美盛公司 (MOS) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2022 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

Your host for today's call is Paul Massoud, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis of The Mosaic Company. Mr. Massoud, you may begin.

今天會議的主持人是美國美盛公司投資人關係與財務規劃及分析副總裁 Paul Massoud。Massoud 先生，請開始。

Thank you. Welcome to our first quarter 2022 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by a fireside chat as well as open Q&A; Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Senior Vice President, Global Strategic Marketing, will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝。歡迎參加我們 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Joc O'Rourke 發表，接著進行爐邊談話以及開放式問答；資深副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland 與資深副總裁、全球策略行銷 Jenny Wang 也將在場回答各位的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release furnished yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理階層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。

We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們的新聞稿與績效資料亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

現在我想把電話交給 Joc。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our first quarter 2022 earnings discussion. I hope you've had a chance to review our posted slides as well as our news release and performance data, which were made available on our website yesterday. I will provide some additional context before we respond to questions we received last night, and then we'll conclude with a live Q&A session.

早安。感謝各位參加我們 2022 年第一季財報討論。我希望各位已經有機會檢視我們已上傳的簡報，以及昨日在我們網站上提供的新聞稿與績效資料。在回應我們昨晚收到的問題之前，我會先提供一些補充背景，之後我們將以即時問答環節作結。

Mosaic delivered first quarter net income of $1.2 billion and earnings per share of $3.19. Adjusted EPS was $2.41, and adjusted EBITDA was $1.45 billion. Our results continue to highlight the positive evolution of our business, which reflect the contribution from Brazil, the additional production from the restart of Colonsay and the transition to K3, one of the largest and most efficient potash mines in the world.

美盛第一季淨利為 12 億美元，每股盈餘為 3.19 美元。調整後每股盈餘為 2.41 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 14.5 億美元。我們的結果持續凸顯業務正向演進，反映巴西業務的貢獻、Colonsay 重啟帶來的額外產量，以及向 K3 的轉換——K3 是全球最大且效率最高的鉀肥礦之一。

Phosphate segment adjusted EBITDA totaled $632 million, reflecting the impact of strong pricing, which more than offset higher input costs. Potash also benefited from higher prices as well as the transition to Esterhazy K3 and the elimination of brine inflow management costs. As a result, segment adjusted EBITDA totaled $651 million.

磷酸鹽事業部調整後 EBITDA 合計 6.32 億美元，反映強勁定價的影響，足以抵消較高的投入成本。鉀肥也受惠於較高價格，以及轉換至 Esterhazy K3 並消除鹵水湧入管理成本。因此，該事業部調整後 EBITDA 合計 6.51 億美元。

In Brazil, Mosaic Fertilizantes generated first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $233 million as the team capitalized on a strong market environment and its inventory position, particularly towards the end of the quarter as seasonal demand began to pick up. Looking forward, we continue to see agricultural market strength extending well beyond 2022. The year began with a tight agricultural market and elevated prices, reflecting a 20-year low in global grain and oilseed stock-to-use ratios.

在巴西，Mosaic Fertilizantes 第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.33 億美元，團隊把握強勁的市場環境與庫存部位，尤其在季末隨著季節性需求開始回升時更為明顯。展望未來，我們持續看到農業市場的強勢將延續至 2022 年之後。今年開局農業市場供需緊俏、價格高企，反映全球穀物與油籽的庫存使用比降至 20 年低點。

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the situation and pushed soft commodity prices even higher. Together, these 2 countries account for 16% of global grain and oilseed export market. With Ukraine's planting season now at risk in the coming year, and Russian crop export potentially also being constrained, the market is grappling with the potential of reduced supply of a number of key crops, which includes wheat and corn, but also oilseeds like soybeans, sunflowers and their respective oil.

俄烏衝突使情勢惡化，並將軟性商品價格推得更高。兩國合計占全球穀物與油籽出口市場的 16%。隨著烏克蘭來年的播種季面臨風險，且俄羅斯作物出口也可能受限，市場正面對多項關鍵作物供給可能減少的情境，其中包括小麥與玉米，也包括大豆、葵花籽等油籽及其相應的食用油。

This situation has amplified food security concerns and is resulting in protectionist government policies that will likely drive commodity prices even higher. As an example, last week, Indonesia placed a temporary ban on exports of palm oil, one of the most commonly used cooking oils in the world, to ensure domestic supply. All of this suggests elevated crop prices are likely to persist for the remainder of 2022 and beyond.

此情勢加劇了糧食安全疑慮，並導致保護主義的政府政策，可能進一步推升商品價格。舉例而言，上週印尼為確保國內供應，對棕櫚油（全球最常用的食用油之一）出口實施臨時禁令。綜合來看，這些因素顯示作物價格高檔很可能在 2022 年剩餘時間及其後持續。

The strength in crop prices, combined with global fertilizer industry supply constraints, have pushed nutrient prices higher. In potash, sanctions against Belarus and uncertainty over Russian exports are having an impact on supply. Global prices have pushed higher as buyers look to secure adequate volumes. The global phosphate market has also priced in uncertainty around Russian supply of both finished products and inputs like ammonia and sulfur, though we are seeing some movement of Russian phosphates today.

作物價格走強，加上全球肥料產業供給受限，推升了養分價格。在鉀肥方面，對白俄羅斯的制裁以及對俄羅斯出口的不確定性正在影響供給。隨著買方尋求確保足夠的採購量，全球價格已被推升。全球磷酸鹽市場也已反映俄羅斯在成品與投入品（如氨與硫）供應上的不確定性，儘管我們目前也看到部分俄羅斯磷酸鹽正在流通。

In addition, China's export restrictions remain in place. While we expect an easing of China's restrictions, we believe phosphate exports will drift lower over time as secular demand trends continue to grow, especially on the industrial side, from chemicals and electric vehicle lithium iron phosphate batteries.

此外，中國的出口限制仍然存在。雖然我們預期中國的限制將趨於放寬，但我們認為，隨著長期需求趨勢持續成長，磷酸鹽出口將隨時間逐步下滑，尤其是工業端需求，來自化學品以及電動車磷酸鐵鋰電池。

On the demand side, we expect global shipments of potash and phosphates to be down from 2021, but the cause of this is availability, not affordability. Consumption will be forced to adjust to available supply.

在需求端，我們預期全球鉀肥與磷酸鹽出貨量將較 2021 年下降，但原因在於供應可得性，而非可負擔性。消費將被迫依可用供給進行調整。

In North America, weather is indicating the possibility of a compressed application season, but growers remain incentivized to maximize yield. Today's crop prices more than offset input cost, which suggests that farmer profitability in 2022 will be at the second highest level in more than a decade.

在北美，天候顯示施肥季可能被壓縮，但種植戶仍有動機將產量最大化。當前作物價格足以抵消投入成本，顯示 2022 年農民獲利能力將達到十多年來第二高水準。

Similarly, grower economics have also improved in Brazil, thanks to rising soybean prices. In India, farmer demand for nutrients remains very strong, thanks to another good monsoon season and strong global grain prices, but availability is still lagging. In response to stronger grower demand and historically low domestic inventories, last week, the government increased fertilizer subsidies. We see this as a positive development that should help to meet some, but likely not all of India's significant pent-up demand.

