美盛公司 (MOS) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Mosaic Company's fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Mosaic Company 2025 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，本次會議將被錄音。

And now I'll turn it over to Jason Tremblay.

現在我把電話交給 Jason Tremblay。

Thank you, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer; Luciano Siani Pires, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will review financial results and capital allocation progress. We will then welcome Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President Commercial, to join Bruce and Luciano as we open the floor for questions.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Bruce Bodine 提供；執行副總裁兼財務長 Luciano Siani Pires 將回顧財務結果與資本配置進展。接著我們將歡迎商務執行副總裁 Jenny Wang 加入 Bruce 與 Luciano，一同開放提問。

We will be made forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday and in our report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於關於未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並可能受到重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。

Please note in today's presentation and in our press release and performance data, we'll refer to and provide various financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share, free cash flow, cost per tonne, and adjusted effective tax rate, either on a total company or segment basis. Unless we specifically state otherwise, statements regarding these measures refer to our adjusted non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to our most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release.

請注意，在今日簡報、我們的新聞稿與績效資料中，我們將提及並提供各項財務衡量指標，包括調整後 EBITDA、調整後每股盈餘、自由現金流、每噸成本，以及調整後有效稅率，可能以全公司或分部為基礎呈現。除非我們另有明確說明，關於這些指標的陳述均指我們調整後的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表，可在我們的財報新聞稿中查閱。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Bruce.

現在我想把電話交給 Bruce。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call. As we look back on 2025, I want to start by recognizing the work our teams delivered across Mosaic throughout the year. We asked a lot of our people and they responded with tremendous effort. The other members of the executive team and I are grateful for their dedication.

早安。感謝各位參加我們的電話會議。回顧 2025 年，我想先肯定 Mosaic 全體團隊在一年中所交出的成果。我們對同仁提出了很高的要求，而他們以極大的努力回應。我與其他執行團隊成員都非常感謝他們的投入與奉獻。

I will start today's call with a high-level review of the markets in our business then Luciano will provide some details on our financial expectations for 2026, and Jenny is here to address your market-related questions. Our key messages for today are: first, while the fourth quarter was weaker than we expected due to phosphate demand in the United States, US demand is emerging as farmers prepare for spring planting in North America and global ag fundamentals are solid; second, we are on track to improve phosphate production performance and we have posted consistently good potash production throughout 2025. The work we have completed has restored our operational foundation and positioned Mosaic for a strong 2026; third, we delivered meaningful cost and efficiency progress in 2025. And we have committed to achieve further reductions in 2026; fourth, our extensive market access continues to provide a powerful platform for growth, especially in our Mosaic Biosciences business; and finally, in our capital allocation program, we have divested several noncore assets, Patos de Minas and Taquari, as well as a pending transaction to sell Carlsbad that will allow us to focus attention and capital where it matters.

我將先以高層次回顧我們業務所處的市場，接著 Luciano 會提供我們對 2026 年財務預期的一些細節，而 Jenny 也在此以回應各位與市場相關的問題。我們今天的重點訊息包括：第一，雖然第四季因美國磷酸鹽需求疲弱而較我們預期偏弱，但隨著北美農民為春季播種做準備，美國需求正逐步浮現，且全球農業基本面穩健；第二，我們正按計畫改善磷酸鹽產量表現，且 2025 年全年鉀肥產量持續維持良好；我們已完成的工作已修復營運基礎，並使 Mosaic 為強勁的 2026 年做好準備；第三，2025 年我們在成本與效率方面取得具體進展。並承諾在 2026 年進一步降低成本；第四，我們廣泛的市場通路持續提供強而有力的成長平台，特別是在 Mosaic Biosciences 業務；最後，在資本配置計畫方面，我們已處分數項非核心資產，包括 Patos de Minas 與 Taquari，並有一筆待完成的 Carlsbad 出售交易，將使我們能把注意力與資本集中在最重要之處。

Before I get into a more detailed review of the business and our outlook, I will turn to a high-level view of the market conditions and explain why despite the tough ending to 2025, our long-term outlook remains constructive.

在我更深入回顧業務與展望之前，我先從高層次說明市場狀況，並解釋為何儘管 2025 年收尾艱難，我們的長期展望仍然偏向正面。

US demand, especially for phosphate, fell sharply in the fourth quarter, pressured by affordability challenges and uncertainties surrounding government support. Recently, we have seen an increase in spring inquiries as growers look to nourish their soil, especially after last year's big crop and corresponding nutrient removal. As we enter the buying season across several key geographies, a compressed demand time frame is possible and could place additional strain on logistics capabilities. While overall North America potash and phosphate shipments declined in 2025, Mosaic's North America sales volumes proved more resilient, indicating we captured additional market share.

美國需求，尤其是磷酸鹽，在第四季大幅下滑，主要受到可負擔性挑戰以及政府支持相關不確定性所壓抑。近期我們看到春季詢價增加，因種植戶希望為土壤補充養分，特別是在去年大豐收及相應的養分流失之後。隨著我們進入多個關鍵地區的採購季，需求時間窗可能被壓縮，並可能對物流能力造成額外壓力。雖然 2025 年北美整體鉀肥與磷酸鹽出貨量下滑，但 Mosaic 在北美的銷售量更具韌性，顯示我們取得了更多市占。

Looking ahead, phosphate supply and demand dynamics are supportive as China continues to restrict exports to prioritize domestic demand and lithium iron phosphate battery demand continues to consume an even larger share of the world's phosphoric acid.

展望未來，磷酸鹽供需動態偏向有利，因中國持續限制出口以優先滿足國內需求，而磷酸鐵鋰電池需求也持續消耗全球更大比例的磷酸。

Potash markets remain balanced with prices that appeal to the world's farmers and fertilizer producers alike. As we look at 2026, we expect global potash shipments to approach record levels driven by broad-based demand across most key geographies. And as a result, we expect to continue producing at high operating rates.

鉀肥市場仍維持平衡，價格對全球農民與肥料生產商皆具吸引力。展望 2026 年，我們預期全球鉀肥出貨量將接近歷史新高，主要由多數關鍵地區的廣泛需求所帶動。因此，我們預期將持續以高開工率生產。

While credit constraints remain a challenge in Brazil, expanding planted acreage and rising crop yields bode well for long-term Brazilian fertilizer demand. Demand also remained strong in other key growing regions of the world, including China and India.

雖然巴西的信貸限制仍是一項挑戰，但種植面積擴大與作物單產提升，對巴西肥料長期需求而言是正面訊號。在全球其他主要種植區域，包括中國與印度，需求也依然強勁。

Now, I'll move on to discuss our business and outlook. In phosphate, we delivered strong rock reduction last year, with Florida reaching its highest level in three years and record mining production at Miski Mayo. Our top strategic priority in 2025 was to restore stability in our operations and normalized costs. While the recovery of our production volumes has taken longer than expected, we accomplished a great deal toward that goal.

接下來，我將談談我們的業務與展望。在磷酸鹽方面，我們去年在礦石降耗方面表現強勁，佛羅里達達到三年來最高水準，Miski Mayo 的採礦產量亦創下紀錄。我們在 2025 年的首要策略重點，是恢復營運穩定並使成本回歸常態。雖然產量回升所需時間比預期更長，但我們朝此目標已完成了大量工作。

In our US phosphate business, we invested time and money across our assets to set ourselves up for reliably strong production, and we are seeing positive results. The key measure of our success is P2O5 output because acid gives us the ability to flex grades and products to meet demand and P2O5 production improved during the year.

在美國磷酸鹽業務方面，我們在各項資產上投入時間與資金，以建立可持續且可靠的強勁產能，而我們已看到正面成果。衡量我們成功的關鍵指標是 P2O5 產出，因為酸讓我們能彈性調整品級與產品以滿足需求，而 P2O5 產量在年內有所改善。

Our phosphate fertilizer production also rose through the year, and we expect consistently good production in 2026. We produced 1.7 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, even with an extended turnaround at our Bartow facility as well as deliberate steps to adjust production amid soft US demand. We are off to a strong start this year, and we expect to produce at least 7 million tonnes of phosphate in 2026. In potash, we are back at full operating rates at Esterhazy since the tragic fatality in December, and our HydroFloat project is ramping up.

我們的磷肥產量也在年內逐步上升，且我們預期 2026 年將維持穩定良好的產量。第四季我們生產了 170 萬噸，即使 Bartow 廠進行了延長歲修，且在美國需求疲弱之際我們也採取了有意識的措施調整產量。今年我們開局強勁，並預期 2026 年磷酸鹽產量至少達到 700 萬噸。在鉀肥方面，自 12 月發生不幸的致命事故後，我們已在 Esterhazy 恢復滿載運轉，而 HydroFloat 專案也正在爬坡增產。

We expect to achieve record production at Esterhazy in 2026. International sales volume set a record last year, and we anticipate continuing strong demand in 2026. In fact, we expect to produce around 9 million tonnes of potash this year, a level similar to 2025 even after we complete the Carlsbad transaction.

我們預期 2026 年 Esterhazy 將達到創紀錄的產量。去年國際銷售量創下紀錄，我們預期 2026 年需求仍將維持強勁。事實上，我們預期今年鉀肥產量約為 900 萬噸，即使完成 Carlsbad 交易後，該水準仍與 2025 年相近。

On the cost front, we are maintaining disciplined cost management through all market conditions. In 2025, we faced significant market volatility. When solar prices spiked at the end of the year, which we expect will significantly compress margins in our phosphate and Mosaic Fertilizantes segments well into the first half of 2026, we moved quickly to protect margins and profitability. We have idled Araxa and Fospar in Brazil, our lowest margin operations until further notice.

