旅行家集團 (TRV) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the first quarter results teleconference for Travelers. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on April 19, 2023.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎來到旅行者第一季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2023 年 4 月 19 日錄製。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Abbe Goldstein 女士。 Goldstein 女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our first quarter 2023 results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎來到旅行者討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。今天上午早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿、財務增刊和網絡廣播演示文稿。所有這些材料都可以在我們網站 travelers.com 的“投資者”部分找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our 3 segment presidents: Gregory Toczydlowski of Business Insurance, Jeffrey Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance. They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take questions.

今天發言的是董事長兼首席執行官 Alan Schnitzer；首席財務官 Dan Frey；以及我們的 3 位分部總裁：商業保險的 Gregory Toczydlowski、債券與專業保險的 Jeffrey Klenk；和個人保險的 Michael Klein。他們將討論我們業務的財務業績和當前的市場環境。他們將在完成準備好的評論時參考網絡廣播演示文稿，然後我們將回答問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors.

在我將電話轉給 Alan 之前，我想提請您注意網絡廣播演示文稿末尾的解釋性說明。我們今天的演講包括前瞻性陳述。公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，並不是對未來業績的保證。由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Also, in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in the Investors section on our website.

這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿和我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 和 10-K 報告中的前瞻性陳述中有所描述。我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。此外，在我們的評論或對問題的回答中，我們可能會提到一些非 GAAP 財務措施。我們最近發布的收益新聞稿、財務補充資料和我們網站“投資者”部分提供的其他材料中均包含對賬。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

現在我想把電話轉給 Alan Schnitzer。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We're very pleased to report a terrific start to the year, including an excellent bottom line result for the quarter, particularly in light of the high level of severe weather activity across the United States, and very strong production in all 3 of our business segments, which produced net written premium growth of 12% for the quarter.

謝謝你，阿貝。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。我們非常高興地報告今年開局良好，包括本季度出色的底線結果，特別是考慮到美國各地的惡劣天氣活動水平高，以及我們所有 3 個業務的強勁生產本季度淨承保保費增長 12%。

Profitability and growth in our Business Insurance segment were particularly strong. And as you'll hear from Michael, we're positioned for improved profitability in our Personal lines business. Core income for the quarter was $970 million, or $4.11 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 14.5%. Core income benefited from record net earned premiums of $8.9 billion, up 10% compared to the prior-year period, an excellent underlying combined ratio of 90.6% and a onetime tax benefit.

我們的商業保險部門的盈利能力和增長尤為強勁。正如您將從邁克爾那裡聽到的那樣，我們的定位是提高個人專線業務的盈利能力。本季度核心收入為 9.7 億美元，或每股攤薄收益 4.11 美元，核心股本回報率為 14.5%。核心收入受益於創紀錄的 89 億美元淨賺保費，比上年同期增長 10%，優秀的基礎綜合成本率為 90.6%，以及一次性稅收優惠。

Catastrophe losses were elevated as the industry experienced the highest number of Q1 PCS catastrophe events since PCS started tracking in the 1950s.

由於該行業經歷了自 1950 年代 PCS 開始追踪以來數量最多的第一季度 PCS 災難事件，災難損失有所增加。

Turning to investments. Our high-quality portfolio generated net investment income of $557 million after tax for the quarter, reflecting reliable results from our fixed income portfolio and positive returns from our non-fixed income portfolio. Our underwriting and investment results, together with our strong balance sheet, enabled us to return $680 million of excess capital to shareholders, including $462 million of share repurchases.

轉向投資。我們的優質投資組合在本季度產生了 5.57 億美元的稅後淨投資收益，反映了我們固定收益投資組合的可靠結果和非固定收益投資組合的正回報。我們的承銷和投資業績，加上強勁的資產負債表，使我們能夠向股東返還 6.8 億美元的超額資本，包括 4.62 億美元的股票回購。

At the same time, we grew adjusted book value per share and made important investments in our business as we notched another quarter of successful execution on a number of important strategic initiatives. In light of our strong financial position and confidence in the outlook for our business, I'm pleased to share that our Board of Directors declared an 8% increase in our quarterly cash dividend to $1 per share, marking 19 consecutive years of dividend increases with a compound annual growth rate of 8% over that period. The Board also authorized an additional $5 billion of share repurchases.

與此同時，我們增加了調整後的每股賬面價值，並對我們的業務進行了重要投資，因為我們又成功執行了許多重要的戰略計劃。鑑於我們強大的財務狀況和對我們業務前景的信心，我很高興地與大家分享，我們的董事會宣布我們的季度現金股息增加 8% 至每股 1 美元，標誌著股息連續 19 年增加在此期間的複合年增長率為 8%。董事會還額外批准了 50 億美元的股票回購。

Turning to the top line in production. Thanks once again to excellent execution by our colleagues in the field. We grew net written premiums by 12% this quarter to a record $9.4 billion with all 3 segments contributing. In Business Insurance, we grew net written premiums by 15% to $5.2 billion. You may recall that we entered into a quota share arrangement with Fidelis for 2023. This contributed about $160 million or around 3.5 percentage points net written premium growth in the segment. Results from the quota share are not reflected in our production statistics.

轉向生產的頂線。再次感謝我們在該領域的同事的出色執行。本季度我們的淨承保保費增長了 12%，達到創紀錄的 94 億美元，所有 3 個部門都做出了貢獻。在商業保險方面，我們的淨承保保費增長了 15%，達到 52 億美元。您可能還記得，我們與 Fidelis 簽訂了 2023 年的配額份額安排。這為該部門貢獻了約 1.6 億美元或約 3.5 個百分點的淨承保保費增長。配額份額的結果未反映在我們的生產統計數據中。

Renewal premium change in Business Insurance remained historically high at 9.6%. Per renewal rate change ticked up a little bit from the fourth quarter, driven by the property, umbrella and auto lines. Even with continued strong pricing broadly, retention in Business Insurance was very strong at 87%. New business of $639 million was a record and up 17% from the prior-year period.

商業保險的續保保費變化保持在 9.6% 的歷史高位。在財產、雨傘和汽車線的推動下，每次續約率變化從第四季度開始略有上升。即使定價普遍持續強勁，商業保險的保留率也非常高，達到 87%。新業務達到 6.39 億美元，創歷史新高，比去年同期增長 17%。

In Bond & Specialty Insurance, net written premiums increased slightly from a very strong level in the prior-year quarter with excellent retention of 90% and new business growth of 25% in our management liability business, and a record level of Q1 net written premium in our surety business. Given the attractive returns and the high quality of business in our commercial segments, we are very pleased with strong production results in these businesses.

在債券和專業保險方面，淨承保保費較上年同期的強勁水平略有增長，我們的管理責任業務保留率高達 90%，新業務增長 25%，第一季度淨承保保費創歷史新高在我們的擔保業務中。鑑於我們的商業部門具有可觀的回報和高質量的業務，我們對這些業務的強勁生產結果感到非常滿意。

In Personal Insurance, top line growth of 12% was driven by higher pricing. Renewal premium change increased to 20.2% in our homeowners and other business and a 13.9% in our auto business. Another quarter of terrific production across the board positions us well for the year ahead. You'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results.

在人身保險方面，12% 的收入增長是由更高的定價推動的。我們的房主和其他業務的續保保費變化增加到 20.2%，我們的汽車業務增加到 13.9%。另外四分之一的全面出色生產為我們來年做好了準備。您很快就會從 Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 那裡聽到更多有關我們部門業績的信息。

In light of the recent disruption in the banking sector, I'd like to share a reminder about how our business differs from those in the headlines. We often talk about the high quality of our investment portfolio, and I'll get back to that. But first, let me say a few words about our prudent management of that portfolio.

鑑於最近銀行業的混亂，我想提醒大家注意我們的業務與頭條新聞中的業務有何不同。我們經常談論我們投資組合的高質量，我會回到那個話題。但首先，讓我談談我們對該投資組合的審慎管理。

The banking sector disruption started with an acceleration of liabilities in the form of withdrawals from demand deposit accounts. As we all know, there's no acceleration of our largest liabilities, loss reserves. In other words, there's no such thing as a run on the bank in our business. But the banking episode also highlighted the risk to the equity of an enterprise when the duration of assets and liabilities are mismatched. We manage the duration of our assets relative to our liabilities such that on an economic basis, we've effectively diffused our insurance liabilities.

銀行業的混亂始於活期存款賬戶提款形式的負債加速增長。眾所周知，我們最大的負債損失準備金沒有加速增長。換句話說，在我們的業務中不存在銀行擠兌這樣的事情。但銀行業的事件也凸顯了當資產和負債的久期不匹配時，企業權益的風險。我們管理資產相對於負債的久期，因此在經濟基礎上，我們有效地分散了保險負債。

In other words, increases or decreases in interest rates generally have offsetting impacts on the present value of both our investment portfolio and our outstanding insurance liabilities. This essentially boxes the economic impact of changes in interest rates. As we've explained in response to your questions over the years, this is a reason why we didn't reach for yield by increasing duration in the low interest rate environment over the past 1.5 decades.

換句話說，利率的上升或下降通常會對我們的投資組合和未償還保險負債的現值產生抵消影響。這基本上限制了利率變化的經濟影響。正如我們多年來在回答您的問題時所解釋的那樣，這就是為什麼我們在過去 1.5 年的低利率環境中沒有通過增加久期來達到收益率的原因。

In addition to duration, the bank solvency issues also highlighted the importance of thoughtfully managing liquidity. Quarter in and quarter out, we've consistently generated strong cash flows from operations. Our cash flows from premiums alone over the course of the year are consistently greater than our annual payments for claims and expenses. That was true throughout the 2008 financial crisis and more recently throughout the pandemic.

除了久期，銀行償付能力問題也凸顯了謹慎管理流動性的重要性。一個季度又一個季度，我們一直從運營中產生強勁的現金流。我們一年中僅來自保費的現金流就一直高於我們每年支付的理賠和費用。在整個 2008 年金融危機和最近的整個大流行期間都是如此。

We also have a steady and reliable stream of cash flows from our very high-quality fixed income portfolio. In addition to the periodic interest payments we receive on the bonds we hold, the proceeds from our maturing investment sheet each month provide an additional source of liquidity. Back to the high quality of our investment portfolio, macroeconomic uncertainty reminds us of how important that is and the quality of our holdings and our disciplined focus on risk-adjusted returns distinguish us.

我們的高質量固定收益投資組合還擁有穩定可靠的現金流。除了我們持有的債券定期收到的利息外，我們每月從到期投資表中獲得的收益提供了額外的流動性來源。回到我們投資組合的高質量，宏觀經濟的不確定性提醒我們這是多麼重要，我們持有的資產的質量以及我們對風險調整後回報的嚴格關注使我們與眾不同。

Our fixed income investments are highly diversified. They have an average credit rating of AA and comprise 93% of our investments. Our alternative investments are also high quality and well diversified. Page 20 of our webcast presentation includes further details.

