美盛公司 (MOS) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2026 會計年度第二季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

And now I'll turn it over to Mr. Paul Massoud. Please go ahead.

接下來把時間交給 Paul Massoud 先生。請開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our second-quarter 2026 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer; Luciano Siani Pires, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer will review financial results. We will then welcome Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial, to join Bruce and Luciano as we open the floor for questions. We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. Statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2026 會計年度第二季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁暨執行長 Bruce Bodine 提供；執行副總裁暨財務長 Luciano Siani Pires 將回顧財務結果。接著我們將歡迎商務執行副總裁 Jenny Wang 加入 Bruce 與 Luciano，一同開放提問。本次電話會議中我們將作出前瞻性陳述。相關陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。

They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published this morning and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

這些陳述係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並可能受到重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們今早發布的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的報告中。

Please note, in today's presentation and in our press release and performance data, we will refer to and provide various financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted earnings per share, free cash flow, cost per tonne and adjusted effective tax rate, either on a total company or segment basis. Unless we specifically state otherwise, statements regarding these measures refer to our adjusted non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to our most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release.

請注意，在今日簡報以及我們的新聞稿與績效資料中，我們將引用並提供多項財務衡量指標，包括調整後 EBITDA、調整後每股盈餘、自由現金流、每噸成本與調整後有效稅率，可能以全公司或分部為基礎呈現。除非我們另有明確說明，關於這些指標的陳述均指我們調整後的非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些指標與最直接可比較之 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表，請見我們的財報新聞稿。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce.

現在我想把電話交給 Bruce。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call. Our message for you today is simple. Mosaic is working through a difficult market by successfully managing what is under our control and positioning ourselves for an eventual recovery. Sulfur affordability and availability remain key drivers, but we know the situation will improve. We've curtailed production, and we're relying on our strong balance sheet as a bridge to a more sustainable environment.

早安。感謝各位加入本次電話會議。今天要傳達的訊息很簡單。美盛正透過成功管理我們可控的事項，在艱困市場中前行，並為最終復甦做好布局。硫磺的可負擔性與供應可得性仍是關鍵驅動因素，但我們知道情勢會改善。我們已縮減產量，並依靠強健的資產負債表作為通往更可持續環境的橋樑。

Here are some key examples from the quarter. We further curtailed phosphate production and minimized our purchases of high-cost raw materials. We've locked in a significant portion of our third quarter sulfur supply at reasonable prices that, while historically elevated, are still well below the current spot market. Across our business, we're aggressively managing our costs, which you can see in SG&A. These are real savings that we expect to be permanent.

以下是本季的一些關鍵例子。我們進一步縮減磷酸鹽產量，並將高成本原料的採購降到最低。我們已以合理價格鎖定第三季相當大一部分的硫磺供應；雖然相較歷史水準仍偏高，但仍明顯低於目前現貨市場。在整體業務上，我們積極控管成本，這點可從銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）看出。這些都是真實的節省，我們預期將成為永久性節省。

We fortified our liquidity by terming out short-term debt. If this environment persists, we have full access to our untapped $2.5 billion revolver. And we've addressed all of these near-term issues without sacrificing our long-term goals. We're reallocating underperforming capital away from non-core assets to support future opportunities. We continue to explore strategic opportunities for certain assets, including Araxá and Patrocínio while investing in new areas like our fast-growing and resilient Mosaic Biosciences business.

我們透過將短期債務轉為較長期到期結構，強化了流動性。若此環境持續，我們可完全動用尚未使用的 25 億美元循環信貸額度（revolver）。而且我們在處理這些短期議題的同時，並未犧牲長期目標。我們正把表現不佳的資本配置自非核心資產移出，以支持未來機會。我們持續探索特定資產的策略性機會，包括 Araxá 與 Patrocínio，同時投資於新領域，例如我們成長快速且具韌性的 Mosaic Biosciences 業務。

Before I get into our business performance, let's address the sulfur situation in our markets. The ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure and the more recent Kazakhstan blockade continue to impact the global flow of sulfur and spot prices remain unsustainably high. We have curtailed production in the US and Brazil simply because phosphate industry economics cannot accommodate current sulfur prices. That said, Mosaic is in a better position to weather the storm than most of our competitors are.

在談業務表現之前，先說明我們市場中的硫磺情勢。荷姆茲海峽持續關閉，以及近期哈薩克封鎖事件，持續影響全球硫磺流通，現貨價格仍處於不可持續的高位。我們在美國與巴西縮減產量，原因很單純：磷酸鹽產業的經濟性無法承受目前的硫磺價格。儘管如此，相較多數競爭對手，美盛更有能力度過這場風暴。

Our long-standing relationships with Gulf Coast refiners and other global suppliers give us reliable access to sulfur. In fact, we were recently able to negotiate third quarter US sulfur supply at a price that is considerably below the spot market. We are producing to meet as much demand as possible while trying to preserve margins and avoid high-cost inventory building.

我們與墨西哥灣沿岸煉油商及其他全球供應商的長期合作關係，使我們能穩定取得硫磺。事實上，我們近期成功談妥第三季美國硫磺供應價格，顯著低於現貨市場。我們在盡可能滿足需求的同時，也努力維持利潤並避免建立高成本庫存。

The sulfur situation is more than just an inconvenience for our industry. We believe global phosphate production will fall well short of last year by up to 30 million tonnes. With last year's low application rates, especially in the US and limited fertilizer availability this year, crop yields will suffer, which could lead to food security challenges around the world in the near term. We are already seeing evidence of challenges.

硫磺情勢對本產業而言不僅是小麻煩。我們認為全球磷酸鹽產量將較去年大幅不足，最多可能少達 3,000 萬噸。在去年施用量偏低（尤其在美國）以及今年肥料供應有限的情況下，作物單產將受影響，短期內可能在全球引發糧食安全挑戰。我們已經看到挑戰的跡象。

In Brazil, for example, despite significant acreage expansion, total crop production forecasts for the year have not kept up, suggesting significant yield impacts. Another season of under application will only exacerbate the problem. Only recently have crop prices begun to acknowledge the reality of production challenges around the world. In the past month, major ag commodity prices have moved up, providing some relief from high input costs for the world's farmers. The outlook for farm incomes is improving, which should be a catalyst for fertilizer demand.

例如在巴西，儘管耕作面積大幅擴張，全年總作物產量預測卻未能同步上修，顯示單產受到顯著影響。若再出現一季施用不足，只會讓問題惡化。直到最近，作物價格才開始反映全球生產挑戰的現實。過去一個月，主要農產品大宗商品價格上漲，為全球農民在高投入成本下帶來一些緩解。農場收入展望正在改善，這應成為肥料需求的催化劑。

We're seeing early signs of this in Brazil. While shipments remain below historical levels as a result of ongoing credit issues, over the past several weeks, fertilizer shipments to Brazil have been very strong as growers respond to improved crop pricing. We expect phosphate prices to remain at current levels with sulfur-driven supply challenges as well as severely reduced Chinese exports, availability is likely to remain limited in many parts of the world. As we expected, the temporary suspension of the US countervailing duties on phosphate imports from Morocco has not yet had an impact on NOLA prices.

我們在巴西已看到一些早期跡象。雖然受持續的信用問題影響，出貨量仍低於歷史水準，但過去幾週對巴西的肥料出貨非常強勁，因種植戶對作物價格改善作出回應。我們預期磷酸鹽價格將維持在目前水準；在硫磺驅動的供應挑戰以及中國出口大幅縮減之下，全球多地的供應可得性可能仍然有限。如我們所預期，暫停對摩洛哥磷酸鹽進口課徵美國平衡稅（countervailing duties）迄今尚未對 NOLA 價格造成影響。

Phosphate prices remain higher in other key regions of the world and producers can realize higher netbacks selling in markets outside the US. So there is little incentive for producers to send fertilizer to the US. In addition, as part of the ongoing sunset review, the U.S. Department of Commerce has determined that the illegal subsidies that led to the duties in the first place remain in place in both Russia and Morocco. And the U.S. Court of International Trade recently reaffirmed the International Trade Commission's determination that the subsidies cause injury in the US market.

在全球其他關鍵地區，磷酸鹽價格仍更高，生產商在美國以外市場銷售可實現更高的淨回收（netbacks）。因此，生產商幾乎沒有誘因把肥料運往美國。此外，作為持續進行的落日審查（sunset review）的一部分，美國商務部已認定，最初導致課徵關稅的非法補貼在俄羅斯與摩洛哥仍然存在。而美國國際貿易法院近期也再次確認國際貿易委員會（ITC）的認定：該等補貼對美國市場造成損害。

We are confident that the duties should continue once the suspension ends. While phosphate and sulfur markets are quite volatile, the potash supply and demand picture is much more balanced with product moving freely around the world and global supply meeting strong demand in all major potash-consuming regions. In fact, our summer fill program was fully subscribed.

我們有信心，在暫停期結束後，這些關稅應會持續。雖然磷酸鹽與硫磺市場波動很大，但鉀肥的供需情勢更為均衡，產品在全球自由流通，全球供給能滿足所有主要鉀肥消費地區的強勁需求。事實上，我們的夏季補庫計畫已全數被認購。

Strong palm oil economics and inventory replenishment in China bode well for ongoing good potash demand. Overall, we expect the potash market to remain constructive through this year. And longer term, we continue to believe that announced potash capacity expansions will be absorbed by steadily growing demand.

