美盛公司 (MOS) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Your host for today's call is Paul Massoud, Vice President, Investor Relations of The Mosaic Company. Mr. Massoud, you may begin.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2021 年第三季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）今天會議的主持人是美國美盛公司投資人關係副總裁 Paul Massoud。Massoud 先生，您可以開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our third quarter 2021 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Joc O’Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by a fireside chat as well as open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Vice President of Global Strategic Marketing will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎各位參加我們 2021 年第三季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Joc O’Rourke 發表，隨後將進行爐邊談話以及開放式問答。資深副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland，以及全球策略行銷副總裁 Jenny Wang 也將在場回答各位的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於有關未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release furnished yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our third quarter press release and performance data attached as exhibits to yesterday's Form 8-K filing also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日提供的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們第三季新聞稿以及作為昨日 Form 8-K 申報附件之績效資料，也包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

現在我想把電話會議交給 Joc。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our third quarter earnings discussion. I hope you've had a chance to review our posted commentary and slides as well as our news release and performance data, which were made available on our website yesterday. I will provide some additional context before we respond to the questions we received last night, and then we'll conclude with a live Q&A session.

早安。感謝各位參與我們第三季財報討論。希望各位已經有機會閱讀我們已發布的評論與簡報，以及我們的新聞稿與績效資料；這些資料已於昨日在我們網站上提供。在回應我們昨晚收到的問題之前，我會先補充一些背景說明，接著我們將以即時問答環節作結。

Mosaic delivered excellent financial performance in the third quarter, with EBITDA reaching its highest level in more than a decade. Our business continues to benefit from the strong markets we've been discussing since the second half of 2020. With our North America production recovery and a strong order book, we expect the momentum to continue through the end of the year and into 2022.

Mosaic 在第三季交出優異的財務表現，EBITDA 達到十多年來的最高水準。自 2020 年下半年以來我們一直討論的強勁市場，持續為我們的業務帶來助益。隨著北美產能復原以及強勁的訂單簿，我們預期這股動能將延續至年底並進入 2022 年。

Before we get into our strong outlook, I want to briefly give you an update on the production issues we faced during the third quarter. As you'll remember, in June, our Esterhazy K1 and K2 potash mines experienced accelerated brine inflow, and we made the decision to stop operations approximately 6 months ahead of schedule. To help mitigate lost production, we further expedited the ramp-up of K3 and restarted Colonsay.

在談到我們強勁的展望之前，我想先簡要向各位更新第三季我們所面臨的生產問題。各位應該記得，6 月時我們 Esterhazy K1 與 K2 鉀肥礦出現鹵水流入加速的情況，因此我們決定將停產時間較原定時程提前約 6 個月。為協助降低產量損失，我們進一步加速 K3 的爬坡增產，並重啟 Colonsay。

The second shaft at K3 is now operational, which paves the way for us to reach full production in the first quarter of 2022. And at Colonsay, we hit our target run rate in October.

K3 的第二座豎井目前已投入運作，這為我們在 2022 年第一季達到滿產鋪平道路。而在 Colonsay，我們已於 10 月達到目標運轉率。

In phosphates, the damage from Hurricane Ida and the equipment failure at New Wales resulted in a 300,000 tonne reduction loss in the third quarter. Thanks to the efforts of our team, the fourth quarter production shortfall has been reduced to 100,000 tonnes, and operating rates should be normal by the end of the year. In both phosphates and potash, our team has worked diligently to ensure any shortfalls resulting from issues outside of our control were temporary.

在磷酸鹽業務方面，颶風艾達（Hurricane Ida）造成的損害以及 New Wales 的設備故障，導致第三季減產 30 萬公噸。在團隊努力下，第四季的產量缺口已縮小至 10 萬公噸，且營運稼動率應可在年底前恢復正常。無論在磷酸鹽或鉀肥業務，我們的團隊都勤勉投入，確保任何因不可控因素造成的短缺都只是暫時性的。

As we head into the end of the year, and into 2022, we are well positioned to take advantage of the current market.

隨著我們邁向年底並進入 2022 年，我們已做好充分準備，把握當前市場機會。

Shifting now to agricultural markets. We continue to see strength extending well into 2022. Grain stocks remain limited and global corn and soybean demand is elevated, driven in part by surging Chinese demand and rising global biofuel demand. As a result, agricultural commodity prices remain high and farmer income remains well above historic norms.

接著談農業市場。我們持續看到強勢態勢延伸至 2022 年。穀物庫存仍然偏低，全球玉米與黃豆需求維持高檔，部分原因來自中國需求激增以及全球生質燃料需求上升。因此，農產品價格維持高位，農民收入也持續顯著高於歷史常態。

That strength in crop markets, combined with global industry supply constraints, are the key drivers pushing fertilizer prices higher. In the Americas, demand is considerably stronger than we expected at the beginning of the year. Brazil is expected to once again set a record for fertilizer shipments in 2021.

作物市場的強勁表現，加上全球產業供給受限，是推升肥料價格走高的關鍵驅動因素。在美洲地區，需求明顯強於我們年初的預期。巴西預期將在 2021 年再次創下肥料出貨量新高。

Grower economics remain profitable despite the latest surges in nutrient prices, and this has been reflected in the significant order book into the end of the year and into the first half of 2022. In North America, demand continues to be strong and prices have followed reflecting a healthy domestic market benefiting from imports from a diverse group of suppliers.

儘管近期養分價格再度大幅上漲，種植戶的經濟效益仍維持獲利，這也反映在截至年底以及 2022 年上半年顯著的訂單簿上。在北美，需求持續強勁，價格亦隨之走高，反映出健康的國內市場，並受益於來自多元供應來源的進口。

Grower economics remain favorable in North America, although not quite as favorable as during the first half of the year. However, persistently low inventories and capacity constraints are underpinning the tight supply-demand balance as well as pricing.

北美種植戶的經濟效益仍然有利，雖然不如上半年那麼有利。然而，持續偏低的庫存與產能限制，支撐了緊俏的供需平衡以及價格水準。

In India, while farmer demand remains strong, and the government has recently acted to improve importer economics for phosphates, availability is still lagging. Recent moves by the governments will likely help in the recovery of Indian imports which lagged most of 2021 because of the disconnect between domestic subsidies and global prices. Given how depleted Indian inventories are, we see India as a source of pent-up demand, which should return to the market in 2022.

在印度，雖然農民需求仍然強勁，且政府近期已採取行動改善磷酸鹽進口商的經濟效益，但供應可得性仍然落後。政府近期的措施，可能有助於印度進口的復甦；由於國內補貼與全球價格脫節，印度進口在 2021 年大部分時間都落後。鑑於印度庫存消耗殆盡，我們認為印度是被壓抑需求的來源，應會在 2022 年重返市場。

In Southeast Asia, fertilizer demand is benefiting from the strength in palm oil prices, and China is incenting its farmers to maximize yields through subsidized crop prices. New supply of phosphates is limited. Chinese exports are expected to decline significantly in the fourth quarter and in the first half of 2022, reflecting the directive from China's National Development and Reform Commission that major producers halt all phosphate exports to ensure adequate domestic supply.

在東南亞，肥料需求受惠於棕櫚油價格走強，而中國正透過補貼作物價格來激勵農民最大化產量。磷酸鹽新增供給有限。受中國國家發展和改革委員會指示主要生產商停止所有磷酸鹽出口、以確保國內供應充足的影響，預期中國出口將在第四季及 2022 年上半年大幅下降。

In potash, demand growth continues to exceed new supply from higher operating rates announced by producers and prices continue to rise. Putting this all together, we expect further upside in realized pricing for phosphates and potash. Our fourth quarter order book is now about 90% committed and priced. As a result, we expect to see a sequential increase of $55 to $65 a tonne in realized phosphate prices and $110 to $130 a tonne in realized potash prices. We are seeing buyer appetite for first quarter commitments as well. All of this implies higher earnings in the fourth quarter and a very strong results continuing into 2022.