在成本方面，我們在各種市場環境下都維持嚴謹的成本管理紀律。2025 年我們面臨顯著的市場波動。當年末硫磺價格飆升時——我們預期這將在 2026 年上半年相當長一段時間內，顯著壓縮我們磷酸鹽與 Mosaic Fertilizantes 分部的利潤率——我們迅速採取行動以保護利潤率與獲利能力。我們已將巴西利潤率最低的營運據點 Araxa 與 Fospar 暫時停產，直至另行通知。

Turning to managing our controllable costs and driving operating efficiency. We made excellent progress on this front last year. We executed our mine optimization plan, improved our fixed labor costs, consolidated suppliers where possible, and managed corporate costs well. Our business in Brazil was a standout, delivering cost improvements through increased mine production and the elimination of high-cost imported rock. In fact, rock output in Brazil reached near record levels in 2025.

接著談談管理我們可控的成本並提升營運效率。去年我們在這方面取得了極佳的進展。我們執行了礦山最佳化計畫、改善固定勞動成本、在可行之處整併供應商，並妥善控管公司成本。我們在巴西的業務表現尤為突出，透過提高礦山產量並淘汰高成本的進口礦石，實現了成本改善。事實上，巴西的礦石產量在2025年達到接近歷史紀錄的水準。

In phosphate, we began to reverse the cost pressures that arose from extensive maintenance activities in the first half of the year. Fourth quarter cash cost of conversion was $112 per tonne, which is an improvement of approximately $20 per tonne compared with a high water mark earlier in the year. This improvement is structural, not one-off.

在磷酸鹽業務方面，我們開始扭轉上半年因大量維修活動所帶來的成本壓力。第四季轉換現金成本為每噸112美元，較年內較高水位改善約每噸20美元。這項改善屬於結構性，而非一次性。

In potash, our cash cost of production averaged $75 per tonne in 2025 and would have been within our Analyst Day target range, if not for the extension of Colonsay, which carries higher costs. At Mosaic Fertilizantes, blended rock cost per tonne reached $97, the lowest level since 2021.

在鉀肥方面，我們2025年的生產現金成本平均為每噸75美元；若非Colonsay延長運轉（其成本較高），本可落在我們分析師日所設定的目標區間內。在Mosaic Fertilizantes，混合礦石每噸成本達到97美元，為自2021年以來最低水準。

We achieved our $150 million cost savings objective ahead of schedule in 2025. As we enter the new year, we are advancing a broad set of technology-enabled initiatives to drive the next wave of efficiencies from optimizing supply chains in North America and Brazil to improving how we manage contracts and vendors to enhancing productivity. These efforts have positioned us to deliver another $100 million in savings in 2026.

我們在2025年提前達成1.5億美元的成本節省目標。進入新的一年，我們正推動一系列以科技賦能的廣泛計畫，以帶動下一波效率提升，涵蓋從最佳化北美與巴西的供應鏈、改善合約與供應商管理方式，到提升生產力等。這些努力使我們有能力在2026年再實現1億美元的節省。

Our other strategic pillars are leveraging our market access and redefining our growth. And here, too, we have made important strides. In 2025, we expanded our Brazil distribution capacity with the completion of a 1 million-tonne blending facility in Palmeirante, in the fast-growing agriculture region in Northern Brazil. The facility positions us to better serve customers in the area and to meet rising demand as credit conditions normalize.

我們其他的策略支柱是善用市場通路並重新定義成長。在這方面，我們同樣取得了重要進展。2025年，我們完成位於巴西北部農業快速成長區域Palmeirante的一座100萬噸混配設施，擴充了巴西的配送產能。該設施使我們能更好地服務當地客戶，並在信貸條件正常化之際滿足上升的需求。

One of our most promising growth stories is Mosaic Biosciences. Our global market access, the strength of our brand, and our long-term customer relationships provide significant strategic advantages for us. We launched five new products in 2025 and expanded commercialization in the Americas, China, and India.

我們最具潛力的成長故事之一是Mosaic Biosciences。我們的全球市場通路、品牌實力以及長期客戶關係，為我們帶來顯著的策略優勢。我們在2025年推出五項新產品，並擴大在美洲、中國與印度的商業化布局。

Mosaic Biosciences is capitalizing on previous investments in R&D by expanding registrations of current products to our core markets and new geographies, now reaching 60-plus registrations and selling into 16 countries. The business consistently delivers stable gross margins in the 40s and future product launches should provide a pathway to higher margins over time.

Mosaic Biosciences正藉由擴大現有產品在核心市場與新地理區域的登記註冊，來發揮先前研發投資的效益；目前已累計超過60項註冊，並銷售至16個國家。該業務一貫維持在40%多的穩定毛利率，未來的新產品上市可望隨時間推進，提供邁向更高毛利率的路徑。

In 2025, Mosaic Biosciences doubled net sales to $68 million. Looking ahead to 2026, our expectation of continued adoption across our current portfolio, along with 8 to 10 anticipated new product launches, positions us to achieve another year of doubling net sales. Mosaic Biosciences is delivering on the promise we saw from the start. It has become a truly scalable growth platform.

2025年，Mosaic Biosciences的淨銷售額倍增至6,800萬美元。展望2026年，我們預期現有產品組合將持續被採用，加上預計推出8到10項新產品，使我們有望再度達成淨銷售額倍增的一年。Mosaic Biosciences正兌現我們從一開始所看到的承諾。它已成為真正具可擴展性的成長平台。

The final element of our strategy is reallocating capital in pursuit of stronger returns. We continue to reshape our portfolio and strengthen our financial foundation last year. On the capital reallocation front, the transactions announced in 2025, including Carlsbad, are expected to generate approximately $170 million in proceeds over time and also allow for a reduction of $60 million in asset retirement obligations. More importantly, we will avoid significant capital expenditures that these assets would have required.

我們策略的最後一個要素，是為追求更強勁的報酬而重新配置資本。去年我們持續重塑投資組合並強化財務基礎。在資本重新配置方面，2025年宣布的交易（包括Carlsbad）預計將在一段時間內帶來約1.7億美元的處分收入，並可使資產除役義務減少6,000萬美元。更重要的是，我們將避免這些資產原本所需的大量資本支出。

While the proceeds from the transactions announced last year are modest, this continues the process that began three years ago and has already generated significant value. As an example, our position in modern equity is currently valued at about $2.1 billion.

雖然去年宣布交易的處分收入規模不大，但這延續了三年前開始的流程，且已創造顯著價值。例如，我們在Modern Equity的持股目前估值約為21億美元。

Looking ahead to 2026, we expect progress on multiple fronts. We're pursuing strategic alternatives for selected Brazilian assets, including unlocking incremental value from coproducts, niobium, and other critical minerals. We also expect to generate value through monetization of some of our Florida land holdings.

展望2026年，我們預期在多個面向取得進展。我們正為部分巴西資產尋求策略性替代方案，包括釋放共產品、鈮以及其他關鍵礦物的增量價值。我們也預期透過部分佛羅里達土地持有的變現來創造價值。

A note on capital expenditures. We expect CapEx in 2026 to come in around $1.5 billion, higher than 2025, due to mine gyp stack and clay settling area expansions in Florida. At the same time, cash spending on asset retirement obligations and environmental reserves are expected to decline by roughly $50 million, partially offsetting the increase as much of our closure work, particularly at Plant City is complete.

關於資本支出補充說明。我們預期2026年的資本支出（CapEx）約為15億美元，高於2025年，主因為佛羅里達的礦山石膏堆置場與黏土沉降區擴建。同時，資產除役義務與環境準備金的現金支出預計將下降約5,000萬美元，部分抵銷上述增加，因為我們的多數關閉作業（尤其是Plant City）已完成。

Looking further ahead, we continue to expect capital expenditures to trend down, reaching approximately $1 billion by 2030, with ARO an environmental reserve cash spending also declining to about $200 million by 2030.

再往後看，我們仍預期資本支出將呈下降趨勢，到2030年約降至10億美元；同時，ARO與環境準備金的現金支出也將在2030年前降至約2億美元。

Now I'll turn the call over to Luciano. Luciano?

接下來我把電話會議交給Luciano。Luciano？

Thank you, Bruce. Good morning, everyone. 2025 was a challenging year for Mosaic from a cash flow perspective. Inventory builds in both finished products and raw materials weighted on cash flow for much of the year and intensified as demand weakened significantly in the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，Bruce。各位早安。從現金流角度來看，2025年對Mosaic而言是充滿挑戰的一年。成品與原料的庫存增加在全年大部分時間都拖累了現金流，並在第四季需求顯著轉弱時進一步加劇。

The impact was significant. Working capital reduced cash flow by $960 million for the year and contributed to an $829 million increase in net debt. The buildup in working capital changed our plans for the balance sheet.

影響相當顯著。全年營運資金使現金流減少9.6億美元，並促成淨負債增加8.29億美元。營運資金的累積改變了我們對資產負債表的規劃。

In November 2025, we successfully raised $900 million through 3-year and 5-year notes. While the original intent was to refinance a portion of the 2027 maturity, the fourth quarter demand downturn and the resulting increase in debt led us to reassess and to redirect the proceeds towards retiring short-term commercial paper. Our next maturity isn't until the end of 2027, and we continue to monitor markets for opportunity.

2025年11月，我們成功透過3年期與5年期票據籌資9億美元。原先的目的在於為2027年到期的部分債務再融資，但第四季需求下滑及由此導致的負債增加，使我們重新評估，並將資金用途轉向償還短期商業本票。我們下一個到期日要到2027年底，我們也將持續關注市場以把握機會。

Looking forward, how do we see '26 cash flows, debt, and shareholder returns? In the near term, cash flow remains constrained by lower EBITDA, a result of the sharp increase in sulfur prices since December. Phosphate stripping margins are under pressure. Every $10 increase in sulfur prices adds approximately $10 million of quarterly expense. Compared with the prior year first quarter, we thus expect a roughly $250 million headwind to Q1 '26 EBITDA. This margin pressure also led us to idle Araxa and Fospar in Brazil until further notice. And given the uncertainty surrounding our production plans in Brazil, we're not providing full year 2026 Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volume guidance.