我們的固定收益投資高度多元化。他們的平均信用評級為 AA，占我們投資的 93%。我們的另類投資也是高質量和多元化的。我們網絡廣播演示文稿的第 20 頁包含更多詳細信息。

To address another topic that's been in the news lately, Page 21 of the webcast presentation includes information demonstrating the relatively nominal risk we have in our investment portfolio related to commercial real estate. Real estate represents a small percentage of our total invested assets. Our fixed income real estate investments are very high quality and the largest component of our non-fixed income real estate investments is wholly owned properties. The wholly owned properties are carried at their depreciated historical cost. In other words, they were never written up when market values were high and the appraised value of the portfolio is well above book value.

為了解決最近出現在新聞中的另一個話題，網絡廣播演示文稿的第 21 頁包含的信息表明我們在與商業房地產相關的投資組合中存在相對名義上的風險。房地產占我們總投資資產的一小部分。我們的固定收益房地產投資質量非常高，我們非固定收益房地產投資的最大組成部分是全資擁有的房地產。全資擁有的物業按折舊曆史成本入賬。換句話說，當市場價值很高並且投資組合的評估價值遠高於賬面價值時，它們從未被增持。

The portfolio has also produced a strong free cash flow yield. In short, whether we're talking about underwriting or investing, Travelers is built to manage through uncertain times.

該投資組合還產生了強勁的自由現金流收益率。簡而言之，無論我們是在談論承銷還是投資，Travellers 都是為應對不確定時期而建立的。

Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'll share with you that we just returned from our annual conference with our most significant distribution partners who collectively represent more than half of our premium. We all left with the continued confidence that our relationships with these business leaders and their firms are strong as ever and feeling tremendous support for the strategic initiatives that we have underway. It's a great reminder that our position with distribution sets us apart and is an important competitive advantage. It's hard to replicate.

在我將電話轉給 Dan 之前，我將與您分享我們剛剛與我們最重要的分銷合作夥伴舉行的年度會議回來，他們共同代表了我們保費的一半以上。離開時，我們都堅信我們與這些商業領袖及其公司的關係一如既往地牢固，並感受到對我們正在進行的戰略舉措的巨大支持。這是一個很好的提醒，我們在分銷方面的地位使我們與眾不同，並且是一個重要的競爭優勢。很難復制。

To sum things up, we're off to a great start for the year with another quarter of strong profitability and growth driven by our underwriting and investment expertise. At the same time, we continue to successfully execute on our innovation strategy which has contributed to significantly accelerated premium growth, superior returns and industry low volatility over the past decade. With the best talent in the industry, we remain well positioned for success through a wide range of economic and operating environments and confident in our ability to continue to create shareholder value over time.

總而言之，在我們的承銷和投資專業知識的推動下，我們今年有了一個良好的開端，又一個季度實現了強勁的盈利能力和增長。與此同時，我們繼續成功執行我們的創新戰略，該戰略在過去十年中顯著加速了保費增長、卓越的回報和行業低波動性。憑藉業內最優秀的人才，我們在廣泛的經濟和運營環境中保持成功的有利條件，並相信我們有能力隨著時間的推移繼續創造股東價值。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

有了這個，我很高興把電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Alan. Core income for the first quarter was $970 million and core return on equity was 14.5%. Compared to the prior year, this year's first quarter results included a significantly higher level of catastrophe losses and a lower level of favorable prior year reserve development. Those unfavorable items were largely offset by higher underlying -- underwriting income including a onetime tax benefit. The tax benefit impacts the income tax line only and thus does not impact the combined ratio or the underlying combined ratio.

謝謝你，艾倫。第一季度核心收入為 9.7 億美元，核心股本回報率為 14.5%。與上一年相比，今年第一季度的結果包括巨災損失水平明顯更高，而有利的前一年儲備開發水平更低。這些不利項目在很大程度上被更高的基礎——承保收入所抵消，包括一次性稅收優惠。稅收優惠僅影響所得稅線，因此不會影響綜合比率或基礎綜合比率。

Our first quarter results include $535 million of pretax cat losses, significantly higher than the prior year's benign results and about $160 million above the average of our first quarter cat losses for the past 5 years. Our pretax underlying underwriting gain of $797 million was $131 million higher than the prior year quarter, reflecting higher levels of earned premium and an improved underlying combined ratio of 90.6%. Results were again very strong in both Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty, while in Personal Insurance, we made significant progress in obtaining price increases that position us to get back to target returns.

我們第一季度的業績包括 5.35 億美元的稅前巨災損失，顯著高於上一年的良性結果，比我們過去 5 年第一季度巨災損失的平均水平高出約 1.6 億美元。我們的稅前基礎承保收益為 7.97 億美元，比去年同期高出 1.31 億美元，反映出較高的已賺保費水平和 90.6% 的基礎綜合成本率的改善。商業保險和債券與專業保險的業績再次非常強勁，而在人身保險方面，我們在獲得價格上漲方面取得了重大進展，使我們能夠回到目標回報率。

The first quarter expense ratio of 28.7% was again very strong. Our ongoing investments in strategic initiatives are balanced by our continued focus on productivity and efficiency and strong top line growth, resulting in an expense ratio that, as expected, was broadly consistent with last year's first quarter and full year figures.

第一季度 28.7% 的費用率再次非常強勁。我們對戰略計劃的持續投資與我們對生產力和效率的持續關注以及強勁的收入增長相平衡，導致費用率如預期的那樣與去年第一季度和全年的數據大致一致。

We reported net favorable prior-year reserve development of $105 million pretax in the first quarter. In Business Insurance, net favorable PYD of $19 million pretax was driven by another quarter of favorable development in workers' comp, largely offset by an increase for umbrella liability coverages and environmental exposure in our runoff book.

我們報告第一季度稅前淨有利前一年儲備金發展為 1.05 億美元。在商業保險中，1900 萬美元的稅前淨有利 PYD 是由工人補償的另一個季度有利發展推動的，這在很大程度上被我們決選書中的總括責任保險和環境風險的增加所抵消。

In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD of $58 million pretax was driven by better-than-expected results in both surety and management liability. Personal Insurance recorded $28 million pretax of net favorable PYD, driven by improvement in the homeowners book. After-tax net investment income increased 3% from the prior year quarter to $557 million.

在 Bond & Specialty 中，保證和管理責任方面的業績好於預期，推動了 5800 萬美元的稅前淨有利 PYD。人身保險錄得 2800 萬美元的淨有利 PYD 稅前收入，這得益於房主賬簿的改善。稅後淨投資收益較上年同期增長 3% 至 5.57 億美元。

Fixed income NII was higher than in the prior-year quarter, benefiting from both higher fixed income yields and a higher level of invested assets. Returns in our non-fixed income portfolio remained positive but were, as expected, less favorable than in last year's quarter. We are raising our outlook for fixed income NII, including earnings from short-term securities to $530 million after tax in the second quarter, growing to approximately $555 million in the third quarter and then to around $575 million in the fourth quarter.

固定收益 NII 高於去年同期，這得益於較高的固定收益收益率和較高的投資資產水平。我們的非固定收益投資組合的回報率仍然為正，但正如預期的那樣不如去年同期。我們正在上調固定收益 NII 的前景，包括第二季度的稅後短期證券收益至 5.3 億美元，第三季度增長至約 5.55 億美元，然後在第四季度增長至約 5.75 億美元。

Remember, only about 10% of the portfolio turns over each year, so the higher new money rates will take a while to fully impact run rate NII. Regarding the tax line, this quarter included a onetime tax benefit of $211 million with respect to the repeal of Internal Revenue Code Section 847, which addressed the discounting of property casualty loss reserves. And as a reminder, last year's first quarter included a $47 million benefit from the favorable resolution of our most recent federal income tax audit.

請記住，每年只有大約 10% 的投資組合周轉，因此更高的新貨幣利率將需要一段時間才能完全影響運行率 NII。關於稅項，本季度包括與廢除《國內稅收法》第 847 條相關的一次性稅收優惠 2.11 億美元，該條款涉及財產傷亡損失準備金的貼現。提醒一下，去年第一季度包括我們最近一次聯邦所得稅審計的有利決議帶來的 4700 萬美元收益。

Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter of $1 billion were again very strong. All our capital ratios were at or better than target levels, and we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $1.6 billion. As interest rates decreased during the quarter, our net unrealized investment loss decreased from $4.9 billion after tax at year-end to $3.9 billion after tax at March 31.

轉向資本管理。該季度的運營現金流為 10 億美元，再次非常強勁。我們所有的資本比率都達到或優於目標水平，本季度末我們的控股公司流動資金約為 16 億美元。由於本季度利率下降，我們的淨未實現投資虧損從年底的稅後 49 億美元減少到 3 月 31 日的稅後 39 億美元。

Remember, the changes in unrealized investment gains and losses do not impact how we manage our investment portfolio. We generally hold fixed income investments to maturity. The quality of our fixed income portfolio remains very high. And changes in unrealized gains and losses have little or no impact on our cash flows, statutory surplus or regulatory capital requirements.

請記住，未實現投資損益的變化不會影響我們管理投資組合的方式。我們通常持有固定收益投資至到期日。我們固定收益投資組合的質量仍然非常高。未實現損益的變化對我們的現金流量、法定盈餘或監管資本要求影響很小或沒有影響。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes unrealized investment gains and losses, was $116.55 at quarter end, up 2% from year-end and up 4% from a year ago. We returned $680 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter, including share repurchases of $462 million and dividends of $218 million. As Alan mentioned earlier, our Board authorized an 8% increase in the quarterly dividend to $1 per share and also authorized an additional $5 billion of share repurchases on top of the $1.6 billion remaining under the prior authorization.

調整後的每股賬面價值（不包括未實現的投資收益和損失）在季度末為 116.55 美元，比年底增長 2%，比去年同期增長 4%。本季度我們向股東返還了 6.8 億美元的資本，包括 4.62 億美元的股票回購和 2.18 億美元的股息。正如艾倫之前提到的，我們的董事會授權將季度股息增加 8% 至每股 1 美元，並且還授權在先前授權剩餘的 16 億美元基礎上額外回購 50 億美元的股票。

Let me wrap up my comments today on a personal note. A few weeks ago, we announced that on June 2, our friend and colleague, Doug Russell, will retire after a 40-plus-year career, about 25 of which have been with Travelers. For the past 5 years or so, Doug has held 2 very important roles, Corporate Controller and Treasurer. Doug is knowledgeable. He is unflappable and he is one of the very nicest people you could ever have the good fortune to know. He's also a great teacher. And in addition to being invaluable to me when I took over the corporate CFO role, Doug has positioned us well for the future. We're fortunate to have 2 highly capable long-time Travelers' employees ready to step in. Paul Munson will take over as Corporate Controller and Larry Mills will take over as Treasurer. Thank you, Doug, for all that you have done for the success of our company as well as for the success of the finance professionals who've had the privilege of working for you and working with you.

