旅行家集團 (TRV) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

早安，女士們先生們。

Welcome to the third quarter results teleconference for Travelers.

歡迎參加旅客第三季業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on October 17, 2024.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議的錄音時間為 2024 年 10 月 17 日。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想把會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁阿貝·戈爾茨坦女士主持。

Ms,Goldstein.

戈德斯坦女士。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning and welcome to travelers' discussion of our third quarter 2024 results.

早安，歡迎旅客討論我們 2024 年第三季的業績。

We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning.

今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務補充和網路廣播簡報。

All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

所有這些資料都可以在我們的 Travelers.com 網站的「投資者」部分找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our three segment Presidents, Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance; Jeff Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance.

今天發言的是董事長兼執行長 Alan Schnitzer；丹‧弗雷，財務長；以及我們三個部門的總裁，商業保險部門的 Greg Toczydlowski；債券與專業保險的傑夫·克倫克（Jeff Klenk）；和個人保險的邁克爾克萊因。

They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment.

他們將討論我們業務的財務表現和當前的市場環境。

They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks and then we will take your questions.

他們將在閱讀準備好的評論時參考網路廣播演示，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation.

在我將電話轉給艾倫之前，我想提請您注意網路廣播簡報末尾的解釋性說明。

Our presentation today includes forward-looking statement.

我們今天的演示包括前瞻性聲明。

The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance.

該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，並非對未來績效的保證。

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors.

由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC.

這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 報告中的前瞻性陳述中進行了描述。

We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。

Also, in our prepared remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，在我們準備好的評論或對問題的答覆中，我們可能會提到一些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in our Investors section on our website.

調節表包含在我們最近的收益新聞稿、財務補充資料和我們網站投資者部分提供的其他資料中。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

現在我想把電話轉給艾倫‧施尼策。

Thank you, Abbe.

謝謝你，阿貝。

Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today.

大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

I'd like to start by acknowledging the devastation caused by recent hurricanes Helene in Milton.

首先，我要承認最近颶風海倫在米爾頓造成的破壞。

These were powerful storms and our hearts go out to all those who have been impacted.

這些都是強大的風暴，我們的心與所有受到影響的人同在。

Of course, we send our thoughts and prayers but we're also sending claim resources.

當然，我們會發送我們的想法和祈禱，但我們也會發送索取資源。

Our National Catastrophe Center in Hartford were managing the deployment of hundreds of travelers claim professionals along with mobile claim offices and quick response vehicles.

我們位於哈特福德的國家災難中心正在管理數百名旅行者索賠專業人員的部署以及移動索賠辦公室和快速響應車輛。

We've activated thousands more cross trained colleagues across the country to support our local response.

我們在全國範圍內動員了數千名接受過交叉培訓的同事來支持我們當地的應對措施。

Our catastrophe response model enables us to adjust virtually every claim with a traveler's claim professional and without resorting to independent adjusters.

我們的災難應變模型使我們能夠與旅行者索賠專業人士一起調整幾乎每項索賠，而無需求助於獨立理賠員。

That results in a better outcome for our customers and distribution partners.

這將為我們的客戶和分銷合作夥伴帶來更好的結果。

Thanks to these efforts in the advanced analytics and geospatial tools that we leverage, we're on track this year to meet our objective of resolving 90% of our claims from natural catastrophes within 30 days.

由於我們在先進分析和地理空間工具所做的努力，我們今年預計將實現在 30 天內解決 90% 自然災害索賠的目標。

That can make the difference between whether a customer of ours is able to celebrate the holiday season in their living room instead of a hotel room.

這可能會影響我們的客戶是否能夠在客廳而不是飯店房間慶祝節日。

I'd also like to express my deep gratitude to our claim organization.

我還要向我們的理賠組織表達深深的謝意。

The entire team tirelessly delivers exceptional technical expertise and support to our customers, demonstrating day in and day out the value of the travelers promise.

整個團隊孜孜不倦地為我們的客戶提供卓越的技術專業知識和支持，日復一日地展示旅行者承諾的價值。

Turning to results.

轉向結果。

We're very pleased to have generated outstanding top and bottom line results this quarter, excellent underlying underwriting income, higher net investment income and net favorable prior year reserve development, all contributed to core income of more than $1.2 billion or $5.24 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 16.6%.

我們很高興本季取得了出色的頂線和底線業績、出色的基礎承銷收入、更高的淨投資收入和上一年有利的淨儲備開發，所有這些都為超過12 億美元或稀釋後每股5.24 美元的核心收入做出了貢獻。

Underlying underwriting income of $1.5 billion billion pretax was up 73% over the prior year quarter, driven by record net earned premiums of $10.7 billion up 10% and an underlying combined ratio that improved 5 points to an excellent 85.6%.

稅前基礎核保收入為15 億美元，較上年同期成長73%，這得益於創紀錄的淨賺保費成長10%，達到創紀錄的107 億美元，基礎綜合成本率提高了5 個百分點，達到85.6%。

Both underwriting income and underlying margins were strong in all three of our segments.

我們所有三個細分市場的承保收入和基本利潤率都很高。

The underlying combined ratio in our Business Insurance segment improved nearly 2 points to an excellent 87.9%.

我們商業保險部門的基礎綜合成本率提高了近 2 個百分點，達到 87.9%。

And our Bond & Specialty business delivered a very strong underlying combined ratio of 85.6%.

我們的債券和特種業務的基礎綜合成本率非常強勁，達到 85.6%。

The underlying combined ratio in Personal Insurance improved 11.5 points to an exceptional 82.7%.

個人保險的基本綜合成本率提高了 11.5 個百分點，達到 82.7%。

These specific segment results contributed to a reported consolidated combined ratio that improved nearly 8 points to 93.2%.

這些具體的分部績效使報告的綜合綜合成本率提高了近 8 個百分點，達到 93.2%。

Turning to investments, our high-quality investment portfolio continued to perform well with after tax net investment income up 16% to $742 million driven by strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio and higher returns from our non-fixed income portfolio.

投資方面，我們的優質投資組合繼續表現良好，稅後淨投資收入增長16%，達到7.42 億美元，這主要得益於我們不斷增長的固定收益投資組合帶來的強勁而可靠的回報以及非固定收益投資組合更高的報酬。

Our underwriting and investment results together with our strong balance sheet enabled us to grow adjusted book value per share by 4% during the quarter.

我們的承銷和投資業績以及強勁的資產負債表使我們在本季調整後每股帳面價值成長了 4%。

And that's after returning $496 million of excess capital to shareholders and continuing to make important investments in our business as we notched another quarter of successful execution on a number of important strategic initiatives.

這是在向股東返還 4.96 億美元的超額資本，並繼續對我們的業務進行重要投資之後，我們在許多重要戰略舉措上又成功執行了一個季度。

Turning to the top line, we grew net written premiums by 8% to $11.3 billion billion.

說到營收，我們的淨承保保費增加了 8%，達到 113 億美元。

The strong value proposition that we offer to our customers and distribution partners along with outstanding execution by our colleagues in the field contributed to our top line success.

我們為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的強大價值主張以及我們在該領域的同事的出色執行力為我們的頂線成功做出了貢獻。

In Business Insurance, we grew net written premiums by 9% to more than $5.5 billion.

在商業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增加了 9%，達到超過 55 億美元。

Renewal premium change in the segment remained very strong, increasing to 10.5%, driven by strong contributions from the liability coverages.

在責任險的強勁貢獻的推動下，該細分市場的續保保費變化仍然非常強勁，增至 10.5%。

Renewal rate change accelerated to 7.3% in the quarter and was steady or higher in every product line.

本季續訂率變化加快至 7.3%，每個產品線都保持穩定或更高。

Even with the firm pricing environment retention in the segment ticked up to 86%.

即使定價環境堅挺，該細分市場的保留率仍高達 86%。

The combination of strong pricing and excellent retention reflects our deliberate execution and a marketplace that is reacting in a generally disciplined way to the headwinds of social and economic inflation.