同樣地，受惠於大豆價格上漲，巴西種植戶的經濟效益也有所改善。在印度，由於又一個良好的季風季以及強勁的全球穀物價格，農民對養分的需求仍非常強勁，但供應可得性仍落後。為回應更強的種植戶需求與歷史低位的國內庫存，上週政府提高了肥料補貼。我們認為這是正向發展，應可協助滿足印度部分、但可能無法完全滿足其龐大的累積需求。

As we look at our business in the context of today's global markets, we remain very optimistic. In potash, K3's ramp-up to the initially targeted 5.5 million tonnes per year is now complete. Logistical constraints and winter weather impacted first quarter shipments and production, but these issues appear to be largely behind us.

在當前全球市場背景下檢視我們的業務，我們仍然非常樂觀。在鉀肥方面，K3 產能爬坡至最初目標的每年 550 萬噸現已完成。物流限制與冬季天候影響了第一季出貨與生產，但這些問題看來大致已經過去。

In addition, Colonsay, which was down in March as rail constraints forced temporary curtailment, is now back online and operating at an expanded run rate of 1.3 million tonnes over our initial target of 1 million tonnes. In the second quarter, we expect sales volumes of 2.4 million to 2.6 million tonnes. Realized prices in the second quarter are expected to be $40 to $60 per tonne, higher than realized prices in the first quarter.

此外，Colonsay 因鐵路限制導致三月被迫暫時減產而停工，目前已重新上線，並以擴增後的年化 130 萬噸運轉，高於我們最初 100 萬噸的目標。第二季我們預期銷售量為 240 萬至 260 萬噸。第二季實現價格預期將較第一季高出每噸 40 至 60 美元。

In phosphates, we expect a recovery in volumes in 2022. Raw material costs have escalated, but we are well supplied to meet our production targets. In ammonia, we continue to benefit from a significant cost advantage, thanks to our internal production at Faustina and our supply agreement with CF Industries. In the first quarter, 80% of our ammonia needs were met by tonnes linked directly to Henry Hub (inaudible) and shielded from the price swings in the global ammonia market. As a result, our first quarter ammonia costs were roughly half of the benchmark prices.

在磷酸鹽方面，我們預期 2022 年出貨量將回升。原料成本已上升，但我們的供應充足，可達成生產目標。在氨方面，受惠於 Faustina 的內部生產以及與 CF Industries 的供應協議，我們持續享有顯著的成本優勢。第一季我們 80% 的氨需求由與 Henry Hub 直接連動的噸數（聽不清）供應，因而免受全球氨市場價格波動影響。因此，我們第一季氨成本約為基準價格的一半。

In the second quarter, we expect phosphate sales volumes of 1.9 million to 2.1 million tonnes. Our expected sales volumes reflect an improvement in logistics delays, somewhat offset by inventories well below historic levels. Second quarter phosphate prices on an FOB basis are expected to be $140 to $160 per tonne higher than first quarter prices. Price increases in the quarter are expected to significantly outpace the impact of higher raw material prices on our cost structure.

第二季我們預期磷酸鹽銷售量為 190 萬至 210 萬噸。我們的預期銷售量反映物流延遲改善，但部分被低於歷史水準的庫存所抵消。以 FOB 基礎計算，第二季磷酸鹽價格預期將較第一季高出每噸 140 至 160 美元。預期本季的漲價幅度將顯著超過原料價格上升對我們成本結構的影響。

For Mosaic Fertilizantes, we expect the business to continue reflecting the favorable market backdrop and our transformational efforts over the last 2 years. Seasonal demand began picking up late in the first quarter and should continue through the (inaudible) season. We expect to benefit as potash inventories, which were built during the fourth quarter, begin shipping to customers. We are seeing inflation affect our cost structure but believe ongoing optimization should offset much of the impact.

就 Mosaic Fertilizantes 而言，我們預期該業務將持續反映有利的市場背景，以及我們過去兩年的轉型努力。季節性需求在第一季末開始回升，並應會延續至（聽不清）季節。我們預期將受惠於第四季建立的鉀肥庫存開始出貨給客戶。我們看到通膨正在影響成本結構，但相信持續的最佳化可抵消大部分影響。

Given the direction of our business, we anticipate generating significant earnings and free cash flow in 2022. Returning capital to shareholders remains a key part of our strategy. We continue to expect returning up to 75% of our free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends, including the $463 million returned in the first quarter of 2022. We completed the $400 million accelerated share repurchase program announced last quarter and continue to repurchase shares through our existing authorization. As a reminder, last quarter, our Board also approved a new $1 billion authorization.

鑑於我們業務的走向，我們預期 2022 年將產生可觀的獲利與自由現金流。回饋股東資本仍是我們策略的關鍵部分。我們仍預期透過股票回購與股利的組合，將最多 75% 的自由現金流返還給股東，其中包括 2022 年第一季已返還的 4.63 億美元。我們已完成上季宣布的 4 億美元加速股票回購計畫，並持續在既有授權下回購股票。提醒各位，上季董事會亦核准新的 10 億美元回購授權。

In the area of balance sheet strength, we remain committed to reducing long-term debt by $1 billion. Part of that target was met with the retirement of $450 million last year, and we expect to reach the finish line later this year when another $550 million of long-term debt reaches maturity. Given our outlook for the year, we expect we'll also be able to continue investing wisely and efficiently in our business. We seek out high-returning, modest investments in areas like enlarging our footprint in Brazil, expansion of MicroEssentials and investments in soil health and biologics.

在資產負債表強度方面，我們仍致力於將長期負債降低10億美元。該目標的一部分已透過去年償還4.5億美元而達成，我們預期在今年稍晚，當另外5.5億美元的長期負債到期時，將可完成目標。基於我們對今年的展望，我們預期也能持續以審慎且有效率的方式投資於業務。我們尋求高報酬、規模適中的投資機會，例如擴大我們在巴西的布局、擴展MicroEssentials，以及投資於土壤健康與生物製劑。

With recent disruptions to global fertilizer supply, a situation we believe could extend for some time, we are also actively exploring debottlenecking opportunities to increase our fertilizer production as quickly as possible. In potash, we've already raised Colonsay's annual run rate to 1.3 million tonnes, up from our initial restart target of 1 million tonnes, and we see a path to reach 1.8 million to 2 million tonnes in the second half of 2023 through the restart of Colonsay's second mill.

鑑於近期全球肥料供應出現中斷，而我們認為此情況可能會延續一段時間，我們也正積極探索去瓶頸（debottlenecking）機會，以盡快提升肥料產量。在鉀肥方面，隨著Colonsay復產，我們已將其年化運轉率提高至130萬噸，高於最初設定的100萬噸重啟目標；並且我們看到一條可行路徑，透過重啟Colonsay的第二座磨礦廠，在2023年下半年將產量提升至180萬至200萬噸。

At Esterhazy, we are exploring the debottlenecking of the mills, which could add several hundred thousand tonnes by the second half of next year. In total, these initiatives could add roughly 1.5 million tonnes of potash production by the end of 2023. The cost for all these projects is expected to be less than $100 million.

在Esterhazy，我們正在評估磨礦廠的去瓶頸措施，這可能在明年下半年額外增加數十萬噸產量。整體而言，這些計畫到2023年底可望合計增加約150萬噸鉀肥產量。所有這些專案的成本預計低於1億美元。

In North American phosphates, we expect production to be roughly 1 million tonnes higher than the 2021 production total of 7.3 million tonnes as headwinds experienced last year are addressed and our assets run at more normal rates. In Brazil, we are pushing for improved recovery from our phosphate mines and we're exploring the expansion of our quarry mine that increases production and extends its life.

