美盛公司 (MOS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Mosaic Company's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Your host for today's call is Paul Massoud, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A of the Mosaic Company. Mr. Massoud, you may begin.

早上好，歡迎來到美盛公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天電話會議的主持人是美盛公司投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁保羅·馬蘇德。馬蘇德先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and welcome to our first quarter 2023 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Q&A. Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Senior Vice President, Global Strategic Marketing, will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎來到我們 2023 年第一季度的財報電話會議。總裁兼首席執行官 Joc O'Rourke 將發表開幕評論；其次是問答環節。高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Clint Freeland；全球戰略營銷高級副總裁 Jenny Wang 也將回答您的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

我們將在本次電話會議期間發表前瞻性聲明。這些報表包括但不限於關於未來財務和經營結果的報表。它們基於管理層截至今日的信念和預期，並受到重大風險和不確定性的影響。實際結果可能與預期結果存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的因素包含在我們昨天發布的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。

We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

我們還將介紹某些非 GAAP 財務措施。我們的新聞稿和業績數據還包含有關這些非 GAAP 措施的重要信息。現在我想把電話轉給 Joc。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our first quarter 2023 earnings call. Mosaic delivered revenues of $3.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $777 million and adjusted earnings of $1.14 per share. The fundamentals of the agriculture market remain quite attractive. Global stock-to-use ratios for grain and oilseeds are at 25-year lows. To put that in context, it would take 2 to 3 years of perfect weather and adequate fertilizer applications in every major growing region around the world just to get back to normal levels.

早上好。感謝您加入我們 2023 年第一季度的財報電話會議。 Mosaic 的收入為 36 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.77 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 1.14 美元。農業市場的基本面仍然頗具吸引力。全球穀物和油籽的庫存使用比處於 25 年來的最低水平。換句話說，全球每個主要種植區需要 2 到 3 年的完美天氣和充足的肥料才能恢復正常水平。

With weather patterns shifting to an El Nino environment, the likelihood of that happening is low and would be exacerbated by under fertilization. We are beginning to see the negative impacts on crop production. Yields in the European Union turned lower in 2022 because of poor weather and under fertilization and will remain under pressure this year if fertilizer applications remain down.

隨著天氣模式轉向厄爾尼諾環境，發生這種情況的可能性很低，而且會因施肥不足而加劇。我們開始看到對作物生產的負面影響。由於天氣惡劣和施肥不足，歐盟的單產在 2022 年有所下降，如果施肥量繼續下降，今年的單產將繼續承壓。

We're seeing a similar story in rice. The combination of El Nino and under fertilization could further threaten yields in key growing regions. With reduced supply of sunflower seed oil because of the ongoing war in Ukraine, the global market needs alternative edible oils and is looking to palm oil as an important substitute. Lack of fertilization, particularly potash, will impact Southeast Asian production. All of these factors are expected to support global crop prices for the foreseeable future.

我們在大米中看到了類似的故事。厄爾尼諾和施肥不足的結合可能進一步威脅主要種植區的產量。由於烏克蘭戰爭持續導致葵花籽油供應減少，全球市場需要替代食用油，並將棕櫚油視為重要替代品。缺乏施肥，尤其是鉀肥，將影響東南亞的生產。在可預見的未來，所有這些因素都有望支撐全球農作物價格。

Switching to fertilizer markets, farmer affordability for phosphates and potash globally is very good with prices that are much more sustainable than the levels we saw a year ago. This is bringing growers back into the market, though supply constraints are still a concern. In potash, Belarusian exports remain limited because of sanctions. We've seen volumes move by rail into China and, to a lesser extent, through excess Russian port capacity, but transportation costs are high, and total exports remain well below pre-sanctioned levels. This year, we expect total exports from Belarus to be roughly 7 million tonnes. In addition, we also continue to see indications of reduced Russian product as well.

轉向肥料市場，全球農民對磷酸鹽和鉀肥的負擔能力非常好，價格比我們一年前看到的水平更具可持續性。這使種植者重返市場，儘管供應限制仍然是一個問題。在鉀肥方面，由於製裁，白俄羅斯的出口仍然有限。我們已經看到貨物通過鐵路進入中國，並在較小程度上通過俄羅斯過剩的港口運力進入，但運輸成本很高，總出口量仍遠低於製裁前的水平。今年，我們預計白俄羅斯的總出口量約為 700 萬噸。此外，我們還繼續看到俄羅斯產品減少的跡象。

It is clear that today's potash market is tight and supply chain is under pressure, but this extends beyond just Belarus and Russia. This vulnerability is highlighted by the recent failure of the walkway on a conveyor Canpotex 4 million tonne per year Portland terminal. Canpotex is still assessing the total damage, but expects to redirect much of the lost volume to other North American ports, albeit at some additional cost.

很明顯，今天的鉀肥市場吃緊，供應鏈面臨壓力，但這不僅僅局限於白俄羅斯和俄羅斯。波特蘭碼頭每年輸送 400 萬噸 Canpotex 的人行道最近發生故障，凸顯了這一漏洞。 Canpotex 仍在評估總損失，但預計會將大部分損失的貨物轉移到其他北美港口，儘管會產生一些額外費用。

In Phosphates, China remains committed to a structural shift away from exports. While it's possible to see a modest increase in exports over the 2022 total of 6.4 million tonnes. Domestic fertilizer demand, rising industrial consumption and environmental restrictions will cap China's shipments to other markets. These supply constraints remain even as demand in our key customer markets is seeing a recovery.

在磷酸鹽方面，中國仍致力於從出口轉向結構性轉變。雖然有可能看到出口量在 2022 年 640 萬噸的總量上略有增加。國內肥料需求、工業消費上升和環境限制將限制中國對其他市場的出貨量。即使我們的主要客戶市場的需求正在復蘇，這些供應限制仍然存在。

In North America, spring planting season is well underway, and farmers have returned to the market, though retailers have been slow to adjust their prices to global wholesale market prices. Despite that resistance, growers are still committing and taking tonnes. Retailers are replenishing their inventories. In April, Mosaic's volumes saw a significant rebound in the North American shipments for both potash and phosphate. Combined, Mosaic shipped over 1 million tonnes of potash and phosphates to North American customers in April alone.

在北美，春季播種季節正在順利進行，農民已重返市場，但零售商在根據全球批發市場價格調整價格方面進展緩慢。儘管存在阻力，種植者仍在承諾並採收數噸。零售商正在補充庫存。 4 月份，Mosaic 的北美鉀肥和磷酸鹽出貨量出現顯著反彈。僅在 4 月份，Mosaic 就向北美客戶運送了超過 100 萬噸的鉀肥和磷酸鹽。

This is the highest total we've seen in the last 5 years. In Brazil, the barter ratio is supportive of demand, and we expect commitments for the third quarter to ramp up with prepays for fertilizer ahead of the softer season. We expect Brazil will see a 9% to 10% increase in fertilizer shipments in 2023 over last year.

這是我們在過去 5 年中看到的最高總數。在巴西，以貨易貨的比率支撐了需求，我們預計第三季度的承諾將增加，在較軟的季節之前預付肥料。我們預計 2023 年巴西化肥出貨量將比去年增長 9% 至 10%。

In India, inventories for potash remain depleted as all purchases are going straight to the ground. After a year of reduced potash applications, a potash contract was signed in April at a price of $422 per tonne. In addition to providing necessary supply to Indian farmers, the contract helps stabilize global pricing. In Southeast Asia, with the shortfall in edible oils globally, the palm market is driving strong demand. Globally, we're seeing good farmer economics, which suggest strong demand for phosphates and potash in 2023.

