美盛公司 (MOS) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I'll turn the floor over to your host for today's call, Jason Tremblay. Jason, you may begin.

各位早安，歡迎參加美國莫賽克公司（The Mosaic Company）2024 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）此刻，我將把會議交給今天的主持人 Jason Tremblay。Jason，您可以開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our first quarter 2024 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer; followed by a fireside chat, then open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President of Commercial, who will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Bruce Bodine 提供；接著是爐邊談話，然後進入公開問答。執行副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland，以及商務執行副總裁 Jenny Wang 也將出席並回答各位的提問。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce.

我們將在本次電話會議中作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於關於未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們的新聞稿與績效資料亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。現在我想把電話交給 Bruce。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call. In addition to reviewing Mosaic's performance for the quarter, there are 3 key topics we'll discuss today. First, the transaction we announced with Ma'aden highlights our commitment to unlocking shareholder value. Exchanging our 25% stake in the MWSPC joint venture for an approximately $1.5 billion position in Ma'aden provides a clear indication of value and greater capital flexibility in the future. Second, we are making good progress on several high-return, low-capital intensity initiatives that will improve results across the commodity cycle. And third, fertilizer market fundamentals remain constructive and the phosphate supply and demand picture is particularly compelling.

早安。感謝各位參加本次電話會議。除了回顧莫賽克本季表現外，今天我們將討論 3 個關鍵主題。第一，我們與 Ma’aden 公布的交易凸顯我們致力於釋放股東價值。以我們在 MWSPC 合資企業的 25% 持股，交換約 15 億美元的 Ma’aden 持股部位，清楚展現其價值，並在未來提供更大的資本彈性。第二，我們在多項高報酬、低資本密集度的計畫上取得良好進展，將在商品循環各階段改善成果。第三，肥料市場基本面仍具建設性，而磷酸鹽供需情勢尤其引人注目。

As the North America spring planting season winds down and fertilizer prices have moderated, fertilizer demand strength is now emerging in other key agricultural geographies, which will bode well for pricing in the second half of the year. Before I dive deeper into these areas, let me summarize our first quarter results. Mosaic generated adjusted EBITDA of $576 million on revenues of $2.7 billion. The Phosphates segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $277 million on sales volumes of 1.6 million tonnes. Solid North American demand and limited supply pushed phosphate prices higher in the first quarter, and our realized stripping margins remain substantially above historical levels.

隨著北美春耕季接近尾聲且肥料價格已趨於溫和，其他主要農業地區的肥料需求強度正開始浮現，這將有利於下半年價格表現。在我更深入說明這些領域之前，先總結我們第一季的業績。莫賽克在 27 億美元營收下，創造調整後 EBITDA 5.76 億美元。磷酸鹽事業部在銷量 160 萬公噸下，創造調整後 EBITDA 2.77 億美元。北美需求強勁且供給有限推升第一季磷酸鹽價格，而我們實現的剝採利潤率仍顯著高於歷史水準。

Our results in this segment included a higher mix of sales sourced from third parties to mitigate the impact of the heavy turnaround schedule we discussed last quarter. The Potash segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $281 million on sales of 2.2 million tonnes, reflecting the benefits of strong spring seasonal demand in North America. Global prices have stabilized, including in Brazil, where we're seeing prices move higher as we head toward the [safra] season.

本事業部的結果包含較高比例來自第三方的銷售來源，以降低我們上季所提及密集歲修排程的影響。鉀肥事業部在銷量 220 萬公噸下，創造調整後 EBITDA 2.81 億美元，反映北美春季季節性需求強勁所帶來的效益。全球價格已趨於穩定，包括巴西在內；隨著我們邁向 [safra] 季，我們看到價格走高。

For the first quarter, Mosaic Fertilizantes generated adjusted EBITDA of $83 million from sales of 1.7 million tonnes. The continued divergence of our performance from many others in the Brazil ag industry is resulting from the decisions we've made to prioritize risk management and margin over volume. Last year, we quickly worked through high-cost inventory. And this year, we are navigating the challenging credit and liquidity environment by prioritizing sales to lower credit risk customers, demanding prepayments and insisting on contract performance.

第一季，Mosaic Fertilizantes 在銷量 170 萬公噸下，創造調整後 EBITDA 8,300 萬美元。我們的表現持續與巴西農業產業中許多同業出現分歧，源於我們所做的決策：優先考量風險管理與利潤率，而非單純追求銷量。去年，我們迅速消化高成本庫存。今年，我們在具挑戰性的信用與流動性環境中，透過優先向信用風險較低的客戶銷售、要求預付款並堅持合約履約，來因應局勢。

Our distribution margin improved in the second half of last year and first quarter results were significantly better than expected. We also had very strong co-product volume and margin performance during the quarter. Our results this quarter show that we're successfully working through challenging environments to drive strong results. At the same time, we are focused on creating shareholder value in additional ways.

我們的通路利潤率在去年下半年有所改善，而第一季結果顯著優於預期。本季我們的副產品銷量與利潤率表現也非常強勁。本季結果顯示，我們正成功在具挑戰性的環境中推動強勁成果。同時，我們也專注於以更多方式創造股東價值。

A great example of this is our transaction with Ma'aden, which will exchange our 25% position in the MWSPC joint venture for an approximately $1.5 billion position in Ma'aden shares. This new structure allows our successful long-term partnership with Ma'aden to continue while also providing increased investment transparency and flexibility for capital redeployment over time.

一個很好的例子就是我們與 Ma’aden 的交易：我們將以在 MWSPC 合資企業的 25% 持股，交換約 15 億美元的 Ma’aden 股票部位。此一新架構讓我們與 Ma’aden 成功的長期合作關係得以延續，同時也提升投資透明度，並在時間推移中提供更大的資本再配置彈性。

I should note that we believe that neither this transaction nor any potential future transactions involving the Ma'aden shares will result in any material tax friction. We have several other ongoing initiatives to drive improved returns. Our $150 million cost reduction plan is on track in delivering early results. Potash production cash cost per tonne declined about $10 in the first quarter compared with the same period in the prior year. We are rightsizing our workforce and have identified opportunities to reduce our third-party contractors over the next 18 months, which will result in $20 million to $30 million in annual cost savings when complete.

我也要指出，我們認為此交易以及任何未來可能涉及 Ma’aden 股票的交易，都不會產生任何重大稅負摩擦。我們還有數項正在進行的計畫以提升報酬。我們 1.5 億美元的成本削減計畫正按進度推進，並已交出初步成果。第一季鉀肥每公噸生產現金成本較去年同期下降約 10 美元。我們正在調整人力規模，並已找出在未來 18 個月內降低第三方承包商使用的機會；完成後將帶來每年 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元的成本節省。

We are making progress on our SG&A expense management. With our first quarter SG&A expenses down by $21 million or 16% compared with a year ago. We are also focused on improving and optimizing our operations. In phosphate, we're making good progress on our volume improved plans through the execution of extensive maintenance turnarounds, including activities at the Riverview and New Wales plants in the first and second quarters and a turnaround at the Louisiana plant in the second quarter.

我們在 SG&A（銷售、一般及行政）費用管理方面也取得進展；第一季 SG&A 費用較一年前減少 2,100 萬美元，降幅 16%。我們也專注於改善並最佳化營運。在磷酸鹽方面，我們透過執行大規模維修歲修，正穩步推進提升產量的計畫，包括第一季與第二季在 Riverview 與 New Wales 工廠的作業，以及第二季在 Louisiana 工廠的歲修。

In potash, our Esterhazy Hydrofloat project, which will give us an additional 400,000 tonnes of capacity will be in service by mid next year. We are expanding our market access with the construction of a 1 million-tonne blending plant at Palmeirante in the fast-growing northern agricultural region of Brazil. The project is well underway. We are currently building the warehouse structure, support buildings and electrical infrastructure and expect to complete the project early next year. We have recently completed the MicroEssentials conversion at our Riverview facility.

在鉀肥方面，我們的 Esterhazy Hydrofloat 專案將新增 40 萬公噸產能，預計於明年年中投入服務。我們也透過在巴西北部快速成長的農業區 Palmeirante 興建一座 100 萬公噸的混配廠，來擴大市場可及性。該專案進展順利。我們目前正在建造倉庫結構、附屬建物與電力基礎設施，並預期於明年初完成。我們近期已完成 Riverview 設施的 MicroEssentials 轉換。

Once it is fully ramped up, over half of our U.S. phosphate production will be higher-margin value-added products. We are also on track to reduce our capital expenditures by $200 million in this year versus last year. These initiatives all have one thing in common. They improve returns across the cycle. With that, let's take a closer look at agriculture and fertilizer markets. While corn and soybean prices have softened recently, farmers remain profitable. Even a small lift in these commodity places would return farm profitability to quite healthy levels. Moreover, the prices for many other ag commodities, such as palm oil and rice remain at very attractive levels.