強勁的定價和出色的保留率相結合，反映了我們深思熟慮的執行力，以及市場對社會和經濟通貨膨脹的逆風做出普遍紀律性反應的市場。

In Bond & Specialty Insurance, we grew net written premiums by 7% to a record $1.1 billion, driven by excellent retention of 90% in our high-quality management liability business and strong production in our market leading surety business.

在債券和專業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增長了7%，達到創紀錄的11 億美元，這得益於我們高品質管理責任業務90% 的出色保留率以及市場領先的擔保業務的強勁生產。

We grew surety net written premiums by 7% from a very strong result from the prior year quarter.

與去年同期的強勁業績相比，我們的保證淨承保保費成長了 7%。

We are very pleased to have generated terrific production results across our commercial segments where margins continue to be attractive, that includes our E&S offerings where we've grown net written premiums by 13% year-to-date.

我們很高興在我們的商業領域取得了出色的生產業績，利潤率繼續具有吸引力，其中包括我們的 E&S 產品，今年迄今為止，我們的淨承保保費增長了 13%。

In Personal Insurance, we were pleased to grow net written premiums by 7% driven by strong renewal price change in both auto and home.

在個人保險方面，由於汽車和房屋續保價格的強勁變化，我們很高興淨承保保費增加了 7%。

The strong production results across our three segments are a reflection of our view that in order to achieve our objective of industry leading returns over time, we needed an effective strategy to grow profitably over time.

我們三個部門的強勁生產業績反映了我們的觀點，即為了實現長期行業領先回報的目標，我們需要一個有效的策略來隨著時間的推移實現盈利增長。

As we've shared before, we seek to achieve profitable growth by investing in franchise value, making sure that we offer the products, services and experiences that our customers want to buy, and our distribution partners want to sell.

正如我們先前分享的，我們尋求透過投資特許經營價值來實現獲利成長，確保我們提供客戶想要購買、分銷合作夥伴想要銷售的產品、服務和體驗。

Also, central to our growth strategy is our very granular approach to risk selection, underwriting and pricing, which we've discussed many times.

此外，我們成長策略的核心是我們對風險選擇、核保和定價的非常精細的方法，我們已經對此進行了多次討論。

As a result of that approach and investments we've made over decades in leading data and analytics, our growth in insured exposures correlates to returns.

由於我們幾十年來在領先的數據和分析方面採取了這種方法和投資，我們保險風險的成長與回報相關。

In other words, generally speaking, the more attractive there are returns in a business, the more we've been growing in insured exposures in that business, all of which is to say, Travelers' unique combination of franchise value and execution yields very effective capital deployment, a high-quality profitable growth.

換句話說，一般來說，一項業務的回報越有吸引力，我們在該業務中的保險風險敞口就越大，所有這一切都意味著，Travelers 獨特的特許經營價值和執行力組合產生了非常有效的效果資本配置，獲利高品質成長。

The numbers speak for themselves.

數字不言而喻。

Over the last four years, we've grown our premium base by more than $13 billion nearly a 50% increase while simultaneously improving our underwriting margins.

在過去四年中，我們的保費基礎增加了超過 130 億美元，增幅接近 50%，同時提高了我們的承保利潤。

The result is that we've more than doubled our underlying underwriting income and increased our total underwriting income by more than 80%.

結果是我們的基礎承保收入增加了一倍以上，總承保收入增加了 80% 以上。

The combination of strong underwriting income and the reliable investment income from our substantial and growing investment portfolio makes for a powerful earnings engine.

強勁的承保收入和來自我們龐大且不斷增長的投資組合的可靠投資收入相結合，形成了強大的獲利引擎。

That's what's driving our strong results this quarter and year-to-date.

這就是推動我們本季和今年迄今取得強勁業績的原因。

And that's what's driving our core return on equity of 15.9% over the last 12 months.

這就是我們過去 12 個月核心股本回報率達到 15.9% 的原因。

And that's what gives us great confidence in the outlook for our business into 2025 and beyond.

這讓我們對 2025 年及以後的業務前景充滿信心。

With that, please turn the call over to Dan.

請將電話轉給 Dan。

Thank you, Alan.

謝謝你，艾倫。

I'm pleased to provide some additional color on an exceptionally strong quarter.

我很高興為這個異常強勁的季度提供一些額外的色彩。

Core income for the third quarter was $1.2 billion and core return on equity was 16.6% as we delivered another quarter of excellent underlying underwriting results net favorable prior year reserve development and strong investment income.

第三季的核心收入為 12 億美元，核心股本回報率為 16.6%，因為我們又一個季度取得了出色的基礎承保業績，淨有利的上年儲備開發和強勁的投資收入。

We're pleased to have once again generated record levels of earned premium this quarter and an excellent combined ratio of 93.2%, an improvement of nearly 8 points.

我們很高興本季再次創造創紀錄水準的賺取保費和 93.2% 的出色綜合成本率，提高了近 8 個百分點。

Inside of that, our underlying combined ratio improved [5 full points] from last year's strong result.

其中，我們的基礎綜合成本率比去年的強勁業績提高了 [5 個整點]。

This combination of premium growth and underlying marginal improvement led to our best ever underlying underwriting gain of $1.2 billion after tax, up $503 million or 74% from the prior year quarter.

保費成長和基本邊際改善相結合，使我們實現了有史以來最好的稅後基本承保收益 12 億美元，比去年同期增長 5.03 億美元，即 74%。

The expense ratio for the third quarter was 28.4% and reflects the benefits of our continued focus on productivity and efficiency coupled with strong top line growth.

第三季的費用率為 28.4%，反映了我們持續專注於生產力和效率以及強勁的收入成長所帶來的好處。

That brings the year-to-date expense ratio to 28.6% in line with our expectations.

這使得年初至今的費用比率達到 28.6%，符合我們的預期。

Our third quarter results include $939 million of pretax catastrophe losses.

我們第三季的業績包括 9.39 億美元的稅前巨災損失。

More than half of which relates to hurricane Helene, a devastating storm which made landfall in the last few days of the quarter.

其中一半以上與颶風海倫有關，這是一場在本季最後幾天登陸的毀滅性風暴。

For Travelers, the financial impact of Helene was greater in Georgia and the Carolinas than in Florida.

對於旅行者來說，海倫對喬治亞州和卡羅來納州的經濟影響比佛羅裡達州更大。

Turning to prior year reserve development.

轉向上一年的儲備開發。

We had total net favorable development of $126 million pretax.

我們的稅前淨有利發展總額為 1.26 億美元。

In Business Insurance, the annual asbestos review resulted in a charge of $242 million.

在商業保險方面，年度石棉審查導致了 2.42 億美元的費用。

Ex asbestos, Business Insurance had net favorable PYD of $151 million driven by favorability in workers' comp.

除石棉外，受工人補償的影響，商業保險的淨有利 PYD 為 1.51 億美元。

In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD of $36 million was driven by another quarter of better-than-expected results in fidelity and surety.

在債券和特種業務方面，保真度和保證性方面又一個季度好於預期的業績推動了淨有利 PYD 3600 萬美元。

Personal Insurance had $181 million of net favorable PYD with favorability in both home and auto.

個人保險擁有 1.81 億美元的淨優惠 PYD，在家庭和汽車領域均享有優惠。

After tax net investment income of $742 million was up 16% from the prior year quarter.

稅後淨投資收入為 7.42 億美元，比去年同期成長 16%。

Fixed maturity NII was again higher than the prior year quarter and in line with our previously shared outlook, reflecting the benefit of both higher average yields and significant growth in the portfolio.

固定期限NII再次高於去年同期，與我們先前的預期一致，反映出平均殖利率上升和投資組合顯著成長的好處。

Returns in the non-fixed income portfolio were also above the prior year quarter.

非固定收益投資組合的報酬率也高於去年同期。

In terms of our outlook for fixed income NII including earnings from short-term securities, we now expect approximately $700 million after tax for the fourth quarter.