在北美磷酸鹽業務方面，隨著去年遭遇的不利因素獲得改善、資產運轉回到較正常的水準，我們預期產量將較2021年總產量730萬噸增加約100萬噸。在巴西，我們正推動提升磷礦的回收率，並評估擴建我們的露天採石礦，以提高產量並延長礦山壽命。

In total, when one considers our footprint in North America, our production in Brazil and our allocation of Ma'aden's finished product, by the end of 2023, we have the potential to see operating rates close to 25 million tonnes of total finished product well above our 2021 production total of 19.7 million tonnes.

整體而言，若考量我們在北美的布局、在巴西的產量，以及我們對Ma’aden成品的分配，到2023年底，我們的總成品潛在營運率可望接近2,500萬噸，顯著高於我們2021年的總產量1,970萬噸。

We take our mission of helping the world grow the food it needs very seriously. We believe the geopolitical issues that have impacted global supply during the first quarter will not be reversed anytime soon. As a result, we are pulling every lever we have to efficiently raise our production rates to help offset the supply shortages from other sources in ways that also creates value for shareholders.

我們非常重視「協助世界種植所需糧食」的使命。我們認為，第一季影響全球供應的地緣政治問題短期內不會逆轉。因此，我們正動用一切可用手段，以有效率的方式提高產能，協助彌補其他來源的供應缺口，同時也為股東創造價值。

With that, let's move on to the Q&A portion of the call.

接下來，我們進入本次電話會議的問答（Q&A）環節。

Thanks, Joc. Before we open lines for the live Q&A, we're going to address some of the most common questions we received last night after our materials were released.

謝謝你，Joc。在我們開放現場即時問答之前，我們先回應昨晚在我們發布資料後收到的一些最常見問題。

Our first question is on the issue of the potash market and the geopolitical issues that are impacting supply. What is Mosaic assuming for global supply and where replacement tonnes might be coming from?

第一個問題與鉀肥市場以及影響供應的地緣政治議題有關。Mosaic對全球供應的假設為何？替代噸數可能會從哪裡來？

Thank you. Together, Belarus and Russia represent close to 40% of the global potash market. Their absence is nearly impossible to replace, and today's prices reflect that. Belarus remains sanctioned and our previous assumption of those tonnes coming back midyear appears optimistic as most or all of their exports will be curtailed due to logistics. Russia is another factor following the invasion of Ukraine. While some tonnes are making it to market, the Swiss system expulsion makes shipment and transactions difficult. .

謝謝。白俄羅斯與俄羅斯合計約占全球鉀肥市場近40%。要替代它們的缺口幾乎不可能，而目前的價格也反映了這一點。白俄羅斯仍受到制裁，我們先前假設其噸數會在年中回歸的看法似乎過於樂觀，因為物流因素將使其大部分或全部出口受限。俄羅斯在入侵烏克蘭後也成為另一個變數。雖然仍有部分噸數進入市場，但被逐出瑞士系統使得運輸與交易變得困難。.

We expect that some buyers, especially in Asia and South America, will try to work around the hurdles, but they can't all be overcome. Remaining producers will struggle to make up those tonnes in the near term. That's why we're pushing ahead with our debottlenecking plans and expect others to do the same. We are expecting a tight potash market to extend well beyond 2022.

我們預期部分買家，特別是亞洲與南美的買家，會嘗試繞過這些障礙，但並非所有問題都能克服。其他生產商在短期內也難以補足這些噸數。這就是為什麼我們正推進去瓶頸計畫，並預期其他業者也會採取相同行動。我們預期鉀肥市場的緊俏狀態將延續至2022年之後很長一段時間。

A follow-up question on this issue. How much can Mosaic raise volumes to help fill the gap? Specifically, what is Mosaic doing to add those incremental 1.5 million tonnes?

針對此議題的追問：Mosaic最多能提高多少出貨量來協助填補缺口？具體而言，Mosaic正在做什麼來增加那額外的150萬噸？

Thanks, Paul. We are actively increasing productive capacity in our potash business. We're already running assets at a 10.8 million tonne run rate with the ramp-up of K3 and running Colonsay at 1.3 million tonnes per annum. As we move forward, we have project teams actively working on 2 additional miners for Esterhazy, the debottlenecking of the Esterhazy mills and the restart of the second Colonsay mill.

謝謝你，Paul。我們正積極提升鉀肥業務的產能。我們已隨著K3的爬坡增產，讓資產以1,080萬噸的年化運轉率運行，同時讓Colonsay以每年130萬噸運行。接下來，我們的專案團隊正積極推進Esterhazy新增2台採礦機、Esterhazy磨礦廠去瓶頸，以及重啟Colonsay的第二座磨礦廠。

Joc, some have asked about the potash price guidance for the second quarter. Can you elaborate on what is reflected in those figures?

Joc，有人詢問第二季鉀肥價格指引。你能進一步說明這些數字反映了什麼嗎？

Our price guidance of $40 to $60 per tonne increase over Q1 does include some conservatism. First, we are seeing today's market prices, but our realization timing will depend on our railways' ability to return to normal rates. We believe the sooner rail returns to normal, the sooner our price realization will reflect a shorter lag to market pricing.

我們的價格指引為較第一季每噸上升40至60美元，其中確實包含一定程度的保守假設。首先，我們看到的是當前市場價格，但我們的實現價格（realization）的時間點將取決於鐵路運輸能否恢復到正常運能。我們認為鐵路越快恢復正常，我們的實現價格就越快反映出與市場定價之間更短的落後期。

Let's shift focus to nutrient affordability. Are growers beginning to hesitate given the level of fertilizer prices?

我們把焦點轉向養分可負擔性。面對目前的肥料價格水準，種植戶是否開始猶豫？

Thank you, Paul. If there's anything that's inhibiting grower demand, it's availability of nutrients, not affordability. With near-term corn at $8.20 a bushel, near-term soybeans at $16-plus a bushel and palm oil at MYR 7,000 to MYR 8,000 per tonne, global growers are seeing solid profitability levels. In North America, buyer behavior is focused on near-term applications. Weather has forced a compressed planting season, but today's crop prices suggest growers will continue seeking maximum yields.

謝謝你，Paul。若有任何因素抑制種植戶需求，那是養分的可得性，而不是可負擔性。近期玉米價格為每蒲式耳8.20美元、近期黃豆為每蒲式耳16美元以上，棕櫚油為每噸7,000至8,000馬來西亞令吉（MYR），全球種植戶的獲利水準相當穩健。在北美，買方行為聚焦於近期施用。天候迫使播種季壓縮，但目前的作物價格顯示，種植戶仍會追求最大化產量。

In Brazil, grower appetite for fertilizers is quite strong, especially with recent crop price moves and a slightly weakening Brazilian real. In India, a good monsoon is predicted, and the government has just raised importer subsidies last week.

在巴西，種植戶對肥料的需求相當強勁，尤其是在近期作物價格上漲以及巴西雷亞爾略為走弱的背景下。在印度，預測季風良好，而政府也在上週剛提高進口商補貼。

If there's a threat to consumption, it's the lack of supply across both P&K, but global demand is there if the tonnes are available.