在印度，鉀肥庫存仍處於枯竭狀態，因為所有採購都直接運往地面。經過一年的鉀肥申請減少後，鉀肥合同於 4 月以每噸 422 美元的價格簽訂。除了向印度農民提供必要的供應外，該合同還有助於穩定全球價格。在東南亞，由於全球食用油短缺，棕櫚油市場正在推動強勁的需求。在全球範圍內，我們看到良好的農民經濟狀況，這表明 2023 年對磷酸鹽和鉀肥的需求強勁。

Given this landscape, we believe our business is well positioned to benefit from today's market conditions. In Phosphates, after 2 years of production issues caused by multiple hurricanes, raw material shortages and other issues, the segment's performance has improved. Volumes during the quarter were higher than any quarter in 2022, and our stripping margins also benefited from lower raw materials costs. We expect both of these trends to continue in 2023.

鑑於這種情況，我們相信我們的業務處於有利地位，可以從當今的市場條件中受益。在磷酸鹽方面，在經歷了 2 年因多次颶風、原材料短缺和其他問題導致的生產問題後，該板塊的業績有所改善。本季度的銷量高於 2022 年的任何一個季度，我們的剝離利潤率也受益於較低的原材料成本。我們預計這兩種趨勢將在 2023 年繼續。

In the second quarter, we anticipate total sales volumes of 1.8 million to 2 million tonnes with DAP FOB prices at the plant in the range of $550 to $600 per tonne. In Potash, volumes began to move over the last week of the first quarter, and that has continued into the second quarter, especially in North America. We expect demand to continue recovering throughout the year. Our operations at Esterhazy and Belle Plaine are performing well. Esterhazy is one of the most efficient mines in the world, and Belle Plaine should see benefit from lower natural gas costs in 2023.

在第二季度，我們預計總銷量為 180 萬至 200 萬噸，工廠的 DAP FOB 價格在每噸 550 至 600 美元之間。在 Potash，銷量在第一季度的最後一周開始上升，並且一直持續到第二季度，尤其是在北美。我們預計全年需求將繼續復甦。我們在 Esterhazy 和 Belle Plaine 的運營表現良好。 Esterhazy 是世界上效率最高的礦山之一，Belle Plaine 應該會在 2023 年受益於較低的天然氣成本。

At Esterhazy, the last of the 13 miners is expected to come online later this year. In total, Esterhazy's annual operational run rate should increase from 5.5 million tonnes last year to well over 6 million tonnes by the end of 2023. We're committed to producing enough potash to meet market demand. With the incremental output from Esterhazy, we believe we're producing what the market needs, which means we'll only restart Colonsay when it's needed. We don't think this will be before the second half of the year.

在 Esterhazy，13 名礦工中的最後一名預計將於今年晚些時候上線。總的來說，到 2023 年底，Esterhazy 的年運營率將從去年的 550 萬噸增加到遠超過 600 萬噸。我們致力於生產足夠的鉀肥以滿足市場需求。憑藉 Esterhazy 的增量產出，我們相信我們正在生產市場需要的產品，這意味著我們只會在需要時重啟 Colonsay。我們認為這不會在今年下半年之前發生。

In the second quarter, we expect total sales volumes of 2 million to 2.2 million tonnes with MOP prices at the mine in the range of $325 to $375 per tonne. In Brazil, first quarter results reflected the impact of declining prices and inventory destocking. As we said in February, we expected our Q1 results to be impacted by destocking of high-priced inventory. And now that is largely behind us.

在第二季度，我們預計總銷量為 200 萬噸至 220 萬噸，礦山的氯化鉀價格在每噸 325 美元至 375 美元之間。在巴西，第一季度業績反映了價格下跌和去庫存的影響。正如我們在 2 月份所說，我們預計我們的第一季度業績將受到高價庫存去庫存的影響。而現在這在很大程度上已經過去了。

Looking ahead, we expect distribution margins to trend back towards the range of $30 to $40 a tonne. In the second quarter, 90% of those tonnes are already committed and priced. Finally, I want to reiterate that we are committed to our capital allocation strategy of maintaining a strong balance sheet, investing in our business and returning capital to shareholders. We've met our commitment of reducing long-term debt by $1 billion. As such, we expect to refinance the $900 million that matures later this year.

展望未來，我們預計分銷利潤率將回到每噸 30 至 40 美元的範圍內。在第二季度，其中 90% 的噸位已經承諾並定價。最後，我想重申，我們致力於維持強勁的資產負債表、投資於我們的業務並將資本返還給股東的資本配置戰略。我們已經履行了將長期債務減少 10 億美元的承諾。因此，我們預計將為今年晚些時候到期的 9 億美元進行再融資。

Our CapEx spending expectation this year remains unchanged at $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion. We're focused on high returning modest spend projects like our distribution facility in [Pamaranche], expansion of MicroEssentials at Riverview and the exploration of purified phosphoric acid. Beyond that, all excess free cash flow will be returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

我們今年的資本支出預期保持在 13 億至 14 億美元不變。我們專注於高回報的適度支出項目，例如我們在 [Pamaranche] 的配送設施、在 Riverview 擴展 MicroEssentials 以及探索純化磷酸。除此之外，所有多餘的自由現金流將通過股息和股票回購返還給股東。

During the quarter, we returned $608 million, which included $456 million of share repurchases and $152 million in special and regular dividends. Over the last 18 months, we've repurchased 15% of our float and still believe our shares represent very good value. Our regular dividend today is $0.80 per share, and our business positions us to consider further increases over time.

本季度，我們返還了 6.08 億美元，其中包括 4.56 億美元的股票回購和 1.52 億美元的特別股息和定期股息。在過去的 18 個月裡，我們回購了 15% 的流通股，並且仍然相信我們的股票代表著非常好的價值。我們今天的定期股息為每股 0.80 美元，我們的業務使我們能夠考慮隨著時間的推移進一步增加。

Before we move to the Q&A, let me summarize. The global ag market remains constructive. Grain and oilseed supplies are tight, and growers are incented by favorable economics to apply nutrients. We are already seeing the recovery in shipments in North America and expect the rest of the world to follow. Our production operations are performing well. Phosphate production has recovered, and potash is benefiting from the most efficient mines in the world with swing capacity available to meet demand growth.

在我們進入問答環節之前，讓我總結一下。全球農產品市場仍然具有建設性。穀物和油籽供應緊張，有利的經濟形勢促使種植者施用養分。我們已經看到北美出貨量的複蘇，並預計世界其他地區也會跟進。我們的生產運營表現良好。磷酸鹽生產已經恢復，鉀肥正受益於世界上最高效的礦山，這些礦山擁有可滿足需求增長的周轉產能。

Our balance sheet is strong and sustainable over the long term, and we remain committed to returning significant capital to shareholders while continuing to invest efficiently in the business. With that, I'd like to move on to the Q&A portion of the call.

從長遠來看，我們的資產負債表強勁且可持續，我們仍然致力於向股東返還大量資本，同時繼續對業務進行有效投資。有了這個，我想繼續通話的問答部分。

Before we move on to live Q&A, as we've done in past quarters, we'd like to address some of the most common questions we received after we published our earnings materials last night.

在我們繼續進行現場問答之前，就像我們在過去幾個季度所做的那樣，我們想解決一些我們在昨晚發布收益材料後收到的最常見問題。

Joc, the first question that we received was, how do we see ag markets evolving over the rest of 2023?

