美盛公司 (MOS) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2024 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

Your host for today's call is Jason Tremblay. Jason, you may begin.

今天會議的主持人是 Jason Tremblay。Jason，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and welcome to our second-quarter 2024 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer; followed by a fireside chat, then open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial, will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Bruce Bodine 提供；接著是爐邊談話，然後進入開放式問答。執行副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland，以及執行副總裁（商務）Jenny Wang 也將出席回答各位的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並可能受到重大風險與不確定性影響。

Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿以及提交美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的報告中。我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們的新聞稿與績效資料亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce.

現在我想把電話會議交給 Bruce。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our second-quarter earnings discussion. Before we begin, I want to acknowledge that we have recently experienced some serious safety incidents. We take safety extremely seriously, and we are working to further improve our culture to ensure our people go home safe after every shift.

早安。感謝各位參加我們第二季財報討論。在開始之前，我想先提及我們近期發生了一些嚴重的安全事件。我們極度重視安全，並正努力進一步改善我們的文化，以確保每位同仁在每個班次結束後都能平安回家。

Moving on to our earnings discussion. This morning, I will add some color to the information we published and then we'll get to your questions. This was another solid quarter for Mosaic, both in terms of our results and our operational progress. For the quarter, Mosaic delivered adjusted EBITDA of $584 million on revenues of $2.8 billion, compared with adjusted EBITDA of $744 million and revenues of $3.4 billion a year ago. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $0.54 compared with $1.04 in 2023.

接著進入我們的財報討論。今天早上，我會對我們已發布的資訊補充一些說明，然後我們將回答各位的問題。對 Mosaic 而言，這又是一個穩健的季度，無論是就業績表現或營運進展而言皆是如此。本季 Mosaic 的調整後 EBITDA 為 5.84 億美元，營收為 28 億美元；相較之下，去年同期調整後 EBITDA 為 7.44 億美元，營收為 34 億美元。本季調整後每股盈餘為 0.54 美元，2023 年同期為 1.04 美元。

We are making good progress across our strategic initiatives, both to grow the company and manage costs, and our market outlook remains constructive. I'll start with the actions we are taking to strengthen the business for the long term. We are hyper focused on managing costs, and we're making good progress across G&A, operating, and capital expenditures.

我們在各項策略性計畫上持續取得良好進展，既推動公司成長也管理成本，而我們對市場的展望仍然偏向正面。我先從我們為強化長期競爭力所採取的行動談起。我們高度聚焦於成本管理，並在一般與行政費用（G&A）、營運費用與資本支出方面都取得良好進展。

Hence, the announcement of our $150 million expense reduction program between SG&A and cost control measures implemented in Brazil, we have already achieved more than one-third of the annual run rate cost savings target. This does not include phosphate fixed cost absorption resulting from higher production volumes in the second quarter. We have also executed Phase 1 of our third-party contractor reduction plant in Brazil and expect to begin seeing the benefits in the second half of this year.

因此，我們宣布推動 1.5 億美元的費用削減計畫，涵蓋銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）以及在巴西實施的成本控管措施；目前我們已達成年度經常性成本節省目標的三分之一以上。此數字尚未包含第二季因產量提高而帶來的磷酸鹽固定成本吸收效益。我們也已在巴西完成第三方承包商縮減計畫的第一階段，並預期在今年下半年開始看到效益。

With several projects winding down and careful CapEx management, we are on track to achieve our targeted $200 million reduction in capital expenditure. Our work to improve our operations and driving operating efficiency is paying off. Phosphate production volume in the second quarter increased by almost 100,000 tons over the first quarter. This is a significant improvement on an annualized basis. Efficiency improvement is also seen in our potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes segments, where unit production costs improved meaningfully across the board.

隨著多個專案逐步收尾，加上審慎的資本支出管理，我們正按計畫達成資本支出削減 2 億美元的目標。我們改善營運並提升營運效率的工作正在產生回報。第二季磷酸鹽產量較第一季增加近 10 萬噸。若以年化基礎衡量，這是一項顯著改善。在鉀肥與 Mosaic Fertilizantes 事業部門亦可見效率提升，整體各項單位生產成本均有明顯改善。

Our growth projects are proceeding well. Our MicroEssentials expansion at Riverview is operating and ramping up. Our potash compaction project at Esterhazy is complete and the new Palmeirante blending facility in the northern region of Brazil is on track to be completed in 2025.

我們的成長專案進展順利。Riverview 的 MicroEssentials 擴產已投入運轉並持續爬坡。Esterhazy 的鉀肥壓實（compaction）專案已完成，而巴西北部新建的 Palmeirante 混配設施正按計畫於 2025 年完工。

Our Mosaic Biosciences business is making significant progress. In fact, we have launched our biological products in North America, Brazil, China, India, and nine other Central American markets. Our products are now in use on 5 million acres in North and Central America, which highlights the competitive advantage our brand, customer relationships, and distribution strength provide as we introduce new and innovative products.

我們的 Mosaic Biosciences 業務正取得重大進展。事實上，我們已在北美、巴西、中國、印度以及另外九個中美洲市場推出生物製劑產品。目前我們的產品已在北美與中美洲共 500 萬英畝土地上使用，這凸顯了在導入新穎創新產品時，我們的品牌、客戶關係與通路優勢所帶來的競爭力。

We completed and successfully launched our global digital acceleration program, which is driving improved customer service, cost reductions, and many other benefits. The strength of our business and our cost controls have allowed us to continue to return significant capital to shareholders. We have returned almost $300 million to shareholders, including $160 million of share repurchases in the first six months of this year. Our business improvements are complemented by the positive signs we're seeing in fertilizer and broader agriculture margins.

我們已完成並成功推出全球數位加速計畫，正推動客戶服務提升、成本降低以及多項其他效益。憑藉我們業務的韌性與成本控管，我們得以持續向股東回饋可觀資本。今年前六個月，我們已向股東回饋近 3 億美元，其中包含 1.6 億美元的庫藏股回購。我們的業務改善亦受惠於我們在肥料與更廣泛農業利潤率方面所看到的正向訊號。

Strong global phosphate demand drove higher prices through the second quarter as seasonal sentiment improved. We believe the long-term outlook for phosphate with increasing demand for food, fiber, fuel, and industrial use is compelling. Potash contract settlements in China and India established the price floor and brought buyers back to the market. In-season fertilizer demand in Brazil is strong, and we continue to execute well amid the recovering ag environment there. Mosaic Fertilizantes results are solid and our cost position demonstrates improvements.

全球磷酸鹽需求強勁，隨著季節性情緒改善，帶動第二季價格走高。我們認為，隨著食品、纖維、燃料及工業用途需求增加，磷酸鹽的長期展望相當具吸引力。中國與印度的鉀肥合約結算確立了價格底部，並使買方重返市場。巴西當季肥料需求強勁，在當地農業環境復甦之際，我們持續良好執行。Mosaic Fertilizantes 的業績穩健，而我們的成本位置也顯示出改善。

Let's take a deeper look at our progress in the US Phosphate business, where our goal is to return to a run rate of 8 million tons per year by the end of 2024. We're making good progress as demonstrated in our second-quarter production volumes, which advanced 98,000 tons from the first quarter. On a run rate basis, some of our facilities, specifically Bartow and New Wales, have achieved about 90% of the production levels we need to reach our system-wide goal. Our turnaround work is clearly paying off.

接下來更深入檢視我們在美國磷酸鹽業務的進展；我們的目標是在 2024 年底前回到每年 800 萬噸的經常性產能水準。從第二季產量可見我們進展良好，較第一季增加 98,000 噸。以經常性產出水準來看，我們部分設施，特別是 Bartow 與 New Wales，已達到我們為實現全系統目標所需產量水準的約 90%。我們的歲修與整備工作顯然正在產生效果。

For example, in New Wales following the turnarounds we executed in March and April, we saw a significant step-up in production for the second quarter. In Louisiana, our production run rate has improved after several unplanned outages last year and has reached 85% of the target production level. Several projects are scheduled for the remainder of the year, which will further close the gap to the target rate. Riverview performance in the quarter was lower than target rate due to the outage caused by our brushfire earlier this year and a normal pace of production ramp-up after a major capacity conversion, which was completed in May. The outlook for the rest of the year is solid. All in all, we are pleased with the progress we have made in our production ramp, and our hard work will continue to pay off for the remainder of the year.

例如，在 New Wales，我們於 3 月與 4 月執行歲修後，第二季產量出現顯著提升。在路易斯安那州，經歷去年數次非計畫性停機後，我們的產出經常性水準已改善，並達到目標產量水準的 85%。今年剩餘期間仍安排了數個專案，將進一步縮小與目標水準的差距。Riverview 本季表現低於目標水準，原因包括今年稍早因灌木火災造成的停機，以及在 5 月完成重大產能轉換後，產量爬坡屬正常節奏。對今年其餘時間的展望穩健。總體而言，我們對產量爬坡所取得的進展感到滿意，而我們的努力在今年剩餘期間也將持續帶來回報。

Higher production brings lower unit costs, as you can see in our second-quarter results. The majority of our turnaround activity will be complete by the end of the year, resulting in significant production improvements and $20 to $30 per ton conversion cost savings.

更高的產量帶來更低的單位成本，正如你們在我們第二季的業績中所見。我們的大部分整頓（turnaround）工作將在年底前完成，進而帶來顯著的產量改善，並實現每噸20至30美元的轉換成本節省。

Now let's move on to a brief look at the markets. Ag commodity markets have diverged around the world, with corn and soybean prices softening, and other crop prices, notably for palm oil, rising. The important factor for Mosaic is that crop nutrients remain affordable for most of the world's farmers, which leads to strong fertilizer demand and application. In phosphate, our long-term positive outlook continues. Rising demand for grains and oilseeds to support both increasing food and fuel demand combines with soaring demand for industrial uses to create competition for limited phosphate supply. Chinese exports remain subdued and major new supply is years away.

