及潛在損失趨勢的緩和。

At the same time, we continue to invest in and deliver capabilities that will support the profitable growth of our business.

同時，我們繼續投資並提供支持我們業務獲利成長的能力。

Examples include the re-platforming of our specialty products, continued advancement of our IntelliDrive telematics offering, further evolution of our AI-enabled aerial imagery capabilities, and modernization of our infrastructure.

例如，我們的專業產品重新平台化、IntelliDrive 遠端資訊處理產品的持續改進、人工智慧航空影像功能的進一步發展以及基礎設施的現代化。

I couldn't be more proud of our team or more grateful to our distribution partners for their hard work and dedication in the face of an environment that continues to test and challenge us and our industry.

我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪，也非常感謝我們的分銷合作夥伴在不斷考驗和挑戰我們和我們的行業的環境中的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

In particular, I'd like to recognize our claim team who, as we speak, are on the ground in California, supporting our customers in their time of need.

我特別要感謝我們的索賠團隊，正如我們所說，他們正在加州現場，在我們的客戶需要時為他們提供支援。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給 Abbe。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，麥可。

We are ready to open up for questions now.

我們現在準備好接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Robert Cox, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指令）羅伯特·考克斯，高盛。

Maybe just first on pricing.

也許首先是定價。

I was hoping you could kind of unpack the renewal rate change a little bit and what you saw over the quarter that might have been indicative of a trend into 2025 whether it's by account size or product.

我希望您能稍微解釋一下續訂率的變化，以及您在本季度看到的情況，無論是按帳戶規模還是按產品，這可能表明了 2025 年的趨勢。

Just curious what changed in the context of an overall stable figure for business insurance.

只是好奇在商業保險整體穩定的背景下發生了什麼變化。

Hi Robert, this is Greg.

嗨羅伯特，我是格雷格。

Given the headline numbers, you can see there isn't meaningful change between the pricing.

鑑於標題數字，您可以看到定價之間沒有有意義的變化。

So again, our very granular local execution.

再說一遍，我們非常精細的本地執行。

We continue to look at it on an account-by-account basis, and we haven't seen any meaningful shift other than the color that I gave you in the prepared comments, so very stable.

我們繼續逐個帳戶地查看它，除了我在準備好的評論中給您的顏色之外，我們沒有看到任何有意義的變化，所以非常穩定。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then maybe just as a follow-up on cat.

然後也許只是貓咪的後續行動。

Obviously, a number of large events here.

顯然，這裡舉辦過一些大型活動。

I was hoping you could just walk us through what you booked for Milton if that $100 million increase in current year cats was all related to Helene and then not necessarily a quantitative question, but ultimately, like the impacts that you expect might come out of the California fires.

我希望你能向我們介紹一下你為米爾頓預訂的內容，如果今年貓的 1 億美元增長都與海倫有關，那麼不一定是一個定量問題，但最終，就像你期望的影響一樣加州發生火災。

Rob, it's Dan.

羅布，我是丹。

So I'll start with PYD.

所以我將從 PYD 開始。

So no big events in the quarter, as you can see by no new events you'll be able to see when the cake comes out in the table.

因此，本季度沒有重大事件，正如您所看到的，當蛋糕出現在表中時，您將無法看到新事件。

Milton was around $60 million for us, so a little less than the preliminary range we had provided on the third quarter earnings call.

Milton 為我們提供的資金約為 6000 萬美元，略低於我們在第三季財報電話會議上提供的初步範圍。

A number of prior quarter cats had adjustments to them.

許多前季度的貓都進行了調整。

That's typical.

這是典型的。

That change that you referenced from my prepared remarks, was driven by Helene, not surprising, not concerning, right?

你在我準備好的發言中提到的這一變化是由海倫推動的，這並不令人驚訝，也不令人擔憂，對吧？

That was a big event in the last five days of the quarter.

這是本季最後五天的一件大事。

And with sort of an unusual pattern as it had sort of did more damage in Georgia and the Carolinas than it did in Florida.

而且這種模式有點不尋常，因為它在喬治亞州和卡羅來納州造成的損害比在佛羅裡達州造成的損害更大。

So when you get a big event at the end of the quarter, you're trying to say have other similar historical events that I can model out, how claims are going to come in and then with the severity of their types of claims is going to be, you just didn't have a lot of comparables in terms of Helene, so not really surprising to see a move there.

因此，當您在季度末發生重大事件時，您想說的是我可以模擬其他類似的歷史事件，索賠將如何發生，然後索賠類型的嚴重程度將如何發生就海倫而言，您只是沒有很多可比的，所以看到那裡的舉動並不奇怪。

In terms of California, look, as we said in our remarks, it's going to be a big event for the industry.

就加州而言，正如我們在演講中所說，這將是該行業的一件大事。

We think it will have an impact on our first quarter earnings for sure.

我們認為這肯定會對我們第一季的收益產生影響。

But to the degree that it's still very early and it's still really ongoing.

但就目前而言，這還為時過早，而且仍在持續進行中。

In some cases, it's just too soon for us to provide a number at this point.