Joc，我們收到的第一個問題是，我們如何看待 2023 年剩餘時間內農業市場的發展？

Thank you. While there has been recent volatility in the agricultural markets, the fundamentals remain strong. We're starting with a 25-year low stock-to-use ratio for grains and oilseeds. Now much has been made of Brazil's larger-than-expected crop, but offsetting that is problems in the Argentinian, Europe, Asia and others who are suffering from lower yields due to weather and under fertilizations.

謝謝。儘管近期農產品市場出現波動，但基本面依然強勁。我們的穀物和油籽庫存使用比處於 25 年來的最低水平。現在巴西的收成高於預期，但抵消了阿根廷、歐洲、亞洲和其他國家因天氣和施肥不足而單產下降的問題。

Then as we look at going forward, this year's El Nino and under fertilization brings up a real risk to the 2023 ag markets. Now weather is always a known uncertainty. But as we've seen in recent past, extreme weather events that negatively impact ag production seem to have become more commonplace. Longer term, we do continue to see great potential for demand growth from biofuels, including an increased call on oilseeds to feed renewable diesel production as well as the enormous potential for sustainable aviation fuel.

然後，當我們展望未來時，今年的厄爾尼諾現象和施肥不足給 2023 年的農業市場帶來了真正的風險。現在天氣總是一個已知的不確定性。但正如我們最近看到的那樣，對農業生產產生負面影響的極端天氣事件似乎變得越來越普遍。從長遠來看，我們確實繼續看到生物燃料需求增長的巨大潛力，包括對油籽用於可再生柴油生產的需求增加以及可持續航空燃料的巨大潛力。

We also believe that biofuel use will continue to rise in the medium term even as cars transition towards electrification. To sum up, there is a rational basis for ag commodity prices to have eased off in recent weeks. However, there is strong fundamentals for ag bullishness .

我們還認為，即使汽車向電氣化過渡，生物燃料的使用在中期仍將繼續增加。綜上所述，近幾週農產品價格回落具有合理基礎。然而，ag 看漲有很強的基本面。

Joc, a follow-on to the ag markets question. How do we see what you just said impacting fertilizer markets over the rest of this year?

Joc，農業市場問題的後續問題。我們如何看待您剛才所說的對今年剩餘時間化肥市場的影響？

Well, thank you. I'd like to start by saying what we're seeing in North America demonstrates just how strong the market could be this year. If we look at North America in the months of March and April, those were both very strong months and up about 20% from where we were probably last year. So, if I look forward there, I expect that will carry over to a stronger season in Brazil once the [SAFRA] application gets started, and then it will continue for Asia and other regions. Now I'm going to turn it over to Jenny to give a little more detail on the supply and demand of the fertilizer markets.

嗯，謝謝。首先，我想說一下我們在北美看到的情況表明今年市場的強勁程度。如果我們看看 3 月和 4 月的北美市場，那兩個月都是非常強勁的月份，比去年可能增長了 20% 左右。因此，如果我在那裡展望未來，我預計一旦 [SAFRA] 申請開始，這將延續到巴西的一個更強勁的季節，然後亞洲和其他地區將繼續如此。現在我將把它交給珍妮，讓她更詳細地介紹化肥市場的供需情況。

Sure, Joc. Let me start from phosphate. The export control out of China is going to continue as the country is going through phosphate industry shift from production on fertilizers to industrial products. The Chinese government is going to continue to ensure their farmers to have affordable and available fertilizers in country for their own production. The export restriction is going to continue to be in place. We believe this year, the export out of China will be somewhere between 7 million to 8 million tonnes.

當然，喬克。讓我從磷酸鹽開始。隨著中國正在經歷磷酸鹽行業從化肥生產向工業產品生產的轉變，對中國的出口管制將繼續進行。中國政府將繼續確保他們的農民在國內有負擔得起的可用化肥用於他們自己的生產。出口限制將繼續存在。我們相信今年中國的出口量將在 700 萬噸到 800 萬噸之間。

With the tight supply of phosphate and the rebounding demand, we believe this is a very constructive margin environment for phosphate.

隨著磷酸鹽供應緊張和需求反彈，我們認為這對磷酸鹽來說是一個非常有建設性的利潤率環境。

Turning over to potash. Export out of Belarus last year had significantly reduced from 12 million tonnes to 5 million tonnes. This year, despite multiple export corridors being utilized by Belarus, we still don't believe that they have opportunity to export over 8 million tonnes out of Belarus. And the production out of Russia is continuously under the risk. On the demand side, as Joc mentioned, we are seeing a very strong spring season in North America.

轉向鉀肥。去年白俄羅斯的出口量從 1200 萬噸大幅減少到 500 萬噸。今年，儘管白俄羅斯使用了多條出口走廊，但我們仍然認為他們沒有機會從白俄羅斯出口超過 800 萬噸。俄羅斯的生產一直處於風險之中。在需求方面，正如 Joc 提到的，我們看到北美的春季非常強勁。

In the market when spring application have started, we're seeing a bigger volume went to fill and we have seen price appreciation in the market. And in the market in Northern plants, where the spring season are still ongoing, we have started to get inquiries from our customers for their summer fill demand. This demand to summer fill and for applications are indicating a strong and robust demand for the full season in North America. We believe what is happening in North America is going to happen in a market like Brazil, where they are going to prepare for their incoming seasons, and we believe they will engage soon. With strong demand in Asia, we believe the buyers will reengage and the price and volumes will respond positively.

在春季申請開始的市場上，我們看到更大的成交量被填補，我們看到市場價格上漲。在春季仍在繼續的北部工廠市場，我們已經開始收到客戶關於夏季灌裝需求的詢盤。這種對夏季灌裝和應用的需求表明北美對整個季節的需求強勁。我們相信北美正在發生的事情將發生在像巴西這樣的市場，他們將為即將到來的季節做準備，我們相信他們很快就會參與進來。由於亞洲需求強勁，我們相信買家將重新參與，價格和數量將做出積極反應。

Thank you, Jenny. The next question is a follow-on to what we just talked about. Given this constructive outlook on the fertilizer markets, can you explain your thinking behind the guidance for pricing and volume, particularly for Potash?

謝謝你，珍妮。下一個問題是我們剛才談到的問題的後續問題。鑑於肥料市場的這種建設性前景，您能否解釋一下定價和數量指導背後的想法，尤其是鉀肥？

Thank you. In Potash, we guided to a normal quarter in North America and a conservative view of the export market. Early quarter demand in North America is stronger than we would have expected and certainly stronger than normal. And history would say that the strong North American market will be followed in other markets such as Brazil and Asia. If this occurs, there is certainly upside to both potash volume and price. We have seen over and over again that once volumes move, price follows.

謝謝。在鉀肥方面，我們對北美的正常季度和對出口市場的保守看法進行了指導。北美第一季度的需求比我們預期的要強勁，而且肯定比正常情況下要強勁。歷史表明，強勁的北美市場將緊隨巴西和亞洲等其他市場。如果發生這種情況，鉀肥的銷量和價格肯定會有上行空間。我們一再看到，一旦成交量變動，價格就會隨之變動。

Joc, our next question is on Mosaic (inaudible) results. Could you provide more color on the quarter and how you see the performance of the segment evolving over the rest of the year?

Joc，我們的下一個問題是關於馬賽克（聽不清）結果。您能否提供有關本季度的更多信息，以及您如何看待該細分市場在今年剩餘時間裡的表現？

Thank you. In the distribution business, the lead time to position products is quite long. As such, when the second half volumes were lower than we expected, we ended the year with high-priced inventory. Now we have sold most of this higher cost inventory down and expect the rest of the year to be much more normal. Transitioning between cycles can temporarily expand or contract margins, but true cycle margins remain unchanged.