就我們對包括短期證券收益在內的固定收益 NII 的展望而言，我們目前預計第四季度稅後約為 7 億美元。

For 2025, we expect approximately $2.9 billion after tax, our highest level ever, beginning with approximately $700 million in the first quarter of 2025 and growing to approximately $760 million for the fourth quarter.

對於 2025 年，我們預計稅後約為 29 億美元，這是我們有史以來的最高水平，從 2025 年第一季的約 7 億美元開始，到第四季度增長到約 7.6 億美元。

Turning to capital management.

轉向資本管理。

We generated our strongest ever level of quarterly operating cash flows at $3.9 billion, bringing the year-to-date figure above $7 billion.

我們創造了有史以來最強勁的季度營運現金流，達到 39 億美元，使年初至今的數字超過 70 億美元。

Also our strongest ever September year-to-date result.

這也是我們今年迄今最強勁的 9 月業績。

Interest rates decreased during the quarter and as a result, our net unrealized investment loss decreased from $4 billion after tax at June 30 to $2.1 billion after tax at September 30.

本季利率下降，因此，我們的未實現投資淨損失從 6 月 30 日的稅後 40 億美元減少到 9 月 30 日的稅後 21 億美元。

Adjusted book value per share which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses was $131.30 at quarter end, up 7% from year end and up 13% from a year ago.

季末調整後每股帳面價值（不包括未實現的淨投資損益）為 131.30 美元，較年末成長 7%，較去年同期成長 13%。

We returned $496 million of excess capital to our shareholders this quarter comprising share repurchases of $253 million and dividends of $243 million.

本季度，我們向股東返還了 4.96 億美元的超額資本，其中包括 2.53 億美元的股票回購和 2.43 億美元的股息。

We have approximately $5.3 billion of capacity remaining under the share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors.

根據董事會的股票回購授權，我們剩餘約 53 億美元的產能。

While it obviously did not impact our third quarter results, let me make a quick comment on hurricane Milton.

雖然它顯然沒有影響我們第三季的業績，但讓我對颶風米爾頓進行快速評論。

It's still early days in terms of assessing our ultimate losses but at this point, we have a preliminary range of between $75 million and $175 million of pretax losses net of reinsurance.

現在評估我們的最終損失還為時過早，但目前我們的初步估計扣除再保險後的稅前損失在 7,500 萬美元到 1.75 億美元之間。

To sum things up, our third quarter and year-to-date results illustrate the fundamental earnings power that has resulted from our multiyear focus on growth and attractive margins and our rock-solid balance sheet.

總而言之，我們第三季和年初至今的業績說明了我們多年來對成長和有吸引力的利潤率以及堅如磐石的資產負債表的關注所帶來的基本盈利能力。

In addition to best ever levels of net written premium and net earned premium, our diversified portfolio of businesses delivered a terrific underwriting result.

除了有史以來最好的淨承保保費和淨賺保費之外，我們多元化的業務組合還取得了出色的承保業績。

Thanks to our best ever underlying combined ratio, clearly demonstrating that we are positioned for success even during periods of weather volatility like we in the industry have experienced.

由於我們有史以來最好的基礎綜合比率，這清楚地表明，即使在我們行業經歷過的天氣波動時期，我們也有能力取得成功。

In fact, despite having absorbed the highest ever level of catastrophe losses for the first nine months of the year, our September year-to-date core earnings per share of $12.43 is a record high.

事實上，儘管我們在今年前 9 個月吸收了有史以來最高水平的災難損失，但我們 9 月迄今的每股核心收益為 12.43 美元，創下了歷史新高。

With that.

就這樣。

I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of Business Insurance.

我會將電話轉給格雷格，討論商業保險問題。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

Business Insurance had another strong quarter in terms of both top and bottom-line results. [Net investment income] for the third quarter was $698 million, up about 50% from the prior year quarter driven by improved prior year development and higher underlying underwriting income.

商業保險在營收和利潤方面再次表現強勁。第三季的[淨投資收入]為 6.98 億美元，比上年同期增長約 50%，這得益於上年發展的改善和基礎承保收入的增加。

The combined ratio of 95.8% was strong and improved from the prior quarter by more than 3 points.

綜合成本率為 95.8%，較上一季提高了 3 個百分點以上。

Similar to the past several quarters, we're extremely pleased with the quarter's exceptionally strong underlying combined ratio of 87.9%, which improved by about 2 points from the prior year quarter primarily reflecting the benefit of earned pricing.

與過去幾季類似，我們對本季 87.9% 的異常強勁的基本綜合成本率感到非常滿意，該比率比去年同期提高了約 2 個百分點，主要反映了贏得定價的好處。

This was our best third quarter underlying result ever.

這是我們有史以來最好的第三季基本業績。

Turning to the topline.

轉向頂線。

We grew net written premiums by 9% to an all-time third quarter high of more than $5.5 billion.

我們的淨承保保費成長了 9%，第三季達到歷史新高，超過 55 億美元。

Renewal premium change was once again historically high at 10.5% with renewal rate change that increased nearly [1 point] sequentially to 7.3%, driving the majority of the strong pricing.

續保費變動再次創下 10.5% 的歷史新高，續保費率變動較上季增加近 [1 點] 至 7.3%，推動了大部分強勁定價。

Retention remained excellent at 86%.

保留率仍保持在 86% 的出色水準。

A new business of $680 million was the second highest third quarter result ever, just slightly trailing last year's record third quarter.

6.8 億美元的新業務是有史以來第二高的第三季業績，僅略低於去年創紀錄的第三季。

In terms of pricing, we're pleased to sustain strong levels of renewal premium change which increased sequentially from the second quarter.

在定價方面，我們很高興維持強勁的續保保費變動水平，自第二季以來連續增加。

Strong pricing was broad-based with renewal premium change at or close to double-digits in every line other than workers' comp.

除工人補償外，所有產品線的續保保費變動均達到或接近兩位數，強勁的定價基礎廣泛。

With respect to pure renewal rate change, we're pleased that the exceptional granular execution by our field organization reflects and appropriately balances the current return profile and environmental trends for each line.

就純粹的續約率變化而言，我們很高興我們的現場組織出色的精細執行反映並適當地平衡了每條生產線當前的回報情況和環境趨勢。

Umbrella and auto continue to lead the way with rate increases well into double-digits.

雨傘和汽車繼續領先，增長率達到兩位數。

In terms of sequential renewal rate change, every line was at or higher than the second quarter.

從環比續訂率變化來看，各條線均等於或高於第二季。

Even with these strong pricing levels, retention remains strong as I mentioned earlier, a reflection of marketplace discipline in the face of industry headwinds.

正如我之前提到的，即使定價水平如此強勁，保留率仍然很高，這反映了面對行業逆風時的市場紀律。

As for the individual businesses, in select renewal premium change remains strong at 12.3%, up almost 2.5 points from the third quarter of last year.

至於個人業務，精選續保保費變化依然強勁，達到 12.3%，比去年第三季成長近 2.5 個百分點。

Renewal rate change of 5.5% was up sequentially from the second quarter and up more than 2.5 points from last year's third quarter.

續訂率變動為 5.5%，較第二季較上季上升，較去年第三季上升超過 2.5 個百分點。

Retention ticked down as we continued to intentionally optimize our CMP risk return profile in a couple of targeted geographies.

隨著我們繼續有意優化幾個目標地區的 CMP 風險回報狀況，保留率有所下降。

New business was healthy in near historical highs.

新業務健康發展，接近歷史高點。

Overall, we remain pleased with the granular pricing and underwriting execution, driving profitable growth in select.

總體而言，我們對精細的定價和承保執行仍然感到滿意，這推動了精選業務的獲利成長。

In middle market renewal premium change was exceptionally strong at 10.6%, about 1 point higher than the second quarter driven by renewal rate change which reached 8%.

在中間市場，續保保費變化異常強勁，達到 10.6%，比第二季高出約 1 個百分點，原因是續保費率變動達到 8%。

The rate increases were broad-based with more than three quarters of our middle market accounts achieving positive rate change.