在某些情況下，我們現在提供數字還為時過早。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I guess for the first question, kind of building on the last answer.

我想對於第一個問題，有點建立在最後一個答案的基礎上。

In your prepared remarks, Greg, you talked about the Select retention dropping down a little bit due in part to some changes in your CMP profile.

Greg，在您準備好的發言中，您談到選擇保留率略有下降，部分原因是您的 CMP 個人資料發生了一些變化。

If you could give us a little color on that.

如果你能給我們一點顏色的話。

And maybe as we look at business insurance, give us some perspective on the retention ratios as it relates to lost business that you're losing on price versus intentional re-underwriting?

也許當我們審視商業保險時，請給我們一些關於保留率的看法，因為它與您在價格上損失的業務和有意再承保的業務損失有關？

Yeah, Greg, let me take those two pieces.

是的，格雷格，要我拿走這兩塊。

First, the Select one, start there.

首先，選擇一個，從那裡開始。

You get into a little bit of competitive sensitive information if I give you the exact specifics of what geographies and industry classes that were non-renewing, but let me give you a little color over the top.

如果我向您提供非更新的地理位置和行業類別的確切細節，您就會了解一些競爭敏感信息，但讓我給您一點顏色。

We would only do non-renewals when we can't get the right price to risk through the regulatory process.

只有當我們無法透過監管流程獲得合適的風險價格時，我們才會不續約。

So you can think about severe convective storm.

所以你可以考慮強對流風暴。

That's a recent peril that continues to be more severe.

這是最近出現的危險，而且還在變得更加嚴重。

We've isolated a couple of spots where we've needed nonrenewal components of the small commercial book, but that gives you a little bit of the flavor of what's driving that.

我們隔離了幾個需要小型商業書籍的非更新組件的地方，但這讓您對推動這一趨勢的因素有一點了解。

We think we bottomed out on those non-renewals of Select.

我們認為我們已經因 Select 的不續約而觸底。

So at that 80% retention, that's kind of the expectation that we have, given that we are through the [frost] of those renewals in the back half of 2025, we would see some improvement there.

因此，對於 80% 的保留率，這就是我們的預期，考慮到我們在 2025 年下半年經歷了這些續訂的[霜凍]，我們會看到那裡的一些改進。

So that's really the driver of what's driving the slight deterioration in retention across business insurance.

因此，這確實是導致商業保險保留率略有下降的原因。

Great.

偉大的。

And then I guess as a follow-up, and I've asked this question of you before, Alan.

然後我想作為後續行動，我以前問過你這個問題，艾倫。

But looking at Slide 21, which is your technology investments, not really -- you provide us this chart, don't really put some numbers in there, and we hear you in various comments dribble out commentary about where you're making investments in technology.

但是看看幻燈片21，這是您的技術投資，而不是真正的- 您向我們提供了這張圖表，並沒有真正在其中放入一些數字，我們聽到您在各種評論中對您在哪些方面進行投資進行了評論技術。

But I thought maybe we could spend a minute and give us some more granular details on what's going on there because it seems like it's a pretty important initiative for the company.

但我想也許我們可以花一點時間向我們提供一些有關正在發生的事情的更詳細的細節，因為這似乎對公司來說是一項非常重要的舉措。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

In terms of numbers, we don't put numbers on that scale, but we have shared that the overall tech spends over $1.5 billion last year, and I think we shared that in the prior year.

就數字而言，我們沒有給出如此規模的數字，但我們已經分享了去年整個技術支出超過 15 億美元，我認為我們在前一年也分享了這一點。

And if I had to give you a broad-brush response to where is it, I would say, broadly speaking, but not exclusively, but broadly speaking, we're digitizing the value chain.

如果我必須對它在哪裡給出一個粗略的回答，我會說，從廣義上講，但不是排他性的，但從廣義上講，我們正在數位化價值鏈。

And so that's digitizing the customer journey, it's modernizing the foundation, it's advanced analytics, it's automation, it's faster speed to market, getting the right price on the risk, those sorts of things.

因此，這就是客戶旅程的數位化、基礎的現代化、進階分析、自動化、更快的上市速度、針對風險獲得正確的價格等等。

But at the enterprise level, we're also investing in talent and AI and third-party data, product development, the business units, and segments are busy at work investing in new products, partner integration, better funding for customers, things like that.

但在企業層面，我們也在人才、人工智慧和第三方數據、產品開發、業務部門和部門方面進行投資，各部門都忙於投資新產品、合作夥伴整合、為客戶提供更好的資金等等。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

First question on the reserve releases in commercial.

關於商業儲備發布的第一個問題。

Most recently we've seen in a couple of years, good to see.

最近我們幾年來見過，很高興看到。

Any -- I heard -- we heard the prepared remarks, the high-level prepared remarks, but anything you'd want to call out as kind of a notable true-up?

我聽說，我們聽到了準備好的講話，高層準備好的講話，但是您想指出什麼是值得注意的事實嗎？

Or I guess this level of releases would kind of imply that the IBNR you guys have added in recent years, more so than your peers kind of is helping.

