美盛公司 (MOS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Mosaic Company's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

各位早安，歡迎參加馬賽克公司（Mosaic Company）2023 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Your host for today's call is Jason Tremblay. Jason, you may begin.

提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。今天的主持人是 Jason Tremblay。Jason，您可以開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by a fireside chat, then open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Executive Vice President, Commercial, will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2023 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Bruce Bodine 提供，接著進行爐邊談話，然後開放問答。執行副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland，以及執行副總裁（商務）Jenny Wang 也將出席回答各位的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於關於未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。

We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce.

我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們的新聞稿與績效資料亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。現在我想把電話交給 Bruce。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call today. This is my first earnings call as Mosaic's CEO, and I'd like to begin by acknowledging Joc O'Rourke for his many contributions to the company. Joc held this role for nearly a decade, and the company is much stronger today, thanks to his leadership. Under Joc, Mosaic expanded its footprint in Brazil with the successful Vale Fertilizantes acquisition. We completed development of the world's largest potash mine. We transformed our cost structures, and we deleveraged and optimized our balance sheet. We have opportunities to improve returns and drive shareholder value by building on the current position of strength that Joc helped create. I look forward to evolving Mosaic's strategy and to helping all of you understand just how we will do that.

各位早安。感謝各位今天加入我們的電話會議。這是我擔任 Mosaic 執行長後的第一次財報電話會議，我想先肯定 Joc O'Rourke 對公司的諸多貢獻。Joc 擔任此職位將近十年，在他的領導下，公司如今更加強健。在 Joc 任內，Mosaic 透過成功收購 Vale Fertilizantes 擴大了在巴西的版圖。我們完成了全球最大的鉀肥礦開發。我們重塑了成本結構，並降低槓桿、優化資產負債表。藉由在 Joc 協助建立的現有強勢基礎上再接再厲，我們有機會提升報酬並為股東創造價值。我期待推進 Mosaic 的策略演進，也期待協助各位了解我們將如何做到這一點。

So for today, there are a few key messages that we would like you to take away from this call. First, phosphate markets are very strong. We expect dynamics to remain constructive for the foreseeable future, and we are working to optimize our production so we can benefit fully. Second, we expect demand recovery in potash. In fact, we are seeing early signs of demand emerging in Brazil. That said, given current potash economics, we will be curtailing production from our Colonsay mine.

因此，今天我們希望各位從本次電話會議帶走幾個關鍵訊息。第一，磷酸鹽市場非常強勁。我們預期在可預見的未來，市場動態仍將維持建設性，我們正致力於最佳化產量，以便充分受益。第二，我們預期鉀肥需求將復甦。事實上，我們已在巴西看到需求開始浮現的早期跡象。不過，鑑於目前鉀肥的經濟性，我們將削減（curtail）Colonsay 礦的產量。

Third, we are taking these actions as well as reducing costs and capital expenditures to improve through-cycle returns. Finally, with our strong financial foundation in place, we remain committed to prudent capital allocation selectively investing when risk-adjusted returns are compelling and returning excess cash through share repurchases and dividends.

第三，我們採取上述行動，並同時降低成本與資本支出，以提升跨景氣循環（through-cycle）的報酬。最後，在穩健的財務基礎到位之下，我們仍致力於審慎的資本配置：在風險調整後報酬具吸引力時選擇性投資，並透過庫藏股回購與股利發放返還多餘現金。

For full year 2023, Mosaic generated revenue of $13.7 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $3.57. We invested $1.4 billion in the business, refinanced $900 million in long-term debt and returned $1.1 billion to shareholders, including over $750 million in share repurchases.

2023 全年，Mosaic 創造營收 137 億美元、調整後 EBITDA 28 億美元，以及調整後每股盈餘 3.57 美元。我們對業務投資 14 億美元，為 9 億美元長期債務進行再融資，並向股東返還 11 億美元，其中包含超過 7.5 億美元的股票回購。

Let's start by looking at the market. 2022 brought extreme volatility to fertilizer markets. High prices driven by supply disruption eventually reduced demand. In 2023, as prices retreated, customers returned in many key markets. The long-term global grain and oilseed supply and demand picture remains encouraging with secular demand growth outpacing supply. In addition to population and income growth, demand for agricultural commodities is being driven by renewable fuel adoption, which we expect will continue to ramp over the next several years.

我們先從市場談起。2022 年肥料市場出現極端波動。供應中斷推升的高價格最終抑制了需求。2023 年，隨著價格回落，許多關鍵市場的客戶重新回到市場。長期而言，全球穀物與油籽的供需前景仍然令人鼓舞，結構性需求成長速度高於供給。除了人口與所得成長之外，農產品需求也受到再生燃料採用所帶動，我們預期未來幾年將持續加速。

Recent policy mandates have been announced in California, the European Union and in Singapore, and additional mandates are expected in the future. This emerging source of demand has the potential to require tens of millions of additional acres of production. Short-term fundamentals also look positive.

近期，加州、歐盟與新加坡已宣布政策強制要求，未來也預期會有更多要求出爐。這個新興需求來源可能需要額外增加數千萬英畝的生產面積。短期基本面看起來也偏正向。

We believe that ongoing weather challenges in key growing regions, including Brazil, will result in grain production lower than what the market is anticipating. This suggests that already low stock-to-use ratios will remain under pressure and support a healthy grain price environment.

我們認為，包括巴西在內的關鍵種植區持續面臨天候挑戰，將使穀物產量低於市場預期。這意味著原本就偏低的庫存使用比（stock-to-use ratios）將持續承壓，並支撐健康的穀物價格環境。

On this point, there tends to be a lot of focus on the stock-to-use ratios for corn and soybeans. As you can see in the presentation materials we posted, these two commodities represent approximately 30% of the global potash and phosphate consumption. This means that 70% of consumption is tied to other crops, many of which are experiencing continued tightening in their ratios. We believe the result is that growers around the world continue to be incentivized to maximize yield and crop production through strong fertilizer applications.

在這一點上，市場往往高度關注玉米與黃豆的庫存使用比。如各位在我們發布的簡報資料中所見，這兩項作物約占全球鉀肥與磷酸鹽消耗量的 30%。這表示其餘 70% 的消耗量與其他作物相關，而其中許多作物的比率仍在持續收緊。我們認為，其結果是全球種植者仍受到激勵，透過強勁的施肥來最大化單位產量與作物生產。

In North America, a long fall application season drove strong demand well into the fourth quarter. Solid winter fill activity tells us bins are near empty and channel inventories are low. We are seeing demand strength continue into the spring planting season and sales volumes are mostly committed through March.

在北美，漫長的秋季施肥季帶動強勁需求一路延續到第四季。穩健的冬季補庫活動顯示庫槽幾近見底、通路庫存偏低。我們看到需求強勢延續至春耕季，且銷售量多數已承諾至 3 月。

In Brazil, barter ratios for both soybeans and corn are favorable. And while weather impacts have delayed fertilizer purchases, our outlook for full year 2024 is very positive, with expectations of fertilizer shipments at or near an all-time record as growers need to replenish soil nutrients. Favorable ag commodity and fertilizer demand drivers are especially promising for phosphate markets.

在巴西，無論黃豆或玉米的以物易物比率（barter ratios）都相當有利。儘管天候影響延後了肥料採購，我們對 2024 全年展望仍非常正向，預期肥料出貨量將達到或接近歷史新高，因為種植者需要補充土壤養分。有利的農產品與肥料需求驅動因素，對磷酸鹽市場尤其具吸引力。

We expect global supply will remain tight due in part to China's fertilizer export restrictions as the government prioritizes domestic food security. Tighter environmental oversight has also had an impact with the reduction of domestic DAP production. China also continues to direct more asset to industrial markets. Lithium iron phosphate production has more than tripled in the last 2 years, and we expect growth to continue at a rapid pace. The competition for phosphate molecules is intensifying. And it will continue to do so for quite some time.

