旅行家集團 (TRV) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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Thanks or Thanks. Thanks. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the third quarter results teleconference for Travelers. We actually you hold all questions until the completion of formal remarks, after which time we'll be given instructions for the question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on October seventh, 2024. At this time, I would like turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

謝謝還是謝謝。 謝謝。 早安，女士們先生們。 歡迎參加旅客第三季業績電話會議。 實際上，我們會保留所有問題，直到正式發言完成為止，之後我們將收到有關問答環節的指示。 提醒一下，本次會議的錄製時間為 2024 年 10 月 7 日。 戈德斯坦女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our third quarter 2024 results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website, travelers.com under the Investors section. Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Fry, Chief Financial Officer, and our three segment presidents, Greg Toczydlowski, business insurance of plank of Bond & Specialty Insurance, and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance.

謝謝。 早安，歡迎參加 Travelers 對我們 2024 年第三季業績的討論。 今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務補充和網路廣播簡報。 所有這些資料都可以在我們的網站travelers.com 的投資者部分找到。 今天發言的是董事長兼執行長 Alan Schnitzer；財務長 Dan Fry 以及我們的三個分部總裁：Bond & Specialty Insurance 商業保險部 Greg Toczydlowski 以及個人保險部 Michael Klein。

They will discuss the financial result of our business and the current market environment. they will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks and then we will take your questions. Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements.

他們將討論我們業務的財務表現和當前的市場環境。他們將在閱讀準備好的評論時參考網路廣播演示，然後我們將回答您的問題。 在我將電話轉給艾倫之前，我想提請您注意網路廣播簡報末尾的解釋性說明。 我們今天的演示包括前瞻性陳述。

The Company cautions investors that any forward looking statements involves risks and uncertainties is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K file with the SEC.

該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，並不能保證未來表現。 由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。 這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 文件中的前瞻性陳述中進行了描述。

We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Also in our prepared remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in our investor section on our website.

我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。 此外，在我們準備好的評論或對問題的答覆中，我們可能會提到一些非公認會計準則財務指標。 調節表包含在我們最近的收益新聞稿、財務補充資料和我們網站投資者部分提供的其他資料中。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

現在我想把電話轉給艾倫‧施尼策。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'd like to start by acknowledging the devastation caused by recent hurricanes. Helene and both of these were powerful storms and our hearts go out to all those who have been impacted. Of course, we send our thoughts and prayers, but we're also selling claim resources from our national catastrophe center and Hartford. We're managing the deployment of hundreds of travelers claim professionals along with mobile claim offices and quick response vehicles.

謝謝你，阿貝。 大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。 首先，我要承認最近的颶風造成的破壞。 海倫和這兩場風暴都是強大的風暴，我們的心與所有受到影響的人同在。 當然，我們會表達我們的想法和祈禱，但我們也出售來自我們的國家災難中心和哈特福德的索賠資源。 我們正在管理數百名旅客理賠專業人員以及行動理賠辦公室和快速反應車輛的部署。

We've activated thousands more cross trained colleagues across the country to support our local response. Our catastrophe response model enables us to adjust virtually every claim with the Travelers claim professional and without resorting to independent adjusters that results in a better outcome for our customers and distribution partners.

我們在全國範圍內動員了數千名接受過交叉培訓的同事來支持我們當地的應對措施。 我們的災難應變模型使我們能夠與旅行者索賠專業人士一起調整幾乎每項索賠，而無需求助於獨立的理賠員，從而為我們的客戶和分銷合作夥伴帶來更好的結果。

Thanks to these efforts in the advanced analytics and geospatial tools that we leverage. We are on track this year to meet our objective of resolving 90% of our claims from natural catastrophes than 30 days, that can make the difference between whether a customer of ours is able to celebrate the holiday season in their living room instead of a hotel room.

感謝我們在高級分析和地理空間工具所做的努力。 今年我們預計將實現 30 天內解決 90% 自然災害索賠的目標，這將決定我們的客戶是否能夠在客廳而不是酒店慶祝節日房間。

I'd also like to express my deep gratitude to our claim organization. The entire team tirelessly delivers exceptional technical expertise and support to our customers, demonstrating day-in and day-out. The value of the Travelers promise.

我還要向我們的理賠組織表達深深的謝意。 整個團隊孜孜不倦地為我們的客戶提供卓越的技術專業知識和支持，日復一日地進行演示。 旅行者承諾的價值。

Turning to results, we are very pleased to have generated outstanding top and bottom line results this quarter. Excellent underlying underwriting income, higher net investment income and net favorable prior-year reserve development, all contributed to core income of more than $1.2 billion or $5.24 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 16.6%.

談到結果，我們很高興本季取得了出色的營收和利潤表現。 出色的基礎承保收入、較高的淨投資收入和有利的上年淨準備金開發，所有這些都促成了超過12 億美元的核心收入或稀釋後每股5.24 美元的核心收入，核心股本回報率為16.6%。

Underlying underwriting income of $1.5 billion p retax was up 73% over the prior year quarter, driven by record net earned premiums of $10.7 billion, up 10% and an underlying combined ratio that improved five points to an excellent 85.6%. Both underwriting income and underlying margins were strong in all three of our segments.

稅前基礎核保收入為 15 億美元，較去年同期成長 73%，這得益於創紀錄的 107 億美元淨賺保費增加 10%，以及基礎綜合成本率提高了 5 個百分點，達到 85.6%。 我們所有三個細分市場的承保收入和基本利潤率都很高。

The underlying combined ratio in our Business Insurance segment improved nearly 2 points to an excellent 87.9%, and our Bond & Specialty business delivered a very strong underlying combined ratio of 85.6%. The underlying combined ratio in personal insurance improved 11.5 points to have an exceptional 82.7%.

我們的商業保險部門的基礎綜合成本率提高了近 2 個百分點，達到 87.9%，而我們的債券和特種業務的基礎綜合成本率非常強勁，達到 85.6%。 個人保險的基本綜合成本率提高了 11.5 個百分點，達到 82.7%。

These terrific segment results contributed to our reported consolidated combined ratio that improved nearly 8 points to 93.2%. Turning to investments, o ur high-quality investment portfolio continued to perform well with after-tax net investment income up 16% to $742 million, driven by strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio and higher returns were non-fixed income portfolio.

這些出色的分部表現使我們報告的綜合綜合成本率提高了近 8 個百分點，達到 93.2%。 在投資方面，我們的高品質投資組合持續表現良好，稅後淨投資收入成長16%，達到7.42 億美元，這主要得益於我們不斷增長的固定收益投資組合帶來的強勁而可靠的回報，以及非固定收益投資組合的較高回報。

Our underwriting and investment results, together with our strong balance sheet, enabled us to grow adjusted book value per share by 4% during the quarter, and that's after returning $496 million of excess capital to shareholders and continuing to make important investments in our business as we notched another quarter of successful execution on a number of important strategic initiatives.

我們的承銷和投資業績，加上我們強勁的資產負債表，使我們在本季度調整後每股帳面價值增長了4%，這是在向股東返還4.96 億美元的超額資本並繼續對我們的業務進行重要投資之後實現的。

Turning to the top line, we grew net written premiums by 8% to $11.3 billion. The s trong value proposition that we offer to our customers and distribution partners, along with outstanding execution by our colleagues in the field contributed towards the top line success.

說到營收，我們的淨承保保費增加了 8%，達到 113 億美元。我們為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的強大價值主張，以及我們在該領域的同事的出色執行力，為我們的營收成功做出了貢獻。

In Business Insurance, we grew net written premiums by 9% to more than $5.5 billion. Renewal premium change in the segment remained very strong, increasing to 10.5%, driven by strong contributions from the liability coverages. Renewal rate change accelerated to 7.3% in the quarter and was steady or higher in every product line.

在商業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增加了 9%，達到超過 55 億美元。 由於責任險的強勁貢獻，該領域的續保保費變化仍然非常強勁，增至 10.5%。 本季續訂率變化加速至 7.3%，各產品線保持穩定或更高。

Even with the firm pricing environment, r etention in the segment ticked up to 86%. The combination of strong pricing and excellent retention reflects our deliberate execution and a marketplace that is reacting in a generally disciplined way to the headwinds of social and economic inflation.

