Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Rivian 討論了 2023 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議,強調了生產和成本效率方面的關鍵發展、挑戰和進展。他們專注於推出 R2,瞄準中型 SUV 細分市場並提高品牌知名度。

該公司報告了關鍵價值驅動因素的進展,並計劃在 2024 年降低成本並提高效率。他們的重點是客戶滿意度、擴大產能,並透過成本改善和收入流來推動獲利。

Rivian 對未來軟體支援的服務持樂觀態度,並積極致力於降低材料成本和供應鏈停工,以實現盈虧平衡的毛利率。他們還推出了標準包,以滿足對價格敏感的客戶的需求,並提高其高價型號的知名度。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Rivian Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Rivian 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)。請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Tim Bei, Vice President of Investor Relations.

    現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人,投資者關係副總裁 Tim Bei。

  • Timothy Francis Bei - VP of IR

    Timothy Francis Bei - VP of IR

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Rivian's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. Before we begin, matters discussed on this call, including comments and responses to questions, reflect management's views as of today.

    下午好,感謝您參加 Rivian 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。在我們開始之前,本次電話會議討論的事項(包括評論和問題答案)反映了管理層截至目前的觀點。

  • We will also be making statements related to our business, operations and financial performance that may be considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are described in our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter.

    我們還將做出與我們的業務、營運和財務表現相關的聲明,根據聯邦證券法,這些聲明可能被視為前瞻性聲明。此類陳述涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果有重大差異。我們向 SEC 提交的文件和今天的股東信中描述了這些風險和不確定性。

  • During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in our shareholder letter. Just before the call, we published our shareholder letter, which includes an overview of our progress over the recent months. I encourage you to read it for additional details around some of the items we'll cover on today's call.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。我們的股東信中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。就在電話會議之前,我們發布了股東信,其中概述了我們最近幾個月的進展。我鼓勵您閱讀它,以了解我們將在今天的電話會議中討論的一些項目的更多詳細資訊。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to RJ who will begin with a few opening remarks.

    接下來,我將把電話轉給 RJ,他將首先做一些開場白。

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Thanks, Tim. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. During our call, I will highlight key developments during the fourth quarter, provide an update on the progress we're making against our value drivers and discuss steps Rivian is taking to adapt to evolving market conditions in our industry.

    謝謝,蒂姆。大家好,感謝您今天加入我們。在我們的電話會議中,我將重點介紹第四季度的主要進展,提供我們在價值驅動因素方面取得的最新進展,並討論 Rivian 為適應行業不斷變化的市場狀況而採取的步驟。

  • Before I dive in, as part of our ongoing focus on driving cost efficiency, we announced internally today the difficult decision to reduce the number of salaried employees by approximately 10%. These difficult decisions, among other initiatives I plan to discuss, enable us to maximize the amount of impact we can have as a company.

    在我深入探討之前,作為我們持續關注提高成本效率的一部分,我們今天在內部宣布了一項艱難的決定,將受薪員工人數減少約 10%。這些艱難的決定,以及我計劃討論的其他舉措,使我們能夠最大限度地發揮公司的影響力。

  • We hold the deep conviction that the entire automotive industry will electrify over the long term. This means, as an industry, replacing roughly 1.5 billion internal combustion passenger cars across the planet over the next couple of decades. Rivian's mission is to accelerate this transition. A major goal with the launch of R1 was to build a brand that deeply resonates with customers.

    我們堅信,從長遠來看,整個汽車產業將實現電氣化。這意味著,作為一個產業,未來幾十年將在全球更換約 15 億輛內燃乘用車。 Rivian 的使命是加速這一轉變。 R1推出的一個主要目標是打造一個能與顧客產生深刻共鳴的品牌。

  • Beyond our active owner groups and the R1S being the top-selling EV in the U.S. priced over $70,000, an owner satisfaction survey conducted by consumer reports showed Rivian as the #1 automotive brand with the highest likelihood for customers to purchase again. We intend to harness this brand strength as we launch R2, which will be unveiling on March 7. R2 represents the essence of our brand while targeting the significant midsized SUV segment, a massive market with limited compelling EV options beyond Tesla.

    除了我們活躍的車主群體和 R1S 是美國最暢銷的售價超過 70,000 美元的電動車之外,消費者報告進行的車主滿意度調查顯示,Rivian 是客戶再次購買可能性最高的第一汽車品牌。我們打算利用這一品牌優勢推出R2,該產品將於3 月7 日發布。R2 代表了我們品牌的精髓,同時瞄準了重要的中型SUV 細分市場,這是一個巨大的市場,除了特斯拉之外,引人注目的電動車選擇有限。

  • R2 has been developed with vertically integrated propulsion platforms, electronics and software to create an incredible user experience. Our team is laser focused on the factors within our control that will drive Rivian's long-term value. These include driving cost efficiency, optimizing our production deliveries, investing in differentiating technologies, enhancing the Rivian customer experience and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

    R2 採用垂直整合的推進平台、電子設備和軟體開發,旨在創造令人難以置信的使用者體驗。我們的團隊專注於我們控制範圍內的因素,這些因素將推動 Rivian 的長期價值。其中包括提高成本效率、優化我們的生產交付、投資差異化技術、增強 Rivian 客戶體驗以及維持強勁的資產負債表。

  • The progress we've made ramping production and driving greater cost efficiency was significant in 2023. During the full year, we more than doubled production and deliveries and exceeded our initial production guidance by more than 7,000 vehicles. The team achieved this while also successfully managing complex integration of new engineering design changes, including our in-house drive units for both the EDV and R1 platforms, LFP battery packs for EDV and new vehicle variants such as our Max pack.

    2023 年,我們在提高產量和提高成本效率方面取得的進展非常顯著。全年,我們的產量和交付量增加了一倍多,比最初的產量指導目標高出 7,000 多輛。該團隊實現了這一目標,同時還成功管理了新工程設計變更的複雜集成,包括我們用於EDV 和R1 平台的內部驅動單元、用於EDV 的磷酸鐵鋰電池組以及Max 電池組等新車型。

  • Ramping production and introducing new technologies across multiple vehicle platforms has presented challenges, but importantly, our team has gained significant learnings in a compressed time frame. This experience will be foundational as we execute against our 2024 plan.

    在多個車輛平台上提高產量和引入新技術帶來了挑戰,但重要的是,我們的團隊在壓縮的時間內獲得了重要的經驗教訓。這些經驗將為我們執行 2024 年計畫奠定基礎。

  • We took significant steps towards driving greater efficiency in 2023. Gross profit per vehicle improved by approximately $81,000 when comparing the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2022. As we start 2024, I want to emphasize our team's continued sense of urgency and ownership mindset in driving further efficiency throughout the organization.

    我們在2023 年提高效率方面採取了重大舉措。與2023 年第四季和2022 年第四季相比,每輛車的毛利提高了約81,000 美元。在2024 年伊始,我想強調我們團隊持續的緊迫感和主人翁意識推動整個組織進一步提高效率的心態。

  • During our second quarter shutdown, we plan to incorporate additional material cost downs with the integration of new design and engineering changes in the R1 platform, deliver further supplier cost reductions, capture the flow-through of commodity price improvements and further optimize our manufacturing expenses. We believe these steps position us to achieve modest gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2024.

    在第二季停工期間,我們計劃透過在 R1 平台中整合新設計和工程變更來進一步降低材料成本,進一步降低供應商成本,抓住商品價格改善的影響,並進一步優化我們的製造費用。我們相信這些步驟將使我們能夠在 2024 年第四季實現適度的毛利。

  • As we start 2024, I want to address the broader industry context, which I referred to during our third quarter call. Our business is not immune to existing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, most notably the impact of historically high interest rates, which has negatively impact demand. In this fluid environment, we appreciate the expressed interest in demand visibility from the investment community.

    在 2024 年伊始,我想談談我在第三季電話會議中提到的更廣泛的行業背景。我們的業務無法免受現有經濟和地緣政治不確定性的影響,最明顯的是歷史高利率的影響,這對需求產生了負面影響。在這種瞬息萬變的環境中,我們感謝投資界對需求可見度所表現出的興趣。

  • The conversion of orders to sales can be impacted by several factors, including delivery timing, location of order, monthly payments and customer readiness. Our order bank has notably reduced over time as deliveries have more than doubled in 2023 versus 2022, along with the impact of cancellations due to both the macro environment and the customer factors I just referenced.

    訂單轉化為銷售可能受到多種因素的影響,包括交貨時間、訂單地點、每月付款和客戶準備。隨著時間的推移,我們的訂單庫顯著減少,因為 2023 年的交付量比 2022 年增加了一倍多,再加上宏觀環境和我剛才提到的客戶因素導致的取消的影響。

  • For 2024, we expect our total deliveries to be derived from our existing backlog as well as new orders generated during the year. Our key focus is on increasing demand to achieve our 2024 delivery targets.

    2024 年,我們預計總交貨量將來自現有積壓訂單以及年內產生的新訂單。我們的重點是增加需求,以實現 2024 年的交付目標。

  • Our go-to-market strategy is built on growing brand awareness, enabling our direct-to-consumer experience and importantly, providing more opportunities for consumers to experience our award-winning R1T and R1S vehicles firsthand. We are scaling our Rivian spaces program, which are equivalent of retail locations. And today, we have 11 sites open across North America, most of which have opened in the last 6 months.

    我們的進入市場策略建立在不斷提高的品牌知名度之上,從而實現我們的直接面向消費者的體驗,更重要的是,為消費者提供更多機會來親身體驗我們屢獲殊榮的R1T 和R1S 車輛。我們正在擴大 Rivian 空間計劃,該計劃相當於零售店。如今,我們在北美地區開設了 11 個站點,其中大部分是在過去 6 個月內開設的。

  • These sites have garnered over 130,000 visitors so far in 2024. Complementing our spaces footprint are more than 50 service centers serve as another location for current and potential customers to experience our vehicles. We provided over 13,000 demo drives already in the first quarter and consider this to be one of our key demand building strategies.

    截至 2024 年,這些網站已吸引了超過 130,000 名訪客。除了我們的空間足跡之外,還有 50 多個服務中心,作為當前和潛在客戶體驗我們車輛的另一個地點。我們在第一季已經提供了超過 13,000 個演示驅動器,並認為這是我們的關鍵需求建立策略之一。

  • We've also expanded the lineup of our vehicles and recently introduced our standard range variant, which provides an accessible price point for more potential Rivian customers. We're encouraged by the early results.