我們預期全球供給將維持緊俏，部分原因在於中國的肥料出口限制，政府將國內糧食安全列為優先事項。更嚴格的環保監管也帶來影響，導致國內 DAP 產量下降。中國也持續將更多資產導向工業市場。磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）產量在過去兩年已成長逾三倍，我們預期仍將快速成長。對磷酸鹽分子（phosphate molecules）的競爭正在加劇，且在相當長一段時間內仍將持續。

This, together with limited capacity additions in the near future, suggests phosphate market fundamentals will remain constructive. For potash, supply is adequate to meet demand in the near term and economics have not yet improved, which is why we intend to curtail production at Colonsay. We will continue to monitor market developments and customer demand. And when needed, Colonsay will be prepared to return to service in short order.

上述因素，加上短期內新增產能有限，顯示磷酸鹽市場基本面將維持建設性。至於鉀肥，短期供給足以滿足需求，且經濟性尚未改善，這也是我們打算在 Colonsay 削減產量的原因。我們將持續監測市場發展與客戶需求；一旦需要，Colonsay 也將能在短時間內準備好恢復運轉。

Overall, ag and fertilizer market dynamics remain solid. At Mosaic, we continue to focus on meeting customer needs, executing on our business strategy, optimizing our operations and delivering value to shareholders.

整體而言，農業與肥料市場動態仍然穩健。在 Mosaic，我們將持續聚焦於滿足客戶需求、落實業務策略、最佳化營運，並為股東創造價值。

Turning now to fourth quarter results and our first quarter outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2023, Mosaic delivered revenue of $3.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $646 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.71. Our potash business generated $322 million of adjusted EBITDA on sales volumes of roughly 2.6 million tonnes. With the port at Portland, Oregon back up and running, the team at Canpotex had a strong finish to the year, enabling us to deliver sales volumes well within the range of our initial guidance.

接著談第四季業績與第一季展望。2023 年第四季，Mosaic 繳出營收 31 億美元、調整後 EBITDA 6.46 億美元，以及調整後每股盈餘 0.71 美元。我們的鉀肥業務在約 260 萬噸銷售量下，創造 3.22 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。隨著俄勒岡州波特蘭港恢復運作，Canpotex 團隊在年底表現強勁，使我們得以交付的銷售量落在初始指引區間內。

We expect sales volumes for the first quarter of 2024 in the range of 2 million to 2.2 million tonnes and potash prices at the mine in the range of $225 to $250 per tonne. In phosphates, we generated $259 million in adjusted EBITDA on sales volumes of 1.6 million tonnes. Realized stripping margins remained strong for the quarter but were offset by lower cost absorption from lower production levels. For the first quarter, we expect phosphate sales volume in the range of 1.6 million to 1.8 million tonnes and DAP-realized prices at the mine in the range of $580 to $605 per tonne.

我們預期 2024 年第一季銷售量約在 200 萬至 220 萬噸之間，且礦山端鉀肥價格約在每噸 225 至 250 美元之間。在磷酸鹽方面，我們在 160 萬噸銷售量下創造 2.59 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。本季實現的剝採利差（stripping margins）仍然強勁，但因產量較低導致的成本吸收下降而被部分抵銷。第一季方面，我們預期磷酸鹽銷售量約在 160 萬至 180 萬噸之間，且礦山端 DAP 實現價格約在每噸 580 至 605 美元之間。

Moving to our business in South America. Despite the weather-driven fertilizer demand headwind in the fourth quarter, we delivered strong operating results with adjusted EBITDA of $111 million. Distribution business margins came in well above the historical normal annual range of $30 to $40 per tonne. In the first quarter this year, we expect margins to recede from the fourth quarter as part of the normal seasonality of the business.

接著看我們在南美的業務。儘管第四季受到天候因素造成的肥料需求逆風影響，我們仍交出強勁的營運成果，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.11 億美元。通路業務毛利高於歷史正常年度區間（每噸 30 至 40 美元）許多。今年第一季，我們預期毛利將因業務正常季節性而自第四季回落。

The first quarter of each year typically has a higher amount of fertilizer volume going to Brazil's corn crop, which demands a higher percentage of nitrogen products, which historically generate lower and less consistent margins and lower volumes of MicroEssentials, which generates higher margins. As a result, margins are generally lower during the quarter but improved from there, resulting in annual margins in line with our historic norm of $30 to $40 per tonne.

每年第一季通常有較高比例的肥料銷量用於巴西玉米作物；玉米需要較高比例的氮肥產品，而氮肥產品歷來帶來較低且較不穩定的毛利；同時 MicroEssentials 的銷量較低，而 MicroEssentials 可帶來較高毛利。因此，本季毛利通常較低，但之後會逐步改善，使全年毛利回到我們歷史常態的每噸 30 至 40 美元。

We executed well against our capital allocation strategy in 2023 and our balance sheet remains optimized. We spent $1.4 billion in CapEx and made significant progress on our investment projects. We refinanced $900 million in debt and returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through an increased dividend and share repurchases. Our returns included not only free cash flow but also proceeds from asset sales such as the sale of Streamsong Resort.

我們在 2023 年依循資本配置策略執行得當，資產負債表仍維持最佳化。我們投入 14 億美元資本支出（CapEx），並在投資專案上取得重大進展。我們為 9 億美元債務進行再融資，並透過提高股利與股票回購向股東返還 11 億美元。我們的回報不僅來自自由現金流，也包括資產出售所得，例如出售 Streamsong 度假村的收益。

Finally, I want to discuss our top strategic initiatives for 2024. First, we're focused on driving down costs. Over time, we expect to achieve at least $150 million in annual run rate savings off of a 2023 baseline, driven in part by savings from our global digital acceleration program, which will go live later this year.

最後，我想談談我們 2024 年的首要策略性倡議。第一，我們聚焦於降低成本。隨著時間推進，我們預期以 2023 年為基準，至少可達成每年 1.5 億美元的年度化節省（annual run rate savings），其中一部分將來自我們的全球數位加速計畫；該計畫將於今年稍晚上線。

Next, we'll continue to transform our operations to increase resilience and flexibility. Our top priority in phosphate is to improve our production volumes. We are working toward an annual run rate of 8 million tonnes over the next few quarters by enhancing the overall reliability and efficiency of our operations. To this end, we have a busy turnaround schedule at our Florida facilities in the first half of this year as we target areas that have caused us the most significant maintenance issues.

接著，我們將持續轉型營運，以提升韌性與彈性。我們在磷酸鹽業務的首要任務是改善產量。我們正透過提升整體營運的可靠性與效率，力拚在未來幾個季度達到年化 800 萬噸的運轉率。為此，我們今年上半年在佛羅里達廠區安排了密集的歲修（turnaround）時程，鎖定過去造成最重大維護問題的區域。

Next, we'll further expand our presence in Brazil, one of the most dynamic agricultural regions in the world by completing a 1 million tonne distribution facility at Palmeirante to serve the fast-growing northern region of the country. We'll also further strengthen our product portfolio by growing non-commodity products. We are expanding MicroEssentials capacity at our Riverview plant here in Florida, and we expect those additional tonnes later this spring.

再來，我們將透過完成位於 Palmeirante、年產能 100 萬噸的配送設施，進一步擴大我們在巴西（全球最具活力的農業區域之一）的布局，以服務該國快速成長的北部地區。我們也將透過擴大非大宗商品（non-commodity）產品來進一步強化產品組合。我們正在佛羅里達 Riverview 工廠擴增 MicroEssentials 產能，並預期在今年春末取得新增噸數。

We anticipate that more than half of our phosphate sales will be value-added products, which clearly is a differentiator for us. In addition, we are planning for the next-generation MicroEssentials Pro, which is delivering significant yield improvements in field testing. MicroEssentials Pro will also extend our patent protection until 2038.

我們預期超過一半的磷酸鹽銷售將來自加值產品，這顯然是我們的差異化優勢。此外，我們也在規劃下一代 MicroEssentials Pro；該產品在田間試驗中展現顯著的增產效果。MicroEssentials Pro 也將把我們的專利保護延長至 2038 年。

Finally, we'll remain true to our disciplined capital allocation strategy. In 2024, we expect to reduce total capital spending by about $200 million, and we'll continue to return excess cash to shareholders.