現在讓我們簡要看看市場情況。全球農產品大宗商品市場走勢分化，玉米與大豆價格走弱，而其他作物價格（尤其是棕櫚油）上漲。對Mosaic而言，關鍵因素在於作物養分對全球多數農民仍屬可負擔，這將帶動強勁的肥料需求與施用。在磷酸鹽方面，我們長期的正向展望不變。為支撐不斷增加的食品與燃料需求，穀物與油籽需求上升，再加上工業用途需求飆升，形成對有限磷酸鹽供應的競爭。中國出口仍然低迷，而主要新增供給仍需數年才會到來。

In the short term, the seasonal price reset that we saw in the first and second quarters of this year were shorter and less severe than expected. Prices have rebounded given strong demand and tight supply. North American demand is particularly strong with buyers seeking summer fill after emptying their bins this spring. Brazil demand is also good, with growers concerned about limited availability. In India, where grower demand is very strong, importers are still awaiting a more compelling government subsidy.

短期來看，我們在今年第一季與第二季看到的季節性價格重置，時間比預期更短、幅度也較不嚴重。在需求強勁且供給吃緊的情況下，價格已反彈。北美需求尤其強勁，買家在今年春季清空庫存後，正尋求夏季補庫。巴西需求也不錯，種植戶擔心供應有限。在印度，種植戶需求非常強勁，但進口商仍在等待更具吸引力的政府補貼。

While Chinese exports have resumed, recent news indicates that government restrictions could tighten given rising in-country phosphate prices. Due to the positive dynamics and sentiment as well as subdued raw material costs, stripping margins remain well above historical averages, and we expect strong margins to continue.

儘管中國出口已恢復，近期消息顯示，隨著中國國內磷酸鹽價格上漲，政府限制可能會收緊。受惠於正向的供需動態與市場情緒，以及原料成本仍偏低，剝離利潤（stripping margins）仍遠高於歷史平均，我們預期強勁利潤將持續。

The potash market remains balanced. After a very strong North American spring planting season, our summer fill program was very well received. In fact, the recent contract settlements in China and India signaled a floor for prices, and, as usual, stimulated buying activity all over Asia, resulting in Canpotex sold out through quarter three. We restarted Colonsay in early July to make sure we have enough product to meet our customer commitments while Esterhazy is in turnaround. Keep in mind, we need to run Colonsay for approximately five months to offset one month of Esterhazy production. We will continue to flex Colonsay as needed.

鉀肥市場仍維持供需平衡。在北美春耕季非常強勁之後，我們的夏季補庫計畫獲得非常好的反響。事實上，近期中國與印度的合約結算價格為價格提供了底部訊號，並一如往常地帶動全亞洲的採購活動，使Canpotex在第三季前已售罄。我們在7月初重啟Colonsay，以確保在Esterhazy進行整頓期間，我們有足夠產品履行對客戶的承諾。請記住，我們需要讓Colonsay運轉約五個月，才能抵消Esterhazy一個月的產量。我們將視需要持續彈性調整Colonsay的產量。

Now I'll provide some color to our segment results. In phosphate, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $308 million on revenue of $1.2 billion. Sales volumes were solid and higher than first quarter and prices were strong. Margins were up from the first quarter due to strong pricing, fewer tons purchased from third parties, and our lower conversion costs. We expect sales volumes to increase sequentially in the third quarter. Potash adjusted EBITDA was $271 million on revenue of $663 million. While second-quarter prices declined from the first quarter, sales volumes were solid, and costs were down.

接下來我將補充一些分部業績的細節。在磷酸鹽業務，我們在12億美元營收下，報告調整後EBITDA為3.08億美元。銷售量穩健，較第一季更高，且價格強勁。受惠於強勁定價、向第三方採購的噸數減少，以及我們較低的轉換成本，利潤率較第一季提升。我們預期第三季銷售量將較第二季續增。鉀肥調整後EBITDA為2.71億美元，營收為6.63億美元。儘管第二季價格較第一季下滑，銷售量仍穩健，且成本下降。

We remain highly efficient in our operations. In fact, production unit costs improved again in the second quarter with MOP cash production cost per ton declining 11% from the first quarter. Our third-quarter pricing expectations reflect a higher mix of international sales compared with the second quarter. In Brazil, we recorded adjusted EBITDA of $96 million and sales volumes of 2.2 million tons. Our results were solid due to our strategy of prioritizing margin and cash flow over volume.

我們的營運仍維持高度效率。事實上，第二季生產單位成本再度改善，MOP每噸現金生產成本較第一季下降11%。我們對第三季價格的預期反映出相較第二季更高的國際銷售占比。在巴西，我們錄得調整後EBITDA為9,600萬美元，銷售量為220萬噸。由於我們採取以利潤率與現金流優先於銷量的策略，業績表現穩健。

Our distribution margin was within our normalized $30 to $40 per ton range, and we expect similar margins in the third quarter. Our production margins improved from prior year. Cash unit cost of mined rock and phosphate and potash production all came down due to our focus on cost reductions. In addition, we had another strong quarter in co-product sales.

我們的通路毛利落在常態化的每噸30至40美元區間內，且我們預期第三季毛利將維持相近水準。我們的生產毛利較去年改善。由於我們專注於降本，採礦岩石的現金單位成本，以及磷酸鹽與鉀肥的生產現金單位成本皆下降。此外，我們的副產品銷售也再度繳出強勁的一季。

Finally, a brief word on capital allocation. Our strategy has not changed. We're investing in the business, conserving capital where we can, and returning excess cash to shareholders. To conclude, Mosaic is executing well across our strategic initiatives, and we are generating solid results, and our outlook for the remainder of 2024 and beyond is positive.

最後，簡要談一下資本配置。我們的策略沒有改變。我們持續投資於業務、在可行之處保留資本，並將多餘現金回饋給股東。總結來說，Mosaic在各項策略性計畫上執行良好，並產生穩健成果；我們對2024年剩餘期間及其後的展望仍然正向。

Now, let's move on to the first set of questions.

現在，我們進入第一輪提問。

Thanks, Bruce. Before we move on to the live Q&A, as we've done in past quarters, we'd like to address some of the most common questions we received after publishing our earnings last night. Our first question is related to the markets. What is your view on the demand outlook for fertilizers given the recent weakness in corn and soybean prices?

謝謝你，Bruce。在我們進入現場問答之前，如同過去幾季所做的，我們想先回應昨晚公布財報後收到的一些最常見問題。第一個問題與市場相關。鑑於近期玉米與大豆價格走弱，你們如何看待肥料需求前景？

That's a great question. So let me start first with the ag commodity market. which is very constructive with global grain and oilseed stock-to-use ratio still well below historical average. While no doubt corn and soybean prices have softened, other grain and oilseeds and specialty crops are favorable, especially for crops like palm oil and rice. And I want to remind investors, as we've said in the last couple of earnings calls, that only one-third of phosphate and potash consumption is related to corn and soybeans.

這是個很好的問題。我先從農產品大宗商品市場談起：整體仍相當有利，因為全球穀物與油籽的庫存使用比（stock-to-use ratio）仍明顯低於歷史平均。雖然玉米與大豆價格確實走弱，但其他穀物、油籽與特用作物的價格表現仍佳，尤其是棕櫚油與稻米等作物。我也想提醒投資人，正如我們在最近幾次財報電話會議中所說，磷酸鹽與鉀肥的消費量只有三分之一與玉米和大豆相關。

And the demand pull from the remaining crops continues to support constructive fertilizer fundamentals. At a higher level, phosphate demand is strong across all the key markets we sell in. For potash, demand has definitely come back significantly, particularly in Southeast Asia, given the favorable weather conditions, pent-up demand for multiyear under application, and the current attractive prices. The recent settlements of the China and India seaborne contracts are going to further stimulate demand all over Asia.

其餘作物帶來的需求拉動，仍持續支撐有利的肥料基本面。從更宏觀的角度看，磷酸鹽在我們所有主要銷售市場的需求都很強勁。至於鉀肥，在有利天候、多年施用不足所累積的補施需求，以及目前具吸引力的價格帶動下，需求確實已顯著回升，尤其是在東南亞。近期中國與印度的海運合約結算，將進一步刺激全亞洲的需求。

With that, I'm going to pass it over to Jenny to talk a little more details about the near-term demand.

接下來我把時間交給Jenny，請她更詳細談談短期需求。

Thanks, Bruce. There's no doubt that growers in the US and Brazil are watching the future corn and soybean prices along with any news that about weather development, which might impact the yield projections and hence prices.

謝謝你，Bruce。毫無疑問，美國與巴西的種植戶正關注玉米與大豆期貨價格，以及任何與天候發展相關、可能影響單產預估進而影響價格的消息。

In terms of the near-term demand in North America, we had a very strong summer fill program. In fact, we have sold out all of our Q3 available phosphate and 80% of our available potash count in North America market. In Brazil, safra season is in full swing. The demand is robust. We expect 2024 shipment is going to be at a record or going to set a new record. We are having a very full sales book to execute upon. We have sold 100% of our available tons for Q3, with a very strong customer prepayment.

就北美短期需求而言，我們的夏季補庫計畫非常強勁。事實上，我們在北美市場第三季可供的磷酸鹽已全數售罄，而可供的鉀肥數量也已售出80%。在巴西，safra季正如火如荼進行。需求強勁。我們預期2024年出貨量將創下紀錄或刷新紀錄。我們有非常充實的銷售訂單可供執行。我們已售出第三季100%的可供噸數，且客戶預付款非常強勁。

In India, with favorable monsoon, growers need their fertilizers to maximize their production on rice, wheat, and other crops (technical difficulty) in order to get more DAP into the country. In China, we have seen very strong domestic shipments for both phosphates and potash in the first half of the year. We are seeing 20% growth year over year, supported by very strong ag fundamentals and supported by their policies to ensure food security.

在印度，隨著季風條件有利，種植戶需要肥料以最大化其在稻米、小麥及其他作物上的產量（技術難度），以便讓更多 DAP 進入該國。在中國，我們看到今年上半年磷肥與鉀肥的國內出貨都非常強勁。在強勁的農業基本面支撐下，並在其確保糧食安全的政策支持下，我們看到年增 20% 的成長。

Thanks, Bruce and Jenny. For our next question, what is the latest on phosphate exports out of China? And how do you see that evolving over the rest of the year?