讓我以個人筆記結束我今天的評論。幾週前，我們宣布將於 6 月 2 日退休，我們的朋友兼同事 Doug Russell 將在 40 多年的職業生涯後退休，其中約 25 年是在 Travellers 工作的。在過去 5 年左右的時間裡，Doug 擔任過 2 個非常重要的角色，即公司財務總監和財務主管。道格知識淵博。他很鎮定，是您有幸認識的最好的人之一。他也是一位偉大的老師。除了在我接任公司首席財務官一職時對我來說非常寶貴之外，Doug 還為我們的未來做好了準備。我們很幸運有 2 名能力超群的長期 Travellers 員工準備介入。Paul Munson 將接任公司財務總監，Larry Mills 將接任財務主管。感謝您，Doug，感謝您為我們公司的成功所做的一切，也感謝有幸為您工作並與您共事的財務專業人士的成功。

And now I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of Business Insurance.

現在我將把電話轉給格雷格，討論商業保險。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance continues to deliver exceptional results with a strong first quarter of 2023 in terms of both top and bottom line results. Segment income of $756 million, was up 13% from the first quarter of 2022, driven by higher underlying underwriting income. In addition to higher earned premium and the lower underlying combined ratio, underlying underwriting income also benefited from the segment share of the onetime tax benefit that Dan mentioned.

謝謝，丹。商業保險繼續取得卓越業績，2023 年第一季度的頂線和底線業績均表現強勁。在基礎承保收入增加的推動下，分部收入為 7.56 億美元，比 2022 年第一季度增長 13%。除了較高的已賺保費和較低的基礎綜合比率外，基礎承保收入還受益於 Dan 提到的一次性稅收優惠的分部份額。

We're once again particularly pleased with the quarter's underlying combined ratio of 89.6%, which was more than 2 points better than the prior-year quarter. The improvement was driven by the loss ratio, which benefited from property losses that were lower than a somewhat elevated level in the prior-year quarter and the benefit of earned pricing. The expense ratio was a strong 29.8% and continues to benefit from the combination of the leverage from higher earned premiums and our strategic focus on productivity and efficiency.

我們再次對本季度 89.6% 的基礎綜合成本率感到特別滿意，這比去年同期高出 2 個百分點以上。這一改善是由損失率推動的，損失率受益於財產損失低於去年同期略高的水平，以及盈利定價的好處。費用比率高達 29.8%，並繼續受益於較高已賺保費的槓桿作用以及我們對生產力和效率的戰略重點。

Net written premiums increased 15% to an all-time quarterly high of $5.2 billion, benefiting from historically high renewal premium change and retention as well as record new business levels. As you heard from Alan, the Fidelis quota share also contributed to the higher net written premiums.

淨承保保費增長 15% 至 52 億美元的歷史季度新高，受益於歷史最高的續保保費變動和保留率以及創紀錄的新業務水平。正如您從艾倫那裡聽到的那樣，Fidelis 配額份額也促成了更高的淨承保保費。

Turning to domestic production for the quarter. Renewal premium change was once again historically high at 9.6%, with renewal rate change ticking up sequentially to 4.7% and continued strong exposure growth. Retention of 87% also remained exceptional while new business was up 17% from the first quarter of last year to a record high of $639 million.

轉向本季度的國內生產。續約保費變化率再次創歷史新高，達到 9.6%，續約率變化率連續上升至 4.7%，風險敞口繼續強勁增長。 87% 的保留率也非常出色，而新業務比去年第一季度增長 17%，達到 6.39 億美元的歷史新高。

We're thrilled with these production results and our field superior execution in the marketplace. In terms of pricing, we're pleased to be able to sustain strong levels of renewal premium change to address the persistent environmental headwinds. And given our high-quality book as well as several years of meaningful price increases and improvements in terms and conditions, we're very pleased to continue to produce historically strong retention levels.

我們對這些生產結果和我們在市場上的卓越執行力感到非常興奮。在定價方面，我們很高興能夠維持強勁的續訂保費變化水平，以應對持續的環境逆風。鑑於我們的高質量書籍以及幾年有意義的價格上漲和條款和條件的改進，我們很高興繼續產生歷史上強勁的保留水平。

Lastly, we are particularly pleased that our ongoing focus on our strategic investments help us drive an increased flow of new business opportunities, and we capitalized on those opportunities by being more responsive in quoting and converting our more quality accounts during the quarter.

最後，我們特別高興的是，我們對戰略投資的持續關注幫助我們推動了新業務機會的增加，並且我們通過在本季度更快地報價和轉換我們更優質的客戶來利用這些機會。

As for the individual businesses, in Select, renewal premium change remained strong at 10%, while retention increased to point to an exceptional 84%. New business increased 16% from the prior-year quarter to $129 million, driven particularly by the continued success of our BOP 2.0 product.

至於個體業務，在 Select 中，續訂保費變化保持在 10% 的強勁水平，而保留率則增加到 84% 的異常水平。新業務較上年同期增長 16% 至 1.29 億美元，這主要得益於我們 BOP 2.0 產品的持續成功。

In Middle Market, renewal premium change was 8.1%, with renewal rate change increasing sequentially to 4.4%, while exposure growth was once again strong at 4.1%. Retention remained exceptional at 89% and new business was up 19% from the prior-year quarter with increases across all account sizes in most markets.

在中端市場，續約保費變化為 8.1%，續約率變化環比上升至 4.4%，而風險敞口增長再次強勁，達到 4.1%。保留率保持在 89% 的出色水平，新業務比去年同期增長 19%，大多數市場的所有賬戶規模都有所增長。

As I mentioned a moment ago, we're pleased with the impact that our focus on strategic initiatives is having on our production results. To sum up, Business Insurance had a great start to the year. We continue to grow our profitable book while investing in capabilities to enhance our position as the undeniable choice for the customer and an indispensable partner for our agents and brokers.

正如我剛才提到的，我們很高興我們對戰略計劃的關注對我們的生產結果產生了影響。總而言之，商業保險今年開局良好。我們繼續擴大我們的盈利賬簿，同時投資於能力，以增強我們作為客戶不可否認的選擇以及我們的代理商和經紀人不可或缺的合作夥伴的地位。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty started the year with a great quarter on both the top and bottom lines. Segment income of $207 million was slightly lower than the prior-year quarter. Pretax income improved slightly as higher levels of net favorable prior-year reserve development and net investment income were mostly offset by losses related to disruption in the banking sector. A lower favorable income tax adjustment in the current quarter more than offset this pretax improvement.

謝謝，格雷格。 Bond & Specialty 在今年年初的營收和利潤都表現出色。分部收入為 2.07 億美元，略低於去年同期。稅前收入略有改善，因為較高水平的上年淨有利儲備開發和淨投資收入大部分被與銀行業中斷相關的損失所抵消。本季度較低的有利所得稅調整抵消了這一稅前改善。

The segment combined ratio was an excellent 80% for the quarter. The underlying combined ratio was a solid 86.1% with a 3.9 point increase primarily driven by losses related to a few financial institutions and a higher expense ratio, partially offset by the benefit of earned pricing. Our quality risk selection and disciplined limits management continue to position us well to navigate through uncertain economic conditions.

該季度的部門合併比率達到了出色的 80%。基礎綜合成本率為 86.1%，增長 3.9 個百分點，這主要是由於與一些金融機構相關的虧損和更高的費用率，部分被盈利定價的好處所抵消。我們的質量風險選擇和嚴格的限額管理繼續使我們能夠很好地應對不確定的經濟狀況。

Turning to the top line. Net written premiums were strong and consistent with our exceptional top line in the prior-year quarter, which, as you might recall, grew by over 20%. Domestic management liability, considering our strong returns, we're very pleased that retention continued to be at a near record 90%, a 5-point improvement from the prior-year quarter, and net renewal premium change was solid at 5%.

轉向頂線。淨承保保費強勁，與我們去年同期的出色收入一致，您可能還記得，該收入增長了 20% 以上。國內管理責任，考慮到我們強勁的回報，我們很高興保留率繼續保持在接近創紀錄的 90%，比去年同期提高 5 個百分點，淨續約保費變化穩定在 5%。

We're also pleased that we increased new business 25% from the prior-year quarter. As Alan mentioned during his opening remarks, we're pleased to have driven a very strong and record level of first quarter surety net written premiums. So both top and bottom line results for Bond & Specialty were terrific this quarter, driven by excellent execution, benefits from our ongoing strategic investments, and the market-leading competitive advantages and franchise value that we offer our customers and distribution partners.

我們也很高興我們的新業務比去年同期增加了 25%。正如艾倫在開場白中提到的那樣，我們很高興推動了第一季度保證淨承保保費的強勁和創紀錄水平。因此，本季度 Bond & Specialty 的收入和利潤都非常出色，這得益於出色的執行力、我們持續戰略投資的收益以及我們為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的市場領先的競爭優勢和特許經營價值。

And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

現在我會把電話轉給邁克爾。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In Personal Insurance, first quarter segment income was $83 million. The combined ratio of 101.5%, increased approximately 6 points from the first quarter of 2022, driven by higher catastrophe losses, primarily related to the significant tornado and hail events in March.

謝謝，傑夫，大家早上好。在人身保險方面，第一季度分部收入為 8300 萬美元。綜合成本率為 101.5%，比 2022 年第一季度增加了約 6 個百分點，原因是災難損失增加，主要與 3 月份的重大龍捲風和冰雹事件有關。

The underlying combined ratio of 92.9% was comparable to the prior year as the benefit of earned pricing across all products, lower losses in the homeowners and other product line and a lower expense ratio were offset by elevated losses in the automobile product line. Net written premiums for the quarter grew 12%, driven by double-digit renewal premium change in both domestic automobile and homeowners.

92.9% 的基礎綜合成本率與上一年相當，因為所有產品的盈利定價、房主和其他產品線的較低損失以及較低的費用率被汽車產品線的高損失所抵消。本季度的淨承保保費增長了 12%，這主要得益於國內汽車和房主的兩位數續保保費變化。

In automobile, the first quarter combined ratio was 104.7% with an underlying combined ratio of 103.4%. The underlying combined ratio increased 4.6 points from the prior year due to increased vehicle replacement and repair costs, higher bodily injury severity and to a lesser extent, higher frequency. These increases were partially offset by the growing benefit of earned pricing as well as the lower expense ratio.