最後，我們將持續堅守嚴謹的資本配置策略。2024 年，我們預期將總資本支出降低約 2 億美元，並將持續把多餘現金回饋給股東。

To summarize, our outlook for agriculture and fertilizer markets remains positive. At Mosaic, we have a strategic road map to optimize returns through the business cycle to grow and to decommoditize our product offerings, and we have a very strong financial foundation from which to operate. I'm looking forward to updating you on our progress as the year proceeds.

總結而言，我們對農業與肥料市場的展望仍然正向。在 Mosaic，我們有一套策略路線圖，可在景氣循環中最佳化報酬、推動成長並讓產品供給去大宗化（decommoditize），同時我們也具備非常強健的財務基礎作為營運後盾。我期待在今年進行期間，持續向各位更新我們的進展。

Now let's move to Q&A.

現在我們進入問答環節。

Before we move on to the live Q&A, as we have done in the past quarters, we would like to address some of the most common questions that we received after we published our earnings materials last night. For our first question, Bruce, a number of analysts have asked questions about potash and phosphates. Market dynamics of these 2 crop nutrients seem to be diverging. With phosphates being strong, while potash is finding its way. Can you tell us how you see these markets developing as the year progresses?

在進入即時問答之前，如同過去幾個季度，我們想先回應昨晚發布財報資料後收到的一些最常見問題。第一個問題，Bruce，多位分析師詢問鉀肥與磷酸鹽。這兩種作物養分的市場動態似乎正在分歧：磷酸鹽表現強勁，而鉀肥仍在尋找方向。你能否談談你如何看待這些市場在今年後續的發展？

I think this is a good way to characterize current market conditions. Phosphate markets are very positive due to strong demand, low inventories and a tight supply situation globally, leading to some of the strongest stripping margins in the last decade. We believe stripping margins will remain elevated for the remainder of the year. Looking at the key regions, in North America, channel inventories are low, and we are seeing strong demand for spring planting. For Mosaic specifically, we continue to operate at minimum inventory levels and our first quarter sales are almost fully committed.

我認為這是對當前市場狀況很好的描述。磷酸鹽市場非常正向，原因在於需求強勁、庫存偏低，以及全球供給緊俏，帶動剝採利差（stripping margins）達到過去十年來最強勁的水準之一。我們認為剝採利差在今年剩餘期間仍將維持高檔。從主要區域來看，在北美，通路庫存偏低，我們看到春耕需求強勁。就 Mosaic 而言，我們持續以最低庫存水位運作，第一季銷售幾乎已全數承諾（committed）。

In Brazil, inventories are well below the 5-year range, and our outlook for the year remains positive as growers need to replenish soil nutrients. India's proposed subsidy rates announced earlier this month showed an increase for phosphate fertilizers from the prevailing rates in the fourth quarter of last year, but importer margins remain negative. With very strong grower demand and low inventories, which are at the low end of the 5-year range, subsidies should move higher.

在巴西，庫存遠低於 5 年區間，我們對今年的展望仍然正向，因為種植戶需要補充土壤養分。印度本月稍早公布的擬議補貼率，相較去年第四季的現行水準提高了磷酸鹽肥料的補貼，但進口商利差仍為負值。在種植戶需求非常強勁且庫存偏低（位於 5 年區間低端）的情況下，補貼應會進一步上調。

In China, we are seeing an increased focus on food security. The government is limiting exports to ensure adequate domestic supply while also meeting rising industrial demand. We expect these dynamics to continue to limit exports for the foreseeable future. Industrial demand, particularly China's lithium iron phosphate market has been very strong, with production more than tripled in the last 2 years to 1.7 million tonnes of finished fertilizer product equivalent in 2023.

在中國，我們看到對糧食安全的關注提升。政府限制出口以確保國內供應充足，同時也要滿足持續上升的工業需求。我們預期這些動態在可預見的未來仍將限制出口。工業需求，特別是中國的磷酸鐵鋰市場，一直非常強勁；過去兩年產量增加逾三倍，2023 年達到 170 萬噸（以成品肥料產品當量計）。

We expect additional production growth in the future as demand continues to sort. Overall, this leads us to conclude that phosphate markets will remain constructive for the rest of the year. In potash, the supply constraints from Belarus and Russia, seen in the past few years will continue to abate in 2024. On the demand side, we see stability in North America. In fact, our winter fill program was fully sold. And similar to phosphates, we are almost fully committed for Q1.

我們預期未來仍會有額外的產量成長，因為需求持續發酵。整體而言，這使我們得出結論：磷酸鹽市場在今年剩餘期間仍將維持建設性（constructive）。至於鉀肥，過去幾年來自白俄羅斯與俄羅斯的供給限制，將在 2024 年持續緩解。需求面方面，我們看到北美維持穩定。事實上，我們的冬季補庫計畫（winter fill program）已全數售罄。而且與磷酸鹽類似，我們第一季幾乎也已全數承諾。

In Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia and Indonesia, high-priced inventories were worked down in 2023. Two years of under application in those markets will put further strain on crop yields if nutrients are not replenished. We are seeing significant pent-up demand in that region.

在東南亞，特別是馬來西亞與印尼，2023 年高價庫存已被消化。這些市場連續兩年的施用不足，若不補充養分，將對作物產量造成更大壓力。我們在該區域看到顯著的被壓抑需求（pent-up demand）。

In China, while potash inventories are higher than historical periods, the fertilizer stock-to-use ratio is normal due to increasing on-farm demand as a result of favorable pricing. It's been reported that China intends to increase its strategic reserves meaning that inventories will have to remain higher than historical periods to meet this objective. We also expect lower Chinese domestic production as a result of the recent news capping production in its key potash basin due to environmental concerns. The combination of these factors should drive a need for continued high import volumes to meet the demand.

在中國，雖然鉀肥庫存高於歷史水準，但由於價格有利帶動農戶端需求增加，肥料庫存使用比（stock-to-use ratio）仍屬正常。據報導，中國有意提高其戰略儲備，意味著為達成此目標，庫存必須維持高於歷史水準。我們也預期中國國內產量將下降，原因是近期消息指出，出於環境疑慮，中國在其主要鉀肥盆地對產量設限。這些因素的組合，應會推動為滿足需求而持續維持高進口量。

The weather in Brazil has slowed demand in the near term but we are seeing early signs of demand emerging in potash prices moving up slightly. In fact, when you look at the entire fertilizer market, we expect shipments to be at or near peak levels in 2024. Putting these factors together, we expect the pace of global potash shipments to improve as 2024 progresses.

巴西的天候在短期內放緩了需求，但我們已看到需求浮現的早期跡象，鉀肥價格略有上升。事實上，若觀察整體肥料市場，我們預期 2024 年出貨量將達到或接近高峰水準。綜合這些因素，我們預期全球鉀肥出貨的步調將隨著 2024 年推進而改善。

Thanks, Bruce. As a follow-up question, given the market backdrop you just described, what actions are you planning to take?

謝謝你，Bruce。追問一題，基於你剛才描述的市場背景，你們計畫採取哪些行動？

Well, given the strength of phosphate markets, Mosaic focuses on increasing our phosphate production volumes and further improving our margins by increasing our MicroEssentials volumes. Getting our production to an annual run rate of 8 million tonnes, not only increases revenue, but also significantly reduces our unit costs. MicroEssentials generates significant yield improvements. And as a result, generate superior margins for farmers, retailers and Mosaic.

在磷酸鹽市場強勁的情況下，Mosaic 將聚焦於提高磷酸鹽產量，並透過提升 MicroEssentials 銷量進一步改善利潤率。將產量提升至年化 800 萬噸的運轉率，不僅能增加營收，也能顯著降低單位成本。MicroEssentials 可帶來顯著的增產效果，因此能為農民、零售商與 Mosaic 創造更優異的利潤。

For Mosaic, not only do we earn a premium margin in our phosphate segment but we also command a premium margin in Brazil as we capture the retail premium for these products. In potash, Mosaic is focusing on flexibility and cost management. The curtailment of production at our Colonsay site demonstrates our commitment to flexibly managing our network to ensure our low-cost sites at Belle Plaine and Esterhazy operate at capacity, while Colonsay is only used when market conditions dictate.