謝謝，Bruce 和 Jenny。下一個問題，中國磷肥出口的最新情況如何？你們如何看待今年剩餘時間的發展？

Well, this is something we pay attention to a lot and we anticipate limited exports of phosphate out of China, which bodes well for global phosphate prices. First-half exports were approximately 1 million tons below the same time in 2023 due to strong in-country demand for both fertilizers and industrial uses. China's domestic prices continue to move up, considering that demand, and we believe the export restrictions will likely remain or potentially even be tightened to limit further domestic price escalation.

這是我們非常關注的議題。我們預期中國的磷肥出口將維持有限，這對全球磷肥價格是利多。由於國內對肥料與工業用途的需求強勁，上半年出口量較 2023 年同期少了約 100 萬噸。考量到這樣的需求，中國國內價格仍持續上行；我們認為出口限制很可能會維持，甚至可能進一步收緊，以抑制國內價格進一步上漲。

With that, I'm going to ask Jenny and pass it over to her to share some additional details.

接下來，我想請 Jenny 補充一些細節，並把時間交給她。

Thanks, Bruce. As Bruce mentioned, the first-half export in China reduced by 27% or over 1 million tons. That is a result of the changes in Chinese local S&D for phosphate. On the demand side, Chinese phosphate domestic shipment increased over 20% in the first half of the year, which is probably the record.

謝謝，Bruce。如 Bruce 所提到，中國上半年出口下降了 27%，也就是超過 100 萬噸。這是中國本地磷肥供需（S&D）變化所造成的結果。在需求端，中國磷肥上半年國內出貨增加超過 20%，這可能是創紀錄的水準。

They're driven by several factors. First, strong ag fundamentals supported by ag policies to ensure food security; second, meaningful growth of vegetable and fruit planting acreage over the last five years; third, the introduction of high-tech seed technologies have required more balanced fertilizer to maximize the yield; and lastly, we also recognize there are some earlier seasonal pull for the [full] demand. As a result of it, the demand of Chinese phosphate domestic shipment has increased significantly in the first half of the year.

這主要由幾個因素驅動。第一，強勁的農業基本面，並有確保糧食安全的農業政策支撐；第二，過去五年蔬菜與水果種植面積顯著成長；第三，高科技種子技術的導入，為了最大化單產而需要更均衡的施肥；最後，我們也注意到需求在季節上有一些提前拉貨。因此，中國磷肥國內出貨需求在上半年顯著增加。

And then let's look at the supply side. Continued shift from fertilizer production to industrial products, like PPA, LFP, has reduced availability of fertilizers, especially DAP. The production of LFP in the first half of the year has reached to over 1.1 million tons, which is an increase of 82% year over year, and that represents over 90% compound annual growth rate from 2020 to 2023.

再來看供給端。肥料產能持續轉向工業產品，例如 PPA、LFP，降低了肥料供應量，尤其是 DAP。今年上半年 LFP 產量已達到超過 110 萬噸，年增 82%，而且 2020 到 2023 年的複合年成長率超過 90%。

So in the first half of 2024, over 1 million tons of DAP products are shifted to LFP. So the growth of domestic demand, the reduction of production, plus rising prices have had Chinese government tightly controlled the export phosphate out of China. We expect that the restrictions is going to continue in the second half and going forward.

因此在 2024 年上半年，超過 100 萬噸的 DAP 產品被轉作 LFP。國內需求成長、產量下降，再加上價格上漲，使得中國政府嚴格管控磷肥出口。我們預期這些限制在下半年以及未來仍將持續。

Sticking with phosphates for your next question, how is the production ramp-up going? And how do you see the rest of the year playing out from a volume and cost perspective?

下一題同樣聚焦磷肥：產量爬坡（ramp-up）的進展如何？從出貨量與成本的角度，你們如何看待今年剩餘時間的走勢？

We are making significant progress in our phosphate production ramp up. And as a result, we're seeing good fixed cost absorption benefits, especially in the past two months. You can see the progress in our second-quarter production volume and unit conversion costs. Our volumes were up close to 100,000 tons sequentially, which is a significant achievement, and our cash conversion costs were the lowest since the end of 2023.

我們在磷肥產量爬坡方面取得顯著進展。因此，我們看到固定成本吸收（fixed cost absorption）的效益良好，尤其是在過去兩個月。你可以從我們第二季的產量與單位轉換成本（unit conversion costs）看到這些進展。我們的產量較前一季增加接近 10 萬噸，這是很重要的成果；而我們的現金轉換成本（cash conversion costs）則是自 2023 年底以來最低。

We have certain sites, for example, Bartow and New Wales, which are performing particularly well and are contributing at the rates required for the business to return to our historical production objectives. We'll undertake several maintenance turnarounds in Louisiana and Riverview to further improve our production run rate in the second half of the year.

我們有些廠區表現特別出色，例如 Bartow 與 New Wales，正以業務所需的速度貢獻產出，讓我們能回到歷史生產目標。我們將在路易斯安那州與 Riverview 進行數次維修停工（maintenance turnarounds），以在下半年進一步提升產線運轉率（run rate）。

Note, we will always see some variations from quarter to quarter due to the normal turnaround schedule, the scope of those turnarounds, and the decisions we make on finished product mix from the phosphoric acid we produce. So we expect annual production to be in the range of 7.8 million to 8.2 million tons once we get back into a normal routine on turnaround activities. Unit costs are expected to demonstrate continued improvement as we increase production, and we're on track to achieve $20 to $30 per ton in cost reduction from higher operating efficiency.

請注意，由於例行停工檢修的排程、檢修範圍，以及我們對所生產磷酸所對應成品組合（finished product mix）的決策，每一季之間都會有一些波動。因此，一旦我們在停工檢修活動上回到正常節奏，我們預期全年產量將落在 780 萬至 820 萬噸之間。隨著產量提升，單位成本預期將持續改善；我們也正按計畫透過更高的營運效率，達成每噸 20 至 30 美元的成本降低。

Now switching over to potash. What's the thought process on restarting Colonsay?

現在切換到鉀肥。對於重啟 Colonsay 的思考邏輯是什麼？

Well, thanks for that question. I know it's on a lot of people's minds. But for Mosaic, and we've been consistent with this, Colonsay is an important component of our potash portfolio. It gives us the flexibility to meet our operating objectives. One objective is to ensure we meet market demand. Now that the settlements of the China and India potash contracts are behind us and a price floor is established, our focus is to produce enough product to meet customer commitments.

謝謝這個問題。我知道很多人都在關注。但對 Mosaic 而言，而且我們一直以來都很一致，Colonsay 是我們鉀肥組合中很重要的一環。它讓我們能更有彈性地達成營運目標。其中一個目標是確保我們能滿足市場需求。現在中國與印度鉀肥合約的結算已經落定，且價格底部已建立，我們的重點是生產足夠的產品以履行對客戶的承諾。

We have maintenance activities and turnaround scheduled for our assets every year. And in fact, Esterhazy is scheduled for one in the third quarter of this year. In order to have enough product on hand to meet our commitments with Canpotex, which we just mentioned was sold out for the third quarter, we must restart Colonsay. And just as a reminder, it takes approximately five months of Colonsay operating to replace approximately one month of Esterhazy production.

我們每年都會為資產安排維護作業與停工檢修。事實上，Esterhazy 已排定在今年第三季進行一次。為了有足夠的庫存來履行我們對 Canpotex 的承諾（我們剛提到第三季已售罄），我們必須重啟 Colonsay。也提醒一下，Colonsay 約需運轉五個月，才能補上 Esterhazy 約一個月的產量。

Our next question is related to Brazil. The market has been challenging for several quarters in a row within your industry. What is the latest situation from your perspective?

下一個問題與巴西有關。你們產業的市場已連續好幾季充滿挑戰。從你們的角度來看，最新情況如何？

The operating environment in Brazil agriculture has been challenging for the past year. And it has taken a toll on many participants in the market. I will highlight that our deep expertise and strong brand in Brazil market with over two decades of distribution experience has allowed us to mitigate the market-related risks and deliver strong results.

過去一年，巴西農業的營運環境一直充滿挑戰。這也讓市場上許多參與者承受壓力。我想強調的是，我們在巴西市場擁有深厚專業與強勢品牌，並具備超過二十年的通路經驗，使我們能降低與市場相關的風險並交出強勁成果。

Our assets, which include in-country production, ports, warehouses, and blending facilities provide us with the required scale, geographic diversification, and cost efficiency to succeed in this geography. Our strengths have allowed us to gain further advantage as others have exited the market or reduced their footprint in country. Retailers and large growers have turned to us for reliable supply, and we are here to meet that demand.

我們的資產包含在地生產、港口、倉庫與混配（blending）設施，為我們提供在此區域成功所需的規模、地理分散性與成本效率。當其他業者退出市場或縮減在地布局時，我們的優勢讓我們得以進一步擴大領先。零售商與大型種植戶轉向我們以取得可靠供應，而我們也會在此滿足這些需求。

Thanks, Bruce. For the next question, you previously announced targets related to cost savings and CapEx reductions. Are you on track to meet those targets?

謝謝你，Bruce。下一個問題，你先前公布了與成本節省與資本支出（CapEx）削減相關的目標。你們是否正按計畫達成這些目標？

We've made significant progress on our cost and CapEx initiatives. There are three categories: the first, operating efficiency. In phosphate, higher production volumes have significantly improved our fixed cost absorption. We had very good results in the past two months, as I previously mentioned. And as you can see, our cash conversion costs have decreased 15% from the high point in the end of last year. We do expect further improvement in the remainder of the year as production volume continues to recover. Operating efficiency is not just in the phosphate segment, however. Costs came down in the potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes segments as well. Our unit cash cost of mined rock, phosphate conversion, and potash production declined across all three segments since the same time last year.

