美盛公司 (MOS) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode. After the company completes their prepared remarks, the lines will be open to take your questions. Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加美國莫賽克公司（The Mosaic Company）2026 會計年度第一季財報電話會議。目前所有與會者皆已進入僅收聽模式。公司完成事先準備的發言後，將開放線路供各位提問。請注意，本活動將進行錄音。

And I’ll now turn it over to Paul Massoud. Please go ahead.

接下來我將把電話交給 Paul Massoud。請開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our first-quarter 2026 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer. Luciano Siani Pires, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will review financial results. We will then welcome Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial, to join Bruce and Luciano as we open the floor for questions.

謝謝各位，歡迎參加我們 2026 會計年度第一季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Bruce Bodine 提供。執行副總裁兼財務長 Luciano Siani Pires 將說明財務結果。之後我們也將歡迎商務執行副總裁 Jenny Wang 加入，與 Bruce 與 Luciano 一同在問答環節開放提問。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this comments call. Statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management’s beliefs and expectations as of today’s date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published this morning and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Please note in today’s presentation and in our press release and performance data, we will refer to and provide various financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share, free cash flow, cost per tonne, and adjusted effective tax rate, either on a total company or segment basis.

在本次電話會議的發言中，我們將提出前瞻性陳述。相關陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。這些陳述係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並可能受到重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們今早發布的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的報告中。請注意，在今日簡報、新聞稿與績效資料中，我們將引用並提供多項財務衡量指標，包括調整後 EBITDA、調整後每股盈餘、自由現金流、每噸成本，以及調整後有效稅率，並可能以全公司或分部基礎呈現。

Unless we specifically state otherwise, statements regarding these measures referred to are adjusted, non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release.

除非我們另有明確說明，前述所提及的衡量指標皆為調整後的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些衡量指標與可比較之 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表，可於我們的財報新聞稿中查閱。

Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Bruce.

現在，我想把電話交給 Bruce。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. Our message for today is straightforward. The business climate is challenging, but it is allowing Mosaic to differentiate itself by benefiting from our significant advantages in optimizing our capital. I’ll touch on these topics to begin.

各位早安，感謝各位參加本次電話會議。我們今天要傳達的訊息很直接。商業環境充滿挑戰，但也讓莫賽克得以展現差異化，並受惠於我們在資本最佳化方面的顯著優勢。我將先就這些主題做簡要說明。

First, the business environment was and continues to be very dynamic. Geopolitical events are driving volatility throughout the global phosphate supply chain. Many producers are struggling to secure raw materials, resulting in an already tight market becoming even tighter. Global phosphate prices reflect that shortage, and this has put additional pressure on farm economics.

首先，商業環境一直且仍然非常動態。地緣政治事件正推升全球磷酸鹽供應鏈的波動。許多生產商正努力確保原料供應，使得原本已偏緊的市場更加吃緊。全球磷酸鹽價格反映了這種短缺，並對農業經濟帶來額外壓力。

Second, the current environment has allowed Mosaic to differentiate itself. The investments we’ve made in our US Phosphate assets over the last two years are driving high production rates, with three of our four facilities operating at targeted rates at the end of the first quarter. With a planned turnaround at our largest facility, New Wales, now behind us, our production capability has improved significantly. Mosaic maintains an advantaged geographic position as well as a greater diversity of sources relative to global peers when it comes to sulfur and ammonia supply, but we aren’t without risk.

第二，當前環境讓莫賽克得以展現差異化。過去兩年我們對美國磷酸鹽資產的投資，正推動高產能運轉；截至第一季末，我們四座設施中有三座以目標產能運行。隨著我們最大設施 New Wales 的計畫性歲修已完成，我們的生產能力已顯著提升。在硫磺與氨的供應方面，莫賽克相較全球同業具備更有利的地理位置與更多元的來源，但我們並非毫無風險。

Raw material prices and availability, especially for sulfur, are forcing us to revisit our production plan. We’ll discuss this in more detail shortly. But our key message on this topic is that we are making tough but responsible decisions that maintain shareholder value through the current environment without sacrificing our ability to benefit when conditions improve.

原料價格與供應可得性，特別是硫磺，正迫使我們重新檢視生產計畫。我們稍後會更詳細討論。但我們在此議題上的核心訊息是：在不犧牲未來景氣改善時受益能力的前提下，我們正做出艱難但負責任的決策，以在當前環境中維持股東價值。

This leads into my third point, which is that Mosaic remains focused on discipline in capital allocation and reallocation strategy. In addition to adjusting our operating plan, investing in our Phosphate assets, and optimizing our strong Potash business, we’re also shifting capital away from underperforming assets toward better opportunities. Over the last few months, we sold three mines in idled production at underperforming assets, and we’re continuing to invest in new opportunities. It’s all happening as we manage through the current realities of our business with agility. We’ve reduced this year’s CapEx and are adapting our production outlook to the current market environment and moving inventory built at the end of last year to improve our working capital position.

這也引出我的第三點：莫賽克仍專注於資本配置與再配置策略的紀律。除了調整營運計畫、投資磷酸鹽資產，以及最佳化我們強勁的鉀肥業務之外，我們也正將資本自表現不佳的資產轉向更好的機會。過去幾個月，我們出售了三座位於表現不佳資產、且處於停產狀態的礦場，同時持續投資新的機會。在我們以敏捷方式因應當前業務現實的同時，這些工作正同步推進。我們已下調今年的資本支出（CapEx），並依據當前市場環境調整產量展望，同時去化去年底建立的庫存，以改善營運資金狀況。

Before we dive deeper into our business, I’d like to spend some time on the broader market. As all of you have seen, the conflict in the Persian Gulf has exacerbated an already stretched global fertilizer market. Roughly 20% of global phosphate, a third of urea, a quarter of ammonia, and half of seaborne sulfur volumes originate in the Middle East. When combined with the product that comes out of the Black Sea, nearly half of all phosphate raw materials have been impacted by the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. You can see these dynamics in current phosphate benchmark stripping margins, which are under severe pressure despite elevated finished product prices. Compressed margins and limited raw material availability have forced producers to curb production. For example, China has banned phosphate exports through August, and other competitors have significantly curtailed production primarily due to sulfur availability.

在更深入討論我們的業務之前，我想先花一些時間談談更廣泛的市場。各位都已看到，波斯灣的衝突使原本已緊繃的全球肥料市場雪上加霜。全球約 20% 的磷酸鹽、三分之一的尿素、四分之一的氨，以及一半的海運硫磺供應量，皆源自中東。再加上來自黑海地區的產品，全球近一半的磷酸鹽原料已受到烏克蘭與伊朗衝突的影響。從目前磷酸鹽基準的剝離（stripping）利潤可看出這些動態：儘管成品價格居高不下，利潤仍承受嚴重壓力。利潤被壓縮以及原料供應有限，迫使生產商縮減產量。例如，中國已禁止磷酸鹽出口至 8 月；其他競爭對手也因硫磺供應可得性等因素而大幅減產。

To put it simply, there’s not going to be enough phosphate to meet global demand. Demand for phosphate remains dynamic as well, with diverging trends around the world. In the US, farm economics remain challenging, leading to careful nutrient purchasing decisions that impacted spring demand. In Brazil, farmer economics and access to credit remain significant headwinds, and availability of nutrients and raw materials is weighing further on Brazilian agriculture.

簡而言之，磷酸鹽供應將不足以滿足全球需求。磷酸鹽需求同樣呈現動態變化，全球各地趨勢分歧。在美國，農業經濟仍具挑戰，導致農戶在養分採購上更為謹慎，影響了春季需求。在巴西，農戶經濟狀況與信貸取得仍是重大逆風，而養分與原料的供應可得性也進一步壓抑巴西農業。

In contrast, demand from key markets in Asia has been stronger. In India, for example, the government has signaled that it will continue to support phosphate imports at today’s prices. For regions grappling with affordability, demand disruptions should be temporary. There are real agronomic consequences caused by persistent underapplication. There is no substitute for phosphate. And when application rates are reduced too far or for too long, soil nutrient balances drop and yields are impacted. While those effects may not appear immediately, they have historically been an important driver of demand normalization as growers respond.

相較之下，亞洲主要市場的需求更為強勁。例如在印度，政府已釋出訊號，將持續以目前價格支持磷酸鹽進口。對於正面臨可負擔性壓力的地區而言，需求中斷應屬暫時性。長期施用不足會造成真實的農藝後果。磷酸鹽沒有替代品。當施用量降低過多或時間過長，土壤養分平衡會下降，並影響作物產量。雖然這些影響未必立即顯現，但歷史上往往是推動需求回歸常態的重要因素，因為種植者會隨之調整。

Shifting to Potash, last year’s stability has continued in 2026. Market fundamentals remain balanced with robust demand in all major markets consuming global supply. US growers see good value in potash at today’s prices, and this is being reflected in spring demand. In Southeast Asia, attractive palm oil prices are driving strong application. In China, imports set a record in the first quarter as the country replenishes low inventories. Last month, Canpotex announced it was fully committed through June and on pace for a record 2026.

轉向鉀肥（Potash），去年市場的穩定性在 2026 年延續。市場基本面仍維持平衡，全球供應所對應的所有主要消費市場需求皆強勁。美國種植者認為以目前價格購買鉀肥具有良好價值，這也反映在春季需求上。在東南亞，具吸引力的棕櫚油價格正帶動強勁施用。在中國，第一季進口量創下紀錄，因該國正在補充偏低的庫存。上個月，Canpotex 宣布其訂單已完全排滿至 6 月，並正朝創下 2026 年新高的步調前進。

As such, we expect inventories to be tight through the second quarter. With this market backdrop in mind, I’ll shift our conversation to Mosaic’s business performance and outlook. In Phosphate, we sold 1.9 million tonnes in the first quarter as deferred demand from the end of 2025 returned. This was the highest quarterly sales volume total for the segment in five years and a reflection of the broad market access that allows us to position product where it’s needed.

