美盛公司 (MOS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is being recorded.

大家早安，歡迎參加 Mosaic 公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）也請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the floor over to Jason Tremblay. Please go ahead.

我現在想請傑森特倫布萊發言。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to our third-quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by a fireside chat and then open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial, will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。總裁兼執行長 Bruce Bodine 將發表開場評論，隨後進行爐邊談話，然後進行開放式問答。克林特‧弗里蘭，執行副總裁兼財務長；商務執行副總裁王珍妮也將回答您的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results, they are beyond management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results.

我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。這些報表包括但不限於有關未來財務和經營業績的報表，它們超出了截至目前管理層的信念和預期，並受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。實際結果可能與預期結果有重大差異。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published today, and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異的因素包含在我們今天發布的新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。我們也將提出某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的新聞稿和業績數據還包含有關這些非公認會計準則衡量標準的重要資訊。

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce.

現在，我想把電話轉給布魯斯。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call.

早安.感謝您加入我們的通話。

I would like to start by acknowledging the great work done by so many of Mosaic's people to help us prepare for and recover from Hurricanes Francine, Helene, and Milton. I'm especially pleased that we made it through the storms with no safety incidents, no significant environmental events, and no material physical damage.

首先，我要感謝 Mosaic 的許多員工為幫助我們為颶風弗朗辛、海倫和米爾頓做好準備並從中恢復所做的偉大工作。我特別高興的是，我們安然度過了這場風暴，沒有發生任何安全事故，沒有發生重大環境事件，也沒有發生任何物質損壞。

Even as most of our people in Louisiana and Central Florida were dealing with storm impacts at home, they came together to ensure we could get back up and running as quickly as possible after the storms. Because of their dedication, our Florida operations were back at full operating rates just two weeks after Milton, with some locations returning to normal within days. I'm extremely grateful to the team.

儘管我們路易斯安那州和佛羅裡達州中部的大多數人都在家中應對風暴的影響，但他們還是齊心協力，確保我們能夠在風暴過後儘快恢復正常運作。由於他們的奉獻精神，我們佛羅裡達州的業務在米爾頓事件發生後僅兩週就恢復了滿載運轉，一些地點在幾天內就恢復了正常。我非常感謝團隊。

Before we get into our results, I also want to address our announcement this morning that Clint Freeland plans to retire as Mosaic's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at the end of this year. During his time with Mosaic, Clint has been an outstanding CFO for the company. Mosaic's financial profile and capital allocation program are much stronger than they were when Clint arrived six years ago.

在我們公佈業績之前，我還想談談我們今天早上宣布的克林特·弗里蘭 (Clint Freeland) 計劃於今年年底退休擔任 Mosaic 執行副總裁兼首席財務官的消息。在 Mosaic 任職期間，克林特一直是該公司出色的財務長。馬賽克的財務狀況和資本配置計劃比克林特六年前到來時要強得多。

I want to extend my sincere thanks for his leadership, and we wish him all the best in his retirement. As part of this planned transition, Luciano Siani Pires will join the Company as CFO Designate on November 18. Luciano was previously the CFO at Vale and later served as the Company's EVP of Strategy and Business Transformation.

我要對他的領導表示誠摯的感謝，並祝他退休後一切順利。作為計劃過渡的一部分，Luciano Siani Pires 將於 11 月 18 日加入公司，擔任候任財務長。盧西亞諾先前曾擔任淡水河谷首席財務官，後來擔任該公司策略和業務轉型執行副總裁。

Luciano also served on Mosaic's Board of Directors following the Vale Fertilizantes acquisition in 2018, so we know him quite well. We look forward to welcoming him to Mosaic, and we're confident that he will be a worthy successor. Luciano assumes the role of CFO on January 1, 2025, and Clint will remain a senior advisor until July 1, 2025.

Luciano 也在 2018 年收購 Vale Fertilizantes 後擔任 Mosaic 董事會成員，因此我們對他非常了解。我們期待歡迎他加入 Mosaic，並且我們相信他將成為當之無愧的繼任者。Luciano 於 2025 年 1 月 1 日就任財務官，Clint 將擔任高級顧問至 2025 年 7 月 1 日。

On to our third quarter results. The storms were part of a challenging third quarter for us. We also faced electrical issues at our Esterhazy and Colonsay potash mines that affected our production levels. All those challenges are now behind us.

關於我們第三季的業績。對我們來說，風暴是充滿挑戰的第三季的一部分。我們的 Esterhazy 和 Colonsay 鉀礦也面臨電力問題，影響了我們的生產水準。所有這些挑戰現在都已成為過去。

For the third quarter, Mosaic generated $2.8 billion of revenue, resulting in net income of $122 million and adjusted EBITDA of $448 million. The lower adjusted EBITA was driven by the aforementioned challenges, lower potash prices, and a delayed agriculture recovery in Brazil, partially offset by ongoing strength in phosphate stripping margin. That said, we have continued to focus and execute on the things that are within our control. And these actions and initiatives are positioning us to benefit from the improving ag and fertilizer markets.

第三季度，Mosaic 營收為 28 億美元，淨利潤為 1.22 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 4.48 億美元。調整後 EBITA 較低的原因是上述挑戰、鉀肥價格下跌以及巴西農業復甦延遲，但磷酸鹽剝離利潤的持續強勁部分抵消了這一影響。也就是說，我們繼續關注並執行我們控制範圍內的事情。這些行動和舉措使我們能夠從不斷改善的農業和化肥市場中受益。

We expect to achieve our targeted annualized phosphate production run rate of 7.8 million to 8.2 million tonnes by year end, once the ongoing turnaround activities are completed later this month. We're making good progress on our cost management front and on track to achieve our $150 million annual run rate cost savings target by the end of 2025. We're on track to achieve our targeted $200 million reduction in CapEx this year.

一旦本月稍後正在進行的周轉活動完成，我們預計到年底，磷酸鹽年產量將達到 780 萬噸至 820 萬噸的目標。我們在成本管理方面取得了良好進展，並預計在 2025 年底前實現每年運行成本節省 1.5 億美元的目標。我們預計將實現今年資本支出削減 2 億美元的目標。

Mosaic biosciences' growth is accelerating. In fact, our biological products are now being used on 9 million acres in key markets around the world this year. Due to our extensive market access and the strength of our brand, the biosciences' operating model is highly leverageable and positioned for long-term growth, which is powered by new product launches using our internal R&D capabilities as well as leveraging external partnerships. Mosaic biosciences is largely self-funding and does not require significant new capital to fuel its growth.

馬賽克生物科學公司的成長正在加速。事實上，今年我們的生物產品已在全球主要市場的 900 萬英畝土地上使用。由於我們廣泛的市場准入和我們的品牌實力，生物科學的運營模式具有很高的槓桿作用，並為長期增長做好了準備，這得益於我們利用內部研發能力推出新產品以及利用外部合作夥伴關係。馬賽克生物科學公司主要是自籌資金，不需要大量新資本來推動其成長。

Capital allocation remains a key focus for us. We're continuing to invest in our strengths. This year, we completed the compaction project at our low-cost Esterhazy mine and the micro-essentials conversion project at Riverview. And next year, we will complete the hydrofloat project at Esterhazy and the Palmeirante blend plant in Brazil.

資本配置仍然是我們的重點關注點。我們將繼續投資我們的優勢。今年，我們完成了低成本 Esterhazy 礦的壓實項目和 Riverview 的微必需品轉換項目。明年，我們將完成位於巴西埃斯特哈齊 (Esterhazy) 和帕爾梅蘭特 (Palmeirante) 混合工廠的水力浮法項目。

We're also focused on capital reallocation for other assets in our portfolio such as the conversion of our MWSPC joint venture into modern shares, which are worth $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion at today's share price and the strategic review of our Carlsbad, New Mexico, potash mine.

我們也專注於投資組合中其他資產的資本重新分配，例如將我們的MWSPC 合資企業轉換為現代股票（按今天的股價計算，其價值為15 億至16 億美元），以及對我們新墨西哥州卡爾斯巴德的策略審查，鉀礦。

During the first nine months of the year, we returned $415 million to shareholders, including $210 million of share repurchases.

今年前 9 個月，我們向股東返還 4.15 億美元，其中包括 2.1 億美元的股票回購。

Now let's spend a few moments to discuss the state of the market and outlook. Corn and soybean prices have improved from their August lows, while other commodity crops including palm oil, sugar, and coffee are quite strong. In North America, farmers are enjoying solid yields that offset the impact of strained commodity prices and an early harvest allowing more opportunity to complete fall field work, which is good news for the near-term fertilizer demand outlook.

現在讓我們花一些時間討論市場狀況和前景。玉米和大豆價格已從 8 月低點回升，而棕櫚油、糖和咖啡等其他商品作物則相當強勁。在北美，農民正在享受穩定的產量，抵消了大宗商品價格緊張的影響，而且早期收穫為完成秋季田間工作提供了更多機會，這對近期化肥需求前景來說是個好消息。

In Brazil, barter ratios are healthy for corn and soybeans. In fact, the corn barter ratio is improving, an increasingly constructive setup for the safrinha crop in the coming months. We have also seen a continued uptick in Brazilian corn used for ethanol production, which has provided further corn price support there.

在巴西，玉米和大豆的以物易物比率是健康的。事實上，玉米易貨比率正在改善，這對未來幾個月的 safrinha 作物來說越來越具有建設性。我們也看到用於乙醇生產的巴西玉米產量持續增加，這為那裡的玉米價格提供了進一步的支撐。

Over the longer term, biofuels remain an attractive driver for grain and oilseed demand far beyond current levels, deporting a highly constructive picture of long-term egg fundamentals. The government in Indonesia reiterated that it would be moving forward with a B40 biodiesel program starting in January. In India, the latest ethanol mandate could lead to India becoming a net importer of corn.