對 Mosaic 而言，我們不僅在磷酸鹽事業部賺取溢價利潤，在巴西也能因掌握這些產品的零售溢價而取得溢價利潤。至於鉀肥，Mosaic 將聚焦於彈性與成本管理。我們在 Colonsay 廠區的減產（curtailment）展現了我們彈性管理產能網絡的承諾：確保低成本的 Belle Plaine 與 Esterhazy 廠區滿載運轉，而 Colonsay 僅在市場條件需要時才啟用。

We have a couple of projects that will increase our product mix flexibility before the end of the year. This will enhance our ability to adjust our end product mix to respond to changes in the market conditions more effectively in order to optimize our cost structure and margins. In addition to cost reductions in our operations, we are focused on driving SG&A reductions and optimizing our investments in CapEx and working capital. These initiatives will ensure our customer demand is met. Our through-cycle financial performance will continue to advance and shareholder value is maximized.

我們有幾個專案將在今年底前提升產品組合的彈性。這將強化我們調整最終產品組合的能力，以更有效回應市場條件變化，進而最佳化成本結構與利潤率。除了營運端的降本之外，我們也聚焦於推動 SG&A 降低，並最佳化我們在資本支出（CapEx）與營運資金上的投入。這些倡議將確保滿足客戶需求。我們的穿越景氣循環財務表現將持續精進，並使股東價值最大化。

Our next question is related to Mosaic Fertilizantes. Brazil remains a problem-like region for many ag input companies. What is your outlook for 2024?

下一個問題與 Mosaic Fertilizantes 有關。對許多農業投入品公司而言，巴西仍是一個問題重重的地區。你對 2024 年的展望為何？

This is a fair observation. A lot of these companies are still in the process of destocking excess high-cost inventories or writing off their assets given the challenging market conditions. At Mosaic, we took early action to complete the destocking of high-priced inventory in the first half of 2023 without any significant write-offs. As a result, we entered the second half of the year in a great position and it shows in our margins. The margin per tonne in our distribution business returned to the $30 to $40 range in the third quarter and came in above that range in the fourth quarter.

這是合理的觀察。許多公司仍在去化過多的高成本庫存，或在艱困的市場條件下對其資產進行減記。Mosaic 方面，我們在 2023 年上半年即採取早期行動，完成高價庫存去化，且未發生任何重大減記。因此，我們在下半年以非常有利的態勢開局，並反映在我們的利潤率上。我們通路業務的每噸毛利在第三季回到 30 至 40 美元區間，第四季則高於該區間。

In 2024, we expect record or near record fertilizer shipments despite lower fertilizer demand in quarter 1 due to weather conditions as growers continue to be incentivized by constructive barter ratios and the need to replenish soil nutrients. From a distribution margin perspective, we expect normal seasonality on a per tonne basis, lower than the normalized annual range in the first quarter, but within the range for the full year.

在 2024 年，儘管第一季因天候因素導致肥料需求較低，我們仍預期肥料出貨量將創新高或接近新高，因為種植戶仍受到有利的易貨比（barter ratios）以及補充土壤養分需求的驅動。從通路利潤率的角度來看，我們預期每噸將呈現正常的季節性：第一季低於常態化年度區間，但全年仍將落在該區間內。

Changing topics. There's a question about CapEx. You're indicating that spending will decline by approximately $200 million this year. How do you see that CapEx evolving longer term?

換個話題。有一個關於資本支出（CapEx） 的問題。你們指出今年支出將約減少 2 億美元。你們如何看待 CapEx 在較長期的演變？

We're coming out of a period of elevated CapEx due to an unusual number of high-returning opportunity projects from across the business. We are coming to the end of these projects, and as a result, our spending is declining. In addition to the $200 million reduction in 2024, we anticipate a further reduction in 2025 with a longer-term run rate to be at or below $1 billion.

我們正走出一段資本支出偏高的時期，原因是全公司範圍內出現了異常多的高報酬機會型專案。我們即將完成這些專案，因此支出正在下降。除了 2024 年減少 2 億美元之外，我們預期 2025 年還會進一步下降，長期的常態化支出水準將在 10 億美元或以下。

Thanks, Bruce. And with that, we will now move to the open question-and-answer session. Operator, please open the line for follow-up questions.

謝謝你，Bruce。接下來我們將進入開放式問答環節。接線生，請開放線路以便進行追問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線生指示）

Today's first question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne。

Bruce, you mentioned a couple of times about the crop land needing to replenish soil nutrients. When I look at your forecast for global shipments of phosphate and potash, this is Slide 8, it doesn't really support that thesis. There's this -- what looks like potentially a massive deficit of consumption in the last 2 years of both nutrients close to 10 million tonnes on each and yet your forecast for '24 on both is just kind of like where it was in 2021. Is that a conservative view? Or was that -- is that based on a view that those nutrient levels were maybe above normal in the world, and therefore, it's not needed to be replenished?

Bruce，你提到過幾次耕地需要補充土壤養分。當我看你們對全球磷肥與鉀肥出貨量的預測（第 8 張投影片）時，似乎不太支持這個論點。過去兩年這兩種養分的消費看起來可能都有接近 1,000 萬噸的巨大缺口，但你們對 2024 年兩者的預測卻大致回到 2021 年的水準。這是比較保守的看法嗎？還是說——這是基於你們認為全球的養分水準原本就高於正常，因此不需要補充？

Steve, good talking to you. Thanks. We share your view that there's been under application of fertilizer for the last couple of years for sure, and nutrients have been depleted from the soil. I think that's why we're pretty bullish on where things return from a supply standpoint or demand standpoint on both P&K at or near record shipments in those markets. And maybe I'll turn it over to Jenny a little bit to talk maybe a little bit about the specifics in each individual market to better answer, I think what you're getting at.

Steve，很高興跟你交流，謝謝。我們同意你的看法：過去幾年確實存在肥料施用不足的情況，土壤中的養分也被消耗。我想這也是為什麼我們對磷與鉀（P&K）在供需面回到接近或達到創紀錄出貨量的市場表現相當樂觀。也許我先請 Jenny 來補充一下各個市場的具體情況，更好地回應你想問的重點。

Steve, I think we definitely don't believe that there was sufficient P&K in the soil, where would allow farmers to mine without replenish the fertilizers. We have seen the evidence over the last 2 years. And as you may recall, we shared one slide last call that would show the yield impact due to under applications, especially on potash. So why we're projecting a higher demand for 2024, partially, it is related to the supply situation.

Steve，我們確實不認為土壤中有足夠的磷與鉀（P&K），可以讓農民在不補充肥料的情況下持續「挖掘」土壤養分。我們在過去兩年已看到相關證據。而且你可能還記得，我們在上次電話會議分享過一張投影片，顯示施用不足對產量的影響，尤其是在鉀肥方面。因此，我們之所以預測 2024 年需求會更高，部分也與供給情勢有關。

We believe that the global shipment this year and beyond is that we will continue to see a very strong demand tailwind as the growers need to replenish these nutrients in order to pursue their yield aspiration. And in particular, this year, as we forecast the demand growth or recovery on potash, we are going to see some broad recovery in the market where we usually don't talk about the smaller market in Asia, the smaller market in Latin America. After 2 years under application, the farmers have realized that they need to put down, fertilizers -- P&K into the field. And that just actually has been built into our demand forecast in this year.

我們相信今年以及未來全球出貨量將持續受到強勁需求順風的支撐，因為種植戶為了追求其產量目標，需要補充這些養分。特別是今年，當我們預測鉀肥需求成長或復甦時，我們將看到市場出現更廣泛的復甦——包括我們通常較少談到的亞洲小型市場、拉丁美洲較小的市場。經過兩年的施用不足，農民已意識到需要把肥料——磷與鉀（P&K）——施到田裡，而這也已實際反映在我們今年的需求預測之中。

And our next question today comes from Richard Garchitorena with Wells Fargo.