待全面爬坡完成後，我們在美國的磷酸鹽產量將有一半以上為高毛利的加值產品。我們也按計畫在今年將資本支出較去年降低 2 億美元。這些計畫都有一個共同點：它們能在景氣循環各階段提升報酬。接下來，讓我們更深入看看農業與肥料市場。雖然玉米與黃豆價格近期走弱，農民仍維持獲利。即便這些商品價格小幅回升，也能使農場獲利回到相當健康的水準。此外，許多其他農產品（例如棕櫚油與稻米）的價格仍處於非常具吸引力的水準。

In addition, weather is shifting rapidly from a strong El Niño to La Niña, which should prove positive for Southeast Asia, India and Brazil. Favorable conditions in Southeast Asia are particularly important as we expect the region will be responsible for about 2/3 of global potash shipment growth this year. In fact, in January and February, potash imports to Malaysia and Indonesia were up about 35% versus a year ago due to depleted channel inventories in a very constructive potash to palm oil price ratio.

此外，天氣型態正迅速由強烈的聖嬰（El Niño）轉為反聖嬰（La Niña），這對東南亞、印度與巴西應屬正面。東南亞的有利條件尤其重要，因為我們預期該地區今年將貢獻全球鉀肥出貨量成長約 2/3。事實上，1 月與 2 月馬來西亞與印尼的鉀肥進口量較一年前增加約 35%，原因在於通路庫存偏低，且鉀肥相對棕櫚油的價格比率非常具建設性。

Phosphate markets remain tight, we are seeing the expected post-spring seasonal slowdown in North America, but Brazilian demand for the safra season is emerging. Strong demand and limited supply pushed SSP prices in Brazil, up by $30 per tonne in April. The recent seasonal uptick in Chinese phosphate export availability has exerted downward pressure on prices in India. But India demand for phosphate this year is expected to be solid on the back of an above-average monsoon season. India's demand will surely exceed China's ability to supply the nation. We expect the Indian government to increase the maximum retail price to allow importer economics to work in the current global pricing environment. And thus, incentivize producers to send tonnes there.

磷酸鹽市場仍然吃緊。我們看到北美在春耕季後出現預期中的季節性放緩，但巴西針對 safra 季的需求正在浮現。需求強勁且供給有限，使巴西 SSP 價格在 4 月每公噸上漲 30 美元。近期中國磷酸鹽出口供給在季節性回升，對印度價格造成下行壓力。但在高於平均的季風季支撐下，預期印度今年的磷酸鹽需求將維持穩健。印度需求勢必超過中國供應該國的能力。我們預期印度政府將提高最高零售價格，以使進口商在目前全球定價環境下具備可行的經濟性，從而激勵生產商將貨量運往印度。

Longer term, the outlook for phosphate continues to be very positive. Demand is growing to produce more grains and oilseeds for food and biofuels and for increasing industrial uses, including battery production. At the same time, limited new supply is coming to market and Chinese exports are down about 25% from historical norms. The structural changes in phosphate supply and demand point to strong fundamentals in the years ahead. The global potash supply and demand picture is balanced, the same seasonal dynamic is occurring in potash, North America is slowing, but Brazil is picking up, resulting in a $30 increase in MOP prices in Brazil in recent weeks, an indication of positive market sentiment and constructive supply and demand dynamics.

從較長期來看，磷酸鹽前景仍非常正面。需求正隨著糧食與生質燃料所需的穀物與油籽增產，以及包含電池生產在內的工業用途增加而成長。同時，新供給投放市場的規模有限，而中國出口量較歷史常態下降約 25%。磷酸鹽供需的結構性變化指向未來數年強勁的基本面。全球鉀肥供需情勢則大致平衡；鉀肥也出現相同的季節性動態：北美放緩、巴西回升，導致近幾週巴西 MOP 價格上漲 30 美元，顯示市場情緒正面且供需動態具建設性。

With Southeast Asia demand returning, we continue to expect near record global potash shipments this year. Now moving on to our outlook. For phosphate, we expect second quarter sales volumes of 1.6 million to 1.8 million tonnes and average FOB prices at the plant of $530 to $580 per tonne. The fire at our Riverview facility caused damage to pipes, pumps and a phosphogypsum transfer station. Our team engineered a temporary solution that enabled us to restore some phosphoric acid production in just 2 weeks, and we are now back at full capacity.

隨著東南亞需求回升，我們仍預期今年全球鉀肥出貨量將接近歷史高點。接下來談我們的展望。就磷酸鹽而言，我們預期第二季銷售量為160萬至180萬公噸，且工廠FOB平均價格為每公噸530至580美元。Riverview廠區的火災造成管線、幫浦以及磷石膏轉運站受損。我們團隊設計了臨時解決方案，使我們在短短2週內就恢復部分磷酸產能，目前已回到滿載產能。

We expect some reduction in the second and third quarter sales volumes, but overall, the impact was minimized. Our second quarter guidance reflects the impacts of the fire, the ongoing turnaround activity and the seasonal softening in the U.S., partially offset by improvements in Brazil. For potash, we expect second quarter sales volumes of 2.2 million to 2.4 million tonnes and average FOB price at the mine of $210 to $250 per tonne. For Mosaic Fertilizantes, we expect second quarter sales volumes and profitability to improve from the first quarter, reflecting seasonality and our differentiated approach to tackling Brazil's operating environment.

我們預期第二季與第三季的銷售量會略有下滑，但整體而言影響已降至最低。我們第二季指引反映了火災影響、持續進行的歲修活動，以及美國季節性需求轉弱；巴西市場改善則部分抵銷上述影響。就鉀肥而言，我們預期第二季銷售量為220萬至240萬公噸，且礦山FOB平均價格為每公噸210至250美元。就Mosaic Fertilizantes而言，我們預期第二季銷售量與獲利能力將較第一季改善，反映季節性因素以及我們以差異化方式因應巴西營運環境。

We expect planned turnaround activities to weigh on production margins in the second quarter. As you recall, we completed the high-priced inventory destocking in the first half of last year. Going forward, we expect distribution margin to be at normal annualized level of $30 to $40 per tonne, but it may vary from quarter-to-quarter. To conclude, despite the seasonal reset of the market as we transition out of North America planting season, our outlook for the year is positive. We are taking near-term actions and executing long-term initiatives, as our agreement with Ma'aden demonstrates, to continue to strengthen our business and maximize shareholder value. Now we'll move on to Q&A.

我們預期計畫性歲修活動將在第二季對生產毛利率造成壓力。如各位所記得，我們已在去年上半年完成高價庫存去化。展望未來，我們預期通路毛利將回到正常年化水準、約每公噸30至40美元，但可能會隨季度而波動。最後，儘管市場在北美播種季結束、進入季節性重置之際，我們對今年的展望仍然正向。我們正採取短期行動並推動長期計畫；正如我們與Ma'aden的協議所示，將持續強化業務並最大化股東價值。接下來進入問答。

Thanks, Bruce. Before we move on to the live Q&A, as we have done in past quarters, we would like to address some of the most common questions we received after publishing our earnings last night. Our first question relates to the Ma'aden transaction. What does the deal mean for Mosaic? And how does it fit with your broader portfolio strategy?

謝謝，Bruce。在進入現場問答之前，如同過去幾季一樣，我們想先回應昨晚公布財報後收到的一些最常見問題。第一個問題與Ma'aden交易有關。這筆交易對Mosaic意味著什麼？又如何與你們更廣泛的投資組合策略相契合？

First, I want to mention that our partnership with Ma'aden has been a great one. We brought deep technical expertise to the joint venture, and we benefited from secure phosphate supply for our customers in key markets. Now as Ma'aden shareholders, our relationship has evolved but our partnership continues. We're committed to working together on opportunities that create mutual benefits. When I think about the transaction, I believe Mosaic shareholders will benefit in multiple ways.

首先，我想提到我們與Ma'aden的合作一直非常成功。我們為合資企業帶來深厚的技術專長，也因而在關鍵市場為客戶取得穩定的磷酸鹽供應。如今作為Ma'aden股東，我們的關係有所演進，但合作仍將持續。我們承諾將共同把握能創造互利的機會。就這筆交易而言，我相信Mosaic股東將以多種方式受益。

The deal provides a fair value for our investment in the Kingdom, gives investors transparency on that value and greatly improves our capital flexibility over time. In terms of our vision for the broader portfolio, we're continuing to invest in our competitively advantaged and best-performing assets. This is why we're expanding our MicroEssentials production, growing our distribution business in Brazil, and further optimizing our Esterhazy operation.

這筆交易為我們在沙烏地王國的投資提供了公允價值，讓投資人對該價值更具透明度，並隨時間大幅提升我們的資本運用彈性。就我們對更廣泛投資組合的願景而言，我們將持續投資於具競爭優勢且表現最佳的資產。這也是為什麼我們正在擴增MicroEssentials產能、擴大巴西的通路業務，並進一步優化Esterhazy營運。

We're also focused on demonstrating value and creating still greater capital flexibility over time. You saw an example of this last year when we divested Streamsong Resort for $160 million, and the Ma'aden transaction is just the latest iteration. Our continuing review of assets could result in a number of additional outcomes, including divestitures, finding partners for certain parts of our business or idling underperforming assets.

我們也聚焦於展現價值，並隨時間創造更大的資本彈性。你們去年已看到一個例子：我們以1.6億美元出售Streamsong Resort，而Ma'aden交易只是最新一例。我們持續檢視資產，可能帶來多種後續結果，包括出售資產、為業務的某些部分尋找合作夥伴，或讓表現不佳的資產暫停運作。

These actions, together with our cost initiatives and CapEx reduction are all in service of driving returns for shareholders.

