美盛公司 (MOS) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) And this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2026 會計年度第三季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）本次會議將進行錄音。（接線員指示）

And now I'll turn it over to Luciano Siani Pires, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

現在我將把電話交給執行副總裁兼財務長 Luciano Siani Pires。

Thank you, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, Chief Executive Officer. We will then welcome Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial to join Bruce and myself as we open the floor to questions.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2026 會計年度第三季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由執行長 Bruce Bodine 提供。接著，我們將邀請商務執行副總裁 Jenny Wang 與 Bruce 及我一同加入，並開放提問。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理階層截至今日的信念與預期，並可能受到重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday afternoon, and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日下午發布的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的報告中。

Please note, in today's presentation and in our press release and performance data, we will refer to and provide various financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share, free cash flow, cost per ton and adjusted effective tax rate, either on a total company or segment basis. Unless we specifically state otherwise, statements regarding these measures refer to our adjusted non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to our most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release.

請注意，在今日簡報以及我們的新聞稿與績效資料中，我們將提及並提供多項財務衡量指標，包括調整後 EBITDA、調整後每股盈餘、自由現金流、每噸成本與調整後有效稅率，並可能以公司整體或事業部門為基礎呈現。除非我們另有明確說明，關於這些指標的陳述均指我們經調整的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。上述指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標之調節表，可於我們的財報新聞稿中查閱。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Bruce.

現在我想把電話交給 Bruce。

Good morning and thank you for joining our call. Our message to investors remains unchanged. Mosaic is navigating a difficult phosphate market by managing all that is within our control. I've lived through many cycles over my 30-year career in the industry. And while certain aspects of today's environment seem unprecedented, one important constant to remember is that markets bounce back.

早安，感謝各位加入本次電話會議。我們對投資人的訊息維持不變。美盛正透過管理所有我們可控的事項，來因應艱困的磷酸鹽市場。在我 30 年的產業生涯中，我經歷過許多景氣循環。雖然當前環境的某些面向看似前所未見，但有一個重要的不變事實是：市場終將反彈。

The strongest companies are built to withstand markets like this by taking decisive actions, preserving financial flexibility, and positioning themselves to benefit as conditions improve. Allow me to summarize a few of the (technical difficulty) we've taken.

最強的公司之所以能建立起來，是因為能在這樣的市場中採取果斷行動、維持財務彈性，並在環境改善時做好受益的布局。請容我概述我們已採取的幾項（技術問題）措施。

We temporarily adjusted our phosphate production across our portfolio to match the availability of affordable sulfur. This includes curtailments at Bartow, Louisiana and in Brazil. We've also idled mining at South Fort Meade and Miski Mayo to reduce unnecessary buildup of rock inventory, preserve cash, and better align mining activity with current production levels.

我們已在整體資產組合中暫時調整磷酸鹽產量，以符合可負擔硫磺的供應情況。這包括在 Bartow、路易斯安那州以及巴西的減產措施。我們也已讓 South Fort Meade 與 Miski Mayo 的採礦作業暫停，以降低不必要的磷礦石庫存累積、保留現金，並使採礦活動與目前生產水準更一致。

For the production that remains online, our strategic relationships with US Gulf Coast refiners continue to provide an important sulfur sourcing advantage. For the fourth quarter, we've secured supply at $615 per ton. We're continuing to review spending across the enterprise. We've reduced corporate SG&A significantly and expect 2027 SG&A to be below $500 million.

對於仍維持運轉的產能，我們與美國墨西哥灣沿岸煉油商的策略性合作關係，持續提供重要的硫磺採購優勢。就第四季而言，我們已以每噸 615 美元的價格鎖定供應。我們也持續檢視全公司的支出。我們已大幅降低公司層級的銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A），並預期 2027 年 SG&A 將低於 5 億美元。

We're also continuing to optimize our capital budget, and now target 2027 CapEx of below $1 billion, $200 million lower than where we expect to finish 2026. We're continuing to pursue several portfolio actions to improve capital efficiency, strengthen financial flexibility, and invest in the opportunities that offer the greatest strategic value. This includes completion of Canadian land sales last month netting $36 million, advancing the sale process of Airshow in Brazil, and evaluating other non-core assets.

我們也持續優化資本預算，現將 2027 年資本支出（CapEx）目標下調至低於 10 億美元，較我們預期 2026 年結束時的水準低 2 億美元。我們持續推動多項資產組合行動，以提升資本效率、強化財務彈性，並投資於具最高策略價值的機會。其中包括上月完成加拿大土地出售，淨得 3,600 萬美元；推進巴西 Airshow 的出售流程；以及評估其他非核心資產。

Finally, we've taken important steps to maintain the strength of our balance sheet. In early August, we refinanced and extended all long-term debt maturities that were previously due in 2027 and 2028. We have no long-term obligations over the next two years and access to liquidity remains available should we need it.

最後，我們也採取重要措施以維持資產負債表的穩健。在 8 月初，我們完成再融資並展延原本於 2027 年與 2028 年到期的所有長期債務到期日。未來兩年我們沒有長期到期義務，且如有需要，我們仍可取得流動性資源。

Together, these actions ensure a strong foundation for any market, and we're already seeing results. Even with production curtailments in the US and Brazil, we expect to generate positive free cash flow in the second half of this year.

綜合上述行動，為任何市場環境奠定了堅實基礎，而且我們已經看到成效。即使美國與巴西進行減產，我們仍預期在今年下半年產生正向自由現金流。

Before going deeper into the business, I'd like to address broader markets. Long-term agricultural fundamentals remain favorable and near-term dynamics in our key markets are also starting to improve. After two years of under application and now unfavorable weather, yield impacts are becoming more visible around the world. At the same time, grain and oilseed prices have risen from their lows earlier in the year, which is supportive of better farm economics and nutrient affordability.

在更深入討論業務之前，我想先談談更廣泛的市場情況。長期農業基本面仍然有利，而我們主要市場的短期動態也開始改善。在連續兩年施用不足、加上近期不利天候之後，全球各地的產量影響正變得更加明顯。同時，穀物與油籽價格已自年初低點回升，有助於改善農場經濟與養分（肥料）可負擔性。

Better nutrient affordability is coming at an important moment. Yield impacts in Brazil have become quite pronounced and growers in North America have likely exhausted most residual soil nutrients. Under application cannot go on indefinitely and growers understand that.

養分可負擔性的改善出現在一個關鍵時點。巴西的產量影響已相當明顯，而北美種植戶很可能已耗盡大部分土壤殘留養分。施用不足不可能無限期持續，種植戶也明白這一點。

Phosphate supply remains constrained with sulfur availability and affordability continuing to limit production and margins across the industry. For those still producing, spot sulfur prices are resulting in unsustainably low stripping margins. Fortunately, we're starting to see some improvement in prices, which is driving incremental production, but current economics remain insufficient for meaningful recovery in global supply.

由於硫磺供應的可得性與可負擔性持續限制全產業的產量與利潤，磷酸鹽供給仍然受限。對於仍在生產的業者而言，現貨硫磺價格導致剝採利差（stripping margins）低到難以持續。所幸我們開始看到價格略有改善，帶動部分增量生產，但目前的經濟條件仍不足以支撐全球供給出現有意義的復甦。

Some producers in Asia have begun exploring non-traditional sources of sulfur, including reclamation from gypstacks and the restart of long dormant sulfur mines. These are longer-term solutions that could provide the industry with additional raw material supply options over time.

亞洲部分生產商已開始探索非傳統硫磺來源，包括自磷石膏堆（gypstacks）回收，以及重啟長期停產的硫磺礦。這些屬於較長期的解決方案，隨時間推進可望為產業提供更多原料供應選項。

In the near term, however, global phosphate shipments are expected to be down approximately 20 million tons from last year, and we expect this trend to carry over into 2027. Despite limited supply, we're seeing some indications of improving phosphate demand in our key markets.

然而在短期內，全球磷酸鹽出貨量預期將較去年減少約 2,000 萬噸，我們也預期此趨勢將延續至 2027 年。儘管供給有限，我們在主要市場仍看到一些磷酸鹽需求改善的跡象。

North America's net max moved higher toward the end of third quarter after lagging other regions for much of the year. Customer engagement has continued to improve in the fourth quarter ahead of fall application and winter fill in North America, and our tons are largely committed.

北美的淨回補（net max）在第三季末走高，此前一年大部分時間落後於其他地區。進入第四季，北美秋季施用與冬季補庫之前，客戶互動持續改善，我們的出貨量大多已承諾（鎖定）。

In Brazil, fertilizer inventories are low, particularly for phosphate. While it's still too early to call it a recovery, we are seeing green shoots emerge as appetite returns. Higher soybean prices supported stronger demand during the third quarter and farm economics in Metagrosso in the third quarter were at their highest level in the last three years.