謝謝。在分銷業務中，定位產品的前置時間相當長。因此，當下半年的銷量低於我們的預期時，我們以高價庫存結束了這一年。現在我們已經將大部分成本較高的存貨賣掉了，預計今年剩餘時間會更加正常。週期之間的過渡可以暫時擴大或收縮利潤率，但真正的周期利潤率保持不變。

For example, in quarter 4 of 2022 and quarter 1 of 2023, distribution margins were below historic levels, but they will return as market stability is achieved. Distribution margins in second quarter to the fourth quarter will be in the $30 to $40 range when averaged together.

例如，在 2022 年第 4 季度和 2023 年第 1 季度，分銷利潤率低於歷史水平，但隨著市場穩定，它們將恢復。第二季度至第四季度的分銷利潤率平均在 30 美元至 40 美元之間。

Joc, one other thing that I would note that I think is important in this discussion is that we use average cost accounting for the cost of inventory in Brazil. And what that means is that as prices -- sales prices are moving either up or down, the average cost of inventory that we're recognizing in our results is moving a little slower than that market price. And as a result, during increasing price environment, you'll see expanding margins. During declining price environment, you'll see declining margins.

Joc，我要指出的另一件事，我認為在這次討論中很重要的是，我們使用平均成本核算巴西的庫存成本。這意味著隨著價格——銷售價格上漲或下跌，我們在結果中認識到的平均庫存成本比市場價格上漲得慢一些。因此，在價格上漲的環境中，您會看到利潤率不斷擴大。在價格下跌的環境中，您會看到利潤率下降。

But that's why over the course of the year, we will see margins in the target range that we've talked about. But quarter-to-quarter, as market prices are moving, you can see a level of volatility in results.

但這就是為什麼在這一年中，我們將看到我們談到的目標範圍內的利潤率。但按季度來看，隨著市場價格的變化，您可以看到結果存在一定程度的波動。

Thank you, Joc, Clint and Jenny. Operator, let's move on to the live portion of the call.

謝謝你，喬克、克林特和珍妮。接線員，讓我們繼續通話的實時部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Christopher Parkinson。

Could you just give us a real quick update on how we should be thinking about your phosphate strip margins just across Florida rock cost, processing where sulfur is trending relative to last year as well as your ammonia mix? Just any insights on how that should affect phosphate margins throughout the balance of the year would be incredibly helpful.

你能不能給我們一個真正的快速更新，關於我們應該如何考慮你的磷酸鹽剝離利潤率，就在佛羅里達州的岩石成本中，處理硫磺相對於去年的趨勢以及你的氨混合物？任何關於這將如何影響全年餘下的磷酸鹽利潤率的任何見解都將非常有幫助。

Chris, if we look at how we're projecting, I guess, stripping margins for the rest of the year, you will have seen that the raw material prices have declined in the last while. And obviously, I think I've talked before, the sulfur, it takes 0.4 of a tonne of sulfur basically to make a tonne of DAP and about 0.2 of a tonne of ammonia. So those moves, which have been quite material, have allowed -- even though the price of phosphates has come down in time, the actual margins have stayed relatively constant throughout that period.

克里斯，如果我們看看我們是如何預測的，我想，今年剩餘時間的剝離利潤率，你會發現原材料價格在過去一段時間有所下降。顯然，我想我之前已經說過，硫，基本上需要 0.4 噸硫來製造一噸 DAP 和大約 0.2 噸氨。因此，這些非常重要的舉措已經允許 - 即使磷酸鹽價格及時下降，實際利潤率在整個期間保持相對穩定。

And we see those margins staying relatively constant through the rest of the year. If we look at our cost of our actual inputs, rock and conversion, our rock costs were driven a little higher this quarter basically because of a lower volume throughout the quarter, probably due to both -- well, more than anything due to the grade of the area we've been mining through.

我們看到這些利潤率在今年餘下時間保持相對穩定。如果我們看一下實際投入、岩石和轉換的成本，本季度我們的岩石成本略高，主要是因為整個季度的產量較低，可能是由於這兩個原因——好吧，最重要的是由於等級我們一直在挖掘的區域。

And then if we look at conversion costs, those have been impacted by higher variable and fixed costs such as electricity and process chemicals. For the balance of 2023, we believe our maintenance and capital assets that we've invested in should really improve both volumes and costs as we move forward.

然後，如果我們看一下轉換成本，就會發現這些成本受到更高的可變成本和固定成本的影響，例如電力和工藝化學品。對於 2023 年的餘額，我們相信我們投資的維護和資本資產應該在我們前進的過程中真正改善數量和成本。

Our next question comes from Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

Your price for potash for the second quarter looks like it's roughly $75 a tonne more than historical levels and yet it sounds like Jenny's comments would suggest that potash is the one that is going to be more curtailed in supply in 2023 as opposed to your FOB DAP forecast is a couple of hundred dollars higher than historical prices.

你們第二季度的鉀肥價格看起來比歷史水平高出大約每噸 75 美元，但聽起來 Jenny 的評論表明鉀肥是 2023 年供應量將比你們的 FOB DAP 更受限制的鉀肥預測比歷史價格高出幾百美元。

So my question is, what is fundamentally different here between P and K that would lead potash pricing to be generally weaker? Is it a reflection of second-tier price coming out of Russia?

所以我的問題是，P 和 K 之間有什麼根本不同會導致鉀肥定價普遍走弱？是否反映出俄羅斯的二線價格？

Okay. Thanks, Steve. Yes, let me go through a couple of points there. I think what I said earlier in the prepared questions or whatever the early questions still holds, which is when we were setting up the quarter and doing our preparation for this, you're talking a couple of weeks ago, we hadn't seen fully the impact of what we would see in April and May -- or sorry, March and April. We're seeing that come in better than we expected.

好的。謝謝，史蒂夫。是的，讓我通過幾個要點。我想我之前在準備好的問題中所說的，或者早期的問題仍然存在，那是在我們設置季度並為此做準備的時候，你說的是幾週前，我們還沒有完全看到我們將在 4 月和 5 月看到的影響——或者抱歉，3 月和 4 月。我們看到這比我們預期的要好。

So from a volume perspective, we're pretty confident that, that guidance is at least very realistic and probably even we could see upside on that. In terms of pricing, it's all about combination of what's going to which market. For instance, it's product mix, whether we're selling the standard-grade product to some of the foreign markets where the prices are, a, lower and the transport is higher. But then secondly, how much is coming from North America, which is a strong market and a good -- both good pricing and a relatively lower transport.

因此，從數量的角度來看，我們非常有信心，該指導至少是非常現實的，甚至我們可能會看到上行空間。在定價方面，這完全取決於將進入哪個市場的產品的組合。例如，它是產品組合，我們是否將標準級產品銷售到價格較低且運輸成本較高的一些國外市場。但其次，有多少來自北美，這是一個強大的市場和良好的價格和相對較低的運輸。

And then Brazil, which really hasn't started yet. So as we end the North American spring and move into the -- or wind down the North American spring and move into the quarter, our question is going to be, does Brazil come in to replace the higher cost -- or the higher priced North American product? Or do we get more of a balance on other exports?

然後是真正還沒有開始的巴西。因此，當我們結束北美春季並進入 - 或結束北美春季並進入該季度時，我們的問題是，巴西是否會取代成本較高 - 或價格較高的北方美國產品？還是我們在其他出口方面取得了更多的平衡？

In which case, it just makes it a little hard to come up with a real good forecast for those prices. But I think that the comment you make is more than valid. There is definite tightness in the potash market. We're seeing it probably strongest through North Africa. We're seeing it strong in Europe. And I think we're going to see the impacts of it in Asia. So our view is they have to step up soon and start buying and the price will follow.