或者我猜這種級別的發佈在某種程度上意味著你們近年來添加的 IBNR 比你們的同行更有幫助。

Sure, Mike, it's Dan.

當然，麥克，我是丹。

So just to come back to the remarks specific to business insurance.

回到關於商業保險的具體言論。

The main driver of the favorability was workers' comp.

好感度的主要驅動力是工人補償。

Workers' comp has been as you all well know, a very favorable story for a long time now.

眾所周知，工人補償長期以來一直是一個非常受歡迎的故事。

It's sort of just a question of how much is it from quarter to quarter depending on the way data developments and changes in frequency and severity.

這只是一個問題，每個季度的變化是多少，這取決於數據發展的方式以及頻率和嚴重性的變化。

We've said it before, and I'll just say it again, we don't really think of PYD as a run rate of any sort.

我們之前已經說過，我再說一遍，我們並不真正將 PYD 視為任何類型的運行率。

So I expect that number to be different from quarter to quarter.

所以我預計這個數字每季都會有所不同。

That was the big piece of good news in the quarter.

這是本季的一大好消息。

The only noteworthy piece of unfavorable development in the quarter, as I mentioned on the call was strengthening in the runoff book for Abuse and Molestation, there are always other puts and takes in the quarter, but nothing of any significance or worth calling out.

正如我在電話會議上提到的那樣，本季度唯一值得注意的不利發展是虐待和性騷擾決選書中的加強，本季度總是有其他的進展，但沒有任何意義或值得指出。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And I guess my follow-up, I'll stick to workers' comp.

我想我的後續行動是，我會堅持工人補償。

And you may have answered this in Rob's question.

您可能已經在羅布的問題中回答了這個問題。

But in the prepared remarks, I don't think you mentioned kind of any pricing changes quarter-over-quarter or trends on workers' comp.

但在準備好的發言中，我認為您沒有提到任何季度環比的價格變化或工人薪酬的趨勢。

So is it just fair to assume given its workers comp pricing is still a bit negative on real pricing?

那麼，考慮到其工人的薪酬定價仍然對實際定價有點負面，這樣的假設是否公平？

I would say, Mike, I would describe it as largely stable.

我想說，麥克，我認為它基本上是穩定的。

The pure renewal rate change is a little bit negative.

純粹的續訂率變化有點負面。

And with exposure, you get to something a little bit positive.

透過曝光，你會得到一些正面的東西。

And there's always some fluctuations quarter to quarter, but I think still through the way I'd describe it.

每個季度總是會有一些波動，但我認為仍然是透過我所描述的方式。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

I had a question just on the business insurance underlying loss ratio.

我有一個關於商業保險基本損失率的問題。

Greg, I heard you call out just earned rate coming in.

格雷格，我聽到你喊道剛進來的賺取率。

I guess I'm wondering, is there anything else in that 57.3% that's not sustainable or favorable mix or anything like that that's flattering the result?

我想我想知道，這 57.3% 中是否還有其他不可持續或不有利的組合或類似的東西使結果變得美好？

David, it's Dan.

大衛，我是丹。

I'll take that.

我會接受的。

So I guess the answer is not really.

所以我想答案並不是真的。

When we have something that we think you need to sort of call out as is on recurring, we tried to do it in prepared remarks.

當我們認為您需要重複某些內容時，我們會嘗試在準備好的評論中進行說明。

You heard Michael reference current year prior quarter adjustments benefiting the fourth quarter in auto and home.

您聽到邁克爾提到了今年上一季的調整，汽車和家居行業第四季度受益。

We didn't call anything out in BI because we didn't really think there was anything unusual to call out.

我們沒有在 BI 中指出任何內容，因為我們並不認為有任何異常情況需要指出。

So the benefit in the quarter is earned price, really terrific underlying at 57.4% and even within that, we did choose to add a little bit of IBNR to the casualty line, again, reflecting uncertainty in that line, not a big move.

因此，本季的收益是贏得價格，真正令人驚嘆的基礎利率為57.4%，即使在這個範圍內，我們也確實選擇在傷亡線中添加一點IBNR，這再次反映了該線的不確定性，而不是一個大的變動。

So a pretty clean jump-off point and really driven by benefit of earned pricing.

這是一個非常乾淨的起點，並且真正受到贏得定價的好處的驅動。

Got it.

知道了。

And then maybe just on that point, just adding more IBNR to some of those casualty lines and then maybe just looking in the decision to increase the reinsurance protection on the casualty book.

然後也許就在這一點上，只需在其中一些傷亡險種中添加更多 IBNR，然後可能只是考慮增加傷亡賬簿上的再保險保護的決定。

Could you just walk through sort of the thought process of getting the reinsurance and -- is it just sort of -- I mean, you guys are -- it seems like you guys are reacting sooner than many in the industry.

您能簡單介紹一下獲得再保險的思考過程嗎？

And is that just sort of added protection as you lean into growth?

這只是當你傾向於成長時的一種額外保護嗎？

Or I'd be interested in sort of the thought process there?