在汽車方面，第一季度綜合成本率為 104.7%，基礎綜合成本率為 103.4%。由於車輛更換和維修成本增加、人身傷害嚴重程度增加以及在較小程度上增加頻率，基礎綜合比率比上一年增加了 4.6 個百分點。這些增長部分被賺取定價的收益增加以及較低的費用率所抵消。

In Homeowners & Other, the first quarter combined ratio of 98.5%, increased 7.3 points, primarily due to higher catastrophe losses. The underlying combined ratio of 82.7%, improved 4.2 points, reflecting lower losses associated with mild winter temperatures in the Eastern and Central United States as well as the benefit of earned pricing and a lower expense ratio. These benefits were partially offset by elevated loss severity from continued labor and materials price increases.

在房主及其他方面，第一季度綜合成本率為 98.5%，增長 7.3 個百分點，這主要是由於更高的巨災損失。基礎綜合成本率為 82.7%，提高了 4.2 個百分點，反映出與美國東部和中部冬季溫和氣溫相關的損失減少，以及盈利定價的好處和較低的費用率。這些收益被持續的勞動力和材料價格上漲導致的損失嚴重程度部分抵消。

As a reminder for homeowners, we expect the upcoming second quarter to be the seasonally highest quarter for weather-related losses.

作為對房主的提醒，我們預計即將到來的第二季度將是與天氣相關的損失的季節性最高季度。

Turning to production. Our results demonstrate the impact of rate and non-rate actions in both lines as we seek to improve profitability and manage growth. In domestic automobile, renewal premium change of 13.9% increased 2.5 points from the fourth quarter of 2022. We expect renewal premium change to be modestly higher than this level throughout the remainder of 2023.

轉向生產。我們的結果表明，在我們尋求提高盈利能力和管理增長的過程中，利率和非利率行動對兩條線的影響。在國內汽車中，續保費變化為 13.9%，比 2022 年第四季度增加了 2.5 個百分點。我們預計在 2023 年剩餘時間裡續保費變化將略高於這一水平。

We've shared previously that we expect written pricing in auto to be adequate in states representing the majority of our premium by midyear. While the loss environment is incrementally more challenging, we are adjusting our pricing plan accordingly, and still expect to get there or very close to it. We will continue to pursue rate increases necessary to deliver target returns and the benefits of this increased pricing will earn into our results over time.

我們之前曾分享過，我們預計到年中，汽車的書面定價在代表我們大部分保費的州是足夠的。雖然損失環境越來越具有挑戰性，但我們正在相應地調整我們的定價計劃，並且仍然希望達到或非常接近它。我們將繼續追求實現目標回報所必需的加息，隨著時間的推移，這種提高定價的好處將體現在我們的業績中。

As we've taken significant pricing actions, retention and growth in auto have continued to moderate as expected. Policies in force declined 1% from year-end 2022. In domestic homeowners and other, renewal premium change of 20.2% increased approximately 6 points from the fourth quarter. We expect renewal premium change to remain at this elevated level through the end of the year. In the phase of these increases, retention declined but remained strong. New business written premiums were in line compared to the prior year quarter and policies in force remain consistent relative to year-end 2022.

由於我們採取了重大的定價行動，汽車的保留率和增長如預期的那樣繼續放緩。有效保單較 2022 年底下降 1%。在國內房主和其他方面，續保保費變化 20.2%，較第四季度增加約 6 個百分點。我們預計到今年年底，續保保費變化將保持在這一較高水平。在這些增長階段，留存率下降但仍然強勁。與去年同期相比，新業務承保保費保持一致，現行保單與 2022 年底保持一致。

In Personal Insurance, we entered the year with continued focus on disciplined marketplace execution in response to a loss environment that remains challenging. In addition to making more progress in pricing, we continue to implement non-rate actions. Examples include tighter underwriting in both auto and home and improved pricing segmentation and risk selection in property.

在人身保險方面，我們在進入這一年時繼續關注有紀律的市場執行，以應對仍然充滿挑戰的損失環境。除了在定價方面取得更多進展外，我們繼續實施非利率行動。例子包括更嚴格的汽車和家庭承保，以及改進財產的定價細分和風險選擇。

We're encouraged by the progress we're making towards our goal of achieving target returns. While we have more work to do, we are confident that the actions we have taken and will continue to take will improve profitability as we move through 2023 and beyond.

我們為實現目標回報的目標所取得的進展感到鼓舞。儘管我們還有更多工作要做，但我們相信，我們已經採取並將繼續採取的行動將在 2023 年及以後提高盈利能力。

Now I'll turn the call back to Alan.

現在我會把電話轉回給艾倫。

Thanks, Michael. I'd like to add to Dan's recognition of Doug Russell. I met Doug in 2002 during Travelers' IPO. He's been a great friend and a source of endless expertise and insight ever since. Doug, we thank you, and we'll miss you, around this table in particular. And thanks for leaving us in such good hands. Abbe, back to you.

謝謝，邁克爾。我想補充一下 Dan 對 Doug Russell 的認可。我在 2002 年 Travelers 的 IPO 期間認識了 Doug。從那以後，他一直是一位好朋友，也是無盡專業知識和洞察力的源泉。道格，我們感謝你，我們會特別想念你，尤其是在這張桌子旁。感謝您將我們交到這麼好的人手中。阿貝，回到你身邊。

Thanks, Alan. Okay, we are ready to open up for your questions.

謝謝，艾倫。好的，我們準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

And I guess where I'd like to start off is on the top line growth in the business insurance, the 15%. I'm looking at Slide 8 of your presentation. Can you provide some color on the various lines that are going up? I was intrigued by national property and then at the geography of Fidelis. Is that an international -- and when I think about property, can you talk about where the growth is coming from in the context of what we're seeing in reinsurance costs?

我想我想從商業保險的收入增長 15% 開始。我正在看您演示文稿的幻燈片 8。你能為上升的各種線條提供一些顏色嗎？我對國家財產很感興趣，然後對 Fidelis 的地理位置很感興趣。那是一個國際——當我想到財產時，你能談談我們在再保險成本中看到的增長來自哪裡嗎？

Yes, this is Greg. First of all, I'll take the National Property one. Yes, clearly, we shared with you in the fourth quarter that post some of the severe weather activity in the fourth quarter, we did expect a hardening of the reinsurance market, and we are going to be in such a good position given our gross line underwriting mentality. And I think that's what's playing out ultimately in some of the growth in National Property. It is mostly driven by renewal premium change, although we are getting opportunistic looks at new business, but most of that growth really is coming through pricing.

是的，這是格雷格。首先，我會選擇國家財產。是的，很明顯，我們在第四季度與您分享了第四季度的一些惡劣天氣活動，我們確實預計再保險市場會走強，鑑於我們的毛線，我們將處於如此有利的位置承銷心態。我認為這就是 National Property 的某些增長最終發揮的作用。它主要是由續訂保費變化驅動的，儘管我們對新業務持機會主義態度，但大部分增長確實來自定價。

In terms of Fidelis, I mean, Alan made his comments. If you look at the webcast, you can see the domestic production up 11%. So when you look at all the businesses from Select and National Property, again, double-digit growth, and we're feeling terrific about that growth. And similar to National Property, most of that growth is coming through price increases. But again, some thoughtful new business, adding quality accounts to the portfolio has been in addition to the pricing.

就 Fidelis 而言，我的意思是，Alan 發表了他的意見。如果你看網絡直播，你可以看到國內產量增長了 11%。因此，當您查看 Select 和 National Property 的所有業務時，再次看到兩位數的增長，我們對這種增長感到非常滿意。與 National Property 類似，大部分增長來自價格上漲。但同樣，除了定價之外，一些深思熟慮的新業務，將優質客戶添加到投資組合中。

Great. And then my follow-up question, just pivoting to inflation assumptions. If we're watching CPI data, it still seems like there's inflationary pressures. And maybe, Alan, you can give us your view of how you think inflation is going to affect your loss cost assumptions for the current accident year?

偉大的。然後是我的後續問題，只是轉向通貨膨脹假設。如果我們關注 CPI 數據，似乎仍然存在通脹壓力。也許，艾倫，你可以告訴我們你認為通貨膨脹將如何影響你對當前事故年的損失成本假設的看法？

Yes, Greg, I guess I would say that we're pretty confident that in our loss picks, we're contemplating everything that is going on that could impact loss costs, and that includes inflation. And we're only trying to predict out as far as the duration of the liabilities. And so we feel pretty comfortable with the picks.

是的，格雷格，我想我會說我們非常有信心在我們的損失選擇中，我們正在考慮正在發生的一切可能影響損失成本的事情，其中包括通貨膨脹。而且我們只是試圖預測負債的持續時間。因此，我們對這些選擇感到非常滿意。

I mean we're certainly seeing inflation. You see it more prominently in Personal Insurance, where you've got shorter tail lines and more of the loss costs impacted by things like materials cost and labor, and you see it relatively less in our commercial lines because that's just a lower proportion of the loss cost. But I guess that's what I'd say, Greg.

我的意思是我們肯定會看到通貨膨脹。你在人身保險中看到它更突出，在那裡你有更短的尾線和更多的損失成本受材料成本和勞動力等因素的影響，你在我們的商業保險中看到它相對較少，因為這只是較低的比例損失成本。但我想這就是我要說的，格雷格。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。

Maybe focusing on the Business Insurance segment. Cognizant results were good. But just curious, Greg, you mentioned persistent environmental headwinds. Reserve releases were lower than expectations in that line. And sorry to be harping on the negative, but umbrella liability was called out as one of the reasons and the environmental reserve addition was, it looks like it was lower year-over-year looking at the Q. So just any comments there?

也許專注於商業保險領域。認知結果很好。但只是好奇，格雷格，你提到了持續的環境逆風。該行的儲備釋放低於預期。很抱歉對負面問題喋喋不休，但是保護傘責任被稱為原因之一，環境儲備的增加是，從 Q 來看，它看起來比去年同期要低。那麼有什麼評論嗎？

What's -- Mike, what's the question? We heard the comment...

什麼——邁克，問題是什麼？我們聽到評論...

Just -- sorry, curious about what Greg meant about the persistent environmental headwinds. Are you speaking to inflation picking up a bit or kind of staying kind of at levels that are a bit above historical trend?

只是 - 抱歉，我想知道格雷格對持續的環境逆風的意思。你是說通貨膨脹率略有上升，還是保持在略高於歷史趨勢的水平？

Mike, I'll turn it back to Greg if I miss anything here, but there's -- I think there's nothing new in that comment. It's reinsurance pricing, it's economic inflation, it's a tight labor market, it's weather frequency and severity and so on. But it's a continuation of trends we've been facing for some time.

邁克，如果我在這裡遺漏任何內容，我會把它轉回給格雷格，但我認為該評論中沒有什麼新內容。這是再保險定價，是經濟通脹，是緊張的勞動力市場，是天氣頻率和嚴重程度等等。但這是我們一段時間以來一直面臨的趨勢的延續。

Mike, the only thing I'd just add, and I think that's what's driving the renewal premium change of close to 10% and, ultimately, the combined ratio of sub-94% and an underlying of sub-90. So I feel like given those headwinds, we're operating very well in terms of relationship to them.