從長遠來看，生物燃料仍然是穀物和油籽需求的一個有吸引力的驅動力，遠遠超出目前的水平，從而呈現出雞蛋長期基本面的高度建設性前景。印尼政府重申，將從 1 月開始推進 B40 生物柴油計畫。在印度，最新的乙醇指令可能導致印度成為玉米淨進口國。

In Brazil, the approval of the new biofuel policy calls for a gradual increase in the mixture of soybean biodiesel and diesel fuel and changes in the ethanol content in gasoline and sustainable aviation fuel for airplanes.

在巴西，新生物燃料政策的批准要求逐步增加大豆生物柴油和柴油的混合物，並改變汽油和飛機可持續航空燃料中的乙醇含量。

Fertilizer demand is running high around the world this year as nutrients remain affordable and growers are catching up after recent years of under application. Large crops and solid yields in many regions this year are drawing nutrients from the soil, with removal particularly pronounced in North America with an additional 4% to 5% compared to last year. So we expect demand will remain solid in 2025 as nutrients are replenished.

今年世界各地的化肥需求不斷增長，因為肥料的價格仍然可以負擔得起，而且種植者在經歷了近年來施用不足的情況後正在迎頭趕上。今年許多地區的大作物和固體產量正在從土壤中吸收養分，其中北美的去除量尤其明顯，與去年相比增加了 4% 至 5%。因此，隨著營養物質得到補充，我們預計 2025 年需求將保持穩定。

The potash market remains relatively balanced. We think potash prices have hit bottom as we've seen resistance to low offers in key markets and prices have begun to trend higher.

鉀肥市場保持相對平衡。我們認為鉀肥價格已觸底，因為我們看到主要市場對低價報價的抵制，價格已開始走高。

We continue to expect near record global shipments for 2024 and record-breaking shipments in 2025 driven by broad-based demand recovery, particularly in Southeast Asia where palm oil economics are solid. For the phosphate market, stripping margins are expected to remain elevated. Prices remain strong, driven by persisting global supply constraints and solid demand for fertilizer, fuel, and industrial uses.

我們繼續預計，在廣泛的需求復甦的推動下，2024 年全球出貨量將接近創紀錄，2025 年出貨量將破紀錄，特別是在棕櫚油經濟強勁的東南亞。對於磷酸鹽市場，剝離利潤預計將保持在較高水準。由於持續的全球供應限制以及對化肥、燃料和工業用途的強勁需求，價格仍然堅挺。

China has continued to restrict phosphate exports. And we expect total Chinese exports to be around 7 million tonnes for 2024, down from 7.9 million tonnes last year and about 11 million tonnes at their recent peak. Domestic phosphoric acid production is increasingly consumed by industrial uses, resulting in reduced availability for production of phosphate fertilizers. This trend will likely continue well into the future.

中國繼續限制磷酸鹽出口。我們預計 2024 年中國出口總量約為 700 萬噸，低於去年的 790 萬噸，近期高峰約 1,100 萬噸。國內磷酸生產越來越多地被工業用途消耗，導致磷肥生產的供應量減少。這種趨勢很可能會持續到未來。

In addition, because of an unfavorable government subsidy environment, Indian phosphate demand is going unmet, leaving farmers short of a critical nutrient and setting up strong demand for 2025 assuming an improvement in importer economics.

此外，由於不利的政府補貼環境，印度磷酸鹽需求無法滿足，導致農民缺乏關鍵營養素，假設進口商經濟狀況改善，到 2025 年將產生強勁需求。

Now I'll move on to our segment results. The potash segment generated a just a EBTIDA of $180 million for the quarter compared with $267 million a year ago, driven by lower prices and approximately 250,000 tonnes of lost production due to the electrical issues at Esterhazy and Colonsay and were further impacted by the broad Canadian rail strike.

現在我將繼續討論我們的細分結果。鉀肥業務本季的 EBTIDA 僅為 1.8 億美元，而去年同期為 2.67 億美元，原因是價格下跌以及 Esterhazy 和 Colonsay 電力問題造成約 25 萬噸產量損失，並受到加拿大廣泛的影響。

These issues are now fully resolved. For the fourth quarter, we expect potash sales volumes in the range of 2.2 million to 2.4 million tonnes and prices in the range of $200 to $220 per tonne. Note that this outlook includes limited impact from the labor issues at the ports of Vancouver and Montreal.

這些問題現已徹底解決。我們預計第四季鉀肥銷量將在 220 萬至 240 萬噸之間，價格將在每噸 200 至 220 美元之間。請注意，這一前景包括溫哥華和蒙特利爾港口勞工問題的有限影響。

Canpotex has contingency plans to mitigate the impacts from the strike as much as possible by diverting product flows via other ports. However, the longer the strike goes on, the higher the potential for volume impacts, given the significance of the terminal to the Canpotex network.

Canpotex 制定了應急計劃，透過其他港口轉移產品流，盡可能減輕罷工的影響。然而，考慮到碼頭對 Canpotex 網路的重要性，罷工持續的時間越長，對數量影響的可能性就越大。

Our phosphate segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $265 million for the quarter compared with $201 million a year ago. The improved results are due to a combination of solid pre-hurricane production levels and strong stripping margins.

我們的磷酸鹽部門本季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.65 億美元，去年同期為 2.01 億美元。業績的改善得益於颶風前穩定的生產水準和強勁的剝離利潤。

Our sales volume came in at 1.5 million tonnes in the third quarter, driven by lower production volumes and shipping delays caused by weather events and related port closures. Our realized stripping margins remain strong, in part because of our advantageous ammonia economics. We produce about a third of what we consume. And we have a reliable supply of ammonia and sulfur from our partners.

由於天氣事件和相關港口關閉導致產量下降和運輸延誤，第三季我們的銷售量為 150 萬噸。我們實現的汽提利潤依然強勁，部分原因在於我們具有優勢的氨經濟性。我們生產的產品約占我們消費量的三分之一。我們從合作夥伴處獲得了可靠的氨和硫供應。

We have executed two new ammonia supply offtake agreements with an additional one nearing completion to meet our needs in 2025 and beyond. Our balanced raw material sourcing approach reduces our risk exposure in varying market conditions and sustains our strategic advantage.

我們已經執行了兩項新的氨供應承購協議，另外一項即將完成，以滿足我們 2025 年及以後的需求。我們平衡的原料採購方法降低了我們在不同市場條件下的風險敞口，並維持了我們的策略優勢。

Our phosphate conversion cash cost per tonne was largely unchanged from the second quarter. As we continue to ramp up production to the target run rate, we expect to achieve a $20 to $30 per tonne reduction in conversion costs from the high watermark at the end of 2023. Hurricane Milton resulted in a production loss of about 250,000 tonne, which will be reflected in our fourth quarter-volumes. For the fourth quarter, we expect phosphate sales volumes in the range of 1.6 million to 1.8 million tonne and prices in the range of $570 to $590 per tonne.

我們的每噸磷酸鹽轉換現金成本與第二季基本持平。隨著我們繼續將產量提高到目標運行率，我們預計到 2023 年底，轉換成本將比高水位線每噸降低 20 至 30 美元。米爾頓颶風導致產量損失約 25 萬噸，這將反映在我們第四季的產量中。我們預計第四季磷酸鹽銷量將在 160 萬噸至 180 萬噸之間，價格將在每噸 570 美元至 590 美元之間。

Mosaic Fertilizantes has generated $83 million in adjusted EBITDA compared with $147 million a year ago. EBITDA was lower due to $32 million in bad debt reserves we booked in SG&A and $20 million of legal reserves. The bad debt reserve was a result of the Brazilian customers bankruptcy filing. We expect to recover the majority of this amount through an insurance claim which will be recorded in the quarter it is received.

Mosaic Fertilizantes 調整後 EBITDA 為 8,300 萬美元，而一年前為 1.47 億美元。EBITDA 較低，是因為我們在 SG&A 中記入了 3200 萬美元的壞帳準備金和 2000 萬美元的法定準備金。壞帳準備是巴西客戶申請破產的結果。我們預計透過保險索賠收回大部分金額，該索賠將在收到的季度記錄。

All in all, we're back on track. Our operations are restored to full capacity in all geographies and we're optimistic as we look ahead to 2025. We expect constructive agriculture and fertilizer market fundamentals. And we believe that we will produce at levels that will allow us to meet robust demand from our customers around the world and generate good financial performance.

總而言之，我們又回到了正軌。我們在所有地區的營運均已恢復滿載，我們對 2025 年充滿樂觀。我們預期農業和化肥市場基本面將具有建設性。我們相信，我們的生產水準將使我們能夠滿足世界各地客戶的強勁需求並產生良好的財務表現。

Our strategy of refining our portfolio while pursuing exciting opportunities in Mosaic Biosciences will deliver meaningful shareholder value.

我們在完善投資組合的同時尋求 Mosaic Biosciences 令人興奮的機會的策略將帶來有意義的股東價值。

Thanks, Bruce.

謝謝，布魯斯。

Before we move on to the live Q&A as we have done in past quarters, we would like to address some of the most common investor questions that we have received throughout the quarter.

在我們像過去幾季一樣進行現場問答之前，我們想解決整個季度收到的一些最常見的投資者問題。

First, what is the current state of agriculture and fertilizer markets? And what is your outlook for next year?

