美盛公司 (MOS) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Mosaic Company's first-quarter 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加美國莫賽克公司（Mosaic Company）2025會計年度第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，本活動將被錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jason Tremblay. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給 Jason Tremblay。請開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our first-quarter 2025 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial, will then cover the market update; Luciano Siani Pires, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will review financial results and capital allocation progress. We will then open the floor for questions.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們2025會計年度第一季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Bruce Bodine 提供；接著商務執行副總裁 Jenny Wang 將進行市場更新；財務執行副總裁兼財務長 Luciano Siani Pires 將回顧財務結果與資本配置進展。之後我們將開放提問。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並可能受到重大風險與不確定性影響。

Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published today and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be printing certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們今日發布的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。我們也將呈列若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們的新聞稿與績效資料亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce.

現在我想把電話交給 Bruce。

Good morning, and thanks for joining our call. I'll start with our key messages for today. First, fertilizer fundamentals are competitive and prices are rising. Despite the uncertainty around global trade policies, fertilizer demand is very strong in every key growing region of the world; second, we are making progress towards normalizing our phosphate production and operating cost, and we're on track to deliver stronger results this year and beyond; third, Mosaic's industry-leading market access is enabling us to benefit from strong markets and grow in new ways.

早安，感謝各位加入本次電話會議。我先說明今天的重點訊息。第一，肥料基本面具競爭力，價格正在上漲。儘管全球貿易政策仍存不確定性，全球各主要種植區的肥料需求都非常強勁；第二，我們在磷酸鹽產量與營運成本正常化方面持續取得進展，並有望在今年及未來交出更強勁的成果；第三，莫賽克在業界領先的市場通路使我們能受惠於強勁市場，並以新的方式成長。

You can see plenty of evidence of this important strategic advantage. Our business in Brazil is performing exceptionally well. We've increased our potash production outlook to meet demand around the world, and our Mosaic Biosciences business continues to grow at a brisk rate. And finally, our work to shed noncore assets and reallocate capital is continuing to take shape. To cover our first quarter results, net income was $238 million and adjusted EBITDA came in at $544 million.

這項重要的策略優勢有大量證據可見。我們在巴西的業務表現格外出色。我們已上調鉀肥產量展望，以滿足全球需求，而我們的 Mosaic Biosciences 業務也持續以相當快的速度成長。最後，我們剝離非核心資產並重新配置資本的工作也正持續成形。就第一季業績而言，淨利為2.38億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為5.44億美元。

The quarter's results underscore very strong phosphate prices, improving potash prices and excellent performance in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment. And remember, the first quarter is traditionally our seasonally slowest quarter of the year. We expect earnings to improve further from our strong start to 2025. Let's take a few minutes to review market fundamentals at a high level as well as our progress towards our operating goals.

本季結果凸顯磷酸鹽價格非常強勁、鉀肥價格改善，以及 Mosaic Fertilizantes 事業部的優異表現。請記得，第一季傳統上是我們一年中季節性最淡的一季。我們預期在2025年強勁開局之後，獲利將進一步改善。接下來我們將用幾分鐘從高層次回顧市場基本面，以及我們在營運目標上的進展。

Jenny will go deeper into the markets, and Luciano will discuss financial results, financial strategy, and our capital reallocation journey. Our market outlook remains positive, ag commodity fundamentals and fertilizer demand are solid around the world. With sustained supply constraints in phosphate, prices and stripping margins remain elevated compared to historical norms.

Jenny 將更深入說明市場，Luciano 則將討論財務結果、財務策略，以及我們資本再配置的歷程。我們的市場展望仍然正向，全球農產品基本面與肥料需求都相當穩健。在磷酸鹽供給持續受限的情況下，價格與剝採利差（stripping margins）相較歷史常態仍維持在高檔。

And with supply reductions from several major potash producers as well as robust demand, potash prices are rising. In fact, first quarter realized prices of $623 per tonne for phosphate and $223 per tonne for potash exceeded our guidance ranges. The strong performance of Mosaic Fertilizantes was also helped by the realization of higher prices. It is no secret that global trade conflicts and other geopolitical forces have intensified in the past few months.

此外，數家主要鉀肥生產商減產，加上需求強勁，鉀肥價格正在上升。事實上，第一季磷酸鹽實現價格為每噸623美元、鉀肥為每噸223美元，均高於我們的指引區間。Mosaic Fertilizantes 的強勁表現也受惠於更高的實現價格。眾所周知，過去幾個月全球貿易衝突及其他地緣政治力量已加劇。

As we continue to monitor the latest developments and evaluate the impact especially in the US agriculture sector, we believe we are well positioned to navigate these dynamics. Our expansive market access, especially our strong presence and long history of operating in Brazil, and our supply chain agility will prove to be important strategic advantages as we navigate shifting trade flows. While trade continues to grab headlines, I can't emphasize enough that Mosaic is built for the long haul.

在我們持續關注最新發展並評估其影響（尤其是美國農業部門）之際，我們相信公司具備良好條件以因應這些動態。我們廣泛的市場通路，特別是我們在巴西的強大布局與長期營運歷史，以及供應鏈的敏捷性，將在我們因應貿易流向變化時成為重要的策略優勢。雖然貿易議題持續占據新聞版面，但我必須強調，莫賽克是以長期經營為目標而打造的。

The long-term market fundamentals and operating backdrop remain constructive. For example, biofuel mandates around the world continue to advance and that growth is expected to contribute significantly to global grain and oilseed demand. We are seeing this play out in Brazil with increasing ethanol usage. And as a result, corn growers are enjoying both improving profitability, and fertilizer affordability.

長期市場基本面與營運環境仍具建設性。例如，全球各地的生質燃料強制規範持續推進，預期其成長將對全球穀物與油籽需求作出顯著貢獻。我們在巴西已看到此趨勢，乙醇使用量正在增加。因此，玉米種植戶同時享有獲利能力改善與肥料可負擔性提升。

Phosphate demand is also driven by rising lithium iron phosphate production in China, which grew 55% in just the first quarter of this year and continues to limit the amount of phosphate available for export. As a result, the phosphate market remains tight, and while tariffs could disrupt trade flows, they cannot create more phosphate supply.

磷酸鹽需求也受到中國磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）產量上升所帶動；僅在今年第一季就成長55%，並持續限制可供出口的磷酸鹽數量。因此，磷酸鹽市場仍然吃緊；即使關稅可能擾亂貿易流向，也無法創造更多磷酸鹽供給。

Now let's move on to the progress we are making toward normalizing production and costs. Improving our asset reliability and being disciplined in our cost management remain our key focus areas. In potash, the Esterhazy complex continues to generate strong cash flow across the commodity cycle. It clearly benefits us to produce every tonne we can at Esterhazy, and we're investing to do just that.

接下來談談我們在產量與成本正常化方面的進展。提升資產可靠度並在成本管理上保持紀律，仍是我們的關鍵聚焦領域。在鉀肥方面，Esterhazy 綜合設施在整個商品循環中持續創造強勁現金流。對我們而言，在 Esterhazy 能多生產一噸就多一分效益，因此我們正投入資本以達成此目標。

We expect to complete the 400,000 tonne per year hydrofloat project soon. It is expected to increase our production volumes from Esterhazy and improve our product mix flexibility, allowing us to maximize our netbacks while driving our per tonne costs lower. We're on track to achieve our production cost per tonne target this year.

我們預期將很快完成年產40萬噸的 hydrofloat 專案。該專案預期可提升 Esterhazy 的產量並改善產品組合彈性，使我們在推動每噸成本下降的同時，得以最大化淨回收（netbacks）。我們正按計畫在今年達成每噸生產成本目標。

In phosphate, we produced 1.4 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025. The Bartow and New Wales plants experienced substantial downtime for planned turnaround and other reliability improving work during the quarter. That said, March was the third strongest production month in the past 18 months, and we are maintaining our 2025 production volume outlook in the 7.2 million to 7.6 million tonne range.

在磷酸鹽方面，我們於2025年第一季生產140萬噸。Bartow 與 New Wales 工廠在本季因計畫性大修（turnaround）及其他提升可靠度的工作而出現顯著停機時間。即便如此，3月仍是過去18個月中第三強的單月產量，我們維持2025年產量展望為720萬至760萬噸。

As production improves throughout the year, our conversion cash cost per tonne is expected to decline. Mosaic Fertilizantes delivered a very strong operating performance in the first quarter, with conversion and production unit costs declining year-over-year.

隨著全年產量逐步改善，我們預期每噸轉換現金成本將下降。Mosaic Fertilizantes 在第一季交出非常強勁的營運表現，轉換與生產單位成本較去年同期下降。

As cost measures yield further benefits, we expect to achieve our full year unit cost targets. In fact, we expect further improvements in segment profitability in the second quarter. Now let's move on to talk about how we're leveraging our market access to redefine growth.

隨著成本措施帶來更多效益，我們預期將達成全年單位成本目標。事實上，我們預期第二季事業部獲利能力將進一步改善。接下來我們談談如何運用市場通路來重新定義成長。

While operating initiatives will drive significant value creation in the near term, Mosaic also has substantial opportunities beyond the near term to grow in new markets with new products and from new sources. Our expansive Brazil footprint positions us well for growth and to navigate the current geopolitical tensions. Our Mosaic Fertilizantes volumes returned to year-over-year growth in the first quarter.

