Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Rivian Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Rivian 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker today, Tim Bei, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係副總裁 Tim Bei。請繼續。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Rivian's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call.

下午好，感謝您參加 Rivian 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, matters discussed on this call, including comments and responses to questions, reflect management's views as of today. We will also be making statements related to our business operations and financial performance that may be considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are described in our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter.

在我們開始之前，本次電話會議討論的事項（包括評論和問題答案）反映了管理層截至目前的觀點。我們也將做出與我們的業務營運和財務表現相關的聲明，根據聯邦證券法，這些聲明可能被視為前瞻性聲明。此類陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。我們向 SEC 提交的文件和今天的股東信中描述了這些風險和不確定性。

During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in our shareholder letter. Just before the call, we published our shareholder letter, which includes an overview of our progress over the recent months. I encourage you to read it for additional details around some of the items we'll cover on today's call.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。我們的股東信中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。就在電話會議之前，我們發布了股東信，其中概述了我們最近幾個月的進展。我鼓勵您閱讀它，以了解我們將在今天的電話會議中討論的一些項目的更多詳細資訊。

With that, I'll turn the call over to RJ who will begin with a few opening remarks.

接下來，我將把電話轉給 RJ，他將首先做一些開場白。

Thanks, Tim. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. During our call, I'll highlight key developments during the third quarter and provide an update on the progress we're making against our core value drivers.

謝謝，蒂姆。大家好，感謝您今天加入我們。在我們的電話會議中，我將重點介紹第三季度的主要進展，並提供我們在核心價值驅動因素方面取得的進展的最新資訊。

Importantly, I want to take this opportunity to provide some broader perspective on the EV space. There's been a lot of noise and a lot of dialogue recently around EV adoption. And I want to emphatically state just how deeply convicted we are that the entire automotive industry will be transitioning to electric over the next 1 to 2 decades.

重要的是，我想藉此機會提供有關電動車領域的一些更廣泛的視角。最近，圍繞電動車的採用出現了許多噪音和很多對話。我想強調的是，我們堅信整個汽車產業將在未來 1 到 2 年內轉向電動化。

We've built and designed our business around this transition. We've designed our team structure, our technology stack, the way we approach vertical integration to not only help our business scale profitably, but to ensure we're positioned to be a leader in this generational opportunity. We believe a substantial competitive advantage is our approach to vertically integrating our in-vehicle computers, software stack and propulsion platform along with our efficient direct-to-consumer go-to-market strategy. R2 will benefit from investments we've made in R1 and will represent our first global platform.

我們圍繞著這一轉變建立和設計了我們的業務。我們設計了我們的團隊結構、我們的技術堆疊以及我們實現垂直整合的方式，不僅可以幫助我們的業務規模實現盈利，而且可以確保我們在這一代機會中成為領導者。我們相信，我們將車載電腦、軟體堆疊和推進平台與高效的直接面向消費者的市場策略進行垂直整合的方法，是我們的巨大競爭優勢。 R2 將受益於我們對 R1 的投資，並將代表我們的第一個全球平台。

Additionally, Rivian's production ramp and introduction of multiple vehicle platforms in our Illinois plant has provided significant learnings in a compressed time frame. Our team will apply this experience to our new manufacturing facility in Georgia with the goal of achieving a considerably lower cost structure.

此外，Rivian 的產量提升以及伊利諾伊州工廠引入的多個車輛平台在壓縮的時間內提供了重要的經驗教訓。我們的團隊將把這些經驗應用到我們在喬治亞州的新製造工廠，目標是實現顯著降低的成本結構。

Now in the short term, I want to acknowledge the macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures impacting consumers and businesses, most notably the increase in interest rates. In this context, we remain laser focused on the factors within our control: driving greater cost efficiency, continue to ramp production, investing in differentiated technologies, continuing to enhance the Rivian customer experience and maintaining a strong balance sheet. Our financial and operating results during the third quarter of 2023 represent progress on each of these fronts.

現在，在短期內，我想承認影響消費者和企業的宏觀經濟和地緣政治壓力，尤其是利率的上升。在此背景下，我們仍專注於我們控制範圍內的因素：提高成本效率、持續提高產量、投資差異化技術、持續增強 Rivian 客戶體驗並維持強勁的資產負債表。我們 2023 年第三季的財務和營運表現代表了這些方面的進展。

Before I get into the third quarter's milestones and performance, I wanted to touch on an important development, which was just released. We have amended our Amazon agreement with terms and conditions which provide the opportunity to sell commercial vans to other customers, helping more companies reduce their CO2 emissions.

在介紹第三季的里程碑和業績之前，我想談談剛發布的一項重要進展。我們修改了亞馬遜協議的條款和條件，提供了向其他客戶銷售商用貨車的機會，幫助更多公司減少二氧化碳排放。

With more than 10,000 EDVs on the road and 260 million delivered packages, we are already seeing meaningful impact from our initial rollout. We are excited to continue our work with Amazon to deliver on their initial order of 100,000 vehicles along with a diverse set of new commercial customers.

超過 10,000 輛 EDV 已在路上行駛，交付的包裹已達 2.6 億個，我們已經看到了最初的推出所產生的有意義的影響。我們很高興繼續與亞馬遜合作，交付他們最初的 100,000 輛汽車訂單以及各種新的商業客戶。

We're confident in the value our vans, software and services offerings can provide fleet customers and are in active discussions with a number of large potential fleet customers to launch pilot programs. It's important to appreciate that the sales cycle for commercial vans typically begins with lower volume pilot programs.

我們對我們的貨車、軟體和服務產品可以為車隊客戶提供的價值充滿信心，並正在與許多大型潛在車隊客戶積極討論啟動試點計劃。重要的是要認識到，商用貨車的銷售週期通常始於小批量試點計劃。

The most recent quarter demonstrated sequential production growth, further improvement in our profitability per vehicle, introduction of a new Max Pack variant, with up to 410 miles of range, rollout of multiple over-the-year updates to enhance the customer experience and focused investment on commercial infrastructure to support our expanding fleet of vehicles.

最近一個季度的產量連續增長，每輛車的盈利能力進一步提高，推出了新的 Max Pack 變體，續航里程高達 410 英里，推出了多項年度更新以增強客戶體驗和集中投資商業基礎設施以支持我們不斷擴大的車隊。

Within the plant, we continue to see progress across our production lines. We produced 16,304 vehicles during the third quarter and continued to ramp our Enduro driving line. As a result of this, we are raising our production guidance for the year to 54,000 total units.

在工廠內，我們的生產線不斷取得進展。第三季我們生產了 16,304 輛汽車，並繼續擴大我們的 Enduro 駕駛產品線。因此，我們將今年的總產量目標提高至 54,000 輛。

Later this month, we plan to take about a week of downtime for validation builds to support the incorporation of engineering design changes into the R1 platform, which will be implemented in the planned downtime in the second quarter of 2024, which we discussed in the last earnings call. These new technologies include our simplified electronic control unit topology and cost reductions across a variety of areas, including the vehicle harness, body structure and battery pack. These technology changes represent Rivian's continued emphasis on driving greater cost efficiency. They will significantly contribute to driving towards Rivian's long-term gross margin targets.

本月晚些時候，我們計劃用大約一周的停機時間進行驗證構建，以支持將工程設計變更納入R1 平台，這將在2024 年第二季度的計劃停機時間內實施，我們在上一篇中討論過這一點財報電話會議。這些新技術包括我們簡化的電子控制單元拓撲以及各個領域的成本降低，包括車輛線束、車身結構和電池組。這些技術變革體現了 Rivian 對提高成本效率的持續重視。它們將為推動 Rivian 的長期毛利率目標做出重大貢獻。

Rivian vehicles have now driven over 490 million miles, which provides us with great data and feedback on how our vehicles perform in different environments and what features can be added or enhanced to improve our customer experience. This past quarter, we pushed major over-the-air updates, which improved drive quality, enhanced the towing experience and offer customers a new way to interact with the different drive modes. Over 90% of our customers update their software within 5 days of it becoming available. It's great to see this level of engagement with our software.

Rivian 車輛現已行駛超過 4.9 億英里，這為我們提供了有關車輛在不同環境中的表現以及可以添加或增強哪些功能以改善客戶體驗的大量數據和回饋。上個季度，我們推出了重大的無線更新，提高了駕駛質量，增強了牽引體驗，並為客戶提供了一種與不同駕駛模式互動的新方式。我們超過 90% 的客戶在軟體可用後 5 天內更新其軟體。很高興看到我們的軟體有如此高的參與度。

Later this quarter, we plan to launch our leasing platform on select R1T vehicles in certain regions. We look forward to offering this as a new way for our customers to take delivery of Rivian and plan to expand the lease offering to additional regions across more vehicles as the program matures.

本季度晚些時候，我們計劃在某些地區推出精選 R1T 車輛的租賃平台。我們期待將此作為我們的客戶接收 Rivian 的新方式，並計劃隨著該計劃的成熟，將租賃服務擴展到更多地區，提供更多車輛。

We currently have 45 service centers along with 408 mobile service vehicles. In addition, we recently opened Rivian Spaces, our version of retail stores in Vancouver, Seattle, Chicago, Brooklyn, Nashville, Atlanta and Denver. Our DC fast charging network also continues to expand. We currently have 57 Rivian Adventure Network charging sites.