    我們還擴大了車輛陣容,最近推出了標準系列車型,為更多潛在的 Rivian 客戶提供了實惠的價格。我們對早期結果感到鼓舞。

  • The steps we're taking in 2024 will be foundational in positioning Rivian as a leader in the transition to electrification. The opportunity ahead is significant. We're taking deliberate action to drive additional cost efficiency as we continue building our go-to-market capabilities and develop our R2 platform. I would like to thank all of those who continue to support our vision, including employees, customers, partners, suppliers, communities and shareholders.

    我們在 2024 年採取的步驟將為將 Rivian 定位為電氣化轉型的領導者奠定基礎。未來的機會是重大的。在我們繼續建立我們的上市能力並開發我們的 R2 平台的同時,我們正在採取刻意的行動來提高成本效率。我要感謝所有繼續支持我們願景的人,包括員工、客戶、合作夥伴、供應商、社區和股東。

  • With that, I'll pass the call to Claire.

    這樣,我就把電話轉給克萊爾。

  • Claire McDonough - CFO

    Claire McDonough - CFO

  • Thanks, RJ. I'd like to reiterate our excitement for the long-term success of Rivian. Over the course of 2023, we made significant progress in all 4 key value drivers: driving greater cost efficiency, continuing to optimize production and deliveries, investing in differentiated technologies, and continuing to enhance the Rivian customer experience.

    謝謝,RJ。我想重申我們對 Rivian 的長期成功感到興奮。 2023 年,我們在所有 4 個關鍵價值驅動因素方面取得了重大進展:提高成本效率、持續優化生產和交付、投資差異化技術以及持續增強 Rivian 客戶體驗。

  • During the fourth quarter, we produced 17,541 vehicles and delivered 13,972 vehicles, which was the primary driver of the $1.3 billion of revenue we generated. Total revenue for the quarter included $39 million of proceeds from the sale of regulatory credits. We expect the sale of regulatory credits to increase over time, but to vary quarter-to-quarter.

    第四季度,我們生產了 17,541 輛汽車,交付了 13,972 輛汽車,這是我們創造 13 億美元收入的主要推動力。該季度的總收入包括出售監管信貸的收益 3,900 萬美元。我們預計監管信貸的銷售會隨著時間的推移而增加,但每季都會有所不同。

  • For the full year 2023, we produced 57,232 vehicles, which was significantly above our initial guidance of 50,000 vehicles and more than double 2022 production. Total gross profit for the quarter was negative $606 million. Gross profit per vehicle delivered was approximately negative $43,000.

    2023 年全年,我們生產了 57,232 輛汽車,遠高於我們最初設定的 50,000 輛汽車的產量目標,是 2022 年產量的兩倍多。該季度毛利總額為負 6.06 億美元。每輛車交付的毛利約為負 43,000 美元。

  • During the fourth quarter, cost of goods sold were negatively impacted by $70 million of costs primarily associated with our planned 2024 shutdown were approximately $5,000 per vehicle delivered. These costs include supplier-related expenses, accelerated depreciation and other expenses related to the new technology and cost savings design changes going into the R1 platform.

    第四季度,銷售商品成本受到 7,000 萬美元的負面影響,主要與我們計劃的 2024 年停產有關,每輛交付的車輛約為 5,000 美元。這些成本包括與供應商相關的費用、加速折舊以及與新技術相關的其他費用以及進入 R1 平台的成本節約設計變更。

  • While we could incur additional costs associated with the planned shutdown in technology and design changes in the near term, we do not anticipate these costs to be part of our normal course of business in the longer term.

    雖然我們可能會因短期內規劃關閉技術和設計變更而產生額外成本,但我們預計這些成本不會成為我們長期正常業務流程的一部分。

  • During the fourth quarter, we also delivered a higher proportion of consumer vehicles due to Amazon's expected seasonality. For context, the proportion of our total revenue attributed to Amazon was 8% in the fourth quarter of 2023 versus 30% in the third quarter of 2023.

    在第四季度,由於亞馬遜預期的季節性因素,我們也交付了更高比例的消費車輛。就背景而言,2023 年第四季來自亞馬遜的總營收比例為 8%,而 2023 年第三季為 30%。

  • Given our commercial vans have lower material costs due to the technology changes made in 2023, the lower delivery during the quarter negatively impacted our gross margin. In addition, due to this dynamic, the vast majority of the increase in finished goods inventory in the fourth quarter of 2023 was related to commercial vans. Changes in LCNRV and losses on firm purchase commitments benefited our fourth quarter results by $7 million as compared to $106 million in the third quarter of 2023, a difference of approximately $6,300 per delivered unit on a quarter sequential basis.

    由於 2023 年的技術變革,我們的商用貨車的材料成本較低,本季交付量較低對我們的毛利率產生了負面影響。此外,由於這種動態,2023年第四季製成品庫存的成長絕大多數與商用貨車有關。 LCNRV 的變化和確定採購承諾的損失使我們第四季度的業績增加了 700 萬美元,而 2023 年第三季的業績為 1.06 億美元,每交付單位環比差異約為 6,300 美元。

  • Next, I want to help provide more clarity on how we bridge from our fourth quarter 2023 results to where we expect to reach modest gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2024. The largest driver, which represents approximately 50% of the bridge, is our plan to reduce our variable cost per unit. The majority of this will be accomplished through material cost reductions planned as part of our Q2 2024 shutdown. As a reminder, this is through engineering cost reductions such as our ECU and wire harness simplification through our commercially negotiated cost downs and contribution from lower raw material costs.

    接下來,我想幫助更清楚地說明我們如何從2023 年第四季的業績過渡到我們預計在2024 年第四季達到適度毛利的水平。最大的驅動因素,約佔過渡的50%,是我們的計劃降低單位變動成本。其中大部分將透過計劃在 2024 年第二季停工期間削減材料成本來實現。提醒一下,這是透過降低工程成本來實現的,例如透過我們商業談判的成本降低以及原材料成本降低的貢獻來簡化我們的 ECU 和線束。

  • The second driver, representing approximately 35% of the bridge, is through our focus on driving greater efficiency through our production facility. As part of our planned shutdown, we are increasing the R1 line rate by approximately 30% to more efficiently produce vehicles. We also expect to see a benefit from declining LCNRV and firm purchase commitment balances in 2024.

    第二個驅動力約佔橋樑的 35%,是透過我們專注於透過生產設施提高效率來實現的。作為計畫停工的一部分,我們將 R1 生產線利用率提高約 30%,以更有效率地生產車輛。我們也預計 2024 年 LCNRV 下降和堅定的採購承諾餘額將帶來好處。

  • The final piece of the bridge, which represents approximately 15%, is the scaling of our nonvehicle revenue. With over 70,000 Rivians on the road, we have the opportunity for increased revenue areas such as regulatory credits, accessories, service, remarketing and software-enabled services. These drivers are core to our long-term margin targets, and we expect to continue to drive recurring revenues in these areas as the car park grows and we expand our offerings.

    橋樑的最後一部分(約佔 15%)是擴大我們的非車輛收入。超過 70,000 名 Rivian 人在路上,我們有機會在監管積分、配件、服務、再行銷和軟體服務等領域增加收入。這些驅動因素是我們長期利潤目標的核心,隨著停車場的發展和我們產品的擴展,我們預計將繼續推動這些領域的經常性收入。

  • Our adjusted operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $706 million. For the full year, our adjusted operating expenses of $2.7 billion represented 2.5% growth versus 2022 despite our production and delivery volumes more than doubling over the same period.

    我們第四季調整後的營運支出為 7.06 億美元。全年調整後營運費用為 27 億美元,與 2022 年相比成長 2.5%,儘管我們的產量和交付量同期成長了一倍多。

  • As RJ mentioned earlier, we are in the process of optimizing our operating expenditures by reducing our salaried employees by approximately 10%, along with a limited number of nonmanufacturing hourly employees. Our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was negative $1.1 billion. For the full year, our EBITDA was just under our guidance of negative $4 billion.

    正如 RJ 之前提到的,我們正在透過將受薪員工減少約 10% 以及有限數量的非製造業時薪員工來優化營運支出。本季調整後 EBITDA 為負 11 億美元。全年,我們的 EBITDA 僅為負 40 億美元。

  • Turning to our business outlook for 2024. We remain focused on driving greater cost efficiency across the company. We are guiding to 57,000 total vehicles produced for the year. Compared to 2023, we anticipate consumer and commercial vehicle deliveries to grow by low single digits.

    談到我們 2024 年的業務展望。我們仍然專注於提高整個公司的成本效率。我們預計今年的汽車生產總量為 57,000 輛。與 2023 年相比,我們預計消費者和商用車交付量將以較低的個位數成長。

  • As we discussed on last quarter's earnings call, we expect to shut down both the consumer and commercial lines in our normal plant for several weeks during the second quarter to introduce cost savings in vehicle technologies to the R1 platform. We believe these changes will meaningfully reduce our material costs and position Rivian to exit 2024 with a much improved margin profile. While the direct downtime will be over a portion of Q2, we anticipate this to impact all 4 quarters of output as we prepare the facility for the work and then individually ramp each vehicle variant as well as our supply chain following the shutdown.

    正如我們在上季度的財報電話會議上討論的那樣,我們預計在第二季度將正常工廠的消費者和商業生產線關閉數週,以便將車輛技術的成本節約引入 R1 平台。我們相信這些變化將顯著降低我們的材料成本,並使 Rivian 在 2024 年退出時利潤率狀況大幅改善。雖然直接停機時間將持續到第二季​​度的一部分,但我們預計這將影響所有 4 個季度的產量,因為我們準備設施進行工作,然後在關閉後單獨提高每種車輛型號以及我們的供應鏈。

  • As for the first quarter of 2024, due to managing changes in our supply chain associated with the introduction of new materials, we expect to factory-gate approximately 13,500 units for the quarter. We expect that there will be a few thousand more vehicles, which are built but not factory-gated as they wait an updated part we expect to receive in April. We anticipate the first quarter total delivery to be approximately 10% to 15% below the fourth quarter 2023 deliveries.