我們在成本與資本支出（CapEx）相關措施上已取得顯著進展。主要分為三大類：第一是營運效率。在磷酸鹽業務方面，更高的產量已顯著提升我們對固定成本的吸收。如我先前提到的，過去兩個月我們的成果非常好。而且如你所見，我們的現金轉換成本自去年年底高點以來已下降15%。隨著產量持續回升，我們預期今年剩餘期間還會進一步改善。不過，營運效率不僅限於磷酸鹽事業。鉀肥與Mosaic Fertilizantes事業的成本也同步下降。自去年同期以來，我們在三個事業部的採礦岩石單位現金成本、磷酸鹽轉換成本與鉀肥生產成本均有所下降。

Second, our cost focus is not exclusively on operations. We have a focus on reducing costs in all areas of the company. As mentioned last quarter, we have had plans to reduce headcount, mostly third-party contractors. I'm pleased to announce we have implemented the first phase of that reduction. We will start reaping the benefits in the second half of 2024. The [fill] program will be completed by mid 2025 and result in run rate savings of approximately $20 million to $30 million. Our other cost controls in Brazil and SG&A reduction are also on track. Since the inception of the initiatives, we have achieved about $50 million in run rate cost reductions, about one-third of the total $150 million target.

第二，我們的成本聚焦並不僅限於營運端。我們致力於降低公司各領域的成本。如上季所提，我們規劃減少人力，主要是第三方承包商。我很高興宣布，我們已實施該縮減的第一階段。我們將在2024年下半年開始收穫效益。[fill]計畫將於2025年年中完成，並帶來約2,000萬至3,000萬美元的年度化（run rate）節省。我們在巴西的其他成本控管以及SG&A（銷售、一般及行政費用）削減也都按計畫進行。自這些措施啟動以來，我們已達成約5,000萬美元的年度化成本降低，約為總目標1.5億美元的三分之一。

Finally, on the CapEx front, we finished several growth projects in the past six months. As these projects continue to wind down, we are on track to reduce CapEx by $200 million this year.

最後，在資本支出（CapEx）方面，我們在過去六個月完成了數個成長專案。隨著這些專案持續收尾，我們正按計畫在今年將CapEx降低2億美元。

Thanks, Bruce. With that, we'll now move on to the open question-and-answer session. Operator, please open the line for follow-up questions.

謝謝你，Bruce。接下來我們將進入開放式問答環節。接線員，請開放線路以便進行追問。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

(接線員指示) Ben Isaacson，豐業銀行（Scotiabank）。

Question on the phosphate side of the business. You have high prices against low crop prices, but it doesn't sound like you're worried about demand disruption in the Americas. It doesn't sound like you're worried about trade flow becoming an issue out of China. So if we put our bear hats on, what's going to break this phosphate cycle right now? Is it new supply coming on? Can you address that? And then just as my follow-up, can you talk about where you expect LFP demand to be in DAP equivalent terms in 2030?

問題關於磷酸鹽業務。你們面臨高肥料價格對上低作物價格，但聽起來你們並不擔心美洲地區的需求受到干擾。也聽起來你們不擔心來自中國的貿易流向會成為問題。所以如果我們戴上悲觀的帽子，目前到底是什麼會打破這一輪磷酸鹽循環？是新的供給將投放市場嗎？你能談談嗎？另外作為追問，你能談談你們預期2030年LFP需求換算成DAP等量會是多少嗎？

Well, thanks, Ben. I'll take the first part of your question and then maybe pass it over to Jenny for any commentary on the LFP. But we agree, phosphate prices look very constructive for the near term. And as far as what is out there to change something, we don't see a lot of new capacity come on or announced in the near term, which historically has been something that could influence kind of outlook on price. And the fact that that's not there of significance, we're very optimistic about how prices are going to play out.

好的，謝謝你，Ben。我先回答你問題的第一部分，然後也許把LFP相關的評論交給Jenny。不過我們同意，短期內磷酸鹽價格看起來相當有利。至於有哪些因素可能改變現況，我們在短期內沒有看到大量新產能投放或宣布；而歷史上這類因素可能會影響對價格的展望。由於缺乏具規模的新產能，我們對價格後續走勢非常樂觀。

If you look at -- our stripping margin's well over $400. We kind of continue to see that in the back half of the year in that kind of mid-$400 range. No doubt, there's affordability issues. But if you look at total crop affordability, I think Jenny talked about that earlier in the fireside chat, it is still very constructive, although no doubt pressures on certain areas on corn and soybeans as an example.

如果你看——我們的剝採利差（stripping margin）遠高於400美元。我們大致預期今年下半年仍會維持在400多美元中段的區間。毫無疑問，確實存在可負擔性問題。但如果你看整體作物的可負擔性，我想Jenny在先前的爐邊談話中也提到，整體仍相當正面，雖然玉米與黃豆等部分領域確實有壓力。

But again, 30%, 33% of overall P&K demand is in corn and soybeans and then the other 67% is in other grain and oilseeds, which quite honestly, is very constructive and healthy. For example, palm oil, sugarcane, coffee, other things like that. But I don't see right now a big catalyst to change that in the forecoming future. But you never know what could come out geopolitically or something like that, but I think that's what it would take.

但再說一次，整體P&K（磷與鉀）需求中有30%、33%來自玉米與黃豆，其餘67%來自其他穀物與油料作物；坦白說，那部分的狀況非常正面且健康。例如棕櫚油、甘蔗、咖啡等作物。因此我目前看不到在可預見的未來有什麼重大催化劑會改變這個局面。當然你永遠不知道地緣政治或類似事件會帶來什麼變數，但我認為需要那種等級的事件才會改變。

With that, I'll turn it over to Jenny to maybe answer the LFP part, or Jenny, if you've got anything else to add on the market itself.

接下來我把問題交給Jenny，請她回答LFP的部分；或者Jenny，如果你對市場本身還有其他補充也請一併說明。

Sure. Thanks, Bruce. Ben, probably to your question on LFP, I just want to remind ourselves at this point of time, LFP is mainly used in China and mainly used both for Chinese producers and also for Tesla. So the LFP have been used as a battery for EV. Adoption in Chinese production was already up to 69%, meaning 69% of the EV batteries are using LFP.

好的。謝謝你，Bruce。Ben，關於你對LFP的問題，我想先提醒大家，就目前而言，LFP主要在中國使用，主要供中國製造商使用，也供特斯拉（Tesla）使用。因此LFP一直被用作電動車（EV）電池。在中國的採用率已達到69%，也就是說69%的電動車電池使用LFP。

Longer-term projection -- there are very big range of [our production] on LFP growth globally. We believe going forward, the global EV battery adoption for LFP is going to be somewhere between 35% to 55%. We don't believe it is going to ever reach to the level as it was in China today.

就較長期的預測而言——全球對LFP成長的[our production]預估區間非常大。我們認為未來全球電動車電池對LFP的採用率大約會落在35%到55%之間。我們不認為它會達到目前中國的水準。

The other bigger driver on LFP adoption is really on the energy storage, ESS stationary -- battery. And the adoption of that part on LFP is already over 80%, and that battery being produced in China mainly and shipped to rest of the world and by Tesla as well. And we believe that is going to be the major driver for LFP going forward. So very wide range. And if you use China as a proxy for EV, the future growth from rest of the world is going to continue. And lastly, people don't pay a lot of attention on the storage stationary battery, which is probably going to be a bigger driver.

另一個更大的LFP採用驅動因素其實是能源儲存，也就是ESS固定式——電池。而在那一部分，LFP的採用率已超過80%；這些電池主要在中國生產並出口到世界其他地區，也包括特斯拉。我們認為這將是未來推動LFP的主要動力。因此區間非常寬。如果以中國作為電動車的代理指標，其他地區的未來成長仍會持續。最後，人們對固定式儲能電池的關注不多，但它可能會是更大的驅動因素。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）。

Wondering just to start off with, if you could give us an update on where you think industry shipments are going to be for '24 for both potash and phosphate, and whether those expectations have improved since the year began. And then as -- why don't we just start there?

想先請教一下，你能否更新你對2024年鉀肥與磷酸鹽兩者的產業出貨量預期，以及這些預期自年初以來是否有所改善。然後——我們先從這裡開始吧？

Yes. No, thanks, Vincent. For phosphate, our projection's in the range of 73 million to 76 million tons global shipments. For potash, that range is 70 million tons to 73 million tons. I think, and Jenny, correct me if I'm wrong, our potash numbers have kind of have gone up a little bit, that midpoint around 1 million tons based on what we're seeing develop in Southeast Asia and really all Asian markets in general, given where these contracts have settled in China and India and kind of the sentiment that that's provided confidence in the industry that kind of the bottom set in on potash. On phosphate, I don't think that range has changed very much for us since the beginning of the year, just given that supply is limited, Vincent.

是的。不用了，謝謝你，Vincent。就磷酸鹽而言，我們的預估區間是全球出貨量7,300萬至7,600萬公噸。就鉀肥而言，區間是7,000萬至7,300萬公噸。我認為——Jenny，如有不對請指正——我們的鉀肥數字有小幅上調，中位數大約增加了100萬公噸，主要是基於我們看到東南亞、以及整體亞洲市場的發展情況；再加上中國與印度合約的落定，以及這帶來的市場情緒，使產業更有信心，認為鉀肥已經觸底。至於磷酸鹽，我不認為自年初以來我們的區間有太大變化，主要是因為供給仍然受限，Vincent。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, if you could just give us a refresh or an update on where the CVD situation in the US is. I believe it's still under some back and forth between the different relevant agencies. But if you could just give us any pertinent update there, that would be helpful.

好的。接著追問一下，能否請你們重新說明或更新一下美國CVD（反補貼稅）的最新狀況？我相信目前仍在不同相關機構之間來回協調。如果你們能提供任何相關的最新進展，會很有幫助。

Yes. As we've said before, there's always a lot going on in that space. I know it's hard to track, but ITC still has appeals and rulings that they owe the industry, and the Department of Commerce several months ago came out with their preliminary rate adjustments for last year 2023. And those went up for OCP like 12%. They went down for PhosAgro, about 10%, and stayed the same for EuroChem. But again, those are preliminary. The final numbers will come out in November. So we'll wait and see what happens between now and then.