目前，我們擁有45個服務中心和408輛行動服務車。此外，我們最近還在溫哥華、西雅圖、芝加哥、布魯克林、納許維爾、亞特蘭大和丹佛開設了 Rivian Spaces，這是我們的零售店版本。我們的直流快速充電網路也在不斷擴大。我們目前擁有 57 個 Rivian Adventure Network 充電站。

Progress continued on the development of the R2 platform as well as preparing the future production site in Georgia. I was just there a few weeks ago. It's great to see the site starting to take form, which is the direct result of a strong collaboration between the state, local community and Rivian. It was a strong quarter as we continue to deliver on our operational and financial goals. I would like to thank our employees, customers, partners, suppliers, communities and shareholders for their continued support of our vision.

R2 平台的開發以及喬治亞州未來生產基地的準備工作持續取得進展。幾週前我才在那裡。很高興看到網站開始成形，這是州、當地社區和 Rivian 之間強有力合作的直接結果。這是一個強勁的季度，我們繼續實現我們的營運和財務目標。我要感謝我們的員工、客戶、合作夥伴、供應商、社區和股東對我們願景的持續支持。

With that, I'll pass the call to Claire.

這樣，我就把電話轉給克萊爾。

Thanks, RJ. I would like to reiterate that our team is focused on 4 key value drivers: driving greater cost efficiency, continuing to ramp production, investing in differentiated technologies and continuing to enhance the Rivian customer experience. Third quarter results demonstrate advancement in each of these aspects of our business.

謝謝，RJ。我想重申，我們的團隊專注於 4 個關鍵價值驅動因素：提高成本效率、持續提高產量、投資差異化技術以及持續增強 Rivian 客戶體驗。第三季的業績顯示我們業務的各個方面都取得了進步。

During the third quarter, we produced 16,304 vehicles and delivered 15,564 vehicles, which was the primary driver of the $1.3 billion of revenue we generated. Total gross profit for the quarter was negative $477 million. We remain focused on improving our gross profit per vehicle delivered.

第三季度，我們生產了 16,304 輛汽車，交付了 15,564 輛汽車，這是我們創造 13 億美元收入的主要驅動力。該季度總毛利為負 4.77 億美元。我們仍然專注於提高每輛車交付的毛利。

During the third quarter, our gross loss per vehicle improved by approximately $2,000 versus the second quarter. This improvement would have been approximately $14,000 better, excluding the impact of the change in LCNRV and losses on firm purchase commitments. So therefore, LCNRV and losses on firm purchase commitments more significantly contributed to the improvement in gross profit during the second quarter as compared to the third quarter, highlighting the improvements we have made in ramping production and reducing the material cost of our vehicles.

第三季度，我們每輛車的總虧損比第二季度減少了約 2,000 美元。如果不包括 LCNRV 變化的影響和確定購買承諾的損失，這項改進將提高約 14,000 美元。因此，與第三季相比，LCNRV 和確定採購承諾的損失對第二季毛利的改善做出了更顯著的貢獻，突顯了我們在提高產量和降低車輛材料成本方面的進步。

As a reminder, when our LCNRV balance and losses on firm purchase commitments declines, it reduces cost of goods sold and positively contributes to gross profit. We expect by the end of 2024, we will no longer have material LCNRV inventory charges associated with the production at our Illinois plant as we reached positive gross profit.

提醒一下，當我們的 LCNRV 餘額和確定採購承諾的損失下降時，它會降低銷售商品的成本並對毛利做出積極貢獻。我們預計到 2024 年底，我們將不再產生與伊利諾伊州工廠生產相關的重大 LCNRV 庫存費用，因為我們實現了正毛利。

Our adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was negative $942 million. In October of this year, we raised a $1.75 billion green convertible note, which further strengthens our balance sheet as we approach the expected start of construction of our Georgia plant early next year.

本季調整後 EBITDA 為負 9.42 億美元。今年 10 月，我們籌集了 17.5 億美元的綠色可轉換票據，隨著我們預計明年初開始建造喬治亞工廠，這進一步增強了我們的資產負債表。

By maintaining a strong balance sheet, we're well positioned as we look to start production of the R2 platform in 2026. The offering was not completed until after the quarter end. Accordingly, the $1.6 billion of net proceeds from the raise was not included in our Q3 2023 ending cash balance of $9.1 billion.

透過保持強勁的資產負債表，我們處於有利位置，我們希望在 2026 年開始生產 R2 平台。該產品直到本季末才完成。因此，此次融資的 16 億美元淨收益並未計入 2023 年第三季末的 91 億美元現金餘額中。

Turning to our business outlook for 2023. We remain focused on ramping production and driving greater cost efficiency across the company. Based on the progress we've seen year-to-date across our manufacturing process, and our cost down efforts, we are raising each aspect of our 2023 annual guidance. We are raising our production guidance to 54,000 units, improving EBITDA guidance to negative $4 billion and lowering our CapEx guidance to $1.1 billion. The improvement in estimated CapEx is driven mostly by timing of spend and by our efforts to reduce costs across the business.

談到我們 2023 年的業務展望。我們仍然專注於提高產量並提高整個公司的成本效率。根據我們今年迄今在製造流程中所取得的進展以及降低成本的努力，我們正在提高 2023 年年度指導的各個方面。我們將產量指引提高至 54,000 輛，將 EBITDA 指引提高至負 40 億美元，並將資本支出指引降低至 11 億美元。預計資本支出的改善主要是由支出時間表以及我們為降低整個業務成本所做的努力所推動的。

As a reminder, because Amazon limits the intake of new commercial vans during its peak holiday delivery period, we expect a more significant gap between production and deliveries in Q4 relative to prior periods.

需要提醒的是，由於亞馬遜在假日配送高峰期限制了新商用貨車的進口量，因此我們預計第四季度的產量和交付量之間的差距將比前期更大。

As RJ mentioned, and as we discussed on last quarter's earnings call, we expect to shut down both the consumer and commercial lines in our Illinois facility in the second quarter of 2024 to introduce a number of new and vehicle technologies to the R1 platform. We believe these changes will meaningfully reduce our material costs and position Rivian to exit 2024 with a much improved margin profile. We are planning to adjust the production rate of the lines, whereby the planned annual capacity will be for 85,000 units for R1 and 65,000 units for EDV, keeping the total facility at an annual capacity of 150,000 units.

正如RJ 所提到的，以及我們在上個季度財報電話會議上討論的那樣，我們預計將在2024 年第二季度關閉伊利諾伊州工廠的消費者和商業生產線，以便向R1 平台引入許多新技術和車輛技術。我們相信這些變化將顯著降低我們的材料成本，並使 Rivian 在 2024 年退出時利潤率狀況大幅改善。我們計劃調整生產線的生產率，計劃年產能為R1 85,000 輛和EDV 65,000 輛，使工廠總產能保持在年產150,000 輛。

Our downtime in Q2 2024 and associated ramp-up in Q2 and Q3 2024 is expected to impact roughly 2 quarters of production. While the incorporation of new design changes impact near-term production, we are confident it better positions Rivian to be more profitable and competitive over the long term.

我們 2024 年第二季的停機以及 2024 年第二季和第三季的相關產能增加預計將影響約兩季的生產。雖然新設計變更的納入會影響近期生產，但我們相信，從長遠來看，它可以更好地幫助 Rivian 提高獲利能力和競爭力。

Overall, we continue to see a clear path to our approximately 25% gross margin target, high teens adjusted EBITDA margin target and approximately 10% free cash flow margin target.

總體而言，我們繼續看到實現約 25% 毛利率目標、高雙位數調整後 EBITDA 利潤率目標和約 10% 自由現金流利潤率目標的明確道路。

With that, let me turn the call back to the operator to open the line for Q&A.

接下來，讓我將電話轉回接線生以打開問答線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache 的線路。

I have a question on cost and a question on demand. Just first, my impression is that you're making better-than-expected progress on costs, just simply because you improved your gross loss by $16,000 ex LCNRV. I didn't see any average price improvement and presumably volume isn't helping you just yet because you haven't gotten to contribution margin positive on the R1. So is that correct? Because it is interesting since you haven't yet benefited from the new architecture of the Pack and all the other things that are coming into 2024.

我有一個關於成本的問題和一個關於需求的問題。首先，我的印像是，您在成本方面取得的進展好於預期，僅僅是因為您將扣除 LCNRV 的總損失減少了 16,000 美元。我沒有看到任何平均價格改善，並且可能銷量對您還沒有幫助，因為您尚未在 R1 上實現正貢獻邊際。那麼這是正確的嗎？因為這很有趣，因為您還沒有從 Pack 的新架構以及 2024 年即將推出的所有其他內容中受益。

Thanks for the question, Rod. As you think about the key drivers and the margin improvement that we saw over the last quarter, it was driven by the 23% increase that we saw in delivery volumes. So there was some fixed cost leverage.