這些行動，加上我們的成本改善措施與資本支出（CapEx）削減，都是為了提升股東報酬。

Our next question relates to the markets. What is your view on how the potash and phosphate markets will evolve for the remainder of the year?

下一個問題與市場有關。你們如何看待今年剩餘期間鉀肥與磷酸鹽市場的演變？

Well potash and phosphate markets are playing out much as we expected. Ag fundamentals remain constructive in most parts of the world. China's long-term appetite for ag commodity imports remain strong and is particularly robust for corn and beef. This means farmers have incentive to continue to maximize crop production. We saw that play out in the spring planting season in North America, which brought very strong fertilizer demand.

鉀肥與磷酸鹽市場的走勢大致如我們所預期。全球多數地區的農業基本面仍具支撐。中國對農產品進口的長期需求依然強勁，尤其是玉米與牛肉。這意味著農民仍有誘因持續最大化作物產量。我們在北美春季播種季也看到這點，帶動了非常強勁的肥料需求。

The current market reflects seasonality that one would expect. After a strong spring price resets are typical ahead of North American summer fill demand, which we expect to be normal. In Brazil, farmers are preparing for their main soybean growing season. After a delayed start to fertilizer buying, demand has emerged over the last several weeks, which we're seeing in potash and phosphate prices. Both are up roughly $30 per tonne from the lows and demand is expected to intensify as we head towards the [safra] season.

目前市場反映了可預期的季節性。在強勁的春季之後，通常會在北美夏季補庫需求前出現價格重置，我們預期該補庫需求將屬正常水準。在巴西，農民正為主要的大豆種植季做準備。在肥料採購延後啟動之後，過去幾週需求已浮現，我們也在鉀肥與磷酸鹽價格上看到反映。兩者自低點以來大約上漲每公噸30美元，且隨著我們進入[safra]季節，預期需求將進一步升溫。

In India, low fertilizer inventories and expectations for a good monsoon this year should drive strong demand. In phosphates, we still expect total Chinese exports to be flat to slightly down from 2023, which is well below historical norms. Tight supply should support above normal stripping margins through the year. We believe the potash market is balanced. Russian and Belarusian producers are getting back to prewar and pre-sanctioned export levels, but the demand is there to absorb it, and we continue to expect near-record shipments this year.

在印度，偏低的肥料庫存以及對今年季風良好的預期，應會帶動強勁需求。在磷酸鹽方面，我們仍預期中國總出口量將與2023年持平或略降，且明顯低於歷史常態。供給吃緊應可支撐全年高於正常水準的加工利差。我們認為鉀肥市場供需平衡。俄羅斯與白俄羅斯生產商正回到戰前與制裁前的出口水準，但需求足以吸收新增供給，我們仍預期今年出貨量將接近歷史高點。

Southeast Asian demand, in particular, stands out because of their depleted channel inventories and constructive palm oil fundamentals. Additionally, the La Niña weather pattern should provide more rainfall to support the increased demand. In summary, we're seeing normal seasonality, and we expect constructive market conditions throughout the year.

尤其值得注意的是東南亞需求，因其通路庫存已被消化，加上棕櫚油基本面具支撐。此外，拉尼娜（La Niña）天氣型態應會帶來更多降雨，以支撐需求增加。總結而言，我們看到的是正常的季節性變化，並預期全年市場條件將保持正向。

As a follow-up on Brazil, are you seeing the same stress and challenges in the market which others are experiencing?

針對巴西的追問：你們是否也看到與其他業者相同的市場壓力與挑戰？

We believe Mosaic has a competitive advantage in Brazil. We have a large and geographically diverse distribution network across the country. This not only minimizes our risk exposure to disruptions in any one specific region but also equips us with the best market intelligence to inform our business decisions. Our unique positioning in the market is what led us to proactively manage our inventories last year, and set us up for a much more constructive first quarter in 2024. Now we're certainly seeing the same credit and liquidity issues in Brazil that many others are. But our view into the market has allowed us to avoid any significant impact to our business to date by identifying customer issues early and taking decisive action knowing that our decisions might have short-term impacts to market share and sales volumes.

我們認為Mosaic在巴西具備競爭優勢。我們在全國擁有規模大且地理分布多元的通路網絡。這不僅能降低我們在任何單一地區發生中斷時的風險曝險，也讓我們掌握最佳市場情報以支援商業決策。我們在市場上的獨特定位，使我們得以在去年主動管理庫存，並為2024年第一季更具建設性的表現奠定基礎。當然，我們確實也看到巴西存在許多同業面臨的信用與流動性問題。但我們對市場的洞察讓我們能及早辨識客戶問題並果斷採取行動，迄今避免對業務造成任何重大影響，即使我們知道這些決策可能在短期內影響市占率與銷售量。

Some of those actions include securing a higher percentage of our sales to lower credit risk dealers, taking prepayment from customers when possible and ensuring sales contract integrity. As a result, our collections as a percentage of sales are well ahead of the same time last year. And our distribution margin per tonne exceeded our internal expectations for the quarter. We believe we have an enormous structural advantage in the country and the combination of risk diversification and proactive risk management are allowing us to successfully navigate the current environment.

其中一些行動包括：提高對信用風險較低經銷商的銷售占比、在可能情況下向客戶收取預付款，以及確保銷售合約的完整性。因此，我們的回款占銷售比率明顯優於去年同期，而我們每公噸的通路毛利也超出內部對本季的預期。我們相信我們在當地具備巨大的結構性優勢，而風險分散與主動風險管理的結合，正使我們能成功因應目前環境。

Thanks, Bruce. And with that, we'll now move on to the open question-and-answer session. Operator, please open the line for follow-up questions.

謝謝，Bruce。接下來我們將進入開放式問答環節。接線員，請開放線路以便進行後續提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Our first question comes from Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Steve Byrne。

I'm curious where you think you could get the Fertilizantes business in terms of EBITDA over the next coming years. You've got this (inaudible) asset you're building. You got productivity initiatives. You got the government trying to expand cultivated land in the Cerrado region. Where do you think that business can get to?

我想了解你們認為未來幾年Fertilizantes業務的EBITDA可以做到什麼水準。你們正在建置這個（聽不清）資產，也有生產力提升計畫，政府也在嘗試擴大Cerrado地區的耕地面積。你們認為這個業務能達到什麼程度？

Steve, thanks. Let me answer it this way. And I think we've been consistent about this in the past. But the way I look at EBITDA generation in that business is we've got 9 million tonnes of kind of distribution capability today at $30 to $40 distribution margins. On top of that, we've talked about before, we've got co-products and other product sales of probably around another $100 million. And we've announced the Palmeirante project and going into 2025, when that's complete, we'll add another 1 million tonnes of distribution capability, add that $30 to $40 margin and you kind of add all those up in the kind of the baseline. The other things that we are looking at is our cost reduction initiatives.

Steve，謝謝。我用這樣的方式回答。我想我們過去在這點上一直很一致。我看這項業務的EBITDA創造能力時，目前我們大約有900萬公噸的通路能力，通路毛利約每公噸30到40美元。在此之上，我們之前也談過，還有副產品與其他產品銷售，可能約再增加1億美元左右。我們也已宣布Palmeirante專案，進入2025年、當該專案完成後，我們將再增加100萬公噸的通路能力，再加上每公噸30到40美元的毛利，把這些加總起來就是基準情境。其他我們也在看的，還包括我們的成本削減措施。

And those are going to play out in a couple of different ways that would affect probably the ultimate P&Ls there. Some of what we announced in the prerecorded calls have some of the third-party contractor costs of $20 million to $30 million. A good chunk of that is in Brazil. And then some of our GDA savings will flow through to that as well. So we should see something there on top of that. But outside of those type of things, I think that's a good way to look at kind of the base. We also believe that our distribution businesses, particularly in Brazil, could be the platform to launch our biosciences portfolio with the reach and access that we have in Brazil.

而這些將以幾種不同方式發揮作用，可能會影響那邊最終的損益（P&L）。我們在預錄電話會議中宣布的部分內容，包含第三方承包商成本約2,000萬至3,000萬美元，其中相當大一部分在巴西。此外，我們的一些GDA節省也會反映到那裡。因此，除了上述之外，我們應該還會看到一些額外的改善。但撇開這類事項不談，我認為這是看待基礎情況的一個好方式。我們也相信，我們的分銷業務，特別是在巴西，憑藉我們在巴西的覆蓋與觸達能力，可能成為推出我們生物科學產品組合的平台。

And we have kind of launched that earlier this year, and we'll kick that off and probably start to see gradual growth starting in 2025 of EBITDA contribution there as well. So depending on where that goes ultimately, you can start to put those pieces together and see appreciable improvement in EBITDA from what we're at right now.

而我們今年稍早已算是啟動了這項工作，接下來會正式推進，並且可能從2025年開始，逐步看到其對EBITDA貢獻的漸進式成長。因此，視最終發展而定，你可以把這些拼圖拼在一起，並看到相較於我們目前水準，EBITDA出現可觀的改善。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的Vincent Andrews。

Bruce, is there a way to hedge in the value of the Ma'aden position since it's a publicly traded equity. I'm just looking at their share price being at record level and your's not. So I'm just wondering if there's a way you could maybe crystallize or walk in that value now and maybe put it to work somehow in your own equity ahead of the lockup period on the shares?