我們今天的下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Richard Garchitorena。

Just wanted to ask, now that you have decided to curtail Colonsay, what are you expecting in terms of operational capacity for Mosaic in 2024? What levels of demand or price would you need to see to make the decision to start Colonsay? And then maybe some color in terms of the cash cost differences this year versus last year with Esterhazy up and running and Colonsay down?

我想問的是，既然你們已決定減產（curtail）Colonsay，你們預期 Mosaic 在 2024 年的營運產能會是什麼水準？你們需要看到什麼樣的需求或價格水準，才會決定重啟 Colonsay？另外，能否談談今年相較去年，在 Esterhazy 已投產運轉、Colonsay 停產的情況下，現金成本差異大概如何？

For sure, in the short term here, potash supply is adequate to meet demand. And we made the decision to curtail Colonsay's production not based on one factor. So as we continue to evaluate the flexibility within our network, we're looking at not only the market and customer demands, but also really how do we consider shareholder value as well. And I think that's getting to your point. And we'll continue to do that.

當然，短期來看，鉀肥供給足以滿足需求。我們決定減產 Colonsay 並非基於單一因素。當我們持續評估我們網絡內的彈性時，我們不僅看市場與客戶需求，也會考量如何兼顧股東價值。我想這也呼應了你的問題，我們會持續這麼做。

And at the current time, the economics just didn't make sense. But if you look at the broader 2024 for the whole year, we're very optimistic about demand recovery, particularly on potash.

而在目前的情況下，從經濟性來看並不合理。但若放眼 2024 全年，我們對需求復甦非常樂觀，尤其是在鉀肥方面。

And I'll let Jenny talk about some areas in a minute. But in the meantime, we're going to shut Colonsay down. We've done this before. We've demonstrated our resolve to flexibly moving that mine up and down. We can do that very quickly and we can restore things very quickly as well. And as we expect, when market demand returns will, in short order, return production at Colonsay.

我稍後也會請 Jenny 談一些面向。不過在此期間，我們會先關停 Colonsay。我們以前也做過這件事，並已展現我們能夠靈活地讓該礦場上調或下調產量的決心。我們可以非常快速地調整，也能很快恢復運作。正如我們所預期的，當市場需求回來時，我們將在短時間內恢復 Colonsay 的生產。

Again, if the market demand is there and if we determine shareholder value is there as well, and some of the complexities are what's going on with the rest of our network and turnaround schedules and things like that. Those things have to come into the analysis as well. But all of this is designed, as we've said earlier, to really let Belle Plaine and Esterhazy, our 2 low-cost production facilities run at full rate and continue to extract maximum value out of those 2 facilities.

再說一次，如果市場需求存在，且我們也判斷能創造股東價值，同時還要考量一些複雜因素，例如我們其餘網絡的狀況、歲修（turnaround）排程等，這些都必須納入分析。但這一切的目的，正如我們先前所說，是要讓 Belle Plaine 與 Esterhazy 這兩座低成本生產設施以滿載運轉，並持續從這兩座設施中提取最大價值。

So Jenny, maybe you want to talk about a little bit of the market dynamics and why we expect pricing to be pretty good for the rest of the year.

所以 Jenny，也許你可以談談一些市場動態，以及為什麼我們預期今年剩餘時間的價格會相當不錯。

Sure, Bruce. I think I probably just want to build on the earlier comment on the potash demand recovery. In 2023, last year, the recovery of the demand was over 13% and added 8 billion tonnes, the biggest recovery in the market was North America. We saw 27% of the demand increases over the previous year, and we are seeing very strong consumption increases in growth in China. And apart from these 2 major markets, in India and Brazil, we have all seen over 18% of the demand interests last year on potash.

好的，Bruce。我想我主要是延伸先前關於鉀肥需求復甦的評論。2023 年，也就是去年，需求復甦超過 13%，增加了 80 億噸；市場中最大的復甦來自北美，我們看到需求較前一年增加 27%，同時也看到中國的消費成長非常強勁。除了這兩個主要市場之外，印度與巴西去年在鉀肥方面的需求增幅也都超過 18%。

So as we get into 2024, we continue to expect the growth of potash demand in Brazil, in India. And we are going to see a much broader demand recovery from the other market, as I mentioned earlier, a small market in Asia, smaller market in Latin America. And all this demand projection will need to have the supply to meet the demand.

因此進入 2024 年，我們仍預期巴西與印度的鉀肥需求將持續成長。我們也將看到其他市場更廣泛的需求復甦——如我先前提到的亞洲小型市場、拉丁美洲較小的市場。所有這些需求預測都需要有供給來滿足需求。

When we look at the supply side of the equation, in late 2023, we've seen some recovery of the shipment out of Belarus and Russia and also some incremental tonnes from Laos. As we get into 2024, the season itself, we are in the typical low season time, and we are watching the market dynamics. And we believe we are at or close to the price bottom in the market. In fact, we have seen some major price recovery over the last 2 weeks in Brazil.

從供給面來看，在 2023 年底，我們看到白俄羅斯與俄羅斯的出貨有所恢復，也看到寮國新增了一些增量噸數。進入 2024 年，季節性上我們正處於典型淡季，我們也在觀察市場動態。我們相信市場價格已在或接近底部。事實上，過去兩週我們已在巴西看到一些主要的價格回升。

So as Bruce mentioned earlier, we run our business, our potash operation to meet our customers' demand. And in the meantime, we want to maximize value creation for the shareholders as well. So that's the economic decision.

因此，如 Bruce 先前所提，我們經營鉀肥業務是為了滿足客戶需求；同時，我們也希望為股東最大化價值創造。所以這是一個基於經濟性的決策。

And our next question today comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場（BMO Capital Markets）的 Joel Jackson。

You said that phosphate margins should have been elevated. You talk about how strong phosphate is. Can you comment on that a bit more? Do you expect in Q1 that phosphate margins would be better, the same or lower than Q4 margins? And would that be an EBITDA or gross margin basis on other basis?

你提到磷肥利潤率本應處於較高水準，也談到磷肥市場有多強。你能再多評論一下嗎？你預期第一季磷肥利潤率會比第四季更好、相同，還是更低？另外，你指的是 EBITDA、毛利率，還是其他口徑？

Joel, thanks for your kind words. On phosphates, listen, the bottom line is supply is extremely tight. And we've talked about that balance. And even as much as demand, if you theoretically could go higher, it is going to be tough to reach supply with the restrictions out of China and the things that we talked about in one of the fireside chat questions.

Joel，謝謝你的肯定。就磷肥而言，重點是供給非常吃緊。我們也談過這個供需平衡。即使理論上需求還能更高，但在中國出口限制以及我們在某個爐邊談話（fireside chat）問題中提到的那些因素之下，要讓供給跟上會很困難。

So that is driving pretty good stripping margins in this business. Some of the best we've seen over the last decade. And we do expect that to continue. We may see pricing bubble a little bit just due to seasonality throughout the year but we do believe our realized stripping margins, given raw material pricing on sulfur and ammonia and what we have projected for the year will continue to stay relatively flat and strong for the remainder of the year.

因此，這正在推動本業務相當不錯的加工利差（stripping margins），是我們過去十年所見最好的水準之一，而且我們預期這種情況會持續。由於全年季節性因素，我們可能會看到價格略有波動，但我們相信，考量硫磺與氨等原料價格，以及我們對全年所做的預測，我們實現的加工利差將在今年剩餘時間維持相對平穩且強勁。

And our next question today comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews。

Can I just ask about on the phosphate production side, what you're anticipating coming out of Morocco this year? It seemed like they ran at lower rates last year. Are you expecting that to continue into this year? And what are you expecting in terms of imports into the U.S. market year-over-year, given, I guess, there's still some uncertainty over countervailing duties, but an update on those issues would be helpful.

我想請教一下磷酸鹽生產方面，你們預期今年摩洛哥那邊的產量會如何？看起來他們去年是以較低的開工率運行。你們預期今年也會延續這種情況嗎？另外，就進口到美國市場的量而言，你們預期年對年會如何變化？我想目前對反補貼稅仍有一些不確定性，如果能就這些議題提供最新進展會很有幫助。

Yes, Vincent, thanks and good talking to you today. It's something we watch pretty closely is what's going on in that part of the world, as you can imagine. Jenny and her team and our market analysis team and economic team are really looking at that. So I'm going to turn it over to her to provide a little more detail on the commentary.

