美盛公司 (MOS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Mosaic Company's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) And now I'll turn the call over to Mr. Jason Tremblay. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 Mosaic Company 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在我將把電話轉給 Jason Tremblay 先生。請繼續。

Thank you and welcome to our second-quarter 2025 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial, will then cover the market update; and Luciano Siani Pires, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, who will review the financial results and capital allocation progress. We will then open the floor for questions. We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results.

謝謝您，歡迎參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。總裁兼執行長 Bruce Bodine 將致開幕詞；隨後，商務執行副總裁 Jenny Wang 將介紹市場最新動態；執行副總裁兼財務長 Luciano Siani Pires 將回顧財務結果和資本配置進度。然後我們將開始回答問題。我們將在本次電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明包括但不限於有關未來財務和經營結果的聲明。

They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

它們基於管理層截至今天的信念和期望，並受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。我們昨天發布的新聞稿和向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中列出了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述大不相同的因素。我們也將介紹某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的新聞稿和績效數據也包含有關這些非公認會計準則指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce.

現在我想把電話轉給布魯斯。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call. I'll start with an overview of our performance and outlook, then Jenny will provide insight into the markets, and Luciano will discuss details of our earnings. Our key messages for today are: First, our hard work to improve operating performance is paying off. It's apparent in our Brazil results, and we expect to see improvements in our US phosphate production business now that the vast majority of our work to enhance reliability is complete.

早安.感謝您參加我們的電話會議。我將首先概述我們的業績和前景，然後珍妮將提供對市場的見解，盧西亞諾將討論我們的收益細節。我們今天要傳達的關鍵訊息是：首先，我們為提高經營績效所做的努力正在獲得回報。這在我們巴西的業績中很明顯，我們預計美國磷酸鹽生產業務將會有所改善，因為我們提高可靠性的大部分工作已經完成。

Second, the market environment remains strong with tight supply leading to very strong phosphate margins and rising potash prices. In fact, we raised our full year potash production to capture strong demand. Third, the cost reduction efforts we've been pursuing in Brazil have led to a strong first half of the year. and we expect earnings growth to accelerate in the remainder of 2025.

其次，市場環境依然強勁，供應緊張導致磷酸鹽利潤非常高，鉀肥價格上漲。事實上，我們提高了全年鉀肥產量以滿足強勁的需求。第三，我們在巴西推行的成本削減措施使得今年上半年業績表現強勁。我們預計 2025 年剩餘時間的獲利成長將會加速。

And fourth, our extensive market access continues to be a key competitive advantage for Mosaic. The current market situation demonstrates this point with some unevenness in the Americas, there is still more than enough demand around the world for all the tons we can produce. We have the agility to send tons to markets where demand is strongest. To cover our second quarter results, we generated net income of $411 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million compared with a net loss of $162 million and adjusted EBITDA of $584 million in the same quarter of 2024. The factors that drove earnings lower are behind us.

第四，我們廣泛的市場准入仍然是 Mosaic 的關鍵競爭優勢。當前的市場狀況證明了這一點，儘管美洲市場存在一些不平衡，但對於我們能夠生產的所有噸數，全球的需求仍然綽綽有餘。我們可以靈活地將大量產品運送到需求最旺盛的市場。為了彌補第二季的業績，我們實現了 4.11 億美元的淨收入和 5.66 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，而 2024 年同期的淨虧損為 1.62 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 5.84 億美元。導致獲利下降的因素已經過去了。

And across the business, we are poised for a strong second half of 2025. Potash and phosphate markets are tight, and we are maximizing production to benefit fully. We see no signs of a second half price reset that has occurred in the past few years. The global phosphate market has been tight for two years now. And we do not expect that to change in the near to medium term even with the additional supply we expect to provide to the market. All of the supply and demand dynamics we've been discussing remain in effect.

就整個業務而言，我們已準備好迎接 2025 年下半年的強勁成長。鉀肥和磷酸鹽市場緊張，我們正在最大限度地提高產量以充分獲益。我們沒有看到過去幾年中第二次半價重置的跡象。全球磷酸鹽市場已經緊張了兩年。即使我們預計將向市場提供額外的供應，我們也不認為這種情況在中短期內會改變。我們一直在討論的所有供需動態仍然有效。

While China recently resumed exports at a low level, Chinese exports remain restricted as producers there meet domestic demand for agriculture and growing demand for industrial uses. Global farmer demand for phosphate fertilizers remains robust. As an example, Indian importers have come back to the market with increased government support and are now working to meet two years' worth of pent-up demand.

儘管中國近期恢復了低水準出口，但由於國內生產商要滿足國內農業需求和日益增長的工業用途需求，中國的出口仍受到限制。全球農民對磷肥的需求依然強勁。例如，印度進口商在政府加強支持後重返市場，目前正努力滿足兩年來的被壓抑的需求。

Also, remember, there is not much additional capacity that is expected to come to the market over the next few years and announced projects take quite some time to come online. Put simply, there is not enough phosphate fertilizer available to meet demand, and we expect this dynamic to continue well into 2026 even if there is some demand deferral in the Americas.

另外請記住，預計未來幾年不會有太多的額外產能進入市場，而且宣布的項目需要相當長的時間才能上線。簡而言之，磷肥供應不足以滿足需求，我們預計這種狀況將持續到 2026 年，即使美洲的需求有所延遲。

In our business, our work to fortify our US phosphate assets to maximize future production took longer than we expected but there is no more planned maintenance that would impede us from reaching our target run rate of 8 million tons per year. To provide more detail, our extraordinary level of work is complete at Riverview in Louisiana. Our Bartow plant has been operating at target rates for a couple of months. And in New Wales, where installation of our final new gypsum pumping station was delayed.

在我們的業務中，我們為加強美國磷酸鹽資產以最大限度提高未來產量所做的工作比我們預期的要長，但是沒有更多的計劃維護會阻礙我們達到每年 800 萬噸的目標運行率。更詳細地說，我們在路易斯安那州 Riverview 的非凡工作已經完成。我們的巴托工廠已經以目標產能運作了幾個月。在新威爾斯州，我們最後一座新石膏泵站的安裝被推遲了。

All three new stations are complete. We are now returning to our normal cycle for turnarounds. Our third quarter sales volume guidance of 1.8 million to 2 million tons reflects our confidence in our strengthened assets. Our annual guidance for phosphate production is now 6.9 million to 7.2 million tons, reflecting the more extensive maintenance downtime we experienced in June and July. It's also important to note that as our volumes improve, so do our unit costs, we expect to reach our Analyst Day per ton cost targets later this year.

三個新車站均已竣工。我們現在正在恢復正常的周轉週期。我們第三季的銷售量預期為 180 萬至 200 萬噸，這反映了我們對增強資產的信心。我們對磷酸鹽年產量的指導目前為 690 萬噸至 720 萬噸，這反映了我們在 6 月和 7 月經歷的更大範圍的維護停工。值得注意的是，隨著產量的提高，我們的單位成本也在增加，我們預計將在今年稍後達到分析師日每噸成本目標。

In potash, the market has evolved from balanced to tight. Maintenance activities at multiple producers around the world have reduced near-term supply and demand remains strong, underpinned in part by continuing high palm oil prices in Southeast Asia. We are running hard to meet demand and benefit from the market conditions. The second quarter turnaround at Esterhazy is complete and we plan to run our Colonsay mine at least through the end of this year. As a result and to meet very strong global demand, we have increased our annual potash production guidance to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tonnes.

鉀肥市場已從平衡轉為緊張。全球多家生產商的維護活動減少了短期供應，但需求仍然強勁，部分原因是東南亞棕櫚油價格持續高漲。我們正在努力滿足需求並從市場條件中獲益。埃斯特哈齊 (Esterhazy) 礦場第二季度的扭虧為盈工作已經完成，我們計劃至少運營科隆賽 (Colonsay) 礦場到今年年底。因此，為了滿足全球強勁的需求，我們將年度鉀肥產量預期提高至 930 萬噸至 950 萬噸。

We're feeling very good about our business in Brazil, too. While credit issues are persisting, we expect fertilizer demand to remain strong and supply limited. As a result, we anticipate EBITDA from the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment to push higher from the strong levels we've seen in the past two quarters. Before Jenny provides more details on the markets, I'd like to highlight the important competitive advantage our market access brings to Mosaic. The new Palmeirante facility, which was inaugurated last month, adds 1 million tons of distribution capacity in the fast-growing northern region and reinforces our market-leading presence in the country.

我們對在巴西的業務也感到非常滿意。儘管信貸問題仍然存在，但我們預計化肥需求將保持強勁，供應將有限。因此，我們預計 Mosaic Fertilizantes 部門的 EBITDA 將比過去兩季的強勁水平更高。在 Jenny 提供更多有關市場的細節之前，我想強調一下我們的市場准入為 Mosaic 帶來的重要競爭優勢。上個月落成的全新 Palmeirante 工廠為快速發展的北部地區增加了 100 萬噸的配送能力，並鞏固了我們在該國的市場領先地位。

We also continue to leverage our market access to grow the Mosaic Biosciences business. First half revenues for Biosciences more than doubled compared with a year ago. We expect Mosaic Biosciences to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA beginning in the fourth quarter. Finally, a note on capital allocation. We're continuing to make progress on our work to reclaim capital so that we can deploy it in pursuit of better returns.

我們也將繼續利用我們的市場准入來發展 Mosaic Biosciences 業務。生物科學部門上半年的營收與去年同期相比成長了一倍多。我們預計 Mosaic Biosciences 將從第四季度開始對調整後的 EBITDA 做出積極貢獻。最後，關於資本配置的說明。我們正在繼續推進資本回收工作，以便我們能夠利用資本來追求更好的回報。

The hydrofloat project and the new Palmeirante facility are good examples of this. We hope to have news on the processes we've announced, including Carlsbad and Taquari in the near future. At the same time, we are expecting stronger free cash flow in the second half of the year, which would allow us to pay down debt and return capital to shareholders. All in all, we have made important and substantial progress this year and we are in excellent position for a very strong second half of 2025. Now I'll pass the call to Jenny.