雖然營運措施將在短期內創造顯著價值，但莫賽克在更長期也擁有可觀機會：以新產品、進入新市場，並從新來源實現成長。我們在巴西的廣泛布局使我們具備良好成長條件，並能因應當前地緣政治緊張局勢。我們的 Mosaic Fertilizantes 銷量在第一季恢復為年增成長。

And with our new Palmeirante blend plant expected to be complete in July, we expect further growth in the remainder of the year. In fact, we have already sold over 50% of the additional tonnes that are expected from the Pelmeirante facility this year. I should also mention that the operating environment is compelling. With the current good farm economics, we now expect approximately 15% sales volume growth this year.

隨著我們新的 Palmeirante 混配廠預計於 7 月完工，我們預期今年剩餘期間將進一步成長。事實上，我們今年已經售出 Pelmeirante 設施預計新增噸數的 50% 以上。我也要提到，營運環境相當有利。在目前良好的農場經濟條件下，我們現在預期今年銷售量將成長約 15%。

Mosaic Biosciences had a strong quarter with revenue more than doubling over the prior year and on track to double for the full year, driven by surging sales for our existing products and new product launches in our key markets. Late last month, Mosaic Biosciences brought Neptunian to the market in China. Neptunion is a biostimulant that helps crops address abiotic pressures such as drought salinity and heat by adding stress resistant properties into water-soluble fertilizers.

Mosaic Biosciences 本季表現強勁，營收較去年同期增加逾一倍，且在既有產品銷售激增與主要市場新產品上市的帶動下，全年營收有望翻倍。上個月底，Mosaic Biosciences 已在中國推出 Neptunian。Neptunion 是一種生物刺激素，透過將抗逆特性加入水溶性肥料，協助作物因應乾旱、鹽害與高溫等非生物逆境壓力。

Neptunian is currently in the registration process in India and Brazil. We are succeeding at engaging growers around the world and demonstrating through extensive field trials that our biological products deliver meaningful yield and value benefits. Moving on to our portfolio review and cash return focused initiatives. You saw the list of assets we shared at our Investor Day in March. Clearly, we have significant potential for future monetization.

Neptunian 目前正在印度與巴西進行登記註冊流程。我們成功與全球種植戶互動，並透過大量田間試驗證明，我們的生物產品能帶來具實質意義的增產與價值效益。接下來談我們的投資組合檢視與聚焦現金回饋的各項措施。各位已在 3 月的投資人日看到我們分享的資產清單。顯然，我們在未來變現方面具備相當大的潛力。

The conclusion of the Ma'aden transaction gave us a transparent value for our investment, which is about $1.5 billion as of today. We announced the Patos De Minas sale earlier this year. Our pursuit of strategic alternatives for our potash mine in Carlsbad, New Mexico is proceeding well, and we continue to assess the performance of assets such as Airshow, Patrocinio and TCAR in Brazil.

Ma'aden 交易的完成，讓我們的投資有了透明的估值，截至目前約為 15 億美元。我們已於今年稍早宣布出售 Patos De Minas。我們針對新墨西哥州 Carlsbad 鉀礦尋求策略性替代方案的進展良好，同時也持續評估巴西 Airshow、Patrocinio 與 TCAR 等資產的表現。

Finally, let me spend a moment addressing capital allocation and capital return to shareholders. Free cash flow generation was constrained by typical working capital seasonality in the first quarter. We continue to expect CapEx of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion this year, and we anticipate free cash flow conversion will improve in the remainder of the year. Our commitment to return excess capital to shareholders is unchanged.

最後，我想花點時間說明資本配置以及對股東的資本回饋。第一季自由現金流的產生受到典型營運資金季節性因素所限制。我們仍預期今年資本支出為 12 億至 13 億美元，並預估自由現金流轉換率將在今年剩餘期間改善。我們回饋多餘資本給股東的承諾維持不變。

Now Jenny will provide a more in-depth update of agriculture and fertilizer markets.

接下來 Jenny 將更深入更新農業與肥料市場的情況。

Thank you, Bruce. Ag fundamentals continue to be robust despite significant uncertainties in the market due to global trade policies. Prices for the most important ag commodities while volatile has moved broadly sideways for the past six months and remains supportive to demand as grower worldwide remain incentivized to push yields higher, as global stock-to-use ratio remains multi-decade low.

謝謝你，Bruce。儘管全球貿易政策使市場存在顯著不確定性，農業基本面仍持續強勁。最重要的農產品價格雖然波動，但過去六個月整體大致持平，仍對需求形成支撐，因為全球種植戶仍有動機提高單位產量，而全球庫存使用比仍處於數十年低點。

It is also important to note that global ag commodity demand tends to be less impacted by global macroeconomic fluctuations. The North American spring season is expected to see typical demand for both P&K with limited channel inventory remaining when pumping wraps up in the next couple of weeks.

同時也必須注意，全球農產品需求通常較不受全球總體經濟波動影響。北美春耕季預期對磷與鉀（P&K）將出現典型需求，且在未來幾週施肥高峰結束時，通路庫存將所剩有限。

We're watching the potential for demand to face some headwinds in the second half of this year due to more challenging fertilizer affordability, driven by lower ag commodity prices in the US as green and oversees importers like China have shifted their buying to other exporters.

我們正關注今年下半年需求可能面臨一些逆風，原因是肥料可負擔性更具挑戰；這主要受到美國農產品價格走低影響，且中國等海外進口商已將採購轉向其他出口國。

However, any harmful impact to the US grower profitability stemming from tariffs and the trade flow shifts are likely to endure to the benefit of Brazilian growers. For example, China increasing purchases of Brazilian soybeans as opposed to US soybeans. In fact, Brazilian grower economics are quite constructive despite the general weakness in global soybean prices.

然而，關稅與貿易流向轉移對美國種植戶獲利能力造成的任何不利影響，可能反而會讓巴西種植戶受益。例如，中國增加採購巴西大豆而非美國大豆。事實上，儘管全球大豆價格整體偏弱，巴西種植戶的經濟狀況仍相當正面。

We have long talked about the natural hedge of market access across key agricultural regions guided by Mosaic's operating model in situations just like this. Growers in Brazil are enjoying a commodity prices at a meaningful premium to price defaulted in Chicago.

我們長期以來一直談到，Mosaic 的營運模式在關鍵農業區域具備市場進入的天然避險效果，正是為了因應像這樣的情境。巴西種植戶享有相對於芝加哥定價的商品價格顯著溢價。

As such, fertilizer shipments into Brazil are expected to set another record with total NPNK shipments likely to exceed 47 million tonnes. Shipments were a bit under 46 million tonnes in 2023 and 2024. We purchases of P&K for the upcoming suffer season are running 10% higher than a year ago.

因此，運往巴西的肥料出貨量預期將再創新高，NPK 總出貨量可能超過 4,700 萬噸。2023 與 2024 年的出貨量略低於 4,600 萬噸。針對即將到來的夏季作物季，P&K 的採購量較去年同期高出 10%。

And elsewhere in the world, grower economics also look compelling. Domestic agriculture is saying additional focus and support in many smaller and mid-scale producing countries with their eye towards insulating food security volatile geopolitical and trade environment.

而在世界其他地區，種植戶經濟狀況看起來也同樣具有吸引力。許多小型與中型生產國正加大對國內農業的關注與支持，著眼於在地緣政治與貿易環境波動下強化糧食安全。

Now a couple of examples. Palm oil producer economics are solid on low inventories driven by continued robust domestic and export demand. Indian pharma returns are also solid, given supportive government policies and domestic ag product prices.

以下舉幾個例子。棕櫚油生產者的經濟效益穩健，原因是庫存偏低，且國內與出口需求持續強勁。印度農民的報酬也相當穩健，受惠於政府支持性政策與國內農產品價格。

And after 2024, a year in which Indian farmers were left with low phosphate fertilizer supply availability due to an insufficient subsidy program the keep import volumes subdued. The Indian government has this year stepped forward with more supportive policy propositions.

而在 2024 年，印度農民因補貼方案不足、使進口量維持低迷，導致磷肥供應可得性偏低。今年印度政府已提出更具支持性的政策主張。

We believe under this more supportive environment that India will see phosphate demand return to a more historically normal input level of 6.4 million tonnes, up 40% year-over-year. While demand for P&K appears well supported, the price continue to look tight.

我們認為在更具支持性的環境下，印度的磷肥需求將回到較符合歷史常態的投入水準，達 640 萬噸，年增 40%。雖然 P&K 需求看似獲得良好支撐，但價格仍顯得偏緊。

For phosphate, Chinese export DAP and MAP remains subdued and are not expected to return with any significance in Q2. As has been the case in recent years, strong domestic fertilizer demand and the diversion of phosphate molecules into industrial uses, like LFP continues to provide a structure change in the availability of Chinese high-analysis phosphate fertilizer exports.

就磷肥而言，中國 DAP 與 MAP 的出口仍然低迷，且預期在第二季不會顯著回升。如同近年情況，中國國內肥料需求強勁，以及磷分子被轉用於工業用途（如 LFP），持續對中國高濃度磷肥出口供給可得性帶來結構性改變。

As Bruce mentioned, regarding LFP, production was up 50% year-on-year in Q1. In potash, we have seen production expectations tick lower in 2025 from some key suppliers like Russia, China and Chile, were questions about sustainability of higher production from Laos also persist. Exports from Belarus were on the higher end of the expectations in Q1. So we are watching for the supply impact from announced the maintenance there to be realized in Q2.

如 Bruce 所提，關於 LFP，第一季產量年增 50%。在鉀肥方面，我們看到部分主要供應商（如俄羅斯、中國與智利）對 2025 年的產量預期有所下調，同時對寮國較高產量能否持續也仍有疑慮。白俄羅斯第一季出口量落在預期區間的較高端。因此，我們正觀察其已宣布的維修對供給的影響是否會在第二季反映出來。

From a pricing standpoint, we believe that both P&K will continue to find support at current levels. In fact, we don't anticipate a meaningful summer field reset if any, in the US market. On the raw materials front, software remains firm. With the latest spot prices, suggesting prices may stay elevated for a longer duration.