在鉀肥方面，需求成長持續超過生產商所宣布、透過提高稼動率帶來的新增供給，價格也持續上漲。綜合以上因素，我們預期磷酸鹽與鉀肥的實現價格仍有進一步上行空間。我們第四季訂單簿目前約有 90% 已承諾並完成定價。因此，我們預期磷酸鹽實現價格將季增每公噸 55 至 65 美元，鉀肥實現價格將季增每公噸 110 至 130 美元。我們也看到買方對第一季承諾量的意願。這些都意味著第四季獲利將更高，且非常強勁的表現將延續至 2022 年。

Our earnings are leading to substantial free cash flow generation, which has allowed us to make significant progress towards several commitments we've made. Earlier this year, we raised our regular dividend target by 50% to $0.30 a share. In October, our Board approved an additional regular dividend target increase of 50% to $0.45 per share effective in 2022.

我們的獲利帶來可觀的自由現金流，讓我們得以在多項既定承諾上取得重大進展。今年稍早，我們將例行股利目標上調 50% 至每股 0.30 美元。10 月，我們董事會核准再將例行股利目標額外上調 50% 至每股 0.45 美元，並於 2022 年起生效。

In August, we repaid $450 million in long-term debt towards our target of $1 billion of debt reduction. Also in August, we announced an expanded share repurchase program of $1 billion. Since that announcement, we have repurchased more than 950,000 shares. In addition to strengthening the balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders, we continue to evaluate further investments in the business. Capital expenditures are expected to total $1.3 billion in 2021, of which roughly $450 million is growth-related.

8月，我們償還了4.5億美元的長期債務，朝著削減10億美元債務的目標邁進。同樣在8月，我們宣布擴大10億美元的股票回購計畫。自該公告以來，我們已回購超過95萬股。除了強化資產負債表並向股東返還資本之外，我們也持續評估對業務的進一步投資。預計2021年的資本支出合計為13億美元，其中約4.5億美元與成長相關。

We continue to evaluate every opportunity that allows us to further strengthen the balance sheet, grow the business and return capital to our investors.

我們持續評估每一個機會，以進一步強化資產負債表、擴大業務並向投資人返還資本。

Now before I conclude my opening remarks, I want to take a moment to recognize the many contributions of Laura Gagnon and what she has made at Mosaic. As Head of Investor Relations for the last decade, Laura has been an invaluable adviser to me and to the entire leadership team. We are very grateful for her service and wish her all the best in her retirement. Paul Massoud has been promoted to lead IR, and Laura will stay on through the end of the year to help with the transition. Please join me in wishing her well.

在我結束開場致詞之前，我想花點時間肯定Laura Gagnon的諸多貢獻，以及她在Mosaic所做的一切。過去十年擔任投資人關係主管期間，Laura一直是我以及整個領導團隊不可或缺的顧問。我們非常感謝她的服務，並祝福她退休生活一切順利。Paul Massoud已獲晉升並將領導投資人關係工作，而Laura將留任至年底以協助交接。也請各位與我一同祝福她。

With that, let's move on to questions. Paul?

接下來，我們進入提問環節。Paul？

Joc, with continued strong nutrient pricing, we've received a number of questions on affordability and risk of potash and phosphate demand disruption. First, in what geographies are you seeing signs of potential demand destruction? And how do you think about the risks for both phosphates and potash?

Joc，在養分價格持續強勁的情況下，我們收到不少關於可負擔性以及鉀肥與磷肥需求受干擾風險的問題。首先，你在哪些地區看到潛在需求被破壞的跡象？你如何看待磷肥與鉀肥兩者的風險？

Thank you. Let me start by saying the areas where consumption has been lower, has been more about availability than it has been about demand destruction. And here, in China, because of strong pricing early in the year, the exports were high. However, now the Chinese government has stepped in and restricted exports, and we expect the exports to go very low in the last quarter and into quarter 1 of next year, which will allow for a better supply in the domestic market.

謝謝。我先說明一下：消費較低的地區，更多是供應可得性問題，而不是需求被破壞。以中國為例，由於年初價格強勁，出口量很高。不過目前中國政府已介入並限制出口，我們預期在第四季以及明年第一季出口將降至很低，這將有助於改善國內市場供應。

In terms of India, the inability to secure P&K has not been about farmer demand but importer economics. The inability or inadequate subsidies have really been what's driven the inability of the importers to economically bring product into that jurisdiction. However, what we do expect to see based on those 2 is pent-up demand in both China and India for early next year and into the spring season. So with that, I'm going to throw it over to Jenny to really talk about the details of fertilizer affordability in our key markets.

至於印度，無法取得磷鉀肥（P&K）並非農民需求問題，而是進口商的經濟性問題。補貼不足或無法到位，才是真正導致進口商無法在經濟上將產品引進該市場的原因。不過，基於這兩點，我們預期明年初至春耕季，中國與印度都會出現被壓抑的需求釋放。因此，我把問題交給Jenny，請她更詳細說明我們主要市場的肥料可負擔性。

Thanks, Joc. I think you covered India and China. The reduced demand in 2021 is going to be the pent-up demand for 2022. We feel very confident that 2 markets will come back with a very strong demand in 2022. In the rest of the world, we have not really seen a major size of demand destruction. Even in Brazil, the barter ratio is less favorable than the previous years. We still have seen demand from the growers, and we actually have sold over 10% of the summer crop nutrient already.

謝謝，Joc。我想你已涵蓋印度與中國。2021年的需求減少，將轉化為2022年的被壓抑需求。我們非常有信心，這兩個市場在2022年會以非常強勁的需求回歸。在世界其他地區，我們並未真正看到大規模的需求被破壞。即使在巴西，以物易物比率不如往年有利。我們仍看到種植戶的需求，且我們其實已售出超過10%的夏季作物養分需求量。

Can you compare and contrast 2021 with 2008 in terms of affordability, inventory, soil levels?

就可負擔性、庫存、土壤養分水準而言，你能比較並對照2021年與2008年嗎？

Yes. Thank you. Let me start with soil levels. We don't have perfect insight into the soil inventory per se. But what we do have is we have some studies by the likes of the University of Illinois that show that over the last 10 years, actual soil inventories have decreased. And that's particularly as we've used more precision agriculture, which allows you to put the right amount of fertilizer down. But it also means you have to replace it every year.

可以。謝謝。我先從土壤水準談起。我們對土壤庫存本身並沒有完美的掌握。但我們有一些研究，例如伊利諾大學的研究顯示，過去10年實際的土壤養分庫存已下降。這尤其與我們採用更多精準農業有關，精準農業讓你能施用恰當的肥料用量。但這也意味著你必須每年補充。

And of course, in Brazil, with the depleted soil, that has to be replaced every year. So there is definitely on-ground demand that will be there next year. In terms of channel inventory, we see that as being low in almost every jurisdiction. There is no place around the globe where we see any kind of buildup of channel inventory. And that's fundamentally different than it was 10 years ago where you had large amounts of inventory, not only of the fertilizers, but large inventories of crops like grains and oilseeds.

當然，在巴西，由於土壤耗竭，每年都必須補充。因此，明年確實會存在實際的終端需求。就通路庫存而言，我們看到幾乎所有地區都處於低水位。在全球任何地方，我們都沒有看到通路庫存有任何累積的情況。這與10年前根本不同；當時不僅肥料庫存量很大，穀物與油籽等作物的庫存也很高。

So this turnaround is quite different. And so as we look forward, we see affordability fine right now, and we expect that affordability will be good because either price will have to go up for grains and oilseeds, which will drive long-term fertilizer or they will plant less, which means that prices for grains and oilseed will go up. So in other words, the cure for high prices is high prices.