利率上調的範圍廣泛，超過四分之三的中間市場帳戶實現了積極的利率變化。

And at the same time, the granular execution was excellent with meaningful spread from our best performing accounts to our lower performing accounts.

同時，細粒度的執行非常出色，從我們表現最好的帳戶到表現較差的帳戶之間的差距是有意義的。

We're pleased that retention also remained exceptionally even with these levels of pricing increases.

我們很高興即使在價格上漲的情況下，保留率仍然非常高。

Lastly, new business of $364 million was our highest ever third quarter result and we're pleased with the risk selection and the strength of pricing on the accounts that we added to the portfolio.

最後，3.64 億美元的新業務是我們第三季有史以來最高的業績，我們對風險選擇和我們添加到投資組合中的帳戶的定價強度感到滿意。

To sum up, Business Insurance had another terrific quarter.

總而言之，商業保險又經歷了一個出色的季度。

We're pleased with our execution in driving strong financial and production results while continuing to invest in the business for long-term profitable growth.

我們對我們在推動強勁的財務和生產業績方面的執行力感到滿意，同時繼續投資業務以實現長期盈利增長。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

這樣，我就把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

Bond & Specialty posted another strong quarter on both the top and bottom lines.

Bond & Specialty 季度營收及利潤均表現強勁。

We generated segment income of $222 million and an excellent combined ratio of 82.5%.

我們創造了 2.22 億美元的分部收入和 82.5% 的出色綜合成本率。

We also delivered a very strong 85.6% underlying combined ratio in the quarter.

本季我們也實現了 85.6% 的強勁基礎綜合成本率。

The increase of 4.9 points from last year's quarter reflects a modestly elevated expense ratio primarily related to the Corvus acquisition and the impact of earned pricing.

與去年同期相比增加 4.9 個百分點，反映出費用率略有上升，這主要與 Corvus 收購和贏得定價的影響有關。

We expect the expense ratio to remain elevated for a few more quarters as we integrate Corvus's operation and as we ramp up in earning premiums from its attractive book of business.

我們預計，隨著我們整合 Corvus 的業務以及從其有吸引力的業務中賺取保費，費用比率將在接下來的幾個季度內保持較高水平。

Turning to the top line.

轉向頂線。

We grew net written premiums by 7% in the quarter to a record high $1.1 billion.

本季我們的淨承保保費成長了 7%，達到創紀錄的 11 億美元。

In the high-quality domestic management liability business, we again delivered excellent retention of 90% with positive renewal premium change that reflects terrific execution by our field organization and our focus on retaining our profitable book of business.

在高品質的國內管理責任業務中，我們再次實現了 90% 的出色保留率，續保保費發生積極變化，這反映了我們現場組織的出色執行力以及我們對保留盈利業務的關注。

We're pleased that we grew new business by over 80% from the prior year quarter to a record $113 million driven by Corvus.

我們很高興看到，在 Corvus 的推動下，我們的新業務較去年同期成長了 80% 以上，達到創紀錄的 1.13 億美元。

Nine months following the closing of our Corvus acquisition, we continue to feel terrific about the talent, capabilities and business that we've added to our cyber portfolio.

在 Corvus 收購完成九個月後，我們仍然對我們網路投資組合中添加的人才、能力和業務感到非常滿意。

We're deploying Corvus' proprietary underwriting and risk control capabilities across our cyber book, helping our customers remediate vulnerabilities and avoid cyber losses.

我們正在整個網路帳本中部署 Corvus 專有的核保和風險控制功能，幫助我們的客戶修復漏洞並避免網路損失。

Our distribution partners have endorsed our go to market strategy which includes both admitted and excess in surplus lines cyber offerings and realizing the benefit of our high-quality Travelers paper and brand, we've considerably improved Corvus' legacy renewal retention.

我們的經銷合作夥伴已經認可了我們的市場策略，其中包括承認和過剩的剩餘線路網路產品，並認識到我們高品質的 Travelers 紙張和品牌的優勢，我們大大提高了 Corvus 的傳統續約保留率。

In short, we couldn't be more pleased with the addition of the Corvus team to the Traveler's family.

簡而言之，我們對 Corvus 團隊加入旅行者家族感到非常高興。

Turning to our market leading surety business, we grew net written premiums by 7% from a very strong level in the prior year quarter.

談到我們市場領先的擔保業務，我們的淨承保保費比去年同期的強勁水平增長了 7%。

This growth reflects a robust construction environment, continued strong demand for our surety products and services and outstanding execution by our team in growing our high credit quality portfolio.

這一成長反映了強勁的建築環境、對我們擔保產品和服務的持續強勁需求以及我們團隊在發展高信用品質投資組合方面的出色執行力。

So we're pleased to have once again delivered strong top and bottom line results this quarter in Bond & Specialty insurance.

因此，我們很高興本季債券和專業保險領域再次取得了強勁的營收和利潤業績。

And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

現在我將把電話轉給麥可。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝傑夫，大家早安。

In Personal Insurance, we are very pleased with our third quarter results which continue to reflect the positive impact of our rate and non-rate actions across the portfolio.

在個人保險方面，我們對第三季的業績感到非常滿意，這繼續反映了我們整個投資組合的利率和非利率行動的正面影響。

In the quarter, we delivered significantly improved segment income of $384 million and a combined ratio of 92.5%, driven by an excellent underlying underwriting result and strong net favorable prior year reserve development.

在出色的基礎承保業績和上年強勁的淨有利準備金發展的推動下，本季我們的分部收入顯著提高，達到 3.84 億美元，綜合成本率為 92.5%。

The underlying combined ratio of 82.7% reflects an 11.5 point improvement compared to the prior year quarter, primarily driven by the benefit of earned pricing in both auto and home as well as favorable non catastrophe weather.

82.7% 的基本綜合成本率比去年同期提高了 11.5 個百分點，這主要是由於汽車和房屋的盈利定價以及有利的非災難天氣的推動。

Continued strong price increases drove 7% growth in net written premiums as we continue our focus on improving profitability and property while seeking profitable growth in auto.

由於我們繼續專注於提高盈利能力和財產，同時尋求汽車盈利增長，持續強勁的價格上漲推動淨承保保費增長 7%。

In auto, we're pleased with another quarter of improved profitability.

在汽車領域，我們對另一個季度獲利能力的提高感到滿意。

The third quarter combined ratio was very strong at 93.4% despite 4.9 points of catastrophe losses primarily related to hurricane Helene.

儘管主要與海倫颶風有關的災難損失達 4.9 個百分點，但第三季綜合成本率仍然非常強勁，達到 93.4%。

The underlying combined ratio of 91.2% improved 9.4 points compared to the prior year quarter.

基本綜合成本率為 91.2%，與去年同期相比提高了 9.4 個百分點。

The improvement continues to be driven by the benefit of higher earned pricing and lower losses from physical damage coverages.

這種改善繼續得益於更高的盈利定價和更低的物理損壞保險損失。

This quarter's underlying result also included a 2 point benefit related to the re-estimation of prior quarters in the current year.

本季度的基本結果還包括與本年度前幾季的重新估計相關的 2 個百分點的收益。

Taking a step back, the year-to-date underlying combined ratio of 93.7% reflects considerable progress and is compelling evidence of our return to profitability in auto.

退一步來說，年初至今 93.7% 的基本綜合成本率反映了相當大的進步，也是我們汽車產業恢復獲利的有力證據。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2024, it is important to remember that the fourth quarter auto underlying loss ratio has historically been about 6 to 7 points above the average for the first three quarters because of winter weather and holiday driving.

展望 2024 年第四季度，重要的是要記住，由於冬季天氣和假日駕駛，第四季度汽車基礎損失率歷史上比前三個季度的平均水平高出約 6 至 7 個百分點。

In homeowners and other, the third quarter combined ratio of 91.5% improved by nearly 25 points compared to the prior quarter, primarily as a result of a lower underlying combined ratio as well as lower catastrophe losses and higher favorable prior year development.