從價格角度來看，我們認為 P&K 在目前水準將持續獲得支撐。事實上，我們不預期美國市場在夏季會出現顯著的田間季價格重置（若有也將相當有限）。在原物料方面，硫磺仍維持堅挺。最新現貨價格顯示，價格可能在較長期間維持高檔。

We expect sulfur prices will normalize by end of the year. Conversely, ammonia supply is ramping and prices continue to shift lower. With this backdrop, phosphates benchmarks rooting margins are expected to remain elevated. In summary, our commodity, phosphate and potash market fundamentals remain compelling, and Mosaic expects manageable impact from government and trade policies.

我們預期硫磺價格將在年底前回歸正常。相對地，氨的供給正在提升，價格持續走低。在此背景下，磷肥基準的生產利差預期將維持在高位。總結而言，我們的大宗商品、磷肥與鉀肥市場基本面仍具吸引力，Mosaic 預期政府與貿易政策帶來的影響可控。

Now I'm turning the call to Luciano.

接下來我把電話會議交給 Luciano。

Thank you, Jenny. First, some housekeeping. You will notice that we added cost per tonne metrics to our release. We reconciliation tables to US GAAP metrics at the end. We intend to track and discuss closely with you our progress in those metrics going forward.

謝謝你，Jenny。首先，幾項例行事項。各位會注意到，我們在新聞稿中新增了每噸成本指標。我們在最後附上與美國 GAAP 指標的調節表。未來我們將持續追蹤這些指標的進展，並與各位密切討論。

Now on to the performance. As you can see by the numbers, our phosphate and potash segments outperformed in realized sales prices compared to our own guidance given in the last earnings call. I guess there's no surprises here as you're certainly following the tight supply and demand situation, the recent upward trend in prices.

接下來談績效表現。從數字可以看出，我們的磷酸鹽與鉀肥事業在已實現銷售價格方面，表現優於我們在上次財報電話會議所提供的指引。我想這並不令人意外，因為各位肯定也在關注供需緊俏的情況，以及近期價格的上行趨勢。

And in Q1, we were conducting the maintenance and reliability improvement projects in our facilities to support increasing volumes for the future and that impacted costs. So in the phosphates segment, starting by the mines, United States blended rock costs per tonne was low, $77 in the first quarter.

而在第一季，我們在各項設施進行維護與可靠性提升專案，以支援未來的增量，這也影響了成本。因此在磷酸鹽事業方面，先從礦山談起，美國混合磷礦石每噸成本偏低，第一季為77美元。

Hurricanes well behind us. We had very strong mining output in Q1, and this is continuing. So these lower raw costs, they will work through inventory and will reflect favorably in our financial results in the next few quarters. The cash conversion cost per tonne was $134.

颶風的影響早已過去。我們在第一季的採礦產出非常強勁，而且這樣的態勢仍在延續。因此，這些較低的原料成本將隨著庫存周轉逐步反映，並在未來幾季對我們的財務結果帶來正面影響。每噸現金轉換成本為134美元。

That increase was caused by lower production volumes and higher operating expenses to restore asset reliability, by design and widely communicated. Going forward, we expect to drive costs down towards our range of $95 to $100 run rate. By year-end, as production output improves throughout the rest of the year.

該項增加是由於產量較低，以及為了恢復資產可靠性而提高的營運費用所致，這是刻意安排且已廣泛對外溝通。展望未來，我們預期將把成本推動下降，朝每噸95至100美元的常態運行水準區間靠攏。到年底，隨著今年其餘時間的產出改善。

For the potash segment, again on the cost front, the production cash cost per tonne was $78, up from $72 per tonne in the prior year quarter. During the quarter, we curtailed production in response to the cold weather Saskatchewan, railways could not move the products, our finished product warehouses were full.

至於鉀肥事業，同樣在成本方面，每噸生產現金成本為78美元，高於去年同期的每噸72美元。本季期間，我們因應薩斯喀徹溫省的寒冷天氣而縮減產量，鐵路無法運輸產品，我們的成品倉庫也已滿載。

We could not keep producing, so we had to stop production. And we also pull forward repair and maintenance work during this downtime. So between decisional work and the lower fixed cost absorption, production cash cost per tonne was higher year-over-year.

我們無法繼續生產，因此不得不停產。我們也在這段停工期間提前進行修繕與維護作業。因此，在這些決策性作業以及固定成本吸收降低的共同影響下，每噸生產現金成本較去年同期上升。

Looking to the remainder of the year, we expect those unit production costs to decline reaping the benefits of the hydrofloat project. We're still very much on track to achieve our target of $64 to $69 per tonne. On Mosaic Fertilizantes, our Brazilian business, the improvement story is already developing. We communicated you will remember in our last earnings call that adjusted EBITDA would have an uplift in Q1 because in Q4, it was impacted by a $35 million negative effect from foreign exchange variations.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們預期單位生產成本將下降，並收穫 hydrofloat 專案帶來的效益。我們仍然非常按計畫推進，將達成每噸64至69美元的目標。至於 Mosaic Fertilizantes（我們在巴西的業務），改善的故事已經在發展中。各位會記得，我們在上次財報電話會議中提到，調整後 EBITDA 在第一季會有所提升，因為第四季受到匯率波動帶來的3,500萬美元負面影響。

That is exactly what happened. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $122 million despite still having a negative FX effect on payables and currency hedges of $18 million. So -- last quarter, $35 million this quarter $18 million, but still there. The cost performance continued strong. In Q1, mining costs continued to decline mostly due to the new mine plan in Patrocinio and better performance in Cajati since last year, and that allowed us to stop importing expensive rock.

結果正是如此。調整後 EBITDA 為1.22億美元，儘管應付帳款與貨幣避險仍有1,800萬美元的負面匯兌影響。所以——上季是3,500萬美元，本季是1,800萬美元，但仍然存在。成本表現持續強勁。第一季，採礦成本持續下降，主要由於 Patrocinio 的新礦山計畫，以及 Cajati 自去年以來表現更佳，這也讓我們得以停止進口昂貴的礦石。

Conversion costs stayed somewhat flat compared to Q4, which was already substantially lower than prior quarters. So we're good here. Looking forward to Q2, results will come in much stronger. Why is that? First, seasonality.

轉換成本相較第四季大致持平，而第四季本就已顯著低於先前幾季。因此這部分表現良好。展望第二季，結果將會強勁得多。為什麼？第一，季節性因素。

If sales increased by 30%, for example, as we saw in 2024, distribution margins returned to normalized $30 to $40 range. Remember, in Q1, it was more into the $20 to $30. And if the FX hit reduces further, presuming the FX remains stable. It's very reasonable to expect that Q2 EBITDA for Fertilizantes will be above $150 million. I can walk you through the math in the Q&A if you want.

例如，若銷量增加30%，就像我們在2024年看到的情況，通路（配送）毛利將回到正常化的30至40美元區間。請記得，第一季更接近20至30美元。而且若匯率衝擊進一步降低，前提是匯率維持穩定。那麼合理預期 Fertilizantes 第二季 EBITDA 將高於1.5億美元。如果你們想，我可以在問答環節帶大家算一遍。

Now moving on to SG&A and our progress on the overall $150 million cost savings target. Compared to a year ago, SG&A had about a $16 million negative variance in the quarter, primarily due to revaluation of some outstanding incentive programs. The share price increase, we had to record this non-cash expense. Other than that, core SG&A declined, albeit at a slower pace. SG&A reduction should accelerate in Q3 once we start automating a lot of activities following the introduction of our new software platforms that we discussed during our Investor Day in March.

接著談 SG&A（銷售、一般及行政費用）以及我們在整體1.5億美元成本節省目標上的進展。與一年前相比，本季 SG&A 約有1,600萬美元的不利差異，主要是因為部分未結清的激勵計畫需要重新估值。由於股價上漲，我們必須認列這筆非現金費用。除此之外，核心 SG&A 仍在下降，但速度較慢。一旦我們開始在第三季導入大量活動自動化（在3月投資人日我們討論過的新軟體平台上線之後），SG&A 的降幅應會加速。

And thus, we expect SG&A to be down for the full year. All in, we've achieved about 60% or USD90 million of the $150 million in annual cost savings target. Remember, this $150 million, it's a run rate cost savings. When compared and that is compared to the 2023 baseline.

因此，我們預期全年 SG&A 將下降。整體而言，我們已達成約60%，也就是年度成本節省目標1.5億美元中的9,000萬美元。請記得，這1.5億美元是常態運行（run rate）的成本節省。且是相對於2023年的基準來比較。

Half of these $90 million savings were contributed by Mosaic Fertilizantes. And within that, about $20 million was a result of consuming a higher volume of internally produced rock that we mentioned before. So $45 million from Mosaic Fertilizantes, out of which $20 million from better rock sourcing versus imported. The other half of the $90 million savings was a result of lower SG&A compared to the 2023 baseline.

這9,000萬美元節省的一半由 Mosaic Fertilizantes 貢獻。其中約2,000萬美元是因為我們如先前所提到，使用了更多內部生產的礦石。因此，Mosaic Fertilizantes 貢獻4,500萬美元，其中2,000萬美元來自於以更佳的礦石來源取代進口。另外一半的9,000萬美元節省，則是相較2023年基準 SG&A 較低所致。

On to cash flows. Well, with the improving pricing environment and outlook, our expectations for cash flow generation is increasing. In Q1, cash flows were subdued mostly in light of the seasonal increase of approximately $160 million in inventories, that number you can read on the balance sheet, which happened preparing for an increased sales in Q2 and Q3. So that's typical for Q1. Another typical Q1 outflow search, for example, is taxes and profit sharing.