Bruce，既然Ma’aden的持股是一檔公開交易的股票，有沒有辦法對其價值進行避險？我只是看到他們的股價在歷史高位，而你們的股價不是。所以我想知道，是否有辦法你們現在就把那個價值「鎖定」或「落袋」，並在股份鎖定期到期前，以某種方式把它運用到你們自己的股票上？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Vince. But let me turn it over to Clint and as he's been involved in a lot of the deal making on this.

是的，謝謝你的問題，Vince。不過我先把這題交給Clint，因為他在這筆交易的很多談判上都有參與。

Yes, Vincent, I would say, look, protecting our investment, I think, could be important. And certainly, we'll look at the different options that are available to us, I think we'd have to consider the liquidity of the market that it's traded on and other factors like that. So I would say more to come on that. What we'll need to continue thinking through exactly the best way to manage that position. But I would say right now, we're not ready to speak with any clarity on that topic any further.

是的，Vincent，我會說，保護我們的投資我認為可能很重要。我們當然會評估可用的不同選項；我想我們必須考量該股票交易市場的流動性以及其他類似因素。所以我會說，後續還會有更多資訊。我們需要持續思考，究竟以什麼方式管理這個部位才是最佳做法。但我想就目前而言，我們還沒準備好就這個主題做出更清楚的說明。

I apologize. I was looking at the wrong name on the screen, sorry.

抱歉，我剛剛看錯螢幕上的名字了，對不起。

Our next question comes from Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行（Scotiabank）的Ben Isaacson。

This is Viktor stepping in for Ben. On your Q1 slide deck under performance highlights, you referenced that phosphate supply and demand looks particularly compelling. Two questions. First, can you provide some color on that statement? How do you see the supply and demand balance evolving that makes it particularly compelling? And then by extension, why is output for potash, not particularly compelling?

我是Viktor，代替Ben提問。在你們第一季（Q1）的簡報中「績效亮點」那頁，你們提到磷酸鹽的供需看起來特別有吸引力。我有兩個問題。第一，你能否補充說明這句話的背景？你如何看待供需平衡的演變，使其特別有吸引力？第二，延伸來說，為什麼鉀肥（potash）的產出就不算特別有吸引力？

Thanks, Victor. So I'll start with phosphate. We definitely view that the S&D in the overall market is tight on the phosphate side. A lot of that is due to really China backing off on their historical exports. And exports from a few years ago are down 25% from some of the high watermarks on that side, which is a significant reduction of 4 million or so tonnes out of the supply side. Demand has recovered back to kind of prewar levels overall and pretty close to that with the appreciation that we have in the market baked in this year.

謝謝你，Victor。我先談磷酸鹽。我們確實認為整體市場在磷酸鹽端的供需（S&D）偏緊。很大一部分原因在於中國縮減了其歷史性的出口。相較於幾年前的高點，出口量下降了25%，這是供給端相當顯著的縮減，約減少了400萬噸左右。需求方面，整體已回升到接近戰前水準，並且考量到我們今年已反映在市場中的價格上漲因素，也大致接近該水準。

And there really is no new significant supply. OCP has had a little bit of supply come on. But most of that is in the market now. It may be a small amount remaining. And then the other factor is China is really focusing on shifting some of their agricultural P205 into industrial to support their lithium iron phosphate battery production. So that competition for that phosphate molecule, particularly in China, is causing supply tightening even further on the agricultural phosphate supply.

而且確實沒有新的重大供給。OCP有少量新增供給釋出，但大多已經進入市場，可能只剩下一小部分。此外，另一個因素是中國正著重把部分農業用P2O5轉向工業用途，以支援其磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）電池的生產。因此，對磷酸鹽分子的競爭，特別是在中國，正使農業用磷酸鹽供給進一步收緊。

So those combinations really are the structural changes that have been significant recently. But even if you go back in time and you look at China's production capability, and it underpins why their exports are down. Really, there's been a structural change in their output of significance, 25%, 30% over the last, say, decade. And couple that with some of the policy changes, their domestic food security focus, the LFP batteries, as we talked about really is a structural change there that has made the phosphate market, particularly tight. On potash, it's definitely not the tightness that we feel on phosphate.

因此，這些組合因素確實是近期顯著的結構性變化。即便你回頭看中國的產能，也能理解為什麼他們的出口下降。實際上，他們的產出在過去大約十年出現了顯著的結構性變化，約25%到30%。再加上一些政策變化、其國內糧食安全的重點，以及我們提到的LFP電池，這些確實都是結構性改變，使得磷酸鹽市場特別緊俏。至於鉀肥，確實沒有我們在磷酸鹽上感受到的那種緊俏程度。

But we would say that it's pretty balanced. Just a couple of years ago, we were wondering if potash demand would ever return to that kind of 70 million tonne mark and sure enough, it has. And we believe that it's going to stay that way this -- this year, if not a little bit higher, and then continue to appreciate at kind of that 1% to 2% compound annual growth rate. But the Russians on the supply side and the Belarusians have been very effective at getting back to kind of their prewar pre-sanctioned levels, which has allowed kind of a more balanced supply.

但我們會說，鉀肥市場相當平衡。就在幾年前，我們還在想鉀肥需求是否能回到約7,000萬噸的水準，而事實證明它確實回來了。我們相信今年會維持在這個水準，甚至可能略高，之後並將以約1%到2%的年複合成長率持續成長。但供給端方面，俄羅斯與白俄羅斯在恢復到戰前、制裁前的水準上非常有效率，這使得供給更趨平衡。

We also see some additional supply coming out of Laos. But with kind of our estimate of last year to this year, but just under 3 million-tonne growth in the market, a lot of that is being absorbed by China -- or I'm sorry, by Russia and Belarusia and then a little bit by Laos. But the rest would be absorbed with any excess capacity in Canada. So pretty balanced constructive. And again, everything underpinned by population growth, good ag fundamentals driving that demand at that kind of good growth rate over the foreseeable future. Jenny, anything that maybe we should add.

我們也看到寮國有一些新增供給。不過以我們對去年到今年市場成長（略低於300萬噸）的估計來看，其中很大一部分被中國——抱歉，是被俄羅斯與白俄羅斯吸收，另外一小部分由寮國吸收。其餘則會由加拿大的任何閒置產能來吸收。因此整體相當平衡且具建設性。而且，一切仍由人口成長與良好的農業基本面所支撐，推動需求在可預見的未來以那樣的良好成長率前進。Jenny，有沒有什麼需要補充的？

Thanks, Bruce. I think you got that covered. Probably just some data point on phosphates. In Q1, Chinese export actually were reduced 70%, 7-0 percent, which was 1 million tonnes reduction. What does mean to the market? At the end of the spring season in northern hemisphere market, the major market ended the season with a very low inventory. For India, the inventory at the end of March was down by 28% year-over-year, which is 800,000 tonnes lower than the last year, which was already low. In Brazil, the inventory level was down by 30%, which is 700,000 tonnes year-over-year. So all this very low inventory in the major market are portending a very strong pent-up demand for the rest of the year. So I just want to add that data point on the phosphate market.

謝謝，Bruce。我想你已經講得很完整了。我可能補充一個磷酸鹽的數據點：在第一季（Q1），中國出口實際上減少了70%，也就是7-0%，相當於減少了100萬噸。這對市場意味著什麼？在北半球春耕季結束時，主要市場以非常低的庫存結束該季。以印度為例，3月底的庫存年減28%，比去年少了80萬噸，而去年其實已經很低了。在巴西，庫存水準下降了30%，年減70萬噸。因此，主要市場的這些極低庫存，預示著今年剩餘時間將出現非常強勁的被壓抑需求。我只是想補充這個關於磷酸鹽市場的數據點。

Our next question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO.

下一個問題來自BMO的Joel Jackson。

I want to follow up on the Ma'aden transaction. Talk about what other maybe deals could be on the table? Would you be looking at shopping the operational stake in the JV to other like producers to be able to cash out may be sooner by small evaluation, like were there other deals on the table? Why was this the best deal? You did talk about the rationale, but just that. And also, I think there was a view when you got involved with this maybe a decade ago that this is going to help automotive consolidation phosphate, right?

我想追問Ma’aden這筆交易。談談還有哪些其他可能的交易在考慮範圍內？你們是否會考慮把合資企業（JV）中的營運性持股拿去向其他同業生產商兜售，以便可能更早套現，即使估值可能較小——當時是否有其他交易方案？為什麼這是最好的交易？你們確實談過其理由，但我想再確認一下。另外，我記得大約十年前你們參與這件事時，市場有一種看法是，這將有助於磷酸鹽領域的整合，對吧？

Potash caught back then and OCP was starting to work together on to be you and Ma'aden working together a bit you're going to help Ma'aden, ramp up their operation, get expertise and maybe work together a bit more. Is it maybe a bit of a deconsolidation in the space or not really?