首先，農業和化肥市場現況如何？您對明年有何展望？

Thanks, Jason. Ag fundamentals are solid, and fertilizers are affordable, which bodes well for fertilizer demand. significant changes to phosphate supply will keep the market tight into next year and the potash market is balanced.

謝謝，傑森。農業基本面穩固，化肥價格實惠，對化肥需求來說是個好兆頭。磷酸鹽供應的重大變化將使市場在明年保持緊張，鉀肥市場保持平衡。

Now, let me ask Jenny to provide you with her view.

現在，讓我請珍妮向您提供她的觀點。

Thank you, Bruce. Overall, ag fundamentals remain strong for many crops. We continue to remind investors that only third of phosphate and potash consumption goes to corn, soybean. Prices for other ag commodities, especially palm oil, sugar, coffee continues to be very attractive which supports significant demand of fertilizer growth in this year.

謝謝你，布魯斯。總體而言，許多作物的農業基本面仍然強勁。我們繼續提醒投資者，只有三分之一的磷酸鹽和鉀肥消費用於玉米、大豆。其他農業商品，特別是棕櫚油、糖、咖啡的價格仍然非常有吸引力，支撐了今年化肥需求的大幅成長。

For corn soybean, fundamentals are improving. In Brazil, domestic prices of corn, soyabean are actually traded at a premium over international future prices. This is due to the reais devaluation and also the growth of new demand i.e. bioethanol. As of last Friday, the sales of corn, soybean have come back to the same pace of last year, so as the first item purchases, both safrinha corn and the summer crop.

對於玉米大豆來說，基本面正在改善。在巴西，玉米、大豆的國內價格實際上高於國際期貨價格。這是由於雷亞爾貶值以及新需求（即生物乙醇）的成長。截至上週五，玉米、大豆的銷售已恢復至去年同期水平，因此作為第一批採購的商品，包括薩夫林哈玉米和夏季作物。

Speaking about biofuel, I'd like to highlight another dynamic that will influence the market both in near term and in long term, which is increasing demand to corn soybean for biofuel and bioethanol. In Brazil, the recent approved government fuel bill suggests biodiesel and bioethanol blending rate to increase by 5%. The increases of the blending rate implies significant increases of new demand for corn and soybean. Our estimation that would imply to 4 million tonnes of MPK fertilizer demand, if the rates are going to be realized by 2032.

談到生物燃料，我想強調另一個將在短期和長期影響市場的動態，即生物燃料和生物乙醇對玉米大豆的需求不斷增加。在巴西，最近批准的政府燃料法案建議將生物柴油和生物乙醇的混合率提高 5%。配比的提高意味著對玉米和大豆的新需求顯著增加。我們估計，如果到 2032 年實現這一目標，MPK 化肥需求將達到 400 萬噸。

In India, the country has shifted to a net corn input country this year as the government's corn ethanol investment plans to push use of corn for ethanol production, in addition to sugar cane and rice. And this is even before they hit their E20 goal. And the Indian government has a target to get to E25 by 2030.

在印度，該國今年已轉變為玉米淨輸入國，因為政府的玉米乙醇投資計畫除了甘蔗和大米之外，還計劃推動使用玉米來生產乙醇。這甚至是在他們實現 E20 目標之前。印度政府的目標是到 2030 年達到 E25。

Now let me move over to phosphate and potash market. Phosphate markets are tight this year and expected to stay constructive as we get into 2025 and beyond. Overall demand in this year are generally at par at 2023 with supply constraints holding back demand growth this year. India monsoon and the grower economics have driven demand outpaced supply. We see reduced shipment in 2024 due to unfavorable importer economics which is related to the government subsidy program. This is setting up a pent-up demand for 2025.

現在讓我轉向磷酸鹽和鉀肥市場。今年磷酸鹽市場供應緊張，預計進入 2025 年及以後仍將保持建設性。今年的整體需求總體與 2023 年持平，但供應限制阻礙了今年的需求成長。印度季風和種植者經濟推動需求超過供應。由於與政府補貼計畫相關的進口商經濟不利，我們預計 2024 年出貨量將減少。這為 2025 年創造了被壓抑的需求。

In North America, we are expecting a large crop. With the yield increase, the nutrient removal could be up to 4% to 5% from the soil compared to 2023. These nutrients must be replenished while growers have been cautious as the headwind of corn, soybean prices, the big yield, and early harvest improved the sentiment. We've been hearing from our customers that they were surprised by growers' appetite to phosphate.

在北美，我們預計會有大豐收。隨著產量的增加，與 2023 年相比，土壤養分去除量可能高達 4% 至 5%。這些營養素必須補充，而種植者一直保持謹慎，因為玉米、大豆價格的逆風、高產量和提前收穫改善了情緒。我們從客戶那裡得知，種植者對磷酸鹽的需求讓他們感到驚訝。

In Brazil, phosphate inventories are very tight. The grower economics and barter ratio are improving. We expect Brazil fertilizer demand to continue to expand in 2025.

在巴西，磷酸鹽庫存非常緊張。種植者的經濟效益和以物易物比率正在改善。我們預計2025年巴西化肥需求將持續擴大。

Lastly, on the supply side, we are seeing limited new supply is coming in in 2024. China exports are limited by their very strong domestic demand both in fertilizers and industrial use. Up to end of Q3, the production of LIP for electrical vehicles and the stationary batteries increased by 51% to 1.8 million tonne.

最後，在供應方面，我們看到 2024 年新增供應有限。中國的出口受到化肥和工業用途非常強勁的國內需求的限制。截至第三季末，電動車和固定電池用LIP產量增加51%至180萬噸。

The dynamic of competition between ag use and industrial use have tightened the availability of P205. In fact, China has been stepping up to import phosphate rock in order to meet the demand. The dynamic is expected to continue next year and support very tight phosphate market.

農業用途和工業用途之間的競爭加劇了 P205 的供應。事實上，中國一直在加緊進口磷礦以滿足需求。預計這種動態明年將持續，並支撐非常緊張的磷酸鹽市場。

For potash, we've seen very broad base of demand recovery around the globe, especially in Southeast Asian market. The elevated palm oil price and the constructive rice prices have really supported the demand recovery of potash. Year-to-date input growth in Malaysia, Indonesia was up by 57% and we are seeing a similar level for other countries in Southeast Asian region.

對於鉀肥，我們看到全球範圍內需求復甦的基礎非常廣泛，特別是在東南亞市場。棕櫚油價格上漲和米價格上漲確實支撐了鉀肥需求的復甦。年初至今，馬來西亞、印尼的投入成長了 57%，東南亞地區其他國家也出現了類似的水準。

We expect the global shipment of potash this year will be rebounded to the record year as we saw in 2021. On supply side, supply from Russia and Belorussia have largely returned to the historical level or pre-war level. Globally, we see the potash market as balanced with low price now prevailing to spur further demand growth in 2025.

我們預計今年全球鉀肥出貨量將反彈至創紀錄的年份，正如我們在 2021 年所看到的。供給方面，俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的供給已基本恢復到歷史水準或戰前水準。在全球範圍內，我們認為鉀肥市場處於平衡狀態，目前價格較低，將刺激 2025 年需求進一步成長。

Next question is on phosphate production levels. Assuming you achieve your target run rate in the fourth quarter, how should we think about production volumes moving forward?

下一個問題是關於磷酸鹽的生產水準。假設您在第四季度實現了目標運行率，我們應該如何考慮未來的產量？

We do expect to achieve the target run rate by the end of the quarter. Our turnaround schedule will be complete in the next couple of weeks, which will set us up for hitting the target. Our phosphate production level will be sustainable once we achieve the target. But please note that it will continue to vary on a quarter-by-quarter basis depending on turnaround scope and schedule.

我們確實預計在本季末實現目標運行率。我們的周轉計畫將在接下來的幾週內完成，這將為我們實現目標做好準備。一旦實現目標，我們的磷酸鹽生產水準將是可持續的。但請注意，它將根據週轉範圍和時間表繼續按季度變化。

For example, we have some turnaround activities scheduled for the first quarter next year, which will set us up well to produce at full rates for North American spring demand. This will result in lower than run rate production for the first quarter which we expect to make up during the balance of the year.

例如，我們計劃在明年第一季進行一些週轉活動，這將使我們能夠充分滿足北美春季需求的生產。這將導致第一季的產量低於運行率，我們預計將在今年剩餘時間內彌補這一情況。

One other factor that affects the production volumes quarter to quarter is product mix. Our teams are continually monitoring the markets and working to optimize product mix to maximize profitability. Each of our products requires a different amount of P205. So the product makes decisions will dictate the finished product production rates and where we land within the target range each quarter.

影響季度產量的另一個因素是產品結構。我們的團隊不斷監控市場並努力優化產品組合以最大限度地提高獲利能力。我們的每種產品都需要不同量的 P205。因此，產品決策將決定成品生產力以及我們每季在目標範圍內的情況。

Our next question is related to the credit situation in Brazil. You recorded $32 million of bad debt in the quarter. What is your exposure to future credit losses?

我們的下一個問題與巴西的信貸狀況有關。本季您記錄了 3,200 萬美元的壞帳。您未來面臨的信用損失有多大？

We have limited risk to further credit losses. While the market conditions remain challenging, not all industry participants are facing the same credit issues. In fact, significant portion of our customers which are grain traders and co-ops are in good financial condition.