或者我會對那裡的思考過程感興趣？

David, let me start and then I'll turn it over to Dan if he had anything to add.

大衛，讓我開始，如果丹有什麼要補充的話，我會把它交給丹。

I would say the changes we made, we made because we could.

我想說的是，我們所做的改變是因為我們可以。

And every renewal of every reinsurance treaty, we take a look at our business.

每次續保再保險條約時，我們都會審視我們的業務。

We take a look at the reinsurance marketplace and make the best risk-reward decisions we could make.

我們檢視再保險市場，並做出我們所能做出的最佳風險報酬決策。

And so what we were able to achieve for the price we were able to achieve it, we thought made a lot of sense.

因此，我們能夠以我們能夠實現的價格實現這一目標，我們認為這是有意義的。

But I would describe ordinary course process and a terrific result.

但我會描述普通的課程過程和很棒的結果。

Brian Meredith, UBS Financial.

布萊恩‧梅瑞迪斯 (Brian Meredith)，瑞銀金融集團。

I'm just curious, looking at the BI results, the underlying combined ratio is as good as it's been in 20 years.

我只是好奇，看看 BI 結果，基本綜合比率是 20 年來最好的。

I'm just curious, in your thoughts, are you kind of sitting here at peak margins?

我只是好奇，在你看來，你是否正處於利潤高峰期？

Is there more room for improvement?

還有更多改進的空間嗎？

How should we kind of think about the margin return turning in the business, which are record?

我們該如何看待創紀錄的業務獲利報酬率？

Well, thanks for that, Brian.

嗯，謝謝你，布萊恩。

They are terrific margins, and we're very pleased with these margins.

它們的利潤率非常高，我們對這些利潤率非常滿意。

I'm not going to forecast the margins for you but what I'll tell you is we love the business that we're putting on the books, and we love the pricing.

我不會為您預測利潤率，但我要告訴您的是，我們喜歡我們記入帳簿的業務，而且我們喜歡定價。

We love the stability in the marketplace.

我們喜歡市場的穩定性。

We love the retention that we're seeing.

我們喜歡我們所看到的保留率。

And these -- you take a look at this RPC, which is near double digits, that's it's about the highest it's ever been over a long period of time.

你看一下這個 RPC，它接近兩位數，這大約是很長一段時間內的最高水平。

So market feels stable for us, and we feel good about the outlook, but I'm going to stop short of telling you what the direction is going to be.

因此，市場對我們來說是穩定的，我們對前景感覺良好，但我不會告訴你方向是什麼。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then maybe a little bit as a follow-up that I'm curious your comments and thoughts on the tort environment right now.

也許作為後續行動，我很好奇您現在對侵權環境的評論和想法。

I always appreciate your comments on it.

我始終感謝您對此的評論。

Anything that you're seeing are happening that maybe point to some improvement potentially going forward or vice versa?

您看到正在發生的任何事情可能表明未來可能會出現一些改進，反之亦然？

Yeah.

是的。

The torch environment is -- it definitely continues to be front and center in front of mind for us.

火炬環境無疑仍然是我們首要考慮的問題。

It's an environmental issue that we're all facing.

這是我們都面臨的環境問題。

Yes, from a public policy perspective, the insurance industry might be the tip of the spear, but this is really an industry for businesses and consumers.

是的，從公共政策的角度來看，保險業可能只是矛頭，但這確實是為企業和消費者服務的行業。

And I think there's a growing recognition of that.

我認為人們越來越認識到這一點。

It also has contributed to some very difficult insurance markets in a few states, and we've seen a couple of states take action to respond to that.

它也導致一些州的保險市場非常困難，我們已經看到一些州採取了應對措施。

And in a couple of other states, we've had some favorable development in terms of some legislation around third-party litigation financing disclosure, which we think is positive and hope is a trend, so continues to be front and center for us, and we continue to try to get at it.

在其他幾個州，我們在有關第三方訴訟融資披露的一些立法方面取得了一些有利的進展，我們認為這是積極的，希望成為一種趨勢，因此繼續成為我們的前沿和中心，並且我們將繼續努力實現這一目標。

Wes Carmichael, Autonomous Research.

韋斯·卡邁克爾，自主研究。

My first is on catastrophes in the 2025 plan.

我的第一個主題是 2025 年計畫中的災難。

I think you mentioned there's nothing in there related to California wildfires, but your full year assumption at 6.9 points, I think that's a little bit maybe below the last couple of years.

我想你提到其中沒有任何內容與加州野火有關，但你全年的假設為 6.9 點，我認為這可能比過去幾年低一點。

So could you maybe just help us with what's going into that planning assumption?

那麼您能否幫助我們了解該計劃假設的內容？

Sure.

當然。

Well, there's a lot of methodology and thought and frankly, judgment that goes into that number.

嗯，有很多方法論和想法，坦白說，還有很多判斷都融入這個數字。

And I think it would be premature to assume that what we've seen in the last couple of years that, that high watermark is a new normal going forward.