    至於 2024 年第一季度,由於管理與新材料引入相關的供應鏈變化,我們預計該季度將工廠出貨約 13,500 台。我們預計還會有數千輛車輛,這些車輛已製造完畢,但尚未出廠,因為它們正在等待我們預計在四月收到的更新零件。我們預計第一季的總交付量將比 2023 年第四季的交付量減少約 10% 至 15%。

  • While the incorporation of new design changes impact near-term production, we are confident it better positions Rivian to be more profitable and competitive over the long term. We expect 2024 EBITDA to be negative $2.7 billion as we focus on continuing our go-to-market infrastructure build-out and the development of R2, while also optimizing our costs driven by the integration of key new engineering technology and design changes, negotiated supplier cost downs and a more efficient operating expense structure.

    雖然新設計變更的納入會影響近期生產,但我們相信,從長遠來看,它可以更好地幫助 Rivian 提高獲利能力和競爭力。我們預計 2024 年 EBITDA 將為負 27 億美元,因為我們專注於繼續進入市場的基礎設施建設和 R2 的開發,同時透過關鍵的新工程技術和設計變更的整合來優化我們的成本,談判供應商成本下降和更有效的營運費用結構。

  • Recently, we have taken measures to rationalize our capital expenditures due to a greater focus on our core business. Capital expenditures in 2024 are expected to be $1.75 billion, driven by additional investments in our production facilities, next-generation technologies and the continued build-out of our go-to-market operations.

    最近,由於更加關注我們的核心業務,我們已採取措施合理化我們的資本支出。由於我們對生產設施、下一代技術的額外投資以及我們的上市業務的持續建設,預計 2024 年的資本支出將達到 17.5 億美元。

  • We remain confident that our cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments can fund our operations through 2025. We aim to maintain a strong balance sheet position by continuing to drive cost efficiencies and improve our vehicle unit economics while opportunistically evaluating a variety of capital markets available to Rivian ranging across the capital structure.

    我們仍然相信,我們的現金、現金等價物和短期投資能夠為我們的營運提供資金直至2025 年。我們的目標是透過繼續提高成本效率和改善我們的車輛單位經濟性,同時機會主義地評估各種資本市場,保持強勁的資產負債表狀況Rivian 可以在整個資本結構中使用。

  • Over the long term, we continue to see a clear path to our approximately 25% gross margin target, high teens adjusted EBITDA margin target and approximately 10% free cash flow margin target.

    從長遠來看,我們繼續看到實現約 25% 毛利率目標、高雙位數調整後 EBITDA 利潤率目標和約 10% 自由現金流利潤率目標的明確道路。

  • With that, let me turn the call back over to the operator to open the line for Q&A.

    接下來,讓我將電話轉回接線生以打開問答線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from John Murphy with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

  • John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

    John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

  • Just a question on the downtime relative to -- on the R1 versus the launch of the R2. And RJ, just curious, is it maybe better to focus on pulling forward the launch of the R2 and committing capital, both human and dollars to pulling that forward and getting that high-volume program up and running as opposed to tinkering with the line on the R1 and maybe circling back to that R1 line leader? Is that possible? Or is there kind of constraints or just kind of misguided and these things can both happen at the same time and you can't pull for the R2 forward at all?

    只是一個關於 R1 與 R2 發布之間的停機時間的問題。 RJ 只是好奇,是否最好專注於推動 R2 的推出,並投入資本(包括人力和美元)來推動這一進程,讓大容量項目啟動並運行,而不是對生產線進行修修補補。R1 並可能繞回R1 的領隊?那可能嗎?或者是否存在某種限製或只是某種誤導,而這些事情可以同時發生,而你根本無法拉動 R2 前進?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Yes. Thanks, John. We're certainly working very hard to make sure we deliver R2 on time and to the extent possible, any time we can out of the program. I think what has us so excited about but R2 is if we look at the success of R1 in terms of how the markets responded to the brand and to the product, it's the top-selling EV with a price point of over $70,000. And our hope, of course, is to translate the brand strength that we've demonstrated for Rivian with R1 into the R2 product and into a much lower price segment, which has a very large just market.

    是的。謝謝,約翰。當然,我們正在非常努力地工作,以確保我們能夠按時交付 R2,並儘可能在計劃之外的任何時間交付。我認為 R2 讓我們如此興奮的是,如果我們從市場對品牌和產品的反​​應來看待 R1 的成功,它是最暢銷的電動車,價格超過 70,000 美元。當然,我們的希望是將我們透過 R1 為 Rivian 展示的品牌實力轉化為 R2 產品以及價格低得多的產品,該產品擁有非常大的公正市場。

  • I think the key thing, though, to come back to your question, R1, is just recognizing how much of the content that's going into the shutdown in Q2 actually translates to R2. So there's a massive consolidation of our ECUs in the vehicle. So that's all the computers in the vehicle, which we design and engineer in house. We've consolidated them. We reduced the number of computers by about 65%. And that network architecture and associated ECU topology is very closely related to what's in R2. And so it not only derisks R2, but it's part of the development process and development sequence associated with the launch of that product.

    不過,我認為,回到你的問題 R1,關鍵是要認識到第二季關閉的內容有多少實際上轉化為 R2。因此,我們的 ECU 在車輛中進行了大規模整合。這就是車輛中的所有計算機,都是我們在內部設計和製造的。我們已經整合了它們。我們減少了大約 65% 的計算機數量。此網路架構和相關的 ECU 拓撲與 R2 中的內容非常密切相關。因此,它不僅消除了 R2 的風險,而且是與該產品發布相關的開發過程和開發順序的一部分。

  • Along with that, these changes that we're making to R1 with regards to just the overall changing out of hundreds of components and associated suppliers with those components also corresponds to a number of supplier engagements that we have that linked to R2. And the volume that R2 brings allows us to be more aggressive in pricing with a number of those suppliers that are on the R1 program. So the 2 are very much interlinked. And with that said, as we think about our focus as a business, the shutdown and the updates associated with it in our bill of materials and along with the line really is sort of part 1 to the major focus for us of the business, which is the successful launch and rapid ramp-up of the R2 production.

    除此之外,我們對 R1 所做的這些更改涉及數百個組件以及與這些組件相關的供應商的整體更改,也對應於我們與 R2 相關的許多供應商約定。 R2 帶來的銷售量使我們能夠在與 R1 計劃中的許多供應商的定價中更加積極。所以這兩者是非常相互關聯的。話雖如此,當我們考慮我們作為一家企業的重點時,我們的物料清單以及生產線中的關閉和與之相關的更新確實是我們業務主要重點的第一部分,這R2 產量的成功推出和快速提升。

  • John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

    John Joseph Murphy - MD and Lead United States Auto Analyst

  • And just one follow-up. If you think about product cadence in spacing of product, do you feel like the tack that the Tesla is taking of a product launch that's relatively sparse but constant improvement is more appropriate in the direction you're heading? Or do you think something closer to sort of a typical sort of 4- to 5-year product life cycle with many products interspersed is the way you're ultimately going to land as we kind of look 5 to 10 years in the future?

    只有一個後續行動。如果您考慮產品間隔中的產品節奏,您是否覺得特斯拉所採取的相對稀疏但不斷改進的產品發布策略更適合您的發展方向?或者您是否認為,在我們展望未來 5 到 10 年的情況下,您最終會採用一種更接近典型的 4 到 5 年產品生命週期(其中散佈著許多產品)的方式?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Yes. When we think about it from a customer point of view, one of the things we see is most valued is making sure that the platform -- the vehicle platform and architecture allows for a continuous stream of updates. And so in the R1 product, the customer satisfaction is extremely high. The brand strength is high, with the consumer reports rates us as having the highest level of brand equity, if you will, where the likelihood of repurchase is the highest for our brand. And a lot of that is borne out of the continued updates we're making through over the year of software improvements.

    是的。當我們從客戶的角度考慮時,我們認為最有價值的事情之一是確保平台(車輛平台和架構)允許持續的更新流。所以在R1產品中,顧客滿意度是極高的。品牌強度很高,消費者報告將我們評為擁有最高水準的品牌資產(如果您願意的話),我們品牌的重複購買可能性最高。其中很大一部分是由於我們在過去一年中不斷進行的軟體改進而得到的更新。

  • And so we think that's a really dramatic shift in just how we think about products and sort of overall vehicle life cycle. That will translate, of course, into R2. And as we look at the launch of R2, learning from what we went through in launching R1 with R1T, R1S and also the commercial vans all in parallel, we've really simplified the product portfolio cadence with R2 where there's a single vehicle that we're launching, the number of build combinations and trim combinations is very limited with an emphasis on managing rapid ramp-up of the supply chain and driving operational efficiency into the R2 plan.

    因此,我們認為這對我們對產品和整個車輛生命週期的看法發生了巨大的轉變。當然,這將轉化為 R2。當我們回顧 R2 的推出時,從我們同時推出 R1 和 R1T、R1S 以及商用貨車的經歷中吸取教訓,我們確實簡化了 R2 的產品組合節奏,其中我們只用了一款車輛。正在推出,構建組合和裝飾組合的數量非常有限,重點是管理供應鏈的快速成長並提高R2 計畫的營運效率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

  • Adam Michael Jonas - MD

    Adam Michael Jonas - MD

  • My first question is how much of the volume that you forecast for this year is preordered versus what you would expect to be sold out of inventory? And I have a follow-up.

    我的第一個問題是,您預計今年的預訂量與您預期的庫存售完量相比有多少?我有一個後續行動。

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Thanks, Adam. The -- our backlog is something that we know there's been questions around just what does that look like? What's the topology of it. One of the things we need to recognize is a lot of the customers that are in our backlog have been there for a number of years. And as a result, it's not as if the moment someone gets to the front of the line, so to speak, and they're -- we're ready to make a delivery to them that they can take delivery at that moment. Life situation in terms of when they're ready to take on a new vehicle, the coordination of that around what their financing expectations are, all of those factors play in.