棕櫚油良好的經濟性以及中國補庫，為鉀肥持續的良好需求帶來正面訊號。整體而言，我們預期今年鉀肥市場將維持建設性走勢。而從長期來看，我們仍相信已宣布的鉀肥產能擴張將可被穩定成長的需求所吸收。

Let's move on to our business, which is performing well, all things considered. Our global market access remains an important advantage. During the second quarter, we produced and sold 1.4 million tonnes of phosphate despite all the turmoil in the market. We were able to achieve these numbers because we have strong customer relationships across key agricultural markets, and we optimize our product mix to meet shifting demand.

接下來談談我們的業務；綜合各項因素來看，表現依然良好。我們的全球市場通路仍是重要優勢。第二季儘管市場動盪不安，我們仍生產並銷售了140萬公噸的磷酸鹽。我們之所以能達成這些數字，是因為我們在主要農業市場擁有穩固的客戶關係，並且優化產品組合以因應需求變化。

In addition, our ability to flex production and manage through the cycle is supported by the extensive work we completed over the past 18 months to fortify our assets. We're prepared to ramp back up to full production rates when market and raw material conditions improve.

此外，我們能夠彈性調整產量並穿越景氣循環，得益於過去18個月我們為強化資產所完成的大量工作。當市場與原料條件改善時，我們已準備好將產能提升回滿載生產水準。

Potash remains a steady earnings and cash flow contributor and our recent investments, including the HydroFloat project at Esterhazy will provide meaningful benefits. In Brazil, where we have curtailed all phosphate production, except for high-margin products due to sulfur availability, our business continues to perform well.

鉀肥仍是穩定的獲利與現金流貢獻來源，而我們近期的投資（包括Esterhazy的HydroFloat專案）將帶來顯著效益。在巴西，由於硫磺供應因素，除高毛利產品外我們已縮減所有磷酸鹽產量，但我們的業務仍持續表現良好。

Given the overall market conditions, our $60 million of EBITDA for the quarter highlights the resilience of our Fertilizantes franchise. Capital allocation remains an important pillar of our strategy, and we continue to make good progress. We closed the Carlsbad sale.

在整體市場環境下，本季6,000萬美元的EBITDA凸顯了我們Fertilizantes事業的韌性。資本配置仍是我們策略的重要支柱，我們也持續取得良好進展。我們已完成Carlsbad出售案。

We're optimizing our Brazil portfolio with the advancing process to divest our Araxá complex, and we're allocating capital in pursuit of promising growth opportunities. The Rainbow Rare Earth Elements project in Brazil continues to show good potential, and our Mosaic Biosciences business is on track to double its revenues once again this year. I want to note that Biosciences growth is strong despite current farm economics, a clear indicator that growers are finding real value in our proven products.

我們正透過推進出售Araxá綜合廠的流程來優化巴西資產組合，並將資本配置於具吸引力的成長機會。巴西的Rainbow稀土元素專案持續展現良好潛力，而我們的Mosaic Biosciences業務今年也按計畫再次將營收翻倍。我想特別指出，儘管目前農場經濟承壓，Biosciences的成長依然強勁，清楚顯示種植戶正從我們經驗證的產品中獲得實質價值。

To summarize, we are attacking a difficult market situation by doing all we can to keep the company strong and preserve our ability to benefit from improving markets. Now over to Luciano for more detail on our financials.

總結來說，我們正全力應對艱難的市場情勢，竭盡所能維持公司穩健，並保留在市場改善時受益的能力。接下來請Luciano更詳細說明我們的財務狀況。

Thank you, Bruce. If there is one takeaway for investors regarding our financials, it's that we are effectively managing factors under our control as we wait for a more sustainable market environment. In Phosphates and Fertilizantes, our operating costs were impacted by reduced absorption due to curtailed volumes. We're now doing two things simultaneously. First, we're aggressively removing fixed costs where we can, especially in Brazil to better cope with the temporary curtailments and to enable us to come back leaner when we restart.

謝謝你，Bruce。若要投資人從我們的財務表現中帶走一個重點，那就是：在等待更可持續的市場環境之際，我們正有效管理可控因素。在磷酸鹽與Fertilizantes業務中，由於縮減產量導致吸收不足，我們的營運成本受到影響。我們目前同時在做兩件事。第一，我們在可行之處積極削減固定成本，尤其是在巴西，以更好因應暫時性的減產，並讓我們在重啟時能以更精實的成本結構回歸。

Second, we're maintaining our focus on asset health so that we can return to full production rates when the time is right. In the near term, however, ongoing curtailments are expected to result in limited fixed cost absorption and elevated idle expenses in Phosphates and in Fertilizantes in the third quarter, but this is temporary and does not represent what this business is capable of in normal operating conditions. In our US Phosphate business, we've shown an ability to manage our input costs. In quarter two, our raw materials costs averaged $522 per long ton for sulfur and $621 per tonne for ammonia, resulting in an average realized stripping margin of $422 per tonne.

第二，我們持續聚焦資產健康，以便在時機成熟時回到滿載生產水準。然而在短期內，持續的減產預期將在第三季造成磷酸鹽與Fertilizantes業務固定成本吸收有限、閒置費用偏高；但這是暫時性的，並不代表該業務在正常營運條件下的能力。在美國磷酸鹽業務方面，我們展現了管理投入成本的能力。第二季，我們的原料成本平均為：硫磺每長噸522美元、氨每公噸621美元，使得平均實現的stripping margin為每公噸422美元。

For quarter three, as Bruce discussed, we settled a sulfur contract at $705 per ton. While much of this new contract price will be reflected in fourth quarter sales, we do expect some impact later in the third quarter. Given the dynamic nature of the market, we have chosen to once again provide some guidance for near-term raw materials costs.

第三季，如Bruce所述，我們以每噸705美元敲定了一份硫磺合約。雖然這份新合約價格多數將反映在第四季銷售中，但我們預期第三季後段也會出現部分影響。鑑於市場的動態特性，我們選擇再次提供短期原料成本的部分指引。

Therefore, for the third quarter, we expect realized sulfur costs of approximately $700 to $710 per ton and ammonia costs of approximately $610 to $620 per tonne. Combining this with our DAP FOB pricing guidance of $820 to $840 per tonne yields an implied realized stripping margin well above historical averages, which is a good result.

因此，對第三季而言，我們預期實現的硫磺成本約為每噸700至710美元，氨成本約為每公噸610至620美元。結合我們對DAP FOB價格的指引（每公噸820至840美元），推算出的實現stripping margin將明顯高於歷史平均水準，這是很好的結果。

In Potash, we successfully completed Esterhazy's annual turnaround during the second quarter. Looking ahead, the segment should see lower unit costs, especially with the additional volumes from Esterhazy's HydroFloat project. Second quarter MOP costs of $84 per tonne reflected a production mix that was more heavily weighted towards Colonsay volumes, but we expect to revert lower in the second half of the year. To offset some of the second quarter's curtailment impacts, we've become more aggressive in our review of corporate spending.

在鉀肥方面，我們已於第二季順利完成Esterhazy的年度歲修。展望未來，該事業部的單位成本應會下降，尤其是隨著Esterhazy的HydroFloat專案帶來額外產量。第二季MOP成本為每公噸84美元，反映出產量組合較偏向Colonsay的出貨量，但我們預期在下半年將回落。為抵消第二季減產的部分影響，我們也更積極檢視公司層級支出。

You can see in our results that we've brought SG&A costs down by 20% year-over-year despite persistent inflation. Increased spending discipline, reduced support labor costs, lower bad debt expenses and benefits from recent divestitures are driving these savings. In the second half of the year, we expect SG&A to decline further as more of these savings are realized.

從我們的結果可以看到，儘管通膨持續，我們仍將SG&A成本較去年同期降低了20%。更嚴格的支出紀律、較低的支援人力成本、較低的壞帳費用，以及近期資產出售帶來的效益，共同推動了這些節省。在今年下半年，隨著更多節省逐步實現，我們預期SG&A還會進一步下降。

From a cash flow perspective, we're starting to see the results of our actions. Mosaic's cash flow from operations improved through the first half of the year, and it is expected to rise further in the third quarter as working capital is released, mostly in Brazil and as additional cost reductions are realized. These are expected to more than offset any impact from higher raw materials costs. Combined with our lower CapEx expectation for the year of $1.2 billion, down from $1.25 billion, we expect sequential improvements in free cash flow in the third and in the fourth quarters.

從現金流角度來看，我們開始看到行動帶來的成果。Mosaic的營運現金流在上半年有所改善，且預期第三季將進一步上升，原因是營運資金釋放（主要在巴西）以及更多成本削減落地。這些預期將足以抵消原料成本上升的任何影響，甚至有餘。再加上我們將全年資本支出（CapEx）預期下調至12億美元（由12.5億美元下調），我們預期第三季與第四季的自由現金流將逐季改善。

Our strong balance sheet continues to provide us with the flexibility to manage through this environment. In the second quarter, we put in place a $1 billion term loan to replace and extend very short-term commercial paper maturities. We refinanced $500 million of our commercial paper in June and the rest was done in July. We have a very comfortable short-term liquidity position. We have not tapped our revolver at all, and we will continue to evaluate opportunities to optimize our balance sheet.

