旅行家集團 (TRV) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the second quarter results teleconference for Travelers. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on July 21, 2022.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎來到 Travelers 的第二季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2022 年 7 月 21 日錄製。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Abbe Goldstein 女士。戈德斯坦女士，你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our second quarter 2022 results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.

謝謝你。早上好，歡迎來到旅行者對我們 2022 年第二季度業績的討論。我們今天早上早些時候發布了我們的新聞稿、財務補充和網絡廣播演示。所有這些材料都可以在我們的網站 travels.com 的“投資者”部分找到。

Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, CFO; and our 3 segment presidents: Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance, Jeff Klenk of Specialty Insurance and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance. They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take your questions.

今天發言的將是董事長兼首席執行官 Alan Schnitzer；首席財務官丹弗雷；以及我們的 3 位部門總裁：商業保險的 Greg Toczydlowski、專業保險的 Jeff Klenk 和個人保險的 Michael Klein。他們將討論我們業務的財務業績和當前的市場環境。他們將在閱讀準備好的評論時參考網絡廣播演示文稿，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation.

在我將電話轉給 Alan 之前，我想提請您注意網絡廣播演示結束時包含的解釋性說明。

Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC.

我們今天的演講包括前瞻性陳述。公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，不能保證未來業績。由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿和我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-Q 和 10-K 的前瞻性陳述中進行了描述。

We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials in the Investors section on our website.

我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的任何義務。同樣在我們的評論或對問題的回答中，我們可能會提到一些非公認會計原則的財務措施。我們最近的收益新聞稿、財務補充和我們網站“投資者”部分的其他材料中包含了對賬。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

現在我想把電話轉給 Alan Schnitzer。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We are pleased to report a very strong second quarter, including an excellent bottom-line result, double-digit top line growth in all 3 segments, strong and improved profitability in our commercial business segment, progress addressing the rental headwinds facing the personal insurance industry, a meaningful contribution from net investment income and another quarter of progress on a number of important strategic initiatives.

謝謝你，阿貝。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們。我們很高興地報告第二季度非常強勁，包括出色的底線業績、所有 3 個部門的兩位數收入增長、我們商業業務部門的強勁和改善的盈利能力、解決個人保險業面臨的租金逆風的進展，來自淨投資收入的有意義的貢獻以及一些重要戰略舉措的另一季度進展。

Core income for the quarter was $625 million or $2.50 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 9.3%. These results were driven by record net earned premiums of $8.3 billion, up 9% over the prior year quarter and a solid underlying combined ratio of 92.8% -- environmental issues impacting insurance industry, consolidated results reflect the benefit of our diversified portfolio of businesses.

本季度的核心收入為 6.25 億美元或每股攤薄收益 2.50 美元，核心股本回報率為 9.3%。這些結果是由創紀錄的 83 億美元淨賺保費推動的，比去年同期增長 9%，以及 92.8% 的穩健基礎綜合成本率——影響保險業的環境問題，綜合結果反映了我們多元化業務組合的好處。

For the 6 months, core -- was ahead of the prior year at $1.66 billion, an excellent first half result. We're particularly pleased with the continued strong underlying results for our commercial businesses. Looking at the 2 commercial businesses together, the combined BI-BSI underlying combined ratio of 2.7% for the quarter, an improvement of 1 point from the prior year quarter.

6 個月以來，核心 -- 以 16.6 億美元領先於上一年，上半年業績非常出色。我們對我們的商業業務持續強勁的基本業績感到特別高興。綜合這兩項商業業務來看，本季度合併後的 BI-BSI 基礎綜合比率為 2.7%，比去年同期提高 1 個百分點。

Results in Personal Insurance were impacted by elevated severity in both auto and home. As you'll hear from Michael, we're on the right track in addressing the environmental issues. Excellent operations together with our balance sheet enabled us to grow adjusted book value per share by 8% over the past year after making important investments in our business, turning excess capital to shareholders.

個人保險的結果受到汽車和家庭嚴重程度升高的影響。正如您從邁克爾那裡聽到的那樣，我們在解決環境問題方面正走在正確的軌道上。出色的運營加上我們的資產負債表使我們在過去一年對我們的業務進行了重要投資後，將調整後的每股賬面價值增長了 8%，將多餘的資本轉給了股東。

During the quarter, we returned $725 million of excess capital to our shareholders, including $500 million of share repurchases.

在本季度，我們向股東返還了 7.25 億美元的超額資本，其中包括 5 億美元的股票回購。

Turning to the top line, thanks to excellent execution by our colleagues in the field and the strong franchise value we offer to our customers and distribution partners, we grew net written premiums by 11% this quarter to a record $9 billion with, as I mentioned, each of our 3 segments growing double digits.

談到收入，由於我們在該領域的同事的出色執行以及我們為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的強大特許經營價值，我們本季度的淨承保保費增長了 11%，達到創紀錄的 90 億美元，正如我所提到的，我們的 3 個細分市場中的每一個都增長了兩位數。

In Business Insurance, net working premiums grew by 10%. Renewal premium change was 10.3%. That's the fourth highest quarterly renewal premium change going back more than 15 years. Renewal premium change included renewal rate change of 4.9%. Both measures moved up from the preceding quarter.

在商業保險方面，淨營運保費增長了 10%。續保保費變化為 10.3%。這是 15 年來第四高的季度續訂保費變化。續保保費變化包括 4.9% 的續保費率變化。這兩項指標均較上一季度有所上升。

Retention remained very strong at 86%. We have a high-quality book of business and keeping it as a priority. Also, as we've shared previously, strong retention is a sign of a rational and stable pricing market.

保留率仍然很高，為 86%。我們有一本高質量的商業書籍，並將其作為優先事項。此外，正如我們之前所分享的，強大的留存率是合理且穩定的定價市場的標誌。

Underneath the headline numbers, execution in terms of rate retention at a segmented level was excellent. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, net written premiums increased by 13%, driven by excellent production in both our Surety and Management Liability businesses. Surety net written premiums were up 24%. Management Liability premiums were up 7% and driven by a rental premium change of 8.8%, retention that increased to a very strong 88% and strong new business.

在標題數字下方，細分級別的利率保留率非常出色。在債券和特殊保險業務中，淨承保保費增長了 13%，這得益於我們的擔保業務和管理責任業務的出色表現。保證淨承保保費上漲 24%。管理責任保費增長 7%，主要受租金保費變化 8.8%、保留率提高至非常強勁的 88% 和強勁的新業務的推動。

In Personal Insurance, net written premiums increased by 12%. We know a premium change was meaningfully higher, both year-over-year and sequentially in auto and homeowners as we continue to execute to improve returns. You'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results.

在個人保險方面，淨承保保費增加了 12%。我們知道，隨著我們繼續執行以提高回報，汽車和房主的保費變化明顯更高，無論是同比還是環比。您將很快從 Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 那裡聽到更多關於我們細分市場結果的信息。

Turning to investments. Our high-quality portfolio generated net investment income of $595 million after tax for the quarter, reflecting reliable results from our fixed income portfolio and another quarter of strong returns from our nonfixed income portfolio.

轉向投資。我們高質量的投資組合在本季度產生了 5.95 億美元的稅後淨投資收入，這反映了我們的固定收益投資組合的可靠結果以及我們非固定收益投資組合的另一個季度的強勁回報。

Speaking of investments, given the potential for a difficult economic environment ahead, we've included on Page 19 of the webcast presentation a slide breaking down the composition of our investment portfolio. Consistent with our long-time focus on risk-adjusted returns, we're underweight compared to most in terms of risk assets as a percentage of shareholders' equity.

談到投資，考慮到未來可能面臨困難的經濟環境，我們在網絡廣播演示的第 19 頁中加入了一張幻燈片，分解了我們投資組合的構成。與我們長期以來對風險調整後回報的關注相一致，與大多數風險資產相比，我們在風險資產佔股東權益的百分比方面是減持的。

Our investment philosophy has served us well over many years and through many different market cycles. It starts with asset allocation. More than 90% of our $80 billion portfolio is invested in fixed income securities. That sets us apart.

多年來，我們的投資理念在許多不同的市場週期中一直為我們服務。它從資產配置開始。我們 800 億美元的投資組合中有 90% 以上投資於固定收益證券。這讓我們與眾不同。

Inside that, we also have relatively high allocation to municipal bonds where the default rate has been meaningfully lower as compared to corporate bonds. Even within munis, we're discriminating. We're invested in only about 1,000 municipal issuers out of an estimated 80,000. Virtually all of our municipal bond holdings are rated AA- or higher.

其中，我們對市政債券的配置也相對較高，與公司債券相比，違約率明顯較低。即使在市政當局內部，我們也存在歧視。在估計的 80,000 家市政發行人中，我們只投資了大約 1,000 家。我們持有的幾乎所有市政債券的評級都為 AA- 或更高。

Our corporate bond portfolio is curated with the same level of discipline. Virtually all of it is investment grade. And within that, we are meaningful overweight AA and A credits and meaningfully underweight BBB credit.

我們的公司債券投資組合以同樣的紀律進行策劃。幾乎所有這些都是投資級別的。在此範圍內，我們顯著增持 AA 和 A 信用，顯著減持 BBB 信用。

During times of economic distress, credit quality is key and in the sometimes foreseeable and sometimes unforeseeable lead up to those times, when spreads widen and volatility increases, the market doesn't allow for a graceful repositioning of a portfolio. So we stay true to the strategy that has served us well over decades.

在經濟困難時期，信用質量是關鍵，在有時可預見、有時不可預見的時期，當利差擴大和波動性增加時，市場不允許對投資組合進行優雅的重新定位。因此，我們堅持幾十年來一直為我們服務的戰略。

Our level of actual impairments over a long period of time has been remarkably low. In 2008 and 2009, with the Moody's default percentage reached 2% to 2.5%, our default rate never reached 1%. In the COVID charge turmoil of 2020, when the Moody's default rate at 1%, our portfolio default rate was around 10 basis points.

長期以來，我們的實際損害水平非常低。 2008 年和 2009 年，隨著穆迪違約率達到 2% 到 2.5%，我們的違約率從未達到 1%。在 2020 年的新冠疫情衝擊中，當穆迪違約率為 1% 時，我們的投資組合違約率約為 10 個基點。

And given the credit quality of our portfolio, the fact that we hold the vast majority of fixed income investments to maturity, decreases in market value due to rising interest rates as the market is experiencing now have little to no impact on how we run the business or how we view the strength of our capital position.

