美盛公司 (MOS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Mosaic Company's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Your host for today's call is Paul Massoud, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis of the Mosaic Company. Mr. Massoud, you may begin.

早安，歡迎參加馬賽克公司（Mosaic Company）2022 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。（接線員指示）今天會議的主持人是馬賽克公司投資人關係與財務規劃及分析副總裁 Paul Massoud。Massoud 先生，您可以開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer; followed by a fireside chat and then open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Senior Vice President, Global Strategic Marketing will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝各位，歡迎參加我們 2022 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Joc O'Rourke 提供；接著是爐邊談話，然後進入開放式問答。資深副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland，以及資深副總裁、全球策略行銷 Jenny Wang 也將在場回答各位的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的報告中。我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們的新聞稿與績效資料亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

現在我想把電話交給 Joc。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our full year 2022 earnings call. Mosaic had a record year in 2022, delivering revenues of $19 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.2 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $11.01. In 2022, we reached several operational milestones that allowed us to benefit from strong prices. K3 reached its initial capacity of 5.5 million tonnes. In Brazil, we grew our distribution market share from 16% to 18%. In North America in phosphates, Performance Products represented 43% of total sales volumes, and now we've begun to look at expanding our MicroEssentials capacity further, which we will discuss later. These efforts are driving strong free cash flow generation, which allowed us to return significant capital to shareholders in 2022, while also strengthening our balance sheet.

早安。感謝各位參加我們 2022 年全年財報電話會議。馬賽克在 2022 年創下紀錄，實現營收 190 億美元、調整後 EBITDA 62 億美元，以及調整後每股盈餘 11.01 美元。2022 年，我們達成多項營運里程碑，使我們得以受惠於強勁的價格。K3 達到其初始產能 550 萬噸。在巴西，我們將通路市占率由 16% 提升至 18%。在北美的磷酸鹽業務中，Performance Products 佔總銷售量的 43%；而我們也已開始評估進一步擴充 MicroEssentials 產能，稍後將會說明。這些努力正推動強勁的自由現金流，使我們在 2022 年得以向股東返還可觀資本，同時也強化了資產負債表。

Over the last 12 months, we've repurchased $1.7 billion worth of shares outstanding. If we include the fourth quarter of 2021, we've bought back more than 10% of the shares outstanding or roughly 40 million shares. In addition to share repurchases, we've also paid investors nearly $200 million in dividends. Our regular dividend now stands at $0.80 per share, up from $0.60 per share the prior year. And on the balance sheet, we met our long-term debt reduction target of $1 billion with the retirement of $550 million of long-term debt in November.

過去 12 個月，我們回購了 17 億美元的流通在外股份。若將 2021 年第四季納入計算，我們已回購超過 10% 的流通在外股份，約 4,000 萬股。除股票回購外，我們也向投資人支付了近 2 億美元股利。我們的例行股利目前為每股 0.80 美元，高於前一年的每股 0.60 美元。在資產負債表方面，我們於 11 月償還 5.5 億美元長期債務，達成長期債務削減 10 億美元的目標。

Before diving into our business further, I'd like to briefly discuss broader agriculture and fertilizer markets. Ag market fundamentals remain very constructive with December corn near $6 per bushel and November beans near $14 a bushel. This reflects ongoing global food security concerns at a time of disappointing production. Global stocks-to-use ratios are at 25-year lows and remain under pressure because of elevated risks that threaten output in 2023. The world continues to watch the war in Ukraine. We have consulted with top military and foreign policy leaders who share our concern that the conflict seems unlikely to be resolved in the near term and will have long-lasting impacts, particularly in the production of key crops like wheat and sunflowers, which is a source of significant amount of the world's edible oils.

在進一步深入我們的業務之前，我想先簡要談談更廣泛的農業與肥料市場。農產品市場基本面仍相當有利，12 月玉米價格接近每英斗 6 美元，11 月黃豆接近每英斗 14 美元。這反映出在產量不如預期之際，全球糧食安全疑慮仍在。全球庫存使用比處於 25 年低點，且因 2023 年威脅產出的高風險而持續承壓。全世界仍在關注烏克蘭戰爭。我們已諮詢頂尖軍事與外交政策領袖，他們與我們同樣擔憂，該衝突短期內似乎不太可能解決，並將帶來長期影響，特別是對小麥與向日葵等關鍵作物的生產；而向日葵是全球可食用油的重要來源之一。

Outside of Europe, we believe the USDA's latest estimate for Argentinian production appears optimistic as drought conditions during the growing season suggest yields will disappoint. In Brazil, weather has delayed the planting of safrinha corn which could pressure the record crop that many are forecasting. Around the world, we still see fertilizer shortages in many key agricultural markets, despite some major markets being well supplied. However, the overall shortage still threatens total production, and this will underpin global crop prices for some time.

在歐洲以外，我們認為美國農業部（USDA）對阿根廷產量的最新估計似乎偏樂觀，因為生長季的乾旱狀況顯示單產可能令人失望。在巴西，天候延遲了二季玉米（safrinha corn）的播種，可能對許多人預測的創紀錄收成造成壓力。放眼全球，儘管部分主要市場供應充足，我們仍在許多關鍵農業市場看到肥料短缺。然而，整體短缺仍威脅總產量，並將在一段時間內支撐全球作物價格。

Now let's focus on the fertilizer markets. The sharp spike in nutrient prices in the first half of last year resulted in growers aggressively mining their soils. As we enter 2023, phosphate and potash prices are now half of what they were at the peak. With crop prices still very strong, farmer affordability for nutrients has improved significantly and is now back to the levels seen in 2020 and 2021. This suggests a strong rebound in demand as growers seek to maximize yields with sufficient fertilization. The world is still short of potash. Certain markets are seeing more readily available supply, but this means other markets are not able to get what they need. Belarusian supply remains constrained because of the ongoing sanctions. We believe Belaruskali's exports were down about 8 million tons in 2022, and we expect only modest recovery in 2023 with total exports of around 6 million to 7 million tonnes or half of their pre-sanctioned export volumes.

現在讓我們聚焦肥料市場。去年上半年養分價格的急劇飆升，導致種植戶積極「開採」土壤養分。進入 2023 年，磷酸鹽與鉀肥價格已降至高峰時的一半。由於作物價格仍然強勁，農民對養分的負擔能力已顯著改善，並回到 2020 與 2021 年的水準。這顯示需求將強勁反彈，因為種植戶希望透過充足施肥來最大化單產。全球仍然缺鉀肥。某些市場供應更容易取得，但這意味著其他市場無法獲得所需供應。由於持續制裁，白俄羅斯供應仍受限。我們認為 Belaruskali 在 2022 年的出口量約減少 800 萬噸；我們預期 2023 年僅會溫和復甦，總出口約 600 萬至 700 萬噸，約為制裁前出口量的一半。

The limited product, Belarus has been able to get out of the country has been aggressively marketed over the seasonally slow winter, and we've seen similar actions from some Russian producers. This is driving recent weakness in prices, but we believe the phenomena is temporary and will reverse as spring demand ramps up. In phosphates, China remains committed to the structural shift impacting where it sends its phosphoric acid. In addition to shutting down production for environmental reasons, a significant portion of phosphoric acid is now being directed to industrial uses, including the battery market. Roughly 1 million tonnes of finished fertilizer equivalent was diverted to the battery market in 2022 and we think that will continue to grow rapidly over the next few years as additional battery capacity is added. This suggests China's exports of phosphate fertilizers will continue to be down significantly as restrictions extend into 2023.

白俄羅斯能夠運出國境的有限產品，在季節性需求偏弱的冬季被積極行銷，我們也看到部分俄羅斯生產商有類似作法。這正導致近期價格走弱，但我們認為此現象屬暫時性，隨著春季需求升溫將會反轉。在磷酸鹽方面，中國仍致力於結構性轉變，影響其磷酸的出口流向。除因環保因素關停部分產能外，相當比例的磷酸目前轉向工業用途，包括電池市場。2022 年約有相當於 100 萬噸成品肥料的量被轉供電池市場，我們認為未來幾年隨著新增電池產能投放，該需求將快速成長。這意味著中國磷酸鹽肥料出口將持續大幅下降，且限制措施將延續至 2023 年。

Inventory levels in our key markets for both phosphates and potash have declined considerably from the elevated levels observed in the second half of last year. Grower demand across the Americas has been very strong because of favorable affordability, but retailers have been hesitant to replenish inventories because of the volatility in global prices especially in potash with the aggressive off-season marketing from the Russians and the Belarusians. U.S. spring demand is ramping up over the next coming weeks, and we believe we have reached a bottom in potash prices.