謝謝你的提問，羅德。當你思考我們上個季度看到的關鍵驅動因素和利潤率改善時，你會發現這是由我們看到的交付量成長 23% 所推動的。因此存在一些固定成本槓桿。

But we also saw significant improvements in material costs which was driven both by a mix shift to greater concentration of EDV delivery volumes. So roughly about 30% of our revenue in Q3 was from the sales of the EDV itself, which is, as you mentioned, is a higher margin, already contribution margin positive for Rivian vehicle platform for us.

但我們也看到了材料成本的顯著改善，這是由混合轉向更集中的 EDV 交付量所推動的。因此，我們第三季大約 30% 的收入來自 EDV 本身的銷售，正如您所提到的，這是一個更高的利潤率，對我們來說，Rivian 車輛平台已經貢獻了正值利潤率。

But beyond the EDV, we also saw significant material cost savings as well for R1 driven by the continued work of our procurement team as we've been renegotiating many of our supply agreements. And then it also incorporated some of the early sales of our dual motor to consumers as well that benefited the reduction in material costs. In addition to those 2 key levers, we also saw continued softening in the broader logistics market -- space. And so that was also a contributor to the improvement that we saw on a per unit basis for Q3.

但除了 EDV 之外，我們還看到 R1 的材料成本也得到了顯著節省，這得益於我們採購團隊的持續工作，因為我們一直在重新談判許多供應協議。然後它還納入了我們早期向消費者銷售雙馬達的一些內容，這有利於材料成本的降低。除了這兩個關鍵槓桿之外，我們還看到更廣泛的物流市場——空間——持續疲軟。因此，這也是我們在第三季看到的單位數量改善的因素。

That's helpful. So yes, the contribution margin must be on the RCVs.

這很有幫助。所以，是的，邊際貢獻必須在 RCV 上。

On the demand side, could you talk about how quickly you can expand the RCV to other customers? I understand that there's a process with pilots and planning with these fleets. But any thoughts on how we can think about RCV sales into 2024 or 2025?

在需求方面，您能談談您能以多快的速度將 RCV 擴展到其他客戶嗎？據我所知，飛行員和機隊的規劃有一個流程。但是我們對 2024 年或 2025 年 RCV 銷售有何想法？

And on the R1, you're currently on -- at 65,000 units, you will be at 85,000 units at the end of next year capacity. Presumably, you'd need at least 180 orders per average day just to meet like your current capacity. Maybe you could talk a little bit about whether you're seeing convergence to that kind of a number. What's the trajectory of demand that you're seeing in the orders?

目前 R1 的產能為 65,000 輛，到明年年底產能將達到 85,000 輛。據推測，您平均每天至少需要 180 個訂單才能滿足您目前的產能。也許你可以談談你是否看到了這種數字的收斂性。您在訂單中看到的需求軌跡是什麼？

Rod, thanks for your question on the commercial vehicle and R1.

Rod，感謝您提出有關商用車和 R1 的問題。

Just to speak first on the commercial vehicle side. We -- of course, we've been working on the exclusivity agreement with Amazon for a while, and we've talked about this in past earnings calls. So it's not as if we were surprised by that this morning. And with that, we've been building the relationships with a diverse set of commercial operators, and that's everything from last mile to retail to a wide variety of industrial or commercial business cases which require -- businesses that require commercial vans.

先說商用車方面。當然，我們與亞馬遜簽訂獨家協議已經有一段時間了，我們在過去的財報電話會議上也討論過這一點。所以今天早上我們對此並不感到驚訝。由此，我們一直在與各種商業運營商建立關係，從最後一英里到零售，再到需要商用貨車的企業的各種工業或商業業務案例。

And while the fleet and the use cases are diverse, the one element that's very common for these large fleets is the necessity of running pilots as a way to prep the network or prep the system to ingest a completely different type of vehicle in terms of its need for charging infrastructure and as well as changes to the standard operating procedure for those respective businesses. And so what we'll be announcing soon is a range of different pilot programs that will perceive much larger orders as these large fleets start to plan the electrification of their infrastructure.

雖然車隊和用例各不相同，但這些大型車隊非常常見的一個因素是運行試點的必要性，作為準備網路或準備系統以吸收完全不同類型的車輛的一種方式充電基礎設施的需求以及這些業務標準操作程序的變化。因此，我們很快就會宣布一系列不同的試點計劃，隨著這些大型車隊開始規劃其基礎設施的電氣化，這些計劃將帶來更大的訂單。

As it pertains to R1, we, of course, you can see in the numbers for Q3, we continue to maintain an extremely strong market share position at the price points at which the R1 platform operates. So as you think about volume of vehicles, electric vehicles sold, let's say, at over $75,000 price point, we're a very significant market share player that the brand is connected incredibly well with consumers. And we're seeing that translate to not only continued excitement for the brand, but we see that really manifest as really strong residual values and, in particular, really strong used vehicle pricing. So Google search of used Rivian R1S will just reveal just how robust the pricing and therefore, the demand for these products are.

就 R1 而言，您當然可以在第三季的數據中看到，在 R1 平台營運的價格點上，我們繼續保持極其強勁的市場份額地位。因此，當你考慮到電動車的銷售量時，比如說，價格超過 75,000 美元，我們是一個非常重要的市場份額參與者，該品牌與消費者的聯繫非常好。我們看到這不僅意味著品牌的持續興奮，而且我們看到這真正體現為非常強大的剩餘價值，特別是非常強大的二手車定價。因此，Google搜尋二手 Rivian R1S 只會顯示定價的強度以及對這些產品的需求。

So with that said, this is before we've even launched a number of additional variants that are going to be coming online. We've just recently launched Max Pack. We've launched the Dual-Motor. But early next year, we'll be launching our standard battery pack. We'll be launching additional trim configuration. And importantly, starting now or starting later this month, we're going to be launching, on select models, as you heard Claire and I described in the opening statements, on select models a leasing program, and that leasing program creates a different way for customers to access the product, which is really helpful in an environment with interest rates as we see them today.

話雖如此，這還是在我們推出許多即將上線的其他變體之前。我們最近剛推出了 Max Pack。我們推出了雙馬達。但明年初，我們將推出標準電池組。我們將推出額外的裝飾配置。重要的是，從現在開始或從本月晚些時候開始，我們將在選定的型號上啟動，正如您聽到克萊爾和我在開場白中所描述的那樣，在選定的型號上啟動租賃計劃，而該租賃計劃創造了一種不同的方式讓客戶能夠訪問該產品，這在我們今天看到的利率環境中確實很有幫助。

So we remain very bullish on R1 program and its long-term demand. And as I indicated, I think the RCV platform, our commercial van platform really is, in our view, the best commercial van option available for fleet of -- any sort of large fleet, and we're working very hard to translate that into volume over the course of the next several quarters with these pilot programs that I referred to at the start.

因此，我們仍然非常看好 R1 計劃及其長期需求。正如我所指出的，我認為 RCV 平台，我們的商用貨車平台，在我們看來，確實是任何類型的大型車隊可用的最佳商用貨車選擇，我們正在非常努力地將其轉化為我在開始時提到的這些試點計劃將在接下來的幾個季度中提高銷售量。

Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

Just a quick question on the fourth quarter implied volumes. It looks like they're a fair amount lower than what you did in the third quarter on production.

只是一個關於第四季隱含交易量的簡單問題。看起來它們的產量比第三季的產量低了許多。

I'm just curious, is this is a question of days in the calendar? Or is there something else going on sort of in the plan? Is it what you mentioned on the Amazon deliveries where you might downshift the EDV a little bit? I mean what's going on there?

我只是好奇，這是日曆上的天數問題嗎？或者計劃中還有其他事情發生嗎？這就是您在亞馬遜交貨時提到的，您可能會稍微降低 EDV 的檔位嗎？我的意思是那裡發生了什麼事？

Claire spoke to this in the opening statements, but we have -- we're planning a longer shutdown in the second quarter of 2024 to implement a whole host of changes that introduced a dramatic reduction in our material costs or bill of materials for the R1 platform. But those changes also improve the operations of the plant and allow us to produce vehicles with less labor per vehicle, and therefore, less cost per vehicle.

克萊爾在開場白中談到了這一點，但我們計劃在 2024 年第二季度進行更長的停工，以實施一系列變革，從而大幅降低 R1 的材料成本或材料清單平台。但這些變化也改善了工廠的運營，使我們能夠以更少的勞動力生產每輛車，從而降低每輛車的成本。

Preceding that shutdown in Q2 2024, we have a 1-week shutdown in Q4. And that's planned to do some of the longer lead changes in the plant, and it requires us to shut down all production for approximately a week. So you're certainly seeing that in the numbers. And then I'd say broadly, we're also recognizing some of the days lost around the holidays associated with Christmas and, of course, the New Year Holiday.

在 2024 年第二季關閉之前，我們在第四季度關閉了 1 週。計劃在工廠中進行一些較長的引線更換，這需要我們關閉所有生產約一周。所以你肯定在數字中看到了這一點。然後我想說，廣泛地說，我們也認識到與聖誕節，當然還有一些新年假期相關的假期。

Okay. And then just one follow-up on the physical service network build-out. RJ, how are you sizing that at the moment? Because I mean that's obviously something that you're getting way ahead of the customer needs there. How you're locating, deciding on locations, what's the cost of those? And how are you sizing those?