當時鉀肥（Potash）以及OCP也開始合作，你們與Ma’aden一起合作，會協助Ma’aden把營運拉升、提供專業能力，並可能更進一步合作。那麼，這是否反而有點像是產業的「去整合」，還是不太算？

Joel, thanks. As far as other deal structures, there -- we've been contemplating how best -- one of our challenges is getting for our own shareholders and investors, what is the real value of this investment and making it more transparent. And then obviously, you got to work with the shareholder partners on what deal constructs. They'd be willing to do as well. So ultimately, this was the best one to bring that transparency of value and give us that capital flexibility that we wanted into the future, and kind of is what it is from that perspective.

Joel，謝謝。就其他交易結構而言——我們一直在思考如何做到最好——我們的一個挑戰是，如何讓我們自己的股東與投資人看清這項投資的真實價值，並讓它更透明。當然，你也必須與股東夥伴一起合作，看看他們願意接受什麼樣的交易架構。最終，這個方案最能帶來價值透明度，並給我們未來想要的資本彈性；從這個角度來看，就是如此。

Going back to 13 years ago when we first got into this, I can't say that I remember all that was said for sure. But from our perspective, one of the big reasons to get into that joint venture was a hedge on risk of some of our permitting issues around our South Fort Meade mine at the time and some of the challenges that we were suffering with that here in North America, and that would allow us kind of a hedge for longer-term idling of that facility due to lack of permits.

回到13年前我們第一次參與這件事時，我不能說我還記得當時所有說法。但從我們的角度來看，加入那個合資企業的一個重要原因，是為了對沖當時我們在南佛羅里達Fort Meade礦場（South Fort Meade mine）周邊的一些許可（permitting）問題風險，以及我們在北美這裡所面臨的一些挑戰；這能讓我們在長期因缺乏許可而可能使該設施停擺的情況下，提供某種對沖。

I also thought that Ma'aden at the time, would always have some advantaged cost structures with raw materials and co-participating and that probably wasn't a bad idea at the time. So as far as consolidation, I don't think that was our primary objective, getting into it. And we really don't think about the this deal as being anti to consolidation is that either as we sit here and think about it today, it really is trying to bring more clarity on the value of our investment in the Kingdom and then allowing us more flexibility in the future for capital redeployment or capital allocation, how we so choose in the future. Clint, I don't know if there's anything to add.

我當時也認為，Ma’aden 一直都會在原料與共同參與等方面擁有一些具優勢的成本結構，而在當時那可能也不是個壞主意。所以就整併而言，我不認為那是我們進入這筆交易的主要目標。而且即便我們坐在這裡、以今天的角度來看，我們也不認為這筆交易是反整併的；它真正要做的是，讓我們在王國的投資價值更清晰，並在未來讓我們在資本再部署或資本配置上有更大的彈性，依我們未來的選擇而定。Clint，我不知道你是否還要補充什麼。

No, the only thing that I would add is that, obviously, we've laid out some of the things that were on our mind as we thought about this transaction. I think at the same time, our partner was looking to consolidate ownership of the JV for their own purposes. And so I think as we looked at the structure, I think the relationship is important. I think the partnership is important. I think we both agree to that. But there were some objectives that each of the parties really had in mind. And I think this deal structure achieves that.

沒有，我唯一要補充的是，很明顯地，我們在思考這筆交易時，腦中有一些考量，我們也已經把其中一些說明出來。同時，我們的合作夥伴也出於他們自身的目的，希望整合合資企業（JV）的所有權。所以當我們看這個架構時，我認為關係很重要、夥伴關係很重要，我想我們雙方都同意這一點。但各方確實都有各自真正放在心上的一些目標，而我認為這個交易架構能達成那些目標。

Our next question comes from Chris Parkinson from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Chris Parkinson。

A few parts to this. But just when we're taking a step back and looking at forward-looking strip margins, and I understand that a lot has been going on and there's been volatility and you have to kind of roll through the various items through your -- through your inventory.

這個問題有幾個部分。不過當我們退一步、看遠期的即期曲線（strip）利潤率時，我理解最近發生了很多事情、波動也很大，而且你必須把各種項目在你們的——在你們的庫存中逐一消化。

But when I look at your ammonia procurement, you should be getting benefits from Fostina, Tampa over the last month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter, obviously, just natural gas, when I look at sulfur, obviously, you should be trending downwards. And then rock costs, especially in Florida, seem like they're a little stubborn. But when we -- as we progress through the balance of 2024, obviously, some of it should probably subdue our optimism, but it seems like we're very much moving in the right direction. And the prices -- top line prices hold essentially where they are even a bit lower, your profitability should be in a very good position as we progress on a quarterly basis. Could you tell me what I'm missing?

但當我看你們的氨採購，你們應該能從 Fostina、Tampa 在過去一個月的月比、季比中獲得好處；另外很明顯地，天然氣也是如此。再看硫磺，顯然應該呈下降趨勢。然後是礦石成本，尤其在佛羅里達，看起來有點頑固。但當我們——隨著 2024 年剩餘時間推進，當然其中一些因素可能會抑制我們的樂觀，但看起來我們確實正朝正確方向前進。而如果價格——營收端價格大致維持在目前水準、甚至略低，你們的獲利能力在接下來按季度推進時應該會處於非常好的位置。你能告訴我我漏掉了什麼嗎？

No, Chris, thanks for the question. I think you see it very similarly to we -- as we do. The one thing is it does take some time to recognize that flow through inventory on raw materials. And given the heavy turnaround schedule that we have in the first quarter and in the second quarter as well, that's probably a little more delayed than maybe traditionally you may see flow through there, but definitely feeling optimistic on when those raw material flow-throughs do help on stripping margin and will somewhat offset some of the seasonal price pressure, to your point, that we typically see in quarter 2. So we are -- we do see stripping margins throughout the remainder of the year, staying very constructive and strong at kind of decade high numbers.

沒有，Chris，謝謝你的問題。我想你看到的情況跟我們——跟我們的看法非常相似。唯一的一點是，原料在庫存中的流轉需要一些時間才能反映出來。鑑於我們在第一季以及第二季也有很密集的歲修排程，這可能會讓流轉反映的時間比你傳統上看到的更延後一些；但我們確實對這些原料流轉在剝離利潤率（stripping margin）上的助益感到樂觀，並且會在一定程度上抵消你提到的、我們通常在第二季會看到的季節性價格壓力。因此我們——我們確實看到今年剩餘時間的剝離利潤率將維持在非常建設性且強勁的水準，大致處於十年高位的數字。

So I don't think you're missing anything. On the rock side, a little higher in quarter 1, we had a turnaround on one of our large draglines that impacted production on the rock side, but that's transitory. And in the back half of the year and particularly in the second half of the year, rock costs get significantly improved from where they've been over the last two quarters.

所以我不認為你漏掉了什麼。在礦石方面，第一季稍微高一些，是因為我們一台大型拉鏟（dragline）進行歲修，影響了礦石端的產量，但那是暫時性的。到了下半年，特別是下半年的後段，礦石成本會相較過去兩季的水準顯著改善。

Our next question comes from Richard Garchitorena from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Richard Garchitorena。

So I was just wondering if you could talk on the potash market on the 2.2 million to 2.4 million tonnes expected for the second quarter. Is there any way you can break down how much of that is going to be domestic sales versus offshore tonnes? And related to that, on the price guidance, 210 to 250, obviously, that's largely driven by that. What are your assumptions in terms of potential contracts, whether it's India first, China for this year in terms of how you think about that through the rest of the year?

我想請教你們談談鉀肥市場，第二季預期 220 萬到 240 萬噸。你們能否拆分一下其中有多少會是國內銷售、多少是海外噸數？另外，關於價格指引 210 到 250，很明顯主要是由此驅動。你們對潛在合約的假設是什麼？例如今年是先印度、還是中國，關於你們如何看待今年剩餘時間的走勢？

Yes. Thanks, Richard. For sure, we've got thoughts on that, and it will be in quarter 2. I'm going to turn it over to Jenny to get into the details, but a little more of the international export pricing in the mix and then she can talk a little bit about the contract stuff as she's -- and her team are closely watching that and have good thoughts around it. Jenny?

好的，謝謝你，Richard。當然，我們對此有一些想法，而且會反映在第二季。我先把問題交給 Jenny 談細節，不過組合中會有更多國際出口定價的影響；她也可以談談合約方面的事情，因為她——以及她的團隊正密切關注，並且有一些很好的看法。Jenny？

Sure. Thanks, Bruce. Richard, to your question on the sales breakdown between domestic market and offshore shipment. Our full year percentage is around 45% for domestic market and 65% for offshore. Of course, that changes quarter-over-quarter depending on seasonalities.

好的，謝謝，Bruce。Richard，針對你問到的國內市場與海外出貨之間的銷售拆分，我們全年比例大約是國內市場 45%，海外 65%。當然，這會因季節性而在各季之間有所變化。

And also, as you can imagine, it depends on the contract settlement. The major markets like in China and India. Back to your questions on the contract settlement. There has been a lot of report by publications like [CRE agers], talking about the ongoing negotiation in India. And feel like the contract will be settled very soon. And from the report that we learned that the situation in India is really they are going through some kind of administrative approval process among themselves. So we should expect the contract to be settled very soon for India.

