旅行家集團 (TRV) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the third quarter results teleconference for Travelers. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on October 19, 2022. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎來到 Travelers 的第三季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2022 年 10 月 19 日錄製。此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Abbe Goldstein 女士。戈德斯坦女士，你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our Third Quarter 2022 Results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section. Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our 3 segment Presidents: Greg Toczydlowski of Business Insurance, Jeff Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance.

謝謝你。早上好，歡迎來到旅行者對我們 2022 年第三季度業績的討論。我們今天早上早些時候發布了我們的新聞稿、財務補充和網絡廣播演示。所有這些材料都可以在我們的網站 travels.com 的“投資者”部分找到。今天發言的將是董事長兼首席執行官 Alan Schnitzer；丹弗雷，首席財務官；以及我們的 3 個部門總裁：商業保險的 Greg Toczydlowski、債券和專業保險的 Jeff Klenk 和個人保險的 Michael Klein。

They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then we will take your questions.

他們將討論我們業務的財務業績和當前的市場環境。他們將在閱讀準備好的評論時參考網絡廣播演示文稿，然後我們將回答您的問題。

Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors are described under forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.

在我將電話轉給 Alan 之前，我想提請您注意網絡廣播演示結束時包含的解釋性說明。我們今天的演講包括前瞻性陳述。公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，不能保證未來業績。由於多種因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。這些因素在我們的收益新聞稿和我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-Q 和 10-K 的前瞻性陳述中進行了描述。我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in the Investors section on our website. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

同樣在我們的評論或對問題的回答中，我們可能會提到一些非公認會計原則的財務措施。我們最近的收益新聞稿、財務補充和我們網站“投資者”部分提供的其他材料中包含了對賬。現在我想把電話轉給 Alan Schnitzer。

Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'd like to start by acknowledging the devastation and loss of life caused by Hurricanes Ian and Fiona. We're thinking of all those who have been impacted and are supporting the Red Cross' disaster relief efforts.

謝謝你，阿貝。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。我想首先承認颶風伊恩和菲奧娜造成的破壞和生命損失。我們正在考慮所有受到影響並支持紅十字會救災工作的人。

In addition, as always, after events like these, we're focused on taking care of our customers. We're on track to meet our objective of resolving 90% of our property claims arising out of the storms within 30 days. My thanks to all our claim colleagues who are working hard to make that happen. Moving to our results. We're pleased to report this morning a solid bottom line for the quarter, particularly in light of the significant industry-wide catastrophe losses, strong and improved underwriting profitability in our commercial business segments, progress addressing the environmental headwinds facing the personal insurance industry. A meaningful contribution from net investment income, including positive returns from our alternative investment portfolio, notwithstanding the challenging equity market. Very strong production in all 3 of our business segments, resulting in strong growth in net written premiums and another quarter of successful execution on a number of important strategic initiatives.

此外，與往常一樣，在此類事件之後，我們專注於照顧我們的客戶。我們有望在 30 天內解決由風暴引起的 90% 的財產索賠的目標。感謝我們所有為實現這一目標而努力工作的索賠同事。轉向我們的結果。我們很高興今天早上報告本季度的穩健底線，特別是考慮到全行業的重大災難損失，我們商業業務部門的強勁和改善的承保盈利能力，以及解決個人保險業面臨的環境逆風的進展。儘管股票市場充滿挑戰，但淨投資收入帶來了有意義的貢獻，包括我們的另類投資組合的正回報。我們所有三個業務部門的生產都非常強勁，導致淨承保保費強勁增長，並成功執行了一系列重要的戰略舉措。

Core income for the quarter was $526 million or $2.20 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 7.9%. These results benefited from record net earned premiums of $8.6 billion, up 10% over the prior year quarter and a solid underlying combined ratio of 92.5%. The 9 months core return on equity was 10.9%. Given the challenging environmental issues impacting the personal insurance industry, these consolidated results once again demonstrate the benefit of our diversified portfolio of businesses.

本季度的核心收入為 5.26 億美元或每股攤薄收益 2.20 美元，核心股本回報率為 7.9%。這些業績得益於創紀錄的 86 億美元淨收入保費，比去年同期增長 10%，以及 92.5% 的穩健基礎綜合成本率。 9 個月的核心股本回報率為 10.9%。鑑於影響人身保險行業的挑戰性環境問題，這些綜合結果再次證明了我們多元化業務組合的好處。

We're particularly pleased with the continued strong underlying results in our commercial businesses. Looking at the 2 commercial segments together, the aggregate BI BSI underlying combined ratio was an excellent 88% for the quarter. As expected, results in Personal Insurance were impacted by elevated severity in both auto and home.

我們對我們的商業業務持續強勁的潛在業績感到特別高興。綜觀這兩個商業領域，本季度的 BI BSI 基礎綜合比率總計高達 88%。正如預期的那樣，個人保險的結果受到汽車和家庭嚴重程度升高的影響。

As you'll hear from Michael, we're continuing to make progress addressing the environmental loss cost issues. In terms of the catastrophe losses, as I've described before, strategic efforts we have undertaken in recent years have enabled us to more effectively manage our exposure to catastrophes and more efficiently mobilize our claim response.

正如您從邁克爾那裡聽到的那樣，我們正在繼續在解決環境損失成本問題方面取得進展。就巨災損失而言，正如我之前所描述的，我們近年來採取的戰略努力使我們能夠更有效地管理我們面臨的巨災風險，並更有效地調動我們的索賠響應。

And while there is always the potential for us to have outsized exposure to an event, those efforts contributed to losses for us from Hurricane Ian, that based on current estimates, are favorable relative to our corresponding market share. That's consistent with our experience over the past 5 years. Our share of the industry's Property cat losses over that period has been meaningfully lower than our corresponding market share. Our capabilities position us well for a trend of increasing frequency and severity of losses from natural catastrophes.

雖然我們總是有可能在事件中獲得超大風險，但這些努力導致我們在伊恩颶風中蒙受損失，根據目前的估計，相對於我們相應的市場份額而言，這是有利的。這與我們過去 5 年的經驗一致。在此期間，我們在該行業的財產巨災損失中所佔的份額明顯低於我們相應的市場份額。我們的能力使我們能夠很好地應對自然災害造成的損失頻率和嚴重程度不斷增加的趨勢。

Turning to investments. Our high-quality investment portfolio generated net investment income of $505 million after tax for the quarter, reflecting higher returns from our fixed income portfolio and positive returns in our nonfixed income portfolio. Our strong operating results over the past few quarters, together with our solid balance sheet, enabled us to grow adjusted book value per share by 7% over the past year, after making important investments in our business in continuing to return excess capital to shareholders.

轉向投資。我們的高質量投資組合在本季度產生了 5.05 億美元的稅後淨投資收益，這反映了我們的固定收益投資組合的更高回報和我們的非固定收益投資組合的正回報。我們過去幾個季度強勁的經營業績，加上穩健的資產負債表，使我們在過去一年對我們的業務進行了重要投資以繼續向股東返還多餘資本後，調整後的每股賬面價值增長了 7%。

During the quarter, we returned $722 million of excess capital to our shareholders, including $501 million of share repurchases. Turning to the top line, thanks to excellent execution by our colleagues in the field and the strong franchise value we offer to our customers and distribution partners. We grew net written premiums by 10% this quarter to a record $9.2 billion.

本季度，我們向股東返還了 7.22 億美元的超額資本，其中包括 5.01 億美元的股票回購。談到收入，這要歸功於我們在該領域的同事的出色執行以及我們為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供的強大特許經營價值。我們本季度的淨承保保費增長了 10%，達到創紀錄的 92 億美元。

In Business Insurance, net written premiums grew by 9%. Renewal premium change was very strong at a historically high 10.2% and while pure renewal rate change of 5% was higher than in the first half of the year. Retention remained very strong at 86% and new business increased 9% from the prior year period.

在商業保險方面，淨承保保費增長了 9%。續保費變化非常強勁，達到歷史最高的 10.2%，而 5% 的純續保費率變化高於上半年。保留率仍然非常強勁，達到 86%，新業務比去年同期增長 9%。

Underneath the headline numbers, execution in terms of rate and retention at a segmented level, continue to be exceptional. In Bond & Specialty Insurance, net written premiums increased by 8% and driven by excellent production in both our surety and management liability businesses. Surety net written premiums were up 18%. Management liability premiums were up 4%, driven by renewal premium change of 9%, retention that increased to 89% and 20% growth in new business.

在標題數字之下，細分級別的執行率和留存率仍然非常出色。在債券和特殊保險方面，淨承保保費增長 8%，這得益於我們的擔保和管理責任業務的出色表現。保證淨承保保費上漲 18%。管理責任保費增長 4%，主要受續保保費變化 9%、保留率提高至 89% 和新業務增長 20% 的推動。

In Personal Insurance, renewal premium change was meaningfully higher, both year-over-year and sequentially and as we continue to address the environmental headwinds. You'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results. Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'd like to comment on a public policy issue.

在個人保險方面，續保費的變化明顯更高，無論是同比還是環比，以及我們繼續應對環境不利因素。您將很快從 Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 那裡聽到更多關於我們細分市場結果的信息。在我將電話轉給 Dan 之前，我想對一個公共政策問題發表評論。

Hurricane Ian puts a spotlight on the troubled condition of the Florida insurance market. Other states may be headed for similar challenges. As policymakers consider how best to address the availability and affordability of insurance, we would urge them to consider the impacts of the unhealthy tort environment, fraud and abuse by a few that impact too many and regulatory practices that undermine free market principles. I believe those factors are at least as consequential as the weather itself to the industry's ability to provide our communities with effective and efficient ways to manage risk.

颶風伊恩將焦點放在佛羅里達保險市場的困境中。其他州可能會面臨類似的挑戰。在政策制定者考慮如何最好地解決保險的可得性和可負擔性問題時，我們敦促他們考慮不健康的侵權環境、少數人的欺詐和濫用行為的影響，以及破壞自由市場原則的監管做法。我相信這些因素至少與天氣本身對行業為我們的社區提供有效和高效的風險管理方法的能力一樣重要。

We're looking forward to being a participant in constructive conversations about solutions in the days ahead. To sum things up, building on our strong results so far this year, we're confident about our outlook. Our commercial lines businesses are generating terrific results. We're achieving meaningful price increases in personal lines. And our high-quality investment portfolio is poised to generate meaningfully higher levels of fixed income NII going forward. When we combine that and the success we've had with our [performative] call to action, we're very confident in our ability to continue to create shareholder value over time. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

我們期待在未來的日子裡參與有關解決方案的建設性對話。總而言之，在我們今年迄今為止的強勁業績的基礎上，我們對我們的前景充滿信心。我們的商業線業務正在產生極好的結果。我們正在實現個人產品線的有意義的價格上漲。我們的高質量投資組合有望在未來產生有意義的更高水平的固定收益 NII。當我們將這一點以及我們所取得的成功與我們的 [執行] 行動呼籲相結合時，我們對隨著時間的推移繼續為股東創造價值的能力充滿信心。有了這個，我很高興把電話轉給丹。

Thank you, Alan. Core income for the third quarter was $526 million and core return on equity was 7.9%. On a year-to-date basis, core ROE is a healthy 10.9%. Our after-tax underlying underwriting gain of $478 million was once again very strong. We generated record earned premium and reported an underlying combined ratio of 92.5%. In both Business Insurance and Bond & Specialty, the underlying combined ratios were particularly good and improved from the prior year quarter. While in Personal Insurance, the underlying combined ratio was elevated.