好的。然後是實體服務網路建置的一項後續行動。 RJ，您目前如何確定規模？因為我的意思是，這顯然是你遠遠領先於客戶需求的東西。您如何定位、決定地點，這些費用是多少？您如何確定這些尺寸？

Yes. As you know, we've -- and we've talked about this in the past, in past earnings calls, we are building a service footprint that relies on both physical brick-and-mortar service locations, we'll have about 50 of those in the U.S. by the end of this year. But supplementing that and actually performing a majority of our service are mobile service vehicles. And our mobile service vehicle fleet, as I said, at the start is more than 400 vehicles, today, it's -- as of, I think, this week, it's 408, but it continues to grow.

是的。如您所知，我們過去已經在過去的財報電話會議中討論過這一點，我們正在建立一個依賴實體實體服務地點的服務足跡，我們將擁有大約 50 個服務地點到今年年底在美國的人數。但補充這一點並實際執行我們大部分服務的是移動服務車輛。正如我所說，我們的行動服務車隊一開始有 400 多輛車，今天，我想，本週截至，它有 408 輛，但它還在繼續增長。

And that the beauty of mobile service-first strategy is from a customer point of view, it's a much easier process. So if there's an issue on the vehicle rather than you as the customer having to deal with the vehicle being dropped off or taken to a service center, we simply come to you, we come to your house, we come to your place of business and perform the service on site. And more than half -- well over half of all of our service operations there, mobile, we expect that to shift into greater than 3/4 of all service operations, will be performed with mobile service.

行動服務優先策略的優點在於從客戶的角度來看，這是一個更容易的過程。因此，如果車輛出現問題，而不是您（作為客戶）需要處理車輛被還車或送往服務中心的問題，我們只需來找您、我們到您家、我們到您的營業地點，現場執行服務。超過一半——遠遠超過我們所有服務業務的一半是行動的，我們預計所有服務業務的 3/4 以上將透過行動服務來執行。

Now that doesn't completely relieve the need for physical infrastructure. The physical infrastructure is important for more significant service activities. And as I said, that's why we continue to grow and invest in that network, and we'll see that growing where -- since we put service locations closest to where we have large pools or large pockets of demand.

現在這並不能完全緩解對實體基礎設施的需求。有形基礎設施對於更重要的服務活動非常重要。正如我所說，這就是我們繼續發展和投資該網路的原因，我們將看到這種網路的成長——因為我們將服務地點最靠近擁有大量需求的地方。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Joseph Spak。

Claire, I know you sort of talked a little bit about some of the puts and takes into next year. But you're right now running at a $65,000 run rate this quarter. So in the context of the downtime and the $150,000 total capacity, how should we be thinking about next year's potential? Is that sort of 65% run rate about the right level you guys are planning for next year?

克萊爾，我知道你談到了明年的一些投入和投入。但本季您目前的運行速度為 65,000 美元。那麼，在停機時間和 15 萬美元總產能的背景下，我們應該如何考慮明年的潛力？ 65% 的運行率是你們明年計劃的正確水準嗎？

So as you mentioned, there's going to be a number of puts and takes overall. And it's important to note that the impacts of the shutdown are temporary in nature, but the benefits will be there for the future, and RJ spoke briefly to -- just the magnitude of technology changes that will be introduced into the R1 vehicles next year that creates a true step change in our material cost road map and past deposit gross profit margin for us as a whole.

正如您所提到的，總體上會有很多看跌期權和看跌期權。值得注意的是，關閉的影響本質上是暫時的，但好處將持續存在，RJ 簡短地談到了明年 R1 車輛將引入的技術變革的規模，為我們整體的材料成本路線圖和過去的存款毛利率創造了真正的階躍變化。

So as you think about the cadence of the year, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, right, we'll start Q1, again, to our current and existing run rate. And then Q2 and Q3 will be heavily impacted quarters from a production standpoint, where we'll take multiple weeks of downtime throughout the course of Q2. And then we'll be ramping up all of the respective variance of R1, both in Q2 and into Q3 as well.

因此，當您考慮今年的節奏時，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們將再次以當前和現有的運行速度開始第一季。從生產的角度來看，第二季和第三季將受到嚴重影響，我們將在整個第二季進行數週的停機。然後我們將在 Q2 和 Q3 中增加 R1 的所有對應變異數。

And then as we've talked about in the past, Q4 becomes that run rate potential for the business where you'll see Rivian continuing to ramp up our volumes from a production standpoint for both R1 as well as our commercial volumes. You'll see the full impacts of each of the new technologies, hitting our material costs, that also coincides with a significant percentage of the commercial cost down opportunity that we have in front of us as well. And so those elements come together in connection as well with Rivian fulfilling our pre-3/1/2022 preorders, which also results in a step change in our average selling price of the vehicle over that period of time as well. So next year is certainly a year of different puts and takes, but that's directionally how I would think about the volume cadence.

然後，正如我們過去討論的那樣，第四季度成為該業務的運行率潛力，從 R1 的生產角度以及我們的商業銷售來看，您會看到 Rivian 繼續增加我們的產量。您將看到每項新技術的全面影響，對我們的材料成本的影響，這也與我們面前的商業成本下降機會的很大一部分相一致。因此，這些因素與 Rivian 履行我們 2022 年 3 月 1 日之前的預訂有關，這也導致我們在此期間車輛的平均售價發生階躍變化。因此，明年肯定是不同的投入和產出的一年，但這就是我對交易量節奏的方向性思考。

Okay. That's helpful. And actually, that delves nicely into my next question. RJ or Claire, I mean, you've talked about this in the past about the higher ASPs with the backlog. And RJ, you sort of mentioned some of the affordability concerns out there on -- in EVs, but really, I'd say, in broader auto as well, at least in the headlines.

好的。這很有幫助。事實上，這很好地探討了我的下一個問題。 RJ 或克萊爾，我的意思是，您過去曾討論過積壓的更高 ASP。 RJ，您提到了電動車中的一些負擔能力問題，但實際上，我想說的是，更廣泛的汽車領域也是如此，至少在頭條新聞中是如此。

So clearly, you have good visibility on your backlog through '24. But how are you thinking about or planning for the margin profile for the business when you -- once you go past that, like if affordability is a greater concern, do you have enough line of sight on cost reduction initiatives or other efforts to sort of help balance out what might be a little bit of a tougher pricing environment?

很明顯，您可以很好地了解 24 年之前的積壓工作。但是，當您超越這一點時，您如何考慮或規劃業務的利潤狀況，例如，如果負擔能力是一個更大的問題，您是否對成本削減計劃或其他努力有足夠的了解幫助平衡可能有點困難的定價環境？

Yes, we've talked about this a bit in the past, but when we think about the R1 platform, we launched with Quad-Motor Large Pack, that's our middle-sized pack and one trim configuration. And what we've done over the last few months as we start to introduce additional build combinations above and beyond that. So we introduced the Dual-Motor, that's built around our Enduro motor platform. We, of course, introduced our Max Pack, which is our largest battery pack. Next year, we'll be introducing our standard pack, which is our smallest battery pack, and we'll be introducing a variety of different trim and build combinations along with that over the course of the next year.

是的，我們過去曾討論過這一點，但當我們考慮 R1 平台時，我們推出了四電機大型包，這是我們的中型包和一個裝飾配置。以及我們在過去幾個月中所做的事情，因為我們開始引入除此之外的其他構建組合。因此，我們推出了雙電機，它是圍繞我們的 Enduro 電機平台構建的。當然，我們推出了 Max Pack，這是我們最大的電池組。明年，我們將推出我們的標準電池組，這是我們最小的電池組，我們將在明年推出各種不同的裝飾和建造組合。

And what that does is it provides us with a broader spread of prices or price choices for consumers on the R1 platform to essentially be able to target both the most price-sensitive customers as well as customers that are looking to buy sort of the fully loaded maximum content vehicle. And what that effectively does is it allows us to benefit from the higher margin profile on these higher price, full content vehicles and balance it with the lower priced, lower content vehicles and still look at it as we look at that in the lens of ASP, still see ASP grow over time. And a big contributor to that which Claire alluded to is as we start to blend in newer pricing and we move past the pre-March 1, 2022 pricing, that's also going to have an accretive effect on overall ASP.

這樣做的作用是，它為我們在 R1 平台上為消費者提供了更廣泛的價格或價格選擇，基本上能夠瞄準對價格最敏感的客戶以及想要購買滿載的客戶最大內容載體。這樣做的有效作用是，它使我們能夠從這些價格較高、內容豐富的車輛的較高利潤率中受益，並將其與價格較低、內容較少的車輛相平衡，並且仍然像我們一樣從ASP 的角度看待它一樣，仍然會看到 ASP 隨著時間的推移而成長。 Claire 提到的一個重要因素是，當我們開始融入新的定價並超越 2022 年 3 月 1 日之前的定價時，這也將對整體 ASP 產生增值效應。

The other thing to keep in mind from a demand point of view, is just the scale of the segments that we're operating in. The (inaudible) space and the pickup segment represent very large pools of demand. And of course, across those large pools of demand, there's a range of prices, but this is a really important element for us, is just recognizing how much overall demand potential there is. And we're seeing with increased awareness and excitement for the brand that translate to lots and lots of new EV customers.