若消費存在威脅，那會是P與K兩者供應不足；但只要噸數供應到位，全球需求是存在的。

Clint, this last question is for you. Can you discuss our capital allocation priorities for 2022?

Clint，最後一個問題要請教你。你能談談我們2022年的資本配置優先順序嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Paul. So as we think about 2022, I don't think our capital allocation priorities have changed. I think we continue to look for ways to strengthen our business through prudently investing as well as strengthening our balance sheet as we've spoken about in the past. And I think as we look toward the balance of the year and our expectations around earnings and cash flow, I think there's an opportunity to return a significant amount of cash to shareholders as we've spoken about in the past.

當然。謝謝你，Paul。就2022年而言，我不認為我們的資本配置優先順序有改變。我認為我們仍會一方面透過審慎投資來強化業務，另一方面也如同過去所談，持續強化資產負債表。並且當我們展望今年剩餘時間，以及對獲利與現金流的預期時，我認為我們有機會如同先前所述，向股東返還相當可觀的現金。

I think as we look at our capital investment program, I think we're finding opportunities to improve reliability, to find opportunities for debottlenecking, to again be able to produce at elevated levels given the market environment that we're in today. Also think we have an opportunity to hit our debt target later this year with the maturity of another $550 million in debt that would get us to the $1 billion debt reduction target.

就資本投資計畫而言，我認為我們正在找到提升可靠度的機會，也在尋找去瓶頸的機會，使我們能在當前市場環境下維持較高的產出水準。同時我也認為，隨著今年稍晚另有5.5億美元債務到期，我們有機會達成10億美元的減債目標。

And again, as we look at the balance of the year and our expectations for the amount of free cash flow that we should generate, we should also be able to return a significant amount of cash to shareholders in line with what we've spoken about earlier.

同樣地，當我們看今年剩餘時間以及對應可產生的自由現金流規模之預期，我們也應能如同先前所談，向股東返還相當可觀的現金。

Well, thank you, everyone. And with that, I want to open it up to live Q&A.

好的，謝謝各位。接下來，我想開放現場即時問答。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Steve Byrne。

Yes. I'm curious to hear your view on any potential shifts in the global phosphate industry in -- with respect to the production of DAP versus MAP versus TSP, and maybe that's really more applicable to some of your competitors that don't have your ammonia cost advantage. Could this lead to more applications of TSP? Does that satisfy grower needs? And could this lead to maybe a premium price for DAP that could be to your advantage?

是的。我想了解你們對全球磷酸鹽產業可能出現的任何轉變之看法——特別是相較於MAP與TSP，DAP的生產方面；而這或許更適用於一些不具備你們這種氨成本優勢的競爭對手。這是否可能導致更多TSP的施用？那能滿足種植戶需求嗎？此外，這是否可能使DAP出現溢價價格，進而對你們有利？

Yes, Steve. Absolutely, we expect that with the ammonia shortage globally, there will be a shift in some situations to TSP. We understand that our Moroccan competitor is already shifting some of their production towards TSP. Again, the idea there being that we -- they maximize the amount of phosphate fertilizer that gets to market with this exact issue of a decrease in ammonia supply. This doesn't really impact us, of course, because of our very solid supply of ammonia.

是的，Steve。完全正確，我們預期在全球氨供應短缺的情況下，某些情境會轉向使用 TSP。我們了解我們的摩洛哥競爭對手已經把部分產量轉向 TSP。再次強調，背後的想法是我們——他們在氨供應減少這個確切問題下，將能夠投放到市場的磷肥數量最大化。當然，這對我們並沒有真正的影響，因為我們的氨供應非常穩固。

What I would also say, I guess, your second part of your question was, does this mean a premium for DAP, I wouldn't really expect a premium, but it probably will mean that it will be the first to sell right now. At this stage, any fertilizer is probably pretty easy to sell. So I suspect there will be a pretty good price for TSP right now as we've seen in the market.

我還想補充的是，我想你問題的第二部分是，這是否意味著 DAP 會有溢價。我不太預期會有溢價，但這可能意味著它會是目前最先賣掉的產品。在這個階段，任何肥料大概都相當容易銷售。所以我猜測，正如我們在市場上看到的那樣，TSP 現在會有相當不錯的價格。

And your next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson from Mizuho Securities.

下一個問題來自瑞穗證券（Mizuho Securities）的 Chris Parkinson。

Just given all the debate pertaining to the longevity of the potash shortfall, what are your team's latest thoughts in terms of the potential shortfall from Russian producers, your (inaudible) EuroChem just given, obviously, your assumptions for domestic demand, rail capacity in China as well as Baltic ports. And then also, probably more importantly, Belaruskali. So just how is your team basically balancing those shortfalls, not only for 2022, but what are your expectations within a reasonable range for '23 and '24?

鑑於關於鉀肥短缺持續時間的各種討論，你們團隊對於俄羅斯生產商可能造成的供給缺口（包括你們的（聽不清）EuroChem）最新看法是什麼？尤其考量到你們對國內需求的假設、中國的鐵路運力以及波羅的海港口的情況。然後同樣、也可能更重要的是 Belaruskali。你們團隊究竟如何在 2022 年不僅平衡這些缺口，對於 2023 與 2024 年在合理區間內的預期又是什麼？

Yes, Chris. I think in my prepared remarks, I mentioned that our original expectation was that the Belarusian sanctions might come off towards the middle of the year and past. As we look at it now, we don't see how that will be resolved, especially now with Belarus working with the Russians in terms of the invasion of Ukraine and that being a starting point for their -- some of their invasions.

是的，Chris。我想在我事先準備的發言中提到過，我們原先的預期是白俄羅斯的制裁可能會在年中左右解除，或在那之後解除。但就我們現在的觀察，我們看不出這會如何得到解決，特別是現在白俄羅斯在入侵烏克蘭方面與俄羅斯合作，而那也成為他們——某些入侵行動的起點。

So what -- as we look forward, we see a fairly large gap this year. I think we've talked about 8 million tonnes of exports being lost from Belarus and around 2 million tonnes from Russia. We think the Russians will find ways to get things out by probably next year. And so in 2023, we still expect Belarusian sanctions, but we think at least the Russians will find more ways to get their product to market.

因此，展望未來，我們認為今年會有相當大的缺口。我想我們談過，白俄羅斯將流失約 800 萬噸的出口量，俄羅斯約流失 200 萬噸。我們認為俄羅斯人可能在明年找到方法把貨運出去。因此在 2023 年，我們仍預期白俄羅斯制裁持續，但我們認為至少俄羅斯人會找到更多方法把產品送到市場。

So maybe it will be a 2-year problem. And then even then, it probably will take 2 to 4 years after that for the deficit to catch up.

所以也許這會是一個為期兩年的問題。而即便如此，之後可能還需要 2 到 4 年，供給缺口才會追上、得到彌補。

And your next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeff Zekauskas。

My first question is, are there any Belarusian tonnes that are now traveling by ocean freight? And if there are, out of which Russian port are they moving from?

我的第一個問題是，現在是否有任何白俄羅斯的噸數正透過海運運輸？如果有，是從哪一個俄羅斯港口出貨？

And secondly, for Clint, accounts payable, I think, went down $400 million sequentially. Why is that? And where should payables be?