謝謝你，艾倫。第三季度核心收入為 5.26 億美元，核心股本回報率為 7.9%。年初至今，核心 ROE 為 10.9%，處於健康水平。我們 4.78 億美元的稅後基礎承保收益再次非常強勁。我們創造了創紀錄的盈利溢價，並報告了 92.5% 的基本綜合成本率。在商業保險和債券與特種險業務中，基本綜合比率都特別好，並且比去年同期有所改善。而在個人保險方面，基礎綜合比率有所提高。

Greg, Jeff and Michael will provide more detail on each segment's results in a few minutes. The expense ratio for the quarter of 28.1% was our best ever quarterly results, having improved 1.3 points from last year's third quarter. As a reminder, the expense ratio has improved even as we continue to increase our significant investment in strategic initiatives.

Greg、Jeff 和 Michael 將在幾分鐘內提供有關每個部分結果的更多詳細信息。本季度 28.1% 的費用率是我們有史以來最好的季度業績，比去年第三季度提高了 1.3 個百分點。提醒一下，即使我們繼續增加對戰略計劃的重大投資，費用率也有所改善。

With the improvement driven by our focus on productivity and efficiency, coupled with strong top line growth. In our earnings call last quarter, we told you that we expected the expense ratio to be around 29% for the full year. And with the year-to-date expense ratio at 28.7%, it looks like we'll do a little better than 29%.

隨著我們對生產力和效率的關注以及強勁的收入增長推動了改進。在上個季度的財報電話會議中，我們告訴您，我們預計全年的費用率將在 29% 左右。今年迄今的費用率為 28.7%，看起來我們會比 29% 做得好一點。

Our third quarter results include $512 million of pretax catastrophe losses, with $326 million related to Hurricane Ian. We hold ourselves accountable for managing our cat exposures over time, and Ian is another illustration of our industry-leading expertise. As you heard from Alan, based on available industry estimates for Ian, Traveler's share of losses looks to be well below our weighted average market share in the affected states.

我們第三季度的業績包括 5.12 億美元的稅前巨災損失，其中 3.26 億美元與颶風伊恩有關。隨著時間的推移，我們對管理我們的貓暴露負責，而 Ian 是我們行業領先專業知識的另一個例證。正如您從艾倫那裡聽到的那樣，根據 Ian 的現有行業估計，Traveler 的損失份額看起來遠低於我們在受影響州的加權平均市場份額。

The investments we've made in talent, technology and sophisticated peril-by-peril modeling are paying off in terms of risk selection, pricing segmentation, risk mitigation and our industry-leading claim response capabilities. Regarding cat losses in reinsurance, on a year-to-date basis through September 30, we've accumulated $1.4 billion of qualifying losses toward the aggregate retention of $2 billion on our property aggregate catastrophe XOL treaty.

我們在人才、技術和復雜的風險風險建模方面所做的投資在風險選擇、定價細分、風險緩解和我們行業領先的索賠響應能力方面得到了回報。關於再保險中的巨額損失，截至 9 月 30 日，從年初至今，我們已經積累了 14 億美元的合格損失，用於我們的財產總巨災 XOL 條約的總保留 20 億美元。

A couple of additional comments on reinsurance. Based on what we're hearing from the reinsurance community, it sounds like the market is aimed for higher pricing and capacity constraints. In terms of primary carriers, that's going to impact some much more than others. For 2 reasons, we would expect to be less impacted than others.

關於再保險的一些補充意見。根據我們從再保險界聽到的消息，聽起來市場的目標是更高的定價和容量限制。就主要運營商而言，這將比其他運營商產生更大的影響。出於兩個原因，我們預計受到的影響會小於其他人。

First, as a disciplined gross line underwriter, we just don't buy that much reinsurance compared to many others; second, we have a long track record of strong underwriting performance, consistently outperforming the industry. The upshot of those factors is that we generally expect to be able to obtain the reinsurance coverage we need at acceptable prices.

首先，作為一個紀律嚴明的總險承保人，與許多其他人相比，我們不會購買那麼多的再保險；其次，我們有長期的強勁承保業績記錄，持續跑贏行業。這些因素的結果是，我們通常期望能夠以可接受的價格獲得我們需要的再保險保障。

Also, because we're less reliant on reassurance, we should be less affected by price increases and capacity constraints. With less of an impact on our cost structure, we should have the option to expand our margin advantage or to reflect that cost advantage in our pricing, making us more competitive for attractive new business opportunities.

此外，由於我們不太依賴保證，我們應該較少受到價格上漲和產能限制的影響。由於對我們的成本結構的影響較小，我們應該可以選擇擴大我們的利潤優勢或在我們的定價中反映這種成本優勢，從而使我們在有吸引力的新業務機會方面更具競爭力。

Turning to prior year reserve development. We had total net favorable development of $20 million pretax in the third quarter. In Business Insurance, net unfavorable PYD of $61 million was driven by a $212 million charge related to our annual asbestos review, largely offset by better-than-expected loss experience in workers' comp across a number of accident years as well as favorable development in property. In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD of $63 million was driven by better-than-expected results in Fidelity and Surety as well as the management liability book.

轉向上一年的儲備開發。我們在第三季度的稅前淨有利發展總額為 2000 萬美元。在商業保險中，6100 萬美元的淨不利 PYD 是由與我們的年度石棉審查相關的 2.12 億美元費用推動的，這在很大程度上被多個事故年份的工人賠償損失經驗好於預期以及在財產。在 Bond & Specialty 中，6300 萬美元的淨有利 PYD 是由 Fidelity 和 Surety 以及管理責任賬簿的好於預期的結果推動的。

Personal Insurance had $18 million of net favorable PYD with modest movements in both auto and home. One additional comment on asbestos. Loss activity and the level of deaths related to mesothelioma did moderate somewhat in the most recent data available for review, but not to the degree we had projected. Nonetheless, the long-term trend is that mesothelioma mortality rates are declining.

個人保險有 1800 萬美元的淨有利 PYD，汽車和家庭的變動不大。關於石棉的另一條評論。在可供審查的最新數據中，與間皮瘤相關的損失活動和死亡水平確實有所緩和，但沒有達到我們預測的程度。儘管如此，長期趨勢是間皮瘤死亡率正在下降。

After-tax net investment income decreased by 22% from the prior year quarter to $505 million. As expected, returns in our nonfixed income portfolio were below last year's excellent results, although we were pleased that the alternative portfolio generated positive income despite the significant downturn in the broader equity markets. Fixed maturity NII was higher than in the prior year quarter, reflecting both the higher level of invested assets and the impact of higher yields.

稅後淨投資收入較去年同期下降 22% 至 5.05 億美元。正如預期的那樣，我們的非固定收益投資組合的回報低於去年的出色業績，儘管我們很高興在更廣泛的股票市場顯著低迷的情況下，另類投資組合產生了正收入。固定期限 NII 高於去年同期，反映了較高的投資資產水平和較高收益率的影響。

With interest rates having moved higher during the third quarter, we are again raising our outlook for fixed income NII, including earnings from short-term securities to approximately $500 million after tax in the fourth quarter and approximately $540 million on average per quarter in 2023. With an estimated $515 million in the first quarter, growing to an estimated $570 million in the fourth quarter. New money rates as of September 30 were about 150 basis points higher than what is embedded in the portfolio.

隨著第三季度利率走高，我們再次上調固定收益 NII 的前景，包括第四季度短期證券的稅後收益約為 5 億美元，2023 年平均每季度約為 5.4 億美元。第一季度估計為 5.15 億美元，第四季度估計增長到 5.7 億美元。截至 9 月 30 日，新貨幣利率比投資組合中的利率高出約 150 個基點。

And with rates having moved up again in October, that difference is now around 200 basis points. As it relates to our nonfixed income investments, let me take this opportunity to remind you that results for our private equities, real estate partnerships and hedge funds are generally reported to us on a 1-quarter lag. Since our non-fixed income returns tend to directionally follow the broader equity marks, we expect the downturn experienced by the broader market in the third quarter to impact our fourth quarter results.

隨著 10 月份利率再次上漲，這一差異現在約為 200 個基點。由於它與我們的非固定收益投資有關，讓我藉此機會提醒您，我們的私募股權、房地產合作夥伴關係和對沖基金的業績通常會滯後 1 個季度向我們報告。由於我們的非固定收益回報傾向於跟隨更廣泛的股票指數，我們預計第三季度大槃經歷的低迷將影響我們第四季度的業績。

Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter of $2.5 billion were again very strong. All our capital ratios were at or better than our target levels. And we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of more than $1.4 billion. Interest rates increased and spreads continued to widen during the quarter. And as a result, our net unrealized investment loss increased from $3.8 billion after tax at June 30, to $6.3 billion after tax at September 30.

轉向資本管理。本季度 25 億美元的經營現金流再次非常強勁。我們所有的資本比率都達到或好於我們的目標水平。我們在本季度末的控股公司流動性超過 14 億美元。本季度利率上升，利差繼續擴大。因此，我們的未實現淨投資損失從 6 月 30 日的稅後 38 億美元增加到 9 月 30 日的稅後 63 億美元。

As we've discussed in prior quarters, the changes in unrealized investment gains and losses generally do not impact how we manage our investment portfolio. We regularly hold fixed income investments to maturity, but quality of our fixed income portfolio is, as always, very high and changes in unrealized gains and losses have little impact on the expected cash flow from those investments, our statutory surplus or regulatory capital requirements.

正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的，未實現投資損益的變化通常不會影響我們管理投資組合的方式。我們定期持有固定收益投資至到期，但我們的固定收益投資組合的質量一如既往地非常高，未實現損益的變化對這些投資的預期現金流、我們的法定盈餘或監管資本要求幾乎沒有影響。

Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $111.90 at quarter end, up 2% from year-end and up 7% from a year ago. We returned $722 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter comprising share repurchases of $501 million and dividends of $221 million. We have approximately $2.5 billion of capacity remaining under the most recent share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors.

不包括未實現淨投資收益和損失的調整後每股賬面價值在季度末為 111.90 美元，比年底增長 2%，比一年前增長 7%。本季度我們向股東返還了 7.22 億美元的資本，其中包括 5.01 億美元的股票回購和 2.21 億美元的股息。根據我們董事會最近的股票回購授權，我們還有大約 25 億美元的產能。

To sum it all up, we had another very good quarter in light of the impact from Ian, with strong premium growth in all 3 segments, terrific underlying underwriting profitability in our commercial businesses and further improvement to our outlook for fixed income NII. All of that, combined with another quarter of progress on important strategic initiatives has us well positioned to continue to grow at attractive returns. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of business insurance.