從需求的角度來看，要記住的另一件事是我們正在運作的細分市場的規模。（聽不清楚）空間和皮卡細分市場代表了非常大的需求池。當然，在這些龐大的需求池中，存在著一系列的價格，但這對我們來說是一個非常重要的因素，就是要認識到整體需求潛力有多大。我們看到人們對該品牌的認知度和興奮度不斷提高，這轉化為越來越多的新電動車客戶。

The other thing which is worth just bringing up in the context of some of the negotiations that we've had with R1, is the bill of material cost reductions we're seeing, and these are significant, and we're going to see them quarter-over-quarter -- I've described the performance like this staircase set of changes quarter-over-quarter, with a big step being that which comes in quarter 2 of next year. But we've been able to leverage suppliers excitement for R2 to achieve materially lower costs in our bill of materials that will start to layer in along with what comes in Q2, but even beyond that.

在我們與 R1 進行的一些談判中值得提及的另一件事是我們看到的材料成本削減清單，這些都很重要，我們將會看到它們季度環比——我已經將季度環比的業績描述為階梯式變化，其中一大進步將在明年第二季發生。但我們已經能夠利用供應商對 R2 的興奮來大幅降低我們的物料清單成本，這將開始與第二季度的情況相結合，甚至超出這一範圍。

And so R2 is sort of this incredible carrot for suppliers. And one of the things that's become very clear, particularly in the last 2 to 3 quarters is just how well the Rivian brand is resonating, and suppliers are recognizing relative to some of the other customers just how much volume we're delivering and how much demand there is for our products, relative to a wide variety of established brands, and they recognize that, that excitement for our brand will also translate to lower price points. And the R2 captures the essence of our brand, but of course, with a smaller package and at a much lower price point.

因此，R2 對於供應商來說是一種不可思議的胡蘿蔔。其中一件事變得非常明顯，特別是在過去 2 到 3 個季度，Rivian 品牌的共鳴有多好，供應商相對於其他一些客戶認識到我們交付的數量和交付量相對於各種知名品牌，人們對我們的產品有需求，他們意識到，對我們品牌的興奮也將轉化為更低的價格。 R2 抓住了我們品牌的精髓，但當然，它的包裝更小，價格也低得多。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克‧德萊尼 (Mark Delaney)。

You reiterated your view to be gross margin positive in 2024, but I'm hoping to better understand your views in how Rivian will get there have changed at all recently, given the volatility in the industry more broadly with competitors cutting EV vehicle prices but also costs falling and Rivian, as you've described, making so much progress on its own cost structure.

您重申了您對2024 年毛利率為正的看法，但我希望更好地理解您對Rivian 將如何實現這一目標的看法最近發生了根本變化，考慮到行業更廣泛的波動性，競爭對手降低了電動車價格，但也正如您所描述的，成本不斷下降，而 Rivian 在自身成本結構方面取得了巨大進展。

Thanks, Mark. I'll let Claire jump in on this as well. This is just such an important topic. And ultimately, there's -- I just spoke to it a bit, but there's a few major levers.

謝謝，馬克。我也會讓克萊爾參與。這是一個非常重要的主題。最終，我只是談了一下，但有幾個主要的槓桿。

The first being, the continued ramp-up of our production facility and the fixed cost absorption that comes with that. We're seeing the benefits of that quarter-over-quarter as we continue to ramp. So it's numerically very easy to understand.

首先是我們生產設施的持續擴張以及隨之而來的固定成本吸收。隨著我們繼續擴張，我們看到了季度環比的好處。所以從數字上來說很容易理解。

The second, which is maybe less -- it's not as easy to see without having a look into all of our supplier negotiations and discussions is the significant progress we're making contractually with redefining bill of material costs or raw material costs through negotiations with suppliers, through resourcing of new suppliers or through changes to the component or system design to achieve those cost reductions. And the shutdown that we have in second quarter of next year of 2024 will allow us to implement a large bundling of all of those changes, both in terms of suppliers, part design changes, component changes. I've talked about this a lot in the past, but massive consolidation of our ECU topology, massive simplification of our harness, simplification of our body structure, simplification of the HVAC system in the vehicle. So there's big changes that are going to be coming as part of that shutdown.

第二個可能較少 - 如果不查看我們所有的供應商談判和討論，就不容易看到，這是我們通過與供應商談判重新定義材料成本或原材料成本的合同取得的重大進展，通過尋找新供應商的資源或透過更改組件或系統設計來實現成本降低。我們將於 2024 年第二季關閉，這將使我們能夠實施所有這些變更的大量捆綁，無論是在供應商、零件設計變更還是組件變更方面。我過去已經多次談論過這個問題，但是我們的ECU拓撲的大規模整合，我們的線束的大規模簡化，我們的車身結構的簡化，車輛中HVAC系統的簡化。因此，作為關閉的一部分，將會發生重大變化。

And we saw similar -- it's worth noting with the commercial vehicle, with the EDV, when we had the shutdown earlier this year, we had a 35% reduction in our material costs associated with the consolidated set of changes we made with that shutdown. So we're expecting and anticipating a similar level of step change in our material costs following the shutdown.

我們也看到了類似的情況——值得注意的是，在商用車和EDV 領域，當我們今年早些時候停產時，我們的材料成本降低了35%，這與我們在停產期間所做的一系列綜合變化相關。因此，我們預期停產後材料成本將出現類似程度的階躍變化。

And then lastly, which I spoke to a moment ago is growth in ASP. And that's going to be both due to the layering in or the feathering in of new pricing, which again, we'll just see quarter-over-quarter as more and more of our deliveries are associated with new pricing, meaning post-March 1, 2022, as we work through that. And then the other is the introduction of some of these new trim packages, Max Pack, is an example. We have some new trim configurations going to be coming out next year that will also help us grow ASP. So it's a combination of ramp, material cost and ASP that give us a very high degree of confidence in our long-term gross margin for the business.

最後，我剛才談到的是 ASP 的成長。這將是由於新定價的分層或羽化造成的，同樣，我們只會看到季度環比，因為我們越來越多的交付與新定價相關，這意味著 3 月 1 日之後，2022 年，我們正在努力解決這個問題。然後另一個是介紹一些新的裝飾套件，Max Pack就是一個例子。我們明年將推出一些新的裝飾配置，這也將有助於我們提高平均售價。因此，產量、材料成本和平均售價的結合使我們對業務的長期毛利率充滿信心。

And my follow-up was on a related topic on margins. Last quarter, you spoke about your expectation for R1 to be contribution margin positive exiting this year. Is that still your expectation?

我的後續行動是關於利潤的相關主題。上個季度，您談到了今年退出的 R1 貢獻率為正的預期。這還是你的期望嗎？

Mark, we still expect R1 to be contribution margin positive exiting this year for newly priced units.

馬克，我們仍然預期今年新定價單位的 R1 貢獻率為正。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris McNally with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

Sorry to follow on the same topic. But if we -- I wanted to look at that sort of the shape of the gross profit progression as we think about next year.

抱歉繼續關注同一主題。但如果我們——我想看看我們明年考慮的毛利進展的形狀。

And so -- and just paraphrasing, could we think about this minus 30 -- 2,000 per vehicle as sort of linearly getting better in Q4 and Q1? And then obviously, there's a big step change. You talked about all of the massive improvements in the architecture of Q2. You have some re-ramp in Q3. So I don't want to put -- it's going to be a more complex number.

那麼，換句話說，我們是否可以將每輛車的負 30 - 2,000 視為在第四季度和第一季線性改善？顯然，發生了很大的變化。您談到了第二季架構中的所有重大改進。你在第三季有一些重新調整。所以我不想輸入——這將是一個更複雜的數字。

But coming out of Q3 into Q4, that's where we should start to really see the gross profit ramp probably well through positive because then, obviously, you have targets in 2025 that include double-digit gross profit. Does that sound like a shape where you get a big change out of the Q2, Q3 into Q4 because that's where a large amount of the architecture costs change out?

但從第三季度進入第四季度，我們應該開始真正看到毛利可能會大幅成長，因為那時，顯然，你的 2025 年目標包括兩位數的毛利。這聽起來像是從第二季、第三季到第四季發生重大變化的形狀嗎？因為這是大量架構成本改變的地方？

Yes. So Chris, as you think about the near-term cadence, one area I wanted to just call out is, as I mentioned in Rob's question, EDV was a significant contributor to our Q3 margin improvement itself. And so as you look to Q4, given the seasonality of Amazon's business, that will be a fraction of the volume that they took in Q3 of this year. And so you won't see this linear path from Q3 to Q4 in terms of the gross profit losses per unit, they are just given some of the mix shift.

是的。所以，克里斯，當你考慮近期節奏時，我想指出的一個領域是，正如我在 Rob 的問題中提到的那樣，EDV 本身對我們第三季利潤率的改善做出了重要貢獻。因此，當你展望第四季時，考慮到亞馬遜業務的季節性，這將只是他們今年第三季業務量的一小部分。因此，就單位毛利潤損失而言，您不會看到從第三季到第四季的線性路徑，它們只是進行了一些混合轉變。

As you look to Q1, you'll see more similar types of dynamics, especially as you start to ramp up greater volumes of our Enduro Drive units, where you're seeing some of the new technology introductions that we have in R1, you'll see the benefits of Max Pack as well, throughout the course of Q4 and Q1, that are contributing to the cost down road map for R1.