因此，這一輪的復甦相當不同。展望未來，我們認為目前可負擔性良好，且預期可負擔性將維持不錯，因為要嘛穀物與油籽價格必須上漲，進而支撐長期的肥料需求；要嘛農民會減少種植，這也會使穀物與油籽價格上漲。換句話說，高價格的解方就是高價格。

Joc, how are India's subsidies impacting affordability?

Joc，印度的補貼如何影響可負擔性？

Well, at a farmer level, it's a controlled market. So it's very difficult to compare affordability at the farm level. Certainly, we know that on-farm demand for both phosphates and potash is very strong. At an importer level, the gap between global pricing and the retail price has been such that the importer economics are poor, which means they're not importing, which means that the product isn't available to the farmer. And really, that goes for both potash and phosphate.

嗯，在農民層面，這是一個受管制的市場。因此很難在農場層級比較可負擔性。可以確定的是，我們知道農場端對磷肥與鉀肥的需求都非常強勁。在進口商層面，全球價格與零售價格之間的落差使得進口商的經濟性很差，導致他們不進口，進而使產品無法供應給農民。而且這同時適用於鉀肥與磷肥。

Let me add, as we move into 2022, there is a lot of pent-up demand in India. And we fully expect that the government will have to act and increase subsidies to allow the farmers to get the product they're going to need.

我補充一下，隨著我們進入2022年，印度存在大量被壓抑的需求。我們完全預期政府必須採取行動並提高補貼，讓農民能取得他們所需的產品。

Another topic that generated quite a few questions, including from Adam Samuelson at Goldman Sachs and Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley, China's phosphate market, especially given the recent change in China's export policy. First part of this question is what are our expectations for exports this year and next year? And how is that being impacted by changes in China's production volumes?

另一個引發不少提問的主題（包括高盛的Adam Samuelson與摩根士丹利的Vincent Andrews提出的問題）是中國的磷肥市場，特別是考量到中國近期出口政策的變動。這個問題的第一部分是：我們對今年與明年的出口有何預期？而中國產量變化又將如何影響？

Well, thank you. This year, we're expecting China's total exports to run just over 10 million tonnes. But as we've seen recently, that has led to fairly large deficits domestically. So the government has stepped in, put on export restrictions, which are now taking effect. We don't expect a whole lot of Q4 exports or probably first quarter 2022. After that, we do expect things to return to normal. So for this year, we're expecting a little over 10 million tonnes of exports. Next year, we think that will return back to the, say, 9.5 or 9.3 that we've had in previous years. But year-over-year, we should be down about 1.5 million tonnes from where we were this year.

好的，謝謝。今年我們預期中國總出口量將略高於1,000萬噸。但如近期所見，這已導致國內出現相當大的供應缺口。因此政府已介入並實施出口限制，且目前正開始生效。我們預期第四季出口不會太多，2022年第一季可能也是如此。之後，我們預期情況會回歸正常。因此，今年我們預期出口略高於1,000萬噸。明年我們認為將回到以往約950萬或930萬噸的水準。但以年對年來看，明年將比今年少約150萬噸。

Now we also see a long-term decline in production of phosphate fertilizers for agricultural use. That means that the phosphoric acid is starting to find its way into a lot of other industrial products, including these lithium iron phosphate batteries and a number of other areas. So what we see is a declining production over time and probably a restriction of availability into the phosphate fertilizer market. So that means that over time, we should see a decrease of exports from China.

我們現在也看到用於農業用途的磷酸鹽肥料產量出現長期下滑。這意味著磷酸開始流向許多其他工業產品，包括這些磷酸鐵鋰電池以及其他多個領域。因此，我們看到的是產量隨時間下降，且磷酸鹽肥料市場的供應可得性可能會受到限制。因此，這也意味著隨著時間推移，我們應該會看到中國的出口減少。

Chris Parkinson from Mizuho and Michael Piken from Cleveland Research both asked about the impact of ammonia on our phosphate business and how much spot ammonia we'll need to purchase in the fourth quarter.

Mizuho 的 Chris Parkinson 與 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken 都詢問了氨對我們磷酸鹽業務的影響，以及我們在第四季需要購買多少現貨氨。

Thank you, gentlemen. So let me just start by reminding everyone, our ammonia is sourced from 3 different sources. First, our Faustina ammonia plant, which is obviously at cost, including the cost of Henry Hub natural gas; our CF contract, which we've maximized at the 800,000 short tonnes per year at this stage; and then, of course, open market purchases. This quarter, we're looking at approximately 20% to 25% will probably come from open market purchases.

謝謝各位。我先提醒大家，我們的氨來自 3 個不同來源。第一，我們的 Faustina 氨工廠，顯然是以成本供應，包含 Henry Hub 天然氣成本；第二，我們與 CF 的合約，目前已在此階段把年供應量最大化至 80 萬短噸；第三，當然是公開市場採購。本季我們預估約有 20% 到 25% 可能會來自公開市場採購。

As such, what we expect to see is about a $5 to $10 increase per tonne of our raw materials. And that's based on market changes in ammonia plus a relatively flat sulfur pricing environment.

因此，我們預期原物料成本每噸將增加約 5 到 10 美元。這是基於氨的市場變動，加上硫磺價格環境相對持平。

We had a handful of questions asking about our potash production assets, including questions from Seth Goldstein of Morningstar and Andrew Wong at RBC. Both asked details on how K3 will ramp and how total production volumes and costs will evolve in 2022.

我們收到一些關於鉀肥生產資產的提問，包括 Morningstar 的 Seth Goldstein 與 RBC 的 Andrew Wong 的問題。兩位都詢問 K3 將如何爬坡，以及 2022 年總產量與成本將如何演變的細節。

Thank you. Let me start by saying that the ramp-up of K3 is going very well. We have just handed over the south hoist system to operations, so that is now operational. So we have both hoists operational. And as we increase the number of 4-rotor miners between now and first quarter, we will hit full production by the end of first quarter. So that means that very soon, we'll be running that mine at full production again.

謝謝。我先說，K3 的爬坡進展非常順利。我們剛把南側提升井系統移交給營運端，因此現在已投入運作。所以我們兩套提升系統都已運轉。隨著我們在現在到第一季之間增加 4 轉子採礦機的數量，我們將在第一季末達到滿產。這表示很快我們就會再次以滿產狀態運行該礦場。

Now in terms of the other piece, I just want to highlight is we've also been very successful at starting up our Colonsay mine. That operation is now running at its expected rate of 100,000 tonnes per month-ish to about 1 million tonnes a year. We expect between the 2 of them, we will have actually more incremental production by the first quarter of next year.

至於另一部分，我也想強調，我們在啟動 Colonsay 礦方面也非常成功。該營運目前以預期的速率運行，約每月 10 萬噸左右，約合每年 100 萬噸。我們預期兩者合計，到明年第一季我們實際上將有更多的增量產量。

Steve Byrne from Bank of America and Adrien Tamagno from Berenberg as well as others are asking about our product pricing strategy, how we think about forward sales, how far ahead have we sold and how much of our first half volumes might already be committed.

美國銀行的 Steve Byrne 與 Berenberg 的 Adrien Tamagno 以及其他人詢問我們的產品定價策略、我們如何看待遠期銷售、我們已提前賣到多遠，以及我們上半年銷量中有多少可能已經承諾。

Thank you, gentlemen. Well, let me start by saying availability is a big concern across a number of our regions. And what we're seeing today is actually a lot of inbounds, but we're being very careful about which geographies we're selling into and the amounts we're forward selling. So while the demand is there, we're still being cautious. I'm going to let Jenny give you the details on that.

謝謝各位。我先說，可得性在我們多個地區都是一個重大關切。我們今天實際上看到很多主動詢價，但我們在選擇銷售的地理區域以及遠期銷售的數量上都非常謹慎。因此，雖然需求存在，我們仍保持審慎。我會請 Jenny 提供相關細節。

Sure, Joc. We have seen a strong demand from customers, especially in North America and Brazil. We began to sell some modest amount of the tonnes for Q1 and even we've started to sell the tonnes into Q2 as well. These are all good indications of continuous strength of the market, and we feel good about that.