展望未來，我們如何看待26年的現金流、負債與股東報酬？短期內，現金流仍受較低EBITDA所限制，原因是自12月以來硫磺價格大幅上升。磷酸鹽的剝採利差承受壓力。硫磺價格每上升10美元，約會增加1,000萬美元的單季費用。相較於前一年第一季，我們因此預期26年第一季EBITDA將面臨約2.5億美元的不利因素。這種利差壓力也使我們決定將巴西的Araxa與Fospar停產，直至另行通知。此外，鑑於巴西生產計畫存在不確定性，我們不提供2026年全年Mosaic Fertilizantes的銷售量指引。

So we expect cash flow to improve progressively as the year unfolds. We expect our own phosphate production to improve, supporting better fixed cost absorption and higher profitability on incremental volumes. Phosphate prices are rebounding from recent loans in Brazil and working capital release is expected to drive a significant cash flow uplift this year.

因此，我們預期現金流將隨著年度推進而逐步改善。我們預期自有磷酸鹽產量將提升，支撐更佳的固定成本吸收，並在增量銷量上帶來更高的獲利能力。磷酸鹽價格正從巴西近期低點回升，且預期營運資金釋放將在今年帶動顯著的現金流提升。

On working capital, we exited 2025 with about 240,000 tonnes of excess inventory in phosphates versus the prior year. At current inventory values, this represents roughly $140 million of potential working capital release over the next few quarters from demand recovery alone. While the typical seasonal inventory build in Mosaic Fertilizantes will offset part of this capital release in the first quarter, it will set up a more pronounced working capital benefit in the second and third quarters.

關於營運資金，我們在 2025 年底的磷酸鹽庫存較前一年多出約 24 萬公噸的超額庫存。以目前的庫存價值計算，僅憑需求復甦，未來幾個季度就可能釋放約 1.4 億美元的營運資金。雖然 Mosaic Fertilizantes 典型的季節性備庫會在第一季抵銷部分資金釋放，但這將為第二季與第三季帶來更明顯的營運資金效益。

But beyond demand recovery, higher phosphate production provides another source of working capital release as we currently hold excess phosphate rock and stockpiles. In addition, movements in sulfur and ammonia could provide some relief. And taken together, we believe that $300 million to $500 million working capital release is highly possible, supporting meaningfully higher cash flow generation in 2026. EBITDA to cash flow from operations conversion rate reached the low point in the mid-30s range in 2025 and versus a more normalized level of 70%. As working capital unwinds, we expect a meaningful improvement in this conversion rate.

但除了需求復甦之外，更高的磷酸鹽產量也提供另一個營運資金釋放來源，因為我們目前持有過量的磷礦石與堆存庫存。此外，硫磺與氨的價格變動也可能帶來一些緩解。綜合而言，我們認為釋放 3 億至 5 億美元的營運資金是高度可能的，將支撐 2026 年顯著更高的現金流創造。2025 年 EBITDA 轉換為營運現金流的轉換率降至約 30% 多的低點，相較於較為正常化的 70% 水準。隨著營運資金回轉，我們預期此轉換率將有顯著改善。

Now how should we think about capital allocation in 2026? We will continue to invest in our business. Capital expenditures are expected to be higher in 2026 than in 2025, driven primarily by required investments in new gyp stacks at multiple sites. The positive offset though is that asset retirement obligations, environmental reserve spending is expected to trend down.

那麼，我們應該如何看待 2026 年的資本配置？我們將持續投資於本業。預期 2026 年資本支出將高於 2025 年，主要由多個據點新建石膏堆置場（gyp stacks）的必要投資所帶動。不過正向的抵銷因素是，資產除役義務（ARO）與環境準備金支出預期將呈下降趨勢。

Taken together, as Bruce mentioned, total cash outlays for CapEx, ARO, and environmental reserves are expected to be modestly higher than the prior year. This is a way of thinking that we suggest you to adopt going forward as ARO and environmental reserve spending will trend down for the next few years. We continue to see opportunities to reduce CapEx towards $1 billion by the end of the decade with ARO and environmental reserves steadily edging down to approximately $200 million.

綜合來看，如 Bruce 所提，資本支出、ARO 與環境準備金的總現金支出預期將較前一年小幅增加。我們建議各位未來採用這種思考方式，因為 ARO 與環境準備金支出在未來幾年將持續下降。我們仍看到機會在本十年末將資本支出降至約 10 億美元，同時 ARO 與環境準備金也將穩步下滑至約 2 億美元。

Overall, we expect to generate free cash flow after CapEx and other cash spend above the minimum dividend in 2026. This will allow us to prioritize debt reduction and subsequently pave the way to resume extraordinary returns to shareholders. I'll now stop here and turn the call back to the operator for questions and answers.

整體而言，我們預期 2026 年在扣除資本支出與最低股利以上的其他現金支出後，仍可產生自由現金流。這將使我們能優先降低負債，並進一步為恢復對股東的額外回饋鋪路。我先講到這裡，接下來把電話交回主持人進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（主持人指示）

Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

Duffy Fischer，高盛。

First question is just on phosphate or DAP. Can you triangulate what you're thinking? I mean, obviously, Q4, you're telling us the pricing was too high and farmers kind of backed at that. Pricing has come down now, but so have your margins pretty significantly in a relatively tight market you'd argue you should be able to get margin expansion. So do you think you'll be able to price for that higher sulfur as we go through this planting season?

第一個問題是關於磷酸鹽或 DAP。你能否幫我們交叉驗證一下你們的想法？我的意思是，很明顯第四季你們告訴我們價格太高，農民有點因此縮手。現在價格已經下來了，但在你們認為相對緊俏的市場中，你們的利潤率也相當明顯地下滑；照理說你們應該能夠擴大利潤率。所以在接下來這個播種季，你們認為能把較高的硫磺成本反映到價格上嗎？

And if you do, do you think farmers will actually buy or will they forgo DAP applications this year? Or do you think they just pushed it to the spring?

如果可以，你們認為農民實際上會買嗎？還是他們今年會乾脆不施用 DAP？或者你們認為他們只是把需求延後到春季？

Duffy, thanks for the question. So on DAP, definitely [done it], recognize that affordability for the farmer is still challenged, although better and I see we see that improving in 2026 versus 2025, just given the dynamics on the ag commodity side. But to your point about pass-through on sulfur price, I don't know that we'll be able to pass through as much as maybe historically in the tight market, given the affordability issues. But we do see, at least for us, anything above a stripping margin above 300, we still see very constructive being in the middle of the cost curve. And that's kind of how we're looking at that.

Duffy，謝謝你的問題。就 DAP 而言，確實（如你所說），我們也認知到農民的可負擔性仍然面臨壓力，雖然情況有所改善；而且考量農產品商品端的動態，我們確實看到 2026 年相較 2025 年會進一步改善。但就你提到的硫磺價格轉嫁，我不確定在目前可負擔性問題的限制下，即使市場緊俏，我們是否能像過去那樣大幅轉嫁。不過我們也看到，至少對我們而言，只要剝離毛利（stripping margin）高於 300，我們仍認為相當具建設性，因為我們位於成本曲線的中段。這大致就是我們的看法。

So it will be interesting to watch what happens to sulfur coming out of Q1. We do see things looking to improve. I don't think that sulfur will revert back to some 3-year-old, 2-year-old number with a one handle or two handle on it. But we do see sulfur getting better, which should help on stripping margins. And then in addition to how we're thinking about that is that the more we push on getting to our full capacity on phosphate fertilizer production, it's just going to continue to expand with that fixed cost absorption.

因此，觀察第一季結束後硫磺走勢會很有意思。我們確實看到情況有望改善。我不認為硫磺會回到兩三年前那種以「1 字頭」或「2 字頭」開頭的價格水準。但我們確實看到硫磺在好轉，這應該有助於剝離毛利。此外，我們的另一個思考是：我們越是推動磷酸鹽肥料產量回到滿載，就越能透過固定成本吸收來持續擴大利潤。

Our margin to insulate us even more from some of the uncontrollables on raw material side. So farmer affordability, I think, is going to cover it. How much we can pass through. There probably is a limit. But we've got still a lot of room to go before we feel a lot of pressure on margin -- stripping margin standpoint for profitability around phosphate.

讓我們的利潤率更能抵禦原料端一些不可控因素。所以我認為農民可負擔性會是關鍵。我們能轉嫁多少。可能確實有其上限。但就磷酸鹽獲利的剝離毛利角度而言，在我們感受到利潤率明顯壓力之前，仍然還有很大的緩衝空間。

I don't know, Jenny, any comments to add?

我不知道，Jenny，你有沒有要補充的？

Yes. I probably just want to add one point, Bruce. DAP price in North America, especially in the US market, has been pretty stable and that is basically impacted by the firm affordability issues very acute in the US market.

有。我可能只想補充一點，Bruce。北美的 DAP 價格，尤其是美國市場，一直相當穩定，而這基本上是受到美國市場農民可負擔性問題非常嚴峻的影響。

If you look at the international market, we see very different dynamics and you have some major DAP consuming countries between China and India. In these two countries, the government basically subsidize their farmers. And therefore, we are seeing the price increases over the last five weeks in the international market. In fact, today, international market price, the net for DAP netback is actually at a higher premium than (inaudible) price. So I understand the concerns on affordability, this is probably more severe in the US market than the rest of the world.