綜上所述，鑑於 Ian 的影響，我們又度過了一個非常好的季度，所有 3 個細分市場的保費增長強勁，我們的商業業務的潛在承保盈利能力非常好，並且我們對固定收益 NII 的前景進一步改善。所有這一切，再加上在重要戰略舉措方面又取得了四分之一的進展，使我們處於有利地位，能夠繼續以有吸引力的回報增長。有了這個，我將把電話轉給格雷格討論商業保險。

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance had an excellent quarter with segment income of $471 million. We're particularly pleased with our exceptional underlying combined ratio, which improved to 90% for the quarter. This result is a testament to our execution and focus on achieving our target returns. The underlying loss ratio increased by about 1 point as the benefit of earned pricing was more than offset by the comparison to both the low level of property losses and the favorable impact associated with the pandemic in the prior year quarter.

謝謝，丹。商業保險季度表現出色，部門收入為 4.71 億美元。我們對我們卓越的基本綜合比率感到特別滿意，該比率在本季度提高到 90%。這一結果證明了我們的執行力和專注於實現我們的目標回報。基本損失率增加了約 1 個百分點，因為與上一季度的低水平財產損失和與大流行相關的有利影響相比，賺取的定價的好處遠遠超過了抵消。

The increase in the underlying loss ratio was more than offset by a lower expense ratio that benefited from our ongoing strategic focus on productivity and efficiency. Net written premiums of $4.4 billion were up 9% over the prior year quarter, with growth in all domestic markets and lines of business. Premiums benefited from strong renewal premium change [and] retention, both of which were once again historically high as well as higher levels of new business.

基本損失率的增加被較低的費用率所抵消，這得益於我們對生產力和效率的持續戰略關注。淨承保保費為 44 億美元，比去年同期增長 9%，所有國內市場和業務線均實現增長。保費受益於強勁的續保保費變化[和]保留，這兩者都再次創下歷史新高以及新業務的更高水平。

Turning to domestic production for the quarter. Renewal premium change of 10.2% was once again exceptionally strong. RPC included renewal rate change of 5%, a tick up from the second quarter and strong exposure growth.

本季度轉向國內生產。 10.2% 的續保保費變化再次異常強勁。 RPC 包括 5% 的續訂率變化，較第二季度有所上升以及強勁的曝光增長。

Retention remained very strong at 86% and new business premium was more than $500 million, up 9% over the prior year. We're pleased with the strong production results and the excellent execution by our colleagues in the field. Given our high-quality book as well as several years of segmented rate increases and improvements in terms and conditions, we're thrilled to continue to produce historically strong retention levels. The rate gains we achieved in the quarter reflect our deliberate execution, which balanced the persistent headwinds and uncertainty in the current environment with the improvement in profitability across our portfolio after several years of strong pricing.

保留率仍然非常強勁，達到 86%，新業務溢價超過 5 億美元，比上年增長 9%。我們對強勁的生產成果和我們在該領域的同事的出色執行感到高興。鑑於我們的高質量圖書以及幾年的分段費率增長和條款和條件的改進，我們很高興能夠繼續產生歷史上強勁的保留水平。我們在本季度實現的利率增長反映了我們的刻意執行，這平衡了當前環境中持續的逆風和不確定性，以及經過幾年強勁定價後我們投資組合的盈利能力的提高。

As always, we'll continue to execute our granular pricing, careful management of deductibles, attachment points, limits, sublimits and exclusions to maintain profitable growth. As for the individual businesses, in Select, renewal premium change remains healthy at 10.6%, while retention of 83% was up 2 points from the prior year quarter. New business was up 8% from the prior year quarter, driven by the continued success of our BOP 2.0 product. In middle market, renewal premium change remained very strong at over 9% while retention was higher year-over-year and sequentially at an excellent 89%.

與往常一樣，我們將繼續執行精細定價，謹慎管理免賠額、附加點、限額、分限額和排除項，以保持盈利增長。至於個別業務，在 Select 中，續保保費變化保持健康，為 10.6%，而保留率為 83%，比去年同期增加了 2 個百分點。在我們的 BOP 2.0 產品持續成功的推動下，新業務比去年同期增長了 8%。在中端市場，續保保費變化仍然非常強勁，超過 9%，而保有率同比上升，環比保持在 89% 以上。

New business premium of $271 million was up 5% over the prior year. To sum up, Business Insurance had another terrific quarter. We're pleased with our execution in driving strong financial results while continuing to invest in the business for long-term profitable growth. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

新業務保費為 2.71 億美元，比上年增長 5%。總而言之，商業保險又一個了不起的季度。我們很高興我們在推動強勁財務業績的同時繼續投資於業務以實現長期盈利增長。有了這個，我會把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty had an outstanding quarter on both the top and bottom lines. Segment income was $242 million, up 39% from the prior year quarter, driven by record underlying underwriting income and a higher level of net favorable prior year reserve development.

謝謝，格雷格。 Bond & Specialty 在收入和利潤方面都有出色的季度表現。分部收入為 2.42 億美元，比上年同期增長 39%，這得益於創紀錄的基本承保收入和更高水平的淨利好上年儲備開發水平。

The underlying combined ratio was a terrific 78.4%, an improvement of 5 points from the prior year quarter, reflecting both the benefit of earned pricing and about a 2-point impact from the favorable reestimation of losses for the first 2 quarters of 2022. Turning to the top line. Net written premiums grew 8% in the quarter to a record high with contributions from all our businesses. Domestic Surety grew an outstanding 18% in the quarter, driven by larger average bond premiums.

基礎綜合成本率達到了驚人的 78.4%，比去年同期提高了 5 個百分點，既反映了盈利定價的好處，也反映了 2022 年前兩個季度虧損的有利重新估計帶來的約 2 個百分點的影響。到頂線。在我們所有業務的貢獻下，本季度的淨承保保費增長 8%，創歷史新高。在平均債券溢價增加的推動下，國內擔保在本季度增長了 18%。

In domestic management liability renewal premium change remained strong at 9% while we improve retention by 1 point to a terrific 89%. We're also pleased that we increased new business 20% from the prior year quarter as we leveraged the investments we've made and continue to make in our competitive advantages to grow these profitable businesses. So both top and bottom line results for Bond & Specialty were again terrific this quarter, reflecting continued excellent execution across our business and the value of our market-leading products and services to our customers and distribution partners. And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

在國內管理責任續保保費變化保持在 9% 的強勁水平，而我們將保留率提高了 1 個百分點，達到了驚人的 89%。我們也很高興我們的新業務比上一季度增加了 20%，因為我們利用我們所做的投資並繼續利用我們的競爭優勢來發展這些有利可圖的業務。因此，Bond & Specialty 本季度的營收和利潤結果再次非常出色，這反映了我們在整個業務中的持續出色執行以及我們市場領先的產品和服務對我們的客戶和分銷合作夥伴的價值。現在我將把電話轉給邁克爾。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. For the third quarter, Personal Insurance reported a combined ratio of 107.2%, up approximately 2.5 points compared to the prior year quarter, primarily driven by a higher underlying combined ratio. The 4-point increase in the underlying combined ratio reflects the continuing environmental challenge of elevated loss severity in both automobile and homeowners.

謝謝，傑夫，大家早上好。第三季度，個人保險報告的綜合成本率為 107.2%，與去年同期相比上升了約 2.5 個百分點，主要受較高的基礎綜合成本率推動。基礎綜合比率增加 4 個百分點反映了汽車和房主損失嚴重程度不斷上升的環境挑戰。

The loss impacts were partially offset by a 2-point reduction in the expense ratio. For the quarter, catastrophe losses were $285 million and included losses from Hurricane Ian, most of which are Florida automobile losses. Catastrophes were 2 points lower than the prior year quarter, which included Hurricane Ida. Net written premiums for the quarter grew 13%, primarily driven by very strong price increases in both domestic automobile and homeowners and other.

損失影響被費用比率降低 2 個點部分抵消。本季度，巨災損失為 2.85 億美元，其中包括伊恩颶風造成的損失，其中大部分是佛羅里達州的汽車損失。災難比去年同期低 2 個百分點，其中包括颶風艾達。本季度的淨承保保費增長 13%，主要受國內汽車和房主等價格強勁上漲的推動。

In automobile, the third quarter combined ratio was 112.2%, including nearly 8 points of catastrophe losses. The underlying combined ratio was 103.9%, an increase of 6.9 points relative to the prior year quarter. The increase reflects another quarter of elevated vehicle replacement and repair costs, and to a lesser extent, the continued return toward pre-pandemic driving and claim frequency levels.

汽車方面，第三季度綜合成本率為112.2%，其中巨災損失近8個點。基礎綜合成本率為 103.9%，較去年同期增加 6.9 個百分點。這一增長反映了車輛更換和維修成本又增加了四分之一，並且在較小程度上反映了繼續恢復到大流行前的駕駛和索賠頻率水平。

Our primary response to these environmental challenges is higher pricing. We are pleased with our progress this quarter, building on our actions to increase rates over the past few quarters. While pricing continues to gain momentum, it will still take some time for rate actions to fully earn into our results. In Homeowners and Other, the third quarter combined ratio was 102.3%, an improvement relative to the third quarter of 2021 as catastrophe losses in property were lower.

我們對這些環境挑戰的主要反應是提高定價。我們對本季度取得的進展感到滿意，這是我們在過去幾個季度提高利率的行動的基礎。雖然定價繼續獲得動力，但利率行動仍需要一些時間才能完全影響我們的業績。在房主和其他方面，第三季度的綜合成本率為 102.3%，與 2021 年第三季度相比有所改善，因為財產的巨災損失較低。

The underlying combined ratio of 94.9% increased about 1.5 points from the prior year quarter. We continue to experience higher loss severity related to a combination of labor and material price increases in the quarter, but that loss pressure was largely offset by the current quarter benefit of earned pricing, lower non-catastrophe weather losses and a lower expense ratio.

基礎綜合成本率為 94.9%，比去年同期增加約 1.5 個百分點。我們在本季度繼續經歷與勞動力和材料價格上漲相關的更高損失嚴重程度，但這種損失壓力在很大程度上被當前季度的盈利定價、較低的非災害天氣損失和較低的費用比率所抵消。

Turning to quarterly production. We continue to make excellent progress in achieving pricing increases. I'll discuss homeowners and other production first this morning before spending a bit more time on automobile. For domestic homeowners and other, renewal premium change increased to 14.1% and retention decreased slightly to 83%, both consistent with our expectations. We expect renewal premium change to continue at these levels for the remainder of 2022.

轉向季度生產。我們在實現價格上漲方面繼續取得出色進展。今天早上我將首先討論房主和其他生產，然後再花更多時間在汽車上。對於國內房主和其他人，續保保費變化增加至 14.1%，保留率略有下降至 83%，均符合我們的預期。我們預計 2022 年剩餘時間內續保費的變化將繼續保持在這些水平。

Looking ahead to 2023, we expect renewal premium change to increase above these already very strong levels as we implement additional and certain value increases. For domestic automobile, renewal premium change increased to 8.1%, while retention was 83%, also consistent with our expectations. During the quarter, we implemented price increases in 26 states at an average of about 8.5%. We expect that domestic automobile renewal premium change will get into double digits in the fourth quarter and be in the mid-teens throughout 2023.