因此，我們預期庫存將在第二季期間維持偏緊。在此市場背景下，我將把討論轉向莫賽克的業務表現與展望。在磷酸鹽方面，第一季我們銷售了 190 萬噸，因 2025 年底遞延的需求回流。這是該分部五年來最高的單季銷售量，並反映我們廣泛的市場通路，使我們能將產品配置到最需要的地區。

On the production side, our investments in our assets are yielding results as well. In the past, we’ve talked about reaching finished product volumes of 1.8 to 2 million tonnes per quarter, but one of the most significant production hurdles for us over the last few years has been in our US phosphoric acid rates, and this is where we're seeing real improvements. In the first quarter, Bartow, Riverview, and Faustina had phosphoric acid operating rates at or above 80%, which is in line with our targets.

在生產端，我們對資產的投資也正在產生成果。過去我們曾談到每季達到180萬至200萬公噸的成品產量，但過去幾年對我們而言最重大的生產瓶頸之一是在美國磷酸的開工率，而這正是我們看到實質改善的地方。第一季，Bartow、Riverview 與 Faustina 的磷酸運轉率達到或高於80%，符合我們的目標。

Our largest facility, New Wales, completed a very extensive plant turnaround in March, which should allow for higher phos acid rates from that plant in the future. Keep in mind that our finished product volumes will ultimately be driven by a combination of phosphoric acid operating rates and the type of product our customers need, as some finished products like DAP and MAP require more acid than MicroEssentials.

我們最大的設施 New Wales 於3月完成一次非常大規模的工廠歲修，這應可讓該廠未來的磷酸開工率提高。請記住，我們的成品產量最終將由磷酸開工率與客戶所需產品類型的組合所驅動，因為某些成品如 DAP 與 MAP 比 MicroEssentials 需要更多的酸。

The recovery in our US operating rates combined with our structural advantages for raw materials have helped us thus far. Roughly 80% of our US ammonia needs are supplied by our own plant in Louisiana and below-market domestic supply agreements, some of which are tied directly to natural gas. And roughly 80% of our sulfur needs come from the US Gulf oil refineries in molten form, which we’ve been able to source through the second quarter with no constraints. That said, we’re not immune to the current environment, as strong global sulfur demand competes for limited available supply, including product from our own backyard in the US.

我們美國開工率的回升，加上我們在原料方面的結構性優勢，迄今為止對我們有所助益。我們在美國約80%的氨需求由路易斯安那自有工廠以及低於市價的國內供應協議提供，其中部分協議直接與天然氣掛鉤。而我們約80%的硫需求來自美國墨西哥灣沿岸的煉油廠，以熔融形態供應；我們在第二季一直能在無任何限制的情況下取得來源。即便如此，我們也無法完全免疫於當前環境，因為強勁的全球硫需求正在爭奪有限的可用供給，其中也包括來自我們美國本土「自家後院」的產品。

Today, spot sulfur prices imply compressed third quarter stripping margins that are well below our realizations in the first half of the year. Given this environment, we’re reviewing our 2026 global production plan for Phosphates and taking initial steps to curtail production. As part of these efforts, we are partially reducing production rates at Bartow and Louisiana and scaling back additional fertilizer production in Brazil. This is a temporary move that allows us to limit the need for incremental sulfur at today’s prices and wait until the market normalizes.

目前，現貨硫價所隱含的第三季剝離利潤（stripping margins）受到壓縮，遠低於我們上半年實現的水準。在此環境下，我們正在檢視2026年磷酸鹽（Phosphates）全球生產計畫，並採取初步措施以縮減產量。作為這些努力的一部分，我們將部分降低 Bartow 與 Louisiana 的生產率，並縮減巴西的額外肥料產量。這是一項暫時性措施，使我們能在當前價格下限制對增量硫的需求，並等待市場回歸正常。

Our second-quarter sales volume guidance reflects these actions, but we’re prepared to restart operations quickly when conditions improve. We’re committed to staying nimble and adapting as needed over the coming quarter. Fortunately, our Potash business has been unaffected by recent geopolitical turmoil and continues to produce strong results. Our Belle Plaine solution mine benefited from low-cost natural gas, and volumes from Esterhazy trended higher from the 4th quarter.

我們第二季的銷售量指引已反映這些行動，但當情況改善時，我們也已準備好迅速重啟營運。我們承諾在接下來一季保持靈活，並視需要調整。所幸，我們的鉀肥（Potash）業務未受近期地緣政治動盪影響，並持續繳出強勁成果。我們的 Belle Plaine 溶液礦受惠於低成本天然氣，而 Esterhazy 的產量自第四季以來呈上升趨勢。

With the strength of global demand, we continue to run Colonsay, which is a higher-cost mine that can have an impact on our per-tonne production costs. That said, the ramp of the hydrofloat project and other optimization projects at Esterhazy are expected to drive costs meaningfully lower as we move through the year, and this should offset the cost impact of Colonsay. In Brazil, we’ve managed the business to adapt to the difficult credit environment. We’ve been selective in how we deployed capital, prioritized higher-quality counterparties, and adjusted sales pace where appropriate, while continuing to support growers and maintain our market presence,

在全球需求強勁之下，我們持續運轉 Colonsay；這是一座成本較高的礦場，可能會影響我們每公噸的生產成本。不過，隨著 hydrofloat 專案的爬坡，以及 Esterhazy 的其他最佳化專案推進，預期今年內成本將顯著下降，並可抵消 Colonsay 的成本影響。在巴西，我們已管理業務以因應艱困的信貸環境。我們在資本部署上更為審慎，優先選擇品質較高的交易對手，並在適當時調整銷售節奏，同時持續支持種植戶並維持我們的市場能見度，

In the short term, as we just discussed, raw material availability will have an impact on near-term operating rates. However, long-term fundamentals in Brazil remain promising, and we’re positioned to respond as conditions improve. As we think about the enterprise as a whole, we remain committed to optimizing our portfolio, reallocating capital to our key assets, and investing in high-return opportunities. Free cash flow remains a key focus for us as we manage through industry seasonality and the global trends we just discussed.

短期而言，如同我們剛才所討論，原料可得性將影響近期的開工率。然而，巴西的長期基本面仍然可期，而我們也已就位，能在條件改善時做出回應。從整體企業角度來看，我們仍致力於最佳化投資組合，將資本重新配置至關鍵資產，並投資於高報酬機會。在我們因應產業季節性與剛才討論的全球趨勢之際，自由現金流仍是我們的重點。

Deferred fourth-quarter phosphate demand meant we started the year with elevated inventories that we are now managing lower. Our phosphate finished goods inventory declined by roughly $120 million in the first quarter, although this was offset by product positioning in Brazil ahead of seasonal demand later this year. In addition to managing our working capital, we’re taking a harder look at our CapEx profile and supporting costs. After a thorough review of our project plans, we’ve lowered our 2026 CapEx guidance by $250 million to $1.25 billion.

第四季遞延的磷酸鹽需求意味著我們在年初時庫存偏高，而我們目前正將其降至較低水準。第一季我們的磷酸鹽成品庫存約下降1.2億美元，但這部分被我們為因應今年稍晚的季節性需求而在巴西進行的產品佈局所抵消。除了管理營運資金之外，我們也更嚴格檢視資本支出（CapEx）結構與支援成本。在徹底檢討專案計畫後，我們將2026年 CapEx 指引下調2.5億美元至12.5億美元。

Our new outlook optimizes our portfolio of projects and defers any less time-sensitive projects to future periods. Our new plan will not have an impact on our longer-term production targets. In addition, we are moving deliberately to streamline the organization’s support functions. In April, we initiated a workforce reduction that is expected to generate annualized expense savings of $50 million, of which $15 million will be realized this year.

我們的新展望將最佳化我們的專案組合，並把時間敏感度較低的專案延後至未來期間。我們的新計畫不會影響我們較長期的產量目標。此外，我們也正有計畫地精簡組織的支援職能。4月，我們啟動人力縮減，預期可帶來每年年化費用節省5,000萬美元，其中1,500萬美元將在今年實現。

This is in addition to the $100 million value capture program announced last year. We also continue to make significant progress in our efforts to address non-core assets as part of our capital reallocation strategy. Last month, we announced the idling and demobilizing of SSP production at Araxá in Brazil, along with related mining activity at Patrocinio. We’re assessing strategic alternatives for both sites, including a potential sale of the assets and the development of a niobium project at Patrocinio.

這還不包括去年宣布的1億美元價值擷取（value capture）計畫。作為資本重新配置策略的一部分，我們在處理非核心資產方面也持續取得重大進展。上月，我們宣布在巴西 Araxá 將 SSP 產線停工並撤場（idling and demobilizing），並同步處理 Patrocinio 的相關採礦活動。我們正在評估兩個場址的策略性選項，包括潛在的資產出售，以及在 Patrocinio 開發鈮（niobium）專案。

In April, we completed the sale of our Carlsbad Potash mine in New Mexico to International Minerals Carlsbad. These efforts to control costs and reduce future capital and ARO requirements create space for us to invest in new opportunities. Mosaic Biosciences continues to grow rapidly despite the financial pressure on farmers, a clear indication that our products are delivering on their value proposition. We expect to launch 8 to 10 new products in 2026, including two new products that were launched during the first quarter. We expect Mosaic Biosciences revenues to double again in 2026.