如果你看國際市場，我們看到非常不同的動態，且在中國與印度之間有一些主要的 DAP 消費國。在這兩個國家，政府基本上會補貼農民。因此，我們看到過去五週國際市場價格上漲。事實上，今天國際市場的 DAP 淨回收價（netback）實際上比（聽不清）價格有更高的溢價。所以我理解對可負擔性的擔憂，但這在美國市場可能比世界其他地區更為嚴重。

Yes. I think that's a great point, Jenny, for everyone is the international market is a little bit disconnected from an affordability and constructiveness standpoint than maybe just the US, which is great given our distribution access. We will pivot as necessary to take advantage of that.

是的。我認為這是個很好的觀點，Jenny，提供給大家：國際市場在可負擔性與景氣建設性（constructiveness）的角度上，與美國市場可能有些脫鉤；這點很好，因為我們具備通路覆蓋。我們會視需要調整，以把握其中的機會。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Search.

Chris Parkinson，Wolfe Search。

Bruce, when we take a step back and we just look at 2026 versus your Capital Markets Day expectations in terms of turnarounds. Can you just kind of give us a walk-through of the phosphate production or asset portfolio, where we were, where we kind of were trending towards the end of the fourth quarter and where you expect to be in '26? You're back down to $112 in terms of conversion costs. How should we think about that as it relates to your greater than 7 million-tonne production guidance for '26?

Bruce，當我們退一步看，對照 2026 年與你們在資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）對於歲修/檢修（turnarounds）的預期。你能否帶我們梳理一下磷酸鹽產量或資產組合的情況：我們原本在哪裡、第四季末大致朝哪個方向發展，以及你預期 2026 年會在哪裡？你們的轉換成本（conversion costs）又回到 112 美元。就你們 2026 年超過 700 萬噸的產量指引而言，我們應該如何理解這點？

Yes, Chris, thanks for the question. I think our guide is based on -- and we talked about this the last quarter kind of trailing demonstrated. But by no means does that mean that is where the status is going forward. So I can see where there's some disconnect and confusion and Chris, and I'm happy to try to give you some color.

是的，Chris，謝謝你的問題。我認為我們的指引是基於——我們上季也談到——近期的實際展現（trailing demonstrated）。但這絕不代表未來的狀態就會停留在那裡。所以我理解這裡可能有一些落差與困惑，Chris；我也很樂意提供一些補充說明。

So in the fourth quarter -- well, first, let me back up, to get to kind of the 8 million-tonne rate, you need an operating factor of 80 -- low 80s, 81% of our overall fertilizer assets in North America. We were there in Bartow for much of 2025. We got there in Louisiana in the fourth quarter. We're in the mid-70s at Riverview in the fourth quarter. New Wales was a little behind with some issues that they were facing, still working through some operating consistency. As we've moved into -- so good quarter, saw improvements, particularly on P2O5 production from quarter 3 to quarter 4.

所以在第四季——嗯，首先讓我先往回說一下，要達到大約800萬公噸的產能速率，你需要北美整體肥料資產的運轉率達到80%——80%出頭，大約81%。我們在2025年大部分時間於Bartow都達到了這個水準。我們在第四季於路易斯安那也達到了。我們在第四季於Riverview則是在70%中段。New Wales因為面臨一些問題而稍微落後，仍在努力改善運轉一致性。隨著我們進入——所以這是一個不錯的季度，從第三季到第四季我們看到改善，特別是在P2O5產量方面。

And we're continuing to see that going into quarter 1. Bartow continues to run at its plus 80% operating factor. Louisiana is running also at that 80% threshold. Riverview is also approaching that 80%. So when you look at those three facilities in aggregate, kind of already at kind of that 80% operating factor, and we're seeing more and more days strung together in all facilities where they're at or above kind of that ultimate aspiration that we want to get back to.

而且我們在第一季也持續看到這樣的趨勢。Bartow持續以80%以上的運轉率運行。路易斯安那也在80%的門檻上運行。Riverview也正在接近80%。所以當你把這三個廠合併來看，基本上已經在大約80%的運轉率水準，我們也看到各廠越來越多天數能連續維持在或高於我們希望回到的最終目標水準。

New Wales is in a turnaround as we speak. We expect as they come out of turnaround into quarter 2 that they will be approaching that 80%. And again, new wells is our biggest facility at 3 million tonnes of granular capacity. So we expect in the first half of the year to get through some of these turnarounds, Bartow has no more turnarounds for the year. New Wales will get through this major turnaround.

New Wales目前正在進行大修（turnaround）。我們預期他們在大修結束、進入第二季後，將會接近80%。而且再次強調，New Wales是我們最大的廠，顆粒產能為300萬公噸。因此我們預期在上半年完成一些大修；Bartow今年不再有大修。New Wales將完成這次重大大修。

Riverview has a turnaround in second quarter of this year. We expect even coming out of that turnaround to be better than they have been. So we're feeling very optimistic about production in the back half of the year. Hence, we said 7 plus, 7 is kind of where we've been over the last 2 quarters, but we see some upside, Chris, to your point. Luciano has got something to say.

Riverview在今年第二季會有一次大修。我們預期即便在大修後，他們的表現也會比過去更好。所以我們對下半年產量感到非常樂觀。因此我們說7以上——過去兩季大約在7左右，但我們看到一些上行空間，Chris，正如你所說。Luciano有話要說。

Yes. May I comment on the cost side. The $112 per tonne in phosphates is where it should be, given the current production volumes. The $131 of Q3 was actually very abnormal because of lots of repairs done outside of turnarounds. And the rule of thumb is every 100,000 tonnes per quarter should represent kind of a $7 to $8 decline through cost absorption on this $112.

是的。我可以就成本面補充一下。磷酸鹽每噸112美元在目前的產量水準下是合理的。第三季的131美元其實非常不正常，因為有很多維修是在非大修期間進行。經驗法則是：每季每增加10萬公噸，透過成本吸收，這個112美元大約會下降7到8美元。

So therefore, if the path from 1.7 to 2.0 would imply kind of between $20 and $25 per tonne decline over current levels of phosphate conversion costs.

因此，若從1.7走到2.0，意味著磷酸鹽轉換成本相較目前水準，每噸大約會下降20到25美元。

Yes. So Chris, we remain confident in our ultimate objective. We talked about at Analyst Day both on volume and cost to Luciano's point, getting below $100 conversion cost. And then we're continuing to focus on some of the last things, talent and training, discipline around our operations management system, better asset, predictive maintenance, and analytics, which continued to take us kind of to that next frontier.

是的。所以Chris，我們對最終目標仍然有信心。我們在分析師日談到，無論是產量或成本——呼應Luciano的觀點——要把轉換成本降到每噸100美元以下。同時我們也持續聚焦在一些最後的關鍵事項：人才與訓練、在營運管理系統上的紀律、更好的資產預測性維護，以及分析能力，這些都會持續帶我們邁向下一個前沿。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

I can see where your capital expenditures comes through your cash flow statement. Where does your ARO and environmental reserves cash spend come through? Is that part of operations? Or is that a capital cost, the $400 million in cash spend, you talk about $408 million?

我看得到你們的資本支出如何反映在現金流量表上。那你們ARO與環境準備金的現金支出是在哪裡反映？那是營運活動的一部分嗎？還是屬於資本成本？你們提到的4億美元現金支出，是408百萬美元那個？

Thanks, Jeff. I'm just going to put this over right to Luciano, he's got that.

謝謝，Jeff。我把這題直接交給Luciano，他比較清楚。

Jeff, it actually is spread around a few lines. There's a little bit that comes through -- it all comes through the operational part of cash flows, nothing on the capital expenditures, but it's in between a few lines. You have accrued liabilities. For example, the current portion of ARO, when you spend on that, you decline accrued liabilities. You have a little bit on the on the net income line itself, part of -- that offsets the accretion expense.

Jeff，實際上它分散在幾個項目裡。有一小部分會反映在——它全部都在營運現金流的部分，資本支出那邊沒有，但會落在幾個不同的行項之間。例如應計負債（accrued liabilities）。例如ARO的流動部分，當你對那部分支出時，應計負債就會下降。另外在淨利那一行本身也會有一點影響，部分——用來抵銷折現增加費用（accretion expense）。

So it's a little complicated, but it's in the operational part of the cash flow statement.

所以這有點複雜，但它是在現金流量表的營運活動部分。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews，摩根士丹利。

Just to follow up on the CapEx, maybe the inventory a little bit. I think the street had CapEx coming down about $300 million from '25 to '26. So I know you called out why it's going up. Because you talked about sort of what changed and what triggered the need to do this in '26 and your confidence that this will not lead into '27 and beyond?

我想就資本支出再追問一下，可能也稍微談談存貨。我認為市場原本預期CapEx會從2025年到2026年下降大約3億美元。所以我知道你們提到為什麼它會上升。因為你們談到有哪些改變、以及是什麼觸發你們在2026年需要做這些，還有你們為何有信心這不會延伸到2027年及之後？

And then secondarily, you called out on the inventory line that you have excess phosphate rock inventory. So I'd just be curious if you could help us understand, is that because you thought you were going to produce more last year, so you bought excess rock where you thought rock prices were going to go up, so you bought ahead of that increase? Just trying to understand how you're going to work that number down.

另外，你們在存貨那一行提到有過多的磷礦石存貨。所以我想了解，這是因為你們原本以為去年會生產更多，所以買了過多的礦石？還是因為你們認為礦石價格會上漲，所以在漲價前先行採購？只是想了解你們打算如何把那個數字降下來。

Vincent, thanks for the question. On CapEx, as Luciano and I talked about, we had an interesting confluence this year of a number of waste disposal projects in gyp stacks and clay settling areas and tailings dam in Brazil as well that have all kind of hit from a timing standpoint at the same time. That is unusual. But I would tell you that the 1.5 that we've said is -- I would say, is really the ceiling. We probably see that as a worst case outcome and actually have some upside to that.