接著談現金流。隨著定價環境與展望改善，我們對現金流產生能力的預期也在提高。第一季現金流較為疲弱，主要是因為庫存出現約1.6億美元的季節性增加——你們可以在資產負債表上看到這個數字——這是為了準備第二季與第三季銷售增加。因此這是第一季的典型情況。另一個典型的第一季現金流出項目，例如，是稅款與盈餘分紅。

Going forward through year-end, under our current market outlook, we expect to see a strong improvement in quarterly cash flows due to seasonally stronger demand and the drawdown of inventories. But still, we expect our working capital to end the year approximately $150 million above Q4 2024. And driven primarily by the strong increase in the overall level of sales in Brazil. And also because of higher prices of raw materials, mainly sulfur.

展望未來直到年底，在我們目前的市場展望下，我們預期季度現金流將因季節性需求轉強以及庫存回落而顯著改善。但即便如此，我們仍預期年底營運資金將較2024年第四季高出約1.5億美元。主要是由巴西整體銷售水準大幅提升所帶動。同時也因原材料價格較高，主要是硫磺。

So although cash flow outlook for 2025 is good, it will be impacted by those factors. Finally, a note on our capital reallocation program. The discussion with counterparties on the noncore potash assets, Carlsbad and Taquari have really accelerated. We have communicated very long ago, our desire for our strategic solution for Carlsbad. Now we can firmly say that Taquari is in the same bucket, especially in light of the capital requirements going forward. These investments are not the best allocation of our capital in our portfolio, so we better let someone come in and take them.

因此，雖然2025年的現金流展望良好，但仍會受到上述因素影響。最後補充我們的資本再配置計畫。與交易對手就非核心鉀肥資產 Carlsbad 與 Taquari 的討論確實已大幅加速。我們很久以前就已對外溝通，我們希望為 Carlsbad 找到策略性解決方案。現在我們可以明確地說，Taquari 也屬於同一類，尤其考量未來的資本需求。這些投資並非我們投資組合中最佳的資本配置，因此我們最好讓其他人進來接手。

Bruce, back to you.

Bruce，交給你。

Thank you, Luciano. To summarize, Mosaic delivered a solid quarter, and our outlook for 2025 is positive with our improving operational performance, lower cost profiles and excellent financial foundation. Mosaic is well positioned to benefit from the strong market conditions we see ahead and to navigate effectively in the ever-changing geopolitical landscape.

謝謝你，Luciano。總結來說，Mosaic 交出穩健的一季；隨著營運表現改善、成本結構下降以及優異的財務基礎，我們對 2025 年的展望正向。Mosaic 已做好充分準備，可望受惠於我們所見的強勁市場環境，並能在不斷變化的地緣政治局勢中有效應對。

Now operator, we would like to take questions from the audience.

現在，接線員，我們想要開始接受聽眾提問。

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。(接線員指示)

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

Chris Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

Great, thank you, Bruce, something tells me you already know that question I'm going to ask. But if we stood at in your boardroom during the first quarter, how do you adequate fully assessed yourself when it came to Bartow, New Wales and kind of getting into Riverview in Louisiana. What would be the same answer as you stand here today, mid-2Q?

很好，謝謝你，Bruce；我覺得你大概已經知道我要問什麼了。但如果我們回到第一季、站在你們董事會會議室裡，你們在評估 Bartow、New Wales，以及在路易斯安那州 Riverview 的推進情況時，會如何充分檢視自己？而你今天站在這裡、第二季中段，答案會不會一樣？

And generally, what are the puts and takes for the second half when you think about kind of finally getting to the end of what has been a multiyear journey. Thank you.

另外，整體來看，當你想到下半年、也就是終於要走到這段多年旅程的尾聲時，主要的利多與利空因素是什麼？謝謝。

Hey, Chris, thanks for your question. I apologize to everyone. I've come down with a little bit of cold, so bear with my voice. I think we would have been in a similar position, Chris, today versus what we said now. There have been some puts and takes as we went into what we knew and talked about a lot going into this turnaround season in quarter one.

嗨，Chris，謝謝你的問題。也跟大家說聲抱歉。我有點感冒，所以請包涵我的聲音。我想我們今天的狀況，和我們當時所說的相比，會是相近的，Chris。在第一季進入這個我們早就知道、也談了很多的歲修季時，確實有一些利多與利空的拉鋸。

We knew it was going to be heavy at New Wales and Bartow. That turned out to be the case. And as always, when you get into equipment, you have some discoverables of New Wales, we had some brick work in a reactor and phosphoric acid that was unanticipated that took a couple of extra days from a turnaround standpoint.

我們知道 New Wales 和 Bartow 的工作量會很重。結果也確實如此。而且一如往常，當你進到設備裡面時，總會發現一些額外狀況；在 New Wales，我們在反應器以及磷酸相關的磚襯工程上，出現了原先未預期的項目，從歲修角度來看因此多花了幾天。

We're also doing some reliability enhancement projects, as we talked about as well in our Analyst Day. And those are paying off as well. And part of those are in [jip] handling, particularly at New Wales. We did our first train of replacing our Gypsum handling system there, had some commissioning issues as they being the first of three that we're going to do. And those were a little more of a struggle than we hoped.

我們也在做一些可靠度提升專案，正如我們在分析師日所談到的。這些也正在帶來成效。其中一部分是在 [jip] 物料處理上，特別是在 New Wales。我們在那裡進行了第一條線的石膏處理系統更換；由於這是三條線中的第一條，在試車投運上遇到一些問題。這些狀況比我們原先希望的更棘手一些。

But the good news is the benefits there have paid off. We're seeing at target rates at New Wales now. We're seeing at target rates at Bartow now. And then we've accelerated some of the additional dip handling work at New Wales more into the first half. So first half, you may see a little more on the reliability side for improvements that we're going to do a little bit more downtime.

但好消息是，相關效益已經展現。我們現在看到 New Wales 已達到目標產能運轉。Bartow 也已達到目標產能運轉。另外，我們也把 New Wales 其他的 dip handling 工作加速、更多提前到上半年來做。因此在上半年，你可能會在可靠度改善面看到我們做更多工作、也會有多一些停機時間。

But really, what we're doing is after the learnings of the first train we did at New Wales, we're just going to apply that to the other two trains and really just insulate the back half of the year's performance. So we're very optimistic about what we're seeing. As you said, Chris, a couple of puts and takes, but we're seeing the results pay off on all of the hard work. And again, accelerating some of the work that we have under our control to just get through this cycle even that much faster and that much better going into the back half of the year.

但實際上，我們是在吸收 New Wales 第一條線的經驗後，把這些學習套用到另外兩條線，真正去保護今年下半年的表現。所以我們對目前看到的狀況非常樂觀。如你所說，Chris，確實有一些利多與利空的拉鋸，但我們看到所有辛苦工作的成果正在回收。同時，我們也把一些在我們可控範圍內的工作加速推進，讓我們能更快、更順利地度過這個週期，並以更好的狀態進入下半年。

David Symonds, BNP Paribas.

David Symonds，法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通（JPMorgan）。

Thanks very much. In the light of tariffs of material into the United States, are your ammonia costs rising or are there ways that you can work to keep them under better control?

非常感謝。考量到進口到美國的材料關稅，你們的氨成本是否正在上升？或者你們是否有方法可以讓成本維持在更可控的範圍內？

Yeah, thanks Jeff, and I know there's been some reports on things in the last couple of days, but our purchases as of now, have not incurred any tariff impacts. And to say that, that would be the case in going forward in permanency, I don't know, but ammonia is exempt in the United States, and that's where we have most of our supply coming from with our contracts in CF, particularly.

是的，謝謝 Jeff。我知道過去幾天有一些相關報導，但就目前為止，我們的採購尚未產生任何關稅影響。至於未來是否會永久如此，我不確定；不過氨在美國是豁免的，而我們大部分供應來源也正是來自美國，尤其是我們與 CF 的合約供應。

And then we are seeing good production out of our own assets in Louisiana. And we don't expect much over 20%, if not less than 20% exposure to any market forces anyways, given the product mix of our ammonia. So heavy on our supply contracts, strategic supply contracts, which to date, we're not seeing tariff impacts. And heavy where we can on our own production, tariff-free. And then exposure is pretty low on the rest of our product needs, Jeff, and like I said, to date, we haven't seen tariff impacts.

此外，我們在路易斯安那州自有資產的產量表現良好。而且考量到我們氨產品的組合，我們預期即使受到市場力量影響的曝險也不會超過 20%，甚至可能低於 20%。因此，我們主要依賴供應合約、策略性供應合約；截至目前，我們沒有看到關稅影響。同時，在可行範圍內也盡量使用我們自有、免關稅的產量。至於其餘產品需求的曝險也相當低，Jeff；如我所說，到目前為止我們尚未看到關稅影響。

David Symonds, BNP Paribas.

David Symonds，法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）。

Hi guys, can you hear me now?

嗨，各位，現在聽得到我嗎？

Hello?

哈囉？

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們聽得到。

David, you are audible. You may proceed with your question.

David，你的聲音很清楚。你可以開始提問。

Okay, brilliant. Sorry about that. We're having some tech issues on this side. I had a couple more on phosphates, please. So the first one on DAP prices. So if I look at market prices and then look at the range that you're stating, it looks like you could be being conservative there, I would estimate. So -- maybe you could talk about price realization in April? And if there's any reason that you wouldn't be right at the top end of that range that you've given for the realized that process?