展望 2023 年，隨著我們實施額外的和一定的增值，我們預計續保保費變化將超過這些已經非常強勁的水平。國產車的續保保費變化增至 8.1%，保有率為 83%，也符合我們的預期。本季度，我們在 26 個州實施了平均約 8.5% 的價格上漲。我們預計國內汽車更新保費變化將在第四季度達到兩位數，並在整個 2023 年保持在十幾歲左右。

Written pricing should reach adequacy in most states, representing the majority of our business between now and mid-2023, and that pricing will earn into our results over time. In addition to increased pricing, we're also implementing additional nonrate actions, including further tightening underwriting criteria, restricting binding authority for agents in certain states and removing our auto product from comparative raters in California and Florida.

從現在到 2023 年年中，書面定價應該在大多數州達到足夠的水平，代表我們的大部分業務，並且隨著時間的推移，定價將影響我們的業績。除了提高定價外，我們還實施了額外的非利率行動，包括進一步收緊承保標準、限制某些州代理的約束力以及將我們的汽車產品從加利福尼亞和佛羅里達的比較評級機構中移除。

These actions will help us manage growth and improve profitability. Personal Insurance has a strong track record of financial performance, demonstrated by our over 40% net written premium growth and 97% combined ratio for the 5-year period from 2017 to 2021. While we and the industry continue to face near-term environmental headwinds, we remain confident in our ability to deliver attractive returns over time while continuing to build the business for the future. Now I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.

這些行動將幫助我們管理增長並提高盈利能力。個人保險在財務業績方面有著良好的記錄，從 2017 年至 2021 年的 5 年期間我們的淨承保保費增長超過 40% 和 97% 的綜合比率證明了這一點。雖然我們和行業繼續面臨近期的環境逆風，我們仍然相信我們有能力隨著時間的推移提供有吸引力的回報，同時繼續為未來建立業務。現在我將把電話轉回給阿貝。

Thank you, and we are ready to open up for Q&A.

謝謝你，我們準備好接受問答了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James.

您的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

I guess I'm going to start out with the expense ratio improvement. Dan, you talked about it being a combination of top line productivity and efficiency and now the target is a little bit below 29% for the year. Maybe you could give us a breakdown of where the improvements are coming from? And more importantly, it seems like the trend is going to continue, the trend of improvement should continue beyond just this year. Maybe you can comment a little bit on that.

我想我將從提高費用率開始。丹，你談到它是最高線生產力和效率的結合，現在的目標是略低於今年的 29%。也許您可以給我們詳細說明改進的來源？更重要的是，這種趨勢似乎會持續下去，改善的趨勢應該會持續到今年之後。也許你可以對此發表一點評論。

Sure, Greg. We're -- it's pretty broad-based, and it's sort of the continuation of this theme that we've seen really now for the past 3 or 4 or even 5 years of making important investments in strategic initiatives. At the same time, we focus on productivity and efficiency and grow the top line in all 3 segments. So what you see is just a consistent pattern of expense increases at a rate that's well below the rate that we're growing the top line.

當然，格雷格。我們 - 它的基礎非常廣泛，這是我們在過去 3 年或 4 年甚至 5 年對戰略計劃進行重要投資時真正看到的這一主題的延續。同時，我們專注於生產力和效率，並在所有 3 個細分市場中實現收入增長。因此，您所看到的只是一種一致的支出增長模式，其速度遠低於我們收入增長的速度。

In terms of whether we expect that to continue or providing outlook going forward, we've said probably 1.5 years ago or so that we've gotten down to 30, and we were pretty comfortable at that level. Then we said we got down to 29%, and we were going to be pretty comfortable at that level. At 28.7% on a year-to-date basis, I'd still put that in the around 29% bucket.

就我們是否期望這種情況繼續下去或提供未來的前景而言，我們可能在 1.5 年前左右說過我們已經降到了 30 歲，我們在那個水平上很舒服。然後我們說我們降到了 29%，在那個水平上我們會很舒服。年初至今為 28.7%，我仍將其放在 29% 左右。

As Alan has talked about many times, what we like about our focus on productivity and efficiency and expenses as it gives us optionality. We can continue to make important investments, which we will. We could let it drop to the bottom line. We could reflect it in more competitive pricing. And there's no reason for us, and we're not going to declare at this point what we think that's going to look like next year or a year or 2 out. So suffice it to say that -- in the 29% neighborhood is a number that we're still pretty comfortable with and 28.7% through the first 9 months feels really good.

正如艾倫多次談到的那樣，我們喜歡我們對生產力、效率和費用的關注，因為它給了我們選擇權。我們可以繼續進行重要的投資，我們將這樣做。我們可以讓它跌至底線。我們可以將其反映在更具競爭力的定價中。我們沒有理由，我們現在不會宣布我們認為明年或一兩年後會是什麼樣子。可以這麼說 - 在 29% 的社區中，我們仍然對這個數字感到滿意，而前 9 個月的 28.7% 感覺非常好。

I guess the second question will be on -- just on reinsurance. And I know you're pretty upfront and your record of being a gross line underwriter stands by itself. So I guess when I think about the treaties you do have in place like the aggregate XOL treaty, and whatever excess loss property cover you have in place. You mentioned that pricing is probably going to change for the market next year. What are you hearing about how those particular programs for the Traveler's might evolve? And I guess what I'm getting at is, should we expect increased retentions for the Traveler's in '23 and '24 as a result?

我想第二個問題是關於再保險的。而且我知道你很坦率，而且你作為總承銷商的記錄本身就站得住腳。因此，我想當我考慮到您確實擁有的條約（例如總體 XOL 條約）以及您擁有的任何超額損失財產保險時。您提到明年市場的定價可能會發生變化。您聽說過哪些針對旅行者的特定計劃可能會如何發展？我想我的意思是，我們是否應該期望 Traveler's 在 23 和 24 年的留存率增加？

I think, Greg, too early to say. We'll talk about the 1/1 renewals when we know how things turned out, which we'll do probably at the -- in the fourth quarter call. I think the point of the comments today were really to just reinforce for folks that, one, we're not a big user of reinsurance, especially relative to some other parts of the market.

我認為，格雷格，現在說還為時過早。當我們知道結果如何時，我們將討論 1/1 續約，我們可能會在第四季度的電話會議上這樣做。我認為今天評論的重點實際上只是為了向人們強調，第一，我們不是再保險的大用戶，尤其是相對於市場的其他部分而言。

And two, our track record and our long tenure with a lot of our trading partners has us pretty confident that we're going to be able to place what we want to place at appropriate prices. The cat aggregate XOL treaty specifically, we've said -- I think we've said every year we had it, we'd either buy it or not, depending on what we thought the pricing level was relative to our own appetite and you've seen us place anywhere from 55% of that treaty to 85% of that treaty depending on the pricing environment. And if there's a year where we decide to not place any of it, we'll be perfectly fine with that. But that's a decision we'll make as we go through the -- through the renewal process.

第二，我們的業績記錄和與許多貿易夥伴的長期合作讓我們非常有信心，我們將能夠以合適的價格出售我們想要的產品。特別是 cat 聚合 XOL 條約，我們說過 -- 我想我們每年都說過，我們要么買，要么不買，這取決於我們認為定價水平與我們自己的胃口和你'已經看到我們根據定價環境放置了從該條約的 55% 到該條約的 85% 的任何地方。如果有一年我們決定不放置任何東西，我們會非常滿意。但這是我們將在完成更新過程時做出的決定。

Greg, it's Alan. I would just add to that, to Dan's point, whether retentions go up or they don't go up, who knows. But I think the important point is -- given the strategic way we think about reinsurance and given the strength of our underwriting, we're going to have the flexibility to make the right decision for our business.

格雷格，我是艾倫。我只想補充一點，就丹的觀點而言，留存率是上升還是不上升，誰知道呢。但我認為重要的一點是——鑑於我們對再保險的戰略性思考以及我們承保的實力，我們將擁有為我們的業務做出正確決策的靈活性。

Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, so Hurricane Ian, right? It seems like it's going to be a pretty large event. I know you guys talked about below market share, but insured losses probably $50 billion to $60 billion, which I think really has the impact to move pricing. So hoping to get your view there, Alan. And then if you can tie that back, you guys did make a comment about, right? Being a little less reliant on what's happening in the reinsurance market, so you can be more competitive on the pricing front. So how do you think price plays out given this large event and the reinsurance dynamic as well?

我的第一個問題，颶風伊恩，對吧？看來這將是一個相當大的事件。我知道你們談到低於市場份額，但保險損失可能在 500 億至 600 億美元之間，我認為這確實會影響定價。所以希望能得到你的看法，艾倫。然後，如果你能把它綁回來，你們確實發表了評論，對吧？減少對再保險市場發生的事情的依賴，因此您可以在定價方面更具競爭力。那麼，鑑於這一大型事件以及再保險動態，您認為價格會如何發揮作用？

Yes, Elyse, thank you. Just to start with basics, pricing is a function of rate adequacy and given what we all expect to happen to reinsurance, there's going to be a rate need. On top of that, certainly, as it relates to property, there's going to be capacity constraints that are -- that will be significant, I suspect, across the market. And I think on top of those things, which are probably largely quantifiable, it was just a big storm, maybe [larger than] Katrina. And that's just going to impact the way the market thinks about risk. So we would expect that constellation of factors to put certainly upward pressure on property pricing and potentially extend into other aspects of the market as well, we'll see. But certainly, as it relates to property, we would expect there to be upward pressure on pricing.

是的，愛麗絲，謝謝。只是從基礎開始，定價是利率充足性的函數，鑑於我們都期望再保險發生的事情，將會有利率需求。最重要的是，當然，因為它與房地產有關，所以會出現容量限制——我懷疑，這將是整個市場的重要因素。而且我認為除了那些可能在很大程度上可以量化的事情之外，這只是一場大風暴，可能[比]卡特里娜颶風還大。這只會影響市場對風險的看法。因此，我們預計一系列因素肯定會給房地產價格帶來上行壓力，並可能延伸到市場的其他方面，我們拭目以待。但可以肯定的是，由於它與房地產有關，我們預計價格將面臨上行壓力。

And then my second question, you guys called out the impact of the favorable [accident] year adjustment within management liability. Could you give us more details on what drove that, the specific lines on was that better frequency or severity driven?

然後我的第二個問題，你們提到了管理責任中有利的[事故]年度調整的影響。你能否給我們提供更多關於是什麼驅動的細節，具體的線路是更好的頻率或嚴重性驅動？

Yes, Elyse, it's Dan. I don't think we're going to parse it out finer than that. We have a loss pick at the start of the year. We'll look at it as we get to the midpoint of the year and then each of the back couple of quarters of the year, the -- the short answer is things have just come in a little better than we would have expected based on the plan. And so that's what we're reflecting in this quarter's results.

是的，愛麗絲，是丹。我不認為我們會比這更好地解析它。我們在年初有一個虧損選擇。當我們到了年中時，我們會看看它，然後是每年後幾個季度，簡短的回答是，事情剛剛比我們預期的要好一點計劃。這就是我們在本季度業績中所反映的。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。

Just a couple for me. So Dan, you were talking about the NII guidance and how rates have moved since [930]. Is that guide trued up for where we are today in terms of rates? Or is that just as of where new money was at 930 .

對我來說只是一對。所以丹，你在談論 NII 指南以及自 [930] 以來利率如何變化。就費率而言，該指南是否與我們今天所處的位置相符？還是就像新資金在 930 的位置一樣。

You're getting a little fine there, Ryan, in terms of whether we're going to change it every 2 weeks. We've seen rates move up and down a little bit. It's been fairly volatile in the last 30 days. I would say, generally speaking, it's reflective of the current environment. And I wouldn't put a specific date on it.