Vincent，謝謝你的問題。關於CapEx，正如Luciano和我提到的，今年出現了一個有趣的同時發生情況：多個廢棄物處置專案——包括石膏堆場（gyp stacks）、黏土沉降區（clay settling areas），以及巴西的尾礦壩——在時點上幾乎同時到來。這是不尋常的。但我會告訴你，我們所說的15億——我會說——基本上是上限。我們可能把它視為最壞情境的結果，實際上還有一些向上改善的空間。

But just to give you an example, you don't know exactly how much gyp stack for example, is going to cost until you do some of the ground survey work. And then you find that out and have to tweak the estimates. So those are type of things that happened. It's just a clarification of what those waste costs are and then the timing of those giving the exhaustion of existing capacity. So we have a gypsum stack at New Wales, a gypsum stack at Bartow, the gypsum stack in Louisiana, all happening in 2026.

舉例來說，你不會在完成一些地質測量工作之前，就確切知道例如石膏堆場到底要花多少錢。等你知道之後，就必須調整估算。所以這類事情就發生了。這只是釐清那些廢棄物成本的內容，以及在既有容量耗盡的情況下，這些成本的時點安排。因此我們在New Wales有一座石膏堆場、在Bartow有一座石膏堆場、在路易斯安那也有石膏堆場，全部都會在2026年發生。

We have a tailings dam at Tapira and then we have two clay settling areas, one winding down and another one being built at Four Corners. The good news is, once you get beyond these, and that's why we have confidence that this number will come down in time. You don't build another gyp stack for another 4, 6, 8, even 16 years depending on the facility. And then clay settling areas last anywhere from two to five years. So these are lumpy when they do come through.

我們在Tapira有一座尾礦壩，另外在Four Corners有兩個黏土沉降區，一個正在逐步停用，另一個正在建造。好消息是，一旦度過這些專案——這也是我們有信心這個數字會隨時間下降的原因。你不會在接下來4年、6年、8年，甚至依據不同廠區可能要到16年後才會再建下一座石膏堆場。而黏土沉降區的使用年限通常是2到5年。所以這些支出在發生時會呈現不均勻、跳躍式的特性。

It's unfortunate that they've all lined up together. It's not by choice, it's by necessity. And then once we're through this, we're very confident that the tail down to $1 billion towards the end of the decade is definitely possible. On the rock side, just a little bit, we don't buy rock on the external market, like maybe other nonintegrated producers do. Our production of rock, I'm not going to say it's decoupled from the consumption, but there are largely two processes.

很遺憾它們全都同時發生了。這不是出於選擇，而是出於必要。而且一旦我們度過這段期間，我們非常有信心，在本十年末尾將尾端降至約10億美元絕對是可行的。在磷礦石（rock）這一端，稍微補充一下，我們不會像其他可能未垂直整合的生產商那樣在外部市場購買磷礦石。我們的磷礦石產量，我不會說它與消耗量完全脫鉤，但大致上有兩個流程。

And then you manage rock production rock inventory because we have millions of tonnes of available storage for rock inventory to kind of manage through the near term, the next two to three years. But given that production on the fertilizer side, with all the work that went into asset reliability in the first half and into the second half of the year, actually, we didn't consume as much. We built some of that rock inventory. But as I just talked about with two questions ago, we're seeing very good run rates. We'll start to more balance that out and actually start to reduce that rock inventory as we pull through more of that into finished goods.

接著你會管理磷礦石產量與磷礦石庫存，因為我們有數百萬噸的可用儲存空間可用於磷礦石庫存，來因應短期、也就是未來兩到三年的需求管理。但考量到肥料端的產量，隨著上半年以及下半年在資產可靠性方面投入的所有工作，實際上我們的消耗沒有那麼多。因此我們建立了一部分磷礦石庫存。但正如我在前兩個問題提到的，我們看到非常好的運轉率。我們會開始讓它更趨於平衡，並在我們把更多磷礦石拉動到成品的過程中，實際開始降低磷礦石庫存。

Luciano, you want to add something?

Luciano，你要補充一下嗎？

There's a slide on the presentation that shows a $346 million increase in raw materials. That includes both sulfur ammonia and also the rock inventories work in process. And it's about half and half the increase. So the potential is with increased production rates to release that roughly $170 million, $180 million of excess rock inventory.

簡報裡有一張投影片顯示原材料增加了3.46億美元。這包含硫磺、氨，以及磷礦石庫存與在製品。增幅大約各占一半。因此，隨著產量提升，釋放約1.7億到1.8億美元的超額磷礦石庫存是有潛力的。

And the other thing that inventory allows us to do on the rock side, particularly in Florida, is as we move into new areas, which we're going through a major area relocation right now at South Fort Meade. It gives us even some buffer to make sure that we don't run out of rock or the ability to blend our rock for consistency to our asset facilities. So it serves that purpose as well, Vincent.

另外，庫存讓我們在磷礦石端能做的另一件事，特別是在佛羅里達，是當我們移往新區域時——我們目前正在南Fort Meade進行一項重大的區域搬遷——它也提供一些緩衝，確保我們不會缺磷礦石，或確保我們有能力為了資產設施的一致性而進行磷礦石混配。所以它也有這個用途，Vincent。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

UBS 的 Lucas Beaumont。

Just going to [settle and downsize], I just wanted to kind of ask about the volume outlook there. I mean you guys talked about the continued kind of challenges on the credit issues in Brazil. and that your first quarter volumes are going to be down year on year. So if we assume that means maybe sort of 1.7 million tonnes or so. And then your phosphate production is curtailed on was sort of the first half with the cost challenges there.

我想先[settle and downsize]一下，我主要想問那邊的出貨量展望。你們提到巴西信貸問題仍持續帶來一些挑戰，而且你們第一季的出貨量會年減。所以如果我們假設這代表大概是170萬噸左右。然後你們的磷酸鹽產量在上半年因為成本方面的挑戰而有所抑制。

I mean that probably gets us to something flattish around 9 million tonnes for the year again. So I mean, last year, coming into the year, you guys were sort of looking at 10 million to 10.8 million tonnes in volumes. You've added the capacity there, and you clearly have room to grow. So I guess, could you just kind of help us front how should we think about the volume outlook there for 2026? And then how we should sort of see your leverage to the upside to grow going forward?

那這可能讓我們今年全年又回到大概900萬噸左右、相對持平。所以我的意思是，去年在年初時，你們原本看的是1,000萬到1,080萬噸的出貨量。你們也增加了產能，而且顯然還有成長空間。所以我想請你們協助我們理解：對於2026年的出貨量展望應該怎麼看？以及往後你們向上成長的槓桿（leverage）應該如何理解？

Yes. Lucas, appreciate the question. I'm going to ask Jenny to talk a little bit about the market side of Brazil. But we are still very much a believer in being in Brazil. As we talked about before, we've been there for well over two decades and know how to navigate in that environment.

是的。Lucas，謝謝你的問題。我會請 Jenny 先談一下巴西市場端的情況。但我們仍然非常相信在巴西布局是正確的。如同我們之前提到的，我們在那裡已經超過二十年，也知道如何在那樣的環境中運作。

The credit issues that are being faced in Brazil have caused headwinds to the type of market capture that we were hoping for when we put those 10.8 million-tonnes numbers out there did not take risk in what you see maybe with some of our competitors have experienced. We have not had as much problems there. So we've taken a more conservative approach, but we do have as you've said, that kind of buffer to grow as the market rebounds and more stabilizes, not only in our existing facilities, but to your point, our new Palmeirante facility as well.

巴西目前面臨的信貸問題，對我們原本在提出1,080萬噸目標時所期待的市場滲透造成了逆風；我們並沒有承擔你可能在一些競爭對手身上看到的那種風險。我們在那邊遇到的問題沒有那麼多。因此我們採取了較保守的做法，但如你所說，隨著市場反彈並趨於穩定，我們確實有那種緩衝可以成長；不僅在既有設施，依你所提，我們新的 Palmeirante 設施也是如此。

So Jenny, maybe you want to talk about how the market looks in '26 and then even beyond?

所以 Jenny，也許你可以談談2026年的市場狀況，甚至更長期的展望？

Sure. Thanks. The market has been, as everyone knows, challenged by the high interest rate and the credit issues. We have really seen some major shift in the industry, both at the retailer side and also at the farmer side. The number of the filing of Chapter 11, the US equivalent of Chapter 11, cases have increased over the last two years, the positive part of the challenges are the consolidation started to happen as well, both at the retailer side and also at the grower side.

好的。謝謝。如大家所知，市場一直受到高利率與信貸問題的挑戰。我們確實看到產業出現一些重大轉變，零售端與農戶端都是如此。過去兩年，申請類似美國 Chapter 11（破產重整）的案件數量增加；而挑戰中的正面因素是，整併也開始發生，零售端與種植端皆然。

For 2026, we foresee this is going to be a challenging year as we go through this process. Therefore, if you think about the overall fertilizer shipment in the country, we may see some uncertainties, which: a, related to the farm economics and affordability; b, probably also related to the supply availability, especially on phosphate with the restriction of the Chinese export.

對於2026年，我們預期在經歷這個過程時仍會是充滿挑戰的一年。因此，如果你看全國整體的肥料出貨量，我們可能會看到一些不確定性：a，與農業經濟與可負擔性相關；b，也可能與供給可得性相關，特別是磷酸鹽，因為中國出口受限。

So overall market is likely going to be flat and our own distribution volume, we will make a prudent decision on how much we want to sell, which customers we want to sell. We are not going to take credit risk or we're not going to compete in the market where the business quality is not really good.