我們進一步信用損失的風險有限。儘管市場狀況仍充滿挑戰，但並非所有行業參與者都面臨相同的信貸問題。事實上，我們的大部分客戶（穀物貿易商和合作社）財務狀況良好。

During the onset of the credit crisis, we made a concerted effort to reduce our exposure to the retailers that are most impacted by credit problems. As we move into the safrinha and [saffer] seasons next year, we have employed additional risk mitigation measures by requiring prepayments from our customers and continue to ensure sales contract integrity to prevent losses.

在信貸危機爆發期間，我們齊心協力減少對受信貸問題影響最嚴重的零售商的風險敞口。隨著明年進入 safrinha 和[更安全]季節，我們採取了額外的風險緩解措施，要求客戶預付款，並繼續確保銷售合約的完整性以防止損失。

In the event that credit losses are incurred, we use credit insurance programs to mitigate them. We believe our prudent risk approach will continue to reduce our exposure to future losses.

如果發生信用損失，我們使用信用保險計劃來減輕損失。我們相信，我們審慎的風險策略將繼續減少我們未來損失的風險。

Thanks, Bruce. With that, we'll now move on to the open question-and-answer session. Operator, please open the lines for follow up questions.

謝謝，布魯斯。至此，我們現在將進入公開問答環節。接線員，請開通後續問題線路。

(Operator Instructions) Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Richard Garchitorena，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. And congratulations, Clint, on your retirement. Yes. So I just wanted to first touch on the phosphate business. Looks like you put strong margins up, despite the challenging weather events. I was wondering, given your -- also, on track on the cost savings of $150 million, what would your costs have looked like, I guess, if you didn't have the temporary shutdowns? And was there a cost impact from the shutdown during the quarter?

你好，謝謝。早安.恭喜你，克林特，退休了。是的。所以我想先談談磷酸鹽業務。儘管天氣狀況充滿挑戰，但看起來你們的利潤仍然很高。我想知道，考慮到您也有望節省 1.5 億美元的成本，我猜，如果沒有臨時關閉，您的成本會是多少？本季的停工是否會對成本產生影響？

Hey, Richard. This is Bruce. Thanks for the question. Yeah, we're pretty proud of the margins. It does show to your point that the strength of our cost reduction program and how much improvement in production really has on our fixed cost absorption.

嘿，理查德。這是布魯斯。謝謝你的提問。是的，我們對利潤率感到非常自豪。它確實向您表明了我們的成本削減計劃的力度以及生產的改進程度確實對我們的固定成本吸收產生了影響。

Even though we did have, to your point, impacts from the various hurricanes in Louisiana and a little bit of Helene at the end of third quarter and Florida mostly on shipping ability out of the ports, we've kind of had production flat versus quarter two, which was about 100,000, 110,000 tonne improved over kind of historic.

就您而言，儘管我們確實受到了路易斯安那州的各種颶風以及第三季度末海倫和佛羅裡達州的一些颶風的影響，主要影響了港口的運輸能力，但我們的產量與季度持平兩個，大約是10萬噸，比歷史水準增加了11萬噸。

So I believe we're seeing that coming through. I know it's hard when you have these interruptions with storms. We're taking things up and down, but we believe that underlying performance really is there. And definitely, we're going to demonstrate that. We'll talk more about that, I'm sure, going in the fourth quarter as we get past our turnarounds.

所以我相信我們正在看到這一點。我知道當你遇到暴風雨的干擾時會很困難。我們正在經歷一些起起落落，但我們相信潛在的表現確實存在。當然，我們將證明這一點。我確信，當我們度過扭虧為盈的第四季度時，我們會更多地討論這個問題。

But we've always said that from our high mark in 2023 which was quarter four, we'd expect $20 to $30 cost improvements due to absorption when we get a full run rate. We obviously weren't there because of the hurricanes and the other turnaround work that we had, so we should have expected another notch down on our costs and would expand a little bit more in margin as we go forward.

但我們總是說，從 2023 年第四季的高點開始，我們預計當我們獲得滿載運轉時，由於吸收，成本將減少 20 至 30 美元。顯然，由於颶風和我們進行的其他週轉工作，我們沒有在那裡，所以我們應該預期我們的成本會再次下降，並且隨著我們的前進，利潤率會增加一點。

And I think that's what investors should look forward to as we do demonstrate that run rate forward.

我認為這就是投資者應該期待的，因為我們確實證明了未來的運行率。

And Clint, I'll just turn it over to you since he congratulated you. You can talk about that, and then, and if you wanted to add anything to that.

克林特，既然他向你表示祝賀，我就把它交給你。你可以討論這個，然後，如果你想補充什麼。

No, I appreciate it, Bruce. And Richard. I do appreciate your congratulations. Bruce, I think you really spoke to it well. I think as you look at the production levels in pre and adjust for the production shutdowns, I think you would have seen a lower cost per tonne and you would (inaudible) improvement on those lines that again is with on the right path on that. And again, if you just adjust for the close, I think you would see that improving.

不，我很感激，布魯斯。還有理查德。我非常感謝你的祝賀。布魯斯，我認為你說得很好。我認為，當您查看預生產水平並針對生產停工進行調整時，我認為您會看到每噸成本較低，並且您會（聽不清楚）改進這些生產線，這又是在正確的道路上。再說一次，如果你只是在收盤時進行調整，我想你會看到情況有所改善。

Steve Byrne, from Bank of America.

史蒂夫·伯恩，來自美國銀行。

Yes. Thank you. I'd like to drill in a little bit on the comments you made about biosciences. This 9 million acres, what are the functional products in here? Are these bio stimulants or are these biologicals? Is this a blended product with fertilizer or seed treatment? How does it flow through your income statement? And more importantly, what's the pipeline look like in this group? Is anything in there you'd call out as having some meaningful longer-term potential?

是的。謝謝。我想深入探討您對生物科學的評論。這900萬畝，這裡有哪些功能性產品？這些是生物興奮劑還是生物製品？這是與肥料或種子處理劑混合的產品嗎？它如何流經您的損益表？更重要的是，這個群體的管道是什麼樣的？您認為其中有什麼東西具有有意義的長期潛力嗎？

Hey. Thanks, Steve. Hoping we get a question and maybe you would be the one. So appreciate that question on biosciences. Because it is something we're proud of. We're seeing really exciting acceleration on the acres covered in these products. I'm going to let Jenny talk about the specifics of your question, but we do feel that in the course of time, this really could be a growth engine for Mosaic. So as I said, we're excited about it. But let me turn it over to Jenny to kind of get into the specifics of the products and then the pipeline.

嘿。謝謝，史蒂夫。希望我們能收到一個問題，也許你就是那個問題。所以很欣賞這個關於生物科學的問題。因為這是我們引以為傲的事。我們看到這些產品覆蓋面積的成長確實令人興奮。我會讓 Jenny 談談你的問題的具體細節，但我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，這確實可能成為 Mosaic 的成長引擎。正如我所說，我們對此感到興奮。但讓我把它交給珍妮，讓她了解產品的細節，然後是管道。

Thanks, Bruce. Thanks for the question. The product that we are we're selling in the market, Steve, are basically nutrient efficiency enhancement products. So the two major products we're selling in North America and Central America called PowerCoat and BioPath. What these products do? They basically improve nutrient use efficiency.

謝謝，布魯斯。謝謝你的提問。史蒂夫，我們在市場上銷售的產品基本上是營養效率增強產品。我們在北美和中美洲銷售的兩種主要產品稱為 PowerCoat 和 BioPath。這些產品有什麼作用？它們基本上提高了養分利用效率。

We do have products that we we're selling in Brazil, in China. They are third-party customers -- third-party products as of today. They are bio stimulants. So how the products are used today? More than 70% products that we're selling are coated around fertilizer granular. And the rest of the 30% are basically being mixed with liquid fertilizer or fungicide or insecticide. And the formulation strengths, which is the strength of our product, have made our products very steady. So our products can be mixed with UAN with ammonia and let -- other crop protection products.

我們確實在巴西和中國銷售產品。他們是第三方客戶——截至目前的第三方產品。它們是生物興奮劑。那麼今天的產品如何使用呢？我們銷售的 70% 以上的產品都塗有肥料顆粒。剩下的30%基本上都是和液肥或殺菌劑或殺蟲劑混合的。而配方的優勢，也就是我們產品的優勢，讓我們的產品非常穩定。因此，我們的產品可以與 UAN 和氨混合，並與其他作物保護產品混合。

And going forward, we will have product to be coated on seeds. So you ask the questions on pipeline. In the pipeline, we are looking for quite a wide range of the products. The most exciting ones, Steve, that I can mention one is a nitrogen fixation material. And we're at the final stage for field trial and the registration. And we also have a range of product which improve phosphorus solubility and that's in the pipeline and that is one of the investments we made over the last few years and this is in the development stage as well.

展望未來，我們將推出可塗抹在種子上的產品。所以你問了有關管道的問題。在管道中，我們正在尋找相當廣泛的產品。史蒂夫，我可以提到的最令人興奮的是固氮材料。我們正處於現場試驗和註冊的最後階段。我們還有一系列提高磷溶解度的產品，正在研發中，這是我們過去幾年進行的投資之一，也處於開發階段。

So stay tuned. We will have more report on the new product pipeline and as well as the accelerated growth that we're making with our market access in market -- major agriculture market in North America, Brazil, China, and India.

所以請繼續關注。我們將有更多關於新產品系列的報告，以及我們透過進入市場——北美、巴西、中國和印度的主要農業市場——所取得的加速成長。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital.