    謝謝,亞當。我們知道我們的積壓工作一直存在疑問,它到底是什麼樣的?它的拓樸結構是怎樣的。我們需要認識到的一件事是,我們積壓的許多客戶已經存在多年了。因此,並不是說當有人走到隊伍前面的那一刻,我們就準備好向他們送貨,他們就可以在那一刻接受送貨。當他們準備好購買新車時的生活狀況,圍繞著他們的融資預期的協調,所有這些因素都會發揮作用。

  • And so the way to think about our backlog is to recognize that this will be -- this will continue to exist through the remainder of this year. But in parallel to delivering vehicles from our backlog, we'll also be delivering vehicles from newer orders, orders that are happening over the course of this year. And so that for us is a transition as a business where we go from purely delivering from backlog to having folks that are coming in, new demand and having those deliveries happen much quicker. And to help facilitate that transition, we've created a few customer-facing structures that make that a little easier.

    因此,考慮我們的積壓工作的方法是認識到這將在今年剩餘時間內繼續存在。但在交付積壓車輛的同時,我們也將根據今年發生的新訂單交付車輛。因此,對我們來說,這是一個業務轉型,我們從純粹交付積壓訂單,轉向擁有新需求的人員,並讓交付速度更快。為了幫助促進這種轉變,我們創建了一些面向客戶的結構,使這個過程變得更容易。

  • We've created something we call the R1 shop, which allows some of the more common build combinations to be put in there to allow customers to get access to those vehicles more quickly. And still, to this day, one of the most common questions we get from customers is how quickly can I get my vehicle. And so managing that dynamic of customers wanting to have the immediate gratification of they buy a vehicle, they get it within a week or 2, along with customers that have been waiting for, in some cases, 2 or 3 years. That balance has been something we're learning to navigate and we do expect to continue to have to manage that balance over the course of the year.

    我們創建了一個稱為 R1 商店的東西,它允許將一些更常見的構建組合放在那裡,以便客戶更快地獲得這些車輛。直到今天,我們從客戶那裡得到的最常見問題之一仍然是我多快拿到我的車。因此,管理那些希望在購買車輛後立即滿足的客戶的動態,他們將在一周或兩週內得到它,以及在某些情況下已經等待了兩三年的客戶。我們正在學習如何實現這種平衡,並且我們確實希望在這一年中繼續保持這種平衡。

  • Adam Michael Jonas - MD

    Adam Michael Jonas - MD

  • Okay. And just as a follow-up, the EV world has changed so much, RJ, since the 2021 IPO in a lot of ways, in a more moderated demand and competitiveness and pretty uncertain economic environment to boot. So I'm just wondering how the Board and the management team, are you still fully committed to that vertical integrated, go to Georgia, 400,000 units, $5 billion on your own strategy? Or has the board consider any alternative to the greenfield option in Georgia or at least some adjustments in terms of the size or whether you go in with a partner? Or is it pretty much the strategy for 2021 that you're kind of going ahead with right now into '24.

    好的。隨之而來的是,自 2021 年 IPO 以來,電動車世界在許多方面都發生了很大變化,需求和競爭力更加溫和,經濟環境相當不確定。所以我只是想知道董事會和管理團隊是否仍然完全致力於垂直整合,去喬治亞州,40 萬套,50 億美元的策略?或者董事會是否考慮過佐治亞州綠地選項的任何替代方案,或者至少在規模或是否與合作夥伴一起進行一些調整?或者說,這基本上是 2021 年的策略,您現在就在 24 世紀繼續實施。

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Thanks, Adam. The way we've approached our Georgia facility is to build out the plant across 2 phases. So it's not a single 400,000 unit block but rather two 200,000 unit blocks. I think the broader point that you raised just around overall demand for electric vehicles, how fast the market transitions to electric vehicles, we do think we're in a very interesting moment in time where there is a lack of choice of highly compelling EV products in that $45,000 to $55,000 price range, recognizing the average price of a new vehicle transaction in the United States last year was around $48,000.

    謝謝,亞當。我們在喬治亞州工廠的建設方式是分兩個階段建造工廠。因此,它不是一個 400,000 單位的區塊,而是兩個 200,000 單位的區塊。我認為您提出的更廣泛的觀點是關於電動車的整體需求,市場向電動車過渡的速度有多快,我們確實認為我們正處於一個非常有趣的時刻,缺乏極具吸引力的電動車產品的選擇考慮到去年美國新車交易的平均價格約為 48,000 美元,該價格範圍為 45,000 美元至 55,000 美元。

  • And so when we look at the competition that exists, we often get immediately drawn into competing what's the competition look like directly with Tesla. But we need to recognize only 7% of the market has electrified, meaning really, we're talking about how do we get the 93% of the market that's not buying an EV to get excited about the product. And R2 -- the layout of the vehicle, the package, the configuration, the technology content, we think, creates a really interesting and very unique configuration that we're very bullish in the demand for that product. And of course, recognizing what we've seen in R1 and how strong Rivian has resonated with consumers there.

    因此,當我們審視現有的競爭時,我們經常會立即陷入與特斯拉直接競爭的競爭。但我們需要認識到,只有 7% 的市場已經電動化,這實際上意味著,我們正在討論如何讓 93% 的未購買電動車的市場參與者對該產品感到興奮。我們認為,R2 的車輛佈局、包裝、配置、技術含量創造了一個非常有趣且非常獨特的配置,我們非常看好對該產品的需求。當然,認識到我們在 R1 中所看到的以及 Rivian 與那裡的消費者產生了多麼強烈的共鳴。

  • We remain very bullish on the R2 segment and the R2 product itself. And so the way that we've engaged with our suppliers to ensure that we can ramp effectively as well as laying out the production road map, albeit measured, as I described across 2 phases, has been very much thoughtful of the scale of the opportunity and the scale of this transition that we see happening over the course of this decade.

    我們仍然非常看好 R2 細分市場和 R2 產品本身。因此,我們與供應商合作以確保我們能夠有效地提高產量並製定生產路線圖的方式,儘管正如我在兩個階段中所描述的那樣進行了衡量,但我們對機會的規模進行了深思熟慮以及我們在這十年中看到的這種轉變的規模。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joseph Spak with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Joseph Spak。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

  • Just on the workforce reduction, sort of obviously some tough decisions. But -- and I know, Claire and RJ, you've sort of been really focused on the gross profitability. But maybe if we could just sort of focus a little bit on OpEx because -- and I understand you're cutting the workforce by 10% here, but how do you get comfortable that this is -- that even now that is sort of the right level because ex stock comp in '23, it's just under $3 billion if -- I know it's a different world. But if I look at like where Tesla was at a sort of similar level of sales back in 2015, you're still like 80% above that. So maybe you could just give us a little bit more color on sort of OpEx and the plans there going forward.

    就裁員而言,顯然是一些艱難的決定。但是,我知道,克萊爾和 RJ,你們一直非常關注毛獲利能力。但也許我們可以稍微關註一下營運支出,因為——我知道你們正在削減 10% 的勞動力,但你如何接受這一點——即使是現在,這也是正確的水平,因為23 年的前股票比較,它略低於30 億美元,如果——我知道這是一個不同的世界。但如果我看看特斯拉在 2015 年處於類似的銷售水平,你會發現仍然比這個水平高出 80%。所以也許你可以給我們更多關於營運支出和未來計劃的資訊。

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Thanks, Joe. Yes, when we think about OpEx, there's a number of components here. So just to break apart the big category of it all. If we look first at R&D -- if we at look at between R&D and SG&A, on the R&D side, we have to recognize comparing to Tesla in 2015, while useful -- and certainly when we look at these types of metrics internally as well. We're not competing against Tesla in 2015. We're competing against Tesla and others in 2024. And so we're driving incredible focus on efficiency and how we develop our products.

    謝謝,喬。是的,當我們考慮營運支出時,這裡有很多組件。所以只是把這一切分成大類。如果我們先看研發——如果我們看一下研發和SG&A之間的關係,在研發方面,我們必須認識到與2015年的特斯拉相比,雖然有用——當然,當我們在內部審視這些類型的指標時。我們不是在 2015 年與特斯拉競爭。我們是在 2024 年與特斯拉和其他公司競爭。因此,我們非常關注效率以及我們開發產品的方式。

  • We talk internally about being the most efficient at turning capital into amazing products. But it does also require us to be spending appropriately in the core areas. And for us, there's a few areas that we've made the decision to develop vertically in-house to create what we believe to be significant structural long-term advantages, and that's really around the electronic stack in the vehicle, so the ECU and computer topology throughout the vehicle. The software, of course, that's running on those computers across the vehicle and then our high-voltage architecture. So that's our high-voltage battery system, all the way through the rest of the driveline, so through the drive unit out to the wheels.

    我們在內部討論如何最有效地將資本轉化為令人驚嘆的產品。但這確實也要求我們在核心領域進行適當的支出。對於我們來說,我們已經決定在一些領域進行內部垂直開發,以創造我們認為具有重大結構性長期優勢的領域,而這實際上是圍繞車輛中的電子堆棧進行的,因此 ECU 和整個車輛的計算機拓撲。當然,軟體是在車輛上的電腦上運行的,然後是我們的高壓架構。這就是我們的高壓電池系統,一直透過傳動系統的其餘部分,透過驅動單元到達車輪。

  • And it's in those areas that we see both technical differentiation that creates really a consumer experience that's markedly different and better than what we believe a sourced third-party strategy will deliver. But it also provides meaningful cost advantages. And in the compute stack and ECU topology front, the biggest opportunity here is ECU consolidation and the ability to have a much smaller number of computers that run the vehicle. And of course, because we control and design those computers, it allows us much more seamlessly to do that. So that's first on the R&D front, a big focus, as I said, has been on driving efficiency into that.

    正是在這些領域,我們看到技術差異化創造了真正的消費者體驗,這種體驗與我們認為的第三方採購策略將提供的體驗明顯不同且更好。但它也提供了有意義的成本優勢。在計算堆疊和 ECU 拓撲方面,最大的機會是 ECU 整合以及使用更少數量的計算機來運行車輛的能力。當然,因為我們控制和設計這些計算機,所以我們可以更無縫地做到這一點。因此,首先是在研發方面,正如我所說,重點是提高效率。

  • Now we think of R&D as entirely spending within our employee base, but a big portion of this is also with suppliers. And it has to do with the supplier development costs associated with, let's say, a seat program for the R2 or headlights for the R2. And so a lot of the negotiations that are being driven, I referenced this earlier, around R1 supply also linked to much more strategic long-term relationships with our suppliers that will feed into R2, where we're asking those suppliers to treat us much more like partners where instead of having to pay the suppliers so much upfront, which is a lot of what we've dealt with historically to those suppliers recognizing and clearly seeing the market strength that we have.