我們強健的資產負債表持續提供在此環境中運作的彈性。第二季，我們安排了一筆10億美元的定期貸款，用以替換並延長到期日非常短的商業本票。我們在6月再融資了5億美元的商業本票，其餘部分則在7月完成。我們的短期流動性部位非常充裕。我們完全未動用循環信貸額度（revolver），並將持續評估優化資產負債表的機會。

On the capital reallocation front, we continue to evaluate opportunities to optimize our portfolio and reallocate capital. We're advancing the process around Araxá, and we are progressing several opportunities involving our landholdings. To close, we've taken decisive actions and executed well as we work through the sulfur situation. The steps we have taken, first, across our operations; second, in our cost structure; third, in our capital spending; and fourth, in our balance sheet have all positioned us well for an ultimate recovery as market conditions normalize.

在資本重新配置方面，我們持續評估優化投資組合並重新配置資本的機會。我們正推進Araxá相關流程，並在涉及我們土地持有的多項機會上取得進展。最後，我們在處理硫磺情勢的過程中採取了果斷行動並執行到位。我們所採取的措施——第一，涵蓋各項營運；第二，針對成本結構；第三，針對資本支出；第四，針對資產負債表——都使我們在市場條件回歸正常後的最終復甦中處於有利位置。

And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

接下來我把電話交回給接線員，進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Duffy Fischer, Goldman Sachs.

(接線員指示) Duffy Fischer，高盛。

Question is just really around consumption in the Americas. So we know that last fall, we didn't put down -- and I saw on phosphate that we shorted the market on phosphate. Speculation is we did the same thing in the first half. So for this crop year, what's your best estimate for how much below normal phosphate application was for North America? And then a similar question, although it's looking forward, what do you think will be the application of phosphate in Latin America relative to normal?

問題主要是關於美洲地區的消費量。我們知道去年秋天，我們沒有施用——而且我看到在磷酸鹽方面，我們對市場的磷酸鹽供應偏緊。外界推測我們在上半年也做了同樣的事。因此，就本作物年度而言，你們對北美磷酸鹽施用量低於正常水準的幅度，最佳估計是多少？另外一個類似的問題（雖然是往前看）：你們認為拉丁美洲的磷酸鹽施用量相對於正常水準會是什麼情況？

Duffy, thanks for the question. You're right. We did see, as you said, application in North America down on phosphate last year. We're seeing the same thing this year. I'll turn it over to Jenny to give more details, but we also expect declines in Brazil and Latin America as well, mostly driven by Brazil. So let me turn it over to Jenny to give you details.

Duffy，謝謝你的提問。你說得沒錯。正如你所說，我們確實看到去年北美的磷肥施用量下降。今年我們也看到同樣的情況。我先請 Jenny 提供更多細節；但我們也預期巴西與拉丁美洲的施用量會下滑，主要是由巴西所帶動。那我就把時間交給 Jenny，請她說明細節。

Sure. So as you said, Duffy, last year, we believe North America phosphate application was down close to 15% versus the normal year. And this year, we are forecasting this application rate to further cut by around 20%. So if you compare with the normal typical phosphate application in North America, we're talking about over 30% phosphate down this year in '27. This is a combination of farm economic challenges, affordability issues but also it's an availability issue.

好的。如你所說，Duffy，我們認為去年北美的磷肥施用量相較於正常年份下降了接近 15%。而今年，我們預測施用率將再進一步下調約 20%。因此，若與北美典型的正常磷肥施用量相比，今年在『27 年』我們談的是磷肥施用量下降超過 30%。這是農場經濟挑戰、可負擔性問題，以及供應可得性問題等多重因素共同造成的。

So over to Latin America, especially in Brazil, last year, phosphate application didn't really go down. So that was normal last year. We actually saw some growth in Brazil last year. However, this year, we are forecasting similar percentage of the phosphate application down in Brazil by 30% at nutrient level. And this is likely going to be applied in the rest of the Latin America market.

再看拉丁美洲，特別是巴西，去年磷肥施用量其實沒有真的下降。所以去年是正常水準。我們去年在巴西實際上還看到一些成長。然而今年，我們預測巴西在養分層級的磷肥施用量將以相近的幅度下降 30%。而這種情況很可能也會出現在拉丁美洲其他市場。

In fact, this under application of phosphate are going to have profound impact to the yield -- specifically for North America and Brazil, by looking at what has been applied to the field and also what has been the yield over the last two years, we are seeing additional phosphate removal from the field in Brazil could be up to 1.3 million tonnes of DAP equivalent, for that number in North America, in the US, that's 1.4 million tonnes additional removal of the nutrient.

事實上，這種磷肥施用不足將對產量造成深遠影響——特別是在北美與巴西。從田間實際施用量以及過去兩年的產量來看，我們看到巴西因額外從田間移除的磷，可能高達 130 萬噸（以 DAP 等量計）；而北美方面，在美國，這個額外移除的養分量為 140 萬噸。

So as you can imagine, with this additional removal of phosphorus from the soil, that will have impact to the yield. And specifically, we have started to see yield impact in some of the major states in Brazil for the last crops. We see despite increased harvest areas, but the yield actually came down. That was evident in terms of the yield impact from this under application of phosphorus. US market, we may see the impact this year, which can be even more evident with the weather event.

因此你可以想像，隨著土壤中磷被額外移除，將會影響產量。具體而言，我們已開始在巴西一些主要州看到上一季作物的產量受到影響。我們看到儘管收穫面積增加，但單產實際上下降了。這清楚顯示磷施用不足對產量的影響。美國市場方面，我們可能在今年看到影響，而且若遇到天氣事件，影響可能更為明顯。

Joel Jackson, BMO.

Joel Jackson，BMO。

I'm trying to understand a bit about some of your guidance around phosphate in Q3. It's the ammonia cost you gave of $610 to $620 a tonne. It seems surprising considering I imagine that these run rates you're running at really just tonnes, cost and cost plus. I just want to ask about what's going on there?

我想更了解你們對第三季磷肥的一些指引。你們給的氨成本是每噸 610 到 620 美元。這看起來有點令人意外，因為我想像你們目前的運轉率基本上就是按噸計、成本與成本加成。我想問一下這裡到底發生了什麼？

And second part of the question would be, does this sort of imply that phosphate earnings are lower in Q3 by a little bit, a lot. So can you just give us color about Q3 phosphate earnings, all the things you're talking about and what that implies like relatively versus Q2 earnings?

第二個問題是，這是否意味著第三季磷肥獲利會比較低——是低一點，還是低很多？所以你能否就第三季磷肥獲利提供一些說明：你們提到的各項因素，以及這對相對於第二季獲利的意涵？

Yes, Joel, thanks for the question. We did -- as Luciano pointed out, ammonia will go up a little bit. Part of that is due to the flow-through of inventory of the contracts that were settled in June and July. So June, July, August came down, we'll see that actually flow through COGS in quarter four on the ammonia side. But to your point, a mix just because of lower production is going to be more heavily weighted towards those contract negotiations and our own internal production.

是的，Joel，謝謝你的提問。我們確實——如 Luciano 所指出，氨的成本會小幅上升。其中一部分是因為 6 月與 7 月結算的合約庫存成本會反映進來。因此 6、7、8 月的價格下來後，我們會在第四季於氨的成本端（COGS）看到它的反映。但如你所說，由於產量較低，產品組合會更偏向那些合約談判的供應，以及我們自有的內部生產。

So we're going to see a peak of that in Q3, which does kind of hurt stripping margins a little bit as well as the ammonia that Luciano talked about. But I would use those as factors as you're looking towards guidance. The other factors to think about are cost absorption for the additional production down in North America. Quarter 2 didn't represent all of those curtailments. Quarter three, given that those curtailments are likely to be sustained barring some unforeseen circumstance in the market, we'll have to absorb more of that.

因此我們會在第三季看到一個高點，這確實會讓剝離毛利（stripping margins）受到一些影響，另外也包括 Luciano 提到的氨因素。所以在你看指引時，可以把這些當作重要因素。另一個要考量的因素，是北美額外減產所帶來的成本吸收問題。第二季並未反映所有這些減產。第三季，由於這些減產在沒有市場出現不可預見情況的前提下很可能會持續，我們必須吸收更多相關影響。

So that will affect some of our conversion costs on the margin as well. So expect stripping margins to be down, but still the good news is well above kind of historic levels. So we're feeling good about where they are, even though there are some headwinds, we should start to see some tailwinds on pricing.

因此這也會在毛利上影響我們的一些轉換成本。所以預期剝離毛利會下滑，但好消息是仍遠高於歷史水準。因此即使有一些逆風，我們對目前水準仍感到樂觀，而且我們也應該開始在價格端看到一些順風。

As Jenny alluded to on yield impacts, we're starting to see crop -- ag commodity prices respond in a favorable level, which should raise the affordability piece on the farm side, which really is another constraint that may not be seen because of supply constraint. But that demand constraint definitely is out there if supply were to come back.

如 Jenny 提到的產量影響，我們開始看到作物——農產品大宗商品價格以有利的幅度回應，這應能提升農場端的可負擔性，這其實是另一個限制因素；只是因為供給受限，這個限制可能不那麼明顯。但如果供給回來，需求端的這個限制確實存在。

Luciano, I don't know if you want to add anything?

Luciano，我不知道你是否想補充？

And again, because we're guiding for sales between 1.1 million tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes compared to this quarter, 1.4 million tonnes, again, depending on how the market goes, there could be a little bit of downside in volumes as well.

另外，因為我們指引的銷量是 110 萬噸到 140 萬噸，相較於本季的 140 萬噸——同樣地，取決於市場走勢，銷量也可能會有一些下行空間。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews，Morgan Stanley。

My recollection is that you were previously expecting about a $400 million outflow of working capital through the course of the year. Is that still a good number to work with? Or do you think it will be more or less based on what you know today?