當您觀察第一季時，您會看到更多類似的動態類型，特別是當您開始增加我們的 Enduro Drive 單元的數量時，您會看到我們在 R1 中引入的一些新技術，您'在整個第四季和第一季中，我們還將看到Max Pack 的優勢，這有助於降低R1 的成本路線圖。

And then as you mentioned, if you were to just look at the material cost trajectory, that's where you'll see the significant step change, really in the second half of 2024, as each of the new technologies that we'll be introducing will start to go into production in the line as well. And so that's going to be that step change in terms of gross margin improvement.

然後，正如您所提到的，如果您只看材料成本軌跡，您將看到重大的步驟變化，實際上是在 2024 年下半年，因為我們將推出的每項新技術都將也開始投入生產線生產。因此，這將是毛利率改善的一步變化。

However, that step change will be mitigated by some volume-related impacts given our production rates for Q2 and Q3. And so Q4 is where you'll see more of the run rate potential coming out of the shutdown itself, and the full complement of material cost downs included within the vehicles themselves.

然而，考慮到我們第二季和第三季的生產力，一些與產量相關的影響將緩解這一階躍變化。因此，在第四季度，您將看到停工本身帶來的更多運行率潛力，以及車輛本身所包含的材料成本全面下降。

Makes sense. So there's a lot of moving parts. But basically, if we think about next year, there's a Q1 clean quarter, and Q4, obviously, clean, again, there will be the EDV issues then. But basically, it all comes out of Q4. So okay, in terms of the shape, that all makes sense.

說得通。所以有很多移動部件。但基本上，如果我們考慮明年，第一季將是乾淨的季度，而第四季度顯然也是乾淨的，那麼屆時將會出現 EDV 問題。但基本上，這一切都來自第四季。好吧，就形狀而言，這一切都是有道理的。

One of the areas you've also been really improving upon has been on the OpEx side. And I'm just curious how do we think about if we run rate going into next year, when do we have to start to build in some OpEx for Georgia prework, some obviously can be capitalized. But do we have to start to build in an OpEx investment as I think about for '24.

您一直在真正改進的領域之一是營運支出方面。我只是很好奇，如果我們的運行速度進入明年，我們什麼時候必須開始為喬治亞州前期工作建立一些營運支出，其中一些顯然可以資本化。但我們是否必須像我在 24 世紀所考慮的那樣開始進行營運支出投資？

As you think about the OpEx drivers, you'll start to see Georgia pick up in '24. But beyond that, you'll also see more material investments as we approach the 2024 shutdown to introduce new technology. So as our team today is increasing the number of prototypes we're building in advance of the shutdown and increasing the level of engineering, design and development work that we're doing with our supply partners for those new technology introductions, you're seeing a little bit of a tick up of R&D that you'll see throughout the second half of this year and into the first half of next year itself.

當您考慮營運支出驅動因素時，您將開始看到喬治亞州在 24 年有所回升。但除此之外，隨著我們在 2024 年關閉以引入新技術，您還將看到更多的物質投資。因此，隨著我們的團隊今天增加我們在停工前建造的原型數量，並提高我們與供應合作夥伴為引入新技術而進行的工程、設計和開發工作的水平，您會看到從今年下半年到明年上半年，你會看到研發的一點成長。

But in aggregate, we don't expect a material increase. We'll certainly see some continued increases across the board, but we'll continue to maintain sort of the slight increased level that we've seen of late over the longer term.

但總的來說，我們預計不會出現實質成長。我們肯定會看到全面的持續成長，但從長遠來看，我們將繼續保持我們最近看到的略微成長的水平。

Our next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐爾·羅斯納 (Emmanuel Rosner)。

So it's exciting to hear that you'll be able to sell the commercial vehicles to other customers. I was wondering if you can try and help us with a directional sense of volume split between that and the Amazon one, and also timing. So after the reweight next year, you'll have, I think, 65,000 units of capacity for the -- in the commercial vehicles. How quickly or around what time line do you think that you would be able to essentially fill that capacity between your current customers and any new one?

因此，聽到您將能夠將商用車出售給其他客戶，真是令人興奮。我想知道你是否可以嘗試幫助我們了解該產品與亞馬遜產品之間的體積方向感以及時間分配。因此，明年重新調整重量後，我認為商用車的產能將達到 65,000 輛。您認為您能夠在多快或大約什麼時間範圍內基本上填補當前客戶和任何新客戶之間的容量？

As I spoke to before, the sales process for commercial customers really is that relatively long sort of lead time process whereby it's important for these large fleet operators to run pilot programs, both to understand the unique idiosyncrasies of the vehicle, but also to understand what changes are necessary from an infrastructure point of view.

正如我之前所說，商業客戶的銷售流程實際上是一個相對較長的交付週期，對於這些大型車隊運營商來說，運行試點計劃非常重要，既要了解車輛的獨特特性，又要了解什麼從基礎設施的角度來看，改變是必要的。

And as is often the case, where the vehicles will be based out of their "hub" wasn't originally designed with a lot of power. So it doesn't have necessarily power to support daily charging or night charging of the vehicles. And that takes time to install that. We've learned this -- some of the challenges associated with converting existing facilities to support large EV fleets. We've learned this through the lens of our relationship with Amazon very quickly.

與通常的情況一樣，車輛將基於其“中心”，最初設計時並沒有很大的動力。所以它不一定有能力支援車輛的日常充電或夜間充電。安裝它需要時間。我們已經了解了這一點——改造現有設施以支持大型電動車車隊相關的一些挑戰。我們透過與亞馬遜的關係很快就了解了這一點。

And so those pilot programs which will be kicking off, we'll be announcing a number of them shortly, will lead to larger volumes, but we want to be careful to just set expectations in the right way that these pilot programs will take some time. And so we think of this as some volume associated with both the pilots and orders that come following the pilots in 2024, but the significant opportunity really starts to kick in, in 2025 as these larger customers transition from pilot to at scale development.

因此，那些即將啟動的試點計劃，我們將很快宣布其中一些，將導致更大的數量，但我們希望謹慎地以正確的方式設定預期，這些試點計劃將需要一些時間。因此，我們認為這是與 2024 年試點和試點之後的訂單相關的一些數量，但隨著這些較大的客戶從試點過渡到大規模開發，重要的機會在 2025 年才真正開始顯現。

Okay. That's helpful. And then my second question is on CapEx. So obviously, quite a big cut again to this year's guidance. I think you've mentioned among other factors, timing delays. I guess historically when you've lowered the CapEx over the last few quarters or so, there was no real increase in CapEx for the future periods. But how should we think about this particular cost? Like are you going to see something next year in terms of CapEx at higher than what you previously contemplated or in the end, you can leave it at your regular framework?

好的。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於資本支出。顯然，今年的指導方針再次大幅下調。我認為您提到了其他因素，其中包括時間延遲。我想從歷史上看，當你在過去幾個季度左右降低資本支出時，未來時期的資本支出並沒有真正增加。但我們該如何考慮這個特殊的成本呢？就像您明年會看到資本支出高於您先前的預期嗎？或者最終您可以將其保留在常規框架中嗎？

So Emmanuel, what we've talked about in the past has been approximately $2 billion or on average, between '23 and '24. I'd say that we'll be in a position to be below that average, just slightly below that average, if you think about the trajectory and the significance of cuts that we've had in 2023 itself. It's really been driven by both some improvements that we've had in terms of longer-dated payment terms, on some of the work that we're doing within our production facility and with our equipment purchases as well as the episodic nature of some of our investments predominantly surrounding the shutdown and introduction of new technologies that's really the largest contributor to the reductions that we've made this year that will hit in the early part of '24.

Emmanuel，我們過去討論過的金額約為 20 億美元，或者說，23 年至 24 年期間的平均金額約為 20 億美元。我想說，如果你考慮 2023 年削減的軌跡和意義，我們將處於低於平均水平的位置，僅略低於平均水平。這實際上是由我們在較長期付款條件、我們在生產設施內所做的一些工作和設備採購方面所做的一些改進以及某些項目的間歇性所推動的。我們的投資主要圍繞關閉和引進新技術，這實際上是我們今年將在24 年初實現的減排的最大貢獻者。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的科林·蘭根 (Colin Langan)。

If I look at gross profit ex the LCNRV, it's trending, I think, close to $38,000 a vehicle, and that has improved a lot from Q1, where I think it was close to [$80,000], but still quite a big gap to get to the gross profit. I mean I think in Q1, you kind of framed like a certain percent was leverage, certain price, service engineering, certain price downs. Any sort of framework how we get from the sort of 38,000 today to the breakeven, what are sort of the main drivers from here? Is it mostly the pricing and engineering at this point? Or is there still some leverage or?