4月，我們完成將新墨西哥州 Carlsbad 鉀肥礦出售給 International Minerals Carlsbad。這些控制成本、降低未來資本需求與 ARO（資產除役義務）需求的努力，為我們投資新機會創造了空間。儘管農民面臨財務壓力，Mosaic Biosciences 仍持續快速成長，清楚顯示我們的產品正在兌現其價值主張。我們預期在2026年推出8到10項新產品，其中包含第一季已推出的兩項新產品。我們預期 Mosaic Biosciences 的營收在2026年將再次翻倍。

I also want to touch on our work on rare earth elements, which represents a long-term growth opportunity for Mosaic. In March, we announced a project development agreement with Rainbow Rare Earths following a positive economic assessment of the Uberaba gypstack in Brazil. The project would recover rare earth elements from phosphogypsum rather than through traditional hard rock mining, leveraging existing byproducts from our operations.

我也想談談我們在稀土元素方面的工作，這代表 Mosaic 的一項長期成長機會。3月，在對巴西 Uberaba 石膏堆（gypstack）完成正向的經濟性評估後，我們宣布與 Rainbow Rare Earths 簽署專案開發協議。該專案將從磷石膏中回收稀土元素，而非透過傳統硬岩採礦，並利用我們營運所產生的既有副產品。

We’re evaluating similar opportunities for rare earth extraction in the US, and early findings are encouraging. This is a long-term opportunity, and we are advancing it in a disciplined, phased manner consistent with our investment criteria.

我們也正在評估在美國進行稀土萃取的類似機會，初步結果令人鼓舞。這是一項長期機會，我們將以符合投資標準的方式，採取有紀律、分階段的方法推進。

To conclude, clearly we and the rest of the industry are operating in a challenging climate. Overall, we are managing with speed and agility, taking actions that are required by our current environment without sacrificing the long-term opportunities of our business. We believe we are well positioned to take advantage of the inevitable better market conditions when they arrive.

總結來說，很明顯我們以及產業其他公司都在充滿挑戰的環境中營運。整體而言，我們以速度與敏捷性進行管理，採取當前環境所要求的行動，同時不犧牲我們業務的長期機會。我們相信，當更好的市場條件不可避免地到來時，我們已處於有利位置以把握機會。

Now, I’ll ask Luciano to provide more details on our financials.

接下來，我會請 Luciano 提供更多財務細節。

Thank you, Bruce. So I will focus on what moved the numbers this quarter and the actions we took in response. In Phosphates, prices have continued to rise as a result of tight supply and the growing incremental consumption in industrial markets. On the raw material side, our dedicated sulfur supply chain in the Gulf on one hand, and some delay in the flow of higher-priced sulfur through inventories on the other, enabled us to realize an average cost of sulfur of $379 per tonne, which allowed us to realize stripping margins near $400 for the quarter.

謝謝你，Bruce。我將聚焦於本季哪些因素推動了數字變化，以及我們為因應所採取的行動。在磷酸鹽業務方面，由於供給吃緊以及工業市場的增量消費持續成長，價格持續上升。在原料端，一方面我們在墨西哥灣沿岸的專屬硫供應鏈，另一方面較高價格硫透過庫存流轉的速度有所延後，使我們本季硫的平均成本為每公噸379美元，進而讓我們本季實現接近每公噸400美元的剝離利潤（stripping margins）。

On the cost side, as Bruce mentioned, customer demand resulted in a product mix toward a higher percentage of sales represented by MAP and DAP, and this had an impact on all lines in our cost of goods sold. To put this in perspective on a per-tonne basis, MicroEssentials are comprised of 33% to 40% phosphoric acid, depending on which MicroEssentials product we’re talking about. However, MAP is comprised of 52% phosphoric acid. Higher acid content per tonne of finished product we sell will have an impact on unit COGS, including conversion costs per tonne and rock cost per tonne. This dynamic will become less visible when our production volumes and product mix normalize.

在成本方面，如 Bruce 所提到的，客戶需求使產品組合轉向由 MAP 與 DAP 代表的銷售占比提高，這對我們銷貨成本中的所有項目都造成了影響。以每噸來看，MicroEssentials 的磷酸含量約為 33% 至 40%，取決於我們所談的是哪一種 MicroEssentials 產品。然而，MAP 的磷酸含量為 52%。我們所銷售的每噸成品中較高的酸含量，將影響單位銷貨成本（COGS），包括每噸的轉換成本以及每噸的礦石成本。當我們的產量與產品組合回歸正常時，這種動態將變得不那麼明顯。

Specifically with regard to rock cost, during the first quarter, we moved all three of our South Fort Meade draglines to the new eastern expansion, and we performed a turnaround at the mine’s beneficiation plant. As we have said in the past, transition to this new area defers the need to construct a new mine and beneficiation plant well into the future as a result of our ability to pump slurry much longer distances to existing plants. However, we’re seeing increased overburden in the new area, which resulted in somewhat higher Florida cash mining costs of $63 per tonne, but we expect some improvement as the year progresses.

就礦石成本而言，第一季我們將南 Fort Meade 的三台拉鏟（dragline）全部移至新的東部擴建區，並在礦場的選礦（beneficiation）廠進行了停機檢修。如同我們過去所說，轉移至這個新區域，因為我們能將礦漿以更長距離輸送至既有工廠，因此可將興建新礦場與新選礦廠的需求延後到更久以後。不過，我們在新區域看到覆蓋層（overburden）增加，導致佛羅里達現金採礦成本略升至每噸 63 美元，但我們預期隨著年度推進會有所改善。

Finally, on raw materials, we do expect to see further increases in sulfur and ammonia costs in our second-quarter financials. Historically, we have stayed away from guiding toward sulfur and ammonia costs, but given today’s dynamic market, we thought some guidance would be helpful.

最後，在原物料方面，我們預期第二季財報中硫磺與氨的成本仍會進一步上升。過去我們一向避免對硫磺與氨的成本提供指引，但鑑於當前市場的動態，我們認為提供一些指引會有幫助。

For the second quarter in our Phosphate segment, we anticipate realized sulfur cost of roughly $540 per tonne and ammonia costs of roughly $610 per tonne. When combined with DAP pricing guidance for the segment of $760 to $780 per tonne, this suggests second quarter realized stripping margins will be in excess of $400 per tonne for our sales book, 60% of which has already been committed and priced.

就第二季的磷酸鹽（Phosphate）事業部而言，我們預期實現的硫磺成本約為每噸 540 美元，氨成本約為每噸 610 美元。若再結合該事業部 DAP 價格指引每噸 760 至 780 美元，這表示第二季我們銷售簿（sales book）的實現加工利差（stripping margins）將超過每噸 400 美元，其中 60% 已經承諾並完成定價。

Shifting to Brazil. In Brazil, we managed through similar sulfur cost dynamics alongside a challenging credit environment, with performance for the quarter coming in better than expected. Our distribution business continues to differentiate itself through careful risk management. Per tonne distribution margins improved sequentially despite a challenging environment for customer credit availability, and we expect further improvements in the second quarter.

接著談巴西。在巴西，我們在面對類似的硫磺成本動態以及具挑戰性的信貸環境下仍妥善應對，本季表現優於預期。我們的通路分銷業務持續透過審慎的風險管理展現差異化。儘管客戶信貸可得性環境艱困，每噸分銷毛利仍較前一季改善，我們預期第二季還會進一步提升。

In production, as we previously reported, we made a decision to idle operations at Araxá and Patrocinio. Of the $442 million in charges associated with these actions, $328 million was non-cash. While the former idling of Fospar in December was directly related to the current sulfur environment, our decision on Araxá and Patrocinio had been contemplated long before the recent disruptions. This is very important.

在生產方面，如同我們先前所報告，我們決定讓 Araxá 與 Patrocinio 的營運暫停（idle）。與這些行動相關的 4.42 億美元費用中，有 3.28 億美元為非現金項目。雖然去年 12 月 Fospar 的停產是直接與當前硫磺環境相關，但我們對 Araxá 與 Patrocinio 的決策在近期擾動發生之前很久就已在評估之中。這點非常重要。

Sulfur prices have exacerbated the situation, but Araxá returns have struggled to meet our internal hurdle rates for some time. Remember, that facility was exclusively focused on SSP production, a product whose margins have historically been challenged by significant import competition. Looking ahead, we believe this decision will result in improved operating margins for the segment, with annual maintenance CapEx savings of $20 million to $30 million helping cash flows. Also on the positive side, our Fertilizantes production business benefited from sequentially lower turnaround and repair costs.

硫磺價格使情況惡化，但 Araxá 的報酬率一段時間以來一直難以達到我們內部的門檻報酬率（hurdle rates）。請記得，該廠專注於 SSP 生產，而此產品的利潤率歷來受到大量進口競爭的挑戰。展望未來，我們相信此決策將改善該事業部的營業利潤率，每年 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元的維護性資本支出（maintenance CapEx）節省也將有助於現金流。另外正面的是，我們的 Fertilizantes 生產業務受惠於較前一季更低的歲修與維修成本。

Finally, as Bruce mentioned, we’re very focused on cash flows. Our updated CapEx guidance follows a thorough review of our project portfolio and the deferral of less time-sensitive projects to future periods. On working capital, we delivered on our promise to sell 1.9 million tonnes of phosphate products above production, and thus we were able to release $120 million of inventories tied to finished goods in the Phosphate segment.