是的。如同我們之前所說，那個領域一直都有很多事情在進行。我知道很難追蹤，但ITC仍有一些上訴與裁決尚未對產業做出結論；而美國商務部在幾個月前公布了針對去年（2023年）的初步稅率調整。其中OCP上調了大約12%。PhosAgro下調了約10%，EuroChem則維持不變。但再次強調，這些都只是初步結果。最終數字將在11月公布。所以我們會觀察接下來到那時之間會發生什麼。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

On Mosaic Fertilizantes. Normally, we're obviously going to see seasonality in Q3, the business earns more in Q3 versus Q2. Can you talk about what you're seeing in that business? Are volumes normal? Or are we seeing a destocking or just in time in Brazil? Are margins going to be similar in Q3 versus Q2 to the point where maybe you'd see a smaller Q3 seasonal earnings bump than normal Q2 because Q2 was pretty good for margin?

關於Mosaic Fertilizantes。一般而言，我們顯然會在第三季看到季節性，該業務第三季的獲利通常會高於第二季。你們能談談目前在這項業務上看到的情況嗎？出貨量是否正常？還是我們在巴西看到去庫存或即時採購（just in time）？第三季的利潤率會不會與第二季相近，以至於第三季的季節性獲利增幅可能會比以往小，因為第二季的利潤率表現其實相當不錯？

Thanks, Joel. I'll start just at the high level and maybe Jenny can get into some of the details on seasonality. But we're pretty pleased overall with the performance of Mosaic Fertilizantes. And I know in this space, there's a lot of -- other players are not having as good a news and success. For us, that could be an opportunity. But we do see margins staying pretty steady in that $30 to $40 range for our distribution volumes and don't see that really changing much.

謝謝你，Joel。我先從較高層次開始，之後也許Jenny可以補充一些季節性的細節。但整體而言，我們對Mosaic Fertilizantes的表現相當滿意。我知道在這個領域，很多——其他同業並沒有同樣好的消息與成果。對我們來說，這可能是一個機會。不過我們確實看到利潤率會維持相當穩定，大約在每噸30到40美元的區間（以我們的通路/分銷量而言），而且不太認為會有太大變化。

On the volume side, overall, in Brazil, still see very good overall volumes and total fertilizer demand for the year. Maybe there's some risk at the end of the year due to some things, and Jenny can get into that, and still see at or near historical fertilizer shipments in that market for the full year. Jenny?

在出貨量方面，整體來看，巴西仍呈現非常不錯的總量表現，以及全年肥料總需求。年末可能因為一些因素而存在風險，Jenny可以再深入說明；但我們仍預期該市場全年肥料出貨量將達到或接近歷史水準。Jenny？

Sure, Bruce. Probably I just want to provide a little bit color on the seasonality and where we see the market as of today. The safra season, it's in full swing. We are seeing very strong demand which is basically the ongoing Q3 is the delivery for the safra season. The farm economics were very solid, and farmers are selling their own crops. Soybean are actually ahead of last year and at five years average. Though they're selling of the corn a little bit slower than five years average, but they're same as of last year.

好的，Bruce。我大概想補充一些關於季節性以及截至目前我們對市場的觀察。Safra（主作）季正如火如荼進行中。我們看到非常強勁的需求，基本上目前進行中的第三季就是Safra季的交付期。農場經濟狀況非常穩健，農民也在出售他們的作物。大豆的銷售其實領先去年，也高於五年平均。雖然玉米的銷售比五年平均稍慢，但與去年同期相當。

So farmers are really keeping pace on selling their crops, which are really improving the liquidity in the system. And specifically for fertilizer, they call commercialization, if we assume the full year is going to set a new record for the shipment of the year, 82% of the fertilizers for the full year has been sold. This number is slightly lower than last year. For Mosaic, we are tracking the same pace as of last year. So we are selling ahead of the market trend for the season. And even with that, we are focusing on value, the volume, and we're really prioritizing our sales and shipments to the customers who have a much lower credit risk.

因此農民在作物銷售上確實維持進度，這也在改善整個系統的流動性。就肥料而言，他們稱之為「商業化」（commercialization）；如果我們假設全年將再創年度出貨新高，那麼全年肥料已有82%完成銷售。這個比例略低於去年。就Mosaic而言，我們的進度與去年同期一致。因此在本季我們的銷售進度領先市場趨勢。即便如此，我們仍聚焦於價值與量的平衡，並且確實優先將銷售與出貨配置給信用風險更低的客戶。

Lastly, there are some potential shift for the Q4 sales, which is a safrinha season for corn and cotton. And [the mighty] shift from November, December sales into January, that is going to define what is going to be the final shipment in Brazil going to be. The farmers are relatively more cautious of that seasonal buying. As of today, we have seen 30% of the buying for safrinha versus in the mid-30s in the previous year. So it's relatively slower. There might be some of the demand shifting from late Q4 into early Q1. So that's basically the situation. We have sold every single our Q3. We're in full execution mode.

最後，第四季的銷售可能會出現一些變化，因為那是玉米與棉花的Safrinha（次作）季。而且可能會出現（部分）從11月、12月的銷售轉移到1月的情況，這將決定巴西最終的全年出貨量會是多少。農民對於該季節性的採購相對更為謹慎。截至目前，我們看到Safrinha的採購完成度約30%，而前一年大約在30%中段。所以相對偏慢。部分需求可能會從第四季末移到第一季初。大致就是目前的情況。我們第三季的量已經全部賣完了。我們正全力執行中。

Okay. My thanks for that, Jenny. My second question would be kind of a two-parter, quick. Just at the beginning of the call, you talked about safety and maintenance. So getting a lot of questions on that. Could you elaborate a bit more? And then second question, just quickly talk about phosphate production sales improving in Q4 versus Q3. Do you think you can get to that 2 million ton quarterly run rate in Q4, Bruce?

好的。Jenny，謝謝你的說明。我的第二個問題算是兩段式的，簡短問一下。在電話會議一開始，你提到了安全與維修。所以大家對此有很多問題。你能否再多說明一些？第二個問題是，簡單談談磷酸鹽產量/銷售在第四季相較第三季的改善。Bruce，你認為第四季能達到每季200萬公噸的運行率嗎？

Yes. Joel, thanks for the additional questions. But the safety incident -- we had a serious incident at New Wales recently, actually was a fatality. And not that it matters, but it did get headline news and just wanted to be very transparent about that. It's something that is worse outcomes for us as industrial operators, and as we said, take that very seriously. And they'll be lessons learned and shared across the entire geography with that. But we feel for the families and those impacted by any incidents that we have of seriousness within Mosaic.

是的。Joel，謝謝你追加的問題。關於安全事件——我們最近在New Wales發生了一起嚴重事故，實際上造成一人死亡。雖然這不影響事件本質，但此事確實登上了新聞頭條，我們也希望對此保持高度透明。對我們這樣的工業營運者而言，這是最糟糕的結果之一；如同我們所說，我們非常嚴肅看待。我們會從中汲取教訓，並在整個營運版圖內分享與落實。同時，我們也對所有受影響的家屬，以及任何在Mosaic內發生嚴重事件所影響到的人，致上最深的關懷。

On the phosphate ramp-up and return to production, as you saw quarter one to quarter two, definitely demonstrating results. I think one of the slides we have on our earnings material in the presentation kind of hopefully shows a little more color on how we're progressing. As we said, Bartow and New Wales have shown good signs due to the investments that we've made there and finally catching up on the turnarounds, even going back to COVID, as we've talked about in several calls before.

關於磷酸鹽產能爬坡與恢復生產，如你所見，從第一季到第二季，確實展現了成果。我想我們在簡報的財報資料裡有一張投影片，希望能更具體地呈現我們的進展情況。如我們所說，Bartow 與 New Wales 因為我們在那裡所做的投資、以及終於趕上檢修進度（甚至可追溯到 COVID 時期，正如我們在先前多次電話會議中談到的），都顯示出良好跡象。

Louisiana is also ramping up, had a decent quarter, but still more to go as we've got some more work to do there in the back half of the year. And then Riverview with the brushfire that we've talked about before and then the conversion of the one large granulation plant over to MicroEssentials and ramping that production up has kind of hurt that operating rate in quarter two. But still more work to do in the second half of the year that we have planned, but definitely optimistic that, in aggregate, with the work that we have teed up and the demonstration that we've seen at New Wales and Bartow, that we're well on our way to kind of hitting that historical run rate that we've talked about, and confident that we'll get there, Joel.

路易斯安那也在爬坡，本季表現尚可，但今年下半年我們還有一些工作要做，因此仍有進一步提升空間。至於 Riverview，先前我們談過的灌木火災，以及將一座大型造粒廠轉換為 MicroEssentials 並把產量拉升，某種程度上影響了第二季的運轉率。不過我們在下半年仍規劃了更多工作要推進；但整體而言，基於我們已排定的工作，以及在 New Wales 與 Bartow 所看到的成果，我們對於逐步回到我們所談到的歷史運轉水準相當樂觀，也有信心能達成，Joel。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

Steve Byrne，美國銀行。

I'd like to drill into your outlook for potash fundamentals. You raised your shipments for the year a bit, but we've had a couple of years that were really low. I guess my question is, do you have a view on whether inventory levels in the world are roughly back to normal? Are soy nutrient levels relatively back to normal? And if not, why do you think pricing here is roughly the same as they were in 2019 and yet we got 40% of global supply, the sanctions? Are you getting a value proposition out of Canpotex?

我想深入了解你們對鉀肥基本面的展望。你們把今年的出貨量預估上調了一些，但過去幾年的出貨量都非常低。我的問題是：你們是否認為全球庫存水位大致已回到正常？大豆的養分水準是否也大致回到正常？如果還沒有，為什麼你們認為目前價格大致與 2019 年相當，但我們卻少了 40% 的全球供給（因制裁）？你們是否從 Canpotex 獲得了某種價值主張？

Yes. Steve, that's a pretty complicated question. I mean, maybe it's just easier to back up on how we see the overall potash market. First on supply. Although, yes, you're right, sanctions exist on products, particularly in the FSU, Belarus particularly, but we're seeing trade flows have just been shifted around. They're getting their product out. There's been a large rebound both in Russia and Belarus this year versus last year, but it's been progressing over the last couple of years. So those tons are available. They're just hitting the geographies given the restrictions that they have, markets that they can participate in. They're just taking larger share in closer to home markets.