    現在,我們認為研發完全是在我們的員工基礎上進行的支出,但其中很大一部分也花在了供應商身上。這與供應商開發成本有關,例如 R2 的座椅項目或 R2 的車頭燈。因此,許多正在進行的談判,我之前提到過,圍繞著R1 供應,也與我們與供應商之間更具策略性的長期關係有關,這些關係將進入R2,我們要求這些供應商給我們更多待遇更像是合作夥伴,而不必向供應商預先支付這麼多費用,這是我們歷史上處理過的很多事情,讓那些認識到並清楚地看到我們擁有的市場實力的供應商。

  • I mean these suppliers are providing all of our competitors, and they see our volumes relative to our competitors, especially with R1 seeing it's really dominant position from a market share point of view. That's helped a lot. And completely changing the nature of those discussions with suppliers, which -- of course, we think about it. We talk about a lot in the context of COGS, but it really does impact us on the OpEx side through the prelaunch development costs.

    我的意思是這些供應商正在為我們所有的競爭對手提供產品,他們看到我們相對於競爭對手的銷量,特別是 R1 從市場份額的角度來看它確實佔據了主導地位。這很有幫助。並徹底改變與供應商討論的性質,當然,我們會考慮這一點。我們在 COGS 方面討論了很多,但它確實透過預發布開發成本對我們的營運支出產生了影響。

  • Now with that said, I do want to just spend a moment here on SG&A because it's the other big driver of our OpEx, of course. And on this front, we're at a point where we're building out a service network. We're building out good sales and distribution network. And a number of these areas today are recognized as OpEx. In particular, on the service side, almost all of this is OpEx. But over time, of course, our service costs become part of our COGS structure. And in fact, service will ultimately be a profitable part of the business.

    話雖如此,我確實想花一點時間討論 SG&A,因為當然,這是我們營運支出的另一個重要推動因素。在這方面,我們正處於建立服務網絡的階段。我們正在建立良好的銷售和分銷網絡。如今,其中許多領域被認為是營運支出。特別是在服務端,幾乎都是OpEx。但隨著時間的推移,我們的服務成本當然會成為我們的銷貨成本結構的一部分。事實上,服務最終將成為業務的獲利部分。

  • And so Claire referenced this, and we can certainly speak to it more here. We're very focused on not minimizing the growth of our SG&A spend as we continue to scale the business. So while the business is scaling and the number of vehicles we're supporting in the field grows dramatically over the next couple of years, we're working very hard to really maintain a lean SG&A side of the organization, and that has the tailwind of a lot of those costs that are embedded in SG&A today, as I said, becoming COGS and actually becoming profitable.

    所以克萊爾提到了這一點,我們當然可以在這裡更多地談論它。隨著我們不斷擴大業務規模,我們非常注重不要最大限度地減少銷售、管理和行政費用的成長。因此,雖然業務規模不斷擴大,並且我們在該領域支持的車輛數量在未來幾年內急劇增長,但我們正在非常努力地真正維持組織的精益 SG&A 方面,這有利於正如我所說,如今許多成本已包含在SG&A 中,變成了銷貨成本(COGS),並實際上實現了盈利。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe just on CapEx. I think last quarter, you sort of talked about a '23, '24 average, below $2 billion. And I guess that's technically true, but it's pretty significantly below $2 billion now with the 175 guidance. So was there -- is there sort of a further shift in capital spending? And if so, what does that relate to?

    好的。然後也許只是資本支出。我想上個季度,您談到了 23 年、24 年的平均水平,低於 20 億美元。我想這在技術上是正確的,但以 175 的指引,現在的價格遠低於 20 億美元。那麼資本支出是否有進一步的轉變?如果是這樣,那有什麼關係?

  • Claire McDonough - CFO

    Claire McDonough - CFO

  • Sure. As we think about the broader context, first and foremost, as you heard RJ talk about, we're focused on driving efficiency across the entire company as a whole. And so as we look at what we've been able to achieve, given these efforts across the company, it's allowed us or enabled us to not just shift out CapEx, but dramatically reduce the required CapEx within the business as a whole. And so that's by pressurizing the areas of investment, whether it's how efficient we're able to invest in some of the rerate activities in normal and taking CapEx out there, whether it's, as RJ mentioned, engaging with suppliers around product tooling investments, whether it's continuing to tweak around the efficiency of all of our go-to-market operations' investments between sales and service locations as well as all of our enterprise tech and logistics infrastructure as well.

    當然。當我們考慮更廣泛的背景時,首先也是最重要的,正如您聽到 RJ 所說的那樣,我們專注於提高整個公司的效率。因此,當我們審視我們已經取得的成就時,考慮到整個公司的這些努力,它使我們不僅能夠轉移資本支出,而且還大大減少了整個業務所需的資本支出。因此,這就是透過對投資領域施加壓力,無論是我們能夠在正常情況下投資一些重新定價活動並採取資本支出的效率如何,無論是像RJ 提到的那樣,圍繞產品工具投資與供應商進行合作,還是它繼續圍繞我們在銷售和服務地點以及所有企業技術和物流基礎設施之間的所有上市運營投資的效率進行調整。

  • And so I think what you're seeing from us is, it's really just continuing to drive that mentality of efficiency and culture of efficiency across not just CapEx, but really our operating expenses, how we're managing our cost of goods sold and equally as we're thinking through the way in which we'll manage our inventory balances as well, which are our 4 key focuses across the business.

    因此,我認為您從我們身上看到的是,這實際上只是繼續推動這種效率心態和效率文化,不僅涉及資本支出,還涉及我們的營運支出、我們如何管理銷售成本以及相同的成本。因為我們正在考慮管理庫存餘額的方式,這是我們整個業務的4 個重點關注點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

  • Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

  • There's a comment in your release about the 2024 forecast requiring an improvement in the order rate and you said it's going to be driven by planned go-to-market strategies. I wanted to ask about that. Is it reasonable to assume that the Q1 deliveries that you're projecting here is kind of reflective of the current order run rates, around 12,000 or 135 a day. What is the impact that you're seeing from some of the strategies you've unveiled like the standard variance in leasing? And can you talk a little bit about how you're going to get the word out or advertise what you're offering?

    您的新聞稿中有一條關於 2024 年預測的評論,要求提高訂單率,您說這將由計劃的上市策略驅動。我想問一下。假設您在這裡預測的第一季交付量反映了當前的訂單運行率(每天約 12,000 或 135 個)是否合理?您從您推出的一些策略(例如租賃標準差異)中看到了什麼影響?您能談談您將如何宣傳或宣傳您所提供的產品嗎?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Sure. Well, thanks, Rod. Yes, you referenced it, but it's important to note here, we've just recently launched our Standard pack variant, which we've long talked about, but ultimately, it's now available to customers. And we're really encouraged by the reaction to that and some of the early read through on just what that does in terms of demand generation.

    當然。嗯,謝謝,羅德。是的,您引用了它,但在這裡需要注意的是,我們最近剛剛推出了標準包變體,我們已經討論了很長時間,但最終,它現在可供客戶使用。我們對這一問題的反應以及一些早期的關於這在需求產生方面的作用的閱讀感到非常鼓舞。

  • It's also worth noting and implicit in your question is a key element here, which is the Center pack has not only driven demand for our more price-sensitive customers, but it's actually increased. We've seen an increase in demand for our Quad Large pack as well. And that really links to the continued growth and awareness for what we're building.

    還值得注意的是,您的問題中隱含著一個關鍵要素,即中心包不僅推動了對價格敏感的客戶的需求,而且實際上有所增加。我們發現對我們的四大號包裝的需求也有所增加。這確實與我們正在建立的產品的持續增長和意識相關。

  • And when we think about how strong our customers like the product and how the brand excitement for customers has been so high with the likelihood of repurchase being by significantly the highest across the entire auto industry. It's really a key element for us in terms of driving knowledge of the brands, knowledge of the products and driving awareness up. And so with that said, a lot of the investment that I was referring to in the letter and in my opening comments has to do with building out more of our go-to-market infrastructure.

    當我們想到我們的客戶對產品的喜愛程度以及客戶的品牌興奮度如此之高時,回購的可能性在整個汽車行業中是最高的。對我們來說,這確實是提高品牌知識、產品知識和提高認知度的關鍵因素。話雖如此,我在信中和開場白中提到的許多投資都與建立更多的市場基礎設施​​有關。

  • Today, we have 11 spaces. We have just over 50 service locations. We're now offering test drives through our service locations along with some of those spaces, but getting customers in our vehicles is by far, the way -- the most effective way to not only drive brand awareness but to convert that brand -- that experience into actual vehicle orders and vehicle sales. And so a lot of activity is going to be playing out over the course of the next few months to continue building up these functional capabilities within the business and also the infrastructure associated with supporting physical interaction with the products.

    今天,我們有 11 個車位。我們有超過 50 個服務地點。我們現在透過我們的服務地點以及其中一些空間提供試駕服務,但到目前為止,讓客戶乘坐我們的車輛是最有效的方式,不僅可以提高品牌知名度,而且可以轉換該品牌。實際車輛訂單和車輛銷售的經驗。因此,在接下來的幾個月中,將進行大量活動,以繼續在業務內建立這些功能以及與支援與產品的實體互動相關的基礎設施。

  • Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. just given what you're seeing right now, can you discuss the rationale behind expanding the capacity by 30% and -- at the end of this year? And any update on EDV demand outside of Amazon?

    好的。鑑於您現在所看到的情況,您能否討論一下在今年年底將產能擴大 30% 的理由?亞馬遜以外的 EDV 需求有任何更新嗎?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Yes. And within the plant, the shutdown we have coming in the second quarter -- next quarter, I think a lot of the thinking around that tends to drive towards what's happening in the plant. And I said it before, but just to repeat here for clarity.

    是的。在工廠內部,我們將在第二季度——下個季度關閉,我認為圍繞這個問題的許多思考往往會推動工廠發生的事情。我之前說過,但為了清楚起見,這裡重複一下。

  • One of the most important parts of the shutdown is actually what's happening within our supply chain. So we're making a number of supplier changes, a number of component changes along with supplier changes that lead to significant reductions in our material cost. And the scale and amount of change in our supply chain and through our bill of materials means that the coordination of the restart of the plant and winding down of the existing inventory, bringing up of new inventory requires that multiweek shutdown. And with that multiweek shutdown, we are making improvements to the line as well. I do want to make that very clear.