第二個問題給 Clint：應付帳款我想按季下降了 4 億美元。為什麼會這樣？應付帳款應該落在什麼水準？

Okay, Jeff. Well, let me start. I just mentioned we expect BPC will reduce their exports by about 8 million tonnes. And that means that probably, what they're going to ship this year has already been shipped or at least the vast majority of it. We have not seen or heard or been able to track down any BPC tonnes on oceanborne freight. .

好的，Jeff。那我先開始。我剛提到我們預期 BPC 會把出口減少約 800 萬噸。這意味著他們今年可能要出貨的量，應該已經出掉了，或至少絕大多數已經出掉。我們沒有看到、也沒有聽到、也無法追蹤到任何 BPC 的噸數透過海運運輸。.

The only tonnes we've heard that have been exported is earlier in the piece, there was some exports by rail through a very circuitous route through to China. But I think even that has dried up now completely. And Clint, I'll leave it the next to you.

我們唯一聽說有出口的噸數是在更早之前，有一些透過鐵路、走非常迂迴的路線運到中國。但我想即便那樣，現在也已經完全乾涸了。Clint，接下來交給你。

Yes. Thanks, Joc. Jeff, I think what you're seeing is a combination of a couple of things. Typically, in our first quarter, we have kind of a seasonal dynamic where we have payables and accrued liabilities from the previous year, things like Canadian taxes payable, things like compensation payables. We also have -- as an example, in the fourth quarter, as the Brazil distribution business is building up its inventory in advance of season, a lot of those payables come due in the first quarter. So I think there's a seasonal dynamic to our working capital that you're seeing, and I would expect that to normalize as we go through the year.

是的，謝謝，Joc。Jeff，我認為你看到的是幾個因素的組合。通常在第一季，我們有一種季節性動態：會有前一年度的應付帳款與應計負債，例如加拿大應付稅款、應付薪酬等。另外也有——舉例來說，在第四季，當巴西通路業務為了旺季提前建立庫存時，其中許多應付帳款會在第一季到期。所以我認為你看到的是我們營運資金的季節性動態，我預期隨著年度推進會回到較正常的水準。

And your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews.

下一個問題來自 Vincent Andrews。

Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. I wanted to get your guys' sense of how summer fill is going to play out this year. And just sort of in terms of where do your customers in North America, what their desire to hold inventory and to build inventory over the summer? And do you think they'll have to be incentivized with price or some type of indexation? Or the demand there, that they're just going to be confident that the price will stay elevated all the way through the summer and into fall.

我是摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews。我想了解你們對今年夏季補庫（summer fill）將如何發展的看法。就北美客戶而言，他們在夏季持有庫存、建立庫存的意願如何？你們認為是否需要透過價格或某種指數化機制來提供誘因？或者需求端會認為價格會在整個夏季並延續到秋季都維持在高位，因此他們會有信心？

And then Clint, if I could just ask a follow-up on the working capital. Can you remind us how these higher ammonia prices flow through your working capital?

另外 Clint，如果我可以就營運資金追問一下：你能提醒我們這些較高的氨價格會如何反映到你們的營運資金中嗎？

Okay. Thanks, Vincent. Let me start by giving you just a quick update on what we think is going to happen in the summer fill program and working capital. I'll hand some of that over to Jenny as well. And then working capital, probably Clint can address that.

好的，謝謝，Vincent。我先簡要更新一下我們認為夏季補庫計畫以及營運資金可能會如何發展。我也會把其中一部分交給 Jenny。至於營運資金，Clint 應該可以回應。

First of all, the summer fill program, we're already seeing probably good confidence in the potash market that our buyers are coming to the table and looking for a product for summer fill. I think there with the high level of uncertainty of supply through Belorussia and Russia, that there really is an understanding that there will be a very strong demand and probably tough to get products. So we're seeing people come to the market quickly for that.

首先，關於夏季補庫計畫，我們已經看到鉀肥市場的信心相當不錯，買方正在回到談判桌前，尋求夏季補庫的產品。我認為在白俄羅斯與俄羅斯供應高度不確定的情況下，市場確實理解需求會非常強勁，而且產品可能很難取得。因此我們看到大家很快就進場採購。

In phosphates, I think there's a little more hesitation because there's a little more uncertainty whether the Russian tonnes will get to markets and whether we'll be able to supply all of their needs. But in general, we don't see a huge discounting coming through in the summer for either product. As a matter of fact, we expect that there will be pretty strong demand, and it will be pretty tight in the U.S. going into summer and then through into fall. Jenny, any comments from you?

在磷肥方面，我認為會稍微更猶豫一些，因為俄羅斯的噸數是否能到達市場、以及我們是否能滿足他們所有需求，仍有更多不確定性。但整體而言，我們不認為夏季兩種產品會出現大幅折價。事實上，我們預期需求會相當強勁，美國市場在進入夏季、並一路延續到秋季都會相當吃緊。Jenny，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I think probably, Joc, I just want to add one point related to the phosphate. Like you said, the customers are being cautious on phosphate. They are also watching when the Chinese government is going to losing control on export and which will define their ability to step into the market. I fully agree with you that the demand is going to be very strong, and we have seen the signals from the customers already.

是的。我想，Joc，我只想補充一點與磷肥相關的內容。正如你所說，客戶對磷肥較為謹慎。他們也在觀察中國政府何時會放鬆對出口的管控，而這將決定他們介入市場的能力。我完全同意你，需求會非常強勁，而且我們已經從客戶那邊看到相關訊號。

And then in terms of the working capital in ammonia, I'm going to hand that straight to Clint, but obviously, it does play in our finished product inventory as well as raw materials that we hold.

至於氨在營運資金上的影響，我會直接交給 Clint。不過很明顯，它也會反映在我們持有的成品庫存以及原材料上。

Yes, that's right, Joc. It actually moves through our working capital in a few different spots over kind of the evolution of buying raw materials through actually delivering and receiving payment from customers. So our raw materials globally, in total, when you look at our inventory balances, depending on price environment, it can be anywhere from $200 million to $400 million.

是的，沒錯，Joc。它其實會在營運資金的幾個不同環節中流動，從採購原材料一路到實際交付並向客戶收款的整個過程。以我們全球原材料來看，當你看我們的庫存餘額時，依價格環境不同，可能介於 2 億到 4 億美元之間。

I think it tends to be a little bit on the high end of that right now given the pricing environment that we're in. But then as we use those raw materials that will go into inventory -- but it will go into inventory, finished product at cost. And so it will migrate, obviously, into that account.

在目前的定價環境下，我認為它傾向於落在區間的高端。但當我們使用這些原材料時，它們會進入庫存——會以成本進入成品庫存。因此它會很明顯地移轉到那個科目中。

When we sell it, though, and that's again at cost, and so it's still a relatively small number, that will really be driven by volume of finished product. But once we sell and deliver it to customers, then it goes into our receivables. And that's where you see the full price of the finished goods. And that's where you will tend to see the receivables grow pretty materially because embedded in there is also our margin on top of the cost.

不過當我們銷售時，同樣是以成本結轉，所以仍是一個相對較小的數字，主要會由成品銷量所驅動。但一旦我們銷售並交付給客戶，它就會進入應收帳款。那裡反映的是成品的完整售價。你通常會看到應收帳款相當明顯地成長，因為其中也包含了我們在成本之上的利潤。

So I would say it travels really through our raw material inventory, then into finished product at a full costing and then into a receivables balance at kind of full sale price to our customer.