我記得你們先前預期全年營運資金會流出大約 4 億美元。這個數字現在仍然適用嗎？或者基於你們目前掌握的情況，你們認為會更多或更少？

Yes, Vincent, I think we've said $300 million to $500 million so $400 million is, yes, the midpoint of that kind of range. We do still expect that type of liberation. We saw some of that in Phosphate in the first half, but the bigger one that we've been pointing to comes often many times in this time of year historically is the liberation of working capital in Brazil. But we actually see that being more acute this year because our B2B business, our production is down. So you actually see more liberation. But Luciano has some details on that. I'll let him talk about it.

是的，Vincent，我想我們說過是 3 億到 5 億美元，所以 4 億美元是這個區間的中位數。我們仍預期會有這類型的釋放。上半年我們在磷肥業務看到了一部分，但我們一直指出更大的部分，歷史上往往會在每年這個時點出現，也就是巴西的營運資金釋放。但我們其實看到今年會更為明顯，因為我們的 B2B 業務、我們的產量都下降。所以你會看到更多釋放。不過 Luciano 有一些細節。我讓他來說明。

Okay. Vincent, so bear with me, this is going to be a little longer answer. So in Q1, we actually were kind of flat in working capital compared to a big investment the year prior. So that was a result of the destocking of phosphate inventories. In Q2, we actually increased inventories again by $200 million, but mostly in Brazil.

好的。Vincent，請容我多說一點，這會是一個稍微長一些的回答。第一季，我們的營運資金其實大致持平，相較於前一年有很大的投入。這是因為磷肥庫存去化（destocking）的結果。第二季，我們又把庫存增加了 2 億美元，但主要是在巴西。

And we actually collected a lot of the sales from the Q1 excess inventory that we discharge in Phosphates. So therefore, the working capital kind of situation in Q2 was negative, but not by a large amount. Again, which is -- if you compare it to prior year, it's a little better given the quarter we're talking about because of these collections from Q1. What really disappointed in Q2 were actually the prepayments in Brazil.

而且我們實際上回收了不少來自第一季在磷酸鹽業務中去化的超額庫存之銷售款項。因此，第二季的營運資金狀況是負的，但幅度不大。再者，如果你拿來和去年同期相比，考量到我們談的是這一季，因為第一季的這些回款，情況其實略有改善。第二季真正令人失望的是巴西的預付款。

If you look a year back, there was -- if you look in the cash flow statement, there was a very strong cash inflow from what we call accrued liabilities, which include prepayments we received from our customers in Brazil in anticipation for the sales of Q3.

如果你回看一年前——如果你看現金流量表——我們所謂的應計負債帶來了非常強勁的現金流入，其中包含我們在巴西從客戶那裡收到、為了預期第三季銷售而支付的預付款。

But there has been a clear change in buyer behavior because of many factors. So prepayments didn't come in as much, so close to 0. So the prepayments did not offset this small decline in working capital. But the consequence of that is that because prepayments didn't come in Q2 that farmers will actually need to pay for the product in Q3.

但由於多種因素，買方行為已出現明顯改變。因此預付款進來得不多，幾乎接近 0。所以預付款並未抵銷這一點點的營運資金下滑。但其結果是，因為第二季沒有收到預付款，農戶將需要在第三季為產品付款。

And so the sales in Q3 will be, as they've always been substantially higher. Just to give you a number, in the last 3 years, Brazil has sold 600,000 tonnes on average more in Q3 than in Q2. So these sales will kind of repeat this year. And the collections that are going to come from these sales are going to come mostly in Q4. So we should expect, first, some release of working capital in Q3, maybe between $100 million and $200 million, but the bulk of the $300 million to $500 million will come in the second quarter -- in the fourth quarter when the collections come in.

因此第三季的銷售將會如同以往一樣顯著更高。給你一個數字，過去三年，巴西第三季的銷量平均比第二季多 60 萬噸。所以今年的銷售大致也會重演這種情況。而這些銷售所帶來的回款多數會在第四季入帳。因此我們應該預期：第一，第三季會有一些營運資金釋放，可能在 1 億到 2 億美元之間；但 3 億到 5 億美元中的大部分將在第二個季度——也就是第四季——於回款進來時實現。

So I would say we are still subscribed to the $300 million to $500 million release. The dynamics has changed a little bit. But -- and yes, the last point that Bruce mentioned, this one is important because the distribution business in Brazil, you buy and you sell. So the cycle is comparatively short.

所以我會說，我們仍然維持 3 億到 5 億美元的釋放目標。只是動態稍微改變了一點。不過——而且 Bruce 提到的最後一點很重要，因為巴西的分銷業務是買進再賣出。所以週期相對較短。

The production business, you produce all over the year and then you sell mostly in Q3, which means that if we were producing, we would be rebuilding inventories in production in Q3 and in Q4. But because we are mostly curtailed in Brazil, that will not happen. And so therefore, the release in the distribution business will not be partially offset by another build in the production side. So again, that's another factor that the reason why we believe the $300 million to $500 million will come. Again, maybe a third of it will come in Q3 and two-thirds in Q4.

生產業務則是全年生產、主要在第三季銷售，這意味著如果我們在生產，第三季與第四季會在生產端重新累積庫存。但因為我們在巴西大多處於減產狀態，這種情況不會發生。因此，分銷業務的營運資金釋放不會被生產端的再度補庫所部分抵銷。所以這也是我們相信 3 億到 5 億美元會實現的另一個原因。同樣地，可能三分之一會在第三季、三分之二在第四季。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

Chris Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

Got it. Can we just kind of take a step back, just given all the noise of curtailments, and I think those have been notoriously well publicized. But you said in your release that you're operating Bartow about 40%. Louisiana is entirely offline. Given the guidance of kind of production and volume sales at least for the third quarter, does that basically imply both New Wales and Riverview are somewhere in the low to mid-70s?

了解。我們能不能稍微退一步看，考量到減產的各種雜音，而且我想那些也早已廣為報導。但你在新聞稿裡說 Bartow 的運轉大約在 40%。路易斯安那則是完全停機。以你們對第三季至少在產量與銷售量方面的指引來看，這是否基本上意味著 New Wales 和 Riverview 兩座廠大概都在 70% 出頭到 70% 中段？

I mean, obviously, I know there were some maintenance activity in the first half. But in terms of getting those -- both of those facilities, specifically New Wales back to an operating rate, which you'd be eventually happy with and the implications in a normalized environment.

我的意思是，顯然我知道上半年有一些維修活動。但就把那兩座——特別是 New Wales——拉回到你們最終會滿意的運轉率，以及在正常化環境下的意涵而言。

Bruce, I'd just love to hear your thoughts on kind of where we are in the third quarter, how we're progressing and how we should think about that if and when things finally normalize in terms of how you can operate your network?

Bruce，我很想聽聽你對第三季我們目前所處位置、進展情況，以及當一切最終在你們網路的運作層面恢復正常時（如果、以及何時），我們應該如何看待的想法？

Yes, Chris, I think you're pretty spot on, on the operating rates in the mid-70s at the other facilities. So let me just go back maybe a little bit and set the stage. I think of what you're looking for -- as we came out of Q1, Q2 turnaround at New Wales, prior to the big announcements of curtailments and conserving sulfur inventory that was lower cost out of Q1 and Q2, New Wales was running at its kind of full utilization rate. So we were seeing great signs of that.

是的，Chris，我想你對其他設施在 70% 中段的運轉率判斷相當準確。所以我先稍微回頭把背景鋪陳一下。我理解你想問的是——我們從第一季出來、第二季 New Wales 大修完成之後，在那些大規模減產公告以及為了保留第一季與第二季較低成本的硫磺庫存之前，New Wales 基本上是以接近滿載的利用率在運轉。所以我們當時看到非常好的跡象。

Then came -- we pulled the brakes back on everything in Louisiana and kind of the Central Florida network to conserve sulfur. So we saw great signs on a sustained basis for good parts of the month following start-up out of turnaround. Riverview also had a turnaround, came up, it never really had a chance to stretch its legs at full capacity because we were already kind of sulfur curtailed, if you want to look at it that way. So we've seen good signs at all of our facilities.

接著——我們在路易斯安那以及中佛羅里達的整個網路上都踩了煞車，以保留硫磺。因此，在大修後重新開車的接下來一段時間裡，我們在一個月中相當多的時間都持續看到很好的表現。Riverview 也做了大修、也重新開車，但它其實從未真正有機會在滿載下「伸展拳腳」，因為我們已經在某種程度上受到硫磺限制——如果你想這樣看。所以我們在所有設施上都看到不錯的跡象。

Now I think the last one out there was at New Wales, and we did get to stretch its legs following turnaround, and we're very encouraged by what we saw running at its full capacity target. The sulfur thing, as you pointed out, has put a constraint. We are only dealing with sulfur based on our contract volumes, which provide that full run rate that you just described, Chris, which is still a little bit down at New Wales and Riverview, 40% at Bartow and then 100% down at New Wales. So that sulfur supply -- I'm sorry, at Louisiana, that sulfur supply is what we're now constrained to and how we're trying to optimize.

我想最後一個例子是在 New Wales，我們確實在大修後讓它有機會全力運轉，而我們對其在滿載目標下的表現非常受鼓舞。如你所指出，硫磺因素帶來了限制。我們目前只能依照合約量來取得硫磺；這些合約量能支撐你剛描述的滿載運轉率，Chris，但 New Wales 和 Riverview 仍略低一些，Bartow 為 40%，然後 New Wales 為 100% 停機。所以硫磺供應——抱歉，是路易斯安那——目前就是我們受限的條件，也是我們正在嘗試最佳化的基礎。

Now what will happen in any given week or any given month depending on what product demand there is because we don't have endless product capability at every facility. Those are the general targets that we're shooting for. But if we have higher DAP demand coming out of the international market, and we need to run Bartow a little bit more and run Riverview or New Wales a little bit less because that's where we can make more DAP for an active market, that's what we'll do.