    停工最重要的部分之一實際上是我們供應鏈內發生的事情。因此,我們正在進行一些供應商變更,以及一些組件的變更以及供應商的變更,導致我們的材料成本顯著降低。我們的供應鏈以及物料清單的變化規模和數量意味著協調工廠的重啟和減少現有庫存、增加新庫存需要停工數週。隨著長達數週的停工,我們也正在對生產線進行改進。我確實想說得很清楚。

  • And the improvements are really focused on line rate and the ability to run the line at a higher speed and therefore, a more -- in a more efficient manner. And that increased line rate will ultimately translate to lower conversion costs, reduced hours per unit within the plant as we look at operating post shutdown through the rest of this year.

    這些改進實際上集中在生產線速率和以更高的速度運行生產線的能力,因此,以更有效率的方式運作。當我們考慮今年剩餘時間停工後的營運情況時,提高的生產線速度最終將轉化為更低的轉換成本,減少工廠內每台設備的工作時間。

  • Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And the EDV demand?

    好的。那麼 EDV 需求呢?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, this is something we've talked about in the past. We're really excited to have new customers running pilot programs. We have more of these pilot programs coming online. There's more and more images of our commercial vans being spotted with different logos on the side. But as we've said in the past, for these large fleets and the complexities associated with transitioning to an electric vehicle fleet, we expect these to start as pilots. And then over the course of this year, transition into larger scale orders. And we don't anticipate. And we've been careful to guide to say that -- really the significant step-up in demand associated with non-Amazon customers, we'll see that next year in the 2025 time frame.

    是的,這是我們過去討論過的事情。我們非常高興有新客戶運行試點專案。我們有更多這樣的試點計畫上線。越來越多的圖片顯示我們的商用貨車側面有不同的標誌。但正如我們過去所說,由於這些大型車隊以及向電動車隊過渡的複雜性,我們預計這些車隊將從試點開始。然後在今年,過渡到更大規模的訂單。我們沒有預料到。我們一直在謹慎地引導說——與非亞馬遜客戶相關的需求確實顯著增加,我們將在明年 2025 年的時間範圍內看到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from George Gianarikas with Canaccord Genuity.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 George Gianarikas。

  • George Gianarikas - Analyst

    George Gianarikas - Analyst

  • I'd like to just go back to one of the previous questions. Just to understand the Q1 delivery cadence of down -- that you said down 10% to 15% sequentially. Can you just kind of help us understand the reasons behind that? Is there anything to do with just the supply? Or was it informed by the comments you made around demand?

    我想回到之前的問題之一。只是為了了解第一季交付節奏的下降——您所說的下降了 10% 到 15%。您能幫助我們了解背後的原因嗎?與供應有什麼關係嗎?還是根據您圍繞需求發表的評論得出的?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Thanks, George. Claire referenced this in her opening remarks. During this quarter, a lot of the -- some of the supplier changeovers that we're working on, we're going to start to feel the impact of them. And we saw it in some of the onetime charges that we accumulated already in Q4. We're going to feel more of that in Q1. And along with that, we're going to be building several thousand vehicles that won't be deliverable to consumers. So we won't be factor-gating those vehicles in Q1. And so that's the reason you see the production guide lower in Q1 than what it was than what we achieved in Q4.

    謝謝,喬治。克萊爾在開場白中提到了這一點。在本季度,我們正在進行的許多供應商變更,我們將開始感受到它們的影響。我們在第四季度已經累積的一些一次性費用中看到了這一點。我們將在第一季感受到更多。同時,我們將製造數千輛不會交付給消費者的車輛。因此,我們不會在第一季對這些車輛進行因素控制。這就是為什麼你會看到第一季的生產指南低於我們在第四季的成績。

  • And so while the plant won't be shut down in Q1, we are going to start to feel the impacts of the scale of the supplier changeover that we're making. And that ultimately is going to translate into our deliveries as well. So with that said, we're going to be doing everything we can to, once the parts are available, to get those vehicles built and then make those deliveries as quickly as we can in the second quarter.

    因此,雖然工廠不會在第一季關閉,但我們將開始感受到我們正在進行的供應商轉換規模的影響。這最終也將轉化為我們的交付。話雖如此,一旦零件到位,我們將盡一切努力建造這些車輛,然後在第二季度盡快交付。

  • George Gianarikas - Analyst

    George Gianarikas - Analyst

  • Maybe as a follow-up just to understand. You have, I think, over 70,000 cars on the road to date, and I'm sure you've learned a lot from them being on the road, a lot of data collection. What has that data collection informed you about product performance and maybe what you're going to put into the R2?

    也許作為後續只是為了理解。我想,到目前為止,路上有超過 70,000 輛汽車,我相信您從這些汽車上路的過程中學到了很多東西,收集了大量的數據。該數據收集為您提供了有關產品性能的哪些信息,以及您可能要在 R2 中添加哪些內容?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, there's a lot. One of the things that's been most surprising to us is just watching how customers are interacting with the overall digital experience and digital ecosystem of the vehicle. And we track really closely how the experience of interacting in the vehicle translates into the mobile app and the use of the mobile app within the vehicle and -- or I should say, to access and work with the vehicle.

    是的,有很多。最令我們驚訝的事情之一就是觀察客戶如何與車輛的整體數位體驗和數位生態系統互動。我們非常密切地追蹤車輛中的互動體驗如何轉化為行動應用程式以及行動應用程式在車內的使用,或者我應該說,如何存取和使用車輛。

  • And so as we look at some of the features that are coming even in this year, it's to enhance the digital experience in the vehicle around dynamics, around usability, around activities that you can do in the vehicles, so some of the entertainment functions and continuing to make those interactions easier and more seamless. And the way we build our software road map, there's a strategic, let's call it, long form element that looks at how everything puzzles together in terms of partnerships, in terms of some of the capability that goes in.

    因此,當我們看到今年即將推出的一些功能時,它是為了增強車輛中的數位體驗,圍繞著動態、可用性、圍繞著你可以在車輛中進行的活動,所以一些娛樂功能和繼續使這些互動變得更容易、更無縫。在我們建立軟體路線圖的方式中,有一個策略性的,我們稱之為長形式元素,它著眼於合作夥伴關係和某些功能方面的一切如何結合在一起。

  • But then there's also a very active dialogue with customers where we're not only active on forms, but we have user groups that send us feedback points and we address those. And I get a lot of joy out of our release notes that go out every 3, 4 weeks with every other update that we drop and then the feedback and the excitement that comes with that. With all that said, a lot of the learnings of what's gone into R1 beyond software around drivability, around how the vehicles are being used, around the importance placed on safety have played into really helping to shape how we're prioritizing cost of goods sold spending, if you will, on R2. And we're very excited to show the R2 product.

    但是,我們也與客戶進行了非常積極的對話,我們不僅積極參與表單,而且我們還有向我們發送回饋點的使用者群組,我們會解決這些問題。我從每 3、4 週發布一次的發行說明以及我們發布的所有其他更新以及隨之而來的反饋和興奮中得到了很多樂趣。話雖如此,R1 中除了軟體之外的駕駛性能、車輛使用方式、安全重要性等方面的許多知識都真正幫助我們確定了銷售成本的優先順序如果你願意的話,可以花在 R2 上。我們非常高興能夠展示 R2 產品。

  • We think it really captures the most important sort of elements or the essence of Rivian as a brand and as a product, but in a smaller form factor package and, of course, at a lower price point. But it's still very much a Rivian, and we've had lots and lots of debates over the last 24 months around what the content needs to be in the vehicle to deliver on that Rivian-ness, if you will, while at the same time recognizing that certain trade-offs need to be made to achieve the lower price point.

    我們認為它確實抓住了 Rivian 作為品牌和產品的最重要的元素或精髓,但外形尺寸更小,當然價格也更低。但它在很大程度上仍然是 Rivian 風格,在過去 24 個月裡,我們就車輛中需要包含哪些內容來呈現 Rivian 風格進行了很多很多爭論,如果你願意的話,同時同時認識到需要做出某一些權衡才能實現較低的價格點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Dan Levy with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

  • Dan Meir Levy - Senior Analyst

    Dan Meir Levy - Senior Analyst

  • I wanted to start with a question on your bridge to gross margin breakeven. And I wanted to just contrast that versus the prior commentary you gave, which is that half of the improvement would come from volume, just cost absorption; a quarter from cost improvements; and the cost from -- a quarter from price. I recognize the starting points are different. But given a seemingly weaker volume environment, and I think maybe some questions on the pricing, what are the incremental offsets that you're seeing that still enable you to get to this gross margin breakeven? Is it just further improvements or breakthroughs on price than what you previously anticipated? And maybe if you could just comment for a second, if you reached variable margin breakeven in the fourth quarter on R1 just something that I believe you've previously targeted.

    我想從一個關於毛利率損益平衡的橋樑的問題開始。我想將其與您先前的評論進行對比,即一半的改進將來自數量,而只是成本吸收;四分之一來自成本改善;成本是價格的四分之一。我認識到出發點是不同的。但鑑於銷售環境看似疲弱,而且我認為可能存在一些有關定價的問題,您所看到的增量抵銷額是多少,仍能讓您實現毛利率盈虧平衡?是否只是價格上比您先前預期的進一步改進或突破?也許您可以稍微評論一下,如果您在第四季度實現 R1 的可變利潤盈虧平衡,我相信您之前已經設定了目標。

  • Claire McDonough - CFO

    Claire McDonough - CFO

  • Thanks, Dan. As you heard in my prepared remarks, the bridge -- the largest piece of the bridge lasts from Q4 '23 to Q4 2024, in which we expect to be modestly positive in gross profit is variable cost. And so that is enabled by as you heard RJ speak about the continued opportunity we have to renegotiate prices with suppliers.

    謝謝,丹。正如您在我準備好的發言中所聽到的,這座橋——這座橋最大的一部分從23 年第四季度持續到2024 年第四季度,我們預計可變成本的毛利將適度為正。正如您聽到 RJ 談到的,我們必須與供應商重新談判價格的持續機會,從而實現這一點。

  • We now have took care of R2, which is coming next, which has been an enabler for us to get to lower material costs across the board from a commercial context. We also have, which is largely unchanged, the planned engineering design changes that drive ample cost efficiency that will go into the product as part of the Q2 shutdown.