我認為現在就認為我們在過去幾年中所看到的高水位線是未來的新常態還為時過早。

But certainly, we take a look at that and incorporate into our thinking and we've waived the more recent years more heavily as we've come up with the cat plan.

但當然，我們會考慮這一點並將其納入我們的想法中，隨著我們提出貓計劃，我們已經放棄了最近幾年的更多措施。

So I think that 6.9 points on a point basis would cover the CAT losses in 7 out of the last 10 years or something like that.

因此，我認為每分 6.9 分可以彌補過去 10 年 7 年或類似情況的 CAT 損失。

So we've got a bias toward the high end of recent experience.

所以我們偏向近期體驗的高端。

But again, we think it would be a little premature to assume that this high watermark is any normal.

但我們再次認為，假設這個高水位是正常的還為時過早。

Got it.

知道了。

And my follow-up on reserve development in BI, I know you talked about favorability in workers' comp.

我對 BI 儲備金發展的後續行動，我知道您談到了工人補償的優惠。

Are you able to size the gross amount of favorable development for us in the fourth quarter?

您能否估算一下第四季對我們有利的發展總量？

Yeah, Wes, it's Dan.

是的，韋斯，我是丹。

So we were -- you could think about that as comp in the fourth quarter being in the ballpark of around $250 million of good news.

因此，您可以將其視為第四季度約 2.5 億美元的好消息。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

亞歷克斯·斯科特，巴克萊銀行。

First one I have is on the personal lines business.

我的第一個業務是個人業務。

I appreciate there's a big event going on in homeowners right now, but just the underlying results this quarter kind of coming along faster than I would have guessed.

我很高興房主們現在正在發生一件大事，但本季的基本結果比我想像的要快。

I'm wondering if it changes your approach to the market and just how competitive you want to be on price and desire to grow, et cetera?

我想知道它是否會改變您進入市場的方式以及您希望在價格和成長願望等方面具有多大的競爭力？

Sure, Alex.

當然，亞歷克斯。

It's Michael.

是麥可。

I would say, not really.

我想說，不是真的。

As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, if you look at the full year result at about a 94 and you take out PYD, you get to a 98 that is not delivering target returns in the property line of business.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，如果您查看全年業績約為 94，然後剔除 PYD，您將獲得 98，這並沒有實現房地產業務的目標回報。

We also, throughout the year, have commented on favorable frequency in property, offset by a bit of persistent severity.

我們還在全年中對房地產市場的有利頻率進行了評論，但被一些持續的嚴重性所抵消。

Hard to know how much of that favorable frequency is going to persist.

很難知道這種有利的頻率有多少會持續下去。

And so that's really why I said we still have work to do in property and our focus on property really remains on improving profitability and generating consistent target returns.

因此，這就是為什麼我說我們在房地產領域仍有工作要做，我們對房地產的關注實際上仍然是提高盈利能力和產生一致的目標回報。

Got it.

知道了。

As a follow-up, I wanted to see if I could ask one on the ongoing wildfires in California.

作為後續行動，我想看看是否可以向某人詢問加州正在發生的野火。

Any additional color you can help us with regarding your exposure maybe to Pacific Palisades in particular, the way you approach the more wildfire prone areas of that market, anything on additional living expenses that might just help us well, I know you're not willing to quantify at this point, that totally makes sense.

您可以幫助我們的任何其他顏色，尤其是您對太平洋柵欄的暴露程度，您接近該市場更容易發生野火的地區的方式，任何可能對我們有幫助的額外生活費用，我知道您不願意在這一點上進行量化，這是完全合理的。

Like anything that could kind of help us understand.

就像任何可以幫助我們理解的事情一樣。

Alex, I just don't think there's a lot we can share there.

亞歷克斯，我只是認為我們沒有太多可以分享的東西。

We have, and I think Michael shared this recently we've taken steps to thoughtfully manage our exposure in wildfire prone areas, others have two.

我們已經採取了措施，我想邁克爾最近也分享了這一點，我們已經採取措施深思熟慮地管理我們在野火易發地區的風險，其他人有兩個。

So we don't know what that's done to our relative market share in some of these places.

所以我們不知道這對我們在其中一些地方的相對市場份額有何影響。

So I don't know if there's any real color that we can give beyond what we've already shared.

所以我不知道除了我們已經分享的內容之外，我們是否還能提供任何真正的色彩。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

My first question, I just want to go back to the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio.

我的第一個問題，我只想回到商業保險的基本損失率。

So you guys saw in the third quarter, right, there was 180 basis points of year-over-year improvement.

所以你們在第三季看到了，對吧，年比改善了 180 個基點。

And you said, right, that there was no real noise to call out.

你說，是的，沒有真正的噪音可以喊出來。

So that was kind of a good run rate.

所以這是一個很好的運行率。

Now it seems like 60 basis points this quarter is a run rate.

現在看來，本季 60 個基點是運轉利率。

I know you guys said that you -- there was some conservatism put into the casualty picks, but I believe that was the case in every quarter this year.