如果我看一下除LCNRV 之外的毛利，我認為它的趨勢接近每輛車38,000 美元，這比第一季度有了很大改善，我認為第一季接近[80,000 美元]，但仍然有相當大的差距至毛利。我的意思是，我認為在第一季度，你有點像一定百分比的槓桿、一定的價格、服務工程、一定的價格下跌。我們如何從今天的 38,000 美元達到損益平衡，有什麼框架，主要驅動因素是什麼？目前主要是定價和工程嗎？還是說還有一定的槓桿作用？

So the 3 drivers remain as you think about them being the fixed cost leverage that we'll get from increased volume from current state to the end of 2024, as well as the material cost down trajectory and improvements in average selling price as a whole.

因此，這 3 個驅動因素仍然存在，即固定成本槓桿（從當前狀態到 2024 年底的產量增加），以及材料成本下降軌跡和整體平均售價的改善。

As you look at the progress that we've made over the course of this year, that's largely been driven by the improvements that we've seen in fixed cost leverage from the production ramp as well as the progress that we've been making on material costs, given the technologies we've introduced in EDV, which RJ referenced, resulted in a 35% improvement in our material cost in the EDV itself, and then continued progress against both the introduction of new technologies such as the Dual-Motor introductions that we've had in R1.

當你看到我們今年取得的進展時，你會發現這很大程度上是由於我們在產量成長中看到的固定成本槓桿的改善以及我們在考慮到我們在EDV 中引入的技術（RJ 引用的），材料成本使我們在EDV 本身的材料成本降低了35%，然後在引入雙電機等新技術的同時繼續取得進展我們在 R1 中就有過。

And then beyond that, we've also continued to see progress, as RJ mentioned, in the visibility that we have today in our contractual agreements with supplier partners that are continuing to come down as we look both to the business in the future.

除此之外，正如 RJ 所提到的，我們繼續看到進展，我們今天與供應商合作夥伴的合約協議的可見性隨著我們對未來業務的展望而不斷下降。

The other key that we've seen has been around the commodities environment and backdrop. And to date, you're not really seeing the softness in some of the key battery cell raw materials reflected in our current results. So some of that trajectory is still to come as you think about impacts for the end of this year and into 2024 as well.

我們看到的另一個關鍵是大宗商品環境和背景。到目前為止，您還沒有真正看到我們當前的結果所反映的一些關鍵電池原料的疲軟。因此，當你考慮到今年年底和 2024 年的影響時，其中一些軌跡仍將出現。

I think Claire and I both spoke to this, but it's important to call out, when we talk about material cost reductions and pulling overall our BOM costs down, these are contractual, meaning, this isn't like us sitting over here, hoping that this is going to come down. These are detailed contractual negotiations, part by part, supplier by supplier, and the effectivity data in some of these where it's, let's say, just a pure negotiation on a part that's not going to change or on a supply that's not going to change, we've been able to accelerate the effectivity date to have already happened or to be happening prior to the shutdown in Q2 of 2024.

我想克萊爾和我都談到了這一點，但重要的是要指出，當我們談論材料成本削減和整體 BOM 成本下降時，這些都是合約性的，意思是，這不像我們坐在這裡，希望這將會下降。這些是詳細的合約談判，逐個部分，逐個供應商，以及其中一些的有效性數據，比如說，只是對不會改變的零件或不會改變的供應的純粹談判，我們已經能夠將生效日期提前到2024 年第二季關閉之前已經發生或即將發生的情況。

But for some of the larger changes and things like, let's say, for example, the significant consolidation of ECUs that we're driving or the massive refactoring of our harness that takes roughly 25% of the harness length out. Those involve engineering changes that involve new suppliers and completely new supplier contracts. And so the bundling of some of those big multi-thousand dollar changes that have effectivity dates in April, it's -- we have 100% confidence those are going to occur. Those are -- again, I'm using the word here is -- clearly, again, these are contractual agreements. But the contractual agreements have an effectivity date and they tie to when we start production with those new components.

但對於一些較大的變化以及諸如我們正在駕駛的 ECU 的重大整合或對線束的大規模重構（大約減少了 25% 的線束長度）之類的事情。這些涉及工程變更，涉及新的供應商和全新的供應商合約。因此，將一些價值數千美元的重大變更捆綁在一起，這些變更將於 4 月生效，我們有 100% 的信心這些變更將會發生。這些——再一次，我在這裡使用這個詞——顯然，再一次，這些是合約協議。但合約協議有一個生效日期，並且與我們開始生產這些新組件的時間有關。

So as we look at this transition, the continued ramp, as I said earlier, that's -- we understand the -- that's just the numerics of fixed cost absorption. And on the BOM cost side, it's just understanding what -- I understand it's hard for all of you to see, but very clear for us to see the contractual obligations that we've negotiated with all of our suppliers.

因此，當我們審視這一轉變時，正如我之前所說，持續的成長，我們理解，這只是固定成本吸收的數字。在 BOM 成本方面，這只是了解——我知道你們所有人都很難看到，但我們很清楚地看到我們與所有供應商協商的合約義務。

I guess I think in Q1, you had kind of indicated half of the gap was leverage and then it was like 1/4 price, and then 1/4 is supplier and engineering. At this point where you have already cut it in half, I mean how should we think between those 3 items? Is it now equally 1/3, 1/3 each of what's going to drive that closing that gap? I guess I was trying to gauge the size of what's left.

我想我認為在第一季度，你已經表明一半的差距是槓桿，然後就像 1/4 的價格，然後 1/4 是供應商和工程。現在你已經把它減半了，我的意思是我們應該如何考慮這三個項目？現在是否同樣各佔 1/3、1/3 來推動縮小這一差距？我想我是在試圖衡量剩下的東西的大小。

Colin, we're not going to provide an update specifically to the bridge that we had commented on. But as I mentioned, the significance in the progress that we've seen to date has really been driven by fixed cost leverage from production ramp and some of the progress in our material cost-down trajectory. So you can extrapolate that to understand those sort of relative reweighting of those 3 key drivers for us.

科林，我們不會專門針對我們評論過的橋樑提供更新。但正如我所提到的，我們迄今為止所看到的進展的重要性實際上是由產量成長的固定成本槓桿以及我們的材料成本下降軌跡中的一些進展所推動的。因此，您可以推斷出這一點，以了解我們對這 3 個關鍵驅動因素的相對重新權重。

Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Levy with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jordan Levy 與 Truist Securities 的對話。

It's Henry on for Jordan here. Just had a quick one around some of the current macro news on EV demand. I just want to get a sense of any small changes in your thinking around the launch of R2, timing, et cetera, due to this? Or do you think the backdrop for EV is -- be substantially improved by the time it rolls out in 2026?

亨利替補喬丹登場。剛剛快速了解了當前有關電動車需求的一些宏觀新聞。我只是想了解一下，您對 R2 的推出、時間安排等方面的想法是否因此發生了任何微小的變化？或者您認為電動車的背景會在 2026 年推出時大幅改善？

Ultimately, as we look at, I'd say, broadly beyond even R2, just at the space, I think there is an overreaction to some of the short-term headwinds -- short or medium-term headwinds we see between interest rates being at record high levels. And of course, those aren't going to drop down anytime in the next month or 2, but this is something that will recover over time, and some of the geopolitical challenges that we have across the world.

最終，正如我們所看到的，我想說，就在這個空間上，我認為，甚至遠遠超出了R2，我認為對一些短期不利因素反應過度——我們在利率和利率之間看到的短期或中期不利因素。創歷史新高。當然，這些在下個月或兩個月內不會下降，但隨著時間的推移，以及我們在世界各地面臨的一些地緣政治挑戰，這些都會恢復。

So if you look at R2 launching in 2026, everything about R2 in terms of its ability to -- and our deep confidence in its ability to capture the essence of our brand. We're enormously excited about the product, but to do it at a price point that's considerably lower than what we have in R1 and at a form factor, a size that makes it sort of fit from an addressable market point of view, fit the largest segment in the United States.

因此，如果您看看 2026 年推出的 R2，您會發現 R2 的一切能力，以及我們對其捕捉我們品牌精髓的能力的堅定信心。我們對這款產品感到非常興奮，但要以比 R1 低得多的價格和外形尺寸來實現它，從目標市場的角度來看，它的尺寸要適合美國最大的細分市場。

We couldn't be more excited and bullish on this product. And we think the timing of it works out beautifully in terms of the brand buildup that we're driving with R1 and off the back of that to then have a product that is sized physically in terms of its footprint as well as priced such that it can really capture the hearts and minds of buyers but also give customers a real choice. There's an extreme vacuum of choice we feel in the sort of $45,000 to $50,000 price range for midsize SUVs. There's just not a lot of great options. And as a result, we see very highly concentrated market share with Tesla, but we believe there's a need for alternatives, and those alternatives need to be very robustly developed, with vertically integrated software electronics and a deeply seamless user experience, user interface which is, of course, what we're developing with R2.

我們對這款產品感到非常興奮和樂觀。我們認為，就我們透過 R1 推動的品牌建設而言，它的時機非常完美，並在此基礎上推出一款產品，該產品的物理尺寸和定價都使其能夠滿足 R1 的需求。既能真正俘獲買家的心，又能給顧客一個真正的選擇。我們認為，中型 SUV 價格範圍在 45,000 美元到 50,000 美元之間，選擇範圍極其真空。只是沒有太多好的選擇。因此，我們看到特斯拉的市場份額非常集中，但我們相信需要替代品，而這些替代品需要非常穩健地開發，具有垂直整合的軟體電子設備和深度無縫的用戶體驗，用戶介面是當然，我們正在使用R2 開發什麼。

And then kind of just piggybacking off the software space, could you just update us again on some of the monetization opportunities you all see in the software segment kind of into next year and then kind of longer term?