即使定價環境堅挺，該細分市場的保留率仍上升至 86%。 強勁的定價和出色的保留率相結合，反映了我們深思熟慮的執行力，以及市場對社會和經濟通貨膨脹的逆風做出普遍紀律性反應的市場。

In Bond & Specialty Insurance, we grew net written premiums by 7% to a record $1.1 billion, driven by excellent retention of 90% i n our high quality management liability business and strong production and our market-leading surety business. We grew share in premiums by 7% from a very strong result in the prior year quarter.

在債券和專業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增長了7%，達到創紀錄的11 億美元，這得益於我們高品質管理責任業務90% 的出色保留率以及強大的生產能力和市場領先的擔保業務。與去年同期的強勁業績相比，我們的保費份額增長了 7%。

We are very pleased to have generated terrific production results across our commercial segments for margins continue to be attractive. That includes our E and S offerings. We've grown net written premiums by 13% year to date.

我們很高興在我們的商業領域取得了出色的生產成果，利潤率繼續具有吸引力。 這包括我們的 E 和 S 產品。 今年迄今為止，我們的淨承保保費增加了 13%。

In Personal Insurance, we were pleased to grow net written premiums by 7%, driven by strong renewal price change in both auto and home. The strong production results across our three segments are a reflection of our view that in order to achieve our objective of industry leading returns over time, we need an effective strategy to grow profitably over time. As we've shared before, we seek to job making sure that we offer the products, services and experiences that our customers want to buy and our distribution partners want to sell.

在個人保險方面，受汽車和房屋續保價格強勁變化的推動，我們很高興淨承保保費增長了 7%。 我們三個部門的強勁生產業績反映了我們的觀點：為了實現長期產業領先回報的目標，我們需要一個有效的策略來隨著時間的推移實現獲利成長。 正如我們之前所分享的，我們致力於確保我們提供客戶想要購買、分銷合作夥伴想要銷售的產品、服務和體驗。

Also central to our growth strategy is our very granular approach to risk selection, underwriting and pricing, which we've discussed many times. As a result of that approach and investments we've made over decades and leading data and analytics, o ur growth in insured exposures correlates to returns.

我們成長策略的另一個核心是我們非常精細的風險選擇、核保和定價方法，我們已經對此進行了多次討論。 由於我們幾十年來進行的這種方法和投資以及領先的數據和分析，我們保險風險的成長與回報有關。

In other the words, generally speaking, the more attractive returns in the business, the more we've been growing insured exposures in that business, all of which is to say travelers, unique combination of franchise value and execution fields, very effective capital deployment and a high-quality, profitable growth. The numbers speak for themselves.

換句話說，一般來說，業務回報越有吸引力，我們在該業務中的保險風險敞口就越多，所有這些都可以說是旅行者、特許經營價值和執行領域的獨特組合、非常有效的資本部署以及高品質、獲利性的成長。 數字不言而喻。

Over the last four years, we've grown our premium base by more than $13 billion, nearly a 50% increase while simultaneously improving our underwriting margins. The result is that we've more than doubled our underlying underwriting income and increased our total underwriting income by more than 80%.

在過去四年中，我們的保費基礎增加了超過 130 億美元，成長了近 50%，同時提高了我們的承保利潤。 結果是我們的基礎承保收入增加了一倍以上，總承保收入增加了 80% 以上。

The combination of strong underwriting income and the reliable investment income from our substantial and growing investment portfolio makes for a powerful earnings engine. That's what's driving our strong results this quarter and year to date. And that's what's driving our core return on equity of 15.9% over the last 12 months. And that's what gives us great confidence in the outlook for our business into 2025 and beyond.

強勁的承保收入和來自我們龐大且不斷增長的投資組合的可靠投資收入相結合，形成了強大的獲利引擎。 這就是推動我們本季和今年迄今取得強勁業績的原因。 這就是我們過去 12 個月核心股本回報率達到 15.9% 的原因。 這讓我們對 2025 年及以後的業務前景充滿信心。

With that, please turn the call over to Dan.

請將電話轉給 Dan。

Thank you, Alan. I'm pleased to provide some additional color on an exceptionally strong quarter. Core income for the third quarter was $1.2 billion and core return on equity was 16.6% as we delivered another quarter of excellent underlying underwriting results.

謝謝你，艾倫。 我很高興為這個異常強勁的季度提供一些額外的色彩。 第三季核心營收為 12 億美元，核心股本回報率為 16.6%，我們又一個季度取得了出色的基礎承保業績。

Net favorable prior-year reserve development and strong investment income. We're pleased to have once again generated record levels of earned premium this quarter and an excellent combined ratio of 93.2%, an improvement of nearly 8 points.

上年淨儲備開發有利，投資收益強勁。 我們很高興本季再次創造創紀錄水準的賺取保費和 93.2% 的出色綜合成本率，提高了近 8 個百分點。

Inside of that, our underlying combined ratio improved [5 full points] from last year's strong results. This combination of premium growth in underlying margin improvement led to our best ever underlying underwriting gain of $1.2 billion after tax of $503 million or 74% from the prior year quarter.

其中，我們的基礎綜合成本率比去年的強勁業績有所提升 [5 個滿分]。 保費成長與基礎利潤率改善相結合，使我們實現了有史以來最好的基礎承保收益，稅後收益達 12 億美元，達 5.03 億美元，較上年同期增長 74%。

The expense ratio for the third quarter was 28.4% and reflects the benefits of our continued focus on productivity and efficiency, coupled with strong top line growth. That brings the year-to-date expense ratio to 28.6%, in line with our expectations.

第三季的費用率為 28.4%，反映了我們持續專注於生產力和效率以及強勁的收入成長所帶來的好處。 這使得年初至今的費用比率達到 28.6%，符合我們的預期。

Our third quarter results include $939 million of pretax catastrophe losses, more than half of which relates to hurricane Helene, a devastating storm which made landfall in the last few days of the quarter. For travelers, t he financial impact of Helene was greater in Georgia and the Carolinas and Florida.

我們第三季的業績包括 9.39 億美元的稅前巨災損失，其中一半以上與颶風海倫有關，這是一場在本季最後幾天登陸的毀滅性風暴。 對於旅行者來說，海倫對喬治亞州、卡羅來納州和佛羅裡達州的經濟影響更大。

Turning to prior year reserve development, we had total net favorable development of $126 million pretax in Business Insurance. Asbestos review resulted in a charge of $242 million. Excess Vestas Business Insurance had net favorable PYD of $151 million, driven by favorability in workers' comp and Bond & Specialty net favorable PYD of $36 million was driven by another quarter of better than expected results and Fidelity and Surety.

就上一年度的準備金發展而言，我們在商業保險方面的稅前淨有利發展總額為 1.26 億美元。 石棉審查導致收取 2.42 億美元的費用。 超額維斯塔斯商業保險的淨有利PYD 為1.51 億美元，主要受到工人補償的青睞，而Bond & Specialty 的淨有利PYD 為3,600 萬美元，這是由於又一個季度好於預期的業績以及Fidelity and Surety 的推動。

Personal insurance at $181 million of net favorable PYD with favorability in both home and auto. After-tax net investment income of $742 million was up 16% from the prior year quarter. Fixed maturity NII was again higher than the prior year quarter and in line with our previously shared outlook, reflecting the benefit of both higher average yields and significant growth in the portfolio.

個人保險淨優惠 PYD 為 1.81 億美元，在家庭和汽車領域享有優惠。稅後淨投資收益為 7.42 億美元，比去年同期成長 16%。 固定期限NII再次高於去年同期，與我們先前的預期一致，反映出平均殖利率上升和投資組合顯著成長的好處。

Returns in the non-fixed income portfolio were also above the prior year quarter. In terms of our outlook for fixed income NII including earnings from short term securities, we now expect approximately $700 million after-tax for the fourth quarter.