我知道你們說過，在傷兵選擇中存在一些保守主義，但我相信今年每季都是如此。

So what was the change from the 180 to the 60 that now seems like run rate in BI from Q3 to Q4 on the underlying loss ratio?

那麼，從第 3 季到第 4 季度，BI 的基本損失率運作率從 180 到 60 有何變化？

Elyse, it's Dan.

伊麗絲，是丹。

So when we're talking about adjustments to jump off point of run rate, Again, we really think it's important to look at the business comparing the fourth quarter to the fourth quarter, the third quarter to the third quarter, not either the sequential quarter or the sequential margin improvement.

因此，當我們談論對運行率起點的調整時，我們確實認為重要的是查看第四季度與第四季度、第三季度與第三季度的業務比較，而不是連續季度的比較或連續利潤率改善。

So we're trying to give you a jump-off points of was there anything particularly unusual in a quarter that you think about that as your model beginning point for the next year's quarter that you'd call out?

因此，我們試圖為您提供一個起點，即在您認為的下一個季度的模型起點的季度中是否有任何特別不尋常的事情？

It's not to say that there's zero besides pricing.

這並不是說除了定價之外就是零。

There are -- as we've said in each of the quarters this year, there's a number of puts and takes each year, but none of them were individually that significant and so we're down to a point of we're inside of a point of change, and we're trying to say, is there anything in there that really seems like it's abnormal and should be adjusted or are we thinking about it as not a quote-unquote clean jump-off point, and that's the color we're trying to give you there, not to the basis point of how much is the improvement going to be in one quarter versus the next.

正如我們在今年每個季度所說的那樣，每年都有很多看跌期權和看跌期權，但它們中沒有一個單獨那麼重要，所以我們已經陷入了這樣的境地：一個變化點，我們想說的是，其中是否有任何東西看起來確實不正常，應該進行調整，或者我們是否認為它不是一個引用-不引用的干淨的起點，這就是顏色我們試圖向您提供這一點，而不是一個季度與下一個季度相比會有多少改進的基點。

And then my follow-up, I just wanted to go back to the California fires for a second.

然後我的後續行動，我只想回到加州大火。

We obviously can look at statewide share market share.

我們顯然可以看看全州股票市場份額。

Is there any commentary, I guess, you would give relative to statewide share for travelers relative to potential share in the impacted areas?

我想，您是否會對全州範圍內的旅行者所佔份額與受影響地區的潛在份額進行評論？

And my second question, Dan, on the reinsurance coverage, right, that's an aggregate cover, right?

我的第二個問題，丹，關於再保險承保範圍，對吧，這是一個總承保範圍，對吧？

So I know there's like a $4 billion retention and then there's deductibles.

所以我知道大約有 40 億美元的保留金，還有免賠額。

But if the fire is a large event, this does earmark your cats to a certain degree, right, for the full year.

但如果火災是一個大事件，這確實會在一定程度上為你的貓指定全年的時間。

I just want to make sure I'm thinking about that correctly.

我只是想確保我的想法是正確的。

Let me start on your market share question, and then I'll turn it over to Dan for the reinsurance question.

讓我從您的市場份額問題開始，然後我將把它交給 Dan 來解決再保險問題。

So you could take some estimate of market share and apply it to an estimate of industry loss, and that would give you what I would describe as a point of reference.

因此，您可以對市場份額進行一些估計，並將其應用於對行業損失的估計，這將為您提供我所描述的參考點。

So pretty blunt instrument, though, for reasons.

不過，這是相當生硬的工具，這是有原因的。

First, it's obviously pretty sensitive to whatever estimate you have of insured losses for the industry, and that's going to develop over time.

首先，它顯然對您對該行業保險損失的估計非常敏感，而且這種情況會隨著時間的推移而發展。

And second, when it comes to market share, the publicly available market share is dated information.

其次，當談到市場佔有率時，公開的市場佔有率是過時的資訊。

It doesn't reflect actions we or others have taken to manage exposure and it doesn't reflect any differences that might exist between local market share and statewide market share.

它不反映我們或其他人為管理風險所採取的行動，也不反映本地市場份額和全州市場份額之間可能存在的任何差異。

So those are the cautions I'd give you in applying that.

這些是我在應用它時給你的警告。

But it's a reference point, I get it.

但這是一個參考點，我明白。

And then, Elyse, with regard to the 2025 cat treaty, you're right, one of the, we think, great features of our treaty is that it is an aggregate cover.

然後，Elyse，關於 2025 年巨災條約，你是對的，我們認為，我們條約的一大特點是它是一個總體覆蓋。

So while I wouldn't expect recoveries under the treaty from the California wildfires to the degree that they impact first quarter earnings, and it's a big number.

因此，雖然我預計根據該條約，加州野火的恢復不會達到影響第一季收益的程度，但這是一個很大的數字。

There's $100 million per event deductible as I said in my prepared remarks and as you can see on the chart.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說以及您在圖表中看到的那樣，每次活動的免賠額為 1 億美元。

But yes, this will accumulate towards the $4 billion retention, which if there's a very active second quarter for cats, or a very active third quarter for cats, it's possible that we'd be talking about recoveries under the treaty.