關於我們是否要每 2 週更換一次，Ryan 的情況有點好。我們已經看到利率上下波動。在過去的 30 天裡，它相當不穩定。我想說，一般來說，它反映了當前的環境。我不會給出具體的日期。

Okay. And then the cat number in auto was higher than we've seen. How much of that [$133 million] auto cat is from Ian? And I guess I'm just curious how certain is that estimate at this point? Is that pretty much a ground-up loss? Or is a lot of that IBNR kind of based off of like an industry view if that makes sense?

好的。然後汽車中的貓數比我們看到的要高。那輛 [1.33 億美元] 汽車貓中有多少來自伊恩？我想我只是好奇這個估計在這一點上有多確定？這幾乎是一個徹底的損失嗎？或者，如果這有意義的話，很多 IBNR 是基於行業觀點嗎？

Sure. So it's Dan. I'll start and then Michael can chime in if you want. I think we feel pretty good about that number. We watch it very closely and very carefully, as you would imagine, given the unfortunate timing, not only the unfortunate event itself, but the unfortunate timing for those of us who are accountants and actuaries trying to come up with an estimate at the end of the quarter.

當然。所以是丹。我會開始，然後如果你願意，邁克爾可以插話。我認為我們對這個數字感覺很好。正如您所想像的那樣，我們非常密切和非常仔細地觀察它，考慮到不幸的時機，不僅是不幸的事件本身，而且對於我們這些會計師和精算師試圖在年底做出估計的人來說也是不幸的時機季度。

But we watched it all the way through the first week of October. We made our best estimate. At this point, a lot of it's unpaid. We look at the data the way it continued to develop all the way through, frankly, the time we're getting ready to push the button on reporting earnings and what came in was pretty consistent with what we'd expected before. But to be clear, we're doing it based on what we think our exposure is in the footprint of the event and the way claims have actually come in, in a couple of weeks since then. It's not the blunt instrument of just taking an industry estimate and our expected market share.

但我們在 10 月的第一周一直看著它。我們做了最好的估計。在這一點上，很多都是未付的。坦率地說，在我們準備按下報告收益的按鈕時，我們一直在查看數據的持續發展方式，而進來的數據與我們之前的預期非常一致。但需要明確的是，我們這樣做是基於我們認為我們在事件足跡中的曝光以及索賠實際出現的方式，從那以後的幾週內。這不是僅僅接受行業估計和我們預期的市場份額的生硬工具。

Yes. And Ryan, it's Michael. I would just add, part of the question might be the number relative to some of the external estimates that have been floating around for auto. And frankly, given our footprint inside Florida, we weren't surprised. And I mean, strategically, we for a while have been avoiding Southern Florida. So that means you're going to push your market share to a more a higher level than your statewide average in the places that you're still writing. So in the context of that and our local market share and our strategy in Florida, the number is not surprising.

是的。還有瑞恩，是邁克爾。我只想補充一點，部分問題可能是與汽車相關的一些外部估計的數字。坦率地說，鑑於我們在佛羅里達州的足跡，我們並不感到驚訝。我的意思是，從戰略上講，我們有一段時間一直在避開南佛羅里達州。因此，這意味著您將在您仍在寫作的地方將您的市場份額推向比全州平均水平更高的水平。因此，在這方面以及我們在當地的市場份額和我們在佛羅里達州的戰略的背景下，這個數字並不令人驚訝。

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I wanted to focus on the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio, and there was definitely some noise in last year's quarter. So it's -- just wondering if you could clarify if we look at the underlying loss ratio in business insurance, how much of the benefit earned pricing was during the quarter? And then maybe just talk about your view of that going forward? I know, Alan, you mentioned some uncertainty in the environment. So maybe just some high-level comments around that as well.

我想關注商業保險的基本損失率，去年這個季度肯定有一些噪音。所以它 - 只是想知道如果我們查看商業保險的潛在損失率，您是否可以澄清一下，本季度的收益定價有多少？然後也許只是談談你對未來的看法？我知道，艾倫，你提到了環境中的一些不確定性。因此，也許只是一些關於此的高級評論。

Sure, David. It's Dan. I'll start. So as Greg gave you in his script, last year, there was some good news from non-cat property losses and a little bit of what we felt was favorable impact related to the COVID environment. So we don't have that in this year. We do have some benefit of price versus trend. As you've seen over the last year or so, the written rate number come down, that number has trended down. It's now something less than one point. We're not really going to put a -- put an outlook projection on it, but you can see what rates done and exposure have done in the last few quarters, and that's been pretty steady. The only other comment I'd make related to that is while there was noise in last year's quarter, we don't think there's a lot of noise in this year's quarter. So that's why Greg didn't really call anything out as unusual in terms of what in this year's underlying loss ratio.

當然，大衛。是丹。我會開始的。因此，正如格雷格在他的劇本中給你的，去年，非貓財產損失有一些好消息，我們認為有一點與 COVID 環境相關的有利影響。所以今年我們沒有。我們確實從價格與趨勢之間獲得了一些好處。正如您在過去一年左右看到的那樣，書面費率數字下降了，該數字呈下降趨勢。現在還不到一分。我們不會真的對它進行前景預測，但你可以看到過去幾個季度的利率和風險敞口，而且相當穩定。與此相關的唯一其他評論是，雖然去年這個季度有噪音，但我們認為今年這個季度並沒有太多噪音。所以這就是為什麼格雷格沒有真正指出今年的基本損失率有什麼不尋常的地方。

Got it. And then maybe if you could just talk about Alan. And maybe Greg, just talk about how your view of the rate environment in BI has changed over the last 3 months? And I know you guys don't typically do this, but I'm wondering -- if you could just give some color around rate movement by line sort of high level. I know, Alan, you just spoke about on the property side. But maybe just wondering, some of the other lines and sort of how you're thinking about that going forward. Do you think we continue to see an acceleration here.

知道了。然後也許你可以談談艾倫。也許 Greg，請談談您對 BI 中的費率環境的看法在過去 3 個月中發生了怎樣的變化？而且我知道你們通常不會這樣做，但我想知道 - 如果您可以通過高級別的線來為匯率變動提供一些顏色。我知道，艾倫，你剛才談到了財產方面的問題。但也許只是想知道，其他一些線路以及你對未來的看法。你認為我們在這裡繼續看到加速嗎？

David, let me start, and then I'll look to Greg to add anything you'd like to add. I would describe the pricing environment as strong. Overall commercial pricing is near record levels. The breadth of the pricing gains are very good. We always look at retention to give us a sign on the strength of pricing, retention really (inaudible) buzz is hanging in there at very high numbers.

大衛，讓我開始吧，然後我會請格雷格添加您想要添加的任何內容。我將定價環境描述為強勁。整體商業定價接近創紀錄水平。定價收益的廣度非常好。我們總是關注留存率，以向我們展示定價的力量，留存率真的（聽不清）嗡嗡聲以非常高的數字掛在那裡。

The strong pricing led by property, auto, umbrella, primary GL. So it's broad-based at overall pricing levels that we would say are near records. You heard me say that from here, we would expect there to be some upward pressure on pricing in property. At the other end of the spectrum, you've got workers' comp where we'd expect more of the same. And the other lines will fall in between those 2, reflecting the 2 factors that Greg mentioned.

由房地產、汽車、雨傘、初級 GL 主導的強勢定價。因此，在我們所說的接近記錄的整體定價水平上，它的基礎廣泛。你聽到我說，從這裡開始，我們預計房地產定價會有一些上行壓力。在光譜的另一端，你有我們期望更多相同的工人補償。其他線將介於這兩者之間，反映了 Greg 提到的 2 個因素。

On the one hand, we continue to have headwinds from inflation and supply chain disruption and weather, social inflation, reinsurance, et cetera. And on the other hand, we've had pretty good pricing for a number of years that has improved the overall returns of the portfolio. So I would say those other lines in between will reflect the balance of those 2 dynamics.

一方面，我們繼續受到通貨膨脹和供應鏈中斷以及天氣、社會通貨膨脹、再保險等方面的不利影響。另一方面，我們多年來一直擁有相當不錯的定價，這提高了投資組合的整體回報。所以我想說，介於兩者之間的其他線條將反映這兩種動態的平衡。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。

First question, regarding capital management. If I look at kind of year-to-date dividends and repurchases, it looks like you've given back 100%-ish of operating income despite very strong top line growth. So like I recall, maybe it was a year ago or more, you talked about kind of making us kind of take into account that you needed to support that strong top line growth, which has continued to accelerate. So any thoughts there on whether you can continue to buy back at such a high ratio?

第一個問題，關於資本管理。如果我看一下年初至今的股息和回購，看起來你已經返還了 100% 的營業收入，儘管收入增長非常強勁。所以就像我記得的那樣，也許是一年或更長時間，你談到讓我們考慮到你需要支持強勁的收入增長，這種增長一直在加速。那麼您是否可以繼續以如此高的比率回購股票？

Mike, it's Dan. Thank you very much for listening to me 2 years ago. I appreciate it. That's still the theme. I think that we'll follow here. We're going to be -- we're going to be very strongly capitalized. Nonetheless, the business does continue to generate excess capital. we'll look to deploy that excess capital if we can in a way that generates attractive returns. And when we think we've exhausted all those opportunities, we're going to have done for the last 15 years and continue to give it back to shareholders.

邁克，是丹。非常感謝你兩年前聽我的。我很感激。這仍然是主題。我想我們會跟隨這裡。我們將成為 - 我們將擁有非常強大的資本。儘管如此，該業務確實會繼續產生過剩的資本。如果可以的話，我們將尋求以產生有吸引力的回報的方式部署多餘的資本。當我們認為我們已經用盡了所有這些機會時，我們將在過去 15 年中做到這一點，並繼續將其回饋給股東。

It is hard to look at any 1 year or in this case, less than a year and do the ratio of buybacks and dividends relative to core income and draw conclusion. We have said historically, and I would repeat here, it will not and cannot be 100% going forward, we are going to need to hold on to some capital to support the business growth. What we've done this year is partly a function of where we ended 2021 with really strong performance, especially in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 that put us in the position that we started the year with probably a very robust cap position.

很難查看任何 1 年，或者在這種情況下，不到一年，併計算回購和股息相對於核心收入的比率並得出結論。我們在歷史上已經說過，我要在這裡重複一遍，未來不會也不能 100% 前進，我們將需要持有一些資金來支持業務增長。我們今年所做的部分是由於我們在 2021 年結束時表現非常強勁，特別是在 2021 年第三和第四季度，這使我們處於年初可能非常強勁的上限位置。

Okay. That's helpful. My last question just kind of back to David's question and your remarks on just the overall kind of competitive environment. How does travelers think about the dynamic of meaningfully improved new money rates on investment income. I mean does that kind of allow you to travelers?

好的。這很有幫助。我的最後一個問題有點像大衛的問題和你對整體競爭環境的評論。旅行者如何看待有意義地提高投資收入的新貨幣利率的動態。我的意思是這種允許你旅行嗎？

Or do you feel like maybe the industry is allowed to kind of let off the gas on pricing? Or is it just kind of rates have been so volatile over the last many (inaudible), including today that it's tough to kind of bake in the expectation that rates stay at current levels. Any thoughts there?