鑑於我們投資組合的信用質量，我們將絕大多數固定收益投資持有至到期，由於市場正在經歷的利率上升導致市場價值下降，這對我們經營業務的方式幾乎沒有影響或者我們如何看待我們的資本實力。

In terms of our investments in alternative asset class, we don't reach for yield. Our private equity portfolio is well diversified across strategies, sectors and general partners. Our own real estate is high quality and entirely unlevered. And we have little in the way of hedge funds and higher risk assets.

就我們對另類資產類別的投資而言，我們不追求收益。我們的私募股權投資組合在戰略、行業和普通合夥人方面非常多元化。我們自己的房地產是高質量的，完全沒有槓桿作用。而且我們幾乎沒有對沖基金和高風險資產。

Although we see potential short-term headwinds from recent declines in the equity markets, we also see near-term and potentially ongoing tailwinds from higher interest rates that will benefit our returns going forward. You'll hear from Dan shortly about how the recent rise in interest rates positively impacts our outlook for fixed income NII.

儘管我們看到近期股市下跌可能帶來短期不利因素，但我們也看到利率上升帶來的近期和潛在持續不利因素，這將有利於我們未來的回報。您很快就會聽到丹關於近期利率上升如何對我們對固定收益 NII 的前景產生積極影響的消息。

Like everything we do, all starts with our tower. We have a world-class investment team that is responsible for executing on our investment philosophy. Those with position-making authority have worked with us and with each other for an average of around 20 years. That reinforces the long-term perspective we bring to our investment portfolio.

就像我們所做的一切一樣，一切都從我們的塔開始。我們擁有世界一流的投資團隊，負責執行我們的投資理念。那些擁有決策權的人與我們以及彼此合作的平均時間約為 20 年。這加強了我們為投資組合帶來的長期視角。

I'm always grateful for their excellent work. But particularly at times like this, I'm reminded of the wisdom of our approach. It has contributed to a long history of industry-leading returns and industry-low volatility.

我總是感謝他們出色的工作。但特別是在這樣的時候，我想起了我們方法的智慧。它促成了行業領先的回報和行業低波動性的悠久歷史。

To sum things up, building on our excellent results in the first half of the year, we're confident about our outlook, benefiting from years of strategic investments as part of our performance transform called action, guided by our decades of experience successfully executing in a variety of macroeconomic conditions and supported by an outlook for improving fixed income returns. We remain well positioned to deliver industry-leading returns and shareholder value over time.

總而言之，在上半年取得優異成績的基礎上，我們對自己的前景充滿信心，受益於多年的戰略投資，這是我們稱為行動的績效轉變的一部分，以我們數十年的成功執行經驗為指導各種宏觀經濟條件，並得到固定收益回報前景改善的支持。隨著時間的推移，我們仍然有能力提供行業領先的回報和股東價值。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

有了這個，我很高興把電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Alan. Core income for the second quarter was $625 million and core return on equity was 9.3%. These results were very strong, especially considering the high level of cat losses, which is typical seasonality for us in the second quarter. While core income declined from the prior year quarter, remember that the prior year quarter included a very benign level of cat losses and record returns from the non-fixed income portfolio.

謝謝你，艾倫。第二季度的核心收入為 6.25 億美元，核心股本回報率為 9.3%。這些結果非常強勁，特別是考慮到貓損失的高水平，這對我們來說是第二季度的典型季節性。雖然核心收入較去年同期有所下降，但請記住，去年同期包括非常溫和的巨額損失和非固定收益投資組合的創紀錄回報。

Our second quarter results include $746 million of pretax catastrophe losses. And while cats were higher year-over-year, they were not outsized relative to our modeled estimates for the second quarter. On a year-to-date basis, we've accumulated $935 million of qualifying losses toward the aggregate retention of $2 billion on our property aggregate catastrophe XOL treaty.

我們第二季度的業績包括 7.46 億美元的稅前巨災損失。雖然貓的數量同比增長，但與我們對第二季度的模型估計相比，它們的規模並沒有太大。從年初至今，我們已經累積了 9.35 億美元的合格損失，我們的財產總巨災 XOL 條約總共保留了 20 億美元。

Our after-tax underlying underwriting gain of $444 million was down slightly from the prior year quarter. We generated record levels of earned premium and reported an underlying combined ratio of 92.8%. Improvements in the underlying combined ratio in both Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty were more than offset by an increase in the underlying combined ratio in personal insurance. Greg, Jeff and Michael will provide more detail on each segment's results in a few minutes.

我們的稅後基本承保收益為 4.44 億美元，比去年同期略有下降。我們創造了創紀錄的已賺保費水平，並報告了 92.8% 的基本綜合成本率。商業保險和債券與特種險的基本綜合比率的改善被個人保險的基本綜合比率的增加所抵消。 Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 將在幾分鐘內提供有關每個部分結果的更多詳細信息。

At the same time that we continue to make significant investments in strategic initiatives, the second quarter expense ratio improved 70 basis points from last year to 29% driven by the combination of our focus on productivity and efficiency and strong top line growth. We had been expecting the full year expense ratio to be around 29.5% but now expected to be more like 29% this year, getting down to that level a little sooner than we had expected.

在我們繼續對戰略舉措進行重大投資的同時，由於我們對生產力和效率的關注以及強勁的收入增長，第二季度費用率比去年提高了 70 個基點至 29%。我們一直預計全年費用率將在 29.5% 左右，但現在預計今年會更接近 29%，比我們預期的要早一點下降到這個水平。

Turning to prior year reserve development. We had total net favorable development of $291 million pretax in the second quarter. In Business Insurance, net favorable PYD of $202 million was driven by better-than-expected loss experience in workers' comp across a number of accident years and favorable movement in CMP partially offset by an increase in general liability reserves, including for runoff operations.

轉向上一年的儲備開發。我們在第二季度的稅前淨有利發展總額為 2.91 億美元。在商業保險方面，2.02 億美元的淨有利 PYD 是由於多個事故年份的工人賠償損失經驗好於預期，以及 CMP 的有利變動部分被包括徑流操作在內的一般責任準備金的增加所抵消。

In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD of $73 million was driven by better-than-expected results in Fidelity and Surety. Personal Insurance had $16 million of net favorable PYD with modest movement in both auto and home.

在 Bond & Specialty 中，7300 萬美元的淨有利 PYD 是由於 Fidelity 和 Surety 的業績好於預期。個人保險有 1600 萬美元的淨有利 PYD，汽車和家庭的變動不大。

After-tax net investment income decreased by 13% from the prior year quarter to $595 million. We were pleased that returns in our nonfixed income portfolio were strong, but as expected, they were less favorable than last year's record quarter. Fixed maturity NII was again higher than in the prior year quarter as the benefit of higher invested assets more than offset the impact of lower average yields during the quarter.

稅後淨投資收入較去年同期下降 13% 至 5.95 億美元。我們很高興我們的非固定收益投資組合的回報強勁，但正如預期的那樣，它們不如去年創紀錄的季度那麼有利。固定期限 NII 再次高於去年同期，因為投資資產增加的好處抵消了該季度平均收益率下降的影響。

With interest rates having moved higher during the second quarter, we are again raising our outlook for fixed income NII including earnings from short-term securities to approximately $470 million after tax in the third quarter and then to $495 million in the fourth quarter.

隨著第二季度利率上升，我們再次將固定收益 NII 的前景（包括短期證券收益）上調至第三季度稅後約 4.7 億美元，然後在第四季度提高至 4.95 億美元。

New money rates as of June 30 are about 100 basis points higher than what is embedded in the portfolio. So NII should continue to improve as the portfolio gradually turns over and as the portfolio continues to grow. Recall that results for our private equities, real estate partnerships and hedge funds are generally reported to us on a 1-quarter lag. While not perfectly correlated, our non-fixed income returns directionally follow the broader equity markets, which were down significantly during the second quarter.

截至 6 月 30 日的新貨幣利率比投資組合中嵌入的利率高約 100 個基點。因此，隨著投資組合的逐漸周轉和投資組合的持續增長，NII 應該會繼續改善。回想一下，我們的私募股權、房地產合作夥伴關係和對沖基金的業績通常滯後 1 個季度向我們報告。雖然不完全相關，但我們的非固定收益回報方向跟隨更廣泛的股票市場，後者在第二季度大幅下跌。

Through the first half of the year, the S&P 500 was down 21% with about 3/4 of that decline occurring in Q2. Accordingly, we expect that to impact our nonfixed income results next quarter.

今年上半年，標準普爾 500 指數下跌了 21%，其中約 3/4 的跌幅發生在第二季度。因此，我們預計這將影響我們下個季度的非固定收益業績。

Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter of $1.4 billion were again very strong. All our capital ratios were at or better than target levels, and we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $1.6 billion. Interest rates increased and spreads continued to widen during the quarter. And as a result, our net unrealized investment loss increased from $1.4 billion after tax at March 31 to $3.8 billion after tax at June 30.

轉向資本管理。本季度 14 億美元的經營現金流再次非常強勁。我們所有的資本比率都達到或好於目標水平，在本季度末，我們的控股公司流動性約為 16 億美元。本季度利率上升，利差繼續擴大。因此，我們的未實現淨投資損失從 3 月 31 日的稅後 14 億美元增加到 6 月 30 日的稅後 38 億美元。

As we've discussed in prior quarters, the changes in unrealized investment gains and losses generally do not impact how we manage our investment portfolio. We regularly hold fixed income investments to maturity. The quality of our fixed income portfolio remains, as Alan discussed, very high. And changes in unrealized gains and losses have little impact on our statutory surplus or regulatory capital requirements.

正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的，未實現投資損益的變化通常不會影響我們管理投資組合的方式。我們定期持有固定收益投資至到期。正如艾倫所說，我們的固定收益投資組合的質量仍然非常高。未實現損益的變化對我們的法定盈餘或監管資本要求影響不大。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $112.37 at quarter end, up 2.4% from year-end and up 8.2% from a year ago. We returned $725 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter comprising share repurchases of $500 million and dividends of $225 million. We have approximately $3 billion of capacity remaining under the most recent share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors.