喬爾傑克遜，BMO 資本。

Good morning. Can we talk a bit about your outlook for potash for '25? You're showing about a demand growth, I think, 2 million or 2.5 million tonne of demand growth next year. Just talk about what you also see for supply next year. And then in your base case, how much of that increment demand will Canpotex and Mosaic be able to supply? How many more tonnes can Mosaic supply next year? You haven't really gone above 9 million tonnes, I think, for seven or eight years. What is the most you can do through K3 (inaudible)

早安.我們可以談談您對 25 年鉀肥的展望嗎？我認為，你所展示的需求成長是明年 200 萬或 250 萬噸的需求成長。只需談談您預計明年的供應情況即可。然後，在您的基本情況下，Canpotex 和 Mosaic 將能夠滿足多少增量需求？馬賽克明年還能供應多少噸？我想，已經有七、八年了，產量還沒有真正超過 900 萬噸。透過 K3 您最多可以做什麼（聽不清楚）

Yeah, Joel, you picked up on -- obviously, in our materials, we do see the market growing anywhere from 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes and somewhere in that range next year. See, Laos being part of the additional capacity, there's a little bit more out of Russia and Belarus that probably can be squeaked out as well. And then it's just going to be a remainder probably supplied, as you said, out of Canada in some form or fashion depending on how that demand materializes.

是的，喬爾，您注意到了 - 顯然，在我們的材料中，我們確實看到市場增長從 150 萬噸到 200 萬噸，明年也將在這個範圍內。看，寮國是額外產能的一部分，俄羅斯和白俄羅斯也可能擠出更多產能。然後，正如您所說，剩餘的部分可能會以某種形式或方式從加拿大供應，這取決於需求的實現方式。

But I'm going to turn it over to Jenny and maybe get into the details of what potentially could happen in sharing of supply on that demand.

但我會把它交給珍妮，也許會詳細介紹根據該需求共享供應可能會發生什麼。

Thanks, Bruce. Hey, Joe. Probably want to give you a little bit more specifics on our base case assumptions.

謝謝，布魯斯。嘿，喬。可能想為您提供有關我們的基本情況假設的更多細節。

On the demand side, we believe the current price level or the affordability will have support to the further demand growth and some market as a demand recovery, for example, in Indonesia and Malaysia. And on the supply side, our base case assumptions are assuming further ramp up of EuroChem's VolgaKaliy project and some of the final push of (inaudible) production.

在需求方面，我們認為當前的價格水平或承受能力將支持需求的進一步增長和部分市場的需求復甦，例如印尼和馬來西亞。在供應方面，我們的基本情境假設是 EuroChem 的 VolgaKaliy 專案進一步擴大，以及（聽不清楚）生產的一些最後推動。

So which is going to make the product out of Russia, we're estimating roughly 0.5 million tonne more than this year. And we assume BPC probably already reached to their plateau by using the alternative route to get the product to the market and knowing it is very expensive to serve the market through this alternative route.

因此，我們預計俄羅斯的產量將比今年增加約 50 萬噸。我們假設 BPC 可能已經透過使用替代途徑將產品推向市場達到了穩定水平，並且知道透過這種替代途徑服務市場的成本非常昂貴。

And lastly, as Bruce mentioned, we have big assumptions on the expansion in Laos. So the expansion of the capacity including Asia potash and also partially including YTH as well. And the Asia potash, their capacity expansion in 2024 was very slow due to well-known management change and also the water inflow issues.

最後，正如布魯斯所提到的，我們對寮國的擴張有很大的假設。因此，產能擴張包括亞洲鉀肥，也包括部分雲天化。而亞洲鉀肥，由於眾所周知的管理變革以及進水問題，其 2024 年產能擴張非常緩慢。

We based our assumption for next year that they will be back to the pace for their expansion of the capacity. So as you can see, as we forecast the supply increases in 2025, the two major growth drivers are from Russia and also from Laos. And as we all know, these expansions are also with some significant uncertainties. So in the case, the supply is not coming online as what we suggested, there is a potential that the market is going to be tightened.

我們對明年的假設是，他們將恢復產能擴張的腳步。正如您所看到的，正如我們預測的 2025 年供應增加一樣，兩個主要成長動力來自俄羅斯和寮國。眾所周知，這些擴張也存在一些重大的不確定性。因此，在供應沒有像我們建議的那樣上線的情況下，市場有可能趨緊。

Hey, Joel. Just the other part of your question is what could we produce. And we've announced and we talked about in the opening comments, the investment in Esterhazy, which -- in our hydro float project, which is a high-return, low -- modestly expensive investment. We'll generate another 400,000 tonnes when that comes online mid-year next year.

嘿，喬爾。你問題的另一部分是我們能生產什麼。我們已經宣布並在開場評論中談到了對 Esterhazy 的投資，在我們的水力浮動項目中，這是一項高回報、低成本的投資。明年年中上線時，我們將再生產 40 萬噸。

At that point time, Esterhazy and Belle Plaine combined should be able to produce in that 9 million tonne range. And then based on what we need above and beyond that for Canpotex's participation in our markets here in North America, we'll continue to use Colonsay hopefully more sparingly once that comes on. But to cover things like major turnarounds at Esterhazy, something unforeseen, or if there happens to be a slow in timing and some of the things we've baked in for other supply around the globe, then for sure, we'll be prepared to ramp Colonsay back up if it happens to be idle at the time.

屆時，Esterhazy 和 Belle Plaine 的總產量應該可以達到 900 萬噸。然後，根據我們對 Canpotex 參與北美市場的需求，我們將繼續使用 Colonsay，希望在這種情況發生後能更謹慎地使用。但是，為了涵蓋諸如 Esterhazy 的重大周轉、不可預見的事情，或者如果時間恰好很慢，以及我們為全球其他供應商準備的一些東西，那麼我們肯定會做好準備如果Colonsay 當時恰好閒置，則將其恢復。

Chris Parkinson. Wolfe Research.

克里斯帕金森。沃爾夫研究。

I promised to ask a nice question. All right. So I want to go back on some of the phosphate commentary in terms of getting to the run rate and then obviously factoring in some downtime, just, you know, when we just take a step back and kind of consider everything that your asset base is going through for the last several years, inclusive of the third quarter, how should The Street ultimately just be thinking about what's the average run rate of phosphate rock procurement in terms of the concept of normalized earnings?

我答應要問一個好問題。好的。因此，我想回顧一些關於運行率的磷酸鹽評論，然後顯然考慮到一些停機時間，只是，你知道，當我們退後一步並考慮您的資產基礎的一切時經歷了過去幾年，包括第三季度，華爾街最終應該如何考慮正常化收益概念下磷礦採購的平均運作率是多少？

Same question for processing costs. So when we just sit back and compartmentalize how much your assets should be earning in a normalized environment in '25, hopefully, or presumably into '26, what kind of broad framework should we ultimately be using? Thank you.

對於加工成本同樣的問題。因此，當我們坐下來劃分您的資產在 25 年（希望或大概到 26 年）正常化環境中應該賺取多少收益時，我們最終應該使用什麼樣的廣泛框架？謝謝。

Yeah, Chris. I appreciate the question. And as we've talked multiple times. A way I'll answer that is more like we have is, I think, yes, we are recovering. There's evidence of that on a run rate. As we've been said and been consistent just to put it in context, we won't achieve kind of that [7.8, 8.2] run rate until, largely, end of the year after we finish turnarounds.

是的，克里斯。我很欣賞這個問題。正如我們多次交談過的那樣。我的回答更像是，我認為，是的，我們正在恢復。運行率有證據表明這一點。正如我們所說並始終如一地放在上下文中，我們要到年底完成周轉後才能實現 [7.8, 8.2] 的運行率。

Our turnarounds will finish this year in the next couple of weeks. And then so December pretty -- will be wide open. Unfortunately, we do have a turnaround of Bartow scheduled in the first quarter of next year. Pretty major sulfuric turnaround. So there'll be some lumpiness to that. But look out beyond that at that 7.8% to 8.2%. Conversion costs should come down, as I said earlier, from that high water mark in 2023 by $20 to $30 per tonne. And that should be sustained on an annualized type basis.

今年我們的周轉工作將在接下來的幾週內完成。然後美麗的十二月——將會敞開。不幸的是，我們確實計劃在明年第一季對巴托進行扭虧為盈。硫磺的轉變相當重大。所以會有一些塊狀的東西。但除此之外也要留意 7.8% 至 8.2%。正如我之前所說，轉換成本應從 2023 年的高水位每噸下降 20 至 30 美元。這應該以年化類型為基礎持續下去。

Rock costs that -- we were about $55 kind of flat to where we had been this quarter in Florida. I think there's some upside to that when we get better lined out because there was some impact due to the hurricanes on fixed cost absorption there. But it's a minor upside on rock costs.

搖滾成本是 55 美元，與本季度佛羅裡達州的成本持平。我認為，當我們得到更好的安排時，會有一些好處，因為颶風對固定成本吸收產生了一些影響。但這對岩石成本來說只是一個微小的上漲。

And then it's just going to be a matter on blended rock, how much Miski Mayo is being consumed at any given time in the mix is that is a little higher cost on a blended rock side. So you put all that together and seeing around that $50, $55 rock cost, sub-$95-ish on conversion cost. And that's probably, I think, the numbers that you hope -- that you're looking for, the way I understand it.

然後這只是混合岩石的問題，在混合中的任何給定時間消耗多少米斯基梅奧，這在混合岩石方面的成本要高一些。所以你把所有這些加在一起，你會發現大約 50 美元、55 美元的岩石成本，以及低於 95 美元的轉換成本。我想，這可能就是你所希望的——你正在尋找的數字，按照我的理解。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本‧瑟雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hey. Good morning. And thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to dig a little bit deeper into the Brazilian business into Fertilizantes, if you don't mind. Could you elaborate on what you're seeing in terms of like just farmer activity right now in Brazil, buying behavior, and just like how transactions are going through? Because we're getting so many different signals out of Brazil. Would love to see what the business is for you right now in Brazil, in particular. Thank you.