邁克，我要補充的唯一一件事，我認為這就是推動續約保費變化接近 10% 的原因，最終導致低於 94% 的綜合比率和低於 90% 的基礎。所以我覺得考慮到這些不利因素，我們在與他們的關係方面運作得很好。

Okay. Great. Last question just on Personal lines. Clearly, good momentum on the pricing side. Clear about your comments about rate adequacy in most states. But if we just look at the combined ratios in your comments, it looks like inflation is staying much higher for longer in both auto and home. I don't know if you'd agree with that or anything you want to call out or that maybe is getting better or onetime in nature?

好的。偉大的。最後一個關於個人專線的問題。顯然，定價方面的勢頭良好。明確您對大多數州的利率充足性的評論。但是，如果我們只看您評論中的綜合比率，就會發現汽車和家庭的通貨膨脹率在更長時間內保持在高位。我不知道你是否同意這一點或任何你想大聲疾呼的事情，或者可能正在好轉或本質上是一次性的？

Sure, Mike. It's Michael. Yes, I would say, I would agree inflation is higher for longer, continuing to put pressure on both lines. And I call that out as a driver of the continued deterioration in auto and then a little bit of an offset to some of the improvement in property. So we continue to face that persistent inflation pressure.

當然，邁克。是邁克爾。是的，我會說，我同意通貨膨脹會持續更長的時間，繼續對兩條線施加壓力。我稱這是汽車持續惡化的驅動因素，然後對財產的一些改善產生了一點抵消。因此，我們繼續面臨持續的通脹壓力。

The other thing just to be really clear on the comment about rate adequacy, right, that's a comment about written adequacy for business we're putting on the books, which is really a prospective view. And certainly, the GAAP financials will lag that because we need that rate to earn through before it shows up in the GAAP financials, which is why I've been consistently commenting that it will take time for those rate changes to earn through.

另一件事就是要真正清楚地說明關於利率充足性的評論，對，這是關於我們正在寫的業務的書面充分性的評論，這確實是一個前瞻性的觀點。當然，GAAP 財務數據將滯後於此，因為我們需要該利率在它出現在 GAAP 財務數據之前實現盈利，這就是為什麼我一直評論說這些利率變化需要時間才能實現。

But we do see continued momentum in pricing in both auto and home, and I'll give you a quick example. We were actually really pleased last Friday to get approval from the State of California for 19 points of rate in auto effective May 31, which is one of the elements of that prospective view and 1 piece of the puzzle in terms of why we see renewal premium change going higher from here.

但我們確實看到汽車和家庭定價的持續勢頭，我將舉一個簡單的例子。實際上，我們真的很高興上週五獲得加利福尼亞州的批准，從 5 月 31 日起在汽車行業提高 19 點的稅率，這是前瞻性觀點的要素之一，也是我們為什麼看到續訂溢價的一個難題改變從這裡走高。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

A couple of quick ones here for you. First, I'm just curious, Michael, in the -- did you have any effect in your auto results from the additional claims that were filed in Florida as a result of the legislation? Anything on reserve? I know you're relatively small there, but any impact at all?

這裡有幾個快速的。首先，我只是好奇，邁克爾，在 - 你是否對你的汽車結果有任何影響，因為立法導致在佛羅里達州提出的額外索賠？有什麼要儲備的嗎？我知道你在那里相對較小，但有任何影響嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Brian. No, we did not have an impact from the Florida law through filings in our results, and that's largely due to the fact the comment that you just made, our auto market share in Florida is about 2%. So it's a relatively small exposure for us.

是的。謝謝，布萊恩。不，我們沒有通過提交的結果受到佛羅里達州法律的影響，這主要是由於您剛才發表的評論，我們在佛羅里達州的汽車市場份額約為 2%。所以這對我們來說是一個相對較小的風險。

Great. That's helpful. And then secondly, on the commercial lines, I'm just curious in Business Insurance, Fidelis coming in, I'm assuming it was relatively small from an earned premium perspective. But as we think about that continuing to earn in your business insurance results, is that going to have a favorable impact on your underlying loss ratios here? Does it have a more property component, maybe better underlying loss ratios?

偉大的。這很有幫助。其次，在商業領域，我只是對商業保險感到好奇，Fidelis 進來了，我假設從賺取保費的角度來看它相對較小。但是當我們考慮繼續在您的商業保險結果中賺錢時，這是否會對您的潛在損失率產生有利影響？它是否有更多的財產成分，也許更好的潛在損失率？

Brian, it's Dan. I'll take that. So look, I think the short answer, as we said at the end of the fourth quarter, is it's just not going to be big enough to move the needle a lot. If it plays out the way that we hope it would play out, it would be -- it would have a very modest favorable impact to underlying combined ratio in Business Insurance.

布賴恩，是丹。我會接受的。所以看，我認為簡短的回答，正如我們在第四季度末所說的那樣，只是規模不夠大，無法大幅移動針頭。如果它以我們希望的方式發揮作用，那將是——它將對商業保險的基礎綜合比率產生非常適度的有利影響。

The first quarter, it's tiny because the earned premium component of a partial earning is just not that big. And then the only other thing I'll throw out there, as a reminder, since you mentioned the property book or any of the business that they write, we do have a loss ratio cap on that quota share. So it can't really hurt us badly on the other side.

第一季度，它很小，因為部分收入的已賺溢價部分並沒有那麼大。然後我要拋出的唯一一件事，作為提醒，因為你提到了財產簿或他們寫的任何業務，我們確實對該配額份額設置了損失率上限。所以它不會真的在另一邊嚴重傷害我們。

Your next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

So first, I just had a question on Business Insurance. If you look at price increases, they've been fairly steady over the past several quarters, but inflation stayed pretty high as well. So as you think about your margins in the business over the next 1 to 2 years, do you think they'll improve further? Or should we assume that more of the earnings growth will come from just the momentum in premiums?

首先，我有一個關於商業保險的問題。如果你看一下價格上漲，它們在過去幾個季度一直相當穩定，但通貨膨脹率也居高不下。因此，當您考慮未來 1 到 2 年的業務利潤率時，您認為它們會進一步提高嗎？或者我們是否應該假設更多的收益增長將僅來自保費的增長勢頭？

Jimmy, it's Alan. I think we'd like to get away from forecasting margins. What I will say is we have answered that question from time to time over the last year or so. And frankly, these written measures aren't that different than they've been over the last year or so. But we would like to get away from forecast. What I will say is we are very, very pleased with the business we're putting on the books.

吉米，是艾倫。我認為我們希望擺脫預測利潤率。我要說的是，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們不時地回答了這個問題。坦率地說，這些書面措施與過去一年左右的時間沒有什麼不同。但我們想擺脫預測。我要說的是，我們對賬面上的業務非常非常滿意。

Okay. And then any color on sort of the timing of completing the buyback authorization? Is it the next 2 to 3 years? Or is it more open-ended? And like any sort of color on that?

好的。然後關於完成回購授權的時間有什麼顏色嗎？是未來 2 到 3 年嗎？還是更開放？喜歡上面的任何顏色嗎？

Jimmy, it's Dan. So very open-ended. We are rightsizing capital over time. It will depend on our view of capital strength. It will depend on what happens from a loss perspective. It will depend on our view of growth and how much capital we need to hold on to growth.

吉米，是丹。非常開放。隨著時間的推移，我們正在調整資本規模。這將取決於我們對資本實力的看法。這將取決於從損失的角度來看會發生什麼。這將取決於我們對增長的看法以及我們需要多少資本來保持增長。

I think what the increased authorization gives us is, one, recognition from the Board of the strong financial performance of the company; and two, it gives us a fair amount of flexibility to manage through whatever environment we see. But there's no targeted time horizon by which we're going to try and execute that remaining buyback authorization.

我認為增加授權給我們的是，一是董事會對公司強勁財務業績的認可；第二，它為我們提供了相當大的靈活性來管理我們看到的任何環境。但是我們沒有目標時間範圍來嘗試執行剩餘的回購授權。

And also no change in our capital management philosophy.

我們的資本管理理念也沒有改變。

Understood. And just lastly, if I could just follow up on the point on margins. If we think about the loss inflation in your Business Insurance division, should that be somewhat similar to what general CPI inflation is? Or what are the puts and takes? Because at one point, I guess, social inflation was a big deal, but it seems like it hasn't come back the same way as it was prior to COVID?

明白了。最後，如果我能跟進關於利潤率的問題。如果我們考慮您的商業保險部門的損失通貨膨脹，它是否應該與一般 CPI 通貨膨脹有些相似？或者什麼是 puts 和 takes？因為在某一時刻，我猜，社會通貨膨脹是一個大問題，但它似乎並沒有像 COVID 之前那樣以同樣的方式回歸？

Jimmy, if you're talking about loss trend, there's -- we didn't make any changes to our trend assumptions in the quarter.

吉米，如果你說的是虧損趨勢，那麼——我們在本季度沒有對我們的趨勢假設做出任何改變。

Jimmy, it's Dan. On social inflation, just to clarify, and I think we've said it probably every quarter for the last 10 quarters, social inflation was elevated. We called it early in late 2018. We saw it in 2019. We saw it in 2020. Even during COVID when the court slow down, we don't think social inflation has gone anywhere. So if you're thinking that social inflation is less of an issue now than it was, we don't think that, and we continue to book our loss reserves on that basis.

吉米，是丹。關於社會通貨膨脹，我想澄清一下，我想我們在過去 10 個季度中可能每個季度都說過，社會通貨膨脹率很高。我們在 2018 年底早些時候稱之為。我們在 2019 年看到了它。我們在 2020 年看到了它。即使在法院放慢速度的 COVID 期間，我們認為社會通脹也沒有消失。因此，如果您認為社會通貨膨脹現在不像以前那樣是個問題，我們不這麼認為，我們將繼續在此基礎上計入損失準備金。

But all of that reflected in the really exceptional margins we posted in the quarter.

但所有這些都反映在我們在本季度公佈的非常出色的利潤率上。

Yes. And I see that you're booking at that level, but are you actually seeing that as well? Because it seems from the outside in that it's not as -- doesn't seem as elevated as it has been?

是的。我看到你在那個級別預訂，但你真的也看到了嗎？因為它從外面看起來不像——不像以前那樣高尚？

I think we're not going to comment beyond the combined ratio we printed in our comment on loss trend.

我認為我們不會發表超出我們在損失趨勢評論中發表的綜合比率的評論。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First one I had was on Business Insurance. When I listened to the comments about the year-over-year change in underlying loss ratios and so forth, one of the things I didn't hear was sort of the mix shift, maybe a bit towards property or impact from the reinsurance, changes that you made, a little higher retention, et cetera. I mean is that because that was not really too material to that? Or can you provide any color on how that may have impacted year-over-year comparisons of loss ratios?