我們主要市場中，磷酸鹽與鉀肥的庫存水準已較去年下半年觀察到的高位大幅下降。由於負擔能力改善，美洲地區種植戶需求非常強勁，但零售商因全球價格波動而對補庫存仍較為謹慎，尤其是鉀肥，因俄羅斯與白俄羅斯在淡季的積極行銷加劇了波動。美國春季需求將在未來幾週逐步升溫，我們認為鉀肥價格已觸底。

In Brazil, sentiment has improved. Inventories have worked their way down to much more normalized levels for both potash and phosphates as growers take advantage of much more attractive barter ratios. We estimate fertilizer shipments will total 46 million tonnes in 2023, up more than 10% from last year, and roughly 35% of those expected shipments have already been contracted. In India, phosphate inventories remain very low even after a year of elevated imports as most of the product went straight to the ground.

在巴西，市場情緒已改善。隨著種植戶利用更具吸引力的以物易物比率（barter ratios），鉀肥與磷酸鹽庫存已下降至更為正常化的水準。我們估計 2023 年肥料出貨量將達 4,600 萬噸，較去年增加逾 10%，且預期出貨量中約 35% 已完成簽約。在印度，即使在高進口的一年之後，磷酸鹽庫存仍然非常低，因為大部分產品直接施用到田間。

Government subsidies for the coming fertilizer year will determine whether India will be able to attract the nutrients it needs to meet its food security concerns. In Southeast Asia, potash has become much more affordable for palm oil producers as well, which should drive demand recovery. Globally, we're seeing very good farmer economics and depleted inventories that suggest strong demand for phosphates and potash in 2023. Given this landscape, we believe our business is well positioned to benefit from the market's recovery. In phosphates, lingering issues from Hurricane Ian impacted our operations during the fourth quarter for longer than originally expected, but Florida operations returned to normal operating levels earlier this month. We now believe we've moved past the operational issues that impacted output and are dedicating resources to fixing key components in our production.

即將到來的肥料年度之政府補貼，將決定印度是否能吸引其滿足糧食安全需求所需的養分。在東南亞，鉀肥對棕櫚油生產商而言也變得更可負擔，這應會帶動需求復甦。全球而言，我們看到農民經濟性非常良好且庫存偏低，顯示 2023 年磷酸鹽與鉀肥需求強勁。基於此市場環境，我們認為公司業務已做好準備以受惠於市場復甦。在磷酸鹽方面，颶風 Ian 的後續影響使我們第四季營運受影響的時間比原先預期更長，但佛羅里達的營運已於本月稍早恢復至正常水準。我們現在認為已度過影響產出的營運問題，並正投入資源修復生產中的關鍵組件。

At Bartow, we are upgrading our sulfuric acid production facilities following the recent production stops we saw after Hurricane Ian. And at Faustina, we've improved operations at our ammonia plant and saw a significant increase in the amount of ammonia produced from our plant during the fourth quarter. Florida production has returned to normal operating rates. During the first quarter, we expect total shipments of 1.7 million tonnes to 1.9 million tonnes with realized pricing of $625 to $675 per tonne. We expect stripping margins will remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter as lower raw material prices offset lower finished product prices. In our potash business, slower demand led us to temporarily stop production at our Colonsay mine, but we think the current market situation is temporary and expect to restart operations at Colonsay within the first half of 2023.

在 Bartow，我們正於颶風 Ian 後近期停產事件之後，升級硫酸生產設施。在 Faustina，我們改善了氨廠營運，並在第四季看到工廠氨產量顯著增加。佛羅里達的產量已回到正常運轉率。第一季我們預期總出貨量為 170 萬噸至 190 萬噸，實現價格為每噸 625 美元至 675 美元。我們預期剝採利潤（stripping margins）將較上季維持相對穩定，因原料價格下跌可抵銷成品價格下跌。在鉀肥業務方面，需求較慢使我們暫時停止 Colonsay 礦場生產，但我們認為目前市場情況屬暫時性，並預期將於 2023 年上半年內重啟 Colonsay 的營運。

At Esterhazy, the 12th miner is being commissioned, and the 13th miner is expected to be in service before the end of the year. When that's done, it will add at least 1 million tonnes of additional annual capacity at one of the most efficient mines in the world. In the first quarter, we expect sales of 1.8 million tonnes to 2 million tons with realized MOP prices at the mine of $425 to $475 per tonne. Mosaic Fertilizantes had its best year since we purchased the business in 2018 with adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion in 2022 despite volatility in the second half of the year. Fourth quarter results reflect the sharp reversal of commodity prices from the highs of the first half of the year, which negatively impacted both the production and the distribution margins. But for the full year, our distribution margins averaged $36 per tonne, which is right in the range of $30 to $40 per tonne that we'd expect. First quarter distribution margins will be similar to fourth quarter as higher inventory is worked through. But for the full year, we do expect distribution margins to be back within our normal range.

在 Esterhazy，第 12 號礦機正在進行投產試車，第 13 號礦機預計將在年底前投入服務。完成後，將在全球效率最高的礦場之一新增至少 100 萬噸的年產能。第一季，我們預期銷量為 180 萬噸至 200 萬噸，礦場端實現的 MOP 價格為每噸 425 美元至 475 美元。Mosaic Fertilizantes 在 2022 年創下自我們於 2018 年收購該業務以來的最佳年度表現，儘管下半年波動劇烈，調整後 EBITDA 仍達 10 億美元。第四季結果反映出大宗商品價格自上半年高點急劇回落，對生產與分銷毛利皆造成負面影響。但就全年而言，我們的分銷毛利平均為每噸 36 美元，正落在我們預期的每噸 30 至 40 美元區間。由於較高庫存正在消化，第一季分銷毛利將與第四季相近。但就全年而言，我們確實預期分銷毛利將回到我們的正常區間。

As we think about the evolution of our business, we continue to execute our high-returning investments while returning capital to shareholders. In phosphates, we've begun expansion of our MicroEssentials offering by adding capacity at our Riverview facility. The project is expected to be completed by the end of the year. Upon completion, about 50% of our North American phosphate business will be sales of value-added performance products. This is not an expensive project. Total budget is less than $40 million with a payback period of less than 2 years.

在思考我們業務的演進時，我們持續執行高報酬投資，同時向股東返還資本。在磷酸鹽方面，我們已開始擴充 MicroEssentials 產品供應，透過在 Riverview 廠區增加產能。該專案預計於年底前完成。完成後，我們北美磷酸鹽業務約 50% 的銷售將來自具附加價值的效能型產品。這不是一個昂貴的專案；總預算低於 4,000 萬美元，回收期少於 2 年。

We're also building a test plan for purified phosphoric acid production in North America to verify final design plans for commercial operation. This is the next step in our shift away from commodity fertilizers and opens up new markets like food production and batteries.

我們也正在北美建立一項純化磷酸生產的試驗計畫，以驗證商業化營運的最終設計方案。這是我們從大宗肥料轉型的下一步，並將開啟如食品生產與電池等新市場。

We're also exploring using the plant's byproducts to produce NPKs. In Brazil, we continue to grow our distribution business. While our footprint is already large, there are still areas where we see opportunities to expand. We've begun construction of a 1 million tonne blending and distribution facility at [Pomerance] in the fast-growing North with access to very attractive rail infrastructure. Returns of about 20% and on an expected $80 million budget, make this another example of highly attractive modest investments.

我們也在探索利用該工廠的副產品來生產 NPK。在巴西，我們持續擴大分銷業務。雖然我們的據點版圖已相當龐大，但仍有一些區域我們看到擴張機會。我們已在北部快速成長地區的 [Pomerance] 開始興建一座 100 萬噸的混配與分銷設施，並可利用極具吸引力的鐵路基礎設施。約 20% 的報酬率與預計 8,000 萬美元的預算，使其成為另一個高吸引力、規模適中的投資案例。

We're also monetizing past investments. In January, we sold our Streamsong Resort for $160 million because we could realize appealing value for a noncore asset. Our joint venture in Saudi Arabia is also performing well. In 2022, Mosaic's equity earnings from the joint venture totaled $195 million, which is about 1/4 of our initial investment. This year, they plan to reduce debt by $800 million. They've also distributed $100 million in dividends to investors. Our proportional share of $25 million was received this month.