接下來在任何一週或任何一個月會發生什麼，取決於產品需求，因為我們並不是每個廠都具備無限的產品生產能力。這些是我們大致瞄準的目標。但如果國際市場的 DAP 需求更高，而我們需要把 Bartow 多開一點、同時讓 Riverview 或 New Wales 少開一點，因為那樣我們能為活躍市場生產更多 DAP、獲得更好的效益，那我們就會這麼做。

So it is a little bit messy during this constrained period of time, but we're managing to the sulfur constraint and then pairing that up to where active demand is with highest netbacks and what product mix we can make at what facility. There are a number of other factors like water balance, utilization of people around the network, et cetera, et cetera, that go into that decision.

所以在這段受限期間確實有點混亂，但我們是在硫磺限制下進行管理，並把它與哪裡有最活躍的需求、最高的淨回收（netbacks），以及各廠能做出什麼產品組合相互配對。還有許多其他因素，例如水量平衡、網路內人員的配置使用等等，都會納入這個決策。

But the decision right now is not to try to run hard at any one site. It's to try to optimize for the constraint of sulfur for what the active product in whatever markets that are active and then producing that in Central Florida now because Louisiana is 100% down. I hope that answers. I know it's complicated. I wish there was an easier way to formulaically tell you something, but we'd be happy to follow up on a call if necessary.

但目前的決策不是要在任何單一據點全力衝高運轉。而是要在硫磺限制下做最佳化，針對各個仍然活躍的市場之活躍產品，並在中佛羅里達進行生產，因為路易斯安那是 100% 停機。希望這回答了你的問題。我知道這很複雜。我希望有更簡單、可以用公式化方式告訴你的說法，但如有需要，我們也很樂意在電話中再跟進。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

It's a two-part question. Your cash flows from operations are about $270 million year-to-date and your overall spending on CapEx loss and dividends is about $1.5 billion. So order of magnitude, will you -- maybe cash flow from operations this year can be $900 million if you hit your working capital targets or $1 billion. So are you going to be maybe about $500 million or so short of the cash outlays that you have to make? And secondly, Faustina is your lowest cost source of ammonia. Why is Faustina being closed down? Is it that you have commitments to buy ammonia and so you would have too much. What's your strategy there?

這是一個兩部分的問題。你們年初至今的營運現金流大約是2.7億美元，而你們在資本支出、虧損以及股利上的總支出大約是15億美元。所以以量級來看——如果你們達成營運資金目標，今年的營運現金流可能是9億美元或10億美元。那麼你們是否可能會比必須支付的現金支出短缺大約5億美元左右？第二，Faustina 是你們成本最低的氨來源。為什麼要關閉 Faustina？是不是因為你們有購買氨的承諾，所以會變成氨過剩？你們那邊的策略是什麼？

I'm going to let -- thanks, Jeff, for sure. Let Luciano answer the first part of the question, but let me address the Faustina thing because there's some misunderstanding there. We are used -- running Faustina's ammonia plant full, and we're using that within the Florida network.

我先——當然，謝謝你，Jeff。我先讓 Luciano 回答問題的第一部分，但我想先談談 Faustina，因為這裡有些誤解。我們一直——讓 Faustina 的氨工廠滿載運轉，並且在佛羅里達的網路內部使用。

So again, it becomes what a product mix issue is, how we can manage water going into hurricane season and what outlets we have at individual facilities. Louisiana has a lot of flexibility to be 100% down in that regard on fertilizer production.

所以再說一次，這變成產品組合的問題、我們如何在颶風季來臨前管理進水，以及各個設施各自有哪些出貨/去化管道。路易斯安那在肥料生產方面有很大的彈性，可以在那方面做到100%停產。

But no doubt, we're going to take advantage of the producer economics, ammonia and use that by shipping it across Gulf into Florida. And if we have excess, we would sell it into the market because it's quite attractive from a profitability standpoint. But the intent is not to run it, to sell it. It's -- the first intent is run the ammonia plant to utilize within the Florida network. Luciano, over to you on cash flow.

但毫無疑問，我們會利用生產端的經濟性，生產氨並把它跨墨西哥灣運到佛羅里達使用。如果有多餘的量，我們會賣到市場上，因為從獲利角度看相當有吸引力。但我們的目的不是為了運轉它來對外銷售。也就是說——首要目的，是運轉氨工廠以供佛羅里達網路內部使用。Luciano，現金流的部分交給你。

So Jeff, your numbers are -- yes, are correct, both for the cash flows from operations for the full year and for the sum of the capital expenditures with the dividend, which means, yes, we're going to be down around $500 million for the year. But most of it is passed already. So I would say our expectation is to be indebtedness kind of stable in Q3 and then go down a little bit in Q4. And of course, if this is -- goes into 2027, which we do not believe we need to pull additional levers to try to balance those things. But again, the message is, so far, we're managing for a temporary situation.

Jeff，你的數字——是的——是正確的，無論是全年營運現金流，或是資本支出加上股利的合計；也就是說，是的，我們全年大約會短缺5億美元左右。但其中大部分已經發生了。所以我會說，我們的預期是在第三季負債水準大致持平，然後在第四季小幅下降。當然，如果這——延續到2027年（我們不認為需要），我們會再採取額外手段來嘗試平衡這些項目。但再次強調，到目前為止，我們是在管理一個暫時性的狀況。

And we believe not only this is unsustainable, but maybe as a follow-up to the first question on under application, whenever the bounce back comes, it will come up with a lot of pent-up demand. As much as people are talking about, for example, the need to replenish strategic oil reserves following the resolution of the conflict as much as there was a lot of revenge travel following COVID, there will be some revenge fertilizer application for years to come to support, we think, the business. So it's just a question to how to manage until we get there.

而且我們相信這不僅不可持續；另外，作為對第一個「施用不足」問題的延伸，一旦反彈出現，會伴隨大量被壓抑的需求。就像大家在談，例如衝突解決後需要補充戰略石油儲備；也像 COVID 之後出現大量「報復性旅遊」一樣，未來幾年也會出現某種「報復性施肥」，以支撐——我們認為——業務。所以問題只是要如何管理，直到我們走到那一步。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

Ben Theurer，巴克萊。

I wanted to dig a little bit into your outlook for the back half in Fertilizantes, just given that the purely the focus shifts towards South America. So you've mentioned in your release and in the commentary that you expect profitability to be down in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

我想更深入了解你們對 Fertilizantes 下半年展望，尤其是因為重點純粹轉向南美。你們在新聞稿與評論中提到，預期第三季的獲利能力會較第二季下滑。

Can you help us understand what the main drivers are behind that? Is that just associated with your own production? Is that part of the distribution business coming? Is it all of it? And then how should we conceptually think as you look into these dynamics around increased crop pricing and so on for the business in South America as we move into the fourth quarter?

你能幫我們理解背後的主要驅動因素是什麼嗎？這只是與你們自身的生產相關嗎？是通路/分銷業務的部分因素嗎？還是全部都有？另外，當我們進入第四季、觀察南美業務在作物價格上升等動態時，概念上應該如何思考？

Yes, I appreciate the question there, Ben. Let me tee it up and then Luciano can get into some details on more on the EBITDA and how to think about that out of Fertilizantes. But let's start with kind of volume out of quarter three. Quarter three is always kind of the peak volume quarter within the calendar year. So we expect that to be the same this year. However, historically, we see Q3 over Q2, roughly about 600,000 tonnes to 800,000 tonnes more quarter over quarter. And we would expect the same this year.

Ben，我很感謝這個問題。我先鋪陳一下，然後 Luciano 可以就 Fertilizantes 的 EBITDA 以及該如何看待它提供更多細節。先從第三季的量談起。第三季一向是曆年中出貨量的高峰季度。所以我們預期今年也會如此。不過，歷史上我們看到第三季相較第二季，季增大約60萬噸到80萬噸。我們預期今年也一樣。

But what's muting the full potential of what's historic is actually our production business being down. We are not making or making very little commodity fertilizers in Brazil, given the sulfur availability and affordability issue. And so that is what's driving kind of demand being down or supply to feed demand, however you want to look at it in Brazil. And Jenny addressed that being down, what, up to 20% -- 20%, 30% this year on phosphate.

但讓歷史水準的全部潛力被削弱的，其實是我們的生產業務下滑。由於硫磺供應的可得性與可負擔性問題，我們在巴西幾乎不生產或只生產很少的大宗肥料。因此，這就是導致巴西需求下滑——或你也可以說是供給不足以滿足需求——的原因。Jenny 也提到，今年磷肥下滑了，什麼，最高到20%——20%、30%。

So that is what will give you kind of to help figure out on volume. So better than quarter two. Typically, quarter two is up 600,000 tonnes to 800,000 tonnes. Obviously, our quarter two this year was down, but then it is constrained because we don't have our B2B production volumes to be able to sell. So with that, that already is going to handicap EBITDA. And then we're going to be more down than we were in quarter two. And Luciano can kind of talk about how to think about how the EBITDA puts and takes work with Fertilizantes.