嘿。早安.感謝您提出我的問題。如果您不介意的話，我只是想更深入地了解巴西肥料業務。您能否詳細說明您所看到的情況，例如巴西目前的農民活動、購買行為以及交易的進行情況？因為我們從巴西收到了很多不同的訊號。我很想看看目前在巴西的業務適合您什麼。謝謝。

Yeah, Ben. Thanks. I'm going to just go ahead and turn that one right over to Jenny and talk about what's going on in Brazil as she's head of that commercial side and has a good pulse of that. So Jenny?

是的，本。謝謝。我將把這個問題轉交給珍妮，談談巴西正在發生的事情，因為她是商業方面的負責人，對此很了解。那麼珍妮？

Sure. Thanks, Bruce. Hey, Ben. I'm not surprised to hear that you say mixed message out of Brazil. I would start to say Brazil has been facing some challenges throughout the year, partially because of the headwind on the commodity prices and partially also due to the credit or liquidity constraints at the farmer level.

當然。謝謝，布魯斯。嘿，本。聽到你從巴西說出混雜的訊息，我並不感到驚訝。我首先要說的是，巴西全年都面臨著一些挑戰，部分原因是大宗商品價格的逆風，部分原因是農民層面的信貸或流動性限制。

What we are saying most recently is that some -- things changed, A, is really on the ag commodity prices. We see the prices have started to climb up from mid of the year and especially at the local level. The prices on reais are actually higher than the US dollar traded in Chicago market. Partially, it is because of the devaluation of reais, partially it is because of the new demand -- local demand, especially the newly added bioethanol plants in the middle of the corn growing states.

我們最近所說的是，一些事情發生了變化，A，確實是在農業大宗商品價格上。我們看到價格從年中開始上漲，尤其是在當地。雷亞爾的價格實際上高於芝加哥市場上交易的美元。部分是因為雷亞爾貶值，部分是因為新的需求——當地需求，尤其是玉米種植州中部新增的生物乙醇工廠。

And with that new demand, we're saying that the farmers are selling at a higher price and to the local demand, and that has largely improved their economics. So we are tracking very closely on, A, how much grains the farmers have sold for their next crops; and B, how much purchases they have made for their next season.

有了新的需求，我們可以說農民正在以更高的價格出售並滿足當地需求，這在很大程度上改善了他們的經濟。因此，我們正在密切跟踪，A，農民為下一季作物出售了多少穀物； B，他們為下一季購買了多少商品。

So as of last Friday, for the coming safrinhacorn, farmers have sold 67% of their crops, which is 7% higher than the same time of last year and close to the historical average as a part of the progress as the farmers are selling corn and they are buying fertilizers. So for the coming safrinhacorn season, they have purchased over 60% of their fertilizers, which is ahead of the same time of last year. It's a similar situation for the summer soybean season. It is early, I know. But usually, at this point of time, farmers started to sell their next soybean crops already.

因此，截至上週五，對於即將到來的藏紅花玉米，農民已經出售了 67% 的農作物，比去年同期高出 7%，接近歷史平均水平，這是農民出售玉米的進展的一部分他們正在購買化肥。因此，對於即將到來的藏紅果季節，他們已經購買了超過 60% 的化肥，這比去年同期要早。夏季大豆季節的情況也類似。我知道現在還早。但通常在這個時候，農民已經開始出售下一批大豆作物了。

As of last Friday, the farmers have sold 28% of the soybean, which they are going to plant next summer. And this is 4% higher than the same time of last year and 7% higher than the year before. It's similarly to the purchases of the fertilizers. Last week, we saw a big step up. They have purchased 5% of their fertilizer for their next summer season, which is at par as the last two years.

截至上週五，農民已售出 28% 的大豆，他們將在明年夏天種植這些大豆。而這比去年同期高出4%，比前年高出7%。這與購買肥料類似。上週，我們看到了一個很大的進步。他們購買了 5% 的肥料用於下個夏季，與過去兩年的水平相當。

So what I want to conclude is that as challenging as it is, at the grower level, we are seeing improving sentiment, improving economics, and improving activities.

因此，我想得出的結論是，儘管充滿挑戰，但在種植者層面，我們看到情緒有所改善，經濟狀況有所改善，活動有所改善。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

H. this is Justin Pellegrino on for Vincent. I just had a quick question. You mentioned the unmet demand in India for phosphate because of the unfavorable government subsidy environment. Can you just give some commentary around how you're seeing those subsidies shifting on the ground? And then, maybe how much product was missed out on 2024 that you could see shifting to 2025? Thank you.

H. 這是文森特的賈斯汀·佩萊格里諾。我只是有一個簡單的問題。您提到，由於政府補貼環境不利，印度對磷酸鹽的需求未能滿足。您能否就您如何看待這些補貼的實際變化發表一些評論？然後，也許有多少產品在 2024 年被錯過，而您可能會看到這些產品會轉移到 2025 年？謝謝。

Yeah, Justin. Thanks. Definitely saw a significant amount missed versus what trend demand would be in India. And I'm going to turn over to Jenny to give the details. But whether it's a shift in the MRP or something on the subsidy itself, definitely see that that's necessary in order to incentivize growers to actually put the demand that they need on the crops.

是的，賈斯汀。謝謝。與印度的趨勢需求相比，肯定會錯過大量的產品。我將請珍妮提供詳細資訊。但無論是 MRP 的變化還是補貼本身的變化，為了激勵種植者真正將他們所需的需求放在農作物上，這都是必要的。

So with that, let me turn it over to Jenny and kind of get into the detailed statistics.

那麼，讓我把它交給珍妮並了解詳細的統計數據。

Sure, Bruce. So the farmer demand in India this year to DAP and for the same reason, MLP as well, are very strong, which is, A, supported by very good monsoon; and B, supported by very good commodity prices. But on DAP itself, the demand has been so strong, supply was not able to catch up.

當然，布魯斯。因此，今年印度農民對 DAP 的需求非常強勁，出於同樣的原因，MLP 也非常強勁，A 受到非常好的季風的支持； B，受到非常好的大宗商品價格的支撐。但就磷酸二銨本身而言，需求如此強勁，供應卻無法跟上。

The economics that you mentioned on importers, the importers economics are actually defined by two things, right? One is really the subsidy from the government. B is the differences between international price -- CFR price and the farmer price. This year, farmer price are very low at $360 per tonne. If you think about international market price, it's at $640-ish level. So there is such a big gap. The government has not been able to catch up on the subsidies.

您提到的進口商經濟學，進口商經濟學其實是由兩件事定義的，對嗎？一是真正的政府補貼。B是國際價格－CFR價格和農民價格之間的差異。今年，農民價格非常低，為每噸 360 美元。如果考慮國際市場價格，價格約為 640 美元左右。所以有這麼大的差距。政府未能趕上補貼。

So therefore, the importers were reluctant to import from international market and that has caused the shortage to the farmers. We estimate the DAP shipment reduction this year due to this dynamic might be around 2 million tonne. Farmers still need these 2 million tonnes. The shipment partially from reduced consumption and partially coming from this fully depleted inventory.

因此，進口商不願意從國際市場進口，這導致了農民的短缺。我們估計，由於這種動態，今年 DAP 出貨量可能減少約 200 萬噸。農民仍需要這200萬噸。出貨部分來自消耗減少，部分來自完全耗盡的庫存。

So as we get into next year, things likely going to be changed, we assume, A, is the farmer price, likely going to be adjusted. $360 is just probably too low. And how that price is going to be adjusted? We assume that will be adjusted to the level farmers still have good economics to support it, but partially, the government subsidy will need to be adjusted as well. So however, that dynamics are going to be played out, we know the Indian farmers will need to put down DAP on the ground. And we know that they were short this year already. There were a lot of publicity in country for the shortage of phosphate.

因此，當我們進入明年時，情況可能會發生變化，我們假設 A 是農民價格，可能會​​進行調整。 360 美元可能太低了。那麼這個價格會如何調整呢？我們假設將調整到農民仍然有良好的經濟支持的水平，但部分政府補貼也需要調整。然而，這種動態將會發揮出來，我們知道印度農民將需要鎮壓行動黨。我們知道今年它們已經短缺了。國內對於磷酸鹽短缺的宣傳甚囂塵上。

So that laid a good foundation as the government get into their consideration for the subsidy into 2025.

這為政府考慮2025年的補貼奠定了良好的基礎。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

安德魯‧黃（Andrew Wong），加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hey, good morning. Just a few questions on phosphates again. So can we just clarify on the 8 million tonne phosphate run rate? Is that annualizing monthly or quarterly production level when there's no turnarounds? And if so, what would be considered a realistic total annual production going forward when you just kind of account for all of that? And then, just on phosphate demand, what is -- what are your assumptions assume for next year based on pricing and affordability? Because that's obviously had a big impact on phosphate demand this year as you've highlighted. So do prices need to come down a little bit to kind of support that phosphate demand growth? Just kind of wondering how you think about, Thanks.