在巴西，肥料庫存偏低，尤其是磷酸鹽。雖然現在仍言之過早、尚不足以稱為復甦，但我們確實看到需求意願回升的初步跡象。較高的大豆價格支撐第三季需求走強，而馬托格羅索州（Mato Grosso）第三季的農場經濟狀況達到過去三年最高水準。

Customer credit remains constrained, and we continue to be selective in extending credit, but improving farm economics and low inventories provide a more constructive backdrop for demand in 2027. In India, phosphate imports have been robust for most of the year. While purchasing has slowed seasonally in recent weeks, additional import demand is expected through year-end.

客戶信貸仍然受限，我們在提供授信方面仍保持選擇性；但農場經濟改善與低庫存，為 2027 年需求提供更具建設性的背景。在印度，磷酸鹽進口在今年大部分時間都相當強勁。雖然近幾週採購因季節性因素放緩，但預期年底前仍將出現額外的進口需求。

The global potash market continues to be constructive with strong demand driven by good value and inventory replenishment. China continues to be an important source of demand as it supports domestic consumption and continues to build strategic reserve. Against this backdrop, negotiations for the 2027 contract have already begun earlier than in prior years.

全球鉀肥市場持續呈現建設性態勢，在良好性價比與補庫需求帶動下，需求強勁。中國仍是重要的需求來源，因其支持國內消費並持續建立戰略儲備。在此背景下，2027 年合約談判已較往年更早展開。

On the supply side, logistic constraints in Russia and Belarus have disrupted roughly 1.5 million tons of potash shipments from the Baltic Sea in the fourth quarter. Overall, we see a constructive potash supply and demand picture.

在供給端，俄羅斯與白俄羅斯的物流限制已在第四季自波羅的海中斷約150萬噸的鉀肥出貨。整體而言，我們認為鉀肥供需格局仍具建設性。

Turning to our business. I will start with phosphate. As previously announced, we curtail production at Bartow and Louisiana to align with the affordable sulfur available to us through our US Gulf supply agreements. In the third quarter, our realized sulfur price of $715 was well below the market average of $1,100 per ton.

接著談談我們的業務。我先從磷肥開始。如先前所宣布，我們在Bartow與Louisiana縮減產量，以配合我們透過美國墨西哥灣供應協議所能取得的可負擔硫磺供應。第三季，我們實現的硫磺價格為每噸715美元，明顯低於市場平均每噸1,100美元。

Looking ahead, our fourth quarter contract was recently signed at $615 per ton, once again below current market price. Though volumes at that price are not enough to run our US assets fully, and while spot prices have begun to move lower, they're still not low enough to restart curtailed production.

展望未來，我們第四季合約最近以每噸615美元簽訂，再次低於目前市場價格。雖然以該價格取得的供應量不足以讓我們的美國資產滿載運轉，且即期價格已開始走低，但仍未低到足以重啟先前縮減的產量。

In the meantime, we're focused on meeting our customers' needs as best we can, while optimizing netbacks and managing inventory responsibly. For this reason, we began curtailing operations at South Fort Meade and Miski Mayo to avoid building unnecessary rock inventory while concentrate plants are running below rate.

同時，我們專注於在力所能及的範圍內滿足客戶需求，並在最佳化淨回收（netbacks）的同時，負責任地管理庫存。因此，當濃縮廠以低於額定產能運轉時，我們開始縮減South Fort Meade與Miski Mayo的營運，以避免累積不必要的磷礦石庫存。

Despite lower operating rates, we've begun seeing improvements in our production costs. Cash cost of conversion per ton saw a meaningful sequential decline reflecting, in part, the idling of phosphate production in Louisiana, which is our highest conversion cost facility, and we expect these improvements to continue in the fourth quarter.

儘管營運稼動率較低，我們已開始看到生產成本的改善。每噸轉換現金成本較前一季顯著下降，部分反映Louisiana磷肥產線停工（該廠為我們轉換成本最高的設施），我們預期這些改善將在第四季持續。

Looking ahead, our lower sulfur contract price settlement will have an immediate benefit to fourth quarter cash flows, while the benefit to earnings will take longer as higher cost inventory moves through the system. Because of the volatility, we've again decided to provide some guidance on raw material costs for the fourth quarter.

展望未來，較低的硫磺合約結算價格將立即有利於第四季現金流；但對獲利的助益會較慢顯現，因為較高成本的庫存仍需在系統中逐步消化。鑑於波動性，我們再次決定提供第四季原物料成本的部分指引。

For sulfur, we expect realized prices and cost of goods sold to be in the range of $800 to $850 per ton. For ammonia, we expect cost to be in the range of $590 to $610 per ton, and this will result in realized stripping margins in the mid-300s per ton. As lower cost raw materials flow through inventory and our cost actions gain traction, we expect the underlying economics of the phosphate business to improve as we move into 2027.

就硫磺而言，我們預期實現價格與銷貨成本將落在每噸800至850美元區間。就氨而言，我們預期成本將落在每噸590至610美元區間，這將使實現的剝離利差（stripping margins）約在每噸300多美元的中段水準。隨著較低成本原料逐步反映於庫存，以及我們的成本措施發揮效果，我們預期磷肥業務的基本經濟性將在邁入2027年時改善。

Potash continues to be a strong performer and an important cash generator. Third quarter cash cost of production declined $11 per ton sequentially as the production shifted toward lower-cost Esterhazy volumes. During the quarter, production at Esterhazy was affected by lower ore grades associated with geology in the current mining area. This is temporary, and we anticipate the ore grades to improve as we continue mining. We continue to target annual potash production of more than 9 million tons over the longer term.

鉀肥仍是強勁的表現者，也是重要的現金創造來源。第三季生產現金成本較前一季每噸下降11美元，因產量結構轉向成本較低的Esterhazy產量。本季Esterhazy的產量受到目前採礦區地質因素導致礦石品位較低的影響。這是暫時性的，我們預期隨著持續開採，礦石品位將改善。長期而言，我們仍以年度鉀肥產量超過900萬噸為目標。

In Mosaic fertilizantes, third quarter results reflected a full quarter of production curtailments across most of the business, while higher-margin animal feed production continued. Distribution margins were within our normalized annual target range of $30 to $40 per ton, supported by normal seasonality and commercial execution. We also made meaningful progress reducing finished goods inventory during the quarter and collections associated with stronger third quarter sales are expected to support cash generation in the fourth quarter.

在Mosaic Fertilizantes，第三季結果反映了業務大部分範圍內整季的減產措施，同時高毛利的動物飼料生產仍持續進行。在正常季節性與商業執行的支撐下，通路利潤落在我們常態化年度目標區間每噸30至40美元。我們也在本季於降低成品庫存方面取得顯著進展，而與第三季較強銷售相關的回款，預期將支撐第四季的現金創造。

Mosaic Biosciences continues to deliver strong growth. Year-to-date, net sales have more than doubled year-over-year, and we remain on track to generate nearly $135 million in 2026. We expect to launch a total of 8- to 10 new products this year and deliver positive EBITDA, a strong step toward our goal of generating $200 million of EBITDA from the business by 2030.

Mosaic Biosciences持續交出強勁成長。年初至今，淨銷售額較去年同期已增加一倍以上，我們仍按計畫在2026年創造接近1.35億美元的營收。我們預期今年將推出合計8到10項新產品，並實現正向EBITDA，這是朝2030年該業務貢獻2億美元EBITDA目標邁進的重要一步。

Finally, I'd like to spend a moment on our recent cost reduction actions and strategic capital allocation priorities. We are taking more aggressive actions to align our cost structure with current operating conditions. These decisions have been difficult, but they're necessary to position the business for long-term success. These actions include removing fixed costs from idle and underutilized operations, reducing SG&A, and concentrating resources on the areas that create the greatest long-term value.

最後，我想花點時間談談我們近期的降本行動與策略性資本配置優先事項。我們正採取更積極的行動，使成本結構與目前的營運狀況一致。這些決策很艱難，但對於讓業務具備長期成功的定位是必要的。這些行動包括：自停工與產能利用不足的營運中移除固定成本、降低SG&A，並將資源集中於能創造最大長期價值的領域。

We expect 2026 SG&A to be $510 million to $530 million, but our cost reduction initiatives suggest 2027 SG&A to be below $500 million. Capital spending remains an important lever. We have reduced our 2026 capital expectations over the course of the year and sharpened our focus on maintenance, reliability and high-return projects. Based on our current plans, we are targeting below $1 billion of capital expenditures in 2027, roughly $200 million below where we expect to finish 2026.

我們預期2026年SG&A為5.10億至5.30億美元，但我們的降本計畫顯示2027年SG&A可望低於5億美元。資本支出仍是重要的調節槓桿。今年以來，我們已下修2026年資本支出預期，並更聚焦於維護、可靠度與高報酬專案。依據目前規劃，我們目標在2027年將資本支出控制在10億美元以下，約比我們預期2026年結束時的水準低2億美元。

We remain focused on optimizing our portfolio of assets. Over the last few years, we've divested non-core assets that have allowed us to shift resources to better returning opportunities. This effort continues. One example is the divestiture of our Araxa asset in Brazil, a process we expect to complete over the next several months. We're also pursuing additional land sales in Canada and in Florida.