所以這些能幫你理解量的部分。會比第二季好。通常第二季到第三季會增加60萬噸到80萬噸。顯然我們今年第二季是下滑的，但接著又受到限制，因為我們沒有 B2B 生產量可以拿來銷售。因此，這一點本身就會拖累 EBITDA。而且我們第三季會比第二季更低。Luciano 可以談談，Fertilizantes 的 EBITDA 加減項該如何理解。

Yes. I would say that the goal throughout these curtailments is to make, for example, the production business stand on its own, so be kind of a zero net contributor and how this is achieved, like the contribution margin of our animal feed sales plus a little bit of the sulfuric acid sales plus co-products should match the fixed costs and the turnaround costs.

是的。我會說，這些減產措施的目標，是讓例如生產業務能夠自給自足，也就是大致做到淨貢獻為零；達成方式是：我們動物飼料銷售的貢獻毛利，加上一點硫酸銷售，再加上副產品，應該要能覆蓋固定成本與歲修成本。

And we're actually kind of seeing Q3 even a little surplus because it's a strong quarter for coproducts as well. And a reminder, when we talk about coproducts, people usually associate, well, if I'm not producing, where are the coproducts?

而我們其實看到第三季甚至會有一點盈餘，因為第三季也是副產品的強勁季度。提醒一下，當我們談副產品時，大家通常會聯想到：嗯，如果我不生產，副產品從哪裡來？

About half of our revenue from coproducts comes from the sale of gypsum, which we actually have a very large stockpile. So to sell gypsum for the Brazilian farmers, we don't need actually to produce. So the sales are going to be there irregardless of curtailments, gypsum only, which is about half of the co-product sales. So this is the first bucket. So the margin we make in animal feed, sulfuric acid and coproducts should pay for all of the fixed costs and turnaround costs in the production business.

我們副產品收入大約有一半來自石膏的銷售，而我們其實有非常大量的庫存堆置。所以要把石膏賣給巴西農民，我們其實不需要生產。因此，無論是否減產，石膏（僅石膏）這部分的銷售都會存在；而石膏約占副產品銷售的一半。這是第一個桶（第一部分）。所以，我們在動物飼料、硫酸與副產品上賺到的毛利，應該要支付生產業務的所有固定成本與歲修成本。

And then the other bucket is the distribution. So Q3 is very strong for distribution. So -- and margins are not yet where we would like it to be, but they are slowly improving. And Q3, actually, we're going to start having some contribution from Biosciences in Brazil. We expect around $30 million of sales of Biosciences only in Brazil with a kind of a margin contribution margin of around 40%.

然後另一個部分是經銷（distribution）。所以第三季對經銷來說非常強勁。所以——利潤率還沒到我們希望的水準，但正在緩慢改善。而且第三季，實際上，我們會開始在巴西看到生物科學（Biosciences）的部分貢獻。我們預期僅在巴西的生物科學銷售額約為3,000萬美元，貢獻毛利率大約在40%左右。

And so you start seeing maybe it's not a lot, but it's the beginning, right? $12 million of contribution from Biosciences in Brazil only. So if you add the distribution margin plus Biosciences, on the one hand, you have SG&A on the other. And so there will be a surplus in Q3, and we hope that we can maintain a kind of surplus going forward so that Brazil could keep in positive territory. Again, it's going to be hard for the Q4 because we have a less prominent quarter as usual.

所以你開始看到，也許不算多，但這是個開始，對吧？僅巴西的生物科學就有1,200萬美元的貢獻。所以如果你把經銷毛利加上生物科學，一方面，另一邊則是SG&A（銷售、一般及行政費用）。因此第三季會有盈餘，我們希望未來也能維持某種程度的盈餘，讓巴西能持續保持在正向區間。再說一次，第四季會比較難，因為一如往常那是一個相對不那麼突出的季度。

But for Q3, we're confident that we're going to be positive, albeit as we signaled maybe the $60 million will not be achieved in Q3.

但就第三季而言，我們有信心會是正的，儘管如我們所提示的，第三季可能達不到6,000萬美元。

Now to your question about improving crop prices, that's actually some upside that maybe we're not baking in. We have seen recently, and Jenny can provide details over the last few weeks have actually returned to pretty normal buying patterns. And if that were to continue, we probably would have some upside potential in Brazil. Anything to add there, Jenny? I think I covered it. So thanks again, Ben.

至於你問到作物價格改善，這其實是一些我們可能尚未納入的上行空間。我們最近看到——Jenny可以補充細節——過去幾週實際上已回到相當正常的採購模式。如果這種情況持續下去，我們在巴西可能會有一些上行潛力。Jenny，你還要補充什麼嗎？我想我已經涵蓋了。所以再次謝謝你，Ben。

Matt DeYoe, Bank of America.

美國銀行（Bank of America）的Matt DeYoe。

I appreciate that there's a lot of uncertainty out there and just trying to get a sense, I guess, for the idle turnaround costs in the third quarter in Phosphates, right? It was $60 million in 2Q and the implied commentary was that it goes up. So I mean, order of magnitude, is $100 million the right number for the third quarter? Could it be $120 million? How do we frame that?

我理解外部有很多不確定性，我只是想掌握一下，我想是磷酸鹽（Phosphates）第三季的停工與檢修（idle turnaround）成本大概會是多少，對吧？第二季是6,000萬美元，而你們的評論暗示它會上升。所以就量級而言，第三季1億美元是正確的數字嗎？會不會是1.2億美元？我們該怎麼看待這件事？

And then guiding potash realizations to be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter, maybe like plus $10. Maybe a little bit soft of our expectations and what we've seen in the market. So is that just a function of higher freight rates driving lower netbacks to FOB. Or what else -- is that sell forward? What's going on there?

另外，你們指引鉀肥（potash）實現價格（realizations）季對季大致持平，可能大概是加10美元。這可能比我們的預期以及我們在市場上看到的稍微疲弱一些。所以這只是因為運費上升導致FOB淨回收（netbacks）下降嗎？還是還有其他因素——是提前售出（sell forward）嗎？這裡到底發生了什麼？

Let me take the back half of your question, and Luciano can talk a little bit about the idle turnaround. You're spot on with freight rates, particularly on the export side. So Canpotex is definitely seeing higher freight rate. So the netback impact is there. The other thing is in the mix.

我先回答你問題的後半段，Luciano可以談一下停工與檢修。你對運費的判斷非常到位，特別是在出口端。所以Canpotex確實看到更高的運費。因此淨回收的影響是存在的。另外一個因素是產品/通路組合（mix）。

So where we're seeing growth in Potash is through Canpotex. And so the contribution, it's a channel mix issue. There's more export in Q3 than what we have historically seen. We're not losing anything in North America. It's just more international growth through Canpotex that is at a lower netback and then being discounted even more because of those higher freight rates.

我們看到鉀肥成長主要是透過Canpotex。所以貢獻上，這是一個通路組合的問題。第三季出口比我們歷史上看到的更多。我們在北美沒有流失任何量。只是透過Canpotex的國際成長較多，而那部分的淨回收較低，並且因為運費更高而被進一步折減。

So I think that's probably what hopefully squares the circle or circles the square for you on why there might be a disconnect. Luciano, maybe over to you on turnaround idle.

所以我想這大概能幫你把這個看似不一致的地方解釋清楚。Luciano，停工與檢修的部分交給你。

So Matt, the $60 million in Q2 is basically half and half, half idle, half turnaround. And so yes, for Q3, that idle component, it's probably going to double, right? So it's another $30 million. But the turnaround component is going to half probably. So maybe we're talking about $15 million, let's just put a bracket $10 million to $20 million additional from Q3 to Q2.

Matt，第二季的6,000萬美元基本上各半：一半是停工（idle），一半是檢修（turnaround）。所以是的，到了第三季，那個停工的部分大概會翻倍，對吧？所以會再增加3,000萬美元。但檢修的部分大概會減半。所以可能是1,500萬美元；我們先給個區間，第三季相較第二季大概再增加1,000萬到2,000萬美元。

But in the fourth quarter, you're going to have an additional reduction in turnaround because you're not doing turnaround on something which is either, right? So you're going to probably go back to the -- with the [6] handle in the fourth quarter. So it's not $100 million, it's not $120 million. It's well below that.

但到了第四季，你會看到檢修再進一步下降，因為你不會對已經停下來的設備做檢修，對吧？所以第四季你大概會回到「6字頭」的水準。所以不是1億美元，也不是1.2億美元。會遠低於那個水準。

And maybe just to highlight on that. I mean, these plants, if you take Louisiana, it's now 100% down. They are basically being put in a frozen stasis. So they're not being utilized. The planned turnaround schedules will be delayed.

也許再強調一下。我的意思是，這些工廠，如果以路易斯安那為例，現在是100%停產。它們基本上被置於一種「凍結靜置」狀態。所以沒有在使用。原先規劃的檢修時程將會延後。

So CapEx that may be invested associated with a normal type turnaround is going to be deferred. That does not mean we're deferring CapEx for asset structural health. So as these assets are not running, we're still sticking to its running turnaround time schedule.

因此，原本與一般例行檢修相關、可能會投入的資本支出（CapEx）將會遞延。但這不代表我們會遞延用於資產結構健康（asset structural health）的資本支出。所以即使這些資產沒有運轉，我們仍會遵循其運轉時的檢修時間表。

But while they're down, we are taking advantage of both CapEx and turnaround costs that will be deferred until these things are back up and running and utilize that run time for turnaround. So it is, again, complicated, but this is -- we're looking very detailed at everything and taking advantage of everything we can, as we've talked about, the things we can control to wring costs out in a way that doesn't damage asset health for the long term.