最後，如 Bruce 所提到的，我們非常專注於現金流。我們更新後的資本支出（CapEx）指引，是在徹底檢視專案組合並將時間敏感度較低的專案延後至未來期間之後所做出的。在營運資金方面，我們兌現承諾，將磷酸鹽產品的銷售量較產量多出 190 萬噸，因此得以釋放磷酸鹽事業部與成品相關的 1.2 億美元庫存。

This release was mostly offset by purchases and increases in finished goods inventories in Mosaic Fertilizantes in preparation for seasonal demand in the coming quarters. If you look straight into the balance sheet, total working capital was modestly higher in Q1, compared to an increase of roughly $400 million in the first quarter of 2025.

這項釋放大多被 Mosaic Fertilizantes 為因應未來幾季的季節性需求而進行的採購與成品庫存增加所抵銷。若直接看資產負債表，第一季的總營運資金僅小幅增加，相較之下，2025 年第一季約增加 4 億美元。

So what’s the outlook for cash flow generation to the remainder of the year? 2026 cash flow generation will be influenced by higher raw material prices, as higher sulfur and ammonia costs continue to pressure working capital both in the raw materials inventory line and in finished goods inventory as well. Also, our production plan will influence cash flow generation, which we will continue to evaluate as market conditions evolve through the balance of the year.

那麼，今年剩餘期間的現金流創造展望如何？2026 年的現金流創造將受到較高原物料價格的影響，因為硫磺與氨成本上升將持續對營運資金造成壓力，反映在原物料庫存項目以及成品庫存上。此外，我們的生產計畫也會影響現金流創造；隨著今年剩餘期間市場狀況演變，我們將持續評估。

In the meantime, we will be diligent on things that we can control, as we’ve shown through our cost savings initiatives and our lower CapEx budget in 2026. To close, we have taken decisive actions to face an uncertain environment, curtailing operations, reducing support function costs, cutting CapEx, and managing working capital. All these actions reflect our resilience and position us to benefit over the longer term.

同時，我們會在可控事項上保持嚴謹，正如我們透過成本節省措施以及 2026 年較低的資本支出預算所展現的。總結來說，我們已採取果斷行動以面對不確定的環境，包括縮減營運、降低支援職能成本、削減資本支出，以及管理營運資金。所有這些行動都反映了我們的韌性，並使我們在更長期能夠受益。

I’ll stop here and turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

我先到這裡，接下來把電話交回給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

(接線員指示) Vincent Andrews，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. This is Justin Pellegrino on for Vincent. I was just hoping you could help us a little bit on the working capital side. You had previously mentioned the $300 million to $500 million of working capital release, understanding the world has changed since that was provided, but any sort of directional range, including your change of product production guidance or any other changes in raw materials, would be helpful to better understand what’s going on there.

嗨，早安。我是代替 Vincent 的 Justin Pellegrino。我想請你們在營運資金方面再協助我們釐清一下。你們先前提到營運資金可釋放 3 億到 5 億美元，我理解自從提供該數字後外部環境已經改變，但若能提供任何方向性的區間（包括你們對產品產量指引的變更或原物料的其他變化），將有助於我們更好理解目前的情況。

We have been saying that $300 million to $500 million of working capital relief. We saw a good chunk of that, all else being equal, as we came out of Q4 into Q1 materialize with about 300,000 tonnes of additional sales in Phosphates over production. As Luciano talked about, there was about $120 million of cash, but we did see some offsets with working capital build, which is seasonal, by the way, in Brazil. But with these higher input costs, that helped offset that as well.

我們一直在說營運資金可緩解 3 億到 5 億美元。在其他條件不變下，當我們從第四季進入第一季時，其中相當一部分已經實現：磷酸鹽的銷售量較產量多出約 30 萬噸。如 Luciano 所談到的，約有 1.2 億美元的現金，但我們也看到一些抵銷，來自營運資金的增加——順帶一提，這在巴西是季節性的。但更高的投入成本也有助於抵銷那部分。

But given the production plan that we have talked about, and I’ll turn it over to Luciano in a minute, we do see release of more working capital in the second quarter and throughout the year. Luciano?

不過，基於我們已談過的生產計畫——我稍後會交給 Luciano——我們確實看到第二季以及全年會釋放更多營運資金。Luciano？

Okay. Sorry. Just to understand the dynamics, if we were not to curtail production, actually the increase in the price of sulfur and ammonia would have actually reduced that $300 million to $500 million release. Just for you to understand, we do have about 30 days of inventory of sulfur that equates to approximately 400,000 tonnes of sulfur. And there’s another 400,000 tonnes of sulfur in our finished goods inventory, usually give or take.

好的。抱歉。為了讓你理解這些動態，如果我們沒有縮減產量，硫磺與氨價格上漲其實會降低那 3 億到 5 億美元的釋放幅度。讓你理解一下，我們大約有 30 天的硫磺庫存，約等於 40 萬噸硫磺。而在我們的成品庫存中，通常還有另外約 40 萬噸硫磺，上下會有些差異。

So 800,000 tonnes of sulfur. If sulfur prices increase, for example, from $500 to $900 per tonne, you can see $400 times 800,000 tonnes gives you a headwind of about $300 million of working capital additional build. However, because of the curtailments, you should expect a more accelerated release of working capital, offsetting a little bit the effect of sulfur.

所以合計 80 萬噸硫磺。例如若硫磺價格從每噸 500 美元上升到 900 美元，你可以看到 400 美元乘以 80 萬噸，會帶來約 3 億美元的營運資金逆風、也就是額外的營運資金增加。然而，由於縮減產量，你應該預期營運資金釋放會更快，從而在一定程度上抵銷硫磺的影響。

Of course, because this curtailment will be temporary, it’s a little bit difficult to anticipate now what is going to be the actual release of working capital. But we see two opposing forces now. Increased raw material prices reducing the release that was mentioned in Q1, but the curtailment is actually increasing the release. So the $300 million to $500 million pretty much continues to be our estimate for release.

當然，因為這次減產將是暫時性的，所以現在要預估實際會釋放多少營運資金，確實有點困難。但我們目前看到兩股相反的力量。原物料價格上漲會降低我們在第一季提到的釋放幅度，但減產實際上會增加釋放。因此，3億至5億美元大致仍是我們對釋放金額的估計。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

Chris Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

Can you just talk a little bit about the US versus international dynamics? I mean, even with rising ammonia and sulfur prices, I mean, the prices in the international market continue to strengthen even as of this morning in India. And obviously, that hasn't been a huge focus over the last few years. But can you just talk about how you're thinking about the two, and probably perhaps more so the 3Q order book, and whether or not your production guidance for the second quarter assumes that sulfur is going to rise even further for the 3Q contract in terms of how you're thinking about second half dynamics as it relates to projected stripping margins.

你能否再多談一點美國與國際市場之間的動態差異？我的意思是，即便氨與硫磺價格上漲，國際市場的價格仍在走強，甚至今天早上在印度也是如此。而且顯然，過去幾年這並不是一個很大的關注焦點。但你能否談談你如何看待這兩者，或更可能是第三季的訂單簿；以及你對第二季的產量指引是否假設硫磺在第三季合約上還會進一步上漲——也就是你如何看待下半年動態，特別是與預期的剝離利差（stripping margins）相關的部分？

Yes, Chris, thanks. I think we're seeing it pretty similar to the way you've framed the question. International prices are garnering a premium over domestic North American prices. But besides that, we're just seeing demand not as active in the Americas as in international. We've positioned product, trying to be cognizant of the North American farmer needs. But until buying actually happens, we've been forced to pivot the international markets.

好的，Chris，謝謝。我想我們看到的情況與你提問的框架相當一致。國際價格相較北美國內價格呈現溢價。除此之外，我們也看到美洲的需求不如國際市場活躍。我們已先行配置產品，並試圖顧及北美農民的需求。但在實際採購尚未發生之前，我們被迫轉向國際市場。

And to your point, prices have been pretty good, but at today's input costs on sulfur and ammonia, even at the international prices going into Q3 and Q4, given an anticipated rise in sulfur price, we see stripping margins being in a place that may not make as much sense for us. So taking action today even though demand continues to be active in certain parts of Asia, and Jenny can talk more about that in just a minute, we've been forced because we can't get raw material in some jurisdictions. And then the price of that, that we can get in other jurisdictions simply have stripping margins beyond the place that we feel that we can reliably run.

而且如你所說，價格表現一直不錯，但以目前硫磺與氨的投入成本來看，即便以第三季與第四季的國際價格，加上預期硫磺價格還會上升，我們認為剝離利差可能落在對我們而言不那麼合理的水準。因此，即使亞洲某些地區的需求仍然活躍——Jenny 等一下也可以多談——我們今天仍採取行動，因為在某些司法管轄區我們拿不到原料。而在其他司法管轄區即使拿得到，其價格所對應的剝離利差也超出我們認為可以穩健運轉的範圍。

So we are making the decisions today to preserve more Q2 sulfur for longer, as Luciano was saying, and we'll have to make decisions in the future on what happens on the raw material front, and we'll have to watch what happens with net stripping margins worldwide. But we only have so much sulfur that we feel comfortable with to meet the needs of where we do see active production or active demand in any jurisdiction.

所以我們今天做出決策，是要把更多第二季的硫磺保留下來、延長使用時間，正如 Luciano 所說；而未來我們還得就原物料端的發展再做決策，並且必須觀察全球淨剝離利差的變化。但我們認為在任何司法管轄區，能夠滿足我們所看到的活躍生產或活躍需求的硫磺量，終究是有限的，而且我們只會在自己覺得安心的範圍內運用。

Jenny, do you want to talk a little bit about dynamics in the world?

Jenny，你要不要談一下全球的動態？

Yes. You see very quickly, Chris, the international demand is very strong, partially because of a very low inventory as we ended 2025, and that is the effect of continuous strong demand and restricted supply. And in the first quarter and also into the second quarter, it is particularly obvious in the market like India and also some other markets, like Pakistan, you will see it in some of the African countries like Ethiopia. Those governments, they provide support and the subsidies to their farmers. Therefore, you can see that the demand is much more active even with the price that we're talking about as for today.