我們也正在將過去的投資變現。1 月，我們以 1.6 億美元出售 Streamsong Resort，因為我們能為一項非核心資產實現具吸引力的價值。我們在沙烏地阿拉伯的合資企業也表現良好。2022 年，Mosaic 來自該合資企業的權益法收益合計 1.95 億美元，約為我們初始投資的四分之一。今年，他們計畫減少 8 億美元的負債。他們也已向投資人發放 1 億美元股利。我們按比例分得的 2,500 萬美元已於本月收到。

Finally, I want to reiterate that we remain committed to our approach to balance sheet management and shareholder capital returns. In November, we retired $550 million in long-term debt, and this allowed us to meet our commitment of reducing long-term debt by $1 billion. As we look at our balance sheet today, we believe we are well positioned for the long term. Similar to last year, we plan to return substantially all of our free cash flow to shareholders in 2023 through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. Since September of 2021, we bought back $2.2 billion in shares, and we continue to see great value in our shares. To emphasize that point, we plan to proceed with a $300 million accelerated share repurchase program in the first quarter. We've also grown our regular dividend to $0.80 per share, and we're well positioned to consider further growth, especially with our reduced share count. In addition to the regular common dividend, our Board of Directors has approved a special dividend of $0.25 per share to be paid out on March 30 to shareholders of record on March 15.

最後，我想重申，我們仍致力於資產負債表管理與股東資本回饋的既定方針。11 月，我們償還了 5.5 億美元的長期債務，並因此達成將長期債務降低 10 億美元的承諾。以目前的資產負債表來看，我們相信公司已為長期發展做好良好布局。與去年類似，我們計畫在 2023 年透過股票回購與股利的組合，向股東返還幾乎全部的自由現金流。自 2021 年 9 月以來，我們已回購 22 億美元的股票，且我們仍認為公司股票具備很高價值。為強調這一點，我們計畫在第一季推進 3 億美元的加速股票回購計畫。我們也將例行股利提高至每股 0.80 美元，並在股數減少的情況下，具備進一步成長的良好條件。除例行普通股股利外，我們董事會亦核准每股 0.25 美元的特別股利，將於 3 月 30 日發放給 3 月 15 日登記在冊的股東。

Given our strong cash flow, combined with the proceeds of asset sales, our Board approved this payout as a supplement to our ongoing share repurchases. Before we go on to Q&A, allow me to summarize. Mosaic delivered record results in 2022 and we expect favorable dynamics to continue in 2023. The world is short global grains and oilseeds. So farmers are incented to maximize yields. We expect this to drive strong fertilizer demand and our business is well positioned to meet that demand through our existing assets and exciting new growth opportunities. With the strong cash flows that these provide we're returning significant capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

鑑於我們強勁的現金流，加上資產出售所得，我們董事會核准此項發放，以補充我們持續進行的股票回購。在進入問答之前，請容我做個總結。Mosaic 在 2022 年交出創紀錄的成果，我們預期 2023 年有利的動態將持續。全球穀物與油籽供給不足，因此農民有動機將產量最大化。我們預期這將帶動強勁的肥料需求，而我們的業務已透過既有資產與令人振奮的新成長機會，做好滿足該需求的準備。憑藉這些所帶來的強勁現金流，我們正透過股利與股票回購向股東返還可觀資本。

With that, I'd like to now move on to the Q&A portion of the call.

接下來，我想進入本次電話會議的問答環節。

Thanks, Joc. Before we move on to the live portion of this call, as we've done in past quarters, we'd like to address some of the most common questions we received after we published our earnings materials last night. Joc, could you provide a little more color on the potash market? And why we expect Colonsay will need to be restarted in the first half of 2023?

謝謝你，Joc。在我們進入本次電話會議的即時問答之前，正如過去幾個季度所做的，我們想先回應昨晚發布財報資料後收到的一些最常見問題。Joc，你能否就鉀肥市場提供更多說明？以及為何我們預期 Colonsay 需要在 2023 年上半年重啟？

Thanks, Paul. Let me start by saying we've had a year of low potash usage which means soil levels are depleted, and farmers will need to add potash to the soil to ensure reasonable yields this year. So growers are seeing very attractive economics, and they're acting on it. We're seeing things like our largest channel customer in North America has already got 60% of their farmers' demand is committed for spring, which is higher than most normal years. So as we move into spring, our expectation is farmer demand is going to be good, but everybody is waiting for the last moment. They don't want to live with the price risk. So why we expect a very good season in North America, and we're already seeing a good season in Brazil, we do expect people to wait as long as they feel they can. But once it moves, we expect it to move fairly well.

謝謝你，Paul。我先說明：我們經歷了一年鉀肥使用量偏低的情況，這意味著土壤中的鉀含量已被消耗，農民今年需要補施鉀肥以確保合理的產量。因此，種植戶看到非常有吸引力的經濟效益，並且正在採取行動。我們看到一些情況，例如我們在北美最大的通路客戶，已經有其農戶春季需求的 60% 完成承諾，這高於多數正常年份。因此，隨著進入春季，我們預期農民需求會不錯，但大家都在等到最後一刻，因為他們不想承擔價格風險。所以，雖然我們預期北美會有非常好的季節，而且我們已在巴西看到良好季節，我們確實預期人們會盡可能延後。但一旦開始啟動，我們預期推進會相當順暢。

Overall, we do see the potash market as being limited by production. So while demand will be normal, we expect Russia will be exporting less than what they have in the past, probably 1.5 million to plus million tonnes and Belarus will probably export 6 million tonnes to 7 million tonnes, which is half of what they did pre-sanction. So we think this situation today at the standoff is temporary and it will start moving. And when it starts moving, we expect we will have to run hard to supply the market.

整體而言，我們確實認為鉀肥市場受到供給端產量所限制。因此，雖然需求將回到正常水準，我們預期俄羅斯的出口量將低於過去，可能少 150 萬噸以上；白俄羅斯的出口量可能為 600 萬噸至 700 萬噸，約為制裁前的一半。因此，我們認為目前這種僵局是暫時的，之後會開始動起來。而一旦開始動起來，我們預期必須全力運轉以供應市場。

Jenny, do you want to just give us a little bit of a highlight of where the overall S&D is for potash right now?

Jenny，你是否願意為我們簡要說明一下目前鉀肥整體供需（S&D）的概況？

Sure, Joc. As you mentioned, the potash market last year declined by 16%. That was driven by the supply constraint and this year, with a very constructive farm economics. In the markets like North America and South America, we believe farmers have all the incentive to go back to apply potash on the field to maximize their yield. For the markets like China and India, the government, they are concerned to the food security. Therefore, there are a lot of local policies to support the farmers to maximize their production. For that, we actually have seen potash demand increased last year in China. We believe this trend is going to continue. So overall, in 2023, we expect the demand to rebound globally but there's no way to have the full recovery back to 2021 just because the supply is constrained. We are seeing 5 million tonnes to 6 million tonnes of supply shortage in this market.

當然，Joc。如你所提到，去年鉀肥市場下滑了 16%，主要由供給受限所驅動。而今年，在農業經濟條件非常正向的情況下，像北美與南美等市場，我們相信農民有充分誘因恢復在田間施用鉀肥，以最大化產量。至於中國與印度等市場，政府關注糧食安全，因此有許多在地政策支持農民提升產量。基於此，我們其實已看到去年中國的鉀肥需求增加，我們相信這一趨勢將持續。因此整體而言，2023 年我們預期全球需求將反彈，但由於供給受限，不可能完全恢復到 2021 年的水準。我們看到該市場存在 500 萬噸至 600 萬噸的供給缺口。

Joc, Mosaic Fertilizantes gross margin dropped significantly in the fourth quarter. What drove that margin compression? And how should investors think about margins for the business in 2023?

Joc，Mosaic Fertilizantes 的毛利在第四季大幅下滑。是什麼因素導致毛利率被壓縮？投資人應如何看待該業務在 2023 年的毛利表現？

Thanks, Paul. Now if we look at the second half of 2022, it reflects a reversal in prices from the first half of the year. This impacted both our distribution and our production business. In our production business, we are now working our way through high-cost raw materials such as sulfur and ammonia. As those move through the system, we expect our margins to get more normalized after the first quarter. In distribution, high cost inventory is now working its way through the system. Now, none of this should have come as much of a surprise because prices were moving up in the first half and coming back down in the second half of the year.

謝謝，Paul。現在如果我們看 2022 年下半年，這反映了相較於上半年價格的反轉。這影響了我們的通路（distribution）與生產業務。在我們的生產業務中，我們目前正在消化高成本原料，例如硫磺與氨。隨著這些原料成本逐步在系統中反映出來，我們預期在第一季之後，我們的利潤率將更趨於正常化。在通路方面，高成本庫存也正在系統中逐步消化。其實這些都不應該太令人意外，因為價格在上半年上漲、並在下半年回落。

So in the first half of the year, we made higher distribution margins. And in the second half of the year, those reversed as we were selling higher-priced inventory into the market. If we look at it over a whole year, both our production business and our distribution business did very well. And overall, '22 was a very successful year and a record year for the Fertilizantes business. Once we get past the first quarter, distribution margins should be in line with our historical expectations of $30 to $40 per tonne, and our production margins will revert to normal stripping margins as well once we work through the high-cost raw materials.