但在它們停下來的期間，我們會把握機會，將部分資本支出與檢修成本遞延到這些設備重新開車並運轉後，再利用運轉時間來進行檢修。所以這確實——再次強調——很複雜，但我們正在非常細緻地檢視所有事項，並盡可能利用一切機會；如我們所說，針對我們能控制的事情，把成本擠出來，同時不損害資產長期健康。

By the way, we didn't have the opportunity, but the CapEx profile. So you remember, we started the year with $1.5 billion, then we got back to $1.25 billion and then now $1.2 billion. The pace at which you kind of slam the brakes matters here. So CapEx will still be in Q3 somehow around like $300 million, with a [3] handle, but then it will drop substantially in Q4. So it's another reason why Q4 should be a stronger quarter for cash flows just because that's the way you manage, right?

順帶一提，我們之前沒有機會談到資本支出輪廓。你還記得，我們年初是15億美元，之後回到12.5億美元，現在是12億美元。你踩煞車的速度在這裡很重要。所以第三季的資本支出仍會在某種程度上大約3億美元左右，是「3字頭」，但第四季會大幅下降。所以這也是為什麼第四季現金流應該會更強的另一個原因，因為管理方式就是如此，對吧？

You cannot just stop all of a sudden. So you have to manage through and then you're going to see a step change in CapEx down for Q4.

你不可能突然之間全部停止。所以你必須在過程中管理，然後你會在第四季看到資本支出明顯階梯式下降。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

Mizuho的Edlain Rodriguez。

Bruce, in terms of the affordability issue in phosphate, like how long can this go on? And how do you think it gets addressed? Is it crop prices moving up or phosphate prices moving down or combo? And what's your preference?

Bruce，就磷酸鹽的可負擔性（affordability）問題而言，這種情況還能持續多久？你認為會如何被解決？是作物價格上升、磷酸鹽價格下降，還是兩者兼具？你偏好哪一種？

Edlain, no, thanks. I always appreciate the question. Yes, it's impossible to know exactly. I think it's probably a combination of both. In what proportion, I don't know. I don't think that I have a preference to be quite honest, Edlain. I think in my mind, what's most certain is, as Jenny outlined, there has been up to 30 million tonnes this year of production that just won't happen, depending on how long this sulfur availability thing is prolonged. If it goes to the end of the year, the number can be up to 30 -- it could be the high end, 30 million tonnes based on our calculation. Already less phosphate applied last year, a significant reduction this year in Latin America and in the US, the agronomic science has not changed.

Edlain，不，謝謝。我一直很感謝這個問題。是的，確實不可能精確知道。我認為很可能是兩者的組合。至於比例是多少，我不知道。老實說，我不覺得我有什麼偏好，Edlain。我想在我心中，最確定的是，如同Jenny所概述的，今年最多可能有3,000萬噸的產量就是不會發生，取決於這個硫磺供應可得性的問題會延續多久。如果一路延續到年底，根據我們的計算，數字可能高達30——可能是高端，3,000萬噸。去年已經施用較少的磷肥，今年在拉丁美洲與美國也大幅減少，而農藝科學並沒有改變。

So this will have an impact on yields at some point and then layer into the risk of what does El Nino do globally. So I think ag commodity prices are set to continue to rise as more evidence as crop gets removed over the course of the next three months, four months, six months, which is going to provide tailwinds for farmer demand.

因此，這在某個時間點會對單產造成影響，並且再疊加上厄爾尼諾在全球會帶來什麼風險。所以我認為，隨著未來三個月、四個月、六個月期間有更多作物被移除（減產）的證據浮現，農產品大宗商品價格勢必會持續上升，這將為農民需求提供順風。

It won't take much for farmers to change the -- to feel differently about the narrative on affordability. If corn hits $5, north of $5, that is going to provide a lot of sentiment positivity. It's going to provide a lot of tailwinds. And the most -- the place that I would look first is in Brazil because the soil type just doesn't have the ability to bank nutrient value for mining it later as much as North America.

農民不需要太多就會改變——就會對「可負擔性」這個敘事產生不同感受。如果玉米漲到5美元、甚至高於5美元，這將帶來很多正向情緒。這會提供很大的順風。而我會最先關注的地方是巴西，因為那裡的土壤類型不像北美那樣，能夠把養分價值「存」起來，之後再透過開採（消耗）來使用。

But as Jenny said, in North America even, we've mined almost 2.7 million tonnes over two years of phosphate out of the crop removal from '25 and now '26 projection above what is average, and we aren't applying average nutrients to replenish that.

但如Jenny所說，即使在北美，我們在兩年內，因作物移除而從土壤中「開採」了將近270萬噸的磷酸鹽——相較於平均值，從'25到現在'26的預測都高於平均，而我們並沒有施用平均水準的養分來補回這些消耗。

So I think crop prices are going to rise. What happens with raw materials, your guess is as good as mine. But what we are in today is not sustainable. There will have to be a new economic equilibrium hit in order to not have yields on a long-term sustained basis, stay negatively impacted.

所以我認為作物價格會上升。至於原物料會怎麼走，你的猜測跟我的一樣準。但我們今天所處的狀態是不可持續的。必須達到一個新的經濟均衡，才能避免長期、持續性的單產受到負面影響。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

Kristen Owen，Oppenheimer。

I did want to ask two things here. First, there was a write-down in the period. Can you just articulate what that was? And then my real question just is on your inventory levels. You finished the quarter at about 125 days.

我確實想問兩件事。第一，本期有一筆減記。你能否說明那是什麼？然後我真正的問題是關於你們的庫存水位。你們在季度末大約是125天。

Can you just help us parse out how much of that is raw versus finished goods? And how we should think about that being sort of elevated levels versus elevated prices? Just provide a little bit more color on that inventory level, please?

你能否協助我們拆解一下，其中有多少是原材料、多少是成品？以及我們應該如何看待這是「水位偏高」還是「價格偏高」所造成的？請就這個庫存水位多提供一些說明，好嗎？

No, Kristen, thank you. The write-down was a capital project that we had looked pursuing in the past, which was purified phosphoric acid and going into battery cathode material. I think we had talked about that publicly two, three years ago. It became the point that we pretty much ruled out that ever being a possibility and took the write-down non-cash.

不，Kristen，謝謝你。那筆減記是我們過去曾考慮推進的一個資本專案，也就是純化磷酸並切入電池正極材料。我想我們在兩、三年前曾公開談過。後來我們基本上判定那不太可能再成為選項，因此做了非現金的減記。

On the inventory, Luciano, I'll turn it over to you, maybe you got some more color on what's driving --

關於庫存，Luciano，我把問題交給你，你或許能補充一些造成--

Yes. So Kristen, there's -- you probably looked into it. There's a footnote in our financial statements. I think it's footnote five, which gives the breakdown of inventories in the various categories. So raw materials have been on a trend up because of prices, of course.

好的。所以Kristen，這裡——你可能已經看過。我們的財務報表裡有一個附註。我想是附註五，裡面按不同類別拆分了存貨。所以原材料因為價格因素，當然一直呈上升趨勢。

But I would say they tend to go down now because even if you keep the same days of inventory, like you were running less facilities and especially in Brazil, where sulfur inventories are pretty much going to go down all the way to zero. The same is going to probably happen with work in progress as well. So you may remember past conference calls, we talked about an accumulation of rock inventories. And again, there was still a little bit of buildup in Q2 because, again, you stop the facilities and then you're still like processing rock and -- but structurally, these tend to go down a little bit as well.

但我會說，接下來它們往往會下降，因為即使你維持相同的庫存天數，像你們的裝置運轉得更少，尤其在巴西，硫磺庫存幾乎會一路降到零。在製品（WIP）也很可能會發生同樣情況。所以你可能記得在過去的電話會議中，我們談到磷礦石庫存的累積。而且在第二季仍有些許增加，因為你停掉裝置後，仍然像是在處理磷礦石並且——但從結構上看，這些也會稍微下降。

Finished goods, I would say that there's -- in terms of physical inventories, there's no different pattern for Phosphates or for Potash than we observed in the past. You remember, there was an uptick in finished good inventory for Phosphates in Q4 last year. We ended up with close to 1 million tonnes of finished goods, but now we're down to kind of 700,000 tonnes, 600,000 tonnes. This is more like a healthier level.

成品方面，我會說——就實體庫存而言，無論是磷酸鹽或鉀肥，都沒有出現與過去不同的模式。你記得去年第四季磷酸鹽成品庫存曾上升。我們最後接近100萬噸成品，但現在已降到大約70萬噸、60萬噸。這更像是較健康的水位。

If there's a rebound in demand, we might even go lower than that. MRO inventory, it's kind of stable, flat as well. So I'd say other than the traditional seasonality of Brazil, which will have the behavior I described earlier -- very quickly. I'd say from the physical perspective, the absolute trend for inventories is coming down. And of course, you layer on top of it the price effects.

如果需求反彈，我們甚至可能會比這更低。MRO（維修、修理與營運）庫存也相對穩定、持平。所以我會說，除了巴西傳統的季節性——會呈現我先前描述的行為、而且變化很快——之外，從實體角度看，庫存的絕對趨勢正在下降。當然，上面還疊加了價格效應。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

Lucas Beaumont，瑞銀（UBS）。

So I guess just want to get back to kind of the Phosphates volume outlook. So based on the current conditions, what you know today in terms of the pricing, input costs and sulfur and ammonia, if conditions kind of remain where they are now, what would you expect to do from a production footprint reduction standpoint as we go into the fourth quarter? Would you keep things the same in the US? Would you reduce them? Or would you be able to increase it further?