是的。Steve，這是一個相當複雜的問題。我想也許更容易的方式，是先退一步談我們如何看整體鉀肥市場。先談供給。沒錯，你說得對，確實存在對產品的制裁，特別是前蘇聯地區（FSU），尤其是白俄羅斯；但我們看到貿易流向只是被重新調整。他們仍把產品運出去。今年俄羅斯與白俄羅斯相較去年都有大幅反彈，但其實這個回升已在過去幾年逐步發生。因此那些噸數是可供應的。只是因為他們的限制，產品流向改為投向他們能參與的地區與市場。他們只是更大幅度地在較近的本土周邊市場取得更高市占。

Think about Belarus is doing it with [rail] into China, but it's coming at a cost to serve for them, which is probably raising the umbrella on how low potash prices could ultimately go by $40 to $50 versus historical numbers, just given the type of logistics gymnastics they have to do to get into the markets that are available to them. But there are several buyers. If you want to look at it that way, geographies that -- the sanctions don't really matter. Brazil is going to buy from whoever they need to because they're a large importer.

以白俄羅斯為例，他們透過[rail]鐵路運往中國，但對他們而言服務成本更高；考量到他們為了進入可觸及市場而必須進行的各種物流「體操」，這可能把鉀肥價格最終可能下探的下限，相較歷史水準抬高約 40 到 50 美元。但買方有好幾個。如果你從這個角度看，有些地區——制裁其實影響不大。巴西會向任何能供貨的人採購，因為他們是大型進口國。

And so again, it has simply just moved the trade flows around. And I think the supply side is much returned to where it was kind of before the sanctions. And then we're seeing demand, as that supply has come back, return as well, Steve. So this year, at 70 million to 73 million ton outlook, it's going to be at or near record. So I think the nutrients are going down as the supply becomes more and more available.

因此，這基本上只是把貿易流向重新挪移而已。我認為供給端已大致回到制裁前的狀態。而隨著供給回來，我們也看到需求同樣回升，Steve。所以今年在 7,000 萬到 7,300 萬噸的展望下，將會達到或接近歷史新高。因此我認為，隨著供給愈來愈充足，養分價格正在走低。

And then obviously, long term, unlike phosphates and potash, there are significantly announced expansions and greenfield mines coming on. And as growth in demand happens, pick your number, 2% to 3% compound annual growth rate, that demand is going to be needed, but it's probably going to keep prices in a more constrained zone than what you may see in, for instance, phosphates.

另外，從長期來看，不同於磷酸鹽與鉀肥（的供給格局），目前已宣布了相當多的擴產與綠地新礦將投產。而隨著需求成長，無論你取 2% 到 3% 的年複合成長率，這些新增供給會被需要；但它可能會讓價格維持在較受限的區間，不像你在例如磷酸鹽市場可能看到的那樣。

Jenny, I don't know if you have anything to add. She's saying no, Steve. So I guess I got that one.

Jenny，我不知道你是否要補充。她說不用，Steve。所以我想這題我回答完了。

Okay. Very good. And I'd like to drill in just a little bit on the the biologicals that you're now selling. I believe that both are involved in nutrient uptake. I guess my question for you on that is what is the business model of selling these biologicals? Are they effectively blended with your P&K blended material that you sell? Or is this sold through a completely different channel? Just where do you see this business model going? And do those biologicals result in any reduction in the P&K application rates required on that land?

好的。非常好。我也想再稍微深入一下你們現在正在銷售的生物製劑。我相信兩者都與養分吸收有關。我對此的問題是：銷售這些生物製劑的商業模式是什麼？它們是否會有效地與你們銷售的 P&K 複合肥料混配？還是透過完全不同的通路銷售？你們認為這個商業模式會如何發展？而這些生物製劑是否會讓該土地所需的 P&K 施用量有所降低？

Yes, Steve, thanks. First off, we're excited about biologics. And we see a lot of synergies with our distribution network, our customer relationships, the brand that we have, at least what we believe that we have in the marketplace. We're bringing higher-performing products with real science and data back to results to the market. And we think they're very complementary to what we're currently selling, and I'm going to let Jenny get into a lot more of the details of that and unpack that a little bit more. But we see meaningful growth potential for these.

是的，Steve，謝謝。首先，我們對生物製劑感到很興奮。我們看到它與我們的通路網路、客戶關係，以及我們在市場上所擁有（至少我們認為如此）的品牌之間，有很多綜效。我們正把具備更高效能、且有真正科學與數據支撐並能回溯到成果的產品帶回市場。我們認為它們與我們目前銷售的產品高度互補；我會請 Jenny 更深入說明並進一步拆解細節。但我們認為這些產品具有可觀的成長潛力。

And we think we have good products already in the market that are delivering significant yield results without impact to overall fertilizer application. In fact, the two combined, so one plus one equals more than two in this regard from a yield standpoint, and really helps the story of how to help farmers or growers get more out of the same amount of acres of land.

而且我們認為，我們已在市場上的產品表現良好，能在不影響整體肥料施用的情況下，帶來顯著的增產效果。事實上，兩者結合起來，就增產角度而言，在這裡是一加一大於二；也更能說明如何幫助農民或種植者在相同的耕地面積上獲得更多產出。

But Jenny's team has been doing a lot of work to develop launch programs in various geographies that we talked about in some of our prerecorded comments. So I'll turn it over to Jenny to talk a little bit more about mechanisms, delivery, and any other salient points there.

此外，Jenny 的團隊也做了大量工作，在我們於部分預錄評論中提到的不同地區，制定上市推廣方案。所以我把時間交給 Jenny，請她多談一些作用機制、交付方式，以及其他重要要點。

Sure, Bruce. Steve, in terms of the go-to-market for our bioscience products, firstly, as you can imagine, we go through our current customer base and the current market access. Basically, the products are coated with the fertilizer (technical difficulty) fertilizer granulars. So that is one of the major go-to-market approach for our product. One of the major leading brands that currently we're selling in Americas. North America and Central America, PowerCoat, are basically coated on the fertilizer granulars. We also have a current brand [bypass] are sold as a standalone [foliar] application. So that usually can be mixed with fungicide and insecticide. So when the farmers are treating their crops.

好的，Bruce。Steve，就我們生物科學產品的上市策略而言，首先，如你所想，我們會透過既有客戶基礎與現有的市場通路。基本上，產品會包覆在肥料（技術問題）肥料顆粒上。因此，這是我們產品主要的上市方式之一。我們目前在美洲銷售的主要領先品牌之一。在北美與中美洲，PowerCoat 基本上就是包覆在肥料顆粒上。我們也有一個現有品牌[bypass]，是以獨立的[foliar]葉面施用方式銷售。因此通常可以與殺菌劑與殺蟲劑混用。也就是在農民為作物進行處理時使用。

As you well know that we have invested in the next-generation nitrogen fixation product, that product is likely going to go with seed coating as the go-to-market approach, which is going to give the highest efficiency and the lowest cost. And we're working with several major seed companies on that front. And hopefully, we can provide more updates in the near future. Thanks.

如您所知，我們已投資於下一代固氮產品；該產品很可能會以種子包衣作為主要的上市策略，這將帶來最高效率與最低成本。我們也正就此與數家大型種子公司合作。希望在不久的將來能提供更多更新。謝謝。

(technical difficulty) Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

(技術困難) Richard Garchitorena，富國銀行。

Just wanted to touch on potash and what you're doing with Colonsay, and the turnaround at Esterhazy. Can you basically quantify in terms of how long Esterhazy will be down during the quarter? And then also related to that, Colonsay being restarted. So this is essentially in capacity just to replace that lost tonnage during the turnaround. Any associated costs with that? And how do you expect cost to be impacted in 3Q? And then into 4Q, I guess, do we go back to the normal sort of portfolio of the Esterhazy, the bulk capacity for production?

我想談一下鉀肥，以及你們在 Colonsay 的作為，還有 Esterhazy 的檢修（turnaround）。你們能否大致量化一下，Esterhazy 在本季將停產多久？另外也相關的是，Colonsay 重新啟動。所以這基本上是在產能上用來替補檢修期間損失的噸數。這方面有任何相關成本嗎？你們預期第三季成本會如何受到影響？再到第四季，我想，我們是否會回到正常的組合，也就是由 Esterhazy 作為主要的大宗產能來生產？

Richard, thanks. As you know, the scheduled turnaround, as you mentioned at Esterhazy, right now, it's roughly a month, and that will be plus or minus few days based on discoverables as they get into pieces of equipment and things like that, as always. But as we talked about, based on the capacity comparison, you have to run Colonsay about five months to offset one month of Esterhazy production. So Colonsay likely is going to run much of the remainder of the year to provide that volume offset exactly as you said.

Richard，謝謝。如你所知，你提到的 Esterhazy 計畫性檢修，目前大約是一個月，實際天數可能會因為在拆檢設備、發現新增項目等情況而上下浮動幾天，一如往常。但如我們先前談到的，從產能對比來看，你必須讓 Colonsay 運轉大約五個月，才能抵消 Esterhazy 一個月的產量。因此，正如你所說，Colonsay 很可能會在今年剩餘的大部分時間運轉，以提供該等量的補足。

Colonsay, as we've demonstrated before and as we talked about, is our flexible tonnage to do exactly that, to look at what the market needs overall and make sure that we can meet our commitments and then to serve as backup for instances like this where we need to make sure a product is in our warehouses and position to meet international demand or domestic demand in those times where we do maintenance turnaround.

Colonsay，如我們之前已證明、也如我們所談到的，是我們的彈性噸位，正是用來做這件事：觀察整體市場需求，確保我們能履行承諾；同時在像這次這樣的情況下作為備援，確保在我們進行維修檢修期間，產品能在倉庫中備妥並就位，以滿足國際需求或國內需求。

From a cost standpoint, we prefer to run always, Belle Plaine and Esterhazy first as those are our two low-cost -- solidly low-cost producers here in North America. Colonsay is higher in cost. So there's likely going to be some cost effect on production cost during the times that that's running. But we've made significant improvements over time in Colonsay and stripped costs there. So the incremental cost is not going to be that significant from an overall unit cost standpoint.