所以整體市場很可能持平；至於我們自身的通路出貨量，我們會審慎決定要賣多少、以及賣給哪些客戶。我們不會承擔信用風險，也不會在商業品質不佳的市場中競爭。

Lastly, I would say, last year was a significant application of low-quality phosphate and key products out of China. And we have started to see the official report on the yield impact. And if there's any further enter application of fertilizer in the current crop year, the ongoing safrinha corn or the coming summer season, the Brazilian farmers will have a very clear decision to make on what application rate they need to manage.

最後我想說，去年大量施用了來自中國的低品質磷酸鹽與關鍵產品。我們已開始看到關於產量影響的官方報告。如果在本作物年度——不論是正在進行的 safrinha（二季作）玉米，或即將到來的夏季作——還有任何進一步的施肥，巴西農民將會非常清楚必須就所需施用量做出決策，以便管理。

So in midterm, we are very optimistic to this market. Brazil is growing expanding and yield is very important for the farmers. But before the market turns time, we need to manage through this process, especially in this year.

因此在中期，我們對這個市場非常樂觀。巴西正在成長與擴張，而對農民而言，單位產量（yield）非常重要。但在市場真正轉向之前，我們需要度過並管理這個過程，尤其是在今年。

So Lucas, I'm going to ask Luciano to talk a little bit on the cost side and the resiliency of kind of for Fertilizantes from an interesting perspective. But no doubt, the raw material prices have provided some headwinds in that business, and we've made some moves. We're going to watch that closely before we decide on what to do next for maximizing shareholder value. And a lot of that depends on what happens with sulfur price and what happens with fertilizer price. And probably, hence, why we didn't guide in this regard is there's a lot to unfold in the next, say, month to three months for us to watch to get more comfortable on how things are going to come out.

所以 Lucas，我會請 Luciano 從成本端談一談，並從一個有趣的角度談談 Fertilizantes 的韌性。但毫無疑問，原材料價格確實對那項業務帶來一些逆風，而我們也已採取了一些行動。在我們決定下一步要做什麼、以最大化股東價值之前，我們會密切觀察。而其中很大一部分取決於硫磺價格的走勢，以及肥料價格的走勢。也可能因此我們在這方面沒有給出指引，因為接下來大約一到三個月仍有很多事情會發展，我們需要觀察，才能更有把握事情最終會如何落地。

But regardless of that, I think it's worth Luciano talking about kind of the financial performance of that business.

但不論如何，我認為讓Luciano談談該業務的財務表現是值得的。

Yes, there has been some reactions, notes with some disappointment about the performance which we present in the fourth quarter. But I would like to offer a different perspective. So because of high sulfur prices, we actually curtail production. We removed 30% of our SSP production in Brazil. We also put our major site in turnaround, which was we anticipated a turnaround we're not expecting. So it became stopped for.

是的，對於我們在第四季呈現的表現，確實有一些反應與評論，帶著些許失望。但我想提供一個不同的觀點。由於高硫磺價格，我們實際上縮減了產量。我們在巴西削減了30%的SSP產量。我們也讓我們的主要廠區進行歲修，而這次歲修是我們原先預期之外的。因此它就停產了。

So we produced significantly less. Our distribution margins because of the credit issues, they narrowed quite significantly. Sales dropped precipitously at the end of the quarter. And with all of that still, the business generated almost $50 million in EBITDA.

因此我們的產量顯著降低。由於信用問題，我們的通路/分銷利潤率大幅收窄。季度末的銷售量急劇下滑。即便如此，該業務仍創造了接近5,000萬美元的EBITDA。

And so that would be, I would say, a phenomenal performance for the set of circumstances that we faced and that we actually decided to impose to the business in the fourth quarter. So the platform is there. And as soon as the market conditions improve, you're going to see results rebounding pretty quickly.

所以我會說，在我們面臨、且在第四季實際上決定施加於該業務的這一系列情況下，這是非常出色的表現。因此平台仍在。一旦市場條件改善，你會看到結果很快反彈。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

Andrew Wong，RBC Capital Markets。

I just had a couple of questions on the US. First, on phosphate demand. It's been down pretty significantly for the past four years, but yields -- the crop yields have still been pretty strong. So what should we take away from that dynamic? Are at all just extremely, extremely depleted? Have farmers just been really efficient with applications?

我有幾個關於美國的問題。首先，關於磷酸鹽需求。過去四年它下滑得相當明顯，但作物單產——作物產量仍然相當強勁。那我們應該如何解讀這種動態？土壤是否已經非常、非常耗竭？還是農民在施用上變得非常有效率？

And then secondly, on the US countervailing duties, I think that's up for review this year. Can you just go over that process? And how does the current high-priced phosphate market affect that review?

第二，關於美國的反補貼稅，我想今年會進入審查。你能否說明一下該流程？以及目前高價的磷酸鹽市場會如何影響這次審查？

Thanks, Andrew, for your question. Let me start with your latter one and then turn it over to Jenny to talk about the lower phosphate in North America and the yield impacts of response to answer the first part of your question. On the countervailing duties, there really is no correlation to that on the process itself. But this process this year enters into its sunset review, which will kick off in April. We're evaluating our needs to participate in that process as we speak.

謝謝你的提問，Andrew。我先從你後面的問題開始，接著再請Jenny談北美磷酸鹽走低以及單產影響，以回應你問題的第一部分。關於反補貼稅，這個流程本身其實與市場價格高低沒有關聯。但今年這個流程會進入日落複審（sunset review），將在四月啟動。我們正在評估是否需要參與該流程。

So a lot more to come there. And just to remind, as that process unfolds, duties do stay in place until an ultimate decision is made on the countervailing duties from the sunset review. I'll turn that over to Jenny now to talk about yields in North America.

後續還會有更多資訊。也提醒一下，隨著流程推進，在日落複審對反補貼稅作出最終決定之前，關稅會維持有效。我現在把時間交給Jenny，談談北美的單產。

Sure, Andrew. I just want to remind ourselves on the shipment of phosphate in North America, basically changes is really in the US market. That was down to below 9 million tonnes in 2022, recovered in '23 to 10 million tonnes, '24, 10 million tonnes. And then we see a major drop last year, 8.5 million tonnes.

好的，Andrew。我想先提醒一下，北美磷酸鹽出貨量的變化，基本上主要發生在美國市場。2022年降到900萬噸以下，2023年回升到1,000萬噸，2024年也是1,000萬噸。然後我們看到去年大幅下滑到850萬噸。

So whether we should see yield impact, it is going to come in from the coming season -- the current season. So last year, the drop of this 14%, 15% of shipment of phosphate in the North American market, majority of them happened in four applications, meaning that is the tonnes go to the field in the spring for the spring crop. So the yield impact likely going to -- if there are major impact, it is likely going to be the current crop, the crop going to be going into the field. I would also see say the Precision Ag has made a lot of farmers make their decisions on cutting rate in the same time looking for products that they are able to improve the use efficiency where that is the biologicals coming in play. Biologicals like our PowerCoat and BioPath, they are not able to increase the supply of phosphorus.

至於是否會看到單產影響，會反映在接下來的季節——也就是目前這一季。去年北美市場磷酸鹽出貨量下滑14%、15%，其中大多發生在四種施用情境上，意思是這些噸數是在春季施到田裡、用於春季作物。因此單產影響很可能——如果有重大影響——會出現在目前這一季、即將下田的作物上。我也會說，精準農業（Precision Ag）讓許多農民在決定降低施用率的同時，也在尋找能提升使用效率的產品，這就是生物製劑開始發揮作用的地方。像我們的PowerCoat和BioPath這類生物製劑，並不能增加磷的供應量。

But in the time in one year or two, when the rate is not going to be applied as high as normally they do, the efficiency effect will come into play. So in short, whether we will see a yield impact in North market in the US, like we say we see in Brazil, it is going to be this crop, we will watch.

但在一到兩年的時間裡，當施用率不像以往那麼高時，效率提升的效果就會顯現。所以簡而言之，美國北美市場是否會像我們在巴西看到的那樣出現單產影響，將會是這一季作物，我們會持續觀察。

[Evan McCall], BMO Capital Markets.

[Evan McCall]，BMO Capital Markets。

(technical difficulty)

(技術問題)

We didn't pickup your question, it was pretty garbled. I don't know if it's your connection or where you are. If you want to, I don't know, drop and try to get back in.

我們沒有聽清楚你的問題，聲音相當含糊。我不確定是你的連線問題還是你所在的位置。如果可以的話，我不知道，你可以先退出再嘗試重新加入。

Yes. Sorry about that. So just wondering what change with the 2 million per tonne -- sorry, 2 million per quarter in phosphate and now the expectation is a bit lower out 1.7 million to 1.8 million tonnes a quarter. Is that just the turnaround in the first half and you'd expect to be higher after that? Or what are your thoughts on that?

是的。抱歉。我想問的是，磷酸鹽原先每季200萬噸的預期有什麼改變——抱歉，是每季200萬噸——現在預期略低，變成每季170萬到180萬噸。這只是因為上半年有歲修，所以之後你們預期會更高嗎？或者你們對此有什麼看法？

Yes. No, Evan, as we've talked about in I think, prior quarters where we started, our guide is going to be on -- actually demonstrated prior trailing three months, which means that there is likely upside to the numbers, Evan. But until we see them, we're just being more cautious on that as we probably got ahead of our skis in the past. So by no means have we lost confidence. And I think hopefully, the proof points that I gave earlier to, I think, the second question on where we are from an operating factor alludes to the progress that we are making and the confidence that we have and ultimately getting to that full utilization to hit 8 million tonnes.

是的。不，Evan，正如我們在我想前幾季談過的，我們的指引會以——實際上是以前三個月的已展現表現為基礎，這表示數字可能有上行空間，Evan。但在我們看到之前，我們只是更謹慎一些，因為過去我們可能有點過於樂觀。所以我們絕對沒有失去信心。而且我希望我先前給出的佐證點——我想是在第二個問題中、關於我們在營運面所處的位置——也暗示了我們正在取得的進展、我們的信心，以及最終達到滿載利用率以達成800萬噸。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

Kristen Owen，Oppenheimer。

Two brief ones for me. Just on mix. Just given some of the netbacks comments that you made, Jenny, can you help us in terms of how you're thinking about product mix and geographic mix in 2026? And then my second question just relates to the working capital. Can you give us a sense of how much of that working capital is tied up in Brazil?