好，太好了。抱歉剛剛那樣。我們這邊有一些技術問題。我還有幾個關於磷酸鹽的問題。第一個是關於 DAP 價格。如果我看市場價格，再看你們所提供的區間，感覺你們的假設可能偏保守，我會這樣估計。所以——也許你們可以談談 4 月的價格實現情況？以及是否有任何原因，會讓你們無法落在你們所給的實現價格區間上緣？

And then the second question, so I hear you on maintenance cost. But if I look at the absolute costs in phosphate, it was up $20 million year-on-year, and that's with production lower. And also the idle and turnaround cost line that you give was also lower year-on-year. So just some more color on that would be. Is there some maintenance cost that is outside of that idle and turnaround time? Thanks a lot.

第二個問題：我理解你們提到維修成本。但如果我看磷酸鹽的絕對成本，年增了 2,000 萬美元，而且是在產量更低的情況下。另外，你們提供的停產與歲修成本那一行，年比年也更低。所以想請你們再多補充一些背景。是否有一些維修成本是落在停產與歲修時間之外？非常感謝。

Hey, David, thank you. Let me start with your last question. So our cost on per cost basis per tonne basis, mostly fixed cost absorption, a big impact to that given the heavy turnaround activity. But yes, we've had some extraordinary maintenance costs that don't anticipate being reoccurring as we continue to invest in getting reliability back up with a full focus on that. Would the debt price, let me actually just turn it over to Jenny and talk about that.

嗨，David，謝謝你。我先回答你最後一個問題。我們的單位成本（每噸成本）主要受到固定成本吸收的影響，而密集的歲修活動對此有很大的衝擊。但沒錯，我們確實有一些非經常性的特殊維修成本；隨著我們持續投資、把可靠度拉回來並全力聚焦在這件事上，我們不預期這些成本會重複發生。至於 DAP 價格，我先把問題交給 Jenny，請她來說明。

Sure. On DAP prices, I think you're already that the market has been really keeping the resilience for the DAP market, DAP prices our realized April DAP prices are actually higher than the high end of the range. We anticipated, the market is going to keep the strength for the remaining of the quarter, and you might be right. We probably would see some upside on the prices for the tonnes we haven't realized for the remaining of the quarter.

當然。關於 DAP 價格，我想你已經知道市場一直對 DAP 市場展現出相當的韌性；我們 4 月實現的 DAP 價格實際上高於我們先前預期區間的上緣。我們原本預期市場在本季剩餘時間會維持強勢，而你可能是對的。就本季剩餘尚未實現的噸數而言，我們可能會看到價格還有一些上行空間。

And once again, we do not anticipate any price reset post the spring season in North America and the prices in the rest of the world, as you can see, it's pretty much at parity at $700 level. We foresee this price is going to stay. Thanks.

再重申一次，我們不預期北美春耕季結束後會有任何價格重設；而世界其他地區的價格，如你所見，基本上在 700 美元水準附近持平。我們預期這個價格將會維持。謝謝。

Just let me add, David, on this cost thing. We do anticipate once we get back as we said on Analyst Day, to our 2 million tonne run rate in the back half of the year. And Luciano talked about this in the opening comments as well. Conversion costs will be in that $95 to $100 range. So we're confident in that. And as we get through these next few months of extraordinary activities, that's what you should expect.

David，我再補充一下成本這件事。我們確實預期，一旦我們如同在分析師日所說，在下半年回到每年 200 萬噸的運轉率。Luciano 在開場致詞也提到這點。轉換成本將落在每噸 95 到 100 美元的區間。所以我們對此很有信心。而在接下來幾個月的非常態作業告一段落後，你應該就會看到這樣的水準。

Joel Jackson, BMO.

Joel Jackson，BMO。

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Obviously, the potash market is nice. It's rising. Things are good, demand driven. Jenny and the rest of the team, I thought some of your comments interesting. I also have been following the Belarusian shipments and exports. You talked about, let's wait to see if Q2 shipments come down because Q1 was so good, but we know overnight, Jenny, right? That we saw Belarus exports be I think 1.1 million tonnes in April, so even higher.

嗨，各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。顯然，鉀肥市場表現不錯。正在上漲。整體狀況良好，由需求帶動。Jenny 以及團隊其他成員，我覺得你們的一些評論很有意思。我也一直在追蹤白俄羅斯的出貨與出口。你提到，先觀察第二季出貨是否會下滑，因為第一季非常強勁；但我們也知道，Jenny，幾乎是一夜之間，對吧？我們看到白俄羅斯 4 月出口大概是 110 萬噸，甚至更高。

It doesn't seem to have any kind of supply issues -- so as you think about strategy wise here, Capitec, are you wondering if maybe there are no Belarusian maintenance cuts, so it's coming later? I mean you're raising your volume, but it seems like this has been not really a supply decrease here. What do you think?

看起來並沒有任何供應問題——所以從策略角度來看，Capitec，你們是否在想也許白俄羅斯並沒有維修導致的減產，可能只是延後發生？我的意思是你們提高了出貨量，但看起來這裡並沒有真正的供應下降。你怎麼看？

Joel, let me just turn it over to Jenny, our asking her specifically, so I'll let her answer it.

Joel，我先把這題交給 Jenny，因為你是特別問她，所以我讓她來回答。

Sure. Joe, I think we agree with you on specifically on Belarusians MOP export. We have not seen a shipment reduction as what they announced as a part of the maintenance and the production cut or whatever, however, we have seen production cut that is coming out of China.

好的。Joel，我想我們同意你對白俄羅斯 MOP（氯化鉀）出口的看法。我們並沒有看到他們先前宣布、作為維修與減產（或其他措施）一部分所說的出貨減少；不過，我們確實看到中國出現了減產。

And we also have seen the announcement from Chile SQM on their repurpose of their potash production. So to answer your question, have we seen shipment reduction for the first four months, especially for the first quarter, yes, we have seen import reduction in China, which is the largest market for potash for the first quarter, down by 7%, and which added to the lower production of domestic production, the inventory in China is coming to a very, very low inventory at port less than 2 million tonnes which is 30% lower than the same time of last year.

我們也看到智利 SQM 宣布調整其鉀肥產能用途。所以回答你的問題：在前四個月、特別是第一季，我們是否看到出貨減少？是的，我們看到中國（第一季）進口量下降；中國是全球最大的鉀肥市場，第一季進口下滑 7%。

And in-country inventory for local producers as they reported, was also down by 30%. So the low inventory in situation is a result of reduced the -- reduction from major producers for that region. So I would also want to add to with this reduced shipment of domestic reduction in China and also reduce the shipment of multiple international suppliers into China. China has seen a very critical low inventory situation for potash, which set very well for the coming contract negotiation. I will stop here. Thank you.

而據當地生產商回報，其國內庫存也下降了 30%。因此，低庫存的情況是該區域主要生產商供給減少所造成的結果。我也想補充，除了中國國內供給下降之外，多家國際供應商對中國的出貨也有所減少。中國的鉀肥庫存已處於非常關鍵的低位，這對即將到來的合約談判非常有利。我就說到這裡。謝謝。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

Kristen Owen，Oppenheimer。

Hi, thank you for the question. Sort of a follow-up of more closer to home. Just can you give us an update on the cadence of your cost of production for potash as you go through the year? You noted some of the headwinds in Q1. But given the volume update and your maintained target, just wondering how we should think about the cadence of cash cost of production of potash? Thank you.

嗨，謝謝讓我提問。算是更貼近本土的追問。你們能否更新一下今年鉀肥生產成本的變化節奏？你們提到第一季有一些逆風。但考量到出貨量更新以及你們維持的目標，我想了解我們應該如何看待鉀肥現金生產成本在全年各季的走勢？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks, Kristen. Really, just to reiterate, Q1 was a little bit of a product mix issue as well as Belle Plaine was more impacted to these weather constraints that we had caused them to curtail some of their production. Belle Plaine being one of our lowest-cost producers. Now that Belle Plaine is back up and running full fluidity of the supply chain is good.

好的，謝謝你，Kristen。簡單重申一下：第一季有一部分是產品組合的問題，另外 Belle Plaine 也更受到我們遭遇的天候限制影響，導致他們必須縮減部分產量。而 Belle Plaine 是我們成本最低的生產基地之一。現在 Belle Plaine 已恢復運轉，供應鏈的流動性也良好。

We continue to make good progress on the Esterhazy hydrofloat project, adding 400,000 tonnes in the back half of the year at that run rate. We do expect cost per tonne to dramatically improve as we go from quarter two to quarter three to quarter four as those low-cost tonnes at Esterhazy come more into the marketplace.

我們在 Esterhazy 的 hydrofloat 專案上持續取得良好進展，在下半年以該運轉率可增加 40 萬噸。隨著 Esterhazy 的低成本噸數更多進入市場，我們預期每噸成本將在第二季到第三季、再到第四季的過程中顯著改善。

So Luciano, do you have a little bit more you want to talk about?

Luciano，你還有沒有想補充的？

(technical difficulty) Sorry, it was -- with the mic muted. I'll repeat. I was saying that the achievement of the target range could come as early as Q2 if we deliver what's in the plan. So we're positive on that.

(技術問題) 抱歉，剛才——麥克風是靜音的。我再說一次。我剛才是說，如果我們按計畫交付，達到目標區間可能最早在第二季就能實現。所以我們對此持正面看法。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

Andrew Wong，RBC Capital Markets。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Can you just provide some thoughts on Mosaic rule and how the S&D plays out over the next, say, like 6 to 12 months as production improves. Does that impact the market balances and pricing? I know Jenny, you said that the US summer prices are unlikely to reset. But I'm assuming there's a lot of the production that Mosaic is producing would go to the domestic market.