所以我會說，它確實是先經過我們的原材料庫存，接著以完整成本計入成品，然後以某種接近對客戶的完整銷售價格，進入應收帳款餘額。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

I was hoping to maybe dig a little bit more on capital allocation. And I think the comments on 2022 and the desire to return cash are pretty clear, small step-up in growth investments. And I guess I'm just trying to think on a multiyear basis, if high prices, high levels of profitability and cash flow persisted kind of where that desire for growth investment and the capacity for growth investments would be just in terms of things that have been in progress or things on the drawing board, long-lead equipment that you might have been looking at. Just trying to think about if this is the beginning of the next fertilizer cycle, just where -- how Mosaic is going to be participating from an investment perspective at that growth.

我希望能再深入一點談談資本配置。我認為你們對 2022 年的評論以及希望回饋現金的意圖都很清楚，成長投資也只是小幅增加。我想從多年期的角度思考：如果高價格、高獲利水準與現金流持續，對於成長投資的意願與成長投資的能力會落在哪裡——就你們正在推進的事項或仍在規劃中的事項而言，例如你們可能在看的長交期設備。只是想想，如果這是下一輪肥料週期的開始，Mosaic 將如何從投資角度參與這一波成長。

Sorry. Turned it the wrong way. Sorry. Thanks, Adam. In terms of this year, let's start there. Our capital allocation strategy hasn't changed this year at all. Our goals remain the same, strong balance sheet. We want to make sure we do get -- take down the $1 billion of debt. We want to continue to invest in our business, and we've got some really good, attractive short-term investments that we can make to increase production on the short term and of course because of that increased sales. And then the majority, of course, we expect this year, we're going to return to shareholders.

抱歉，轉錯方向了。抱歉。謝謝你，Adam。就今年而言，我們先從這裡開始。我們今年的資本配置策略完全沒有改變。我們的目標仍然相同：強健的資產負債表。我們要確保確實償還 10 億美元的債務。我們希望持續投資於業務，而且我們有一些非常好、具吸引力的短期投資，可以在短期內提高產量，當然也會因此增加銷售。然後今年的大部分資金，我們預期將回饋給股東。

In terms of looking at this from a multiyear perspective, at this stage, we don't see anything in the large investment range that we think is going to give our shareholders, our stakeholders superior value. So we're focusing on those minor capital, high-return, brownfield-type projects, debottlenecking of Esterhazy mills, increasing the number of mining machines at our K3 mine, restarting the Colonsay second mill, et cetera, and growing our footprint in Brazil. We think those are a much better way to add significant value to our shareholders over the midterm.

從多年期的角度來看，在現階段，我們看不到任何屬於大型投資範圍、能為股東與利害關係人帶來卓越價值的項目。因此我們聚焦於那些小額資本、高報酬的棕地型專案：例如 Esterhazy 礦廠的去瓶頸、在我們的 K3 礦場增加採礦機台、重啟 Colonsay 的第二座磨礦廠等等，並擴大我們在巴西的布局。我們認為，這些是在中期為股東創造顯著價值的更好方式。

Your next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar.

下一個問題來自 P.J. Juvekar。

Quick question on your reserve additions in phosphate at Fort Meade. Does that only increase reserves also or is it also production? And then I have a question for Jenny about the China phosphate. And you mentioned LFP battery for a couple of quarters. Is LFP a big -- that bigger -- is it that bigger part of the phosphorus market in China? I mean I'm wondering if you have any numbers around that.

關於你們在 Fort Meade 的磷酸鹽儲量新增，我有個快問：那只會增加儲量，還是也會增加產量？另外我有個問題想問 Jenny，關於中國的磷酸鹽。你們提到 LFP 電池已經提了好幾季。LFP 在中國的磷市場中是不是一個很——更大的——部分？我想知道你們是否有相關數字。

Okay. Thank you, P.J. Let me start with the reserves. The Fort Meade reserves, I think you're referring to is our South Fort Meade Eastern extension and -- this is a normal part of the ongoing development of our phosphate business.

好的，謝謝你，P.J.。我先從儲量談起。你提到的 Fort Meade 儲量，我想指的是我們 South Fort Meade 的東部延伸區——這是我們磷酸鹽業務持續開發過程中的正常一環。

So we're constantly buying new land, bringing in new reserves to our system. And what that does is that allows this business to run sustainably for a long, long time. I'd like to say we -- I came to the company and I think we had 35 to 40 years of reserves, and I have -- we have 35 to 40 years of reserves 15 years later. So you can see where every year, we're adding new reserves. So this is a big new area, but it's not expected to increase production per se, but to extend the life of our operations and our quality rock for many years to come.

所以我們一直在購買新土地，將新的儲量納入我們的系統。這樣做能讓這項業務在很長、很長的時間內可持續運作。我想說的是——我加入公司時，我記得我們大概有 35 到 40 年的儲量，而在 15 年後，我們仍然有 35 到 40 年的儲量。所以你可以看到，我們每年都在新增儲量。這是一個很大的新區域，但本身並不預期會直接提高產量，而是延長我們營運的壽命，並在未來多年維持高品質礦石供應。

In terms of lithium iron phosphate batteries, Jenny is right up on the supply and demand and what China has been doing particularly on that front. So I'm going to hand it over to Jenny directly.

至於磷酸鐵鋰電池，Jenny 對供需以及中國在這方面的作為非常熟悉。所以我直接把問題交給 Jenny。

Thanks, Joc. Yes, P.J., we started to talk about the LFP production in China last year in the background of increases of electrical vehicle and also the increases of the adoption of LFP in the EV battery. And this year, for the first quarter, we are seeing more than doubled EV penetration to start with. The second thing, we are seeing more than doubled adoption of LFP battery in the EV adoption. Therefore, the total LFP production in the first quarter this year has been more than doubled than the same time of last year. And it is reaching to the half of the total production in 2021. So we are seeing significant increases of LFP production, which are taking away of P205 from the fertilizer MAP, DAP production.

謝謝，Joc。是的，P.J.，我們去年開始談中國的 LFP 產量，背景是電動車的增加，以及 LFP 在電動車電池中的採用率提升。今年第一季，我們首先看到電動車滲透率較去年同期增加超過一倍。第二，我們看到在電動車採用中，LFP 電池的採用率也增加超過一倍。因此，今年第一季的 LFP 總產量已較去年同期增加超過一倍，並且已達到 2021 年總產量的一半。我們看到 LFP 產量顯著增加，這正在把 P2O5 從肥料用的 MAP、DAP 生產中分流出去。

And lastly, I want to say from the latest issued Chinese policy, which was issued on the seventh of April, the government has strictly controlled the new addition of MAP, DAP and the yellow phosphorus production capacity. So with that new restriction, we are going to foresee further reduction of fertilizer MAP, DAP with the shift of the P205 to other industrial use, especially on LFP.

最後我想說，根據最新發布的中國政策（4 月 7 日發布），政府已嚴格管控 MAP、DAP 以及黃磷新增產能。隨著這項新限制，我們預期在 P2O5 轉向其他工業用途、特別是 LFP 的情況下，肥料用 MAP、DAP 將進一步減少。

And let me remind you, P.J., that while electric vehicles have been the focus, stationary batteries for wind and solar power becoming more and more important because of the variability of those power sources. And while the nickel cad, lithium, nickel, cobalt batteries are probably smaller and lighter. If you've got a nonrestricted area, these lithium-ion phosphates may be the long-term solution.