在這種情況下，很難對這些價格做出真正好的預測。但我認為你的評論是有道理的。鉀肥市場明顯吃緊。我們看到它可能在北非最強。我們在歐洲看到它很強勁。我認為我們將看到它在亞洲的影響。所以我們的觀點是他們必須盡快加強並開始購買，價格將隨之而來。

Our next question comes from Ben Theurer from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Actually, a good follow-up just on the price development and like long term versus short term. So if you think about all the comments you made around the structure challenges and obviously, the tightness, potash, you just reiterated, but still prices are not coming up that much. So maybe help us understand a little bit that in context prices being soft, but then at the same time, you do consider some of capacity increases towards the back half of the year. So just to understand a little bit the rationale behind the volume you plan to put in additionally, given where prices are?

實際上，這是對價格發展的一個很好的跟進，比如長期與短期。因此，如果你考慮一下你圍繞結構挑戰所做的所有評論，顯然，緊縮，鉀肥，你剛剛重申，但價格仍然沒有上漲那麼多。因此，也許可以幫助我們了解一點，在價格疲軟的情況下，但與此同時，您確實考慮了今年下半年的一些產能增加。因此，考慮到價格，您只是想稍微了解一下您計劃額外投入的數量背後的理由？

Yes, sure. So if I'm going through potash, again, it's the same story. First, we're going to see North America. We didn't see a strong -- although we don't sell to it, we didn't see a strong European market. But very quickly, we're going to turn over to Brazil and Latin America, that market should start moving. The softer season starts basically at the start of the third quarter, if you will. So they have to be moving product towards the end of this quarter.

是的，當然。因此，如果我再次經歷鉀肥，那也是同樣的故事。首先，我們要去北美。我們沒有看到強勁的——雖然我們不賣給它，但我們沒有看到強勁的歐洲市場。但很快，我們將轉向巴西和拉丁美洲，該市場應該開始移動。如果你願意的話，較溫和的季節基本上從第三季度開始。因此，他們必須在本季度末移動產品。

So June, let's say, it's -- things have to start moving to get product in place in time. Now we're coming into the year. And I think one thing that has to be understood is there was some pretty severe overshoot last year. Price went high, usage went way down. And I think we're seeing an overshoot downwards right now. And so it's not following fundamentals. But long term, it has to. So Brazil and the rest of Latin America will start moving.

所以 6 月，比方說，事情必須開始移動，以便及時將產品到位。現在我們進入了這一年。而且我認為必須理解的一件事是去年有一些非常嚴重的超調。價格上漲，使用率下降。而且我認為我們現在正在看到向下過度。所以它沒有遵循基本原則。但從長遠來看，它必須。因此，巴西和拉丁美洲其他國家將開始行動。

China has a very similar season to North America. And while they are getting more product from Belarus and Russia across from rail, they're still going to have to buy potash. So all of that stuff starts moving. Asia has to move. They need their staples like rice to grow. Indonesia, Malaysia needs the palm oil. So all of those start moving. We think it's still a constrained market. And the short-term -- sentiment drives short-term, fundamentals drive the longer term. So we think right now, it's just sentiment driven.

中國的季節與北美非常相似。雖然他們從鐵路對面的白俄羅斯和俄羅斯獲得了更多產品，但他們仍將不得不購買鉀肥。所以所有這些東西都開始移動。亞洲必須行動起來。他們需要大米等主食才能生長。印度尼西亞、馬來西亞需要棕櫚油。所以所有這些都開始移動。我們認為這仍然是一個受限的市場。而短期——情緒驅動短期，基本面驅動長期。所以我們現在認為，這只是情緒驅動的。

The next question comes from Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong。

Just a couple of questions on phosphate for me. What are your expectations for Phosphate segment production run rate? Can we get back to what -- historically, we've seen kind of 2 million, 2.2 million tonnes per quarter coming out of that segment. And then just a question on the Q2 pricing guidance. Yesterday, we kind of saw U.S. NOLA DAP prices drop down to kind of like the low 500s. How does that factor into the price guidance for Q2?

對我來說只有幾個關於磷酸鹽的問題。您對磷酸鹽板塊的生產運行率有何預期？我們能否回到過去——從歷史上看，我們已經看到該部門每季度有 200 萬、220 萬噸的產量。然後只是關於第二季度定價指南的問題。昨天，我們看到美國 NOLA DAP 價格跌至 500 美元左右。這如何影響第二季度的價格指導？

I'll let Jenny talk a little bit about summer fill and whatnot. But let me start by the run rate. I think, realistically, our run rate has probably been a lot closer to 8.5 million tonnes per year since we shut down the Plant City operation. So 2.2 million is probably at the top end. I think a good quarter for us will now run probably 2 million to 2.1 million tonnes, but we would expect an average probably in that range as we go forward if everything is running well.

我會讓珍妮談談夏天的充實之類的。但讓我從運行率開始。我認為，實際上，自從我們關閉 Plant City 運營以來，我們的運行率可能已經接近每年 850 萬噸。所以 220 萬可能處於最高端。我認為對我們來說一個好的季度現在可能會達到 200 萬噸到 210 萬噸，但如果一切運行良好，我們預計隨著我們前進的平均水平可能會在這個範圍內。

We've had -- as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we have had weather-related issues. Hurricane Ian shut us down for a fair bit, caused some real problems. So we think that, that number of, say, 8.5 is a better run rate than, let's say, 9 to 9.5 with all things sort of settled and looking at the possibilities. Let me talk -- get Jenny to talk a little bit. I think what you're talking about is summer fill pricing on phosphate. So let me get Jenny to talk about that.

我們已經 - 正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們遇到了與天氣相關的問題。颶風伊恩讓我們停工了一段時間，造成了一些實際問題。所以我們認為，8.5 的運行率比 9 到 9.5 的運行率要好，所有事情都已經解決並正在研究可能性。讓我談談——讓珍妮談談。我想你說的是磷酸鹽的夏季補價。所以讓我讓珍妮談談這個。

Sure. Andrew, I believe the numbers that you talked about was DAP NOLA barge price. We noticed that as well. And as some of the trade publications reported, the lower prices may be driven by the incoming import vessels the traders play on the index setting. So that's what we learned, and that happened many times in the past. It does not necessarily represent the real market value.

當然。安德魯，我相信你談到的數字是 DAP NOLA 駁船價格。我們也注意到了這一點。正如一些貿易刊物所報導的那樣，較低的價格可能是由貿易商在指數設置中使用的進港進口船隻推動的。所以這就是我們學到的東西，這在過去發生過很多次。它不一定代表真實的市場價值。

As we go through this index setting, we will see the real value to be reflected for summer fill. Having said that, it is very normal for the market like North America, after spring season, we will see -- we might see a price reset. It happened usually in every year, but the price eventually is going to be supported by fundamentals as we discussed earlier.

當我們完成這個索引設置時，我們將看到夏季填充物要反映的實際值。話雖如此，對於像北美這樣的市場來說，這是非常正常的，春季過後，我們將會看到——我們可能會看到價格重置。它通常每年都會發生，但正如我們之前討論的那樣，價格最終將受到基本面的支撐。

Lastly, we want to remind ourselves, when we say phosphate market, it is a very constructive margin environment. As the raw material prices coming down, there are some pull through to the phosphate prices as well.