嗨，早安。謝謝讓我提問。你能否談談 Mosaic 的角色，以及在未來大約 6 到 12 個月、隨著產量改善，供需（S&D）會如何演變？這會影響市場平衡與定價嗎？我知道 Jenny 你說美國夏季價格不太可能重設。但我猜 Mosaic 增加的產量有很大一部分會供應國內市場。

So I'm just curious how that plays out the making. Thank you.

所以我很好奇這在市場上會如何發酵。謝謝。

Yeah, thanks, Andrew. We provided some new graphics in our earnings deck this time to kind of talk about how we see supply and demand growth in each of the two major commodities, phosphate and potash. So there is some detail there. But generally, when you look at phosphate, as we see our production rise in the back half of the year, which we are already anticipating in our kind of supply adds from 2024 to 2025.

好的，謝謝你，Andrew。我們這次在財報簡報中提供了一些新的圖表，用來說明我們如何看待兩大主要商品——磷酸鹽與鉀肥——各自的供需成長。裡面有一些細節。但整體而言，當你看磷酸鹽時，隨著我們下半年產量提升——這也已反映在我們對 2024 到 2025 年供給增量的預期中。

When you look over on the intersection of supply and demand, you still see pretty much supply constraints. So right now, we would say, and I'll let Jenny talk about it in more detail that demand is constrained by supply, particularly in phosphates.

當你看供需交會點時，仍然可以看到供給基本上是受限的。所以目前我們會說——我也會讓 Jenny 更詳細說明——需求受到供給限制，特別是在磷酸鹽方面。

So adding that little bit of additional production, from Mosaic in the back half of the year. As we anticipate that, we see it still being very constructive to tight on the supply and demand balance. So Jenny, anything to add?

因此，在下半年來自 Mosaic 的那一點額外產量增加。在我們預期這一點的同時，我們仍然認為這對供需平衡偏緊、甚至更趨緊張是非常具有建設性的。所以 Jenny，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Sure. I think, Andrew, your question probably more towards to phosphate. I would just simply say the demand in India, the pent-up demand in India is going to consume any operational improvement and also the recovery of production from Lavinia. So meaning the improvement from Mosaic and some of our peers in North America market plus recovery in a previous Lavinia production site will only be able to support the demand issues in India.

當然。我想，Andrew，你的問題可能更偏向磷酸鹽。我只想簡單說，印度的需求、印度的累積（遞延）需求，將會消化任何營運改善，以及 Lavinia 產量的恢復。也就是說，Mosaic 以及我們在北美市場的一些同業的改善，加上先前 Lavinia 生產基地的復產，最多只能支撐印度的需求缺口。

So to give you some specifics, India demand was down last year on DAP. And the government -- their government has realized that this is an issue. And with the latest policy support, they will need to buy 2 million tonnes for the coming Kharif season, and that season they only got 300,000 tonnes. With their agreement with OCP that demand cannot be unmet but only source of Marco.

提供一些具體數字，印度去年的 DAP 需求是下滑的。而政府——他們的政府已經意識到這是一個問題。在最新的政策支持下，他們在即將到來的 Kharif 季需要採購 200 萬噸，但在那個季節他們只拿到 30 萬噸。依照他們與 OCP 的協議，需求不能無法被滿足，但唯一來源是 Marco。

So to your questions on the movement of product between North America, which is our home market and other markets, overall phosphate market is global market. As we know, for over 40% of the demand is actually in the market which are subsidized by the government. There is no affordability issues. And when that comes to the nonsubsidized market, especially in Americas, we might see some demand challenges for the second half of the year for North America, which is going to be well offset by the demand in Brazil.

至於你問到北美（我們的本土市場）與其他市場之間的產品流向，整體而言磷酸鹽市場是全球性市場。如我們所知，超過 40% 的需求其實來自政府補貼的市場。因此不存在可負擔性問題。而在非補貼市場，特別是在美洲，我們可能會在今年下半年看到北美出現一些需求挑戰，但這將會被巴西的需求很好地抵消。

As we mentioned earlier, the farm economics there are very different than US. So overall, the market are going to be tight. Mosaic, we might make some movement of the product between the US, the whole market and the rest of the world if it is needed. In fact, we -- as we are watching very closely on the affordability issues of phosphate in the US market.

如我們先前提到，那裡的農場經濟狀況與美國非常不同。所以整體市場將會偏緊。如果有需要，Mosaic 可能會在美國、本土市場與世界其他地區之間做一些產品調撥。事實上，我們——正非常密切地關注磷酸鹽在美國市場的可負擔性問題。

And as we are ramping up spring season, and we saw the customers might delay their purchases for the same concerns that we have. And the fact is that over the last week, we started to have major customers in the US came forward to buy their summer fuel phosphate at today's price. So we're watching the affordability issues. The market is really tight. Eventually, phosphate tonnes just like any other products.

而在我們逐步進入春耕旺季時，我們看到客戶可能會因為與我們相同的擔憂而延後採購。但事實是，在過去一週，我們開始看到美國的大型客戶主動以今天的價格來購買他們夏季用的磷酸鹽肥料。所以我們正在觀察可負擔性問題。市場真的非常緊。最終，磷酸鹽噸數就像任何其他產品一樣。

The price is going to really define where it can be used as fast to use. We believe the stripping margin price will stay elevated, given even with the headwinds.

價格將真正決定它能以多快的速度被使用、以及用在哪裡。我們相信，即使面臨逆風，剝離後的利潤（stripping margin）價格仍將維持在高位。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne。

Yes, thank you. You have these 15-year supply and demand charts for phosphate and potash that are in your slide deck that are very interesting particularly the phosphate chart that looks a bit unsustainable here with what you're projecting for a fourth year of a meaningful price rationing demand.

是的，謝謝。你們在簡報中有磷酸鹽與鉀肥的 15 年供需圖表，非常有意思，尤其是磷酸鹽那張圖，看起來你們所預測的連續第四年以顯著的價格配給（rationing）來抑制需求，似乎有點不可持續。

Is there potential that global demand has really more stabilized versus what you're projecting here or do you think that this deficit could drive a yield drag globally this year, or is this driving demand for your biologicals to release the insoluble phosphate in the soil?

是否有可能全球需求其實已經比你們在這裡的預測更趨於穩定？或者你認為這個缺口可能在今年全球造成單產拖累？又或者這正在推動你們的生物製劑需求，用來釋放土壤中不溶性的磷？

Steve, really always appreciate the question. I think it's a combination that I think our biologics for sure help in this regard to get more. Steve, really always appreciate the question. I think it's a combination that I think our biologics for sure, help in this regard to get more. But I'm going to turn it to Jenny and just let her talk a little bit more about it.

Steve，一如既往很感謝你的提問。我認為這是多種因素的組合；我們的生物製劑確實在這方面有幫助，可以取得更多效果。Steve，一如既往很感謝你的提問。我認為這是多種因素的組合；我們的生物製劑確實在這方面有幫助，可以取得更多效果。不過我先把問題交給 Jenny，讓她再多談一點。

Sure. Steve, I think we share the same view as you are. If you look at the overall shipment of phosphate over the last couple of years, that has been an issue. The world would need more phosphate in order to support yield increases to yield level. And the fact, if you look at the yield increases over the last four, five years, has really slowed down versus the trend level.

好的。Steve，我想我們和你的看法一致。如果你看過去幾年磷酸鹽的整體出貨量，確實一直是個問題。全球需要更多磷酸鹽，才能支撐單產提升、回到趨勢水準。而事實上，如果你看過去四、五年的單產增幅，相較於趨勢水準確實已經明顯放緩。

And that is a reflection, potentially a major contributor was really the lower phosphate application around the globe. So and also, I appreciate that you pointed out how biologicals can help in this kind of situation, which basically help farmers to maximize or improve the efficiency for the investments they made on phosphate. And even it's even more meaningful today at the price level that we all believe it is a relatively high level for the farmers.

這反映出一個現象：潛在的主要原因之一，確實是全球磷肥施用量偏低。同時也謝謝你指出生物製劑在這種情況下能提供幫助——基本上是幫助農民把他們在磷酸鹽上的投入效益最大化或提升使用效率。而在我們都認為對農民而言相對偏高的價格水準下，這點在今天更具意義。

By investing in biologicals to maximize their investment in this higher-priced phosphate was really the point that we're communicating with the farmers, both in North America and also in Brazil. And we foresee this biological product will bring the benefit to the farmers not only increase the yield, but also help them to improve their ROI return on investment.

透過投資生物製劑來最大化他們在高價磷酸鹽上的投入，正是我們在北美以及巴西與農民溝通的重點。我們預期這項生物產品將為農民帶來效益，不僅提高單產，也能幫助他們改善投資報酬率（ROI）。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews。

Thank you. I appreciate the comments on the working capital in terms of cash flow. Are there any other line items in cash flow from operations that are going to be material deviations, either headwinds or tailwinds this year versus last year? And is it possible to talk about what you think your free cash flow conversion of EBITDA in a percentage terms and a range might be this year?

謝謝。我很感謝你們對營運資金在現金流方面的評論。今年相較去年，營運活動現金流中是否還有其他科目會出現重大偏離（不論是逆風或順風）？另外，是否可以談談你們今年自由現金流對 EBITDA 的轉換率，以百分比來看大概會落在什麼區間？

Hey, Vincent, I'm going to turn this straight over to Luciano.