因此在上半年，我們取得了較高的通路毛利。而在下半年，當我們把較高成本的庫存賣到市場時，這些毛利就反轉了。如果以全年來看，我們的生產業務與通路業務表現都非常好。整體而言，2022 年是 Fertilizantes 業務非常成功且創紀錄的一年。一旦我們度過第一季，通路毛利應會回到我們歷史預期的每噸 30 至 40 美元區間；而我們的生產毛利也會在消化完高成本原料後，回歸到正常的剝離（stripping）毛利水準。

Joc, how should investors think about our production volumes over the next year? And what types of capital projects is Mosaic initiating to support reliability?

Joc，投資人應該如何看待我們未來一年的生產量？Mosaic 正在啟動哪些資本專案來支持可靠性？

Thank you. First of all, let me say, the last couple of years, there have been some extraordinary circumstances that have impacted our production, particularly in our phosphate business and our Brazil businesses. First, sulfur shortages coming out of the Gulf of Mexico has hurt us at the start of last year, refinery shutdowns, COVID, transportation limitations at the start of last year and then, of course, a couple of big hurricanes, one that hit Louisiana and the other one last year, which hit directly onto our operations here in Florida. Now, what we saw from those was damage that probably lingered longer than we would have liked because of the condition of some of our plants. So what are we doing to improve that? We're looking at how do we fortify our plants to make them more resilient to this type of occurrence. And some of that means we've replaced a bunch of our converters in sulfuric acid, our boilers or economizers, et cetera.

謝謝。首先我想說，過去幾年出現了一些非比尋常的情況，影響了我們的產量，特別是在我們的磷酸鹽業務以及巴西業務。首先，來自墨西哥灣的硫磺短缺在去年年初對我們造成衝擊；煉油廠停工、COVID、去年年初的運輸限制，然後當然還有幾場大型颶風，一場襲擊路易斯安那州，另一場則在去年直接衝擊我們在佛羅里達的營運。從這些事件中我們看到，由於部分工廠的狀況，損害的影響可能比我們希望的持續更久。那我們要如何改善？我們正在研究如何強化工廠，使其對這類事件更具韌性。其中一部分措施包括更換硫酸裝置中的多個轉化器（converter）、鍋爐或省煤器（economizer）等。

In Brazil, we're building a new sulfur tank, new phosphoric acid tanks are being overhauled. So we're doing a lot of work to really fortify and reinforce the resilience of these plants. So where do we expect these to go? What we've seen already is, for instance, where we've done the repair work at Faustina, in Louisiana, more than 40% of our ammonia last quarter was supplied from Faustina, which is the highest it's been in over a couple of years. So we think we're getting ahead of all of that. Now if I look forward, what do I expect? I expect that we will be running in that 85% to 90% of our 10-K value. So that would probably indicate somewhere in the range of 7.5 million tonnes to 8 million tonnes in phosphates and 3.5 million tonnes in our Brazilian business.

在巴西，我們正在建造新的硫磺儲槽，新的磷酸儲槽也正在翻修。因此我們做了大量工作，真正去強化並提升這些工廠的韌性。那我們預期會走向何處？例如，我們已經看到在路易斯安那州 Faustina 完成修復工作後，上季我們超過 40% 的氨供應來自 Faustina，這是過去幾年來的最高水準。所以我們認為我們正在超前處理這些問題。展望未來，我預期我們將以 10-K 所列產能值的 85% 到 90% 運轉。這大概意味著磷酸鹽約 750 萬噸到 800 萬噸，以及我們巴西業務約 350 萬噸。

This concludes the prerecorded portion of our call. Let's now move on to the live Q&A. Operator?

以上為本次電話會議的預錄部分。現在我們進入即時問答。接線員？

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

（接線員指示）今天第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne。

Just following up on that statistic that you provided, Jenny, where global consumption of potash down 16% in 2022 and your estimates for Russia and Belarus sound like down another 10% or down 10% from 2021 in this year. My question for you is, does the world really not need 70 million tonnes of potash or could there be an impact on global crop production this year as a result of this? And/or do you think there could be maybe a bit of a panic to meet farmer demand this spring given the just-in-time purchasing mentality?

我想追問你提供的那個數據，Jenny：2022 年全球鉀肥消費量下降 16%，而你對俄羅斯與白俄羅斯的估計聽起來是今年相較 2021 年再下降 10% 或下降約 10%。我的問題是：世界真的不需要 7,000 萬噸鉀肥嗎？或者這會不會導致今年全球作物產量受到影響？以及／或者，你是否認為在春季因為即時採購（just-in-time）的購買心態，可能會出現一點恐慌性採購以滿足農民需求？

Thanks, Steve. This is Joc. I'll start here and hand it over to Jenny as you requested. But let me say the world does need 70-plus million tons of potash. We believe there is a real need. And what's -- we expect to see happen and what we have seen happen is continents like Africa actually going without product that they really need. So we're actually shorting some regions, Africa and parts of Asia because they can't afford it and even some of Central America. So the reality is, if there was more potash, it would certainly find a home. And obviously, the price sensitivity would be different as it is today, we expect the major markets that can afford will bid up the potash price, and that will be what drives that.

謝謝，Steve。我是 Joc。我先回答，然後如你所要求再交給 Jenny。不過我先說，世界確實需要 7,000 萬噸以上的鉀肥。我們相信這是實際需求。而我們預期會發生、且已經看到的是，像非洲這樣的洲實際上正在缺少他們真正需要的產品。所以我們其實是在縮減對某些地區的供應——非洲與部分亞洲，甚至中美洲的一些地方——因為他們負擔不起。現實是，如果有更多鉀肥，肯定能找到去處。當然，價格敏感度會有所不同；在目前情況下，我們預期有能力負擔的主要市場會把鉀肥價格競價推高，而這將成為驅動因素。

So I'm going to hand it over to Jenny to just talk a little bit about that balance.

所以我把時間交給 Jenny，請她再談談這個供需平衡。

Yes, sure. Thanks, Joc. Steve, to your question, what is the impact with a significant demand of shipment reduction last year, we believe that was over 11 million tonnes versus the previous year, we believe the impact to the yield in some of the markets might be reflected on the yield for that year. And in some markets like North America and Brazil, where the farmers, probably they have invested in the potash application. In the previous year, they -- probably they were able to afford for reducing rate for a year, but in 2 years in a row to cut application rate, it is not really a good decision for the farmers to maximize their yield and production. Therefore, we believe the demand recovery of the demand for potash in this market are there. It's just the farmers have the incentive to maximize their production. There are certain markets, as I mentioned in the prerecorded answer, the government are really supporting the farmers to use potash in order to secure their food security. And we believe that government support are going to continue as we are getting into 2023.

好的，當然。謝謝，Joc。Steve，針對你的問題：去年出貨量大幅下滑的影響——我們認為相較前一年減少了超過 1,100 萬噸——我們相信在某些市場，對單產（yield）的影響可能會反映在當年的收成上。而在北美與巴西等市場，農民可能在前一年已經投入鉀肥施用；他們或許還能負擔把施用量降低一年，但連續兩年降低施用量，對農民而言並不是能夠最大化單產與產量的好決策。因此，我們認為這些市場的鉀肥需求復甦是存在的；只是農民有動機去最大化他們的產出。某些市場如我在預錄回答中提到的，政府正大力支持農民使用鉀肥以確保糧食安全。我們相信，隨著進入 2023 年，這些政府支持將會持續。

Lastly on the spring demand, what we heard from our customers and also the growers on the ground, Steve, in North America, in particular, there's a very clear desire based on the affordability and the farm economics that farmers could go back to apply potash, especially for those who skipped a season last year or cut the rate last year. We are at the stage that the farmers need to engage with their retailers and then the retailers to cover the last part of the buying from us. And we see that is happening. In fact, this week, we are seeing increasing inquiries in the south part of the U.S. as the season started. So we feel confident that demand is going to recover for potash and we still, I believe, with a significant constraint on supply and the price will stay at a healthy level, although it is much more moderated from last year.