好的，Joc。我們看到客戶需求強勁，特別是在北美與巴西。我們已開始為第一季（Q1）銷售一些適度的噸數，甚至也開始把部分噸數賣到第二季（Q2）。這些都是市場持續強勁的良好跡象，我們對此感到樂觀。

Joel Jackson of BMO and John Roberts of UBS are asking about Mosaic Fertilizantes. Given the strength of our margins over the past few quarters, is this being driven by distribution or production? And how much are co-products like gypsum sales contributing to this?

BMO 的 Joel Jackson 與 UBS 的 John Roberts 詢問 Mosaic Fertilizantes。鑑於過去幾季我們的利潤率表現強勁，這是由通路（分銷）還是生產所驅動？以及石膏等副產品銷售對此貢獻有多少？

Well, thank you, gentlemen. First of all, let me say, Mosaic Fertilizantes is an integrated business, though it is the combined benefit of distribution with production that has really driven our results there. Part of the strength has obviously been in the markets, but we've also made tremendous progress ourselves of transforming the business, first of all, in the $300 million of synergies we found and then more recently, we've just exceeded our $200 million EBITDA improvement target through transformation.

好的，謝謝各位。首先我想說，Mosaic Fertilizantes 是一個垂直整合的業務，而真正推動我們在那裡業績的，是分銷與生產結合所帶來的綜效。部分強勁表現顯然來自市場，但我們自身也在轉型業務方面取得了巨大進展：首先是我們找到的 3 億美元協同效益；而更近期，我們透過轉型已超越 2 億美元 EBITDA 改善目標。

So remember, the pro forma at the time of purchase was about $60 million EBITDA per year, and we just did $300 million in a quarter. So you can see where we've extracted significant value and has dropped straight to the bottom line. And in terms of co-products, they are making a significant contribution, I think, certainly in the level of $50 million to $60 million of sales a year from those co-products.

請記得，收購時的擬制（pro forma）水準約為每年 6,000 萬美元 EBITDA，而我們單季就做到 3 億美元。因此你可以看到，我們萃取了顯著價值，並直接反映到最終盈餘。至於副產品，我認為它們確實做出顯著貢獻，副產品銷售每年大約在 5,000 萬到 6,000 萬美元的水準。

A number of analysts, including Andrew Wong from RBC and Rikin Patel from Exane have asked about capital allocation. We'll break this up into a couple of questions. First, can you discuss what to expect for capital expenditures going forward in terms of new growth or major investments and sustaining capital?

多位分析師，包括 RBC 的 Andrew Wong 與 Exane 的 Rikin Patel，詢問資本配置。我們會把這拆成幾個問題。首先，能否談談未來資本支出在新成長或重大投資，以及維持性資本支出方面的預期？

Thank you. I'm going to start by giving a little bit and then hand it over to Clint for some of the detail. But over the next 5 years, we do expect CapEx to trend lower. Growth CapEx will certainly decrease at the end of K3. But again, as part of our capital allocation, we do expect to reinvest in the business over time. So there will be some reinvestment that we will make. And I'm going to -- with that, leave it over to Clint to talk about capital.

謝謝。我會先講一點，然後把部分細節交給 Clint。但在未來 5 年，我們確實預期資本支出（CapEx）趨勢會下降。隨著 K3 結束，成長型資本支出肯定會下降。但同樣地，作為我們資本配置的一部分，我們確實預期會隨時間推移再投資於業務。因此我們會進行一些再投資。那麼我就把時間交給 Clint 來談資本。

Thanks, Joc. Like Joc said, I think over the next 5 years, we would expect CapEx to trend lower. Certainly, K3 -- the K3 investment will be ramping down and is in the process of ramping down. Also recall that some of the capital investments, particularly over the next 2, 3 years, from a growth standpoint, will be made in extending our reserve down in Florida. We also have had a number of regulatory changes, particularly down in Brazil, around some of our dams. That's going to promote or require some additional spending.

謝謝，Joc。如 Joc 所說，我認為在未來 5 年，我們預期資本支出會呈下降趨勢。當然，K3——K3 的投資將逐步下滑，目前也正處於下滑過程中。也請記得，部分資本投資，特別是在未來 2 到 3 年，就成長面而言，將用於延伸我們在佛羅里達的礦藏儲量。此外，我們也面臨一些監管變更，特別是在巴西，涉及我們部分尾礦壩。這將促使或要求我們增加一些支出。

And one of the things we've also been looking at is we have a number of assets that, over the long term, have been leased. And as we've looked at how core those assets are to our underlying operations, I think there is a portion of those assets that probably make more sense for us to own instead of leasing. And so that also will be part of our CapEx program going forward.

另外我們也在檢視的一件事是，我們有一些資產長期以來是以租賃方式取得。當我們評估這些資產對底層營運的核心程度時，我認為其中有一部分資產，對我們而言可能更適合用「持有」而非「租賃」。因此，這也將成為我們未來資本支出計畫的一部分。

But I think with all of that taken into consideration, certainly, over the next 5 years, we would expect total CapEx to come down. And as Joc said, we'll continue to look for opportunistic investments in the business that are high-returning like the ones that we see today, we'll look for those opportunities to continue to invest as we go forward.

但我認為把所有這些因素都納入考量後，當然，在未來 5 年內，我們預期總資本支出（CapEx）會下降。而且如 Joc 所說，我們將持續尋找在業務中具備高回報的機會性投資，就像我們今天看到的那些一樣；我們會在未來持續尋找這些機會並持續投資。

As a follow-up on this topic, how do we expect to deploy excess capital between incremental debt paydown, share repurchases, dividend policy and the type of growth projects that were just mentioned?

就這個主題追問一下，我們預期會如何在額外資本的運用上，在增加償還債務、庫藏股回購、股利政策，以及剛才提到的那類成長專案之間進行配置？

Thank you. We remain focused on a balanced capital allocation approach between 3 key pillars. First, our balance sheet. We've demonstrated that by paying down $450 million of long-term debt this quarter. We intend to continue to pay down debt to the target of $1 billion over time. In terms of growth investments, we've invested or will have invested $450 million in our business this year, including our spend on K3 and our spend on reserve extensions in Florida.

謝謝。我們仍專注於在 3 個關鍵支柱之間採取均衡的資本配置方法。第一，我們的資產負債表。我們已透過本季償還 4.5 億美元長期債務來證明這一點。我們打算隨時間推進，持續償債，朝 10 億美元的目標前進。就成長投資而言，我們今年已投資或將投資 4.5 億美元於我們的業務，包括我們在 K3 的支出，以及我們在佛羅里達延長儲量的支出。

And then finally, the returning capital to shareholders. Here, we've raised our target dividend for the second time by 50% to $0.45 per year in 2022, and we've started a share repurchase program based on an authorization of $1 billion of share repurchases over time. And in that, we've already repurchased approximately 1 million shares on the open market. So we've demonstrated that we continue to use a very balanced approach, and that's what we will do going forward.

最後，是回饋股東的資本。在這方面，我們第二次將 2022 年的目標股利提高 50%，至每年 0.45 美元，並且已啟動股票回購計畫，該計畫係基於隨時間推進、總額 10 億美元的回購授權。而且在此之下，我們已在公開市場回購約 100 萬股。因此我們已證明我們持續採用非常均衡的方法，而這也將是我們未來會持續採取的做法。

Thank you. That concludes the prepared portion of this event. I would now like to open the line to Q&A.

謝謝。以上為本次活動的預先準備內容。我現在想開放電話線進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of John Roberts from UBS.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 John Roberts。

Maybe, Joc, talk a little bit about more of your capital return strategy. And do you have a targeted dividend yield that you want to get to?