或者你覺得這個行業可能被允許在定價方面放鬆一下？或者它只是在過去的許多（聽不清）中利率波動如此之大，包括今天，很難期望利率保持在當前水平。有什麼想法嗎？

Sure. So the rate levels do impact our view of the outlook for net investment income, which you'll hear from Dan. And there is some judgment involved in how much of that we put into our pricing model. But there's 2 things you got to keep in mind in terms of the impact of interest rates on pricing.

當然。因此，利率水平確實會影響我們對淨投資收入前景的看法，你會從丹那裡聽到。我們在定價模型中投入了多少，這涉及到一些判斷。但是，就利率對定價的影響而言，您必須牢記兩件事。

One is that earns in overtime into the investment portfolio because you got such a small portion of it turning over in any one year. And two, our -- while we've got mid-teens return on equity objective over time, when we think about the near term, it's really -- we think about it as a margin over the risk-free rate. And so as those interest rates go up, certainly as a function of the risk-free rate, we're also increasing our return objectives.

一種是在投資組合中賺取加班費，因為你在任何一年都得到了這麼小的一部分。第二，我們的 - 雖然隨著時間的推移，我們的股本回報率目標是十幾歲，但當我們考慮近期時，它確實是 - 我們認為它是無風險利率的邊際。因此，隨著這些利率上升，當然作為無風險利率的函數，我們也在提高我們的回報目標。

And so it's just not as simple as looking at it saying, gee, investment income is going up, pricing is coming down. It's a little bit more of a complicated assessment. And I would say the takeaway is, certainly in the short term, we wouldn't expect a very significant impact.

所以這並不像看著它說的那麼簡單，哎呀，投資收入在上升，價格在下降。這是一個有點複雜的評估。我想說的是，肯定在短期內，我們預計不會產生非常顯著的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

A couple of them here first. Michael, I'm just curious, in your comments, you talked about it sounds like reducing kind of your appetite on the personal auto line of business by getting off of some comparative raters, et cetera, et cetera? Is that kind of what you're alluding to? Because I look at your PIF growth continue to grow in personal auto. Should that kind of think reverse trend here as you really focus on getting profitability back in that area -- that line?

先來幾個。邁克爾，我只是好奇，在你的評論中，你談到這聽起來像是通過一些比較評估者等等來降低你對個人汽車業務的興趣？你指的就是這種嗎？因為我看你的 PIF 增長在個人汽車上繼續增長。當您真正專注於在該領域（即那條線）恢復盈利能力時，這種想法是否應該在這裡扭轉趨勢？

Sure, Brian. Thanks for the question. I think what I would say is, again, we're really focused on improving profitability. We're working to manage growth as we do that. That said, in the majority of jurisdictions, we have a pretty good line of sight to rate adequacy. And so in those jurisdictions, while we're renewing accounts and writing new business for the most part, we're comfortable with what's going on. The couple of jurisdictions that I did spike out are a little bit challenging in that regard.

當然，布賴恩。謝謝你的問題。我想我要說的是，我們真的專注於提高盈利能力。我們正在努力管理增長。也就是說，在大多數司法管轄區，我們可以很好地評估充分性。因此，在這些司法管轄區，雖然我們大部分時間都在更新賬戶和編寫新業務，但我們對正在發生的事情感到滿意。在這方面，我確實飆升的幾個司法管轄區有點挑戰。

In Florida, there's currently a moratorium on file and use for price increases, which is a change in their regulatory approach to rate filings. And in California, the Department of Insurance is still not considering auto rate increases.

在佛羅里達州，目前暫停備案和用於價格上漲，這是他們對費率備案的監管方式的改變。在加利福尼亞州，保險部仍未考慮提高汽車費率。

And so in those 2 states, in particular, that really was what drove our decision to come off the comparative raters. Other than that, most of those actions are things that we do in the normal course that we're being a bit more aggressive on in places where profitability is challenged. But again, in most jurisdictions, we're comfortable, we're either getting or going to get the rate we think we need, and focused on that and letting the growth come through. So that's really what I was trying to reflect there, if that makes sense.

因此，尤其是在這兩個州，這確實是促使我們決定退出比較評估者的原因。除此之外，大多數這些行動都是我們在正常過程中所做的事情，我們在盈利能力受到挑戰的地方會更加積極。但同樣，在大多數司法管轄區，我們感到很自在，我們要么達到或將要達到我們認為需要的速度，並專注於這一點，讓增長得以實現。所以這就是我試圖在那裡反映的，如果這有意義的話。

Got you. Yes, that makes sense. And then, Alan, a bigger picture question. I may have asked this before, but just maybe remind us, Travelers' obviously a phenomenal standard commercial lines carrier. But just looking at what happened with Hurricane Ian and the complexities of risk that continue to emerge. Give us your thoughts on where The Travelers need to be more active or in the excess and surplus lines market, if there's opportunities for you all there to maybe grow or do something?

得到你。是的，這是有道理的。然後，艾倫，一個更大的問題。我以前可能問過這個問題，但也許只是提醒我們，旅行者顯然是一個非凡的標準商業航線運營商。但只要看看伊恩颶風發生的事情以及不斷出現的風險的複雜性。告訴我們您對 The Travelers 需要在哪些方面更加活躍或在超額和超額線路市場中的想法，是否有機會讓你們所有人成長或做點什麼？

Yes. Thanks for that, Brian. So 2 different questions. Do we need to be -- no. I think we've got all the tools in the toolkit to be successful. So it's something we need to do there. Is it an opportunity? Sure, it could be. And I would just start by saying we already have meaningful E&S capabilities. So we've got our Northfield business. We've got a Lloyd's franchise. We've got E&S capabilities in our core business. We probably write a 1/4 of our National Property business on E&S paper. We're doing a lot in our management liability business through E&S.

是的。謝謝你，布賴恩。所以2個不同的問題。我們需要——不。我認為我們已經擁有工具包中的所有工具來取得成功。所以這是我們需要在那裡做的事情。是機會嗎？當然，它可能是。我首先要說的是，我們已經擁有有意義的 E&S 能力。所以我們有我們的諾斯菲爾德業務。我們有勞合社專營權。我們在核心業務中擁有 E&S 能力。我們可能將 1/4 的國家財產業務寫在 E&S 紙上。我們通過 E&S 在管理責任業務中做了很多工作。

So we've got a lot of E&S capability and the ability to be creative inside our -- many of our admitted products too. And so we've got a lot of flexibility to do what we want to do. So often, if we lose an opportunity to the E&S market, it's often because we don't like the risk reward equation, not because we can't do it. Having said that, over time, could there be opportunities for us to strategically expand in E&S. Sure, there could be. It's not anything that we feel like we can't be successful in creating shareholder value. We've got a terrific business model, and we're very comfortable with it. But sure, there could be more opportunity.

因此，我們擁有很多 E&S 能力和在我們的內部進行創新的能力——我們承認的許多產品也是如此。所以我們有很大的靈活性來做我們想做的事。很多時候，如果我們失去了進入 E&S 市場的機會，通常是因為我們不喜歡風險回報等式，而不是因為我們做不到。話雖如此，隨著時間的推移，我們是否有機會在 E&S 進行戰略性擴張。當然，可能有。這並不是我們認為我們無法成功創造股東價值的任何事情。我們有一個了不起的商業模式，我們對此非常滿意。但可以肯定的是，可能會有更多機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

Yes. Changing gears a little bit, maybe a question for David and Daniel. Is there any thoughts about crystallizing some investment losses for an opportunity of redeploying the capital at a higher yield? Is there any penalty for doing that? How do you think about redeployment prematurely selling a bond at this point in time?

是的。稍微改變一下，也許是大衛和丹尼爾的問題。是否有任何關於明確一些投資損失的想法，以便有機會以更高的收益率重新部署資本？這樣做有什麼懲罰嗎？您如何看待此時過早出售債券的重新部署？

Josh, it's Dan. I'll start, and I think Dave Roland is on the line and Dave can jump in as well. Look, other than really selectively selling individual securities that we think are at a position where it would make sense to sell them, and we could redeploy the money in a new preferable instrument, that's not really been part of our strategy. We're taking a long-term view of how we manage a very high-quality asset portfolio. Again, the unrealized loss doesn't cause us any concern.

喬希，是丹。我先開始，我認為 Dave Roland 已經上線，Dave 也可以加入。看，除了真正有選擇地出售我們認為可以出售的個別證券之外，我們可以將資金重新部署到新的更可取的工具中，這並不是我們戰略的一部分。我們對如何管理一個非常高質量的資產組合採取長遠的眼光。同樣，未實現的損失不會引起我們任何擔憂。

If we think there was significant economic value available, that's where you're going to see us make some trades. But for us, that's a very small percentage of the portfolio. I would simply say that don't expect to see us make a [wholesale] turnover of the portfolio to realize a bunch of losses and then take higher yields on the money going forward. I think economically, that's sort of a wash, and we're looking at what's best for the company from an economic perspective.

如果我們認為有可觀的經濟價值，那您就會看到我們進行一些交易。但對我們來說，這只是投資組合的一小部分。我只想說，不要指望我們會通過 [批發] 投資組合的營業額來實現大量虧損，然後在未來獲得更高的收益。我認為從經濟上講，這有點洗禮，我們正在從經濟角度研究對公司最有利的方法。

All right. And another easy question. Historically, you guys have done a wonderful job of being fairly conservative about your catastrophe picks early on and they've generally matured favorably as time has gone on. When you have prior year favorable reserve development on a catastrophe, does that show up in your P&L as a negative cat? Or as prior year development?

好的。還有一個簡單的問題。從歷史上看，你們在早期對災難選擇相當保守方面做得很好，隨著時間的推移，它們通常已經成熟得很好。當您在前一年對災難進行有利的儲備開發時，這是否會在您的損益表中顯示為負貓？還是作為前一年的發展？

It shows as prior year reserve development.

它顯示為上一年的儲備開發。

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

First question, I think, is for Michael, where you've talked about states where you're either at adequacy or you have line of sight. When you talk about anticipating double-digit premium increases in 2023, and we combine that with the policy in force growth that we've seen so far this year. Can we infer that you'll underwrite business that's not adequately priced now if there is line of sight to adequate pricing?

我認為，第一個問題是針對邁克爾的，你已經談到了你處於充分或有視線的狀態。當您談到預計 2023 年保費將出現兩位數增長時，我們將其與今年迄今為止看到的強制增長政策相結合。如果有足夠的定價，我們是否可以推斷您將承保現在定價不足的業務？

Yes. Thanks, Meyer. Good question. I mean, I think -- the way I would just describe it, let me parse it out, right? So you're looking at RPC numbers in the production highlights, that reflect the written impact of the rate that we've taken on the renewal book as the policies renew. And so the first point I'd make is when you're looking at those numbers, they're a bit of a lagging indicator of the price that we've actually gotten filed and approved with the departments of insurance. And so when I describe the outlook that says that we believe we're going to be adequate in most states that reflect the majority of our business by midyear next year.