最後談到春季需求，Steve，根據我們從客戶以及第一線種植戶聽到的情況，特別是在北美，基於可負擔性與農場經濟狀況，農民有非常明確的意願回到鉀肥施用，尤其是那些去年跳過一季或去年降低施用量的人。目前的階段是農民需要與零售商接洽，然後由零售商向我們補足最後一部分採購。我們看到這正在發生。事實上，本週隨著季節開始，我們看到美國南部的詢問量正在增加。因此我們對鉀肥需求將會復甦感到有信心；同時我仍然認為供給存在顯著限制，價格將維持在健康水準，儘管相較去年已更為溫和。

And just let me add this, Steve, as well because you asked the question of Colonsay, one of the reasons we believe Colonsay will likely be needed in the first half of the year, as that demand comes back, we think there's a good case for the restart of Colonsay. So it is in hot standby. The labor is there, everybody is ready. Now if we don't need it, it won't come up. But if we do need it, it will come and we expect that might be the -- that is the likely case as we see it.

另外我也補充一下，Steve，因為你也問到 Colonsay。我们之所以相信 Colonsay 很可能在上半年需要啟用，其中一個原因是隨著需求回來，我們認為重啟 Colonsay 有很充分的理由。因此它目前處於熱備（hot standby）狀態。人力都在，大家都準備好了。如果我們不需要，它就不會啟動；但如果我們需要，它就會啟動，而依我們目前所見，這很可能——這就是我們認為最可能的情況。

The next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的 P.J. Juvekar。

Yes. Joc, I think you mentioned that 1 million tonne equivalent of fertilizer is going into the battery market. Is that DAP equivalent that you're talking about? Is that a.

是的。Joc，我想你提到有 100 萬噸等量的肥料流向電池市場。你指的是 DAP 等量嗎？你是指一個……

(technical difficulty)

（技術問題）

and as the LFP battery grows in China and maybe in the future other parts of the world, what are your expectations there? And do you have any product that goes into that market?

而且隨著 LFP 電池在中國成長，未來也可能在世界其他地區成長，你對那方面有什麼預期？以及你們是否有任何產品供應到那個市場？

Yes. Thanks, P.J. Just checking my numbers to make sure I have this right. But -- so yes, your equivalency is correct. We're seeing -- or we saw last year about 0.5 million tonnes of purified phosphoric acid be redirected from fertilizers to batteries. Now that is equivalent to about 1 million tonnes of DAP. And what we're seeing in that market, it was last year, at least, a growth of virtually doubling over 1 year. So we've gone from 500,000 equivalents to 1 million equivalents. And even if that goes to1.5 million equivalent to 2 million equivalent we're going to see a heck of a lot of displaced phosphates not getting out of China. So that's the reason we feel fairly confident that our expectation for exports is reasonable.

是的。謝謝你，P.J. 我只是核對一下我的數字，確保我理解正確。不過——所以是的，你的換算是正確的。我們看到——或者說我們去年看到大約50萬公噸的精製磷酸從肥料用途轉向電池用途。這相當於大約100萬公噸的DAP。而我們在那個市場看到的是，至少在去年，成長幾乎在一年內翻倍。所以我們從50萬等量增加到100萬等量。即便它增加到150萬等量到200萬等量，我們也會看到大量被替代的磷酸鹽不會從中國出口出來。所以這就是我們相當有信心認為我們對出口的預期是合理的原因。

In terms of our own, we are not supplying any of that market at this stage. We are in the process of doing a pilot study now. We've done this table talk work, and we're now doing a pilot plant to get the design criteria and the costing for our own purified phosphoric acid. And I would expect to be saying more about that in the next 6 months or so, and we'll be talking about making an economic decision after that.

就我們自身而言，目前我們並沒有供應那個市場。我們現在正在進行一項試點研究。我們已經做了這些桌面研究工作，而現在正在做一個試驗工廠，以取得我們自有精製磷酸的設計準則與成本估算。我預期在接下來大約6個月左右會再多談一些，之後我們會討論做出經濟性決策。

Next question comes from Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自Mizuho的Christopher Parkinson。

You have a helpful outline on Slide 10, just given the sensitivities to DAP, MOP, so on and so forth. Can you speak to the potential year-on-year benefits from all 3 of your sources of ammonia as well as the average sulfur price, the way you see that trending in the first half. Just any color on that as it pertains to [DAP] margins.

你們在第10頁投影片上提供了一個很有幫助的概述，考量到對DAP、MOP等等的敏感度。你能談談你們三個氨來源以及平均硫磺價格，對年對年的潛在效益嗎？以及你們如何看待上半年這些趨勢？就其與[DAP]利潤率的關聯，請提供一些補充說明。

Sure. Thanks, Chris. I think what you're asking is, if I've got this right, is how is the stripping margin sensitivity to input prices, if you will. And what we expect for the year is, I think what we're seeing is we're seeing an increase in refinery activity, which is leading to a better supply of sulfur and probably making the sulfur market a little looser. But if DAP demand goes up a lot, that could tighten again. But again, that sort of sets itself out with price.

當然。謝謝，Chris。我想你問的是——如果我理解正確——也就是剝離利潤率（stripping margin）對投入價格的敏感度，換句話說。我們對今年的預期是：我們看到煉油活動增加，這帶來更好的硫磺供應，可能使硫磺市場稍微寬鬆一些。但如果DAP需求大幅上升，市場可能又會轉緊。不過同樣地，這種情況通常會透過價格自行反映出來。

And then on ammonia, what we're seeing is a big decline in the price of natural gas in Europe and that price of natural gas, of course, is driving down the price of natural gas here in the U.S. and also driving down the price of our nitrogen inputs. So our expectation is that, that will continue and then flatten. So will continue to decrease for a while, and then it's probably getting close to flattening now where you've got I think urea prices are down in that $300 range, and it can't really go that much lower than that or you'll start seeing production slow down again. So we expect that to happen, and we expect that -- over the year, stripping margins are actually going to be quite flat for us. In other words, the any drop in price will be met because of a drop in raw materials and vice versa.

至於氨，我們看到歐洲天然氣價格大幅下跌，而天然氣價格當然也在拉低美國這邊的天然氣價格，同時也在拉低我們的氮肥投入成本。因此我們的預期是，這種趨勢會持續一段時間然後趨於持平。也就是說，還會再下降一陣子，但現在可能已接近持平；我認為尿素價格已降到約300美元的區間，再低下去就會開始看到產量再次放緩。所以我們預期會出現那種情況，而且我們預期——在全年來看，我們的剝離利潤率其實會相當平坦。換言之，任何價格下跌都會被原料下跌所抵消，反之亦然。

The next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自Goldman Sachs的Adam Samuelson。

Maybe, Joc, just to clarify that last point on phosphate, stripping margins. So is the implication then that if you're able to ship, I think I heard 7.5 million tonnes to 8 million tonnes of product in 2023 or that would be the current kind of plan as you would sit here today with flat stripping margins that the EBIT -- you think your EBITDA is growing in phosphate?

Joc，也許只是釐清你剛才關於磷酸鹽、剝離利潤率的最後一點。所以其含意是：如果你們能在2023年出貨——我想我聽到的是——750萬到800萬公噸的產品，或者說以你們今天坐在這裡的角度，這會是目前的計畫；在剝離利潤率持平的情況下，EBIT——你認為你們的磷酸鹽業務EBITDA是在成長嗎？

And then the second question I had was just in Fertilizantes again, a bit more of a clarification on the drivers in the fourth quarter and the first quarter. How -- just the weakness in margins between the distribution and the upstream phosphate production, just both businesses will look similar from a margin perspective in the first quarter before normalizing thereafter. I just want to make sure I heard that right.

第二個問題是再回到Fertilizantes，想更釐清第四季與第一季的驅動因素。也就是——分銷端與上游磷酸鹽生產之間的利潤率走弱；兩個業務在第一季從利潤率角度看會相似，之後再恢復正常。我只是想確認我聽得是否正確。

So I'll answer the first one here, which was -- sorry, I just got to read. Yes, our volume. I think, is -- that's not an unreasonable expectation for volume. The question was in respect to what our production capabilities were. So I will qualify that and say that our -- we always are driven by what is the on-the-ground demand for our product and not necessarily what our production capabilities are. So there could be a gap between what our production capabilities are in our sales but that will depend. Likely, this year, we expect for both potash and phosphate demand will be good. So we expect to sell most of what we make. So that's not an unreasonable assumption.