我的第一個是商業保險。當我聽到有關基礎損失率等的同比變化的評論時，我沒有聽到的一件事是混合轉變，可能有點轉向財產或再保險的影響，變化你做的，更高的保留率，等等。我的意思是那是因為那不是真的太重要了嗎？或者您能否提供任何顏色說明這可能如何影響損失率的同比比較？

Yes, Alex, it's Dan. So I think you're coming to the right conclusion. Not a big impact or we would have called it out. Because as a reminder, we did say even back in the fourth quarter when we went through what the 1/1 reinsurance renewals looked like and what our attachment points were and what the cost was and what treaties we renewed and what treaties we didn't renew, that we didn't expect that to have a big impact on margins going forward and that prove to be the case.

是的，亞歷克斯，是丹。所以我認為你得出了正確的結論。影響不大，否則我們會大聲疾呼。因為提醒一下，我們甚至在第四季度就說過了，當時我們經歷了 1/1 再保險續保的樣子，我們的附加點是什麼，成本是多少，我們續簽了哪些條約，我們沒有續簽哪些條約更新，我們沒想到這會對未來的利潤率產生重大影響，事實證明確實如此。

Mix does move over time. We give you the written premium numbers by line of business so you can see that, but not a driving factor in the year-over-year margin comparison.

Mix 確實會隨著時間的推移而變化。我們按業務線為您提供書面保費數字，以便您可以看到，但這不是同比利潤率比較的驅動因素。

Got it. And then maybe just in terms of the pricing, could you kind of unpack for us at all -- when we think about that modest reacceleration of renewal rate change, can you help us think about what you're seeing among some of the different product lines?

知道了。然後也許只是在定價方面，你能不能為我們解壓一下——當我們考慮續訂率變化的適度重新加速時，你能幫我們想想你在一些不同的產品中看到了什麼嗎？線？

Let me just try to respond to that with some general comments about the pricing environment, and you can follow up if we don't get to the question. I would say the pricing environment remains very strong. We saw, as you saw in the numbers, a little acceleration in renewal rate that was led by property, umbrella and auto. And we'll just have to see whether that's the start of the trend in that direction or it's not.

讓我試著用一些關於定價環境的一般性評論來回應這個問題，如果我們沒有談到這個問題，你可以跟進。我會說定價環境仍然非常強勁。我們看到，正如您在數字中看到的那樣，由財產、雨傘和汽車引領的續約率略有加快。我們只需要看看這是否是該方向趨勢的開始。

And very significantly, when you were thinking about prices, as we've said many times, even with another quarter of very strong pricing, retentions remain at historical highs, which for us is terrific given the attractive return. So in broad strokes, and I think Greg included this in his commentary, there are 2 trends impacting pricing. On the one hand, there are headwinds, and we've been seeing those for a while now, and they're still there, and that's what you see us reacting to.

非常重要的是，當你考慮價格時，正如我們多次說過的那樣，即使有另一個季度非常強勁的定價，保留率仍保持在歷史高位，考慮到有吸引力的回報，這對我們來說是非常棒的。因此，從廣義上講，我認為格雷格在他的評論中包括了這一點，有兩種趨勢會影響定價。一方面，有逆風，我們已經看到這些逆風有一段時間了，它們仍然存在，這就是你看到我們的反應。

And on the other hand, after years of some pretty good pricing and improvements in terms and the conditions, return turned a better place. And so the pricing that you see us putting up is -- and what we're achieving is really threading that needle incredibly well. I mean hats off to our field organization for just really superior execution.

另一方面，經過多年相當不錯的定價以及條款和條件的改進，return 變成了一個更好的地方。因此，您看到我們提出的定價是——我們正在實現的目標確實非常好地穿針引線。我的意思是向我們的現場組織致敬，因為他們執行得非常出色。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

Could you -- I don't know what details I'm looking for (inaudible) smart ones. Where are the courts shaping up right now? How is the backlog of cases coming through? How efficiently are they handling current cases compared to where we were 1, 2, 3 years ago? Where are we in that story?

你能不能——我不知道我在尋找什麼細節（聽不清）聰明的。法院現在在哪裡？積壓的案件如何處理？與 1、2、3 年前相比，他們處理當前案件的效率如何？我們在那個故事中的什麼位置？

Josh, it's Dan. So I'll take a shot at that. Look, I think we were saying 2 years ago, that even when courts did reopen, that we expected that it was going to take quite a while for the backlog to work its way through. We thought that was going to be measured in years, not in quarters. I think the data that we look at every quarter would so far confirm that to be true.

喬希，是丹。所以我會嘗試一下。聽著，我想我們在 2 年前就說過，即使法院確實重新開放，我們也預計積壓的案件需要很長時間才能處理完畢。我們認為這將以年而不是季度來衡量。我認為，到目前為止，我們每個季度查看的數據都可以證實這一點。

So in some of the most recent, say, 3- and 6-month diagonals, the amount of claims that are closing in a 3- or 6-month period is a little higher than the historical pattern would tell you it would be. But when you put that on a life-to-date basis for those accident years, closure rates are still lagging where they were pre-pandemic. And so that's what we're seeing. You're starting to see some of that backlog work its way through. But again, we think we've got a long way to go there.

因此，在最近的一些情況下，比如 3 個月和 6 個月的對角線，在 3 個月或 6 個月期間結束的索賠數量略高於歷史模式告訴你的數量。但是，當你將其置於那些事故年份的生命週期基礎上時，關閉率仍然落後於大流行前的水平。這就是我們所看到的。您開始看到一些積壓工作正在解決。但同樣，我們認為我們還有很長的路要走。

And does the backlog mean that if I have a new incident in 2023 that it's going to be an extended period of time before it can see a courtroom?

積壓案件是否意味著如果我在 2023 年發生新事件，需要很長時間才能上法庭？

It depends, Josh. It depends jurisdiction by jurisdiction. It depends by type of claim. It depends by complexity of claim. So I wouldn't say that as a universal rule. But I would say, generally speaking, we're still modeling slower closure rates than pre-pandemic.

這取決於，喬什。這取決於管轄權。這取決於索賠類型。這取決於索賠的複雜性。所以我不會說這是普遍規則。但我想說，一般來說，我們仍在模擬比大流行前更慢的關閉率。

Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui。

I also like to wish Doug Russell best of luck. I really enjoyed the interactions in my prior role over many years. Since the boy scouts appeal by insurers did not go through, wondering were you holding out on that appeal passing? Or do you feel good about the IBNR reserves you set aside? It would also be helpful if you could quantify how much IBNR you set aside for reviver cases in general?

我也希望 Doug Russell 好運。多年來，我真的很享受在我以前的角色中的互動。由於保險公司的童子軍上訴沒有通過，想知道您是否堅持上訴通過？或者你對你預留的 IBNR 準備金是否滿意？如果您可以量化一般情況下為 reviver 案例預留了多少 IBNR，這也會有所幫助？

Yes, Tracy. So it's Dan. So I'm not going to do the latter. You know from the way we've talked about reviver statutes, and those types of exposures going all the way back to the first quarter of 2019 when New York implemented what for us was a pretty significant reviver statute, we're looking at what happens state-by-state quarter-by-quarter and reacting in real time as best we can.

是的，特蕾西。所以是丹。所以我不會做後者。你知道，從我們談論復活法的方式來看，這些類型的風險一直追溯到 2019 年第一季度，當時紐約實施了對我們來說非常重要的複活法，我們正在研究會發生什麼一個季度一個季度地逐個州，並儘我們所能實時做出反應。

PSA is something that we and the whole industry has been watching for a long time. You generally don't see our name in the news in connection with that because we don't have anywhere near the exposures that some of the other folks have. We weren't necessarily going to be significantly swayed by bankruptcy proceeding or not proceeding one way or the other. We have all the information at our fingertips in terms of what's the latest and greatest, and that's what's baked into our reserves.

PSA 是我們和整個行業已經關注了很長時間的事情。您通常不會在與此相關的新聞中看到我們的名字，因為我們沒有任何其他人所擁有的曝光率。我們不一定會因破產程序或不以一種或另一種方式進行而受到重大影響。關於最新和最棒的信息，我們的所有信息都觸手可及，而這正是我們儲備的內容。

In that regard, one thing I'll mention, in case you were going to go there. In the month of April, the state of Maryland implemented a new reviver statute. It's not effective until October of '23, but because the law changed in the second quarter of '23, we'll do our assessment in the second quarter '23. Too early to say with any certainty what that impact might be, but not expecting that to be a big deal for us at this point.

在這方面，我會提到一件事，以防你要去那裡。 4 月份，馬里蘭州實施了一項新的複活法。它直到 23 年 10 月才生效，但由於法律在 23 年第二季度發生了變化，我們將在 23 年第二季度進行評估。現在斷言這種影響可能是什麼還為時過早，但目前預計這對我們來說並不重要。

That's very helpful. Maybe just a follow-up question that Josh raised. I noticed in your 10-K, you've reported a lower number of cumulative number of reported claims. And I'm wondering when you set aside reserves if you think about a more normalized number of claims coming through considering the backlog in the court system?

這很有幫助。也許只是 Josh 提出的後續問題。我注意到在您的 10-K 中，您報告的索賠累計數量較少。我想知道，如果考慮到法院系統中的積壓案件，您會考慮更正常化的索賠數量嗎？

Tracy, I think for the last few years, we've said, given the backlog in the court system and the delay in closure rates, there was more uncertainty in the loss environment, and we were trying to make sure that we allowed for that uncertainty when establishing our loss picks.

特雷西，我認為在過去的幾年裡，我們已經說過，鑑於法院系統的積壓和結案率的延遲，損失環境中存在更多不確定性，我們正在努力確保我們允許這一點建立我們的損失選擇時的不確定性。

So something north of the reported claim, correct?

那麼在報告的聲明之外的東西，對嗎？

No. We're not going to do frequency time severity. I'm just telling you that we recognize that there's a level of uncertainty in the environment, and we're trying to factor that into our loss picks.

不，我們不會做頻率時間嚴重性。我只是告訴你，我們認識到環境中存在一定程度的不確定性，我們正試圖將其納入我們的損失選擇中。

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。

I had a question on the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio. Could you talk about some of the drivers of the improvement year-over-year and the sustainability of it going forward? And I'm specifically looking just for how much lower the non-cap property losses were this year versus the elevated level last year? And were they at a lower level than you would normally expect in a typical first quarter?

我對商業保險的潛在損失率有疑問。您能否談談逐年改進的一些驅動因素及其未來的可持續性？我特別關註今年的非上限財產損失與去年的高水平相比低了多少？在典型的第一季度，它們的水平是否低於您通常預期的水平？

David, Dan again. So look -- so the underlying combined improved by a couple of points, almost 0.5 point of that you could see was expense ratio. So you got about 1.5 points in the loss ratio. And Greg's comments were slightly elevated level of property losses in last year's number and the continued benefit of earned pricing. Neither of those are huge.