水力浮標計畫和新的 Palmeirante 設施就是很好的例子。我們希望在不久的將來獲得有關我們已宣布的流程（包括卡爾斯巴德和塔誇裡）的最新消息。同時，我們預計下半年自由現金流將更加強勁，這將使我們能夠償還債務並向股東返還資本。總而言之，我們今年取得了重要而實質的進展，並為 2025 年下半年的強勁發展做好了充分準備。現在我將把電話轉給珍妮。

Bruce highlighted strong fertilizer market fundamentals. Before I dive deeper into the phosphate and potash market, I'd like to address the recent pressure on ag commodities and why we are still up on global agriculture. Commodity market has been pressured by both trade and macro uncertainties, as well as the record safrinha harvest in Brazil and the potential for a record US crop this fall. However, as we mentioned before, Ag fundamentals remain positive across much of the world, including in many of the key geographies where we operate.

布魯斯強調了強勁的化肥市場基本面。在深入探討磷酸鹽和鉀肥市場之前，我想先談談近期農產品面臨的壓力，以及為何我們仍關注全球農業。大宗商品市場受到貿易和宏觀不確定性的壓力，以及巴西創紀錄的第二季大豆產量和今年秋季美國創紀錄的產量潛力。然而，正如我們之前提到的，全球大部分地區的農業基本面依然良好，包括我們經營的許多主要地區。

Global Ag market continuously to be supported by strong demand including support of new biofuel policies in India, Brazil, Indonesia and the US, which supports ag market in the long run. The headwinds we see in certain geographies related to fertilizer affordability will necessarily train some demand, for example, in Americas, but this provides a tailwind to demand in the future. as growers will need to replenish their soil nutrients. Specifically on phosphate, prices have steadily climbed this year with a strong demand that is constrained by supply. And despite higher prices and the lack of available supply that may result in some demand deferral, global shipments are expected to approach a new record.

全球農業市場持續受到強勁需求的支撐，包括印度、巴西、印尼和美國的新生物燃料政策的支持，這將為農業市場帶來長期支持。我們在某些​​地區看到的與化學肥料可負擔性相關的阻力必然會刺激一些需求，例如在美洲，但這為未來的需求提供了順風，因為種植者需要補充土壤養分。尤其是磷酸鹽，由於需求旺盛而供應受限，今年價格穩定上漲。儘管價格上漲和供應不足可能導致部分需求延遲，但全球出貨量預計仍將創下新高。

The most notable factor on supply side remains China, which have returned seasonally to the export market, though we anticipate a further reduction in high-analysis phosphate export this year. As the country limits export quarters in support of the domestic market and industrial phosphate production. On the demand side, government financial support has energized Indian buying at higher prices. While we expect growth in India shipments this year, supply constraints will likely leave India face another year of pent-up demand that bodes well as we move towards 2026. In North America, summer fill was earlier than expected, given the empty pipeline and fewer imports were largely sold out for the quarter and at higher values than spring season.

供應方面最值得注意的因素仍然是中國，中國已季節性回歸出口市場，儘管我們預計今年高濃度磷酸鹽出口將進一步減少。由於該國限制出口以支持國內市場和工業磷酸鹽生產。在需求方面，政府的財政支持激發了印度以更高價格購買的熱情。雖然我們預計今年印度的出貨量將會成長，但供應限制可能會導致印度面臨另一年被壓抑的需求，這對我們邁向 2026 年來說是一個好兆頭。在北美，由於管道空置，夏季填充時間早於預期，且進口量較少，本季基本售罄，且價值高於春季。

Import supply is down around 20% year-over-year, given tariffs on most of the oranges and these volumes are expected to stay subdued. This means that even there is meaningful demand deferral at the grower level this fall, there should be ample demand for Mosaic's products. While in Brazil, we are expecting another fertile shipment record this year, with inputs up sharply in the first half to meet the demand. With no significant price reset expected in the near term, we expect stripping margins to remain elevated as sulfur prices appears to have stabilized and ammonia looks like it could soften through the balance of the year. Longer term, we anticipate elevated stripping margin will continue as solid fundamentals carry into next year.

由於大多數柳橙都要徵收關稅，進口供應量較去年同期下降約 20%，預計進口量將保持低迷。這意味著，即使今年秋季種植者層面的需求大幅下降，Mosaic 產品的需求仍然足夠。而在巴西，我們預期今年的出貨量將再創佳績，上半年投入將大幅增加，以滿足需求。由於短期內價格不會大幅調整，我們預計剝離利潤率將保持在較高水平，因為硫磺價格似乎已經穩定，而氨價格似乎可能會在今年餘下時間裡走軟。從長期來看，隨著穩固的基本面延續到明年，我們預計剝離利潤率將持續上升。

As I mentioned, we like to again see pent-up demand as we enter 2026 driven by demand deferral this year and limited channel inventories. On the supply side, New capacity takes time to build and won't feature meaningfully until at least 2027. On top of this, we expect China to continue to reduce export availability as independent projection for LFP demand through 2030 exceed even our own projection. In the case of potash, the market shifted from balanced to tight in the first half of this year, and we anticipate prices to hold around current levels, driven by what could again be a record global shipment. Global supply is now filling the effects of the announced maintenance in Russia and Belarus, the slowdown in louse expansion and lower production from China and Chili.

正如我所提到的，我們希望在進入 2026 年時再次看到被壓抑的需求，這是由於今年需求延遲和渠道庫存有限所致。在供應方面，新產能需要時間來建設，至少要到 2027 年才會產生重大影響。除此之外，我們預計中國將繼續減少出口量，因為對 2030 年 LFP 需求的獨立預測甚至超過了我們自己的預測。就鉀肥而言，今年上半年市場從平衡轉為緊張，我們預計價格將維持在當前水平，因為全球出貨量可能再次創下紀錄。全球供應目前正在承受俄羅斯和白俄羅斯宣布的維護、蝨子擴散放緩以及中國和智利產量下降的影響。

Regarding demand, US customers indicate it will be about normal for full season despite prices that are higher than last year, given they still find good value at these levels. like phosphate, offshore potash imports are also trading last year, further tightening the domestic market. Brazilian demand has also proved resilient in this higher-priced environment, with inventories near normal despite higher input so far this year. Finally, annual contract in China and India was signed about $65 per ton higher than last year.

至於需求，美國客戶表示，儘管價格高於去年，但整個季節的需求將基本正常，因為他們仍認為目前的水平具有良好的價值。與磷酸鹽一樣，去年海外鉀肥進口量也在成長，這進一步收緊了國內市場。在這種高價環境下，巴西的需求也表現出了韌性，儘管今年迄今投入較高，但庫存接近正常水準。最終，中國和印度簽署的年度合約比去年高出約65美元/噸。

With this expected healthy baseload of contract market offtake plus a continued strong pull from Southeast Asia, where solid grower economics are supported by elevated palm oil prices. We believe that supply and demand will remain tight. In the near term, limiting any late year seasonal price resets that usually we experience. Let me pass things over to Luciano, where he will dive deeper into financial results, our strategies and the capital allocation.

預計合約市場需求將保持健康的基本負荷，加上東南亞持續強勁的拉動，棕櫚油價格上漲將支撐東南亞地區穩固的種植經濟。我們認為，供需情勢仍將保持緊張。在短期內，限制我們通常會經歷的任何年末季節性價格重置。讓我把事情交給盧西亞諾，他將更深入地探討財務結果、我們的策略和資本配置。

Good morning. This was a very unusual quarter in terms of results with a lot of noise. We encourage you to see the underlying performance of the business through the numbers and also see why we believe Q3 performance will be amongst the strongest in many, many quarters. First, on net income. The notables were actually on the positive side.

早安.從業績來看，這是一個非常不尋常的季度，充滿了各種噪音。我們鼓勵您透過數字來了解業務的基本表現，並了解為什麼我們相信第三季的表現將成為許多季度以來最強勁的表現之一。首先，關於淨收入。知名人士其實都持正面態度。

The US dollar lost value compared to most currencies, including the Brazilian real, the Canadian dollar. So there was a reversal of the foreign exchange effects experienced in previous quarters, a total of $220 million. In addition to that, we had a gain of $216 million in the market value of our modern shares and with these two main effects, net income was $411 million compared to a net loss of $162 million a year before. Second, on EBITDA.

美元兌大多數貨幣（包括巴西雷亞爾和加拿大元）貶值。因此，前幾季經歷的外匯影響被逆轉了，總計 2.2 億美元。除此之外，我們的現代股票市值還增加了 2.16 億美元，加上這兩個主要影響，淨收入達到 4.11 億美元，而去年同期的淨虧損為 1.62 億美元。第二，關於EBITDA。

Well, you saw we had these larger than usual provisions that amounted to more than $60 million on a net basis. Most of these do not have any cash effect in the quarter. And some also will not have cash effects going forward, such as, for example, the bad debt expense, the inventory adjustments, one asset write-off, but some will, some will have a cash component. For example, we recorded $8 million in environmental reserves for future remediation at our Taquari potash mine. We recorded $4 million for legal reserves.

嗯，您看到了，我們的撥備比平時要大，淨額超過 6000 萬美元。其中大多數在本季度都沒有任何現金影響。有些項目將來也不會產生現金影響，例如壞帳費用、庫存調整、一項資產註銷，但有些項目會有現金部分。例如，我們記錄了 800 萬美元的環境儲備，用於 Taquari 鉀礦的未來修復。我們記錄了 400 萬美元的法定儲備金。

So we had a number of net unfavorable items that all came together this quarter. And while we always have some level of this kind of activity, it was quite large. We don't expect to repeat this level in Q3 and Q4. Just a note on bad debt. The $30 million bad debt expense in Mosaic Fertilizantes, we had with a single customer it is 90% backed by insurance.