嘿，早安。再問幾個關於磷酸鹽的問題。那我們能否澄清一下800萬噸磷酸鹽的運作情況？這是沒有周轉情況下的年化月度或季度產量水準嗎？如果是這樣，當您考慮所有這些因素時，未來實際的年總產量是多少？然後，就磷酸鹽需求而言，您根據定價和承受能力對明年的假設是什麼？因為正如您所強調的那樣，這顯然對今年的磷酸鹽需求產生了重大影響。那麼，價格是否需要稍微下降以支持磷酸鹽需求的成長？只是想知道你是怎麼想的，謝謝。

Hey, Andrew. Yeah, on phosphates, all of that, that 7.8 million to 8.2 million tonne annualized range, it has what we would consider normal interruption due to historically normal turnarounds at historically normal scope as well as historically normal weather disruptions. What we've seen over the last couple of years and getting back to that run rate is abnormally large turnaround time and turnaround scope.

嘿，安德魯。是的，就磷酸鹽而言，所有這些，780萬噸至820萬噸的年化範圍，我們認為是由於歷史正常範圍內的歷史正常週轉以及歷史正常天氣幹擾而造成的正常中斷。我們在過去幾年中看到並回到了運行率，週轉時間和周轉範圍異常大。

And then of course, this year more abnormally weather related and issues during the hurricane. So based on history -- now whether history repeats itself on hurricanes, that's a whole different question. If we do see this type of weather pattern going forward, we probably have some downside on the range. But that 8 million, if you want to pick a single point between 7.8 million and 8.2 million, it's something that we'd expect on an annualized basis.

當然，今年颶風期間出現了更多與異常天氣相關的問題。因此，基於歷史——現在歷史是否會在颶風中重演，這是一個完全不同的問題。如果我們確實看到這種類型的天氣模式繼續發展，我們的範圍可能會出現一些下行。但是，如果你想在 780 萬到 820 萬之間選擇一個點，那麼這 800 萬是我們在年化基礎上所期望的。

The lumpiness may be month to month, quarter to quarter, depending on how many turnarounds are in any given quarter or in any given month, obviously. But that we would make that up, as we said in the back half of the year or in the first half of the year, depending on when that turnaround fell.

顯然，這種波動可能是逐月、逐季的，這取決於任何給定季度或任何給定月份的周轉次數。但正如我們在下半年或上半年所說，我們會彌補這一點，這取決於這種轉變何時發生。

So the $8 million is an average realized number, not -- and need to handicap that more. As far as demand growth, for sure, prices and phosphate have been high, but prices overall, I think, you got to look at affordability on all of the input costs at the farm gate. Obviously, potash, very affordable right now. But what's going on with land rent, what's going on with other input costs have to go into account as well as what we've seen this year is pretty large yields on given acres and that will turn out to be a little better on farmer economics as well. We have seen in Brazil, as an example, barter ratios as Jenny talked about starting to rise.

因此，800 萬美元是平均實現的數字，而不是——並且需要更多地限制這一數字。就需求成長而言，當然，價格和磷酸鹽一直很高，但我認為總體價格，你必須考慮農場門口所有投入成本的承受能力。顯然，鉀肥現在非常實惠。但是，必須考慮土地租金的情況、其他投入成本的情況，以及我們今年所看到的給定英畝土地的產量相當大，這對農民經濟來說會好一些以及。以巴西為例，我們看到珍妮談到的以物易物比率開始上升。

So the constructiveness is always a function of what's going on in the geography, obviously. But we believe, overall affordability will still be there for the farmer when you add everything together. And the amount of nutrients being taken off of this crop, particularly in North America, are quite large. I think Jenny talked about that earlier. And the need to replenish that's going to be high without suffering some type of yield impact.

因此，顯然，建設性始終是地理上正在發生的事情的函數。但我們相信，當你把所有東西加在一起時，農民的整體負擔能力仍然存在。這種作物的養分流失量相當大，尤其是在北美。我想珍妮早些時候談到過這一點。在不遭受某種產量影響的情況下，補充的需求將會很高。

And I'll turn over to Jenny and see if you want to add any more.

我將轉給珍妮，看看您是否還想補充。

Yeah. Thanks, Bruce. I think Andrew, I would say next year, the demand grows probably not -- not likely going to say because price comes down and the demand grow. I would turn that to say the demand might only grow if supply can be really improved.

是的。謝謝，布魯斯。我認為安德魯，我會說明年需求可能不會成長——不太可能說因為價格下降而需求成長。我想說的是，只有供應能真正改善，需求才可能成長。

Our current forecast on supply side of the assumption for 2025, there's no major increases but more on the improvement like ourselves on the production. So if the supply can be improved next year, the demand will get to grow. The price, like Bruce mentioned, it's probably not necessarily going to be the factor to define the size of the demand. Thanks.

我們目前對 2025 年供應的預測，沒有大幅成長，但更多的是像我們一樣在生產方面有所改善。因此，如果明年供應能夠改善，需求就會成長。正如布魯斯所提到的，價格可能不一定是定義需求規模的因素。謝謝。

Elaine Rodriguez, Mizuho.

伊萊恩·羅德里格斯，瑞穗。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a follow up to that phosphate question. So Bruce, when you look at all the data and charts showing phosphate affordability being such an outlier compared to the other nutrients, like what goes through your mind? Is it that great, I'm exposed to the best and highest nutrients right now in DAP or is there some apprehension being such an outlier?

謝謝。大家早安。只是對磷酸鹽問題的跟進。那麼，布魯斯，當您查看所有顯示磷酸鹽負擔能力與其他營養素相比如此異常的數據和圖表時，您會想到什麼？真的有那麼好嗎？

Yeah, Elaine, appreciate the question. Right now, it obviously appears to be -- it is high as a nutrient on its own. You know, I talked about the aggregate, but I know that's not the nature of your question. What would things that we would be looking for to be more concerned or more confident would be the announcement of significant new capacity, right?

是的，伊萊恩，謝謝你提出這個問題。現在，它顯然是——它本身作為一種營養素就很高。你知道，我談到了總體，但我知道這不是你問題的本質。我們希望更關心或更有信心的事情是宣布重要的新產能，對嗎？

As Jenny said, in our view, the constructiveness of the phosphate market on its own is unique because it is limited on supply. That is what's driving prices. It isn't the fact that anyone is trying to manipulate or do anything on prices one way or the other. It just is that is based on the limited supply intersecting demand. That is the fair price for phosphate.

正如珍妮所說，我們認為磷酸鹽市場本身的建設性是獨一無二的，因為它的供應有限。這就是推動價格上漲的原因。事實上，並不是有人試圖以某種方式操縱價格或對價格採取任何行動。這只是基於有限的供應與需求的交叉。這是磷酸鹽的公平價格。

If somebody were to announce new capacity, historically, if you look back in time, when things have trended for this long, whether it be an OCP or a modern new supply would have been announced, that just simply hasn't happened to significance that we believe it's going to change anything in our forecast or the way we look at that price, at least in the near term. So going into 2025, still feel that realized tripping margins for Mosaic are going to be quite good.

如果有人宣布新的產能，從歷史上看，如果你回顧過去，當事情已經發展了這麼長時間時，無論是 OCP 還是現代的新供應都會被宣布，這根本沒有發生意義重大我們相信，這將改變我們的預測或我們看待價格的方式，至少在短期內是如此。因此，進入 2025 年，我仍然認為 Mosaic 的實現利潤率將會相當不錯。

And until we see something change on the supply side, fundamentally, that is going to stay, I don't think we have great concerns that there is an obvious catalyst for something to change on the pricing side.

在我們看到供應方面發生變化之前，從根本上講，這種情況將持續下去，我認為我們不會太擔心定價方面發生變化的明顯催化劑。

Jenny, anything that I may have missed?

珍妮，我可能錯過了什麼嗎？

Yeah, I guess, the only one thing, Bruce, I would add, the high prices of phosphate today are also supported by high raw material prices. If you look at the price of ammonia and sulfur, they stay at very elevated level as well. So if anything changes next year on the S&D side of ammonia, for example, or sulfur, that might adjust the price for phosphate, although the stripping margin of phosphate are really -- depend on the S&D, as Bruce mentioned earlier. So I just want to add that one point.

是的，我想，布魯斯，我要補充的唯一一件事是，今天磷酸鹽的高價格也受到高原料價格的支撐。如果你看看氨和硫的價格，它們也保持在非常高的水平。因此，如果明年氨或硫的 S&D 方面發生任何變化，可能會調整磷酸鹽的價格，儘管磷酸鹽的剝離利潤實際上取決於 S&D，正如 Bruce 之前提到的那樣。所以我只想補充這一點。

Operator, is there another question?

接線員，還有問題嗎？

Joshua Spector, UBS.

約書亞‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

Good morning. This is Lucas Beaumont on for Josh. I just want to go back to Fertilizantes. So you guys have your kind of updated shipment outlook there on slide 10. You're kind of putting in 2025, that's going to be like the fifth year in a row with relatively kind of rangebound shipments. I know we've got a lot of interruptions of different phases over that period. But I guess just going back further, we used to kind of get 5% a year in sort of growth there in the prior decade. So just be curious to kind of get your thoughts there now on how you see the outlook for that market going forward. Do you expect a higher return to higher growth rates there? Or have we sort of reached a more stable kind of lower growth phase now? Thank you.

早安.我是盧卡斯·博蒙特（Lucas Beaumont）為喬許（Josh）代言。我只想回到 Fertilizantes。所以你們在投影片 10 上看到了最新的出貨前景。預計到 2025 年，這將是出貨量連續第五年處於相對區間波動。我知道在那段時期我們在不同階段遇到了很多中斷。但我想，再回溯一下，在過去的十年裡，我們每年的成長率是 5%。因此，請好奇地想知道您如何看待該市場的未來前景。您預計那裡的成長率會更高嗎？或者我們現在已經達到了更穩定的較低成長階段？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Lucas. I think we're still very optimistic in Brazil on overall fertilizer demand growth, if I understood the nature of your question because it was a little bit of static.