嗨，Vincent，我直接把這題交給 Luciano。

Vincent, I don't anticipate any, I would say, normal components in cash flow for this year. So and because the cash conversion was low last year, pretty much every additional tonne of every additional dollar of EBITDA should flow after tax towards cash flows, absent the working capital increase that we gave. We're going to be -- I'm not going to give you let's say, a precise number for cash flow conversion.

Vincent，我不預期今年在現金流方面會有任何——我會說——非正常的組成項目。而且由於去年現金轉換率偏低，今年每增加一噸、每增加 1 美元的 EBITDA，在扣稅後基本上都應該會轉化為現金流入，除非出現我們提到的營運資金增加。我們將會——我不會給你一個精確的現金流轉換數字。

But I think with this directionally, you should be able to model it based on that assumption. So every incremental EBITDA that you forecast for this year absent the $150 million working capital increase for Brazil should flow after taxes towards cash flows.

但我認為就方向性而言，你應該可以基於這個假設來建模。因此，在不考慮巴西 1.5 億美元營運資金增加的情況下，你對今年所預測的每一筆增量 EBITDA，在扣稅後都應該會流向現金流。

I'd like to take this opportunity to correct the information that I gave a little ago. I said that potash costs should converge into the range already in Q2. I was looking at the wrong column. I'm sorry for that. It should be in range for the second half, so Q3 and Q4, that's the same thing for phosphates as well. Just given that color, Q3 and Q4 should be in range. When you look at the full year, the full year for potash should be in range. The full year for phosphates should be a little over range, the target range just because the Q1 number was so high.

我想藉此機會更正我剛才提供的一點資訊。我說鉀肥成本應該在第二季就會收斂到既定區間內。我看錯了欄位。對此我很抱歉。應該是在下半年，也就是第三季和第四季，成本才會落在區間內；磷酸鹽也是同樣情況。補充這點背景後，第三季和第四季應該會落在區間內。若看全年，鉀肥全年應該會落在區間內。磷酸鹽全年則會略高於目標區間，主要是因為第一季的數字太高。

Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank.

Ben Isaacson，豐業銀行（Scotiabank）。

Thank you very much, and good morning everyone. I'd just like to go back to the Analyst Day and just asked a question on Mosaic Biosciences. So you're targeting $70 million of revenue this year, profitability in Q4. And then in five years from now, $200 million of EBITDA. Can you talk about the shape of that EBITDA growth? What do the margins look like? And what's the plan with this business? I mean you don't want a commodity multiple to smother it. So is the intention to spin it off eventually? Thank you.

非常感謝，大家早安。我想回到分析師日，針對 Mosaic Biosciences 問一個問題。你們今年的目標是 7,000 萬美元營收，並在第四季實現獲利。然後在五年後，達到 2 億美元的 EBITDA。能否談談 EBITDA 成長的輪廓？利潤率看起來會是什麼樣子？以及這項業務的規劃是什麼？我的意思是，你們不希望被商品型估值倍數壓住。所以是否有意圖最終將其分拆出去？謝謝。

Hey Ben, thank you. I'm going to let Jenny take most of this question, but we're seeing good results out of the Bioscience. And as you said, we do -- and what we said in our opening comments anticipate good revenues as we laid out and continuing to grow over the five-year period as we laid out in Analyst Day as well. We actually think there might be even additional upside to those numbers. But let me get over to Jenny and let her talk about some of the more specifics.

嗨 Ben，謝謝你。我會讓 Jenny 回答這個問題的大部分內容，但我們在生物科學業務上看到不錯的成果。而且如你所說，我們確實——以及我們在開場評論中所說——預期會如我們所規劃的那樣取得良好營收，並在五年期間持續成長，這也與分析師日所說一致。我們其實認為這些數字可能還有額外上行空間。不過我先交給 Jenny，讓她談一些更具體的內容。

Sure, thank you, Ben, for the questions. I can provide you a little bit more color on our bioscience growth projection. So the growth in the future, including today, are coming from two different types of products. One is our own products, the product that we invested in a discovery, and we did our own product development in the field, and we got our own registration. So this is our Mosaic's own product.

好的，謝謝 Ben 的提問。我可以就我們的生物科學成長預測提供更多細節。未來（包含目前）的成長來自兩種類型的產品。一種是我們自有產品，也就是我們投入研發探索、在田間自行進行產品開發，並取得自有登記（註冊）的產品。這就是我們 Mosaic 自有的產品。

For this type of product, our gross margin is around 60%, 60. In the meantime, at this time, as we are going through product development and the regulatory approval for the products that we haven't really got registration, it takes two to three years depending on countries. In this situation, we are also selling third-party products we call licensed in product.

這類產品的毛利率約為 60%，60%。同時，在我們進行產品開發與法規核准、針對尚未取得登記的產品時，依不同國家通常需要兩到三年。在這種情況下，我們也會銷售第三方產品，我們稱之為授權引進產品（licensed-in product）。

For this product, the gross margin are lower, it's somewhere between 30% to 40%. Going forward, we are going to have major new product introductions in all major markets, as we talked about at Analyst Day by leveraging our market access over the next few years after we get the product registration and so that we can more aggressively grow the products from our own portfolio.

這類產品的毛利率較低，大約在 30% 到 40% 之間。展望未來，我們將在所有主要市場推出重要的新產品導入，正如我們在分析師日所談到的，將在取得產品登記後的未來幾年，運用我們的市場准入能力，更積極地推動自有產品組合的成長。

So that's basically the story for our Bioscience. As you can expect that we're going to disclose more going forward on our new product introduction of our new product administration and Neptunion launch last month in China, it's just a starting point. Thanks.

這基本上就是我們生物科學業務的故事。如你所預期，我們未來會就新產品導入披露更多資訊；我們上個月在中國推出的新產品施用方案與 Neptunion 上市，只是個起點。謝謝。

Thanks. But then we see this very complementary to the rest of our business with the plant in Crop Nutrition, adding soil health to this. We do expect as EBITDA continues to grow to meaningful numbers that maybe we do benefit from some parts valuation. And this is something we're looking forward to and continue to discuss as that business continues to accelerate and grow over the near future.

謝謝。此外，我們也認為這與我們其他業務高度互補，結合我們在作物營養（Crop Nutrition）的工廠，並在此基礎上加入土壤健康。我們確實預期，隨著 EBITDA 成長到具規模且有意義的數字，我們或許能從分部估值（sum-of-the-parts valuation）的某些部分受益。這也是我們期待的方向，並會隨著該業務在近期持續加速與成長，繼續討論。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo

Richard Garchitorena，富國銀行（Wells Fargo）

Great, thank you. So maybe we can turn to Brazil, Luciano. If we can dig into the EBITDA upside you were talking about for the second quarter, maybe what's driving that potential $150 million I noticed production volumes -- or sorry, sales volumes at felt in the first quarter were up 8%. So I would expect a meaningful increase to that to get to the 15% full year increase.

很好，謝謝。那我們或許可以談談巴西，Luciano。如果我們深入看看你提到第二季 EBITDA 的上行空間，可能是什麼在驅動你所說的那個 1.5 億美元潛在增量？我注意到第一季的銷售量——抱歉，是 Fertilizantes 的銷售量——成長了 8%。所以我會預期要達到全年 15% 的成長，後續應該會有顯著提升。

And then also just maybe if you had any color on, has things really improved in terms of sentiment since the beginning of the year, obviously, a lot of trade concerns and improve that beneficiary, mainly being Brazil. what are your expectations for volumes at the start of the year versus today? Thank you.

另外也想請教，你是否能分享一些看法：自年初以來市場情緒是否真的改善了？顯然有很多貿易方面的疑慮，而主要受益者似乎是巴西。你們對年初時的量的預期，與今天相比有何不同？謝謝。

Thanks, Richard, for your question. Let me just turn it over to Luciano to address first half. And then if Jenny's got commentary on some of the back half question, let her take it.

謝謝你，Richard，謝謝你的問題。我先把問題交給 Luciano，請他先回應上半年部分。然後如果 Jenny 對下半年問題有補充，就讓她來回答。

Yeah. Well, thanks. So the main concept here is that Q1 in Fertilizantes was mostly driven by our production business. Really, the distribution part of it didn't kick in, and it will kick in approximately 300,000 tonnes were sold from our own production and 1.5 million from distribution. If you multiply 1.5 million by, let's say, $24 per tonne of distribution margin, you get to a $36 million EBITDA distribution, that's the foreign exchange impact you get to $18 million.

是的。嗯，謝謝。這裡的核心概念是，Fertilizantes 第一季主要是由我們的生產業務所帶動。實際上，分銷（distribution）部分尚未發力，而它將會開始發力；大約有 30 萬噸來自我們自有生產的銷售，另有 150 萬噸來自分銷。如果你把 150 萬噸乘上、比方說，每噸 24 美元的分銷毛利，你會得到 3,600 萬美元的分銷 EBITDA，再扣除外匯影響後，約為 1,800 萬美元。

So out of the $122 million, only $18 million was distribution. So by the same token, if you, for example, assume that sales and distribution are going to go from 1.5 to 2.1. If you multiply it by something in the mid-$30 to $40.

所以在 1.22 億美元之中，只有 1,800 萬美元來自分銷。同理，如果你例如假設銷售與分銷將從 150 萬噸增加到 210 萬噸，並乘上每噸約 30 多到 40 美元的水準。

And if you remove still another FX impact from 5 to 10, you get to about USD55 million. So if you add this to the performance of the production business in the first quarter, which was $100 million. That puts a floor of about $150 million for the performance in Q2. But remember also the production business will also increase sales in Q2.