是的，Vincent，謝謝你，也很高興今天和你交流。正如你所想像的，我們非常密切關注世界那個地區正在發生的事情。Jenny 和她的團隊，以及我們的市場分析團隊與經濟團隊，都在深入研究。因此我把問題交給她，請她就相關評論提供更多細節。

Yes, I think we've been watching very closely on OCP's shipment. Last year, we've seen some major recovery of their phosphate fertilizer export especially in the second half of the year.

是的，我想我們一直非常密切地關注 OCP 的出貨情況。去年我們看到他們的磷肥出口有明顯復甦，尤其是在下半年。

This is basically bring their export towards to their record level over the last few years. In the meantime, we are seeing some major reduction on their phosphate rock export last year. And that was actually less than half of the tonnes they exported in the record year back in 2021. And therefore, asset exports were basically very flat. So to think about OCP supply into 2024, our forecast is that they're going to continue to keep the normal way of operation and they might add a little bit into their new granulation capacity, but not really in the big deal. So even with this recovered OCP supply and the -- increased a small amount of fertilizer production, we believe 2024 phosphate supply will stay as tight.

這基本上使他們的出口回到過去幾年接近創紀錄的水準。與此同時，我們也看到他們去年磷礦石出口大幅下降，實際上不到他們在 2021 年創紀錄那一年出口噸數的一半。因此，資產出口基本上非常持平。展望 OCP 在 2024 年的供給，我們的預測是他們將持續維持正常的營運方式，可能會在新增造粒產能上略有增加，但不會是什麼大幅度的變化。所以即便 OCP 供給已經復甦、肥料產量也小幅增加，我們仍認為 2024 年的磷酸鹽供給會維持緊俏。

And our next question today comes from Edlain Rodriguez with Mizuho.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞穗（Mizuho）的 Edlain Rodriguez。

I mean, Bruce, you've talked about like the strength of phosphate prices which is clearly the case. But any concerns that if prices stay way above the other nutrients, like this could incentivize farmers to cut back in phosphate if they start thinking about their expenses and so forth given the decline in crop prices?

我是說，Bruce，你談到磷酸鹽價格的強勢，這顯然是事實。但你們是否擔心，如果價格長期遠高於其他養分，這可能會促使農民在作物價格下跌的情況下，開始考量支出而減少磷肥用量？

The economic on the farm topic is a great one and something, again, we're paying a lot of attention to. With soy and corn being -- I'm sorry, soybeans and corn prices are right now, we do see still pretty affordable economics overall, when you look at the portfolio of nutrients, right? And that's -- NP&K. And even though phosphate because of the tight supply that Jenny has outlined before, and we talked about one of the fireside questions, prices are elevated, but we have seen potash come down significantly and nitrogen at a more moderate level as well.

農場端的經濟性是一個很好的議題，而且同樣地，我們也非常關注。以目前大豆和玉米的價格來看——抱歉，是大豆與玉米的價格——當你看整體養分組合時，我們仍然認為整體經濟性相當可負擔，對吧？也就是氮、磷、鉀（NP&K）。即使如 Jenny 先前所說，由於供給緊俏，磷酸鹽價格偏高，而且我們在爐邊談話的提問中也提到過，但我們看到鉀肥價格已大幅回落，氮肥也處於較為溫和的水準。

So combined, I think fertilizer affordability from a percentage of on-farm revenue is actually pretty reasonable compared to the last 2 years. So we're not anticipating any demand destruction and due to pricing of the total nutrient package for farmers depending on their crops. And the other one that we talked about it in some of our materials is we've made a lot about corn and soybean prices, but corn and soybean demand is really only 30% of the global fertilizer demand.

因此綜合來看，我認為以農場收入的百分比衡量，肥料的可負擔性相較過去兩年其實相當合理。所以我們不預期會因為農民整體養分套裝的定價（取決於他們種植的作物）而出現需求被破壞的情況。另一點我們在一些資料中也談到：我們常常聚焦玉米和大豆價格，但玉米與大豆的需求其實只占全球肥料需求的 30%。

The rest, 70% is in other grain and oilseeds and non-grain and oilseeds markets. And we're seeing a lot of tightness in some of those markets and actually quite favorable economics when it comes to nutrient affordability.

其餘 70% 來自其他穀物與油籽，以及非穀物與油籽的市場。我們在其中一些市場看到供給相當緊俏，而且就養分可負擔性而言，經濟性其實相當有利。

So overall, I think the competitiveness of nutrients and demand is there. The incentive is there. Again, driven by lack of fertilization in the last couple of years, good affordability, the tailwinds that are being provided on some of the biofuel stuff as well. I think it's very constructive that hopefully, ag commodity prices continue to moderate up and then continue to drive good demand to maximize yields on the farm. Jenny has got one more point she wants to make.

所以整體而言，我認為養分的競爭力與需求都在，誘因也在。再一次，這是由過去幾年施肥不足、良好的可負擔性，以及生質燃料相關因素所帶來的順風所驅動。我認為這是非常正向的，希望農產品價格能持續溫和回升，進而帶動良好需求，讓農場端能最大化單位產量。Jenny 還有一點想補充。

Yes. I just want to -- Bruce, I just want to provide one more data point. As we are watching corn soybean prices and all the cases were on corn, soybean. And if you look at other major ag commodities like rice, the price is very, very supportive. And today, actually, in fact, today, India export price for rice is setting a new record. So that tells you, actually, if you go beyond corn, soybeans, the other commodities are very constructive in terms of the prices and also the farm economics.

是的。我只是想——Bruce，我想再提供一個數據點。我們在觀察玉米、大豆價格時，很多情境都聚焦在玉米與大豆。但如果你看其他主要農產品，例如稻米，價格非常、非常有支撐。事實上，就在今天，印度的稻米出口價格創下新高。這其實告訴你，如果不只看玉米與大豆，其他商品在價格與農場經濟性方面都相當正向。

And our next question today comes from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場（RBC Capital Markets）的 Andrew Wong。

So on the phosphate production, what's your expectation on when you could return to an 8 million-tonne annual run rate? And when that happens, what's your expectation on phosphate rock cost and conversion cost?

關於磷酸鹽生產，你們預期何時可以回到年化 800 萬噸的運行率？當達到那個水準時，你們對磷礦石成本與轉化成本的預期是什麼？

Andrew, thanks. We've been talking about this for a few quarters, and it's a big focus area for us strategically, particularly given the strong margins that are in the market today, given the high demand, limited supply. We have stated and continue to state that we're on our path over the next few quarters to get to an 8 million-tonne annual run rate. We're confident in that.

Andrew，謝謝。我們已經談這件事好幾個季度了，這也是我們在策略上非常聚焦的重點領域，特別是考量到目前市場上強勁的利潤率——需求高、供給有限。我們已經表示並且持續表示：我們正沿著既定路徑，在接下來幾個季度內達到年化 800 萬噸的運行率。我們對此有信心。

Last year, second half of the year, we had some impacts with two of our large sulfur plants in Louisiana went down. Both of those have now returned to service. We had a major turnaround at the end of last year and another sulfur plant down at Bartow. Again, both of those are done and back to service. So we are starting to see gradually a return to that.

去年下半年，我們在路易斯安那州的兩座大型硫磺工廠停機，對我們造成了一些影響。這兩座目前都已恢復運轉。去年底我們進行了一次大型歲修，另外 Bartow 也有一座硫磺工廠停機。同樣地，這些都已完成並恢復運轉。所以我們正逐步看到回升。

But as mentioned in some of the fireside chat comments, we do have a heavy turnaround schedule baked into the first half of this year. So getting to that 2 million tonne level more towards the end of the year, part of that is with this turnaround schedule to continue to focus on some of those actors that have caused us some maintenance -- unplanned maintenance issues over the last couple of years.