不包括未實現淨投資收益和損失的調整後每股賬面價值在季度末為 112.37 美元，比年底增長 2.4%，比去年同期增長 8.2%。本季度我們向股東返還了 7.25 億美元的資本，其中包括 5 億美元的股票回購和 2.25 億美元的股息。根據我們董事會最近的股票回購授權，我們還有大約 30 億美元的產能。

It's also worth noting that in June, we early renewed our $1 billion credit facility for a 5-year term. While the size of the facility and the group of participating banks was unchanged, we reduced our annual cost of the facility primarily through lower undrawn pricing while also improving other terms and conditions. In a time of rising borrowing costs and tightening credit terms, our financial strength, strong operating performance and consistent fiscal discipline still enable us to obtain very favorable terms. You can see all the details in our 10-Q.

還值得注意的是，在 6 月，我們提前更新了 10 億美元的信貸額度，期限為 5 年。雖然融資規模和參與銀行集團保持不變，但我們主要通過降低未提取定價來降低融資的年度成本，同時改善其他條款和條件。在藉貸成本上升和信貸條件收緊的情況下，我們的財務實力、強勁的經營業績和一貫的財政紀律仍然使我們能夠獲得非常優惠的條件。您可以在我們的 10-Q 中查看所有詳細信息。

Similarly, during the second quarter, we issued a new 4-year cat bond, providing uninterrupted coverage upon the expiration of our prior cat bonds. The new bond, Long Point Re IV Ltd increases the amount of coverage available to $575 million. The recently expired cat bonds had provided $500 million worth of coverage. Specific terms are shown on Page 20 of the webcast presentation, and we're very pleased with the results.

同樣，在第二季度，我們發行了新的 4 年期巨災債券，在我們之前的巨災債券到期時提供不間斷的保障。新債券 Long Point Re IV Ltd 將可用保障額增加到 5.75 億美元。最近到期的巨災債券提供了價值 5 億美元的保障。具體條款顯示在網絡廣播演示的第 20 頁，我們對結果非常滿意。

Here again, our disciplined underwriting and consistent outperformance in the property line enabled us to increase our coverage and attain a reasonable rate online at a time when some parts of the market are finding reinsurance capacity harder to come by.

再一次，當市場的某些部分發現再保險能力更難獲得時，我們紀律嚴明的承保和在財產險領域的持續優異表現使我們能夠擴大覆蓋範圍並在線獲得合理的費率。

Also on Page 20 of the webcast presentation, you'll find a summary of our July 1 reinsurance renewals. The structure of our main cat reinsurance program is generally consistent with the expiring program. And while as expected, we did see some price increase. It was in line with the price increases we're obtaining on the direct property premiums we're writing. So there's no adverse impact on margins.

此外，在網絡廣播演示的第 20 頁上，您還可以找到我們 7 月 1 日再保險續保的摘要。我們主要的貓再保險計劃的結構與到期計劃基本一致。雖然正如預期的那樣，我們確實看到了一些價格上漲。這與我們正在撰寫的直接房地產溢價的價格上漲一致。因此，對利潤率沒有不利影響。

It's also worth noting that we increased the coverage under our Northeast property treaty by $150 million to $750 million, part of $850 million, above the same $2.25 billion attachment point.

還值得注意的是，我們將東北房地產條約的覆蓋範圍增加了 1.5 億美元，達到 7.5 億美元，是 8.5 億美元的一部分，高於同樣的 22.5 億美元的附加點。

So to sum it up, we had an excellent quarter with double-digit premium growth in all 3 segments, solid underwriting profitability and an improved outlook for fixed income NII, all of which bodes well for our future returns.

總而言之，我們有一個出色的季度，所有 3 個細分市場的保費增長均達到兩位數，承保盈利能力穩健，固定收益 NII 前景改善，所有這些都預示著我們未來的回報。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of business insurance.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給格雷格討論商業保險。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance continues to have a strong 2022 with another terrific quarter in terms of both financial results and execution in the marketplace. Second quarter segment income was $666 million, up about 4% from the prior year quarter driven by higher net favorable prior year reserve development and higher underlying underwriting income.

謝謝，丹。商業保險在 2022 年繼續保持強勁勢頭，在財務業績和市場執行方面又是一個了不起的季度。第二季度分部收入為 6.66 億美元，比上年同期增長約 4%，這主要得益於上一年淨有利的儲備開發和更高的基本承保收入。

The quarter's very strong underlying combined ratio of 92.4% was about 1 point better than the second quarter of 2021 driven by improvement in the expense ratio resulting from the combination of the leverage from higher earned premiums and the benefits of our strategic focus on productivity and efficiency. The underlying loss ratio was about flat to the prior year quarter, reflecting the benefit of higher earned pricing as well as elevated property loss activity in the current quarter.

本季度非常強勁的 92.4% 的基本綜合成本率比 2021 年第二季度高出約 1 個百分點，這是由於較高的已賺保費的槓桿作用以及我們對生產力和效率的戰略重點的好處相結合而導致的費用比率的改善.基本損失率與去年同期基本持平，反映了本季度較高的盈利定價以及資產損失活動增加的好處。

Net written premiums were up in all domestic markets and lines of business, reaching $4.4 billion for an increase of 10%. Premiums benefited from strong renewal premium change and retention, both of which were once again historically high.

所有國內市場和業務線的淨承保保費均有所上升，達到 44 億美元，增長 10%。保費受益於強勁的續保保費變化和保留，兩者再次創下歷史新高。

Turning to domestic production for the quarter. Renewal premium change of 10.3% was once again exceptionally strong. RPC includes renewal rate change of 4.9%, which was up 0.5 points from the first quarter and exposure growth of almost 6%. Retention was very strong at 86%. New business premium was about $500 million for the quarter.

本季度轉向國內生產。 10.3% 的續保保費變化再次異常強勁。 RPC 包括 4.9% 的續訂率變化，比第一季度上升 0.5 個百分點，曝光率增長近 6%。保留率非常高，達到 86%。本季度的新業務溢價約為 5 億美元。

We're pleased with these production results and our strong execution in the marketplace. Given our high-quality book as well as several years of segmented rate increases and improvements in terms and conditions, we're thrilled to continue to produce historically strong retention levels. The rate gains we achieved in the quarter reflect deliberate execution given the significant improvements in profitability across the portfolio while continuing the price for the persisting headwinds and uncertainty in the current environment.

我們對這些生產結果和我們在市場上的強大執行力感到滿意。鑑於我們的高質量圖書以及幾年的分段費率增長和條款和條件的改進，我們很高興能夠繼續產生歷史上強勁的保留水平。鑑於整個投資組合的盈利能力顯著提高，同時繼續為當前環境中持續的逆風和不確定性定價，我們在本季度實現的利率增長反映了刻意的執行。

As always, we will continue to execute our granular pricing, careful management of deductibles, attachment points, limits, sub-limits and exclusions to achieve profitable growth. As for the individual businesses, in select, renewal premium change was strong at over 9% while retention of 83% was up 3 points from the prior year quarter.

與往常一樣，我們將繼續執行精細定價，謹慎管理免賠額、附加點、限制、次級限制和排除項，以實現盈利增長。個別業務方面，續保保費變化強勁，超過 9%，保有率 83%，較上年同期上升 3 個百分點。

New business was up 8% from the prior year quarter driven by the continued success of our BOP 2.0 product. In addition to contributing to growth, the new BOP product is also contributing to improved margins in this business through industry-leading segmentation. Overall for Select, we're pleased with the improvement in profitability levels as well as the continued momentum in new business growth.

在我們的 BOP 2.0 產品持續成功的推動下，新業務比去年同期增長了 8%。除了促進增長外，新的 BOP 產品還通過行業領先的細分為提高該業務的利潤率做出了貢獻。總體而言，對於 Select，我們對盈利水平的提高以及新業務增長的持續勢頭感到滿意。

In Middle Market, renewal premium change remained very strong at over 10% while retention remained historically high at 88%. Underneath the RPC of 10%, renewal rate change of 4.8% was up 0.5 point from the first quarter while exposure growth was nearly 6%.

在中間市場，續保保費變化仍然非常強勁，超過 10%，而保留率保持在 88% 的歷史高位。在 10% 的 RPC 下，4.8% 的續訂率變化比第一季度上升 0.5 個百分點，而曝光率增長接近 6%。

To sum up, Business Insurance had a terrific first half of the year. We continued to deliver strong results while investing in capabilities to enhance our data and analytics leadership, digitize the commercial transaction and develop sophisticated and relevant products to drive profitable growth for the future.

綜上所述，商業保險上半年表現出色。我們繼續取得強勁的業績，同時投資能力以增強我們的數據和分析領導地位，將商業交易數字化並開發複雜的相關產品，以推動未來的盈利增長。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty had a terrific quarter on both the top and bottom lines. Segment income was $228 million, up 22% from the prior year quarter driven by a higher level of net favorable prior year reserve development and higher underlying underwriting income. The underlying combined ratio was an excellent 82.2%, an improvement of 1.2 points from the prior year quarter.

謝謝，格雷格。 Bond & Specialty 的收入和利潤都表現出色。分部收入為 2.28 億美元，較上年同期增長 22%，主要得益於上年淨有利儲備開發水平和基礎承保收入增加。基礎綜合成本率為 82.2%，比去年同期提高 1.2 個百分點。

Turning to the top line. Net written premiums grew a very strong 13% in the quarter to a record high with contributions from all our businesses. Domestic Surety posted exceptional 24% growth in the quarter driven by larger average bond premiums.

轉向頂線。在我們所有業務的貢獻下，本季度的淨承保保費增長了 13%，創歷史新高。在平均債券溢價增加的推動下，國內擔保公司在本季度實現了 24% 的非凡增長。

In domestic Management Liability, we are pleased that we drove a 2-point improvement in retention while renewal premium change of 8.8% remains strong following 6 straight double-digit quarters. We're also pleased that we increased new business 16% from the prior year quarter.

在國內管理負債方面，我們很高興我們推動保留率提高了 2 個百分點，而續保保費變化 8.8% 在連續 6 個季度實現兩位數之後保持強勁。我們也很高興我們的新業務比去年同期增加了 16%。

So both top and bottom-line results for Bond & Specialty were terrific this quarter, reflecting excellent execution across our business and the value of our market-leading products and services to our customers and distribution partners.