最後，我們想提醒自己，當我們說磷酸鹽市場時，這是一個非常有建設性的保證金環境。隨著原材料價格的下降，磷酸鹽價格也受到一定的拉動。

And just don't forget the ever -- never ending logistics issues. I'm not convinced that product coming in through NOLA certainly isn't going to get there in time for most of spring. So it is about summer fill, not about spring demand. And as you know, the flooding in the Upper Mississippi has meant that's actually been shut down for a while or was.

並且不要忘記永遠 - 永無止境的物流問題。我不相信通過 NOLA 進入的產品肯定不會在春季的大部分時間及時到達那裡。所以這是關於夏季的補給，而不是春季的需求。如您所知，密西西比河上游的洪水意味著它實際上已經關閉了一段時間或曾經關閉過。

Our next question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

I did a bit of history, and I went back to some of the presentations you gave in November of 2020 when you're presenting kind of your look of all the segments going forward. So look at the Fertilizantes one. And the Fertilizantes one you talked about transformation 1.0, transformation 2.0, where you can maybe add $200 million to $300 million of earnings to Brazil to Fertilizantes by a different synergies, transformations, whatever.

我做了一些歷史，然後我回到了你在 2020 年 11 月所做的一些演講，當時你展示了你對未來所有細分市場的看法。所以看看 Fertilizantes 一個。還有你談到轉型 1.0、轉型 2.0 的 Fertilizantes，你可以通過不同的協同效應、轉型等方式，為巴西的 Fertilizantes 增加 2 億至 3 億美元的收入。

Now -- and that was off the base you're achieving, you were achieving $30 to $40 a tonne margins in 2019, 2020 already, and that's the guidance you're giving now a steady state. So I guess my question is, what's happened to all those opportunities to where you're now guiding to a $35 tonne margin, the same margins you achieved in '19 and '20 before you launched all these initiatives?

現在——這超出了你正在實現的基礎，你已經在 2019 年和 2020 年實現了每噸 30 到 40 美元的利潤率，這就是你現在給出的穩定狀態的指導。所以我想我的問題是，所有這些機會發生了什麼，你現在引導到 35 美元的利潤率，這與你在啟動所有這些計劃之前在 19 年和 20 年實現的利潤率相同？

Let me start -- thanks, Joel. Let me start by saying that is the distribution margin that we're referring to there. And it's important to kind of think about that in terms of the overall. If you think last year, I think, in distribution, we sold approximately -- was it 6 million tonnes of distribution tonnes? So 6.5 million tonnes of distribution tonnes at -- I think it was about $60 on average. So if you think about that, that's contributing $200 million of the $1 billion.

讓我開始——謝謝，喬爾。首先讓我說這是我們指的分配利潤。從整體上考慮這一點很重要。如果你認為去年，我認為，在分銷方面，我們銷售了大約 - 是 600 萬噸分銷噸嗎？所以 650 萬噸分配噸——我認為平均約為 60 美元。因此，如果您考慮一下，那將貢獻 10 億美元中的 2 億美元。

And I know I'm probably adding to the confusion of how hard it is to estimate what Brazil looks like. But the distribution business itself is a pretty small piece of the overall. We make about $100 million a year of co-product sales, and we make the majority from our actual production business, selling our MAP and feed, TSP and SSP.

而且我知道我可能會增加對估計巴西的樣子有多難的困惑。但分銷業務本身只佔整體的一小部分。我們每年的副產品銷售額約為 1 億美元，其中大部分來自我們的實際生產業務，銷售我們的 MAP 和飼料、TSP 和 SSP。

So those are the ones that are really -- and right now, that market is moving pretty slowly. We're in an off season. And so what we're seeing is a more than usual impact on margin by that distribution business, if you will. So I don't think anything is inconsistent with what we said in 2020.

所以那些才是真正的——而現在，這個市場的發展非常緩慢。我們正處於淡季。因此，如果您願意的話，我們看到的是該分銷業務對利潤率的影響比平常更大。所以我認為沒有什麼與我們在 2020 年所說的不一致。

Our next question comes from Richard Garchitorena from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Richard Garchitorena。

Just wanted to touch on the guidance for pricing in the second quarter. The range reflecting a higher percent of lower-priced export sales. Any reason for that in terms of why more lower-cost sales if demand is picking up in April and you're seeing it as well in May?

只想談談第二季度的定價指導。該範圍反映了較高的低價出口銷售百分比。如果需求在 4 月份回升並且您在 5 月份也看到了，為什麼會出現更多低成本銷售？

Yes. Thank you, Richard. Do you want to take that, Jenny?

是的。謝謝你，理查德。你要拿那個嗎，珍妮？

Yes. I think it's -- I just want to remind what Joc mentioned. The guidance for the second quarter for potash price, it is a mix of different markets between North America and export market. And in the export market, there are a mix of different grades for different destinations. So for example, the price to Brazil are -- can be very different than the price to go to India because of the freight differences and also the grade differences.

是的。我認為是——我只是想提醒一下 Joc 提到的內容。第二季度鉀肥價格指導，是北美和出口市場之間不同市場的混合。在出口市場上，針對不同的目的地混合了不同的等級。因此，例如，由於運費差異和等級差異，到巴西的價格可能與去印度的價格有很大不同。

So as we forecast the second quarter, this is a combination of different price, different product grade and different market. Very strong North America price, we believe it is going to be carried over into our second quarter. The mix of the market will have impact in the guidance.

因此，正如我們預測的第二季度，這是不同價格、不同產品等級和不同市場的結合。非常強勁的北美價格，我們相信它將延續到我們的第二季度。市場的組合將對指導產生影響。

Yes. Let me reiterate. I think somebody, may have been Steve Byrne mentioned that is this the aggressive behavior of the Russians and the Belarusians? And yes, in a very -- in the -- in a less robust market, which we've been in for the first part of the quarter, they have a bigger impact. So in the export market, right now, they're being quite aggressive. And they're having a bigger impact. But recognize they can't keep producing enough to impact the markets once they really start moving.

是的。讓我重申一下。我想有人，可能是 Steve Byrne 提到過，這是俄羅斯人和白俄羅斯人的侵略行為嗎？是的，在一個非常 - 在 - 在一個不太強勁的市場中，我們在本季度的第一部分一直處於這種狀態，它們會產生更大的影響。所以在出口市場上，現在，他們非常積極。他們正在產生更大的影響。但要認識到，一旦他們真正開始行動，他們就無法繼續生產足以影響市場的產品。

The next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Edlain Rodriguez。

I mean, Joc, a quick question on philosophy. In the past 12, 18 months, I mean, potash prices have peaked and have come down really hard. Like is there anything that Mosaic or Canpotex or the industry could have done to mitigate that volatility? I mean this is something that has happened before where potash prices get to those high levels only to come down really hard very quickly.

我的意思是，Joc，一個關於哲學的快速問題。在過去的 12、18 個月裡，我的意思是，鉀肥價格已經達到頂峰，並且已經大幅回落。就像 Mosaic 或 Canpotex 或行業可以做些什麼來減輕這種波動一樣？我的意思是，這是以前發生過的事情，鉀肥價格達到如此高的水平後，很快就會非常艱難地回落。

Like is there a better way to "manage the pricing?" I mean, yes, potash is a commodity, but it doesn't really have the same cost push aspect like nitrogen does with natural gas. I mean, potash is supposed to be different. Any insight you can provide in there like what's going on there?