因此，本季我們遇到了一些淨不利項目。雖然我們一直都會進行一定程度的這類活動，但規模相當大。我們預計第三季和第四季不會重複這一水平。這只是關於壞帳的說明。我們與 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的單一客戶發生了 3000 萬美元的壞帳支出，其中 90% 由保險承擔。

So we expect recoveries going forward. Indeed, for example, this quarter, we collected $50 million related to a bad debt expense booked in Q3 last year. Also on EBITDA, you can see that all the work of turnarounds that we talked extensively cost us money, a lot of money. We have been speaking about $100 million overall aggregate investment to increase reliability. But part of that, you can see in these elevated idle and turnaround expenditures, some of the work just can't be capitalized, it has to be expensed.

因此我們預計未來將會復甦。確實，例如本季度，我們收回了與去年第三季記帳的壞帳費用相關的 5,000 萬美元。另外，關於 EBITDA，你可以看到，我們廣泛討論的所有扭虧為盈的工作都花費了我們很多錢。我們一直在談論總投資 1 億美元來提高可靠性。但從這些增加的閒置和周轉費用中，你可以看到，有些工作無法資本化，而必須計入費用。

Not a surprise, a significant part of the increase in idle and turnaround expenses came from phosphates. And why is that? We not only extended the duration of our turnarounds, which impacted our production volumes, which impacted our fixed cost absorption, but we also spent more actual dollars in repairs and maintenance. These works, another reminder, are all with the goal to derisk not just our second half performance, but well into the future as we return to a sustained and more normal production output level. So therefore, we also expect Q3 idle and turnaround expenses to decline from Q2 to get to a more normalized level because the work has been completed to improve asset reliability.

毫不奇怪，閒置和周轉費用增加的很大一部分來自磷酸鹽。這是為什麼呢？我們不僅延長了周轉時間，影響了我們的生產量，影響了我們的固定成本吸收，而且我們在維修和保養方面也花費了更多的實際資金。再次提醒大家，這些工作的目的不僅是為了降低我們下半年業績的風險，而且是為了降低未來恢復到持續、更正常的生產產出水準的風險。因此，我們也預計第三季的閒置和周轉費用將從第二季開始下降，達到更正常的水平，因為提高資產可靠性的工作已經完成。

So now the bright part. Phosphates, for example. You know that everything changes upon the volumes. As we said, 85% of our cash cost of conversion is fixed. So given the low production volumes, the unit cost metric of $126 per ton in Q2 behaved exactly as it should.

現在是光明的部分。例如磷酸鹽。你知道一切都會隨著音量而改變。正如我們所說，85% 的現金轉換成本是固定的。因此，考慮到產量較低，第二季每噸 126 美元的單位成本指標表現完全正常。

It is above our Investor Day target of $95 to $100 per ton, but only because of low production volumes. On a positive note, cash mine rock costs in Florida are the lowest in 10 quarters, $51 per ton against an average of $55 per ton in 2024. You're not seeing it yet because of the low volumes of finished product. But these results will flow into the blended rock costs once finished product volumes come back. In Potash, the cash production cost per ton was $75, up from the same quarter last year, again, due to less fixed cost absorption and lower but it was down from $78 in the first quarter.

它高於我們投資者日設定的每噸 95 至 100 美元的目標，但這僅僅是因為產量低。從積極的方面來看，佛羅裡達州的現金礦山岩石成本是 10 個季度以來的最低水平，為每噸 51 美元，而 2024 年的平均成本為每噸 55 美元。由於成品數量很少，您目前還看不到它。但一旦成品產量恢復，這些結果將計入混合岩成本。鉀肥的每噸現金生產成本為 75 美元，高於去年同期，同樣是由於固定成本吸收減少，但低於第一季的 78 美元。

And we conducted a turnaround at Esterhazy in Q2 this year versus Q3 last year, and the shift in timing impacted a lot of metrics year-over-year when you compare Q2 '25 to Q2 '24. It impacted production volumes unit costs and turnaround and hydro expenses. So again, as in phosphates, you should expect potash Q3 turnaround and idle expenses to decline from Q2. Mosaic Fertilizantes, so far, the nicest story. There, we have achieved $106 million of our $150 million cost reduction target.

與去年第三季相比，我們在今年第二季度對 Esterhazy 進行了一次扭虧為盈，如果將 2025 年第二季度與 2024 年第二季度進行比較，時間上的變化對許多指標產生了同比影響。它影響了產量、單位成本以及週轉和水電費用。因此，與磷酸鹽一樣，您應該預期鉀肥第三季的扭虧為盈和閒置費用將從第二季開始下降。Mosaic Fertilizantes，迄今為止最美好的故事。在那裡，我們已實現 1.5 億美元成本削減目標中的 1.06 億美元。

These cost reductions and the higher realized prices are behind the $150 million in EBITDA despite the bad debt expense of $18 million, net of recoveries. In Q3, with increased volumes, no further bad debt expenses and a recovery in distribution margins were bound to have an excellent quarter. The question is if we're going to be above $200 million mark or well above the $200 million mark. This will depend on management of sales volumes given the credit environment. And finally, for you to better model Mosaic Fertilizantes.

儘管壞帳支出為 1,800 萬美元（扣除回收款項），但這些成本削減和更高的實現價格是 EBITDA 達到 1.5 億美元的原因。在第三季度，隨著銷量的增加、沒有進一步的壞帳支出以及分銷利潤率的回升，注定會有一個出色的季度。問題是我們是否會超過 2 億美元大關，或遠遠超過 2 億美元大關。這將取決於信貸環境下的銷售量管理。最後，為了幫助您更好地模擬 Mosaic Fertilizantes。

This quarter, we added disclosure on production sales volumes in the result and outlook tables in the press release. We provide margins that are earned by these tons and we provide further breakdown of these tons in the performance data sheet. All this new disclosure, hopefully, will add some transparency to this segment. Back to cost reductions. We have achieved $150 million cost reduction targets established last year.

本季度，我們在新聞稿的業績和展望表中增加了生產銷售量的揭露。我們提供這些噸位所賺取的利潤，並在績效數據表中提供這些噸位的進一步細分。希望所有這些新的披露能夠為這一領域增加一些透明度。回到降低成本的問題。我們已經實現了去年制定的1.5億美元的成本削減目標。

How? On the back of Mosaic Fertilizantes as we discussed and SG&A alone. However, in SG&A, the bottom line is clouded because of the bad debt expenses and because of the noncash amortization of the large technology investment we made and that amortization started in Q3 2024. And so we also included in the appendix of the presentation and demonstration of the SG&A savings. And with this achievement, we are now extending our goal from $150 million to $250 million.

如何？正如我們所討論的，僅在 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的支持下以及 SG&A。然而，在銷售、一般及行政費用方面，由於壞帳費用以及我們所做的大量技術投資的非現金攤銷（攤銷從 2024 年第三季開始），底線變得模糊。因此，我們也在附錄中加入了銷售、一般和行政費用節省的介紹和證明。憑藉這項成就，我們現在將目標從 1.5 億美元擴大到 2.5 億美元。

Going forward, this additional $100 million in value capture is expected to be achieved by the end of 2026 and will come from further cost reductions by automating administrative functions, optimizing supply chain and other cost reductions in operations gross margin optimization and fixed cost absorption as we ramp up our production levels. So the prospects here are very, very exciting. So to conclude, quarter-three EBITDA in all segments is expected to be significantly higher than last quarter. With an extraordinary level of turnaround to improve asset health and reliability behind us. In phosphates, we expect volumes to increase.

展望未來，預計到 2026 年底將實現這 1 億美元的額外價值捕獲，並將透過自動化管理職能、優化供應鏈和在提高生產水平的同時降低營運毛利率和吸收固定成本等方式進一步降低成本。所以這裡的前景非常非常令人興奮。總而言之，預計所有部門第三季的 EBITDA 將大幅高於上一季。我們透過非凡的轉變來改善資產健康和可靠性。我們預計磷酸鹽的產量將會增加。

Cash conversion cost per ton to decline significantly in the third quarter. Turnaround and idle expenses to come down as well, and therefore, having strong EBITDA growth from Q2 to Q3. In potash, we're pedal to the metal, increasing production, sales outlook to take advantage of favorable market conditions. And Mosaic Fertilizantes will be peak sales, peak margin season in Q3. We definitely have the win at our back.

第三季每噸現金轉換成本大幅下降。週轉費用和閒置費用也會下降，因此從第二季到第三季度，EBITDA 將會強勁成長。在鉀肥方面，我們全力以赴，提高產量和銷售前景，以利用有利的市場條件。Mosaic Fertilizantes 的銷售額和利潤率將在第三季達到頂峰。我們絕對有獲勝的把握。

With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

接線員，請打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

（操作員指示） 豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

Just looking at the share price performance today, I was hoping you could parse out the noise from what has actually changed from your Investor Day for better or worse.

僅從今天的股價表現來看，我希望您能夠分析投資者日以來實際發生的變化，無論是好是壞。

Ben, thanks for your question. I assume you want to go through everything in Investor Day that is changed?

本，謝謝你的提問。我猜您想了解投資者日中發生的所有變化？

I just want to understand why the market -- or why do you think the market is reacting so negatively to what seems like a couple of bumpy quarters, but nothing has really changed in terms of the main outlook since your Investor Day. That's what I'm trying to understand.

我只是想了解為什麼市場——或者為什麼您認為市場對幾個看似坎坷的季度做出如此負面的反應，但自投資者日以來，主要前景沒有任何改變。這就是我想要理解的。

Yes, yes. No, I appreciate the question. And I appreciate your report this morning as well. I thought it was well done. I think there's a question and even I know you've asked this in your report on how much of this extraordinary expense that we've all been talking about and that we documented in Q2 is reoccurring or is transitory or extraordinary.