從成本角度來看，我們一向優先讓 Belle Plaine 和 Esterhazy 先運轉，因為它們是我們在北美兩個低成本——穩健的低成本——生產基地。Colonsay 的成本較高。因此，在其運轉期間，生產成本很可能會受到一些影響。但我們這些年在 Colonsay 已做出顯著改善並削減成本。所以就整體單位成本而言，增量成本不會那麼顯著。

So I'll leave it there, Richard, and move on to the next question, given time.

Richard，我先說到這裡；考量時間，我們進入下一個問題。

Adam Samuelson, Goldman Sachs.

Adam Samuelson，高盛。

Bruce, in your prepared remarks, you alluded to phosphate shipping margins remaining well above historical averages and expected to remain so. Just given some of the cost dynamics within your own phosphate business and some of the actions you're taking, at current input prices and current GAAP prices, how big of a gap do you see in terms of your realized, whether, gross margin per ton or EBITDA per ton, versus what the stripping margins reflect?

Bruce，在你準備好的發言中，你提到磷酸鹽（phosphate）出貨利潤率仍遠高於歷史平均，且預期會維持在高檔。考量你們自身磷酸鹽業務的一些成本動態以及你們正在採取的行動，在目前的投入成本與目前的 GAAP 價格下，你認為你們的實現值——不論是每噸毛利或每噸 EBITDA——相較於剝離利潤率（stripping margins）所反映的水準，差距有多大？

And if I could ask a specific question on the quarter, your ammonia costs in COGS went up sequentially despite more internal ammonia production, which is the cheapest that you could buy. Natural gas has gone down and Tampa ammonia prices really had trended lower through the second quarter and really haven't moved all that much. So can you just provide clarity on why the ammonia costs would have gone up sequentially?

另外我想就本季問一個具體問題：你們 COGS 中的氨成本（ammonia costs）環比上升，儘管你們的內部氨產量增加，而內部產氨是你們能買到的最便宜來源。天然氣價格已下跌，而坦帕氨價格在第二季一路走低，之後其實也沒有太大變動。所以你能否說明一下，為什麼氨成本會環比上升？

Thanks for the question. Let me maybe answer it a little bit, well, differently. Actually, our realized stripping margins are higher than benchmark stripping margins. And that's something that probably don't have a lot of insight as we don't report on that. But because of exactly what you just said, is our ammonia cost advantages with our long-term CF contract as well as up to a third internal production at Faustina at producer economics, and then just our buying power for sulfur and even ammonia that's left on spot, it gives us a pretty good advantage given the geography where we import those raw materials as well.

謝謝你的問題。我可能用稍微不同的方式來回答。其實，我們實現的剝離利潤率高於基準剝離利潤率。這點外界可能不太了解，因為我們沒有揭露這方面的數據。但原因正如你所說：我們在氨方面的成本優勢，來自與 CF 的長期合約，以及在 Faustina 最高可達三分之一的內部生產、以生產商經濟性（producer economics）計價；再加上我們在硫磺、甚至剩餘現貨氨的採購議價能力，並且考量我們進口這些原料的地理位置優勢，讓我們具備相當不錯的優勢。

So it did go up on ammonia cost, as you said, Adam, in Q2, and that's really because, in Q1, our ammonia plant was down for turnaround for much of quarter one, where we did have more spot going into inventory. And that's just actually that raw material ammonia flowing through inventory from [quarter one into quarter two]. So the benefits of running more in quarter two, you'll start to see those in quarter three. So I hope that answers the bulk of your question in a little different way.

如你所說，Adam，第二季氨成本確實上升；主要原因是第一季我們的氨工廠在第一季大部分時間因檢修而停機，因此有較多現貨採購進入庫存。而這其實就是那批原料氨透過庫存結轉，從[第一季流入第二季]。因此，第二季提高運轉帶來的效益，你會在第三季開始看到。希望這樣能以稍微不同的方式回答你問題的重點。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

Chris Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

Bruce, your execution is, I'd say, very much on trajectory for kind of the goals you've been laying out, phosphate stripping margins are looking a little bit higher, the cost curve is a little bit steeper than people have been anticipating, balance sheet is in great condition. I mean, what else do you think needs to be done to reengage investors? Is it your belief that further execution is the key, proving out your thesis in the context of low crop prices? Just what would be your kind of two cents on current market dynamics right now?

Bruce，我會說你們的執行進度非常符合你們一直提出的目標軌跡；磷酸鹽剝離利潤率看起來略高一些，成本曲線也比大家預期的更陡峭，資產負債表狀況也非常好。我的意思是，你認為還需要做什麼才能重新吸引投資人？你是否認為，關鍵在於持續執行、並在低作物價格的背景下驗證你們的論點？你對目前市場動態大概會怎麼看？

Yes. I agree, Chris, and thanks for the question, that market fundamentals, as we talked about, appear to be strong and just don't see anything out there that's going to be a big derailer. But to your point, why are we not getting maybe more credit given how much we're leveraged into phosphates, I think it is on execution and delivering those results.

是的。Chris，我同意，也謝謝你的問題；如我們所談，市場基本面看起來很強，我們也沒有看到任何可能造成重大干擾的因素。但如你所說，為什麼我們沒有因為在磷酸鹽上的高槓桿曝險而獲得更多肯定，我認為關鍵在於執行並交付那些成果。

Yes, we're making progress, and I appreciate the commentary because we feel good about how we're executing on our strategy. But we do still have a lot to go in the back half of the year. And to see that kind of 8 million ton, 7.8 million to 8.2 million ton run rate going into 2025, we still got to deliver upon that. And with that, as you well know, comes significant cost absorption, and those cost absorption numbers aren't even in our cost savings as of right now, and we'll reconcile that and report on that on an annualized basis because of just too much noise from quarter to quarter.

是的，我們正在取得進展，也感謝你的評論，因為我們對策略執行的狀況感到良好。但今年下半年我們仍有很多要完成。而要在 2025 年達到約 800 萬噸、7.8 百萬到 8.2 百萬噸的運轉率（run rate），我們仍必須把它交付出來。而如你所知，這也會帶來顯著的成本吸收（cost absorption）；截至目前，這些成本吸收數字甚至尚未納入我們的成本節省之中。我們會在年度化基礎上進行調節並對外報告，因為季度之間的雜訊實在太大。

So I think it is execution. I think the other thing is -- and maybe, Jenny, if you've got any comments here, but is that people just think China is going to open up some magic floodgate on export. And we just don't see it that way. Based on the intelligence and the people we have in country, as Jenny has talked about, we're seeing very good demand domestically in China on phosphate for agriculture, given their focus on food security.

所以我認為關鍵在於執行力。我覺得另一件事是——也許，Jenny，如果你這裡有任何評論——但人們只是認為中國會在出口上打開某個神奇的閘門。而我們並不這麼看。根據我們掌握的情報以及我們在當地的人員，如Jenny所談到的，我們看到中國國內農業用磷酸鹽需求非常強勁，這與他們對糧食安全的重視有關。

And then you can't ignore the fact that LFP on the industrial side is making significant growth and is somewhat cannibalizing other available agricultural P2O5. So again, I don't know what it's going to take for people to believe in that. But I think this year demonstrates just how that policy in China is impactful. Yeah, OCP may be exporting a little bit more, but the fact that China is exporting that much less kind of neutralizes that. So we just see very constructive fundamentals in phosphates. Maybe people just got to see it for a little bit longer. And no doubt, we got to demonstrate on what we've said we can execute and control.

此外，你也不能忽視工業端的LFP正在顯著成長，並在某種程度上排擠了其他可用於農業的P2O5。所以再說一次，我不知道要怎樣人們才會相信這一點。但我認為今年正好顯示出中國那項政策的影響力有多大。是的，OCP可能出口多了一點，但中國出口少了那麼多，某種程度上就把它抵消了。因此我們認為磷酸鹽的基本面非常建設性。也許大家只是需要再多觀察一段時間。毫無疑問，我們也必須用實際表現證明我們所說的執行與可控性。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

Ben Theurer，巴克萊。

Just wanted to quickly get your thoughts on Fertilizantes for the second half. You clearly had a very strong first half in terms of, like, the distribution margin. You're guiding for the historical range being in there. What are the puts and takes that could potentially take you higher? And if you could give us a preliminary preview as you think about the fourth quarter for the profitability at Fertilizantes.

想快速請教你們對下半年Fertilizantes的看法。你們上半年在例如通路毛利方面表現非常強勁。你們的指引是回到歷史區間之內。有哪些利多與利空因素可能讓你們表現更好？另外，若可以的話，請先給我們一個初步的預覽：你們如何看待Fertilizantes第四季的獲利能力？

I'll start maybe at a high level, and Jenny, I'll turn it over to fill in a little bit more details. But we're very optimistic about the second half of the year in Fertilizantes. I mean, just at a high level, again, just to reiterate kind of how we see this business is 9 million tons distribution historically, growing to 10 million tons from a volume standpoint, $30 to $40 distribution margin, about $100 million of EBITDA contribution on co-products on an annualized basis.

我先從較高層次開始說，Jenny，我再把時間交給你補充更多細節。但我們對Fertilizantes下半年的表現非常樂觀。從高層次來看，再重申一次我們對這項業務的理解：歷史上通路量約900萬噸，從量的角度正成長到1,000萬噸；通路毛利每噸30到40美元；副產品每年年化約貢獻1億美元EBITDA。

And maybe something we haven't talked about publicly, but as much -- it's available in our information, but I think it's worth highlighting is that there's another $100 million thereabouts of SG&A costs that you got to take off the top. So throw all that together, and you can do the math on what you think volumes are going to be quarter by quarter based on historical performance or whatever you do, but given the demand in Brazil, we see good returns and EBITDA contribution out of Fertilizantes in the second half of the year. Jenny?

另外也許有件事我們沒有在公開場合談太多，但其實在我們的資訊中是有的，我覺得值得強調：還有大約1億美元左右的SG&A成本需要先從上面扣除。把這些都加總起來，你可以依據歷史表現或你採用的任何方法，去推算各季的量會是多少；但考量巴西的需求，我們認為Fertilizantes在下半年會帶來不錯的回報與EBITDA貢獻。Jenny？

Yes. I guess, your question specifically on Q4. I just want to say for Q3, repeat, we have solid sales book that we're executing upon. The volume is historically -- as historically, Q3 is the highest quarter, and the gross margin per ton is at the $30 to $40 range. For Q4, depending on how the market is going to move from second half of Q4 into first half of Q1, there might be some shift on the volumes. And also want to remind Q4 is the safrina season, where [nitrogen] has a much higher percentage in the total market, which we participate a little bit less than the safra season. So that's a reminder.