大衛，又是丹。所以看 - 所以基礎組合提高了幾個點，你可以看到幾乎 0.5 個點是費用率。所以你的損失率大約是 1.5 分。格雷格的評論是去年的財產損失水平略有上升，以及盈利定價的持續好處。這些都不是很大。

To the probably more salient point of your question at the end, we look at this quarter and see it as a pretty clean quarter in terms of a jump-off point, not really anything that was significant one way or the other that we think you'd adjust out for.

對於你問題最後可能更突出的一點，我們看這個季度，認為它是一個非常乾淨的季度，就一個起點而言，並不是我們認為你認為的任何重要的方式或其他方式'調整出來。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then just a question for Alan, just on the pricing environment and specifically for the property business. So last quarter, I think you had said you saw property rate accelerate month by month in the quarter. Just wondering how that trended in the first quarter here. And just given property is a seasonally small part of the business in the first quarter, would you expect continued acceleration in renewal rate change in Business Insurance?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後只是艾倫的一個問題，只是關於定價環境，特別是針對房地產業務。所以上個季度，我想你說過你看到本季度的房地產利率逐月加速。只是想知道第一季度的趨勢如何。鑑於財產在第一季度的業務中只佔季節性的一小部分，您是否預計商業保險的續訂率變化會繼續加速？

I mean the first quarter property pricing was -- we saw a continuation of that trend through the first quarter. I think we're going to try not to forecast and line pricing is not much more competitively sensitive than our pricing strategy. But given the hardening of the reinsurance market, there's a fair amount of activity in the pricing space. There's, overall, probably a constraint in capacity, and I think underwriters are generally just reacting to the loss environment.

我的意思是第一季度的房地產價格是——我們看到這一趨勢在第一季度延續。我認為我們將盡量不預測，線路定價並不比我們的定價策略更具競爭敏感性。但鑑於再保險市場的硬化，定價空間中存在相當多的活動。總的來說，能力可能受到限制，我認為承銷商通常只是對損失環境做出反應。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

你的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

Congratulations on the quarter. I've got a couple of Personal lines related questions. In the context of there are some rumors that Progressive is getting back to digital marketing a lot. The implications, they saw something in March that made them nervous about the business has been confirmed. But is there anything in the data that you saw sort of inter-quarter, as we went through the quarter, particularly in auto that would suggest some sort of market change either in the loss ratio or maybe even the sort of marketing piece of the business? Obviously, the average looks what you'd expect. But just wondering if there's anything in that Intercore level that we should be -- that would stand out at all?

祝賀這個季度。我有幾個與個人專線相關的問題。有傳言稱 Progressive 正在大量回歸數字營銷。這意味著，他們在 3 月份看到的一些讓他們對業務感到緊張的事情已經得到證實。但是，當我們經歷這個季度時，您看到的數據中是否有任何季度間的數據，特別是在汽車行業，這表明損失率或什至是業務的營銷部分發生了某種市場變化？顯然，平均值符合您的預期。但是只是想知道我們應該在那個 Intercore 級別中有什麼 - 那會脫穎而出嗎？

Yes, Paul, it's Michael. I would say probably nothing that would stand out. I will tell you that the first quarter in auto is one of the tougher quarters to try to diagnose trends in because of changes in weather, when the weather improves, when you get winter storms or not, the sort of frequency and severity results in auto in Q1, sort of inter-quarter, as you described, are sort of the toughest to discern trends from really of any quarter in the year.

是的，保羅，是邁克爾。我可能不會說什麼會脫穎而出。我會告訴你，由於天氣的變化，汽車行業的第一季度是嘗試診斷趨勢的較困難的季度之一，當天氣好轉時，當你是否遇到冬季風暴時，這種頻率和嚴重程度會導致汽車在第一季度，正如您所描述的，季度間是最難從一年中的任何一個季度真正辨別趨勢的。

And then as you look at the external indices, you see wholesale used car prices moving around. One consistent trend we see underneath everything is parts and labor costs continuing to rise. That's been fairly steady for a long time. And then again, a lot of the items that I mentioned, just impact driving behavior very differently from 1 year to the next. So I wouldn't say I see anything on the loss side that's worth pointing out from within the quarter.

然後，當您查看外部指數時，您會看到二手車批發價格四處波動。我們在所有事物背後看到的一個一致趨勢是零件和勞動力成本持續上升。很長一段時間以來，這一直相當穩定。再一次，我提到的很多項目對駕駛行為的影響從一年到下一年都非常不同。所以我不會說我在本季度內看到任何值得指出的損失方面。

And then if you think about more of the business dynamics, to your point about digital advertising, et cetera, we continue to see healthy demand for quotes in the marketplace. And I think there's a variety of drivers of that, probably the biggest of which is the rate that's going through the marketplace and through the industry driving people to shop.

然後，如果你考慮更多的商業動態，比如你關於數字廣告的觀點，等等，我們將繼續看到市場對報價的健康需求。我認為這有多種驅動因素，其中最大的可能是市場和行業推動人們購物的速度。

So I don't know if that was one of the elements you were trying to get at. But certainly, we see pretty healthy quote activity, again, through the quarter, not a lot of inter-quarter variability.

所以我不知道這是否是您想要了解的要素之一。但可以肯定的是，我們再次看到整個季度的報價活動相當健康，季度間變化不大。

That definitely helps me understand it better. And then relatedly, I was just listening to your comments about Personal line pricing. And maybe just a clarification, and I apologize if it's just me being confused. But it sounds like you're going to hit the expectations for guidance of rate adequacy on time. But was there an implication that essentially Travelers will have to kind of jack up the rates a little bit faster or a little bit higher than you previously expected because the underlying trends are a little bit worse? Or am I just not interpreting that correctly?

這絕對有助於我更好地理解它。然後相關地，我只是在聽你對個人專線定價的評論。也許只是一個澄清，如果只是我感到困惑，我深表歉意。但聽起來你會按時達到利率充足率指導的預期。但這是否意味著基本上旅行者將不得不比你之前預期的更快或更高一點地抬高利率，因為潛在趨勢有點糟糕？還是我只是沒有正確解釋？

No, I think you're spot on, Paul. We have seen the loss experience be incrementally worse, frankly than it was and than we expected. And so we have adjusted our rate plan for 2023 accordingly and are seeking more rate than we thought we would as we put the plan together for the year.

不，我認為你是對的，保羅。坦率地說，我們已經看到損失體驗越來越糟，比我們預期的要嚴重。因此，我們相應地調整了 2023 年的費率計劃，並在製定今年的計劃時尋求比我們想像的更高的費率。

And so that's -- but that is underneath the comment that I made about RPC going north from here for the balance of the year. So that expectation of where RPC is headed reflects both our original plans around rate and the additions that we're now seeking because the loss experience has been a little bit worse.

這就是 - 但這是我對 RPC 在今年餘下時間從這裡向北發展所做的評論的基礎。因此，對 RPC 發展方向的預期既反映了我們最初關於速率的計劃，也反映了我們現在正在尋求的補充，因為損失經驗有點糟糕。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ward from Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗的 Michael Ward。

Just thinking about the small business insurance clients. Seems like pretty healthy growth. I was hoping you could comment on what you're seeing there in terms of kind of macro trends?

只考慮小型企業保險客戶。看起來是相當健康的成長。我希望你能從宏觀趨勢的角度評論你在那裡看到的東西？

Yes. Michael, this is Greg. First, I'd point to the top line in Select plus 11%. And you can see on the webcast, a lot of that is being driven by a strong pricing environment with a 10% RPC. But you can also see below that, that we've got real strong new business. New business is up 16% over the prior year, and we've shared with you the success of our BOP 2.0 product. So that's driving a lot of the new business.

是的。邁克爾，這是格雷格。首先，我會指向 Select plus 11% 中的頂行。您可以在網絡廣播中看到，其中很多是由具有 10% RPC 的強大定價環境推動的。但你也可以在下面看到，我們有真正強大的新業務。新業務比上一年增長 16%，我們已經與您分享了我們 BOP 2.0 產品的成功。因此，這推動了很多新業務的發展。

So the combination of new business and pricing is really driving that strong top line growth. And we're feeling terrific about the profit profile of that business and continue to invest in it.

因此，新業務和定價的結合真正推動了強勁的收入增長。我們對該業務的利潤狀況感到非常滿意，並繼續對其進行投資。

Super helpful. And then maybe on management liability, was hoping you could unpack some of the losses or expected losses in Bond & Specialty. And then for management liability, any -- not necessarily asking for an outlook, but any commentary on pricing trends?

超級有幫助。然後可能是關於管理責任，希望你能解開債券和專業的一些損失或預期損失。然後對於管理責任，任何 - 不一定要求前景，但對定價趨勢的任何評論？

Yes, Michael, this is Jeff Klenk. So relative to the financial institutions, we've got some exposures on some of the financial institutions that were prominent in the news in the first quarter. We booked some losses for those over and above what we have in our loss picks, and I mentioned in the prepared remarks, that's really the primary driver of the 3.9 points increase in the underlying combined ratio.

是的，邁克爾，這是傑夫克倫克。因此，相對於金融機構，我們對第一季度新聞中突出的一些金融機構進行了一些曝光。我們為那些超出我們損失選擇的損失做了一些損失，我在準備好的評論中提到，這實際上是基礎綜合比率增加 3.9 點的主要驅動因素。

And then what was the second question?

那麼第二個問題是什麼？

Management liability pricing commentary?

管理責任定價評論？

I think we wouldn't really give a projection on pricing going forward. I would say that given the healthy returns that we have in our portfolio, feel really very good about the 5 points of RPC that we got, the 90 points of RPC and you know that we're growing our new business. Thanks for the question.

我認為我們不會真正對未來的定價做出預測。我想說的是，鑑於我們在投資組合中獲得的健康回報，對我們獲得的 RPC 的 5 分、RPC 的 90 分感覺非常好，你知道我們正在發展我們的新業務。謝謝你的問題。

90 points of retention.

90 點保留。

Sorry about that. 90 points of retention and then growing the new business by 25%. Thanks, Dan.

對於那個很抱歉。 90 個保留點，然後將新業務增長 25%。謝謝，丹。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

Obviously, the pricing look better in middle markets, National Property. It did look like it softened a bit in small commercial. I'm not sure if things are getting more competitive there or it's just a function of mix, but looking for some color on that?

顯然，中間市場 National Property 的定價看起來更好。它看起來確實在小型商業廣告中有所軟化。我不確定那裡的競爭是否變得更加激烈，或者這只是混合的一個功能，但正在尋找一些顏色嗎？

Ryan, this is Greg. For this particular quarter, we do have a stronger weight in the Select business, particularly of workers' comp. And so given the continued negative rate environment that we're seeing broadly across the workers' comp industry, the Select business felt that in the first quarter. But again, I'll point out the strong RPC overall at 10% exposure was really robust. And as we've shared with you before, there's a meaningful portion of that, that does behave like rate.