另外，如你所想，也取決於合約結算，尤其是中國、印度等主要市場。回到你關於合約結算的問題，像是 [CRE agers] 這類刊物有很多報導，談到印度正在進行的談判。我們覺得合約很快就會敲定。從我們了解的報導來看，印度目前的情況主要是他們內部正在走某種行政核准流程。因此我們應該預期印度的合約會在很短時間內敲定。

To the market itself, India has seen very strong demand increases in the first quarter, supported by very good affordability of potash in the market. With a very low input of potash in Q1, India as a country, they will have to double the input right now in order to meet their major season -- the summer season (inaudible) season for both direct application and also for NPK production. With that reason, we believe the contract is going to be settled very soon. I'm not going to speculate the numbers. So you might have seen a lot of numbers reported by the publication, and we believe that is likely going to be the level, and that's how we modeled our Q2 price forecast as well.

就市場本身而言，印度在第一季看到需求大幅增加，主要受惠於市場上鉀肥的可負擔性非常好。由於第一季鉀肥投入量很低，印度作為一個國家，現在必須把投入量加倍，才能滿足其主要季節——夏季（聽不清）季節——不論是直接施用，或是用於 NPK 生產。基於這個原因，我們相信合約會很快敲定。我不會臆測具體數字。所以你可能看到刊物報導了很多數字，我們認為大概率會在那個水準附近，而我們第二季價格預測的建模也是依此而來。

In terms of the China contract, we believe the contract will be settled in the next month or two as well. If you watch the inventory situation at a port level, there are some higher number reported, but some of the missing parts that I'd like to call out on the port inventory in China, the port inventory level in China has stayed above 3 million tonnes. That has come down over the last few weeks, with a very low input by rail in the northern part of the country because of lacking of a monthly price settlement with the Russians, which is a signal of the price close to the bottom.

至於中國合約，我們也認為會在接下來一到兩個月內敲定。如果你觀察港口層級的庫存情況，確實有一些較高的數字被報導出來，但我想指出中國港口庫存中一些容易被忽略的部分：中國港口庫存水準一直維持在 300 萬噸以上。過去幾週這個數字已經下降，原因是該國北部因為與俄羅斯缺乏月度價格結算，導致鐵路進口量非常低，這是一個價格接近底部的訊號。

The April seaborne import also started to get into the bonded warehouse, which basically meaning that's the end of the 2023 contract execution. Lastly, I wanted to remind you also look into domestic production. The production last year was down by 1 million tonnes. The overall ending inventory at the domestic producer side was down by close 1 million tonnes as well. So when you think about port inventory, you also need to think about the domestic producers' inventory.

4 月的海運進口也開始進入保稅倉庫，這基本上意味著 2023 年合約的執行已接近尾聲。最後，我也想提醒你同時要看國內產量。去年國內產量下降了 100 萬噸；國內生產商端的期末庫存也下降了接近 100 萬噸。因此當你思考港口庫存時，也需要把國內生產商的庫存納入考量。

So adding together, the inventory level isn't as high as people see just from the obvious port inventory. Lastly, I want to mention potash consumption in China last year increased significantly. We believe that the growth was over 20%. Those driven by a relatively low price of potash to phosphate and urea and remind you, 70% of potash consumed in China is through NPK -- compound NPK, therefore, relatively lower price has led to a much higher inclusion of potash consumption.

所以把這些加總起來，庫存水準並不像大家僅從表面港口庫存所看到的那麼高。最後我想提到，中國去年的鉀肥消費顯著增加。我們認為增幅超過 20%。這主要是因為相對於磷肥與尿素，鉀肥價格相對較低；同時也提醒你，中國 70% 的鉀肥消費是透過 NPK——複合 NPK，因此相對較低的價格帶來了鉀肥在配方中更高的添加比例，進而推升消費。

So all in all, we believe that China needs to come back to the table for the new contracts as well. We can't really pin down a time. In our own forecast we have that -- we have that projected to be at a later part of Q2, that price level also reflected in our forecast as well.

總而言之，我們認為中國也需要回到談判桌上簽訂新合約。我們很難精確鎖定時間點。在我們自己的預測中，我們——我們預計會在第二季較後段發生，而該價格水準也已反映在我們的預測之中。

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Adam Samuelson。

Appreciating that there are a lot of moving pieces right now in your U.S. phosphate business between downtime and kind of some of the fire and the like, both in the turnarounds of the dragline and the chemical plant and the ammonia plant, et cetera, have a plan to get production to an annualized rate of about 2 million tonnes by the end of the year.

理解你們美國磷酸鹽業務目前有很多變動因素，包括停機，以及一些火災之類的事件；同時拉鏟、化工廠、氨廠等也在進行歲修。你們是否有一個計畫，能在年底前把產量提升到年化約 200 萬噸的水準？

And I think in the slide, you talk about a $15, $20 a tonne improvement in conversion costs when you get there. What -- how do we think about the benefits beyond just improved conversion costs as we consider kind of a greater proportion of internally produced ammonia, which should be cheaper. If you think about improvements on your rock costs and where those can go from Florida or the need to use a bigger portion of Miski Mayo rock, where -- how long could you see those cost improvements sustain themselves before you start to have to make bigger investments again in new rock reserves in Florida.

我想在投影片裡，你提到當你們達到那個狀態時，轉換成本每噸可改善 15 到 20 美元。那麼——除了轉換成本改善之外，當我們考量內部生產氨的占比提高（理應更便宜）時，我們該如何看待其他效益？如果你談到礦石成本的改善，以及這些改善在佛羅里達的來源或需要使用更大比例的 Miski Mayo 礦石時——你認為這些成本改善在你們又必須再次對佛羅里達新礦石儲量進行更大投資之前，能維持多久？

And put all that into context of how you see Mosaic's Florida phosphate position on the global phosphate cost curve?

另外，請把這些放在你如何看待 Mosaic 佛羅里達磷酸鹽資產在全球磷酸鹽成本曲線上的位置的脈絡中來說明？

Yes, Adam, a lot to unpack there. But for sure, we are working hard, as you have well described, to get to that 2 million-tonne run rate by the end of the year. And as we've said and as you've pointed out, we got pretty significant turnaround schedule still in quarter 2, a little bit into quarter 3.

是的，Adam，這裡面要拆解的內容很多。但可以確定的是，正如你描述得很到位，我們正全力以赴在年底前達到每年 200 萬噸的運轉率。而且如同我們說過、你也指出的，我們在第二季仍有相當密集的歲修排程，並會延續到第三季初。

There's another sulfuric acid turnaround at our Bartow facility in quarter 4. So there is still a lot of work to do to get caught up on all of the pent-up maintenance issues from COVID and some of the hurricanes over the last several years. But feel very good about where we'll be come the end of the year on that run rate. And to your point, and I think in our materials, it's actually $20 to $30 a tonne, not $15 to $20, if I heard you right, improvement just on cost absorption alone. And then on top of that, probably included on the top end of that range is benefits on power generation through better sulfuric acid and steam utilization as well as better water treatment costs as when we're not running hard, we don't have as much evaporative heat for our water balance and then we have to use more expensive options like reverse osmosis and lime treatment to handle our water from a process standpoint.

第四季在我們 Bartow 廠還有一次硫酸裝置的歲修。因此，為了追趕 COVID 期間累積的維修缺口，以及過去幾年幾次颶風造成的影響，仍有很多工作要做。不過，我們對年底能達到該運轉率的狀態非常有信心。就你提到的點，而且我想在我們的資料裡，其實是每噸 20 到 30 美元，而不是 15 到 20（如果我沒聽錯的話），單就成本吸收（cost absorption）而言就有這樣的改善。除此之外，該區間上緣可能也包含透過更佳的硫酸與蒸汽利用來提升自發電效益，以及更好的水處理成本：因為當我們沒有高負荷運轉時，用於水量平衡的蒸發熱不足，就必須採用成本更高的方案，例如逆滲透與石灰處理，來從製程角度處理用水。

So I think those are structural from cost absorption on volume and/or real benefits from just running harder that are sustainable and will continue to fall in line. To your point about rock itself, we've got 30 years of reserves to maybe 40 years of reserves, it's always been -- and I think if you look probably deeply into our 10-K and some of our publications, you'd see that there are -- there is a plan, ultimately, at some point in time, look to build a new greenfield beneficiation plant in our Desoto reserve.

所以我認為，這些來自於產量帶動的成本吸收之結構性效益，以及/或單純因為提高負荷運轉而帶來的實質效益，都是可持續的，並會持續逐步反映。至於你提到的礦石本身，我們有 30 年、甚至可能 40 年的儲量；一直以來——而且我想如果你深入看我們的 10-K 與一些公開資料，你會看到——最終在某個時間點，確實有一個計畫，是在我們的 Desoto 儲量區建置一座新的綠地選礦（beneficiation）廠。

But we're doing everything we can with projects that we've previously announced, such as Eastern extension at South Fort Meade, to buy additional reserves for existing beneficiation plants to extend out that kind of new greenfield horizon for a new mine. So there's also South Pasture which is idle that we can restart. There's a number of things within our reserve base that would allow us to continue to use our integrated rock source to realize those benefits for a long period of time. And then try to push out that large greenfield investment at Desoto as far as possible. Hopefully, that addresses most of the questions.