非固定收益投資組合的報酬率也高於去年同期。 就我們對固定收益NII（包括短期證券收益）的展望而言，我們目前預計第四季度稅後收入約為7億美元。

And for 2025, we expect approximately $2.9 billion after-tax, our highest level ever beginning with approximately $700 million in the first quarter of 2025 and growing to approximately $760 million for the fourth quarter.

對於 2025 年，我們預計稅後約為 29 億美元，這是我們有史以來的最高水平，2025 年第一季約為 7 億美元，第四季將成長至約 7.6 億美元。

Turning to capital management, we generated our strongest ever level of quarterly operating cash flows at $3.9 billion, bringing the year to date figure above $7 billion. Also our strongest ever September year to date results. Interest rates decreased during the quarter a nd as a result, our net unrealized investment loss decreased from $4 billion after tax at June 30 to $2.1 billion after tax at September 30th.

在資本管理方面，我們創造了有史以來最強勁的季度營運現金流，達到 39 億美元，使今年迄今的數字超過 70 億美元。 這也是我們今年迄今最強勁的 9 月業績。 本季利率下降，因此，我們的未實現淨投資損失從 6 月 30 日的稅後 40 億美元減少到 9 月 30 日的稅後 21 億美元。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $131.30 at quarter end, up 7% from year end and up 13% from a year ago. We returned $496 million of excess capital to our shareholders this quarter comprising share repurchases of $253 million and dividends of $243 million.

季末調整後每股帳面價值（不包括未實現的淨投資損益）為 131.30 美元，較年末成長 7%，較去年同期成長 13%。 本季度，我們向股東返還了 4.96 億美元的超額資本，其中包括 2.53 億美元的股票回購和 2.43 億美元的股息。

We have approximately $5.3 billion of capacity remaining under the share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors. While it obviously did not impact our third quarter results, let me make a quick comment on hurricane Milton. It's still early days in terms of assessing our ultimate losses, but at this point we have a preliminary range of between $75 million and $175 million of pretax losses n et reinsurance.

根據董事會的股票回購授權，我們剩餘約 53 億美元的產能。 雖然它顯然沒有影響我們第三季的業績，但讓我對颶風米爾頓進行快速評論。 現在評估我們的最終損失還為時過早，但目前我們的稅前淨再保險損失初步範圍在 7,500 萬美元到 1.75 億美元之間。

To sum things up, our third quarter and year to date results illustrate the fundamental earnings power that has resulted from our multiyear focus on growth at attractive margins and our rock-solid balance sheet. In addition to best ever levels of net written premium and net earned premium. Our diversified portfolio of businesses delivered a terrific underwriting results, thanks to our best ever underlying combined ratio, clearly demonstrating that we are positioned for success even during periods of weather volatility like we have the industry have experience.

總而言之，我們第三季和今年迄今的業績說明了我們多年來專注於有吸引力的利潤率成長和堅如磐石的資產負債表帶來的基本獲利能力。 除了有史以來最好的淨承保保費和淨賺取保費水平。 由於我們有史以來最好的基礎綜合比率，我們多元化的業務組合取得了出色的承保業績，這清楚地表明，即使在天氣波動時期，我們也有能力取得成功，就像我們行業擁有的經驗一樣。

In fact, despite having absorbed the highest ever level of catastrophe losses for the first nine months of the year, our September year to date core earnings per share of $12.43 as a record high.

事實上，儘管我們在今年前 9 個月吸收了有史以來最高水平的災難損失，但今年 9 月迄今為止的每股核心收益仍創下了 12.43 美元的歷史新高。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of business structure.

接下來，我會將電話轉給格雷格，討論業務結構。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance had another strong quarter in terms of both top and bottom line results. Segment income for the third quarter was $698 million, up about 50% from the prior year quarter, driven by improved prior year development and higher underlying underwriting income. The combined ratio of 95.8% was strong and improved from the previous quarter by more than 3 points.

謝謝，丹。 商業保險在營收和利潤方面再次表現強勁。 第三季的分部收入為 6.98 億美元，較上年同期成長約 50%，這得益於上年發展的改善和基礎承保收入的提高。 95.8%的綜合成本率表現強勁，較上季提高了3個百分點以上。

Similar to the past several quarters were extremely pleased with the quarter's exceptionally strong underlying combined ratio of 87.9%, which improved by about 2 points from the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting the benefit of burn pricing underlying result ever.

與過去幾季類似，我們對本季 87.9% 的異常強勁的基本綜合成本率感到非常滿意，該比率比去年同期提高了約 2 個百分點，主要反映了燃燒定價基本結果帶來的好處。

Turning to the top line, we grew net written premiums by 9% to an all time third quarter high of more than $5.5 billion. Renewal premium change was once again historically high at 10.5%, with renewal retains that increased nearly a point sequentially to 7.3%, d riving the majority of the strong pricing.

說到營收，我們的淨承保保費成長了 9%，達到第三季的歷史新高，超過 55 億美元。 續保保費變動再次達到 10.5% 的歷史高位，續保保留保費環比增長近一個百分點，達到 7.3%，推動了大部分強勁定價。

R etention remained excellent at 86% in new business of $680 million was the second highest third quarter result ever, just slightly trailing last year's record third quarter. In terms of pricing, we're pleased to sustain strong levels of renewal premium change, which increased sequentially from the second quarter.

6.8 億美元的新業務保留率仍維持在 86%，是有史以來第二高的第三季業績，僅略低於去年第三季創紀錄的水平。 在定價方面，我們很高興維持強勁的續保保費變動水平，自第二季以來連續增加。

Strong pricing was broad-based with renewal premium change battery close to double digits in every line other than workers' comp. With respect to pure pure renewal rate change, we're pleased that the exceptional granular execution by our field organization reflects and appropriately balances the current return profile and environmental trends for each line.

強勁的定價基礎廣泛，除工人補償外，所有產品線的續保保費更換電池均接近兩位數。 就純粹的續約率變化而言，我們很高興我們的現場組織卓越的精細執行反映並適當地平衡了每條生產線當前的回報概況和環境趨勢。

Umbrella and auto continue to lead the way with rate increases well into double digits. In terms of sequential renewal rate change, every line was at or higher than the second quarter. Even with these strong pricing levels, retention remains strong. As I mentioned earlier, a reflection of marketplace discipline in the face of industry headwinds.

雨傘和汽車繼續領先，增長率達到兩位數。 從環比續訂率變化來看，各條線均等於或高於第二季。 即使定價水準如此強勁，保留率仍然很高。 正如我之前提到的，這是面對產業逆風時市場紀律的反映。

As for the individual businesses in select renewal premium change remained strong at 12.3%, up almost 2.5 points from the third quarter of last year. Renewal rate change of 5.5% was up sequentially from the second quarter and up more than 2.5 points from last year's third quarter.

至於個別業務的精選續保保費變化依然強勁，達到12.3%，較去年第三季上升近2.5個百分點。 續訂率變動為 5.5%，較第二季較上季上升，較去年第三季上升超過 2.5 個百分點。

Retention ticked down as we continue to intensively optimize our CMP risk return profile and a couple of targeted geographies. New business was healthy in near historical highs. Overall, we remain pleased with the granular pricing and underwriting execution, driving profitable growth and select.

隨著我們繼續大力優化 CMP 風險回報狀況和幾個目標地區，保留率有所下降。 新業務健康發展，接近歷史高點。 總體而言，我們對精細的定價和承保執行感到滿意，推動了獲利成長和選擇。

In middle market. Renewal premium change was exceptionally strong at 10.6%, about a point higher than the second quarter, driven by renewal rate change, which reached 8% rate increases were broad-based with more than three-quarters of our middle market accounts, achieving positive rate change. And at the same time, the granular execution was excellent with meaningful spread from our best-performing accounts to our lower performing accounts.