因此，Bond & Specialty 本季度的營收和利潤都非常出色，反映了我們業務的出色執行以及我們市場領先的產品和服務對客戶和分銷合作夥伴的價值。

And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

現在我將把電話轉給邁克爾。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. For the second quarter, Personal Insurance reported a combined ratio of 111%. While it's not unusual for us to generate an underwriting loss in the second quarter, it typically has the highest weather-related loss activity, this quarter's results were also impacted by the inflationary pressure that we and the industry have been experiencing for the past few quarters.

謝謝，傑夫，大家早上好。第二季度，個人保險報告的綜合成本率為 111%。雖然我們在第二季度產生承保損失並不罕見，但它通常具有最高的天氣相關損失活動，本季度的結果也受到我們和行業在過去幾個季度中所經歷的通脹壓力的影響.

In total, the combined ratio increased 11.5 points compared to the prior year quarter and included a higher underlying combined ratio, higher catastrophe losses and lower favorable prior year reserve development. The 5-point increase in the underlying combined ratio reflects elevated loss severity in both automobile and homeowners and other, and in comparison to a low level of automobile losses in the prior year quarter.

總體而言，綜合成本率與去年同期相比增加了 11.5 個百分點，其中包括更高的基礎綜合成本率、更高的巨災損失和更低的有利上年儲備開發。基本綜合比率增加 5 個百分點反映了汽車和房主及其他方面的損失嚴重程度有所提高，而上一季度汽車損失的水平較低。

Catastrophe losses were nearly 5 points higher than in the prior year quarter but not out of line with our assumption for second quarter catastrophes. Net written premiums for the quarter grew 12% driven by higher renewal premium changes in both domestic automobile and Homeowners & Other.

巨災損失比去年同期高出近 5 個百分點，但與我們對第二季度巨災的假設不符。本季度的淨承保保費增長了 12%，這是由於國內汽車和房主及其他方面的續保保費變化增加。

In automobile, the second quarter combined ratio was 104.3% and the underlying combined ratio was 101.8%, an increase of about 10 points relative to the prior year quarter. The increase reflects elevated vehicle replacement and repair costs. To a lesser extent, the increase is also a result of a comparison to a prior year quarter that still reflected lower loss -- lower claim frequency related to the pandemic.

汽車方面，二季度綜合成本率為104.3%，基礎綜合成本率為101.8%，較上年同期上升約10個百分點。這一增長反映了車輛更換和維修成本的增加。在較小程度上，這一增長也是與去年同期相比的結果，該季度仍然反映了較低的損失——與大流行相關的索賠頻率較低。

Our primary response to the environmental challenge of inflation is higher pricing. We are pleased with our actions to increase rates over the past few quarters and remain confident in our ability to achieve further increases. As we have indicated in past quarters, it will take some time for rate actions to fully earn into our results.

我們對通貨膨脹的環境挑戰的主要反應是更高的定價。我們對過去幾個季度提高利率的行動感到滿意，並對我們實現進一步增長的能力充滿信心。正如我們在過去幾個季度中所指出的那樣，利率行動需要一些時間才能完全影響我們的業績。

In Homeowners and Other, the second quarter combined ratio was 118% and included 29 points of catastrophes primarily from severe wind and hail events across several regions in the U.S. The underlying combined ratio for the quarter was 90.3%, comparable to the prior year quarter. We continue to experience loss severity related to a -- higher loss severity related to a combination of labor and material price increases, but that was largely offset by various items, including a comparison to a prior year quarter that included elevated non-weather losses as well as the current quarter benefits of earned pricing.

在房主和其他方面，第二季度的綜合成本率為 118%，其中包括主要來自美國多個地區的強風和冰雹事件的 29 個災難點。本季度的基本綜合成本率為 90.3%，與去年同期相當。我們繼續經歷與勞動力和材料價格上漲相關的更高損失嚴重程度相關的損失嚴重程度，但這在很大程度上被各種項目所抵消，包括與上一季度的比較，其中包括非天氣損失增加以及賺取定價的當前季度收益。

Turning to quarterly production. We continue to make excellent progress in achieving pricing increases. For domestic automobile, renewal premium change was 6.3%, up a full 3 points from the first quarter of 2022. We continue to increase renewal premium changes and expect RPC to reach double digits by the fourth quarter.

轉向季度生產。我們在實現價格上漲方面繼續取得出色進展。國產車續保費變化為 6.3%，較 2022 年第一季度增長了整整 3 個百分點。我們繼續加大續保保費變化，預計 RPC 到第四季度將達到兩位數。

For domestic homeowners and other, renewal premium change increased about 1.5 points from the first quarter to a record high of 13.5%. The increase in renewal premium change was from both higher insured values and increased rate.

對於國內房主等，續保保費變化較第一季度增加約1.5個百分點至13.5%的歷史新高。續保保費變化的增加來自較高的保險價值和增加的費率。

While our primary focus is on improving profitability, we're not distracted from continuing to invest in capabilities to sustain our success. For example, in the quarter, we introduced new artificial intelligence-enabled aerial imagery to enhance our property underwriting and risk selection while simplifying the quoting process for agency customers. This is just one example of how we continue to advance our sophistication and risk expertise as part of our innovation agenda.

雖然我們的主要重點是提高盈利能力，但我們不會分心繼續投資能力以維持我們的成功。例如，在本季度，我們引入了新的人工智能航空影像，以增強我們的財產承保和風險選擇，同時簡化代理客戶的報價流程。這只是我們如何繼續提升我們的複雜性和風險專業知識作為我們創新議程的一部分的一個例子。

With our focus on performing -- on both performing and transforming, we remain confident in our ability to improve profitability over time while continuing to build the business for the future.

由於我們專注於執行——同時關注執行和轉型，我們仍然有信心隨著時間的推移提高盈利能力，同時繼續為未來建立業務。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

現在我將把電話轉回給阿貝。

Thank you, and we are ready to open up for Q&A.

謝謝你，我們準備好接受問答了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Michael Phillips from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Phillips。

I guess first question on auto, for personal auto. It feels like your rate activity has been a little bit later to take hold than peers and maybe still a little bit below loss trend. I just wanted to see if you agree with that. And then if so, kind of 2-part question of that. Just how do you view your profitability of the current book in auto? You're taking on some good new business there. So how is the profitability of the current book?

我想關於汽車的第一個問題，對於個人汽車。感覺你的利率活動比同行晚了一點，可能仍然低於虧損趨勢。我只是想看看你是否同意。然後，如果是這樣，那是兩部分的問題。您如何看待當前汽車圖書的盈利能力？你在那裡開展了一些不錯的新業務。那麼目前這本書的盈利能力如何？

And then I guess just -- we've seen some actions from others in prior period development. And I guess just confidence that that's not going to be the case for you guys.

然後我猜只是 - 我們已經看到其他人在前期開發中採取了一些行動。我想只是相信你們不會是這樣。

Sure. So I'll take the rate activity question. This is Michael Klein, and then Dan will probably talk about prior period development.

當然。所以我會回答速率活動問題。這是邁克爾克萊恩，然後丹可能會談論前期的發展。

So Michael, I think we've talked about rate pretty much every quarter for the last 3 or 4. As I said in my prepared remarks, we're pleased with our progress. There are certainly some peers who have reported bigger headline rate numbers than we have. Although when we look at the overall marketplace and compare our rate filing activity and our rate levels -- and our rate increase levels with the broader marketplace, we're largely in line with the overall industry, if not a little bit ahead of the industry average.

所以邁克爾，我認為我們幾乎每個季度都在討論過去 3 或 4 個季度的利率。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們對我們的進展感到滿意。肯定有一些同行報告了比我們更大的標題率數字。儘管當我們查看整個市場並比較我們的費率申報活動和費率水平 - 以及我們的費率增長水平與更廣泛的市場時，我們基本上與整個行業一致，如果不是領先於行業的話平均。

Again, there's a couple of peers in particular that have talked about bigger headline numbers than we have. But in aggregate, we continue to be very active in the -- on the rate filing front, continue to incorporate new data into our indications. And as I mentioned, our outlook is we're confident in our ability to continue to increase pricing to the point where we think RPC for personal auto will exceed double digits or get into double digits in the fourth quarter.

同樣，有幾個同行特別談到了比我們更大的標題數字。但總的來說，我們在利率申報方面繼續非常活躍，繼續將新數據納入我們的指標。正如我所提到的，我們的前景是我們有信心繼續將定價提高到我們認為個人汽車的 RPC 將在第四季度超過兩位數或達到兩位數的程度。

So we continue to drive to improve profitability and make progress. And in terms of the new business, the [318] this quarter is up about 6% from the prior year quarter. More of that increase is from RPC now than it was a quarter before. And as you look at the PIF growth, it is starting to decelerate responding to the rate we're putting into the marketplace. So that's sort of the trajectory we're on. And again, the priority is to continue to drive pricing to improve profitability.

因此，我們繼續努力提高盈利能力並取得進展。而在新業務方面，[318]本季度較上年同期增長約6%。與四分之一之前相比，現在更多的增長來自 RPC。當你看到 PIF 的增長時，它開始減速以響應我們投入市場的速度。這就是我們正在走的軌跡。同樣，當務之急是繼續推動定價以提高盈利能力。

Now I'll turn it over to Dan to talk about PYD.

現在我將把它交給 Dan 來談談 PYD。

Mike, it's Dan. So on the PYD question, I guess I'd bring you back to accident years '20 and '21 when we were talking about seeing favorability largely frequency driven but we are seeing favorability in personal auto. We are seeing favorability in commercial auto. We're seeing favorability in non-COVID claims in the workers' comp line. And we said at the time that we were recognizing some of that favorability in our results, but that there was also uncertainty in the environment.

邁克，是丹。所以關於 PYD 的問題，我想我會把你帶回到 20 年和 21 年的事故年，當時我們談論看到受歡迎程度主要是頻率驅動的，但我們看到的是個人汽車的受歡迎程度。我們看到商用汽車的青睞。我們看到工人補償線中非 COVID 索賠的受歡迎程度。我們當時說，我們在結果中認識到了一些有利因素，但環境中也存在不確定性。

And one of the things we talked about was uncertainty around what the ultimate severity of some of those claims might be. And in PI, we talked specifically about the fact that claims were happening at higher speeds and we were seeing some more severity.