是的，是的。不，我很感謝你提出這個問題。我也很感謝您今天早上的報告。我認為它做得很好。我認為有一個問題，甚至我知道您在報告中問過這個問題，我們一直在談論的、並且在第二季度記錄的這些非常規支出中有多少是重複發生的、暫時的或非常規的。

And I think that's one thing because how do you kind of bake into what the underlying performance was when you normalize things. No doubt, our production volume in phosphates was down from what we had an Analyst Day, and we've talked about that in a number of conferences. There was discoverables particularly at new wells on kind of our phos acid waste disposal handling systems on all three trains that needed to be upgraded. The final upgrade, as we communicated, we tried to pull that into June, just couldn't get the parts in time. We're targeting to have that done in mid-July.

我認為這是一方面，因為當你使事物正常化時，你如何將其融入到底層性能中。毫無疑問，我們的磷酸鹽產量比分析師日的產量有所下降，我們在許多會議上都討論過這個問題。特別是在新井中，我們發現三列火車上的磷酸廢棄物處理系統都需要升級。正如我們所溝通的，最後的升級是嘗試將其推遲到 6 月份，但無法及時獲得零件。我們的目標是在七月中旬完成。

It ended up going all the way to the end of July due to parts availability. So that was the biggest change from a production, although we did guide in early June of what we anticipated there. And actually, we're right at the midpoint of guidance. But that is a definite difference in what we had in our Analyst Day numbers. As far as the extraordinary expenses, we've talked a lot about this and dug into kind of what is kind of average on turnaround and idle expense for our active facilities.

由於零件供應情況，最終持續到 7 月底。因此，這是與製作相比最大的變化，儘管我們確實在 6 月初就預期了這一點。實際上，我們正​​處於指導的中間點。但這與我們分析師日的數據有明顯的不同。就非常規費用而言，我們已經對此進行了大量討論，並深入研究了我們活躍設施的平均週轉和閒置費用。

And although it's not a perfect closure because idle and turnaround always has some variability to it. We feel that about $50 million of that expense in phosphates, particularly was kind of non-normal and was truly due to the extraordinary efforts which we're happy to have behind us to get reliability and asset health back to where we needed to be to do exactly what we said in the Analyst Day, which is to get to that 8 million tonne run rate. So everything else is actually trending quite good.

儘管這並不是一個完美的結局，因為閒置和周轉總是存在一些變化。我們認為，其中約 5000 萬美元的磷酸鹽支出有點不正常，這確實歸功於我們付出的非凡努力，我們很高興看到這些努力讓我們的可靠性和資產健康狀況恢復到我們需要的水平，從而實現我們在分析師日所說的目標，即達到 800 萬噸的運行率。所以其他一切其實都趨勢良好。

Potash costs are a little bit higher with FX and the production mix with more run time from Colonsay particularly in quarter two, with Esterhazy being down, the horse rather in Q2 versus Q3, which is maybe more normal for turnaround. That cost difference probably was more highlighted and elevated. But listen, on Biosciences, we're making good progress on Fertilizantes as Luciano just highlighted in the prerecorded section. Really excited about what we're seeing in the underlying performance of that.

由於 FX 和生產組合的緣故，鉀肥成本略高，Colonsay 的運行時間更長，尤其是在第二季度，而 Esterhazy 在第二季度而不是第三季度處於劣勢，這對於扭虧為盈來說可能更為正常。這種成本差異可能更加突出和高漲。但是聽著，在生物科學方面，正如盧西亞諾在預先錄製的部分所強調的那樣，我們在 Fertilizantes 方面取得了良好的進展。我們對所看到的潛在表現感到非常興奮。

And all of our Analyst Day targets, potash cost conversion cost as well as mined rock cost all are trending towards exactly where we wanted them to be on Analyst Day, outside of maybe a little bit of impact of FX. That's a little bit more than what we would have thought at that moment in March earlier this year. So Ben, it's a great question. I think it's the phosphate volumes, and hey, when is execution going to come to bear, and how much of this large extraordinary expense was reoccurring, and how much of that was kind of onetime.

除了外匯的一點影響外，我們所有的分析師日目標、鉀肥成本轉換成本以及開採岩石成本都趨向於我們在分析師日所希望的水平。這比我們今年早些時候三月那個時候所想像的要多一點。所以本，這是一個很好的問題。我認為是磷酸鹽的量，嘿，什麼時候執行才能產生效果，這些巨大的額外開支中有多少是重複發生的，有多少是一次性的。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究公司。

A simple yet complex question. What was your run rate roughly in July? And how are we -- where are we trending in August and September, just essentially what's underscoring your confidence into the balance of the year. And when I take a look at slide 8 as kind of the foundation for those comments, perhaps, it looks like Bartow pretty much has been there where it needs to be. New Wales and Riverview are in the process of just kind of getting there.

一個簡單又複雜的問題。七月您的運作率大概是多少？我們的情況如何——8 月和 9 月的趨勢如何，本質上是什麼強調了您對今年平衡的信心。當我將第 8 張幻燈片作為這些評論的基礎時，也許看起來 Bartow 已經到達了它需要到達的地方。新威爾斯和 Riverview 正在努力實現這一目標。

And Louisiana looks a little uncertain. So if you could just hit on those remarks and pieces of that together for us, it would be greatly appreciated.

路易斯安那州看起來有點不確定。因此，如果您能就這些評論和其中的部分內容為我們做出說明，我們將不勝感激。

Yes, Chris, I appreciate the question. Thanks, as always. So in July, run rate was not what we were hoping for. And primarily, what I said earlier is because of the large the delay about two weeks on the third pumping system at New Wales. And listen, New Wales is our horse.

是的，克里斯，我很感謝你的提問。一如既往，謝謝。因此，7 月份的運行率並不像我們所希望的那樣。我之前所說的主要是因為新威爾斯的第三個抽水系統延誤了大約兩週。聽著，新威爾斯是我們的馬。

Now that, that is complete, we're seeing exactly like we saw in the other two trains of that not being an issue and getting the elevated rates. It's still early in August, and listen, this went all the way to the end of the month. So we don't have a lot of free and clear run rate into August. But what we're seeing in the numbers is very encouraging. Louisiana actually is more encouraging than you may realize.

現在，一切已經完成，我們看到的情況與我們在其他兩列火車上看到的完全一樣，這不是問題，而且票價也提高了。現在還是八月初，聽著，這件事一直持續到月底。因此，八月我們的自由淨運轉率並不高。但我們看到的數字非常令人鼓舞。路易斯安那州實際上比你想像的更令人鼓舞。

I know our graphic, how we're trying to represent asset health is an interesting way to do that. But actually really encouraged by the numbers that we're seeing in Louisiana. And as you said, Bartow is kind of humming along right at its 2 million tonne annualized capacity without much of a hiccup. Riverview. All the major work is done, and we're excited in what the opportunity is that we're seeing there.

我知道我們的圖表，我們試著表示資產健康狀況是一種有趣的方式。但實際上，我們在路易斯安那州看到的數字確實令人鼓舞。正如您所說，巴託的年產能為 200 萬噸，運作順利，沒有太大問題。河景。所有主要工作都已完成，我們對所看到的機會感到非常興奮。

And we just need to -- now the maintenance activities, there's nothing scheduled more an extraordinary work is to really just -- now that, that is out of the way, as Luciano said, in potash, putting the pedal down in phosphate and stringing together days, weeks, months, and we're very encouraged by what we're seeing. Hence, our guidance at 1.8 million to 2 million tonne range. That's the confidence we have and what we're seeing and the confidence we have in what we've executed and got behind us going forward.

我們只需要 — — 現在的維護活動，沒有什麼安排，更特別的工作就是 — — 現在，正如盧西亞諾所說，在鉀肥方面，我們已經解決了磷酸鹽方面的障礙，並將幾天、幾週、幾個月的時間串聯起來，我們對所看到的結果感到非常鼓舞。因此，我們的預期產量在 180 萬噸至 200 萬噸之間。這就是我們的信心，也是我們所看到的，也是我們對我們已經執行的和未來所取得的成就的信心。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

喬爾傑克森 (Joel Jackson)，BMO 資本市場。

So we have $50 million idle and turnaround one-off costs in Q2. You've been very clear about that in lots of different ways. You say that those costs are going down in Q3. I think what investors and shareholders really want to understand is these $50 million of extraordinary costs, how do these exactly ramp down? If you can give us as much granular as possible, is that $30 million in Q3, $10 million in Q4, 0 in Q1? Is it 0 in Q4? Please tell us.

因此，我們第二季的閒置和周轉一次性成本為 5,000 萬美元。您已經透過多種不同方式明確表達了這一點。您說這些成本在第三季會下降。我認為投資人和股東真正想了解的是，這 5,000 萬美元的非經常性成本究竟如何減少？如果您能給我們盡可能詳細的信息，那麼第三季度是 3000 萬美元，第四季度是 1000 萬美元，第一季是 0 萬美元嗎？Q4 是 0 嗎？請告訴我們。

Yes, Joel, I'm not going to answer it the way you're asking because we don't guide on this on a quarter basis. But let me try this. As we look back historically at turnaround costs in phosphates, as an example, they're in the ZIP code on an annualized basis of $100 million to $110 million. It is lumpy because unit operations have different schedules for phos acid, granulation and sulfur. So it's not that easy.

是的，喬爾，我不會按照你問的方式回答這個問題，因為我們不是按季度來指導這個問題的。但讓我嘗試一下。以磷酸鹽為例，我們回顧歷史，其周轉成本以年率計算在 1 億至 1.1 億美元之間。由於單元操作對磷酸、造粒和硫有不同的時間表，因此它很不均勻。所以這並不是那麼容易。

And you will always have one quarter higher than another year-over-year because of that kind of lumpiness. But on average, I think a good number to model from an annualized basis for phosphates is about $100 million to $110 million. In potash, that number is going to be a different number. I know you asked about phosphates, particularly. And then you can look at the history there.

由於這種不均勻性，每年總會有一個季度的業績比另一個季度高。但平均而言，我認為以磷酸鹽的年化基礎來建模的一個好數字是大約 1 億至 1.1 億美元。對於鉀肥來說，這個數字將會有所不同。我知道您特別詢問了磷酸鹽。然後你就可以看看那裡的歷史。

I don't think the history is different in potash. But again, you look at what we had at Esterhazy, Q2, we executed a turnaround this year. in Q2 rather than what is more traditionally Q3, and that was to try to do the hydrofloat tie-in so that we had the 400,000 tons of additional capacity going into the back half of the year. due to that high return capital project. So I know you'd like a perfect answer.