好的。Chris，你會很快看到國際需求非常強勁，部分原因是我們在2025年底時庫存非常低，這是持續強勁需求與供給受限共同作用的結果。在第一季以及延伸到第二季，這在印度等市場特別明顯，還有其他一些市場，例如巴基斯坦；你也會在一些非洲國家看到，例如衣索比亞。這些政府會對農民提供支持與補貼。因此，即便在我們今天所談的價格水準下，你仍可看到需求明顯更為活躍。

And the latest Indian tender basically confirmed what we have assumed in the demand.

而最新的印度招標基本上也確認了我們對需求的假設。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

Kristen Owen，Oppenheimer。

Similar type of question. Appreciate the Q2 visibility that you provided and understanding that the world is very dynamic, maybe don't have as much visibility into the back half of the year. But maybe you could help us walk through the milestones that you are watching for the second half. What are the scenarios as you see them playing out today? And maybe ask you to emphasize particularly how you're viewing the market in Brazil here going into the second half of the year.

也是類似的問題。感謝你們提供第二季的能見度，也理解全球情勢非常動態，對於下半年可能沒有那麼高的能見度。但也許你們可以協助我們梳理一下，你們在觀察下半年時會關注哪些里程碑。以你們目前的看法，可能出現哪些情境？另外也想請你們特別強調一下，你們如何看待巴西市場在進入下半年時的狀況。

Yes. Thanks, Kristen. No doubt, things are murky on clarity of what's going to happen. So the things we are watching, obviously, as everyone is watching is what's happening on fluidity out of the Strait of Hormuz. Every day, there's a reaction, it seems like.

好的。謝謝，Kristen。毫無疑問，對於接下來會發生什麼，現在的清晰度相當不足。所以我們在觀察的事情，當然也跟大家一樣，是荷莫茲海峽的通行順暢度（fluidity）目前如何。看起來每天都會有反應。

So we're watching that. But what we'll be watching, assuming the conflict comes to some resolution in a near-term scenario is how quickly that fluidity gets back to normal, particularly for us on sulfur flows.

所以我們會持續觀察。但如果假設衝突在短期情境下能達成某種解決，我們接下來會觀察的是通行順暢度能多快恢復正常，尤其是對我們而言的硫磺流向。

Make no mistake, sulfur availability and subsequent affordability are the biggest things driving our view from a Mosaic standpoint on where we can participate and what we can produce to participate. That is the biggest driver of everything that we have done and continue to watch. So how quickly sulfur starts to get to more normalized levels from a cost standpoint and a fluidity standpoint are things we're going to watch.

毫無疑問，硫磺的可得性以及隨之而來的可負擔性，是從 Mosaic 的角度來看，驅動我們判斷「我們能參與哪些市場」以及「我們能生產多少以參與」的最重要因素。這是我們所做的一切、以及我們持續關注的一切的最大驅動因子。因此，硫磺在成本與通行順暢度兩方面，能多快回到較正常的水準，是我們將密切觀察的重點。

But I think in the big scheme, no matter how frustrating and dynamic the current situation is, these are temporary issues. And we got to look beyond this Persian Gulf unrest. Things will get back to normal at some point in time. The under application of fertilizer, particularly on phosphate and in Brazil, just difficult to getting all nutrients, particularly nitrogen and phosphate, is going to have a yield impact on the future crops.

但我認為從大局來看，不論目前情勢多麼令人挫折且變動劇烈，這些都是暫時性的問題。我們必須把視野放在這場波斯灣動盪之外。在某個時間點，一切都會回到正常。肥料施用不足，特別是磷肥在巴西的施用不足，以及取得所有養分（尤其是氮與磷）都很困難，將會對未來作物產量造成影響。

Yes, global grain and oilseed stock-to-use ratios sit in a not crisis mode today, but it doesn't take much to upset that 2% to 3%. And we see ag commodity prices actually being pressured in a good way on the upside where affordability concerns will get better for farmers in time, and that with the fluidity that will ultimately come for sulfur and other commodities in the fertilizer space coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, things will return. And we're making decisions on production curtailments today that we can quickly unwind and be flexible to come back with production when things, a, get more clear on what's going to happen with the raw materials and where will demand actually go. And b, as all of that starts to underline, we know that tailwinds will exist for nutrient demand, given the under application of phosphate that's going on, particularly in the Americas.

是的，全球穀物與油籽的庫存使用比目前並非處於危機模式，但要打破那2%到3%的緩衝其實不需要太多變化。而我們看到農產品價格其實在上行方面受到「良性」支撐，農民的可負擔性疑慮將隨時間改善；同時，隨著硫磺與其他肥料相關商品最終能更順暢地通過荷莫茲海峽，供應也會恢復。我們今天對產量所做的減產決策，未來可以很快解除，並在情勢更明朗時保持彈性、恢復生產——也就是（a）原物料會如何發展、以及需求實際會走向何處更清楚之後。以及（b）當這些因素逐步明朗時，我們知道養分需求會有順風存在，因為目前確實存在磷肥施用不足的情況，尤其是在美洲。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，JPMorgan。

I have a two-part question on raw materials. Your average ammonia prices were, I think, $626 a tonne in your phosphate segment? And you say in your script that 80% to 85% of your needs are met through production from Faustina. I thought Faustina was maybe 1/3 or 1/4? And the $626, call it, $626 number, like that's very close to prices for ammonia.

我有一個關於原物料的兩段式問題。你們磷肥部門的平均氨價格，我記得是每噸626美元？而你們在講稿中提到，你們80%到85%的需求由 Faustina 的產量供應。我原本以為 Faustina 可能只占1/3或1/4？而這個626美元——就叫它626——這個數字其實非常接近氨的市場價格。

I mean, those were higher prices than, what, CF or Nutrien realized. Why are the ammonia values as high as they are?

我的意思是，那些價格比什麼——CF 或 Nutrien 實現的價格還高。為什麼你們的氨價值會高到這種程度？

And then secondly in sulfur. Do we know how much sulfur are on ships that are behind -- that are currently blocked that would be released if the Straits opened?

第二個是關於硫磺。我們是否知道有多少硫磺在船上、被卡在後面——也就是目前被封鎖的——如果海峽開放就會被釋放出來？

Jeff, thanks. Let's just go back through on our ammonia just to set the table, 80% of our ammonia is either internally supplied or market advantaged strategic contracts. That puts us at 20% exposed to spot. But going into Q2, we did see sulfur -- ammonia prices rising on settled monthly contracts. And I think probably in quarter four, we had in the quarter when we had Faustina and some turnarounds.

Jeff，謝謝。我們先回頭把氨的情況再梳理一下以便鋪陳：我們的氨有80%是內部供應，或是透過具市場優勢的策略性合約取得。這使得我們有20%暴露在現貨市場。但進入第二季時，我們確實看到硫磺——以及氨——在已結算的月度合約上價格上升。我想大概在第四季，我們那一季遇到Faustina以及一些歲修。

So that affected the mix of sulfur. But on a normalized basis, roughly 30% comes from Faustina supply, again, depending on turnarounds and what's going on in any given quarter. And then the remaining up to 80% is better than market, much of which is natural gas tied contracts with producers. And then we're exposed to 20% on spot.

所以那影響了硫磺的組合。但在常態化基礎上，大約30%來自Faustina供應，同樣地，會視歲修以及每一季的具體情況而定。然後其餘最高到80%的部分是優於市場的條件，其中多數是與生產商簽訂、與天然氣掛鉤的合約。接著我們有20%暴露在現貨。

As far as sulfur goes and what is pent-up on ships behind the Strait of Hormuz, I don't think there is good visibility into that, Jeff. That definitely is something that we're going to have to watch intently as things are more normalized or resumed to whatever new normal is going to be. But make no mistake, there has been refinery damage due to the conflict in different parts of the Arab Gulf and how fast that's able to return to resume to normalized levels of supply are yet to be determined as well. So we know there will be some disruption, but getting fluidity back is key to seeing what we believe is a recovery and better participation.

至於硫磺，以及在荷姆茲海峽後方船上積壓了多少，我認為目前沒有很好的能見度，Jeff。這絕對是我們必須密切關注的事情，因為情勢會逐步常態化，或恢復到不論將會是什麼樣的「新常態」。但毋庸置疑，衝突已在阿拉伯灣不同地區造成煉油廠受損，而供應要多快才能恢復到常態水準也仍有待觀察。所以我們知道會有一些干擾，但讓流通恢復順暢是關鍵，才能看到我們所認為的復甦與更好的參與度。

Luciano has something to say.

Luciano有話要說。

Jeff, and for all, there is a big difference between the marginal cost of sulfur and ammonia for the marginal cargo, which drives our decisions at the margin and the average cost across our portfolio, and even the average cost across time because it takes time for prices to flow -- portfolio prices to flow through inventories. And so every decision that you're seeing us taking today is driven by the marginal cost of sulfur, which today is at $1,200 per tonne and the marginal cost of ammonia, give or take, let's say, $800 per tonne. So if you apply these marginal costs, for example, to the stripping margins that we realized in Q1, very quickly, you're going to see that the marginal stripping margin is below variable costs. So it doesn't even cover variable costs. So very important, not to separate marginal cost to average cost, which is going to be much more favorable even in Q2 because of our portfolio, because it takes time for raw materials to flow through inventories.