比如有沒有更好的方法來“管理定價”？我的意思是，是的，鉀肥是一種商品，但它並沒有真正像氮氣那樣具有與天然氣相同的成本推動作用。我的意思是，鉀肥應該是不同的。您可以在那裡提供任何見解，比如那裡發生了什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Edlain. And look, from our perspective, the huge price peak, the quick drop back down is certainly not how you'd like to see the markets perform. We were saying that last year, and I wouldn't change my view on that at all. If you think back to -- and you got to almost think back to the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where you had -- for instance, President Bolsonaro of Brazil was in Canada asking for more product, you had him in Russia talking to Putin looking for more potash. You have this huge almost panic run on potash and phosphates as they're trying to make sure they had enough for the season.

是的。謝謝，埃德蘭。從我們的角度來看，巨大的價格峰值、快速回落肯定不是您希望看到的市場表現。去年我們就這麼說了，我根本不會改變我的看法。如果你回想——你幾乎要回想起俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的開始，你在那裡——例如，巴西總統博爾索納羅在加拿大要求更多的產品，你讓他在俄羅斯談話普京尋找更多的鉀肥。在鉀肥和磷酸鹽試圖確保他們有足夠的本季時，你幾乎會恐慌地搶購鉀肥和磷酸鹽。

And the price got to the point where it was literally, at least from a psychological perspective, unaffordable. So people talked about, we talked about as a potash holiday. Well, now you're seeing virtually the opposite where you still in some markets and some of the retailers are trying to sell their high-priced product. They're resistant on dropping their prices to the market.

而且價格達到了字面意思，至少從心理角度來看，是無法承受的。所以人們談論，我們談論鉀鹽假期。好吧，現在你看到的實際上是相反的，你仍然在一些市場上，一些零售商正試圖銷售他們的高價產品。他們拒絕向市場降價。

So now you see overshoot on the downside. And yes, unfortunately, it's kind of that system. It's a -- the highs were too high and now the lows are probably too low. It will balance out again just like it did in '09, but we have to get through the first phase of it. What could we have done differently? We were aware of the risk. And we've -- I think we talked about that risk in some of these meetings even.

所以現在你看到了下行的超調。是的，不幸的是，它就是那種系統。這是一個 - 高點太高，現在低點可能太低了。它會像 09 年那樣再次平衡，但我們必須度過它的第一階段。我們可以做些什麼不同的事情？我們意識到了風險。而且我們 - 我認為我們甚至在其中一些會議中討論了這種風險。

So what can you do? Do you try and send more to those markets to make sure they're well supplied? We did that. But then, of course, when things slowed down, there's no way around it. So I'm not convinced that anything that the suppliers could have done would have changed the overall outcome. Now this year, again, we're trying to supply. And as people buy, that will start balancing out.

所以，你可以做什麼？您是否嘗試向這些市場發送更多產品以確保它們供應充足？我們做到了。但是，當然，當事情放緩時，就沒有辦法解決了。所以我不相信供應商可以做的任何事情都會改變整體結果。今年，我們再次嘗試供應。隨著人們購買，這將開始平衡。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Joshua Spector from UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Joshua Spector。

This is Lucas Beaumont on for Josh. I just have two quick ones. Firstly, so on your potash volume guide for the second quarter, you're talking it sounds like you think North America is going to be up year-on-year. So if that's the case, and I kind of split out like what Canpotex is doing then in the second quarter, what's applied it's implying that's kind of down 15% to 20% year-on-year. So I guess, is that right? Why would it be down that much taking less allocation there?

這是 Josh 的 Lucas Beaumont。我只有兩個快速的。首先，在你的第二季度鉀肥產量指南中，你說的聽起來你認為北美將同比增長。所以如果是這樣的話，我有點像 Canpotex 在第二季度所做的那樣分開，它的應用意味著它比去年同期下降了 15% 到 20%。所以我想，是這樣嗎？為什麼那裡的分配減少那麼多？

And secondly, just wanted to follow on from Joel's question on Fertilizantes. So maybe how do you kind of see the normalized mid-cycle EBITDA in Fertilizantes now? And could you split that between distribution EBITDA and production EBITDA for us, please?

其次，只想繼續 Joel 關於 Fertilizantes 的問題。那麼，也許您現在如何看待 Fertilizantes 的標準化中期 EBITDA？你能為我們把它分為分銷 EBITDA 和生產 EBITDA 嗎？

Yes. Okay, Lucas. Yes, potash volume, I think I said earlier, we have taken a relatively conservative view of international sales. And so yes, our portion of exports is a bit lower. And when I say this, I mean, we're looking right now. And I think what I would say is if North America keeps performing as it does, we'll be at the higher end of our guidance. And if the international market comes back, we'll be at the higher end of the guidance.

是的。好的，盧卡斯。是的，鉀肥量，我想我之前說過，我們對國際銷售持相對保守的看法。所以是的，我們的出口部分有點低。當我這麼說時，我的意思是，我們現在正在尋找。而且我想我要說的是，如果北美繼續像現在這樣表現，我們將處於指導的高端。如果國際市場回歸，我們將處於指導的高端。

All I can say at this stage is probably there's -- we try to keep a balance, but there's probably a little more upside potential than there is downside risk. At this point, it looks like. Although, again, supply chain and everything else can become a risk in this. You can only move so much product.

在這個階段我只能說可能有——我們試圖保持平衡，但可能有比下行風險更多的上行潛力。在這一點上，它看起來像。儘管如此，供應鍊和其他一切都可能成為其中的風險。您只能移動這麼多產品。

Now the second question, Brazil, yes -- and again, let me -- so let me kind of highlight Brazil, if you will. I think you can look at Brazil as being -- 50% of their earnings are going to be a production kind of economics. Now you have to take into account the fact that the producing right in the market. So I think that one is probably 50% of Brazil's earnings come from that. 30% come from the distribution business, and the rest comes from other things like co-products and whatnot. So that's kind of how we look at it, and that's how we've tried to portray that business.

現在是第二個問題，巴西，是的——讓我再說一遍——讓我來強調一下巴西，如果你願意的話。我認為您可以將巴西視為 - 他們收入的 50% 將用於生產經濟學。現在你必須考慮到生產權在市場上的事實。所以我認為巴西 50% 的收入可能來自於此。 30% 來自分銷業務，其餘來自聯產品等其他業務。所以這就是我們看待它的方式，這就是我們試圖描繪該業務的方式。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

A couple of questions about potash. India signed a contract for 6 months instead of a year this time in potash. Why do you think they did that? Why sign a short-term contract? Normally, China quickly follow suit after India signs a contract and maybe gets a $20 a tonne better price. And as you said, the Indian signed at $422 a tonne down from $590. But the Chinese didn't sign a contract down $20 a tonne. What do you make of that? And do you have an expectation for when the Chinese might sign a potash contract?

關於鉀肥的幾個問題。印度這次在鉀肥方面簽訂了為期 6 個月而不是一年的合同。你認為他們為什麼這樣做？為什麼要簽訂短期合同？通常情況下，中國在印度簽署合同後會迅速效仿，並可能獲得每噸 20 美元的優惠價格。正如您所說，印度原油的簽約價為每噸 422 美元，低於 590 美元。但中國人沒有簽訂每噸低 20 美元的合同。你怎麼看？您對中國何時簽署鉀肥合同有預期嗎？

Yes. Okay. Thanks, Jeff. Look, let me start with India. It was not India that drove the 6-month contractor. It was the suppliers, including Canpotex, and I don't like to normally speak for Canpotex, but I can tell you that we don't think the fundamentals are such that the price is going to still be at $422 come 6 months from now or at least we thought there's pretty good upside potential. So that was the reason that was a 6-month, not a year.