我們仍專注於最佳化資產組合。過去幾年，我們已出售非核心資產，使我們能將資源轉向報酬更佳的機會。這項工作仍在持續。其中一個例子是出售我們在巴西的Araxa資產，我們預期在未來幾個月內完成該流程。我們也在加拿大與佛羅里達推進額外的土地出售。

This year, we've signed deals for $67 million, and we expect additional transactions over the next 12 months. And we're continuing to explore additional divestitures of non-core and underutilized assets that will further ease our CapEx burden and enable us to focus our resources on our opportunities.

今年我們已簽署總額6,700萬美元的交易，並預期未來12個月內還會有更多交易。同時，我們也持續評估進一步處分非核心與產能利用不足的資產，以進一步減輕我們的資本支出負擔，並使我們能將資源聚焦於自身的機會。

Let me close with this. The environment remains challenging, but we are acting decisively and seeing increasingly constructive signals across our markets. These actions have strengthened our underlying business and have positioned us to generate strong cash flow and returns as markets normalize.

讓我以這點作結。環境仍具挑戰，但我們正果斷採取行動，並在各市場看到愈來愈多正向、具建設性的訊號。這些行動已強化我們的基本業務，並使我們在市場回歸常態時，具備創造強勁現金流與報酬的定位。

With that, we'll open the call for questions.

接下來，我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Christopher Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

Christopher Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

You've spoken a lot about over the last couple of quarters about just having sulfur at the right facilities to basically sustain operating rates at the facilities that are, in fact, running. I'd love to just go through kind of a state of the union of New Wales, Bartow, Riverview, understanding that there can be differences in operating rates based on products so on and so forth.

過去幾個季度你們談了很多，關於如何把硫磺配置在正確的設施，以基本上維持那些實際仍在運轉的設施之營運稼動率。我想請你們概括說明一下New Wales、Bartow、Riverview的整體狀況；我理解不同產品可能會造成營運稼動率的差異等等。

But where do you stand there in terms of your sulfur supply heading into 2027? How do you feel about New Wales after, I think, one of the company's largest turnarounds and history in the first quarter of this year, there's still a lot to kind of look forward to. So I'm just kind of curious on where you think you are in that process?

但就邁向2027年而言，你們在硫磺供應方面目前處於什麼位置？另外，對於New Wales你們怎麼看？我記得今年第一季那應該是公司史上規模最大的歲修之一，後續仍有很多值得期待的地方。所以我想了解你認為目前在這個流程中進展到哪一步？

Chris, thanks for the question, something we do talk a lot about, and they're working hard on. But just on the sulfur piece, we do have sulfur and confident we have sulfur going into 2027 to meet what we've kind of said of about 65%, 66% of our production needs. And that fits nicely with the Florida footprint. And that also helps us alleviate water management issues in Florida's tropical environment on rainfall because one of the biggest ways to do that is to run the asset.

Chris，謝謝你的提問，這確實是我們經常談、團隊也在努力推進的議題。先就硫磺部分而言，我們確實有硫磺供應，並且有信心在邁入2027年時，能滿足我們先前所說約65%、66%的生產需求。這與佛羅里達的資產布局非常契合。此外，這也有助於我們在佛羅里達熱帶降雨環境下緩解水資源管理問題，因為其中一個最重要的方法就是讓資產持續運轉。

So we feel good about where we are from a sulfur supply, again, on our contract basis, which has continued to stay advantage to spot, and we are optimistic that we can continue to do that with the relationships that we have with the refiners.

因此，從硫磺供應的角度來看，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意；同樣地，在合約基礎上，我們的合約價格持續優於現貨，我們也樂觀認為，憑藉與煉油廠之間的合作關係，我們可以持續維持這樣的優勢。

And the second part of your question is, how are things going at the facilities? Generally, things are going very, very well. We've seen production improvements at New Wales. We've seen production improvements at Riverview. I think, Chris, you like to see kind of operating rate, if I'm not mistaken, operating rate for the Florida footprint generally is in the low to mid-60% versus 10-K.

至於你問題的第二部分，也就是各個設施的運作情況如何？整體而言，進展非常、非常順利。我們看到 New Wales 的產量有所提升。我們也看到 Riverview 的產量有所提升。我想，Chris，如果我沒記錯的話，你會想看一下運轉率；佛羅里達整體據點的運轉率一般落在 10-K 所揭露水準的低到中 60% 區間。

And those vary month by month, as you just said on product mix. But what we see when we put the gas pedal down when product mix lines up at New Wales, particularly is very good production and no concerns on the things that we were dealing with over the last two- to three years.

而且正如你剛才提到的，這些數字會因產品組合而每月有所變動。但我們看到的是，當產品組合在 New Wales 尤其是對上時，我們一踩油門就能有非常好的產量表現，且對於過去兩到三年我們一直在處理的那些問題，已經沒有疑慮。

So we'd love to get no more than anyone else, the sulfur thing behind us, where we could demonstrate that more fully, but we are seeing very good results at Riverview, New Wales. Bartow continues to perform when DAP is a heavy product mix because that plant makes it better than anyone. And like I said, the Florida footprint is working to balance that sulfur that we have very well and hit the objectives of dealing with cash flow in the ways that we want.

因此，我們和其他任何人一樣，都希望能把硫磺的問題徹底拋在腦後，讓我們能更充分地展現成果；但我們在 Riverview、New Wales 都看到非常好的結果。當 DAP 在產品組合中占比較高時，Bartow 也持續有良好表現，因為那座工廠在生產 DAP 方面做得比任何人都好。而且如我所說，佛羅里達的整體據點正非常有效地平衡我們手上的硫磺，並達成我們在現金流處理方面想要達成的目標。

Joel Jackson, BMO.

BMO 的 Joel Jackson。

A couple of potash questions. Just First, at Esterhazy, can you talk about hitting a lower grade part of the ore last quarter? Was it hitting a south [ores] did you have to move the machine somewhere else. And then we know there was some seismic activity or may be generated by the miners. If you can comment on that.

我有幾個關於鉀肥的問題。首先，在 Esterhazy，上季你們提到採到較低品位的礦段，可以談談這件事嗎？是因為碰到南側的[礦體]，所以必須把採礦機移到別的地方嗎？另外，我們知道有一些地震活動，或可能是採礦作業引發的。如果可以的話，請你們評論一下。

And then just wanted to talk about the guidance for performance products going forward. Is the run rate we saw in Q3 now the new run rate with k-Mag gone?

另外也想談談未來 Performance Products（特種產品）的指引。在 K-Mag 已經出售之後，我們在第三季看到的運行水準（run rate）是否就是新的常態運行水準？

Yes, Joel, I appreciate the question. Let's just start with the seismic activity. I think there was some press potentially on that yesterday or day before. It's not unusual to have seismic activity in that deposit. It happens -- I don't want to say once a year, but that wouldn't surprise me if it was something like that. It's pretty moderate on the Richter scale standpoint. There's monitoring that Canadian government has. We have our own internal monitoring as well.

好的，Joel，謝謝你的提問。我們先從地震活動談起。我想昨天或前天可能有一些媒體報導。在那個礦床出現地震活動並不罕見。這種情況會發生——我不想說一年一次，但如果是類似那樣的頻率，我也不會意外。從芮氏規模的角度看，屬於相當溫和。加拿大政府有監測系統。我們內部也有自己的監測。

We did issue a statement just because that activity was felt at surface and in the town of Esterhazy specifically. So we want to make sure that we brought comfort to the community that there was no abnormal issue there. We do have protocols when those things happen to check. As you can imagine, the precious infrastructure underground that we have, particularly around the shafts and other mine workings that are critical. And everything was unaffected as it normally is.

我們確實發布了一份聲明，因為那次活動在地表以及 Esterhazy 鎮上都能感受到。因此我們希望讓社區安心，確認沒有任何異常狀況。當這類事件發生時，我們有既定程序進行檢查。你可以想像，我們在地下有非常珍貴的基礎設施，特別是井筒周邊以及其他關鍵的礦井工程。而一切都未受影響，這也符合以往的情況。

And our shafts are built for seismac activity that's pretty significant given that there's a history of seismic activity there. But as you can imagine, that whole piece of ground between the operators (technical difficulty) is pretty developed. And as you said, seismic activity is not unusual. So I just want to put that at ease that nobody likes to see that, but it's an artifact of heavy mining and we've got protocols in place and then it's important for us to make sure we update our community citizens to make sure that everything is all right as well.