但如同我們在一些爐邊談話的評論中提到的，今年上半年我們已排入相當密集的歲修計畫。因此，要回到 200 萬噸（季度）水準會更偏向在年底；其中一部分原因就是透過這個歲修排程，持續聚焦於過去幾年造成我們一些維修——非計畫性維修——問題的那些因素。

So again, confident we're going to get there by the end of the year. It's needed. And that's what we're going to continue to do is focus on our asset health. And we've been infusing a lot of our sustaining CapEx, by the way, to actually do that over the last 2 years as well. So look forward to that near the end of the year. And Clint has something to add, I think, on the economics piece.

所以再說一次，我們有信心在年底前達成。這是必要的。我們會持續做的就是專注於資產健康。順帶一提，過去兩年我們也投入了大量維持性資本支出（sustaining CapEx）來做到這一點。因此期待在接近年底時看到成果。我想 Clint 也會就經濟性部分補充幾點。

Yes. No, thanks, Bruce. Andrew, when we look at the impact of moving our production back up to that target level, I think on a cost-per-tonne basis, and I think that was part of your question, you would likely see something on the order of magnitude of, call it, $20 to $25 a tonne improvement in that per unit cost. So it's material as we begin to ramp up to those target levels.

是的。不，謝謝，Bruce。Andrew，當我們看把產量拉回到目標水準的影響時，我想就每噸成本（cost-per-tonne）而言——我想這也是你問題的一部分——你很可能會看到每單位成本大約改善 20 到 25 美元/噸的量級。因此，當我們開始爬升到那些目標水準時，這個改善是相當顯著的。

Thanks, Clint. And even on top of that, Andrew, we've talked about our cost reduction initiatives just in addition to that, but we expect to layer in $150 million of cost reductions through the enterprise. Looking at G&A spending, some of the operations benefits of getting back to full production, working capital management and then just overall CapEx reduction. So adding to the absorption benefits that Clint talked about, plus some of these other initiatives to really wring out cost from the enterprise, through-cycle economics should be much more favorable.

謝謝，Clint。Andrew，除此之外，我們也談過成本削減計畫；在此之外，我們預期在全公司層面疊加 1.5 億美元的成本降低。這包括檢視一般與管理費用（G&A）支出、恢復滿載生產所帶來的一些營運效益、營運資金管理，以及整體資本支出（CapEx）降低。所以在 Clint 提到的吸收效益之上，再加上這些其他措施，真正從企業中擠出成本，穿越景氣循環的經濟性應會更為有利。

And our next question today comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I was wondering if you can clarify some issues around your relationship with Ma'aden. Is that a joint venture that you wish to invest in over time further through capacity expansion? It's also the case that historically, the cash that's to come from the equity income has been much lower. Is there a cash benefit that you get in the future that catches you up from the equity income that you've made? Or does it turn out that you don't catch up?

我想請你們釐清一些與 Ma'aden 關係相關的議題。那是一個你們希望隨時間透過擴產而進一步投資的合資企業嗎？另外，歷史上來自權益法收益（equity income）的現金流入一直低很多。未來你們是否會取得某種現金利益，讓你們能追上已認列的權益法收益？還是說最後其實不會追上？

Jeff, no, thanks. As you point out, that joint venture for us is an important part of our portfolio of assets for sure, not only do we gain market access in the markets like India with some of the tonnes that we have there. We get a lot of market intelligence through that joint venture as well. As far as do we have interest in future investment, I don't think that's in the top of our priority list. I never want to say never, depending on what the return on economics could be in such an investment.

Jeff，不，謝謝。正如你指出的，那個合資企業對我們而言確實是資產組合中很重要的一部分；我們不僅透過那裡的一部分噸數，在像印度這樣的市場取得市場進入機會，我們也透過該合資企業獲得大量市場情報。至於未來是否有意願再投資，我不認為那是我們優先事項清單的最前面。我不想把話說死，這要看此類投資的經濟報酬可能會是什麼。

But I think we've got better focus areas for any of our cash and liquidity that we may put to something else. But at the end of the day, the Ma'aden joint venture at Saudi Arabia has been a great partnership, and we've seen that really mature over the course of this relationship. And it got to continue to earn a spot in our portfolio for sure, on a long-term basis, but right now, we're fairly happy with the results and where that is running. They just came off a record year at MWSPC on a production standpoint as well. So we're really starting to extract value out of that in the way that we hadn't previously. But I'm going to turn it over to Clint to talk about a little bit more on the economic questions that you had.

但我認為，對於我們可能用於其他用途的任何現金與流動性，我們有更值得聚焦的領域。不過歸根結底，沙烏地阿拉伯的 Ma'aden 合資企業一直是很棒的合作夥伴關係，我們也看到這段合作關係在過程中真正成熟。從長期來看，它肯定會持續在我們的投資組合中占有一席之地；但就目前而言，我們對成果以及目前的運行狀況相當滿意。他們在 MWSPC 的產量表現也剛結束一個創紀錄的年度。因此，我們真的開始以過去未曾有過的方式，從中萃取價值。不過我先把時間交給 Clint，請他針對你提出的一些經濟面問題再多談一點。

I think you noted the differential between the equity earnings over time and cash. I think our first cash dividend was actually paid out last year. I think total equity income last year for us was roughly $57 million. So we did get part of that in the form of a dividend. But one of the things that has been the focus of Ma'aden over the past, say, 2 to 3 years, has been on debt reduction.

我想你提到了權益法收益隨時間與現金之間的差異。我想我們第一次收到現金股利其實是在去年。去年我們的權益法收益總額大約是 5,700 萬美元，所以我們確實以股利形式拿到其中一部分。不過，Ma'aden 在過去大概 2 到 3 年的重點之一，是降低負債。

So a lot of the earnings and the cash generation of the joint venture has actually gone to paying down some of the debt load. And I think overall, order of magnitude, debt has been paid down by about $1.5 billion, so firming up the capital structure of the project.

因此，合資企業的許多獲利與現金創造，實際上都用於償還部分債務負擔。我想整體量級來看，債務大約已償還 15 億美元，從而強化了該專案的資本結構。

And so I think that's one of the main reasons why you see that differential between equity earnings and actually cash being paid out to us and the partners. One thing to also note, and again, it's relatively modest, but we also do get marketing fees and earn some level of income on some of the tonnes that we do sell. But again, that's one of the reasons why you've seen that differential between equity earnings and cash because a lot of the cash has actually been going to managing the balance sheet and paying down debt.

所以我認為，這是你看到權益法收益與實際支付給我們及合作夥伴的現金之間存在差異的主要原因之一。另外也要注意一點——同樣地，金額相對不大——我們也會收取行銷費，並且在我們銷售的部分噸數上賺取一定程度的收入。但再次強調，你看到權益法收益與現金之間的差異，其中一個原因是大量現金其實用於管理資產負債表與償還債務。

Our next question comes from Rikin Patel with BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自 BNP Paribas 的 Rikin Patel。

You covered the guidance CapEx quite well earlier, but I was wondering if you could provide some outlook on the working capital requirement for 2024. I suppose, just given the context of the significant release you had last year, would you expect to see working capital investment next year?

你先前已經把資本支出（CapEx）指引講得很清楚了，但我想請你提供一下 2024 年營運資金需求的展望。我想在去年你們有相當顯著的營運資金釋放的背景下，你們是否預期明年會看到營運資金的投入？

Working capital has been, if I understood your question right, broke up a little bit in the beginning for me. It has been a focus for us across all of our major markets. I think we've done a pretty good job of managing that risk compared to others in the space. But I'm going to turn it over to Clint to maybe talk a little bit more about how we think about working capital.

如果我理解你的問題沒錯，剛開始你的聲音有點斷斷續續。營運資金一直是我們在所有主要市場的重點。我認為相較於同業，我們在管理這項風險方面做得相當不錯。不過我先把時間交給 Clint，請他多談一點我們如何看待營運資金。

Yes. Thanks, Bruce, and thanks for the question, Rikin. As you noted, over the last couple of years, we've seen pretty significant changes in working capital. And a lot of that has been driven by the price environment. So you saw a significant increase in working capital and use of cash in 2022. And then you've seen a pretty material release of cash in '23 as a pricing environment changed.