但是，是的，這將累積到 40 億美元的保留量，如果貓的第二季度非常活躍，或者貓的第三季度非常活躍，我們可能會討論條約下的回收。

Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

亞倫·基納爾，傑弗里斯。

Just going to the topic of the data of the California wildfires.

剛進入加州山火數據的主題。

Can you maybe talk about how, if at all, they would impact the company's appetite for Home and Property business in the state.

您能否談談它們將如何（如果有的話）影響公司對該州家居和房地產業務的興趣。

Would you look to further prune exposure to wildfires?

您會考慮進一步減少野火的曝曬嗎？

Or do you believe that the actions that you've taken to date positioning well from that perspective?

或者您認為您迄今為止所採取的行動從這個角度來看是正確的嗎？

I'll start and then Michael, I'll turn it over to you.

我先開始，然後邁克爾，我會把它交給你。

I think it's going to depend on how the market reacts to it.

我認為這將取決於市場對此的反應。

The insurance market was challenged going into this.

保險市場因此受到挑戰。

There were some recently adopted reforms, and I think that was a good start.

最近採取了一些改革，我認為這是一個好的開始。

It's possible that this is going to be a catalyst for further and meaningful reforms.

這有可能成為進一步且有意義的改革的催化劑。

So I think we're just going to wait and need to see how that shakes out before we make any decisions.

所以我認為我們只能等待，看看情況如何，然後再做出任何決定。

Yes.

是的。

And the only thing I would add to that, Yaron, is we've been shrinking in California coming into the event.

Yaron，我唯一要補充的是，我們在參加這項活動的加州的規模有所縮小。

We have a rate increase for property on file with the department as we speak, which clearly doesn't include the losses from the California wildfires.

就在我們說話的時候，我們已經對部門備案的財產進行了上調，這顯然不包括加州野火造成的損失。

So all of that will certainly feed into our assessment of actions we need to take going forward.

因此，所有這些肯定會影響我們對未來需要採取的行動的評估。

Makes sense.

有道理。

And then, Michael, maybe another question for you.

然後，邁克爾，也許還有一個問題要問你。

It sounds like your appetite for auto is personal auto is growing, you're open for business in a growing number of states.

聽起來您對汽車和個人汽車的興趣正在增長，您在越來越多的州開展業務。

At the same time, I'm sure you're seeing the same headlines we are on tariffs and the like.

同時，我確信您會看到與我們相同的關於關稅等問題的頭條新聞。

Is your appetite for auto taking into account the potential for tariffs?

您對汽車的興趣是否考慮了關稅的可能性？

Or is that something that you'll react to if and when we actually see those put in place?

或者當我們真正看到這些措施到位時，您會對此做出反應嗎？

Sure.

當然。

It's a great question, and I would lean more towards the latter in terms of your question.

這是一個很好的問題，就你的問題而言，我更傾向於後者。

I think certainly, it's hypothetical, it's hard to predict.

我認為當然，這是假設的，很難預測。

We don't know which countries we don't know what amounts and where auto parts and autos come from.

我們不知道哪些國家的汽車零件和汽車的數量以及來自哪裡。

It depends a lot on which countries you're talking about.

這在很大程度上取決於您所談論的是哪些國家。

And what level those tariffs are at.

這些關稅處於什麼水準。

And so as opposed to trying to predict it, we're looking at our prospective view of rate adequacy.

因此，我們不是試圖預測它，而是著眼於對利率充足性的前瞻性看法。

We feel great about the margins in the business today.

我們對當今業務的利潤率感到非常滿意。

We're actively pursuing Auto growth and will continue to do so.

我們正在積極追求汽車產業的成長，並將繼續這樣做。

And then we'll reflect any changes in our pricing when and if we know what they are and then factor that into the calculus at that point in time.

然後，當我們知道定價的任何變化時，我們將反映它們是什麼，然後將其納入當時的計算中。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克，美國銀行。

I hate asking more wildfire questions.

我討厭問更多野火問題。

I understand you don't know, but education very valuable to us.

我知道你不知道，但教育對我們來說非常有價值。

Can you tell us the degree to which some Travelers' policies might exclude fire or is the Travelers' policy, one that has not been put anyone to the fair plan and it has comprehensive coverage?

您能否告訴我們，某些旅行者保單在多大程度上可以排除火災，或者旅行者保單沒有將任何人納入公平計劃，並且具有全面的承保範圍？

Sure, Josh.

當然，喬許。

It's Michael.

是麥可。

So we write two types of property policies in California.

因此，我們在加州制定了兩種類型的財產保單。

We write a standard Quantum Home 2.0 property policy that does include coverage for a wildfire in areas where we do not have an appetite to write policies that cover fire.

我們制定了標準的 Quantum Home 2.0 財產保單，其中確實包括對我們沒有興趣制定火災保險的地區的野火保險。

We do write what we call a DIC policy, which you can think of as a policy that excludes losses from fire and wildfires.