    我們現在已經處理了接下來即將推出的 R2,它使我們能夠從商業環境中全面降低材料成本。我們還計劃進行工程設計變更,這些變更基本上沒有變化,這些變更可以提高成本效率,並將作為第二季停工的一部分納入產品中。

  • And then the areas where we've seen incremental opportunity is really what we've seen across the board from a commodities context where lithium prices have continued to soften across the board and have been more of a tailwind today in this bridge relative to the last bridge that we provided a year ago on our Q4 2022 earnings call as well.

    然後,我們看到增量機會的領域實際上是我們從大宗商品背景中全面看到的,其中鋰價格持續全面走軟,並且相對於過去,今天在這座橋上更多的是順風車我們在一年前的2022 年第四季財報電話會議上也提供了這座橋樑。

  • As we look at the other elements, as you rightfully noted, right? The lever of fixed cost absorption is a smaller bucket for us today. As we think about the continuation of driving more operational efficiency as the lever, versus a massive step change in the underlying volumes associated with our 2024 guidance.

    當我們考慮其他要素時,正如您正確指出的那樣,對吧?對於今天的我們來說,固定成本吸收的槓桿是一個較小的桶子。當我們考慮繼續提高營運效率作為槓桿時,而不是與我們的 2024 年指導相關的基礎數量發生巨大的階躍變化。

  • And then the last element on ASP, you've seen us take an incremental $12,000 of revenue per delivered vehicle Q4-over-Q4 from 2022 to 2023. And so we've already made very significant progress against a lot of the ASP side of the equation. And so what we indicated in our prepared remarks was really more directed on some of the non-vehicle-related services revenue opportunity. So that's continuation of sales of regulatory credits.

    然後是關於ASP 的最後一個因素,您已經看到,從2022 年到2023 年,我們每輛交付車輛的第四季度收入比第四季度增加了12,000 美元。因此,我們已經在ASP 方面取得了非常重大的進展。方程式。因此,我們在準備好的發言中指出的實際上更多是針對一些非車輛相關服務的收入機會。這就是監管信貸銷售的持續。

  • RJ spoke about the service opportunity just now as we build the car park. And more of what today is sitting in SG&A starts to become COGS or warranty expense, and that's another key enabler for us as well, as will the opportunity for Rivian to continue to offer additional software-related revenue streams in the future that will add to that broader ASP driver within the business as a whole.

    RJ 剛才談到了我們建造停車場時的服務機會。今天,SG&A 中的更多內容開始變成 COGS 或保固費用,這也是我們的另一個關鍵推動因素,Rivian 將有機會在未來繼續提供額外的軟體相關收入流,這將增加整個業務中更廣泛的ASP 驅動力。

  • On to your second question around the contribution margin of the vehicles. We were very close in achieving positive contribution for current priced vehicles in Q4 and see direct line of sight, as is evidenced by our continuation of committing to our Q4 positive gross profit as we look to the future and the impacts that the material cost reductions will have driven by our shutdown in Q2.

    關於你關於車輛邊際貢獻的第二個問題。我們非常接近在第四季度為當前定價的車輛實現積極貢獻,並且看到了直接的視線,正如我們在展望未來以及材料成本降低將產生的影響時繼續致力於第四季度的正毛利所證明的那樣。受到我們第二季停工的推動。

  • Dan Meir Levy - Senior Analyst

    Dan Meir Levy - Senior Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe if we could just have a follow-up on the demand side. And specifically, how do you think about elasticity of demand here? And I get it that most of the incremental volume you're looking at beyond the order book is coming from the go-to-market strategy. But beyond that, if that doesn't materialize as planned, how do you think about the pricing? Are you looking to hold firm on the price and maybe limit some of the volume upside? Or do you think that there would be potential for pricing actions?

    偉大的。然後也許我們可以在需求方面進行跟進。具體來說,您如何看待這裡的需求彈性?我了解到,您所看到的訂單之外的大部分增量都來自上市策略。但除此之外,如果這沒有按計劃實現,您如何看待定價?您是否希望堅守價格並可能限制部分成交量的上漲?或者您認為有可能採取定價行動嗎?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, we're -- thanks, George (sic) [Dan]. We're constantly monitoring and looking at the pricing environment and understanding really what the overall macro environment is looking like and how to manage that. The -- to date, we've just recently launched our lowest price variant of R1 with the Standard pack. And as I indicated, we've seen very encouraging reaction to that. So there is demand elasticity as a function of price, for sure. But at this point, we feel comfortable with that pricing on the Standard pack and this -- but again, this is something in this environment, we have to go and eyes wide open and recognize how the rest of the market is reacting and how the rest of the market is behaving.

    是的,我們是-謝謝,喬治(原文如此)[丹]。我們不斷監控和研究定價環境,並真正了解整體宏觀環境的情況以及如何管理它。迄今為止,我們最近剛推出了價格最低的 R1 變體和標準套件。正如我所指出的,我們看到了非常令人鼓舞的反應。因此,需求彈性是價格的函數,這是肯定的。但在這一點上,我們對標準包的定價感到滿意,但同樣,這是在這種環境下的事情,我們必須睜大眼睛,認識到市場的其他部分如何反應以及市場其餘部分錶現良好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

  • Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

  • Yes. I think, first, I was hoping to better understand your drivers around the software and services part of the business. I think about 15% of the gross profit improvement by the fourth quarter of this year is coming from software and services. You've got a number of offerings there that you've spoken about, things like insurance, charging, regulatory credit sales, maybe you can rank order for us what you see some of the largest drivers are in terms of getting to that 15% coming from software services this year?

    是的。我認為,首先,我希望更了解圍繞業務的軟體和服務部分的驅動因素。我認為今年第四季毛利成長的大約15%來自軟體和服務。您已經談到了許多產品,例如保險、收費、監管信貸銷售等,也許您可以為我們排列順序,您看到今年一些最大的驅動因素達到了 15%今年來自軟體服務?

  • Claire McDonough - CFO

    Claire McDonough - CFO

  • Sure. The biggest driver there is driven by the increases that we saw in regulatory credits in aggregate. And so for us, we had $73 million for the entire year in sales of regulatory credits; and Q4 alone had $39 million. That was the largest driver. But beyond that, we continue to see growth across the maintenance and repairs from a service standpoint; our continued efforts in remarketing; and over the longer term, the opportunity to sell Rivian in the resale market as well, which we think is an important value driver for the business overall.

    當然。最大的推動因素是我們看到的監管信貸總量的增加。因此,對我們來說,全年監管信貸銷售收入為 7,300 萬美元;光是第四季就有 3900 萬美元。那是最大的驅動力。但除此之外,從服務的角度來看,我們持續看到維護和維修方面的成長;我們在再行銷方面的持續努力;從長遠來看,還有在轉售市場出售 Rivian 的機會,我們認為這是整個業務的重要價值驅動力。

  • We've also been encouraged by the financing revenue streams as evidenced by both the ongoing straight financing of our vehicles, in addition to the introduction of leasing, which we launched in November of this year, which has been a key enabler for us to driving greater share of our financing penetration across all Rivian sold as well. And equally, as we think about the insurance business, that's an annuity type business as we've seen very strong renewal rates for existing customers that are now entering their second year, while we're also able to capture a significant portion of new customers as well. And so we're continuing to see strong tailwinds from each of the key drivers across the board and are excited to have a broader road map of more of these software-enabled services in the future.

    我們也對融資收入流感到鼓舞,除了我們於今年 11 月推出的租賃業務之外,我們還對車輛進行持續的直接融資,這是我們推動汽車業務發展的關鍵推動因素。我們在所有Rivian 銷售產品中的融資滲透率也更大。同樣,當我們考慮保險業務時,這是一項年金類型的業務,因為我們已經看到現在進入第二年的現有客戶的續訂率非常高,同時我們也能夠吸引很大一部分新客戶以及。因此,我們繼續看到來自各個關鍵驅動因素的強勁推動力,並且很高興能夠在未來為更多這些軟體支援的服務制定更廣泛的路線圖。

  • Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Trevor Delaney - Equity Analyst

  • My second question was trying to understand how fixed the input cost environment might be for 2024 at this point. You spoke about some changes in things like lithium and battery pricing. I mean that can move around a little bit throughout the year. I mean have you already gotten firm commitments on some of these materials? And similarly, with suppliers, you oftentimes, either there's a volume requirement in order to get a certain price. You spoke around a partnership approach that some of the suppliers are taking and wanting to be involved with the R2 in terms of the longer-term opportunities with Rivian. But to the extent your volumes end up less than the 57,000 production target, is there some risk as well around what the input cost you'll be paying are?

    我的第二個問題是試圖了解 2024 年的投入成本環境目前可能是如何固定的。您談到了鋰和電池定價等方面的一些變化。我的意思是,全年情況可能會有所變化。我的意思是,您已經對其中一些材料做出了堅定的承諾嗎?同樣,對於供應商來說,通常要么有數量要求,要么要獲得一定的價格。您談到了一些供應商正在採取的合作夥伴關係,並希望參與 R2,以獲得與 Rivian 的長期機會。但如果您的產量最終低於 57,000 輛的生產目標,您將支付的投入成本是否也存在一些風險?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, Mark, you referenced already, but I mean the raw material costs within the battery supply chain have changed dramatically in the last year, specifically lithium hydroxide is down by about 4x from north of $80 a kilogram to just over $20 a kilogram today. So that has a very significant impact on our overall cost structure.

    是的,馬克,你已經提到過,但我的意思是去年電池供應鏈內的原材料成本發生了巨大變化,特別是氫氧化鋰從每公斤80 美元左右下降到今天每公斤20 美元多一點,下降了約4 倍。因此,這對我們的整體成本結構產生了非常重大的影響。

  • But getting into just thinking about the overall supply chain sort of health for us and overall material costs, we're just seeing a dramatically different environment for sourcing than what we had previously. And when we think about when we source R1, and a lot of the billing materials that we've been operating off of and the contracts we've been operating off of to date, those are contracts that went in place in 2019, 2020, where Rivian was in a very different negotiating position with those suppliers and where the industry was in a very different position to be making commitments to us.