好的。謝謝你，Bruce，也謝謝你的提問，Rikin。如你所說，過去幾年我們看到營運資金出現相當顯著的變化，而其中很大一部分是由價格環境所驅動。因此你在 2022 年看到營運資金大幅增加、現金使用增加；而在 2023 年，隨著定價環境改變，你又看到相當可觀的現金釋放。

A lot of times, one of the things that is also a significant contributor to that is our distribution business in Brazil as they manage inventory levels and so forth around some of those price changes. But as we look out, I think it's going to be driven by the price environment. I think we are putting some renewed focus on things like inventory turns. And days of payables and receivables and really trying to work even harder to manage those to, again, manage the level of working capital that's needed.

很多時候，另一個對此有顯著貢獻的因素，是我們在巴西的分銷業務，因為他們會圍繞這些價格變動來管理庫存水位等。但展望未來，我認為仍將由價格環境所驅動。我們也重新加強對庫存周轉率、應付帳款與應收帳款天數等項目的關注，並且更努力地管理這些指標，以再次控制所需的營運資金水準。

The other thing that I would note is, over the last couple of years, we've tried to set up some funding alternatives to assist us in managing through some of those seasonal, particularly seasonal elements of working capital needs. So we've had a number of things like an inventory lines and receivable securitization facilities put in place when we got our rating -- debt rating upgrade to BBB flat, BAA2. We also set up a commercial paper facility. And what we try to do is to maintain a certain level of funding to, again, take away some of those seasonal moves and to reduce some of the cash drag on the company throughout the year.

另外我想補充的是，過去幾年我們也嘗試建立一些替代性融資方案，協助我們因應某些季節性——尤其是季節性——的營運資金需求。因此，在我們的評等——債信評等——上調至 BBB flat、BAA2 之後，我們建立了多項安排，例如庫存融資額度與應收帳款證券化融資工具。我們也設立了商業本票（commercial paper）融資機制。我們的做法是維持一定水準的資金來源，以再次消弭部分季節性波動，並降低公司全年現金被占用的拖累。

So again, focusing on those 2 areas. One is just the absolute level of working capital. And again, that will be dictated by price environment, but then also being -- trying to be pretty thoughtful on how we fund that through the year and not just be using cash for that purpose.

所以再次強調，我們聚焦兩個面向：第一是營運資金的絕對水準——而這將由價格環境所決定；第二是我們也會非常審慎地思考如何在全年為其提供資金，而不是僅僅為此動用現金。

And our next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Josh Spector。

So I wanted to follow up on phosphate margins specifically. I think versus most models out there, pricing came in higher, but gross margins were lower in the fourth quarter. So I'm just trying to square the sequential gross margin move, if we think about in gross margin per tonne in the fourth quarter -- or sorry, first quarter here because you're saying the stripping margin stays high, but pricing, you're guiding up $40. We talked about more volume leverage in the first quarter. So is there a way to square all these moving parts between what you did in the fourth quarter versus what you're expecting from a gross margin per tonne perspective in the first quarter?

我想特別追問磷酸鹽利潤率。我認為相較於多數模型，價格表現更高，但第四季的毛利率卻更低。所以我想釐清毛利率的季比變動：如果我們看第四季——抱歉，應該是第一季，因為你們說剝離（stripping）利潤率仍維持高檔，但你們的價格指引上調 40 美元。我們也談到第一季會有更多的量能槓桿。因此，有沒有辦法把這些變動因素串起來，說明你們第四季的表現與你們對第一季每噸毛利的預期之間，如何對得上？

Yes, Josh, thanks. I think we are seeing a little bit of expansion there. For sure, the other part is our costs aren't going to necessarily come down as fast, given the turnaround schedule I talked about earlier. So that's still going to be a little bit of a drag. But overall, we still see those healthy realized stripping margins. You got to think about -- and I'm going to turn it over to Clint in a minute, maybe talk a little bit more about it, but our advantaged position on ammonia and our access to low-cost sulfur really kind of differentiates us a little bit from the industry stripping margin, what we get on a realized stripping margin, given that a good portion of our ammonia consumption comes from our Faustina facility in-house. And of course, our advantage contract with CF. So we do still think stripping margins are going to be good. Gross margins realized will be good but maybe given the cost pressures, we're still going to see a little bit of a slowness in full recovery of that. And Clint, maybe you can talk a little bit more about that.

好的，Josh，謝謝。我認為我們確實看到那裡有一些擴張。當然，另一部分是，考量我先前提到的檢修（turnaround）排程，我們的成本不一定會那麼快下降，所以這仍會帶來一些拖累。但整體而言，我們仍看到健康的已實現剝離利潤率。你必須考慮——我等一下也會把時間交給 Clint，請他再多談一些——我們在氨方面的優勢地位，以及取得低成本硫磺的管道，確實讓我們與產業的剝離利潤率有所差異；就我們的已實現剝離利潤率而言，原因在於我們相當一部分的氨消耗來自我們自有的 Faustina 廠內供應，當然還有我們與 CF 的優勢合約。因此，我們仍認為剝離利潤率會維持良好；已實現的毛利也會不錯，但可能因為成本壓力，全面回升仍會稍微慢一些。Clint，你可以再多談一點。

Yes. The only thing that I would add on that around our in-house ammonia is we made -- we had, I guess, a turnaround about 18 months ago in Louisiana around -- made some investments in our converter at the facility. And it's -- as a result, it's had much higher reliability.

好的。關於我們自產氨，我唯一想補充的是，我們——大概在 18 個月前——在路易斯安那州那座設施進行過一次檢修，並在廠內的轉化器（converter）上做了一些投資。結果是，它的可靠度高了很多。

And again, as we've seen the level of production that we've had, we've been able to lean on that a little bit more as a proportion of our ammonia sourcing as well as the CF contract. So we've been less dependent on some of the market purchases. And as a result, as an example, in the fourth quarter, about 35% of our ammonia was actually sourced in-house. And again, so that's helpful from a comparative cost standpoint.

同樣地，隨著我們目前的產量水準，我們能在氨的採購來源占比上更倚重自產供應以及 CF 合約，因此我們對市場採購的依賴降低了。舉例來說，在第四季，我們大約 35% 的氨實際上是由內部自產供應。這在相對成本方面確實有幫助。

So as we go forward, as production ramps back up, overall finished product production ramps back up, we'll need to access a little bit more on the market. But again, in this environment at this point in time, we're getting more benefit maybe than we naturally historically have from our in-house production of ammonia.

因此，往後隨著產量回升、整體成品產量回升，我們將需要在市場上採購更多。但在目前這個環境與時間點，我們從自產氨所獲得的效益，可能比我們歷史上自然會有的水準更大。

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Bruce Bodine for any closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Bruce Bodine，請他做結語。

Well, thank you, operator. To conclude our call, I'd like to reiterate our key messages for today. First, the global phosphate market, as we've discussed, is very strong, and we expect favorable dynamics to continue throughout the remainder of the year. And second, potash demand is emerging and we've talked about that, and we expect a strong rebound in global demand this year.

好的，謝謝主持人。為了總結今天的電話會議，我想重申我們今天的幾個關鍵訊息。第一，如我們所討論的，全球磷酸鹽市場非常強勁，我們預期有利的供需動態將在今年剩餘時間持續。第二，鉀肥需求正在浮現，我們也談到了這點，我們預期今年全球需求將強勁反彈。

And third, we are executing plans to optimize our operations so that we can benefit fully from strong markets while improving Mosaic's resilience. And finally, our capital allocation strategy is not changing. We will invest in pursuit of compelling returns and return excess cash to shareholders. So thanks, everyone, for joining our call today, and I hope that you have a great and safe day.

第三，我們正在執行計畫以最佳化營運，讓我們能在改善 Mosaic 韌性的同時，充分受惠於強勁的市場。最後，我們的資本配置策略不會改變。我們將投資於具吸引力回報的機會，並把多餘現金回饋給股東。謝謝各位今天參與我們的電話會議，祝各位有美好且平安的一天。

Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝您，先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線，祝您有美好的一天。