我認為鉀肥的歷史並沒有什麼不同。但是，再看看我們在埃斯特哈齊的情況，第二季度，我們在今年實現了扭虧為盈。在第二季度，而不是傳統的第三季度，我們試圖進行水力浮式輸送機的連接，這樣我們在下半年就有了 40 萬噸的額外產能。這要歸功於那個高回報資本項目。所以我知道你想要一個完美的答案。

There's no way to give you one. But hopefully, giving you a little more color on an annualized basis allows you to better appreciate what to expect on a more normalized ongoing basis.

沒有辦法給你。但希望，在年度基礎上為您提供更多細節，讓您更了解在更正常化的持續基礎上會發生什麼。

Joel, Luciano. I don't know if you had the time to go through it, but the presentation on our website has 1 slide, which is slide 9, which gives the actual numbers for Q2 '24, Q1 '25 Q2 '25, then you can do some comparisons and you're going to --

喬爾，盧西亞諾。我不知道你是否有時間看完，但我們網站上的簡報有一張幻燈片，也就是第 9 張，其中列出了 2024 年第二季、2025 年第一季和 2025 年第二季的實際數據，然後你可以進行一些比較，然後--

Well, that's the question. That's the question I'm asking.

嗯，這就是問題所在。這就是我要問的問題。

Andrew Wong, RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行 Andrew Wong。

So maybe a couple of things here on the phosphate side again. First is, I think we're about to enter the typical hurricane season in Florida. So just curious like what has Mosaic done to harden the assets against any potential weather disruptions? How much is that factored into the Q3 guide? And then just a general question, and I guess Bruce has kind of answered it already, but like -- when we think back to the earlier parts of this year, it sounded like a lot of the work was set to be completed by Q1.

因此，關於磷酸鹽方面，也許還有幾件事需要注意。首先，我認為我們即將進入佛羅裡達州典型的颶風季節。所以我很好奇 Mosaic 採取了什麼措施來增強資產抵禦潛在天氣幹擾的能力？這在第三季指南中佔了多大比重？然後只是一個一般性的問題，我想布魯斯已經回答了這個問題，但是當我們回想今年早些時候的時候，聽起來很多工作都將在第一季完成。

But then there were other things that seem like they need more work like for example, the new gypsum handling systems. I don't think it was something that was previously mentioned or that we really had discussed. So just kind of curious, like as you're thinking about production going forward, like are there any items at all that still need any major maintenance that should support that run rate? Or are all of those things complete.

但其他方面似乎還需要進一步完善，例如新的石膏處理系統。我認為這不是之前提到過的事情，或是我們真正討論過的事情。所以只是有點好奇，就像您在考慮未來的生產時，是否還有任何產品需要重大維護才能支援該運行率？或者說，所有這些東西都已完成。

Yes, Andrew, I appreciate that. Take -- you got a two-part question there. Hurricane season is approaching, and we do preparation and do crisis planning and practice on that front every single year leading into hurricane season and that has been complete.

是的，安德魯，我很感激。舉個例子──你的問題分為兩部分。颶風季節即將來臨，我們每年都會在颶風季節來臨之前做好準備，制定危機規劃並進行演習，現在這些都已經完成了。

As far as hardening the assets, we've looked at our motor control centers, particularly those on the coastal areas given storm surge potential and made sure that those sit above kind of that flood stage probability given categories of storms. We've also gone through with our insurance carriers and made modifications due to their recommendations for wind improvements in a lot of our stationary buildings, particularly our warehouses with better venting and things like that to allow win to pass through more easily rather than having a higher potential ripping off a roof or damaging a roof.

就資產強化而言，我們已經檢查了我們的電機控制中心，特別是位於沿海地區的電機控制中心，考慮到風暴潮的可能性，並確保這些中心位於風暴類別對應的洪水水位機率之上。我們還與保險公司進行了溝通，並根據他們的建議對許多固定建築物進行防風改造，特別是我們的倉庫，進行更好的通風等改造，以使風更容易通過，而不是更有可能掀翻或損壞屋頂。

So there's a number and a host of things that we've done, again, looking at storm surge, looking at wind. The difficult thing that is hard to hardened for and what we do in preparation going into hurricane season is making sure we have freeboard in our gypsum stacks and clay settling areas is just accounting for how much rain you could get in any given storm.

因此，我們做了很多事情，再次關注風暴潮和風。困難的是難以硬化，我們在颶風季節的準備工作是確保我們的石膏堆和粘土沉降區有乾舷，這只是考慮到在任何特定的風暴中會有多少降雨。

And if you went back to some of the storms we had late last year, one in the 1,000-year storm event is awfully hard to prepare for. So there's billions of gallons of water that can end up falling on are areas that we have to manage. And then we have to deal with that water, but we go to great lengths to make sure our free board -- and there's regulatory requirements around those as well with our state agencies that we have to comply with going into hurricane season and then putting in power back up, pumping back up for all sorts of contingencies as part of our game plan every single year.

如果你回顧去年年底我們經歷的一些風暴，你會發現，千年一遇的風暴事件是極其難以預防的。因此，數十億加侖的水最終可能會落在我們必須管理的地區。然後我們必須處理這些水，但我們會竭盡全力確保我們的董事會自由——並且我們的國家機構也有相關的監管要求，我們必須遵守進入颶風季節的規定，然後恢復電力，為各種突發事件恢復供水，這是我們每年的比賽計劃的一部分。

And then second part of your question was phosphate?

那麼你問題的第二部分是磷酸鹽嗎？

Any major (inaudible)

任何專業（聽不清楚）

Yes, Andrew, great question. We talk about that always, and we do with our reliability, maintenance folks, assessments of each of our unit operations. we don't see any obvious issues in the remainder of the asset base. So for us, any planned maintenance for asset health and reliability is truly now behind us from an execution standpoint. Those gypsum stack pumping systems, maybe we didn't talk about it on an earnings call, but in Q1, but we did -- we've talked about it in a number of different investor conferences.

是的，安德魯，這個問題問得好。我們總是談論這個問題，我們對我們的可靠性、維護人員、每個單位操作的評估也是如此。我們在其餘資產基礎中沒有看到任何明顯的問題。因此對我們來說，從執行的角度來看，任何針對資產健康和可靠性的計畫維護現在都已經過去了。那些石膏煙囪泵送系統，也許我們沒有在收益電話會議上談論它，但在第一季度，我們確實——我們已經在許多不同的投資者會議上談論過它。

As we debottleneck sulfur acid and put the pedal down, particularly at New Wales, we ran into because we haven't run in four years at these rates issues in phosphoric acid, particularly on our gypsum handling. As the rock quality has changed over the last four or five years, we're actually making more gypsum per ton of rock feed than we had historically.

當我們消除硫酸的瓶頸並加大生產力度時，特別是在新威爾士州，我們遇到了磷酸中的問題，特別是在石膏處理方面，因為我們四年來都沒有以這樣的速率運行過。由於過去四、五年來岩石品質發生了變化，我們每噸岩石原料生產的石膏實際上比歷史上要多。

So those systems just simply were a bottleneck that they didn't used to be. And it was not something that we knew until we got to actually trying to push to full rates. So that ended up being a throttle limiter at new wells. And we had to actually replace all three phosphoric acid train gyms pumping systems between April, May, June and July. We don't see anything else like that in any of our other facilities as we've ramped up throughout the last several weeks.

因此，這些系統現在已經成為了以前不存在的瓶頸。直到我們真正嘗試推行全額費率時，我們才意識到這一點。所以這最終成為了新井的節流限制器。我們實際上必須在四月、五月、六月和七月期間更換所有三個磷酸訓練館的泵送系統。在過去幾週內，我們一直在加大力度，在其他任何設施中都沒有看到類似情況。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Can you talk about how tariffs have raised the cost of imports of phosphates into the United States on some kind of percentage or per ton basis?

您能否談談關稅如何以某種百分比或每噸為基礎提高了美國磷酸鹽的進口成本？

Yes, Jeff, thanks. And talk about a dynamic subject is that it seems to be changing on a almost weekly basis these days again. But in general, imports of phosphate have a 10% tariff on top of those depending on the location, but most locations have that.

是的，傑夫，謝謝。說到動態主題，這些天它似乎幾乎每週都在變化。但一般來說，磷酸鹽的進口要加收10%的關稅，具體稅率取決於產地，但大多數地方都有這個關稅。

There's nothing on Russia as of today, but the threat that outside of the CBD -- their CBD duties. But as far as tariffs go, you've seen in the press as we all have, that there is a threat of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire doesn't happen, then maybe we would put more tariffs on Russia. But as of today, there's none. But Jenny has got a little more detail that I'll let her go into. Jenny?

截至今天，俄羅斯還沒有任何動靜，但《生物多樣性公約》以外的威脅——即俄羅斯的《生物多樣性公約》職責。但就關稅而言，正如我們所有人在媒體上看到的，如果俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間停火存在威脅，那麼我們可能會對俄羅斯徵收更多關稅。但截至今天，還沒有。但珍妮掌握了更多細節，我會讓她詳細說明。珍妮？

Sure. Jeff, I think Bruce talked about the tariff impact to the market. which actually indirectly supported the market in the US as this reduced input. Year-to-date, we see around 20% of the import reduction for both P and K.

當然。傑夫，我認為布魯斯談到了關稅對市場的影響。這實際上間接地支持了美國市場，因為這減少了投入。今年迄今為止，磷和鉀的進口量均減少了約 20%。

It looks like it is going to continue. In terms of the direct impact to our own business, we -- our raw materials on sulfur and amonia. Sulfur, majority of the sulfur for our own production in North America is coming from the Gulf, meaning there's no impact on the -- from the tariff. We do buy some solid dry sulfur from Canada, which is exempt from the USMCA agreement.