我有兩個簡短問題。第一個關於組合。Jenny，考量你提到的一些淨回收（netbacks）評論，你能否協助我們理解你們對2026年產品組合與地理組合的思考？第二個問題與營運資金有關。你能否讓我們了解其中有多少營運資金是卡在巴西？

Thanks, Kristen. I'll start with the working capital one and maybe turn it over to Luciano to give you a little more color on that one.

謝謝，Kristen。我先回答營運資金的問題，然後也許再請Luciano補充一些細節。

Okay. So we're thinking about a release of a $500 million through a combination of factors through some release of rock inventories. The sales above production in the phosphate business, Brazil as well, which ended up with slowed down sales at the end of the quarter, and therefore, we had to pay a lot of accounts payable for purchase nutrients that we didn't repurchase. So that drag down, working capital will also -- all these factors with normalization of demand should -- and production should come down. And our estimate is $300 million to $500 million of contribution for cash flow this year.

好的。我們預期透過多項因素的組合釋放5億美元，包括釋放部分磷礦石庫存。磷酸鹽業務的銷售高於產量，巴西也是如此；但季度末銷售放緩，因此我們必須支付大量應付帳款，用於先前採購、但後來沒有再回購的養分產品。因此這些拖累因素，隨著需求常態化——以及產量——應該會下降。我們估計今年對現金流的貢獻為3億至5億美元。

And then, Kristen, on product mix and geographic mix. I'm just going to turn it over to Jenny to give you the latest thoughts on that.

然後，Kristen，關於產品組合與地理組合。我先把問題交給 Jenny，請她分享最新的看法。

Kristen, I think your question probably more towards to phosphate. Usually, our phosphate production goes around 55% to 60% stay in North America and the rest for the export market. This year, we are going to watch the market trend and demand very closely, especially in the US market. I wouldn't be surprised to see increased sales of phosphate to the international market and less percentage in North America. It is really market demand driven.

Kristen，我想你的問題可能更偏向磷酸鹽。通常，我們的磷酸鹽產量約有 55% 到 60% 留在北美，其餘則供出口市場。今年我們會非常密切地觀察市場趨勢與需求，特別是美國市場。我不會意外看到磷酸鹽對國際市場的銷售增加、北美占比下降。這確實是由市場需求所驅動。

And I think, Kristen, what's driving that to Jenny's point, is how disciplined China stays to their export constraints. If it goes beyond the first half of the year, there may be even more opportunities on the international side, but we are getting reach out from customers who traditionally may be served more by the Chinese export market, looking for tonnes. And I think it's important to understand that from our view anyway is that the phosphate market is a supply-constrained market. So people are out there, particularly in India, Southeast Asia, looking for tonnes that would otherwise more traditionally have been supplied through China. And given their discipline and policy announcements, there could be meaningful reduction again this year on exports available from China.

而且我想，Kristen，推動這點、呼應 Jenny 的看法的是，中國對其出口限制能維持多大的紀律性。如果這種情況延續到上半年之後，國際市場端可能會有更多機會；我們也收到一些客戶的詢問，他們過去傳統上可能更多由中國出口市場供應，現在在尋找噸數。我認為重要的是要理解，至少從我們的角度來看，磷酸鹽市場是一個供給受限的市場。因此，市場上有很多人，特別是在印度、東南亞，正在尋找原本更傳統會由中國供應的噸數。而考量到中國的紀律性與政策公告，今年來自中國可供出口的量可能再次出現顯著下降。

And one of the reasons why the corporate segment is actually improving performance is because of our sales through in India, which are accounted for in that segment. So there's increased contribution -- EBITDA contribution, but within the corporate segment, which is the negative amount is declining.

而企業部門之所以實際上表現正在改善，其中一個原因是我們在印度的銷售，這些是計入該部門的。因此 EBITDA 貢獻增加；同時在企業部門內，原本為負的金額正在下降。

Benjamin Theurer, Barclays.

Benjamin Theurer，Barclays。

This is [Rahi] on for Ben. So just a couple of questions from the $300 per tonne in sulfur cost in your cost of goods sold in 4Q and the benchmark level hitting about $500 in late last quarter. Is it reasonable to assume some average around $400 per metric tonne for sulfur costs in 1Q? Or would this boost automatically, you think, already in 1Q to $500 per metric tonne for sulfur. And then also for Fertilizantes, is the $50 million EBITDA to go forward per quarter, if product stays curtailed?

我是代 Ben 提問的 [Rahi]。有幾個問題：你們第四季銷貨成本中硫磺成本是每噸 300 美元，而上季末基準價格一度到約 500 美元。是否可以合理假設第一季硫磺成本平均約每公噸 400 美元？還是你認為這個上升會在第一季就自動推升到每公噸 500 美元的硫磺成本？另外，關於 Fertilizantes，如果產品仍維持限產，未來每季 5,000 萬美元 EBITDA 是否可延續？

Thanks for your question. Let's start with your first one, sulfur. I probably ask Jenny to weigh in on this as well. But that sulfur price, as you well noted, does flow through inventory. We do see in our [heard] forecast, but more to come through that sulfur will moderate in price as the year goes on.

謝謝你的問題。先從第一個、硫磺開始。我也請 Jenny 一起補充。不過如你所指出，硫磺價格確實會透過存貨流轉反映出來。我們在（我聽到的）預測中看到，隨著年度推進，硫磺價格將趨於緩和，後續會更明顯。

But sulfur in COGS through quarter 1 to quarter 2, may actually increase as that higher-cost sulfur that we negotiated in quarter 1 flows through inventory. Jenny, anything to add? And then on the second part of the question -- what was the second part? I'll turn it over to Luciano, sorry, $50 million is not -- I mean, there's a lot of factors that go into quarter by quarter EBITDA. One is product mix, seasonally quarter 4, quarter 1, are always kind of low, just given product more nitrogen products, less volume, less on -- and lower volume, less on our performance products like MicroEssentials, which pull through a margin premium as an example.

但第一季到第二季，銷貨成本中的硫磺成本可能反而會上升，因為我們在第一季談定的較高成本硫磺會透過存貨流轉反映出來。Jenny，還有要補充的嗎？然後第二部分的問題——第二部分是什麼？我把它交給 Luciano。抱歉，5,000 萬美元並不是——我的意思是，單季 EBITDA 受到很多因素影響。其中之一是產品組合；季節性來看，第四季、第一季通常都偏低，因為產品更多是氮肥、量較少、而且——以及較低的銷量，像 MicroEssentials 這類高性能產品的占比也較低；以此為例，這些產品通常能帶來溢價毛利。

So there's a lot of things that depend on that. But $50 million is not the new normal.

所以有很多事情會取決於這些因素。但 5,000 萬美元不是新的常態。

It's definitely going to be better than that. First and foremost, Uberaba coming back and normalizing its level of production will uplift this. And we should expand our distribution margins as well. So we should expect a much higher EBITDA on a quarterly basis going forward. The wildcard is continuing to be Araxa, which right now is idle.

肯定會比那更好。首先，Uberaba 恢復並使產量回到正常水準，將會推升表現。我們也應該能擴大我們的通路/分銷利潤率。因此，未來每季的 EBITDA 應可望顯著提高。變數仍然是 Araxa，目前處於停工狀態。

And currently, the expenditures are hitting, although we are saving on CapEx and other things, the expenditures are continuing to hit EBITDA at a rate of around $10 million per month. But -- yes. But still with that, performance should improve.

而且目前相關支出仍在反映；雖然我們在資本支出與其他項目上有節省，但這些支出仍以每月約 1,000 萬美元的速度影響 EBITDA。但是——是的。即便如此，表現仍應改善。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

Edlain Rodriguez，Mizuho。

This is a question for Jenny. So we saw the demand defer destruction in phosphates in Q4. Like are you surprised that farmers took a holiday in phosphate, but not on product, especially given the two mineral fertilizers tend to be applied in tandem?

這個問題問 Jenny。我們看到第四季磷酸鹽需求出現延後/需求破壞。你是否意外農民在磷酸鹽上「放假」不買，但在（另一個）產品上沒有，尤其考量這兩種礦物肥料通常會搭配施用？

Yes. Go ahead, Jenny.

是的。Jenny，你先請。

Yes. Thanks. I guess your question is probably more referred to US. Am I surprised to the demand destruction phosphate? I would say when we had this earnings call back in October for Q4, we did mention there were some uncertainties on the demand in Q4 on both phosphate and potash. One is related to when the US government payment is going to be made. And the second part is really weather. Eventually, the weather didn't really come through that basically cut off some of the applications, which could have been in November and December.

是的。謝謝。我想你的問題可能主要是指美國。我是否對磷酸鹽的需求破壞感到意外？我會說，我們在 10 月針對第四季的法說時，確實提到第四季磷酸鹽與鉀肥的需求都有一些不確定性。其中之一與美國政府補貼款項何時發放有關。第二個因素其實是天氣。最後天氣並未配合，基本上使得一些原本可能在 11 月與 12 月進行的施用被迫中止。

The demand destruction on phosphate are far greater than potash. Big part of the reason is potash affordability, the price are much more affordable and then phosphate and nitrogen. Last question that you asked, that was a very interesting one because I thought the same. The US farmers, they wouldn't go to the field, only put down potash without getting nitrogen and phosphate in and indeed happened in December and in November. Some of the farmers, they basically -- they decided to wait until phosphate price getting reset, which, of course, we all know it is unlikely going to happen given the tight supply situation.