我先回答第一個，也就是——抱歉，我得再讀一下。是的，我們的銷量。我認為——那樣的銷量預期並不不合理。問題是關於我們的產能能力。因此我會補充說明：我們——我們一向是由產品的實際終端需求所驅動，而不一定是由我們的產能能力所驅動。所以我們的產能能力與實際銷售之間可能會有落差，但那要視情況而定。很可能在今年，我們預期鉀肥與磷酸鹽的需求都會不錯。因此我們預期會賣出我們大部分的產量。所以那不是一個不合理的假設。

In terms of the pricing, yes, our expectation is that as the season gets moving, both phosphates and potash prices should move up at least somewhat. And I think in the case of potash, it could move up a lot, but -- certainly in phosphates, but we expect that phosphates will kind of balance off with a relatively flat stripping margin, if you will. So that's our basic prediction of where that would go. In terms of Brazil, I would say that both the production business and the distribution business have been equally impacted, one, by rising raw material costs, and the other by just the timing of sales versus purchases of third-party material. So with that in mind, you can think of it as returning back to more normalized level after quarter 1.

就定價而言，是的，我們的預期是，隨著旺季啟動，磷酸鹽與鉀肥價格都應該至少會有所上升。我認為就鉀肥而言，可能會上升很多；而——當然在磷酸鹽方面也是，但我們預期磷酸鹽大致會以相對持平的剝離利潤率來達到平衡（如果你願意這麼說）。這就是我們對其走勢的基本預測。至於巴西，我會說生產業務與分銷業務都同樣受到影響：一方面是原料成本上升，另一方面是第三方物料銷售與採購時點的差異。基於此，你可以把它視為在第一季之後回到較正常化的水準。

The next question comes from Richard Garchitorena with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自Wells Fargo的Richard Garchitorena。

Just wanted to touch on the plans to restart Colonsay. I guess when you look at the outlook and where we were a year ago when you were planning to expand further, when you start up, I guess how long will it take you to get back to that, I guess, 1.3 million run rate initially when it was shut. And then how are you thinking about moving forward in terms of expanding that capacity? Is it probably going to be more of a '24 event, assuming we have demand recover? Or is that on hold (inaudible) so the market recovers?

我想談談重啟Colonsay的計畫。我想當你看展望，以及回顧一年前你們計畫進一步擴產時的位置；當你們啟動後，我想問大概需要多久才能回到當初關停時的約130萬公噸初始運轉率？另外，你們對於未來擴充該產能是怎麼想的？假設需求回升，這可能會更像是2024年的事件嗎？還是說在市場復甦之前，這件事先暫緩（聽不清）？

Yes. Thanks, Richard. Look, the way I'd look at Colonsay is -- so when we expected the volumes would continue at the rate they were in, let's call it, the middle of the year to the first half of the year. That slowed down significantly in the third and fourth quarter, which was less than what we would expect. So reasonably, we shut down Colonsay. Now like I said earlier, we shut it down. We still have the employees. We still have everything ready to go. So it doesn't take much to restart. But what's happened in the meantime that has to be considered is we've added since that time and because of the slowdown, we've been able to add 2 new miners at Esterhazy. So very soon, Esterhazy will have an incremental capacity of 1 million tonnes. So if you add the 1.3-ish million tonne run rate of Colonsay plus 1 million tonnes of Esterhazy, it doesn't seem to me that we're going to need the second mill at Colonsay. So I would say that, generally, that would be on hold. And a matter of fact, I think the longer the demand waits, the later that Colonsay they would need -- could be down because of Esterhazy taking up the slack.

是的。謝謝你，Richard。你看，我對Colonsay的看法是——當我們原本預期出貨量會以當時的速度持續，我們就稱之為年中到上半年那段期間的速度。但第三、第四季明顯放緩，低於我們的預期。所以合理地，我們關停了Colonsay。現在如我先前所說，我們關停了它，但我們仍保留員工，所有設備也都隨時可用，所以重啟不需要太多時間。但同時必須考量的是：自那之後，因為放緩，我們已經在Esterhazy新增了2台新採礦機。因此很快地，Esterhazy將新增100萬公噸的產能。若把Colonsay約130萬公噸的運轉率再加上Esterhazy的100萬公噸，在我看來，我們似乎不需要Colonsay的第二座磨礦廠。所以我會說，一般而言，那會先暫緩。事實上，我認為需求等待得越久，Colonsay需要——可能就能因為Esterhazy補上缺口而維持停產更久。

The next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Vincent Andrews。

Joc, could you just talk about how you sort of view the shape of the year volumetrically in terms of seasonality and whether as we get after the U.S. spring season, which presumably is going to be quite strong, do you anticipate the supply chain entering a restocking phase? Or do you think they're going to want to have empty bins and there's going to have to be summer fill and all that? And I'm just curious because it seems like everybody is running hand to mouth right now, and I just can't tell whether you're sort of assuming that this is the end of hand to mouth as we get into spring, and then we go back to maybe sort of the supply chain having normal levels of inventory through the year. So what are your thoughts there?

Joc，你能談談你如何從出貨量角度看待今年的形狀（走勢），也就是季節性嗎？以及當我們度過美國春季旺季之後——那應該會相當強勁——你是否預期供應鏈會進入補庫存階段？還是你認為他們會想保持倉槽空空，然後需要夏季補貨等等？我之所以好奇，是因為看起來大家現在都是按需採購（hand to mouth），而我無法判斷你是否假設：當進入春季時，這種按需採購就結束了，然後供應鏈在全年又回到較正常的庫存水位。所以你怎麼看？

Thanks, Vincent. Look, I think that right now with the volatility in front of people, people are very concerned with waiting very long, if you will. So everything is always just in time. But of course, the dealers and our customers have to balance that with the need to make sure they get the product they need in time for season. So that's always the balance. My expectation and what we -- Jenny and I were at the Fertilizer Institute meeting a week or 2 ago, and almost through every customer, we're still hearing we would like to have our product in position for the start of the season. We're not going to refill until we need it. And then we want to end the season empty. So that's our expectation, that's what they'll do. But that also means that the summer fill program should be strong here in North America.

謝謝你，Vincent。你看，我認為現在在波動性擺在大家眼前的情況下，人們非常擔心等待太久，如果你願意這麼說的話。所以一切總是講求即時到位。但當然，經銷商和我們的客戶必須在這之間取得平衡，同時也要確保他們能在季節開始前及時拿到所需的產品。所以這一直都是個平衡。我們的預期——Jenny 和我在一到兩週前參加了肥料協會的會議，幾乎從每一位客戶那裡，我們仍然聽到的是：我們希望在季節開始時把產品先佈到位。我們不會在需要之前補庫存。然後我們希望在季末把庫存清空。所以這就是我們的預期，也是他們會做的事。但這也意味著，北美這邊的夏季補庫計畫應該會很強勁。

In Brazil, I think the -- because of the long lead time for everything, it will be a little different than that. And I think the Brazil market will be more stable throughout the year, and we'll see the normal pattern of third quarter being our strongest quarter. And like we've said here, even the safrinha season, we're starting to see some pretty strong demand signals at least. So we think that will continue. We think third quarter will be pretty normal with the U.S. fill. And then the one you've got to consider is, at some point, we need to see and we expect to see Central America, China, India, Asia, the potash going to the Indonesia and Malaysia. We expect all that has to ramp up because they've got a year where they just haven't used the products they need. So even if they're not refilling, they're going to have to buy.

在巴西，我認為——因為所有事情的前置期都很長——情況會有點不同。我認為巴西市場全年會更穩定，我們會看到第三季是我們最強的一季的正常模式。正如我們在這裡所說，即便是 safrinha（二季作）季節，我們至少已開始看到相當強的需求訊號。所以我們認為這會持續。我們認為第三季會相當正常，搭配美國的補庫。然後你還得考慮的一點是，在某個時間點，我們需要看到、也預期會看到中美洲、中國、印度、亞洲，鉀肥流向印尼與馬來西亞。我們預期這些都必須加速回升，因為他們有一整年幾乎沒有使用所需的產品。所以即使他們不補庫，他們也必須買。

The next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 Credit Suisse 的 Edlain Rodriguez。

So a quick question on farmers affordability. It has improved quite a bit as fertilizer prices declined over the past several months. So that's good for the farmers. But what's good for you is for fertilizer prices to start moving higher. But if they do, doesn't that bring back your affordability issue again? So my question is like how do you try to balance that delicate line?

我有個關於農民負擔能力的快速問題。過去幾個月肥料價格下跌後，負擔能力改善了不少。這對農民是好事。但對你們來說，好的情況是肥料價格開始走高。但如果價格上升，這不就又把負擔能力的問題帶回來了嗎？所以我的問題是，你們要如何在這條微妙的界線上取得平衡？

Yes, Edlain, this is a big challenge for us in that we sit in a global commodity market. And while we try to make sure that the spikes and the troughs are reasonable and that farmer economics stay good, what you see and what we saw last year in the start of the year was panic buying, if you will. So everybody was buying, they were very worried about getting their product. And then the farmer said, "Well, that's awfully expensive." And recognize last year, the farmer economics weren't bad. So the psychological piece took a toll.