而且我們的井筒是依照相當顯著的地震活動標準來設計建造的，因為那裡過去就有地震活動的歷史。但你可以想像，在營運方之間的那整片地層（technical difficulty）已經相當程度地被開發。正如你所說，地震活動並不罕見。所以我想讓大家放心：沒有人樂見這種情況，但這是高強度採礦的伴生現象；我們有完善的應對程序，同時也很重要的是，我們會向社區居民更新資訊，確保大家知道一切都安好。

When it comes to your second question before I turn over to Performance Products, and I'll turn that to Jenny. We did put out a statement on ore. But let me cover maybe the broader question more broadly, which is just potash in general because there's some things that I want to clarify in quarter 3 and then I really want to talk about where we are even through October because it's quite exciting. Although we did hit our sales target that we put out guidance on for quarter 3, our quarter 3 total potash production was below what we anticipated going into the quarter. So there's a few reasons for that.

至於你的第二個問題，在我把話題交給 Performance Products 之前——我會交給 Jenny 來回答。我們確實就礦石情況發布過一份聲明。但我想先更宏觀地談一下，也就是整體鉀肥的狀況，因為有一些第三季的事情我想釐清，並且我也很想談談我們一直到 10 月的進展，因為相當令人振奮。雖然我們達成了第三季指引中所設定的銷售目標，但第三季鉀肥總產量低於我們在進入該季度時的預期。原因有幾點。

One, Joel, you nailed is we did encounter some anomalous ore features. They were kind of salt domes that were not anticipated. That happens from time to time, and you have to adjust your mine plan that was behind us, but did cause some issues.

第一點，Joel，你說得沒錯：我們確實遇到了一些異常的礦體特徵。那有點像是原先未預期到的鹽丘（salt domes）。這種情況偶爾會發生，你就必須調整採礦計畫；雖然那段已經過去了，但確實造成了一些影響。

The other was, in aggregate, in quarter 3, we had heavier turnarounds that impacted us in totality and time from shutdown to full ramp-up. And then given our low inventory throughout quarter 3 and it remains pretty low as well right now, we were unable to build inventory as we needed for the anticipated Q4 sales, and we did have to adjust guidance, which I know many of you have seen.

第二點是，整體而言，在第三季我們進行了較多的歲修／停機檢修（turnarounds），從停機到完全爬坡復產所需的時間，對我們的總體表現造成影響。此外，由於第三季期間我們的庫存一直偏低，而目前也仍然相當低，我們無法如預期為第四季的銷售建立所需庫存，因此不得不調整指引，我知道各位很多人都已經看到。

The good news is that the facilities are performing very well. In fact, Esterhazy particularly, I want to highlight is set two records in October. The first was most production tons on K3 ore in its history. And then the second is the most ore tonnes mined at the site in over 60 years. So just to anchor on some proof points, Esterhazy is performing extremely well, has been as the quarter ore tons were actually quite good as well one of the highest -- the highest of the year.

好消息是，各項設施的表現非常好。事實上，Esterhazy 尤其值得一提，10 月創下兩項紀錄。第一項是其歷史上 K3 礦石的最高產量（以噸計）。第二項是該場址在超過 60 年來最高的採礦量（以礦石噸數計）。因此，作為一些具體佐證，Esterhazy 的表現非常出色；而且就季度而言，礦石噸數其實也相當不錯，是今年最高——也是全年最高水準。

So going into '27, Esterhazy is on pace for over 5 million tons of production. And together with Belle Plaine and Colonsay, confidently we have total MOP capacity over 9 million tons at a time. Where we feel, as we've described what's going on in the Baltic and other places of the world that the world is going to need it. So we're pleased with where we are in the potash segment. Joel, so thanks for the question.

因此，展望 2027 年，Esterhazy 的產量有望超過 500 萬噸。再加上 Belle Plaine 與 Colonsay，我們有信心在同一時間點的 MOP（氯化鉀）總產能可超過 900 萬噸。正如我們所描述的，考量波羅的海以及全球其他地區正在發生的情況，全球將會需要這些供給。所以我們對鉀肥事業部目前的狀況感到滿意。Joel，謝謝你的提問。

And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Jenny to talk about Performance Products.

接下來，我把時間交給 Jenny，請她談談 Performance Products（特種產品）。

Thanks, Bruce. Joel, I think your question is more related to K-Mag. And with the transaction completed, on Carlsbad, we actually stopped sales of K-Mag in Q3, and we've been supporting and bridging customers with the new owner of Carlsbad. Aspire is another performance product in our potash portfolio. With robust demand to potash, the value of boron added to Aspire have been supported by the customers in North America and Brazil as well. So it's -- we are very pleased to the performance of our performance product in potash portfolio.

謝謝，Bruce。Joel，我想你的問題主要與 K-Mag 有關。隨著交易完成，在 Carlsbad 方面，我們在第三季實際上已停止 K-Mag 的銷售，並且一直在與 Carlsbad 的新所有者合作，協助並銜接客戶需求。Aspire 是我們鉀肥產品組合中的另一項特種產品。在鉀肥需求強勁的情況下，Aspire 所添加的硼元素價值也獲得北美與巴西客戶的支持。因此——我們對鉀肥產品組合中特種產品的表現感到非常滿意。

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

Ben Isaacson，豐業銀行（Scotiabank）。

Bruce, you mentioned earlier about conversion costs were improving. And I just wanted to ask about that trajectory. At your Investor Day, you talked about a target -- a 2027 target of reaching $90 to $95 and let's leave the year for now, but is that quantum still achievable? And if not, what's the right target? And is the gap to achieving that only based on volume improvement? Or are there further operational changes or upgrades that need to be made?

Bruce，你先前提到轉換成本正在改善。我想追問一下這個走勢。在投資人日，你們談到一個目標——2027 年達到每噸 90 到 95 美元；先不談年份，但這個幅度仍然可達成嗎？如果不能，正確的目標應該是什麼？而距離達成目標的差距是否只取決於產量提升？還是還需要進一步的營運變更或升級？

Ben, thanks for the question. So going back to Investor Day, just to level set that was the target, and those future targets were not adjusted for inflation. So however you want to adjust those, not trying to get cute, but that just is the what -- that presentation was based on. And yes, we are seeing improvement. In fact, was it $11 a tonne, Luciano, quarter-over-quarter improvement on conversion costs?

Ben，謝謝你的問題。回到投資人日，先把基準說清楚：那就是當時的目標，而且那些未來目標並未針對通膨做調整。所以你想怎麼調整都可以；不是要耍花樣，但那份簡報就是以此為基礎。是的，我們確實看到改善。事實上，Luciano，是不是每噸改善了 11 美元，轉換成本季對季？

Now granted some of that is due to Louisiana being down, and that's a higher conversion cost facility. But when we put those targets out, Ben, they were based primarily on cost absorption on those incremental tons.

當然，其中一部分是因為路易斯安那停產，而那是一座轉換成本較高的設施。但 Ben，當我們提出那些目標時，主要是基於新增噸數帶來的成本吸收（cost absorption）。

And just given 70%, 75% of our costs are fixed, that was a huge lever for us on achieving lower costs. There are other things around water management with some of our potential injection wells to better manage water at a lower cost that would be part of that as well. But by far, the biggest needle mover is volume improvement. Luciano, anything to add to that?

考量到我們約 70% 到 75% 的成本是固定成本，這對我們達成較低成本是一個很大的槓桿。另外還有一些與水管理相關的事項，例如我們一些潛在的注入井（injection wells），以更低成本更好地管理水，這也會是其中一部分。但到目前為止，影響最大的驅動因素仍是產量提升。Luciano，你要補充嗎？

Just one other proof point. Turnaround costs are not included in conversion costs, and they have been coming down. I'm talking about just turnaround, not turnaround plus idle plus utilization. If you look compared last year with this year, it's a decline of about $100 million. So another very good trend.

再補充一個佐證。大修（turnaround）成本不包含在轉換成本裡，而且它們一直在下降。我指的是單純的大修，不是大修加上閒置加上稼動率（utilization）。如果你比較去年和今年，大約下降了 1 億美元。所以這也是另一個非常好的趨勢。

Of course, this is going to be a little puzzle going forward because of the idle underutilization cost, but turnaround itself, you may remember, we had a very bad Q2 in 2025 and a lot of spend in Q1. So they have come down significantly as well.

當然，未來這會有點像拼圖，因為還有閒置／低度利用成本（idle underutilization cost），但就大修本身而言，你可能記得我們在 2025 年第二季表現很差，而且第一季花了很多錢，所以這部分也已大幅下降。

Andrew Wong, RBC.

Andrew Wong，加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）。

Can we just -- just two things actually. One is on the CapEx. The 2026 spend was cut to $1.2 billion from $1.5 billion. I think billing some work on gypstacks and settling ponds. And for 2027, you're targeting less than $1 billion. So can you just talk about what kind of spend is being deferred and when that CapEx spend would need to occur?