看起來這種情況還會持續下去。就對我們自身業務的直接影響而言，我們的原料是硫和氨。硫磺，我們在北美生產的大部分硫磺都來自墨西哥灣，這意味著關稅不會對其產生影響。我們確實從加拿大購買了一些固體乾硫，加拿大不受 USMCA 協議的約束。

In terms of ammonia, majority of ammonia that we use a consumer in the US are coming from two sources. One is contracted with the suppliers in the US. The second part is our own self-produced in Faustina. We do buy a small percentage of ammonia from the market in this bucket, we have a very small volume coming from Trinidad, which we will need to pay 15% of the import tariff. That volume is very small.

就氨而言，美國消費者使用的氨大多來自兩個來源。其中一個是與美國供應商簽訂合約。第二部分是我們在 Faustina 自己製作的。我們確實從這個市場的購買了一小部分氨，其中很小一部分來自特立尼達，我們需要支付 15% 的進口關稅。那個體積非常小。

So I would say the direct impact as of today to our cost from raw material side are probably minimal.

因此我想說，截至今天，原材料方面對我們的成本的直接影響可能很小。

So Jeff, that's probably more of an answer than you asked in your question, but that gives general tariff response on not only what's happening to competitors coming into North America, but -- into the US, but also impacts on our own business due to tariffs.

所以傑夫，這可能比你在問題中提出的答案更有意義，但這不僅對進入北美的競爭對手所發生的事情給出了一般的關稅回應，而且對進入美國的競爭對手所發生的事情也給出了一般的關稅回應，而且也對我們自己的業務因關稅而受到的影響給出了一般的關稅回應。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

I've got a follow-up on question 8 -- sorry, on slide 8. that asset health target that you have of 85% to 95% is based on turnaround timing. So can you just help us better understand 85% to 95% means it could be 1 or the other depending on how heavy your planned turnarounds are in a particular year? Is that correct? And then is it also not assuming that there are any unplanned outages in the year?

我對問題 8 有一個後續問題——抱歉，在第 8 張投影片上。您提出的 85% 到 95% 的資產健康目標是基於週轉時間的。那麼，您能否幫助我們更好地理解 85% 到 95% 意味著它可能是 1 或另一個，這取決於您在某一年的計劃週轉量有多大？對嗎？那麼，是否也不假設今年會發生任何計劃外的停電？

And is it your expectation that with all of the work that you've done over the past few years on a go-forward basis that the amount of unplanned outages let's leave hurricanes aside for argument's sake, but the amount of -- to kind of run of the mill unplanned outages would be de minimis. Is that correct?

您是否期望，透過過去幾年所做的所有工作，在未來，非計劃停電的數量（為了便於討論，我們先不考慮颶風），而普通的非計劃停電的數量將是微乎其微的。對嗎？

Vincent, great question. And just I know this is an unusual metric. It's not operating rate, and that was on purpose. But yes, you kind of nailed it. So that pie chart will start to open up the piece of the pie from 95% to 85% as duration -- I'll use an example of sulfuric acid plant turnaround is on a three-year cycle.

文森特，好問題。我知道這是一個不尋常的指標。這不是營運率，這是故意的。但是的，你確實成功了。因此，餅圖將開始打開從 95% 到 85% 的部分作為持續時間——我將使用硫酸工廠週轉率為三年周期的範例。

So in year two, from the turnaround that you previously did the asset health is starting to tick down a little bit until you hit your third-year turnaround, which then it goes back to full asset health again. So it's just a timing issue of asset health just by nature of erosion and corrosion on piping and mechanical equipment incrementally changes in any moment in time from its last turnaround.

因此，在第二年，從您先前實現的轉變來看，資產健康狀況開始略有下降，直到您達到第三年的轉變，然後資產狀況再次恢復完全健康。因此，這只是資產健康狀況的時間問題，因為管道和機械設備的侵蝕和腐蝕的性質自上次轉變以來隨時都在逐漸變化。

The reason it's not 100% is that it does allow for normal unplanned downtime, which is just run-of-the-mill stuff that happens all the time, not these extraordinary unplanned downtimes that we've kind of seen more prevalent in the past. So the answer is, yes, you should think about it that there's no extraordinary unplanned downtime in those numbers, and we don't anticipate that being normal on a go-forward basis. Now that the asset health is where we're showing on slide 8 which is where we're targeting given all the extraordinary efforts and spending and work that we've done over the last few years.

它之所以不是 100% 是因為它確實允許正常的非計劃性停機，這只是經常發生的普通事情，而不是我們過去見過的那些更為普遍的特殊計劃外停機。所以答案是肯定的，您應該考慮一下，這些數字中沒有異常的計劃外停機時間，並且我們預計這在未來不會成為正常現象。現在，資產健康狀況就是我們在第 8 張投影片上展示的，這也是我們考慮到過去幾年所做的所有非凡努力、支出和工作而設定的目標。

Aron Ceccarelli, Berenberg.

阿隆·切卡雷利（Aron Ceccarelli），貝倫貝格（Berenberg）。

I have a question on Fertilizantes in fact. I see that you talked about shrinking perhaps your customer base because you're focusing more on better credit profile. At the same time, you are adding capacity in Palmeirante and now you're talking about $200 million or even more than $200 million EBITDA for next quarter. I'd like to understand, we also have Bioscience becoming EBITDA positive later in the year. How should we think about the earnings power of this business in a mid-cycle scenario.

事實上，我對 ​​Fertilizantes 有一個疑問。我看到您談到縮小客戶群，因為您更注重更好的信用狀況。同時，你們正在增加 Palmeirante 的產能，現在你們談論的是下個季度的 EBITDA 為 2 億美元甚至超過 2 億美元。我想了解一下，我們的生物科學部門也將在今年稍後實現 EBITDA 正成長。在中期週期情境下，我們應該如何看待該業務的獲利能力。

Yes, Aron, thanks for the question. I know that the two may seem to conflict with each other. But it is just part of our credit -- our risk management process with customers given the credit situation in Brazil and knowing that if credit continues to be a pervasive issue with some customers, we may choose not to do business. And that's why we have a guidance range that is probably wide as it is, and that we're saying that tend to be in Fertilizantes, maybe on the lower end, with that risk included.

是的，阿隆，謝謝你的提問。我知道這兩者似乎是相互衝突。但這只是我們信貸的一部分——考慮到巴西的信貸狀況，我們與客戶的風險管理流程是這樣的：如果信貸繼續成為某些客戶的普遍問題，我們可能會選擇不做生意。這就是為什麼我們的指導範圍可能很廣，我們認為，如果包含此風險，其範圍可能處於較低水平。

Now that may or may not happen, but we are not going to take undue risk, and I'm going to let Jenny kind of talk a little bit more about that. And then maybe turn it over to Luciano to talk a little bit about his view on forward look financial performance in that Fertilizantes segment, given everything that's changed fundamentally from a cost structure standpoint as well as our growth and distribution capability with Palmeirante and what we have planned over the next several years to continue to grow organically with latent capacity as the market continues to grow. So Jenny?

現在這有可能發生，也可能不會發生，但我們不會承擔不必要的風險，我會讓珍妮再多談談這個問題。然後也許可以請盧西亞諾談談他對 Fertilizantes 部門未來財務表現的看法，考慮到從成本結構角度發生的根本變化以及 Palmeirante 的增長和分銷能力，以及我們計劃在未來幾年繼續隨著市場持續增長而利用潛在能力實現有機增長。那麼珍妮？

Sure. Thanks. In terms of Brazil, I would think the credit risk are actually related to A, the macro environment with high interest rate, but also the overall ag commodity prices. So as we are in the market, it is cyclical. So you still will see the price.

當然。謝謝。就巴西而言，我認為信貸風險實際上與 A、高利率的宏觀環境以及整體農產品價格有關。所以，當我們處於市場中時，它是周期性的。所以你仍然會看到價格。

The market will come back. the expansion in northern part of the country in Brazil, we're not only looking into the current season or next season. we're looking at the growth of the overall agriculture expansion in that part of the market. And also we see a very -- the growth itself, it is going to come along in the next few years. So is that contradictory to our smaller customer base?

市場將會復甦。在巴西北部地區的擴張中，我們不僅關注當前季節或下一季。我們也關注該部分市場整體農業擴張的成長。而且我們也看到了——成長本身，它將在未來幾年內出現。那麼這與我們較小的客戶群相矛盾嗎？

I would say -- I would argue as the market growth in northern part of the country, our customers are growing in that part of the country as well, especially those customers, the end users like Mega Farmers and some of the major trading companies they're expanding their presence in the market. So we are growing as our customers are growing and the customers, they have a much more solid credit situation growth in that market as well.

我想說的是——我認為隨著該國北部市場的成長，我們在該地區的客戶也在成長，尤其是那些客戶，像 Mega Farmers 這樣的最終用戶以及一些大型貿易公司，他們正在擴大其在市場上的影響力。因此，隨著客戶的成長，我們也在成長，而且客戶在該市場的信用狀況也更加穩固。

So I would say it is not really contradictory. It is actually complementary as we go through that growth journey in Brazil. I would -- in terms of the Bioscience, we are getting into the stage by end of the year that we're going to be EBITDA positive. And from next year, the growth are going to be from the new product launches.

所以我想說這並不矛盾。當我們經歷巴西的成長歷程時，這實際上是互補的。就生物科學而言，到今年年底，我們將進入 EBITDA 為正的階段。從明年開始，成長將來自新產品的推出。

This year, we have launched two new products already. And we have three new in the pipeline to be launched in the rest of the year. And next year, we have new products to be launched as we are going through regulatory process. The growth is also coming from the customers, the new customers and also new crops. And I can prove to you that the first half of Bioscience growth not only coming from new customer, new crop, and also, existing customers, those who have used our bioscience product.