在房主和其他方面，第三季綜合成本率為91.5%，比上一季提高了近25 個百分點，這主要是由於基礎綜合成本率較低、巨災損失較低以及上年發展較好。

Hurricane Helene and a severe convective storm in July drove catastrophe losses in a quarter.

颶風海倫和 7 月的強烈對流風暴在一個季度造成了災難性損失。

The underlying combined ratio of 74.4% improved 13.6 points compared to the prior year quarter.

基本綜合成本率為 74.4%，與去年同期相比提高了 13.6 個百分點。

Approximately three quarters of the year over year favorability was related to non-catastrophe weather and non-weather losses.

年比大約四分之三的好感度與非災難性天氣和非天氣損失有關。

The benefit of earned pricing also contributed to the improvement.

贏得定價的好處也有助於改善。

Turning to production, our results reflect our ongoing efforts to balance profitability and growth across the portfolio.

就生產而言，我們的表現反映了我們為平衡整個投資組合的獲利能力和成長所做的持續努力。

We're pleased with our progress as we execute a very granular state by state strategy.

我們對我們的進展感到滿意，因為我們執行了非常細粒度的州戰略。

In domestic auto, retention of 83% remains strong.

在國產汽車中，83%的保留率依然強勁。

Renewal premium change of 12.8% continued to moderate as intended.

續保費變動 12.8%，繼續如預期緩和。

Renewal premium change will continue to decline reflective of improved auto profitability.

續保保費變動將持續下降，反映出汽車獲利能力的改善。

Auto new business premiums continue to reflect our success in achieving positive auto growth in many states.

汽車新業務保費繼續反映出我們在許多州實現汽車業務正成長方面所取得的成功。

While auto new business premium was down slightly in total, the decline reflects our focus on auto profitability in a few remaining challenging states and the crossline impact of our actions to manage property exposure in high-risk cat geographies.

雖然汽車新業務保費總體略有下降，但下降反映了我們對剩餘幾個充滿挑戰的州的汽車盈利能力的關注，以及我們在高風險地區管理財產風險的行動的跨線影響。

We're comfortable with this trade off in the near-term and we remain confident in our ability to profitably grow our portfolio over time.

我們對短期內的這種權衡感到滿意，我們對隨著時間的推移以盈利方式增長我們的投資組合的能力充滿信心。

In homeowners and other, retention of 85% and renewal premium change of 14.6% remains strong in consistent with recent quarters.

在房主和其他方面，85% 的保留率和 14.6% 的續保保費變化與最近幾季保持一致。

We expect renewal premium change to generally remain at this level in the fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季續保保費變動將基本維持在這一水準。

As we intended, homeowners new business premium and policies in force continued to decline compared to the prior quarter.

正如我們預期的那樣，房主新業務保費和有效保單與上一季相比繼續下降。

Also, as we intended, the decline was most significant in high-risk catastrophe geographies, reflecting continued actions to reduce exposure and mitigate volatility to improve risk selection, restricted binding authority, heightened eligibility requirements and higher deductibles.

此外，正如我們預期的那樣，下降幅度在高風險巨災地區最為顯著，反映出為減少風險敞口和減輕波動性而持續採取的行動，以改善風險選擇、限制約束力、提高資格要求和提高免賠額。

To sum up, for the Personal Insurance segment overall, this was a great quarter, reflecting disciplined execution by our team and further progress toward delivering a profitable growing portfolio of personalized business over time.

總而言之，對於整個個人保險領域來說，這是一個出色的季度，反映出我們團隊嚴格的執行力，以及隨著時間的推移在提供盈利性不斷增長的個性化業務組合方面取得的進一步進展。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

現在我將把電話轉回阿貝。

Thanks Michael.

謝謝邁克爾。

We're happy to open up for your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

（操作員說明）Gregory Peters、Raymond James。

Okay.

好的。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

So I guess for the first question, I'll focus on domestic business insurance and the renewal premium change which continues to be quite strong even through the third quarter.

因此，我想對於第一個問題，我將重點放在國內商業保險和續保保費變化，即使在第三季度，這種變化仍然相當強勁。

I guess where I'm going with this is given the strong improvement in the underlying results, at what point will that renewal premium change begin to moderate?

我想，考慮到基本結果的強勁改善，續訂保費變化將在什麼時候開始放緩？

Hey, Greg.

嘿，格雷格。

Good morning.

早安.

It's Alan.

是艾倫。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

We're not going to try to forecast what that's going to be, but I would say, there are headwinds out there in terms of inflation.

我們不會嘗試預測具體情況，但我想說，通膨方面存在阻力。

There's uncertainty out there in terms of the political and regulatory environment, the geopolitical environment and so on and so forth.

政治和監管環境、地緣政治環境等方面存在不確定性。

So I'll share that with you is the kind of things we think the market is reacting to, but we're not going to project it.

因此，我將與您分享的是我們認為市場正在做出反應的事情，但我們不會預測它。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

I thought give it a shot.

我想試試看。

I guess the other question listening to the comments about the strong results, the best third quarter ever in Business Insurance, etcetera and the free cash flow, I guess, I want to pivot back to capital management.

我想另一個問題是聽到關於強勁業績、商業保險領域有史以來最好的第三季等以及自由現金流的評論，我想我想回到資本管理。

I know you're not going to disclose M&A on the call, but it seems like a balanced approach including capital returns to shareholders and M&A or investment in organic is a high likelihood that it could happen.

我知道您不會在電話會議上披露併購信息，但似乎採取一種平衡的方法，包括股東資本回報和併購或有機投資，這種情況很有可能發生。

But I considering the cash flow numbers, should we just plow that all in a share purchase or what are you thinking?

但我考慮到現金流量數字，我們是否應該將其全部投入股票購買中，或者您在想什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

Greg, I'll just tell you philosophically for every single dollar of capital that we generate, our first priority is to invest it back in the business in whatever way we can do that to create shareholder value, whether that's organic growth, investing in talent or capabilities, products, et cetera, or whether it's in organic.

格雷格，我只是從哲學角度告訴你，對於我們產生的每一美元資本，我們的首要任務是以任何方式將其投資回業務，以創造股東價值，無論是有機增長還是投資於人才或者能力、產品等等，或是否是有機的。

So that our first objective and we try to do that, but it's not our capital.

所以這是我們的首要目標，我們努力做到這一點，但這不是我們的資本。

It's investor capital and we try to be very, very good stewards of shareholders capital.

這是投資人的資本，我們努力成為股東資本的非常非常好的管理者。

And so, we've got a pretty high bar for what we do with that capital, and we don't think we can generate it back in the business and create a return, we're going to return it to shareholders.

因此，我們對這些資本的用途設定了相當高的標準，我們認為我們無法將其重新投入業務並創造回報，我們會將其返還給股東。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I had a follow up on the prior question on the BI renewal rate change.

我對之前有關 BI 續訂率變化的問題進行了跟進。

So it's good to see the acceleration quarter-over-quarter after it's decelerated the past three quarters.

因此，在過去三個季度減速之後，看到季度環比加速是件好事。

I guess, I'm just wondering Alan, if you could comment on how sustainable you feel like this rate environment is?

我想，我只是想知道艾倫，您是否可以評論一下您認為這種利率環境的可持續性如何？

And if you think the hurricanes over the last few weeks will change the trajectory on the property side, which I know is kind of been a standout, a drag on that RRC recently.

如果你認為過去幾週的颶風將改變房地產方面的軌跡（我知道這是一個突出的問題），那麼最近會拖累 RRC。

And then just relatedly, how that impacts your appetite for growth within property, but also in liability lines where it's still an uncertain environment?

與此相關的是，這如何影響您對房地產增長的興趣，以及在環境仍然不確定的情況下的責任線增長的興趣？

Yeah.

是的。

So there's a lot there.

所以那裡有很多東西。

David, let me start and if I don't get to it at all, follow up.

大衛，讓我開始吧，如果我根本沒有講到，請跟進。

But in terms of pricing, I would say that we expect renewal price change continue to be positive and strong for all the reasons I shared in response to Greg's question.