磷酸鹽的需求破壞遠大於鉀肥。很大一部分原因是鉀肥的可負擔性——其價格比磷酸鹽與氮肥便宜得多。你最後問的那個問題很有意思，因為我也這麼想。美國農民不太可能下田只施鉀肥，而不施氮肥與磷酸鹽；但 11 月與 12 月確實發生了。有些農民基本上——他們決定等磷酸鹽價格重新定價；當然，我們都知道，在供給吃緊的情況下，這不太可能發生。

But yes, indeed, there are farmers, they went to the field potash application without phosphate. It is not very common.

但確實有農民下田施鉀肥、卻不施磷酸鹽。這並不常見。

David Symonds, BNP Paribas.

David Symonds，BNP Paribas。

Just a couple of modeling ones left. So you mentioned that Faustina will be 50% more available in 2026 than it was in '25. I don't know how low we go out in 2025. But can you just confirm if you did 7 million tonnes of phosphate production, how much of that is -- or how much of your ammonia requirement is served by Faustina in 2026? And the second one, I'm not fairly clear how you accounted for the increased value of your sulfur inventory.

還有幾個建模問題。你提到 Faustina 在 2026 年的可用性會比 2025 年高 50%。我不確定 2025 年會降到多低。但你能否確認一下：如果你們磷酸鹽產量是 700 萬噸，其中有多少——或者說你們在 2026 年的氨需求有多少是由 Faustina 供應？第二個問題是，我不太清楚你們如何處理硫磺存貨價值上升所帶來的增加價值。

So could you just say it, was there an inventory gain in your EBITDA in your adjusted EBITDA in the phosphate business for the increase in the sulfur value?

所以你能否直接說明：在磷酸鹽業務中，硫磺價值上升是否在你們的 EBITDA、或調整後 EBITDA 中形成了存貨收益？

Yes. On the ammonia one, just to confirm, David, we will -- given the turnaround we just did in quarter 4, any upgrades that we've made at that facility. We expect 50% -- up to 50% more production out of that facility going into 2026. Now that it's up and running, that will consume a larger percentage of our portfolio as consumed -- as produced ammonia and that is going to be 35% to 40% of the portfolio versus much less than that, which we would have been exposed to market on. So the biggest component still remains kind of our strategic contracts, which are cost-based is, then we've got 35% to 40% at times maybe a little bit more from Faustina, not only will Faustina consume its own ammonia fully, we'll have enough to ship into the Florida system and then we'll be much less exposed with the remainder to spot.

是的。關於氨這一塊，David，我再確認一下——鑑於我們剛在第4季完成的歲修，以及我們在該設施所做的任何升級。我們預期到2026年，該設施的產量將提高50%——最多可增加50%。現在它已經恢復運轉，這將在我們的組合中占用更高比例——以生產出的氨來供應消耗，而這將占組合的35%到40%，相較之下，原本這部分我們會更多暴露在市場價格之下。因此，最大的組成部分仍然是我們的策略性合約，這些是以成本為基礎；接著我們有35%到40%（有時可能略高一些）來自Faustina。不僅Faustina會完全消耗其自產的氨，我們還會有足夠的量可運往佛羅里達系統，然後剩餘部分我們對現貨市場的曝險將大幅降低。

So there's absolutely no revaluation of inventory. There are no gains recorded on EBITDA. The reason why prices affect inventory is mostly in Brazil because in Brazil, you have purchased nutrients. So if prices go up, you need to pay higher prices and therefore, your inventory is recorded at a higher value. But in North America, which is everything is produced, inventories that recorded at cost of production is not revalued and there's no gain or loss.

所以絕對沒有存貨重估。EBITDA上也沒有記錄任何收益。價格之所以會影響存貨，主要是在巴西，因為在巴西你們有外購的養分。因此如果價格上漲，你就需要支付更高的價格，存貨也就以更高的價值入帳。但在北美，因為一切都是自產，存貨是以生產成本入帳，不會重估，也不會有任何損益。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

Mike Sison，富國銀行。

Just one quick one. You all said there's a $250 headwind in the first quarter given the restricting margins are at. If slide 14, February '26 metrics don't change. Is that a similar headwind for the rest of the quarters? And I understand sulfur is supposed to come down, hopefully.

我只有一個很快的問題。你們說第一季有2.5億美元的不利因素（headwind），因為剝離後的利潤率（stripping margins）目前的水準。如果投影片14、2026年2月的指標沒有變。那麼其餘各季也會有類似的不利因素嗎？我也理解硫磺價格應該會下來，希望如此。

And any sensitivity on how that $250 million goes away and what the important variables are as the year unfolds.

另外，能否談談這2.5億美元會如何消退的敏感度，以及隨著年度推進最重要的變數是什麼。

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Obviously, if sulfur price persists at that level, the component of margin erosion -- or to the stripping margin erosion for that sulfur would play would stay constant. We also see ammonia prices coming down throughout '26 as well. So there is an offset to that.

是的。謝謝你，Mike。顯然，如果硫磺價格持續維持在那個水準，硫磺對利潤率侵蝕——或對剝離後利潤率侵蝕的影響——就會維持不變。我們也看到氨價在2026年期間也會下滑。因此這會形成一定的抵銷。

And then ultimately, it depends on what we talked about earlier in the call is how much can be passed through on price and what ultimately happens with price to the realization on stripping margin. The other benefit that we will see is we'll see better from '25 to '26, better turnaround and idle cost. And we'll also see, as production improves, better fixed cost absorption on conversion cost that will buffer out some of that time. So not all is static. There's a lot of moving parts, but those are the variables -- the key variables that go into that.

最終，這取決於我們在電話會議前面談到的：有多少能透過價格轉嫁，以及價格最終如何影響剝離後利潤率的實現。我們還會看到另一個好處：從2025到2026年，歲修與停工成本會更好。而且隨著產量改善，轉換成本的固定成本吸收會更好，這將緩衝其中一部分影響。所以並非一切都是靜態的。變動因素很多，但這些就是——影響其中的關鍵變數。

Luciano, anything else to add?

Luciano，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. So realized 3P margins in the fourth quarter were $444 per tonne. And so if you correct for the current sulfur prices compared to the 306 that was recorded in the fourth quarter, it would have somehow $400 per tonne of stripping margins. And so what would be the impact to the bottom line? So just to give you an example, today, at $444, the EBITDA margin per tonne was $108.

有。所以第4季實現的3P利潤率是每噸444美元。因此，如果你用目前的硫磺價格相較於第4季記錄的306美元來做調整，剝離後利潤率大概會是每噸400美元左右。那麼對最終損益的影響會是什麼？舉例來說，今天在444美元時，每噸的EBITDA利潤是108美元。

That per se suggests if you just take $444 less $108, that $330 would have been a breakeven point at Q4. However, there's about a $50 penalty just because of turnaround expenses and other SG&A expenses divided by a very small sales volume. So I would say these two lines are kind of $50 above what they should be. So that puts us at a $280 breakeven. And if you add the cost dilution that we expect going for 8 million tonnes, like we should be around $250 per tonne of 3P margin breakeven.

這本身表示，如果你只是用444減掉108，那330美元會是第4季的損益兩平點。不過，因為歲修費用以及其他SG&A費用被非常小的銷售量分攤，大約還有50美元的懲罰（penalty）。所以我會說，這兩條線大概比它們應有的水準高出50美元。因此損益兩平點會落在280美元。再加上我們預期在800萬噸規模下的成本稀釋效應，我們的3P利潤率損益兩平點應該大約是每噸250美元。

So in a normalized world, at a $400 3P margin, we should be making $150 per tonne approximately. Just a ballpark for you to reason around the phosphate performance.

所以在一個正常化的情境下，若3P利潤率是400美元，我們每噸大約應該能賺150美元。這只是給你一個大概的數字，方便你推估磷酸鹽業務的表現。

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Bruce Bodine for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給Bruce Bodine，請他做結語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us. To conclude our call, I'd like to reiterate our key messages for today. Clearly, the second half of 2025 was challenging for Mosaic in the agriculture business, especially in the US. We saw demand drop significantly as farmers dealt with tough economics and uncertainty around government payments. That said, our outlook for 2026 is positive, in part because demand is emerging in the US and remains strong in other key areas of the world, but also because of the progress we've made to strengthen Mosaic.

謝謝各位參與。在結束本次電話會議之前，我想重申今天的關鍵訊息。顯然，2025年下半年對Mosaic的農業業務而言相當具挑戰性，尤其是在美國。我們看到需求顯著下滑，因為農民面臨艱困的經濟環境，以及政府補助款項的不確定性。儘管如此，我們對2026年的展望是正面的，部分原因是美國需求正在浮現，且世界其他關鍵地區的需求仍然強勁；同時也因為我們在強化Mosaic方面所取得的進展。

We're on track to improve phosphate production, and we expect a strong year for potash production. We made good progress on cost and efficiency and we expect further strides this year. Our Mosaic Biosciences platform is growing quickly and holds meaningful promise for the future. And our capital allocation program continues to produce results with several divestitures of noncore assets in 2025. So overall, Mosaic is well positioned to weather the storm and deliver strong earnings as business conditions improve.

我們正按計畫提升磷酸鹽產量，並預期鉀肥產量將有強勁的一年。我們在成本與效率方面取得了良好進展，並預期今年會有更進一步的提升。我們的Mosaic Biosciences平台正在快速成長，並對未來具有重要的發展潛力。我們的資本配置計畫也持續產生成果，2025年已完成數項非核心資產的剝離。因此整體而言，隨著經營環境改善，Mosaic已具備良好定位，能夠度過風暴並交出強勁獲利。

Thank you very much, and have a safe day.

非常感謝，祝各位平安順利。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線，祝您有美好的一天。