Jeff，還有各位，邊際貨物的硫磺與氨的邊際成本（這會驅動我們在邊際上的決策）與我們整體組合的平均成本之間有很大的差異，甚至也與跨時間的平均成本不同，因為價格傳導需要時間——組合價格需要時間才能透過庫存反映出來。因此，你們今天看到我們所做的每一個決策，都是由硫磺的邊際成本所驅動；而今天硫磺的邊際成本是每噸1,200美元，氨的邊際成本大約每噸800美元上下。所以如果你把這些邊際成本套用到我們第一季實現的剝離（stripping）利潤，很快你就會看到邊際剝離利潤低於變動成本。也就是說，甚至連變動成本都無法覆蓋。所以非常重要的是，不要把邊際成本與平均成本混為一談；平均成本會更有利，即使在第二季也是如此，因為我們的組合特性，以及原料需要時間才能透過庫存傳導。

So I just wanted to make that distinction.

我只是想做出這個區分。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

Matthew DeYoe，美國銀行。

I wanted to ask on potash a bit. I know mix changes a little bit, but we're running the third potential quarter here of FOB mine potash prices with a $260 on the low end would imply maybe on the lower end, just flat potash realizations for three quarters. Why isn't that lower end improving at all, just given what we've seen as it relates to market prices moving up? And then the 2Q potash shipments guidance may be a little bit weaker than I would have thought, and it's particularly in the general framework of 9 million tonnes, I guess, overall produced. Is that just maybe a difference between production and shipments because it would seem like it implies a fairly strong 2H shipment guidance, not crazy, but maybe considering the backdrop for the economics of the farmer in 2H, maybe a little bit heavier lift than we would have thought?

我想稍微問一下鉀肥（potash）。我知道產品組合會有些變化，但我們現在可能是連續第三個季度看到FOB礦山鉀肥價格區間低端在260美元，這可能意味著在較低端，鉀肥實現價格（realizations）三個季度都大致持平。為什麼低端完全沒有改善？尤其考量到我們看到市場價格在上升。另外，第二季鉀肥出貨量指引可能比我原先想的要弱一些，特別是在整體產量約900萬噸的框架下。這是否只是生產與出貨之間的差異？因為看起來它暗示下半年出貨指引會相當強勁，不至於誇張，但考量到下半年農民的經濟背景，可能比我們原先想的更吃力一些？

Yes. Thanks, Matthew. I'm going to turn it over to Jenny to answer the first part of your question. But let me while I'm on take the second part. I think one thing that perhaps people are missing in our guidance is that K-Mag is no longer in our potash guidance, which, depending on the quarter, could be around 150,000 tonnes, 175,000 tonnes.

是的。謝謝你，Matthew。我會把你問題的第一部分交給Jenny回答。但我先回答第二部分。我認為大家在我們的指引中可能忽略了一點：K-Mag已不再納入我們的鉀肥指引中；而K-Mag依季度不同，可能約為15萬噸到17.5萬噸。

So I think if you add that back in historically to the guidance that we gave, we're seeing pretty normal uptick rates in demand in our guidance number within North America and internationally.

所以我認為，如果把這部分按歷史口徑加回我們給出的指引，我們在北美與國際市場的需求上升幅度，在指引數字中其實相當正常。

In fact, Canpotex sold out through June, is on pace to set a new record potentially this year. And to your point, Matthew, that does mean a record second half shipments internationally out of Canpotex if that were to materialize, and then we see pretty much normalized North American shipments. So it is a heavier second half for potash shipments, but the guidance in Q2, fairly normal without K-Mag in there, which I think would appear that it's lower than what usually is because that math is not in there.

事實上，Canpotex的銷售已經排到6月滿檔，今年有望創下新紀錄。而如你所說，Matthew，如果真的實現，這意味著Canpotex在國際市場的下半年出貨將創紀錄；同時我們也看到北美出貨基本回到常態。所以鉀肥出貨確實是下半年較重，但第二季的指引在不含K-Mag的情況下相當正常；我想因為那部分的數學不在裡面，所以看起來會比通常更低。

Jenny, you want to talk about ASPs?

Jenny，你要談一下平均售價（ASP）嗎？

Yes. Matthew, let's start to the potash market. It's a stable and balanced market. The demand has been pretty strong, and the supply was keeping up. So the price that's why you're not seeing a major change on the bottom end of the GAAP guidance, one factor that I probably want to remind you is Canpotex is selling potash in a pretty big contract market, which is the same price for the full year.

好的。Matthew，我們先從鉀肥市場談起。這是一個穩定且供需平衡的市場。需求一直相當強勁，而供給也跟得上。因此你才不會在GAAP指引的低端看到明顯變化。另一個我想提醒你的因素是：Canpotex在一個相當大的合約市場中銷售鉀肥，而該合約價格是全年固定的。

The second part is they are certainly very far ahead of the delivery time, meaning Q2, most likely, most of the sales was made in probably in Q4 and into Q1. Since February 28, we have seen very strong price appreciation in the major spot market, including Brazil. And also, so that will reflect the selling price for -- and the netback for Canpotex in the following quarters. And lastly, I would say North America, over the spring lean season sales, we have seen very nice price bump due to this very strong demand by the US farmers.

第二點是，他們的交付時間確實大幅領先，也就是說第二季的多數銷售，很可能是在第四季以及第一季就已成交。自2月28日以來，我們在主要現貨市場（包括巴西）看到非常強勁的價格上漲。因此，這將在後續季度反映在Canpotex的售價——以及淨回收（netback）上。最後我想說的是，在北美春季淡季的銷售中，由於美國農民需求非常強勁，我們看到相當不錯的價格上調。

So that will be reflected in Q2 and also into Q3 in terms of the sales.

因此，這會在第二季以及第三季的銷售表現中反映出來。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

Lucas Beaumont，瑞銀。

Just going back to the phosphate volumes. So I mean the production there has been pretty steady for sort of three quarters of about 1.65 million tonnes. I mean you called out the further improvements in the underlying asset base sort of during the quarter.

我想回到磷酸鹽的銷量。也就是說，那邊的產量在大約三個季度都相當穩定，約為165萬噸。你提到本季在基礎資產方面還有進一步改善。

So I guess can you just frame for us exactly how much are you curtailing production into 2Q? I guess what would have the production been otherwise? And then as we look forward into the second half, I guess, one, if raw materials continue to be constrained how they are now, would you need to take production down further as we go into the third quarter? And is this helping or hurting your ability to get to that sort of 8 million tonne target over time? Is there any extra work you're going to do while things are down?

所以我想你能否幫我們框架一下：你們在第二季到底削減了多少產量？如果不削減，原本產量會是多少？然後展望下半年，如果原料仍像現在這樣受限，你們是否需要在第三季進一步下調產量？另外，這對你們長期達到約800萬噸目標的能力是有幫助還是有傷害？在停下來的期間，你們是否會做一些額外的工作？

Or is this going to sort of slow things down that way and maybe make the improvements over time?

還是說這會在那個方向上放慢進度，讓改善隨時間推進得更慢？

Lucas, I appreciate the question. Let me just start by we're disappointed that we have to make these actions because we are seeing great progress in quarter one. In fact, three of our -- three of the four facilities were at our target rate. With the fourth in New Wales, our biggest facility at was in turnaround. In fact, it was one of the longest and largest turnarounds that's been done in several years at New Wales just by nature of the scope of things that were up for scheduled turnaround timing.

Lucas，謝謝你的問題。我先說，我們對必須採取這些行動感到失望，因為我們在第一季其實看到很大的進展。事實上，我們四座設施中有三座達到我們的目標運轉率。第四座在New Wales——我們最大的設施——當時正在歲修。事實上，就工作範圍與排程歲修的性質而言，那是New Wales數年來最長、規模最大的一次歲修之一。

So we were very optimistic coming out of that, that we would have seen further improved rates. How much is this going to affect, it's impossible to answer precisely. But let me give you a little color of the magnitude of what the announcements are that we did make today. So Louisiana partial curtailment is about half of its production capacity at 1.4 million-ish tonnes of finished product capability and about half of Bartow's capacity at 2 million tonnes of annualized capacity.

因此，我們在那之後非常樂觀，認為本來會看到費率進一步改善。這會造成多大影響，無法精確回答。但讓我提供一些我們今天所做公告之規模的背景說明。路易斯安那的部分減產約為其產能的一半；其成品產能約為140萬噸左右；而巴托（Bartow）的年化產能200萬噸也約減少一半。

As I said and as we said in the prepared remarks, these are temporary matters that can be quickly unwound. And if we see things change on raw materials, we will quickly undo that. As far as doing more work during this down period, we were happy with where we were performing and we're anxious to see coming out of this New Wales turnaround how all four facilities were going to perform. Unfortunately, this situation is going to mute our ability to prove that and demonstrate that in the short term.

如我所說、也如我們在事先準備的發言中所提，這些都是暫時性的事項，可以很快解除。如果我們看到原物料情況改變，我們會迅速撤銷這些措施。至於在這段低迷期間做更多工作，我們對目前的營運表現感到滿意，也很期待在新威爾斯（New Wales）歲修結束後，看看四座設施的表現如何。不幸的是，這個情況會在短期內削弱我們證明並展示這一點的能力。

So we're going to continue to invest in the things that we need to invest in. But with the production curtailments, we have made some decisions on postponing some CapEx more, probably around waste due to the lack of production on gypsum stacks and clay settling areas that we can get away with, mostly gypsum stacks, and other time-sensitive things that this creates an opportunity on. So we've been diligent in looking at how to do that to match up with our current thoughts on production plans.