在中間市場。 續保費變化異常強勁，達到10.6%，比第二季度高出約一個百分點，這是由續保費率變化推動的，續保費率變化達到8%，費率上漲基礎廣泛，超過四分之三的中間市場帳戶實現了正利率改變。 同時，細粒度的執行非常出色，從我們表現最好的帳戶到我們表現較差的帳戶之間的差距是有意義的。

We're pleased that retention also remained exceptional, even with these levels of price increases. Lastly, new business of $364 million was our highest ever third quarter results, and we're pleased with the risk selection and the strength of pricing on the accounts that we added to the portfolio. To sum up, Business Insurance had another terrific quarter. We're pleased with our execution and driving strong financial and production results while continuing to invest in the business for long-term profitable growth.

我們很高興即使在價格上漲的情況下，保留率仍然很高。 最後，3.64 億美元的新業務是我們第三季有史以來最高的業績，我們對風險選擇和我們添加到投資組合中的帳戶的定價強度感到滿意。 總而言之，商業保險又經歷了一個出色的季度。 我們對我們的執行力感到滿意，並推動了強勁的財務和生產業績，同時繼續投資於業務以實現長期盈利增長。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

這樣，我就把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty posted another strong quarter on both the top and bottom lines. We generated segment income of $222 million at an excellent combined ratio of 82.5%. We also delivered a very strong 85.6% underlying combined ratio in the quarter. The increase of 4.9 points from last year's quarter reflects a modestly elevated expense ratio, primarily related to the core of this acquisition and the impact of earned pricing.

謝謝，格雷格。 Bond & Specialty 季度營收及利潤均表現強勁。 我們以 82.5% 的出色綜合成本率創造了 2.22 億美元的分部收入。 本季我們也實現了 85.6% 的強勁基礎綜合成本率。 較去年季度增長 4.9 個百分點反映出費用率略有上升，主要與本次收購的核心以及贏得定價的影響有關。

We expect the expense ratio to remain elevated for a few more quarters as we integrate services operation and as we ramp up and earning premiums from its attractive book of business.

我們預計，隨著我們整合服務營運以及從有吸引力的業務中增加並賺取溢價，費用比率將在接下來的幾個季度內保持在較高水準。

Turning to the top line, we grew net written premiums by 7% in the quarter to a record high $1.1 billion in our high quality domestic management liability business. We again delivered excellent retention of 90% with positive renewal premium change that reflects terrific execution by our field organization and our focus on retaining our profitable book of business. We're pleased that we grew new business by over 80% from the prior year quarter to a record $113 million, driven by quarters nine months. Following the closing of our Corbis acquisition, we continue to feel terrific about the talent capabilities and business that we've added to our cyber portfolio were deploying courses, proprietary underwriting and risk control capabilities across our cyber book, helping our customers remediated bone or abilities and avoid cyber losses.

說到營收，本季我們高品質的國內管理責任業務的淨承保保費增長了 7%，達到創紀錄的 11 億美元。 我們再次實現了 90% 的出色保留率，並且積極的續訂保費變化反映了我們現場組織的出色執行力以及我們對保留盈利業務的關注。 我們很高興看到，在九個月的季度推動下，我們的新業務較去年同期成長了 80% 以上，達到創紀錄的 1.13 億美元。 完成對Corbis 的收購後，我們繼續對我們在網路投資組合中添加的人才能力和業務感到非常滿意，這些能力和業務在我們的網路書籍中部署課程、專有承保和風險控制能力，幫助我們的客戶修復骨骼或能力並避免網路損失。

Our distribution partners have endorsed our go-to-market strategy, which includes both Admitted and Excess and Surplus Lines, cyber offerings and realizing the benefit of our high quality travelers, paper and brand, and we've considerably improved core versus legacy renewal retention. In short, we couldn't be more pleased with the addition of the corporate team to the Travelers family.

我們的分銷合作夥伴已經認可了我們的市場策略，其中包括准入線路、超額線路和剩餘線路、網路產品以及實現我們高品質旅客、紙張和品牌的利益，並且我們已經大大提高了核心與傳統續訂保留率。 簡而言之，我們對於企業團隊加入旅行者家族感到非常高興。

Turning to our market-leading surety business, we grew net written premiums by 7% from a very strong level in the prior year quarter. This growth reflects a robust construction environment, continued strong demand for our surety products and services and outstanding execution by our team and growing our high credit quality portfolio.

談到我們市場領先的擔保業務，我們的淨承保保費比去年同期的強勁水平增長了 7%。 這一成長反映了強勁的建築環境、對我們擔保產品和服務的持續強勁需求、我們團隊的出色執行力以及不斷增長的高信用品質投資組合。

So we're pleased to once again delivered strong top and bottom line results this quarter and Bond & Specialty Insurance.

因此，我們很高興在本季以及債券和專業保險領域再次取得強勁的營收和利潤業績。

And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

現在我將把電話轉給麥可。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In Personal Insurance, w e are very pleased with our third-quarter results, which continued to reflect the positive impact frequently $384 million and a combined ratio of 92.5%, driven by excellent underlying by an excellent underlying underwriting result in strong net favorable prior-year reserve development.

謝謝傑夫，大家早安。 在個人保險方面，我們對第三季的業績感到非常滿意，該業績繼續反映了積極影響，高達3.84 億美元，綜合成本率為92.5%，這得益於出色的基礎承保業績以及上一年強勁的淨利好業績。

The underlying combined ratio of 82.7% reflects an 11.5 point improvement compared to the prior year quarter, primarily driven by the benefit of earned pricing in both auto and home as well as favorable non-catastrophe weather.

82.7% 的基本綜合成本率比去年同期提高了 11.5 個百分點，這主要是由於汽車和房屋的盈利定價以及有利的非災難天氣的推動。

Continued s trong price increases drove 7% growth in net written premiums as we continue our focus on improving profitability and property while seeking profitable growth in auto. In auto, we're pleased with another quarter of improved profitability. The third quarter combined ratio was very strong at 93.4% despite 4.9 points of catastrophe losses, primarily related to hurricane Helene.

由於我們繼續專注於提高盈利能力和財產，同時尋求汽車盈利增長，持續強勁的價格上漲推動淨承保保費增長 7%。 在汽車領域，我們對另一個季度獲利能力的提高感到滿意。 儘管主要與海倫颶風有關的災難損失達 4.9 個百分點，但第三季綜合成本率仍然非常強勁，達到 93.4%。

The underlying combined ratio of 91.2% improved 9.4 points compared to the prior year quarter. The improvement continues to be driven by the benefit of higher and pricing and lower losses from physical damage coverages. This quarter's underlying result also included a two point benefit related to the re-estimation of prior quarters and the current year.

基本綜合成本率為 91.2%，與去年同期相比提高了 9.4 個百分點。 這種改善繼續受到更高定價的好處以及物理損壞保險損失減少的推動。 本季度的基本結果還包括與前幾季和本年度的重新估計相關的兩點收益。

Taking a step back. The year to date, underlying combined ratio of 93.7% reflects considerable progress and is compelling evidence of our return to profitability in auto. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2024, it is important to remember that the fourth quarter auto underlying loss ratio has historically been about six to seven points above the average for the first three quarters because of winter weather and holidays rather than other quarter combined ratio of 91.5% improved by nearly 25 points compared to the prior year quarter, primarily as a result of a lower underlying combined ratio as well as lower catastrophe losses and higher favorable prior-year development.

退一步。 今年迄今為止，93.7%的基礎綜合成本率反映了巨大的進步，也是我們汽車產業恢復獲利的有力證據。 展望2024 年第四季度，重要的是要記住，由於冬季天氣和假期，而不是其他季度的綜合比率，第四季度汽車標的損失率歷來比前三個季度的平均水平高出約6 至7個百分點91.5%的比率比去年同期提高了近25個百分點，這主要是由於基礎綜合成本率較低、巨災損失較低以及上年發展情況較好。

Hurricane Helene and a severe convective storm in July drove catastrophe losses in the quarter. The underlying combined ratio of 74.4% improved 13.6 points compared to the prior year quarter. Approximately three-quarters of the year-over-year favorability was related to non-catastrophe weather and non-weather losses. The benefit of on pricing also contributed to the improvement.