今年我們已經推出了兩款新產品。我們還有三款新產品即將在今年剩餘時間內推出。明年，我們將推出新產品，同時正在履行監管程序。成長也來自於客戶、新客戶以及新作物。我可以向你們證明，生物科學上半年的成長不僅來自新客戶、新作物，還有現有客戶，也就是那些使用過我們生物科學產品的客戶。

This year, they can see the benefit of using power code and the (inaudible), especially in the environment when fertilizers are more expensive, which helps them to improve the efficiency of these expensive fertilizers. So in terms of the financial projections, I would ask Luciano to provide you some insight. Lastly, I would also say Luciano probably also can help some of the ideas on funding financial solutions in helping us navigating this credit challenged market environment in Brazil this year as well. Over to you.

今年，他們看到了使用電力代碼和（聽不清楚）的好處，特別是在化學肥料價格更高的環境下，這有助於他們提高這些昂貴肥料的效率。因此，就財務預測而言，我想請盧西亞諾為您提供一些見解。最後，我還想說，盧西亞諾可能也能提供一些關於融資金融解決方案的想法，幫助我們今年應對巴西信貸挑戰的市場環境。交給你了。

So Aron, if you look five years from now, we have targets on the Investor Day deck to kind of reach around 13 million tonnes of sales in Brazil. If we use, for example, our -- the upper end of our $30 to $40 distribution margin. And so you get around the ballpark of $500 million just for distribution.

因此，阿隆，如果展望五年後，我們在投資者日演講中設定的目標是在巴西的銷售量達到 1300 萬噸左右。例如，如果我們使用我們的——30 至 40 美元分銷利潤的上限。因此，僅分銷費用就約為 5 億美元。

If you get to the -- we want a low end for that for example, just picking a number like $10 million times the lower bound for the distribution margin times 30, you would get to $300 million. So $300 to $500 million would be kind of a range and an aspiration to grow into that range for just the distribution portion.

如果你達到 — — 我們想要一個低端，例如，只需選擇一個數字，例如 1000 萬美元乘以分配利潤的下限乘以 30，你就會得到 3 億美元。因此，3 億到 5 億美元是一個範圍，並且我們希望僅將分銷部分擴大到這個範圍。

We now speak also about $75 to $80 per tonne on current market for the tonnes that we produce, which is around 4 million. So that gets you another $300 million to $350 million for our own tonnes. So you add -- so you see that the earnings potential for Mosaic Fertilizantes and when you add also the coproducts, which are around $40 million per quarter, could actually reach to $1 billion over the long term. And that's definitely what we are going to pursue. We'd like to call attention as well.

我們現在也談到，我們生產的約 400 萬噸的當前市場價格約為每噸 75 至 80 美元。這樣，我們自己的噸數就能再獲得 3 億到 3.5 億美元的收益。因此，您會看到，Mosaic Fertilizantes 的獲利潛力，加上副產品（每季約 4000 萬美元），實際上可以長期達到 10 億美元。這絕對是我們要追求的。我們也想提請大家注意。

We don't disclose, but maybe in the future, we will that our China business is becoming more material. So we had around $30 million in the first half of this year. So we may have around $60 million and there's a potential to double or triple this number very quickly. And in Biosciences, we continue to pursue our target of $250 million EBITDA longer term. the speed to which will attain it is more dependent on regulatory approvals for some of our products than anything else.

我們沒有透露，但也許在未來，我們會透露我們的中國業務將變得更加重要。因此，今年上半年我們的收入約為 3,000 萬美元。因此，我們可能有大約 6000 萬美元，並且有可能很快就會將這個數字翻倍或三倍。在生物科學領域，我們將繼續追求長期 2.5 億美元 EBITDA 的目標。實現這一目標的速度更多地取決於我們某些產品的監管部門批准。

David Symonds, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的戴維‧西蒙茲。

So first question, if I back out the implied specialties price from the phosphate division, then it looks like the price realization was quite low for phosphate specialties. Is there any reason for that? If you could talk through what happened with MicroEssentials pricing in the quarter. Could you give an idea of what's happening on the ground in Brazil? So you mentioned the change to government financing support for farmers, and we've seen potash prices still a little bit in Brazil over the past few weeks.

所以第一個問題是，如果我從磷酸鹽部門撤回隱含的特種產品價格，那麼看起來磷酸鹽特種產品的價格實現相當低。這有什麼原因嗎？您能談談本季 MicroEssentials 定價的情況​​嗎？能介紹一下巴西當地的情況嗎？所以您提到了政府對農民融資支持的變化，我們看到過去幾週巴西的鉀肥價格仍有小幅上漲。

So I don't know, it's interesting to hear your very positive outlook for first (inaudible) at the same time was talking about potentially some headwinds in the Brazilian market. Maybe you could elaborate on that. And then I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks that you expect the third quarter to be the best quarter for some time. Given the share price reaction today, -- and given the consensus, I think it was around $850 million EBITDA for Q3, could you maybe give a bit more color on those remarks, too?

所以我不知道，聽到您對第一個（聽不清楚）的非常積極的展望很有趣，同時談論的是巴西市場可能遇到的一些阻力。也許您可以詳細說明一下。然後我想您在準備好的發言中提到，您預計第三季將是一段時間內最好的季度。考慮到今天股價的反應，以及市場共識，我認為第三季的 EBITDA 約為 8.5 億美元，您能否對這些言論做出更詳細的說明？

David, can you clarify your question on specialty phosphates. I think none of us kind of followed that. Are you saying MicroEssentials margins? What particularly are you asking? So we answer (inaudible)

大衛，您能解釋一下關於特種磷酸鹽的問題嗎？我想我們中沒有人遵循這一點。您說的是 MicroEssentials 利潤嗎？您具體想問什麼？所以我們回答（聽不清楚）

Yes, sure. So if I take the ASP and the phosphate division and then I back out the realized DAP price using DAP volumes and the price you give and the remainder, I'm taking as a kind of benchmark for the specialties pricing, and that seemed to fall quarter-on-quarter with worse realization in the sort of in the rest of the business, if I take out the DAP part. So just curious whether that's a quirk of the calculation or whether there's anything happening in specialty pricing in Q2?

是的，當然。因此，如果我採用 ASP 和磷酸鹽部門，然後使用 DAP 數量和您給出的價格以及餘數來推導出實現的 DAP 價格，我將其作為特種定價的基準，如果我取出 DAP 部分，該價格似乎會逐季度下降，而其餘業務的實現情況也會更糟。所以我只是好奇這是否是計算上的怪癖，或者第二季的特殊定價是否有任何變化？

Yes. I think, David, that's one that's probably better handled off-line to get into more detail because there's feed products and there's a lot of stuff that go into that calculation. And we're already running up on time. So not trying to avoid that question. The second part was more Brazil, what's going on the ground, I think, is what you said?

是的。大衛，我認為這個問題最好在線下處理，以便獲得更詳細的信息，因為其中涉及飼料產品，而且有很多東西需要納入計算。我們已經快到時間了。所以不要試圖迴避這個問題。第二部分更多的是關於巴西，當地正在發生什麼，我想這就是你所說的？

Yes, exactly. And maybe some comments specifically around the government's reduction in support for pharma financing of input costs.

是的，確實如此。也許還有一些關於政府減少對製藥業投入成本融資支持的評論。

Yes. I'm going to turn that over to Jenny and if Luciano has got anything to add as well. But Jenny, go ahead.

是的。我要把這個交給珍妮 (Jenny)，如果盧西亞諾 (Luciano) 有什麼要補充的話。但是珍妮，繼續吧。

Yes. So yes. So David, let me start from Brazil. We have a very strong first half of the market where was supported by the last of safrinha corn crop. And the first half of the market was very strong.

是的。是的。大衛，讓我從巴西開始。我們的上半年市場表現非常強勁，這得益於上一季玉米作物的支撐。上半年市場表現非常強勁。

What we're seeing is really a slower, much slower third summer season. The farm economics are challenged given the higher input prices and the lower crop prices and also the credit challenge has made the market moved much slower. What we are saying on the ground at this point of time, normally only 5% of the summer season fertilizers to be purchased. But this year, around 20% to be purchased which shows how slow this market, it is. We are cutting the customers to say the window is closing in order to get their fertizers on the ground, they won't need to get up to the purchases.

我們看到的確實是一個緩慢、緩慢得多的第三個夏季。由於投入價格上漲和農作物價格下跌，農業經濟面臨挑戰，信貸挑戰導致市場走勢放緩。我們目前在實地了解到的情況是，通常只需要購買 5% 的夏季肥料。但今年，購買量約為 20%，這表明這個市場有多緩慢。我們正在削減客戶，讓他們說窗口正在關閉，以便將他們的肥料放到地上，他們不需要去購買。

Otherwise, we will see some significant logistic challenges. The bright side is really on the next safrinha or second corn crop, where the farmers are really on pace of selling their crops and also buying fertilizers. In fact, the farmers buying their future core fertilizers already they've bought 35% for the next second corn crop versus 25% as average. So the real challenge is really in the current summer season for soybean and the credit issue is mainly challenge. And we can tell you the customers on the ground are really trying to find any possible solutions. Probably government support is one of them, which I can -- I need to ask Luciano to comment.

否則，我們將面臨一些重大的物流挑戰。真正好的一面是下一季玉米作物，農民們正在按計劃出售他們的作物併購買化肥。事實上，農民已經購買了未來的核心肥料，他們已經為下一季玉米作物購買了 35%，而平均為 25%。因此，大豆的真正挑戰實際上是在當前的夏季，而信貸問題則是主要的挑戰。我們可以告訴您，當地的客戶確實在努力尋找任何可能的解決方案。政府支持可能是其中之一，我可以——我需要請盧西亞諾發表評論。

Very quickly. So high interest rates, yes, less government support what's happening is that the big farmers, they continue to do well. But the small ones are being squeezed. You're seeing consolidation. So when we talk about credit issues is just on that range of small farmers and the retailers that buy and sell and have a lot of working capital needs.