我們談到的其中一件事是不確定其中一些索賠的最終嚴重性可能是什麼。在 PI 中，我們特別談到了索賠以更高的速度發生的事實，並且我們看到了更嚴重的情況。

And so we said pretty consistently in 2020 and in 2021 that we were being cautious in our reserving in order to make sure that we were allowing for the additional level of uncertainty that we felt was possible. And so at least so far, the way things are playing out seems to bear that out.

因此，我們在 2020 年和 2021 年非常一致地表示，我們在儲備方面保持謹慎，以確保我們考慮到我們認為可能存在的額外不確定性。所以至少到目前為止，事情的發展方式似乎證明了這一點。

Yes. And Michael, this is Michael Klein again. I just want to add one other comment on the pricing conversation, which is we get a lot of conversation about the headline rate number that people are getting today. It's also important, and we've talked about this in the past, to look back at the history. And our renewal premium change in personal auto never went negative. And we didn't talk about that as much back then when some other carriers had renewal premium change that was negative. So the starting point matters, I guess, is the point that I would add. Thanks for the question.

是的。還有邁克爾，這又是邁克爾·克萊因。我只想在定價對話中添加另一條評論，那就是我們得到了很多關於人們今天得到的標題價格數字的對話。回顧歷史也很重要，我們過去已經討論過這個問題。而且我們在個人汽車方面的續訂保費變化從未變為負數。當其他一些運營商的續訂保費變化為負時，我們並沒有過多地談論這一點。所以起點很重要，我想，是我要補充的一點。謝謝你的問題。

Yes. Okay. Yes. Perfect. That's very helpful. Second, switching gears -- completely switching gears then on comp. Has there been any change in mix of the type of claims you're seeing recently in comp, either mix by permanent versus temporary or partial sources so that kind of mix change that might in fact impact the closure rates of your claims either faster or slower the past year?

是的。好的。是的。完美的。這很有幫助。第二，換檔——完全換檔，然後在comp上。您最近在 comp 中看到的索賠類型的組合是否有任何變化，無論是永久來源還是臨時來源或部分來源的組合，因此這種組合變化實際上可能會更快或更慢地影響您的索賠結案率過去一年？

Michael, this is Greg. We haven't seen any real material mix change. Of course, as we went through the pandemic, we had a certain mix of claims. And so as you normalize that, if we look at our claim mix today to pre-pandemic, there isn't any real material change.

邁克爾，這是格雷格。我們還沒有看到任何真正的材料組合變化。當然，當我們經歷大流行時，我們有一些不同的說法。因此，當您將其正常化時，如果我們將今天的索賠組合與大流行前相比，沒有任何真正的實質性變化。

Your next question comes from Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

I was hoping you could just comment on just the overall outlook for business insurance margins and for further underwriting margin improvement. Certainly, we can look at your renewal rate changes and then we can think about loss costs, which I think you've got to be getting impacted at least some by the CPI inflation that we're seeing. But there's obviously parts that aren't quantifiable for us and we'd just be interested in understanding some of those pieces and how you see it unfolding.

我希望你能就商業保險利潤率的整體前景和進一步的承保利潤率改善發表評論。當然，我們可以查看您的續訂率變化，然後我們可以考慮損失成本，我認為您必須至少受到我們所看到的 CPI 通脹的影響。但顯然有些部分對我們來說是無法量化的，我們只是想了解其中的一些部分以及你如何看待它的展開。

Alex, it's Alan. Let me start and then I'll turn it over to Greg. And let me just start with -- we're starting from a pretty good place. The underlying loss ratio and the overall underlying combined in BI is starting at a very good place. And we don't give outlook on those measures. But let me just make a broad comment, which is if you look at where our overall pricing is today, we would say all other things being equal, it's ahead of loss trend.

亞歷克斯，是艾倫。讓我開始吧，然後我會把它交給格雷格。讓我從一個非常好的地方開始。 BI 中的標的損失率和整體標的組合的起點非常好。我們不會對這些措施進行展望。但讓我做一個廣泛的評論，如果你看看我們今天的整體定價，我們會說在所有其他條件相同的情況下，它領先於虧損趨勢。

And so as that earns in, we would expect some improvement from there. Let me just caveat that with all things are never the same. And so this quarter, for example, we're calling out some elevated level of property loss activity. And it was just a couple of quarters ago when we were calling out favorable property loss activity.

因此，隨著收入的增加，我們預計會有所改善。讓我提醒一下，所有的事情都不一樣。因此，例如，本季度，我們正在呼籲一些更高水平的財產損失活動。就在幾個季度前，我們還在呼籲有利的財產損失活動。

So that kind of stuff is always going to be a little episodic. But when we look at the factors that we would consider to be run rate for lack of a better word, and we look at where pricing is and where we think loss trend is, we think the outlook, again, from a pretty good place is positive.

所以那種東西總是會有點偶發性的。但是，當我們查看由於缺乏更好的詞而被認為是運行率的因素時，我們查看定價在哪里以及我們認為虧損趨勢在哪裡，我們認為前景再次從一個相當不錯的地方開始積極的。

And for my follow-up question, I think you mentioned higher invest -- sorry, higher insured values when you're talking about the personal lines business. But I'd just be interested on the business insurance side of things. The growth is coming in pretty nicely there as well. We can see the exposure units going up. I mean how impactful are sort of the audits around the insured values for the growth? And how much do you expect that to be helping the top line here?

對於我的後續問題，我認為您在談論個人保險業務時提到了更高的投資——抱歉，更高的保險價值。但我只是對商業保險方面感興趣。那裡的增長也很好。我們可以看到曝光單位在上升。我的意思是圍繞保險價值的審計對增長的影響有多大？你認為這對這裡的收入有多大幫助？

Yes. Alex, this is Greg. Yes, clearly, our underwriters are looking at terms and conditions and insured values in this environment and constantly trying to get the right insurance to value on the exposure to the right both new business and renewal. And so that's been an active lever very similar to the personal insurance side. That's more on the transactional side.

是的。亞歷克斯，這是格雷格。是的，很明顯，我們的承保人正在研究這種環境下的條款和條件以及保險價值，並不斷嘗試獲得正確的保險，以評估正確的新業務和續約風險。所以這是一個與個人保險非常相似的主動槓桿。這更多的是在交易方面。

And on the flow side of Select, we do have an inflationary protection guard that we're actively managing to make sure that, that keeps up with the inflation environment. So very much an active management lever for us on the business insurance side.

在 Select 的流動方面，我們確實有一個通脹保護後衛，我們正在積極管理以確保跟上通脹環境。在商業保險方面，這對我們來說是一個非常積極的管理槓桿。

Your next question comes from Greg Peters from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

The first question I had is around what the market seems to be projecting or anticipating a recession either later this year or next. And I was wondering if you could talk about how you might think business insurance and domestic bond and specialty might perform and where the areas of pressure might be if there is indeed a recession?

我遇到的第一個問題是，市場似乎在預測或預計今年晚些時候或明年會出現什麼衰退。我想知道你是否可以談談你認為商業保險、國內債券和特種產品的表現如何，以及如果確實出現衰退，壓力領域可能在哪裡？

And then related to that, I'm just curious as you sort of strategize how you might change your approach to management of the company if this were to come to pass.

然後與此相關，我只是好奇你會制定戰略，如果這成為現實，你可能會如何改變管理公司的方法。

Thanks for the question. And let me just make a couple of general comments and feel free to follow up if I don't scratch the edge. But in a recession, we're going to do what we do. We serve our customers. We serve our distribution partners. We take care of our communities. We take care of our employees. And so from that perspective, it's business as usual for us.

謝謝你的問題。讓我做一些一般性的評論，如果我不抓住邊緣，請隨時跟進。但在經濟衰退中，我們將做我們所做的事情。我們為客戶服務。我們為我們的分銷合作夥伴提供服務。我們照顧我們的社區。我們照顧我們的員工。所以從這個角度來看，這對我們來說一切照舊。

Now we ensure the output of the economy. So we'd expect some impact to the top line, and that's going to impact everybody. But we're pretty well positioned. The work we've done to improve productivity and efficiency positions us well. And we've got the resources and financial strength continue to make investments in our business without interruption.

現在我們保證經濟的產出。所以我們預計會對收入產生一些影響，這會影響到每個人。但我們的定位很好。我們為提高生產力和效率所做的工作使我們處於有利地位。而且我們擁有資源和財務實力，可以繼續不間斷地對我們的業務進行投資。

In terms of credit sensitivity, as I shared in my prepared remarks, the investment portfolio is very high-quality -- high credit quality, as is our surety business. So I guess the only other point I would make in a recession again, you'd expect some maybe pressure on the top line. But if history is any guide, at least in the commercial businesses, maybe you get some relief on loss trend.

就信用敏感度而言，正如我在準備好的評論中所分享的，投資組合質量非常高——信用質量很高，我們的擔保業務也是如此。因此，我想我會再次在經濟衰退中提出的唯一另一點是，您預計收入可能會受到一些壓力。但是，如果歷史可以作為指導，至少在商業業務中，您可能會對虧損趨勢有所緩解。

So we run the business for the long term. We say that all the time. So there's really not a lot we need to do differently. And you can just look and see how we perform through various economic cycles over the years, including recession, financial crisis, et cetera. We think we're very well positioned and we'll do just fine.

因此，我們長期經營業務。我們一直這麼說。所以我們真的不需要做很多不同的事情。你可以看看我們多年來在各種經濟周期中的表現，包括衰退、金融危機等。我們認為我們的位置很好，我們會做得很好。

Got it. Well, Dan, in your comments regarding investment income, you talked about the nonfixed income piece. And you mentioned the fact that the market was down, the S&P is down 21% year-to-date. Is it conceivable that the actual marks in this area of your portfolio might turn negative in the third and fourth quarter, considering the dramatic performance of the market?

知道了。好吧，丹，在您關於投資收益的評論中，您談到了非固定收益部分。你提到了市場下跌的事實，標準普爾指數今年迄今下跌了 21%。考慮到市場的戲劇性表現，您是否可以想像，您投資組合中這一領域的實際分數可能會在第三季度和第四季度變為負數？

Or I guess, in a broader sense, versus saying it's just going to be worse, can you just give us some sort of context of what you think it might look like in the second half of this year?