颶風海倫和 7 月的強烈對流風暴造成了本季的災難性損失。 基礎綜合成本率為 74.4%，與去年同期相比提高了 13.6 個百分點。 大約四分之三的同比好感度與非災難性天氣和非天氣損失有關。定價的好處也有助於改善。

Turning to production, our results reflect our ongoing efforts to balance profitability and growth across the portfolio. We're pleased with our progress as we execute a very granular state by state strategy in domestic auto retention of 83% remained strong.

談到生產，我們的表現反映了我們為平衡整個投資組合的獲利能力和成長而不斷做出的努力。 我們對所取得的進展感到滿意，因為我們執行了非常細化的逐州策略，國內汽車保留率仍保持在 83% 的強勁水平。

Renewal premium change of 12.8% continued to moderate as intended renewal premium change will continue to decline, reflective of improved auto profitability. Auto new business premiums continued to reflect our success in achieving positive auto growth in many states, while auto new business premium was down slightly in total, the decline reflects our focus on auto profitability in a few remaining challenging states and across line impact of our actions to manage property exposure in high-risk cash geographies.

續保保費變動 12.8% 持續放緩，因為預期續保保費變動將持續下降，反映出汽車獲利能力的改善。 汽車新業務保費繼續反映了我們在許多州實現汽車正增長的成功，而汽車新業務保費總體略有下降，下降反映了我們對剩餘幾個充滿挑戰的州的汽車盈利能力的關注以及我們行動的跨線影響管理高風險現金地區的財產風險。

We're comfortable with this trade-off in the near term. I remain confident in our ability to profitably grow our portfolio over time. In homeowners and other retention of 85% and renewal premium change of 14.6% remained strong and consistent with recent quarters, we expect renewal premium change to generally remain at this level in the fourth quarter as we intended homeowners, new business premium and policies in force continued to decline compared to the prior year quarter.

我們對短期內的這種權衡感到滿意。 我對我們隨著時間的推移以盈利方式增長我們的投資組合的能力充滿信心。房主和其他保留率85%，續保費變化14.6% 仍然強勁，與最近幾個季度一致，我們預計第四季度續保保費變化將總體保持在這一水平，因為我們預期房主、新業務保費和有效保單與去年同期相比持續下降。

Also as we intended, the decline was most significantly in high-risk catastrophe geographies, reflecting continued actions to reduce exposure and mitigate volatility through improved risk selection, restricted binding authority, heightened eligibility requirements and higher deductibles. To sum up for the Personal Insurance segment. Overall, this was a great quarter, reflecting disciplined execution by our team and further progress towards delivering a profitable growing portfolio of personal lines business over time.

同樣正如我們所預期的那樣，高風險巨災地區的下降幅度最為顯著，反映出透過改進風險選擇、限制約束力、提高資格要求和提高免賠額，持續採取行動減少風險敞口並減輕波動性。 總結一下個人保險領域。 總體而言，這是一個出色的季度，反映出我們團隊嚴格的執行力，以及隨著時間的推移，在提供獲利成長的個人業務組合方面取得的進一步進展。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

現在我將把電話轉回阿貝。

Thanks, Micheal. We' re happy to open up for your questions.

謝謝，麥可。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

（操作員說明）Gregory Peters、Raymond James。

Okay. Good morning, everyone. So I guess for the first question, I'll focus on domestic business insurance and the renewal premium change, which continues to be quite strong even through the third quarter. I guess where I'm going with this has given the strong improvement in the underlying results, at what point will that renewal premium change begin to moderate?

好的。 大家早安。 因此，我想對於第一個問題，我將重點關注國內商業保險和續保保費變化，即使在第三季度，這種變化仍然相當強勁。 我想我的做法已經為基本結果帶來了強勁的改善，那麼續訂保費變化在什麼時候會開始放緩？

And Greg, good morning. It's Alan. Thanks for the question. We're not going to trying to forecast what that's going to be bid, but I would say, you know that there are headwinds out there in terms of inflation. There's uncertainty out there in terms of the political and regulatory environment, the geopolitical environment, so on and so forth. So I'll share that with you as a kind of things. We think some of the market's reacting to, but we're not getting the projected.

格雷格，早安。 是艾倫。 謝謝你的提問。 我們不會試圖預測出價是多少，但我想說，你知道通膨方面有阻力。 政治和監管環境、地緣政治環境等方面存在不確定性。 所以我會把它當作一種東西與你分享。 我們認為市場對此做出了一些反應，但我們沒有得到預測。

Okay. Fair enough. And I give a shot on, I guess the other question, you know, listening to the comments about the strong results, the best third quarter on quarter ever in business insurance, et cetera, and the free cash flow, I guess. Yes, I want to pivot back to capital management.

好的。 很公平。 我想嘗試另一個問題，你知道，聽聽有關強勁業績的評論，商業保險領域有史以來最好的第三季度，等等，以及我想的自由現金流。 是的，我想重新轉向資本管理。

I know you're not going to disclose our M&A on the call, but it seems like a balanced approach, including capital returns to shareholders and M&A for investment in organic is it's a high likelihood that they could happen. But considering the cash flow numbers, should we just pull that all in the share repurchase? Or what are you thinking?

我知道你不會在電話會議上揭露我們的併購，但這似乎是一種平衡的方法，包括股東的資本回報和有機投資的併購，它們很有可能發生。 但考慮到現金流量數字，我們是否應該將其全部納入股票回購中？ 或者你在想什麼？

Yes, Greg, I'll just tell you philosophically, for every single dollar of capital that we generate, our first priority is to invested back in the business in whatever way we can do that to create shareholder value, whether that's organic growth, investing in town center capabilities, products, et cetera, or whether it's inorganic.

是的，格雷格，我只是從哲學角度告訴你，對於我們產生的每一美元資本，我們的首要任務是以任何方式投資於業務，以創造股東價值，無論是有機增長還是投資城鎮中心的能力、產品等，或是否是無機的。

And so that's our first objective. And we tried to do that. But but it's not our capital needs its investor capital, and we tried to be very, very good stewards of shareholders' capital. And so we've got a pretty high bar for what we do that capital. And we don't think we can generate back in the business and create a return. We're going to return it to shareholders.

這就是我們的首要目標。 我們嘗試這樣做。 但這並不是我們的資本需要投資人的資本，我們努力成為股東資本的非常非常好的管家。 因此，我們對資本的用途設定了相當高的標準。 我們認為我們無法在業務中產生回報並創造回報。 我們將把它返還給股東。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI .

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Thanks. Good morning. I sort of a follow-up on the prior question on the BI renewal rate change. So it's good to see the acceleration quarter over quarter after it's decelerated the past three quarters. I guess I'm just wondering, Alan, if you can comment on how sustainable you feel like this rate environment is. And if you think the hurricanes over the last few weeks will change the trajectory on the property side, which I know is this kind of been a standout, a drag on that our recently from?

謝謝。 早安. 我想對之前關於 BI 續訂率變化的問題進行跟進。 因此，在過去三個季度減速之後，看到逐季加速是一件好事。 艾倫，我想我只是想知道您是否可以評論一下您認為這種利率環境的可持續性如何。 如果你認為過去幾週的颶風將改變房地產方面的軌跡，我知道這是一個突出的問題，是對我們最近的拖累？

And then just relatedly, how that impacts your appetite for growth within property, but also in liability lines where, you know, it's still an uncertain environment?

與此相關的是，這如何影響您對房地產成長的興趣，以及對責任線的成長的興趣，您知道，這仍然是一個不確定的環境？

Yes, there's a lot there, David. Let me start, and if I don't get to it all follow up. But in terms of pricing are in a way, I would say that that we expect renewal price change continued to be positive and strong for all the reasons I shared in response to Greg's question now whether that means it goes up a little bit from here down a little bit from here. I don't really know.