但就定價而言，我想說，出於我在回答格雷格問題時分享的所有原因，我們預計續訂價格變化將繼續積極且強勁。

Now, whether that means it goes up a little bit from here or down a little bit from here, I don't really know.

現在，這是否意味著它從這裡上升一點或從這裡下降一點，我真的不知道。

But I think the message we would give you for all those reasons is positive and strong.

但我認為，基於所有這些原因，我們要向您傳達的訊息是積極而強烈的。

You mentioned the comment about property and that price weighing, I guess I would say you got to take that property pricing together in connection with the returns in the property line.

您提到了有關房地產和價格權衡的評論，我想我會說您必須將房地產定價與房地產項目的回報結合起來。

So it's not like the returns are struggling and the price is falling.

因此，回報率並沒有下降，價格也沒有下降。

The price change in property is a reflection of the returns in that line.

房地產的價格變化反映了該行的回報。

So it's totally rational and totally appropriate.

所以這是完全合理、完全合適的。

We're not going to share our property pricing strategy, and we'll just have to wait and see where the market goes on that.

我們不會分享我們的房地產定價策略，我們只能等待，看看市場的走向。

But clearly, these storms are a reminder of the potential volatility and the things that we've all got to be thoughtful about and committing capital to risk.

但顯然，這些風暴提醒我們潛在的波動性以及我們都必須考慮並投入資本的風險的事情。

Did I get there, David?

我到那裡了嗎，大衛？

Anything I missed?

我錯過了什麼嗎？

And then just on the -- it sounds like the liability lines in auto and umbrella rates, it sounded like they accelerated a bit sequentially in the quarter and just wondering, I guess you guys have made the reserve changes last quarter.

然後就--聽起來像是汽車和傘率的負債線，聽起來他們在本季度連續加速了一點，只是想知道，我猜你們上個季度已經進行了準備金變更。

It didn't sound like there was any noise this quarter post that.

聽起來本季沒有任何噪音。

But just your comfort level in terms of leaning into growth in some of those lines.

但這只是您在某些方面傾向於增長的舒適程度。

Yeah.

是的。

So I think we shared last quarter that even after the charge, we took an umbrella.

所以我認為我們上個季度分享過，即使在收費之後，我們也帶了雨傘。

We were comfortable with the returns in umbrella even last quarter, and we remain comfortable with the returns.

即使是上個季度，我們也對保護傘的回報感到滿意，而且我們仍然對回報感到滿意。

And again, we're going to execute on a very granular account by account basis.

再說一遍，我們將在非常細粒度的帳戶基礎上執行。

But given where the returns are, given -- we've shared before and we talked a lot about this last quarter.

但考慮到回報的情況，考慮到我們之前已經分享過，並且我們在上個季度對此進行了很多討論。

There's a real advantage to reacting quickly to loss cost trends and getting your view of pricing in order and that gives us real confidence with the way we're executing in the marketplace today.

對損失成本趨勢做出快速反應並按順序了解您對定價的看法是一個真正的優勢，這讓我們對當今市場上的執行方式充滿信心。

So we do think in terms of both growth and profitability, there is a huge advantage to reacting quickly to loss trends.

因此，我們確實認為，就成長和獲利能力而言，對損失趨勢做出快速反應具有巨大的優勢。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

邁克·扎倫斯基 (Mike Zaremski)，BMO。

It might be an easy answer, but I don't think I heard any call out of maybe one-time items of helping the underlying in business insurance, the underlying loss ratio.

這可能是一個簡單的答案，但我認為我沒有聽到任何關於幫助商業保險標的（標的損失率）的一次性項目的呼聲。

Hey, Mike.

嘿，麥克。

It's Dan.

是丹.

That's right.

這是正確的。

It's pretty clean, pretty straightforward quarter.

這是一個非常乾淨、非常簡單的季度。

And really, we wouldn't call out anything that you need to adjust for.

事實上，我們不會指出任何您需要調整的內容。

Okay.

好的。

For my follow up.

為了我的後續。

So I guess my follow up will be on personal lines.

所以我想我的後續行動將是個人的。

You have said in your prepared remarks that you are, I think, making some changes to deductibles, I believe.

我相信，您在準備好的發言中說過，我認為您正在對免賠額進行一些更改。

I guess from some of the super regionals that are talking about trying to overhaul, they're roughing basically the deductibles in a major way, increasing deductibles and maybe rough depreciation schedules or just a higher percentage deductible for roof replacement?

我猜想，從一些正在談論試圖進行徹底改革的超級區域來看，他們基本上是在大幅提高免賠額，增加免賠額，也許是粗略的折舊計劃，或者只是為屋頂更換提供更高的免賠額？

Are you -- is Travelers taking more of a slower approach to that or are you making any kind of meaningful changes to your terms and conditions in personalized and certain geographies?

您是否——旅行者是否採取了更緩慢的方法，或者您是否對個性化和某些地區的條款和條件進行了任何有意義的更改？

Sure, Mike.

當然，麥克。

It's Michael, I would say, yes, we're very active in making meaningful changes to our terms and conditions for property, particularly in cat exposed geographies.

我想說的是邁克爾，是的，我們非常積極地對我們的財產條款和條件做出有意義的改變，特別是在貓暴露的地區。

It's really what I was referring to.

這確實是我所指的。

When I talked about what one of the drivers of the shrink and property is.

當我談到收縮和房地產的驅動因素之一是什麼時。

And specifically, to your question about deductibles, we have moved -- in some states, we have deductibles that are dollar denominated.

具體來說，對於您關於免賠額的問題，我們已經採取行動 - 在某些州，我們的免賠額以美元計價。

In other states, we have deductibles that are percentage.

在其他州，我們的免賠額是百分比。

But we've made significant moves particularly in cat exposed states in the Midwest along those lines.

但我們已經採取了重大舉措，特別是在中西部貓暴露的州，沿著這些路線。

Again, among the other things I mentioned, which are restricting eligibility doing quite a bit of re-underwriting of the portfolio to really try to manage that exposure.

再次，除了我提到的其他事情之外，這些事情限制了對投資組合進行大量重新承銷的資格，以真正嘗試管理該風險敞口。

Okay.

好的。

I guess that would maybe change the way we need to think about modeling of this -- maybe the loss ratio versus the cat ratio.

我想這可能會改變我們考慮建模的方式——也許是損失率與貓的比率。

But I guess, I'll follow up offline.

但我想，我會在線下跟進。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Hey.

嘿。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

So obviously on the renewal premium change, great numbers overall.

很明顯，在續保保費變化方面，整體數字很大。

I just want to ask on select.

我只想問一下select。

It looks like there was a little pressure and a little bit lower new business growth and retention If I look back relative to a few quarters ago.

如果我回顧幾個季度前的話，看起來壓力有點小，新業務成長和保留率也有點低。

I just want to ask on that.

我只是想問一下。

Good morning, Rob.

早安，羅布。

This is Greg.

這是格雷格。

Yeah.

是的。

As I shared with you in my comments, we're constantly optimizing our book of business in terms of getting the right equation between risk and reward.

正如我在評論中與您分享的那樣，我們不斷優化我們的業務，以在風險和回報之間找到正確的平衡。

When you look at the webcast, first of all, 2023, we had some historical high retention number throughout that period.

當你看網路廣播時，首先是 2023 年，我們在這段時間內的留存率達到了歷史最高水準。

And we are -- similar to the question Mike just asked around deductibles, that's driven based on severe convective storm and a new peril that's been very dynamic and much more of a frequent weather event.

我們 - 類似於麥克剛剛提出的有關免賠額的問題，這是基於強對流風暴和一種非常動態且更頻繁的天氣事件的新危險所驅動的。

And so, like Michael and his team, our team in small commercial has also been fine tuning that particular peril and the coverage associated with that.

因此，就像麥可和他的團隊一樣，我們的小型商業團隊也一直在微調這種特定的危險以及與之相關的報告。

And that's why we saw a little bit of the checkdown in retention.