Joc，也許請你多談一點你們的資本回饋策略。你們是否有想達到的目標股利殖利率？

Thanks, John. Let me start by saying our capital return strategy is based on 2 pieces we expect. We expect to be giving a regular target dividend that is affordable through the cycle. One of the things as a cyclical we want to be careful of is that we don't put out a dividend too early that we may have to change if the market completely changes. So we are looking at affordability of the dividend.

謝謝，John。我先說明，我們的資本回饋策略是基於我們預期的兩個面向。我們預期會提供一個可在景氣循環中負擔得起的、固定的目標股利。作為一個具循環性的產業，我們需要謹慎的一點是，不要太早推出一個股利水準，因為若市場完全改變，我們可能不得不調整。因此我們會著重於股利的可負擔性。

And beyond that, we're looking at methods like share repurchases to continue to reward shareholders or their holding our shares and for investing with us. So we do expect not to have a huge dividend that's necessarily targeted as a percent, but one that is well affordable -- conservatively affordable through the cycle and augmented by share repurchases. Clint, did you want to add anything to that?

除此之外，我們也會透過像股票回購這類方式，持續回饋股東，感謝他們持有我們的股票並投資我們。因此，我們預期不會設定一個非常高、且必然以百分比為目標的股利；而是設定一個在景氣循環中保守且可負擔的股利，並以股票回購加以補充。Clint，你想補充什麼嗎？

No, I think that's right, Joc. I think we look at the return of capital to shareholders in the form of an affordable dividend supplemented by share repurchases and what does that program look like in total, maintaining a level of fixed return as well as a level of flexibility as we go forward.

不，我認為你說得對，Joc。我想我們看待回饋股東的方式，是以可負擔的股利為基礎，並以股票回購作為補充；同時也會看整體計畫的樣貌，在維持一定程度的固定回報之餘，也保有未來推進時的彈性。

I will reemphasize, John, though, that we do expect to move that dividend as our earnings potential grows and our -- some of our internal programs come to fruition.

不過我想再次強調，John，隨著我們的獲利潛力提升，以及我們的一些內部計畫逐步開花結果，我們確實預期會調升股利。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson from Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Chris Parkinson。

Great. On the potash fronts, can you just quickly discuss the evolution of your order books for spot markets, just given the current demand dynamics where you already indicated inventories were? And how that ultimately sets up Canpotex for future contract negotiations?

很好。在鉀肥方面，考量到你們已指出庫存目前所在水位、以及當前需求動態，能否請你們快速談談現貨市場訂單簿的演變？以及這最終將如何影響 Canpotex 未來的合約談判？

Okay. Thanks, Chris. Yes. So where are we at with respect to our order book. I'm going to throw this over to Jenny in a second. But let me say, first of all, demand is very good. You've probably recently heard Canpotex fully committed for quarter 4. We're probably at least 90% committed and priced for quarter 4, which really sets us up for a real strong position as we move into 2022.

好的。謝謝，Chris。是的。那麼我們的訂單簿目前狀況如何？我等一下會把這題交給 Jenny。但我先說，首先，需求非常強勁。你可能最近聽到 Canpotex 在第四季已完全滿單。我們第四季大概至少有 90% 已承諾並完成定價，這讓我們在邁入 2022 年時處於非常有利的位置。

And in terms of Canpotex and contract negotiations to the major national contracts, if you will, it also sets us up very well for that. There's a lot of talk about early contract negotiations with China. That hasn't started. But again, we don't really need that in the near term. So I think time is on our side, not the buyer side in this case. Jenny, do you want to talk a little bit about that allocation?

就 Canpotex 與主要國家級合約（如果你這麼稱呼）的談判而言，這也讓我們處於非常有利的狀態。市場上有很多關於與中國提前進行合約談判的討論。那尚未開始。但同樣地，短期內我們並不真的需要那個。所以我認為在這個情況下，時間站在我們這邊，而不是買方那邊。Jenny，你要不要談談一些配貨情況？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Joc. We -- for both North America and CapEx, we basically have fully committed for the fourth quarter in 2021. Canpotex has started sales into Q1 and which basically are going to reflect the latest spot market prices. So you will see a lag between the benchmark price, as you are saying today and versus the realized prices, which is likely going to be reflected in Q1. So that's basically the order book standpoint.

好的，當然。謝謝，Joc。我們——就北美與 CapEx 而言——基本上在 2021 年第四季已完全承諾。Canpotex 已開始銷售到第一季，而這基本上將反映最新的現貨市場價格。因此你會看到基準價格（如你所說的今天）與實現價格之間存在時間落差，而這很可能會在第一季反映出來。以上基本上就是訂單簿的觀點。

In terms of the market situation, the inventory level in the contract market in India, it is 60% lower than the same time of last year. In the case of China, that is over 25% lower than the same time of last year. So with this low inventory situation, we believe that the contract settlement will be needed for this market earlier than all of the previous years. Like Joc mentioned, we don't need this market, but we see that from a market demand point of view, we won't need to have earlier settlement than the previous years.

就市場情況而言，印度合約市場的庫存水位較去年同期低 60%。中國的情況則是較去年同期低超過 25%。在這樣的低庫存情況下，我們相信合約結算將會比以往任何一年更早成為市場需要。如 Joc 所提到，我們不需要這個市場，但從市場需求的角度來看，我們不會需要比以往年度更早結算。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Piken from Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken。

Yes. Just wanted to get a little bit of a sense for where we are in Brazil. There's been some talk about the logistics and the ability to get product into Brazil. I mean I guess from your perspective, given that you have some in-market production and some of these challenges bringing product in, the higher freight rates, like how are the net puts and takes? And do you think the farmers are going to get enough fertilizer to be able to plant the premium crop moving forward a couple of months from now.

是的。我只是想更了解一下我們在巴西目前的狀況。市場上有一些關於物流以及將產品運進巴西能力的討論。我的意思是，從你們的角度來看，考量你們有部分在地生產、以及把產品運進來的這些挑戰、較高的運費率等，淨影響（利弊得失）如何？而你們認為農民是否能取得足夠的肥料，以便在接下來幾個月種植高價作物？

Okay. Thanks, Michael. And I think you've hit the nail on the head yourself. We have a great logistics advantage, and that was one of the key benefits of investing in country in Brazil. We are -- we have ownership or part ownership of a port in Paranagua and access to a port in Santos that really gives us an opportunity to get product into Brazil much more effectively than others. And then, of course, in-country production, where we save not only the ocean freight, but the rail or truck freight from the coast.

好的。謝謝，Michael。我想你自己已經一語中的。我們有很大的物流優勢，而這也是我們投資巴西在地的一項關鍵效益。我們——我們擁有或部分擁有巴拉那瓜（Paranagua）的一座港口，並可使用桑托斯（Santos）的一座港口，這確實讓我們有機會比其他人更有效地把產品運進巴西。當然還有在地生產，我們不僅省下海運運費，也省下從沿海到內陸的鐵路或卡車運費。

So all of this logistics restrictions are actually working to our competitive advantage right now compared to others who would sell at the coast or -- and others who would have to come in through public ports. So we feel we're in a really good position there. Overall, Brazil will be tight for fertilizers, particularly, I guess, as we look forward, there could be some -- with any restrictions on the Belarusians, there could be some restrictions on getting the product to Brazil.

因此，所有這些物流限制，實際上相較於那些在沿海銷售、或——以及那些必須透過公共港口進口的競爭對手而言，現在正對我們形成競爭優勢。所以我們覺得在那方面我們處於非常有利的位置。整體而言，巴西的肥料供應將會偏緊，特別是我想，往前看，如果對白俄羅斯方面有任何限制，可能也會對將產品運往巴西造成一些限制。

And of course, ocean freight has at least probably doubled. So -- but that's going to affect everybody equally. And it does come into our overall calculation of the economics for the Brazilian farmers. But at this stage, as Jenny mentioned earlier, we believe their economics are still quite strong.