我有兩點。第一個是資本支出（CapEx）。2026 年支出從 15 億美元下調到 12 億美元。我想其中包含一些石膏堆場（gypstacks）和沉澱池（settling ponds）的工程。而 2027 年你們目標是低於 10 億美元。能否談談哪些支出被遞延，以及這些 CapEx 何時需要發生？

And then just secondly, on a phosphate ramp-up decision, like what would you need to see to make that decision? Is it just mainly about access to sulfur? Do you need to see a same period for phosphate margin improvement before we're starting? Could you like at the straight order we open tomorrow, would you just start prepping for that right away in anticipation of phosphate margins improvement. Can you just help us understand that a little bit better?

第二個是關於磷酸鹽（phosphate）產能爬坡（ramp-up）的決策：你們需要看到什麼才會做出這個決定？主要只是取決於硫磺（sulfur）的取得嗎？在開始之前，你們是否需要看到磷酸鹽利潤率在一段期間內改善？如果明天市場就直接好轉，你們會不會立刻開始準備，以因應磷酸鹽利潤率改善的預期？能否幫我們更好地理解一下？

Yes, Andrew, that is definitely the topic we focus on the most these days, is what would that look like. But let me address the CapEx first. So we have said before this acute disruption in the Persian Gulf and what we're dealing with right now, that $1.5 billion that we were planning to spend in 2026 was going to be our high watermark. We would have seen CapEx moderate a little bit over maybe the next two- to three years in the five-year period, but at the five-year point being at that kind of $1 billion mark.

是的，Andrew，這確實是我們這些天最聚焦的議題：那會是什麼樣子。但我先回答 CapEx。我們之前說過，在波斯灣出現這次急性擾動、以及我們目前正在面對的情況之前，我們原本計畫在 2026 年投入的 15 億美元會是高水位。在五年期間內，接下來兩到三年 CapEx 會稍微趨緩，但到五年時點會落在約 10 億美元的水準。

We still believe that that's the case. Obviously, we are not running our full footprint, which that was based on. And how we have been able to moderate CapEx to date in this year and looking forward into '27 is because we are far from running our full complement of footprint. And when you're not running the asset, it doesn't take sustaining CapEx. You're not eroding, you're not corroding, you're not doing anything.

我們仍然相信情況會是如此。顯然，我們目前並未以完整版圖（full footprint）運轉，而那個規劃是以完整運轉為基礎。而我們之所以能在今年迄今以及展望到 2027 年把 CapEx 降下來，是因為我們離全面運轉還差很遠。當你不運轉資產時，就不需要維持性資本支出（sustaining CapEx）。你不會磨損、不會腐蝕，也不會發生任何事情。

It's basically in the garage waiting to be driven. And so we have the luxury in an odd way of being able to avoid right now general sustaining CapEx. Along with that, those facilities that aren't running, whether they be mines or whether they be fertilizer complexes, their waste disposal requirements are not being needed to be expanded or the next new capacity built because we are adding no waste to them.

基本上就像車停在車庫裡等著開。所以在某種奇特的情況下，我們現在有餘裕可以避免一般性的維持性 CapEx。此外，那些未運轉的設施，不論是礦場或肥料複合廠，其廢棄物處置需求也不需要擴建或建置下一個新產能，因為我們沒有新增任何廢棄物。

So they also sit as they did when they were parked ready to take on those tons. And then in time, as they are filled, that CapEx spend will need to be put in to build new gypsum stacks or new clay settling areas or new tailings dams in Brazil.

因此它們就維持在停放時的狀態，隨時準備承接那些噸數。而隨著時間推進，當它們被填滿時，就需要投入 CapEx 來建造新的石膏堆場（gypsum stacks）、新的黏土沉澱區（clay settling areas），或在巴西建新的尾礦壩（tailings dams）。

So that wave is just being spread out and pushed. But again, we still believe that in time, when things do normalize, we will get down to a run rate of that $1 billion of CapEx for the full complement footprint that we were talking about prior to the Persian Gulf conflict.

所以那一波支出只是被攤開、往後推。但同樣地，我們仍相信，隨著時間推移、當情況恢復正常時，針對我們在波斯灣衝突之前所談的完整版圖，我們會把 CapEx 的常態化水準降到每年約 10 億美元。

So when will that occur? Well, I wish I knew, but I know you've thrown some hypotheticals, and we kind of play scenario dark board here in our own office on what could happen. But we need to see, first and foremost, stripping margins on a sustained basis above where they are today for our full portfolio. And more importantly, we need to see spot sulfur that we would be exposed to, to turn the new -- those idle facilities on far improved to where those spot prices are today.

那會在什麼時候發生？我希望我知道，但我知道你提出了一些假設情境，我們在辦公室也會用情境推演的方式來想像可能發生什麼。但首先、也是最重要的，我們需要看到就我們整體投資組合而言，剝採利潤（stripping margins）能在可持續的基礎上高於目前水準。更重要的是，我們需要看到我們在重啟那些閒置設施時會暴露到的現貨硫磺（spot sulfur）價格，相較於今天的現貨價格有明顯改善。

And we would need to have the confidence that those aren't going to whipsaw again because these actions are very serious actions to idle these things and to bring them back, bring people back, we want to have the confidence that we don't have to do this again in another week, month, four months down the road.

而且我們必須有信心，這些價格不會再度劇烈來回震盪（whipsaw），因為讓這些設施停產與再啟動都是非常重大的行動；要把人員找回來，我們希望有信心不會在一週、或一個月、或四個月後又得再做一次。

So we will have a very moderated approach. If and when that -- when that time will come because we are seeing good signs that things are improving. Sulfur prices on the spot market are definitely improving in all geographies, but US Gulf spot is one that we're particularly interested given our footprint exposure. And all of those things are starting to come to the right direction -- move in the right direction.

所以我們會採取非常審慎、循序漸進的方式。至於那個時間點何時到來——我們確實看到一些改善的好跡象。現貨市場的硫磺價格在所有地區都明顯改善，但考量到我們版圖的曝險，我們特別關注美國墨西哥灣（US Gulf）的現貨價格。而這些因素都開始朝正確方向——往正向移動。

But they're not quite where they need to be yet. And then when they do get there, we need to see that sustain and have confidence in total stripping margin, which includes most and all the other things, be north of where it is today. Luciano, I don't know if you have more you want to add?

但還沒有完全到達我們需要的水準。而當它們到達時，我們還需要看到其可持續性，並對整體剝採利潤（total stripping margin）有信心——這包含大部分甚至所有其他因素——要高於目前水準。Luciano，我不確定你是否還想補充？

Back to the CapEx question, another data point to call your attention. The asset retirement obligations, if you look into our consolidated statement of cash flows, we now for the second quarter in a row, we have a line specifying how much we spent on those. If you look at that nine months ended September 30, 2025, $201 million. Nine months ended September 30, 2026, $133. So it's a very meaningful decline.

回到資本支出（CapEx）這個問題，還有另一個數據點想提醒各位注意。資產除役義務（asset retirement obligations），如果你查看我們的合併現金流量表，現在連續第二個季度，我們都有一行明確列示我們在這方面花了多少。如果你看截至2025年9月30日的九個月，為2.01億美元。截至2026年9月30日的九個月，為1.33億美元。所以這是非常顯著的下降。

And that decline is structural because it's associated with work that has already been completed special in our permanently idle size like Plant City. So another important number to watch.

而且這個下降是結構性的，因為它與已經完成的工作有關，特別是在我們永久停置的場址，例如Plant City。因此，這也是另一個需要關注的重要數字。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

Duffy Fischer，高盛。

I just want to understand a little bit more on phosphate, the demand picture for your product today. So if you could get more sulfur at your (inaudible), would you produce more phosphate? And is the demand there to sell it at current prices? And then what's your take on North American fall application this year relative to this year, kind of flat? Or do you think it will be down again?

我只是想更進一步了解磷酸鹽（phosphate）方面，你們產品目前的需求情況。所以如果你們在（聽不清）能取得更多硫磺，你們會生產更多磷酸鹽嗎？而且是否有需求能以目前價格把它賣出去？另外，你們怎麼看今年北美秋季施用（fall application）相較於今年的情況，是大致持平嗎？還是你們認為會再度下滑？

Duffy, great question. Thanks for asking. Let me just talk just generally, and I'm going to turn it over to Jenny. But what we see, not only in North America, but the globe is that demand is actually surprisingly good on the upside. And I think if we could get the economics and the confidence from a risk profile that those economics are sustainable for a period of time that we would turn things back on.

Duffy，問得很好。謝謝你提問。我先做一些概括性的說明，然後我會交給Jenny。但我們看到的不僅是在北美，全球的需求其實出乎意料地偏強、超出預期。我認為如果我們能在經濟性上成立，並且從風險輪廓的角度對這些經濟性在一段時間內可持續有信心，我們就會把產能重新開起來。

And we probably do that in a moderated way as volume would flow through. We thought about that. We've got a number of permutations that we would work on. But to answer your question, demand is pretty good. I think demand is constrained generally because of the sulfur and the supply side. So I'll let Jenny add to that and then address North American fall how this year compares to normal.