是的。我想你的問題特別是針對第四季。我先說第三季：重申一次，我們有穩健的銷售訂單簿正在執行。量方面一如歷史表現，第三季是最高的一季，而每噸毛利在30到40美元區間。至於第四季，取決於市場從第四季下半段到第一季上半段的走勢，量可能會有一些移動。也提醒一下，第四季是safrinha季，[氮肥]在整體市場中的占比會高很多，而我們在這個季節的參與度會比safra季稍低一些。以上提醒。

Thanks, Jenny. The only other thing maybe to think about is FX tailwinds. I mean, with the FX movement over the last month, several weeks, there's definitely providing some tailwinds to our operating costs that are [real-based]. So that should help on the margin expansion as well.

謝謝，Jenny。另外一點也許可以思考的是匯率的順風。我的意思是，過去一個月、幾週的匯率變動，確實對我們以[雷亞爾計價]的營運成本帶來一些順風。因此也應該有助於毛利擴張。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

Edlain Rodriguez，瑞穗。

Bruce or Jenny, just a quick question on the resiliency of phosphate price. How do you see that playing out in terms of the disconnect between P&K prices. Like, does that gap narrow by P coming down or K going up? Because it doesn't seem like that gap can continue forever.

Bruce或Jenny，想快速問一下磷酸鹽價格的韌性。你們怎麼看P與K價格之間的脫鉤會如何發展？例如，這個差距會是靠P下跌來縮小，還是K上漲來縮小？因為看起來這個差距不可能永遠持續下去。

Yes. Edlain, thanks for your question. I don't know that our crystal ball is any better than yours. And I think it just -- and Jenny, please help. But you go back to the fundamentals, I just think the supply and demand fundamentals on the global scale are different between those two commodities. And just because they are divergent today doesn't mean they need to converge. It would be my thoughts on this. It's very much going to be those two commodities independently, what is going on from a supply and demand standpoint. We know what the crops need.

是的。Edlain，謝謝你的問題。我不知道我們的水晶球是否比你的更準。我想這——Jenny也請補充。但回到基本面，我認為在全球尺度上，這兩種商品的供需基本面是不同的。而且僅僅因為它們今天走勢分歧，並不代表它們必須收斂。這是我的看法。很大程度上，這兩種商品會各自獨立地取決於供需狀況。我們知道作物需要什麼。

It comes down to supply. Supply has probably got more announced, as I said earlier, on potash and what can come to the market over the next decade. In phosphates, it's just not as clear as what is going to be a catalyst to bring, to your point, pricing down. So in the meantime, we're optimistic on P, don't see prices with a lot of risk there in on K. I think the [ZIP code] of where prices are today is pretty solid for the foreseeable future. There may be some seasonal uptick here and there, and from year to year, but I don't see some dramatic change in K moving up or moving down just because they're divergent today.

歸根結底在於供給。供給方面，正如我先前所說，鉀肥有更多已宣布的新增產能，以及未來十年可能進入市場的供給。在磷酸鹽方面，什麼會成為催化劑、把價格拉下來，並沒有那麼清楚——如你所說。因此在此期間，我們對P保持樂觀；在K方面，我不認為價格有很大的下行風險。我認為以今天的價格「區間」來看，在可預見的未來相當穩固。可能會有一些季節性的上行波動，或年度間的變化，但我不認為僅僅因為今天走勢分歧，就會出現K大幅上漲或大幅下跌的劇烈變化。

It looks like Jenny doesn't have anything to add.

看起來Jenny沒有要補充的。

Josh Spector, UBS.

Josh Spector，瑞銀。

This is Lucas Beaumont on for Josh. I just want to go back to your comments kind of on the conversion costs in phosphates. I mean, they're down kind of 15% from the end of the year. But year on year, they're only down sort of about $5 a ton or 5%. And you're still kind of running at about $100 a ton currently. If we go back to, like, 2018, 2019, when you used to produce the 8 million-ton run rate, that was about $65. I mean, we know there's going to be benefits there as you sort of get back up to that run rate, be it the end of this year or sometime in '25. But can you kind of help us think about where is kind of the range there that you're thinking about? Is it $90 or $80? How should we sort of frame that up?

我是代Josh提問的Lucas Beaumont。我想回到你們先前關於磷酸鹽轉換成本的評論。我的意思是，從年底以來大概下降了15%。但若以年對年來看，只下降了大約每噸5美元或5%左右。而你們目前仍大概在每噸100美元左右的水準運行。如果回到2018、2019年，當時你們的產量運行率是800萬噸左右，成本大約是65美元。我的意思是，我們知道當你們回到那樣的運行率時會有一些效益，不論是在今年底或2025年的某個時點。但你們能否幫我們思考一下，你們心中認為可能的區間大概在哪裡？是90美元或80美元嗎？我們應該如何框架化地看待這件事？

Yes. Thanks, Lucas. I don't -- definitely see that as volume improves [at] fixed cost absorption, and there's other benefits like electricity generation that we've talked about rather than buying third-party. We'll produce more of our own internal power that we generate and reap the benefits there. But overall, kind of from that historical high, we see a $20 to $30 reduction in total cost. Will we get back to that $65, $70 number? Listen, the inflation that we've seen overall across the globe in United States is no different and our operations are no different. I don't see getting back to those numbers. But we should definitely see further improvement, maybe another $20 down from where we are right now as we get to that historical run rate.

是的。謝謝你，Lucas。我確實——隨著產量提升、固定成本吸收改善，會看到這一點；另外還有我們先前談過的其他效益，例如發電，而不是向第三方購電。我們將更多使用自發自用的內部電力，並在那方面獲得效益。但整體而言，從那個歷史高點來看，我們看到總成本可降低20至30美元。我們會回到65、70美元那個水準嗎？你看，我們在全球、在美國所看到的通膨並無不同，我們的營運也沒有不同。我不認為能回到那些數字。但我們肯定應該會看到進一步改善，當我們回到那個歷史運行水準時，可能還能在目前基礎上再下降約20美元。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

Andrew Wong，RBC Capital Markets。

So with the expansion of Esterhazy for mid-2025, do you still anticipate needing to keep Colonsay kind of like on hot standby? And what's the cost to maintain that on standby? Like, if you permanently kind of shut that down, what would be a cost savings? And just broadly on the potash strategy, can you just talk about the rationale in maintaining supply flexibility? How do you see that impacting buyer behavior, knowing that supply can just be available when they want it? And would it make more sense to maybe not have that excess capacity or flexibility available and maybe have a little bit more scarcity on supply?

那麼，隨著Esterhazy在2025年中期擴產，你們是否仍預期需要讓Colonsay維持某種「熱備」狀態？維持待命的成本是多少？例如，如果你們永久性地把它關停，能節省多少成本？另外，就整體鉀肥策略而言，能否談談維持供應彈性的理由？你們如何看待這會如何影響買方行為——在他們知道供應可在需要時就能提供的情況下？以及，是否更合理的是不要保留那麼多多餘產能或彈性，讓供應稍微更稀缺一些？

We think that having Colonsay as a flexible option for when the market demand is there and it intersects appropriately with shareholder value, that it does provide significant optionality to the upside for us. And we've demonstrated our responsibility to try to control that volume that we have based on the commitments that we have both to Canpotex and to our customers in North America where we can. But the fact that we need to run it right now is because you take the big dog out of the equation for a month, and that's a lot of tonnage that we have to make up for. And just given the tightness in the market and the inventory. particularly on our side, we don't have inventory built up to be able to buffer that out. So Colonsay needs to come on.

我們認為，將Colonsay作為一個彈性選項，在市場需求出現且與股東價值適當交會時，確實能為我們提供顯著的上行選擇權。而且我們也已展現負責任的態度，會在可行範圍內，依據我們對Canpotex以及北美客戶的承諾來努力控制我們的產量。但我們現在之所以需要運轉它，是因為你把「大狗」從方程式中拿掉一個月，那就是我們必須補上的大量噸數。再加上市場與庫存偏緊，特別是我們這邊，我們沒有建立足夠庫存來作為緩衝。所以Colonsay必須啟動。

How long it will come on? As we always have said and always look at, it is going to come down to what's going on in the marketplace, what do we believe it looks like for the future in that regard -- to your point, we'll make our own opinions on that -- and does that intersect proper shareholder value at the same time. Right now, we're focused on through the end of the year. Colonsay is probably going to have to run to offset the Esterhazy turnaround, but we will continue, as we always have, to monitor the best decisions for Mosaic and our shareholders and our customers and decide what to do with that going forward.

它會運轉多久？正如我們一直所說、也一直在評估的，最終將取決於市場上正在發生什麼、我們對未來的判斷——如你所說，我們會形成自己的看法——以及同時是否能與適當的股東價值相契合。目前我們的重點是到今年年底。Colonsay很可能必須運轉以抵消Esterhazy檢修停產的影響，但我們也會一如既往，持續監控對Mosaic、我們的股東與客戶而言的最佳決策，並決定後續該如何處理。

So with that, I think we're done with the call, operator, on the questions. And I'll just conclude that I'd like to reiterate just a couple of key themes. One is Mosaic delivered solid second-quarter results and operational performance. We are making steady progress on our strategic initiatives to grow the company, manage costs, and maximize returns. Fertilizer demand is robust around the world, and our market outlook remains constructive. And our overall outlook for the remainder of 2024 is positive.

那麼，我想我們的問答就到這裡了，接線員。最後我想重申幾個關鍵主題。第一，Mosaic交出了穩健的第二季業績與營運表現。我們在推進策略性舉措方面持續取得穩定進展，以擴大公司規模、管理成本並最大化報酬。全球肥料需求強勁，我們對市場的展望仍然偏正面。而我們對2024年剩餘期間的整體展望是正向的。

So thanks, everyone, for joining our call, and have a great and safe day.

因此，感謝各位參與本次電話會議，祝各位有個美好且平安的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。