或者我想，從更廣泛的意義上說，與說情況會變得更糟相比，你能不能給我們一些你認為今年下半年可能會是什麼樣子的背景？

Yes. I think it's very hard to predict. And we've got a portfolio that is individually underwritten. And so that's why we say it's not going to be perfectly correlated. But directionally, if you see weakness in the equity markets, we'd expect to see at least some slowdown in the level of strength. We have, although rarely, seen negative returns in the alternative portfolio in times of extreme disruption like we did in the first or second quarter of 2020 at the onset of COVID.

是的。我認為這很難預測。我們有一個單獨承保的投資組合。這就是為什麼我們說它不會完全相關。但從方向上看，如果您看到股市疲軟，我們預計強度水平至少會有所放緩。儘管很少見，但我們在極端破壞時期看到了另類投資組合的負回報，就像我們在 2020 年第一季度或第二季度 COVID 爆發時所做的那樣。

But over a pretty short period of time when the markets came back, we got all that back and then some. So we're not really in a position to give a forecast of whether we expect alternative NII to be less robust than it has or how low it might go. But again, we're doing this for the long term. And if you look at our results over a long term, even in really significant downturn for the broader markets, we've done probably better than most.

但是在很短的時間內，當市場回升時，我們得到了所有的回報，然後又得到了一些。因此，我們真的無法預測我們是否預計替代 NII 會不如它所擁有的那麼強大，或者它可能會走多低。但同樣，我們這樣做是長期的。如果你從長遠來看我們的業績，即使在大盤真正嚴重低迷的情況下，我們也可能比大多數人做得更好。

Your next question comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, I'm looking to get color on the BI margin. You guys called out higher earned pricing. You also called out elevated property losses. Could I get the impact of both of those on the current quarter?

我的第一個問題是，我希望在 BI 邊距上獲得顏色。你們呼籲更高的收入定價。你還提到了財產損失增加。我能得到這兩個對當前季度的影響嗎？

Yes. Elyse, it's Dan. So directionally, without going down to a very fine level of reconciliation, we've been talking about in recent quarters, the benefit of earned pricing being somewhere around 1 point. That's not going to change all that quickly. As written premium -- as written price over the last few quarters came down, you'd expect the earned basis to come down, but that takes time to come down.

是的。愛麗絲，是丹。因此，在沒有達到非常精細的和解水平的情況下，我們在最近幾個季度一直在談論定向，賺取定價的好處大約在 1 個點左右。這不會很快改變一切。由於書面溢價 - 隨著過去幾個季度的書面價格下降，您預計賺取的基礎會下降，但這需要時間才能下降。

So that's still sort of the ballpark. And with the margins relatively stable from a year ago, that would sort of imply that the property piece going the other way relative to what we expected was about 1 point.

所以這仍然是一個球場。與一年前相比，利潤率相對穩定，這在某種程度上意味著房地產板塊與我們預期的相反，約為 1 個百分點。

Okay. And then my second question. You guys had talked about higher inflation on last quarter's call and said that inflation within Business Insurance was probably in the range of 5.5% to 6%. Did you guys see any movements in your loss trend assumptions in the second quarter?

好的。然後我的第二個問題。你們在上個季度的電話會議上談到了更高的通脹，並說商業保險的通脹可能在 5.5% 到 6% 的範圍內。你們看到第二季度的虧損趨勢假設有什麼變化嗎？

No, Elyse, we didn't. We -- I'll say 2 things. One, the loss activity you saw in the quarter was generally consistent with that. But two, loss trend is something we evaluate over a long period of time. So not typically -- doesn't typically gyrate around in a particular quarter. But I think to be responsive to your question, the loss activity we saw was consistent with what we expected.

不，愛麗絲，我們沒有。我們——我會說兩件事。一，您在本季度看到的損失活動與此基本一致。但是第二，損失趨勢是我們長期評估的。所以通常不會 - 通常不會在特定季度左右旋轉。但我認為為了回應您的問題，我們看到的損失活動與我們的預期一致。

Your next question comes from Ryan Tunis from Autonomous.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Ryan Tunis。

Just in BI, how should we interpret the acceleration of written rate from 43 to 49?

就在 BI 中，我們應該如何解釋書面率從 43 到 49 的加速？

Ryan, it's Greg. Yes, I'll give you a little bit of color from the prior quarter. It was broadly based across many lines led by auto, property and our primary GL lines. And our underwriters look at every account that come up for the renewal in that quarter. And they're focused on making sure that they've got the right price to risk, terms and conditions just to get the right rate adequacy.

瑞恩，是格雷格。是的，我會給你一些上一季度的顏色。它廣泛基於以汽車、房地產和我們的主要 GL 線為主導的許多線。我們的承銷商會查看該季度為續訂提出的每個帳戶。他們專注於確保他們有正確的風險價格、條款和條件，只是為了獲得正確的利率充足性。

So in terms of -- on one hand, we feel great about that increase in pricing and returns are in a much better place based on the industry and our pricing over the past few years. But those headwinds that we've talked about, inflation and weather, et cetera, are still out there. So it's a headline number at an aggregate level. Our underwriters are going to continue to be focused on making sure that the accounts that come up renewal have the rate adequacy on it. And that -- hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color for the quarter.

因此，就 - 一方面，我們對定價和回報的增長感到非常滿意，基於過去幾年的行業和我們的定價，我們處於一個更好的位置。但是我們談到的那些不利因素，通貨膨脹和天氣等等，仍然存在。所以這是一個總體水平的標題數字。我們的承銷商將繼續專注於確保更新的賬戶具有足夠的利率。那 - 希望這能給你本季度的一點色彩。

And then for Michael, just curious from a frequency perspective, what are you observing, I guess? It's the summer, gas prices are lower. There's been some discussion of that impacting frequency trends. But just curious sort of like how are you thinking about frequency? What are you seeing right now?

然後對於邁克爾，只是從頻率的角度好奇，我猜你在觀察什麼？現在是夏天，汽油價格較低。有一些關於影響頻率趨勢的討論。但只是好奇有點像你如何看待頻率？你現在看到了什麼？

Sure, Ryan. Thanks for the question. I would say two things. One, specific to your question on gas prices, and I think we talked about this a little bit last quarter, we don't see huge sensitivity in our miles driven data to gas prices. We actually think employment has a bigger impact on miles driven than gas prices do. So really, the impact of the price upswing we saw 2, 3 months ago and the slight relief we've seen over the last month or so isn't really driving change in driving behavior based on the data we're observing.

當然，瑞恩。謝謝你的問題。我想說兩件事。一，具體到你關於汽油價格的問題，我認為我們在上個季度談到了這個問題，我們沒有看到我們的里程驅動數據對汽油價格有很大的敏感性。實際上，我們認為就業對行駛里程的影響比汽油價格更大。所以說真的，我們在 2、3 個月前看到的價格上漲的影響以及我們在過去一個月左右看到的輕微緩解並沒有真正推動基於我們觀察到的數據的駕駛行為的變化。

And then in terms of frequency, again, I think two comments are important about this quarter. One, second quarter of last year still showed favorable frequency because driving levels were still depressed. And so they'll return towards pre-pandemic normal is a bad guide quarter -- or year-over-year. But in terms of driving behavior and claim frequency, we would say it remains in that space of approaching pre-pandemic normal levels.

然後就頻率而言，我認為本季度有兩條重要的評論。一、去年第二季度仍顯示出良好的頻率，因為駕駛水平仍然低迷。因此，他們將恢復到大流行前的正常水平，這是一個糟糕的指導季度——或同比。但就駕駛行為和索賠頻率而言，我們認為它仍處於接近大流行前正常水平的空間內。

Your next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

I guess first question overall. I was hoping you could take us through how you're thinking about medical inflation potentially lagging the really high overall inflation that we've seen broadly and how that impacts loss trend selection?

我想總體上是第一個問題。我希望你能帶我們了解你如何看待醫療通脹可能落後於我們廣泛看到的真正高的總體通脹，以及這如何影響損失趨勢選擇？

Yes. Meyer, a couple of comments on medical inflation. So given that it impacts long-term lines like workers' comp and GL, you can imagine when we watch it very closely. And two, as we've shared before, we take a very cautious approach to reserving those long-term lines.

是的。邁耶，關於醫療通脹的一些評論。因此，鑑於它會影響工人薪酬和 GL 等長期生產線，當我們密切關注它時，你可以想像。第二，正如我們之前分享的那樣，我們採取非常謹慎的方式來保留這些長期線路。

Having said that, while medical inflation certainly isn't immune from the broader inflationary environment, the recent trends on the whole continue to be, I'd say, relatively benign. The other thing is you got to make a distinction between medical inflation and the types of inflation that impact loss costs. So workers' comp and GL, for example, are driven by a subset of medical costs.

話雖如此，雖然醫療通脹當然不能免受更廣泛的通脹環境的影響，但我想說，最近的總體趨勢仍然相對溫和。另一件事是你必須區分醫療通脹和影響損失成本的通脹類型。因此，例如，工人薪酬和 GL 是由醫療費用的一個子集驅動的。

We're treating workplace injuries. We're treating accidents. We're not treating chronic diseases. And those components of medical inflation that impact workers' cost -- workers' comp and GL are increasing at lower than the headline medical CPI. Also in terms of workers' comp, for example, we've got fee schedules and other medical management practices that mitigate the types of inflation that could impact those loss costs. So there's a little bit of a narrative on medical inflation. Hopefully, that's responsible.

我們正在治療工傷。我們正在處理事故。我們不是在治療慢性病。而那些影響工人成本的醫療通脹因素——工人薪酬和總收入的增長速度低於整體醫療 CPI。例如，在工人補償方面，我們制定了收費表和其他醫療管理實踐，以減輕可能影響這些損失成本的通貨膨脹類型。所以有一點關於醫療通脹的敘述。希望這是負責任的。

No, that is very helpful. And then a quick question for Michael. Within -- specifically on the home side, other than actual rate changes, how do average premiums per policy respond to rising replacement costs?

不，這很有幫助。然後是邁克爾的一個快速問題。在內部——特別是在家庭方面，除了實際利率變化之外，每份保單的平均保費如何應對不斷上升的重置成本？

Yes, Meyer. So in the home, really, RPC is a combination, right, of operate and those insured values. And so in terms of how they respond, that renewal premium change number that we share with you is a blend of the rate change we're getting on renewals and the impact of increased value.