我們確實制定了所謂的 DIC 保單，您可以將其視為排除火災和野火造成的損失的保單。

Some customers pair that with a fair plan policy because then they have the Travelers' clink service, they have the Travelers' coverage for non-fire losses.

一些客戶將其與公平的計劃保單結合起來，因為這樣他們就可以享受旅行者的叮叮服務，他們可以享受旅行者的非火災損失保險。

And so we do have both types of policies in force in the state.

因此，我們州確實實行了兩種類型的政策。

And just one other question, and I'm not trying to hold number on you, just trying to be smart.

還有一個問題，我並不是想掌握你的狀況，只是想表現得聰明一點。

What is Travelers appetite for $5 million homes in the state of California or whatnot?

旅客對加州或其他州價值 500 萬美元的房屋有何興趣？

I don't think Travelers is targeting high net worth individuals, but California is an expensive real estate market.

我不認為旅行者的目標人群是高淨值人士，但加州是一個昂貴的房地產市場。

Can you just talk about appetite and what are the normal Travelers target home in that state?

您能談談胃口以及旅行者在該州的正常目標住宅是什麼嗎？

Yeah, sure, Josh.

是的，當然，喬許。

It's Michael again, I would say our appetite for and our exposure to $5 million homes in California is very limited.

又是邁克爾，我想說我們對加州價值 500 萬美元的房屋的興趣和敞口非常有限。

As you know and we've talked about in the past, our appetite really is middle market and mass affluent business.

如您所知，我們過去也談過，我們的興趣實際上是中端市場和大眾富裕業務。

I would say when you get to $5 million homes, we would consider that really more high net worth business, and we're not a significant player in that market.

我想說，當你購買 500 萬美元的房屋時，我們會考慮真正更高的淨值業務，而我們並不是該市場的重要參與者。

We have time for one more question and that question comes from the line of Michael Phillips at Oppenheimer.

我們還有時間再問一個問題，這個問題來自奧本海默的麥可·菲利普斯。

Wonder if you could pull back the growth in commercial auto mid-teens right now.

想知道您現在是否可以抑製商用汽車的成長。

How much of that is rate?

其中利率是多少？

How much of that is PIF?

其中 PIF 佔多少？

And then maybe any comments on commercial auto that you're seeing on frequency and severity would be appreciated.

然後，也許您看到的有關商用汽車的頻率和嚴重程度的任何評論都會受到讚賞。

Michael, I'm not going to get into the details on loss trend on that, but give you a little bit of color on the top line delta that you asked about.

邁克爾，我不會詳細介紹損失趨勢，但會為您提供有關您詢問的頂線增量的一些資訊。

The thrust of that is renewal premium change, so really is rate and exposure that's driving that top-line growth.

其推動力是續保保費的變化，因此推動收入成長的確實是費率和風險敞口。

Okay.

好的。

And then you talked a bit about Personal Auto.

然後你談到了個人汽車。

I guess we're kind of hearing a bit of a mixed bag between different companies on where they are with rates and how much they want to grow.

我想我們聽到了不同公司之間關於他們的利率水平以及他們想要增長多少的不同意見。

Can you just -- at a higher level, can you talk about what you're seeing this quarter versus maybe the last couple of quarters and certainly last quarter in the competitive environment in Personal Auto?

您能否在更高的層面上談談您在本季度所看到的情況，以及與過去幾個季度，當然還有上個季度在個人汽車競爭環境中所看到的情況？

Sure, Michael.

當然，邁克爾。

It's Michael here.

我是麥可。

I would say the competitive environment last quarter versus this quarter is fairly consistent.

我想說上個季度的競爭環境與本季相當一致。

And I would say our observations on what's happening in the marketplace are fairly consistent.

我想說，我們對市場上發生的事情的觀察是相當一致的。

I think the good news is that we continue to make progress.

我認為好消息是我們不斷取得進展。

As we pursue auto growth, new business was up 6% relative to the fourth quarter of last year.

隨著我們追求汽車成長，新業務較去年第四季成長了 6%。

This quarter's fourth quarter new business is actually a record for fourth quarter new business for us in auto.

這個季度第四季度的新業務實際上是我們汽車行業第四季度新業務的記錄。

And as I mentioned, in states that aren't constrained by our property actions, we're growing both new policies and new business premium in aggregate.

正如我所提到的，在不受我們房地產行動限制的州，我們正在整體上增加新政策和新業務保費。

So we're encouraged by the progress and I would say the marketplace has remained relatively consistent over the last couple of quarters.

因此，我們對所取得的進展感到鼓舞，我想說市場在過去幾季中保持相對穩定。

And that concludes our Q&A session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the conference back over to Abbe for closing remarks.

現在我將把會議轉回阿貝致閉幕詞。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us.

謝謝大家加入我們。

We appreciate your time.

我們感謝您的寶貴時間。

And as always if there's any follow-up, please reach out directly to Investor Relations.

一如既往，如果有任何後續行動，請直接聯繫投資者關係部門。

We hope you have a good day, and thanks again.

我們希望您度過愉快的一天，再次感謝。

And this concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。