這就是為什麼我們在保留方面看到了一些限制。

I called that out in my prepared comments for you.

我在為您準備的評論中指出了這一點。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then I just wanted to ask as a follow up on just thinking about catastrophe losses.

然後我只是想問一下，作為對災難損失的後續思考。

I don't think you guys provide an explicit guidance on this, but I was just curious if you guys could give us any help in thinking about how we could size your annual expected catastrophe load.

我不認為你們對此提供了明確的指導，但我只是好奇你們能否給我們任何幫助，幫助我們思考如何確定每年預期的災難負荷。

Any color or thoughts you could provide would be helpful.

您可以提供的任何顏色或想法都會有幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

Rob, good morning.

羅布，早安。

It's Alan.

是艾倫。

In our proxy statement, we do give it admittedly for the prior year.

在我們的委託書中，我們確實承認了前一年的情況。

So it won't give you the our current year view.

因此，它不會向您提供我們當前的年度視圖。

But you can see the prior year and one thing we've shared is we've had a couple of years now of pretty heavy cat losses is that we continue to factor those more recent years into our thought process, and we continue to weigh more recent years more heavily and so that influences the way we think about cat loads going forward.

但你可以看到前一年，我們分享的一件事是，我們已經經歷了幾年相當嚴重的貓損失，我們繼續將最近幾年的情況納入我們的思考過程中，並且我們繼續權衡更多近年來更加嚴重，因此這影響了我們對未來貓負載的看法。

We haven't yet given an outlook for cats.

我們還沒有給出貓的前景。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks.

你好，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

My first question, I think it was addressed in one of the earlier questions, but can you just confirm, I guess that no reserving action was taken with [NPL] in the quarter.

我的第一個問題，我認為它已在先前的問題中得到解決，但您能否確認一下，我想本季度沒有對 [NPL] 採取任何保留行動。

You didn't call it out.

你沒有叫出來。

So it sounds like there was nothing, but I just want to confirm that.

聽起來好像什麼都沒有，但我只是想確認一下。

Yeah.

是的。

Elyse, it's Dan.

伊麗絲，是丹。

So I'll reiterate what I said, which was asbestos and BI, we were favorable about [151] that was driven by workers comp.

因此，我將重申我所說的，即石棉和 BI，我們對由工人補償驅動的 [151] 持贊成態度。

It wasn't entirely workers' comp.

這並不完全是工人的補償。

So there were some other lines that move, but they were small amounts and the net of that was a good guy as well.

所以還有其他一些線路在移動，但數量很少，而且網路也很好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then my follow up, my second question is on personal auto.

接下來我的第二個問題是關於個人汽車的。

When you guys -- the [937] year-to-date and recognizing like there is some seasonality in the Q4, but this puts you guys right at a good spot relative to kind of mid-90s, which is kind of what folks typically target on the auto side.

當你們——[937]年初至今並認識到第四季度存在一些季節性，但這使你們相對於 90 年代中期處於一個很好的位置，這是人們通常的情況目標在汽車一側。

So is this like the sustainable run rate margin as we think about the business with rates slowing and just your view of overall loss trend within person auto?

那麼，當我們考慮利率放緩的業務以及您對個人汽車整體損失趨勢的看法時，這是否類似於可持續的運行利率利潤率？

Sure, Elyse.

當然，愛麗絲。

It's Michael.

是麥可。

I would say certainly the year-to-date result points to a view that across the book were rate adequate.

我肯定會說，今年迄今為止的結果表明，整本書的評級都是足夠的。

We're very pleased with the results and the returns.

我們對結果和回報非常滿意。

I shared that reminder again because it's pretty dramatic seasonality inside the book and I just wanted to make sure that folks were aware of it.

我再次分享了這個提醒，因為書中的季節性非常引人注目，我只是想確保人們意識到這一點。

But broadly speaking, again, pleased with and really rate adequate across the book in auto at this point.

但總的來說，我再次對這本書感到滿意，並且對汽車方面的評價非常滿意。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

布萊恩·梅雷迪思，瑞銀集團。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Michael, can I just follow up on that one.

邁克爾，我可以跟進一下嗎？

If you rate adequate across your book, should we start to expect that policy accounts going to grow up here in the near future?

如果您對您的帳簿給予足夠的評價，我們是否應該開始期望保單帳戶在不久的將來會成長？

Great question, Brian.

好問題，布萊恩。

It's Michael.

是麥可。

We are hard at it.

我們很努力。

I tried to give you the pieces, impacting auto growth as we sit here today and again, in states where we don't have some of the other complications, we are seeing new business growth and again, that's many states across the country.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，我試圖向你們提供影響汽車增長的信息，在我們沒有其他一些複雜情況的州，我們再次看到新的業務增長，這是全國許多州的情況。

We're working hard at it at the states where we don't yet have adequate rates.

我們正在那些還沒有足夠利率的州努力做到這一點。

And we're making progress, but obviously we're subject to those rates getting filed and approved before those flip into that category.

我們正在取得進展，但顯然我們必須先提交並批准這些費率，然後才能進入該類別。

But again, we're hard at work on that.

但同樣，我們正在為此努力。

And then the other element is the crossline impact of our work to improve property risk reward.

另一個因素是我們提高財產風險回報工作的跨線影響。

That will take some more time, but again, we're making strong progress there.

這將需要更多時間，但我們再次在這方面取得了巨大進展。

And so, again, as I've said, the last couple of quarters, our focus in auto is to profitably grow it.

因此，正如我所說，過去幾個季度，我們在汽車領域的重點是實現獲利成長。

Our focus in home is to improve profitability.

我們在國內的重點是提高獲利能力。

Given our focus on portfolio business, those two things kind of go hand in hand.

鑑於我們對投資組合業務的關注，這兩件事是齊頭並進的。

And that's what I mean when I say we're trying to balance growth and profitability across the book, but it's definitely a strong focus of ours.

這就是我說我們正在努力平衡整個帳簿的成長和獲利能力時的意思，但這絕對是我們的重點。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then one for Greg.

然後是格雷格的一張。

I'm just curious, Greg, any kind of insight into what workers comp pricing might look like going forward?

我只是好奇，格雷格，對未來工人薪酬定價可能會是什麼樣子有什麼見解嗎？

I think we've heard there may be a state or so, you might get some positive stuff out of ratings bureaus.

我想我們聽說可能有一個州左右，你可能會從評級機構那裡得到一些積極的東西。

Yeah, Brian.

是的，布萊恩。

This is Greg.

這是格雷格。

If I look at workers comp as a portfolio, I think we're going to see a continuation of what we're seeing right now.

如果我將工人薪酬視為投資組合，我認為我們將看到我們現在所看到的情況的延續。

And that really is driven based on the strong experience in on the line.

這確實是基於豐富的在線經驗驅動的。

And we certainly as leaders in that line have demonstrated that.

作為這方面的領導者，我們當然已經證明了這一點。

And so, when you look at the bureau's NCCI being the largest one.

因此，當你看到該局的 NCCI 是最大的一個。

What we're looking at for a forecast in 2025 for a loss cost recommendation, it's very similar to what we saw in 2024.

我們對 2025 年損失成本建議的預測與我們在 2024 年看到的非常相似。

Of course, that doesn't apply to every individual account.

當然，這並不適用於每個個人帳戶。

We will have the e-mods and et cetera on the individual account.

我們將在個人帳戶上提供電子模組等。

But I think it's going to stay with the levels that it's at right now.

但我認為它將保持目前的水平。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克，美國銀行。

Yeah.

是的。

More questions for Michael.

還有更多問題想問麥可。

You are very popular today.

你今天很受歡迎。

I wanted to talk a little about first of the favorable development in the personal line segment.

我想先談談個人線路領域的有利發展。

What years were it throwing off favorable development?

哪幾年它出現了好的發展？

And does that mean to some extent you may have overreact some on pricing in some states?

這是否意味著在某種程度上您可能對某些州的定價反應過度？

Hey, Josh, it's Dan.

嘿，喬什，我是丹。

So I'll start with the PYD story.