當然，海運運費至少可能已經翻倍。所以——但這會同樣影響所有人。而且這也會納入我們對巴西農民整體經濟性的計算。但在這個階段，如同 Jenny 先前提到的，我們認為他們的經濟性仍然相當強勁。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson。

Yes. Joc, can I maybe follow up on Brazil. And really, it's 2 parts. One, on the affordability point. There's been some pretty notable comments from some of the grower and industry associations there, telling farmers not to apply fertilizer at these price levels. Is your view that, that just is not going to have a material impact on actual consumption and offtake? And then second, on your distribution business, and this is more for '22, you talked about a little bit some slowdown in demand or more flat demand next year in your market outlook is in that scenario. And if prices ever did correct, how do we think about the profitability of the distribution business in a falling price environment?

是的。Joc，我可以就巴西再追問一下嗎？其實分成兩個部分。第一，關於可負擔性。當地一些種植戶與產業協會有相當引人注目的評論，告訴農民在這樣的價格水準下不要施用肥料。你的看法是，這不會對實際消費量與提貨量（offtake）造成實質影響嗎？第二，關於你們的通路／分銷業務，這比較是針對 2022 年，你在市場展望中提到明年需求可能會稍微放緩或更趨平坦。如果價格真的回檔，我們該如何看待在價格下跌環境中分銷業務的獲利能力？

Okay. Thanks. Well, let me start with affordability. Again, with the rise in commodity prices and the Brazilian currency devaluation over the last couple of years, the Brazilian farmers had the benefit of extremely good profitability. Now that has certainly decreased this year. And because of rising not just fertilizer, but fuel prices, seed prices, everything has gone up. And so not surprisingly, it squeezed them more than they're used to.

好的。謝謝。我先從可負擔性談起。同樣地，隨著商品價格上漲，以及過去幾年巴西貨幣貶值，巴西農民曾享有極佳的獲利能力。而今年這確實已經下降。並且因為不只是肥料，燃料價格、種子價格，所有東西都上漲了。所以不意外地，這對他們造成的擠壓比他們以往習慣的更大。

However, I mean, our own belief is farmers like to farm. They're not going to sacrifice yield by not fertilizing, that just is not a good economic solution to the problem. A matter of fact, if anything, that would exacerbate their profitability issues. So we think that, that will continue as normal. Do we expect growth to be as strong in the next year or so? No, we would expect that growth would be more moderated than it has been. And a matter of fact, our longer-term growth numbers, we're looking at that being slightly lower than what the history has been.

不過，我們自己的看法是，農民喜歡務農。他們不會因為不施肥而犧牲產量，那在經濟上並不是解決問題的好方法。事實上，如果真那樣做，反而會讓他們的獲利問題更嚴重。所以我們認為一切會如常持續。我們是否預期未來一年左右的成長會一樣強勁？不，我們預期成長會比過去更為溫和。而且事實上，從長期來看，我們的成長數字也在評估，可能會略低於過去的歷史水準。

But overall, we think that it will continue. And Brazil will continue to be a great market and ultimately will be one of the big red baskets for the world. In terms of our distribution business, I think we have a very strong customer base. We are well respected in the market. Our brand has a very good name down there. Plus, we have great growth in our MicroEssentials, which is a good pull for that market. So they want our products specifically.

但整體而言，我們認為這會持續下去。巴西將持續是一個很棒的市場，最終也會成為全球主要的糧食產區之一。就我們的分銷業務而言，我認為我們擁有非常強的客戶基礎。我們在市場上備受尊重。我們的品牌在當地口碑很好。此外，我們的 MicroEssentials 成長很快，對那個市場有很好的拉動效果。因此他們特別想要我們的產品。

So we have a very stable customer base. So even in a declining market, I would expect we would do as well or better than any of the others in that situation. So I worry less about the margins in distribution. They're very good right now, but I suspect we'll be able to keep those over time.

所以我們有非常穩定的客戶基礎。因此即便在市場下行時，我預期我們在那種情況下也會做得跟其他人一樣好，甚至更好。所以我對分銷的毛利率比較不擔心。目前毛利率非常好，但我猜我們隨時間推移仍能維持。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America. Our next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne。我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場（BMO Capital Markets）的 Joel Jackson。

Maybe a longer-term question. Obviously, LFP is taking off more in the capital market to resurge in the last few years. Can you give us a sense of where you think LFP could be in 2030 in terms of incremental demand for either phosphoric acid or MAP, and I believe like companies like Prayon, Nutrien, Israel Chemicals are the big leader in the purified phos acid market. Do you need to upgrade some of your phos acid production? What would it cost? And what are you looking at doing?

也許是一個較長期的問題。顯然，LFP 近幾年在資本市場的熱度再度升溫、發展更快。你能否讓我們了解，你認為到 2030 年，LFP 對磷酸或 MAP 的增量需求可能會到什麼程度？另外我相信像 Prayon、Nutrien、Israel Chemicals 這些公司是高純磷酸市場的主要領導者。你們是否需要升級部分磷酸產能？成本會是多少？你們正在評估要做些什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Joel. Well, I'm going to turn this over to Jenny to talk about the growth of the lithium iron phosphate battery market. But you may be aware that I think Elon Musk just committed to using the -- those batteries in the cars, the Model 3 in China and has talked about building an LFP plant here in the U.S. So there's no question that is coming on.

是的。謝謝，Joel。我會把這題交給 Jenny，請她談談磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）電池市場的成長。不過你可能也知道，我想 Elon Musk 剛承諾在中國的 Model 3 車款使用——這類電池，並且也談到要在美國這裡興建一座 LFP 工廠。所以毫無疑問，這股趨勢正在到來。

In terms of purified phos acid, you are absolutely right, and we are absolutely doing research into how we can create purified phosphoric acid, although I would say it's a little early for us to tell you either the cost or the capital. But Jenny, can talk to you about the LFP market.

至於高純磷酸，你說得完全正確，我們也確實正在研究如何生產高純磷酸；不過我會說，現在要我們告訴你成本或資本支出還稍早了一點。但 Jenny 可以跟你談談 LFP 市場。

Sure, Joc. Actually, Joel, the increasing demand of LFP battery has been one of the drivers changing the Chinese phosphate industry. This year alone, we are saying around 300,000 tonnes of purified phos acid already shifted to LFP, which equals to 0.5 million tonnes of DAP. And I saw some questions related to the production of phosphate fertilizer into 2022, we believe the trend of shifting P205 to LFP will be the trend and will be the structure change. And that will profoundly change the phosphate industry in China.

好的，Joc。其實，Joel，LFP 電池需求的增加一直是推動中國磷酸鹽產業變化的驅動因素之一。僅今年，我們看到大約 30 萬噸的高純磷酸已經轉向 LFP，用量相當於 50 萬噸的 DAP。而且我也看到一些與 2022 年磷肥生產相關的問題；我們相信，將 P2O5 轉向 LFP 的趨勢會持續，並將成為結構性的改變。這將深刻地改變中國的磷酸鹽產業。

Coming into the U.S., as Joc mentioned, we have seen the announcement made by Tesla, are working with some other parties of building up LFP factories in the U.S. and building up the U.S. owned supply chain. We are looking into this area as well. So as the major phosphate producers, like Joc mentioned, we are doing our own study. This is going to be a long-term driver in terms of phosphate industry, starting from China, and we believe it will have impact around the growth, especially in the U.S.

回到美國，如 Joc 所提到的，我們已看到特斯拉（Tesla）的公告，正與其他一些夥伴合作在美國建設 LFP 工廠，並建立由美國主導的供應鏈。我們也在研究這個領域。因此，作為主要的磷酸鹽生產商，如 Joc 所說，我們正在進行自己的研究。這將是磷酸鹽產業的長期驅動因素，從中國開始，我們相信它也會影響成長，尤其是在美國。

Our next question comes from the line of Adrien Tamagno from Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Adrien Tamagno。

I have 2 questions on the potash SKUs. First, since you're restocking Colonsay, how should we think about the cash cost of production per tonne target for 2023? And can you just please recall me the run rate of K3 expected for 2022 annually?