是的，那裡有很多東西，大衛。 讓我開始，如果我沒有完成所有後續工作。 但就定價而言，我想說的是，我們預計續訂價格變化將繼續積極且強勁，原因是我在回答格雷格的問題時分享的所有原因，這是否意味著價格會從現在開始上漲一點離這裡有點遠。 我真的不知道。

But I think the message we would give you for all those reasons is positive and strong. You mentioned your comment about about property and that price weighing, I guess I would say you've got to you got to take that property pricing together in connection with return to the property line. So it's not like the returns are struggling and the prices falling there that the price change in property is a reflection of the returns in that line. So it's totally rational until the appropriate on what we're not going to share our prop the pricing strategy, and we'll just have to wait and see where the market goes on that. But clearly, these terms are reminder of the potential volatility in and the things that we've all got to be thoughtful about in committing capital to derisk that against that. David, did I missed?

但我認為，基於所有這些原因，我們要向您傳達的訊息是積極而有力的。 您提到了有關房地產和價格權衡的評論，我想我會說您必須將房地產定價與返回房地產線結合。 因此，這並不是說回報率正在掙扎並且價格下跌，房地產價格的變化反映了該行的回報率。 因此，在適當的情況下，我們不會分享我們的定價策略，這是完全理性的，我們只能等待，看看市場的走向。 但顯然，這些條款提醒我們潛在的波動性，以及我們在投入資本以降低風險時必須考慮的事情。 大衛，我錯過了嗎？

And then just on just on the it sounds like the liability lines in auto and umbrella, the rates, it sounded like they accelerated a bit sequentially in the quarter. And just wondering on I guess you guys have made the reverse the reserve changes last quarter. Didn't sound like there were any noise this quarter from post that on being in growth are in some of those lines?

然後就在上面，聽起來汽車和雨傘的負債線、利率，聽起來像是在本季連續加速了一點。 只是想知道我想你們上個季度已經對儲備金變化進行了逆轉。 聽起來本季沒有任何關於成長的噪音出現在其中一些行中嗎？

Yes. So we think we should last quarter that even after the charge we took an umbrella, we were comfortable with the returns and umbrella even last quarter, and we remain comfortable with the returns. And again, we're going to execute on a very granular account-by-account basis.

是的。 因此，我們認為我們應該在上個季度即使在收取雨傘費用後，我們也對退貨和雨傘感到滿意，即使是上個季度，我們仍然對退貨感到滿意。 再說一次，我們將在非常細粒度的逐個帳戶的基礎上執行。

But given where the returns are given -- we shared before and we talked a lot about this last quarter, there's a real advantage to reacting quickly to lost cost trends and getting your view of pricing in order. And that gives us real confidence with the way we're executing in the marketplace today.

但考慮到回報的給出方式——我們之前分享過，並且我們在上個季度討論了很多，對成本損失趨勢做出快速反應並正確看待定價是有真正優勢的。 這讓我們對當今市場的執行方式充滿信心。

So we do think in terms of both growth and profitability, there is a huge advantage to reacting quickly to loss trend.

因此，我們確實認為，就成長和獲利能力而言，對虧損趨勢做出快速反應具有巨大優勢。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

邁克·扎倫斯基 (Mike Zaremski)，BMO。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Might be it an easy answer, but I don't think I heard any call out of some maybe one-time item items helping the underlying and business insurance, the underlying loss ratio.

嘿，謝謝。 早安. 也許這是一個簡單的答案，但我認為我沒有聽到任何可能是一次性專案的呼聲，這些專案有助於基礎保險和商業保險、基礎損失率。

Mike, it's Dan, that's rise pretty clean, pretty clean, pretty straightforward quarter. Generally we wouldn't call out anything that you need to adjust for.

麥克，我是丹，這個季度的表現非常乾淨、非常乾淨、非常簡單。 一般來說，我們不會指出任何您需要調整的內容。

Okay. Got it. F or my follow-up. So I guess my follow up on personal lines, you have said in your prepared remarks that you are, I think, making some changes to you deductibles, I believe on I guess from a sum of the super regionals are talking about kind of trying to overhaul our briefing that does is basically the deductibles in a major way of increasing deductibles and maybe rough depreciation schedules or just a a higher percentage deductible for replacement? Or are you is traveler taking more of a slower approach that are are you making any kind of meaningful changes to your terms and conditions in personal lines in certain geographies?

好的。 知道了。 F 或我的後續行動。 所以我想我對個人的後續行動，你在準備好的發言中說過，我認為你正在對你的免賠額進行一些改變，我相信我想從超級地區的總和中正在談論某種嘗試徹底修改我們的簡報，基本上是增加免賠額的主要方式是免賠額，也許是粗略的折舊計劃，或者只是更高百分比的更換免賠額？ 或者您的旅行者採取了更慢的方法，您是否正在對某些地區的個人線路條款和條件進行任何有意義的更改？

Sure, Mike, it's Michael. I would say, yes, we're very active in making meaningful changes to our terms and conditions for property, particularly in cat-exposed geographies. It's really what I was referring to. When I talked about what one of the drivers of the shrink and property is on and specifically to your question about deductibles, we have moved on -- in some states, w e have deductibles that are dollar denominated in other states. We have deductibles that our percentage.

當然，麥克，我是麥可。 我想說，是的，我們非常積極地對我們的財產條款和條件做出有意義的改變，特別是在貓出沒的地區。 這確實是我所指的。當我談到收縮和財產的驅動因素之一，特別是關於您關於免賠額的問題時，我們繼續前進——在某些州，我們有以美元計價的免賠額，而在其他州則以美元計價。 我們的免賠額是我們的百分比。

B ut we've made significant moves, particularly in cat-exposed states in the Midwest or along those lines, again, among the other things I mentioned, which are restricting eligibility on doing quite a bit of re-underwriting of the portfolio to really tried to manage that exposure.

但我們已經採取了重大舉措，特別是在中西部的貓暴露州或沿著這些路線，再次，除我提到的其他事項外，這些舉措限制了對投資組合進行大量重新承銷的資格，以真正試著管理這種曝光。

Okay. And I guess that that would maybe change the way we think about modeling this maybe the loss ratio versus the cat ratio. But I guess I'll follow-up offline. Thank you.

好的。 我想這可能會改變我們對損失率與貓比率進行建模的思考方式。 但我想我會在線下跟進。 謝謝。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Thanks for taking my question. So obviously on the renewal premium change, some great numbers overall, I did just want to ask on select. It looks like there was a little pressure on a little bit lower new business growth and retention. If I look back relative to a few quarters ago, I just want to ask on that.

感謝您提出我的問題。 很明顯，關於續訂保費的變化，總體上有一些很大的數字，我只是想詢問選擇。 新業務成長和保留率下降似乎面臨一些壓力。 如果我回顧幾個季度前的情況，我只想問一下。

This is Greg. Yes, as I shared with you in my comments, were constantly optimizing our book of business in terms of getting the right rig equation between risk and reward. When you look at the webcast, first of all 2023, we had some historical highs retention number throughout that period. We are real similar to the question, Mike just asked around deductibles t hat's driven based on severe convective storm and a new payroll that's been very dynamic and much more of a frequent weather event.

這是格雷格。 是的，正如我在評論中與您分享的那樣，我們不斷優化我們的業務，以獲得風險和回報之間正確的鑽機方程式。 當你看網路廣播時，首先是 2023 年，我們在這段時間內的留存率達到了一些歷史新高。 我們與這個問題非常相似，麥克只是詢問了基於強對流風暴和新工資單的免賠額，該工資單非常動態，而且更多的是頻繁的天氣事件。

And so, l ike Michael and his team, our team and small commercial has also been fine tuning that particular apparel and the coverages associated with that. And that's why we saw a little bit of the tick down in retention. They called that out in my prepared comments for you.

因此，就像邁克爾和他的團隊一樣，我們的團隊和小型廣告也一直在微調特定的服裝以及與之相關的報導。 這就是為什麼我們看到保留率略有下降。 他們在我為您準備的評論中指出了這一點。

Got it. Thank you. And then I just wanted to ask a follow-up on just thinking about catastrophe losses. I don't think you guys provide explicit guidance on this, but I was just curious if you guys could give us any help in thinking about how we could size your annual expected catastrophe load, any color or thoughts you could provide it would be helpful.