是的，Edlain，這對我們來說是一個很大的挑戰，因為我們身處全球大宗商品市場。雖然我們努力確保價格的尖峰與谷底是合理的，並且讓農民的經濟狀況保持良好，但你看到的、以及我們去年年初看到的是某種恐慌性採購。也就是說，大家都在買，他們非常擔心拿不到產品。然後農民就說：「哇，這也太貴了。」而且要認清的是，去年農民的經濟狀況其實不差。所以心理層面造成了衝擊。

My fear this year is actually somewhat what you said, which is people wait to

我今年的擔憂其實有點像你說的那樣，也就是人們等到

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rush to get your product. And suddenly, there's another price spike that does hurt product -- hurt farmer affordability to the point where they're resistant to buying fertilizer again. But I will say, 1 year, you get away with it, the second year we're going to start to see yield drops. And if you start to see yield drops, you're going to see just for the underlying agricultural commodities. So I think it's really self-correcting this year, which is if they don't use the product, yield

才匆忙去搶購產品。然後突然又出現另一波價格飆升，確實會傷害產品——傷害農民的負擔能力，到了他們又抗拒再買肥料的程度。但我想說的是，一年你或許還能撐過去，第二年我們就會開始看到產量下滑。而一旦你開始看到產量下滑，你就會看到對基礎農產品的影響。所以我認為今年其實會自我修正：如果他們不用產品，產量

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audits will go up, which is going to drive the demand. So I think you can't control it. Hopefully, people buy early enough and we get through in a fairly rational way and farmer affordability stays reasonable.

審核（audits）就會上升，這會推動需求。所以我認為你無法控制它。希望大家能夠提早購買，我們能以相對理性的方式度過，而農民的負擔能力也能維持在合理水準。

The next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Josh Spector。

I just wanted to follow up on an earlier point around, I mean, similar to the prior question in terms of potash affordability. But maybe specifically with the markets that you said were more price sensitive when you're talking about Africa, Asia, et cetera. Are we at a point where that's not an issue today, and you're going to see or expect buying to return. And is there a range if prices move up $50 to $100 a tonne, that's still going to be a point where it's attractive for that region to buy? Or are we still at the point where that's still questionable?

我想跟進先前的一點，我的意思是，跟前一個問題類似，都是關於鉀肥負擔能力。但也許更具體地說，當你提到非洲、亞洲等等那些你說對價格更敏感的市場時——我們現在是否已經到了這不再是問題的階段，並且你會看到或預期採購會回來？如果價格每噸上漲 50 到 100 美元，對那些地區來說仍然會是有吸引力、願意買的區間嗎？還是我們仍然處在那仍然不太確定的階段？

Yes. Thanks, Josh. I think where -- as we look around the world, it really depends on where you're looking. Look, if you're buying fertilizers for -- and the vast majority of fertilizer is used for big crops and export crops. So if you're selling your crop into an international market where you can get the international price, then you're fine and the demand will be there. So if you think about North America, most of South America, Europe et cetera, yes, that's all fine. If you think about Africa, the problem in Africa, and the reason I would say, no, it's not the case, they still can't afford it in Africa is because they're buying for selling into an international market, they're buying for subsistence farming to feed themselves. So whether crop prices are high or not is almost irrelevant because it's how much [they] put into the

是的，謝謝，Josh。我認為——當我們放眼全球時，真的取決於你看的是哪個地方。你看，如果你買肥料是用在——而且絕大多數肥料是用在大宗作物與出口作物上——那麼如果你把作物賣到國際市場、能拿到國際價格，你就沒問題，需求也會在。所以如果你想到北美、南美大部分地區、歐洲等等，是的，那都沒問題。如果你想到非洲，非洲的問題、也是我會說「不，現在還不是」的原因，是他們在非洲仍然負擔不起，因為他們買肥料不是為了賣到國際市場，而是為了自給農業、養活自己。所以作物價格高不高幾乎無關緊要，關鍵在於他們能投入多少到

(technical difficulty)

（技術問題）

And that's where the supply gap ends up being most acute. And we've heard it from, for instance, the U.S. State Department, which says that parts of Africa are now moving from hunger into acute -- what you call it from hunger to starvation basically. So in Asia, yes, they'll be able to afford it, I think, but if you get to the poorest parts of the world, no. Now does that affect the overall market? Not really because those are not big users in the first place, but that's probably the most tragic part of this whole thing.

而這也正是供應缺口最為尖銳的地方。我們也從例如美國國務院那裡聽到，說非洲部分地區現在正從飢餓走向急性——怎麼說呢，基本上是從飢餓走向飢荒（starvation）。所以在亞洲，是的，我認為他們負擔得起；但如果你談到世界上最貧困的地區，就不行。那這會影響整體市場嗎？其實不太會，因為那些地方本來就不是主要用戶，但這大概是整件事最悲劇的部分。

The next question is from Jacob Bout with CIBC.

下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jacob Bout。

Wanted to go back to that discussion on Colonsay and Esterhazy. If I'm not mistaken, Esterhazy is your lowest cost potash mine by far. Just -- why wouldn't the next incremental tonne be coming from Esterhazy? Is there anything that we should be thinking about from a mill or hoist perspective or bringing on incremental capacity?

我想回到關於 Colonsay 和 Esterhazy 的討論。如果我沒記錯的話，Esterhazy 目前是你們成本最低的鉀肥礦，遠遠低於其他礦。那——為什麼下一個增量噸數不會來自 Esterhazy？從磨礦廠或提升井（hoist）的角度，或是導入增量產能方面，有沒有什麼是我們應該考慮的？

Yes. Thanks, Jacob, and good to have you back on the call. Yes, your comments are exactly correct. Esterhazy is by far our cheapest or our least expensive to operate mine. And you can think about this as each new miner that comes in, it gives us approximately 400-ish thousand tonnes of new capacity. And there is no limit. As we see it, we expect no limit on the hoist, and we will be plant limited at about the 1 million tonnes of incremental capacity that we've talked about bringing on. So we'll be plant limited by, let's call it, the middle to the end of this year. And at that stage, yes, Esterhazy -- we'll maximize tons from Esterhazy first and only use and then Belle Plaine and then use Colonsay as required.

是的。謝謝你，Jacob，也很高興你回到這通電話會議。是的，你的評論完全正確。Esterhazy 的確是我們營運成本最低、也就是最便宜的礦。你可以這樣想：每增加一台新的採礦機（miner），大約能帶來 40 萬噸左右的新產能。而且沒有上限。就我們所見，我們預期提升井（hoist）不會成為限制，我們會在我們談到要導入的約 100 萬噸增量產能上受到工廠端限制。所以我們會在大約今年年中到年底之間受到工廠產能限制。到那個階段，是的，Esterhazy——我們會先把 Esterhazy 的噸數最大化，然後才用 Belle Plaine，最後再視需要使用 Colonsay。

The next question comes from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong。

I just want to go back to LFP. We've seen a couple of LFP projects announced recently in the U.S. I'm kind of curious what's your view on the domestic LFP opportunity. And maybe this is a little bit early, given your grades on pilot testing here, but I appreciate any initial thoughts, like if you were to produce a purified phos acid for batteries, like what would be required for that to happen? Will they do that with the current rock that they have? Or do you need a different type of rock? Or what kind of upgrades would you need to do to your processing plans today? And what kind of costs would that involve?

我想回到 LFP。我們最近看到美國宣布了幾個 LFP 專案。我有點好奇你們對國內 LFP 機會的看法。也許現在談還有點早，畢竟你們還在做中試測試的品級評估，但我很感謝任何初步想法：如果你們要生產用於電池的高純磷酸（purified phos acid），需要具備哪些條件才能實現？他們會用目前手上的磷礦石就能做到嗎？還是需要不同類型的礦石？或者你們現有的加工流程需要做哪些升級？以及那大概會涉及什麼樣的成本？

So thanks, Andrew. Let me say, we've been in the testing phase and I can tell you fairly definitively, that we are capable of making the grades of purified phosphoric acid required for batteries. And as you said, there is a number of LFP lithium iron phosphate plants being talked about in the U.S. here. And we're in discussion with some of those. And obviously, there's nondisclosures for each of those sets of discussions. So I won't talk about specifics, but I can tell you, there is a huge desire amongst those battery manufacturers to have one, a shorter supply chain, i.e., a more stable supply chain out of the U.S. and secondly, a lot of these subsidies and stuff require that the U.S. content to be there.