我有兩個關於鉀肥 SKU 的問題。第一，既然你們正在補庫 Colonsay，那我們應該如何看待 2023 年每噸生產現金成本目標？另外，你能否再提醒我，K3 在 2022 年預期的年化運轉率（run rate）是多少？

Okay. Thanks, Adrien. Let me start with Colonsay. We expect Colonsay to ramp up to its 100,000 tonnes per month as we mentioned in the earlier comments. At that point, now, I guess, the cost of Colonsay will start coming down. I mean, right now, we've been going through a transition. Overall, I would expect Colonsay to make up about 15% -- 10%, 15% of our total production. And as such, I guess, it's going to move our cost maybe $4, $5 a tonne overall. So it's not a big cost changer, and that will be offset by as we move.

好的。謝謝你，Adrien。我先從 Colonsay 談起。我們預期 Colonsay 會如同先前評論所提到的，爬坡提升至每月 100,000 公噸。到那個時點，我想 Colonsay 的成本就會開始下降。我的意思是，現在我們正處於轉換期。整體而言，我預期 Colonsay 約占我們總產量的 15%——10% 到 15%。因此，我想它可能會讓我們的整體成本變動約每噸 4 到 5 美元。所以它不是一個很大的成本改變因素，而且隨著我們推進，這會被抵銷。

Esterhazy K3 tonnes up, but they'll really start coming in at lower cost. So overall, I don't see a really significant increase in cost because of Colonsay, the overall market because of the offset of lower cost at K3. You asked about the 2022 ramp-up of K3. Again, as I mentioned earlier, we've just handed over the south shaft hoisting to operations. And so we have, I believe, 3 or 4 miners left to build, which takes a couple of months each.

Esterhazy K3 的產量（公噸數）會上升，但它們真正開始進來時會是較低成本。所以整體來看，由於 K3 較低成本的抵銷，我不認為 Colonsay 會造成成本的顯著上升，對整體市場也是如此。你問到 2022 年 K3 的爬坡。同樣地，如我先前提到的，我們剛把南井提升（hoisting）系統移交給營運端。因此我相信還剩 3 或 4 台採礦機需要建造，每台大約需要幾個月。

And then we'll be up at full production on K3 by the end of the -- basically by the end of the first quarter. So what you'll see now as we go forward is a slow move up to full production at K3, which will mean that our K1 and K2 mills will be fully utilized by the end of the third quarter, giving us approximately million tonnes of new capacity.

然後我們會在第一季末——基本上在第一季末——讓 K3 達到滿產。所以接下來你會看到的是，K3 會逐步、緩慢地提升到滿產，這也意味著到第三季末，我們的 K1 和 K2 磨礦廠將會被充分利用，為我們帶來約 100 萬公噸的新產能。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne。

Yes. Sorry about my technical problem earlier. I wanted to drill in a little bit on where do you see the greatest returns on investing new capital in growth? Would it be in Brazil? And if so, would it be to expand production capabilities or extending potash mine life or something on the end of being more productive in the country? Or would it be to invest in more distribution assets to expand your network throughout the country.

是的。抱歉我先前有技術問題。我想更深入了解一下，你們認為把新增資本投入成長時，哪裡能帶來最高報酬？會是在巴西嗎？如果是的話，是用來擴充產能、延長鉀肥礦的礦山壽命，或是在提升該國生產力的某個面向？或者是投資更多通路/配送資產，以擴大你們在全國的網路。

Yes. Well, thanks, Steve, and we're glad we got you back. We were worried about you. So as we look at new capital and you asked what -- how we would prioritize it, I guess there's probably a couple of areas that I'd like to highlight. We're not there yet, but we are coming close to where our MicroEssentials production capabilities are matched with our sales book. And so it won't be too long until we'll be looking at MicroEssentials expansion.

是的。嗯，謝謝你，Steve，我們也很高興你回來了。我們剛才還擔心你呢。談到新增資本、以及你問到我們會如何排序優先順序，我想大概有幾個面向我想特別強調。我們還沒到那一步，但我們正接近 MicroEssentials 的生產能力與我們的銷售訂單（sales book）相匹配的狀態。因此再過不久，我們就會開始評估 MicroEssentials 的擴產。

And right now, we're asking ourselves a question, how and where do we expand MicroEssentials? Do you expand it in North America? And you still -- the growth is still in Brazil, but is it more efficient to expand it in North America or do you expand it in Brazil? So that question is being asked. Another area of -- we think growth opportunity, and you mentioned it, is distribution in Brazil, whether that be organic or whether that be a purchase, we think there's good opportunity in Brazil. It's a relatively lower capital -- lower cost, lower capital intensity. Though we see that as good, we've looked at a couple of opportunities to grow production in Brazil. And then the other one, I would say right now, we're extending our reserves in Florida. That might not increase our production, but it certainly extends the mine life and the quality of the product as we go forward.

而目前我們在問自己一個問題：我們要如何、以及在哪裡擴充 MicroEssentials？是要在北美擴產嗎？雖然成長仍在巴西，但在北美擴產更有效率，還是應該在巴西擴產？所以我們正在討論這個問題。另一個我們認為有成長機會的領域——你也提到了——是巴西的通路/配送，不論是有機成長或透過併購，我們都認為巴西有很好的機會。這相對是較低資本——較低成本、較低資本密集度。雖然我們認為這很不錯，我們也看過幾個在巴西擴大生產的機會。另外一項，我會說目前我們正在延伸佛羅里達的儲量。這可能不會提高產量，但確實能延長礦山壽命，並在未來提升產品品質。

So between MicroEssentials, reserves, extensions, we're not really looking at expanding potash as, I think, might have been the one you were asking. I just don't see that being required at this stage as we've just started Colonsay. So those are kind of the areas we're looking at, but they have to be high return, fairly quick payback. The one other one I just want to mention is there's -- I think there's a real opportunity investing in technology. So our next-gen transformation work, we think is going to pay back really well. And I'd encourage any of you to come and see some of the work we're doing around automation because it's great. So new products, distribution, reserves and automation would be the kind of the summary.

所以在 MicroEssentials、儲量延伸之間，我們並沒有真的在看擴大鉀肥產能——我想那可能是你在問的方向。我只是覺得在這個階段沒有那個必要，因為我們才剛啟動 Colonsay。所以這些大概是我們在看的領域，但它們必須是高報酬、回收期相對短。另外我還想提一點：我認為投資科技有很大的機會。所以我們的下一代轉型工作，我們認為會帶來很好的回報。我也鼓勵各位來看看我們在自動化方面做的一些工作，因為真的很棒。所以總結來說，就是新產品、通路/配送、儲量，以及自動化。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong。

I just wanted to go back on fertilizer affordability and any impacts on fertilizer demand. And just looking at it from a different angle, if we do see any sort of reduction in application rates or anything like that, could you talk about what that might do to crop yields? And how -- what does that do to crop balance sheet projections going out into the next couple of years?

我想回到肥料可負擔性以及對肥料需求的任何影響。換個角度來看，如果我們真的看到施用量下降或類似情況，你能否談談這可能會對作物單產造成什麼影響？以及——這會如何影響未來幾年的作物供需表（balance sheet）預估？

Yes. I'm not sure I didn't quite catch the last piece of that, Andrew. Do you want to just maybe repeat the last piece of that about...

是的。Andrew，我不太確定我是否完全聽清楚你最後那一段。你能不能把最後那部分再重複一下，關於……

Yes. I just want to understand like if we do see a reduction in application rates because that's what people are concerned about today, what could that do to your crop balance sheet projections and crop yields and what would that mean for crop pricing going forward?

好的。我只是想了解，如果我們真的看到施用量下降——因為這是大家今天在擔心的——那會如何影響你們對作物供需表的預估與作物單產？以及這對未來作物價格意味著什麼？

Yes. So let me start by saying today, affordability is okay. I think we all are kind of on the same page there. And I think the big question for most is, well, what happens if affordability gets to a point where people start rationing fertilizers. And I could easily see where marginal crop land, particularly here in the U.S. or something, may not get planted or whatever.