是的，邁耶。因此，在家庭中，RPC 確實是操作和那些保險價值的組合。因此，就他們的反應而言，我們與您分享的續訂保費變化數字是我們在續訂時獲得的費率變化和增值影響的混合體。

And I guess just one step deeper into the process. We evaluate replacement cost data on a regular basis and typically update our annual inflation -- our annual increased limit factors, what we call AIL on an annual basis. In this environment, we're actually looking at it more frequently and have actually updated it a second time this year, which is part of why you're seeing that RPC in home continue to rise. And that's why I mentioned in my prepared remarks that the increase in RPC in home is a combination of increased rate and increased limit.

我想這只是更深入的一步。我們會定期評估重置成本數據，通常會更新我們的年度通貨膨脹率——我們每年增加的限制因素，我們稱之為 AIL 每年。在這種環境下，我們實際上更頻繁地查看它，並且今年實際上已經對其進行了第二次更新，這就是您看到家庭 RPC 繼續上升的部分原因。這就是為什麼我在準備好的評論中提到家庭RPC的增加是增加速率和增加限制的組合。

Okay. So that sounds like it's broadly margin neutral, if I'm understanding it correctly.

好的。因此，如果我理解正確的話，這聽起來大致上是中性的。

What I would say is both the rate and the increased limit are responsive to the inflation that we're seeing.

我要說的是利率和增加的限制都是對我們所看到的通貨膨脹的反應。

Your next question comes from Brian Meredith from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

Just first, one quick clarification. Dan, on the business insurance kind of non-cat weather losses in the quarter, you kind of said about 1 point better than last quarter. I think last second quarter, you said it was 150 basis points below trend. Would that imply that this quarter was maybe 50 basis points below typical second quarter?

首先，快速澄清一下。丹，關於本季度的商業保險類非貓天氣損失，您說比上一季度好 1 個百分點。我認為上個第二季度，你說它比趨勢低 150 個基點。這是否意味著本季度可能比典型的第二季度低 50 個基點？

No. Brian, if we think about the non-cat property losses that are in underlying last year, we said the -- as you pointed out, last year we said they're about 1.5 points better than what we would have expected in the second quarter. This year, what we actually said that it's about 1 point worse than what we would have expected.

不，布賴恩，如果我們考慮到去年潛在的非貓財產損失，我們說 - 正如你所指出的，去年我們說它們比我們在第二季度。今年，我們實際上說的比我們預期的差了大約 1 個百分點。

So there was actually a bigger swing in the underlying property losses, I think, north of 2 points. And then there's -- as there are frequently in other quarters, a number of other things, none of which were individually big, think mix, think segmentation that actually benefited the loss ratio in the quarter. And that got us back down to the neutral number.

因此，我認為基礎財產損失實際上有更大的波動，超過了 2 個百分點。然後是 - 正如其他季度經常發生的那樣，還有許多其他事情，其中沒有一個是單獨的大，認為混合，認為細分實際上有利於該季度的損失率。這讓我們回到了中性數字。

Got you. That makes sense. And then just one other just quick one. Workers' compensated insurance continue to see a nice improvement in premium growth there. Is that all just exposure growth that you're seeing at this point?

得到你。那講得通。然後只是另一個只是快速的一個。那裡的工傷補償保險保費增長繼續有很好的改善。這只是你現在看到的曝光增長嗎？

Brian, it's Greg. Yes. For the most part, that is absolutely some of the strong exposure growth. You can certainly relate to the increases in payrolls across the economy. So that's one of the key drivers of that in that line.

布賴恩，是格雷格。是的。在大多數情況下，這絕對是強勁的曝光增長的一部分。你當然可以與整個經濟體的工資增長有關。所以這是該行的關鍵驅動因素之一。

Your next question comes from Josh Shanker from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

I was looking at the 10-K, and you guys have duly warned us about the variable investment income in the back half of 2022. Obviously, the markets were not so strong in the first quarter this year. I would have thought that the 2Q results would have been weaker. And when I look at you saying, hey, the back half of the year be careful, is there more than a 3-month lag when we think about these things? Do we have any reason to think that 4Q should be particularly weak at this point in time?

我在看 10-K，你們已經適時警告我們 2022 年下半年的可變投資收益。顯然，今年第一季度市場並不那麼強勁。我原以為第二季度的結果會更弱。而且我看你說，哎，後半年小心點，我們想想這些事情有沒有超過3個月的滯後？我們有什麼理由認為 4Q 在這個時間點應該特別弱？

No, Josh, it's Dan. I don't think there's any change to our sort of historical commentary. We say generally, things are on about a 1-quarter lag. Second quarter was pretty strong from an alternative, if you consider it in the context of the broader market. But again, we're not necessarily going to follow that in lockstep. We've got individual investments within the quarter.

不，喬希，是丹。我認為我們的歷史評論沒有任何變化。我們一般說，事情大約滯後 1 個季度。如果您在大盤的背景下考慮，第二季度的表現相當強勁。但同樣，我們不一定要步調一致。我們在本季度進行了個人投資。

Real estate did pretty well. We had some energy holdings that did pretty well. We had some transportation holdings that did pretty well. So it's going to be a function of what's actually inside of our portfolio. And that's really what you're seeing as opposed to any change in the live pattern.

房地產做得很好。我們有一些表現不錯的能源股。我們有一些運輸控股公司做得很好。因此，它將成為我們投資組合中實際內容的函數。這就是你所看到的，而不是現場模式的任何變化。

All right. And then the renewal premium change is obviously a lagging indicator of what you're doing on rates. When you look at the -- I guess for Michael. When you look at the auto book or maybe even auto and the home book and you know what kind of rates you were getting, when do you hope that you are getting rates in excess or at least matching the loss trend? And I guess when do you think that a renewal rate trend will sort of be matching that on the net premium earned line?

好的。然後續訂保費變化顯然是您在費率上所做的滯後指標。當你看 - 我猜是邁克爾。當您查看汽車賬簿或什至汽車和家庭賬簿時，您知道自己獲得了什麼樣的費率，您希望什麼時候獲得的費率超出或至少與損失趨勢相匹配？我猜你認為續訂率趨勢何時會與淨保費收入線上的趨勢相匹配？

Yes. Great question, Josh, and a really hard one to answer in this environment. I mean I think -- there's one conversation we could have around what those numbers are relative to a relatively long-term view of trend. Unfortunately, the environment that we're in and -- you can pick your statistic. I mean it's really a pretty unprecedented environment in terms of loss cost inflation in the personal lines of business. You can look at body work CPI, I think, is the highest it's been since 1980 in low double digits. You can look at shingles prices, lumber prices. The Manheim Used Vehicle Index right, was up 30-plus percent last year and it stayed there.

是的。好問題，喬希，在這種環境下很難回答。我的意思是我認為 - 我們可以圍繞這些數字相對於相對長期的趨勢觀點進行一次對話。不幸的是，我們所處的環境——你可以選擇你的統計數據。我的意思是，就個人業務的損失成本膨脹而言，這確實是一個前所未有的環境。你可以看看車身工作 CPI，我認為，它是自 1980 年以來的最高兩位數。你可以看看帶狀皰疹的價格，木材的價格。曼海姆二手車指數去年上漲了 30% 以上，並且一直保持在那裡。

So it's really hard to put a point on when the rate will exceed loss trend until we fully understand how long this elevated inflation is going to last. And so from that standpoint, that's why our focus really isn't on picking that point. Our focus is on continuing to incorporate the latest data into our pricing and underwriting processes, and continuing to raise rate as we see that evidence of further need.

因此，在我們完全了解這種高通脹將持續多長時間之前，很難確定利率何時會超過損失趨勢。所以從這個角度來看，這就是為什麼我們的重點真的不是選擇那個點。我們的重點是繼續將最新數據納入我們的定價和承保流程，並在我們看到進一步需要的證據時繼續提高利率。

To your point, and it's a good one, the 6.3 RPC as an example that we reported in auto is the written impact of the rate we've taken essentially over the last 3 or 4 quarters as it hits renewals. And so one important point to make is even if we didn't file for any additional rate, which we are, that number would rise next quarter because we haven't yet seen the full written impact of the rate that we've already gotten filed and approved.

就您的觀點而言，這是一個很好的例子，我們在汽車中報告的 6.3 RPC 是我們在過去 3 或 4 個季度中基本上在續訂時採取的費率的書面影響。因此，要說明的一個重要點是，即使我們沒有申請任何額外的利率，我們現在這個數字也會在下個季度上升，因為我們還沒有看到我們已經獲得的利率的完整書面影響提交並批准。

But again, importantly we've gotten -- that rate already in the pipeline that will drive that number higher. And we are continuing to seek additional increases, which will continue to drive that number higher and, again, drive it into the double digits by the fourth quarter of this year, speaking specifically to auto.

但同樣重要的是，我們已經得到了——這個速度已經在醞釀之中，這將推動這個數字更高。我們正在繼續尋求額外的增長，這將繼續推動這一數字更高，並在今年第四季度再次將其推高至兩位數，特別是汽車行業。

Your next question comes from Tracy Benguigui from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Tracy Benguigui。

I'm just trying to reconcile your deteriorating underlying loss ratios in both BI and PI on a sequential basis in your premium growth achievement. I mean, is the idea that you're happy with your risk-adjusted returns, so you don't feel like you need to withdraw underwriting capacity just yet? I guess I'm just trying to figure out if you're trying to be more discerning where you're growing from here, even if it's just pockets of your business.

我只是想在您的保費增長成就中按順序調整您在 BI 和 PI 中不斷惡化的潛在損失率。我的意思是，您是否對風險調整後的回報感到滿意，因此您認為您還不需要撤銷承保能力？我想我只是想弄清楚你是否想更加辨別你從這裡成長的地方，即使這只是你業務的一部分。

So Tracy, it's Dan. I'll start. And I think we've done this before. But again, I think there's a reason that we don't look at combined ratio on a sequential basis. And part of that is what you see in the second quarter in particular because whether it's cat losses or underlying property, we expect more activity in the second quarter than the rest of the quarters of the year.