    但只要考慮一下我們整個供應鏈的健康狀況和整體材料成本,我們就會看到與以前截然不同的採購環境。當我們考慮何時採購 R1 以及我們一直在運營的許多計費材料以及迄今為止我們一直在運營的合同時,這些都是 2019 年、2020 年簽訂的合同, Rivian 在與這些供應商的談判中處於非常不同的地位,並且該行業在向我們做出承諾方面處於非常不同的地位。

  • Fast forward to today, those same suppliers are highly engaged, very enthusiastic about the product. And they've experienced very much firsthand some of the challenges of supplying other products, and some of the products from large established OEMs have not done nearly as well as what they thought they would or what those other manufacturers thought they would. And on a relative basis, looking at those and comparing it to us, they now see us as a large customer, and they see what's coming with R2 and that gives us a really meaningful negotiating leverage.

    快進到今天,這些供應商仍然高度參與,對產品非常熱情。他們親身經歷了供應其他產品的一些挑戰,而且來自大型老牌 OEM 的一些產品的表現幾乎沒有達到他們或其他製造商的預期。相對而言,看看這些並與我們進行比較,他們現在將我們視為大客戶,他們看到了 R2 的未來,這為我們提供了真正有意義的談判籌碼。

  • And in many cases, we've been able to negotiate with our existing suppliers meaningful cost reductions that remove any of the price premium that we would have been paying before associated with us being a new company. But in cases where we haven't been able to do that, we've been very active on resourcing suppliers and bring on -- ending supplier relationships and bringing on new suppliers. And we have a relentless focus on driving our cost of goods sold down through those activities.

    在許多情況下,我們能夠與現有供應商協商有意義的成本削減,從而消除我們作為一家新公司之前需要支付的任何溢價。但在我們無法做到這一點的情況下,我們一直非常積極地為供應商提供資源並引入——結束供應商關係並引入新的供應商。我們堅持不懈地致力於透過這些活動降低我們的銷售成本。

  • Now in cases where we're either changing the part design or changing out a supplier, it's not as if we can press a button, and it happens immediately. There's both the tooling time; there's the bring up of the supplier; and then, there's the coordination of the transition. And the shutdown, as I said, this will be the single largest consolidated set of supply chain changes that we've had by far since we started production.

    現在,當我們改變零件設計或更換供應商時,我們並不是可以按下一個按鈕,而是立即發生。既有加工時間,也有加工時間。還有供應商的培養;然後是過渡的協調。正如我所說,停工將是自我們開始生產以來迄今為止所經歷的最大的供應鏈整合變革。

  • And we had a similar set of changes we made on EDV early part of 2023 when we shut the line down, and out of that, we achieved a material cost reduction of 35%. But the scale of the changes we're making on R1 is meaningfully bigger in terms of number of suppliers and number of components with the shutdown that we're planning here in the second quarter of this year.

    2023 年初,我們關閉了生產線,對 EDV 進行了一系列類似的改變,最終材料成本降低了 35%。但我們對 R1 所做的改變的規模在供應商數量和組件數量方面明顯更大,我們計劃在今年第二季關閉。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐爾·羅斯納。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Director & Research Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Director & Research Analyst

  • I was hoping you can help me understand better how the introduction of the Standard packs helps with your targets and strategy. I think the previous plan, I think you may have shared with us, was perhaps to introduce it once you've actually had a chance to incorporate some of the cost savings and potentially lower battery packs and efficiencies, et cetera. But I guess by doing it now, the price point is probably like $9,000 below the Large pack, but the battery pack is not that much smaller, like 14-kilowatt or smaller. So it feels like it's a large price cost without much of a cost to bill of material of it. And so I'm curious, does it help you with volume scale in terms of getting to that breakeven gross margin? Where does it fit in the equation?

    我希望您能幫助我更好地了解標準包的引入如何幫助您實現目標和策略。我認為之前的計劃,我想你可能已經與我們分享了,也許是在你真正有機會整合一些成本節約和可能降低的電池組和效率等之後引入它。但我想現在就這樣做,價格點可能比大型電池組低 9,000 美元左右,但電池組並沒有那麼小,例如 14 千瓦或更小。因此,感覺價格成本很高,但材料清單成本卻很低。所以我很好奇,它是否有助於您擴大銷量以達到損益兩平的毛利率?它在等式中的位置在哪裡?

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Yes. Emmanuel, as you said, Standard pack has long been part of the strategy to have the 3 different battery pack sizes. And ultimately, it helps us access the most price-sensitive customers. We pulled it into this quarter really with the intent of answering what we were seeing as a real customer request and a lot of our customers looking forward to that configuration. But we also are able to use this as a chance to really better understand the overall demand curve.

    是的。 Emmanuel,正如您所說,標準電池組長期以來一直是擁有 3 種不同電池組尺寸的策略的一部分。最終,它幫助我們接觸到對價格最敏感的客戶。我們將其引入本季度的目的實際上是為了回答我們所看到的真實客戶請求,以及我們的許多客戶對這種配置的期望。但我們也可以以此為契機,更了解整體需求曲線。

  • And when we look at the different configurations that we offer, up until recently, we really had our -- we had our Large pack with Quad motor and then our Max pack. So we were -- we've built out the high price side of our portfolio, but we hadn't brought in the more affordable variants of R1. And so what we're really encouraged by is not only the excitement around that for, as I said, our most price-sensitive customers, but the fact that it's driving awareness, which somewhat may be not immediately obvious.

    當我們看到我們提供的不同配置時,直到最近,我們確實擁有了我們的——我們擁有帶有四電機的大型包,然後是我們的最大包。所以我們——我們已經建立了產品組合的高價部分,但我們沒有引入更實惠的 R1 變體。因此,我們真正感到鼓舞的不僅是正如我所說的,我們對價格最敏感的客戶對此感到興奮,而且是它提高了意識,這在某種程度上可能不是立即顯而易見的。

  • But what it is driving is more demand for our Quad motor Large pack as well. So we've seen a step-up in new orders for the Quad Large, which is supported by folks that are becoming aware of the vehicle or becoming aware of the brand, getting drawn in by Standard pack, but then recognizing that they'd actually be willing to pay for the upgraded range or the upgraded performance that comes with either the Large pack or the quad Motor.

    但它也推動了對我們的四電機大型電池組的更多需求。因此,我們看到 Quad Large 的新訂單有所增加,這是由那些逐漸了解該車輛或了解該品牌的人們支持的,他們被標準包吸引,但後來認識到他們會實際上願意為大型包或四電機附帶的升級範圍或升級性能付費。

  • Emmanuel Rosner - Director & Research Analyst

    Emmanuel Rosner - Director & Research Analyst

  • Understood. And then as a follow-up then, staying on the topic of pricing. If I'm looking at your gross margin walk towards breakeven in the fourth quarter, obviously, the only piece about pricing there is sort of like this adjacent revenue and it's a positive one. I don't -- is there any risk of downside risk from pricing on existing vehicle?

    明白了。然後作為後續行動,繼續討論定價主題。如果我看一下你們第四季的毛利率走向損益平衡,顯然,唯一關於定價的部分有點像相鄰的收入,而且是正面的。我不知道現有車輛的定價是否有下行風險?

  • I mean I'm thinking about specifically the introduction of the Standard pack. This is obviously cheaper than the vehicles you were selling before. And so to a certain extent, all else equal, that would put some pressure on pricing. So any reason why that would not be part of the walk?

    我的意思是我正在特別考慮標準包的引入。這顯然比你之前賣的車輛便宜。因此在某種程度上,在其他條件相同的情況下,這會對定價造成一些壓力。那麼有什麼理由不讓這成為步行的一部分呢?

  • Claire McDonough - CFO

    Claire McDonough - CFO

  • Emmanuel, as we think about the ASP lever throughout the course of the year, we'll see fluctuations that will mirror our production ramp. So we'll start, following our shutdown in Q2, with production of our Standard pack vehicles across the board. So while you see higher ASPs in Q4, driven by a higher concentration of Max packs that were available in that period, you'll see some fluctuations throughout the course of the year. But by the time we get to Q4 of next year, we'll have that full suite of offerings as a whole that allows us to drive more equal levels of ASP on the R1 portfolio as a whole, which is embedded within that Q4 2024 bridge. And then as I spoke about, the increase from there is really driven by many of the nonvehicle revenue streams, which will be additive in aggregate as we're servicing a larger car park within the market.

    Emmanuel,當我們考慮全年的平均售價槓桿時,我們會看到反映我們產量成長的波動。因此,在第二季關閉之後,我們將開始全面生產標準包裝車輛。因此,雖然您會在第四季度看到更高的平均售價,這是由於該時期可用的 Max 包的集中度較高,但您會在全年中看到一些波動。但到明年第四季時,我們將擁有全套產品,使我們能夠在整個 R1 產品組合上推動更平等的 ASP 水平,該產品嵌入到 2024 年第四季的橋樑中。正如我所說,從那裡開始的成長實際上是由許多非車輛收入流推動的,隨著我們為市場內更大的停車場提供服務,這些收入流將在總體上增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • I would now like to turn the call back over to RJ for any closing remarks.

    我現在想將電話轉回給 RJ,讓其發表結束語。

  • Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Robert Joseph Scaringe - Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • Well, thanks, everyone, for spending the time with us today and the thoughtful questions and discussion we were able to have. We're incredibly excited about the strength of customer excitement for our brand and for what we're building as a company, and with that, looking forward to continue to make progress on our drive towards profitability as a business. And an important component of that is, of course, the unveiling and showing of our R2 product line, which will be showing on March 7. And that will embody a lot of the learnings that we've talked about in the context of launching and ramping R1, in a product that we think really fits the market and really fits the largest segment of demand that's available today.

    好的,謝謝大家今天抽出時間與我們在一起,並提出深思熟慮的問題和討論。我們對客戶對我們的品牌和我們正在建立的公司的興奮程度感到無比興奮,並期待在我們的企業盈利能力方面繼續取得進展。當然,其中一個重要組成部分是我們的 R2 產品線的揭幕和展示,該產品線將於 3 月 7 日展示。這將體現我們在發布和展示 R2 產品線時學到的許多知識。我們認為R1確實適合市場,並且真正適合當今最大的需求領域。

  • So with that, thank you, everyone, for the time and look forward to our next call.

    因此,感謝大家抽出寶貴的時間,並期待我們的下一次通話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。