因此，我們會持續投資於我們需要投資的事項。但在減產之下，我們也做了一些決定，將部分資本支出（CapEx）延後，可能主要是與廢棄物相關、且因石膏堆場（gypsum stacks）與黏土沉降區（clay settling areas）產量不足而可暫緩的項目——多數是石膏堆場——以及其他具時間敏感性的事項；這個情況反而提供了調整時點的機會。因此，我們一直很審慎地評估如何這麼做，以配合我們目前對生產計畫的想法。

If this situation becomes protracted, and we don't see relief in sulfur price or net improvement in what we see as future realized stripping margins, we have more options that we are looking at and we'll execute on for further production curtailments. At the end of the day, if we don't see relief in stripping margins, however you want to calculate getting there, whether it's sulfur price, finished product price or some other way, we don't feel good about the margins that we have in this business to be a reliable supplier to what the world needs. So these are the difficult decisions that we are looking at day-to-day and watching what happens in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf specifically to see how we go from here.

如果這個情況拖延下去，而我們看不到硫磺價格的緩解，或我們對未來可實現的剝離利潤（stripping margins）沒有看到淨改善，我們還有更多選項正在評估，並會執行以進一步減產。歸根結底，如果我們看不到剝離利潤的改善——不論你想用什麼方式計算其形成因素，無論是硫磺價格、成品價格或其他方式——我們對這門業務的利潤水準不足以成為可靠供應商、滿足全球需求，感到不安。因此，這些是我們每天都在面對的艱難決策；我們也在觀察中東、尤其是波斯灣的情勢，來判斷接下來該如何走。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

Edlain Rodriguez，瑞穗（Mizuho）。

I mean this is for Bruce and Jenny also. I mean I think this is about affordability in phosphates. If prices go up too high, you might see demand deferral or demand disruption. But at the same time, the industry needs to raise prices to recover margins. What do you do?

我的意思是，這題也給Bruce和Jenny。我認為這關乎磷肥的可負擔性。如果價格漲得太高，你可能會看到需求延後或需求受干擾。但同時，產業又需要提高價格來恢復利潤。你們怎麼做？

Yes, Edlain, this is an unsustainable situation that we're in. And I think you highlight that well. Rarely, if ever, have we seen where stripping margins on the phosphate producer side are this compressed and farmer affordability at the same time being distressed, something has to give. And I think at $1,200 sulfur price, as an example, much, if not all, of the producer cost curve is underwater. And we're not immune to that.

是的，Edlain，我們目前所處的狀況不可持續。我認為你點得很到位。我們很少、甚至幾乎從未見過：磷肥生產端的剝離利潤被壓縮到如此程度，同時農民的可負擔性也承受壓力；總得有一方出現變化。以硫磺價格1,200美元為例，生產商成本曲線中很大一部分、甚至可能全部，都處於虧損狀態。而我們也無法置身事外。

So that's why I believe you're seeing curtailments happen throughout the globe. That's why it's happening within Mosaic is because this sulfur price is unsustainable given the other cost of raw materials. And given the net stripping margin that we see boxed in by probably farmer affordability given current ag commodity prices.

所以我認為你看到全球各地都在減產。Mosaic內部也在發生同樣的事，因為在其他原物料成本同樣偏高的情況下，這樣的硫磺價格不可持續。再加上我們看到的淨剝離利潤，可能受到農民可負擔性的限制——在目前農產品價格水準下——而被框住。

As I said, what gives in the future and why we remain optimistic that this is a temporary issue and things will revert. At some point in time, the Strait of Hormuz will open up. At some point in time, the fluidity of sulfur will get better and improve. The nutrient removal last year, the lack of application in fall and spring this year net-net for crop year is going to be significant, and yield response will show up. We're already seeing ag commodity prices in whole since the beginning of the year rise.

如我所說，未來會如何變化、以及為何我們仍樂觀認為這是暫時性問題、情況會回歸常態。在某個時間點，荷姆茲海峽（Strait of Hormuz）會重新開放。在某個時間點，硫磺的流通性會變得更好並改善。去年養分被移除、而今年秋季與春季施用不足，合計對作物年度而言將是顯著的，產量對施肥的反應會顯現出來。我們也已經看到，自年初以來整體農產品價格上升。

Jenny can talk more about that. Corn and soybeans not as fast as some of the others.

Jenny可以再多談一些。玉米和黃豆的漲勢沒有其他一些品項那麼快。

But this is likely what's going to happen in the future. It will improve farmer affordability. Hopefully, you see improvements on raw material costs that go into phosphate, net of net, a much more healthy environment at whatever new sustained level that is. But we see stripping margins actually getting back to something much more healthy once we get beyond this temporary issue. And remember, even before this Persian Gulf conflict, phosphate was tight.

但這很可能就是未來會發生的事。它會改善農民的可負擔性。也希望你能看到磷肥所需原物料成本的改善；綜合來看，會形成一個更健康的環境，不論新的可持續水準落在何處。但我們認為，一旦度過這個暫時性問題，剝離利潤會回到更健康的水準。而且請記得，即使在這場波斯灣衝突之前，磷肥供應就已經偏緊。

It was driving demand destruction just because there wasn't enough supply. It's only been further exacerbated by this with a boxed in barrier of farmer affordability, and that's mostly in the Americas. But we are seeing, to Jenny's point, participation in other areas, particularly in Asia, where government policy and subsidies and things like that help keep things moving.

當時僅僅因為供應不足，就已經在推動需求被破壞（demand destruction）。而這次事件又進一步惡化；同時又受到農民可負擔性的上限所限制，這主要發生在美洲地區。但如Jenny所說，我們也看到其他地區的參與度，特別是在亞洲，政府政策、補貼等因素有助於讓市場持續運轉。

But again, eventually, things will revert back. More likely, ag commodity prices will be better, given the need for nutrient replenishment and the fact that yields will be impacted due to lack of fertilizer application over this past six months. And we remain optimistic that the fundamentals will return, and we're going to be positioned in a good place to capitalize on that with our production that's returning and the raw material supply and agreements that we have, we think, in the long run, still advantage us more than others.

但再一次，最終情況會回歸常態。更可能的是，農產品價格會更好，因為需要補回養分，而且過去六個月施肥不足將影響產量。我們仍然樂觀認為基本面會回來；而隨著我們的產量恢復，以及我們擁有的原物料供應與協議，我們認為長期而言，這些仍將使我們比其他人更具優勢，並能在那時處於有利位置加以把握。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場（BMO Capital Markets）。

This is Evan on for Joel. I just want to ask about Fertilizantes. Obviously, for the guidance for Q2. And usually, Q2 is much higher earnings than Q1. If you wouldn't mind outlining the puts and takes in Brazil for Q2, please?

我是代Joel提問的Evan。我想問一下Fertilizantes。顯然是關於第二季（Q2）的指引。通常第二季的獲利會比第一季（Q1）高很多。如果方便的話，請說明一下巴西第二季的利多與利空因素？

Yes. Thanks, Evan. I'll probably turn it over to Luciano and Jenny to provide some commentary. But no doubt, there's uncertainty. Hence, why we pulled our recent practice of providing some type of indication on EBITDA for the segment.

好的。謝謝你，Evan。我可能會把問題交給Luciano和Jenny來補充一些評論。但毫無疑問，存在不確定性。因此我們才取消了近期慣例中、對該事業部提供某種EBITDA指引的做法。

But with the lack of ability to get sulfur into our production facilities, that's one contributing factor. But Brazil, in general, has to import all of -- much of their nutrient needs for fertilizer blends that go to the farm. Lack of nitrogen, lack of phosphate and the uncertainty of when those things resume to more normal levels is why we pulled that guidance -- why we is why we pulled that guidance because there is just lack of certainty.

但由於無法把硫磺運進我們的生產設施，這是其中一個影響因素。此外，巴西整體而言必須進口其肥料混配（blends）所需、供應到農場的所有——或很大一部分——養分需求。氮肥短缺、磷肥短缺，以及不確定這些何時能恢復到較正常水準，正是我們撤回該指引的原因——我們之所以撤回該指引，是因為確實缺乏確定性。

Now before they get into the details, we're still very bullish on long-term outlook in Brazil. Again, Mosaic has positioned ourselves, our strategy, we still believe in that we will be there with our assets, particularly on the blending side to grow as that market grows. But 2026 is likely going to be a contraction in fertilizer use in Brazil just due to the sheer fact that nutrient availability is not there.

在他們進入細節之前，我們對巴西的長期展望仍非常看多。同樣地，Mosaic已經做好布局；我們仍相信我們的策略，也相信我們會憑藉資產——特別是在混配端——隨著市場成長而成長。但2026年巴西的肥料使用量很可能會收縮，原因很單純：養分供應量不足。

Jenny? Luciano?

Jenny？Luciano？

A few reasons why Q1 performance was a little better. First, distribution margins surprise on the upside. And I'd say they tend to continue to improve because with actually less volume to sell, you can actually target your better customers. So distribution margins tend to increase. A little bit of pricing better than we expected in Q1.

第一季表現稍微好一些有幾個原因。第一，通路（distribution）利潤率優於預期。而且我會說，這種情況往往會持續改善，因為當可銷售的量更少時，你反而可以鎖定更好的客戶。因此通路利潤率往往會上升。另外，第一季的定價也比我們預期的稍好一些。

And also the appreciation of the Brazilian real has a short-term impact on some of our payables, especially the distribution payables in equal parts, these three things explained the surprise and the upside for results.

此外，巴西雷亞爾升值也會在短期內影響我們部分應付帳款，尤其是分銷應付帳款，這三件事解釋了業績的意外表現以及優於預期的上行。

Looking forward to Q2, we do have parts of our portfolio of sales that are profitable in, I would say, in any environment. So part of sulfuric acid that we produce, it's tied into cost-plus contracts. We also produced DCP, which is a product that goes into animal nutrition, which has much higher, I would say, willingness to pay. It's a much smaller percentage of the cost structure of these customers. But the commodity products, SSP is in a very bad place right now.