是的。好的。謝謝，傑夫。看，讓我從印度開始。推動這個為期 6 個月的承包商的不是印度。這是供應商，包括 Canpotex，我通常不喜歡代表 Canpotex 說話，但我可以告訴你，我們認為基本面不會讓 6 個月後價格仍保持在 422 美元或者至少我們認為有很好的上升潛力。所以這就是 6 個月而不是一年的原因。

In terms of China -- and recognize -- sorry, let me finish the India thing. The other thing with India though is it hasn't really taken off tonnage-wise because they haven't established the subsidy program. So while there is a contract price, the importers are still a little bit leery because there isn't a subsidy guarantee for them, which means the NPK plants are taking what they need, but they're taking it hand to mouth. So it's a bit problematic and it's more of a political and subsidy issue than it really is the -- on-the-ground demand.

就中國而言——承認——抱歉，讓我完成印度的事情。印度的另一件事是它並沒有真正在噸位方面起飛，因為他們還沒有建立補貼計劃。因此，雖然有合同價格，但進口商仍然有點擔心，因為他們沒有補貼保證，這意味著 NPK 工廠正在拿他們需要的東西，但他們只是勉強應付。所以這有點問題，它更像是一個政治和補貼問題，而不是實際需求。

In China, why didn't China follow? I think there's a couple of reasons. I think the first is they had the inventory that they needed for the short term, and there's -- they're looking for when do they really need product. And recognize that some things have changed in China. With 2 million tonnes coming from the rail across from Kazakhstan with -- from Belarus, and another 2 million plus coming over the euros from Uralkali and the Russians and then 6 million tonnes coming from Qinghai Lake and that production, your seaborne needs while still there are less than they were before.

在中國，為什麼中國沒有跟進？我認為有幾個原因。我認為首先是他們擁有短期所需的庫存，而且他們正在尋找他們真正需要產品的時間。並認識到中國有些事情已經發生了變化。有 200 萬噸來自哈薩克斯坦和白俄羅斯的鐵路，另外 200 萬噸來自烏拉爾鹼和俄羅斯，還有 600 萬噸來自青海湖和那些產量，你的海運需求仍然在那裡比以前少。

So maybe we have to reassess what 2 million tonnes of inventory really means because I think it will last them a little longer because they're getting their basic needs. Now having said that, I think by about midyear, they still need seaborne tonnes. So I think there's still a place for them. But I will say, and we've been saying this for years, the relevance of the Chinese contract is becoming less and less overall because they're less and less reliant on seaborne tonnes.

因此，也許我們必須重新評估 200 萬噸庫存的真正含義，因為我認為這會讓他們持續更長時間，因為他們正在滿足基本需求。話雖如此，我認為到年中左右，他們仍然需要海運噸位。所以我認為他們仍然有一席之地。但我要說的是，我們多年來一直這麼說，中國合同的相關性在整體上變得越來越不重要，因為它們對海運噸位的依賴越來越少。

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Joc, I'm just trying to synthesize all the comments today about the market and price expectations and so forth in potash with what are the sort of thresholds that you're anticipating crossing in the back half of the year that would get you to turn Colonsay on? Is it that you're looking for a certain increase in price from here? Or is it -- you're waiting for China to come back into the seaborne market? Or what is it that you guys are watching to determine whether you're going to make that decision or not?

Joc，我只是想綜合今天關於鉀肥市場和價格預期等的所有評論，以及你預計在今年下半年跨越什麼樣的門檻，這會讓你轉向科隆賽？是不是想從這裡漲價？還是——您正在等待中國重返海運市場？或者你們在看什麼來決定你們是否要做出那個決定？

Thanks, Vincent. If I'm thinking about Colonsay in particular, and I know there is one at least a cent question that said, why are we talking about restarting Colonsay at all? And really, it's almost been a timing issue that every month that goes by, Esterhazy increases its capacity a little bit to where I think now we're probably going to be well over 6 million tonnes of capacity at Esterhazy in the second half of the year. We're going to be 3 million tonnes of capacity at Belle Plaine.

謝謝，文森特。如果我特別考慮 Colonsay，而且我知道至少有一個問題是這樣說的，我們為什麼要談論重新啟動 Colonsay？事實上，這幾乎是一個時間問題，每個月過去，Esterhazy 都會將其產能略微增加到我認為現在 Esterhazy 的產能可能會在下半年超過 600 萬噸的水平年。 Belle Plaine 的產能將達到 300 萬噸。

And so overall, we've got 9 million tonnes of total capacity without Colonsay. So I think -- where it is Colonsay come in? I think if the export market really heats up and you start seeing good demand from China, good demand from India, good demand from Indonesia and Malaysia, Brazil start moving and Latin America, then you're going to start to see the potential for us to not only have the need, the inventory will get run down that we have at the plants, and we may not be able to keep up with the 9.5.

所以總的來說，我們有 900 萬噸的總產能，沒有 Colonsay。所以我認為 - Colonsay 在哪裡進來？我認為，如果出口市場真的升溫，你開始看到來自中國的良好需求，來自印度的良好需求，來自印度尼西亞和馬來西亞的良好需求，巴西和拉丁美洲開始移動，那麼你將開始看到我們的潛力不僅有需求，我們工廠的庫存也會減少，我們可能跟不上 9.5。

Now if that only comes in lackluster, Colonsay probably doesn't run. So Colonsay, it's not really a price issue for Colonsay because I think the profitability of Colonsay would still be reasonably good at this level. But I don't want to be stuffing product into a market where there isn't a buyer or we just actually destroy the market we're in. And not unlike what happened when BPC broke up. And so I think there's a good case to be careful about how we bring that new -- that other production on.

現在，如果這只是表現平平，那麼 Colonsay 可能不會參選。所以 Colonsay，這對 Colonsay 來說並不是真正的價格問題，因為我認為 Colonsay 的盈利能力在這個水平上仍然相當不錯。但我不想把產品塞進一個沒有買家的市場，或者我們實際上只是在破壞我們所在的市場。這與 BPC 解散時發生的事情沒什麼不同。所以我認為有一個很好的理由要小心我們如何帶來新的 - 其他產品。

It's sitting there. Maybe we have a little excess capacity that we're -- the cost of holding is high, but there's enough uncertainty right now that I don't want to risk not having it if that market comes back, that strong.

它就坐在那裡。也許我們有一點產能過剩 - 持有成本很高，但現在有足夠的不確定性，如果市場回歸那麼強勁，我不想冒險沒有它。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Joc O'Rourke for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Joc O'Rourke 作任何閉幕詞。

Okay. Thank you, everyone. Let me conclude our call by reinforcing a couple of our key messages. The agricultural commodity prices are still elevated. This gives farmers strong incentive to maximize their yield and use fertilizers. So fertilizer demand is robust and volumes are starting to move quite strongly. Our operations are running well, and our strong earnings and cash flow are allowing us to return significant capital to shareholders.

好的。謝謝大家。讓我通過強調我們的幾個關鍵信息來結束我們的電話會議。農產品價格仍處於高位。這為農民提供了最大化產量和使用化肥的強烈動力。因此，肥料需求強勁，產量開始強勁增長。我們的運營運行良好，強勁的收益和現金流使我們能夠向股東返還大量資本。

2023 is off to a good start for Mosaic, and we have a positive outlook for the remainder of the year. So with that, thank you for joining our call. Have a great and safe day.

2023 年對 Mosaic 來說是一個良好的開端，我們對今年剩餘時間的前景持樂觀態度。因此，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。祝您度過美好而安全的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。