是的。我先說，今天的可負擔性是可以的。我想我們大家在這點上看法一致。而對多數人來說最大的問題是：如果可負擔性惡化到人們開始配給/限量使用肥料，會發生什麼事？我很容易想像邊際耕地，特別是在美國這邊，可能就不會被種植之類的。

But what I would expect to have happened in that case? I mean, today, we're looking at under 16% carryout for foreign. So stock-to-use ratio of under 16%, which is down to, what, a month? And so if you're looking at a month of supply, any kind of disruption or anything is going to cause a run-up in the price of corn or soybeans or whatever it is. And so you look around the world right now, palm oil prices more than doubled. Corn prices are sitting in the $5.50 range or something like that. Bean prices are good. So -- and the availability of all of them is low.

但在那種情況下，我預期會發生什麼？我的意思是，今天我們看到期末結轉（carryout）低於 16%。所以庫存使用比（stock-to-use ratio）低於 16%，這相當於什麼，大概一個月？因此如果你只有一個月的供應量，任何形式的干擾或任何事情都會導致玉米或黃豆或不管是哪一種作物的價格上漲。所以你看看現在全球，棕櫚油價格已經翻倍以上。玉米價格大概在每蒲式耳 5.50 美元左右之類的水準。黃豆價格也不錯。所以——而且它們的供應量都偏低。

So it's kind of a precarious spot for crops. So if people do plant less and that gets even tighter, I would expect you could start seeing price spikes. Likewise, if they plant more, the price may moderate, but then to do that, they're going to have to use more fertilizers. So in either case, I don't see a huge downside going forward from an affordability perspective because to get good yields, you need the fertilizer, and we need the crops. So you put the 2 together and you say, one of 2 things has got to happen. You've either got to use a lot of fertilizer on a few acres or you've got to plant a lot of acres. In either case, we're -- we should be in pretty good shape going forward.

所以對作物來說，這算是一個相當不穩定的處境。因此，如果大家真的少種一些、供應變得更吃緊，我預期你可能會開始看到價格飆升。同樣地，如果他們多種一些，價格可能會趨於緩和，但要做到這點，他們就得使用更多肥料。所以無論哪種情況，從可負擔性的角度來看，我不認為未來會有很大的下行空間，因為要有好的產量就需要肥料，而我們也需要作物。把這兩者放在一起，你就會說，兩件事必然得發生其中之一。不是在少數英畝上大量施肥，就是得種植很多英畝。不管哪種情況，我們——未來應該都會處於相當不錯的狀態。

Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar from Citi. (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的 P.J. Juvekar。（接線員指示）下一個問題來自豐業銀行（Scotiabank）的 Ben Isaacson。

There's been so much excitement about DAP and MAP that we haven't talked about MicroEssentials or your value-added phosphate or performance products in quite some time. You did mention that a little bit. I was hoping you could dig in a little bit and talk about how is market share in the U.S. and Brazil? Are you seeing end users downgrade to lower-quality commodity phosphates? And can you talk about the -- I believe the patents come off in 2021 and 2022. Can you talk about what that means for Mosaic? And are you working on new product development?

大家對 DAP 和 MAP 的討論熱度很高，以至於我們有一段時間沒有談到 MicroEssentials 或你們的加值磷肥／高效能產品了。你確實稍微提到了一點。我希望你能再深入一些，談談在美國與巴西的市占率如何？你們是否看到終端用戶降級、改用較低品質的大宗磷酸鹽產品？另外也請談談——我記得專利會在 2021 與 2022 年到期。能否說明這對 Mosaic 意味著什麼？以及你們是否正在進行新產品開發？

Yes. Thanks, Ben. In terms of market share, I guess, right now, MicroEssentials is amounting to about 35% of all of the phosphate product we make. So it's definitely become a very big piece of our overall market. In terms of market share, I guess, in the U.S., it probably be around 10%, 20%? So yes, so we're probably up to about 20% in the U.S., which would be about 2 million tonnes a year. And we're probably approaching 1.5 million tonnes in Brazil, so it's coming up to a similar size market, I guess, both of 15% and is still growing strong in Brazil.

是的。謝謝你，Ben。就市占率而言，我想目前 MicroEssentials 約占我們所有磷肥產品產量的 35%。所以它確實已成為我們整體市場中非常重要的一部分。至於市占率，我想在美國大概是 10%、20%？所以是的，我們在美國大概已提升到約 20%，約每年 200 萬噸。而在巴西我們大概接近 150 萬噸，因此我想兩邊市場規模差不多，市占率大約都是 15%，而且在巴西仍然強勁成長。

So in both cases, I think we're going to -- as I mentioned earlier, we're going to run up against production limitations before we run up against market limitations. In terms of the actual patent on it, I mean there's 2 aspects to that. Yes, we are working on ways to adapt the product to extend the patent and whatnot. But what we're seeing is there's a lot of copycats, but nobody has been yet able to make a product that has the same agronomic benefits, that has the same quality and certainly has the same reputation of 10-plus years of good results.

所以在這兩種情況下，我認為——如我先前提到的，我們會先碰到產能限制，而不是市場限制。至於實際的專利，我的意思是，這有兩個面向。是的，我們正在研究調整產品、延長專利等方法。但我們看到有很多仿製者，不過至今還沒有人能做出在農藝效益上相同、品質相同，當然也沒有同樣擁有 10 年以上良好成果口碑的產品。

So, so far, it's been very successful, continues to be very successful. Nobody has really penetrated that market very much from us. So we're very positive going forward. In terms of some of our other performance products, we continue to do market development, as we've talked about before. Our Aspire product is growing well. It seems to be quite successful and particularly in certain markets like Brazil and some of those markets, it has been quite successful. And we're continuing to find opportunities to modify and work on potash and phosphate, our performance products that can really change the market.

所以，到目前為止它非常成功，而且仍然非常成功。基本上還沒有人真正從我們手上大幅打入那個市場。因此我們對未來非常正面。至於我們其他一些高效能產品，我們持續進行市場開發，如同我們之前談過的。我們的 Aspire 產品成長良好。看起來相當成功，尤其是在巴西等某些市場，表現非常出色。我們也持續尋找機會，去改良並投入於鉀肥與磷肥等高效能產品，這些產品確實能改變市場。

There are no further questions at this time. Now I turn the call back over to Joc O’Rourke for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我把電話交回給 Joc O’Rourke 作結語。

Well, I know you folks have all had a very busy morning of listening to fertilizer companies. So thank you very much for your participation. And let me end by saying, here at Mosaic, we've just completed a very strong quarter. And as I look forward, I see that momentum continuing through quarter 4 of 2021 and well into 2022.

我知道各位今天早上都很忙，聽了很多肥料公司的電話會議。所以非常感謝各位的參與。最後我想說，在 Mosaic，我們剛完成了一個非常強勁的季度。展望未來，我看到這股動能會延續到 2021 年第 4 季，並一路延伸到 2022 年。

Now clearly, strong fertilizer and agriculture markets are providing some pretty good tailwinds for us. But we're also realizing the bottom line benefit of our own work and the long-term work we are doing to grow our business and to transform our cost structure. We expect to continue to build momentum as we finish the year and well into 2022, as I say, and we will maintain our cost and capital discipline throughout.

很明顯，強勁的肥料與農業市場為我們帶來了相當不錯的順風。但我們也正在實現我們自身努力所帶來的獲利貢獻，以及我們為了擴大業務、轉型成本結構而進行的長期工作所帶來的效益。如我所說，我們預期在完成今年並進入 2022 年的過程中，將持續累積動能，同時我們也會全程維持成本與資本的紀律。

So with that, thank you for joining us, and please have a great, safe day.

那麼，感謝各位加入我們，也祝各位有個美好且平安的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。