是的。謝謝，邁耶。好問題。我的意思是，我認為 - 我只是描述它的方式，讓我解析出來，對吧？因此，您正在查看生產亮點中的 RPC 數字，它反映了我們在更新政策時對更新書採取的費率的書面影響。所以我要說的第一點是，當你查看這些數字時，它們是我們實際向保險部門提交並批准的價格的一個滯後指標。因此，當我描述的前景表明，我們相信在明年年中之前反映我們大部分業務的大多數州我們將是足夠的。

I'm talking about that written price level at the point in time we get that rate approval. And again, what I would say is if we're confident that we're going to get the rates to where we want them to be, then yes, we'll renew business in the ordinary course and will continue to be open for new business, again, in most jurisdictions where we have that confidence. And by the way, in most jurisdictions, that next rate increase is a single-digit number. So it's not that we're talking about a significant number of places where we're double-digit rate away from adequacy.

我說的是我們獲得該利率批准時的書面價格水平。再說一次，我要說的是，如果我們有信心將費率提高到我們希望的水平，那麼是的，我們將在正常過程中更新業務，並將繼續對新業務開放再次，在我們有信心的大多數司法管轄區開展業務。順便說一句，在大多數司法管轄區，下一次加息是個位數。所以這並不是說我們在談論很多地方我們距離充足率還有兩位數的差距。

In fact, the 8.5% increase in the 26 states, that average increase across 26 states that I talked about this quarter, Most of those states are additional increases on top of increases we've already gotten. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of a flavor for both our philosophy, but also in places where we aren't necessarily adequate sort of how far away we think we are.

事實上，26 個州的增長 8.5%，即我本季度談到的 26 個州的平均增長，這些州中的大多數是我們已經獲得的增長之上的額外增長。因此，希望這能讓您對我們的理念有所了解，但也可以在我們認為我們離我們有多遠的地方，我們不一定足夠。

Yes, that was very thorough, very helpful. And then a question for Alan. I know it's early in the process of Florida getting its act together. Is there any receptivity to having the legislative reforms that you've talked about?

是的，這非常徹底，非常有幫助。然後問艾倫一個問題。我知道現在是佛羅里達州採取行動的早期階段。對你所說的立法改革有任何接受嗎？

Receptivity in the State of Florida?

佛羅里達州的接受度？

Yes, among the legislature.

是的，在立法機關中。

I'm probably not the right person to speak on behalf of the Florida legislature. I do think that there's recognition that there's an issue there. And -- and in recent months, they have made some progress. I think probably not enough. But I suspect they're getting to a point where something's got to give, but I certainly shouldn't speak on behalf of them.

我可能不是代表佛羅里達州立法機關發言的合適人選。我確實認為人們認識到那裡存在問題。而且——最近幾個月，他們取得了一些進展。我想可能還不夠。但我懷疑他們已經到了必須付出的地步，但我當然不應該代表他們發言。

Okay. No, it's asking from your perspective, but I understand.

好的。不，這是從你的角度問的，但我理解。

The answer is I hope so.

答案是我希望如此。

Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui。

Dan, following up on your comments about reinsurance pricing and capacity constraints. So on a (inaudible) perspective, when you were choosing reinsurance partners, I assume you're looking at balance sheet strength. In doing so, are you excluding unrealized losses on investments? Or are you looking through that as you determine who participates on your panel and deserve -- and also to determine their related participation.

丹，跟進您對再保險定價和容量限制的評論。因此，從（聽不清）的角度來看，當您選擇再保險合作夥伴時，我假設您正在考慮資產負債表的實力。在此過程中，您是否排除了未實現的投資損失？或者，當您確定誰參與您的小組並應得的 - 以及確定他們的相關參與時，您是否正在仔細研究。

I would say, Tracy, we're looking at the long-term economic viability of our trading partners and the likelihood and confidence that we're going to get collected. So to the degree that if someone else is in an unrealized loss position for a similar reason that we're in an unrealized loss position, meaning it is not credit driven. It is not investment portfolio quality driven It is nothing other than a function of the change in interest rates, which will definitively will reverse itself over time. Then from an economic value perspective, I think for the most part, we're going to look through that.

我想說，特蕾西，我們正在關注我們貿易夥伴的長期經濟可行性，以及我們將被收集的可能性和信心。因此，如果其他人出於與我們處於未實現虧損頭寸類似的原因而處於未實現虧損頭寸的程度，這意味著它不是信貸驅動的。它不是由投資組合質量驅動的，它只不過是利率變化的函數，隨著時間的推移，利率最終會自行逆轉。然後從經濟價值的角度來看，我認為在大多數情況下，我們將仔細研究。

Very helpful. When I first heard of your objective using 90% of your property claims within 30 days, I was thinking, gee, that could really contain Lost Creek But is there anything on the litigation side or regulatory side in Florida, given Alan, your public policy announcement that could impede your ability to meet that objective as it relates to Ian specifically?

非常有幫助。當我第一次聽說你的目標是在 30 天內使用 90% 的財產索賠時，我在想，天哪，這可能真的包含 Lost Creek 但是在佛羅里達州的訴訟方面或監管方面有什麼東西，考慮到艾倫，你的公共政策可能會阻礙您實現該目標的能力的公告，因為它特別與伊恩有關？

I think right now, Tracy, we feel pretty good about our ability to get to that level. And in fact, it's -- we've had that objective in place for several years and we're routinely successful in meeting that objective. And there's always litigation of one sort or another. And so I don't -- I would expect that we'll get there. We're not there yet. So who knows, but I would expect we'll get there.

我認為現在，特蕾西，我們對自己達到那個水平的能力感覺很好。事實上，我們已經制定了這個目標好幾年了，而且我們經常成功地實現這個目標。而且總是有這樣或那樣的訴訟。所以我不 - 我希望我們會到達那裡。我們還沒有。所以誰知道呢，但我希望我們會到達那裡。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

I guess a little color on the bonded specialty outlook would be wonderful. Is there any reason why either business mix change or anything that's changing that business the underwriting performance shouldn't somewhat track sort of economic and credit quality. I think of that as a credit business, but maybe things have changed.

我想保稅專業前景上的一點顏色會很棒。是否有任何理由說明業務組合發生變化或發生任何改變業務的因素，承保業績不應該在某種程度上跟踪經濟和信用質量。我認為這是一項信貸業務，但也許情況已經改變。

Yes. This is Jeff, Paul. Thanks for the question. Mike, we don't give a lot of outlook relative to the Bond & Specialty business, but I would reemphasize what you said, it is a credit business. We feel really good about the underlying profitability of both the surety and the management liability components of that business, and we continue to invest for growth. So I'd probably leave it at that and -- thanks for the question.

是的。這是傑夫，保羅。謝謝你的問題。邁克，相對於債券和特種業務，我們沒有給出很多前景，但我會再次強調你所說的，這是一項信貸業務。我們對該業務的擔保和管理責任部分的潛在盈利能力感到非常滿意，我們將繼續投資以實現增長。所以我可能會把它留在那裡 - 謝謝你的問題。

I guess, Paul, the other thing I would add is you could go back to the 2008 financial crisis, you could go back to the pandemic. I mean this portfolio has been challenged in other difficult credit environments and it's performed extraordinarily well. And it's the -- it's the same underwriting philosophy. It's the same tools, it's the same, et cetera. And so we don't look at this -- if you're thinking we could be in for a bumpy economic times ahead. We agree with that, but we're confident in this business and the way we manage it.

我想，保羅，我要補充的另一件事是你可以回到 2008 年的金融危機，你可以回到大流行。我的意思是，這個投資組合在其他困難的信貸環境中也受到了挑戰，並且表現非常出色。這是 - 這是相同的承保理念。它是相同的工具，是相同的，等等。所以我們不考慮這個——如果你認為我們可能會進入一個顛簸的經濟時代。我們同意這一點，但我們對這項業務及其管理方式充滿信心。

No. I agree, it's an extraordinary track record. I'm just wondering, any profitability that is unique even for what Travelers has seen in the past. So I'm not actually suggesting that it could be a (inaudible) quarter. I'm just thinking whether or not the current sustained extraordinary profitability is sustainable. But the second question, I wanted to ask about the just cat exposures in general.

不，我同意，這是一個非凡的記錄。我只是想知道，即使是 Travelers 過去看到的任何盈利能力都是獨一無二的。所以我實際上並不是在暗示這可能是一個（聽不清的）季度。我只是在想，目前持續的超常盈利能力是否可持續。但第二個問題，我想問一下一般的貓曝光。

I was kind of looking back over many years, and it looks like there was -- it looks like there might have been a reduction in kind of your general view of exposures of cats and what you want to take on relative to your business in total. But there's been so much noise in the last 3 years that it's hard to tell if that's really the case. And obviously, we have to have sort of an expectation of normalized cat load. But are you essentially not changing this stuff is your sort of appetite for cat exposure. And I really want to talk not just next quarter, but over years, has the appetite changed at all at Travelers?

我回顧了很多年，看起來有 - 看起來你對貓的暴露的一般看法以及相對於你的業務你想要承擔的總體看法可能有所減少.但在過去的 3 年裡，噪音太大了，很難說是否真的如此。顯然，我們必須對標準化的貓負荷有某種期望。但是你基本上沒有改變這些東西是你對貓暴露的胃口。而且我真的很想談論的不僅僅是下個季度，而是多年來，旅行者的胃口是否發生了變化？

Not really, Paul. When -- when we think about our -- I mean, we write plenty of cat-exposed business, and there hasn't been a really significant overall portfolio level shift. I mean, certainly, we found some geographies more attractive than others, and we've moved capital around from that perspective. But we haven't -- in a meaningful wholesale way withdrawn from cat exposure nor do we feel the need to do that going forward.

不是真的，保羅。當 - 當我們考慮我們的 - 我的意思是，我們寫了大量的貓暴露業務，並且沒有真正顯著的整體投資組合水平轉變。我的意思是，當然，我們發現某些地區比其他地區更具吸引力，並且我們從這個角度轉移了資金。但我們還沒有——以一種有意義的批發方式從貓暴露中退出，我們也不覺得有必要在未來這樣做。

We've been -- I think, going back probably 5 years, taking a very thoughtful approach to taking a step back and we've put dedicated teams in place for every peril, and our objective was to be the leader in understanding the signs behind that peril and the underwriting around that peril and also to develop extraordinarily claim handling capabilities for those events. And I think that's really what's paid off for us. I don't think it's been a meaningful withdrawal from the exposure.

我們一直 - 我認為，可能追溯到 5 年前，採取了一種非常周到的方法來退後一步，我們已經為每一次危險都設立了專門的團隊，我們的目標是成為理解跡象的領導者在該風險和圍繞該風險的承保背後，並為這些事件開發非凡的索賠處理能力。我認為這確實為我們帶來了回報。我不認為這是一個有意義的退出曝光。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Phillips。

I guess this question, given all the comments that Dan made in the opening comments about Property cat and reinsurance pricing. Maybe answers here would be more on an industry level, what you think the industry does, but if you want to put in what you do, that's fine too. But theoretically, if we're paying more for Property cat reinsurance, will that translate into us charging more for our BI Casualty business? Is it known because look they are separate businesses, yes, it's cost of on business? Or is there kind of some threshold that maybe we kind of met those over into casual primary book what we charge there. I know you downplayed the impact on profit account reinsurance for you guys, but maybe your own views there or what you think the industry might do there?