非常快。是的，高利率、較少的政府支持使得大農場主們繼續過得很好。但小企業卻受到擠壓。您看到的是整合。因此，當我們談論信貸問題時，只涉及那些進行買賣並有大量營運資金需求的小農戶和零售商。

So the planted area is actually growing because the big ones are making up for the difficulties of the small farmers. So that's the situation. It's a consolidation of the market driven by tightness in financial conditions.

因此，種植面積實際上正在增​​長，因為大農場主正在彌補小農場主的困難。情況就是這樣。這是由於金融環境緊張而導致的市場整合。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查德‧加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

So maybe just shifting to potash, you took the full year production guidance up. Just curious, maybe on the third quarter, you had basically in the second quarter, idle cost of $26 million -- sorry, $34 million in potash. Do you expect to get any of that back in the third quarter? And then maybe just bigger picture, with the Esterhazy hydrofloat ramping up. How should we think about 2026 production levels if the market continues to stay strong.

因此，也許只是轉向鉀肥，你就提高了全年產量預期。只是好奇，也許在第三季度，你基本上在第二季度有 2600 萬美元的閒置成本 - 抱歉，是 3400 萬美元的鉀肥。您預計第三季能收回這些成本嗎？然後也許只是更大的圖景，隨著埃斯特哈齊水浮裝置的上升。如果市場持續保持強勁，我們應該如何看待 2026 年的生產水準。

Yes, Richard, third quarter turnaround costs because Esterhazy would usually be it, and it's usually in that $25-ish million to $30 million ZIP code for a turnaround in Esterhazy was pulled in the second quarter. We don't have that in the third quarter. [Bell Plaine] still has a turnaround that straddles third and fourth quarter. But you should expect, as we've said, to see significant decrease in third quarter on turnaround costs in potash. As far as running our facilities, we're going to continue to run Colonsay to meet the strong demand that we're seeing, hence, where we raised guidance.

是的，理查德，第三季度的扭轉成本因為埃斯特哈齊通常都是這樣的，而且通常在那個2500萬美元到3000萬美元的郵政編碼中，埃斯特哈齊的扭轉成本是在第二季度被拉下來的。第三節我們沒有做到這一點。 [貝爾普萊恩]仍然在第三節和第四節之間實現了逆轉。但正如我們所說，您應該預期第三季鉀肥的周轉成本將大幅下降。就運營我們的設施而言，我們將繼續運營科倫賽島以滿足我們看到的強勁需求，因此，我們提高了指導。

And that's really coming from Southeast Asia, we got good solid demand in the Americas. But really, where we're seeing good growth is on the international side. In fact, Canpotex had a record shipment in the first half of the year and is anticipating something similar in the second half of the year given the strong demand. So there's good demand at the right value proposition for us to run all of our assets right now. How does that look going into 2026, given that hydrofloat is now ramping back up.

這確實來自東南亞，我們在美洲獲得了良好的穩定需求。但實際上，我們看到的良好成長是在國際方面。事實上，Canpotex 今年上半年的出貨量創下了紀錄，鑑於強勁的需求，預計下半年的出貨量也將維持類似的水平。因此，現在以正確的價值主張來運作我們所有的資產對我們而言有著良好的需求。鑑於水浮法目前正重新興起，那麼到 2026 年會是如何呢？

We're going to have to continue to evaluate that. If Canpotex and Mosaic domestically to have enough share and enough volume and demand exists for our products. And the value creation is there. We'll continue to run those facilities. But it's too early to say outside of running Bill Plaine full and Esterhazy full, what we're going to do with the Colon at this moment in time until we get a little bit closer to that to quarter one and quarter two of next year.

我們將不得不繼續評估這一點。如果 Canpotex 和 Mosaic 在國內擁有足夠的份額和足夠的產量，我們的產品就會有需求。價值創造就在那裡。我們將繼續運作這些設施。但現在說除了充分運行 Bill Plaine 和 Esterhazy 之外，我們將如何處理 Colon 還為時過早，直到我們更接近明年第一季和第二季為止。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

克里斯汀歐文，奧本海默。

I actually want to finish here on the beginning question, and forgive the simplicity of it, but asking on behalf of myself as the newcomer and on behalf of some of the shareholders, the more broad shareholder base that you've attracted post Investor Day. Given what you know today about your operating rates, you've given guidance on pricing, you've given guidance on volume, you suggested you're sold out in cost for (inaudible) better 10 3Q EBITDA in 2Q. Any sort of quantification of that sequential step-up would be extremely helpful.

實際上，我想就此結束開頭的問題，請原諒這個問題的簡單性，但我作為新人，代表我自己以及一些股東，以及在投資者日之後吸引的更廣泛的股東群體提出這個問題。鑑於您今天對營運率的了解，您已經給出了定價指導，您已經給出了銷售指導，您建議以成本售出（聽不清楚）以獲得第二季度更好的 10 3Q EBITDA。對這種連續升級的任何量化都將非常有幫助。

Well, Kristen, it's kind of like earlier question on guiding to turnaround costs. We just don't guide on EBITDA, but maybe Luciano can help give you some things to think about as maybe you're modeling because the growth should be pretty significant based on those numbers from Q2 to Q3. So Luciano?

嗯，克里斯汀，這有點像之前關於指導週轉成本的問題。我們只是不提供 EBITDA 方面的指導，但也許 Luciano 可以幫助您思考一些事情，因為也許您正在建模，因為根據從第二季度到第三季度的這些數據，成長應該相當顯著。那麼盧西亞諾？

So Kristen, for example, starting with phosphates. (inaudible) margins are going to go up, right? So we're guiding $700 to $720 per tonne prices compared to $668 realized this quarter and sulfur and ammonia prices might be stable. So if you -- that change in margin times the tonnes of the queue is an increase. Then you have phosphate volumes increasing.

以克莉絲汀為例，從磷酸鹽開始。 （聽不清楚）利潤率會上升，對嗎？因此，我們指導的價格為每噸 700 至 720 美元，而本季的價格為 668 美元，硫磺和氨的價格可能會保持穩定。因此，如果您——保證金的變化乘以隊列的噸位就會增加。然後磷酸鹽的體積就會增加。

You can, for example, use the changing tonnes that we're guiding times, even the Q2 margins. We have turnaround and idle costs are coming down. We've discussed this extensively, so another plus. Conversion costs are going to come down another plus. So conversion costs per tonne could come down, you can make an estimate and multiply it by the tonnes, blended rock costs.

例如，您可以使用我們指導時間的變化噸數，甚至是第二季的利潤率。我們已轉虧為盈，閒置成本正在下降。我們已經對此進行了廣泛的討論，因此這是另一個優點。另一個好處是轉換成本將會下降。因此每噸的轉換成本可能會下降，您可以進行估算並將其乘以噸數，即混合岩石成本。

So in other words, a lot of tailwinds. When you go to potash, same thing, prices are we're guiding $270 million to $290 million compared to $261 million. So that increase flow directly into the bottom line. You can multiply the changes by the difference in volumes. The volumes say kind of stable.

換句話說，有很多順風。對於鉀肥，也是一樣，我們指導的價格為 2.7 億美元至 2.9 億美元，而之前的價格為 2.61 億美元。這樣就直接增加了流量，進入了底線。您可以將變化量乘以體積差異。交易量表現比較穩定。

Production costs are going to certainly increase -- decrease with hydrofloat coming in. Turnaround and hydro expenses, we also discussed they're going to come down another estimate you could do. Mosaic Fertilizantes EBITDA, we kind of guided it over $200 million and maybe would be well above depending on how much we sell. So a lot of levers that a good estimate should consider to see what's going on in Q3 and certainly, it's going to be a much better number.

生產成本肯定會增加——但隨著水浮法的出現，生產成本會降低。週轉和水電費用，我們也討論了它們將會降低您可以做的另一個估算。我們預計 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的 EBITDA 將超過 2 億美元，而且根據我們的銷售額，實際數字可能還會更高。因此，一個好的估計應該考慮很多因素來了解第三季度的情況，當然，這將是一個更好的數字。

Well, listen, that's all the time we have for this call. I apologize to the five or six folks that we didn't get a chance to get to. I really appreciate the interest in our call today at a good lineup. I think we talked about a very robust set of topics. So I appreciate that, but I encourage you to follow up with the IR team and ask your questions there as they're well prepared to talk about that.

好吧，聽著，我們這次通話的時間就這麼多了。我向那五、六個我們沒機會接觸的人表示歉意。我非常感謝大家對我們今天良好陣容的關注。我認為我們討論了一系列非常嚴肅的話題。我很感激這一點，但我鼓勵您跟進 IR 團隊並在那裡提出您的問題，因為他們已經做好了討論這個問題的準備。

So I'd like to close our call by reminding you of our key messages. First, our work to improve asset reliability is paying off, and we expect strong production performance as we talked about for the remainder of the year. Second, fertilizer market fundamentals are compelling with tight supply and good global demand driving prices higher for both potash and phosphate. Third, our Brazil business is performing very well, and we expect significant earnings growth in the second half of this year. And finally, we're continuing to derive value from our extensive market access.

所以，在結束我們的通話之前，我想提醒大家我們的關鍵訊息。首先，我們為提高資產可靠性所做的工作正在取得成效，我們預計今年剩餘時間的生產表現將保持強勁。其次，化肥市場基本面強勁，供應緊張且全球需求良好，推動鉀肥和磷酸鹽價格上漲。第三，我們的巴西業務表現非常好，我們預計今年下半年獲利將大幅成長。最後，我們將繼續從廣泛的市場准入中獲取價值。

We have the ability to move tonnes to the markets where demand is highest and we have the pipelines to introduce new products like our Mosaic Biosciences innovations at scale. All in all, we've done the work necessary to set Mosaic up for a very strong second half. So again, thanks for joining our call, and have a great safe day.

我們有能力將大量產品運往需求最高的市場，並且我們擁有大規模推出 Mosaic Biosciences 創新等新產品的管道。總而言之，我們已經完成了必要的工作，為 Mosaic 在下半年的強勁表現做好了準備。再次感謝您參加我們的電話會議，並祝您度過一個安全愉快的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。