另外提醒你，P.J.，雖然焦點一直在電動車，但用於風電與太陽能的固定式儲能電池也愈來愈重要，因為這些電源具有波動性。而鎳鎘、鋰鎳鈷電池可能更小、更輕；但如果是在不受限制的場域，這些磷酸鋰離子電池可能是長期解決方案。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong。

I've got 2 questions. First is on potash run rate and production. Now that Colonsay and K3 have been fully ramped up, should we expect operating rates to get back closer to 90%? Or maybe said another way, like what's the potential production from the 11 million-tonne run rate on operational capacity?

我有兩個問題。第一個是關於鉀肥的運轉率與產量。現在 Colonsay 和 K3 都已完全爬坡到位，我們是否應該預期營運率回到更接近 90%？或者換個說法，基於 1,100 萬噸的運轉率，在營運產能上潛在產量是多少？

And then my second question is on Ma'aden. Now that we've seen phosphate and ammonia prices moving up pretty significantly, what's the profit-generating potential out of Ma'aden? And then do you have any thoughts on participating in Ma'aden III?

第二個問題是關於 Ma'aden。現在我們看到磷酸鹽與氨的價格大幅上升，Ma'aden 的獲利潛力如何？另外，你們對參與 Ma'aden III 有什麼想法嗎？

Okay. Thanks, Andrew. Potash run rate, as you say, a 10.8 million tonnes per annum, which is a 1.3 million tonnes out of Colonsay now. In terms of Esterhazy, it's running at its 5.5 million-tonne basic capacity. We will be adding another 2 mining machines to Esterhazy. So that will go up a little bit from that as we not only complete, but optimize the run rate at there.

好的，謝謝你，Andrew。鉀肥運轉率方面，如你所說，目前是每年 1,080 萬噸，其中 Colonsay 現在貢獻 130 萬噸。至於 Esterhazy，它以 550 萬噸的基本產能在運行。我們將在 Esterhazy 再增加 2 台採礦機，因此隨著我們不僅完成、也在那裡優化運轉率，產量會再略有提升。

So overall, if you took a 90% or 85% operating factor, you're probably in that 9 million to 9.5 million tonnes of potash capacity right now and looking to move up from there as we look at increasing the Colonsay capacity to almost 2 million tonnes and Esterhazy, probably from the 5.5 million up to the 6.5 million tonnes.

所以整體而言，如果以 90% 或 85% 的運轉係數來看，你現在的鉀肥產能大概在 900 萬到 950 萬噸，並且隨著我們把 Colonsay 產能提高到接近 200 萬噸，以及 Esterhazy 可能從 550 萬噸提升到 650 萬噸，還會再往上走。

In terms of Ma'aden's profitability, I'm going to have to hand that over to Clint because I don't know the exact number, but I will tell you that Ma'aden is now profitable and they are contributing to our bottom line. However, you also need to note that Ma'aden's results are 1 quarter delayed. We only see 1 quarter behind. So there's a little bit of a lag there from the overall. But Clint, do you want to talk about that?

至於 Ma'aden 的獲利能力，我得把這題交給 Clint，因為我不知道確切數字；但我可以告訴你，Ma'aden 現在已經獲利，並且正在對我們的最終盈餘做出貢獻。不過你也需要注意，Ma'aden 的結果會延後 1 個季度。我們看到的是落後 1 季的數據，所以整體上會有一點時間差。Clint，你要談談嗎？

Yes. No, happy to. As you said, we -- remember that it is on a 1 quarter delay, but this quarter for the first quarter, which is representative of Q4 last year, equity earnings for Ma'aden was about $30 million to $31 million. So as Joc said, it is now profitable. I think you also keep in mind that because there's no cash to Mosaic associated with it at this point, maybe a year or 2 ago, we removed that from our EBITDA calculation. So that's something to keep in mind as well as we go forward.

是的，當然樂意。如你所說——請記得它是延後 1 個季度入帳。不過本季第一季（代表去年第四季）的 Ma'aden 權益法收益大約是 3,000 萬到 3,100 萬美元。所以如 Joc 所說，它現在已經獲利。我想你也要記住，因為目前 Mosaic 並沒有與之相關的現金流入，大概在一到兩年前，我們已把它從 EBITDA 的計算中移除。所以這也是往後需要一併考量的事項。

All right. Good point.

好。說得有道理。

And our next question is from Anya (sic) [Ben] Isaacson from Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行（Scotiabank）的 Anya（原音如此）[Ben] Isaacson。

I believe that's Ben Isaacson, operator?

我相信那是 Ben Isaacson，接線員？

And our next question is from Michael Piken from Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken。

Just wanted to talk a little bit about your retail operations down in Brazil. There's been some talk that potentially, consumption for the country might be off 20% or as much. And how is your retail business down there handling it? And what does it mean also for your wholesale business in terms of the type of margin opportunities that are there, if there's trouble attracting getting the imports in for whatever reasons?

我想稍微談一下你們在巴西的零售營運。外界有些說法認為，該國的消費可能會下滑 20% 甚至更多。你們在當地的零售業務如何因應？另外，就你們的批發業務而言，如果因為各種原因難以吸引或取得進口貨源，這對那裡的利潤空間機會意味著什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Michael. Well, let me say, yes, in fact, Brazil probably will be one of the areas that will have some trouble getting all of the fertilizer they may want or need. We have seen record fertilizer demand in Brazil year-over-year for a number of years now. Likely, that growth will probably stop or at least slow down a lot this year because of availability, not because of demand.

是的。謝謝你，Michael。嗯，我先說，是的，事實上巴西可能會是其中一個在取得其想要或需要的全部肥料方面會遇到一些困難的地區。過去好幾年我們都看到巴西的肥料需求年增創新高。今年這種成長很可能會停止，或至少大幅放緩，原因在於供應可得性，而不是需求。

However, when you look at our business, with our extremely good link into ourselves through our phosphate business and are linked to Canpotex for our potash, we expect that our -- we will actually have a pretty good opportunity because we'll be one of the retail/distribution businesses. It's very well supplied through this. And we've probably already seen some of that in that we had a very good inventory going into the start of the year. And now as demand is picking up, we're there to take advantage of that. Overall, however, there will be probably some people in Brazil that won't get the product they need or want.

不過，從我們的業務來看，憑藉我們透過磷酸鹽業務與自身之間極佳的連結，以及我們的鉀肥與 Canpotex 的連結，我們預期我們——我們其實會有相當不錯的機會，因為我們將會是少數能透過這些管道獲得良好供應的零售／通路業者之一。我們可能已經看到一些跡象：我們在年初時有非常好的庫存。現在隨著需求回升，我們能把握這個機會。不過整體而言，巴西可能會有一些人拿不到他們需要或想要的產品。

Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Spector from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀（UBS）的 Joshua Spector。

This is Lucas (inaudible) on for Josh. So I just wanted to go back to sort of what you're seeing from customers currently, if you could a bit. So in terms of sort of them being willing to kind of contract with Russia and Belarusian producers since the onset of the conflict, so I mean are contracts still being concluded? Or is that sort of completely dried up? And if it's in the process of drying up, is that kind of you think the volumes are going to kind of slow further there?