然後，在軟體領域，您能否再次向我們介紹一下你們在軟體領域看到的明年乃至更長期的一些獲利機會？

We've spoken about this before, but we really believe in terms of the large-scale opportunities to monetize, I think the most -- the model that we think is going to fit and has shown to fit the most is around autonomy. And as we look at higher levels of autonomy, the ability to charge for that. And there's a variety of ways that can be done, monthly payments as well as upfront payment for access to a higher level of autonomy.

我們之前已經談過這一點，但我們確實相信大規模的貨幣化機會，我認為最合適的模式是圍繞自治，我們認為最適合併且已經證明最適合的模式。當我們著眼於更高水準的自主權時，即收費的能力。可以透過多種方式完成，每月付款以及預付款以獲得更高級別的自主權。

We do think there's been an over -- there's been over -- it's been overestimated how much vehicle manufacturers can charge for every software feature. So the way that we think about it is the features that have a lot of complexity and require a lot of development, autonomy being a great example of that, some of what we think of as some of the really interesting immersive user experiences, particularly as you start to think about AR, and the way that the vehicle can interact with its environment. We think those represent opportunities for an incremental charge above and beyond the base platform.

我們確實認為，汽車製造商可以對每項軟體功能收取的費用已經被高估了。因此，我們認為這些功能非常複雜，需要大量開發，自治就是一個很好的例子，我們認為一些非常有趣的沉浸式使用者體驗，特別是你開始考慮 AR 以及車輛與其環境互動的方式。我們認為這些代表了在基礎平台之上進行增量收費的機會。

But like the idea of charging for heated seats or charging for sort of a binary 1 or 0 like turning a feature on and off, we don't think that, that's going to land well with consumers, and we don't think that that's going to be a sustained model for charging for software. We think it really ties to the much more complex, much more heavy development platforms.

但是，就像為加熱座椅充電或為某種二進制1 或0 充電（例如打開和關閉某個功能）的想法一樣，我們認為這不會受到消費者的歡迎，而且我們認為這也不會受到消費者的歡迎。將成為軟體收費的持續模式。我們認為它確實與更複雜、更繁重的開發平台有關。

Our last question is from Alex Potter with Piper Sandler.

我們的最後一個問題來自亞歷克斯·波特和派珀·桑德勒。

Perfect. Was wondering if you could give us an update on your battery strategy. I know that historically, you've been working in-house, potentially and having your own chemistry, your own sell. You've spoken relatively favorably about LFP. Any changes in your thinking there about what you're doing now and also looking forward to R2?

完美的。想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關您的電池策略的最新資訊。我知道，從歷史上看，你一直在內部工作，有潛力，有自己的化學反應，自己的銷售。您對 LFP 的評價相對較好。您對現在正在做的事情以及對 R2 的期望有什麼改變嗎？

So this is a space that's rapidly evolving. And as we look out over the next decade, one of the things that's become very clear through both the lens of policy, but also through the lens of securing long-term supply is the upstream supply of some of the raw materials. So lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate, of course, nickel, thinking also very much and more recently about graphite. And each of these upstream raw materials has different implications around the cell manufacturing itself. So something like graphite, of course, has very closely tied relation to the anode chemistry, whereas, let's say, lithium hydroxide is a little bit more commoditized and easier to integrate into a downstream supply.

所以這是一個正在快速發展的空間。當我們展望未來十年時，無論從政策角度還是從確保長期供應的角度來看，都變得非常清楚的事情之一是一些原材料的上游供應。因此，氫氧化鋰、碳酸鋰，當然還有鎳，最近人們對石墨的思考也非常多。這些上游原料中的每一種對電池製造本身都有不同的影響。當然，像石墨這樣的東西與陽極化學有著非常密切的關係，而氫氧化鋰則更加商品化，更容易整合到下游供應中。

And so where we've been spending a lot of time is building a very robust strategy around each of the components of the cell and each of the raw materials of the cell from an upstream relationship point of view and also making sure that those upstream relationships and the way we want to engage with those upstream suppliers integrates with the way we've structured our deals with battery cell suppliers. And in the case of R2, this is really important given the role that IRA is going to play in terms of driving advantaged pricing with the consumer-facing tax credit and the effect that, that will have in terms of consumer behavior.

因此，我們花了很多時間從上游關係的角度圍繞細胞的每個組件和細胞的每種原材料建立一個非常穩健的策略，並確保這些上游關係我們希望與這些上游供應商合作的方式與我們與電池供應商達成交易的方式結合。就 R2 而言，考慮到 IRA 將在透過面向消費者的稅收抵免來推動優勢定價方面發揮的作用，以及這對消費者行為的影響，這一點非常重要。

So we're incredibly focused on upstream supply. I also think that the last 18 months have been a really challenging environment in that, particularly if you think about what happened in 2022 and into the beginning of 2023, where there was, I would say, a lot of bad deals done in the upstream raw material supply, where people were overpaying and inflating the market and it made it hard to do a good deal. We sort of watched some of that play out. And I'd say in the aftermath of some of that exuberance, there's now a lot more rational deals that are on the table in terms of securing some of that upstream supply of raw materials.

因此，我們非常關注上游供應。我還認為，過去 18 個月是一個非常具有挑戰性的環境，特別是考慮到 2022 年和 2023 年初發生的事情，我想說，上游發生了很多糟糕的交易原材料供應，人們支付過高，導致市場膨脹，很難達成好交易。我們有點看著其中的一些上演。我想說，在經歷了一些繁榮之後，在確保部分上游原材料供應方面，現在有更多理性的交易擺在桌面上。

Great. Okay. That was going to be my next question. So I guess maybe one last one, just a simple one. How many pre-March 1st orders do you still have in the backlog, presumably, there shouldn't be very many of them left. At what point is that going to be completely cleaned?

偉大的。好的。這將是我的下一個問題。所以我想也許是最後一個，只是一個簡單的。你們還有多少 3 月 1 日之前的訂單積壓，大概應該不多了。什麼時候才能徹底清理乾淨？

Alex, we'll continue to work through the pre-March 1st preorder base as a whole. And as we've talked about in the past, they'll be feathered in both new orders as well as pre-March 1st orders, especially as we expand our production to include more Dual-Motor units, which weren't available to those pre-March 1st consumers originally. And we'll introduce Max Pack, and there's a variety of new introductions over the course of 2024 as well. So you'll continue to see both new orders as well as our pre-March 1st preorders feathered in together.

Alex，我們將繼續處理 3 月 1 日之前的整個預購基礎。正如我們過去談到的，它們將在新訂單和3 月1 日之前的訂單中得到體現，特別是當我們擴大生產以包括更多雙電機裝置時，這些裝置對那些人來說是不可用的。原本是3月1日之前的消費者。我們將推出 Max Pack，在 2024 年還會推出各種新產品。因此，您將繼續看到新訂單以及我們 3 月 1 日之前的預購訂單。

I'd now like to turn the call back over to RJ Scaringe, for closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉回給 RJ Scaringe，讓其結束語。

Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us on the call today. We've spent the -- at the time, over the last quarter, really continue to focus on things we've said we're going to focus on, driving up production volume and achieving better fixed cost leverage, achieving meaningful reductions in our material costs from a bill of materials point of view, working on building out our commercial and go-to-market operations to allow us to, not only continue driving demand, but to continue driving up our ASPs, and importantly, focused on developing our next set of products around the R2 platform, which, as you heard me say, we couldn't be more excited about and really looking forward to showing to the world in the early part of next year.

好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。在上個季度，我們確實繼續專注於我們說過要關注的事情，提高產量並實現更好的固定成本槓桿，實現有意義的減少從材料清單的角度來看，材料成本，致力於建立我們的商業和上市業務，使我們不僅能夠繼續推動需求，而且能夠繼續提高我們的平均售價，更重要的是，專注於開發我們的產品圍繞R2 平台的下一組產品，正如您所聽到的，我們對此感到無比興奮，並非常期待在明年初向世界展示。

As we now look out and particularly with all the discussion around long-term EV penetration and the timing for EV penetration, I want to just end by saying, we remain deeply convicted around the transition of the entirety of our transportation space, and we're committed to building customers -- or building products that our customers absolutely love and building a brand around those products that continues to resonate across a variety of price points in a variety of form factors which, of course, the R2 platform will really help deliver on.

正如我們現在所看到的，特別是關於長期電動車普及率和電動車普及時機的所有討論，我想說的是，我們仍然對整個交通領域的轉型深信不疑，並且我們致力於培養客戶，或打造我們的客戶絕對喜愛的產品，並圍繞這些產品打造一個能夠在各種價格點、各種外形尺寸上持續產生共鳴的品牌，當然，R2 平台將真正幫助交付在。

So with that, thank you, everyone for joining. Look forward to our next call.

所以，謝謝大家的加入。期待我們的下一次通話。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。