而且我們可能會以較為溫和的方式來做，讓量能逐步釋出。我們也思考過這點。我們有多種不同的方案可以運作。但回答你的問題，需求相當不錯。我認為整體需求一般是受到硫磺以及供給端的限制。所以我讓Jenny補充，並說明北美秋季施用今年相較於正常水準的情況。

Sure. Thanks, Bruce. I'd like to say the demand on phosphate globally, it is actually constrained by supply. It has been the case over the last couple of years, and this year is in particular because of the software-related product constraints. So this supply constraint it is there.

好的。謝謝，Bruce。我想說全球磷酸鹽的需求其實是被供給所限制。過去幾年一直如此，而今年尤其明顯，因為與硫磺相關的產品限制。所以這個供給限制確實存在。

And one of the evidence that I can share with you is North America. If you recall last year, we saw a reduction in North America more driven by farm economics. So last year, North America phosphate shipment was down 15% year-over-year.

我可以分享的一個證據是北美市場。如果你還記得去年，我們看到北美的下滑更多是由農場經濟所驅動。所以去年北美磷酸鹽出貨量年減15%。

This year, the general expectation was the demand will be further reduced, and that was probably the case for the spring application. As we got into four applications, especially when the commodity prices went up in late second half of September, farmers were really motivated to step in with a very clear understanding of end application of phosphate over the last seasons and also with the improving farm economics.

今年一般的預期是需求會進一步下降，而在春季施用時期可能確實如此。但當我們進入秋季施用，特別是當商品價格在9月下旬後半段上漲時，農民在對過去幾季磷酸鹽最終施用情況有非常清楚的理解下，加上農場經濟改善，確實更有動力進場。

So the full demand for phosphate in North America has been coming much stronger than many of us anticipated, even our customers, the retail customers, they're not prepared for such a strong demand. So with that, you have heard Bruce mentioned that we basically sold out our Q4 availability. So if we were to be able to produce more tons on phosphate in Q4 or into '27, we definitely see the demand. So that's probably hopefully answer your question.

因此，北美對磷酸鹽的整體需求表現比我們許多人預期的都要強，甚至我們的客戶、零售端客戶也沒有為如此強勁的需求做好準備。所以在這種情況下，你也聽到Bruce提到，我們基本上已經把第四季（Q4）的可供量賣光了。因此，如果我們能在Q4或進入'27生產更多磷酸鹽噸數，我們確實看得到需求。希望這樣能回答你的問題。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews，摩根士丹利。

Just wanted to ask a bit on the Eastern European potash situation and tied together with some of the other global dynamics. Bruce, I think I heard you refer to probably a reduction in exports, particularly out of Russia of potash for the fourth quarter. Wondering if you know if that's just production that's being continuing, but exports that aren't taking place, so therefore, it will get -- that's what's going to push in the future periods or some of the trade publications are suggesting there might actually be a reduction in production?

我想問一下東歐鉀肥（potash）的情況，並把它和其他全球動態一起看。Bruce，我想我聽到你提到第四季鉀肥出口可能會下降，特別是俄羅斯的出口。想請問你是否知道，這只是生產仍在持續、但出口沒有發生，因此會把供應推到未來期間？還是一些貿易刊物暗示可能其實會出現產量下降？

And I think if I tie that together with your announcement that you're going to make 400,000 less tonnes of potash this year than you thought before. In your other comment, it sounds like China is coming to the renegotiating table on the contract maybe earlier than was previously expected, just given where their port inventories are. Can you just put all that together for us in terms of what you're seeing and how you think that's going to play out over the next quarter or two?

另外，如果把這點和你們宣布今年鉀肥產量將比先前預期少40萬噸連在一起看。再加上你另一個評論，聽起來中國可能會比先前預期更早回到合約重新談判的桌上，可能是因為他們港口庫存的水位。你能否把這些整合起來，說明你們看到的情況，以及你們認為未來一到兩個季度會如何發展？

Yes, Vincent, thanks. A lot there to unpack. I'm going to probably get Jenny to assist me in this. But let's start with kind of the big ones is just demand overall for potash, we see that being record or very close to record this year, about 75 million tons of demand. So there is good demand, the affordability factor on potash still feels good for buyers and farmers. So that's the good news in the backdrop, and we continue to see good growth going into even '27 on that front.

好的，Vincent，謝謝。這裡面有很多需要拆解。我可能會請Jenny協助我回答。但先從比較大的面向開始：整體鉀肥需求，我們看到今年將創新高或非常接近新高，需求約7,500萬噸。所以需求良好；對買家和農民而言，鉀肥的可負擔性因素仍然感覺不錯。這是在大環境下的好消息，而且我們也持續看到這方面的良好成長，甚至延伸到'27。

China has come in big, but they've got big demand. So their stock-to-use ratios, when you put aside, and I'll let Jenny get into the details of that, their strategic reserve, which they really -- that's emergency program, and there is all sorts of hurdles that have to be met in order for that to be released. That is really not on the table.

中國進口量很大，但他們的需求也很大。所以他們的庫存使用比（stock-to-use ratios），如果把他們的戰略儲備先排除在外——我讓Jenny來談細節——那個戰略儲備其實是緊急方案，必須滿足各種門檻才會釋出。那基本上不在討論範圍內。

So that is why, given the backdrop and the constructiveness in the market, I think some of these things that we've been talking about with Eastern Europe potash shipments coming out of the Baltic Sea, things like that, the China is very eager to engage. In fact, there has been engagement, as you've noted, and I said in my prepared comments, this is some of the earliest that they've done that possibly ever. But let me let Jenny kind of add to that because we see the potash market being very constructive. Jenny?

因此，在這樣的背景與市場建設性（constructiveness）之下，我認為我們一直在談的某些事情，例如東歐鉀肥經由波羅的海出貨等，讓中國非常積極願意接觸洽談。事實上，正如你所指出的，確實已經有接觸；而且我在事先準備的發言中也提到，這可能是他們有史以來最早開始做這件事的時點之一。不過我先讓Jenny補充，因為我們認為鉀肥市場非常具有建設性。Jenny？

Sure, Bruce. I guess probably just want to add some data points. The growth of demand for potash this year is actually across the board with one exception, which is in Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Indonesia because of the drought situation. Other than that two markets, the growth of potash has been really robust in 2026.

好的，Bruce。我想補充幾個數據點。今年鉀肥需求的成長其實是全面性的，只有一個例外：東南亞的馬來西亞、印尼，因為乾旱情況。除了這兩個市場之外，2026年鉀肥的成長一直非常強勁。

In terms of China, indeed, we have seen a very strong import demand. And as you can see that they've imported more than 4 million tonnes up to end of September, and that added port inventory, which is very visible, right? I want to call what -- two things. One is the domestic demand, the underground application increased close to 1 million tonnes. So that import demand increases, it's not only building inventory, it actually supports the growth of the demand in country.

就中國而言，確實，我們看到非常強勁的進口需求。你也可以看到，截至9月底他們已進口超過400萬噸，並增加了港口庫存，而這是非常可見的，對吧？我想點出兩件事。第一是國內需求，地下施用（underground application）增加了接近100萬噸。所以進口需求的增加不只是建立庫存，它其實也支撐了國內需求的成長。

The second part is really the strategic reserve. It's very clear the Chinese government has saying the demand and the benefit of building its reserve in order to support its agricultural market. The early starting point of the negotiation portends their desire to further build the reserves. We heard speculations of higher reserves being ordered to be built. So those are the very strong drivers to further build the demand growth into 2027.

第二部分其實是戰略儲備。很明顯，中國政府一直在談論建立儲備以支撐其農業市場的需求與效益。談判的較早啟動，預示了他們希望進一步擴大儲備。我們也聽到市場揣測，可能已下令建立更高水位的儲備。因此，這些都是推動需求成長延續至2027年的非常強勁驅動因素。

Lastly, on the logistics constraints at Baltic ports in Russia, and that was widely reported. It's ordered by the Russian government in order to support the shipments of other commodities, including grains, and then potash was ordered to slow down its shipment. So the question is whether those slowdown of the shipments are going to be immensely built or those shipments are going to be gone.

最後，關於俄羅斯波羅的海港口的物流限制，這點已被廣泛報導。這是俄羅斯政府下令的，目的是支援其他大宗商品（包括穀物）的出貨，因此鈉肥（potash）被要求放慢出貨速度。所以問題在於，這些放緩的出貨是否會大幅累積，或是這些出貨量將會消失。

We turn to believe those tons are likely going to be done because they can't be shipped out into the market. The total reduction of exports out of Russia and Belarusian, likely going to be 1.5 million tons in Q4 only, which further support the strong fundamentals for potash as we get into 2027.

我們傾向認為，這些噸數很可能就此作罷，因為它們無法運出到市場。俄羅斯與白俄羅斯的出口總減量，僅在第四季就可能達到150萬噸，這也在我們邁向2027年之際，進一步支撐鈉肥強勁的基本面。

Salvator Tiano, KeyBanc.