我是 Lucas（聽不清）代替 Josh 發問。我想回到你們目前從客戶端看到的情況，請你多談一點。就他們自衝突爆發以來是否仍願意與俄羅斯與白俄羅斯的生產商簽約而言，合約還在簽訂嗎？還是已經完全乾涸？如果正在乾涸的過程中，你認為那邊的量是否還會進一步放緩？

And then just sort of as a second part kind of in that. I was just trying to think about like what's your incentive to kind of push tonnes at the moment into China and India where the pricing is sort of $550 million versus the sort of much higher net back pricing you can get in Brazil or sort of in North America.

另外，作為第二部分，我在想你們目前把噸數推向中國和印度的誘因是什麼？那邊的價格大概是 5.5 億美元（原文如此），相較之下，你們在巴西或北美能取得的淨回收價格要高得多。

So as you kind of get any more incremental tonnes available, is there anything you can do to kind of push that into the more profitable markets given the tight supply situation? And could we sort of see a 2-tier market there developed between sort of what slipped between going to Asia, as you mentioned earlier, and sort of the higher, more profitable markets?

所以當你們有更多增量噸數可供分配時，在供應吃緊的情況下，有沒有什麼方式可以把它推向更有利可圖的市場？我們是否可能看到形成一個雙層市場：一邊是如你先前提到流向亞洲的部分，另一邊是價格更高、獲利更好的市場？

Okay. I'm not sure I fully understood your first question. Are you asking about the China and India contracts with Russia? On the first part of your question, on will those contracts dry up? If you've been muted, I'm going to assume that was your question, Lucas.

好的。我不確定我是否完全理解你的第一個問題。你是在問中國和印度與俄羅斯的合約嗎？關於你問題的第一部分——那些合約是否會乾涸？如果你被靜音了，我就先假設那是你的問題，Lucas。

Okay. So thank you, Lucas. On the first part of the question, which is are the contracts with Russia and China, India likely to dry up, certainly, in China, we have not seen the Chinese renew contracts with Belorussia or Russia. So other than the product coming by rail over the Euro mountain range, which is limited in volume to about 1.5 million tonnes a year, we're not seeing Russian or Belarusian tonnage come to China.

好的。謝謝你，Lucas。關於第一部分，也就是俄羅斯與中國、印度之間的合約是否可能乾涸：可以肯定的是，在中國，我們尚未看到中國與白俄羅斯或俄羅斯續約。除了經由鐵路穿越歐亞山脈（原文如此）運來的產品之外——其年量受限，大約每年 150 萬噸——我們沒有看到俄羅斯或白俄羅斯的噸數進入中國。

In terms of India, we have seen phosphates make its way to India from Russia. So one would assume that the Russians will also try to move potash to India if they're looking for places where they can sell that product.

至於印度，我們確實看到磷酸鹽從俄羅斯流向印度。因此可以推測，如果俄羅斯在尋找可銷售該產品的市場，他們也會嘗試把鉀肥運往印度。

In terms of the second piece of your question, you really only need to look at last year when the price to China and India was significantly lower than the market. And what we did was exactly what you said. We made our -- we certainly made all of our commitments to those markets. But beyond our basic commitments to the markets, any extra tonnes, we move to more profitable, higher priced markets. And there are significant opportunities for that this year. Last year, India actually renegotiated some of its pricing because of that. And you could see that happening again this year in both China and India if the prices, as they are, persist.

至於你問題的第二部分，你其實只要看看去年：對中國和印度的價格顯著低於市場。而我們做的正如你所說。我們——我們當然履行了對那些市場的所有承諾。但在滿足對這些市場的基本承諾之外，任何額外噸數，我們都會轉往更有利可圖、價格更高的市場。今年在這方面有很大的機會。去年印度實際上也因此重新協商了部分定價。如果目前這樣的價格持續下去，你可能會看到今年中國和印度也再次出現類似情況。

Your next question comes from the line of Adrien Tamagno from Berenberg.

下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Adrien Tamagno。

I have a question on ammonia. Can you remind us what is beyond the CF agreement? I believe it could be extended until 2022, but if you can remind us what needs to happen for this agreement to extend until then, that will be helpful. And in addition, do you have any option to increase your captive ammonia production more meaningfully?

我有一個關於氨的問題。你能提醒我們 CF 協議之後的安排是什麼嗎？我相信它可以延長到 2022 年，但如果你能提醒我們，要讓這份協議延長到那時需要發生什麼，會很有幫助。另外，你們是否有任何選項可以更有意義地提高自用（captive）氨的產量？

Yes. Thanks, Adrien. Well, let me start with the CF contract. The CF contract was written as an 8-year contract and with the option to extend at mutual agreement. So whether we would extend or not really depends on what the market looks like at the time. I would expect, though, because from a physical perspective, this is a good partnership. It's good for them and it's good for us, and I suspect we'll find a way to extend that beyond the original 8 years.

是的。謝謝你，Adrien。嗯，我先從 CF 合約說起。CF 合約原本是以 8 年期合約撰寫，並附有在雙方同意下可延長的選項。因此是否延長，主要取決於當時市場的樣貌。不過我預期，從實體運作的角度來看，這是一個良好的合作關係，對他們好、對我們也好，我想我們會找到方法把它延長到原本 8 年期之後。

Oh, yes. In terms of our captive production of ammonia at Faustina, we have looked at debottlenecking that a few times in the past. And I guess at these prices, it's probably -- we're relooking at that, but it's an older plant, and we're not sure that, that might -- would necessarily be the best place to be investing money right now.

哦，是的。至於我們在 Faustina 的自用氨產能，我們過去曾多次研究過去瓶頸（debottlenecking）。我想在目前這樣的價格下，我們可能正在重新評估，但那是一座較老的工廠，我們不確定現在把資金投在那裡是否一定是最佳選擇。

Thank you, presenters. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back over to Joc for any closing remarks.

謝謝各位簡報人員。目前沒有其他問題。我想把時間交回給 Joc 作結語。

Okay. Well, thank you all for all your questions. To conclude our call, I would like to reinforce some of our key points. First, this was a very good quarter for Mosaic. And our outlook for the remainder of 2022 remains strongly positive. We expect fertilizer supply to remain extremely tight for the foreseeable future as global crop prices support demand. And with these geopolitical situations restricting both fertilizer production and trade flows, we expect this to continue for some time.

好的。謝謝大家提出的所有問題。為了結束今天的電話會議，我想重申幾個重點。第一，這對 Mosaic 來說是一個非常好的季度。我們對 2022 年剩餘期間的展望仍然非常正面。隨著全球作物價格支撐需求，我們預期在可預見的未來肥料供應將持續極度吃緊。而在這些地緣政治情勢限制肥料生產與貿易流向的情況下，我們預期這種狀況還會持續一段時間。

At Mosaic, our mission to help the world grow the food it needs has never been more important than it is today, and we are working to produce every possible tonne of fertilizers so that we can help farmers around the world to maximize their production. And in that, we are confident that we can do our part while creating significant value for all of you, our shareholders. Thank you for joining our call. Have a good and safe day.

在 Mosaic，我們「協助世界種植所需糧食」的使命從未像今天這樣重要；我們正努力生產每一個可能的肥料噸數，以協助全球農民將產量最大化。對此，我們有信心在創造你們——我們股東——重大價值的同時，也能盡到我們的責任。感謝各位參與本次電話會議。祝各位有個美好且平安的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。