所以特蕾西，是丹。我會開始的。我認為我們之前已經這樣做了。但同樣，我認為我們不按順序查看綜合比率是有原因的。其中一部分就是您在第二季度看到的情況，特別是因為無論是巨災損失還是基礎財產，我們預計第二季度的活動將比今年其他季度更多。

To go back to the comments that Alan was making and that Greg made, if we look at where the underlying combined ratios are and the returns are coming out of 2021, in which we had north of a 13.5% core ROE in the first half of the year this year, that's 12.4% through the first 6 months of the year. We feel like the business as a whole is in a pretty good place. We've got a balanced portfolio. Some parts of the portfolio are going to be stronger than others at certain times. But we're managing the business for the long term. And we're not thinking about withdrawing capacity at this point. We've got plenty of capital. And we think there's plenty of good business in the marketplace to write that's going to serve us well in the long term.

回到 Alan 和 Greg 的評論，如果我們看看 2021 年的基本綜合比率和回報率，我們在上半年的核心 ROE 超過 13.5%今年前 6 個月的增長率為 12.4%。我們覺得整個業務都處於一個相當不錯的位置。我們有一個平衡的投資組合。在某些時候，投資組合的某些部分會比其他部分更強大。但我們正在長期管理業務。而且我們目前還沒有考慮撤回產能。我們有充足的資金。而且我們認為市場上有很多好的業務可以編寫，從長遠來看，這將為我們提供良好的服務。

Okay. Could you maybe unpack your favorable prior development in specifically within CMP? Was that liability or nonliability? And the reason I'm asking is because you experienced unfavorable development in GL. And I noticed the releases from CMP came from recent accident years, which would make more sense for short tail lines.

好的。您能否在 CMP 中展開您先前的有利發展？那是責任還是不責任？我問的原因是因為你在 GL 經歷了不利的發展。我注意到 CMP 發布的版本來自最近的事故年份，這對於短尾線更有意義。

Yes. It's not a big number, Tracy. I'm just not going to break it down any further than that.

是的。這不是一個大數字，特蕾西。我只是不打算進一步分解它。

Your next question comes from David Motemaden from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。

Just a question for Michael on personal auto. Could you talk a little bit about how you're handling closing claims quickly and just claims resolutions? I would think that your book has more preferred business and newer cars that are more complex to repair, which -- it sounds like you guys feel like you're on top of that potential issue. But maybe you could just talk about how you're approaching closing claims in a timely fashion on the auto book?

只是邁克爾關於個人汽車的問題。您能否談談您如何快速處理結案索賠並僅處理索賠解決方案？我認為你的書有更多的首選業務和更新的汽車，維修起來更複雜，這聽起來像是你們覺得自己已經掌握了這個潛在問題。但也許你可以談談你是如何在汽車賬簿上及時結束索賠的？

Sure, David. So I would say yes, we're on top of it. Our claim team is top-notch. They're terrifically talented and capable. And we've got great discipline and process inside the claims organization. They're really just terrific partners in support of the business.

當然，大衛。所以我會說是的，我們處於領先地位。我們的理賠團隊是一流的。他們非常有才華和能力。我們在理賠組織內部有很好的紀律和流程。他們真的只是支持業務的了不起的合作夥伴。

That said, we're not immune from the environmental pressures that you read about and you've seen and heard others talk about. So while we are on top of things and while the way you described our portfolio makes sense, it is taking longer to get parts. It is taking longer to get a time slot in a body shop. That is putting pressure on the length of time it takes to make repair. That is putting pressure on average rental days for nondrivable repairs.

也就是說，我們不能免受您所讀到的環境壓力以及您看到和聽到其他人談論的環境壓力。因此，儘管我們處於領先地位，並且您描述我們的產品組合的方式是有道理的，但獲得零件需要更長的時間。在車身修理廠獲得時間段需要更長的時間。這對修復所需的時間造成了壓力。這給不可駕駛維修的平均租賃天數帶來了壓力。

We're doing a lot in really all we can to work with customers to help manage that. One example is being in dialogue with the customer and ensuring, for example, that if their vehicle is drivable, that they wait to take until the shop until we and they have verified the parts of the labor are available. So doing a lot of things to try to manage that. But the length of time to repair on average is extending.

我們正在盡我們所能與客戶合作以幫助管理這一點。一個例子是與客戶進行對話，並確保，例如，如果他們的車輛是可駕駛的，他們會等到商店等到我們和他們確認部分勞動力可用。所以做了很多事情來嘗試管理它。但平均修復時間正在延長。

And it's really -- that's one element of the process. Salvage and subrogation takes longer these days for total vehicle availability remains a challenge. I mean those -- we're faced with all those challenges. But I think our claim organization is doing a terrific job of managing and navigating those.

這真的是——這是流程的一個要素。如今，由於車輛的總可用性，打撈和代位求償需要更長的時間，這仍然是一個挑戰。我的意思是那些——我們面臨著所有這些挑戰。但我認為我們的索賠組織在管理和導航這些方面做得非常出色。

Got it. And then just a question for Dan. I think you had mentioned that the expense ratio getting down to 29% for the full year, a little bit ahead of schedule. Should we be thinking about a lower expense ratio than 29% as we think about '23 or '24? Or are we -- do you feel like 29% is a good level to operate at going forward?

知道了。然後只是對丹的一個問題。我想你提到了全年費用率下降到 29%，比計劃提前了一點。在考慮 23 年或 24 年時，我們是否應該考慮低於 29% 的費用率？或者我們——你覺得 29% 是一個很好的水平嗎？

Yes, David, we're not going to give '23 or '24 outlook here. I'd just say a couple of years ago, we were talking about being pretty comfortable with the 30. And then a quarter or 2 ago, we were talking about being more comfortable with the 29.5. We're not really setting a target expense ratio. We're managing the business as a whole to overall combined ratio and returns. We're making all the investments that we want to make. What we find is that we've been able to do that inside the still improving expense ratio. I think last quarter, we said we might get down to 29 sometime in the next year or 2 -- another quarter of success. It looks like we'll probably be there this year. I'm not really inclined to give an outlook beyond that.

是的，大衛，我們不會在這裡給出'23 或'24 的前景。我只想說幾年前，我們談論的是對 30 感到非常舒服。然後一兩個季度前，我們談論的是對 29.5 更舒服。我們並沒有真正設定目標費用比率。我們將業務作為一個整體與整體綜合比率和回報進行管理。我們正在做我們想做的所有投資。我們發現，我們已經能夠在仍在提高的費用比率內做到這一點。我想上個季度，我們說我們可能會在明年或 2 年的某個時候降到 29 個——另一個季度的成功。看來我們今年可能會在那裡。我並不真的傾向於給出超出此範圍的展望。

And we have time for just one more question coming from Yaron Kinar from Jefferies.

我們有時間再回答 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 提出的一個問題。

I guess first question for Michael around the loss trends in personal auto. I heard you talk a lot about physical damage. Are you also seeing a bodily injury component there? Because it's something that we've certainly heard from a lot of the other auto insurers as of late. So maybe you could quantify or qualify that?

我想邁克爾的第一個問題是關於個人汽車的損失趨勢。我聽說你經常談論物理傷害。您是否還在那裡看到了身體傷害成分？因為這是我們最近從許多其他汽車保險公司那裡聽到的。所以也許你可以量化或限定它？

Yes. Yaron, thanks for the question, and I'll qualify it probably and not quantify it. But similar to the comment I made last quarter, we haven't spiked out bodily injury loss trend as a driver in the sort of year-over-year comparisons and relative to expectation. Not because it hasn't been elevated and not because we haven't seen elevated bodily injury loss trend. But -- and in particular, we've seen elevated inflation in bodily injury. There's been a little bit of favorability in bodily injury frequency, offsetting some of that severity. And we had a pretty healthy assumption around what the bodily injury loss trend was going to be. And so it just hasn't jumped out as a delta relative to our expectation. But that doesn't mean we don't see pressure. It doesn't mean we're not observing it. It just means it's not a significant difference from what we had anticipated.

是的。 Yaron，謝謝你的問題，我可能會限定它而不是量化它。但與我上個季度發表的評論類似，在同比和相對於預期的比較中，我們並沒有飆升作為車手的身體傷害損失趨勢。不是因為它沒有升高，也不是因為我們沒有看到身體傷害損失趨勢升高。但是 - 特別是，我們已經看到身體傷害的通貨膨脹加劇。身體受傷頻率有一點好處，抵消了一些嚴重程度。我們對身體傷害損失的趨勢有一個非常健康的假設。因此，相對於我們的預期，它並沒有像增量一樣跳出來。但這並不意味著我們看不到壓力。這並不意味著我們沒有觀察它。這只是意味著它與我們的預期沒有顯著差異。

Got it. And then -- and this is probably a broader question maybe for Greg or for Alan. You guys are essentially the insurer of the U.S. economy, if you will. And with all this talk about a potential recession, fears of recession, is there any indicator that you're seeing in your conversations with clients today that would lead you to see that actually materializing? And if so, are there specific sectors or industries that you're seeing maybe pressure emerging in?

知道了。然後——這對於 Greg 或 Alan 來說可能是一個更廣泛的問題。你們基本上是美國經濟的保險人，如果你願意的話。在所有這些關於潛在衰退的討論中，對衰退的恐懼，你今天在與客戶的談話中是否有任何跡象可以讓你看到它真正成為現實？如果是這樣，您是否看到某些特定的行業或行業可能會出現壓力？

Yaron, I'd say not yet. The business underlying fundamentals we're seeing from our customers are strong. I think the economic -- the macroeconomic data you see confirms that as the time continues to increase interest rates in an effort to bring down demand, I think we're all reading those tea leaves and imagining it's coming. But we're not seeing it in our data, not any significant degree.

亞龍，我想說還沒有。我們從客戶那裡看到的業務基礎是強大的。我認為經濟 - 你看到的宏觀經濟數據證實，隨著時間繼續提高利率以降低需求，我認為我們都在閱讀這些茶葉並想像它即將到來。但是我們沒有在我們的數據中看到它，沒有任何顯著程度。

I will turn the call back over to Abbe for closing remarks.

我會將電話轉回給 Abbe 以進行結束髮言。

Thank you very much. We appreciate everyone joining us today. And as always, if you have any follow-up, please feel free to reach out directly to Investor Relations. Thanks.

非常感謝。我們感謝今天加入我們的每一個人。與往常一樣，如果您有任何後續行動，請隨時直接與投資者關係部聯繫。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。