Salvator Tiano，KeyBanc。

I'm just wondering, what are your expectations, firstly, broadly for phosphate pent-up demand next year, say, for the market if prices stay where they are currently still at elevated levels? And what could be the shipment rebound? Could it be very material in double-digit if phosphate prices become much more affordable as sulfur goes down? And you have that very interesting slide showing the phosphate content in the soil globally. Firstly, can you clarify in terms of the (inaudible) in North America.

我想請教，首先，若價格維持在目前仍偏高的水準，您對明年整體磷酸鹽被壓抑需求（pent-up demand）的預期為何？出貨量可能會如何反彈？如果硫磺價格下跌使磷酸鹽價格變得更可負擔，反彈幅度是否可能相當可觀、達到兩位數成長？另外，您有一張很有意思的投影片，顯示全球土壤中的磷酸鹽含量。首先，能否釐清北美（聽不清）方面的情況。

That seems to be a little bit odd with a comment you had earlier in the call that nutrients in the soil depleted rapidly. But also given what in that show that in Europe and North America, we have a lot of sulfur in the soil. Is there any chance this indicates actually that we've been over applying for years in the actual North American European market demand should actually be quite lower than it's been for the past five years?

這似乎與您稍早在電話會議中提到「土壤中的養分迅速耗竭」的說法有點不一致。但同時，從那張圖也顯示在歐洲與北美，土壤中有很多硫。是否有可能這其實表示我們多年來施用過量，因此北美與歐洲市場的實際需求應該比過去五年來的水準低很多？

Yes. So let me start from the phosphate deficiency. You very glad that you saw the map. So for the market like Europe and US, although you see that market soil type probably are more favorable to keep the nutrients of phosphate first in the soil, but it does not mean that nutrient removal can stay without replenishment can stay longer. So a couple of data points.

是的。我先從磷酸鹽缺乏談起。很高興你看到了那張地圖。因此，像歐洲與美國這樣的市場，雖然你看到那裡的土壤類型可能更有利於先把磷酸鹽養分保留在土壤中，但這不代表在不補充的情況下，養分被移除後還能維持更久。我提供幾個數據點。

TFI just released a report, its sample testing for the soil in North America. It shows 45% of the soil tested in North America shows phosphorus deficiency. So that is one data point. The second data point, as you mentioned earlier, phosphate application in the US market over the last two seasons have been lower than normally required, although you have not really seen the yield impact as we did in Brazil, which is very visible for the yield impact.

TFI剛發布一份報告，是針對北美土壤的樣本檢測。結果顯示，北美受測土壤中有45%呈現磷缺乏。這是第一個數據點。第二個數據點，如你先前提到的，美國市場過去兩個種植季的磷酸鹽施用量低於一般所需水準，儘管你尚未像在巴西那樣看到非常明顯的產量影響。

In the US market, this past season, while the harvest is just ongoing or just complete, we heard from our customers or farmers on the ground telling us the yield level are far off than what they anticipated. And those anecdotal reports from the field may not be the same as the data that have been published, but we believe the yield impact will eventually be reflected to the production eventually going to support the corn, soybean prices. So that's the phosphate deficiency part.

在美國市場，本季收成正在進行中或剛完成，我們從客戶或第一線農民那裡聽到，他們的單產水準遠低於原先預期。這些來自田間的軼聞報告可能與已公布的數據不完全一致，但我們相信，產量影響最終會反映在產出上，進而支撐玉米與黃豆價格。以上是磷酸鹽缺乏的部分。

On the demand side, I just want to remind you some of the data points with the significant reduction of application or shipment for phosphate due to supply across the globe, we are seeing significant reduction on the shipment. It's including in North America, we're going to see further reduction this year in '26.

在需求面，我想提醒你一些數據點：由於全球供應因素導致磷酸鹽施用或出貨大幅下降，我們看到出貨量顯著減少。這也包括北美；我們預期今年到2026年將進一步下降。

If you combine '25 and '26, North American phosphate reduction, applications are going to be reduced close to 25% versus normal year. Brazil, this year, we are going to see over 25% of the phosphate reduction in terms of the application. Remember, Brazil, you will see on the same season yield impact due to this application reduction.

如果把2025年與2026年合併來看，北美磷酸鹽施用量相較正常年份將減少接近25%。巴西今年在施用量方面也將出現超過25%的磷酸鹽減少。請記得，在巴西，你會在同一季就看到因施用量下降而造成的產量影響。

We're saying India, even with the government support, their applications are going to be reduced by 20%. So this list are going to go down. With the coming improvement of the commodity prices, as we mentioned, on the yield impact and potentially weather impact, we do see a very strong tailwind for phosphate demand as we get into 2027.

我們也看到印度，即使有政府支持，其施用量仍將減少20%。這份清單還可以繼續列下去。隨著我們提到的大宗商品價格改善、產量影響以及潛在的天氣影響，我們確實看到在邁向2027年時，磷酸鹽需求有非常強勁的順風。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

Matthew DeYoe，美國銀行（Bank of America）。

I wanted to hone in a little bit on the mining costs because I feel like some comments have been made in passing a little bit to me over time. If we just look at like the last three years, what would you say consolidated stripping ratios have been for the Florida mining operations? What should that look like in '27 versus '26, would generally have variable mining cost been? And with all the debottlenecking work, it kind of reasonable to -- if you publish a new technical report this year, I kind of think it would make sense.

我想更聚焦在採礦成本，因為我覺得過去一段時間有些評論是順帶一提地傳到我這裡。如果只看過去三年，你會怎麼說佛羅里達採礦作業的合併剝採比（consolidated stripping ratios）大概是多少？相較於2026年，2027年應該會是什麼樣子？一般而言，可變採礦成本會是什麼水準？另外，隨著所有去瓶頸（debottlenecking）工作推進，如果你今年發布新的技術報告，我覺得這樣做似乎也合理。

Yes, Matthew, I don't have '27 stripping margins at the tip of my fingertips for mining in Florida. And part of that is we're still going through the planning process of what '27 will be based on where we see demand. And so that's a big variable because each mine has got something different. But in general, stripping margins have increased, particularly because of our South Fort Meade reserve. That reserve is incredibly deep.

是的，Matthew，我手邊沒有佛羅里達採礦在2027年的剝採比（stripping margins）即時數字。部分原因是，我們仍在進行2027年的規劃流程，會依據我們對需求的判斷來制定。因此這是一個很大的變數，因為每座礦場的情況都不同。但整體而言，剝採比已經上升，特別是因為我們的South Fort Meade儲量。那個儲量非常深。

It does have good rock in the eastern part, but we are having to bench mine there, which means strip off a 20-foot layer of overburden, get the dragline back down on the bench and then be able to mine the last 80 feet of overburden, rock, inter-burden, whatever may be there.

它在東側確實有不錯的礦石，但我們必須在那裡進行階梯式採礦（bench mine），也就是先剝除20英尺厚的覆蓋層（overburden），把拉鏟挖土機（dragline）移回到台階上，然後才能開採最後80英尺的覆蓋層、礦石、夾層（inter-burden）或其他可能存在的物質。

So that is definitely added to costs at South Fort Meade. Those are highly variable as well, and I'm sure you've been to our sites. Unlike in potash, where things are more consistent, generally speaking, in Florida, you can see in a few square mile difference, higher variability. But in general, South Fort Meade has a higher strip ratio than what it has had in the past.

因此，這確實增加了South Fort Meade的成本。這些成本也高度可變，我相信你也去過我們的場址。不同於鈉肥（potash）那種相對一致的情況，一般來說，在佛羅里達，你可能在相距幾平方英里的地方就會看到更高的變異性。但總體而言，South Fort Meade的剝採比高於過去。

The good news is, at least for now, in one regard is that, that mine is idle, and we are benefiting from much lower costs as we move into '27 with just Four Corners Wingate and then what is running at Miski Mayo, that is a much more advantaged composition for rock supply and cost.

好消息是，至少就目前而言，其中一個面向是那座礦目前處於停工狀態；隨著我們在2027年只靠Four Corners Wingate，以及Miski Mayo正在運轉的產能，我們正受益於更低的成本，因為那在礦石供應與成本結構上更具優勢。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

Edlain Rodriguez，瑞穗（Mizuho）。

Just wanted to get your insight into the affordability concerns with phosphate. Like if price to stay as elevated as they are, like what's going to drive farmers back to normal consumption? I mean do we need to see lower phosphate prices or a significant increase in corn prices, because with December '27, corn prices below $5, and I'm not sure that's going to do it. Like what do we need to see happening for the affordability concerns to be kind of be resolved?