再扣除另一個外匯影響（約 500 萬到 1,000 萬美元），你大概會得到約 5,500 萬美元。因此，如果你把這加到第一季生產業務的表現（約 1 億美元）上，那麼第二季表現的底線大約就是 1.5 億美元。但也請記得，生產業務在第二季的銷售也會增加。

So therefore, that's why we're very confident that the $150 million is -- might be a conservative estimate for the performance in Q2.

因此，這就是為什麼我們非常有信心，1.5 億美元——可能仍是對第二季表現相對保守的估計。

Jenny, anything to add on the market?

Jenny，市場方面有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, probably add a little bit on the market. We are expecting Brazil market to grow this year. It is partially also because of the increased acreage from both corn and soybean. And as we mentioned earlier, trade flow change has really benefited the Brazilian farmers. We are seeing this growth of the market.

是的，可能補充一點市場面的看法。我們預期巴西市場今年會成長。部分原因也來自玉米與大豆的種植面積增加。而且如我們先前提到的，貿易流向的改變確實讓巴西農民受益。我們正在看到市場的成長。

For Mosaic's volume growth, as we projected for the rest of the year, it is really coming from partially the market growth, partially it's really our penetration into the new regions where we didn't really participate in the past, meaning on northern part of the region, with Palmeirante going to up and running from July onwards.

至於 Mosaic 的出貨量成長，如我們對今年其餘時間的預測，主要部分來自市場成長，另一部分則來自我們滲透到過去未真正參與的新區域，也就是該地區北部；Palmeirante 將自 7 月起開始投產並運轉。

We are ready to really capture the growth in that part of the region. That gives us the opportunity to grow and also to capture higher share in the market. Lastly, I would say the headwinds in Brazil market are related to the credit issues and also some of the high interest rate environment. It is still a challenge for the market. And we've been very diligent and disciplined in managing our credit risk as we operate and grow in that market.

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

Lucas Beaumont，瑞銀。

Well, thank you. Yeah, I just wanted to clarify on the phosphate volume production outlook. So you kept your target unchanged there. But with where your first half guidance is in that sort of 3.3 million tonne range, you need to kind of hit 2 million tonnes or higher just to get to the bottom of the annual range in the second half. So I was just wondering, does that mean now you're probably pointing towards the low end of that range? Or do you think you can even get above 2 million tonnes a quarter in the second half to kind of still be either in the middle or at the upper end of the range side?

好的，謝謝。是的，我只是想釐清一下磷酸鹽產量的展望。所以你們那邊維持目標不變。但以你們上半年指引大約在 330 萬噸左右來看，下半年要達到全年區間下緣，你們就得做到 200 萬噸或更高。所以我想問的是，這是否表示你們現在可能偏向該區間的低端？或者你們認為下半年每季甚至可以超過 200 萬噸，從而仍能落在區間中段或上緣？

Hey Lucas, thanks. Yeah, I know that you're putting single points together. But our overall annual guidance still is 7.2 million to 7.6 million tonnes for phosphate. And I think as we've talked about our quarterly kind of range, 1.8 million to 2.2 million tonnes, I think there is upside to the two based on capability at our facilities.

嗨 Lucas，謝謝。是的，我知道你是在把一些單點資訊串起來看。但我們對磷酸鹽的全年整體指引仍是 720 萬噸到 760 萬噸。而且我想，正如我們談過的，我們每季大概的區間是 180 萬噸到 220 萬噸；基於我們各廠的能力，我認為 200 萬噸以上是有上行空間的。

So point for me is that we are feeling very good about the work that's been done, the demonstration of capacity that we're seeing post some of these reliability improvement projects that we know that have been hanging on us as we've tried to step on the accelerator into 2025 and late '24, and that we do feel good about full capacity output in the back half of the year. So again, we still feel good about the 7.2 million to 7.4 million tonne range. And not willing to say that we're coming down to the low end of that by any means.

所以我的重點是：我們對已完成的工作感到非常有信心，尤其是在一些可靠性改善專案之後，我們看到產能的展現；這些專案在我們試圖在 2025 年以及 2024 年下半年加速時，一直是我們的掣肘。現在我們確實對下半年達到滿產出感到樂觀。所以再說一次，我們仍然對 720 萬噸到 740 萬噸的區間很有信心。也完全不願意說我們會往該區間的低端下修。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho

Edlain Rodriguez，瑞穗。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. This is for Bruce and Jenny, I guess. I mean, I know it's hard to do, but given the near-term and medium-term dynamics of the respective industries if you have to choose between P&K, which one would you allocate more capital CapEx to right now?

謝謝。各位早安。我想這題是問 Bruce 和 Jenny 的。我的意思是，我知道這很難回答，但考量各自產業在短期與中期的動態，如果你們必須在磷酸鹽與鉀肥（P&K）之間二選一，現在你們會把更多資本支出（CapEx）配置到哪一個？

Edlain, way to finish the call. I appreciate the question. That is a tough one because we do foresee stripping margins being protracted at a high level for phosphate. I think as I talked about in Analyst Day, we still see very constructive on potash. And over the five-year period, I don't know what long term, medium term range you're thinking about, but let's just use a five-year kind of outlook.

Edlain，你這問題很會收尾。謝謝你的提問。這題很難，因為我們確實預期磷酸鹽的剝採利潤（stripping margins）會在高位維持一段較長時間。我想正如我在分析師日所說，我們對鉀肥仍然看法非常正向。至於五年期間——我不確定你所說的長期、中期區間是怎麼定義的——但我們就用五年的展望來看。

A lot of it, if I were to have a crystal ball and could think about it would be how fast and how lumpy does some of the new supply come on in potash. But we're feeling pretty good about the stripping margins in phosphates. At the end of the day, though, however, the EBITDA to cash conversion in potash is better than it is in phosphate, just because of the large CapEx demands that, that business has with gypsum stars, clay settling areas and just the cost to maintain those facilities.

其中很大一部分，如果我有水晶球能預測的話，會取決於鉀肥新增供給導入的速度有多快、以及節奏有多不均勻（lumpy）。但我們對磷酸鹽的剝採利潤感覺相當不錯。不過歸根結底，鉀肥的 EBITDA 轉現金能力比磷酸鹽更好，原因只是該業務有很大的資本支出需求，例如石膏堆場、黏土沉降區，以及維持這些設施的成本。

So it is a Catch-22. I think we're happy with both children right now, and we're going to continue to invest appropriately in both. And I know that doesn't give you the right answer, but or -- one answer. But it always depends, and it depends on structure, it depends on what's going on in the market.

所以這確實是個兩難（Catch-22）。我想我們現在對兩個「孩子」都很滿意，並且會持續在兩邊做適當投資。我知道這沒有給你一個標準答案——或是一個單一答案。但它總是取決於情況：取決於產業結構，也取決於市場正在發生什麼。

But we feel pretty good about both. And we're going to continue to do the right things and swing CapEx and investment a little bit here or there depending on how things sharpen up from a clarity standpoint, over the next one, three, five years. So I'll leave it at that.

但我們對兩邊都相當有信心。而且我們會持續做正確的事，並在未來一、三、五年，隨著情勢在清晰度上變得更明朗時，視情況把資本支出與投資在兩邊稍微做一些調整。我就先說到這裡。

Just for the thinking about it, the operating leverage in phosphates is huge precisely because it consumes more capital, but also in upturns of the cycle, it tends to surprise on the upside in terms of cash flow generation. So bear this in mind.

補充一點供你思考：磷酸鹽的營運槓桿非常大，正是因為它消耗更多資本；但同時在景氣循環上行時，它在現金流創造方面往往會帶來上行驚喜。請把這點納入考量。

Operator, I think we are ready to close.

接線員，我想我們可以準備結束了。

Certainly, thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bruce Bodine for any closing remarks.

好的，謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Bruce Bodine，請他做結語。

Well, thanks, everyone. I'd like to close our call by reiterating our key messages. First, ag and fertilizer markets are strong and prices for our products are rising. We've had good business conditions to persist through the remainder of the year; second, we are making strides on our work to improve phosphate asset reliability and production, and we are on track to deliver better production numbers this year; third, our market access is a significant strategic advantage.

好的，謝謝各位。我想在結束前重申我們的幾個重點訊息。第一，農業與肥料市場強勁，我們產品價格正在上升。我們預期良好的經營環境將延續到今年剩餘時間；第二，我們在提升磷酸鹽資產可靠性與產量的工作上持續取得進展，並且正按計畫在今年交出更好的產量數字；第三，我們的市場通路是重要的策略優勢。

And it is enabling us to benefit from the strong markets and grow in new ways. For example, we've built a powerful franchise in Brazil, and it is now performing exceptionally well. And our Bioscience business is growing faster than others because we have distribution access. And finally, we continue to make progress in our efforts to reclaim underperforming capital so that we can redeploy in pursuit of higher shareholder returns.

這也讓我們能夠受惠於強勁市場，並以新的方式成長。例如，我們在巴西建立了強大的事業版圖，而現在表現非常出色。同時，我們的生物科學（Bioscience）業務成長速度也快於其他同業，因為我們具備通路與配送的可及性。最後，我們持續推進回收低效資本的工作，以便重新部署資本，追求更高的股東報酬。

All in all, Mosaic is performing well across our businesses and geographies, and we are in excellent position to continue to benefit from the compelling market conditions we expect over the near and medium term. So thank you for joining the call today, and have a great safe day.

總體而言，Mosaic 在各項業務與各地區的表現都很不錯，而且我們處於極佳位置，能在我們預期短期與中期將持續出現的具吸引力市場環境下，繼續受惠。所以感謝各位今天參與電話會議，祝各位今天平安順利。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議已結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。