但我們正在盡一切努力，透過先前已公告的專案（例如 South Fort Meade 的 Eastern extension），為既有選礦廠取得更多可用儲量，以延後那種需要新建綠地礦山/選礦廠的時間點。此外，還有目前閒置的 South Pasture 可以重啟。我們的儲量基礎中有多項選項，能讓我們在很長一段時間內持續使用整合式自有礦源來實現這些效益，並盡可能把 Desoto 的大型綠地投資往後推。希望這回答了大部分問題。

Our next question comes from Ben Theurer from Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Ben Theurer。

Just wanted to kind of follow up on some of the global dynamics and what you're seeing in terms of just the global supply and how you think some of the proposed changes to tariffs and duties into the U.S., Russia down, Morocco up again. So it seems like that authorities don't know what they do because they just changed it the other way around a few months ago. How do you feel about this just in general? And what are like consumers actually demanding and asking for? And where do -- where does Mosaic fit into that equation?

我想追問一下全球動態，以及你們看到的全球供給情況，還有你們如何看待美國進口關稅與反傾銷/反補貼稅（duties）一些擬議變動：俄羅斯下調、摩洛哥又上調。看起來主管機關也不知道自己在做什麼，因為幾個月前才剛往相反方向調整。你整體上怎麼看？消費者實際上在要求、在尋求的是什麼？而 Mosaic 在這個方程式裡的位置又是什麼？

Yes. To confirm, the Department of Commerce did as part of their process due to their preliminary ruling from an annual review standpoint, this would be on 2022 duties, so going back in time. And what were their interpretations of subsidies or things that were done in those jurisdictions, namely Morocco and PhosAgro in Russia. And yes, the preliminary numbers went up on one then went down on the other. The other complication in this process is there's appeals that are still outstanding waiting for rulings on. And then the annual review and new duties for what was just announced don't get finalized until November of this year. So I think to your point, there is a lot of volatility, uncertainty around where some of these duties lie.

是的。先確認一下：商務部在其程序中，基於年度複審的初步裁定，這次是針對 2022 年的稅率，也就是回溯過去。他們對那些司法管轄區（主要是摩洛哥以及俄羅斯的 PhosAgro）補貼或相關作為的認定與解讀，導致初步數字在一方上調、另一方下調。這個程序的另一個複雜點是，仍有一些上訴案尚未裁決等待結果。此外，這次剛宣布的年度複審與新稅率要到今年 11 月才會定案。所以如你所說，這些稅率落點存在很大的波動與不確定性。

Our customers, I think, have gotten used to that in North America. We're here and our heavy focus is on supplying North America first with our production and market share over 50% where we like to be and continue to be here for our domestic customers. But we're also saying no hesitation to bring in more imports from a more diverse set of importers. And I think at the end, what that means is a healthier industry for U.S. fertilizer but also healthier competition for the U.S. farmer.

我認為我們的客戶在北美已經習慣這種情況。我們在這裡，而且我們的重點是優先以自身產量供應北美，並把市占率維持在我們希望的 50% 以上，持續服務國內客戶。同時我們也在說，我們不排斥從更多元的進口來源引進更多進口量。我想最終這代表的是：對美國肥料產業更健康，同時也為美國農民帶來更健康的競爭。

So I think the duties from our perspective, have worked as intended. They are leveling the playing field and eliminating unfair subsidies that were quite honestly, and proven again with the International Trade Commission earlier this year, were causing injury to the industry. So we're supportive of the process. We know that, obviously, it's got some uncertainty around it. But I do believe the U.S. farmers have adapted to that and it's just modifying trade flows and bringing more competition and a more diverse slate of importers here in North America.

因此從我們的角度看，這些稅率確實達到了原本的目的：它們在拉平競爭環境、消除不公平補貼。坦白說，這些不公平補貼——而且今年稍早國際貿易委員會（International Trade Commission）也再次證實——確實對產業造成了傷害。所以我們支持這個程序。我們也知道，顯然其中仍有一些不確定性。但我確實相信美國農民已經適應了這種情況；它只是改變了貿易流向，並在北美引入更多競爭與更多元的進口來源組合。

Our next question comes from Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong。

So just going back to Ma'aden, it's been mentioned a few times now that the deal was done in part to bring more transparency on the value of your investment. So I'm just kind of curious how you feel about the valuation now. Like I understand it's a market value. But the valuation also seems kind of high relative to some of their peers like yourselves and the ability to realize that value and maybe depends on liquidity. So how should we -- and how do you view that $1.5 billion valuation today?

回到 Ma'aden，現在已經被提到好幾次，這筆交易部分原因是為了讓你們投資價值更透明。所以我想問你們現在對估值的感受如何。我理解那是市場價值，但相對於一些同業（例如你們自己），這個估值看起來也偏高；而且能否實現該價值可能也取決於流動性。我們應該如何看待——你們又如何看待今天這個 15 億美元的估值？

Andrew, good question. Something we've been talking about, obviously, a lot as we entered into this deal. And I'm just going to turn it over to Clint because he's -- he's got some good thoughts around this topic.

Andrew，問得好。這也是我們在進入這筆交易時一直在討論的議題。我先把問題交給 Clint，因為他——他對這個主題有一些很好的看法。

Yes. Thanks, Bruce, and thanks, Andrew, for the question. A couple of different thoughts on this. One is -- as we looked at the value of our JV interest, we look at it as you traditionally would through DCF means and other means and we feel like that the call it, $1.5 billion valuation is a very fair valuation that we found attractive and obviously agreed at that kind of level with our counterparty.

是的。謝謝你，Bruce，也謝謝你，Andrew，提出這個問題。我有幾個不同的想法。第一個是——當我們評估我們在合資公司（JV）的權益價值時，我們用的是你通常會用的方法，例如以 DCF（折現現金流）等方式來看；我們認為所謂 15 億美元的估值是非常公平的估值，我們覺得很有吸引力，並且也很明確是在這個水準上與交易對手達成一致。

I think as we look at the shares themselves, as we took a look at the consideration that we were receiving, given that, I think we would expect this transaction to close by the end of this year, 2024. As we look at consensus estimates -- and Ma'aden is a pretty well-covered company, as we look at consensus estimates for 2025 and '26, and we look at what does that translate into from a multiple standpoint.

我想當我們看這些股票本身、也就是我們將收到的對價時，考量到我們預期這筆交易會在今年底、也就是 2024 年底完成交割。當我們看市場一致預估——Ma'aden 是一家覆蓋度相當高的公司——我們看 2025 與 2026 年的一致預估，並進一步看這換算成估值倍數會是什麼。

What we see is that, that implied multiple is very consistent with how they've traded historically, and I think maybe quite a bit down from a multiple standpoint from maybe what was noted in 2023. So as we look at forward into the time of our ownership, '25, '26 we see a multiple being applied to valuation, very consistent with past history over several years. As you also noted, I think they have historically traded at a premium multiple to peers. I think there are a number of different reasons for that. But again, as we did our assessment looking forward into our period of ownership, that relative multiple compared to peers, again, very consistent with history.

我們看到的是：該隱含倍數與其歷史交易水準非常一致，而且從倍數角度看，可能也比 2023 年所觀察到的水準低不少。因此，當我們往前看至我們持有期間的 2025、2026 年，我們看到用於估值的倍數與過去數年的歷史非常一致。正如你也提到的，他們歷來的交易倍數相對同業有溢價。我認為原因有很多。但同樣地，當我們做評估、往前看我們持有期間時，這個相對於同業的倍數水準也仍然與歷史一致。

And so -- and didn't seem elevated relative to history. So I think as we look at the valuation itself, for our share of the joint venture. Obviously, we've noted that it's 2x our initial investment. And again, we feel like it's a very appropriate and fair valuation. And then as we look at taking stock back in Ma'aden and again, look at some of the associated valuation metrics, again, they seem very much in line as we look into '25 and '26, very much in line with how they've traded in the past. So I think given those factors, that's how we got to a comfort level with the type of structure that we've agreed to.

因此——看起來並沒有相對於歷史被高估。所以我想，當我們看估值本身、也就是我們在合資公司那一份的價值時，顯然我們也提過那是我們初始投資的 2 倍；我們同樣認為這是非常適當且公平的估值。接著，當我們看拿回 Ma'aden 的股票，並再看一些相關的估值指標，當我們看向 2025 與 2026 年，它們也非常符合其過去的交易水準。因此，綜合這些因素，這就是我們如何對所同意的結構建立起信心。

Our next question comes from Josh Spector from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Josh Spector。

Just another quick one on Ma'aden. Just I was trying to think about the cost side of things. So as you convert to an equity holder versus an operator share in that JV, what's the impact on free cash flow and EBITDA over the last 12 months and you talked about some offtake agreements. Does any of that change and that you're paying market versus costs, so just the moving parts there, please?

再快速問一個關於 Ma'aden 的問題。我在思考成本端的影響。當你們在該合資企業中從營運方持股轉為股權持有人時，對過去 12 個月的自由現金流與 EBITDA 有何影響？另外你們提到一些承購（offtake）協議。這些是否會有任何變動？你們是按市場價格支付還是按成本支付？請說明其中的變動因素，謝謝。

Yes. Thanks, Josh. As far as the supply agreement, I think it's just -- we have the option to look at that if we needed for key markets so addressing your latter part of your question. And those things would be -- to be negotiated, but we have that optionality. As far as the first part of your question, maybe I'll turn it back over to Clint and give your thoughts around the EBITDA.