我將從 PYD 的故事開始。

Part of the PYD story, remember the end of 2023 was really favorable in personal insurance and it was also brand new.

作為 PYD 故事的一部分，請記住 2023 年底對個人保險來說非常有利，而且也是全新的。

The fourth quarter was terrifically strong from a profit perspective.

從利潤角度來看，第四季非常強勁。

It wasn't fully developed.

它還沒有完全開發出來。

We posted a really good number in the fourth quarter last year, but we were allowing for the uncertainty that for some of those claims going to come later were some of the ones that did come, going to come with more severity.

我們在去年第四季度公佈了一個非常好的數字，但我們考慮到了不確定性，即對於稍後出現的一些索賠，以及確實出現的一些索賠，將會更加嚴重。

Nine months further, we're just more confident.

再過九個月，我們就更有信心了。

But if I look at the spread of accident years in personal insurance favorable prior year reserve development, there is favorability in recent years.

但如果我看看意外事故年份在個人保險有利的前一年準備金發展中的分佈，近年來就有有利的情況。

But if I look at the last 10 years, there is favorability in each and every one of the last 10 years.

但如果我看看過去10年，過去10年每一年都有好感。

And I'll leave the pricing question to Michael.

我將把定價問題留給邁克爾。

Yeah.

是的。

Josh, I would say in terms of, did we overreact on pricing?

喬希，我想說的是，我們對定價反應過度了嗎？

Again, I would reiterate the comment I made in response to Elyse, which is as we look across the book, we're rate adequate.

我再次重申我對 Elyse 的評論，即當我們瀏覽這本書時，我們的評價是足夠的。

And I'd also point you to the combined ratio for the year-to-date, if you add back prior to your development to try to get to a accident year type number, that number is

我還想向您指出今年迄今為止的綜合比率，如果您在開發之前加回以嘗試獲得事故年份類型數字，則該數字是

[97.4].

[97.4]。

So I don't think that would be an indication that we've overshot.

所以我不認為這表明我們已經超越了。

That that makes sense.

這是有道理的。

And so, we've had two quarters now with about $170 million and $180 million of prior favorable development in the personalized segment.

因此，我們已經有兩個季度在個人化領域取得了約 1.7 億美元和 1.8 億美元的先前有利發展。

A lot of times there's a certain trend and when that trend deviates throws off favorable development.

很多時候存在某種趨勢，當趨勢偏離時就會阻礙有利的發展。

But are these discrete things that you've noticed that make this degree of favorable development probably less likely to be sustainable if the trends continue?

但是，如果這種趨勢繼續下去，您注意到的這些離散的事情是否會導致這種程度的有利發展可能不太可能持續？

Or could we continue to see hundreds of million dollars of favorable development if just the trends keep playing out?

或者，如果趨勢繼續發展，我們能否繼續看到數億美元的有利發展？

I hope I'm asking the question appropriately.

我希望我問的問題是恰當的。

Yeah, Josh.

是的，喬許。

It's Dan.

是丹.

I think I get it and I'm glad you asked it.

我想我明白了，我很高興你問這個問題。

I mean, I think if there's two words that I would not put in a sentence together, it's prior reserve development and trend or run rate.

我的意思是，我認為如果有兩個字我不會放在一個句子中，那就是先前的儲備發展和趨勢或運行率。

I think we tell you this pretty consistently, we look at all the data as it comes in every quarter.

我認為我們非常一致地告訴你這一點，我們會查看每個季度的所有數據。

We do thorough reviews of every line, every quarter.

我們每季都會對每條生產線進行徹底的審查。

We're just trying to get it right.

我們只是想把事情做好。

What you've seen probably in the last couple of years when loss costs were elevated in '22 and '23, we said we want to get it right.

您可能在過去幾年中看到了 22 年和 23 年損失成本上升的情況，我們說我們希望糾正這一情況。

But in getting it right, we want to acknowledge the fact that if there's an elevated level of uncertainty, we're going to contemplate in that in our reserves.

但在正確實施的過程中，我們要承認這樣一個事實：如果不確定性升高，我們將在我們的儲備中考慮這一點。

And now, if you've seen some of the inflationary pressures come back down to a more normal level, some of those years have matured and aged out, that's sort of what you're seeing.

現在，如果你看到一些通膨壓力回到了更正常的水平，那麼其中一些年份已經成熟和老化，這就是你所看到的。

So you may or may not believe it, I literally don't have a view of whether prior year reserve development is going to be higher or lower or sideways in PI in the next several quarters.

所以你可能相信也可能不相信，我確實不知道未來幾季的 PI 中去年的儲備開發是否會更高、更低或橫盤。

But that's the way we think about it.

但這就是我們的想法。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

I'm going to go back to the BI casually renewals price changing for a second.

我要回到 BI 隨意續訂價格變化一秒鐘。

From another side, when you have gotten more rate today than last quarter.

從另一個方面來說，今天你獲得的利率比上個季度更高。

And then I hear your answers, Alan about uncertainty and geopolitical risk and social and economic.

然後我聽到你的回答，艾倫，關於不確定性、地緣政治風險以及社會和經濟問題。

We talked about stuff for years.

我們談了很多年的事情。

I guess when you're getting more rate today than last quarter with such strong current core margins, does it mean Alan that your concerns on those things that answered are more today than they were last year the year before when you started talking about them?

我想當你今天獲得的利率比上個季度更高且當前核心利潤率如此強勁時，這是否意味著艾倫你對今天回答的那些事情的擔憂比去年你開始談論它們時的擔憂更多？

Does it mean that we're more concerned about it?

這是否意味著我們更關心它？

No

不

--

--

(multiple speakers) That's the answer -- that's the question.

（多名發言者） 這就是答案──這就是問題。

Are you more concerned today than maybe you were last year?

您今天比去年更擔心嗎？

I wouldn't say that we're more concerned today.

我不會說我們今天更擔心。

We can't really think about this sort of static at a point in time.

我們無法在某個時間點真正考慮這種靜態情況。

We're thinking about this looking out the windshield of the future and loss trend is certainly positive, and we'd like pricing to keep up with that.

我們正在考慮這一點，展望未來，損失趨勢肯定是積極的，我們希望定價能夠跟上這一點。

But I would not say that we're more concerned today.

但我不會說我們今天更擔心。

I do think one thing you get with Travelers is pretty early detection and reaction to changes in loss activity.

我確實認為，旅行者透過旅行者獲得的一件事是，可以及早發現損失活動的變化並做出反應。

And so, I don't know where it's going to go, but we feel pretty good about the actions that we've taken so far this year.

因此，我不知道它會走向何方，但我們對今年迄今為止所採取的行動感到非常滿意。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

A quick one maybe for Jeff perhaps.

也許對傑夫來說是一個快速的。

Any updates you can share with, I guess loss trends in the management liability section.

您可以分享的任何更新，我猜是管理責任部分的損失趨勢。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Not specific to loss trend.

不特定於損失趨勢。

I called out in this script for you and again, this is Jeff Klenk.

我在這個劇本中再次向您喊話，這是傑夫克倫克。

We said that the pricing had an unfavorable impact on the underlying combined ratio.

我們表示，定價對基本綜合成本率產生了不利影響。

I point out though that the pricing strategy is a function of rate accuracy, the returns in the business have been excellent.

我指出，儘管定價策略是費率準確性的函數，但業務回報非常好。

Our renewal pricing reflects deliberate execution.

我們的續訂定價反映了深思熟慮的執行。

I feel great about the renewal retention percentage at 90%.

我對 90% 的續約保留率感覺很好。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I will now turn the call back over to Abbe Goldstein for some final closing remarks.

現在，我將把電話轉回給阿貝·戈爾茨坦，讓其發表最後的結束語。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you all for joining us this morning.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。

Appreciate the questions.

感謝您提出的問題。

And as always, if there's any follow up, please get in touch with investor relations.

與往常一樣，如果有任何後續情況，請與投資者關係部門聯繫。

Have a good day.

祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。