瑞安，這是格雷格。對於這個特定的季度，我們在精選業務中的權重確實更大，尤其是在工人薪酬方面。因此，鑑於我們在整個工人薪酬行業廣泛看到的持續負利率環境，精選業務在第一季度就感受到了這一點。但我要再次指出，在 10% 的曝光率下，RPC 的整體表現非常強勁。正如我們之前與您分享的那樣，其中有一個有意義的部分，它的行為確實像利率。

Got it. And then, I guess, for Michael, I mean we've seen modest sequential PIF declines in the past couple of quarters in home and auto, but nothing significant. How should we think about -- when you think about the rate that you've put through or you're planning to put through, are you feeling like we've probably seen kind of, I don't know, retention bottom or, I guess, anything on that?

知道了。然後，我想，對於邁克爾來說，我的意思是我們在過去幾個季度看到家庭和汽車的 PIF 出現適度的連續下降，但並不顯著。我們應該如何考慮——當你考慮你已經完成或計劃完成的速度時，你是否覺得我們可能已經看到了某種，我不知道，保留底部或者，我想，有什麼要說的嗎？

Like are your clients kind of feeling the full impact of the type of rate that you put through yet?

就像您的客戶是否感受到您所接受的費率類型的全部影響？

Sure. Thanks, Ryan. I would say that as we continue to push rate and renewal premium change through the portfolio, we would anticipate some continued pressure. Again, not our primary focus. We're not wringing our hands over PIF growth at the moment. Our primary focus really is on improving profitability and the actions we need to take there. But we wouldn't be surprised if we see a bit of continued pressure on PIF as we continue to work to improve margins.

當然。謝謝，瑞安。我想說的是，隨著我們繼續通過投資組合推動利率和續約保費的變化，我們預計會有一些持續的壓力。同樣，這不是我們的主要關注點。目前，我們並沒有為 PIF 的增長而絞盡腦汁。我們的主要重點實際上是提高盈利能力以及我們需要採取的行動。但是，如果我們在繼續努力提高利潤率的同時看到 PIF 繼續承受一些壓力，我們也不會感到驚訝。

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields 系列。

Two quick questions for Jeff. One, can you give us a little color on the expense ratio increase on year-over-year basis?

傑夫的兩個快速問題。第一，你能給我們一些關於費用率同比增長的顏色嗎？

Sure. So Meyer, I think we're making strategic investments to maintain and extend our competitive advantages. And so -- and to make sure that we're investing in our future success. The 2 biggest buckets on that would be people and technology. And I'd point out why we continue to deliver attractive returns. A little more color on what that investment is would really be to develop and extend our flow underwriting capabilities in what I'd say are these traditionally higher touch management liability and surety lines of business. And again, that's all in the context of a reported combined ratio of 80%.

當然。所以邁耶，我認為我們正在進行戰略投資，以維持和擴大我們的競爭優勢。所以 - 並確保我們投資於我們未來的成功。最大的兩個桶是人和技術。我會指出為什麼我們繼續提供有吸引力的回報。關於這項投資的更多顏色實際上是為了發展和擴展我們的流量承保能力，我想說的是這些傳統上較高的接觸管理責任和擔保業務線。同樣，這一切都是在報告的綜合比率為 80% 的情況下進行的。

Okay. That's very helpful. Second question, I guess, there -- I'm sorry, Greg called out some reserve issues related to the BI segment's general liability. It doesn't look like that problem manifest itself in Bond & Specialty in the quarter. Can you talk about, I guess, what's going on there and why the same issues wouldn't present?

好的。這很有幫助。第二個問題，我想，很抱歉，Greg 提出了一些與 BI 部門的一般責任相關的儲備金問題。本季度的 Bond & Specialty 似乎沒有出現這個問題。你能談談，我想，那裡發生了什麼，為什麼沒有出現同樣的問題？

Yes. Meyer, it's Dan. I'll take the PYD question. I think just a different dynamic. Umbrella and we talked about it a little bit last quarter. You're writing excess coverages in an environment of inflation, whether it's both the combination of sort of CPI, headline type inflation plus the fact that social inflation never went anywhere. What you've seen is some more items pierce into those higher layers.

是的。邁耶，是丹。我將回答 PYD 問題。我認為只是一種不同的動態。 Umbrella 和我們在上個季度討論了一點。你是在通貨膨脹的環境下編寫超額保險，無論是 CPI 的組合、標題類型的通貨膨脹，還是社會通貨膨脹從未發生過的事實。你所看到的是更多的物品刺入了更高的層。

So not directionally inconsistent with the way we would have thought about it, but the magnitude of it was different, and we're just trying to react to that as we see the data come in. Just a different dynamic in terms of the management liability exposures that exist in the BSI book. And it just hasn't had the same crossover.

所以在方向上與我們想像的方式不一致，但它的大小不同，我們只是在看到數據進來時試圖對此做出反應。只是管理責任方面的不同動態BSI 書中存在的曝光。它只是沒有相同的交叉。

Okay. So that's a function of the book as opposed to the actual loss trend if I understand it correctly?

好的。那麼如果我理解正確的話，這是賬面的功能而不是實際的損失趨勢？

I would say that's true, yes.

我會說這是真的，是的。

Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, did you drop your workers' comp loss picks in the quarter?

我的第一個問題，你是否在本季度放棄了工人的補償損失選擇？

Well, we took favorable PYD at least -- be a little more specific on what your question is?

好吧，我們至少對 PYD 持有利態度——請更具體地說明您的問題是什麼？

Sorry, I'm trying to get a sense of just how you booked the underlying year if you took down the picks and comp relative to where you were booking accident year 2022 and prior, on the current accident year?

抱歉，我想了解一下，如果您相對於當前事故年預訂 2022 年及之前的事故年的位置取消了選擇和補償，您是如何預訂基礎年份的？

Yes. I don't think so, Elyse. So we -- you saw what we did in '22. '23, we do our normal process of projecting what we think loss trend is off of '22. Loss trend is still positive in workers' comp because we are making an assumption that severity is going to return to some more normalized level and not be as benign as it has been. And it's -- so '23 -- and '23 is early in the year, we wouldn't have done anything to modify our pick at this point.

是的。我不這麼認為，愛麗絲。所以我們 - 你看到了我們在 22 年所做的事情。 '23，我們按照正常流程預測我們認為損失趨勢與'22 相比的情況。工人補償的損失趨勢仍然是積極的，因為我們假設嚴重程度將恢復到更正常的水平，而不是像以前那樣良性。它是——所以 23 年——而 23 年是年初，我們此時不會做任何修改我們的選擇的事情。

And then in terms of personal auto, obviously, recognizing right, it's been a pretty hard environment in terms of loss trend for everyone. I had thought if in previous years, right, Q1 has at times been seasonally the best quarter when just looking at underlying combined ratios. You guys obviously have rate going to the system but that needs to earn in and trends remained high.

然後就個人汽車而言，顯然，正確認識，就每個人的損失趨勢而言，這是一個非常艱難的環境。我曾想，如果在前幾年，如果只看基礎綜合比率，第一季度有時是季節性最好的季度。你們顯然有進入系統的比率，但需要賺取並且趨勢仍然很高。

Would you expect that same seasonality to persist that the other quarters of the year would be weaker on an underlying basis relative to the Q1? Or how should we think about the dynamics within personal, auto?

您是否預計相同的季節性會持續存在，即一年中其他季度相對於第一季度的基礎基礎會更弱？或者我們應該如何考慮個人、汽車內部的動態？

Yes, Elyse, it's Michael. I would say that we don't see anything that would cause us to change our view of seasonality in auto. And to your point, the biggest reason the combined ratio came down relative to fourth quarter of last year really is that seasonality. So notwithstanding the year-over-year same period, the same period deterioration, those seasonality trends still seem to be intact based on looking at this year's first quarter relative to last year's fourth quarter.

是的，愛麗絲，是邁克爾。我要說的是，我們看不到任何會導致我們改變對汽車季節性觀點的看法。就你的觀點而言，綜合比率相對於去年第四季度下降的最大原因確實是季節性。因此，儘管與去年同期相比，同期有所惡化，但從今年第一季度相對於去年第四季度的情況來看，這些季節性趨勢似乎仍然完好無損。

And we have time for 1 more question. Your final question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Jefferies.

我們還有時間再回答 1 個問題。你的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

Two questions, if I may. One, on the Florida reform. I realize your market share in Florida is underweight or in small overall. But would you expect there to be an impact beyond personal, auto, maybe in some commercial lines as well?

兩個問題，如果可以的話。一，關於佛羅里達改革。我意識到你們在佛羅里達州的市場份額偏低或整體偏小。但是您是否期望影響會超出個人、汽車領域，也許還會出現在某些商業領域？

I'll say we are very, very encouraged by what they've done in Florida. We think it's great progress. And I think we're just going to wait and need to see how it plays out a little bit. It's been a pretty challenged market over a pretty long period of time, still competing against citizens. It's pricing at a subsidized level. The current reinsurance market doesn't help.

我會說我們對他們在佛羅里達所做的事情感到非常、非常鼓舞。我們認為這是一個很大的進步。而且我認為我們只是等待，需要看看它是如何發揮作用的。在相當長的一段時間內，它一直是一個充滿挑戰的市場，仍在與公民競爭。它的定價處於補貼水平。當前的再保險市場無濟於事。

So I guess I'd say we're going to watch it with great interest and continue to evaluate the opportunity, but we are very encouraged by what they've done in Florida.

所以我想我會說我們將非常感興趣地觀看它並繼續評估機會，但我們對他們在佛羅里達所做的事情感到非常鼓舞。

Okay. And then just on Slide 21 of the presentation on the real estate portfolio, again, realize high quality, relatively small. One thing that caught my eye is you said that the appraised values are meaningful -- meaningfully in excess of carrying value. I'm just curious how often the properties are appraised or when were they last appraised?

好的。然後就在幻燈片 21 的房地產投資組合演示文稿中，再次實現高質量，相對較小。引起我注意的一件事是你說評估價值是有意義的——有意義地超過賬面價值。我只是好奇這些房產多久評估一次或者上次評估是什麼時候？

This is Dan Yin from Investments. We go through an official appraisal every year annually. But quarterly, we do sort of notebook type of appraisal as well.

我是來自 Investments 的 Dan Yin。我們每年都會進行官方評估。但是每個季度，我們也會進行某種筆記本類型的評估。

And I will now turn the call back over to Abbe Goldstein for some final closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Abbe Goldstein，聽取一些最後的結束語。

Thank you all for joining us today. And as usual, if there's any follow-up, please get in touch with Investor Relations directly, and have a good day.

感謝大家今天加入我們。和往常一樣，如果有任何後續行動，請直接與投資者關係部聯繫，祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。