是的。謝謝，盧卡斯。我認為，如果我理解你問題的性質的話，我們對巴西的整體化肥需求成長仍然非常樂觀，因為它有點靜態。

But let me turn over to Jenny to kind of talk more about the details on what we see there going into next year.

但讓我請珍妮多談談我們明年看到的細節。

Sure, Bruce. I think for Brazil next year, we do expect the market is going to continue to grow and expand. As we mentioned earlier, the farm economics are improving and barter ratios are improving. So the sign that we're seeing today support our forecast for next year on the overall market expansion. For ourselves, you mentioned -- if I heard you correctly, you mentioned our own sales volume, I would say we've been very consistent as we operate in a market like Brazil, especially for our distribution business. We are always pursuing for margin of value than the volume, especially in this year. And with the credit risk environment, we are very surgical and selective on who we sell to and what kind of credit risk that we are taking. As a result of it, our volume probably not growing as much as the market growth. But we -- again, we are pursuing value over volume.

當然，布魯斯。我認為對於明年的巴西，我們確實預計市場將繼續成長和擴大。正如我們之前提到的，農業經濟正在改善，以物易物比率也在改善。因此，我們今天看到的跡象支持了我們對明年整體市場擴張的預測。對於我們自己來說，你提到——如果我沒聽錯的話，你提到了我們自己的銷量，我想說，我們在巴西這樣的市場運營，尤其是我們的分銷業務，一直非常穩定。我們一直追求的是價值邊際而不是數量，尤其是今年。在信用風險環境下，我們對銷售對像以及我們承擔的信用風險類型非常謹慎且有選擇性。因此，我們的銷售成長可能不會趕上市場的成長。但我們再次強調，我們追求的是價值而不是數量。

And then Lucas again, now that I -- Jenny was talking about it, we do have -- our Palmeirante investment as well, which will add another 1 million tonne of distribution capability, which right now, we're at kind of that 9 million mark of distribution capability for blended fertilizer. So Palmeirante will add another 1 million in the north of Brazil where we don't have owned footprint today, and that'll come online middle of next year. So that's another point where we'll be able to grow.

然後盧卡斯又來了，現在我 - 珍妮正在談論它，我們確實也有 - 我們的 Palmeirante 投資，這將增加另外 100 萬噸的分銷能力，目前，我們處於那種 9萬標混合肥配送能力。因此，Palmeirante 將在巴西北部再增加 100 萬個，我們目前在該地區還沒有擁有自己的足跡，該項目將於明年年中上線。這是我們能夠成長的另一個點。

Again, to Jenny's point, as long as it makes economic sense and risk adjusted sense for us, based on what's going on with credit and other things like that. But that will be the flexibility that we'll have to continue to grow in Brazil, which we still believe is one of the key agricultural markets to be in the world.

再次強調，對於珍妮的觀點，只要它對我們來說具有經濟意義和風險調整意義，基於信貸和其他類似事情的情況。但這將是我們在巴西繼續發展所必須的靈活性，我們仍然相信巴西是世界上主要的農業市場之一。

Jeff Zekauskas, JP Morgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

Thanks very much. Two-part question. President Lukashenko of Belarus suggested that Russia might curtail its potash shipments. Have you seen any signs that either Belarus or VolgaKaliy or EuroChem are curtailing in any way?

非常感謝。兩部分的問題。白俄羅斯總統盧卡申科建議俄羅斯可能減少鉀肥出口。您是否看到白俄羅斯、VolgaKaliy 或 EuroChem 正在以任何方式削減產能的跡象？

And second in China, if you look at overall phosphate production in China, inclusive of what's shipped to the local markets and exports, has that total volume risen or fallen relative to the year when China exported at very, very high rates, 11 million tonnes?

其次，在中國，如果你看看中國的磷酸鹽總產量，包括運往當地市場和出口的產量，與中國以非常非常高的速度（1100萬噸）出口的那一年相比，總產量是上升還是下降？

Yeah. No, Jeff, thanks. I think, between Jenny and I, we can -- we got the gist of the question. But to our knowledge -- to my knowledge, I have not seen any evidence that Belarus or Russia have done anything either collaboratively or independently to reduce rates.

是的。不，傑夫，謝謝。我想，在珍妮和我之間，我們可以──我們明白了問題的要點。但據我們所知，我還沒有看到任何證據表明白俄羅斯或俄羅斯合作或獨立採取了任何措施來降低利率。

Yes, we saw that article from President Lukashenko as well. But there's no evidence. In fact, I think, the shipments, at least on the data that we have access to out of Belarus anyways is, has been pretty consistent. Jenny, hasn't over the last quarter?

是的，我們也看到了盧卡申科總統的文章。但沒有證據。事實上，我認為，至少從我們從白俄羅斯獲得的數據來看，出貨量一直相當一致。珍妮，上個季度還沒結束嗎？

Yes. Yeah.

是的。是的。

So no evidence, Jeff, I mean, obviously they're going to do what they do and as a market participant in this space, we'll look forward to whatever that is one way or the other and then make our adjustments on our strategy. But that's the beauty of the resilient supply chain that we have both with Canpotex and then ourselves with Colonsay as our flex.

所以沒有證據，傑夫，我的意思是，顯然他們會做他們所做的事情，作為這個領域的市場參與者，我們將期待無論哪種方式，然後對我們的策略進行調整。但這就是我們與 Canpotex 以及我們自己與 Colonsay 一起擁有的彈性供應鏈的美妙之處。

And we'll react appropriately if something were to change in the overall S&D based on what has been said by Belarus. On the China thing, I think I'm just going to turn it directly over to Jenny to talk about that because she and the team have a lot of boots on the ground information. So Jenny?

如果根據白俄羅斯的說法整體戰略與發展發生變化，我們將做出適當反應。關於中國的事情，我想我會直接把它交給珍妮來討論，因為她和團隊有很多實地資訊。那麼珍妮？

Sure. Hey, Jeff. On the -- to your question on phosphate production out of China, at the P205 level, this year, we are forecasting they're going to produce more phosphate related products than last year or the year before. This increases of production including the increases of LFP as we mentioned earlier, but also increases of P4, which is yellow phosphorus, which used to be coming from other route and now to produce herbicide like glyphosate.

當然。嘿，傑夫。關於你關於中國磷酸鹽生產的問題，在 P205 水準上，今年，我們預測他們將生產比去年或前年更多的磷酸鹽相關產品。產量的增加包括我們前面提到的 LFP 的增加，還有 P4 的增加，即黃磷，以前來自其他路線，現在用於生產草甘膦等除草劑。

Now, more and more glyphosates are used -- are shifting production coming from the wet process which is P205 that we're in the same space to compete the P205 molecule. So the increases of LFP PPA and also the raw material for glyphosate is one of the drivers driving higher production of P205.

現在，越來越多的草甘膦被使用——正在將生產轉向濕法工藝，即 P205，我們在同一領域競爭 P205 分子。因此，LFP PPA以及草甘膦原料的增加是推動P205產量增加的驅動因素之一。

On DAP, MAP, TSP, SSP level, we are seeing an increase of the production as well. Well, you don't really see it from export with this increased production, but that is mostly driven by increases of local consumption. So we are seeing significant step up of overall MPK consumption -- well, I'll take it back phosphate and potash consumption in China. Partially, I believe it is driven by the overall economics of the crops.

在 DAP、MAP、TSP、SSP 層面，我們也看到產量增加。嗯，你並沒有真正從出口中看到產量的增加，但這主要是由當地消費的增加所推動的。因此，我們看到整體 MPK 消費量顯著增加 - 好吧，我將收回中國的磷酸鹽和鉀肥消費量。我認為這在一定程度上是由農作物的整體經濟效益所驅動的。

The other thing that we're keeping a very close eye on is the adoption of GMO. This is the first year they started to grow a GMO corn and GMO soybean, which will require more intensified fertilizer management to maximize the yield. So that is the other, driver, we will continue to report going forward.

我們密切關注的另一件事是基因改造生物的採用。這是他們開始種植基改玉米和基改大豆的第一年，這將需要更強化的肥料管理才能最大限度地提高產量。這就是另一個司機，我們將繼續報道。

So with that, I think, operator, we're going to stop taking questions and I will go ahead and conclude the call.

因此，我想，接線員，我們將停止提問，我將繼續結束通話。

So thank you, everyone. And to conclude our call, I want to emphasize our key points. We've overcome three hurricanes and other challenges. And today Mosaic is in excellent position to benefit from improving business conditions. We're investing in our strengths while acknowledging areas where we need to improve returns. We're reducing costs and capital expenditures.

謝謝大家。在結束我們的通話時，我想強調我們的要點。我們已經克服了三場颶風和其他挑戰。如今，馬賽克處於有利位置，可以從改善的商業環境中受益。我們正在投資我們的優勢，同時承認我們需要提高回報的領域。我們正在降低成本和資本支出。

Our Mosaic biosciences business is growing fast. And our plants and mines are running hard and safely to help us meet the strong demand for our products. We're energized for the future and our outlook for the remainder of this year in 2025 is positive.

我們的馬賽克生物科學業務正在快速成長。我們的工廠和礦場正在努力、安全地運行，以幫助我們滿足對產品的強勁需求。我們對未來充滿活力，對今年剩餘時間（即 2025 年）的前景持樂觀態度。

So thank you for joining our call and everyone have a great and safe day.

感謝您加入我們的通話，祝大家有個愉快又安全的一天。

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。我們非常感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。