我想回到磷酸鹽銷量展望。以目前的狀況、以及你們今天所掌握的定價、投入成本、硫磺與氨的情況來看，如果條件大致維持現狀，進入第四季時，從縮減生產版圖的角度，你們預期會怎麼做？你們會讓美國維持不變嗎？會降低嗎？還是能夠進一步提高？

Yes. Lucas, I appreciate the question. Under your assumption, which I don't -- would say is not that disconnected from probably where we're assuming right now, production would stay the way it currently is. We would consume what we believe we have is advantaged sulfur to the competition.

是的。Lucas，謝謝你的問題。在你的假設下——我會說這跟我們目前的假設可能並沒有太脫節——產量會維持在目前的水準。我們會消耗我們認為相較競爭對手更具優勢的硫磺。

And we know there are enough active markets globally to be able to utilize that sulfur and constrain ourselves to that advantaged contract sulfur that we have in the active markets. And based on that, we kind of see that production volume -- listen, it may fluctuate 100,000 tonnes, 200,000 tonnes here or there, we'll see. But generally, in that ZIP code is probably a good assumption.

而且我們知道全球有足夠多的活躍市場可以利用這些硫磺，並且我們會把自己限制在我們在活躍市場中所擁有的、具優勢的合約硫磺之內。基於此，我們大致認為產量——聽著，可能會上下波動10萬噸、20萬噸之類，我們再看。但整體而言，大概落在那個區間應該是個不錯的假設。

Andrew Wong, RBC.

Andrew Wong，RBC。

Just have a couple here. When things do normalize and you like to get back to the regular operating rates, how quickly could that ramp up look like? Like could we -- let's say, the Strait opens up today, could you get back to regular operating rates by like September? And then my second question is on the sulfur contracts. $705 per long ton was pretty -- it was well below spot prices.

我這邊有兩個問題。當情況恢復正常、你們希望回到常規營運水準時，產能爬坡大概能有多快？例如我們—假設海峽今天就開放，你們能否在大約9月前回到正常營運水準？第二個問題是關於硫磺合約。每長噸705美元相當—明顯低於現貨價格。

Can you just kind of talk about how that came about? And let's say, if the Strait does remain closed into Q4, could you still sign another contract at the roughly similar level?

你能否談談這是如何達成的？另外，假設海峽持續關閉到第四季，你們是否仍能以大致相近的水準再簽一份合約？

Let me start, Andrew, with the latter part. I think it's worth talking about that we were able to create a separation on that settlement cost from what spot solid sulfur was. And I think that is a testament to the relationship that's very symbiotic that we have with the Gulf Coast producers here in the United States to be able to take their molten supply and give them a baseload that's very ratable and doesn't jeopardize their primary existence, which is to produce oil and gas, right? So that is a relationship that has worked in ways that favor us and in ways that favor them over the decades that we've had this advantaged relationship here in North America.

Andrew，我先從後半段開始回答。我認為值得一提的是，我們能夠把該結算成本與現貨固體硫磺價格做出區隔。我想這也證明了我們與美國墨西哥灣沿岸生產商之間非常互利共生的關係：我們能接收他們的熔融硫磺供應，並為他們提供非常穩定、可預測的基礎負荷，不會危及他們的主要生存根本—也就是生產油氣，對吧？因此，這段關係在過去數十年裡，讓我們在北美享有這種優勢合作，並以對我們有利、也對他們有利的方式運作。

So I can't speak to what we should expect. I think they appreciate, as we've appreciated when economics have been tough for them in the past that we are riding the edge on economics because we can't pass through that on the demand side because then we will run up against demand disruption. So we found this way to thread the needle. I think they appreciate that.

所以我無法具體說我們應該預期什麼。我想他們也理解—正如我們過去在他們經濟困難時所理解的一樣—我們在經濟上其實是走在邊緣，因為我們無法在需求端把成本完全轉嫁出去，否則就會面臨需求被破壞的風險。因此我們找到了一種兩全其美的做法。我認為他們也很欣賞這點。

They appreciate our relationship and our expectation is that, that continues to stay there. I can't guarantee what that is going to be, but I think we've proven in Q3 that we have that relationship, and we would expect to continue to see something there. How fast we can ramp back up? It's going to depend on -- well, in your scenario that magically things just return, which, by the way, they won't. It's going to take time to recover.

他們重視我們的合作關係，而我們的預期是這種關係會持續下去。我無法保證未來會是什麼樣子，但我認為我們在第三季已證明我們擁有這樣的關係，也預期未來仍會看到類似的結果。至於我們能多快把產量拉回來？這將取決於—嗯，在你的情境裡，好像一切突然就恢復正常，但順帶一提，事情不會那麼神奇。復原需要時間。

Even if the Strait's opened up tomorrow, there's damage in refineries that are producing sulfur, what's going on in Russia and Ukraine is independent of the Strait's opening up, what's happening with Kazakhstan restrictions, that has to change as well. I mean all of those things have to happen. But if magically if sulfur were to return, we can ramp up pretty quick.

即使海峽明天就開放，生產硫磺的煉油廠也有受損情況；俄羅斯與烏克蘭的狀況也不會因海峽開放而改變；哈薩克的限制也需要解除。我的意思是，這些事情都必須發生變化。但如果真的很神奇地硫磺供應回來了，我們可以很快把產量拉升。

As we talked about, we are making a priority to protect asset health and any of the decisions we're making about capital prioritization to do just that. Now granted, if things become protracted for even longer, that may add a little bit of time. But I'd say we're talking weeks, not months to get back to production.

如同我們所談到的，我們優先要保護資產健康，我們在資本配置優先順序上的任何決策也都是為了做到這一點。當然，如果情況拖得更久，可能會再多花一點時間。但我會說，我們談的是幾週，而不是幾個月，就能恢復生產。

David Symonds, BNP.

David Symonds，BNP。

It's just a follow-up on Jeff's question about the realized ammonia costs in Faustina. You talked about $610 per tonne to $620 per tonne realized ammonia cost in Q3. I just want to understand, does that include the internal buying of Faustina and the kind of advantaged supply there? And if it does, I would have thought Faustina would be quite a large portion of your ammonia supply at the guided production rates of phosphates. So could we see a big drop in the ammonia realized cost in Q4?

我想就Jeff關於Faustina實現的氨成本問題追問一下。你提到第三季實現的氨成本為每噸610到620美元。我想確認一下，這是否包含Faustina的內部採購以及那部分的供應優勢？如果包含的話，按你們指引的磷酸鹽產量來看，我原本以為Faustina應該會占你們氨供應相當大的比重。那麼第四季我們是否會看到實現的氨成本大幅下降？

It does include that, and it is -- yes. So it does include that. It's just based on the other contracts that we have settled and how that's going to flow through inventory. So a good chunk, the majority of our production is either internal gas-based or gas tied contracts. We do still have some spot that's in there.

有包含，而且是—是的。所以確實包含。這主要取決於我們其他已結算的合約，以及這些成本如何透過存貨反映出來。因此，我們產量中相當大的一部分、也就是大多數，來自內部以天然氣為基礎的供應，或與天然氣掛鉤的合約。我們仍然有一部分是現貨採購。

But the settlement prices for our strategic contracts that are tied to market negotiation on a monthly basis, that's all included in the -- in what Luciano was talking about on how that would impact on COGS. So that does include our Louisiana tonnes.

但我們那些策略性合約的結算價格—這些合約是每月依市場協商而定—都已包含在Luciano所談到的、將如何影響銷貨成本（COGS）的內容之中。所以這也包含我們路易斯安那的噸數。

This will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回管理層作結語。請開始。

To conclude our call, I'd like to restate our key points. While sulfur affordability and availability are challenging for everyone in the phosphate industry, we know that the crisis will come to an end. We're taking all the necessary actions to weather the storm, cutting capital and other costs, idling facilities where necessary, redeploying capital in pursuit of higher returns and further strengthening our balance sheet, all while preserving our ability to thrive when conditions improve.

在結束本次電話會議前，我想重申我們的重點。雖然硫磺的可負擔性與可取得性對整個磷酸鹽產業而言都很具挑戰，但我們知道這場危機終將結束。我們正採取一切必要行動來度過難關：削減資本支出與其他成本、在必要時讓設施停工、重新部署資本以追求更高報酬並進一步強化資產負債表，同時保留在環境改善時蓬勃發展的能力。

So to be clear, Mosaic remains in an advantageous position with access to US sulfur and open shipping channels in the Americas. In fact, our raw material advantage moves us down the cost curve at times of stress like we're feeling right now.

因此要說清楚的是，Mosaic仍處於有利位置，能取得美國硫磺供應，且在美洲擁有開放的航運通道。事實上，在像我們目前感受到的這種壓力時期，我們的原料優勢會讓我們在成本曲線上處於更有利的位置。

At the same time, we're pushing to grow with incremental tonnes in potash, our very promising Mosaic Biosciences business and potential for new minerals extraction. Put simply, this is a tough time, but Mosaic is strong and resilient and better markets are ahead.

同時，我們也在推動成長：透過鉀肥的增量噸數、我們非常有前景的Mosaic Biosciences業務，以及新礦物開採的潛力。簡而言之，這是一段艱難時期，但Mosaic強健且具韌性，更好的市場就在前方。

So thank you and have a great and safe day.

因此，謝謝大家，祝各位今天愉快且平安。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。