是的，謝謝你，Josh。就供應協議而言，我認為只是——如果我們在關鍵市場有需要，我們可以選擇檢視該安排，以回應你問題的後半段。這些事項將——需要再行協商，但我們保有這種彈性。至於你問題的前半段，也許我把問題交回給 Clint，請他談談對 EBITDA 的看法。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Josh. I think it will -- for Mosaic, I think it will have very minimal impact on EBITDA and free cash flow. Historically, we have only included cash dividends in our EBITDA numbers. We obviously have equity earnings that are included on our financial statements. I think in 2023, those equity earnings pretax were $57 million. I think the cash distributions. Last year, we received $25 million, I believe, in the first quarter of this year, we received $15 million.

是的，謝謝你的問題，Josh。我認為——對 Mosaic 而言，對 EBITDA 與自由現金流的影響將非常有限。過去我們在 EBITDA 數字中只納入現金股利。我們當然也有列入財報的權益法收益。我想在 2023 年，這些權益法收益（稅前）為 5,700 萬美元。我想現金分配方面，去年我們收到 2,500 萬美元；我記得在今年第一季我們收到 1,500 萬美元。

And so that's what would be included in our EBITDA and free cash flow. So I think as we look forward, I think there really is minimal, if any, longer-term impact or consequences to our EBITDA and free cash flow.

因此，納入我們 EBITDA 與自由現金流的就是這些。我認為展望未來，對我們的 EBITDA 與自由現金流，長期而言幾乎沒有影響或後果（即便有也非常小）。

And our next question comes from Charles Neivert from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Charles Neivert。

Just a couple of things. One, in the turnaround -- and I'll just ask them all at the same time and you can just answer whatever. Turnarounds coming up, does they -- I know they improve efficiency, there -- they have to be done. But is there any consequent like increase in supply? I know it's not a chemical operation, so you don't necessarily get that, but would there be any supply increase on the turnaround?

有幾點。第一，關於檢修（turnaround）——我就一次把問題都問完，你們可以挑要回答的。即將到來的檢修，我知道它們能提升效率、也必須做。但是否會帶來任何後續影響，例如供應量增加？我知道這不是化工製程，所以不一定會有那種效果，但檢修後供應量會增加嗎？

Second, during the outages that you guys had, do you think the outage had an influence on price upward and therefore, now when everything is running, now it takes away whatever influence it pushed up. And lastly, on Ma'aden, do you -- does the shareholding from the joint -- versus the joint venture operation, does that change your, for lack of a better term, influence on the company into what they do? And do they have any plans for later for expansion coming up or are they putting forward at this point?

第二，在你們發生停機（outages）的期間，你們認為停機是否對價格上行有影響？因此現在一切恢復運轉後，就會消除先前推升價格的影響？最後，關於 Ma'aden，你們從合資營運方持股轉為股東持股，是否會改變你們（姑且這麼說）對該公司的影響力、以及他們的作為？他們未來是否有擴產計畫，還是目前正在推進中？

Thanks, Charles. Let me start with the latter because I didn't write it down as fresh in my mind. So I don't think the deal structure changes are influenced really a whole lot. We've been a technical kind of adviser in that and a minority partner so I don't think that's going to change a whole lot. The deal, they still want Mosaic as technical input and Mosaic Resources as part of this, where we can participate and help them. And then you're going to have to talk to them about what their future plans are as far as expansion. I know there's been stuff that they've talked about in the press. And obviously, as a shareholder, we're going to be interested in them maximizing their shareholder value. But I don't think our influence is going to be much different than what it's been in the past, nor should you expect anything of significance there. Turnarounds, they are a necessity. And the ones that were the primary focus has been for us, although it's on a lot of our assets, but the primary one where we struggled over the last few years is on sulfuric acid.

謝謝你，Charles。我先從最後一題開始，因為我沒記下來、腦中也比較不新鮮。我不認為交易結構的變更會造成太大影響。我們一直是技術顧問性質、也是少數股權夥伴，所以我不認為這會有太大改變。這筆交易下，他們仍希望 Mosaic 提供技術投入，也希望 Mosaic Resources 參與其中，讓我們能夠參與並協助他們。至於他們未來的擴產計畫，你得跟他們談。我知道他們在媒體上談過一些內容。顯然，作為股東，我們會關注他們如何最大化股東價值。但我不認為我們的影響力會與過去有很大不同，你也不應預期會有任何重大變化。檢修是必要的。而我們主要聚焦的檢修——雖然我們很多資產都有檢修——但過去幾年我們最吃力的主要是在硫酸。

And our sulfuric acid plants, we've got dozen or more of those globally, there are basically a 3-year turnaround. And if you don't do a major turnaround on a 3-year schedule, you run the risk of losing reliability. And those cascade through, we need the steam that is generated at sulfuric acid as an exothermic process to evaporate the lower concentrated phosphoric acid that's made to feed that into granulation and make granulated fertilizer. But also, we use that excess steam for generating power through our cogeneration facilities, which are much cheaper than buying power from the utility. But I think to your question was has our drop in production actually helped on pricing. Well, I don't think it's enough to have influence that.

我們的硫酸廠在全球有十幾座或更多，基本上是每 3 年一次大檢修。如果不按 3 年週期做重大檢修，就有失去可靠性的風險。這會產生連鎖效應：硫酸製程是放熱反應，會產生蒸汽；我們需要這些蒸汽來蒸發較低濃度的磷酸，將其濃縮後送入造粒（granulation）製程，製成粒狀肥料。此外，我們也利用多餘蒸汽透過熱電共生（cogeneration）設施發電，成本遠低於向公用事業購電。但我想你問的是，我們產量下滑是否實際上有助於價格。我不認為我們的影響力足以左右價格。

And I don't think that us getting back to our historical run rate of 8 million tonnes would be enough to influence that significantly as well, given where we are with our growth in phosphate demand and that there is limited supply, I think this market stays pretty tight. And our tonnes are going to be needed to keep even level on the tightness of that. And then lastly was something on price -- what's that? I covered it already? Okay.

而且我也不認為我們回到歷史運轉水準的 800 萬噸，會足以對價格造成顯著影響；考量磷酸鹽需求的成長，以及供給有限，我認為市場仍會相當吃緊。我們的產量將是維持這種緊俏程度所需要的。最後你還問了價格的——是什麼？我已經回答了嗎？好。

Maybe I covered it, Charles. I did my best to hit those 3, and I appreciate you giving me some flexibility with that. So with that...

也許我已經回答了，Charles。我盡力涵蓋那三點，也謝謝你給我一些彈性。所以，接下來……

We do have an additional question from Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho.

我們還有一個問題，來自瑞穗（Mizuho）的 Edlain Rodriguez。

Just a quick one on earlier comment during the prepared remarks. You talked about fertilizers being well positioned for higher prices in the second half as demand recovers -- and along with Jenny's comments on the potash contracts, would you be highly disappointed if those contracts don't reflect that view?

就先前在管理層預備發言中的一段評論，快速問一下。你提到隨著需求復甦，下半年肥料在更高價格方面具備良好定位——再加上 Jenny 對鉀肥合約的評論，如果那些合約沒有反映這個觀點，你們會非常失望嗎？

I think we'd be surprised, based on what we believe about the supply and demand and what's needed in the marketplace. But I'll turn it over to Jenny and see if he's got any more since she addressed that original question.

我想基於我們對供需、以及市場需要什麼的判斷，我們會感到意外。不過我把問題交給 Jenny，看看她是否還有補充，因為她已經回答了原本的問題。

Yes, we have -- thanks for the question. We have our own estimation based on the fundamentals. And also, we are watching the latest negotiation, especially in India. So I would say the price -- contract price are likely going to be settled is already included in our price forecast.

是的，謝謝你的問題。我們基於基本面有自己的估算。同時我們也在關注最新的談判進展，特別是在印度。因此我會說，合約價格最終可能落定的水準，已經包含在我們的價格預測之中。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be concluding today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

各位女士、先生，至此我們將結束今天的問答環節。我想把時間交回管理層，請他們做任何結語。

Well, thank you, operator. To conclude our call, I'd like to emphasize our key points. First, our transaction with Ma'aden will benefit our shareholders by establishing a transparent value for our investment and providing us with greater capital flexibility for the long term. Second, we are making good progress on our strategic initiatives. We're investing in our best performing assets while reducing costs and capital expenditures.

好的，謝謝你，主持人。為本次電話會議作結，我想強調幾個重點。第一，我們與 Ma'aden 的交易將透過為我們的投資建立透明的價值，並為我們提供更大的長期資本彈性，從而使股東受益。第二，我們在策略性計畫上取得良好進展。我們在表現最佳的資產上加大投資，同時降低成本與資本支出。

And finally, fertilizer market fundamentals remain constructive, and we expect continuing strong demand through this year. To summarize, Mosaic is generating solid results in dynamic conditions, and we're working to deliver strong shareholder value. So thanks for joining us today, and everyone, have a good and safe day.

最後，肥料市場基本面仍然正向，我們預期今年需求將持續強勁。總結來說，Mosaic 在多變的環境下仍創造穩健成果，我們也正努力為股東帶來強勁價值。感謝各位今天加入我們，祝大家有個美好且平安的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

各位女士、先生，至此我們將結束今天的電話會議與簡報。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。