鑑於丹在開場評論中關於財產貓和再保險定價的所有評論，我想這個問題。也許這裡的答案更多地是在行業層面上，你認為這個行業做了什麼，但如果你想把你所做的事情放進去，那也沒關係。但從理論上講，如果我們為 Property cat 再保險支付更多費用，這是否會轉化為我們對 BI Casualty 業務收取更多費用？是否因為看起來它們是獨立的業務而聞名，是的，這是業務成本？或者是否有某種門檻，也許我們會遇到那些進入我們在那裡收費的休閒初級書籍的門檻。我知道你淡化了對你們利潤賬戶再保險的影響，但也許是你自己的觀點，或者你認為該行業可能會在那裡做什麼？

I'm looking at Greg, I do think that every product of exposure sort of stands on its own. But at the same time, I think there's an overall psyche in the market and a reaction to the overall level of risk that we perceive in the marketplace. And so is there some of that, that carries over? And to what extent the reinsurance pricing carries over, we'll find out, but it may be that, that's a contributor to casualty pricing moving up a little bit. But I think on the whole, I would expect these lines to stand on their own, Greg?

我在看格雷格，我確實認為每一種曝光產品都是獨立的。但與此同時，我認為市場存在整體心理，並對我們在市場上感知的整體風險水平做出反應。那麼是否有一些，可以延續？再保險定價在多大程度上延續，我們會發現，但這可能是傷亡定價略微上漲的一個因素。但我認為總的來說，我希望這些台詞能夠獨立存在，格雷格？

Yes, I think that's the case also, Alan. And that really will be reinsurer by reinsurer. If they think about account pricing or individual line. But to Alan's point, I think most are so disciplined, they're going to be looking at the line. And just as a reminder, casualty has its own headwinds with social inflation. And the reinsurers certainly have been addressing some of that incremental risk as we have on the growth side also.

是的，我認為也是如此，艾倫。這真的將是一個再保險公司的再保險公司。如果他們考慮帳戶定價或個人行。但就艾倫的觀點而言，我認為大多數人都非常自律，他們會看著這條線。提醒一下，傷亡對社會通貨膨脹有其自身的不利影響。再保險公司當然一直在解決一些增量風險，就像我們在增長方面也一樣。

That's a good point, Greg.

這是一個很好的觀點，格雷格。

Okay. Yes. That makes sense. And second, I guess, there's been so much talk obviously on the headlines from personal auto. But I guess could you say what you're seeing on the commercial side of auto, in terms of loss trends there and kind of where rate adequacy is today?

好的。是的。那講得通。其次，我想，關於個人汽車的頭條新聞顯然有很多討論。但我想你能說說你在汽車商業方面看到的情況嗎？就那裡的損失趨勢和今天的利率充足率而言？

Yes. Sure. Michael, we're making good progress overall on the auto. In terms of your question relative to personal auto, we're certainly not immune from some of the severity challenges Michael and his team are experiencing. And you can think of 2 cohorts of vehicles on commercial, private passenger light vehicles, I think light trucks, vans and that sort and then you have the heavy vehicles.

是的。當然。邁克爾，我們在汽車方面總體上取得了不錯的進展。就您與個人汽車相關的問題而言，我們當然不能倖免於邁克爾和他的團隊正在經歷的一些嚴峻挑戰。你可以想到商業、私人乘用輕型車輛上的 2 組車輛，我認為輕型卡車、貨車等，然後你就有重型車輛。

And so we're seeing a little more of that severity pressure on that first cohort that has some of the same supply and demand dynamics that Michael's feel in. But we're continuing to make good progress on pricing and underwriting. And as I shared at the recent Investor Day, we're bringing out a new auto product that we think is going to be really segmented and help us with our prospects even more.

因此，我們看到第一個隊列面臨更多的嚴重壓力，這些壓力與邁克爾所感受到的一些相同的供需動態。但我們在定價和承保方面繼續取得良好進展。正如我在最近的投資者日上分享的那樣，我們正在推出一種新的汽車產品，我們認為該產品將真正被細分，並為我們的前景提供更多幫助。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First one I had for you is just a high-level question on loss costs. And I was just interested in your updated views on how -- what we're seeing in CPI inflation and how that translates to actual insurance claims inflation for the business insurance business. And just as that's evolving, things like medical cost inflation, not running away from this or something, but beginning to take up a little more -- are you having to evolve your view of those things in a bigger way? Or do you still view that as CPI prints getting worse, not really fully translate into insurance claims costs?

我為您準備的第一個問題只是關於損失成本的高級問題。我只是對您對我們在 CPI 通脹中所看到的以及如何轉化為商業保險業務的實際保險索賠通脹的最新觀點感興趣。隨著這種情況的發展，諸如醫療成本膨脹之類的事情，並沒有逃避這個或其他事情，而是開始佔據更多——你是否必須以更大的方式發展你對這些事情的看法？還是您仍然認為隨著 CPI 數據的惡化，並沒有真正完全轉化為保險理賠成本？

Yes. Alex, we are always evaluating that practically on a daily basis, and we did increase our severity trend assumptions back in the first quarter. And when we did that, we did that with a degree of caution knowing that there was a fair amount of uncertainty out there. And what we've seen subsequent to that in the second quarter and again this quarter, was consistent with those expectations. So it's not that we're not seeing or feeling that severity coming through.

是的。亞歷克斯，我們實際上每天都在評估這一點，我們確實在第一季度增加了我們的嚴重性趨勢假設。當我們這樣做時，我們在一定程度上謹慎地這樣做，因為我們知道那裡存在相當多的不確定性。我們在第二季度和本季度之後看到的情況與這些預期一致。所以這並不是說我們沒有看到或感受到這種嚴重性。

We are, but it's within the expectations that we established back in the first quarter. Now as it relates to medical inflation, you can't really focus on the medical CPI because where workers' comp is different, right? We're treating workplace injuries. We're not treating chronic diseases. So the components of medical inflation that impact worker's comp are probably inflating at a lower rate than the overall medical CPI. And my comment on overall workers' comp loss trend is that it continues to be benign.

我們是，但這在我們在第一季度建立的預期之內。現在因為它與醫療通脹有關，你不能真正關注醫療 CPI，因為工人的薪酬不同，對吧？我們正在治療工傷。我們不是在治療慢性病。因此，影響工人薪酬的醫療通脹組成部分的通脹率可能低於整體醫療 CPI。我對整體工人薪酬損失趨勢的評論是，它仍然是良性的。

Got it. That's helpful. And final question I had is on the unit exposure increases. I'd imagine that the sort of real unit exposure increases is the economy strength and maybe help you a little more than just the insured value inflation sort of impact. As I think through price rate back in -- or the unit exposure acting [as] rate. I mean, can you help me think as we approach periods of time where you're lapping pretty strong economic growth, I mean, do the benefits that you get from unit exposure increases begin to erode. And is that so far enough out in the future that it's not a concern for now as we head into next year? Or is that something we need to think harder about as we get to sort of 1Q, 2Q next year?

知道了。這很有幫助。最後一個問題是關於單位曝光增加的問題。我想實際單位風險增加的那種是經濟實力，可能對你的幫助不僅僅是保險價值通脹的影響。正如我認為通過價格回歸 - 或單位風險承擔[作為]利率。我的意思是，你能幫我想想，當我們接近經濟增長強勁的時期時，我的意思是，你從單位敞口增加中獲得的好處是否開始受到侵蝕。在我們進入明年的時候，這是否足夠遠，以至於現在不是一個問題？或者當我們進入明年的第一季度、第二季度時，我們需要更加努力地思考這個問題嗎？

So I'm not sure that I exactly get the question, Alex, but I'll make a few comments, and if I don't get to the answer that you're looking for, let me know. But as we shared many times over more than a decade, exposure growth does contribute to margins. And there's 2 types of -- really 2 types of exposure growth. There's [true] unit growth, and then there's inflation. And in particular, the inflation side of exposure is a more meaningful contributor to margin than true unit growth because that unit growth does come with some risk content. I do think the unit growth also contributes to margins, by the way, but not at the same level that inflation does.

所以我不確定我是否完全得到了這個問題，Alex，但我會發表一些評論，如果我沒有得到你正在尋找的答案，請告訴我。但正如我們十多年來多次分享的那樣，曝光增長確實有助於利潤率。有兩種類型——實際上是兩種類型的曝光增長。有[真正的]單位增長，然後是通貨膨脹。特別是，與真實單位增長相比，風險敞口的通脹方面對利潤率的貢獻更有意義，因為單位增長確實帶有一些風險內容。順便說一句，我確實認為單位增長也有助於提高利潤率，但與通貨膨脹的水平不同。

And so -- to the extent that continues to come in, and we'll see what happens with the economy and we'll see what happens to exposure over time. But to the extent that does come in, it will continue to contribute to margins. Is that helpful?

所以 - 在繼續進入的範圍內，我們將看到經濟會發生什麼，我們會看到隨著時間的推移會發生什麼。但就確實出現的情況而言，它將繼續為利潤率做出貢獻。這有幫助嗎？

Yes, that does clarify. Thank you for entertaining the question. Appreciate it.

是的，這確實澄清了。感謝您提出問題。欣賞它。

And your final question comes from the line of Michael Ward from Citi.

您的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Michael Ward。

Just last one on workers' comp. Growth tailed off a bit in 3Q. Just wondering if there was anything to read into there from a macro perspective. And I guess, wondering along those lines, to what extent did -- would you say mix contributed to your rate acceleration in 3Q?

只是工人補償的最後一個。第三季度增長略有放緩。只是想知道從宏觀的角度來看是否有什麼可以讀到的。我猜想，沿著這些思路，你會說混合在多大程度上促進了你在第三季度的利率加速？

Michael, Greg. Yes, there wasn't really any material change in workers' comp for this quarter across business insurance. As Alan said, it has continued to be the laggard in terms of pricing, but again, driven based industry and certainly Travelers' profitability of that line. So no real material change there. Obviously, we're getting some strong exposure growth, and that's why you're getting an overall lift in written premium there. So nothing to look into other than where the run rate has been.

邁克爾，格雷格。是的，本季度整個商業保險的工人薪酬實際上沒有任何重大變化。正如 Alan 所說，它在定價方面仍然落後，但同樣是基於行業的驅動，當然還有 Travelers 在該產品線上的盈利能力。所以那裡沒有真正的材料變化。顯然，我們正在獲得一些強勁的曝光增長，這就是為什麼你在那裡的書面保費整體有所提升。因此，除了運行率在哪里之外，沒有什麼可調查的。

And on your last question, the overall mix was not a contributor in any meaningful way to the overall rate number.

在你的最後一個問題上，整體組合對整體費率數字沒有任何有意義的貢獻。

It was broad-based.

它的基礎廣泛。

And this brings us to the end of our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Abbe Goldstein for some final closing remarks.

這使我們的問答環節結束。我現在將把電話轉回給 Abbe Goldstein 做一些最後的閉幕詞。

Thank you all very much. We appreciate your time this morning. And as always, if there's any follow-up, please reach out directly to Investor Relations. Have a good day.

非常感謝大家。我們感謝您今天早上的時間。與往常一樣，如果有任何後續行動，請直接聯繫投資者關係部。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。