知道了。謝謝。 然後我只想詢問有關災難損失的後續問題。 我不認為你們對此提供了明確的指導，但我只是好奇你們是否可以給我們任何幫助來思考我們如何確定每年預期的災難負荷，你們可以提供的任何顏色或想法都會有幫助。

Yes, Rob, good morning. It's Alan. In our proxy statement. We do give it admittedly for the prior year. So it won't give you the current year view, but you can see the prior year. And one one thing we've shared is we've had a couple of years now of pretty heavy cat losses that we continue to factor those more recent years into our thought process. And we continue to weigh more recent years more heavily. And so that influences the way we think about catalyst going forward. We haven't yet given an outlook for cats.

是的，羅布，早安。 是艾倫。 在我們的代理聲明中。 我們確實給出了上一年度的數據。 因此，它不會為您提供當前年份的視圖，但您可以看到上一年。 我們分享的一件事是，我們已經經歷了幾年相當嚴重的貓損失，我們繼續將最近幾年的情況納入我們的思考過程中。 近年來我們繼續加大權衡。 因此，這影響了我們對未來催化劑的看法。 我們還沒有給出貓的前景。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks on Good morning. On my first question on kind of with addressing on an earlier question, but can you just confirm, I guess that no reserving actions taken home within Qiagen the corner, you can call it out? It sounds like there was nothing, but I just want to confirm that.

你好，謝謝你早安。 關於我的第一個問題，有點像之前的問題，但您能否確認一下，我想在 Qiagen 拐角處沒有採取任何保留行動，您可以說出來嗎？ 聽起來好像沒什麼，但我只是想確認一下。

This is Dan. So I'll reiterate what I said, which was so excess Vestas and BI. We were favorable about [151] that was driven by workers' comp wasn't entirely workers' comp. So there were some other lines that move, but they were small amounts and the net of that was a good guy as well.

這是丹. 所以我會重申我所說的話，維斯塔斯和 BI 太過分了。我們贊成[151]，它是由工人補償驅動的，但並不完全是工人補償。 所以還有一些其他的線路在移動，但數量很少，而且網路也很好。

Thank you on. And then my follow-up, my couple of question on Yvonne. In our Personal Auto inOne utilizing the 90-plus seven year to date and recognizing like there is some seasonality in the queue for. But this puts you guys might have a good spot relative to kind of mid 90s links, most kind of like folks typically target on the auto side. So is this like a sustainable run rate margin as we think about the business with fleet falling into your view of overall loss trend within Personal Auto.

謝謝你了。 然後是我的後續行動，我對伊馮的幾個問題。 在我們的個人汽車 inOne 中，迄今為止已有 90 多個人使用，並認識到隊列中存在一些季節性。 但這讓你們可能擁有相對於 90 年代中期連結的好位置，大多數人通常瞄準汽車方面。 當我們考慮車隊業務時，這是否就像一個可持續的運行率利潤率，符合您對個人汽車整體損失趨勢的看法。

Its Michael, I would say certainly the year to date results point to two of you that across the book or rate adequate were very pleased with the results in the returns on. I shared that reminder again, because it's pretty dramatic seasonality inside the four. Can I just wanted to make sure that folks were aware of it. But broadly speaking, moving on, again, pleased with and really rate adequate across the book in auto at this point.

是邁克爾，我肯定會說，今年迄今為止的結果表明你們中的兩個人對整個帳本或利率足夠的回報結果非常滿意。 我再次分享了這個提醒，因為這四個國家的季節性非常引人注目。 我只是想確保人們都知道這一點。 但總的來說，我們再次對這本書的汽車方面感到滿意並給予足夠的評價。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

布萊恩·梅雷迪思，瑞銀。

Yes, thanks. I just want to f ollow up on that when you read adequate across your book. So we start to expected policy counts going to grow here in the near future.

是的，謝謝。我只是想在你充分閱讀你的書後跟進這一點。 因此，我們開始預計在不久的將來這裡的政策數量將會增加。

Great question, Brian, it's Michael, we are we are hard at it, right. I tried to give you the pieces impacting auto growth as we sit here today and again on in states where we don't have some of the other complex and you've got many states across the country on. We're working hard at it at the states where we don't yet have adequate rates and we're making progress.

很好的問題，布萊恩，我是邁克爾，我們很努力，對吧。 當我們今天坐在這裡時，我試圖向你們提供影響汽車成長的因素，並在我們沒有其他綜合設施的州再次討論，但全國許多州都在這樣做。 我們正在那些尚未獲得足夠利率的州努力工作，但我們正在取得進展。

But obviously, we're subject to those rates getting filed and approved before those flip into that category. But again, we're hard at work on that. And then the other element is the cross line, the impact of our work to improve property on risk reward that will take some more time. But again, we're making strong progress there.

但顯然，在這些費率轉入該類別之前，我們必須先提交並批准這些費率。 但同樣，我們正在為此努力。 另一個因素是交叉線，即我們改善財產的工作對風險回報的影響，這需要更多的時間。 但我們再次在這方面取得了巨大進展。

And so again, as I as I've said, the last couple of quarters that are focused in auto is to profitably grow at our focus in home is to improve profitability, given our focus on portfolio business. Those two things kind of go hand in hand. And that's what I mean when I say we're trying to balance growth and profitability across the book. But it's definitely a strong focus of ours.

因此，正如我所說，過去幾個季度的重點是汽車業務的獲利成長，而我們在國內的重點是提高獲利能力，因為我們專注於投資組合業務。 這兩件事是齊頭並進的。 這就是我說我們正在努力平衡整個帳簿的成長和獲利能力時的意思。 但這絕對是我們的重點。

Thank you. And then on for Greg, I'm just curious, Greg, any kind of insight into what workers' comp pricing might look like going forward? I think we've heard that may be a state or so you might get some positive in oh seven out of ratings bureaus?

謝謝。 然後，對於格雷格，我只是好奇，格雷格，對未來工人的補償定價有什麼見解嗎？ 我想我們聽說這可能是一個州，所以你可能會在評級機構的哦七中得到一些積極的信息？

Yes, Brian, this is Greg yet. If I look at workers' comp as a portfolio, I think we're going to see a continuation of what we're seeing right now. And that really is driven based on the strong experience in the line. And we've certainly, as leaders in that line has demonstrated that. And so when you look at the bureaus and see CI. being the largest one, what we're looking at for a forecast in 2025 for a loss cost recommendation is very similar to what we saw in 2024.

是的，布萊恩，這還是格雷格。 如果我將工人補償視為一個投資組合，我認為我們將看到我們現在所看到的情況的延續。 這確實是基於豐富的行業經驗驅動的。 我們當然已經證明了這一點，正如該領域的領導者所證明的那樣。 因此，當你查看各局並看到 CI 時。作為最大的一個，我們對 2025 年損失成本建議的預測與我們在 2024 年看到的非常相似。

O f course, that doesn't apply to every individual account will will have the mods and et cetera, on the individual account. But I think it's going and I kind of stay with the levels that it's at right now.

當然，這並不適用於每個個人帳戶都會在個人帳戶上擁有模組等。 但我認為它正在發生，而且我會保持現在的水平。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克，美國銀行。

Yeah. More questions from Micheal, you are very popular today. I wanted to talk more about, first, the favorable development in the personal line segment, what years worth of throwing off people development? And does that mean to some extent you may have or react some pricing in some states?

是的。 來自邁克爾的更多問題，你今天很受歡迎。 我想多講一點，第一，個人線板塊的良好發展，拋開人才發展，值得幾年？ 這是否在某種程度上意味著您可能會在某些州進行某些定價或反應？

Josh, it's Dan. So I'll start with the I'll start with PYD story. Part of the PYD store. Remember, the end of 2023 was really favorable in personal insurance, and it was also a brand new. The fourth quarter was was terrifically strong from a profit perspective. It wasn't fully developed. We posted a really good number in the fourth quarter last year, but we were allowing for the uncertainty that for some of those claims going to come later, where some of the ones that that did come going to come with more severity, nine month, it's further on, we're just we're just more confident.