我想請你分享對磷酸鹽可負擔性疑慮的看法。如果價格維持在目前這麼高的水準，什麼因素會驅動農民回到正常的消費量？我的意思是，我們是否需要看到更低的磷酸鹽價格，或玉米價格大幅上升？因為以2027年12月合約來看，玉米價格低於5美元，我不確定這是否足夠。我們需要看到什麼情況發生，才能讓可負擔性疑慮算是被解決？

No, totally get to your question, Edlain, and I appreciate that because it's something we talk about a lot, too, is there probably is at some point, a ceiling that could put the damper on demand. But we actually don't ironically see that right now. And it's hard to separate, and I know this is the difficulty for all of us is what is actually driving the lower consumption? Is it actually supply constraint? Or is it actually demand disruption due to affordability.

不會，Edlain，我完全理解你的問題，也很感謝你提出來，因為這也是我們經常討論的：在某個時間點，可能會有一個上限，進而抑制需求。但諷刺的是，我們目前其實沒有看到這種情況。而且很難區分——我知道這也是我們所有人的難題——到底是什麼在驅動較低的消耗量？是實際的供給受限嗎？還是因為可負擔性而造成的需求受擾？

And I can't parts and parcel that particularly well, it might be a little bit of both, depending on the geography and what's going on. But in North America, particularly, and Jenny alluded to it earlier, and I'll let her comment on it again, if she's got more to add, is we are seeing the farmers actually want to engage. It's a matter of likely not being able to get as much product as they want. Farmers know the agronomic science. They know what's in their soil, particularly in the US and in Canada and North America in general.

我沒辦法把這些因素拆解得特別清楚，可能兩者都有一點，取決於地區以及當地發生的情況。但在北美，特別是——Jenny 先前也提到過，我也讓她再補充看看——我們看到農民其實是想要參與、想要採購的。問題很可能在於他們拿不到想要的那麼多產品。農民了解農藝科學。他們知道土壤裡有什麼，尤其是在美國、加拿大，以及整體北美地區。

Brazil as well. They're very sophisticated in testing that. They are seeing, as Jenny alluded to earlier, proof points that their soils are deficient. They are going to -- for that marginal cost probably want to apply fertilizer to maximize yield as long as they can get it.

巴西也是。他們在檢測方面非常成熟。他們看到——如 Jenny 先前提到的——一些證據點，顯示他們的土壤養分不足。因此，在那個邊際成本之下，只要拿得到肥料，他們很可能會想施肥以最大化產量。

Could there be a point where that destroys? We always are trying to think about that. We don't necessarily control that because these prices are global. But the other thing is, if you believe, and we do that yields will be impacted because of under application that has happened over the last two seasons -- two years, fertilizer seasons -- fertilizer years, these are going to be evident at some point in time, likely the biggest proof point to that is going to be a harvest that comes off in the spring. And we will see what yields actually are, and that will probably set a direction on ag commodity prices.

會不會有一個點，到了那裡需求就被破壞？我們一直在思考這件事。但我們不一定能控制，因為這些價格是全球性的。不過另外一點是，如果你相信——而我們也相信——過去兩個季節（兩年、兩個肥料季／肥料年度）因施用不足而導致的減產影響，終究會在某個時間點顯現；而對此最大的驗證點，很可能就是春季收成出來的那一季。到時我們會看到實際產量是多少，而這大概會為農產品價格定下方向。

And if those yields are down where we think what we're hearing boots on the ground from our people, that's probably more on the downside to what some of the published yields are. That's going to be tailwinds for ag commodity prices. It's going to be tailwinds for farmer economics. It's going to be tailwinds for fertilizer demand. Jenny, anything to add? She's shaking her head, no, Edlain. So I learned from her well.

如果那些產量如我們所預期地下滑——我們從第一線同仁（boots on the ground）聽到的情況——那可能比一些已發布的產量數據還要更偏下行。這將成為農產品價格的順風。這將成為農民經濟狀況的順風。這將成為肥料需求的順風。Jenny，有要補充的嗎？她在搖頭，沒有，Edlain。所以我從她身上學得很好。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

Kristen Owen，Oppenheimer。

So you've talked about production costs improving, but not yet at the level to restart. You've also given us some color on SG&A and CapEx in 2027. Can you just explain for us what is the production assumption underlying those estimates? And what would change in that cost outlay if you were to get comfortable enough to restart production?

你們談到生產成本正在改善，但還沒到足以重啟的程度。你們也提供了一些關於 2027 年 SG&A 和資本支出（CapEx）的資訊。你能否為我們說明一下，這些估算背後所依據的生產假設是什麼？如果你們對重啟生產的信心提高到足夠程度，那麼在成本支出上會有哪些變化？

Yes. Kristen, I'm going to turn it over to Luciano and give you some color around that question.

好的。Kristen，我把這個問題交給 Luciano，請他補充一些說明。

So the assumptions are the current production levels. So if you go back to full operating rates, then you would have all the cost dilutions applying on top of that on the proportion of 80% fixed cost, 20% variable costs.

所以這些假設是以目前的生產水準為基礎。因此，如果你回到滿載運轉，那麼你會看到所有的成本稀釋效益（cost dilutions）疊加上去，因為成本結構大約是 80% 固定成本、20% 變動成本。

So Kristen, it's too murky right now to know exactly when. So what we are doing, as we have said and what I think a company in this situation should do is control what we can control and plan for the things that are only directly in front of us, which is maintaining that sulfur advantage contract that we have versus spot, producing as efficiently as we can in placing those tons in the marketplace where there is active demand.

所以 Kristen，目前太不明朗，無法確切知道會在什麼時候。因此我們正在做的——正如我們所說、也如我認為處於這種情況的公司應該做的——是控制我們能控制的事情，並且只針對眼前直接可見的事項做規劃：也就是維持我們相對於現貨所擁有的硫磺優勢合約，盡可能高效率地生產，並把這些噸數投放到有實際需求的市場。

And waiting to see and being ready to capitalize on upside economics as fast as possible when those costs, particularly around raw materials fall into a favorable sustainable level that we feel worth the risk to restarting and then that would justify if there's additional CapEx that we've deferred, that needs to be pulled forward and other costs. So that's how we're thinking about it. And I think that's the right way to think about it because we just don't know when that's going to happen.

同時等待觀察，並在經濟性上行出現時，盡可能快速地把握機會——當成本，特別是原物料成本，下降到我們認為有利且可持續的水準、值得承擔重啟風險時；那也會使我們有理由把先前遞延的額外資本支出（CapEx）拉回到前面執行，以及承擔其他成本。這就是我們的思考方式。我認為這也是正確的思考方式，因為我們就是不知道那會在什麼時候發生。

But one other thing is absolutely Q4 is going to be a trough in terms of EBITDA especially in the phosphate segment because of the flow-through of the guidance we just gave of to $850 per tonne on sulfur prices. So it's obviously higher than the $715 million of this quarter. So that's going to have an impact on realized tripper margins that you're going to see in print.

但另外一點是，第四季（Q4）在 EBITDA 上絕對會是谷底，尤其是在磷酸鹽部門，因為我們剛剛給出的指引會反映出硫磺價格每噸到 850 美元的傳導效應。所以這顯然高於本季的 7.15 億美元。因此，這會影響你在報表上看到的已實現的 Tripper 利潤率。

But although from a cash perspective, we're going to immediately start realizing the benefits of the 650 contract price and lower sulfur prices. So we could talk about many tailwinds on the cash side, but the number you're going to see from an EBITDA perspective in phosphates and for Mosaic will trough at quarter 4.

不過，從現金的角度來看，我們會立即開始實現 650 合約價格以及更低硫磺價格所帶來的效益。所以我們可以談很多現金面的順風，但你從 EBITDA 的角度在磷酸鹽以及 Mosaic 看到的數字，會在第四季觸底。

So with that, we are at time for this call, great detail and complex questions. Much appreciated the active engagement. But thank you to all of you. But to conclude our call, I'd like to reiterate a few key points. We have a strong foundation, a more resilient portfolio and the flexibility to manage through the current environment while remaining focused on long-term value creation.

那麼，時間也差不多到這通電話的尾聲了，問題很深入也很複雜。非常感謝大家積極參與。也謝謝各位。最後，在結束前我想重申幾個重點。我們有堅實的基礎、更具韌性的投資組合，以及在專注於長期價值創造的同時，管理當前環境的彈性。

We're seeing increasingly constructive signals across our markets. Agricultural fundamentals remain supportive, phosphate supply does remain constrained and potash continues to benefit from strong global demand. As affordability improves and growers replenish nutrients following an extended period of under application, we are confident that Mosaic is positioned to generate stronger cash flow and returns as market conditions normalize.

我們在各個市場看到越來越多正向的訊號。農業基本面仍具支撐，磷酸鹽供給仍然受限，而鉀肥持續受惠於強勁的全球需求。隨著可負擔性改善、且種植戶在長期施用不足後補回養分，我們有信心 Mosaic 已具備條件，在市場狀況正常化時創造更強的現金流與報酬。

So thank you all for joining us today, and have a great safe day.

所以謝謝大家今天加入我們，祝各位今天平安順利。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect

本次電話會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的簡報。您現在可以中斷連線