展望第二季，我們的銷售組合中確實有一部分，我會說在任何環境下都能獲利。因此，我們生產的部分硫酸是與成本加成（cost-plus）合約綁定的。我們也生產 DCP，這是一種用於動物營養的產品，其支付意願要高得多。對這些客戶而言，它在成本結構中所占比例小得多。但大宗商品產品方面，SSP 目前處於非常糟糕的狀況。

And even the MAP and DAP products, as I indicated, with marginal stripping margins are in a bad place. So put all of this together, very hard to predict where we're going to land in Q2.

即便是 MAP 和 DAP 產品，如我所指出的，在邊際剝離利潤（stripping margins）下也處於不佳狀況。把這些因素綜合起來，要預測我們第二季會落在哪個水準非常困難。

The data point For Brazil market. Bruce mentioned, we're likely going to see a decline of the shipment in Brazil. A big part of the reason is the availability of the new trains. And Brazil needs to import 85% of NPK that the country needs. And the first four months, especially April, we saw reduction of the input, especially on nitrogen and phosphate.

關於巴西市場的數據點。Bruce 提到，我們很可能會看到巴西出貨量下滑。其中一個重要原因是新一輪（new trains）的供應可得性。而巴西需要進口該國所需 NPK 的 85%。在前四個月，尤其是四月，我們看到投入量下降，特別是在氮肥與磷肥方面。

The in-country inventory is extremely low for all the new trains and the (inaudible) phosphate is unlikely going to be -- the shipment is unlikely going to be catching up given the low availability in the international market. So that is also the reason that we are not really giving guidance, given so much uncertainties.

國內庫存對所有新一輪（new trains）而言都極低，而（聽不清）磷酸鹽不太可能——在國際市場供應可得性偏低的情況下，出貨量也不太可能追上。因此，鑑於不確定性如此之多，這也是我們不真正提供指引的原因。

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

Duffy Fischer，高盛。

Just two quick questions. One, what's going to be the cost impact of running the phosphate segment at the lower operating rates in Q2, either in absolute or on a per unit basis? And then the second one, I just want to double check, your base expectation is still that working capital generates at least $300 million of positive cash flow with the puts and takes? Did I hear that right?

兩個簡短問題。第一，在第二季以較低的開工率運行磷酸鹽事業部，成本影響會是什麼（無論是絕對金額或按單位計）？第二，我只是想再確認一下，你們的基本預期仍是營運資金在各項增減因素（puts and takes）之下至少帶來 3 億美元的正向現金流？我聽得沒錯吧？

Yes, Duffy. I'm going to just turn it over to Luciano to address that.

是的，Duffy。我把問題交給 Luciano 來回應。

Starting by the second question, yes, the expectation continues to be there. As I laid out two opposing force is raw materials tending to push this down, but curtailments tending to push this up. On the cost impact, we actually were aiming at getting close to $105 per tonne conversion cost in phosphates before the curtailments -- I'm sorry, $90 per tonne before the curtailments, which is actually significant. It's below actually the range we gave in Investor Day last year. But with the curtailments, if they continue, it's probably going to land at $105, $110, so it's not going to be much lower than $110.

先從第二個問題開始，是的，這個預期仍然成立。如我所說，有兩股相反的力量：原物料傾向把它往下拉，但減產（curtailments）傾向把它往上推。至於成本影響，我們在減產之前其實目標是把磷酸鹽的轉換成本做到接近每噸 105 美元——抱歉，是減產前每噸 90 美元，這其實相當顯著。這也低於我們去年投資人日所給的區間。但若減產持續，可能會落在 105 到 110 美元左右，因此不太可能低於 110 美元太多。

And it's going to be driven mostly by better performance at New Wales, again, most of the tonnes come from there after turnarounds, operating rates going up. So even with the curtailments, we see cost per tonne coming down.

而這主要會由 New Wales 的更佳表現所驅動；同樣地，大多數噸數在歲修後都來自那裡，開工率上升。因此即便有減產，我們仍看到每噸成本下降。

I mean it is hard to predict what's going to happen beyond Q2, and I know your question was more on the Q2 side. But that's why we're doing everything we can to control the things we can control with looking at CapEx, looking at another round of cost savings, the $50 million we talked around for support function costs. That adds to an already $100 million target. So controlling the things we can control are the things we're going to focus on to continue to remain as cash positive as we can given this difficult time.

我的意思是，很難預測第二季之後會發生什麼，我也知道你的問題更偏向第二季。但這就是為什麼我們會盡一切所能去控制我們能控制的事情：檢視資本支出（CapEx）、再推動一輪成本節省，也就是我們提到的支援職能成本 5,000 萬美元。這是在既有 1 億美元目標之上再加的。因此，在這段艱難時期，我們會聚焦於控制可控事項，盡可能維持正向現金流。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

Mike Sison，富國銀行。

Just when you think about phosphate volumes in 2Q, you gave us guidance for that. If nothing really changes, is that sort of the level base case we should think about for the third quarter? And then, I guess, similar with Fertilizantes, you didn't give us specific volume guidance. But whatever you end up doing in the second quarter, is that a base case heading into the third until everything gets better?

談到第二季的磷酸鹽銷量，你們給了我們相關指引。如果沒有任何實質變化，第三季我們是否可以把它視為某種基準情境（base case）的水準？另外，我想 Fertilizantes 也類似，你們沒有給具體的銷量指引。但無論你們第二季最後做到多少量，是否在一切好轉之前，第三季都可以把它當作基準情境？

Sorry, we had a problem here. What was your first part of your question?

抱歉，我們這邊出了點問題。你問題的第一部分是什麼？

Mr. Sison, did you mute your phone?

Sison 先生，您把電話靜音了嗎？

No. Yes. My question was for phosphate. And if the 2Q volumes come in as is, is that the base case for the third quarter? And similarly for Fertilizantes, is that whatever volumes you come in into the second, is that the base case into the third until conditions improve?

沒有。有。我的問題是關於磷酸鹽。如果第二季的銷量如目前所示，那是否就是第三季的基準情境？同樣地，對 Fertilizantes 而言，你們第二季最後的銷量是否就是第三季的基準情境，直到市場狀況改善？

Yes, Mike, thanks. Really, that's why we not -- we pulled guidance is we don't feel comfortable being able to give you a forecast on that. I could say it could go either way, to be quite honest, depending on if somebody could say this conflict ends in the Persian Gulf and fluidity gets back to normal within 60 days. I'm just picking a scenario that would probably improve things for us. If it became protracted beyond Memorial Day -- or what's that, Labor Day, sorry, and went on further, we're going to be struggling with this for longer.

是的，Mike，謝謝。其實這就是我們撤回指引的原因——我們不覺得自己能夠有把握地給你一個預測。老實說，我可以說兩種方向都有可能，取決於例如有人可能會說波斯灣的衝突結束，且在 60 天內流通性恢復正常。我只是舉一個可能對我們有利、能改善情況的情境。如果它拖延到陣亡將士紀念日之後——或那是什麼，勞動節，抱歉——並且繼續延長，我們就會更長時間地在這種狀況下掙扎。

And it could actually be even more dramatic as sulfur availability is even more curtailed than what we currently may be thinking about. So again, it comes down to affordability of sulfur that if you can find it, what's its supportability going to be? But more specifically, is it even available?

而且情況甚至可能更劇烈，因為硫磺的可得性可能比我們目前所想的還要更受限。所以再一次，關鍵在於硫磺的可負擔性：即便你找得到，它的可支撐性（supportability）會是什麼？但更具體地說，它到底是否有貨可供？

Just a correction. I mentioned $110 to $105. This is more a second half cost profile than a Q2. Q2 is going to be somewhere in between what you saw this quarter and the second half numbers.

更正一下。我提到的 110 到 105 美元。這比較是下半年成本輪廓，而不是第二季。第二季會介於你們本季看到的水準與下半年數字之間。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bruce Bodine for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Bruce Bodine，請他做任何結語。

Well, thanks, everyone. To conclude our call, I'd like to take the long view, as we've talked about today. Yes, the current environment is challenging for the phosphate industry. At Mosaic, we're doing everything we can to weather the storm without sacrificing our ability to benefit when business conditions improve, and it will improve. Raw material prices are at unsustainable levels, and they will come down once global trade flows resume.

好的，謝謝各位。在結束我們的電話會議之前，我想採取長期視角，正如我們今天所談的。是的，目前的環境對磷酸鹽產業而言充滿挑戰。在 Mosaic，我們正盡一切所能在不犧牲未來受益於景氣改善能力的前提下度過風暴，而景氣會改善。原物料價格處於不可持續的水準，一旦全球貿易流恢復，它們就會下來。

But more importantly, the long-term phosphate supply and demand picture has not changed. Phosphate supply is very tight now and will remain tight when more normal economic conditions resume. We've built Mosaic to be resilient, and we're demonstrating that resilience now. Our improved asset reliability, extensive market access, diversified business, and strong financial foundation will allow Mosaic to thrive in better markets.

但更重要的是，磷酸鹽長期供需格局並未改變。目前磷酸鹽供應非常吃緊，而在更正常的經濟狀況恢復後仍將維持緊俏。我們打造 Mosaic 使其具備韌性，而我們現在正展現這種韌性。我們提升的資產可靠度、廣泛的市場觸及、分散的業務，以及強健的財務基礎，將使 Mosaic 在更好的市場中茁壯成長。

So thank you for joining our call, and have a great day.

因此，感謝各位參加我們的電話會議，祝各位有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。