喬什，是丹。 所以我將從 PYD 的故事開始。 PYD 商店的一部分。 請記住，2023年底對於個人保險來說確實是有利的，而且也是一個全新的。 從利潤角度來看，第四季的表現非常強勁。 它還沒有完全開發出來。 我們在去年第四季度發布了一個非常好的數字，但我們考慮到了一些不確定性，其中一些索賠將在以後出現，其中一些確實出現的索賠將更加嚴重，九個月，更進一步，我們只是更加自信。

But if I look at the spread of accident years ago in personal insurance, favorable prior-year reserve development, there is favorability in recent years. But if I look at the last 10 years, there is favorability in each and every one of the last 10 years. There's always the pricing question for Michael.

但如果我看看幾年前個人保險事故的蔓延情況以及上一年準備金的有利發展，那麼近年來也有有利的情況。 但如果我看看過去10年，過去10年每一年都有好感。 麥可始終面臨定價問題。

Yes, Josh, I would say any, you know, in terms of did we overreact on pricing again, I would reiterate the comment I made in response to a lease, which is as we look across the book or rate adequate. And I'd also point you to the combined ratio for the year to date. If you if you add back prior year development, I tried to get to a accident year type number, t hat number is [97.4]. So I don't think that would be an indication that we've overshot.

是的，喬什，我會說任何，你知道，就我們是否再次對定價反應過度而言，我會重申我針對租約所做的評論，這是我們在整個書中所看到的或利率足夠的。 我還想向您指出今年迄今為止的綜合比率。 如果你加上前一年的發展，我試著得到一個事故年份類型的數字，這個數字是[97.4]。 所以我不認為這表明我們已經超越了。

That makes sense. And so we've had two quarters from now with about $170 million, $180 million of prior year favorable development in the personal line segment. A lot of time there's a certain trend and that trend deviates throws off favorable development. But are these discrete things that you will notice that make this degree we are favorable moment, probably less likely to be sustainable if the trend continue for could we continue to see hundreds of million dollars of favorable development if the trends keep playing out? I hope I'm answering your question appropriately.

這是有道理的。因此，從現在開始的兩個季度，我們的個人產品線細分市場取得了約 1.7 億美元、前一年 1.8 億美元的良好發展。 很多時候存在某種趨勢，而這種趨勢的偏離會阻礙有利的發展。 但是，您會注意到這些離散的事情是否使我們處於有利時機，如果趨勢繼續下去，我們可能不太可能持續下去，如果趨勢繼續下去，我們能否繼續看到數億美元的有利發展？ 我希望我能恰當地回答你的問題。

Yes, Josh, it's Dan. I think I get it and I'm glad you asked it. I mean, I think that there's two words that I would not put in a sense together. It's prior year reserve development and trend or run rate. I think we tell you this pretty consistently, w e look at all the data as it comes in every quarter. We do thorough reviews of every line every quarter. We're just trying to get it right.

是的，喬什，是丹。 我想我明白了，我很高興你問這個問題。 我的意思是，我認為有兩個詞我不會在某種意義上放在一起。 這是上一年的儲備發展和趨勢或運行率。 我認為我們非常一致地告訴你這一點，我們會查看每個季度的所有數據。 我們每季都會對每條生產線進行徹底的審查。 我們只是想把事情做好。

What you've seen probably in the last couple of years when loss costs were elevated in '22 and '23, we said we want to get it right? But in getting it right, we want to acknowledge the fact that if there's an elevated level of uncertainty, we're going to contemplated that in our reserves. Analogy, I've seen some of the inflationary pressures come back down to a more normal level. Some of those years have matured aged out. That's that's sort of what you're seeing.

在過去幾年中，當 22 年和 23 年損失成本上升時，您可能會看到什麼，我們說過我們想做對嗎？ 但在正確實施的過程中，我們要承認這樣一個事實：如果不確定性升高，我們將在我們的儲備中考慮這一點。打個比方，我看到一些通膨壓力回到了更正常的水平。 其中一些歲月已經成熟。 這就是你所看到的。

So I see you may or may not believe it. I literally don't have a view of whether prior year reserve development is going to be higher, lower or sideways and prior and PI. in the next several quarters. But that's the way we think about it.

所以我看你可能相信也可能不相信。 我確實不知道上一年的儲備開發是否會更高、更低或橫盤以及之前和PI。在接下來的幾個季度裡。 但這就是我們的想法。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. I'm going to go back to the VI casualty renewal price changes on for a second from a from other side. When you have gotten more rate today than last quarter. And then I hear your answers, Alan, about uncertainty and geo political risk and social and economic leading we talk about. So for years, I guess when you're getting more rate today than than last quarter with such strong current core margins, does it mean Alan that your concerns on those things I answered are more today than they were last year the year before when you started talking about them.

謝謝。 大家早安。 我將從另一方回到 VI 傷亡續保價格變化。 當您今天獲得的利率高於上季時。 然後我聽到你的回答，艾倫，關於我們談論的不確定性、地緣政治風險以及社會和經濟領先。 因此，多年來，我想當你今天獲得的利率比上個季度更高且當前核心利潤率如此強勁時，這是否意味著艾倫，你今天對我回答的那些事情的擔憂比去年更嚴重，前年你開始談論他們。

Does it mean that we're more concerned about it --

這是否意味著我們更關心它——

No, I hear that t the answer is that you gave you have got you. Okay. That's the answer the question. Are you more concerned today than maybe you were last year?

不，我聽說答案是你給了你，你就得到了你。 好的。 這就是問題的答案。 您今天比去年更擔心嗎？

I wouldn't say that we're more concerned today. We can't really think about this sort of static at a point in time. We're thinking about this looking out the windshield at the future and a lot loss trend is certainly positive. And and we'd like pricing to keep up with that. But I would not say that we're more concerned today. And I do think one thing you get with Travelers is still pretty early detection in reaction to changes in loss activity and slight. I don't know where it's going to go, but we feel pretty good about the actions that we've taken so far this year.

我不會說我們今天更擔心。 我們無法在某個時間點真正考慮這種靜態情況。 我們正在考慮這一點，展望未來，大量損失的趨勢肯定是正面的。 我們希望定價能跟上這一點。 但我不會說我們今天更擔心。 我確實認為，旅行者透過旅行者獲得的一件事仍然是對損失活動和輕微損失的變化做出反應的早期檢測。 我不知道它會走向何方，但我們對今年迄今為止所採取的行動感到非常滿意。

Okay, thanks. That is a quick one. Maybe on for Jeff. Perhaps from any updates you can share with, I guess, loss trends in the management liability, such things?

好的，謝謝。 那是很快的。 也許是傑夫。 也許從任何更新中你可以分享，我猜，管理責任的損失趨勢，諸如此類的事情？

Not specific loss trend, though I called out in his script for you and they give us just like we said that the pricing had an unfavorable impact on the underlying combined ratio. I'd point out though, that the price the pricing strategy is a function of rate adequacy. The returns in the business has been excellent.

不是具體的損失趨勢，儘管我在他的腳本中為您指出，他們給我們的就像我們說的那樣，定價對基礎綜合比率產生了不利影響。 但我要指出的是，定價策略的價格是利率充足性的函數。 該業務的回報非常出色。

Our renewal pricing reflects deliberate execution. That feel great about the renewal retention percentage at 90%. Thanks for the question.

我們的續訂定價反映了深思熟慮的執行。 90% 的續訂保留率感覺很棒。 謝謝你的提問。

And that concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Abbe Goldstein for some final closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。 現在，我將把電話轉回給阿貝·戈爾茨坦，讓其發表最後的結束語。

Thank you, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Appreciate the questions. And as always, if there's any --

謝謝大家，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。 感謝您提出的問題。 和往常一樣，如果有的話——

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。 感謝您的參與。 您現在可以斷開連線。