謝謝，Andrew。讓我先說，我們一直在測試階段，我可以相當明確地告訴你，我們有能力製造電池所需等級的高純磷酸。而正如你所說，美國這裡正在討論建設多座 LFP（磷酸鐵鋰）工廠。我們也正在和其中一些進行討論。當然，這些討論各自都有保密協議。所以我不會談細節，但我可以告訴你，這些電池製造商非常渴望：第一，更短的供應鏈，也就是來自美國、更穩定的供應鏈；第二，許多補貼等等都要求必須具備美國本土含量。

So there's a number of reasons why the market, at least, is very interested in that. And what we're doing now in conjunction with doing the pilot work on this, which is going to give us the design criteria, tell us -- help us define what the costs of both capital and operating will be. But at the same time, we're doing market studies to understand what the final size of this market could be here in North America in particular. But remember, as we think about purified phosphoric acid, there's also the other industrial uses and food and everything else. So this could be quite a useful branch for us to decommoditize to some extent.

所以，市場至少對此非常感興趣的原因有很多。而我們現在在進行這項試點工作之際，同時也在配合推進，這將為我們提供設計準則，並告訴我們——幫助我們界定資本與營運兩方面的成本。但同時，我們也在做市場研究，以了解這個市場在北美、尤其是在這裡，最終可能達到的規模。不過請記住，當我們思考純化磷酸時，還有其他工業用途、食品等各方面。因此，這對我們而言可能是一個相當有用的分支，能在一定程度上讓我們去商品化。

The next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeff Zekauskas。

With fertilizer prices coming in, should working capital be roughly a source of $700 million in cash in 2023? And secondly, with all of the different ammonia facilities that are being proposed for the Gulf Coast, does it make sense in the future to buy more cost plus ammonia? Or are you happy with what you've got?

隨著肥料價格回落，2023 年營運資金是否大致會成為約 7 億美元的現金來源？第二，鑑於墨西哥灣沿岸正在提議興建的各種氨工廠，未來是否有必要購買更多成本加成（cost-plus）的氨？還是你們對目前的安排已經滿意？

Thanks, Jeff. Let me hit the -- these 2 in terms of -- I missed your first question. Sorry, I got...

謝謝你，Jeff。我先回答——這兩個問題，關於——我漏掉了你的第一個問題。抱歉，我剛剛……

Working capital.

營運資金。

Working capital. Yes, you depending on your assumptions, clearly, we are going to work our way through some product that is pretty high priced right now. And depending on what you assume for the final pricing, there's definitely going to be some cash coming into the system from working capital. So in other words, our working capital needs should go down with price, obviously. If I look at this year, I think our working capital has been almost all due to the price of third-party product. So the volumes of our inventory hasn't changed, but the value of that inventory has changed significantly. And that's not for produced product, that's for third-party purchase product.

營運資金。是的，取決於你的假設，顯然我們將逐步消化一些目前價格相當高的產品。而取決於你對最終定價的假設，營運資金確實會有一些現金回流到系統中。換句話說，隨著價格下降，我們的營運資金需求顯然也會下降。如果我看今年，我認為我們的營運資金幾乎完全是由第三方產品的價格所造成。因此，我們的庫存量並沒有改變，但庫存價值已大幅改變。而這不是自產產品，而是第三方採購的產品。

In terms of the ammonia, I think you've -- I hit that exactly on the head in terms of where we're going with our C&F contract, which is we've said that -- this was an 8-year contract with C&F. C&F has given us notice they want to renegotiate it. But if they had not done that, we probably would have as well. Now I think it's worth hedging part of our needs for ammonia with a cost-plus type contract, but maybe it won't be as high a volume as we've done in the past or it might be a different formula. But I think there's ways that is in both ours and C&F's interest to relook at that contract and look at how we price our ammonia going forward. So -- and there's others like OCI and whatnot that have obviously come into that market. So we see ourselves in a pretty good bargaining position for what we do going forward.

至於氨，我認為你——你正好點出了我們在 C&F 合約上的走向。我們曾說過——這是一份與 C&F 的 8 年期合約。C&F 已通知我們他們希望重新談判。但即便他們沒有這麼做，我們可能也會。現在我認為，用成本加成類型的合約來對沖我們部分氨需求是值得的，但量可能不會像過去那麼高，或可能採用不同的公式。不過我認為，有一些方式符合我們與 C&F 雙方的利益，去重新檢視該合約，並思考未來我們如何為氨定價。所以——而且像 OCI 等其他公司顯然也已進入該市場。因此，我們認為在未來的談判上，我們處於相當有利的議價位置。

The last question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

最後一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場（BMO Capital Markets）的 Joel Jackson。

I wanted to ask a bit more about Brazil to understand some of your color around margins. Obviously, a big margin reduction in Q4. I think you said you expect margins in Fertilizante to improve by the end of the year. Can you give a bit more color? Should we expect similar margins in Q1 and improving across the year? And when you say back to, you -- I think historical or average margin. But I don't really know what that is anymore because, obviously, you bought the Vale asset, the mix changed, margins went up with the higher commodity prices. You did a lot of work to improve the assets you have there, some optimization and synergies. What is historical margins in Fertilizante?

我想再多問一些關於巴西的情況，以了解你們對利潤率的看法。顯然，第四季利潤率大幅下降。我想你說過你預期 Fertilizante 的利潤率會在年底前改善。你能再多補充一些嗎？我們是否應該預期第一季的利潤率與第一季相近，並在全年逐步改善？另外，當你說回到——我想是歷史或平均利潤率。但我現在不太清楚那是什麼，因為顯然你們收購了 Vale 資產，組合改變了，隨著大宗商品價格走高利潤率也上升。你們也做了很多工作來改善那裡的資產，包括一些最佳化與協同效益。Fertilizante 的歷史利潤率是多少？

Yes. Thanks, Joel. So let me say, historically, we were talking specifically about the distribution margins. And if we look at the distribution margins over time, they've really ended up somewhere in that $30 to $40 per tonne. Now the production business, obviously much more price of phosphate and potash dependent. But if I look at the distribution business, that's not a bad place to start. In terms of how we expect this to play out, we're now buying product at today's price, but that product won't be sold until the end of quarter 1 and into quarter 2. So the product we're working our way through is the higher-priced product from quarter 4 that we were purchasing at that stage because there's that big lag in Brazil of, let's call it, 3 months. So we do expect margins, particularly distribution margins to be similar to what they were in quarter 4, but I may have been misunderstood when I said they were going to build over the year. Over the average of the year, we still expect them to be in that same range of $30 to $40. So that means they have to rebound fairly quickly and we fully expect they will.

是的。謝謝你，Joel。讓我先說，歷史上我們特別談的是分銷利潤率。如果我們看分銷利潤率的長期表現，最終大多落在每噸 30 到 40 美元之間。當然，生產業務則更依賴磷酸鹽與鉀肥的價格。但如果我看分銷業務，這是一個不錯的起點。至於我們預期會如何發展，我們現在是以今天的價格採購產品，但這些產品要到第一季末、並延續到第二季才會售出。因此，我們正在消化的是第四季的高價產品，因為在那個階段我們就是以那樣的價格採購，原因是巴西存在一個很大的滯後期，我們姑且稱之為約 3 個月。所以我們確實預期利潤率，特別是分銷利潤率，會與第四季相近；但當我說它們會在全年逐步回升時，可能被誤解了。以全年平均來看，我們仍預期它們會落在同樣的每噸 30 到 40 美元區間。這意味著它們必須相當快地反彈，而我們也完全預期會如此。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Joc O'Rourke for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Joc O'Rourke，請他做任何結語。

So thank you, everyone, for all your questions and your interest in us. To conclude our call, I'd just like to reiterate our key messages. Mosaic delivered record results in 2022 and we expect strong business conditions throughout 2023. Farmers around the globe have strong incentives to maximize their yield and fertilizer is in short supply in many parts of the world. So we expect strong demand and Mosaic is well positioned to deliver this for our customers. We are also delivering for our shareholders by returning essentially all of our free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases. So with that, thank you for joining our call, and please have a safe and happy day.

所以，感謝各位提出的所有問題以及對我們的關注。為了總結本次電話會議，我想再次重申我們的關鍵訊息。Mosaic 在 2022 年交出了創紀錄的業績，我們預期 2023 年全年商業環境將保持強勁。全球各地的農民都有強烈動機去最大化產量，而在世界許多地區肥料供應仍然短缺。因此，我們預期需求將保持強勁，而 Mosaic 也具備良好條件為客戶交付。我們也透過股利與股票回購，將基本上所有的自由現金流回饋給股東。那麼，感謝各位參與本次電話會議，祝各位平安愉快。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次電話會議已結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以中斷連線。